Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Hall of Merit > Discussion
Hall of Merit
— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best

Monday, June 11, 2007

2000 Ballot

Prominent new candidates: Rich Gossage, Charlie Hough, Jack Morris, Kent Hrbek, Willie Wilson, Frank Viola, Bob Welch, Kevin McReynolds, Jeff Reardon and Rick Sutcliffe.

Top-ten returnees: Nolan Ryan, Willie Randolph, Rollie Fingers, Cannonball Dick Redding, Bucky Walters, Pete Browning and Dave Stieb.

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: June 11, 2007 at 01:07 PM | 158 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Related News:

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

Page 2 of 2 pages  < 1 2
   101. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: June 18, 2007 at 04:36 AM (#2407782)
People might consider whether Phil Rizzuto deserves an MLE year for staying down in the MiL a year after his breakout (and winning AA PoY honors to boot). The circumstances are virtually identical to Charlie Keller's.

I don't know if Rizzuto's breakout in AA was of the same level as Keller's. Has anyone run an MLE for him? OTOH, he has an even stronger case for being called up, as Keller's extra time in the minors didn't make any difference for a dominant Yankee team. Sticking with Frank Crosetti in 1940 cost the Yankees a pennant.
   102. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: June 18, 2007 at 11:15 AM (#2407836)
32 ballots tallied so far. Still missing ballots from: Jim Sp, Jeff M, Eric C, Mike Webber, Don F, David Foss, mulder and scully, Trevor P., Chris Cobb, Andrew M, Ken Fischer, Devin McCullen, Esteban Rivera, Patrick W, Tiboreau, Max Parkinson, KJOK, the Commish, rico varian, Tom D, Michael Bass, Dan Rosenhck, and 'zop.

Carl Goetz didn't vote in the last five elections, so he has been removed from the list.

Since the third spot for induction will be extremely close, no ballots will be allowed after 8 PM EDT. Results will be posted at 10.
   103. Ken Fischer Posted: June 18, 2007 at 12:37 PM (#2407863)
2000 Ballot

I’m in South Asia teaching a workshop with a couple of my university colleagues. I only have a dial-up connection. Sorry this is short.

1-Nolan Ryan 334 WS

2-Dick Redding
He is ranked by many as one of the top pitchers of the pre-Negro League days.

3-George Van Haltren 344 WS
His numbers deserve the high ranking. I know…I’m a Van diehard…GVH and Stephens. I just can’t drop them down. They belong.

4-Mickey Welch 354 WS
300+ wins are great in any era.

5-Carl Mays 256 WS
256 win shares in an offense dominated era is impressive.

6-Craig Nettles 321 WS
Great plays on the big stage. His low career batting average keeps him out of the other hall. He probably stayed around 3 years too long.

7-Rich Gossage

8-Willie Randolph 312 WS
Pee Wee Reese is his comp. The Pirates should’ve kept him.

9-Vern Stephens 265 WS
His comps are Doerr & Lazzeri but I believe he was better. A forerunner of the modern power hitting shortstop.

10-Wally Schang 245 WS
He played for several flag winners. Schang had great plate discipline. At the age of 39 he led the AL in HBP.

11-Rollie Fingers 188 WS

12-Bob Johnson 287 WS
A raw deal…Indian Bob will forever be hurt by playing for mostly bad teams and the overlapping eras he played in (Live Ball & War Years).

13-Pete Browning 225 WS
A great Players League year shows Pete belongs.

14-Roger Bresnahan

15-Tony Mullane
   104. Mike Webber Posted: June 18, 2007 at 03:30 PM (#2408010)
Using Win Shares, positional balancing, and leaning to careerist. Sorry I missed voting for George last time.

1) NOLAN RYAN
2) RICH GOSSAGE
3) ROGER BRESNAHAN 231 Win Share, one MVP type season, 4 seasons 20+ Win Shares. Best catcher of his era. Like Leach a combo-position player that is hard to sum up what his contributions were, because he doesn’t nest into one position.
4) TOMMY LEACH – 328 Win Shares, only one MVP type season, 8 seasons 20+ Win Shares. Good peak, excellent defensive player at third and in centerfield.
5) PHIL RIZZUTO – 231 Win Shares, one MVP type seasons, 7 seasons 20+ Win Shares. With a conservative 60 or so win shares during the war, I move him ahead of Sewell. Same arguments as Nellie Fox, only with a 3-year hole in his career at ages 25 to 27, plus a bad return to MLB in 1946.
6) George Van Haltren Huge Career, plus short schedule. Even clipping his pitching credit.
7) NORM CASH 315 Win Shares, only one MVP type season, 8 seasons 20+ Win Shares.
8) ALE OMS Based on the info we have I would consider him just above the in/out line for outfielders.
9) SAL BANDO - 283 Win Shares, two MVP type seasons, 9 seasons 20+ Win Shares. I believe he was better than Ken Boyer, but his home parks helped disguise it. The big seasons are what puts him ahead of Boyer.
10) LOU BROCK – 348 Win Shares, three MVP type seasons, 11 straight seasons 20+ Win Shares. As a career voter I’ll put him here. Batting leadoff he had great opportunity to rack up counting stats.
11) WILLIE RANDOLPH 312 Win Shares, one MVP type seasons, 9 seasons 20+ Win Shares. Many of the same qualities of Lou Brock though his lack of power not as big problem at second base.
12) TONY PEREZ 349 Win Shares, three MVP type seasons, 8 seasons 20+ Win Shares. Hits all my targets for a ballot candidate, long career, big seasons, a top 25 player at his position.
13) KEN SINGLETON 302 win shares, 3 mvp type seasons, 7 20+ win share seasons. Big Seasons sneak him onto the bottom of my ballot.
14) CARL MAYS 256 Win Shares, 2 MVP type seasons, 8 20 + Win share seasons
15) Dave Stieb 210 Win Shares, 0 MVP type seasons, 4 20 + Win share seasons.


Disclosures:

Bucky Walters – may be penalizing his WW2 pitching too much. It is a toss up between Stieb and Walters for me.

Cannon Ball Redding – Have waivered on him, I have voted for him in the past.

Pete Browning – Heck of a hitter, short seasons, suspect league, suspect fielding, suspect teammate.

Rollie Fingers – not convinced that there is enough leverage available to make his career and peak values big enough to put him on the ballot. I have been thinking about what the minimum amount of career win shares it would take to make my ballot. Koufax has the fewest of any player I have voted for, 194 and he had 3 MVP type seasons.
   105. DavidFoss Posted: June 18, 2007 at 03:34 PM (#2408014)
Interesting backlog election late in the HOM election cycle. Ryan's overrated, but well over the bar. I'm fond enough of Gossage to put him on my ballot. I think we're jumping the gun on Randolph... too many in season durability issues for my taste. I can't wait to see who gets the 2 & 3 slots tonight.

2000 Ballot

1. Nolan Ryan -- Another poster said Don Sutton with no-hitters (and K's)... not a bad way to describe him. Ryan would be a shoo-in first ballot most years, but that was a tough crowd last year.
2. Gavvy Cravath -- Top-notch corner OF-er of the 1910s. With MLE credit, he is at least on par with guys like Kiner.
3. John McGraw -- Great high-OBP 3B of the 1890s.
4. Larry Doyle -- MVP deadball second baseman. Position player cornerstone of the 1911-13 Giants pennant dynasty. Hit like an OF-er.
5. Dick Redding -- Great fireballer of the 1910s. His weak 1920s NeL numbers should not take away from his fine early play. I don't know why his support hasn't held up.
6. Rich Gossage -- Excellent reliever for a very long time. Best reliever between Wilhelm and Rivera.
7. Norm Cash -- Took another look at him. I'm like him better than Keith Hernandez.
8. Roger Bresnahan -- High OBP C-OF of the 1900s. Playing time and positional classification issues have kept him out of the HOM so far.
9. Rollie Fingers -- Best reliever eligible.
10. Bob Elliott -- Excellent 3B of the 40s and early 1950s.
11. Mickey Welch -- Sure he was overrated, but we've been inducting guys like him from other eras.
12. Frank Chance -- Great hitter for great Cubs teams. Best non-Wagner hitter in the NL for several years.
13. Frank Howard -- Gets a boost from the post-expansion re-eval. This guy could really mash.
14. Charley Jones -- Returns to the ballot in this backlog year. I've been a long-time fan of his
15. Ernie Lombardi -- Catchers who hit this good are hard to find.
16-20. Browning, Rosen, BJohnson, Nettles, Leach,
21-25. Bando, Cepeda, TJohn, Randolph, Cey,
26-30. Tiant, TPerez, Singleton, Brock, Staub,
31-35. Stieb, Walters, DMurphy, Kaat, Parker
   106. Andrew M Posted: June 18, 2007 at 04:42 PM (#2408073)
2000 Ballot

1. Nolan Ryan. Threw a ton of innings and was among the league ERA leaders several times. Not as great as his legend, but very good for a long time and an easy top choice this ballot.
2. Goose Gossage. I’d put him behind Wilhelm, Eckersley, and Rivera, and if we elected only those four to the relief pitcher wing of the HoM, I’d be content.
3. Larry Doyle. Arguably the best offensive player on the best offensive team in the league 1911-1913. Doyle had a career OPS+ of 126, and was consistently in the NL top 10 in HRs and slugging pct. He also won an MVP award and was an 8-time STATS NL all-star. By all accounts played extremely hard and captained the team for several years. Assessments of his fielding vary from not very good to poor.
4. Tommy Bridges. He’s not really a peak or career candidate. He finished his career with just fewer than 3,000 IP and his top ERA+ season is 147. In his favor, he’s probably missing 360 or so innings from 1944 and 45, and he had six seasons in which his ERA+ was between 140 and 147 (and ten seasons in which he was in the top 10 in the AL.) And while he wasn’t much of a workhorse, he did finish in the top 10 in innings five times.
5. Bob Johnson. Career OPS+ 138, 10 times in AL top 10. Comparable to Medwick and Averill in the lower tier of HoM OFs.
6. Tony Perez. Separates himself from the 1B pack by having a pretty good glove at 3B for 5 full seasons. Hung around long enough to accumulate almost 11,000 PAs, but his rate numbers would look better had he retired at age 35.
7. Luis Tiant
8. Dick Redding
Both of these guys were the best pitcher in their league at their peak and had careers of reasonable length. Bucky Walters is another guy in this category, as is Dave Stieb.
9. Dave Bancroft. Great glove, above average hitter, walked a lot. Had some durability issues.
10. Phil Rizzuto. Great glove, probably not as good a hitter as Bancroft. Missing essentially 4 seasons at age 25-28.
11. Vern Stephens. Not as good a glove as the two guys above, but a much better hitter. Declined quickly at age 30, but before that had half a dozen seasons in the top 5 in HRs and total bases. Decent glove. Also did well in MVP voting, which surprised me.
12. Roger Bresnahan. Valuable and versatile player who got on base a ton.
13. George J. Burns. Rarely missed a game, got on base a lot, could field and run, had 3 MVP caliber seasons (1914, 1917, 1919) and averaged close to 27 Win Shares a season for a decade. I’ve never been convinced Roush was the better player.
14. Tommy John. I’m surprised how little support he gets when we’ve been pretty generous to long career pitchers. Too many innings of above-average to good pitching to ignore. Also, by reputation, an excellent fielder.
15. Dave Stieb. See above.

