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Hall of Merit
— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best

Monday, July 23, 2007

2002 Ballot

Prominent new candidates: Alan Trammell, Ozzie Smith, Andre Dawson, Tim Wallach and Lenny Dykstra.

Top-ten returnees: Pete Browning, Dave Stieb, Charley Jones, Cannonball Dick Redding, Roger Bresnahan, Bob Johnson and Hugh Duffy.

Please make sure that your ballots include comments.

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: July 23, 2007 at 01:06 PM | 143 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: July 23, 2007 at 01:26 PM (#2451340)
I use Win Shares as the base for my ranking system, though I am now using a modified version (any negative values are converted into zeroes) of BRAR, FRAR and PRAR for the NA.

I am integrating the conclusions made by DERA with Win Shares for all pitchers.

I do place (to a certain degree) domination at one's position during the player's era. That doesn't mean that domination-by-default will necessarily help you though (Gil Hodges may have been the best first baseman of his era, but he wont make my ballot).

1) Alan Trammell-SS (n/e): Well, he'll be turning double plays with his HoM partner Sweet Lou in no time. Nice combination of hitting, defense and career length make him a fine choice for induction. Best ML shortstop for 1987 and 1990. Best AL shortstop for 1988.

2) Bus Clarkson-SS/3B (3): Looks like the best shortstop of the Forties, which is surprising to me. IMO, Eric would have to be totally off with his projections for Clarkson not to be near the top of everybody's ballot. Shave off 50 WS from his MLE and he still comfortably belongs.

3) Ozzie Smith-SS (n/e): The preeminent fielder of his time (maybe of all-time!) and a fine offensive player at his peak. Best ML shortstop for 1985, 1986 and 1987. Best NL shortstop for 1984.

4) Roger Bresnahan-C/CF (4): Greatest catcher of the Deadfall Era not named Santop. The poor man's Buck Ewing (Johnny Kling was the poor man's Charlie Bennett) is still good enough to be here on my ballot. Slightly better than Noisy behind the plate, but the Duke played longer and at other positions. Best major league catcher for 1905, 1906, and 1908. Best major league centerfielder for 1903.

5) Charley Jones-LF/CF (5): He was playing a more difficult position than the one that it evolved into. I gave him a little more credit for his (unfairly) blacklisted years. Best major league leftfielder for 1877, 1879 and 1884. Best AA centerfielder for 1883. Best AA leftfielder for 1885 (close to being the best in the majors).

6) Bucky Walters-P (6): The guy had a nice peak, fairly long career, and could hit. Best ML pitcher of 1939 (extremely close in 1940). Best NL pitcher of 1940 and 1944.

7) Mickey Welch-P (7): Yeah, pitching was different back then, but he still distinguished himself regardless. Best major league pitcher for 1885.

8) Pete Browning-CF/LF (8): Gotta love the peak! Best major league second baseman for 1882. Best major league leftfielder for 1883 (close in 1890). Best AA centerfielder for 1885. Best major league centerfielder for 1887.

9) Vic Willis-P (9): Willis pitched a ton of innings at an above-average rate for a long enough time for his era. Best major league pitcher for 1899. Best NL pitcher for 1901.

10) Gavvy Cravath-RF (10): I'm finally buying the arguments for him. I'm giving him MLE credit for 1908-11. Possibly would have been the best ML right fielder for 1910. Best NL right fielder for 1913 and 1914. Best ML right fielder for 1915, 1916, and 1917.
   2. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: July 23, 2007 at 01:27 PM (#2451341)
11) Alejandro Oms-CF (11): Thanks to Chris' work, another gem has been uncovered. He should gather more and more support over the next few "years."

12) Bob Elliott-3B/RF (12): Best third baseman of the Forties. He could hit, field, and didn't have a short career. Best ML third baseman for 1943, 1944, 1947, 1948, and close in 1950. Best NL third baseman for 1949 and 1950.

13) Hugh Duffy-CF/LF/RF (13): "Only" the third best centerfielder of the '90s, but that position was very strong for that decade. Best major league right fielder for 1890 and 1891. Best major league centerfielder for 1892, 1893 and 1894.

14) Pie Traynor-3B (14): Back on my ballot after a 1-year absence. Best white third baseman of his time (though J. Wilson and Beckwith was better). Best major league third baseman for 1923 (Beckwith was better), 1925, 1927, 1929 (Beckwith was better) and 1932.

15) Burleigh Grimes-P (15): Lie Pie, he has his spot on my ballot again. Pitched for a long time behind crappy teams and defenses. Not a bad peak, too Best NL pitcher for 1921 and 1929.

Redding, Johnson, Perez and Stieb all exist in my top-35, but they just fall short.

If Dawson had sustained his prime a little longer or had played center field primarily instead of right field, he would have been high on my ballot.
   3. Rusty Priske Posted: July 23, 2007 at 02:16 PM (#2451393)
PHoM: Ozzie, Trammell, Andre

I am a heavily career-minded voter. I go so far as to say that since we are judging player's careers, how could we be anything but? I recognize that not everyone sees things this way.

My first run through had Andre Dawson first, but even to a career guy like me, I realized that that was too high, so I looked deeper and made adjustments etc. He is certainly ballot worthy, though.

I also think that the electorate is overrating Smith and Trammell... but I still think they are very good and very deserving and I am putting them in my PHoM this year so I don't have a problem with their election.

1. Tony Perez
2. George Van Haltren
3. Tommy Leach
4. Mickey Welch

As I said, I'm a career voter. These four have impressive careers and have been maligned by the peak-lovers. :)


5. Ozzie Smith

Great Player. I would just rather see the overlooked players above get in first.

6. Lou Brock

The top base stealer pre-Rickey.

7. Rusty Staub

Worth the #1 spot on name alone.

8. Reggie Smith
9. Graig Nettles
10. Alan Trammell

Trammell could easily be above Smith and Nettles, but I would rather be conservative on this one... not that I think it will matter.

11. Andre Dawson

I had him at #1 and dropped him to #11. Now I am worried that I dropped him too far.

12. Hugh Duffy

Another overlooked candidate, but a solid notch below the top guys.

13. Orlando Cepeda
14. Norm Cash
15. Bob Johnson

Good players, but slipping into the group of people I'm not personally lobbying for.

16-20. Redding, Singleton, Browning, Puckett, Bonds
21-25. Mullane, Murphy, Streeter, Willis, McCormick
26-30. Strong, Monroe, Greene, Gleason, Grimes
   4. karlmagnus Posted: July 23, 2007 at 02:16 PM (#2451394)
No amount of fudging the figures makes Ozzie ballot-worthy in my system; he hit like a star from the depths of the deadball era. Trammell’s not overwhelming either, not as good as Stephens, Schang or Lombardi, but just above Frank Howard I think. Dawson typically overrated (by WS) modern CF but close to ballot, just below Lynn. Wallach and Dykstra nothing special, off the bottom.

1. (N/A-7-7-6-8-6-6-7-7-6-7-7-7-9-8-7-7-4-5-3-3-3-5-4-4-4-6-4-4-4-5-2-2
-4-4-3-3-5-4-3-2-2-3-5-2-2) Addie Joss. I’m now even more convinced I missed him earlier, and that adjusting innings down for dead ball pitchers is illegitimate. 2327 IP at an ERA+ of 142. 160-97 by age 30. If you assume the rest of his career would have been 1800 IP, 120-90 with an ERA+ of 110 (somewhat conservative, assuming you boost his last sick season, though pitchers didn’t last as long as they did later) then 50% credit would put him at 3227IP, 220-142, with ERA+ of 130. 25% credit puts him at 2777 IP, 190-120, with ERA+ of 136. Substantially better than Koufax. OPS+20. Electorate needs to take him more seriously.

2. (N/A-10-8-7-6-4-3-3-5-9-7-8-6-4-4-4-6-4-5-6-5-4-6-7-6-5-5-6-7-5-5-4-
4-5-4-6-4-4-5-4-4-5-4-4-6-5-5-5-6-7-5-5-6-7-6-5-5-7-5-5-5-6-3-4-7-6-4-4-6-5-4-3-3-4-6-3-3) Eddie Cicotte. Only 208-149 and an ERA+ of 123, but 3223 IP, more than Waddell and should get about 25% of the bonus for the 300-win career he should have had (he was, after all, a knuckleballer, who tend to peak late.) Much better than the 20s glut – only loses to Welch on longevity – Newhouser a close comp, but Cicotte had a longer career. Successfully cursed Red Sox AND White Sox for over 8 decades!

3. (N/A-10-9-8-10-11-10-13-12-14-N/A-15-14-13-12-11-10-10-11-9-9
-10-11-10-10-10-11-11-10-9-10-7-8-11-10-8-8-10-9-5-4-4-5-7-4-4) Ernie Lombardi. Up a bit more; we’re forgetting him. Berra closely comparable Berra. 2137 hits, normalized to a 130 game season, and an OPS+ of 125 makes him a little better than Schang, but some of it was during the war years and he fielded badly. TB+BB/PA .492, TB+BB/Outs .719., the ratio between the two very low because of strikeouts, I assume. Plus a great nickname!

4. (N/A-14-15-14-13-14-15-14-15-14-15-15-13-12-13-10-11-13-12-10-
11-12-11-6-5-5-6-8-5-5) Vern Stephens. Short career – only 1859 hits, but comparing him to Reese he was much better, and not far short of Doerr. TB+BB/PA .508, TB+BB/Outs .756. OPS+ 119 Best season 1944, however. Sliding up ballot.

5. (N/A-9-8-8-9-10-8-10-9-8-7-8-11-11-10-10-10-11-11-10-9-11-12-
11-14-13-11-13-13-13-13-12-11-14-13-12-11-11-12-10-10-11-12-11
-11-11-13-13-11-10-11-8-9-12-11-9-10-11-12-8-7-7-9-10-6-7) Wally Schang. When you normalize his career to 130 game seasons for the first 18 years, as I do for catchers, he gets to 1941 hits, more than Groh at an OPS+ of 117, very similar. Furthermore, TB+BB/PA=.455, TB+BB/Outs=.728, also significantly better than Groh, over very close to the same period. And he was a catcher, more difficult than 3B.

6. (N/A-10-9-8-11-N/A-15-15-14-10-10-11-12-10-12-11-9-8-9-10-10-9-
8-9-10-9-8-7-9-9-8-10-9-8-10-9-8-9-8-8-10-9-8-8-8-9-7-7-8-9-8-7-7-9-9-8-7-8-5-6-9-8-6-6-8-7-9-8-8-10-11-7-8) Charley Jones. Short career – only 1,780 normalized hits, even when adjusted to nominal 130-game-played season. But OPS+ 149, TB+BB/PA .473, TB+BB/Outs .722, so above Pike and non-CF 90s OF. Down, but just above Browning

7. (N/A-15-N/A-5-4-4-6-10-8-9-7-5-5-5-7-5-6-7-6-6-7-8-7-6-6-7-8-6-6-5-
5-6-5-7-5-5-6-6-5-6-5-5-7-6-6-6-7-8-6-6-7-8-7-6-6-8-6-6-6-7-4-5-8-7-5-5-7-6-10-9-9-11-12-8-9) Pete Browning. Recalculating, to adjust ’82 as well as ’83-’92, he had 2,177 “normalized” hits, with no AA discount. However, TB+BB/PA .511, TB+BB/Outs .855. the same as Tiernan, not quite as good as Thompson, but he got no significant boost from the 1893-94 run explosion. Career OPS+162 vs. 146 Thompson and 138 Tiernan, but you have to discount a bit for AA. Also discount for not playing full seasons; the normalized hits should thus be about 1900, so drop him to just above Hondo.

8. (N/A-12-10-12-10-11-10-7-7-8-9-7-9-13-11-10-11-12-12-11-11-11-
12-12-11-11-12-13-12-15-14-12-14-11-10-11-11-10-12-11-10-9-9-
10-8-8-9-10-9-8-8-10-10-9-8-9-6-7-10-9-7-7-9-8-7-6-6-8-9-9-10) Sam Leever. Pity he wasn’t able to start at the normal time; 2 more years would have made him a NB. Only 2660 innings, but was blocked till 27 by the one-league 1890s and having a steady job as a schoolteacher. Believe he needs to be looked at seriously by others, and included in pitcher analysis. Mild plus for high level of moral probity.

9. (N/A) Alan Trammell. 2365 hits@110, which equates to about 130 for an OF. TB+BB/PA .457, TB+BB/Outs .672.

10. (N/A-15-N/A-15-N/A-14-13-14-11-12-14-13-11-13-14-13-11-10-10-12-13-10-11) Frank Howard Very slightly better than Kiner – significantly longer career. Underrated by history. OPS+ 142 for 1774 hits. TB+BB/PA .546, TB+BB/Outs .805 in a pitchers’ park and era.

11. (N/A-12-11-11-13-14-11-12) Tommy John 288-231, 4710IP@111. Infinitesimally below Sutton, better than Kaat.

12. (N/A-13-12-13-13-12-14-15-12-13-11-11-N/A-11-9-12-12-N/A-15-15-N/A-14-N/A-15-13-12-14-15-12-13) George van Haltren. Had slipped too far at #44; we need more 90s stars.

13. (N/A-11-12-11-11-12-13-14-12-15-15-15-15-N/A-15-N/A-13-14) Carl Mays Had slipped down too far. 3021 innings at 119, 207-126 and 83 OPS+ Others should look at him more closely.

14. (N/A-6-5-9-8-9-8-7-10-11-8-9-7-7-6-6-9-9-8-6-6-6-5-4-8-7-9-12-
N/A-14-13-15-N/A-14-15) Hugh Duffy. Back on ballot after more than 60 years; we don’t have enough Beaneaters!

15. (15-14-11-12-10-9-6-8-7-7-6-7-6-3-3-3-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-5-4-2-3-2-3-3-
2-3-3-2-2-3-7-5-5-3-2-2-2-4-2-3-3-2-2-4-3-2-2-3-3-4-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-2-2-
3-2-2-3-2-2-4-2-3-2-2-4-2-2-2-4-3-3-3-4-2-2-2-2-N/A-15-N/A) Mickey Welch. UER were 43.37% of total runs allowed for Mickey, compared to about 40% with all his HOM contemporaries except Galvin (who started earlier, anyway.) Hence his ERA+, his weakness anyway, overstates his value; in spite of 307-210 he was primarily an innings-eater. 4802IP. Will now be on and off ballot.
   5. karlmagnus Posted: July 23, 2007 at 02:17 PM (#2451395)
OFF BALLOT

16. (N/A-15-N/A-14-13-15-N/A) Rusty Staub. 2716 hits at OPS+124. TB+BB/PA .484, TB+BB/Outs .724. Not quite as good as Beckley, for not quite as long.

17. (N/A-12-N/A) Fred Lynn. Underrated, considerably better than Rice or Hernandez. 1960 hits at 130, but bonus for playing CF. TB+BB/PA .531, TB+BB/Outs .791. Lovely player to watch, and absolutely top-drawer at his best.

18. Andre Dawson. Longer career than Lynn but not as good. 2774 hits @119. TB+BB/PA .499 TB+BB/Outs .705

19. Reggie Smith
20. (N/A-14-N/A-15-13-15-N/A-15-N/A) Luis Tiant 229-172. 3486 IP at 114. ERA+ a little low, but W/L good. He’s not top tier, but just a little better than Pierce. Big psychic plus for Red Sox affiliation. Looking at Reuschel, a little overplaced so have slipped him down.

21. (N/A-13-15-N/A-15-15-N/A) Vic Willis Had slipped too far.

22. Gavvy Cravath 1134 hits@150. Add 50% to career and deduct 5 points for more years in early career makes him 1699 hits @145, still a very short career, but comparable to Hack. TB+BB/PA .527, TB+BB/Outs .835.

23. Dave Stieb 176-137 very unimpressive but 122 ERA+ for 2895 innings more so. Moved up a little as I don’t think he’s far below Gossage.

24. (N/A-7-13-11-13-14-14-14-N/A-15-15-15-N/A-14-15-15-15-N/A-
14-N/A-15-15-N/A-15-N/A-14-N/A-15-14-N/A) Hack Wilson. TB+BB/PA = .588, TB+BB/Outs = .954, OPS+ 144. (he does appear to have known about BB, unlike some others.) Very short career, but quality too good to ignore.

25. Rick Reuschel. 214-191, 3548IP@114. Tough to put him far from Tiant, who had a better W/L, but I now realized I was overvaluing Tiant a bit because of Red Sox affiliation.

26. (N/A-15-N/A) Alejandro Oms. New MLE OPS+ of 125 moves him down a bit. Shorter career than Beckley, and not quite as valuable, but he was a darn good player nonetheless.

27. (N/A-14-14-N/A) Chuck Klein. Shortish career but very good one. Similar player to Beckwith, beats Hack on career length, but Hack was better. TB+BB/PA .575, TB+BB/Outs .909, but only 2076 hits. OPS+137.

28. Indian Bob Johnson. Very similar career to Klein but infinitesimally less good. TB+BB/PA .569, TB+BB/Outs .890., only 2051 hits. OPS+138

29. Brian Downing. 2099 hits at 122 plus he caught about 1/3 of his games. TB+BB/PA.487 TB+BB/Outs.741

30. Roger Bresnahan. Moves up on re-examination, but not close enough to see the ballot because even with a catcher bonus his career is short 1252 hits @126, maybe 1500 with catcher bonus, since he played OF in a lot of his catcher seasons. About 2/3 catcher takes him to 140-142 but 1500 @140-142 is close but no cigar, given Klein and Johnson. TB+BB/PA .447, TB+BB/Outs .719. Lombardi and Schang very clearly better.

31. Tony Perez. Up a little, closer to Staub. 2732 hits at 122. TB+BB/PA .502, TB+BB/Outs .731.
32. Bill Madlock.
33. Toby Harrah
34. Ben Taylor.
35. Jim Kaat
36. Orlando Cepeda
37. Norm Cash
38. Jim Rice
39. (N/A-12-12-14-N/A) Tony Lazzeri
40. Cesar Cedeno
41. (N/A-14-N/A-15-N/A) Sam Rice
42. Lou Brock
43. Mickey Vernon
44. Thurmon Munson
45. Sal Maglie.
46. (N/A) Burleigh Grimes.
47. (N/A) Heinie Manush
48. (N/A-9-10-10-13-N/A) Mike Tiernan
49. Bob Elliott
50. (N/A) Dick Lundy
51. (N/A-9-12-11-14-13-14-12-11-12-13-11-11-9-9-13-14-12-14-14-N/A) Levi Meyerle.
52. Jack Clark. As good as Reggie Smith but not for as long. 1826 hits@137OPS+, TB+BB .529, TB+BB/Outs .845
53. (12-15-N/A-11-10-12-10-10-9-8-11-12-10-10-8-8-14-15-13-15-15-N/A) Harry Wright.
54. Dave Parker.
55. (N/A-10-9-8-7-6-7-8-5-12-10-10-N/A-10-8-11-11-N/A) Jimmy Ryan
56. Gene Tenace
57. Kiki Cuyler
58. Deacon McGuire
59. Jerry Koosman.
60. Boog Powell
61. Ken Singleton.
62. Bucky Walters 198-160, 3104IP at 115 certainly doesn’t make the ballot, but should be on the consideration set, so here he is. Less than Tiant or Reuschel..
63. Sal Bando.
64. Jim Fregosi.
65. Jack Quinn
66. Tony Mullane
67. Ron Cey
68. Pie Traynor
69. Jim McCormick
70. Dick Redding. My punt is 3200 innings at 114 ERA+ for a record of 207-159, i.e. same quality as Chris but a little shorter. About here looks right – a little below Grimes (longer career) and Maglie (better quality.)
71. Joe Judge
72. Spotswood Poles.
73. Buddy Bell.
74. Larry Doyle
75. Kirby Puckett 2304 hits @124. TB+BB/PA .498 TB+BB/Outs .738 Overrated badly by the HOF; 5 adjusted OPS+ points short of Cepeda, who’s below the ballot.
76. Curt Simmons
77. Waite Hoyt.
78. Harry Hooper.
79. Vada Pinson
80. Gil Hodges
81. Jules Thomas.
82. Rico Carty.
83. Wilbur Cooper
84. Bruce Petway.
85. Jack Clements
86. Frank Tanana
87. Graig Nettles.
88. Don Mattingley. 2153 hits@127. TB+BB/PA TB+BB/Outs. Just below Puckett because no positional adjustment. Overrated by Yankee fans; there’s a reason his career coincided with the drought.
89. Bill Monroe
90. Herb Pennock
91. Chief Bender
92. Ed Konetchy
93. Al Oliver
94. Jesse Tannehill
95. Bobby Veach
96. Chet Lemon.
97. Lave Cross
98. Tommy Leach.
99. Tom York

OFF BALLOT: Ozzie Smith. I had intended to put him about #50, out of courtesy, but I’d forgotten how bad a hitter he was. SB put his 87 OPS+ up to about 90, big deal. TB+BB/PA .386, TB+BB/Outs .552. Fox was off the bottom, so’s Smith. I don’t think fielding can make up for this much hitting deficit.
   6. OCF Posted: July 23, 2007 at 03:06 PM (#2451456)
Ah - so karlmagnus must be getting jealous of all the consensus-outlier attention that yest has been getting. For the rest of you - you know better than to take karl's word on Ozzie's offense, right? You'll figure it out for yourself.
   7. OCF Posted: July 23, 2007 at 03:11 PM (#2451458)
2002 Ballot.

1. Osborne Earl Smith (new) Much better offensively than Maranville, much better defensively than Aparicio and Vizquel. Confounds some offensive evaluation schemes - no power at all, but good at everything else. Am I being a fanboy putting him first? But he's good for it.
2. Alan Trammell (new) If Whitaker is a first-ballot HoMer, there can't be much doubt about Trammell.
3. Dave Stieb (-, 6, 6, 4, 4) RA+ Pythpat 190-131 with a 4-year peak that was an equivalent 81-41. Edges ahead of Bridges and Walters because the 80's were a harder decade to dominate. Ranks well ahead of Morris and Viola.
4. Larry Doyle (1, 3, 5, 3, 3) Big hitter in low scoring times - nearly as good a hitter as the backlog outfielders. Mediocre defense, but occupied the position for a long time. Some other voters' comments have portrayed him as not mediocre, but historically bad, a "statue." If so, why did the defense-obsessed writers vote him a Chalmers award? I tend to doubt that John McGraw would have put up with that bad a defensive liability.
5. George Van Haltren (2, 4, 7, 5, 5) He did accomplish quite a bit in his career. Has now been on my ballot for nearly 100 years. Sam Thompson has what could have been his spot in the HoM.
6. Tommy Bridges (3, 7, 8, 6, 6) RA+ PythPat 190-124. Walters had a higher peak, but Bridges was a terrific pitcher.
7. Bucky Walters (4, 8, 9, 7, 7) Offense-adjusted RA+ PythPat 197-148. More peak than Bridges, but the one thing RA+ doesn't account for directly is defensive support and he seems to have had plenty of that - so I knocked him down a couple of notches.
8. Orlando Cepeda (5, 9, 10, 8, 8) The Baby Bull. Cha-Cha. There are plenty of places to find fault: indifference to defense, selfishness about his role with the Giants, injury history, early decline. But the early decline sticks out because the start was so good. And his NL was a strong league.
9. Norm Cash (6, 10, 11, 9, 9) One year does not make a peak (or a prime). But oh, what a year. Actually, he's on my ballot as a career candidate, although missing games in each year whittles away at his career value.
10. Sal Bando (10, 14, 14, 12, 12) A hair ahead of Bob Elliott.
11. Bob Elliott (11, 15, 15, 13, 13) Now that Paul called attention to it, the Dixie Walker reference was getting a little dated. Roughly the value of Al Oliver or Brian Downing as a hitter, plus 1300+ games of pretty good 3B.
12. Lou Brock (9, 13, 13, 11, 11) Low-peak, career-value candidate, severely underrated by OPS+, but of little defensive value.
13. Tony Perez (12, 16, 16, 15, 14) A little less a hitter (mostly that's a about prime-shoulder seasons) than Staub, did play a fair amount of 3B.
14. Rusty Staub (13, 17, 17, 16, 15) Reggie Smith plus some hang-around time.
15. Luis Tiant (14, 18, 18, 17, 16) RA+ equivalent 224-164. A 60's pitcher who re-invented himself as a 70's pitcher. A major participant in the 1968 "year of the pitcher" festivities. But it's the 70's career that has more value.
16. Reggie Smith (15, 19, 19, 18, 17) A very, very good player who always seemed to wind up on winning teams.
17. Ken Singleton (20, 24, 20, 19, 18) A much better candidate than contemporary opinion would have made him. Earl Weaver's kind of hitter. But we can't let our enthusiasm for another unrecognized ballplayer overcome the fact that he's just another "bat," another corner outfielder of limited defensive value. Compared to Reggie Smith, he's got the better peak but less career - and I am more of a career voter.
18. Tommy John (17, 21, 21, 20, 19) RA+ Pythpat record of 281-244 with no big years. Compare to Tiant: the difference of 57-80 is pretty much a wash, and Tiant had some big years.
19. Darrell Porter (18, 22, 22, 21, 20) Better than Munson. Nearly as good a hitter, in context, as Lombardi.
20. Jack Clark (-, 5, 23, 22, 21) I overdid his case in his first year.
21. Graig Nettles (19, 23, 24, 23, 22) Interesting candidate, but not enough of a hitter for me to put him with Bando and Elliott.
22. Ron Cey (21, 25, 25, 24, 23) The best of that Dodger infield, although Lopes was also awfully good. Doesn't match Elliot and Bando as a hitter, so I'll slot him in behind them.
23. Frank Howard (8, 11, 26, 25, 24) Finally came to grips with his lack of defense and comparison to the likes of Singleton and Clark - and he drops in my ratings.
24. Gene Tenace (23, 27, 28, 26, 25) Only half a catcher, but a better hitter than our other half-catchers (Bresnahan, Schang)
25. Dick Redding (24, 28, 29, 27, 26)
26. Luis Aparicio (25, 29, 30, 28, 27) More games at SS than anyone else, 500 SB with a good percentage.
27. Bobby Bonds (26, 30, -, 29, 28)
28. Hugh Duffy (27, --, 30, 29) OK, but I'd rather have Van Haltren.
29. Kirby Puckett (----, 30) Racking my brain for good reasons to put him ahead of Lynn or Cedeno - I suppose he has a consistency and in-season durability advantage.
30. Johnny Evers (reconsidered) I abandoned his case long ago, but he keeps gnawing at me.

All of the other top-tenners belong to our long-term backlog. Yes, I know the arguments; no, I'm not accidentally overlooking anyone.

Andre Dawson: I understand the appeal, but I keep running into the fact that he made just too many outs to crack my top 30 as an OF.

Tim Wallach: Played forever, played good defense, had a little power. On the whole, it's too big a step downwards from Brooks Robinson to him.
   8. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: July 23, 2007 at 03:11 PM (#2451459)
Welcome back, Rusty! :-)
   9. ronw Posted: July 23, 2007 at 03:41 PM (#2451485)
2002 Ballot –I use a little of WS, WARP, RCAA, OPS+, and traditional stats, as well as reputation. I’m putting bWS/700PA and pWS/300IP, plus my broad All-Star candidates, and MVP/Cy Young candidates for fun.


1. Ozzie Smith. 12.2 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 13 AS. I didn’t think I’d have Ozzie at the top spot, but his fielding was too great to ignore.

2. Dick Redding. If only we could have his teen’s peak clearly defined. I’m going to be disappointed if he never makes it to the HOM.

3. Pete Browning. 26.1 bWS/700 PA, 5 MVP, 8 AS. There were two better hitters through the 1880’s, Brouthers and Connor. Is this finally his year?

4. Alan Trammell. 16.8 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 9 AS. Great player, I’d take him over Whitaker, but Trammell had some playing time issues that keep him from the top three.

5. Dave Stieb. 21.9 pWS/300IP, 4 CY, 8 AS. Very solid, especially for his era.

6. Roger Bresnahan. 22.7 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 10 AS. Yes, the MVP was as a CF, but still a very valuable player for his time.

7. Hugh Duffy. 20.9 bWS/700PA, 5 MVP, 10 AS. Dominant during the early 1890’s, but that might be Win Shares talking.

8. Kirby Puckett. 20.0 bWS/700PA, 5 MVP, 9 AS. I don’t think I would ever consider drafting Lou Whitaker ahead of Kirby Puckett.

9. George Van Haltren. 20.0 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 13 AS. Has gotten an elect-me vote on my ballot before.

10. Tommy Leach. 18.0 bWS/700 PA, 2 MVP, 11 AS. A good player from an underrepresented period.

11. Sal Bando. 19.4 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 10 AS. High late-60’s early 70’s peak.

12. Lou Brock. 18.7 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 11 AS. 30+ WS seasons in 1967, 1968, and 1971, plus a solid long career looks pretty good to me.

13. Ben Taylor. I think Ben was a smidgen better than Jake Beckley.

14. Bill Monroe. The ultimate overlooked candidate.

15. Luis Tiant. 21.5 pWS/300IP, 3 MVP, 9 AS. I think he may be better than electee Billy Pierce.

16. Dizzy Dean. 27.6 pWS/300IP, 3 CY, 6 AS. A bit of a shakeup in the pitcher rankings.

17. Larry Doyle. 22.5 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 11 AS. I’ve voted him high before.

18. Bobby Bonds. 22.4 bWS/700PA, 4 MVP, 10 AS. Brought slightly more to the table than Singleton and Parker,

19. Jack Clark – 24.6 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 10 AS. The man could really hit, and for a decent period of time.

20. Bob Johnson. 21.8 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 12 AS. Just doesn’t have enough peak, but very solid for a long time, plus may deserve minor league credit.

OTHER NEAR-MISSES/NEWBIES/LAST YEAR TOP 10 with comments

C. Wally Schang. 19.8 bWS/700 PA, 0 MVP, 11 AS.

C. Gene Tenace. 24.1 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 8 AS.

1B. Orlando Cepeda. 22.8 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 9 AS.

1B. Don Mattingly – 21.1 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 9 AS.

1B. Tony Perez. 19.3 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 8 AS.

2B. George Scales. I think we could have missed him.

3B. Pie Traynor. 16.2 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 11 AS.

3B. Bob Elliott. 20.3 bWS/700PA, 2 MVP, 8 AS.

3B. Tim Wallach – 12.9 bWS/700PA, 0 MVP, 7 AS. I thought he had more offense than this.

SS. Herman Long. 13.3 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 9 AS.

SS. Vern Stephens. 18.5 bWS/700PA, 2 MVP, 9 AS.

SS. Dick Lundy. Reexamining his offense seems to classify him as a near miss.

LF. George J. Burns. 20.5 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 11 AS.

LF. Charley Jones. 24.9 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 9 AS. No holdout credit.

LF. Pedro Guerrero – 25.2 bWS/700PA, 5 MVP, 7 AS.

CF. Roy Thomas. 23.0 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 10 AS.

CF. Lenny Dykstra – 21.6 bWS/700PA, 2 MVP, 3 AS. Definitely needed more PT for HOM consideration.

RF. Ken Singleton. 22.2 bWS/700PA, 5 MVP, 8 AS.

RF. Dave Parker – 19.4 bWS/700PA, 4 MVP, 9 AS.

RF. Dale Murphy – 18.8 bWS/700PA, 6 MVP, 7 AS.

RF. Andre Dawson – 18.1 bWS/700PA, 2 MVP, 9 AS. Not a high enough peak.

RF. Danny Tartabull – 20.7 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 5 AS. Too short a career.

SP. Vic Willis. 22.0 pWS/300IP, 3 CY, 8 AS.

SP. Frank Viola – 19.7 pWS/300IP, 4 CY, 7 AS.

SP. Urban Shocker. 24.6 pWS/300IP, 3 CY, 7 AS.

SP. Rick Reuschel – 20.3 pWS/300IP, 1 CY, 9 AS.

SP. Wilbur Cooper. 22.2 pWS/300IP, 1 CY, 9 AS.

SP. Eddie Rommel. 24.2 pWS/300IP, 1 CY, 9 AS.

SP. Bucky Walters. 22.6 pWS/300IP, 4 CY, 5 AS. What a peak, but some of it is war years.

SP.

SP. Mel Harder. 20.5 pWS/300IP, 3 CY, 5 AS.

SP. Jack Morris – 17.5 pWS/300IP, 2 CY, 7 AS.

SP. Mark Gubicza – 19.2 pWS/300IP, 2 CY, 4 AS. Better than I expected

RP. John Hiller. 34.7 pWS/300IP, 1 CY, 5 AS.

RP. Sparky Lyle. 34.7 pWS/300IP, 0 CY, 4 AS.

RP. Dan Quisenberry. 45.0 pWS/300IP, 4 CY, 5 AS.

