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Hall of Merit
— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best

Monday, July 09, 2007

2001 Results: Three W’s Make It Into the Hall of Merit: Winfield, Whitaker and Willie!

In his first year of eligibility, strong-armed slugger Dave Winfied sailed into the Hall of Merit with an impressive 95% of all possible points.

Star second baseman Lou Whitaker, another newbie, received strong support from the electorate with 77% of all possible points.

Last but not least, Yankee great Willie Randolph did the squeezing out this time (unlike in our last election when Fingers won by a nose over him) when he bested 19th century batsman Pete Browning (does he finally make it in 2002 after over 100 years of eligibility?) Willie received 28% of all possible points in his 4th year of eligibility.

Rounding out the top-ten were: Dave Stieb, Charley Jones, Cannonball Dick Redding, Roger Bresnahan, Bob Johnson and Hugh Duffy.

A record 101 candidates were named on a ballot this election, breaking the 1995-96 mark of 100.

RK   LY  Player                   PTS  Bal   1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9 10 11 12 13 14 15
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1  n/e  Dave Winfield           1065   47  27 12  3  2  1        1  1                  
 2  n/e  Lou Whitaker             874   44   8 17  4  1  1  5  4  1        1  1     1   
 3    3T Willie Randolph          318   26         1  1  4  4  2  3     2        5  2  2
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 4    6  Pete Browning            316   20   1  3  3  1  1  1     3  3     1  2        1
 5    7  Dave Stieb               271   21         2  4  1        3  3  1     3  3     1
 6    8  Charley Jones            256   17   3     1  1  3     1  2  1  1  1  1  1  1   
 7    5  Cannonball Dick Redding  253   16      2  4     1  2  2        2     1  1     1
 8    9  Roger Bresnahan          252   19   1     1  2  3  1  1  2  1  2        2  1  2
 9   13  Bob Johnson              251   18         2     2  4  1  2  2  2  2  1         
10   12  Hugh Duffy               224   16   1     2  2     2  2  1        1  3  1     1
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
11   11  Bucky Walters            220   15      1     3  2  2  2  2  1  1           1   
12  n/e  Kirby Puckett            205   16      1        4  1  2     1  1  2  2  1     1
13   14  Gavvy Cravath            204   16      1  2           2  1  2  2  2     2  2   
14   10  Tony Perez               196   14      1  2  2  1        2     2     2     1  1
15   15  Alejandro Oms            177   14   1     1  2           1  1  1  3  1  2     1
16   16  George Van Haltren       153   11         2  2  1           3           2  1   
17   17  Tommy Leach              152   11               3  3     2     3               
18   22  John McGraw              150    9   1  1  1  2     2                 1  1      
19   26  Luis Tiant               142   13      1        1     1  1  1  2     1     3  2
20   30  Tommy Bridges            138    9      1  1  1  1  2     1     1              1
21   18  Graig Nettles            132   13            1        1     3  2        3  1  2
22   29  Dizzy Dean               128    8   3        1        1           1     1  1   
23   21  Reggie Smith             125   11               1     4     1     1     3  1   
24   32  Bus Clarkson             125    8         2  2     1     1        1  1         
25T  23  Lou Brock                123    8      1  1  2        1        1  1  1         
25T  27T Mickey Welch             123    8      1  1  1     1  1     1  1     1         
27   20  Phil Rizzuto             120   10            1     3  1        1  2        1  1
28   33  Burleigh Grimes          118   10         1  1     2  1                 2  1  2
29   36T Orlando Cepeda           115   10            1  2        2     1     1     2  1
30   38  Dave Concepción          106    8         1     1        3  1     1        1   
31T  19  Ken Singleton            101    9         1  1        1           2     2     2
31T  24  Rusty Staub              101    9            1  1     1  1        2  1        2
33   27T Norm Cash                 99    8            2        1  1  2              2   
34   25  Larry Doyle               97    7         1     3     1                    1  1
35   34  Dale Murphy               95   10                  1     1  1  1     1  1  3  1
36   31  Vic Willis                91    8            1  1           2        3     1   
37   35  Bobby Bonds               89    9                  1  2        1     1     2  2
38   43  Ben Taylor                81    7      1                 1     1     2  2      
39   39  Bob Elliott               79    8                        1  2     1  1  2  1   
40   52  Pie Traynor               77    7         1           1        2           1  2
41   47  Dave Bancroft             76    6         1        1           1  2     1      
42   36T Elston Howard             69    7            1        1           1  1     1  2
43   49  Wally Schang              69    6         1           1        1     1     1  1
44T  41  Tommy John                66    5            1     1  1        1     1         
44T  48  Chuck Klein               66    5      1     1              1              2   
46   42  Carl Mays                 64    5               2  1              1        1   
