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Hall of Merit
— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best

Monday, May 21, 2007

1999 Ballot (Elect Three)

Top new candidates: Carlton Fisk, George Brett, Robin Yount, Nolan Ryan, Dale Murphy and Frank Tanana.

Top-ten returnees: Cannonball Dick Redding, Willie Randolph, Pete Browning, Bucky Walters, Rollie Fingers, Roger Bresnahan and Bob Johnson.

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: May 21, 2007 at 12:25 PM | 150 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   101. Paul Wendt Posted: May 26, 2007 at 07:28 PM (#2379717)
Here now the sidebar says 102 articles but I get the same page for both URLs, containing #1-100 without any internal "1 2" links between pages.
   102. Paul Wendt Posted: May 26, 2007 at 07:29 PM (#2379718)
Perhaps I should have said "bump"?
The sidebar says 103 but there are only 101
   103. sunnyday2 Posted: May 26, 2007 at 09:06 PM (#2379755)
I didn't give Pearce XC for "inventing SS." But there is something to be said for pioneering. I mean, how hard is it to play SS in the MLs--it's darn hard, BTW--but how hard is it if you grow up with coaching and the opportunity to watch older, better players from the age of 6 or so, compared to never having seen anybody do it and never having anybody who's done it providing advice, and etc. The latter player--assuming equal levels of raw athletic ability--will never develop the same skills, but he will have gone further from the starting point. The raw athletic ability and, even more to the point, the ability to envision something new, that Dickey Pearce possessed must have been awesome. Now, those aren't the things we're supposed to vote for but just as an aside consider the attributes it took to do what Pearce did. Most impressive.
   104. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: May 26, 2007 at 10:21 PM (#2379776)
Here now the sidebar says 102 articles but I get the same page for both URLs, containing #1-100 without any internal "1 2" links between pages.


The posts from "Baseball Chick Killed..." were deleted. Either Jim or Dan must have read my e-mail to the primer-list and acted upon it.
   105. EricC Posted: May 27, 2007 at 12:05 AM (#2379898)
1999 ballot. System: position players are rated by win shares per plate appearance relative to contemporaries at same position and overall; pitchers are rated by ERA+ (in spite of its flaws). Optimum consecutive "prime" is found in each player's career, where prime ratings are determined by a nonlinear sliding scale in which more playing time requires a lower rate for the same rating.

1. Carlton Fisk 3rd greatest ML C, behind Berra and Dickey. Multiple times as best C; record career length for a catcher. Occasional off-seasons and one's philosophy about catcher bonuses will determine how one rates Fisk among catchers, and overall, but clearly HoM worthy.

2. Robin Yount 4th greatest ML SS, behind Wagner, Rodriguez, and Ripken. Multiple seasons as best SS, one season as best CF. Very, very, close to a tie with Brett. Yount's past-his-prime portion of his career was shorter, of better quality, and at more demanding defensive positions than Brett's.

3. George Brett 3rd greatest ML 3B, behind Mathews and Schmidt. Multiple seasons as best 3B or 2nd best 3B (thanks to Schmidt).

4. Nolan Ryan Well below the top 3; not the ace that he's thought to be, but his spectular career value more than qualifies him for the HoM.

5. Wally Schang Correcting for the 154-game schedule and the WWI-shortened seasons, has as much career value as Freehan in as many games, at least by Win Shares. Schang's lesser season-by-season totals is because in-season catcher usage was lower during his time than afterwards. Is it fair to penalize him for that? A case where WARP is not as flattering as WS, perhaps accounting for Schang's lack of support here.

6. Tommy John Career pitching candidate in the mold of Faber or E. Wynn. Kaat is also similar. I can see how some voters would not put Tommy John within a mile of their ballots; on the other hand, John's decent showing in the mock BBWAA election shows that some level of support exists.

7. Willie Randolph Most similar 2B: Frisch, N. Fox, Kent. I tend to buy the Fox ~ Randolph argument, now having had both in the top 5 of my ballot.

8. Brian Downing This is a vote that will raise eyebrows, I'm sure. I have double-checked the numbers, and did not find any errors or compelling reasons to change my methodology, although the subjective strangeness of the outcome makes me question most (1) whether the career value portion of DH-era players ratings should be docked because careers tended to be longer (2) whether being among the best DH in a season is worth as many peak points as I'm giving. He ends up so high from a combination of every quirk in my system breaking in his favor: catcher "bonus" for the catcher years, treatment of DH as a position in itself, (legitimate) timelining, and consideration of league strength/how DH in a league affects raw totals.

9. Jack Clark Most similar players: R. Smith, Burkett, Heilmann, Cepeda, Singleton A "tweener" career that was good enough for long enough to land on my ballot.

10. Rusty Staub Looks like career >> peak to me. Will not help my consensus score, as similar players are the very very good types who don't make the HoM (or the HoF, unless they attain magic numbers like 3000 hits). I should call all the bats that crowd the middle to bottom of my ballot "quadruple-A HoM candidates". Why did Dw. Evans get elected to the HoM, and not Staub? By WS, they look interchangeable.

11. Norm Cash Among better 1B most seasons 1960-1971, and occasional all-star level. More consistent than Cepeda, but less playing time per season.

12. Orlando Cepeda Among better 1B most of years during 1959-1967 and occasionally all-star level; career totals padded 1968-1974. Cepeda, Cash, and F. Howard are a set of near-exact contemporary "bat" candidates who played in the 1960s, a tricky era in which to judge the potential bottom-half-of-the-HoM "bats".

13. Elston Howard Multiple years of all star play at catcher; 1961-1964 "workload" also noteworthy. A peak that few catchers have attained, but very little outside the peak.

14. Reggie Smith Among better RF most years during the 1970s; respectable career totals; played CF in addition to RF. One stat that I've tabulated for fun is career Win Shares times career WS per plate appearance. It's not a perfect stat, but does correlate well with HoM selections. In this measure, Reggie Smith is the highest unelected player. That doesn't prove that he's a HoMer, but does suggest searching for reasons for his lack of support: (1) he's a 'tweener' between peak and career; (2) he missed a lot of playing time so that while his rate stats were always well above average, they don't show always lead to high season-by-season totals for those who look at things that way (3) he split defense among several positions; some may be rating him as a RF and neglecting his CF play.

15. Mickey Vernon Did have some all-star type seasons at 1B, but basically a "career" candidate all the way. Credit for two years missed to WWII, and belief that pre-expansion 1950s baseball had some of the toughest competiton of all time. Among top contenders for "Hall of Fame chance hurt by WWII", as listed in Bill James' NBJHBA.

Dale Murphy was, IMO, HoVG due to his sudden and sharp decline in his early 30s.

Frank Tanana had an impressive career length for a 1980s pitcher, but not enough quality. Still, he ends up closer to my ballot than I would have thought.

Bresnahan is just off my ballot; an inferior candidate to Schang (the NL in the 1900s just wasn't that strong), but would not be a bad choice for a HoMer.

Fingers looks to me like a "career reliever" candidate, like Lee Smith. This type does not come out highly in my system, though I can see the argument for having more relievers than I'm likely to put in my PHoM. FWIW, I have Tekulve higher than Fingers, a pitcher who's underrated because the saves stat is overrated.

Jake Beckley was on my ballot once upon a time, but has been squeezed out. He's been elected, so we don't need to say why he's not on our ballots. :-)

I have Bill Byrd a touch above Redding, and Sol White as the unelected NeL candidate that I rate the highest.

Bucky Walters's case has issues of quality vs. career length, and WWII level of competition. Ultimately not enough high-quality seasons for my taste.

Bob Johnson: on the basis of his major league record, HoVG, not HoM, plus we really can't elect another OF from the 1930s. Does he deserve extra credit? I've never given much extra credit for situations such as this.

Considering the context of thin and weak competition, lack of durability, and career shortness, there is less than meets the eye in Browning's case.
   106. Brent Posted: May 27, 2007 at 02:02 AM (#2380136)
1999 Ballot:

1. George Brett – # 3 third baseman to date; top of the second quartile of the HoM. (PHoM 1999)

2. Carlton Fisk – My favorite player of the 1980s. (During the early 80s I lived in Chicago and followed the White Sox.) Fisk ranks below Carter, but still comfortably fits in the second quartile/top 100 players in history. (PHoM 1999)

3. Robin Yount – Also in the HoM's second quartile. (PHoM 1999)

4. Nolan Ryan – Well behind the other great pitchers of the 70s (note that I didn't support Sutton for the HoM), I have Ryan ranked at the bottom of the HoM’s third quartile—i.e., well outside the top 100 players. IMO he wouldn’t have been ballot worthy without his “second prime” from 1987-91. Over 12 seasons (1972-74, 76-77, 79, 81-82, 87, 89-91) he averaged 16-13, 2.4 wins above team, 248 IP, 280 SO, 128 BB, 127 DERA+.

5. Ken Singleton – 8 seasons with OPS+>130 and PA>600 (adjusting to 162 game schedule). (PHoM 1991)

6. Phil Rizzuto – Excellent defense; above average hitter at his position; key contributor to many pennants. (PHoM 1967)

7. Carlos Morán – Please check out the analysis on the Carlos Morán thread. Ranks with Dickey Pearce as one of my biggest surprises on this project. Compared to other pre-1935 NeLg stars, his statistical record is remarkably deep and solid—more than 500 recorded plate appearances that include data on walks, 1/3rd of which were against major league pitching; data on context for nearly 1,300 at bats across 14 seasons. With a record comparable to, but better than, Stan Hack’s, he deserves to appear on more ballots than just mine.

8. Hugh Duffy – 7 seasons with OPS+>120 while playing 97% of his team’s games, contributing to five pennants, and ranking as one of the top defensive outfielders in baseball. (PHoM 1931)

9. Alejandro Oms – From 1921-29, his MLE OPS+ was 138; a good defensive center fielder. (PHoM 1967)

10. Bobby Bonds – 10 seasons with OPS+>115, PA>600, SB>25, and R>90. (PHoM 1987)

11. Dave Stieb – Moves up and onto my ballot with reconsideration. Over 9 seasons (1980-85, 88-90) he averaged 15-10, 2.6 wins above team, 239 IP, 126 DERA+.

12. Bucky Walters – Over 7 seasons (1936, 39-42, 44-45) he averaged 18-13, 2.0 wins above team, 270 IP, 123 DERA+, 72 OPS+. MVP for 1939. (PHoM 1958)

13. Dizzy Dean – Over 6 seasons (1932-37) he averaged 22-13, 3.6 wins above team, 288 IP, 129 DERA+, 182 SO, 67 BB. (PHoM 1958)

14. Mickey Welch – Over 7 seasons (1880, 84-85, 87-90) he averaged 30-17, 4.3 wins above team, 437 IP, 117 DERA+, 74 OPS+. (PHoM 1966)

15. Gavy Cravath – Among the pure hitters, he has the strongest credentials. Six MLB or MLE seasons with OPS+ >= 150 and PA>550. In his prime, he was a better hitter than Browning and—with appropriate credit for his performance in Los Angeles and Minneapolis—had significantly more career value. (PHoM 1976)

Near misses:

16–20. Redding (PHoM 1976), Bando (PHoM 1987), Grimes (PHoM 1940), Pérez (PHoM 1994), Castillo
21–25. Bresnahan (PHoM 1997), E Howard (PHoM 1977), Van Haltren (PHoM 1997), Parker, Leach (PHoM 1932)
26–30. Newcombe, F Howard, R Smith, Arlett, Nettles

Other consensus top 10:

Dick Redding – # 16.

Willie Randolph – I’m not seeing whatever it is that has gotten him so much support.

Pete Browning – His election will be a mistake. Similar in his prime to Gavy Cravath, Julián Castillo, Frank Howard, and Buzz Arlett, except that they all had longer careers and better in-season durability. Hack Wilson is a more appropriate comp.

Rollie Fingers – I see him as part of a cluster of fine relievers who don’t quite rise to my ballot cutoff.

Roger Bresnahan - # 21; borderline catcher.

Bob Johnson – I guess some folks aren’t discounting WWII play as much as I am.

Other new arrivals:

Dale Murphy – My second favorite player of the 80s (after Fisk), I was hoping he would make my ballot. But after running the numbers, it was clear that he fell just a little short. I have him ranked # 36.
   107. Chris Fluit Posted: May 27, 2007 at 02:08 AM (#2380149)
I'm in the midst of restructuring my ballot but I'm also about as far along as I'm going to be by Monday.

1. George Brett, 3B (n/e) 19th all-time for runs created, right between Mickey Mantle and Honus Wagner.

2. Carlton Fisk, C (n/e)

3. Nolan Ryan, P (n/e) Blyleven was better than Ryan. I had Carter ahead of Blyleven. If I'm going to be at all consistent, I should have Fisk ahead of Ryan.

4. Robin Yount, SS (n/e) I grew up watching the '80s shortstops and though Cal was my favorite, I did have a Brewers cap for awhile. But, sadly, Yount comes out fourth on my ballot.

5. Cannonball Dick Redding, P (3). PHoM- 1975. Great peak years between 1914 and 1919 including a 2.14 ERA in 321 innings for Chicago in 1917 (according to i9). Lost a half a year in each of ’18 and ’19 due to military service. Even so, his career MLEs of 234-174 put him in the neighborhood of -if not ahead of- contemporaries like Coveleski, Faber and Rixey.

6. Lou Brock, LF (4). PHoM- 1985. I'm one of Brock's best friends but we'll see how well Brock does once my restructuring gets to outfielders.

7. Willie Randolph, 2B (n/a). The best second baseman available combining offense, defense and career length when every other candidate falls short in at least one of those categories.

8. Alejandro Oms, CF (5). PHoM- 1984. His career overlapped too much with Cristobal Torriente for him to be considered the best, but he had a long prime at a high level. Was consistently among the league leaders from 1923 to ’35, usually in average but occasionally in home runs. Superior defensive reputation nearly pushed him ahead of Brock, but Brock keeps the lead based on established rather than estimated career numbers.

9. Burleigh Grimes, P (6). PHoM- 1984. My ballot is starting to fill up with this kind of player- missing the huge peak but a long excellent prime for a decade or more which results in great career numbers. Still, Grimes did have two separate peaks: first in 1920-’21 when he was the best NL’s pitcher in 1921 (138 ERA+ in 302 IP, compared to Adams 144 in 160 and Doak 142 in 208), and a second in 1928-29 (1st in Wins, 2nd in WHIP in ’28; 1st in ERA+, 2nd in ERA in ’29).

