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Hall of Merit
— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best

Monday, June 11, 2007

2000 Ballot

Prominent new candidates: Rich Gossage, Charlie Hough, Jack Morris, Kent Hrbek, Willie Wilson, Frank Viola, Bob Welch, Kevin McReynolds, Jeff Reardon and Rick Sutcliffe.

Top-ten returnees: Nolan Ryan, Willie Randolph, Rollie Fingers, Cannonball Dick Redding, Bucky Walters, Pete Browning and Dave Stieb.

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: June 11, 2007 at 01:07 PM | 158 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: June 11, 2007 at 01:15 PM (#2400200)
I use Win Shares as the base for my ranking system, though I am now using a modified version (any negative values are converted into zeroes) of BRAR, FRAR and PRAR for the NA.

I am integrating the conclusions made by DERA with Win Shares for all pitchers.

I do place (to a certain degree) domination at one's position during the player's era. That doesn't mean that domination-by-default will necessarily help you though (Gil Hodges may have been the best first baseman of his era, but he wont make my ballot).

1) Rich Gossage-RP (n/e): The second greatest retired reliever as of 2000. Great peak and career numbers. Pretty easy selection for me. Best relief pitcher for 1975. Best AL relief pitcher for 1978 and 1981.

2) Nolan Ryan-P (4): I could have placed him above Gossage just as easily. My analysis views him as legitimately great even with the longevity advantage his generation had on the mound. Awesome career numbers and his peak wasn't too shabby either. He was extremely close to making my top-three this ballot. Overrated? Yeah, but he still belongs and if he were to go in this "year," I wouldn't be upset at all .

Now that all of the Seventies generation in the HOF have been discussed by us, the only HoM pitcher that I disagree with is Sutton. IOW, I don't think I was too tough on them at all.

3) Bus Clarkson-SS/3B (5): Looks like the best shortstop of the Forties, which is surprising to me. IMO, Eric would have to be totally off with his projections for Clarkson not to be near the top of everybody's ballot. Shave off 50 WS from his MLE and he still comfortably belongs.

4) Roger Bresnahan-C/CF (6): Greatest catcher of the Deadball Era not named Santop. The poor man's Buck Ewing (Johnny Kling was the poor man's Charlie Bennett) is still good enough to be here on my ballot. Slightly better than Noisy behind the plate, but the Duke played longer and at other positions. Best major league catcher for 1905, 1906, and 1908. Best major league centerfielder for 1903.

5) Charley Jones-LF/CF (7): He was playing a more difficult position than the one that it evolved into. I gave him a little more credit for his (unfairly) blacklisted years. Best major league leftfielder for 1877, 1879 and 1884. Best AA centerfielder for 1883. Best AA leftfielder for 1885 (close to being the best in the majors).

6) Bucky Walters-P (8): The guy had a nice peak, fairly long career, and could hit. Best ML pitcher of 1939 (extremely close in 1940). Best NL pitcher of 1940 and 1944.

7) Mickey Welch-P (9): Yeah, pitching was different back then, but he still distinguished himself regardless. Best major league pitcher for 1885.

8) Pete Browning-CF/LF (10): Gotta love the peak! Best major league second baseman for 1882. Best major league leftfielder for 1883 (close in 1890). Best AA centerfielder for 1885. Best major league centerfielder for 1887.

9) Vic Willis-P (11): Willis pitched a ton of innings at an above-average rate for a long enough time for his era. Best major league pitcher for 1899. Best NL pitcher for 1901.

10) Gavvy Cravath-RF (12): I'm finally buying the arguments for him. I'm giving him MLE credit for 1908-11. Possibly would have been the best ML right fielder for 1910. Best NL right fielder for 1913 and 1914. Best ML right fielder for 1915, 1916, and 1917.
   2. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: June 11, 2007 at 01:16 PM (#2400201)
11) Alejandro Oms-CF (13): Thanks to Chris' work, another gem has been uncovered. He should gather more and more support over the next few "years."

12) Bob Elliott-3B/RF (14): He could hit, field, and didn't have a short career. Best ML third baseman for 1943, 1944, 1947, 1948, and close in 1950. Best NL third baseman for 1949 and 1950.

13) Hugh Duffy-CF/LF/RF (15): "Only" the third best centerfielder of the '90s, but that position was very strong for that decade. Best major league right fielder for 1890 and 1891. Best major league centerfielder for 1892, 1893 and 1894.

14) Pie Traynor-3B (n/e): Back on my ballot after a 1-year absence. Best white third baseman of his time (though J. Wilson and Beckwith was better). Best major league third baseman for 1923 (Beckwith was better), 1925, 1927, 1929 (Beckwith was better) and 1932.

15) Burleigh Grimes-P (n/e): Lie Pie, he has his spot on my ballot again. Pitched for a long time behind crappy teams and defenses. Not a bad peak, too Best NL pitcher for 1921 and 1929.

Redding, Randolph, Fingers and Stieb all exist in my top-35, but they just fall short.
   3. karlmagnus Posted: June 11, 2007 at 02:18 PM (#2400226)
Hough just off the bottom, significantly below Tanana. Wakefield’s better – wait till he’s eligible! Morris an infinitesimal fraction less good than Hough, and less interesting because not a knuckleballer (Morris/Hough poster boys for W/L not being 100% meaningful.) Gossage better than Fingers, but not as dominant as one would expect – his 126ERA+ doesn’t compare with Mariano’s 194. I find it impossible to rank him above, for example Saberhagen, whom we will shortly consider. Hrbek too short a career and not dominant enough; Wilson nowhere near good enough – adjusting for SB makes his OPS+ only 99, still nowhere near enough. Cravath comes into consideration set at the Hack Wilson level, which is about where he belongs.

1. Nolan Ryan (N/A-3) 5386IP most distinguished stat. 112ERA+ and 324-292 slightly less so. Well above the HOM borderline, in my view and somewhat underrated by sabermetricians, as here in electing Yount above him.

2. (N/A-7-7-6-8-6-6-7-7-6-7-7-7-9-8-7-7-4-5-3-3-3-5-4-4-4-6-4-4-4-5-2-2
-4-4-3-3-5-4-3-2-2-3-5) Addie Joss. I’m now even more convinced I missed him earlier, and that adjusting innings down for dead ball pitchers is illegitimate. 2327 IP at an ERA+ of 142. 160-97 by age 30. If you assume the rest of his career would have been 1800 IP, 120-90 with an ERA+ of 110 (somewhat conservative, assuming you boost his last sick season, though pitchers didn’t last as long as they did later) then 50% credit would put him at 3227IP, 220-142, with ERA+ of 130. 25% credit puts him at 2777 IP, 190-120, with ERA+ of 136. Substantially better than Koufax. OPS+20.

3. (N/A-10-8-7-6-4-3-3-5-9-7-8-6-4-4-4-6-4-5-6-5-4-6-7-6-5-5-6-7-5-5-4-
4-5-4-6-4-4-5-4-4-5-4-4-6-5-5-5-6-7-5-5-6-7-6-5-5-7-5-5-5-6-3-4-7-6-4-4-6-5-4-3-3-4-6) Eddie Cicotte. Only 208-149 and an ERA+ of 123, but 3223 IP, more than Waddell and should get about 25% of the bonus for the 300-win career he should have had (he was, after all, a knuckleballer, who tend to peak late.) Much better than the 20s glut – only loses to Welch on longevity – Newhouser a close comp, but Cicotte had a longer career. Successfully cursed Red Sox AND White Sox for over 8 decades!

4. (N/A-10-9-8-10-11-10-13-12-14-N/A-15-14-13-12-11-10-10-11-9-9
-10-11-10-10-10-11-11-10-9-10-7-8-11-10-8-8-10-9-5-4-4-5-7) Ernie Lombardi. Up a bit more; we’re forgetting him. Berra closely comparable Berra. 2137 hits, normalized to a 130 game season, and an OPS+ of 125 makes him a little better than Schang, but some of it was during the war years and he fielded badly. TB+BB/PA .492, TB+BB/Outs .719., the ratio between the two very low because of strikeouts, I assume. Plus a great nickname!

5. (N/A-14-15-14-13-14-15-14-15-14-15-15-13-12-13-10-11-13-12-10-
11-12-11-6-5-5-6-8) Vern Stephens. Short career – only 1859 hits, but comparing him to Reese he was much better, and not far short of Doerr. TB+BB/PA .508, TB+BB/Outs .756. OPS+ 119 Best season 1944, however. Sliding up ballot.

6. (N/A-9-8-8-9-10-8-10-9-8-7-8-11-11-10-10-10-11-11-10-9-11-12-
11-14-13-11-13-13-13-13-12-11-14-13-12-11-11-12-10-10-11-12-11
-11-11-13-13-11-10-11-8-9-12-11-9-10-11-12-8-7-7-9-10) Wally Schang. When you normalize his career to 130 game seasons for the first 18 years, as I do for catchers, he gets to 1941 hits, more than Groh at an OPS+ of 117, very similar. Furthermore, TB+BB/PA=.455, TB+BB/Outs=.728, also significantly better than Groh, over very close to the same period. And he was a catcher, more difficult than 3B.

7. (N/A-10-9-8-11-N/A-15-15-14-10-10-11-12-10-12-11-9-8-9-10-10-9-
8-9-10-9-8-7-9-9-8-10-9-8-10-9-8-9-8-8-10-9-8-8-8-9-7-7-8-9-8-7-7-9-9-8-7-8-5-6-9-8-6-6-8-7-9-8-8-10-11) Charley Jones. Short career – only 1,780 normalized hits, even when adjusted to nominal 130-game-played season. But OPS+ 149, TB+BB/PA .473, TB+BB/Outs .722, so above Pike and non-CF 90s OF. Down, but just above Browning

8. (N/A-15-N/A-5-4-4-6-10-8-9-7-5-5-5-7-5-6-7-6-6-7-8-7-6-6-7-8-6-6-5-
5-6-5-7-5-5-6-6-5-6-5-5-7-6-6-6-7-8-6-6-7-8-7-6-6-8-6-6-6-7-4-5-8-7-5-5-7-6-10-9-9-11-12) Pete Browning. Recalculating, to adjust ’82 as well as ’83-’92, he had 2,177 “normalized” hits, with no AA discount. However, TB+BB/PA .511, TB+BB/Outs .855. the same as Tiernan, not quite as good as Thompson, but he got no significant boost from the 1893-94 run explosion. Career OPS+162 vs. 146 Thompson and 138 Tiernan, but you have to discount a bit for AA. Also discount for not playing full seasons; the normalized hits should thus be about 1900, so drop him to just above Hondo.

9. (N/A-12-10-12-10-11-10-7-7-8-9-7-9-13-11-10-11-12-12-11-11-11-
12-12-11-11-12-13-12-15-14-12-14-11-10-11-11-10-12-11-10-9-9-
10-8-8-9-10-9-8-8-10-10-9-8-9-6-7-10-9-7-7-9-8-7-6-6-8-9) Sam Leever. Pity he wasn’t able to start at the normal time; 2 more years would have made him a NB. Only 2660 innings, but was blocked till 27 by the one-league 1890s and having a steady job as a schoolteacher. Believe he needs to be looked at seriously by others, and included in pitcher analysis. Mild plus for high level of moral probity.

10. (N/A-15-N/A-15-N/A-14-13-14-11-12-14-13-11-13-14-13-11-10-10-12-13) Frank Howard Very slightly better than Kiner – significantly longer career. Underrated by history. OPS+ 142 for 1774 hits. TB+BB/PA .546, TB+BB/Outs .805 in a pitchers’ park and era.
   4. karlmagnus Posted: June 11, 2007 at 02:18 PM (#2400228)
11. (N/A-12-11-11-13-14) Tommy John 288-231, 4710IP@111. Infinitesimally below Sutton, better than Kaat.

12. (N/A-13-12-13-13-12-14-15-12-13-11-11-N/A-11-9-12-12-N/A-15-15-N/A-14-N/A-15-13-12-14-15) George van Haltren. Had slipped too far at #44; we need more 90s stars.

13. (N/A-11-12-11-11-12-13-14-12-15-15-15-15-N/A-15-N/A) Carl Mays Had slipped down too far. 3021 innings at 119, 207-126 and 83 OPS+ Others should look at him more closely.

14. (N/A-6-5-9-8-9-8-7-10-11-8-9-7-7-6-6-9-9-8-6-6-6-5-4-8-7-9-12-
N/A-14-13-15-N/A) Hugh Duffy. Back on ballot after more than 60 years; we don’t have enough Beaneaters!

15. (15-14-11-12-10-9-6-8-7-7-6-7-6-3-3-3-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-5-4-2-3-2-3-3-
2-3-3-2-2-3-7-5-5-3-2-2-2-4-2-3-3-2-2-4-3-2-2-3-3-4-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-2-2-
3-2-2-3-2-2-4-2-3-2-2-4-2-2-2-4-3-3-3-4-2-2-2-2-N/A) Mickey Welch. UER were 43.37% of total runs allowed for Mickey, compared to about 40% with all his HOM contemporaries except Galvin (who started earlier, anyway.) Hence his ERA+, his weakness anyway, overstates his value; in spite of 307-210 he was primarily an innings-eater. 4802IP. Back on ballot after decades

OFF BALLOT

16. (N/A-15-N/A-14-13-15) Rusty Staub. 2716 hits at OPS+124. TB+BB/PA .484, TB+BB/Outs .724. Not quite as good as Beckley, for not quite as long.

17. (N/A-12) Fred Lynn. Underrated, considerably better than Rice or Hernandez. 1960 hits at 130, but bonus for playing CF. TB+BB/PA .531, TB+BB/Outs .791. Lovely player to watch, and absolutely top-drawer at his best.

18. Reggie Smith
19. (N/A-14-N/A-15-13-15-N/A-15-N/A) Luis Tiant 229-172. 3486 IP at 114. ERA+ a little low, but W/L good. He’s not top tier, but just a little better than Pierce. Big psychic plus for Red Sox affiliation. Looking at Reuschel, a little overplaced so have slipped him down.

20. (N/A-13-15-N/A-15-15-N/A) Vic Willis Had slipped too far.

21. Goose Gossage. 1809IP@126; do a rough translation would make it 3618@116, which is just off-ballot. People talk as if his career ERA+ was 160, like Pedro’s. It wasn’t.

22. Gavvy Cravath 1134 hits@150. Add 50% to career and deduct 5 points for more years in early career makes him 1699 hits @145, still a very short career, but comparable to Hack. TB+BB/PA .527, TB+BB/Outs .835.

23. Dave Stieb 176-137 very unimpressive but 122 ERA+ for 2895 innings more so. Moved up a little as I don’t think he’s far below Gossage.

24. (N/A-7-13-11-13-14-14-14-N/A-15-15-15-N/A-14-15-15-15-N/A-
14-N/A-15-15-N/A-15-N/A-14-N/A-15-14-N/A) Hack Wilson. TB+BB/PA = .588, TB+BB/Outs = .954, OPS+ 144. (he does appear to have known about BB, unlike some others.) Very short career, but quality too good to ignore.

25. Rick Reuschel. 214-191, 3548IP@114. Tough to put him far from Tiant, who had a better W/L, but I now realized I was overvaluing Tiant a bit because of Red Sox affiliation.

26. (N/A-15-N/A) Alejandro Oms. New MLE OPS+ of 125 moves him down a bit. Shorter career than Beckley, and not quite as valuable, but he was a darn good player nonetheless.

27. (N/A-14-14-N/A) Chuck Klein. Shortish career but very good one. Similar player to Beckwith, beats Hack on career length, but Hack was better. TB+BB/PA .575, TB+BB/Outs .909, but only 2076 hits. OPS+137.

28. Indian Bob Johnson. Very similar career to Klein but infinitesimally less good. TB+BB/PA .569, TB+BB/Outs .890., only 2051 hits. OPS+138

29. Brian Downing. 2099 hits at 122 plus he caught about 1/3 of his games. TB+BB/PA.487 TB+BB/Outs.741

30. Roger Bresnahan. Moves up on re-examination, but not close enough to see the ballot because even with a catcher bonus his career is short 1252 hits @126, maybe 1500 with catcher bonus, since he played OF in a lot of his catcher seasons. About 2/3 catcher takes him to 140-142 but 1500 @140-142 is close but no cigar, given Klein and Johnson. TB+BB/PA .447, TB+BB/Outs .719. Lombardi and Schang very clearly better.

31. Tony Perez. Up a little, closer to Staub. 2732 hits at 122. TB+BB/PA .502, TB+BB/Outs .731.
32. Bill Madlock.
33. Toby Harrah
34. Ben Taylor.
35. Jim Kaat
36. Orlando Cepeda
37. Norm Cash
38. Jim Rice
39. (N/A-12-12-14-N/A) Tony Lazzeri
40. Cesar Cedeno
41. (N/A-14-N/A-15-N/A) Sam Rice
42. Lou Brock
43. Mickey Vernon
44. Thurmon Munson
45. Sal Maglie.
46. (N/A) Burleigh Grimes.
47. (N/A) Heinie Manush
48. (N/A-9-10-10-13-N/A) Mike Tiernan
49. Bob Elliott
50. (N/A) Dick Lundy
51. (N/A-9-12-11-14-13-14-12-11-12-13-11-11-9-9-13-14-12-14-14-N/A) Levi Meyerle.
52. Jack Clark. As good as Reggie Smith but not for as long. 1826 hits@137OPS+, TB+BB .529, TB+BB/Outs .845
53. (12-15-N/A-11-10-12-10-10-9-8-11-12-10-10-8-8-14-15-13-15-15-N/A) Harry Wright.
54. Dave Parker.
55. (N/A-10-9-8-7-6-7-8-5-12-10-10-N/A-10-8-11-11-N/A) Jimmy Ryan
56. Gene Tenace
57. Kiki Cuyler
58. Deacon McGuire
59. Jerry Koosman.
60. Boog Powell
61. Ken Singleton.
62. Bucky Walters 198-160, 3104IP at 115 certainly doesn’t make the ballot, but should be on the consideration set, so here he is. Less than Tiant or Reuschel..
63. Sal Bando.
64. Jim Fregosi.
65. Jack Quinn
66. Tony Mullane
67. Rollie Fingers. Add 1/3 of his saves and he becomes 228-118 or thereabouts, but on my adjustment (add 50% and subtract 5 ERA+ points) he goes to 2550/114, which isn’t enough.
68. Ron Cey
69. Pie Traynor
70. Jim McCormick
71. Dick Redding. My punt is 3200 innings at 114 ERA+ for a record of 207-159, i.e. same quality as Chris but a little shorter. About here looks right – a little below Grimes (longer career) and Maglie (better quality.)
72. Joe Judge
73. Spotswood Poles.
74. Buddy Bell.
75. Larry Doyle
76. Willie Randolph Somewhat better than contemporary Nettles, adjusting for positional difference, so about here. 2210 hits at 104 TB+BB/PA.429 TB+BB/Outs.646
77. Curt Simmons
78. Waite Hoyt.
79. Harry Hooper.
80. Vada Pinson
81. Gil Hodges
82. Jules Thomas.
83. Rico Carty.
84. Wilbur Cooper
85. Bruce Petway.
86. Jack Clements
87. Frank Tanana
88. Graig Nettles.
89. Bill Monroe
90. Herb Pennock
91. Chief Bender
92. Ed Konetchy
93. Al Oliver
94. Jesse Tannehill
95. Bobby Veach
96. Chet Lemon.
97. Lave Cross
98. Tommy Leach.
99. Tom York
   5. OCF Posted: June 11, 2007 at 02:50 PM (#2400249)
2000 Ballot.

1. Nolan Ryan (----, 4) Don Sutton with no-hitters. In my system, strictly a career candidate - I don't see that much to like in his peak or prime. But then, I am usually a sucker for a good career case.
2. Rich Gossage (new). RA+ Pythpat isn't really the vehicle for evaluating relievers, but using it anyway, Gossage's 10 best years (by equivalent FWP) are 12-2, 12-3, 10-5, 8-2, 8-3, 7-3, 5-1, 6-3, 7-4, and 5-2. (The year as a starter was 12-13.) Doing the same for Fingers: 8-1, 10-5, 9-5, 9-5, 9-5, 9-6, 7-4, 8-5, 8-6, 7-5. Gossage's best 5 years add up to 50-17; his best 10 years to 79-29. Fingers's best 5 years add up to 44-23; his best 10 years to 80-46. For the last 9 years or so of Gossage's career, he wasn't great. I'll take those as positive since I'm at heart a career guy with pitchers - but they aren't very important to the case. The strongest case for Gossage seems to be a peak case based on what he was from 1975 to 1982, especially 1975, 1977, and 1978. Fingers is more a career case, with his single best year coming relatively late in his career and in relatively few innings.
3. Larry Doyle (1, 1, 3, 5) Big hitter in low scoring times - nearly as good a hitter as the backlog outfielders. Mediocre defense, but occupied the position for a long time. Some other voters' comments have portrayed him as not mediocre, but historically bad, a "statue." If so, why did the defense-obsessed writers vote him a Chalmers award? I tend to doubt that John McGraw would have put up with that bad a defensive liability.
4. Dave Stieb (---, 6, 7) RA+ Pythpat 190-131 with a 4-year peak that was an equivalent 81-41. Edges ahead of Bridges and Walters because the 80's were a harder decade to dominate. Ranks well ahead of Morris and Viola (see below).
5. George Van Haltren (6, 4, 2, 4, 7) He did accomplish quite a bit in his career. Has now been on my ballot for nearly years. Sam Thompson has what could have been his spot in the HoM.
6. Tommy Bridges (7, 5, 3, 7, 8) RA+ PythPat 190-124. Walters had a higher peak, but Bridges was a terrific pitcher.
7. Bucky Walters (8, 6, 4, 8, 9) Offense-adjusted RA+ PythPat 197-148. More peak than Bridges, but the one thing RA+ doesn't account for directly is defensive support and he seems to have had plenty of that - so I knocked him down a couple of notches.
8. Orlando Cepeda (9, 7, 5, 9, 10) The Baby Bull. Cha-Cha. There are plenty of places to find fault: indifference to defense, selfishness about his role with the Giants, injury history, early decline. But the early decline sticks out because the start was so good. And his NL was a strong league.
9. Norm Cash (10, 8, 6, 10, 11) One year does not make a peak (or a prime). But oh, what a year. Actually, he's on my ballot as a career candidate, although missing games in each year whittles away at his career value.
10. Willie Randolph (---, 12, 12) This is much higher than I would have placed Fox - but then Randolph was better than Fox. Basically, I like the OBP.
11. Lou Brock (12, 10, 9, 13, 13) Low-peak, career-value candidate, severely underrated by OPS+, but of little defensive value.
12. Sal Bando (13, 11, 10, 14, 14) A hair ahead of Bob Elliott.
13. Bob Elliott (14, 12, 11, 15, 15) Now that Paul called attention to it, the Dixie Walker reference was getting a little dated. Roughly the value of Al Oliver or Brian Downing as a hitter, plus 1300+ games of pretty good 3B.
14. Rollie Fingers (25, 23, 22, 26, 27) Evaluating Gossage made him look better to me.
15. Tony Perez (15, 13, 12, 16, 16) A little less a hitter (mostly that's a about prime-shoulder seasons) than Staub, did play a fair amount of 3B.
16. Rusty Staub (16, 14, 13, 17, 17) Reggie Smith plus some hang-around time. Not Frank Howard's peak, but some peak anyway.
17. Luis Tiant (17, 15, 14, 18, 18) RA+ equivalent 224-164. A 60's pitcher who re-invented himself as a 70's pitcher. A major participant in the 1968 "year of the pitcher" festivities. But it's the 70's career that has more value.
18. Reggie Smith (18, 16, 15, 19, 19) A very, very good player who always seemed to wind up on winning teams.
19. Ken Singleton (23, 21, 20, 24, 20) A much better candidate than contemporary opinion would have made him. Earl Weaver's kind of hitter. But we can't let our enthusiasm for another unrecognized ballplayer overcome the fact that he's just another "bat," another corner outfielder of limited defensive value. Compared to Reggie Smith, he's got the better peak but less career - and I am more of a career voter.
20. Tommy John (20, 18, 17, 21, 21) RA+ Pythpat record of 281-244 with no big years. Compare to Tiant: the difference of 57-80 is pretty much a wash, and Tiant had some big years.
21. Darrell Porter (21, 19, 18, 22, 22) Better than Munson. Nearly as good a hitter, in context, as Lombardi.
22. Jack Clark (---, 5, 23) I overdid his case in his first year. See posts #101 and 104 on the 1999 discussion thread.
23. Graig Nettles (22, 20, 19, 23, 24) Interesting candidate, but not enough of a hitter for me to put him with Bando and Elliott.
24. Ron Cey (24, 22, 21, 25, 25) The best of that Dodger infield, although Lopes was also awfully good. Doesn't match Elliot and Bando as a hitter, so I'll slot him in behind them.
25. Frank Howard (11, 9, 8, 11, 26) Finally came to grips with his lack of defense and comparison to the likes of Singleton and Clark - and he drops in my ratings.
26. Gene Tenace (26, 24, 23, 27, 28) Only half a catcher, but a better hitter than our other half-catchers (Bresnahan, Schang)
27. Dick Redding (27, 25, 24, 28, 29)
28. Luis Aparicio (28, 26, 25, 29, 30) More games at SS than anyone else, 500 SB with a good percentage.
29. Bobby Bonds (29, 27, 26, 30, -)
30. Hugh Duffy (30, 28, 27, --) OK, but I'd rather have Van Haltren.

