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Hall of Merit
— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best

Monday, October 15, 2007

2006 Ballot (Elect Three)

Prominent new candidates: Will Clark, Albert Belle, Orel Hershiser and Dwight Gooden.

Top-ten returnees: Bob Johnson, Alejandro Oms, Reggie Smith, Bucky Walters, Cannonball Dick Redding, Kirby Puckett and Gavvy Cravath.

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 15, 2007 at 03:04 AM | 167 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 15, 2007 at 11:29 AM (#2576855)
I use Win Shares as the base for my ranking system, though I am now using a modified version (any negative values are converted into zeroes) of BRAR, FRAR and PRAR for the NA.

I am integrating the conclusions made by DERA with Win Shares for all pitchers.

I do place (to a certain degree) domination at one's position during the player's era. That doesn't mean that domination-by-default will necessarily help you though (Gil Hodges may have been the best first baseman of his era, but he wont make my ballot).


1) Bus Clarkson-SS/3B (2): Looks like the best shortstop of the Forties, which is surprising to me. IMO, Eric would have to be totally off with his projections for Clarkson not to be near the top of everybody's ballot. Shave off 50 WS from his MLE and he still comfortably belongs.

2) Lee Smith-RP (3): Having his career occur during a major rethinking of his position really distorts his true value, IMO. All things equal, Gossage was better, but not that much better. Never the best for any one season, but consistently among the best for many a year.

3) Bucky Walters-P (4): The guy had a nice peak, fairly long career, and could hit. Best ML pitcher of 1939 (extremely close in 1940). Best NL pitcher of 1940 and 1944.

4) Mickey Welch-P (5): Yeah, pitching was different back then, but he still distinguished himself regardless. Best major league pitcher for 1885.

5) Vic Willis-P (6): Willis pitched a ton of innings at an above-average rate for a long enough time for his era. Best major league pitcher for 1899. Best NL pitcher for 1901.

6) Will Clark-1B (n/e): The Thrill was legitimately great as his peak, but his career doesn't stand out among his contemporaries at first base to be an inner-circle HoMer. Still, he did enough to warrant induction. Best ML first baseman for 1988, 1989 and 1991. Best NL first baseman for 1992

7) Gavvy Cravath-RF (8): I buy the arguments for him. I'm giving him MLE credit for 1908-11 (not full credit for '08, since he did play some in the majors that year). Possibly would have been the best ML right fielder for 1910. Best NL right fielder for 1913 and 1914. Best ML right fielder for 1915, 1916, and 1917.

8) Alejandro Oms-CF (9): Thanks to Chris' work, another gem has been uncovered. He should have gathered more and more support over the next few "years," but... Curse this electorate! ;-)

9) Bob Elliott-3B/RF (10): Best third baseman of the Forties. He could hit, field, and didn't have a short career when compared to other third basemen throughout history. Best ML third baseman for 1943, 1944, 1947, 1948, and close in 1950. Best NL third baseman for 1949 and 1950.

10) Hugh Duffy-CF/LF/RF (11): "Only" the third best centerfielder of the '90s, but that position was very strong for that decade. Best major league right fielder for 1890 and 1891. Best major league centerfielder for 1892, 1893 and 1894.
   2. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 15, 2007 at 11:30 AM (#2576856)
11) Pie Traynor-3B (12): Best white third baseman of his time (though J. Wilson and Beckwith was better). Best major league third baseman for 1923 (Beckwith was better), 1925, 1927, 1929 (Beckwith was better) and 1932.

12) Burleigh Grimes-P (13): Pitched for a long time behind crappy teams and defenses. Not a bad peak, too Best NL pitcher for 1921 and 1929.

13) Bobby Bonds (14): One of my favorites growing up as a kid. He could do it all. Made his debut on my 3rd birthday, which I believe means something. Best ML right fielder for 1970 (close in 1971). Best NL right fielder for 1971 and 1973.

14) Reggie Smith (15): Underrated since he could do everything well instead of being a specialist in one area. Best AL rightfielder for 1972. Close to being the best AL centerfielder for 1968. Best NL rightfielder for 1974.

15) Tommy Bridges-P (n/e): Back on my ballot after many decades. I'm giving him WWII credit. Still not sure about post-major league credit for him, though. Never the best in his league, but consistently of high quality throughout his career.

Puckett, Redding and Johnson all exist in my top-40, but they just fall short.
   3. rawagman Posted: October 15, 2007 at 11:59 AM (#2576861)
Use a sort of peak-over career number that measures ink by playing time with a strong preference for players who had good in-season durability. Combined with rate stats and a glove measurement, I feel this gives me both context for what the player actually achieved versus what the league around him was able to do. I think it also may be time to go a little more into my baseball philosophy, which may help in clarifying my rankings. I don't believe in the single stat theory of baseball, meaning I don't use WS or WARP in my rankings. Essentially, I follow this as I think a large percentage of what contributes to baseball is not counted. Well, no one has ever counted them as statistics as far as I've ever heard. This includes things like manager's prerogative, and actions that would require a historical pbp analysis currently unavailable. I search for what I consider "total ballplayers", guys who can do it all. I believe in positional representation and abhor the thought process that says that relievers were all failed starters and 2B are all failed SS, etc... A team cannot win without a 2B, nor without someone in LF. When I look at a player's career, I try to ask myself how I would feel about him as his manager - would his presence require special tactics to protect him, or is he completely reliable. I hope it can be seen by my rankings that the "reliable" players generally rise above the ones with clear holes in their games. There are always exceptions, but this is what I have. The stats I look at to get here tend to be traditional and rate, both offensive and defensive. Contemporary opinion also helps.

I've been convinced that we have been underrating pitchers in general. Reading Shades of Glory (well researched but not as well written) has convinced me that my earlier instincts with Dick Redding were correct. I think I was docking him too much for his later poor performance, while I now beleive that in a better world, he would no longer have been pitching in the majors by then anyway. His earlier peak was enough. Will Clark takes Wade Boggs' place at the top of my ballot. He was a complete player. Albert Belle seems to me to be another in that line of top power hitting left fielders that don't offer much else to a team and, in some places detract. Just off ballot for now. Gooden/Hershiser get to stay in my consideration set, but without any chance of sniffing my ballot. Clearing out my HOM , not-PHOM this week, I am bumping the Evans's up a touch.


1)Will Clark - His snub by the BBWAA shocked me. Not that I expected him to be elected, but a first year rejection of such magnitude was unthinkable. He belongs. (PHOM)
2)Hugh Duffy - Super peak, wonderful prime. Amazing bat, super glove. The epitomy of reliability. (PHOM)
3)Ben Taylor - Can't find the peak, but a better prime (through the roof), career and glove than Beckley. I think he may be the player most underrated by the electorate. (PHOM)
4)Tommy Bridges - He was really very good. A summary of a reevaluation of some of our backlog pitchers in my high backlog (Bridges, Gomez, Redding, Walters) Of those four, the white guys were all regulars for 10-11 seasons. Bucky and Lefty both had immense peaks, but I think that Lefty's non-peak years hold up better than Bucky's. Also, Lefty does not need any war discount. Dick Redding seems more similar to Walters in that his non-peak was not so impressive. His peak was still enough to leave in him solid backlog country. (I even put him in my PHOM back when I joined the project.) Tommy Bridges wins out. He had much greater consistency. He is to pitchers what Bob Johnson was to hitters, but more of a winner. We have been especially splintered as to the backlog pitchers, and I urge everyone to give Tommy Bridges a closer look. (PHOM)
5)Kirby Puckett - I have it mentioned that some HOM voters consider Puckett to be a mistake of the BBWAA. I see where that sentiment may be emanating from, but I do beleive that his election was earned A wonderful ballplayer. (PHOM)
6)Lefty Gomez - looking at him in any single way hurts him. Looking at him kaleidoscopically has him as the best available pitcher in my eyes (PHOM)
7)Bus Clarkson - A new defensive readjustment moves to the cusp. (PHOM)
8)Dale Murphy - A player that my system loves. At his best he dominated. That refers to the years between 1979-1988. That's a 10 year prime with a very high peak. Also demonstrated very good fielding ability. Could easily move up my ballot. (PHOM)
9)Vern Stephens - Will we look at Nomar down the road like we look at Vern now? Great bat, good glove. (PHOM)
10)Gavvy Cravath - No longer the worst fielder in my top 120 candidates (Frank Howard). Probably still the best hitter, though. (PHOM)
11)Bob Johnson - I don't know why it took me this long. Great all-round LF. Very durable. (PHOM)
12)Tony Oliva - Career not as short as I thought. Had solid durability for the seasons he was around for. A world class hitter. (PHOM)
13)Alejandro Oms - This is a serious jump for him in my rankings (nearly 60 places). I was counting him as a RF only. The hybrid time gets him here, just above Reggie Smith. This could change. Right now I have provisionally given him a career as a 50% CF, which may be a little low. This week's discussion forces me to reevaluate him once more and he makes my ballot for the first time as well as my PHOM. (PHOM)
14)Dick Redding - One of the toughest for me to accurately place. I now think his teens peak was all he needed. (PHOM)
((14a)Darrell Evans)) (PHOM)
15)Bobby Veach - He did it all well. As complete a LF as is available today. (PHOM)
   4. rawagman Posted: October 15, 2007 at 12:02 PM (#2576863)
((15a)Dwight Evans)) (PHOM)
16)Bret Saberhagen - Just a little bit more valuable, on the whole, than Dizzy Dean - slightly lower peak, but a longer prime.
17)Dizzy Dean - Diet Sandy Koufax. 0 calories (career), no sugar (prime).
18)Orlando Cepeda - Going with my numbers. (PHOM)
19)Reggie Smith - Another challenge. Uncertainties about his defense keep him from challenging my top half. Moves back up a bit as the clouds pass and I see much to compare between R. Smith and J. Wynn. Rechecked the head to heaad between Smith and Jack Clark and I must admit that Smith is just a smidge better. Feasibly better than Al Oliver as well. One reader pointed out how his games per season compared with Tony Oliva's. I prefer looking at PA's. Oliva's prime consisted of 11 seasons. (64-71 +73-75). In that time, he averaged 609 PA/season. Reggie Smith's prime was 67-78. In that time he averaged 579 PA/season. His career OPS+ may have been brought up by part time play. Valuable, but I am not concerned with it. All that said and done, he will probably claim one of the final spots of my PHOM in these last few elections.
20)Al Oliver - I was surprised by the similarities between Oliver and Reggie Smith. Smith had the higher OPS+, but I fear it may be a bit hollow. Very convincing peak and a glove that scores quite well. Career length is nice as well.
((20a)Andre Dawson))
21)Albert Belle - Fits in rather nicely with the next two on this list.
22)Jack Clark - Marvelous hitter who had his uses in the field as well.
23)Jim Rice - This is, more or less, where the in-out line can be found.
24)Wally Berger - super-underrated
25)Don Mattingly - In the interest of my belief in a big hall for Cooperstown, I suppport Mattingly's induction. That said, for this project, he looks to be just the wrong side of the door.
26)Dan Quisenberry - I suppose I've decided that I value peak in a reliever over career totals. Mind you, if the guy has both...well, we'll see what happens with Goose in a few years.
27)Lee Smith - He didn't have the stellar peak of the two closers around him, but his prime outlasted them both. And his peak is really not that far below Sutter's, at least.
28)Bruce Sutter - Very curious to see if anyone else has him as their highest ranked reliever right now. Shorter career than the others, but when he was at his best, he was the best. That works for me.
29)Ernie Lombardi - defense was below average, but not quite horrible
((29a)Jimmy Wynn))
30)Ron Guidry - I love a dominant pitcher. I don't think it's necessarily correct to view pitchers and hitters in the same light and I value a strong peak (I mean really strong) for pitchers more than for hitters (prefer a steady, all round type there). Similar to, but not quite the equal of, Lefty Gomez, one of my inner circle of best friends.
31)Al Rosen - One more season in prime, and he is top 10
32)Mickey Welch
((32a)Jim Bunning))
((32b)Billy Pierce))

