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Hall of Merit
— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best

Monday, April 30, 2007

1998 Ballot (Elect Three)

Celebrating the 100th “year” of the Hall of Merit’s birth!

Top newbies: Gary Carter, Bert Blyleven, Willie Randolph, Dave Stieb, Jack Clark, Pedro Guerrero, Brian Downing and Carney Lansford.

Top-ten returnees: Jake Beckley, Bucky Walters, Cannonball Dick Redding, Pete Browning, Rollie Fingers, Roger Bresnahan and Bob Johnson.

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: April 30, 2007 at 12:59 PM | 127 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: April 30, 2007 at 01:08 PM (#2349856)
I use Win Shares as the base for my ranking system, though I am now using a modified version (any negative values are converted into zeroes) of BRAR, FRAR and PRAR for the NA.

I am integrating the conclusions made by DERA with Win Shares for all pitchers.

I do place (to a certain degree) domination at one's position during the player's era. That doesn't mean that domination-by-default will necessarily help you though (Gil Hodges may have been the best first baseman of his era, but he wont make my ballot).

1) Gary Carter-C (n/e): One of the true greats, I'm happy to place his name in the #1 spot. I don't think he ever played a game without going all-out. Best ML catcher for 1980, 1981, 1982, 1984, 1985 and 1986. Best NL catcher for 1979 and 1983.

2) Bert Blyleven-P (n/e): Not one of the inner-circle HoM pitchers, but a great pitcher, nevertheless. Better than quite a few hurlers from his own generation already in the HOF, IMO. Very close to being the best AL pitcher in 1973.

3) Bus Clarkson-SS/3B (1): Looks like the best shortstop of the Forties, which is surprising to me. IMO, Eric would have to be totally off with his projections for Clarkson not to be near the top of everybody's ballot. Shave off 50 WS from his MLE and he still comfortably belongs.

4) Roger Bresnahan-C/CF (2): Greatest catcher of the Deadball Era not named Santop. The poor man's Buck Ewing (Johnny Kling was the poor man's Charlie Bennett) is still good enough to be here on my ballot. Slightly better than Noisy behind the plate, but the Duke played longer and at other positions. Best major league catcher for 1905, 1906, and 1908. Best major league centerfielder for 1903.

5) Charley Jones-LF/CF (3): He was playing a more difficult position than the one that it evolved into. I gave him a little more credit for his (unfairly) blacklisted years. Best major league leftfielder for 1877, 1879 and 1884. Best AA centerfielder for 1883. Best AA leftfielder for 1885 (close to being the best in the majors).

6) Bucky Walters-P (4): The guy had a nice peak, fairly long career, and could hit. Best ML pitcher of 1939 (extremely close in 1940). Best NL pitcher of 1940 and 1944.

7) Mickey Welch-P (5): Yeah, pitching was different back then, but he still distinguished himself regardless. Best major league pitcher for 1885.

8) Pete Browning-CF/LF (6): Gotta love the peak! Best major league second baseman for 1882. Best major league leftfielder for 1883 (close in 1890). Best AA centerfielder for 1885. Best major league centerfielder for 1887.

9) Vic Willis-P (7): Willis pitched a ton of innings at an above-average rate for a long enough time for his era. Best major league pitcher for 1899. Best NL pitcher for 1901.

10) Gavvy Cravath-RF (8): I'm finally buying the arguments for him. I'm giving him MLE credit for 1908-11. Possibly would have been the best ML right fielder for 1910. Best NL right fielder for 1913 and 1914. Best ML right fielder for 1915, 1916, and 1917.
   2. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: April 30, 2007 at 01:09 PM (#2349857)
11) Alejandro Oms-CF (9): Thanks to Chris' work, another gem has been uncovered. He should gather more and more support over the next few "years."

12) Bob Elliott-3B/RF (10): He could hit, field, and didn't have a short career. Best ML third baseman for 1943, 1944, 1947, 1948, and close in 1950. Best NL third baseman for 1949 and 1950.

13) Hugh Duffy-CF/LF/RF (11): "Only" the third best centerfielder of the '90s, but that position was very strong for that decade. Best major league right fielder for 1890 and 1891. Best major league centerfielder for 1892, 1893 and 1894.

14) Pie Traynor-3B (12): Best white third baseman of his time (though J. Wilson and Beckwith was better). Best major league third baseman for 1923 (Beckwith was better), 1925, 1927, 1929 (Beckwith was better) and 1932.

15) Burleigh Grimes-P (13): Pitched for a long time behind crappy teams and defenses. Not a bad peak, too Best NL pitcher for 1921 and 1929.

Beckley, Redding, Fingers and Johnson all exist in my top-35, but they just fall short.

Of the other top newbies, Randolph is extremely close to my ballot. Clark would have been high on my ballot if he had played more (Guerrero is Jack Clark-lite in that category). Even taken into account his peers, I don't see Stieb as a strong candidate (though his peak and prime were strong).
   3. karlmagnus Posted: April 30, 2007 at 01:34 PM (#2349864)
Blyleven close to the immortal Jake, but not quite so long-serving, relative to period. Carter fits beautifully below Schnozz and Stephens but above Schang. Randolph considerably better than Fox, but for not as long. Cklark is Reggie Smith, but shorter career. Haven’t seen one like Downing before – always something new – below Lynn I think as Lynn was a CF, but not by much. Stieb a little below Rauschel as career was short, though quality good - might move up.

1. (N/A-9-9-10-7-7-5-5-4-3-5-6-5-3-4-3-4-4-3-2-2-1-1-2-6-4-4-2-1-1-1-3-
1-2-2-1-1-2-2-1-1-2-2-3-1-1-1-1-2-1-3-1-1-2-1-1-2-1-1-2-1-2-1-1-3-1-1-1
-2-2-2-2-3-1-1-1-1-1-1-2-2-2-2-2-1-2-1-1) Jake Beckley. Better than Sisler (1 point OPS+, 118 hits, more dangerous/difficult fielding position) and we’ve elected Sisler. Paul Waner is a very close comp (it was 37 years till we found one) and it thus makes no sense to have Waner far above Beckley. Significantly longer career than Clemente or Brock when you adjust the schedule, much longer relative to his contemporaries (he was #2 in AB when he retired, and #5 20 years after he retired.) Adjust his 2930 hits to full seasons and he's up there with Nap, above Babe, over 3200 hits, and OPS+ of 125 better than Van Haltren and slightly short of Wheat’s 129. Isolated power .127 vs “slugger” Wheat .135, in a less power-centered era. TB+BB/PA .455, TB+BB/Outs .707. Played for un-famous teams. Better than Keeler, almost as good as Crawford. More than a borderline HOMer, somewhere in the reaches well above the border but below the immortals. Should have been elected 80 “years” ago.

2. (N/A) Bert Blyleven Has a case for #1, but Beckley gets him by a nose on longevity – 4970IP@118 and 287-250 is great stuff, but not the longest pitching career or the most wins of his era, which Jake is as hitter (OK 2 hits short of Keeler.)

3. (N/A-7-7-6-8-6-6-7-7-6-7-7-7-9-8-7-7-4-5-3-3-3-5-4-4-4-6-4-4-4-5-2-2
-4-4-3-3-5-4-3-2-2) Addie Joss. I’m now even more convinced I missed him earlier, and that adjusting innings down for dead ball pitchers is illegitimate. 2327 IP at an ERA+ of 142. 160-97 by age 30. If you assume the rest of his career would have been 1800 IP, 120-90 with an ERA+ of 110 (somewhat conservative, assuming you boost his last sick season, though pitchers didn’t last as long as they did later) then 50% credit would put him at 3227IP, 220-142, with ERA+ of 130. 25% credit puts him at 2777 IP, 190-120, with ERA+ of 136. Substantially better than Koufax. OPS+20.

4. (N/A-10-8-7-6-4-3-3-5-9-7-8-6-4-4-4-6-4-5-6-5-4-6-7-6-5-5-6-7-5-5-4-
4-5-4-6-4-4-5-4-4-5-4-4-6-5-5-5-6-7-5-5-6-7-6-5-5-7-5-5-5-6-3-4-7-6-4-4-6-5-4-3-3) Eddie Cicotte. Only 208-149 and an ERA+ of 123, but 3223 IP, more than Waddell and should get about 25% of the bonus for the 300-win career he should have had (he was, after all, a knuckleballer, who tend to peak late.) Much better than the 20s glut – only loses to Welch on longevity – Newhouser a close comp, but Cicotte had a longer career. Successfully cursed Red Sox AND White Sox for over 8 decades!

5. (N/A-10-9-8-10-11-10-13-12-14-N/A-15-14-13-12-11-10-10-11-9-9
-10-11-10-10-10-11-11-10-9-10-7-8-11-10-8-8-10-9-5-4-4) Ernie Lombardi. Up a bit more; we’re forgetting him. Berra closely comparable Berra. 2137 hits, normalized to a 130 game season, and an OPS+ of 125 makes him a little better than Schang, but some of it was during the war years and he fielded badly. TB+BB/PA .492, TB+BB/Outs .719., the ratio between the two very low because of strikeouts, I assume. Plus a great nickname!

6. (N/A-14-15-14-13-14-15-14-15-14-15-15-13-12-13-10-11-13-12-10-
11-12-11-6-5-5) Vern Stephens. Short career – only 1859 hits, but comparing him to Reese he was much better, and not far short of Doerr. TB+BB/PA .508, TB+BB/Outs .756. OPS+ 119 Best season 1944, however. Sliding up ballot.

7. (N/A) Gary Carter. Pretty sure this is right, above Schang but below Schnozz and Stephens. 2092 hits at 115 but he was mostly a catcher so that’s 138 or so equivalent. TB+BB/PA .482, TB+BB/Outs .697.

8. (N/A-12-10-12-10-11-10-7-7-8-9-7-9-13-11-10-11-12-12-11-11-11-
12-12-11-11-12-13-12-15-14-12-14-11-10-11-11-10-12-11-10-9-9-
10-8-8-9-10-9-8-8-10-10-9-8-9-6-7-10-9-7-7-9-8-7-6-6) Sam Leever. Pity he wasn’t able to start at the normal time; 2 more years would have made him a NB. Only 2660 innings, but was blocked till 27 by the one-league 1890s and having a steady job as a schoolteacher. Believe he needs to be looked at seriously by others, and included in pitcher analysis. Mild plus for high level of moral probity.

9. (N/A-9-8-8-9-10-8-10-9-8-7-8-11-11-10-10-10-11-11-10-9-11-12-
11-14-13-11-13-13-13-13-12-11-14-13-12-11-11-12-10-10-11-12-11
-11-11-13-13-11-10-11-8-9-12-11-9-10-11-12-8-7-7) Wally Schang. When you normalize his career to 130 game seasons for the first 18 years, as I do for catchers, he gets to 1941 hits, more than Groh at an OPS+ of 117, very similar. Furthermore, TB+BB/PA=.455, TB+BB/Outs=.728, also significantly better than Groh, over very close to the same period. And he was a catcher, more difficult than 3B.

10. (N/A-10-9-8-11-N/A-15-15-14-10-10-11-12-10-12-11-9-8-9-10-10-9-
8-9-10-9-8-7-9-9-8-10-9-8-10-9-8-9-8-8-10-9-8-8-8-9-7-7-8-9-8-7-7-9-9-8-7-8-5-6-9-8-6-6-8-7-9-8-8) Charley Jones. Short career – only 1,780 normalized hits, even when adjusted to nominal 130-game-played season (but that’s more than Pike, with much less of an adjustment, and Jones too missed two prime seasons.) But OPS+ 149, TB+BB/PA .473, TB+BB/Outs .722, so above Pike and non-CF 90s OF. Down, but just above Browning
   4. karlmagnus Posted: April 30, 2007 at 01:35 PM (#2349865)
11. (N/A-15-N/A-5-4-4-6-10-8-9-7-5-5-5-7-5-6-7-6-6-7-8-7-6-6-7-8-6-6-5-
5-6-5-7-5-5-6-6-5-6-5-5-7-6-6-6-7-8-6-6-7-8-7-6-6-8-6-6-6-7-4-5-8-7-5-5-7-6-10-9-9) Pete Browning. Recalculating, to adjust ’82 as well as ’83-’92, he had 2,177 “normalized” hits, with no AA discount. However, TB+BB/PA .511, TB+BB/Outs .855. the same as Tiernan, not quite as good as Thompson, but he got no significant boost from the 1893-94 run explosion. Career OPS+162 vs. 146 Thompson and 138 Tiernan, but you have to discount a bit for AA. Also discount for not playing full seasons; the normalized hits should thus be about 1900, so drop him to just above Hondo.

12. (N/A-15-N/A-15-N/A-14-13-14-11-12-14-13-11-13-14-13-11-10-10) Frank Howard Very slightly better than Kiner – significantly longer career. Underrated by history. OPS+ 142 for 1774 hits. TB+BB/PA .546, TB+BB/Outs .805 in a pitchers’ park and era.

13. (N/A-12-11-11) Tommy John 288-231, 4710IP@111. Infinitesimally below Sutton, better than Kaat.

14. (N/A-13-12-13-13-12-14-15-12-13-11-11-N/A-11-9-12-12-N/A-15-15-N/A-14-N/A-15-13-12) George van Haltren. Had slipped too far at #44; we need more 90s stars. TB+BB/PA .469, TB+BB/Outs .765. Back on ballot again.

15. (N/A-15-N/A-14-13) Rusty Staub. 2716 hits at OPS+124. TB+BB/PA .484, TB+BB/Outs .724. Not quite as good as Beckley, for not quite as long. Back on ballot after short hiatus.

OFF BALLOT

16. (N/A-7-13-11-13-14-14-14-N/A-15-15-15-N/A-14-15-15-15-N/A-
14-N/A-15-15-N/A-15-N/A-14-N/A-15-14) Hack Wilson. Back off ballot after short visit. TB+BB/PA = .588, TB+BB/Outs = .954, OPS+ 144. (he does appear to have known about BB, unlike some others.) Very short career, but quality too good to ignore. OPS+ slightly below Jones, so here he goes.

17. (N/A-11-12-11-11-12-13-14-12-15-15-15-15-N/A-15) Carl Mays Had slipped down too far – back off ballot after 1 year. 3021 innings at 119, 207-126 and 83 OPS+ Others should look at him more closely.

18. (N/A-14-14-N/A) Chuck Klein. Shortish career but very good one. Similar player to Beckwith, beats Hack on career length, but Hack was better. TB+BB/PA .575, TB+BB/Outs .909, but only 2076 hits. OPS+137.

19. Indian Bob Johnson. Very similar career to Klein but infinitesimally less good. TB+BB/PA .569, TB+BB/Outs .890., only 2051 hits. OPS+138

20. (N/A-12) Fred Lynn. Underrated, considerably better than Rice or Hernandez. 1960 hits at 130, but bonus for playing CF. TB+BB/PA .531, TB+BB/Outs .791. Lovely player to watch, and absolutely top-drawer at his best. Should be below rather than above Klein and Johnson, though.

21. Reggie Smith
22. (N/A-14-N/A-15-13-15-N/A-15) Luis Tiant 229-172. 3486 IP at 114. ERA+ a little low, but W/L good. He’s not top tier, but just a little better than Pierce. Big psychic plus for Red Sox affiliation. Looking at Reuschel, a little overplaced so have slipped him down.

23. Rick Reuschel. 214-191, 3548IP@114. Tough to put him far from Tiant, who had a better W/L, but I now realized I was overvaluing Tiant a bit because of Red Sox affiliation.

24. (N/A-15-N/A) Alejandro Oms. New MLE OPS+ of 125 moves him down a bit. Shorter career than Beckley, and not quite as valuable, but he was a darn good player nonetheless.

25. Brian Downing. 2099 hits at 122 plus he caught about 1/3 of his games. TB+BB/PA.487 TB+BB/Outs.741

26. Dave Stieb 176-137 very unimpressive but 122 ERA+ for 2895 innings more so. Might move up a bit in future years.

27. Roger Bresnahan. Moves up on re-examination, but not close enough to see the ballot because even with a catcher bonus his career is short 1252 hits @126, maybe 1500 with catcher bonus, since he played OF in a lot of his catcher seasons. About 2/3 catcher takes him to 140-142 but 1500 @140-142 is close but no cigar, given Klein and Johnson. TB+BB/PA .447, TB+BB/Outs .719. Lombardi and Schang very clearly better.

28. Tony Perez. Up a little, closer to Staub. 2732 hits at 122. TB+BB/PA .502, TB+BB/Outs .731.
29. Bill Madlock.
30. Toby Harrah
31. (15-14-11-12-10-9-6-8-7-7-6-7-6-3-3-3-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-5-4-2-3-2-3-3-
2-3-3-2-2-3-7-5-5-3-2-2-2-4-2-3-3-2-2-4-3-2-2-3-3-4-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-2-2-
3-2-2-3-2-2-4-2-3-2-2-4-2-2-2-4-3-3-3-4-2-2-2-2-N/A) Mickey Welch. Downgraded on consideration of unearned runs. UER were 43.37% of total runs allowed for Mickey, compared to about 40% with all his HOM contemporaries except Galvin (who started earlier, anyway.) Hence his ERA+, his weakness anyway, overstates his value; in spite of 307-210 he was primarily an innings-eater. 4802IP.
32. Ben Taylor.
33. Jim Kaat
34. Orlando Cepeda
35. Norm Cash
36. Jim Rice
37. (N/A-6-5-9-8-9-8-7-10-11-8-9-7-7-6-6-9-9-8-6-6-6-5-4-8-7-9-12-
N/A-14-13-15-N/A) Hugh Duffy.
38. (N/A-12-12-14-N/A) Tony Lazzeri
39. Cesar Cedeno
40. (N/A-14-N/A-15-N/A) Sam Rice
41. Lou Brock
42. Mickey Vernon
43. Thurmon Munson
44. (N/A-13-15-N/A-15-15-N/A) Vic Willis
45. Sal Maglie.
46. (N/A) Burleigh Grimes.
47. (N/A) Heinie Manush
48. (N/A-9-10-10-13-N/A) Mike Tiernan
49. Bob Elliott
50. (N/A) Dick Lundy
51. (N/A-9-12-11-14-13-14-12-11-12-13-11-11-9-9-13-14-12-14-14-N/A) Levi Meyerle.
52. Jack Clark. As good as Reggie Smith but not for as long. 1826 hits@137OPS+, TB+BB .529, TB+BB/Outs .845
53. (12-15-N/A-11-10-12-10-10-9-8-11-12-10-10-8-8-14-15-13-15-15-N/A) Harry Wright.
54. Dave Parker.
55. (N/A-10-9-8-7-6-7-8-5-12-10-10-N/A-10-8-11-11-N/A) Jimmy Ryan
56. Gene Tenace
57. Kiki Cuyler
58. Deacon McGuire
59. Jerry Koosman.
60. Boog Powell
61. Ken Singleton.
62. Bucky Walters 198-160, 3104IP at 115 certainly doesn’t make the ballot, but should be on the consideration set, so here he is. Less than Tiant or Reuschel..
63. Sal Bando.
64. Jim Fregosi.
65. Jack Quinn
66. Tony Mullane
67. Rollie Fingers. Add 1/3 of his saves and he becomes 228-118 or thereabouts, but on my adjustment (add 50% and subtract 5 ERA+ points) he goes to 2550/114, which isn’t enough.
68. Ron Cey
69. Pie Traynor
70. Jim McCormick
71. Dick Redding. My punt is 3200 innings at 114 ERA+ for a record of 207-159, i.e. same quality as Chris but a little shorter. About here looks right – a little below Grimes (longer career) and Maglie (better quality.)
72. Joe Judge
73. Spotswood Poles.
74. Buddy Bell.
75. Larry Doyle
76. Willie Randolph Somewhat better than contemporary Nettles, adjusting for positional difference, so about here. 2210 hits at 104 TB+BB/PA.429 TB+BB/Outs.646
77. Curt Simmons
78. Waite Hoyt.
79. Harry Hooper.
80. Vada Pinson
81. Gil Hodges
82. Jules Thomas.
83. Rico Carty.
84. Wilbur Cooper
85. Bruce Petway.
86. Jack Clements
87. Graig Nettles.
88. Bill Monroe
89. Herb Pennock
90. Chief Bender
91. Ed Konetchy
92. Al Oliver
93. Jesse Tannehill
94. Bobby Veach
95. Chet Lemon.
96. Lave Cross
97. Tommy Leach.
98. Tom York
   5. Daryn Posted: April 30, 2007 at 02:32 PM (#2349891)
I value career over peak, but can be entranced by a great prime. I look at traditional statistics, ERA+, OPS+, Win Shares and Ink. Equally importantly, I read everything on this board and incorporate all that work into my analysis, whether it is RSI, MLEs, PenAdds, simple comparisons of candidates or anything else.

I completed re-arranged my 11-26 in 1998. Stieb made me reconsider Tiant; Randolph made me reconsider Nettles; reconsideration of those guys led me to reconsider Cepeda, Bresnahan, Ryan and Van Haltren. Tiant, Nettles, GVH and Ryan moved down a bit. Bresnahan moved up a bit, Cepeda stayed still. And the only meaningful benefactor of this all in 1998 was Sam Rice, who moved on to the ballot after a long absence.

As I have noted earlier, Stieb is my all-time favourite player, but is not close to my career-oriented definition of a HoMer. He comes in at 46. Randolph comes in at 21.

1. Gary Carter -- well ahead of the backlog. Top ten at his position.

2. Lou Brock, of – I think the post season value and the tremendous speed puts him ahead of the similar long-career peakless Beckley. OCF sums up his case in post 126 of the Brock thread. Number of unelected Hall of Fame or Hall of Merit eligible players with more hits than Brock: Zero. Number of people with more MLB hits than Brock: 21.

3. Jake Beckley, 1b -- ~3000 hits but no peak at all. Crawford (HOMer) and Wheat (HOMer) are two of his three most similars. 3200+ hits adjusted to 162 games. He doesn’t need defensive bonus points to rate this high in my opinion.

4. Bert “Be Home” Blyleven -- best pitcher on the ballot. Bottom quartile of the HoM.

5. Mickey Welch, p – 300 wins, lots of grey ink. RSI data shows those wins are real. Compares fairly well to Keefe. I like his dominating record against HoMers.

6. Burleigh Grimes, p – as a career voter, I have difficulty seeing the vast difference others see between Rixey and Faber (both now elected) and Grimes.

7. Tony Perez – this might be a bit high, but I am comfortable with it. 34th all-time in total bases, no black ink – the weight of his career totals push him above what otherwise looks like a definitional bubble candidate’s resume.

8. Dick Redding, p – probably the 6th best blackball pitcher of all-time (behind, at least, Williams and Paige and likely behind the Fosters and Brown), and that is good enough for me.

9. Addie Joss, p – I don’t like short careers much, but I cannot ignore the best WHIP of all-time, the second best all-time ERA, the 12th best ERA+ and the nice winning percentage. He is barely better than (this is an unordered list) Stieb, Kaat, Hunter, Harder, Warneke, Smith, Bridges, Gomez, Hoyt, Dean, Luque, Pennock, Trucks, Matthews, Quinn, McCormick, Cicotte, Willis, Walters, Bender, Mays, Cooper, Shocker, Mullane (highest WS of any non-candidate by far), Byrd and Mullin.

I don’t think any of the guys below this sentence are deserving.

10. Pete Browning, of – Joe Jackson’s most similar player, and they are pretty close – I have him as about 4/5ths of Jackson, who was 2nd on my ballot when elected. Pete Browning is the benefactor of a decision I made in 1986. I’m a career voter, but I have decided that I’d rather honour a great peak than the 210th best career candidate.

11. Rollie Fingers – he is a real borderline closer for me. If he is still on the ballot in 2006, he might move down.

12. Tommy John – not too far from Grimes, a step above Kaat. No credit for the surgery, but medical pioneers (even the guinea pigs) get my respect.

13. Jim Rice – I like the 77-79 peak. I like the runs created in his ten+ year prime and I like his overall totals. I do adjust raw totals significantly, but I think people are holding Fenway too much against him. It feels like a cop out putting four newbies on the bubble here, but I really like my first 9 candidates and really have no positive HoMie feeling for anyone below Rice. From 1975 to 1986, Rice led the American League in total games played, at-bats, runs scored, hits, homers, RBIs, slugging percentage, total bases, extra-base hits, go-ahead RBIs, multi-hit games, and outfield assists.

14. Dave Parker – I think he is very similar to Rice, but I like Rice’s peak better. Their career counting stats impress me.

15. Sam Rice, of -- 2987 hits speaks to me.

16. Roger Bresnahan
17. Orlando Cepeda
18. Luis Tiant
19. Graig Nettles
20. Pie Traynor
21. Willie Randolph
22. Jim Kaat
23. Luis Aparicio
24. Rusty Staub
25. George Van Haltren
26. Jimmy Ryan
27. Dizzy Dean
28. Tommy Leach
29. Wally Schang
30. Gavvy Cravath
   6. DL from MN Posted: April 30, 2007 at 02:42 PM (#2349894)
1998 Ballot

1) Gary Carter - Top 5 catcher at the time of the election. Too bad Carter, Fisk, Ryan and Blyleven weren't eligible at the same time. That would have been an interesting discussion.
2) Bert Blyleven - More rings than Ryan and just as good a pitcher. No-hitters are apparently the difference between Dominating and Underachieving. Bert - 60 shutouts. Ryan - 61 shutouts. Who cares how many hits they had if they didn't score!
3) Luis Tiant - Best returning pitcher. Good post-season resume.
4) Bus Clarkson - The WS numbers are too high but I like the underlying translations. Take Willard Brown's bat and put him at SS and 3B - that's Bus Clarkson. NgL all-star in 1940 and 1949 with war service in between. Two league MVP level seasons in the Texas League in the mid-50's. That's a long, productive career for an infielder.
5) Bob Johnson - great to see him in the top 10 returnees
6) Norm Cash
7) Willie Randolph - fits well in this collection of well-rounded players with long, productive careers
8) Tommy Bridges - is he a 30s pitcher or a 40s pitcher? (both) Beats the pants off Bucky Walters in PRAA.
9) Graig Nettles - the glove carries the bat this far up the ballot but it was a great glove. I'd have Tommy Leach this high if he hadn't moved to CF.
10) Tony Perez
11) Jake Beckley - almost there but getting dangerously close to pushed off my ballot with the incoming stars from the 80s.
12) Buddy Bell - Brooks Robinson type glove and the worst bat in my top 25
13) Ron Cey - long productive prime
14) Rick Reuschel - more bulk than Stieb, good bat and good glove also.
15) Reggie Smith - in season he didn't play a lot of games but he managed to pile them up over his career

16-20) Rusty Staub, Gavy Cravath, Virgil Trucks, Bob Elliott, Jack Clark
21-25) Tommy John, Ben Taylor, Orlando Cepeda, Dutch Leonard, Dave Bancroft
26-30) Tommy Leach, Bobby Bonds, Thurman Munson, DICK REDDING, Jack Quinn
31-35) Vic Willis, Ken Singleton, Urban Shocker, Johnny Evers, Luke Easter
36-40) ROLLIE FINGERS, Dizzy Trout, Fred Dunlap, Darrell Porter, Hilton Smith
41-45) Lave Cross, Frank Howard, Alejandro Oms, CHARLEY JONES, PETE BROWNING
46-50) Tony Lazzeri, ROGER BRESNAHAN, Jerry Koosman, Jim McCormick, Dick Lundy

52) Dave Stieb - about 2 average seasons short of the ballot
70) Bucky Walters - ugh, a lot of his pitching is actually defense
78) Brian Downing
117) Pedro Guerrero

Carney Lansford - not in consideration set
   7. ronw Posted: April 30, 2007 at 03:00 PM (#2349903)
1998 Ballot –I use a little of WS, WARP, RCAA, OPS+, and traditional stats, as well as reputation. I’m putting bWS/700PA and pWS/300IP, plus my broad All-Star candidates, and MVP/Cy Young candidates for fun.

1. Gary Carter I have him behind Gibson, Berra, Bench, Fisk, Dickey all-time.

2. Bert Blyleven He makes this Hall easily. Congrats, Bert!

3. Dick Redding. If only we could have his teen’s peak clearly defined. I’m going to be disappointed if he never makes it to the HOM.

4. Pete Browning. 26.1 bWS/700 PA, 5 MVP, 8 AS. There were two better hitters through the 1880’s, Brouthers and Connor. There were many better fielders. The Gladiator is getting closer.

5. Roger Bresnahan. 22.7 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 10 AS. Yes, the MVP was as a CF, but still a very valuable player for his time.

6. Hugh Duffy. 20.9 bWS/700PA, 5 MVP, 10 AS. Dominant during the early 1890’s, but that might be Win Shares talking.

7. George Van Haltren. 20.0 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 13 AS. Has gotten an elect-me vote on my ballot before.

8. Tommy Leach. 18.0 bWS/700 PA, 2 MVP, 11 AS. A good player from an underrepresented period.

9. Sal Bando. 19.4 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 10 AS. High late-60’s early 70’s peak.

10. Lou Brock. - 18.7 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 11 AS. 30+ WS seasons in 1967, 1968, and 1971, plus a solid long career looks pretty good to me.

11. Ben Taylor I think Ben was a smidgen better than Jake.

12. Jake Beckley 18.6 bWS/700PA, 0 MVP, 12 AS. Jake’s back in time to be elected.

13. Bill Monroe. The ultimate overlooked candidate.

14. Willie Randolph 15.8 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 10 AS. Durability keeps him from being higher. I see him as better than Fox.