Next 10 (more or less in order)
Bucky Walters
Tommie Leach
Ken Singleton
Sal Bando
Willie Randolph
Alejandro Oms
Orlando Cepeda or Norm Cash
Geo. Van Haltren
Addie Joss
Ernie Lombardi

Required Disclosures:
Bucky Walters. Medium length career, monster peak. He’s a tough one to evaluate as he got a late start, and it’s hard to know how much to discount his performance in 1944-45. For now he’s just off the ballot.
Willie Randolph. Hall of the Very Good.
Rollie Fingers. Likewise.
Pete Browning. Too many questions/doubts.
   107. Esteban Rivera Posted: June 18, 2007 at 04:55 PM (#2408082)
2000 Ballot:

1. Nolan Ryan – With the rest of last year’s class inducted, the Express rolls on in.

2. Goose Gossage – Among the greatest reliever ever.

3. Pete Browning - Was a heck of a hitter and did it under tremendous duress. I buy the "greatness can't take full advantage off lower competition" idea. Proved he could hold his own in the Player's League.

4. Hugh Duffy - His credentials are that he was for a time one of the best players and he produced during the 90's. Was an outstanding defensive outfielder.

5. Charley Jones – Fantastic hitter from the 19th century. Gets some credit for blacklisting from me.

6. Roger Bresnahan - I believe his versatility is a major plus in his case. I can understand not giving him credit if you think his playing time at other positions was worthless but when he was an outfielder he was one of the best ones in the league.

7. Bill Monroe - Seems to be one of the best second basemen of his time.

8. Rollie Fingers – Given some post-season credit. His career taken all together is around the bubble.

9. Tony Perez - See him similar to Beckley in terms of value. His prime/career value is pretty good.

10. Mickey Welch - The 300 game winner. The discussion of the past couple of “years” has made me realize that Welch should be a HOMer. Is not that far behind Keefe.

11. Bob Johnson – Have been overlooking Indian Bob. PCL credit counterbalances any war discounts.

12. Vic Willis –Blame the cohort analysis for making me take another look at Vic.

13. Bob Elliott – The post someone made about holding his outfield time against him was true in my case. Not as much an outfielder as I had previously thought.

14. Burleigh Grimes - Has enough big seasons and career bulk to edge him over other similar candidates.

15. Pie Traynor - I'll agree that he is not as great as the praises make him out to be but he still has a worthy resume.

Not on ballot but made Top 10:

Bucky Walters – Actually not a bad candidate but the breaks don’t go his way (war years, sterling defenses) and are enough to keep him off my ballot.

Dick Redding – Too much uncertainty surrounding him to put him on my ballot.

Willie Randolph – Needs a little more peak to crack the top 15. His placement is still a bit volatile.

Dave Stieb – Not enough innings pitched to make the ballot.
   108. Jim Sp Posted: June 18, 2007 at 05:13 PM (#2408102)
1) Ryan--Legendary long career, 5 years with more than 300 strikeouts.
2) Gossage--just a nose below Ryan
3) Bob Johnson-- WinShares says C fielder, warp thinks he’s considerably better than that. Very high assist totals from LF. Played CF for a terrible 1938 A’s team, also a little bit of 2B and 3B. On the whole I think the record indicates that he was actually a good defensive player. I also suspect that his WinShares suffer from playing on some horrible teams. May have struggled trying to get a break, tough to grab playing time on the great A’s teams earlier in his career. Never did anything but mash despite late ML start at age 27. 1934-1942 is a HoM worth prime in my view. PHoM in 1970.
4) StiebThe dominant pitcher during a tough time to dominate. Lack of support made his dominance hard to see. Great year for example in 1985 (171 ERA+, 265 IP), and went 14-13. 1982-1985 each year was top 3 in both IP and ERA+. 1981-1985 warp3: 8.5, 9.9, 9.1, 9.7, 9.4.
5) RandolphTremendously underrated. Lifetime OBP of .373 plus great defense and longevity looks good to me. Funny how someone could be so good for so long in NY and get so little credit.
6) Rizzuto--The man lost his age 25, 26, and 27 seasons to the war, right after a very good season in 1942. One of the best fielding shortstops of all time. A 93 career OPS+ is strong for a grade A shortstop, not weak. Great peak season in 1950 (11.4 warp3). PHoM 1977.
7) Concepcion--Grade A+ shortstop and could hit some too. Weak hitting at the beginning and end, but above average during prime 1973-1982. Warp3 prime: 10.7, 10.2, 10.2, 9.7, 8.8, 8.7, 8.3, 8.0. Note that Win Shares is conservative in assigning fielding credit to the great fielders. PHoM 1994.
8) Nettles--Great fielder with quite a bit of pop in his bat. Best Warp3: 10.7, 10.2, 8.9, 8.4, 8.2. PHoM 1995.
9) Perez--Interesting, most people like his career, but wait a minute…he was playing third base from 1967-1971…there’s a peak there. PHoM 1997.
10) Charley Jones--A masher whose prime was destroyed by the blacklist.
11) John McGraw--Dominant player when healthy.
12) Stephens-- PHoM in 1961. Looks underrated to me. Best years by Warp3 10.2, 10.1, 8.9, 8.5, 8.0, 7.8. Another player short on career length, but I like the prime.
13) Bobby Bonds--PHoM 1986. 1969 -75, 77 are all very good to MVP candidate seasons. Career 130 OPS+ plus good speed, a good enough fielder to play some CF. Is only lacking longevity.
14) Cey--I’ll take the plunge on Cey. I like Elliott, so indeed Cey shows up on my ballot. Power, walks, and defense at 3rd…wish the Mets didn’t spend 40 years looking for that. He didn’t look like a ballplayer but he was a good one. Best Warp3 10.5, 9.6, 9.2, 9.1, 9.0, 8.9. Interesting that Hack and Groh are in while Elliott and Cey are out, I have them in the same bunch. PHoM 1997.
15) Elliott--PHoM in 1960. The hitting for a 3B in his era is outstanding. Best years by warp3: 10.9, 9.4, 9.2, 8.7, 7.7, 7.3, 7.0. Strong prime trumps an early decline in my view.

Browning—after his great season in the 1890 PL at age 29, not much. Not in my top 100.
Walters #50. Nice peak but not quite enough career.
Redding #19.
Fingers #18.
   109. Paul Wendt Posted: June 18, 2007 at 05:17 PM (#2408106)
5. Dick Redding -- Great fireballer of the 1910s. His weak 1920s NeL numbers should not take away from his fine early play. I don't know why his support hasn't held up.

I think it's inevitable. The league numbers seem solid now.
   110. Chris Cobb Posted: June 18, 2007 at 07:50 PM (#2408233)
2000 Ballot

I’m sorry that I haven’t been able to finish my work on Carlos Moran – the last 10 days have been quite unexpectedly busy. Next time!

Review of my ranking methodology. I base my rankings on three measures: career, total value above average, and peak rate, which I calculate in both WARP1 and WS, adjusting WS in various ways for pre-1930 players. Giving equal weight to each system, I rank players against their immediate contemporaries (grouped by the decade in which they had the most value). I then calculate percentage value above or below the approximate in-out line for that decade (which is set based on number of ML and NeL teams and population factors) and use that percentage to integrate the decade-by-decade rankings. Then I make subjective adjustments. I have recently become concerned at the impact of the very-low-replacement level of both WARP1 and WS on my rankings. I include a rate stat in my system, but I am not confident that it compensates sufficiently for the overvaluing of pure playing time by the comprehensive metrics. I haven’t had time to revamp my system to adjust replacement level yet, but one of my subjective adjustments identifies players who are likely to be overrated somewhat for this reason. I have begun using Dan R’s wins above replacement as a tool for this purpose also. Long-career, strong-defense infielders have benefited from this. I am also working on a comprehensive review of pitcher rankings.

(#) = Last year’s ranking
% = percentage above below approximate in-out line value for the player’s decade.

1. Nolan Ryan (3). % = 1.3375. Comparisons to Don Sutton sell Ryan short, in my view. He has less peak than contemporaries Carlton, Perry, and Niekro, and he was a bit less effective over the long haul than Blyleven, but even though he brings up the rear of this group, he is well ahead of Sutton. His peak in the mid 70s was legit, and he had a number of strong years scattered through the 1980s and early 1990s.
2. Goose Gossage (n/e). % = 1.2336. Given that Fingers was the #2 returnee from my 1999 ballot, this placement for Gossage was pretty obvious. Pretty obviously the #2 reliever so far after Wilhelm: we’ll see how Rivera and Hoffman stack up against him when they’re done.
3. Rollie Fingers (5) % = 1.0419. Fingers shows up comfortably above the in/out line in my system. He was not as lights-out as we have come to expect the modern closer to be, but he was still highly effective, extremely durable, and highly leveraged. The data CBlau recently shared confirm that Fingers’ performance, in the usage pattern that was in place during the 1970s, was as good or better than Gossage’s and Rivera’s in their usage patterns, when measured by outcomes. His compartmental stats aren’t as dominant as theirs are, but it’s clear that he got the job done just as well when games were on the line. Ranks below Gossage on peak considerations, but he’s a deserving HoMer.
4. Dave Bancroft (6). % = 1.0463. If he could have stayed in the lineup more, we’d have elected him long ago, as he was a slightly better ballplayer than Sewell with a longer career. But having few seasons of 145+ games hurts him.
5. Alejandro Oms (7) % = 1.0407. Oms has a long, strong primes without a great peak, like most of the top candidates in my backlog pool, such as Fingers, Bancroft, Randolph, and Leach.
6. Willie Randolph (8). % = 1.0609. Excellent defense, above average offense sparked by his on-base skills, and a long career. The only knock on him is mediocre durability, which kept him from putting up huge seasonal win share/WARP totals. The fact that my ballot is now crowded by infielders of similar durability (significant for career, uneven in season) suggests that this is a hazard of the positions, and one for which the electorate should adjust a bit more than it is doing. He’s similar to both Bancroft and Leach.
7. Tommy Leach (9). % = 1.0381. Outstanding player for a long time. Andrew Siegel’s brief analysis of his case is excellent, and Dan R’s war2 shows that his play in relatively high SD leagues was still very valuable.
8. Tommy John (10). % = 1.0308. He doesn’t have a great peak, but his 12-14 year prime is about as good as any eligible pitcher’s, and he adds another 4-6 good years on top of that. He is the Jake Beckley of pitchers, and he ranks about where Beckley ranked before his recent election.
9. Rabbit Maranville (11) % = 1.1502. An all-time great defensive shortstop who hit enough in his prime to play at a consistent, all-star level. Current leader among eligible players in career WARP1 even without war credit for 1918 (which he also merits), he is the only long-career shortstop between Wagner and Appling. RCAP study indicates that my system overvalues him, but he still has a strong career argument.
10. Buddy Bell (12). % = 1.0349. Better than I realized. Both WARP and WS love his defense, and he’s on the good side of the in-out line by both metrics in my system. Very similar to Nettles, but his defensive excellence appears to have lasted longer. I have ranked him below what his percentile ranking suggests because I am not exactly sure where the in-out line for the 1980s will end up. Right now that in-out line is quite low, but it could rise as I finish evaluating that decade’s candidates.
11. Graig Nettles (13). % = 1.00. Great defender, decent hitter for a long time. Looks identical to Bell in overall merit, and I prefer both to Nellie Fox. It’s fitting that it has worked out so that they are arriving on my ballot together. I might resort to the archaic practice of splitting my #15 vote rather than putting one on the ballot and one off.
12. Bus Clarkson (14). % = 1.00. Lots of discussion of his new MLEs has ended with his value looking about like it did before the revision, in my view. His career profile reminds me a lot of Darrell Evans, with a little more defense a little less offensive peak (though with regression it’s hard to judge peak). Both he and Evans were very good hitters all through their 30s because they really developed their “old player skills” of plate discipline and power in ways that offset their decline in other areas. It’s also the case, of course, that he’s similar to Perez, another power hitter who shifted from 3B to 1B in the course of his career. Perez shifted over at 30, though, while Evans made the shift at around 35, and Clarkson would have shifted over at 35-37. His fielding, then, gives him the edge over Perez.
13. Dave Stieb (15). % = 1.00. I agree with Eric C. that he was the best pitcher in his league for the first half of the 1980s. This is a weak crop of pitchers, but I think it was also a hard time on pitchers. My review of pitchers has set out to make cross-era head-to-head comparisons more feasible by using normalized innings pitched. Without normalization, Stieb’s prime is as good as that of any eligible pitcher. With normalization, he rises to the top.
14. Bobby Bonds (16) % = 1.0184. Similar to Jimmy Wynn, but not as strong a peak.
15. Charley Jones (17). % = 1.00. Back on my ballot after the 1999 star glut has mostly cleared. I give him 2+ years credit for the blacklisting. The only player on the ballot with an argument to have been the best player in baseball at his peak.