47T  51  Bill Monroe               59    5               1     1     1     1        1   
47T  40  Vern Stephens             59    5               1           2  1        1      
49  n/e  Don Mattingly             53    5   1                          1              3
50   50  Sal Bando                 50    5                  1              1  2     1   
51  n/e  Lance Parrish             45    4                        1  1     2            
52   45T Addie Joss                45    3      1                 1           1         
53   45T Ed Williamson             44    3      1                    1        1         
54   70T Frank Chance              43    4               1              1  1           1
55   57  Wilbur Cooper             43    3         1              1              1      
56   64T George J. Burns           42    4                           1     3            
57   58  Lefty Gomez               42    3                  2        1                  
58   54  Buddy Bell                40    4                           2     1           1
59   44  Frank Tanana              38    3               1  1                       1   
60   75  Tony Oliva                38    2         1     1                              
61   56  Ernie Lombardi            37    3            1           1                 1   
62T  81  Thurman Munson            34    3                     1           2            
62T  59T Don Newcombe              34    3                  1              1  1         
64   53  Sam Rice                  33    3                     1        1        1      
65T  73  Tony Mullane              32    3                        1  1              1   
65T  82T Urban Shocker             32    3                     1     1                 1
67   68T Johnny Pesky              30    3                              1  1  1         
68   64T Rick Reuschel             30    2         1                             1      
69   63  Rabbit Maranville         29    3                        1        1           1
70   66  Jimmy Ryan                26    2                        2                     
71T  55  Jim Rice                  23    3                                 1        1  1
71T  80  Bobby Veach               23    3                                       2  1   
73T n/e  Jack Quinn                23    2            1                                1
73T  68T Bruce Sutter              23    2                           1  1               
75   67  Jack Clark                22    2                     1                 1      
76   62  Ed Cicotte                22    1         1                                    
77   61  Frank Howard              19    2                                 1  1         
78   74  Dave Parker               18    2                                    2         
79   87T Al Rosen                  17    2                              1              1
80   77T Luis Aparicio             17    1            1                                 
81   77T Carlos Morán              16    1               1                              
82   76  Ron Cey                   15    2                                    1        1
83   77T Brian Downing             15    1                  1                           
84T n/e  Bill Mazeroski            14    1                     1                        
84T  70T Dizzy Trout               14    1                     1                        
86   59T Jim Kaat                  12    1                           1                  
87T  72  Hack Wilson               11    1                              1               
87T  85T Tony Lazzeri              11    1                              1               
87T  82T Sam Leever                11    1                              1               
90T  85T Fielder Jones             10    1                                 1            
90T  82T Leroy Matlock             10    1                                 1            
92T  87T Fred Dunlap                9    1                                    1         
92T  87T Jack Morris                9    1                                    1         
94T n/e  Jim Fregosi                8    1                                       1      
94T  87T George Kell                8    1                                       1      
96T  91T Bill Madlock               7    1                                          1   
96T n/e  Levi Meyerle               7    1                                          1   
96T  91T Mickey Vernon              7    1                                          1   
99T n/e  Dick Lundy                 6    1                                             1
99T  93T Al Oliver                  6    1                                             1
99T n/e  Mike Tiernan               6    1                                             1
Dropped Out: Charlie Hough(93T), Dutch Leonard(95T), Gene Tenace(95T).
Ballots Cast: 47

Thanks to OCF and Ron Wargo for double-checking the tally.

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: July 09, 2007 at 12:56 AM | 124 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Page 2 of 2 pages  < 1 2
   101. Sean Gilman Posted: July 12, 2007 at 10:31 PM (#2438780)
Personally, I like the HoM as it is and would personally oppose any limits to which candidates I can place on my ballot for our "annual" elections.