RP. Bruce Sutter. 48.2 pWS/300IP, 2 CY, 4 AS.
   10. rawagman Posted: July 23, 2007 at 03:42 PM (#2451487)
2002 Ballot - part 1/2
Use a sort of peak-over career number that measures ink by playing time. Combined with rate stats and a glove measurement, I feel this gives me both context for what the player actually achieved versus what the league around him was able to do. I think it also may be time to go a little more into my baseball philosophy, which may help in clarifying my rankings. I don't believe in the single stat theory of baseball, meaning I don't use WS or WARP in my rankings. Essentially, I follow this as I think a large percentage of what contributes to baseball is not counted. Well, no one has ever counted them as statistics as far as I've ever heard. This includes things like manager's prerogative, and actions that would require a historical pbp analysis currently unavailable. I search for what I consider "total ballplayers", guys who can do it all. I believe in positional representation and abhor the thought process that says that relievers were all failed starters and 2B are all failed SS, etc... A team cannot win without a 2B, nor without someone in LF. When I look at a player's career, I try to ask myself how I would feel about him as his manager - would his presence require special tactics to protect him, or is he completely reliable. I hope it can be seen by my rankings that the reliable players generally rise above the ones with clear holes in their games. There are always exceptions, but this is what I have. The stats I look at to get here tend to be traditional and rate, both offensive and defensive. Contemporary opinion also helps.
Ozzie Smith and Alan Trammell go right into my PHOM taking the 2 and 6 slots, respectively, on my ballot. Last year's electee, Randolph, joins them in that honour. Andre Dawson falls just shy of the ballot, at 16. Topping the PHOM backlog are Stieb (who gets back on the ballot), Dawson and Al Oliver. Of the other newcomers, Wallach and Thompson make the tail end tof their respective positions consideration sets. No one else impressed me enough to make that statement about them.


1)Hugh Duffy - Super peak, wonderful prime. Amazing bat, super glove. (PHOM)
2)Ozzie Smith - I cannot justify putting a hitter of his quality above Duffy, who I still consider to be a fully developed and valuable player from all sides of the game. Smith was not without value offensively, but I don't think his total offensive value was much above average if that much. Of course, that glovework was still a sight to behold. Welcome to the Hall of Merit, Mr. Smith.(PHOM)
3)Ben Taylor - Can't find the peak, but a better prime (through the roof), career and glove than Beckley. I think he may be the player most underrated by the electorate. (PHOM)
4)Tommy Bridges - He was really very good. A summary of a reevaluation of some of our backlog pitchers in my high backlog (Bridges, Gomez, Redding, Walters) Of those four, the white guys were all regulars for 10-11 seasons. Bucky and Lefty both had immense peaks, but I think that Lefty's non-peak years hold up better than Bucky's. Also, Lefty does not need any war discount. Dick Redding seems more similar to Walters in that his non-peak was not so impressive. His peak was still enough to leave in him solid backlog country. (I even put him in my PHOM back when I joined the project.) Tommy Bridges wins out. He had much greater consistency. He is to pitchers what Bob Johnson was to hitters, but more of a winner. As we see the upcoming dearth of good pitching candidates, I urge everyone to give Tommy Bridges a closer look.(PHOM)
5)Kirby Puckett - I have it mentioned that some HOM voters consider Puckett to be a mistake of the BBWAA. I see where that sentiment may be emanating from, but I do beleive that his election was earned A wonderful ballplayer. (PHOM)
6)Alan Trammell - A great all round shortstop. Better durability would have seen him top this ballot. Hopefully, a quick election from us could help his case with the BBWAA voters. (PHOM)
7)Lefty Gomez - looking at him in any single way hurts him. Looking at him kaleidoscopically has him as the best available pitcher in my eyes (PHOM)
8)Charley Jones - he got the shaft - but I am not convinced as to what extent. A little reconsideration bump here. I give partial blacklist credit. I tend to be liberal with credit, but I don't think he deserves full credit. That said, even with the partial credit I am giving him (2 full years), I now see that he was rather durable in season, and he seems to have been a solid defender. (PHOM)
9)Vern Stephens - Will we look at Nomar down the road like we look at Vern now? Great bat, good glove. (PHOM)
10)Dale Murphy - A player that my system loves. At his best he dominated. That refers to the years between 1979-1988. That's a 10 year prime with a very high peak. Also demonstrated very good fielding ability. Could easily move up my ballot. (PHOM)
11)Gavvy Cravath - No longer the worst fielder in my top 120 candidates (Frank Howard). Probably still the best hitter, though. (PHOM)
12)Bob Johnson - I don't know why it took me this long. Great all-round LF. Very durable. (PHOM)
((12a)Willie Randolph)) (PHOM)
13)Bobby Veach - He did it all well. As complete a LF as is available today. (PHOM)
14)Orlando Cepeda (PHOM)
15)Dave Stieb - I wish I liked him more. Still like him plenty enough, though. On pace to be a future HOM and PHOM member. I still remember where I was when he finally threw his no-hitter.
   11. rawagman Posted: July 23, 2007 at 03:46 PM (#2451492)
2002 Ballot - part 2/2
16)Andre Dawson - Like Trammell, his lack of durability really hurts him for me. At this time, I prefer the resumes of Veach and Murphy among the OF backlog. He may yet make my ballot and my PHOM, but he's on the wrong side of the fine line for this year.
17)Al Oliver - I was surprised by the similarities between Oliver and Reggie Smith. Smith had the higher OPS+, but I fear it may be a bit hollow. Oliver trumps Reggie (and Wally Berger) in light of his more convincing peak and a glove that scores better than the other two. Career length is nice as well.
18)Tony Oliva - another big jump. Career not as short as I thought. A world class hitter.
((18a)Dwight Evans))
19)Jack Clark - Marvelous hitter who had his uses in the field as well.
20)Jim Rice - This is, more or less, where the in-out line can be found.
21)Wally Berger - super-underrated
22)Dizzy Dean - Diet Sandy Koufax. 0 calories (career), no sugar (prime).
23)Don Mattingly - In the interest of my belief in a big hall for Cooperstown, I suppport Mattingly's induction. That said, for this project, he looks to be just the wrong side of the door.
24)Bus Clarkson - I failed to give him credit as a SS earlier. More shades of Quincy. The good doctor's new numbers have been added to my spread sheet, but I have not given him any of a readjustment yet as I wait to see how the electorate takes the info. Solid chance he will make my ballot next year though.
((24a)Darrell Evans))
25)Dan Quisenberry - I suppose I've decided that I value peak in a reliever over career totals. Mind you, if the guy has both...well, we'll see what happens with Goose in a few years.
26)Bruce Sutter - Very curious to see if anyone else has him as their highest ranked reliever right now. Shorter career than the others, but when he was at his best, he was the best. That works for me.
27)Ernie Lombardi - defense was below average, but not quite horrible
((27a)Jimmy Wynn))
28)Alejandro Oms - This is a serious jump for him in my rankings (nearly 60 places). I was counting him as a RF only. The hybrid time gets him here, just above Reggie Smith. This could change. Right now I have provisionally given him a career as a 50% CF.
29)Reggie Smith - Another challenge. Uncertainties about his defense keep him from challenging my top half. Moves back up a bit as the clouds pass and I see much to compare between R. Smith and J. Wynn.
30)Dick Redding - One of the toughest for me to accurately place (PHOM)
31)Ron Guidry - I love a dominant pitcher. I don't think it's necessarily correct to view pitchers and hitters in the same light and I value a strong peak (I mean really strong) for pitchers more than for hitters (prefer a steady, all round type there). Similar to, but not quite the equal of, Lefty Gomez, one of my inner circle of best friends.
32)Al Rosen - One more season in prime, and he is top 10
33)Mickey Welch
((33a)Jim Bunning))
((33b)Billy Pierce))

34)Sparky Lyle - The biggest surprise of my remodeled reliever system. I don't look at postseason heroics so much, but for those who give plaudits for Fingers' work, check out Sparky. Great peak, very consistent.
35)Lance Parrish - SOlid all round catcher. Proud member of the HoVG. Not quite the HOM though.
36)Ron Cey - I remember his late Topps cards. Lots of very small print on the back. He compares favourably to the other eligible 3Bs. I'd still take Rosen's monster peak over his steady production, but it's close.
37)Norm Cash - Too much in one year - and that was not the best year for an everlasting peak, for a number of reasons.
((37a)Joe Gordon))
((37b)Dobie Moore))

38)Addie Joss - ERA/+ and WHIP are great, but why so little black ink?
((38a)Cupid Childs))
39)Fred Dunlap - Very short career. Very good, too.
((39a)Rollie Fingers))
40)Bucky Walters - Very similar to Pierce in overall picture - but built differently.
41)Don Newcombe - big beneficiary of pitcher's fielding analysis.
42)Tommy John - I think I like his overall picture just a smidgen more than Sutton's.
((42a)Don Sutton))
43)Luis Tiant - Undoubtedly a wonderful pitcher, but of the type who don't do that well in my system.I wasn't Billy Pierce's biggest fan, but I still liked Billy (and Marichal and Bunning) more than Tiant, so he starts off over here.
44)Tony Perez - I wasn't giving him the extra glove credit he earned through 5 seasons as the Reds' 3B. Still, no peak. As far as 1B go, I have Cepeda up higher because of his very nice peak and his not too short career as a regular. Ben Taylor suffers from a lack of documented stats. The stats there show that he could flat out mash the ball by dead-ball standards. Contemporaries say his glove was the best they had ever seen at 1B. Very apt, in this year of the Hernandez discussion. How much as a scoop worth? I think it's worth alot. I maintain that while a below average defensive 1B can cause little harm, an above average glove at 1B will provide a hefty bonus to the team lucky enough to employ one.
45)Fred Carroll - I give him around 1.5 seasons prime MiL credit. Better than Tenace.
46)Larry Doyle - If only the glove were just a little better.
47)Phil Rizzuto
48)Cecil Travis - A very worthy extra credit case.
((48a)Jake Beckley))
49)Jimmy Ryan
50)Fred Lynn - Very similar to Duffy and Roush. Loses a lot of ground due to in-season durability concerns for an otherwise very strong candidate. Should be appealing to Browning/Chance/McGraw supporters who overlook that sort of thing.
((50a)Charlie Keller))
51)Cy Williams
52)Amos Otis
53)Dolf Camilli
54)Fielder Jones - I was missing on him a bit. A very apt first name. Solid bat as well.
55)Pete Browning - A superior masher, but a horrible person to have on your team. No defensive value whatsoever and very very poor durability. Worse than most contemporary catchers.
56)Steve Garvey - Something between Perez and McCormick. Nice size career, defensive value, could hit a bit - nothing overwhelming though.
57)Jim Bottomley - More than just a Frankie Frisch mistake.
58)George Kell
59)Frank McCormick - One of the finest 1B gloves in MLB hitter, and a decent hitter as well.
60)Bob Elliott - A little 3B run here
61)Graig Nettles - Among 3B, I figure he sits nicely here between Elliott and Bando. The better question to ask is if I am underrating 3B in general. I'll have to look into it a bit more later. Nettles is the best defensive 3B on my ballot. I think he was better than Boyer as well.
62)Sal Bando
63)Buddy Bell - Fits in rather nicely in this run of HOVG 3B.
64)Pie Traynor
65)Ed Williamson - I was missing a little something here.
66)Johnny Evers
67)Elston Howard
68)Joe Wood - If he had one more really good year as a pitcher, he'd be balloted
69)Bill Mazeroski
70)Tony Lazerri - Similar value to Maz. Accrued very differently.
71)Tommy Leach - I had missed him until now - I don't see the great love for him, though.
72)Vic Willis - A reexamination of all pitchers to include fielding ability causes an adjustment for Willis and a jump up the consideration set.
73)Thurmon Munson - see below.
74)Roger Bresnahan - Not like the two above or below, he is among those negatively affected by my new adjustments.
75)Walker Cooper - some days, he reminds me of Quincey Trouppe
76)Johnny Pesky
77)Hippo Vaughn
78)Tom Henke - Not a long career, but the Terminator was one of the best closers in the game at his peak.
79)George Kell - Had him a bit too high earlier.
80)Cesar Cedeno - Found him to be comparable to Amos Otis and Jimmy Wynn in total value. Slots lower than those two in light of the shape of that value.
81)Vada Pinson - The ink really threw me for a twist. He looks like a good all-round CF, not great. But he amassed hefty ink totals for his generation. This may be a safe ranking.
82)Luis Aparicio - The low OPS+ masks his real effectiveness.
83)Tip O'Neill - The next Canadian.
84)Rocky Colavito
85)Chuck Klein - Drops like a rock. Great hitter Not much else. What separates him from Cravath. Not sure at the moment, really. I guess Cravath has those extra credit intangibles.
86)Denny Lyons
87)John McGraw - Hurt alot by my readjustment - no durability. Tsk, tsk.
88)George Van Haltren - see the comment on Wynn. Van Haltren is the big loser on the CF sweepstakes due to his poor fielding by my own accounts.
89)Rabbit Maranville
   12. DL from MN Posted: July 23, 2007 at 04:10 PM (#2451510)
2002 Ballot

1) Ozzie Smith - Best defensive SS ever? If you like Concepcion, Rizzuto, Maranville, Bancroft or Dick Lundy I expect to see Ozzie at the top of your ballot. Created offense with a good eye and terrific baserunning.
2) Alan Trammell - Whitaker is in, I can't see how you keep Trammell out. I have Tram significantly lower than Ozzie and right about even with...
3) Bus Clarkson - Going with an all-SS top of the ballot this year. My top available Ruth-integration period player. His MLEs have him pretty much equivalent with Trammell. Two NgL all-star selections in the 40s with a war in between. Two MVP caliber seasons in the Texas League in the 50s.
4) Luis Tiant - Comparable to Bunning and Marichal. 10 more PRAA than Stieb, 267 more PRAR than Stieb. Has the top seasons, career bulk and stellar postseason performance that should make him a favorite. Injuries broke up the consecutiveness of his peak and you have to throw out his final hanging-on years. Compares well to Pierce, Bunning, Drysdale, Marichal.
5) Bob Johnson - better than several contemporary elected outfielders (Medwick, Averill, Willard Brown). Did everything well for teams that didn't do anything well.
6) Norm Cash - One great season probably vaults him from off ballot to here. Cash = Cepeda + glove.
7) Tommy Bridges - Deserves war credit, strikeout pitcher with good postseason work. I like him lots more than Bucky Walters.
8) Graig Nettles - How is he much different than Randolph? Great glove, good bat, played for the Yankees.
9) Rick Reuschel - Is Stieb that much better? Top 3 seasons WARP - Stieb 29.2, Reuschel 27.9 (Tiant 30.3). Top 8 seasons WARP - Stieb 67.8, Reuschel 61.2 (Tiant 67.4). Problem is Stieb only has 2 seasons over 4 WARP after that and Reuschel has 5 (Tiant has 5 also). They both end up with the same PRAA but Reuschel has more value over a replacement.
10) Ron Cey - I'm favoring marginal 3B and marginal P over marginal OF mainly because the electors are preferring the marginal OF. Cey looks a lot like if Bob Elliott hadn't moved to RF.
11) Reggie Smith - A marginal OF I can get behind. Could make a great compare/contrast to Andre Dawson but I don't have the time today. They look close except for .366 OBP vs .323.
12) Buddy Bell - Brooks lite, outstanding fielder with just enough bat and a long career.
13) Rusty Staub - maybe I'm awarding him too much for the partial seasons but he has a great 5 year peak
14) Tony Perez - I like his time at 3B and the long career
15) Gavy Cravath - Acknowledging his status as my favorite pre-Ruth player I'll give him the last slot. Anyone from 15-18 has a good argument for the ballot.

16-20) Virgil Trucks, Bob Elliott, Ben Taylor, Jack Clark, Tommy John
21-25) Roger Bresnahan, Dave Bancroft, Frank Tanana, Orlando Cepeda, Tommy Leach
26-30) Bobby Bonds, Thurman Munson, Dick Redding, Johnny Evers, Jack Quinn

40) Charley Jones - career just a little short
43) Pete Browning - crappy defender
50) Dave Stieb - short career
58) Andre Dawson - I always thought Willard Brown was Dawson-lite. I'm still surprised Brown was elected.
91) Hugh Duffy - I don't use Win Shares and I'm not a peak voter
   13. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: July 23, 2007 at 04:31 PM (#2451535)
DL from MN--I like Concepción, Rizzuto, and Bancroft--plus Pesky and Campaneris!--but the Wizard will not be atop my 2002 ballot. Lou Whitaker's double-play partner will have to take priority. As terrific as Ozzie's fielding and baserunning was, it's not enough to overcome Trammell's massive hitting advantage. I love my shortstops more than anyone else in the electorate, I think, but I don't care whether their value comes from the stick or the glove.
   14. Rusty Priske Posted: July 23, 2007 at 05:03 PM (#2451560)
John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: July 23, 2007 at 11:11 AM (#2451459)

Welcome back, Rusty! :-)


Thanks. As I said in the discussion thread, I've been voting since 1900. I've got to stick it out to the end.
   15. AJMcCringleberry Posted: July 23, 2007 at 06:03 PM (#2451627)
PHOM - Smith, Trammell, Dawson

1. Ozzie Smith - Greatest defensive player ever? Decent hitter for a shortstop too.

2. Alan Trammell - About equal to Smith. Though he was the opposite of Smith, excellent hitter, decent defender.

3. Andre Dawson - 119 OPS+, 314 steals, over 10000 PAs, excellent defender in center. 350 Win Shares, 110 WARP3, his peak in centerfield was excellent. Basically I see him as Perez or Staub, but with more defensive and baserunning value.

4. Tony Perez - Long career (23rd in games, 34th in total bases, 62nd in runs created) and a nice peak split between third and first.

5. Bucky Walters - Great peak and good career value, 3000+ IP 115 ERA+.

6. Rusty Staub - Very long career (11th all time in games, 30th all time in ABs) with a decent peak. 59th in career total bases, 72nd in career XBH, 36th in career times on base.

7. Dale Murphy - Great hitting centerfielder. Excellent peak from '82-'87.

8. Dizzy Trout - Nice peak. '44 was fantastic, he was robbed of MVP by teammate Newhouser.

9. Jimmy Ryan - Good hitting center fielder, long career

10. Dave Stieb - Not that much different that Trout. Didn't have that one monster year like Trout.

11. Bob Johnson - Outstanding hitter, never below a 125 OPS+ in his major league career.

12. Gavvy Cravath - Superb hitter, not much of a defender. Gets a couple of minor league seasons added to his major league totals. 4th on the all time home run list when he retired.

13. Kirby Puckett - Good hitting, good fielding centerfielder. Not a long career, but a very good peak.

14. Graig Nettles - Excellent defender, good hitter over a long career. Brooks Robinson-lite.

15. Frank Tanana - Pitched a long time and was average or better for most of it. Similar to Tommy John, but had better peak.

16. Buddy Bell
17. Ken Singleton
18. Bobby Bonds
19. Ceasar Cedeno
20. Dave Parker
21. Vada Pinson
22. Tommy John
23. Norm Cash
24. Lance Parrish
25. Elston Howard
26. Hugh Duffy
27. Tommy Leach
28. Bus Clarkson
29. Bob Elliott
30. Ron Cey
31. Marvin Williams
32. Dave Concepcion
33. George Van Haltren
34. Harry Hooper
35. Luis Tiant
36. Alejandro Oms
37. Buzz Arlett
38. Don Mattingly
39. Orlando Cepeda
40. Gil Hodges
41. Burleigh Grimes
42. Reggie Smith
43. Jack Clark
44. Jose Cruz
45. Willie Davis
46. Fielder Jones
47. Dick Redding
48. Rick Reuschel
49. Pie Traynor
50. Jim Kaat

53. Browning
61. Bresnahan

Charley Jones - Not enough career.
   16. Chris Fluit Posted: July 23, 2007 at 06:33 PM (#2451666)
Charley Jones - Not enough career.


I used to think so, too, but how much of that is because of playing in shorter 80 or 100 game seasons instead of 154 or 162? Normalize those seasons and you'll find that Charley doesn't do nearly as badly on career considerations. The blacklisted time still hurts him- and it's up to you if you want to give him credit for that (I don't)- but he's not as far off as all that.
   17. Chris Fluit Posted: July 23, 2007 at 06:58 PM (#2451696)
Personal Hall of Merit: Alan Trammell, Ozzie Smith, Tommy Bridges

1. Alan Trammell, SS (n/e). Over 300 WS. Over 120 WARP. He could hit (3 Silver Sluggers). He could field (4 Gold Gloves). One of the greatest shortstops ever who unfortunately doesn’t get the recognition he deserves due to playing in the shadow of Ripken.

2. Ozzie Smith, SS (n/e). The greatest defensive shortstop ever. The big systems such as WARP and WS see him as slightly better than Trammell, but I’d rather have an all-around player like Trammell on my team than a specialist like Smith. Of course, I wouldn’t complain about having Smith, either.

3. Cannonball Dick Redding, P (3). PHoM- 1975. Great peak years between 1914 and 1919 including an estimated 2.14 ERA in 321 innings for Chicago in 1917 (according to i9). Lost a half a year in each of ’18 and ’19 due to military service. Even so, his career MLEs of 234-174 put him in the neighborhood if not ahead of contemporaries like Coveleski, Faber and Rixey.

4. Alejandro Oms, CF (5). PHoM- 1984. Finally convinced that he’s the best eligible outfielder. Including play in his native Cuba, Oms has a long, outstanding career. He hit for both average and power, plus he was an above-average (and possibly exceptional) defensive center-fielder.

5. Tommy Bridges, P (6). PHoM- 2002. One of the beneficiaries of my big re-evaluation. I love that long prime. Top ten in ERA+ 10 times in 12 seasons (Addie Joss is only other eligible 20th century with more than 7 and he has 8). Top ten in IP 5 straight seasons from 1933 to 1937 for a suitable peak. Would be higher with a bit more career value.

6. Andre Dawson, RF/CF (n/e). Has the peak: 1980-’83 OPS+ of 136-157-132-141 while playing Gold Glove-caliber defense. Has the career: #1 in unadjusted Runs Created among eligible players, #3 in Win Shares. Not enough time in CF keeps him behind Oms. Not enough OBP keeps him from being the sure-fire pick of a Kaline or Clemente. But while he’s not in their class, he’s still one of the best outfielders currently eligible.

7. Bob Johnson, LF (7). Another beneficiary of my big re-evaluation. We’ve already got plenty of players from his era, but Bob Johnson’s prime is almost as good as Bridges’. Top ten in OPS+ 10 times in 12 seasons. Top ten in RC 9 times. 13 seasons with OPS+ over 125 (Jack Clark is only other eligible outfielder with more than 10 and he has 11). Similar to Bridges, would be higher with a bit more career value.

8. Dave Stieb, P (9). The best starting pitcher of his era. Good long prime for 10 of 11 years from 1980 to 1990 (1986 was a down-year exception) in which he pitched over 200 innings 9 times and had an ERA+ over 130 7 times. No other pitcher of his era combines the bulk (going 1, 2, 1, 3 in IP from ’82 to ‘85) and the quality (going 2, 3, 1, 1 in ERA+ for those same four seasons).

9. Dave Concepcion, SS (10). My new favorite candidate. No other eligible shortstop can match Concepcion for length and quality of prime. Excellent all-around shortstop for 8 out of 9 years from 1974 to 1982 (1980 was a down-year exception), 8 ½ if counting his 89 game season in 1973.

10. Lou Brock, LF (8). PHoM- 1985. I had honestly expected that Brock would fall further in my re-evaluation but he ended up doing okay. 1622 career RC are best of any eligible player. Very consistent for 13 years from 1964 to 1976 with OPS+ always between 106 and 128 and RC/27 over 5.00 for all 13 seasons. Among the worst defensive outfielders but that doesn’t hurt him as much as it might as there are few eligible corner outfielder candidates with outstanding gloves.

11. Don Newcombe, P (12). PHoM- 1987. Great years in ’50-’51 and ’55-’56 interrupted by military service in the Korean War. Missing a rise to his career due to integration and a tail due to his own personal issues (and no, he doesn’t get credit for the latter). With proper credit, he’s well over 200 wins for his career and though he isn’t in the same class as contemporaries like Whitey Ford and Billy Pierce, he’s close enough to be worthy of induction.

12. Hugh Duffy, CF (11). PHoM- 1995. An excellent center-fielder who could have won Gold Gloves in ’93 and ’95, he was moved to left not because of poor play but because his team acquired Billy Hamilton. Also, an excellent offensive player for 8 seasons from 1890 to 1897. That’s not quite as valuable as what Concepcion did at SS, but its close.

13. Roger Bresnahan, C (13). The best catcher on the ballot. Offensively comparable to Lombardi (OPS+ 126 for Bresnahan to 125 for Lombardi) but more impressive for his dead-ball context. Also, better defensively at C with the versatility to play CF.

14. Orlando Cepeda, 1B (14). PHoM- 1996. The best available 1B. Has the peak that many of the career candidates are missing (including the recently elected Beckley) with OPS+ of 165, 164, 157 and 148. Has the career than many of the peak candidates are missing with 1375 Runs Created. I don’t think that the difference between Cash and Cepeda is all that great but I come down on the side of the Bull.

15. Dick Lundy, SS (15). Top 20 for a long time, finally cracks the top 15. Hall of Fame research shows that he walked more than initially credited. Initially compared to now-inducted Sewell and to players at other positions such as Biz Mackey and Cool Papa Bell. Similar defense to Bancroft. Similar length of prime to Concepcion from 1919-24 and ’26-28. Best player on pennant winning teams for two different franchises.

Top Ten Returnees:
Pete Browning and Charley Jones: My opinion on the two players has flipped. I now have Jones in my top 30 and consider him to be a reasonable selection. Browning keeps falling.
   18. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: July 23, 2007 at 07:08 PM (#2451707)
Chris Fluit--out of curiosity, where do you have Bancroft, Rizzuto, Pesky, and Campaneris, and why?
   19. Adam Schafer Posted: July 23, 2007 at 07:26 PM (#2451726)
I lean more towards a career candidate. A strong peak can get
you on the ballot though if there is reasonable career value
with it. Stieb is way down my ballot. I'm just not that
impressed. Jack Morris and Viola are near Stieb. Cannonball
is not on my ballot and will not ever be on my ballot. Duffy
is not far off at #26.

1. Charley Jones - A monster before and after his black
listing. I obviously give full credit for his blacklisted
years.

2. Gavy Cravath - VERY close to Jones. he took advantage of
his park. I acknowledge that. I say good for him for doing
it. No one else did it as well as he did.

3. Alan Trammell - one of my all time favorite players. His
HOF support is mind boggling.

4. Pete Browning - moves up a little bit in my system. I
realized he should be closer to Jones and Cravath than he
should be to Cepeda.

5. Orlando Cepeda - Never great, but consistently very good.
Career candidat obviously.

6. Bucky Walters - the perfect example of how someone with out
solid career value can get on to my ballot. just enough peak
with just the right amount of career value.

7. Don Newcombe - with NeL and war credit given and he comes
out practically tied with Bucky Walters in my eyes.

8. Ozzie Smith - a HOF and HOM worthy candidate. This ranking
is not a slap in the face to Ozzie. His light hitting is what
keeps him down so far on my ballot despite his long career.


9. Bus Clarkson - I am willing to speculate that he was smidge
better than Vern Stephens.

10. Vern Stephens - A shortstop with career value, that hit
for power and was perennial MVP threat is someone that I like.


11. Bruce Sutter - short on career, high on peak. The only
reliever that is going to be on my ballot for awhile. I
haven't run Lee Smith through yet, but I seriously doubt that
he'll crack the top 15.

12. Elston Howard - I admit that I missed him at first and
unjustly left him off my ballot for several years. I simply
screwed up and did not give him the career credit he deserved.

13. Bobby Veach - always a suprise to have him on my ballot.

14. Chuck Klein - same agruement that I used for Cravath

15. Jack Quinn - talk about a career candidate! i am giving
him credit for solid relief and post Federal League years as
well.

16. Ernie Lombardi
17. Lefty Gomez
18. Andre Dawson
19. Johnny Pesky
20. Roger Bresnahan
   20. Mike Webber Posted: July 23, 2007 at 08:14 PM (#2451771)
I’ll be in St. Louis this weekend at the SABR Convention, and I know Dimino will be too. Hope to see some of you guys this weekend.

1) OZZIE SMITH 326 Win Shares
2) ALAN TRAMMELL 318 Win Shares – I think both of these players are among the top 15 shortstops all-time. I give the slight nod to Smith, basically because of his defense.
3) ROGER BRESNAHAN 231 Win Share, one MVP type season, 4 seasons 20+ Win Shares. Best catcher of his era. Like Leach a combo-position player that is hard to sum up what his contributions were, because he doesn’t nest into one position.
4) TOMMY LEACH – 328 Win Shares, only one MVP type season, 8 seasons 20+ Win Shares. Good peak, excellent defensive player at third and in centerfield.
5) KIRBY PUCKETT281 Win Shares, two MVP type seasons, 10 seasons 20+ Win Shares. In the murky centerfield ranking area with Duffy, Van Haltren, Carey, Pinson and well, I’l throw Amos Otis in here too as a Royals fan.
6) PHIL RIZZUTO – 231 Win Shares, one MVP type seasons, 7 seasons 20+ Win Shares. With a conservative 60 or so win shares during the war, I move him ahead of Sewell. Same arguments as Nellie Fox, only with a 3-year hole in his career at ages 25 to 27, plus a bad return to MLB in 1946.
7) ALE OMS Based on the info we have I would consider him just above the in/out line for outfielders.
8) George Van Haltren Huge Career, plus short schedule. Even clipping his pitching credit.
9) SAL BANDO - 283 Win Shares, two MVP type seasons, 9 seasons 20+ Win Shares. I believe he was better than Ken Boyer, but his home parks helped disguise it. The big seasons are what puts him ahead of Boyer.
10) ELSTON HOWARD 203 Win Shares, 1 MVP type season, 4 20 + Win Share seasons, basically he has Thurman Munson’s career despite only having 23 win shares before age 29. Big jump on my ballot.
11) TONY PEREZ 349 Win Shares, three MVP type seasons, 8 seasons 20+ Win Shares. Hits all my targets for a ballot candidate, long career, big seasons, a top 25 player at his position.
12) NORM CASH 315 Win Shares, only one MVP type season, 8 seasons 20+ Win Shares.
13) KEN SINGLETON 302 win shares, 3 MVP type seasons, 7 20+ win share seasons. Big Seasons sneak him onto the bottom of my ballot.
14) LOU BROCK – 348 Win Shares, three MVP type seasons, 11 straight seasons 20+ Win Shares. As a career voter I’ll put him here. Batting leadoff he had great opportunity to rack up counting stats.
15) CARL MAYS 256 Win Shares, 2 MVP type seasons, 8 20 + Win share seasons


Disclosures:

Bucky Walters/Dave Stieb – may be penalizing his WW2 pitching too much. It is a toss up between Stieb and Walters for me. Stieb is hard to evaluate compared to older pitchers who pitched so many more innings.

Cannon Ball Redding – Have waivered on him, I have voted for him in the past.

Pete Browning – Heck of a hitter, short seasons, suspect league, suspect fielding, suspect teammate.

Charley Jones – Short seasons, big bat. Understand the arguments, but I personally would go another way.

Bob Johnson – in the glut of very good outfielders, Cravath, Reggie Smith, Roy White, Murcer, and Dawson.

Hugh Duffy – just off my ballot, though I prefer Dawson.

Newbies – Dawson is in my top 25, and partially because I wanted to avoid any shiny new toy regrets I didn’t push him onto my ballot.
   21. Buddha Posted: July 23, 2007 at 08:22 PM (#2451782)
As a former HOM voter, current HOM watcher and full-time Tiger fan, I eagerly await the opinion of the HOM masses on Alan Trammell.

Good to see the voters put Lou in, now lets get to work on Trammell! I want to see him above that "specialist" (sneer) Ozzie Smith.

Al-an!
Al-an!
Al-an!
   22. NHsportsfan Posted: July 23, 2007 at 08:49 PM (#2451813)
John Murphy,

I noticed you have both Trammell and Ozzie listed as "best ML shortstop" for 1987. Is that a mistake or did they tie?
   23. Sean Gilman Posted: July 23, 2007 at 09:19 PM (#2451840)
2002

1. Ozzie Smith (-)--He’s good.

2. Alan Trammell (-)--Him too. I see Smith and Trammell’s peaks has being very close, but Ozzie’s got a slight career edge, just as Trammell does on Browning.

