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Hall of Merit
— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best

Monday, April 09, 2007

1997 Ballot (Elect Three)

Our 100th election! Yahoo!

Prominent new candidates: Dwight Evans, Dave Parker , Ken Griffey Sr. and Gary Templeton.

Top-ten returnees: Edd Roush, Nellie Fox, Jake Beckley, Pete Browning, Rollie Fingers, Tony Perez and Cannonball Dick Redding.

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: April 09, 2007 at 01:44 PM | 149 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: April 09, 2007 at 01:51 PM (#2329734)
My 100th ballot!

I use Win Shares as the base for my ranking system, though I am now using a modified version (any negative values are converted into zeroes) of BRAR, FRAR and PRAR for the NA.

I am integrating the conclusions made by DERA with Win Shares for all pitchers.

I do place (to a certain degree) domination at one's position during the player's era. That doesn't mean that domination-by-default will necessarily help you though (Gil Hodges may have been the best first baseman of his era, but he wont make my ballot).

1) Bus Clarkson-SS/3B (n/e): Looks like the best shortstop of the Forties, which is surprising to me. IMO, Eric would have to be totally off with his projections for Clarkson not to be near the top of everybody's ballot. Shave off 50 WS from his MLE and he still comfortably belongs.

2) Roger Bresnahan-C/CF (1): Greatest catcher of the Deadball Era not named Santop. The poor man's Buck Ewing (Johnny Kling was the poor man's Charlie Bennett) is still good enough to be here on my ballot. Slightly better than Noisy behind the plate, but the Duke played longer and at other positions. Best major league catcher for 1905, 1906, and 1908. Best major league centerfielder for 1903.

3) Charley Jones-LF/CF (3): He was playing a more difficult position than the one that it evolved into. I gave him a little more credit for his (unfairly) blacklisted years. Best major league leftfielder for 1877, 1879 and 1884. Best AA centerfielder for 1883. Best AA leftfielder for 1885 (close to being the best in the majors).

4) Bucky Walters-P (4): The guy had a nice peak, fairly long career, and could hit. Best ML pitcher of 1939 (extremely close in 1940). Best NL pitcher of 1940 and 1944.

5) Mickey Welch-P (5): Yeah, pitching was different back then, but he still distinguished himself regardless. Best major league pitcher for 1885.

6) Pete Browning-CF/LF (6): Gotta love the peak! Best major league second baseman for 1882. Best major league leftfielder for 1883 (close in 1890). Best AA centerfielder for 1885. Best major league centerfielder for 1887.

7) Vic Willis-P (7): Willis pitched a ton of innings at an above-average rate for a long enough time for his era. Best major league pitcher for 1899. Best NL pitcher for 1901.

8) Gavvy Cravath-RF (8): I'm finally buying the arguments for him. I'm giving him MLE credit for 1908-11. Possibly would have been the best ML right fielder for 1910. Best NL right fielder for 1913 and 1914. Best ML right fielder for 1915, 1916, and 1917.

9) Alejandro Oms-CF (9): Thanks to Chris' work, another gem has been uncovered. He should gather more and more support over the next few "years."

10) Bob Elliott-3B/RF (10): He could hit, field, and didn't have a short career. Best ML third baseman for 1943, 1944, 1947, 1948, and close in 1950. Best NL third baseman for 1949 and 1950.
   2. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: April 09, 2007 at 01:53 PM (#2329737)
11) Hugh Duffy-CF/LF/RF (11): "Only" the third best centerfielder of the '90s, but that position was very strong for that decade. Best major league right fielder for 1890 and 1891. Best major league centerfielder for 1892, 1893 and 1894.

12) Pie Traynor-3B (12): Back on my ballot after a "decade." Best white third baseman of his time (though J. Wilson and Beckwith was better). Best major league third baseman for 1923 (Beckwith was better), 1925, 1927, 1929 (Beckwith was better) and 1932.

13) Burleigh Grimes-P (13): Pitched for a long time behind crappy teams and defenses. Not a bad peak, too Best NL pitcher for 1921 and 1929.

14) Bobby Bonds-RF/CF (n/e): First time on my ballot, his prime finally gives him a shot. Best ML right fielder for 1970. Best NL right fielder for 1973.

15) Billy Nash-3B (n/e): Back on the ballot after a long absence. Possibly the best defensive third baseman of the 19th century (and not too bad offensively). Great arm and a master of handling bunts. Captain for the Beaneaters for five seasons (1891-1895; thanks to Cliff Blau for uncovering the other three years of his captaincy) and the highest paid player on the team after the Players' League folded. He was never the same after a beaning in 1896 (he developed vertigo).  Best ML third baseman for 1888, 1892, and 1893. Best NL third baseman for 1887 and 1889. Best PL third baseman for 1890.         

Fox, Beckley, Roush, Perez, Redding and Fingers all exist in my top-35, but they just fall short.

Not opposed to Dwight Evans going in, but I'm not crazy about it in his first year of eligibility.
   3. karlmagnus Posted: April 09, 2007 at 02:16 PM (#2329756)
Must be close to a record -- #61 and two off the bottom elected, so not much movement. Dwight Evans a bit better than Rice, esp. in fielding, on edge of ballot. My favorite of the post-Yaz pre-Nomar Sox hitters. Parker significantly below Perez and Staub. Griffey off the bottom.

1. (N/A-9-9-10-7-7-5-5-4-3-5-6-5-3-4-3-4-4-3-2-2-1-1-2-6-4-4-2-1-1-1-3-
1-2-2-1-1-2-2-1-1-2-2-3-1-1-1-1-2-1-3-1-1-2-1-1-2-1-1-2-1-2-1-1-3-1-1-1
-2-2-2-2-3-1-1-1-1-1-1-2-2-2-2-2-1-2-1) Jake Beckley. Better than Sisler (1 point OPS+, 118 hits, more dangerous/difficult fielding position) and we’ve elected Sisler. Paul Waner is a very close comp (it was 37 years till we found one) and it thus makes no sense to have Waner far above Beckley. Significantly longer career than Clemente or Brock when you adjust the schedule, much longer relative to his contemporaries (he was #2 in AB when he retired, and #5 20 years after he retired.) Adjust his 2930 hits to full seasons and he's up there with Nap, above Babe, over 3200 hits, and OPS+ of 125 better than Van Haltren and slightly short of Wheat’s 129. Isolated power .127 vs “slugger” Wheat .135, in a less power-centered era. TB+BB/PA .455, TB+BB/Outs .707. Played for un-famous teams. Better than Keeler, almost as good as Crawford. More than a borderline HOMer, somewhere in the reaches well above the border but below the immortals. Should have been elected 80 “years” ago.

2. (N/A-7-7-6-8-6-6-7-7-6-7-7-7-9-8-7-7-4-5-3-3-3-5-4-4-4-6-4-4-4-5-2-2
-4-4-3-3-5-4-3-2) Addie Joss. I’m now even more convinced I missed him earlier, and that adjusting innings down for dead ball pitchers is illegitimate. 2327 IP at an ERA+ of 142. 160-97 by age 30. If you assume the rest of his career would have been 1800 IP, 120-90 with an ERA+ of 110 (somewhat conservative, assuming you boost his last sick season, though pitchers didn’t last as long as they did later) then 50% credit would put him at 3227IP, 220-142, with ERA+ of 130. 25% credit puts him at 2777 IP, 190-120, with ERA+ of 136. Substantially better than Koufax. OPS+20.

3. (N/A-10-8-7-6-4-3-3-5-9-7-8-6-4-4-4-6-4-5-6-5-4-6-7-6-5-5-6-7-5-5-4-
4-5-4-6-4-4-5-4-4-5-4-4-6-5-5-5-6-7-5-5-6-7-6-5-5-7-5-5-5-6-3-4-7-6-4-4-6-5-4-3) Eddie Cicotte. Only 208-149 and an ERA+ of 123, but 3223 IP, more than Waddell and should get about 25% of the bonus for the 300-win career he should have had (he was, after all, a knuckleballer, who tend to peak late.) Much better than the 20s glut – only loses to Welch on longevity – Newhouser a close comp, but Cicotte had a longer career. Successfully cursed Red Sox AND White Sox for over 8 decades!

4. (N/A-10-9-8-10-11-10-13-12-14-N/A-15-14-13-12-11-10-10-11-9-9
-10-11-10-10-10-11-11-10-9-10-7-8-11-10-8-8-10-9-5-4) Ernie Lombardi. Up a bit more; we’re forgetting him. Berra closely comparable Berra. 2137 hits, normalized to a 130 game season, and an OPS+ of 125 makes him a little better than Schang, but some of it was during the war years and he fielded badly. TB+BB/PA .492, TB+BB/Outs .719., the ratio between the two very low because of strikeouts, I assume. Plus a great nickname!

5. (N/A-14-15-14-13-14-15-14-15-14-15-15-13-12-13-10-11-13-12-10-
11-12-11-6-5) Vern Stephens. Short career – only 1859 hits, but comparing him to Reese he was much better, and not far short of Doerr. TB+BB/PA .508, TB+BB/Outs .756. OPS+ 119 Best season 1944, however. Sliding up ballot.

6. (N/A-12-10-12-10-11-10-7-7-8-9-7-9-13-11-10-11-12-12-11-11-11-
12-12-11-11-12-13-12-15-14-12-14-11-10-11-11-10-12-11-10-9-9-
10-8-8-9-10-9-8-8-10-10-9-8-9-6-7-10-9-7-7-9-8-7-6) Sam Leever. Pity he wasn’t able to start at the normal time; 2 more years would have made him a NB. Only 2660 innings, but was blocked till 27 by the one-league 1890s and having a steady job as a schoolteacher. Believe he needs to be looked at seriously by others, and included in pitcher analysis. Mild plus for high level of moral probity.

7. (N/A-9-8-8-9-10-8-10-9-8-7-8-11-11-10-10-10-11-11-10-9-11-12-
11-14-13-11-13-13-13-13-12-11-14-13-12-11-11-12-10-10-11-12-11
-11-11-13-13-11-10-11-8-9-12-11-9-10-11-12-8-7) Wally Schang. When you normalize his career to 130 game seasons for the first 18 years, as I do for catchers, he gets to 1941 hits, more than Groh at an OPS+ of 117, very similar. Furthermore, TB+BB/PA=.455, TB+BB/Outs=.728, also significantly better than Groh, over very close to the same period. And he was a catcher, more difficult than 3B.

8. (N/A-10-9-8-11-N/A-15-15-14-10-10-11-12-10-12-11-9-8-9-10-10-9-
8-9-10-9-8-7-9-9-8-10-9-8-10-9-8-9-8-8-10-9-8-8-8-9-7-7-8-9-8-7-7-9-9-8-7-8-5-6-9-8-6-6-8-7-9-8) Charley Jones. Short career – only 1,780 normalized hits, even when adjusted to nominal 130-game-played season (but that’s more than Pike, with much less of an adjustment, and Jones too missed two prime seasons.) But OPS+ 149, TB+BB/PA .473, TB+BB/Outs .722, so above Pike and non-CF 90s OF. Down, but just above Browning

9. (N/A-15-N/A-5-4-4-6-10-8-9-7-5-5-5-7-5-6-7-6-6-7-8-7-6-6-7-8-6-6-5-
5-6-5-7-5-5-6-6-5-6-5-5-7-6-6-6-7-8-6-6-7-8-7-6-6-8-6-6-6-7-4-5-8-7-5-5-7-6-10-9) Pete Browning. Recalculating, to adjust ’82 as well as ’83-’92, he had 2,177 “normalized” hits, with no AA discount. However, TB+BB/PA .511, TB+BB/Outs .855. the same as Tiernan, not quite as good as Thompson, but he got no significant boost from the 1893-94 run explosion. Career OPS+162 vs. 146 Thompson and 138 Tiernan, but you have to discount a bit for AA. Also discount for not playing full seasons; the normalized hits should thus be about 1900, so drop him to just above Hondo.

10. (N/A-15-N/A-15-N/A-14-13-14-11-12-14-13-11-13-14-13-11-10) Frank Howard Very slightly better than Kiner – significantly longer career. Underrated by history. OPS+ 142 for 1774 hits. TB+BB/PA .546, TB+BB/Outs .805 in a pitchers’ park and era.
   4. karlmagnus Posted: April 09, 2007 at 02:18 PM (#2329758)
11. (N/A-12-11) Tommy John 288-231, 4710IP@111. Infinitesimally below Sutton, better than Kaat.

12. (N/A-13-12-13-13-12-14-15-12-13-11-11-N/A-11-9-12-12-N/A-15-15-N/A-14-N/A-15-13) George van Haltren. Had slipped too far at #44; we need more 90s stars. TB+BB/PA .469, TB+BB/Outs .765. Back on ballot again.

13. (N/A-15-N/A-14) Rusty Staub. 2716 hits at OPS+124. TB+BB/PA .484, TB+BB/Outs .724. Not quite as good as Beckley, for not quite as long. Back on ballot after short hiatus.

14. (N/A-7-13-11-13-14-14-14-N/A-15-15-15-N/A-14-15-15-15-N/A-
14-N/A-15-15-N/A-15-N/A-14-N/A-15) Hack Wilson. Back on ballot after long hiatus. TB+BB/PA = .588, TB+BB/Outs = .954, OPS+ 144. (he does appear to have known about BB, unlike some others.) Very short career, but quality too good to ignore. OPS+ slightly below Jones, so here he goes.

15. (N/A-11-12-11-11-12-13-14-12-15-15-15-15-N/A) Carl Mays Had slipped down too far – back on ballot after ½ century. 3021 innings at 119, 207-126 and 83 OPS+ Others should look at him more closely.

OFF BALLOT

16. Dwight Evans. Surprised me by being just a little better than Rice, because of his fielding. 2446 hits@127 less than Rice butr TB+BB/PA .531 TB+BB/Outs .807 definitely a touch better, plus a fielding bonus. Will make it onto ballot if the system elects some of my top 15 for a change.

17. (N/A-14-14-N/A) Chuck Klein. Shortish career but very good one. Similar player to Beckwith, beats Hack on career length, but Hack was better. TB+BB/PA .575, TB+BB/Outs .909, but only 2076 hits. OPS+137.

18. Indian Bob Johnson. Very similar career to Klein but infinitesimally less good. TB+BB/PA .569, TB+BB/Outs .890., only 2051 hits. OPS+138

19. (N/A-12) Fred Lynn. Underrated, considerably better than Rice or Hernandez. 1960 hits at 130, but bonus for playing CF. TB+BB/PA .531, TB+BB/Outs .791. Lovely player to watch, and absolutely top-drawer at his best. Should be below rather than above Klein and Johnson, though.

20. Reggie Smith
21. (N/A-14-N/A-15-13-15-N/A-15) Luis Tiant 229-172. 3486 IP at 114. ERA+ a little low, but W/L good. He’s not top tier, but just a little better than Pierce. Big psychic plus for Red Sox affiliation. Looking at Reuschel, a little overplaced so have slipped him down.
22. Bill Madlock.

23. Rick Reuschel. 214-191, 3548IP@114. Tough to put him far from Tiant, who had a better W/L, but I now realized I was overvaluing Tiant a bit because of Red Sox affiliation.

24. (N/A-15-N/A) Alejandro Oms. New MLE OPS+ of 125 moves him down a bit. Shorter career than Beckley, and not quite as valuable, but he was a darn good player nonetheless.

25. Tony Perez. Up a little, closer to Staub. 2732 hits at 122. TB+BB/PA .502, TB+BB/Outs .731.
26. Toby Harrah
27. (15-14-11-12-10-9-6-8-7-7-6-7-6-3-3-3-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-5-4-2-3-2-3-3-
2-3-3-2-2-3-7-5-5-3-2-2-2-4-2-3-3-2-2-4-3-2-2-3-3-4-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-2-2-
3-2-2-3-2-2-4-2-3-2-2-4-2-2-2-4-3-3-3-4-2-2-2-2-N/A) Mickey Welch. Downgraded on consideration of unearned runs. UER were 43.37% of total runs allowed for Mickey, compared to about 40% with all his HOM contemporaries except Galvin (who started earlier, anyway.) Hence his ERA+, his weakness anyway, overstates his value; in spite of 307-210 he was primarily an innings-eater. 4802IP.
28. Ben Taylor.
29. Jim Kaat
30. Orlando Cepeda
31. Norm Cash
32. Jim Rice
33. (N/A-6-5-9-8-9-8-7-10-11-8-9-7-7-6-6-9-9-8-6-6-6-5-4-8-7-9-12-
N/A-14-13-15-N/A) Hugh Duffy.
34. (N/A-12-12-14-N/A) Tony Lazzeri
35. Cesar Cedeno
36. (N/A-14-N/A-15-N/A) Sam Rice
37. Lou Brock
38. Mickey Vernon
39. Thurmon Munson
40. (N/A-13-15-N/A-15-15-N/A) Vic Willis
41. Sal Maglie.
42. (N/A) Burleigh Grimes.
43. (N/A) Heinie Manush
44. Dave Parker. Below both Perez and Staub, about here I think. 2712 hits at 121, TB+BB/PA.500 TB+BB/Outs.721
45. (N/A-9-10-10-13-N/A) Mike Tiernan
46. Bob Elliott
47. (N/A) Dick Lundy
48. (N/A-9-12-11-14-13-14-12-11-12-13-11-11-9-9-13-14-12-14-14-N/A) Levi Meyerle.
49. (12-15-N/A-11-10-12-10-10-9-8-11-12-10-10-8-8-14-15-13-15-15-N/A) Harry Wright.
50. (N/A-10-9-8-7-6-7-8-5-12-10-10-N/A-10-8-11-11-N/A) Jimmy Ryan
51. Gene Tenace
52. Kiki Cuyler
53. Deacon McGuire
54. Jerry Koosman.
55. Boog Powell
56. Ken Singleton.
57. Sal Bando.
58. Jim Fregosi.
59. Jack Quinn
60. Tony Mullane
61. Rollie Fingers. Add 1/3 of his saves and he becomes 228-118 or thereabouts, but on my adjustment (add 50% and subtract 5 ERA+ points) he goes to 2550/114, which isn’t enough.
62. Ron Cey
63. Pie Traynor
64. Jim McCormick
65. Dick Redding. My punt is 3200 innings at 114 ERA+ for a record of 207-159, i.e. same quality as Chris but a little shorter. About here looks right – a little below Grimes (longer career) and Maglie (better quality.)
66. Joe Judge
67. Edd Roush Same quality as Beckley but less valuable defensive position and 20% shorter career. Yes, he’s good, but Beckley’s a lot better.
68. Spotswood Poles.
69. Buddy Bell.
70. Larry Doyle
71. Curt Simmons
72. Roger Bresnahan.
73. Waite Hoyt.
74. Harry Hooper.
75. Vada Pinson
76. Gil Hodges
77. Jules Thomas.
78. Rico Carty.
79. Wilbur Cooper
80. Bruce Petway.
81. Jack Clements
82. Graig Nettles.
83. Bill Monroe
84. Herb Pennock
85. Chief Bender
86. Ed Konetchy
87. Al Oliver
88. Jesse Tannehill
89. Bobby Veach
90. Chet Lemon. Not close to ballot. Add 5 points for CF makes him 126. TB>BB/PA .481, TB+BB/Outs .708.
91. Lave Cross
92. Tommy Leach.
93. Tom York

One Top 10 off my consideration set:

Fox is Rabbit Maranville again, off my ballot with OPS+ well under 100 – I think the old-timers overrated the importance of SS fielding, and underrated the possibility of getting a SS who could hit.
   5. sunnyday2 Posted: April 09, 2007 at 02:27 PM (#2329772)
1997 (elect 3)

Keith Hernandez and Jim Wynn move up in re-eval of CFers and corners—Hernandez just a bit, Wynn a lot, both just enough to make PHoM ahead of the deeper, older backlog. And Don Newcombe joins Elston Howard in my PHoM as representatives of the “lost generation” of the integration era. Newk was basically Robin Roberts for a couple years and I believe he had the ability to do that a few more times, but he got screwed up by circumstance more than anybody has a right to.

Dewey Evans was #5 on my prelim, I’ll be darned if I can remember why. I mean, a nice player but similar to a dozen others (Perez, Oms, Cash, Ben Taylor, etc. etc.), all a step or two below the Cepeda-F. Howard-Cravath group. He is now #19 between Singleton and Cash. Still not bad.

1. Edd Roush (1-2-2, PHoM 1976)—nice peak of 38*-33-30 (*short WWI season adjusted to 154), very well-rounded skills

2. Rollie Fingers (3-4-6, PHoM 1991)—there’s no uber-stat that says Fingers is ballot-worthy, but I go back to Chris Cobb’s old test—who do you want in the HoM? And on that simple basis, subjective as it is, I want the #3 reliever of all-time (as of 1995) in mine

3. Pete Browning (4-6-15, PHoM 1961)—do you believe in numbers?

4. Addie Joss (5-5-8, PHoM 1967)—not a workhorse, to be sure, but damn effective and not a “small sample” of IP

5. Reggie Smith (7-9-13, PHoM 1988)—cannot quite see how he’s not better than Jim Wynn

6. Charley Jones (8-10-17, PHoM 1921)—even with hefty AA discounts

7. Ed Williamson (11-12-14, PHoM 1924)—more peak and more glove than than almost any other IF

8. Orlando Cepeda (6-8-9, PHoM 1987)—pretty interchangeable with F. Howard, Cravath and (now) Tony Perez, but the best of the group

9. Phil Rizzuto (9-7-10, PHoM 1995)—306 career WS with war credit. His tenth best season is 21 WS, compared to Nellie Fox at 19, Darrell Evans at 18, e.g. IOW nice prime

10. Larry Doyle (10-11-5, PHoM 1975)—same OPS+ as Ed Roush

11. Gavvy Cravath (14-21-21, PHoM 1995)

12. Frank Howard (12-14-23, PHoM 1987)—PHoM opening forced me to re-evaluate a lot of guys, and his numbers are just too good

13. Dick Redding (16-16-11, PHoM 1971)—next best arm, great peak

(13a. Keith Hernandez [17-new, PHoM 1997]—moved up a bit, just enough in his case, in re-eval of corners)

14. Nellie Fox (13-13-12, PHoM 1971)—I’ve decided I like Rizzuto a bit better, though they are two very very comparable players. I think Phil’s peak was a bit more valuable

(14a. Jim Wynn [27-28-52, PHoM 1997]—moved up significantly in re-evaluation of CFers and hitters)

15. Don Newcombe (19-20-22, PHoM 1997)—one of history’s greatest gaps between his ability and his record; chalk it up to an accumulation of opportunities lost through no fault of his own

Dropped Out

16. Elston Howard (15-15-7, PHoM 1994)—see Don Newcombe

Close—i.e. right around in/out line, as I think we will elect another 10 or so backloggers before we’re done

17. Tommy Leach (20-21-16)
(17a. Quincy Trouppe [20a-22-50])
18. Ken Singleton (31-32-71)—another big gainer
19. Dewey Evans (new)—nice player
20. Dan Quisenberry (22-new)—better ‘n Sutter

21. Norm Cash (21-21-43)
(21a. Jimmy Sheckard [43a-43a-45a]—and another)
22. Vic Willis (60-60-63)—and another, though for different reasons
23. Al Rosen (23-24-18)
(23a. Joe Kelley [68a-68a-64a]—and another)

HoVVG

24. Bus Clarkson (44-44-82)—and another, again, for different reasons
25. Alejandro Oms (33-34-40)
26. Burleigh Grimes (25-26-38)
27. Roger Bresnahan (26-27-31)
28. Johnny Pesky (29-30-80)
29. Tony Perez (18-19-19)
30. Sal Bando (28-29-29)
(30a. Jim Bunning [30a-31a-30b])

31. Eddie Cicotte (30-31-24)
(31a. Joe Sewell [32a-33a-30a])
32. Dave Parker (new)
33. Ben Taylor (64-64-73)
34. Bruce Sutter (32-33-44)
35. Hugh Duffy (61-61-62)
(35a. Ken Boyer [34a-33b-22a])
36. Jake Beckley (59-59-54)
(36a. Don Sutton [35a-35a-20])
37. Bobby Bonds (43-43-45)
38. Lefty Gomez (36-36-32)
39. Bob Elliott (35-35-57)
40. Luis Tiant (37-37-48)

41. Bob Johnson (52-52-60)
42. Chuck Klein (39-39-30)
43. Thurman Munson (38-38-37)
44. Hack Wilson (24-25-28)
45. Vern Stephens (41-41-33)
46. Fred Dunlap (49-49-59)
47. George Van Haltren (77-77-74)
(47a. Cool Papa Bell [49a-49a-49a])
48. Luke Easter (40-40-25)
49. Jim Rice (63-63-new)
50. Tommy Bridges (47-47-58)
   6. ronw Posted: April 09, 2007 at 03:07 PM (#2329822)
1997 Ballot –I use a little of WS, WARP, RCAA, OPS+, and traditional stats, as well as reputation. I’m putting bWS/700PA and pWS/300IP, plus my broad All-Star candidates, and MVP/Cy Young candidates for fun.

1. Dick Redding. If only we could have his teen’s peak clearly defined. I’m going to be disappointed if he never makes it to the HOM.

2. Pete Browning. 26.1 bWS/700 PA, 5 MVP, 8 AS. There were two better hitters through the 1880’s, Brouthers and Connor. There were many better fielders. The Gladiator is getting closer.

3. Roger Bresnahan. 22.7 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 10 AS. Yes, the MVP was as a CF, but still a very valuable player for his time.

4. Hugh Duffy. 20.9 bWS/700PA, 5 MVP, 10 AS. Dominant during the early 1890’s, but that might be Win Shares talking.

5. George Van Haltren. 20.0 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 13 AS. Has gotten an elect-me vote on my ballot before.

6. Tommy Leach. 18.0 bWS/700 PA, 2 MVP, 11 AS. A good player from an underrepresented period.

7. Sal Bando. 19.4 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 10 AS. As I was about to put him into an “elect-me” spot, I reconsidered. I think I was overcompensating for a lack of HOM 3B. However, we just got a few, Perez is kind of a 3B, and we’re about to get Brett, Boggs, and Molitor. Plus, Bando has some fielding issues that Leach doesn’t have.

8. Bill Monroe. The ultimate overlooked candidate.

9. Luis Tiant. 21.5 pWS/300IP, 3 MVP, 9 AS. I think he may be better than electee Billy Pierce.

10. Vic Willis. 22.0 pWS/300IP, 3 CY, 8 AS. I think we are underrating his early career peak.

11. Lou Brock. - 18.7 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 11 AS. 30+ WS seasons in 1967, 1968, and 1971, plus a solid long career looks pretty good to me.

12. Ben Taylor I think Ben was a smidgen better than Jake.

13. Jake Beckley 18.6 bWS/700PA, 0 MVP, 12 AS. Jake’s back in time to be elected.

14. Larry Doyle 22.5 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 11 AS. I’ve voted him high before.

15. Nellie Fox 13.1 bWS/700PA, 2 MVP, 10 AS. I like Doyle and Monroe better. Fox wouldn’t be a horrible selection.

16. Dan Quisenberry – 45.0 pWS/300IP, 4 CY, 5 AS. Very dominant during his peak.

17. Bobby Bonds. 22.4 bWS/700PA, 4 MVP, 10 AS. Neck and neck with Singleton.

18. Ken Singleton. 22.2 bWS/700PA, 5 MVP, 8 AS. Much better stats than I remembered.

19. George J. Burns. 20.5 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 11 AS. I still think that WS might overrate leadoff hitters, since they come to the plate more often. However, that also makes them valuable.

