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Hall of Merit
— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best

Monday, September 03, 2007

2004 Ballot

Prominent new candidates: Paul Molitor, Dennis Eckersley, Dennis Martinez, Jimmy Key, Joe Carter, Kevin Mitchell, Cecil Fielder and Terry Pendleton.

Top-ten candidates: Pete Browning, Roger Bresnahan, Andre Dawson, Kirby Puckett, Bob Johnson, Tony Perez and Bucky Walters.

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 03, 2007 at 12:11 PM | 180 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   101. sunnyday2 Posted: September 07, 2007 at 08:58 PM (#2515641)
No but there were a lot of folks who thought he was an #######.
   102. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 07, 2007 at 09:22 PM (#2515664)
If something other than Pete Browning's accomplishments on the field of play is fair game for the ever-so-tiresome campaign against him, let's talk about Roger Bresnahan, shall we?


How about if, for just this week, we beat up on Browning some more and allow the Duke to be enshrined instead? :-)
   103. sunnyday2 Posted: September 07, 2007 at 10:35 PM (#2515705)
John, that would just be the default. No action needed.
   104. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 07, 2007 at 10:37 PM (#2515708)
John, that would just be the default. No action needed.


Ha! I know, Marc. :-D
   105. jimd Posted: September 07, 2007 at 11:47 PM (#2515790)
Ballot for 2004

Read previous ballots if you want more depth on my reasons for all but the latest eligibles.

I am a peak/prime/career voter. Prime tends to dominate the ballot as Career has had an easier time of it in HOM elections, and short Peaks don't get too far in my system. Important parts of my peak and prime assessment are both the quantity and quality of a player's "All-Star" selections. These are the seasons where the player is able to make a positive contribution to a typical "playoff contender" (top 25% of participating teams). I use both WARP and Win Shares, though I emphasize the former because of its demonstrated overall yearly positional balance throughout baseball history.

I am reexamining my ballot carefully annually as we go deep into the backlog.

1) B. WALTERS -- Best of the backlog. Prime 1939-44. Best player in 1939; candidate in 1940 by WS. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1939, 1941, 1944; WS adds 1940. Other star seasons include 1936 and 1942.

2) D. ECKERSLEY -- The top 5 on my ballot are all very close; I could reorder them randomly and not have a problem with the order. Prime 1975-79, 1987-92. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1979, (RP) in 1992. Other star seasons include 1975 and 1978 as SP, 1987 and 1990 as RP. Honorable Mention in 1982 and 1989.

3) P. MOLITOR -- My system sees Molitor as better than Puckett, but not by a heck of a lot. Prime 1979-94. Never a 1st-team MLB All-Star (sorry, no DH position). Other star seasons include 1979 (at 2B), 1982, 1983, 1985, 1988, 1989 (at 3B), and 1987, 1991, 1992, 1993, 1994 (at DH). HM in 1980, 1990, and 1996.

4) K. PUCKETT -- Made my PHOM last year. Prime 1985-1995. Best player candidate in 1988 and 1992 by WARP. 1st-team MLB All-Star (CF) in 1986 and 1988 by WS; 1992 by WARP. Other star seasons include 1987, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1994. HM in 1985, 1993, and 1995.

5) F. TANANA -- Makes my PHOM this year. More good seasons than Gossage. Poster-child for pitcher abuse. Still has the peak and also has the career. Prime 1974-77. Best player candidate in 1976 and 1977 by WARP. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1976; WARP adds 1975, 1977. Other star seasons include 1974, 1984. Honorable mention in 1987.

6) K. SINGLETON -- Better peak than Bonds; not quite as much prime as Wynn. Prime 1973-81. Best player candidate 1977, WS adds 1979. 1st-team MLB All-Star (RF) in 1975 and 1977. Other star seasons include 1973, 1978, 1979, 1980, 1981; also 1976 in LF.

7) D. CONCEPCION -- His best 7 seasons are very close to Ozzie's best 7, though Ozzie is clearly superior in peak, shoulder seasons, and career value. Prime 1974-82. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SS) in 1974; WARP adds 1976 and 1979; WS adds 1978 and 1981. Other star seasons include 1982. HM in 1975 and 1977.

8) L. TIANT -- Pitching candidate very close to the in/out line. Win Shares does not like him. Tended to alternate good years (even) and off years (odd). Prime 1966-1978. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1968, 1974; WS adds 1976. Other star seasons include 1972 and 1973. Honorable Mention in 1966 and 1978.

9) J. KAAT -- Belongs. 14 HOM "bats" were born 1893-1903 (Sisler, Heilmann, Ruth, Torriente, Charleston, Terry, Goslin, Suttles, Stearnes, Averill, Simmons, Waner, Bell, Gehrig); don't tell me that 10 pitchers born 1938-48 are too many.Prime 1961-1975. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1962; WS adds 1966. Other star seasons include 1974 and 1975. HM in 1961, 1964, 1967, 1971.

10) F. JONES -- Still an all-star player when he walked away. I still think he rates ahead of Ashburn, but it's close. Prime 1900-08. 1st-team MLB All-Star (CF) in 1908; WARP adds 1902 and 1907. Other star seasons include 1900, 1901, 1903, 1904, 1905, 1906.

11) F. DUNLAP -- Great two-way player; bypassed for some reason. Amibidextrous, too. Reportedly could catch and throw equally well with either hand. Useful in this era before modern fielding gloves forced a player to choose one hand for each. Prime 1880-86. Best Player candidate 1880-81 (WARP). 1st-team MLB All-Star (2B) in 1880, 1881; WARP adds 1882, 1883, and 1885. 1884 in the UA is hard to evaluate but may also be #1. Other star seasons include 1886.

12) D. DEAN -- High peak candidate. Prime 1932-36. Candidate for best player in MLB baseball, 1934. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) 1934, 1935, 1936; WARP adds 1932. Other star seasons include 1933.

13) B. BONDS -- Very nice prime; marginal on career. Those who go to extreme either way will miss him. Prime 1969-77. Best player candidate 1970 by WS. 1st-team MLB All-Star (RF) in 1970; WARP adds 1971 and 1973. Other star seasons include 1969, 1972, 1974, 1975, 1977, 1978. HM in 1979.

14) R. CEY -- Important component of the late 70's Dodgers. Prime 1973-1981. 1st-team MLB All-Star (3B) in 1978 by WARP. Other star seasons include 1974, 1975, 1976, 1979, 1980, and 1981. HM in 1973 and 1977.

15) B. MAZEROSKI -- Prime 1957-66. 1st-team MLB All-Star (2B) 1960 and 1964; WARP adds 1958. Other star seasons include 1962, 1963, 1966. HM in 1957, 1961, 1965.

16) T. PEREZ -- Better 3B than expected. Important component of the Reds prior to the arrival of Joe Morgan. Prime 1967-1975. Best player candidate 1970 by Win Shares. 1st-team MLB All-Star (3B) in 1970; WS adds 1973 at 1B. Other star seasons include 1967, 1968, 1969, 1971 (3B), and 1972 at 1B. HM in 1974, 1975, 1977 (1B).

17) D. REDDING -- Long career candidate. Fell off due to influx of new candidates.

18) D. BANCROFT -- Boost due to DanR's replacement level work. Prime 1916-22. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SS) 1920 and 1921; WS adds 1922. Other star seasons include 1916, 1917, 1918, 1925, 1926.

19) D. MATTINGLY -- Might make by ballot before we're through. Best player in baseball is hard to ignore. Prime 1984-94. Best player in 1986 by WARP, candidate by WS. 1st-team MLB All-Star (1B) 1985 and 1986; WARP adds 1987. Other star seasons include 1984, 1988, 1989, 1994. HM in 1992 and 1993.

20) F. VIOLA -- Better than I thought. Tiant-lite, more peak, less career. Prime 1984-93. Best player candidate by WARP in 1988. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) 1987 and 1988; WS adds 1984. Other star seasons include 1989, 1990, and 1992.

Just missing the cut are:
21-23) Pie Traynor, Jim McCormick, Norm Cash,
24-26) Rabbit Maranville, Ron Guidry, Lance Parrish,
27-29) Thurman Munson, Elston Howard, Jim Whitney,
30-32) Dizzy Trout, George Foster, Roger Bresnahan,
33-35) Vic Willis, Bobby Veach, Bob Johnson,
36-38) Urban Shocker, George Burns, Brett Butler,
39-41) Herman Long, Dale Murphy, Graig Nettles,
42-44) Ned Williamson, Andre Dawson, Bob Elliott,
45-47) Denny Lyons, Hugh Duffy, Vida Blue,
48-50) George VanHaltren, Silver King, Wilbur Wood,

I trust that those who say, in their defense of Pete Browning, that there is a point of diminishing returns when it comes to discounting players in weak leagues, are giving Fred Dunlap the benefit of the same doubt when it comes to 1884.
   106. Howie Menckel Posted: September 08, 2007 at 12:02 AM (#2515824)
2004 ballot - our 107th

I had last year's electees Murray-Sandberg-CJones at 1-2-xx on my ballot, was not persuaded to give Jones credit for his salary battles.

The annual fine print: Overall, I think there is too much emphasis on WARP3 and WS, which are intriguing tools but which are not yet sufficiently mature.
So my preference for ERA+ and OPS+ helps, I think, as a reality check. Increasingly, I've had to adjust for PAs/IP per season, not really an issue in earlier years when nearly all star players played almost every day or pitched a ton of innings.
I tend to be mostly prime-oriented with hitters, prime and career with pitchers. But a huge peak sometimes catches my eye, and a remarkably long hitting career also works for me.

1. PAUL MOLITOR - Averaged better than 140 OPS+ in iron-man playing time in 1991-94 - but as a DH. Excellent 161 OPS+ in 1987 - but in only 118 G as a DH-3B. Nice OPS+ as a 2B in 1979-80 and 3B in 1982 - but all in the 120s. Like the 133-132 OPS+ at 3B in 1988-89, lotta games. Gets the top spot, but I'm not dazzled. Seems like without the DH, he'd have gotten hurt too much to be elected. Is that fair? I dunno.
2. DENNIS ECKERSLEY - I expressed a lot of reservations about Eckersley in the discussion ballot (and his thread). But ultimately he was aided by a tougher-to-dominate era, which helped his SP days a bit, plus his RP peak was SO dominant. And mainly, relatively lackluster ballot opposition.....
3. PETE BROWNING - Stubbornly holding on, as the recent swipes at him didn't reveal anything I wasn't already factoring. Look at the 1890 PL season. Browning, at age 29, leads the league in adj OPS+ by 13 pts over 32-yr-old HOMer Connor, followed by a 22-yr-old Beckley and HOMers Ewing, Brouthers, Gore, O'Rourke at 6-7-8-9. Ewing is 30, Brouthers is 32, Gore is 33, O'Rourke is 39. Browning by all accounts is 'an old 29' due to his health and alcohol problems. Yet in his chance to play in a HOMer-laden league, he dominates. Yet I am supposed to assume that as a younger player he wouldn't have been able to post big numbers in the NL rather than the AA? Seven OPS+s above 163. 10 seasons as a regular, a good number for the era. This lousy fielder played some 16 pct of his career in the infield. Given the era, how much did he really hurt his team in the field? Not as much as some think; it was a different game then.

4. CANNONBALL DICK REDDING - A longtime favorite who climbed his way back onto my ballot in recent years and now has nearly climbed back to "elect-me." I liked him as an all-around candidate, but the HOF research suggests he's more of a peak guy. Those types don't always fare well with me, but with the so-so ballot, to be fair I think he belongs here.
5. BOB JOHNSON - I really like this sort of consistency over an endless span, though I'd hardly say he's a 'must-elect.' Sort of the Joe Gordon of OFs in career shape, or a slightly longer and flatter version of Kiner. I am concerned by 1944 being his highest OPS+; seems like he took advantage of the weak competition, so I discount that a bit. But has more than a decade's worth of excellent hitting, for a prime that I like better than Van Haltren's or almost any other holdover's.
6. BOB ELLIOTT - Good to see him mentioned not long ago in a discussion thread. Six seasons of at least 134 OPS+, ALL of them as a 3B. Wish he'd played all 3B and not much OF, but c'est le vie - Sewell seemed to get treated as a full SS by some. Beats out HOMer Boyer (see Boyer thread for details) and compares remarkably well with HOMer Santo as a hitter (see Santo thread for more details). Better than HOMer Hack as well, and better than HOMer DaEvans (see DaEvans thread).
7. KIRBY PUCKETT - Good prime for a CF, but not amazing. I had said if I wasn't sold on him being an excellent defensive CF in his first 6-8 years, he'd drop a bit. And now I believe his defensive prime didn't last that long, so he dropped 4 spots last year. It's that tight. I'll pass on the intangibles, but he holds his own against BobBonds offensively, for instance, and has just enough at the finish line to pass DaMurphy on long prime.
8. ROGER BRESNAHAN - Back on the ballot a few years ago after a long drought. Was discarded long ago by me when I liked many other careers better; a fresh look against this pack is enlightening. C and CF combo is fascinating; seems like he was an outstanding all-around player. Just wish he had one more big year, but I can say that about most of the ballot.
9. REGGIE SMITH - Moves up 2 more spots this year. Got back on the ballot after a reeval 4 years ago vs. Jack Clark. Played a lot of CF, and quietly was one of the better OFs of his era. Closer to Puckett defensively than I had thought, so he nears Puckett range.
10. BEN TAYLOR - Have meant to reconsider him for years; finally did so 2 yrs ago. Long career, excellent fielder, consistent player. I'm not 100 pct sold on the hitting MLEs, but very good reputation and for sure a quality player. I'll try him out here this year.
11. GRAIG NETTLES - 4th time on my ballot, moved up a few places last year. Very good fielder with nine seasons of 100 to 115 OPS+ as a regular, and outstanding from 1976-78
12. VIC WILLIS - Won a recent SP bakeoff with Grimes and Walters, with slightly more career than Walters and better peak than Grimes. It's close, but I'll stick with Willis for yet another year.
13. ORLANDO CEPEDA - Suddenly popped up on my ballot 7 years ago with the reevaluation. Had been losing out to Perez with positional consideration, but closer look shows a sterling top-4 and top-10 offensive line. DH opportunity added nothing to his case.
14. FRANK HOWARD - Usually someone pops back on my ballot each year, this time it's Hondo. I had forgotten how spectacular his peak was, and his career tally - 142 OPS+ in nearly 8000 PA. Yes, he suffers due to defense - he could make a case for ranking No. 1 if he could field! Best-3 seasons - 177-70-70 in 1968-70, with almost 2100 PA total - make these other guys look like banjo hitters.
15. DAVE CONCEPCION - 3rd time on my ballot. Peak is as good or better than Fox's; not quite as consistent, but a slick fielder and a very useful offensive weapon many times. Not fully buying the "other teams were stupid enough to play ciphers at the position" argument; that helped the Reds win pennants, but Concepcion can't get full credit for that stupidity. Similar case to Bancroft, whose prime I preferred in other years to Concepcion's length. It's close.


JUST MISSED
DAVE BANCROFT - Not sure if I ever voted for him before 5 years ago. But look at the prime: fantastic fielder at SS, with OPS+s of 120-19-19-09-09-09-04. Won a fresh 3-way evaluation vs Fox and Concepcion at one point. Similar to Randolph, but an SS, so maybe Bancroft gets the nod next time.
BURLEIGH GRIMES - Compare to Ruffing, Rixey, Wynn and other such HOM pitchers - ok, Sutton, too. I dismissed him as short of Rixey and Ruffing, and he was. But he's just one 130 ERA+ year short of climbing onto this ballot. Better peak than Tommy John, and a lot more durable relative to his era.
LUIS TIANT - Looks like he has the peak at first glance, but notice that the IP just aren't quite there. Plenty good when he did pitch, but with that lack of innings you have to be even more dominant. Maybe he winds up as the era's last P electee, but probably not.
RON CEY - In the past I have had him over Nettles and Bell and nearly on the ballot, but that's because I may like his fielding better than most. Closest of the trio to Bando in hitting. Talk me into voting for him.
LEE SMITH - Very tough one. 10 seasons I really like a lot, only 1 or 2 I love. Sutter has more to love, less to like. A lot of RPs do. Started out off my ballot last year, but very much in consideration.


AMONG THE TOP 10 RETURNEES, BUT I'M NOT VOTING FOR THEM
ANDRE DAWSON - Loved to watch him as a player, bottom line is that he simply made too many outs to be elected (per PA of course). And my system basically throws his last 1100 PA out the window (and counting stats), for which he should be grateful. I guess I'll look again next year, though.
TONY PEREZ - Faked it for 5 years at 3B, mostly a 1B and a lotta stat-padding on the downside. Doesn't have the peak I want in guys like this, nor the sufficient OPS+ toward the end.
BUCKY WALTERS - Good candidate at this point, I have voted for him before. Seemed to get Jim Palmer-like defensive support, without enough stats to make that irrelevant. Slim chance he rejoins ballot.
HUGH DUFFY - Perhaps Win Shares' most embarrassing error. The Roger Maris of the turn of the century - wait, Roger had TWO great seasons and was a good fielder, too.
ALEJANDRO OMS - Not the type of white player I loved, either - not convinced OF defense is a ticket-puncher, nor of the longevity proposed in his thread. Deserving of our consideration and vault from obscurity, for sure.
   107. fra paolo Posted: September 08, 2007 at 08:08 AM (#2516348)
if our only criteria for HoM membership were "better second baseman than Nellie Fox,"

Fixed.
   108. favre Posted: September 09, 2007 at 08:48 PM (#2517746)
I consider myself a prime voter, using a combination of OPS+/PA, ERA+/IP, and WS (particularly for defense). I examine only those seasons in which the player performed at a reasonable star level, with playing time a significant consideration. Therefore, long primes therefore do very well in my system, but I am not a strict career voter per se, and outstanding five-or six year peaks can also do well. I also give some weight to underrepresented eras and positions.

1. Paul Molitor
2. Vic Willis
3. Dennis Eckersley

My system likes long primes, so Molitor is an easy #1. Part of me thinks I have Eckersley too high. But in ’89-90 he was better than any relief pitcher in history so far—a debatable point, I know, but I’ll stand by it. Combine that with his other prime years, and I’m forced to give him an elect me spot.

With the election of Charley Jones, Vic Willis becomes my #1 backlogger. He was a workhorse--pitched 4000 IP with an ERA+ of 118, was in the top ten IP leaders nine times. He also had decent peak years, with ERA+ seasons of 167, 155, and 154.

4. Reggie Smith
5. Ken Singleton
6. Kirby Puckett

Smith appears on my ballot for I believe the first time. I looked at him again after the discussion these past couple of weeks and decided I was penalizing him too much for in-season play. I see all three of these guys as fairly similar, with each player having about nine or ten prime seasons. Reggie and Kenny are similar hitters, with Reggie obviously having more defensive value. Kirby was better with the glove than those two, but his defense doesn't quite catch up with their offensive edge.

7. Roger Bresnahan
8. Bus Clarkson

It’s great to see Bresnahan so close to election. He was in the top six in OPB seven times from 1903-1914; he did equally well in another five seasons, but didn’t have the PA’s to qualify for the title. That’s a darned impressive run for a catcher.

I’m using Dr. C’s original MLE’s for Clarkson rather than the upgrades, but even those show that Clarkson was the best third basemen of the early 1940s, and arguably the best shortstop.


9. Dale Murphy
10. Tommy Leach
11. Gavvy Cravath


I’m a little surprised by the lack of love for Murphy, at least by peak voters. From ’82-85, he averaged a 148 OPS+ as a CF; WS gives him a Gold Glove in ’84. Had another big year as a RF in ’87. That’s not an astronomical peak by any means, but it’s still pretty good.

Tommy Leach is another player I looked closely at this year, thinking that I was overrating him. But he just continues to impress me. He has seasons of 132, 125, and 125 OPS+ as a WS Gold Glove 3B; as well as 136 and 132 as a Gold Glove CF. We’ve only elected seven third basemen who played before 1950.

If we’re going to elect a lumbering outfielder with a short career, I think Cravath would be a better choice than Browning. If you use Brent/Dayrn’s MLE’s for Browning, then I think Cravath was better season for season, if you give him credit for PCL play. He was an outstanding hitter in his age 32-36 seasons, even taking his park into account.

12. Bucky Walters
13. Larry Doyle

While I recognize that Walters’ 1939-’42 peak was helped by outstanding defenses behind him, he also pitched well during and immediately after the war, when his outstanding defences were either in the service or growing old. Larry Doyle has been in my top twenty-five or so for decades; there’s just not a lot of second basemen out there with a career 126 OPS+.

14. Eddie Ciccotte
15. Antonio Perez

I’m not overjoyed about having Ciccotte on my ballot, but he had three huge seasons which makes him stand out among other eligible pitchers. Perez just stays on my ballot for the moment, but could drop as I consider how much value he had in his ’74-77 seasons.


16. Bob Elliott
17. Wally Schang
18. Frank Howard
19. Andre Dawson
20. Dizzy Trout






Not in my top fifteen:

Pete Browning Brent/Daryn’s AA projections show he wasn’t a historic hitter, and he also had some playing time issues. Basically confirms what I’ve believed for a while: excellent hitter, mediocre defence, injury problems, same resume’ as a number of other OFers.

Bob Johnson Currently at # 22 If we’re talking about long prime candidates, I can’t see putting him ahead of Singleton (who was better at getting on base, and compares more favourably to his OF contemporaries) or Perez (with his time at 3B).