3. Pete Browning (2)--If he played in the PCL in the 00s or the Negro Leagues in the 30s, would he be a HOMer by now? Same as with the Negro Leaguers, the league translations inordinately underrate his peak. Besides, it isn’t like the AA wasn’t a major league. A better gladiator than Russell Crowe. (1927)

4. Charley Jones (3)--Jones, Shoeless Joe Jackson and Browning look pretty interchangeable to me. (1929)

5. Tommy Leach (5)--May be the most underrated candidate out there. Great career value, fine peak and played two premium defensive positions. (1942)

6. John McGraw (6)--He’s got the best non-Browning peak of the backlog, but still a shortage of career value. (1997)

7. Andre Dawson (-)--Peak’s not quite as good as the backloggers ahead of him, but it was still very good and he’s got more career value than the outfielders below.

8. Larry Doyle (7)--Another underrated infielder. Sisler-esque peak , according to win shares.(1945)

9. Hugh Duffy (8)--High peak, medium length career, the best of a massive group of borderline OF candidates. (1964)

10. George Van Haltren (9)--Almost a HOMer not too long ago, will he make it eventually? (1966)

11. Dave Stieb (10)--Great prime but a little short on the career end leaves him in the bottom half of the ballot. But he’s a clear HOMer to me. (1998)

12. Alejandro Oms (11)--Another good, yet underrated, all-around outfielder. (1986)

13. Dale Murphy (12)--A great prime with a decent career value despite the decline phase. Fits in well with these broderline outfielders. (2000)

14. Ken Singleton (13)--Ridiculously comparable to Wynn. (1991)

15. Bobby Bonds (14)--Fine all-around outfielder, with a good mix of peak and career, like many other outfielders in this section of the ballot. (1995)

(Darrell Evans)
(Billy Pierce)
(Nellie Fox)
(Quincey Trouppe)
16. Luis Tiant (15)
17. Graig Nettles (16)
(Willie Randolph)
(Rollie Fingers)
18. Dave Parker (18)
19. Sal Bando (19)
20. Wally Berger (20)
21. Carl Mays (21)
22. Mike Tiernan (22)
23. Cesar Cedeno (23)
24. George Foster (24)
25. Dick Redding (25)
26. Dave Concepcion (26)
27. Ed Williamson (27)
(Dobie Moore)
28. Tony Perez (28)
29. Rusty Staub (29)
30. Vada Pinson (30)
31. Dan Quisenberry (31)
32. Ron Cey (32)
33. Kirby Puckett (33)
34. Norm Cash (34)
35. Rick Reuschel (35)
36. Bruce Sutter (36)
37. Don Mattingly (37)
38. Frank Howard (38)
39. Bobby Murcer (39)
40. Orlando Cepeda (40)
(Red Faber)
41. Buddy Bell (41)
42. Bucky Walters (42)
43. Vern Stephens (43)
44. Roger Bresnahan (44)
45. Andy Van Slyke (45)
46. Lou Brock (46)
47. Dave Bancroft (47)
48. Jimmy Ryan (48)
49. Rabbit Maranville (49)
50. Lance Parrish (50)
   24. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: July 23, 2007 at 09:24 PM (#2451847)
I noticed you have both Trammell and Ozzie listed as "best ML shortstop" for 1987. Is that a mistake or did they tie?


No, Trammell was comfortably above Smith. Thanks for catching that.
   25. Chris Fluit Posted: July 23, 2007 at 09:59 PM (#2451869)
Chris Fluit--out of curiosity, where do you have Bancroft, Rizzuto, Pesky, and Campaneris, and why?


I have Bancroft and Rizzuto in my top 6 at the position and consider both of them HoM-worthy. Rizzuto at 4th would be in my top 30, and Bancroft at 6th would be in my top 40. Unlike you, I also like the two long-career low-candidate shortstops Aparicio and Maranville. I think there's a pretty big cut line after Bancroft where I have another another 6 shortstops whom I consider to be in the borderline. Pesky is in that middle group. I think Campaneries is there, too, but I'm not at home right now and don't have my list with me.
   26. Chris Fluit Posted: July 23, 2007 at 10:01 PM (#2451872)
I should have said that's "top 6" in the backlog as Trammell and Smith are temporarily 1 and 2.
   27. Mark Donelson Posted: July 23, 2007 at 10:25 PM (#2451889)
I’m a peak voter, though an amazing prime or really strong career will overwhelm my peak preferences in my (revamped) system. I rely heavily on WS for hitters, with OPS+ and a little WARP thrown in as well. For starting pitchers, I prefer PRAA, with some ERA+ adjustments and a little WS (which I don’t love for pitchers) for good measure. For relievers, I’ve adopted a mix of career total PRAA and year-by-year peak PRAA, with an emphasis on the latter, which seems to produce the most sensible results I can come up with.

pHOM: Winfield, Fingers, Minoso

2002 ballot:

1. Alan Trammell (pHOM 2002). A quietly dominant player; I think he was a notch better than Whitaker. He wouldn’t get this high if I went only by WS, but I think that system is both a) underrating Trammell’s defense, and b) underrating infield defense in general. That moves him from midballot to the top.

2. Dizzy Dean (pHOM 1967). Sure, it’s a really short peak, but he was inarguably dominant during it. It’s just long enough (and high enough for that brief period) for me.

3. Ed Williamson (pHOM 1931). A lost cause, but still the best of the backlog 3Bs, for my taste. As Sunny always points out, great peak on both offense and defense. He’s the one old-timer on my ballot who never seems to give ground, regardless of how I tweak my system.

4. Elston Howard (pHOM 1976). The various extenuating circumstances of his career can’t hide the great (if short) peak.

5. Vic Willis (pHOM 1961). Not the most dominant pitcher of his era, perhaps, but then again, he was in the mix with some of the all-time greats. And his peak was very strong.

6. Pete Browning (pHOM 1979). An offensive force, if not as much of one as the insane AA numbers make it appear. His non-AA years prove that he wasn’t just a soft-league fluke.

7. Gavvy Cravath (pHOM 1985). Every time I reevaluated outfielders, he would do a little better. Now I can’t believe he hasn’t been here all along. With minor-league credit, he’s got the peak I look for.

8. Luis Tiant (pHOM 1991). No, he wasn't Carlton/Niekro/Perry/Jenkins—too inconsistent, not good enough long enough—but he packed enough brilliance into several years to get my vote.

9. Ozzie Smith (pHOM 2002). Again, the “how much is unprecedented defense worth?” question (though his little late-career offensive peak makes the contrast smaller than it is with many such players). In my system, he needs an awful lot of extra credit for his defense even to get to the ballot—his offense really isn’t that impressive overall. But he’s also that rare candidate on whom all the defensive evidence agrees, so he really does deserve that much credit.

10. Charley Jones (pHOM 1976). As with Browning, his numbers are covered in the AA mist, but I’m convinced he played at a high enough level long enough for induction—at his best, he was pretty clearly a force.

11. Al Rosen (pHOM 1968). Another very short peak, but five great years, especially at this position, are enough for me.

12. Ken Singleton (pHOM 1997). Another of the “I had no idea he was this good at the time” gang—I think he was the player most felt Rice was back then. In my system, on offense alone, he matches up well with Clemente and is better than Stargell.

13. Hugh Duffy (pHOM 1930). Finally makes his way back to the ballot after a demotion some years ago. I still like his peak a lot—just not as much as I used to. The defense doesn’t hurt, either.

14. John McGraw (pHOM 1996). Another tiny peak, but it seems good enough to outstrip the recent 3B glut to me (and at this position, it’s not like the years outside the peak are useless).

15. Larry Doyle (pHOM 1995). Yes, it’s a pretty short peak, and the weakness of era is also noted—those are the two things that have kept him off my ballot this long. And yes, I know he’s more like a modern 3B than a 2B. But his five-year peak compares favorably with those guys’, too.
   28. Mark Donelson Posted: July 23, 2007 at 10:28 PM (#2451891)
16-20: Redding (1975), Trout (1997), Pesky (1997), Oms (1996), [W. Wells (2002)], F. Howard
21-25: [Da. Evans], Cicotte (1972), Rizzuto, [Ashburn], Bresnahan (1973), [Dw. Evans], Stieb, Leach
26-30: Walters (1968), Nettles, [Whitaker], Bando, McCormick, Puckett
31-35: G. Burns, Parker, B. Clarkson, [Boyer], H. Smith, Berger
36-40: Gomez (1987), Dawson, Sutter, Dunlap, D. Murphy
41-45: Cepeda, Viola, Avila, Quisenberry, [Doerr], M. Marshall
46-50: Elliott, Mattingly, Shocker, P. Guerrero, Munson

Required Explanations and Newbies:

•Stieb. I agree with the growing consensus that he’s a lot like Walters. But I’m not as high on Walters as I once was. He’s right on the borderline, though, now, at #24.

•Redding. Not quite the peak/prime of my top pitcher candidates, but I like him a lot. He just slipped back off the ballot again this time, to #16.

•Bresnahan. He’s been in my pHOM for some time now—just bumped down by a lot of other worthy players. Not too far off-ballot, at #23.

•Johnson. Right in the heart of the Hall of Very Good, and certainly underrated historically, but nowhere close to my ballot—not nearly enough peak or prime.

•Dawson. An awful lot like a bunch of other borderline outfielders from this era, and I don’t seem much reason to elevate him above the likes of Parker and Murphy. He drops neatly between those two for me, starting at #37.

•Wallach and Dykstra are both well below the level of the lowest candidates in my (recently narrowed) consideration set at their positions, and none of the other new eligibles is even that close.
   29. DL from MN Posted: July 23, 2007 at 10:33 PM (#2451895)
pHOM: Winfield, Fingers, Minoso
1. Alan Trammell (pHOM 2002).
9. Ozzie Smith (pHOM 2002).
[W. Wells (2002)]

How many openings in your pHOM this year?
   30. Mark Donelson Posted: July 23, 2007 at 11:54 PM (#2452043)
Oy, forgot to update that line. pHOM should have been Trammell, Ozzie, and Wells, of course.

I need to get more sleep, it seems. :)
   31. favre Posted: July 24, 2007 at 03:13 AM (#2452566)
I consider myself a prime voter, using a combination of OPS+/PA, ERA+/IP, and WS on a season-by-season basis. I also give weight to underrepresented eras and positions.

1. Charley Jones
2. Vic Willis
3. Dave Stieb

There is a group of sluggers in the backlog who have roughly the same resume: about 300 career WS (with credits and adjustments); a career OPS+ 150 or thereabouts, with a high somewhere in the 170s; eight or nine prime years (with various war/minor league credits); not a lot of defensive value. This group includes Gavvy Cravath, Frank Howard, Pete Browning (with AA adjustments), Mike Tiernan; Sam Thompson and Charlie Keller, already in the HoM, also fits in this group. All these guys have an argument for induction, but I think Jones is a cut above. He also had a high peak, but a longer prime (with blacklisted credit) and better defense than the other players in this group. Although I don’t give credit for any seasons before 1876, I do suspect that his late arrival in organized baseball was due to geographical factors.

Vic Willis pitched 4000 IP with an ERA+ of 118 (and seasons of 167, 155, and 154). That’s comparable to Faber (4086/119) and Lyons (4161/118), and a whole lot better than Ruffing (4344/109). Stieb has six seasons higher than a 130 ERA+.

4. Kirby Puckett
5. Alan Trammell
6. Ozzie Smith

At their peak, Puckett and Trammell were nearly identical hitters: 152, 40, 38, 32,32 OPS+ seasons for Kirby; 155, 38, 38, 36, 30 for Alan Stuart. Trammell had a little more defensive value, but Puckett had more good seasons besides those, so he places ahead. It’s more difficult to compare Trammell and Smith—as the discussion showed this week, you could make a good argument in favour of either. I had Ozzie higher earlier in the week, but in the end Trammell’s bat gives him the nod.

7. Roger Bresnahan
8. Bus Clarkson

We have a twenty year gap at catcher from 1891-1911. I understand the arguments against filling slots, but in this case I tend to think we have underestimated how difficult the position was at the turn of the 20th Century. Bresnahan was in the top six in OPB seven times from 1903-1914; he did equally well in another five seasons, but didn’t have the PA’s to qualify for the title. That’s a darned impressive run for a catcher.

I’m using Dr. C’s original MLE’s for Clarkson rather than the upgrades, but even those show that Clarkson was the best third basemen of the early 1940s, and arguably the best shortstop.

9. Tommy Leach
10. Gavvy Cravath

Cravath averaged a 161 OPS+ from ages 32-36, and the data from the minor leagues suggests that was not a fluke. Tommy Leach, an old favourite of mine, has 324 career WS, played great defence at two key positions, and could hit a little.

11. Dale Murphy
12. Ken Singleton
13. Larry Doyle

I’m a little surprised by the lack of love for Murphy, at least by peak voters. From ’82-85, he averaged a 148 OPS+ as a CF; I don’t have my book with me, but I think WS gives him a couple of Gold Gloves during that time frame. Had another big year as a RF in ’87. That’s not an astronomical peak by any means, but it’s still pretty good.

We don’t have a lot of 1970s OFr’s: only Stargell, Yaz, Reggie, Wynn, Winfield, and Dewey so far (and Dewey wasn’t all that good during the 70s). Singleton’s nine appearances in the OBP-top ten gets him a ballot spot. Larry Doyle has been in my top twenty-five or so for decades; there’s just not a lot of second basemen out there with a career 126 OPS+.

14. Bucky Walters
15. Tony Perez

While I recognize that Walters’ 1939-’42 peak was helped by outstanding defenses behind him, he also pitched well during and immediately after the war, when his outstanding defences were either in the service or growing old. Drops a bit as I re-evaluate pitchers. Perez has the long prime that I tend to favour.

16. Bob Elliott
17. Frank Howard
18. Wally Schang
19. Rusty Staub
20. Eddie Ciccotte

Not in my top fifteen:

Pete Browning Brent/Daryn’s AA projections show he wasn’t a historic hitter, and he also had some playing time issues. Basically confirms what I’ve believed for a while: excellent hitter, mediocre defence, injury problems, same resume’ as a number of other OFers.

Dick Redding. Has been compared to Orel Hershiser. Seems apt: had a couple of big years which gives him an argument, but not quite enough for induction.

Hugh Duffy His case rests on his defense, which I think is overrated by WS.

Bob Johnson Currently at # 21, and I am considering moving him up. But if we’re talking about long prime candidates, I can’t see putting him ahead of Singleton (who was better at getting on base, and compares more favourably to his OF contemporaries) or Perez (with his time at 3B).
   32. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: July 24, 2007 at 03:33 AM (#2452598)
At their peak, Puckett and Trammell were nearly identical hitters: 152, 40, 38, 32,32 OPS+ seasons for Kirby; 155, 38, 38, 36, 30 for Alan Stuart. Trammell had a little more defensive value, but Puckett had more good seasons besides those, so he places ahead.

Favre, this argument completely ignores positional scarcity. CF is not equivalent to SS, which is why Trammell's performance, coming from a SS, is much more valuble than Puckett's.

Dan R.'s work quantifies the various positional values and his posts describe it better than I could. But it should inform your voting.
   33. mulder & scully Posted: July 24, 2007 at 07:01 AM (#2452751)
2002 Ballot: Big week and a half: My last night working at Borders – Harry Potter release night – there til 4 am; next night – Tony Gwynn statue night; Wednesday through Sunday – San Diego Comic Con. First Con since ’03 b/c of Bar exams and being in Seattle. So, here’s 2002 Ballot.

Here are the factors I consider:
1. 7 year prime
2. 3 years consecutive peak
3. rank within era and position
4. career
5. per season of 648 PA - benefits players like Chance, hurts those who played in high offense eras like the 1890s
I give bonus for being an all-star by win shares or STATS
I include time missed for WWI and II in most cases.
I include time in high minors if a player is blocked because of when he played - independent minors.
I include time for some suspensions: Charley Jones - yes, Joe Jackson - no
I believe in MLEs for skin color.

1. Charley Jones (PHOM 1906) - Receives full credit for his missing 2-plus years. A top 5 performer by win shares in many years. The best prime (sched adjusted) available. A top 5 peak. See the "Keltner-style" analysis on his thread for my complete feelings. A note to those who say his career is too short: If you look at what percentage of his team's games he played, he had almost the exact same career length as Elmer Flick. Was his career too short?
A top 10 position player from 1876 to 1885. Please see the Keltner List on his thread. All-time, Jones ranks in a knot of five left fielders with Simmons, Clarke, Stovey, and Magee.
Top 10 position player in 1876, 1878, 1879, 1883, 1884, 1885. Eleventh in 1877. Pro-rated 10th or 11th after blacklisted in 1880. Blacklisted in 1881 and 1882. Best player in 1884, top 4 in 1878, 1879 and 1885.

2. Mickey Welch (PHOM 1901) - I think we missed on him. Of the great pre-60' pitchers, he had some of the worst run and defensive support - compare to Clarkson or Radbourn or Keefe (when he wasn't with NY). Chris J.'s run support index shows that his wins are real. Also, beat opposing HoMers like a drum.

3. Pete Browning (PHOM 1921) - A fantastic hitter. I know he had his best run in the early AA, but he had a great year in the PL as well. Had a great peak and prime score in my system - which knocks him for being fragile.
Ranks at the top of a group of 5 center fielders between 13th and 17th all-time. Doby, Hill, and Brown are in the HoM, Duffy is not. Top 10 position player in 1882, 1883, 1884, 1885, 1887, and 1890. Best in 1882 and 1885. League ranks, 1st, 4th, 5th, 1st, 2nd, and 4th.

4. Bucky Walters (PHOM 1958) - Great peak. This ranking includes deductions for 1943-45. Best peak available (tied with Dean) among eligible white pitchers. Best NL pitcher in 1939, 1940, and 1944. 2nd in NL by a hair in 1941. Best in Majors in 1939, top 4 in other 3 years.

5. Bus Clarkson (PHOM 2000) - ranking is based on the revised MLEs. He could hit. He could field well enough. Career hampered by the integration-era destruction of the NeLs and quotas.

6. Hugh Duffy (PHOM 1919) - Great defender. Great prime and peak. All-star 5 times. twice best in league. Moved to LF because McCarthy couldn't hit anymore and you needed two CF in Boston's park - see SABR's new stadium book. Not at the level of several HOM 90s outfielders but comfortably above the CF standards.
A key member of the best team of the 1890s. Please see the Keltner List for him. Ranks in a group of 5 center fielders between 13th and 17th all-time. Doby, Hill, and Brown are in the HoM, Browning is not. Top 10 in 1890, 1891, 1892, 1893, 1894, and 1897. 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 1st, 1st, and 8th. 11th in 1895.

7. Ozzie Smith (PHOM 2002) – Most dominant defensive SS ever – 10 win shares gold gloves. Good offense for his position, but not overall keeps him from being at the top of the list. I am conservative with new players – I have been since I started.
Best SS in NL in 1980, 1984, 1985, 1986, 1987, 1989
Best SS in majors in 1985 – damn good in 1987, but Trammell was little better.

8. Tommy Leach (PHOM 1966) - Great defense at third and CF - gold glove level at both. A key player in one of the best defensive teams ever. Top 15 if whole career is at 3rd and top 25 in CF if whole career was there. Split the difference and he is about even with Hack and Sutton (w/o NA credit).
Top 10 in league in 1902, 1904, 1907, 1908, 1909, 1913, 1914. Rank in league/majors: 4th/5th, 14th in 1903 but 9 are outfielders, 6th t/16th t, 3rd t/7th t, 4th/9th, 7th/11th, 4th t/12th t, 4th/9th.
Best in league at 3rd: 1902, 1903, 1904. Best in majors: 1902.
Top 3 in league in outfield: 1907, 1913, 1914. 4th by one WS in 1909.

9. Alan Trammell (PHOM 2002) – With a prime/peak-centric ballot like mine, the missed games definitely hurt. Higher than I thought he would be.
Best SS in league: 1987, 1990. Best SS in majors: 1987, 1990
Top 18 (adj for # of teams) in league: 1980, 1983, 1984, 1986, 1987, 1988, 1990
Rank in league/majors: 17th t/NR, 7th t/15th t, 3rd t/9th t, 7th t/13th t, 1st/1st, 18th t/NR, 2nd t/6th t.

10. Vic Willis (PHOM 1942) - Best pitcher in NL two times, second best in NL two times. Almost even with McGinnity. 4 times one of the top 2 pitchers in the National League. Best in NL in 1899 and 1901, 2nd in 1902 and 1906. Top 10 most every other year.
   34. mulder & scully Posted: July 24, 2007 at 07:26 AM (#2452755)
11. Gavy Cravath (PHOM 1979) - All players, All times. All-Star 5 times by STATS and Win Shares. Top ten position player in NL in 1913 - 1917. 1st, 3rd, 1st, 6th, 7th. A top 10 player in either league from 1909-1911 while with Minneapolis. Great peak and prime - 7 times an all-star including 1910 and 1911. Unique career that was a result of his time/place.

12. George Burns (PHOM 1938) - Did everything well. Took a huge number of walks. Hit for good power. Never missed a game. Scored a lot of runs. Top 10 in NL in 1913, 1914, 1915, 1916, 1917, 1918, 1919, 1920. Rank in league/majors: 8th/20, 1st/4th, 7th/13th, 9th/17th, 3rd/5th, 3rd/8th, 2nd/4th, 7th/17th. 1921-23 in NL only: 14th, 18th, 15th.
Top 3 in NL outfield in 1913-15, 1917-19. Top 3 in majors in 1914, 17, 19.

13. Don Newcombe (PHOM 1994) - Credit for minor league years and Korea. Yes, the ERA+ were not that high, but the innings pitched were great. I give MiL credit for 1947, 1948, and 4 starts worth in 1949.
Top 5 starter in league in 1949, 1950, 1951, (Korea 1952, 1953), 1955, 1956, 1959
Rank in league/majors: 4th/9th t (1st t/5th t with MiL credit), 4th/8th, 5th/9th, 2nd/2nd, 1st/2nd, 5th/9th. Also, Korean War Credit for 1952 and 1953 at 22 WS and 23 WS gives 2 more top 4 years. For a total of 6 plus two fifths.

14. Wilbur Cooper (PHOM 1985) - An all-star 8 times. He and Bunning are very similar, but Bunning is slightly better in several ways.
Top 5 in league/majors: 1917, 1918, 1919, 1920, 1921, 1922, 1923, 1924. 4th/NR, 4th/NR, 5th/NR, 3rd/5th, 2nd/6th, 1st/3rd, 5th/NR, 2nd/5th. Plus a 6th in 1916.

15. Dave Stieb (PHOM 1998) – I looked at his case again. It was better than I thought. 4 times best starting pitcher in the AL and a 6 time league all-star. Best starter in majors in 1982 (tied), 1984, second best in 1983, tied for third in 1985, tied for sixth in 1981.
Could move up again.

16. Roger Bresnahan (PHOM 1987) - Excellent peak. Playing CF well is not a demerit. In front by a comfortable margin over Howard, Schang, Munson, Parrish, and Tenace. Was so much better than his white compatriots is a added factor. Bumped by Stieb.

17. Alejandro Ohms (PHOM 1964) – One catcher or 3 center fielders? (or Dave Stieb) Ohms is always at the edge of my ballot. Great consistent prime. One or two big years away from being an every-year ballot member.

18. Frank Chance (PHOM 1985) - Best peak and prime by a first baseman between Connor/ Brouthers and Gehrig. Top 10 in league: 1903, 1904, 1905, 1906, 1907. Rank in league/majors: 3rd/3rd t, 2nd/5th t, 8th t/15th t, 3rd/4th, 6th t/15th t. Best first baseman in league and majors in 1903-1907, league 1908.

19. Burleigh Grimes (PHOM 1961) – I like him better than Faber, Rixey, and Ruffing. Top 5 in league/majors: 1918, 1920, 1921, 1924, 1928, 1929. 2nd/5th t, 2nd/3rd t, 1st/4th t, 3rd t/NR, 2nd t/2nd t, 2nd t/NR.

20. Elston Howard (PHOM 1994): I kept overlooking him. I am giving more of a benefit of the doubt about his opporunity issues: Korea, race. Catcher bonus.
Top 10 in league in 1961, 1963, 1964
Rank in league/majors: 6th t/11th t, 3rd t/12th t, 3rd/8th.
Best catcher in league in 1961, 1963, 1964. In majors in 1961, 1963, 1964.
   35. mulder & scully Posted: July 24, 2007 at 07:28 AM (#2452756)
21. Jack Fournier (PHOM 1997): Noticed that I forgotten about him when he is given appropriate credit for 1917, 1918, and 1919. Remember he did have a 142 OPS+ for his career.
Top 10 in league in 1915, 1918 (minor league credit) 1921, 1923, 1924, 1925. Rank in league/majors: 5th t/7th t, (9th/17th), 5th t/14th t, 5th t/10th t, 3rd/4th, 3rd/6th.
Best first baseman in league: 1915, 1921, 1923, 1924, 1925. Best in majors: 1915, 1923, 1924, 1925.
I believe the MLEs for Fournier are too low because they give him OPS+ of 117, 137, and 122 at ages 27, 28, 29. Those would be his 8th/10th/and 11th highest OPS+ for his career. He may not have set career highs but I think they would have been more line with his career..

22. Graig Nettles (PHOM 1996): A great defensive 3rd basemen. Lacks the great years that so many 3rd basemen have in the 60s and 70s: Santo, Bando, Schmidt, Brett, Perez before he moved to 1st. Listed higher than my system says because I believe there is something my system is not catching about him.
Top 15 in league in 1971, 1972 (16th), 1974, 1975 (19th but 1 away from 15th), 1976, 1977, 1978.
Rank in league/majors: 6th t/15th t, 16th t/38th t, 13th t/31st t, 4th/9th, 11th t/20th t, 8th/16th.
Best 3b in league: 2nd in 1971 by 2, 2nd t in 1972 by 2, 1974 3rd by 3, 1975 2nd by 4, 2nd by 5 in 1976, 2nd by 4 in 1977, 2nd by 1 in 1978

23. Larry Doyle (PHOM 1987): Great hitter at second. Defense left something to be desired. McGraw usually knew what he was doing. Maybe he did here too? Top 10 in league in 1909, 1910, 1911, 1912, 1913, 1915. Rank in league/majors: 4th t/8th t, 7th/11th, 4th/9th, 3rd/9th, 9th/22nd, 2nd/5th.
Best second baseman in league: 1909 (t), 1910, 1911, 1912, 1915, 1916 (t), 1917. Second best in majors to Collins in 1909, 1911, 1912, 1915. Third best in majors behind Collins and Lajoie in 1910.

24. Frank Howard (PHOM 2001): Career was mismanaged by the Dodgers, but at that point they had more talent than they knew what to do with.
Top 12/15 in league in 1962, 1965, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971. Rank in league/majors: 12th t/18th t, 8th t/22nd t, 6th t/14th t, 2nd/2nd, 4th t/8th t, 6th t/10th t, 15th t/33rd t.
Top 3 outfielder in league: 1968, 1969, 1970. Top 3 in majors: 1968, 1970.

25. Dale Murphy (PHOM 2002): Member of the Wile E. Coyote School of Career Paths (Jimmy Ryan a charter member). CF is a tough position. There are the obvious: Cobb, Speaker, Charleston, Mantle, DiMaggio, Griffey, Snider, Stearnes, Torriente, and Hamilton (in some order) then what? In a knot of players at the edge of CFers. Definitely ahead of Carey and Ashburn though.
All-Star in NL: 1980, 1982, 1983, 1984, 1987. All-Star in majors: 1982, 1983, 1984, 1987
Top 15 in NL/majors: 1980, 1982, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1986, 1987
Rank: 4th/10th, 2nd/3rd, 2nd t/5th t, 2nd t/4th t, 5th/8th t, 15th t/NR, 6th t/9th t.

26. Luke Easter: The ultimate what-if player.

27. Herman Long (PHOM 1997): Another key player on the 1890s Bostonians. Fantastic fielder. Need to review his defensive numbers. Top 10 in league in 1891, 1892, 1893 . Rank in league/majors: 2nd/3rd t, 6th, 3rd
Best shortstop in league/majors: 1891, 1893. Best in league: 1889.

28. Dick Redding (PHOM 1975): Not enough shoulder seasons to go with the big 4 years. I pulled the trigger too soon on him. May need to do a recall election...

29. Al Rosen: What if...
Top 10 in league: 1950, 1951, 1952, 1953, 1954
Rank in league/majors: 4th t/7th t, 5th t/14th t, 3rd/5th, 1st/1st, 7th/14th.
Best third baseman in AL in 1950, 1952, 1953, 1954. Best in majors in 1950, 1952, 1953.

30. Ken Singleton: Slugging outfielder for Weaver’s Orioles. Career reputation is hindered by playing in a pitcher’s park in an average/slightly lower than average era for hitting.
Top 15 in league in: 1973, 1975, 1976, 1977, 1978, 1979, 1980,
Rank in league/majors: 9th t/13th t, 1st t/2nd t, 12th t/24th t, 2nd/2nd, 4th t/8th t, 3rd/5th, 7th t/12th t
Top 3 outfielder in league in 1975, 1977, 1978, 1979. In majors in 1975, 1977, 1979.
Could move up.

Not in top 30:
Andre Dawson: Take a walk. He played in a time when OFs (and Mike Schmidt) put up the big numbers in the NL. His prime and peak scores are not high enough.
Top 15 in league in: 1979, 1980, 1981, 1982, 1983
Rank in league/majors: 14th t/NR, 3rd/9th, 2nd/4th, 9th t/18th t, 7th t/13th t.
Top 3 OF in league in 1980, 1981. In majors in 1981.

Bob Johnson: The 11th or so best hitter (not player, hitter) in the AL in the 1930s. With the NeLer and NLers and pitchers included, he is not a top 30 player for a decade that already has the most HoMers. Everybody hit in the AL in the 1930s. Look how many top 100 OBP/SLG careers are centered in that decade from the AL.

Lenny Dykstra: Not enough everything though the 1993 Phillies were fun. Couple of great years.

Tim Wallach: About 58th among all 3rd basemen up to 2000.

Catch Up PHOM:
1994:
Ted Simmons
Don Newcombe
Elston Howard

1995
Mike Schmidt
Darrell Evans
Don Sutton

1996
Keith Hernandez
Graig Nettles
Rollie Fingers

1997:
Dwight Evans
Jack Fournier
Herman Long

1998:
Gary Carter
Bert Blyleven
Dave Stieb

1999:
George Brett
Robin Yount
Carlton Fisk

2000:
Goose Gossage
Nolan Ryan
Bus Clarkson

2001:
Dave Winfield
Lou Whitaker
Frank Howard

2002:
Ozzie Smith
Alan Trammell
Dale Murphy

Use This Ballot
   36. mulder & scully Posted: July 24, 2007 at 07:55 AM (#2452759)
Looking at my PHOM not HOM.
Pitcher: PHOM: Welch, Willis, Walters, Grimes, Redding, Cooper, Newscombe, and Stieb.
HOM/non-PHOM: Rixey, Ruffing, Pierce, Rube Foster, Faber, Griffith, and Waddell.

First Basemen:
PHOM: Chance and Fournier
HOM/non-PHOM: Terry, Sisler, and Beckley

Second Basemen:
PHOM: Doyle
HOM/non-PHOM: Doerr, Fox, Randolph

Third Basemen:
PHOM: Leach (1/2), Clarkson, Nettles
HOM/non-PHOM: Beckwith, Allen, and Boyer

Shortstop:
PHOM: Long
HOM/non-PHOM: Wallace and Sewell

Left Field:
PHOM: Jones, Burns, and Frank Howard
HOM/non-PHOM: Jackson and Medwick

Center Field:
PHOM: Browning, Duffy, Van Haltren, Ohms, Leach (1/2), and Murphy
HOM/non-PHOM: Carey, Pike, Ashburn, and Bell

Right Field:
PHOM: Cravath
HOM/non-PHOM: Rose

Catcher:
PHOM: Bresnahan and Elston Howard
HOM/non-PHOM: no one

Scales and Monroe will probably the next 2nd base backloggers to go in. Allen is still on the fence.
   37. mulder & scully Posted: July 24, 2007 at 07:56 AM (#2452761)
PS: See y'all in a week. Anyone else making it to the Con?
   38. Mike Webber Posted: July 24, 2007 at 06:24 PM (#2453142)
I'll be in St. Louis, so will Dimino.
   39. TomH Posted: July 24, 2007 at 06:29 PM (#2453149)
next year in Cleveland should be my first (only an 8 hr drive, and 09 in DC will be a hop-skip&jump;!)
   40. John Mazzeo Posted: July 24, 2007 at 06:45 PM (#2453190)
Kelly,

Not this year unfortunately. I planned to go but an Australia trip has messed that up.