20. Urban Shocker. 24.6 pWS/300IP, 3 CY, 7 AS. Very similar to Vic Willis. They could move closer together.

OTHER NEAR-MISSES/NEWBIES/LAST YEAR TOP 10 with comments

C. Wally Schang. 19.8 bWS/700 PA, 0 MVP, 11 AS.

C. Gene Tenace. 24.1 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 8 AS.

1B. Orlando Cepeda. 22.8 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 9 AS.

1B. Tony Perez. 19.3 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 8 AS.

2B. George Scales. I think we could have missed him.

3B. Pie Traynor. 16.2 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 11 AS.

SS. Herman Long. 13.3 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 9 AS.

SS. Vern Stephens. 18.5 bWS/700PA, 2 MVP, 9 AS.

SS. Dick Lundy. Reexamining his offense seems to classify him as a near miss.

SS. Garry Templeton – 10.3 bWS/700PA, 0 MVP, 7 AS – Compare him to today’s vilified athletes. What Templeton did doesn’t seem so bad.

LF. Bob Johnson. 21.8 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 12 AS.

CF. Roy Thomas. 23.0 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 10 AS.

CF. Edd Roush – 21.9 bWS/700PA, 2 MVP, 9 AS. I’m not giving holdout credit.

RF. Dwight Evans – 19.5 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 8 AS. Wouldn’t hurt the HOM, but I like Bonds/Singleton better.

RF. Dave Parker – 19.4 bWS/700PA, 4 MVP, 9 AS. Hung on a while, lowering the career rates.

RF. Ken Griffey – 19.7 bWS/700PA, 0 MVP, 5 AS. Statistics aren’t as impressive as I remember.

SP. Rick Reuschel – 20.3 pWS/300IP, 1 CY, 9 AS. Much more effective than I realized.

SP. Wilbur Cooper. 22.2 pWS/300IP, 1 CY, 9 AS.

SP. Eddie Rommel. 24.2 pWS/300IP, 1 CY, 9 AS.

SP. Bucky Walters. 22.6 pWS/300IP, 4 CY, 5 AS.

SP. Dizzy Dean. 27.6 pWS/300IP, 3 CY, 6 AS.

SP. Mel Harder. 20.5 pWS/300IP, 3 CY, 5 AS.

RP. John Hiller. 34.7 pWS/300IP, 1 CY, 5 AS.

RP. Sparky Lyle. 34.7 pWS/300IP, 0 CY, 4 AS.

RP. Rollie Fingers – 33.0 pWS/300IP, 1 CY, 4 AS. Why is he doing so much better than in the voting than Hiller and Lyle?

RP. Bruce Sutter. 48.2 pWS/300IP, 2 CY, 4 AS.
   7. Daryn Posted: April 09, 2007 at 03:50 PM (#2329869)
None of the last three electees were on my ballot, so nothing much changes.

I'm the first voter for Evans -- that surprises me. I slot Evans in ahead of Perez and slot Parker just behind Rice.

Staub moves up 25 spots, but not onto the ballot.

I value career over peak, but can be entranced by a great prime. I look at traditional statistics, ERA+, OPS+, Win Shares and Ink. Equally importantly, I read everything on this board and incorporate all that work into my analysis, whether it is RSI, MLEs, PenAdds, simple comparisons of candidates or anything else.

Edd Roush is my only required comment – I like him fine, he is in the 30s.

1. Lou Brock, of – I think the post season value and the tremendous speed puts him ahead of the similar long-career peakless Beckley. OCF sums up his case in post 126 of the Brock thread. Number of unelected Hall of Fame or Hall of Merit eligible players with more hits than Brock: Zero. Number of people with more MLB hits than Brock: 21.

2. Jake Beckley, 1b -- ~3000 hits but no peak at all. Crawford (HOMer) and Wheat (HOMer) are two of his three most similars. 3200+ hits adjusted to 162 games. He doesn’t need defensive bonus points to rate this high in my opinion.

3. Mickey Welch, p – 300 wins, lots of grey ink. RSI data shows those wins are real. Compares fairly well to Keefe. I like his dominating record against HoMers.

4. Burleigh Grimes, p – as a career voter, I have difficulty seeing the vast difference others see between Rixey and Faber (both now elected) and Grimes.

5. Dwight Evans – I like him as a career candidate rather than a peak candidate. His defence and baserunning moves him to here from what might otherwise be just off ballot.

6. Tony Perez – this might be a bit high, but I am comfortable with it. 34th all-time in total bases, no black ink – the weight of his career totals push him above what otherwise looks like a definitional bubble candidate’s resume.

7. Dick Redding, p – probably the 6th best blackball pitcher of all-time (behind, at least, Williams and Paige and likely behind the Fosters and Brown), and that is good enough for me.

8. Nellie Fox, 2b -- I like the great defense, the 12 all star appearances, the MVP and the 2600 hits from a fielding position.

9. Addie Joss, p – I don’t like short careers much, but I cannot ignore the best WHIP of all-time, the second best all-time ERA, the 12th best ERA+ and the nice winning percentage. He is barely better than (this is an unordered list) Kaat, Hunter, Harder, Warneke, Smith, Bridges, Gomez, Hoyt, Dean, Luque, Pennock, Trucks, Matthews, Quinn, McCormick, Cicotte, Willis, Walters, Bender, Mays, Cooper, Shocker, Mullane (highest WS of any non-candidate by far), Byrd and Mullin.

I don’t think any of the guys below this sentence are deserving.

10. Pete Browning, of – Joe Jackson’s most similar player, and they are pretty close – I have him as about 4/5ths of Jackson, who was 2nd on my ballot when elected. Pete Browning is the benefactor of a decision I made in 1986. I’m a career voter, but I have decided that I’d rather honour a great peak than the 210th best career candidate.

11. Luis Tiant, p – I don’t have a problem with 11 pitchers from the 70s making our Hall. Talent isn’t evenly distributed and I have no problem with acknowledging value attached to favourable conditions. See Welch, Mickey, for the other side of the same coin.

12. Rollie Fingers – he is a real borderline closer for me. I definitely like Tiant better and I am pretty sure I prefer him to Cepeda – I’m not too sure about the Fingers-John-Nettles-Rice-Parker order). If he is still on the ballot in 2006, he might move down.

13. Tommy John – not too far from Grimes, a step above Kaat. No credit for the surgery, but medical pioneers (even the guinea pigs) get my respect.

14. Graig Nettles – definitely better than Traynor, about equal to Boyer. Obviously, the defence is a big help.

15. Jim Rice – I like the 77-79 peak. I like the runs created in his ten+ year prime and I like his overall totals. I do adjust raw totals significantly, but I think people are holding Fenway too much against him. From 1975 to 1986, Rice led the American League in total games played, at-bats, runs scored, hits, homers, RBIs, slugging percentage, total bases, extra-base hits, go-ahead RBIs, multi-hit games, and outfield assists.

16. Dave Parker – I think he is very similar to Rice, but I like Rice’s peak better. Their career counting stats impress me.
   8. rawagman Posted: April 09, 2007 at 06:03 PM (#2330060)
1997 Ballot
Use a sort of peak-over career number that measures ink by playing time. Combined with rate stats and a glove measurement, I feel this gives me both context for what the player actually achieved versus what the league around him was able to do.
PHOM - Bobby Veach, Willie Stargell, Orlando Cepeda (hitter week). Dwight Evans gets my 15th
spot. This honestly isn't a hedge-vote. He was neck and neck with Tony Oliva in the positional
rankings and I decided to keep Oliva's peak just above Evans' prime. Dave Parker did not impress me so much. 12th among RFs. Between Bobby Bonds and Sam Rice. None of the other newcomers comes anywhere close to consideration.


1)Hugh Duffy - Super peak, wonderful prime. Amazing bat, super glove. (PHOM)
2)Ben Taylor - Can't find the peak, but a better prime (through the roof), career and glove than Beckley. I think he may be the player most underrated by the electorate. (PHOM)
3)Edd Roush - I found it in me (and Edd's numbers) to move him up a bit in the list. Even when he was missing time, he wasn't missing all that much (other than that one year. An exceptional hitter and fielder. (PHOM)
4)Nellie Fox - Looking past the OPS+, Nellie Fox was remarkably effective in almost all facets of his game. (PHOM)
5)Tommy Bridges - He was really very good. Moves up a few notches as I reexamine his applicable WWII credit and begin a rethink into pitching evaluations. I flipped Bridges and Gomez this week. Not as an affront to Lefty, but after reexamining the cases put up by Dick Redding and Bucky Walters. Of those four, the white guys were all regulars for 10-11 seasons. Bucky and Lefty both had immense peaks, but I think that Lefty's non-peak years hold up better than Bucky's. Also, Lefty does not need any war discount. Dick Redding seems more similar to Walters in that his non -peak was not so impressive. His peak was still enough to leave in him solid backlog country. (I even put him in my PHOM back when I joined the project. Tommy Bridges wins out. He had much greater consistency. He is to pitchers what Bob Johnson was to hitters, but more of a winner. As we see the upcoming dearth of good pitching candidates, I urge everyone to give Tommy Bridges a closer look.(PHOM)
6)Lefty Gomez - looking at him in any single way hurts him. Looking at him kaleidoscopically has him as maybe the best available pitcher in my eyes (PHOM)
7)Charley Jones - he got the shaft - but I am not convinced as to what extent. A little reconsideration bump here. I give partial blacklist credit. I tend to be liberal with credit, but I don't think he deserves full credit. That said, even with the partial credit I am giving him (2 full years), I now see that he was rather durable in season, and he seems to have been a solid defender. (PHOM)
8)Vern Stephens - Will we look at Nomar down the road like we look at Vern now? Great bat, good glove. (PHOM)
9)Gavvy Cravath - No longer the worst fielder in my top 120 candidates (Frank Howard). Probably still the best hitter, though. (PHOM)
10)Bob Johnson - I don't know why it took me this long. Great all-round LF. Very durable. (PHOM)
11)Bobby Veach - He did it all well. As complete a LF as is available today. (PHOM)
((11a)Willie Stargell - His particular career has proven to be a real challenge to my system. I think this will be among his lower rankings. But if I didn't jump all over Billy Williams, then Willie can only be here.)) (PHOM)
12)Orlando Cepeda (PHOM)
((12a)Ken Boyer - so close. Fits nicely between Brooks' glove and Rosen's bat.))
13)Al Oliver - I was surprised by the similarilites between Oliver and Reggie Smith. Smith had the higher OPS+, but I fear it may be a bit hollow. Oliver trumps Reggie (and Wally Berger) in light of his more convincing peak and a glove that scores better than the other two. Career length is nice as well.
14)Tony Oliva - another big jump. Career not as short as I thought. A world class hitter.
15)Dwight Evans - I honestly held no real memory of him as a player from my childhood, but he gains my respect with a long drawn out prime who (at various times) was an exceptional hitter andfielder. Prefer the peak of Oliva, but I can understand a valid comparison between him and Bob Johnson. Better than Darrell.
   9. rawagman Posted: April 09, 2007 at 06:14 PM (#2330082)
16)Jim Rice - This is, more or less, where the in-out line can be found.
17)Wally Berger - super-underrated
18)Dizzy Dean - Diet Sandy Koufax. 0 calories (career), no sugar (prime).
19)Bus Clarkson - I failed to give him credit as a SS earlier. More shades of Quincy. The good
doctor's new numbers have been added to my spread sheet, but I have not given him any of a
readjustment yet as I wait to see how the electorate takes the info. Solid chance he will make my ballot next year though.
((19a)Darrell Evans - Thanks to Chris Cobb for correcting a flaw in my judgment that was worth 8 spots on this ballot. Being a third basemen for 2 more years would have been worth another 8 spots or so.))
20)Dan Quisenberry - I suppose I've decided that I value peak in a reliever over career totals. Mind you, if the guy has both...well, we'll see what happens with Goose in a few years.
21)Bruce Sutter - Very curious to see if anyone else has him as their highest ranked reliever
right now. Shorter career than the others, but when he was at his best, he was the best. That
works for me.
22)Ernie Lombardi - defense was below average, but not quite horrible
((22a)Jimmy Wynn - In my reassessment, I was struck by the closeness in several of my areas of focus between Jimmy Wynn and Al Oliver. Each man played around 2/3 of his career in CF, and the other 1/3 elsewhere in the OF. Wynn had a higher career OPS+ (128-121) and more seasons above 120 (8-6). I also give Wynn a slight edge with defensive ability. Ultimately, I have Oliver because those differences are quite small and are made up, IMHO by Oliver's extra ink (small consideration), much greater contemporary acclaim (Oliver- 7 ASG appearances, 3 silver sluggers. Wynn - 3 ASG appearances) and mostly by the 3 extra seasons as a regular. Looking at my other highly regarded CF's, Roush is like Oliver but with greater consistency (10 seasons as a regular with an OPS+ greater than 120, plus a great glove. Duffy had the glove (see my comments on his defense in the Duffy/GVH/Jimmy Ryan thread.) and a higher peak than any of them.))
23)Alejandro Oms - This is a serious jump for him in my rankings (nearly 60 places). I was
counting him as a RF only. The hybrid time gets hmi here, just above Reggie Smith. This could
change. Right now I have provisionally given him a career as a 50% CF.
24)Reggie Smith - Another challenge. Uncertainties about his defense keep him from challenging my top half. Moves back up a bit as the clouds pass and I see much to compare between R. Smith and J. Wynn.
25)Ron Guidry - I love a dominant pitcher. I don't think it's necessarily corrent to view
pitchers and hitters in the same light and I value a strong peak (I mean really strong) for
pitchers more than for hitters (prefer a steady, all round type there). Similar to, but not quite the equal of, Lefty Gomez, one of my inner circle of best friends.
26)Al Rosen - One more season in prime, and he is top 10
27)Mickey Welch - jumps up in my new system.
((27a)Jim Bunning - He had merits, but not enough for balloting. Benefits from my re-examination of ink.))
((27b)Billy Pierce - don't see him as being better than Bridges. My system looks at pitchers differently than position players as I do not account for hitting. That's probably flawed and may need to be reconsidered. But I do not want to dock modern AL pitchers for simply pitching in a league where they do not hit as a rule. And pitcher fielding has become more and more irrelevent over the years.))
28)Sparky Lyle - The biggest surprise of my remodeled reliever system. I don't look at postseason heroics so much, but for those who give plaudits for Fingers' work, check out Sparky. Great peak, very consistent.
29)Dick Redding - One of the toughest for me to accurately place (PHOM)
30)Ron Cey - I remember his late Topps cards. Lots of very small print on the back. He compares favourably to the other eligible 3Bs. I'd still take Rosen's monster peak over his steady production, but it's close.
31)Norm Cash - Too much in one year - and that was not the best year for an everlasting peak, for a number of reasons.
((31a)Joe Gordon - Neither here nor there. Not the peak, nor the career. War credit obviously helps him, but not enough for me.))
((31b)Dobie Moore - Peak too short, not enough surrounding it. Wreckers play helps, but not
enough at present.))

32)Addie Joss - ERA/+ and WHIP are great, but why so little black ink?
((32a)Cupid Childs))
33)Fred Dunlap - Very short career. Very good, too.
34)Rollie Fingers - When he was on, forget about it. Unfortunately, I don't feel that he was on consistently enough to merit anything, much higher than this. It seems that his abundance of 15th place votes last year was a lot of voters hedging their bets.
35)Bucky Walters - Very similar to Pierce in overall picture - but built differently.
36)Don Newcombe - big beneficiary of pitcher's fielding analysis.
37)Tommy John - I think I like his overall picture just a smidgen more than Sutton's.
((37a)Don Sutton - Had a peak, but not an exceptional one. His durability pushes him above
Tiant.))

38)Luis Tiant - Undoubtedly a wonderful pitcher, but of the type who don't do that well in my
system.I wasn't Billy Pierce's biggest fan, but I still liked Billy (and Marichal and Bunning)
more than Tiant, so he starts off over here.
39)Tony Perez - I wasn't giving him the extra glove credit he earned through 5 seasons as the
Reds' 3B. Still, no peak. As far as 1B go, I have Cepeda up higher because of his very nice peak and his not too short career as a regular. Ben Taylor suffers from a lack of documented stats. The stats there show that he could flat out mash the ball by dead-ball standards. Contemporaries say his glove was the best they had ever seen at 1B. Very apt, in this year of the Hernandez discussion. How much as a scoop worth? I think it's worth alot. I maintain that while a below average defensive 1B can cause little harm, an above average glove at 1B will provide a hefty bonus to the team lucky enough to employ one.
40)Fred Carroll - I give him around 1.5 seasons prime MiL credit. Better than Tenace.
41)Larry Doyle - If only the glove were just a little better.
42)Phil Rizzuto
43)Cecil Travis - A very worthy extra credit case.
44)Jake Beckley - Always very good. No peak, all prime. Defense is overrated. I have read about his arm being so weak (and erratic) that runners were able to take the extra base on him. Not sure how that works at 1B, but worth noting. See Perez comment for more about my 1B thoughts.
45)Jimmy Ryan
46)Fred Lynn - Very similar to Duffy and Roush. Loses a lot of ground due to in-season durability concerns for an otherwise very strong candidate. Should be appealing to Browning/Chance/McGraw supporters who overlook that sort of thing.
((46a)Charlie Keller - Let's start with extra credit questions. I do not give minor league MLE credit for being blocked. Integration, yes. Non-MLB affiliation, yes. Having someone else the franchise liked better at the time above you, no. He had serious durability issues. Are high rate stats easier to maintain when not playing a full schedule. It would seem so. A very talented bat, nevertheless. Another voter asked how would Keller and Kiner have fared if they were essentially traded for one another. I have a nagging doubt in my gut that we wouldn't have discussed Keller that much if he played on a different franchise. A great player when on the field. So was Fred Lynn. Charley Jones played more full seasons without blacklist credit than Keller did with both WWII and minor league credit. As I'll only give Keller the WWII credit and I am giving Jones 2 years of blacklist credit, that gives Charley Jones double the career (a pennant is a pennant). Bob Johnson was every inch the hitter Keller was, but in great obscurity and for much longer. What about Wally Berger? Another hard core masher with a short career (still a fair bit longer than Keller's though - and he played CF (and he played it well!)))
47)Cy Williams
48)Amos Otis
49)Dolf Camilli
50)Fielder Jones - I was missing on him a bit. A very apt first name. Solid bat as well.
51)Pete Browning - A superior masher, but a horrible person to have on your team. No defenisve
value whatsoever and very very poor durability. Worse than most contemporary catchers.
52)Steve Garvey - Something between Perez and McCormick. Nice size career, defensive value, could hit a bit - nothing overwhelming though.
53)Jim Bottomley - More than just a Frankie Frisch mistake.
54)George Kell
55)Frank McCormick - One of the finest 1B gloves in MLB hitter, and a decent hitter as well.
56)Bob Elliott - A little 3B run here
57)Graig Nettles - Among 3B, I figure he sits nicely here between Elliott and Bando. The better question to ask is if I am underrating 3B in general. I'll have to look into it a bit more later. Nettles is the best defensive 3B on my ballot. I think he was better than Boyer as well.
58)Sal Bando
59)Buddy Bell - Fits in rather nicely in this run of HOVG 3B.
60)Pie Traynor
61)Ed Williamson - I was missing a little something here.
62)Johnny Evers
63)Elston Howard
64)Joe Wood - If he had one more really good year as a pitcher, he'd be balloted
65)Bill Mazeroski
66)Tony Lazerri - Similar value to Maz. Accrued very differently.
67)Tommy Leach - I had missed him until now - I don't see the great love for him, though.
68)Vic Willis - A reaximantion of all pitchers to include fielding ability causes an adjustment for Willis and a jump up the consideration set.
69)Thurmon Munson - see below.
70)Roger Bresnahan - Not like the two above or below, he is among those negatively affected by my new adjustments.
71)Walker Cooper - some days, he reminds me of Quincey Trouppe
72)Johnny Pesky
73)Hippo Vaughn
74)George Kell - Had him a bit too high earlier.
75)Cesar Cedeno - Found him to be comparable to Amos Otis and Jimmy Wynn in total value. Slots
lower than those two in light of the shape of that value.
76)Vada Pinson - The ink really threw me for a twist. He looks like a good all-round CF, not
great. But he amassed hefty ink totals for his generation. This may be a safe ranking.
77)Luis Aparicio - The low OPS+ masks his real effectiveness.
78)Tip O'Neill - The next Canadian.
79)Rocky Colavito
80)Chuck Klein - Drops like a rock. Great hitter Not much else. What separates him from Cravath. Not sure at the moment, really. I guess Cravath has those extra credit intangibles.
81)Denny Lyons
82)John McGraw - Hurt alot by my readjustment - no durability. Tsk, tsk.
83)George Van Haltren - see the comment on Wynn. Van Haltren is the big loser on the CF sweepstakes due to his poor fielding by my own accounts.
84)Rabbit Maranville
   10. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: April 09, 2007 at 06:25 PM (#2330118)
John, are we going to have a break between the ballot closing and the announcement from now on, to give people the chance to Bill Buckner last-minute ballots if necessary? I brought that up late last "year", so I don't know if everyone saw it.
   11. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: April 09, 2007 at 06:39 PM (#2330148)
John, are we going to have a break between the ballot closing and the announcement from now on, to give people the chance to Bill Buckner last-minute ballots if necessary? I brought that up late last "year", so I don't know if everyone saw it.


I had posted two weeks ago that I thought your idea was a good one, Devin. You posted that you wanted that break to last to 10 PM, correct?
   12. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: April 09, 2007 at 10:47 PM (#2330570)
Yeah, 10:00 was my suggestion, but if anybody else has any thoughts, feel free to chime in. It just seems like a "better safe than sorry" situation to me.
   13. Paul Wendt Posted: April 10, 2007 at 04:41 AM (#2330864)
rawagman #8-9
44)Jake Beckley - Always very good. No peak, all prime. Defense is overrated. I have read about his arm being so weak (and erratic) that runners were able to take the extra base on him. Not sure how that works at 1B, but worth noting. See Perez comment for more about my 1B thoughts.

I doubt that he handled throws from the outfield.
I suppose it means first to third on a grounder: he couldn't turn the 5-3-5 dp! or the 3-5 on some grounders to first unassisted, or the 1-3-5 on some sacrifice bunts?
I don't have a clue how often it happened.
Second to home not often, I think.

. . . [earlier]
13)Al Oliver - I was surprised by the similarilites between Oliver and Reggie Smith. Smith had the higher OPS+, but I fear it may be a bit hollow. <u>Oliver trumps Reggie (and Wally Berger) in light of his more convincing peak and a glove that scores better than the other two</u>. Career length is nice as well.
14)Tony Oliva - another big jump. Career not as short as I thought. A world class hitter.
15)Dwight Evans - I honestly held no real memory of him as a player from my childhood, but he gains my respect with a long drawn out prime who (at various times) was an exceptional hitter andfielder. Prefer the peak of Oliva, but I can understand a valid comparison between him and Bob Johnson. Better than Darrell.
16)Jim Rice - This is, more or less, where the in-out line can be found.
17)Wally Berger - super-underrated
. . . [from 46a Charlie Keller]
<i>What about Wally Berger? Another hard core masher with a short career</u> (still a fair bit longer than Keller's though - and <u>he played CF (and he played it well!)</u>))


But Al Oliver has a more convincing peak and a better glove?


47)Cy Williams
48)Amos Otis
49)Dolf Camilli


best friend, best friend, best friend!

How many were on the 250-home run list when Cy Williams retired? Was he third all-time in the major leagues, now third all-time in the Williams family?
   14. Paul Wendt Posted: April 10, 2007 at 04:48 AM (#2330875)
Cy Williams - There is a late bloomer.
The SABR Collegiate Cmte, reported at baseball-reference, has him at Notre Dame 1910-1912, thru age 24.5.

"Was he third all-time in the major leagues?" (Ruth, Hornsby, Williams)
   15. rawagman Posted: April 10, 2007 at 07:44 AM (#2330907)
Paul - Are you asking me why Oliver above Berger or why both above Keller?
Also, there may be a bunch of others who have one, two or all of Cy Williams, Otis and Camilli higher than I do, but most voters' lists aren't displayed that deeply.
   16. favre Posted: April 10, 2007 at 09:27 AM (#2330914)
I consider myself a prime voter, using a combination of OPS+/PA, ERA+/IP, and WS on a season-by-season basis. I also give weight to underrepresented eras and positions. That approach has come under some criticism over the past couple of weeks. Unfortunately I am about to leave for a week, and don’t have time to mount a defence, but please do understand I have considered the arguments against position/era balance, and will hopefully be able to address them later.

1. Charley Jones
2. Jake Beckley

There is a group of sluggers in the backlog who have roughly the same resume: about 300 career WS (with credits and adjustments); a career OPS+ 150 or thereabouts, with a high somewhere in the 170s; eight or nine prime years (with various war/minor league credits); not a lot of defensive value. This group includes Gavvy Cravath, Charlie Keller, Frank Howard, Pete Browning (with AA adjustments), Mike Tiernan; Sam Thompson, already in the HoM, also fits in this group. All these guys have an argument for induction, but I think Jones is a cut above. He also had a high peak, but a longer prime (with blacklisted credit) and better defense than the others with the possible exception of Keller. Although I don’t give credit for any seasons before 1876, I do suspect that his late arrival in organized baseball was due to geographical factors.

Correct me if I’m wrong, but Beckley’s 6th place finish last year is his best since the 1931-32 elections, when he also took the sixth spot; his record high (I think) is fifth place on the ballot in 1930. In my mind’s eye I’ve imagined the HoM wrap party, with peaksters dancing the limbo in celebration of Beckley’s exclusion from the Hall, as karlmagnus drinks himself silly in a corner, muttering profanities to himself. But maybe not…

3. Vic Willis
4. Bucky Walters

I’m surprised to find Willis in an elect-me spot. 4000 IP with an ERA+ of 118 (and seasons of 167, 155, and 154). That’s comparable to Faber (4086/119) and Lyons (4161/118), and a whole lot better than Ruffing (4344/109).

While I recognize that Walters’ 1939-’42 peak was helped by outstanding defenses behind him, he also pitched well during and immediately after the war, when his outstanding defences were either in the service or growing old.

5. Nellie Fox
6. Bob Elliott

Boyer’s election gives us another fifties infielder, bringing us to six. (Boyer, Jackie, Pee Wee, Mathews, and Banks; Musial at 1B from 1955; also technically Killebrew and Robinson, but Killer wasn’t established as a full-time player until ’59, and Brooksie until 1960). That’s still too few for a decade of high quality, integrated play. We also have no 2B after 1952, when Jackie moved to LF. Rose arrived on the scene in 1963, so that’s an eleven year gap. Fox’s career—over 2600 hits and 300 WS—gets him on the ballot.