10. Luis Aparicio, SS (10). PHoM- 1987. He was a star on the basepaths and with the glove. He did what shortstops of his era were asked to do and he did it better than any of the others. He led his league in stolen bases for 9 straight seasons from ‘56-‘64 and he stayed in the top ten for another 4 until he was 35 in 1969. He won five straight Gold Gloves from ‘58-‘62 and then another 4 in alternating years from ‘64-‘70. Plus, he was notoriously hard to strike out, finishing in the top ten in that category for 16 straight years from ‘58 to ‘73 and leading the league his league twice in ‘69 and ‘73.

11. Hugh Duffy, CF (7). PHoM- 1995. The Triple Crown winner in 1894, Duffy picked up black ink as early as ’90 and as late as ’97. An excellent center-fielder who could have won Gold Gloves in ’93 and ’95, he was moved to left not because of poor play but because his team acquired Billy Hamilton.

12. Don Newcombe, P (8). PHoM- 1987. Great years in ’50-’51 and ’55-’56 interrupted by military service in the Korean War. Missing a rise to his career due to integration and a tail due to his own personal issues (and no, he doesn’t get credit for the latter). With proper credit, he’s well over 200 wins for his career and though he isn’t in the same class as contemporaries like Whitey Ford and Billy Pierce, he’s close enough to be worthy of induction.

13. Roger Bresnahan, C (n/a). First time on my ballot! Head to head comparisons with Lombardi and Howard push Bresnahan to the top.

14. Orlando Cepeda, 1B (9). PHoM- 1996. Cepeda is surprisingly close to his year of eligibility classmate Al Kaline. They have similar amounts of black ink. Cepeda led his league in doubles in 1958, in home runs and RBI in 1961 and in RBI again in 1967. And they have similar lengths to their prime, with Cepeda finishing in the top ten in his league in hits 7, avg and total bases 8, slugging 9, and home runs and RBI 10. At his position, I prefer Cepeda’s peak to that of Beckley and his career to that of Chance.

15. Rollie Fingers, RP (12). PHoM- 1998. Only Gossage and Rivera have gone to more All-Star games as a reliever than Rollie Fingers. Top two in games pitched six years in a row from ’72 to ’77. Top four in games saved eleven out of twelve years from ’71 to ’82. Retired as the career leader in saves. ERA under 2 three times (’73, ’81 and a short ’84), and under 3 eleven times in twelve years from ’71 to ’82 and again in that short ’84.

Top ten returnees:
Pete Browning: I voted for him a couple of ballots back but more recently, I've moved a couple of other centerfielders ahead of him including Van Haltren and the recently elected Edd Roush.

Bucky Walters: great peak in '39 and '40, but not enough outside of that to make my ballot. I'd rather have Bridges or Gomez.

Bob Johnson: Moving closer to my ballot as other outfielders get elected but I'm not convinced he's the best option for a corner outfielder.
   108. dan b Posted: May 27, 2007 at 03:46 PM (#2380358)
PHoM 1999 – Barnes, McVey, Pearce ;)


1. Brett NHBA #30 all players, 3b #2
2. Yount NHBA #55 all players, SS #4. By WS beats Brett over 10 consecutive seasons, Brett beats Yount at all other permutations I look at.
3. Fisk NHBA #97 all players, C #6
4. Ryan NHBA not one of the top 100 players, P #24. I agree with James on the order of this year’s big 4. It looks like I do not hold a minority view.
5. Dean PHoM 1976. 1975 reevaluation of great pitching peaks put him on my ballot for the first time. NHBA #25.
6. Walters PHoM 1968. Nice peak.
7. Duffy PHoM 1912. I’ve been looking at how players on the ballot compare with the median level of already enshrined HoMers using WS. Duffy would be in the top half using 5 consecutive seasons, 10 consecutive seasons and 8 best seasons.
8. Bando PHoM 1994. NHBA #11 (Boyer #12)
9. Howard, E PHoM 1995. NHBA #15
10. Rizzuto PHoM 1995. 1993 reevaluation moved him up. Another player deserving more WWII credit. NHBA #16.
11. Bresnahan PHoM 1928. SABR Dead ball era committee has him #1. No MLB catchers between Ewing and Hartnett is not being fair to all eras.
12. Cooper, W PHoM 1942. Returns to my ballot in 1995 after 44-year hiatus. His peak was during a thinly recognized period. Willis may have been better, but his era is more strongly represented.
13. Burns, G. PHoM 1996. Came close to making PHoM during the 1929-1932 trough. Probably should have, better late than never. His 10-consective year peak is above the HoM median as is his 3-year non-consecutive.
14. Leach PHoM 1926.
15. Singleton PHoM 1997. Not many players on ballot with 3-32+ and 6-27+ WS seasons. How much better would the HoM be than the HOF if the worst player in our hall were Ken Singleton?
16. Mays, C PHoM 1997. His era could use another pitcher. A quality pitcher we are overlooking. NHBA #38.
17. Cravath PHoM 1967. mle credit where credit is due.
18. Newcombe PHoM 1998. Giving more war and mle credit (1993). NHBA #46.
19. Willis, V PHoM 1941.
20. Browning PHoM 1912.
21. </b>Parker</b> Do the first base line Dave. NHBA #14.
22. Howard, F I’ll take Hondo’s peak over Bobby Bonds. I can’t bring myself to PHoMing him.
23. Stieb
24. Berger
25. Rosen If Moore, why not Rosen? If a great 5 consecutive season peak were the only measure we considered, Rosen would have been elected in 1964.
26. Bonds, Bo Barry’s dad was pretty good.
27. Munson NHBA #14
28. Staub
29. Evans, Dw
30. Perez
31. Cepeda
32. Tiant
33. Cash, N
34. Doyle PHoM 1930.
35. Chance, F PHoM 1921.
36. Jones, C – I have voted for him (4) times – 1898 thru 1901. When I dropped him in ’02, he received only 2 votes. Ed Williamson was on 18 ballots; Arlie Latham drew more support with 3 votes. My 1898 ballot comment – “9. Jones. Two-year hold out probably costs him a couple places”. Nobody was giving credit for not playing back then, as we hadn’t tackled issues like war and mil credit yet. If as many voters had treated his hold out years like he was an all-star back then as are doing so now, he may have been elected by 1920. His 1988 top-10 finish pushed me to re-evaluate for 1989 and give him holdout credit. A reconstructed PHoM based on if I thought then like I think now, would have put him in my PHoM during the trough years of 1929-32 if not 1921.
37. Grimes
38. Ryan, J
39. Van Haltren Do 3 years of slightly below average pitching really merit Van Haltren this much more support than Jimmy Ryan? Walked 16 in stellar pitching performance 6/27/1887.
40. Redding Fared well in the Cool Papa’s survey, as did Spots Poles.
41. Elliott
42. Brock not enough peak to be higher
43. Pinson
44. Smith, Reg less peak and less career than Brock
45. Sutter I like him better than Fingers.
46. Arlett
47. Traynor
48. Nettles
49. Cicotte Better character and a couple more good years made possible by better character would have made him a HoFer if not a HoMer.
50. Gomez More peak than Tiant.
51. Bell
52. Murcer
53. Evers
54. Randolph Before we elect Willie, take a closer look at Evers.
55. Cey
56. Mazeroski
57. Fingers
58. McGraw Best 3B of the 90’s
59. Colavito
60. Rice
   109. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: May 27, 2007 at 04:11 PM (#2380376)
PHoM 1999 – Barnes, McVey, Pearce ;)


lol
   110. Willie Mays Hayes Posted: May 27, 2007 at 04:38 PM (#2380394)
1. George Brett - Real close to Schmidt as the best 3B ever - if he had stayed there and stayed healthy. As it is, just enough to be #1 on top of this stacked ballot.
2. Robin Yount - I love the shape of his career. I love that he was able to competently play two of the most valuable positions on the diamond, with more than enough bat.
3. Carlton Fisk - Just nudges out Ryan for an elect-me spot, due to catcher bonus. Became a better hitter as he aged, which is rare for a catcher.
4. Nolan Ryan - So overrated he's almost underrated now. Sure he walked a lot of guys, but he struck out so many more.
5. Pete Browning - I'm convinced he was the 1880's Dick Allen. He belongs.
6. Hugh Duffy - I like Browning better after looking closer, but his glove makes him elite.
7. Dave Stieb - My system likes him. Good peak, maybe the best of eligible pitchers from the 20 century. He is also criminally underrated.
8. Bucky Walters - How did I miss him for so long? Underrated by the electorate. Very similar to Stieb.
9. Thurman Munson - I'm sold that he was very similar to Freehan.
10. Willie Randolph - Above average with the bat, very good glove. WARP loves him.
11. Buddy Bell - He's very close to Darrell Evans in my system, just a bit better than Nettles.
12. Graig Nettles - WARP likes him, and so do I. A poor man's Brooks Robinson.
13. Alejandro Oms - I was missing a lot on him for a while. Nice player. Moves down after re-examining DH-era hitters.
14. Rusty Staub - A mix of peak/prime career. I like him better than Beckley, but not near as much as Duffy/Browning.
15. Jack Clark - I think he's the best of the no-defense sluggers left.

Required Disclosures:
Murphy is literally #16 on my ballot - I like him.
Tanana is in the 40's
Redding is 32, I used to vote for him, until I reviewed the evidence again - the 20's doesnt look like A HOMer to me.
Fingers is not near my ballot - I don't think we need any relievers until Gossage.
Bresnahan is in the 30's. Maybe I'm missing something, but he looks a whole lot like Bob Elliot or Reggie Smith with some catcher bonus.
Johnson is near 50. He played in a weak league.
   111. SWW Posted: May 27, 2007 at 09:42 PM (#2380802)
Well, the Indy cars don’t seem to be going anywhere. Looks like a good opportunity to get this in.

<u>1999 Ballot</u>
1) George Howard Brett
The valedictorian of an incredible class. A remarkably iconic career, too, with the chase for .400 and the Kansas City World Championship and the Pine Tar. 22nd on Ken Shouler Top 100. 29th on SABR Top 100. 30th on Bill James Top 100. 44th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 55th on Sporting News Top 100. New York Times Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
2) Robin R. Yount
Never was a huge fan; always felt he robbed Ruben Sierra of the MVP. Robin certainly has the career, though. Anybody know what’s up with his middle name? 45th on Ken Shouler Top 100. 55th on Bill James Top 100. 79th on SABR Top 100. 84th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. New York Times Top 100.
3) Carlton Ernest Fisk – “Pudge”
Undoubtedly one of the top catchers of his day, and his stats point to the tremendous focus he had on the field. He just waves this one fair, too. 67th on Ken Shouler Top 100. 92nd on SABR Top 100. 97th on Bill James Top 100. New York Times Top 100.
4) Lynn Nolan Ryan Jr – “The Express”
I’ll confess: I was a huge fan from the moment he signed with the Astros, and not being able to put him in an “elect-me” spot does cause me some pain. This is where he belongs, though. His stunning career stats pull him away from the field, but he wasn’t consistently among the best on a season-by-season basis to push him a notch higher. Hey, at least I’ll get to rank him first next year. 41st on Sporting News Top 100. 44th on SABR Top 100. 60th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 94th on Ken Shouler Top 100. New York Times Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
5) Burleigh Arland Grimes – “Ol’ Stubblebeard”
My white whale. A successful pitcher with both a dead ball and a live one. Frequently one of the best pitchers in the league, and often the best pitcher on his team. Many comparisons to Early Wynn, whom we did elect, and most similar to Red Faber, whom we also elected. I heartily encourage people to review his case. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
6) Roland Glen Fingers – “Rollie”
Interestingly, watching Rich Gossage’s unnecessarily-long march to Cooperstown has helped me assess my placement of relief pitchers. I think the weirdness of the position has led this electorate to underrate him, and not entirely unfairly. But Fingers is one of the best at his position, outdistances guys like Sutter, Lyle, and McGraw. Also, DanG calls him “the Grimes of RP’s”, which seems almost calculated to get my attention. 76th on SABR Top 100. 82nd on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 97th on Sporting News Top 100. New York Times Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
7) Atanasio Perez Rigal – “Tony”
8) Orlando Manuel Cepeda Pennes – “Baby Bull”
A similar pair. Tony has the edge in Win Shares. Cha Cha shows a greater impact compared to his team and his league. Tony has higher career and higher prime numbers, so right now he gets the advantage. Perez is 74th on Ken Shouler Top 100.
9) Carl William Mays
I have long considered Mays to be underrated, with better seasons and more milestones than more beloved candidates, like Luis Tiant and Billy Pierce. I think another review of pitchers may be in order, but I still believe that the pitchers of this era get short shrift.
10) Louis Clark Brock
Reaffirming my status as a career voter. He does well in Black and Gray Ink (owing, no doubt, to his prowess on the basepaths), and his prime WS and Top 10 WS seasons are notable. He’s hanging in there. 42nd on Ken Shouler Top 100. 58th on Sporting News Top 100. 73rd on SABR Top 100. 77th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. New York Times Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
11) Dale Bryan Murphy
A pleasant surprise. Similar in some ways to Hugh Duffy, in the peak-heavy nature of his career. A lot more of a prime, though, with 6 appearances in the NL Top 10 in Win Shares. New York Times Top 100.
12) Richard Redding – “Cannonball Dick”
Definitely the best remaining Negro League pitcher. That in and of itself may not merit his election. Hanging in there thanks to my support for Mays, who has a strikingly similar arc.
13) Edgar Charles Rice – “Sam”
An impressive career considering his late start. Not much in the way of peak, but considering how few Win Shares the Senators had to divvy up, he did pretty well. That flatness is of special concern, in light of the arrival of…
14) David Gene Parker – “Cobra”
If I’ve learned anything through my association with this project, it’s that while I’m a career voter, the importance of having a strong prime has grown a great deal in my estimation. It’s that thinking that keeps Parker on my ballot, and while I’m always reviewing the matter, I’m feeling alright about this placement. There’d be no doubt, if only he’d laid off the Colombian marching powder.
15) Daniel Joseph “Rusty” Staub – “Le Grand Orange”
I‘m moving him up, because his career numbers actually stand out more than I realized. 358 WS is nothing to sneeze at, but his 5-year prime of 145 WS is also a standout. Imagine if he’d spent his career with one great team. 96th on SABR Top 100. 97th on Ken Shouler Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.