I'm definitely planning to go next year, which will be my first visit since 2005. I'm rather peeved that I'm not going since I really want the SD exclusive Fin Fang Foom.
   41. Juan V Posted: July 24, 2007 at 08:01 PM (#2453311)
2002 ballot

Review of my methodology: I use two systems, in one I use OPS+, with adjustments for stolen bases and shape of OPS, compared to a positional baseline, which varies over time to catch spectrum shifts and stuff. For pitchers, this is RA+, with adjustments for high IP seasons and relief pitching. In the other, I simply use the uberstats, mostly BPro's WARP but I'm integrating Win Shares and some components of Dan's WARP into the analysis. For both systems, I use a JAWS-like formula to weigh peak and career.

These last few weeks have been dedicating to building my PHoM. While I was going through it, I realized that I was underrating pitcher (I was going to finish with less than 25% pitching in the PHoM), so some adjustments have been made to take care of this. Also, with all the players I have "rediscovered", using the old border for my consideration would have meant listing about 200 players, so I tightened things up a bit. Many Top 10 disclosure guys are left out, so in their case I will provide an approximate ranking.

2002 PHoMers are the big two newbie shortstops and Eppa Rixey. Date of PHoMation is provided between parentheses next to each player's name.

1-ALAN TRAMMELL (2002): So, why isn't he in the other Hall? A no brainer, comparable to Grich.

2-OZZIE SMITH (2002): He's pretty good too. He's like the "perfect storm" candidate for being underrated by raw OPS+. I think of him as Vern Stephens, without WW2 discounts and with a glove that's, well... Ozzie-esque.

3-LUIS TIANT (1988): The 114 ERA+ over a little less than 3500 innings is unimpressive, specially considering his contemporaries, but he really shined with unearned runs (roughly 8.5% of total runs allowed, compared to about 11.5% for his era).

4-GAVVY CRAVATH (1926): Clearly better than the borderline, Clarke and Flick seem to be good value comparables (maybe Winfield as well). With MLE credit, his peak is on the Kiner/Keller class, with the career that those two lack. So what if he took special advantage of his home park? He did it better than most, and his teams got value out of that.

5-BUS CLARKSON (1965): New MLEs incorporated. Glad to see the debate on him re-sparked, as we may be missing a gem here. In any case, he has well over 300 MLEed Win Shares, and an OPS+ around 120 from a SS/3B. The better part of his career, including his SS peak, took place before the Negro League scene got outta whack (although he was still well traveled). He was one of the reasons I decided to establish my new offense system, and under it he truly shines. I am discounting his 1940 a bit.

6-VIC WILLIS (1918): Almost 4000 innings at a 118 ERA+ put him pretty close to the average Hall of Fame starter (probably the average Hall of Meriter is a bit better). Seeing how this is squeezed into relatively few seasons, the result is a HOMable peak. Unearned runs are about average for his era, so they don't change his standing too much.

7-CHARLEY JONES (1926): Similar to Cravath, but he had a shorter career. A better defender, though.

8-ROGER BRESNAHAN (1929): His case has a good bit of context, as it depends on how you account for the brutal conditions for catchers of his time. I like the OBP-heavy production. Should be the favorite candidate of "gap-fillers", along with Clarkson.

9-DAVE STIEB (2000): Debuts on my ballot thanks to the aforementioned pitching adjustment. Excellent peak, with just enough career to carry it.

10-ALEJANDRO OMS (1942): While the hitting value isn't as much as I once thought, there's too many Win Shares here to ignore. They give him a long career, with a considerable peak as well.

11-DAVID CONCEPCIÓN (1995): Averagish-bat, All-Time defense, and a really low baseline to compare him against. Clearly, my favorite among all the middle infielders with a similar profile. I believe there is a "real" reason why shortstops of his time were so bad with the bat, giving him real value.

12-TONY LAZZERI (1945): My old teddy bear (although, given my relatively short time voting, does it qualify him as "old"?). Where's the support for a 120 OPS+ second baseman? Was the defense really that bad (and why it doesn't show up on the uberstats, which put him clearly north of Larry Doyle territory)? Is my estimation of the baseline for 1930s second basemen that far off?

13-FRED DUNLAP (1930): Another "unearthed" candidate. Even with an UA discount, that 1884 season was monstrous.

14-BEN TAYLOR (1985): Comparable to Will Clark, but with a longer career and, because of the defensive demands of the position at his time, a lower baseline for comparision.

15-TONY PEREZ (1995): Most of his best offensive years were as a 3B, thus raising his peak to the level where it can be "carried" by his career.
   42. Juan V Posted: July 24, 2007 at 08:14 PM (#2453326)
Best of the rest

16-Jack Quinn (1996)
17-Dale Murphy (2001)
18-Bob Johnson (1996)
19-Lefty Gomez (1996)
20-Eddie Cicotte (1997)
21-Wally Schang (1997)
22-Dagoberto Campaneris
23-Toby Harrah
24-Virgil Trucks
25-Wally Berger
26-Mike Tiernan
27-Rick Reuschel
28-George Scales
29-John McGraw
30-Jimmy Ryan
31-Tony Mullane
32-Mickey Welch
33-Bobby Avila
34-Bob Elliott
35-Buzz Arlett
36-Vern Stephens
37-Marvin Williams
38-Urban Shocker
39-Frank Tanana
40-Cesar Cedeño
41-Ken Singleton
42-PETE BROWNING: When you think about it, he's equivalent to a poor-fielding, short career corner outfielder with a 140ish OPS+. His peak is still good, but he needs more.
43-Jim McCormick
44-Reggie Smith
45-Dave Bancroft
46-Larry Parrish
47-ANDRE DAWSON: Wow, that low OBP takes a lot of air out of his candidacy. I'm guessing that, if he were at least league average in this regard, he would be at least in the PHoM queue.
48-Ron Cey
49-Carlos Moran
50-Mel Harder
51-Tommy Bridges
52-Waite Hoyt

CANNONBALL DICK REDDING: I re-ran him once again and, while I would still like more info if possible, I'm relatively confident with where I'm ranking him. Which is mid-60s.

HUGH DUFFY: Barely breaks my top 100. His candidacy seems to be an product of Win Shares, and I'm not inclined to credit him for his teams overperforming Pythagoras like WS does. By most other measures, he doesn't have Van Haltren's career value nor Ryan's peak-prime.
   43. Paul Wendt Posted: July 24, 2007 at 09:18 PM (#2453449)
#41
These last few weeks have been dedicating to building my PHoM. While I was going through it, I realized that I was underrating pitcher (I was going to finish with less than 25% pitching in the PHoM), so some adjustments have been made to take care of this.

#42
Best of the rest
16-Jack Quinn (1996)
17-Dale Murphy (2001)
18-Bob Johnson (1996)
19-Lefty Gomez (1996)
20-Eddie Cicotte (1997)


Looks like Juan V assessed positional balance and tweaked the system in PHOM year 1996. With a boost for pitching, Quinn, Gomez, and Cicotte bubbled to the top. He is among the best friends of all three although I'm sure there are others PHOMs with more pitchers.
   44. Juan V Posted: July 24, 2007 at 10:16 PM (#2453526)
Actually, I assessed this for the '80s backlog run. It's just that the first beneficiaries were guys who are already in the HOM, like Pud Galvin and Wes Ferrell.

Rixey is the 63rd pitcher to enter my PHOM, a number which I believe compares well to 60 or 61 in the actual HOM (after the results of this election, assuming Tram and Ozzie are locks).
   45. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: July 25, 2007 at 04:12 AM (#2454353)
Hopefully I'll see some of you at the convention this week!

My ballot:

Since some people asked us to include what we consider . . . I try to look at it all. I'm a career voter mostly - not because I have any bias towards it, but just because the numbers (and every study I've ever seen) tell me that peaks are overrated and 5+5 is only about 10-15% less valuable than 10+0.

I give full war credit, and I think it's a major mistake not to when comparing players across eras. My biggest regret on this project is that we didn't require all voters to give war credit like we did with Negro League credit. I see no difference, both were a circumstance of the player's birthday that was beyond his control. I also follow similar philosophy on strikes. I think it's a cop out to say we don't know so it's a zero. If a guy was a 25 WS a year player before and after the war, a zero is a much bigger mistake than giving him three 25s. As far as injury you just credit a guy based on his playing time before and after the war. There's no reason to assume he would have been any more (or less) injury prone during those years.

I'll give minor league credit for players trapped - once they've had a 'here I am, let me play!' season.

Of late I've been much more hands on in rating the pitchers than the position players. I'm very confident in my pitcher rankings. My position player rankings I'm less confident in, but there are only so many hours in the day, and because of that you'll see more position players moving around from week to week than pitchers.

1. Alan Trammell SS (n/e) - For an explanation of why I like Trammell better than Ozzie, see this article. Or this one.

2. Ozzie Smith SS (n/e) - He wasn't as good as most think, but he was still damn good.

3. Rick Reuschel SP (3) - This ranking surprises me a great deal. It's one thing to 'discover' an Ezra Sutton (I mean as a group, not that I discovered him first or anything) who played 130 years ago. But Rick Reuschel was there, right before my very eyes. He pitched in the World Series for my favorite team when I was turning 9 years old. And I never had a clue he was this good.

My Pennants Added system, which account for fielding support, parks, bullpen support, etc.; shows him as the #30 pitcher eligible, right behind Dazzy Vance, Ed Walsh and Amos Rusie, and ahead of Jim Bunning, Sandy Koufax and Juan Marichal.

He isn't peakless either. His 1977 was every bit as valuable as Bunning's 1966. Bunning definitely has him beat in years 2-5, but Reuschel makes it up with more quality in the back end. I get them essentially equal, Reuschel was a little better inning for inning, Bunning had a higher peak, but in the end they even out. I have Reuschel with a 115 DRA+ over 3745 tIP, Bunning was 113 over 3739 tIP. This is where I would have ranked Bunning, who sailed into the Hall of Merit, I have no issue putting Reuschel here.

Even when I take my numbers, but filter them through a Bill James-type NHBA scoring system (that heavily focuses on peak), Reuschel still comes out as the #46 starter eligible, in a group with guys like Jim Palmer, Noodles Hahn, Eddie Rommel, Tex Hughson, Clark Griffith and Whitey Ford. Hahn, Rommel and Hughson all had very nice peaks.

Using a JAWS scoring system, he comes out as the #35 starter, in a group with Wes Ferrell, Jack Quinn, Palmer, Stan Coveleski, Red Faber and Urban Shocker.

I am saying that Reuschel was every bit as good as the Jims, Palmer and Bunning. The only difference between Palmer and Reuschel is park and defense. Reuschel's 1977 was better than any season Palmer had. Palmer, like Bunning was better than Reuschel in the 2-5 best seasons, but by less than a win a year, and over the course of their careers, Reuschel was better, 115 DRA+ to Palmer's 113 (in a similar number of innings, Palmer had 3781 tIP. He had the one great year, and was very good from 1973-81 and 1985, 1987-89. That's a record that not a lot of pitchers can match.

4. Jack Quinn SP (4) - I'm giving him credit for 1916-18 where he was pitching (quite well) in the PCL after the Federal League went belly-up. He gets a big leverage bonus for his nearly 800 IP of relief work at a LI of 1.26. Without any PCL credit I still have him between Bridges and Grimes.

5. Tommy John SP (6) - Tons of career value. I would probably be sick to my stomach if Jim Kaat (who did very well in the Veteran's Committee balloting this year) got in and John did not. On the surface (career W-L) they appear similar, but when you adjust for everything, they aren't close. I have John as similar to, but better than Burleigh Grimes - about 800 more translated IP, at a 106 rate instead of a 104 rate. That's more than enough to offset Grimes peak edge. I get John somewhere between Eppa Rixey/Red Faber and Grimes on the continuum. He's over the in/out line for me. I also give no extra credit for his poineering the surgery - someone had to be first.

6. Urban Shocker SP (7) - Vaulted in 1981, with 1918 war credit (he was having a great year), and an adjustment for the AL being much better than the NL during his time. He was a great pitcher, peak guys should really look closer at him. He'd be a no brainer without his illness, which should not impact a peak vote.

7. Tommy Bridges SP (8) - Unspectacular peak (although he would have won the 1936 AL Cy Young Award if it had been invented), but a lot of career value. War credit helps nudge him above Trout and Leonard. He could obviously still pitch when he left for the war, and was still good when he returned for a short time. I give him 2 years of credit at his 1941-43 level.

8. Gavy Cravath RF (9) - Either he was a freak of nature, or there's a lot missing. I vote for the latter. Check out his thread for deeper discussion of the specifics, including a great analysis from Gadfly. He's the kind of guy we were hoping to catch when we started this project.

9. Pie Traynor 3B (10) - The more I look, the more I think we missed on this one. He gets another bump this week. I don't agree with rating Boyer above him. Traynor far outhit his 3B peers relative to Boyer and his.

10. Thurman Munson C (11) - Better than I realized - just a hair behind Freehan. Better career D, better career O, but Freehan played more and had the higher peak. Very, very close.

11. Ben Taylor 1B (12) - Consider me convinced that he was really was a great hitter. I was underrating him.

12. Dave Stieb SP (13) - The best pitcher in baseball between Seaver's demise and Clemens' rise (1982-85). He got a very nice peak, a decent length career (3070.3 tIP). Very similar to Bridges/Pierce/Walters. Walters had the better 'best-year' but I think Stieb had more 'very good' years and beats him by a hair.

13. Dave Concepcion SS (14) - Better than I realized, and was really hurt by the 1981 strike, which occurred during his best season (and a season where the Reds had the best record in baseball, but missed the playoffs). Still no Trammell or Ozzie, but a very good player indeed. We could do worse than induct him.

14. Andre Dawson CF/RF (n/e) - See his thread for more detailed comments. Essentially I think there's enough of a combination of peak/career (especially once full credit is given for 1981) to push him onto the ballot. I'm shocked to realize that Randolph was the better player, as both were among my handful of favorite players growing up.

15. Wally Schang C (15) - Basically the best MLB catcher between Bennett and Cochrane/Hartnett. As valuable a hitter as Campanella or Bennett. Defense was questionable.
   46. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: July 25, 2007 at 04:13 AM (#2454355)
Honorable Mention:

16. Bert Campaneris (16) - He slipped off my radar and he shouldn't have. .470 OWP, in an era where the average SS was at .372. Long (9625 PA) career as well, and a good fielder (62 FRAA). System says to rank him ahead of Concepcion pretty clearly, but I haven't been able to bring myself to do it just yet.

17. Graig Nettles (17) - Vacuum cleaner at 3B, one HR title, another runner-up. He was a better hitter than Brooksy, almost his equal with the glove. Almost as long of a career, and while he wasn't as good as Robinson, Brooks had plenty of room to spare. I had him too high, but still think he belongs.

18. Rusty Staub RF (18) - Finally pushed him higher, I like career candidates with nice peaks, and from 1967-71 Staub was one of the best players in baseball. Looking at Jose Cruz made me realize I had Staub way too low.

19. Dave Bancroft SS (19) - Let's see. You've got a SS with a .498 OWP, during an era where the average SS has a .414 OWP. He's also one of the 15 most valuable defensive shortstops in history to this point. He had a reasonably long career as well, though his in-season durability wasn't great. Think that's a valuable player? I do.

20. Buddy Bell 3B (20) - Just a hair behind Nettles - arguably as good as fielder (though about a season less at 3B) and a hair behind as a hitter also. Who realized at the time that he was one of the best players in the game from 1980-82?

21. Darrell Porter C (21) - A lot higher than I thought he'd be. His 1979 was an MVP caliber season - of course it came in the one year between 1977-81 that the Royals didn't make the playoffs, so he finished 9th behind guys like Mike Flanagan and Gorman Thomas. As a catcher, in 679 PA, he had as good of an offensive season as the LF/DH that won the award. I could see ranking him almost as high as Freehan. I wish I'd looked at this sooner - I'd like to see him get the close look that Ron Cey got. Porter was definitely a better player.

22. Charley Jones LF (22) - A superstar of the early NL/AA. I give full credit for his contract debacle / blacklisting, which I consider a product of his timeframe, and not something that would hinder any modern player. I still think he was great, but I think I'd been giving him a little too much credit for his AA seasons.

23. Jim Fregosi SS (23) - I like middle infielders that can hit.

24. Don Newcombe SP (24) - Gets color-line and Korea credit. Moving up this week after a few tweaks in the system adjusting for fielding behind him.

25. Bucky Walters SP (25) - Big years, good hitter for a pitcher, career kind of short though. Basically tied with Newcombe.

26. Ken Singleton RF (26) - I've got him as very similar to Henrich. Singleton lasted longer (ever after accounting for the war), but Henrich was a much better fielder. Henrich had more power and Singleton more OBP. But when you add it all up, their overall value was quite similar.

27. Burleigh Grimes SP (27) - Faced pretty steep competition (.520 RSI), so his 256-226 RSI and 107 ERA+ understates his record somewhat. I wouldn't be against his election at this point - his hitting puts him over the top. The updated fielding adjustments in WARP drop him a little in the rankings.

28. Phil Rizzuto SS (28) - Lost 3 prime years to WWII. Great defense, and a huge year in 1950 also.

29. Norm Cash 1B (29) - Wow, history books, where have you been hiding this guy? .671 career OWP! +109 fielding runs! That puts his defense at a level with Roger Connor, George Kelly and Frank McCormick among the all-time greats. He has more FRAA than Vic Power, for example.

30. Roger Bresnahan C/OF (30) - Great hitter / catcher = tough combination to overlook.

31. Dave Parker (31) - I wrote a paper in college advocating him for the Hall of Fame, but now I realize that was a mistake. He just wasn't good enough when he was good to offset 1980-84.

32. Tommy Henrich RF (32) - Very underrated, gets a ton of war credit.


Mandatory comments:

Dick Redding - he was good, but I think we are overrating him. I can't see how he's better than Grimes.

Pete Browning - would be by far our biggest mistake. Hack Wilson would be an equivalent electee. Please don't do this. Stieb or Charley Jones would be light years better as choices.

Bob Johnson - He's in the mix - but slides down when you deflate his numbers from WWII.

Hugh Duffy - I don't really see it. He had one big year, one fairly big year, and was pretty good, but it's only an 11 year career (as a regular), and I just don't see what makes him stand out. I've always like Ryan and Van Haltren better.

Tony Perez - Not mandatory this time, but he'll be back soon, so I'll leave the comment. In my top 50, but I don't see how anyone can vote for him over Ben Taylor.

Newbie:

Tim Wallach - Go Expos!
   47. TomH Posted: July 25, 2007 at 03:27 PM (#2454679)
2002 Ballot
Review of Hanrahan’s value system: career value with a fairly high replacement level (slightly below average). Something like RCAP adjusted for defense and league strength, or WARP3 minus 2.5 wins per full year, or WS minus 11 per year adjusted for league quality. Some credit for pitcher “peak”, very little for hitters. Some subjective estimating of ability across time and place. I rank the long primes higher than most of us.

I had surreal dream, that 5 years from now, we would go through some incredible conflagration week of sports news. A coach killed by a line drive. The most worshipped baseball record about to be broken. An star athlete involved in a gruesomely cruel illegal activity. A man with a 1-shot lead on the 18th hole of a golf major putting TWO balls in the water... and still winning. And to top it off, maybe the biggest of all, the biggest betting scandal in sports since 1919. Well, it was only a weird dream.

(x) indicates where I voted for them last ballot
[y] indicates their consensus rank from last ballot

1- Alan Trammell {new}
A great hitting, fine fielding shortstop, long career shortstop.
2- Ozzie Smith {new}
Best defender ever. Long career. Decent offense for a SS.
I believe, and support the notion, that Ozzie and Alan are the last shortstop we will elect for a long time.
3- John McGraw (3) [18]
Dominant 9 year prime. Provided huge advantage over every other MLB team at third base.
4- Roger Bresnahan (5) [8]
Best MLB catcher of his era, the era before, & the era after. Position flexibility not a minus.
5- Bucky Walters (8) [11]
Faced strong opponents, pitched real well, hit real well too.
6- Bob Johnson (6) [9]
Very good long prime; clearly better over a dozen year stretch than our other backlog OFers. One very good MinorLg year of credit also.
7- Reggie Smith (7) [23]
Too fragile for peak (big seasons) voters, not long enough career for career voters. But guys, he won lots of games for his teams. Lots. More than all of the men below him.
8- George Van Haltren (9) [16]
Spent three years as primarily a pitcher. And is still 33rd all-time in runs scored with over 1600.
9- Frank Chance (10) [54]
A great player on great teams. <u>As good a hitter as Pete Browning.</u>.
10- Bill Monroe (11) [47]
Dominant in his day. New data confirm my earlier placement; neither raising nor lowering.
11- Dick Redding (12) [7]
Great pitcher according to the anecdotes. Less great by MLEs. I split the difference.
12- Dave Stieb (15) [5]
Best at a time when it was tough to dominate.
13- Luis Tiant (14) [19]
Small bonuses for few unearned runs and post-season wins. Small discount for arriving in those luvly-to-pitch 60s.
14- Andre Dawson {new}
I was going to plunk him in the mid-20s, but multiple gold gloves and other evidence make me think that BPro’s take on his D is understated. Bonus credit for strike-shortened ’81 gets him on, and he could move up.
15- Kirrrrbeeeeee PUCKETT! (13) [12]
In any other park besides the HHHdome, he was merely very good. However, post-season credit gets him on my ballot.

Rick Reuschel keeps winding up at #16 – every week bumped by some newbie.

Returning top 10 disclosure:

Hugh Duffy [10] – Win Shares convicted of fibbing to the grand jury jn the case of Duffy.

Charley Jones [6] – barely behind Orlando Cepeda, who is not polling well with us.

Pete Browning [4] – cover up his seasons before age 25, when he was in a very weak AA, and he looks like Babe Herman. Do we want to elect a guy based on dominating a minor league? Van Haltren had as good an offensive career from age 25 on, and was better with the glove.

Dan R Disclosures :)
Aparicio, Pesky, Fregosi, Stephens, Maranville, Bancroft, Aparicio, all in my top 40 to 100. Bus Clarkson is #20, Davey C is 30 to 35. The HoM is **not** short on shortstops.
   48. Mike Green Posted: July 25, 2007 at 03:36 PM (#2454688)
I've put a comment on the issue offensive performance vs. other shortstops in evaluating Campaneris, Bancroft et. al. in the ballot discussion thread.
   49. DL from MN Posted: July 25, 2007 at 04:00 PM (#2454714)
"last shortstop we will elect for a long time"

So either you think 5 years is a long time, you think Ripken is a 3B or you don't support Cal Ripken Jr. I don't think you thought through your statement.

"13- Luis Tiant (14) [19]
Small bonuses for few unearned runs and post-season wins. Small discount for arriving in those luvly-to-pitch 60s."

Should get a small boost for pitching in Fenway park (park factor ranging from 106 to 111). Even his years in Cleveland were in a neutral park.
   50. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: July 25, 2007 at 04:13 PM (#2454739)
TomH--Aparicio isn't anywhere near electable, even for me, and Fregosi/Maranville/Stephens also fall short in my book. You forgot to mention Rizzuto and Campaneris. :) That said, I like your ballot. Anything with McGraw at #3 plus Reggie Smith and Bresnahan gets my stamp of approval.
   51. DanG Posted: July 25, 2007 at 06:14 PM (#2454936)
My “system”? Emphasizes prime and career; give me steady production over a fluke year or two or three. Seeing no need to reinvent the wheel, I look at win shares and WARP and rely on the interpretations of these by other analysts. IMO, our group overvalues peak; I like guys who play. There’s also a tendency here to cut and run from well-seasoned candidates. Finally, unlike Bill James and most voters I don’t give any “consecutive-seasons” bonus; value is value.

My ballot, Teddy Bears and all. My #1, #2 and #13 were elected. Ozzie and Tram are the shorts-toppers in 2002; if Dawson is elected, it won’t be in a “walk”. In 2003, Murray and Sandberg are shoo-ins; Lee Smith and Brett Butler will get looked at. In 2004 it’s Molitor, Eckersley and a backlogger. It’s Boggs and a backlog bonanza in 2005.

1) Ozzie Smith – Most analysis give him a slight edge over Tram.

2) Alan Trammell – Easy #2 on this ballot.

3) Tony Perez (3,3,5) – Even-steven with Staub in win shares, but drubs Rusty in WARP3; in 12-year weighted prime Perez beats him 8.41 to 7.43. Career lovers delight with enough peak to make him great. <u>Firstbasmen with most Total Bases over a 15-year period, 1949-98</u>:

1977-91 4181 E. Murray
1967-81 3915 T.Perez
1959-73 3810 H. Killebrew
1972-86 3800 S. Garvey
1958-72 3684 O. Cepeda
1966-80 3430 L. May
1973-87 3400 C. Cooper
1963-77 3379 D. Allen
1973-87 3375 B. Buckner
1963-77 3360 W. McCovey

4) George Van Haltren (4,4,6) – We’ve now elected 15 players who were behind him in 1972. Huh? Were we so wrong about him for 50+ elections? No, we’re wrong now. Now in his 94th year eligible. Pennants Added study shows him well. He excelled in the contraction years 1892-1900; he had high SB totals (usually 35-40 in his prime years), which I believe was more important pre-1920; he was a mainly a centerfielder (~71.7% of his non-pitching games vs. ~47.6% for Ryan and 61.5% for Wynn), Ryan (and Duffy) actually played more corner outfield. Players with <u>2900 times on base 1889-1901: </u>
1—3392 B. Hamilton
2—3134 G. Van Haltren
3—3046 J. Burkett
4—3043 E. Delahanty

Players with <u>most stolen bases 1891-1900: </u>
1—660 B. Hamilton
2—443 G. Van Haltren
3—416 H. Duffy

One non-HoMer here, Players with <u>3400 times on base 1871-1909</u>:
1—4433 C. Anson
2—3954 J. Burkett
3—3729 J. Beckley
4—3661 B. Dahlen
5—3605 G. Davis
6—3579 W. Keeler
7—3507 R. Connor
8—3438 G. Van Haltren
9—3434 B. Hamilton
10—3431 E. Delahanty

5) Andre Dawson – My kind of candidate, multi-dimensional skills and longevity. Adjusting 1981 gives him peak WS from 1980-83 of 29-35-26-28. Also, 352 WS for career adjusting for 1981, 94-95 strikes. WARP3 from 1980-83: 9.0-10.5-9.0-7.9. Also, 108.8 for career.

6) Tommy Leach (5,5,7) – After his highest finish since 1945 in 1997, he held his position in the backlog; his candidacy’s “not dead yet”. I think it’s what Bill James once said, that all-around players get overlooked, while specialists get overrated; voters like that one area of dominance. Modern comp to, but just a bit behind, Craig Biggio, he could beat you in many ways. Longevity, defense and speed, more important in that era, rate him above Groh. Versatility is a plus; it should not be assumed that any typical thirdbaseman of the era could have successfully handled CF. Had a better peak than Bobby Wallace, but his career was a couple years shorter and he had just a little less defensive value. Among OFers with 750 games 1905-14, he is 2nd in PO/G (behind Speaker) and 2nd in FA (behind Clarke). Players with 1300 or more RBI plus Runs Scored, 1902-11:
1—1883 H. Wagner
2—1726 S. Crawford
3—1429 T. Leach
4—1408 N. Lajoie
5—1392 H. Davis
6—1343 F. Clarke
<u>Leaders in Total Bases, 1901-10</u>:
1—2606 H. Wagner
2—2527 S. Crawford
3—2410 N. Lajoie
4—2128 H. Davis
5—2052 C. Seymour
6—1973 T. Leach
7—1933 F. Clarke
8—1911 J. Sheckard
9—1823 G. Beaumont
10—1783 B. Wallace

Not bad for a “glove”.

7) Burleigh Grimes (6,6,8) – Comparable to E. Wynn. Has the heft I like in a career. Pitchers with <u>3800+ IP, 1916-75</u>. The top ten are all HoMers, nearly:

1—5244 W. Spahn
2—4689 R. Roberts
3—4564 E. Wynn
4—4344 R. Ruffing

5—4180 B. Grimes
6—4161 T. Lyons
7—3941 L. Grove
8—3897 E. Rixey
9—3884 B. Gibson
10—3827 B. Feller


8) Rusty Staub (7,7,9) – He’s the Grimes of position players. Ranks #36 all-time in Times On Base; #59 in Total Bases, just ahead of some guy named Jake. Edges Brock in win shares, blows him away in WARP3. Players with <u>OBP of .380+, 1967-76, 3500+ PA</u>:
1—.407 J. Morgan
2—.399 C. Yastrzemski
3—.397 W. McCovey
4—.394 P. Rose
5—.392 K. Singleton
6—.389 F. Robinson
7—.386 R. Carew
8—.386 R. Staub
9—.385 H. Killebrew
10—.381 D. Allen

9) Jimmy Ryan (8,9,11) – Browning had one skill; Ryan could do it all. As a SNT he finished ahead of seven HoMers; the order in the teens was Duffy-Ryan-GVH-Beckley. Usually trailing those guys were Caruthers-Pearce-Pike-Jennings-Griffith-Childs. <u>Most extra-base hits, ten-year period 1876-1903</u>:
632 1893-02 E. Delahanty
550 1887-96 S. Thompson
549 1886-95 R. Connor
542 1883-92 D. Brouthers
525 1883-92 H. Stovey
487 1890-99 J. Beckley
481 1893-02 J. Kelley
458 1888-97 J. Ryan
453 1888-97 M. Tiernan
<u>Most outfielder Assists, 1876-1918</u>
1—375 J. Ryan
2—348 G. VanHaltren
3—348 Tom Brown
4—307 J. Sheckard
5—289 O. Shaffer
6—285 K. Kelly
7—283 S. Thompson

10) Graig Nettles (9,10,12) – Another looonggg career 1970’s star; Darrell Evans lite. James slots him behind Boyer, ahead of Traynor, which seems about right. For the 1970’s he was #6 in HR and #10 in RBI, not bad for a “glove”. I think he still holds the AL record for HR at 3B; 2nd all-time in games at 3B.

11) Roger Bresnahan (10,8,10) – A couple more voters now (15) have high regard for The Duke of Tralee, as he slipped back into the top ten finishers. Versatility should be a bonus, not a demerit. How many other catchers could have been pulled out from behind the plate to be an all-star in centerfield? Could move higher, but I really like guys who play. Played half his teams’ games in only 11 seasons, averaging 71% of team games in those years. Still, his offensive production towers over other catchers of his era, so he deserves a vote. Defense only C+. <u>Catchers with 100 OPS+, 1876-1930 (minimum 3500 PA)</u>:
1—130 B. Ewing
2—126 R. Bresnahan
3—118 C. Bennett
4—117 J. Clements
4—117 W. Schang
6—101 D. McGuire
7—100 J. Kling
Players with <u>OBP over .390, 1903-14, 3100+ PA</u>:
1—.424 T. Cobb
2—.420 E. Collins
3—.413 T. Speaker
4—.401 R. Bresnahan
5—.400 H. Wagner
6—.399 F. Chance
7—.396 R. Thomas

12) Rabbit Maranville (11,12,14) – Every career voter should have him on their radar. WARP1 is 133.5, even better than Beckley’s 116.8 (high of 8.1). That includes four years better than 10.0. Plus he’s due nearly a year of war credit, which adds another 8.0 WARP1. Career WARP3 is 101.1, just in HoMer country. Career win shares, with war credit and adjusted to 162 games, is 339, including 124 in his top five seasons.

13) Wally Schang (12,13,15,) – There’s not a dime’s worth of difference between him and Bresnahan, so he’s still on the radar. Players with <u>OBP of .390+, 1915-29, 5600+ PA</u>:
1—.475 B. Ruth
2—.439 T. Cobb
3—.436 R. Hornsby
4—.435 T. Speaker
5—.427 E. Collins
6—.412 H. Heilmann
7—.399 J. Sewell
8—.398 W. Schang
9—.393 K. Williams

14) Gavy Cravath (14,15,--) – Third time on ballot. Yeah, he has problems, but they all do. Had a long career, was a regular player into his late 30’s. And he had a high peak. What more do you need? Circumstances beyond his control kept him out of MLB for many years.

15) Alejandro Oms (15,--,--) – Second time on ballot. MLEs show OPS+ of 125 in +9000 PA. Win shares 340. Those are obvious HoMer numbers for a CF. Only my hatred of Negro leaguers has made him wait this long. Seriously, even my hyper-skeptical eye has to cave at some point.

Top tenners off ballot:

If we elect Browning it will be proof of mistakes in the design of our system; if a guy who’s liked by about a third of the electorate, and ranked +50 by another third, can make it in, it isn’t right. Nice peak in a very weak league. I don’t believe that fielding value is at all well measured pre-1893, so I’m very wary of electing any more bats from that era.

Stieb seems to be getting a major “position shortage” boost. His case is based on his peak 1981-85. But there actually were many HoMers pitching regularly then: Carlton, Ryan, Blyleven, Seaver, Sutton, Niekro, Gossage, Fingers and maybe Eckersley.