It’s hard for me to see the difference between Bob Elliott (287 WS, 124 OPS+, 92.7 WARP1) and Ken Boyer (279 WS, 116 OPS+, 95.0 WARP1; not that I really care about WARP). We’ve only elected seven 3B who debuted before 1950, which seems a little paltry for eighty years of professional baseball.

7. Roger Bresnahan
8. Gavvy Cravath
9. Tommy Leach

We have a twenty year gap at catcher from 1891-1911. Bresnahan was in the top six in OPB seven times from 1903-1914; he did equally well in another five seasons, but didn’t have the PA’s to qualify for the title. That’s an impressive run for a catcher. Cravath averaged a 161 OPS+ from ages 32-36, and the data from the minor leagues suggests that was not a fluke.

Tommy Leach, an old favourite of mine, makes it back onto the ballot after a fifteen-year-or-so absence. 324 career WS, great defence at two key positions, and he could hit a little.

10. Dwight Evans
11. Ken Singleton
12. Larry Doyle

Singleton and Evans come out as very similar players in my system, because it gives little weight to Evans’ career before 1980. Both had a long prime with outstanding OBP’s. Evans was the better fielder, at least in his younger days, and had a longer career, so he gets the nod… Larry Doyle has been in my top twenty-five or so for decades; there’s just not a lot of second basemen out there with a career 126 OPS+.

13. Eddie Cicotte
14. Dave Concepcion
15. Frank Howard

I don’t understand WARP, so arguments for Concepcion based on it holds little sway with me. OTOH, the “if Nellie Fox, then why not Concepcion” does make a certain amount of sense. Concepcion won five WS gold gloves from 1974-79, and didn’t embarrass himself with the bat.

Frank Howard was just a monster from ’68-70. Cicotte also had some big years before he threw it all away.


16-20: Frank Howard, Wally Schang, Charlie Keller, Tony Perez, Rusty Staub.

Not in my top fifteen:

Pete Browning Brent/Daryn’s AA projections show he wasn’t a historic hitter, and he also had some playing time issues. Basically confirms what I’ve believed for a while: excellent hitter, mediocre defence, injury problems, same resume’ as a number of other OFers.

Edd Roush Like Browning, in some respects: weaker league, had some playing time issues, although he was a whole lot better with the glove..

Rollie Fingers I’m an ERA+/Win Shares guy, and Fingers does not look good using either system. Still, Sunny’s argument, that the third best reliever before 1988 should be in, is starting to make sense to me.

Tony Perez Currently #19. Has the long prime that I like, although not as impressive as Beckley’s. He’ll likely make my ballot in the near future.

Dick Redding. Has been compared to Orel Hershiser. Seems apt: had a couple of big years which gives him an argument, but not quite enough for induction.
   17. rawagman Posted: April 10, 2007 at 09:41 AM (#2330915)
favre - Not that it matters as far as ballot counting is concerned, but Charlie Keller (#18) has been elected.
   18. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: April 10, 2007 at 12:29 PM (#2330943)
favre--Your thoughts on Rizzuto and Pesky? Rizzuto, in particular, had the same OPS+ as Fox, was a better fielder than Fox, and played shortstop.
   19. TomH Posted: April 10, 2007 at 01:04 PM (#2330952)
I'll respond to Dan's Q, since it will apply to my ballot as well (me: Fox at 18, Rizzuto at 37, which is a very small diff)

Phil played 10 yrs; give him 3 for WWII. Take Fox's best 13 yrs; his offense advantage (using EqA, 279 to 268) is about 12 hits/yr. Phil's def adv probably about this, maybe a bit higher, but Fox played more outside the 13 yrs, so I have him just ahead.

He also ranks higher among all 2Bmen; a metric impt to some and heresy to others.
   20. Rusty Priske Posted: April 10, 2007 at 01:21 PM (#2330968)
PHoM: Dwight Evans, Dave Parker, Ken Singleton

1. Tony Perez (1,3,2)

I'm a career voter, obviously.

2. Dwight Evans (new)
3. Rusty Staub (3,6,3)

See #1

4. Edd Roush (5,4,5)
5. Jake Beckley (2,5,4)

These two should be close to getting in.

6. George Van Haltren (4,7,8)

He SHOULD be close, but isn't.

7. Dave Parker (new)
8. Nellie Fox (8,11,6)

Another likely suspect.

9. Tommy Leach (7,9,9)
10. Lou Brock (11,10,11)
11. Graig Nettles (10,14,7)
12. Mickey Welch (9,13,15)

The bloom is off on Welch, it seems.

13. Hugh Duffy (14,x,x)
14. Reggie Smith (15,x,x)
15. Bobby Bonds (x,x,x)

16-20. Cash, Cepeda, Singleton, Johnson, Willis
21-25. Redding, Browning, Monroe, Streeter, F.Howard
26-30. Grimes, Doyle, Strong, McCormick, Greene
   21. Dizzypaco Posted: April 10, 2007 at 02:53 PM (#2331050)
There's another difference between Fox and Rizzuto. Fox was amazingly durable - he almost never missed a game for a long period of time. Rizzuto was not exactly injury prone, but he missed far more games than Fox did on an annual basis. Thus even if their rate statistics are even, Fox should have an edge offensively over Rizzuto. Dan's system seems to put almost no weight on this issue, but I think its important.
   22. DL from MN Posted: April 10, 2007 at 05:55 PM (#2331198)
1997 Ballot

1) Bus Clarkson - .280/.370/.460 in 8800 plate appearances. For perspective, Barry Larkin compiled .295/.370/.445 in 9000 plate appearances. I have Clarkson pegged as a combination of Barry Larkin's bat and Jay Bell's glove.
2) Dwight Evans - I like to reward consistently high all-around level of play and Dewey fits that description.
3) Luis Tiant - I don't understand the ballots that ignore modern pitchers. Tiant is another in the mold of Bunning, Pierce and Marichal.
4) Bob Johnson - looks a lot like Dwight Evans. Deserves 1-2 years of Pacific Coast League credit. I rank him higher than several enshrined outfielders from his era.
5) Norm Cash - Another all-around great player. Very good defensively but some platoon issues.
6) Tommy Bridges - Terrific pitcher from the war era and the war era is not overrepresented with pitching.
7) Graig Nettles - Very good glove, needs DH boost to see his true offensive contribution.
8) Tony Perez - Another well-rounded player. Played some 3B which gets him ahead of..
9) Jake Beckley - Will he make it? The tortoise of our elections. In the end it will only matter if he crosses the finish line.
10) Ron Cey - I boosted 3B between elections as I found my PHoM lacking. I think we're currently voting on the golden age of third basemen. Nettles, Cey and Bell are in my top 20. We elected Schmidt and Evans and will be electing Brett, Boggs and Molitor.
11) Rick Reuschel - He was a very good pitcher and for a pitcher he was a decent batter and great fielder. In an era where pitching success was fleeting for most and the definition of the reliever was in flux he stands out. We seem to agree that this era had the strongest leagues ever but we can't agree that we should elect more than a handful of pitchers from the strongest talent pool ever.
12) Reggie Smith - Better than Jimmy Wynn, deserves a year of Japan credit.
13) Rusty Staub - Not a good defender but his bat earned him a roster spot forever.
14) Gavy Cravath - Top power hitter of his era. A little bit more glove would have him in better position. A little better than Kiner and Keller.
15) Virgil Trucks - Gotta start electing some of the guys above or he's going to fall off my ballot and stop getting votes. High peak early, deserves some war credit, decent prime and then some leverage as a good reliever.

16) Bob Elliott
17) Edd Roush - comparable to Wynn, above my in-out line
18) Buddy Bell - WARP absolutely adores his glove ranking him way above Nettles and Cey. I'm not quite that optimistic. Do WS and WARP agree on his fielding? If so I'll give WARP the benefit of the doubt and he will make the ballot possibly as soon as next year.
19) Ben Taylor - Moved him up when I noticed Hernandez, Beckley and Cash in my top 10. Waiting for new MLEs before I move him again.
20) Tommy Leach - back in my top 20 again after helping out the 3B

21-25) Thurman Munson, Ken Singleton, Bobby Bonds, Orlando Cepeda, Dutch Leonard
26-30) Dick Redding, Jack Quinn, Darrell Porter, Vic Willis, Dave Bancroft
31-35) Urban Shocker, Johnny Evers, Luke Easter, Rollie Fingers, Tommy John
36-40) Dizzy Trout, Hilton Smith, Lave Cross, Frank Howard, Alejandro Oms
41-42) Charley Jones, Pete Browning

104) Dave Parker - down near Oliva and Brock

115) Nellie Fox - Dan R is absolutely correct in this. Vote for Dave Bancroft, Phil Rizzuto, Dick Lundy or Dave Concepcion. ANY of those guys was a better player than Nellie Fox simply because they played SS. There are several others I'd put in line ahead of Fox as well (Tinker, Evers, Dunlap, Monroe, etc.). Second basemen are supposed to HIT.

Ken Griffey Sr. and Gary Templeton - not in top 150
   23. sunnyday2 Posted: April 10, 2007 at 06:28 PM (#2331253)
>3) Luis Tiant - I don't understand the ballots that ignore modern pitchers. Tiant is another in the mold of Bunning, Pierce and Marichal.

Modern pitchING is very important. Modern pitchERS who throw <200 IP are not, not relative to HoM level. You divide up 162 games enough different ways, it's hard for anybody to accume a lot of value.
   24. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: April 10, 2007 at 06:33 PM (#2331261)
"I use Win Shares as the base for my ranking system, though I am now using a modified version (any negative values are converted into zeroes) of BRAR, FRAR and PRAR for the NA."


John - I wouldn't zero out the individual negative numbers, only when the total value ends up being negative.

It's entirely possible for a player to be below replacement as a hitter and above it as a fielder (even after starting from the point where average fielding is replacement level).
   25. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: April 10, 2007 at 06:49 PM (#2331273)
Modern pitchING is very important. Modern pitchERS who throw <200 IP are not, not relative to HoM level. You divide up 162 games enough different ways, it's hard for anybody to accume a lot of value.


Oooh, I strongly disagree with this sentiment. There's no question that pitcher-candidates in the post-1975 pitch a smaller proportion of his teams innings than most pitchers of the past. But this should, if you're approaching this correctly, not affect the number of pitchers that are Meritorious.

The key to handling the change in IP for starting pitchers is to look at the standard deviation of pitching WARP (or WS, I guess) since 1975. If the standard deviation has decreased, you merely correct for that change.

If the league leading pitcher in 1990 had 5 WARP, and the mean was 2 WARP with a stdev of 1 WARP, then that league-leading pitcher is essentially equivalent to a league-leading pitcher from 1970 with 7 WARP, if the 1970 mean was 4 WARP with a stdev of 1.5 WARP.

It is probable, but not guaranteed, that the standard deviation of starting pitching value decreased as pitching loads lightened. Obviously, with fewer innings pitched, the best pitchers have less opportunity to create more absolute wins than the mean. But if its easier to accrue ultra high rate stats with lower pitch counts- and I would argue that it is- then this IP-stdev correlation should be somewhat attenuated.

A system that leads you to believe that it is harder for a post-1975 pitcher to produce HoM-worthy numbers is flawed. In fact, it's essentially a reverse timeline, and we're not allowed to discriminate among candidates based upon year of birth. Correcting for the standard deviation of pitching contributions is a contextual adjustment, much like a park factor, that allows to compare pitchers from different eras on an even basis.
   26. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: April 10, 2007 at 07:01 PM (#2331291)
I agree with your general premise 'zop, not sure on the specifics . . . if you get a minute, check the Rick Reuschel thread and let me know what you think of how I try to correct for all this.
   27. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: April 10, 2007 at 07:06 PM (#2331296)
Dizzypaco--you're right, I don't distinguish between in-season durability and career longevity. That's just my personal preference as a voter, not an argument that I would try to convince others with.

Dave, you're advocating a different approach to standard deviation than I use. I consider the stdev of the whole league to see how easy it was to dominate, not position-by-position stdevs. Furthermore, while modern pitchers are hurt by low IP totals, they're helped by a higher league stdev (see the ERA+ of Clemens, Maddux, Pedro, Unit, even KBrown/Schilling/Mussina). I definitely think that an 8-WARP season is as valuable as a 10-WARP season in a year where the stdev is 25% higher, but I'm not sure if I think that an 8-WARP season by a 2B as valuable as a 10-WARP season by a 2B in a year where the *overall* league stdev is the same, but the second basemen just happen to be bunched 25% closer together. I'd be interested to hear an argument in favor of that view, though.
   28. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: April 10, 2007 at 07:20 PM (#2331308)
Dan, I think your stdev approach is correct as it applies to positional players (with the exception of catcher, as I'll go into in a minute).

Positional player PT is relatively constant with time; yes, injury rates may have changed over the years, but we're talking about small (<%5) differences over, say, 80 years. Even if you never accounted for this, you'd still get pretty accruate results.

Starting pitcher PT fluctuates wildly over relatively short periods of time. There is no analogy for the "IP Problem" among position players*[see note]. Therefore, the ease in accruing absolute WARP is directly affected my the opporunities each pitcher receives, the # of batters he faced.

In your regression, you recognize the importance of opportunity upon stdev; for example, the extra PA's afforded to position players in a high-offense environment has a strong impact on the stdev of position-player value. The starting pitcher IP variability dwarfs that variation, so we'd expect its impact upon the range of pitching WARP to be commensurately larger.

I guess what I'm trying to say is that your approach must be extended to pitchers in order to fairly evaluate them, but you have to recognize that the stdev of pitching WARP is not going to move in sync with the rest of the league if the average number of batters faced is rapidly changing during a given interval.

*note-I think catchers suffer from much the same problem as starting pitchers; we need to be sensitive to playing time issues and how they impact the stdev among players at that position. Catcher's can't be lumped in with other positions because of the dramatically lower G totals; and a constant bonus can't be applied over time because the number of games that the average catchers are playing is not a constant proportion of the average games played among other positions. It's a much smaller problem them the starting pitcher issue, so it doesnt scream for attention in the same way, but it's probably responsible for the catcher gap in the Aughts.

Joe, I think your approach is trying to correct for this, and probably gets 90% of the way there, but a standard deviation-based approach is probably more accurate. As was brought up in the Reuschel thread, we cant tell if lower IP totals correlate with a increase in the standard deviation of rate stats among SP, so I think we can't separate out IP from Runs Saved (or Pennants Added); they need to be combined and then we look at the stdev of the total contributions of the pitcher in a given season/era.
   29. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: April 10, 2007 at 07:28 PM (#2331318)
I'm also happy to move this to the discussion thread or the Reuschel thread or anywhere else people want, rather than polluting the Ballot thread with what portends to be a lengthy discussion...
   30. sunnyday2 Posted: April 10, 2007 at 07:32 PM (#2331323)
>note-I think catchers suffer from much the same problem as starting pitchers;

Well, of course, they do. We've elected fewer catchers than most other positions, and nobody is whining for them. So while pitching is important, if you have a staff of 12 pitchers (not unheard of these days), and 5 of them are starters who average 6.1, one of them would pretty much have to be Pedro to put a career together. I'm not entirely convinced it's my problem to elect them. Especially when there are always at least 3 Clemens-Maddux-Unit-Pedro type guys around to show that it's not impossible. So, no danger of literally electing nobody.
   31. Sean Gilman Posted: April 10, 2007 at 07:37 PM (#2331329)
1997

1. Pete Browning (1)--If he played in the PCL in the 00s or the Negro Leagues in the 30s, would he be a HOMer by now? Same as with the Negro Leaguers, the league translations inordinately underrate his peak. Besides, it isn’t like the AA wasn’t a major league. A better gladiator than Russell Crowe. (1927)

2. Charley Jones (2)--Jones, Shoeless Joe Jackson and Browning look pretty interchangeable to me. (1929)

3. Tommy Leach (4)--May be the most underrated candidate out there. Great career value, fine peak and played two premium defensive positions. (1942)

4. Edd Roush (5)--A good all-around outfielder who somehow got lost in the rush to induct every OF from the 30s. Bumped over Doyle this year. (1985)

5. John McGraw (18)--Big jump up for McGraw, as I schedule adjust his WARP1 values and his peak moves into line with what I actually though it was, instead of being even with Nellie Fox’s. He’s got the best non-Browning peak on the ballot, but still a shortage of career value.

6. Larry Doyle (6)--Another underrated infielder. Sisler-esque peak , according to win shares.(1945)

7. Hugh Duffy (7)--High peak, medium length career, the best of a massive group of borderline OF candidates. (1964)

8. George Van Haltren (8)--Almost a HOMer not too long ago, will he make it eventually? (1966)

9. Carl Mays (9)--More comparable to Mendez than their respective support would seem to merit. (1968)

10. Alejandro Oms (10)--Another good, yet underrated, all-around outfielder. (1986)

11. Ken Singleton (11)--Ridiculously comparable to Wynn. (1991)

12. Bobby Bonds (13)--Very close to Wynn and the fourth in my series of underrated outfielders. (1995)

13. Dwight Evans (-)--The worst peak of this particular group of outfielders, by both WARP and Win Shares, but also the most career value. He’s right in the middle and into my PHOM.

14. Frank Howard (15)--His Win Shares peak advantage over Fox gets him on the ballot, though WARP sees their peaks as very similar. (1996)

(Joe Gordon)
(Darrell Evans)

15. Nellie Fox (16)--Fox and Nettles are nearly identical for me. Nettles has a bit more career value, but Fox has a slight positional advantage as a 2B. Fox has a ridiculously small peak edge, and that gets him on the ballot.

(Quincey Trouppe)
(Red Faber)
16. Graig Nettles (17)
(Red Ruffing)
17. Rollie Fingers (19)
18. Dave Parker (-)
19. Sal Bando (20)
(Bob Lemon)
20. Bucky Walters (21)
21. Wally Berger (22)
22. Mike Tiernan (23)
23. Cesar Cedeno (24)
24. George Foster (25)
(Ted Lyons)
25. Dick Redding (26)
26. Dave Concepcion (27)
27. Ed Williamson (28)
(Dobie Moore)
28. Tony Perez (29)
29. Rusty Staub (30)
30. Vada Pinson (31)
31. Dan Quisenberry (32)
32. Ron Cey (33)
33. Norm Cash (34)
34. Bruce Sutter (35)
35. Bobby Murcer (36)
36. Orlando Cepeda (37)
(Billy Pierce)
37. Buddy Bell (38)
38. Vern Stephens (39)
39. Roger Bresnahan (40)
40. Lou Brock (41)
41. Dave Bancroft (42)
42. Jimmy Ryan (43)
43. Rabbit Maranville (44)
44. Tony Lazzeri (45)
45. Bob Elliott (46)
46. Phil Rizzuto (47)
(Rube Wadddell)
(Rube Foster)
47. Gavy Cravath (48)
48. Reggie Smith (49)
49. Jake Beckley (50)
50. Bobby Veach (51)

McGraw, Dw. Evans and Joe Gordon make my PHOM. I'm holding off on Bus Clarkson, as I think a previously undiscovered 400 WS player with an MVP-level peak in his late 30s seems mighty improbable to me. I may be persuaded, but it requires further study.
   32. Adam Schafer Posted: April 10, 2007 at 08:25 PM (#2331385)
I was hoping for some longer comments this year as I know some have been asking for them. However we should be having our baby at anytime in the next few hours and I'm being rushed to get everything prepared. I have to get my ballot in now, or it might not happen. It might be up to a week before I can get back on here, so hopefully you guys keep the discussions light for me so I don't have TOO much reading when i get back ;) Top 10 returnees: I'm still not sold on Dick Redding. I have both Parker and Evans in the 40's, which really isn't that far off the end of my ballot.

1. Rollie Fingers - I feel that relievers should be represented in the Hall, and with that in mind, I have no doubt Rollie is deserving.

2. Charley Jones - dominated before being blacklisted, dominated after, and would've dominated during his time lost.

3. Gavvy Cravath - he took advantage of the park, but I say good for him. No one else took advantage of it to the extent that he did at that time.

4. Edd Roush - I give him credit for 1930

5. Nellie Fox - durable, great career candidate

6. Jim Rice - Him and Cepeda are pretty interchangeable. Very similar players in my eyes.

7. Orlando Cepeda - never THE best, but always very good

8. Bucky Walters - suprised to see him on my ballot, but his peak balances out his lack of career.

9. Don Newcombe - give him proper credit for time missed for war, NeL, etc and he has a ton of career value

10. Bus Clarkson - very interesting conversation on him. I am not 100% sure he belongs ahead of Vern, but I'm not 100% sure he doesn't. I pretty well have them tied right now and Bus gets the nod over him this week strictly on gut instinct. It could change though.

11. Vern Stephens - a SS with power, and a perrennial MVP candidate? Sounds like a winner to me.

12. Bruce Sutter - not near as sure about him as I am with Rollie

13. Elston Howard - giving a catcher bonus as always. he made a big jump onto my ballot last election.

14. Bobby Veach - career value.

15. Chuck Klein - see Cravath

16. Pete Browning - just misses the ballot...made a nice move up this year

17. Jack Quinn - LONG career. solid reliever. PCL credit.

18. Ernie Lombardi - I can understand him not being rushed in, and I can even understand him not making it at all, but I found his overall lack of support rather amazing.

19. Lefty Gomez -

20. Johnny Pesky - obvious war credit
   33. thok Posted: April 10, 2007 at 09:59 PM (#2331502)
Dizzypaco--you're right, I don't distinguish between in-season durability and career longevity. That's just my personal preference as a voter, not an argument that I would try to convince others with.


Is there a particular reason why? Do you really think a player who played 110 games a season for 20 years (2200 games) has more career value than a player who played 157 games a season for 14 years (2198 games), all other things being equal?
   34. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: April 11, 2007 at 12:35 AM (#2331658)
>3) Luis Tiant - I don't understand the ballots that ignore modern pitchers. Tiant is another in the mold of Bunning, Pierce and Marichal.


Even without Ryan, I have had more pitchers from Tiant's era on my ballot than any other one. IOW, I don't think I have ignored that generation.

John - I wouldn't zero out the individual negative numbers, only when the total value ends up being negative.


I don't believe, for our purposes, in negative numbers for a player's career or season numbers, Joe.
   35. DL from MN Posted: April 11, 2007 at 01:28 PM (#2332091)
> I don't think I have ignored that generation

It's the down ballot non-support that I find frustrating. I've seen ballots where you go down 50 slots and you won't find a pitcher who played after WWII. To me that says you're not even considering those pitchers.
   36. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: April 11, 2007 at 03:52 PM (#2332223)
John, I meant don't zero -BRAR if there are offsetting +FRAA, for example.

Say a hitter is -20 BRAR, but +25 FRAA. He should be +5 for the season, not +25 (with the BRAR offset to 0).

That's all I meant. I definitely support zeroing out all negative 'total' seasons.
   37. Juan V Posted: April 11, 2007 at 06:09 PM (#2332367)
1997 ballot.

Review of my methodology: I use two systems, in one I use OPS+, with adjustments for stolen bases and shape of OPS, compared to a positional baseline. For pitchers, this is RA+, with adjustments for high IP seasons and relief pitching. In the other, I simply use the uberstats, mostly WARP but I'm integrating Win Shares into the analysis. For both systems, I use a JAWS-like formula to weigh peak and career.

Ironically, Easter meant I had less time to digest the newer stuff, since I was doing all kinds of other stuff and was away from my computer. I haven't fully digested the new MLEs, so expect some change in this for next year. Then again, I already was Bus Clarkson's best friend before them, so the change won't be that big

1) GAVVY CRAVATH: Guy could hit. With minor league credit, he has a near-Kelleresque offensive peak, with a much longer career.

2) BUS CLARKSON: As said above, this is with the old MLEs (just eyeballing them, the new ones jump him to #1. I should definitely take a good look at them for next year, since they could make him sneak in Carter/Blyleven territory). The old MLEs show him with well over 300 MLEed Win Shares, and an OPS+ around 120 from a SS/3B. The better part of his career, including his SS peak, took place before the Negro League scene got outta whack (although he was still well traveled). He was one of the reasons I decided to establish my new offense system, and under it he truly shines. I am discounting his 1940 a bit.

3) ROGER BRESNAHAN: His case has a good bit of context, as it depends on how you account for the brutal conditions for catchers of his time. I like the OBP-heavy production.

4) DWIGHT EVANS: Fans of positional balance are going to hate this ballot. The 127 OPS+ from a corner outfielder is admittedly unimpressive, but A: he had a long career (10569 plate appearances, plus whatever he lost to the strike) B: The peak is not too bad (depending on how you treat 1981), C: The defense and D: I have to vote for 15 guys ;-) He looks like Sutton, Hernandez and the other Evans in that, in a perfect world, he should probably wait a few years, but will get enough support to get in against a splintered backlog (for the record, my system rates him higher than those three).

5) LUIS TIANT: The 114 ERA+ over a little less than 3500 innings is unimpressive, specially considering his contemporaries, but he really shined with unearned runs (roughly 8.5% of total runs allowed, compared to about 11.5% for his era).

6) ALEJANDRO OMS: While the hitting value isn't as much as I once thought, there's too much Win Shares here to ignore. I flip-flopped him and Tiant, based on finding and correcting a typo on my spreadsheet.

7) TONY LAZZERI: Where's the support for a 120 OPS+ second baseman. Was the defense really that bad (and why it doesn't show up on the uberstats, which put him clearly north of Larry Doyle territory)? Is my estimation of the baseline for 1930s second basemen that far off?

8) DAVID CONCEPCIÓN: Averagish-bat, All-Time defense, and a really low baseline to compare him against. Clearly, my favorite among all the middle infielders with a similar profile.

9) JAKE BECKLEY: Pass.

10) VIC WILLIS: Almost 4000 innings at a 118 ERA+ put him pretty close to the average Hall of Fame starter (probably the average Hall of Meriter is a bit better). Unearned runs are about average for his era, so they don't change his standing too much.

11) BEN TAYLOR: Hernandez's eligibility and election made me take another look at him, and I was impressed. Will Clark is possibly a good comp, but he had a longer career and a lower baseline for comparision.

12) TONY PEREZ: The peak as a third baseman makes him electable to my eyes. It isn't that impressive, but it is good enough to be "carried" by his career.

13) BOB JOHNSON

14) CHARLEY JONES: I put them together, since I see them as very similar. Jones wins on peak, Johnson wins on career.