All of the top-tenners belong to our long-term backlog. Yes, I know the arguments; no, I'm not accidentally overlooking anyone. One particular case: I supported Stovey over Browning long ago because he seemed much better at scoring runs; Browning was nothing special there.

Jack Morris: RA+ equivalent 226-199, without much in the way of big years. Compare Larry Jackson at 200-162.

Frank Viola: Shouldn't I be voting for my musical instrument? RA+ equivalent 177-138, with a terrific peak. Compare Catfish Hunter at 206-178 and a similar peak.

Charlie Hough: RA+ equivalent 219-203. Compare Jim Perry at 196-169.
   6. DL from MN Posted: June 11, 2007 at 03:04 PM (#2400261)
2000 Ballot

1) Nolan Ryan - Career advantage towers over other eligibles
2) Goose Gossage - Slightly higher peak gets him the tiebreaker into the #2 slot despite the innings disadvantage all relievers have.
3) Luis Tiant - More peak than the long career guys like John/Tanana/Kaat but just as much career value. More career value than the prime guys like Stieb/Walters/Redding but just about as much peak.
4) Bus Clarkson - Best available position player. 2 time NgL all-star in 1940 and 1949 with the war messing things up in between. Two league MVP caliber seasons in the Texas League in the 1950s, he never got a fair shot at the majors. His bat is comparable to Willard Brown and he played SS and 3B, not an absentminded CF.
5) Bob Johnson - Yes we have a lot of OF from his era. I think we picked the wrong ones. Consistently 25-40% above average for 12-14 seasons. Good defender also.
6) Tommy Bridges - Pitched a lot of above average innings despite never eating a lot of innings in each season. Deserves war credit.
7) Willie Randolph - I like well-rounded players who can consistently put up good seasons. Randolph fits that description.
8) Norm Cash - 1B glove is the difference between Cash and Cepeda
9) Graig Nettles - Not as good of bat as I remembered but a very good glove.
10) Tony Perez - Being average forever has value but the 3B years put him on the ballot.
11) Buddy Bell - Brooks Robinson type player who contributed much to his team with the glove.
12) Ron Cey - There's a few 3B on my ballot due to the "fair to all positions" clause. We've been a little stingy with marginal 3B compared to marginal OF.
13) Rick Reuschel - Good bat and good glove along with a relatively long career help distinguish him from other pitchers with a couple scattered top seasons.
14) Reggie Smith - Another good all-around player with some durability issues. I tend to like those more than other people.
15) Rusty Staub - Hung around for so long as a journeyman pinch hitter that people might overlook his run from 67-71 in Montreal.

16) Virgil Trucks - Will he resurface next year? Only if he's on my ballot and we'll have to elect 3 ahead of him.
17-20) Gavy Cravath, Bob Elliott, Ben Taylor, Jack Clark
21-25) Tommy John, Orlando Cepeda, Frank Tanana, Dutch Leonard, Dave Bancroft
26-30) Tommy Leach, Bobby Bonds, Thurman Munson, Dick Redding, Johnny Evers
31-35) Jack Quinn, Vic Willis, Ken Singleton, Urban Shocker, Luke Easter
36-40) Rollie Fingers, Dizzy Trout, Lave Cross, Fred Dunlap, Darrell Porter
41-45) Hilton Smith, Frank Howard, Alejandro Oms, Charley Jones, Pete Browning
48) Roger Bresnahan
53) Dave Stieb
72) Bucky Walters

100) Frank Viola
121) Charlie Hough
134) Jack Morris
   7. Daryn Posted: June 11, 2007 at 03:28 PM (#2400281)
I value career over peak, but can be entranced by a great prime. I look at traditional statistics, ERA+, OPS+, Win Shares and Ink. Equally importantly, I read everything on this board and incorporate all that work into my analysis, whether it is RSI, MLEs, PenAdds, simple comparisons of candidates or anything else.

The top 2 on this ballot are well qualified for the HoM. Morris is just off my ballot at 22. Randolph is at 20. Walters and Stieb (my all-time favourite player) are in a group between 40 and 70.

1. Nolan Ryan – for this careerist, he is a top 25 pitcher.

2. Rich Gossage – the 1st or second (or maybe 3rd) best reliever through 2000.

3. Lou Brock – I think the post season value and the tremendous speed puts him ahead of the similar long-career peakless (and now HoM-approved) Beckley. OCF sums up his case in post 126 of the Brock thread. Number of unelected Hall of Fame or Hall of Merit eligible players with more hits than Brock: Zero. Number of people with more MLB hits than Brock: 21.

4. Mickey Welch – 300 wins, lots of grey ink. RSI data shows those wins are real. Compares fairly well to Keefe. I like his dominating record against HoMers. With Beckley elected, he is my last real Teddy Bear.

5. Burleigh Grimes – as a career voter, I have difficulty seeing the vast difference others see between Rixey and Faber (both now elected) and Grimes.

6. Tony Perez – 34th all-time in total bases, no black ink – the weight of his career totals push him above what otherwise looks like a definitional bubble candidate’s resume.

7. Dick Redding – probably the 6th best blackball pitcher of all-time (behind, at least, Williams and Paige and likely behind the Fosters and Brown), and that is good enough for me.

8. Addie Joss – I don’t like short careers much, but I cannot ignore the best WHIP of all-time, the second best all-time ERA, the 12th best ERA+ and the nice winning percentage. He is barely better than (this is an unordered list) Morris, Hough, Stieb, Kaat, Hunter, Harder, Warneke, Smith, Bridges, Gomez, Hoyt, Dean, Luque, Pennock, Trucks, Matthews, Quinn, McCormick, Cicotte, Willis, Walters, Bender, Mays, Cooper, Shocker, Mullane (highest WS of any non-candidate by far), Byrd and Mullin.

9. Pete Browning – Joe Jackson’s most similar player, and they are pretty close – I have him as about 4/5ths of Jackson, who was 2nd on my ballot when elected. Pete Browning benefits from a decision I made in 1986. I’m a career voter, but I have decided that I’d rather honour a great peak than the 210th best career candidate.

10. Rollie Fingers – he is a real borderline closer for me (4th best reliever through 2000).

11. Tommy John – not too far from Grimes, a step above Kaat. No credit for the surgery, but medical pioneers (even the guinea pigs) get my respect.

12. Jim Rice – I like the 77-79 peak. I like the runs created in his ten+ year prime and I like his overall totals. I do adjust raw totals significantly, but I think people are holding Fenway too much against him. From 1975 to 1986, Rice led the American League in total games played, at-bats, runs scored, hits, homers, RBIs, slugging percentage, total bases, extra-base hits, go-ahead RBIs, multi-hit games, and outfield assists.

13. Dave Parker – I think he is very similar to Rice, but I like Rice’s peak better. Their career counting stats impress me.

14. Sam Rice -- 2987 hits speaks to me, but not even the best starch on the ballot. I don't really like these last two candidates at all. Maybe I'll push Tiant or Dean or both on to the ballot next year.

15. Roger Bresnahan – Great OBP, arguably the best catcher in baseball for a six year period. Counting stats, like all catchers of this time and earlier, are really poor. I like him better than Schang because he compared better to his contemporaries, if you count him as a catcher.
   8. Paul Wendt Posted: June 11, 2007 at 04:13 PM (#2400301)
karl
Gossage better than Fingers, but not as dominant as one would expect – his 126ERA+ doesn’t compare with Mariano’s 194.

Karl, no one's career record compares with Mariano's. Beside the prelude (Mariano five years in minors) and decline (Mariano may be underway), a one-year experiment making Gossage a starting pitcher failed yet generated 1/8 of his career innings, would be 1/4 of Mariano's career innings.

Does the "rough translation" count that season as 450 innings @82 ?

OCF
The strongest case for Gossage seems to be a peak case based on what he was from 1975 to 1982, especially 1975, 1977, and 1978.

1975 to 1983? (end of Yankees tenure)
or to 1985? (cherry picking OPS+ but it makes an even ten years as a relief ace)
   9. sunnyday2 Posted: June 11, 2007 at 04:17 PM (#2400305)
AFAIAC Gossage was better for 10 years than any eligible reliever except Wilhelm was for whatever their peak was--usually more like 5 or 6 years. Paul is right, the 126 is irrelevant.
   10. ronw Posted: June 11, 2007 at 04:41 PM (#2400318)
2000 Ballot –I use a little of WS, WARP, RCAA, OPS+, and traditional stats, as well as reputation. I’m putting bWS/700PA and pWS/300IP, plus my broad All-Star candidates, and MVP/Cy Young candidates for fun.

1. Nolan Ryan – 18.5 pWS/300IP, 2 CY, 10 AS. The Express can leave the station now.

2. Rich Gossage – 36.9 pWS/300IP, 2 CY, 6 AS. The first reliever I’ve voted for since Wilhelm.

3. Dick Redding. If only we could have his teen’s peak clearly defined. I’m going to be disappointed if he never makes it to the HOM.

4. Pete Browning. 26.1 bWS/700 PA, 5 MVP, 8 AS. There were two better hitters through the 1880’s, Brouthers and Connor. There were many better fielders.

5. Dave Stieb 21.9 pWS/300IP, 4 CY, 8 AS. Very solid, especially for his era.

6. Roger Bresnahan. 22.7 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 10 AS. Yes, the MVP was as a CF, but still a very valuable player for his time.

7. Hugh Duffy. 20.9 bWS/700PA, 5 MVP, 10 AS. Dominant during the early 1890’s, but that might be Win Shares talking.

8. George Van Haltren. 20.0 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 13 AS. Has gotten an elect-me vote on my ballot before.

9. Tommy Leach. 18.0 bWS/700 PA, 2 MVP, 11 AS. A good player from an underrepresented period.

10. Sal Bando. 19.4 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 10 AS. High late-60’s early 70’s peak.

11. Lou Brock. - 18.7 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 11 AS. 30+ WS seasons in 1967, 1968, and 1971, plus a solid long career looks pretty good to me.

12. Ben Taylor I think Ben was a smidgen better than Jake Beckley.

13. Bill Monroe. The ultimate overlooked candidate.

14. Willie Randolph 15.8 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 10 AS. Durability keeps him from being higher. I see him as better than electee Nellie Fox.

15. Luis Tiant. 21.5 pWS/300IP, 3 MVP, 9 AS. I think he may be better than electee Billy Pierce.

16. Vic Willis. 22.0 pWS/300IP, 3 CY, 8 AS. I think we are underrating his early career peak.

17. Larry Doyle. 22.5 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 11 AS. I’ve voted him high before.

18. Dan Quisenberry. 45.0 pWS/300IP, 4 CY, 5 AS. Very dominant during his peak.

19. Bobby Bonds. 22.4 bWS/700PA, 4 MVP, 10 AS. Singleton and Parker are close,

20. Jack Clark – 24.6 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 10 AS. Singleton and Parker are close.

OTHER NEAR-MISSES/NEWBIES/LAST YEAR TOP 10 with comments

C. Wally Schang. 19.8 bWS/700 PA, 0 MVP, 11 AS.

C. Gene Tenace. 24.1 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 8 AS.

1B. Orlando Cepeda. 22.8 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 9 AS.

1B. Tony Perez. 19.3 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 8 AS.

2B. George Scales. I think we could have missed him.

3B. Pie Traynor. 16.2 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 11 AS.

SS. Herman Long. 13.3 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 9 AS.

SS. Vern Stephens. 18.5 bWS/700PA, 2 MVP, 9 AS.

SS. Dick Lundy. Reexamining his offense seems to classify him as a near miss.

LF. George J. Burns. 20.5 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 11 AS.

LF. Bob Johnson. 21.8 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 12 AS. Just doesn’t have enough peak.

LF. Pedro Guerrero – 25.2 bWS/700PA, 5 MVP, 7 AS.

CF. Roy Thomas. 23.0 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 10 AS.

RF. Ken Singleton. 22.2 bWS/700PA, 5 MVP, 8 AS.

RF. Dave Parker – 19.4 bWS/700PA, 4 MVP, 9 AS.

RF. Dale Murphy – 18.8 bWS/700PA, 6 MVP, 7 AS.

SP. Frank Viola – 19.7 pWS/300IP, 4 CY, 7 AS. Had more of a prime than he is credited for here, but not a very high peak.

SP. Urban Shocker. 24.6 pWS/300IP, 3 CY, 7 AS.

SP. Rick Reuschel – 20.3 pWS/300IP, 1 CY, 9 AS.

SP. Wilbur Cooper. 22.2 pWS/300IP, 1 CY, 9 AS.

SP. Eddie Rommel. 24.2 pWS/300IP, 1 CY, 9 AS.

SP. Bucky Walters. 22.6 pWS/300IP, 4 CY, 5 AS. What a peak, but some of it is war years.

SP. Dizzy Dean. 27.6 pWS/300IP, 3 CY, 6 AS.

SP. Mel Harder. 20.5 pWS/300IP, 3 CY, 5 AS.

SP. Jack Morris – 17.5 pWS/300IP, 2 CY, 7 AS – Mickey Lolich, Larry Jackson value, HOVG.

SP. Charlie Hough. 18.3 pWS/300IP, 0 CY, 7 AS. Nope.

RP. John Hiller. 34.7 pWS/300IP, 1 CY, 5 AS.

RP. Sparky Lyle. 34.7 pWS/300IP, 0 CY, 4 AS.

RP. Rollie Fingers – 33.0 pWS/300IP, 1 CY, 4 AS. Not sure that he is better than Hiller and Lyle. Pretty sure he wasn’t better than Gossage, Quisenberry, and Sutter.

RP. Bruce Sutter. 48.2 pWS/300IP, 2 CY, 4 AS.
   11. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: June 11, 2007 at 04:59 PM (#2400332)
Gossage better than Fingers, but not as dominant as one would expect – his 126ERA+ doesn’t compare with Mariano’s 194.

Karl, no one's career record compares with Mariano's. Beside the prelude (Mariano five years in minors) and decline (Mariano may be underway), a one-year experiment making Gossage a starting pitcher failed yet generated 1/8 of his career innings, would be 1/4 of Mariano's career innings.


Besides, you can't compare an ERA+ for a fireman with a closer without taking into account their different responsibilities. Gossage would have had a much higher ERA+ had he started his career in the Nineties, while Rivera's ERA+ wouldn't be close to 194 if he had begun his career in 1972.
   12. Juan V Posted: June 11, 2007 at 07:25 PM (#2400488)
Millenial ballot

Review of my methodology: I use two systems, in one I use OPS+, with adjustments for stolen bases and shape of OPS, compared to a positional baseline. For pitchers, this is RA+, with adjustments for high IP seasons and relief pitching. In the other, I simply use the uberstats, mostly WARP but I'm integrating Win Shares into the analysis. For both systems, I use a JAWS-like formula to weigh peak and career.

1-GOOSE GOSSAGE: Monster peak/prime from 1977 to 1983, to which you can add '75 and '85, plus good career filler seasons after that. With RA+, you can even make the case for him over Wilhelm (although I'm not sure if that's a case I'm willing to make). Missed his nemesis Brett for a year.

2-NOLAN RYAN: The road is clear for him now. What's with the unearned runs?

3-GAVVY CRAVATH: His peak is almost as high as a full war-credited Keller's, and with MLE credit he has a much longer career.

4-BUS CLARKSON: New MLEs incorporated. Glad to see the debate on him re-sparked, as we may be missing a gem here. In any case, he has well over 300 MLEed Win Shares, and an OPS+ around 120 from a SS/3B. The better part of his career, including his SS peak, took place before the Negro League scene got outta whack (although he was still well traveled). He was one of the reasons I decided to establish my new offense system, and under it he truly shines. I am discounting his 1940 a bit.

5-LUIS TIANT: The 114 ERA+ over a little less than 3500 innings is unimpressive, specially considering his contemporaries, but he really shined with unearned runs (roughly 8.5% of total runs allowed, compared to about 11.5% for his era).

6-WILLIE RANDOLPH: If only he had been eligible a year earlier... Much, much better than Fox. OPS+ actually over 100, and he was a positive basestealer as well. Not much in the way of peak, but a really strong prime.

7-CHARLEY JONES: Similar to Cravath, but he had a shorter career. A better defender, though.

8-ROGER BRESNAHAN: His case has a good bit of context, as it depends on how you account for the brutal conditions for catchers of his time. I like the OBP-heavy production. Should be the favorite candidate of "gap-fillers", along with Clarkson.

9-ALEJANDRO OMS: While the hitting value isn't as much as I once thought, there's too many Win Shares here to ignore. They give him a long career, with a considerable peak as well.

10-TONY LAZZERI: My old teddy bear (although, given my relatively short time voting, does it qualify him as "old"?). Where's the support for a 120 OPS+ second baseman? Was the defense really that bad (and why it doesn't show up on the uberstats, which put him clearly north of Larry Doyle territory)? Is my estimation of the baseline for 1930s second basemen that far off?

11-DAVID CONCEPCIÓN: Averagish-bat, All-Time defense, and a really low baseline to compare him against. Clearly, my favorite among all the middle infielders with a similar profile. I believe there is a "real" reason why shortstops of his time were so bad with the bat, giving him real value.

12-VIC WILLIS: Almost 4000 innings at a 118 ERA+ put him pretty close to the average Hall of Fame starter (probably the average Hall of Meriter is a bit better). Unearned runs are about average for his era, so they don't change his standing too much.

13-BEN TAYLOR: Comparable to Will Clark, but with a longer career and, because of the defensive demands of the position at his time, a lower baseline for comparision.

14-TONY PEREZ: The peak as a third baseman makes him electable to my eyes. It isn't that impressive, but it is good enough to be "carried" by his career.

15-ROLLIE FINGERS: Finally finds himself again on my ballot. A David to Gossage's Goliath, he still had a nice career in a position filled with flashes in the pan.
   13. DanG Posted: June 11, 2007 at 07:36 PM (#2400507)
My “system”? Emphasizes prime and career; give me steady production over a fluke year or two or three. Seeing no need to reinvent the wheel, I look at win shares and WARP and rely on the interpretations of these by other analysts. IMO, our group overvalues peak; I like guys who play. There’s also a tendency here to cut and run from well-seasoned candidates. Finally, unlike Bill James and most voters I don’t give any “consecutive-seasons” bonus; value is value.

My ballot, Teddy Bears and all. My #1, #2 and #3 were elected. The big name in 2000 is Goose. In 2001, Winfield and Whitaker stroll in the doors of the HoM while Puckett, Parrish and Mattingly take on the backlog. Ozzie and Tram are the shorts-toppers in 2002; if Dawson is elected, it won’t be in a “walk”. In 2003, Murray and Sandberg are shoo-ins; Lee Smith and Brett Butler will get looked at.

1) Nolan Ryan (4,ne,ne) – Generally rated among the top 125 players all-time. Holds career records for walks (by nearly 1000 over #2!) and wild pitches. Third all-time in Losses. You’d think at least once in 27 seasons he’s be more than six games over .500, but he never was.

2) Goose Gossage – Could be the greatest RP in history.

3) Tony Perez (5,3,1) – Even-steven with Staub in win shares, but drubs Rusty in WARP3; in 12-year weighted prime Perez beats him 8.41 to 7.43. Career lovers delight with enough peak to make him great. <u>Firstbasmen with most Total Bases over a 15-year period, 1949-98</u>:

1977-91 4181 E. Murray
1967-81 3915 T.Perez
1959-73 3810 H. Killebrew
1972-86 3800 S. Garvey
1958-72 3684 O. Cepeda
1966-80 3430 L. May
1973-87 3400 C. Cooper
1963-77 3379 D. Allen
1973-87 3375 B. Buckner
1963-77 3360 W. McCovey

4) George Van Haltren (6,4,3) – We’ve now elected 16 players who were behind him in 1970. Huh? Were we so wrong about him for 50+ elections? No, we’re wrong now. Now in his 92nd year eligible. Pennants Added study shows him well. He excelled in the contraction years 1892-1900; he had high SB totals (usually 35-40 in his prime years), which I believe was more important pre-1920; he was a mainly a centerfielder (~71.7% of his non-pitching games vs. ~47.6% for Ryan and 61.5% for Wynn), Ryan (and Duffy) actually played more corner outfield. Players with most stolen bases 1891-1900:
1—660 B. Hamilton
2—443 G. Van Haltren

One non-HoMer here, Players with <u>3400 times on base 1871-1909</u>:
1—4433 C. Anson
2—3954 J. Burkett
3—3729 J. Beckley
4—3661 B. Dahlen
5—3605 G. Davis
6—3579 W. Keeler
7—3507 R. Connor
8—3438 G. Van Haltren
9—3434 B. Hamilton
10—3431 E. Delahanty

5) Tommy Leach (7,5,5) – After his highest finish since 1945 in 1997, he held his position in the backlog; his candidacy’s “not dead yet”. I think it’s what Bill James once said, that all-around players get overlooked, while specialists get overrated; voters like that one area of dominance. Modern comp to, but just a bit behind, Craig Biggio, he could beat you in many ways. Longevity, defense and speed, more important in that era, rate him above Groh. Versatility is a plus; it should not be assumed that any typical thirdbaseman of the era could have successfully handled CF. Had a better peak than Bobby Wallace, but his career was a couple years shorter and he had just a little less defensive value. Among OFers with 750 games 1905-14, he is 2nd in PO/G (behind Speaker) and 2nd in FA (behind Clarke). <u>Leaders in Total Bases, 1901-10</u>:
1—2606 H. Wagner
2—2527 S. Crawford
3—2410 N. Lajoie
4—2128 H. Davis
5—2052 C. Seymour
6—1973 T. Leach
7—1933 F. Clarke
8—1911 J. Sheckard
9—1823 G. Beaumont
10—1783 B. Wallace

Not bad for a “glove”.

6) Burleigh Grimes (8,7,7) – Comparable to E. Wynn. Has the heft I like in a career. Pitchers with <u>3800+ IP, 1916-75</u>. The top ten are all HoMers, nearly:

1—5244 W. Spahn
2—4689 R. Roberts
3—4564 E. Wynn
4—4344 R. Ruffing

5—4180 B. Grimes
6—4161 T. Lyons
7—3941 L. Grove
8—3897 E. Rixey
9—3884 B. Gibson
10—3827 B. Feller


7) Rusty Staub (9,8,8) – He’s the Grimes of position players. Ranks #36 all-time in Times On Base; #59 in Total Bases, just ahead of some guy named Jake. Edges Brock in win shares, blows him away in WARP3. Players with <u>OBP of .380+, 1967-76, 3500+ PA</u>:
1—.407 J. Morgan
2—.399 C. Yastrzemski
3—.397 W. McCovey
4—.394 P. Rose
5—.392 K. Singleton
6—.389 F. Robinson
7—.386 R. Carew
8—.386 R. Staub
9—.385 H. Killebrew
10—.381 D. Allen

8) Roger Bresnahan (10,9,9) – A couple more voters now (15) have high regard for The Duke of Tralee, but he slipped out of the top ten finishers. Versatility should be a bonus, not a demerit. How many other catchers could have been pulled out from behind the plate to be an all-star in centerfield? Could move higher, but I really like guys who play. Played half his teams’ games in only 11 seasons, averaging 71% of team games in those years. Still, his offensive production towers over other catchers of his era, so he deserves a vote. Defense only C+. Players with <u>OBP over .390, 1903-14, 3100+ PA</u>:
1—.424 T. Cobb
2—.420 E. Collins
3—.413 T. Speaker
4—.401 R. Bresnahan
5—.400 H. Wagner
6—.399 F. Chance
7—.396 R. Thomas

9) Jimmy Ryan (11,10,10) – Browning had one skill; Ryan could do it all. As a SNT he finished ahead of seven HoMers; the order in the teens was Duffy-Ryan-GVH-Beckley. Usually trailing those guys were Caruthers-Pearce-Pike-Jennings-Griffith-Childs. <u>Most extra-base hits, ten-year period 1876-1903</u>:
632 1893-02 E. Delahanty
550 1887-96 S. Thompson
549 1886-95 R. Connor
542 1883-92 D. Brouthers
525 1883-92 H. Stovey
487 1890-99 J. Beckley
481 1893-02 J. Kelley
458 1888-97 J. Ryan
453 1888-97 M. Tiernan
<u>Most outfielder Assists, 1876-1918</u>
1—375 J. Ryan
2—348 G. VanHaltren
3—348 Tom Brown
4—307 J. Sheckard
5—289 O. Shaffer
6—285 K. Kelly
7—283 S. Thompson

10) Graig Nettles (12,11,11) – Another looonggg career 1970’s star. James slots him behind Boyer, ahead of Traynor, which seems about right. For the 1970’s he was #6 in HR and #10 in RBI, not bad for a “glove”. I think he still holds the AL record for HR at 3B; 2nd all-time in games at 3B.

11) Rollie Fingers (13,12,12) – Definitely a bubble candidate. It all depends on what angle you view him from. One of four pitchers with 1500 relief IP, there may never be another. OK, so maybe he’s the Grimes of RP’s.

12) Rabbit Maranville (14,13,13) – Pulling a couple of my old Lost Causes out of the backlog. Every career voter should have him on their radar. WARP1 is 134.5, even better than Beckley’s 116.0 (high of 8.0). That includes four years better than 10.0. Plus he’s due nearly a year of war credit, which adds another 8.0 WARP1. Career WARP3 is 105.5, easily in HoMer country. Career win shares, with war credit and adjusted to 162 games, is 339, including 124 in his top five seasons.