Charley Jones is Pete Browning lite.

Redding is a good candidate if you put total faith in the translations showing a stratospheric peak.

Bob Johnson looks just like a lot of other guys. Career not that long, peak not that high, just a bat.

Hugh Duffy used to get a ballot spot. Career a bit short, home park greatly inflated offense, not sold on him as A+ defender, GVH and Ryan are better, gets “leadoff hitter boost” from WS. Still, he’s way better than Browning, I wouldn’t cry if he gets in.
   52. TomH Posted: July 25, 2007 at 06:28 PM (#2454957)
How did I miss Rizzuto? Musta been 'cause there were so many other SS names. Yes, he's actually in my 40s.

re: Ripken - I thought Cal became eligible in 2008 'real time', which is a ways away. If I'm off one year, obviously my statement is incorrect.
   53. jimd Posted: July 25, 2007 at 06:42 PM (#2454972)
I would probably be sick to my stomach if Jim Kaat (who did very well in the Veteran's Committee balloting this year) got in and John did not.

Joe, you and I disagree (a lot) on Kaat and John, and I know why that is so, so it's OK.

I'm very curious how Frank Tanana rates in your system. I see him as similar to John, but much better (he has an excellent peak, for one thing). More WARP1 in less IP, which should work to his benefit with your higher replacement level.
   54. yest Posted: July 26, 2007 at 01:18 AM (#2455572)
Ah - so karlmagnus must be getting jealous of all the consensus-outlier attention that yest has been getting. For the rest of you - you know better than to take karl's word on Ozzie's offense, right? You'll figure it out for yourself.


He's still going to lose this week due to Trammall missing my ballot (remember he's a shortstop)

Right Field:
HOM/non-PHOM: Rose


I'm glad I'm not the only one who left him out
the one differance I between my pHoM and the HoM which I'm sure evreyone understands
   55. Rick A. Posted: July 26, 2007 at 03:05 AM (#2455784)
PHOM
Alan Trammell
Ozzie Smith
Max Carey

I tend to lean towards peak/prime, although a pure career candidate can sneak through at an important defensive position. I'm an anti-timeline, pennant-is-a-pennant voter. I give credit for wars, holdouts, strikes, blacklisting and players being in the minors when they're clearly MLB caliber, as well as NEL credit. I'm solidly in the WS camp, although I'll also look at OPS+, ERA+, IP, PA and ranking among contemporaries at their position. I do think that WS does miss on occasion, and I give a subjective bump to candidates who I think WS is off on.

2002 Ballot
1. Charley Jones – Truly great hitter who missed 2 years in his prime. Elected PHOM in 1921.
2. Pete Browning – Great hitter. Elected PHOM in 1925
3. Vic Willis – Very good pitcher. I like him better than Waddell. Elected PHOM in 1945.
4. Dick Redding –Elected PHOM in 1968
5. Hugh Duffy – Better than Van Haltren and Ryan, Elected PHOM in 1970
6. Burleigh Grimes – Higher peak than Rixey. Elected PHOM in 1961
7. Dave Stieb - Jumps up in reevaluation this year. Slightly better than Walters. Elected PHOM in 2000.
8. Bucky Walters Very high peak. Elected PHOM in 1972
9. Alejandro Oms – Jumps up some on this ballot. Elected PHOM in 1978.
10. Alan Trammell - Elected PHOM in 2002.
11. Ed Williamson – I’ll take him over Boyer. Elected PHOM in 1958
12. Ken Singleton – Jumps onto ballot after I adjust for the DH. Elected PHOM in 1997.
13. Dizzy Dean – Short career, but high peak. Koufax lite. Elected PHOM in 1973.
14. Ozzie Smith – I tend to have long career - low peak – great defensive players lower than most of the voters. That being said, Smith is the best of those kind of players and makes my ballot. Players of this kind are also starting to enter my PHOM, as seen by Smith and Max Carey this year. Cool Papa Bell made my PHOM a few years ago, and Brooks Robinson, Richie Ashburn and Phil Rizzuto are also close to my PHOM.
15. Elston Howard – Underrated. Elected PHOM in 1985

Required Disclosures
Roger Bresnahan In my PHOM and just misses my ballot.
Bob Johnson Very good player with a really good prime, but I'd like either a great peak or a long career from a leftfielder.

New Candidates
Andre Dawson Behind Murphy, Puckett, R Smith, Staub, Bonds, Clark and Parker. Good player, but that's just too many people.

Off the ballot
16-20 Cravath,Sutter,Munson,Bresnahan,Newcombe
21-25 Carey,Leach,(DwEvans),(Rixey),Easter
26-30 Bond,Rosen,(BRobinson),(Ashburn),Rizzuto
31-35 (Medwick),FJones,Parrish,Matlock,Mays
36-40 Monroe,Nettles,Murphy,(DSutton),(Gordon)
41-45 Puckett,WCooper,Mattingly,Elliott,Johnson
46-50 Perez,(Terry),Traynor,(Randolph),(Fox)
51-55 (Boyer),(Faber),Scales,Shocker,Clarkson
56-60 (Doerr),HSmith,FHoward,Bando,MWilliams
61-65 Bell,Doyle,Cey,HWilson,Van Haltren
66-70 Ryan,Schang,McGraw,Bancroft,(Sewell)
71-75 AWilson,RSmith,Cepeda,Stephens,(Pierce)
76-80 Poles,Winters,Mullane,ACooper,DiMaggio
81-85 Berger,Burns,Lynn,Taylor,Parker
86-90 Tiernan,Clark,(Thompson),JRice,Pinson
91-94 Cedeno,Pesky,Chance,Brock,Staub
95-100 Cash,Fournier,Bonds,Lundy,McCormick
   56. DavidFoss Posted: July 26, 2007 at 02:19 PM (#2456134)
one differance I between my pHoM and the HoM which I'm sure evreyone understands

The easier it is to understand, the more I'm convinced the reason is unconstitional. A lot of us would like to have had a reason not to vote for Pete Rose.

All water under the bridge, though. :-)
   57. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: July 26, 2007 at 03:19 PM (#2456213)
The easier it is to understand, the more I'm convinced the reason is unconstitional. A lot of us would like to have had a reason not to vote for Pete Rose
.

It would have been unconstitutional if had submitted a ballot, David, but yest didn't so he was okay.
   58. DavidFoss Posted: July 26, 2007 at 03:59 PM (#2456262)
Oh yeah. I forgot.
   59. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: July 26, 2007 at 05:11 PM (#2456383)
2002 ballot

Only two weeks left inmy uber-busy period then I can be back to beign a regular contributor.

Smith, Trammell, and GVH make my PHOM this year, Shocker, McGraw, and Charley Jones are on deck.

1. Ozzie Smith (x, PHOM) – I may be overrating him here but we have a weak backlog and Ozzie, as the best defensive SS of all-time, is certainly deserving of an elect me spot

2. Alan Trammell (x, PHOM) – I actually thought that he was better than this, I had figured that he had a higher peak than he does. Still, an easy HOMer. Part of the best video game baseball team of all time, the Tigers in RBI baseball.

3. Dick Redding (5, PHOM) – 2nd best NeL pitcher of the dead ball era after Smokey Joe Williams and that ain’t bad. I like his peak as much as Mendez’ and he had more career. Seems to be our best backlog pitcher.

4. Hugh Duffy (6, PHOM) – Best of the 1890’s CF trio based on his superior peak. I agree with WS that Duffy deserves some credit for his team over performing not only their pythag but also their RS and RA projections. That said, I still think WS overrates Duffy’s peak for other reasons.

5. Bucky Walters (7, PHOM) – Very good pitcher with a nice peak. He was baseball’s best pitcher in 1939 and 1940, could hit a little too. I am looking over how his defense may have artificially raised his IP numbers, but I am still pretty sure that I like him more than my next few pitchers.

6. Dave Stieb (8, PHOM) – Essentially tied with Walters. Bucky is ahead on his two year peak, but I could see it go either way.

7. Elston Howard (9, PHOM) – The more I look at him the more he looks like Quincey Trouppe. Both were good hitting catchers with nice peaks who played decent portions of their careers at other positions. However, I prefer Quincey’s time at 3B to Elston’s time in the OF and Quincey played more baseball while Elston sat behind Yogi Berra.

8. Pete Browning (10, PHOM) – Quite possibly the best hitter on the board right now. However, concerns about the quality of the 1880’s AA keep him below Keller and Kiner for me. Our recent discussion on Charley Jones has made me realize that Browning has many of the same problems Jones does and so he falls a few spots.

9. Gavvy Cravath (11, PHOM) – Finally coming around on him. Great peak in the Majors and he definitely deserves MiL credit.

10. Dizzy Dean (12, PHOM) – High peak pitcher who I view as Koufax Lite. His peak wasn’t quite as good, he had a little less career, and he wasn’t even has bad of a hitter. Still ballot worthy, however.

11. Don Mattingly (11, PHOM) – I see him as essentially tied with Hernandez and Sisler and we elected them easily. Underrated by the group.

12. Alejandro Oms (14, PHOM) – I see him as similar to, but slightly better than, George Van Haltren. I also prefere Oms to HOMer Willard Brown. He had a low peak but it was a long one that accrued value in the Billy Williams/Al Kaline mold.

13. Vic Willis (15, PHOM) – First time on my ballot. He made a jump into my top 25 about 30 or 40 years ago and now I have finally decided to vote for him. He has a great DERA and he was a horse for some very good pitching staff

14. Roger Bresnahan (16, PHOM) – Just like Peaches and Herb, Roger and my ballot are “Re-United and it feels So GOOD!” Best MLB catcher between 1900 and 1920. Very nice peak, even after I adjust for his time in CF. Makes my PHOM after a long wait just off ballot!

15. Larry Doyle (17) – First vote for him ever! Doyle started in my 20, fell down into the 30’s, and now has climbed back up. He and Fox have suffered opposite fates recently as I have decided that I would rather have the bopper over the fielder in this case. However, there are concerns with both his defense and the status of turn of the century 2B.

16. George van Haltren

17. Urban Shocker

18. John McGraw


16-20 GVH, Shocker, McGraw, C. Jones
21-25 Newcombe, Singleton, Puckett, Elliot, Rizzuto
26-30 Randolph, Berger, Guerrero, Da. Murphy, F. Howard
31-35 Tiant, Burns, Cepeda, Rueschel, Lundy
36-40 Chance, Pesky, Munson, Parker, Bancroft
41-45 Cey, Thomas, Concepcion, Quisenberry, Kaat
46-50 Perez, Monroe, Ryan, Stephens, H. Wilson
51-55 B. Johnson, Cicotte, Traynor, Easter, Bonds
56-60 Bando, Cash, Schang, Grimes, Clarkson

Required Disclosures:


C. Jones – I do not give Jones full credit for his missing years as I believe that he was not some innocent that was done in by the big, bad man. There is a chance that he acted the way he did in order to sever ties with Boston, in which case the league had some reason for acting the way that it did. However, I do give him one full season of credit (which in my system is better than two half seasons)because he wasn’t the only guilty party. Even with credit there are many other questions like league strength, deviations from the mean, and extrapolating 60-80 game seasons into 162 game seasons. All of these cause some downward pressure on Jones best seasons (as well as some upward pressure on some of his worst) and pull him down a bit. I have to say that I can see no way in which he is better than Charlie Keller, Jimmy Wynn, or even Gavvy Cravath. Not the worst choice we will have made, but I think he gets a boost because he was hard done by and that really isn’t fair to other players.

Bob Johnson – I don’t really understand his candidacy. High hitting era, high standard deviation, nothing special for his era, not a great peak. He is in the 50’s only because everyone seems to think he is worthy.

Newbies:

Dawson – Not particularly close to my top 50. He has a very small peak and his prime isn’t even that good, I think that he would be a definite mistake. Whether I like he or Beckley more is a decent question, though I may take the Hawk.

Wallach – Better than I thought but in the same boat as Dawson, not a real contender in my eyes.

Dykstra – Member of the memorable ’93 Phillies and also the author of maybe the worst book in the history of the English language. Possible Steroid user, and a VERY SMART baseball player who had little tolerance for those who did not understand the game as well as he did (as evidenced by his visits to the Philly broadcast booth). As a player he has a very nice two year peak (1990 and 1993 I believe) but little else. In fact his 1993 may have been the best ever by a Philly CFer not named Billy Hamilton.
   60. Juan V Posted: July 26, 2007 at 05:23 PM (#2456400)
He's still going to lose this week due to Trammall missing my ballot (remember he's a shortstop)


So, when do we get to see it?

Maybe it's just me, but I get really excited when the low consensus outliers post their ballots.
   61. yest Posted: July 26, 2007 at 09:04 PM (#2456763)
computer trobule will delay me a bit
   62. dan b Posted: July 27, 2007 at 02:44 AM (#2457433)
PHoM 2002 – Trammell, Smith, Murphy


1. Trammell More peak than Oz
2. Smith, O.
3. Dean PHoM 1976. 1975 reevaluation of great pitching peaks put him on my ballot for the first time. NHBA #25.
4. Walters PHoM 1968. Nice peak – 3 WS Cy Youngs, 1 runner up.
5. Duffy PHoM 1912. I’ve been looking at how players on the ballot compare with the median level of already enshrined HoMers using WS. Duffy would be in the top half using 5 consecutive seasons, 10 consecutive seasons, 3 best and 8 best seasons.
6. Rizzuto PHoM 1995. 1993 reevaluation moved him up. Stark says he is overrated, but Stark didn’t give him any war credit. NHBA #16.
7. Bresnahan PHoM 1928. SABR Dead ball era committee has him #1. No MLB catchers between Ewing and Hartnett is not being fair to all eras.
8. Cooper, W PHoM 1942. Returns to my ballot in 1995 after 44-year hiatus. His peak was during a thinly recognized period. 1 WS Cy Young, 3 times runner up. Willis may have been better, but his era is more strongly represented.
9. Singleton PHoM 1997. Not many players on ballot with 3-32+ and 6-27+ WS seasons.
10. Burns, G. PHoM 1996. Came close to making PHoM during the 1929-1932 trough. Probably should have, better late than never. His 10-consective year peak is above the HoM median as is his 3-year non-consecutive.
11. Leach PHoM 1926. Teddy bear.
12. Bando PHoM 1994. NHBA #11 (Boyer #12)
13. Stieb PHoM 2001. 2 WS Cy Youngs, 2 times runner up.
14. Murphy PHoM 2002. 4 consecutive seasons with 30+ WS
15. Cravath PHoM 1967. mle credit where credit is due.
16. Howard, E PHoM 1995. NHBA #15
17. Mays, C PHoM 1997. His era could use another pitcher. A quality pitcher we are overlooking. NHBA #38.
18. Newcombe PHoM 1998. Giving more war and mle credit (1993). NHBA #46.
19. Puckett
20. Mattingly
21. Willis, V PHoM 1941.
22. Browning PHoM 1912.
23. Parker Do the first base line Dave. NHBA #14.
24. Howard, F
25. Berger
26. Rosen If Moore, why not Rosen? If a great 5 consecutive season peak were the only measure we considered, Rosen would have been elected in 1964.
27. Bonds, Bo Barry’s dad was pretty good.
28. Munson NHBA #14
29. Dawson
30. Staub Most career value on the ’02 ballot.
31. Veach
32. Evans, Dw I know he is a HoMer, just holding his place for the PHoM.
33. Perez Not enough good seasons to be higher. Jayson Stark says he is overrated.
34. Cepeda
35. Tiant
36. Cash, N
37. Doyle PHoM 1930.
38. Chance, F PHoM 1921.
39. Jones, C – I have voted for him (4) times – 1898 thru 1901. When I dropped him in ’02, he received only 2 votes. Ed Williamson was on 18 ballots; Arlie Latham drew more support with 3 votes. My 1898 ballot comment – “9. Jones. Two-year hold out probably costs him a couple places”. Nobody was giving credit for not playing back then, as we hadn’t tackled issues like war and mil credit yet. If as many voters had treated his hold out years like he was an all-star back then as are doing so now, he may have been elected by 1920. His 1988 top-10 finish pushed me to re-evaluate for 1989 and give him holdout credit. A reconstructed PHoM based on if I thought then like I think now, would have put him in my PHoM during the trough years of 1929-32 if not 1921.
40. Grimes
41. Ryan, J
42. Van Haltren Do 3 years of slightly below average pitching really merit Van Haltren this much more support than Jimmy Ryan? Walked 16 in stellar pitching performance 6/27/1887.
43. Redding Fared well in the Cool Papa’s survey, as did Spots Poles.
44. Elliott
45. Brock not enough peak to be higher
46. Pinson
47. Smith, Reg less peak and less career than Brock
48. Sutter I like him better than Fingers.
49. Arlett
50. Traynor
   63. jimd Posted: July 27, 2007 at 06:53 PM (#2457865)
Ballot for 2002

Read previous ballots if you want more depth on my reasons for all but the latest eligibles.

I am a peak/prime/career voter. Prime tends to dominate the ballot as Career has had an easier time of it in HOM elections, and short Peaks don't get too far in my system. Important parts of my peak and prime assessment are both the quantity and quality of a player's "All-Star" selections. These are the seasons where the player is able to make a positive contribution to a typical "playoff contender" (top 25% of participating teams). I use both WARP and Win Shares, though I emphasize the former because of its demonstrated overall yearly positional balance throughout baseball history.

I am reexamining my ballot carefully as we go deep into the backlog.

1) D. STIEB -- The lack of support here is surprising to me. Best pitcher of the early 1980's. Prime 1980-89. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1982, 1983, 1984, 1985; WARP adds 1981. Other star seasons include 1980, 1988, and 1989.

2) O. SMITH -- Smith and Trammell are extremely close in my rating system. Long low prime similar to Whitaker, though my system prefers Lou. Practically never the best SS in a given season, though always in the discussion. Both of these guys were in Ripken's shadow, but Smith's glovework gave him an identity that got him into the HOF. Trammell, apparently, was quickly dismissed. Prime 1978-93. Best player candidate in 1987 by WS. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SS) by WS in 1985. Other star seasons include 1980, 1986, 1987, 1988, 1989, 1991, 1992. Honorable Mention in 1978, 1982, 1983, 1984, and 1993.

3) A. TRAMMELL -- Overrated but still an easy HOMer. Expected him to be #1 on my ballot but he just doesn't score that high. Good peak but relatively short prime. Prime 1980-90. Best player by WS in 1987, candidate by WARP. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SS) in 1987, WS adds 1990. Other star seasons include 1980, 1981, 1983, 1984, 1986, and 1988. Honorable mention in 1982.

4) B. WALTERS -- Best of the backlog. Prime 1939-44. Best player in 1939; candidate in 1940 by WS. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1939, 1941, 1944; WS adds 1940. Other star seasons include 1936 and 1942.

5) K. PUCKETT -- Joins the backlog near the top. Prime 1985-1995. Best player candidate in 1988 and 1992 by WARP. 1st-team MLB All-Star (CF) in 1986 and 1988 by WS; 1992 by WARP. Other star seasons include 1987, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1994. HM in 1985, 1993, and 1995.

6) F. TANANA -- More good seasons than Gossage. Poster-child for pitcher abuse. Still has the peak and also has the career. Prime 1974-77. Best player candidate in 1976 and 1977 by WARP. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1976; WARP adds 1975, 1977. Other star seasons include 1974, 1984. Honorable mention in 1987.

7) K. SINGLETON -- Better peak than Bonds; not quite as much prime as Wynn. Prime 1973-81. Best player candidate 1977, WS adds 1979. 1st-team MLB All-Star (RF) in 1975 and 1977. Other star seasons include 1973, 1978, 1979, 1980, 1981; also 1976 in LF.

8) D. CONCEPCION -- His best 7 seasons are very close to Ozzie's best 7, though Ozzie is clearly superior in peak, shoulder seasons, and career value. Prime 1974-82. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SS) in 1974; WARP adds 1976 and 1979; WS adds 1978 and 1981. Other star seasons include 1982. HM in 1975 and 1977.

9) L. TIANT -- Pitching candidate very close to the in/out line. Win Shares does not like him. Tended to alternate good years (even) and off years (odd). Prime 1966-1978. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1968, 1974; WS adds 1976. Other star seasons include 1972 and 1973. Honorable Mention in 1966 and 1978.

10) J. KAAT -- Belongs. 14 HOM "bats" were born 1893-1903 (Sisler, Heilmann, Ruth, Torriente, Charleston, Terry, Goslin, Suttles, Stearnes, Averill, Simmons, Waner, Bell, Gehrig); don't tell me that 10 pitchers born 1938-48 are too many.Prime 1961-1975. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1962; WS adds 1966. Other star seasons include 1974 and 1975. HM in 1961, 1964, 1967, 1971.

11) F. JONES -- Still an all-star player when he walked away. I still think he rates ahead of Ashburn, but it's close. Prime 1900-08. 1st-team MLB All-Star (CF) in 1908; WARP adds 1902 and 1907. Other star seasons include 1900, 1901, 1903, 1904, 1905, 1906.

12) F. DUNLAP -- Great two-way player; bypassed for some reason. Amibidextrous, too. Reportedly could catch and throw equally well with either hand. Useful in this era before modern fielding gloves forced a player to choose one hand for each. Prime 1880-86. Best Player candidate 1880-81 (WARP). 1st-team MLB All-Star (2B) in 1880, 1881; WARP adds 1882, 1883, and 1885. 1884 in the UA is hard to evaluate but may also be #1. Other star seasons include 1886.

13) D. DEAN -- High peak candidate. Prime 1932-36. Candidate for best player in MLB baseball, 1934. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) 1934, 1935, 1936; WARP adds 1932. Other star seasons include 1933.

14) B. BONDS -- Very nice prime; marginal on career. Those who go to extreme either way will miss him. Prime 1969-77. Best player candidate 1970 by WS. 1st-team MLB All-Star (RF) in 1970; WARP adds 1971 and 1973. Other star seasons include 1969, 1972, 1974, 1975, 1977, 1978. HM in 1979.

15) R. CEY -- Important component of the late 70's Dodgers. Prime 1973-1981. 1st-team MLB All-Star (3B) in 1978 by WARP. Other star seasons include 1974, 1975, 1976, 1979, 1980, and 1981. HM in 1973 and 1977.

16) B. MAZEROSKI -- Prime 1957-66. 1st-team MLB All-Star (2B) 1960 and 1964; WARP adds 1958. Other star seasons include 1962, 1963, 1966. HM in 1957, 1961, 1965.

17) T. PEREZ -- Better 3B than expected. Important component of the Reds prior to the arrival of Joe Morgan. Prime 1967-1975. Best player candidate 1970 by Win Shares. 1st-team MLB All-Star (3B) in 1970; WS adds 1973 at 1B. Other star seasons include 1967, 1968, 1969, 1971 (3B), and 1972 at 1B. HM in 1974, 1975, 1977 (1B).

18) D. REDDING -- Long career candidate. Fell off due to influx of new candidates.

19) D. BANCROFT -- Boost due to DanR's replacement level work. Prime 1916-22. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SS) 1920 and 1921; WS adds 1922. Other star seasons include 1916, 1917, 1918, 1925, 1926.

20) D. MATTINGLY -- Might make by ballot before we're through. Best player in baseball is hard to ignore. Prime 1984-94. Best player in 1986 by WARP, candidate by WS. 1st-team MLB All-Star (1B) 1985 and 1986; WARP adds 1987. Other star seasons include 1984, 1988, 1989, 1994. HM in 1992 and 1993.

Just missing the cut are:
21-23) Frank Viola, Pie Traynor, Jim McCormick,
24-26) Rabbit Maranville, Norm Cash, Ron Guidry,
27-29) Thurman Munson, Elston Howard, Lance Parrish,
30-32) Dizzy Trout, Jim Whitney, George Foster,
33-35) Vic Willis, Bobby Veach, Bob Johnson,
36-38) Roger Bresnahan, Urban Shocker, George Burns,
39-41) Herman Long, Dale Murphy, Graig Nettles,
42-44) Ned Williamson, Andre Dawson, Bob Elliott,
45-47) Denny Lyons, Hugh Duffy, Vida Blue,
48-50) George VanHaltren, Silver King, Charley Jones,

I trust that those who say, in their defense of Pete Browning, that there is a point of diminishing returns when it comes to discounting players in weak leagues, are giving Fred Dunlap the benefit of the same doubt when it comes to 1884.
   64. Mark Donelson Posted: July 27, 2007 at 07:38 PM (#2457909)
1) D. STIEB -- The lack of support here is surprising to me.

Lack of support? He finished fifth last year, and looks to be elected fairly soon. Do you mean lack of unanimity?
   65. AJMcCringleberry Posted: July 27, 2007 at 07:53 PM (#2457926)
I used to think so, too, but how much of that is because of playing in shorter 80 or 100 game seasons instead of 154 or 162? Normalize those seasons and you'll find that Charley doesn't do nearly as badly on career considerations. The blacklisted time still hurts him- and it's up to you if you want to give him credit for that (I don't)- but he's not as far off as all that.

I actually did normalize those seasons a couple of "years" back and he moved up quite a bit. He's still not particularly close to my ballot, I see him as Pete Browning-lite and I have Browning 53rd.
   66. jimd Posted: July 27, 2007 at 08:22 PM (#2457951)
Lack of support? He finished fifth last year, and looks to be elected fairly soon. Do you mean lack of unanimity?

No I never expected anything close to unanimity. I find Stieb to be fairly comparable to Jim Bunning or Bob Lemon who I think would likely get more support than Stieb is getting on the current ballot.

I suppose it would be politic to update the boilerplate.
   67. Jim Sp Posted: July 27, 2007 at 11:55 PM (#2458183)
1) Trammell--Who would be a nose above Whitaker. Trammell and Smith even on career, peak edge goes to Trammell.
2) Ozzie Smith--Baserunning and fielding are extremely good, he did hit pretty well at his peak also.
3) John McGraw--Ultra-dominant player when healthy.
4) Bob Johnson-- WinShares says C fielder, warp thinks he’s considerably better than that. Very high assist totals from LF. Played CF for a terrible 1938 A’s team, also a little bit of 2B and 3B. On the whole I think the record indicates that he was actually a good defensive player. I also suspect that his WinShares suffer from playing on some horrible teams. May have struggled trying to get a break, tough to grab playing time on the great A’s teams earlier in his career. Never did anything but mash despite late ML start at age 27. 1934-1942 is a HoM worth prime in my view. PHoM in 1970.
5) StiebThe dominant pitcher during a tough time to dominate. Lack of support made his dominance hard to see. Great year for example in 1985 (171 ERA+, 265 IP), and went 14-13. 1982-1985 each year was top 3 in both IP and ERA+. 1981-1985 warp3: 8.5, 9.9, 9.1, 9.7, 9.4.
6) Concepcion--Grade A+ shortstop and could hit some too. Weak hitting at the beginning and end, but above average during prime 1973-1982. Warp3 prime: 10.7, 10.2, 10.2, 9.7, 8.8, 8.7, 8.3, 8.0. Note that Win Shares is conservative in assigning fielding credit to the great fielders. PHoM 1994.
7) Rizzuto--The man lost his age 25, 26, and 27 seasons to the war, right after a very good season in 1942. One of the best fielding shortstops of all time. A 93 career OPS+ is strong for a grade A shortstop, not weak. Great peak season in 1950 (11.4 warp3). PHoM 1977.
8) BancroftConvinced now that the BP league quality warp discount is excessive.
9) Nettles--Great fielder with quite a bit of pop in his bat. Best Warp3: 10.7, 10.2, 8.9, 8.4, 8.2. PHoM 1995.
10) Charley Jones--A masher whose prime was destroyed by the blacklist.
11) Stephens-- PHoM in 1961. Looks underrated to me. Best years by Warp3 10.2, 10.1, 8.9, 8.5, 8.0, 7.8. Another player short on career length, but I like the prime.
12) Bobby Bonds--PHoM 1986. 1969 -75, 77 are all very good to MVP candidate seasons. Career 130 OPS+ plus good speed, a good enough fielder to play some CF. Is only lacking longevity.
13) Buddy Bell--The number of other 3b candidates should not be held against him. Compare him to the average starting 3b of the era and clearly he was a superior player. Compare Bell’s 108 OPS+ to say Ray Knight (99), Phil Garner (99), Enos Cabell (93)—none of whom were good fielders at 3rd. It’s a tough position. Apparently I’m doomed to end this exercise with 10 third baseman on my ballot.
14) Cey--I’ll take the plunge on Cey. I like Elliott, so indeed Cey shows up on my ballot. Power, walks, and defense at 3rd…wish the Mets didn’t spend 40 years looking for that. He didn’t look like a ballplayer but he was a good one. Best Warp3 10.5, 9.6, 9.2, 9.1, 9.0, 8.9. Interesting that Hack and Groh are in while Elliott and Cey are out, I have them in the same bunch. PHoM 1997.
15) Elliott--PHoM in 1960. The hitting for a 3B in his era is outstanding. Best years by warp3: 10.9, 9.4, 9.2, 8.7, 7.7, 7.3, 7.0. Strong prime trumps an early decline in my view.


Browning—after his great season in the 1890 PL at age 29, not much. Not in my top 100.
Redding #20.
Bresnahan—Bresnahan is my personal Rorschach test. I used to vote for him, then he wasn’t in my top 100. Dan R’s data has me bumping him up again. Sigh. Let’s say #16 for now.
Duffy—#82. Good hitter, great fielder. Duffy, Van Haltren, and Ryan are even in my estimation, but off the ballot.

Dawson #17, Wallach #60, Dykstra memorable but not close.

Others of note:
Cecil Travis--Career destroyed by actual war service, not merely a ballplayer in uniform. With 2/3 of a HoM career already in the books at age 27, why exactly shouldn’t I give him his lost career, rather than the lost war years? If I do, he's in. Still thinking about pulling the trigger.

Thinking about:
Campaneris, Leach, Reggie Smith, Harrah, Klein, Bartell, Cuyler, Lazzeri, Bresnahan
   68. SWW Posted: July 28, 2007 at 12:00 AM (#2458196)
Getting this in well before Monday this time, dad gummit. Some juggling on this year’s ballot.

<u>2002 Ballot</u>
1) Osbourne Earl Smith – “The Wizard of Oz”
Ozzie’s offensive statistics always surprise me. He’s deservedly remembered as a defensive stud, but I still remember feeling like the Templeton trade was lopsided, owing to Garry’s stronger bat. Didn’t work out that way, though. 56th on SABR Top 100. 58th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 69th on Ken Shouler Top 100. 87th on Sporting News Top 100. New York Times Top 100.
2) Alan Stuart Trammell
If you want to know the value of flash in the eyes of observers – and want to strike a blow against Top 100 lists -- look at how these lists recognize Ozzie, and pay no heed to this equally outstanding career. Trammell’s totals are a tiny bit behind the Wiz, but the difference between 1st and 2nd here is not large at all.
3) Burleigh Arland Grimes – “Ol’ Stubblebeard”
My white whale. A successful pitcher with both a dead ball and a live one. Frequently one of the best pitchers in the league, and often the best pitcher on his team. Many comparisons to Early Wynn, whom we did elect, and most similar to Red Faber, whom we also elected. I heartily encourage people to review his case. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
4) Atanasio Perez Rigal – “Tony”
The closer Tony gets to the top of my ballot, the more skeptical I become of his position there. I’m a career guy, and his career numbers are typical of a guy I would stump for, but it feels awfully flat. For the moment, I’m going to take stats over gut feelings, since that’s the point of this project. But I’m not entirely comfortable with this placement, which tells me I’m missing something, so it could change. 74th on Ken Shouler Top 100.
5) Kirby Puckett
I know he’s considered overrated, but I’m still a little surprised more aren’t eager to join his bandwagon. Writers tend to overstate his career, overusing words like “stocky” and “fireplug”. But the man put up the numbers, with 6 Top 10 AL Win Shares seasons, and probably could have accumulated more (although I haven’t factored that in here). Also, if you’re like me and you ever ordered a McDonald’s Puck Pack, you’re still trying to burn that fat off. Sheesh. 86th on Sporting News Top 100. 95th on SABR Top 100. 98th on Bill James Top 100.
6) Dale Bryan Murphy
A pleasant surprise. Similar in some ways to Hugh Duffy, in the peak-heavy nature of his career. A lot more of a prime, though, with 6 appearances in the NL Top 10 in Win Shares. New York Times Top 100.
7) Orlando Manuel Cepeda Pennes – “Baby Bull”
Finally split up Cepeda and Perez. The biggest factor right now in my evaluation of Cepeda is the arrival on the ballot of Don Mattingly. They’re closer in merit than I realized, which is dragging them toward each other.
8) Carl William Mays
I have long considered Mays to be underrated, with better seasons and more milestones than more beloved candidates, like Luis Tiant and Billy Pierce. A much more definitive impact on his team and era than someone like, oh, Dave Stieb. I renew my suspicion that the ghost of Ray Chapman has shrouded his achievements.
9) Louis Clark Brock
Reaffirming my status as a career voter. He does well in Black and Gray Ink (owing, no doubt, to his prowess on the basepaths), and his prime WS and Top 10 WS seasons are notable. He’s hanging in there. 42nd on Ken Shouler Top 100. 58th on Sporting News Top 100. 73rd on SABR Top 100. 77th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. New York Times Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
10) Daniel Joseph “Rusty” Staub – “Le Grand Orange”
I‘m moving him up, because his career numbers actually stand out more than I realized. 358 WS is nothing to sneeze at, but his 5-year prime of 145 WS is also a standout. Imagine if he’d spent his career with one great team. 96th on SABR Top 100. 97th on Ken Shouler Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
11) Andre Nolan Dawson – “Hawk”
Compares very favorably to Whitaker, and edges out Doyle at his position. I still see a very flat career arc, but it’s a very strong one nonetheless, so I can’t really justify leaving him off. 72nd on Ken Shouler Top 100.
12) Richard Redding – “Cannonball Dick”
Definitely the best remaining Negro League pitcher. That in and of itself may not merit his election. Hanging in there thanks to my support for Mays, who has a strikingly similar arc.
13) David Gene Parker – “Cobra”
If I’ve learned anything through my association with this project, it’s that while I’m a career voter, the importance of having a strong prime has grown a great deal in my estimation. It’s that thinking that keeps Parker on my ballot, and while I’m always reviewing the matter, I’m feeling alright about this placement. There’d be no doubt, if only he’d laid off the Colombian marching powder.
14) Donald Arthur Mattingly – “Donnie Baseball”
A huge shock. Considering the toll taken by injuries, he has really impressive seasonal numbers, including ink. Compares quite favorably with Perez and Cepeda, which makes me think that I either have them too high or Mattingly too low. We’re certainly not hurting for first basemen, he does far better than I anticipated. Damn Yankees.
15) Graig Nettles
I remember him as a very consistent third baseman; no Schmidt or Brett, but significantly better than, say, Carney Lansford. I’m a little surprised he placed this high, but the numbers point to a strong career. Similar to Darrell Evans, who I thought went in kind of fast.