Absolutely. I couldn't care less about creating the illusion of "consensus". I'd rather honor a candidate some of us think is great (even though I may not, like Jake Beckley) than one we all agree is mediocre. That's why the HOM ballot was designed with an "elect-me" bonus in the first place, IIRC.
   102. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: July 12, 2007 at 10:32 PM (#2438782)
now if we could only convince my country to use run-off voting in REAL elections, ya know like for Presidents or other mundane issues.....


Seconded.
   103. jimd Posted: July 12, 2007 at 11:04 PM (#2438814)
to be able to proclaim to everyone on the outside that we had majority support for each inductee

The only candidates which truly have "majority support" are those which have gotten a majority of the possible "votes-to-elect". That's about half the HOM.

A 15th place vote on a ballot does not indicate "support". It indicates a ranking of 15th place on this ballot, no more and no less. The only differences between it and a 16th place vote is that the 15th place vote is required by our ballot rules and the 16th place vote is not, and the 15th place vote gets some points in the tally and the 16th does not.

We have no mechanism to indicate such non-support.

One such mechanism might be to ratify the results after each election. An "aye or nay" vote to accept the result. A "ratified" result would have the acceptance of a majority of the electorate. If the result is not acceptable to the majority of the electorate, then a runoff (or series of them) could be held until an acceptable result is produced. If no such result is found, then we would declare deadlock, and close the project. This would allow the electorate to "veto" an electee should a renegade group of voters be seen to commandeer the HOM electoral process.
   104. jimd Posted: July 12, 2007 at 11:05 PM (#2438817)
testing
   105. Brent Posted: July 12, 2007 at 11:28 PM (#2438893)
The only candidates which truly have "majority support" are those which have gotten a majority of the possible "votes-to-elect". That's about half the HOM.

Another way to look at it would say that I "support" those candidates who are in my personal hall of merit and not in the HoM. For me, in recent elections that's been about 20 candidates. That's an argument for an expanded ballot.
   106. yest Posted: July 13, 2007 at 07:19 AM (#2439745)
consedring these players are on my ballot
1. Addie Joss
2. Chuck Klein
3. Hack Wilson
4. George Kell
5. Sam Rice

and these are in my pHoM
1. George Burns
2. Rabbit Maranville
3. Levi Meyerle
4. Jimmy Ryan
5. Bobby Veach

and these players are amongsst those who I feel have a possible shot at my pHoM without a tremendous amount of new information
1. Wilbur Cooper
2. Lefty Gomez
3. Dave Bancroft
4. Sam Leever
5. Ernie Lombardi
6. Carl Mays
7. Tony Mullane
8. Johnny Pesky
9. Urban Shocker
10. Mike Tiernan
11. Ed Williamson

you can gauss what I hold on player eleminations
   107. Yoenis Cespedes, Baseball Savant Posted: July 13, 2007 at 08:28 AM (#2439752)
Coach Dennis Green has something to say about perpetual eligibility:

The backloggers are what we thought they were. They're what we thought they were. We ranked them in the discussion thread, and who the hell takes the second week of the discussion thread like it's bull****? BULL****! We ranked them in the prelims, everybody filled out 15 spots...THE BACKLOGGERS ARE WHO WE THOUGHT THEY WERE! And that's why we filled out the damn ballots! Now (slaps his mouse away) if you wanna un-crown 'em, then un-crown their a**! BUT THEY ARE WHO WE THOUGHT THEY WERE and we gotta get them right!
   108. Chris Dial Posted: July 13, 2007 at 11:40 AM (#2439769)
Really? Willie Randolph?
   109. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: July 13, 2007 at 01:14 PM (#2439805)
Really? Willie Randolph?


For a hall this size (and this size only - I don't want to hear about a 20-man hall :-), even if you wouldn't have had placed him on your ballot, Chris (and I didn't, BTW), is he that far off from the borderline? That's why I don't get too crazy about someone that I don't support going in. They either had a great peak, prime or career to push them into induction.
   110. fra paolo Posted: July 13, 2007 at 01:26 PM (#2439811)
Actually, if you compare Randolph with, say Nellie Fox and Bobby Doerr, he's clearly in according to WARP3. Of course, I was the man who swung the election his way, so I might be perceived as biased.
   111. DanG Posted: July 15, 2007 at 03:27 AM (#2441584)
Sean Gilman:

Absolutely. I couldn't care less about creating the illusion of "consensus".