Andre Dawson IMO, Dale Murphy’s prime as a CF, 1980-85, was better than Dawson’s prime as a CF, 1977-83; Murphy’s best season as a RF (’87) also better than Dawson’s best as a RF(’88), although Dawson obviously had more good seasons in the corner. I can see why career voters like the Hawk, but I prefer Murphy. Reggie Smith was significantly better.
   109. dan b Posted: September 09, 2007 at 09:16 PM (#2517776)
PHoM 2004 – Molitor, Eckersley, Mattingly


1. Molitor NHBA 3B #8
2. Dean PHoM 1976. 1975 reevaluation of great pitching peaks put him on my ballot for the first time. NHBA #25 pitcher.
3. Eckersley NHBA P #32
4. Walters PHoM 1968. Nice peak – 3 WS Cy Youngs, 1 runner up.
5. Duffy PHoM 1912. Compared with the median level of already enshrined HoMers using WS, Duffy would be in the top half using 5 consecutive seasons, 10 consecutive seasons, 3 best and 8 best seasons.
6. Rizzuto PHoM 1995. 1993 reevaluation moved him up. Stark says he is overrated, but Stark didn’t give him any war credit. NHBA #16.
7. Bresnahan PHoM 1928. SABR Dead ball era committee has him #1. No MLB catchers between Ewing and Hartnett is not being fair to all eras.
8. Cooper, W PHoM 1942. Returns to my ballot in 1995 after 44-year hiatus. His peak was during a thinly recognized period. 1 WS Cy Young, 3 times runner up. Willis may have been better, but his era is more strongly represented.
9. Singleton PHoM 1997. Not many players on ballot with 3-32+ and 6-27+ WS seasons.
10. Burns, G. PHoM 1996. Came close to making PHoM during the 1929-1932 trough. Probably should have, better late than never. His 10-consective year peak is above the HoM median as is his 3-year non-consecutive.
11. Leach PHoM 1926. Teddy bear.
12. Murphy PHoM 2002. 4 consecutive seasons with 30+ WS
13. Cravath PHoM 1967. mle credit where credit is due.
14. Mays, C PHoM 1997. His era could use another pitcher. A quality pitcher we are overlooking. NHBA #38.
15. Newcombe PHoM 1998. Giving more war and mle credit (1993). NHBA #46.
16. PuckettPHoM 2003. NHBA #98 overall.
17. Bando PHoM 1994. NHBA #11 (Boyer #12)
18. Mattingly PHoM 2004. NHBA #12.
19. Howard, E PHoM 1995. NHBA #15
20. Willis, V PHoM 1941.
21. Browning PHoM 1912.
22. Parker Do the first base line Dave. NHBA #14.
23. Howard, F
24. Berger
25. Rosen If a great 5 consecutive season peak were the only measure we considered, Rosen would have been elected in 1964.
26. Bonds, Bo Barry’s dad was pretty good.
27. Munson NHBA #14
28. Dawson
29. Staub Most career value on the ’02 ballot.
30. Veach
31. Evans, Dw I know he is a HoMer, just holding his place for the PHoM.
32. Perez Not enough good seasons to be higher. Jayson Stark says he is overrated.
33. Cepeda
34. Tiant
35. Cash, N
36. Doyle PHoM 1930.
37. Chance, F PHoM 1921.
38. Jones, C – I have voted for him (4) times – 1898 thru 1901. When I dropped him in ’02, he received only 2 votes. Ed Williamson was on 18 ballots; Arlie Latham drew more support with 3 votes. My 1898 ballot comment – “9. Jones. Two-year hold out probably costs him a couple places”. Nobody was giving credit for not playing back then, as we hadn’t tackled issues like war and mil credit yet. If as many voters had treated his hold out years like he was an all-star back then as are doing so now, he may have been elected by 1920. His 1988 top-10 finish pushed me to re-evaluate for 1989 and give him holdout credit. A reconstructed PHoM based on if I thought then like I think now, would have put him in my PHoM during the trough years of 1929-32 if not 1921.
39. Grimes
40. Ryan, J
41. Van Haltren Do 3 years of slightly below average pitching really merit Van Haltren this much more support than Jimmy Ryan? Walked 16 in stellar pitching performance 6/27/1887.
42. Redding Fared well in the Cool Papa’s survey, as did Spots Poles.
43. Elliott
44. Brock not enough peak to be higher
45. Pinson
46. Smith, Reg less peak and less career than Brock
47. Sutter I like him better than Fingers.
48. Arlett
49. Traynor
50. Nettles
51. Cicotte Better character and a couple more good years made possible by better character would have made him a HoFer if not a HoMer.
52. Gomez More peak than Tiant.
53. Bell
54. Murcer
55. Evers Comparable to Randolph.
56. Randolph A PHoM place holder. Overrated by HoM.
57. Cey
58. Mazeroski
59. McGraw Best 3B of the 90’s
60. Colavito
   110. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: September 09, 2007 at 09:23 PM (#2517781)
favre, Pérez's first name was Atanasio, not Antonio. Therefore, he should fall off your ballot. And let's replace him with his teammate David Concepción while we're at it. :)
   111. EricC Posted: September 09, 2007 at 11:52 PM (#2517860)
2004 ballot.

My low consensus ranking has been noted and questioned, but my philosophy for rating players is not complicated. I use Win Shares for position players and ERA+ for pitchers, and, roughly speaking, rate primes or careers on a sliding scale where the rate of performance required to achieve the same rating decreases as the total playing time increases, plus there is what is effectively a playing time bonus given to catchers. This helps explain why I have players like Reggie Smith (325 WS, 26.5 WS/162 g) and Jack Clark (316, 25.7) over players such as Andre Dawson (340, 21.0) and Tony Perez (349, 20.4).

1. Paul Molitor The 1 and a half'th best DH of all time, counting Frank Thomas as 1/2 a DH, above Edgar Martinez, who's well above Harold Baines. In top 100 all-time.

2. Wally Schang Correcting for the 154-game schedule and the WWI-shortened seasons, has as much career value as Freehan in as many games, at least by Win Shares. Schang's lesser season-by-season totals is because in-season catcher usage was lower during his time than afterwards. The Bresnahan argument applies to Schang, too. Career leader in WS among major league catchers when he retired. A case where WARP is not as flattering as WS, perhaps accounting for Schang's lack of support.

3. Tommy John Career pitching candidate in the mold of Faber or E. Wynn. Kaat is also similar. I can see how some voters would not put Tommy John within a mile of their ballots; on the other hand, John's decent showing in the most recent mock BBWAA election shows that some level of support exists.

4. Brian Downing This is a vote that will raise eyebrows, I'm sure. I have double-checked the numbers, and did not find any errors or compelling reasons to change my methodology, although the subjective strangeness of the outcome makes me question most (1) whether the career value portion of DH-era players ratings should be docked because careers tended to be longer (2) whether being among the best DH in a season is worth as many peak points as I'm giving. He ends up so high from a combination of every quirk in my system breaking in his favor:
catcher "bonus" for the catcher years, treatment of DH as a position in itself, population-based timelining, and consideration of league strength/affect of DH in a league.

5. Jack Clark Most similar players: R. Smith, Burkett, Heilmann, Cepeda, Singleton A "tweener" career that was good enough for long enough to land on my ballot.

6. Rusty Staub Looks like career >> peak to me. Will not help my consensus score, as similar players are the very very good types who don't make the HoM (or the HoF,
unless they attain magic numbers like 3000 hits). I should call the bats that crowd the middle to bottom of my ballot "quadruple-A HoM candidates". Why did Dw. Evans get elected to the HoM, and not Staub too?

7. Norm Cash Among better 1B most seasons 1960-1971, and occasional all-star level. More consistent than Cepeda, but less playing time per season.

8. Orlando Cepeda Among better 1B most of years during 1959-1967 and occasionally all-star level; career totals padded 1968-1974. Cepeda, Cash, and F. Howard are
a set of near-exact contemporary "bat" candidates who played in the 1960s, a tricky era in which to judge the potential bottom-half-of-the-HoM "bats".

9. Lance Parrish Had two or three excellent seasons, but his career was greater than his peak. An offensive plus who caught many games; 5th all-time in HR as a C; played in strong leagues. These credentials help place him on my catcher-heavy ballot.

10. Elston Howard Multiple years of all star play at catcher; 1961-1964 "workload" also noteworthy. A peak that few catchers have attained, but very little outside the peak.

11. Reggie Smith Among better RF most years during the 1970s; respectable career totals; played CF in addition to RF. One stat that I've tabulated for fun is career Win Shares times
career WS per plate appearance. It's not a perfect stat, but does correlate well with HoM selections. In this measure, Reggie Smith is the highest unelected player. That doesn't prove that he's a HoMer, but does suggest searching for reasons for his lack of support: (1) he's a 'tweener' between peak and career; (2) he missed a lot of playing time so that while his rate stats were always well above average, they don't show always lead to high season-by-season totals for those who look at things that way (3) he split defense among several positions; some may be rating him as a RF and neglecting his CF play.

12. Mickey Vernon Did have some all-star type seasons at 1B, but basically a "career" candidate all the way. Credit for two years missed to WWII, and belief that pre-expansion 1950s baseball had some of the toughest competiton of all time, based on teams/population. Among top contenders for "Hall of Fame chance hurt by WWII", as listed in Bill James' NBJHBA.

13. Ken Singleton Multiple all star-type seasons 1975-1979; MVP level 1977 season. Very durable in 1972-1983 prime; not much outside this. List of similar players suggests that he will not make it to the HoM easily, if at all.

14. Gene Tenace Consistent, high secondary average, run producing catcher. Would appear to be clearly below the consensus in/out line for catchers, but I rate catchers higher than most.

15. Dennis Martinez Very long career for his era and the very good seasons overcomes the less than spectacular average career ERA+.

Puckett 16th, Bresnahan 18th.

Dennis Eckersley had a noteworthy career. My system sees him as most similar to (Emil) Dutch Leonard. I have consistently been less generous to relief pitching than the average voter. No other newbies are serious contenders.

I have Bill Byrd a touch above Redding, and Sol White as the unelected NeL candidate that I rate the highest.

Bob Johnson: on the basis of his major league record (WWII seasons must be appropriately discounted), definitely not a HoMer, therefore, supporters must be giving him extra credit. Sam Rice is a more deserving late starter.

Pete Browning: whatever the HoM decides, I believe that, ultimately, he will be viewed as a HoVG player at the level of Mike Tiernan/Hack Wilson.

Andre Dawson and Tony Perez are birds of a feather, in the same boat as Dave Parker. All have HoM-worthy career credentials, but get knocked below my ballot by their lack of peak.

Bucky Walters's case has issues of quality vs. career length, and WWII level of competition. Ultimately not enough high-quality seasons for my taste.
   112. Andrew M Posted: September 10, 2007 at 12:04 AM (#2517868)
2004 Ballot

A hectic couple of weeks, so I added the new guys and kept everyone else more or less where they were.

1. Paul Molitor. 3300 hits. 11 seasons with an OPS+ above 125. Some defensive value. I can’t think of any reason not to put him at the top of the ballot.

2. Dennis Eckersley. I’d have him somewhere on the ballot for his relief pitching alone, but was also a good to very good starter for half a dozen years.

3. Larry Doyle. Arguably the best offensive player on the best offensive team in the league 1911-1913. Doyle had a career OPS+ of 126, and was consistently in the NL top 10 in HRs and slugging pct. He also won an MVP award and was the best 2B in the NL by Win Shares for 7 seasons and 2nd best for a couple of others . By all accounts played extremely hard and captained the team for several years. Let’s call his fielding erratic and note also that it didn’t seem to bother his contemporaries nearly as much as it bothers us.

4. Bob Johnson. There are a bunch of OFs clustered in the 300 WS/100 WARP range. Johnson, though, seems slightly more meritorious than the rest: Career OPS+ 138, 10 times in AL top 10. EQA .308 compares favorably to other OF candidates. Also had a good glove.

5. Tommy Bridges. Despite finishing in the AL top 10 in innings five times, he was not much of a workhorse. When he did pitch, though, he was very good. He finished his career with just fewer than 3,000 IP and his top ERA+ season is 147. He’s also probably missing 360 or so innings from 1944 and 45, and he had six seasons in which his ERA+ was between 140 and 147 (and ten seasons in which he was in the top 10 in the AL.)

6. Dave Bancroft. Great glove, above average hitter, walked a lot. Had some durability issues, but ended up with over 110 WARP(1) and had a couple of 10+ WARP seasons, including one (1921) where one could reasonably argue that he was more valuable than any position player in the NL not named Rogers Hornsby.

7. Luis Tiant. An odd career. Had the misfortune to have his best season the same year as McLain won 31 games. I’d argue Tiant was the better pitcher that year--though it’s close when you account for McLain’s 336 innings and organ playing. Was then injured for a few years before coming back and having several excellent seasons for the Red Sox in the mid 70s.

8. Tommie Leach. Played two important defensive positions well and generated a decent amount of offensive value while doing it.

9. Phil Rizzuto. Great glove, probably not as good a hitter as Bancroft. Missing essentially 4 seasons at age 25-28.

10. Dale Murphy. Posted 4 30+ WS seasons (and 5 10+ WARP) seasons between 1980-1987. Rarely missed a game.

11. George J. Burns. Another guy who rarely missed a game. He also got on base a lot, could field and run, had 3 MVP caliber seasons (1914, 1917, 1919) and averaged close to 27 Win Shares a season for a decade. It isn’t a stretch to think of him as having been best OF in the NL from 1913-1920, which is impressive in any era and league.

12. Bucky Walters. Best pitcher in the NL 1939, 1940, perhaps 1941, 1944.

13. Bob Elliott. Best 3B in the NL from 1943-50. Consistently ranked in the top 10 in the NL in WS and OPS+ over that period. Above average glove.

14. Tony Perez. Played about as many games at 3B as Paul Molitor. Hung around long enough to accumulate almost 11,000 PAs, but his rate numbers would look better had he retired at age 35.

15. Urban Shocker. Somewhere in the mix with Bridges, Walters, Stieb, Pierce, et al.

Next 10 or so
Vern Stephens
Addie Joss
Ken Singleton or Reggie Smith
Roger Bresnahan
Tommy John
Dick Redding
Alejandro Oms
Dave Concepcion
Jimmy Ryan or GVH or Hugh Duffy
Andre Dawson
Johnny Evers

Required disclosures:
Dick Redding. I’ve had him on and off the ballot over the years. I think he’s a solid candidate.
Pete Browning. Too many questions, too many other candidates.
Roger Bresnahan. I’d like him better had he played more games at catcher or if there was more evidence that he was a good catcher.
Dawson and Puckett. I’m much more concerned I’m underrating Reggie Smith than Dawson or Puckett.
   113. Howie Menckel Posted: September 10, 2007 at 12:31 AM (#2517893)
Does anyone like Molitor WAY better than Beckley?

Not sure how I'd feel, but I'd be interested in feedback/blowback...
   114. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 10, 2007 at 01:11 AM (#2517918)
Does anyone like Molitor WAY better than Beckley?


To be honest with you, Howie, I haven't met either one to say which one I like better or not.
   115. SWW Posted: September 10, 2007 at 03:00 AM (#2517970)
Just back from Minnesota; my apologies for any comments that I haven’t updated appropriately. The numbering should be right, though.

<u>2004 Ballot</u>
1) Paul Leo Molitor
I’m not thrilled about putting a guy at the top of my ballot who spent a significant chunk of his career as a DH; I’m old-fashioned. But I’m not so stuck in my ways that I refuse to acknowledge the impact of his numbers. 43rd on Ken Shouler Top 100. 81st on SABR Top 100. 87th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 99th on Sporting News Top 100.
2) Dennis Lee Eckersley
Some careers are just weird. Not bad. Certainly not lacking in merit. Just weird. Monte Ward had one of those careers. Well, Eck has one, too. In my book, they both get induction, too. 64th on SABR Top 100. 71st on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 98th on Sporting News Top 100.
3) Burleigh Arland Grimes – “Ol’ Stubblebeard”
My white whale. A successful pitcher with both a dead ball and a live one. Frequently one of the best pitchers in the league, and often the best pitcher on his team. Many comparisons to Early Wynn, whom we did elect, and most similar to Red Faber, whom we also elected. I heartily encourage people to review his case. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
4) Atanasio Perez Rigal – “Tony”
The closer Tony gets to the top of my ballot, the more skeptical I become of his position there. I’m a career guy, and his career numbers are typical of a guy I would stump for, but it feels awfully flat. For the moment, I’m going to take stats over gut feelings, since that’s the point of this project. But I’m not entirely comfortable with this placement, which tells me I’m missing something, so it could change. 74th on Ken Shouler Top 100.
5) Kirby Puckett
I know he’s considered overrated, but I’m still a little surprised more aren’t eager to join his bandwagon. Writers tend to overstate his career, overusing words like “stocky” and “fireplug”. But the man put up the numbers, with 6 Top 10 AL Win Shares seasons, and probably could have accumulated more (although I haven’t factored that in here). Also, if you’re like me and you ever ordered a McDonald’s Puck Pack, you’re still trying to burn that fat off. Sheesh. 86th on Sporting News Top 100. 95th on SABR Top 100. 98th on Bill James Top 100.
6) Dale Bryan Murphy
A pleasant surprise. Similar in some ways to Hugh Duffy, in the peak-heavy nature of his career. A lot more of a prime, though, with 6 appearances in the NL Top 10 in Win Shares. New York Times Top 100.
7) Orlando Manuel Cepeda Pennes – “Baby Bull”
Finally split up Cepeda and Perez. The biggest factor right now in my evaluation of Cepeda is the arrival on the ballot of Don Mattingly. They’re closer in merit than I realized, which is dragging them toward each other.
8) Carl William Mays
I have long considered Mays to be underrated, with better seasons and more milestones than more beloved candidates, like Luis Tiant and Billy Pierce. A much more definitive impact on his team and era than someone like, oh, Dave Stieb. I renew my suspicion that the ghost of Ray Chapman has shrouded his achievements.
9) Louis Clark Brock
Reaffirming my status as a career voter. He does well in Black and Gray Ink (owing, no doubt, to his prowess on the basepaths), and his prime WS and Top 10 WS seasons are notable. He’s hanging in there. 42nd on Ken Shouler Top 100. 58th on Sporting News Top 100. 73rd on SABR Top 100. 77th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. New York Times Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
10) Daniel Joseph “Rusty” Staub – “Le Grand Orange”
I‘m moving him up, because his career numbers actually stand out more than I realized. 358 WS is nothing to sneeze at, but his 5-year prime of 145 WS is also a standout. Imagine if he’d spent his career with one great team. 96th on SABR Top 100. 97th on Ken Shouler Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
11) Andre Nolan Dawson – “Hawk”
Compares very favorably to Whitaker, and edges out Doyle at his position. I still see a very flat career arc, but it’s a very strong one nonetheless, so I can’t really justify leaving him off. 72nd on Ken Shouler Top 100.
12) Richard Redding – “Cannonball Dick”
Definitely the best remaining Negro League pitcher. That in and of itself may not merit his election. Hanging in there thanks to my support for Mays, who has a strikingly similar arc.
13) David Gene Parker – “Cobra”
If I’ve learned anything through my association with this project, it’s that while I’m a career voter, the importance of having a strong prime has grown a great deal in my estimation. It’s that thinking that keeps Parker on my ballot, and while I’m always reviewing the matter, I’m feeling alright about this placement. There’d be no doubt, if only he’d laid off the Colombian marching powder.
14) Donald Arthur Mattingly – “Donnie Baseball”
A huge shock. Considering the toll taken by injuries, he has really impressive seasonal numbers, including ink. Compares quite favorably with Perez and Cepeda, which makes me think that I either have them too high or Mattingly too low. We’re certainly not hurting for first basemen, he does far better than I anticipated. Damn Yankees.
15) Graig Nettles – “Puff”
I remember him as a very consistent third baseman; no Schmidt or Brett, but significantly better than, say, Carney Lansford. I’m a little surprised he placed this high, but the numbers point to a strong career. Similar to Darrell Evans, who I thought went in kind of fast. Thanks to Mark Donelson for the nickname tip.

<u>Other Top 10 Finishers</u>
Louis Rogers Browning – “Pete”
Why, Mr. Browning. You have an nasty habit of surviving. A little like Rube Waddell as a slugger. Definitely better than I expected, and I think there’s a very strong case to be made that he’s might be better than Jimmy Wynn. His position and era are well-represented, and I’m not entirely convinced that he’s outstanding enough to move up. In years past, he’s finished behind such luminaries as Van Haltren, Leach, Duffy, Walters, Redding, and Jimmy Ryan, and I’m not convinced that he deserves induction ahead of them.
Roger Philip Bresnahan – “The Duke of Tralee”
I have no problem classifying him as a catcher, and certainly the best catcher currently eligible. But is he so great a catcher that he merits induction? I’m not sold.
Robert Lee Johnson – “Indian Bob”
Comes out similar to Heinie Manush, who I think is underrated, but still not quite ballot-worthy. So Bob falls short.
   116. Brent Posted: September 10, 2007 at 04:17 AM (#2517983)
2004 Ballot:

1. Paul Molitor – (PHoM 2004)
2. Dennis Eckersley – (2004). Molitor and Eckersley share the interesting characteristic that they both had split careers—Molitor as infielder and DH, Eckersley as starter and reliever—and in both cases, the individual halves don’t make an HoM career, but taken together they do. As an infielder, I show Molitor at 81% of my HoM threshold, as a DH at 67%. As a starter, I have Eckersley at 60% of my HoM threshold, and as a reliever at 74%. In both cases, the career taken as a whole easily surpasses the backlog.

