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Hall of Merit
— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best

Sunday, August 12, 2007

2003 Ballot

Prominent new candidates: Eddie Murray, Ryne Sandberg, Lee Smith, Ferrnando Valenzuela and Brett Butler.

Top-ten returnees: Pete Browning, Charley Jones, Roger Bresnahan, Bob Johnson, Andre Dawson, Cannonball Dick Redding and Tony Perez.

Please remember that all posts need to have comments or else they wont be counted.

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 12, 2007 at 11:23 PM | 188 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   101. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 18, 2007 at 01:50 AM (#2490111)
no. I don't know HOW that happened.

Blame not-Grandma.


Excuse me? ;-)
   102. EricC Posted: August 18, 2007 at 11:45 AM (#2490436)
2003 ballot.

1. Eddie Murray Most similar players: Al Kaline, Tim Raines, Paul Molitor, Jim O'Rourke, Rafael Palmeiro. Spectacular, consistent 1B all-star/MVP candidate peak 1978-1985. Except for a flukish 1990, played at a much lower level afterwards, not impressive for a 1B/DH, but durable enough to achieve the big conventional milestones.

2. Wally Schang Correcting for the 154-game schedule and the WWI-shortened seasons, has as much career value as Freehan in as many games, at least by Win Shares. Schang's lesser season-by-season totals is because in-season catcher usage was lower during his time than afterwards. The Bresnahan argument applies to Schang, too. Career leader in WS among major league catchers when he retired. A case where WARP is not as flattering as WS, perhaps accounting for Schang's lack of support.

3. Ryne Sandberg Most similar players: Joe Cronin, Jeff Kent, (Bill Freehan), Bobby Doerr, Pee-Wee Reese, Luke Appling. All-star level 2B most years 1984-1992 while very durable. Like many 2B in history, declined quickly after his early 30s preventing him from rising further on the all-time rankings.

4. Tommy John Career pitching candidate in the mold of Faber or E. Wynn. Kaat is also similar. I can see how some voters would not put Tommy John within a mile of their ballots; on the other hand, John's decent showing in the most recent mock BBWAA election shows that some level of support exists.

5. Brian Downing This is a vote that will raise eyebrows, I'm sure. I have double-checked the numbers, and did not find any errors or compelling reasons to change my methodology, although the subjective strangeness of the outcome makes me question most (1) whether the career value portion of DH-era players ratings should be docked because careers tended to be longer (2) whether being among the best DH in a season is worth as many peak points as I'm giving. He ends up so high from a combination of every quirk in my system breaking in his favor: catcher "bonus" for the catcher years, treatment of DH as a position in itself, population-based timelining, and consideration of league strength/affect of DH in a league.

6. Jack Clark Most similar players: R. Smith, Burkett, Heilmann, Cepeda, Singleton A "tweener" career that was good enough for long enough to land on my ballot.

7. Rusty Staub Looks like career >> peak to me. Will not help my consensus score, as similar players are the very very good types who don't make the HoM (or the HoF, unless they attain magic numbers like 3000 hits). I should call the bats that crowd the middle to bottom of my ballot "quadruple-A HoM candidates". Why did Dw. Evans get elected to the HoM, and not Staub?

8. Norm Cash Among better 1B most seasons 1960-1971, and occasional all-star level. More consistent than Cepeda, but less playing time per season.

9. Orlando Cepeda Among better 1B most of years during 1959-1967 and occasionally all-star level; career totals padded 1968-1974. Cepeda, Cash, and F. Howard are a set of near-exact contemporary "bat" candidates who played in the 1960s, a tricky era in which to judge the potential bottom-half-of-the-HoM "bats".

10. Lance Parrish Had two or three excellent seasons, but his career was greater than his peak. An offensive plus who caught many games; 5th all-time in HR as a C; played in strong leagues. These credentials help place him on my catcher-heavy ballot.

11. Elston Howard Multiple years of all star play at catcher; 1961-1964 "workload" also noteworthy. A peak that few catchers have attained, but very little outside the peak.

12. Reggie Smith Among better RF most years during the 1970s; respectable career totals; played CF in addition to RF. One stat that I've tabulated for fun is career Win Shares times career WS per plate appearance. It's not a perfect stat, but does correlate well with HoM selections. In this measure, Reggie Smith is the highest unelected player. That doesn't prove that he's a HoMer, but does suggest searching for reasons for his lack of support: (1) he's a 'tweener' between peak and career; (2) he missed a lot of playing time so that while his rate stats were always well above average, they don't show always lead to high season-by-season totals for those who look at things that way (3) he split defense among several positions; some may be rating him as a RF and neglecting his CF play.

13. Mickey Vernon Did have some all-star type seasons at 1B, but basically a "career" candidate all the way. Credit for two years missed to WWII, and belief that pre-expansion 1950s baseball had some of the toughest competiton of all time, based on teams/population. Among top contenders for "Hall of Fame chance hurt by WWII", as listed in Bill James' NBJHBA.

14. Ken Singleton Multiple all star-type seasons 1975-1979; MVP level 1977 season. Very durable in 1972-1983 prime; not much outside this. List of similar players suggests that he will not make it to the HoM easily, if at all.

15. Gene Tenace Consistent, high secondary average, run producing catcher. Would appear to be clearly below the consensus in/out line for catchers, but I rate catchers higher than most.

What an awful group of backloggers. Wish we didn't have to elect any of them...

Puckett 16th, Bresnahan 18th (but Schang was better. The 1900s NL was weak and the 1910s AL was strong). Dawson 23rd.

I have Bill Byrd a touch above Redding, and Sol White as the unelected NeL candidate that I rate the highest.

Bob Johnson: on the basis of his major league record (WWII seasons must be appropriately discounted), definitely not a HoMer, therefore, supporters must be giving him extra credit. Sam Rice is a more deserving late starter.

Pete Browning: whatever the HoM decides, I believe that, ultimately, he will be viewed as a HoVG player at the level of Mike Tiernan/Hack Wilson.

Charley Jones was better than Browning, but was also a HoVGer. Beware those AA years.

Tony Perez has some similarities to Staub. I prefer Staub, who hit better over more PA.
   103. sunnyday2 Posted: August 18, 2007 at 12:27 PM (#2490443)
Well, EricC, your whole ballot is an eyebrow raiser! After the big two, not a single player among the consensus top 10 and only one player who is on my ballot (E. Howard; I used to support Reggie2 and Cepeda). The consensus top 10 + my ballot gives you about 20 players to choose from and only one of them is on your ballot.
   104. Brent Posted: August 18, 2007 at 03:16 PM (#2490500)
2003 Ballot:

1. Ryne Sandberg – Top half of the HoM. Sandberg and Murray came out very close in my system—the edge goes to Ryno because of his .385/.457/.641 line in post-season play. (PHoM 2003)

2. Eddie Murray – Top half of the HoM. (2003)

3. Kirby Puckett – As a voter who values peak/prime, defense, and in-season durability, I’ve decided that Puckett is the player who belongs at the top of the backlog. 10 seasons with OPS+>117 and PA>550 (adjusting to 162-game schedule). One of the most valuable players of his era. (2002)

4. Ken Singleton – I hope some voters give him another look based on Chris Cobb’s analysis. Some others hit a little better, but either had trouble staying in the lineup or gave back with the glove what they created with the bat. 8 seasons with OPS+>130 and PA>600 (adjusting to 162-game schedule). (1991)

5. Phil Rizzuto – Excellent defense; above average hitter at his position; key contributor to many pennants. (1967)

6. Alejandro Oms – From 1921-29, his MLE OPS+ was 138; a good defensive center fielder. (1967)

7. Hugh Duffy – 7 seasons with OPS+>120 while playing 97% of his team’s games, contributing to five pennants, and ranking as one of the top defensive outfielders in baseball. (1931)

8. Sal Bando – 9 seasons with at least 107 OPS+ and 600 PA. (1987)

9. Carlos Morán – Please check out the analysis on the Carlos Morán thread. (1998)

10. Bobby Bonds – 10 seasons with OPS+>115, PA>600, SB>25, and R>90. (1987)

11. Bill Monroe – See analysis on Bill Monroe thread.

12. Bucky Walters – Over 7 seasons (1936, 39-42, 44-45) he averaged 18-13, 2.0 wins above team, 270 IP, 123 DERA+, 72 OPS+. MVP for 1939. (1958)

13. Elston Howard – An outstanding peak from 1961-64 and a bit of extra credit for delays in integration. (1977)

14. Tony Pérez – He had a lot of empty seasons on either side, but from 1967-78 he was right up there. (1994)

15. Dizzy Dean – Over 6 seasons (1932-37) he averaged 22-13, 3.6 wins above team, 288 IP, 129 DERA+, 182 SO, 67 BB. (1958)

Near misses:

16–20. Bresnahan (1997), Welch (1966), Pesky, Redding (1976), Nettles
21–25. Cravath (1976), Leach (1932), Long, Grimes (1940), Mattingly
26-30. Lundy, Van Haltren (1997), Castillo, Parker, Newcombe

Other consensus top 10:

Pete Browning – During his 10-year prime, he was in the lineup for only 83% of his team’s games. When Browning wasn’t available, his at bats went to players the caliber of Lou Sylvester, Farmer Weaver, and John Strick. I can see forgiving some in-season durability issues when a player has the career bulk to offset it, but in Browning’s case those 10 years are all he’s got.

Charley Jones – Better than Browning, but my line for 19th century outfielders starts with Duffy and Van Haltren.

Roger Bresnahan - # 16

Bob Johnson – There are several better outfield candidates available.

Andre Dawson – I’m not a career voter.

Dick Redding - # 19.

Other new arrivals:

Lee Smith – # 41. I’ve ranked him as part of a cluster of relief pitchers with Sutter and Marshall, just behind Quisenberry. They are all very different candidates, but none of them jumps out of the cluster to near-ballot level.

Brett Butler – A player I'd love to have had on my team, but he doesn’t make my top 100.
   105. Paul Wendt Posted: August 18, 2007 at 04:15 PM (#2490533)
EricC
5. Brian Downing This is a vote that will raise eyebrows, I'm sure.

There is the catcher bonus you have noted, and your ballot includes Schang, Parrish, E. Howard, and Tenace. (Where is Dale Murphy?)

So only Mickey Vernon raises two eyebrows.

13. Mickey Vernon Did have some all-star type seasons at 1B, but basically a "career" candidate all the way. Credit for two years missed to WWII, and belief that pre-expansion 1950s baseball had some of the toughest competiton of all time, based on teams/population. Among top contenders for "Hall of Fame chance hurt by WWII", as listed in Bill James' NBJHBA.

pages 209-212
James ranks Vernon second behind Cecil Travis. He relies heavily on Win Shares here; Vernon would have at least 331 with two full seasons 1944-45.
   106. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: August 18, 2007 at 05:26 PM (#2490580)
Just to address OCF's concern about Charley Jones on my ballot. I stupidly didn't do the Jones calculations before my original ballot. Once I realized the Steib mistake, I did them since I had to post a revised ballot anyway. Since we do have the right to post a revised ballot at any time, I don't think this is problematic, it's just a revised ballot, not strategery. Particularly since I haven't actively supported Jones for a couple-few decades (IIRC). I did used to be a big supporter, however.

Anyway, sorry if the revised ballot seemed awkward to anyone, it wasn't intended that way, and it just comes from my own foolish rushing through my ballot.
   107. Howie Menckel Posted: August 18, 2007 at 05:51 PM (#2490598)
This from the original Dr. Chaleeko ballot pretty much had explained it for me already:

-Charley Jones: Baseball’s most weirdest career. An uptick seems in the offing to me if the 1874 stuff is true, and there’s more info from Paul Wendt. He’s very close already.
   108. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 18, 2007 at 06:21 PM (#2490614)
Anyway, sorry if the revised ballot seemed awkward to anyone, it wasn't intended that way, and it just comes from my own foolish rushing through my ballot.


Not buying it, Eric. I'm assuming that the 157 year old Jones (when is that dude going to die?) paid you off. :-D
   109. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 18, 2007 at 06:24 PM (#2490618)
-Charley Jones: Baseball’s most weirdest career. An uptick seems in the offing to me if the 1874 stuff is true, and there’s more info from Paul Wendt. He’s very close already.


If Jones is still on the ballot next election, I'll have to take a look at him again myself, though he's at #6 on my ballot for this election as it is.
   110. DanG Posted: August 19, 2007 at 04:32 AM (#2491257)
I'm expecting that you will trumpet that if and when Dawson and/or Perez makes it in, correct?

While it's certainly no less true in those cases, I'll leave the trumpeting to their detractors.
   111. Mark Donelson Posted: August 19, 2007 at 05:22 AM (#2491270)
While it's certainly no less true in those cases, I'll leave the trumpeting to their detractors.

See, it's comments like this that make me think your objections of late have lot less to do with "something being wrong with the system" and more to do with the fact that you just don't like Browning.
   112. AJMcCringleberry Posted: August 19, 2007 at 05:22 AM (#2491271)
PHOM - Murray, Sandberg, Puckett

1. Eddie Murray
2. Ryne Sandberg

Both top 10 at their positions, easy 1-2.

3. Andre Dawson - 119 OPS+, 314 steals, over 10000 PAs, excellent defender in center. 350 Win Shares, 110 WARP3, his peak in centerfield was excellent. Basically I see him as Perez or Staub, but with more defensive and baserunning value.

4. Tony Perez - Long career (23rd in games, 34th in total bases, 62nd in runs created) and a nice peak split between third and first.

5. Bucky Walters - Great peak and good career value, 3000+ IP 115 ERA+.

6. Rusty Staub - Very long career (11th all time in games, 30th all time in ABs) with a decent peak. 59th in career total bases, 72nd in career XBH, 36th in career times on base.

7. Dale Murphy - Great hitting centerfielder. Excellent peak from '82-'87.

8. Dizzy Trout - Nice peak. '44 was fantastic, he was robbed of MVP by teammate Newhouser.

9. Jimmy Ryan - Good hitting center fielder, long career

10. Bob Johnson - Outstanding hitter, never below a 125 OPS+ in his major league career.

11. Gavvy Cravath - Superb hitter, not much of a defender. Gets a couple of minor league seasons added to his major league totals. 4th on the all time home run list when he retired.

12. Kirby Puckett - Good hitting, good fielding centerfielder. Not a long career, but a very good peak.

13. Graig Nettles - Excellent defender, good hitter over a long career. Brooks Robinson-lite.

14. Frank Tanana - Pitched a long time and was average or better for most of it. Similar to Tommy John, but had better peak.

15. Buddy Bell - Very similar to Nettles. Both decent hitters and great defenders with long careers.

16. Ken Singleton
17. Bobby Bonds
18. Ceasar Cedeno
19. Dave Parker
20. Brett Butler
21. Vada Pinson
22. Lee Smith - Seems like a good spot for him for now
23. Tommy John
24. Norm Cash
25. Lance Parrish
26. Elston Howard
27. Hugh Duffy
28. Tommy Leach
29. Bus Clarkson
30. Bob Elliott
31. Ron Cey
32. Marvin Williams
33. Dave Concepcion
34. George Van Haltren
35. Harry Hooper
36. Luis Tiant
37. Alejandro Oms
38. Buzz Arlett
39. Don Mattingly
40. Orlando Cepeda
41. Gil Hodges
42. Burleigh Grimes
43. Reggie Smith
44. Jack Clark
45. Jose Cruz
46. Willie Davis
47. Fielder Jones
48. Dick Redding
49. Rick Reuschel
50. Pie Traynor

54. Browning
62. Bresnahan

Charley Jones - Not enough career.
   113. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 19, 2007 at 11:57 AM (#2491327)
While it's certainly no less true in those cases, I'll leave the trumpeting to their detractors.

See, it's comments like this that make me think your objections of late have lot less to do with "something being wrong with the system" and more to do with the fact that you just don't like Browning.


It's obvious that it's not the system that bothers Dan, because he would be equally bothered by all of the low-end inductees that we have enshrined, regardless if he personally supported them or not. His problem is with peak-prime voters, which is fine, BTW. Of course, peak-prime voters also have "problems" with career voters, but I believe the vast majority of us understand "greatness" is subjective.

I don't support Dawson or Perez for the HoM, but I respect those who do because the career model is a legitimate way to view merit. But it's just not the only one. Obviously, if he were to retire today, Albert Pujols would receive many more votes from some of the voters here than Perez or Dawson because he we just flat-out better than those two at his best. That he doesn't have the same career value need not be the deciding factor to determine greatness.
   114. Andrew M Posted: August 19, 2007 at 11:15 PM (#2491854)
2003 Ballot

1. Eddie Murray. 3200 hits and 500 HRs gets you to the top of most ballots.

2. Ryne Sandberg. I lived in Chicago in the summer of 1984 and felt that he--like Harry Caray, Wrigley Field, and deep dish pizza--was very overrated, but I was wrong about Ryno and should have paid more attention in 1989-1992. His best seasons seem clearly better than Murray’s.

3. Larry Doyle.
“Doyle is not, as some assert, a disappointing fielder. It is true that he makes many errors on second base, but most of these errors are booted balls on very easy flies, and generally count little in the final records of the game. On the hard trys which really require genuine ability to field in good shape at critical moments in the game, Doyle is as steady as any of them. Fielding records generally tell very little of a player's real ability, and they are exceptionally misleading in the case of Larry Doyle.”
Frank Kennedy, “The Captain of the Giants.” Baseball Magazine, November 1912.

4. Bob Johnson. I have a hard time ranking the dozen or so OFs clustered in the 300 WS/100 WARP range. Johnson, though, seems slightly more meritorious than the rest: Career OPS+ 138, 10 times in AL top 10. EQA .308 compares favorably to other OF candidates. Also had a good glove.

5. Tommy Bridges. Despite finishing in the AL top 10 in innings five times, he was not much of a workhorse. When he did pitch, though, he was very good. He finished his career with just fewer than 3,000 IP and his top ERA+ season is 147. In his favor, he’s probably missing 360 or so innings from 1944 and 45, and he had six seasons in which his ERA+ was between 140 and 147 (and ten seasons in which he was in the top 10 in the AL.)

6. Dave Bancroft. Great glove, above average hitter, walked a lot. Had some durability issues, but ended up with over 110 WARP(1) and had a couple of 10+ WARP seasons, including one (1921) where one could reasonably argue that he was more valuable than any position player in the NL not named Rogers Hornsby.

7. Luis Tiant. An odd career. Had the misfortune to have his best season the same year as McLain won 31 games. I’d argue Tiant was the better pitcher that year--though it’s close when you account for McLain’s 336 innings and organ playing. Was then injured for a few years before coming back and having several excellent seasons for the Red Sox in the mid 70s.

8. Tommie Leach. Played two important defensive positions well and generated a decent amount of offensive value while doing it.

9. Phil Rizzuto. Great glove, probably not as good a hitter as Bancroft. Missing essentially 4 seasons at age 25-28. RIP Scooter.

10. Dale Murphy. Posted 4 30+ WS seasons (and 5 10+ WARP) seasons between 1980-1987. Rarely missed a game.

11. George J. Burns. Another guy who rarely missed a game. He also got on base a lot, could field and run, had 3 MVP caliber seasons (1914, 1917, 1919) and averaged close to 27 Win Shares a season for a decade. It isn’t a stretch to think of him as having been best OF in the NL from 1913-1920, which is impressive in any era and league.

12. Bucky Walters. Best pitcher in the NL 1939, 1940, perhaps 1941, 1944.

13. Bob Elliott. Best 3B in the NL from 1943-50. Consistently ranked in the top 10 in the NL in WS and OPS+ over that period. Above average glove.