15. Dave Stieb 21.9 pWS/300IP, 4 CY, 8 AS. Very solid, especially for his era.

16. Luis Tiant. 21.5 pWS/300IP, 3 MVP, 9 AS. I think he may be better than electee Billy Pierce.

17. Vic Willis. 22.0 pWS/300IP, 3 CY, 8 AS. I think we are underrating his early career peak.

18. Larry Doyle. 22.5 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 11 AS. I’ve voted him high before.

19. Dan Quisenberry. 45.0 pWS/300IP, 4 CY, 5 AS. Very dominant during his peak.

20. Bobby Bonds. 22.4 bWS/700PA, 4 MVP, 10 AS. Neck and neck with Singleton, Parker, and now Jack Clark.

OTHER NEAR-MISSES/NEWBIES/LAST YEAR TOP 10 with comments

C. Wally Schang. 19.8 bWS/700 PA, 0 MVP, 11 AS.

C. Gene Tenace. 24.1 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 8 AS.

1B. Orlando Cepeda. 22.8 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 9 AS.

1B. Tony Perez. 19.3 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 8 AS.

2B. George Scales. I think we could have missed him.

3B. Pie Traynor. 16.2 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 11 AS.

SS. Herman Long. 13.3 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 9 AS.

SS. Vern Stephens. 18.5 bWS/700PA, 2 MVP, 9 AS.

SS. Dick Lundy. Reexamining his offense seems to classify him as a near miss.

LF. George J. Burns. 20.5 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 11 AS.

LF. Bob Johnson. 21.8 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 12 AS. Just doesn’t have enough peak.

LF. Pedro Guerrero – 25.2 bWS/700PA, 5 MVP, 7 AS. I never realized his peak was this good.

LF. Brian Downing – 19.0 bWS/700PA, 0 MVP, 10 AS

CF. Roy Thomas. 23.0 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 10 AS.

RF. Ken Singleton. 22.2 bWS/700PA, 5 MVP, 8 AS.

RF. Dave Parker – 19.4 bWS/700PA, 4 MVP, 9 AS.

RF. Jack Clark – 24.6 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 10 AS

SP. Urban Shocker. 24.6 pWS/300IP, 3 CY, 7 AS.

SP. Rick Reuschel – 20.3 pWS/300IP, 1 CY, 9 AS.

SP. Wilbur Cooper. 22.2 pWS/300IP, 1 CY, 9 AS.

SP. Eddie Rommel. 24.2 pWS/300IP, 1 CY, 9 AS.

SP. Bucky Walters. 22.6 pWS/300IP, 4 CY, 5 AS. What a peak, but some of it is war years.

SP. Dizzy Dean. 27.6 pWS/300IP, 3 CY, 6 AS.

SP. Mel Harder. 20.5 pWS/300IP, 3 CY, 5 AS.

RP. John Hiller. 34.7 pWS/300IP, 1 CY, 5 AS.

RP. Sparky Lyle. 34.7 pWS/300IP, 0 CY, 4 AS.

RP. Rollie Fingers – 33.0 pWS/300IP, 1 CY, 4 AS. Why is he doing so much better than in the voting than Hiller and Lyle?

RP. Bruce Sutter. 48.2 pWS/300IP, 2 CY, 4 AS.
   8. TomH Posted: April 30, 2007 at 03:29 PM (#2349911)
Realistically, the battle this week is between Willie R and top holdovers Beckley, Walters, Redding, & Browning. While I'm unsettled about exactly where Mr Stieb fits in my picture, I'm settled on the placement of the other guys, so there's little reason to wait on voting. I'd be happy with any of the above being electees, other than the Louisville Slugger.
--

1998 Ballot
Review of Hanrahan’s value system: career value with a fairly high replacement level (slightly below average). Something like RCAP adjusted for defense and league strength, or WARP3 minus 2.5 wins per full year, or WS minus 11 per year adjusted for league quality. Small credit for pitcher “peak”, none for hittters. Some subjective estimating of ability across time and place. I rank the long primes higher than most of us.

(x) indicates where I voted for them last ballot
[y] indicates their consensus rank from last ballot

1- Gary Carter {new}
The best catcher in MLB for many years.
2- Bert Blyleven {new}
Poor choice in teammates.
3- Willie Randolph {new}
Nellie Fox plus many walks and a few extra years, minus durability.
4- Jake Beckley (2) [4]
Great career.
5- John McGraw (3) [26]
Dominant 9 year prime. Provided huge advantage over every other MLB team at third base.
6- Bucky Walters (4) [5]
Faced strong opponents, pitched real well, hit real well too
7- Frank Chance (5) [55]
A great player on great teams. <u>Better hitter than Gavy Cravath AND Charley Jones.</u>
8- Roger Bresnahan (7) [9]
Best catcher of his era. Position flexibility not a minus.
9- Bob Johnson (6) [10]
Very good long prime; clearly better over a dozen year stretch than our other backlog OFers. One very good MinorLg year of credit also.
10- Reggie Smith (9) [20]
Many fans: “Reggie Jackson = winner”
The Truth: “Reggie SMITH = winner”
11- George Van Haltren (8) [15]
Speed and on-base skills made him very valuable in his day. Add in a long career, including pitching, and you get a HoMer.
12- Dick Redding (10) [6]
Comes out better by anecdotes than by MLEs.
13- Rollie Fingers (11) [8]
Post-season credit and inherited runners stranded get him on the ballot.
14- Louis Tiant (12) [27]
Four postseason starts. Averaged 8½ innings, 2.6 ERA, & his team won all 4 games. Take THAT, Bob Gibson and Jack Morris!
15- Bill Monroe (13) [49]
Dominant in his day.

Newbies
Downing – nice, but not in my top 60.
J Clark – Browning, Cravath, Klein, Hack Wilson…..all fine players. Not on my ballot.
Stieb – still considering the dominance vs runs saved criteria. He debuts at #18 for me. I’m tired of saying this and we’re all probably tired of hearing it, but the uncertainty in my ballot keeps growing; Stieb could be #3, and he could be #50.

Returning top 10 disclosures:

Tony Perez – As a career candidate, he padded his numbers with 6 years of very little value. He’s a moderate peak/prime candidate. #21 for me.

Pete Browning – cover up his seasons before age 25, when he was in a very weak AA, and he looks like Babe Herman. Do we want to elect a guy based on dominating a minor league? Van Haltren had as good an offensive career from age 25 on, and was better with the glove.

16 Elliot 17 Reuschel
18 D Stieb 19 Grimes
20 Nettles 21 E Howard
22 D Newcombe 23 B Bonds
24 B Clarkson 25 T Bridges
26 D DiMaggio
27-32 Perez, N Cash, P Traynor, O Cepeda, D Concepcion, U Shocker
33-38 T Leach, P Browning, A Oms, W Schang, D Dean, B Bell
39-43 R Cey, T Munson, L Brock, P Rizzuto, S Bando
44-48 Bancroft, M Welch, L Aparicio, R Maranville, E Lombardi
49-54 L Easter, L Doyle, J Fregosi, C Mays, C Jones, H Duffy

HOM honorees who would not make this year’s ballot, and approximate spot they would be on:
Averill, Medwick, Doerr, Grant, Galvin, Caruthers, Bunning, Sisler, Mendez, Allen, Waddell, Fox 20th–45th
D Moore, E Roush, R Foster, R Faber around #60
H Jennings about #80
   9. rawagman Posted: April 30, 2007 at 03:30 PM (#2349912)
Use a sort of peak-over career number that measures ink by playing time. Combined with rate stats and a glove measurement, I feel this gives me both context for what the player actually achieved versus what the league around him was able to do. I think it also may be time to go a little more into my baseball philosophy, which may help in clarifying my rankings. I don't believe in the single stat theory of baseball, meaning I don't use WS or WARP in my rankings. Essentially, I follow this as I think a large percentage of what contributes to baseball is not counted. Well, no one has ever counted them as statistics as far as I've ever heard. This includes things like manager's prerogative, and actions that would require a historical pbp analysis currently unavailable. I search for what I consider "total ballplayers", guys who can do it all. I believe in positional representation and abhor the thought process that says that relievers were all failed starters and 2B are all failed SS, etc... A team cannot win without a 2B, nor without someone in LF. When I look at a player's career, I try to ask myself how I would feel about him as his manager - would his presence require special tactics to protect him, or is he completely reliable. I hope it can be seen by my rankings that the reliable players generally rise above the ones with clear holes in their games. There are always exceptions, but this is what I have. The stats I look at to get here tend to be traditional and rate, both offensive and defensive. Contemporary opinion also helps. Not as impressed as I was sort of expecting to be, Blyleven and Carter nevertheless take the top two spots. Excellent combinations of quality and quantity. Good careers that lasted much longer than those of their contemporaries at a level that would merit HOM consideration even if they lacked a few seasons each.
Carter wins the top spot as the longevity for a catcher is just that much more impressive than the same for a pitcher. Ken Boyer gets a slight subjective boost over Willie Randolph to gain entry into my PHOM. I had Randolph as just edging him, but I am taking the cautious route as I am confident that Boyer is a PHOM'er and am pretty sure that Randolph is one, too. If I'm right, Randolph is the next backlogger in. If I am wrong, I can drop him down a few slots.
Newbies not in my top 85 - Pedro Guerrero and Brian Downing. Both were really good, but so were the 85 players listed below. They aren't too far from the top 85.

1)Gary Carter - Mike Piazza with less stick, more leather? In the top handful of MLB catchers in the game's history. (PHOM)
2)Bert Blyleven - Funny that my top two ranked pitchers were both known for their wonderful curveballs. Neyer/James guide says Bert's was the 3rd best of all time, while Tommy Bridges comes in at #5. They are both also in the same "pitcher family," according to the NHBJBA. Will the HOF rectify this mistake next year? Let's hope this helps...(PHOM)
3)Hugh Duffy - Super peak, wonderful prime. Amazing bat, super glove. (PHOM)
4)Ben Taylor - Can't find the peak, but a better prime (through the roof), career and glove than Beckley. I think he may be the player most underrated by the electorate. (PHOM)
5)Tommy Bridges - He was really very good. Moves up a few notches as I reexamine his applicable WWII credit and begin a rethink into pitching evaluations. I flipped Bridges and Gomez this week. Not as an affront to Lefty, but after reexamining the cases put up by Dick Redding and Bucky Walters. Of those four, the white guys were all regulars for 10-11 seasons. Bucky and Lefty both had immense peaks, but I think that Lefty's non-peak years hold up better than Bucky's. Also, Lefty does not need any war discount. Dick Redding seems more similar to Walters in that his non-peak was not so impressive. His peak was still enough to leave in him solid backlog country. (I even put him in my PHOM back when I joined the project. Tommy Bridges wins out. He had much greater consistency. He is to pitchers what Bob Johnson was to hitters, but more of a winner. As we see the upcoming dearth of good pitching candidates, I urge everyone to give Tommy Bridges a closer look.(PHOM)
6)Lefty Gomez - looking at him in any single way hurts him. Looking at him kaleidoscopically has him as the best available pitcher in my eyes (PHOM)
7)Charley Jones - he got the shaft - but I am not convinced as to what extent. A little reconsideration bump here. I give partial blacklist credit. I tend to be liberal with credit, but I don't think he deserves full credit. That said, even with the partial credit I am giving him (2 full years), I now see that he was rather durable in season, and he seems to have been a solid defender. (PHOM)
8)Vern Stephens - Will we look at Nomar down the road like we look at Vern now? Great bat, good glove. (PHOM)
9)Gavvy Cravath - No longer the worst fielder in my top 120 candidates (Frank Howard). Probably still the best hitter, though. (PHOM)
10)Bob Johnson - I don't know why it took me this long. Great all-round LF. Very durable. (PHOM)
((10a)Ken Boyer - so close. Fits nicely between Brooks' glove and Rosen's bat.)) (PHOM)
11)Willie Randolph - Long career, solid bat, solid glove. My system has him as very comparable to, but slightly below, Fox. Less durable, less glove. Nothing to be ashamed of though.
12)Bobby Veach - He did it all well. As complete a LF as is available today. (PHOM)
13)Orlando Cepeda (PHOM)
14)Dave Stieb - I wish I liked him more. Still like him plenty enough, though. On pace for a future PHOM member. I still remember where I was when he finally threw his no-hitter.
15)Al Oliver - I was surprised by the similarities between Oliver and Reggie Smith. Smith had the higher OPS+, but I fear it may be a bit hollow. Oliver trumps Reggie (and Wally Berger) in light of his more convincing peak and a glove that scores better than the other two. Career length is nice as well.
   10. sunnyday2 Posted: April 30, 2007 at 03:33 PM (#2349916)
1998 (elect 3)

Carter and Blyleven are an easy 1-2…well, it wasn’t easy deciding what order. Rollie Fingers gets the other elect-me, while Tommy Leach (16 overall) joins them on the PHoM podium, just ahead of Kelley, Singleton and Pesky. Newbies Stieb is #42, Randolph 56, and Guerrero and J. Clark are 64 and 66. Guerrero’s career is like and somewhere between Frank Chance and Chuck Klein, at least with the bat. Bobby Avila is the big gainer from 101 to 51, a little better than Randolph.

Bresnahan is #28, Bob Johnson 36, Beckley 39, Walters 48. The other “required disclosures” are on my ballot.

All of which results from a peak/prime Win Shares orientation, supplemented with OPS+ and ERA+.

1. Gary Carter (new, PHoM 1998)
2. Bert Blyleven (new, PHoM 1998)—doh!

3. Rollie Fingers (2-3-4, PHoM 1991)—there’s no uber-stat that says Fingers is ballot-worthy, but I go back to Chris Cobb’s old test—who do you want in the HoM? And on that simple basis, subjective as it is, I want the #3 reliever of all-time (as of 1995) in mine

4. Pete Browning (3-4-6, PHoM 1961)
5. Charley Jones (6-8-10, PHoM 1921)—a matched pair, both have the numbers even with AA discount

6. Ed Williamson (7-11-12, PHoM 1924)—more peak and more glove than than almost any other IF

7. Addie Joss (4-5-5, PHoM 1967)—not a workhorse, to be sure, but damn effective and not a “small sample” of IP

8. Reggie Smith (5-7-9, PHoM 1988)—cannot quite see how he’s not better than Jim Wynn

9. Larry Doyle (10-10-11, PHoM 1975)—same OPS+ as Ed Roush

10. Orlando Cepeda (8-6-8, PHoM 1987)—pretty interchangeable with F. Howard and Cravath, but the best of the group

11. Dick Redding (13-16-16, PHoM 1971)—next best arm, great peak

12. Phil Rizzuto (9-9-7, PHoM 1995)—306 career WS with war credit

13. Frank Howard (12-12-14, PHoM 1987)—offensive numbers are just too good

14. Don Newcombe (15-19-20, PHoM 1997)
15. Elston Howard (16-15-15, PHoM 1994)—another matched pair of players who lost opportunities due to the vagaries of integration (plus Korea for Newk)

Dropped Out

16. Gavvy Cravath (11-14-21, PHoM 1995)—can’t quite get 16 guys on a 15-man ballot

Close—i.e. right around in/out line, as I think we will elect another 6-8 or so backloggers before we’re done

17. Tommy Leach (17-20-21, PHoM 1998)—after all these years
(17a. Joe Kelley [23a-68a-68a])
18. Ken Singleton (18-31-32)
19. Johnny Pesky (28-29-30)
20. Bus Clarkson (24-44-44)
(20a. Jimmy Sheckard [21a-43a-43a])

21. Alejandro Oms (25-33-34)
(21a. Quincy Trouppe [17a-20a-22])
   11. rawagman Posted: April 30, 2007 at 03:40 PM (#2349921)
The rest....

16)Tony Oliva - another big jump. Career not as short as I thought. A world class hitter.
((16a)Dwight Evans - I honestly held no real memory of him as a player from my childhood, but he gains my respect with a long drawn out prime who (at various times) was an exceptional hitter and fielder. Prefer the peak of Oliva, but I can understand a valid comparison between him and Bob Johnson. Better than Darrell.))
17)Jack Clark - Marvelous hitter who had his uses in the field as well.
18)Jim Rice - This is, more or less, where the in-out line can be found.
19)Wally Berger - super-underrated
20)Dizzy Dean - Diet Sandy Koufax. 0 calories (career), no sugar (prime).
21)Bus Clarkson - I failed to give him credit as a SS earlier. More shades of Quincy. The good doctor's new numbers have been added to my spread sheet, but I have not given him any of a readjustment yet as I wait to see how the electorate takes the info. Solid chance he will make my ballot next year though.
((21a)Darrell Evans - Thanks to Chris Cobb for correcting a flaw in my judgment that was worth 8 spots on this ballot. Being a third basemen for 2 more years would have been worth another 8 spots or so.))
22)Dan Quisenberry - I suppose I've decided that I value peak in a reliever over career totals. Mind you, if the guy has both...well, we'll see what happens with Goose in a few years.
23)Bruce Sutter - Very curious to see if anyone else has him as their highest ranked reliever right now. Shorter career than the others, but when he was at his best, he was the best. That works for me.
24)Ernie Lombardi - defense was below average, but not quite horrible
((24a)Jimmy Wynn - In my reassessment, I was struck by the closeness in several of my areas of focus between Jimmy Wynn and Al Oliver. Each man played around 2/3 of his career in CF, and the other 1/3 elsewhere in the OF. Wynn had a higher career OPS+ (128-121) and more seasons above 120 (8-6). I also give Wynn a slight edge with defensive ability. Ultimately, I have Oliver because those differences are quite small and are made up, IMHO by Oliver's extra ink (small consideration), much greater contemporary acclaim (Oliver- 7 ASG appearances, 3 silver sluggers. Wynn - 3 ASG appearances) and mostly by the 3 extra seasons as a regular. Looking at my other highly regarded CF's, Roush is like Oliver but with greater consistency (10 seasons as a regular with an OPS+ greater than 120, plus a great glove. Duffy had the glove (see my comments on his defense in the Duffy/GVH/Jimmy Ryan thread.) and a higher peak than any of them.))
25)Alejandro Oms - This is a serious jump for him in my rankings (nearly 60 places). I was counting him as a RF only. The hybrid time gets him here, just above Reggie Smith. This could change. Right now I have provisionally given him a career as a 50% CF.
26)Reggie Smith - Another challenge. Uncertainties about his defense keep him from challenging my top half. Moves back up a bit as the clouds pass and I see much to compare between R. Smith and J. Wynn.
27)Dick Redding - One of the toughest for me to accurately place (PHOM)
28)Ron Guidry - I love a dominant pitcher. I don't think it's necessarily correct to view pitchers and hitters in the same light and I value a strong peak (I mean really strong) for pitchers more than for hitters (prefer a steady, all round type there). Similar to, but not quite the equal of, Lefty Gomez, one of my inner circle of best friends.
29)Al Rosen - One more season in prime, and he is top 10
30)Mickey Welch
((30a)Jim Bunning - He had merits, but not enough for balloting. Benefits from my re-examination of ink.))
((30b)Billy Pierce - don't see him as being better than Bridges. My system looks at pitchers differently than position players as I do not account for hitting. That's probably flawed and may need to be reconsidered. But I do not want to dock modern AL pitchers for simply pitching in a league where they do not hit as a rule. And pitcher fielding has become more and more irrelevant over the years.))
31)Sparky Lyle - The biggest surprise of my remodeled reliever system. I don't look at postseason heroics so much, but for those who give plaudits for Fingers' work, check out Sparky. Great peak, very consistent.
32)Ron Cey - I remember his late Topps cards. Lots of very small print on the back. He compares favourably to the other eligible 3Bs. I'd still take Rosen's monster peak over his steady production, but it's close.
33)Norm Cash - Too much in one year - and that was not the best year for an everlasting peak, for a number of reasons.
((33a)Joe Gordon - Neither here nor there. Not the peak, nor the career. War credit obviously helps him, but not enough for me.))
((33b)Dobie Moore - Peak too short, not enough surrounding it. Wreckers play helps, but not enough at present.))
34)Addie Joss - ERA/+ and WHIP are great, but why so little black ink?
((34a)Cupid Childs))
35)Fred Dunlap - Very short career. Very good, too.
36)Rollie Fingers - When he was on, forget about it. Unfortunately, I don't feel that he was on consistently enough to merit anything, much higher than this.
37)Bucky Walters - Very similar to Pierce in overall picture - but built differently.
38)Don Newcombe - big beneficiary of pitcher's fielding analysis.
39)Tommy John - I think I like his overall picture just a smidgen more than Sutton's.
((39a)Don Sutton - Had a peak, but not an exceptional one. His durability pushes him above Tiant.))
40)Luis Tiant - Undoubtedly a wonderful pitcher, but of the type who don't do that well in my system.I wasn't Billy Pierce's biggest fan, but I still liked Billy (and Marichal and Bunning) more than Tiant, so he starts off over here.
41)Tony Perez - I wasn't giving him the extra glove credit he earned through 5 seasons as the Reds' 3B. Still, no peak. As far as 1B go, I have Cepeda up higher because of his very nice peak and his not too short career as a regular. Ben Taylor suffers from a lack of documented stats. The stats there show that he could flat out mash the ball by dead-ball standards. Contemporaries say his glove was the best they had ever seen at 1B. Very apt, in this year of the Hernandez discussion. How much as a scoop worth? I think it's worth alot. I maintain that while a below average defensive 1B can cause little harm, an above average glove at 1B will provide a hefty bonus to the team lucky enough to employ one.
42)Fred Carroll - I give him around 1.5 seasons prime MiL credit. Better than Tenace.
43)Larry Doyle - If only the glove were just a little better.
44)Phil Rizzuto
45)Cecil Travis - A very worthy extra credit case.
46)Jake Beckley - Always very good. No peak, all prime. Defense is overrated. I have read about his arm being so weak (and erratic) that runners were able to take the extra base on him. Not sure how that works at 1B, but worth noting. See Perez comment for more about my 1B thoughts.
47)Jimmy Ryan
48)Fred Lynn - Very similar to Duffy and Roush. Loses a lot of ground due to in-season durability concerns for an otherwise very strong candidate. Should be appealing to Browning/Chance/McGraw supporters who overlook that sort of thing.
((48a)Charlie Keller - Let's start with extra credit questions. I do not give minor league MLE credit for being blocked. Integration, yes. Non-MLB affiliation, yes. Having someone else the franchise liked better at the time above you, no. He had serious durability issues. Are high rate stats easier to maintain when not playing a full schedule. It would seem so. A very talented bat, nevertheless. Another voter asked how would Keller and Kiner have fared if they were essentially traded for one another. I have a nagging doubt in my gut that we wouldn't have discussed Keller that much if he played on a different franchise. A great player when on the field. So was Fred Lynn. Charley Jones played more full seasons without blacklist credit than Keller did with both WWII and minor league credit. As I'll only give Keller the WWII credit and I am giving Jones 2 years of blacklist credit, that gives Charley Jones double the career (a pennant is a pennant). Bob Johnson was every inch the hitter Keller was, but in great obscurity and for much longer. What about Wally Berger? Another hard core masher with a short career (still a fair bit longer than Keller's though - and he played CF (and he played it well!)))
49)Cy Williams
50)Amos Otis
51)Dolf Camilli
52)Fielder Jones - I was missing on him a bit. A very apt first name. Solid bat as well.
53)Pete Browning - A superior masher, but a horrible person to have on your team. No defensive value whatsoever and very very poor durability. Worse than most contemporary catchers.
54)Steve Garvey - Something between Perez and McCormick. Nice size career, defensive value, could hit a bit - nothing overwhelming though.
55)Jim Bottomley - More than just a Frankie Frisch mistake.
56)George Kell
57)Frank McCormick - One of the finest 1B gloves in MLB hitter, and a decent hitter as well.
58)Bob Elliott - A little 3B run here
59)Graig Nettles - Among 3B, I figure he sits nicely here between Elliott and Bando. The better question to ask is if I am underrating 3B in general. I'll have to look into it a bit more later. Nettles is the best defensive 3B on my ballot. I think he was better than Boyer as well.
60)Sal Bando
61)Buddy Bell - Fits in rather nicely in this run of HOVG 3B.
62)Pie Traynor
63)Ed Williamson - I was missing a little something here.
64)Johnny Evers
65)Elston Howard
66)Joe Wood - If he had one more really good year as a pitcher, he'd be balloted
67)Bill Mazeroski
68)Tony Lazerri - Similar value to Maz. Accrued very differently.
69)Tommy Leach - I had missed him until now - I don't see the great love for him, though.
70)Vic Willis - A re-examination of all pitchers to include fielding ability causes an adjustment for Willis and a jump up the consideration set.
71)Thurmon Munson - see below.
72)Roger Bresnahan - Not like the two above or below, he is among those negatively affected by my new adjustments.
73)Walker Cooper - some days, he reminds me of Quincey Trouppe
74)Johnny Pesky
75)Hippo Vaughn
76)George Kell - Had him a bit too high earlier.
77)Cesar Cedeno - Found him to be comparable to Amos Otis and Jimmy Wynn in total value. Slots lower than those two in light of the shape of that value.
78)Vada Pinson - The ink really threw me for a twist. He looks like a good all-round CF, not great. But he amassed hefty ink totals for his generation. This may be a safe ranking.
79)Luis Aparicio - The low OPS+ masks his real effectiveness.
80)Tip O'Neill - The next Canadian.
81)Rocky Colavito
82)Chuck Klein - Drops like a rock. Great hitter Not much else. What separates him from Cravath. Not sure at the moment, really. I guess Cravath has those extra credit intangibles.
83)Denny Lyons
84)John McGraw - Hurt alot by my readjustment - no durability. Tsk, tsk.
85)George Van Haltren - see the comment on Wynn. Van Haltren is the big loser on the CF sweepstakes due to his poor fielding by my own accounts.
86)Rabbit Maranville
   12. Mark Donelson Posted: April 30, 2007 at 06:18 PM (#2350052)
I’m a peak voter, though an amazing prime or really strong career will overwhelm my peak preferences in my (revamped) system. I rely heavily on WS for hitters, with OPS+ and a little WARP, as well as fairly strong fielding adjustments, thrown in as well. For starting pitchers, I prefer PRAA, with some ERA+ adjustments and a little WS (which I don’t love for pitchers) for good measure. For relievers, I’ve adopted a mix of career total PRAA and year-by-year peak PRAA, with an emphasis on the latter, which seems to produce the most sensible results I can come up with.

The new system gives a chunk more weight to best-10 and career totals, which moved a lot of folks around, mostly just off ballot and below, though a few people crept on (Reese, Hernandez) or off (Cicotte). A lot of the HOM-not-pHOM group in particular rose, and since I hadn’t been particularly intending that effect, I feel it’s a sign I’ve made a good adjustment.

pHOM: Carter, Blyleven, Reese

1998 ballot:

1. Gary Carter (pHOM 1998). Just below the top shelf all-time among catchers, a peer of the likes of Campanella and Cochrane, and not much behind Bench and Berra (Gibson, of course, is on another plane). An all-around great player, even if he was kind of annoying at the time (to a Yankee fan, anyway), and a fairly easy #1.

2. Bert Blyleven (pHOM 1998). At a casual glance, he looks like a Tommy John/Jim Kaat type, the good-for-a-really-long-time variety. But he was in fact much better, because all those “good” years were really “excellent” years. So while he was never the best pitcher in baseball for any significant amount of time or anything, he was quite close for a good chunk of his prime. Stellar PRAA totals both for peak seasons and career.

3. Dizzy Dean (pHOM 1967). Sure, it’s a really short peak (which is why he’s not even higher), but he was inarguably dominant during it. It’s just long enough for me.

4. Ed Williamson (pHOM 1931). A lost cause, but still the best of the backlog 3Bs, for my taste. As Sunny always points out, great peak on both offense and defense.

5. Elston Howard (pHOM 1976). The various extenuating circumstances of his career can’t hide the great (if short) peak.

6. Vic Willis (pHOM 1961). Not the most dominant pitcher of his era, perhaps, but he was in the mix with some of the all-time greats. Another excellent peak.

7. Pete Browning (pHOM 1979). An offensive force, if not as much of one as the insane AA numbers make it appear. His non-AA years prove that he wasn’t just a soft-league fluke.

[7a. Pee Wee Reese (pHOM 1998). The combination of my reassessment of shortstops in general and my greater focus on prime and career than I’d had previously shoots him up to the ballot, and into my pHOM. I had really been undervaluing his excellent prime.]

8. Gavvy Cravath (pHOM 1985). Every time I reevaluated outfielders, he would do a little better. Now I can’t believe he hasn’t been here all along. With minor-league credit, he’s got the peak I look for.

9. Luis Tiant (pHOM 1991). No, he wasn't Carlton/Niekro/Perry/Jenkins—too inconsistent, not good enough long enough—but he packed enough brilliance into several years to get my vote.

10. Charley Jones (pHOM 1976). As with Browning, his numbers are covered in the AA mist, but I’m convinced he played at a high enough level long enough for induction—at his best, he was pretty clearly a force.

11. Al Rosen (pHOM ). Another very short peak, but five great years, especially at this position, are enough for me. He does drop several spots after the tweaks to my system.

12. Hugh Duffy (pHOM 1930). Back on the ballot recently after a demotion some years ago. I still like his peak—just not as much as I used to when I was almost giving him elect-me spots.

13. Ken Singleton (pHOM 1997). Another of the “I had no idea he was this good at the time” gang—I think he was the player most felt Rice was back then.

[13a. Keith Hernandez. I wasn’t quite as high as the rest of the electorate was on him, but in the end his extended excellence both offensively and defensively will get him into my pHOM very soon. He gains quite a bit in my reassessment.]

14. John McGraw (pHOM 1996). Another tiny peak, but it seems good enough to outstrip the recent 3B glut to me (and at this position, it’s not like the years outside the peak are useless).