3. Kirby Puckett – As a voter who values peak/prime, defense, and in-season durability, I’ve decided that Puckett is the player who belongs at the top of the backlog. Over 10 seasons (1985-92, 94-95) he averaged 156 games (adjusting to 162-gm schedule), with an OPS+ of 128; 8 of those seasons were in center field, where he won 6 Gold Glove awards. (2002)

4. Ken Singleton – Over 8 seasons (1973, 75-81) he averaged 155 games (162-adj) with an OPS+ of 149. (1991)

5. Phil Rizzuto – Over 8 seasons (1941-42, 47, 49-53) he averaged 154 games (162-adj) with an OPS+ of 100 and 73% stolen base rate; an excellent defensive shortstop; plus military credit for age 25-27 seasons. (1967)

6. Alejandro Oms – Over 9 seasons (1921-29), his MLE OPS+ was 138; a good defensive center fielder; also some credit for earlier undocumented play. (1967)

7. Hugh Duffy – Over 10 seasons (1890-99) he averaged 157 games (162-adj) with an OPS+ of 124; an excellent defensive outfielder; hit .489 with 16 RBIs in 11 post-season games. (1931)

8. Sal Bando – Over 10 seasons (1968-76, 78) he averaged 157 games with an OPS+ of 128. (1987)

9. Carlos Morán – Please check out the analysis on the Carlos Morán thread. (1998)

10. Bobby Bonds – Over 10 seasons (1969-75, 77-79) he averaged 154 games with an OPS+ of 134 and 40 SB with a 74% success rate; 3 Gold Glove awards in right field. (1987)

11. Bucky Walters – Over 7 seasons (1936, 39-42, 44-45) he averaged 18-13, 2.0 wins above team, 270 IP, 123 DERA+, 72 OPS+. MVP for 1939. (1958)

12. Bill Monroe – See analysis on Bill Monroe thread. (2004)

13. Elston Howard – Over 5 seasons (1958, 61-64) he averaged 132 games (118 as catcher) (162-adj) with an OPS+ of 132; an excellent defensive catcher; credit for several minor league and military seasons (especially 1954). (1977)

14. Dizzy Dean – Over 6 seasons (1932-37) he averaged 22-13, 3.6 wins above team, 288 IP, 129 DERA+, 182 SO, 67 BB. (1958)

15. Roger Bresnahan – Over 6 seasons (1905-08, 10-11) as a catcher, he averaged 113 games (98 as catcher) (162-adj) with an OPS+ of 136; over 2 seasons (1903-04) as a center fielder, he averaged 123 games (162-adj) with an OPS+ of 151. (1997)

Near misses:

16–20. Welch (1966), Pesky, Pérez (1994), Redding (1976), Nettles
21–25. Leach (1932), Cravath (1976), Long, Grimes (1940), Mattingly
26-30. Lundy, Van Haltren (1997), Castillo, Parker, Newcombe

Other consensus top 10:

Pete Browning – During his 10-year prime, he was in the lineup for only 83% of his team’s games. When Browning wasn’t available, his at bats went to players the caliber of Lou Sylvester, Farmer Weaver, and John Strick. I can see forgiving some in-season durability issues when a player has the career bulk to offset it, but in Browning’s case those 10 years are all he’s got.

Andre Dawson – I’m not a career voter.

Bob Johnson – WWII years need to be discounted. There are several better outfield candidates available.

Tony Pérez - # 18.

Other new arrivals:

Dennis Martinez didn’t make my top 100.
   117. DavidFoss Posted: September 10, 2007 at 05:23 AM (#2518003)
2004 Ballot

1. Paul Molitor -- Solid hitter, excellent baserunner, nice longevity for a guy who was hurt a lot when he was young.
2. Dennis Eckersley -- Eclectic mix of HOVG starter and elite closer. Combo puts him above the backlog.
3. Gavvy Cravath -- Top-notch corner OF-er of the 1910s. With MLE credit, he is at least on par with guys like Kiner.
4. John McGraw -- Great high-OBP 3B of the 1890s.
5. Larry Doyle -- MVP deadball second baseman. Position player cornerstone of the 1911-13 Giants pennant dynasty. Hit like an OF-er.
6. Dick Redding -- Great fireballer of the 1910s. His weak 1920s NeL numbers should not take away from his fine early play. I don't know why his support hasn't held up.
7. Norm Cash -- I have him higher than I had Keith Hernandez. My favorite uninducted bat from the expansion era
8. Roger Bresnahan -- High OBP C-OF of the 1900s. Playing time and positional classification issues have kept him out of the HOM so far.
9. Bob Elliott -- Excellent 3B of the 40s and early 1950s.
10. Mickey Welch -- Sure he was overrated, but we've been inducting guys like him from other eras.
11. Frank Chance -- Great hitter for great Cubs teams. Best non-Wagner hitter in the NL for several years.
12. Frank Howard -- This guy could really mash. 142 OPS+
13. Ernie Lombardi -- Catchers who hit this good are hard to find.
14. Al Rosen -- Hit like an inner circle guy for five seasons, but he came up late and then hurt his back.
15. Reggie Smith -- I had been underrating him. We've inducted the other CF's and CF/RF's that hit this well.
16-20. Puckett, Browning, Nettles, BJohnson, Leach,
21-25. ADawson, Bando, Cepeda, TJohn, Cey,
26-30. Tiant, TPerez, Singleton, Brock, Staub,
31-35. Walters, DMurphy, Kaat, Parker
   118. mulder & scully Posted: September 10, 2007 at 05:43 AM (#2518006)
2004 Ballot: My top 3 (Charley Jones got elected! Charley Jones got elected!) were elected. PHOM Molitor, ? (Eckersley – I guess) ? I’ll pick spot #3 next year.

Here are the factors I consider:
1. 7 year prime
2. 3 years consecutive peak
3. rank within era and position
4. career
5. per season of 648 PA - benefits players like Chance, hurts those who played in high offense eras like the 1890s
I give bonus for being an all-star by win shares or STATS
I include time missed for WWI and II in most cases.
I include time in high minors if a player is blocked because of when he played - independent minors.
I include time for some suspensions: Charley Jones - yes, Joe Jackson - no
I believe in MLEs for skin color.

1. Paul Molitor (PHOM 2004) – Career win shares – about 40th including active players w/ no adjustments, roughly 45th adjusting for strikes, season length, dh, etc. Great extended prime, peak not that high, 5 times best player at his position in his league.
Top 18 in league (top 10 in 8 team league adjusted for league size): 1979 (26), 1982 (30), 1983 (23), 1985 (21), 1987 (29), 1988 (27), 1989 (27), 1991 (30), 1992 (28), 1993 (30), 1994 (19),
Rank in League/Majors: 9th/18th, 3rd/6th, 14th t/24th t, 16th t/34th t, 4th t/9th t (in only 118 games), 9th t/16th t, 7th t/16th t, 4th t/8th t, 7th t/17th t, 5th t/8th t, 8th t/15th t,
Best in League at position: 3b in 82, utility in 1987, dh in 1992, dh in 1993, dh in 1994
Positional ranking: 3rd at 2b in 1979 behind Grich 28, Lopes 27.
2nd at 3b in 1982 behind Schmidt 37.
5th at 3b in 1983 behind Schmidt, Boggs, Evans, and Brett
5th at 3b in 1985 behind Brett, Boggs, Schmidt, and Wallach
Best at DH/2nd at 3b in 1987 behind Boggs
3rd at 3b in 1988 behind Boggs and Bonilla
4th at 3b in 1989 behind Howard Johnson, Boggs and Bonilla
2nd at dh in 1991 behind Thomas
Best at DH in 1992
Best at DH in 1993
Best at DH in 1994

It was incredibly difficult to think of any player who deserved an elect me bonus after Molitor.

2. Mickey Welch (PHOM 1901) - I think we missed on him. Of the great pre-60' pitchers, he had some of the worst run and defensive support - compare to Clarkson or Radbourn or Keefe (when he wasn't with NY). Chris J.'s run support index shows that his wins are real. Also, beat opposing HoMers like a drum.

3. Bucky Walters (PHOM 1958) - Great peak. This ranking includes deductions for 1943-45. Best peak available (tied with Dean) among eligible white pitchers. Best NL pitcher in 1939, 1940, and 1944. 2nd in NL by a hair in 1941. Best in Majors in 1939, top 4 in other 3 years.

4. Pete Browning (PHOM 1921) - A fantastic hitter. I know he had his best run in the early AA, but he had a great year in the PL as well. Had a great peak and prime score in my system - which knocks him for being fragile.
Ranks at the top of a group of 5 center fielders between 13th and 17th all-time. Doby, Hill, and Brown are in the HoM, Duffy is not. Top 10 position player in 1882, 1883, 1884, 1885, 1887, and 1890. Best in 1882 and 1885. League ranks, 1st, 4th, 5th, 1st, 2nd, and 4th.
Moved him down 1 space because of the excellent discussion about him and the AA going on his thread. He may get moved back ahead of Walters, but this week he is here.

5. Bus Clarkson (PHOM 2000) - ranking is based on the revised MLEs. He could hit. He could field well enough. Career hampered by the integration-era destruction of the NeLs and quotas.

6. Hugh Duffy (PHOM 1919) - Great defender. Great prime and peak. All-star 5 times. twice best in league. Moved to LF because McCarthy couldn't hit anymore and you needed two CF in Boston's park - see SABR's new stadium book. Not at the level of several HOM 90s outfielders but comfortably above the CF standards.
A key member of the best team of the 1890s. Please see the Keltner List for him. Ranks in a group of 5 center fielders between 13th and 17th all-time. Doby, Hill, and Brown are in the HoM, Browning is not. Top 10 in 1890, 1891, 1892, 1893, 1894, and 1897. 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 1st, 1st, and 8th. 11th in 1895.

7. Tommy Leach (PHOM 1966) - Great defense at third and CF - gold glove level at both. A key player in one of the best defensive teams ever. Top 15 if whole career is at 3rd and top 25 in CF if whole career was there. Split the difference and he is about even with Hack and Sutton (w/o NA credit).
Top 10 in league in 1902, 1904, 1907, 1908, 1909, 1913, 1914. Rank in league/majors: 4th/5th, 14th in 1903 but 9 are outfielders, 6th t/16th t, 3rd t/7th t, 4th/9th, 7th/11th, 4th t/12th t, 4th/9th.
Best in league at 3rd: 1902, 1903, 1904. Best in majors: 1902.
Top 3 in league in outfield: 1907, 1913, 1914. 4th by one WS in 1909.

8. Vic Willis (PHOM 1942) - Best pitcher in NL two times, second best in NL two times. Almost even with McGinnity. 4 times one of the top 2 pitchers in the National League. Best in NL in 1899 and 1901, 2nd in 1902 and 1906. Top 10 most every other year.

9. Gavy Cravath (PHOM 1979) - All players, All times. All-Star 5 times by STATS and Win Shares. Top ten position player in NL in 1913 - 1917. 1st, 3rd, 1st, 6th, 7th. A top 10 player in either league from 1909-1911 while with Minneapolis. Great peak and prime - 7 times an all-star including 1910 and 1911. Unique career that was a result of his time/place.

10. Don Newcombe (PHOM 1994) - Credit for minor league years and Korea. Yes, the ERA+ were not that high, but the innings pitched were great. I give MiL credit for 1947, 1948, and 4 starts worth in 1949.
Top 5 starter in league in 1949, 1950, 1951, (Korea 1952, 1953), 1955, 1956, 1959
Rank in league/majors: 4th/9th t (1st t/5th t with MiL credit), 4th/8th, 5th/9th, 2nd/2nd, 1st/2nd, 5th/9th. Also, Korean War Credit for 1952 and 1953 at 22 WS and 23 WS gives 2 more top 4 years. For a total of 6 plus two fifths.
   119. mulder & scully Posted: September 10, 2007 at 05:45 AM (#2518007)
11. George Burns (PHOM 1938) - Did everything well. Took a huge number of walks. Hit for good power. Never missed a game. Scored a lot of runs. Top 10 in NL in 1913, 1914, 1915, 1916, 1917, 1918, 1919, 1920. Rank in league/majors: 8th/20, 1st/4th, 7th/13th, 9th/17th, 3rd/5th, 3rd/8th, 2nd/4th, 7th/17th. 1921-23 in NL only: 14th, 18th, 15th.
Top 3 in NL outfield in 1913-15, 1917-19. Top 3 in majors in 1914, 17, 19.

12. Wilbur Cooper (PHOM 1985) - An all-star 8 times. He and Bunning are very similar, but Bunning is slightly better in several ways.
Top 5 in league/majors: 1917, 1918, 1919, 1920, 1921, 1922, 1923, 1924. 4th/NR, 4th/NR, 5th/NR, 3rd/5th, 2nd/6th, 1st/3rd, 5th/NR, 2nd/5th. Plus a 6th in 1916.

13. Alejandro Ohms (PHOM 1964) –Ohms is always at the edge of my ballot. Great consistent prime. One or two big years away from being an every-year ballot member. Stays on ballot after many years off.

14. Dennis Eckersley (PHOM 2004): What to do with him? Several big years as a closer. 1988, 1989, 1990, 1992 were legitimately great years as a closer.
As a starter,
1977: 7th in AL / 17th in majors (9th /20th including relievers)
1978: 5th in AL / 6th in majors
1979: 1st in AL / 1st tied with Niekro in majors (2nd/2nd including Jim Kern)
1985: 11th t in NL / worse than 22nd in majors (5 relievers with more win shares also)

That is not very impressive. As a starter, he is David Cone minus 400 innings and 36 win shares with a worse ERA+ (about 120 to 110). Then add 4 very good to excellent closer years, 2 slightly above average years, and 6 below average years.

In the end, it’s enough to slide onto the ballot, but I was not as impressed as I thought I would be.

BIG SHOCKER:
15. Graig Nettles (PHOM 1996): A great defensive 3rd basemen. Lacks the great years that so many 3rd basemen have in the 60s and 70s: Santo, Bando, Schmidt, Brett, Perez before he moved to 1st. Listed higher than my system says because I believe there is something my system is not catching about him.
Top 15 in league in 1971, 1972 (16th), 1974, 1975 (19th but 1 away from 15th), 1976, 1977, 1978.
Rank in league/majors: 6th t/15th t, 16th t/38th t, 13th t/31st t, 4th/9th, 11th t/20th t, 8th/16th.
Best 3b in league: 2nd in 1971 by 2, 2nd t in 1972 by 2, 1974 3rd by 3, 1975 2nd by 4, 2nd by 5 in 1976, 2nd by 4 in 1977, 2nd by 1 in 1978
Moved up based on reconsideration of comments, esp. Dan R and Chris Cobb.

16. Roger Bresnahan (PHOM 1987) - Excellent peak. Playing CF well is not a demerit. In front by a comfortable margin over Howard, Schang, Munson, Parrish, and Tenace. Was so much better than his white compatriots is a added factor. Bumped by Stieb.

17. Frank Chance (PHOM 1985) - Best peak and prime by a first baseman between Connor/ Brouthers and Gehrig. Top 10 in league: 1903, 1904, 1905, 1906, 1907. Rank in league/majors: 3rd/3rd t, 2nd/5th t, 8th t/15th t, 3rd/4th, 6th t/15th t. Best first baseman in league and majors in 1903-1907, league 1908.

18. Burleigh Grimes (PHOM 1961) – I like him better than Faber, Rixey, and Ruffing. Top 5 in league/majors: 1918, 1920, 1921, 1924, 1928, 1929. 2nd/5th t, 2nd/3rd t, 1st/4th t, 3rd t/NR, 2nd t/2nd t, 2nd t/NR.

19. Elston Howard (PHOM 1994): I kept overlooking him. I am giving more of a benefit of the doubt about his opporunity issues: Korea, race. Catcher bonus.
Top 10 in league in 1961, 1963, 1964
Rank in league/majors: 6th t/11th t, 3rd t/12th t, 3rd/8th.
Best catcher in league in 1961, 1963, 1964. In majors in 1961, 1963, 1964.

20. Dale Murphy (PHOM 2002): Member of the Wile E. Coyote School of Career Paths (Jimmy Ryan a charter member). CF is a tough position. There are the obvious: Cobb, Speaker, Charleston, Mantle, DiMaggio, Griffey, Snider, Stearnes, Torriente, and Hamilton (in some order) then what? In a knot of players at the edge of CFers. Definitely ahead of Carey and Ashburn though.
All-Star in NL: 1980, 1982, 1983, 1984, 1987. All-Star in majors: 1982, 1983, 1984, 1987
Top 15 in NL/majors: 1980, 1982, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1986, 1987
Rank: 4th/10th, 2nd/3rd, 2nd t/5th t, 2nd t/4th t, 5th/8th t, 15th t/NR, 6th t/9th t.
   120. mulder & scully Posted: September 10, 2007 at 05:46 AM (#2518008)
21. Jack Fournier (PHOM 1997): Noticed that I forgotten about him when he is given appropriate credit for 1917, 1918, and 1919. Remember he did have a 142 OPS+ for his career.
Top 10 in league in 1915, 1918 (minor league credit) 1921, 1923, 1924, 1925. Rank in league/majors: 5th t/7th t, (9th/17th), 5th t/14th t, 5th t/10th t, 3rd/4th, 3rd/6th.
Best first baseman in league: 1915, 1921, 1923, 1924, 1925. Best in majors: 1915, 1923, 1924, 1925.
I believe the MLEs for Fournier are too low because they give him OPS+ of 117, 137, and 122 at ages 27, 28, 29. Those would be his 8th/10th/and 11th highest OPS+ for his career. He may not have set career highs but I think they would have been more line with his career..

22. Larry Doyle (PHOM 1987): Great hitter at second. Defense left something to be desired. McGraw usually knew what he was doing. Maybe he did here too? Top 10 in league in 1909, 1910, 1911, 1912, 1913, 1915. Rank in league/majors: 4th t/8th t, 7th/11th, 4th/9th, 3rd/9th, 9th/22nd, 2nd/5th.
Best second baseman in league: 1909 (t), 1910, 1911, 1912, 1915, 1916 (t), 1917. Second best in majors to Collins in 1909, 1911, 1912, 1915. Third best in majors behind Collins and Lajoie in 1910.

23. Frank Howard (PHOM 2001): Career was mismanaged by the Dodgers, but at that point they had more talent than they knew what to do with.
Top 12/15 in league in 1962, 1965, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971. Rank in league/majors: 12th t/18th t, 8th t/22nd t, 6th t/14th t, 2nd/2nd, 4th t/8th t, 6th t/10th t, 15th t/33rd t.
Top 3 outfielder in league: 1968, 1969, 1970. Top 3 in majors: 1968, 1970.

24. Luke Easter: The ultimate what-if player.

25. Herman Long (PHOM 1997): Another key player on the 1890s Bostonians. Fantastic fielder. Need to review his defensive numbers. Top 10 in league in 1891, 1892, 1893 . Rank in league/majors: 2nd/3rd t, 6th, 3rd
Best shortstop in league/majors: 1891, 1893. Best in league: 1889.

26. Dick Redding (PHOM 1975): Not enough shoulder seasons to go with the big 4 years. I pulled the trigger too soon on him. Probably would make the PHOM in the last 5 years.

27. Al Rosen: What if...
Top 10 in league: 1950, 1951, 1952, 1953, 1954
Rank in league/majors: 4th t/7th t, 5th t/14th t, 3rd/5th, 1st/1st, 7th/14th.
Best third baseman in AL in 1950, 1952, 1953, 1954. Best in majors in 1950, 1952, 1953.

28. Ken Singleton: Slugging outfielder for Weaver’s Orioles. Career reputation is hindered by playing in a pitcher’s park in an average/slightly lower than average era for hitting.
Top 15 in league in: 1973, 1975, 1976, 1977, 1978, 1979, 1980,
Rank in league/majors: 9th t/13th t, 1st t/2nd t, 12th t/24th t, 2nd/2nd, 4th t/8th t, 3rd/5th, 7th t/12th t
Top 3 outfielder in league in 1975, 1977, 1978, 1979. In majors in 1975, 1977, 1979.
Could move up.

29. Kirby Puckett: Top 18 in league: 1986, 1987, 1988, 1989, 1990, 1992, 1994, 1995
Rank in league/majors: 7th t/13th t, 4th t/9th t, 2nd/3rd, 7th t/16th t, 14th tied with 6 others/30th t, 3rd/10th t, 5th t/12th t, 16th t/37th t.
Top 3 OF in league in 1987, 1988, 1992. In majors in 1988. Peak and prime are close, but not quite high enough to pull the trigger. I am not totally opposed like I am to Dawson.

Not in top 30:
Andre Dawson: Take a walk. He played in a time when OFs (and Mike Schmidt) put up the big numbers in the NL. His prime and peak scores are not high enough.
Top 15 in league in: 1979, 1980, 1981, 1982, 1983
Rank in league/majors: 14th t/NR, 3rd/9th, 2nd/4th, 9th t/18th t, 7th t/13th t.
Top 3 OF in league in 1980, 1981. In majors in 1981.
Significantly below Murphy.

Bob Johnson: The 11th or so best hitter (not player, hitter) in the AL in the 1930s. With the NeLer and NLers and pitchers included, he is not a top 30 player for a decade that already has the most HoMers. Everybody hit in the AL in the 1930s. Look how many top 100 OBP/SLG careers are centered in that decade from the AL.

Tony Perez: A couple of very good years as a third baseman then many average first baseman years (ie. performing as an average first baseman). Not in my top 50.
   121. mulder & scully Posted: September 10, 2007 at 05:49 AM (#2518010)
I figured once I stopped working nights, I would be able to do more research. But with my wife starting a home business and football season starting, there goes the free time. I don't think I'll finish the Tommy Leach Keltner List...

Go Bolts!! Ifff they can keep the big plays to a minimum, next week against the Patriots should be a doozy.

