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Hall of Merit
— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best

Sunday, March 25, 2007

1997 Ballot Discussion

1997 (April 9)—elect 3
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)

347 112.9 1973 Dwight Evans-RF
327 86.9 1973 Dave Parker-RF
259 71.3 1974 Ken Griffey-RF/LF
209 73.1 1976 Garry Templeton-SS
176 54.6 1977 Terry Puhl-RF
170 55.2 1980 Tom Herr-2B
177 51.5 1980 Lloyd Moseby-CF
158 55.1 1974 Rick Dempsey-C*
151 47.4 1981 Mookie Wilson-CF
150 46.5 1979 Terry Kennedy-C
128 49.8 1977 Jim Clancy-P
126 45.6 1980 Ernie Whitt-C
108 43.5 1979 Dan Petry-P
111 38.8 1977 Warren Cromartie-LF/RF
107 38.2 1978 Ed Whitson-P
115 34.5 1979 Ron Hassey-C

Players Passing Away in 1996
HoMers
Age Elected

81 1976 Willard Brown-CF

Candidates
Age Eligible

100 1940 Milt Gaston-P
84 1952 Babe Dahlgren-1B
83——Mel Allen-Broadcaster
81 1959 Bill Nicholson-RF
79 1959 Barney McCosky-CF/LF
77——Charles O. Finley-Owner
75 1959 Connie Ryan-2B
74 1959 Ewell Blackwell-P
71 1965 Alex Kellner-P
70 1965 Del Ennis-LF
69 1968 Jim Busby-CF
59 1983 Joe Hoerner-RP

Upcoming Candidate
34 1999 Mike Sharperson-3B/2B

Thanks, Dan!

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 25, 2007 at 09:51 PM | 319 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Page 4 of 4 pages  < 1 2 3 4
   301. TomH Posted: April 16, 2007 at 06:55 PM (#2336366)
DL, just to be clear, I agree that Davey B's play at SS could make him overall more valuable than Nellie - I was only speaking of offense before.
   302. Mike Green Posted: April 16, 2007 at 07:01 PM (#2336373)
Fox vs. Bancroft/Concepcion...Fox was a better hitter at his peak in '57 and '59 than the other two. His in-season durability was remarkable. He's kind of the anti-Reggie Smith...didn't draw walks, didn't hit for power, played every game while he was young, was done by 35.

I suppose that it comes down to defence, and the measures for the careers of Fox and Bancroft are particularly inexact. Fox had a somewhat better defensive reputation than the other two, although that and five bucks will get you some coffee. I suppose that it is important to note for the benefit of some of the younger voters that Fox' reputation at the time was probably enhanced by his high batting averages, to a greater degree than would likely be true now.
   303. Juan V Posted: April 16, 2007 at 07:13 PM (#2336383)
As hitters, I see them as pretty much equal, maybe with Concepción slightly behind. But, once I consider the variable baseline, I rank them clearly Concepción ('70s shortstop) > Bancroft ('10s-'20s shortstop) > Fox (second baseman)
   304. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: April 16, 2007 at 08:01 PM (#2336418)
Assistance Needed: I just realized I forgot to fill out a couple of spots in my spreadsheet. If anyone has a copy of Win Shares handy, and can tell me, for Dwight Evans: 1)His defensive grade, and 2)How many years he was a WS Gold Glove winner, it would be appreciated. (I doubt it will change anything, but I'd like to have the info handy.)
   305. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: April 16, 2007 at 08:13 PM (#2336426)
TomH, Fox's AL wasn't integrated either! Sure, there were a few black players, but the vast majority of the black talent was in the NL.
   306. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: April 16, 2007 at 08:15 PM (#2336429)
Devin:

B- and no WS Gold Gloves.
   307. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: April 16, 2007 at 08:18 PM (#2336430)
Mike Green, but *even if* you posit that Fox fielded his position as well as Bancroft and Concepción did (and neither FWS nor FRAA agree with that), he still played second while they played shortstop! So again, with the bats equal, the positional advantage of Bancroft, Concepción, and Rizzuto is decisive.

Juan V., you are a good man.
   308. AJMcCringleberry Posted: April 16, 2007 at 08:27 PM (#2336440)
Fox had 111 FWS, second most by a second baseman (Maz had 112).

Concepcion 117 FWS (5th most) and Bancroft had 103 (13th most).
   309. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: April 16, 2007 at 08:39 PM (#2336450)
Thanks, John. Ballot is coming...probably pretty close to 8:00.
   310. Mike Green Posted: April 16, 2007 at 08:53 PM (#2336467)
Dan R, the possibility exists that Fox fielded his position better than Concepcion and much better than Bancroft. FRAA and Fielding WS are extremely crude tools for measuring defence. And the bats are not exactly equal, depending on how you address peak/prime/career issues and the weight given to in-season durability. Fox's peak was noticeably better than Concepcion's in particular.

With Dwight Evans vs. Singleton, we know that they played the same position during the same era, and we can compare them using a variety of tools. We know that Evans was a much, much better fielder (and a much better baserunner) than Singleton. To say that Singleton's modest peak hitting advantage outweighs Evans' other advantages, including career length, is, to me, much more surprising than the middle infield comparison.
   311. DL from MN Posted: April 16, 2007 at 09:04 PM (#2336482)
> Dan R, the possibility exists that Fox fielded his position better than Concepcion and much
> better than Bancroft.