14. Tony Perez. Separates himself from the 1B pack by having a pretty good glove at 3B for 5 full seasons. Hung around long enough to accumulate almost 11,000 PAs, but his rate numbers would look better had he retired at age 35.

15. Urban Shocker. Somewhere in the mix with Bridges, Walters, Stieb, Pierce, et al.

Next 12
Vern Stephens
Addie Joss
Ken Singleton
Roger Bresnahan
Tommy John
Dick Redding
Alejandro Oms
Dave Concepcion
Jimmy Ryan or GVH or Hugh Duffy
Charley Jones
Andre Dawson

Required disclosures:
Dick Redding. I’ve had him on and off the ballot over the years. I think he’s a solid candidate.
Browning and Jones. Too many questions, too many other candidates—though I like Jones a lot more.
Roger Bresnahan. I’d like him better had he played more games at catcher or if there was more evidence that he was a good catcher.
Andre Dawson. Under consideration, but comes up short for me.
   115. OCF Posted: August 20, 2007 at 01:24 AM (#2491912)
Andrew: I'm tied with you for being best friend of Doyle, but I'm afraid that's not all that persuasive a quote. It sounds a little too much like an excuse.
   116. Arrieta, Gentile Arrieta Posted: August 20, 2007 at 01:36 AM (#2491916)
2003 ballot:

1. Eddie Murray, 1b: Great player for many years. So consistent it only looks to some like he didn’t have peak.

2. Ryne Sandberg, 2b: Also great, a little more “peaky” than Eddie, but Eddie has the career edge.

3. Roger Bresnahan, c: Great player whose versatility illustrates his quality. (eligible 1921, PHOM 1929)

4. Andre Dawson, cf/rf: Looks like the major knock on this 5-tool player is that he lacks the 6th tool that’s sort of become a sabermetric touchstone -- drawing walks. All the backlog outfielders have one or more warts. With all else he offers, this is one I can live with. If I had him on my team, I wouldn’t trade him for any of the other eligible outfielders.

5. Carl Mays, sp: Good peak candidate, pretty good hitter. (eligible 1935, PHOM 1986)

6. Bobby Bonds, rf: 5-tool outfielder. Had the speed and skill to play center, at least early on, but the Giants had some other guy there already. (eligible 1987, PHOM 1996)

7. Orlando Cepeda, 1b: Has the peak/prime edge over Perez and Cash, MVP (whether deserved or not). (eligible 1980, PHOM 1996)

8. Lou Brock, lf: Great player in a narrow sense. OPS+ underrates him. Post-season play elevates him. (eligible 1985, PHOM !997)

9. Lance Parrish, c: I’m a little surprised he comes out so well, but here he is. 9-time first- or second-team all-star, 324 HR, A-rated defender.

10. Lee Smith, rp: Standout reliever for many years. His best seasons are spread out in his career. (He was pretty spread out himself.) Career vote.

11. Bruce Sutter, rp: Terrific ERA+ and incredible WS rate. Established the mold for the modern closer, but wasn’t confined to the 1-inning regimen. Career’s a bit short. (eligible 1994, PHOM 1997)

12. Kirby Puckett, cf: Only 12 seasons, but really nice ones. (eligible 2001)

13. Burleigh Grimes, sp: 270 wins, .560 W%, Retro-Cy, 5 STATS AS, 9 all-star quality seasons. Too many bad seasons have ruined his chances. (eligible 1940, PHOM 1942)

14. Phil Rizzuto, ss: I’d like a little more peak, but with credit for the missing years, he’s got the career value. Great defense, infield anchor for a bunch of pennant winners. R.I.P., Scooter. (eligible 1962)

15. Lefty Gomez, sp: Low innings total, but a terrific peak, more career than Dean, good black & gray ink, HOFS, HOFM, W-L, ERA. Pitched for a lot of good teams. He had something to do with that. (eligible 1948)



Required comments:
Pete Browning, cf: In my PHOM (’27), and I now think that was a mistake (Beckley wasn’t). Monster hitter, monstrous on defense. That he was dominant despite in-season durability problems says quite a bit about the league
Charley Jones: Among just the 19th-century leftovers, I have him behind Duffy, Welch, Browning, and maybe even Dunlap. I don’t think he’ll be making my ballot anytime soon.
Bob Johnson, lf: The career isn’t overly long, the peak isn’t outstanding, but he was one of the top outfielders in his league almost every year. He’s fallen back, there’s nothing exciting there. (eligible 1951)
Tony Perez, 1b/3b: Less peak than Cepeda or Cash, more than you-know-who. Better as a 3b than where he played most of his career. (eligible 1992)
Dick Redding, sp: Long career flame-thrower, top 5(?) 10(?) Negro League pitcher. PHOM 1966 but I’ve cooled off since.
   117. Patrick W Posted: August 20, 2007 at 02:14 AM (#2491935)
Brett Butler starts off just below the ballot threshold.

1. Eddie Murray (n/a), Balt. (A), 1B (’77-’97) (2003) – Just below the top 25% line. Easy #1.
2. Frank Tanana (2), Cal. – Detr. (A) SP (’73-’93) (2000) – Sandy Koufax peak (49.7 bonus WARP for Sandy’s peak vs. 46.9 for Frank), plus played for 10 additional years of average / below avg. Here is either the player that breaks my system or a vastly underrated pitcher by the rest of you. Only player in my top 100 who is not HOM (or going to be in ’03).
3. Ryne Sandberg (n/a), Chic. (N) 2B (’82-’97) (2003) – Just below the top 50% line. Easy first ballot selection.
4. Tony Perez (4), Cinc. (N), 1B / 3B (’65-’86) (1994) – Completely different BA/OB/SG breakdown, but the sum of his offensive and defensive value to a team makes him look like a twin of Willie Keeler to me.
5. Luis Tiant (5), Bost. – Clev. (A) SP (’64-’80) (1988) – Right there with Drysdale, Ford and Marichal. Not a slam dunk, but the ballot’s not strong enough to hold him down.
6. Lee Smith (n/a), Chic. – St.L. (N) RP (’81-’97) (2003) – Goose had enough peak to start Lee as the 3rd best reliever.
7. Andre Dawson (6), Mont. – Chic. (N), CF / RF (’76-’96) (2002) – He ranks as substantially better on both offense and defense than the Rice-Parker crowd that he is usually lumped together with on the HOF ballots. Even if his ’87 MVP belongs to the No. 1 guy on this ballot, they both are worthy of the HOM.
8. Tommy John (7), Chic.– N.Y. (A) SP (’63-’89) (1997) – If you can maintain average for a quarter century, that’s just a different definition of greatness.
9. Jim Kaat (8), Minn. (A) SP (’61-’83) (1991) – Kaat would probably be in the Hall today if his ’62-’66-’74-’75 had instead occurred consecutively. His best seasons don’t seem to coincide with Minnesota’s best as a team in the ‘60s either. Value is value in my system, and this is where he deserves to rank.
10. Rusty Staub (9), Hou. – N.Y. (N), RF (’63-’81) (1996) – In my system, I have to take 9400 AB’s of 0.295 EQA over 6400 AB’s at 0.301. Wynn has the bigger peak, but Staub has 5 more seasons to his career.
11. Rick Reuschel (10), Chic. – S.F. (N) SP (’72-’90) (1996) – On the other hand, if Reuschel is going in first ballot, then it probably is a weak ballot. Nearly equals the value of Kaat in 700 fewer innings.
12. Jack Morris (11), Detr. (A) SP (’78-’94) (2001) – I like my system of discounting the pitchers for their “effort” at the bat, but Morris points out how I need to somehow discount the AL pitchers in the DH era. Morris is nearly equal to Reuschel in my system because of Rick’s lack of prowess at the plate. By eyeball, Jack might drop 2-3 spots because of this issue; he’s still ballot-worthy until I resolve the discrepancy.
13. Graig Nettles (12), N.Y. (A) 3B (’69-’88) (1997) – How can the Hall not find enough 3B to honor?
14. Charlie Hough (13), L.A. (N) – Tex. (A) SP (’70-’94) – Charlie, Dutch. Dutch, Charlie.
15. Dutch Leonard (14), Wash. (A) SP (’34-’53) (1972) – Amazing how valuable he was before and after the war, the lost time to injury in ’42 and the apparent effects of recovery in ’43-’44 keep him from the 15-18 votes that all his equals seem to be getting. Penalize one guy for playing too good during the war, penalize another for not playing good enough...

Pete Browning – Much closer to the ballot than anyone else listed below, but even he’s only approx. low 20s-high 30s.
Roger Bresnahan – He may not be in my top ten catchers available.
Charley Jones – He only has eight seasons that help his cause. Blackballed or not, he would need two Ruthian seasons in those missing years to make for an on/off ballot consideration. With realistic extra credit, he is just below 400 on the rankings.
Bob Johnson (1985) – It’s rather sad when I have to explain why players in the P-Hall aren’t on the ballot. Would you elect some of the pitchers above already?
Dick Redding – The bar for NeL pitchers has been set higher than this, IMO. The jump from Ray Brown to Bill Foster, Mendez and Redding will keep them all out of my Hall.

Two players were in last year’s top ten, AND in my top 15 this year!
   118. SWW Posted: August 20, 2007 at 02:16 AM (#2491936)
Is this the year that we get to vote on Bob Uecker for the Ford Frick Award of Merit?

<u>2003 Ballot</u>
1) Eddie Clarence Murray – “The Wizard of Oz”
Tremendous hitter. Remember when he hit his 500th homer, and it seemed like such an extraordinary achievement, and people wondered if his unpleasant demeanor would keep him out of Cooperstown? I miss when things were that simple. 44th on Ken Shouler Top 100. 61st on Bill James Top 100. 63rd on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 77th on Sporting News Top 100. 82nd on SABR Top 100.
2) Ryne Dee Sandberg – “Ryno”
Very solid, dependable second baseman. I was at his last home game at Wrigley; weird day. 58th on Bill James Top 100. 98th on SABR Top 100. 100th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. New York Times Top 100.
3) Burleigh Arland Grimes – “Ol’ Stubblebeard”
My white whale. A successful pitcher with both a dead ball and a live one. Frequently one of the best pitchers in the league, and often the best pitcher on his team. Many comparisons to Early Wynn, whom we did elect, and most similar to Red Faber, whom we also elected. I heartily encourage people to review his case. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
4) Atanasio Perez Rigal – “Tony”
The closer Tony gets to the top of my ballot, the more skeptical I become of his position there. I’m a career guy, and his career numbers are typical of a guy I would stump for, but it feels awfully flat. For the moment, I’m going to take stats over gut feelings, since that’s the point of this project. But I’m not entirely comfortable with this placement, which tells me I’m missing something, so it could change. 74th on Ken Shouler Top 100.
5) Kirby Puckett
I know he’s considered overrated, but I’m still a little surprised more aren’t eager to join his bandwagon. Writers tend to overstate his career, overusing words like “stocky” and “fireplug”. But the man put up the numbers, with 6 Top 10 AL Win Shares seasons, and probably could have accumulated more (although I haven’t factored that in here). Also, if you’re like me and you ever ordered a McDonald’s Puck Pack, you’re still trying to burn that fat off. Sheesh. 86th on Sporting News Top 100. 95th on SABR Top 100. 98th on Bill James Top 100.
6) Dale Bryan Murphy
A pleasant surprise. Similar in some ways to Hugh Duffy, in the peak-heavy nature of his career. A lot more of a prime, though, with 6 appearances in the NL Top 10 in Win Shares. New York Times Top 100.
7) Orlando Manuel Cepeda Pennes – “Baby Bull”
Finally split up Cepeda and Perez. The biggest factor right now in my evaluation of Cepeda is the arrival on the ballot of Don Mattingly. They’re closer in merit than I realized, which is dragging them toward each other.
8) Carl William Mays
I have long considered Mays to be underrated, with better seasons and more milestones than more beloved candidates, like Luis Tiant and Billy Pierce. A much more definitive impact on his team and era than someone like, oh, Dave Stieb. I renew my suspicion that the ghost of Ray Chapman has shrouded his achievements.
9) Louis Clark Brock
Reaffirming my status as a career voter. He does well in Black and Gray Ink (owing, no doubt, to his prowess on the basepaths), and his prime WS and Top 10 WS seasons are notable. He’s hanging in there. 42nd on Ken Shouler Top 100. 58th on Sporting News Top 100. 73rd on SABR Top 100. 77th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. New York Times Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
10) Daniel Joseph “Rusty” Staub – “Le Grand Orange”
I‘m moving him up, because his career numbers actually stand out more than I realized. 358 WS is nothing to sneeze at, but his 5-year prime of 145 WS is also a standout. Imagine if he’d spent his career with one great team. 96th on SABR Top 100. 97th on Ken Shouler Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
11) Andre Nolan Dawson – “Hawk”
Compares very favorably to Whitaker, and edges out Doyle at his position. I still see a very flat career arc, but it’s a very strong one nonetheless, so I can’t really justify leaving him off. 72nd on Ken Shouler Top 100.
12) Richard Redding – “Cannonball Dick”
Definitely the best remaining Negro League pitcher. That in and of itself may not merit his election. Hanging in there thanks to my support for Mays, who has a strikingly similar arc.
13) David Gene Parker – “Cobra”
If I’ve learned anything through my association with this project, it’s that while I’m a career voter, the importance of having a strong prime has grown a great deal in my estimation. It’s that thinking that keeps Parker on my ballot, and while I’m always reviewing the matter, I’m feeling alright about this placement. There’d be no doubt, if only he’d laid off the Colombian marching powder.
14) Donald Arthur Mattingly – “Donnie Baseball”
A huge shock. Considering the toll taken by injuries, he has really impressive seasonal numbers, including ink. Compares quite favorably with Perez and Cepeda, which makes me think that I either have them too high or Mattingly too low. We’re certainly not hurting for first basemen, he does far better than I anticipated. Damn Yankees.
15) Graig Nettles – “Puff”
I remember him as a very consistent third baseman; no Schmidt or Brett, but significantly better than, say, Carney Lansford. I’m a little surprised he placed this high, but the numbers point to a strong career. Similar to Darrell Evans, who I thought went in kind of fast. Thanks to Mark Donelson for the nickname tip.

<u>Other Top 10 Finishers</u>
Louis Rogers Browning – “Pete”
A little like Rube Waddell as a slugger. Definitely better than I expected, and I think there’s a very strong case to be made that he’s might be better than Wynn. His position and era are well-represented, and I’m not entirely convinced that he’s outstanding enough to move up. In years past, he’s finished behind such luminaries as Van Haltren, Leach, Duffy, Walters, Redding, Jimmy Ryan, and Charley Jones, so he’s about to experience a remarkable reversal of fortune.
Roger Philip Bresnahan – “The Duke of Tralee”
I have no problem classifying him as a catcher, and certainly the best catcher currently eligible. But is he so great a catcher that he merits induction? I’m not sold.
Charles Wesley Jones
I understand his troubles with blacklisting and such. The three year gap is devastating. However, the numbers he did put up point to a rather flat career arc, and I have him behind Frank Howard and George J. Burns in left field.
Robert Lee Johnson – “Indian Bob”
Comes out similar to Heinie Manush, who I think is underrated, but still not quite ballot-worthy. So Bob falls short.
   119. DanG Posted: August 20, 2007 at 02:18 AM (#2491939)
Mark Donelson:
it's comments like this that make me think your objections of late have lot less to do with "something being wrong with the system" and more to do with the fact that you just don't like Browning.

For me, Browning is Exhibit A that the system has problems; for other voters it's Dawson. Let others make the complaints against him, that's alls I'm saying.
John Murphy:
It's obvious that it's not the system that bothers Dan, because he would be equally bothered by all of the low-end inductees that we have enshrined, regardless if he personally supported them or not.

Nah. It's the system, which we're stuck with at least through 2008.

It's hard for me to get a lather up about a mistake that I personally support. If a large number of voters see Perez or Dawson as mistakes but a scant minority is able to elect him, then it's a symptom of the same systemic problem that elects Browning. I don't have to write a screed against guys I support; it's their detractors job to persuade voters to avoid the "mistake" of electing them.
   120. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 20, 2007 at 02:32 AM (#2491947)
I don't have to write a screed against guys I support; it's their detractors job to persuade voters to avoid the "mistake" of electing them.


Nobody thinks you should post a "screed" for people that you do support, Dan, only that if you're complaining about our system, than you have to look at them as equal mistakes compared to the guys you dislike.

BTW, is there a HOF that doesn't include peak/prime inductees?
   121. Juan V Posted: August 20, 2007 at 02:51 AM (#2491959)
For what it's worth, I personally prefer a candidate that is near the top of 30% of ballots, to one that is in the bottom of most ballots.
   122. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: August 20, 2007 at 02:52 AM (#2491960)
Please use my prelim ballot as my official ballot. Go Roger go!
   123. Howie Menckel Posted: August 20, 2007 at 03:06 AM (#2491963)
1) Eddie Clarence Murray – “The Wizard of Oz”

????
   124. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 20, 2007 at 03:10 AM (#2491964)
1) Eddie Clarence Murray – “The Wizard of Oz”


Funny, but I thought Frank Morgan played him.
   125. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 20, 2007 at 03:11 AM (#2491965)
Please use my prelim ballot as my official ballot. Go Roger go!


Will do, 'zop.
   126. SWW Posted: August 20, 2007 at 03:14 AM (#2491967)
1) Eddie Clarence Murray – “The Wizard of Oz”

????


Uh, yeah, when I copied over the format from 2002 (Ozzie Smith, natch), I thought I had deleted that. My goof.

Please replace that with the appropriate nickname, "The Apollo of the Box".
   127. OCF Posted: August 20, 2007 at 03:14 AM (#2491968)
Since John hasn't yet moved it, I'll do the honors. This is post #168 in the discussion thread:

<u>This is 'zop's ballot</u>

--------------------------
Category 1: No-brainers

1. R. Bresnahan- I think the electorate is grossly
underrating him, unfairly penalizing his peak due to imaginary durability issues. His contemporaries universally regarded him as an all-time great. Lightyears ahead of the other eligible catchers; lightyears ahead of catchers already elected. Better as a C than Murry was as a 1B.

2. E. Murray
3. R. Sandberg-I see these two as clearly over the line....but not inner circle, either. Plain ol' HoMers.
--------------------
Category 2: In, but with flaws

4. D. Dean- Best 3-year peak available on the ballot. But no career to speak of.

5. J. McGraw- Sure, playing time matters, but a .500+ OBP overrides other concerns. Probably deserves an intangible "leadership" boost, too.

6. P. Browning-Widely thought of as an all-time great by both his generation and the one that came after; the defense and baserunning and durability drop him down this low. Uncertainty of league discount prevents him from being up with the no-brainer crowd.

7. P. Rizzuto - War credit. Could be swapped with Pesky depending on how you handle the war, but I'll go with the devil I know.

8. D. Concepcion - Clearly over the line; the only uncertainty lies with the validity of trusting the markets ability to most efficiently man the SS position in his era. I think that he was the greatest SS to play in the conditions of his time; if you believe teams behaved irrationally then you might conclude otherwise.

9. C. Jones- Minimal blacklist credit; a reasonable argument can be made that Jones was indeed planning on jumping the team, and was therefore partially responsible for his fate. I find the contemporary assessment of Jones to be underwhelming... hence, I don't think he's a no-brainer, but I'll be glad when he's elected.
----------------------
Category 3: Borderliners


10. L. Gomez - Gets a small boost for not relying on the defense.

11.R. Smith- Minimal Japan credit. Huge boost for context.