<u>Other Top 10 Finishers</u>
Jacob Peter Beckley – “Eagle Eye”
I favor career numbers, so… what? He was? Holy cats!
Willie Larry Randolph
He was on the ballot last year; the influx pushes him down. There's a good chance he could return next year.
Louis Rogers Browning – “Pete”
A little like Rube Waddell as a slugger. Definitely better than I expected, and I think there’s a very strong case to be made that he’s might be better than Wynn. His position and era are well-represented, and I’m not entirely convinced that he’s outstanding enough to move up. So many frickin’ center fielders.
William Henry Walters – “Bucky”
I’ve got a lot of pitchers ahead of him. In particular, I have him around Tiant and John, who are good, but not quite there.
Roger Philip Bresnahan – “The Duke of Tralee”
I have no problem classifying him as a catcher, and certainly the best catcher currently eligible. But is he so great a catcher that he merits induction? I’m not so sure.
Robert Lee Johnson – “Indian Bob”
Comes out similar to Heinie Manush, who I think is underrated, but still not quite ballot-worthy. So Bob falls short.
   112. Tiboreau Posted: May 28, 2007 at 01:27 AM (#2380936)
1. 3b George Brett—One of those dudes with two first names. A step below Mathews & Schmidt, keeping company with Boggs & Baker. I'd hate to have seen what would've happened to McClelland if Brett had gotten a hold of him. . . .
2. ss Robin Yount—His best years may look underwhelming after the big 3, but considering the positions he played in the eras he played Robin R Yount is a shoo-in for the Hall of Merit.
3. c Carlton Fisk—Lack of in season durability hurts him in comparison to the top 2 candidates, but it is a small knock on a sensational HoM career.
4. sp Nolan Ryan—Yes, he's not a peak candidate, but he was no slouch at his best either.
5. 1b Luke Easter—We know that he had a long career (records of play with top Negro League teams in late ‘30s, early ‘40s and continued to play in the minors until the early ‘60s). We know he had the potential for big play (1948 and, when healthy, ’52, ’56 and ’58). What we don’t know is how well he would have played in the first half of his career, during his twenties. Yet, as we dig deeper into the backlog I find myself more willing to elect a player with a good career who showed the potential for greatness than one with a long career of merely above average play or one with short period of definite greatness during an abbreviated career.
6. cf Alejandro Oms—The Cuban Enos Slaughter: only one season over 30 WS, but 8 over 25; considering the effects of regression, had a nice peak as well as a real good career, including three statistically undocumented seasons in the Cuban Sugar Leagues before his recorded explosion in performance at age 26.
7. sp Dizzy Dean—For five years he was among the greatest pitchers of all-time. Sadly, his career essentially comprises of those five years. The greatest peak among eligible pitching candidates.
8. 3b Al Rosen—Flip's candidacy is similar to Dean's: five excellent seasons without much else, his career cut short by Keltner at the front end and back injuries at opposite end.
9. sp Leroy Matlock—Had a great peak, including 26 straight wins from ’34 to ’36. In fact, according to the MLEs, Matlock’s peak (and career) was better than Dean’s. However, the difficulties of estimating season-by-season value of Negro League pitchers leads me to place Matlock a bit below Dizzy.
10. 3b John McGraw—Two great seasons surrounded by several more excellent yet injury-riddled years while playing a physically demanding (and underrepresented) position in a physically demanding era.
11. c Elston Howard—After pre-MLB credit, a similar player to Roger Bresnahan; his peak is slightly better, career slightly shorter. Howard jumps ahead Bresnahan, however, due to the fact that he was entirely a catcher during his peak, while Bresnahan spent significant time in the outfield during his best years.
12. sp Dave Stieb—The best pitcher in baseball from 1981 to 1985. While none of those years are Dizzy good, it was a real good 5-year peak in a time when it appeared more difficult to accomplish such and he was a decent pitcher for a few years after, as well.
13. rf Gavy Cravath—"He played ball, and lived his life, with a minimum amount of effort and nervous energy." Cravath gets extra credit for his minor league performance, especially as the star of the Minneapolis Millers.
14. c Roger Bresnahan—See Elston Howard. *There is no subtraction or demerit for positional versatility, just less extra credit for less time at catcher.*
15. sp Urban Shocker—Jumped back on my radar screen due to Joe Dimino’s pitcher numbers. Like the rest, short career but packed in quality seasons for the majority of that time. Similar to Dave Stieb, just a little less career value.

Required Disclosures:
18. sp Bucky Walters—Two excellent seasons, several years in the Top 10 in IP, and solid hitting . . . ingredients all for a very nice peak, although an excellent defense behind him does deserve some of the credit. Also picked up a bit of an assist from easier competition during WWII.
21. rp Rollie Fingers—The definition of a borderline HoM reliever, IMO. While he did not have the peak of other relief candidates (Hiller, Marshall), he did have a couple excellent years as well as several real good ones, which is important IMO considering the nature of relieving.
24. 2b Willie Randolph—The poor man’s Lou Whitaker, Randolph had a nice career in what appeared to be a tough era to dominate, but his peak value just isn’t enough to make my ballot.
34. sp Dick Redding—While he had a nice peak, in context it loses its impressiveness, and Cannon Ball Dick played at that level in too few years spread among too many poor seasons in a long career to be near my ballot.
60. cf Pete Browning—The earliest version of the all-hit, no field candidates eligible, Browning also benefited from the easier competition of a weaker league. After Brent’s AA translations I feel more comfortable with my placement of the Gladiator.
66. lf Bob Johnson—He did have a nice prime and he does deserve a couple years credit for his play in the PCL, but according to both WS and WARP Indian Bob has peak is just not enough to make up for a short career.
   113. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: May 28, 2007 at 05:40 AM (#2381028)
All right, you really can't go wrong here. 4 very strong candidates, plus Dale Murphy down in the 40s for me. A nice quiet election.

1. Carlton Fisk (new) I am a bit partial to catchers, and to career over peak, in general. And Fisk's ability to catch that many games and hit that well doesn't have a match in baseball history. Makes my PHoM this year.

2. George Brett (new) One of the greats, but he did have to move off of 3B. Definitely ahead of Fisk on peak, but I just find Fisk's overall achievements more impressive. Makes my PHoM this year.

3. Robin Yount (new) It wouldn't make sense that Yount would rank higher if he had spent more time in the minors, and not gotten off to a slow start, so hopefully folks aren't thinking that. Anyway, third in this company is nothing to be ashamed of. Makes my PHoM this year.

4. Nolan Ryan (new) Neither is coming in 4th, actually. I think he's not as overrated as some people do - like Fisk, there's nobody else like him. But still, he does have a lot flash that excites people more than it should.

5. Bus Clarkson (3) Parallels Elliot’s career, but with war credit he comes out ahead, and he presumably had more defensive value. The new MLE’s didn’t boost him that much, but it was enough to move him to the upper reaches of my ballot. Made my PHoM in 1997.

6. George Van Haltren (4) A very good player for a long time, even if he was never truly great. I can't see how people can have Beckley ahead of him when you compare them season-by-season. Made my PHoM in 1972.

7. Dick Redding (5) Seems to have a pretty good peak, and also has somewhat of a career argument. I still tend to think he’s close enough to Mendez that they both should be in or out. Made my PHoM in 1973.

8. Bob Johnson (6) I'm impressed by his consistency, he was an above-average player every year for 13 seasons. The more I look at him compared to the other corner OF candidates, the more impressed I am. Made my PHoM in 1992.

9. Bill Monroe (7) NOT surprised to see I was his Best Friend. A good player at an important defensive position, with a great reputation for his fielding. People like to promote the 1890s as underrepresented, but that doesn't mean the 00s and 10s are overrepresented. Anybody who wants to vote for Marvin Williams should look at Monroe as well. And honestly, outside of knowing what the actual numbers are, I don’t know of any particular advantage Nellie Fox has over him. Made my PHoM in 1939.

10. Gavvy Cravath (8) With the basic 07, 09-11 additions, this is where I have him. A better peak than Johnson, but less consistent. WARP isn't as fond of him as WS, but he compares well to Kiner & Keller. Made my PHoM in 1987.

11. Reggie Smith (9) For now, I think he’s the best of the 70’s OF glut. Very similar to Medwick/Johnson, but the lack of a peak holds him back. Win Shares really likes him. Not sure how I feel about those clutch numbers. WARP definitely has him with less fielding value than Wynn. Made my PHoM in 1995.

12. Tommy Leach (10) Dropped from the top of may ballot because I had to admit that Robinson was a better 3B candidate, and I wasn’t all that crazy about his argument either. I may have been overrating 3Bmen in general. Excellent fielder at important positions, OK hitter. One of the most complete players on the ballot. Made my PHoM in 1940.

13. Phil Rizzuto (12) He does come out as comparable to Sewell in total value, but it’s very defense-heavy, and even if it’s unfair, I’m less certain about that. Might deserve Minor League credit for 1940 (I’m not counting it at the moment.) Made my PHoM in 1997.

14. Norm Cash (13) A lot of good years, but I really think he's the Beckley of the 60s, with a shorter career (although that's not really much of a criticism). He really does look pretty similar to Hernandez, and for some reason has 6 Win Shares Gold Gloves to Keith's 1.

15. Dave Stieb (14) He does have quite a peak, although the career argument isn’t so hot. I’m not completely sure about any of the pitchers, but if I had to pick one, he’d be the guy.

16. Alejandro Oms (15) A reasonable candidate, but doesn’t stand out for me in any particular manner.
17. Willie Randolph (16) A Beckley-esque career, but it wasn’t as long, and there are more 2B candidates in his era. WS sees a little more of a peak than WARP, but in either case there still isn’t much there. But, yeah, better than Fox.
18. Elston Howard (17) I wasn't giving him enough credit – now I think I am.
19. Tony Perez (18) I really have a tough time differentiating him and Cash. He does have a good peak, but his late-70s years aren't much above average.
(19A Sam Thompson, 19B Cool Papa Bell)
20. Luis Tiant (19) After the deluge of 1970s-era pitchers, he’ll have to be reevaluated, but he could move up. Caught up on my pitcher evaluation system, and he didn't do so hot.
21. Bob Elliott (20) This year, when I looked at him, I liked him a little better than any of the 70’s 3B candidates, partly because there’s just so many of them.
22. Ben Taylor (21) Another solid candidate who might have been overlooked.
(22A Max Carey, 22B Rube Foster, 22C Nellie Fox)
23. Jack Clark (22) I really didn’t expect to see him so high, but compared to the rest of the 70s/80s OF glut here, he holds up well. Except for Staub, none of these guys were really that durable, and Clark hit better than any of them.
24. Dizzy Dean (23) Is his peak case really that much weaker than Keller and Kiner? I'm wondering. And with Stieb being a peak/prime guy, is he that much better than Dizzy?
25. Ron Cey (24) Better than I expected, extremely consistent. Clearly looks ahead of Bando and Nettles to me - better hitter than Nettles, better fielder than Bando, better peak than both of them. He's wasn't any worse than Evans, but didn't last as long. Major worry is overcrowding of 3B in this era.
26. Bobby Bonds (25) On further review, I was a bit too bullish on him when he first showed up, but he is quite good.
(26A Ralph Kiner, 26B Richie Ashburn)
27. Vern Stephens (26) Close to Rizzuto, but with the wartime discount and the sudden dropoff after 1950, not quite there.
28. Rusty Staub (27) A career candidate with some peak value, but also picked up WS by just hanging around. Definitely behind Perez.
29. Charley Jones (28) Even with the missed time credit, there's just not quite enough to make the ballot.
30. Don Newcombe (29) Basically the only pitcher candidate left from the 50s, and he has an interesting argument.

31. Orlando Cepeda (30) A little ways behind the other 1Bmen. They all have a stronger argument for one angle or another.
(31A Hughie Jennings, 31B George Sisler)
32. Roger Bresnahan (31) I understand his situation, but he doesn't even have 1000 games caught. A significantly better hitter than Howard, but I think if you give Elston fair credit, his career value wins out.
33. Ken Singleton
34. Bucky Walters (33) Given the wartime discount, his ERA+ of 115 is just not impressive enough for me.
35. Rollie Fingers (34) First, I’m not convinced he’s really ahead of all the other reliever candidates, and second, I’m not convinced that he would be worth induction even if he was.
36. Sal Bando
37. Tony Lazzeri
38. Dave Bancroft
39. Pete Browning (38) An outstanding hitter, but a truly awful fielder, and played most of his career in the weaker league. I wouldn't be upset if he got in, but I don't quite see it.
40. Lou Brock
   114. rawagman Posted: May 28, 2007 at 07:39 AM (#2381091)
dan b - you may want to update your ballot template.
To wit: "60. Rice" - J. or S.?
"29. Evans, Dw" - already elected - are you in denial?
"21. </b>Parker</b>" - I think you need to fix the HTML opener.
   115. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: May 28, 2007 at 11:53 AM (#2381135)
37 ballots tallied so far. Still missing ballots from: favre, Mark Shirk, Jeff M, Mike Webber, mulder and scully, Trevor P., Thane of Bagarath, Andrew M, Ken Fischer, Esteban Rivera, Patrick W, Max Parkinson, KJOK, the Commish, Tom D, Michael Bass, Carl Goetz, Dan Rosenheck and 'zop.

Since they didn't vote in the last 5 elections, jwinfrey and James Newburg have been removed from the list.

The election will end at 8 and results will be posted at 10. Since the three inductees are a foregone conclusion, I'm not going to e-mail anyone to remind them.
   116. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: May 28, 2007 at 02:31 PM (#2381204)
Speaking to Joe, we have decided to delay the election until 8 PM EDT tomorrow. Hopefully I will be able to be on time, since I will be out most of the day showing homes.
   117. Andrew M Posted: May 28, 2007 at 04:18 PM (#2381255)
1999 Ballot

1. George Brett
2. Carlton Fisk
3. Robin Yount
4. Nolan Ryan

I can’t decide whether it is easier or harder to rank guys you saw play many, many times. I think Brett was the best of these guys, though I freely admit that my memories of watching Brett in the postseason may have something to do with this perception. Fisk goes above Yount b/c of the bonus I give him for having been a catcher. Ryan was, well, Nolan Ryan.

5. Larry Doyle. The best offensive player on the best offensive team in the league 1911-1913. Doyle has a career OPS+ of 126, and he was consistently in the NL top 10 in HRs and slugging pct. He also won an MVP award and was an 8-time STATS NL all-star. By all accounts played extremely hard and captained the team for several years. Assessments of his fielding vary from not very good to poor.

6. Tommy Bridges. He’s not really a peak or career candidate. He finished his career with just fewer than 3,000 IP and his top ERA+ season is 147. In his favor, he’s probably missing 360 or so innings from 1944 and 45, and he had six seasons in which his ERA+ was between 140 and 147 (and ten seasons in which he was in the top 10 in the AL.) And while he wasn’t much of a workhorse, he did finish in the top 10 in innings five times.