1999 Off-Ballot, Sitting on the All-Time in-out Line

16. Burleigh Grimes (18). % = 1.00. Biggest beneficiary of my pitcher review. I found two mathematical errors in my calculations that had knocked him significantly downward. The correction of the errors has him looking very similar, if not superior, to Rixey and Faber. I am moving him up significantly, though I’m not quite ready to put him onto the ballot, and I don’t think he is superior to Stieb or John in any case. Had a strong 14 year prime, in which he was a huge workhorse, but his value before and after his prime was minimal. John’s better career pushes him ahead, and Stieb’s 14-year career is better than Grimes’ 14-year prime.
17. Tony Perez (19). % = 1.0327. Dan R’s replacement-level study drops Perez somewhat in my estimation. I’m grouping him more closely now with Cash and Staub.
18. Norm Cash. (20) % = 1.0098. A dark-horse candidate. Below Bell and Nettles on league-strength considerations.
19. Dale Murphy (21). % = 1.0020. Similar to Bobby Bonds and Charley Jones, relatively short career, high peak outfielders, with very good defense at their best. He’s a bit behind those two because his prime was shorter, and his peak was only a little higher. His peak rate is actually lower than Bonds’. He has excellent seasonal win share totals, but that is partly a factor of durability. Durability is good, but WS too-low replacement levels make durability overrated by many voters.
20. Rusty Staub (22) % = 1.0457. My system argues for a higher placement than I have given Staub, but few players that I have ranked have added more career value in a series of below-average seasons, so I believe my system overrates him. He was legitimately outstanding during his peak in Montreal, however, so he should be in the mix. A career-slice approach suggests that the contemporary “bat” players to whom he is closest in value are Bonds and Norm Cash, so I am ranking him just a little below the two of them. His profile is also a lot like Jimmy Ryan’s, actually, which provides another justification for ranking him about here, just a half dozen spots ahead of the best outfielder from the 1890s still eligible.
   111. Chris Cobb Posted: June 18, 2007 at 07:51 PM (#2408236)
21. Gavvy Cravath (23). % = 1.00. Not as well-rounded as Roush, Oms, Minoso, and Wynn, not as strong on peak as Keller, Kiner, or Jones. But still a tremendous hitter whose value has been overlooked. Slips a little bit as a result of recent discussions, which have made me fairly certain that he does not have a hidden peak in his AA years, but was a pretty similar player then to what he was in Philadelphia. I am therefore having a harder time seeing what makes him better than Bob Johnson.
22. Luis Tiant (24). % = 1.0024. My review of pitchers puts my assessment of him more into line with Joe Dimino’s. Tiant was highly effective, but not especially durable for his time, and not notably more effective than the more durable Stieb. His extended prime was no better than Tommy John’s. I still have him worthy of election, but I’m no longer pushing his candidacy by voting for him.
23. Joe Tinker (25). % = 1.00. Looks like Ozzie Smith, but with only 3/4 of Ozzie’s career.
24. Bob Johnson (26). % = 1.00. Back on my radar
25. Reggie Smith (27) % = .9791. Dan R’s numbers bring him back into my potentially electable group. His case is still much weakened by seasonal durability issues and by a Dw. Evanseque divide between fielding peak and batting peak, but he was an above average player for a long time, and hardly ever had a bad year.
26. Dom Dimaggio (28). % = 1.00. Likewise.
27. Jimmy Ryan (29). % = 1.00. The best of the remaining 1890s outfielders.
28. Herman Long (30). % = 1.0192. His case is of the same sort as Maranville’s, but he was not as brilliant a fielder and had a shorter career, so when Maranville drops to where Long was, Long drops to the all-time in-out line or thereabouts. Dan R’s numbers on Long are not encouraging, so he slips a bit his year.
29. Dick Redding (31). % = 1.00. None of the additional, reliable data provided by Gary A. shows Redding to be pitching at a level that looks worthy of the HoM. None of the years reputed to be his best are part of this additional documentation, but the more data that shows him looking like a pitcher who was a bit above average in the NeL and, therefore, about average in the ML, the more his case is weakened, in my view. I’m not dropping him out of the picture altogether, but I’m putting him, for the moment at the bottom of the borderline-in group of players. It seems probable to me now that, unless the trend in evidence turns, he will drop further. It’s very hard for me right now, for instance, to accept that he was probably better than Urban Shocker and Don Newcombe. My pitching review hasn’t gotten as far as the Negro-League pitchers, but I’m doubtful it will help his case. I hope I will have time to do that review before he is elected. If it doesn’t happen this year, there should be a couple years of breathing room.

------------- Below the Line by no more than 5% ----------------

30. Bill Monroe .9922
31. Don Newcombe .9886
32. Urban Shocker .9867
33. Carlos Moran xxxx. This is a very preliminary placement, pending the completion of my study of him and a further look at Bill Monroe, whose case has also been reopened by new statistical analysis. Moran is in the neighborhood of Tommy Leach, Monroe, and Johnny Evers. I have Leach somewhat ahead (and on ballot) due to better career value, so Moran’s initial placement is halfway between Monroe and Evers. I hope to have him more definitely placed before the next round of balloting for 2001.
34. George Burns .9879
35. Willie Davis .9896
36. Ron Cey .9800
37. Ken Singleton .9780
38. Johnny Evers .9779
39. Fielder Jones .9778
40. Bruce Sutter .9755
41. Ron Guidry .9735. Great peak. I don’t know why the peak pitching voters aren’t giving him any support. I’d take him, on peak, over either Bucky Walters or Lefty Gomez. I’m inclined to move him up, but more study is needed.
42. Lave Cross .9709
43. Hugh Duffy .9686
44. Johnny Pesky .9676
45. Ben Taylor .9667
46. Cy Seymour .9665
47. Rick Reuschel .9657. I still don’t see what Joe sees, but the pitching review is still in progress.
48. Dick Bartell .9653
49. Frank Tanana. .9637
50. Jim Kaat .9631.
51. George Van Haltren .9538
52. Larry Doyle .9614
53. Bobby Veach .9609
54. Buzz Arlett .9602
55. Vada Pinson .9599
56. Dave Parker .9593.
57. Jose Cruz .9587.
58. Jack Clark .9564.
59. Leroy Matlock .9544
60. Tommy Bond .9511

Returning top 10 not on my ballot:

Five of the returning top 10 are not on my ballot. Redding and Walters are not the starting pitchers most deserving of support, nor are Johnson and Cravath the most deserving outfielders, though they would not be bad choices. Browning and Duffy are mistakes. In general, I think the electorate is undervaluing long-career, high-defense infielders who lack the gaudy win share seasonal totals that win the admiration of peak voters. But win shares seriously undervalues these players because (1) its batting replacement level is WAY too low, so players get too much “showing up credit,” which is easier for outfielders to accrue than infielders and (2) its range of fielding values is too compressed, so that excellent fielding is undervalued. This infielder group is most disadvantaged by this mistake, so my ballot is filling up with players of this type, as I wait for a seismic shift in the electorate. More detailed comments on the returning top 10 left off my ballot follow.

Dick Redding. See #29 above.

Bucky Walters. % = .9387. Walters’ prominence in the rankings derives from his peak value. His peak was strong, but outside of his peak he was not much better than an average pitcher. His hitting compensates somewhat, but his last excellent years need a discount for wartime competition. If I were ranking purely on best seven consecutive years, he might make my ballot, but he would still be behind Ron Guidry and Dave Stieb.

Pete Browning. % = .8920. Yes, he was an outstanding hitter, but his eye-popping years were all in the weakest major leagues of all time (excepting the UA), he was not an asset on defense, he was not durable within seasons, and his career was short. He is not near my top 50 eligibles. My system sees him as having a case similar to Frank Howard and Rocky Colavito. They have arguments, but they are nevertheless clearly on the outside looking in. There was a bit of talk about “our biggest mistake” election. The only two choices we have made that I see as clear “mistakes” are Bill Terry and Sam Thompson, with Thompson being the bigger of the two. Browning is distinctly less qualified than Thompson. All three players were overrated, I think, because they have very gaudy batting statistics that aren’t as meritorious as they appear.

Bob Johnson. See #24 above. I’m actually rather pleased to see Johnson in the returning top 10. He was unfairly neglected for many years after he first became eligible, and I was among those who didn’t give him as much support as he merited. I’m not advocating his election, but I don’t see him as a bad choice. If I had a pHOM, which I might get around to creating once we are caught up to the present, I would guess that Johnson would have a good shot at entry during a backlog year between 2007 and 2012.

Hugh Duffy. % = .9686. He looks a lot like Cy Seymour to me, and Cy Seymour isn’t drawing so much HoM support. Ranks 44th at present.

Other New Eligibles Meriting Comment:

Frank Viola % = .9156 . Better than I had realized. I would take him over Jack Morris, which makes him about the #10 pitcher of the 1980s, following Blyleven, Ryan, Gossage, Eckersley, Saberhagen, and Stieb, who should be HoMers in the group, and Lee Smith, who should fall just short, Hershiser, and Guidry. Viola had a near HoM-worthy prime from 1984-1993, but he needed either one or two more great seasons like his 1987, 1988, and 1990 campaigns or two or three more good seasons outside his prime.

Charlie Hough % = .9399. He’s received very little attention in our discussion, but he’s a pretty good career candidate. Much better as a starter than a reliever, although he had a couple of very good years for the Dodgers in the mid-1970s. My system actually rates him higher than both Viola and Morris. I wouldn’t take him over Viola, whose peak was quite near HoM quality, but I would take Hough over Morris as a career candidate.

Jack Morris % = .8796. A good pitcher for a long time, but his W-L record overrates him as much as it does any pitcher in baseball history. He was a durable pitcher who pitched for very good teams, but he didn’t consistently have the quality needed to be a HoMer.

Bob Welch. Not as good as Mickey. He’s a little bit below the line for which I do a full analysis. He was a good pitcher—durable and a bit above average in quality—but he’s not anywhere close to a HoMer.

Kent Hrbek. Below the “work-up” line, but a fine player. I’d take him over Steve Garvey, I think.

Willie Wilson. A very fast man.
   112. rico vanian Posted: June 18, 2007 at 07:58 PM (#2408248)
1) Nolan Ryan – Exhibit A on Power Pitchers. The long career and the ability to continue to dominate games into his 40’s is astounding.
2) Rich Gossage – It would have been really cool if he could have been inducted the same year as George Brett.