33)Sparky Lyle - The biggest surprise of my remodeled reliever system. I don't look at postseason heroics so much, but for those who give plaudits for Fingers' work, check out Sparky. Great peak, very consistent.
34)Lance Parrish - SOlid all round catcher. Proud member of the HoVG. Not quite the HOM though.
35)Ron Cey - I remember his late Topps cards. Lots of very small print on the back. He compares favourably to the other eligible 3Bs. I'd still take Rosen's monster peak over his steady production, but it's close.
36)Norm Cash - Too much in one year - and that was not the best year for an everlasting peak, for a number of reasons.
((36a)Joe Gordon))
((36b)Dobie Moore))

37)Addie Joss - ERA/+ and WHIP are great, but why so little black ink?
((37a)Cupid Childs))
38)Fred Dunlap - Very short career. Very good, too.
((38a)Rollie Fingers))
39)Bucky Walters - Very similar to Pierce in overall picture - but built differently.
40)Don Newcombe - big beneficiary of pitcher's fielding analysis.
41)Tommy John - I think I like his overall picture just a smidgen more than Sutton's.
((41a)Don Sutton))
42)Luis Tiant - Undoubtedly a wonderful pitcher, but of the type who don't do that well in my system.I wasn't Billy Pierce's biggest fan, but I still liked Billy (and Marichal and Bunning) more than Tiant, so he starts off over here.
43)Tony Perez - I wasn't giving him the extra glove credit he earned through 5 seasons as the Reds' 3B. Still, no peak. As far as 1B go, I have Cepeda up higher because of his very nice peak and his not too short career as a regular. Ben Taylor suffers from a lack of documented stats. The stats there show that he could flat out mash the ball by dead-ball standards. Contemporaries say his glove was the best they had ever seen at 1B. Very apt, in this year of the Hernandez discussion. How much as a scoop worth? I think it's worth alot. I maintain that while a below average defensive 1B can cause little harm, an above average glove at 1B will provide a hefty bonus to the team lucky enough to employ one.
44)Fred Carroll - I give him around 1.5 seasons prime MiL credit. Better than Tenace. And better than Bresnahan given credit.
45)Larry Doyle - If only the glove were just a little better.
46)Phil Rizzuto
47)Cecil Travis - A very worthy extra credit case.
((47a)Jake Beckley))
48)Jimmy Ryan
49)Fred Lynn - Very similar to Duffy and Roush. Loses a lot of ground due to in-season durability concerns for an otherwise very strong candidate. Should be appealing to Browning/Chance/McGraw supporters who overlook that sort of thing.
((49a)Charlie Keller))
50)Cy Williams
51)Brett Butler - Some are calling him an equivalent to Kirby. I'm not seeing it. At Kirby's best, he was the best. At Butler's best, he was very good. My system will always take the guy who was the best for a stretch.
52)Amos Otis - The end of the centrefield run.
53)Dolf Camilli
54)Fielder Jones - I was missing on him a bit. A very apt first name. Solid bat as well.
((54a)Roger Bresnahan))
((54b)Pete Browning))

55)Steve Garvey - Something between Perez and McCormick. Nice size career, defensive value, could hit a bit - nothing overwhelming though.
56)Jim Bottomley - More than just a Frankie Frisch mistake.
57)George Kell
58)Frank McCormick - One of the finest 1B gloves in MLB hitter, and a decent hitter as well.
59)Bob Elliott - A little 3B run here
60)Graig Nettles - Among 3B, I figure he sits nicely here between Elliott and Bando. The better question to ask is if I am underrating 3B in general. I'll have to look into it a bit more later. Nettles is the best defensive 3B on my ballot. I think he was better than Boyer as well.
61)Sal Bando
62)Buddy Bell - Fits in rather nicely in this run of HOVG 3B.
63)Pie Traynor
64)Ed Williamson - I was missing a little something here.
65)Johnny Evers
66)Elston Howard
67)Joe Wood - If he had one more really good year as a pitcher, he'd be balloted
68)Bill Mazeroski
69)Tony Lazerri - Similar value to Maz. Accrued very differently.
70)Tommy Leach - I had missed him until now - I don't see the great love for him, though.
71)Vic Willis - A reexamination of all pitchers to include fielding ability causes an adjustment for Willis and a jump up the consideration set.
72)Thurmon Munson - see below.
73)Walker Cooper - some days, he reminds me of Quincey Trouppe
74)Johnny Pesky
75)Hippo Vaughn
76)Tom Henke - Not a long career, but the Terminator was one of the best closers in the game at his peak.
77)George Kell - Had him a bit too high earlier.
78)Cesar Cedeno - Found him to be comparable to Amos Otis and Jimmy Wynn in total value. Slots lower than those two in light of the shape of that value.
79)Vada Pinson - The ink really threw me for a twist. He looks like a good all-round CF, not great. But he amassed hefty ink totals for his generation. This may be a safe ranking.
80)Luis Aparicio - The low OPS+ masks his real effectiveness.
81)Tip O'Neill - The next Canadian.
82)Rocky Colavito
83)Chuck Klein - Drops like a rock. Great hitter Not much else. What separates him from Cravath. Not sure at the moment, really. I guess Cravath has those extra credit intangibles.
84)Denny Lyons
85)John McGraw - Hurt alot by my readjustment - no durability. Tsk, tsk.
86)George Van Haltren - Van Haltren is the big loser on the CF sweepstakes due to his poor fielding by my own accounts.
88)Rabbit Maranville
   5. karlmagnus Posted: October 15, 2007 at 01:29 PM (#2576908)
W. Clark and Belle close to bottom of ballot, neither exciting. McGraw olso on bottom of ballot as 3B was a glove position in 1890s and have reduced discount for short career. Hershiser bottom of consideration set, Gooden too short a career, so just off it.

1. (N/A-7-7-6-8-6-6-7-7-6-7-7-7-9-8-7-7-4-5-3-3-3-5-4-4-4-6-4-4-4-5-2-2
-4-4-3-3-5-4-3-2-2-3-5-2-2-1-2-1-2) Addie Joss. I’m now even more convinced I missed him earlier, and that adjusting innings down for dead ball pitchers is illegitimate. 2327 IP at an ERA+ of 142. 160-97 by age 30. If you assume the rest of his career would have been 1800 IP, 120-90 with an ERA+ of 110 (somewhat conservative, assuming you boost his last sick season, though pitchers didn’t last as long as they did later) then 50% credit would put him at 3227IP, 220-142, with ERA+ of 130. 25% credit puts him at 2777 IP, 190-120, with ERA+ of 136. Substantially better than Koufax. OPS+20. Electorate needs to take him more seriously.

2. (N/A-10-8-7-6-4-3-3-5-9-7-8-6-4-4-4-6-4-5-6-5-4-6-7-6-5-5-6-7-5-5-4-
4-5-4-6-4-4-5-4-4-5-4-4-6-5-5-5-6-7-5-5-6-7-6-5-5-7-5-5-5-6-3-4-7-6-4-4-6-5-4-3-3-4-6-3-3-2-3-3-4) Eddie Cicotte. Only 208-149 and an ERA+ of 123, but 3223 IP, more than Waddell and should get about 25% of the bonus for the 300-win career he should have had (he was, after all, a knuckleballer, who tend to peak late.) Much better than the 20s glut – only loses to Welch on longevity – Newhouser a close comp, but Cicotte had a longer career. Successfully cursed Red Sox AND White Sox for over 8 decades!

3. (N/A-10-9-8-10-11-10-13-12-14-N/A-15-14-13-12-11-10-10-11-9-9
-10-11-10-10-10-11-11-10-9-10-7-8-11-10-8-8-10-9-5-4-4-5-7-4-4-3-4-4
-5) Ernie Lombardi. Up a bit more; we’re forgetting him. Berra closely comparable Berra. 2137 hits, normalized to a 130 game season, and an OPS+ of 125 makes him a little better than Schang, but some of it was during the war years and he fielded badly. TB+BB/PA .492, TB+BB/Outs .719., the ratio between the two very low because of strikeouts, I assume. Plus a great nickname!

4. (N/A-14-15-14-13-14-15-14-15-14-15-15-13-12-13-10-11-13-12-10-
11-12-11-6-5-5-6-8-5-5-4-5-5-6) Vern Stephens. Short career – only 1859 hits, but comparing him to Reese he was much better, and not far short of Doerr. TB+BB/PA .508, TB+BB/Outs .756. OPS+ 119 Best season 1944, however. Sliding up ballot.