7. Bob Johnson. Career OPS+ 138, 10 times in AL top 10. Comparable to Medwick and Averill in the lower tier of HoM OFs.

8. Tony Perez. Separates himself from the 1B pack by having a pretty good glove at 3B for 5 full seasons. Hung around long enough to accumulate almost 11,000 PAs, but his rate numbers would look better had he retired at age 35.

9. Luis Tiant
10. Dick Redding
Both of these guys were the best pitcher in their league at their peak and had careers of reasonable length. Bucky Walters is another guy in this category, as is Dave Stieb.

11. Dave Bancroft. Great glove, above average hitter, walked a lot. Had some durability issues
12. Phil Rizzuto. Great glove, probably not as good a hitter as Bancroft. Missing essentially 4 seasons at age 25-28.
13. Vern Stephens. Not as good a glove as the two guys above, but a much better hitter. Declined quickly at age 30, but before that had half a dozen seasons in the top 5 in HRs and total bases. Decent glove. Also did well in MVP voting, which surprised me.

14. Tommy John. I’m surprised how little support he gets when we’ve been pretty generous to long career pitchers. Too many innings of above-average to good pitching to ignore. Also, by reputation, an excellent fielder.

15. George J. Burns. Rarely missed a game, got on base a lot, could field and run, had 3 MVP caliber seasons (1914, 1917, 1919) and averaged close to 27 Win Shares a season for a decade. I’ve never been convinced Roush was the better player.

Next 12 (more or less in order)
Roger Bresnahan
Dave Stieb
Bucky Walters
Tommie Leach
Ken Singleton
Sal Bando
Willie Randolph
Alejandro Oms
Orlando Cepeda or Norm Cash
Geo. Van Haltren
Addie Joss
Ernie Lombardi

Required Disclosures:
Roger Bresnahan, Bucky Walters. Were on the ballot last week. Will be back again.
Willie Randolph. Hall of the Good to Very Good.
Rollie Fingers. I guess like relief pitchers less than most voters, and I’m not sure I would rank Fingers as high as others even among relief pitchers.
Pete Browning. Too many questions/doubts.
   118. favre Posted: May 28, 2007 at 04:42 PM (#2381271)
I consider myself a prime voter, using a combination of OPS+/PA, ERA+/IP, and WS on a season-by-season basis. I also give weight to underrepresented eras and positions.

1. George Brett
2. Robin Yount
3. Charley Jones

I have Jones above Fisk and Ryan. Pudge and Lynn had better careers than Charley—Fisk, in fact, had a better career than any catcher except Gibson (and maybe Berra). But on a season-to-season basis, Jones had a couple more good years, particularly with blacklisting credit, and that gives him the last elect-me spot.

4. Carlton Fisk
5. Nolan Ryan
6. Vic Willis

These three guys are very close in my system. Fisk gets a bonus as a catcher, putting him at the top. Ryan’s IP is a little more impressive compared to his contemporaries than Willis, so he comes next. Willis pitched 4000 IP with an ERA+ of 118 (and seasons of 167, 155, and 154). That’s comparable to Faber (4086/119) and Lyons (4161/118), and a whole lot better than Ruffing (4344/109).

7. Dave Stieb
8. Dale Murphy
9. Bucky Walters

Stieb and Murphy are the kind of players that tend to I like. Stieb has six seasons higher than a 130 ERA+; the Murph had six seasons around 150 OPS+ while playing CF. Gets a B- grade from WS for his defense, but it also gives him two Gold Gloves, and his contemporaries seemed to think he was good with the leather as well.

While I recognize that Walters’ 1939-’42 peak was helped by outstanding defenses behind him, he also pitched well during and immediately after the war, when his outstanding defences were either in the service or growing old. Great to see him in the top ten.

10. Roger Bresnahan
11. Bus Clarkson

Another player I’m happy to see in the top ten. I’m not surprised; with Trouppe elected, Bresnahan is clearly the best catcher out there (and, frankly, I like him better than Trouppe) . We have a twenty year gap at catcher from 1891-1911. I understand the arguments against filling slots, but in this case I tend to think we have underestimated how difficult the position was at the turn of the 20th Century. Bresnahan was in the top six in OPB seven times from 1903-1914; he did equally well in another five seasons, but didn’t have the PA’s to qualify for the title. That’s a darned impressive run for a catcher.

Bus Clarkson makes it onto my ballot for the first time. I’m using Dr. C’s original MLE’s rather than the upgrades, but even those show that Clarkson was the best third basemen of the early 1940s, and arguably the best shortstop.

12. Tommy Leach
13. Gavvy Cravath

Cravath averaged a 161 OPS+ from ages 32-36, and the data from the minor leagues suggests that was not a fluke. Tommy Leach has 324 career WS, played great defence at two key positions, and could hit a little.

14. Ken Singleton
15. Larry Doyle

We don’t have a lot of 1970s OFr’s: only Stargell, Yaz, Reggie, Wynn, and Dewey so far (and Dewey wasn't all that good in the 70s). Singleton’s nine appearances in the OBP-top ten gets him a ballot spot. Larry Doyle has been in my top twenty-five or so for decades; there’s just not a lot of second basemen out there with a career 126 OPS+.

16. Tony Perez
17. Bob Elliott
18. Willie Randolph
19. Frank Howard
20. Wally Schang

Not in my top fifteen:

Willie Randolph Was on my ballot last year, and will be back.

Pete Browning Brent/Daryn’s AA projections show he wasn’t a historic hitter, and he also had some playing time issues. Basically confirms what I’ve believed for a while: excellent hitter, mediocre defence, injury problems, same resume’ as a number of other OFers.

Rollie Fingers I’m an ERA+/Win Shares guy, and Fingers does not look good using either system.

Dick Redding. Has been compared to Orel Hershiser. Seems apt: had a couple of big years which gives him an argument, but not quite enough for induction.

Bob Johnson Not really distinguishable from other OF’rs with around 300 career WS.
   119. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: May 28, 2007 at 05:53 PM (#2381310)
1999 ballot

Brett, Fisk, and Yount all make my PHOM; Ryan, Bresnahan, and Doyle are on deck.

1. George Brett (x, PHOM) – 3rd best 3rd baseman of all-time. Odd to think that none of them played prior to 1950.

2. Carlton Fisk (x, PHOM) – Very close to Yount, it is a toss-up. LOOOOONG career for a catcher.

3. Robin Yount (x, PHOM) – May beat out Fisk if he had spent his entire career at SS. Still an easy HOMer.

4. Nolan Ryan (x) – There are many different types of overrated players, those that are in the HOF and don’t’ belong, those that are considered decent but were actually pretty bad, etc. I think that Nolan Ryan, however, would be my starting pitcher on the all overrated but still belongs in the HOF/HOM.

5. Dick Redding (1, PHOM) – 2nd best NeL pitcher of the dead ball era after Smokey Joe Williams and that ain’t bad. I like his peak as much as Mendez’ and he had more career. Seems to be our best backlog pitcher.

6. Hugh Duffy (2, PHOM) – Best of the 1890’s CF trio based on his superior peak. I agree with WS that Duffy deserves some credit for his team over performing not only their pythag but also their RS and RA projections. That said, I still think WS overrates Duffy’s peak for other reasons.

7. Bucky Walters (3, PHOM) – Very good pitcher with a nice peak. He was baseball’s best pitcher in 1939 and 1940, could hit a little too. I am looking over how his defense may have artificially raised his IP numbers, but I am still pretty sure that I like him more than my next few pitchers.

8. Dave Stieb (x, PHOM) – Essentially tied with Walters. Bucky is ahead on his two year peak, but I could see it go either way.

9. Elston Howard (4, PHOM) – The more I look at him the more he looks like Quincey Trouppe. Both were good hitting catchers with nice peaks who played decent portions of their careers at other positions. However, I prefer Quincey’s time at 3B to Elston’s time in the OF and Quincey played more baseball while Elston sat behind Yogi Berra.

10. Pete Browning (5, PHOM) – Quite possibly the best hitter on the board right now. However, concerns about the quality of the 1880’s AA keep him below Keller and Kiner for me. Our recent discussion on Charley Jones has made me realize that Browning has many of the same problems Jones does and so he falls a few spots.

11. Gavvy Cravath (6, PHOM) – Finally coming around on him. Great peak in the Majors and he definitely deserves MiL credit.

12. Dizzy Dean (7, PHOM) – High peak pitcher who I view as Koufax Lite. His peak wasn’t quite as good, he had a little less career, and he wasn’t even has bad of a hitter. Still ballot worthy, however.

13. Rollie Fingers (8, PHOM) – Not 100% sure what to do with him. Out of the relievers we have seen thus far I would have to agree that he is second to Wilhelm. Out of the relievers that we can look at I only prefer Wilhelm and Gossage. If he isn’t elected this year, I could seem him moving wildly as we look at more relievers. Leaps over Oms this week.

14. Alejandro Oms (9, PHOM) – I see him as similar to, but slightly better than, George Van Haltren. I also prefere Oms to HOMer Willard Brown. He had a low peak but it was a long one that accrued value in the Billy Williams/Al Kaline mold.

15. Vic Willis (10, PHOM) – First time on my ballot. He made a jump into my top 25 about 30 or 40 years ago and now I have finally decided to vote for him. He has a great DERA and he was a horse for some very good pitching staff

16-20 Bresnahan, Doyle, GVH, Shocker
21-25 McGraw, Rosen, C. Jones, Newcombe
26-30 Singleton, Guerrero, Elliot, Rizzuto, Randolph
31-35 Da. Murphy, F. Howard, Tiant, Burns, Cepeda
36-40 Reuschel, Lundy, Chance, Pesky, Munson
41-45 Parker, Bancroft, Cey, Thomas, Concepcion
46-50 Quisenberry, Kaat, Perez, Monroe, Ryan
51-55 Stephens, H. Wilson, B. Johnson, Cicotte, Traynor
56-60 Easter, Bonds, Bando, Cash, Schang

Required Disclosures:


Beckley – Not enough peak. Okay, I know that he was elected but I am just doing this for old time’s sake…

C. Jones – I do not give Jones full credit for his missing years as I believe that he was not some innocent that was done in by the big, bad man. There is a chance that he acted the way he did in order to sever ties with Boston, in which case the league had some reason for acting the way that it did. However, I do give him one full season of credit (which in my system is better than two half seasons)because he wasn’t the only guilty party. Even with credit there are many other questions like league strength, deviations from the mean, and extrapolating 60-80 game seasons into 162 game seasons. All of these cause some downward pressure on Jones best seasons (as well as some upward pressure on some of his worst) and pull him down a bit. I have to say that I can see no way in which he is better than Charlie Keller, Jimmy Wynn, or even Gavvy Cravath. Not the worst choice we will have made, but I think he gets a boost because he was hard done by and that really isn’t fair to other players.

Bob Johnson – I don’t really understand his candidacy. High hitting era, high standard deviation, nothing special for his era, not a great peak. He is in the 50’s only because everyone seems to think he is worthy.

Newbies:

Dale Murphy – Like Guerrero last year I originally sketched Murphy in for my ballot, but he falls just short. His peak is very comparable to HOMers Wynn, Doby, and Averill as well as Ale Oms (14th this year). However, his prime is weaker than all three. Murphy is more similar to Wally Berger and Frank Howard than the above quartet.

Frank Tanana – Decent pitcher, better than I had thought. I always picture him as a soft tossing Tiger, not the hard thrower he was in his youth. While the top of my backlog is weaker than it has ever been, the middle is probably stronger. If Tanana had been eligible 60 years ago he would have been in my top 35, now he misses my top 70.
   120. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: May 28, 2007 at 06:36 PM (#2381351)
since I will be out most of the day showing homes.

Commerce must stop for the HOM!!! The business of America is HOMing.
   121. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: May 28, 2007 at 06:51 PM (#2381361)
The business of America is HOMing.


I don't think Calvin Coolidge said that. :-)
   122. dan b Posted: May 28, 2007 at 08:44 PM (#2381470)
dan b - you may want to update your ballot template.

Thanks. It's fixed.
   123. Thane of Bagarth Posted: May 28, 2007 at 08:58 PM (#2381479)
1999 Ballot
My ranking system heavily weights 5 year peaks, but additional career value can add up, too. I rely primarily on the uberstats, with about a 60/40 split between WARP and WS. I’m rather liberal with war and minor league credit. I use a catcher bonus of up to 10% based on the proportion of a player’s career spent behind the plate.

I think all of the WARP #s I’m using were up to date as of the beginning of December. I have already run the numbers for all “serious” eligibles (i.e. >200 career Win Shares) through the 2006 election.

1) George Brett
The best of this year’s stellar new eligible crop. I have him as the third best 3B of all time behind Schmidt and Boggs.

2) Robin Yount
I was a little surprised he came out second in my rankings, but when I double-checked his numbers he’s not too far behind Brett in both career and 5-year peak according to WARP3 and Win Shares.

3) Nolan Ryan
Ryan’s actually got the highest career WARP3 of the new guys, but his Win Shares lag behind a bit. Still a no-brainer.

4) Carlton Fisk
I have him a little behind Carter in overall catcher rankings. Even with a catcher bonus he doesn’t crack an elect-me spot this year.

5) Tony Perez
Perez is not terribly dissimilar from Staub—they’re almost identical by Win Shares. His peak according to WARP is substantially better than Staub’s (46.6 to 40.5) and he’s got more career value to boot (109.5 to 102.7), so Tony gets the edge.

6) Rusty Staub
By Win Shares he looks like a solid HoMer: 358 career, 145 top-5 consecutive. By WARP he’s a bit more marginal: 40.5 top 5 WARP3 isn’t super (albeit better than Beckley), but 102.7 career is respectable.

7) Frank Tanana
His WARP totals are very good (111 WARP3 career, 47 top 5 seasons), but Win Shares has him as run of the mill. I lean a little more towards WARP in my rankings so Tanana is in the top half of the ballot this year.

8) Willie Randolph
He put up very good career value (310+ WS, 115+ WARP3), especially for 2nd baseman, but his 5-year peak is nothing special (42 WARP3, 114 WS). Definitely deserving of induction, eventually, if not this year.

9) Bucky Walters
A very good pitcher…I’m not convinced that he needs to be docked for the superb Reds defense more than the DTs already do.

10) Ben Taylor
The lack of data from his prime years makes all of this highly speculative, but I’m ranking him as if he was Keith Hernandez with a little less peak and more career (career totals of around 105 WARP3 and 320 Win Shares; with top 5s of 46 and 135, respectively).

11) Bob Johnson
100 WARP3, 287 WS for career plus Minor League credit makes him a legit HoM candidate.