If anyone here is a football fan, give footballoutsiders.com a try. Great insight into why teams win.
   122. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: September 10, 2007 at 06:07 AM (#2518014)
A top-heavy year without much depth. In the continuing series of “Stuff You Shouldn’t Care About”, ironically last year was the first time Charlie Jones ever made the “ballot” for my PHoM. We really are getting to the end of the list here – every time I look at a backlogger, my reaction is “Wait, him? No, can’t be.” But you have to pick somebody. Molitor, Eckersley, and Elston Howard make my PHoM.

1. Paul Molitor (new) I see someone whose rate of production was pretty similar to Bob Elliott, except with 4000 more PA. That seems like a pretty clear HoMer to me. Makes my PHoM this year.

2. Dennis Eckersley (new) I’ve never been really sure about how much Eck’s career-combo is worth, but the clear fact is that nobody else has one that looks like it. (Okay, Smoltz is in the vicinity.) If other people could do it, they would have – it’s been 20 years! Makes my PHoM this year.

3. Bus Clarkson (2) Parallels Elliot’s career, but with war credit he comes out ahead, and he presumably had more defensive value. The new MLE’s didn’t boost him that much, but it was enough to move him to the upper reaches of my ballot. (Quick comparison to Sandberg – WS 344 to 346 in 800 fewer PA, OPS+ 123 to 114, 3B/SS to 2B. Even deflating the MLEs a bit, that looks pretty close to me.) Made my PHoM in 1997.

4. Dick Redding (4) Seems to have a pretty good peak, and also has somewhat of a career argument. I still tend to think he’s close enough to Mendez that they both should be in or out. Made my PHoM in 1973.

5. Bob Johnson (5) I'm impressed by his consistency, he was an above-average player every year for 13 seasons, plus he got started very late in the bigs, so I will give him at least 1 year of minor league credit. The more I look at him compared to the other corner OF candidates, the more impressed I am, and it appears the era considerations have been a little overblown. Made my PHoM in 1992.

6. Bill Monroe (6) NOT surprised to see I was his Best Friend. The new Cuban translations boost him a slight bit, as we have more evidence for his quality. A good player at an important defensive position, with a great reputation for his fielding. People like to promote the 1890s as underrepresented, but that doesn't mean the 00s and 10s are overrepresented. Made my PHoM in 1939.

7. Reggie Smith (8) For now, I think he’s the best of the 70’s OF glut. Very similar to Medwick/Johnson, but the lack of a peak holds him back. Win Shares really likes him. Not sure how I feel about those clutch numbers. WARP doesn’t have that great an opinion of his fielding, all things considered. Made my PHoM in 1995.

8. George Van Haltren (7) A very good player for a long time, even if he was never truly great. I don't reject all peak arguments, but I'll take his consistency over Duffy's big years. Made my PHoM in 1972.

9. Gavvy Cravath (9) With the basic 07, 09-11 additions, this is where I have him. A better peak than Johnson, but less consistent. WARP isn't as fond of him as WS, but he compares well to Kiner & Keller. Made my PHoM in 1987.

10. Tommy Leach (10) Dropped from the top of may ballot because I had to admit that Robinson was a better 3B candidate, and I wasn’t all that crazy about his argument either. I may have been overrating 3Bmen in general. Excellent fielder at important positions, OK hitter. One of the most complete players on the ballot. Made my PHoM in 1940.

11. Phil Rizzuto (11) He does come out as comparable to Sewell in total value, but it’s very defense-heavy, and even if it’s unfair, I’m less certain about that. Might deserve Minor League credit for 1940 (I’m not counting it at the moment.) Made my PHoM in 1997.

12. Norm Cash (12) A lot of good years, but I really think he's the Beckley of the 60s, with a shorter career (although that's not really much of a criticism). He really does look pretty similar to Hernandez, and for some reason has 6 Win Shares Gold Gloves to Keith's 1. Made my PHoM last year.

13. Elston Howard (15) If you give him fair credit for being stuck in the Negro Leagues and behind Yogi, he looks like the best catcher candidate on the ballot to me. But I wonder if his early 60s-peak just would have happened 5 years earlier under other circumstances. I admit there’s a fair amount of “What-if-ing” here, but it’s the best guess I can make. Makes my PHoM this year.

14. Bobby Bonds (13) A very strong prime candidate, but neither his peak nor career totals really stand out.

15. Alejandro Oms (14) A reasonable candidate, but doesn’t stand out for me in any particular manner.

16. Ben Taylor (18) Another solid candidate who might have been overlooked.
(16A Max Carey, 16B Rube Foster)
17. Luis Tiant (16) Like I said, he is really close to Stieb. I think Stieb gets a little more credit because he was better at his best.
18. Andre Dawson (17) You have to make allowances for a lot of things, but I do think he’s a better career candidate than Staub or Perez. But for a corner OF, he falls just a bit short in my opinion. I took another look comparing him to Dale Murphy, and I think he is definitely a step ahead of him unless you’re a heavy peak guy – it’s not just the stat-padding years (93-96), he’s got 16 years of being good or better, compared to Murphy’s 12.
19. Ron Cey (19) Better than I expected, extremely consistent. Clearly looks ahead of Bando and Nettles to me - better hitter than Nettles, better fielder than Bando, better peak than both of them. He's wasn't any worse than Evans, but didn't last as long. Major worry is overcrowding of 3B in this era.
(19A Charley Jones, 19B Nellie Fox, 19C Sam Thompson)
20. Dizzy Dean (21) Is his peak case really that much weaker than Keller and Kiner? I'm wondering. And with Stieb being a peak/prime guy, is he that much better than Dizzy?
21. Tony Perez (22) He does have a good peak, but his late-70s years aren't much above average. And for a mostly 1B guy, even his peak OPS+s aren’t impressive.
22. Vern Stephens (23) Close to Rizzuto, but with the wartime discount and the sudden dropoff after 1950, not quite there.
23. Bob Elliott (24) He’d been winning the comparison with Cey the past few years, but not this time. They’re really pretty similar, and when you discount for wartime play, he’s behind.
(23A Richie Ashburn, 23B Ralph Kiner)
24. Orlando Cepeda (25) A little ways behind the other 1Bmen. They all have a stronger argument for one angle or another. He did get his career off to a great start, though.
25. Roger Bresnahan (26) I understand his situation, but he doesn't even have 1000 games caught. A significantly better hitter than Howard, but I think if you give Elston fair credit, his career value wins out.
26. Don Newcombe (27) Basically the only pitcher candidate left from the 50s, and he has an interesting argument.
27. Rusty Staub (28) A career candidate with some peak value, but also picked up WS by just hanging around. Could rank higher. Definitely behind Perez.
(27A Hughie Jennings, 27B George Sisler, 27C Rollie Fingers)
28. Kirby Puckett (29) Yes, some very good years, but his peak doesn't match Murphy's. I can't have him too far ahead of Dale.
29. Ken Singleton (30) Chris’s study gives him a boost, but don’t forget he has a terrible baserunning rep.
30. Bucky Walters (31) Would be higher, but when you consider a wartime discount, his 115 ERA+ really isn’t impressive.

31. Dave Bancroft
32. Pete Browning (33) An outstanding hitter, but a truly awful fielder, and played most of his career in the weaker league. I wouldn't be upset if he got in, but I don't quite see it.
33. Sal Bando
34. Jack Clark
35. Dale Murphy
36. Tony Lazzeri
37. Lou Brock
38. Tommy Bridges
39. Frank Howard
40. Marvin Williams
   123. Jim Sp Posted: September 10, 2007 at 06:44 AM (#2518017)
1) Molitor--He and Eck are easy 1-2, put a lot of runs on the board for a long time, no DH discount can undo those runs.
2) Eck--Unique career, but he was a real good starting pitcher and a dominant reliever, and the competition is not exactly strong.
3) John McGraw--Ultra-dominant player when healthy.
4) Bob Johnson-- WinShares says C fielder, warp thinks he’s considerably better than that. Very high assist totals from LF. Played CF for a terrible 1938 A’s team, also a little bit of 2B and 3B. On the whole I think the record indicates that he was actually a good defensive player. I also suspect that his WinShares suffer from playing on some horrible teams. May have struggled trying to get a break, tough to grab playing time on the great A’s teams earlier in his career. Never did anything but mash despite late ML start at age 27. 1934-1942 is a HoM worth prime in my view. PHoM in 1970.
5) Nettles--Great fielder with quite a bit of pop in his bat. Best Warp3: 10.7, 10.2, 8.9, 8.4, 8.2. PHoM 1995.
6) Rizzuto--The man lost his age 25, 26, and 27 seasons to the war, right after a very good season in 1942. One of the best fielding shortstops of all time. A 93 career OPS+ is strong for a grade A shortstop, not weak. Great peak season in 1950 (11.4 warp3). PHoM 1977.
7) Concepcion--Grade A+ shortstop and could hit some too. Weak hitting at the beginning and end, but above average during prime 1973-1982. Warp3 prime: 10.7, 10.2, 10.2, 9.7, 8.8, 8.7, 8.3, 8.0. Note that Win Shares is conservative in assigning fielding credit to the great fielders. PHoM 1994.
8) Bancroft--Convinced now that the BP warp discount is excessive.
9) Reuschel--Joe D is on to something here.
10) Tommy John--Just too much career, like Sutton.
11) Stephens-- PHoM in 1961. Looks underrated to me. Best years by Warp3 10.2, 10.1, 8.9, 8.5, 8.0, 7.8. Another player short on career length, but I like the prime.
12) Buddy Bell--The number of other 3b candidates should not be held against him. Compare him to the average starting 3b of the era and clearly he was a superior player. Compare Bell’s 108 OPS+ to say Ray Knight (99), Phil Garner (99), Enos Cabell (93)—none of whom were good fielders at 3rd. It’s a tough position. Apparently I’m doomed to end this exercise with 10 third baseman on my ballot.
13) Bobby Bonds--PHoM 1986. 1969 -75, 77 are all very good to MVP candidate seasons. Career 130 OPS+ plus good speed, a good enough fielder to play some CF. Is only lacking longevity.
14) Cey--I’ll take the plunge on Cey. I like Elliott, so indeed Cey shows up on my ballot. Power, walks, and defense at 3rd…wish the Mets didn’t spend 40 years looking for that. He didn’t look like a ballplayer but he was a good one. Best Warp3 10.5, 9.6, 9.2, 9.1, 9.0, 8.9. Interesting that Hack and Groh are in while Elliott and Cey are out, I have them in the same bunch. PHoM 1997.
15) Elliott--PHoM in 1960. The hitting for a 3B in his era is outstanding. Best years by warp3: 10.9, 9.4, 9.2, 8.7, 7.7, 7.3, 7.0. Strong prime trumps an early decline in my view.

Browning--used to be a detractor, now not so sure. Age 29 for last good season is hard to overcome though. Was out of top 100, now #20.

Bresnahan--#16

Dawson--#17

Redding #22

Perez #19

Puckett--has HoVG career in my opinion, a bit overrated.
   124. The Wilpons Must Go (Tom D) Posted: September 10, 2007 at 10:46 AM (#2518031)
1. Paul Molitor: Career numbers make him a lock on this ballot.

2. Denis Eckersley: Pretty much as good as any other modern relief pitcher, excepting perhaps Rivera. The starter resume adds to his portfolio. I see no reason he does not belong.

3. Tony Oliva: Pretty much at or near the top of the league for eight years and at or near the top of my backlog for much longer. I don’t think I can make the former statement about anyone else on this list.

4. Lou Brock: The SB’s had a lot of value during his era. To paraphrase BJ, a player of the type of which I am not enamored, but the very best player of that type. 3000hits

5. Orlando Cepeda: Had one foot in the door before he was 26. He won an MVP after that.

6. Dizzy Dean: Had a few more top flight years than McLain but not as many as Koufax. 2.60 MVP shares.

7. Indian Bob Johnson: Pumped out those .295/.380/.500 seasons.

8. Hugh Duffy: Led the league in a number of offensive categories.

9. Luis Tiant: Two-time ERA+ leader and four-time twenty game winner. Irregular career pattern hurts him, but not with me.

10. Carl Mays: 81 games over .500 and a career 119 ERA+. B-R says he is the cousin of Joe Mays.

11. Chuck Klein: His “Most Similar by Age” comps are staggering. Even discounting for the ballpark, it’s a pretty good recommendation for inclusion here.

12. Pete Browning: The original masher – consistently near the lower end or just off my ballot.

13. Kirby Pucket: Good defense. OPS+ fits in with what I normally include on the ballot. For the modern era, I would prefer more career length.

14. Left Gomez: 125 career ERA+, 87 games over .500, consistent all-star.

15. Burleigh Grimes: I know its situation dependent, but the five 20 win seasons have to count for something.

Dawson is on the margin, mainly due to his lousy OBP’s. The most comparable player to Tony Perez on B-R is Harold Baines. That just about sums it up. I would like more playing time than that offered by Bresnahan. Walters 115 ERA+ and war inflation preclude him from my ballot .
   125. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 10, 2007 at 11:18 AM (#2518033)
37 ballots tallied so far. Still missing ballots from: yest, Mike Webber, Don F, DanG, the Commish, Thane of Bagarath, Ken Fischer, Esteban Rivera, Patrick W, Tiboreau
Max Parkinson, KJOK, AJM, Michael Bass, Dan Rosenheck, Kenn, fra paolo and 'zop.

The election ends at 8 PM EDT tonight and results will be posted at 10.
   126. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: September 10, 2007 at 12:05 PM (#2518046)
Devin McCullen--Norm Cash, the Jake Beckley of the 1960's? Did Beckley have some 200 OPS+ season I never noticed?
   127. Kenn Posted: September 10, 2007 at 12:52 PM (#2518063)
I mostly look at career value over a fairly high replacement level, generous with credit for missed time and fielding. My scoring system is based firstly on ERA+ and OPS+, but I have started keeping more peak-oriented and component part tallies alongside, which I use to bump players up and down on the final ballot.

1. Paul Molitor (N/E) - Molitor and Smith seem like very similar players to me. Very good hitters who could also provide good fielding value, when they could play the field.

2. Reggie Smith (4) - Looks extremely strong to me. A bit surprising, as poor in-season durability was not what I'd like, but it was still a fairly long career, with good defensive value as well.

3. Dennis Eckersley (N/E) - Bizarre career. A combination of two careers? More like 3 careers and some hanging around. Overall a decent amount of value relative the backlog, as I calculate it.

4. Tommie Bridges (5) - Love the solid run of years from 1932-1942. Throw in a little war credit and comes out as my favorite backlog pitcher.

5. Bus Clarkson (11) - I greatly appreciate the work done here on MLEs, though I find I have to discount them a bit or I get a stack of NLs at the top of the ballot. I'm convinced enough by the argument that Clarkson's era is underrepresented to discount him less than the rest (and even less this week than last) which places him here.

6. Roger Bresnehan (14) - Two of the outcomes of my efforts to balance fielding, pitching, and hitting is that fielding gets a very slow increase increase in credit going back in time, and deadball hitters get a boost. That with the look at peak raises Bresnehan, and brings Bancroft and Schang onto the ballot.

7. Phil Rizzuto (9) - I give him three years of war credit, at his average level two years before and after. With an excellent fielding rating, he keeps looking better.

8. Bill Monroe (8) - My favorite of the negro league candidates, based on the most recent MLE's posted here, though discounted as explained under Clarkson.

9. Dave Bancroft (25) - Benefits from the same adjustments as Bresnehan.

10. Wally Schang (30) - I like catchers a lot, so there's some bias here, since I haven't decided exactly how to equate them to other positions. I do think Schang is worthy, given his performance during his era.

11. Ed Cicotte (13) - I dropped pitchers from his era a bit (Joss no longer on ballot), but pitcher hitting has taken on a bigger factor than before, and he was good at it.

12. Andre Dawson (10) - The two biggest discrepencies between peak and career in my system are Dawson and Browning. I have
Dawson as an average CF and good corner, and enough excellent years mixed into the career to be worth a ballot spot.

13. Kirby Puckett (35) - Big gainer this week. Rose with every change (look at peak, CF value), which comes out as a big shift in the end. Could be even higher, but I want to double check everything first.

14. Pete Browning (21) - My ratings for the 19th century outfielders swing more wildly than for any other era based on my assumptions. Browning is my favorite for the moment, thanks to the look at peakiness.

15. Don Newcombe (-) - I've been looking for another pitcher I consider worthy of the ballot. I hadn't looked at Newcombe in depth before, but he's someone I think I can get behind, though admittedly he requires a lot of extra credit and still only gets this high because of his bat.
16. Dave Concepcion - Squeezed out this week, but will be back.
17. Bob Johnson - I feel like his era has plenty of representation, but he looks like a solid player from any angle I take.
18. Graig Nettles - Another big gainer
19. George Van Haltren
20. Bucky Walters - Cooking up a way to factor in pitcher hitting helps Walters stay close to the ballot, but ugh, I sure don't like his peripheral stats.
21. Virgil Trucks
22. Dick Redding - Walters' tail
23. Fred Lynn
24. Jimmy Ryan
25. Gavvy Cravath
26. Tommy Leach - Starting to see what others like, though I don't think he'll climb up to the ballot.
27. Rabbit Maranville
28. Tommy John
   128. Ken Fischer Posted: September 10, 2007 at 01:06 PM (#2518074)
2004 Ballot

1-Paul Molitor 414 WS
Molitor was one of the most productive hitters in the 25 years of the 20th Century. No brainer to me.

2-Dick Redding
He is ranked by many as one of the top pitchers of the pre-Negro League days.

3-Dennis Eckersley 301 WS
Eck’s combined wins and saves make him unique.

4-George Van Haltren 344 WS
His numbers deserve the high ranking. I know…I’m a Van diehard…GVH and Stephens. I just can’t drop them down. They belong.

5-Mickey Welch 354 WS
300+ wins are great in any era.

6-Carl Mays 256 WS
256 win shares in an offense dominated era is impressive.

7-Craig Nettles 321 WS
Great plays on the big stage. His low career batting average keeps him out of the other hall. He probably stayed around 3 years too long.

8-Andre Dawson 340 WS
Besides being an outstanding player he showed some style when he dared the Cubs into his late 80s contract.

9-Vern Stephens 265 WS
His comps are Doerr & Lazzeri but I believe he was better. A forerunner of the modern power hitting shortstop.

10-Wally Schang 245 WS
He played for several flag winners. Schang had great plate discipline. At the age of 39 he led the AL in HBP.

11-Bob Johnson 287 WS
A raw deal…Indian Bob will forever be hurt by playing for mostly bad teams and the overlapping eras he played in (Live Ball & War Years).

12-Pete Browning 225 WS
A great Players League year shows Pete belongs.

13-Roger Bresnahan 231 WS
Made 3 major position changes in his career. His stats are hurt by the Dead ball era.

14-Tony Mullane 399 WS
Gray Ink 198. Late in his career won 25 games after the mound was moved. Too bad he was at the end.

15-Tony Perez 349 WS
A career pick for the volume of his work.

Puckett is 28th on my depth chart. If I was putting together a team I would pick 17-Luis Tiant, 20-Gil Hodges and 22-Dick Lundy before I would go with Kirby. But I wouldn’t mind having him play CF.
   129. DanG Posted: September 10, 2007 at 01:55 PM (#2518146)
My “system”? Emphasizes prime and career; give me steady production over a fluke year or two or three. Seeing no need to reinvent the wheel, I look at win shares and WARP and rely on the interpretations of these by other analysts. IMO, our group overvalues peak; I like guys who play. There’s also a tendency here to cut and run from well-seasoned candidates. Finally, unlike Bill James and most voters I don’t give any “consecutive-seasons” bonus; value is value.

My ballot, Teddy Bears and all. My #1 and #2 were elected. In 2004 it’s Molitor, Eckersley and a backlogger. Then Boggs and a backlog bonanza in 2005. In 2006, Will Clark is the top name while Belle goes through the wringer. Ripken, Gwynn McGwire and Cone come on for 2007.

1) Paul Molitor – Easily a consensus top-150 player.

2) Dennis Eckersley – Quite close to Molitor.

3) Tony Perez – Even-steven with Staub in win shares, but drubs Rusty in WARP3; in 12-year weighted prime Perez beats him 8.41 to 7.43. Career lovers delight with enough peak to make him great. <u>Firstbasmen with most Total Bases over a 15-year period, 1949-98</u>:

1977-91 4181 E. Murray
1967-81 3915 T.Perez
1959-73 3810 H. Killebrew
1972-86 3800 S. Garvey
1958-72 3684 O. Cepeda
1966-80 3430 L. May
1973-87 3400 C. Cooper
1963-77 3379 D. Allen
1973-87 3375 B. Buckner
1963-77 3360 W. McCovey

4) George Van Haltren – We’ve now elected 16 players who were behind him in 1972. Huh? Were we so wrong about him for 50+ elections? No, we’re wrong now. Now in his 96th year eligible. Pennants Added study shows him well. He excelled in the contraction years 1892-1900; he had high SB totals (usually 35-40 in his prime years), which I believe was more important pre-1920; he was a mainly a centerfielder (~71.7% of his non-pitching games vs. ~47.6% for Ryan and 61.5% for Wynn), Ryan (and Duffy) actually played more corner outfield. Players with <u>2900 times on base 1889-1901: </u>
1—3392 B. Hamilton
2—3134 G. Van Haltren
3—3046 J. Burkett
4—3043 E. Delahanty

Players with <u>most stolen bases 1891-1900: </u>
1—660 B. Hamilton
2—443 G. Van Haltren
3—416 H. Duffy

One non-HoMer here, Players with <u>3400 times on base 1871-1909</u>:
1—4433 C. Anson
2—3954 J. Burkett
3—3729 J. Beckley
4—3661 B. Dahlen
5—3605 G. Davis
6—3579 W. Keeler
7—3507 R. Connor
8—3438 G. Van Haltren
9—3434 B. Hamilton
10—3431 E. Delahanty

5) Andre Dawson – My kind of candidate, multi-dimensional skills and longevity. Adjusting 1981 gives him peak WS from 1980-83 of 29-35-26-28. Also, 352 WS for career adjusting for 1981, 94-95 strikes. WARP3 from 1980-83: 9.0-10.5-9.0-7.9. Also, 108.8 for career.