12.B. Grimes- Dan has indicated to me that he looks very good in his preliminary pitcher #'s.

13.Tiant- According to Dan's preliminary pitcher #'s, he's the best modern pitcher candidate.

14. J. Pesky-The insolvable problem of how to credit a missing wartime peak.

15.Bancroft- Since I use Dan R.'s system, I'm very pro shortstop. I like the SS's (Pesky and Rizzuto) of similar career value with a peakier career-shape better, and Concepcion is clearly more valuble once you adjust for context.
--------------

Just off ballot: E. Howard, B. Johnson, E. Cicotte, G. Nettles
   128. Mike Webber Posted: August 20, 2007 at 04:06 AM (#2491989)
Murphy wrote:
BTW, is there a HOF that doesn't include peak/prime inductees?


LPGA Tour HOF Criteria

"To qualify for entrance into the LPGA Tour Hall of Fame, members of the LPGA Tour, who were active in 1998 and going forward, must meet the criteria outlined below. An LPGA Tour member who was active prior to 1998 and has since been inactive for more than five years would be eligible for the Veteran's Category. Entrance to the LPGA Tour Hall of Fame is limited to LPGA Tour members who meet the following criteria:

1. Must be/have been an "active" LPGA Tour member for 10 years:
2. Must have won/been awarded at least one of the following - an LPGA major championship, the Vare Trophy or Rolex Player of the Year honors; and
3. Must have accumulated a total of 27 points, which are awarded as follows - one point for each LPGA official tournament win, two points for each LPGA major tournament win and one point for each Vare Trophy or Rolex Player of the Year honor earned.
"

I guess you could argue that 10 years is "only" a prime, but my guess is that is a career award only.

Might be interesting to equate this to Baseball and see what the criteria would be, some is fairly obvious as far as MVP award, is winning a major the same thing as leading the league in a triple crown category?
   129. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 20, 2007 at 10:54 AM (#2492027)
1. Must be/have been an "active" LPGA Tour member for 10 years:
2. Must have won/been awarded at least one of the following - an LPGA major championship, the Vare Trophy or Rolex Player of the Year honors; and
3. Must have accumulated a total of 27 points, which are awarded as follows - one point for each LPGA official tournament win, two points for each LPGA major tournament win and one point for each Vare Trophy or Rolex Player of the Year honor earned.
"

I guess you could argue that 10 years is "only" a prime, but my guess is that is a career award only.


But couldn't a peak (great for 3-4 years) candidate still be elected under these rules?
   130. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 20, 2007 at 11:28 AM (#2492031)
38 ballots tallied so far. Still missing ballots from: andrew siegel, Jim Sp, Mark Shirk, yest, Al Peterson, mulder and scully, the Commish, Thane of Bagarath, Chris Cobb, Ken Fischer, Devin McCullen, Tiboreau, Max Parkinson, KJOK, Michael Bass, Dan Rosenheck and fra paolo.
   131. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 20, 2007 at 12:50 PM (#2492052)
I sent e-mails to all of the voters who haven't posted a ballot yet, except for mulder and scully since my e-mail keeps returning back to me.
   132. Howie Menckel Posted: August 20, 2007 at 12:59 PM (#2492055)
"Please replace that with the appropriate nickname, "The Apollo of the Box". "

literally a LOL from here...
   133. Max Parkinson Posted: August 20, 2007 at 01:15 PM (#2492059)
2003 ballot

Someone has asked us to give a brief synopsis of our system, so:

I don’t have one, that is to say that mine is “poorly calibrated”. I really just go on gut feel for 90% of the “analysis”, with the other 10% being part BS-dump, and part name recognition. I try and rank players with as little focus on anything approaching true value as possible. That, and I ignore everything that I have learned about the game in my 3000+ games played, coached or scouted. It’s a good thing that such universally regarded players such as Jake Beckley and Nellie Fox got in to the HoM, when I would not have voted them in the top 100.

1. Eddie Murray

Played at an incredibly consistent high level for a long time.

2. Pete Browning

I am now convinced that he would have been one of (if not THE) the best hitters in the ‘80s even if there was only one league. There are durability issues, sure – but if there weren’t, he would have been elected 100 years ago.

3. Dick Redding

A strong early peak and longish career helps to overcome the lackluster middle parts of his career.

4. Dizzy Dean

Dean moved up for me when I realized that I was underrating peaks in pitchers. When Sandy Koufax can’t sniff my ballot, something’s wrong. The changes I incorporated helped Dean as well as Mendez.

5. Charley Jones

I’ve been giving him credit for his “lost” years due to blacklisting, and he vaults up the list.

6. Ryne Sandberg

I would have put him higher on memory, but here he is. Still a shoo-in.

7. John McGraw

If we were factoring in managerial success, he would have been in this hall as early as the ‘Coop. Alas, it’s looking tough for him here on playing alone. Not for me, though.

8. Gavvy Cravath

Another adjustment. Was the best RF in the game for a good 6 year stretch, with MVP-calibre seasons thrown in. I have resisted adding too much credit for MiL performance, but I couldn’t keep him from the ballot any longer.

9. Bucky Walters

A very good peak, and good hitter to boot. He’s the edge right now for elected pitchers.

10. (N)Ed Williamson

Between McGraw and Williamson, we could shore up the 3B drought pretty quick.

11. Ben Taylor

A long career, great glove 1B who played between the ABC boys and Gehrig/Foxx. If we need to fill a positional gap, here’s your man.

12. George Burns

Maybe I’m crazy, but if he had put up the exact same numbers, and been an average CF as opposed to a terrific LF (that is, no change to his talent or performance, just what was written on the lineup card), I think he’d either be in already, or would have been before Roush.

13. Tony Perez

Good player – too bad knowing Joe Morgan doesn’t get him bonus points here.

14. Bobby Veach

Someone here (DanG?) used to post lists of top OPS+ by time period. Of the 1900-1920 group, the only unelected members of the top 20 are Cravath (no. 1), Veach and Bresnahan….

15. Luis Tiant

For me, he’s just outside in/out line. I wouldn’t cry if he makes it or he doesn’t.


Others of Note:

Bresnahan – I used to have to post this a lot, and now he’s crept back to the top 10. I give catchers playing time bonuses to try and mitigate the time lost due to the demands of the position. I think that I’m doing a good job, as my PHoM has as many catchers as any position other than SS and LF. Recall that many of his good offensive years came as an OF – he doesn’t get playing time bonuses in those years from me. Maybe he does from some of you….Also, he was no great shakes defensively.

Johnson – In the ‘30s along with Klein and Hack Wilson.

Dawson – Have you ever heard the term “tweener”? That’s Dawson for me, at least in terms of HoMability. As a CF, not enough defence – as a RF, not enough bat. He’s very close to Bobby Bonds in my “system”, which means in the 50s.
   134. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 20, 2007 at 01:39 PM (#2492077)
Max, you're a bad boy. :-)
   135. Al Peterson Posted: August 20, 2007 at 02:07 PM (#2492103)
2003 ballot. Two newcomers jump to the head of this year’s class. Methodology in brief: The system used for my ranking entails a little bit of everything including WS, WARP, OPS+/ERA+, positional adjustments, even some contemporary opinion. Once that is assembled I try and make other changes to metrics when deemed fit. My hope by adding in all this material is to get the most complete picture, a composite worthy player. The results of this work tend to favor prime/peak players over career types but that is not 100% tried and true.

1. Eddie Murray (-). Steady but in a good way. Put the hurtin’ on many an opponent from both sides of the plate. The crouch, the tiny bat circles while waiting to uncoil on the pitch. Had some nice sideburns as well.

2. Ryne Sandberg (-). Edged by a nose by Murray. Hit for power, especially for a middle infielder. Excellent fielder to boot. It seemed like his career went south in a hurry.

3. Dick Redding (3). Career was long – decent peak along the way. Outstanding fastball in his day according to James/Neyer book. So he didn’t get into the Hall of Fame; maybe the information collected by HOF committee wasn’t pertinent to Redding’s prime years. He deserves some WWI credit, thus patching up a bald spot in his prime years as 1918 and 1919 were affected.

4. Norm Cash (4). Interesting debate with the Perez/Cepeda/Cash comparison. There appears to be more fielding value on his end than the others at 1B.

5. Tommy Leach (5). Combination hot corner/centerfielder could field a little, hit a little. Second all-time in inside-the-park home runs to Wahoo Sam Crawford. Someone else stated he was uniquely valuable in his particular era and I agree he meant more in the particular era he performed in.

6. Bobby Bonds (6). Even with the constant trades, drinking problem and whatnot his combination of speed/power made him a very valuable player. He wasn’t the next Mays, or as good as his son. Five tools on display.

7. Reggie Smith (7). The other Reggie wasn’t half bad. Played some CF before moving down the defensive spectrum, hitting along the way. Not real durable but lots of value when in the lineup. Should we add in the year in Japan at the end of his career? I don’t currently.

8. Tony Mullane (8). Someone mentioned The Apollo of the Box? Old time pitcher who threw plenty well, a good hitter to boot. Had some playing time issues since he missed seasons due to being blacklisted. He’s amongst the best of his era when accounting for the time outside of baseball due to conflicts with different leagues. Goes on the all-Nickname team as well.

9. Bob Johnson (9). His peak might not be as high as others but at the same time for 13 years in the majors he has the highest floor of anyone. By floor I mean what can we reasonably expect from him in terms of performance. During those 13 years you knew exactly what you got with Bob Johnson – nothing less, rarely more. I guess my system rewards consistency as well as greatness. WARP numbers like him, WS not so much. Over his career his teams underperformed Pythag W-L by 15 games so he loses some Win Shares there.

I’m afraid he’s between the two voting factions. He doesn’t have the peak but was effective longer that the high peak, short career players. He doesn’t have the career but was at a higher production level than the low peak, long career players. Either way, he stacks up nicely compared to the other LFs hanging around.

Indian Bob got a late start (one deserving of 1-2 years of MiL credit), played on bad teams in ballparks that favored pitchers, and got left out of post-war ML baseball while he was still doing well at age 39. 10 years of top 10 performances in OPS+, 106.6 WARP1 for 13 years with no padding on the front or back end.

I guess they were right. While others shot to stardom, collected an MVP, and faded from sight, along rolled Bob Johnson, punching the time clock with excellence far from the spotlight. Forgotten while playing, lost in history. Somewhere Joe Medwick laughs at the fact he got in while his contemporary remains in limbo.

10. Roger Bresnahan (10). Work was good behind the plate, also shagged some flies some years. This was in centerfield so he must have been somewhat athletic out there. Fills a short gap during the turn of the century where we have lacked a backstop. Catcher bonus to get you here.

11. Pete Browning (11). Nine years top 10 in OBP, a pretty important skill in the high error era in which he played. Nine years top3 in BA, dude could rake with the best. Does anyone know of his baseball work in Louisville before the AA started? I can see him as being a semi-pro star who stayed close to home due to his various physical issues.

12. Mickey Welch (12). Another one of those annoying 300 game winners. Was it due to luck, run support, bad opponents? Still a feat to accomplish, sometimes I need to remind myself that and not totally overlook Smilin’ Mickey. Seemed to pitch well against the other front line starters of his day.

13. Alejandro Oms (13). The body of work included Negro and Latin American play. Another career lost in translation since the Cuban time can be tricky to compute.

14. Bucky Walters (14). Short time NL prime starter who has the numbers downgraded a little by the defensive support which was above normal standards. Still high quality and heck this is the backlog.

15. Carl Mays (15). One too many inside pitches cost him any chance of people having good memories of his career. Pitched, hit OK, probably benefited from some good defenses as well. Five time 20 game winner.

16-20: Poles, C Jones, Parrish, Clarkson, Rizzuto
21-25: Shocker, Bell, Byrd, Duffy, Ryan
26-30: Willis, Lee Smith, Bancroft, Tiant, Easter
31-35: Perez, Ben Taylor, T John, Elliott, Tenace
36-40: Luque, Doyle, Grimes, Cey, Brock
41-45: Munson, Cicotte, Cedeno, Puckett, Sutter
46-50: Dawson, Dunlap, Bridges, Williamson, Nettles

Top 10 Returnees: Charley Jones (#17), Dawson (#46), Perez (#31), Puckett (#44), Duffy (#24). Charley Jones gets some of that blacklisted credit, just not enough. He is very close to Browning. Dawson looks a lot like many of the hitters in the backlog. I feel I’ve adjusted enough for his CF work to accurately gauge him. Perez, another of the late 60s players who is on the edge of worthiness. Puckett, I’m a bit perplexed. Short career, OK bat for centerfielder. Remember by the end he was a rightfielder. The glovework I wasn’t so impressed with even with him stealing HRs over the Hefty Bag in the Metrodome. Duffy’s great 1894 sticks out but the rest of the body doesn’t quite push him high enough.

As all these players are in my top 50 so an election would not cause me to be greatly disappointed. I’m just favoring others right now.

New guys: Lee Smith (#27). The in-out line of relievers really is right around Lee Arthur. Wrigley was ideal for his mode of pitching - a hard throwing closer in the late afternoon, through the shadows. Then away went the day games.
   136. andrew siegel Posted: August 20, 2007 at 02:36 PM (#2492130)
A quick, largely recut ballot as I'm in the midst of a whole set of real-life pressures.

(1) Eddie Murray (new)--Somewhere between #7 and #12 Alltime at 1B.

(2) Ryne Sandberg (new)--Somewhere between #7 and #12 Alltime at 2B. If they had played today when 22 WS 1B grow on trees, Murray and Sandberg might be reversed.

(3) Oms (3rd)--The contemporaries thought he was an All-Time great and the numbers (as thin as they are) back them up. Better than Dawson with both the glove and the bat.

(4) Bridges (4th)--Like Cash, Schang, Ted Lyons, Roush, etc., he's underrated by our tendency to focus on seasonal numbers (so why so much love for Whitaker?). Put up lots of quality and sufficient quantity. I have him with 8 truly excellent seasons--no pitcher outside the HoM has more. I never thought he'd get this high on the ballot, but I see no reason to jump him just b/c/ he has.

(5) Reggie Smith (6th)--Very similar on all dimensions to Cash and Wynn; similar offensively to Roush and Johnson. A bit more consistent than Wynn. More career value than Dale Murphy in a similar opportunity context.

(6) Leach (7th)--If you subtract Brooks Robinson's final useless seasons and project Leach's years out to 162 games, Robinson and Leach have almost identical EQA's and defensive rates in a very similar number of games. The only difference is that half of Leach's games were in CF rather than 3B. Hard to imagine that keeping him out of the HoM. A lot like Darrell Evans, only with contemporary reports that match his stellar defensive numbers.

(7) Ben Taylor (12th)--I missed the boat on him. I had him comped to Konetchy and, therefore, outside the top 50. But (1) I had Konetchy too low and (2) his offense was one rung better than Ed's. As a result, he is much closer to Hernandez or Cash. Rises this year on further examination.

(8) Norm Cash (5th)--Drops a few spots on further qualms about league quality, but still deserves induction. Put up lots of quality and quantity; quality hidden by WS b/c/ he split his games among more seasons.

(9) Bob Johnson (10th)--Doesn't jump out at you, but no major knocks on his resume--highest OWP of any long-career OF still on the board, over 300 WS with proper minor leaue credit even playing for bad teams, great consistency, excellent fielder for his position. Since his era and position are already well-represented and he doesn't have a great peak, he losses the most with Dan's numbers, but I still find him worthy.

(10) Urban Shocker (9th)--Joe makes his case well. He didn't pitch a ton of innings or a ton of years but--when you combine durability and quality and adjust for defense--he was one of the best handful of pitchers in the game for a decade. A lot like Tommy Bridges or Dave Stieb.

(11) Elliot (11th)--My tools aren't good enough to distinguish between him and Boyer. Nettles, Bell, Bando, and Cey are also similar, but the glut of 3B in the 1970's suggests that something was different then than when Elliot (and perhaps Boyer) were playing.

(12) Charley Jones (unranked/22nd)--Crediting him as an adequate major league regular in 1874 and a good one in 1875 pulls him up 10 spots. Very similar to Cravath; his better defense makes up for Cravath's offensive edge.

(13) Cravath (13th)--I give full minor league credit and see him as the best hitter not in HoM. The knock is that the other candidates for that title (folks like Tiernan, Browning, Fournier, and Frank Howard) are much further down ballot.

(14) Dale Murphy (14th)--His case rests on six seasons. We have elected a bunch of guys who reached a similar plateau for seven years (e.g., Wynn) and rejected a number who were there for only four or five (e.g., Parker). Six seasons is a very close call.

(15) Frank Chance (15th)--Could just as easily be Bresnahan, Bancroft, Dawson, Schang, or Lee Smith. In the end, I just think he was a more important player in the games he played than anyone below him on the ballot.

When you adjust Browning for league quality, you get a guy with a mid 140's OPS+ and roughly 9-plus years of playing time with limited defensive value. I have him somewhere between 45 and 60th.

Roger Bresnahan moves up substantially for me this week; he's currently 18, corded out by other good candidates. Dawson (17th) and Perez (23rd) are also close.

Dick Redding is in the category of Negro Leaguers whose numbers don't back up their reputations. He doesn't crack my top 60.

Lee Smith was on my ballot all week but got squeezed off by my re-evaluation of Jones. He's number 16, but will have to fight close battles with the other guys surrounding him for future ballot spots. I'm still up in the air about whether he, Franco, and Hoffman are just-in or just-out.
   137. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: August 20, 2007 at 03:16 PM (#2492186)
Bresnahan – I used to have to post this a lot, and now he’s crept back to the top 10. I give catchers playing time bonuses to try and mitigate the time lost due to the demands of the position. I think that I’m doing a good job, as my PHoM has as many catchers as any position other than SS and LF. Recall that many of his good offensive years came as an OF – he doesn’t get playing time bonuses in those years from me. Maybe he does from some of you….Also, he was no great shakes defensively.

I am posting this -literally- amidst a law class in which we're going over Marbury v. Madison..but I was so annoyed that I felt compared to comply.

Max, I don't deny that you've done a good job with catchers, but you're falt wrong about Bresnahan. From a peak perspective (and with Dean on your ballot, I can make a peak argument) only 1 of Bresnahan's best 5 seasons is an OF season (1904) The other years, when Bresnahan plays extra games in OF it is addition to a full season at catcher- a full season at catcher from 1905-1908 is ~90 games. You can't look at the "games Played" line; go to BBref, look at games played by position in the fielding section. Bresnahan did not have durability issues in his prime; the OF was just a bonus. 1904, Bresnahan's great CF year, is MVP caliber with NO BONUS.

Even without a playing time bonus, Bresnahan is worthy just based upon raw counting stats. If you take his average BWAA from 1905-1908 and subtract the MLB average at the position, and do the same exercise with Howard and Schang, he's half a win better than Schang and a full win better than Howard. Sure, maybe Bresnahan wasn't so great with the glove (although his peers thought he was, regardless of what BP's FWAA for deadball-catchers claims), but was he that bad? Historically bad? And his peers were blind to it?