15. Larry Doyle (pHOM 1995). Yes, it’s a pretty short peak, and the weakness of era is also noted—those are the two things that have kept him off my ballot this long. And yes, I know he’s more like a modern 3B than a 2B. But his five-year peak compares favorably with those guys’, too.
   13. Mark Donelson Posted: April 30, 2007 at 06:21 PM (#2350053)
16-20: Redding (1975), [Minoso], Trout (1997), Pesky (1997), Oms (1996), [W. Wells], F. Howard
21-25: [Da. Evans], Cicotte (1972), Bando, Fingers, [Ashburn], Bresnahan (1973), Rizzuto
26-30: [Dw. Evans], Leach, Walters (1968), Nettles, Parker, McCormick
31-35: G. Burns, Stieb, Clarkson, [Boyer], H. Smith, Berger
36-40: Gomez (1987), Sutter, Dunlap, Cepeda, Avila
41-45: Quisenberry, [Doerr], M. Marshall, Elliott, Shocker, P. Guerrero
46-50: Munson, Stephens, Bo. Bonds, Reuschel, F. Jones

Required Explanations and Newbies:


•Beckley. I’m a peak voter. He’s not close.

•Walters. He’s actually in my pHOM, but I’ve soured a bit on him of late—his WS numbers are lovely, but his PRAA numbers don’t match up. I split the difference (leaning harder on the PRAA, admittedly), so he’s at #27.

•Redding. Not quite the peak (as far as we can tell, anyway) of my favorite pitching candidates, but he’s very close. At #16, he’s just off my ballot, and as with a few other guys (Roush, McGraw, Doyle), I don’t know if I can keep him off much longer.

•Fingers. A tough nut to crack, but in the end I feel he doesn’t quite have the peak I’m looking for. All the other factors pump up his standing though, and he hovers right near my eventual in/out line for my pHOM. He’s at #26 right now.

•Bresnahan. Another guy who’s in my pHOM but who has dropped behind some other candidates recently. He’s still my second-favorite among the remaining backlog catchers, though. At #24.

•B. Johnson. I don’t get it. Even with my new greater emphasis on prime/career, he ends up down with guys like Jose Cruz Sr. Not terribly close to my top 50.

•Randolph. Much as I’d love to cast a vote for another of my childhood heroes, I just don’t see him as a viable option. The argument for him seems to revolve around his quality of play compared to that of other 2Bs in his era, and as with Concepcion, that’s just not terribly convincing to me. Otherwise, it takes a lot of extra fielding credit (which I do give, having been convinced that WS undervalues fielding significantly for the most part) to get him up around Marvin Williams, which leaves him just outside my top 50.

•J. Clark. An impressive peak, but it would have to have been even better, given his lack of much else to offer, to get him near the ballot. He’s in the 70s-80s range, with guys like Rocky Colavito.

•Stieb. As a young Yankee fan in the early ‘80s, he was definitely the AL pitcher I most feared and admired; I think there’s little question he was the league’s best starter for that period of time. Very similar overall to Reuschel, actually (which surprises me—I thought Stieb was much better at the time—but that’s more a testament to how underrated Reuschel was). Yet the peak isn’t long or strong enough to really put him over the top. He starts in the running, at #32. At the moment, he and Jim McCormick are the best starters outside my pHOM.

•Guerrero. Like Clark at first glance, but with a slightly better peak as well as the 3B time, however horribly he played it. Still, he comes up a little short as a pure offensive-peak candidate. Dave Parker lite, and that’s only good enough to just get into the top 50; he starts at #45.

•Downing and Lansford aren't in my top 100.
   14. TomH Posted: April 30, 2007 at 06:31 PM (#2350065)
Mark D, got a Q fer ya, I'll post it in the discussion thread
   15. Adam Schafer Posted: April 30, 2007 at 06:42 PM (#2350073)
I'm still not voting for Redding. Indian Bob is currently 44th on my ballot, I like him, I just like others more. Stieb is a long ways down my ballot with Tiant, Kaat, Mullane, & Trout. Spots 10-21 are very tightly grouped. Spots 22-93 are tightly grouped as well.


1. Rollie Fingers - one of the top relievers of all time

2. Charley Jones - dominated, was unfairly blacklisted, then dominated again.

3. Gavy Cravath - he took advantage of a good situation and exploited it in a way that no one else did

4. Bert Blyleven - the very reason I found and joined this project.

5. Gary Carter - No doubt he belongs in both the HOF and the HOM

6. Jim Rice - He and Cepeda are practically tied on my ballot. I'll give it to Rice on a coin flip.

7. Orlando Cepeda - very consistent

8. Bucky Walters - just the right amount of peak to offset the lack of career value I typically require

9. Don Newcombe - give him credit for years missed, and he looks great.

10. Bus Clarkson - I'm willing to believe that I missed him and that he was a shade better than Stephens

11. Bruce Sutter - The only other reliever even remotely close to my ballot right now. Gossage will be higher than him

12. Vern Stephens - power, perennial MVP threat,

13. Elston Howard - big gap between him and Carter.

14. Bobby Veach - I value career more than peak, thus I have Veach over Duffy

15. Chuck Klein - See Cravath

Pete Browning
Jack Quinn
Ernie Lombardi
Lefty Gomez
Johnny Pesky
Roger Bresnahan
Rocky Colavito
Dolf Luque
Hack Wilson
Cecil Travis
Hugh Duffy
Thurman Munson
Jake Beckley
Levi Meyerle
Burleigh Grimes
   16. Daryn Posted: April 30, 2007 at 07:36 PM (#2350124)
I forgot to do required disclosures: Walters and Johnson. Both are in my 40s, which means I like them, but like others better.

Walters has a nice peak and a nice prime, not enough career -- similar to Dave Stieb, actually. He is only marginally behind Tiant, whom I have at 18. All my other pitchers ahead of him have much longer careers or crazy good peaks (Joss and Dean).

I compare Johnson to Bernie Williams -- prototypical Hall of Very Good. No black ink but great prime. A very good player.
   17. favre Posted: April 30, 2007 at 10:05 PM (#2350265)
I consider myself a prime voter, using a combination of OPS+/PA, ERA+/IP, and WS on a season-by-season basis. I also give weight to underrepresented eras and positions.

1. Bert Blyleven
2. Charley Jones
3. Gary Carter

I understand the argument of putting Carter ahead of Blyleven, in that Carter ranks higher among all-time catchers than Blyleven among all-time pitchers. So why have Blyleven ahead? It illustrates how my system works. IMO, Blyleven’s best season is a little better than Carter’s. Carter’s 2nd, 3rd, and 4th best seasons are better than Blyleven’s; their 5th best seasons are comparable, with maybe a slight edge to Carter; after that, Blyleven trounces Carter in seasons ranked six thru thirteen. Overall, Carter has a higher peak, but Blyleven has a longer and more valuable prime.

Jones vs. Carter is more difficult, because we’re comparing an 1870s outfielder to a 1980s catcher. Still, adjusting for era, I have Jones’ best five seasons as superior to Carter’s, with Carter winning seasons 6-10. That does not take account the years Jones lost to blacklisting, however, which I give Jones credit for; I imagine Jones’ seven best seasons topping Carter’s. I mean no slight to Gary, who is a worthy HoM’r deservedly in an elect-me spot. I like Blyleven and Jones more.

4. Jake Beckley
5. Vic Willis

It’s hard to believe Beckley is on the verge of election; I honestly didn’t think he’d make it. Of course, George Van Haltren could talk to us about counting chickens before they’ve hatched…Vic Willis pitched 4000 IP with an ERA+ of 118 (and seasons of 167, 155, and 154). That’s comparable to Faber (4086/119) and Lyons (4161/118), and a whole lot better than Ruffing (4344/109).


6. Dave Stieb
7. Bucky Walters
8. Bob Elliott

Stieb is another kind of player that tend to I like more than the electorate, with six seasons higher than a 130 ERA+. While I recognize that Walters’ 1939-’42 peak was helped by outstanding defenses behind him, he also pitched well during and immediately after the war, when his outstanding defences were either in the service or growing old. Great to see him in the top ten.

It’s hard for me to see the difference between Bob Elliott (287 WS, 124 OPS+, 92.7 WARP1) and Ken Boyer (279 WS, 116 OPS+, 95.0 WARP1; not that I really care about WARP). We’ve only elected seven 3B who debuted before 1950, which seems a little paltry for eighty years of professional baseball.

9. Roger Bresnahan
10. Gavvy Cravath
11. Tommy Leach

Another player I’m happy to see in the top ten. I’m not surprised; with Trouppe elected, Bresnahan is the best catcher out there (Carter notwithstanding). We have a twenty year gap at catcher from 1891-1911. I understand the arguments against filling slots, but in this case I tend to think we have underestimated how difficult the position was at the turn of the 20th Century. Bresnahan was in the top six in OPB seven times from 1903-1914; he did equally well in another five seasons, but didn’t have the PA’s to qualify for the title. That’s an impressive run for a catcher.

Cravath averaged a 161 OPS+ from ages 32-36, and the data from the minor leagues suggests that was not a fluke. Tommy Leach, an old favourite of mine, makes it back onto the ballot after a fifteen-year-or-so absence. 324 career WS, great defence at two key positions, and he could hit a little.

12. Ken Singleton
13. Larry Doyle

We don’t have a lot of 1970s OFr’s: only Stargell, Yaz, Reggie, and Dewey so far. I did compare Singelton with Reggie Smith closely this election. In my system, which compares season to season, Smith’s durability issues in-season hurt him. Larry Doyle has been in my top twenty-five or so for decades; there’s just not a lot of second basemen out there with a career 126 OPS+.

14. Willie Randolph
15. Frank Howard

Willie Randolph is another player with a long prime; on-base quite a bit, good enough with the glove to provide lots of defensive value. Frank Howard was just a monster from ’68-70.


16-20: Eddie Cicotte, Frank Howard, Wally Schang, Tony Perez, Rusty Staub.

Not in my top fifteen:

Pete Browning Brent/Daryn’s AA projections show he wasn’t a historic hitter, and he also had some playing time issues. Basically confirms what I’ve believed for a while: excellent hitter, mediocre defence, injury problems, same resume’ as a number of other OFers.

Rollie Fingers I’m an ERA+/Win Shares guy, and Fingers does not look good using either system.

Dick Redding. Has been compared to Orel Hershiser. Seems apt: had a couple of big years which gives him an argument, but not quite enough for induction.

Bob Johnson Not really distinguishable from other OF’rs with around 300 career WS. We've already elected plenty of players from his era.
   18. favre Posted: April 30, 2007 at 10:08 PM (#2350269)
Oops--I have Howard listed at both #15 and #17; he is on my ballot at # 15.
   19. OCF Posted: April 30, 2007 at 11:15 PM (#2350339)
1998 Ballot.

1. Bert Blyleven (new) RA+ equivalent 322-230. As good as - maybe even better than - Gaylord Perry. An easy #1 for me.
2. Gary Carter (new) Not inner circle, but by the standards of the catchers we've already elected, clearly a HoMer.
3. Larry Doyle (5, 4, 2, 1, 1) Big hitter in low scoring times - nearly as good a hitter as the backlog outfielders. Mediocre defense, but occupied the position for a long time. Some other voters' comments have portrayed him as not mediocre, but historically bad, a "statue." If so, why did the defense-obsessed writers vote him a Chalmers award? I tend to doubt that John McGraw would have put up with that bad a defensive liability.
4. George Van Haltren (8, 7, 6, 4, 2) He did accomplish quite a bit in his career. Has now been on my ballot for 86 years. Sam Thompson has what could have been his spot in the HoM.
5. Jack Clark (new) The biggest surprise for me this year. His offense ranks with Frank Howard's and when he was younger, he played a decent RF. Biggest flaw is injuries and time missed during seasons.
6. Dave Stieb (new) RA+ Pythpat 190-131 with a 4-year peak that was an equivalent 81-41. Edges ahead of Bridges and Walters because the 80's were a harder decade to dominate.
7. Tommy Bridges (9, 8, 7, 5, 3) RA+ PythPat 190-124. Walters had a higher peak, but Bridges was a terrific pitcher.
8. Bucky Walters (10, 9, 8, 6, 4) Offense-adjusted RA+ PythPat 197-148. More peak than Bridges, but the one thing RA+ doesn't account for directly is defensive support and he seems to have had plenty of that - so I knocked him down a couple of notches.
9. Orlando Cepeda (11, 10, 9, 7, 5) The Baby Bull. Cha-Cha. There are plenty of places to find fault: indifference to defense, selfishness about his role with the Giants, injury history, early decline. But the early decline sticks out because the start was so good. And his NL was a strong league.
10. Norm Cash (12, 11, 10, 8, 6) One year does not make a peak (or a prime). But oh, what a year. Actually, he's on my ballot as a career candidate, although missing games in each year whittles away at his career value.
11. Frank Howard (13, 12, 11, 9, 8) Instead of talking about what he might have accomplished in another time and place, I'll talk about the value of what he did do in run-scarce circumstances.
12. Willie Randolph (new) This is much higher than I would have placed Fox - but then Randolph was better than Fox. Basically, I like the OBP.
13. Lou Brock (14, 13, 12, 10, 9) Low-peak, career-value candidate, severely underrated by OPS+, but of little defensive value.
14. Sal Bando (15, 14, 13, 11, 10) A hair ahead of Bob Elliott.
15. Bob Elliott (16, 15, 14, 12, 11) Roughly the equivalent of Dixie Walker as a hitter, plus 1300+ games of pretty good 3B.
16. Tony Perez (17, 16, 15, 13, 12) A little less a hitter (mostly that's a about prime-shoulder seasons) than Staub, did play a fair amount of 3B.
17. Rusty Staub (18, 17, 16, 14, 13) Reggie Smith plus some hang-around time. Not Frank Howard's peak, but some peak anyway.
18. Luis Tiant (19, 18, 17, 15, 14) RA+ equivalent 224-164. A 60's pitcher who re-invented himself as a 70's pitcher. A major participant in the 1968 "year of the pitcher" festivities. But it's the 70's career that has more value.
19. Reggie Smith (20, 19, 18, 16, 15) A very, very good player who always seemed to wind up on winning teams.
20. Jake Beckley (21, 20, 19, 17, 16) Not much peak, long career. Was he really better than Vernon? Maybe defense, maybe a position-scarcity argument. Offensively, I don't see it.
21. Tommy John (--, 20, 18, 17) RA+ Pythpat record of 281-244 with no big years. Compare to Tiant: the difference of 57-80 is pretty much a wash, and Tiant had some big years.
22. Darrell Porter (22, 21, 21, 19, 18) Better than Munson. Nearly as good a hitter, in context, as Lombardi.
23. Graig Nettles (-, 22, 22, 20, 19) Interesting candidate, but not enough of a hitter for me to put him with Bando and Elliott.
24. Ken Singleton (23, 23, 23, 21, 20) A much better candidate than contemporary opinion would have made him. Earl Weaver's kind of hitter. But we can't let our enthusiasm for another unrecognized ballplayer overcome the fact that he's just another "bat," another corner outfielder of limited defensive value. Compared to Reggie Smith, he's got the better peak but less career - and I am more of a career voter. So he goes behind Smith. And as for that peak: I like Hondo's better.
25. Ron Cey (24, 25, 24, 22, 21) The best of that Dodger infield, although Lopes was also awfully good. Doesn't match Elliot and Bando as a hitter, so I'll slot him in behind them.
26. Rollie Fingers (25, 25, 25, 23, 22) I'll do a more extensive reevaluation when we get to Gossage.
27. Gene Tenace (26, 26, 26, 24, 23) Only half a catcher, but a better hitter than our other half-catchers (Bresnahan, Schang)
28. Dick Redding (27, 27, 27, 25, 24)
25. Luis Aparicio (28, 28, 28, 26, 25) More games at SS than anyone else, 500 SB with a good percentage.
29. Bobby Bonds (29, 29, 29, 27, 26) I like leadoff hitters, so I want to vote for him. But it's just not quite enough career. Enough peak could overcome that objection, but he doesn't have Jimmy Wynn's peak.
30. Hugh Duffy (30, 30, 30, 28, 27) I did vote for him for nearly 50 years, but we've just had too many good candidates since then.
31. Rick Reuschel (---, 29, 28) Not that different from Koosman in my system so far, but I haven't really corrected for defensive support.

All of the top-tenners belong to our long-term backlog. Yes, I know the arguments; no, I'm not accidentally overlooking anyone. One particular case: I supported Stovey over Browning long ago because he seemed much better at scoring runs; Browning was nothing special there.

Pedro Guerrero: Career too short, never really had a position he belonged at, but the man could hit.

Jim Gantner: What other merely average-to-good players have lasted that long with the same team?
   20. Rusty Priske Posted: May 01, 2007 at 12:27 PM (#2350832)
PHoM: Bert Blyleven, Gary Carter, Jack Clark


After much agonizing, I had to drop Perez those important two spots. :)

1. Bert Blyleven (new)

The biggest current mistake by the HoF voters.

2. Gary Carter (new)

They got this one right.

3. Tony Perez (1,1,3)

I saw the light and put him below the other two guys, but regardless, to me there are three obvious HoMers Top 3 types ont his ballot. I realize that he won't get in thsi time. Hopefully some other deserving player does. Beckley would be good.

4. George Van Haltren (6,4,7)

He has been passed voer so far. I imagine he will be again and again and again...

5. Jake Beckley (5,2,5)

Beckley, otoh, should get in soon.

6. Rusty Staub (3,3,6)

Now we are in to guys who I like but the majority doesn't...at least enough.

7. Mickey Welch (12,9,13)

8. Tommy Leach (9,7,9)

9. Lou Brock (10,11,10)

10. Graig Nettles (11,10,14)

11. Hugh Duffy (13,14,x)

12. Jack Clark (new)

13. Ken Singleton (x,x,x)

back on the ballot!

14. Willie Randolph (new)

I don't like him as much as some, but he is ballot-worthy.

15. Reggie Smith (14,15,x)

16-20. Cepeda, Bonds, Cash, Willis, Redding
21-25. Browning, Johnson, Downing, Doyle, Streeter
26-30. Parker, S.Rice, F.Howard, McCormick, Strong
   21. yest Posted: May 01, 2007 at 08:27 PM (#2351200)
1998 ballot
Carter , Blyleven, and George H. Burns make my PHOM this year


1 Gary Carter number 1 despite playing for the mets (makes my personal HoM this year)
2. Pie Traynor most 3B putouts 7 times (made my personal HoM in 1942)
3. Chuck Klein 4 hr titles 1 triple crown (made my personal HoM in 1951)
4. Tony Oliva most hits 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1983)
5. Mickey Welch please see his thread (made my personal HoM all the way back in 1898)
6. Sam Rice imagine if he would have started earlier (made my personal HoM in 1940)
7. Pete Browning 13th in career batting avg. (made my personal HoM in 1906)
8. Jake Beckley 30th in hits (made my personal HoM in 1915)
9. Hack Wilson 4 hr titles RBI season record (made my personal HoM in 1940)
10. Hugh Duffy had 100 runs or RBIs every full year he played (made my personal HoM in 1908)
11. Addie Joss 2nd in era (made my personal HoM in 1918)
12. George Kell very good hitter and fielder at important and under elected position (made my personal HoM in 1963)
13. Bill Madlock 4 batting tittles (made my personal HoM in 1984)
14. Al Oliver 1 batting title (made my personal HoM in 1991)
15. Jim Rice hit 300 7 times (made my personal HoM in 1995)
16. Rollie Fingers best HoF speech ever (made my personal HoM in 1991)
17. Harvey Kuenn led AL shortstops in putouts twice assists once (made my personal HoM in 1972)
18. Bert Blyleven so underrated he’s now over rated (makes my personal HoM this year)
19. Heinie Manush 330 batting avg. (made my personal HoM in 1957)
20. Hilton Smith see his thread (made my personal HoM in 1964)
21. Ray Schalk the best catcher ever (made my personal HoM in 1938)
22. George Van Haltren 31st in runs (made my personal HoM in 1925)
23. Jimmy Ryan 30th in runs (made my personal HoM in 1926)
24. Luis Aparicio being a better offensive player then Rabbit puts him here (made my personal HoM in 1979)
25. Jake Daubert 29th in triples (made my personal HoM in 1930)
26. Bobby Veach most doubles twice (made my personal HoM in 1931)
27. Bill Mazeroski 2nd greatest (fielding) 2nd baseman (McPhee‘s 1) ever (made my personal HoM in 1984)
28. Roy Thomas most times on base 6 times (made my personal HoM in 1984)
29. Dave Parker would be higher with out his extra credit (made my personal HoM in 1997)
30. Gavvy Cravath most active HRs 1918, 1919 and 1920 (made my personal HoM in 1928)
31. Lou Brock like the steals more then most (made my personal HoM in 1984)
32. Kiki Cuyler 2299 hits (made my personal HoM in 1968)
33. Lloyd Waner had the most OF putouts 4 times, finished 2nd once and finished 3rd twice (made my personal HoM in 1968)
34. Ginger Beaumont 1902 batting title (made my personal HoM in 1932)
35. John McGraw 3rd in on base percentage (made my personal HoM in 1930)
36. Steve Garvey 200 hits 6 times (made my personal HoM in 1984)
37. Jim Bottomley 2313 hits (made my personal HoM in 1968)
38. Levi Meyerle best rate season ever (made my personal HoM in 1975)
39. Eddie Yost most walks 6 times most times on base 3 times (made my personal HoM in 1987)
40. Rabbit Maranville best shortstop before Ozzie moves down do to reading accounts on how his drinking hurt his team more then the numbers show(made my personal HoM in 1939)
41. George J. Burns most walks 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1932)
42. Orlando Cepada 297 batting avg 379 HRs (made my personal HoM in 1987)
43. Stuffy McInnis led in fielding% 6 times (made my personal HoM in 1987)
44. Deacon Phillippe best walks/9 IP in the 20th centaury (made my personal HoM in 1988)
45. Babe Adams led in WHIP 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1992)
46. Buddy Myer 1935 batting title (made my personal HoM in 1996)
47. Cecil Cooper most rbi twice (made my personal HoM in 1997)
48. George H. Burns most hits twice gets PCL credit (makes my personal HoM this year)

explanation for players not on my ballot
Dick Redding barring new evidence not one will make my ballot (the HoF vote has absolutely no bearing on my vote )
Charley Jones no black list points
Tony Perez needs more of a peak to meet with his career
Bucky Walters would have been in my pHoM with out WWII adjustments as he is he’s still close to it
Roger Bresnahan played to much outfield
Bob Johnson with out WWII adjustments is borderline with them he’s quite a bit lower
   22. andrew siegel Posted: May 01, 2007 at 09:02 PM (#2351226)
(1) Gary Carter (new)--Somewhere around the 6th best catcher of All-Time, though the knot from 4-12 is very tight. Top half of the HoM.

(2) Bery Blyleven (new)--Somewhere around the mid-point of the HoM.

(3) Bridges (2nd)--Like Cash, Schang, Ted Lyons, Roush, etc., he's underrated by our tendency to focus on seasonal numbers. Put up lots of quality and sufficient quantity. I have him with 8 truly excellent seasons--no one outside the HoM has more. I never thought he'd get this high on the ballot, but I see no reason to jump him just b/c/ he's now in an elect-me spot.

(4) Oms (3rd)--The contemporaries thought he was an All-Time great and the numbers (as thin as they are) back them up. Moved way up as others slide down the ballot. His case has no holes.

(5) Cash (4th)--Similar in career length, offensive value, and defensive value to Wynn but a smidge higher on all three according to WARP and more consistent to boot. Dan's study costs him a few points based on the ease of dominance in the 1960s AL, but others droped too. A lot like Hernandez, only in a substantially weaker league.

(6) Reggie Smith (5th)--Very similar on all dimensions to Cash and Wynn; similar offensively to Roush and Johnson. A bit more consistent than Wynn.

(7) Leach (6th)--If you subtract Brooks Robinson's final useless seasons and project Leach's years out to 162 games, Robinson and Leach have almost identical EQA's and defensive rates in a very similar number of games. The only difference is that half of Leach's games were in CF rather than 3B. Hard to imagine that keeping him out of the HoM. A lot like Darrell Evans, only with contemporary reports that match his stellar defensive numbers.

(8) Bob Johnson (7th)--Doesn't jump out at you, but no major knocks on his resume--highest OWP of any long-career OF still on the board, over 300 WS with proper minor leaue credit even playing for bad teams, great consistency, excellent fielder for his position. Since his era and position are already well-represented and he doesn't have a great peak, he losses the most with Dan's numbers, but I still find him worthy.

(9) Dave Stieb (new)--Best pitcher in the game briefly; lots of quality in a relatively few number of innings. As you can tell by my rankings of Bridges and Shocker, I like this profile better than most.

(10) Urban Shocker (11th)--Joe makes his case well. He didn't pitch a ton of innings or a ton of years but--when you combine durability and quality and adjust for defense--he was one of the best handful of pitchers in the game for a decade. A lot like Tommy Bridges or Dave Stieb.

(11) Jack Beckley (9th)--Like Rusty Staub or Tony Perez, only with greater positional dominance. A truly borderline HoMer, but a deserving one.

(12) Elliot (8th)--My tools aren't good enough to distinguish between him and Boyer. Nettles, Bell, Bando, and Cey are also similar, but the glut of 3B in the 1970's suggests that something was different then than when Elliot (and perhaps Boyer) were playing. Others jump him this week.

(13) Rollie Fingers (13th)--When you make adjustments for leverage and postseason performance he is right in the mix with Shocker.

(14) Ben Taylor (12th)--I missed the boat on him. I had him comped to Konetchy and, therefore, outside the top 50. But (1) I had Konetchy too low and (2) his offense was one rung better than Ed's. As a result, he is much closer to Hernandez or Cash. Might deserve to tank higher.

(15) Cravath (10th)--I've got no problem giving minor league credit and that brings him on ballot. Looking at the total package he offered, however, my personal jury is still out. A great hitter, but so were Jones, Browning, Fournier, Tiernan, Frank Howard, etc. He feels like one of those. Career length comparison to those others gets him on the ballot, but it is tenuous. I am troubled by giving him more credit for his minor league seasons than Chance gets for his parttime major league seasons (i.e, the Elston Howard problem).


When you adjust Browning for league quality, you get a guy with a mid 140's OPS+ and roughly 9-plus years of playing time with limited defensive value. I have him somewhere around 50th.

Dick Redding is in the category of Negroe Leaguers whose numbers don't back up their reputations. He doesn't crack my top 50.

Bucky Walters is ok, but his defensive help was enormous. He too is around 50.

Bresnahan is the real deal. I've always had him a few spots behind Chance and right behind Schang. I still do. Those guys are 17th, 20th, and 21st respectively.

I like Randolph a little better than Fox. He is number 37.

Jack Clark is better than I thought. He's number 47.
   23. Juan V Posted: May 01, 2007 at 10:43 PM (#2351305)
31. Lou Brock like the steals more then most (made my personal HoM in 1984)


You must really like those steals, since you PHoMed him a year before he became eligible ;-)
   24. Sean Gilman Posted: May 01, 2007 at 11:19 PM (#2351354)
Took a second look at some pitchers this year, and ended up moving them around. Basically just made Win Shares, which I trust a lot less than WARP when it comes to pitching, less important in my rankings.

1998

1. Gary Carter (-)--He’s good.

2. Bert Blyleven (-)--Him too. Very tough call between 1 and 2, Carter’s peak edges him ahead.

3. Pete Browning (1)--If he played in the PCL in the 00s or the Negro Leagues in the 30s, would he be a HOMer by now? Same as with the Negro Leaguers, the league translations inordinately underrate his peak. Besides, it isn’t like the AA wasn’t a major league. A better gladiator than Russell Crowe. (1927)

4. Charley Jones (2)--Jones, Shoeless Joe Jackson and Browning look pretty interchangeable to me. (1929)

5. Tommy Leach (3)--May be the most underrated candidate out there. Great career value, fine peak and played two premium defensive positions. (1942)

6. John McGraw (5)--Big jump up for McGraw, as I schedule adjust his WARP1 values and his peak moves into line with what I actually though it was, instead of being even with Nellie Fox’s. He’s got the best non-Browning peak on the ballot, but still a shortage of career value. (1997)

(Bob Lemon)

7. Larry Doyle (6)--Another underrated infielder. Sisler-esque peak , according to win shares.(1945)

8. Hugh Duffy (7)--High peak, medium length career, the best of a massive group of borderline OF candidates. (1964)

9. George Van Haltren (8)--Almost a HOMer not too long ago, will he make it eventually? (1966)

10. Dave Stieb (-)--Great prime but a little short on the career end leaves him in the bottom half of the ballot. But he’s a clear HOMer to me.

11. Alejandro Oms (10)--Another good, yet underrated, all-around outfielder. (1986)

12. Ken Singleton (11)--Ridiculously comparable to Wynn. (1991)

13. Bobby Bonds (12)--Very close to Wynn and the fourth in my series of underrated outfielders. (1995)

(Red Ruffing)

14. Frank Howard (14)--His Win Shares peak advantage over Fox gets him on the ballot, though WARP sees their peaks as very similar. (1996)

(Darrell Evans)
(Billy Pierce)
(Nellie Fox)
(Quincey Trouppe)

15. Luis Tiant (76)--Big jump up thanks to another look at the pitchers. Very nice peak/prime combination, a lot like the all-around outfielders just above him.