13) Wally Schang (15,14,14) – There’s not a dime’s worth of difference between him and Bresnahan, so he’s still on the radar. Players with <u>OBP of .390+, 1915-29, 5600+ PA</u>:
1—.475 B. Ruth
2—.439 T. Cobb
3—.436 R. Hornsby
4—.435 T. Speaker
5—.427 E. Collins
6—.412 H. Heilmann
7—.399 J. Sewell
8—.398 W. Schang
9—.393 K. Williams

14) Willie Randolph (--,15,ne) – Back on ballot. Better than Fox, who I had just off my ballot. As a “career voter”, I think he has the numbers.

15) Gavy Cravath (--,--,--) – First time on ballot. Yeah, he has problems, but they all do. Had a long career, was a regular player into his late 30’s. And he had a high peak. What more do you need? Circumstances beyond his control kept him out of MLB for many years.

Top tenners off ballot:

Stieb seems to be getting a major “position shortage” boost. His case is based on his peak 1981-85. But there actually were many HoMers pitching regularly then: Carlton, Ryan, Blyleven, Seaver, Sutton, Niekro, Gossage, and maybe Fingers and Eckersley.

Bucky Walters – Was on 1997 ballot. Think I might’ve had him a tad overrated.

If we elect Browning it will be proof of mistakes in the design of our system; if a guy who’s liked by about a third of the electorate, and ranked +50 by another third, can make it in isn’t right. Nice peak in a very weak league. I don’t believe that fielding value is at all well measured pre-1893, so I’m very wary of electing any more bats from that era.

Redding is a good candidate if you put total faith in the translations showing a stratospheric peak.
   14. Juan V Posted: June 11, 2007 at 07:41 PM (#2400514)
Tough luck for...

16-Dale Murphy
17-Bob Johnson
18-Toby Harrah
19-Dagoberto Campaneris
20-Marvin Williams
21-George Scales
22-John McGraw
23-DAVE STIEB: Nice peak, just one more good season and he would probably be on my ballot.
24-Jimmy Ryan
25-Bobby Avila
26-Bob Elliott
27-Vern Stephens
28-Thurman Munson
29-Cesar Cedeño
30-PETE BROWNING: When you think about it, he's equivalent to a poor-fielding, short career corner outfielder with a 140ish OPS+. His peak is still good, but he needs more.
31-Dave Bancroft
32-Lefty Gomez
33-Ken Singleton
34-Carlos Moran
35-Reggie Smith
36-CANNONBALL DICK REDDING: We know relatively little about him, and what we know isn't enough to suggest a HOMer by itself. His actual performance could belong 30 places higher in this ballot, or 30 places lower.
37-Ron Cey
38-Bobby Bonds
39-Darrell Porter
40-Mickey Welch
41-Rusty Staub
42-Dick Lundy
43-Dick Bartell
44-Ned Williamson
45-Ernie Lombardi
46-Jim Fregosi
47-Norm Cash
48-George Van Haltren
49-Frank Howard
50-Larry Doyle
51-Rick Reuschel
52-Chuck Klein
53-Tommy Leach
54-Wally Schang
55-Frank Tanana
56-Davey Lopes
57-Sal Bando
58-Orlando Cepeda
59-Gene Tenace
60-Tommy John
61-Luis Aparicio
62-Graig Nettles
63-Ron Guidry
64-Jim Rice
65-Tommy Bridges
66-Fred Lynn
67-Jack Clark
68-Hugh Duffy
69-BUCKY WALTERS: I kept looking for a reason why he managed to enter the top 10, and so far it escapes me. He had a couple of very good seasons, but for the rest of his career he had serious unearned run problems. His career wasn't very long, his peak ended up being quite short as well, he had significant help from his defenses...
70-Carl Mays
71-Bruce Sutter
72-Elston Howard
73-Buddy Bell
74-Phil Rizzuto
75-Dan Quisenberry
76-FRANK VIOLA: Dizzy Dean v2.0? Not as extreme, though.
77-Artie Wilson
78-Dave Parker
79-Dizzy Dean
80-Pie Traynor
81-Cheo Cruz
82-Wilbur Wood
83-Pedro Guerrero
84-JACK MORRIS: Yeah, he is comparable to Grimes. And I don't like Grimes.
85-Addie Joss
86-Jim Kaat
87-Burleigh Grimes
88-Wilbur Cooper
89-Gil Hodges
90-Johnny Pesky
91-Chet Lemon
92-Lou Brock
93-Chris Speier
   15. Sean Gilman Posted: June 11, 2007 at 07:50 PM (#2400524)
2000

1. Nolan Ryan (4)--Overrated and underrated at the same time?

2. Rich Gossage (-)--Clearly a whole level ahead of HOFers Fingers and Sutter.

3. Pete Browning (5)--If he played in the PCL in the 00s or the Negro Leagues in the 30s, would he be a HOMer by now? Same as with the Negro Leaguers, the league translations inordinately underrate his peak. Besides, it isn’t like the AA wasn’t a major league. A better gladiator than Russell Crowe. (1927)

4. Charley Jones (6)--Jones, Shoeless Joe Jackson and Browning look pretty interchangeable to me. (1929)

5. Tommy Leach (7)--May be the most underrated candidate out there. Great career value, fine peak and played two premium defensive positions. (1942)

6. John McGraw (8)--He’s got the best non-Browning peak of the backlog, but still a shortage of career value. (1997)

7. Larry Doyle (9)--Another underrated infielder. Sisler-esque peak , according to win shares.(1945)

8. Hugh Duffy (10)--High peak, medium length career, the best of a massive group of borderline OF candidates. (1964)

9. George Van Haltren (11)--Almost a HOMer not too long ago, will he make it eventually? (1966)

10. Dave Stieb (12)--Great prime but a little short on the career end leaves him in the bottom half of the ballot. But he’s a clear HOMer to me.

11. Alejandro Oms (13)--Another good, yet underrated, all-around outfielder. (1986)

12. Dale Murphy (14)--A great prime with a decent career value despite the decline phase. Fits in well with these broderline outfielders.

13. Ken Singleton (15)--Ridiculously comparable to Wynn. (1991)

14. Bobby Bonds (16)--Fine all-around outfielder, with a good mix of peak and career, like many other outfielders in this section of the ballot.

(Red Ruffing) (Darrell Evans) (Billy Pierce) (Nellie Fox) (Quincey Trouppe)

15. Luis Tiant (18)--Not quite Steib’s peak, but a bit more career sneaks him on to the ballot.

16. Graig Nettles (19)
17. Willie Randolph (30)
18. Rollie Fingers (21)
19. Dave Parker (22)
20. Sal Bando (23)
21. Wally Berger (24)
22. Carl Mays (25)
23. Mike Tiernan (26)
24. Cesar Cedeno (27)
25. George Foster (28)
26. Dick Redding (29)
27. Dave Concepcion (30)
28. Ed Williamson (31)
(Dobie Moore)
29. Tony Perez (32)
30. Rusty Staub (33)
31. Vada Pinson (34)
32. Dan Quisenberry (35)
33. Ron Cey (36)
34. Norm Cash (37)
35. Rick Reuschel (38)
36. Bruce Sutter (39)
37. Frank Howard (17)
38. Bobby Murcer (40)
39. Orlando Cepeda (41)
(Red Faber)
40. Buddy Bell (42)
41. Bucky Walters (43)
42. Vern Stephens (44)
43. Roger Bresnahan (45)
44. Lou Brock (46)
45. Dave Bancroft (47)
46. Jimmy Ryan (48)
47. Rabbit Maranville (49)
48. Tony Lazzeri (50)
49. Bob Elliot (51)
50. Phil Rizzuto (52)
   16. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: June 11, 2007 at 09:07 PM (#2400586)
2000 Ballot

In the year 2000…I found out that Carlos Moran is damn close to my ballot. He’s about tied with Nettles right now, but he could go higher or lower. I estimated his seasonal nombres based on Chris’s updates to the original set of MLEs, and if Chris’s estimates come back a little higher, then I may have to post a supplemental ballot. In their absence, Moran does not make my ballot but is wicked close.


1. Alejandro Oms: These aren’t my numbers, by the way, which tells you that this vote is not just a Doc C special. An outstanding CFer of the 1920s in the NgLs and CWL. Oms may not have a superior peak (it’ll be a long time before we can assess that with a lot of certainty), but we know now that he had a ton of career value to go with enough peak that he’s a wonderful prime/career candidate.

2. Wilbur Cooper: Dominant NL portsider of the late 1910s-early 1920s. This guy was in the (retroactive) Cy Young chase every single year for a good long while in the late teens and early 1920s, battling Old Pete, Hippo, and Dolf for several years. I like pitchers who show dominance for a good stretch, and he’s one.

3. Ken Singleton: He’s the best player in the AL of the very late 1970s, and a good long while best RF in the AL. And while he might not have much defensive value, he’s doing a great job of walking and hitting with power, lots of SEC. Plenty of All-Star and MVP type seasons.

4. Larry Doyle: Dominant 2B of the NL of the 1910s, good peak/prime, and an argument for having been the best player in the NL for a brief time.

5. Dave Stieb: Admittedly I’ve been an advocate for Stieb. But I think it’s warranted. He outshone the league during a difficult time to dominate, and he’s the best pitcher in the AL over long, meaningful stretches of time. I wish 1986 were better, but that’s life. You don’t get to pick when your off years happen. Even so, he had plenty left in the tank, and among eligible peak/prime pitchers, he’s a great choice for induction. I have him above Walters based on many of the small things discussed in the Stieb thread, however, I could just as easily have gone the other way on it.

6. Nolan Ryan: This should come as little shock to anyone, even though it does. Remember that I had Rixey and Ruffing and Lyons well down on my ballots of that time. I haven’t supported TJ or Kitty Kaat. Ryan’s a little better than all those guys, thus he’s a little higher than they were in rankings. He’s an obvious HOMer, just, for me, not as obvious as he might be for some others.

7. Bucky Walters: You know the story---I like pitcher peaks, and he's got one, even when dampened for the war.

8. Elston Howard: After re-evaluation of his pre-MLB seasons, I think credit is only realistic for 1953-1954 at most. After adjusting for this, he drops back to just ahead of Tralee, not near as high as I had him previously.

9. Leroy Matlock: He’s back. Many years ago now I saw Matlock as the best available pitcher. My consensus scores plummeted…. But in reviewing NgL players, I looked back on his thread, and I don’t really understand why I lost my nerve on him. The MLEs look HOMable, even if you see that 1937 season as a little less than 43 WS. I think we’ve whiffed on him, and that someday when we’ve got more better information, he’ll be one of the “lost” guys that no one talked about who ends up as a HOMer.

10. Tommy Leach: Pick your poison. As a CF, he’s not got enough peak to get on the ballot. But as a 3B, he’s a fabulous career candidate with enough at the top end to be among the top dozen 3Bs. Splitting it down the middle, he’s a 3B/CF hybrid with outstanding seasons at both positions, a nice, long career, and enough peak/prime to emerge as a downballot candidate.

11. Hugh Duffy: Lots of All-Star and MVP type seasons, a good run as his league's best position player, plenty of adjusted career value. He'd be a perfectly fine selection, but he’s certainly a borderliner.

12. Sal Bando: Same old, same old here. You’ve read my thoughts for ten years.

13. Goose Gossage: While I agree with everyone that Gossage is the best relief candidate available and the best between Wilhelm and Rivera (assuming Mariano continues to dominate as he has through the year 2000), I’m not so eager to elect relievers. That’s why I’ve got him way down here. I won’t be bummed if he’s elected at all, not as I might be by the election of Rollie Fingers, whom I have not yet supported. I like Gossage’s peak, his longevity, and all that good stuff, so my seemingly low placement is just a matter of my own insecurities about the position.

14. Rick Reuschel: I don’t always agree with Joe’s pitcher rankings, but I think his points about Reuschel viz Tiant are interesting. Big Daddy presents hope to all mesomorphs…people like me.

15. He’s near the end of my ballot, and given the chronologically unbalanced feel of it, I think he’s as good as anyone else from the more-modern era to go on the board. He’s a highly effective pitcher whom others have talked about at much greater length than I. No promises he or Reuschel will stay here next year, I’m extremely ambivalent about them, just as I’m extremely ambivalent about Dean and Grimes, who my systems suggest I should vote for, but who I can’t pull the trigger on.


WHO DAT?

-Charlie Hough: If he’d started during the first half, he might have had a chance. Not good enough, nor long enough, therefore, to go over the line.
-Jack Morris: I think between our deliberations and Joe Sheehan’s noteworthy project, the lie has been put to Morris’s candidacy in my eyes. He neither pitched all that well, nor to the score, he just pitched a lot and a little better than most.
-Kent Hrbek: Pretty good, but not for all that long.
-Willie Wilson: Not great but for a long time. His name is kind of like Tommy Thompson, not quite exactly a repetition between first and last, but a near miss.
-Frank Viola: The old joke goes like this. How many violists does it take to change a light bulb? None, they can’t get that high! (Hilarity ensues, except in the violist chairs….) This Viola actually did get that high, but he needed a sustain pedal of some sort because he couldn’t keep it up for long enough to turn in a HOM career.
-Bob Welch: A key contributor to the all nationalities team:

C: Johnny Romano
1B: Bobby Del Greco
2B: Neal Finn
SS: Swede Riseberg
3B: Woody English
RF: Scot Thompson
CF: Esteban German
LF: Irish Meusel
DH: Indian Bob Johnson
PH: Frenchy Bordagardy
SP: Dutch Leonard (1 and 2!)
SP: Bob Welch
SP: Larry French
SP: Egyptian Healy
RP: Justin Germano

-Jeff Reardon: Is one of these guys is not like the other? Fingers, Gossage, Reardon, Smith, Hoffman. I think it’s Gossage. It could be Hoffman. It could be both. Or maybe it’s Reardon….
-Rick Sutcliffe: That’s a lot of wins for a guy with an ERA+ below 100.
-Kevin McReynolds: That’s a mcwrap for my comments.


UNKNOWN KNOWNS
-Pete Browning: Just off my ballot, and I was probably wrong about his HOMiness previously.

-Rollie Fingers: I think we'll be overpopulating RP if we choose Fingers and Gossage from their era. Or just one of them?

-Dick Redding: I’m not a believer. Those 1920s numbers aren’t pretty. I’d encourage everyone to look back at them again. It’s not pretty at all, and he needs all of them to make it. I’d rather induct Cannonball Adderley.

Willie Randolph: Very close to the ballot, but not quite there. As someone whose support of Nellie Fox was herky-jerky, I recognize the reasons why people have him higher or lower.
   17. Juan V Posted: June 11, 2007 at 09:12 PM (#2400593)
Are you making us guess who's #15? :)
   18. sunnyday2 Posted: June 11, 2007 at 09:12 PM (#2400594)
And so #15 is Frenchy Bordagardy? Or Jeff Reardon? What am I missing here?
   19. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: June 11, 2007 at 09:16 PM (#2400600)
Maybe it's Johnny Vander Meer or Don Larsen?
   20. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: June 11, 2007 at 09:25 PM (#2400607)
We've been at this long enough that you guys should all be able to read my mind by now.... OK, here's the ballot sans commentary with the 15th name supplied. Sorry about that!

1. Alejandro Oms
2. Wilbur Cooper
3. Ken Singleton
4. Larry Doyle
5. Dave Stieb
6. Nolan Ryan
7. Bucky Walters
8. Elston Howard
9. Leroy Matlock
10. Tommy Leach
11. Hugh Duffy
12. Sal Bando
13. Goose Gossage
14. Rick Reuschel
15. Luis Tiant
   21. karlmagnus Posted: June 11, 2007 at 09:35 PM (#2400610)
Sorry, I remain unimpressed with Gossage. 126 ERA+ is nothing special for a releiver -- J.C. Romero has an ERA+ of 141 this year and has just been DFA'd by the Red Sox. If I add Gossage's starting year only once, I get 3393IP at 118. That's Billy Pierce, near as dammit, who was just off my ballot. I masy have him a few points too low, but that's first year conservatism -- IMHO there's too much "Wow-Goose" going on without a cold hard look at his stats. Not saying he may not be on at 14-15 in '01, but it won't matter.
   22. karlmagnus Posted: June 11, 2007 at 09:36 PM (#2400611)
Oh and NO WAY is he the greatest RP in history; Wilhelm was hugely better. I would put Gossage behind Rivera and probably Hoffman as well.
   23. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: June 11, 2007 at 09:42 PM (#2400615)
Sorry, I remain unimpressed with Gossage. 126 ERA+ is nothing special for a releiver -- J.C. Romero has an ERA+ of 141 this year and has just been DFA'd by the Red Sox.


Again, you're comparing closers to firemen. Not the same animal.
   24. karlmagnus Posted: June 11, 2007 at 10:12 PM (#2400630)
Romero's not a closer he's a mopper-upper. But there has to be a continuum between a Rivera/Hoffman closer and a proper pitcher. 1800 IP at 126 for a fireman is 3600 at 116 for a regular is 900 at what? less than 146, certainly, maybe 141. Rivera's clearly better than Gossage and Hoffman a little better. Sorry if you don't like my conclusions, but I've got quite good at ensuring my methods are internally consistent and don't drift between eras, which IMHO is the main need for successful HOM voting. Eckersley/Gossage also quite close; I wouldn't rush to enshrine Eckersley either (apart from the fact he was utterly useless for the '80-81 Red Sox, when I watched him.)
   25. karlmagnus Posted: June 11, 2007 at 10:15 PM (#2400632)
By my metrics, for example, Schilling is a LOT better than Eckersley or Gossage; clearly the right side of the line. I may be wrong, but I'm consistent, dammit.
   26. TomH Posted: June 11, 2007 at 10:30 PM (#2400642)
agree.. karl is consistent, give him that. I don't have Goose in my top 3, but higher than karl does.

Karlmagnus, if Goose had been shot to death after age 33, with a 140ish ERA+ in 1400 IP (even after a few lousy seasons when he first began), would he with early death credit have looked better to you? :)
   27. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: June 11, 2007 at 10:33 PM (#2400643)
Romero's not a closer he's a mopper-upper.


Obviously, you're right. Sorry about that.
   28. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: June 11, 2007 at 10:37 PM (#2400647)
Rivera's clearly better than Gossage and Hoffman a little better. Sorry if you don't like my conclusions


Rivera and Hoffman might be better than Gossage, but I'm positive that you can't ascertain that just by comparing their ERA+ without taking into account the fact that Gossage had the tougher job physically.
   29. Chris Fluit Posted: June 11, 2007 at 10:48 PM (#2400654)
1. Nolan Ryan, P (3). PHoM- 1999. Overrated? Sure. He’s not as good as Bert Blyleven, who’s almost criminally underrated. Still worthy of induction? Definitely. Ryan is better than both Fergie Jenkins and Don Sutton who are already in the Hall of Merit. 334 Career Win Shares (every pitcher of the 20th century over 300 is already inducted). 141.6 WARP (the next highest eligible pitcher has 110.0).

2. Goose Gossage, RP (n/e). PHoM- 2000. Easily one of the three greatest relievers of all-time, arguably number one. 223 Win Shares as a reliever are more than starters Addie Joss, Dizzy Dean, Lefty Gomez and Dave Stieb. 9 seasons with an ERA+ over 140. 15 seasons with an ERA+ over 110.

3. Cannonball Dick Redding, P (5). PHoM- 1975. Great peak years between 1914 and 1919 including an estimated 2.14 ERA in 321 innings for Chicago in 1917 (according to i9). Lost a half a year in each of ’18 and ’19 due to military service. Even so, his career MLEs of 234-174 put him in the neighborhood if not ahead of contemporaries like Coveleski, Faber and Rixey.

4. Willie Randolph, 2B (7). PHoM- 2000. Only eligible second baseman over 300 WS: Randolph has 312, next highest is 289. Only eligible second baseman over 100 WARP: Randolph has 108.8, next highest is 86.5. Randolph was the complete package as a 2B, combining offense, defense, a little bit of speed (271 SB at a 74% success rate) and a solid career.

5. Alejandro Oms, CF (8). PHoM- 1984. Finally convinced that he’s the best eligible outfielder. Including play in his native Cuba, Oms has a long, outstanding career. He hit for both average and power, plus he was an above-average (and possibly exceptional) defensive center-fielder.

6. Tommy Bridges, P (n/a). One of the beneficiaries of my big re-evaluation. I love that long prime. Top ten in ERA+ 10 times in 12 seasons (Addie Joss is only other eligible 20th century with more than 7 and he has 8). Top ten in IP 5 straight seasons from 1933 to 1937 for a suitable peak. Would be higher with a bit more career value.

7. Bob Johnson, LF (n/a). Another beneficiary of my big re-evaluation. We’ve already got plenty of players from his era, but Bob Johnson’s prime is almost as good as Bridges’. Top ten in OPS+ 10 times in 12 seasons. Top ten in RC 9 times. 13 seasons with OPS+ over 125 (Jack Clark is only other eligible outfielder with more than 10 and he has 11). Similar to Bridges, would be higher with a bit more career value.

8. Lou Brock, LF (6). PHoM- 1985. I had honestly expected that Brock would fall further in my re-evaluation but he ended up doing okay. 1622 career RC are best of any eligible player. Very consistent for 13 years from 1964 to 1976 with OPS+ always between 106 and 128 and RC/27 over 5.00 for all 13 seasons. Among the worst defensive outfielders but that doesn’t hurt him as much as it might as there are few eligible corner outfielder candidates with outstanding gloves.

9. Dave Stieb, P (n/a). The best starting pitcher of his era. Good long prime for 10 of 11 years from 1980 to 1990 (1986 was a down-year exception) in which he pitched over 200 innings 9 times and had an ERA+ over 130 7 times. No other pitcher of his era combines the bulk (going 1, 2, 1, 3 in IP from ’82 to ‘85) and the quality (going 2, 3, 1, 1 in ERA+ for those same four seasons).

10. Dave Concepcion, SS (n/a). My new favorite candidate. No other eligible shortstop can match Concepcion for length and quality of prime. Excellent all-around shortstop for 8 out of 9 years from 1974 to 1982 (1980 was a down-year exception), 8 ½ if counting his 89 game season in 1973.

11. Hugh Duffy, CF (11). PHoM- 1995. An excellent center-fielder who could have won Gold Gloves in ’93 and ’95, he was moved to left not because of poor play but because his team acquired Billy Hamilton. Also, an excellent offensive player for 8 seasons from 1890 to 1897. That’s not quite as valuable as what Concepcion did at SS, but it’s close.

12. Don Newcombe, P (12). PHoM- 1987. Great years in ’50-’51 and ’55-’56 interrupted by military service in the Korean War. Missing a rise to his career due to integration and a tail due to his own personal issues (and no, he doesn’t get credit for the latter). With proper credit, he’s well over 200 wins for his career and though he isn’t in the same class as contemporaries like Whitey Ford and Billy Pierce, he’s close enough to be worthy of induction.

13. Roger Bresnahan, C (13). The best catcher on the ballot. Offensively comparable to Lombardi (OPS+ 126 for Bresnahan to 125 for Lombardi) but more impressive for his dead-ball context. Also, better defensively at C with the versatility to play CF.

14. Orlando Cepeda, 1B (14). PHoM- 1996. The best available 1B. Has the peak than many of the career candidates are missing (including the recently elected Beckley) with OPS+ of 165, 164, 157 and 148. Has the career than many of the peak candidates are missing with 1375 Runs Created. I don’t think that the difference between Cash and Cepeda is all that great but I come down on the side of the Bull.

15. Rollie Fingers, RP (15). PHoM- 1998. 11 seasons with over 100 IP as a reliever (Gossage, Hiller, Marshall and Sutter each have 5 or 6). Top two in games pitched six years in a row from ’72 to ’77. Top four in games saved eleven out of twelve years from ’71 to ’82. ERA under 2.00 three times (’73, ’81 and a short ’84), and under 3.00 eleven times in twelve years from ’71 to ’82 and again in that short ’84. Fingers doesn’t have the peak of his fellow relievers but he was effective for a longer time than all but Gossage.

Top Ten Returnees:
Bucky Walters: greak peak but not quite enough outside of that peak to get onto my ballot though he is now in my top 30.
Pete Browning: I prefer the 1890s centerfielders Duffy (who's on my ballot) and Van Haltren (who's top 30).

New Eligibles:
Jack Morris: I'm one of Morris' biggest supporters but that's only good enough to get him into the top 25, not actually into the top 15.
   30. karlmagnus Posted: June 11, 2007 at 11:29 PM (#2400678)
TomH,yes if he was really 1400 at 140; that's 2800 at 130, which looks pretty good. Still not Addie Joss though. But he'd then be about #7-10. You're right that his lousy start season and long decline subtract value. But I'm not sure that's not realistic; Beckley was good because unlike most players he didn't start putting up 80 OPS+ for several seasons. I don't really reward peak separately except to the extent it improves career, which is why I have good but peakless Joss as high as I do. Can be slightly persuaded in extreme cases, but only slightly.
   31. sunnyday2 Posted: June 11, 2007 at 11:48 PM (#2400694)
Thank goodness I'm a peak voter. The idea that Gossage ranks worse historically because he pitched after 1985 just doesn't register.
   32. Juan V Posted: June 12, 2007 at 12:44 AM (#2400724)
Admittedly I haven't studied him, but how do these two statements co-exist?


Maybe I should rephrase that? What I meant is that he had some pretty good defenses behind him, with the according effects on ERA/RA.
   33. Howie Menckel Posted: June 12, 2007 at 01:15 AM (#2400750)
karl,
nice straight line for consistency and hobgoblins, etc.
:)

Seriously, I disagree with you less often than most here, but I think that you started with Gossage's career ERA+ and got stuck in a rut. Now you can't shake out of it.