5. (N/A-9-8-8-9-10-8-10-9-8-7-8-11-11-10-10-10-11-11-10-9-11-12-
11-14-13-11-13-13-13-13-12-11-14-13-12-11-11-12-10-10-11-12-11
-11-11-13-13-11-10-11-8-9-12-11-9-10-11-12-8-7-7-9-10-6-7-5-8-7-7) Wally Schang. When you normalize his career to 130 game seasons for the first 18 years, as I do for catchers, he gets to 1941 hits, more than Groh at an OPS+ of 117, very similar. Furthermore, TB+BB/PA=.455, TB+BB/Outs=.728, also significantly better than Groh, over very close to the same period. And he was a catcher, more difficult than 3B.

6. (N/A) John McGraw. 1309 hits is lousy, but he was a 3B which is equivalent to 2B today, so OPS+ of 135 is about 150, which puts him significantly above Hack Wilson. TB+BB/PA .496, TB+BB/Outs.924

7. (N/A-12-10-12-10-11-10-7-7-8-9-7-9-13-11-10-11-12-12-11-11-11-
12-12-11-11-12-13-12-15-14-12-14-11-10-11-11-10-12-11-10-9-9-
10-8-8-9-10-9-8-8-10-10-9-8-9-6-7-10-9-7-7-9-8-7-6-6-8-9-9-10-8-10-8
-8) Sam Leever. Pity he wasn’t able to start at the normal time; 2 more years would have made him a NB. Only 2660 innings, but was blocked till 27 by the one-league 1890s and having a steady job as a schoolteacher. Believe he needs to be looked at seriously by others, and included in pitcher analysis. Mild plus for high level of moral probity.

8. (N/A-12-11-11-13-14-11-12-11-12-10-10) Tommy John 288-231, 4710IP@111. Infinitesimally below Sutton, better than Kaat.

9. (N/A-11-12-11-11-12-13-14-12-15-15-15-15-N/A-15-N/A-13-14-13-14-11-11) Carl Mays Had slipped down too far. 3021 innings at 119, 207-126 and 83 OPS+ Others should look at him more closely.

10. (N/A-12)Bret Saberhagen. Short career, not enough wins, but what a quality! 167-117, 2563IP@126ERA+ 126 ERA+ is equal 52nd all-time; Bret’s up there.
   6. karlmagnus Posted: October 15, 2007 at 01:29 PM (#2576909)
11. (N/A-13-13) Elmer Smith Deduct 10% from Elmer's Western League 1890 and 1891 batting and slugging percentages we get 301/461 and 284/431 respectively. Comparing against the PL of 1890 gives an OPS+ of about 130, against the NL of 1891 gives an OPS+ of about 139. That gives him 14 years of full-time play; adjust those to 130 game seasons (which I did for 19th century players gives him about 2140 hits at an OPS+ of 128-129 plus a pitching record of about 1400IP at an ERA+ of 113 and a W/L of about 96-72. Elmer baby, you're on my ballot, albeit at the bottom of it. Only 97 years late.

12. (N/A-15-N/A-15-N/A-14-13-14-11-12-14-13-11-13-14-13-11-10-10-12-13-10-11-10-11-9-9) Frank Howard Very slightly better than Kiner – significantly longer career. Underrated by history, but down a little when I look at Belle. OPS+ 142 for 1774 hits. TB+BB/PA .546, TB+BB/Outs .805 in a pitchers’ park and era.

13. (15-14-11-12-10-9-6-8-7-7-6-7-6-3-3-3-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-5-4-2-3-2-3-3-
2-3-3-2-2-3-7-5-5-3-2-2-2-4-2-3-3-2-2-4-3-2-2-3-3-4-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-2-2-
3-2-2-3-2-2-4-2-3-2-2-4-2-2-2-4-3-3-3-4-2-2-2-2-N/A-15-N/A-15-N/A-14
-14) Mickey Welch. UER were 43.37% of total runs allowed for Mickey, compared to about 40% with all his HOM contemporaries except Galvin (who started earlier, anyway.) Hence his ERA+, his weakness anyway, overstates his value; in spite of 307-210 he was primarily an innings-eater. 4802IP. Will now be on and off ballot.

14. Will Clark A little better than Reggie Smith 2176 hits@138OPS+ TB+BB/PA.543 TB+BB/Outs.855

15. (N/A-15-N/A-15) Alejandro Oms. New MLE OPS+ of 125 moves him down a bit. Shorter career than Beckley, and not quite as valuable, but he was a darn good player nonetheless. Had fallen too far; put him just above Staub.

OFF BALLOT

16. (N/A-6-5-9-8-9-8-7-10-11-8-9-7-7-6-6-9-9-8-6-6-6-5-4-8-7-9-12-
N/A-14-13-15-N/A-14-15-14-15-15) Hugh Duffy. We don’t have enough Beaneaters! However he’s not quite as good as Elmer Smith. Will be back soon.

17. (N/A-13-12-13-13-12-14-15-12-13-11-11-N/A-11-9-12-12-N/A-15-15-N/A-14-N/A-15-13-12-14-15-12-13-12-13-N/A) George van Haltren. Had slipped too far at #44; we need more 90s stars, but he was significantly below Elmer Smith, either as hitter or pitcher.

18. (N/A-15-N/A-14-13-15-N/A) Rusty Staub. 2716 hits at OPS+124. TB+BB/PA .484, TB+BB/Outs .724. Not quite as good as Beckley, for not quite as long.

19. (N/A-12-N/A) Fred Lynn. Underrated, considerably better than Rice or Hernandez. 1960 hits at 130, but bonus for playing CF. TB+BB/PA .531, TB+BB/Outs .791. Lovely player to watch, and absolutely top-drawer at his best.

20. Albert Belle 1726 hits @143. Short career, not quite Frank Howard but Frank was a little high. TB+BB/PA .597 TB+BB/Outs .896

21. Reggie Smith Could be another Red Sox cap, but not quite. 2020 hits@137 but quite close to W. Clark as was a CF. TB+BB/PA .537 TB+BB/Outs .810

22. (N/A-14-N/A-15-13-15-N/A-15-N/A) Luis Tiant 229-172. 3486 IP at 114. ERA+ a little low, but W/L good. He’s not top tier, but just a little better than Pierce. Big psychic plus for Red Sox affiliation. Looking at Reuschel, a little overplaced so have slipped him down.

23. (N/A-13-15-N/A-15-15-N/A) Vic Willis Had slipped too far.

24. (N/A) Lee Smith 71-92 +478 saves. 1289IP @132. I find these relievers difficult to rank because their usage changes; with the exception of Wilhelm I don’t see any of them as clearly IN. (Rivera very short career in IP terms so far, and ERA+ declining as we speak.) Still, Lee Smith was better than Fingers and I think Gossage, though that one’s close.

25. Gavvy Cravath 1134 hits@150. Add 50% to career and deduct 5 points for more years in early career makes him 1699 hits @145, still a very short career, but comparable to Hack. TB+BB/PA .527, TB+BB/Outs .835.

26. (N/A-7-13-11-13-14-14-14-N/A-15-15-15-N/A-14-15-15-15-N/A-
14-N/A-15-15-N/A-15-N/A-14-N/A-15-14-N/A) Hack Wilson. TB+BB/PA = .588, TB+BB/Outs = .954, OPS+ 144. (he does appear to have known about BB, unlike some others.) Very short career, but quality too good to ignore.

27. Rick Reuschel. 214-191, 3548IP@114. Tough to put him far from Tiant, who had a better W/L, but I now realized I was overvaluing Tiant a bit because of Red Sox affiliation.

28. (N/A-14-14-N/A) Chuck Klein. Shortish career but very good one. Similar player to Beckwith, beats Hack on career length, but Hack was better. TB+BB/PA .575, TB+BB/Outs .909, but only 2076 hits. OPS+137.

29. Indian Bob Johnson. Very similar career to Klein but infinitesimally less good. TB+BB/PA .569, TB+BB/Outs .890., only 2051 hits. OPS+138

30. Brian Downing. 2099 hits at 122 plus he caught about 1/3 of his games. TB+BB/PA.487 TB+BB/Outs.741

31. Tony Perez. Close to Staub but below him. 2732 hits at 122. TB+BB/PA .502, TB+BB/Outs .731.
32. Bill Madlock.
33. Toby Harrah
34. Ben Taylor.
35. Jim Kaat
36. Orlando Cepeda
37. Norm Cash
38. Jim Rice
39. (N/A-12-12-14-N/A) Tony Lazzeri
40. Cesar Cedeno
41. (N/A-14-N/A-15-N/A) Sam Rice
42. Lou Brock
43. Mickey Vernon
44. Thurmon Munson
45. Sal Maglie.
46. (N/A) Burleigh Grimes.
47. (N/A) Heinie Manush
48. (N/A-9-10-10-13-N/A) Mike Tiernan
49. Bob Elliott
50. (N/A) Dick Lundy
51. (N/A-9-12-11-14-13-14-12-11-12-13-11-11-9-9-13-14-12-14-14-N/A) Levi Meyerle.
52. Jack Clark. As good as Reggie Smith but not for as long. 1826 hits@137OPS+, TB+BB .529, TB+BB/Outs .845
53. (12-15-N/A-11-10-12-10-10-9-8-11-12-10-10-8-8-14-15-13-15-15-N/A) Harry Wright.
54. Dennis Martinez 3999IP@106, 245-193. A lesser Kaat.
55. Jimmy Key 2591IP@122. 186-117. 400IP more and he’d be Dave Stieb, but Stieb was just off the main ballot – too short a career. You have to be Pedro or Saberhagen if you’re career is this short.
56. Dave Parker.
57. (N/A-10-9-8-7-6-7-8-5-12-10-10-N/A-10-8-11-11-N/A) Jimmy Ryan
58. Gene Tenace
59. Kiki Cuyler
60. Deacon McGuire
61. Jerry Koosman.
62. Boog Powell
63. Ken Singleton.
64. Bucky Walters 198-160, 3104IP at 115 certainly doesn’t make the ballot, but should be on the consideration set, so here he is. Less than Tiant or Reuschel..
65. Sal Bando.
66. Jim Fregosi.
67. Jack Quinn
68. Tony Mullane
69. Ron Cey
70. Pie Traynor
71. Jim McCormick
72. Dick Redding. My punt is 3200 innings at 114 ERA+ for a record of 207-159, i.e. same quality as Chris but a little shorter. About here looks right – a little below Grimes (longer career) and Maglie (better quality.)
73. Joe Judge
74. Spotswood Poles.
75. Buddy Bell.
76. Larry Doyle
77. Kirby Puckett 2304 hits @124. TB+BB/PA .498 TB+BB/Outs .738 Overrated badly by the HOF; 5 adjusted OPS+ points short of Cepeda, who’s below the ballot.
78. Curt Simmons
79. Waite Hoyt.
80. Harry Hooper.
81. Vada Pinson
82. Gil Hodges
83. Jules Thomas.
84. Rico Carty.
85. Wilbur Cooper
86. Bruce Petway.
87. Jack Clements
88. Frank Tanana
89. Graig Nettles.
90. Don Mattingley.
91. Orel Hershiser 204-150, 3130 IP@112. Not quite enough
92. Bill Monroe
93. Herb Pennock
94. Chief Bender
95. Ed Konetchy
96. Al Oliver
97. Darryl Strawberry.
98. Jesse Tannehill
99. Bobby Veach
100. Chet Lemon.
101. Lave Cross
102. Tommy Leach.
103. Tom York
   7. DL from MN Posted: October 15, 2007 at 03:33 PM (#2577053)
2006 Ballot

An odd ballot as I shift over to using DanR's numbers entirely for hitters. I am pitcher heavy but only because I see the HoM as pitcher light. We are trending toward 25% pitching in the Hall which is below the 30% in my PHoM and also below the representation of pitching in the HoF. I still hope to adjust the pitchers to a PRAR based on Dan R's replacement values rather than vanilla WARP1 but I don't anticipate that it will make a huge effect on their ranking v. their peers.