6) Tommy Leach – Enjoyed his highest finish in sixty years in 2002; he finished ahead of eight HoMers in 1942. I think it’s what Bill James once said, that all-around players get overlooked, while specialists get overrated; voters like that one area of dominance. Modern comp to, but just a bit behind, Craig Biggio, he could beat you in many ways. Longevity, defense and speed, more important in that era, rate him above Groh. Versatility is a plus; it should not be assumed that any typical thirdbaseman of the era could have successfully handled CF. Had a better peak than Bobby Wallace, but his career was a couple years shorter and he had just a little less defensive value. Among OFers with 750 games 1905-14, he is 2nd in PO/G (behind Speaker) and 2nd in FA (behind Clarke). Players with <u>1300 or more RBI plus Runs Scored, 1902-11:</u>
1—1883 H. Wagner
2—1726 S. Crawford
3—1429 T. Leach
4—1408 N. Lajoie
5—1392 H. Davis
6—1343 F. Clarke
<u>Leaders in Total Bases, 1901-10</u>:
1—2606 H. Wagner
2—2527 S. Crawford
3—2410 N. Lajoie
4—2128 H. Davis
5—2052 C. Seymour
6—1973 T. Leach
7—1933 F. Clarke
8—1911 J. Sheckard
9—1823 G. Beaumont
10—1783 B. Wallace

Not bad for a “glove”.

7) Burleigh Grimes – Comparable to E. Wynn. Has the heft I like in a career. Pitchers with <u>3800+ IP, 1916-75</u>. The top ten are all HoMers, nearly:

1—5244 W. Spahn
2—4689 R. Roberts
3—4564 E. Wynn
4—4344 R. Ruffing

5—4180 B. Grimes
6—4161 T. Lyons
7—3941 L. Grove
8—3897 E. Rixey
9—3884 B. Gibson
10—3827 B. Feller


8) Rusty Staub – He’s the Grimes of position players. Ranks #36 all-time in Times On Base; #59 in Total Bases, just ahead of some guy named Jake. Edges Brock in win shares, blows him away in WARP3. Players with <u>OBP of .380+, 1967-76, 3500+ PA</u>:
1—.407 J. Morgan
2—.399 C. Yastrzemski
3—.397 W. McCovey
4—.394 P. Rose
5—.392 K. Singleton
6—.389 F. Robinson
7—.386 R. Carew
8—.386 R. Staub
9—.385 H. Killebrew
10—.381 D. Allen

9) Jimmy Ryan – Browning had one skill; Ryan could do it all. As a SNT he finished ahead of seven HoMers; the order in the teens was Duffy-Ryan-GVH-Beckley. Usually trailing those guys were Caruthers-Pearce-Pike-Jennings-Griffith-Childs. <u>Most extra-base hits, ten-year period 1876-1903</u>:
632 1893-02 E. Delahanty
550 1887-96 S. Thompson
549 1886-95 R. Connor
542 1883-92 D. Brouthers
525 1883-92 H. Stovey
487 1890-99 J. Beckley
481 1893-02 J. Kelley
458 1888-97 J. Ryan
453 1888-97 M. Tiernan
<u>Most outfielder Assists, 1876-1918</u>
1—375 J. Ryan
2—348 G. VanHaltren
3—348 Tom Brown
4—307 J. Sheckard
5—289 O. Shaffer
6—285 K. Kelly
7—283 S. Thompson

10) Graig Nettles – Another looonggg career 1970’s star; Darrell Evans lite. James slots him behind Boyer, ahead of Traynor, which seems about right. For the 1970’s he was #6 in HR and #10 in RBI, not bad for a “glove”. I think he still holds the AL record for HR at 3B; 2nd all-time in games at 3B.

11) Roger Bresnahan – A couple more voters now (~18) have high regard for The Duke of Tralee, as he remained in the top five finishers. Versatility should be a bonus, not a demerit. How many other catchers could have been pulled out from behind the plate to be an all-star in centerfield? Could move higher, but I really like guys who play. Played half his teams’ games in only 11 seasons, averaging 71% of team games in those years. Still, his offensive production towers over other catchers of his era, so he deserves a vote. Defense only C+. <u>Catchers with 100 OPS+, 1876-1930 (minimum 3500 PA)</u>:
1—130 B. Ewing
2—126 R. Bresnahan
3—118 C. Bennett
4—117 J. Clements
4—117 W. Schang
6—101 D. McGuire
7—100 J. Kling
Players with <u>OBP over .390, 1903-14, 3100+ PA</u>:
1—.424 T. Cobb
2—.420 E. Collins
3—.413 T. Speaker
4—.401 R. Bresnahan
5—.400 H. Wagner
6—.399 F. Chance
7—.396 R. Thomas

12) Rabbit Maranville – Every career voter should have him on their radar. WARP1 is 133.5, even better than Beckley’s 116.8 (high of 8.1). That includes four years better than 10.0. Plus he’s due nearly a year of war credit, which adds another 8.0 WARP1. Career WARP3 is 101.1, just in HoMer country. Career win shares, with war credit and adjusted to 162 games, is 339, including 124 in his top five seasons.

13) Wally Schang – There’s not a dime’s worth of difference between him and Bresnahan, so he’s still on the radar. Players with <u>OBP of .390+, 1915-29, 5600+ PA</u>:
1—.475 B. Ruth
2—.439 T. Cobb
3—.436 R. Hornsby
4—.435 T. Speaker
5—.427 E. Collins
6—.412 H. Heilmann
7—.399 J. Sewell
8—.398 W. Schang
9—.393 K. Williams

14) Gavy Cravath – Fifth time on ballot. Yeah, he has problems, but they all do. Had a long career, was a regular player into his late 30’s. And he had a high peak. What more do you need? Circumstances beyond his control kept him out of MLB for many years.

15) Alejandro Oms – Fourth time on ballot. MLEs show OPS+ of 125 in +9000 PA. Win shares 340. Those are obvious HoMer numbers for a CF. Only my hatred of Negro leaguers has made him wait this long. Seriously, even my hyper-skeptical eye has to cave at some point.

Top tenners off ballot:

If we elect Browning it will be further proof of mistakes in the design of our system; if a guy who’s liked by about a third of the electorate, and ranked +50 by another third, can make it in, something’s wrong. Nice peak in a very weak league. I don’t believe that fielding value is at all well measured pre-1893, so I’m very wary of electing any more bats from that era.

Kirby Puckett lurks just off-ballot. Nice prime.

Bob Johnson looks just like a lot of other guys. Career not that long, peak not that high, just a bat.

Redding is a good candidate if you put total faith in the translations showing a stratospheric peak.
   130. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: September 10, 2007 at 02:03 PM (#2518154)
DanG--did I just read it right that you hate Negro Leaguers? Might I venture to ask why? Did a Negro Leaguer ever do anything nasty to you?
   131. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 10, 2007 at 02:11 PM (#2518159)
DanG--did I just read it right that you hate Negro Leaguers? Might I venture to ask why? Did a Negro Leaguer ever do anything nasty to you?


Did you read the sentence following Dan G's "hating NeLers sentence?"
   132. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: September 10, 2007 at 02:24 PM (#2518168)
Yes, I did...
   133. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: September 10, 2007 at 02:28 PM (#2518171)
Devin McCullen--Norm Cash, the Jake Beckley of the 1960's? Did Beckley have some 200 OPS+ season I never noticed?

Well, no, but if you left that season out, he looks a lot like Beckley - consistent for a long time but not great, a fair amount of fielding value for a 1B. And we all know 1961 was to some extent an expansion-aided fluke, which doesn't mean you don't count it at all, but it really doesn't seem that representative of his career. It's not an exact parallel, but there certainly seem to be similarities.

A couple of Cash trivia bits - in 1961 when he had the great year, the Tigers batted him 5th all year (Kaline was 3rd, Colavito 4th). Hard to argue with success.

And in The Hustler's Handbook, written in 1965 or 66, Bill Veeck talks about trading Cash away (and his regrets that he was never able to get Andy Carey and package them together), and the surprise big year in 1961. But he adds "Since then, Cash has shown that he can't hit major-league pitching." Obviously, Veeck wasn't adjusting for era, but it does show that 1961 was never considered to be representative of his talents.
   134. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: September 10, 2007 at 02:44 PM (#2518182)
I always thought Cash's '61 resulted from a volatile stew of expansion and bat-corking. But it turns out he was corking his whole career, right? Would it be constitutional to penalize him for corking? I imagine this will come up with Albert Belle's candidacy as well.
   135. Thane of Bagarth Posted: September 10, 2007 at 02:53 PM (#2518190)
2004 Ballot
My ranking system heavily weights 5 year peaks, but additional career value can add up, too. I rely primarily on the uberstats, with about a 60/40 split between WARP and WS. I’m rather liberal with war and minor league credit. I use a catcher bonus of up to 10% based on the proportion of a player’s career spent behind the plate.

I think all of the WARP #s I’m using were up to date as of the beginning of December. I have already run the numbers for all “serious” eligibles (i.e. >200 career Win Shares) through the 2006 election.

1) Paul Molitor
He benefits from a healthy WARP1-WARP3 conversion, but even without that, it’s hard not to rank a guy with 400+ Win Shares in the top spot this year.

2) Dennis Eckersley
I was surprised my system had him this high, since I haven’t been too keen on relievers. Three of his top 5 WARP years are as a starter. Overall, he shakes out as one of the top 25 pitchers I’ve ranked thus far.

3) Tony Perez
Perez is not terribly dissimilar from Staub—they’re almost identical by Win Shares. His peak according to WARP is substantially better than Staub’s (46.6 to 40.5) and he’s got more career value to boot (109.5 to 102.7), so Tony gets the edge.

4) Andre Dawson
Hawk racked up a ton of career value, but so did Perez and Staub. A peak that’s a little better than Staub and not quite as good as Perez lands him here.

5) Rusty Staub
By Win Shares he looks like a solid HoMer: 358 career, 145 top-5 consecutive. By WARP he’s a bit more marginal: 40.5 top 5 WARP3 isn’t super, but 102.7 career is respectable.

6) Frank Tanana
His WARP totals are very good (111 WARP3 career, 47 top 5 seasons), but Win Shares has him as run of the mill. I lean a little more towards WARP in my rankings so Tanana is in the top half of the ballot this year.

7) Bucky Walters
A very good pitcher…I’m not convinced that he needs to be docked for the superb Reds defense more than the DTs already do.

8) Ben Taylor
The lack of data from his prime years makes all of this highly speculative, but I’m ranking him as if he was Keith Hernandez with a little less peak and more career (career totals of around 105 WARP3 and 320 Win Shares; with top 5s of 46 and 135, respectively).

9) Bob Johnson
100 WARP3, 287 WS for career plus Minor League credit makes him a legit HoM candidate.

10) Dick Redding
2nd best NeL pitcher of the deaball era, I’m hoping we’ll give him his due eventually.

11) Kirby Puckett
Would be greatly helped if he had 3-4 more years in the rabbit-ball era of the late ‘90s. He’s also hurt a little in that he didn’t get to add 2-3 filler years at the beginning of his career.

12) Bobby Bonds
Similar in career value to Indian Bob (93 WARP3, 302 WS). 149 WS in top five consecutive seasons is impressive, though not unprecedented.

13) Graig Nettles
Although his peak numbers are a little lower than Bonds & Singleton, career totals are a little better…Nettles ends up somewhere in the middle.

14) George Van Haltren
GVH seems to be an obvious HoMer if you just look at Win Shares (344 career, 133 top 5 consecutive—before season length adjustments); however, WARP (especially WARP3) is not nearly as favorable: 86.5 career, 36.4 top 5.

15) Ken Singleton
Similar overall career and peak value to Bonds. Both have 302 WS, just over 90 WARP3; top 5s of about 150 WS, 46(BB)/48(KS) WARP3

The Rest of the Top 50
16) Dale Murphy—Over half of his career value comes from an impressive 5-year peak. Razor thin margin separates him from Singleton.
17) Luis Tiant—By WARP alone (98.2 career, 45.3 top 5 WARP3), I’d have him higher than Walters, but Win Shares is not as generous (256 career, 108 top 5 consec.).
18) Bill Monroe
19) Jimmy Ryan
20) Gavy Cravath
21) Dizzy Trout
22) Tommy John
23) Buddy Bell
24) Sam Rice
25) Brett Butler
26) Don Mattingly
27) Tommy Leach
28) Bus Clarkson
29) Rabbit Maranville
30) Norm Cash
31) Jim Kaat
32) Dave Parker
33) Reggie Smith
34) Jack Clark
35) Buzz Arlett
36) Burleigh Grimes
37) Jack Quinn
38) Bob Elliot
39) Jose Cruz
40) Harry Hooper
41) Dave Concepcion
42) Ron Cey
43) Vada Pinson
44) Phil Rizzuto
45) Alejandro Oms—I’ve always considered Duffy a good comp for Oms, which means they’ll both be stuck in my backlog unless one or the other is elected.
46) Hugh Duffy—His uberstat numbers don’t convince me it’s a mistake to rank him here, though he isn’t terribly far behind some of the OFs at the bottom of my ballot.
47) Rick Reuschel
48) Orlando Cepeda
49) Cesar Cedeno
50) Dick Lundy

New Players Not in Top 100:
Dennis Martinez—A solid career without an inspiring peak has him around #120.
Jimmy Key—Probably a better pitcher in his prime than El Presidente, but he didn’t throw enough innings to rank much higher.

Returning Consensus Top 10 Not in My Top 100:
Roger Bresnahan—He’s neck and neck with Thurman Munson…which means not HoM-worthy in my estimation.
Pete Browning— He takes a real beating in the WARP1-3 conversions. I have voted for him in the past, but right now I’ve got him falling farther and farther behind the real ballot contenders.
   136. Paul Wendt Posted: September 10, 2007 at 03:52 PM (#2518256)
120. mulder & scully Posted: September 10, 2007 at 01:46 AM (#2518008)
28. Ken Singleton: Slugging outfielder for Weaver’s Orioles. Career reputation is hindered by playing in a pitcher’s park in an average/slightly lower than average era for hitting.

He joined the Mets immediately after they won and joined the Orioles immediately after they won 5 of 6.
The Orioles were famous for pitching and defense; Cy Flanagan and Cy Stone may be better known than Singleton.
   137. Esteban Rivera Posted: September 10, 2007 at 05:13 PM (#2518342)
2004 Ballot:

1. Paul Molitor – His candidacy has its negatives (injury prone early on, no defensive value as DH). That said, he is comfortably at the top of this year’s ballot.

2. Pete Browning - Was a heck of a hitter and did it under tremendous duress. I buy the "greatness can't take full advantage off lower competition" idea. Proved he could hold his own in the Player's League.

3. Hugh Duffy - His credentials are that he was for a time one of the best players and he produced during the 90's. Was an outstanding defensive outfielder.

4. Andre Dawson – Matches Perez in my offensive evaluations and has the defensive edge.

5. Roger Bresnahan - I believe his versatility is a major plus in his case. I can understand not giving him credit if you think his playing time at other positions was worthless but when he was an outfielder, in his case a centerfielder, he was one of the best ones in the league.

6. Dennis Eckersley – His placement gave me trouble. Ultimately, his peak is great but not exceptionally higher than other great closers/firemen. In the end, I’m treating him as a career pitching candidate with a peak. This is where he lands with that assessment decision.

7. Bill Monroe - Seems to be one of the best second basemen of his time.

8. Tony Perez - See him similar to Beckley in terms of value. His prime/career value is pretty good. Third base years help.

9. Mickey Welch - The 300 game winner. The discussion of the past couple of years has made me realize that Welch should be a HOMer. Is not that far behind Keefe.

10. Kirby Puckett - Basically a peak/prime vote. Does not have any filler years at beginning or end of career and his defense /offense combination for his position and era give him the edge over the other candidates.

11. Bob Johnson – Have been overlooking Indian Bob. PCL credit counterbalances any war discounts.

12. Vic Willis –Blame the cohort analysis for making me take another look at Vic.

13. Bob Elliott – The post someone made about holding his outfield time against him was true in my case. Not as much an outfielder as I had previously thought.

14. Burleigh Grimes - Has enough big seasons and career bulk to edge him over other similar candidates.

15. Pie Traynor - I'll agree that he is not as great as the praises make him out to be but he still has a worthy resume.

Not on ballot but made Top 10:

Bucky Walters – Actually not a bad candidate but the breaks don’t go his way (war years, sterling defenses) and are enough to keep him off my ballot for now.
   138. Chris Fluit Posted: September 10, 2007 at 05:20 PM (#2518349)
134. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: September 10, 2007 at 10:44 AM (#2518182)
I always thought Cash's '61 resulted from a volatile stew of expansion and bat-corking. But it turns out he was corking his whole career, right? Would it be constitutional to penalize him for corking? I imagine this will come up with Albert Belle's candidacy as well.


A one-year boycott would be constitutional- no longer applicable to Cash, but certainly viable for Belle. Other than that, I doubt that any specific discount would be allowable, but the commissioner and the framers of the constitution may differ.
   139. AJMcCringleberry Posted: September 10, 2007 at 05:27 PM (#2518364)
Took a new look at some backloggers. Bresnahan, Browning, Van Haltren, Duffy, and Lee Smith move up. Also looked at Elmer Smith, he doesn't make the top 100.

PHOM - Molitor, Eckersley, Bresnahan

1. Paul Molitor - Pretty good hitter, 500+ steals. Played the field over 50% of the time.

2. Dennis Eckersley - Combo of good starter and excellent reliever is good enough for #2.

3. Andre Dawson - 119 OPS+, 314 steals, over 10000 PAs, excellent defender in center. 350 Win Shares, 110 WARP3, his peak in centerfield was excellent. Basically I see him as Perez or Staub, but with more defensive and baserunning value.

4. Tony Perez - Long career (23rd in games, 34th in total bases, 62nd in runs created) and a nice peak split between third and first.

5. Bucky Walters - Great peak and good career value, 3000+ IP 115 ERA+.

6. Jimmy Ryan - Good hitting center fielder, long career.

7. Rusty Staub - Very long career (11th all time in games, 30th all time in ABs) with a decent peak. 59th in career total bases, 72nd in career XBH, 36th in career times on base.

8. Dale Murphy - Great hitting centerfielder. Excellent peak from '82-'87.

9. Dizzy Trout - Nice peak. '44 was fantastic, he was robbed of MVP by teammate Newhouser.

10. Bob Johnson - Outstanding hitter, never below a 125 OPS+ in his major league career.

11. Gavvy Cravath - Superb hitter, not much of a defender. Gets a couple of minor league seasons added to his major league totals. 4th on the all time home run list when he retired.

12. Kirby Puckett - Good hitting, good fielding centerfielder. Not a long career, but a very good peak.

13. Roger Bresnahan - Nice hitting catcher. Good peak. Realized I was docking him too much for durability.

14. Graig Nettles - Excellent defender, good hitter over a long career. Brooks Robinson-lite.

15. Frank Tanana - Pitched a long time and was average or better for most of it. Similar to Tommy John, but had better peak.

16. Lee Smith
17. Buddy Bell
18. Ken Singleton
19. Bobby Bonds
20. Hugh Duffy
21. George Van Haltren
22. Ceasar Cedeno
23. Dave Parker
24. Brett Butler
25. Vada Pinson
26. Tommy John
27. Norm Cash
28. Lance Parrish
29. Elston Howard
30. Tommy Leach
31. Pete Browning
32. Bus Clarkson
33. Bob Elliott
34. Ron Cey
35. Marvin Williams
36. Dave Concepcion
37. Harry Hooper
38. Luis Tiant
39. Alejandro Oms
40. Buzz Arlett
41. Don Mattingly
42. Orlando Cepeda
43. Gil Hodges
44. Burleigh Grimes
45. Reggie Smith
46. Jack Clark
47. Jose Cruz
48. Willie Davis
49. Fielder Jones
50. Dick Redding
51. Rick Reuschel
52. Pie Traynor
53. Dennis Martinez
54. Jim Kaat
55. Gene Tenace
56. George Foster
57. Wally Berger
58. Fred Lynn
59. Vern Stephens
60. Dick Bartell
61. Ernie Lombardi
62. Toby Harrah
63. Lou Brock
64. Red Schoendienst
65. George Burns
66. Bert Campaneris
67. Rabbit Maranville
68. Lave Cross
69. Cy Seymour
70. Ed Konetchy
   140. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: September 10, 2007 at 05:39 PM (#2518391)
Chris Fluit, why would it just be a one-year? I thought the one-year boycott was the mechanism to penalize players for problems not related to their on-field Merit. In the case of bat-corkers (and steroid users, for that matter), the point is that they would not be so Meritorious without the extra help they got.
   141. TomH Posted: September 10, 2007 at 06:46 PM (#2518489)
Albert Belle = Gaylord Perry. Or so.
Did we allow one-year boycotts for Mr. Perry? I don't recall. Or did some voters attempt to project him into a non-cheaters alternate universe.
   142. jimd Posted: September 10, 2007 at 06:46 PM (#2518490)
That's not my interpretation of how the boycott works.

Cash's bat-corking provided documented value to his teams; that must be considered in his evaluation, because we are evaluating his VALUE, not his SKILLS/TALENT. The one-year boycott allows you to protest the way that value was accumulated by breaking the rules. A similar example was Gaylord Perry, though he was elected on the first ballot.