There is a major drop-off between #2 and…

3) Chuck Klein –4 hr titles including a triple crown. His age similarity scores from age 25-34 mirror Ruth, DiMaggio and Ted Williams. Even in a bandbox ballpark, that’s not too shabby.
4) Lou Brock- The H.O.M. doesn’t appear to value stolen bases (Aparicio, for example) as highly as I do. 3000 hits is a major qualifier for me as well.
5) Luis Aparicio – nine Gold Glove awards, led the American League in stolen bases nine seasons and was named to the All Star squad 10 times. When he retired in 1973, he held the career record for shortstops for games played, double plays and assists.

6) Burleigh Grimes – 5 20 wins seasons, 270 total wins, very strong on the black and gray ink tables.
7) Pie Trayner –.320 career average, hit .300 or better 10 times
8) Rollie Fingers – The first of the great modern relievers.
9) Ernie Lombardi –2 ba titles, 8 all star games, .300 career average as a catcher.
10) Dale Murphy – A heckuva peek, gets points off for a lousy batting average.
11) Sam Rice –Talk about late bloomers…Virtually no stats before he was 29 and still finished just shy of 3000 hits.
12) Phil Rizzuto – SS on the team with the greatest era ever. 3 prime years lost to WW2 would have put him over 2000 hits and ended the debate.
13) Willie Randolph – Really, really good for a long time (even after he left the Yankees)

14) Jim Rice – Hit for power and average. Career flamed out, but I don’t see why Keller got more votes than him.
15) Gavvy Cravath- The leading power hitter of the immediate pre-Ruth era.

no soup for...
16)Steve Garvey – Underrated due to fidelity / “feet of clay” overtones
17) Hugh Duffy – That .440 year is just plain sick.
18) Mickey Welch – 300 wins in a short career, but never the top pitcher in his era.
19) Dave Parker – Drugs are bad, mmkay?
20) George Foster- I think he is getting shortchanged. A terrific hitter for about 7 years.
21) Addie Joss- Awesome peak
22) Gil Hodges – Great fielder, very good hitter for arguably the NL team of the 50's.
23) Thurman Munson – A good peak, obviously not a long career, although by the time of his death, he was already pretty much finished
24) Catfish Hunter- Peak and clutch
25) Pete Browning – League quality and shortness of career issues.
26) Tony Perez- I could have hit 20 homers and driven in 90 rbi’s a year with Rose, Morgan, Bench, etc surrounding me.
26) Tony Oliva- With good knees, he would’ve been a sure thing HOF’er
27) Jack Morris- Big game pitcher. Nuff said.
28) Tommy John &
29) Jim Kaat - Longevity certainly, Greatness no.
30) Dave Concepcion – I have him below Aparicio and Rizzuto on the SS list.
31) Bruce Sutter – Great peak, but not enough years
32) Ron Guidry – A late start and the Billy Martin/Art Fowler run em till they’re done school of arm management didn’t help. One of my all time favorites.
33) Dave Stieb – It would have been very interesting had he played for a better team to see what his career stats would have been.
34) Vida Blue – What might have been…
35) Bill Madlock – Just hit, baby.
36) Bob Johnson – Much like the Jeffersons, he’s moving on up.
37) Don Baylor &
38) Reggie Smith The Hall of very good beckons
39) Bucky Walters- Nice peak, but not enough.
40) Dick Redding - Another player with anecdotal, but not statistical evidence.
41) Graig Nettles – I grew up a Yankee fan and I remember the big hitting, but not until the Dodger/Yankee World Series was his fielding ever really lauded.
   113. rico vanian Posted: June 18, 2007 at 08:01 PM (#2408252)
1) Nolan Ryan - Exhibit A on Power Pitchers. The long career and the ability to continue to dominate games into his 40's is astounding.
2) Rich Gossage - It would have been really cool if he could have been inducted the same year as George Brett.

There is a major drop-off between #2 and…

3) Chuck Klein -4 hr titles including a triple crown. His age similarity scores from age 25-34 mirror Ruth, DiMaggio and Ted Williams. Even in a bandbox ballpark, that's not too shabby.
4) Lou Brock- The H.O.M. doesn't appear to value stolen bases (Aparicio, for example) as highly as I do. 3000 hits is a major qualifier for me as well.
5) Luis Aparicio -nine Gold Glove awards, led the American League in stolen bases nine seasons and was named to the All Star squad 10 times. When he retired in 1973, he held the career record for shortstops for games played, double plays and assists.
6) Burleigh Grimes -5 20 wins seasons, 270 total wins, very strong on the black and gray ink tables.
7) Pie Trayner -.320 career average, hit .300 or better 10 times
8) Rollie Fingers - The first of the great modern relievers.
9) Ernie Lombardi -2 ba titles, 8 all star games, .300 career average as a catcher.
10) Dale Murphy - A heckuva peek, gets points off for a lousy batting average.
11) Sam Rice -Talk about late bloomers…Virtually no stats before he was 29 and still finished just shy of 3000 hits.
12) Phil Rizzuto - SS on the team with the greatest era ever. 3 prime years lost to WW2 would have put him over 2000 hits and ended the debate.
13) Willie Randolph - Really, really good for a long time (even after he left the Yankees)
14) Jim Rice - Hit for power and average. Career flamed out, but I don't see why Keller got more votes than him.
15) Gavvy Cravath- The leading power hitter of the immediate pre-Ruth era.

no soup for...
16)Steve Garvey - Underrated due to fidelity / "feet of clay" overtones
17) Hugh Duffy - That .440 year is just plain sick.
18) Mickey Welch - 300 wins in a short career, but never the top pitcher in his era.
19) Dave Parker - Drugs are bad, mmkay?
20) George Foster- I think he is getting shortchanged. A terrific hitter for about 7 years.
21) Addie Joss- Awesome peak
22) Gil Hodges - Great fielder, very good hitter for arguably the NL team of the 50's.
23) Thurman Munson - A good peak, obviously not a long career, although by the time of his death, he was already pretty much finished
24) Catfish Hunter- Peak and clutch
25) Pete Browning - League quality and shortness of career issues.
26) Tony Perez- I could have hit 20 homers and driven in 90 rbi's a year with Rose, Morgan, Bench, etc surrounding me.
26) Tony Oliva- With good knees, he would've been a sure thing HOF'er
27) Jack Morris- Big game pitcher. Nuff said.
28) Tommy John &
29) Jim Kaat - Longevity certainly, Greatness no.
30) Dave Concepcion - I have him below Aparicio and Rizzuto on the SS list.
31) Bruce Sutter - Great peak, but not enough years
32) Ron Guidry - A late start and the Billy Martin/Art Fowler run em till they're done school of arm management didn't help. One of my all time favorites.
33) Dave Stieb - It would have been very interesting had he played for a better team to see what his career stats would have been.
34) Vida Blue - What might have been…
35) Bill Madlock - Just hit, baby.
36) Bob Johnson - Much like the Jeffersons, he's moving on up.
37) Don Baylor &
38) Reggie Smith The Hall of very good beckons
39) Bucky Walters- Nice peak, but not enough.
40) Dick Redding - Another player with anecdotal, but not statistical evidence.
41) Graig Nettles - I grew up a Yankee fan and I remember the big hitting, but not until the Dodger/Yankee World Series was his fielding ever really lauded.
   114. favre Posted: June 18, 2007 at 08:14 PM (#2408265)
A question for prime voter favre who has some 80's guys on his ballot: What do Viola and Morris look like to you?

I basically use ERA+/IP (with a couple of adjustments) on a season-to-season to rank pitchers. Morris has the innings, but his career high ERA+ was 133, even though he plyaed for some good defensive teams. That kills him in my system--too many pithcers had better seasons in their primes. Viola, with seasons of 166, 155, 149, and 141 does better in my system, although after that he has only two seasons above 109. Still, I can actually see him making my ballot at some point, particularly given the lack of 1980s pitchers.
   115. Patrick W Posted: June 18, 2007 at 09:31 PM (#2408332)
Since my last three years have been NV, NV and 7:56pm Mon, this is now considered an early submittal for me.

1. Nolan Ryan (1), Cal. (A) – Hou. (N) SP (’68-’93) (1999) – Just better than Bly, I like Brett/Yount better, but this is what the numbers say.
2. Rollie Fingers (6), Oak. (A) – S.D. (N) RP (’70-’84) (1991) – Examining Goose raises my ranking of Rollie.
--. Carlton Fisk</B>, Bost. – Chic. (A) C (’71-’93) (2000)
3. Frank Tanana (5), Cal. – Detr. (A) SP (’73-’93) (2000) – Big Start, Hung on
4. Tony Perez (7), Cinc. (N), 1B / 3B (’65-’86) (1994) – Completely different BA/OB/SG breakdown, but the sum of his offensive and defensive value to a team makes him look like a twin of Willie Keeler to me.
5. Luis Tiant (8), Bost. – Clev. (A) SP (’64-’80) (1988) – Right there with Drysdale, Ford and Marichal. Not a slam dunk, but the ballot’s not strong enough to hold him down.
6. Tommy John (9), Chic.– N.Y. (A) SP (’63-’89) (1997) – If you can maintain average for a quarter century, that’s just a different definition of greatness.
7. Rich Gossage (n/a), N.Y. (A) – S.D. (N) RP (’72-’94) (2000) – Now that the WXRL numbers cover the reliever era (Shantz, Miller, Face and Wilhelm excepting), I need to record that data and somehow translate that into my rankings. Possibly by using the leverage as a multiplier on the overall number, but that’s a lot of work if the career leverage numbers aren’t compiled somewhere.
8. Jim Kaat (10), Minn. (A) SP (’61-’83) (1991) – Kaat would probably be in the Hall today if his ’62-’66-’74-’75 had instead occurred consecutively. His best seasons don’t seem to coincide with Minnesota’s best as a team in the ‘60s either. Value is value in my system, and this is where he deserves to rank.
9. Rusty Staub (11), Hou. – N.Y. (N), RF (’63-’81) (1996) – In my system, I have to take 9400 AB’s of 0.295 EQA over 6400 AB’s at 0.301. Wynn has the bigger peak, but Staub has 5 more seasons to his career.
10. Rick Reuschel (12), Chic. – S.F. (N) SP (’72-’90) (1996) – On the other hand, if Reuschel is going in first ballot, then it probably is a weak ballot. Nearly equals the value of Kaat in 700 fewer innings.
11. Jack Morris (n/a), Detr. (A) SP (’78-’94) – I like my system of discounting the pitchers for their “effort” at the bat, but Morris points out how I need to somehow discount the AL pitchers in the DH era. Morris is nearly equal to Reuschel in my system because of Rick’s lack of prowess at the plate. By eyeball, Jack might drop 2-3 spots because of this issue; he’s still ballot-worthy until I resolve the discrepancy.
12. Graig Nettles (13), N.Y. (A) 3B (’69-’88) (1997) – How can the Hall not find enough 3B to honor?
13. Charlie Hough (n/a), L.A. (N) – Tex. (A) SP (’70-’94) – Charlie, Dutch. Dutch, Charlie.
14. Dutch Leonard (14), Wash. (A) SP (’34-’53) (1972) – Amazing how valuable he was before and after the war, the lost time to injury in ’42 and the apparent effects of recovery in ’43-’44 keep him from the 15-18 votes that all his equals seem to be getting. Penalize one guy for playing too good during the war, penalize another for not playing good enough...
15. Dizzy Trout (15), Detr. (A) SP (’39-’52) (1967) – Bob Lemon was better than Dizzy Trout, but Lemon on the cusp while Trout isn’t even the best Dizzy according to the voters is too steep a drop IMO. It would take a war discount of close to 50% to drop him from my ballot, which is about 35-40% below what the quality drop-off actually was. Don’t penalize the players for being in their prime in ’42-’45.
16. Norm Cash (--), Detr. (A), 1B (’60-’74) (1985) – Ben Taylor appears to be the comp, but Cash ranks so close to Dizzy in the total value column that I have raised Taylor 5 spots instead of starting Norm at 14.
17. Willie Randolph (--), N.Y. (A) 2B (’76-’92) (1998) – Looking above, my pitchers are not the ones getting elected. Because of this, either a) the infielders are getting the short shrift from me, or b) all the ‘good’ infielders have been elected. Randolph’s in the P-Hall, but that’s not good enough to be ballot-worthy.
18. Buddy Bell (--), Clev. – Tex. (A) 3B (’72-’89) – Close enough to Nettles that he has to have a place on the ballot. Graig has more value offensively, and thus gets the nod.