Now, I'm not saying you have to put him in your top 15 at all.

But I can't think of a worse pitcher to use that category on (and generall I'm a big ERA+ guy, in perspective of course).
He's a prime candidate - a truly great pitcher from 1975-85.
A dumb SP experiment at age 24 and a forgettable late career shouldn't overshadow it.

In 1977, Gossage pitched 133 IP with a 246 ERA+.
In 1978, it was 134 IP and a 180 ERA+.
In strike-shortened 1981, he gave up FOUR ER in 46 IP, with 22 H and 14 BB.
He was merely Mariano-like in 1982, 1983, and 1985.

I'd suggest starting with that.
Then decide if he's really not all that good because the White Sox made him throw 220 IP one year, or he was so-so on a long downside.
   34. Paul Wendt Posted: June 12, 2007 at 02:03 AM (#2400787)
DanG
3) Tony Perez (5,3,1) – Even-steven with Staub in win shares, but drubs Rusty in WARP3; in 12-year weighted prime Perez beats him 8.41 to 7.43. Career lovers delight with enough peak to make him great. Firstbasemen with most Total Bases over a 15-year period, 1949-98:

<u>1977-91 4181 E. Murray</u>
1967-81 3915 T.Perez
1959-73 3810 H. Killebrew
1972-86 3800 S. Garvey
1958-72 3684 O. Cepeda
1966-80 3430 L. May
1973-87 3400 C. Cooper
1963-77 3379 D. Allen
1973-87 3375 B. Buckner
1963-77 3360 W. McCovey


(emphasis mine) The group has elected numbers 3, 8, and 10, and number one is a shoo-in.
It's intriguing that Dick Allen needs to make use of 1963-77, with 11 and 60 total bases in the bookend seasons.
And it's intriguing that Willie McCovey needs to make use of 1963-77! The Giants enjoyed, or did they suffer with, too many bats in '62, '61, '60.

. . . Players with 3400 times on base 1871-1909:

That is, the career leaders from 1871

Most outfielder Assists, 1876-1918
1—375 J. Ryan
2—348 G. VanHaltren
3—348 Tom Brown


(I'll give Tom Brown second, he doesn't get much else.)
That is, the career leaders from 1876

DanG, are you missing some stats for 1871-75?
   35. Paul Wendt Posted: June 12, 2007 at 02:05 AM (#2400789)
1. Alejandro Oms: These aren’t my numbers, by the way, which tells you that this vote is not just a Doc C special.

Right. He's your button down straight lace representative in "elect me" positions.
Chaleeko is Eastern European for Consensus, eh?
;-)
   36. AJMcCringleberry Posted: June 12, 2007 at 02:18 AM (#2400806)
I'm sure someone can use BB-Ref and find out where Gossage's ERA+ ranks among relievers during his career.
   37. Paul Wendt Posted: June 12, 2007 at 02:35 AM (#2400822)
Does anyone but Pete Palmer & Gary Gillette have historical data and starting and relief pitching?
   38. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: June 12, 2007 at 03:24 AM (#2400863)
The 1969 MacMillan does Paul.
   39. Adam Schafer Posted: June 12, 2007 at 05:07 AM (#2401004)
Willie Randolph was a Very good player, great career value, I loved him as a player, but he's nowhere close to my top 15. He's down around Stieb somewhere on my rankings. Bresnahan is sitting at #21. Cannonball isn't remotely close.


1. Goose Gossage - Leaps and bounds ahead of Fingers.

2. Nolan Ryan - overrated no doubt, but I believe he's still a smidge better than Blyleven whom I am very high on, and that's nothing to be ashamed of.

3. Charley Jones - dominated, was unfairly blacklisted, then dominated again.

4. Rollie Fingers - one of the top relievers of all time

5. Gavy Cravath - he took advantage of a good situation and exploited it in a way that no one else did

6. Jim Rice - He and Cepeda are practically tied on my ballot

7. Orlando Cepeda - very consistent

8. Bucky Walters - just the right amount of peak to offset the lack of career value I typically require

9. Don Newcombe - give him credit for years missed, and he looks great.

10. Bus Clarkson - I'm willing to believe that I missed him and that he was a shade better than Stephens

11. Bruce Sutter - The only other reliever even remotely close to my ballot right now.

12. Vern Stephens - power, perennial MVP threat,

13. Elston Howard - big gap between him and Carter.

14. Chuck Klein - See Cravath

15. Pete Browning - even in weak leagues, those dominating seasons are hard to ignore.
   40. rawagman Posted: June 12, 2007 at 11:52 AM (#2401059)
Use a sort of peak-over career number that measures ink by playing time. Combined with rate stats and a glove measurement, I feel this gives me both context for what the player actually achieved versus what the league around him was able to do. I think it also may be time to go a little more into my baseball philosophy, which may help in clarifying my rankings. I don't believe in the single stat theory of baseball, meaning I don't use WS or WARP in my rankings. Essentially, I follow this as I think a large percentage of what contributes to baseball is not counted. Well, no one has ever counted them as statistics as far as I've ever heard. This includes things like manager's prerogative, and actions that would require a historical pbp analysis currently unavailable. I search for what I consider "total ballplayers", guys who can do it all. I believe in positional representation and abhor the thought process that says that relievers were all failed starters and 2B are all failed SS, etc... A team cannot win without a 2B, nor without someone in LF. When I look at a player's career, I try to ask myself how I would feel about him as his manager - would his presence require special tactics to protect him, or is he completely reliable. I hope it can be seen by my rankings that the reliable players generally rise above the ones with clear holes in their games. There are always exceptions, but this is what I have. The stats I look at to get here tend to be traditional and rate, both offensive and defensive. Contemporary opinion also helps.
The Goose goes right into my PHOM with a 5th place slot. I elected Ryan last year, and he keeps the top spot this year. Fisk and Dale Murphy join last year's wonder class into my PHOM. Heading my personal backlog are Willie Randolph, Dave Stieb and Al Oliver.
Jack Morris and Kent Hrbek both place near the bottom of the consideration set of their respective positions.

1)Nolan Ryan - Strikeouts are probably undervalued by this group. They take a lot of pressure off the defense. I witnessed Nolan take a no-hitter into the 9th in Toronto when I was around 10. Nelson Liriano broke it up with 1 down in the bottom of the 9th with a triple and scored on a Kelly Gruber groundout. The Rangers won the game 4-1. That was one of my two favourite baseball memories. (PHOM)
((1a)Carlton Fisk - What can I say about the original pudge? I loved his late-career baseball cards. I was born after body-english home runs.)) (PHOM)
2)Hugh Duffy - Super peak, wonderful prime. Amazing bat, super glove. (PHOM)
3)Ben Taylor - Can't find the peak, but a better prime (through the roof), career and glove than Beckley. I think he may be the player most underrated by the electorate. (PHOM)
4)Tommy Bridges - He was really very good. A summary of a reevaluation of some of our backlog pitchers in my high backlog (Bridges, Gomez, Redding, Walters) Of those four, the white guys were all regulars for 10-11 seasons. Bucky and Lefty both had immense peaks, but I think that Lefty's non-peak years hold up better than Bucky's. Also, Lefty does not need any war discount. Dick Redding seems more similar to Walters in that his non-peak was not so impressive. His peak was still enough to leave in him solid backlog country. (I even put him in my PHOM back when I joined the project.) Tommy Bridges wins out. He had much greater consistency. He is to pitchers what Bob Johnson was to hitters, but more of a winner. As we see the upcoming dearth of good pitching candidates, I urge everyone to give Tommy Bridges a closer look.(PHOM)
5)Rich Gossage - As I postulated in the Gossage thread, we may scoff at the credentials of closers who had 2-5 dominating years. The fact remians that very few have ever been able to sustain greatness in that role for a prolonged stretch. The Goose was one of those few. Here's hoping the BBWAA realizes that next winter. (PHOM)
6)Lefty Gomez - looking at him in any single way hurts him. Looking at him kaleidoscopically has him as the best available pitcher in my eyes (PHOM)
7)Charley Jones - he got the shaft - but I am not convinced as to what extent. A little reconsideration bump here. I give partial blacklist credit. I tend to be liberal with credit, but I don't think he deserves full credit. That said, even with the partial credit I am giving him (2 full years), I now see that he was rather durable in season, and he seems to have been a solid defender. (PHOM)
8)Vern Stephens - Will we look at Nomar down the road like we look at Vern now? Great bat, good glove. (PHOM)
9)Dale Murphy - A player that my system loves. At his best he dominated. That refers to the years between 1979-1988. That's a 10 year prime with a very high peak. Also demonstrated very good fielding ability. Could easily move up my ballot. (PHOM)
10)Gavvy Cravath - No longer the worst fielder in my top 120 candidates (Frank Howard). Probably still the best hitter, though. (PHOM)
11)Bob Johnson - I don't know why it took me this long. Great all-round LF. Very durable. (PHOM)
12)Willie Randolph - Long career, solid bat, solid glove. My system has him as very comparable to, but slightly below, Fox. Less durable, less glove. Nothing to be ashamed of though. Would make a worthy member of the Hall of Merit if it comes to that this year.
13)Bobby Veach - He did it all well. As complete a LF as is available today. (PHOM)
14)Orlando Cepeda (PHOM)
15)Dave Stieb - I wish I liked him more. Still like him plenty enough, though. On pace to be a future HOM and PHOM member. I still remember where I was when he finally threw his no-hitter.
   41. rawagman Posted: June 12, 2007 at 11:55 AM (#2401061)
16)Al Oliver - I was surprised by the similarities between Oliver and Reggie Smith. Smith had the higher OPS+, but I fear it may be a bit hollow. Oliver trumps Reggie (and Wally Berger) in light of his more convincing peak and a glove that scores better than the other two. Career length is nice as well.
17)Tony Oliva - another big jump. Career not as short as I thought. A world class hitter.
((17a)Dwight Evans - I honestly held no real memory of him as a player from my childhood, but he gains my respect with a long drawn out prime who (at various times) was an exceptional hitter and fielder. Prefer the peak of Oliva, but I can understand a valid comparison between him and Bob Johnson. Better than Darrell.))
18)Jack Clark - Marvelous hitter who had his uses in the field as well.
19)Jim Rice - This is, more or less, where the in-out line can be found.
20)Wally Berger - super-underrated
21)Dizzy Dean - Diet Sandy Koufax. 0 calories (career), no sugar (prime).
22)Bus Clarkson - I failed to give him credit as a SS earlier. More shades of Quincy. The good doctor's new numbers have been added to my spread sheet, but I have not given him any of a readjustment yet as I wait to see how the electorate takes the info. Solid chance he will make my ballot next year though.
((22a)Darrell Evans - Thanks to Chris Cobb for correcting a flaw in my judgment that was worth 8 spots on this ballot. Being a third basemen for 2 more years would have been worth another 8 spots or so.))
23)Dan Quisenberry - I suppose I've decided that I value peak in a reliever over career totals. Mind you, if the guy has both...well, we'll see what happens with Goose in a few years.
24)Bruce Sutter - Very curious to see if anyone else has him as their highest ranked reliever right now. Shorter career than the others, but when he was at his best, he was the best. That works for me.
25)Ernie Lombardi - defense was below average, but not quite horrible
((25a)Jimmy Wynn - In my reassessment, I was struck by the closeness in several of my areas of focus between Jimmy Wynn and Al Oliver. Each man played around 2/3 of his career in CF, and the other 1/3 elsewhere in the OF. Wynn had a higher career OPS+ (128-121) and more seasons above 120 (8-6). I also give Wynn a slight edge with defensive ability. Ultimately, I have Oliver because those differences are quite small and are made up, IMHO by Oliver's extra ink (small consideration), much greater contemporary acclaim (Oliver- 7 ASG appearances, 3 silver sluggers. Wynn - 3 ASG appearances) and mostly by the 3 extra seasons as a regular. Looking at my other highly regarded CF's, Roush is like Oliver but with greater consistency (10 seasons as a regular with an OPS+ greater than 120, plus a great glove. Duffy had the glove (see my comments on his defense in the Duffy/GVH/Jimmy Ryan thread.) and a higher peak than any of them.))
26)Alejandro Oms - This is a serious jump for him in my rankings (nearly 60 places). I was counting him as a RF only. The hybrid time gets him here, just above Reggie Smith. This could change. Right now I have provisionally given him a career as a 50% CF.
27)Reggie Smith - Another challenge. Uncertainties about his defense keep him from challenging my top half. Moves back up a bit as the clouds pass and I see much to compare between R. Smith and J. Wynn.
28)Dick Redding - One of the toughest for me to accurately place (PHOM)
29)Ron Guidry - I love a dominant pitcher. I don't think it's necessarily correct to view pitchers and hitters in the same light and I value a strong peak (I mean really strong) for pitchers more than for hitters (prefer a steady, all round type there). Similar to, but not quite the equal of, Lefty Gomez, one of my inner circle of best friends.
30)Al Rosen - One more season in prime, and he is top 10
31)Mickey Welch
((31a)Jim Bunning - He had merits, but not enough for balloting. Benefits from my re-examination of ink.))
((31b)Billy Pierce - don't see him as being better than Bridges. My system looks at pitchers differently than position players as I do not account for hitting. That's probably flawed and may need to be reconsidered. But I do not want to dock modern AL pitchers for simply pitching in a league where they do not hit as a rule. And pitcher fielding has become more and more irrelevant over the years.))

32)Sparky Lyle - The biggest surprise of my remodeled reliever system. I don't look at postseason heroics so much, but for those who give plaudits for Fingers' work, check out Sparky. Great peak, very consistent.
33)Ron Cey - I remember his late Topps cards. Lots of very small print on the back. He compares favourably to the other eligible 3Bs. I'd still take Rosen's monster peak over his steady production, but it's close.
34)Norm Cash - Too much in one year - and that was not the best year for an everlasting peak, for a number of reasons.
((34a)Joe Gordon - Neither here nor there. Not the peak, nor the career. War credit obviously helps him, but not enough for me.))
((34b)Dobie Moore - Peak too short, not enough surrounding it. Wreckers play helps, but not enough at present.))

35)Addie Joss - ERA/+ and WHIP are great, but why so little black ink?
((35a)Cupid Childs))
36)Fred Dunlap - Very short career. Very good, too.
37)Rollie Fingers - When he was on, forget about it. Unfortunately, I don't feel that he was on consistently enough to merit anything, much higher than this.
38)Bucky Walters - Very similar to Pierce in overall picture - but built differently.
39)Don Newcombe - big beneficiary of pitcher's fielding analysis.
40)Tommy John - I think I like his overall picture just a smidgen more than Sutton's.
((40a)Don Sutton - Had a peak, but not an exceptional one. His durability pushes him above Tiant.))
41)Luis Tiant - Undoubtedly a wonderful pitcher, but of the type who don't do that well in my system.I wasn't Billy Pierce's biggest fan, but I still liked Billy (and Marichal and Bunning) more than Tiant, so he starts off over here.
42)Tony Perez - I wasn't giving him the extra glove credit he earned through 5 seasons as the Reds' 3B. Still, no peak. As far as 1B go, I have Cepeda up higher because of his very nice peak and his not too short career as a regular. Ben Taylor suffers from a lack of documented stats. The stats there show that he could flat out mash the ball by dead-ball standards. Contemporaries say his glove was the best they had ever seen at 1B. Very apt, in this year of the Hernandez discussion. How much as a scoop worth? I think it's worth alot. I maintain that while a below average defensive 1B can cause little harm, an above average glove at 1B will provide a hefty bonus to the team lucky enough to employ one.
43)Fred Carroll - I give him around 1.5 seasons prime MiL credit. Better than Tenace.
44)Larry Doyle - If only the glove were just a little better.
45)Phil Rizzuto
46)Cecil Travis - A very worthy extra credit case.
((46a)Jake Beckley - Always very good. No peak, all prime. Defense is overrated. I have read about his arm being so weak (and erratic) that runners were able to take the extra base on him. Not sure how that works at 1B, but worth noting. See Perez comment for more about my 1B thoughts.))
47)Jimmy Ryan
48)Fred Lynn - Very similar to Duffy and Roush. Loses a lot of ground due to in-season durability concerns for an otherwise very strong candidate. Should be appealing to Browning/Chance/McGraw supporters who overlook that sort of thing.
((48a)Charlie Keller - Let's start with extra credit questions. I do not give minor league MLE credit for being blocked. Integration, yes. Non-MLB affiliation, yes. Having someone else the franchise liked better at the time above you, no. He had serious durability issues. Are high rate stats easier to maintain when not playing a full schedule. It would seem so. A very talented bat, nevertheless. Another voter asked how would Keller and Kiner have fared if they were essentially traded for one another. I have a nagging doubt in my gut that we wouldn't have discussed Keller that much if he played on a different franchise. A great player when on the field. So was Fred Lynn. Charley Jones played more full seasons without blacklist credit than Keller did with both WWII and minor league credit. As I'll only give Keller the WWII credit and I am giving Jones 2 years of blacklist credit, that gives Charley Jones double the career (a pennant is a pennant). Bob Johnson was every inch the hitter Keller was, but in great obscurity and for much longer. What about Wally Berger? Another hard core masher with a short career (still a fair bit longer than Keller's though - and he played CF (and he played it well!)))
49)Cy Williams
50)Amos Otis
51)Dolf Camilli
52)Fielder Jones - I was missing on him a bit. A very apt first name. Solid bat as well.
53)Pete Browning - A superior masher, but a horrible person to have on your team. No defensive value whatsoever and very very poor durability. Worse than most contemporary catchers.
54)Steve Garvey - Something between Perez and McCormick. Nice size career, defensive value, could hit a bit - nothing overwhelming though.
55)Jim Bottomley - More than just a Frankie Frisch mistake.
56)George Kell
57)Frank McCormick - One of the finest 1B gloves in MLB hitter, and a decent hitter as well.
58)Bob Elliott - A little 3B run here
59)Graig Nettles - Among 3B, I figure he sits nicely here between Elliott and Bando. The better question to ask is if I am underrating 3B in general. I'll have to look into it a bit more later. Nettles is the best defensive 3B on my ballot. I think he was better than Boyer as well.
60)Sal Bando
61)Buddy Bell - Fits in rather nicely in this run of HOVG 3B.
62)Pie Traynor
63)Ed Williamson - I was missing a little something here.
64)Johnny Evers
65)Elston Howard
66)Joe Wood - If he had one more really good year as a pitcher, he'd be balloted
67)Bill Mazeroski
68)Tony Lazerri - Similar value to Maz. Accrued very differently.
69)Tommy Leach - I had missed him until now - I don't see the great love for him, though.
70)Vic Willis - A reexamination of all pitchers to include fielding ability causes an adjustment for Willis and a jump up the consideration set.
71)Thurmon Munson - see below.
72)Roger Bresnahan - Not like the two above or below, he is among those negatively affected by my new adjustments.
73)Walker Cooper - some days, he reminds me of Quincey Trouppe
74)Johnny Pesky
75)Hippo Vaughn
76)George Kell - Had him a bit too high earlier.
77)Cesar Cedeno - Found him to be comparable to Amos Otis and Jimmy Wynn in total value. Slots lower than those two in light of the shape of that value.
78)Vada Pinson - The ink really threw me for a twist. He looks like a good all-round CF, not great. But he amassed hefty ink totals for his generation. This may be a safe ranking.
79)Luis Aparicio - The low OPS+ masks his real effectiveness.
80)Tip O'Neill - The next Canadian.
81)Rocky Colavito
82)Chuck Klein - Drops like a rock. Great hitter Not much else. What separates him from Cravath. Not sure at the moment, really. I guess Cravath has those extra credit intangibles.
83)Denny Lyons
84)John McGraw - Hurt alot by my readjustment - no durability. Tsk, tsk.
85)George Van Haltren - see the comment on Wynn. Van Haltren is the big loser on the CF sweepstakes due to his poor fielding by my own accounts.
86)Rabbit Maranville
   42. Rusty Priske Posted: June 12, 2007 at 12:37 PM (#2401075)
PHoM: Ryan, Randolph, B.Johnson

1. Nolan Ryan (6,x,x)

I couldn't keep him below Perez. Will be a shoo-in this year.

2. Tony Perez (4,3,1)

Very underrated.

3. Willie Randolph (8,14,x)

There are some who will decry his induction as a mistake. They will be wrong, in my opinion.

4. George Van Haltren (5,4,6)

I keep hoping.

5. Lou Brock (11,9,10)

He was a lot better than people are giving him credit for.

6. Tommy Leach (7,8,9)

7. Rusty Staub (10,6,3)

8. Mickey Welch (9,7,12)

9. Hugh Duffy (12,11,13)

10. Graig Nettles (14,10,11)

11. Norm Cash (x,x,x)

Returns after an absence of a few years.

12. Reggie Smith (15,15,14)

13. Ken Singleton (13,13,x)

14. Bob Johnson (x,x,x)

I have been udnerrating him.

15. Dick Redding (x,x,x)

16-20. Cepeda, Bonds, Browning, Doyle, Willis
21-25. Murphy, Grimes, S.Rice, Clark, Streeter
26-30. McCormick, Strong, Greene, Gleason, W.Davis

I think my PHoM and the HoM diverge again as Goose will likely be inducted, despite not even making the Top 30 in mine. I think he is overrated among relievers AND I think the value of releivers is overrated. That is a bad comination. He is better than Fingers, though.
   43. karlmagnus Posted: June 12, 2007 at 01:16 PM (#2401105)
I recognize that my methods cause me to underrate Gossage compared to the consensus, but that's why we have voting; the HOM will look nothing like my PHOM. I suggest that others' systems may overrate reliever peaks, since they comprise so few innings, whereas mine takes account of the whole career. But I can see the argument the other way, and Gossage is certainly the best case of it.

On my methods, he's well below both Schilling and Mussina (giving nither credit for any future activity), both of whom I would expect the HOM to enshrine but not by much. We will almost certainly have a disagreement about Eckersley, who I would also rate below Schilling and Mussina and indeed Smoltz.
   44. sunnyday2 Posted: June 12, 2007 at 01:21 PM (#2401108)
Modern pitching is a morass not unlike pre-1893 pitching. Then, it was too many innings. Now, it's not enough. And that includes the starters not just the relievers.
   45. TomH Posted: June 12, 2007 at 01:27 PM (#2401112)
New Millenium Ballot
Review of Hanrahan’s value system: career value with a fairly high replacement level (slightly below average). Something like RCAP adjusted for defense and league strength, or WARP3 minus 2.5 wins per full year, or WS minus 11 per year adjusted for league quality. Small credit for pitcher “peak”, none for hitters. Some subjective estimating of ability across time and place. I rank the long primes higher than most of us.

(x) indicates where I voted for them last ballot
[y] indicates their consensus rank from last ballot

I’m out of whack on only 3 of my 15, and I only have one top 10 required disclosure, which I guess ‘splains why my consensus score is high. Still, I’m surprised since I do vote for 3 guys that are finishing waaay off ballot, that more voters aren’t more consensus-y than me.

1- Nolan Ryan (4) [4]
I had a Korean roommate in college who was a big baseball fan. Like many who spoke his native tongue and similar languages of the Far East, he hadn’t developed the difference between our ‘R’ and ‘L’ sounds. It was amusing to hear him discuss (or attempt to write down!) Noran Lyne, or some such name.
2- Willie Randolph (5) [5]
Nellie Fox, except he hit better and played in a stronger league. I did not think of him as a HoFer when he was active.
3- John McGraw (6) [40]
Dominant 9 year prime. Provided huge advantage over every other MLB team at third base. Can I interest friends of guys like Dale Murphy and the Goose (solid 10-yr prime types) to consider looking under this rock here?
4- Goose Gossage {new}
Ten year run as an awesome 100 IP/season fireman.
5- Roger Bresnahan (7) [14]
Best catcher of his era. Position flexibility not a minus.
6- Bob Johnson (8) [13]
Very good long prime; clearly better over a dozen year stretch than our other backlog OFers. One very good MinorLg year of credit also.
7- Reggie Smith (9) [33]
Too fragile for peak (big seasons) voters, not long enough career for career voters. But guys, he won lots of games for his teams. Lots. More than all of the men below him.
8- Bucky Walters (10) [8]
Faced strong opponents, pitched real well, hit real well too.
9- George Van Haltren (11) [19]
Speed and on-base skills made him very valuable in his day. Add in a long career, including pitching, and you get a HoMer.
10- Frank Chance (12) [58]
A great player on great teams. <u>Better hitter than Gavy Cravath AND Charley Jones.</u>.
11- Rollie Fingers (13) [6]
Helping the A’s to at least one WS ring, & lots of inherited runners stranded get him on the ballot.
12- Dick Redding (14) [7]
Comes out better by anecdotes than by MLEs.
13- Bill Monroe (off) [58]
Dominant in his day.
14- Luis Tiant (15) [31]
Small bonuses for few unearned runs and great post-season stats.
15- Dave Stieb (off) [10]
Best at a time when it was tough to dominate.


Other Newbies

Charlie Hough – I still laugh recalling Bill James’ “rough tough Charlie Hough” poetry.

Jack Morris – peak? No. Prime? OK. Career? Nah. Nice choice of teammates, some of whom got hosed by the HoF. Overrated.