12) Dick Redding
2nd best NeL pitcher of the deaball era, I’m hoping we’ll give him his due eventually.

13) Bobby Bonds
Similar in career value to Indian Bob (93 WARP3, 302 WS). 149 WS in top five consecutive seasons is impressive, though not unprecedented.

14) Graig Nettles
Although his peak numbers are a little lower than Bonds & Singleton, career totals are a little better…Nettles ends up somewhere in the middle.

15) George Van Haltren
GVH seems to be an obvious HoMer if you just look at Win Shares (344 career, 133 top 5 consecutive—before season length adjustments); however, WARP (especially WARP3) is not nearly as favorable: 86.5 career, 36.4 top 5.

The Rest of the Top 50

16) Dale Murphy

17) Ken Singleton

18) Luis Tiant

19) Bill Monroe

20) Jimmy Ryan

21) Gavy Cravath—A heavy dose of MiL credit gives him the career bulk, which, when added to his peak, makes him a ballot contender.
22) Dizzy Trout
23) Tommy John
24) Buddy Bell
25) Charley Jones—Always close to the ballot, if not on it. I give him credit for 2 blackball/blacklist/whatever years.
26) Sam Rice
27) Tommy Leach
28) Bus Clarkson
29) Rabbit Maranville
30) Norm Cash
31) Jim Kaat
32) Dave Parker
33) Reggie Smith
34) Jack Clark
35) Buzz Arlett
36) Burleigh Grimes
37) Jack Quinn
38) Bob Elliot
39) Jose Cruz
40) Harry Hooper
41) Dave Concepcion
42) Ron Cey
43) Vada Pinson
44) Phil Rizzuto
45) Alejandro Oms
46) Hugh Duffy
47) Rick Reuschel
48) Orlando Cepeda
49) Cesar Cedeno
50) Dick Lundy

Returning Consensus Top 10 Not in My Top 100:
Roger Bresnahan— I have him ranked very closely to Thurman Munson. I like the idea of ranking him higher, but every which way I look at his numbers, including a catcher bonus, I just can’t see him all that close to my ballot.
Rollie Fingers—Out of my top 100. I may be underrating relievers as a whole, but I modified my rankings to help closers/firemen when I originally had Wilhelm well below most other voters. Those adjustments help Rollie, but currently I can’t see adjusting them more to bring him closer to my ballot. I like Goose Gossage a lot more.
Pete Browning— He takes a real beating in the WARP1-3 conversions. I have voted for him in the past, but right now I’ve got him falling farther and farther behind the real ballot contenders.
   124. Michael Bass Posted: May 28, 2007 at 10:03 PM (#2381518)
I use WARP3 as my primary tool, with mental adjustments to downgrade (not eliminate, but downgrade) the timeline. I prefer gloves with moderate bats to bats with terrible gloves; Killebrew ise not in my PHOM, though he's in the queue. I'm peak-oriented, but my system is much more friendly to long career candidates than it once was, when those long careers stand out, or have an extended prime, if not an outstanding peaks.

PHOM this year is Brett, Young, Ryan


1. George Brett (PHOM 1999) - Starting a trend this year, I was somewhat disappointed by Brett, not close to Schimidt, I'm quite sure Mathews was better as well, and I'd be I could find another candidate or two if I looked hard enough. Not enough defensive value, both from mediocre 3B and too much time off him. Still an obvious HOMer, but more around the midline than I thought.

2. Robin Yount (PHOM 1999) - About where I thought he'd be. Lot of talk about Ernie Banks, which is a fair baseline to compare them. Much more value in CF than Banks had at 1B, but Banks completely smacks Yount around at shortstop.

3. Nolan Ryan (PHOM 1999) - Similar career shape to Frank Tanana, though his outside peak years had about 2 wins a year for 15 years more value than Tanana's did, so here we are. Overrated massively by the general public, underrated massively by anyone who considers him not a HOMer.

4. Carlton Fisk - He comes up just shy, even with a nice catcher bonus. He's a career candidate competing with Nolan Ryan; unless your name is Pete Rose, a pure career candidate is not going to be beating Nolan Ryan.

5. Fred Dunlap (PHOM 1926) - I'm close to alone on this one. My case for him is simple, he was one of baseball's best players for 6 straight years; I don't believe you'll find anyone who was as highly ranked in baseball as Dunlap was for even 4 or 5 straight years who we have not elected. Win shares underrates him, just as it overrates pitchers from the era. Very good hitter, great fielder from an era when fielding meant more.

6. Bob Elliot (PHOM 1968) - Never understood the lack of love for him. I have always viewed him as very close, just short of Stan Hack. This time around, I liked Hack a lot, so Elliot slots in very highly, as we're real deep into the backlog at this point.

7. Bob Johnson (PHOM 1971) - Maybe the foremost all-prime career. Gets no minor league credit despite his late start (it was investigated at the time, he was just a late bloomer). Like Elliot takes a slight minus from his raw stats for the inflated 44-45 years when they were playing with a bunch of AA guys. Clockwork hitter for 12 of his 13 years.

8. Phil Rizzuto (PHOM 1972) - Scooter is the first pure glove man on my ballot; an outstanding shortstop with an average bat (MVP level the year he was more than an average bat). Add in 3 years of war credit (which came right in the middle of his best years), and you get him to this spot.

9. Rabbit Maranville (PHOM 1976) - Rizzuto for an earlier generation. Longer career (gets nearly a year of war credit), doesn't have the one year peak of Rizzuto, and was a moderately worse hitter. But an amazing fielder forever. I'll be a big Ozzie supporter, and this guy was Ozzie-lite.

10. Bucky Walters (PHOM 1979) - Had a very nice peak just before the war, and some shoulder seasons before that and during the war.

11. Dick Redding (PHOM 1981) - Had a nice career length, and the numbers indicate a strong peak as well. Not long enough career or high enough peak to go higher than this, but enough of both to land here.

12. Dave Concepcion (PHOM 1994) - Well, I'm voting for Rizzuto and Maranville, so this vote should shock no one. Good career value, plenty of prime value, lacks Rizzuto's peak or Maranville's career, and is thus 3rd of the 3.

13. Urban Shocker (PHOM 1942) - Nice prime, nice 1920-1923 peak, all in the strong league at the time.

14. Burleigh Grimes (PHOM 1986) - Long career, wrong league, but some nice seasons along the way. He's in my view what Eppa Rixey (who I didn't like) was to most other people. Not overly enthused by him, or anyone else on this portion of the ballot (after Rizzuto I'd say), but we're deep into the backlog, both for PHOM purposes and for my ballot.

15. Dave Bancroft (PHOM 1987) - Rizzuto-esque candidate. A little more consistent bat, not quite the glove, though still real good with it. Long career, plenty of prime.

16. Bill Monroe (PHOM 1930) - Largely forgotten 2B from the first documented days of the Negro Leagues, was a solid glove a pretty good bat for a long time. In retrospect, wish we'd centered on him, rather than Grant, about whom there was very little evidence and a whole lot of guesswork.
17. Thurman Munson (PHOM 1987) - Plenty of defense, plenty of hitting, durable. I'm honestly surprised he doesn't get more support, the untimely death didn't really cut much off his career, he left behind a very strong HOM case.
18. Frank Tanana - More peak than you'd think, probably will get a PHOM, but would have been nice to see more out of his tailoff than was actually delivered.
19. Dizzy Dean (PHOM 1988) - I wonder how many ballots have Beckley and Dean side by side. Anyway, all peak, obviously, and enough of it to justify a ballot position if you're a peakster.
20. Lave Cross (PHOM 1988) - Back to the career, plus a touch of catching credit (even when not catching, he played a tough position and played it well).
21. Tony Perez (PHOM 1995) - Lots of career, and plenty of prime as well. Never understood the irritation many statheads expressed when he got in. Sure there are better players out, but he is not any sort of slouch by the Hall's induction standards. If he'd stayed at 3B longer, he'd be a particularly obvious HOMer.
22. Willie Randolph (PHOM 1998) - After dumping on Lynn so hard for durability concerns, I took a second look at Randolph before submitting this ballot. In the end, I feel he was significantly better than Lynn in all but 1-year peak, but I do take back my harsher words for Lynn, as I understand how one could support a candidacy of his type better now.
23. Buddy Bell (PHOM 1996) - Never though I'd be PHOMing Bell, but here we are. Nearly identical to Nettles, who is next in the queue. Neither had a great peak, but had a strong career that oozed with prime.
24. Graig Nettles (PHOM 1997) - See Bell. Maybe the best counter to the "batting average is everything" people.


Other top 10 returnees



62. Pete Browning - Not in love, no fielding, career is short for an OF.
27. Rollie Fingers - Might squeeze into my PHOM one day, but I believe the importance of relievers is vastly overblown by baseball men, and I don't feel compelled to go along with it too much. If pressed on it, I'd say Wilhelm, Gossage, and Rivera were the only HOM relievers, with a couple others (including Fingers) right on the borderline.
83. Roger Bresnahan - Never been on his bandwagon, I don't bump people to fill "gaps" in HOM positional coverage, and my view is he needs such a bump to be ballot worthy.
114. Hugh Duffy - Not a Win Shares guy, so not a fan in general.
85. Gavvy Cravath - Even with ample minor league credit, his big league career doesn't blow me away enough to get him near HOM-worthy. Weak league, friendly home park.
55. Charley Jones - Even with blacklist credit, he just didn't have a long enough career for an OF of this era. I'd rather have Dunlap a million times over.



Other newcomers

28. Dale Murphy - Nice peak, but not historic enough to back up his short career. Is in the mix for the last couple PHOM slots.
   125. Michael Bass Posted: May 28, 2007 at 10:04 PM (#2381519)
I use WARP3 as my primary tool, with mental adjustments to downgrade (not eliminate, but downgrade) the timeline. I prefer gloves with moderate bats to bats with terrible gloves; Killebrew ise not in my PHOM, though he's in the queue. I'm peak-oriented, but my system is much more friendly to long career candidates than it once was, when those long careers stand out, or have an extended prime, if not an outstanding peaks.

PHOM this year is Brett, Young, Ryan


1. George Brett (PHOM 1999) - Starting a trend this year, I was somewhat disappointed by Brett, not close to Schimidt, I'm quite sure Mathews was better as well, and I'd be I could find another candidate or two if I looked hard enough. Not enough defensive value, both from mediocre 3B and too much time off him. Still an obvious HOMer, but more around the midline than I thought.

2. Robin Yount (PHOM 1999) - About where I thought he'd be. Lot of talk about Ernie Banks, which is a fair baseline to compare them. Much more value in CF than Banks had at 1B, but Banks completely smacks Yount around at shortstop.

3. Nolan Ryan (PHOM 1999) - Similar career shape to Frank Tanana, though his outside peak years had about 2 wins a year for 15 years more value than Tanana's did, so here we are. Overrated massively by the general public, underrated massively by anyone who considers him not a HOMer.

4. Carlton Fisk - He comes up just shy, even with a nice catcher bonus. He's a career candidate competing with Nolan Ryan; unless your name is Pete Rose, a pure career candidate is not going to be beating Nolan Ryan.

5. Fred Dunlap (PHOM 1926) - I'm close to alone on this one. My case for him is simple, he was one of baseball's best players for 6 straight years; I don't believe you'll find anyone who was as highly ranked in baseball as Dunlap was for even 4 or 5 straight years who we have not elected. Win shares underrates him, just as it overrates pitchers from the era. Very good hitter, great fielder from an era when fielding meant more.

6. Bob Elliot (PHOM 1968) - Never understood the lack of love for him. I have always viewed him as very close, just short of Stan Hack. This time around, I liked Hack a lot, so Elliot slots in very highly, as we're real deep into the backlog at this point.

7. Bob Johnson (PHOM 1971) - Maybe the foremost all-prime career. Gets no minor league credit despite his late start (it was investigated at the time, he was just a late bloomer). Like Elliot takes a slight minus from his raw stats for the inflated 44-45 years when they were playing with a bunch of AA guys. Clockwork hitter for 12 of his 13 years.

8. Phil Rizzuto (PHOM 1972) - Scooter is the first pure glove man on my ballot; an outstanding shortstop with an average bat (MVP level the year he was more than an average bat). Add in 3 years of war credit (which came right in the middle of his best years), and you get him to this spot.

9. Rabbit Maranville (PHOM 1976) - Rizzuto for an earlier generation. Longer career (gets nearly a year of war credit), doesn't have the one year peak of Rizzuto, and was a moderately worse hitter. But an amazing fielder forever. I'll be a big Ozzie supporter, and this guy was Ozzie-lite.

10. Bucky Walters (PHOM 1979) - Had a very nice peak just before the war, and some shoulder seasons before that and during the war.

11. Dick Redding (PHOM 1981) - Had a nice career length, and the numbers indicate a strong peak as well. Not long enough career or high enough peak to go higher than this, but enough of both to land here.

12. Dave Concepcion (PHOM 1994) - Well, I'm voting for Rizzuto and Maranville, so this vote should shock no one. Good career value, plenty of prime value, lacks Rizzuto's peak or Maranville's career, and is thus 3rd of the 3.

13. Urban Shocker (PHOM 1942) - Nice prime, nice 1920-1923 peak, all in the strong league at the time.

14. Burleigh Grimes (PHOM 1986) - Long career, wrong league, but some nice seasons along the way. He's in my view what Eppa Rixey (who I didn't like) was to most other people. Not overly enthused by him, or anyone else on this portion of the ballot (after Rizzuto I'd say), but we're deep into the backlog, both for PHOM purposes and for my ballot.

15. Dave Bancroft (PHOM 1987) - Rizzuto-esque candidate. A little more consistent bat, not quite the glove, though still real good with it. Long career, plenty of prime.