Dick Redding – The bar for NeL pitchers has been set higher than this, IMO. The jump from Ray Brown to Bill Foster, Mendez and Redding will keep them all out of my Hall.
Bucky Walters – It’s been awhile, but this ballot has given Bucky votes. P-Hall in ’61 even. He’s just as good as Leonard/Trout (on-ballot) and Koosman/Lolich (off). I may have to find a spot for him.
Pete Browning – Much closer to the ballot than anyone else listed below, but even he’s only approx. low 20s-high 30s.
Dave Stieb – Just behind B.Bell in the Overall Ranking, but Koosman and Lolich top him in the pitching list as well – they’re not top 15 here either.

Five players were in last year’s top ten, but not in my top 15 this year.
   116. Arrieta, Gentile Arrieta Posted: June 18, 2007 at 10:40 PM (#2408388)
Y2K ballot:

1. Nolan Ryan, sp: Easy #1. Overqualified. Lots of seasons, innings, Ks, good years. (eligible 1999, PHOM 2000)

2. Goose Gossage, rp (eligible & PHOM 2000)
3. Rollie Fingers, rp (eligible & PHOM 1991)
They’ve both been passed on the saves list by several people as the position has evolved. They got saves the old-fashioned way. They eaaarrrned them.

4. Roger Bresnahan, c: Great player whose versatility illustrates his quality. (eligible 1921, PHOM 1929)

5. Lou Brock, lf: Great player in a narrow sense. OPS+ underrates him. Post-season play elevates him. (eligible 1985, PHOM 1997)

6. Carl Mays, sp: Good peak candidate, pretty good hitter. (eligible 1935, PHOM 1986)

7. Willie Randolph, 2b: If you liked Fox, and I did, you probably like Randolph. Better bat, slightly worse glove by James-grade, similar WS, better WARP. (eligible 1998, PHOM 2000)

8. Bobby Bonds, rf: 5-tool outfielder. Had the speed and skill to play center, at least early on, but the Giants had some other guy there already. (eligible 1987, PHOM 1996)

9. Orlando Cepeda, 1b: Has the peak/prime edge over Perez and Cash, MVP (whether deserved or not). (eligible 1980, PHOM 1996)

10. Bruce Sutter, rp: Terrific ERA+ and incredible WS rate. Established the mold for the modern closer, but wasn’t confined to the 1-inning regimen. Career’s a bit short. (eligible 1994)

11. Burleigh Grimes, sp: 270 wins, .560 W%, Retro-Cy, 5 STATS AS, 9 all-star quality seasons. Too many bad seasons have ruined his chances. (eligible 1940, PHOM 1942)

12. Dale Murphy, cf: I’m not crazy about him, just less crazy about the rest of the fringe outfielders kicking around. (eligible 1999)

13. Vern Stephens, ss: Best bat among the eligible shortstops, good glove. (eligible 1961)

14. Dick Redding, sp: Long career flame-thrower, top 5(?) Negro League pitcher. HOF vote still bothers me a bit; he’d be higher if it didn’t. (eligible 1937, PHOM 1966)

15. Phil Rizzuto, ss: I’d like a little more peak, but with credit for the missing years, he’s got the career value. Great defense, infield anchor for a bunch of pennant winners. (eligible 1962)


Required comments:
Pete Browning, cf: In my PHOM (’27), and I now think that was a mistake (Beckley wasn’t). Monster hitter, monstrous on defense. That he was dominant despite in-season durability problems says quite a bit about the league.
Bucky Walters, sp and Dave Stieb, sp: Good peak candidates but I’d like a little more career.

And:
Jack Morris, sp: Like him as a prime/career candidate, not quite enough to put him on the ballot.
   117. EricC Posted: June 18, 2007 at 10:58 PM (#2408403)
2000 ballot. System: position players are rated by win shares per plate appearance relative to contemporaries at same position and overall; pitchers are rated by ERA+ (in spite of its flaws). Optimum consecutive "prime" is found in each player's career, where prime ratings are determined by a nonlinear sliding scale in which more playing time requires a lower rate for the same rating.

1. Nolan Ryan Well below the top 3; not the ace-type that he's thought to be, but his spectular career value more than qualifies him for the HoM. The only top-100-all-time candidate on my ballot this year.

2. Wally Schang Correcting for the 154-game schedule and the WWI-shortened seasons, has as much career value as Freehan in as many games, at least by Win Shares. Schang's lesser season-by-season totals is because in-season catcher usage was lower during his time than afterwards. Is it fair to penalize him for that? A case where WARP is not as flattering as WS, perhaps accounting for Schang's lack of support.

3. Tommy John Career pitching candidate in the mold of Faber or E. Wynn. Kaat is also similar. I can see how some voters would not put Tommy John within a mile of their ballots; on the other hand, John's decent showing in the most recent mock BBWAA election shows that some level of support exists.

4. Willie Randolph Most similar 2B: Frisch, N. Fox, Kent. I tend to buy the Fox ~ Randolph argument, now having had both in the top 5 of my ballot.

5. Brian Downing This is a vote that will raise eyebrows, I'm sure. I have double-checked the numbers, and did not find any errors or compelling reasons to change my methodology, although the subjective strangeness of the outcome makes me question most (1) whether the career value portion of DH-era players ratings should be docked because careers tended to be longer (2) whether being among the best DH in a season is worth as many peak points as I'm giving. He ends up so high from a combination of every quirk in my system breaking in his favor: catcher "bonus" for the catcher years, treatment of DH as a position in itself, population-based timelining, and consideration of league strength/affect of DH in a league.

6. Jack Clark Most similar players: R. Smith, Burkett, Heilmann, Cepeda, Singleton A "tweener" career that was good enough for long enough to land on my ballot.

7. Rusty Staub Looks like career >> peak to me. Will not help my consensus score, as similar players are the very very good types who don't make the HoM (or the HoF, unless they attain magic numbers like 3000 hits). I should call the bats that crowd the middle to bottom of my ballot "quadruple-A HoM candidates". Why did Dw. Evans get elected to the HoM, and not Staub?

8. Norm Cash Among better 1B most seasons 1960-1971, and occasional all-star level. More consistent than Cepeda, but less playing time per season.

9. Orlando Cepeda Among better 1B most of years during 1959-1967 and occasionally all-star level; career totals padded 1968-1974. Cepeda, Cash, and F. Howard are a set of near-exact contemporary "bat" candidates who played in the 1960s, a tricky era in which to judge the potential bottom-half-of-the-HoM "bats".

10. Elston Howard Multiple years of all star play at catcher; 1961-1964 "workload" also noteworthy. A peak that few catchers have attained, but very little outside the peak.

11. Reggie Smith Among better RF most years during the 1970s; respectable career totals; played CF in addition to RF. One stat that I've tabulated for fun is career Win Shares times career WS per plate appearance. It's not a perfect stat, but does correlate well with HoM selections. In this measure, Reggie Smith is the highest unelected player. That doesn't prove that he's a HoMer, but does suggest searching for reasons for his lack of support: (1) he's a 'tweener' between peak and career; (2) he missed a lot of playing time so that while his rate stats were always well above average, they don't show always lead to high season-by-season totals for those who look at things that way (3) he split defense among several positions; some may be rating him as a RF and neglecting his CF play.

12. Mickey Vernon Did have some all-star type seasons at 1B, but basically a "career" candidate all the way. Credit for two years missed to WWII, and belief that pre-expansion 1950s baseball had some of the toughest competiton of all time, based on teams/population. Among top contenders for "Hall of Fame chance hurt by WWII", as listed in Bill James' NBJHBA.

13. Ken Singleton Multiple all star-type seasons 1975-1979; MVP level 1977 season. Very durable in 1972-1983 prime; not much outside this. List of similar players suggests that he will not make it to the HoM easily, if at all.

14. Gene Tenace Consistent, high secondary average, run producing catcher. Would appear to be clearly below the consensus in/out line for catchers, but I rate catchers higher than most.

15. Jim Kaat Tommy John lite. Going by ERA+, anything Reuschel could do, he could do longer. I do buy the argument that ERA+ is not the perfect measure; it is very plausible to me that Reuschel did pitch better than Kaat when pitching, though there is a significant difference in total IP.

Rich Gossage is a difficult and unique case. By one set of criterea that I use, loosely defined as "peak", he rates as a HoMer. By another, more "career" measure, he is about the equal of a not-quite-HoM starting pitcher such as Sal Maglie or Dizzy Dean. Under my working philosophy, I split the difference, and Gossage comes out HoVG, not HoM. Certainly the best relief pitcher ever not named Rivera or Wilhelm.

Bresnahan is at #16: an inferior candidate to Schang (the NL in the 1900s just wasn't that strong), but would not be a bad choice for a HoMer.

Fingers looks to me like a "career reliever" candidate, like Lee Smith. This type does not come out highly in my system, though I can see the argument for having more relievers than I'm likely to put in my PHoM. FWIW, I have Tekulve higher than Fingers, a pitcher who's underrated because the save statistic is overrated.

I have Bill Byrd a touch above Redding, and Sol White as the unelected NeL candidate that I rate the highest.

Bucky Walters's case has issues of quality vs. career length, and WWII level of competition. Ultimately not enough high-quality seasons for my taste.

Bob Johnson: on the basis of his major league record, definitely not a HoMer, therefore, supporters must be giving him extra credit. Sam Rice would be a more deserving choice among late starters.

Considering the context of thin and weak competition, lack of durability, and career shortness, there is less than meets the eye in Browning's case. I disagree with recent assertions that careers were short during Browning's time. Except insofar as the contraction in 1892 terminated some careers that weren't major-league quality to begin with, my data shows no shortness of careers in Browning's time. Just among CF born within 2 years of Browning, Ryan, Tom Brown, and Hoy had significantly longer careers (in team-seasons of games played.)

I like Dave Stieb a lot, but Stieb = Cone. Will Stieb voters be future Cone voters?
   118. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: June 18, 2007 at 11:24 PM (#2408441)
I still don't have pitcher WARP--I'm sure I'll finish just as this project is over--so I'll do another non-systematic ballot this year. If the explanations seem short and/or flippant, my extensive remarks on why I support all these candidates are available in past ballot threads and discussions.