Steroids will work the same way. You can boycott a player for one year, but then must evaluate him on his record if he wasn't elected without your vote. No performance penalties can be exacted unless you can argue that his usage somehow caused disruption that affected team results and reduced his value to his team.

Example: the Black Sox scandal broke during the final weeks of an extremely close 3-team pennant race in 1920. The resulting suspensions had a significant effect on the Sox' ability to finish that race competitively. I penalized Jackson and Cicotte for 1919 (one's 1919 regular season has little value if one then throws the Series) and for 1920 (due to the disruption), and then gave Jackson one season back (for 1918 war credit).

I don't see how any of the steroid users could have that kind of impact, other than a similar suspension at the climax of a pennant race or during the playoffs. (This hasn't happened yet.)
   143. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: September 10, 2007 at 07:03 PM (#2518500)
I'm not completely sure you're right, jimd. That is a valid way to go, but I don't believe it's required. I think it is permissible to dock someone for steroids (or bat corking, I guess) to reflect their ability and not their value. What you definitely can't do is say "I'm never voting for Jose Canseco because he used steroids and I don't want to reward a cheater." But that's only my memory of the discussion, & I'm not 100% sure.

(BTW, if we're really going to argue about this, we should probably due it in the "Spitter, Steroids & One-Year Rule" thread.)
   144. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: September 10, 2007 at 07:07 PM (#2518503)
jimd, that's your take on the issue and it's a valid one, but there are many, many voters who disagree with the premise that Merit is only a reflection of value and not of skills/talent (usually referred to here as ability). I have gotten virtually no traction with my arguments that David Concepción, for example, provided clearly Meritorious value to the Reds by being so far and away the best player at his position in the game, because people respond that he only was able to generate that value due to other teams' self-defeating unwillingness to trade defense for offense at SS, and that therefore he shouldn't receive credit for it.
   145. Mike Webber Posted: September 10, 2007 at 07:16 PM (#2518511)
Quick ballot today

1) Paul Molitor Big enough bat to make top of ballot for a career guy like me.
2) ROGER BRESNAHAN 231 Win Share, one MVP type season, 4 seasons 20+ Win Shares. Best catcher of his era. Like Leach a combo-position player that is hard to sum up what his contributions were, because he doesn’t nest into one position.
3) TOMMY LEACH – 328 Win Shares, only one MVP type season, 8 seasons 20+ Win Shares. Good peak, excellent defensive player at third and in centerfield.
4) PHIL RIZZUTO – 231 Win Shares, one MVP type seasons, 7 seasons 20+ Win Shares. With a conservative 60 or so win shares during the war, I move him ahead of Sewell. Same arguments as Nellie Fox, only with a 3-year hole in his career at ages 25 to 27, plus a bad return to MLB in 1946.
5) ALE OMS Based on the info we have I would consider him just above the in/out line for outfielders.
6) George Van Haltren Huge Career, plus short schedule. Even clipping his pitching credit.
7) KIRBY PUCKETT281 Win Shares, two MVP type seasons, 10 seasons 20+ Win Shares. In the murky centerfield ranking area with Duffy, Van Haltren, Carey, Pinson and well, I’l throw Amos Otis in here too as a Royals fan.
8) SAL BANDO - 283 Win Shares, two MVP type seasons, 9 seasons 20+ Win Shares. I believe he was better than Ken Boyer, but his home parks helped disguise it. The big seasons are what puts him ahead of Boyer.
9) TONY PEREZ 349 Win Shares, three MVP type seasons, 8 seasons 20+ Win Shares. Hits all my targets for a ballot candidate, long career, big seasons, a top 25 player at his position.
10) NORM CASH 315 Win Shares, only one MVP type season, 8 seasons 20+ Win Shares.
11) Dennis Eckersley plenty of career for my ballot, though I can see his flaws.
12) ELSTON HOWARD 203 Win Shares, 1 MVP type season, 4 20 + Win Share seasons, basically he has Thurman Munson’s career despite only having 23 win shares before age 29.
13) KEN SINGLETON 302 win shares, 3 MVP type seasons, 7 20+ win share seasons. Big Seasons sneak him onto the bottom of my ballot.
14) LOU BROCK – 348 Win Shares, three MVP type seasons, 11 straight seasons 20+ Win Shares. As a career voter I’ll put him here. Batting leadoff he had great opportunity to rack up counting stats.
15) CARL MAYS 256 Win Shares, 2 MVP type seasons, 8 20 + Win share seasons


Disclosures:

Bucky Walters – may be penalizing his WW2 pitching too much.

Pete Browning – Heck of a hitter, short seasons, suspect league, suspect fielding, suspect teammate.

Bob Johnson – in the glut of very good outfielders, Cravath, Reggie Smith, Roy White, Murcer, and Dawson.

Dawson is in my top 25, his defense seems to have retroactively been downgraded. Or maybe his bad knees at the end have obscured the image of him in centerfield as a young man.
   146. DanG Posted: September 10, 2007 at 07:18 PM (#2518513)
did I just read it right that you hate Negro Leaguers? Might I venture to ask why? Did a Negro Leaguer ever do anything nasty to you?

As John pointed out, no, you didn't read me right. It's a shorthand way of expressing my more-cautious-than-most approach towards candidates whose case is primarily speculative or requiring adjusting of more than normal uncertainty in magnitude.
   147. jimd Posted: September 10, 2007 at 07:27 PM (#2518524)
(BTW, if we're really going to argue about this, we should probably due it in the "Spitter, Steroids & One-Year Rule" thread.)

Wholeheartedly agree, so I will say no more here.
   148. sunnyday2 Posted: September 10, 2007 at 07:36 PM (#2518544)
Re. boycotts and discounts, I view the Constitution as extremely permissive. Individual voters can do more or less as they like, except you cannot boycott more than one year. Obviously there are many different POV as to whether we are honoring value or ability. I don't think we can enforce one view for these special (boycott/discount--i.e. "cheaters") cases.

To justify a discount of Belle covering several years or his entire career, however, I would think you'd need proof that he used the corked bat consistently throughout. I can't see discounting 10 years because he was caught with a corked bat once or twice. You need more evidence. That is to say, the discount is in his numbers, covering the time he missed due to suspension. So, in my view, if you are bent on punishing Belle, a boycott is probably the only alternative, and now you've got a one-year limit. I would also disagree with a boycott, myself (mountain, meet molehill) but I think it makes more sense than a discount.
   149. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: September 10, 2007 at 07:54 PM (#2518576)
But Cash admitted publicly that he corked for his whole career if I'm not mistaken.
   150. TomH Posted: September 10, 2007 at 07:57 PM (#2518579)
I have gotten virtually no traction with my arguments that David Concepción, for example, provided clearly Meritorious value to the Reds by being so far and away the best player at his position in the game, because people respond that he only was able to generate that value due to other teams' self-defeating unwillingness to trade defense for offense at SS, and that therefore he shouldn't receive credit for it.


au contraire, senior Dan. Davey C has gone from 38th to 27th in the last 3 elections, and I doubt it's been ME that has helepd that push.

OTOH, your comment makes me think of how we operate and respond to each other in general. While we're all about geting the 'best' answer possible, most of us fight our selfish tendencies to make our own points. This may often show itself when one voter comes up with a new or peculiar idea: if I disagree with it, I may respond negatively and pointedly. However, if I see it as a worthy point (but maybe not earth-shattering), my response might be more tepid; or maybe I incorporate it without much (positive) comment. After all, what 'points' do I score with the group here if all I do is go along with others; nay rather, my reputation is built on keen insights and witty comebacks to other's faulty analyses!

I exagerate for effect, but my points are two:
1) I think your take on Concepcion has merit with some voters, even if it has been met in writing by more negativity than acceptance.
2) This is true in a larger sense of many of our posts; and (points at self) some of us need to ask if we give kudos to deserving insight as readily as we zing those items we think are off-base.
   151. sunnyday2 Posted: September 10, 2007 at 08:18 PM (#2518604)
>I have gotten virtually no traction with my arguments that David Concepción, for example, provided clearly Meritorious value to the Reds
>>au contraire, senior Dan. Davey C has gone from 38th to 27th in the last 3 elections,

TomH is correct. It took about 30 years for us supporters of the notion that baseball before 1876 or 1880 or 1893 was still baseball to get Dickey Pearce and Lip Pike elected. Joe Start went a little faster, IIRC.

What is different today is that we have only another very few years left and the evolution is pretty slow. Just as with the Cooperstown HoF, modern backloggers (and that is what Concepcion is) aren't going to have the same opportunity in exercises like this to be re-evaluated, to rise above tepid first impressions, that Pearce and Pike and Start had. I'm not sure that's unfair. It's what it is.
   152. fra paolo Posted: September 10, 2007 at 08:24 PM (#2518620)
I think this is a very weak year. In an ideal world I'd really prefer not to vote for anybody in the "elect-me" spots after my first pick, and redistribute those points over the guys occupying lower positions on my ballot.

Having started life as an extreme peak voter, I have moved towards being a prime voter, and look carefully at who has already been elected to set the borderline. I also believe strongly in a ballot having a degree of positional balance.

1 Paul Molitor A solid candidate for the HoM, his career WARP3 exceeding 130. However, he's not really got the kind of peak I like to see, and he claims the top spot only because there isn't a good enough argument for anyone else.

2 Dave Concepcion I'm flip-flopping from last year, ranking Concepcion ahead of Perez thanks to Concepcion's 1974, 1976 and 1979 seasons. Should three +10 WARP3 seasons a benchmark for HoM membership?

3 Tony Perez Perez had two of the kind of pennant-winning seasons I value highly in 1969 and 1970, although they carry the taint of expansion effects. My defensive system also suggests he had above-average range at 3b in 1968, so his reputation as a poor defender is perhaps overstated, pending further analysis.

4 Kirby Puckett Every one of Puckett's 12 seasons was +5 WARP3. I mark him down a little for falling short of my modern benchmark of 2000 games.

5 Bill Mazeroski Maz's Win Shares credentials may look unimpressive, but where WARP is concerned he's a champion. He's certainly got a better case than inductee Nellie Fox, and not far behind inductee Bobby Doerr. I've moved him out of an "Elect me" slot based on my evaluation of his 1964 season. I'll eventually get round to explaining more on his thread.

6 Bob Johnson I like him for his 12 +5 WARP3 seasons. As with Puckett, he gets marked down slightly for too short a career in the big leagues.

7 Alejandro Oms My leading right-field candidate at the moment, I interpret his equivalent stats to suggest that he was a better hitter than Reggie Smith or Ken Singleton.

8 Luis Tiant I was surprised by him coming above Dennis Eckersley in the end, but Tiant had an excellent prime, with top grade seasons in 1968 and 1974, which Eckersley lacks.

9 Thurman Munson Depending on where you bookend Freehan's prime, Munson is better or almost as good. His career value is almost equal. Why isn't he attacting more support?

10 Ron Cey Somehow I managed to overlook him prior to this ballot. Cey's 1975 season is a stellar performance, and he delivered excellent value for a 3b in his career.

11 Brett Butler I like the shape of his career better than Dawson's, even if it is shorter.

12 Dennis Eckersley Yep, this low. He only became an impact player as a part-timer, and for the rest of his career was as one of the very good, but not as one of the best.

13 Ken Singleton He dominated his league for a short time, and in his 1975 and 1977 seasons delivered the kind of boost that can take his team into contention. (A shame for all those formulae that neither actually did add a pennant.) He won a head-to-head against Reggie Smith, who doesn't peak quite as well.

14 Phil Rizzuto War credit carries him past Aparicio and to the fringe of my ballot.

15 Buddy Bell Another fellow I overlooked with Cey, he offers a litle more impact than Traynor, albeit in a shorter prime and a longer career. I might change my mind next time.

Top tens not on ballot.
Cannonball Dick Redding has too short a peak for me, and not enough of what I'd call a prime.
Pete Browning and Roger Bresnahan both fall short on length of prime.
Andre Dawson I find him and Butler very close over their primes, but the sabermetric numbers (such as EqA) tell me Butler is more meritorious.

New Guys
Dennis Martinez is a career HoVG type who perhaps should have taken a page out of Eck's book and gone to the bullpen so he could get elected to the HoF.
   153. yest Posted: September 10, 2007 at 08:48 PM (#2518663)
2003 ballot

Molitor, Eckersley, Guidry and make my PHOM this year


1. Don Mattingly should have got a ring in 94 (made my personal HoM in 2001)
2. Kirby Puckett was there ever athlete who lost his reputation like he did (made my personal HoM in 2001)
3. Pie Traynor most 3B putouts 7 times (made my personal HoM in 1942)
4. Chuck Klein 4 hr titles 1 triple crown (made my personal HoM in 1951)
5. Tony Oliva most hits 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1983)
6. Mickey Welch please see his thread (made my personal HoM all the way back in 1898)
7. Sam Rice imagine if he would have started earlier (made my personal HoM in 1940)
8. Pete Browning 13th in career batting avg. (made my personal HoM in 1906)
9. Hack Wilson 4 hr titles RBI season record (made my personal HoM in 1940)
10. Hugh Duffy had 100 runs or RBIs every full year he played (made my personal HoM in 1908)
11. Addie Joss 2nd in era (made my personal HoM in 1918)
12. Paul Molitor I hate DH (though it‘s great for all star games) (makes my personal HoM this year)
13. Dennis Eckersley how many HoMers (I don‘t think I‘m taking to much liberty thinking he‘s going in) most famous moument is for failing (makes my personal HoM this year)
14. George Kell very good hitter and fielder at important and under elected position (made my personal HoM in 1963)
15. Bill Madlock 4 batting tittles (made my personal HoM in 1994)
16. Al Oliver 1 batting title (made my personal HoM in 1991)
17. Jim Rice hit 300 7 times (made my personal HoM in 1995)
18. Harvey Kuenn led AL shortstops in putouts twice assists once (made my personal HoM in 1972)
19. Heinie Manush 330 batting avg. (made my personal HoM in 1957)
20. Hilton Smith see his thread (made my personal HoM in 1964)
21. Ray Schalk the best catcher ever (made my personal HoM in 1938)
22. George Van Haltren 31st in runs (made my personal HoM in 1925)
23. Jimmy Ryan 30th in runs (made my personal HoM in 1926)
24. Luis Aparicio being a better offensive player then Rabbit puts him here (made my personal HoM in 1979)
25. Jake Daubert 29th in triples (made my personal HoM in 1930)
26. Bobby Veach most doubles twice (made my personal HoM in 1931)
27. Bill Mazeroski 2nd greatest (fielding) 2nd baseman (McPhee‘s 1) ever (made my personal HoM in 1985)
28. Roy Thomas most times on base 6 times (made my personal HoM in 1985)
29. Dave Parker would be higher with out his extra credit (made my personal HoM in 1997)
30. Gavvy Cravath most active HRs 1918, 1919 and 1920 (made my personal HoM in 1928)
31. Lou Brock like the steals more then most (made my personal HoM in 1985)
32. Kiki Cuyler 2299 hits (made my personal HoM in 1967)
33. Lloyd Waner had the most OF putouts 4 times, finished 2nd once and finished 3rd twice (made my personal HoM in 1967)
34. Ginger Beaumont 1902 batting title (made my personal HoM in 1932)
35. John McGraw 3rd in on base percentage (made my personal HoM in 1930)
36. Steve Garvey 200 hits 6 times (made my personal HoM in 1994)
37. Jim Bottomley 2313 hits (made my personal HoM in 1968)
38. Levi Meyerle best rate season ever (made my personal HoM in 1975)
39. Eddie Yost most walks 6 times most times on base 3 times (made my personal HoM in 1987)
40. Rabbit Maranville best shortstop before Ozzie moves down do to reading accounts on how his drinking hurt his team more then the numbers show(made my personal HoM in 1939)
41. George J. Burns most walks 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1932)
42. Orlando Cepada 297 batting avg 379 HRs (made my personal HoM in 1987)
43. Deacon Phillippe best walks/9 IP in the 20th centaury (made my personal HoM in 1988)
44. Babe Adams led in WHIP 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1992)
45. Dave Bancroft led SS in range factor 7 times (made my personal HoM in 2002)
46. Stuffy McInnis led in fielding% 6 times (made my personal HoM in 1987)
47. Jack Morris in short (because unfortunately I don‘t have time to post an extensive search on the subject) looking over retrosheet I found his ERA to be inflated somewhat by a few bad performances that overstate his ERA to win expectation leading many to believe his win record was inflated by his teammates more then I think is true though I found his teamates did prevent him from getting the loss what appears to be more then normal
for example in 1984 he went 19-11 with a 3.60 era though he only had 2 wins where he gave up more then 4 ER
there a basically few games in which rose his ERA to heights above his expected win level give him the loss but each of these games effects his era more then 1 game should.
on 6-2-1984 in 6.0 IP he gave up 5 runs 5 being ER raising his era from 1.88 to 2.20 getting the loss
on 6-12-1984 in 3.0 IP he gave up 6 runs 6 being ER raising his era from 2.11 to 2.51 getting the loss
on 6-29-1984 in 5.2 IP he gave up 5 runs 5 being ER raising his era from 2.39 to 2.63 getting the loss
on 7- 3-1984 in 4.1 IP he gave up 8 runs 8 being ER raising his era from 2.63 to 3.08 getting the loss
on 7- 18-1984 in 4.0 IP he gave up 7 runs 7 being ER raising his era from 2.99 to 3.34 getting the loss
on 8- 7-1984 in 1.1 IP he gave up 9 runs 8 being ER raising his era from 3.08 to 3.34 getting the loss
on 8-16-1984 in 3.2 IP he gave up 7 runs 7 being ER raising his era from 3.57 to 3.84with a no decision (give him the loss here but don’t take away the wins he did get from him)
(made my personal HoM in 2000)
48. Buddy Myer 1935 batting title (made my personal HoM in 1996)
49. Cecil Cooper most rbi twice (made my personal HoM in 1997)
50. George H. Burns most hits twice gets PCL credit (made my personal HoM in 1998)
51. Burleigh Grimes 20 wins 5 times makes my pHoM same year as Drysdale the similarities are remarkable they were both dodger pitchers, inning eaters, spitballers (though one was legal) , headhunters (made my personal HoM in 2002)
52. Ron Guidry most wins from 1977-1986 (makes my personal HoM this year)


explanation for players not on my ballot
Dick Redding barring new evidence not one will make my ballot (the HoF vote has absolutely no bearing on my vote )
Tony Perez needs more of a peak to meet with his career
Bucky Walters would have been in my pHoM with out WWII adjustments as he is he’s still close to it
Roger Bresnahan played to much outfield
Andre Dawson too low a BA/OBP for my tastes and not enough power to make up for it as is he’s not so far off from my ballot and may make my pHoM in the future
Bob Johnson with out WWII adjustments is borderline with them he’s quite a bit lower
   154. KJOK Posted: September 10, 2007 at 09:36 PM (#2518718)
Using OWP w/playing time, Player Overall Wins Score, and defense (Win Shares/BP/Fielding Runs) for position players, applied to .500 baseline. Using Runs Saved Above Average, Player Overall WInsScore and Support Neutral Fibonacci Wins for Pitchers. For Position Players AND Pitchers, heavily weight comparison vs. contemporaries, and lightly look at WARP1 and Win Shares.

1. PAUL MOLITOR, 3B/2B. 38 POW, 414 Win Shares, 112 WARP1, 397 RCAP & .626 OWP in 12,160 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Every measurement likes him.

2. ROGER BRESNAHAN, C. 23 POW, 231 Win Shares, 75 WARP1, 282 RCAP & .651 OWP in 5,373 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. He’s no Berra, but was best Catcher from 1880s – 1915.

3. JOHN McGRAW, 3B. 20 POW, 78 WARP1, 459 RCAP & .727 OWP in 4,909 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Was CAREER ALL-TIME OBP% leader until Ruth qualifies in 1923, EVEN adjusting for League, and is STILL #3 behind Williams and Ruth. AND he played 3B, where offensive output was generally very low. Plus led his team to 3 consecutive championships. Oh, AND at least 2nd best 3B between 1875-1900!

4. DENNIS ECKERSLEY, P.30 POW, 301 Win Shares, 126 WARP1, 208 RSAA, and 116 ERA+ in 3,286 innings. Relievers have to be REALLY outstanding to make my ballot, and didn’t think Eckersley would end up this high, but he did.

5. FRANK CHANCE, 1B. 23 POW, 237 Win Shares, 72 WARP1, 308 RCAP & .720 OWP in 5,099 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Excellent hitter and good fielder back when 1st base was MUCH more important defensively. Top seasons better than Beckley’s best. Deadball era offensive stars continue to get no respect….

6. BOB JOHNSON, LF. 36 POW, 287 Win Shares, 102 WARP1, 319 RCAP & .651 OWP in 8,047 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Many many very very good seasons. Best OF candidate not elected.

7. REGGIE SMITH, CF/RF. 32 POW, 325 Win Shares, 99 WARP1, 281 RCAP & .653 OWP in 8,050 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Hit like a 1st baseman, yet could play multiple defensive positions well.

8. TONY MULLANE, P.30 POW, 399 Win Shares, 89 WARP1, 241 RSAA, 240 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 118 ERA+ in 4,531(!) innings. He could hit a little too. Had a very good career AND some really good individual seasons. AA discount keeps him from being a TOP 3 ballot player.

9. DAVE BANCROFT, SS. 36 POW, 269 Win Shares, 111 WARP1, 157 RCAP & .498 OWP in 8,244 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT. Similar to Bobby Wallace and Ozzie Smith – better hitter than Ozzie, and almost as great fielding - so surprised he’s not getting more votes.

10. BUS CLARKSON, SS/3B. Estimated 123 OPS+ over 8,478 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Hitting far exceeds guys like Marcelle, Dandridge, etc.