15) TOBY HARRAH: His bat, in his context, puts him in here. Had he been at least average with the glove, he would at least be on the top third of my ballot (and I probably wouldn't be his only supported). He's the player I once thought Fregosi was.
   38. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: April 11, 2007 at 06:27 PM (#2332396)
Juan V.--I like your ballot! A lot of guys I support--Bresnahan, Evans, Concepción (with his accent!), CJones, and my main main Toby Harrah! A few questions:

1. What's your assessment of Cravath's fielding, and how does that factor into your voting?
2. If Jones, why not Browning?
3. If Concepción (whom I needless to say adore), why not Rizzuto, Bancroft, and Pesky?
   39. Juan V Posted: April 11, 2007 at 06:29 PM (#2332401)
The other guys

16) ROLLIE FINGERS: Once again, he's squeezed out. A couple of spots on my ballot become available, and I find a couple of guys more deserving of them. Just his luck...
17) Bert Campaneris
18) Marvin Williams
19) EDD ROUSH: I was surprised to see him rank so low when I first changed systems, and my somewhat thin comments on him reflected that. Then, I found his ranking was because of a typo on his line. Still, he really could use all the games he lost.
20) George Scales
21) John McGraw
22) Jimmy Ryan
23) Bob Elliott
24) Vern Stephens
25) Thurman Munson
26) Bobby Bonds
27) Cesar Cedeño
28) Rusty Staub
29) PETE BROWNING: When you think about it, he's equivalent to a poor-fielding, short career corner outfielder with a 140ish OPS+. His peak is still good, but he needs more.
30) Dave Bancroft
31) Ken Singleton
32) Reggie Smith
33) Mickey Welch
34) Ron Cey
35) NELLIE FOX: Yeah, he rises a bit since I added Win Shares, but I still don't get it. With Concepción, Bancroft, Lundy (depending on the missing walks) and Rizzuto (depending on how much war credit he gets) around, why is he the one knocking on the doors of the Hall of Merit?
36) Darrell Porter
37) DICK LUNDY: With a mental adjustment for the missing walks. MLEs would be greatly appreciated, thank you very much.
38) Dick Bartell
39) Lefty Gomez
40) Ned Williamson
41) Ernie Lombardi
42) Cannonball Dick Redding
43) Jim Fregosi
44) Norm Cash
45) Larry Doyle
46) Chuck Klein
47) George Van Haltren
48) Frank Howard
49) Graig Nettles
50) Davey Lopes
51) Jim Rice
52) Sal Bando
53) Gene Tenace
54) Luis Aparicio
55) Buddy Bell
56) Orlando Cepeda
57) Rick Reuschel
58) Fred Lynn
59) Hugh Duffy
60) Elston Howard
61) Tommy Leach
62) Phil Rizzuto
63) Tommy John
64) Artie Wilson
65) Tommy Bridges
66) Ron Guidry
67) Bucky Walters
68) Bruce Sutter
69) Pie Traynor
70) Dan Quisenberry
71) DAVE PARKER: Nice peak, but it's too short, not historically high, and he has nothing outside of it.
72) Cheo Cruz
73) Chet Lemon
74) Dizzy Dean
75) Gil Hodges
76) Johnny Pesky
77) Chris Speier
78) Wilbur Wood
79) Lou Brock
   40. Juan V Posted: April 11, 2007 at 06:43 PM (#2332413)
1. What's your assessment of Cravath's fielding, and how does that factor into your voting?
2. If Jones, why not Browning?
3. If Concepción (whom I needless to say adore), why not Rizzuto, Bancroft, and Pesky?


1. Bad, but not "the sky is falling" bad. At least that's what the uberstats tell me. Most of the players around his offensive value (according to my first system) are already in, or have some serious defensive warts (this works for Clarkson and Bresnahan too).

2. Jones does much better with the uberstats, which I'm willing to attribute to his superior defense. I could be wrong, though.

3. How really terrible the 1970´s shortstops were with the bat, hence lowering Concepción's baseline and making his offense more valuable. There's also the issue of how much war credit I give (for example, I give Pesky peak-level credit, but I don't just average ´42 and ´46, which were out of line with the rest of his career).

Oops, I forgot Cannonball Dick was a required disclosure this year. Let's just say that I hate him as a candidate, not because he isn't deserving, but because how much of his case is speculation. He could easily belong 30 places higher, or 30 places lower.
   41. TomH Posted: April 11, 2007 at 06:44 PM (#2332414)
1997 Ballot, our (and my) 100th:
Review of Hanrahan’s value system: career value with a fairly high replacement level (slightly below average). Something like RCAP adjusted for defense and league strength, or WARP3 minus 2.5 wins per full year, or WS minus 11 per year adjusted for league quality. Small credit for pitcher “peak”, none for hittters. Some subjective estimating of ability across time and place. I rank the long primes higher than most of us.

(x) indicates where I voted for them last ballot
[y] indicates their consensus rank from last ballot

1- Dwight “Dewey” Evans {new}
A lot like that Evans guy we just elected. This is my other brother Darrell.
Played 20 years. Useful at worst (1972-73, 1990-91), Great at his best (early-mid 80s).
2- Jake Beckley (1) [6]
Great career.
3- John McGraw (2) [26]
Dominant 9 year prime. Provided huge advantage over every other MLB team at third base.
4- Bucky Walters (3) [12]
Faced strong opponents, pitched real well, hit real well too
5- Frank Chance (4) [62]
A great player on great teams. <u>Better hitter than Gavy Cravath AND Charley Jones.</u>
From 1903-1906, Chance collected 120 WS in only 503 games. Only Wagner had more (non-pitching) WS in that 4-year stretch, despite Chance only averaging 126 games per year.
6- Bob Johnson (5) [13]
Very good long prime; clearly better over a dozen year stretch than our other backlog OFers. One very good MinorLg year of credit also. Undervalued by Win Shares.
7- Roger Bresnahan (12) [17]
Best (MLB) catcher of his era plus years more. Position flexibility not a minus.
8- George Van Haltren (7) [18]
Speed and on-base skills made him very valuable in his day. Add in a long career, including pitching, and you get a HoMer.
9- Reggie Smith (off) [28]
Many fans: “Reggie Jackson = winner”
The Truth: “Reggie SMITH = winner”
One of the few guys underrated by general media AND by us! Give it up for the Real Reggie, HoMies!!
10- Dick Redding (8) [10]
11- Rollie Fingers (13) [8]
Post-season credit and inherited runners stranded get him on the ballot.
12- Louis Tiant (11) [24]
Four postseason starts. Averaged 8½ innings, 2.6 ERA, & his team won all 4 games. Take THAT, Bob Gibson and Jack Morris!
13- Bill Monroe (15) [41]
Dominant in his day.
14- Bob Elliot (off) [31]
Finally makes my ballot.
15- Rick Reuschel (off) [58]
As JoeD pointed out, a lot of small items (low unearned runs, effect of relievers following, stronger league, not-so-many great 80s pitchers) adds up. Matched with Burleigh Grimes, whom he noses out this ballot.

Newbie Mr. Parker. Great talent. Ya shoulda stayed away from the bad stuff, Dave.

Returning top 10ers:

Edd Roush – George Van Haltren began his career almost a year later in age than Roush. And ended his career a year earlier. In that shorter period of time, Van Haltren gained more Win Shares, and more WARP (either W1 or W3, take your pick) than Roush. Apparently a majority of our voters think both of the uber-stat systems are in error in their assessment. Apparently I disagree with the majority of our voters!

Nellie Fox is just off at #18; just behind Monroe.

Tony Perez – As a career candidate, he padded his numbers with 6 years of very little value. He’s a moderate peak/prime candidate. #21 for me.

Pete Browning – cover up his seasons before age 25, when he was in a very weak AA, and he looks like Babe Herman. Do we want to elect a guy based on dominating a minor league? Van Haltren had as good an offensive career from age 25 on, and was much better with the glove.

16 Grimes
17 Nettles
18 Fox
19 Bonds
20 D DiMaggio
21-26 Perez, N Cash, P Traynor, O Cepeda, D Concepcion, U Shocker
26-33 T Leach, P Browning, A Oms, W Schang, D Dean, B Clarkson, B Bell
34-40 R Cey, Munson, L Brock, P Rizzuto, D Newcombe, S Bando, Bancroft
41-46 M Welch, L Aparicio, R Maranville, T Bridges, E Lombardi, E Howard
47-53 L Easter, L Doyle, J Fregosi, C Mays, E Roush, C Jones, H Duffy

HOM honorees who would not make this year’s ballot, and approximate spot they would be on:
Averill, Medwick, Doerr, Grant, Galvin, Caruthers, Bunning, Sisler, Mendez, Allen, Waddell 20th–40th
D Moore, R Foster, R Faber around #55
H Jennings about #75
   42. Mark Donelson Posted: April 11, 2007 at 08:43 PM (#2332578)
I’m a peak voter. I rely heavily on WS for hitters, with OPS+ and a little WARP thrown in as well. For starting pitchers, I prefer PRAA, with some ERA+ adjustments and a little WS (which I don’t love for pitchers) for good measure. For relievers, I’ve adopted a mix of career total PRAA and year-by-year peak PRAA, with an emphasis on the latter, which seems to produce the most sensible results I can come up with.

I did two rejiggerings this time. The first was of shortstops relative to everyone else—I concluded (somewhat belatedly) that I’ve been doing them a serious disservice for some time. The result was a boost for various SS candidates, from small ones (Pesky, who I already had pretty high) to large ones (Rizzuto and Willie Wells, who I didn’t). The second was of recent players; I’d been a bit too conservative about placement of them. A few of them ended up moving up a few places; nothing terribly drastic, though.

I was also finally convinced by Dan R’s anti-Fox pleas to take a close look at Nellie. In the end, I realized I’d gone along with the consensus a bit too much, even against my own system’s findings. So Fox dropped off the ballot, to the mid-30s.

Finally, the Bus Clarkson dilemma. Well, if Eric’s new numbers are correct, he’ll be near the top of my 1998 ballot. But since there’s still some back and forth going on about the numbers in his thread, I don’t feel comfortable adding my voice to the “put him in now” chorus yet. After all, we can always elect him later, even this late in the process. But if we put him in and it turns out Eric made a mistake, we’re stuck. So I’ve tabled Clarkson for the moment.

pHOM: Singleton, Trout, Pesky

1997 ballot:

1. Dizzy Dean (pHOM 1967). Sure, it’s a really short peak (which is why he’s not even higher), but he was inarguably dominant during it. It’s just long enough for me.

2. Ed Williamson (pHOM 1931). A lost cause, but still the best of the backlog 3Bs, for my taste. As Sunny always points out, great peak on both offense and defense.

3. Elston Howard (pHOM 1976). The various extenuating circumstances of his career can’t hide the great (if short) peak.

4. Vic Willis (pHOM 1961). Not the most dominant pitcher of his era, perhaps, but he was in the mix with some of the all-time greats. Excellent peak.

5. Al Rosen (pHOM 1968). Another very short peak, but five great years, especially at this position, are enough for me.

6. Pete Browning (pHOM 1979). An offensive force, if not as much of one as the insane AA numbers make it appear. His non-AA years prove that he wasn’t just a soft-league fluke.

7. Gavvy Cravath (pHOM 1985). Every time I reevaluated outfielders, he would do a little better. Now I can’t believe he hasn’t been here all along. With minor-league credit, he’s got the peak I look for.

8. Luis Tiant (pHOM 1991). No, he wasn't Carlton/Niekro/Perry/Jenkins—too inconsistent, not good enough long enough—but he packed enough brilliance into several years to get my vote.

9. Charley Jones (pHOM 1976). As with Browning, his numbers are covered in the AA mist, but I’m convinced he played at a high enough level long enough for induction—at his best, he was pretty clearly a force.

10. Eddie Cicotte (pHOM 1972). Clear enough dominance for long enough, in my book. (I am fully counting his 1919 and 1920 stats.)

11. Edd Roush (pHOM 1988). He’s always been confusing, as there are all sorts of reasons to give him bonuses (mainly WWI) and demerits (mainly league quality). In the end, though, I’m a believer in his peak.

12. Hugh Duffy (pHOM 1930). Finally makes his way back to the ballot after a demotion some years ago. I still like his peak—just not as much as I used to when I was almost giving him elect-me spots.

13. Larry Doyle (pHOM 1995). Yes, it’s a pretty short peak, and the weakness of era is also noted—those are the two things that have kept him off my ballot this long. And yes, I know he’s more like a modern 3B than a 2B. But his five-year peak compares favorably with those guys, too.

14. Ken Singleton (pHOM 1997). He jumps a little on reassessment of recent players, both into my pHOM and onto my ballot for the first time. He’s another of the “I had no idea he was this good at the time” gang—I think he was the player most felt Rice was.

15. John McGraw (pHOM 1996). Another tiny peak, but it seems good enough to outstrip the recent 3B glut to me (and at this position, it’s not like the years outside the peak are useless). As with Doyle and Roush, I’ve long been reluctant to let him rise this far, but I’ve just run out of justifications for placing all three any lower.
   43. Mark Donelson Posted: April 11, 2007 at 08:47 PM (#2332584)
16-20: Redding (1975), Trout (1997), Pesky (1997), [Minoso], Oms (1996), F. Howard
21-25: [Reese], [K. Hernandez], Dw. Evans, Gomez (1987), [Da. Evans], Fingers, Bresnahan (1973), Rizzuto
26-30: Walters (1968), Nettles, Parker, Bando, McCormick
31-35: G. Burns, [Boyer], H. Smith, Fox, Berger, Sutter
36-40: [W. Wells], Cepeda, Avila, Quisenberry, H. Wilson, M. Marshall
41-45: Leach, Elliott, Shocker, Munson, Bo. Bonds
46-50: Reuschel, J. Ryan, Easter, Du. Leonard, T. Perez

Required Explanations and Newbies:

•Fox. As noted above, Nellie was close to becoming a ballot regular until my reconsideration of him this time. He was very good, but upon reflection, he doesn’t have the numbers to be where I had him, offensively or defensively.

•Beckley. I’m a peak voter. He’s not close.

•Fingers. A tough nut to crack, but in the end I feel he doesn’t quite have the peak I’m looking for. All the other factors pump up his standing though, and he hovers right near my eventual in/out line for my pHOM. He’s at #26 right now.

•Perez. The fact that most of his best offensive years coincide with his 3B years is compelling, but to this peak voter, not much else is. I think Cepeda was still marginally better, and I’m not all that high on Cepeda. He’s at #50.

•Redding. Not quite the peak (as far as we can tell, anyway) of my favorite pitching candidates, but he’s very close. At #16, he’s just off my ballot, and like a few guys (Roush, McGraw, Doyle), I don’t know if I can keep him off much longer (luckily, Carter and Blyleven are coming along to take care of that).

•Dwight Evans. Another of the all-underrated club, and another guy I seem to like slightly less than the majority here do. I do agree that he was the best of the Rice-Lynn-Evans OF, by a decent margin, even. He’s got a strong peak, and a solid career; he debuts at #21, and will likely make my pHOM shortly.

•Parker. Much as with Jim Rice, his case relies almost entirely on his early peak. Luckily for him, he’s got a better one—he was a truly fearsome player for a few years. But it’s too few even for me, and as a corner outfielder who didn’t field that well, he can’t build on that at all. He still manages to debut at #28.

•Griffey and Templeton, though they had their points, aren’t close to my top 50.
   44. Paul Wendt Posted: April 11, 2007 at 11:54 PM (#2332863)
Paul - Are you asking me why Oliver above Berger or why both above Keller?
Also, there may be a bunch of others who have one, two or all of Cy Williams, Otis and Camilli higher than I do, but most voters' lists aren't displayed that deeply.


rawagman,
I am not really quibbling with the rankings but with (1) the particular assessment of Oliver over Berger on "more convincing peak" and better glove grounds. To me that doesn't fit what you say about Berger in comment on Keller. Because I don't think Oliver was good enough to beat (on peak) anyone who was a real masher and played CF well! At best, I think, Al Oliver played CF well. Your ultimate ranking of Al Oliver, not Berger or Keller, is the one that astonishes me, but granting (which I don't) what seems to be your assessment of Oliver at peak, I would rank him even higher.
(BTW, I would be one of the best friends of Berger but not the best, not quite so good a friend as you are. Al Oliver came along before a few months when I missed much of the discussion here, following only selected threads. That discussion of Oliver upgraded him in my opinion. I no longer believe that he was a bad makeshift CF, as I did early in this millenium.)
So I am quibbling with your ballot but only with the explanation and the Olover that I infer in it. Of course I understand that a prime/career voter who believes Oliver played in the stronger league when quality was generally high would have him on the 15-man ballot. But I'm surprised to see him on a peakier ballot.
   45. OCF Posted: April 12, 2007 at 04:56 AM (#2333150)
1997 Ballot. My ballot is already overloaded with career-candidate or prime-candidate "bats", and the most attractive new candidate this year is yet another one of those. Dan R. would tell me that I'm overrating 60's and early 70's candidates over 50's and 80's candidates - maybe he's right, but for now I'll stay with my (not necessarily compatible with each other) systems.

Next year's ballot will start to bring some new and different faces: a couple of pitchers, at least one of whom is obvious (Blyleven, Stieb), a catcher (Carter), a "never thought he was a candidate but maybe we should look" glove (Randolph) and even a couple of "bats" with some very big seasons although not careers (Guerrero, Clark). And the '99 ballot will give us plenty of "gloves" and pitchers.

1. Larry Doyle (4, 5, 4, 2, 1) Big hitter in low scoring times - nearly as good a hitter as the backlog outfielders. Mediocre defense, but occupied the position for a long time. Some other voters' comments have portrayed him as not mediocre, but historically bad, a "statue." If so, why did the defense-obsessed writers vote him a Chalmers award? I tend to doubt that John McGraw would have put up with that bad a defensive liability.
2. George Van Haltren (7, 8, 7, 6, 4) He did accomplish quite a bit in his career. Has now been on my ballot for 85 years. Sam Thompson has what could have been his spot in the HoM.
3. Tommy Bridges (8, 9, 8, 7, 5) RA+ PythPat 190-124. Walters had a higher peak, but Bridges was a terrific pitcher. First time I've given him an "elect me" vote, but everyone is creeping up the list.
4. Bucky Walters (9, 10, 9, 8, 6) Offense-adjusted RA+ PythPat 197-148. More peak than Bridges, but the one thing RA+ doesn't account for directly is defensive support and he seems to have had plenty of that - so I knocked him down a couple of notches.
5. Orlando Cepeda (10, 11, 10, 9, 7) The Baby Bull. Cha-Cha. There are plenty of places to find fault: indifference to defense, selfishness about his role with the Giants, injury history, early decline. But the early decline sticks out because the start was so good. And his NL was a strong league.
6. Norm Cash (11, 12, 11, 10, 8) One year does not make a peak (or a prime). But oh, what a year. Actually, he's on my ballot as a career candidate, although missing games in each year whittles away at his career value.
7. Dwight Evans (new) Not Hondo's offense, and (to me, this will be controversial) not terribly different from Brock's offensive value over his whole career, albeit with a different shape. But defense counts for something, even in corner outfielders.
8. Frank Howard (12, 13, 12, 11, 9) Instead of talking about what he might have accomplished in another time and place, I'll talk about the value of what he did do in run-scarce circumstances.
9. Lou Brock (13, 14, 13, 12, 10) Low-peak, career-value candidate, severely underrated by OPS+, but of little defensive value. Placement is too high - the remedy for that is more new candidates at the top.
10. Sal Bando (14, 15, 14, 13, 11) A hair ahead of Bob Elliott.
11. Bob Elliott (15, 16, 15, 14, 12) Roughly the equivalent of Dixie Walker as a hitter, plus 1300+ games of pretty good 3B.
12. Tony Perez (16, 17, 16, 15, 13) A little less a hitter (mostly that's a about prime-shoulder seasons) than Staub, did play a fair amount of 3B.
13. Rusty Staub (17, 18, 17, 16, 14) Reggie Smith plus some hang-around time. Not Frank Howard's peak, but some peak anyway.
14. Luis Tiant (18, 19, 18, 17, 15) RA+ equivalent 224-164. A 60's pitcher who re-invented himself as a 70's pitcher. A major participant in the 1968 "year of the pitcher" festivities. But it's the 70's career that has more value.
15. Reggie Smith (19, 20, 19, 18, 16) A very, very good player who always seemed to wind up on winning teams.
16. Jake Beckley (20, 21, 20, 19, 17) Not much peak, long career. Was he really better than Vernon? Maybe defense, maybe a position-scarcity argument. Offensively, I don't see it.
17. Tommy John (---, 20, 18) RA+ Pythpat record of 281-244 with no big years. Compare to Tiant: the difference of 57-80 is pretty much a wash, and Tiant had some big years.
18. Darrell Porter (-, 22, 21, 21, 19) Better than Munson. Nearly as good a hitter, in context, as Lombardi.
19. Graig Nettles (--, 22, 22, 20) Interesting candidate, but not enough of a hitter for me to put him with Bando and Elliott.
20. Ken Singleton (21, 23, 23, 23, 21) A much better candidate than contemporary opinion would have made him. Earl Weaver's kind of hitter. But we can't let our enthusiasm for another unrecognized ballplayer overcome the fact that he's just another "bat," another corner outfielder of limited defensive value. Compared to Reggie Smith, he's got the better peak but less career - and I am more of a career voter. So he goes behind Smith. And as for that peak: I like Hondo's better.
21. Ron Cey (-, 24, 25, 24, 22) The best of that Dodger infield, although Lopes was also awfully good. Doesn't match Elliot and Bando as a hitter, so I'll slot him in behind them.
22. Rollie Fingers (22, 25, 25, 25, 23) I'll do a more extensive reevaluation when we get to Gossage.
23. Gene Tenace (23, 26, 26, 26, 24) Only half a catcher, but a better hitter than our other half-catchers (Bresnahan, Schang)
24. Dick Redding (24, 27, 27, 27, 25)
25. Luis Aparicio (25, 28, 28, 28, 26) More games at SS than anyone else, 500 SB with a good percentage.
26. Bobby Bonds (26, 29, 29, 29, 27) I like leadoff hitters, so I want to vote for him. But it's just not quite enough career. Enough peak could overcome that objection, but he doesn't have Jimmy Wynn's peak.
27. Hugh Duffy (27, 30, 30, 30, 28) I did vote for him for nearly 50 years, but we've just had too many good candidates since then.
28. Rick Reuschel (----, 29) Not that different from Koosman in my system so far, but I haven't really corrected for defensive support.
29. Rabbit Maranville (26, 28, --, 30)
30. Bus Clarkson (-----) I really need more time than I've had to more fully digest what's been going on in his thread.

All of the top-tenners belong to our long-term backlog. Yes, I know the arguments; no, I'm not accidentally overlooking anyone. One particular case: I supported Stovey over Browning long ago because he seemed much better at scoring runs; Browning was nothing special there.

Dave Parker: I'd probably take him over Sam Thompson but not necessarily over Jose Cruz. No speculation on what he might have been, just a rating of who he was.

Ken Griffey, Sr.: Felipe Alou is a good comp. Doesn't match up that well to Manush, Henrich, Hooper, Oliva, and various other people I'm not voting for.

Garry Templeton: A good player for a long time. I still haven't had time to devote to that "shortstops of the generation" project. I don't think it got any easier to find a shortstop who could both field and hit in moving from Concepcion's generation to the next one, but all of a sudden they were there: Templeton (although he was over-hyped), Trammell, Yount, Ripken, Thon (until the beaning), even eventually Ozzie. But there were plenty of Buddy Biancalanas and Argenis Salazars around, too, and occasional efforts to make someone like Howard Johnson or Hubie Brooks play SS.
   46. OCF Posted: April 12, 2007 at 05:47 AM (#2333165)
Through 15 ballots, I haven't spotted a completely disjoint pair yet - but this is the sort of year where that could happen. The only candidate with more than one #1 vote is one who got a total of 53 points last year.

I think it's very hard to maintain a ballot order that's free of internal inconsistencies, and that more the backlog rises, the more the problems with everyone's ballots get exposed. Every ballot posted so far has something on it that looks a little weird to me, and I'm not exempting my own.
   47. DCW3 Posted: April 12, 2007 at 07:40 AM (#2333187)
Garry Templeton: A good player for a long time. I still haven't had time to devote to that "shortstops of the generation" project. I don't think it got any easier to find a shortstop who could both field and hit in moving from Concepcion's generation to the next one, but all of a sudden they were there: Templeton (although he was over-hyped), Trammell, Yount, Ripken, Thon (until the beaning), even eventually Ozzie. But there were plenty of Buddy Biancalanas and Argenis Salazars around, too, and occasional efforts to make someone like Howard Johnson or Hubie Brooks play SS.

You know, I was reminded today of the whole Concepcion debate, about how hard it was for a long time to find a decent-hitting SS, when I read a blurb in the paper mentioning that Adam Everett had just set the Astros franchise record for most career home runs by a shortstop. (And when you think "big-time power-hitting shortstops," who doesn't immediately think "Adam Everett"?) With his 34th career home run.
   48. rawagman Posted: April 12, 2007 at 07:59 AM (#2333190)
Paul - I appreciate your comments. As I don't follow uber-stats for philosophical reasons, I may sometimes seem unjustified in my rankings. After starting out as a strong peak voter, this project has truly refined my thinking about the game and I now try to balance career, prime and peak as best as I can, using traditional stats, rate stats, contemporary opinion and personal philosophy. I prefer the players who have a good balance of all aspects, as I feel Oliver does, but am willing to vote for players who were strong in two of the three. Players who suffer in my system are those whom I feel excel in only one of the three (see Keller (peak) and Beckley (career)). When a player has two of the three, I will often prefer the one with the peak over the one without it.
All that being said, Oliver is the one guy who most makes me check myself. He's on the cusp of the PHOM, but I want to be 10% sure before putting him in. He may in fact be may "worst" member of my PHOM when all is said and done.
   49. Rick A. Posted: April 12, 2007 at 11:03 AM (#2333197)
I tend to lean towards peak/prime, although a pure career candidate can sneak through at an important defensive position. I'm an anti-timeline, pennant-is-a-pennant voter. I give credit for wars, holdouts, strikes, blacklisting and players being in the minors when they're clearly MLB caliber, as well as NEL credit. I'm solidly in the WS camp, although I'll also look at OPS+, ERA+, IP, PA and ranking among contemporaries at their position. I do think that WS does miss on occasion, and I give a subjective bump to candidates who I think WS is off on.

Some changes to my ballot this week. I realized that I forgot to adjust for the dh. This causes some AL hitters to jump up in my standings. Ken Singleton and Thurman Munson both go into my PHOM after the adjustment.

PHOM
Ken Singleton
Thurman Munson
Don Newcombe - Still like him better than Pierce.

1997 Ballot
1. Charley Jones – Truly great hitter who missed 2 years in his prime. Elected PHOM in 1921.
2. Pete Browning – Great hitter. Elected PHOM in 1925
3. Vic Willis – Very good pitcher. I like him better than Waddell. Elected PHOM in 1945.
4. Dick Redding –Elected PHOM in 1968
5. Hugh Duffy – Better than Van Haltren and Ryan, Elected PHOM in 1970
6. Edd Roush – Better than Carey. Elected PHOM in 1975.
7. Burleigh Grimes – Higher peak than Rixey. Elected PHOM in 1961
8. Bucky Walters Very high peak. Elected PHOM in 1972
9. Alejandro Oms – Jumps up some on this ballot. Elected PHOM in 1978.
10. Ed Williamson – I’ll take him over Boyer. Elected PHOM in 1958
11. Ken Singleton – Jumps onto ballot after I adjust for the DH. Elected PHOM in 1997.
12. Dizzy Dean – Short career, but high peak. Koufax lite. Elected PHOM in 1973.
13. Elston Howard – Underrated. Elected PHOM in 1985
14. Gavvy Cravath – Damn good hitter. Elected PHOM in 1988.
15. Bruce Sutter – Very close to Fingers. I like his peak. Elected PHOM in 1994

Required Disclosures
Jake Beckley Another year, Another explanation that he doesn't have enough peak.
Nellie Fox - Mid 20's on my ballot. I like Monroe a little better.
Rollie Fingers - Just misses my ballot
Tony Perez - If he was a pure third baseman, he'd probably make my ballot. As a pure first baseman, he'd be a little above Beckley. As a 25%/75% split, he's not near my ballot.