<u>Other Top 10 Finishers</u>
Louis Rogers Browning – “Pete”
A little like Rube Waddell as a slugger. Definitely better than I expected, and I think there’s a very strong case to be made that he’s might be better than Wynn. His position and era are well-represented, and I’m not entirely convinced that he’s outstanding enough to move up. So many frickin’ center fielders.
David Andrew Stieb
I always liked Dave. Always thought he was a little underrated. But looking at the stats, he’s not that exceptional. Many of my concerns about Ron Guidry apply to Stieb, and I think Guidry is a much stronger candidate. Why him and not Dennis Martinez? Or Rick Sutcliffe? Call me blind if you must, but I just don’t see it.
Charles Wesley Jones
I understand his troubles with blacklisting and such. The three year gap is devastating. However, the numbers he did put up point to a rather flat career arc, and I have him behind Frank Howard and George J. Burns in left field.
Roger Philip Bresnahan – “The Duke of Tralee”
I have no problem classifying him as a catcher, and certainly the best catcher currently eligible. But is he so great a catcher that he merits induction? I’m not so sure.
Robert Lee Johnson – “Indian Bob”
Five of these guys? Sheesh. Comes out similar to Heinie Manush, who I think is underrated, but still not quite ballot-worthy. So Bob falls short.
   69. Mark Donelson Posted: July 28, 2007 at 01:12 AM (#2458376)
SWW--If you're looking for a nickname for Nettles, I believe his most common one was "Puff."

And jimd--I hear you about updating boilerplate, having left something odd on both of the last two of my ballots...
   70. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: July 28, 2007 at 03:48 AM (#2458602)
2002 Ballot

Good year for discussion with lots of interesting candidates hitting the ballot with numerous angles on each.

Good news: we’re getting a new car. Bad news: we’re getting it because our old jalopy failed inspection. Anyone know of a Civic for sale in the Northern New England area?

1. Alejandro Oms: I know I’m going against the grain here. I think Oms probably did everything Winfield did over a long career, plus he played a good centerfield for much of it. Oms, in fact, has lots in common with Winfield, including the fact that neither seems to have had a superior peak, that both had a long, wonderful prime, and that both racked up tons of career value. Winfield is a safer, easier choice between them because his career is entirely documented and simple to interpret, but the NgL players have always required some guesswork, and my guess is that they are similar players with the slight advantage of position going to Oms.

2. Wilbur Cooper: Dominant NL portsider of the late 1910s-early 1920s. This guy was in the (retroactive) Cy Young chase every single year for a good long while in the late teens and early 1920s, battling Old Pete, Hippo, and Dolf for several years. I like pitchers who show dominance for a good stretch, and he’s one.

3. Ken Singleton: He’s the best player in the AL of the very late 1970s, and a good long while best RF in the AL. And while he might not have much defensive value, he’s doing a great job of walking and hitting with power, lots of SEC. Plenty of All-Star and MVP type seasons.

4. Larry Doyle: Dominant 2B of the NL of the 1910s, good peak/prime, and an argument for having been the best player in the NL for a brief time. Few on this ballot can make such a claim to league-wide dominance.

5. Tommy Leach: Pick your poison. As a CF, he’s not got enough peak to get on the ballot. But as a 3B, he’s a fabulous career candidate with enough at the top end to be among the top dozen 3Bs. Splitting it down the middle, he’s a 3B/CF hybrid with outstanding seasons at both positions, a nice, long career, and enough peak/prime to emerge as a downballot candidate.

6. Alan Trammell: Both shortstops I’m adding to the ballot this year are placing higher than the mechanics of my rankings would suggest. They are both very much near the borderline, and discussion of them has been robust and interesting. I’m boosting them up a bit. Trammell, had he played in the NL would have regularly been the best SS in his league, but that sort of credit is depressed by playing in the Yount/Ripken era, so this slotting is an acknowledgment of that.

7. Ozzie Smith: The lousiness of the NL SS of his time cuts both ways. While in our discussion I showed how Ozzie could, indeed, make up all the ground and then some that Trammell has on him viz OPS+, I’m concerned enough about his actual positional competition relative to Trammell’s that I’m placing him just behind Alan. In reality, my system tells me to leave him off the ballot altogether, but I am swayed a bit by the fact that baserunning and fielding aren’t well covered by WS (in varying proportions) and I think it’s fair to say that Ozzie pushes the extremes of many systems. As I’ve noted in discussion, he’s a perfect storm of a wide array of smaller skills at which he performed brilliantly, despite his total inability to hit for power and his spotty ability to hit for much average.

8. Lance Parrish: Let me take a minute here to explain, since I think everyone’s going to jump my ship for this. As explained in his thread, Parrish’s two big knocks are his lack of walks and his fielding. But neither ubersystem sees Parrish as having problematic fielding—to the contrary, they LIKE his glove. We have evidence of his defensive goodness which has been largely ignored in the discussions so far: Parrish hung on for a good while as a regular and semi-regular despite a decline in his hitting—he could not have done so had his defense been as weak as has been said. Which leaves the walks. Well, catchers who play D and hit 300+ homers are still pretty rare, even in today’s HR-happy times. I won’t tell you the lack of walks is illusory, but I will say that Parrish built a lot of value despite the lack of walks, and that value is what I’m looking at. Parrish’s case begins and ends with positional dominance and career length. He was the best catcher of the AL for several years. Even after, he remained a productive regular for several seasons and a good backup even after that. He’s almost as high in my rankings at catcher as Whitaker is in my rankings of 2Bs. Not quite but almost. He’s right below Freehand and Torre. However, he’s more impressive than the guys below him at catcher, where Whitaker’s got plenty of guys breathing down his neck. I think both are HOMers, but their relative rankings are not cast in stone, and I’ll continue to monitor how I feel about it.

9. Dave Stieb: Admittedly I’ve been an advocate for Stieb. But I think it’s warranted. He outshone the league during a difficult time to dominate, and he’s the best pitcher in the AL over long, meaningful stretches of time. I wish 1986 were better, but that’s life. You don’t get to pick when your off years happen. Even so, he had plenty left in the tank, and among eligible peak/prime pitchers, he’s a great choice for induction. I have him above Walters based on many of the small things discussed in the Stieb thread, however, I could just as easily have gone the other way on it.

10. Bucky Walters: You know the story---I like pitcher peaks, and he's got one, even when dampened for the war.

11. Leroy Matlock: He’s back. Many years ago now I saw Matlock as the best available pitcher. My consensus scores plummeted…. But in reviewing NgL players, I looked back on his thread, and I don’t really understand why I lost my nerve on him. The MLEs look HOMable, even if you see that 1937 season as a little less than 43 WS. I think we’ve whiffed on him, and that someday when we’ve got more better information, he’ll be one of the “lost” guys that no one talked about who ends up as a HOMer.

12. Hugh Duffy: Lots of All-Star and MVP type seasons, a good run as his league's best position player, plenty of adjusted career value. He'd be a perfectly fine selection, but he’s certainly a borderliner.

13. Gavy Cravath: Nearly as good as Winfield, but that doesn’t necessarily translated into a high ballot placement….

14. Sal Bando: Same old, same old here. Good bat, good peak value despite so-so to not-so-good glove.

15. Pie Traynor: He’s extremely close to Bando in value but doin’ it different.


OTHER NEWBIES
-Andre Dawson: He’s very, very close, in the same general range in both RF and CF that Randolph or Puckett or Fox were at their positions.
-Lenny Dykstra: Great player, terrible body.
-Tim Wallach: Not much peak, not enough career, good at lots of things, great at none.
-Danny Tartabull: Probably the worst Phils FA signing ever in terms of the absolute production returned. I don’t get Danny Tartabull’s career…a ton of promise, some fine seasons, and a seeming disinterest in actually playing baseball. Hard to figure.





NOTABLE OLDIES

-Pete Browning: Just off my ballot, and I was probably wrong about his HOMiness previously.

-Dick Redding: I’m not a believer. Those 1920s numbers aren’t pretty. I’d encourage everyone to look back at them again. It’s not pretty at all, and he needs all of them to make it. I’d rather induct Cannonball Adderley.


-Tony Perez: A prime and career that still awaits a great peak.

-Charley Jones: Baseball’s most weirdest career. An uptick seems in the offing to me if the 1875 stuff is true, and there’s more info from Paul Wendt. He’s very close already

-Roger Bresnahan: Tralee’s at the bottom of my current catcher list, no problem to me if he goes in.

-Bob Johnson: I dunno, I’m not really taken with him, but WS may underrate him due to his awful teammates. If I used WARP I might be since he’s a prime candidate more than a peak or career guys. On the other hand, he’s got a case for MiL credit. He’s not helped by war discounts, though.
   71. Arrieta, Gentile Arrieta Posted: July 28, 2007 at 08:58 PM (#2459090)
The counters will be happy, as I’m posting early again. Going on vacation for 2 weeks and will have very occasional computer access.

2002 ballot:

1. Ozzie Smith, ss
2. Alan Trammell, ss
You couldn’t go wrong with either one. Big defensive edge to Oz and he was a pretty good offensive player once he matured.

3. Roger Bresnahan, c: Great player whose versatility illustrates his quality. (eligible 1921, PHOM 1929)

4. Andre Dawson, cf/rf: Looks like the major knock on this 5-tool player is that he lacks the 6th tool that’s sort of become a sabermetric touchstone -- drawing walks. All the backlog outfielders have one or more warts. With all else he offers, this is one I can live with. If I had him on my team, I wouldn’t trade him for any of the other eligible outfielders.

5. Carl Mays, sp: Good peak candidate, pretty good hitter. (eligible 1935, PHOM 1986)

6. Bobby Bonds, rf: 5-tool outfielder. Had the speed and skill to play center, at least early on, but the Giants had some other guy there already. (eligible 1987, PHOM 1996)

7. Orlando Cepeda, 1b: Has the peak/prime edge over Perez and Cash, MVP (whether deserved or not). (eligible 1980, PHOM 1996)

8. Lou Brock, lf: Great player in a narrow sense. OPS+ underrates him. Post-season play elevates him. (eligible 1985, PHOM !997)

9. Lance Parrish, c: I’m a little surprised he comes out so well, but so he does. 9-time first- or second-team all-star, 324 HR, A-rated defender. (eligible 2001)

10. Bruce Sutter, rp: Terrific ERA+ and incredible WS rate. Established the mold for the modern closer, but wasn’t confined to the 1-inning regimen. Career’s a bit short. (eligible 1994, PHOM 1997)

11. Kirby Puckett, cf: Only 12 seasons, but really nice ones. (eligible 2001)

12. Burleigh Grimes, sp: 270 wins, .560 W%, Retro-Cy, 5 STATS AS, 9 all-star quality seasons. Too many bad seasons have ruined his chances. (eligible 1940, PHOM 1942)

13. Phil Rizzuto, ss: I’d like a little more peak, but with credit for the missing years, he’s got the career value. Great defense, infield anchor for a bunch of pennant winners. (eligible 1962)

14. Lefty Gomez, sp: Low innings total, but a terrific peak, more career than Dean, good black & gray ink, HOFS, HOFM, W-L, ERA. Pitched for a lot of good teams. He had something to do with that. (eligible 1948)

15. Pie Traynor, 3b: 11 quality seasons, 6-time STATS all-star, but he might have been a standout over a weak field. A ballot on-again, off-again. (eligible 1941, PHOM 1987)


Required comments:
Pete Browning, cf: In my PHOM (’27), and I now think that was a mistake (Beckley wasn’t). Monster hitter, monstrous on defense. That he was dominant despite in-season durability problems says quite a bit about the league.
Charley Jones: Among just the 19th-century leftovers, I have him behind Duffy, Welch, Browning, and maybe even Dunlap. I don’t think he’ll be making my ballot anytime soon.
Dave Stieb, sp: Good peak candidate but I don’t see what separates him from a lot of the others.
Dick Redding, sp: Long career flame-thrower, top 5(?) 10(?) Negro League pitcher. PHOM 1966 but I’ve cooled off since.
Bob Johnson, lf: The career isn’t overly long, the peak isn’t outstanding, but he was one of the top outfielders in his league almost every year. He’s fallen back, there’s nothing exciting there. (eligible 1951)
Hugh Duffy: I think we’ve just about bled the 19th century dry, but if there’s one player from there I’d still support, it’s him. Depending on how the backlog shakes out, he could make it on my ballot. (PHOM 1940)
   72. Rob_Wood Posted: July 29, 2007 at 05:18 PM (#2460257)
2002 ballot from this career voter (low replacement level):

1. George Van Haltren - deserving star of the underrepresented 1890s
2. Ozzie Smith - could be numero uno; highest defensive value ever?
3. Graig Nettles - super fielder; I am surprised by his lack of support
4. Alan Trammell - very good shortstop
5. Bob Johnson - solid hitter, solid career (w/1 year minor lg credit)
6. Bobby Bonds - good combo of peak and career
7. Tony Perez - good career though he was barely an adequate 3B defensively
8. Bob Elliott - good 3B mired with woeful Pirates and Braves
9. Tommy Bridges - luv the strikeouts & win pct, with minor league and wwii credit
10. Andre Dawson - very difficult to place; depends on your view of his defense
11. Rusty Staub - good peak + good career (similar to Perez)
12. Charley Jones - great player, with 2 years of lockout credit
13. Reggie Smith - boost from center field play and japan
14. Chuck Klein - very good peak and career (even after adjusting for park)
15. Rabbit Maranville - better career than most realize (with credit for 1918)
------
16-20 Hack Wilson, Pie Traynor, Bus Clarkson, Jack Clark, Luis Aparicio

Not voting for Dick Redding (around 50th), Pete Browning (around 100th), Dave Stieb (around 75th),
Roger Bresnahan (around 75th), and Hugh Duffy (around 100th).
   73. Patrick W Posted: July 29, 2007 at 07:16 PM (#2460653)
1. Ozzie Smith (n/a), St.L. (N) SS (’78-’96) (2002) – My system tweaks defense enough so that Ozzie drops from the 39th best player to date down to 76th. Unless of course he happened to be your favorite player when you were 10 years old – in that case, he becomes the greatest player ever.
--. Dave Winfield, N.Y. (A) – S.D. (N), RF / LF (’73-’95) (2001)
2. Frank Tanana (3), Cal. – Detr. (A) SP (’73-’93) (2000) – Sandy Koufax peak, plus played for 20 years of average / below avg. Here is either the player that breaks my system or a vastly underrated pitcher by the rest of you. Only player in my top 100 who is not HOM (or going to be in ’02).
3. Alan Trammell (n/a), Detr. (A) SS (’77-’96) (2002) – Can’t subtract enough Tanana points for not hitting to have Trammell finish second.
4. Tony Perez (4), Cinc. (N), 1B / 3B (’65-’86) (1994) – Completely different BA/OB/SG breakdown, but the sum of his offensive and defensive value to a team makes him look like a twin of Willie Keeler to me.
5. Luis Tiant (5), Bost. – Clev. (A) SP (’64-’80) (1988) – Right there with Drysdale, Ford and Marichal. Not a slam dunk, but the ballot’s not strong enough to hold him down.
--. Lou Whitaker, Detr. (A) 2B (’78-’95) (2001)
6. Andre Dawson (n/a), Mont. – Chic. (N), CF / RF (’76-’96) (2002) – He ranks as substantially better on both offense and defense than the Rice-Parker crowd that he is usually lumped together with on the HOF ballots. Even if his ’87 MVP belongs to the No. 1 guy on this ballot, they both are worthy of the HOM.
7. Tommy John (6), Chic.– N.Y. (A) SP (’63-’89) (1997) – If you can maintain average for a quarter century, that’s just a different definition of greatness.
8. Jim Kaat (8), Minn. (A) SP (’61-’83) (1991) – Kaat would probably be in the Hall today if his ’62-’66-’74-’75 had instead occurred consecutively. His best seasons don’t seem to coincide with Minnesota’s best as a team in the ‘60s either. Value is value in my system, and this is where he deserves to rank.
9. Rusty Staub (9), Hou. – N.Y. (N), RF (’63-’81) (1996) – In my system, I have to take 9400 AB’s of 0.295 EQA over 6400 AB’s at 0.301. Wynn has the bigger peak, but Staub has 5 more seasons to his career.
10. Rick Reuschel (10), Chic. – S.F. (N) SP (’72-’90) (1996) – On the other hand, if Reuschel is going in first ballot, then it probably is a weak ballot. Nearly equals the value of Kaat in 700 fewer innings.
11. Jack Morris (11), Detr. (A) SP (’78-’94) (2001) – I like my system of discounting the pitchers for their “effort” at the bat, but Morris points out how I need to somehow discount the AL pitchers in the DH era. Morris is nearly equal to Reuschel in my system because of Rick’s lack of prowess at the plate. By eyeball, Jack might drop 2-3 spots because of this issue; he’s still ballot-worthy until I resolve the discrepancy.
12. Graig Nettles (12), N.Y. (A) 3B (’69-’88) (1997) – How can the Hall not find enough 3B to honor?
13. Charlie Hough (13), L.A. (N) – Tex. (A) SP (’70-’94) – Charlie, Dutch. Dutch, Charlie.
14. Dutch Leonard (14), Wash. (A) SP (’34-’53) (1972) – Amazing how valuable he was before and after the war, the lost time to injury in ’42 and the apparent effects of recovery in ’43-’44 keep him from the 15-18 votes that all his equals seem to be getting. Penalize one guy for playing too good during the war, penalize another for not playing good enough...
15. Dizzy Trout (15), Detr. (A) SP (’39-’52) (1967) – Bob Lemon was better than Dizzy Trout, but Lemon on the cusp while Trout isn’t even the best Dizzy according to the voters is too steep a drop IMO. It would take a war discount of close to 50% to drop him from my ballot, which is about 35-40% below what the quality drop-off actually was. Don’t penalize the players for being in their prime in ’42-’45.

Pete Browning – Much closer to the ballot than anyone else listed below, but even he’s only approx. low 20s-high 30s.
Dave Stieb – Just behind B.Bell in the Overall Ranking, but Koosman and Lolich top him in the pitching list as well – they’re not top 15 here either.
Charley Jones – He only has eight seasons that help his cause. Blackballed or not, he would need two Ruthian seasons in those missing years to make for an on/off ballot consideration. With realistic extra credit, he is just below 400 on the rankings.
Dick Redding – The bar for NeL pitchers has been set higher than this, IMO. The jump from Ray Brown to Bill Foster, Mendez and Redding will keep them all out of my Hall.
Roger Bresnahan – He may not be in my top ten catchers available.
Bob Johnson (1985) – It’s rather sad when I have to explain why players in the P-Hall aren’t on the ballot. Would you elect some of the pitchers above already?
Hugh Duffy – Doesn’t hold a candle to Van Haltren.


Seven players were in last year’s top ten, but not in my top 15 this year.
   74. andrew siegel Posted: July 29, 2007 at 08:55 PM (#2460816)
A quick, largely recut ballot as I'm in the midst of a whole set of real-life pressures.

(1) Ozzie Smith (new)--Enough offense for the last half of his career to have a very nice prime. Somewhere around 130 overall.

(2) Trammell (new)--Durability is the only knock. About 150 overall.

(3) Oms (3rd)--The contemporaries thought he was an All-Time great and the numbers (as thin as they are) back them up. Better than Dawson with both the glove and the bat.

(4) Bridges (2nd)--Like Cash, Schang, Ted Lyons, Roush, etc., he's underrated by our tendency to focus on seasonal numbers (so why so much love for Whitaker?). Put up lots of quality and sufficient quantity. I have him with 8 truly excellent seasons--no pitcher outside the HoM has more. I never thought he'd get this high on the ballot, but I see no reason to jump him just b/c/ he's now in an elect-me spot.

(5) Cash (4th)--Similar in career length, offensive value, and defensive value to Wynn but a smidge higher on all three according to WARP and more consistent to boot. Dan's study costs him a few points based on the ease of dominance in the 1960s AL, but others droped too. A lot like Hernandez, only in a substantially weaker league.

(6) Reggie Smith (5th)--Very similar on all dimensions to Cash and Wynn; similar offensively to Roush and Johnson. A bit more consistent than Wynn. More career value than Dale Murphy in a similar opportunity context.

(7) Leach (7th)--If you subtract Brooks Robinson's final useless seasons and project Leach's years out to 162 games, Robinson and Leach have almost identical EQA's and defensive rates in a very similar number of games. The only difference is that half of Leach's games were in CF rather than 3B. Hard to imagine that keeping him out of the HoM. A lot like Darrell Evans, only with contemporary reports that match his stellar defensive numbers.

(8) Dave Stieb (8th)--Best pitcher in the game briefly; lots of quality in a relatively few number of innings. As you can tell by my rankings of Bridges and Shocker, I like this profile better than most.

(9) Urban Shocker (9th)--Joe makes his case well. He didn't pitch a ton of innings or a ton of years but--when you combine durability and quality and adjust for defense--he was one of the best handful of pitchers in the game for a decade. A lot like Tommy Bridges or Dave Stieb.

(10) Bob Johnson (10th)--Doesn't jump out at you, but no major knocks on his resume--highest OWP of any long-career OF still on the board, over 300 WS with proper minor leaue credit even playing for bad teams, great consistency, excellent fielder for his position. Since his era and position are already well-represented and he doesn't have a great peak, he losses the most with Dan's numbers, but I still find him worthy.

(11) Elliot (11th)--My tools aren't good enough to distinguish between him and Boyer. Nettles, Bell, Bando, and Cey are also similar, but the glut of 3B in the 1970's suggests that something was different then than when Elliot (and perhaps Boyer) were playing.

(12) Ben Taylor (12th)--I missed the boat on him. I had him comped to Konetchy and, therefore, outside the top 50. But (1) I had Konetchy too low and (2) his offense was one rung better than Ed's. As a result, he is much closer to Hernandez or Cash. Might deserve to rank higher.

(13) Cravath (13th)--I give full minor league credit and see him as the best hitter not in HoM. The knock is that the other candidates for that title (folks like Tiernan, Charley Jones, Browning, Fournier, and Frank Howard) are much further down ballot.

(14) Dale Murphy (14th)--His case rests on six seasons. We have elected a bunch of guys who reached a similar plateau for seven years (e.g., Wynn) and rejected a number who were there for only four or five (e.g., Parker). Six seasons is a very close call.

(15) Frank Chance (15th)--Could just as easily be Duffy, Bancroft, Dawson, or a handful of others. In the end, I just think he was a more important player in the games he played than anyone below him on the ballot.


When you adjust Browning for league quality, you get a guy with a mid 140's OPS+ and roughly 9-plus years of playing time with limited defensive value. I have him somewhere between 45 and 60th.

Dick Redding is in the category of Negro Leaguers whose numbers don't back up their reputations. He doesn't crack my top 60.

I have nothing wrong to say about Hugh Duffy, Charley Jones, or Roger Bresnahan. They are all between 18 and 25 on my ballot. I just like others better.

With full credit, no regression for 1981, Dawson is a lot like Perez, though competition levels probably put him a fews spots ahead. That puts him 17th or 18th.
   75. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: July 29, 2007 at 11:15 PM (#2460946)
Whoa--Frank Tanana had some very good years, but a Sandy Koufax peak? Puh-leeze.
   76. EricC Posted: July 29, 2007 at 11:49 PM (#2460969)
2002 ballot.

1. Alan Trammell Top-half of HoMer. Maybe sabermetric types are too hard on the BBWAA for their HoF votes on borderline candidates, but Trammell is not borderline, and their failure to elect him is just wrong.

2. Wally Schang Correcting for the 154-game schedule and the WWI-shortened seasons, has as much career value as Freehan in as many games, at least by Win Shares. Schang's lesser season-by-season totals is because in-season catcher usage was lower during his time than afterwards. Is it fair to penalize him for that? A case where WARP is not as flattering as WS, perhaps accounting for Schang's lack of support.

3. Tommy John Career pitching candidate in the mold of Faber or E. Wynn. Kaat is also similar. I can see how some voters would not put Tommy John within a mile of their ballots; on the other hand, John's decent showing in the most recent mock BBWAA election shows that some level of support exists.

4. Brian Downing This is a vote that will raise eyebrows, I'm sure. I have double-checked the numbers, and did not find any errors or compelling reasons to change my methodology, although the subjective strangeness of the outcome makes me question most (1) whether the career value portion of DH-era players ratings should be docked because careers tended to be longer (2) whether being among the best DH in a season is worth as many peak points as I'm giving. He ends up so high from a combination of every quirk in my system breaking in his favor: catcher "bonus" for the catcher years, treatment of DH as a position in itself, population-based timelining, and consideration of league strength/effect of DH in a league.

5. Jack Clark Most similar players: R. Smith, Burkett, Heilmann, Cepeda, Singleton A "tweener" career that was good enough for long enough to land on my ballot.

6. Ozzie Smith Clearly a HoMer to me, but not in an elect-me spot. In the continuum of below-average offense, good-glove, long career players, what is the separation between the Aparcio's and Maranville's and Ozzie really enough that Ozzie should do so much better than the others?

7. Rusty Staub Looks like career >> peak to me. Will not help my consensus score, as similar players are the very very good types who don't make the HoM (or the HoF, unless they attain magic numbers like 3000 hits). I should call the bats that crowd the middle to bottom of my ballot "quadruple-A HoM candidates". Why did Dw. Evans get elected to the HoM, and not Staub?

8. Norm Cash Among better 1B most seasons 1960-1971, and occasional all-star level. More consistent than Cepeda, but less playing time per season.

9. Orlando Cepeda Among better 1B most of years during 1959-1967 and occasionally all-star level; career totals padded 1968-1974. Cepeda, Cash, and F. Howard are a set of near-exact contemporary "bat" candidates who played in the 1960s, a tricky era in which to judge the potential bottom-half-of-the-HoM "bats".

10. Lance Parrish Had two or three excellent seasons, but his career was greater than his peak. An offensive plus who caught many games; 5th all-time in HR as a C; played in strong leagues. These credentials help place him on my catcher-heavy ballot.

11. Elston Howard Multiple years of all star play at catcher; 1961-1964 "workload" also noteworthy. A peak that few catchers have attained, but very little outside the peak.

12. Reggie Smith Among better RF most years during the 1970s; respectable career totals; played CF in addition to RF. One stat that I've tabulated for fun is career Win Shares times career WS per plate appearance. It's not a perfect stat, but does correlate well with HoM selections. In this measure, Reggie Smith is the highest unelected player. That doesn't prove that he's a HoMer, but does suggest searching for reasons for his lack of support: (1) he's a 'tweener' between peak and career; (2) he missed a lot of playing time so that while his rate stats were always well above average, they don't show always lead to high season-by-season totals for those who look at things that way (3) he split defense among several positions; some may be rating him as a RF and neglecting his CF play.

13. Mickey Vernon Did have some all-star type seasons at 1B, but basically a "career" candidate all the way. Credit for two years missed to WWII, and belief that pre-expansion 1950s baseball had some of the toughest competiton of all time, based on teams/population. Among top contenders for "Hall of Fame chance hurt by WWII", as listed in Bill James' NBJHBA.

14. Ken Singleton Multiple all star-type seasons 1975-1979; MVP level 1977 season. Very durable in 1972-1983 prime; not much outside this. List of similar players suggests that he will not make it to the HoM easily, if at all.

15. Gene Tenace Consistent, high secondary average, run producing catcher. Would appear to be clearly below the consensus in/out line for catchers, but I rate catchers higher than most.

Puckett 16th, Bresnahan 18th (but Schang was superior; as the 1900s NL was weak and the 1910s AL strong); Dawson 23rd. Dawson appears firmly among the top of the HoVG.

I have Bill Byrd a touch above Redding, and Sol White as the unelected NeL candidate that I rate the highest.

Bucky Walters's case has issues of quality vs. career length, and WWII level of competition. Ultimately not enough high-quality seasons for my taste.

Bob Johnson: on the basis of his major league record (WWII seasons must be appropriately discounted), definitely not a HoMer, therefore, supporters must be giving him extra credit. Sam Rice is a more deserving late starter.

Pete Browning: see recent entry on Browning thread for translated stats giving him an estimated 145 OPS+. Like Hack Wilson with the bat, not durable, terrible defense, terrible baserunner. His election will be viewed as the HoM's biggest mistake.

Charley Jones was better than Browning, but beware those AA years.

I like Dave Stieb a lot, but Stieb, Cone, Key, and Saberhagen are birds of a feather. Stieb doesn't rise enough above the rest.

Tony Perez has some similarities to Staub. I prefer Staub, who hit better over more PA.

Duffy had an excellent peak/prime by some measures. Note quite long/strong enough for me.
   77. Howie Menckel Posted: July 30, 2007 at 12:13 AM (#2460993)
Sorry it took me quite a while this time...


2002 ballot - our 105th

I had last year's electees Winfield-Whitaker-Randolph at 1-2-10 on my ballot. An unusually high number of my old-time favorites have been elected, so modern candidates will do fairly well on my ballot in some years.

The annual fine print: Overall, I think there is too much emphasis on WARP3 and WS, which are intriguing tools but which are not yet sufficiently mature.
So my preference for ERA+ and OPS+ helps, I think, as a reality check. Increasingly, I've had to adjust for PAs/IP per season, not really an issue in earlier years when nearly all star players played almost every day or pitched a ton of innings.
I tend to be mostly prime-oriented with hitters, prime and career with pitchers. But a huge peak sometimes catches my eye, and a remarkably long hitting career also works for me.

1. ALAN TRAMMELL - Six OPS+s of 130 or better, and a 7th at 120, for a SS who can field, too. What more can you want? Also a 114 and a 113, and he's an asset in his 5 seasons of 89 to 99 OPS+ as well. Durability is a fair knock, yes, and keeps him from being mentioned with some of the higher-tier HOM SSs. But he's got enough to lead this ballot.
2. OZZIE SMITH - Defensive numbers accurately reflect the spectacular range that made him such a key player. OPS+ doesn't completely capture his running game, but he only had 111-05-05-02 as his best years. To be fair there's also 99-98-97-96, but Trammell was more impressive even after Ozzie's deserved boost for fielding even above Trammell's level as well as his superior durability. I have no qualms about inducting Ozzie, who I think was more valuable defensively than earlier SSs who get votes- and more longevity than most.
3. DAVE STIEB - Who knew that Nolan Ryan was better than Stieb not by peak or by prime - so that he needed 'career' to win the day? Ryan has more of the durable seasons, and a half-dozen 100-110 ERA+s of an edge on Stieb. Not as massive a gap here as others may perceive. I have Stieb's best 6-7 years right at the Bunning-Pierce level, which is HOM-endorsed both by me and by the electorate. See Stieb's thread for my comments on why he is better than Bridges.