16. Bill Monroe (PHOM 1930) - Largely forgotten 2B from the first documented days of the Negro Leagues, was a solid glove a pretty good bat for a long time. In retrospect, wish we'd centered on him, rather than Grant, about whom there was very little evidence and a whole lot of guesswork.
17. Thurman Munson (PHOM 1987) - Plenty of defense, plenty of hitting, durable. I'm honestly surprised he doesn't get more support, the untimely death didn't really cut much off his career, he left behind a very strong HOM case.
18. Frank Tanana - More peak than you'd think, probably will get a PHOM, but would have been nice to see more out of his tailoff than was actually delivered.
19. Dizzy Dean (PHOM 1988) - I wonder how many ballots have Beckley and Dean side by side. Anyway, all peak, obviously, and enough of it to justify a ballot position if you're a peakster.
20. Lave Cross (PHOM 1988) - Back to the career, plus a touch of catching credit (even when not catching, he played a tough position and played it well).
21. Tony Perez (PHOM 1995) - Lots of career, and plenty of prime as well. Never understood the irritation many statheads expressed when he got in. Sure there are better players out, but he is not any sort of slouch by the Hall's induction standards. If he'd stayed at 3B longer, he'd be a particularly obvious HOMer.
22. Willie Randolph (PHOM 1998) - After dumping on Lynn so hard for durability concerns, I took a second look at Randolph before submitting this ballot. In the end, I feel he was significantly better than Lynn in all but 1-year peak, but I do take back my harsher words for Lynn, as I understand how one could support a candidacy of his type better now.
23. Buddy Bell (PHOM 1996) - Never though I'd be PHOMing Bell, but here we are. Nearly identical to Nettles, who is next in the queue. Neither had a great peak, but had a strong career that oozed with prime.
24. Graig Nettles (PHOM 1997) - See Bell. Maybe the best counter to the "batting average is everything" people.


Other top 10 returnees



62. Pete Browning - Not in love, no fielding, career is short for an OF.
27. Rollie Fingers - Might squeeze into my PHOM one day, but I believe the importance of relievers is vastly overblown by baseball men, and I don't feel compelled to go along with it too much. If pressed on it, I'd say Wilhelm, Gossage, and Rivera were the only HOM relievers, with a couple others (including Fingers) right on the borderline.
83. Roger Bresnahan - Never been on his bandwagon, I don't bump people to fill "gaps" in HOM positional coverage, and my view is he needs such a bump to be ballot worthy.
114. Hugh Duffy - Not a Win Shares guy, so not a fan in general.
85. Gavvy Cravath - Even with ample minor league credit, his big league career doesn't blow me away enough to get him near HOM-worthy. Weak league, friendly home park.
55. Charley Jones - Even with blacklist credit, he just didn't have a long enough career for an OF of this era. I'd rather have Dunlap a million times over.



Other newcomers

28. Dale Murphy - Nice peak, but not historic enough to back up his short career. Is in the mix for the last couple PHOM slots.
   126. Michael Bass Posted: May 28, 2007 at 10:05 PM (#2381520)
Ack, sorry for the double post, I'm awful at posting ballots, especially last minute holiday ballots.
   127. rawagman Posted: May 29, 2007 at 07:53 AM (#2382296)
From the Mark Shirk ballot:
16-20 Bresnahan, Doyle, GVH, Shocker
21-25 McGraw, Rosen, C. Jones, Newcombe


You have ten slots in your high backlog, but only eight players.
   128. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: May 29, 2007 at 11:38 AM (#2382311)
42 ballots tallied so far. Still missing ballots from: Jeff M, Mike Webber, mulder and scully, Trevor P., Ken Fischer, Esteban Rivera, Patrick W, Max Parkinson, KJOK, the Commish, Tom D, Carl Goetz, Dan Rosenheck and 'zop.

Since they didn't vote in the last 5 elections, jwinfrey and James Newburg have been removed from the list.

The election will end at 8 and results will be posted at 10. Since the three inductees are a foregone conclusion, I'm not going to e-mail anyone to remind them.
   129. Esteban Rivera Posted: May 29, 2007 at 07:41 PM (#2382756)
1999 Ballot:

1. George Brett – It says something about the player he was when he is number one with this incoming crop of newbies.

2. Robin Yount – Edged by Brett but this is an absolutely fabulous career.

3. Carlton Fisk – Edges Ryan in the category of players who were really fricking old and still getting it done beyond all reason.

4. Nolan Ryan – Bests the rest of the backlog convincingly.

5. Pete Browning - Was a heck of a hitter and did it under tremendous duress. I buy the "greatness can't take full advantage off lower competition" idea. Proved he could hold his own in the Player's League.

6. Hugh Duffy - His credentials are that he was for a time one of the best players and he produced during the 90's. Was an outstanding defensive outfielder.

7. Charley Jones – Fantastic hitter from the 19th century. Gets some credit for blacklisting from me.

8. Roger Bresnahan - I believe his versatility is a major plus in his case. I can understand not giving him credit if you think his playing time at other positions was worthless but when he was an outfielder he was one of the best ones in the league.

9. Bill Monroe - Seems to be one of the best second basemen of his time.

10. Rollie Fingers – Given some post-season credit. His career taken all together is around the bubble.

11. Tony Perez - See him similar to Beckley in terms of value. His prime/career value is pretty good.

12. Mickey Welch - The 300 game winner. The discussion of the past couple of “years” has made me realize that Welch should be a HOMer. Is not that far behind Keefe.

13. Bob Johnson – Have been overlooking Indian Bob. PCL credit counterbalances any war discounts.

14. Vic Willis –Blame the cohort analysis for making me take another look at Vic.

15. Bob Elliott – The post someone made about holding his outfield time against him was true in my case. Not as much an outfielder as I had previously thought.

Not on ballot but made Top 10:

Bucky Walters – Actually not a bad candidate but the breaks don’t go his way (war years, sterling defenses) and are enough to keep him off my ballot.

Dick Redding – Too much uncertainty surrounding him to put him on my ballot.

Willie Randolph – Needs a little more peak to crack the top 15 (especially with this new class). His placement is still a bit volatile.
   130. KJOK Posted: May 29, 2007 at 08:02 PM (#2382777)
Using OWP w/playing time, Player Overall Wins Score, and defense (Win Shares/BP/Fielding Runs) for position players, applied to .500 baseline. Using Runs Saved Above Average, Player Overall WInsScore and Support Neutral Fibonacci Wins for Pitchers. For Position Players AND Pitchers, heavily weight comparison vs. contemporaries, and lightly look at WARP1 and Win Shares.

1. GEORGE BRETT, 3B. 44 POW, 432 Win Shares, 121 WARP1, 508 RCAP & .663 OWP in 11,624 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Played more 1B/DH than I remembered, but the man could hit.

2. CARLTON FISK, C. 39 POW, 368 Win Shares, 107 WARP1, 355 RCAP & .571 OWP in 9,853 PA’s. Def: VERY GOOD. Hung on as a mediocre catcher for a long time, but before that he was great.

3. ROBIN YOUNT, SS/CF. 41 POW, 423 Win Shares, 1115 WARP1, 408 RCAP & .580 OWP in 12,249 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Great SS, Good CF.

4. NOLAN RYAN, P.22 POW, 334 Win Shares, 139 WARP1, 205 RSAA, 239 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 112 ERA+ in 5,386 innings. May be overrated, but still was very good for many years.

5. ROGER BRESNAHAN, C. 23 POW, 231 Win Shares, 75 WARP1, 282 RCAP & .651 OWP in 5,373 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. He’s no Berra, but was best Catcher from 1880s – 1915.

6. JOHN McGRAW, 3B. 20 POW, 78 WARP1, 459 RCAP & .727 OWP in 4,909 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Was CAREER ALL-TIME OBP% leader until Ruth qualifies in 1923, EVEN adjusting for League, and is STILL #3 behind Williams and Ruth. AND he played 3B, where offensive output was generally very low. Plus led his team to 3 consecutive championships. Oh, AND at least 2nd best 3B between 1875-1900!

7. FRANK CHANCE, 1B. 23 POW, 237 Win Shares, 72 WARP1, 308 RCAP & .720 OWP in 5,099 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Excellent hitter and good fielder back when 1st base was MUCH more important defensively. Top seasons better than Beckley’s best. Deadball era offensive stars continue to get no respect….

8. BOB JOHNSON, LF. 36 POW, 287 Win Shares, 102 WARP1, 319 RCAP & .651 OWP in 8,047 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Many many very very good seasons. Best OF candidate not elected.

9. REGGIE SMITH, CF/RF. 32 POW, 325 Win Shares, 99 WARP1, 281 RCAP & .653 OWP in 8,050 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Hit like a 1st baseman, yet could play multiple defensive positions well.

10. WILLIE RANDOLPH, 2B. 37 POW, 312 Win Shares, 108 WARP1, 235 RCAP & .550 OWP in 9,462 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT. Super glove at important defensive position, played a long time, and he could hit too.

11. TONY MULLANE, P.30 POW, 399 Win Shares, 89 WARP1, 241 RSAA, 240 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 118 ERA+ in 4,531(!) innings. He could hit a little too. Had a very good career AND some really good individual seasons. AA discount keeps him from being a TOP 5 ballot player.

12. DAVE BANCROFT, SS. 36 POW, 269 Win Shares, 111 WARP1, 157 RCAP & .498 OWP in 8,244 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT. Similar to Bobby Wallace and Ozzie Smith, so surprised he’s not getting more votes.

13. BUS CLARKSON, SS/3B. Estimated 123 OPS+ over 8,478 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Hitting far exceeds guys like Marcelle, Dandridge, etc.

14. DICK REDDING, P. 183 MLE Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 114 MLE ERA+ in 3,556 innings. Was the 2nd best Negro League Pitcher in his era, behind only Williams.

15. JIM FREGOSI, SS. 26 POW, 76 WARP1, 203 RCAP & .565 OWP in 7,402 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Just needs a little more something – defense, or career length, etc. – but still historically underrated, and perhaps just as good as Dobie Moore and better than Concepcion.


LEFT OFF THE BALLOT:

NEWBIES OF NOTE:

DALE MURPHY, CF. 11 POW, 294 Win Shares, 92 WARP1, 134 RCAP & .569 OWP in 9,040 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Too many mediocre years for an outfielder.

RETURNEES:

PETE BROWNING, CF/LF. 28 POW, 95 WARP1, 478 RCAP & .745 OWP in 5,315 PAs. Def: POOR. Baseball’s premier hitter in the 1880’s. Much better hitter than any eligible outfielder, but only around 6th best CF in 30 year period.

BUCKY WALTERS, P.25 POW, 89 WARP1, 161 RSAA, 166 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 115 ERA+ in 3,104 innings. Hitting helps him, but doesn’t quite stack up to other pitchers.

ROLLIE FINGERS, RP. 23 POW, 188 Win Shares, 80 WARP1, 103 RSAA, & 119 ERA+ in 1,701 innings. Even with post season and leverage, can’t match up to starters with that ERA+.

HUGH DUFFY, CF/LF. 5 POW, 95 WARP1, 154 RCAP & .623 OWP in 7,838 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Just not in the elite OF class offensively, and fielding runs doesn’t even like his defense (-31).

GAVVY CRAVATH, RF. 18 POW, 202 Win Shares, 59 WARP1, 238 RCAP & .709 OWP in 4,644 PA’s. Def: FAIR. McGraw provided better offense in more MLB PA’s at a tougher position.

CHARLIE JONES, LF. 19 POW, 71 WARP1, 245 RCAP & .697 OWP in 3,958 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Not a lot of PAs due to short schedules and suspension, but lots of offensive production.

TONY PEREZ, 1B/3B. 10 POW, 349 Win Shares, 113 WARP1, 146 RCAP & .582 OWP in 10,861 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. I don’t see the love – had a few years at 3B that were not quite Rosen-esque, then became Beckley-lite. Perhaps most over-rated player ever.

DAVE STIEB, P.25 POW, 88 WARP1, 236 RSAA, 166 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 122 ERA+ in 2,895 innings. Too many guys like Tommy Bridges ahead of him.

ALEJANDRO OMS, CF/RF. Estimated 126 OPS+ over 5,152 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Comp is possibly Eric Davis. That won’t cut it in this crowd.

TOMMY LEACH, CF/3B. .552 OWP, 121 RCAP, 9,051 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT – 3B, VERY GOOD – CF. Just slightly below Collins defensively, and he played longer. Basically did everything well, but doesn’t have the one outstanding area to get noticed.

GEORGE VAN HALTREN, CF. 12 POW, 118 WARP1, 167 RCAP & .620 OWP in 8,992 PAs. Def: FAIR. He wasn’t that far above position offensively, and wasn’t that good defensively.

GENE TENACE, C/1B. 26 POW, 231 Win Shares, 73 WARP1, 244 RCAP & .670 OWP in 5,525 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Highly underrated, and very close to Bresnahan in performance.

BEN TAYLOR, 1B. Estimated 138 OPS+ over 9,091 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Comps are Fred McGriff and Mule Suttles. Too bad his best years were pre-live ball, pre-Negro Leagues, but we do have his 1921 stats that show his greatness. He’s Bill Terry plus about 3 more Bill Terry type seasons.

NORM CASH, 1B. 31 POW, 315 Win Shares, 102 WARP1, 295 RCAP & .671 OWP in 7,910 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Obviously underrated player who just needs more in-season PT to make a high ballot slot.

RON CEY, 3B. 21 POW, 280 Win Shares, 95 WARP1, 180 RCAP & .586 OWP in 8,344 PA’s. Def: VERY GOOD. Very good hitter for his position.
   131. Ken Fischer Posted: May 29, 2007 at 08:09 PM (#2382786)
1999 Ballot

Deciding the order of the four worthies is a hard task.

1-Carlton Fisk 368 WS
Pudge was an incredible combination of backstop & hitter. He edges out Brett on my ballot for #1.

2-George Brett 432 WS
So far only Schmidt & Mathews have been better.

3-Nolan Ryan 334 WS

4-Robin Yount 423 WS

5-Dick Redding
He is ranked by many as one of the top pitchers of the pre-Negro League days.

6-George Van Haltren 344 WS
His numbers deserve the high ranking. I know…I’m a Van diehard…GVH and Stephens. I just can’t drop them down. They belong.

7-Mickey Welch 354 WS
300+ wins are great in any era.

8-Carl Mays 256 WS
256 win shares in an offense dominated era is impressive.

9-Craig Nettles 321 WS
Great plays on the big stage. His low career batting average keeps him out of the other hall. He probably stayed around 3 years too long.

10-Willie Randolph 312 WS
Pee Wee Reese is his comp. The Pirates should’ve kept him.

11-Vern Stephens 265 WS
His comps are Doerr & Lazzeri but I believe he was better. A forerunner of the modern power hitting shortstop.

12-Wally Schang 245 WS
He played for several flag winners. Schang had great plate discipline. At the age of 39 he led the AL in HBP.

13-Rollie Fingers 188 WS
Best reliever on the ballot.

14-Bob Johnson 287 WS
A raw deal…Indian Bob will forever be hurt by playing for mostly bad teams and the overlapping eras he played in (Live Ball & War Years).

15-Pete Browning 225 WS
A great Players League year shows Pete belongs.