Off the ballot
16-20 Bresnahan,Fingers,Munson,Newcombe,Leach
21-25 Easter,Rosen,Bond,Mays,Monroe
26-30 Tiernan,Fox,Nettles,Cooper,Elliott
31-35 Johnson,Evans,Traynor,Scales,FHoward
36-40 HSmith,Shocker,Bando,Bell,MWilliams
41-45 Doyle,FJones,Perez,Cey,HWilson
46-50 Rizzuto,Van Haltren,Ryan,Schang,McGraw
   50. DL from MN Posted: April 12, 2007 at 02:00 PM (#2333258)
> I want to be 10% sure before putting him in.

There's a burden of proof that shouldn't be difficult.

"I tend to lean towards peak/prime, although a pure career candidate can sneak through at an important defensive position. I'm an anti-timeline, pennant-is-a-pennant voter. I give credit for wars, holdouts, strikes, blacklisting and players being in the minors when they're clearly MLB caliber, as well as NEL credit. I'm solidly in the WS camp, although I'll also look at OPS+, ERA+, IP, PA and ranking among contemporaries at their position."

Can I introduce you to Bus Clarkson?
   51. rawagman Posted: April 12, 2007 at 03:13 PM (#2333309)
DL - I think it's pretty clear that I missed out an a very relevant 0 there.
I want to be one hundred percent positive about Al Oliver as a player holding up my baseball philosophy before enshrining him in my personal hall of merit.
   52. DL from MN Posted: April 12, 2007 at 03:46 PM (#2333334)
Sorry, I was a little dry there. Don't take it the wrong way.
   53. OCF Posted: April 12, 2007 at 08:53 PM (#2333591)
I read a blurb in the paper mentioning that Adam Everett had just set the Astros franchise record for most career home runs by a shortstop. (And when you think "big-time power-hitting shortstops," who doesn't immediately think "Adam Everett"?) With his 34th career home run.

Dickie Thon took over as the regular Houston SS in 1982 at the age of 24, and hit his first 3 HR for the Astros that year. He then had a huge power spike at the age of 25 and hit 20 HR in 1983. The beaning happened in early April, 1984. It directly cost him all but 5 games of 1984 and half of 1985. He hit 6 HR in 1985, 3 in 1986, and one in 1987 before leaving Houston as a free agent. His power did return once more with 15 HR in 1989 for the Phillies at the age of 31. So, 33 of Thon's 71 career HR came as an Astro - and that's the team record that Everett broke.
   54. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: April 12, 2007 at 09:07 PM (#2333601)
A team record that should stand just as long as it takes for the Astros to develop a SS who can hit a little plus 2 to 3 years.
   55. Willie Mays Hayes Posted: April 12, 2007 at 11:40 PM (#2333697)
1997 Ballot:

1. Pete Browning - I'm convinced he was the 1880's Dick Allen. He belongs.
2. Hugh Duffy - I like Browning better after looking closer, but his glove makes him elite.
3. Bucky Walters - How did I miss him for so long? Underrated by the electorate.
4. Thurman Munson - I'm sold that he was very similar to Freehan.
5. Dwight Evans - Good WARP3, Good OPS+, Good Defense = HOM'er.
6. Buddy Bell - He's very close to Evans in my system, just a bit better than Nettles.
7. Graig Nettles - WARP likes him, and so do I. A poor man's Brooks Robinson.
8. Alejandro Oms - I was missing a lot on him for a while. Nice player. Moves down after re-examining DH-era hitters.
9. Rusty Staub - A mix of peak/prime career. I like him better than Beckley, but not near as much as Duffy/Browning.
10. Norm Cash - Good stick and glove at 1B, similar to Hernandez, but a bit better hitter, and a bit worse fielder.
11. Chuck Klein - Similar to Howard, but how much of it was the Baker Bowl? Better fielder, though.
12. Tommy John - Just a smidge below Sutton.
13. Elston Howard - He confuses me. My system doesn't like him nearly this much thanks to the intricacies of his career, but my head says he's better than those below him.
14. Phil Rizzuto - The Scooter makes his debut on my ballot. A re-eval of second baseman and shortstops is to thank, and with War Credit, he's aboard. Having him here is a huge credit, as even with the re-evaluation, light hitting glove guys still get less respect than some others here give.
15. Bus Clarkson - Eric's newest MLE's seem to indicate he was similar to Buddy Bell with SS years in there. Why do I have him here then? Call it shiny new toy syndrome.

16-20: Fingers, Perez, Beckley, Taylor, Concepcion

Required Disclosures:

Fox does not have enough (any?) bat value.
Roush played in a weak league, missed a lot of time and doesn't really suit my fancy. He's in the 30's. I like Chris Fluit's JD Drew comp.
Fingers is #16. I don't think we need to elect any relievers between Wilhelm and Gossage. Fingers was not dominant enough.
Beckley is #18, just no peak there.
Perez is #17, not sold on the defense, and didn't hit as well as he aged. Not a huge peak, either.
Redding - I've had him real high before, but I see him as an Orel Hershiser type as I've reviewed the evidence, and that slots him at 25 right now.
   56. sunnyday2 Posted: April 13, 2007 at 04:22 PM (#2334071)
is this weird or what? Or maybe not? I mean 17 ballots as of Friday almost noon (CDT)? And not a single new ballot for 41 hours? Seems like we would usually be closer to double that.

I guess everybody is just so wrapped up in the Don Imus thing....
   57. rawagman Posted: April 13, 2007 at 04:35 PM (#2334083)
Rob__Wood recently posted a ballot on the discussion page. He didn't mention it as being a prelim, so it might be that he meant to have posted to the actual ballot page. If he isn't paying attention, maybe someone can contact him about that?
sunny - I noticed that on the ballot's opening day. Much fewer first day posters than the norm. Maybe some people took advantage of the long weekend for a little vacation time?
   58. TomH Posted: April 13, 2007 at 04:44 PM (#2334091)
can I vote 3 times to make up for the missing ones? I think I'm listed in Chicago as an eligible voter :)
   59. DL from MN Posted: April 13, 2007 at 05:07 PM (#2334117)
I was looking over Sean Gilman's ballot and noticed he had 7 HoM pitchers that wouldn't make his top 15 in this election. He had NO pitchers in his top 15 and the only other pitchers mentioned in the top 25 were Bucky Walters and Dick Redding. When I have too many of one type of player on my ballot I can usually justify it because I have an equal number of players below my in-out line. In this case though it appears that Sean believes we have too many pitchers in the HoM. I'm struggling trying to figure out how Sean justifies that 27% is too much pitching and 24% is a more appropriate number when I believe 27% is much too low. I've targeted 4 pitchers for every 9 position players or 31%.
   60. DL from MN Posted: April 13, 2007 at 05:10 PM (#2334119)
Taxes are due ASAP, that could be sucking up valuable voting time.
   61. Rob_Wood Posted: April 13, 2007 at 05:13 PM (#2334123)
Jeez - I am a dunce. I meant to post my ballot on the ballot thread, not the discussion thread.

Could someone copy it over for me?

Thanks much.
   62. sunnyday2 Posted: April 13, 2007 at 05:13 PM (#2334124)
>Taxes are due ASAP

Oh ####.
   63. DL from MN Posted: April 13, 2007 at 05:32 PM (#2334133)
1997 ballot from ROB WOOD

1. Jake Beckley - luv the career, though peakless
2. George Van Haltren - deserving star of the underrepresented 1890s
3. Graig Nettles - super fielder; I am surprised by his lack of support
4. Bob Johnson - solid hitter, solid career (w/minor lg credit)
5. Bobby Bonds - good combo of peak and career (where's the luv?)
6. Nellie Fox - very good second baseman for a long time
7. Tony Perez - good career though he was barely an adequate 3B defensively
8. Dwight Evans - good career and good defensive right fielder
9. Rusty Staub - good peak + good career (similar to Perez)
10. Tommy Bridges - luv the strikeouts & win pct with minor league and wwii credit
11. Bob Elliott - mired with woeful Pirates and Braves
12. Edd Roush - underrated, very good centerfielder
13. Charley Jones - great player, with lockout credit
14. Reggie Smith - boost from center field play and japan
15. Chuck Klein - great peak even park-adjusted
----------
16-20 RMaranville, HWilson, LAparicio, PTraynor, BClarkson

Not voting for Browning (around 100th), Fingers (around 50th), and Redding (around 50th).
   64. Mike Webber Posted: April 13, 2007 at 06:03 PM (#2334161)
It’s National Poetry Month!

What is the best baseball poem? Casey at the bat?

Base Ball by Anonymous
The Ball once struck off,
Away flies the Boy
To the next destin'd Post,
And the Home with Joy.
Published: A Pretty Little Pocket Book 1744

Which is really weird because this is before Abner Doubleday was born,

Or maybe this one:
Baseball’s Sad Lexicon
These are the saddest of possible words:
"Tinker to Evers to Chance."
Trio of bear cubs, and fleeter than birds,
Tinker and Evers and Chance.
Ruthlessly pricking our gonfalon bubble,
Making a Giant hit into a double-
Words that are heavy with nothing but trouble:
"Tinker to Evers to Chance."
by Franklin Pierce Adams

Yes Dr. C – I am expecting to see an all-poetry team out of you this balloting period.

1) EDD ROUSH – 314 Win Shares, four MVP type seasons, 7 seasons 20+ Win Shares. I wondered after the last election if it was my role to beef up support Edd to cement his going in, but I decided that was silly. I’m not Dick Thompson with Wes Ferrell. I don’t have any personal stake in Edd, I’m not a Reds fan, never had him in a DMB/Strat historical league or anything like that. He just kept popping up on my spreadsheets and I couldn’t find any reason to not like him. I see his flaws, (well not the weak league argument – weak compared to what? The minor league credit some guys get? The Negro Leagues? The AL in WW2? Every non-integrated league?) but, I also see his big peak, accumulation of career value, and think he is a top 20 at his position major leaguer at a key defensive position. To me that is IN, maybe just barely but in.
2) TOMMY LEACH – 328 Win Shares, only one MVP type season, 8 seasons 20+ Win Shares. Good peak, excellent defensive player at third and in centerfield.
3) ROGER BRESNAHAN Best catcher of his era. Like Leach a combo-position player that is hard to sum up what his contributions were, because he doesn’t nest into one position.
4) PHIL RIZZUTO – 231 Win Shares, one MVP type seasons, 7 seasons 20+ Win Shares. with a conservative 60 or so win shares during the war, I move him ahead of Sewell. Same arguments as Nellie Fox, only with a 3-year hole in his career at ages 25 to 27, plus a bad return to MLB in 1946.
5) George Van Haltren Huge Career, plus short schedule. Even clipping his pitching credit.
6) TONY PEREZ 349 Win Shares, three MVP type seasons, 8 seasons 20+ Win Shares. Hits all my targets for a top of the ballot candidate, long career, big seasons, a top 20 player at his position.
7) SAL BANDO - 283 Win Shares, two MVP type seasons, 9 seasons 20+ Win Shares. I believe he was better than Ken Boyer, but his home parks helped disguise it. The big seasons are what puts him ahead of Boyer.
8) NELLIE FOX –304 Win Shares, two MVP type seasons, 9 seasons 20+ Win Shares. Good Black Ink and Gray Ink scores. Good defender at a key defensive slot.
9) ALE OMS Based on the info we have I would consider him just above the in/out line for outfielders.
10) LOU BROCK – 348 Win Shares, three MVP type seasons, 11 straight seasons 20+ Win Shares. As a career voter I’ll put him here. Batting leadoff he had great opportunity to rack up counting stats.
11) Dwight Evans 347 Win Shares, 2 MVP type seasons (with ’81), 8 20+ win share seasons.
12) KEN SINGLETON 302 win shares, 3 mvp type seasons, 7 20+ win share seasons. Big Seasons sneak him onto the bottom of my ballot.
13) ORLANDO CEPEDA 310 Win Shares, 2 MVP type seasons, 9 seasons 20+ win shares.
14) Larry Doyle 289 Win Shares, 1 MVP type season, 8 seasons 20+ Win Shares.
15) CARL MAYS 256 Win Shares, 2 MVP type seasons, 8 20 + Win share seasons – Karl M and I agree, he’s the last man on the ballot this time.


Disclosures:

Rollie Fingers – not convinced that there is enough leverage available to make his career and peak values big enough to put him on the ballot. I have been thinking about what the minimum amount of career win shares it would take to make my ballot. Koufax has the fewest of any player I have voted for, 194 and he had 3 MVP type seasons.

Pete Browning – Heck of a hitter, short seasons, suspect league, suspect fielding, suspect teammate.

Cannon Ball Redding – Have waivered on him, I have voted for him in the past.

Jake Beckley – I like Perez and Cepeda better, but I like Beckley better than Cash.

Newbies – Dave Parker – if he had just walked away after 1979 – or maybe been thrown in jail – joking! – the Dobie Moore crowd would be on him like stink on Imus.

Ken Griffey Sr. – Maybe its because the Kentucky Derby has been coming up, but I have been thinking about Sires of baseball players – Griffey would have to be in the discussion. Dave LaRoche is entering the argument, but Bobby Bonds has to be considered the leader among 1970’s athletes though, right?
   65. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: April 13, 2007 at 07:10 PM (#2334218)
Sunny plays Hungry Joe in post 56, and I'm playing the general who raises the missions again. You're welcome.

1997 Ballot

I graduated this year. Pavement put out its last really good record. SUV and cellphone ownership were no where near their currently annoying levels (though in fairness SUV usage is apparently declining). Anyway, those were days. I could behave irresponsibly and get away with it, and I took a 120 day jaunt around the country to visit things like New Mexico’s Jesus Tortilla and the tallest manmade structure in North America. Not to mention the white buffalo. It was a good time. Then I had to get a job and the proverbial sheisse schlachte the fan.

Anyway, in our 1997, I’ve taken a three-week trip all around the minor leagues, international leagues, and Negro Leagues. I’ve used a new MLE method to re-evaluate some remaining candidates, and as I’ve done so, I’ve once again discovered the ultimate truth: you’re never as smart, correct, or thorough as you think you are. All you can do is what you do and try to get some good feedback.

Well, I’ve gotten great feedback, thanks everyone! I hope that once I get all the revised-revised-revised figures in place that they will be helpful in some fashion. I think there’s still work to do, especially on the discounts, but as always everyone should make whatever adjustments they feel are necessary. Mostly I just wanted to say that I appreciate everyone’s help with this stuff, and that I’m sorry if it feels like I’m dragging you through the muck with them.

Also, I made a change to my system after last election. I decentralized some of the credit I give to peak league-dominant performance. I was getting some wacky stuff in my rankings, that I couldn’t defend. Ratcheting down that aspect (which is about 1/7th of the whole enchilada) turned out a more reasonable outcome….IMO. Still my ballot is full of old, old guys. I don’t like that. On the other hand, I’m not exactly wild about newer fellows like Kaat, John, Bando, Nettles, Harrah, Fox, or Dewey.

Truth be told, I have no strong sense of the worthiness of any of these candidates relative to one another. Even though some of them rank somewhat highly for me. Too many contradictions, too much doubt. This is my Hamlet ballot I guess.

1. Wilbur Cooper: Dominant NL portsider of the late 1910s-early 1920s. This guy was in the (retroactive) Cy Young chase every single year for a good long while in the late teens and early 1920s, battling Old Pete, Hippo, and Dolf for several years. I like pitchers who show dominance for a good stretch, and he’s one.

2. Ken Singleton: He’s the best player in the AL of the very late 1970s, and a good long while best RF in the AL. And while he might not have much defensive value, he’s doing a great job of walking and hitting with power, lots of SEC. Plenty of All-Star and MVP type seasons.

3. Alejandro Oms: These aren’t my numbers, by the way, which tells you that this vote is not just a Doc C special. An outstanding CFer of the 1920s in the NgLs and CWL. Oms may not have a superior peak (it’ll be a long time before we can assess that with a lot of certainty), but we know now that he had a ton of career value to go with enough peak that he’s a wonderful prime/career candidate.

4. Larry Doyle: Dominant 2B of the NL of the 1910s, good peak/prime, and an argument for having been the best player in the NL for a brief time.

5. Elston Howard: After re-evaluation of his pre-MLB seasons, I think credit is only realistic for 1953-1954 at most. After adjusting for this, he drops back to just ahead of Tralee, not near as high as I had him previously.

6. Bucky Walters: You know the story---I like pitcher peaks, and he's got one, even when dampened for the war.

7. Leroy Matlock: He’s back. Many years ago now I saw Matlock as the best available pitcher. My consensus scores plummeted…. But in reviewing NgL players, I looked back on his thread, and I don’t really understand why I lost my nerve on him. The MLEs look HOMable, even if you see that 1937 season as a little less than 43 WS. I think we’ve whiffed on him, and that someday when we’ve got more better information, he’ll be one of the “lost” guys that no one talked about who ends up as a HOMer.

8. Tommy Leach: Pick your poison. As a CF, he’s not got enough peak to get on the ballot. But as a 3B, he’s a fabulous career candidate with enough at the top end to be among the top dozen 3Bs. Splitting it down the middle, he’s a 3B/CF hybrid with outstanding seasons at both positions, a nice, long career, and enough peak/prime to emerge as a downballot candidate.

9. Norm Cash: I don’t know whether we should elect him or not, but I know he’s highly qualified. In a perfectly balanced positional world, he would remain just outside for the foreseeable future. But he is juuuuust outside. So close that I have trouble distinguishing his relative stature versus Roush and Duffy who are similarly qualified but juuuuust on the other side of the line.

Then comes the amazing outsized CF glut…

10. Edd Roush: He and Duffy score the same in this system, and they are right at the very bottom edge of the HOM-level pack of CFs. This rating only includes holdout credit tangentially as a tie-breaker between Edd and Hugh.

11. Hugh Duffy: Lots of All-Star and MVP type seasons, a good run as his league's best position player, plenty of adjusted career value. He'd be a perfectly fine selection, but he’s certainly a borderliner.

12. Sal Bando: Same old, same old here. You’ve read my thoughts for ten years.

13. Rick Reuschel: I don’t always agree with Joe’s pitcher rankings, but I think his points about Reuschel viz Tiant are interesting. Big Daddy presents hope to all mesmorphs…people like me.

14. Luis Tiant: He’s near the end of my ballot, and given the chronologically unbalanced feel of it, I think he’s as good as anyone else from the more-modern era to go on the board. He’s a highly effective pitcher whom others have talked about at much greater length than I. No promises he or Reuschel will stay here next year, I’m extremely ambivalent about them, just as I’m extremely ambivalent about Dean and Grimes, who my systems suggest I should vote for, but who I can’t pull the trigger on.

15. Mercifully, the last slot. Ahimsa rules this day, so the Oscar goes to Thurman Munson. Superior catcher of the 1970s, he’s just above my in/out line and has been waiting to bubble up for years. When I review this ballot next year any of these last several candidates could move on or off of it; I’m just extremely unsure about the bottom end right now. Wait, that sounds a funny. Oh, forget it.

NEW GUYS
-Dwight Evans: Even with DH adjustment, Evans is just on the out side of in. A top-shelf member of the HOVG, he’s somewhat like the Beckley of RF. He’s got more peak than Becks, but he’s a prime/career guy whose peak is very soft for his position. I like him better than Staub or Brock among long-career corner OFs.

-Dave Porker: I mean Parker. Six awesome years, then lots of mediocrity…or worse. My system loves all the big years and over-recommends him to me. I don’t buy it. He’s a member of the Great Women of Literature Team:

C Darrell “Katherine Anne” Porter
1B Derek “Harper” Lee
2B Max “Elizabeth” Bishop
3B Ray “Dorothy” Dandridge
SS Hubie “Gwendolyn” Brooks
RF Dave “Dorothy” Parker
CF Pete “Elizabeth Barrett” Browning
LF Bob “George” Elliott
DH Mike “Amy” Lowell
SP Johnny “Toni” Morrison
RP Donnie “Maryanne” Moore

-Senior Griffey: Whatever happened to his game around 1981-1982 killed his HOF/HOM chances. He lost enough to go from threat for 3000 to threat for 2500….

-Gary Templeton: Chris Speier round two…this time he might mean it.


RETURNING FAVORITES
-Nellie Fox: Just off my ballot due to increasing ambivalence about him based on passionate arguments on each side.
-Pete Browning: Just off my ballot, and I was probably wrong about his HOMiness previously.
-Rollie Fingers: I think we'll be overpopulating RP if we choose Fingers and Gossage from their era. Or just one of them?
-Jake Beckley: Can someone fill me in on this guy? I hear he’s a big-peak candidate; should I reconsider?
   66. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: April 13, 2007 at 07:14 PM (#2334223)
Yes Dr. C – I am expecting to see an all-poetry team out of you this balloting period.

Great minds think alike. So how come you didn't make them both women poets?

And also, Mike, you ruined my rotten Catch-22 metaphor by getting in ahead of me. Seriously, we need to do a better job of coordinating.... ; )
   67. Sean Gilman Posted: April 13, 2007 at 07:23 PM (#2334232)
I was looking over Sean Gilman's ballot and noticed he had 7 HoM pitchers that wouldn't make his top 15 in this election. He had NO pitchers in his top 15 and the only other pitchers mentioned in the top 25 were Bucky Walters and Dick Redding. When I have too many of one type of player on my ballot I can usually justify it because I have an equal number of players below my in-out line. In this case though it appears that Sean believes we have too many pitchers in the HoM. I'm struggling trying to figure out how Sean justifies that 27% is too much pitching and 24% is a more appropriate number when I believe 27% is much too low. I've targeted 4 pitchers for every 9 position players or 31%.

I don't know why you're talking about me in the third person, but last I checked Carl Mays and Rollie Fingers were pitchers. Mays is ON my ballot at #9 and Fingers is just off at #17. Faber, Ruffing, Lemon, Walters and Lyons will make my PHOM in the next few years. I'm perfectly comfortable with what the final distribution of hitters and pitchers will be when my PHOM is complete. I'll likely have one fewer pitcher than the actual HOM (Pierce, and the two Rubes replaced by Mays and Walters) when we catch up to the present, or shortly thereafter.

I don't have positional quotas for any individual ballot. That kind of gerrymandering seems counter to the ideals of the project to me.
   68. sunnyday2 Posted: April 13, 2007 at 07:54 PM (#2334252)
Doc, no Bus Clarkson!? That settles it!

Hungry Joe is from Catch-22? Some baby boomer I turned out to be. And Catch-22 was just mentioned yesterday by somebody reminiscing about the passing of Kurt Vonnegut, even though to the best of my knowledge Kurt Vonnegut didn't write Catch-22. Hey, I'm just reporting what I heard. Except the following is my own opinion--Slaughterhouse 5 is over-rated but Cat's Cradle and Player Piano are terrific. Never read (nor saw) Catch-22, believe it or not, but I watched a lot of MASH.

Sean, geez, I thought that was Willie Mays and I was gonna tell you we already elected him.
   69. DL from MN Posted: April 13, 2007 at 08:08 PM (#2334267)
The talking in the 3rd person was related to using a forum, not direct e-mail. I missed Carl Mays, sorry about that. One person's gerrymandering is another person's "fair to all positions". I don't have quotas either, but I do set up the process to ensure I fairly represent all positions. My target is about 4/13 pitchers and mostly equal among the position players with any bias being in favor of SS. I'm not hitting that target but I'm not far off either.
   70. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: April 13, 2007 at 08:39 PM (#2334298)
Since some people asked us to include what we consider . . . I try to look at it all. I'm a career voter mostly - not because I have any bias towards it, but just because the numbers (and every study I've ever seen) tell me that peaks are overrated and 5+5 is only about 10-15% less valuable than 10+0.

I give full war credit, and I think it's a major mistake not to when comparing players across eras. My biggest regret on this project is that we didn't require all voters to give war credit like we did with Negro League credit. I see no difference, both were a circumstance of the player's birthday that was beyond his control. I also follow similar philosophy on strikes. I think it's a cop out to say we don't know so it's a zero. If a guy was a 25 WS a year player before and after the war, a zero is a much bigger mistake than giving him three 25s. As far as injury you just credit a guy based on his playing time before and after the war. There's no reason to assume he would have been any more (or less) injury prone during those years.

I'll give minor league credit for players trapped - once they've had a 'here I am, let me play!' season.

Of late I've been much more hands on in rating the pitchers than the position players. I'm very confident in my pitcher rankings. My position player rankings I'm less confident in, but there are only so many hours in the day, and because of that you'll see more position players moving around from week to week than pitchers.

1. Dwight Evans RF (n/e) - I believe he's the best player on this ballot. GG quality defense, that is backed up by the numbers (FRAA). A 127 career OPS+ in 10500 PA. Great years in 1981, 82, 84 and 87. He's behind Clemente and Waner on the list, but not by as much as you'd think. He hit similar peaks, just not as often.

2. Rick Reuschel SP (1) - This ranking surprises me a great deal. It's one thing to 'discover' an Ezra Sutton (I mean as a group, not that I discovered him first or anything) who played 130 years ago. But Rick Reuschel was there, right before my very eyes. He pitched in the World Series for my favorite team when I was turning 9 years old. And I never had a clue he was this good.

My Pennants Added system, which account for fielding support, parks, bullpen support, etc.; shows him as the #30 pitcher eligible, right behind Dazzy Vance, Ed Walsh and Amos Rusie, and ahead of Jim Bunning, Sandy Koufax and Juan Marichal.

He isn't peakless either. His 1977 was every bit as valuable as Bunning's 1966. Bunning definitely has him beat in years 2-5, but Reuschel makes it up with more quality in the back end. I get them essentially equal, Reuschel was a little better inning for inning, Bunning had a higher peak, but in the end they even out. I have Reuschel with a 115 DRA+ over 3745 tIP, Bunning was 113 over 3739 tIP. This is where I would have ranked Bunning, who sailed into the Hall of Merit, I have no issue putting Reuschel here.

Even when I take my numbers, but filter them through a Bill James-type NHBA scoring system (that heavily focuses on peak), Reuschel still comes out as the #46 starter eligible, in a group with guys like Jim Palmer, Noodles Hahn, Eddie Rommel, Tex Hughson, Clark Griffith and Whitey Ford. Hahn, Rommel and Hughson all had very nice peaks.

Using a JAWS scoring system, he comes out as the #35 starter, in a group with Wes Ferrell, Jack Quinn, Palmer, Stan Coveleski, Red Faber and Urban Shocker.