<end rant>. We're starting McCulloch v. Maryland now.
   138. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: August 20, 2007 at 03:20 PM (#2492190)
My major league post-1893 position player voting is based entirely on my WARP system, whose methodology is elaborated with great detail in the thread devoted to it, and my salary estimator. The biggest discrepancies this causes with the group involve position scarcity (I think we grossly underrate shortstops), era preference (I like guys from difficult-to-dominate years like the 1970s and 80s), and durability vs. longevity (I vote heavily on peak as measured by rate, but don't care much whether a guy squeezed his value into particular 154- or 162-game seasons--I'll take 500 PA@150 OPS+ over 700 at 125 any day). For pitchers, I'm still playing it by ear, although I'm inclined to support guys whose careers center around 1930 as that appears to have been an extremely tough era for pitchers to dominate (Grove, Hubbell, and Vance notwithstanding). On Negro Leaguers, I think MLE's are extremely unreliable, and I use reputation (or lack of it) as a reality check (yes, I'm talking to you, Bus Clarkson). And for pitchers' box guys, I'm reliant on BP's run estimator to give me a sense of their productivity. I'm using a beefier catcher bonus now, since both their in-season durability and career length is so much lesser than other positions, and dock pre-integration players of both races for not competing against their counterparts of the other race (Babe Ruth would have had a lower OPS+ if he had played in the same league as Oscar Charleston, but Charleston would have had a lower MLE as well if the major league difficulty level were higher than it actually was due to integration).

Without further ado, to the voting:

1. John McGraw
Sometimes it really is just as simple as a .500 OBP. Yes, it's a short career, and yes, he couldn't stay on the field. But he was an inner-circle Hall of Famer when he did play, with a skill set (on-base percentage, speed, and defense) that was ideally suited for his environment, in an era when 3B was much more demanding than it was later. WS and WARP do not detect any of this value (perhaps due to the inflexibility of their run estimators and their static or nonexistent replacement levels), and furthermore unfairly penalize McGraw due to their preference for "just showing up." McGraw was a game-changing player the likes of which baseball has rarely seen since, and no one else on this ballot was half the player that McGraw was when he managed to get onto the diamond.

2. Ryne Sandberg
The depth of the 2B position changed radically during Ryno's career. When he came up, it was still basically where it had been for the liveball era; by the middle of his career, 2B as a whole were hitting above league average. Nonetheless, his 1989-92 were so terrific, combining best-at-position hitting, outstanding baserunning, Gold Glove fielding, and a difficult-to-dominate league, that he is a strong #2 for me.

3. Eddie Murray
I don't like first basemen, I don't give extra credit for in-season durability, and I don't believe that slow and steady wins the race. But Murray's 1978-85 prime is delectable, and his leagues were not easy to dominate.

4. David Concepción.
My pet candidate. To rehash: His 1973-82 are virtually identical to the best of Ozzie Smith, Ozzie just bests him on longevity (especially in the field). In an era where a banjo-hitting shortstop was worth his weight in gold, and where a 150 OPS+ was nearly good enough to lead the league, Concepción was a unique commodity and gave the Reds a massive head start over every other team in the league at the game's most critical position.

5. Roger Bresnahan.
Like McGraw and Concepción, towers over his positional peers. Since I've never been one to lose sleep over in-season durability, Bresnahan holds great appeal for me.

6. Charley Jones
Second-best hitter with a career to speak of on the ballot (after Browning), and easily outdistances him on the back of more time spent in the stronger league, far superior fielding, and one year of blacklist credit.

7. Phil Rizzuto
I love my shortstops. With appropriate war credit, Rizzuto has a strong prime to go with the huge MVP year and fistful of rings. All-world glove and a premium bat for the position.

8. Reggie Smith
I'm unconcerned by his lack of in-season durability. I do like the offense equal to inducted bats like Jimmy Wynn combined with Win Shares-approved defense, half a career in CF, a low-standard deviation era, and a year of Japan credit.

9. Pete Browning
Best hitter on the ballot, bar none. Bad fielding, unimpressive career length, ease of competition, and now my segregation penalty drag him down. But man, could he ever hit. I definitely think he belongs.

10. Johnny Pesky
The new Charlie Keller...or, if you prefer, Hughie Jennings. Had absolutely monster years immediately before and after the war, with superlative defense and best-at-position offense, and also played 1941 in the minors at a high major league All-Star level (I don't give him minor league credit for that year, but it does strengthen the case for the quality of his war credit). Then added just enough post-integration to get over the hump.

11. Dave Bancroft
Doesn't have the peak seasons of Pesky or Rizzuto, and didn't face the unfavorable league conditions that Concepción did. But was the best hitter of the bunch. They all deserve to get in if you ask me.

12. Luis Tiant
I don't have a working system for pitchers yet, but on pure run prevention (adjusted for defense), he seems to have the best combination of peak and career.

13. Graig Nettles
An all-time great with the glove, with a low replacement level and a difficult-to-dominate league.

14. Wally Schang
With greater sensitivity to early-game catching conditions, Schang's hitting and longevity stand out.

15. Burleigh Grimes
In my research on pitcher standard deviations and translated innings pitched, I noticed that pitcher performance in the late 1920's was very tightly bunched together both in terms of durability and effectiveness. Grimes seems to be the best of that bunch.

Off ballot, but supported:

Alejandro Oms
Play in Cuba denied him the opportunity to get a reputation in the US, and the MLE's seem plausible.

Dagoberto Campaneris
Speed killed in those low-scoring days. The AL's (slightly lesser) version of Concepción, with Campaneris' better baserunning not quite compensating for Concepción's better fielding.

Toby Harrah
Everyone who argues with me on Concepción says David shouldn't be credited for other teams' irrational unwillingness to trade defense for offense at shortstop in those days. Well, Texas did--and boy, was it worth it.

Buddy Bell
A better version of Brooks Robinson.

Left off

Dick Redding
I find the MLE's too sketchy.

Bob Johnson
Maybe he deserves minor league credit, but his only legit peak year was just a wartime fiction. His major league record is borderline, which makes him miss after adjusting for segregation.

Hugh Duffy
Unless someone can show me compelling evidence that he in particular caused his teams to outperform their component stats, I'll hand that credit to the manager and leave him off my ballot.

Andre Dawson
The strike season is phenomenal, and he was a high-level All-Star in '80, '82, and '83 as well. But besides that he was barely above a league-average player most years, and he somehow managed to stay in the major leagues for four straight years below replacement level.

Atanasio Perez
Nowhere close for me. Was nothing special after 1973.
   139. yest Posted: August 20, 2007 at 03:30 PM (#2492204)
2003 ballot

Sandberg , Murray , and Bancroft and make my PHOM this year


1. Don Mattingly should have got a ring in 94 (made my personal HoM in 2001)
2. Kirby Puckett was there ever athlete who lost his reputation like he did (made my personal HoM in 2001)
3. Ryne Sandberg should have won the 1990 MVP (makes my personal HoM this year)
4. Pie Traynor most 3B putouts 7 times (made my personal HoM in 1942)
5. Chuck Klein 4 hr titles 1 triple crown (made my personal HoM in 1951)
6. Tony Oliva most hits 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1983)
7. Eddie Murray better peak then I remember (makes my personal HoM this year)
8. Mickey Welch please see his thread (made my personal HoM all the way back in 1898)
9. Sam Rice imagine if he would have started earlier (made my personal HoM in 1940)
10. Pete Browning 13th in career batting avg. (made my personal HoM in 1906)
11. Hack Wilson 4 hr titles RBI season record (made my personal HoM in 1940)
12. Hugh Duffy had 100 runs or RBIs every full year he played (made my personal HoM in 1908)
13. Addie Joss 2nd in era (made my personal HoM in 1918)
14. George Kell very good hitter and fielder at important and under elected position (made my personal HoM in 1963)
15. Bill Madlock 4 batting tittles (made my personal HoM in 1994)
16. Al Oliver 1 batting title (made my personal HoM in 1991)
17. Jim Rice hit 300 7 times (made my personal HoM in 1995)
18. Harvey Kuenn led AL shortstops in putouts twice assists once (made my personal HoM in 1972)
19. Heinie Manush 330 batting avg. (made my personal HoM in 1957)
20. Hilton Smith see his thread (made my personal HoM in 1964)
21. Ray Schalk the best catcher ever (made my personal HoM in 1938)
22. George Van Haltren 31st in runs (made my personal HoM in 1925)
23. Jimmy Ryan 30th in runs (made my personal HoM in 1926)
24. Luis Aparicio being a better offensive player then Rabbit puts him here (made my personal HoM in 1979)
25. Jake Daubert 29th in triples (made my personal HoM in 1930)
26. Bobby Veach most doubles twice (made my personal HoM in 1931)
27. Bill Mazeroski 2nd greatest (fielding) 2nd baseman (McPhee‘s 1) ever (made my personal HoM in 1985)
28. Roy Thomas most times on base 6 times (made my personal HoM in 1985)
29. Dave Parker would be higher with out his extra credit (made my personal HoM in 1997)
30. Gavvy Cravath most active HRs 1918, 1919 and 1920 (made my personal HoM in 1928)
31. Lou Brock like the steals more then most (made my personal HoM in 1985)
32. Kiki Cuyler 2299 hits (made my personal HoM in 1967)
33. Lloyd Waner had the most OF putouts 4 times, finished 2nd once and finished 3rd twice (made my personal HoM in 1967)
34. Ginger Beaumont 1902 batting title (made my personal HoM in 1932)
35. John McGraw 3rd in on base percentage (made my personal HoM in 1930)
36. Steve Garvey 200 hits 6 times (made my personal HoM in 1994)
37. Jim Bottomley 2313 hits (made my personal HoM in 1968)
38. Levi Meyerle best rate season ever (made my personal HoM in 1975)
39. Eddie Yost most walks 6 times most times on base 3 times (made my personal HoM in 1987)
40. Rabbit Maranville best shortstop before Ozzie moves down do to reading accounts on how his drinking hurt his team more then the numbers show(made my personal HoM in 1939)
41. George J. Burns most walks 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1932)
42. Orlando Cepada 297 batting avg 379 HRs (made my personal HoM in 1987)
43. Stuffy McInnis led in fielding% 6 times (made my personal HoM in 1987)
44. Deacon Phillippe best walks/9 IP in the 20th centaury (made my personal HoM in 1988)
45. Babe Adams led in WHIP 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1992)
46. Jack Morris in short (because unfortunately I don‘t have time to post an extensive search on the subject) looking over retrosheet I found his ERA to be inflated somewhat by a few bad performances that overstate his ERA to win expectation leading many to believe his win record was inflated by his teammates more then I think is true though I found his teamates did prevent him from getting the loss what appears to be more then normal
for example in 1984 he went 19-11 with a 3.60 era though he only had 2 wins where he gave up more then 4 ER
there a basically few games in which rose his ERA to heights above his expected win level give him the loss but each of these games effects his era more then 1 game should.
on 6-2-1984 in 6.0 IP he gave up 5 runs 5 being ER raising his era from 1.88 to 2.20 getting the loss
on 6-12-1984 in 3.0 IP he gave up 6 runs 6 being ER raising his era from 2.11 to 2.51 getting the loss
on 6-29-1984 in 5.2 IP he gave up 5 runs 5 being ER raising his era from 2.39 to 2.63 getting the loss
on 7- 3-1984 in 4.1 IP he gave up 8 runs 8 being ER raising his era from 2.63 to 3.08 getting the loss
on 7- 18-1984 in 4.0 IP he gave up 7 runs 7 being ER raising his era from 2.99 to 3.34 getting the loss
on 8- 7-1984 in 1.1 IP he gave up 9 runs 8 being ER raising his era from 3.08 to 3.34 getting the loss
on 8-16-1984 in 3.2 IP he gave up 7 runs 7 being ER raising his era from 3.57 to 3.84with a no decision (give him the loss here but don’t take away the wins he did get from him)
(made my personal HoM in 2000)
47. Dave Bancroft led SS in range factor 7 times (makes my personal HoM this year)
48. Buddy Myer 1935 batting title (made my personal HoM in 1996)
49. Cecil Cooper most rbi twice (made my personal HoM in 1997)
50. George H. Burns most hits twice gets PCL credit (made my personal HoM in 1998)
51. Burleigh Grimes 20 wins 5 times makes my pHoM same year as Drysdale the similarities are remarkable they were both dodger pitchers, inning eaters, spitballers (though one was legal) , headhunters (made my personal HoM in 2002)


explanation for players not on my ballot
Dick Redding barring new evidence not one will make my ballot (the HoF vote has absolutely no bearing on my vote )
Charley Jones no black list points
Tony Perez needs more of a peak to meet with his career
Bucky Walters would have been in my pHoM with out WWII adjustments as he is he’s still close to it
Roger Bresnahan played to much outfield
Andre Dawson too low a BA/OBP for my tastes and not enough power to make up for it as is he’s not so far off from my ballot and may make my pHoM in the future
Bob Johnson with out WWII adjustments is borderline with them he’s quite a bit lower
   140. Paul Wendt Posted: August 20, 2007 at 03:31 PM (#2492206)
SWW
Charles Wesley Jones
I understand his troubles with blacklisting and such. The three year gap is devastating.


1883 minus 1880 = 3, but it is a two-year gap.

Patrick W
Charley Jones – He only has eight seasons that help his cause. Blackballed or not, he would need two Ruthian seasons in those missing years to make for an on/off ballot consideration.

Granting no credit before 1876 in infer.

1886 minus 1876 minus 2 = 8, but it is a nine-season (11yr) prime
   141. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 20, 2007 at 04:16 PM (#2492252)
7. Eddie Murray better peak then I remember (makes my personal HoM this year)


In fact, it was as good as Mattingly's, not to mention a far better prime and career than him. He even has a ring and great postseason numbers, to boot.
   142. mulder & scully Posted: August 20, 2007 at 04:35 PM (#2492277)
2003 Ballot: PHOM Murray, Sandberg, and I have reconsidered Dick Allen. I think some of his problems were exacerbated by his particular time and place.

Here are the factors I consider:
1. 7 year prime
2. 3 years consecutive peak
3. rank within era and position
4. career
5. per season of 648 PA - benefits players like Chance, hurts those who played in high offense eras like the 1890s
I give bonus for being an all-star by win shares or STATS
I include time missed for WWI and II in most cases.
I include time in high minors if a player is blocked because of when he played - independent minors.
I include time for some suspensions: Charley Jones - yes, Joe Jackson - no
I believe in MLEs for skin color.

1. Eddie Murray (PHOM 2003) – Top 10-ish first baseman. Great 7-year run from 1978 to 1984, then a very good 1990 with LA. Very consistent. Never put up a monster numbers year, but such a high level for so long.

2. Ryne Sandberg (PHOM 2003) – A top 10 all-time second baseman. I agree, a bit behind Bobby Grich. Great run from 1989 to 1992 and 1984 was great (especially because my Padres beat the Cubs – Garvey is still evil though.)

3. Charley Jones (PHOM 1906) - Receives full credit for his missing 2-plus years. A top 5 performer by win shares in many years. The best prime (sched adjusted) available. A top 5 peak. See the "Keltner-style" analysis on his thread for my complete feelings. A note to those who say his career is too short: If you look at what percentage of his team's games he played, he had almost the exact same career length as Elmer Flick. Was his career too short?
A top 10 position player from 1876 to 1885. Please see the Keltner List on his thread. All-time, Jones ranks in a knot of five left fielders with Simmons, Clarke, Stovey, and Magee.
Top 10 position player in 1876, 1878, 1879, 1883, 1884, 1885. Eleventh in 1877. Pro-rated 10th or 11th after blacklisted in 1880. Blacklisted in 1881 and 1882. Best player in 1884, top 4 in 1878, 1879 and 1885.

4. Mickey Welch (PHOM 1901) - I think we missed on him. Of the great pre-60' pitchers, he had some of the worst run and defensive support - compare to Clarkson or Radbourn or Keefe (when he wasn't with NY). Chris J.'s run support index shows that his wins are real. Also, beat opposing HoMers like a drum.

5. Bucky Walters (PHOM 1958) - Great peak. This ranking includes deductions for 1943-45. Best peak available (tied with Dean) among eligible white pitchers. Best NL pitcher in 1939, 1940, and 1944. 2nd in NL by a hair in 1941. Best in Majors in 1939, top 4 in other 3 years.
6. Pete Browning (PHOM 1921) - A fantastic hitter. I know he had his best run in the early AA, but he had a great year in the PL as well. Had a great peak and prime score in my system - which knocks him for being fragile.
Ranks at the top of a group of 5 center fielders between 13th and 17th all-time. Doby, Hill, and Brown are in the HoM, Duffy is not. Top 10 position player in 1882, 1883, 1884, 1885, 1887, and 1890. Best in 1882 and 1885. League ranks, 1st, 4th, 5th, 1st, 2nd, and 4th.
Moved him down 1 space because of the excellent discussion about him and the AA going on his thread. He may get moved back ahead of Walters, but this week he is here.

7. Bus Clarkson (PHOM 2000) - ranking is based on the revised MLEs. He could hit. He could field well enough. Career hampered by the integration-era destruction of the NeLs and quotas.

8. Hugh Duffy (PHOM 1919) - Great defender. Great prime and peak. All-star 5 times. twice best in league. Moved to LF because McCarthy couldn't hit anymore and you needed two CF in Boston's park - see SABR's new stadium book. Not at the level of several HOM 90s outfielders but comfortably above the CF standards.
A key member of the best team of the 1890s. Please see the Keltner List for him. Ranks in a group of 5 center fielders between 13th and 17th all-time. Doby, Hill, and Brown are in the HoM, Browning is not. Top 10 in 1890, 1891, 1892, 1893, 1894, and 1897. 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 1st, 1st, and 8th. 11th in 1895.

9. Tommy Leach (PHOM 1966) - Great defense at third and CF - gold glove level at both. A key player in one of the best defensive teams ever. Top 15 if whole career is at 3rd and top 25 in CF if whole career was there. Split the difference and he is about even with Hack and Sutton (w/o NA credit).
Top 10 in league in 1902, 1904, 1907, 1908, 1909, 1913, 1914. Rank in league/majors: 4th/5th, 14th in 1903 but 9 are outfielders, 6th t/16th t, 3rd t/7th t, 4th/9th, 7th/11th, 4th t/12th t, 4th/9th.
Best in league at 3rd: 1902, 1903, 1904. Best in majors: 1902.
Top 3 in league in outfield: 1907, 1913, 1914. 4th by one WS in 1909.

10. Vic Willis (PHOM 1942) - Best pitcher in NL two times, second best in NL two times. Almost even with McGinnity. 4 times one of the top 2 pitchers in the National League. Best in NL in 1899 and 1901, 2nd in 1902 and 1906. Top 10 most every other year.
   143. mulder & scully Posted: August 20, 2007 at 04:36 PM (#2492280)
11. Gavy Cravath (PHOM 1979) - All players, All times. All-Star 5 times by STATS and Win Shares. Top ten position player in NL in 1913 - 1917. 1st, 3rd, 1st, 6th, 7th. A top 10 player in either league from 1909-1911 while with Minneapolis. Great peak and prime - 7 times an all-star including 1910 and 1911. Unique career that was a result of his time/place.

12. George Burns (PHOM 1938) - Did everything well. Took a huge number of walks. Hit for good power. Never missed a game. Scored a lot of runs. Top 10 in NL in 1913, 1914, 1915, 1916, 1917, 1918, 1919, 1920. Rank in league/majors: 8th/20, 1st/4th, 7th/13th, 9th/17th, 3rd/5th, 3rd/8th, 2nd/4th, 7th/17th. 1921-23 in NL only: 14th, 18th, 15th.
Top 3 in NL outfield in 1913-15, 1917-19. Top 3 in majors in 1914, 17, 19.