Same here. Any proposal to expand the ballot or limit candidates has NOTHING to do with creating this illusion. It has to do with avoiding electing someone whose weak support is not accurately measured by our system.
I'd rather honor a candidate some of us think is great (even though I may not, like Jake Beckley) than one we all agree is mediocre.

This is exactly where the danger is. When a particular strain of analysis enjyos great popularity, it can lead some to a false conclusion of greatness.
   112. Sean Gilman Posted: July 15, 2007 at 09:04 PM (#2442155)
This is exactly where the danger is. When a particular strain of analysis enjyos great popularity, it can lead some to a false conclusion of greatness.

Isn't that how the HOM works. You know, considering every candidate is subject to a popular vote?

The HOM itself is a more accurate barometer of "greatness" than any of our individual PHOMs.
   113. DavidFoss Posted: July 17, 2007 at 11:05 PM (#2444187)
Isn't that how the HOM works. You know, considering every candidate is subject to a popular vote?

The HOM itself is a more accurate barometer of "greatness" than any of our individual PHOMs.


I think the point is that there is no difference between ranking a player 16th or 160th. Combine that with candidates being inducted with very low vote percentages and you have the possibility of inducting candidates the the majority of the electorate strongly *dislikes*. As the electorate further splinters as the backlog gets larger, this effect grows larger. In the controversial 2000 election, there were voters who had neither Fingers nor Randolph on their ballot. Those voters had no say in which of those two were chosen. Even if you strongly preferred on over the other (Fingers was 16th and Randolph 160th for example), your preference was not counted.

That's what I think the proposals for expanded ballots, lost cause expirations and runoff votes is trying to do. Its trying to sample everyone's opinions of the eventual inductees.
   114. DavidFoss Posted: July 17, 2007 at 11:14 PM (#2444198)
One way to have a runoff without actually having a separate vote is for everyone to *rank* all the newly eligibles and last years top ten (or fifteen or whatever) that they did not vote for on their fifteen man ballot. That way, a runoff ballot could be constructed from their ballot without a revote. It would take a bit of extra time for each voter to prepare, but it would eliminate the need for an extra vote. Getting everyone to vote twice would be a major logistical issue.

Caveat/Disclaimer: Just playing along with the thought experiment here. I'm not proposing that anything should be changed for 2002-2007 votes.
   115. Sean Gilman Posted: July 17, 2007 at 11:38 PM (#2444223)
I think the point is that there is no difference between ranking a player 16th or 160th. Combine that with candidates being inducted with very low vote percentages and you have the possibility of inducting candidates the the majority of the electorate strongly *dislikes*.

Depending on how you define "strongly dislikes" I don't think that has yet happened or is ever likely to happen.
   116. Daryn Posted: July 18, 2007 at 12:46 AM (#2444293)
Depending on how you define "strongly dislikes" I don't think that has yet happened or is ever likely to happen.

It was close with Jennings, Beckley and Fingers.
   117. Sean Gilman Posted: July 18, 2007 at 03:35 AM (#2444639)
Not the way I see it.

If you define "strongly dislike" as not appearing on your ballot, then it's happened a lot. If you define it as not being in you top 50 or so, then I don't it's ever happened.

This is all semantic.
   118. TomH Posted: July 18, 2007 at 02:11 PM (#2444915)
Self-analysis post. Quick bottom line: I am much more friendly to the "glove" positions than the group consensus.

2001 Ballot comparison
All men listed who finished among the top 47 (not counting the 3 electees) last election (all got at least 5 votes), and then those who were in my top 47 who were NOT among this group.

Pitchers

Name / ballot consensus / my spot
“-“ means not among top 47 consensus, or among my top 47

Stieb 2 12
Redding 4 9
Walters 8 5
Tiant 16 11
Bridges 17 21
Dean 19 33
Welch 23 43
Grimes 25 17
Willis 33 –
John 41 -
Mays 43 –

Reuschel – 14
Newcombe – 19
Shocker - 29

Consensus had 11 pitchers, I have 11; distribution within approx the same.