16. Graig Nettles (16)
17. Willie Randolph (-)
18. Rollie Fingers (17)
19. Dave Parker (18)
20. Sal Bando (19)
21. Wally Berger (21)
22. Carl Mays (9)
23. Mike Tiernan (22)
24. Cesar Cedeno (23)
25. George Foster (24)
26. Dick Redding (25)
27. Dave Concepcion (26)
28. Ed Williamson (27)
(Dobie Moore)
29. Tony Perez (28)
30. Rusty Staub (29)
31. Vada Pinson (30)
32. Dan Quisenberry (31)
33. Ron Cey (32)
34. Norm Cash (33)
35. Rick Reuschel (87)
36. Bruce Sutter (34)
37. Bobby Murcer (35)
38. Orlando Cepeda (36)
(Red Faber)
39. Buddy Bell (37)
40. Bucky Walters (20)
41. Vern Stephens (38)
42. Roger Bresnahan (39)
43. Lou Brock (40)
45. Dave Bancroft (41)
46. Jimmy Ryan (42)
47. Rabbit Maranville (43)
48. Tony Lazzeri (44)
49. Bob Elliott (45)
50. Phil Rizzuto (46)
   25. OCF Posted: May 02, 2007 at 05:52 AM (#2351957)
Well, that's it for having a run of years in which, because the rest of us can't agree on anything, yest comes back into the edge of the pack on consensus. No, this year yest is going for low outlier again. A big chunk of that score will be that he's not voting for Blyleven. The funny thing about that is that, as these things go, yest likes Blyleven - just off his ballot and in his PHOM. It's just that yest has built up such a huge supply of his own teddy bears - the Madlocks and Kells and Hack Wilsons who have little or no support from the rest of us - that it's hard for him to fit anyone in.
   26. rawagman Posted: May 02, 2007 at 07:35 AM (#2351980)
yest - a small question - if you knocked Maranville for drinking, did you also look into the drinking problems of Browning and Beckley? And probably most other professional athletes between 1860-1960?
I mention those two specifically, because I have also read accounts of how their specific drunkeness harmed their teams.
   27. rawagman Posted: May 02, 2007 at 07:38 AM (#2351983)
not to mention Hack Wilson - one of the most notorious drunks in the history of the game.
   28. DL from MN Posted: May 02, 2007 at 01:43 PM (#2352042)
If we elect Browning, Beckley and Fingers it is a real possibility that yest submits a ballot in the 2000s that has players nobody else is voting for all the way through the top 15. Mickey Welch would be the only guy garnerning some support and that support is waning.
   29. Juan V Posted: May 02, 2007 at 05:10 PM (#2352228)
1998 ballot. Things are starting to accumulate for me, now that I've started work on my thesis, and the GRE coming up too.

Review of my methodology: I use two systems, in one I use OPS+, with adjustments for stolen bases and shape of OPS, compared to a positional baseline. For pitchers, this is RA+, with adjustments for high IP seasons and relief pitching. In the other, I simply use the uberstats, mostly WARP but I'm integrating Win Shares into the analysis. For both systems, I use a JAWS-like formula to weigh peak and career.

1-BERT BLYLEVEN: I'll circle Bert on my ballot. I somewhat agree that he's so underrated, he's now overrated by his supporters, but he still fits. He certaintly is more of a career guy than a peak guy, so one can see the John/Kaat comparisions, but he's MUCH better than them.

2-GARY CARTER: Originally, I expected him to end up #1. However, I noted his sub-50% SB sucess rate, over a "not small" sample of attempts, and docked him a bit for it. Still, the order of him and Bert is pretty much a matter of personal taste.

3-BUS CLARKSON: New MLEs incorporated. Glad to see the debate on him re-sparked, as we may be missing a gem here. In any case, he has well over 300 MLEed Win Shares, and an OPS+ around 120 from a SS/3B. The better part of his career, including his SS peak, took place before the Negro League scene got outta whack (although he was still well traveled). He was one of the reasons I decided to establish my new offense system, and under it he truly shines. I am discounting his 1940 a bit.

4-GAVVY CRAVATH: His peak is almost as high as Keller's, and with MLE credit he has a much longer career.

5-LUIS TIANT: The 114 ERA+ over a little less than 3500 innings is unimpressive, specially considering his contemporaries, but he really shined with unearned runs (roughly 8.5% of total runs allowed, compared to about 11.5% for his era). General adjustment of relative pitcher/position player ranking moves him up.

6-WILLIE RANDOLPH: "Better than Fox" isn't going to do much for me, but how about "much, much better than Fox"?. OPS+ actually over 100, and he was a positive basestealer as well. Not much in the way of peak, but a really strong prime.

7-ROGER BRESNAHAN: His case has a good bit of context, as it depends on how you account for the brutal conditions for catchers of his time. I like the OBP-heavy production.

8-VIC WILLIS: Almost 4000 innings at a 118 ERA+ put him pretty close to the average Hall of Fame starter (probably the average Hall of Meriter is a bit better). Unearned runs are about average for his era, so they don't change his standing too much.

9-ALEJANDRO OMS: While the hitting value isn't as much as I once thought, there's too many Win Shares here to ignore. They give him a long career, with a considerable peak as well.

10-TONY LAZZERI: Where's the support for a 120 OPS+ second baseman? Was the defense really that bad (and why it doesn't show up on the uberstats, which put him clearly north of Larry Doyle territory)? Is my estimation of the baseline for 1930s second basemen that far off?

11-DAVID CONCEPCIÓN: Averagish-bat, All-Time defense, and a really low baseline to compare him against. Clearly, my favorite among all the middle infielders with a similar profile. I believe there is a "real" reason why shortstops of his time were so bad with the bat, giving him real value.

12-JAKE BECKLEY: Pass.

13-BEN TAYLOR: Hernandez's eligibility and election made me take another look at him, and I was impressed. Will Clark is possibly a good comp, but he had a longer career and a lower baseline for comparision.

14-TONY PEREZ: The peak as a third baseman makes him electable to my eyes. It isn't that impressive, but it is good enough to be "carried" by his career.

15-BOB JOHNSON: Having a hard time separating him from Charley Jones, #16. In a glut of borderline-or-just-below outfielders, he has the strongest career value, thanks to consistent 130 or higher OPS+es
   30. Juan V Posted: May 02, 2007 at 05:37 PM (#2352247)
And the other guys

16-Charley Jones
17-ROLLIE FINGERS: Always close, but never in the ballot. In this area, all I can say is I like him, but there are at least 15 other guys I like better.
18-Toby Harrah
19-Bert Campaneris
20-Marvin Williams
21-George Scales
22-John McGraw
23-Jimmy Ryan
24-DAVE STIEB: Sort of like a pitching Keller. Nice peak, wish he had a bit more career. I also expected the uberstats to like him more, for some reason. Even though he isn't on my ballot, he still looks somewhat electable.
25-Bobby Avila
26-Bob Elliott
27-Vern Stephens
28-Thurman Munson
29-Mickey Welch
30-Bobby Bonds
31-Cesar Cedeño
32-Rusty Staub
33-PETE BROWNING: When you think about it, he's equivalent to a poor-fielding, short career corner outfielder with a 140ish OPS+. His peak is still good, but he needs more.
34-Dave Bancroft
35-Ken Singleton
36-Reggie Smith
37-Lefty Gomez
38-Ron Cey
39-Darrell Porter
40-CANNONBALL DICK REDDING: We know relatively little about him, and what we know isn't enough to suggest a HOMer by itself. His actual performance could belong 30 places higher in this ballot, or 30 places lower.
41-Dick Lundy
42-Dick Bartell
43-Ned Williamson
44-Ernie Lombardi
45-Jim Fregosi
46-Norm Cash
47-Larry Doyle
48-Chuck Klein
49-George Van Haltren
50-Wally Schang
51-Frank Howard
52-Graig Nettles
53-Davey Lopes
54-Jim Rice
55-Sal Bando
56-Rick Reuschel
57-Gene Tenace
58-Luis Aparicio
59-Buddy Bell
60-Orlando Cepdeda
61-Fred Lynn
62-JACK CLARK: Higher than I expected. A lot of time in the outfield, even starting as a CF, which did not compute with my memory of him as the Red Sox's rigid DH. Still, somewhat short of HOMable
63-Hugh Duffy
64-Elston Howard
65-Ron Guidry
66-Tommy Leach
67-Tommy John
68-Tommy Bridges (here ends the Tommy section of my ballot)
69-BUCKY WALTERS: I kept looking for a reason why he managed to enter the top 10, and so far it escapes me. He had a couple of very good seasons, but for the rest of his career he had serious unearned run problems. His career wasn't very long, his peak ended up being quite short as well, he had significant help from his defenses...
70-Phil Rizzuto
71-Carl Mays
72-Bruce Sutter
73-Artie Wilson
74-Dan Quisenberry
75-Pie Traynor
76-Dave Parker
77-Dizzy Dean
78-Cheo Cruz
79-PEDRO GUERRERO: Sneaking here at the bottom of the consideration set. He could hit at his prime, but he has nothing else.
80-Chet Lemon
81-Gil Hodges
82-Johnny Pesky
83-Wilbur Cooper
84-Wilbur Wood
85-Burleigh Grimes
86-Jim Kaat
87-Chris Speier
88-Lou Brock
   31. DL from MN Posted: May 02, 2007 at 05:49 PM (#2352260)
"9-ALEJANDRO OMS: While the hitting value isn't as much as I once thought, there's too many Win Shares here to ignore. They give him a long career, with a considerable peak as well."

I don't trust the win shares translations. The OPS+ translations say 125 OPS+ in 9000 PAs which pales in comparison to Bob Johnson (138 OPS+ in 8000PAs) and then you add Bob the PCL credit he probably deserves (975 PAs of 129 OPS+). If you're comparing against someone like Oms who is an ALL credit case I'd argue that Johnson definitely deserves the same benefit of the doubt.
   32. Chris Cobb Posted: May 02, 2007 at 06:29 PM (#2352318)
It's been well established that Bob Johnson is significantly underrated by win shares because of his play on teams that were (1) bad and (2) consistently underperformed their Pythagorean projections.

Because Johnson is underrated, he is not a reliable benchmark for assessing the reasonableness of the win share estimates derived from MLEs. What I have done, when checking the WS estimates produced by Eric's translation system, is compare the player's batting win shares to those of 10-20 other players within 10 points in career OPS+ and similar career lengths. If the estimated win shares are obviously an outlier within this group, then they should not be trusted as an accurate projection from the MLE data. I based my MLE win shares off of similar season-by-season process of comparison, but I didn't cross-check them with career estimates. I would welcome someone doing a study of Oms on this basis to see the the projections seem reasonable in a context of career comparisons.

But the reliablity of the MLE win share estimates shouldn't be called into question because the show a player getting more (or less) than any single player, especialy when the player in question is known to be an outlier himself! Win shares is _not_ consistent in this regard, so the estimates can only place a player within a reasonable range of possibilities, given the player's component stats.
   33. AJMcCringleberry Posted: May 02, 2007 at 07:02 PM (#2352371)
PHOM - Carter, Blyleven, Freehan

1. Gary Carter - 4th greatest catcher of all time. Met him before game 5 of the 2000 WS.

2. Bert Blyleven - Almost 5000 innings with an ERA+ of 118. Top 10-20 pitcher.

3. Tony Perez - Long career (23rd in games, 34th in total bases, 62nd in runs created) and a nice peak split between third and first.

4. Bucky Walters - Great peak and good career value, 3000+ IP 115 ERA+.

5. Rusty Staub - Very long career (11th all time in games, 30th all time in ABs) with a decent peak. 59th in career total bases, 72nd in career XBH, 36th in career times on base.

6. Dizzy Trout - Nice peak. '44 was fantastic, he was robbed of MVP by teammate Newhouser.

7. Jimmy Ryan - Good hitting center fielder, long career

8. Bob Johnson - Outstanding hitter, never below a 125 OPS+ in his major league career.

9. Jake Beckley - Good hitter, played forever. 86th in career XBH.

10. Gavvy Cravath - Superb hitter, not much of a defender. Gets a couple of minor league seasons added to his major league totals. 4th on the all time home run list when he retired.

11. Graig Nettles - Excellent defender, good hitter over a long career. Brooks Robinson-lite.

12. Buddy Bell - Very similar to Nettles. Both decent hitters and great defenders with long careers.

13. Ken Singleton - 132 career OPS+. Very good peak, 4 year with an OPS+ over 150.

14. Bobby Bonds - 130 career OPS+. 461 SB, 332 HR, 5 30/30 seasons.

15. Ceasar Cedeno - A good defensive centerfield with a 123 OPS+ and 500+ steals.

16. Dave Parker
17. Vada Pinson
18. Dave Stieb
19. Tommy John
20. Norm Cash
21. Willie Randolph
22. Elston Howard
23. Hugh Duffy
24. Tommy Leach
25. Bus Clarkson
26. Bob Elliott
27. Ron Cey
28. Marvin Williams
29. Dave Concepcion
30. George Van Haltren
31. Harry Hooper
32. Luis Tiant
33. Alejandro Oms
34. Buzz Arlett
35. Orlando Cepeda
36. Gil Hodges
37. Burleigh Grimes
38. Reggie Smith
39. Jack Clark
40. Jose Cruz
41. Willie Davis
42. Fielder Jones
43. Dick Redding
44. Rick Reuschel
45. Pie Traynor
46. Jim Kaat
47. Gene Tenace
48. George Foster
49. Pete Browning
50. Wally Berger

Bresnahan - Just out of the top 50.

Fingers - I'm not sure about him, I'd like for a relief pitcher to have more than a couple of dominant seasons.
   34. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: May 03, 2007 at 01:29 AM (#2352860)
1998 BALLOT

1. Gary Carter: Just a smidge ahead of Rik Albert.

2. Bert Blyleven: A personal favorite of mine. A personal favorite of HOM voters in our mock BBWAA elections. We’re getting this one right for sure.

3. Wilbur Cooper: Dominant NL portsider of the late 1910s-early 1920s. This guy was in the (retroactive) Cy Young chase every single year for a good long while in the late teens and early 1920s, battling Old Pete, Hippo, and Dolf for several years. I like pitchers who show dominance for a good stretch, and he’s one.

4. Ken Singleton: He’s the best player in the AL of the very late 1970s, and a good long while best RF in the AL. And while he might not have much defensive value, he’s doing a great job of walking and hitting with power, lots of SEC. Plenty of All-Star and MVP type seasons.

5. Alejandro Oms: These aren’t my numbers, by the way, which tells you that this vote is not just a Doc C special. An outstanding CFer of the 1920s in the NgLs and CWL. Oms may not have a superior peak (it’ll be a long time before we can assess that with a lot of certainty), but we know now that he had a ton of career value to go with enough peak that he’s a wonderful prime/career candidate.

6. Larry Doyle: Dominant 2B of the NL of the 1910s, good peak/prime, and an argument for having been the best player in the NL for a brief time.

7. Elston Howard: After re-evaluation of his pre-MLB seasons, I think credit is only realistic for 1953-1954 at most. After adjusting for this, he drops back to just ahead of Tralee, not near as high as I had him previously.

8. Dave Stieb: Admittedly I’ve been an advocate for Stieb. But I think it’s warranted. He outshone the league during a difficult time to dominate, and he’s the best pitcher in the AL over long, meaningful stretches of time. I wish 1986 were better, but that’s life. You don’t get to pick when your off years happen. Even so, he had plenty left in the tank, and among eligible peak/prime pitchers, he’s a great choice for induction. I have him above Walters based on many of the small things discussed in the Stieb thread, however, I could just as easily have gone the other way on it.

9. Bucky Walters: You know the story---I like pitcher peaks, and he's got one, even when dampened for the war.

10. Leroy Matlock: He’s back. Many years ago now I saw Matlock as the best available pitcher. My consensus scores plummeted…. But in reviewing NgL players, I looked back on his thread, and I don’t really understand why I lost my nerve on him. The MLEs look HOMable, even if you see that 1937 season as a little less than 43 WS. I think we’ve whiffed on him, and that someday when we’ve got more better information, he’ll be one of the “lost” guys that no one talked about who ends up as a HOMer.

11. Tommy Leach: Pick your poison. As a CF, he’s not got enough peak to get on the ballot. But as a 3B, he’s a fabulous career candidate with enough at the top end to be among the top dozen 3Bs. Splitting it down the middle, he’s a 3B/CF hybrid with outstanding seasons at both positions, a nice, long career, and enough peak/prime to emerge as a downballot candidate.

12. Hugh Duffy: Lots of All-Star and MVP type seasons, a good run as his league's best position player, plenty of adjusted career value. He'd be a perfectly fine selection, but he’s certainly a borderliner.

13. Sal Bando: Same old, same old here. You’ve read my thoughts for ten years.

14. Rick Reuschel: I don’t always agree with Joe’s pitcher rankings, but I think his points about Reuschel viz Tiant are interesting. Big Daddy presents hope to all mesomorphs…people like me.

15. Luis Tiant: He’s near the end of my ballot, and given the chronologically unbalanced feel of it, I think he’s as good as anyone else from the more-modern era to go on the board. He’s a highly effective pitcher whom others have talked about at much greater length than I. No promises he or Reuschel will stay here next year, I’m extremely ambivalent about them, just as I’m extremely ambivalent about Dean and Grimes, who my systems suggest I should vote for, but who I can’t pull the trigger on.

NOTE: I had Cash number nine last year, but I’ve rethought that a bit and decided that he’s just off the ballot.


NEW GUYS
-Willie Randolph: He’s not on my ballot, but he’s not far off either.
-Jack Clark: The Ripper, aka The Dude (as I recollect) was scary but not always durable. That’s problematic at corner positions where there’s plenty of guys who are scary and durable. A member of the All Candy Bar Team (non Reggie, H-Rod, and Babe division)

C: Peppermint Paddy Livingston
1B: Jack Clark Bar
2B: Ed Abbaticchio-Zabaticchio
3B: Junior Stephens Mints
SS: Chicken Dinner Fulmer
RF: Melky Way
CF: Oscar Charleston Chew
LF: Turkish Taffy Wright
DH: Larry Biitner O Honey
Bench: Jarrod Whatchasaltimachiacallit
Bench: Carmello Martinez
SP: Nig Peanut Butter Cuppy
SP: Jim Kit Kaat
RP: Rollo Butterfingers
MGR: Almond Joy Cartwright

-Brian Downing: The Incredible Hulk would do anything to beat you; get hit, walk, hit for power, take lots of pitches, run into walls. Gotta admire that. Don’t have to vote for it, though.
-Carney Lansford: Good beard, but didn’t get on base quite enough to make up for middling power and a so-so glove. And the snowmobile didn’t help either.
-Pedro Guerrero: Great hitter, iffy glove, frequent visitor to the trainer, short career, not a combo that adds up for me.

NEW OLD GUYS AND OLD OLD GUYS
-Pete Browning: Just off my ballot, and I was probably wrong about his HOMiness previously.
-Rollie Fingers: I think we'll be overpopulating RP if we choose Fingers and Gossage from their era. Or just one of them?
-Jake Beckley: Can someone fill me in on this guy? I hear he’s a big-peak candidate; should I reconsider?
-Dick Redding: I’m not a believer. Those 1920s numbers aren’t pretty.
-Roger Bresnahan: More of a believer here. He’s probably a pHOM type player for me (I stopped figuring pHOMing a long time ago), but he’s not a high priority candidate in my queue.
-Bob Johnson: Or Bawb Jawnson as they said when he was in Boston. HOVG for me. Even if WS underrates them, is it enough to make up the difference? I don’t think so (thought I could be wrong), so I’m not ready to snap him up.
   35. Rick A. Posted: May 03, 2007 at 03:26 AM (#2353017)
PHOM
Gary Carter
Bert Blyleven
George Sisler

1. Gary Carter – Elected PHOM in 1998
2. Rik Aalbert – What an honor to be elected to the HOM! I can't beleive I'm really a member! What? ... Rik Aalbert Blyleven.... Oh.....He's good too. ;-) Elected PHOM in 1998
3. Charley Jones – Truly great hitter who missed 2 years in his prime. Elected PHOM in 1921.
4. Pete Browning – Great hitter. Elected PHOM in 1925
5. Vic Willis – Very good pitcher. I like him better than Waddell. Elected PHOM in 1945.
6. Dick Redding –Elected PHOM in 1968
7. Hugh Duffy – Better than Van Haltren and Ryan, Elected PHOM in 1970
8. Burleigh Grimes – Higher peak than Rixey. Elected PHOM in 1961
9. Bucky Walters Very high peak. Elected PHOM in 1972
10. Alejandro Oms – Jumps up some on this ballot. Elected PHOM in 1978.
11. Ed Williamson – I’ll take him over Boyer. Elected PHOM in 1958
12. Ken Singleton – Jumps onto ballot after I adjust for the DH. Elected PHOM in 1997.
13. Dizzy Dean – Short career, but high peak. Koufax lite. Elected PHOM in 1973.
14. Elston Howard – Underrated. Elected PHOM in 1985
15. Gavvy Cravath – Damn good hitter. Elected PHOM in 1988.

Required Disclosures
Fingers and Bresnahan just miss my ballot
Johnson Very good player. Nice prime. War discount hurts him a little. Also, I like a little more peak(or a longer career) from my corner outfielders.
Jake Beckley Finally have something to say about other than no peak. The Rick A. of HOM candidates.

New candidates
Willie Randolph One of my favorite Yankees. Not quite as good as Fox(although he is close). And I'm not a big fan of Fox.
Jack Clark Very nice player. Half a step behind Jim Rice and Dave Parker.
Dave Stieb He was a hard candidate to rate. I like how he dominated his era, but his peak isn't as strong as I'd like, and his career is short. In the 40's now, but could move up.
Pedro Guerrero Nice peak, but a little too short for me.

Off the ballot
16-20 Sutter,Fingers,Munson,Bresnahan,Newcombe
21-25 (Sisler),(Waddell),(Carey),Leach,(Dw.Evans)
26-30 Easter,Rosen,(Medwick),Bond,(BRobinson)
31-35 Mays,Monroe,Rizzuto,(Gordon),Nettles
36-40 Cooper,Elliott,Johnson,(Terry),(Fox)
41-45 Traynor,(Boyer),(Faber),(Rixey),Randolph
46-50 Scales,Shocker,Matlock,Stieb,(Doerr)
51-55 HSmith,FHoward,Bando,Bell,MWilliams
56-60 Doyle,FJones,(Ashburn),Perez,(DSutton)
61-65 Cey,HWilson,Van Haltren,Ryan,Schang
66-70 McGraw,AWilson,RSmith,Cepeda,Bancroft
71-75 Clarkson,(Sewell),Stephens,(Pierce),Poles
76-80 Winters,Mullane,ACooper,DDiMaggio,Berger
81-85 Burns,Lynn,Taylor,Parker,Tiernan
86-90 (Thompson),JRice,Pinson,Cedeno,Pesky
91-95 Chance,Cash,Fournier,Brock,Bonds
96-100 Clark,Lundy,McCormick,Beckley,Dunlap
   36. TomH Posted: May 03, 2007 at 03:25 PM (#2353252)
4th day of voting
19 ballots? a little slow this week?
   37. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: May 03, 2007 at 04:15 PM (#2353303)
I love how the 'Jake Beckley of HOM voters' doesn't vote for himself. I guess this means that Rick doesn't think he is a HOMable HOMie...;-)
   38. sunnyday2 Posted: May 03, 2007 at 05:16 PM (#2353356)
Re #36, I made the same comment last week at this time and we ended up with 51 ballots. I wonder if the 3 week cycle (2 "off" weeks) has anything to do with it.
   39. Rusty Priske Posted: May 03, 2007 at 05:34 PM (#2353372)
I don't know about other people but I have had trouble signing on this week. That may have soemthing to do with the slow turn out.
   40. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: May 03, 2007 at 06:21 PM (#2353409)
Re #36, I made the same comment last week at this time and we ended up with 51 ballots. I wonder if the 3 week cycle (2 "off" weeks) has anything to do with it.


If anything, the opposite should occur since each has voter has that much more time to utilize for their ballots.
   41. AJMcCringleberry Posted: May 03, 2007 at 06:29 PM (#2353417)
I don't know how many are in college, but I was busy with exams Monday and Tuesday.
   42. Thane of Bagarth Posted: May 03, 2007 at 06:34 PM (#2353422)
1998 Ballot
My ranking system heavily weights 5 year peaks, but additional career value can add up, too. I rely primarily on the uberstats, with about a 60/40 split between WARP and WS. I’m rather liberal with war and minor league credit. I use a catcher bonus of up to 10% based on the proportion of a player’s career spent behind the plate.

I think all of the WARP #s I’m using were up to date as of the beginning of December, 2006. I have already run the numbers for all “serious” eligibles (i.e. >200 career Win Shares) through the 2006 election.

1) Bert Blyleven
He’s only got 2 more Win Shares than Carter, but WARP1&3 have him ahead by about 20 wins. Carter has better peak numbers, but Blyleven’s aren’t shabby, so I’m comfortable putting Bert in the top spot.

2) Gary Carter
I have him as a top-5 all-time catcher. Ahead of Fisk, behind Berra.

3) Tony Perez
Perez is not terribly dissimilar from Staub—they’re almost identical by Win Shares. His peak according to WARP is substantially better than Staub’s (46.6 to 40.5) and he’s got more career value to boot (109.5 to 102.7), so Tony gets the edge.

4) Rusty Staub
By Win Shares he looks like a solid HoMer: 358 career, 145 top-5 consecutive. By WARP he’s a bit more marginal: 40.5 top 5 WARP3 isn’t super (albeit better than Beckley), but 102.7 career is respectable.

5) Willie Randolph
He put up very good career value (310+ WS, 115+ WARP3), especially for a 2nd baseman, but his 5-year peak is nothing special (42 WARP3, 114 WS). Definitely deserving of induction, eventually, if not this year.

6) Bucky Walters
A very good pitcher…I’m not convinced that he needs to be docked for the superb Reds defense more than the DTs already do.

7) Ben Taylor
The lack of data from his prime years makes all of this highly speculative, but I’m ranking him as if he was Keith Hernandez with a little less peak and more career (career totals of around 105 WARP3 and 320 Win Shares; with top 5s of 46 and 135, respectively).

8) Bob Johnson
100 WARP3, 287 WS for career plus Minor League credit makes him a legit HoM candidate.

9) Dick Redding
2nd best NeL pitcher of the deaball era, I’m hoping we’ll give him his due eventually.

10) Bobby Bonds
Similar in career value to Indian Bob (93 WARP3, 302 WS). 149 WS in top five consecutive seasons is impressive, though not unprecedented.

11) Graig Nettles
Although his peak numbers are a little lower than Bonds & Singleton, career totals are a little better…Nettles ends up somewhere in the middle.

12) George Van Haltren
GVH seems to be an obvious HoMer if you just look at Win Shares (344 career, 133 top 5 consecutive—before season length adjustments); however, WARP (especially WARP3) is not nearly as favorable: 86.5 career, 36.4 top 5.

13) Ken Singleton
Funny how a guy who conjures up such a divergent image of a “type” of player when compared to Bobby Bonds can put up such similar overall career and peak value—both have 302 WS, just over 90 WARP3; top 5s of about 150 WS, 46(BB)/48(KS) WARP3.

14) Luis Tiant
By WARP alone (98.2 career, 45.3 top 5 WARP3), I’d have him higher than Walters, but Win Shares is not as generous (256 career, 108 top 5 consec.).

15) Bill Monroe
Probably in the Doerr-Gordon 2B range…cautiously ranked a little lower.

The Rest of the Top 50

16) Jimmy Ryan—As I am sure has been hashed and re-hashed dozens of times previously in the history of the Hall of Merit, Ryan appears to be GVH part II (or part I).
17) Gavy Cravath—A heavy dose of MiL credit gives him the career bulk, which, when added to his peak, makes him a ballot contender.
18) Dizzy Trout
19) Tommy John
20) Buddy Bell
21) Charley Jones—Always close to the ballot, if not on it. I give him credit for 2 blackball/blacklist/whatever years.
22) Sam Rice
23) Jake Beckley—Close to the ballot due to career value, but his lowish peak holds him back.
24) Tommy Leach
25) Bus Clarkson
26) Rabbit Maranville
27) Norm Cash
28) Jim Kaat
29) Dave Parker
30) Reggie Smith
31) Jack Clark
32) Buzz Arlett
33) Burleigh Grimes
34) Jack Quinn
35) Bob Elliot
36) Jose Cruz
37) Harry Hooper
38) Dave Concepcion
39) Ron Cey
40) Vada Pinson
41) Phil Rizzuto
42) Alejandro Oms
43) Hugh Duffy
44) Rick Reuschel
45) Orlando Cepeda
46) Cesar Cedeno
47) Dick Lundy
48) Jim Rice
49) Lou Brock
50) Vern Stephens
.
.
.
61) Dave Stieb
65) Brian Downing

Returning Consensus Top 10 Not in My Top 100:
Rollie Fingers—Out of my top 100. I may be underrating relievers as a whole, but I modified my rankings to help closers/firemen when I originally had Wilhelm well below most other voters. Those adjustments help Rollie, but currently I can’t see adjusting them more to bring him closer to my ballot. I like Goose Gossage a lot more.
Pete Browning— He takes a real beating in the WARP1-3 conversions. I have voted for him in the past, but right now I’ve got him falling farther and farther behind the real ballot contenders.
   43. karlmagnus Posted: May 03, 2007 at 07:28 PM (#2353506)
I have to say I hate the three week cycle. It's the equivalent of those periods in Hornblowwer where the crew gets put on half rations because the French have sunk the supply ship. One understands the reason for it, but it doesn't make it fun. Furthermore,I bet people forget the voting week altogether because the interminable delay has cause them to do other stuff and forget about the project.