Returning top 10 disclosure:
Pete Browning – awash in a sea of look-alike sluggers

16-20 Elliot Reuschel Nettles Grimes E Howard
21-25 D Newcombe B Bonds B Clarkson T Bridges D DiMaggio
26-31 Perez, N Cash, P Traynor, O Cepeda, D Concepcion, U Shocker
32-37 T Leach, P Browning, A Oms, W Schang, D Dean, B Bell
38-42 R Cey, T Munson, L Brock, P Rizzuto, S Bando
43-47 Bancroft, M Welch, L Aparicio, R Maranville, E Lombardi
48-53 L Easter, L Doyle, J Fregosi, C Mays, C Jones, H Duffy
   46. andrew siegel Posted: June 12, 2007 at 01:53 PM (#2401132)
(1) Ryan (4th)-- So overrated, he's underrated. Easy HOMer based on career value, peak with Angels, and high-rate low-inning seasons later in his career. Has too may innings on Gossage.

(2) Rich Gossage (new)--Like Wilhelm and Rivera, the best of his generation by a large margin. Happy to leave it at that.

(3) Bridges (5th)--Who says I don't like pitchers? Like Cash, Schang, Ted Lyons, Roush, etc., he's underrated by our tendency to focus on seasonal numbers. Put up lots of quality and sufficient quantity. I have him with 8 truly excellent seasons--no pitcher outside the HoM has more. I never thought he'd get this high on the ballot, but I see no reason to jump him just b/c/ he's now in an elect-me spot.

(4) Oms (6th)--The contemporaries thought he was an All-Time great and the numbers (as thin as they are) back them up. Moved way up as others slide down the ballot. His case has no holes.

(5) Cash (7th)--Similar in career length, offensive value, and defensive value to Wynn but a smidge higher on all three according to WARP and more consistent to boot. Dan's study costs him a few points based on the ease of dominance in the 1960s AL, but others droped too. A lot like Hernandez, only in a substantially weaker league.

(6) Reggie Smith (8th)--Very similar on all dimensions to Cash and Wynn; similar offensively to Roush and Johnson. A bit more consistent than Wynn. More career value than Dale Murphy in a similar opportunity context.

(7) Leach (9th)--If you subtract Brooks Robinson's final useless seasons and project Leach's years out to 162 games, Robinson and Leach have almost identical EQA's and defensive rates in a very similar number of games. The only difference is that half of Leach's games were in CF rather than 3B. Hard to imagine that keeping him out of the HoM. A lot like Darrell Evans, only with contemporary reports that match his stellar defensive numbers.

(8) Dave Stieb (10th)--Best pitcher in the game briefly; lots of quality in a relatively few number of innings. As you can tell by my rankings of Bridges and Shocker, I like this profile better than most.

(9) Urban Shocker (11th)--Joe makes his case well. He didn't pitch a ton of innings or a ton of years but--when you combine durability and quality and adjust for defense--he was one of the best handful of pitchers in the game for a decade. A lot like Tommy Bridges or Dave Stieb.

(10) Bob Johnson (12th)--Doesn't jump out at you, but no major knocks on his resume--highest OWP of any long-career OF still on the board, over 300 WS with proper minor leaue credit even playing for bad teams, great consistency, excellent fielder for his position. Since his era and position are already well-represented and he doesn't have a great peak, he losses the most with Dan's numbers, but I still find him worthy.

(11) Elliot (13th)--My tools aren't good enough to distinguish between him and Boyer. Nettles, Bell, Bando, and Cey are also similar, but the glut of 3B in the 1970's suggests that something was different then than when Elliot (and perhaps Boyer) were playing.

(12) Rollie Fingers (13th)--When you make adjustments for leverage and postseason performance he is right in the mix with Shocker, et al.

(13) Ben Taylor (15th)--I missed the boat on him. I had him comped to Konetchy and, therefore, outside the top 50. But (1) I had Konetchy too low and (2) his offense was one rung better than Ed's. As a result, he is much closer to Hernandez or Cash. Might deserve to rank higher.

(14) Cravath (nr/16th)--I give full minor league credit and see him as the best hitter not in HoM. The knock is that the other candidates for that title (folks like Tiernan, Charley Jones, Browning, Fournier, and Frank Howard are much further down ballot).

(15) Dale Murphy (nr/17th)--His case rests on six seasons. We have elected a bunch of guys who reached a similar plateau for seven years (e.g., Wynn) and rejected a number who were there for only four or five (e.g., Parker). Six seasons is a very close call.

(16) Duffy
(17) Chance
(18) Bancroft
(19) Cepeda
(20) Bresnahan
(21) Charley Jones
(22) Van Haltren
(23) Perez
(24) Rizzuto
(25) Schang
(26) Staub
(27) Bonds
(28) Grimes
(29) Cey
(30) John
(31) Singleton
(32) Stephens
(33) E. Howard
(34) Doyle
(35) Monroe
(36) Berger
(37) Nettles
(38) Jimmy Ryan
(39) Randolph
(40) McGraw
(41) Frank Howard
(42) Welch

When you adjust Browning for league quality, you get a guy with a mid 140's OPS+ and roughly 9-plus years of playing time with limited defensive value. I have him somewhere between 45 and 60th.

Dick Redding is in the category of Negro Leaguers whose numbers don't back up their reputations. He doesn't crack my top 60.

Bucky Walters is ok, but his defensive help was enormous. He's in the late 40's.

I like Randolph a little better than Fox, a little worse than Monroe. He was a good player for a long time and is ranked near others who fit that profile (e.g., Ryan, Nettles).

Morris is probably about 90th.
   47. DL from MN Posted: June 12, 2007 at 03:57 PM (#2401269)
Fluit, nice to see Bridges and Bob Johnson on your ballot.
   48. Catfish326 Posted: June 12, 2007 at 04:42 PM (#2401339)
Tony Perez - Being average forever has value but the 3B years put him on the ballot.


Many give Perez props for playing third base for a while . . . ya, he played some third base, but not well. Give Larry Biittner props for pitching, even though he had an ERA of over 40.00. Also, when you consider Perez was hitting behind Rose, Griffey, Morgan, and sometimes Bench, chrikey, Mike Jorgensen could have knocked in 90 runs a season.
   49. Chris Fluit Posted: June 12, 2007 at 04:54 PM (#2401353)
Fluit, nice to see Bridges and Bob Johnson on your ballot.


Thank you. I notice they're fairly close to where you have them placed as well.

3- John McGraw (6) [40]
Dominant 9 year prime. Provided huge advantage over every other MLB team at third base. Can I interest friends of guys like Dale Murphy and the Goose (solid 10-yr prime types) to consider


Here's the problem with John McGraw's "dominant 9 year prime."

Year/Games Played/Team Games/Percentage of Team Games Played

1893: 127 of 130, 98%
1894: 124 of 128, 97%
1895: 96 of 130, 74%
1896: 23 of 129, 18%
1897: 106 of 130, 81%
1898: 143 of 149, 96%
1899: 117 of 148, 79%
1900: 99 of 140, 71%
1901: 73 of 133, 55%

That "9 year prime" only includes 3 full seasons. John McGraw was so good that in some of those years, 80% of John McGraw was better than 100% of anybody else at his position. But is John McGraw a HoMer with 3 full seasons, 4 partial seasons (74, 81, 79 and 71%) which would add up to 3 full season and another 1/2 season (55%)? That's only 6 1/2 years of prime, not 9. A 9-year prime without much else and he's probably in. A 6 1/2 year prime with nothing else, and well, he's a "cult movie" candidate to pure peak voters.
   50. TomH Posted: June 12, 2007 at 05:04 PM (#2401376)
Yes, Mugsy only played 6.7 yrs of 9, which is 74%, or effectively just over 8% of the team's 9-man play.

Which is more than Goose had over his 10-yr prime; what, maybe 7% of the team's IP?

Someone took my Sinins BB encyc, so I can't run the numbers, but if someone showed a table of MLB (primarily) third basemen between 1893-1901, we would see RC and RCAA and RCAP so far ahead of most teams' play at 3B that few would worry about the playing time issues. He's a lot like Pedro, 2001-03, with stellar stats but merely averaging 1 IP/G.
   51. DanG Posted: June 12, 2007 at 05:05 PM (#2401377)
Most outfielder Assists, 1876-1918
1—375 J. Ryan
2—348 G. VanHaltren
3—348 Tom Brown

(I'll give Tom Brown second, he doesn't get much else.)
That is, the career leaders from 1876

DanG, are you missing some stats for 1871-75?

Well, yeah, okay. I really ought to go back to 1871. Doing that adds one assist to Shaffer's total. No other players move close to making the list; adding their NA numbers gets Hines up to 237, and O'Rourke up to 228.

Outfielders weren't scoring many Baserunner Kills in the 1870's. Lipman Pike, for one, had more than twice as many errors as assists in his OF career. Someone needs to era-adjust OF assist totals so we have a better idea who was outgunning his peers.
   52. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: June 12, 2007 at 05:16 PM (#2401395)
Chaleeko is Eastern European for Consensus, eh?

As Stephen Colbert is going to put it later this year, I Am Consensus (And So Can You). There's much truthiness (or consensusness?) in my ballot.

In all seriousness and barely tangential to the question of my consenusness, I'm finally seeing the effects of size in clear ways. Sort of. The HOM is matching the HOF in number, as its mandate charges it to. But my experience in the last several elections leads me to believe that the HOF and HOM should be about 10-20 men smaller. After 100 years of elections, after reviewing thousands of candidates, and after reading and participating in a ton of debates on guys, methodologies, histories, and more, the candidate pool has become vastly more murky to my eyes in recent times.

I haven't generally advocated a small HOM or HOF, nor a big one---I'd always believed it was about the right size. Now I merely believe that a better total would be a slightly smaller one than ~230. In idealized HOF terms, with a membership composed of something like 30% or more iffy/mistake guys, that leads me to suggest the real HOF should actually expand to catch the big mistakes, then clamp down on the backlog thereafter, and go on ignoring George Kelly. But for the HOM it just means I might cut my own ten or so least favorites out (and perhaps sub in a few I like for others I'm iffy on) and call it "good."

If this in itself were the only lesson I'd learned, I would be grateful to have learned something very interesting and valuable from this project. Luckily I have learned much, much more. [It's just not evident in my posts!!!]
   53. DanG Posted: June 12, 2007 at 06:34 PM (#2401494)
No matter what size HOF you have, the bottom 15-20% will be barely distinguishable from an equal number left outside. IOW, if you have a 50-player HOF, the bottom 8-10 players will hardly be distinguishable from the next ten left out. In our case, with a 234-player Hall, the bottom ~40 players are barely distinguishable from another 40 not elected.

The problem with the Coop, of course, is their three dozen plus members who are below the quality of the 80 guys on the margins.
   54. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: June 12, 2007 at 06:53 PM (#2401510)
No matter what size HOF you have, the bottom 15-20% will be barely distinguishable from an equal number left outside. IOW, if you have a 50-player HOF, the bottom 8-10 players will hardly be distinguishable from the next ten left out. In our case, with a 234-player Hall, the bottom ~40 players are barely distinguishable from another 40 not elected.

I used to think that was true. I'm less sure now. That's my experience, though I don't think everyone else will share it. No knock on the HOM, of course.
   55. DCW3 Posted: June 12, 2007 at 06:55 PM (#2401514)
I'm sure someone can use BB-Ref and find out where Gossage's ERA+ ranks among relievers during his career.

You know, many people have noted that Gossage's lousy year as a starter brings down his overall numbers. And it's true: remove that year, and, by my calculations, he'd have a career ERA+ of 132 in 1585.3 innings. Kent Tekulve, whose career overlapped completely with Gossage's, had a 132 ERA+ in 1436.3 innings. Not that ERA+ is everything, but it's interesting.
   56. sunnyday2 Posted: June 12, 2007 at 07:47 PM (#2401590)
My personal HoF would be the size of the BBWAA HoF/no VC/no nuthin' but what the BBWAA did. I would include NeLers in that number. That's what I would personally do. So it would be about half the size of the HoF/HoM.
   57. Paul Wendt Posted: June 12, 2007 at 08:36 PM (#2401659)
In all seriousness and barely tangential to the question of my consensusness, I'm finally seeing the effects of size in clear ways.

You're feeling the effects of information overload.
Welcome to the club.
   58. Paul Wendt Posted: June 12, 2007 at 09:01 PM (#2401682)
Tekulve is the Bob Johnson of relief pitchers, or the Sam Leever. Thirteen prime seasons, as consistent as anyone, age 28-40. Sum about 1300 innings at OPS+ 136 or so. He is clearly within the top ten and without the top two. Among all pro ballplayers, clearly within the top 500 and clearly outside the top 200.
(Leever slipped out of the starter's role after ten years but I can't do better offhand.)

Forcing thirteen seasons upon Gossage, they are the same years, 1975-1987, age 23-35. Gossage didn't last that long at a recognizable level but from 1975 to the end he pitched about 1350 innings at OPS+ 140 or so.
   59. TomH Posted: June 13, 2007 at 01:58 PM (#2402496)
test.. no posts for 17 hrs, just checkin...
   60. DanG Posted: June 13, 2007 at 02:31 PM (#2402524)
leads me to suggest the real HOF should actually expand to catch the big mistakes, then clamp down on the backlog thereafter

Agreed. Which is exactly why the HOF needs a special 19th century committee, similar to the Black baseball committee of 2006. The vast majority of the Coop's errors of omission are among the players at the opposite poles of their considerations set: players from the 1860's-70's-80's and players from the 1960's-70's-80's.
   61. Paul Wendt Posted: June 13, 2007 at 05:10 PM (#2402686)
That snags Ezra Sutton and Ron Santo!

John McGraw, Tommy Leach, Heinie Groh, Stan Hack, Bob Elliott, and Ken Boyer have their supporters here but they are rarely named among the great Cooperstown omissions.
(Actually, the Cooperstown structure doesn't permit McGraw or anyone else to match Lenny Wilkens double membership in the basketball hall of fame.)

That 19th Century should be a committee empowered to elect, like the recent Cmte on African American Baseball, and to consider more than ten seasons of official major league baseball (ie, from 1876). When there was a committee to nominate and "portfolio" candidates for the veterans committee, it focused on the 80s-90s-00s, no one older than Jack Glasscock. Annual advance coverage in the newspaper always named Van Haltren and Ryan (the hits leaders?), who weren't even recommended.

If it would embrace all contributions to baseball, it should cover the African-Americans, too, namely Bud Fowler. More than a year ago I referred Dick Clark to the 1913 account of Fowler's career --by Indianapolis newspaper interview with Fowler, who was probably dying. He said thank you and he wished he knew about that at the screening stage.
   62. Paul Wendt Posted: June 13, 2007 at 05:12 PM (#2402690)
test.. no posts for 17 hrs, just checkin...

I hope people read the title else they won't recognize it as a ballot thread (cha cha grin)
   63. AJMcCringleberry Posted: June 13, 2007 at 09:14 PM (#2402875)
PHOM - Ryan, Gossage, Murphy

1. Nolan Ryan - Pretty good. 5000+ IP, 5000+ Ks.

2. Tony Perez - Long career (23rd in games, 34th in total bases, 62nd in runs created) and a nice peak split between third and first.

3. Bucky Walters - Great peak and good career value, 3000+ IP 115 ERA+.

4. Rusty Staub - Very long career (11th all time in games, 30th all time in ABs) with a decent peak. 59th in career total bases, 72nd in career XBH, 36th in career times on base.

5. Goose Gossage - Second best reliever so far. Very dominant for about a 10 year run.

6. Dale Murphy - Great hitting centerfielder. Excellent peak from '82-'87.

7. Dizzy Trout - Nice peak. '44 was fantastic, he was robbed of MVP by teammate Newhouser.

8. Jimmy Ryan - Good hitting center fielder, long career

9. Dave Stieb - Not that much different that Trout. Didn't have that one monster year like Trout.

10. Bob Johnson - Outstanding hitter, never below a 125 OPS+ in his major league career.

11. Gavvy Cravath - Superb hitter, not much of a defender. Gets a couple of minor league seasons added to his major league totals. 4th on the all time home run list when he retired.

12. Graig Nettles - Excellent defender, good hitter over a long career. Brooks Robinson-lite.

13. Frank Tanana - Pitched a long time and was average or better for most of it. Similar to Tommy John, but had better peak.

14. Buddy Bell - Very similar to Nettles. Both decent hitters and great defenders with long careers.

15. Ken Singleton - 132 OPS+. Very good peak, 4 year with an OPS+ over 150

16. Bobby Bonds
17. Ceasar Cedeno
18. Dave Parker
19. Vada Pinson
20. Tommy John
21. Norm Cash
22. Willie Randolph
23. Elston Howard
24. Hugh Duffy
25. Tommy Leach
26. Bus Clarkson
27. Bob Elliott
28. Ron Cey
29. Marvin Williams
30. Dave Concepcion
31. George Van Haltren
32. Harry Hooper
33. Luis Tiant
34. Alejandro Oms
35. Buzz Arlett
36. Orlando Cepeda
37. Gil Hodges
38. Burleigh Grimes
39. Reggie Smith
40. Jack Clark
41. Jose Cruz
42. Willie Davis
43. Fielder Jones
44. Dick Redding
45. Rick Reuschel
46. Pie Traynor
47. Jim Kaat
48. Gene Tenace
49. George Foster
50. Pete Browning

Fingers - I'm not sure about him, I'd like for a relief pitcher to have more than a couple of dominant seasons.
   64. Mark Donelson Posted: June 13, 2007 at 11:53 PM (#2403080)
I’m a peak voter, though an amazing prime or really strong career will overwhelm my peak preferences in my (revamped) system. I rely heavily on WS for hitters, with OPS+ and a little WARP thrown in as well. For starting pitchers, I prefer PRAA, with some ERA+ adjustments and a little WS (which I don’t love for pitchers) for good measure. For relievers, I’ve adopted a mix of career total PRAA and year-by-year peak PRAA, with an emphasis on the latter, which seems to produce the most sensible results I can come up with.

No big changes this time. As far as the backlog goes, I looked over the recent big names (Stieb, Randolph, Murphy) to see if I liked where I had them, and decided I had Stieb a little too low, Murphy a little too high, and Randolph more or less right.

pHOM: Gossage, N. Ryan, K. Hernandez

2000 ballot:

1. Rich Gossage (pHOM 2000). My bar is pretty high for relievers—Goose is only the second one I’ve ever voted for, I’m fairly certain. But his peak dwarfs those of any of the others we’ve seen so far, and his prime/career aren’t too shabby either. I think he’s neck-and-neck with Wilhelm, and I might lean toward Goose if forced to pick.

2. Dizzy Dean (pHOM 1967). Sure, it’s a really short peak (which is why he’s not even higher), but he was inarguably dominant during it. It’s just long enough for me.

3. Ed Williamson (pHOM 1931). A lost cause, but still the best of the backlog 3Bs, for my taste. As Sunny always points out, great peak on both offense and defense.

4. Elston Howard (pHOM 1976). The various extenuating circumstances of his career can’t hide the great (if short) peak.

5. Vic Willis (pHOM 1961). Not the most dominant pitcher of his era, perhaps, but he was in the mix with some of the all-time greats. Excellent peak.

6. Pete Browning (pHOM 1979). An offensive force, if not as much of one as the insane AA numbers make it appear. His non-AA years prove that he wasn’t just a soft-league fluke.

7. Nolan Ryan (pHOM 2000). Perhaps somewhat underrated by SABR-types now—all those Ks and innings have a lot of merit. But man, that’s a lot of walks. Despite the no-hitters and the general awesomeness and the Ventura-punching, I find that he’s just not dominant enough to beat out Dean and Willis on my ballot—at least, not dominant in the season-by-season (as opposed to game-by-game) way I mean. In the end, I have him just a little better overall than Drysdale—which puts him in the HOM easily, of course, but not in the higher tiers.

8. Gavvy Cravath (pHOM 1985). Every time I reevaluated outfielders, he would do a little better. Now I can’t believe he hasn’t been here all along. With minor-league credit, he’s got the peak I look for.

9. Luis Tiant (pHOM 1991). No, he wasn't Carlton/Niekro/Perry/Jenkins—too inconsistent, not good enough long enough—but he packed enough brilliance into several years to get my vote.

10. Charley Jones (pHOM 1976). As with Browning, his numbers are covered in the AA mist, but I’m convinced he played at a high enough level long enough for induction—at his best, he was pretty clearly a force.

11. Al Rosen (pHOM 1968). Another very short peak, but five great years, especially at this position, are enough for me. He drops several spots after the tweaks to my system.

12. Hugh Duffy (pHOM 1930). Finally makes his way back to the ballot after a demotion some years ago. I still like his peak—just not as much as I used to when I was almost giving him elect-me spots.

13. Ken Singleton (pHOM 1997). Another of the “I had no idea he was this good at the time” gang—I think he was the player most felt Rice was back then.

[13a. Keith Hernandez (pHOM 2000). I wasn’t quite as high as the rest of the electorate was on him, but in the end his extended excellence both offensively and defensively get him into my pHOM.]

14. John McGraw (pHOM 1996). Another tiny peak, but it seems good enough to outstrip the recent 3B glut to me (and at this position, it’s not like the years outside the peak are useless).

15. Larry Doyle (pHOM 1995). Yes, it’s a pretty short peak, and the weakness of era is also noted—those are the two things that have kept him off my ballot this long. And yes, I know he’s more like a modern 3B than a 2B. But his five-year peak compares favorably with those guys’, too.
   65. Mark Donelson Posted: June 13, 2007 at 11:55 PM (#2403088)
16-20: Redding (1975), [Minoso], Trout (1997), Pesky (1997), Oms (1996), [W. Wells], F. Howard
21-25: [Da. Evans], Cicotte (1972), Bando, Fingers, [Ashburn], Bresnahan (1973), Rizzuto
26-30: [Dw. Evans], Leach, Walters (1968), Nettles, Stieb, Parker
31-35: McCormick, G. Burns, Clarkson, [Boyer], H. Smith, Berger
36-40: Gomez (1987), Sutter, Dunlap, D. Murphy, Cepeda
41-45: Viola, Avila, Quisenberry, [Doerr], M. Marshall, Elliott
46-50: Shocker, P. Guerrero, Munson, Stephens, Bo. Bonds

Required Explanations and Newbies:

•Randolph. Much as I’d love to cast a vote for one of my childhood heroes, I just don’t see it. The argument for him seems to revolve around his quality of play compared to that of other 2Bs in his era, and as with Concepcion, that’s just not terribly convincing to me. Otherwise, it takes a lot of extra fielding credit (which I do give, having been convinced that WS often undervalues fielding significantly) to get him up around Marvin Williams, which leaves him just outside my top 50.

•Fingers. A tough nut to crack, but in the end I feel he doesn’t quite have the peak I’m looking for. All the other factors pump up his standing, though, and he hovers right near my eventual in/out line for my pHOM. He’s at #23 right now.

•Redding. Not quite the peak (as far as we can tell, anyway) of my favorite pitching candidates, but he’s very close. At #16, he’s just off my ballot, and as with a few other guys (McGraw, Doyle), I don’t know if I can keep him off much longer.

•Walters. He’s actually in my pHOM, but I’ve soured a bit on him of late—his WS numbers are lovely, but his PRAA numbers don’t match up. I split the difference (leaning harder on the PRAA, admittedly), so he’s at #27.

•Stieb. I agree with the growing consensus that he’s a lot like Walters. But I’m not as high on Walters as I once was. I did have him a bit too low, though—I moved him up to #29 this time.

•Jack Morris. Count me among those that don’t just think he’s overrated—I think he’s immensely overrated. To me, he ranks among guys like Mike Garcia and Rube Marquard. He was a very, very good pitcher, a bulldog on the mound, and that World Series game was incredible. But he’s not even close to consideration for my ballot.

•Hough & Bob Welch. Overall, they both end up pretty much where Morris does—not close to my top 50.

•Viola. He does very well in my system, but his supershort but great peak kind of games it, really. (It’s not like he was Koufax in those peak years, either.) Upon investigation, it’s clear Stieb was the better pitcher overall, by a decent margin. Nonetheless, Viola is the only newly eligible starting pitcher to crack my top 50; he debuts at #41.

•Hrbek. Classic HoVG type, but not enough to get close to my consideration set at this position.

•Reardon. Among the top 20 or so relievers we’ve seen so far, but closer to guys like Ron Perranoski and Sparky Lyle than to the Gossage-Fingers-Sutter-Quisenberry-Marshall group. Not close to my top 50.
   66. Rick A. Posted: June 14, 2007 at 01:04 AM (#2403286)
PHOM
Nolan Ryan
Rich Gossage
Dave Stieb

2000 Ballot
1. Charley Jones – Truly great hitter who missed 2 years in his prime. Elected PHOM in 1921.
2. Pete Browning – Great hitter. Elected PHOM in 1925
3. Vic Willis – Very good pitcher. I like him better than Waddell. Elected PHOM in 1945.
4. Dick Redding –Elected PHOM in 1968
5. Hugh Duffy – Better than Van Haltren and Ryan, Elected PHOM in 1970
6. Nolan Ryan - Much better than Sutton. Elected PHOM in 2000
7. Rich Gossage - 2nd best reliever eligible so far. Elected PHOM in 2000.
8. Burleigh Grimes – Higher peak than Rixey. Elected PHOM in 1961
9. Dave Stieb - Jumps up in reevaluation this year. Slightly better than Walters. Elected PHOM in 2000.
10. Bucky Walters Very high peak. Elected PHOM in 1972
11. Alejandro Oms – Jumps up some on this ballot. Elected PHOM in 1978.
12. Ed Williamson – I’ll take him over Boyer. Elected PHOM in 1958
13. Ken Singleton – Jumps onto ballot after I adjust for the DH. Elected PHOM in 1997.
14. Dizzy Dean – Short career, but high peak. Koufax lite. Elected PHOM in 1973.
15. Elston Howard – Underrated. Elected PHOM in 1985

Required Disclosures - Wow. Only two required disclosures this year.
Willie Randolph Nice player. Compares well to Nellie Fox. Fox wasn't near my ballot.
Rollie Fingers Just misses my ballot.