OF/1Bmen

Browning 1 34
Jones 3 -
Johnson 6 3
Duffy 7 -
Puckett 9 10
Cravath 10 -
Perez 11 24
Oms 12 31
Van Haltren 13 6
Smith 20 4
Brock 22 41
Cepeda 26 27
Singleton 28 –
Staub 29 –
Cash 30 26
Murphy 32 –
Bonds 34 20
Taylor 35 41
Klein 42 –
Mattingly 46 16

Chance – 7
Dimaggio – 22
Easter - 47

Wow, 20 “bats” in the consensus, while I have only 14. Consensus also has many of these bats up high; 9 (!) of the top 13 non-electees.


IF and C

Bresnahan 5 2
Leach 14 20
McGraw 15 1
Nettles 18 14
Clarkson 21 17
Rizzuto 24 39
Concepcion 27 28
Doyle 31 47
Elliot 36 13
Traynor 37 26
Bancroft 38 42
Howard 39 18
Schang 40 32
Monroe 44 8
Stephens 45 –
Bando 47 40

Bell – 35
Cey – 36
Munson – 37
Aparicio – 44
Maranville - 45
Lombardi – 46
Fregosi - 47

16 “gloves”. I have 22, and I have them higher; 4 of the top 13, while only Bresnahan makes the top 13 of the consensus.
   119. TomH Posted: July 18, 2007 at 02:13 PM (#2444916)
I'll repeat one point; of our top 13 backloggers, 9 played primarily 1B or OF. Zero were throwing infielders.
   120. DL from MN Posted: July 18, 2007 at 03:41 PM (#2444975)
Of course we just elected 2 throwing infielders in the most recent election so that could skew things. We're probably going to elect 3 in the next 2 elections also. Where are we going to be "short" when it's over?

There are about 9 "openings" for the backlog. We may only elect 1-3 more pitchers which is a little light but we've always been lighter than I would like. We are going to be a little thin at SS and 3B. There aren't any catchers other than Bresnahan we'll elect so that will be light. Modern CF is actually looking thin mainly because we have only elected Wynn and half of Yount since Willie/Mickey/Duke. Electing a bunch of old-time CF isn't going to help the Wynn-Griffey gap though counting Rickey as a CF would do it. 2B will be high as will corner OF but 1B should be about spot on. Overall though I think we've done a bang-up job with positional balance. We'll be +3 on C vs. the HOF, +2 on 2B, +2 on 3B, -1 on SS with better quality representatives. -10 on P concerns me though, we're harsher on pitchers than the other hall.
   121. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: July 18, 2007 at 04:55 PM (#2445037)
Up-comers by position through 2010:

1B: Murray, McGwire, Palmeiro, Bagwell
2B: Sandberg, Alomar
3B: Boggs
SS: Ripken, O. Smith, Trammell, Larkin
RF: Gwynn
LF: Raines, Rickey
DH: E. Martinez
??: Molitor
RP: Eckersley

Secondary Candidats
1B: W. Clark
3B: Ventura
RF: L. Walker
LF: Belle
SP: K. Brown, Cone, Saberhagen, Hershiser, Finley
RP: L. Smith, Franco

C: 0/0
1B: 4/1
2B: 2/0
3B: 1/1
SS: 4/0
RF: 1/1
CF: 0/0
LF: 2/1
DH: 1/0
??: 1/0
SP: 0/5
RP: 1/2

I could have put Brown in the top tier, but I haven't felt like there's been a consensus gelling around him yet.

So 1B and SS look likely to gain a bunch. CF and C fall backwards, others probably tread water. Where we classify Molitor will, however influence this. [There seem to me two possibilities. DH or 3B. He played a large plurality at DH. On the other hand, it seems odd to label a guy DH who played more than 1/2 his games in the field, in which case, he played 3B more than any other fielding position.]

Anyway, just a brief look forward.
   122. TomH Posted: July 18, 2007 at 05:32 PM (#2445072)
Will the upcoming dearth of great starting pitchers make backlog SPs of the past 40 years, specifically Stieb and Tiant, look better?
   123. rawagman Posted: July 18, 2007 at 05:47 PM (#2445099)
not to forget Tommy Bridges
   124. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: July 21, 2007 at 12:42 AM (#2448887)
Will the upcoming dearth of great starting pitchers make backlog SPs of the past 40 years, specifically Stieb and Tiant, look better?


In a perfect world, it shouldn't, Tom.
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