Unlike Hownblower's sailors, we are about to be marooned in the middle of the Pacific, with only one supply ship per annum. Doubt if we will survive the experience.
   44. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: May 03, 2007 at 07:38 PM (#2353517)
Well, that was a slightly melodramatic post, karlmagnus. ;-)
   45. DavidFoss Posted: May 03, 2007 at 07:51 PM (#2353535)
It does seem to be much slower rhythm to the project with the longer cycle. Much less urgency (could be my own personal distractions doing that I suppose). I guess it'll make the break ath the end of 2007 a bit less of a shock. Checking the dates on some of the older threads is a bit jarring. We've been doing this HOM thing for a long time (in real years as well as HOM years).
   46. karlmagnus Posted: May 03, 2007 at 07:54 PM (#2353539)
My preference, as I'fve said before, would be to turn around in 2007 when we get there and repeat the process in reverse, going backwards in time, to see if we elected the same people. Everything about this project is rational except the arbitrary decision to run it forwards except backwards :-)

As you can see, lack of HOM elections is causing my mind to wander...
   47. Paul Wendt Posted: May 03, 2007 at 07:59 PM (#2353546)
Marc sunnyday
Dropped Out

16. Gavvy Cravath (11-14-21, PHoM 1995)—can’t quite get 16 guys on a 15-man ballot

Close—i.e. right around in/out line, as I think we will elect another 6-8 or so backloggers before we’re done

17. Tommy Leach (17-20-21, PHoM 1998)—after all these years
(17a. Joe Kelley [23a-68a-68a])
18. Ken Singleton (18-31-32)
19. Johnny Pesky (28-29-30)
20. Bus Clarkson (24-44-44)
(20a. Jimmy Sheckard [21a-43a-43a])


Marc sunnyday is one of our skeptics on c.1900 outfielders. Keeler PHOM'd only recently. Kelley and Sheckard still in the queue. Are Thompson, Ryan, Duffy, and GVH all on the outside?


21. yest Posted: May 01, 2007 at 04:27 PM (#2351200)
1998 ballot
Carter, Blyleven, and George H. Burns make my PHOM this year


(My first thought was "another typo" as H and J are neighbors on the keyboard, but that is indeed George H. Burns, "J." being in the y-PHOM since 1932.)

How much PCL credit for George H. Burns? Does anyone else give him MLE for PCL or other play outside the majors.
   48. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: May 03, 2007 at 08:22 PM (#2353577)
How much PCL credit for George H. Burns? Does anyone else give him MLE for PCL or other play outside the majors.


MLE credit? Does anyone besides yest even have him on their radar? ;-)
   49. karlmagnus Posted: May 03, 2007 at 08:45 PM (#2353606)
My preference, as I'fve said before, would be to turn around in 2007 when we get there and repeat the process in reverse, going backwards in time, to see if we elected the same people. Everything about this project is rational except the arbitrary decision to run it forwards except backwards :-)

As you can see, lack of HOM elections is causing my mind to wander...
   50. Jim Sp Posted: May 03, 2007 at 08:51 PM (#2353608)
I still like the idea of doing this again with half the number of electees.
   51. AJMcCringleberry Posted: May 03, 2007 at 09:32 PM (#2353635)
I like the idea of doing this again but without those already elected.
   52. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: May 03, 2007 at 09:34 PM (#2353637)
I kind of like the idea of doing it again, only we're all in a room with a few dozen kegs of Ommegang Belgian Abbey Ale, lots of nachos, some really good sushi, hot macaroni and cheese standing by, and a sh*tload of ringdings.

Who's in?
   53. jingoist Posted: May 03, 2007 at 09:55 PM (#2353658)
My good Doctor:
The prescription for nourishment that you just elucidated above sounds like a recipe for an aftermath to a session with some Maui-Wowie.
Are you sure you haven't been taking a few hits on a big spliff; your brain drafted a pretty bizarre combination of food stuffs. I especially appreciate that you are a younger poster that I when you suggest "a few dozen kegs". Young guys can drink large quantities of ale; old guys just think they can drink ale.
   54. Juan V Posted: May 03, 2007 at 10:21 PM (#2353674)
What I'll probably end up doing (and I don't have to wait until we've caught up) is go back in time to 1898 and build my PHoM.

But yeah, the Doctor's idea sounds cool. :)
   55. sunnyday2 Posted: May 03, 2007 at 10:24 PM (#2353675)
No, once is enough. On to the MVP project.
   56. Rick A. Posted: May 04, 2007 at 01:13 AM (#2353860)
I love how the 'Jake Beckley of HOM voters' doesn't vote for himself. I guess this means that Rick doesn't think he is a HOMable HOMie...;-)

Actually, no I don't. I mentioned in the ballot discussion thread that I would be a career candidate based on my # of posts and my attempts at persuading people to my way of balloting. However, I am a peak/prime voter.

I have to say I hate the three week cycle.

I like the new three week cycle. I don't have access to BTF at work, so the only time I get to look at any threads is at night after my daughter goes to bed. It also gives me more time to actually complete some work at work, rather than crunch numbers and organize a ballot in one weeks time. Works been getting very busy and projects have been piling up the last few months.

No, once is enough. On to the MVP project.

and the Japanese wing, and the managers wing, etc.
   57. dan b Posted: May 04, 2007 at 01:40 AM (#2353899)
PHoM 1998 – Carter, Blyleven, Newcombe

1. Carter PHoM 1998. NHBA #8.
2. Blyleven PHoM 1998. What he could have done in a 4 man rotation.
3. Dean PHoM 1976. 1975 reevaluation of great pitching peaks put him on my ballot for the first time. NHBA #25.
4. Walters PHoM 1968. Nice peak.
5. Duffy PHoM 1912. I’ve been looking at how players on the ballot compare with the median level of already enshrined HoMers using WS. Duffy would be in the top half using 5 consecutive seasons, 10 consecutive seasons and 8 best seasons.
6. Bando PHoM 1994. Close to Boyer, James has him ahead. NHBA #11.
7. Howard, E PHoM 1995. NHBA #15
8. Rizzuto PHoM 1995. 1993 reevaluation moved him up. Another player deserving more WWII credit. NHBA #16.
9. Bresnahan PHoM 1928. SABR Dead ball era committee has him #1. No major league catchers between Ewing and Hartnett is not being fair to all eras.
10. Cooper, W PHoM 1942. Returns to my ballot in 1995 after 44-year hiatus. His peak was during a thinly recognized period. Willis may have been better, but his era is more strongly represented.
11. Burns, G. PHoM 1996. Came close to making PHoM during the 1929-1932 trough. Probably should have, better late than never. His 10-consective year peak is above the HoM median as is his 3-year non-consecutive.
12. Leach PHoM 1926.
13. Singleton PHoM 1997. Not many players on ballot with 3-32+ and 6-27+ WS seasons. How much better would the HoM be than the HOF if the worst player in our hall were Ken Singleton?
14. Mays, C PHoM 1997. His era could use another pitcher. A quality pitcher we are overlooking. NHBA #38.
15. Cravath PHoM 1967. mle credit where credit is due.
16. Newcombe PHoM 1998. Giving more war and mle credit (1993)
17. </b>Parker</b> Do the first base line Dave. NHBA #14.
18. Howard, F I’ll take Hondo’s peak over Bobby Bonds. I can’t bring myself to PHoMing him.
19. Willis, V PHoM 1941.
20. Browning PHoM 1912.
21. Stieb
22. Berger
23. Rosen If Moore, why not Rosen? If a great 5 consecutive season peak were the only measure we considered, Rosen would have been elected in 1964.
24. Bonds, Bo Barry’s dad was pretty good.
25. Munson NHBA #14
26. Staub
27. Evans, Dw
28. Perez
29. Cepeda
30. Tiant
31. Cash, N
32. Doyle PHoM 1930.
33. Chance, F PHoM 1921.
34. Jones, C – I have voted for him (4) times – 1898 thru 1901. When I dropped him in ’02, he received only 2 votes. Ed Williamson was on 18 ballots; Arlie Latham drew more support with 3 votes. My 1898 ballot comment – “9. Jones. Two-year hold out probably costs him a couple places”. Nobody was giving credit for not playing back then, as we hadn’t tackled issues like war and mil credit yet. If as many voters had treated his hold out years like he was an all-star back then as are doing so now, he may have been elected by 1920. His 1988 top-10 finish pushed me to re-evaluate for 1989 and give him holdout credit. A reconstructed PHoM based on if I thought then like I think now, would have put him in my PHoM during the trough years of 1929-32 if not 1921.
35. Grimes
36. Ryan
37. Van Haltren Do 3 years of slightly below average pitching really merit Van Haltren this much more support than Jimmy Ryan?
38. Redding Fared well in the Cool Papa’s survey, as did Spots Poles and Dobie Moore.
39. Elliott
40. Brock not enough peak to be higher
41. Pinson
42. Smith, Reg less peak and less career than Brock
43. Sutter I like him better than Fingers.
44. Arlett
45. Traynor
46. Nettles
47. Cicotte Better character and a couple more good years made possible by better character would have made him a HoFer if not a HoMer.
48. Gomez More peak than Tiant.
49. Bell
50. Murcer
51. Evers
52. Randolph Before we elect Willie, take a closer look at Evers.
53. Cey
54. Mazeroski
55. Fingers
56. McGraw Best 3B of the 90’s
57. Colavito

Go back to about 1910 and build a small hall, 1 player a year.
   58. Howie Menckel Posted: May 04, 2007 at 02:25 AM (#2353974)
I don't like the 3-week cycle, either, as I am a creature of habit (seeking curmudgeon status eventually).
Also pretty busy this week, may not vote til Sunday or Monday...
   59. yest Posted: May 04, 2007 at 03:43 AM (#2354064)
You must really like those steals, since you PHoMed him a year before he became eligible ;-)

thank you I noticed I made a few more mistakes in the list (for some reason most of them involved 1984 maby thats what Orwell meant)
   60. yest Posted: May 04, 2007 at 03:58 AM (#2354078)
yest - a small question - if you knocked Maranville for drinking, did you also look into the drinking problems of Browning and Beckley? And probably most other professional athletes between 1860-1960?

the reason I knocked him down were for stories about him waking up teammates in the middle of the night to go out drimking and other such things that would make other teammates play worse due to his behaveor



I mention those two specifically, because I have also read accounts of how their specific drunkeness harmed their teams.
in regards to other players I read plenty about how it ruined their careers but not any more then their personal records would show. If in the future I find such instances I would lower them to (hopfully after Browning is elected!)
   61. jimd Posted: May 04, 2007 at 06:00 PM (#2354442)
Ballot for 1998 (cast)

Read previous ballots if you want more depth on my reasons for all but the latest eligibles.

I am a peak/prime/career voter. Prime tends to dominate the ballot as Career has had an easier time of it in HOM elections, and short Peaks don't get too far in my system.

1) G. CARTER -- Underrated in his time due to playing in pitcher's parks. Prime 1977-86. Best player in 1982 by WARP. 1st-team MLB All-Star (C) in 1979, 1980, 1981, 1982, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1986; WARP adds 1978. Other star seasons include 1977.

2) B. BLYLEVEN -- Too much good pitching to ignore. Prime 1971-77, 1984-89. Best player in 1973 by WARP. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1973, 1984; WARP adds 1976, 1981, 1985; WS adds 1989. Other star seasons include 1971, 1972, 1974, 1975, 1977, 1986, 1987.

3) D. STIEB -- The lack of support here is surprising to me. Best pitcher of the early 1980's. Prime 1980-89. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1982, 1983, 1984, 1985; WARP adds 1981. Other star seasons include 1980, 1988, and 1989.

4) B. WALTERS -- Best of the backlog. Prime 1939-44. Best player in 1939; candidate in 1940 by WS. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1939, 1941, 1944; WS adds 1940. Other star seasons include 1936 and 1942.

5) D. CONCEPCION -- His best 7 seasons are very close to Ozzie's best 7, though Ozzie is clearly superior in peak, shoulder seasons, and career value. Prime 1974-82. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SS) in 1974; WARP adds 1976 and 1979; WS adds 1978 and 1981. Other star seasons include 1982. HM in 1975 and 1977.

6) K. SINGLETON -- Better peak than Bonds; not quite as much prime as Wynn. Prime 1973-81. Best player candidate 1977, WS adds 1979. 1st-team MLB All-Star (RF) in 1975 and 1977. Other star seasons include 1973, 1978, 1979, 1980, 1981; also 1976 in LF.

7) J. KAAT -- Belongs. 14 HOM "bats" were born 1893-1903 (Sisler, Heilmann, Ruth, Torriente, Charleston, Terry, Goslin, Suttles, Stearnes, Averill, Simmons, Waner, Bell, Gehrig); don't tell me that 10 pitchers born 1938-48 are too many.Prime 1961-1975. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1962; WS adds 1966. Other star seasons include 1974 and 1975. HM in 1961, 1964, 1967, 1971.

8) F. JONES -- Still an all-star player when he walked away. I still think he rates ahead of Ashburn, but it's close. Prime 1900-08. 1st-team MLB All-Star (CF) in 1908; WARP adds 1902 and 1907. Other star seasons include 1900, 1901, 1903, 1904, 1905, 1906.

9) L. TIANT -- Pitching candidate very close to the in/out line. Win Shares does not like him. Tended to alternate good years (even) and off years (odd). Prime 1966-1978. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1968, 1974; WS adds 1976. Other star seasons include 1972 and 1973. Honorable Mention in 1966 and 1978.

10) F. DUNLAP -- Great two-way player; bypassed for some reason. Amibidextrous, too. Reportedly could catch and throw equally well with either hand. Useful in this era before modern fielding gloves forced a player to choose one hand for each. Prime 1880-86. Best Player candidate 1880-81 (WARP). 1st-team MLB All-Star (2B) in 1880, 1881; WARP adds 1882, 1883, and 1885. 1884 in the UA is hard to evaluate but may also be #1. Other star seasons include 1886.

11) B. BONDS -- Very nice prime; marginal on career. Those who go to extreme either way will miss him. Prime 1969-77. Best player candidate 1970 by WS. 1st-team MLB All-Star (RF) in 1970; WARP adds 1971 and 1973. Other star seasons include 1969, 1972, 1974, 1975, 1977, 1978. HM in 1979.

12) R. CEY -- Important component of the late 70's Dodgers. Prime 1973-1981. 1st-team MLB All-Star (3B) in 1978 by WARP. Other star seasons include 1974, 1975, 1976, 1979, 1980, and 1981. HM in 1973 and 1977.

13) D. BANCROFT -- Boost due to DanR's replacement level work. Prime 1916-22. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SS) 1920 and 1921; WS adds 1922. Other star seasons include 1916, 1917, 1918, 1925, 1926.

14) B. MAZEROSKI -- Prime 1957-66. 1st-team MLB All-Star (2B) 1960 and 1964; WARP adds 1958. Other star seasons include 1962, 1963, 1966. HM in 1957, 1961, 1965.

15) P. TRAYNOR -- I see the HOM as being somewhat heavy on "bats" (OF/1B) and went to a system organized around position groups (arms/bats/gloves). Traynor was a major beneficiary of the reorg. Prime 1923-33. 1st-team MLB All-Star (3B) in 1923, 1925, 1927, 1931; WS adds 1929, 1932, 1933. Other star seasons include 1926. HM in 1928 and 1930.

16) R. MARANVILLE -- Better WARP career than Beckley. Where's the luv from the career voters? Prime 1913-22. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SS) in 1914 and 1916 by WS. Other star seasons include 1913, 1915, 1917, 1919, 1921, 1922, and 1929. WWI service in 1918.

17) W. RANDOLPH -- No peak. Long low prime with a good career. Prime 1976-80, 1984-89. 1st team MLB All-Star (2b) by WS in 1980. Other star seasons include 1976, 1978, 1979, 1985, 1987, 1989. HM in 1977, 1982, 1986.

18) E. HOWARD -- It's close, but I have him ahead of Freehan. Prime 19??-64. 1st-team MLB All-Star (Ca) in 1961, 1963, 1964. Other star seasons include 1962. HM in 1958.

19) D. DEAN -- High peak candidate. Prime 1932-36. Candidate for best player in MLB baseball, 1934. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) 1934, 1935, 1936; WARP adds 1932. Other star seasons include 1933.

20) T. MUNSON -- Close to Howard and Freehan. Prime 1970-78. 1st-team MLB All-Star (Ca) 1976; WARP adds 1973. Other star seasons include 1970, 1975, 1977. HM in 1971, 1972, 1978.

Just missing the cut are:
21-23) Tony Perez, Rollie Fingers, Dizzy Trout,
24-26) Jim McCormick, Bobby Veach, Dick Redding,
27-30) Norm Cash, Jim Whitney, Ron Guidry, Vida Blue,
31-33) Graig Nettles, Jake Beckley, Roger Bresnahan,
34-36) George Foster, Charley Jones, Bob Johnson,

I trust that those who say, in their defense of Pete Browning, that there is a point of diminishing returns when it comes to discounting players in weak leagues, are giving Fred Dunlap the benefit of the same doubt when it comes to 1884.
   62. Jim Sp Posted: May 04, 2007 at 06:24 PM (#2354458)
Carter #1, Blyleven #2, Stieb #4, Randolph #5, Jack Clark #26.

1) Carter--Overqualified.
2) Blyleven--If we have to argue about this I may poke my eye out with a sharp stick.

...immense gap...

3) Bob Johnson-- WinShares says C fielder, warp thinks he’s considerably better than that. Very high assist totals from LF. Played CF for a terrible 1938 A’s team, also a little bit of 2B and 3B. On the whole I think the record indicates that he was actually a good defensive player. I also suspect that his WinShares suffer from playing on some horrible teams. May have struggled trying to get a break, tough to grab playing time on the great A’s teams earlier in his career. Never did anything but mash despite late ML start at age 27. 1934-1942 is a HoM worth prime in my view. PHoM in 1970.
4) Stieb--The dominant pitcher during a tough time to dominate. Lack of support made his dominance hard to see. Great year for example in 1985 (171 ERA+, 265 IP), and went 14-13. 1982-1985 each year was top 3 in both IP and ERA+. 1981-1985 warp3: 8.5, 9.9, 9.1, 9.7, 9.4.
5) Randolph--Tremendously underrated. I’m sure Dan R will make the case in full, but lifetime OBP of .373 plus great defense and longevity looks good to me. Funny how someone could be so good for so long in NY and get so little credit.
6) Rizzuto--The man lost his age 25, 26, and 27 seasons to the war, right after a very good season in 1942. One of the best fielding shortstops of all time. A 93 career OPS+ is strong for a grade A shortstop, not weak. Great peak season in 1950 (11.4 warp3). PHoM 1977.
7) Concepcion--Grade A+ shortstop and could hit some too. Weak hitting at the beginning and end, but above average during prime 1973-1982. Warp3 prime: 10.7, 10.2, 10.2, 9.7, 8.8, 8.7, 8.3, 8.0. Note that Win Shares is conservative in assigning fielding credit to the great fielders. PHoM 1994.
8) Nettles--Great fielder with quite a bit of pop in his bat. Best Warp3: 10.7, 10.2, 8.9, 8.4, 8.2. PHoM 1995.
9) Perez--Interesting, most people like his career, but wait a minute…he was playing third base from 1967-1971…there’s a peak there. PHoM 1997.
10) Stephens-- PHoM in 1961. Looks underrated to me. Best years by Warp3 10.2, 10.1, 8.9, 8.5, 8.0, 7.8. Another player short on career length, but I like the prime.
11) Bobby Bonds--PHoM 1986. 1969 -75, 77 are all very good to MVP candidate seasons. Career 130 OPS+ plus good speed, a good enough fielder to play some CF. Is only lacking longevity.
12) Cey--I’ll take the plunge on Cey. I like Elliott, so indeed Cey shows up on my ballot. Power, walks, and defense at 3rd…wish the Mets didn’t spend 40 years looking for that. He didn’t look like a ballplayer but he was a good one. Best Warp3 10.5, 9.6, 9.2, 9.1, 9.0, 8.9. Interesting that Hack and Groh are in while Elliott and Cey are out, I have them in the same bunch. I assume Cey and Elliott’s lack of support is a bad omen for Nettles, Buddy Bell, and Ventura. PHoM 1997.
13) Elliott--PHoM in 1960. The hitting for a 3B in his era is outstanding. Best years by warp3: 10.9, 9.4, 9.2, 8.7, 7.7, 7.3, 7.0. Strong prime trumps an early decline in my view.
14) Buddy Bell--The number of other 3b candidates should not be held against him. Compare him to the average starting 3b of the era and clearly he was a superior player. Compare Bell’s 108 OPS+ to say Ray Knight (99), Phil Garner (99), Enos Cabell (93)—none of whom were good fielders at 3rd. It’s a tough position. Apparently I’m doomed to end this exercise with 10 third baseman on my ballot.
15) Munson--PHoM 1991. I like Munson more than Freehan because of the peak. 1970, 73 and 75-77 were big seasons for a catcher.

Browning—after his great season in the 1890 PL at age 29, not much. Not in my top 100.
Beckley-#58. Lots of career with no peak.
Walters #50. Nice peak but not quite enough career.
Redding #17.
Fingers #16.
Bresnahan—not in my top 100, though I did vote for him a long time ago. Not enough catching time to bump him way up.
   63. sunnyday2 Posted: May 04, 2007 at 07:10 PM (#2354492)
Wow. Nobody pre-1930 and he's (the '30s guy) the only guy pre-WWII. 4 of the top 5 are brand new (1980s), and another 7 are from the '70s. And the pre-1970 required disclosures with a real ML record are 50, 58 and 2 below #100. That's some timeline. Is anybody pre-1930 in your top 50 besides Redding #17 and Walters #50? How many other 1980s guys are top 50?
   64. Paul Wendt Posted: May 04, 2007 at 07:18 PM (#2354499)
1) Carter--Overqualified.
2) Blyleven--If we have to argue about this I may poke my eye out with a sharp stick.


Your vision is safe.
But you know that, having waited until dozens of ballots are in.
   65. DL from MN Posted: May 04, 2007 at 07:44 PM (#2354518)
I bet Bancroft is in Jim Sp's top 50 and probably Tommy Leach. I think WARP3 is the source of his timeline. We appear to have similar tastes but I'm using WARP1. I think WARP1 is fairer in a "pennant is a pennant" election.
   66. rico vanian Posted: May 04, 2007 at 07:51 PM (#2354524)

1) Gary Carter
– Why he wasn’t a first ballot Hall Of Famer is absurd.
2) Bert Blyleven – Best available pitcher by far.
3) Chuck Klein –4 hr titles including a triple crown. His age similarity scores from age 25-34 mirror Ruth, DiMaggio and Ted Williams. Even in a bandbox ballpark, that’s not too shabby.
4) Burleigh Grimes –5 20 wins seasons, 270 total wins, very strong on the black and gray ink tables.
5) Pie Trayner –.320 career average, hit .300 or better 10 times
6) Luis Aparicio –nine Gold Glove awards, led the American League in stolen bases nine seasons and was named to the All Star squad 10 times. When he retired in 1973, he held the career record for shortstops for games played, double plays and assists.
7) Rollie Fingers – The first of the great modern relievers.
8) Lou Brock - The H.O.M. doesn’t appear to value stolen bases (Aparicio, for example) as highly as I do. 3000 hits is a major qualifier for me as well.
9) Ernie Lombardi –2 ba titles, 8 all star games, .300 career average as a catcher.
10) Sam Rice – Talk about late bloomers…Virtually no stats before he was 29 and still finished just shy of 3000 hits.
11) Phil Rizzuto – SS on the team with the greatest era ever. 3 prime years lost to WW2 would have put him over 2000 hits and ended the debate.
12) Willie Randolph – Really, really good for a long time (even after he left the Yankees)
13) Jim Rice – Hit for power and average. Career flamed out, but I don’t see why Keller got more votes than him.
14) Gavvy Cravath - The leading power hitter of the immediate pre-Ruth era.
15) Jake Beckley – almost 3000 hits

no soup for...
16)Steve Garvey – Underrated due to fidelity / “feet of clay” overtones
17) Hugh Duffy – That .440 year is just plain sick.
18) Mickey Welch – 300 wins in a short career, but never the top pitcher in his era.
19) Dave Parker – Drugs are bad, mmkay?
20) George Foster- I think he is getting shortchanged. A terrific hitter for about 7 years.
21) Addie Joss- Awesome peak
22) Gil Hodges – Great fielder, very good hitter for arguably the NL team of the 50's.
23) Thurman Munson – A good peak, obviously not a long career, although by the time of his death, he was already pretty much finished
24) Catfish Hunter- Peak and clutch
25) Pete Browning – League quality and shortness of career issues.
26) Tony Perez- I could have hit 20 homers and driven in 90 rbi’s a year with Rose, Morgan, Bench, etc surrounding me.
27) Tony Oliva- With good knees, he would’ve been a sure thing HOF’er
28) Tommy John &
29) Jim Kaat - Longevity certainly, Greatness no.
30) Dave Concepcion – I have him below Aparicio and Rizzuto on the SS list.
31) Bruce Sutter – Great peak, but not enough years
32) Ron Guidry – A late start and the Billy Martin/Art Fowler run em till they’re done school of arm management didn’t help. One of my all time favorites.
33) Dave Stieb – It would have been very interesting had he played for a better team to see what his career won/loss would have been.
34) Vida Blue – What might have been…
35) Bill Madlock – Just hit, baby.
36) Bob Johnson – Much like the Jeffersons, he’s moving on up.
37) Don Baylor &
38) Reggie Smith The Hall of very good beckons
39) Bucky Walters- Nice peak, but not enough.
40) Dick Redding - Another player with anecdotal, but not statistical evidence.
41) Graig Nettles – I grew up a Yankee fan and I remember the big hitting, but not until the Dodger/Yankee World Series was his fielding ever really lauded.

Roger Bresnahan is not close. Two years with over 125 hits does not a great player make. Unless of course they were a pitcher.
   67. Jim Sp Posted: May 04, 2007 at 09:52 PM (#2354610)
Wow. Nobody pre-1930 and he's (the '30s guy) the only guy pre-WWII. 4 of the top 5 are brand new (1980s), and another 7 are from the '70s. And the pre-1970 required disclosures with a real ML record are 50, 58 and 2 below #100. That's some timeline. Is anybody pre-1930 in your top 50 besides Redding #17 and Walters #50? How many other 1980s guys are top 50?

It could be that I need a stronger expansion adjustment, I think that's fair. I'm convinced I need a DH adjustment (though that would help Randolph, not hurt him). Largely I agree with Dan R's analysis, although I'm unsure whether a revamp of 2B candidates should be a strong as he recommends (modern salaries for 2B indicate he's right, but I still think the ability to make the pivot and stay healthy doesn't grow on trees). I do like the modern 3B and SS candidates for the reasons Dan R detailed.

4 out of the top 5 is more or less a fluke. Stieb was the dominant pitcher of the 80s, and Randolph played great 2B with an OBP of .373. Beckley was...well very good for a long time. I'll take Stieb and Randolph. #58 at this point actually means I pretty much like Beckley, it's not like I'm saying he stinks. At some point we're deciding between the 220th and 235th greatest players in the game, if I rate him #270 that isn't a huge absolute difference in quality.

My ranking isn't strictly maintained after the top 15, but some old timers I like are:

Charley Jones, John McGraw
Bartell, Bancroft
Travis, Pesky
Redding, Oms, Taylor, Monroe

In particular I may pull the trigger on Charley Jones next election.

I might jump onto a bandwagon on any one of them. But not Browning and Bresnahan, sorry.

I will now return to my regularly scheduled late Monday ballot submission.
   68. OCF Posted: May 05, 2007 at 02:05 PM (#2355116)
I wouldn't go beating Jim Sp up over his ballot - I find it perfectly reasonable. All of our old-time candidates who have survived this many ballots without being elected have serious flaws in their candidacies. For the most part, a new candidate who is that flawed draws very little support and gets flushed from the ballot immediately. Look at the example of yest's ballot, which is so stuffed with holdover "teddy bears" that he can't find room for Blyleven in his top 15. Now, the rest of us aren't going to lose a Blyleven that way - if the phenomenon occurs it will be a little lower on the ballot. But lets say there are a clump of people you've been voting on for a long time, and another clump that's been hovering just off of your ballot for a long time. And now comes a new candidate who's not a slam dunk - say a Stieb or a Randolph. Where does he go? All the way below both of your clumps of backloggers? Is that really the right place?
   69. Willie Mays Hayes Posted: May 05, 2007 at 02:51 PM (#2355134)
I kind of like the idea of doing it again, only we're all in a room with a few dozen kegs of Ommegang Belgian Abbey Ale, lots of nachos, some really good sushi, hot macaroni and cheese standing by, and a sh*tload of ringdings.

Who's in?


Dude. I'm so in.
   70. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: May 05, 2007 at 06:53 PM (#2355239)
Dude. I'm so in.


Me, too (though I like my fish cooked rather than raw).
   71. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: May 05, 2007 at 08:35 PM (#2355293)
I am in if we add in an Ale of some sort instead of a Belgian Abbey.
   72. sunnyday2 Posted: May 05, 2007 at 08:44 PM (#2355304)
>some really good sushi

Like, oxymoron, dude.