13. Don Newcombe (PHOM 1994) - Credit for minor league years and Korea. Yes, the ERA+ were not that high, but the innings pitched were great. I give MiL credit for 1947, 1948, and 4 starts worth in 1949.
Top 5 starter in league in 1949, 1950, 1951, (Korea 1952, 1953), 1955, 1956, 1959
Rank in league/majors: 4th/9th t (1st t/5th t with MiL credit), 4th/8th, 5th/9th, 2nd/2nd, 1st/2nd, 5th/9th. Also, Korean War Credit for 1952 and 1953 at 22 WS and 23 WS gives 2 more top 4 years. For a total of 6 plus two fifths.

14. Wilbur Cooper (PHOM 1985) - An all-star 8 times. He and Bunning are very similar, but Bunning is slightly better in several ways.
Top 5 in league/majors: 1917, 1918, 1919, 1920, 1921, 1922, 1923, 1924. 4th/NR, 4th/NR, 5th/NR, 3rd/5th, 2nd/6th, 1st/3rd, 5th/NR, 2nd/5th. Plus a 6th in 1916.

15. Alejandro Ohms (PHOM 1964) –Ohms is always at the edge of my ballot. Great consistent prime. One or two big years away from being an every-year ballot member. Back on the ballot after how many years?

16. Roger Bresnahan (PHOM 1987) - Excellent peak. Playing CF well is not a demerit. In front by a comfortable margin over Howard, Schang, Munson, Parrish, and Tenace. Was so much better than his white compatriots is a added factor. Bumped by Stieb.

17. Frank Chance (PHOM 1985) - Best peak and prime by a first baseman between Connor/ Brouthers and Gehrig. Top 10 in league: 1903, 1904, 1905, 1906, 1907. Rank in league/majors: 3rd/3rd t, 2nd/5th t, 8th t/15th t, 3rd/4th, 6th t/15th t. Best first baseman in league and majors in 1903-1907, league 1908.

18. Graig Nettles (PHOM 1996): A great defensive 3rd basemen. Lacks the great years that so many 3rd basemen have in the 60s and 70s: Santo, Bando, Schmidt, Brett, Perez before he moved to 1st. Listed higher than my system says because I believe there is something my system is not catching about him.
Top 15 in league in 1971, 1972 (16th), 1974, 1975 (19th but 1 away from 15th), 1976, 1977, 1978.
Rank in league/majors: 6th t/15th t, 16th t/38th t, 13th t/31st t, 4th/9th, 11th t/20th t, 8th/16th.
Best 3b in league: 2nd in 1971 by 2, 2nd t in 1972 by 2, 1974 3rd by 3, 1975 2nd by 4, 2nd by 5 in 1976, 2nd by 4 in 1977, 2nd by 1 in 1978
Moved up based on reconsideration of comments, esp. Dan R.
19. Burleigh Grimes (PHOM 1961) – I like him better than Faber, Rixey, and Ruffing. Top 5 in league/majors: 1918, 1920, 1921, 1924, 1928, 1929. 2nd/5th t, 2nd/3rd t, 1st/4th t, 3rd t/NR, 2nd t/2nd t, 2nd t/NR.

20. Elston Howard (PHOM 1994): I kept overlooking him. I am giving more of a benefit of the doubt about his opporunity issues: Korea, race. Catcher bonus.
Top 10 in league in 1961, 1963, 1964
Rank in league/majors: 6th t/11th t, 3rd t/12th t, 3rd/8th.
Best catcher in league in 1961, 1963, 1964. In majors in 1961, 1963, 1964.
   144. mulder & scully Posted: August 20, 2007 at 04:37 PM (#2492281)
21. Jack Fournier (PHOM 1997): Noticed that I forgotten about him when he is given appropriate credit for 1917, 1918, and 1919. Remember he did have a 142 OPS+ for his career.
Top 10 in league in 1915, 1918 (minor league credit) 1921, 1923, 1924, 1925. Rank in league/majors: 5th t/7th t, (9th/17th), 5th t/14th t, 5th t/10th t, 3rd/4th, 3rd/6th.
Best first baseman in league: 1915, 1921, 1923, 1924, 1925. Best in majors: 1915, 1923, 1924, 1925.
I believe the MLEs for Fournier are too low because they give him OPS+ of 117, 137, and 122 at ages 27, 28, 29. Those would be his 8th/10th/and 11th highest OPS+ for his career. He may not have set career highs but I think they would have been more line with his career..

22. Larry Doyle (PHOM 1987): Great hitter at second. Defense left something to be desired. McGraw usually knew what he was doing. Maybe he did here too? Top 10 in league in 1909, 1910, 1911, 1912, 1913, 1915. Rank in league/majors: 4th t/8th t, 7th/11th, 4th/9th, 3rd/9th, 9th/22nd, 2nd/5th.
Best second baseman in league: 1909 (t), 1910, 1911, 1912, 1915, 1916 (t), 1917. Second best in majors to Collins in 1909, 1911, 1912, 1915. Third best in majors behind Collins and Lajoie in 1910.

23. Frank Howard (PHOM 2001): Career was mismanaged by the Dodgers, but at that point they had more talent than they knew what to do with.
Top 12/15 in league in 1962, 1965, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971. Rank in league/majors: 12th t/18th t, 8th t/22nd t, 6th t/14th t, 2nd/2nd, 4th t/8th t, 6th t/10th t, 15th t/33rd t.
Top 3 outfielder in league: 1968, 1969, 1970. Top 3 in majors: 1968, 1970.

24. Dale Murphy (PHOM 2002): Member of the Wile E. Coyote School of Career Paths (Jimmy Ryan a charter member). CF is a tough position. There are the obvious: Cobb, Speaker, Charleston, Mantle, DiMaggio, Griffey, Snider, Stearnes, Torriente, and Hamilton (in some order) then what? In a knot of players at the edge of CFers. Definitely ahead of Carey and Ashburn though.
All-Star in NL: 1980, 1982, 1983, 1984, 1987. All-Star in majors: 1982, 1983, 1984, 1987
Top 15 in NL/majors: 1980, 1982, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1986, 1987
Rank: 4th/10th, 2nd/3rd, 2nd t/5th t, 2nd t/4th t, 5th/8th t, 15th t/NR, 6th t/9th t.

25. Luke Easter: The ultimate what-if player.

26. Herman Long (PHOM 1997): Another key player on the 1890s Bostonians. Fantastic fielder. Need to review his defensive numbers. Top 10 in league in 1891, 1892, 1893 . Rank in league/majors: 2nd/3rd t, 6th, 3rd
Best shortstop in league/majors: 1891, 1893. Best in league: 1889.

27. Dick Redding (PHOM 1975): Not enough shoulder seasons to go with the big 4 years. I pulled the trigger too soon on him. Probably would make the PHOM in the last 5 years.

28. Al Rosen: What if...
Top 10 in league: 1950, 1951, 1952, 1953, 1954
Rank in league/majors: 4th t/7th t, 5th t/14th t, 3rd/5th, 1st/1st, 7th/14th.
Best third baseman in AL in 1950, 1952, 1953, 1954. Best in majors in 1950, 1952, 1953.

29. Ken Singleton: Slugging outfielder for Weaver’s Orioles. Career reputation is hindered by playing in a pitcher’s park in an average/slightly lower than average era for hitting.
Top 15 in league in: 1973, 1975, 1976, 1977, 1978, 1979, 1980,
Rank in league/majors: 9th t/13th t, 1st t/2nd t, 12th t/24th t, 2nd/2nd, 4th t/8th t, 3rd/5th, 7th t/12th t
Top 3 outfielder in league in 1975, 1977, 1978, 1979. In majors in 1975, 1977, 1979.
Could move up.

Not in top 30:
Andre Dawson: Take a walk. He played in a time when OFs (and Mike Schmidt) put up the big numbers in the NL. His prime and peak scores are not high enough.
Top 15 in league in: 1979, 1980, 1981, 1982, 1983
Rank in league/majors: 14th t/NR, 3rd/9th, 2nd/4th, 9th t/18th t, 7th t/13th t.
Top 3 OF in league in 1980, 1981. In majors in 1981.

Bob Johnson: The 11th or so best hitter (not player, hitter) in the AL in the 1930s. With the NeLer and NLers and pitchers included, he is not a top 30 player for a decade that already has the most HoMers. Everybody hit in the AL in the 1930s. Look how many top 100 OBP/SLG careers are centered in that decade from the AL.

Tony Perez: A couple of very good years as a third baseman then many average first baseman years (ie. performing as an average first baseman). Not in my top 50.
   145. yest Posted: August 20, 2007 at 05:28 PM (#2492333)
<i>A member of the All Famous Civil War Generals Team:
<i>

Ty Cobb (Brig. Gen. Thomas R.R. Cobb)
   146. yest Posted: August 20, 2007 at 05:28 PM (#2492334)
<i>A member of the All Famous Civil War Generals Team:
<i>

Ty Cobb (Brig. Gen. Thomas R.R. Cobb)
   147. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: August 20, 2007 at 05:43 PM (#2492354)
I intend to get my ballot in before the deadline, but it will be close. No complaints if I screw it up or the power dies or whatnot. And yes, I did say I wasn't going to do that anymore, but I was away at Gencon from Wednesday to Sunday, and I didn't have it ready ahead of time. On the plus side, I got to meet Rusty there and talk for a few minutes (he was a lot busier than I was).
   148. yest Posted: August 20, 2007 at 05:45 PM (#2492356)
In fact, it was as good as Mattingly's, not to mention a far better prime and career than him. He even has a ring and great postseason numbers, to boot.

my favriote Eddie Murray Numbers are 261/336/423

Funny, but I thought Frank Morgan played him.

for the record his best role was MR. Matuschek in The Shop Around the Corner (1940)
   149. yest Posted: August 20, 2007 at 05:50 PM (#2492362)
A member of the All Famous Civil War Generals Team:

also Ernie Banks
(General Nathaniel Banks)
   150. yest Posted: August 20, 2007 at 05:56 PM (#2492370)
A member of the All Famous Civil War Generals Team:

also Ernie Banks
(Major General Nathaniel P. Banks)
   151. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 20, 2007 at 06:05 PM (#2492382)
my favriote Eddie Murray Numbers are 261/336/423


I assume that was posted because I'm a Met fan. :-)
   152. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 20, 2007 at 06:06 PM (#2492383)
for the record his best role was MR. Matuschek in The Shop Around the Corner (1940)


He was also great in The Mortal Storm.
   153. Ken Fischer Posted: August 20, 2007 at 07:09 PM (#2492493)
2003 Ballot
includes my top 85

1-Eddie Murray 437 WS
Murray is one of the top 10-15 first baseman in history. Solid career numbers…with a good year virtually every year.

2-Dick Redding
He is ranked by many as one of the top pitchers of the pre-Negro League days.

3-George Van Haltren 344 WS
His numbers deserve the high ranking. I know…I’m a Van diehard…GVH and Stephens. I just can’t drop them down. They belong.

4-Mickey Welch 354 WS
300+ wins are great in any era.

5-Carl Mays 256 WS
256 win shares in an offense dominated era is impressive.

6-Ryne Sandberg 346 WS
A proto type for today’s power second baseman.

7-Craig Nettles 321 WS
Great plays on the big stage. His low career batting average keeps him out of the other hall. He probably stayed around 3 years too long.

8-Andre Dawson 340 WS
Besides being an outstanding player he showed some style when he dared the Cubs into his late 80s contract.

9-Vern Stephens 265 WS
His comps are Doerr & Lazzeri but I believe he was better. A forerunner of the modern power hitting shortstop.

10-Wally Schang 245 WS
He played for several flag winners. Schang had great plate discipline. At the age of 39 he led the AL in HBP.

11-Bob Johnson 287 WS
A raw deal…Indian Bob will forever be hurt by playing for mostly bad teams and the overlapping eras he played in (Live Ball & War Years).

12-Pete Browning 225 WS
A great Players League year shows Pete belongs.

13-Roger Bresnahan 231 WS
Made 3 major position changes in his career. His stats are hurt by the Dead ball era.

14-Tony Mullane 399 WS
Gray Ink 198. Late in his career won 25 games after the mound was moved. Too bad he was at the end.

15-Tony Perez 349 WS
A career pick for the volume of his work.

# 75
Jones…too short of a career for my usual voting pattern…career

16-Lou Brock 348 WS
17-Luis Tiant 256 WS
18-Burleigh Grimes 286 WS
19-Jim Rice 282 WS
20-Gil Hodges 263 WS
21-Dave Parker 327 WS
22-Dick Lundy
23-Curt Flood 221 WS
24-Jim Kaat 268 WS
25-Red Schoendienst 262 WS
26-Bill Buckner
27-Ray Dandridge
28-Kirby Puckett 281 WS
29-Sam Rice 327 WS
30-Jimmy Ryan 316 WS
31-Luis Aparico 293 WS
32-Orlando Cepeda 310 WS
33-Tommy John 289 WS
34-Ernie Lombardi 218 WS
35-Tony Lazzeri 252 WS
36-Don Mattingly 263 WS
37-Leon Day
38-Judy Johnson
39-Dizzy Trout 228 WS
40-Lave Cross 278 WS
41-Dizzy Dean 181 WS
42-Bobby Mathews 158 WS
43-Hilton Smith
44-Bill Wright
45-Maury Wills 253 WS
46-Pie Traynor 274 WS
47-Rabbit Maranville 302 WS
48-Hugh Duffy 295 WS
49-Bucky Walters 258 WS
50-Firpo Marberry 177 WS
51-Chet Brewer
52-Chuck Klein
53-Bud Fowler
54-Sammy T. Hughes
55-Bill Mazeroski 219 WS
56-Mike Tiernan
57-Jim McCormick 334 WS
58-Mickey Vernon 296 WS
59-Newt Allen
60-Oliver Marcelle
61-Dolf Luque 241 WS
62-Tommy Leach 328 WS
63-Jack Quinn 287 WS
64-Babe Adams 243 WS
65-Eddie Cicotte 247 WS
66-Mike Griffin 245 WS
67-Heavy Johnson
68-Frank Howard 297 WS
69-Kiki Cuyler 292 WS
70-John McGraw 207 WS
71-Herman Long
72-George Stovey
73-Waite Hoyt 262 WS
74-Ben Taylor
75-Charlie Jones
76-Addie Joss
77-Babe Herman 232 WS
78-Lefty Gomez 185 WS
79-Bill Monroe
80-Nip Winters
81-Bruce Petway
82-Tommy Bond 243 WS
83-Vic Willis
84-Will White 239 WS
85-Harry Hooper 321 WS
   154. Thane of Bagarth Posted: August 20, 2007 at 08:45 PM (#2492667)
2003 Ballot
My ranking system heavily weights 5 year peaks, but additional career value can add up, too. I rely primarily on the uberstats, with about a 60/40 split between WARP and WS. I’m rather liberal with war and minor league credit. I use a catcher bonus of up to 10% based on the proportion of a player’s career spent behind the plate.

I think all of the WARP #s I’m using were up to date as of the beginning of December. I have already run the numbers for all “serious” eligibles (i.e. >200 career Win Shares) through the 2006 election.

1) Eddie Murray
Massive career value (140 WARP3, 437 WS) and a respectable peak. I have him #36 all-time among position players.

2) Ryne Sandberg
Significantly lower than Murray, but still a great player. #75 all-time among position players, and probably in the top 10 second basemen.

3) Tony Perez
Perez is not terribly dissimilar from Staub—they’re almost identical by Win Shares. His peak according to WARP is substantially better than Staub’s (46.6 to 40.5) and he’s got more career value to boot (109.5 to 102.7), so Tony gets the edge.

4) Andre Dawson
Hawk racked up a ton of career value, but so did Perez and Staub. A peak that’s a little better than Staub and not quite as good as Perez lands him here.

5) Rusty Staub
By Win Shares he looks like a solid HoMer: 358 career, 145 top-5 consecutive. By WARP he’s a bit more marginal: 40.5 top 5 WARP3 isn’t super, but 102.7 career is respectable.

6) Frank Tanana
His WARP totals are very good (111 WARP3 career, 47 top 5 seasons), but Win Shares has him as run of the mill. I lean a little more towards WARP in my rankings so Tanana is in the top half of the ballot this year.

7) Bucky Walters
A very good pitcher…I’m not convinced that he needs to be docked for the superb Reds defense more than the DTs already do.

8) Ben Taylor
The lack of data from his prime years makes all of this highly speculative, but I’m ranking him as if he was Keith Hernandez with a little less peak and more career (career totals of around 105 WARP3 and 320 Win Shares; with top 5s of 46 and 135, respectively).

9) Bob Johnson
100 WARP3, 287 WS for career plus Minor League credit makes him a legit HoM candidate.

10) Dick Redding
2nd best NeL pitcher of the deaball era, I’m hoping we’ll give him his due eventually.

11) Kirby Puckett
Would be greatly helped if he had 3-4 more years in the rabbit-ball era of the late ‘90s. He’s also hurt a little in that he didn’t get to add 2-3 filler years at the beginning of his career.

12) Bobby Bonds
Similar in career value to Indian Bob (93 WARP3, 302 WS). 149 WS in top five consecutive seasons is impressive, though not unprecedented.

13) Graig Nettles
Although his peak numbers are a little lower than Bonds & Singleton, career totals are a little better…Nettles ends up somewhere in the middle.

14) George Van Haltren
GVH seems to be an obvious HoMer if you just look at Win Shares (344 career, 133 top 5 consecutive—before season length adjustments); however, WARP (especially WARP3) is not nearly as favorable: 86.5 career, 36.4 top 5.

15) Ken Singleton
Similar overall career and peak value to Bonds. Both have 302 WS, just over 90 WARP3; top 5s of about 150 WS, 46(BB)/48(KS) WARP3

The Rest of the Top 50
16) Dale Murphy—Over half of his career value comes from an impressive 5-year peak. Razor thin margin separates him from Singleton.
17) Luis Tiant—By WARP alone (98.2 career, 45.3 top 5 WARP3), I’d have him higher than Walters, but Win Shares is not as generous (256 career, 108 top 5 consec.).
18) Bill Monroe
19) Jimmy Ryan
20) Gavy Cravath
21) Dizzy Trout
22) Tommy John
23) Buddy Bell
24) Charley Jones—Always close to the ballot, if not on it. I give him credit for 2 blackball/blacklist/whatever years.
25) Sam Rice
26) Brett Butler
27) Don Mattingly
28) Tommy Leach—He’s a pretty good career candidate with a decent peak. #28 this year is only a hair’s breadth behind #15.
29) Bus Clarkson
30) Rabbit Maranville
31) Norm Cash
32) Jim Kaat
33) Dave Parker
34) Reggie Smith
35) Jack Clark
36) Buzz Arlett
37) Burleigh Grimes
38) Jack Quinn
39) Bob Elliot
40) Jose Cruz
41) Harry Hooper
42) Dave Concepcion
43) Ron Cey
44) Vada Pinson
45) Phil Rizzuto
46) Alejandro Oms
47) Hugh Duffy—His uberstat numbers don’t convince me it’s a mistake to rank him here, though he isn’t terribly far behind some of the OFs at the bottom of my ballot.
48) Rick Reuschel
49) Orlando Cepeda
50) Cesar Cedeno

New Players Not in Top 100:
Lee Smith—I have him right around Rollie Fingers territory, which is way off ballot. I liked Gossage a lot more.