4. PETE BROWNING - Stubbornly holding on. Look at the 1890 PL season. Browning, at age 29, leads the league in adj OPS+ by 13 pts over 32-yr-old HOMer Connor, followed by a 22-yr-old Beckley and HOMers Ewing, Brouthers, Gore, O'Rourke at 6-7-8-9. Ewing is 30, Brouthers is 32, Gore is 33, O'Rourke is 39. Browning by all accounts is 'an old 29' due to his health and alcohol problems. Yet in his chance to play in a HOMer-laden league, he dominates. Yet I am supposed to assume that as a younger player he wouldn't have been able to post big numbers in the NL rather than the AA? Seven OPS+s above 163. 10 seasons as a regular, a good number for the era. This lousy fielder played some 16 pct of his career in the infield. Given the era, how much did he really hurt his team in the field? Not as much as some think; it was a different game then.
5. KIRBY PUCKETT - This was a close call. Good prime for a CF, but not amazing. If I wasn't sold on him being an excellent defensive CF in his first 6-8 years, he'd drop quite a bit. It's that tight. I'll pass on the intangibles, but he holds his own against BobBonds offensively, for instance, and has just enough at the finish line to pass DaMurphy on long prime.
6. BOB JOHNSON - I really like this sort of consistency over an endless span, though I'd hardly say he's a 'must-elect.' Sort of the Joe Gordon of OFs in career shape, or a slightly longer and flatter version of Kiner. I am concerned by 1944 being his highest OPS+; seems like he took advantage of the weak competition, so I discount that a bit. But has more than a decade's worth of excellent hitting, for a prime that I like better than Van Haltren's or almost any other holdover's.
7. CANNONBALL DICK REDDING - A longtime favorite who has climbed his way back onto my ballot in recent years. I liked him as an all-around candidate, but the HOF research suggests he's more of a peak guy. Those types don't always fare well with me, but with the so-so ballot, to be fair I think he belongs here.
8. BOB ELLIOTT - Six seasons of at least 134 OPS+, ALL of them as a 3B. Wish he'd played all 3B and not much OF, but c'est le vie - Sewell seemed to get treated as a full SS by some. Beats out HOMer Boyer (see Boyer thread for details) and compares remarkably well with HOMer Santo as a hitter (see Santo thread for more details). Better than HOMer Hack as well, and better than HOMer DaEvans (see DaEvans thread).
9. ROGER BRESNAHAN - Back on the ballot a few years ago after a long drought. Was discarded long ago by me when I liked many other careers better; a fresh look against this pack is enlightening. C and CF combo is fascinating; seems like he was an outstanding all-around player. Just wish he had one more big year, but I can say that about most of the ballot.
10. BEN TAYLOR - Have meant to reconsider him for years; finally did so this time. Long career, excellent fielder, consistent player. I'm not 100 pct sold on the hitting MLEs, but very good reputation and for sure a quality player. I'll try him out here this year.
11. GRAIG NETTLES - 3rd time on my ballot, moves up a few places this year. Very good fielder with nine seasons of 100 to 115 OPS+ as a regular, and outstanding from 1976-78
12. VIC WILLIS - Won a recent SP bakeoff with Grimes and Walters, with slightly more career than Walters and better peak than Grimes. It's close, but I'll stick with Willis for another year.
13. ORLANDO CEPEDA - Suddenly popped up on my ballot 5 years ago with the reevaluation. Had been losing out to Perez with positional consideration, but closer look shows a sterling top-4 and top-10 offensive line. DH opportunity added nothing to his case.
14. REGGIE SMITH - Climbs back on the ballot after winning a reeval 2 years ago vs. Jack Clark. Played a lot of CF, and quietly was one of the better OFs of his era. If he's closer to Puckett defensively than I think, then I have to reevaluate. But I don't think so.
15. DAVE CONCEPCION - First time on my ballot. Peak is as good or better than Fox's; not quite as consistent, but a slick fielder and a very useful offensive weapon many times. Not fully buying the "other teams were stupid enough to play ciphers at the position" argument; that helped the Reds win pennants, but Concepcion can't get full credit for that stupidity. Similar case to Bancroft, whose prime I preferred last year to Concepcion's length. It's close.


NEWBIE
ANDRE DAWSON - I'm a big fan of Andre Dawson, and I want to vote for him, but I can't just yet. Similar prime to Puckett and Staub, and I rank him in between, and below Smith. Staub doesn't get a fielding bump, Smith doesn't get much but he was a better hitter, Dawson gets some, but not a ton - yet. Puckett gets more fielding bump. Dawson will need more before I can vote for him.

JUST MISSED
DAVE BANCROFT - Not sure if I ever voted for him before 2 years ago. But look at the prime: fantastic fielder at SS, with OPS+s of 120-19-19-09-09-09-04. Won a fresh 3-way evaluation vs Fox and Concepcion a year ago. Similar to Randolph, but an SS, so maybe Bancroft gets the nod next time.
FRANK HOWARD - I had forgotten how spectacular his peak was, and his career tally - 142 OPS+ in nearly 8000 PA. Yes, he suffers due to defense - he could make a case for ranking No. 1 if he could field! Best-3 seasons - 177-70-70 in 1968-70, with almost 2100 PA total - make these other guys look like banjo hitters.
BURLEIGH GRIMES - Compare to Ruffing, Rixey, Wynn and other such HOM pitchers - ok, Sutton, too. I dismissed him as short of Rixey and Ruffing, and he was. But he's just one 130 ERA+ year short of climbing a little higher on this ballot. Better peak than Tommy John, and a lot more durable relative to his era.
LUIS TIANT - Looks like he has the peak at first glance, but notice that the IP just aren't quite there. Plenty good when he did pitch, but with that lack of innings you have to be even more dominant. Maybe he winds up as the era's last P electee, but probably not.
RON CEY - In the past I have had him over Nettles and Bell and nearly on the ballot, but that's because I may like his fielding better than most. Closest of the trio to Bando in hitting. Talk me into voting for him.

AMONG THE TOP 10 RETURNEES, BUT I'M NOT VOTING FOR THEM
GAVVY CRAVATH - Yes, he took great advantage of the Baker Bowl, but I think others would have as well. I like him and have voted for him, but he's fallen a little out of favor at late. May yet get back onto the ballot.
BUCKY WALTERS - Two best seasons were not war-related, so that helps me buy into the idea that he'd have had two more really good ones regardless. Really about a 130-140 ERA+ season or two short of my usual standard, but the pool is getting pretty thin. Seems to be grabbing away the "last pitcher" slot from MWelch on occasion. No full penalty for the great defense, but it's an issue.
HUGH DUFFY - Perhaps Win Shares' most embarrassing error. The Roger Maris of the turn of the century - wait, Roger had TWO great seasons and was a good fielder, too.
CHARLEY JONES - Some sympathy for the contract issues, but it's just not the same as going to war or being the 'wrong' skin color. Therefore, I see his career as too short.
   78. Sean Gilman Posted: July 30, 2007 at 01:56 AM (#2461064)
Pete Browning: see recent entry on Browning thread for translated stats giving him an estimated 145 OPS+. Like Hack Wilson with the bat, not durable, terrible defense, terrible baserunner. His election will be viewed as the HoM's biggest mistake.

See the thread where those estimates originated to find a few of the criticisms of their methodology, along with a revised career OPS+ for Browning.

Where's the evidence that Browning was a terrible baserunner? That's a new one.

The Hack Wilson comparison is old and pointless. Wilson isn't a HOMer because his career was very short relative to his era, not because his career OPS+ was too low.

When did it become acceptable to repeatedly label candidates "the HOM's biggest mistake"? What is it about Pete Browning that causes such a nasty lack of humility from his detractors?

Of course, even Browning's "translated" career OPS+ is still higher than Brian Downing's best. Downing's defense and baserunning must make up quite a bit of that gap.
   79. Mark Donelson Posted: July 30, 2007 at 02:09 AM (#2461073)
What is it about Pete Browning that causes such a nasty lack of humility from his detractors?

Probably the fact that he's very close to being elected. I remember similar vitriol from a few of the career voters when it became clear Hughie Jennings was unlikely to be stopped, and there were a few "biggest mistake" comments about Beckley as his election (finally) drew near--though I think we were all so happy for karlmagnus by that time that that one was a bit milder.
   80. Chris Cobb Posted: July 30, 2007 at 03:15 AM (#2461122)
2002 Ballot

My 100th HoM ballot!

Review of my ranking methodology. I base my rankings on three measures: career, total value above average, and peak rate, which I calculate in both WARP1 and WS, adjusting WS in various ways for pre-1930 players. Giving equal weight to each system, I rank players against their immediate contemporaries (grouped by the decade in which they had the most value). I then calculate percentage value above or below the approximate in-out line for that decade (which is set based on number of ML and NeL teams and population factors) and use that percentage to integrate the decade-by-decade rankings. Then I make subjective adjustments. I have recently become concerned at the impact of the very-low-replacement level of both WARP1 and WS on my rankings. I include a rate stat in my system, but I am not confident that it compensates sufficiently for the overvaluing of pure playing time by the comprehensive metrics. I haven’t had time to revamp my system to adjust replacement level yet, but one of my subjective adjustments identifies players who are likely to be overrated somewhat for this reason. I have begun using Dan R’s wins above replacement as a tool for this purpose also. Long-career, strong-defense infielders have benefited from this. I have figured out how to scale Dan R’s WAR to fit neatly into my system, so I hope use his analysis to strengthen my rankings more systematically soon.

(#) = Last year’s ranking
% = percentage above below approximate in-out line value for the player’s decade.

1. Ozzie Smith (n/e). % = 1.1543. Leads a trio of shortstops at the top of my ballot this year. Greatest defensive player of all time plus about average offensive value is good for #1 this year.
2. Alan Trammell (n/e). % = 1.1114. Very slightly behind Ozzie. A more complete player, but that doesn’t make him better, as such. In-season durability is also an edge for Ozzie.
3. Dave Bancroft (3). % = 1.0463. If he could have stayed in the lineup more, we’d have elected him long ago, as he was a slightly better ballplayer than Sewell with a longer career. But having few seasons of 145+ games hurts him.
4. Alejandro Oms (4) % = 1.0407. Oms has a long, strong primes without a great peak, like most of the top candidates in my backlog pool, such as Fingers, Bancroft, Randolph, and Leach.
5. Tommy Leach (6). % = 1.0381. Outstanding player for a long time. Andrew Siegel’s brief analysis of his case is excellent, and Dan R’s war2 shows that his play in relatively high SD leagues was still very valuable.
6. Tommy John (7). % = 1.0308. He doesn’t have a great peak, but his 12-14 year prime is about as good as any eligible pitcher’s, and he adds another 4-6 good years on top of that. He is the Jake Beckley of pitchers, and he ranks about where Beckley ranked before his recent election.
7. Andre Dawson (n/e). % = 1.0832. A bit overrated in my system, but he was a good to great player for sixteen years, 1977-92, which gives him a truly outstanding career. He was not quite as good as Puckett or Bobby Bonds over their twelve-year primes, but he wasn’t far off their value, and the additional four prime years put him ahead. He’s only a little bit ahead of them, really, but the ballot is very closely packed.
8. Rabbit Maranville (8) % = 1.1502. An all-time great defensive shortstop who hit enough in his prime to play at a consistent, all-star level. Current leader among eligible players in career WARP1 even without war credit for 1918 (which he also merits), he is the only long-career shortstop between Wagner and Appling. RCAP study indicates that my system overvalues him, but he still has a strong career argument.
9. Buddy Bell (9). % = 1.0349. Better than I realized. Both WARP and WS love his defense, and he’s on the good side of the in-out line by both metrics in my system. Very similar to Nettles, but his defensive excellence appears to have lasted longer. I have ranked him below what his percentile ranking suggests because I am not exactly sure where the in-out line for the 1980s will end up. Right now that in-out line is quite low, but it could rise as I finish evaluating that decade’s candidates.
10. Graig Nettles (10). % = 1.00. Great defender, decent hitter for a long time. Looks identical to Bell in overall merit, and I prefer both to Nellie Fox. It’s fitting that it has worked out so that they are arriving on my ballot together. I might resort to the archaic practice of splitting my #15 vote rather than putting one on the ballot and one off.
11. Lance Parrish (11). % = 1.0227. A profile rather similar to Nettles: long career at a high defense position, low BA but good power. He wasn’t as good defensively as Nettles, however, relative to his position, so I’m starting him below Nettles. Parrish could move quite a bit before it’s time to vote, as his case is compelling me to reexamine the case of Thurman Munson.
12. Bus Clarkson (12). % = 1.00. Lots of discussion of his new MLEs has ended with his value looking about like it did before the revision, in my view. His career profile reminds me a lot of Darrell Evans, with a little more defense a little less offensive peak (though with regression it’s hard to judge peak). Both he and Evans were very good hitters all through their 30s because they really developed their “old player skills” of plate discipline and power in ways that offset their decline in other areas. It’s also the case, of course, that he’s similar to Perez, another power hitter who shifted from 3B to 1B in the course of his career. Perez shifted over at 30, though, while Evans made the shift at around 35, and Clarkson would have shifted over at 35-37. His fielding, then, gives him the edge over Perez.
13. Dave Stieb (13). % = 1.00. I agree with Eric C. that he was the best pitcher in his league for the first half of the 1980s. This is a weak crop of pitchers, but I think it was also a hard time on pitchers. My review of pitchers has set out to make cross-era head-to-head comparisons more feasible by using normalized innings pitched. Without normalization, Stieb’s prime is as good as that of any eligible pitcher. With normalization, he rises to the top.
14. Charley Jones (14). % = 1.00. Back on my ballot after the 1999 star glut has mostly cleared. I give him 2+ years credit for the blacklisting. The only player on the ballot with an argument to have been the best player in baseball at his peak. Flipping him with Bonds this year. We are seeing more and more players who are about Bonds’ equal from the 1970s and 1980s: Jones stands out a lot more among his contemporaries, I think. I am seeing him closer to the Jimmy Wynn model.
15. Bobby Bonds (15) % = 1.0184. Similar to Jimmy Wynn, but not as strong a peak.

2002 Off-Ballot, Sitting on the All-Time in-out Line

16. Burleigh Grimes (16). % = 1.00. Biggest beneficiary of my pitcher review. I found two mathematical errors in my calculations that had knocked him significantly downward. The correction of the errors has him looking very similar, if not superior, to Rixey and Faber. I am moving him up significantly, though I’m not quite ready to put him onto the ballot, and I don’t think he is superior to Stieb or John in any case. Had a strong 14 year prime, in which he was a huge workhorse, but his value before and after his prime was minimal. John’s better career pushes him ahead, and Stieb’s 14-year career is better than Grimes’ 14-year prime.
17. Kirby Puckett (17). % = .9687. My system sees him as on the outside looking in, but I am inclined to conclude that it unfairly penalizes him a little bit for not having a decline phase. It’s easy to compare him to Dale Murphy, Bobby Bonds, and Jimmy Wynn, because all of them had 12 year primes, and the three who played longer were all but worthless outside of those 12 years. I’d take Puckett over Murphy. Murphy’s durability advantage comes out to 4 games a year. Puckett was better defensively. Murphy has a higher offensive peak, but not by all that much, and Puckett was a better hitter overall because Murphy tailed off so badly. Murphy’s tailoff doesn’t put him quite as far behind Puckett as you might think, though, because Kirby was nothing special with the stick until he learned to hit for power in his third season. For career, Kirby and Bonds senior are equal offensively. Puckett is ahead on durability and defense, though I think Bonds could have been more valuable defensively if he had played the first half of his career for a team that didn’t have Willie Mays and Garry Maddox lined up to play centerfield. Bonds had a slightly better peak, though, because he put his offensive and defensive best performances together a bit better than Puckett did. Also, Bonds showed he could shine _anywhere_,while Puckett has the baggydome question mark. Of course, Puckett has the team leader intangibles that Bonds manifestly lacks. Anyway, I’m placing Puckett between Bonds and Murphy.
18. Tony Perez (18). % = 1.0327. Dan R’s replacement-level study drops Perez somewhat in my estimation. I’m grouping him more closely now with Cash and Staub.
19. Norm Cash. (19) % = 1.0098. A dark-horse candidate. Below Bell and Nettles on league-strength considerations.
20. Dale Murphy (20). % = 1.0020. Similar to Bobby Bonds and Charley Jones, relatively short career, high peak outfielders, with very good defense at their best. He’s a bit behind those two because his prime was shorter, and his peak was only a little higher. His peak rate is actually lower than Bonds’. He has excellent seasonal win share totals, but that is partly a factor of durability. Durability is good, but WS too-low replacement levels make durability overrated by many voters.
   81. Chris Cobb Posted: July 30, 2007 at 03:16 AM (#2461123)
21. Rusty Staub (21) % = 1.0457. My system argues for a higher placement than I have given Staub, but few players that I have ranked have added more career value in a series of below-average seasons, so I believe my system overrates him. He was legitimately outstanding during his peak in Montreal, however, so he should be in the mix. A career-slice approach suggests that the contemporary “bat” players to whom he is closest in value are Bonds and Norm Cash, so I am ranking him just a little below the two of them. His profile is also a lot like Jimmy Ryan’s, actually, which provides another justification for ranking him about here, just a half dozen spots ahead of the best outfielder from the 1890s still eligible.
22. Gavvy Cravath (22). % = 1.00. Not as well-rounded as Roush, Oms, Minoso, and Wynn, not as strong on peak as Keller, Kiner, or Jones. But still a tremendous hitter whose value has been overlooked. Slips a little bit as a result of recent discussions, which have made me fairly certain that he does not have a hidden peak in his AA years, but was a pretty similar player then to what he was in Philadelphia. I am therefore having a harder time seeing what makes him better than Bob Johnson.
23. Luis Tiant (23). % = 1.0024. My review of pitchers puts my assessment of him more into line with Joe Dimino’s. Tiant was highly effective, but not especially durable for his time, and not notably more effective than the more durable Stieb. His extended prime was no better than Tommy John’s. I still have him worthy of election, but I’m no longer pushing his candidacy by voting for him.
24. Joe Tinker (24). % = 1.00. Looks like Ozzie Smith, but with only 3/4 of Ozzie’s career.
25. Bob Johnson (25). % = 1.00. Back on my radar
26. Reggie Smith (26) % = .9791. Dan R’s numbers bring him back into my potentially electable group. His case is still much weakened by seasonal durability issues and by a Dw. Evanseque divide between fielding peak and batting peak, but he was an above average player for a long time, and hardly ever had a bad year.
27. Dom Dimaggio (27). % = 1.00. Likewise.
28. Jimmy Ryan (28). % = 1.00. The best of the remaining 1890s outfielders.
29. Herman Long (29). % = 1.0192. His case is of the same sort as Maranville’s, but he was not as brilliant a fielder and had a shorter career, so when Maranville drops to where Long was, Long drops to the all-time in-out line or thereabouts. Dan R’s numbers on Long are not encouraging, so he slips a bit his year.
30. Dick Redding (30). % = 1.00. None of the additional, reliable data provided by Gary A. shows Redding to be pitching at a level that looks worthy of the HoM. None of the years reputed to be his best are part of this additional documentation, but the more data that shows him looking like a pitcher who was a bit above average in the NeL and, therefore, about average in the ML, the more his case is weakened, in my view. I’m not dropping him out of the picture altogether, but I’m putting him, for the moment at the bottom of the borderline-in group of players. It seems probable to me now that, unless the trend in evidence turns, he will drop further. It’s very hard for me right now, for instance, to accept that he was probably better than Urban Shocker and Don Newcombe. My pitching review hasn’t gotten as far as the Negro-League pitchers, but I’m doubtful it will help his case. I hope I will have time to do that review before he is elected. If it doesn’t happen this year, there should be a couple years of breathing room.

------------- Below the Line by no more than 5% ----------------

31. Bill Monroe .9922
32. Don Newcombe .9886
33. Urban Shocker .9867
34. Carlos Moran xxxx. This is a very preliminary placement, pending the completion of my study of him and a further look at Bill Monroe, whose case has also been reopened by new statistical analysis. Moran is in the neighborhood of Tommy Leach, Monroe, and Johnny Evers. I have Leach somewhat ahead (and on ballot) due to better career value, so Moran’s initial placement is halfway between Monroe and Evers. I hope to have him more definitely placed before the next round of balloting for 2001.
35. George Burns .9879
36. Willie Davis .9896
37. Ron Cey .9800
38. Ken Singleton .9780
39. Johnny Evers .9779
40. Fielder Jones .9778
41. Bruce Sutter .9755
42. Ron Guidry .9735. Great peak. I don’t know why the peak pitching voters aren’t giving him any support. I’d take him, on peak, over either Bucky Walters or Lefty Gomez. I’m inclined to move him up, but more study is needed.
43. Lave Cross .9709
44. Hugh Duffy .9686
45. Johnny Pesky .9676
46. Ben Taylor .9667
47. Cy Seymour .9665
48. Rick Reuschel .9657. I still don’t see what Joe sees, but the pitching review is still in progress.
49. Dick Bartell .9653
50. Frank Tanana. .9637
51. Jim Kaat .9631.
52. George Van Haltren .9538
53. Larry Doyle .9614
54. Bobby Veach .9609
55. Buzz Arlett .9602
56. Vada Pinson .9599
57. Dave Parker .9593.
58. Jose Cruz .9587.
59. Jack Clark .9564.
60. Leroy Matlock .9544
61. Tommy Bond .9511

Returning top 10 not on my ballot:

Eight of the returning top ten are not on my ballot, though several are close. Redding and Walters are not the starting pitchers most deserving of support, nor are Johnson, Puckett, or Cravath the most deserving at their positions, though they would not be bad choices. Bresnahan is clearly the best at his position for his era, which gives him a reasonable case, but he just didn’t play enough, even adjusted for the standards of his time. Browning and Duffy would be mistakes. In general, I think the electorate is undervaluing long-career, high-defense infielders who lack the gaudy win share seasonal totals that win the admiration of peak voters. But win shares seriously undervalues these players because (1) its batting replacement level is WAY too low, so players get too much “showing up credit,” which is easier for outfielders to accrue than infielders and (2) its range of fielding values is too compressed, so that excellent fielding is undervalued. This infielder group is most disadvantaged by this mistake, so my ballot is filling up with players of this type, as I wait for a seismic shift in the electorate. More detailed comments on the returning top 10 left off my ballot follow.

Pete Browning. % = .8920. Yes, he was an outstanding hitter, but his eye-popping years were all in the weakest major leagues of all time (excepting the UA), he was not an asset on defense, he was not durable within seasons, and his career was short. He is not near my top 50 eligibles. My system sees him as having a case similar to Frank Howard and Rocky Colavito. They have arguments, but they are nevertheless clearly on the outside looking in. There was a bit of talk about “our biggest mistake” election. The only two choices we have made that I see as clear “mistakes” are Bill Terry and Sam Thompson, with Thompson being the bigger of the two. Browning is distinctly less qualified than Thompson. All three players were overrated, I think, because they have very gaudy batting statistics that aren’t as meritorious as they appear. It looks like he will be elected this year, though.

Dick Redding. See #30 above.

Roger Bresnahan. % = .9435. Agreed that Bresnahan was the best catcher of his era and the only catcher from the aughts with a legitimate case. If he hadn’t become a player-manager, he might have logged enough playing time to be a HoMer. I don’t see him as a terrible choice by any means—he was an impact player—but among unelected stars of the aughts I think the infielders Leach, Evers, Moran, and Tinker all have better cases.

Bob Johnson. See #25 above. I’m actually rather pleased to see Johnson in the returning top 10. He was unfairly neglected for many years after he first became eligible, and I was among those who didn’t give him as much support as he merited. I’m not advocating his election, but I don’t see him as a bad choice. If I had a pHOM, which I might get around to creating once we are caught up to the present, I would guess that Johnson would have a good shot at entry during a backlog year between 2007 and 2012.

Hugh Duffy. % = .9686. He looks a lot like Cy Seymour to me, and Cy Seymour isn’t drawing so much HoM support. Ranks 44th at present.

Bucky Walters. % = .9387. Walters’ prominence in the rankings derives from his peak value. His peak was strong, but outside of his peak he was not much better than an average pitcher. His hitting compensates somewhat, but his last excellent years need a discount for wartime competition. If I were ranking purely on best seven consecutive years, he might make my ballot, but he would still be behind Ron Guidry and Dave Stieb.

Kirby Puckett. See #17 above. Would be a reasonable choice.

Gavvy Cravath. See #22 above.


Other New Eligibles Meriting Comment:

Tim Wallach % = .8079. A very good player. Great defensive third basemen, good hitter at his best, bad at his worst. Graig Nettles/Buddy Bell lite.

Lenny Dykstra. A bit below the value of player for which I do a full work-up, but worthy of mention as one of the more colorful characters in recent baseball history.
   82. Howie Menckel Posted: July 30, 2007 at 03:23 AM (#2461132)
Congrats to the 100th ballot for Chris Cobb, one of our most meritorious voters ever - in spite of his brickbats this year for Pete Browning!

:)
   83. Juan V Posted: July 30, 2007 at 03:27 AM (#2461134)
I have figured out how to scale Dan R’s WAR to fit neatly into my system, so I hope use his analysis to strengthen my rankings more systematically soon.


Does this mean you have figured out how to put Dan's WAR in a scale similar to WARP/Win Shares? If so, can you share this?
   84. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: July 30, 2007 at 03:46 AM (#2461139)
If you just subtract 2.5-3 wins per 162 games from BP WARP1 (afters atraight-line adjusting it for season length), you'll get a scale very similar to my WARP1.
   85. Chris Cobb Posted: July 30, 2007 at 04:02 AM (#2461147)
Does this mean you have figured out how to put Dan's WAR in a scale similar to WARP/Win Shares? If so, can you share this?

Yes, but only within the context of my system, which looks at career value above replacement, career value above average, and peak rate above replacement. Dan R's WAR is intended to show value above replacement, so it gives career value above replacement and peak rate values easily. What I did to fit with my system was figure out a decent way to calculate value above an average position player on a per-season basis, giving me the third number I needed to match my system. I then worked out a constant to subtract from WS/3 and WARP1 totals in my system to scale them more evenly with Dan R's WAR totals in my system. If you'd like more details on how I did this, I can give them, but I doubt they are useful outside the context of the system.

Dan R's ct in 84 is surely better general guidance, though I'll add that if you divide WS by 3 and then subtract, you can also scale WS similarly, though its balance of batting vs fielding value is so different that without additional manipulation of high-defense positions, the results will not be all that close to W1 or WAR.

Congrats to the 100th ballot for Chris Cobb, one of our most meritorious voters ever - in spite of his brickbats this year for Pete Browning!

Thanks, Howie! I was sorry to pile on with negative (though I hope not vitriolic) comments immediately following Sean's query about why so much animus is directed at Browning, but I have to say I favor his election less than anyone who has previously been on the cusp of induction.
   86. Andrew M Posted: July 30, 2007 at 04:25 AM (#2461161)
2002 Ballot

1. Alan Trammell
2. Ozzie Smith
Trammell was better with a bat in his hand; Ozzie was better at everything else, including staying on the field. But Trammell was much better with a bat in his hand, so he gets my vote.

3. Larry Doyle. Arguably the best offensive player on the best offensive team in the league 1911-1913. Doyle had a career OPS+ of 126, and was consistently in the NL top 10 in HRs and slugging pct. He also won an MVP award and was an 8-time STATS NL all-star. By all accounts played extremely hard and captained the team for several years. Let’s call his fielding erratic and note also that his teams won a lot of games with his erratic fielding.

4. Bob Johnson. I have a hard time ranking the dozen or so OFs clustered in the 300 WS/100 WARP range. Johnson, though, seems slightly more meritorious than the rest: Career OPS+ 138, 10 times in AL top 10. EQA .308 compares favorably to other OF candidates. Also had a good glove.

5. Tommy Bridges. Despite finishing in the AL top 10 in innings five times, he was not much of a workhorse. When he did pitch, though, he was very good. He finished his career with just fewer than 3,000 IP and his top ERA+ season is 147. Also in his favor, he’s probably missing 360 or so innings from 1944 and 45, and he had six seasons in which his ERA+ was between 140 and 147 (and ten seasons in which he was in the top 10 in the AL.)

6. Dave Bancroft. Great glove, above average hitter, walked a lot. Had some durability issues, but ended up with over 110 WARP(1) and had a couple of 10+ WARP seasons, including one (1921) where one could reasonably argue that he was more valuable than any position player in the NL not named Rogers Hornsby.

7. Luis Tiant. An odd career. Had the misfortune to have his best season the same year as McLain won 31 games. I’d argue Tiant was the better pitcher that year--though it’s close when you account for McLain’s 336 innings and organ playing. Was then injured for a few years before coming back and having several excellent seasons for the Red Sox in the mid 70s.

8. Tommie Leach. Reevaluated onto the ballot. Played two important defensive positions well and generated a decent amount of offensive value while doing it.

9. Dave Stieb. Career is a little on the short side, but another one of the peak/prime pitchers who had a couple of years when they could be considered the best pitcher in the league.

10. Phil Rizzuto. Great glove, probably not as good a hitter as Bancroft. Missing essentially 4 seasons at age 25-28.

11. George J. Burns. Rarely missed a game, got on base a lot, could field and run, had 3 MVP caliber seasons (1914, 1917, 1919) and averaged close to 27 Win Shares a season for a decade. It isn’t a stretch to think of him as having been best OF in the NL from 1913-1920, which is impressive in any era and league.

12. Tony Perez. Separates himself from the 1B pack by having a pretty good glove at 3B for 5 full seasons. Hung around long enough to accumulate almost 11,000 PAs, but his rate numbers would look better had he retired at age 35.

13. Dale Murphy. Posted 4 30+ WS seasons (and 5 10+ WARP) seasons between 1980-1987. Rarely missed a game.

14. Bob Elliott. Best 3B in the NL from 1943-50. Consistently ranked in the top 10 in the NL in WS and OPS+ over that period. Above average glove.

15. Urban Shocker. If you spend enough time looking at Bridges, Tiant, Walters, and Stieb, sooner or later you need to account for Shocker. So here he is. Got a late start, but was a very effective pitcher literally until the year he died.

Next 12 in no real order
Addie Joss
Ken Singleton
Hugh Duffy
Vern Stephens
Roger Bresnahan
Bucky Walters
Tommy John
Dick Redding
Alexander Oms
Dave Concepcion
Jimmy Ryan
Charley Jones

Required disclosures:
Dick Redding. I’ve had him on and off the ballot over the years. He got bumped off this week, but I think he’s a solid candidate.
Browning and Jones. Too many questions, too many other candidates—though I like Jones a lot more.
Roger Bresnahan. I’d like him better had he played more games at catcher or if there was more evidence that he was a good catcher.
Hugh Duffy. So likeable the German fans in Milwaukee nicknamed him “Duffmeier.” On the other hand, I like him almost exactly as much as I like Jimmy Ryan and GVH.
   87. Howie Menckel Posted: July 30, 2007 at 04:40 AM (#2461168)
"I was sorry to pile on with negative (though I hope not vitriolic) comments immediately following Sean's query about why so much animus is directed at Browning, but I have to say I favor his election less than anyone who has previously been on the cusp of induction."

Nah, it's fine.
Browning clearly is very borderline, like all of our "30 pct approval rating" candidates.
You're less vitriolic than most 'round these parts, moi included.
   88. Sean Gilman Posted: July 30, 2007 at 04:56 AM (#2461183)
I certainly agree he's very borderline, anyone who's been on the ballot for over 100 years can't help but be.

But I don't think the HOM makes mistakes, though it's elected lots of people nowhere close to my PHOM.

I'm probably just being oversensitive today, but these comments (and there are a bunch of them) have been bugging me for a while now.
   89. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: July 30, 2007 at 06:16 AM (#2461215)
Well, we’re now up to elections close enough that I can remember them being debated on Primer. Smith vs. Trammell is not a new debate – for whatever reason, it also got into Roy White vs. Jim Rice, and for really obscure reasons, I wound up coming up with a list of 40 Primates whose opinions I valued more highly than David Jones. (I’d say you had to be there, but even if you were, it didn’t make a lot of sense.)

Smith, Trammell, and Cool Papa Bell make my PHoM this year (though I reserve the right to change the last one tomorrow, since it will not affect my ballot)

1. Ozzie Smith (new) While I try to balance everything, when it comes down to it, I’ll usually go with the career argument. I also give Ozzie points for working to improve his offense over the course of his career – he had his highest OPS+ at 36! Makes my PHoM this year.