11. DICK REDDING, P. 183 MLE Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 114 MLE ERA+ in 3,556 innings. Was the 2nd best Negro League Pitcher in his era, behind only Williams.

12. JIM FREGOSI, SS. 26 POW, 76 WARP1, 203 RCAP & .565 OWP in 7,402 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Just needs a little more something – defense, or career length, etc. – but still historically underrated, and perhaps just as good as Dobie Moore and better than Concepcion.

13. NORM CASH, 1B. 31 POW, 315 Win Shares, 102 WARP1, 295 RCAP & .671 OWP in 7,910 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Obviously underrated player who just needs more in-season PT to make a high ballot slot.

14. KIRBY PUCKETT, CF. 24 POW, 281 Win Shares, 81 WARP1, 209 RCAP & .602 OWP in 12,358 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Needs a little more value to be any higher.

15. JACK CLARK, RF. 30 POW, 316 Win Shares, 90 WARP1, 257 RCAP & .654 OWP in 8,225 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Close to Norm Cash.

LEFT OFF THE BALLOT:

NEWBIES OF NOTE:
THEY ALL MADE THE BALLOT.

RETURNEES:

PETE BROWNING, CF/LF. 28 POW, 95 WARP1, 478 RCAP & .745 OWP in 5,315 PAs. Def: POOR. Baseball’s premier hitter in the 1880’s. Much better hitter than any eligible outfielder, but only around 6th best CF in 30 year period.

ANDRE DAWSON, CF/RF. 18 POW, 340 Win Shares, 108 WARP1, 140 RCAP & .564 OWP in 10,769 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Highly overrated as a hitter, and nothing special in the field, The poster boy for the problems of Win Shares and WARP, as he ‘longevitied’ himself into high totals in those measures.

TONY PEREZ, 1B/3B. 10 POW, 349 Win Shares, 113 WARP1, 146 RCAP & .582 OWP in 10,861 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. I don’t see the love – had a few years at 3B that were not quite Rosen-esque, then became Beckley-lite. Perhaps most over-rated player ever.

BUCKY WALTERS, P.25 POW, 89 WARP1, 161 RSAA, 166 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 115 ERA+ in 3,104 innings. Hitting helps him, but doesn’t quite stack up to other pitchers.

HUGH DUFFY, CF/LF. 5 POW, 95 WARP1, 154 RCAP & .623 OWP in 7,838 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Just not in the elite OF class offensively, and fielding runs doesn’t even like his defense (-31).

GAVVY CRAVATH, RF. 18 POW, 202 Win Shares, 59 WARP1, 238 RCAP & .709 OWP in 4,644 PA’s. Def: FAIR. McGraw provided better offense in more MLB PA’s at a tougher position.

TOMMY LEACH, CF/3B. .552 OWP, 121 RCAP, 9,051 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT – 3B, VERY GOOD – CF. Just slightly below Collins defensively, and he played longer. Basically did everything well, but doesn’t have the one outstanding area to get noticed.

ALEJANDRO OMS, CF/RF. Estimated 126 OPS+ over 5,152 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Comp is possibly Eric Davis. That won’t cut it in this crowd.

GEORGE VAN HALTREN, CF. 12 POW, 118 WARP1, 167 RCAP & .620 OWP in 8,992 PAs. Def: FAIR. He wasn’t that far above position offensively, and wasn’t that good defensively.
   155. Patrick W Posted: September 10, 2007 at 11:10 PM (#2518810)
Dennis Martinez is close to the bottom of ballot pitchers.

1. Dennis Eckersley (n/a), Oak. – Bost. (A) SP / RP (’75-’98) (2004) – I have no images of Eck as a starter, so the quality of his ’75-’79 stats come as quite a shock. Easy #1, top 25% all-time.
2. Frank Tanana (2), Cal. – Detr. (A) SP (’73-’93) (2000) – Sandy Koufax peak (49.7 bonus WARP for Sandy’s peak vs. 46.9 for Frank), plus played for 10 additional years of average / below avg. Here is either the player that breaks my system or a vastly underrated pitcher by the rest of you. Only player in my top 100 who is not HOM (or going to be in ’04).
3. Paul Molitor (n/a), Milw. (A), 3B / DH (’78-’98) (2004) – My methodology of reducing the WARP ratio from W1 to W2 to offset the timeline penalty have come back to hurt Molitor, since the 80s AL is better than the baseline W2. Still top 50% all-time.
4. Tony Perez (4), Cinc. (N), 1B / 3B (’65-’86) (1994) – Completely different BA/OB/SG breakdown, but the sum of his offensive and defensive value to a team makes him look like a twin of Willie Keeler to me.
5. Luis Tiant (5), Bost. – Clev. (A) SP (’64-’80) (1988) – Right there with Drysdale, Ford and Marichal. Not a slam dunk, but the ballot’s not strong enough to hold him down.
6. Lee Smith (6), Chic. – St.L. (N) RP (’81-’97) (2003) – Goose had enough peak to start Lee as the 3rd best reliever.
7. Andre Dawson (7), Mont. – Chic. (N), CF / RF (’76-’96) (2002) – He ranks as substantially better on both offense and defense than the Rice-Parker crowd that he is usually lumped together with on the HOF ballots. Even if his ’87 MVP belongs to the No. 1 guy on this ballot, they both are worthy of the HOM.
8. Tommy John (8), Chic.– N.Y. (A) SP (’63-’89) (1997) – If you can maintain average for a quarter century, that’s just a different definition of greatness.
9. Jim Kaat (9), Minn. (A) SP (’61-’83) (1991) – Kaat would probably be in the Hall today if his ’62-’66-’74-’75 had instead occurred consecutively. His best seasons don’t seem to coincide with Minnesota’s best as a team in the ‘60s either. Value is value in my system, and this is where he deserves to rank.
10. Rusty Staub (10), Hou. – N.Y. (N), RF (’63-’81) (1996) – In my system, I have to take 9400 AB’s of 0.295 EQA over 6400 AB’s at 0.301. Wynn has the bigger peak, but Staub has 5 more seasons to his career.
11. Rick Reuschel (11), Chic. – S.F. (N) SP (’72-’90) (1996) – On the other hand, if Reuschel is going in first ballot, then it probably is a weak ballot. Nearly equals the value of Kaat in 700 fewer innings.
12. Jack Morris (12), Detr. (A) SP (’78-’94) (2001) – I like my system of discounting the pitchers for their “effort” at the bat, but Morris points out how I need to somehow discount the AL pitchers in the DH era. Morris is nearly equal to Reuschel in my system because of Rick’s lack of prowess at the plate. By eyeball, Jack might drop 2-3 spots because of this issue; he’s still ballot-worthy until I resolve the discrepancy.
13. Graig Nettles (13), N.Y. (A) 3B (’69-’88) (1997) – How can the Hall not find enough 3B to honor?
14. Charlie Hough (14), L.A. (N) – Tex. (A) SP (’70-’94) (2004) – Charlie, Dutch. Dutch, Charlie.
15. Dutch Leonard (15), Wash. (A) SP (’34-’53) (1972) – Amazing how valuable he was before and after the war, the lost time to injury in ’42 and the apparent effects of recovery in ’43-’44 keep him from the 15-18 votes that all his equals seem to be getting. Penalize one guy for playing too good during the war, penalize another for not playing good enough...

Pete Browning – Much closer to the ballot than anyone else listed below, but even he’s only approx. low 20s-high 30s.
Roger Bresnahan – He may not be in my top ten catchers available.
Kirby Puckett – Equal in value to Magee (HOM), Hooper (P-Hall), and Mattingly. If Puckett had this career in the ‘10s-‘20s, he’d be in the Hall. In the ‘80s, it’s just way too common.
Bob Johnson 1985 – It’s rather sad when I have to explain why players in the P-Hall aren’t on the ballot. Would you elect some of the pitchers above already?
Bucky Walters 1961 – It’s been awhile, but this ballot has given Bucky votes. He’s just as good as Leonard (on-ballot) and Trout/Koosman/Lolich (off).

Two players were in last year’s top ten, AND in my top 15 this year!
   156. Arrieta, Gentile Arrieta Posted: September 10, 2007 at 11:24 PM (#2518847)
2004 ballot:

1. Paul Molitor, 3b/dh: He’s one of those “imagine-if” players, but the career is pretty great even without imagining. Easily #1 for me.

2. Roger Bresnahan, c: Great player whose versatility illustrates his quality. (eligible 1921, PHOM 1929)

3. Andre Dawson, cf/rf: Looks like the major knock on this 5-tool player is that he lacks the 6th tool that’s sort of become a sabermetric touchstone -- drawing walks. All the backlog outfielders have one or more warts. With all else he offers, this is one I can live with. If I had him on my team, I wouldn’t trade him for any of the other eligible outfielders.

4. Bobby Bonds, rf: 5-tool outfielder. Had the speed and skill to play center, at least early on, but the Giants had some other guy there already. (eligible 1987, PHOM 1996)

5. Dennis Eckersley, rp/sp: Tough to figure, and I’m one who likes relievers. Great relief peak, good-but-not-great starter. Combined value puts him ahead of the pitching crowd.

6. Orlando Cepeda, 1b: Has the peak/prime edge over Perez and Cash, MVP (whether deserved or not). (eligible 1980, PHOM 1996)

7. Lou Brock, lf: Great player in a narrow sense. OPS+ underrates him. Post-season play elevates him. (eligible 1985, PHOM 1997)

8. Lance Parrish, c: I’m a little surprised he comes out so well, but here he is. 9-time first- or second-team all-star, 324 HR, A-rated defender.

9. Carl Mays, sp: Good peak candidate, pretty good hitter. (eligible 1935, PHOM 1986)

10. Lee Smith, rp: Standout reliever for many years. His best seasons are spread out in his career. (He was pretty spread out himself.) Career vote.

11. Bruce Sutter, rp: Terrific ERA+ and incredible WS rate. Established the mold for the modern closer, but wasn’t confined to the 1-inning regimen. Career’s a bit short. (eligible 1994, PHOM 1997)

12. Kirby Puckett, cf: Only 12 seasons, but really nice ones. (eligible 2001)

13. Burleigh Grimes, sp: 270 wins, .560 W%, Retro-Cy, 5 STATS AS, 9 all-star quality seasons. Too many bad seasons have ruined his chances. (eligible 1940, PHOM 1942)

14. Phil Rizzuto, ss: I’d like a little more peak, but with credit for the missing years, he’s got the career value. Great defense, infield anchor for a bunch of pennant winners. (eligible 1962)

15. Lefty Gomez, sp: Low innings total, but a terrific peak, more career than Dean, good black & gray ink, HOFS, HOFM, W-L, ERA. Pitched for a lot of good teams. He had something to do with that. (eligible 1948)



Required comments:
Pete Browning, cf: In my PHOM (’27), and I now think that was a mistake (Beckley wasn’t). Monster hitter, monstrous on defense. That he was dominant despite in-season durability problems says quite a bit about the league.
Bob Johnson, lf: The career isn’t overly long, the peak isn’t outstanding, but he was one of the top outfielders in his league almost every year. He’s fallen back, there’s nothing exciting there. (eligible 1951)
Tony Perez, 1b/3b: Less peak than Cepeda or Cash, more than you-know-who. Better as a 3b than where he played most of his career. (eligible 1992)
Bucky Walters, sp: Good peak but overall W/L & ERA+ aren’t outstanding in context of career length.
   157. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: September 10, 2007 at 11:25 PM (#2518849)
My major league post-1893 position player voting is based entirely on my WARP system, whose methodology is elaborated with great detail in the thread devoted to it, and my salary estimator. The biggest discrepancies this causes with the group involve position scarcity (I think we grossly underrate shortstops), era preference (I like guys from difficult-to-dominate years like the 1970s and 80s), and durability vs. longevity (I vote heavily on peak as measured by rate, but don't care much whether a guy squeezed his value into particular 154- or 162-game seasons--I'll take 500 PA@150 OPS+ over 700 at 125 any day). For pitchers, I'm still playing it by ear, although I'm inclined to support guys whose careers center around 1930 as that appears to have been an extremely tough era for pitchers to dominate (Grove, Hubbell, and Vance notwithstanding). On Negro Leaguers, I think MLE's are extremely unreliable, and I use reputation (or lack of it) as a reality check (yes, I'm talking to you, Bus Clarkson). And for pitchers' box era guys, I'm reliant on BP's run estimator to give me a sense of their productivity. I'm using a beefier catcher bonus now, since both their in-season durability and career length is so much lesser than other positions, and dock pre-integration players of both races for not competing against their counterparts of the other race (Babe Ruth would have had a lower OPS+ if he had played in the same league as Oscar Charleston, but Charleston would have had a lower MLE as well if the major league difficulty level were higher than it actually was due to integration).

Without further ado, to the voting:

1. John McGraw
Sometimes it really is just as simple as a .500 OBP. Yes, it's a short career, and yes, he couldn't stay on the field. But he was an inner-circle Hall of Famer when he did play, with a skill set (on-base percentage, speed, and defense) that was ideally suited for his environment, in an era when 3B was much more demanding than it was later. WS and WARP do not detect any of this value (perhaps due to the inflexibility of their run estimators and their static or nonexistent replacement levels), and furthermore unfairly penalize McGraw due to their preference for "just showing up." McGraw was a game-changing player the likes of which baseball has rarely seen since, and no one else on this ballot was half the player that McGraw was when he managed to get onto the diamond.

2. David Concepción.
My pet candidate. To rehash: His 1973-82 are virtually identical to the best of Ozzie Smith, Ozzie just bests him on longevity (especially in the field). In an era where a banjo-hitting shortstop was worth his weight in gold, and where a 150 OPS+ was nearly good enough to lead the league, Concepción was a unique commodity and gave the Reds a massive head start over every other team in the league at the game's most critical position.

3. Roger Bresnahan.
Like McGraw and Concepción, towers over his positional peers. Since I've never been one to lose sleep over in-season durability, Bresnahan holds great appeal for me.

4. Phil Rizzuto
I love my shortstops. With appropriate war credit, Rizzuto has a strong prime to go with the huge MVP year and fistful of rings. All-world glove and a premium bat for the position.

5. Reggie Smith
I'm unconcerned by his lack of in-season durability. I do like the offense equal to inducted bats like Jimmy Wynn combined with Win Shares-approved defense, half a career in CF, a low-standard deviation era, and a year of Japan credit.

6. Pete Browning
Best hitter on the ballot, bar none. Bad fielding, unimpressive career length, ease of competition, and now my segregation penalty drag him down. But man, could he ever hit. I definitely think he belongs.

7. Johnny Pesky
The new Charlie Keller...or, if you prefer, Hughie Jennings. Had absolutely monster years immediately before and after the war, with superlative defense and best-at-position offense, and also played 1941 in the minors at a high major league All-Star level (I don't give him minor league credit for that year, but it does strengthen the case for the quality of his war credit). Then added just enough post-integration to get over the hump.

8. Dave Bancroft
Doesn't have the peak seasons of Pesky or Rizzuto, and didn't face the unfavorable league conditions that Concepción did. But was the best hitter of the bunch. They all deserve to get in if you ask me.

9. Dennis Eckersley
I'm not much for relievers, mainly due to the "chaining" argument against their value (see The Hardball Times), and as a starter he was nothing to write home about. I do think he is deserving, but not in front of any of my backlog favorites.

10. Paul Molitor
Like Winfield, another canonized 3,000 hit 80's bat that leaves me shaking my head. Not an outstanding hitter early in his career, nor could he stay on the field, and only got his career OPS+ anywhere near HoM territory as a DH. If it weren't for his excellent baserunning, he'd literally miss my ballot entirely.

11. Luis Tiant
I don't have a working system for pitchers yet, but on pure run prevention (adjusted for defense), he seems to have the best combination of peak and career.

12. Graig Nettles
An all-time great with the glove, with a low replacement level and a difficult-to-dominate league.

13. Wally Schang
With greater sensitivity to early-game catching conditions, Schang's hitting and longevity stand out.

14. Burleigh Grimes
In my research on pitcher standard deviations and translated innings pitched, I noticed that pitcher performance in the late 1920's was very tightly bunched together both in terms of durability and effectiveness. Grimes seems to be the best of that bunch.

15. Alejandro Oms
Play in Cuba denied him the opportunity to get a reputation in the US, and the MLE's seem plausible.
Off ballot, but supported:


Dagoberto Campaneris
Speed killed in those low-scoring days. The AL's (slightly lesser) version of Concepción, with Campaneris' better baserunning not quite compensating for Concepción's better fielding.

Toby Harrah
Everyone who argues with me on Concepción says David shouldn't be credited for other teams' irrational unwillingness to trade defense for offense at shortstop in those days. Well, Texas did--and boy, was it worth it.

Buddy Bell
A better version of Brooks Robinson.

Left off

Dick Redding
I find the MLE's too sketchy.

Bob Johnson
Maybe he deserves minor league credit, but his only legit peak year was just a wartime fiction. His major league record is borderline, which makes him miss after adjusting for segregation.

Hugh Duffy
Unless someone can show me compelling evidence that he in particular caused his teams to outperform their component stats, I'll hand that credit to the manager and leave him off my ballot.

Andre Dawson
The strike season is phenomenal, and he was a high-level All-Star in '80, '82, and '83 as well. But besides that he was barely above a league-average player most years, and he somehow managed to stay in the major leagues for four straight years below replacement level.

Atanasio Pérez
Nowhere close for me--only big years were around expansion, and barely above average for his position after after 1973.

Kirby Puckett
I've bashed him everywhere I can. I find him indistinguishable from Andy Van Slyke and inferior to Fred Lynn.

Bucky Walters
An illusion of his fielders and the war.
   158. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: September 10, 2007 at 11:28 PM (#2518857)
Sorry, I forgot to mention that Campaneris, Harrah, and Bell are in the "supported but missing ballot" section.
   159. Tiboreau Posted: September 10, 2007 at 11:38 PM (#2518892)
1. 3b\dh Paul Molitor—An excellent career candidate who's peak is hurt a bit by durability issues. Some have compared him to Jake Beckley, but I believe that overrates competition in the 1890s and underrates it in the 1980s.
2. rp\sp Dennis Eckersley—A very unique career: an excellent peak as a reliever with a few solid years as a starter thrown in. IMO it is enough to sit atop the backlog.
3. cf\rf Alejandro Oms—The Cuban Enos Slaughter: only one season over 30 WS, but 8 over 25; considering the effects of regression, had a nice peak as well as a real good career, including three statistically undocumented seasons in the Cuban Sugar Leagues before his recorded explosion in performance at age 26.
4. 1b Luke Easter—We know that he had a long career (records of play with top Negro League teams in late ‘30s, early ‘40s and continued to play in the minors until the early ‘60s). We know he had the potential for big play (1948 and, when healthy, ’52, ’56 and ’58). What we don’t know is how well he would have played in the first half of his career, during his twenties. Yet, as we dig deeper into the backlog I find myself more willing to elect a player with a good career who showed the potential for greatness than one with a long career of merely above average play or one with short period of definite greatness during an abbreviated career.
5. sp Dizzy Dean—For five years he was among the greatest pitchers of all-time. Sadly, his career essentially comprises of those five years. The greatest peak among eligible pitching candidates.
6. 3b John McGraw—Two great seasons surrounded by several more excellent yet injury-riddled years while playing a physically demanding (and underrepresented) position in a physically demanding era.
7. c\cf Roger Bresnahan—While his peak doesn't deserve the same catcher's credit considering the two years spent in center, it's is still a valuable one, more than I was giving credit for, especially when considering the time period.
8. sp Leroy Matlock—Had a great peak, including 26 straight wins from ’34 to ’36. In fact, according to the MLEs, Matlock’s peak (and career) was better than Dean’s. However, the difficulties of estimating season-by-season value of Negro League pitchers leads me to place Matlock a bit below Dizzy.
9. 3b Al Rosen—Flip's candidacy is similar to Dean's: five excellent seasons without much else, his career cut short by Keltner at the front end and back injuries at opposite end.
10. cf\rf Dale Murphy—Wally Berger with a few career padding years thrown in. Since the ‘80s appear to be much more difficult to dominate Mr. Clean slips in a bit higher than his 1930s counterpart.
11. sp Urban Shocker—Jumped back on my radar screen due to Joe Dimino’s pitcher numbers. Like the rest, short career but packed in quality seasons for the majority of that time. Similar to Dave Stieb, just a little less career value.
12. rf Bobby Bonds—Yes, another nice peak, shorter career candidate on my ballot; his peak value a little lower, his career value a little higher than the others. I view him similarly to Jimmy Wynn.
13. c Elston Howard—His peak is slightly better than Bresnahan's, career slightly shorter. Looking over his case again after some discussion during the last election, I feel I was giving him too much pre-MLB credit; it was a few years before his translated MLEs looked good enough to establish notice and I'm not going to give much in terms of blocking credit.
14. ss Johnny Pesky—Due to DanR's comments, I've taken a second look at Mr. Pesky, and in doing so have come to the conclusion that I haven't given him enough WWII credit. A nice peak candidate from an underrepresented era.
15. rf Ken Singleton—Singleton is one of the players who does it a bit better in one system than another. Going solely by Win Shares I'd have him ahead of Bonds, but by WARP he'd be a below him. I think this is mostly due to WARP's more aggressive stance on the importance of defense, so will side with it.