As for #68, I refuse to accept yest as an example of any other ballot. If 1935 is about the mid-point "now" (1998) in baseball history, I've got 6 before and 9 after. I'm just not quite as enthusiastic about the '80s.
   73. Rob_Wood Posted: May 05, 2007 at 09:53 PM (#2355348)
1998 ballot from this career voter (low replacement level):

1. Bert Blyleven - I have championed his HOF case for way too long; feels good to vote him into the HOM
2. Gary Carter - he and Bert are very close; Carter is all time top 10 catcher
3. Jake Beckley - luv the career, though peakless
4. George Van Haltren - deserving star of the underrepresented 1890s
5. Graig Nettles - super fielder; I am surprised by his lack of support
6. Bob Johnson - solid hitter, solid career (w/minor lg credit)
7. Willie Randolph - very good fielder and solid hitter
8. Bobby Bonds - good combo of peak and career
9. Tony Perez - good career though he was barely an adequate 3B defensively
10. Bob Elliott - good 3B mired with woeful Pirates and Braves
11. Tommy Bridges - luv the strikeouts & win pct, with minor league and wwii credit
12. Rusty Staub - good peak + good career (similar to Perez)
13. Charley Jones - great player, with lockout credit
14. Reggie Smith - boost from center field play and japan
15. Chuck Klein - great peak even park-adjusted
----------
16-20 RMaranville, HWilson, LAparicio, PTraynor, BClarkson

Not voting for Walters (around 100th), Redding (around 50th), Browning (around 100th), Fingers (around 50th), and Bresnahan (around 100th).
   74. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: May 06, 2007 at 01:41 PM (#2355847)
Like, oxymoron, dude.

What if I include Walleye Sushi?
   75. Howie Menckel Posted: May 06, 2007 at 07:01 PM (#2356069)
1998 ballot - our 101st

I had last year's electees DwEvans-Fox-Roush at 4-13-12 on my ballot. An unusually high number of my old-time favorites have been elected, so modern candidates will do fairly well on my ballot in some years.

Toughest ballot I can recall in a long time; dogfight at 1-2 plus 3 other candidates I ultimately needed to slot into the pack somewhere.

The annual fine print: Overall, I think there is too much emphasis on WARP3 and WS, which are intriguing tools but which are not yet sufficiently mature.
So my preference for ERA+ and OPS+ helps, I think, as a reality check. Increasingly, I've had to adjust for PAs per season, not really an issue in earlier years when nearly all star players played almost every day.
I tend to be mostly prime-oriented with hitters, prime and career with pitchers. But a huge peak sometimes catches my eye, and a remarkably long hitting career also works for me.


1. BERT BLYLEVEN - Cherry-pickers delight - only won 19+ twice/won 14+ a dozen times/lost 14+ 8 times/only top 3 in IP twice/in top 10 in IP 11 times/never won a Cy Young/top 4 in voting 3 times, etc. Placed in top 4 in Ks 13 times as well. Ultimately, I see a Bunning-esque 7-year prime, which is a very good start as I voted for Bunning. What makes Blyleven an easy HOMer is that he has 7 MORE seasons of 116 to 129 ERA+. Not quite as durable as some imagine, but he smokes the entire Bunning/Rixey/Wynn/Pierce/Drysdale crowd for sure. There is some indication that he didn't always hold leads well, but it's not enough to knock off elect-me by any means. So far ahead of the other pitchers on the ballot that he wins even peak arguments again them, and ultimately this is a hybrid peak/prime/career candidate.
2. GARY CARTER - Very close to Blyleven, which is a mild disappointment. I thought maybe he hit closer to Bench than Simmons, but outside of the peak/prime where it's close, in truth he wasn't nearly the overall hitter that Simmons was. Much better glove, though, would give me Carter over Simmons overall. Got overused from 1980-85 (caught all but about 15 G per year), and as a result his last big year was at age 31. That's ok, he'd alreayd done plenty to waltz into the HOM on his first try.
3. DAVE STIEB - Huh, 1-2-3 of newcomers. Stieb is way behind the top 2, of course, but I have his best 6-7 years right at the Bunning-Pierce level, which is HOM-endorsed both by me and by the electorate. I have fewer doubts about him than anyone else on the ballot, so he gets to go here right out of the gate.

4. ROLLIE FINGERS - Continues to lead the leftover pack for me. Yes, a devilish career to evaluate. So how does he wind up nearly atop my backlog again this year? He has many pluses: nine seasons with 100 relief IP (Rivera has one, when he was a setup man). He won about 100 games in relief not as a vulture, but as a guy pitching when it mattered most. For those dazzled by modern save totals, realize that Fingers was in the top 4 in his league in SVs 11 times (to 8 for Sutter and 7 for Rivera). Sutter pitched more than 107 IP once - Fingers did that 10 consecutive years. Sutter's peak is higher, for sure. But Fingers had a couple of other-worldly years, too. But most of all, what wins Fingers this slot is his inherited-runner numbers (and bonus World Series heroics). Fingers' teams just kept winning games he pitched for them - often he'd win himself, and often he'd save the day with runners on. In some way, I think Fingers was SO good in the 'clutch' for so long that it seems like he was not just getting lucky over and over again. Either way, the results were of immense value.
5. PETE BROWNING - Stubbornly holding on. Look at the 1890 PL season. Browning, at age 29, leads the league in adj OPS+ by 13 pts over 32-yr-old HOMer Connor, followed by a 22-yr-old Beckley and HOMers Ewing, Brouthers, Gore, O'Rourke at 6-7-8-9. Ewing is 30, Brouthers is 32, Gore is 33, O'Rourke is 39. Browning by all accounts is 'an old 29' due to his health and alcohol problems. Yet in his chance to play in a HOMer-laden league, he dominates. Yet I am supposed to assume that as a younger player he wouldn't have been able to post big numbers in the NL rather than the AA? Seven OPS+s above 163. 10 seasons as a regular, a good number for the era. This lousy fielder played some 16 pct of his career in the infield. Given the era, how much did he really hurt his team in the field? Not as much as some think; it was a different game then.
6. BOB JOHNSON - I really like this sort of consistency over an endless span. Sort of the Joe Gordon of OFs in career shape, or a slightly longer and flatter version of Kiner. I am concerned by 1944 being his highest OPS+; seems like he took advantage of the weak competition, so I discount that a bit. But has more than a decade's worth of excellent hitting, for a prime that I like better than Van Haltren's or almost any other holdover's.
7. CANNONBALL DICK REDDING - A longtime favorite who has climbed his way back onto my ballot in recent years. I liked him as an all-around candidate, but the HOF research suggests he's more of a peak guy. Those types don't always fare well with me, but with the weakening ballot, to be fair I think he belongs here.
8. JAKE BECKLEY - Ah, the great polarizer. His fielding had more value than I think some voters realize (though not as much as I used to think), he played every day, he hit well - there's nothing remotely like this career among the unelected hitters from 1875-1935. 13 OPS+s of 120 or better (even Kaline had 'only' 12, while Banks only had 7). Rivals came and went; it's only Beckley who lasted. Suffers from those looking at his career through a modern prism, especially with newer voters. The biggest issue for him may be the 8 seasons in the 120s - I find that quite valuable, given era and position; others do not.
9. JACK CLARK - I never knew Bob Johnson had a grandson who played in the bigs, lol. Main difference is a slightly, just slightly, better rate for JClark, but Johnson was more durable. With Johnson boosted a bit by war years, it's a damn coin flip.
10. BOB ELLIOTT - Bob helps me from being TOO far ahead of the consensus pack, lol. If you haven't examined him in a while - or ever - get to it!! Six seasons of at least 134 OPS+, ALL of them as a 3B. Wish he'd played all 3B and not much OF, but c'est le vie - Sewell seemed to get treated as a full SS by some. Beats out HOMer Boyer (see Boyer thread for details) and compares remarkably well with HOMer Santo as a hitter (see Santo thread for more details). Better than HOMer Hack as well, and better than HOMer DaEvans (see DaEvans thread).
11. ROGER BRESNAHAN - Back on the ballot after a long drought, and jumps right to the middle. Was discarded long ago when I liked many careers better; a fresh look against this pack is enlightening. C and CF combo is fascinating; seems like he was an outstanding all-around player. Just wish he had one more big year, but I can say that about most of the ballot.
12. WILLIE RANDOLPH - Same spot I had Fox in last year, which means I like Willie more because this is a tougher ballot to crack. Remarkably had NINE seasons with a 100 to 107 OPS+, which combined with slick 2B fielding is quite a valuable player. Also cleared 120 OPS+ three times, which is outstanding with this fielding/position. Not sure he's a HOMer, but will likely find a home on this ballot annually.
13. DAVE BANCROFT - Not sure if I ever voted for him before. But look at the prime: fantastic fielder at SS, with OPS+s of 120-19-19-09-09-09-04. Won a fresh 3-way evaluation vs Fox and Concepcion a year ago. Similar to Randolph, but an SS, so maybe Bancroft gets the nod next time.
14. VIC WILLIS - Won last year's SP bakeoff with Grimes and Walters, with slightly more career than Walters and better peak than Grimes. But boy it's close!
15. ORLANDO CEPEDA - Yet another guy back from the dead who suddenly popped up on my ballot last yearwith the reevaluation. Had been losing out to Perez with positional consideration, but closer look shows a sterling top-4 and top-10 offensive line. DH opportunity added nothing to his case.

JUST MISSED
FRANK HOWARD - I had forgotten how spectacular his peak was, and his career tally - 142 OPS+ in nearly 8000 PA. Yes, he suffers due to defense - he could make a case for ranking No. 1 if he could field! Best-3 seasons - 177-70-70 in 1968-70, with almost 2100 PA total - make these other guys look like banjo hitters.
REGGIE SMITH - Climbs back to my 'just missed' pile after noticing how similar he is to Jack Clark. Yes, a lot of CF, so maybe with further review he battles onto the ballot after all.
BURLEIGH GRIMES - Falls off the ballot for the first time in a while. Compare to Ruffing, Rixey, Wynn and other such HOM pitchers - ok, Sutton, too. I dismissed him as short of Rixey and Ruffing, and he was. But he's just one 130 ERA+ year short of climbing a little higher on this ballot. Better peak than Tommy John, and a lot more durable relative to his era.
DAVE CONCEPCION - Peak is as good or better than Fox's; not quite as consistent, but a slick fielder and a very useful offensive weapon many times. Not fully buying the "other teams were stupid enough to play ciphers at the position" argument; that helped the Reds win pennants, but Concepcion can't get full credit for that stupidity. Similar case to Bancroft, whose prime I preferred this year to Concepcion's length.
LUIS TIANT - Looks like he has the peak at first glance, but notice that the IP just aren't quite there. Plenty good when he did pitch, but with that lack of innings you have to be even more dominant. Maybe he winds up as the era's last P electee, but probably not.
RON CEY - I have him over Nettles and Bell and nearly on the ballot, but that's because I may like his fielding better than most. Closest of the trio to Bando in hitting. Talk me into voting for him.
GRAIG NETTLES - Very good fielder with nine seasons of 100 to 115 OPS+ as a regular, and outstanding from 1976-78.

AMONG THE TOP 10 RETURNEES, BUT I'M NOT VOTING FOR THEM
BUCKY WALTERS - Got the runnerup slot in the SP bakeoff - for a year, anyway. Two best seasons were not war-related, so that helps me buy into the idea that he'd have had two more really good ones regardless. Really about a 130-140 ERA+ season or two short of my usual standard, but the pool is getting pretty thin. Seems to be grabbing away the "last pitcher" slot from Welch on occasion. No full penalty for the great defense, but it's an issue. Qualifies as "Just missed" as well, ahead of Grimes.
CHARLEY JONES - Some sympathy for the contract issues, but it's just not the same as going to war or being the 'wrong' skin color. Therefore, I see his career as too short.
GAVY CRAVATH - Hurt by reconsideration of Baker Bowl - sure he smartly took advantage, but others didn't have that opportunity. He has some Rice in him. But I disagree with the conclusion of some that MLB teams didn't consider him good enough early on - much less that they were right. The key for me is the half-season opportunity in 1908; even then he clearly was a quality major league hitter, so there's little reason not to significantly credit either 1907 or 1909-11. His work in his 30s is just outstanding, up there with some of the best ever. Comparison to Kiner is fascinating. May return to my ballot.
HUGH DUFFY - Perhaps Win Shares' most embarrassing error.
   76. Willie Mays Hayes Posted: May 06, 2007 at 08:03 PM (#2356222)
1998 Ballot:

1. Bert Blyleven - Decent peak, and quite underrated. It's one of the sabermetric truths that he belongs.
2. Gary Carter - Pretty good catcher. Good bat, decent defense.
3. Pete Browning - I'm convinced he was the 1880's Dick Allen. He belongs.
4. Hugh Duffy - I like Browning better after looking closer, but his glove makes him elite.
5. Dave Stieb - My system likes him. Good peak, maybe the best of eligible pitchers from the 20 century. He is also criminally underrated.
6. Bucky Walters - How did I miss him for so long? Underrated by the electorate. Very similar to Stieb.
7. Thurman Munson - I'm sold that he was very similar to Freehan.
8. Willie Randolph - Above average with the bat, very good glove. WARP loves him.
9. Buddy Bell - He's very close to Darrell Evans in my system, just a bit better than Nettles.
10. Graig Nettles - WARP likes him, and so do I. A poor man's Brooks Robinson.
11. Alejandro Oms - I was missing a lot on him for a while. Nice player. Moves down after re-examining DH-era hitters.
12. Rusty Staub - A mix of peak/prime career. I like him better than Beckley, but not near as much as Duffy/Browning.
13. Jack Clark - I think he's the best of the no-defense sluggers left.
14. Norm Cash - Good stick and glove at 1B, similar to Hernandez, but a bit better hitter, and a bit worse fielder.
15. Chuck Klein - Similar to Howard, but how much of it was the Baker Bowl? Better fielder, though.

16 - 20: Tommy John, Elston Howard, Phil Rizzuto, Bus Clarkson, Rollie Fingers

Required Disclosures:

Bresnahan is in the 30's. Maybe I'm missing something there, but I don't see him as a good candidate.
Bob Johnson is in the 40's. Not a fan, too many extenuating circumstances in his career.
Fingers is #20. I don't think we need to elect any relievers between Wilhelm and Gossage. Fingers was not dominant enough.
Beckley is #22, just no peak there.
Perez is #21, not sold on the defense, and didn't hit as well as he aged. Not a huge peak, either.
Redding - I've had him real high before, but I see him as an Orel Hershiser type as I've reviewed the evidence, and that slots him at 29 right now.
Downing was a nice player, and slots somewhere in the 50's.
   77. Michael Bass Posted: May 06, 2007 at 09:15 PM (#2356345)
I use WARP3 as my primary tool, with mental adjustments to downgrade (not eliminate, but downgrade) the timeline. I prefer gloves with moderate bats to bats with terrible gloves; Killebrew ise not in my PHOM, though he's in the queue. I'm peak-oriented, but my system is much more friendly to long career candidates than it once was, when those long careers stand out, or have an extended prime, if not an outstanding peaks.

PHOM this year is Carter, Blyleven, and Randolph


1. Gary Carter (PHOM 1998) - Tight race with Blyleven for #1, but the catcher bonus puts him over the top. Little interesting to say here, but I'm glad we continue to elect the members of my favorite team ever. ;)

2. Bert Blyleven (PHOM 1998) - Obvious election, though I'll observe like some others have that he's probably so underrated that he's overrated. Around the midway point of the HOM, maybe a touch below.


3. Fred Dunlap (PHOM 1926) - I'm close to alone on this one. My case for him is simple, he was one of baseball's best players for 6 straight years; I don't believe you'll find anyone who was as highly ranked in baseball as Dunlap was for even 4 or 5 straight years who we have not elected. Win shares underrates him, just as it overrates pitchers from the era. Very good hitter, great fielder from an era when fielding meant more.

4. Bob Elliot (PHOM 1968) - Never understood the lack of love for him. I have always viewed him as very close, just short of Stan Hack. This time around, I liked Hack a lot, so Elliot slots in very highly, as we're real deep into the backlog at this point.

5. Bob Johnson (PHOM 1971) - Maybe the foremost all-prime career. Gets no minor league credit despite his late start (it was investigated at the time, he was just a late bloomer). Like Elliot takes a slight minus from his raw stats for the inflated 44-45 years when they were playing with a bunch of AA guys. Clockwork hitter for 12 of his 13 years.

6. Phil Rizzuto (PHOM 1972) - Scooter is the first pure glove man on my ballot; an outstanding shortstop with an average bat (MVP level the year he was more than an average bat). Add in 3 years of war credit (which came right in the middle of his best years), and you get him to this spot.

7. Rabbit Maranville (PHOM 1976) - Rizzuto for an earlier generation. Longer career (gets nearly a year of war credit), doesn't have the one year peak of Rizzuto, and was a moderately worse hitter. But an amazing fielder forever. I'll be a big Ozzie supporter, and this guy was Ozzie-lite.

8. Bucky Walters (PHOM 1979) - Had a very nice peak just before the war, and some shoulder seasons before that and during the war.

9. Dick Redding (PHOM 1981) - Had a nice career length, and the numbers indicate a strong peak as well. Not long enough career or high enough peak to go higher than this, but enough of both to land here.

10. Dave Concepcion (PHOM 1994) - Well, I'm voting for Rizzuto and Maranville, so this vote should shock no one. Good career value, plenty of prime value, lacks Rizzuto's peak or Maranville's career, and is thus 3rd of the 3.

11. Urban Shocker (PHOM 1942) - Nice prime, nice 1920-1923 peak, all in the strong league at the time.

12. Burleigh Grimes (PHOM 1986) - Long career, wrong league, but some nice seasons along the way. He's in my view what Eppa Rixey (who I didn't like) was to most other people. Not overly enthused by him, or anyone else on this portion of the ballot (after Rizzuto I'd say), but we're deep into the backlog, both for PHOM purposes and for my ballot.

13. Dave Bancroft (PHOM 1987) - Rizzuto-esque candidate. A little more consistent bat, not quite the glove, though still real good with it. Long career, plenty of prime.

14. Bill Monroe (PHOM 1930) - Largely forgotten 2B from the first documented days of the Negro Leagues, was a solid glove a pretty good bat for a long time. In retrospect, wish we'd centered on him, rather than Grant, about whom there was very little evidence and a whole lot of guesswork.

15. Thurman Munson (PHOM 1987) - Plenty of defense, plenty of hitting, durable. I'm honestly surprised he doesn't get more support, the untimely death didn't really cut much off his career, he left behind a very strong HOM case.

16. Jake Beckley (PHOM 1931) - Yeah, I'll never hear the end of this one, but his career stands out for the era, even if he's still peakless. It's a testament to how deep we are into the backlog that he's on the ballot, but anyone who stands out like his career does is looking pretty good at this point.
17. Dizzy Dean (PHOM 1988) - I wonder how many ballots have Beckley and Dean side by side. Anyway, all peak, obviously, and enough of it to justify a ballot position if you're a peakster.
18. Lave Cross (PHOM 1988) - Back to the career, plus a touch of catching credit (even when not catching, he played a tough position and played it well).
19. Tony Perez (PHOM 1995) - Lots of career, and plenty of prime as well. Never understood the irritation many statheads expressed when he got in. Sure there are better players out, but he is not any sort of slouch by the Hall's induction standards. If he'd stayed at 3B longer, he'd be a particularly obvious HOMer.
20. Willie Randolph (PHOM 1998) - After dumping on Lynn so hard for durability concerns, I took a second look at Randolph before submitting this ballot. In the end, I feel he was significantly better than Lynn in all but 1-year peak, but I do take back my harsher words for Lynn, as I understand how one could support a candidacy of his type better now.
21. Buddy Bell (PHOM 1996) - Never though I'd be PHOMing Bell, but here we are. Nearly identical to Nettles, who is next in the queue. Neither had a great peak, but had a strong career that oozed with prime.
22. Graig Nettles (PHOM 1997) - See Bell. Maybe the best counter to the "batting average is everything" people.


Other top 10 returnees



60. Pete Browning - Not in love, no fielding, career is short for an OF.
25. Rollie Fingers - Might squeeze into my PHOM one day, but I believe the importance of relievers is vastly overblown by baseball men, and I don't feel compelled to go along with it too much. If pressed on it, I'd say Wilhelm, Gossage, and Rivera were the only HOM relievers, with a couple others (including Fingers) right on the borderline.
81. Roger Bresnahan - Never been on his bandwagon, I don't bump people to fill "gaps" in HOM positional coverage, and my view is he needs such a bump to be ballot worthy.
53. Charley Jones - Even with blacklist credit, he just didn't have a long enough career for an OF of this era. I'd rather have Dunlap a million times over.
83. Gavvy Cravath - Even with ample minor league credit, his big league career doesn't blow me away enough to get him near HOM-worthy. Weak league, friendly home park.
112. Hugh Duffy - Not a Win Shares guy, so not a fan in general.



Other newcomers

31. Dave Steib - Lower than Tiant, above Reuschel, top of the HOVG queue. Just not quite enough to justify him, I don't think.
94. Jack Clark - Obviously not close in my view, couldn't stay healthy enough in his good years to build the kind of peak he'd need.
   78. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: May 06, 2007 at 11:03 PM (#2356451)
1996 ballot

Carter, Blyleven, and Stieb make my PHOM. Bresnahan, Doyle, and GVH are on deck.

1. Gary Carter (x, PHOM) – One of the seven of eight best catchers of all-time. First Expo Homer?

2. Bert Blyleven (x, PHOM) – Just behind Carter and easily in middle tier of the HOM. Lots of K’s, 12 wins short of the HOF.

3. Dick Redding (1, PHOM) – 2nd best NeL pitcher of the dead ball era after Smokey Joe Williams and that ain’t bad. I like his peak as much as Mendez’ and he had more career. Seems to be our best backlog pitcher.

4. Hugh Duffy (2, PHOM) – Best of the 1890’s CF trio based on his superior peak. I agree with WS that Duffy deserves some credit for his team over performing not only their pythag but also their RS and RA projections. That said, I still think WS overrates Duffy’s peak for other reasons.

5. Bucky Walters (3, PHOM) – Very good pitcher with a nice peak. He was baseball’s best pitcher in 1939 and 1940, could hit a little too. I am looking over how his defense may have artificially raised his IP numbers, but I am still pretty sure that I like him more than my next few pitchers.

6. Dave Stieb (x, PHOM) – Essentially tied with Walters. Bucky is ahead on his two year peak, but I could see it go either way.

7. Elston Howard (4, PHOM) – The more I look at him the more he looks like Quincey Trouppe. Both were good hitting catchers with nice peaks who played decent portions of their careers at other positions. However, I prefer Quincey’s time at 3B to Elston’s time in the OF and Quincey played more baseball while Elston sat behind Yogi Berra.

8. Pete Browning (5, PHOM) – Quite possibly the best hitter on the board right now. However, concerns about the quality of the 1880’s AA keep him below Keller and Kiner for me. Our recent discussion on Charley Jones has made me realize that Browning has many of the same problems Jones does and so he falls a few spots.

9. Gavvy Cravath (6, PHOM) – Finally coming around on him. Great peak in the Majors and he definitely deserves MiL credit.

10. Dizzy Dean (7, PHOM) – High peak pitcher who I view as Koufax Lite. His peak wasn’t quite as good, he had a little less career, and he wasn’t even has bad of a hitter. Still ballot worthy, however.

11. Rollie Fingers (8, PHOM) – Not 100% sure what to do with him. Out of the relievers we have seen thus far I would have to agree that he is second to Wilhelm. Out of the relievers that we can look at I only prefer Wilhelm and Gossage. If he isn’t elected this year, I could seem him moving wildly as we look at more relievers. Leaps over Oms this week.

12. Alejandro Oms (9, PHOM) – I see him as similar to, but slightly better than, George Van Haltren. I also prefere Oms to HOMer Willard Brown. He had a low peak but it was a long one that accrued value in the Billy Williams/Al Kaline mold.

13. Vic Willis (10, PHOM) – First time on my ballot. He made a jump into my top 25 about 30 or 40 years ago and now I have finally decided to vote for him. He has a great DERA and he was a horse for some very good pitching staff

14. Roger Bresnahan (11) – Just like Peaches and Herb, Roger and my ballot are “Re-United and it feels So GOOD!” Best MLB catcher between 1900 and 1920. Very nice peak, even after I adjust for his time in CF.

15. Larry Doyle (12) – First vote for him ever! Doyle started in my 20, fell down into the 30’s, and now has climbed back up. He and Fox have suffered opposite fates recently as I have decided that I would rather have the bopper over the fielder in this case. However, there are concerns with both his defense and the status of turn of the century 2B.

16-20 GVH, Shocker, McGraw, Rosen, Leach
21-25 C. Jones, Newcombe, Singleton, Guerrero, Berger
26-30 Elliot, Rizzuto, Randolph, F. Howard, Tiant
31-35 Burns, Cepeda, Reuschel, Lundy, Chance
36-40 Pesky, Munson, Parker, Bancroft, Cey
41-45 Thomas, Concepcion, Quisenberry, Kaat, Perez
46-50 Monroe, Ryan, Stephens, H.Wilson, Johnson
51-55 Cicotte, Traynor, Easter, Bonds, Bando
56-60 Cash, Schang, Taylor, Clark, Wills

Required Disclosures:


Beckley – Not in my top 60 (I stop ranking players at that point) and most likely not in my top 75. I think that HOMers should have spent at least some of their career as one of the best in baseball and Beckley is not even in the top 10 in any season. His best years came not in the 10 team NL but before and after and a team with him as their best player is highly unlikely to win a pennant. Need I continue?

C. Jones – I do not give Jones full credit for his missing years as I believe that he was not some innocent that was done in by the big, bad man. There is a chance that he acted the way he did in order to sever ties with Boston, in which case the league had some reason for acting the way that it did. However, I do give him one full season of credit (which in my system is better than two half seasons)because he wasn’t the only guilty party. Even with credit there are many other questions like league strength, deviations from the mean, and extrapolating 60-80 game seasons into 162 game seasons. All of these cause some downward pressure on Jones best seasons (as well as some upward pressure on some of his worst) and pull him down a bit. I have to say that I can see no way in which he is better than Charlie Keller, Jimmy Wynn, or even Gavvy Cravath. Not the worst choice we will have made, but I think he gets a boost because he was hard done by and that really isn’t fair to other players.

Bob Johnson – I don’t really understand his candidacy. High hitting era, high standard deviation, nothing special for his era, not a great peak. He is in the 50’s only because everyone seems to think he is worthy.

Newbies:

Randolph – He is moved up due to his era and being a good mix of both bat and glove. That said, he really does lack the kind of peak that I am looking for. Sometimes I thin I should have him lower.

Clark – Nothing special for a corner outfielder, or at least for a HOM corner outfielders. Right below Bonds for me.

Guerrero – Earlier I stated that he might make my ballot. I have come down a bit from there, but he is still in my top 25. I have him very similar, in terms of value, as Wally Berger.
   79. Tiboreau Posted: May 07, 2007 at 01:37 AM (#2356643)
1. c Gary Carter
2. sp Bert Blyleven
3. 1b Luke Easter—We know that he had a long career (records of play with top Negro League teams in late ‘30s, early ‘40s and continued to play in the minors until the early ‘60s). We know he had the potential for big play (1948 and, when healthy, ’52, ’56 and ’58). What we don’t know is how well he would have played in the first half of his career, during his twenties. Yet, as we dig deeper into the backlog I find myself more willing to elect a player with a good career who showed the potential for greatness than one with a long career of merely above average play or one with short period of definite greatness during an abbreviated career.
4. cf Alejandro Oms—The Cuban Enos Slaughter: only one season over 30 WS, but 8 over 25; considering the effects of regression, had a nice peak as well as a real good career (340 WS).
5. sp Dizzy Dean—For five years he was among the greatest pitchers of all-time. Sadly, his career essentially comprises of those five years. The greatest peak among eligible pitching candidates.
6. 3b Al Rosen—Flip's candidacy is similar to Dean's: five excellent seasons without much else, his career cut short by Keltner at the front end and back injuries at opposite end.
7. sp Leroy Matlock—Had a great peak, including 26 straight wins from ’34 to ’36. In fact, according to the MLEs, Matlock’s peak (and career) was better than Dean’s. However, the difficulties of estimating season-by-season value of Negro League pitchers leads me to place Matlock a bit below Dizzy.
8. 3b John McGraw—Two great seasons surrounded by several more excellent yet injury-riddled years while playing a physically demanding (and underrepresented) position in a physically demanding era.
9. c Elston Howard—After pre-MLB credit, a similar player to Roger Bresnahan; his peak is slightly better, career slightly shorter. Howard jumps ahead Bresnahan, however, due to the fact that he was entirely a catcher during his peak, while Bresnahan spent significant time in the outfield during his best years.
10. sp Dave Stieb—The best pitcher in baseball from 1981 to 1985. While none of those years are Dizzy good, it was a real good 5-year peak in a time when it appeared more difficult to accomplish such and he was a decent pitcher for a few years after, as well.
11. rf Gavy Cravath—“He played ball, and lived his life, with a minimum amount of effort and nervous energy.” Cravath gets extra credit for his minor league performance, especially as the star of the Minneapolis Millers.
12. c Roger Bresnahan—See Elston Howard.
13. sp Urban Shocker—Jumped back on my radar screen due to Joe Dimino’s pitcher numbers and this year finally makes my ballot. Like the rest, short career but packed in quality seasons for the majority of that time. Similar to Dave Stieb, just a little less career value.
14. cf Wally Berger—Both Win Shares and WARP agree on the excellence of his peak, which was not quite Keller\Kiner level but close behind. About where I’d have the 1st Earl of Snohomish without minor league credit.
15. sp Bucky Walters—When at his best he was not only excellent pitcher but an inning eater as well. More career value than Wes Ferrell but less peak value, especially considering the decreased competition during the war.