2. Alan Trammell (new) I certainly understand how someone could have him #1, but whatever the amount, he wasn’t playing as much each year as Ozzie. His HoF vote totals are an embarrassment, the only problem is there’s even bigger ones that get the attention. Makes my PHoM this year

3. Bus Clarkson (3) Parallels Elliot’s career, but with war credit he comes out ahead, and he presumably had more defensive value. The new MLE’s didn’t boost him that much, but it was enough to move him to the upper reaches of my ballot. Made my PHoM in 1997.

4. Dick Redding (6) Seems to have a pretty good peak, and also has somewhat of a career argument. I still tend to think he’s close enough to Mendez that they both should be in or out. Made my PHoM in 1973.

5. Bob Johnson (7) I'm impressed by his consistency, he was an above-average player every year for 13 seasons, plus he got started very late in the bigs, so I will give him at least 1 year of minor league credit. The more I look at him compared to the other corner OF candidates, the more impressed I am, and it appears the era considerations have been a little overblown. Made my PHoM in 1992.

6. Bill Monroe (5) NOT surprised to see I was his Best Friend. The new Cuban translations boost him a slight bit, as we have more evidence for his quality. A good player at an important defensive position, with a great reputation for his fielding. People like to promote the 1890s as underrepresented, but that doesn't mean the 00s and 10s are overrepresented. Made my PHoM in 1939.

7. George Van Haltren (4) A very good player for a long time, even if he was never truly great. I don't reject all peak arguments, but I'll take his consistency over Duffy's big years (although taking another look at that this year knocked him down a few spots). Made my PHoM in 1972.

8. Reggie Smith (9) For now, I think he’s the best of the 70’s OF glut. Very similar to Medwick/Johnson, but the lack of a peak holds him back. Win Shares really likes him. Not sure how I feel about those clutch numbers. WARP doesn’t have that great an opinion of his fielding, all things considered. Made my PHoM in 1995.

9. Gavvy Cravath (8) With the basic 07, 09-11 additions, this is where I have him. A better peak than Johnson, but less consistent. WARP isn't as fond of him as WS, but he compares well to Kiner & Keller. Made my PHoM in 1987.

10. Tommy Leach (10) Dropped from the top of may ballot because I had to admit that Robinson was a better 3B candidate, and I wasn’t all that crazy about his argument either. I may have been overrating 3Bmen in general. Excellent fielder at important positions, OK hitter. One of the most complete players on the ballot. Made my PHoM in 1940.

11. Phil Rizzuto (11) He does come out as comparable to Sewell in total value, but it’s very defense-heavy, and even if it’s unfair, I’m less certain about that. Might deserve Minor League credit for 1940 (I’m not counting it at the moment.) Made my PHoM in 1997.

12. Dave Stieb (12) He does have quite a peak, although the career argument isn’t so hot. He is fairly similar to Tiant, but I think just a little better. Made my PHoM in 2000

(12A Cool Papa Bell)

13. Norm Cash (14) A lot of good years, but I really think he's the Beckley of the 60s, with a shorter career (although that's not really much of a criticism). He really does look pretty similar to Hernandez, and for some reason has 6 Win Shares Gold Gloves to Keith's 1.

14. Bobby Bonds (22) A very strong prime candidate, but neither his peak nor career totals really stand out.

15. Alejandro Oms (16) A reasonable candidate, but doesn’t stand out for me in any particular manner.

16. Elston Howard (15) If you give him fair credit for being stuck in the Negro Leagues and behind Yogi, he looks like the best catcher candidate on the ballot to me.
17. Luis Tiant (17) Like I said, he is really close to Stieb. I think Stieb gets a little more credit because he was better at his best.
18. Andre Dawson (new) You have to make allowances for a lot of things, but I do think he’s a better career candidate than Staub or Perez. But for a corner OF, he falls just a bit short in my opinion.
(18A Max Carey, 18B Rube Foster)
19. Ron Cey (23) Better than I expected, extremely consistent. Clearly looks ahead of Bando and Nettles to me - better hitter than Nettles, better fielder than Bando, better peak than both of them. He's wasn't any worse than Evans, but didn't last as long. Major worry is overcrowding of 3B in this era.
20. Ben Taylor (20) Another solid candidate who might have been overlooked.
(21A Nellie Fox, 21B Sam Thompson)
21. Charley Jones (24) Even with the missed time credit, there's just not quite enough to make the ballot. Looking back at Kelly’s Keltner made me realize I had been underrating him slightly.
22. Dizzy Dean (21) Is his peak case really that much weaker than Keller and Kiner? I'm wondering. And with Stieb being a peak/prime guy, is he that much better than Dizzy?
23. Tony Perez (19) He does have a good peak, but his late-70s years aren't much above average. And for a mostly 1B guy, even his peak OPS+s aren’t impressive.
24. Vern Stephens (25) Close to Rizzuto, but with the wartime discount and the sudden dropoff after 1950, not quite there.
25. Bob Elliott (18) He’d been winning the comparison with Cey the past few years, but not this time. They’re really pretty similar, and when you discount for wartime play, he’s behind.
26. Rusty Staub (27) A career candidate with some peak value, but also picked up WS by just hanging around. Could rank higher. Definitely behind Perez.
(26A Richie Ashburn, 26B Ralph Kiner)
27. Orlando Cepeda (26) A little ways behind the other 1Bmen. They all have a stronger argument for one angle or another. He did get his career off to a great start, though.
28. Don Newcombe (28) Basically the only pitcher candidate left from the 50s, and he has an interesting argument.
(28A Hughie Jennings, 28B George Sisler, 28C Rollie Fingers)
29. Roger Bresnahan (29) I understand his situation, but he doesn't even have 1000 games caught. A significantly better hitter than Howard, but I think if you give Elston fair credit, his career value wins out.
30. Kirby Puckett (30) Yes, some very good years, but his peak doesn't match Murphy's. I can't have him too far ahead of Dale.
31. Bucky Walters
32. Dave Bancroft
33. Pete Browning (35) An outstanding hitter, but a truly awful fielder, and played most of his career in the weaker league. I wouldn't be upset if he got in, but I don't quite see it.
34. Sal Bando
35. Jack Clark
36. Dale Murphy
37. Ken Singleton
38. Tony Lazzeri
39. Lou Brock
40. Tommy Bridges

52. Hugh Duffy. Now, see if I hadn’t taken another look at his Win Shares peak (which WARP doesn’t see as that special), he’d be all the way down in the 70s with Mike Griffin. But I just don’t see him as a candidate at all at this point. His peak advantage simply isn’t as big as Van Haltren’s career advantage.
   90. Thane of Bagarth Posted: July 30, 2007 at 10:44 AM (#2461251)
2002 Ballot
My ranking system heavily weights 5 year peaks, but additional career value can add up, too. I rely primarily on the uberstats, with about a 60/40 split between WARP and WS. I’m rather liberal with war and minor league credit. I use a catcher bonus of up to 10% based on the proportion of a player’s career spent behind the plate.

I think all of the WARP #s I’m using were up to date as of the beginning of December. I have already run the numbers for all “serious” eligibles (i.e. >200 career Win Shares) through the 2006 election.

1) Ozzie Smith
I guess he wasn’t as bad offensively as I remember. He had so much defensive value for so long (career BP “Rate” at short is 111) that I can’t help but put him first.

2) Alan Trammell
Another great SS atop my ballot. By Win Shares, Trammell would be slightly ahead of Smith, but Ozzie’s edge in career value according to WARP leaves Alan at #2.

3) Tony Perez
Perez is not terribly dissimilar from Staub—they’re almost identical by Win Shares. His peak according to WARP is substantially better than Staub’s (46.6 to 40.5) and he’s got more career value to boot (109.5 to 102.7), so Tony gets the edge.

4) Andre Dawson
Hawk racked up a ton of career value, but so did Perez and Staub. A peak that’s a little better than Staub and not quite as good as Perez lands him here.

5) Rusty Staub
By Win Shares he looks like a solid HoMer: 358 career, 145 top-5 consecutive. By WARP he’s a bit more marginal: 40.5 top 5 WARP3 isn’t super, but 102.7 career is respectable.

6) Frank Tanana
His WARP totals are very good (111 WARP3 career, 47 top 5 seasons), but Win Shares has him as run of the mill. I lean a little more towards WARP in my rankings so Tanana is in the top half of the ballot this year.

7) Bucky Walters
A very good pitcher…I’m not convinced that he needs to be docked for the superb Reds defense more than the DTs already do.

8) Ben Taylor
The lack of data from his prime years makes all of this highly speculative, but I’m ranking him as if he was Keith Hernandez with a little less peak and more career (career totals of around 105 WARP3 and 320 Win Shares; with top 5s of 46 and 135, respectively).

9) Bob Johnson
100 WARP3, 287 WS for career plus Minor League credit makes him a legit HoM candidate.

10) Dick Redding
2nd best NeL pitcher of the deaball era, I’m hoping we’ll give him his due eventually.

11) Kirby Puckett
Would be greatly helped if he had 3-4 more years in the rabbit-ball era of the late ‘90s. He’s also hurt a little in that he didn’t get to add 2-3 filler years at the beginning of his career.

12) Bobby Bonds
Similar in career value to Indian Bob (93 WARP3, 302 WS). 149 WS in top five consecutive seasons is impressive, though not unprecedented.

13) Graig Nettles
Although his peak numbers are a little lower than Bonds & Singleton, career totals are a little better…Nettles ends up somewhere in the middle.

14) George Van Haltren
GVH seems to be an obvious HoMer if you just look at Win Shares (344 career, 133 top 5 consecutive—before season length adjustments); however, WARP (especially WARP3) is not nearly as favorable: 86.5 career, 36.4 top 5.

15) Ken Singleton
Similar overall career and peak value to Bonds. Both have 302 WS, just over 90 WARP3; top 5s of about 150 WS, 46(BB)/48(KS) WARP3

The Rest of the Top 50
16) Dale Murphy—Over half of his career value comes from an impressive 5-year peak. Razor thin margin separates him from Singleton.
17) Luis Tiant—By WARP alone (98.2 career, 45.3 top 5 WARP3), I’d have him higher than Walters, but Win Shares is not as generous (256 career, 108 top 5 consec.).
18) Bill Monroe
19) Jimmy Ryan
20) Gavy Cravath—A heavy dose of MiL credit gives him the career bulk, which, when added to his peak, makes him a ballot contender.
21) Dizzy Trout
22) Tommy John
23) Buddy Bell
24) Charley Jones—Always close to the ballot, if not on it. I give him credit for 2 blackball/blacklist/whatever years.
25) Sam Rice
26) Don Mattingly
27) Tommy Leach
28) Bus Clarkson
29) Rabbit Maranville
30) Norm Cash
31) Jim Kaat
32) Dave Parker
33) Reggie Smith
34) Jack Clark
35) Buzz Arlett
36) Burleigh Grimes
37) Jack Quinn
38) Bob Elliot
39) Jose Cruz
40) Harry Hooper
41) Dave Concepcion
42) Ron Cey
43) Vada Pinson
44) Phil Rizzuto
45) Alejandro Oms
46) Hugh Duffy—His uberstat numbers don’t convince me it’s a mistake to rank him here, though he isn’t terribly far behind some of the OFs at the bottom of my ballot.
47) Rick Reuschel
48) Orlando Cepeda
49) Cesar Cedeno
50) Dick Lundy

65) Dave Steib—I don’t see a huge difference between him and a lot of other backlog pitchers.


Returning Consensus Top 10 Not in My Top 100:
Roger Bresnahan—He’s neck and neck with Thurman Munson…which means not HoM-worthy in my estimation.
Pete Browning— He takes a real beating in the WARP1-3 conversions. I have voted for him in the past, but right now I’ve got him falling farther and farther behind the real ballot contenders.
   91. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: July 30, 2007 at 11:56 AM (#2461267)
36 ballots tallied so far. Still missing ballots from these procrastinators: sunnyday2 (it appears he's annoyed at us for something he set in motion - I hope he joins us again eventually), Daryn, yest, Al Peterson, DavidFoss, Brent, Ken Fischer, Esteban Rivera, Tiboreau, Max Parkinson, KJOK, rico varian, Got Melky, Tom D, Michael Bass, dan rosenheck, fra paolo and 'zop.

Since they didn't vote in the past five elections, Jeff M and Trevor P. have been removed from the list.

The election ends at 8 PM EDT sharp. Results will be posted at 10.
   92. fra paolo Posted: July 30, 2007 at 12:05 PM (#2461272)
[Posted from a motel in Joe Dimino's new hometown of Champaign, IL] I slightly prefer peak to career value. I start ranking players by +5 WARP3 seasons, then go on from there by studying traditional stats. I also value being the best in the league at one's position for an extended period (preferably four years consecutively).

1) Alan Trammell Trammell gets ahead of Ozzie on the basis of four +10 WARP3 seasons. There's no question that these two are the class of the new candidates.

2 Ozzie Smith Possibly the greatest defensive SS ever.

3 Bill Mazeroski Possibly the greatest defensive 2b ever. Maz's Win Shares credentials may look unimpressive, but where WARP is concerned he's a champion. He's certainly got a better case than inductee Nellie Fox, and not far behind inductee Bobby Doerr.

4 Tony Perez Maybe Dave Concepcion offers a little more career value than Perez, but Perez has a better prime.

5 Dave Concepcion Concepcion stands out at his position and has more career value than anyone else except the two shortstops above him.

6 Kirby Puckett Every one of Puckett's 12 seasons was +5 WARP3. I find him and Dawson to be very close, and for the preliminary I'm giving Puckett the first

7 Bob Johnson I like him for his 12 +5 WARP3 seasons.

8 Luis Tiant I wouldn't give an 'elect-me' slot to any of the pitchers remaining, but out of those who made my ballot, Tiant gets the highest placing.

9 Pie Traynor A very good 3b for a long time.

10 Thurman Munson Depending on where you bookend Freehan's prime, Munson is better or almost as good. His career value is almost equal. Why isn't he attacting more votes?

11 Alejandro Oms My leading right-field candidate at the moment.

12 Andre Dawson A poster presentation at SABR 37 reminded me his 1987 MVP was somewhat controversial, and he has that slight fall-off in the middle of his career, so I'm giving Puckett the higher slot.

13 Tommy Bridges Bridges hasn't got the same career value as Dave Stieb, but he's got more +5 WARP3 seasons and fractionally more peak.

14 Burleigh Grimes Grimes also has more +5 WARP seasons than Stieb.

15 Norm Cash He’s got the best prime of positional players not already on my ballot.

Top tens not on ballot.
Cannonball Dick Redding has too short a peak for me, and not enough of what I’d call a prime.
Browning, Duffy, Jones, Bresnahan all fall short on length of prime, although Jones mounts a strong case. However, having said that, a conversation I heard between Joe Dimino and Brock Hanke at SABR 37 makes me want to look at the career-length issue again - but it came too late for this ballot.

New Guys
Tim Wallach I was surprised to find he is a very good candidate, going head-to-head with Bando for number two on my 3b rankings which are all very close anyways. May yet get a ballot spot, as I'm also planning to look at 3b in more detail before the next ballot.
   93. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: July 30, 2007 at 12:55 PM (#2461282)
Congrats to Chris on ballot 100.

Does anyone keep, and can that person share, the list of how many ballots each voter has cast over the years?
   94. Daryn Posted: July 30, 2007 at 02:52 PM (#2461357)
I never procrastinate -- I was on vacation!

I value career over peak, but can be entranced by a great prime. I look at traditional statistics, ERA+, OPS+, Win Shares and Ink. Equally importantly, I read everything on this board and incorporate all that work into my analysis, whether it is RSI, MLEs, PenAdds, simple comparisons of candidates or anything else.

I am really lost after my top 13. I cannot make a distinction between the value of the players anymore at that level.

The three prominent newbies make my ballot. I see a lot of votes for the Hawk in the 16-20 range. I hope he moves up next time around. I think SABR-types hold his undeserved MVP against him.

1. Ozzie Smith – the defense means a lot to me. I have a pet peeve – it is people who say his nickname was the Wizard of Oz. It was the Wizard of Aahs.

2. Lou Brock – I think the post season value and the tremendous speed puts him ahead of the similar long-career peakless Beckley. OCF sums up his case in post 126 of the Brock thread. Number of unelected Hall of Fame or Hall of Merit eligible players with more hits than Brock: Zero. Number of people with more MLB hits than Brock: 21.

3. Mickey Welch – 300 wins, lots of grey ink. RSI data shows those wins are real. Compares fairly well to Keefe. I like his dominating record against HoMers. With Beckley elected, he is my last real Teddy Bear.

4. Burleigh Grimes – as a career voter, I have difficulty seeing the vast difference others see between Rixey and Faber (both now elected) and Grimes.

5. Tony Perez – this might be a bit high, but I am comfortable with it. 34th all-time in total bases, no black ink – the weight of his career totals push him above what otherwise looks like a definitional bubble candidate’s resume.

6. Andre Dawson – very comparable to Perez. I’m inclined to put him ahead of Perez because, as I remember it, his centrefield defense was very good, but I’ll be conservative the first time around.

7. Dick Redding – probably the 6th best blackball pitcher of all-time (behind, at least, Williams and Paige and likely behind the Fosters and Brown), and that is good enough for me.

8. Alan Trammell – clearly, I’m not a big fan. Only peer pressure (read: careful consideration of the posts here) has got him this high (he’d be 17th otherwise). As a Jay fan, I was never scared when he came to bat. All the candidates below Trammell have significant flaws. Trammell really doesn’t have any real flaws in his resume, which justifies his placement this high.

9. Addie Joss – I don’t like short careers much, but I cannot ignore the best WHIP of all-time, the second best all-time ERA, the 12th best ERA+ and the nice winning percentage. He is barely better than (this is an unordered list) Stieb, Kaat, Hunter, Harder, Warneke, Smith, Bridges, Gomez, Hoyt, Dean, Luque, Pennock, Trucks, Matthews, Quinn, McCormick, Cicotte, Willis, Walters, Bender, Mays, Cooper, Shocker, Mullane (highest WS of any non-candidate by far), Byrd and Mullin.

10. Pete Browning – Joe Jackson’s most similar player, and they are pretty close – I have him as about 4/5ths of Jackson, who was 2nd on my ballot when elected. Pete Browning benefits from a decision I made in 1986. I’m a career voter, but I have decided that I’d rather honour a great peak than the 210th best career candidate.

11. Tommy John – not too far from Grimes, a step above Kaat. No credit for the surgery, but medical pioneers (even the guinea pigs) get my respect.

12. Jim Rice – I like the 77-79 peak. I like the runs created in his ten+ year prime and I like his overall totals. I do adjust raw totals significantly, but I think people are holding Fenway too much against him. From 1975 to 1986, Rice led the American League in total games played, at-bats, runs scored, hits, homers, RBIs, slugging percentage, total bases, extra-base hits, go-ahead RBIs, multi-hit games, and outfield assists.

13. Dave Parker – I think he is very similar to Rice, but I like Rice’s peak better. Their career counting stats impress me.

14. Sam Rice -- 2987 hits speaks to me, but not even the best starch on the ballot.

15. Orlando Cepeda, 1b – He is a very difficult choice for me because he isn’t significantly better than Howard, Colavito and Cash, but the slight difference means about 25 spaces on this ballot.

16. Luis Tiant, p – I don’t have a problem with 11 pitchers from the 70s making our Hall. Talent isn’t evenly distributed and I have no problem with acknowledging value attached to favourable conditions. See Welch, Mickey, for the other side of the same coin.

17. Graig Nettles – definitely better than Traynor, about equal to Boyer. Obviously, the defence is a big help.

18. Pie Traynor, 3b -- I think he would have been a multiple time all-star.

19. Jim Kaat

20. Roger Bresnahan – Great OBP, arguably the best catcher in baseball for a six year period. Counting stats, like all catchers of this time and earlier, are really poor. I like him better than Schang because he compared better to his contemporaries, if you count him as a catcher.

Stieb is my all-time favourite player, but isn't very close to my ballot.
I like Duffy. He was on my ballot 85 years ago. He is in the 30s now.
Johnson is just below Duffy. I consider him to be Bernie Williams without the post-season resume.
Charley Jones is not in my consideration set. Even with credit, his career is too short.
   95. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: July 30, 2007 at 02:59 PM (#2461368)
I never procrastinate -- I was on vacation!


Yeah, yeah...tell it to the Marines. ;-)
   96. rico vanian Posted: July 30, 2007 at 03:15 PM (#2461390)
1) Alan Trammel – Great hitting at a fielding position trumps great fielding at a fielding position.
2) Chuck Klein – 4 hr titles including a triple crown. His age similarity scores from age 25-34 mirror Ruth, DiMaggio and Ted Williams. Even in a bandbox ballpark, that’s not too shabby.
3) Lou Brock - The H.O.M. doesn’t appear to value stolen bases (Aparicio, for example) as highly as I do. 3000 hits is a major qualifier for me as well.
4) Ozzie Smith – Obviously a great fielder. Hit when it counted (just ask the Dodgers).
5) Luis Aparicio – nine Gold Glove awards, led the American League in stolen bases nine seasons and was named to the All Star squad 10 times. When he retired in 1973, he held the career record for shortstops for games played, double plays and assists. I see alot of love for Ozzie, how about some for Looie?
6) Kirby Puckett- If players like Charlie Keller get in on short (but excellent) careers; than Puckett is a shoo-in. Great and clutch player who shouldn’t be penalized by a freak injury. He missed the years that would have pumped up his career totals, but his legacy was made in the years he played.
7) Burleigh Grimes – 5 20 wins seasons, 270 total wins, very strong on the black and gray ink tables.
8) Pie Trayner – .320 career average, hit .300 or better 10 times
9)Ernie Lombardi – 2 ba titles, 8 all star games, .300 career average as a catcher.
10) Dale Murphy – A heckuva peek, gets points off for a lousy batting average.
11)Sam Rice – Talk about late bloomers…Virtually no stats before he was 29 and still finished just shy of 3000 hits.
12) Phil Rizzuto – SS on the team with the greatest era ever. 3 prime years lost to WW2 would have put him over 2000 hits and ended the debate.
13) Andre Dawson – Power and speed (at least in his early years)
14) Jim Rice – Hit for power and average. Career flamed out, but I don’t see why Keller got more votes than him.
15)Don Mattingly – Short but awesome peak (see comments on Puckett).

no soup for...
16) Gavvy Cravath- The leading power hitter of the immediate pre-Ruth era.
17)Steve Garvey – Underrated due to fidelity / “feet of clay” overtones
18) Hugh Duffy – That .440 year is just plain sick.
19) Mickey Welch – 300 wins in a short career, but never the top pitcher in his era.
20) Dave Parker – Drugs are bad, mmkay?
21) George Foster- I think he is getting shortchanged. A terrific hitter for about 7 years.
22) Addie Joss- Awesome peak
23) Gil Hodges – Great fielder, very good hitter for arguably the NL team of the 50's.
24) Thurman Munson – A good peak, obviously not a long career, although by the time of his death, he was already pretty much finished. If Freehan is in, than Thrum deserves consideration.
25) Catfish Hunter- Peak and clutch
26) Pete Browning – League quality and shortness of career issues.
27) Tony Perez- I could have hit 20 homers and driven in 90 rbi’s a year with Rose, Morgan, Bench, etc surrounding me.
28) Tony Oliva- With good knees, he would’ve been a sure thing HOF’er
29) Jack Morris- Big game pitcher. Nuff said.
30) Tommy John &
31) Jim Kaat - Longevity certainly, Greatness no.
32) Dave Concepcion – I have him below Aparicio and Rizzuto on the SS list.
33) Bruce Sutter – Great peak, but not enough years
34) Ron Guidry – A late start and the Billy Martin/Art Fowler run em till they’re done school of arm management didn’t help. One of my all time favorites.
35) Dave Stieb – It would have been very interesting had he played for a better team to see what his career stats would have been.
36) Vida Blue – What might have been…
37) Bill Madlock – Just hit, baby.
38) Don Baylor &
39) Reggie Smith The Hall of very good beckons
40) Bob Johnson (see Baylor & Smith)
41) Bucky Walters- Nice peak, but not enough.
42) Dick Redding - Another player with anecdotal, but not statistical evidence.
43) Graig Nettles – I grew up a Yankee fan and I remember the big hitting, but not until the Dodger/Yankee World Series was his fielding ever really laud

Bresnahan and Jones didn’t play long enough or well enough to be close to my top 50.
   97. DanG Posted: July 30, 2007 at 03:39 PM (#2461423)
Pete Browning... It looks like he will be elected this year, though.

So it ain't so, Joe!
4. PETE BROWNING - Stubbornly holding on. Look at the 1890 PL season. Browning, at age 29, leads the league in adj OPS+ by 13 pts over 32-yr-old HOMer Connor, followed by a 22-yr-old Beckley and HOMers Ewing, Brouthers, Gore, O'Rourke at 6-7-8-9. Ewing is 30, Brouthers is 32, Gore is 33, O'Rourke is 39.
The fact that so many +30 players were dominating the league, especially at a time when 30 was a rather advanced age for a ball player, does not indicate a high quality league. And, looking at 1888-89 and 1891-92, clearly Browning's 1890 was a fluke year, meaning it should not be used as an indicator of the general quality of his play nor of the league that year.
Browning by all accounts is 'an old 29' due to his health and alcohol problems.
Usually we call that "injury prone", a major negative for a player. Yet in his chance to play in a HOMer-laden league, he dominates. Yet I am supposed to assume that as a younger player he wouldn't have been able to post big numbers in the NL rather than the AA?Big, but not "HoMer" big.
Seven OPS+s above 163. 10 seasons as a regular, a good number for the era.
Even in that era it's very low for a HoMer.
This lousy fielder played some 16 pct of his career in the infield.
Tried and found wanting.
Given the era, how much did he really hurt his team in the field? Not as much as some think; it was a different game then.
Well, fielding was MORE important than it would be in most subsequent eras, so they pulled him out of the infield and gave him less responsibility.
   98. yest Posted: July 30, 2007 at 03:59 PM (#2461445)
2002 ballot

Smith, Grimes, and Drysdale and make my PHOM this year


1. Don Mattingly should have got a ring in 94 (made my personal HoM in 2001)
2. Kirby Puckett was there ever athlete who lost his reputation like he did (made my personal HoM in 2001)
3. Pie Traynor most 3B putouts 7 times (made my personal HoM in 1942)
4. Chuck Klein 4 hr titles 1 triple crown (made my personal HoM in 1951)
5. Tony Oliva most hits 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1983)
6. Mickey Welch please see his thread (made my personal HoM all the way back in 1898)
7. Sam Rice imagine if he would have started earlier (made my personal HoM in 1940)
8. Pete Browning 13th in career batting avg. (made my personal HoM in 1906)
9. Ozzie Smith greatest shortstop ever (makes my personal HoM this year)
10. Hack Wilson 4 hr titles RBI season record (made my personal HoM in 1940)
11. Hugh Duffy had 100 runs or RBIs every full year he played (made my personal HoM in 1908)
12. Addie Joss 2nd in era (made my personal HoM in 1918)
13. George Kell very good hitter and fielder at important and under elected position (made my personal HoM in 1963)
14. Bill Madlock 4 batting tittles (made my personal HoM in 1994)
15. Al Oliver 1 batting title (made my personal HoM in 1991)
16. Jim Rice hit 300 7 times (made my personal HoM in 1995)
17. Harvey Kuenn led AL shortstops in putouts twice assists once (made my personal HoM in 1972)
18. Heinie Manush 330 batting avg. (made my personal HoM in 1957)
19. Hilton Smith see his thread (made my personal HoM in 1964)
20. Ray Schalk the best catcher ever (made my personal HoM in 1938)
21. George Van Haltren 31st in runs (made my personal HoM in 1925)
22. Jimmy Ryan 30th in runs (made my personal HoM in 1926)
23. Luis Aparicio being a better offensive player then Rabbit puts him here (made my personal HoM in 1979)
24. Jake Daubert 29th in triples (made my personal HoM in 1930)
25. Bobby Veach most doubles twice (made my personal HoM in 1931)
26. Bill Mazeroski 2nd greatest (fielding) 2nd baseman (McPhee‘s 1) ever (made my personal HoM in 1985)
27. Roy Thomas most times on base 6 times (made my personal HoM in 1985)
28. Dave Parker would be higher with out his extra credit (made my personal HoM in 1997)
29. Gavvy Cravath most active HRs 1918, 1919 and 1920 (made my personal HoM in 1928)
30. Lou Brock like the steals more then most (made my personal HoM in 1985)
31. Kiki Cuyler 2299 hits (made my personal HoM in 1967)
32. Lloyd Waner had the most OF putouts 4 times, finished 2nd once and finished 3rd twice (made my personal HoM in 1967)
33. Ginger Beaumont 1902 batting title (made my personal HoM in 1932)
34. John McGraw 3rd in on base percentage (made my personal HoM in 1930)
35. Steve Garvey 200 hits 6 times (made my personal HoM in 1994)
36. Jim Bottomley 2313 hits (made my personal HoM in 1968)
37. Levi Meyerle best rate season ever (made my personal HoM in 1975)
38. Eddie Yost most walks 6 times most times on base 3 times (made my personal HoM in 1987)
39. Rabbit Maranville best shortstop before Ozzie moves down do to reading accounts on how his drinking hurt his team more then the numbers show(made my personal HoM in 1939)
40. George J. Burns most walks 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1932)
41. Orlando Cepada 297 batting avg 379 HRs (made my personal HoM in 1987)
42. Stuffy McInnis led in fielding% 6 times (made my personal HoM in 1987)
43. Deacon Phillippe best walks/9 IP in the 20th centaury (made my personal HoM in 1988)
44. Babe Adams led in WHIP 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1992)
45. Jack Morris in short (because unfortunately I don‘t have time to post an extensive search on the subject) looking over retrosheet I found his ERA to be inflated somewhat by a few bad performances that overstate his ERA to win expectation leading many to believe his win record was inflated by his teammates more then I think is true though I found his teamates did prevent him from getting the loss what appears to be more then normal
for example in 1984 he went 19-11 with a 3.60 era though he only had 2 wins where he gave up more then 4 ER
there a basically few games in which rose his ERA to heights above his expected win level give him the loss but each of these games effects his era more then 1 game should.
on 6-2-1984 in 6.0 IP he gave up 5 runs 5 being ER raising his era from 1.88 to 2.20 getting the loss
on 6-12-1984 in 3.0 IP he gave up 6 runs 6 being ER raising his era from 2.11 to 2.51 getting the loss
on 6-29-1984 in 5.2 IP he gave up 5 runs 5 being ER raising his era from 2.39 to 2.63 getting the loss
on 7- 3-1984 in 4.1 IP he gave up 8 runs 8 being ER raising his era from 2.63 to 3.08 getting the loss
on 7- 18-1984 in 4.0 IP he gave up 7 runs 7 being ER raising his era from 2.99 to 3.34 getting the loss
on 8- 7-1984 in 1.1 IP he gave up 9 runs 8 being ER raising his era from 3.08 to 3.34 getting the loss
on 8-16-1984 in 3.2 IP he gave up 7 runs 7 being ER raising his era from 3.57 to 3.84with a no decision (give him the loss here but don’t take away the wins he did get from him)
(made my personal HoM in 2000)
46. Buddy Myer 1935 batting title (made my personal HoM in 1996)
47. Cecil Cooper most rbi twice (made my personal HoM in 1997)
48. George H. Burns most hits twice gets PCL credit (made my personal HoM in 1998)
49. Burleigh Grimes 20 wins 5 times makes my pHoM same year as Drysdale the similarities are remarkable they were both dodger pitchers, inning eaters, spitballers (though one was legal) , headhunters (makes my personal HoM this year)


explanation for players not on my ballot
Dick Redding barring new evidence not one will make my ballot (the HoF vote has absolutely no bearing on my vote )
Charley Jones no black list points
Allan Trammell played shortstop :’)
Tony Perez needs more of a peak to meet with his career
Bucky Walters would have been in my pHoM with out WWII adjustments as he is he’s still close to it
Roger Bresnahan played to much outfield
Bob Johnson with out WWII adjustments is borderline with them he’s quite a bit lower
Dave Stieb I have many 80’s pitchers above him Fernando, John, Viola ex.
   99. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: July 30, 2007 at 04:09 PM (#2461462)
Allan Trammell played shortstop :’)


What position did Ozzie play? He certainly was a lot better of a hitter than the Wizard was, while being above average with the leather.

I understand people here that have Smith above Trammell. It's close enough that they might be right, IMO. But I can't see how those two can be far apart on your ballot.
   100. yest Posted: July 30, 2007 at 04:19 PM (#2461487)
1. remember I like SB more then most so ofennsivlly Ozzie's higher then other ballots

2. I only give one position of hitter for offensve stats and then factor defence in doing such Trammel gets conpaired offensivly to everyone and dosn't make up enogh for it with his glove
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