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Hall of Merit — A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best Monday, December 22, 20032004 Hall of Fame ballot discussionSome of you asked for a thread to discuss the 2004 ballot for the Hall of Fame, while we’re on vacation. Here you go! It was suggested to run a mock election using our system. If we do so, we shouldn’t just have players on the ballot as eligible. In keeping with our practice, we should consider ALL players not in the Hall of Fame today. Putting together a 15-player ballot with that system would be great. To make sure no one is missed, we should nominate players for the ballot. I’d immediately nominate the HoMers that aren’t in the Hall of Fame: Ross Barnes, Bill Dahlen, Jack Glasscock, George Gore, Paul Hines, Cal McVey, Hardy Richardson, Joe Start, Ezra Sutton and Deacon White. I’d also nominate players that have been erased from BBWAA eligibility guys like Bobby Grich, Craig Nettles, Lou Whitaker, Joe Torre, Bill Freehan, Ron Santo and Ron Guidry, to name a few. A composite ballot of these players, and others that I’m not remembering off the top of my head would be fascinating. JoeD has the Imperial March Stuck in His Head
Posted: December 22, 2003 at 09:15 PM | 40 comment(s)
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1. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: December 22, 2003 at 10:30 PM (#520389)C-Torre Freehan Simmons Parrish Schang Munson. So far so good, best of the rest: Charlie Bennett
1B-McVey Start Allen Cash. How about: Will Clark, Keith Hernandez, Don Mattingly
2B-Barnes Richardson Grich Whitaker Randolph Doyle. Next: Ryne Sandberg (!), Joe Gordon
SS-Dahlen Glasscock Stephens. Best of the rest: Trammell
3B-Sutton White Nettles Santo DaEvans Elliott Hack. Also: Paulie (!), Ken Boyer, Heinie Groh
LF-BJohnson Magee Sheckard Minoso. And: Jim Rice, Harry Stovey
CF-Gore Hines RSmith Oliver. I would add: Dawson, Dale Murphy
RF-DwEvans. That's easy, add: Oliva and Parker
SP-Guidry and Blyleven. That's plenty. (Just kidding, one could go wild here): Caruthers, Bond, Mullane, Bucky Walters, Stieb, McCormick, Ferrell, Morris, Kaat
RP-None. Gotta have: Eck, Goose, Bruce, Quiz and Lee Smith
I might suggest we just go ahead and incorporate the official 2004 ballot into ours. Or else not have an official ballot, it's gettin' pretty looooong.
So, whatever.
For fun, let's limit it to the 2004 BBWAA ballot, as if we were the writers. In fact, let's see if our arguably limited number of voters can elect someone, using the same rules the BBWAA has (i.e. 75% for election). With 44 voters (the 1916 HOM election) a candidate needs 33 votes to make it.
Thanks to Patrick for taking the reins. Speaking as a Minnesotan and not-quite-lifelong Twins fan (they didn't exist when I was a kid), concerning '87, Patrick, tough ****. Kent Hrbek's slam in game 6 (and Kirby's walk-off in game 6 '91) are still the two great thrills of this sports fan's life. And yet, BTW, I can't quite get Mollie and Bert into the top of my ballot, heavily weighted toward peak value as it is. This ballot has not been vetted nearly as much as my HoM ballots, so please...
1. Dennis Eckersley--lots better than Rollie
1. Ross Barnes
1. Blyleven - Most underrated player ever! My second favorite pitcher (see below)
1. Paul Molitor
1. Paul Molitor. Neat career - went from top of order sparkplug in Milwaukee to solid run producer in Toronto.
1. Molitor
<b>1. Ryne Sandberg
Eck 607 236 196 161 136 130 127 106 104 98 93
2) Molitor: Long career of sustained quality is HoF-caliber in my book. Don't let the years at DH diminish his value - he was a damn good fielder for many a year at a few demanding positions.
3) Bert Blyleven: If he had been fortunate enough to have started his career during the pitcher-friendly sixties (and had a little more offense backing him up), he would have been an easy first-ballot selection. Hell, if he had a measly 13 more wins, the BBWAA's perception of him would be greatly changed.
4) Trammell: Being compared to Ripken (and the power shortstops of now) is unfair. Arguably top-ten at his position should be more than enough for the dumb-dumbs voting.
5) Eckersley: Hard to figure his overall value out, but I think the whole package has merit and worth for the Hall.
6) Gossage: Long, brilliant career as a relief guy (when being a relief pitcher was more "fireman" than closer) should be enough for induction.
Number seven should be Lou Whitaker, but we know the deal with that.
Keith Hernandez is borderline, but close to the outside-looking-in section. To a lesser extent, the same could be said about Dawson, Murphy, Rice, Parker, Sutter, L. Smith and Mattingly. While I wouldn't advocate any of these gentleman for induction as of right now, I wouldn't cry about it.
I'm not fully decided about Dave Steib; the exigencies of being a pitcher during the seventies and eighties lead me to believe he probably belongs. He might (hopefully) wind up on a future faux ballot. I am confident enough to say he's a better choice than the John's, Morris', etc.