1) Luis Tiant - PRAA/PRAR career numbers have him equivalent with Bunning, Drysdale, Pierce. His value, like Reggie Smith, is spread out over a number of seasons due mainly to injury. Still, his peak and prime are as good as Stieb and his career is longer.
2) Tommy Bridges - We don't have many war era pitchers. I don't think Bucky Walters is the right guy partly because I don't trust Win Shares' approach to pitcher value.
3) Rick Reuschel - Not just a good pitcher but also a better fielder and hitter than most pitchers.
4) Bret Saberhagen - Saberhagen and Bridges both have fantastic PRAA but the other 3 listed above have more replacement value. For example, Saberhagen pitched almost 1000 fewer innings than Tiant.
5) Bus Clarkson - Highest rated position player. Was a 2 time NgL all-star in 1940 and 1949 with a hiatus for the war in between. Was a 2 time TxL MVP candidate in the 1950's. That's a long career of high value. Terrific bat for an infielder - better numbers Willard Brown in head-to-head competition and played SS to Brown's indifferent outfielding. I think Willard Brown was a mistake but how do we elect Brown and dismiss a guy who hit as well but played infield?
6) Virgil Trucks - Has been a favorite of mine for years. Deserves war credit and there is some leverage in his later relief years also.
7) Tommy Leach - Unique cross-position player at 3B and CF. Good defender at both positions, long career especially for his era.
8) Graig Nettles - I agree with the discussion that Brooks is only a hair better than Nettles.
9) John McGraw - Only limited playing time keeps him from going higher on the ballot.
10) Will Clark - Well rounded hitter and fielder at 1B. Better player than Keith Hernandez. Makes my PHoM.
11) Reggie Smith - Suffers in the low-replacement metrics by reduced in-season playing time but was an above average player for more years than most. I give him 1 season of Japan credit.
12) Jim McCormick - Has been in the PHoM for a while. If we missed one early pitcher it's McCormick, not Welch. Good bat gets him onto the ballot.
13) Bob Johnson - He finally gets close to election and I drop him from elect-me to barely on ballot. He's still here though and I'd love to see him get elected this year.
14) Lee Smith - I see him as a better reliever than Fingers from a career perspective.
15) Ben Taylor - I'm giving him the final spot. He seems like another Keith Hernandez to me and his defense may have had a more important context.

16-20) Dick Redding (PHoM), Vic Willis, Urban Shocker, [Biz Mackey], Wally Schang, Norm Cash
24) Gavy Cravath - Great bat, bad glove
27) Phil Rizzuto - the small tidbit that he had malaria when he returned led me to throw out that year when it came to war credit and replace it with another. As a result he moves 2nd on my SS list behind Clarkson.
29) Alejandro Oms - Lower ceiling than contemporary Bob Johnson
41) Bucky Walters - WARP isn't a friend of Bucky Walters
45) Orel Hershiser
75) Dwight Gooden
115) Albert Belle - Career is too short, fielding is not good
117) Kirby Puckett - Career was just too short, peak wasn't high enough to compensate
   8. ronw Posted: October 15, 2007 at 03:34 PM (#2577055)
2006 Ballot – More shakeups this week. I have used a little of WS, WARP, RCAA, OPS+, and traditional stats, as well as reputation. I’m relying less on WS of late.

1. Dick Redding. If only we could have his teen’s peak clearly defined. I’m going to be disappointed if he never makes it to the HOM.

2. Will Clark No one says anything bad about the Thrill here in the Bay Area.

3. John McGraw I have had McGraw high before. Looking at the 3B on my ballot and available for election, I think that John J. just had the unique skill set that makes him Meritorious.

4. Larry Doyle. His hitting peak continues to impress me as unique.

5. Bob Johnson. Strong player every year of his 12-year career. At 38, did what a HOMer is supposed to do in a wartime league.

6. Tommy Leach. A good player from an underrepresented period.

7. Sal Bando. High enough late-60’s early 70’s peak that comparables like Bell and Cey seem to lack.

8. Dizzy Dean Seems a better choice than Walters. Outstanding from 1932-1937, and even when he was able to pitch for the rest of his career.

9. Reggie Smith. Nothing super spectacular, and some playing time issues.

10. George Van Haltren. Still some support from me.

11. Ken Singleton. Similar to Reggie Smith.

12. Tony Perez The longetivity is too much to ignore.

13. Ben Taylor. I think Ben was a smidgen better than Jake Beckley. I have no idea what KJOK has discovered to drop Taylor from the ballot.

14. Pie Traynor. Might be our most surprising omission to a 1950’s-1960’s sportswriter. Yes, he was a product of the batting average frenzy, but who is to say that he couldn’t become an OBP monster. Admittedly a fine fielder.

15. Graig NettlesWow, another third baseman! I guess that position seems a bit underrepresented. The direct comparison with Brooks did it for me.


LAST YEAR TOP 10 with comments

CF. Hugh Duffy. Dominant during the early 1890’s, but I think that is mostly Win Shares talking. Other than 1894, no impressive OPS+ or hitting WARP numbers.

CF. Alejandro Oms. Pretty solid, but doesn’t seem to have spectacular seasons.

SP. Bucky Walters. What a pitching peak, but too much of it is war years.

CF. Kirby Puckett. Not as impressed when WS receive less reliance.

RF. Gavvy Cravath. Not giving him as much minor league credit as some.
   9. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: October 15, 2007 at 03:36 PM (#2577058)
DL from MN--I hope using my numbers isn't what turned you off from MLB position players altogether!!
   10. Daryn Posted: October 15, 2007 at 03:55 PM (#2577091)
I value career over peak, but can be entranced by a great prime. I look at traditional statistics, ERA+, OPS+, Win Shares and Ink. Equally importantly, I read everything on this board and incorporate all that work into my analysis, whether it is RSI, MLEs, PenAdds, simple comparisons of candidates or anything else.

I am really lost after my top 12. I cannot make a distinction between the value of the players anymore at that level. If I had a choice, I’d only vote for 8 candidates, maybe only 3 if I had a little smaller Hall.

A record six disclosures necessary -- Johnson, Oms, Cravath, Smith and Puckett are in my second tier outfield glut with Puckett first (27th) and Smith last (41st). Walters is in my top 70, behind off ballot pitchers
Kaat, Morris and Dean.

1. Lou Brock – I think the post season value and the tremendous speed puts him ahead of the similar long-career peakless Beckley. OCF sums up his case in post 126 of the Brock thread. Number of unelected Hall of Fame or Hall of Merit eligible players with more hits than Brock: Zero. Number of people with more MLB hits than Brock: 21.

2. Mickey Welch – 300 wins, lots of grey ink. RSI data shows those wins are real. Compares fairly well to Keefe. I like his dominating record against HoMers. With Beckley elected, he is my last real Teddy Bear.

3. Tony Perez – 34th all-time in total bases, no black ink – the weight of his career totals push him above what otherwise looks like a definitional bubble candidate’s resume.

4. Will Clark – It is a testament to how far we have fallen into the backlog that I have Clark this high. He is not my type of player – not enough career, little black ink and not particularly great at anything. But he is good enough for 4th this year, and this will be his only time on the ballot.

5. Burleigh Grimes – as a career voter, I have difficulty seeing the vast difference others see between Rixey and Faber (both now elected) and Grimes.

6. Dick Redding – probably the 6th best blackball pitcher of all-time (behind, at least, Williams and Paige and likely behind the Fosters and Brown), and that is good enough for me.

7. Tommy John – not too far from Grimes, a step above Kaat (at 17). No credit for the surgery, but medical pioneers (even the guinea pigs) get my respect.

8. Addie Joss – I don’t like short careers much, but I cannot ignore the best WHIP of all-time, the second best all-time ERA, the 12th best ERA+ and the nice winning percentage. He is barely better than (this is an unordered list) Martinez, Kaat, Hunter, Harder, Warneke, Smith, Bridges, Gomez, Hoyt, Dean, Luque, Pennock, Trucks, Matthews, Quinn, McCormick, Cicotte, Willis, Walters, Bender, Mays, Cooper, Shocker, Mullane (highest WS of any non-candidate by far), Byrd and Mullin.

9. Jim Rice – I like the 77-79 peak. I like the runs created in his ten+ year prime and I like his overall totals. I do adjust raw totals significantly, but I think people are holding Fenway too much against him. From 1975 to 1986, Rice led the American League in total games played, at-bats, runs scored, hits, homers, RBIs, slugging percentage, total bases, extra-base hits, go-ahead RBIs, multi-hit games, and outfield assists.

10. Dave Parker – I think he is very similar to Rice, but I like Rice’s peak better. Their career counting stats impress me.

11. Albert Belle – I thought I would love him. From 1993 to 1998, he was the most dangerous hitter in the game, to use a cliché. What a peak! I hope the peaksters put him high, but as a career voter, this is as high as he can get for me.