Not listed

Bresnahan: short career…has almost as many years as a part-timer as he has as a regular

Walters: His high ERAs in the 30s and the war years still keep him off my ballot.
   132. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: May 29, 2007 at 08:35 PM (#2382810)
I don't think Calvin Coolidge said that. :-)

Maybe it was Rita Coolidge?
   133. mulder & scully Posted: May 29, 2007 at 08:40 PM (#2382815)
99 Ballot:

Ballot philosophy: I love a great prime. I define it as the player's best 7 years. Then, I consider a player at his peak - his best consecutive three years because I think health, being in the lineup, is key. Next, I consider a player's rate, per 648 PA. Finally, I look at career totals. They honestly don't mean a great deal to me.
I believe in MLEs for WWII (at a composite of the surrounding 6 seasons), skin color, being trapped in the minors, and some suspensions (Charley Jones and Tony Mullane (who I need to reevaluate)).
Some notes: I just added about 100 players to my 70s/80s/90s spreadsheet to better evaluate those eras. Long career, low peak players do the worst in my system – see Beckley, Rixey, Sutton, Wallace, and Ryan.

Brett, Yount, Fisk get PHOM this year.

1. George Brett: 5th best third basemen

2. Robin Yount: hybrid, 4th best shortstop and 13th best CF

3. Carlton Fisk: 10 best catcher ever.

4. Charley Jones: Like Chris Cobb mentions - the only backlogger who could be considered the best in his league. Fantastic prime. A top 10 player in his league from 1876 through 1885.

5. Mickey Welch: I think we missed the boat. His record against other HoMer pitcher was amazing - about a 60% winning percentage. Had poor defensive support compared to other HoMer pitchers pre-1893 (except Galvin). Had worse run support compared to other early HoM pitchers (again Galvin excepted).

6. Bucky Walters: Great durability. Pitched against better teams than expected. Best pitcher in 1939, 1940, 1944 in NL, 2nd by a nose in 1941. Top 4 at worst in majors in those years. This is after I dock him 8 win shares for his 43-45 performance.

7. Pete Browning: Great hitter. Proved what he could do in the 1890 Players League. Top 10 player in 6 of 9 years. Problems with defense and health and he still was a great player.

8. Hugh Duffy: Great defensive player. Has an A rating for win shares despite only playing in CF for 1/3 of his career. Why did Boston move him to LF? Because the Braves home park, South End Grounds, built in mid-94, had a deeper Left Center, 430 feet, than Center, 416. In 1894 and 1895, Boston had Tommy McCarthy who was a great fielder in LF. McCarthy couldn't hit anymore so they got Billy Hamilton and put Duffy into LF. Boston consistently out"won" their stats, both traditional and "sabr." Someone won those games.

9. Tommy Leach: All-Star at third for three years. OF for 4 years. 8 times a top 10 player in his league and 8 times a top 15 player in majors. Win Shares rated "A" at third and OF.

10. Gavy Cravath: Learned to inside out his swing in the minors because that fit his park. Did more of it at the major league level. No one else did it as well. An All-Star for three years in the minors and from 1913-17 in the majors.

11. Vic Willis: Best pitcher in NL in 1899 and 1901. Second in 1902 and 1906. 4 other times in top 10 in National League. 4000 innings at 118 ERA+.

12. George Burns (phom 1938) - Why? Big prime: 8 straight years among the top 9 position players in the NL, top 20 players in majors. Nice peak from 1917-1919 with two 3rds and a 2nd, to go along with being the best position player in the NL in 1914. Even competing with Cobb, Speaker, Ruth, Cravath, and Jackson, Burns was one of the top 3 OF 3 times.

If WS is not your cup of tea, here are some year by year leaderboard appearances: 5 top 10s in OBP. In those years, he was never worse than 2nd in plate appearances. How's that for a nice combination.
He was top 10 in runs scored 11 straight years, with 5 firsts.
If you like hits, 8 straight years in top 9, 6 of those top 5.
How about power? 7 straight years in top 7 in total bases.
How about walks? 9 years out of 10 in top 10, with 5 firsts.
How about stolen bases? 9 years out of 10 in top 10, only 2 below 4th, with 2 firsts.
Also, 8 straight years in the top 10 in runs created.
   134. mulder & scully Posted: May 29, 2007 at 08:42 PM (#2382817)
13. Don Newcombe (phom) – Lots of innings every year at a top 10 ERA+ rate will do it for me. I give credit for NeL play/MiL play, so Newcombe gets 10 WS for 1947 and 16 for 1948. Also, he gets 3 WS for 1949 – remember he started the year in Montreal.
I give Korean war credit at an average of the surrounding 6 years for 22 WS for 1952 and 23 WS for 1953. Also, I give a slight credit for 1954 readjustment.
In any case, I have Newcombe as the best pitcher in the NL in 1949 (tied with Spahn and Pollet based on 21 WS plus 3) and in 1956. He is in the top 5 in the NL in 1950, 1951, 1955, and 1959. Now, add in 1952 and 1953.
I see an 8 time all-star (6 if you don’t give Korean credit) with 7 years out of 8. If you don’t give the credit, then its 5 years out of the 6 he played.
Also, look at the combination of ERA+ with IP: 1949: 7th ERA+ and 5th IP, 1951: 10th and 6th, 1955: 2nd and 6th, 1956: 3rd and 4th. I think 1952 and 53 would have been similar production.
How about K/W? 8 straight top 10s not including Korea (52-54) with 5 top 3s and only one worse than 6th. Even if you add in 1954, its 8 years out of 9.
How about WHIP? 7 top 10s out of 8, not including Korea, with 6 top 5s and 2 firsts.
Again, a great, extended prime. You will be seeing a familiar pattern.

14. Wilbur Cooper:
Again, another player with a great, in this case 9 year, prime.
By win shares, he is a top 5 in league/majors: 1917, 1918, 1919, 1920, 1921, 1922, 1923, 1924. 4th/NR, 4th/NR, 5th/NR, 3rd/5th, 2nd/6th, 1st/3rd, 5th/NR, 2nd/5th. Plus a 6th in 1916.
Eight straight years as a top 5 starter in the NL, 4 years a top 6 starter in the majors. He lacks the consistent giant years of Johnson and Alexander or the fluke 2 years of Faber or the sporadic peak of Vance. But if you like consistent, no off years, significantly above average pitching, Cooper gives you that.

If win shares are not your bag, let's look at ERA+. Cooper has 9 straight years with between 112 and 144, with 8 of those years being top 10 innings pitched years also. 6 years out of 7, he was top 3 in IP. In 1917, 18, 20, 21, and 22, he was top 10 in both IP and ERA+. What keeps him from ranking better is the fact that his top 10 years in hits per 9 innings, 5 times, and his top 10 years in walks per 9, 5 times, only have one year in common. Still, he does have 4 years with a top 10 WHIP - and he ranks 3rd, 3rd, 2nd, 2nd in IP each year.

15. Bus Clarkson: The numbers are too good for me to ignore. I use a mixture of the first series of translations and the second version of the second set. I see him as the best qualified shortstop so he makes my ballot. His career is hidden by many changes in leagues.

Everybody else:

16. Ryan: 2 ties for 3rd/4th, a fourth, a fifth/sixth tie, plus 1987. That is not the peak or prime that I want. Ranks 6 or spots higher than Sutton did. Will be PHOMed next year. For all of his 18 out of 20 years in the top 10 of H/9 (including 16 years in the top 3) and 20 straight years in top 10 of K/9 (including 18 years in the top 2), he had only 7 years in the top 10 of ERA+ and only 4 in the top 5. Of those 7 years, in only 4 did he make the top 10 in innings pitched. 3 of those 4 he is an all-star. In only 3 years did Ryan make both the top 10 in IP and WHIP.
Only 7 years over a 120 ERA+ out of 27 seasons.

17. Roger Bresnahan: Stands out over his position by such a great deal. Even though he only played roughly 2/3 of his games at catcher, if you can be an all-star in CF when you are not catching, I won’t hold it against you.

18. Alejandro Ohms (PHOM 1964): Many years of all-star-plus years (over 25 win shares.) After being close to returning the ballot for years, he finally does.

19. Rollie Fingers: I’m still not sure about him. Without him, the A’s don’t win at least one World Series. He was very durable for a very long time. He didn’t have the peak of a Gossage or a Hiller or a Sutter.

20. Frank Chance (PHOM 1985): Best peak and prime by a first baseman between Connor/ Brouthers and Gehrig. Top 10 in league: 1903, 1904, 1905, 1906, 1907. Rank in league/majors: 3rd/3rd t, 2nd/5th t, 8th t/15th t, 3rd/4th, 6th t/15th t. Best first baseman in league and majors in 1903-1907, league 1908.

21: Burleigh Grimes (PHOM 1961): Too many ups and downs in his career to get elected, but I think he and Early Wynn are the same guy.
Top 5 in league/majors: 1918, 1920, 1921, 1924, 1928, 1929. 2nd/5th t, 2nd/3rd t, 1st/4th t, 3rd t/NR, 2nd t/2nd t, 2nd t/NR.

22. Elston Howard: I kept overlooking him. I am giving more of a benefit of the doubt about his opporunity issues: Korea, race. Catcher bonus.
Top 10 in league in 1961, 1963, 1964
Rank in league/majors: 6th t/11th t, 3rd t/12th t, 3rd/8th.
Best catcher in league in 1961, 1963, 1964. In majors in 1961, 1963, 1964.

23. Dave Stieb: Great early 80s run. I am conservative in my early placement of newbies. I am in the midst of reevaluating candidates, positions, and the difficulty of the eighties. Probably won’t jump to my ballot in 99, but may see it in 2000.

24. Jack Fournier: Noticed that I forgotten about him when he is given appropriate credit for 1917, 1918, and 1919. Remember he did have a 142 OPS+ for his career.
Top 10 in league in 1915, 1918 (minor league credit) 1921, 1923, 1924, 1925. Rank in league/majors: 5th t/7th t, (9th/17th), 5th t/14th t, 5th t/10th t, 3rd/4th, 3rd/6th.
Best first baseman in league: 1915, 1921, 1923, 1924, 1925. Best in majors: 1915, 1923, 1924, 1925.
I believe the MLEs for Fournier are too low because they give him OPS+ of 117, 137, and 122 at ages 27, 28, 29. Those would be his 8th/10th/and 11th highest OPS+ for his career. He may not have set career highs but I think they would have been more line with his career.
   135. mulder & scully Posted: May 29, 2007 at 08:46 PM (#2382825)
Others:

Redding was great for four years in the early teens, but almost no shoulder seasons leaves him in the mid-20s, but still PHOM

Bob Johnson was not one of the top 30, maybe 40 players of his era. Look how many other hitters hit so well during his time.

Willie Randolph was better than Nellie Fox, but I agree with DanR about Fox. As I mention above, I am almost finished reevaluating his playing era.

Dale Murphy makes my top 30. Very good peak and prime, but not quite high enough to make the ballot. Again, am looking again at the 70s/80s players.
   136. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: May 29, 2007 at 11:46 PM (#2383111)
Since some people asked us to include what we consider . . . I try to look at it all. I'm a career voter mostly - not because I have any bias towards it, but just because the numbers (and every study I've ever seen) tell me that peaks are overrated and 5+5 is only about 10-15% less valuable than 10+0.

I give full war credit, and I think it's a major mistake not to when comparing players across eras. My biggest regret on this project is that we didn't require all voters to give war credit like we did with Negro League credit. I see no difference, both were a circumstance of the player's birthday that was beyond his control. I also follow similar philosophy on strikes. I think it's a cop out to say we don't know so it's a zero. If a guy was a 25 WS a year player before and after the war, a zero is a much bigger mistake than giving him three 25s. As far as injury you just credit a guy based on his playing time before and after the war. There's no reason to assume he would have been any more (or less) injury prone during those years.

I'll give minor league credit for players trapped - once they've had a 'here I am, let me play!' season.

Of late I've been much more hands on in rating the pitchers than the position players. I'm very confident in my pitcher rankings. My position player rankings I'm less confident in, but there are only so many hours in the day, and because of that you'll see more position players moving around from week to week than pitchers.

1. Robin Yount SS/CF (n/e) - So close to call with Brett. In the end, I went with the guy who contributed more on defense, since that area is a little grayer. Even the typical tie-breakers, like peak and post-season play are too close to call.

2. George Brett 3B (n/e) - Like Yount, one of the top handful of players in his generation.

3. Carlton Fisk C (n/e) - Career value candidate. Was not as good as Munson when they were playing, but played so much longer.

4. Nolan Ryan SP (n/e) - Would be first most years.

5. Rick Reuschel SP (3) - This ranking surprises me a great deal. It's one thing to 'discover' an Ezra Sutton (I mean as a group, not that I discovered him first or anything) who played 130 years ago. But Rick Reuschel was there, right before my very eyes. He pitched in the World Series for my favorite team when I was turning 9 years old. And I never had a clue he was this good.

My Pennants Added system, which account for fielding support, parks, bullpen support, etc.; shows him as the #30 pitcher eligible, right behind Dazzy Vance, Ed Walsh and Amos Rusie, and ahead of Jim Bunning, Sandy Koufax and Juan Marichal.

He isn't peakless either. His 1977 was every bit as valuable as Bunning's 1966. Bunning definitely has him beat in years 2-5, but Reuschel makes it up with more quality in the back end. I get them essentially equal, Reuschel was a little better inning for inning, Bunning had a higher peak, but in the end they even out. I have Reuschel with a 115 DRA+ over 3745 tIP, Bunning was 113 over 3739 tIP. This is where I would have ranked Bunning, who sailed into the Hall of Merit, I have no issue putting Reuschel here.

Even when I take my numbers, but filter them through a Bill James-type NHBA scoring system (that heavily focuses on peak), Reuschel still comes out as the #46 starter eligible, in a group with guys like Jim Palmer, Noodles Hahn, Eddie Rommel, Tex Hughson, Clark Griffith and Whitey Ford. Hahn, Rommel and Hughson all had very nice peaks.

Using a JAWS scoring system, he comes out as the #35 starter, in a group with Wes Ferrell, Jack Quinn, Palmer, Stan Coveleski, Red Faber and Urban Shocker.

I am saying that Reuschel was every bit as good as the Jims, Palmer and Bunning. The only difference between Palmer and Reuschel is park and defense. Reuschel's 1977 was better than any season Palmer had. Palmer, like Bunning was better than Reuschel in the 2-5 best seasons, but by less than a win a year, and over the course of their careers, Reuschel was better, 115 DRA+ to Palmer's 113 (in a similar number of innings, Palmer had 3781 tIP. He had the one great year, and was very good from 1973-81 and 1985, 1987-89. That's a record that not a lot of pitchers can match.