Required Disclosures:
18. rp Rollie Fingers—The definition of a borderline HoM reliever, IMO. While he did not have the peak of other relief candidates (Hiller, Marshall), he did have a couple excellent years as well as several real good ones, which is important IMO considering the nature of relieving.
24. 1b Tony Perez—Excellent career value puts him in the consideration set. Decent peak value makes him a ballot contender. A few more years at third would’ve put him on my ballot, but as is he just falls short.
31. sp Dick Redding—While he had a nice peak, in context it loses its impressiveness, and Cannon Ball Dick played at that level in too few years spread among too many poor seasons in a long career to be near my ballot.
55. 1b Jake Beckley—I’m down on Eagle Eye for all the usual reasons, but not to the extent of some.
57. cf Pete Browning—The earliest version of the all-hit, no field candidates eligible, Browning also benefited from the easier competition of a weaker league. After Brent’s AA translations I feel more comfortable with my placement of the Gladiator.
63. lf Bob Johnson—He did have a nice prime and he does deserve a couple years credit for his play in the PCL, but according to both WS and WARP Indian Bob has peak is just not enough to make up for a short career.
   80. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: May 07, 2007 at 02:25 AM (#2356713)
By 1996, I of course mean my 1998 ballot.
   81. Paul Wendt Posted: May 07, 2007 at 05:34 AM (#2356833)
Michael Bass
16. Jake Beckley (PHOM 1931) - Yeah, I'll never hear the end of this one, but his career stands out for the era, even if he's still peakless. It's a testament to how deep we are into the backlog that he's on the ballot, but anyone who stands out like his career does is looking pretty good at this point.

Can't count to 15! Right, you'll never hear the end of that.
So who slipped onto the ballot after the ink was dry?


Tiboreau
14. cf Wally Berger—Both Win Shares and WARP agree on the excellence of his peak, which was not quite Keller\Kiner level but close behind. About where I’d have the 1st Earl of Snohomish without minor league credit.

That's just right. But Charley Jones should be somewhere #1-13 (and by the way, he's a disclosure now).

Wally Berger 1935 is Win Shares overboard, exhibit A. Berger put up a great season on very bad and very badly underperforming team. Bill James likes him anyway, more than I do. Only this year (1998), Dale Murphy bumps him out of the NBJHBA top ten centerfielders.
   82. Andrew M Posted: May 07, 2007 at 05:38 AM (#2356838)
1998 Ballot

1. Gary Carter
2. Bert Blyleven
I don’t have anything to add. Both are overwhelmingly qualified.

3. Larry Doyle. Well, someone has to be third on the ballot. Doyle has a career OPS+ of 126, and he was consistently in the NL top 10 in HRs and slugging pct. He also won an MVP award and was an 8-time STATS NL all-star. Best offensive player on the best offensive team in the league 1911-1913. By all accounts played extremely hard and captained the team for several years. Assessments of his fielding vary from average to poor. It seems odd to me that someone with 300 career SBs had such poor range factors at the beginning of his career, though, also somewhat oddly, his fielding seems to have improved over the second half of his career.

4. Tommy Bridges. He’s not really a peak or career candidate. He finished his career with just fewer than 3,000 IP and his top ERA+ season is 147. In his favor, he’s probably missing 360 or so innings from 1944 and 45, and he had six seasons in which his ERA+ was between 140 and 147 (and ten seasons in which he was in the top 10 in the AL.) And while he wasn’t much of a workhorse, he did finish in the top 10 in innings five times.

5. Bob Johnson. Career OPS+ 138, 10 times in AL top 10. Comparable to Medwick and Averill in the lower tier of HoM OFs.

6. Tony Perez. Separates himself from the 1B pack by having a pretty good glove at 3B for 5 full seasons. Hung around long enough to accumulate almost 11,000 PAs, but his rate numbers would look better had he retired at age 35.

7. Luis Tiant
8. Dick Redding
Both of these guys are perfect pitchers for the prime voter. The best pitcher in the league at their best and decent career length. Bucky Walters is another guy in this category, as is Dave Stieb.

9. Dave Bancroft. Great glove, above average hitter, walked a lot. Had some durability issues
10. Phil Rizzuto. Great glove, probably not as good a hitter as Bancroft. Missing essentially 4 seasons at age 25-28.
11. Vern Stephens. Not as good a glove as the two guys above, but a much better hitter. Declined quickly at age 30, but before that had half a dozen seasons in the top 5 in HRs and total bases. Decent glove. Also did surprisingly well in MVP voting, which surprised me.

12. Tommy John. I’m surprised how little support he gets when we’ve been pretty generous to long career pitchers. Too many innings of above-average to good pitching to ignore. Also, by reputation, an excellent fielder.

13. Bucky Walters. See comments above. Excellent hitter and fielder for a pitcher.

14. George J. Burns. Rarely missed a game, got on base a lot, could field and run, had 3 MVP caliber seasons (1914, 1917, 1919) and averaged close to 27 Win Shares a season for a decade. I’ve never been convinced Roush was the better player.

15. Roger Bresnahan. A tough player to put in a modern context. 1,000 games behind the plate was obviously much more difficult 100 years ago. Career OBP .57 higher than league average is good for a catcher in any era.

Next 10 (more or less in order)
Tommie Leach
Ken Singleton
Sal Bando
Dave Stieb
Willie Randolph
Alejandro Oms
Orlando Cepeda or Norm Cash or Jake Beckley
Geo. Van Haltren
Addie Joss
Ernie Lombardi


Required Disclosures:
Jake Beckley. After goodness knows how many ballots, I am warming up to Beckley. The in-out line that separates him from Hernandez, Terry, and Sisler is getting harder for me to see.

Rollie Fingers. I guess like relief pitchers less than most voters, and I’m not sure I would rank Fingers as high as others even among relief pitchers.

Pete Browning. Too many questions/doubts.
   83. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: May 07, 2007 at 11:48 AM (#2356877)
32 ballots tallied so far. Still missing ballots from: SWW, Jeff M, EricC, Mike Webber, James Newburg, Don F, Al Peterson, DavidFoss, DanG, mulder and scully, Brent, Trevor P., Chris Cobb, Ken Fischer, Devin McCullen, Esteban Rivera, Patrick W, Max Parkinson, KJOK, the Commish, Chris Fluit, jwinfrey, Tom D, Carl Goetz, Dan Rosenheck and dzop.

Since he never came back, NeverJustaGame has been taken off the list.

The election ends at 8 PM EDT. Results will be posted at 10. Since it's an extremely close election for the third spot, no ballots will be accepted after the deadline.
   84. Al Peterson Posted: May 07, 2007 at 12:58 PM (#2356929)
1998 ballot. Couple nice guys on top, then it thins out again. The system used for my ranking entails a little bit of everything: WS, WARP, OPS+/ERA+, positional adjustments, even some contemporary opinion. Once that is assembled I try and make other changes to metrics when deemed fit. My hope by adding in all this material is to get the most complete picture, a composite worthy player. The results of this work tend to favor prime/peak players over career types but that is not 100% tried and true.

1. Bert Blyleven (-). He needs none of our tears for not making the Hall of Fame yet. He’s made a decent living in a kid’s game. He’ll get there someday but first he’ll walk into the HOM.

2. Gary Carter (-). Sure he played to the press but he also played some ball really well.

3. Dick Redding (1). Career was long – decent peak along the way. Outstanding fastball in his day according to James/Neyer book. So he didn’t get into the Hall of Fame; maybe the information collected by HOF committee wasn’t pertinent to Redding’s prime years. He deserves some WWI credit, thus patching up a bald spot in his prime years as 1918 and 1919 were affected.

4. Norm Cash (2). Count me as one who sees him as a viable candidate. Maybe the Tigers used him optimally by sitting him vs leftys. Still did a lot of good things. You can’t throw away his peak year even though it stands out from the rest of his work.

5. Tommy Leach (3). Combination hot corner/centerfielder could field a little, hit a little. Second all-time in inside-the-park home runs to Wahoo Sam Crawford. Someone else stated he was uniquely valuable in his particular era and I agree he meant more in the particular era he performed in.

6. Bobby Bonds (4). Even with the constant trades, drinking problem and whatnot his combination of speed/power made him a very valuable player. He wasn’t the next Mays, or as good as his son. Five tools on display.

7. Reggie Smith (5). The other Reggie wasn’t half bad. Played some CF before moving down the defensive spectrum, hitting along the way. Not real durable but lots of value when in the lineup. Should we add in the year in Japan at the end of his career? I don’t currently.

8. Roger Bresnahan (6). Work was good behind the plate, also shagged some flies some years. This was in centerfield so he must have been somewhat athletic out there. Fills a short gap during the turn of the century where we have lacked a backstop.

9. Tony Mullane (7). Old time pitcher who threw plenty well, a good hitter to boot. Had some playing time issues since he missed seasons due to being blacklisted. He’s amongst the best of his era when accounting for the time outside of baseball due to conflicts with different leagues. Goes on the all-Nickname team as well.

10. Bob Johnson (8). His peak might not be as high as others but at the same time for 13 years in the majors he has the highest floor of anyone. By floor I mean what can we reasonably expect from him in terms of performance. During those 13 years you knew exactly what you got with Bob Johnson – nothing less, rarely more. I guess my system rewards consistency as well as greatness. WARP numbers like him, WS not so much. Over his career his teams underperformed Pythag W-L by 15 games so he loses some Win Shares there.

I’m afraid he’s between the two voting factions. He doesn’t have the peak but was effective longer that the high peak, short career players. He doesn’t have the career but was at a higher production level than the low peak, long career players. Either way, he stacks up nicely compared to the other LFs hanging around.

Indian Bob got a late start (one deserving of 1-2 years of MiL credit), played on bad teams in ballparks that favored pitchers, and got left out of post-war ML baseball while he was still doing well at age 39. 10 years of top 10 performances in OPS+, 106.6 WARP1 for 13 years with no padding on the front or back end.

I guess they were right. While others shot to stardom, collected an MVP, and faded from sight, along rolled Bob Johnson, punching the time clock with excellence far from the spotlight. Forgotten while playing, lost in history. Somewhere Joe Medwick laughs at the fact he got in while his contemporary remains in limbo.

11. Willie Randolph (-). The last thing I think we need is another Yankee voted in but you try to put team affiliation out of this. Hence he grabs a ballot spot. Nice long career for a 2nd basemen, someone who did many things well without ever doing that one thing at an other-worldly level. I have him much better than where Fox was – he added to a nice defense better onbase skills and decent speed on the bases.

12. Mickey Welch (9). Another one of those annoying 300 game winners. Was it due to luck, run support, bad opponents? Still a feat to accomplish, sometimes I need to remind myself that and not totally overlook Smilin’ Mickey.

13. Alejandro Oms (11). The body of work included Negro and Latin American play. Another career lost in translation since the Cuban time can be tricky to compute.

14. Jake Beckley (12). I want to say something substantial about him, add some insight no one else has. Yeah, not really happening. Very good, very long, he’s hardly the worst player out there. And if playing that long was so easy than everyone would have done it.

15. Carl Mays (14). Good hitting pitcher, aided by run support at high levels. Even with docking for that we’re talking about a pretty good hurler.

16-20: Walters, Browning, Poles, Bell, Ryan
21-25: Fingers, C Jones, Clarkson, Bancroft, Willis
26-30: Byrd, Stieb, Perez, J Clark, Rizzuto
31-35: Easter, Duffy, Shocker, Tiant, Nettles
36-40: Brock, Ben Taylor, Luque, Grimes, Cey
41-45: Cedeno, Cicotte, Doyle, Tenace, T John
46-50: Sutter, Munson, F Jones, Elliott, Lundy

Top 10 Returnees: Walters (#16), Browning (#17), Charley Jones (#22), Fingers (#21), Cravath (not top 50), Duffy (#32). Walters bumped out of top 15 by the new class. Browning has the hitting going for him, will probably get back a ballot spot shortly. Charley Jones gets some of that blacklisted credit, just not enough. Fingers is the best reliever available but not so valuable as long term starters. Cravath will get a fresh look over the next couple of weeks. Does have a nice peak but I tend not to be too peak oriented. Duffy’s great 1894 sticks out but the rest of the body of work doesn’t quite push him high enough.

New guys: Dave Stieb (#27) and his run through the 80s was impressive. Threw some nasty pitches. I see a lot of Walters like value in there. Jack Clark did surprisingly well (#29). Would have been fun to see in different parks than Candlestick and Busch. Guerrero and the rest, thanks for providing baseball for fans to watch.
   85. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: May 07, 2007 at 01:09 PM (#2356943)
Wow, lots of folks still in the gloamin'.
   86. Esteban Rivera Posted: May 07, 2007 at 01:43 PM (#2356986)
1998 Ballot:

After careful consideration, only Carter and Blyleven make my ballot from this year's newbies.

1. Gary Carter – When you are in the top 10 at you position all-time, you are an easy election.

2. Bert Blyleven – Edged by Carter for being the more dominant player at his position.

3. Pete Browning - Was a heck of a hitter and did it under tremendous duress. I buy the "greatness can't take full advantage off lower competition" idea. Proved he could hold his own in the Player's League.

4. Hugh Duffy - His credentials are that he was for a time one of the best players and he produced during the 90's. Was an outstanding defensive outfielder.

5. Charley Jones – Fantastic hitter from the 19th century. Gets some credit for blacklisting from me.

6. Roger Bresnahan - I believe his versatility is a major plus in his case. I can understand not giving him credit if you think his playing time at other positions was worthless but when he was an outfielder he was one of the best ones in the league.

7. Bill Monroe - Seems to be one of the best second basemen of his time.

8. Rollie Fingers – Given some post-season credit. His career taken all together is around the bubble.

9. Tony Perez - See him similar to Beckley in terms of value. His prime/career value is pretty good.

10. Jake Beckley - The career man. What he accomplished during his career is enough to offset the lack of peak, so to speak.

11. Mickey Welch - The 300 game winner. The discussion of the past couple of “years” has made me realize that Welch should be a HOMer. Is not that far behind Keefe.

12. Bob Johnson – Have been overlooking Indian Bob. PCL credit counterbalances any war discounts.

13. Vic Willis –Blame the cohort analysis for making me take another look at Vic.

14. Bob Elliott – The post someone made about holding his outfield time against him was true in my case. Not as much an outfielder as I had previously thought.

15. Burleigh Grimes - Has enough big seasons and career bulk to edge him over other similar candidates.

Not on ballot but made Top 10:

Bucky Walters – Actually not a bad candidate but the breaks don’t go his way (war years, sterling defenses) and are enough to keep him off my ballot.

Dick Redding – Too much uncertainty surrounding him to put him on my ballot.
   87. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: May 07, 2007 at 01:45 PM (#2356989)
Wow, lots of folks still in the gloamin'.


I sent an e-mail to everyone on the list, Eric (though jwinfrey's came back as returned mail).
   88. Chris Fluit Posted: May 07, 2007 at 02:46 PM (#2357061)
Just got back home from nearly a month abroad so I won't be doing much in the way of comments this time around though I will join an old conversation and say that I'm currently grateful for the three-week cycle.

1. Bert Blyleven, P (n/e). I find it ridiculous that so many of the arguments for keeping him out of the HoF center on the lack of praise during his career by way of Cy Young voting and All-Star nods. The fact that he was undervalued and unappreciated at the time isn't justification to continue to undervalue him today. Comfortably in the group with Niekro, Jenkins, Perry and Carlton.
2. Gary Carter, C (n/e). Easily the best catcher on the ballot.

3. Dick Redding, P (2). At the top of the backlog once again.
4. Lou Brock, LF (3). Did not expect to be one of Brock's biggest supporters.
5. Alejandro Oms, CF (4). Hard to put Oms' estimated numbers ahead of Brock's actual numbers.
6. Burleigh Grimes, P (5). Not a peakless pitcher though his best years did not come consecutively.
7. Hugh Duffy, CF (6). Not just the Triple Crown year.
8. Don Newcombe, P (7). Glad to see Newk's support is increasing.
9. Orlando Cepeda, 1B (8). Bounced around my ballot for a bit but has now settled in behind Newcombe.
10. Luis Aparicio, SS (9). Not the only great glove candidate at short, but I have him as the best.
11. Jim Rice, LF (10). Not a good hitting coach, but a monster hitter for a time.
12. Rollie Fingers, RP (11). Probably won't get into the HoM before Gossage, but still deserves to get there eventually.
13. Jake Beckley, 1B (12). Not opposed to long career candidates in the HoM.
14. Vic Willis, P (13). Late to the bandwagon, but hopefully not too late.
15. Pie Traynor, 3B (14). Holds on for now, but the big class of '99 will knock him off ballot next time.

Necessary Disclosures:
Bucky Walters: not enough outside of the peak, I prefer both Bridges and Gomez
Pete Browning: made my ballot a couple of elections ago but fell back after a closer comparison with the now elected Roush
Roger Bresnahan: currently 25th, could move up
Bob Johnson: just outside my top 30 which is probably too low

New Eligibles:
Willie Randolph: top five at his position, could be top three
Dave Stieb: looks like he belongs based on first half of his career but fell off too much too soon, still makes the top ten of eligible MLB starting pitchers
   89. Ken Fischer Posted: May 07, 2007 at 02:53 PM (#2357065)
1998 Ballot

1-Bert Blyleven 339 WS
To me a no-brainer…his top 10 comps include Roberts, Seaver & Carlton. Playing for some bad teams and not getting 300 wins will not keep Bert out of the HOM.

2-Gary Carter 337 WS
Carter is one of the top 10 catchers of all-time. He just got lost in Montreal. He starred as a football quarterback, basketball guard and baseball catcher at Sunny Hills High in Fullerton, CA. A friend of mine had his best basketball game in high school when he had to guard Carter. I guess my friend was motivated. But basketball wasn’t Carter’s best sport!

3-Dick Redding
Is the Cannonball getting close! He is ranked by many as one of the top pitchers of the pre-Negro League days.

4-George Van Haltren 344 WS
His numbers deserve the high ranking. I know…I’m a Van diehard…GVH and Stephens. I just can’t drop them down. They belong.

5-Mickey Welch 354 WS
How can we forget that 1885 season!

6-Carl Mays 256 WS
256 win shares in an offense dominated era is impressive.

7-Craig Nettles 321 WS
Great plays on the big stage. His low career batting average keeps him out of the other hall. He probably stayed around 3 years too long.

8-Vern Stephens 265 WS
His comps are Doerr & Lazzeri but I believe he was better. A forerunner of the modern power hitting shortstop.

9-Wally Schang 245 WS
He played for several flag winners. Schang had great plate discipline. At the age of 39 he led the AL in HBP.

10-Rollie Fingers 188 WS
Best reliever on the ballot.

11-Bob Johnson 287 WS
A raw deal…Indian Bob will forever be hurt by playing for mostly bad teams and the overlapping eras he played in (Live Ball & War Years). A solid performer year after year…he’s deserves a good look.

12-Jake Beckley 318 WS
Like his career value. Connor, Crawford and O’Rourke and Clarke are all comps.

13-Pete Browning 225 WS
A great Players League year shows Pete belongs.

14-Tony Perez 349 WS
Perhaps he’s overlooked because of all those other Reds of the 70s. He piled up a lot of numbers. He makes it on my ballot because of his longevity.

15- Lou Brock 348 WS
Brock has career value and was a great World Series performer.


Not listed

Bresnahan: short career…has almost as many years as a part-timer as he has as a regular

Walters: I need to take another look…his high ERAs in the 30s and the war years have kept him off my ballot…but that doesn’t keep Stephens off my ballot…so I’ll give Bucky a second look next time.
   90. DavidFoss Posted: May 07, 2007 at 03:10 PM (#2357087)
Two easy newbies this week and only one on my ballot was induceted last week. That makes for a relatively easy ballot.

1998 Ballot

1. Bert Blyleven -- Long career (5000 IP) good rate stats (118 ERA+). He may be being overrated in the push to get him into Coop, but nowhere near borderline and easily qualified.
2. Gary Carter -- Easy pick here. It would have been fun to see Fisk & Carter head to head on the same ballot.
3. Gavvy Cravath -- Top-notch corner OF-er of the 1910s. With MLE credit, he is at least on par with guys like Kiner.
4. John McGraw -- Great high-OBP 3B of the 1890s.
5. Larry Doyle -- MVP deadball second baseman. Position player cornerstone of the 1911-13 Giants pennant dynasty. Hit like an OF-er.
6. Dick Redding -- Great fireballer of the 1910s. His weak 1920s NeL numbers should not take away from his fine early play. I don't know why his support hasn't held up.
7. Norm Cash -- Took another look at him. I'm like him better than Keith Hernandez.
8. Roger Bresnahan -- High OBP C-OF of the 1900s. Playing time and positional classification issues have kept him out of the HOM so far.
9. Rollie Fingers -- Best reliever eligible.
10. Bob Elliott -- Excellent 3B of the 40s and early 1950s.
11. Mickey Welch -- Sure he was overrated, but we've been inducting guys like him from other eras.
12. Frank Chance -- Great hitter for great Cubs teams. Best non-Wagner hitter in the NL for several years.
13. Frank Howard -- Gets a boost from the post-expansion re-eval. This guy could really mash.
14. Charley Jones -- Unfairly blacklisted early hitting star.
15. Pete Browning -- Another short-career high peak hitter. These guys used to be just off my ballot, but they've percolated into points positions.
16-20. Beckley, Lombardi, Rosen, BJohnson, Nettles,
21-25. Leach, Bando, Cepeda, TJohn, Randolph
26-30. Cey, Tiant, TPerez, Singleton, Brock,
31-35. Staub, Stieb, Walters, Kaat, Parker
   91. DanG Posted: May 07, 2007 at 04:15 PM (#2357178)
My “system”? Emphasizes prime and career; give me steady excellence over a fluke year or two or three. Seeing no need to reinvent the wheel, I look at win shares and WARP and rely on the interpretations of these by other analysts. IMO, our group overvalues peak; I like guys who play. There’s also a tendency here to cut and run from well-seasoned candidates. Finally, I don’t give any consecutive-season bonus; value is value.

My ballot, Teddy Bears and all. My #2 and #4 were elected. A strong class in 1998 with shoo-ins Carter and Blyleven, as well as Stieb and Randolph. Then the super class of 1999: Brett-Yount-Fisk-Ryan-Murphy-Tanana. The big name in 2000 is Goose. In 2001, Winfield and Whitaker stroll in the doors of the HoM while Puckett, Parrish and Mattingly take on the backlog.

1) Gary Carter – Not really sure if he was better than Bly; both are overwhelmingly qualified.

2) Bert Blyleven – How many HOF pitchers played most of their career with bad teams? Any?

3) Tony Perez (1,1,2) – Even-steven with Staub in win shares, but drubs Rusty in WARP3; in 12-year weighted prime Perez beats him 8.41 to 7.43. Career lovers delight with enough peak to make him great.

4) George Van Haltren (3,3,4) – We’ve now elected 15 players who were behind him in 1970. Huh? Were we so wrong about him for 50+ elections? No, we’re wrong now. In seven years, 1982 to 1989, he went from the #6 unelected player to #12. Now in his 90th year eligible. Pennants Added study shows him well. He excelled in the contraction years 1892-1900; he had high SB totals (usually 35-40 in his prime years), which I believe was more important pre-1920; he was a mainly a centerfielder (~71.7% of his non-pitching games vs. ~47.6% for Ryan and 61.5% for Wynn), Ryan (and Duffy) actually played more corner outfield. Players with most stolen bases 1891-1900:
1—660 B. Hamilton
2—443 G. Van Haltren

Two non-HoMers here, Players with 3400 times on base 1871-1909:
1—4433 C. Anson
2—3954 J. Burkett
3—3729 J. Beckley
4—3661 B. Dahlen
5—3605 G. Davis
6—3579 W. Keeler
7—3507 R. Connor
8—3438 G. Van Haltren
9—3434 B. Hamilton
10—3431 E. Delahanty

5) Tommy Leach (5,5,6) – Had his highest finish since 1945; his candidacy’s “not dead yet”. I think it’s what Bill James once said, that all-around players get overlooked, while specialists get overrated; voters like that one area of dominance. Modern comp to, but just a bit behind, Craig Biggio, he could beat you in many ways. Longevity, defense and speed, more important in that era, rate him above Groh. Versatility is a plus; it should not be assumed that any typical thirdbaseman of the era could have successfully handled CF. Had a better peak than Bobby Wallace, but his career was a couple years shorter and he had just a little less defensive value. Among OFers with 750 games 1905-14, he is 2nd in PO/G (behind Speaker) and 2nd in FA (behind Clarke). <u>Leaders in Total Bases, 1901-10</u>:
1—2606 H. Wagner
2—2527 S. Crawford
3—2410 N. Lajoie
4—2128 H. Davis
5—2052 C. Seymour
6—1973 T. Leach
7—1933 F. Clarke
8—1911 J. Sheckard
9—1823 G. Beaumont
10—1783 B. Wallace

Not bad for a “glove”.

6) Jake Beckley (6,6,7) - We’ve now elected 10 players who were behind him in 1977. In 35 HoM elections JB is the leading unelected player. He’s Joe Start, but without a peak and retired four years sooner. Grade B fielder, won four WS GG. The many triples were the product of a strange park in Pittsburgh, as his other stats do not suggest good foot speed. Top 15 seasons in win shares for Beckley and the other long-career first basemen of his era; after the top two years JB gradually blows them all away:
23-21-21-20-19/19-18-18-18-17/17-17-16-16-15 J. Beckley
31-26-21-21-19/19-18-17-17-14/13-10—8—2—1 H. Davis
25-25-22-21-19/19-17-17-17-15/12—9—9—7—7 F. Tenney
24-22-21-20-16/14-13-13-12-11/11—6—0—0—0 D. McGann
30-20-17-17-16/13-12-11-11-10/09—8—2—0—0 T. Tucker
19-18-17-17-17/12-12-10-10-10/09—9—9—4—2 J. Doyle

7) Burleigh Grimes (7,8,9) – Comparable to E. Wynn. Has the heft I like in a career. Pitchers with 3800+ IP, 1916-75. The top ten are all HoMers, nearly:

1—5244 W. Spahn
2—4689 R. Roberts
3—4564 E. Wynn
4—4344 R. Ruffing

5—4180 B. Grimes
6—4161 T. Lyons
7—3941 L. Grove
8—3897 E. Rixey
9—3884 B. Gibson
10—3827 B. Feller


8) Rusty Staub (8,9,10) – He’s the Grimes of position players. Ranks #36 all-time in Times On Base; #59 in Total Bases, just ahead of some guy named Jake. Edges Brock in win shares, blows him away in WARP3. Players with OBP of .380+, 1967-76, 3500+ PA:
1—.407 J. Morgan
2—.399 C. Yastrzemski
3—.397 W. McCovey
4—.394 P. Rose
5—.392 K. Singleton
6—.389 F. Robinson
7—.386 R. Carew
8—.386 R. Staub
9—.385 H. Killebrew
10—.381 D. Allen

9) Roger Bresnahan (9,10,11) – A couple more voters now (15) have high regard for The Duke of Tralee as he finished in the top ten for the third time in 77 years. Versatility should be a bonus, not a demerit. How many other catchers could have been pulled out from behind the plate to be an all-star in centerfield? Could move higher, but I really like guys who play. Played half his teams’ games in only 11 seasons, averaging 71% of team games in those years. Still, his offensive production towers over other catchers of his era, so he deserves a vote. Defense only C+. Players with OBP over .390, 1903-14, 3100+ PA:
1—.424 T. Cobb
2—.420 E. Collins
3—.413 T. Speaker
4—.401 R. Bresnahan
5—.400 H. Wagner
6—.399 F. Chance
7—.396 R. Thomas

10) Jimmy Ryan (10,11,12) – Browning had one skill; Ryan could do it all. As a SNT he finished ahead of seven HoMers; the order in the teens was Duffy-Ryan-GVH-Beckley. Usually trailing those guys were Caruthers-Pearce-Pike-Jennings-Griffith-Childs. Most extra-base hits, ten-year period 1876-1903:
632 1893-02 E. Delahanty
550 1887-96 S. Thompson
549 1886-95 R. Connor
542 1883-92 D. Brouthers
525 1883-92 H. Stovey
487 1890-99 J. Beckley
481 1893-02 J. Kelley
458 1888-97 J. Ryan
453 1888-97 M. Tiernan
Most outfielder Assists, 1876-1918
1—375 J. Ryan
2—348 G. VanHaltren
3—348 Tom Brown
4—307 J. Sheckard
5—289 O. Shaffer
6—285 K. Kelly
7—283 S. Thompson

11) Graig Nettles (11,12,14) – Another looonggg career 1970’s star. James slots him behind Boyer, ahead of Traynor, which seems about right. For the 1970’s he was #6 in HR and #10 in RBI, not bad for a “glove”. I think he still holds the AL record for HR at 3B; 2nd all-time in games at 3B.

12) Rollie Fingers (12,13,15) – Definitely a bubble candidate. It all depends on what angle you view him from. One of four pitchers with 1500 relief IP, there may never be another. OK, so maybe he’s the Grimes of RP’s.

13) Rabbit Maranville (13,14,--) – Pulling a couple of my old Lost Causes out of the backlog. Every career voter should have him on their radar. WARP1 is 134.5, even better than Beckley’s 116.0 (high of 8.0). That includes four years better than 10.0. Plus he’s due nearly a year of war credit, which adds another 8.0 WARP1. Career WARP3 is 105.5, easily in HoMer country. Career win shares, with war credit and adjusted to 162 games, is 339, including 124 in his top five seasons.

14) Wally Schang (14,15,--) – There’s not a dime’s worth of difference between him and Bresnahan, so he’s still on the radar. Players with OBP of .390+, 1915-29, 5600+ PA:
1—.475 B. Ruth
2—.439 T. Cobb
3—.436 R. Hornsby
4—.435 T. Speaker
5—.427 E. Collins
6—.412 H. Heilmann
7—.399 J. Sewell
8—.398 W. Schang
9—.393 K. Williams

15) Willie Randolph – better than Fox, who I had just off my ballot. As a “career voter”, I think he has the numbers.