1. Nolan Ryan, he certainly did have some peak seasons to go with the career bulk
2. John McGraw, one of the highest peaks by rate in MLB history, skill set (high OBP + SB) ideally suited to his environment, grossly underrated by WS/WARP because their run estimators can't handle the 1890s and because they don't adjust properly for the difficulty of 3B in that era.
3. David Concepción, the advantage the Reds had with him over every other team at SS was worth a buttload of pennants.
4. Charley Jones with one year's blacklist credit, not quite the hitter Browning was but muuch better defensively and spent less time in the weaker league.
5. Phil Rizzuto with three years' war credit, I like my shortstops as the rest of this ballot will make clear.
6. Reggie Smith, excellent hitter, plus fielder, tough era, spent half his career at CF, Japan credit.
7. Pete Browning, see Jones remarks
8. Dave Bancroft, am I clear about shortstops yet?
9. Johnny Pesky, I'm a broken record
10. Roger Bresnahan, dominated his positional peers like nobody else.
11. Rich Gossage, 3rd greatest reliever ever, I don't think relievers are very valuable.
12. Eddie Cicotte, 1917-9 were monstrous
13. Alejandro Oms, he appears to have emerged fully formed at age 26, with standard development starting at age 22 or so he gets to here
14. Vic Willis and
15. Lefty Gomez, best pitchers remaining and I am not sure the other hitters are ballot worthy.

Left off
Willie Randolph
My system likes him plenty, but sees him in a glut around $90M career value with Harrah, Leach, Campaneris, B. Johnson with minor league credit, not enough to distinguish himself from the pack.

Rollie Fingers
Don't like relievers.

Dick Redding
Too much fabrication of record necessary.

Bucky Walters
Too much defensive support.

Dave Stieb
Not enough outside of the peak.
   119. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: June 18, 2007 at 11:40 PM (#2408472)
Last minute ballot. Forgive the lack of explanations for each candidate. I am using Dan R.'s numbers for hitters, but subjectively modified to reflect my own personal biases (less emphasis on peak rate, more emphasis on peak total seasonal value, slightly less emphasis on positional STDEV, more catcher bonus).

Pitching-wise I am open to reliever candidacies, and I strongly reward peak seasonal totals.

1. Ryan
2. Gossage
3. Dean
4. McGraw
5. Browning
6. Bresnahan
6. Rizzuto
7. Concepcion
9. L. Gomez
10.C. Jones
11.R. Smith
11.Pesky
12.Bancroft
13.Fingers
14.Nettles
15.E.Howard

16-20 would probably be Tenace, B. Johnson, Cicotte, and Maranville.
   120. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: June 18, 2007 at 11:42 PM (#2408475)
oh, jesus, that's the disadvantage of doing your ballot in wordpad on a 10 year old computer. Rizzuto and Concepcion should be 7+8.
   121. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: June 18, 2007 at 11:43 PM (#2408478)
and I should add that Steib has no shoulder seasons, though I really like his peakiness. I just can't see voting for him over Dean, Gomez, or Cicotte, all of whom to me are a smidge superior.
   122. ronw Posted: June 18, 2007 at 11:47 PM (#2408482)
'zop had a Y2K bug that duplicated his #11. As a tallier, I'm leaving off E. Howard.
   123. OCF Posted: June 18, 2007 at 11:50 PM (#2408492)
You've got two 11's and 16 candidates there, 'zop. Care to straighten out the explanation for 11-15?
   124. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: June 18, 2007 at 11:51 PM (#2408496)
Another one just under the wire. Hopefully the Y2K bug isn’t going to affect my ballot. 2 dead-certain locks, I think, and the third….who knows? I’m still not convinced Randolph’s the guy, but there isn’t much else out there. Having scanned through the ballots (looking for arguments), I’m pretty sure he’d come in with the lowest median vote ever. Lots of 14s and 15s. Which I’m helping with.

I doubt I’ve ever selected 3 pitchers before, but first time for everything. Ryan, Gossage and Steib make my PHoM this year.


1. Nolan Ryan (4) I think he's not as overrated as some people do - like Fisk, there's nobody else like him. But still, he does have a lot flash that excites people more than it should. Makes my PHoM this year.

2. Goose Gossage (new) I feel I’m pretty conservative with relief pitchers, but even so, Goose’s numbers are far enough ahead of the field that he is a very solid choice. Makes my PHoM this year.

3. Bus Clarkson (5) Parallels Elliot’s career, but with war credit he comes out ahead, and he presumably had more defensive value. The new MLE’s didn’t boost him that much, but it was enough to move him to the upper reaches of my ballot. Made my PHoM in 1997.

4. Bill Monroe (9) NOT surprised to see I was his Best Friend. The new Cuban translations boost him a slight bit, as we have more evidence for his quality. A good player at an important defensive position, with a great reputation for his fielding. People like to promote the 1890s as underrepresented, but that doesn't mean the 00s and 10s are overrepresented. Made my PHoM in 1939.

5. George Van Haltren (6) A very good player for a long time, even if he was never truly great. I can't see how people can have Beckley ahead of him when you compare them season-by-season. Made my PHoM in 1972.

6. Dick Redding (7) Seems to have a pretty good peak, and also has somewhat of a career argument. I still tend to think he’s close enough to Mendez that they both should be in or out. Made my PHoM in 1973.

7. Bob Johnson (8) I'm impressed by his consistency, he was an above-average player every year for 13 seasons. The more I look at him compared to the other corner OF candidates, the more impressed I am. Made my PHoM in 1992.

8. Reggie Smith (11) For now, I think he’s the best of the 70’s OF glut. Very similar to Medwick/Johnson, but the lack of a peak holds him back. Win Shares really likes him. Not sure how I feel about those clutch numbers. WARP definitely has him with less fielding value than Wynn. Made my PHoM in 1995.

9. Gavvy Cravath (10) With the basic 07, 09-11 additions, this is where I have him. A better peak than Johnson, but less consistent. WARP isn't as fond of him as WS, but he compares well to Kiner & Keller. Made my PHoM in 1987.

10. Tommy Leach (12) Dropped from the top of may ballot because I had to admit that Robinson was a better 3B candidate, and I wasn’t all that crazy about his argument either. I may have been overrating 3Bmen in general. Excellent fielder at important positions, OK hitter. One of the most complete players on the ballot. Made my PHoM in 1940.

11. Phil Rizzuto (13) He does come out as comparable to Sewell in total value, but it’s very defense-heavy, and even if it’s unfair, I’m less certain about that. Might deserve Minor League credit for 1940 (I’m not counting it at the moment.) Made my PHoM in 1997.

12. Dave Stieb (15) He does have quite a peak, although the career argument isn’t so hot. He is fairly similar to Tiant, but I think just a little better. Makes my PHoM this year.

13. Norm Cash (14) A lot of good years, but I really think he's the Beckley of the 60s, with a shorter career (although that's not really much of a criticism). He really does look pretty similar to Hernandez, and for some reason has 6 Win Shares Gold Gloves to Keith's 1.

14. Alejandro Oms (16) A reasonable candidate, but doesn’t stand out for me in any particular manner.

15. Willie Randolph (17) A Beckley-esque career, but it wasn’t as long, and there are more 2B candidates in his era. WS sees a little more of a peak than WARP, but in either case there still isn’t much there. But, yeah, better than Fox.

16. Elston Howard (18) I wasn't giving him enough credit – now I think I am.
17. Luis Tiant (20) Like I said, he is really close to Stieb. I think Stieb gets a little more credit because he was better at his best.
(17A Sam Thompson, 17B Cool Papa Bell)
18. Bob Elliott (21) Recently, when I look at him, I like him a little better than any of the 70’s 3B candidates, partly because there’s just so many of them.
19. Ben Taylor (22) Another solid candidate who might have been overlooked.
(19A Rube Foster, 19B Max Carey, 19C Nellie Fox)
20. Jack Clark (23) I really didn’t expect to see him so high, but compared to the rest of the 70s/80s OF glut here, he holds up well. Except for Staub, none of these guys were really that durable, and Clark hit better than any of them.
21. Dizzy Dean (24) Is his peak case really that much weaker than Keller and Kiner? I'm wondering. And with Stieb being a peak/prime guy, is he that much better than Dizzy?
22. Charley Jones (29) Even with the missed time credit, there's just not quite enough to make the ballot. Looking back at Kelly’s Keltner made me realize I had been underrating him slightly.
23. Tony Perez (19) I really have a tough time differentiating him and Cash. He does have a good peak, but his late-70s years aren't much above average.
24. Ron Cey (25) Better than I expected, extremely consistent. Clearly looks ahead of Bando and Nettles to me - better hitter than Nettles, better fielder than Bando, better peak than both of them. He's wasn't any worse than Evans, but didn't last as long. Major worry is overcrowding of 3B in this era.
25. Bobby Bonds (26) On further review, I was a bit too bullish on him when he first showed up, but he is quite good.
26. Vern Stephens (27) Close to Rizzuto, but with the wartime discount and the sudden dropoff after 1950, not quite there.
27. Orlando Cepeda (31) A little ways behind the other 1Bmen. They all have a stronger argument for one angle or another. He did get his career off to a great start, though.
28. Don Newcombe (30) Basically the only pitcher candidate left from the 50s, and he has an interesting argument.
(28A Ralph Kiner, 28B Richie Ashburn)
29. Rusty Staub (28) A career candidate with some peak value, but also picked up WS by just hanging around. Definitely behind Perez.
(29A Hughie Jennings, 29B George Sisler)
30. Roger Bresnahan (32) I understand his situation, but he doesn't even have 1000 games caught. A significantly better hitter than Howard, but I think if you give Elston fair credit, his career value wins out.

31. Rollie Fingers (35) First, I’m not convinced he’s really ahead of all the other reliever candidates, and second, I’m not convinced that he would be worth induction even if he was.
32. Ken Singleton
33. Sal Bando
34. Bucky Walters (34) Given the wartime discount, his ERA+ of 115 is just not impressive enough for me.
35. Pete Browning (39) An outstanding hitter, but a truly awful fielder, and played most of his career in the weaker league. I wouldn't be upset if he got in, but I don't quite see it.
36. Dale Murphy
37. Dave Bancroft
38. Lou Brock
39. Tony Lazzeri
40. Frank Howard
   125. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: June 18, 2007 at 11:52 PM (#2408499)
What's funny about 'zop's ballot is that he only listed 4 guys for 16-20.
   126. Max Parkinson Posted: June 18, 2007 at 11:58 PM (#2408507)
2000 ballot (MP HoMers in bold):

I tend towards the peak/prime end of this group, with about half of the value players can earn in my system afforded to their best 7-9 or less years. My basic valuations are based on how well a player performs relative to his competition, although I also make allowances for offensive position - I like to have leadoff hitters, and power hitters, and basestealers, and glove guys. One significant way in which I may deviate from the consensus here is that I prefer guys who excel in one (but certainly more is good) facet of the game, where people here like to root for the all-rounders, possibly because they've been influenced by James, and believe that those guys are not sufficiently represented in the Coop.

Being the best Hitter, or Power Hitter, or a superlative glove man means something to me that being pretty good at everything doesn't. Hence I don't see Jimmy Wynn as very worthy, but apparently enough of you all do.

I am pretty confident in my rankings of hitters against other hitters, and pitchers against other pitchers, and then try my best to fit them together...

Oh, and I don't give war credit - to this point, it's kept only Pee Wee Reese and Joe Gordon out of my Hall of Merit relative to the group's inductees.

MP HoM / not HoM: C. Jones, P. Browning, D. Redding, G. Cravath, J. McGraw, N. Williamson, B. Taylor, R. Fingers, B. Walters (I missed a couple of elections)
HoM / not MP HoM: E. Sutton, F. Grant, M. Carey, P. Reese, E. Rixey, R. Ashburn, J. Gordon, D. Allen, B. Freehan, M. Minoso, K. Boyer, P. Rose, D. Evans, Q. Trouppe, Wynn, Fox, Roush, Beckley

1. Nolan Ryan

Is a comment necessary here?

2. Pete Browning

I am now convinced that he would have been one of (if not THE) the best hitters in the ‘80s even if there was only one league. I have therefore minimized his AA penalty.