12. Sam Rice -- 2987 hits speaks to me, but not even the best starch on the ballot.

13. Orlando Cepeda – He is a very difficult choice for me because he isn’t significantly better than Howard, Colavito and Cash, but the slight difference means 23, 24 and 25 spaces respectively on this ballot.

14. Luis Tiant – I don’t have a problem with 11 pitchers from the 70s making our Hall. Talent isn’t evenly distributed and I have no problem with acknowledging value attached to favourable conditions. See Welch, Mickey, for the other side of the same coin.

15. Graig Nettles – definitely better than Traynor, about equal to Boyer. Obviously, the defence is a big help.
   11. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: October 15, 2007 at 04:41 PM (#2577137)
From 1993 to 1998, he was the most dangerous hitter in the game


Barry Bonds, Frank Thomas, and Jeff Bagwell would all like to have a word with you. Piazza was about as good over that period as well, and Griffey was close.
   12. Daryn Posted: October 15, 2007 at 05:04 PM (#2577173)
"Dangerous" is one of those words that deson't mean best. It is like most feared. It is an intangible quality -- by that standard, he was the most dangerous.

Dangerous also has an alternative, statistically based meeting -- the guy who causes the most damage -- which is mostly calculated by driving in the most runs. It is team dependent. Under this definition, Belle wins easily.

Anyway you look at it, he was a monster those 6 years. In fact, Bagwell and Bonds had dips in those years, though cumulatively did well. Thomas was, granted, also a monster those years, but more of his value was tied up in walks, so he was less "dangerous".
   13. Tiboreau Posted: October 15, 2007 at 07:28 PM (#2577344)
1. 1b Will Clark (nc)—The Thrill, an excellent ballplayer from 1987 to 1992, with a few good years thrown in after. It’s enough to top my ballot.
2. cf Alejandro Oms (2)—The Cuban Enos Slaughter: only one season over 30 WS, but 8 over 25; considering the effects of regression, had a nice peak as well as a real good career, including three statistically undocumented seasons in the Cuban Sugar Leagues before his recorded explosion in performance at age 26.
3. 1b Luke Easter (3)—We know that he had a long career (records of play with top Negro League teams in late ‘30s, early ‘40s and continued to play in the minors until the early ‘60s). We know he had the potential for big play (1948 and, when healthy, ’52, ’56 and ’58). What we don’t know is how well he would have played in the first half of his career, during his twenties. Yet, as we dig deeper into the backlog I find myself more willing to elect a player with a good career who showed the potential for greatness than one with a long career of merely above average play or one with short period of definite greatness during an abbreviated career.
4. sp Bret Saberhagen (4)—I did not realize how good Saberhagen was when at his best during the ‘80s. I would have him a bit lower, but I feel pitchers deserve more slack when it comes to inconsistency than position players.
5. 3b John McGraw (5)—Two great seasons surrounded by several more excellent yet injury-riddled years while playing a physically demanding (and underrepresented) position in a physically demanding era.
6. sp Dizzy Dean (6)—For five years he was among the greatest pitchers of all-time. Sadly, his career essentially comprises of those five years. The greatest peak among eligible pitching candidates.
7. sp Leroy Matlock (7)—Had a great peak, including 26 straight wins from ’34 to ’36. In fact, according to the MLEs, Matlock’s peak (and career) was better than Dean’s. However, the difficulties of estimating season-by-season value of Negro League pitchers leads me to place Matlock below Dizzy.
8. cf Dale Murphy (8)—Wally Berger with a few career padding years thrown in. Since the ‘80s appear to be much more difficult to dominate Mr. Clean slips in a bit higher than his 1930s counterpart.
9. sp Urban Shocker (9)—Jumped back on my radar screen due to Joe Dimino’s pitcher numbers. Like the rest, short career but packed in quality seasons for the majority of that time. Similar to Dave Stieb, just a little less career value.
10. 3b Al Rosen (10)—Flip's candidacy is similar to Dean's: five excellent seasons without much else, his career cut short by Keltner at the front end and back injuries at opposite end.
11. rf Bobby Bonds (11)—Yes, another nice peak, shorter career candidate on my ballot; his peak value a little lower, his career value a little higher than the others. I view him similarly to Jimmy Wynn.
12. c Elston Howard (12)—His peak is slightly better than Bresnahan's, career slightly shorter. Looking over his case again after some discussion during the last election, I feel I was giving him too much pre-MLB credit; it was a few years before his translated MLEs looked good enough to establish notice and I'm not going to give much in terms of blocking credit.
13. ss Johnny Pesky (13)—While I don’t want to give peak credit for war years, I don’t want to eliminate a candidate due to missed time either. Pesky’s WWII service, sandwiched by to 30+ WS seasons, deserves more credit than I gave it in the past, filling out his career value, strengthening his prime
14. rf Ken Singleton (14)—Singleton is one of the players who does it a bit better in one system than another. Going solely by Win Shares I'd have him ahead of Bonds, but by WARP he'd be a below him. I think this is mostly due to WARP's more aggressive stance on the importance of defense, so Bonds takes the upper hand.
15. 3b Ron Cey (15)—The best ballplayer from those great Dodgers infields. He had a nice peak, although it was nothing earth-shattering, had a nice career, although it wasn’t Ryan-like; however, the combination of the two plus the position is enough to make my ballot.

Required Disclosures:
sp Bucky Walters—He's just off my ballot. It is a nice peak, but his overall value is a bit inflated due to the decreased competition during the war, and the excellent defense behind him during his peak.
rf Gavy Cravath—“He played ball, and lived his life, with a minimum amount of effort and nervous energy.” Cravath gets extra credit for his minor league performance, especially as the star of the Minneapolis Millers. Cactus Gavy was on my ballot for many “years,” but he was fallen off as I’ve tried to better incorporate defense and WARP into my ratings.
sp Dick Redding—While he had a nice peak, in context it loses its impressiveness, and Cannonball Dick played at that level in too few years spread among too many poor seasons in a long career to be on my ballot.
rf Reggie Smith—A good player for a long time; unfortunately, I don’t feel that he was good enough per season to make up for his lack of durability.
lf Bob Johnson—He did have a nice prime and he does deserve some credit for his play in the PCL, but Indian Bob just doesn't have a high enough peak for my taste, and isn't able to make up for that with a long enough career.
cf Kirby Puckett—A 1980/90s version of Indian Bob Johnson.
   14. favre Posted: October 15, 2007 at 08:00 PM (#2577398)
I consider myself a prime voter, using a combination of OPS+/PA, ERA+/IP, and WS (particularly for defense) on a season-to-season basis. I examine only those seasons in which the player performed at a reasonable star level, with playing time a significant consideration. Also, I do not use an arbitrary time frame in my analysis (I used to give emphasis to a player’s best seven years, but discarded that over thirty “years” ago). Therefore, long primes do very well in my system; I am really more of a “career-prime” voter than a “peak-prime” one. However, outstanding five-or six year peaks can also do well in my system. I also give some weight to underrepresented eras and positions.

1. Vic Willis
2. Ken Singleton
3. Reggie Smith

With the election of Charley Jones, Vic Willis becomes my #1 backlogger. He was a workhorse--pitched 4000 IP with an ERA+ of 118, was in the top ten IP leaders nine times. He also had decent peak years, with ERA+ seasons of 167, 155, and 154.

We haven’t elected many OFr’s from the ‘70s: Reggie, Pops, Yaz, Wynn, Winfield, and Dewey (and Dewey was much better in the 80s). With their decent peaks and long primes, I think Singleton and Reggie Smith should join them. Smith had more defensive value of course, but with playing time issues, I think Singleton comes out ahead on a season-to-season basis.

4. Bus Clarkson
5. Will Clark
6. Gavvy Cravath

Clark’s appearance on the ballot reminds me of another Giants first baseman, Bill Terry. Both appeared on ballots with depleted backlogs and weak newbies. Both had relatively short careers, and were eligible before a glut of other highly qualified first basemen from their respective generations. But there the comparison ends; Clark has a significantly better peak, prime, and career than Terry. I didn't vote for Bill, but I am voting for the Thrill.

I’m using Dr. C’s original MLE’s for Clarkson rather than the upgrades, but even those show that Clarkson was the best third basemen of the early 1940s, and arguably the best shortstop. If you voted for Browning, then I would like to recommend Gavvy Cravath to you, another lumbering outfielder from a weaker league. Using Brent/Dayrn’s MLE’s for Browning, Cravath was better season for season, if you give him credit for PCL play. He was an outstanding hitter in his age 32-36 seasons, even taking his park into account.

7. Kirby Puckett
8. Tommy Leach

Leach continues to look good to me. He has seasons of 132, 125, and 125 OPS+ as a WS Gold Glove 3B; as well as 136 and 132 as a Gold Glove CF. And we’ve only elected seven third basemen who played before 1950. Puckett has dropped a little on my recent ballots, but his hitting keeps him above Tommy.

9. Bucky Walters
10. Wally Schang

While I recognize that Walters’ 1939-’42 peak was helped by outstanding defenses behind him, he also pitched well during and immediately after the war, when his outstanding defences were either in the service or growing old. Schang put up very good years at catcher every season from 1914-22 (except 1918).

11. Atanasio Perez
12. Alejandro Oms

Through much of the 1960s and early 70s, Oms was my top backlogger, and was #1 on my ballot several times. I dropped him off-ballot in a re-evaluation thirty years ago, when I had decided he didn’t particularly stand out against his contemporaries (and I thought we already elected too many of them). But I think I’ve been too hard on his era, and now that he’s surging in the voting I’m shamelessly climbing back on the bandwagon.

IMO, Perez in his prime (1967-73) looks similar to Elliott and Doyle in their primes; if I give Perez credit for his years at 1B 74-78, then he comes out ahead.

13. Bob Elliott
14. Larry Doyle
15. Tommy Bridges

Larry Doyle has been in my top twenty-five or so for decades; there’s just not a lot of second basemen out there with a career 126 OPS+. Bob Elliott, another old favourite, makes the ballot again. Doyle was a little better of a hitter, but Elliott had more defensive value.

Now that I’m being more realistic about the 1930s, Bridges’ ten top 10 ERA+ finishes stand out; if you remove his three #10 finishes, he still finishes seven times in the top six.