I am saying that Reuschel was every bit as good as the Jims, Palmer and Bunning. The only difference between Palmer and Reuschel is park and defense. Reuschel's 1977 was better than any season Palmer had. Palmer, like Bunning was better than Reuschel in the 2-5 best seasons, but by less than a win a year, and over the course of their careers, Reuschel was better, 115 DRA+ to Palmer's 113 (in a similar number of innings, Palmer had 3781 tIP. He had the one great year, and was very good from 1973-81 and 1985, 1987-89. That's a record that not a lot of pitchers can match.

3. Gavy Cravath RF (2) - Either he was a freak of nature, or there's a lot missing. I vote for the latter. Check out his thread for deeper discussion of the specifics, including a great analysis from Gadfly. He's the kind of guy we were hoping to catch when we started this project.

4. Jack Quinn SP (3) - I'm giving him credit for 1916-18 where he was pitching (quite well) in the PCL after the Federal League went belly-up. He gets a big leverage bonus for his nearly 800 IP of relief work at a LI of 1.26. Without any PCL credit I still have him between Bridges and Grimes.

5. Jake Beckley 1B (4) - I still fully endorse his election. A smidge below Rafael Palmeiro, they were basically the same player, though Palmeiro was a little bit better with the stick, 1B was much tougher in Beckley's day. The average 1B had just a .531 OWP during his career, Beckley was .596, played good, though not great defense (+67 FRAA according to WARP) and played for nearly 20 years. The Ted Lyons, Red Faber or Red Ruffing of 1B. There's just so much career value here. Too much to ignore.

6. Rollie Fingers RP (5) - Very easily the number 3 reliever we've seen through 1990, behind only Wilhelm and Gossage, way ahead of Sutter. He's the best I've found at preventing inherited runners from scoring. He was as leveraged as high as just about anyone. His peak is only beaten by Gossage (and Hiller if you call 1-year a peak). ERA+ severely understates how much he prevented runs from scoring, when I adjust for everything, I get his DRA+ at 124. His career was as long as any reliever except for Wilhelm. He's a laughably easy choice IMO, unless you think we should only have 1 or 2 relievers.

7. Tommy John SP (6) - Tons of career value. I would probably be sick to my stomach if Jim Kaat (who did very well in the Veteran's Committee balloting this year) got in and John did not. On the surface (career W-L) they appear similar, but when you adjust for everything, they aren't close. I have John as similar to, but better than Burleigh Grimes - about 800 more translated IP, at a 106 rate instead of a 104 rate. That's more than enough to offset Grimes peak edge. I get John somewhere between Eppa Rixey/Red Faber and Grimes on the continuum. He's over the in/out line for me. I also give no extra credit for his poineering the surgery - someone had to be first.

8. Urban Shocker SP (7) - Vaulted in 1981, with 1918 war credit (he was having a great year), and an adjustment for the AL being much better than the NL during his time. He was a great pitcher, peak guys should really look closer at him. He'd be a no brainer without his illness, which should not impact a peak vote.

9. Tommy Bridges SP (8) - Unspectacular peak (although he would have won the 1936 AL Cy Young Award if it had been invented), but a lot of career value. War credit helps nudge him above Trout and Leonard. He could obviously still pitch when he left for the war, and was still good when he returned for a short time. I give him 2 years of credit at his 1941-43 level.

10. Graig Nettles (11) - Vacuum cleaner at 3B, one HR title, another runner-up. He was a better hitter than Brooksy, almost his equal with the glove. Almost as long of a career, and while he wasn't as good as Robinson, Brooks had plenty of room to spare. I think he's a fairly easy choice, especially considering our lack of 3B.

11. Thurman Munson C (12) - Better than I realized - just a hair behind Freehan. Better career D, better career O, but Freehan played more and had the higher peak. Very, very close.

12. Buddy Bell 3B (13) - Just a hair behind Nettles - arguably as good as fielder (though about a season less at 3B) and a hair behind as a hitter also. Who realized at the time that he was one of the best players in the game from 1980-82?

13. Dave Concepcion SS (14) - Better than I realized, and was really hurt by the 1981 strike, which occurred during his best season (and a season where the Reds had the best record in baseball, but missed the playoffs). Still no Trammell or Ozzie, but a very good player indeed. We could do worse than induct him.

14. Wally Schang C (15) - Basically the best MLB catcher between Bennett and Cochrane/Hartnett. As valuable a hitter as Campanella or Bennett. Defense was questionable.

15. Ben Taylor 1B (16) - Consider me convinced that he was really was a great hitter. I was underrating him.

Next 15:

16. Rusty Staub RF (17) - Finally pushed him higher, I like career candidates with nice peaks, and from 1967-71 Staub was one of the best players in baseball. Looking at Jose Cruz made me realize I had Staub way too low.

17. Pie Traynor 3B (18) - The more I look, the more I think we missed on this one. He gets another bump this week. I don't agree with rating Boyer above him. Traynor far outhit his 3B peers relative to Boyer and his.

18. Dave Bancroft SS (19) - Let's see. You've got a SS with a .498 OWP, during an era where the average SS has a .414 OWP. He's also one of the 15 most valuable defensive shortstops in history to this point. He had a reasonably long career as well, though his in-season durability wasn't great. Think that's a valuable player? I do.

19. Darrell Porter C (21) - A lot higher than I thought he'd be. His 1979 was an MVP caliber season - of course it came in the one year between 1977-81 that the Royals didn't make the playoffs, so he finished 9th behind guys like Mike Flanagan and Gorman Thomas. As a catcher, in 679 PA, he had as good of an offensive season as the LF/DH that won the award. I could see ranking him almost as high as Freehan. I wish I'd looked at this sooner - I'd like to see him get the close look that Ron Cey got. Porter was definitely a better player.

20. Charley Jones LF (22) - A superstar of the early NL/AA. I give full credit for his contract debacle / blacklisting, which I consider a product of his timeframe, and not something that would hinder any modern player. I have dropped him this week. I still think he was great, but I think I'd been giving him a little too much credit for his AA seasons.

21. Jim Fregosi SS (23) - I like middle infielders that can hit.

22. Don Newcombe SP (24) - Gets color-line and Korea credit. Moving up this week after a few tweaks in the system adjusting for fielding behind him.

23. Bucky Walters SP (25) - Big years, good hitter for a pitcher, career kind of short though. Basically tied with Newcombe.

24. Ken Singleton RF (26) - I've got him as very similar to Henrich. Singleton lasted longer (ever after accounting for the war), but Henrich was a much better fielder. Henrich had more power and Singleton more OBP. But when you add it all up, their overall value was quite similar.

25. Burleigh Grimes SP (27) - Faced pretty steep competition (.520 RSI), so his 256-226 RSI and 107 ERA+ understates his record somewhat. I wouldn't be against his election at this point - his hitting puts him over the top. The updated fielding adjustments in WARP drop him a little in the rankings.

26. Phil Rizzuto SS (28) - Lost 3 prime years to WWII. Great defense, and a huge year in 1950 also.

27. Norm Cash 1B (29) - Wow, history books, where have you been hiding this guy? .671 career OWP! +109 fielding runs! That puts his defense at a level with Roger Connor, George Kelly and Frank McCormick among the all-time greats. He has more FRAA than Vic Power, for example.

28. Roger Bresnahan C/OF (30) - Great hitter / catcher = tough combination to overlook.

29. Dave Parker (n/e) - I wrote a paper in college advocating him for the Hall of Fame, but now I realize that was a mistake. He just wasn't good enough when he was good to offset 1980-84.

30. Tommy Henrich RF (31) - Very underrated, gets a ton of war credit.
   71. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: April 13, 2007 at 08:40 PM (#2334299)
I can heartily recommend reading C-22, but watching it I can't.

Your're right, I didn't take the Bus. Once we finally got the puffy WS problem at least somewhat dealt with, his career returned to the long/low shape that I'm not wild about. Although I'm slotting him at 3B myself (for general comparison purposes), whether he's a SS or a 3B, he's a little off the end. In fact, he's very close to Artie Wilson as a SS or Toby Harrah as a 3B, in my rankings. Which are sometimes trustworthy.... Cross-positionally speaking, he occupies a similar area for me that Dewey does.
   72. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: April 13, 2007 at 08:41 PM (#2334301)
Mandatory responses:

33. Nellie Fox 2B (34) - Long solid career at a key position. But I can't get him above Rizzuto or Fregosi.

35. Tony Perez 1B (--) - I think I undersold him a bit. This might be too low as opposed to too high. He's definitely below Beckley in the pecking order, but closer than I realized. He's similar to, but not quite as good a hitter, and about 1 season less of career.

48. Dick Redding SP (48) - I'm just not seeing what everyone else does for some reason.

51. Edd Roush CF (51) - I can't argue with guys that vote for him. He was a very good player, I just don't see him as better than guys like Reggie Smith and Fred Lynn. He's very close, and in that group, IMO.

Pete Browning - Let's be careful here guys. He was not a good fielder, in an era where fielding was very important. He played in extremely weak leagues during the prime of his career. If he'd had a long career, I could see getting on board, but he has too many weaknesses to overcome his short career - this isn't Albert Belle or Charlie Keller - this is Hack Wilson.
   73. sunnyday2 Posted: April 13, 2007 at 09:00 PM (#2334307)
Joe, you could just do like me--vote for Roush AND Reggie.

And "let's be careful here guys" would apply to a certain newbie, too, if you ask me. As to Browning, if a guy gets MLE credit for playing in the Texas League (and I'm not saying he shouldn't), then the AA is in there somewhere.
   74. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: April 13, 2007 at 09:15 PM (#2334317)
The AA is in there somewhere. Not saying he shouldn't get credit. I just don't think he should get a lot of credit. He couldn't field in an era where fielding was more important than ever, and his career was short. And he was a good hitter, he wasn't a great one. I just don't buy what he's selling.
   75. jingoist Posted: April 13, 2007 at 09:52 PM (#2334338)
Sunnyday2; I believe what you remembered seeing was an analysis on Jim Lerher's News Hour when a fellow novelist mentioned that Joseph Heller, author of Catch 22, was a neighbor of Vonnegut's out on Long Island and that they became good friends over the years.
I believe he also mentioned that Hellar's Catch 22 was written in 1961 and Vonnegut's Slaughterhouse 5 in 1969 and that he considered those two novels "framed the 1960's."

Hellar was in the Army-Air Corps and wrote his war perspective form 15,000 ft up in the air; Vonnegut was trapped in a cellar during the famous Dresden fire-storms resulting from the allies saturation bombings at the end of WW2.
Dresden was the result of 5 years of pent up anger and was pure retaliation taken out on the German civilian population, much like Hiroshima and Nagasaki was aimed at the Japanese civilians. Not a judgement, just a statement of fact.
   76. sunnyday2 Posted: April 13, 2007 at 09:59 PM (#2334342)
Framed the '60s? I thought that was Maz' home run and the Amazin's ;-)
   77. jimd Posted: April 13, 2007 at 11:15 PM (#2334383)
Ballot for 1997

Read previous ballots if you want more depth on my reasons for all but the latest eligibles.

I am a peak/prime/career voter. Prime tends to dominate the ballot as Career has had an easier time of it in HOM elections, and short Peaks don't get too far in my system.

I am reexamining my ballot carefully as we go deep into the backlog.

1) B. WALTERS -- Best of the backlog. Prime 1939-44. Best player in 1939; candidate in 1940 by WS. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1939, 1941, 1944; WS adds 1940. Other star seasons include 1936 and 1942.

2) D. CONCEPCION -- His best 7 seasons are very close to Ozzie's best 7, though Ozzie is clearly superior in peak, shoulder seasons, and career value. Prime 1974-82. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SS) in 1974; WARP adds 1976 and 1979; WS adds 1978 and 1981. Other star seasons include 1982. HM in 1975 and 1977.

3) K. SINGLETON -- Better peak than Bonds; not quite as much prime as Wynn. Prime 1973-81. Best player candidate 1977, WS adds 1979. 1st-team MLB All-Star (RF) in 1975 and 1977. Other star seasons include 1973, 1978, 1979, 1980, 1981; also 1976 in LF.

4) J. KAAT -- Belongs. 14 HOM "bats" were born 1893-1903 (Sisler, Heilmann, Ruth, Torriente, Charleston, Terry, Goslin, Suttles, Stearnes, Averill, Simmons, Waner, Bell, Gehrig); don't tell me that 10 pitchers born 1938-48 are too many.Prime 1961-1975. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1962; WS adds 1966. Other star seasons include 1974 and 1975. HM in 1961, 1964, 1967, 1971.

5) F. JONES -- Still an all-star player when he walked away. I still think he rates ahead of Ashburn, but it's close. Prime 1900-08. 1st-team MLB All-Star (CF) in 1908; WARP adds 1902 and 1907. Other star seasons include 1900, 1901, 1903, 1904, 1905, 1906.

6) L. TIANT -- Pitching candidate very close to the in/out line. Win Shares does not like him. Tended to alternate good years (even) and off years (odd). Prime 1966-1978. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1968, 1974; WS adds 1976. Other star seasons include 1972 and 1973. Honorable Mention in 1966 and 1978.

7) F. DUNLAP -- Great two-way player; bypassed for some reason. Amibidextrous, too. Reportedly could catch and throw equally well with either hand. Useful in this era before modern fielding gloves forced a player to choose one hand for each. Prime 1880-86. Best Player candidate 1880-81 (WARP). 1st-team MLB All-Star (2B) in 1880, 1881; WARP adds 1882, 1883, and 1885. 1884 in the UA is hard to evaluate but may also be #1. Other star seasons include 1886. May be eligible for MiL credit pre-1880.

8) B. BONDS -- Very nice prime; marginal on career. Those who go to extreme either way will miss him. Prime 1969-77. Best player candidate 1970 by WS. 1st-team MLB All-Star (RF) in 1970; WARP adds 1971 and 1973. Other star seasons include 1969, 1972, 1974, 1975, 1977, 1978. HM in 1979.

9) R. CEY -- Important component of the late 70's Dodgers. Prime 1973-1981. 1st-team MLB All-Star (3B) in 1978 by WARP. Other star seasons include 1974, 1975, 1976, 1979, 1980, and 1981. HM in 1973 and 1977.

10) D. DEAN -- High peak candidate. Prime 1932-36. Candidate for best player in MLB baseball, 1934. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) 1934, 1935, 1936; WARP adds 1932. Other star seasons include 1933.

11) D. BANCROFT -- Boost due to DanR's replacement level work. Prime 1916-22. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SS) 1920 and 1921; WS adds 1922. Other star seasons include 1916, 1917, 1918, 1925, 1926.

12) B. MAZEROSKI -- Prime 1957-66. 1st-team MLB All-Star (2B) 1960 and 1964; WARP adds 1958. Other star seasons include 1962, 1963, 1966. HM in 1957, 1961, 1965.

13) D. EVANS -- Marginal OF'er with a long career, a late prime beginning at age 29. The beaning in 1977 appears to have hurt his development. Prime 81-89. 1st-team MLB All-Star (RF) in 1981; WS adds 1982. Other star seasons include 1984, 1985, 1986, 1987, 1988, 1989.

14) R. MARANVILLE -- Better WARP career than Beckley. Where's the luv from the career voters? Prime 1913-22. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SS) in 1914 and 1916 by WS. Other star seasons include 1913, 1915, 1917, 1919, 1921, 1922, and 1929. WWI service in 1918.

15) P. TRAYNOR -- I see the HOM as being somewhat heavy on "bats" (OF/1B) and went to a system organized around position groups (arms/bats/gloves). Traynor was the major beneficiary of the reorg. Prime 1923-33. 1st-team MLB All-Star (3B) in 1923, 1925, 1927, 1931; WS adds 1929, 1932, 1933. Other star seasons include 1926. HM in 1928 and 1930.

16) E. HOWARD -- It's close, but I have him ahead of Freehan. Prime 19??-64. 1st-team MLB All-Star (Ca) in 1961, 1963, 1964. Other star seasons include 1962. HM in 1958.

17) T. MUNSON -- Close to Howard and Freehan. Don't understand the lack of support. Prime 1970-78. 1st-team MLB All-Star (Ca) 1976; WARP adds 1973. Other star seasons include 1970, 1975, 1977. HM in 1971, 1972, 1978.

18) N. FOX -- Prime 1951-60. 1st-team MLB All-Star (2B) in 1957 and 1958; WS adds 1955 and 1960. Other star seasons include 1951, 1952, 1954, 1958. HM in 1953.

19) T. PEREZ -- Better 3B than expected. Important component of the Reds prior to the arrival of Joe Morgan. Prime 1967-1975. Best player candidate 1970 by Win Shares. 1st-team MLB All-Star (3B) in 1970; WS adds 1973 at 1B. Other star seasons include 1967, 1968, 1969, 1971 (3B), and 1972 at 1B. HM in 1974, 1975, 1977 (1B).

20) R. FINGERS -- Doesn't score well in my system, not sure if we need another reliever.

Just missing the cut are:
21-23) Dizzy Trout, Bobby Veach, Dick Redding,
24-26) Jim McCormick, Norm Cash, Jim Whitney,
27-30) Ron Guidry, Vida Blue, Nellie Fox, Edd Roush,
31-33) Graig Nettles, Jake Beckley, Roger Bresnahan,
34-36) George Foster, Charley Jones, Bob Johnson,

I trust that those who say, in their defense of Pete Browning, that there is a point of diminishing returns when it comes to discounting players in weak leagues, are giving Fred Dunlap the benefit of the same doubt when it comes to 1884.

Duffy's better than Parker and Hugh's not that near my ballot.
I'll wait for the Clarkson numbers to settle.

System ate my ballot the first time and I don't see it here.
Let's try submitting it again.
   78. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: April 14, 2007 at 02:02 AM (#2334539)
1996 ballot

Alejandro Oms, Willard Brown, and Billy Pierce make my PHOM, Hernandez, Willis, and Bresnahan are on deck.

1. Dick Redding (3, PHOM) – 2nd best NeL pitcher of the dead ball era after Smokey Joe Williams and that ain’t bad. I like his peak as much as Mendez’ and he had more career. Seems to be our best backlog pitcher.

2. Hugh Duffy (2, PHOM) – Best of the 1890’s CF trio based on his superior peak. I agree with WS that Duffy deserves some credit for his team over performing not only their pythag but also their RS and RA projections. That said, I still think WS overrates Duffy’s peak for other reasons.

3. Bucky Walters (4, PHOM) – Very good pitcher with a nice peak. He was baseball’s best pitcher in 1939 and 1940, could hit a little too. I am looking over how his defense may have artificially raised his IP numbers, but I am still pretty sure that I like him more than my next few pitchers.

4. Elston Howard (6, PHOM) – The more I look at him the more he looks like Quincey Trouppe. Both were good hitting catchers with nice peaks who played decent portions of their careers at other positions. However, I prefer Quincey’s time at 3B to Elston’s time in the OF and Quincey played more baseball while Elston sat behind Yogi Berra.

5. Pete Browning (7, PHOM) – Quite possibly the best hitter on the board right now. However, concerns about the quality of the 1880’s AA keep him below Keller and Kiner for me. Our recent discussion on Charley Jones has made me realize that Browning has many of the same problems Jones does and so he falls a few spots.

6. Gavvy Cravath (8, PHOM) – Finally coming around on him. Great peak in the Majors and he definitely deserves MiL credit.

7. Dizzy Dean (9, PHOM) – High peak pitcher who I view as Koufax Lite. His peak wasn’t quite as good, he had a little less career, and he wasn’t even has bad of a hitter. Still ballot worthy, however.

8. Rollie Fingers (10, PHOM) – Not 100% sure what to do with him. Out of the relievers we have seen thus far I would have to agree that he is second to Wilhelm. Out of the relievers that we can look at I only prefer Wilhelm and Gossage. If he isn’t elected this year, I could seem him moving wildly as we look at more relievers. Leaps over Oms this week.

9. Alejandro Oms (11, PHOM) – I see him as similar to, but slightly better than, George Van Haltren. I also prefere Oms to HOMer Willard Brown. He had a low peak but it was a long one that accrued value in the Billy Williams/Al Kaline mold.

10. Vic Willis (13) – First time on my ballot. He made a jump into my top 25 about 30 or 40 years ago and now I have finally decided to vote for him. He has a great DERA and he was a horse for some very good pitching staff

11. Roger Bresnahan (14) – Just like Peaches and Herb, Roger and my ballot are “Re-United and it feels So GOOD!” Best MLB catcher between 1900 and 1920. Very nice peak, even after I adjust for his time in CF.

12. Larry Doyle (15) – First vote for him ever! Doyle started in my 20, fell down into the 30’s, and now has climbed back up. He and Fox have suffered opposite fates recently as I have decided that I would rather have the bopper over the fielder in this case. However, there are concerns with both his defense and the status of turn of the century 2B.

13. George van Haltren - Back on my ballot again after a long break. Good long career with a decent prime.

14. Urban Shocker - First time voting for Urban, though he has been in my top 30 for some 'years'. Nice DERA scores have always left me fond of him.

15. John McGraw - has jumped up five spots just because guys in front of him keep getting elected. He would be #1 if he had better in season durability.


16-20 Roush, Rosen, Leach, C. Jones, Newcombe
21-25 Singleton, Berger, Elliot, Rizzuto, F. Howard
26-30 Fox, Tiant, Burns, Cepeda, Reuschel
31-35 Lundy, Evans, Chance, Munson, Parker
36-40 Bancroft, Cey, Thomas, Concepcion, Quisenberry
41-45 Kaat, Perez, Monroe, Ryan, Stephens
46-50 H.Wilson, Johnson, Cicotte, Traynor, Easter
51-55 Bonds, Bando, Cash, Schang, Taylor
56-60 Wills, F. Jones, Klein, Mays, Grimes

Required Disclosures:

Fox – I haven’t voted for him yet and he has taken a recent ‘dive’ in my rankings. I guess my biggest concern is his lack of a bat and that I am not sure I want to give credit for being the best of a bad lot..

Beckley – Not in my top 60 (I stop ranking players at that point) and most likely not in my top 75. I think that HOMers should have spent at least some of their career as one of the best in baseball and Beckley is not even in the top 10 in any season. His best years came not in the 10 team NL but before and after and a team with him as their best player is highly unlikely to win a pennant. Need I continue?

Roush – Good player, but I think not playing full seasons for whatever reason (injury, holdout) really hurts his peak. Has moved up a little in my re-eval. Better than Carey, Bell, and Minoso and currently on the edge of my ballot

C. Jones – I do not give Jones full credit for his missing years as I believe that he was not some innocent that was done in by the big, bad man. There is a chance that he acted the way he did in order to sever ties with Boston, in which case the league had some reason for acting the way that it did. However, I do give him one full season of credit (which in my system is better than two half seasons)because he wasn’t the only guilty party. Even with credit there are many other questions like league strength, deviations from the mean, and extrapolating 60-80 game seasons into 162 game seasons. All of these cause some downward pressure on Jones best seasons (as well as some upward pressure on some of his worst) and pull him down a bit. I have to say that I can see no way in which he is better than Charlie Keller, Jimmy Wynn, or even Gavvy Cravath. Not the worst choice we will have made, but I think he gets a boost because he was hard done by and that really isn’t fair to other players.

Newbies:

Dwight Evans – Despite the 11 slots, the difference between he and Singleton is pretty slight, though I do prefer the Yankee color man. I think we as a group are overrating him and I would like to see him last a few more years

Dave Parker – Slightly better peak than Evans, but nothing else. They are close, though I like Evans less and Parker more than most of the electorate.
   79. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: April 14, 2007 at 03:36 AM (#2334593)
jimd--nice ballot! Feeling the love for Concepción, Bancroft, and Cey. One question: Since you (properly, in my mind) do consider position in your rankings, where do you have Rizzuto?

And a comment: don't Browning's 1882 and Dunlap's 1884 show that great players most certainly can and do take advantage of weaker competition? They absolutely obliterated those leagues, putting up above-.400 EqA's at second base...even if you discount those seasons by half due to league strength, they're *still* excellent peak seasons for any HoM'er.
   80. Brent Posted: April 14, 2007 at 03:51 AM (#2334599)
According to the translations I calculated and presented on the Estimating league quality thread, Browning's 1882 season was equivalent to an OPS+ of 158 in the National League. He missed 14% of his team's games. It was a very good season, but not exceptional by HoM standards. I haven't done a translation for the UA.
   81. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: April 14, 2007 at 06:15 AM (#2334699)
A 158 OPS+ from a second baseman is extraordinary. That's peak Joe Morgan and Eddie Collins, and better than anything Jackie Robinson did. I would definitely call a 158 OPS+ from a 2B exceptional by HoM standards.
   82. rawagman Posted: April 14, 2007 at 06:46 AM (#2334706)
jimd - FYI - you have Nellie Fox in 18th and in 29th.
   83. Brent Posted: April 14, 2007 at 01:11 PM (#2334745)
I would definitely call a 158 OPS+ from a 2B exceptional by HoM standards.

If I believed that his fielding skills at 2B were outstanding, which is how BP evaluates them, then I'd agree with you. The fact that he was only asked to play 7 games at 2B in the rest of his career, however, suggests to me that the fielding statistics aren't telling the real story.
   84. Howie Menckel Posted: April 14, 2007 at 02:10 PM (#2334763)
1997 ballot - our (and my) 100th!!!

A bit of a shakeup in many ways, which seems appropriate for such an august occasion. Lots of other people's 'teddy bears' either are big winners or losers as a result. Read on!

The annual fine print: Overall, I think there is too much emphasis on WARP3 and WS, which are intriguing tools but which are not yet sufficiently mature.
So my preference for ERA+ and OPS+ helps, I think, as a reality check. Increasingly, I've had to adjust for PAs per season, not really an issue in earlier years when nearly all star players played almost every day.
I tend to be mostly prime-oriented with hitters, prime and career with pitchers. But a huge peak sometimes catches my eye, and a remarkably long hitting career also works for me.

I had last year's electees Hernandez-Keller-Wynn at 5-10-15 on my ballot. An unusually high number of my old-time favorites have been elected, so modern candidates will do fairly well on my ballot in some years.
I agree with almost all of the brickbats being thrown at all of these very marginal HOM candidates. They look like the HOVG All-Star team.