New candidates
Charlie Hough Not as good as Kaat or John.
Jack Morris I think he was better than Viola, but nowhere near my ballot.
Frank Viola Decent peak, but just not enough.
Jeff Reardon Not as good as Gossage (or Fingers, Sutter, Quisenberry, etc.)
Kent Hrbek Neither peak nor career are long enough.

Off the ballot
16-20 Cravath,Sutter,Fingers,Munson,Bresnahan
21-25 Newcombe,(Waddell),(Carey),Leach,(Dw.Evans)
26-30 Murphy,(Rixey),Easter,Bond,Rosen
31-35 (Medwick),(BRobinson),(Ashburn),Matlock,Mays
36-40 Monroe,Rizzuto,(DSutton),(Gordon),Nettles
41-45 WCooper,(Terry),Elliott,Johnson,(Fox)
46-50 Traynor,(Boyer),(Faber),Randolph,Scales
51-55 Shocker,Clarkson,(Doerr),HSmith,FHoward
56-60 Bando,Bell,MWilliams,Perez,Doyle
61-65 FJones,Cey,HWilson,Van Haltren,JRyan
66-70 Schang,McGraw,AWilson,RSmith,Cepeda
71-75 Bancroft,(Sewell),Stephens,(Pierce),Poles
76-80 Winters,Mullane,ACooper,DiMaggio,Berger
81-85 Burns,Lynn,Taylor,Parker,Tiernan
86-90 (Thompson),JRice,Pinson,Cedeno,Pesky
91-95 Chance,Cash,Fournier,Brock,Bonds
96-100 JClark,Lundy,McCormick,(Beckley),Dunlap
   67. SWW Posted: June 14, 2007 at 04:37 AM (#2403581)
My lord. Way too much travel in the next week, so I’m rushing myself a little bit. Mostly everyone moves up. Quite confident about the top, though.

<u>2000 Ballot</u>
1) Lynn Nolan Ryan Jr – “The Express”
As promised last year. There’s a machine at the Rangers’ ballpark museum where you can simulate catching a Ryan fastball. Stings like a mother. 41st on Sporting News Top 100. 44th on SABR Top 100. 60th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 94th on Ken Shouler Top 100. New York Times Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
2) Richard Michael Gossage – “Goose”
Hated the Yankees, so I especially hated seeing Goose come into a game; it meant the game was over. The statistics bear out my memory; easily one of the premier relievers of his day, and deserving of a plaque from both us and the Cooperstown people.
3) Burleigh Arland Grimes – “Ol’ Stubblebeard”
My white whale. A successful pitcher with both a dead ball and a live one. Frequently one of the best pitchers in the league, and often the best pitcher on his team. Many comparisons to Early Wynn, whom we did elect, and most similar to Red Faber, whom we also elected. I heartily encourage people to review his case. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
4) Roland Glen Fingers – “Rollie”
Gossage is better, but Fingers is one of the best at his position, outdistances guys like Sutter, Lyle, and McGraw. Also, DanG calls him “the Grimes of RP’s”, which seems almost calculated to get my attention. 76th on SABR Top 100. 82nd on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 97th on Sporting News Top 100. New York Times Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
5) Atanasio Perez Rigal – “Tony”
6) Orlando Manuel Cepeda Pennes – “Baby Bull”
A similar pair. Tony has the edge in Win Shares. Cha Cha shows a greater impact compared to his team and his league. Tony has higher career and higher prime numbers, so right now he gets the advantage. Perez is 74th on Ken Shouler Top 100.
7) Carl William Mays
I have long considered Mays to be underrated, with better seasons and more milestones than more beloved candidates, like Luis Tiant and Billy Pierce. I think another review of pitchers may be in order, but I still believe that the pitchers of this era get short shrift.
8) Louis Clark Brock
Reaffirming my status as a career voter. He does well in Black and Gray Ink (owing, no doubt, to his prowess on the basepaths), and his prime WS and Top 10 WS seasons are notable. He’s hanging in there. 42nd on Ken Shouler Top 100. 58th on Sporting News Top 100. 73rd on SABR Top 100. 77th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. New York Times Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
9) Dale Bryan Murphy
A pleasant surprise. Similar in some ways to Hugh Duffy, in the peak-heavy nature of his career. A lot more of a prime, though, with 6 appearances in the NL Top 10 in Win Shares. New York Times Top 100.
10) Richard Redding – “Cannonball Dick”
Definitely the best remaining Negro League pitcher. That in and of itself may not merit his election. Hanging in there thanks to my support for Mays, who has a strikingly similar arc.
11) Edgar Charles Rice – “Sam”
An impressive career considering his late start. Not much in the way of peak, but considering how few Win Shares the Senators had to divvy up, he did pretty well. That flatness is of special concern, in light of the arrival of…
12) David Gene Parker – “Cobra”
If I’ve learned anything through my association with this project, it’s that while I’m a career voter, the importance of having a strong prime has grown a great deal in my estimation. It’s that thinking that keeps Parker on my ballot, and while I’m always reviewing the matter, I’m feeling alright about this placement. There’d be no doubt, if only he’d laid off the Colombian marching powder.
13) Daniel Joseph “Rusty” Staub – “Le Grand Orange”
I‘m moving him up, because his career numbers actually stand out more than I realized. 358 WS is nothing to sneeze at, but his 5-year prime of 145 WS is also a standout. Imagine if he’d spent his career with one great team. 96th on SABR Top 100. 97th on Ken Shouler Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
14) Graig Nettles
I remember him as a very consistent third baseman; no Schmidt or Brett, but significantly better than, say, Carney Lansford. I’m a little surprised he placed this high, but the numbers point to a strong career. Similar to Darrell Evans, who I thought went in kind of fast.
15) Hugh Duffy
He just bounces up and down. He sort of reminds me of George Sisler., who I supported for a very long time. Similarities to Murphy are mentioned above; Murphy’s distinctly better.


<u>Other Top 10 Finishers</u>
Willie Larry Randolph
Can’t get a handle on him. Career numbers are solid, but he was rarely among the most outstanding players in the league. Another peakless wonder. He remains close to the ballot, but not quite on.
William Henry Walters – “Bucky”
I’ve got a lot of pitchers ahead of him. In particular, I have him around Tiant and John, who are good, but not quite there.
Louis Rogers Browning – “Pete”
A little like Rube Waddell as a slugger. Definitely better than I expected, and I think there’s a very strong case to be made that he’s might be better than Wynn. His position and era are well-represented, and I’m not entirely convinced that he’s outstanding enough to move up. So many frickin’ center fielders.
David Andrew Stieb
I always liked Dave. Always thought he was a little underrated. But looking at the stats, he’s not that exceptional. Why him and not Dennis Martinez?
   68. sunnyday2 Posted: June 14, 2007 at 12:46 PM (#2403655)
2000 (elect 3)

Y'all know I'm a peak/prime voter, mostly WS and OPS+/ERA+. My disdain for Nolan Ryan does not prevent me from PHoMing him, and Joe Kelley makes it after all these years, along with the Goose, of course.

1. Goose Gossage (new, PHoM 2000)—well, I’ve got Fingers in an elect-me spot, and Goose was so much better it’s just ridiculous. Can I just leave #2 and #3 blank?

2. Rollie Fingers (3-2-3, PHoM 1991)—drops down from the 3 reliever of all-time to #4 as of right now, but that’s still plenty good for the HoM

3. Ed Williamson (5-6-7, PHoM 1924)—more peak and more glove than than almost any other IF

4. Pete Browning (6-4-3, PHoM 1961)

5. Addie Joss (7-7-4, PHoM 1967)—say what you will about Joss and Ryan—i.e. Joss not a workhorse, but no way was Ryan as effective except in the occasional 9 inning increment

6. Charley Jones (8-5-6, PHoM 1921)—Browning and Jones are a matched pair, both have the numbers even with AA discount

7. Nolan Ryan (9-new, PHoM 2000)—the Ks and no-hitters made him a superstar, but they don’t translate into the things I value. IOW his peak is defined as basically 9 innings where I like 3 to 5 years. So he is only a mid-level career candidate on WS and ERA+, not a peak candidate at all, and I’m not a career voter. Still, he goes here and will be PHoM someday.

8. Larry Doyle (10-9-10, PHoM 1975)—same OPS+ as Ed Roush, maybe his defensive value is more like that of a corner, but he hit better than the backlog corners that remain from his day

9. Frank Howard (11-13-12, PHoM 1987)—comps on this ballot are Cepeda and Cravath

10. Don Newcombe (12-14-15, PHoM 1997)—lost more opportunities than just about anybody since Bill Monroe, I see him basically as a guy who coulda been Robin Roberts

11. Gavvy Cravath (13-16-11, PHoM 1995)—see F. Howard

12. Dick Redding (14-11-13, PHoM 1971)—one of the rare peak/career candidates with no real prime

13. Phil Rizzuto (15-12-9, PHoM 1995)—306 career WS with war credit

14. Reggie Smith (16-8-5, PHoM 1988)—cannot quite see how he’s not better than Jim Wynn

15. Elston Howard (17-15-16, PHoM 1994)—see first part of Newcombe comment

Close—i.e. right around in/out line, as I think we will elect another 10-11 or so backloggers before we’re done

16. Orlando Cepeda (18-10-8, PHoM 1987)—pretty interchangeable with F. Howard and Cravath
17. Tommy Leach (19-17-17, PHoM 1998)
(17a. Joe Kelley [19a-17a-23a, PHoM 2000])
18. Johnny Pesky (20-19-28)
19. Ken Singleton (21-18-18)
20. Bus Clarkson (22-20-24)
(20a. Jimmy Sheckard [22a-20a-21a])

21. Alejandro Oms (24-21-25)
(21a. Quincy Trouppe [24a-21a-17a])
22. Vic Willis (25-25-22)
23. Al Rosen (26-22-23)
(23a. Dewey Evans [26a-22a-19])
24. Dan Quisenberry (27-23-20)
25. Fred Dunlap (28-26-46)

HoVVG

(25a. Joe Sewell [28a-26a-31a])
26. Vern Stephens (29-27-45)
27. Roger Bresnahan (30-28-27)
28. Sal Bando (31-32-30)
29. Norm Cash (32-24-21)
30. Hugh Duffy (33-33-35)
(30a. Jim Bunning [33a-33a-30a])

Walters and Stieb, coincidentally, are #45 and #46, while Randolph is #62. I think that all the other requireds are on my ballot.
   69. TomH Posted: June 14, 2007 at 01:20 PM (#2403671)
Wow, sunny. You are I are pretty far apart on the pre-1890 and post-expansion qual of play issue I guess. Your last man retired in '73, and I'm not voting for the 1870s/80s guys.

on sunny's ballot but not mine (in rough chronological order):
cjones williamson browning ... joss .. doyle .. cravath rizzuto ehoward newcombe fhoward
mine but not his:
vanhaltren mcgraw chance monroe bresnahan bjohnson walters . tiant . stieb . randolph
   70. Rob_Wood Posted: June 14, 2007 at 02:32 PM (#2403729)
2000 ballot from this career voter (low replacement level):

1. Nolan Ryan - very high career value; I value strikeouts
2. George Van Haltren - deserving star of the underrepresented 1890s
3. Graig Nettles - super fielder; I am surprised by his lack of support
4. Bob Johnson - solid hitter, solid career (w/minor lg credit)
5. Willie Randolph - very good fielder and solid hitter
6. Bobby Bonds - good combo of peak and career
7. Tony Perez - good career though he was barely an adequate 3B defensively
8. Bob Elliott - good 3B mired with woeful Pirates and Braves
9. Tommy Bridges - luv the strikeouts & win pct, with minor league and wwii credit
10. Rusty Staub - good peak + good career (similar to Perez)
11. Charley Jones - great player, with lockout credit
12. Reggie Smith - boost from center field play and japan
13. Chuck Klein - very good peak and career (even after adjusting for park)
14. Rabbit Maranville - better career than most realize (with credit for 1918)
15. Hack Wilson - ultimate peak candidate, but his career is not too shabby
----------
16-20 Pie Traynor, Bus Clarkson, Jack Clark, Luis Aparicio, Tommy Leach

Not voting for Fingers (around 50th), Redding (around 50th), Walters (around 100th), Browning (around 100th), and Stieb (around 75th). Gossage is around 40th.
   71. DL from MN Posted: June 14, 2007 at 04:04 PM (#2403813)
Rob, where's Goose? I'm assuming he's not overlooked and is placed somewhere between 21 and Fingers. I'm also curious about Tanana - he seems to have the best low replacement value case among modern pitchers not named Nolan Ryan.
   72. DL from MN Posted: June 14, 2007 at 04:06 PM (#2403816)
I should rephrase - I'm curious about whether you have Tanana higher or lower than Goose.
   73. DanG Posted: June 14, 2007 at 04:22 PM (#2403833)
That 19th Century should be a committee empowered to elect, like the recent Cmte on African American Baseball, and to consider more than ten seasons of official major league baseball (ie, from 1876).

Adapted from this article at the HOF website about the Negro leagues committee. What if:

More Research Unearthed
The National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum was awarded a $250,000 grant from Major League Baseball to initiate a comprehensive study on the history of American Baseball, from 1750 to 1900. The funds will allow the Museum to expand the scope and depth of its historical collection on Baseball and American culture. It marks the second time in Museum history that an academic research study has been sponsored.
"The Hall of Fame Library has the most complete Baseball archive in the world," said Major League Baseball Commissioner Bud Selig. "Just like all great research facilities, the quest for greater knowledge is ongoing. The Hall of Fame's collections on the history of American Baseball is unsurpassed, but there is a lot about this subject that is not known - information that needs to be professionally researched and documented. What's learned over the next few years will greatly expand our knowledge about baseball history."
In February 2008, the Board will select "The Nineteenth Century Researchers/Authors Group" research team, to be led by Paul Wendt of the Society for American Baseball Research, to conduct the comprehensive study. The historian will lead a diverse group of more than 50 other authors, researchers and historians in this academic study.
"The documentary record of our National Pastime is incomplete, and this endeavor will go a long way toward filling those gaps," said Hall of Fame President Dale Petroskey. "This is an extremely important research project, allowing us to further our mission as an educational institution, and we could not be happier with the selection of Paul Wendt to lead the team."
The team plans to work tirelessly over four years to create an unparalleled resource. The research will result in a comprehensive, objective and properly documented historical narrative of nearly 800 pages on the history of baseball between the years 1750 and 1900; a compilation of biographical essays on members of the greater community who participated in, or contributed to, this baseball experience; and a comprehensive bibliography of resources and a comprehensive resource guide to these sources.
The research also will result in a statistical database, which will include more than 3,000 day-by-day records, league leaders and all-time leaders. The research will be culled from box scores from 128 newspapers of sanctioned league games played from 1858-1900. When the research is completed, the study will include sanctioned league game box scores from almost 100% of games played in the 1800s. The end result will be the most comprehensive compilation of statistics on nineteenth century baseball that has ever been accumulated.
From the research, a major work on nineteenth century baseball will be published by National Geographic, in association with, the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum. Titled SHADES OF GRAY: The Story of American Baseball, the book will document the story of baseball from colonial days when it was played mainly by children to the first organized games of the early-19th century to the glory days of the national pastime in the 1890s. This comprehensive, 432-page work, illustrated with more than 50 vintage photographs, will detail the game's rich cultural history and profiles the players, owners and fans.
New Voting Committee Established
As a result of the study, the Hall of Fame's Board of Directors approved holding a series of special elections of 19th century professional and pre-professional candidates to the Hall of Fame beginning in 2012.
"The record of the early American contribution to our National Pastime is largely missing up to now," said Hall of Fame Chairman Jane Forbes Clark. "When extensive research and a statistical analysis are complete, the Board feels it will be the right time for early professionals and pre-professional individuals with regards to Hall of Fame election. The guidelines adopted will allow for any worthy candidates to have a chance at election in 2012."
   74. Paul Wendt Posted: June 14, 2007 at 04:28 PM (#2403843)
Rob Wood
4. Bob Johnson - solid hitter, solid career (w/minor lg credit)

It's a minority view, I know, or he would have been elected decades ago.
How many minor league seasons do you credit, Rob?


TomH on MarcS
mine but not his:
vanhaltren mcgraw chance monroe bresnahan bjohnson walters
[and three moderns]

pre-WWII or pre-integration, Tom's list is longer! It is remarkable that two voters fill half the ballot with pre-integration players (Marc 7, Tom 8), generally recognizing high-performers without long mlb careers, and they share only one, Dick Redding. It's also remarkable how many of them --pre-integration high-performers without impressive mlb quantity-- are around, alive and kicking with at least one supporter. Rob Wood alone adds Elliott, Bridges, Klein, and Wilson.

That is 16 from three voters with 2/3 agreement for Redding and Johnson only. (Johnson reached 8000pa but I count him because his case includes a late start with maybe extra credit).

If someone comes along and votes for ten old-timers who do have conventional Cooperstown mlb quantity (say Welch, Ryan, Duffy, Van Haltren, Leach, Quinn, Maranville, Bancroft, Grimes, Traynor), that person will share only GVH and Maranville with Marc, Tom, or Rob.
   75. Paul Wendt Posted: June 14, 2007 at 04:45 PM (#2403862)
While I was goofing around this noon, Dan Greenia passed on big news from Cooperstown
Thanks, Dan

We will need detail researchers. The pay is not great but the list of benefits is so long that this margin is too small to contain it. Contact Gary A. for an insider's perspective. Or simply visit agatetype and imagine, next decade you too may have a personal baseball research website. Gary A. on the web (1929 ANL)
;-)
   76. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: June 14, 2007 at 06:55 PM (#2403977)
I have a very busy summer so this is going to be a short ballot.

1996 ballot

Ryan, Gossage, and Bresnahan make my PHOM this year with Doyle, GVH, and Shocker on deck

1. Nolan Ryan (4, PHOM) – There are many different types of overrated players, those that are in the HOF and don’t’ belong, those that are considered decent but were actually pretty bad, etc. I think that Nolan Ryan, however, would be my starting pitcher on the all overrated but still belongs in the HOF/HOM.

2. Goose Gossage (x, PHOM) – 2nd best reliever that we have had so far. Very nice 5-6 year peak and he pitched a ton of innings as a reliever, both in-season and throughout his career

3. Dick Redding (5, PHOM) – 2nd best NeL pitcher of the dead ball era after Smokey Joe Williams and that ain’t bad. I like his peak as much as Mendez’ and he had more career. Seems to be our best backlog pitcher.

4. Hugh Duffy (6, PHOM) – Best of the 1890’s CF trio based on his superior peak. I agree with WS that Duffy deserves some credit for his team over performing not only their pythag but also their RS and RA projections. That said, I still think WS overrates Duffy’s peak for other reasons.

5. Bucky Walters (7, PHOM) – Very good pitcher with a nice peak. He was baseball’s best pitcher in 1939 and 1940, could hit a little too. I am looking over how his defense may have artificially raised his IP numbers, but I am still pretty sure that I like him more than my next few pitchers.

6. Dave Stieb (8, PHOM) – Essentially tied with Walters. Bucky is ahead on his two year peak, but I could see it go either way.

7. Elston Howard (9, PHOM) – The more I look at him the more he looks like Quincey Trouppe. Both were good hitting catchers with nice peaks who played decent portions of their careers at other positions. However, I prefer Quincey’s time at 3B to Elston’s time in the OF and Quincey played more baseball while Elston sat behind Yogi Berra.

8. Pete Browning (10, PHOM) – Quite possibly the best hitter on the board right now. However, concerns about the quality of the 1880’s AA keep him below Keller and Kiner for me. Our recent discussion on Charley Jones has made me realize that Browning has many of the same problems Jones does and so he falls a few spots.

9. Gavvy Cravath (11, PHOM) – Finally coming around on him. Great peak in the Majors and he definitely deserves MiL credit.

10. Dizzy Dean (12, PHOM) – High peak pitcher who I view as Koufax Lite. His peak wasn’t quite as good, he had a little less career, and he wasn’t even has bad of a hitter. Still ballot worthy, however.

11. Rollie Fingers (13, PHOM) – Not 100% sure what to do with him. Out of the relievers we have seen thus far I would have to agree that he is second to Wilhelm. Out of the relievers that we can look at I only prefer Wilhelm and Gossage. If he isn’t elected this year, I could seem him moving wildly as we look at more relievers. Leaps over Oms this week.

12. Alejandro Oms (14, PHOM) – I see him as similar to, but slightly better than, George Van Haltren. I also prefere Oms to HOMer Willard Brown. He had a low peak but it was a long one that accrued value in the Billy Williams/Al Kaline mold.

13. Vic Willis (15, PHOM) – First time on my ballot. He made a jump into my top 25 about 30 or 40 years ago and now I have finally decided to vote for him. He has a great DERA and he was a horse for some very good pitching staff

14. Roger Bresnahan (16, PHOM) – Just like Peaches and Herb, Roger and my ballot are “Re-United and it feels So GOOD!” Best MLB catcher between 1900 and 1920. Very nice peak, even after I adjust for his time in CF. Makes my PHOM after a long wait just off ballot!

15. Larry Doyle (17) – First vote for him ever! Doyle started in my 20, fell down into the 30’s, and now has climbed back up. He and Fox have suffered opposite fates recently as I have decided that I would rather have the bopper over the fielder in this case. However, there are concerns with both his defense and the status of turn of the century 2B.

Required Disclosures

Willie Randolph -- Around #30. I am not too sure how he is better than Phil Rizzuto. Not enough peak for a guy like me.

Newbies

Only Morris and Hough come close to my top 60, though neither would be in my top 85 if I counted down that far. Morris is overrated, but admisttedly very good, while Hough doesn't have the peak that I look for.
   77. jimd Posted: June 14, 2007 at 08:51 PM (#2404089)
In February 2008, the Board will select "The Nineteenth Century Researchers/Authors Group" research team, to be led by Paul Wendt of the Society for American Baseball Research, to conduct the comprehensive study. The historian will lead a diverse group of more than 50 other authors, researchers and historians in this academic study.

Congratulations to Paul.

(Hand-clapping, foot-stomping, whistles, and general cacaphony ensue.)

As a result of the study, the Hall of Fame's Board of Directors approved holding a series of special elections of 19th century professional and pre-professional candidates to the Hall of Fame beginning in 2012.

(The speaker's voice is drowned out by the overwhelming roar of approval.)

We're confident you'll do a thorough and magnificent job.
   78. jimd Posted: June 14, 2007 at 09:14 PM (#2404116)
What if:

Too bad. ;-(
   79. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: June 14, 2007 at 09:39 PM (#2404151)
Congratulations to Paul.


Huzzah!

We're confident you'll do a thorough and magnificent job.