16. Bob Johnson
17. Dale Murphy
18. Frank Howard
19. Eddie Ciccotte
20. Dave Concepcion
   15. DL from MN Posted: October 15, 2007 at 08:28 PM (#2577448)
favre, you didn't disclose Dick Redding and I'm curious where you place him. I've considered Vic Willis to be the white Dick Redding. As a best friend of Vic Willis I'm curious why you don't support Cannonball Dick.
   16. Sean Gilman Posted: October 15, 2007 at 08:39 PM (#2577461)
2006

1. Will Clark (-)--I have no idea what the writers were thinking.

2. Tommy Leach (3)--May be the most underrated candidate out there. Great career value, fine peak and played two premium defensive positions. (1942)

3. John McGraw (4)--He’s got the best non-Browning peak of the backlog, but still a shortage of career value. (1997)

4. Dale Murphy (5)--A great prime with a decent career value despite the decline phase. Bumped up this year as he’s got the best peak of the outfield glut, and the career value difference is minimal. (2000)

5. Hugh Duffy (7)--High peak, medium length career, the best of a massive group of borderline OF candidates. (1964)

6. George Van Haltren (8)--Almost a HOMer not too long ago, will he make it eventually? (1966)

7. Alejandro Oms (9)--Another good, yet underrated, all-around outfielder. (1986)

8. Bobby Bonds (10)--Fine all-around outfielder, with a good mix of peak and career, like many other outfielders in this section of the ballot. (1995)

9. Bret Saberhagen (13)--Maybe should be ranked higher, but he looks like the Tiant of the 80s/90s to me.
That’s good enough for the PHOM, but not a no-brainer.

10. Albert Belle (-)--Kiner makes sense, I still think Edgar Martinez was the MVP in ‘95, though.

11. Ken Singleton (11)--Ridiculously comparable to Wynn. (1991)

12. Luis Tiant (14)--A fine all-around pitching candidate, good career value, solid peak, underrated.

13. Larry Doyle (12)--Another underrated infielder. Sisler-esque peak , according to win shares. Dropping him this year, but he’s still better than any of the off-ballot second or third basemen. (1945)

14. Graig Nettles (15)--A solid all-around thirdbaseman. Good defense, good peak, good career.

(Willie Randolph)
(Rollie Fingers)

15. Don Newcombe (65)--Took another look at some pitchers this year, and Newcombe and Tanana were the biggest beneficiaries. War credit helps his case a lot.

16. Dave Parker (16)
17. Tony Lazzeri (17)
18. Ron Cey (18)
19. Frank Tanana (66)
20. Dave Concepcion (27)
21. Wally Berger (20)
22. Carl Mays (21)
23. Mike Tiernan (22)
24. Cesar Cedeno (23)
25. George Foster (24)
26. Bobby Veach (25)
27. Dick Redding (26)
28. Rick Reuschel (28)
29. Ed Williamson (29)
(Dobie Moore)
(Jake Beckley)
30. Tony Perez (30)
31. Phil Rizzuto (31)
32. Bob Elliot (32)
33. Rusty Staub (33)
(Roger Bresnahan)
34. Lee Smith (34)
35. Vada Pinson (35)
36. Dan Quisenberry (36)
37. Hack Wilson (37)
38. Gavy Cravath (38)
39. Sal Bando (19)
40. Kirby Puckett (39)
41. Norm Cash (40)
42. Bruce Sutter (41)
43. Reggie Smith (42)
44. Don Mattingly (43)
45. Frank Howard (44)
46. Brett Butler (45)
47. Bobby Murcer (46)
48. Orlando Cepeda (47)
(Red Faber)
49. Buddy Bell (48)
50. Bucky Walters (49)

Clark, Saberhagen and Belle make the PHOM.
   17. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: October 15, 2007 at 08:49 PM (#2577470)
Tiboreau, why Cey over Nettles? Same era, same position, same peak and prime, but Nettles has meaningfully more career.
   18. favre Posted: October 15, 2007 at 09:45 PM (#2577516)
DL,

The MLE's from Redding's thread see him as comparable to Hershiser. I'm interested to know why you have Willis as a comp.

The other person I forgot to explain is Bob Johnson, who is #16 on my ballot. If we're talking about long primes, I'd rather have Singelton (better OBP) or Perez (time at 3B), although Johnson would not be a bad addition to the Hall.
   19. DL from MN Posted: October 15, 2007 at 10:11 PM (#2577536)
Dick Redding MLE
Support Neutral MLE projected record: 230-177
ERA+ 114 (DERA 3.95)

Vic Willis
249-205 record
ERA+ 118

The main similarity is how they both packed a lot of innings and a small number of peak seasons. Outside of the peak both ate innings but had a lower level of effectiveness. It's hard to compare with Hershiser who never had a 3 year peak like either Willis or Redding. Another comparable for Dick Redding would be if Dwight Gooden's 1985 performance lasted 3 seasons instead of one-plus.
   20. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: October 15, 2007 at 10:18 PM (#2577541)
DL from MN, you can't be serious. If you have three seasons of Doc Gooden 1985, you're Sandy Koufax.
   21. Chris Fluit Posted: October 15, 2007 at 10:38 PM (#2577553)
Personal Hall of Merit: Roger Bresnahan, Bret Saberhagen and Bobby Grich

1. Cannonball Dick Redding, P (3). PHoM- 1975. Great peak years between 1914 and 1919 including an estimated 2.14 ERA in 321 innings for Chicago in 1917 (according to i9). Lost a half a year in each of ’18 and ’19 due to military service. Even so, his career MLEs of 234-174 put him in the neighborhood if not ahead of contemporaries like Coveleski, Faber and Rixey.

2. Alejandro Oms, CF (4). PHoM- 1984. Finally convinced that he’s the best eligible outfielder. Including play in his native Cuba, Oms has a long, outstanding career. He hit for both average and power, plus he was an above-average (and possibly exceptional) defensive center-fielder.

3. Dave Concepcion, SS (5). PHoM- 2005. Even I'm surprised that I've got Concepcion in an elect-me slot. No other eligible shortstop can match Concepcion for length and quality of prime. Excellent all-around shortstop for 8 out of 9 years from 1974 to 1982 (1980 was a down-year exception), 8 ½ if counting his 89 game season in 1973.

4. Tommy Bridges, P (6). PHoM- 2002. I love that long prime. Top ten in ERA+ 10 times in 12 seasons (Addie Joss is only other eligible 20th century with more than 7 and he has 8). Top ten in IP 5 straight seasons from 1933 to 1937 for a suitable peak. Would be higher with a bit more career value.

5. Bob Johnson, LF (7). PHoM- 2003. We’ve already got plenty of players from his era, but Bob Johnson’s prime is almost as good as Bridges’. Top ten in OPS+ 10 times in 12 seasons. Top ten in RC 9 times. 13 seasons with OPS+ over 125 (Jack Clark is only other eligible outfielder with more than 10 and he has 11). Similar to Bridges, would be even higher with a bit more career value.

6. Don Newcombe, P (8). PHoM- 1987. Great years in ’50-’51 and ’55-’56 interrupted by military service in the Korean War. Missing a rise to his career due to integration and a tail due to his own personal issues (and no, he doesn’t get credit for the latter). With proper credit, he’s well over 200 wins for his career and though he isn’t in the same class as contemporaries like Whitey Ford and Billy Pierce, he’s close enough to be worthy of induction.

7. Hugh Duffy, CF (9). PHoM- 1995. An excellent center-fielder who could have won Gold Gloves in ’93 and ’95, he was moved to left not because of poor play but because his team acquired Billy Hamilton. Also, an excellent offensive player for 8 seasons from 1890 to 1897. That’s not quite as valuable as Concepcion at SS or Newcombe at P, but its close.

8. Bret Saberhagen, P (10). PHoM- 2006. More of a peak/prime candidate than I would usually vote for but second only to Stieb for starting pitchers for his era (Eckersley beats them both as a starter/closer hybrid).

9. Dick Lundy, SS (11). Feeling like I'm really going out on a limb having Lundy this high, but I like the long prime and the combination of bat and glove. Hall of Fame research shows that he walked more than initially credited. Initially compared to now-inducted Sewell and to players at other positions such as Biz Mackey and Cool Papa Bell. Similar defense to Bancroft. Similar length of prime to Concepcion from 1919-24 and ’26-28. Best player on pennant winning teams for two different franchises. Missing that one big year like Rizzuto's 1950.

10. Lou Brock, LF (12). PHoM- 1985. I'm still a prime/career voter and Brock is one of the best career candidates on the ballot. 1622 career RC are best of any eligible player. Very consistent for 13 years from 1964 to 1976 with OPS+ always between 106 and 128 and RC/27 over 5.00 for all 13 seasons. Among the worst defensive outfielders but that doesn’t hurt him as much as it might as there are few eligible corner outfielder candidates with outstanding gloves.

11. Burleigh Grimes, P (14). PHoM- 1984. My ballot is starting to fill up with this kind of player- missing the huge peak but a long excellent prime for a decade or more which results in great career numbers. Still, Grimes did have two separate peaks: first in 1920-’21 when he was the best NL’s pitcher in 1921 (138 ERA+ in 302 IP, compared to Adams 144 in 160 and Doak 142 in 208), and a second in 1928-29 (1st in Wins, 2nd in WHIP in ’28; 1st in ERA+, 2nd in ERA in ’29).

12. Pie Traynor, 3B (15). The best third baseman available. Good career rate (.320/.362/.435 in 1941 games) and cumulative stats (2416 hits, 321 doubles, 1183 runs, 1273 RBI). Not much of a peak but a solid 11-year prime from 1923 to 1933.

13. Orlando Cepeda, 1B (13). PHoM- 1996. The best available 1B. Has the peak that some of the career candidates are missing with OPS+ of 165, 164, 157 and 148. Has the career than many of the peak candidates are missing with 1375 Runs Created. I don’t think that the difference between Cash and Cepeda is all that great but I come down on the side of the Bull.

14. Vic Willis, P (n/a). Keeps bouncing around the bottom of the ballot- on it in '04, off in '05, back in '06 and likely to be knocked off again in '07 with the strong class of new candidates. Had an incredible peak from 1899 to 1901-02. His league-leading ERA of 2.50 was 1.66 better than league average in ’99. He led his league in ERA+ in both ’99 and ’01, before posting a 2.20 ERA in 410 IP in ‘02. After that, he became more of a workhorse though his ’06 season stands out as a fourth excellent year. Someone else compared him to Redding. I agree- similar to Redding and to Saberhagen but I prefer the other two.