Returning Consensus Top 10 Not in My Top 100:
Roger Bresnahan—He’s neck and neck with Thurman Munson…which means not HoM-worthy in my estimation.
Pete Browning— He takes a real beating in the WARP1-3 conversions. I have voted for him in the past, but right now I’ve got him falling farther and farther behind the real ballot contenders.
   155. fra paolo Posted: August 20, 2007 at 09:29 PM (#2492731)
[I've had some troubles keeping track of HoM dates, capped by a misapprehension over whether my telephone line was working, hence a lack of communication of late.] I slightly prefer peak to career value. I also believe strongly in positional balance on the ballot, although I'll break with it to put strong candidates in appropriate slots. I start ranking players by +5 WARP3 seasons, then go on from thereby studying traditional stats. I also value being the best in the league at one's position for an extended period (preferably four years running).

1) Eddie Murray I'm not yet prepared to concede Murray a place on the inner circle, but he's a no doubt HoMer in my book.

2 Ryne Sandberg This is a head over heart choice. I was disappointed in Sandberg's WARP3 totals, and he's arguably in last place when compared with electees Randolph and Whitaker. However, the consensus of uber-metrics is that he's worth more than my number three.

3 Bill Mazeroski Possibly the greatest defensive 2b ever. Maz's Win Shares credentials may look unimpressive, but where WARP is concerned he's a champion. He's certainly got a better case than inductee Nellie Fox, and not far behind inductee Bobby Doerr.

4 Tony Perez Maybe Dave Concepcion offers a little more career value than Perez, but Perez has a better prime.

5 Dave Concepcion Concepcion stands out at his position and has more career value than anyone else except the two shortstops above him.

6 Kirby Puckett Every one of Puckett's 12 seasons was +5 WARP3. I find him and Dawson to be very close, and for the preliminary I'm giving Puckett the first

7 Bob Johnson I like him for his 12 +5 WARP3 seasons.

8 Luis Tiant I wouldn't give an 'elect-me' slot to any of the pitchers remaining, but out of those who made my ballot, Tiant gets the highest placing.

9 Pie Traynor A very good 3b for a long time.

10 Thurman Munson Depending on where you bookend Freehan's prime, Munson is better or almost as good. His career value is almost equal. Why isn't he attacting more votes?

11 Alejandro Oms My leading right-field candidate at the moment.

12 Brett Butler I like the shape of his career better than Dawson's, even if it is shorter. I'd almost put him ahead of Puckett, and maybe I will next year.

13 Tommy Bridges Bridges hasn't got the same career value as Dave Stieb, but he's got more +5 WARP3 seasons and fractionally more peak.

14 Burleigh Grimes Grimes also has more +5 WARP seasons than Stieb.

15 Tim Wallach I think he compares well with the lower ranks of 3bs already in the HoM.

Top tens not on ballot.
Cannonball Dick Redding has too short a peak for me, and not enough of what I’d call a prime.
Browning, Duffy, Jones, Bresnahan all fall short on length of prime, although Jones mounts a strong case.
Andre Dawson It looks close, but I think Butler has more peak.

New Guys
Lee Smith I just don't think he's quite there. His value puts him in that Walters-Grimes-Willis group, but on the whole I'd rather have a starter that good on my team than a relief pitcher.
   156. Chris Cobb Posted: August 20, 2007 at 09:40 PM (#2492742)
2003 Ballot

I’ve celebrated the first year of my second century of voting by revamping my system. I have fully incorporated the findings of Dan R’s WAR for players from 1960 to the present, and I have done some work on the decades of 1900 and 1940. My measures—career, total peak, and peak rate—have not changed, but I am looking at those measures in WAR as well as in WARP and WS. Because I believe it calculates value more reliably than the other systems because it sets replacement level properly, I am weighting WAR’s results as 50% of the total, with WARP and WS getting 25% each. For pitchers, I am still relying on my homegrown win shares and WARP1, though I am starting to think about integrating Joe Dimino’s PA to be a counterpart for pitchers of Dan’s WAR.

Using career, total value above average, and peak rate in the three systems, I rank players against their immediate contemporaries (grouped by the decade in which they had the most value). I then calculate percentage value above or below the approximate in-out line for that decade (which is set based on number of ML and NeL teams and population factors) and use that percentage to integrate the decade-by-decade rankings. Adding WAR into my system has shifted the baseline, so the percentages for post-1960 players are not equivalent to the percentages for pre-1960 players. I have, therefore, eyeballed the merger of the lists, balancing a player’s percentage of the in-out line value with the difference between his value and the in-out line when setting the rank order. The in-out line for position players 1960-1980 is about 230. I am aiming for the same line for each decade, but I don’t have enough data yet to set the line for sure for the 1940s and 1900s.

(#) = Last year’s ranking
% = percentage above below approximate in-out line value for the player’s decade (old system)
Total = result of new system (for post-1960 players)

1. Eddie Murray (n/e). Total = 337.22 (in-out line is at 230). One of the great first basemen of all time. My system sees him as easily the best first baseman since Johnny Mize, whose value is almost identical to Murray’s. Ahead of them, as of 2002, are only Gehrig, Anson, Foxx, and Connor. Dan Brouthers is also almost identical in value to Murray, but if I had to put them in rank order I’d put Murray #5 all time, with Mize at #6 and Brouthers at #7, I think.
2. Ryne Sandberg (n/e). Total = 292.13. #1 second baseman of the 1980s, a bit ahead of Whitaker, and farther ahead in peak value. Not an all-time great at his position like Murray, but probably about #11 all time, behind Collins, Hornsby, Morgan, Lajoie, Gehringer, Carew, Robinson, Barnes, Frisch, and Grich, in more or less that order. He’s right around the middle of the HoM.
3. Dave Bancroft (3). % = 1.0463. If he could have stayed in the lineup more, we’d have elected him long ago, as he was a slightly better ballplayer than Sewell with a longer career. But having few seasons of 145+ games hurts him.
4. Alejandro Oms (4) % = 1.0407. Oms has a long, strong primes without a great peak, like most of the top candidates in my backlog pool, such as Fingers, Bancroft, Randolph, and Leach.
5. Buddy Bell (9). Total = 255.29. Better than I realized. Both WARP and WS love his defense, and he’s on the good side of the in-out line by both metrics in my system. Very similar to Nettles, but his defensive excellence appears to have lasted longer. My system’s use of WAR shows exactly the same closeness between Bell and Nettles, though it causes them to move up, as a pair, in the overall rankings.
6. Graig Nettles (10). Total = 254.18. Great defender, decent hitter for a long time.
7. Rabbit Maranville (8) % = 1.1502. An all-time great defensive shortstop who hit enough in his prime to play at a consistent, all-star level. Current leader among eligible players in career WARP1 even without war credit for 1918 (which he also merits), he is the only long-career shortstop between Wagner and Appling. RCAP study indicates that my system overvalues him, but he still has a strong career argument. I am curious how his ranking will shift when I extend my use of WAR to the 1910s and 1920s.
8. Tommy John (7). Total = 251.42. He doesn’t have a great peak, but his 12-14 year prime is about as good as any eligible pitcher’s, and he adds another 4-6 good years on top of that, which is quite extraordinary. He is the Jake Beckley of pitchers, and he ranks about where Beckley ranked before his recent election.
9. Tommy Leach (6). Total = 237.65. Outstanding player for a long time. Andrew Siegel’s brief analysis of his case is excellent, and Dan R’s war2 shows that his play in relatively high SD leagues was still very valuable, as does Joe Dimino’s PA analysis using Dan’s numbers. He slips a little bit with WAR added into the system, though. I won’t drop him farther, though, until I get the in-out line for each decade more reliably set.
10. Andre Dawson (n/e). Total = 249.88. Perhaps overrated in my system, but he was a good to great player for sixteen years, 1977-92, which gives him a truly outstanding career. He was not quite as good as Puckett or Bobby Bonds over their twelve-year primes, but he wasn’t far off their value, and the additional four prime years put him ahead.
11. Reggie Smith (25) Total = 243.15. Fully incorporating Dan R’s WAR into my system from 1960-present brings Smith up onto my ballot. Never had dominating seasons because his batting and fielding peaks are separate and he was out of the lineup a lot, but he never had a bad year, either.
12. Bus Clarkson (12). % = 1.00. Lots of discussion of his new MLEs has ended with his value looking about like it did before the revision, in my view. His career profile reminds me a lot of Darrell Evans, with a little more defense a little less offensive peak (though with regression it’s hard to judge peak). Both he and Evans were very good hitters all through their 30s because they really developed their “old player skills” of plate discipline and power in ways that offset their decline in other areas. It’s also the case, of course, that he’s similar to Perez, another power hitter who shifted from 3B to 1B in the course of his career. Perez shifted over at 30, though, while Evans made the shift at around 35, and Clarkson would have shifted over at 35-37. His fielding, then, gives him a significant edge over Perez.
13. Charley Jones (14). % = 1.00. Back on my ballot after the 1999 star glut has mostly cleared. I give him 2+ years credit for the blacklisting. The only player still in the backlog with an argument to have been the best player in baseball at his peak. I’ve recently flipped him with Bonds. We are seeing more and more players who are about Bonds’ equal from the 1970s and 1980s: Jones stands out a lot more among his contemporaries, I think. I am seeing him closer to the Jimmy Wynn model.
14. Bobby Bonds (15) Total = 241.03. Similar to Jimmy Wynn, but not as strong a peak.
15. Burleigh Grimes (16). % = 1.00. Had a strong 14 year prime, in which he was a huge workhorse, but his value before and after his prime was minimal. John’s better career pushes him ahead.

2003 Off-Ballot, Sitting on the All-Time in-out Line

16. Bret Butler (n/e). Total = 242.03 A very surprising result; I had no idea my system would find him anywhere near the in-out line, let alone above it. I’ll be interested to see how the discussion of his candidacy goes (it’s already been interesting). I’m going to start him out near where the numbers put him, but off ballot. Joe Dimino’s PA analysis using Dan R’s numbers reinforces my sense that WAR shows him well: I’ll continue to consider Butler carefully.
17. Luis Tiant (23). Total = 240.33. My system likes his effectiveness, even though he was not especially durable for his time. His durability in the early 1970s may have been affected by his pitching in an extreme hitter’s park.
18. Dave Concepcion. Total = 238.22. On my radar for the first time. Whether he’ll eventually get a vote from me depends on how the system revamp moves around the pre-1960 players, but he is definitely over my own in-out line.
19. Norm Cash. (19) Total = 237.23 A dark-horse candidate, but the best remaining position player from the 1960s.
20. Ron Cey (37). Total = 235.52. System revamp moves him up a little, just across the in-out line. A smidge better than Ken Boyer, but his ballot-timing was worse.
21. Gavvy Cravath (22). % = 1.00. Not as well-rounded as Roush, Oms, Minoso, and Wynn, not as strong on peak as Keller, Kiner, or Jones. But still a tremendous hitter whose value has been overlooked. Discussion of his case over the years has made me fairly certain that he does not have a hidden peak in his AA years as gadfly argued some time ago, but was a pretty similar player then to what he was in Philadelphia. I am therefore have a hard time seeing what makes him any better than Bob Johnson.
22. Johnny Pesky (45). Total = 231.87. WAR highlights the strength of his peak. The best unelected major-leaguer of the 1940s.
23. Bob Johnson (25). % = 1.00. Back on my radar
24. Ken Singleton (38) Total = 230.61. Passes Staub and Perez among 1970s bats to cross the in-out line. His fine performance in my study of high-peak hitters didn’t hurt him in my estimation.
25. Jimmy Ryan (28). % = 1.00. The best of the remaining 1890s outfielders.
26. Herman Long (29). % = 1.0192. His case is of the same sort as Maranville’s, but he was not as brilliant a fielder and had a shorter career, so when Maranville drops to where Long was, Long drops to the all-time in-out line or thereabouts. Dan R’s numbers on Long are not encouraging, so he slips a bit his year.
27. Dick Redding (30). % = 1.00. None of the additional, reliable data provided by Gary A. shows Redding to be pitching at a level that looks worthy of the HoM. None of the years reputed to be his best are part of this additional documentation, but the more data that shows him looking like a pitcher who was a bit above average in the NeL and, therefore, about average in the ML, the more his case is weakened, in my view. I’m not dropping him out of the picture altogether, but I’m putting him, for the moment at the bottom of the borderline-in group of players. It seems probable to me now that, unless the trend in evidence turns, he will drop further. It’s very hard for me right now, for instance, to accept that he was probably better than Urban Shocker and Don Newcombe.
   157. Chris Cobb Posted: August 20, 2007 at 09:41 PM (#2492743)
------------- Below the Line by no more than 5% ----------------

28. Rusty Staub (21) Total = 229.38. Adding WAR brings Staub to a spot in my rankings that seems more intuitively correct, countering the inflation of his value by the low replacement levels of WS and WARP. His profile is a lot like Jimmy Ryan’s, but I think Ryan’s is more meritorious because it was harder to put up a long career in the 1890s than in the 1970s.
29. Bill Monroe % = .9922
30. Don Newcombe % = .9886
31. Urban Shocker % = .9867
32. Tony Mullane (n/r). If Charley Jones is looking more like an 1870s candidate, then Mullane is the best remaining 1880s candidate. A huge star in the AA, he was an effective two-way player, also. This placement does not include hold-out credit. He’s back in the rankings not because of Dan R’s work, but because reviewing Pete Browning’s case led me to look at the 1880s again, and I realized I had lost track of Mullane and a few other players from that decade.
33. Carlos Moran (33). This is a very preliminary placement, pending the completion of my study of him and a further look at Bill Monroe, whose case has also been reopened by new statistical analysis. Moran is in the neighborhood of Tommy Leach, Monroe, and Johnny Evers. I have Leach somewhat ahead (and on ballot) due to better career value, so Moran’s initial placement is halfway between Monroe and Evers. I hope to have him more definitely placed before we catch up to the present
34. Toby Harrah (n/r). Total = 228.38. WAR foregrounds the value of Harrah’s hitting at shortstop during the 1970s, when few shortstops could hit at all.
35. George Burns % = .9879
36. Phil Rizzuto (n/r). Total = 226.97. Like several other shortstops, he leaps up in my rankings when WAR is included. I’m still working on setting the in-out line properly for the 1940s, so this is conservative. He could go higher.
37. Chet Lemon (n/r) Total = 226.67. If we are going to take seriously the rise in the importance of centerfield defense after 1970, candidates like Lemon ought to benefit.
38. Frank Tanana (50). Total = 226.42.
39. Tony Perez (18). Total 226.35. The WAR perspective drops Perez considerably. He’s still just inches from the in-out line, but there are about 20 more players closer than WARP/WS estimates in my system.
40. Lee Smith (n/e). Total = 222.7 Just a little bit below the in-out line, I have Smith as the #4 relief pitcher among eligibles through 2003, trailing only HoMers Wilhelm, Gossage, and Fingers. It’s clear that Eckersley will rank ahead of him as a hybrid, and we can begin by this time to speculate about Rivera and Hoffman, who, if they sustain their current excellence, will pass Smith and merit induction.
41. Roger Bresnahan (n/r). Total = 222.22. WAR’s view of catcher replacement level brings the Duke of Tralee back into my rankings. With Lance Parrish’s demotion, he’s now the top-ranked catcher, narrowly edging Gene Tenace. If elected, he wouldn’t be a bad choice, as there is a gap at catcher and he is the best of his era, but I think his playing time still comes up short. If he hadn’t become a player-manager, he probably would have garnered the playing time he needed. Or if he had avoided some suspensions earlier in his career . . .
42. Jose Cruz (58). Total = 222.37.
43. Gene Tenace (n/r). Total = 221.37. WAR shows him in a good light, making him the #2 catcher in my rankings at present. Like Parrish above him, he may shift significantly when I settle the catcher bonus, though he is likely to move up.
44. Kirby Puckett (17). Total = 221.37. After ranking him well above where my system placed him last year, I’ve decided for now to put him where the system shows.
45. Joe Tinker (24). Total = 221.18 Looks like Ozzie Smith, but with only 3/4 of Ozzie’s career. Slips with WAR evaluation, which raises replacement level for the shortstops of the aughts. But he doesn’t slip as much as Johnny Evers, who has dropped out of the rankings list.
46. Bert Campaneris (n/r). Total = 220.9. Another shortstop whose ranking is raised by WAR.
47. Jim Kaat (51) Total = 220.85. Addition of WAR to the 1960s position players around him affects Kaat’s relative standing almost not at all.
48. Dom Dimaggio (27). Total = 220.65 Drops a bit relative to the 1940s infielders. Still a fine player.
49. Wilbur Wood (n/r) Total = 220.6. Should have been ranked years ago, but I had overlooked him in my lists. Highly effective as a reliever and as a starter, just not quite for long enough. A bit surprised no peak voters are supporting him.
50. Dale Murphy (20). Total = 220.31. WAR brings out how little value Murphy added outside his peak. He was a great player for five years out of six, but the rest of his career wasn’t worth much.
51. Rick Reuschel (48) Total = 220.18. I still don’t see what Joe sees, but when I integrate his Pennants Added into my system, Reuschel will surely rise. The only question is how far.
52. Bruce Sutter. Total = 219.63. A lit bit behind Lee Smith.
53. Fred Lynn (n/r). Like Butler and Lemon, WAR raises him in my view.
54. Lave Cross % = .9709
55. Ron Guidry . Total = 218.85. Great peak. I don’t know why the peak pitching voters aren’t giving him any support. I’d take him, on peak, over either Bucky Walters or Lefty Gomez. I’m inclined to move him up, but more study is needed.
56. Jim McCormick (n/r)
57. Hugh Duffy % = .9686
58. Ben Taylor % = .9667
59. George Foster (n/r). Total = 216.65. A better peak than Dave Parker.
60. Dick Bartell % = .9653
61. George Van Haltren % = .9538
62. Larry Doyle % = .9614
63. Bobby Veach % = .9609
64. Buzz Arlett % = .9602
65. Fred Dunlap (n/r) % = .9586 Sole position player from the 1880s in my top 70.
66. Vern Stephens (n/r). Total = 215.14
67. Jack Clark. Total = 214.98
68. Leroy Matlock % = .9544
69. Tommy Bond % = .9511
70. Jim Rice (n/r). Total = 213.05
71. Cy Seymour (47). Total = 212.11
72. Mickey Welch (n/r). 300 wins brings him back onto the radar. I’m not convinced we yet have a good measurement of pitching value for the 1880s. Welch, McCormick, and Mullane all might be worthy, but then again, they might not.
   158. Chris Cobb Posted: August 20, 2007 at 09:41 PM (#2492744)
Returning top 10 not on my ballot:

Seven of the returning top ten are not on my ballot, though several are close. Redding is not the starting pitcher most deserving of support, nor are Johnson, Puckett, or Perez the most deserving hitters, though they would not be bad choices. Bresnahan is clearly the best at his position for his era, which gives him a reasonable case, but he just didn’t play enough, even adjusted for the standards of his time. Browning and Duffy would be mistakes. In general, I think the electorate is undervaluing long-career, high-defense infielders who lack the gaudy win share seasonal totals that win the admiration of peak voters. But win shares seriously undervalues these players because (1) its batting replacement level is WAY too low, so players get too much “showing up credit,” which is easier for outfielders to accrue than infielders and (2) its range of fielding values is too compressed, so that excellent fielding is undervalued. This infielder group is most disadvantaged by this mistake, so my ballot is filling up with players of this type, as I wait for a seismic shift in the electorate. More detailed comments on the returning top 10 left off my ballot follow.