6. Jack Quinn SP (4) - I'm giving him credit for 1916-18 where he was pitching (quite well) in the PCL after the Federal League went belly-up. He gets a big leverage bonus for his nearly 800 IP of relief work at a LI of 1.26. Without any PCL credit I still have him between Bridges and Grimes.

7. Willie Randolph (5) - I have him very slightly ahead of Sandberg. He scores a 98.6 in my system - Sandberg gets a 95.8, Jeff Kent was at 87.0 through 2005, Lou Whitaker scores 113.9, Bobby Grich 120.1. Just to give some benchmarks. Among non 2B with a similar score we have elected everyone. Willie McCovey scores 98.7, Ernie Banks 96.0. Dave Concepcion scores 77.7. I'm comfortable placing Randolph here, especially in light of our election of Nellie Fox, who scored 81.8.

8. Rollie Fingers RP (7) - Very easily the number 3 reliever we've seen through 1990, behind only Wilhelm and Gossage, way ahead of Sutter. He's the best I've found at preventing inherited runners from scoring. He was as leveraged as high as just about anyone. His peak is only beaten by Gossage (and Hiller if you call 1-year a peak). ERA+ severely understates how much he prevented runs from scoring, when I adjust for everything, I get his DRA+ at 124. His career was as long as any reliever except for Wilhelm. He's a laughably easy choice IMO, unless you think we should only have 1 or 2 relievers.

9. Tommy John SP (8) - Tons of career value. I would probably be sick to my stomach if Jim Kaat (who did very well in the Veteran's Committee balloting this year) got in and John did not. On the surface (career W-L) they appear similar, but when you adjust for everything, they aren't close. I have John as similar to, but better than Burleigh Grimes - about 800 more translated IP, at a 106 rate instead of a 104 rate. That's more than enough to offset Grimes peak edge. I get John somewhere between Eppa Rixey/Red Faber and Grimes on the continuum. He's over the in/out line for me. I also give no extra credit for his poineering the surgery - someone had to be first.

10. Urban Shocker SP (9) - Vaulted in 1981, with 1918 war credit (he was having a great year), and an adjustment for the AL being much better than the NL during his time. He was a great pitcher, peak guys should really look closer at him. He'd be a no brainer without his illness, which should not impact a peak vote.

11. Tommy Bridges SP (10) - Unspectacular peak (although he would have won the 1936 AL Cy Young Award if it had been invented), but a lot of career value. War credit helps nudge him above Trout and Leonard. He could obviously still pitch when he left for the war, and was still good when he returned for a short time. I give him 2 years of credit at his 1941-43 level.

12. Gavy Cravath RF (11) - Either he was a freak of nature, or there's a lot missing. I vote for the latter. Check out his thread for deeper discussion of the specifics, including a great analysis from Gadfly. He's the kind of guy we were hoping to catch when we started this project.

13. Pie Traynor 3B (12) - The more I look, the more I think we missed on this one. He gets another bump this week. I don't agree with rating Boyer above him. Traynor far outhit his 3B peers relative to Boyer and his.

14. Thurman Munson C (13) - Better than I realized - just a hair behind Freehan. Better career D, better career O, but Freehan played more and had the higher peak. Very, very close.

15. Ben Taylor 1B (14) - Consider me convinced that he was really was a great hitter. I was underrating him.
   137. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: May 29, 2007 at 11:47 PM (#2383114)
Honorable Mention

16. Dave Concepcion SS (15) - Better than I realized, and was really hurt by the 1981 strike, which occurred during his best season (and a season where the Reds had the best record in baseball, but missed the playoffs). Still no Trammell or Ozzie, but a very good player indeed. We could do worse than induct him.

17. Wally Schang C (16) - Basically the best MLB catcher between Bennett and Cochrane/Hartnett. As valuable a hitter as Campanella or Bennett. Defense was questionable.

18. Bert Campaneris (17) - He slipped off my radar and he shouldn't have. .470 OWP, in an era where the average SS was at .372. Long (9625 PA) career as well, and a good fielder (62 FRAA). System says to rank him ahead of Concepcion pretty clearly, but I haven't been able to bring myself to do it just yet.

19. Dave Stieb SP (18) - The best pitcher in baseball between Seaver's demise and Clemens' rise (1982-85). He got a very nice peak, a decent length career (3070.3 tIP). Very similar to Bridges/Pierce/Walters. Walters had the better 'best-year' but I think Stieb had more 'very good' years and beats him by a hair.

20. Graig Nettles (19) - Vacuum cleaner at 3B, one HR title, another runner-up. He was a better hitter than Brooksy, almost his equal with the glove. Almost as long of a career, and while he wasn't as good as Robinson, Brooks had plenty of room to spare. I had him too high, but still think he belongs.

21. Rusty Staub RF (20) - Finally pushed him higher, I like career candidates with nice peaks, and from 1967-71 Staub was one of the best players in baseball. Looking at Jose Cruz made me realize I had Staub way too low.

22. Dave Bancroft SS (21) - Let's see. You've got a SS with a .498 OWP, during an era where the average SS has a .414 OWP. He's also one of the 15 most valuable defensive shortstops in history to this point. He had a reasonably long career as well, though his in-season durability wasn't great. Think that's a valuable player? I do.

23. Buddy Bell 3B (22) - Just a hair behind Nettles - arguably as good as fielder (though about a season less at 3B) and a hair behind as a hitter also. Who realized at the time that he was one of the best players in the game from 1980-82?

24. Darrell Porter C (23) - A lot higher than I thought he'd be. His 1979 was an MVP caliber season - of course it came in the one year between 1977-81 that the Royals didn't make the playoffs, so he finished 9th behind guys like Mike Flanagan and Gorman Thomas. As a catcher, in 679 PA, he had as good of an offensive season as the LF/DH that won the award. I could see ranking him almost as high as Freehan. I wish I'd looked at this sooner - I'd like to see him get the close look that Ron Cey got. Porter was definitely a better player.

25. Charley Jones LF (24) - A superstar of the early NL/AA. I give full credit for his contract debacle / blacklisting, which I consider a product of his timeframe, and not something that would hinder any modern player. I have dropped him this week. I still think he was great, but I think I'd been giving him a little too much credit for his AA seasons.

26. Jim Fregosi SS (25) - I like middle infielders that can hit.

27. Don Newcombe SP (26) - Gets color-line and Korea credit. Moving up this week after a few tweaks in the system adjusting for fielding behind him.

28. Bucky Walters SP (27) - Big years, good hitter for a pitcher, career kind of short though. Basically tied with Newcombe.

29. Ken Singleton RF (28) - I've got him as very similar to Henrich. Singleton lasted longer (ever after accounting for the war), but Henrich was a much better fielder. Henrich had more power and Singleton more OBP. But when you add it all up, their overall value was quite similar.

30. Burleigh Grimes SP (29) - Faced pretty steep competition (.520 RSI), so his 256-226 RSI and 107 ERA+ understates his record somewhat. I wouldn't be against his election at this point - his hitting puts him over the top. The updated fielding adjustments in WARP drop him a little in the rankings.

31. Phil Rizzuto SS (30) - Lost 3 prime years to WWII. Great defense, and a huge year in 1950 also.

32. Norm Cash 1B (31) - Wow, history books, where have you been hiding this guy? .671 career OWP! +109 fielding runs! That puts his defense at a level with Roger Connor, George Kelly and Frank McCormick among the all-time greats. He has more FRAA than Vic Power, for example.

33. Roger Bresnahan C/OF (32) - Great hitter / catcher = tough combination to overlook.

34. Dave Parker (33) - I wrote a paper in college advocating him for the Hall of Fame, but now I realize that was a mistake. He just wasn't good enough when he was good to offset 1980-84.

35. Tommy Henrich RF (34) - Very underrated, gets a ton of war credit.

Frank Tanana - much better than I realized has a very nice 3-year peak, and a lot of career value. I have him a little behind Grimes, who is a decent comp, but was better. Bobo Newsom is also a good comp.

Dale Murphy - was he any better than Kiki Cuyler?

Mandatory comments:

Dick Redding - he was good, but I think we are overrating him. I can't see how he's better than Grimes.

Pete Browning - would be by far our biggest mistake. Hack Wilson would be an equivalent electee.

Bob Johnson - comes up just a bit short, after war deflation.
   138. Patrick W Posted: May 29, 2007 at 11:57 PM (#2383142)
Hopefully this posts before Countdown starts.

1. Nolan Ryan (n/a), Cal. (A) – Hou. (N) SP (’68-’93) (1999) – Just better than Bly, I like Brett/Yount better, but this is what the numbers say.
--. Bert Blyleven, Minn. – Clev. (A), SP (’70-’92) (1998)
2. George Brett (n/a), K.C. (A) 3B (’73-’93) (1999) – I had Brett and Yount neck and neck when they went in also.
3. Robin Yount (n/a), Milw. (A) SS / CF (’74-’93) (1999)
<B >--. Gary Carter</B>, Mont. – N.Y. (N), C (’74-’92) (1998)
4. Carlton Fisk (n/a), Bost. – Chic. (A) C (’71-’93) (1999) – Less than Carter, but not by much
5. Frank Tanana (n/a), Cal. – Detr. (A) SP (’73-’93) (1999) – Big Start, Hung on
6. Rollie Fingers (3), Oak. (A) – S.D. (N) RP (’70-’84) (1991) – 33% bonus on his pitching runs to account for leverage. This could be low, but I don’t think I can support using a higher multiplier.
--. Dwight Evans, Bost. (A), RF (’72-’91) (1997)
7. Tony Perez (4), Cinc. (N), 1B / 3B (’65-’86) (1994) – Completely different BA/OB/SG breakdown, but the sum of his offensive and defensive value to a team makes him look like a twin of Willie Keeler to me.
8. Luis Tiant (5), Bost. – Clev. (A) SP (’64-’80) (1988) – Right there with Drysdale, Ford and Marichal. Not a slam dunk, but the ballot’s not strong enough to hold him down.
9. Tommy John (6), Chic.– N.Y. (A) SP (’63-’89) (1997) – If you can maintain average for a quarter century, that’s just a different definition of greatness.
10. Jim Kaat (7), Minn. (A) SP (’61-’83) (1991) – Kaat would probably be in the Hall today if his ’62-’66-’74-’75 had instead occurred consecutively. His best seasons don’t seem to coincide with Minnesota’s best as a team in the ‘60s either. Value is value in my system, and this is where he deserves to rank.
11. Rusty Staub (8), Hou. – N.Y. (N), RF (’63-’81) (1996) – In my system, I have to take 9400 AB’s of 0.295 EQA over 6400 AB’s at 0.301. Wynn has the bigger peak, but Staub has 5 more seasons to his career.
12. Rick Reuschel (9), Chic. – S.F. (N) SP (’72-’90) (1996) – On the other hand, if Reuschel is going in first ballot, then it probably is a weak ballot. Nearly equals the value of Kaat in 700 fewer innings.
13. Graig Nettles (10), N.Y. (A) 3B (’69-’88) (1997) – How can the Hall not find enough 3B to honor?
14. Dutch Leonard (11), Wash. (A) SP (’34-’53) (1972) – Amazing how valuable he was before and after the war, the lost time to injury in ’42 and the apparent effects of recovery in ’43-’44 keep him from the 15-18 votes that all his equals seem to be getting. Penalize one guy for playing too good during the war, penalize another for not playing good enough...
15. Dizzy Trout (12), Detr. (A) SP (’39-’52) (1967) – Bob Lemon was better than Dizzy Trout, but Lemon on the cusp while Trout isn’t even the best Dizzy according to the voters is too steep a drop IMO. It would take a war discount of close to 50% to drop him from my ballot, which is about 35-40% below what the quality drop-off actually was. Don’t penalize the players for being in their prime in ’42-’45.
16. Norm Cash (13), Detr. (A), 1B (’60-’74) (1985) – Ben Taylor appears to be the comp, but Cash ranks so close to Dizzy in the total value column that I have raised Taylor 5 spots instead of starting Norm at 14.
17. Willie Randolph (14), N.Y. (A) 2B (’76-’92) (1998)
18. Buddy Bell (15), Clev. – Tex. (A) 3B (’72-’89) – Close enough to Nettles that he has to have a place on the ballot. Graig has more value offensively, and thus gets the nod.

Dick Redding – The bar for NeL pitchers has been set higher than this, IMO. The jump from Ray Brown to Bill Foster, Mendez and Redding will keep them all out of my Hall.
Pete Browning – Much closer to the ballot than anyone else listed below, but even he’s only approx. low 20s-high 30s.
Bucky Walters – It’s been awhile, but this ballot has given Bucky votes. P-Hall in ’61 even. He’s just as good as Leonard/Trout (on-ballot) and Koosman/Lolich (off). I may have to find a spot for him.
Roger Bresnahan – No. 11 on my list of Catchers.
Bob Johnson – Just off ballot right now.

Five players were in last year’s top ten, but not in my top 15 this year.
   139. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: May 30, 2007 at 12:01 AM (#2383157)
The election is now over. Results will be posted in 2 hours.
   140. karlmagnus Posted: May 30, 2007 at 12:07 AM (#2383187)
Bummer! Yet another delay! Not that it matters....
   141. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: May 30, 2007 at 12:30 AM (#2383271)
Bummer! Yet another delay! Not that it matters....


Not a delay, karlmagnus. That's how we have been handling it for the past few elections.
   142. karlmagnus Posted: May 30, 2007 at 12:32 AM (#2383282)
I know we have, but actually it ought to be at tallyist's dicretion -- there are no disputed ballots or late changes this time round.

I guess I'm just a fundamentally impatient person :-(
   143. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: May 30, 2007 at 12:37 AM (#2383305)
I guess I'm just a fundamentally impatient person :-(


I hear you. But as you stated before, nobody will be surprised with the outcome anyway.
   144. Rick A. Posted: May 30, 2007 at 01:04 AM (#2383433)
Happy Jack Chesbro

I hear you. But as you stated before, nobody will be surprised with the outcome anyway.

Yes!! I knew I'd get in eventually!!
   145. Rick A. Posted: May 30, 2007 at 01:06 AM (#2383440)
Let me try that again.

Happy Jack Chesbro

I hear you. But as you stated before, nobody will be surprised with the outcome anyway.

Yes!! I knew I'd get in eventually!!
   146. Rick A. Posted: May 30, 2007 at 01:07 AM (#2383446)
Happy Jack Chesbro

I hear you. But as you stated before, nobody will be surprised with the outcome anyway.

Yes!! I knew I'd get in eventually!!
   147. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: May 30, 2007 at 01:13 AM (#2383474)
I tried to fix this.
   148. Rick A. Posted: May 30, 2007 at 01:22 AM (#2383503)
Joe,

Thanks
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