15. Bill Monroe, 2B (n/a). First time voting for Monroe. Best available second baseman. Has both the offense (sorry, Red and Maz) and the defense (sorry, Doyle and Lazzeri).

The next five:
16. Graig Nettles, 3B. Very close to Traynor.
17. Phil Rizzuto, SS. Another prime candidate at shortstop moving up my ballot.
18. Ben Taylor, 1B. Great career candidate.
19. Jack Morris, P. The Burleigh Grimes of the 1980s, but I vote for Grimes so that's not the insult others have intended it to be.
20. Kirby Puckett, CF. Thought he'd be elected before he made my ballot.

New Eligibles:
Will Clark: This is going to kill my consensus score. I prefer both Cash and Cepeda. The latter has been hanging around the bottom of my ballot, and the former in the twenties. That's not going to be good enough for the Thrill.
Albert Belle: Said the same thing about Strawberry: not enough career for a corner outfielder.
Orel Hershiser and Dwight Gooden: Like them both and would love to be able to vote for them but they're Inner Circle in the Hall of Very Good which is not quite Hall of Merit material.

Necessary Disclosures:
Reggie Smith: now top five at his position but that's not enough to get him on the ballot
Bucky Walters: not enough outside of his peak for me to vote for him, but wouldn't be overly upset if he was inducted
Gavvy Cravath: similar hitter to Kiner, Keller and Klein which isn't good news for Cravath as I wasn't a big supporter of two inducted
   22. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: October 15, 2007 at 11:00 PM (#2577565)
3. Dave Concepcion, SS (5). PHoM- 2005. Even I'm surprised that I've got Concepcion in an elect-me slot. No other eligible shortstop can match Concepcion for length and quality of prime. Excellent all-around shortstop for 8 out of 9 years from 1974 to 1982 (1980 was a down-year exception), 8 ½ if counting his 89 game season in 1973.


OMG, am I not going to be the Best Friend of David Concepción this election?? I've got him tentatively at #4...What is this world coming to???

You're a good man, Chris Fluit. Now just explain to me Traynor over Nettles and Johnson over Smith and you'll *really* be my favorite voter.
   23. Mark Donelson Posted: October 15, 2007 at 11:21 PM (#2577607)
I’m a peak voter, though an amazing prime or really strong career will overwhelm my peak preferences in my (revamped) system. I lean on WS for hitters, with OPS+ and a little WARP thrown in as well. For starting pitchers, I prefer PRAA, with some ERA+ adjustments and a little WS (which I don’t love for pitchers) for good measure. For relievers, I’ve adopted a mix of career total PRAA and year-by-year peak PRAA, with an emphasis on the latter, which seems to produce the most sensible results I can come up with.

I’ve been convinced enough by the ongoing arguments re Doyle and Nettles that I had the former too high and the latter too low to make some changes among my infield candidates, though I haven’t banished Doyle entirely (well, he did drop off the ballot). I was also convinced that I had Murphy too low and Puckett too high, so they more or less swapped spots.

pHOM: Clark, Belle, Leach

2006 ballot:

1. Will Clark (pHOM 2006). Win Shares seems to be inordinately in love with him, but even if you shave some value off for that, he merely drops from way above the backlog to just above the backlog. Either way, he’s still above the backlog. (I really couldn’t stand the guy, so it kind of pains me to say that.)

2. Bret Saberhagen (pHOM 2005). A greater peak than I’d realized, and it shows up by multiple measures—not just PRAA. That, plus a better prime than Dean’s (in other words, he has one), puts him here.

3. Dizzy Dean (pHOM 1967). Sure, it’s a really short peak, but he was inarguably dominant during it. It’s just long enough (and high enough for that brief period) for me.

4. Ed Williamson (pHOM 1931). A lost cause, but still the best of the backlog 3Bs, for my taste. As Sunny always points out, great peak on both offense and defense.

5. Elston Howard (pHOM 1976). The various extenuating circumstances of his career can’t hide the great (if short) peak. I still prefer him slightly to Bresnahan, though I admit there’s a certain amount of “what if?” going on there.

6. Vic Willis (pHOM 1961). Not the most dominant pitcher of his era, perhaps, but then again, he was in the mix with some of the all-time greats. And his peak was very strong.

7. Gavvy Cravath (pHOM 1985). Yes, I know he dominated partially because of his stadium, but I can’t see why I should penalize him for that. With minor-league credit—which I think he deserves—he’s a pretty easy choice.

8. Luis Tiant (pHOM 1991). He wasn't Carlton/Niekro/Perry/Jenkins—too inconsistent, not good enough long enough—but he packed enough brilliance into several years.

9. Al Rosen (pHOM 1968). Very short peak, but five great years, especially at 3B, are enough for me.

10. Ken Singleton (pHOM 1997). Another of the “I had no idea he was this good at the time” gang—I think he was the player most felt Rice was back then. In my system, judged only on offense, he matches up well with Clemente and is better than Stargell.

11. John McGraw (pHOM 1996). Another tiny peak, but it seems good enough to outstrip the recent 3B glut to me (and at this position, it’s not like the years outside the peak are useless).

12. Johnny Pesky (pHOM 1997). With war credit for both, I prefer his peak/prime to Rizzuto’s, and I prefer them both by a great margin over the other backlog SS candidates.

13. Albert Belle (pHOM 2006). I really expected him to be at the top of my ballot, but his offense numbers weren’t quite as fantastic for quite as long as I’d remembered (mind you, they’re still pretty remarkable). I see him as falling slightly short of the Kiner/Keller/Browning crew, though that still puts him on the ballot and easily in my pHOM.

14. Phil Rizzuto (pHOM 2004). He’s been creeping up steadily for me in the last several elections, as I’ve slowly being coming around on his defense being world-class as opposed to merely good…and now he finally makes the ballot. With this view of his fielding, he’s very similar overall to Pesky.

15. Alejandro Oms (pHOM 1996). His MLEs makes him appear peakless, but of course that may partially be the “smoothing” effect of the MLEs themselves. And either way, his prime is so good that he seems worthy. As usual with NeL candidates, there’s a lot of fog here, but Oms as a player at this level—a slightly less good version of Minnie Minoso, say—is very plausible.
   24. Mark Donelson Posted: October 15, 2007 at 11:25 PM (#2577625)
16-20: Cicotte (1972), Leach (2006), Doyle (1995), Redding (1975), Duffy (1930)
21-25: [Whitaker], Trout (1997), F. Howard, Nettles, [Ashburn], Walters (1968), G. Burns
26-30: Clarkson, [Dw. Evans], McCormick, D. Murphy, Bando, Hahn
31-35: Parker, [Boyer], H. Smith, Gomez (1987), [Dawson], Hiller, Dunlap
36-40: Viola, Puckett, Cepeda, Berger, Avila
41-45: L. Smith, [Doerr], Elliott, Mattingly, Shocker, Rucker
46-50: Sutter, P. Guerrero, Munson, Stephens, Bo. Bonds

Required Explanations and Newbies:

•Johnson. Right in the heart of the Hall of Very Good, and certainly underrated historically, but not close to my ballot—nowhere near enough peak or prime.

•Smith. I just don’t see enough peak. He’s also HoVG for me—though he's a lot better than Johnson, he’s not quite in my top 50, either.

•Walters. He’s in my pHOM, and I've voted for him in the past, but he got demoted some years back for not being demonstrably better than other not-then-pHOMed guys like Stieb. He’s not far back, though, at #24.

•Redding. I like him, and he’s also in my pHOM, but there are still a bunch of other lost-cause pitchers I like better. Can’t quite seem to get back on my ballot; he’s at #19.

•Puckett. Not enough peak/prime to get in as an outfielder—even a CF—unless you play the what-if-no-injury game, and if I’m not doing that for Joss or Mattingly, I’m not doing it for Puckett. The defense and postseason heroics elevate him past Murphy, but not that far. He’s at #37.

•Hershiser and Gooden. I feel lucky to have seen bookends of Gooden glory in person: a 15-strikeout game (against the Phillies, I think) in 1985, and his no-hitter for the Yankees in 1996. Hershiser…I saw on TV a lot. They end up around the same place in my system, interestingly enough, near guys like Guidry and Tanana and Vida Blue. That’s slightly outside my top 50, though a lot better than guys like Sutton and Lemon.

•Doug Jones. Who knew? I don’t remember him being this good. He comes out as just shy of Sutter in my system, and better than Mike Marshall. That doesn’t get him near the ballot—again, just outside my top 50 is where he ends up--but it’s far better than my previous conception of the guy.

•Wetteland. Just shy of Marshall among relievers.

No one else was close.
   25. Howie Menckel Posted: October 16, 2007 at 02:06 AM (#2578364)
"Number of unelected Hall of Fame or Hall of Merit eligible players with more hits than Brock: Zero. Number of people with more MLB hits than Brock: 21."

"Number of unelected Hall of Merit eligible players with more outs than Brock (not counting guys like Biggio or Rickey): 1"

Career Outs Made, non-HOMers and eligible (courtesy of BB-Ref)
11. Luis Aparicio 8110
14. Rabbit Maranville 7887
26. Rusty Staub 7509
28. Tony Perez 7462
31. Vada Pinson 7304
36. Bill Buckner 7146
38. Gary Gaetti 7108
39. Graig Nettles 7096
43. Dave Parker 7055
44. Willie Davis 7051
45. Bert Campaneris 6999
48. Buddy Bell 6955
49. Dave Concepcion 6932
56. Doc Cramer 6787
60. Chili Davis 6737
   26. Howie Menckel Posted: October 16, 2007 at 02:07 AM (#2578367)
bizarrely, Brock disappeared from that list. so reposting:


Career Outs Made, non-HOMers and eligible (courtesy of BB-Ref)
11. Luis Aparicio 8110
16. Lou Brock 7823
14. Rabbit Maranville 7887
26. Rusty Staub 7509
28. Tony Perez 7462
31. Vada Pinson 7304
36. Bill Buckner 7146
38. Gary Gaetti 7108
39. Graig Nettles 7096
43. Dave Parker 7055
44. Willie Davis 7051
45. Bert Campaneris 6999
48. Buddy Bell 6955
49. Dave Concepcion 6932
56. Doc Cramer 6787
60. Chili Davis 6737
   27. Howie Menckel Posted: October 16, 2007 at 02:08 AM (#2578374)
... and of course Brock is 3rd.
I give up.
the lack of an edit function here is just maddening...
   28. TomH Posted: October 16, 2007 at 02:06 PM (#2579209)
2006 Ballot
Review of Hanrahan’s value system: career value with a fairly high replacement level (slightly below average). Something like RCAP adjusted for defense and league strength, or WARP3 minus 2.5 wins per full year, or WS minus 11 per year adjusted for league quality. Small credit for pitcher “peak”, none for hitters. Some subjective estimating of ability across time and place. I rank the long primes higher than most of us.