3. Dick Redding

A long career with an early peak, and then a late resurgence. Sounds a little like the guy above, without the Ks record...

4. Goose Gossage

2nd-best reliever to this point - welcome to the HoM.

5. Dizzy Dean

Dean moved up for me when I realized that I was underrating peaks in pitchers. When Sandy Koufax can’t sniff my ballot, something’s wrong. The changes I incorporated helped Dean as well as Mendez.

6. Charley Jones

I’ve been giving him credit for his “lost” years due to blacklisting, and he vaults up the list.

7. John McGraw

If we were factoring in managerial success, he would have been in this hall as early as the ‘Coop. Alas, it’s looking tough for him here on playing alone. Not for me, though.

8. Gavvy Cravath

Another adjustment. Was the best RF in the game for a good 6 year stretch, with MVP-calibre seasons thrown in. I have resisted adding too much credit for MiL performance, but I couldn’t keep him from the ballot any longer.

9. Rollie Fingers

It’s taken a couple of years, but I’ve become more confident that he’s on the right side of the In/Out line for relievers. Answer to a good bar trivia question.

10. Bucky Walters

A very good peak, and good hitter to boot. He’s the edge right now for elected pitchers.

11. (N)Ed Williamson

Between McGraw and Williamson, we could shore up the 3B drought pretty quick.

12. Ben Taylor

A long career, great glove 1B who played between the ABC boys and Gehrig/Foxx. If we need to fill a positional gap, here’s your man.

13. George Burns

Maybe I'm crazy, but if he had put up the exact same numbers, and had been an average CF as opposed to a terrific LF (that is, no change to his talent or performance, just what was written on the lineup card), I think that he'd be in already.

14. Tony Perez

Good player - too bad that knowing Joe Morgan doesn't get him bonus points here.

15. Bobby Veach

Years ago, someone (DanG, maybe) used to post top OPS+, 1900-1920. I believe that the only members of the top twenty not yet elected are Cravath (no. 1!), Veach and Bresnahan. Veach was a second tier slugging OF, and in his best years was one of the top 3 outfielders in his league, which says something when the other two were named Cobb and Speaker.


Others of Note:
I grew up in Toronto during the '80s. Dave Stieb was my favourite player. I loved Dave Stieb. Dave Stieb is flat out not a Hall of Famer (or Meriter).

Willie Randolph is in the '30s for me. I see lots of infielders as better.
   127. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: June 19, 2007 at 12:00 AM (#2408509)
The election is now over. Results will be posted at 10 PM EDT.
   128. Juan V Posted: June 19, 2007 at 12:04 AM (#2408515)
I count 47 ballots. What's with participation?
   129. OCF Posted: June 19, 2007 at 12:05 AM (#2408519)
KJOK? Joe Dimino? mulder & scully? Tiboreau?
   130. OCF Posted: June 19, 2007 at 12:06 AM (#2408522)
And Michael Bass.

By the way, do we have a tie-breaking procedure?
   131. ronw Posted: June 19, 2007 at 12:11 AM (#2408535)
From the Constitution:

"In the event of two or more players tying with the same number of points, the players will be ranked according to the following tie-breakers: (i) the player who was more highly ranked on more voters’ individual ballots (votes will be weighed 3-2-1 if more than two are tied); (ii) if still tied, the player who was listed on more voters’ ballots; (iii) if still tied, the player who had the most 1st-place votes, (iv) if still tied, the player who had the most 2nd-place votes, etc."
   132. Paul Wendt Posted: June 19, 2007 at 12:35 AM (#2408602)
Max Parkinson
MP HoM / not HoM: C. Jones, P. Browning, D. Redding, G. Cravath, J. McGraw, N. Williamson, B. Taylor, R. Fingers, B. Walters (I missed a couple of elections)

128. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: June 18, 2007 at 08:00 PM (#2408509)
The election is now over. Results will be posted at 10 PM EDT.

Max and anyone else to whom it may concern,
There is a deadline for the HOM elections but you are welcome to vote late for the PHOM!
   133. OCF Posted: June 19, 2007 at 12:50 AM (#2408650)
Max's "couple of elections" was just one, 1999, unless he's also referring to missing 1972 and some earlier years.
   134. TomH Posted: June 19, 2007 at 12:53 AM (#2408660)
By the way, do we have a tie-breaking procedure?

ooh! ooh! ooh! drama! excitement! potential for controversy! details at 10! But first let's talk about mundane subjects like Darfur and Paris Hilton....
   135. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: June 19, 2007 at 12:58 AM (#2408678)
Paris Hilton....

Can't say I've ever been to France. Is the plumbing funky at the luxury hotels or something?
   136. OCF Posted: June 19, 2007 at 01:25 AM (#2408759)
details at 10!

At this point, considering the email traffic still going on, getting the results posted at 10 might be optimistic. We certainly needed the 2-hour gap this year.
   137. Willie Mays Hayes Posted: June 19, 2007 at 01:28 AM (#2408771)
OCF/Grandma,

If you need an extra set of eyes, drop me an email, I'll be here.
   138. Willie Mays Hayes Posted: June 19, 2007 at 01:29 AM (#2408779)
OCF/Grandma,

If you need an extra set of eyes, drop me an email, I'll be here.
   139. sunnyday2 Posted: June 19, 2007 at 01:45 AM (#2408829)
And what to do with 'zop? Assume that the second #11 = #12 and drop everybody else down and delete E. Howard.

Of course there's also the issue of whether it's a valid ballot at all. I mean, under the circumstances. Of course by my calc it doesn't affect the outcome. Except oh BTW I seem to be missing 2 ballots, I have 45. So maybe it is a difference-maker. But as a technicality, it's, well....
   140. Howie Menckel Posted: June 19, 2007 at 01:54 AM (#2408851)
What is up with people voting at the last minute, anyway?
Two weeks of discussion, and 7 days to vote....

I think I needed til Saturday to vote this year, longer than usual, but it happens. That ain't Monday 7:59 and a hair, though.

If for no other reason than to make life easier for the grownups here who count ballots, can people shoot for Monday noon next time and the time after that?
   141. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: June 19, 2007 at 01:56 AM (#2408857)
I know Howie . . . I screwed up.

I will have a ballot posted shortly. I sent John an email - something came up at work, very unexpectedly and I had no choice. From here forward I'll get my ballot in before Monday . . . this was a crazy weekend, the movers came Friday, I was unpacking all day Saturday and Sunday I went to the F-1 race at Indy with my workgroup, which was an all day event. Then tonight something unexpected happened and I got home late.
   142. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: June 19, 2007 at 01:57 AM (#2408859)
Oh, and I'm an hour behind now! That 8 p.m. should be JDST - Joe D Standard Time!

I really apologize to the ballot counters as well. Mea culpa.
   143. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: June 19, 2007 at 02:10 AM (#2408881)
This isn't the first time I've gotten mine in at the last minute. I just have a habit of putting things off. I had the order basically set last night, but I wanted more time to think, so I decided to wait and finish it up at work today. Wouldn't you know it, there was actually work for me to do all day, so I couldn't get to working on the ballot until 6:00, and I had to grab dinner, etc, etc.

But I should have posted or e-mailed that one was coming, I will try to do that in the future.
   144. jimd Posted: June 19, 2007 at 02:21 AM (#2408922)
And what to do with 'zop? Assume that the second #11 = #12 and drop everybody else down and delete E. Howard.

That's what the counters did.
   145. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: June 19, 2007 at 02:22 AM (#2408927)
My ballot:

Since some people asked us to include what we consider . . . I try to look at it all. I'm a career voter mostly - not because I have any bias towards it, but just because the numbers (and every study I've ever seen) tell me that peaks are overrated and 5+5 is only about 10-15% less valuable than 10+0.

I give full war credit, and I think it's a major mistake not to when comparing players across eras. My biggest regret on this project is that we didn't require all voters to give war credit like we did with Negro League credit. I see no difference, both were a circumstance of the player's birthday that was beyond his control. I also follow similar philosophy on strikes. I think it's a cop out to say we don't know so it's a zero. If a guy was a 25 WS a year player before and after the war, a zero is a much bigger mistake than giving him three 25s. As far as injury you just credit a guy based on his playing time before and after the war. There's no reason to assume he would have been any more (or less) injury prone during those years.

I'll give minor league credit for players trapped - once they've had a 'here I am, let me play!' season.

Of late I've been much more hands on in rating the pitchers than the position players. I'm very confident in my pitcher rankings. My position player rankings I'm less confident in, but there are only so many hours in the day, and because of that you'll see more position players moving around from week to week than pitchers.

1. Nolan Ryan SP (4) - Would be first most years.

2. Goose Gossage RP (n/e) - Arguably the greatest reliever of all-time. 1977 the greatest relief season of any eligible pitchers (I haven't figured the non-eligibles, but I doubt anyone will beat it).

3. Rick Reuschel SP (5) - This ranking surprises me a great deal. It's one thing to 'discover' an Ezra Sutton (I mean as a group, not that I discovered him first or anything) who played 130 years ago. But Rick Reuschel was there, right before my very eyes. He pitched in the World Series for my favorite team when I was turning 9 years old. And I never had a clue he was this good.

My Pennants Added system, which account for fielding support, parks, bullpen support, etc.; shows him as the #30 pitcher eligible, right behind Dazzy Vance, Ed Walsh and Amos Rusie, and ahead of Jim Bunning, Sandy Koufax and Juan Marichal.

He isn't peakless either. His 1977 was every bit as valuable as Bunning's 1966. Bunning definitely has him beat in years 2-5, but Reuschel makes it up with more quality in the back end. I get them essentially equal, Reuschel was a little better inning for inning, Bunning had a higher peak, but in the end they even out. I have Reuschel with a 115 DRA+ over 3745 tIP, Bunning was 113 over 3739 tIP. This is where I would have ranked Bunning, who sailed into the Hall of Merit, I have no issue putting Reuschel here.

Even when I take my numbers, but filter them through a Bill James-type NHBA scoring system (that heavily focuses on peak), Reuschel still comes out as the #46 starter eligible, in a group with guys like Jim Palmer, Noodles Hahn, Eddie Rommel, Tex Hughson, Clark Griffith and Whitey Ford. Hahn, Rommel and Hughson all had very nice peaks.

Using a JAWS scoring system, he comes out as the #35 starter, in a group with Wes Ferrell, Jack Quinn, Palmer, Stan Coveleski, Red Faber and Urban Shocker.

I am saying that Reuschel was every bit as good as the Jims, Palmer and Bunning. The only difference between Palmer and Reuschel is park and defense. Reuschel's 1977 was better than any season Palmer had. Palmer, like Bunning was better than Reuschel in the 2-5 best seasons, but by less than a win a year, and over the course of their careers, Reuschel was better, 115 DRA+ to Palmer's 113 (in a similar number of innings, Palmer had 3781 tIP. He had the one great year, and was very good from 1973-81 and 1985, 1987-89. That's a record that not a lot of pitchers can match.

4. Jack Quinn SP (6) - I'm giving him credit for 1916-18 where he was pitching (quite well) in the PCL after the Federal League went belly-up. He gets a big leverage bonus for his nearly 800 IP of relief work at a LI of 1.26. Without any PCL credit I still have him between Bridges and Grimes.

5. Willie Randolph (7) - I have him very slightly ahead of Sandberg. He scores a 98.6 in my system - Sandberg gets a 95.8, Jeff Kent was at 87.0 through 2005, Lou Whitaker scores 113.9, Bobby Grich 120.1. Just to give some benchmarks. Among non 2B with a similar score we have elected everyone. Willie McCovey scores 98.7, Ernie Banks 96.0. Dave Concepcion scores 77.7. I'm comfortable placing Randolph here, especially in light of our election of Nellie Fox, who scored 81.8.