Pete Browning. % = .8920. My review of his case this year has not convinced me that he is worthy of election, but I see how voters who have different views of merit have reasons to rank him highly. Uncertainties about what created value in the 1880s game make virtually any position arguable, though many voters are placing too little weight on the evidence of weak league quality. Not that it matters, but in researching Browning I learned that he was once picked off of first by the pitcher – unassisted! I can’t imagine that a detailed accounting of his baserunning would help his case . . .

Roger Bresnahan. See #41 above

Bob Johnson. See #23 above. I’m actually rather pleased to see Johnson in the returning top 10. He was unfairly neglected for many years after he first became eligible, and I was among those who didn’t give him as much support as he merited. I’m not advocating his election, but I don’t see him as a bad choice. If I had a pHOM, which I might get around to creating once we are caught up to the present, I would guess that Johnson would have a good shot at entry during a backlog year between 2007 and 2012.

Dick Redding. See #27 above.

Tony Perez. See #39 above.

Hugh Duffy. % = .9686. He looks a lot like Cy Seymour to me, and Cy Seymour isn’t drawing so much HoM support. Ranks 57th at present.

Kirby Puckett. See #44 above. Has some decent arguments in his favor.


Other New Eligibles Meriting Comment:

Fernando Valenzuela. A cultural phenomenon! and a fine pitcher, but he doesn’t have a case for the HoM.

Players dropping out of listed rankings during system switch, given in order of their rankings last year.

12. Lance Parrish (11). Total = 210.83. Adjustment for higher positional replacement level in WAR drops Parrish considerably. He’s now below 95% of the in-out line, which is the standard for getting a listed ranking.
36. Willie Davis .9896
40. Johnny Evers % = .9779
41. Fielder Jones % = .9778
56. Vada Pinson .9599
57. Dave Parker .9593.
   159. OCF Posted: August 20, 2007 at 09:42 PM (#2492745)
With Butler and Wallach, we're now up to 104 candidates receiving votes, which is a new record. Is there still a Fregosi voter out there?
   160. KJOK Posted: August 20, 2007 at 09:52 PM (#2492749)
Using OWP w/playing time, Player Overall Wins Score, and defense (Win Shares/BP/Fielding Runs) for position players, applied to .500 baseline. Using Runs Saved Above Average, Player Overall WInsScore and Support Neutral Fibonacci Wins for Pitchers. For Position Players AND Pitchers, heavily weight comparison vs. contemporaries, and lightly look at WARP1 and Win Shares.

1. RYNE SANDBERG, 2B. 37 POW, 346 Win Shares, 115 WARP1, 259 RCAP & .566 OWP in 9,282 PA’s. Def: VERY GOOD. Clearly above the IN line.

2. EDDIE MURRY, 1B. 36 POW, 437 Win Shares, 126 WARP1, 267 RCAP & .628 OWP in 12,817 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Outstanding hitter for many seasons.

3. ROGER BRESNAHAN, C. 23 POW, 231 Win Shares, 75 WARP1, 282 RCAP & .651 OWP in 5,373 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. He’s no Berra, but was best Catcher from 1880s – 1915.

4. JOHN McGRAW, 3B. 20 POW, 78 WARP1, 459 RCAP & .727 OWP in 4,909 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Was CAREER ALL-TIME OBP% leader until Ruth qualifies in 1923, EVEN adjusting for League, and is STILL #3 behind Williams and Ruth. AND he played 3B, where offensive output was generally very low. Plus led his team to 3 consecutive championships. Oh, AND at least 2nd best 3B between 1875-1900!

5. FRANK CHANCE, 1B. 23 POW, 237 Win Shares, 72 WARP1, 308 RCAP & .720 OWP in 5,099 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Excellent hitter and good fielder back when 1st base was MUCH more important defensively. Top seasons better than Beckley’s best. Deadball era offensive stars continue to get no respect….

6. BOB JOHNSON, LF. 36 POW, 287 Win Shares, 102 WARP1, 319 RCAP & .651 OWP in 8,047 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Many many very very good seasons. Best OF candidate not elected.

7. REGGIE SMITH, CF/RF. 32 POW, 325 Win Shares, 99 WARP1, 281 RCAP & .653 OWP in 8,050 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Hit like a 1st baseman, yet could play multiple defensive positions well.

8. TONY MULLANE, P.30 POW, 399 Win Shares, 89 WARP1, 241 RSAA, 240 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 118 ERA+ in 4,531(!) innings. He could hit a little too. Had a very good career AND some really good individual seasons. AA discount keeps him from being a TOP 3 ballot player.

9. DAVE BANCROFT, SS. 36 POW, 269 Win Shares, 111 WARP1, 157 RCAP & .498 OWP in 8,244 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT. Similar to Bobby Wallace and Ozzie Smith – better hitter than Ozzie, and almost as great fielding - so surprised he’s not getting more votes.

10. BUS CLARKSON, SS/3B. Estimated 123 OPS+ over 8,478 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Hitting far exceeds guys like Marcelle, Dandridge, etc.

11. DICK REDDING, P. 183 MLE Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 114 MLE ERA+ in 3,556 innings. Was the 2nd best Negro League Pitcher in his era, behind only Williams.

12. JIM FREGOSI, SS. 26 POW, 76 WARP1, 203 RCAP & .565 OWP in 7,402 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Just needs a little more something – defense, or career length, etc. – but still historically underrated, and perhaps just as good as Dobie Moore and better than Concepcion.

13. NORM CASH, 1B. 31 POW, 315 Win Shares, 102 WARP1, 295 RCAP & .671 OWP in 7,910 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Obviously underrated player who just needs more in-season PT to make a high ballot slot.

14. KIRBY PUCKETT, CF. 24 POW, 281 Win Shares, 81 WARP1, 209 RCAP & .602 OWP in 12,358 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Needs a little more value to be any higher.

15. JACK CLARK, RF. 30 POW, 316 Win Shares, 90 WARP1, 257 RCAP & .654 OWP in 8,225 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Close to Norm Cash.

LEFT OFF THE BALLOT:

NEWBIES OF NOTE:

BRETT BUTLER, CF. 16 POW, 295 Win Shares, 99 WARP1, 174 RCAP & .578 OWP in 9,545 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Just slightly below Dawson, who doesn’t make my ballot.

LEE SMITH, P.22 POW, 198 Win Shares, 80 WARP1, 143 RSAA, and 132 ERA+ in 1,289 innings. Relievers have to be REALLY outstanding to make my ballot, and Smith doesn’t quite get there, as he rates below John Franco and Trevor Hoffman among “long career” relievers.

RETURNEES:

PETE BROWNING, CF/LF. 28 POW, 95 WARP1, 478 RCAP & .745 OWP in 5,315 PAs. Def: POOR. Baseball’s premier hitter in the 1880’s. Much better hitter than any eligible outfielder, but only around 6th best CF in 30 year period.

CHARLIE JONES, LF. 19 POW, 71 WARP1, 245 RCAP & .697 OWP in 3,958 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Not a lot of PAs due to short schedules and suspension, but lots of offensive production.

ANDRE DAWSON, CF/RF. 18 POW, 340 Win Shares, 108 WARP1, 140 RCAP & .564 OWP in 10,769 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Highly overrated as a hitter, and nothing special in the field, The poster boy for the problems of Win Shares and WARP, as he ‘longevitied’ himself into high totals in those measures.

TONY PEREZ, 1B/3B. 10 POW, 349 Win Shares, 113 WARP1, 146 RCAP & .582 OWP in 10,861 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. I don’t see the love – had a few years at 3B that were not quite Rosen-esque, then became Beckley-lite. Perhaps most over-rated player ever.

HUGH DUFFY, CF/LF. 5 POW, 95 WARP1, 154 RCAP & .623 OWP in 7,838 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Just not in the elite OF class offensively, and fielding runs doesn’t even like his defense (-31).

TOMMY LEACH, CF/3B. .552 OWP, 121 RCAP, 9,051 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT – 3B, VERY GOOD – CF. Just slightly below Collins defensively, and he played longer. Basically did everything well, but doesn’t have the one outstanding area to get noticed.

BUCKY WALTERS, P.25 POW, 89 WARP1, 161 RSAA, 166 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 115 ERA+ in 3,104 innings. Hitting helps him, but doesn’t quite stack up to other pitchers.

GAVVY CRAVATH, RF. 18 POW, 202 Win Shares, 59 WARP1, 238 RCAP & .709 OWP in 4,644 PA’s. Def: FAIR. McGraw provided better offense in more MLB PA’s at a tougher position.


ALEJANDRO OMS, CF/RF. Estimated 126 OPS+ over 5,152 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Comp is possibly Eric Davis. That won’t cut it in this crowd.

GEORGE VAN HALTREN, CF. 12 POW, 118 WARP1, 167 RCAP & .620 OWP in 8,992 PAs. Def: FAIR. He wasn’t that far above position offensively, and wasn’t that good defensively.
   161. OCF Posted: August 20, 2007 at 09:56 PM (#2492756)
Ah, that's who the Fregosi voter is. 105.
   162. Jim Sp Posted: August 20, 2007 at 10:26 PM (#2492791)
Wish I had more time to incorporate Joe D's and Dan R's data. This will have to do for now.

1) SandbergI’ll take the fielder over the hitter,
2) Eddie Murraybut Sandberg and Murray are pretty close.
3) John McGraw--Ultra-dominant player when healthy.
4) Bob Johnson-- WinShares says C fielder, warp thinks he’s considerably better than that. Very high assist totals from LF. Played CF for a terrible 1938 A’s team, also a little bit of 2B and 3B. On the whole I think the record indicates that he was actually a good defensive player. I also suspect that his WinShares suffer from playing on some horrible teams. May have struggled trying to get a break, tough to grab playing time on the great A’s teams earlier in his career. Never did anything but mash despite late ML start at age 27. 1934-1942 is a HoM worth prime in my view. PHoM in 1970.
5) Nettles--Great fielder with quite a bit of pop in his bat. Best Warp3: 10.7, 10.2, 8.9, 8.4, 8.2. PHoM 1995.
6) Rizzuto--The man lost his age 25, 26, and 27 seasons to the war, right after a very good season in 1942. One of the best fielding shortstops of all time. A 93 career OPS+ is strong for a grade A shortstop, not weak. Great peak season in 1950 (11.4 warp3). PHoM 1977.
7) Concepcion--Grade A+ shortstop and could hit some too. Weak hitting at the beginning and end, but above average during prime 1973-1982. Warp3 prime: 10.7, 10.2, 10.2, 9.7, 8.8, 8.7, 8.3, 8.0. Note that Win Shares is conservative in assigning fielding credit to the great fielders. PHoM 1994.
8) BancroftConvinced now that the BP warp discount is excessive.
9) Charley Jones--A masher whose prime was destroyed by the blacklist.
10) Reuschel--Joe D is on to something here.
11) Stephens-- PHoM in 1961. Looks underrated to me. Best years by Warp3 10.2, 10.1, 8.9, 8.5, 8.0, 7.8. Another player short on career length, but I like the prime.
12) Buddy Bell--The number of other 3b candidates should not be held against him. Compare him to the average starting 3b of the era and clearly he was a superior player. Compare Bell’s 108 OPS+ to say Ray Knight (99), Phil Garner (99), Enos Cabell (93)—none of whom were good fielders at 3rd. It’s a tough position. Apparently I’m doomed to end this exercise with 10 third baseman on my ballot.
13) Bobby Bonds--PHoM 1986. 1969 -75, 77 are all very good to MVP candidate seasons. Career 130 OPS+ plus good speed, a good enough fielder to play some CF. Is only lacking longevity.
14) Cey--I’ll take the plunge on Cey. I like Elliott, so indeed Cey shows up on my ballot. Power, walks, and defense at 3rd…wish the Mets didn’t spend 40 years looking for that. He didn’t look like a ballplayer but he was a good one. Best Warp3 10.5, 9.6, 9.2, 9.1, 9.0, 8.9. Interesting that Hack and Groh are in while Elliott and Cey are out, I have them in the same bunch. PHoM 1997.
15) Elliott--PHoM in 1960. The hitting for a 3B in his era is outstanding. Best years by warp3: 10.9, 9.4, 9.2, 8.7, 7.7, 7.3, 7.0. Strong prime trumps an early decline in my view.

Browning--used to be a detractor, now not so sure. Age 29 for last good season is hard to overcome though. Was out of top 100, now #20.

Bresnahan--#16

Dawson--#17

Redding #22

Perez #19
   163. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: August 20, 2007 at 11:05 PM (#2492810)
Someone voted for Tim Wallach? I'm an Expos fan, but really?

I'll have mine up shortly.
   164. Tiboreau Posted: August 20, 2007 at 11:30 PM (#2492844)
1. Eddie Murray
2. Ryne Sandberg
3. Luke Easter—We know that he had a long career (records of play with top Negro League teams in late ‘30s, early ‘40s and continued to play in the minors until the early ‘60s). We know he had the potential for big play (1948 and, when healthy, ’52, ’56 and ’58). What we don’t know is how well he would have played in the first half of his career, during his twenties. Yet, as we dig deeper into the backlog I find myself more willing to elect a player with a good career who showed the potential for greatness than one with a long career of merely above average play or one with short period of definite greatness during an abbreviated career.
4. Alejandro Oms—The Cuban Enos Slaughter: only one season over 30 WS, but 8 over 25; considering the effects of regression, had a nice peak as well as a real good career, including three statistically undocumented seasons in the Cuban Sugar Leagues before his recorded explosion in performance at age 26.
5. Dizzy Dean—For five years he was among the greatest pitchers of all-time. Sadly, his career essentially comprises of those five years. The greatest peak among eligible pitching candidates.
6. Al Rosen—Flip's candidacy is similar to Dean's: five excellent seasons without much else, his career cut short by Keltner at the front end and back injuries at opposite end.
7. Leroy Matlock—Had a great peak, including 26 straight wins from ’34 to ’36. In fact, according to the MLEs, Matlock’s peak (and career) was better than Dean’s. However, the difficulties of estimating season-by-season value of Negro League pitchers leads me to place Matlock a bit below Dizzy.
8. John McGraw—Two great seasons surrounded by several more excellent yet injury-riddled years while playing a physically demanding (and underrepresented) position in a physically demanding era.
9. Elston Howard—After pre-MLB credit, a similar player to Roger Bresnahan; his peak is slightly better, career slightly shorter. Howard jumps ahead Bresnahan, however, due to the fact that he was entirely a catcher during his peak, while Bresnahan spent significant time in the outfield during his best years.
10. Dale Murphy—Wally Berger with a few career padding years thrown in. Since the ‘80s appear to be much more difficult to dominate Mr. Clean slips in a bit higher than his 1930s counterpart.
11. Urban Shocker—Jumped back on my radar screen due to Joe Dimino’s pitcher numbers. Like the rest, short career but packed in quality seasons for the majority of that time. Similar to Dave Stieb, just a little less career value.
12. Wally Berger—Both Win Shares and WARP agree on the excellence of his peak, which was not quite Keller\Kiner level but close behind. About where I’d have the 1st Earl of Snohomish without minor league credit.
13. Roger Bresnahan—See Elston Howard.
14. Bobby Bonds—Yes, another nice peak, shorter career candidate on my ballot; his peak value a little lower, his career value a little higher than the others. I view him similarly to Jimmy Wynn.
15. Bucky Walters—When at his best he was not only excellent pitcher but an inning eater as well. More career value than Wes Ferrell but less peak value, especially considering the decreased competition during the war, and the excellent defense behind him during his peak.

Required Disclosures:
Dick Redding—While he had a nice peak, in context it loses its impressiveness, and Cannon Ball Dick played at that level in too few years spread among too many poor seasons in a long career to be on my ballot.
Tony Perez—Excellent career value puts him in the consideration set. Decent peak value makes him a ballot contender. A few more years at third would’ve put him on my ballot, but as is he just falls short.
Andre Dawson—Another excellent career candidate with a decent peak; the latter is just not enough, considering his position, to make my ballot.
Bob Johnson—He did have a nice prime and he does deserve a couple years credit for his play in the PCL, but according to both WS and WARP Indian Bob has peak is just not enough to make up for a short career.
Pete Browning—The earliest version of the all-hit, no field candidates eligible, Browning also benefited from the easier competition of a weaker league during baseball’s teething years. After Brent’s AA translations I feel more comfortable with my placement of the Gladiator.
Charley Jones—Like Browning, Jones's numbers benefit from an easier era to dominate. With credit for his time on baseball's blackballed list, I have him ahead of the Gladiator, a weaker hitter but a more balanced ballplayer. Of course, the case for credit during his time outside the game is a bit murkier than it is with those who more typically receive such credit.
   165. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: August 20, 2007 at 11:32 PM (#2492848)
My ballot:

Since some people asked us to include what we consider . . . I try to look at it all. I'm a career voter mostly - not because I have any bias towards it, but just because the numbers (and every study I've ever seen) tell me that peaks are overrated and 5+5 is only about 10-15% less valuable than 10+0.

I give full war credit, and I think it's a major mistake not to when comparing players across eras. My biggest regret on this project is that we didn't require all voters to give war credit like we did with Negro League credit. I see no difference, both were a circumstance of the player's birthday that was beyond his control. I also follow similar philosophy on strikes. I think it's a cop out to say we don't know so it's a zero. If a guy was a 25 WS a year player before and after the war, a zero is a much bigger mistake than giving him three 25s. As far as injury you just credit a guy based on his playing time before and after the war. There's no reason to assume he would have been any more (or less) injury prone during those years.

I'll give minor league credit for players trapped - once they've had a 'here I am, let me play!' season.

Of late I've been much more hands on in rating the pitchers than the position players. I'm very confident in my pitcher rankings. My position player rankings I'm less confident in, but there are only so many hours in the day, and because of that you'll see more position players moving around from week to week than pitchers.

1. Eddie Murray 1B (n/e) - Great player. Mister consistency

2. Ryne Sandberg 2B (n/e) - Sure Wrigley overstates the stats some, but he's one of the 10-12 best 2B ever.

3. Rick Reuschel SP (3) - This ranking surprises me a great deal. It's one thing to 'discover' an Ezra Sutton (I mean as a group, not that I discovered him first or anything) who played 130 years ago. But Rick Reuschel was there, right before my very eyes. He pitched in the World Series for my favorite team when I was turning 9 years old. And I never had a clue he was this good.

My Pennants Added system, which account for fielding support, parks, bullpen support, etc.; shows him as the #30 pitcher eligible, right behind Dazzy Vance, Ed Walsh and Amos Rusie, and ahead of Jim Bunning, Sandy Koufax and Juan Marichal.

He isn't peakless either. His 1977 was every bit as valuable as Bunning's 1966. Bunning definitely has him beat in years 2-5, but Reuschel makes it up with more quality in the back end. I get them essentially equal, Reuschel was a little better inning for inning, Bunning had a higher peak, but in the end they even out. I have Reuschel with a 115 DRA+ over 3745 tIP, Bunning was 113 over 3739 tIP. This is where I would have ranked Bunning, who sailed into the Hall of Merit, I have no issue putting Reuschel here.

Even when I take my numbers, but filter them through a Bill James-type NHBA scoring system (that heavily focuses on peak), Reuschel still comes out as the #46 starter eligible, in a group with guys like Jim Palmer, Noodles Hahn, Eddie Rommel, Tex Hughson, Clark Griffith and Whitey Ford. Hahn, Rommel and Hughson all had very nice peaks.

Using a JAWS scoring system, he comes out as the #35 starter, in a group with Wes Ferrell, Jack Quinn, Palmer, Stan Coveleski, Red Faber and Urban Shocker.