Top tenners off ballot:

Bucky Walters – Falls off. Think I might’ve had him a tad overrated.

If we elect Browning it will be a mistake. Nice peak in a very weak league. I don’t believe that fielding value is at all well measured pre-1893, so I’m very wary of electing any more bats from that era.

Redding is a good candidate if you put total faith in the translations showing a stratospheric peak.

Bob Johnson looks just like a lot of other guys. Career not that long, peak not that high, just a bat.
   92. Mike Webber Posted: May 07, 2007 at 04:40 PM (#2357199)
Using Win Shares, positional balancing, and HooDoo.

1) GARY CARTER 337 Win Shares, four MVP type season, 9 seasons 20+ Win Shares.
2) BERT BLYLEVEN 339 Win Shares, one MVP type season, 9 seasons 20+ Win Shares. I think Carter is one of the top 10 catchers of all-time, while Blyleven is “only” between 40 and 60 all-time among pitchers, so I give Carter the nod in very tight race.
3) ROGER BRESNAHAN 231 Win Share, one MVP type season, 4 seasons 20+ Win Shares. Best catcher of his era. Like Leach a combo-position player that is hard to sum up what his contributions were, because he doesn’t nest into one position.
4) TOMMY LEACH – 328 Win Shares, only one MVP type season, 8 seasons 20+ Win Shares. Good peak, excellent defensive player at third and in centerfield.
5) PHIL RIZZUTO – 231 Win Shares, one MVP type seasons, 7 seasons 20+ Win Shares. With a conservative 60 or so win shares during the war, I move him ahead of Sewell. Same arguments as Nellie Fox, only with a 3-year hole in his career at ages 25 to 27, plus a bad return to MLB in 1946.
6) George Van Haltren Huge Career, plus short schedule. Even clipping his pitching credit.
7) NORM CASH 315 Win Shares, only one MVP type season, 8 seasons 20+ Win Shares. Discussion last week comparing Cepeda to Cash convinced me Cash was better.
8) ALE OMS Based on the info we have I would consider him just above the in/out line for outfielders.
9) SAL BANDO - 283 Win Shares, two MVP type seasons, 9 seasons 20+ Win Shares. I believe he was better than Ken Boyer, but his home parks helped disguise it. The big seasons are what puts him ahead of Boyer.
10) LOU BROCK – 348 Win Shares, three MVP type seasons, 11 straight seasons 20+ Win Shares. As a career voter I’ll put him here. Batting leadoff he had great opportunity to rack up counting stats.
11) WILLIE RANDOLPH 312 Win Shares, one MVP type seasons, 9 seasons 20+ Win Shares. Many of the same qualities of Lou Brock though his lack of power not as big problem at second base.
12) TONY PEREZ 349 Win Shares, three MVP type seasons, 8 seasons 20+ Win Shares. Hits all my targets for a ballot candidate, long career, big seasons, a top 25 player at his position.
13) KEN SINGLETON 302 win shares, 3 mvp type seasons, 7 20+ win share seasons. Big Seasons sneak him onto the bottom of my ballot.
14) CARL MAYS 256 Win Shares, 2 MVP type seasons, 8 20 + Win share seasons
15) Dave Stieb 210 Win Shares, 0 MVP type seasons, 4 20 + Win share seasons.


Disclosures:

Jack Clark – Right Field is just brutal, he is about 30th in right field, which keeps him off ballot.

Jake Beckley – I like Perez and Cepeda better, but I like Beckley better than Cash.

Bucky Walters – may be penalizing his WW2 pitching too much. It is a toss up between Stieb and Walters for me.

Cannon Ball Redding – Have waivered on him, I have voted for him in the past.

Pete Browning – Heck of a hitter, short seasons, suspect league, suspect fielding, suspect teammate.

Rollie Fingers – not convinced that there is enough leverage available to make his career and peak values big enough to put him on the ballot. I have been thinking about what the minimum amount of career win shares it would take to make my ballot. Koufax has the fewest of any player I have voted for, 194 and he had 3 MVP type seasons.

Bob Johnson - Like Clark above, competition is brutal at his position. I personally think Brock has a much better argument for a ballot spot.
   93. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: May 07, 2007 at 05:50 PM (#2357272)
Since some people asked us to include what we consider . . . I try to look at it all. I'm a career voter mostly - not because I have any bias towards it, but just because the numbers (and every study I've ever seen) tell me that peaks are overrated and 5+5 is only about 10-15% less valuable than 10+0.

I give full war credit, and I think it's a major mistake not to when comparing players across eras. My biggest regret on this project is that we didn't require all voters to give war credit like we did with Negro League credit. I see no difference, both were a circumstance of the player's birthday that was beyond his control. I also follow similar philosophy on strikes. I think it's a cop out to say we don't know so it's a zero. If a guy was a 25 WS a year player before and after the war, a zero is a much bigger mistake than giving him three 25s. As far as injury you just credit a guy based on his playing time before and after the war. There's no reason to assume he would have been any more (or less) injury prone during those years.

I'll give minor league credit for players trapped - once they've had a 'here I am, let me play!' season.

Of late I've been much more hands on in rating the pitchers than the position players. I'm very confident in my pitcher rankings. My position player rankings I'm less confident in, but there are only so many hours in the day, and because of that you'll see more position players moving around from week to week than pitchers.

1. Gary Carter C (n/e) - I've got him a little higher than Hartnett and Cochrane. Just an unbelievable player. Only behind Berra, Dickey, Bench and Fisk for me among MLB catchers through 1998.

2. Bert Blyleven SP (n/e) - Worst case, he's pretty comparable to Ted Lyons, in terms of a long effective career, without a superstar peak. Right in there with Carlton, Niekro, Roberts, Perry, Ryan, Lyons, Sutton, Jenkins and Wynn. I slot him just above Perry and below Kid Nichols.

3. Rick Reuschel SP (2) - This ranking surprises me a great deal. It's one thing to 'discover' an Ezra Sutton (I mean as a group, not that I discovered him first or anything) who played 130 years ago. But Rick Reuschel was there, right before my very eyes. He pitched in the World Series for my favorite team when I was turning 9 years old. And I never had a clue he was this good.

My Pennants Added system, which account for fielding support, parks, bullpen support, etc.; shows him as the #30 pitcher eligible, right behind Dazzy Vance, Ed Walsh and Amos Rusie, and ahead of Jim Bunning, Sandy Koufax and Juan Marichal.

He isn't peakless either. His 1977 was every bit as valuable as Bunning's 1966. Bunning definitely has him beat in years 2-5, but Reuschel makes it up with more quality in the back end. I get them essentially equal, Reuschel was a little better inning for inning, Bunning had a higher peak, but in the end they even out. I have Reuschel with a 115 DRA+ over 3745 tIP, Bunning was 113 over 3739 tIP. This is where I would have ranked Bunning, who sailed into the Hall of Merit, I have no issue putting Reuschel here.

Even when I take my numbers, but filter them through a Bill James-type NHBA scoring system (that heavily focuses on peak), Reuschel still comes out as the #46 starter eligible, in a group with guys like Jim Palmer, Noodles Hahn, Eddie Rommel, Tex Hughson, Clark Griffith and Whitey Ford. Hahn, Rommel and Hughson all had very nice peaks.

Using a JAWS scoring system, he comes out as the #35 starter, in a group with Wes Ferrell, Jack Quinn, Palmer, Stan Coveleski, Red Faber and Urban Shocker.

I am saying that Reuschel was every bit as good as the Jims, Palmer and Bunning. The only difference between Palmer and Reuschel is park and defense. Reuschel's 1977 was better than any season Palmer had. Palmer, like Bunning was better than Reuschel in the 2-5 best seasons, but by less than a win a year, and over the course of their careers, Reuschel was better, 115 DRA+ to Palmer's 113 (in a similar number of innings, Palmer had 3781 tIP. He had the one great year, and was very good from 1973-81 and 1985, 1987-89. That's a record that not a lot of pitchers can match.

4. Jack Quinn SP (4) - I'm giving him credit for 1916-18 where he was pitching (quite well) in the PCL after the Federal League went belly-up. He gets a big leverage bonus for his nearly 800 IP of relief work at a LI of 1.26. Without any PCL credit I still have him between Bridges and Grimes.

5. Willie Randolph (n/e) - I have him very slightly ahead of Sandberg. He scores a 98.6 in my system - Sandberg gets a 95.8, Jeff Kent was at 87.0 through 2005, Lou Whitaker scores 113.9, Bobby Grich 120.1. Just to give some benchmarks. Among non 2B with a similar score we have elected everyone. Willie McCovey scores 98.7, Ernie Banks 96.0. Dave Concepcion scores 77.7. I'm comfortable placing Randolph here, especially in light of our election of Nellie Fox, who scored 81.8.

6. Jake Beckley 1B (5) - I still fully endorse his election. A smidge below Rafael Palmeiro, they were basically the same player, though Palmeiro was a little bit better with the stick, 1B was much tougher in Beckley's day. The average 1B had just a .531 OWP during his career, Beckley was .596, played good, though not great defense (+67 FRAA according to WARP) and played for nearly 20 years. The Ted Lyons, Red Faber or Red Ruffing of 1B. There's just so much career value here. Too much to ignore.

7. Rollie Fingers RP (6) - Very easily the number 3 reliever we've seen through 1990, behind only Wilhelm and Gossage, way ahead of Sutter. He's the best I've found at preventing inherited runners from scoring. He was as leveraged as high as just about anyone. His peak is only beaten by Gossage (and Hiller if you call 1-year a peak). ERA+ severely understates how much he prevented runs from scoring, when I adjust for everything, I get his DRA+ at 124. His career was as long as any reliever except for Wilhelm. He's a laughably easy choice IMO, unless you think we should only have 1 or 2 relievers.

8. Tommy John SP (7) - Tons of career value. I would probably be sick to my stomach if Jim Kaat (who did very well in the Veteran's Committee balloting this year) got in and John did not. On the surface (career W-L) they appear similar, but when you adjust for everything, they aren't close. I have John as similar to, but better than Burleigh Grimes - about 800 more translated IP, at a 106 rate instead of a 104 rate. That's more than enough to offset Grimes peak edge. I get John somewhere between Eppa Rixey/Red Faber and Grimes on the continuum. He's over the in/out line for me. I also give no extra credit for his poineering the surgery - someone had to be first.

9. Urban Shocker SP (8) - Vaulted in 1981, with 1918 war credit (he was having a great year), and an adjustment for the AL being much better than the NL during his time. He was a great pitcher, peak guys should really look closer at him. He'd be a no brainer without his illness, which should not impact a peak vote.

10. Tommy Bridges SP (9) - Unspectacular peak (although he would have won the 1936 AL Cy Young Award if it had been invented), but a lot of career value. War credit helps nudge him above Trout and Leonard. He could obviously still pitch when he left for the war, and was still good when he returned for a short time. I give him 2 years of credit at his 1941-43 level.

11. Gavy Cravath RF (3) - Either he was a freak of nature, or there's a lot missing. I vote for the latter. Check out his thread for deeper discussion of the specifics, including a great analysis from Gadfly. He's the kind of guy we were hoping to catch when we started this project.

12. Pie Traynor 3B (17) - The more I look, the more I think we missed on this one. He gets another bump this week. I don't agree with rating Boyer above him. Traynor far outhit his 3B peers relative to Boyer and his.

13. Thurman Munson C (11) - Better than I realized - just a hair behind Freehan. Better career D, better career O, but Freehan played more and had the higher peak. Very, very close.

14. Ben Taylor 1B (15) - Consider me convinced that he was really was a great hitter. I was underrating him.

15. Dave Concepcion SS (13) - Better than I realized, and was really hurt by the 1981 strike, which occurred during his best season (and a season where the Reds had the best record in baseball, but missed the playoffs). Still no Trammell or Ozzie, but a very good player indeed. We could do worse than induct him.
   94. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: May 07, 2007 at 05:54 PM (#2357276)
16. Wally Schang C (14) - Basically the best MLB catcher between Bennett and Cochrane/Hartnett. As valuable a hitter as Campanella or Bennett. Defense was questionable.

17. Bert Campaneris (--) - He slipped off my radar and he shouldn't have. .470 OWP, in an era where the average SS was at .372. Long (9625 PA) career as well, and a good fielder (62 FRAA). System says to rank him ahead of Concepcion pretty clearly, but I haven't been able to bring myself to do it just yet.

18. Dave Stieb SP (n/e) - The best pitcher in baseball between Seaver's demise and Clemens' rise (1982-85). He got a very nice peak, a decent length career (3070.3 tIP). Very similar to Bridges/Pierce/Walters. Walters had the better 'best-year' but I think Stieb had more 'very good' years and beats him by a hair.

19. Graig Nettles (10) - Vacuum cleaner at 3B, one HR title, another runner-up. He was a better hitter than Brooksy, almost his equal with the glove. Almost as long of a career, and while he wasn't as good as Robinson, Brooks had plenty of room to spare. I had him too high, but still think he belongs.

20. Rusty Staub RF (16) - Finally pushed him higher, I like career candidates with nice peaks, and from 1967-71 Staub was one of the best players in baseball. Looking at Jose Cruz made me realize I had Staub way too low.

21. Dave Bancroft SS (18) - Let's see. You've got a SS with a .498 OWP, during an era where the average SS has a .414 OWP. He's also one of the 15 most valuable defensive shortstops in history to this point. He had a reasonably long career as well, though his in-season durability wasn't great. Think that's a valuable player? I do.

22. Buddy Bell 3B (12) - Just a hair behind Nettles - arguably as good as fielder (though about a season less at 3B) and a hair behind as a hitter also. Who realized at the time that he was one of the best players in the game from 1980-82?

23. Darrell Porter C (19) - A lot higher than I thought he'd be. His 1979 was an MVP caliber season - of course it came in the one year between 1977-81 that the Royals didn't make the playoffs, so he finished 9th behind guys like Mike Flanagan and Gorman Thomas. As a catcher, in 679 PA, he had as good of an offensive season as the LF/DH that won the award. I could see ranking him almost as high as Freehan. I wish I'd looked at this sooner - I'd like to see him get the close look that Ron Cey got. Porter was definitely a better player.

24. Charley Jones LF (20) - A superstar of the early NL/AA. I give full credit for his contract debacle / blacklisting, which I consider a product of his timeframe, and not something that would hinder any modern player. I have dropped him this week. I still think he was great, but I think I'd been giving him a little too much credit for his AA seasons.

25. Jim Fregosi SS (21) - I like middle infielders that can hit.

26. Don Newcombe SP (22) - Gets color-line and Korea credit. Moving up this week after a few tweaks in the system adjusting for fielding behind him.

27. Bucky Walters SP (23) - Big years, good hitter for a pitcher, career kind of short though. Basically tied with Newcombe.

28. Ken Singleton RF (24) - I've got him as very similar to Henrich. Singleton lasted longer (ever after accounting for the war), but Henrich was a much better fielder. Henrich had more power and Singleton more OBP. But when you add it all up, their overall value was quite similar.

29. Burleigh Grimes SP (25) - Faced pretty steep competition (.520 RSI), so his 256-226 RSI and 107 ERA+ understates his record somewhat. I wouldn't be against his election at this point - his hitting puts him over the top. The updated fielding adjustments in WARP drop him a little in the rankings.

30. Phil Rizzuto SS (26) - Lost 3 prime years to WWII. Great defense, and a huge year in 1950 also.

30. Norm Cash 1B (27) - Wow, history books, where have you been hiding this guy? .671 career OWP! +109 fielding runs! That puts his defense at a level with Roger Connor, George Kelly and Frank McCormick among the all-time greats. He has more FRAA than Vic Power, for example.

31. Roger Bresnahan C/OF (28) - Great hitter / catcher = tough combination to overlook.

32. Dave Parker (29) - I wrote a paper in college advocating him for the Hall of Fame, but now I realize that was a mistake. He just wasn't good enough when he was good to offset 1980-84.

33. Tommy Henrich RF (30) - Very underrated, gets a ton of war credit.

I will post my 'missing top-10 comments' later. I have to get off the computer ASAP, and might not be home before 8 p.m., but wanted to make sure this was posted . . .
   95. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: May 07, 2007 at 05:56 PM (#2357280)
test
   96. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: May 07, 2007 at 06:45 PM (#2357349)
1. Gary Carter (x, PHOM) – One of the seven of eight best catchers of all-time. First Expo Homer?


Oui.
   97. mulder & scully Posted: May 07, 2007 at 08:59 PM (#2357548)
Quick ballot this time b/c I am at home babysitting, rather than at work.

Ballot philosophy: I love a great prime. I define it as the player's best 7 years. Then, I consider a player at his peak - his best consecutive three years because I think health, being in the lineup, is key. Next, I consider a player's rate, per 648 PA. Finally, I look at career totals. They honestly don't mean a great deal to me.
I believe in concentrations of talent in both time and position as well as dearth of talent at both. I am okay with gaps and clusters. I try to balance absolute rankings with positional standards.
I believe in MLEs for WWII (at a composite of the surrounding 6 seasons), skin color, being trapped in the minors, and some suspensions (Charley Jones and Tony Mullane).

1. Gary Carter: Only Bench, Berra, and Gibson were definitely better when he retired. Had 200 WS in his top 7 years. Guess who else did that ... Bench and Berra, plus Gibson in MLEs and McVey with massive schedule adjusting and NA credit. I don't know if all of our voters recognize how good he was. How many catchers had 4 years of 30+ win shares? Bench and Berra and Carter.

2. Bert Blyleven: Very large gap down to him. Very good. Even after all of the threads here and on Baseball Analysts, I still like I am missing something about his career - that all the pieces don't fit.

From here down, everybody has faults.
3. Mickey Welch: I think we missed the boat. His record against other HoMer pitcher was amazing - about a 60% winning percentage. Had poor defensive support compared to other HoMer pitchers pre-1893 (except Galvin). Had worse run support compared to other early HoM pitchers (again Galvin excepted).

4. Charley Jones: Like Chris Cobb mentions - the only backlogger who could be considered the best in his league. Fantastic prime. A top 10 player in his league from 1876 through 1885.

5. Bucky Walters: Great durability. Pitched against better teams than expected. Best pitcher in 1939, 1940, 1944 in NL, 2nd by a nose in 1941. Top 4 at worst in majors in those years. This is after I dock him 8 win shares for his 43-45 performance.

6. Pete Browning: Great hitter. Proved what he could do in the 1890 Players League. Top 10 player in 6 of 9 years. Problems with defense and health and he still was a great player.

7. Hugh Duffy: Great defensive player. Has an A rating for win shares despite only playing in CF for 1/3 of his career. Why did Boston move him to LF? Because the Braves home park, South End Grounds, built in mid-94, had a deeper Left Center, 430 feet, than Center, 416. In 1894 and 1895, Boston had Tommy McCarthy who was a great fielder in LF. McCarthy couldn't hit anymore so they got Billy Hamilton and put Duffy into LF. Boston consistently out"won" their stats, both traditional and "sabr." Someone won those games.

8. Tommy Leach: All-Star at third for three years. OF for 4 years. 8 times a top 10 player in his league and 8 times a top 15 player in majors. Win Shares rated "A" at third and OF.

9. Gavy Cravath: Learned to inside out his swing in the minors because that fit his park. Did more of it at the major league level. No one else did it as well. An All-Star for three years in the minors and from 1913-17 in the majors.

10. Vic Willis: Best pitcher in NL in 1899 and 1901. Second in 1902 and 1906. 4 other times in top 10 in National League. 4000 innings at 118 ERA+.
   98. mulder & scully Posted: May 07, 2007 at 09:05 PM (#2357553)
Sorry, I forgot to correct something. Exchange Jones and Welch please.

11. George Burns (phom 1938) - Why? Big prime: 8 straight years among the top 9 position players in the NL, top 20 players in majors. Nice peak from 1917-1919 with two 3rds and a 2nd, to go along with being the best position player in the NL in 1914. Even competing with Cobb, Speaker, Ruth, Cravath, and Jackson, Burns was one of the top 3 OF 3 times.

If WS is not your cup of tea, here are some year by year leaderboard appearances: 5 top 10s in OBP. In those years, he was never worse than 2nd in plate appearances. How's that for a nice combination.
He was top 10 in runs scored 11 straight years, with 5 firsts.
If you like hits, 8 straight years in top 9, 6 of those top 5.
How about power? 7 straight years in top 7 in total bases.
How about walks? 9 years out of 10 in top 10, with 5 firsts.
How about stolen bases? 9 years out of 10 in top 10, only 2 below 4th, with 2 firsts.
Also, 8 straight years in the top 10 in runs created.

12. Don Newcombe (phom) – Lots of innings every year at a top 10 ERA+ rate will do it for me. I give credit for NeL play/MiL play, so Newcombe gets 10 WS for 1947 and 16 for 1948. Also, he gets 3 WS for 1949 – remember he started the year in Montreal.
I give Korean war credit at an average of the surrounding 6 years for 22 WS for 1952 and 23 WS for 1953. Also, I give a slight credit for 1954 readjustment.
In any case, I have Newcombe as the best pitcher in the NL in 1949 (tied with Spahn and Pollet based on 21 WS plus 3) and in 1956. He is in the top 5 in the NL in 1950, 1951, 1955, and 1959. Now, add in 1952 and 1953.
I see an 8 time all-star (6 if you don’t give Korean credit) with 7 years out of 8. If you don’t give the credit, then its 5 years out of the 6 he played.
Also, look at the combination of ERA+ with IP: 1949: 7th ERA+ and 5th IP, 1951: 10th and 6th, 1955: 2nd and 6th, 1956: 3rd and 4th. I think 1952 and 53 would have been similar production.
How about K/W? 8 straight top 10s not including Korea (52-54) with 5 top 3s and only one worse than 6th. Even if you add in 1954, its 8 years out of 9.
How about WHIP? 7 top 10s out of 8, not including Korea, with 6 top 5s and 2 firsts.
Again, a great, extended prime. You will be seeing a familiar pattern.

13. Wilbur Cooper:
Again, another player with a great, in this case 9 year, prime.
By win shares, he is a top 5 in league/majors: 1917, 1918, 1919, 1920, 1921, 1922, 1923, 1924. 4th/NR, 4th/NR, 5th/NR, 3rd/5th, 2nd/6th, 1st/3rd, 5th/NR, 2nd/5th. Plus a 6th in 1916.
Eight straight years as a top 5 starter in the NL, 4 years a top 6 starter in the majors. He lacks the consistent giant years of Johnson and Alexander or the fluke 2 years of Faber or the sporadic peak of Vance. But if you like consistent, no off years, significantly above average pitching, Cooper gives you that.

If win shares are not your bag, let's look at ERA+. Cooper has 9 straight years with between 112 and 144, with 8 of those years being top 10 innings pitched years also. 6 years out of 7, he was top 3 in IP. In 1917, 18, 20, 21, and 22, he was top 10 in both IP and ERA+. What keeps him from ranking better is the fact that his top 10 years in hits per 9 innings, 5 times, and his top 10 years in walks per 9, 5 times, only have one year in common. Still, he does have 4 years with a top 10 WHIP - and he ranks 3rd, 3rd, 2nd, 2nd in IP each year.

14. Bus Clarkson: The numbers are too good for me to ignore. I use a mixture of the first series of translations and the second version of the second set. I see him as the best qualified shortstop so he makes my ballot. His career is hidden by many changes in leagues.

15. Roger Bresnahan: Stands out over his position by such a great deal. Even though he only played roughly 2/3 of his games at catcher, if you can be an all-star in CF when you are not catching, I won’t hold it against you.
   99. Michael Bass Posted: May 07, 2007 at 09:15 PM (#2357569)

Can't count to 15! Right, you'll never hear the end of that.
So who slipped onto the ballot after the ink was dry?


Heh, not someone slipping on late, but the dangers of the template ballot from year to year. I added that comment when he made it to my ballot an election or two ago, then forgot to delete it when Carter/Blyleven pushed him off this year.
   100. mulder & scully Posted: May 07, 2007 at 09:19 PM (#2357574)
Everybody else:

16. Alejandro Ohms (PHOM 1964): Many years of all-star-plus years (over 25 win shares.) After being close to returning the ballot for years, he finally does.

17. Rollie Fingers: I’m still not sure about him. Without him, the A’s don’t win at least one World Series. He was very durable for a very long time. He didn’t have the peak of a Gossage or a Hiller or a Sutter.

18. Frank Chance (PHOM 1985): Best peak and prime by a first baseman between Connor/ Brouthers and Gehrig. Top 10 in league: 1903, 1904, 1905, 1906, 1907. Rank in league/majors: 3rd/3rd t, 2nd/5th t, 8th t/15th t, 3rd/4th, 6th t/15th t. Best first baseman in league and majors in 1903-1907, league 1908.

19: Burleigh Grimes (PHOM 1961): Too many ups and downs in his career to get elected, but I think he and Early Wynn are the same guy.
Top 5 in league/majors: 1918, 1920, 1921, 1924, 1928, 1929. 2nd/5th t, 2nd/3rd t, 1st/4th t, 3rd t/NR, 2nd t/2nd t, 2nd t/NR.

20. Elston Howard: I kept overlooking him. I am giving more of a benefit of the doubt about his opporunity issues: Korea, race. Catcher bonus.
Top 10 in league in 1961, 1963, 1964
Rank in league/majors: 6th t/11th t, 3rd t/12th t, 3rd/8th.
Best catcher in league in 1961, 1963, 1964. In majors in 1961, 1963, 1964.

21. Dave Stieb: Great early 80s run. I am conservative in my early placement of newbies. I am in the midst of reevaluating candidates, positions, and the difficulty of the eighties. Probably won’t jump to my ballot in 99, but may see it in 2000.

22. Jack Fournier: Noticed that I forgotten about him when he is given appropriate credit for 1917, 1918, and 1919. Remember he did have a 142 OPS+ for his career.
Top 10 in league in 1915, 1918 (minor league credit) 1921, 1923, 1924, 1925. Rank in league/majors: 5th t/7th t, (9th/17th), 5th t/14th t, 5th t/10th t, 3rd/4th, 3rd/6th.
Best first baseman in league: 1915, 1921, 1923, 1924, 1925. Best in majors: 1915, 1923, 1924, 1925.
I believe the MLEs for Fournier are too low because they give him OPS+ of 117, 137, and 122 at ages 27, 28, 29. Those would be his 8th/10th/and 11th highest OPS+ for his career. He may not have set career highs but I think they would have been more line with his career.

23. Larry Doyle (PHOM 1987): Great hitter at second. Defense left something to be desired. Top 10 in league in 1909, 1910, 1911, 1912, 1913, 1915. Rank in league/majors: 4th t/8th t, 7th/11th, 4th/9th, 3rd/9th, 9th/22nd, 2nd/5th.
Best second baseman in league: 1909 (t), 1910, 1911, 1912, 1915, 1916 (t), 1917. Second best in majors to Collins in 1909, 1911, 1912, 1915. Third best in majors behind Collins and Lajoie in 1910.

24. Frank Howard: Career was mismanaged by the Dodgers, but at that point they had more talent than they knew what to do with.
Top 12/15 in league in 1962, 1965, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971. Rank in league/majors: 12th t/18th t, 8th t/22nd t, 6th t/14th t, 2nd/2nd, 4th t/8th t, 6th t/10th t, 15th t/33rd t.
Top 3 outfielder in league: 1968, 1969, 1970. Top 3 in majors: 1968, 1970.

25. Graig Nettles: A great defensive 3rd basemen. Lacks the great years that so many 3rd basemen have in the 60s and 70s: Santo, Bando, Schmidt, Brett, Perez before he moved to 1st. Listed higher than my system says because I believe there is something my system is not catching about him.
Top 15 in league in 1971, 1972 (16th), 1974, 1975 (19th but 1 away from 15th), 1976, 1977, 1978.
Rank in league/majors: 6th t/15th t, 16th t/38th t, 13th t/31st t, 4th/9th, 11th t/20th t, 8th/16th.
Best 3b in league: 2nd in 1971 by 2, 2nd t in 1972 by 2, 1974 3rd by 3, 1975 2nd by 4, 2nd by 5 in 1976, 2nd by 4 in 1977, 2nd by 1 in 1978

26. Luke Easter: Could be anywhere between here and the ballot depending on how much credit I'm giving next week.

27. Herman Long: Another key player on the 1890s Bostonians. Fantastic fielder. Need to review his defensive numbers. Top 10 in league in 1891, 1892, 1893 . Rank in league/majors: 2nd/3rd t, 6th, 3rd
Best shortstop in league/majors: 1891, 1893. Best in league: 1889

28. Dick Redding (PHOM 1975): Not enough shoulder seasons to go with the big 4 years. I pulled the trigger too soon on him. May need to do a recall election...

29. Al Rosen: What if...
Top 10 in league: 1950, 1951, 1952, 1953, 1954
Rank in league/majors: 4th t/7th t, 5th t/14th t, 3rd/5th, 1st/1st, 7th/14th.
Best third baseman in AL in 1950, 1952, 1953, 1954. Best in majors in 1950, 1952, 1953.

30. Ken Singleton: Slugging outfielder for Weaver’s Orioles. Career reputation is hindered by playing in a pitcher’s park in an average/slightly lower than average era for hitting.
Top 15 in league in: 1973, 1975, 1976, 1977, 1978, 1979, 1980,
Rank in league/majors: 9th t/13th t, 1st t/2nd t, 12th t/24th t, 2nd/2nd, 4th t/8th t, 3rd/5th, 7th t/12th t
Top 3 outfielder in league in 1975, 1977, 1978, 1979. In majors in 1975, 1977, 1979.
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