Duh! :-)
   80. sunnyday2 Posted: June 15, 2007 at 02:10 AM (#2404660)
Hey Paul,

Very cool! One of the best things the HoF has done in a while.
   81. yest Posted: June 15, 2007 at 06:43 PM (#2405086)
2000 ballot
Yount , Goose and Morris make my PHOM this year


1. Nolan Ryan so overrated he now underrated (made my personal HoM in 1999)
2. Pie Traynor most 3B putouts 7 times (made my personal HoM in 1942)
3. Chuck Klein 4 hr titles 1 triple crown (made my personal HoM in 1951)
4. Tony Oliva most hits 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1983)
5. Mickey Welch please see his thread (made my personal HoM all the way back in 1898)
6. Sam Rice imagine if he would have started earlier (made my personal HoM in 1940)
7. Pete Browning 13th in career batting avg. (made my personal HoM in 1906)
8. Hack Wilson 4 hr titles RBI season record (made my personal HoM in 1940)
9. Hugh Duffy had 100 runs or RBIs every full year he played (made my personal HoM in 1908)
10. Addie Joss 2nd in era (made my personal HoM in 1918)
11. George Kell very good hitter and fielder at important and under elected position (made my personal HoM in 1963)
12. Bill Madlock 4 batting tittles (made my personal HoM in 1994)
13. Al Oliver 1 batting title (made my personal HoM in 1991)
14. Jim Rice hit 300 7 times (made my personal HoM in 1995)
15. Rollie Fingers best HoF speech ever (made my personal HoM in 1991)
16. Goose Gossage I find these 2 almost equal (makes my personal HoM this year)
17. Harvey Kuenn led AL shortstops in putouts twice assists once (made my personal HoM in 1972)
18. Heinie Manush 330 batting avg. (made my personal HoM in 1957)
19. Hilton Smith see his thread (made my personal HoM in 1964)
20. Ray Schalk the best catcher ever (made my personal HoM in 1938)
21. George Van Haltren 31st in runs (made my personal HoM in 1925)
22. Jimmy Ryan 30th in runs (made my personal HoM in 1926)
23. Luis Aparicio being a better offensive player then Rabbit puts him here (made my personal HoM in 1979)
24. Jake Daubert 29th in triples (made my personal HoM in 1930)
25. Bobby Veach most doubles twice (made my personal HoM in 1931)
26. Bill Mazeroski 2nd greatest (fielding) 2nd baseman (McPhee‘s 1) ever (made my personal HoM in 1985)
27. Roy Thomas most times on base 6 times (made my personal HoM in 1985)
28. Dave Parker would be higher with out his extra credit (made my personal HoM in 1997)
29. Gavvy Cravath most active HRs 1918, 1919 and 1920 (made my personal HoM in 1928)
30. Lou Brock like the steals more then most (made my personal HoM in 1985)
31. Kiki Cuyler 2299 hits (made my personal HoM in 1967)
32. Lloyd Waner had the most OF putouts 4 times, finished 2nd once and finished 3rd twice (made my personal HoM in 1967)
33. Ginger Beaumont 1902 batting title (made my personal HoM in 1932)
34. John McGraw 3rd in on base percentage (made my personal HoM in 1930)
35. Steve Garvey 200 hits 6 times (made my personal HoM in 1994)
36. Jim Bottomley 2313 hits (made my personal HoM in 1968)
37. Levi Meyerle best rate season ever (made my personal HoM in 1975)
38. Eddie Yost most walks 6 times most times on base 3 times (made my personal HoM in 1987)
39. Rabbit Maranville best shortstop before Ozzie moves down do to reading accounts on how his drinking hurt his team more then the numbers show(made my personal HoM in 1939)
40. George J. Burns most walks 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1932)
41. Orlando Cepada 297 batting avg 379 HRs (made my personal HoM in 1987)
42. Stuffy McInnis led in fielding% 6 times (made my personal HoM in 1987)
43. Deacon Phillippe best walks/9 IP in the 20th centaury (made my personal HoM in 1988)
44. Babe Adams led in WHIP 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1992)
45. Jack Morris in short (because unfortunately I don‘t have time to post an extensive search on the subject) looking over retrosheet I found his ERA to be inflated somewhat by a few bad performances that overstate his ERA to win expectation leading many to believe his win record was inflated by his teammates more then I think is true though I found his teamates did prevent him from getting the loss what appears to be more then normal
for example in 1984 he went 19-11 with a 3.60 era though he only had 2 wins where he gave up more then 4 ER
there a basically few games in which rose his ERA to heights above his expected win level give him the loss but each of these games effects his era more then 1 game should.
on 6-2-1984 in 6.0 IP he gave up 5 runs 5 being ER raising his era from 1.88 to 2.20 getting the loss
on 6-12-1984 in 3.0 IP he gave up 6 runs 6 being ER raising his era from 2.11 to 2.51 getting the loss
on 6-29-1984 in 5.2 IP he gave up 5 runs 5 being ER raising his era from 2.39 to 2.63 getting the loss
on 7- 3-1984 in 4.1 IP he gave up 8 runs 8 being ER raising his era from 2.63 to 3.08 getting the loss
on 7- 18-1984 in 4.0 IP he gave up 7 runs 7 being ER raising his era from 2.99 to 3.34 getting the loss
on 8- 7-1984 in 1.1 IP he gave up 9 runs 8 being ER raising his era from 3.08 to 3.34 getting the loss
on 8-16-1984 in 3.2 IP he gave up 7 runs 7 being ER raising his era from 3.57 to 3.84with a no decision (give him the loss here but don’t take away the wins he did get from him)
(makes my personal HoM this year)
46. Buddy Myer 1935 batting title (made my personal HoM in 1996)
47. Cecil Cooper most rbi twice (made my personal HoM in 1997)
48. George H. Burns most hits twice gets PCL credit (made my personal HoM in 1998)


explanation for players not on my ballot
Dick Redding barring new evidence not one will make my ballot (the HoF vote has absolutely no bearing on my vote )
Charley Jones no black list points
Willie Randolph needs more peak could possibly make my pHoM one day but it would probably be in (real) years time
Tony Perez needs more of a peak to meet with his career
Bucky Walters would have been in my pHoM with out WWII adjustments as he is he’s still close to it
Roger Bresnahan played to much outfield
Bob Johnson with out WWII adjustments is borderline with them he’s quite a bit lower
   82. jimd Posted: June 15, 2007 at 11:11 PM (#2405259)
Ballot for 2000

Read previous ballots if you want more depth on my reasons for all but the latest eligibles.

I am a peak/prime/career voter. Prime tends to dominate the ballot as Career has had an easier time of it in HOM elections, and short Peaks don't get too far in my system.

I am reexamining my ballot carefully as we go deep into the backlog.

1) N. RYAN -- Overrated and underrated. Here, just rated. Prime 1972-81, 1987-91. Best player in 1977 by WARP, candidate in 1972. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1973; WARP adds 1974, 1977, 1981. Other star seasons include 1972, 1976, 1979, 1987, 1989, 1991. Honorable mention in 1990.

2) D. STIEB -- The lack of support here is surprising to me. Best pitcher of the early 1980's. Prime 1980-85. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1982, 1983, 1984, 1985; WARP adds 1981. Other star seasons include 1980, 1988, and 1989.

3) B. WALTERS -- Best of the backlog. Prime 1939-44. Best player in 1939; candidate in 1940 by WS. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1939, 1941, 1944; WS adds 1940. Other star seasons include 1936 and 1942.

4) F. TANANA -- More good seasons than Gossage. Poster-child for pitcher abuse. Still has the peak and also has the career. Prime 1974-77. Best player candidate in 1976 and 1977 by WARP. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1976; WARP adds 1975, 1977. Other star seasons include 1974, 1984. Honorable mention in 1987.

5) G. GOSSAGE -- Always room for another Goose. Prime 1975-83. Best player candidate in 1977 by WARP. 1st-team MLB All-Star (RP) in 1975; WARP adds 1977 and 1978. Other star seasons include 1982 and 1983. Honorable mention in 1981.

6) K. SINGLETON -- Better peak than Bonds; not quite as much prime as Wynn. Prime 1973-81. Best player candidate 1977, WS adds 1979. 1st-team MLB All-Star (RF) in 1975 and 1977. Other star seasons include 1973, 1978, 1979, 1980, 1981; also 1976 in LF.

7) D. CONCEPCION -- His best 7 seasons are very close to Ozzie's best 7, though Ozzie is clearly superior in peak, shoulder seasons, and career value. Prime 1974-82. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SS) in 1974; WARP adds 1976 and 1979; WS adds 1978 and 1981. Other star seasons include 1982. HM in 1975 and 1977.

8) J. KAAT -- Belongs. 14 HOM "bats" were born 1893-1903 (Sisler, Heilmann, Ruth, Torriente, Charleston, Terry, Goslin, Suttles, Stearnes, Averill, Simmons, Waner, Bell, Gehrig); don't tell me that 10 pitchers born 1938-48 are too many.Prime 1961-1975. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1962; WS adds 1966. Other star seasons include 1974 and 1975. HM in 1961, 1964, 1967, 1971.

9) L. TIANT -- Pitching candidate very close to the in/out line. Win Shares does not like him. Tended to alternate good years (even) and off years (odd). Prime 1966-1978. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1968, 1974; WS adds 1976. Other star seasons include 1972 and 1973. Honorable Mention in 1966 and 1978.

10) F. JONES -- Still an all-star player when he walked away. I still think he rates ahead of Ashburn, but it's close. Prime 1900-08. 1st-team MLB All-Star (CF) in 1908; WARP adds 1902 and 1907. Other star seasons include 1900, 1901, 1903, 1904, 1905, 1906.

11) F. DUNLAP -- Great two-way player; bypassed for some reason. Amibidextrous, too. Reportedly could catch and throw equally well with either hand. Useful in this era before modern fielding gloves forced a player to choose one hand for each. Prime 1880-86. Best Player candidate 1880-81 (WARP). 1st-team MLB All-Star (2B) in 1880, 1881; WARP adds 1882, 1883, and 1885. 1884 in the UA is hard to evaluate but may also be #1. Other star seasons include 1886. May be eligible for MiL credit pre-1880.

12) B. BONDS -- Very nice prime; marginal on career. Those who go to extreme either way will miss him. Prime 1969-77. Best player candidate 1970 by WS. 1st-team MLB All-Star (RF) in 1970; WARP adds 1971 and 1973. Other star seasons include 1969, 1972, 1974, 1975, 1977, 1978. HM in 1979.

13) W. RANDOLPH -- No peak. Long low prime with a good career. Prime 1976-80, 1984-89. 1st team MLB All-Star (2b) by WS in 1980. Other star seasons include 1976, 1978, 1979, 1985, 1987, 1989. HM in 1977, 1982, 1986.

14) D. DEAN -- High peak candidate. Prime 1932-36. Candidate for best player in MLB baseball, 1934. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) 1934, 1935, 1936; WARP adds 1932. Other star seasons include 1933.

15) D. REDDING -- Long career candidate. On after more backlog re-evaluation.

16) R. CEY -- Important component of the late 70's Dodgers. Prime 1973-1981. 1st-team MLB All-Star (3B) in 1978 by WARP. Other star seasons include 1974, 1975, 1976, 1979, 1980, and 1981. HM in 1973 and 1977.

17) T. PEREZ -- Better 3B than expected. Important component of the Reds prior to the arrival of Joe Morgan. Prime 1967-1975. Best player candidate 1970 by Win Shares. 1st-team MLB All-Star (3B) in 1970; WS adds 1973 at 1B. Other star seasons include 1967, 1968, 1969, 1971 (3B), and 1972 at 1B. HM in 1974, 1975, 1977 (1B).

18) D. BANCROFT -- Boost due to DanR's replacement level work. Prime 1916-22. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SS) 1920 and 1921; WS adds 1922. Other star seasons include 1916, 1917, 1918, 1925, 1926.

19) B. MAZEROSKI -- Prime 1957-66. 1st-team MLB All-Star (2B) 1960 and 1964; WARP adds 1958. Other star seasons include 1962, 1963, 1966. HM in 1957, 1961, 1965.

20) F. VIOLA -- Better than I thought. Tiant-lite, more peak, less career. Prime 1984-93. Best player candidate by WARP in 1988. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) 1987 and 1988; WS adds 1984. Other star seasons include 1989, 1990, and 1992.

Just missing the cut are:
21-23) Pie Traynor, Rabbat Maranville, Thurman Munson,
24-26) Elston Howard, Rollie Fingers, Dizzy Trout,
27-29) Jim McCormick, Bobby Veach, Dick Redding,
30-33) Norm Cash, Jim Whitney, Ron Guidry, Vida Blue,
34-36) Graig Nettles, Roger Bresnahan, Urban Shocker,
37-40) Dale Murphy, Charley Jones, Bob Johnson, Hugh Duffy,

I trust that those who say, in their defense of Pete Browning, that there is a point of diminishing returns when it comes to discounting players in weak leagues, are giving Fred Dunlap the benefit of the same doubt when it comes to 1884.

My system does not do relievers well. If I ranked Goose without any adjustments, he would just miss my ballot. This didn't feel right. Unlike catchers, I don't have a good way to estimate the size of the adjustment needed to calibrate this position relative to the others. So I just placed him where he seemed to fit.
   83. jimd Posted: June 15, 2007 at 11:19 PM (#2405278)
Note:
27-29) Jim McCormick, Bobby Veach, Dick Redding,
should be
27-29) Jim McCormick, Bobby Veach, Jack Morris,
   84. ronw Posted: June 15, 2007 at 11:34 PM (#2405324)
DanG stop your Internet rumors. You're confusing people.

What if:

Paul and Paris Hilton shared a jail cell?
Paul was named Grand Poobah of the United States?
Paul wrote a post on Primer without a single citation to another source or previous post?
Paul joined three of his friends to form a music group, they named themselves after some insects, and got to tour the world over while their fame rose to an unfathomable height?
   85. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: June 15, 2007 at 11:38 PM (#2405331)
To all of you true believers out there: Excelsior!

'Nuff said.
   86. Paul Wendt Posted: June 16, 2007 at 12:36 AM (#2405484)
Will you still need me, Will you still feed me, When I'm sixty-four?

--
2) D. STIEB -- The lack of support here is surprising to me. Best pitcher of the early 1980's. Prime 1980-85.

Best pitcher in his prime, but he needs the mid-1980s to pass Steve Carlton.

1980-84
Carlton 1300+ innings 162-150-119-115-101 (career W-L record at high-water mark 313-207)
_Stieb_ 1250+ innings 117-124-138-142-145

By workload Stieb finally passed Carlton when Steve dipped in 1984. The designated hitter presumably made Dave's innings more onerous. Anyway that he was close qualifies him as a workhorse.

1980-84
<u>league rank</u> innings; complete games
Carlton 1-2-1-1-7 ; 2-2-1-7-NR
_Stieb NR-5-1-2-1 ; 7-6-1-3-6

In 1985 Stieb ranked third in innings and out of the top ten in complete games, finishing with five top ten rankings in each.
Tom Henke arrived in 1985 and became the clear closer in 1986. Evidently the Blue Jays adopted the role a few years before the bulk of the AL and that may be the explanation for Stieb's decline in complete games (and innings, slightly) while still improving by rate.

1983-86
<u>complete games</u> number; league rank
Toronto 42-34-18-16 ; 2-6-12-12
   87. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: June 16, 2007 at 01:53 PM (#2405987)
Tom Henke arrived in 1985 and became the clear closer in 1986.

By which I suspect Paul means closer in the mdoern sense of lower innings, even higher effectiveness, as opposed to the transition model betweeen Fingers and Eck.

If true that Cox was an early adopter, then I suppose we shouldn't be surprised. He's been able to assemble high quality bullpens out of mothing for years, and with the Jays he had some somethings to work with.

But to check this, here's the 1986 saves leaders in MLB with their inings.

Saves
Righetti-NYY 46 106.7
Worrell-STL 36 103.7
Reardon-MON 35 89
Aase-BAL 34 81.7
Smith-HOU 33 56
Smith-CHC 31 90.3
Bedrosian-PHI 29 90.3
Franco-CIN 29 101
Henke-TOR 27 91.3
Garber-ATL 24 78
Hernandez-DET 24 88.7

However, it's worth noting that Mark Eicchorn had 10 saves for TOR, and he pitched 157 innings. Cox essentially ran a two-man bullpen as did Lou Pinilla in NY. Just a cursory look suggests that maybe most pens were two-to-three mean operations (how unlike today's pens where the innings seem so diluted).

Anyway, Henke looks like he's right around average here. It's Dave Smith and Gene Garber who look like true closers. But that's a bit misleading because Tanner spread his saves around to Dedmon (7 in 99 inn) and Assenmacher (10 in 68 inn) too (plus one for Ed Olwine!). Lanier did the same with Kerfeld (7 in 94), Lopez (7 in 78), and DiPino (3 in 40) all chipping in (plus one for that nutty Larry Andersen). So maybe those two 'closers' were just part of a less ace-centric pen or were hurt a little during the year and so ceeded a few save opps.

This example suggests Cox might have not been in the vanguard in terms of reducing closer workload away from the 90-100 inning threshold, though one year in 1986 isn't likely enough to make a determination. In fact, if anything, it suggests he was maybe appreciating the role of setup man prior to its emergence. Eicchorn's innings would today belong to two men (or maybe his inings plus Caudill's would be split among two guys plus a lefty-getter), but the practice of the set-up(s) outinninging the closer is not at all unusual today.
   88. Howie Menckel Posted: June 16, 2007 at 02:08 PM (#2405991)
2000 ballot - our 103rd

I had last year's electees Brett-Yount-Fisk at 1-3-2 on my ballot. An unusually high number of my old-time favorites have been elected, so modern candidates will do fairly well on my ballot in some years.

The annual fine print: Overall, I think there is too much emphasis on WARP3 and WS, which are intriguing tools but which are not yet sufficiently mature.
So my preference for ERA+ and OPS+ helps, I think, as a reality check. Increasingly, I've had to adjust for PAs/IP per season, not really an issue in earlier years when nearly all star players played almost every day or pitched a ton of innings.
I tend to be mostly prime-oriented with hitters, prime and career with pitchers. But a huge peak sometimes catches my eye, and a remarkably long hitting career also works for me.

Huh, pitchers go 1-2-3-4 for me. Never happened before.

1. NOLAN RYAN - Aside from Ryan's monster 1981 (in 149 strike-shortened IP), Blyleven out-ERA+s him in years in EACH of the next 16 seasons of 100+ ERA+. Wow, and Blyleven has a double-digit edge 5 times. Blyleven was also MORE durable relative to his era than Ryan, such as 6 top 5 IP finishes to 3 for Ryan, for example. Strikeouts are irrelevant in looking backwards - doesn't matter how you did it, it's what you did. What Ryan did is about what Blyleven did, slightly less in fact. But he's better than Sutton, and pitched SO many helpful innings that he tops the ballot.
2. RICH GOSSAGE - Spectacular 1975-85 prime should not be clouded by a wacky SP experiment or an endless, irrelevant tail of the career. His 1975-77-78 seasons (including 28 Ws) are more valuable than anything Rivera has ever done, arguably. 1981 seemed prime to be another such year if not for strike, and later there were conventionally excellent, lower inning closer seasons. This is not a hard one.
3. ROLLIE FINGERS - I hope Cblau's comment on the discussion thread helps others see what we already see. Yes, a devilish career to evaluate. He has many pluses: nine seasons with 100 relief IP (Rivera has one, when he was a setup man). He won about 100 games in relief not as a vulture, but as a guy pitching when it mattered most. For those dazzled by modern save totals, realize that Fingers was in the top 4 in his league in SVs 11 times (to 8 for Sutter and 7 for Rivera). Sutter pitched more than 107 IP once - Fingers did that 10 consecutive years. But most of all, what wins Fingers this slot is his inherited-runner numbers (and bonus World Series heroics). Fingers' teams just kept winning games he pitched for them - often he'd win himself, and often he'd save the day with runners on. In some way, I think Fingers was SO good in the 'clutch' for so long that he could not have been just getting lucky over and over again. Either way, the results were of immense value.
4. DAVE STIEB - Who knew that Ryan was better than Stieb not by peak or by prime - so that he needed 'career' to win the day? Ryan has more of the durable seasons, and a half-dozen 100-110 ERA+s of an edge on Stieb. Not as massive a gap here as others may perceive. I have Stieb's best 6-7 years right at the Bunning-Pierce level, which is HOM-endorsed both by me and by the electorate. See Stieb's thread for my comments on why he is better than Bridges.
5. PETE BROWNING - Stubbornly holding on. Look at the 1890 PL season. Browning, at age 29, leads the league in adj OPS+ by 13 pts over 32-yr-old HOMer Connor, followed by a 22-yr-old Beckley and HOMers Ewing, Brouthers, Gore, O'Rourke at 6-7-8-9. Ewing is 30, Brouthers is 32, Gore is 33, O'Rourke is 39. Browning by all accounts is 'an old 29' due to his health and alcohol problems. Yet in his chance to play in a HOMer-laden league, he dominates. Yet I am supposed to assume that as a younger player he wouldn't have been able to post big numbers in the NL rather than the AA? Seven OPS+s above 163. 10 seasons as a regular, a good number for the era. This lousy fielder played some 16 pct of his career in the infield. Given the era, how much did he really hurt his team in the field? Not as much as some think; it was a different game then.
6. BOB JOHNSON - I really like this sort of consistency over an endless span, though I'd hgardly say he's a 'must-elect.' Sort of the Joe Gordon of OFs in career shape, or a slightly longer and flatter version of Kiner. I am concerned by 1944 being his highest OPS+; seems like he took advantage of the weak competition, so I discount that a bit. But has more than a decade's worth of excellent hitting, for a prime that I like better than Van Haltren's or almost any other holdover's.
7. CANNONBALL DICK REDDING - A longtime favorite who has climbed his way back onto my ballot in recent years. I liked him as an all-around candidate, but the HOF research suggests he's more of a peak guy. Those types don't always fare well with me, but with the weakening ballot, to be fair I think he belongs here.
8. BOB ELLIOTT - Bob helps me from being TOO far ahead of the consensus pack, lol. If you haven't examined him in a while - or ever - get to it!! Six seasons of at least 134 OPS+, ALL of them as a 3B. Wish he'd played all 3B and not much OF, but c'est le vie - Sewell seemed to get treated as a full SS by some. Beats out HOMer Boyer (see Boyer thread for details) and compares remarkably well with HOMer Santo as a hitter (see Santo thread for more details). Better than HOMer Hack as well, and better than HOMer DaEvans (see DaEvans thread).
9. ROGER BRESNAHAN - Back on the ballot two years ago after a long drought. Was discarded long ago when I liked many careers better; a fresh look against this pack is enlightening. C and CF combo is fascinating; seems like he was an outstanding all-around player. Just wish he had one more big year, but I can say that about most of the ballot.
10. WILLIE RANDOLPH - I like Willie a little more than Nellie Fox. Remarkably had NINE seasons with a 100 to 107 OPS+, which combined with slick 2B fielding is quite a valuable player. Also cleared 120 OPS+ three times, which is outstanding with this fielding/position. Not sure he's a HOMer, but will likely find a home on this ballot annually.
11. DAVE BANCROFT - Not sure if I ever voted for him before 2 years ago. But look at the prime: fantastic fielder at SS, with OPS+s of 120-19-19-09-09-09-04. Won a fresh 3-way evaluation vs Fox and Concepcion a year ago. Similar to Randolph, but an SS, so maybe Bancroft gets the nod next time.
12. ORLANDO CEPEDA - Suddenly popped up on my ballot 3 years ago with the reevaluation. Had been losing out to Perez with positional consideration, but closer look shows a sterling top-4 and top-10 offensive line. DH opportunity added nothing to his case.
13. REGGIE SMITH - Climbs back on the ballot after winning a reeval this year vs. Jack Clark. Played a lot of CF, and quietly was one of the better OFs of his era. And yes, it's darn close.
14. VIC WILLIS - Won a recent SP bakeoff with Grimes and Walters, with slightly more career than Walters and better peak than Grimes. But boy it's close!
15. GRAIG NETTLES - First time on my ballot, could move up. Very good fielder with nine seasons of 100 to 115 OPS+ as a regular, and outstanding from 1976-78.


JUST MISSED
JACK CLARK - Slips a bit on reconsideration of his durability problems.
FRANK HOWARD - I had forgotten how spectacular his peak was, and his career tally - 142 OPS+ in nearly 8000 PA. Yes, he suffers due to defense - he could make a case for ranking No. 1 if he could field! Best-3 seasons - 177-70-70 in 1968-70, with almost 2100 PA total - make these other guys look like banjo hitters.
BURLEIGH GRIMES - Compare to Ruffing, Rixey, Wynn and other such HOM pitchers - ok, Sutton, too. I dismissed him as short of Rixey and Ruffing, and he was. But he's just one 130 ERA+ year short of climbing a little higher on this ballot. Better peak than Tommy John, and a lot more durable relative to his era.
DAVE CONCEPCION - Peak is as good or better than Fox's; not quite as consistent, but a slick fielder and a very useful offensive weapon many times. Not fully buying the "other teams were stupid enough to play ciphers at the position" argument; that helped the Reds win pennants, but Concepcion can't get full credit for that stupidity. Similar case to Bancroft, whose prime I preferred this year to Concepcion's length.
LUIS TIANT - Looks like he has the peak at first glance, but notice that the IP just aren't quite there. Plenty good when he did pitch, but with that lack of innings you have to be even more dominant. Maybe he winds up as the era's last P electee, but probably not.
RON CEY - In the past I have had him over Nettles and Bell and nearly on the ballot, but that's because I may like his fielding better than most. Closest of the trio to Bando in hitting. Talk me into voting for him.

AMONG THE TOP 10 RETURNEES, BUT I'M NOT VOTING FOR THEM
BUCKY WALTERS - Two best seasons were not war-related, so that helps me buy into the idea that he'd have had two more really good ones regardless. Really about a 130-140 ERA+ season or two short of my usual standard, but the pool is getting pretty thin. Seems to be grabbing away the "last pitcher" slot from MWelch on occasion. No full penalty for the great defense, but it's an issue.
HUGH DUFFY - Perhaps Win Shares' most embarrassing error. The Roger Maris of the turn of the century - wait, Roger had TWO great seasons and was a good fielder, too.
CHARLEY JONES - Some sympathy for the contract issues, but it's just not the same as going to war or being the 'wrong' skin color. Therefore, I see his career as too short.