Try this instead:
He might (hopefully) wind up on a future faux ballot. I am confident enough to say he's a better choice than the Johns, Morrises, etc.
Overall, it is an attempt to get away from the mindless use of saves to evaluate relievers. A closer can rack up a lot of saves with little leverage.
As for Eck's "obvious domination," if you mean his peak as a closer vs. Goose's peak years as a closer, I just don't see it. Check the ERA+ scores again in post #36. Goose was better in seasons #2 through 11, every single one of them. Eck's saves (compared to Goose's) are 100% an artifact of how he was used. Take a look at Hoyt Wilhelm for the greatest relief pitcher of them all. Not a whole lot of saves per inning.
Now note also that I have Eck #1 on my ballot and Goose #5. Eck gets credit for his career as a starter. But I'm just trying to pull Goose along, too. Any of you who are younger and didn't see him, he was Eck's match in his prime. He was the 230 pound version of Mariano Rivera. (But Dan Quisenberry's peak was very competitive with Eck and Goose, more so that Sutter IMO.)
Can somebody cite the study that was published here at primer during '03 (I think) which as far as I am aware is the leading study of the subject of reliever leverage? I would guess the author is probably posting here on HoM but I can't remember who it was.
185-, _975 - 185-, _975 (10) - Gossage, 1975 & 77-85 (same)
1) Paul Molitor
2001 1-2, 3.38, 27 saves, 45.1 IP WARP 2.8 WS 8
But of course. :-) Third year now.
BTW, MLB.com has their HoF project for a few more days, too.
Now I'm tempted to actually forgo voting in the STATLG-L balloting this year... sorry, that should be the "real" balloting, shouldn't it? My mistake. I wouldn't want to endanger your obviously solid grip on reality.
I just assumed he was joking when I first read it. Now I'm not so sure anymore.
(NOTE : I think Rice is a borderline candidate. My opinion on Rice changes every ten minutes.)
1 - Unimpressive career totals
Rice's best career total is his 382 home runs, which place him 45th all-time. But Rice had fewer career home runs than Dwight Evans, Graig Nettles, Joe Carter, Dale Murphy, and Darrell Evans (to name a few), all of whom had far more defensive value than Rice.
2 - Park Factors
Rice's impressive numbers need to be adjusted downwards for the extremely friendly confines of Fenway Park.
3 - More impressive and directly comparable candidates ahead of him
Rice needs to wait for some of the comparable candidates to make it, especially among outfielders. Andre Dawson had much more career value than Rice. Dave Parker had a better peak than Rice, and a higher career value. Dale Murphy the same (though Rice is close to Murphy in career value). That's three guys who rate more or less ahead of Rice, yet none of those three is a particularly popular candidate.
4 - Poor postseason performance
A small but important factor.
I think there are others, that's all I could think of right now.
Year PA LI Leveraged PA (PAxLI)
Yeah, and he would have been the best hitter in baseball too, if it weren't for the fact that a guy in the other league, name of Dave Parker, wasn't better. Just as he had been better in 1977. And would be better in 1979 and 1980. Just as he had been in 1975 and 1976.
Parker started to have knee problems, bad ones, after that and Rice passed him for a while. Then by '84-'85, Parker was better again and stayed that way for good, except for a great year from Rice in '86.
Using Win Shares as a single-season measure, you must define peak in terms of *three* consecutive seasons, or fewer, in order to rank Jim Rice near the top among his extended contemporaries. See Singleton, Parker, Murray, Mattingly; Henderson, Murphy, Dawson. If 1981 is prorated to 162 games (for Murray, Henderson, and Dawson), then each of those players but Dawson slaughters Rice over five seasons, and Dawson beats him soundly.
Not Joe Carter --or Jack Clark, who never played five consecutive seasons.
The 1987 Indians are a useful object lesson in the importance of team OBP and the bad synergy of stacking several low-OBP sluggers (or semi-sluggers) together in the order. The Indians that year had a bad offense, finishing 3rd from the bottom of the league. Of the 9 players in the lineup, 4 of them (Brett Butler, Julio Franco, Brook Jacoby, and Pat Tabler) had OBP's that were .037 to .067 better than the league average of .332. The other 5, which includes the first baseman and 2/3 of the outfield (Joe Carter, Mel Hall, Cory Snyder, Bernazard/Hinzo, Bando/Dempsey/Allanson) had OBP's at least .023 worse than league average. It's fairly clear that 3 or 4 of the low-OBP hitters were stuffed back-to-back in the middle of the order. Carter was probably the first of the low-OBP bloc, so he had Butler and probably Franco in front of him. Carter's .264/.304/.480 with 32 HR then resulted in a team-leading 106 RBI. Brook Jacoby was by far the best hitter on the team that year - .300/.387/.541 - but he must have been batting 6th or 7th in the order behind the low-OBP bloc. Jacoby also had 32 HR but a pathetic 69 RBI. The cross-league comparison is Jacoby versus Tim Wallach. Jacoby .300/.387/.541 in 155 G, 32 HR, 69 RBI. Wallach .298/.343/.514 in 153 G, 26 HR, 123 RBI.
It matters who's batting in front of you.
Cobra 148 132 144 166 141 116
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