Bancroft was lauded as the best SS glove of his era and the best ever until that point. He was the Ozzie Smith of his era (unless Dick Lundy was). Fox never measured up to Mazeroski. Concepcion was in the mix for the best fielding SS year after year but there were contemporaries just about as good.
   312. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: April 16, 2007 at 09:24 PM (#2336496)
DL from MN, sorry this is so late, but here is the *right* way to calculate the DH adjustment to use on BP's season-adjusted BRAA and BRAR.

A guy produces 90 runs in 452 outs. He would do so regardless of whether he is in the AL or the NL, since the quality of pitching is assumed to be equal. In a "neutral" league, one halfway between AL and NL run scoring (.199 runs per out), he'd be a league average hitter. An AL team will, on average, score 3.7% more runs than neutral (.206 runs per out), and an NL team will score 3.7% fewer (.192 runs per out).

BP defines replacement as a .230 EqA, which is (.23^2.5)*5*Out = 57.33 EQR in those 452 outs. One EQR is 1/9 of a win. In a .206 runs per out league, one win equals 10.69 runs, while in a .192 runs per out league, one win equals 10.16 runs. Thus, according to BP, a replacement hitter would generate 57.33*10.69/9 = 68.1 real runs in the AL, and 57.33*10.16/9 = 64.7 real runs in the NL. BP would thus have the hitter at 90-68.1 = 21.9 real runs above replacement in the AL, and 90-64.7 = 25.3 real runs above replacement in the NL. Converting those back to wins, the AL hitter is 21.9/10.69 = 2.05 wins above replacement, while the NL hitter is 25.3/10.16 = 2.49 wins above replacement. So the answer is a 2.49-2.05 = 0.44 win adjustment per 452 outs.
   313. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: April 16, 2007 at 09:31 PM (#2336501)
Belanger was certainly as great a fielder as Concepción and perhaps greater, but I wouldn't hold that against David. Other than that I don't see anyone close to Concepción, at least not with any sort of consistency...Burleson was phenomenal but didn't last long.
   314. Paul Wendt Posted: April 16, 2007 at 09:31 PM (#2336502)
(referring to the Ballot thread)
'zop
9. Edd Roush- The $ added system has him slightly below the in/out line, but I like the peak and the all-around play.

It seems that he was one of the stars who did not "adapt" well to the 1920s style of play. (The word is in scare quotes because I am not sure where there was adaptation, where merely a change in conditions favorable to the player's style.) Maranville is another, albeit at a lower level, a good offensive player during the teens, a poor one in the twenties.


14. Elston Howard- My ballot slants strongly Yankee; coincidence that I'm a Yankee fan? Either way, this is another guy who's not getting proper credit from the electorate... how many catchers peak in their 30's without external influences that hinder their development? If only Howard were white...

There was a fine players families panel at the NJ SABR meeting one or two winters ago. The chapter meets at the Yogi Berra Museum, Montclair State U. The Berra & Howard story is interesting. The other panelists were Berra's wife and his namesake son and Monte Irvin's daughter. Every one is worth hearing if you get a chance, the best baseball panel I've experienced.


DanR #112:
112. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: April 16, 2007 at 01:04 PM (#2336250)
I do find the support for Fox, a second baseman, over all-time great defensive shortstops with similar OPS+ like Concepción, Rizzuto, and Bancroft entirely inscrutable--given equal bats, the preference has to go to the player whose defensive value is overwhelmingly superior.


I suppose Fox supporters agree with that generalization about batting for Bancroft only, and he did not play every day like Fox. Many voters do value playing "every day" and Fox is in the second tier there, where the first tier is Gehrig, Ripken, and maybe Everett Scott.

BTW I rank Fox below those three. I thought he was a marginal choice for the Hall of Fame (As I thought of Rizzuto, whom I know how has the "lost peak" argument --a recognized argument for the Hall of Merit if not Fame-- that Fox does not have.)
   315. DL from MN Posted: April 16, 2007 at 09:52 PM (#2336517)
> So the answer is a 2.49-2.05 = 0.44 win adjustment per 452 outs.

So that's 4.70 BRAR/BRAA per 452 outs or .01 per out. Seems a bit strange to be crediting players with a DH bonus for making more outs. Could we get this back to runs/plate appearance or do I have to use outs now?
   316. sunnyday2 Posted: April 16, 2007 at 09:58 PM (#2336523)
Paul, so what did the panel say about Yogi and Ellie?
   317. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: April 16, 2007 at 10:18 PM (#2336540)
0.44 wins*9 = 3.96 per out. Yeah, the problem is that BP uses outs as its denominator. On average, that should work per 685 PA, but it might differ slightly for extremely high or low OBP cases, I'd have to figure out how to account for that.
   318. DL from MN Posted: April 17, 2007 at 02:30 PM (#2336945)
Man, that downward adjustment makes Dwight Evans a dead ringer for Bob Johnson.
   319. sunnyday2 Posted: April 17, 2007 at 03:09 PM (#2336975)
Dewey is a dead ringer for a lot of guys.
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