6. Rollie Fingers RP (8) - Very easily the number 3 reliever we've seen through 1990, behind only Wilhelm and Gossage, way ahead of Sutter. He's the best I've found at preventing inherited runners from scoring. He was as leveraged as high as just about anyone. His peak is only beaten by Gossage (and Hiller if you call 1-year a peak). ERA+ severely understates how much he prevented runs from scoring, when I adjust for everything, I get his DRA+ at 124. His career was as long as any reliever except for Wilhelm. He's a laughably easy choice IMO, unless you think we should only have 1 or 2 relievers.

7. Tommy John SP (9) - Tons of career value. I would probably be sick to my stomach if Jim Kaat (who did very well in the Veteran's Committee balloting this year) got in and John did not. On the surface (career W-L) they appear similar, but when you adjust for everything, they aren't close. I have John as similar to, but better than Burleigh Grimes - about 800 more translated IP, at a 106 rate instead of a 104 rate. That's more than enough to offset Grimes peak edge. I get John somewhere between Eppa Rixey/Red Faber and Grimes on the continuum. He's over the in/out line for me. I also give no extra credit for his poineering the surgery - someone had to be first.

8. Urban Shocker SP (10) - Vaulted in 1981, with 1918 war credit (he was having a great year), and an adjustment for the AL being much better than the NL during his time. He was a great pitcher, peak guys should really look closer at him. He'd be a no brainer without his illness, which should not impact a peak vote.

9. Tommy Bridges SP (11) - Unspectacular peak (although he would have won the 1936 AL Cy Young Award if it had been invented), but a lot of career value. War credit helps nudge him above Trout and Leonard. He could obviously still pitch when he left for the war, and was still good when he returned for a short time. I give him 2 years of credit at his 1941-43 level.

10. Gavy Cravath RF (12) - Either he was a freak of nature, or there's a lot missing. I vote for the latter. Check out his thread for deeper discussion of the specifics, including a great analysis from Gadfly. He's the kind of guy we were hoping to catch when we started this project.

11. Pie Traynor 3B (13) - The more I look, the more I think we missed on this one. He gets another bump this week. I don't agree with rating Boyer above him. Traynor far outhit his 3B peers relative to Boyer and his.

12. Thurman Munson C (14) - Better than I realized - just a hair behind Freehan. Better career D, better career O, but Freehan played more and had the higher peak. Very, very close.

13. Ben Taylor 1B (15) - Consider me convinced that he was really was a great hitter. I was underrating him.

Honorable Mention

14. Dave Concepcion SS (16) - Better than I realized, and was really hurt by the 1981 strike, which occurred during his best season (and a season where the Reds had the best record in baseball, but missed the playoffs). Still no Trammell or Ozzie, but a very good player indeed. We could do worse than induct him.

15. Wally Schang C (17) - Basically the best MLB catcher between Bennett and Cochrane/Hartnett. As valuable a hitter as Campanella or Bennett. Defense was questionable.
   146. OCF Posted: June 19, 2007 at 02:24 AM (#2408930)
That would overturn the posted results. By one point.
   147. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: June 19, 2007 at 02:25 AM (#2408933)
Yes, sunnyday2, that's definitely what 'zop meant.

Howie Menckel, in my case it's because I'm constantly developing my WARP (for pitchers at the moment), so I wait until the end to have the most complete data to vote with.
   148. Delorians Posted: June 19, 2007 at 02:25 AM (#2408936)
As a lurker (non-participant), it seems as if it is common for voters to hold off submitting their ballots until the last moment, to make sure they have the order just right, etc. Then, occazsionally, something comes up at the last minute (as happens in life) and the ballot doesn't get submitted. Or, they are going on vacation and don't think they'll be able to do a thorough analysis, so they choose not to submit a ballot instead of submitting the previous year's ballot with an educated guess on the newbies.

My comment is that the results of the elections are more likely to be affected by which ballots are submitted than any changes resulting from last minute reanalysis. Therefore, I would think that voters should always err on the side of making sure the ballot gets submitted (early), rather than overanalyzing their prepared ballot until the last minute.
   149. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: June 19, 2007 at 02:26 AM (#2408938)
16. Bert Campaneris (18) - He slipped off my radar and he shouldn't have. .470 OWP, in an era where the average SS was at .372. Long (9625 PA) career as well, and a good fielder (62 FRAA). System says to rank him ahead of Concepcion pretty clearly, but I haven't been able to bring myself to do it just yet.

17. Dave Stieb SP (19) - The best pitcher in baseball between Seaver's demise and Clemens' rise (1982-85). He got a very nice peak, a decent length career (3070.3 tIP). Very similar to Bridges/Pierce/Walters. Walters had the better 'best-year' but I think Stieb had more 'very good' years and beats him by a hair.

18. Graig Nettles (20) - Vacuum cleaner at 3B, one HR title, another runner-up. He was a better hitter than Brooksy, almost his equal with the glove. Almost as long of a career, and while he wasn't as good as Robinson, Brooks had plenty of room to spare. I had him too high, but still think he belongs.

19. Rusty Staub RF (21) - Finally pushed him higher, I like career candidates with nice peaks, and from 1967-71 Staub was one of the best players in baseball. Looking at Jose Cruz made me realize I had Staub way too low.

20. Dave Bancroft SS (22) - Let's see. You've got a SS with a .498 OWP, during an era where the average SS has a .414 OWP. He's also one of the 15 most valuable defensive shortstops in history to this point. He had a reasonably long career as well, though his in-season durability wasn't great. Think that's a valuable player? I do.

21. Buddy Bell 3B (23) - Just a hair behind Nettles - arguably as good as fielder (though about a season less at 3B) and a hair behind as a hitter also. Who realized at the time that he was one of the best players in the game from 1980-82?

22. Darrell Porter C (24) - A lot higher than I thought he'd be. His 1979 was an MVP caliber season - of course it came in the one year between 1977-81 that the Royals didn't make the playoffs, so he finished 9th behind guys like Mike Flanagan and Gorman Thomas. As a catcher, in 679 PA, he had as good of an offensive season as the LF/DH that won the award. I could see ranking him almost as high as Freehan. I wish I'd looked at this sooner - I'd like to see him get the close look that Ron Cey got. Porter was definitely a better player.

23. Charley Jones LF (25) - A superstar of the early NL/AA. I give full credit for his contract debacle / blacklisting, which I consider a product of his timeframe, and not something that would hinder any modern player. I have dropped him this week. I still think he was great, but I think I'd been giving him a little too much credit for his AA seasons.

24. Jim Fregosi SS (26) - I like middle infielders that can hit.

25. Don Newcombe SP (27) - Gets color-line and Korea credit. Moving up this week after a few tweaks in the system adjusting for fielding behind him.

26. Bucky Walters SP (28) - Big years, good hitter for a pitcher, career kind of short though. Basically tied with Newcombe.

27. Ken Singleton RF (29) - I've got him as very similar to Henrich. Singleton lasted longer (ever after accounting for the war), but Henrich was a much better fielder. Henrich had more power and Singleton more OBP. But when you add it all up, their overall value was quite similar.

28. Burleigh Grimes SP (30) - Faced pretty steep competition (.520 RSI), so his 256-226 RSI and 107 ERA+ understates his record somewhat. I wouldn't be against his election at this point - his hitting puts him over the top. The updated fielding adjustments in WARP drop him a little in the rankings.

29. Phil Rizzuto SS (31) - Lost 3 prime years to WWII. Great defense, and a huge year in 1950 also.

30. Norm Cash 1B (32) - Wow, history books, where have you been hiding this guy? .671 career OWP! +109 fielding runs! That puts his defense at a level with Roger Connor, George Kelly and Frank McCormick among the all-time greats. He has more FRAA than Vic Power, for example.

31. Roger Bresnahan C/OF (33) - Great hitter / catcher = tough combination to overlook.

32. Dave Parker (34) - I wrote a paper in college advocating him for the Hall of Fame, but now I realize that was a mistake. He just wasn't good enough when he was good to offset 1980-84.

33. Tommy Henrich RF (35) - Very underrated, gets a ton of war credit.


Mandatory comments:

Dick Redding - he was good, but I think we are overrating him. I can't see how he's better than Grimes.

Pete Browning - would be by far our biggest mistake. Hack Wilson would be an equivalent electee.

Others:

Charlie Hough - could be on the ballot, similar in career value to Burleigh Grimes.

Jack Morris - Nice pitcher, but not a serious candidate IMO. Basically Jim Kaat with less hanging on.
   150. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: June 19, 2007 at 02:29 AM (#2408942)
Guys, just to clarify, John did not get my email, because I sent it to his old address which is the default in gmail (I need to fix that). So while I assumed everything was OK, since I wasn't called or emailed back; John was going about business as usual.

But I definitely think the ballot should count. The fact that it mattered is more a reason to count it than less of one. As I said on the results thread . . . getting all of the ballots that people want to cast (within reason), especially if they try to ask for an extension in an extenuating circumstance is much more important than sticking to an arbitrary deadline.
   151. Howie Menckel Posted: June 19, 2007 at 02:40 AM (#2408951)
I definitely think it should NOT count.
   152. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: June 19, 2007 at 02:45 AM (#2408959)
Therefore, I would think that voters should always err on the side of making sure the ballot gets submitted (early), rather than overanalyzing their prepared ballot until the last minute.


It would make my job a little easier, too. :-(
   153. sunnyday2 Posted: June 19, 2007 at 03:03 AM (#2408987)
>it seems as if it is common for voters to hold off submitting their ballots until the last moment, to make sure they have the order just right, etc.

No it's learned behavior from e-Bay. Last one to submit gets the prize.
   154. karlmagnus Posted: June 19, 2007 at 02:54 PM (#2409353)
I have no particular axe to grind in this election, unlike 1998, but I don't think there's any rational basis for ballots submitted after 8pm Monday to be counted, especially when John has formally closed the voting. Rules are rules, especially in a very close election; if you want it to count, vote early. Otherwise there will be continual uncertainty in every election and hard feelings about close ones.
   155. jimd Posted: June 19, 2007 at 07:09 PM (#2409660)
List of elections decided by 24 points or less:

1901 Wright-Glasscock (21)
1906 Spalding-Sutton (8.5)
1913 McPhee-McVey (4)
1916 Stovey-Kelley,Flick (2,16)
1929 Thompson-Sheckard (13)
1934 Speaker-Collins (14)
1940 Pike-Sewell (13)
1960 Jennings-Medwick (13)
1961 Averill-Ruffing,Medwick (13,21)
1966 Ruffing-Medwick (24)
1968 Ashburn-Mackey (24)
1972 Doerr-Mackey (11)
1975 Mackey-Brown,Sisler,Gordon,Mendez (1,7,12,12)
1976 Brown-Sisler (3)
1985 Sewell-Pierce,Waddell (18,20)
1986 Waddell-Kiner (16)
1987 Minoso-Childs (5)
1991 Moore-Fox,Wynn (2,21)
1992 Grich-Rose (3)
1996 Wynn-Roush (20)
1997 Roush-Beckley (13)
1998 Beckley-Redding,Randolph (8,19)
2000 ?
   156. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: June 20, 2007 at 01:27 PM (#2410633)
So do we have results or what?
   157. DanG Posted: June 20, 2007 at 03:11 PM (#2410737)
Is it too late to amend my ballot?
Page 2 of 2 pages  < 1 2

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
JE (Jason)
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Syndicate

Page rendered in 1.2920 seconds
49 querie(s) executed