NEWBIES
JACK MORRIS - On the surface, a little worse than Burleigh Grimes. But Morris may turn out ot be one of the best of his era, whereas Grimes really wasn't. Morris may make my ballot in a couple of years as his peers turn up.
FRANK VIOLA/BOB WELCH - Both a little better than I expected; Viola is probably a borderline ballot man for some. Welch a poor man's version, not so much. Hough a peakless poorer version.
   89. dan b Posted: June 17, 2007 at 02:33 AM (#2406745)
1. Ryan
2. Dean PHoM 1976. 1975 reevaluation of great pitching peaks put him on my ballot for the first time. NHBA #25.
3. Gossage 2nd best RP to date
4. Walters PHoM 1968. Nice peak.
5. Duffy PHoM 1912. I’ve been looking at how players on the ballot compare with the median level of already enshrined HoMers using WS. Duffy would be in the top half using 5 consecutive seasons, 10 consecutive seasons and 8 best seasons.
6. Bando PHoM 1994. NHBA #11 (Boyer #12)
7. Howard, E PHoM 1995. NHBA #15
8. Rizzuto PHoM 1995. 1993 reevaluation moved him up. Another player deserving more WWII credit. NHBA #16.
9. Bresnahan PHoM 1928. SABR Dead ball era committee has him #1. No MLB catchers between Ewing and Hartnett is not being fair to all eras.
10. Cooper, W PHoM 1942. Returns to my ballot in 1995 after 44-year hiatus. His peak was during a thinly recognized period. Willis may have been better, but his era is more strongly represented.
11. Burns, G. PHoM 1996. Came close to making PHoM during the 1929-1932 trough. Probably should have, better late than never. His 10-consective year peak is above the HoM median as is his 3-year non-consecutive.
12. Leach PHoM 1926.
13. Singleton PHoM 1997. Not many players on ballot with 3-32+ and 6-27+ WS seasons. How much better would the HoM be than the HOF if the worst player in our hall were Ken Singleton?
14. Mays, C PHoM 1997. His era could use another pitcher. A quality pitcher we are overlooking. NHBA #38.
15. Cravath PHoM 1967. mle credit where credit is due.
16. Newcombe PHoM 1998. Giving more war and mle credit (1993). NHBA #46.
17. Willis, V PHoM 1941.
18. Browning PHoM 1912.
19. Parker Do the first base line Dave. NHBA #14.
20. Howard, F I’ll take Hondo’s peak over Bobby Bonds. I can’t bring myself to PHoMing him.
21. Stieb
22. Berger
23. Rosen If Moore, why not Rosen? If a great 5 consecutive season peak were the only measure we considered, Rosen would have been elected in 1964.
24. Bonds, Bo Barry’s dad was pretty good.
25. Munson NHBA #14
26. Murphy
27. Staub
28. Evans, Dw I know he is a HoMer, just holding his place for the PHoM.
29. Perez
30. Cepeda
31. Tiant
32. Cash, N
33. Doyle PHoM 1930.
34. Chance, F PHoM 1921.
35. Jones, C – I have voted for him (4) times – 1898 thru 1901. When I dropped him in ’02, he received only 2 votes. Ed Williamson was on 18 ballots; Arlie Latham drew more support with 3 votes. My 1898 ballot comment – “9. Jones. Two-year hold out probably costs him a couple places”. Nobody was giving credit for not playing back then, as we hadn’t tackled issues like war and mil credit yet. If as many voters had treated his hold out years like he was an all-star back then as are doing so now, he may have been elected by 1920. His 1988 top-10 finish pushed me to re-evaluate for 1989 and give him holdout credit. A reconstructed PHoM based on if I thought then like I think now, would have put him in my PHoM during the trough years of 1929-32 if not 1921.
36. Grimes
37. Ryan, J
38. Van Haltren Do 3 years of slightly below average pitching really merit Van Haltren this much more support than Jimmy Ryan? Walked 16 in stellar pitching performance 6/27/1887.
39. Redding Fared well in the Cool Papa’s survey, as did Spots Poles.
40. Elliott
41. Brock not enough peak to be higher
42. Pinson
43. Smith, Reg less peak and less career than Brock
44. Sutter I like him better than Fingers.
45. Arlett
46. Traynor
47. Nettles
48. Cicotte Better character and a couple more good years made possible by better character would have made him a HoFer if not a HoMer.
49. Gomez More peak than Tiant.
50. Bell
51. Murcer
52. Evers
53. Randolph Before we elect Willie, take a closer look at Evers.
54. Cey
55. Mazeroski
56. Fingers
57. McGraw Best 3B of the 90’s
58. Colavito
59. J. Rice
   90. Brent Posted: June 17, 2007 at 03:03 AM (#2406752)
2000 Ballot:

Let’s elect some pitchers.

1. Nolan Ryan – Not overwhelmingly qualified, but still ahead of the backlog. Over 12 seasons (1972-74, 76-77, 79, 81-82, 87, 89-91) he averaged 16-13, 2.4 wins above team, 248 IP, 280 SO, 128 BB, 127 DERA+. (PHoM 2000)

2. Goose Gossage – I have him ranked as # 1 career reliever to date. (PHoM 2000)

3. Ken Singleton – 8 seasons with OPS+>130 and PA>600 (adjusting to 162 game schedule). (PHoM 1991)

4. Phil Rizzuto – Excellent defense; above average hitter at his position; key contributor to many pennants. (PHoM 1967)

5. Carlos Morán – Please check out the analysis on the Carlos Morán thread. (PHoM 1998)

6. Hugh Duffy – 7 seasons with OPS+>120 while playing 97% of his team’s games, contributing to five pennants, and ranking as one of the top defensive outfielders in baseball. (PHoM 1931)

7. Alejandro Oms – From 1921-29, his MLE OPS+ was 138; a good defensive center fielder. (PHoM 1967)

8. Bobby Bonds – 10 seasons with OPS+>115, PA>600, SB>25, and R>90. (PHoM 1987)

9. Dave Stieb – Over 9 seasons (1980-85, 88-90) he averaged 15-10, 2.6 wins above team, 239 IP, 126 DERA+. (PHoM 2000)

10. Bucky Walters – Over 7 seasons (1936, 39-42, 44-45) he averaged 18-13, 2.0 wins above team, 270 IP, 123 DERA+, 72 OPS+. MVP for 1939. (PHoM 1958)

11. Dizzy Dean – Over 6 seasons (1932-37) he averaged 22-13, 3.6 wins above team, 288 IP, 129 DERA+, 182 SO, 67 BB. (PHoM 1958)

12. Mickey Welch – Over 7 seasons (1880, 84-85, 87-90) he averaged 30-17, 4.3 wins above team, 437 IP, 117 DERA+, 74 OPS+. (PHoM 1966)

13. Gavy Cravath – Among the pure hitters, he has the strongest credentials. Six MLB or MLE seasons with OPS+ >= 150 and PA>550. In his prime, he was a better hitter than Browning and—with appropriate credit for his performance in Los Angeles and Minneapolis—had significantly more career value. (PHoM 1976)

14. Bill Monroe – Could move higher. See analysis on Bill Monroe thread.

15. Dick Redding – Because his peak came before the organization of formal Negro leagues in the 1920s, there is some uncertainty about his credentials. Nevertheless, the evidence suggests a pitcher with a long career and several seasons of dominance. (PHoM 1976)

Near misses:

16–20. Grimes (PHoM 1940), Bando (PHoM 1987), Castillo, Pérez (PHoM 1994), Bresnahan (PHoM 1997)
21–25. E Howard (PHoM 1977), Van Haltren (PHoM 1997), Parker, Newcombe, Leach (PHoM 1932)

Other consensus top 10:

Willie Randolph – Obviously a very fine player, but I don’t understand the level of his support for the HoM.

Rollie Fingers – I see him as part of a cluster of fine relievers who don’t quite rise to my ballot cutoff.

Pete Browning – I like peak candidates, but part of my concept of peak is guys who play. Browning played 90% of his team’s games in only 3 seasons, 80% in 7 seasons. Compare with Cravath (a similar, albeit slightly better hitter) who (counting 1906-20) played 90% of his team’s games 7 times and 80% of the games 12 times.

Other new arrivals:

Jack Morris – Pitched maybe my favorite WS game ever, but he doesn’t make my top 100.

Charlie Hough – If the Dodgers hadn’t jerked him around for so many years, maybe he’d be a serious candidate now.
   91. DanG Posted: June 17, 2007 at 03:09 AM (#2406755)
DanG stop your Internet rumors. You're confusing people.

Please, just one more:

This just in: Paul is dead. I am the walrus, goo goo g'joob.

And he's bigger than Jesus!
   92. yest Posted: June 17, 2007 at 03:54 AM (#2406767)
94. Goose Easton at 11:55 PM (#2407821)

5) G. GOSSAGE -- Always room for another Goose

THANKS FOR THE VOTE
   93. Rob_Wood Posted: June 17, 2007 at 05:29 AM (#2406801)
To quickly answer a couple of questions on my ballot above. First, I have Gossage around 40th on my ballot, a little ahead of Frank Tanana who is about 50th. Slotting relief pitchers is very tricky and I have them much lower than the consensus. Also, as I am sure every voter has personally experienced, backlog players and those just off-ballot are very tightly bunched these days. So the difference between 10th, say, and 40th is not large at all.

Second, I think Bob Johnson merits around one good major league season of credit for his minor league performance (his thread discusses the pros and cons of minor league credit). Again, because players are so tightly bunched, this small amount of minor league credit is enough to land Indian Bob squarely on the top half of my current backlogged ballot.
   94. sunnyday2 Posted: June 17, 2007 at 11:13 AM (#2406833)
People might consider whether Phil Rizzuto deserves an MLE year for staying down in the MiL a year after his breakout (and winning AA PoY honors to boot). The circumstances are virtually identical to Charlie Keller's.
   95. Al Peterson Posted: June 17, 2007 at 02:36 PM (#2406905)
Sorry, short on time so no insight added (if ever from my stuff).

2000 ballot. Anybody call for a dominant reliever? Methodology: The system used for my ranking entails a little bit of everything including WS, WARP, OPS+/ERA+, positional adjustments, even some contemporary opinion. Once that is assembled I try and make other changes to metrics when deemed fit. My hope by adding in all this material is to get the most complete picture, a composite worthy player. The results of this work tend to favor prime/peak players over career types but that is not 100% tried and true.

1. Nolan Ryan (4). 16 times among his leagues top 3 in Hits Allowed per 9 innings. 19 times among top 3 in strikeouts per 9 innings. Really dominant, ay?

2. Dick Redding (5). Career was long – decent peak along the way. Outstanding fastball in his day according to James/Neyer book. So he didn’t get into the Hall of Fame; maybe the information collected by HOF committee wasn’t pertinent to Redding’s prime years. He deserves some WWI credit, thus patching up a bald spot in his prime years as 1918 and 1919 were affected.

3. Rich Gossage (-). 2nd best reliever compared to Wilhelm I think that gets you in the party.

4. Norm Cash (6). Interesting debate with the Perez/Cepeda/Cash comparison. There appears to be fielding value on his end than the others at 1B.

5. Tommy Leach (7). Combination hot corner/centerfielder could field a little, hit a little. Second all-time in inside-the-park home runs to Wahoo Sam Crawford. Someone else stated he was uniquely valuable in his particular era and I agree he meant more in the particular era he performed in.

6. Bobby Bonds (8). Even with the constant trades, drinking problem and whatnot his combination of speed/power made him a very valuable player. He wasn’t the next Mays, or as good as his son. Five tools on display.

7. Reggie Smith (9). The other Reggie wasn’t half bad. Played some CF before moving down the defensive spectrum, hitting along the way. Not real durable but lots of value when in the lineup. Should we add in the year in Japan at the end of his career? I don’t currently.

8. Roger Bresnahan (10). Work was good behind the plate, also shagged some flies some years. This was in centerfield so he must have been somewhat athletic out there. Fills a short gap during the turn of the century where we have lacked a backstop.

9. Tony Mullane (11). Old time pitcher who threw plenty well, a good hitter to boot. Had some playing time issues since he missed seasons due to being blacklisted. He’s amongst the best of his era when accounting for the time outside of baseball due to conflicts with different leagues. Goes on the all-Nickname team as well.

10. Bob Johnson (12). His peak might not be as high as others but at the same time for 13 years in the majors he has the highest floor of anyone. By floor I mean what can we reasonably expect from him in terms of performance. During those 13 years you knew exactly what you got with Bob Johnson – nothing less, rarely more. I guess my system rewards consistency as well as greatness. WARP numbers like him, WS not so much. Over his career his teams underperformed Pythag W-L by 15 games so he loses some Win Shares there.

I’m afraid he’s between the two voting factions. He doesn’t have the peak but was effective longer that the high peak, short career players. He doesn’t have the career but was at a higher production level than the low peak, long career players. Either way, he stacks up nicely compared to the other LFs hanging around.

Indian Bob got a late start (one deserving of 1-2 years of MiL credit), played on bad teams in ballparks that favored pitchers, and got left out of post-war ML baseball while he was still doing well at age 39. 10 years of top 10 performances in OPS+, 106.6 WARP1 for 13 years with no padding on the front or back end.

I guess they were right. While others shot to stardom, collected an MVP, and faded from sight, along rolled Bob Johnson, punching the time clock with excellence far from the spotlight. Forgotten while playing, lost in history. Somewhere Joe Medwick laughs at the fact he got in while his contemporary remains in limbo.

11. Mickey Welch (13). Another one of those annoying 300 game winners. Was it due to luck, run support, bad opponents? Still a feat to accomplish, sometimes I need to remind myself that and not totally overlook Smilin’ Mickey.

12. Alejandro Oms (15). The body of work included Negro and Latin American play. Another career lost in translation since the Cuban time can be tricky to compute.

13. Bucky Walters (16). Short time NL prime starter who has the numbers downgraded a little by the defensive support which was above normal standards. Still high quality and heck this is the backlog.

14. Willie Randolph (14). The last thing I think we need is another Yankee voted in but you try to put team affiliation out of this. Hence he grabs a ballot spot. Nice long career for a 2nd basemen, someone who did many things well without ever doing that one thing at an other-worldly level. I have him much better than where Fox was – he added to a nice defense better onbase skills and decent speed on the bases.

15. Carl Mays (17). Ray Chapman would disapprove of this location. Effective with the arm and the bat, much to like.

16-20: Bell, Poles, Fingers, C Jones, Clarkson
21-25: Rizzuto, Shocker, Browning, Byrd, Willis
26-30: Stieb, Nettles, Perez, Easter, Bancroft
31-35: Tiant, Munson, Ryan, Ben Taylor, Luque
36-40: Brock, J Clark, Grimes, Duffy, Cicotte
41-45: Cey, Tenace, Bridges, T John, Cedeno
46-50: Sutter, F Jones, Elliott, Traynor, Lundy

Top 10 Returnees: Stieb (#26), Browning (#23), Charley Jones (#19), Fingers (#18), Duffy (#39). Stieb I see as the best of a bunch that are borderline from the 80s on the pitching end. Browning has always hung around the bottom of the ballot, sometimes getting a vote from me. Charley Jones gets some of that blacklisted credit, just not enough. Fingers is the best reliever available but not so valuable as long term starters. Duffy’s great 1894 sticks out but the rest of the body doesn’t quite push him high enough.

New guys: Morris, Hough, Viola, Welch, they all make HoVG appearances but aren't well rounded enough to ballot.
   96. favre Posted: June 17, 2007 at 07:27 PM (#2407160)
I consider myself a prime voter, using a combination of OPS+/PA, ERA+/IP, and WS on a season-by-season basis. I also give weight to underrepresented eras and positions.

1. Charley Jones
2. Nolan Ryan
3. Vic Willis

There is a group of sluggers in the backlog who have roughly the same resume: about 300 career WS (with credits and adjustments); a career OPS+ 150 or thereabouts, with a high somewhere in the 170s; eight or nine prime years (with various war/minor league credits); not a lot of defensive value. This group includes Gavvy Cravath, Frank Howard, Pete Browning (with AA adjustments), Mike Tiernan; Sam Thompson and Charlie Keller, already in the HoM, also fits in this group. All these guys have an argument for induction, but I think Jones is a cut above. He also had a high peak, but a longer prime (with blacklisted credit) and better defense than the other players in this group except maybe Keller. Although I don’t give credit for any seasons before 1875, I do suspect that his late arrival in organized baseball was due to geographical factors.

Ryan and Willis are very close in my system: Ryan’s IP is a little more impressive compared to his contemporaries, so he takes the second spot. Vic Willis pitched 4000 IP with an ERA+ of 118 (and seasons of 167, 155, and 154). That’s comparable to Faber (4086/119) and Lyons (4161/118), and a whole lot better than Ruffing (4344/109).

4. Dave Stieb
5. Rich Gossage
6. Dale Murphy

Stieb and Murphy are the kind of players that tend to I like. Stieb has six seasons higher than a 130 ERA+; the Murph had six seasons around 150 OPS+ while playing CF. Gets a B- grade from WS for his defense, but it also gives him two Gold Gloves, and his contemporaries also thought he was good with the leather. I have Gossage slightly lower than most, as I’m still unsure how to gauge the value of relievers compared to other players. There’s no doubt he belongs, however.

7. Roger Bresnahan
8. Bus Clarkson

With Trouppe elected, Bresnahan is clearly the best catcher out there (and I like him better than Trouppe) . We have a twenty year gap at catcher from 1891-1911. I understand the arguments against filling slots, but in this case I tend to think we have underestimated how difficult the position was at the turn of the 20th Century. Bresnahan was in the top six in OPB seven times from 1903-1914; he did equally well in another five seasons, but didn’t have the PA’s to qualify for the title. That’s a darned impressive run for a catcher.

I’m using Dr. C’s original MLE’s for Clarkson rather than the upgrades, but even those show that Clarkson was the best third basemen of the early 1940s, and arguably the best shortstop.

9. Tommy Leach
10. Gavvy Cravath

Cravath averaged a 161 OPS+ from ages 32-36, and the data from the minor leagues suggests that was not a fluke. Tommy Leach, an old favourite of mine, has 324 career WS, played great defence at two key positions, and could hit a little.

11. Ken Singleton
12. Larry Doyle

We don’t have a lot of 1970s OFr’s: only Stargell, Yaz, Reggie, Wynn, and Dewey so far (and Dewey wasn’t all that good during the 70s). Singleton’s nine appearances in the OBP-top ten gets him a ballot spot. Larry Doyle has been in my top twenty-five or so for decades; there’s just not a lot of second basemen out there with a career 126 OPS+.

13. Bucky Walters
14. Rollie Fingers
15. Tony Perez

While I recognize that Walters’ 1939-’42 peak was helped by outstanding defenses behind him, he also pitched well during and immediately after the war, when his outstanding defences were either in the service or growing old. Drops a bit as I re-evaluate pitchers.

I’m an ERA+/Win Shares guy. Fingers does not look good using either system, and I have long resisted putting Fingers on my ballot. But the article that Cblau cites in the Gossage discussion thread finally has me convinced he belongs. Perez has the long prime that I tend to favour.

16. Bob Elliott
17. Willie Randolph
18. Frank Howard
19. Wally Schang
20. Rusty Staub

Not in my top fifteen:

Willie Randolph Was on my ballot two years ago, and will be back soon, if he’s not elected first.

Pete Browning Brent/Daryn’s AA projections show he wasn’t a historic hitter, and he also had some playing time issues. Basically confirms what I’ve believed for a while: excellent hitter, mediocre defence, injury problems, same resume’ as a number of other OFers.

Dick Redding. Has been compared to Orel Hershiser. Seems apt: had a couple of big years which gives him an argument, but not quite enough for induction.
   97. Willie Mays Hayes Posted: June 17, 2007 at 11:22 PM (#2407323)
2000 Ballot

1. Nolan Ryan - So overrated he's almost underrated now. Sure he walked a lot of guys, but he struck out so many more.
2. Goose Gossage - Best reliever between Wilhelm and Mo. Tremendous peak.
3. Pete Browning - I'm convinced he was the 1880's Dick Allen. He belongs.
4. Hugh Duffy - I like Browning better after looking closer, but his glove makes him elite.
5. Dave Stieb - My system likes him. Good peak, maybe the best of eligible pitchers from the 20 century. He is also criminally underrated.
6. Bucky Walters - How did I miss him for so long? Underrated by the electorate. Very similar to Stieb.
7. Thurman Munson - I'm sold that he was very similar to Freehan.
8. Willie Randolph - Above average with the bat, very good glove. WARP loves him.
9. Buddy Bell - He's very close to Darrell Evans in my system, just a bit better than Nettles.
10. Graig Nettles - WARP likes him, and so do I. A poor man's Brooks Robinson.
11. Alejandro Oms - I was missing a lot on him for a while. Nice player. Moves down after re-examining DH-era hitters.
12. Rusty Staub - A mix of peak/prime career. I like him better than Beckley, but not near as much as Duffy/Browning.
13. Jack Clark - I think he's the best of the no-defense sluggers left.
14. Dale Murphy - Reasonable peak, more defensive value than Clark.
15. Norm Cash - Poor man's Keith Hernandez.

Required Disclosures:

Fingers is not near my ballot - I don't think we need any relievers until Gossage.
Redding is 32, I used to vote for him, until I reviewed the evidence again - the 20's doesnt look like A HOMer to me.

Morris is down near Catfish Hunter in the 40's.
No one else is close.
   98. Thane of Bagarth Posted: June 18, 2007 at 01:58 AM (#2407568)
2000 Ballot
My ranking system heavily weights 5 year peaks, but additional career value can add up, too. I rely primarily on the uberstats, with about a 60/40 split between WARP and WS. I’m rather liberal with war and minor league credit. I use a catcher bonus of up to 10% based on the proportion of a player’s career spent behind the plate.

I think all of the WARP #s I’m using were up to date as of the beginning of December. I have already run the numbers for all “serious” eligibles (i.e. >200 career Win Shares) through the 2006 election.

1) Nolan Ryan
He may not be as great as his reputation, but the career value this guy piled up is hard to argue against.

2) Tony Perez
Perez is not terribly dissimilar from Staub—they’re almost identical by Win Shares. His peak according to WARP is substantially better than Staub’s (46.6 to 40.5) and he’s got more career value to boot (109.5 to 102.7), so Tony gets the edge.

3) Rusty Staub
By Win Shares he looks like a solid HoMer: 358 career, 145 top-5 consecutive. By WARP he’s a bit more marginal: 40.5 top 5 WARP3 isn’t super (albeit better than Beckley), but 102.7 career is respectable.

4) Frank Tanana
His WARP totals are very good (111 WARP3 career, 47 top 5 seasons), but Win Shares has him as run of the mill. I lean a little more towards WARP in my rankings so Tanana is in the top half of the ballot this year.

5) Willie Randolph
He put up very good career value (310+ WS, 115+ WARP3), especially for 2nd baseman, but his 5-year peak is nothing special (42 WARP3, 114 WS). Definitely deserving of induction, eventually, if not this year.

6) Bucky Walters
A very good pitcher…I’m not convinced that he needs to be docked for the superb Reds defense more than the DTs already do.

7) Ben Taylor
The lack of data from his prime years makes all of this highly speculative, but I’m ranking him as if he was Keith Hernandez with a little less peak and more career (career totals of around 105 WARP3 and 320 Win Shares; with top 5s of 46 and 135, respectively).

8) Bob Johnson
100 WARP3, 287 WS for career plus Minor League credit makes him a legit HoM candidate.

9) Dick Redding
2nd best NeL pitcher of the deaball era, I’m hoping we’ll give him his due eventually.

10) Bobby Bonds
Similar in career value to Indian Bob (93 WARP3, 302 WS). 149 WS in top five consecutive seasons is impressive, though not unprecedented.

11) Graig Nettles
Although his peak numbers are a little lower than Bonds & Singleton, career totals are a little better…Nettles ends up somewhere in the middle.

12) George Van Haltren
GVH seems to be an obvious HoMer if you just look at Win Shares (344 career, 133 top 5 consecutive—before season length adjustments); however, WARP (especially WARP3) is not nearly as favorable: 86.5 career, 36.4 top 5.

13) Ken Singleton
Similar overall career and peak value to Bonds. Both have 302 WS, just over 90 WARP3; top 5s of about 150 WS, 46(BB)/48(KS) WARP3

14) Dale Murphy
Over half of his career value comes from an impressive 5-year peak. Razor thin margin separates him from Singleton.

15) Luis Tiant
By WARP alone (98.2 career, 45.3 top 5 WARP3), I’d have him higher than Walters, but Win Shares is not as generous (256 career, 108 top 5 consec.).

The Rest of the Top 50
16) Bill Monroe
17) Jimmy Ryan—As I am sure has been hashed and re-hashed dozens of times previously in the history of the Hall of Merit, Ryan appears to be GVH part II (or part I).
18) Gavy Cravath—A heavy dose of MiL credit gives him the career bulk, which, when added to his peak, makes him a ballot contender.
19) Dizzy Trout
20) Tommy John
21) Buddy Bell
22) Charley Jones—Always close to the ballot, if not on it. I give him credit for 2 blackball/blacklist/whatever years.
23) Sam Rice
24) Tommy Leach
25) Bus Clarkson
26) Rabbit Maranville
27) Norm Cash
28) Jim Kaat
29) Dave Parker
30) Reggie Smith
31) Goose Gossage—Way ahead of Fingers and not far behind Wilhelm to rank as the #2 reliever.
32) Jack Clark
33) Buzz Arlett
34) Burleigh Grimes
35) Jack Quinn
36) Bob Elliot
37) Jose Cruz
38) Harry Hooper
39) Dave Concepcion
40) Ron Cey
41) Vada Pinson
42) Phil Rizzuto
43) Alejandro Oms
44) Hugh Duffy—His uberstat numbers don’t convince me it’s a mistake to rank him here, though he isn’t terribly far behind some of the OFs at the bottom of my ballot.
45) Rick Reuschel
46) Orlando Cepeda
47) Cesar Cedeno
48) Dick Lundy
49) Jim Rice
50) Lou Brock

62) Dave Steib—I don’t see a huge difference between him and a lot of other backlog pitchers.

74) Charlie Hough
100+) Jack Morris, Frank Viola

Returning Consensus Top 10 Not in My Top 100:
Rollie Fingers—I may be underrating relievers as a whole, but I modified my rankings to help closers/firemen when I originally had Wilhelm well below most other voters. Those adjustments help Rollie, but currently I can’t see adjusting them more to bring him closer to my ballot. Goose Gossage fares a lot better but still doesn’t crack the top 15.
Pete Browning— He takes a real beating in the WARP1-3 conversions. I have voted for him in the past, but right now I’ve got him falling farther and farther behind the real ballot contenders.
   99. OCF Posted: June 18, 2007 at 03:19 AM (#2407739)
Flip.
   100. OCF Posted: June 18, 2007 at 03:20 AM (#2407740)
A question for prime voter favre who has some 80's guys on his ballot: What do Viola and Morris look like to you?
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