1. ROLLIE FINGERS - Climbs one more spot to the top of the hill this year. Yes, a devilish career to evaluate. So how does he wind up nearly atop my backlog again this year? He has many pluses: nine seasons with 100 relief IP (Rivera has one, when he was a setup man). He won about 100 games in relief not as a vulture, but as a guy pitching when it mattered most. For those dazzled by modern save totals, realize that Fingers was in the top 4 in his league in SVs 11 times (to 8 for Sutter and 7 for Rivera). Sutter pitched more than 107 IP once - Fingers did that 10 consecutive years. Sutter's peak is higher, for sure. But Fingers had a couple of other-worldly years, too. But most of all, what wins Fingers this slot is his inherited-runner numbers (and bonus World Series heroics). Fingers' teams just kept winning games he pitched for them - often he'd win himself, and often he'd save the day with runners on. In some way, I think Fingers was SO good in the 'clutch' for so long that it seems like he was not just getting lucky over and over again. Either way, the results were of immense value.
2. PETE BROWNING - Slips one spot. I recently looked again at the 1890 PL season. Browning, at age 29, leads the league in adj OPS+ by 13 pts over 32-yr-old HOMer Connor, followed by a 22-yr-old Beckley and HOMers Ewing, Brouthers, Gore, O'Rourke at 6-7-8-9. Ewing is 30, Brouthers is 32, Gore is 33, O'Rourke is 39. Browning by all accounts is 'an old 29' due to his health and alcohol problems. Yet in his chance to play in a HOMer-laden league, he dominates. Yet I am supposed to assume that as a younger player he wouldn't have been able to post big numbers in the NL rather than the AA? Seven OPS+s above 163. 10 seasons as a regular, a good number for the era. This lousy fielder played some 16 pct of his career in the infield. Given the era, how much did he really hurt his team in the field? Not as much as some think; it was a different game then.
3. BOB JOHNSON - First time in an elect-me slot, I think. I really like this sort of consistency over an endless span. Sort of the Joe Gordon of OFs in career shape, or a slightly longer and flatter version of Kiner. I am concerned by 1944 being his highest OPS+; seems like he took advantage of the weak competition, so I discount that a bit. But has more than a decade's worth of excellent hitting, for a prime that I like better than Van Haltren's or almost any other holdover's.

4. DWIGHT EVANS - Almost identical to Johnson for best 10 years; Evans has the lead with some D thrown in. But Johnson has that very useful 11-13 seasons (127-25-25 OPS+) while Evans finally starts petering out. Splitting hairs there.
5. CANNONBALL DICK REDDING - Moves up a bit this year, as I reevaluate the entire ballot. A longtime favorite who has climbed his way back onto my ballot in recent years. I liked him as an all-around candidate, but the HOF research suggests he's more of a peak guy. Those types don't always fare well with me, but with the weakening ballot, to be fair I think he belongs here.
6. JAKE BECKLEY - Ah, the great polarizer. His fielding had more value than I think some voters realize (though not as much as I used to think), he played every day, he hit well - there's nothing remotely like this career among the unelected hitters from 1875-1935. 13 OPS+s of 120 or better (even Kaline had 'only' 12, while Banks only had 7). Rivals came and went; it's only Beckley who lasted. Suffers from those looking at his career through a modern prism, especially with newer voters. The biggest issue for him may be the 8 seasons in the 120s - I find that quite valuable, given era and position; others do not.
7. BOB ELLIOTT - Bob helps me from being TOO far ahead of the consensus pack, lol. If you haven't examined him in a while - or ever - get to it!! Six seasons of at least 134 OPS+, ALL of them as a 3B. Wish he'd played all 3B and not much OF, but c'est le vie - Sewell seemed to get treated as a full SS by some. Beats out HOMer Boyer (see Boyer thread for details) and compares remarkably well with HOMer Santo as a hitter (see Santo thread for more details). Better than HOMer Hack as well, and better than HOMer DaEvans (see DaEvans thread).
8. ROGER BRESNAHAN - Back on the ballot after a long drought, and jumps right to the middle. Was discarded long ago when I liked many careers better; a fresh look against this pack is enlightening. C and CF combo is fascinating; seems like he was an outstanding all-around player. Just wish he had one more big year, but I can say that about most of the ballot.
9. DAVE BANCROFT - Not sure if I ever voted for him before. But look at the prime: fantastic fielder at SS, with OPS+s of 120-19-19-09-09-09-04. Won a fresh 3-way evaluation vs Fox and Concepcion.
10. VIC WILLIS - Wow. Won the SP bakeoff with Grimes and Walters, with slightly more career than Walters and better peak than Grimes. But boy it's close!
11. FRANK HOWARD - 4th straight guy I didn't know I was going to vote for this year. I had forgotten how spectacular his peak was, and his career tally - 142 OPS+ in nearly 8000 PA. Yes, he suffers due to defense - he could make a case for ranking No. 1 if he could field! Best-3 seasons - 177-70-70 in 1968-70, with almost 2100 PA total - make these other guys look like banjo hitters.
12. EDD ROUSH - Has anyone read the new book on him by his granddaughter called "Red Legs and Black Sox?" The missing ABs per year really bother me about him, and yes I am adjusting re WW I. Reggie Smith is an interesting comp. Lucky to be in the Hall of Fame, but too good for too long to avoid a place on the middle of my ballot.
13. NELLIE FOX - The best of an era at his position, but recent discussion caused a reevaluation that cost him 6-8 slots here. This the Sewell argument all over again - one that I found went against Sewell. Ultimately I like Fox better, and Sewell already is a HOMer. That core of 1951-60 as a league-average or better hitter while playing a great defensive 2B and being so durable is quite valuable, I think. A lot more seasons than Sewell at middle infield, that helps, too.
14. ORLANDO CEPEDA - Yet another guy back from the dead who suddenly pops up on my ballot with the reeval. Had been losing out to Perez with positional consideration, but closer look shows a sterling top-4 and top-10 offensive line. DH opportunity adds nothing to his case.
15. BUCKY WALTERS - Back on the ballot. Got the runnerup slot in the SP bakeoff - for a year, anyway. Two best seasons were not war-related, so that helps me buy into the idea that he'd have had two more really good ones regardless. Really about a 130-140 ERA+ season or two short of my usual standard, but the pool is getting pretty thin. Seems to be grabbing away the "last pitcher" slot from Welch on occasion. No full penalty for the great defense, but it's an issue

AMONG THE TOP 10 RETURNEES, BUT I'M NOT VOTING FOR THEM
CHARLEY JONES - Some sympathy for the contract issues, but it's just not the same as going to war or being the 'wrong' skin color. Therefore, I see his career as too short.
TONY PEREZ - Bounced off the ballot after one year on it. Better peak than DaEvans in terms of rate, and very similar long careers otherwise. But extra time and better play at 3B made the difference for Evans. May never make it back for me.

NEWBIE
DAVE PARKER - Has a top-6-season resume to compete, but falls off the table too quickly and doesn't quite keep up to a useful level thereafter. Coulda been a HOMer if he'd wanted it badly enough, it seems.

JUST MISSED
BURLEIGH GRIMES - Falls off the ballot for the first time in a while. Compare to Ruffing, Rixey, Wynn and other such HOM pitchers - ok, Sutton, too. I dismissed him as short of Rixey and Ruffing, and he was. But he's just one 130 ERA+ year short of climbing a little higher on this ballot. Better peak than Tommy John, and a lot more durable relative to his era.
DAVE CONCEPCION - Peak is as good or better than Fox's; not quite as consistent, but a slick fielder and a very useful offensive weapon many times. Not fully buying the "other teams were stupid enough to play ciphers at the position" argument; that helped the Reds win pennants, but Concepcion can't get full credit for that stupidity. Similar case to Bancroft, whose prime I preferred this year to Concepcion's length.
BRUCE SUTTER - Falls off the ballot for now; he's starting to look less unique. Sutter did throw 100 IP a year, not 75 like today's closers - and that really adds value. Was only a monster K guy for half his career, made a nice adjustment thereafter to still be effective.
GAVY CRAVATH - Hurt by reconsideration of Baker Bowl - sure he smartly took advantage, but others didn't have that opportunity. He has some Rice in him. But I disagree with the conclusion of some that MLB teams didn't consider him good enough - much less that they'd have been right. The key for me is the half-season opportunity in 1908; even then he clearly was a quality major league hitter, so there's little reason not to significantly credit either 1907 or 1909-11. His work in his 30s is just outstanding, up there with some of the best ever. Comparison to Kiner is fascinating. Will return to my ballot.
LUIS TIANT - Looks like he has the peak at first glance, but notice that the IP just aren't quite there. Plenty good when he did pitch, but with that lack of innings you have to be even more dominant. Maybe he winds up as the era's last P electee, but probably not.
RON CEY - I have him over Nettles and Bell and nearly on the ballot, but that's because I may like his fielding better than most. Closest of the trio to Bando in hitting. Talk me into voting for him.
GRAIG NETTLES - Very good fielder with nine seasons of 100 to 115 OPS+ as a regular, and outstanding from 1976-78.
   85. Mike Webber Posted: April 14, 2007 at 03:02 PM (#2334788)
12. EDD ROUSH - Has anyone read the new book on him by his granddaughter called "Red Legs and Black Sox?" The missing ABs per year really bother me about him, and yes I am adjusting re WW I. Reggie Smith is an interesting comp. Lucky to be in the Hall of Fame, but too good for too long to avoid a place on the middle of my ballot.


I have read it, and it both good and disapointing. It starts out as a traditional bio, following his life from small town, through the minors to the Federal League and finally Cincinnati. Then it hits the 1919 World Series, and spends 150 pages on it, and then rounds out the rest of the book with less than 50 pages of Roush's life after the World Series. Roush lived to be 90 years old.
I spoke with the author briefly at the SABR Convention in Seattle, and basically she did what she had to get the book published, so I'm not casting any stones. While there are parts of the 1919 World Series from the Roush point of view (family lore I guess) that are very interesting, it just seems a shame that so much of what is really intriguing isn't in there. How did he feel about going back to the Giants at the end of his career, there is a tiny bit about the holdouts, but not much.
   86. Brent Posted: April 14, 2007 at 03:23 PM (#2334796)
Yet in his chance to play in a HOMer-laden league, he dominates. Yet I am supposed to assume that as a younger player he wouldn't have been able to post big numbers in the NL rather than the AA? Seven OPS+s above 163.

According to my AA/NL translations, Browning would have posted some big numbers in the NL--169 in 1887, 159 in 1885, 158 in 1882, 149 in 1883, and 148 in 1886. But the "seven OPS+s above 163" is an illusion cast by a weak league. And other hitters in the backlog put up similar peak numbers in longer careers (e.g., Cravath, Frank Howard).
   87. Paul Wendt Posted: April 14, 2007 at 05:27 PM (#2334868)
Fred Dunlap from the Transactions database via bb-ref
August 6, 1886: Purchased by the Detroit Wolverines from the St. Louis Maroons for $4,700.

November 5, 1887: Purchased by the Pittsburg Alleghenys from the Detroit Wolverines for $4000 or $5000. (Date given is approximate. Exact date is uncertain.)


That isn't Mike Kelly John Clarkson money but it adds to the picture of one baseball's Golden Ages.


11. FRANK HOWARD - 4th straight guy I didn't know I was going to vote for this year. I had forgotten how spectacular his peak was, and his career tally - 142 OPS+ in nearly 8000 PA. Yes, he suffers due to defense - he could make a case for ranking No. 1 if he could field! Best-3 seasons - 177-70-70 in 1968-70, with almost 2100 PA total - make these other guys look like banjo hitters.

As valuable as any batter during my elementary school days. Matched by Mike Epstein from the left side, in some imaginations. (Oddly, baseball-reference doesn't know Epstein's height, where retrosheet reports double precision 6-3.5.)


12. EDD ROUSH - Has anyone read the new book on him by his granddaughter called "Red Legs and Black Sox?" The missing ABs per year really bother me about him, and yes I am adjusting re WW I. Reggie Smith is an interesting comp. Lucky to be in the Hall of Fame, but too good for too long to avoid a place on the middle of my ballot.

lucky to be in the Hall of Fame?
Doesn't lucky to be in the Hall of Fame imply unworthy of the Hall of Merit, at least for a long career major league player like Roush?

Any SABR member can join 'deadball' at yahoogroups.com and read in its archive the last winter discussion of Red Legs and Black Sox. Several issues loom large here that recur for biography and memoir as history, and some that recur throughout the book business.
   88. Paul Wendt Posted: April 14, 2007 at 05:32 PM (#2334878)
19) T. PEREZ -- Better 3B than expected. Important component of the Reds prior to the arrival of Joe Morgan.

:-)
en garde, Joe
   89. Thane of Bagarth Posted: April 14, 2007 at 07:04 PM (#2334953)
1997 Ballot
My ranking system heavily weights 5 year peaks, but additional career value can add up, too. I rely primarily on the uberstats, with about a 60/40 split between WARP and WS. I’m rather liberal with war and minor league credit. I use a catcher bonus of up to 10% based on the proportion of a player’s career spent behind the plate.

I think all of the WARP #s I’m using were up to date as of the beginning of December. I have already run the numbers for all “serious” eligibles (i.e. >200 career Win Shares) through the 2006 election. Unless I get an unforeseen wealth of free time to update my spreadsheet, I am going to continue to vote based on the data I have currently collected.

1) Dwight Evans
Like Hernandez, I know he’s not the super-star no-brainer that we’d all like to see placed at the top of our ballots. But, he was a Gold Glove RF with excellent OBP and solid power that stayed consistent for almost 20 seasons and is an easy pick for number one—for me, at least.

2) Tony Perez
Perez is not terribly dissimilar from Staub—they’re almost identical by Win Shares. His peak according to WARP is substantially better than Staub’s (46.6 to 40.5) and he’s got more career value to boot (109.5 to 102.7), so Tony gets the edge.

3) Rusty Staub
By Win Shares he looks like a solid HoMer: 358 career, 145 top-5 consecutive. By WARP he’s a bit more marginal: 40.5 top 5 WARP3 isn’t super (albeit better than Beckley), but 102.7 career is respectable.

4) Bucky Walters
A very good pitcher…I’m not convinced that he needs to be docked for the superb Reds defense more than the DTs already do.

5) Ben Taylor
The lack of data from his prime years makes all of this highly speculative, but I’m ranking him as if he was Keith Hernandez with a little less peak and more career (career totals of around 105 WARP3 and 320 Win Shares; with top 5s of 46 and 135, respectively).

6) Bob Johnson
100 WARP3, 287 WS for career plus Minor League credit makes him a legit HoM candidate.

7) Dick Redding
2nd best NeL pitcher of the deaball era, I’m hoping we’ll give him his due eventually.

8) Bobby Bonds
Similar in career value to Indian Bob (93 WARP3, 302 WS). 149 WS in top five consecutive seasons is impressive, though not unprecedented.

9) Graig Nettles
Although his peak numbers a little lower than Bonds & Singleton, career totals are a little better…Nettles ends up somewhere in the middle.

10) George Van Haltren
GVH seems to be an obvious HoMer if you just look at Win Shares (344 career, 133 top 5 consecutive—before season length adjustments); however, WARP (especially WARP3) is not nearly as favorable: 86.5 career, 36.4 top 5.

11) Ken Singleton
Funny how a guy who conjures up such a divergent image of a “type” of player when compared to Bobby Bonds can put up such similar overall career and peak value—both have 302 WS, just over 90 WARP3; top 5s of about 150 WS, 46(BB)/48(KS) WARP3.

12) Luis Tiant
By WARP alone (98.2 career, 45.3 top 5 WARP3), I’d have him higher than Walters, but Win Shares is not as generous (256 career, 108 top 5 consec.).

13) Bill Monroe
Probably in the Doerr-Gordon 2B range…cautiously ranked a little lower.

14) Jimmy Ryan
As I am sure has been hashed and re-hashed dozens of times previously in the history of the Hall of Merit, Ryan appears to be GVH part II (or part I).

15) Gavy Cravath
A heavy dose of MiL credit gives him the career bulk, which, when added to his peak, makes him a ballot contender.

The Rest of the Top 50
16) Dizzy Trout
17) Tommy John
18) Buddy Bell
19) Charley Jones—Always close to the ballot, if not on it. I give him credit for 2 blackball/blacklist/whatever years.
20) Sam Rice
21) Nellie Fox—I don’t see a huge difference between Fox and Bill Monroe. He could easily make my ballot in future elections if the backlog ever clears out before he gets elected.
22) Jake Beckley—Close to the ballot due to career value, but his lowish peak holds him back.
23) Tommy Leach
24) Rabbit Maranville
25) Norm Cash
26) Jim Kaat
27) Dave Parker—Welcome to the HoVG, Dave.
28) Reggie Smith
29) Buzz Arlett
30) Burleigh Grimes
31) Jack Quinn
32) Edd Roush—Bonus hold-out credit moves him up a bit, but not all that close to the ballot.
33) Bob Elliot
34) Jose Cruz
35) Harry Hooper
36) Dave Concepcion
37) Ron Cey
38) Vada Pinson
39) Phil Rizzuto
40) Alejandro Oms
41) Hugh Duffy
42) Rick Reuschel
43) Orlando Cepeda
44) Cesar Cedeno
45) Jim Rice
46) Bus Clarkson
47) Lou Brock
48) Vern Stephens
49) George Foster
50) Dom DiMaggio

Returning Consensus Top 10 Not in My Top 100:
Rollie Fingers—Out of my top 100. I may be underrating relievers as a whole, but I modified my rankings to help closers/firemen when I originally had Wilhelm well below most other voters. Those adjustments help Rollie, but currently I can’t see adjusting them more to bring him closer to my ballot. I like Goose Gossage a lot more.
Pete Browning— He takes a real beating in the WARP1-3 conversions. I have voted for him in the past, but right now I’ve got him falling farther and farther behind the real ballot contenders.
   90. Brent Posted: April 14, 2007 at 07:23 PM (#2334971)
1997 Ballot:

I dislike these backlog elections – it wouldn't bother me if no one were elected this year.

I've done a little tweaking to my system, which led to some small movements on my ballot. The numbers shown below in my comments are not intended to describe my rating system (didn't want to get into a discussion of arctangents and geometric means), but simply as indicative of the types of characteristics that result in players doing well in my system. I tend to prefer players with long primes (7 to 10 years) at the all-star level ahead of short peaks or long, peak-less careers. In-season durability also matters quite a bit in my system.

1. Ken Singleton – 8 seasons with OPS+>130 and PA>600 (adjusting to 162 game schedule). (PHoM 1991)

2. Phil Rizzuto – Excellent defense; above average hitter at his position; key contributor to many pennants. I believe that calculation of his war credit shouldn't give too much weight to his injury-plagued 1946 season and should allow for the possibility of at least one peakish season sometime during ages 25 to 27. (PHoM 1967)

3. Hugh Duffy – 7 seasons with OPS+>120 while playing 97% of his team’s games, contributing to five pennants, and ranking as one of the top defensive outfielders in baseball. (PHoM 1931)

4. Alejandro Oms – Great Cuban hitter of the 1920s. (PHoM 1967)

5. Bobby Bonds – 10 seasons with OPS+>115, PA>600, SB>25, and R>90. (PHoM 1987)

6. Bucky Walters – Over 7 seasons (1936, 39-42, 44-45) he averaged 18-13, 2.0 wins above team, 270 IP, 123 DERA+, 72 OPS+. MVP for 1939. (PHoM 1958)

7. Gavy Cravath – Among the pure hitters, he has the strongest credentials. Six MLB or MLE seasons with OPS+ >= 150 and PA>550. In his prime, he was a better hitter than Browning and—with appropriate credit for his performance in Los Angeles and Minneapolis—had significantly more career value. (PHoM 1976)

8. Dizzy Dean – Over 6 seasons (1932-37) he averaged 22-13, 3.6 wins above team, 288 IP, 129 DERA+, 182 SO, 67 BB. (PHoM 1958)

9. Mickey Welch – Over 7 seasons (1880, 84-85, 87-90) he averaged 30-17, 4.3 wins above team, 437 IP, 117 DERA+, 74 OPS+. (PHoM 1966)

10. Dick Redding – Because his peak came before the organization of formal Negro leagues in the 1920s, there is some uncertainty about his credentials. Nevertheless, the evidence suggests a pitcher with a long career and several seasons of dominance. (PHoM 1976)

11. Sal Bando – Eight seasons with OPS+>115 and PA>600. (PHoM 1987)

12. Burleigh Grimes – Over 9 seasons (1918, 20-21, 23-24, 26-29) he averaged 20-12, 3.6 wins above team, 285 IP, 115 DERA+, 65 OPS+. (PHoM 1940)

13. Tony Pérez – 12 seasons with OPS+>115 and PA>550, and for five of those seasons he was playing 3B. (PHoM 1994)

14. Dwight Evans – Eight seasons with OPS+>120 and PA>600 (adjusting to 162 game schedule). (PHoM 1997)

15. Roger Bresnahan – Back on my ballot after a long time off; he finally makes it into my personal hall. (PHoM 1997)

Near misses:

16–20. E Howard (PHoM 1977), Fox (PHoM 1979), Leach (PHoM 1932), Van Haltren (PHoM 1997), Dave Parker
21–25. Newcombe, F Howard, Nettles, R Smith, Arlett
26–30. Quisenberry, Cepeda, Brock, Easter, Pesky

Other consensus top 10:

Edd Roush – He had only 5 seasons in which he played 90 percent of his team’s games. In a field this tight, that's enough to knock him out of the running.

Nellie Fox – # 17.

Jake Beckley – Has never been close to my ballot. But I hope he gets elected this time so I won’t have to think about him again.

Pete Browning – His election will be a mistake. Similar in his prime to Gavy Cravath, Frank Howard, and Buzz Arlett, except that they all had considerably longer careers and better in-season durability. Hack Wilson is a more appropriate comp.

Rollie Fingers – I see him as part of a cluster of fine relievers who don’t quite rise to my ballot cutoff.

Other new arrivals:

Dave Parker (# 20) essentially takes Charlie Keller’s place in my backlog. Both players had five peak seasons with OPS+ between 140 and 170 and PA>600. Keller’s five seasons look a little better than Parker’s, but that was partly due to the weaker league context in 1942-43. Keller fills in his resume with three peakish partial seasons and 1? seasons of war credit. Parker fills in his with one season at 132 and about seven between 100 and 120 (that is, as an average player). It’s interesting that with such huge differences in the rest of their careers, the two players come out ranking about the same in my system.
   91. Paul Wendt Posted: April 14, 2007 at 08:18 PM (#2335018)
DanR
jimd--nice ballot! Feeling the love for Concepción, Bancroft, and Cey. One question: Since you (properly, in my mind) do consider position in your rankings, where do you have Rizzuto?

beside consideration for fielding position, the same question may be asked of jimd as the best friend of fielding genius: Fielder Jones, Fred Dunlap, Bill Mazeroski, and Rabbit Maranville on his ballot as well as Concepcion and Bancroft


quoting myself
How many were on the 250-home run list when Cy Williams retired? Was he third all-time in the major leagues, now third all-time in the Williams family?

Cy Williams - There is a late bloomer.
The SABR Collegiate Cmte, reported at baseball-reference, has him at Notre Dame 1910-1912, thru age 24.5


Er, no, Cy is no longer third in the Williams family, nor do they need him in center field (Ted, Billy, Bernie).
   92. SWW Posted: April 14, 2007 at 11:10 PM (#2335127)
Another backlog year. Lots of outfielders back there.

<u>1997 Ballot</u>
1) Jacob Nelson Fox – “Nellie”
This was not the top spot I was expecting. But comparing Fox and Grimes’ career numbers, I couldn’t in good conscience say that Grimes had the stronger case. A uniquely successful second baseman for his era, with our without a chunk of tobacco in his cheek. Six Top 10 WS appearances and very good Standards and Monitor scores.
2) Burleigh Arland Grimes – “Ol’ Stubblebeard”
My white whale. A successful pitcher with both a dead ball and a live one. Frequently one of the best pitchers in the league, and often the best pitcher on his team. Many comparisons to Early Wynn, whom we did elect, and most similar to Red Faber, whom we also elected. I heartily encourage people to review his case. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
3) Roland Glen Fingers – “Rollie”
Interestingly, watching Rich Gossage’s unnecessarily-long march to Cooperstown has helped me assess my placement of relief pitchers. I think the weirdness of the position has led this electorate to underrate him, and not entirely unfairly. But Fingers is one of the best at his position, outdistances guys like Sutter, Lyle, and McGraw. Also, DanG calls him “the Grimes of RP’s”, which seems almost calculated to get my attention. 76th on SABR Top 100. 82nd on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 97th on Sporting News Top 100. New York Times Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
4) Atanasio Perez Rigal – “Tony”
5) Orlando Manuel Cepeda Pennes – “Baby Bull”
A similar pair. Tony has the edge in Win Shares. Cha Cha shows a greater impact compared to his team and his league. Tony has higher career and higher prime numbers, so right now he gets the advantage. Perez is 74th on Ken Shouler Top 100.
6) Carl William Mays
I have long considered Mays to be underrated, with better seasons and more milestones than more beloved candidates, like Luis Tiant and Billy Pierce. I think another review of pitchers may be in order, but I still believe that the pitchers of this era get short shrift.
7) Louis Clark Brock
Reaffirming my status as a career voter. He does well in Black and Gray Ink (owing, no doubt, to his prowess on the basepaths), and his prime WS and Top 10 WS seasons are notable. He’s hanging in there. 42nd on Ken Shouler Top 100. 58th on Sporting News Top 100. 73rd on SABR Top 100. 77th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. New York Times Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
8) Richard Redding – “Cannonball Dick”
Definitely the best remaining Negro League pitcher. That in and of itself may not merit his election. Hanging in there thanks to my support for Mays, who has a strikingly similar arc.
9) Edd J Roush
One of those center fielders, just sitting there with their big career numbers and not much else. I knocked Hugh Duffy down several spots because of my concerns about his one great season. Roush has more consistency, so he hangs in there.
10) Edgar Charles Rice – “Sam”
An impressive career considering his late start. Not much in the way of peak, but considering how few Win Shares the Senators had to divvy up, he did pretty well. That flatness is of special concern, in light of the arrival of…
11) David Gene Parker – “Cobra”
12) Dwight Michael Evans
Two newcomers, two right-fielders, two fellows with very different career arcs. Both strong enough to make the ballot, and possibly deserving of a higher placement on future ballots (I am always fearful of SNT Syndrome). I’m placing Parker ahead for now, owing to his significantly stronger prime. It’s a better package.
13) Daniel Joseph “Rusty” Staub – “Le Grand Orange”
I‘m moving him up, because his career numbers actually stand out more than I realized. 358 WS is nothing to sneeze at, but his 5-year prime of 145 WS is also a standout. Imagine if he’d spent his career with one great team. 96th on SABR Top 100. 97th on Ken Shouler Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
14) Graig Nettles
Making his ballot debut. I remember him as a very consistent third baseman; no Schmidt or Brett, but significantly better than, say, Carney Lansford. I’m a little surprised he placed this high, but the numbers point to a strong career. Similar to Darrell Evans, who I thought went in kind of fast.
15) Hugh Duffy
I’m moving him back ahead of Chuck Klein. They’re similarly prime heavy, but Duffy’s better career, as well as the current surfeit of right fielders, gives him the edge. He sort of reminds me of George Sisler., who I supported for a very long time.

<u>Other Top 10 Finishers</u>
Jacob Peter Beckley – “Eagle Eye”
I favor career numbers, so he’s still hovering close to the ballot. However, his career is so utterly peakless, his seasonal performances are so completely without contributions above the norm, I’m hard pressed to call him a great. He and Luis Aparicio are both appealing to my preference for a consistent career, but remain just short of the ballot.
Louis Rogers Browning – “Pete”
A little like Rube Waddell as a slugger. Definitely better than I expected, and I think there’s a very strong case to be made that he’s might be better than Wynn. His position and era are well-represented, and I’m not entirely convinced that he’s outstanding enough to move up. So many frickin’ center fielders.
   93. AJMcCringleberry Posted: April 15, 2007 at 02:30 AM (#2335225)
PHOM - Evans, Cedeno, Parker

1. Tony Perez - Long career (23rd in games, 34th in total bases, 62nd in runs created) and a nice peak split between third and first.