Required Disclosures:
sp Bucky Walters—He's just off my ballot. It is a nice peak, but inflated a bit due to the decreased competition during the war, and the excellent defense behind him during his peak.
1b\3b Tony Perez—Excellent career value puts him in the consideration set. Decent peak value makes him a ballot contender. A few more years at third would’ve put him on my ballot, but as is he just falls short.
rf\cf Andre Dawson—Another excellent career candidate with a decent peak; the latter is just not enough, considering his position, to make my ballot.
cf\lf Pete Browning—The earliest version of the all-hit, no field candidates eligible, Browning also benefited from the easier competition of a weaker league during baseball’s teething years. After Brent’s AA translations I feel more comfortable with my placement of the Gladiator.
lf Bob Johnson—He did have a nice prime and he does deserve a couple years credit for his play in the PCL, but according to both WS and WARP Indian Bob has peak is just not enough to make up for a short career.
cf Kirby Puckett—A 1980/90s version of Indian Bob Johnson.
   160. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: September 10, 2007 at 11:39 PM (#2518897)
--------------------------
Category 1: No-brainers

1. R. Bresnahan- I think the electorate is grossly
underrating him, unfairly penalizing his peak due to imaginary durability issues. His contemporaries universally regarded him as an all-time great. Lightyears ahead of the other eligible catchers; lightyears ahead of catchers already elected.

--------------------
Category 2: In, but with flaws

2. D. Dean- Best 3-year peak available on the ballot. But no career to speak of.

3. J. McGraw- Sure, playing time matters, but a .500+ OBP overrides other concerns. Probably deserves an intangible "leadership" boost, too.

4. P. Rizzuto - War credit. Could be swapped with Pesky depending on how you handle the war, but I'll go with the devil I know.

5. D. Concepcion - Clearly over the line; the only uncertainty lies with the validity of trusting the markets ability to most efficiently man the SS position in his era. I think that he was the greatest SS to play in the conditions of his time; if you believe teams behaved irrationally then you might conclude otherwise.

6. P. Molitor- Saved by baserunning. Didn't have the bat to carry his position, so he's on by the skin of his teeth. But he's in. Relative to position, worse than everyone above him.

7. P. Browning-Widely thought of as an all-time great by both his generation and the one that came after; the defense and baserunning and durability drop him down this low. Uncertainty of league discount prevents him from being up with the no-brainer crowd.

8. D. Eckersley- I have no idea how to deal with his crazy-ass career, so I'm slotting him here, admittedly by eyeball. I think he belongs, so he's above the borderliners, but I'm not sure by how much he belongs, so he's the bottom of the "flawed -but-in".
----------------------
Category 3: Borderliners


9. L. Gomez - Gets a small boost for not relying on the defense.

10.R. Smith- Minimal Japan credit. Huge boost for context.

11.B. Grimes- Dan has indicated to me that he looks very good in his preliminary pitcher #'s.

12.Tiant- According to Dan's preliminary pitcher #'s, he's the best modern pitcher candidate.

13. J. Pesky-The insolvable problem of how to credit a missing wartime peak.

14.Bancroft- Since I use Dan R.'s system, I'm very pro shortstop. I like the SS's (Pesky and Rizzuto) of similar career value with a peakier career-shape better, and Concepcion is clearly more valuble once you adjust for context.

15. E. Howard- I think that the whole "imagination" thing is bullshit-Howard was we that he was, and we have a pretty thorough MLB record to prove it. But, Howard has a legitimate argument to being screwed, a real, great peak, and a home park that wasn't suited to his skills.
--------------

Just off ballot: B. Johnson, E. Cicotte, G. Nettles
----------------------
Top 10 Returnees: Puckett, Dawson, Perez- Puckett can't carry little Reggie's jock, to say the least of other OF's that arent even on ballot. Perez is a mediocre peak and a ton of hang-on time; a first ballot inductee into the Hall of Played for a Really Long Time But Wasnt That Good. Dawson was a legit beast for one year, and good for four. But he sucked for the rest of his career, and again, he's not close to the ballot when you've got tons of really good OF primes that aren't even making the ballot.
   161. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: September 10, 2007 at 11:46 PM (#2518919)
Just in the nick of time . . .

My ballot:

Since some people asked us to include what we consider . . . I try to look at it all. I'm a career voter mostly - not because I have any bias towards it, but just because the numbers (and every study I've ever seen) tell me that peaks are overrated and 5+5 is only about 10-15% less valuable than 10+0.

I give full war credit, and I think it's a major mistake not to when comparing players across eras. My biggest regret on this project is that we didn't require all voters to give war credit like we did with Negro League credit. I see no difference, both were a circumstance of the player's birthday that was beyond his control. I also follow similar philosophy on strikes. I think it's a cop out to say we don't know so it's a zero. If a guy was a 25 WS a year player before and after the war, a zero is a much bigger mistake than giving him three 25s. As far as injury you just credit a guy based on his playing time before and after the war. There's no reason to assume he would have been any more (or less) injury prone during those years.

I'll give minor league credit for players trapped - once they've had a 'here I am, let me play!' season.

Of late I've been much more hands on in rating the pitchers than the position players. I'm very confident in my pitcher rankings. My position player rankings I'm less confident in, but there are only so many hours in the day, and because of that you'll see more position players moving around from week to week than pitchers.

No Honorable Mentions this week while I still work through the ballot.

1. Paul Molitor SP (n/e) - Just kind of snuck up on everyone because he was very good forever. Great base-runner, versatile fielder. Inability to stay healthy knocks him down a few rungs, but still a clear HoMer.

2. Dennis Eckersley SP/CL (n/e) - Even though his relief pitching made him more famous, he actually had 55% of his Pennants Added from 1975-86. He's basically Ellis Kinder and Firpo Marberry, combined into one career. Or if you want to go with starter/closer combos, how about Howard Ehmke AND Tom Henke (and their names match too!). Henke was better as a reliever (154 DRA+ to 140), but Eck threw more innings, both seasonally (adjusted for leverage) and totally, so their value evens out.

3. Rick Reuschel SP (3) - This ranking surprises me a great deal. It's one thing to 'discover' an Ezra Sutton (I mean as a group, not that I discovered him first or anything) who played 130 years ago. But Rick Reuschel was there, right before my very eyes. He pitched in the World Series for my favorite team when I was turning 9 years old. And I never had a clue he was this good.

My Pennants Added system, which account for fielding support, parks, bullpen support, etc.; shows him as the #30 pitcher eligible, right behind Dazzy Vance, Ed Walsh and Amos Rusie, and ahead of Jim Bunning, Sandy Koufax and Juan Marichal.

He isn't peakless either. His 1977 was every bit as valuable as Bunning's 1966. Bunning definitely has him beat in years 2-5, but Reuschel makes it up with more quality in the back end. I get them essentially equal, Reuschel was a little better inning for inning, Bunning had a higher peak, but in the end they even out. I have Reuschel with a 115 DRA+ over 3745 tIP, Bunning was 113 over 3739 tIP. This is where I would have ranked Bunning, who sailed into the Hall of Merit, I have no issue putting Reuschel here.

Even when I take my numbers, but filter them through a Bill James-type NHBA scoring system (that heavily focuses on peak), Reuschel still comes out as the #46 starter eligible, in a group with guys like Jim Palmer, Noodles Hahn, Eddie Rommel, Tex Hughson, Clark Griffith and Whitey Ford. Hahn, Rommel and Hughson all had very nice peaks.

Using a JAWS scoring system, he comes out as the #35 starter, in a group with Wes Ferrell, Jack Quinn, Palmer, Stan Coveleski, Red Faber and Urban Shocker.

I am saying that Reuschel was every bit as good as the Jims, Palmer and Bunning. The only difference between Palmer and Reuschel is park and defense. Reuschel's 1977 was better than any season Palmer had. Palmer, like Bunning was better than Reuschel in the 2-5 best seasons, but by less than a win a year, and over the course of their careers, Reuschel was better, 115 DRA+ to Palmer's 113 (in a similar number of innings, Palmer had 3781 tIP. He had the one great year, and was very good from 1973-81 and 1985, 1987-89. That's a record that not a lot of pitchers can match.

4. Jack Quinn SP (4) - I'm giving him credit for 1916-18 where he was pitching (quite well) in the PCL after the Federal League went belly-up. He gets a big leverage bonus for his nearly 800 IP of relief work at a LI of 1.26. Without any PCL credit I still have him between Bridges and Grimes.

5. Tommy John SP (5) - Tons of career value. I would probably be sick to my stomach if Jim Kaat (who did very well in the Veteran's Committee balloting this year) got in and John did not. On the surface (career W-L) they appear similar, but when you adjust for everything, they aren't close. I have John as similar to, but better than Burleigh Grimes - about 800 more translated IP, at a 106 rate instead of a 104 rate. That's more than enough to offset Grimes peak edge. I get John somewhere between Eppa Rixey/Red Faber and Grimes on the continuum. He's over the in/out line for me. I also give no extra credit for his poineering the surgery - someone had to be first.

6. Graig Nettles (6) - Moves up mostly based on how he does with Dan R's system. Would be higher, but the AL was weak relative to the NL throughout his career and that's not accounted for. Vacuum cleaner at 3B, one HR title, another runner-up. He was a better hitter than Brooksy, almost his equal with the glove. Almost as long of a career, and while he wasn't as good as Robinson, Brooks had plenty of room to spare. I had him too high, but still think he belongs.

7. Urban Shocker SP (7) - Vaulted in 1981, with 1918 war credit (he was having a great year), and an adjustment for the AL being much better than the NL during his time. He was a great pitcher, peak guys should really look closer at him. He'd be a no brainer without his illness, which should not impact a peak vote.

8. Phil Rizzuto SS (8) - Lost 3 prime years to WWII. Great defense, and a huge year in 1950 also. He looks even better than I realized with Dan's system and I'm moving him up according. His death has nothing to do with this, other than that I looked him over again, and I liked what I saw. RIP Scooter.

9. Tommy Bridges SP (9) - Unspectacular peak (although he would have won the 1936 AL Cy Young Award if it had been invented), but a lot of career value. War credit helps nudge him above Trout and Leonard. He could obviously still pitch when he left for the war, and was still good when he returned for a short time. I give him 2 years of credit at his 1941-43 level.

10. Gavy Cravath RF (10) - Either he was a freak of nature, or there's a lot missing. I vote for the latter. Check out his thread for deeper discussion of the specifics, including a great analysis from Gadfly. He's the kind of guy we were hoping to catch when we started this project.

11. Dave Concepcion SS (11) - Better than I realized, and was really hurt by the 1981 strike, which occurred during his best season (and a season where the Reds had the best record in baseball, but missed the playoffs). Still no Trammell or Ozzie, but a very good player indeed. We could do worse than induct him.

12. Bert Campaneris (12) - Also moves up this week. .470 OWP, in an era where the average SS was at .372. Long (9625 PA) career as well, and a good fielder (62 FRAA). System says to rank him ahead of Concepcion pretty clearly, but I haven't been able to bring myself to do it just yet.

13. Thurman Munson C (13) - Better than I realized - just a hair behind Freehan. Better career D, better career O, but Freehan played more and had the higher peak. Very, very close.

14. Andre Dawson CF/RF (14) - See his thread for more detailed comments. Essentially I think there's enough of a combination of peak/career (especially once full credit is given for 1981) to push him onto the ballot. I'm shocked to realize that Randolph was the better player, as both were among my handful of favorite players growing up.

15. Tommy Leach 3B/CF (15) - I was a big fan of his awhile back, then he faded. He's back now, in no small part because of Dan R's work.

Mandatory comments:

Pete Browning - would be by far our biggest mistake. Hack Wilson would be an equivalent electee. Please don't do this. Stieb or Charley Jones would be light years better as choices.

Roger Bresnahan - Currently #30 for me. Great hitter / catcher = tough combination to overlook.

Kirby Puckett - Loved to watch him play, but there's just not enough there. DanR's numbers show him similar to Rizzuto - before giving any war credit.

Bob Johnson - He's in the mix - but slides down when you deflate his numbers from WWII.

Tony Perez - Not mandatory this time, but he'll be back soon, so I'll leave the comment. In my top 50, but I don't see how anyone can vote for him over Ben Taylor.

Bucky Walters - Currently #26. Big years, good hitter for a pitcher, career kind of short though. Basically tied with Newcombe and Grimes.

Newbies:

Dennis Martinez - El Presidente is a lot closer to this ballot than I thought he'd be. He comes in just a little behind Grimes and Walters, a little ahead of Luis Tiant. Martinez was an outstanding pitcher from 1987-1995. His 3-year peak is from 1993-95. Age 38-40. This is the Jose Cruz of pitchers, so to speak. From 1987-95, he's got a 122 DRA+ and 2170 tIP. By comparison, Addie Joss's entire career is 1899 tIP with a 125 DRA+. Too bad it took him so long to get his act together.

Jimmy Key - One of my all-time favorites, won Game 6 of the 1996 World Series, the greatest day of my life so far. Heck of a career, one of the top 100 pitchers of all-time, though most probably don't realize it. Similar to Lon Warneke or Carl Mays.
   162. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: September 10, 2007 at 11:49 PM (#2518925)
Hey where's my ballot?? I know I posted it!
   163. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: September 10, 2007 at 11:49 PM (#2518926)
whew.
   164. Max Parkinson Posted: September 10, 2007 at 11:52 PM (#2518934)
2004 ballot

I tend towards the peak/prime end of this group, with about half of the value players can earn in my system afforded to their best 7-9 or less years. My basic valuations are based on how well a player performs relative to his competition, although I also make allowances for offensive position - I like to have leadoff hitters, and power hitters, and basestealers, and glove guys. One significant way in which I may deviate from the consensus here is that I prefer guys who excel in one (but certainly more is good) facet of the game, where people here like to root for the all-rounders, possibly because they've been influenced by James, and believe that those guys are not sufficiently represented in the Coop.

Being the best Hitter, or Power Hitter, or a superlative glove man means something to me that being pretty good at everything doesn't. Hence I don't see Jimmy Wynn as very worthy, but apparently enough of you all do. Also, I’m less impressed with offensive players whose main talent was walking than the group as a whole (yest obviously aside) – players like Darrell Evans and Ken Singleton are much lower for me than the consensus.

I am pretty confident in my rankings of hitters against other hitters, and pitchers against other pitchers, and then try my best to fit them together...

Oh, and I don't give war credit - to this point, it's kept only Pee Wee Reese and Joe Gordon out of my Hall of Merit relative to the group's inductees.

1. Dennis Eckersley

A middling-to-good SP HoM candidate gets a new job… and wow! The peak voter in me loves ’89-’92 (even if two of my favourite baseball moments involve him giving up 9th inning blasts…)

2. Pete Browning

I am now convinced that he would have been one of (if not THE) the best hitters in the ‘80s even if there was only one league. I have therefore minimized his AA penalty.

3. Paul Molitor

You know that a guy’s pretty much a no-brainer when the debate re: the position on his plaque is longer than most other threads.

4. Dick Redding

A strong early peak and longish career helps to overcome the lackluster middle parts of his career.

5. Dizzy Dean

Dean moved up for me when I realized that I was underrating peaks in pitchers. When Sandy Koufax can’t sniff my ballot, something’s wrong. The changes I incorporated helped Dean as well as Mendez.

6. John McGraw

If we were factoring in managerial success, he would have been in this hall as early as the ‘Coop. Alas, it’s looking tough for him here on playing alone. Not for me, though.

7. Gavvy Cravath

Another adjustment. Was the best RF in the game for a good 6 year stretch, with MVP-calibre seasons thrown in. I have resisted adding too much credit for MiL performance, but I couldn’t keep him from the ballot any longer.

8. Bucky Walters

A very good peak, and good hitter to boot. He’s the edge right now for elected pitchers.

9. (N)Ed Williamson

Between McGraw and Williamson, we could shore up the 3B drought pretty quick.

10. Ben Taylor

A long career, great glove 1B who played between the ABC boys and Gehrig/Foxx. If we need to fill a positional gap, here’s your man.

11. George Burns

Maybe I’m crazy, but if he had put up the exact same numbers, and been an average CF as opposed to a terrific LF (that is, no change to his talent or performance, just what was written on the lineup card), I think he’d either be in already, or would have been before Roush.

12. Bobby Veach

Someone here (DanG?) used to post lists of top OPS+ by time period. Of the 1900-1920 group, the only unelected members of the top 20 are Cravath (no. 1), Veach and Bresnahan….

13. Tony Perez

Good player – too bad knowing Joe Morgan doesn’t get him bonus points here.

14. Luis Tiant

For me, he’s just outside in/out line. I wouldn’t cry if he makes it or he doesn’t.

15. (and new to my ballot) Don Newcombe

While I don’t give war credit for Korea, I believe that he would have contributed earlier than he did if not for the colour line. Alas, if he could have just got two more outs in his most famous outing, none of us would have ever said the name Bobby Thomson.

Others of Note:

Bresnahan – I used to have to post this a lot, and now he’s crept back to the top 10. I give catchers playing time bonuses to try and mitigate the time lost due to the demands of the position. I think that I’m doing a good job, as my PHoM has as many catchers as any position other than SS and LF. Recall that many of his good offensive years came as an OF – he doesn’t get playing time bonuses in those years from me. Maybe he does from some of you….Even in 1908, a great year for him – he’s not one of the top 5 hitters in the game, and that’s after adding 25% to his numbers! If I add much more, every catcher who wasn’t Bill Bergen is an all-time great (yes, that last sentence was hyperbole).

Also, he was no great shakes defensively. That said, even if he was average defensively – he still doesn’t get close to a ballot. I’ve got him much closer to Johnny Kling and the rest of the catcher cohort that he was admittedly the best of, than I do to the HoM and PHoM catchers.

Johnson – In the ‘30s along with Klein and Hack Wilson.

Puckett – I was surprised to find how low my system ranked him. The bonus that he gets for dragging two teams to World Series titles still only gets him into the ‘40s.
   165. Max Parkinson Posted: September 10, 2007 at 11:54 PM (#2518948)
'Zop:

I hope that the above comment goes to your concerns re: Rajah. If not, please let me know (either here or through email), if you would like me to expand on why I disagree with you on RB's value.

Thx
   166. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: September 10, 2007 at 11:59 PM (#2518959)
BTW, if Martinez went in, it would be with an Expos cap - despite the fact that as an Expos fan, I think of him more as an Oriole!

Orioles - 12.5 WAR in 1879 tIP
Expos - 32.7 WAR in 1771 tIP
Indians - 14.3 WAR in 621.3 tIP

That's right - he had more WAR with the Indians than with the Orioles - in 1/3 of the innings!

Aside from his 20 IP in 1976, he never had a year above a 98 DRA+ with the O's. In 1979, he had one of the most mediocre years ever, throwing a phenomenal 301.7 tIP with a 98 DRA+.

From 1983-86 he was entirely useless, racking up 0.3 WAR over 568 tIP.

Then the O's go and trade him for Rene Gonzales. He takes a 71% paycut to pitch for Montreal in 1987. At the age of 32, he becomes Addie Joss.

Pretty damn amazing career.
   167. sunnyday2 Posted: September 11, 2007 at 12:00 AM (#2518960)
>15. (and new to my ballot) Don Newcombe. While I don’t give war credit for Korea...

!?

Do you give credit for WWII?
   168. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 11, 2007 at 12:01 AM (#2518963)
The election is now over. Results will be posted at 10 PM EDT. Try not blabbing the results until then, too. :-)
   169. sunnyday2 Posted: September 11, 2007 at 12:01 AM (#2518965)
>1. R. Bresnahan- I think the electorate is grossly underrating him,

Not any more.
   170. sunnyday2 Posted: September 11, 2007 at 12:03 AM (#2518971)
#168 was NOT there when I wrote #169. ;-)

'Course it's not like 2/3 of us aren't tabbing anyway.
   171. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: September 11, 2007 at 12:03 AM (#2518975)
Yeah, I agree sunnyday - why would someone not give credit for Korean War service? That makes zero sense to me.
   172. jimd Posted: September 11, 2007 at 12:04 AM (#2518976)
Nothing against Pete Browning, I was just commenting that this appears to be the "substance abusers election".

Did Bresnahan use cocaine?


Actually, so what if he did? It was legal then.
   173. sunnyday2 Posted: September 11, 2007 at 12:12 AM (#2518998)
It just occurred to me. Docking McGwire for steroids is like docking Bresnahan for shinguards.
   174. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 11, 2007 at 12:21 AM (#2519029)
It just occurred to me. Docking McGwire for steroids is like docking Bresnahan for shinguards.


Not really. Anybody could use shin guards legally and according to baseball rules. IOW, there is a level playing field.

#168 was NOT there when I wrote #169. ;-)


Yeah, that's what they all say. :-D
   175. Max Parkinson Posted: September 11, 2007 at 12:27 AM (#2519048)
SD2,

I don't give war credit period. It just happens to be Korea in Newk's case. I mention that every ballot off the top.
   176. sunnyday2 Posted: September 11, 2007 at 01:11 AM (#2519126)
>Docking McGwire for steroids is like docking Bresnahan for shinguards.

>>Not really.

>>>It was legal then.
   177. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 11, 2007 at 01:49 AM (#2519286)
>>>It was legal then.


What was legal then, Marc? Steroids during McGwire's time?
   178. yest Posted: September 12, 2007 at 03:39 AM (#2520973)
maybe in Montreal
   179. Howie Menckel Posted: September 12, 2007 at 03:50 AM (#2520980)
"I don't give war credit period."

I'm speechless.

I assume blacks who played before and after the Negro Leagues heyday also are screwed (doubly)?
Dickey Pearce? Pete Browning?
Do only AL or NL stats count?
If not, where's the line?

I've seen a wide range of war adjustments that all have some merit, but zero?
I've gotta hear the logic. Help me out here.
   180. Paul Wendt Posted: September 12, 2007 at 05:28 PM (#2521464)
Max has covered this before. He once had some more eloquent company in David C. Jones, some would say strident. Some long past expressions of horror are probably in the devoted thread or the name may be easy to search here.
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