I am saying that Reuschel was every bit as good as the Jims, Palmer and Bunning. The only difference between Palmer and Reuschel is park and defense. Reuschel's 1977 was better than any season Palmer had. Palmer, like Bunning was better than Reuschel in the 2-5 best seasons, but by less than a win a year, and over the course of their careers, Reuschel was better, 115 DRA+ to Palmer's 113 (in a similar number of innings, Palmer had 3781 tIP. He had the one great year, and was very good from 1973-81 and 1985, 1987-89. That's a record that not a lot of pitchers can match.

4. Jack Quinn SP (4) - I'm giving him credit for 1916-18 where he was pitching (quite well) in the PCL after the Federal League went belly-up. He gets a big leverage bonus for his nearly 800 IP of relief work at a LI of 1.26. Without any PCL credit I still have him between Bridges and Grimes.

5. Tommy John SP (5) - Tons of career value. I would probably be sick to my stomach if Jim Kaat (who did very well in the Veteran's Committee balloting this year) got in and John did not. On the surface (career W-L) they appear similar, but when you adjust for everything, they aren't close. I have John as similar to, but better than Burleigh Grimes - about 800 more translated IP, at a 106 rate instead of a 104 rate. That's more than enough to offset Grimes peak edge. I get John somewhere between Eppa Rixey/Red Faber and Grimes on the continuum. He's over the in/out line for me. I also give no extra credit for his poineering the surgery - someone had to be first.

6. Graig Nettles (17) - Moves up mostly based on how he does with Dan R's system. Would be higher, but the AL was weak relative to the NL throughout his career and that's not accounted for. Vacuum cleaner at 3B, one HR title, another runner-up. He was a better hitter than Brooksy, almost his equal with the glove. Almost as long of a career, and while he wasn't as good as Robinson, Brooks had plenty of room to spare. I had him too high, but still think he belongs.

7. Urban Shocker SP (6) - Vaulted in 1981, with 1918 war credit (he was having a great year), and an adjustment for the AL being much better than the NL during his time. He was a great pitcher, peak guys should really look closer at him. He'd be a no brainer without his illness, which should not impact a peak vote.

8. Phil Rizzuto SS (28) - Lost 3 prime years to WWII. Great defense, and a huge year in 1950 also. He looks even better than I realized with Dan's system and I'm moving him up according. His death has nothing to do with this, other than that I looked him over again, and I liked what I saw. RIP Scooter.

9. Tommy Bridges SP (7) - Unspectacular peak (although he would have won the 1936 AL Cy Young Award if it had been invented), but a lot of career value. War credit helps nudge him above Trout and Leonard. He could obviously still pitch when he left for the war, and was still good when he returned for a short time. I give him 2 years of credit at his 1941-43 level.

10. Gavy Cravath RF (8) - Either he was a freak of nature, or there's a lot missing. I vote for the latter. Check out his thread for deeper discussion of the specifics, including a great analysis from Gadfly. He's the kind of guy we were hoping to catch when we started this project.

11. Dave Concepcion SS (13) - Better than I realized, and was really hurt by the 1981 strike, which occurred during his best season (and a season where the Reds had the best record in baseball, but missed the playoffs). Still no Trammell or Ozzie, but a very good player indeed. We could do worse than induct him.

12. Bert Campaneris (16) - Also moves up this week. .470 OWP, in an era where the average SS was at .372. Long (9625 PA) career as well, and a good fielder (62 FRAA). System says to rank him ahead of Concepcion pretty clearly, but I haven't been able to bring myself to do it just yet.

13. Thurman Munson C (10) - Better than I realized - just a hair behind Freehan. Better career D, better career O, but Freehan played more and had the higher peak. Very, very close.

14. Andre Dawson CF/RF (14) - See his thread for more detailed comments. Essentially I think there's enough of a combination of peak/career (especially once full credit is given for 1981) to push him onto the ballot. I'm shocked to realize that Randolph was the better player, as both were among my handful of favorite players growing up.

15. Tommy Leach 3B/CF (--) - I was a big fan of his awhile back, then he faded. He's back now, in no small part because of Dan R's work.
   166. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: August 20, 2007 at 11:37 PM (#2492854)
Leaving the honorable mentions off since I'm reworking the ballot.

Mandatory comments:

Pete Browning - would be by far our biggest mistake. Hack Wilson would be an equivalent electee. Please don't do this. Stieb or Charley Jones would be light years better as choices.

Charley Jones - A superstar of the early NL/AA. He's #23 for me right now, I'd have no problem with his election. I give full credit for his contract debacle / blacklisting, which I consider a product of his timeframe, and not something that would hinder any modern player. I still think he was great, but I think I'd been giving him a little too much credit for his AA seasons.

Roger Bresnahan - Currently #30 for me. Great hitter / catcher = tough combination to overlook.

Bob Johnson - He's in the mix - but slides down when you deflate his numbers from WWII.

Dick Redding - he was good, but I think we are overrating him. I can't see how he's better than Grimes.

Tony Perez - Not mandatory this time, but he'll be back soon, so I'll leave the comment. In my top 50, but I don't see how anyone can vote for him over Ben Taylor.

Hugh Duffy - I don't really see it. He had one big year, one fairly big year, and was pretty good, but it's only an 11 year career (as a regular), and I just don't see what makes him stand out. I've always like Ryan and Van Haltren better.

Newbies:

Lee Smith is in the 30s for me. He's got a very nice career argument, much better than I realized, but he's the in/out line for reliever, and I'm drawing it with him out.

Fernando was much more than just Fernandomania. A workhorse from 1981-87 and pitched pretty well too. 123 DRA+ over 2007 tIP through 1987. Addie Joss's entire career is 125 over 1866, for some perspective.
   167. OCF Posted: August 20, 2007 at 11:50 PM (#2492871)
Easter, Berger, and Campaneris make 108.
   168. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: August 20, 2007 at 11:58 PM (#2492885)
No lead-in. Murray, Sandberg, and (gulp) Norm Cash make my PHoM.

1. Eddie Murray (new) A very solid player for a long time – perhaps not an amazing peak, but a very solid one. Makes my PHoM this year.

2. Bus Clarkson (3) Parallels Elliot’s career, but with war credit he comes out ahead, and he presumably had more defensive value. The new MLE’s didn’t boost him that much, but it was enough to move him to the upper reaches of my ballot. (Quick comparison to Sandberg – WS 344 to 346 in 800 fewer PA, OPS+ 123 to 114, 3B/SS to 2B. Even deflating the MLEs a bit, that looks pretty close to me.) Made my PHoM in 1997.

3. Ryne Sandberg (new) I remember being really shocked when he didn’t get in the HoF on the first ballot, although looking at him now, he probably wasn’t quite as good as his reputation, but still clearly HoMable. Makes my PHoM this year.

4. Dick Redding (6) Seems to have a pretty good peak, and also has somewhat of a career argument. I still tend to think he’s close enough to Mendez that they both should be in or out. Made my PHoM in 1973.

5. Bob Johnson (7) I'm impressed by his consistency, he was an above-average player every year for 13 seasons, plus he got started very late in the bigs, so I will give him at least 1 year of minor league credit. The more I look at him compared to the other corner OF candidates, the more impressed I am, and it appears the era considerations have been a little overblown. Made my PHoM in 1992.

6. Bill Monroe (5) NOT surprised to see I was his Best Friend. The new Cuban translations boost him a slight bit, as we have more evidence for his quality. A good player at an important defensive position, with a great reputation for his fielding. People like to promote the 1890s as underrepresented, but that doesn't mean the 00s and 10s are overrepresented. Made my PHoM in 1939.

7. George Van Haltren (4) A very good player for a long time, even if he was never truly great. I don't reject all peak arguments, but I'll take his consistency over Duffy's big years (although taking another look at that this year knocked him down a few spots). Made my PHoM in 1972.

8. Reggie Smith (9) For now, I think he’s the best of the 70’s OF glut. Very similar to Medwick/Johnson, but the lack of a peak holds him back. Win Shares really likes him. Not sure how I feel about those clutch numbers. WARP doesn’t have that great an opinion of his fielding, all things considered. Made my PHoM in 1995.

9. Gavvy Cravath (8) With the basic 07, 09-11 additions, this is where I have him. A better peak than Johnson, but less consistent. WARP isn't as fond of him as WS, but he compares well to Kiner & Keller. Made my PHoM in 1987.

10. Tommy Leach (10) Dropped from the top of may ballot because I had to admit that Robinson was a better 3B candidate, and I wasn’t all that crazy about his argument either. I may have been overrating 3Bmen in general. Excellent fielder at important positions, OK hitter. One of the most complete players on the ballot. Made my PHoM in 1940.

11. Phil Rizzuto (11) He does come out as comparable to Sewell in total value, but it’s very defense-heavy, and even if it’s unfair, I’m less certain about that. Might deserve Minor League credit for 1940 (I’m not counting it at the moment.) Made my PHoM in 1997.

12. Norm Cash (13) A lot of good years, but I really think he's the Beckley of the 60s, with a shorter career (although that's not really much of a criticism). He really does look pretty similar to Hernandez, and for some reason has 6 Win Shares Gold Gloves to Keith's 1. Makes my PHoM this year.

13. Bobby Bonds (14) A very strong prime candidate, but neither his peak nor career totals really stand out.

14. Alejandro Oms (15) A reasonable candidate, but doesn’t stand out for me in any particular manner.

15. Elston Howard (16) If you give him fair credit for being stuck in the Negro Leagues and behind Yogi, he looks like the best catcher candidate on the ballot to me. But I wonder if his early 60s-peak just would have happened 5 years earlier under other circumstances.

16. Luis Tiant (17) Like I said, he is really close to Stieb. I think Stieb gets a little more credit because he was better at his best.
17. Andre Dawson (18) You have to make allowances for a lot of things, but I do think he’s a better career candidate than Staub or Perez. But for a corner OF, he falls just a bit short in my opinion.
(17A Max Carey, 17B Rube Foster)
18. Ben Taylor (20) Another solid candidate who might have been overlooked.
19. Ron Cey (19) Better than I expected, extremely consistent. Clearly looks ahead of Bando and Nettles to me - better hitter than Nettles, better fielder than Bando, better peak than both of them. He's wasn't any worse than Evans, but didn't last as long. Major worry is overcrowding of 3B in this era.
20. Charley Jones (21) Even with the missed time credit, there's just not quite enough to make the ballot. Looking back at Kelly’s Keltner made me realize I had been underrating him slightly.
(21A Nellie Fox, 21B Sam Thompson)
21. Dizzy Dean (22) Is his peak case really that much weaker than Keller and Kiner? I'm wondering. And with Stieb being a peak/prime guy, is he that much better than Dizzy?
22. Tony Perez (23) He does have a good peak, but his late-70s years aren't much above average. And for a mostly 1B guy, even his peak OPS+s aren’t impressive.
23. Vern Stephens (24) Close to Rizzuto, but with the wartime discount and the sudden dropoff after 1950, not quite there.
24. Bob Elliott (25) He’d been winning the comparison with Cey the past few years, but not this time. They’re really pretty similar, and when you discount for wartime play, he’s behind.
(24A Richie Ashburn, 24B Ralph Kiner)
25. Orlando Cepeda (27) A little ways behind the other 1Bmen. They all have a stronger argument for one angle or another. He did get his career off to a great start, though.
26. Roger Bresnahan (29) I understand his situation, but he doesn't even have 1000 games caught. A significantly better hitter than Howard, but I think if you give Elston fair credit, his career value wins out.
27. Don Newcombe (28) Basically the only pitcher candidate left from the 50s, and he has an interesting argument.
28. Rusty Staub (27) A career candidate with some peak value, but also picked up WS by just hanging around. Could rank higher. Definitely behind Perez.
(28A Hughie Jennings, 28B George Sisler, 28C Rollie Fingers)
29. Kirby Puckett (30) Yes, some very good years, but his peak doesn't match Murphy's. I can't have him too far ahead of Dale.
30. Ken Singleton (37) Chris’s study gives him a boost, but don’t forget he has a terrible baserunning rep.

31. Bucky Walters
32. Dave Bancroft
33. Pete Browning (33) An outstanding hitter, but a truly awful fielder, and played most of his career in the weaker league. I wouldn't be upset if he got in, but I don't quite see it.
34. Sal Bando
35. Jack Clark
36. Dale Murphy
37. Tony Lazzeri
38. Lou Brock
39. Tommy Bridges
40. Frank Howard

51. Hugh Duffy. Now, see if I hadn’t taken another look at his Win Shares peak (which WARP doesn’t see as that special), he’d be all the way down in the 70s with Mike Griffin. But I just don’t see him as a candidate at all at this point. His peak advantage simply isn’t as big as Van Haltren’s career advantage.
   169. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 21, 2007 at 12:00 AM (#2492888)
The election is now over. Results will be posted at 10.

Close one, Devin. ;-)
   170. sunnyday2 Posted: August 21, 2007 at 12:10 AM (#2492900)
And of course there is always that story that Pete Browning should have been the winner in 2001 as well. Is this the end of Pistol Pete?

Who didn't vote, Max?
   171. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: August 21, 2007 at 12:10 AM (#2492901)
I'd take any of those guys and about 50 others over Browning Max . . .

:-)
   172. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: August 21, 2007 at 12:13 AM (#2492905)
We can't release their names until we let them out of the trunk we Browning non-voters locked them in sunnyday. We've told the police the location now that the election has passed and we have the ransom money.
   173. Max Parkinson Posted: August 21, 2007 at 12:16 AM (#2492912)
Joe,

And you can tell that I feel the opposite way. This is what happens when 60-odd people are arguing over who is the 240-250th best baseball player of all time (Which we can all agree is what we've gotten to by now).
   174. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: August 21, 2007 at 12:20 AM (#2492915)
It really shouldn't happen again, John. For the elections left, I'll either be too busy at work to wait until Monday, or too not-busy to have to wait so long to get it done. Also, I shouldn't be on a plane on Sunday nights anymore.

And while I don't expect anything when somebody's voting for Tim Wallach, in theory the 8 PM-10 PM break is to allow people to challenge late ballots, and if anybody wants to question my ranking of Clarkson ahead of Sandberg, I'm going to be on a train home - my basic response is in the Clarkson comment.
   175. AJMcCringleberry Posted: August 21, 2007 at 12:33 AM (#2492924)
Bob Johnson-- WinShares says C fielder, warp thinks he’s considerably better than that.

Don't forget that win shares rating is based on all OFers. James says corner OFers get about 2.00 WS/1000 innings, Johnson got 2.31. So WS probably likes him as much as WARP does.
   176. AJMcCringleberry Posted: August 21, 2007 at 12:35 AM (#2492928)
Why Tim Wallach instead of half a dozen other third basemen?
   177. jimd Posted: August 21, 2007 at 12:36 AM (#2492931)
All thanks to two regular voters not participating this year

Who am I missing here?

I have a count of 53 ballots compared to 49 last year.

We have 4 returning prodigals: sunnyday2, Brent, Max Parkinson, and Tiboreau.

One first-time voter: Welcome Kenn!

And one missing from last year: Mark Shirk.

Michael Bass last voted in 1999 (leaving me as Dunlap's best friend).
   178. OCF Posted: August 21, 2007 at 12:42 AM (#2492936)
That's right jimd. Michael Bass last voted in 1999, Jeff M. and Trevor P. in 1996, so just one missing from last year. And Kenn came within one ordinal of nailing the consensus median.
   179. Paul Wendt Posted: August 21, 2007 at 12:44 AM (#2492938)
Chris Cobb on Browning
Not that it matters, but in researching Browning I learned that he was once picked off of first by the pitcher – unassisted! I can’t imagine that a detailed accounting of his baserunning would help his case . . .

Did he tweak a ligament, tendon, or muscle?
fall down?

--
Joe Dimino
7. Urban Shocker SP (6) - Vaulted in 1981, with 1918 war credit (he was having a great year), and an adjustment for the AL being much better than the NL during his time.

Joe recently called the NL "much better" than the AL in 1980s --iirc, maybe regarding Valenzuela.
I wonder then, and wonder now, how commonly in mlb history is one league "much better" than the other? For example, does that pertain to NL 1901 or to multiple seasons beginning 1901. To NL 1882-84 and 90-91 or to all ten seasons of the AA?
When in mlb history does league significantly float or sink someone who played 15 seasons in one league or the other? --stepping about ten years at a time Magee, Hornsby, Waner . . .
   180. sunnyday2 Posted: August 21, 2007 at 12:48 AM (#2492945)
Was Mark Shirk a FOPB? If so, it could have been the difference, at least I had it *that* close.
   181. OCF Posted: August 21, 2007 at 12:55 AM (#2492950)
The unassisted pickoff could happen to anyone. As I see the scenario, the runner tries to anticipate the delivery and makes a break for second - but it's too early, and the pitcher hasn't committed to the plate. The pitcher steps off the rubber, and you're instantly in a rundown situation. The correct move is for the pitcher to run straight at the runner to force him to commit - and if he waits a fraction too long to move, he'll be tagged. If that happens now, is it scored as a pickoff or as a CS?
   182. jimd Posted: August 21, 2007 at 01:00 AM (#2492953)
Bob Johnson-- WinShares says C fielder, warp thinks he’s considerably better than that.

Don't forget that win shares rating is based on all OFers. James says corner OFers get about 2.00 WS/1000 innings, Johnson got 2.31. So WS probably likes him as much as WARP does.


Win Shares does a poor job of separating individuals from the overall team defense. This is particularly true of OF defense, where it uses a circular definition to credit the OF for good overall team defense, based on the following principle (I quote from p.65) "the defensive outfield on a good team is always good because we all know that you can't win without a good defensive outfield". Well, as implemented in the WS system, this has the following corollary: "The defensive outfield on a bad team is always bad because we all know that you can't lose without a bad defensive outfield". And we all know Bob Johnson played for many bad teams, and therefore takes a disproportionate share of the blame for that.

(See the Bresnahan thread for more discussion of this with respect to Roger and his contemporary Roy Thomas.)
   183. jimd Posted: August 21, 2007 at 01:24 AM (#2492966)
Mark's last ballot:

(Ozzie) (Alan) REDDING Duffy Walters
(Stieb) Elston BROWNING Cravath Dean
Mattingly Oms Willis BRESNAHAN Doyle
[VanHaltren Shocker McGraw CJones Newcombe]
   184. Paul Wendt Posted: August 21, 2007 at 01:49 AM (#2492986)
JoeD
Pete Browning - would be by far our biggest mistake. Hack Wilson would be an equivalent electee. Please don't do this. Stieb or Charley Jones would be light years better as choices.

No, no, not Stieb.
   185. Rick A. Posted: August 21, 2007 at 01:56 AM (#2492996)
Man, my ballots going to look wierd next year.(If who I think won, did win)
   186. Chris Cobb Posted: August 21, 2007 at 01:59 AM (#2493001)
From the SABR bio project website's Browning bio:

"Browning's 1886 season also included hitting for the cycle for the first time against the New York Metropolitans on August 8, and being the victim of an unassisted pickoff play by Dave Foutz. Today, it remains the only documented case of a hurler picking off a runner unassisted without the benefit of a rundown."
   187. Guapo Posted: August 21, 2007 at 02:11 AM (#2493009)
From baseballibrary.com's chronology: May 14, 1993:


At San Diego in the top of the 8th‚ Matt Williams is at bat with runners on 1B and 3B. Padres pitcher Greg Harris than picks off Barry Bonds at 1B unassisted for the 2nd out.


(Link)

I always wondered what happened there, but never found a description.
   188. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: August 21, 2007 at 02:18 AM (#2493012)
Hidden ball trick in reverse?
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