2. Dwight Evans - Similar to Perez. I give the edge to Perez due to a slightly better peak.

3. Bucky Walters - Great peak and good career value, 3000+ IP 115 ERA+.

4. Rusty Staub - Very long career (11th all time in games, 30th all time in ABs) with a decent peak. 59th in career total bases, 72nd in career XBH, 36th in career times on base.

5. Dizzy Trout - Nice peak. '44 was fantastic, he was robbed of MVP by teammate Newhouser.

6. Jimmy Ryan - Good hitting center fielder, long career

7. Bob Johnson - Outstanding hitter, never below a 125 OPS+ in his major league career.

8. Nellie Fox - Great defender, average hitter. Long career, 82nd in career times on base.

9. Jake Beckley - Good hitter, played forever. 86th in career XBH.

10. Gavvy Cravath - Superb hitter, not much of a defender. Gets a couple of minor league seasons added to his major league totals. 4th on the all time home run list when he retired.

11. Graig Nettles - Excellent defender, good hitter over a long career. Brooks Robinson-lite.

12. Buddy Bell - Very similar to Nettles. Both decent hitters and great defenders with long careers.

13. Ken Singleton - 132 career OPS+. Very good peak, 4 year with an OPS+ over 150.

14. Bobby Bonds - 130 career OPS+. 461 SB, 332 HR, 5 30/30 seasons.

15. Ceasar Cedeno - A good defensive centerfield with a 123 OPS+ and 500+ steals.

16. Dave Parker
17. Vada Pinson
18. Tommy John
19. Norm Cash
20. Hugh Duffy
21. Edd Roush
22. Tommy Leach
23. Bus Clarkson
24. Bob Elliott
25. Ron Cey
26. Marvin Williams
27. Dave Concepcion
28. George Van Haltren
29. Harry Hooper
30. Luis Tiant
31. Alejandro Oms
32. Buzz Arlett
33. Orlando Cepeda
34. Gil Hodges
35. Burleigh Grimes
36. Reggie Smith
37. Jose Cruz
38. Willie Davis
39. Fielder Jones
40. Dick Redding
41. Rick Reuschel
42. Pie Traynor
43. Jim Kaat
44. George Foster
45. Pete Browning
46. Wally Berger
47. Fred Lynn
48. Vern Stephens
49. Dick Bartell
50. Toby Harrah

Fingers - I'm not sure about him, I'd like for a relief pitcher to have more than a couple of dominant seasons.
   94. AJMcCringleberry Posted: April 15, 2007 at 02:58 AM (#2335243)
7. Leroy Matlock: He’s back. Many years ago now I saw Matlock as the best available pitcher. My consensus scores plummeted…. But in reviewing NgL players, I looked back on his thread, and I don’t really understand why I lost my nerve on him. The MLEs look HOMable, even if you see that 1937 season as a little less than 43 WS. I think we’ve whiffed on him, and that someday when we’ve got more better information, he’ll be one of the “lost” guys that no one talked about who ends up as a HOMer.


For some reason I don't even have Matlock on my list of players. I just skimmed through his thread...I don't know if he's ballot worthy, but I'll have to give him a closer look.
   95. yest Posted: April 15, 2007 at 06:04 AM (#2335356)
1997 ballot
Parker, Cecil Cooper, and Ruffing make my PHOM this year


1. Pie Traynor most 3B putouts 7 times (made my personal HoM in 1942)
2. Nellie Fox led his league in putouts a record 10 years in a row (made my personal HoM in 1971)
3. Chuck Klein 4 hr titles 1 triple crown (made my personal HoM in 1951)
4. Tony Oliva most hits 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1983)
5. Mickey Welch please see his thread (made my personal HoM all the way back in 1898)
6. Sam Rice imagine if he would have started earlier (made my personal HoM in 1940)
7. Pete Browning 13th in career batting avg. (made my personal HoM in 1906)
8. Jake Beckley 30th in hits (made my personal HoM in 1915)
9. Hack Wilson 4 hr titles RBI season record (made my personal HoM in 1940)
10. Hugh Duffy had 100 runs or RBIs every full year he played (made my personal HoM in 1908)
11. Addie Joss 2nd in era (made my personal HoM in 1918)
12. George Kell very good hitter and fielder at important and under elected position (made my personal HoM in 1963)
13. Bill Madlock 4 batting tittles (made my personal HoM in 1984)
14. Al Oliver 1 batting title (made my personal HoM in 1991)
15. Jim Rice hit 300 7 times (made my personal HoM in 1995)
16. Rollie Fingers best HoF speech ever (made my personal HoM in 1991)
17. Harvey Kuenn led AL shortstops in putouts twice assists once (made my personal HoM in 1972)
18. Heinie Manush 330 batting avg. (made my personal HoM in 1957)
19. Edd Roush 323 batting avg (made my personal HoM in 1937)
20. Hilton Smith see his thread (made my personal HoM in 1964)
21. Ray Schalk the best catcher ever (made my personal HoM in 1938)
22. George Van Haltren 31st in runs (made my personal HoM in 1925)
23. Jimmy Ryan 30th in runs (made my personal HoM in 1926)
24. Luis Aparicio being a better offensive player then Rabbit puts him here (made my personal HoM in 1979)
25. Jake Daubert 29th in triples (made my personal HoM in 1930)
26. Bobby Veach most doubles twice (made my personal HoM in 1931)
27. Bill Mazeroski 2nd greatest (fielding) 2nd baseman (McPhee‘s 1) ever (made my personal HoM in 1984)
28. Roy Thomas most times on base 6 times (made my personal HoM in 1984)
29. Dave Parker would be higher with out his extra credit (makes my personal HoM this year)
30. Gavvy Cravath most active HRs 1918, 1919 and 1920 (made my personal HoM in 1928)
31. Lou Brock like the steals more then most (made my personal HoM in 1984)
32. Kiki Cuyler 2299 hits (made my personal HoM in 1968)
33. Lloyd Waner had the most OF putouts 4 times, finished 2nd once and finished 3rd twice (made my personal HoM in 1968)
34. Ginger Beaumont 1902 batting title (made my personal HoM in 1932)
35. John McGraw 3rd in on base percentage (made my personal HoM in 1930)
36. Steve Garvey 200 hits 6 times (made my personal HoM in 1984)
37. Jim Bottomley 2313 hits (made my personal HoM in 1968)
38. Levi Meyerle best rate season ever (made my personal HoM in 1975)
39. Eddie Yost most walks 6 times most times on base 3 times (made my personal HoM in 1987)
40. Rabbit Maranville best shortstop before Ozzie moves down do to reading accounts on how his drinking hurt his team more then the numbers show(made my personal HoM in 1939)
41. George J. Burns most walks 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1932)
42. Orlando Cepada 297 batting avg 379 HRs (made my personal HoM in 1987)
43. Stuffy McInnis led in fielding% 6 times (made my personal HoM in 1987)
44. Deacon Phillippe best walks/9 IP in the 20th centaury (made my personal HoM in 1988)
45. Babe Adams led in WHIP 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1992)
46. Buddy Myer 1935 batting title (made my personal HoM in 1996)
47. Cecil Cooper most rbi twice (makes my personal HoM this year)

explanation for players not on my ballot
Dick Redding barring new evidence not one will make my ballot (the HoF vote has absolutely no bearing on my vote )
Charley Jones no black list points
Tony Perez needs more of a peak to meet with his career
   96. Al Peterson Posted: April 15, 2007 at 05:41 PM (#2335491)
100 years at this, my we're getting old.

1997 ballot. Still picking through the backlog as best possible. The system used for my ranking entails a little bit of everything: WS, WARP, OPS+/ERA+, positional adjustments, even some contemporary opinion. Once that is assembled I try and make other changes to metrics when deemed fit. My hope by adding in all this material is to get the most complete picture, a composite worthy player. The results of this work tend to favor prime/peak players over career types but that is not 100% tried and true.

1. Dick Redding (1). Career was long – decent peak along the way. Outstanding fastball in his day according to James/Neyer book. So he didn’t get into the Hall of Fame; maybe the information collected by HOF committee wasn’t pertinent to Redding’s prime years. He deserves some WWI credit, thus patching up a bald spot in his prime years as 1918 and 1919 were affected.

2. Norm Cash (2). Count me as one who sees him as a viable candidate. Maybe the Tigers used him optimally by sitting him vs leftys. Still did a lot of good things. You can’t throw away his peak year even though it stands out from the rest of his work.

3. Tommy Leach (3). Combination hot corner/centerfielder could field a little, hit a little. Second all-time in inside-the-park home runs to Wahoo Sam Crawford. Someone else stated he was uniquely valuable in his particular era and I agree he meant more in the particular niche he performed in.

4. Bobby Bonds (4). Even with the constant trades, drinking problem and whatnot his combination of speed/power made him a very valuable player. He wasn’t the next Mays, or as good as his son. Five tools on display.

5. Reggie Smith (5). The other Reggie wasn’t half bad. Played some CF before moving down the defensive spectrum, hitting along the way. Not real durable but lots of value when in the lineup. Should we add in the year in Japan at the end of his career? I don’t currently.

6. Roger Bresnahan (7). Work was good behind the plate, also shagged some flies some years. This was in centerfield so he must have been somewhat athletic out there. Fills a short gap during the turn of the century where we have lacked a backstop.

7. Tony Mullane (8). Old time pitcher who threw plenty well, a good hitter to boot. Had some playing time issues since he missed seasons due to being blacklisted. He’s amongst the best of his era when accounting for the time outside of baseball due to conflicts with different leagues. Goes on the all-Nickname team as well.

8. Bob Johnson (9). His peak might not be as high as others but at the same time for 13 years in the majors he has the highest floor of anyone. By floor I mean what can we reasonably expect from him in terms of performance. During those 13 years you knew exactly what you got with Bob Johnson – nothing less, rarely more. I guess my system rewards consistency as well as greatness. WARP numbers like him, WS not so much. Over his career his teams underperformed Pythag W-L by 15 games so he loses some Win Shares there.

I’m afraid he’s between the two voting factions. He doesn’t have the peak but was effective longer that the high peak, short career players. He doesn’t have the career but was at a higher production level than the low peak, long career players. Either way, he stacks up nicely compared to the other LFs hanging around.

Indian Bob got a late start (one deserving of 1-2 years of MiL credit), played on bad teams in ballparks that favored pitchers, and got left out of post-war ML baseball while he was still doing well at age 39. 10 years of top 10 performances in OPS+, 106.6 WARP1 for 13 years with no padding on the front or back end.

I guess they were right. While others shot to stardom, collected an MVP, and faded from sight, along rolled Bob Johnson, punching the time clock with excellence far from the spotlight. Forgotten while playing, lost in history. Somewhere Joe Medwick laughs at the fact he got in while his contemporary remains in limbo.

9. Mickey Welch (10). Another one of those annoying 300 game winners. Was it due to luck, run support, bad opponents? Still a feat to accomplish, sometimes I need to remind myself that and not totally overlook Smilin’ Mickey.

10. Dwight Evans (-). His value is spread fairly evenly across the years – he was an excellent fielder with an OK bat, then an excellent bat with an OK glove. Flattens out any peak but allowed him to play forever with value throughout. 1981 was quite a year for him and who knows what an entire season would have brought.

11. Alejandro Oms (11). The body of work included Negro and Latin American play. Another career lost in translation since the Cuban time can be tricky to compute.

12. Jake Beckley (12). I want to say something substantial about him, add some insight no one else has. Yeah, not really happening. Very good, very long, he’s hardly the worst player out there. And if playing that long was so easy than everyone would have done it.

13. Buddy Bell (13). I’ll go and say he was better than Nettles. Not by much and I could change my mind but that’s where I stand. Underrrated by Win Shares – during his prime he was on some bad teams which in addition underperformed their expected win totals. For an 8 year period his teams underachieved by 32 games. Throw some more WS into his prime and you see a stronger run in the middle of his career. Also, if Darrell Evans was as good a fielder as Buddy Bell then I must have missed something.

14. Carl Mays (14). Good hitting pitcher, aided by run support at high levels. Even with docking for that we’re talking about a pretty good hurler.

15. Bucky Walters (15). Good hitting pitcher, aided by fielding support at high levels for some years. Wartime dominator who did some good things before WWII broke out as well. Decided to take a pitcher over another bat.

16-20: Perez, Poles, Ryan, Rizzuto, Fingers
21-25: Browning, Clarkson, Byrd, Nettles, Bancroft
26-30: Easter, Willis, Shocker, Duffy, Cey
31-35: Brock, Tiant, John, Luque, C Jones
36-40: Cedeno, Grimes, Munson, Ben Taylor, Schang
41-45: Cicotte, Bridges, Elliott, Lundy, Roush
46-50: Tenace, Doyle, Trout, Sutter, F Jones

Top 10 Returnees: Fox (not top 50), Roush(#45), Browning (#21), Perez (#16), Charley Jones (#35), Fingers (#20). Fox is just someone I don’t get. Maybe fills a positional/era gap but I don’t hold to that rigorous “we must have a player covering years X through Y”. The defense was nice but the offense was lacking – it leaned on the OBP side but not so heavily. Roush is falling through the CF glut. Browning have received ballot spots in the past from me and might again. Perez at #16…oh so close. Like him, fits well with the others from the 70s and its just a matter of time before a ballot spot. Charley Jones gets some of that blacklisted credit, just not enough. Fingers is the best reliever available but not so valuable as long term starters. Overall, no qualms except maybe Fox and he did have the weak competition argument similar to Sewell.

New guys: Dave Parker had the promising start then drugs, weight took many of the tools he had that made him special. Ken Griffey Sr. was a nice preview for his son. Garry Templeton was neither the man talked about as HOF in his early 20s or a malingerer as thought of after his career was over. The truth, as in most cases, was somewhere inbetween. Bus Clarkson is not new but the new estimates in his thread jump him 20 slots, not far off ballot.
   97. Chris Fluit Posted: April 15, 2007 at 09:17 PM (#2335695)
1. Nellie Fox, 2B (3). PHoM- 1976. Lots of hits (led his league 4 times for a career total of 2663, 9th most among second basemen), lots of balls in play (led his league in at-bats per strikeout 11 straight years and has the 4th best ratio ever behind HoMers Sewell and Start) and above average defense (3 Gold Gloves).

2. Cannonball Dick Redding, P (4). PHoM- 1975. Great peak years between 1914 and 1919 including a 2.14 ERA in 321 innings for Chicago in 1917 (according to i9). Lost a half a year in each of ’18 and ’19 due to military service. Even so, his career MLEs of 234-174 put him in the neighborhood if not ahead of contemporaries like Coveleski, Faber and Rixey.

3. Lou Brock, LF (5). PHoM- 1985. More patience than he’s usually given credit for- his career OBP is 50 points higher than his AVG and 13 points higher than the league. Never the best in the league but a solid contributor for a long-time with intermittent All-Star appearances from ‘67 to ’79 and significant gray ink from ’64 to ’74.

4. Alejandro Oms, CF (6). PHoM- 1984. His career overlapped too much with Cristobal Torriente for him to be considered the best, but he had a long prime at a high level. Was consistently among the league leaders from 1923 to ’35, usually in average but occasionally in home runs. Superior defensive reputation nearly pushed him ahead of Brock, but Brock keeps the lead based on established rather than estimated career numbers.

5. Burleigh Grimes, P (7). PHoM- 1984. My ballot is starting to fill up with this kind of player- missing the huge peak but a long excellent prime for a decade or more which results in great career numbers. Still, Grimes did have two separate peaks: first in 1920-’21 when he was the best NL’s pitcher in 1921 (138 ERA+ in 302 IP, compared to Adams 144 in 160 and Doak 142 in 208), and a second in 1928-29 (1st in Wins, 2nd in WHIP in ’28; 1st in ERA+, 2nd in ERA in ’29).

6. Hugh Duffy, CF (8). PHoM- 1995. The Triple Crown winner in 1894, Duffy picked up black ink as early as ’90 and as late as ’97. An excellent center-fielder who could have won Gold Gloves in ’93 and ’95, he was moved to left not because of poor play but because his team acquired Billy Hamilton.

7. Don Newcombe, P (9). PHoM- 1987. Great years in ’50-’51 and ’55-’56 interrupted by military service in the Korean War. Missing a rise to his career due to integration and a tail due to his own personal issues (and no, he doesn’t get credit for the latter). With proper credit, he’s well over 200 wins for his career and though he isn’t in the same class as contemporaries like Whitey Ford and Billy Pierce, he’s close enough to be worthy of induction.

8. Orlando Cepeda, 1B (11). PHoM- 1996. Cepeda is surprisingly close to his year of eligibility classmate Al Kaline. They have similar amounts of black ink. Cepeda led his league in doubles in 1958, in home runs and RBI in 1961 and in RBI again in 1967. And they have similar lengths to their prime, with Cepeda finishing in the top ten in his league in hits 7, avg and total bases 8, slugging 9, and home runs and RBI 10. At his position, I prefer Cepeda’s peak to that of Beckley and his career to that of Chance.

9. Luis Aparicio, SS (12). PHoM- 1987. He was a star on the basepaths and with the glove. He did what shortstops of his era were asked to do and he did it better than any of the others. He led his league in stolen bases for 9 straight seasons from ‘56-‘64 and he stayed in the top ten for another 4 until he was 35 in 1969. He won five straight Gold Gloves from ‘58-‘62 and then another 4 in alternating years from ‘64-‘70. Plus, he was notoriously hard to strike out, finishing in the top ten in that category for 16 straight years from ‘58 to ‘73 and leading the league his league twice in ‘69 and ‘73.

10. Jim Rice, LF (10). I wasn’t the only one to vote for Rice! Monster years from 1977 to ’79 leading the league twice in home runs and RBI, and in total bases for all three seasons. Even the uber-stats like those years as he was top five in OPS+ and top two in runs created for all three. Another monster year in ’83, leading the league in all three power categories again. Not a great defender, but unlike Brock, not that much below average. Ink scores show him to be similar to Duffy and Cepeda. Doesn’t move up this year as I’m not quite ready to make him PHoM.

11. Rollie Fingers, RP (13). Only Gossage and Rivera have gone to more All-Star games as a reliever than Rollie Fingers. Top two in games pitched six years in a row from ’72 to ’77. Top four in games saved eleven out of twelve years from ’71 to ’82. Retired as the career leader in saves. ERA under 2 three times (’73, ’81 and a short ’84), and under 3 eleven times in twelve years from ’71 to ’82 and again in that short ’84.

12. Jake Beckley, 1B (14). Never the best of the best, but he was good enough for long enough that he has some of the strongest career numbers of any batter on the board. 31st all-time in hits, 4th in triples, 34th in RBI, 41st in runs, 60th in both total bases and times on base, 63rd in doubles and 77th in runs created. Considering schedule length and era, he’s a much better candidate than HoM eligible Tony Perez or HoF eligible Harold Baines.

13. Vic Willis, P (15). Moved up relative to other pitchers and onto the ballot relative to other positions. Had an incredible run from 1899 to 1901-02. His league-leading ERA of 2.50 was 1.66 better than league average in ’99. He led his league in ERA+ in both ’99 and ’01, before posting a 2.20 ERA in 410 IP in ‘02. After that, he became more of a workhorse though his ’06 season stands out as a fourth excellent year.

14. Pie Traynor, 3B (n/a). The best third baseman available. Good career rate (.320/.362/.435 in 1941 games) and cumulative stats (2416 hits, 321 doubles, 1183 runs, 1273 RBI). Not much of a peak but a solid 11-year prime from 1923 to 1933.

15. Ernie Lombardi, C (n/a). Lombardi was a solid All-Star 8 times between 1936 and 1945 and the MVP in 1938. He was top ten in the league 5 times in Home Runs, 7 times in AVG and 8 times in SLG.

Top Returnees:
Pete Browning: I voted for Browning a couple of elections back but a more recent and thorough look convinced me to drop him to 5th among centerfielders behind Roush and Pinson.

Edd Roush: #17. I’m reluctant to pull the trigger on Roush as I’m worried he might be the 1920s version of JD Drew. Good numbers when he’s in the line-up but out of the line-up so much with contract disputes and injuries that he’s not truly elite

Tony Perez: Can't see putting him ahead of Beckley (who is on ballot) or Taylor (who is #20)

New Eligibles: Nobody makes the ballot.
   98. dan b Posted: April 16, 2007 at 12:54 AM (#2335870)
PHoM 1997 – Da. Evans, Singleton, C. Mays

1. Dean PHoM 1976. 1975 reevaluation of great pitching peaks put him on my ballot for the first time.
2. Roush PHoM 1942. Better than Ashburn, long overdue.
3. Walters PHoM 1968. Nice peak.
4. Duffy PHoM 1912. I’ve been looking at how players on the ballot compare with the median level of already enshrined HoMers using WS. Duffy would be in the top half using 5 consecutive seasons, 10 consecutive seasons and 8 best seasons.
5. Fox, N PHoM 1987.If Maz could hit like Nellie, the 1960 WS hero would have been elected by now.
6. Bando PHoM 1994. Close to Boyer, James has him ahead. NHBA #11.
7. Howard, E PHoM 1995. NHBA #15
8. Rizzuto PHoM 1995. 1993 reevaluation moved him up. Another player deserving more WWII credit.
9. Bresnahan PHoM 1928. SABR Dead ball era committee has him #1. No major league catchers between Ewing and Hartnett is not being fair to all eras.
10. Cooper, W PHoM 1942. Returns to my ballot in 1995 after 44-year hiatus.
11. Burns, G. PHoM 1996. Came close to making PHoM during the 1929-1932 trough. Probably should have, better late than never. His 10-consective year peak is above the HoM median as is his 3-year non-consecutive.
12. Leach PHoM 1926.
13. Singleton PHoM 1997. Not many players on ballot with 3-32+ and 6-27+ WS seasons. How much better would the HoM be than the HOF if the worst player in our hall was Ken Singleton?
14. Mays, C PHoM 1997. His era could use another pitcher. A quality pitcher we are overlooking. NHBA #38.
15. Howard, F I’ll take Hondo’s peak over Bobby Bonds. I can’t bring myself to PHoMing him.
16. </b>Parker</b> Do the first base line Dave. NHBA #14.
17. Cravath PHoM 1967. mle credit where credit is due.
18. Willis, V PHoM 1941.
19. Browning PHoM 1912.
20. Bonds, Bo Barry’s dad was pretty good.
21. Munson NHBA #14
22. Newcombe Giving more war and mle credit (1993)
23. Berger
24. Rosen If Moore, why not Rosen? If a great 5 consecutive season peak were the only measure we considered, Rosen would have been elected in 1964.
25. Staub
26. Evans, Dw
27. Perez
28. Cepeda
29. Tiant
30. Cash, N
31. Doyle PHoM 1930.
32. Chance, F PHoM 1921.
33. Jones, C – I have voted for him (4) times – 1898 thru 1901. When I dropped him in ’02, he received only 2 votes. Ed Williamson was on 18 ballots; Arlie Latham drew more support with 3 votes. My 1898 ballot comment – “9. Jones. Two-year hold out probably costs him a couple places”. Nobody was giving credit for not playing back then, as we hadn’t tackled issues like war and mil credit yet. If as many voters had treated his hold out years like he was an all-star back then as are doing so now, he may have been elected by 1920. His 1988 top-10 finish pushed me to re-evaluate for 1989 and give him holdout credit. A reconstructed PHoM based on if I thought then like I think now, would have put him in my PHoM during the trough years of 1929-32 if not 1921.
34. Grimes
35. Ryan
36. Van Haltren Do 3 years of slightly below average pitching really merit Van Haltren this much more support than Jimmy Ryan?
37. Redding Fared well in the Cool Papa’s survey, as did Spots Poles and Dobie Moore.
38. Elliott
39. Brock not enough peak to be higher
40. Pinson
41. Smith, Reg less peak and less career than Brock
42. Sutter I like him better than Fingers.
43. Arlett
44. Traynor
45. Nettles
46. Cicotte Better character and a couple more good years made possible by better character would have made him a HoFer if not a HoMer.
47. Gomez More peak than Tiant.
48. Bell
49. Murcer
50. Cey
   99. Ken Fischer Posted: April 16, 2007 at 01:19 AM (#2335888)
1997 Ballot

This will be an interesting election. Several candidates have a shot at getting in. I’ve listed my top 35.

1-Dick Redding
It’s time to rally for the Cannonball!!! He is ranked by many as one of the top pitchers of the pre-Negro League days.

2-George Van Haltren 344 WS
His numbers deserve the high ranking. I know…I’m a Van diehard…GVH and Stephens. I just can’t drop them down. They belong.

3-Mickey Welch 354 WS
How can we forget that 1885 season!

4-Carl Mays 256 WS
256 win shares in an offense dominated era is impressive.

5-Craig Nettles 321 WS
Great plays on the big stage. His low career batting average keeps him out of the other hall. He probably stayed around 3 years too long.

6-Vern Stephens 265 WS
His comps are Doerr & Lazzeri but I believe he was better. A forerunner of the modern power hitting shortstop.

7-Wally Schang 245 WS
He played for several flag winners. Schang had great plate discipline. At the age of 39 he led the AL in HBP.

8-Rollie Fingers 188 WS
Best reliever to come on the ballot in awhile. Hard to judge…he may move up next time.

9-Bob Johnson 287 WS
A raw deal…Indian Bob will forever be hurt by playing for mostly bad teams and the overlapping eras he played in (Live Ball & War Years). A solid performer year after year…he’s deserves a good look.

10-Dwight Evans 347 WS
Eight Golden Gloves and led twice in OPS. Like the other Evans of his era he has been given the shaft…but not by the HOM. I expect Dwight to make it in soon.

11-Jake Beckley 318 WS
Like his career value. Connor, Crawford and O’Rourke and Clarke are all comps.

12-Edd Roush 314 WS
McGraw didn’t get along with him but liked the way he played.

13-Pete Browning 225 WS
A great Players League year shows Pete belongs.

14-Nellie Fox 304 WS
Fox gets lost in the bridge between eras. Some great years in the late 50s get him on my ballot.

15-Tony Perez 349 WS
Perhaps he’s overlooked because of all those other Reds of the 70s. He piled up a lot of numbers. He makes it on my ballot because of his longevity.


16-Lou Brock 348 WS
17-Tony Mullane 399 WS
18-Luis Tiant 256 WS
19-Burleigh Grimes 286 WS
20-Jim Rice 282 WS
21-Gil Hodges 263 WS
22-Dave Parker 327 WS
23-Dick Lundy
24-Curt Flood 221 WS
25-Jim Kaat 268 WS
26-Red Schoendienst 262 WS
27- Bill Buckner
28-Ray Dandridge
29-Sam Rice 327 WS
30-Jimmy Ryan 316 WS
31-Luis Aparico 293 WS
32-Orlando Cepeda 310 WS
33-Tommy John 289 WS
34-Ernie Lombardi 218 WS
35-Tony Lazzeri 252 WS
   100. rawagman Posted: April 16, 2007 at 06:53 AM (#2335944)
Ken - is that a different, Negro League Bill Buckner in 27th place?
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