(x) indicates where I voted for them last ballot
[y] indicates their consensus rank from last ballot

The following is a very 3B-centric ballot.

1- Will Clark {new}
Great, great player for a while, good player for longer. Peaked in a poor hitter’s park before home runs began really flying. Not as good as WS and WARP make him out to be, but better than I or most others remember him. He’d be 4th at best on NEXT year’s ballot!
2- John McGraw (2) [22]
Dominant 9 year prime. Provided huge advantage over every other MLB team at third base. Add in our shortage of 1890s infielders & shortage of pre-WWII 3Bmen, and he’s clearly “in” for me.
3- Reggie Smith (5) [6]
Not quite the peak rate and durability for big-season voters, not long enough career for career voters. But overall a GREAT player. Helped every team he joined, and they hurt when he left.
4- Bill Monroe (8) [48]
Dominant in his day. Moreso than Oms or Redding or Clarkson or whoever your favorite NgLg candidate is.
5- Bucky Walters (3) [7]
Faced strong opponents, pitched real well, hit real well too.
6- George Van Haltren (6) [19]
Spent three years primarily as a pitcher. And is still 33rd all-time in runs scored.
7- Frank Chance (7) [65]
A great player on great teams. <u>As good a hitter as Gavy Cravath.</u>.
8- Bob Johnson (4) [4]
Very solid dozen year stretch. One very good MinorLg year of credit also.
Docked a little this ballot; while his stats are deserving of a #3 spot, he needs a little more war-qual deduction and too-many-great-30s-OFers deductions than I had been giving.
9- Bob Elliot (12) [36]
The 1947 MVP. Like I knew that already.
10- Luis Tiant (9) [15]
Few unearned runs allowed. Small bonuses for post-season wins. Small discount for arriving in those luvly-to-pitch 60s.
11- Dick Redding (10) [8]
Great pitcher according to the anecdotes. Less great by MLEs. I split the difference.
12- Burleigh Grimes (13) [25]
I’m (finally) Bully for Burleigh!
13- Graig Nettles (off) [18]
First time on my ballot. I think Win Shares, which has made up a portion of my ranking, disses him both on defense and the DH thing.

------ fuzzy PHoM line ----

14- Ed Williamson (off) [54]
After a long hiatus, Ed resurfaces.
15- Kirrrrbeeeeee PUCKETT! (15) [9]
Post-season heroics get him on my ballot.

Reuschel, Clarkson, Rizzuto, Brock, Saberhagen are 16-20.

Newbies:

Albert Belle – really great hitter. But he won’t sniff my ballot; he sure ain’t the type who was likely to lead my team for a dozen years, which as a potential GM I believe should be part of our thinking process. Poor man’s Dick Allen, and I was not a fan of Richie’s candidacy. Don’t call him “Joey”.

Orel Hershiser – wonderful guy. Not good enough.

Doc Gooden – troubled guy. Not long enough.

Returning top 10 disclosures:

A. Oms (off) [5] – One more good-hitting OFer from the 20s and 30s. He might make my ballot if there weren’t a lot of these guys around already.

Gavvy Cravath (off) [10]. Yo. Let’s see, Frank Chance hit better, even though Frank didn’t benefit from a homer-happy home park. Frank fielded better, at a more important position. Frank had more MLB at-bats. And Chance got all of 4 voters to list his last week.
   29. DL from MN Posted: October 16, 2007 at 02:11 PM (#2579219)
Gooden had 33 Win Shares in 1985, correct?

Here's Dick Redding's 3 year consecutive peak in the i9 translations:

1915 40
1916 33
1917 27

Then he saw combat duty in WWI.

The buzz on Dick Redding at his peak is every bit as compelling as the anectdotes about Gooden in 1985. He's credited anywhere from 7 to 30 Negro League no-hitters depending on the source including a 17 strikeout perfect game. He had streaks of 17 (1912) and 20 (1915) consecutive wins. He was an absolute workhorse at his peak, working both games of a doubleheader at times.
   30. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 16, 2007 at 02:18 PM (#2579235)
Gooden had 33 Win Shares in 1985, correct?

Here's Dick Redding's 3 year consecutive peak in the i9 translations:

1915 40
1916 33
1917 27


Are those numbers for Redding converted downward due to the less innings he would have been pitching during the Eighties, DL?
   31. DL from MN Posted: October 16, 2007 at 02:26 PM (#2579250)
I don't know enough about the I9s to determine the answer to that question.
   32. Rusty Priske Posted: October 16, 2007 at 04:35 PM (#2579465)
PHoM:

Will Clark, Dale Murphy, Harry Stovey


Stovey makes my PHoM 90 years after making the HoM.


Ballot

1. Tony Perez(3,3,2)

Yeah, I'm a career voter. Funny that, considering this is a career award. :) Seriously though. Perez did a lot for a long time.

2. Reggie Smith (5,6,11)

Rising steadily for me. He was better than I remember.

3. Will Clark (new)

In a year without a stellar new candidate, Clark stands out.

4. Tommy Leach (4,5,5)
5. George van Haltren (6,4,6)
6. Mickey Welch (7,10,7)

Three guys who have yet to get their just due.

7. Graig Nettles (9,9,10)
8. Rusty Staub (10,8,9)

Two more career guys...but these two are not as obviously qualified as Perez and Smith.

9. Lou Brock (8,7,8)

Stolen bases have gone from being over-valued to being ridiculously under-valued.

10. Hugh Duffy (11,11,12)
11. Ken Singleton (12,13,x)
12. Bob Johnson (13,15,15)
13. Orlando Cepeda (14,14,14)

A glut of perpetual bottom-of-the ballot guys. I don't expect any of them to get elected....but Duffy could surprise.

14. Norm Cash (x,12,13)

Sneaks back on.

15. Kirby Puckett (15,x,x)

No love here.

16-20. Redding, Murphy, Willis, Bonds, Streeter
21-25. Doyle, Grimes, Mullane, Strong, Greene
26-30. McCormick, Gleason, Monroe, Robinson, Souell
   33. Brent Posted: October 17, 2007 at 01:18 AM (#2580296)
2006 Ballot:

I’ll start with a note on the statistics that I present in my comments. Like some other voters, I have a system that assigns points for each season. The system is peak/prime oriented—1 or 2 points for an “average” season, about 10 to 20 for an all-star season, maybe 25 or 30 for an MVP season. A spot on my ballot requires about 140 points. Since the seasons that are worth 5 or more points are the ones that matter in my system, for my ballot comments I’ve decided to summarize the performance of players during those seasons.

1. Will Clark – Over 10 seasons (1987-92, 94-95, 98, 2000) he averaged 149 games (adjusting to 162-gm schedule), with an OPS+ of 145; one Gold Glove award at 1B. (PHoM 2006)

2. Kirby Puckett – Over 10 seasons (1985-92, 94-95) he averaged 156 games (162-adj), with an OPS+ of 128; 8 of those seasons were in center field, where he won 6 Gold Glove awards. Taking account of the difference in defensive value between a Gold Glove center fielder and a Gold Glove first baseman, I see his career length and value as similar to, and not far behind Clark. (2002)

3. Ken Singleton – Over 8 seasons (1973, 75-81) he averaged 155 games (162-adj) with an OPS+ of 149. (1991)

4. Phil Rizzuto – Over 8 seasons (1941-42, 47, 49-53) he averaged 154 games (162-adj) with an OPS+ of 100 and 15 SB with a 73% success rate; an excellent defensive shortstop; military credit for age 25-27 seasons. (1967)

5. Alejandro Oms – Over 9 seasons (1921-29), his MLE OPS+ was 138; a good defensive center fielder; also some credit for earlier undocumented play. (1967)

6. Hugh Duffy – Over 10 seasons (1890-99) he averaged 157 games (162-adj) with an OPS+ of 124; an excellent defensive outfielder; hit .489 with 16 RBIs in 11 post-season games. (1931)

7. Sal Bando – Over 10 seasons (1968-76, 78) he averaged 157 games (162-adj) with an OPS+ of 128. (1987)

8. Bobby Bonds – Over 10 seasons (1969-75, 77-79) he averaged 154 games (162-adj) with an OPS+ of 134 and 40 SB with a 74% success rate; 3 Gold Glove awards in right field. (1987)

9. Carlos Morán – Please check out the analysis on the Carlos Morán thread. (1998)

10. Albert Belle – Over 6 seasons (1993-96, 98-99) he averaged 159 games (162-adj) with an OPS+ of 162 and 13 SB with a 72% success rate. As others have noted, looking just at career length and pattern, OPS+, defensive position and value, and in-season durability, he matches Kiner about as closely as any pair of players I can remember. Nevertheless (personalities aside) they weren’t that similar as players—Kiner’s value was more home runs and walks, while Belle hit for a better average with a ton of doubles, but only exceeded 100 walks once. I give the edge to Belle, mostly because during Kiner’s prime the NL wasn’t yet fully integrated. (2006)

11. Elston Howard – Over 5 seasons (1958, 61-64) he averaged 132 games (118 as catcher) (162-adj) with an OPS+ of 132; an excellent defensive catcher; credit for several minor league and military seasons (especially 1954). (1977)

12. Bucky Walters – Over 7 seasons (1936, 39-42, 44-45) he averaged 18-13, 2.0 wins above team, 270 IP, 123 DERA+, 72 OPS+. MVP for 1939. (1958)

13. Dizzy Dean – Over 6 seasons (1932-37) he averaged 22-13, 3.6 wins above team, 288 IP, 129 DERA+, 182 SO, 67 BB. (1958)

14. Mickey Welch – Over 7 seasons (1880, 84-85, 87-90) he averaged 30-17, 4.3 wins above team, 437 IP, 117 DERA+, 74 OPS+. (1966)

15. Dick Redding – See the Cannonball Dick Redding thread. I’ll add that, although they doesn’t appear on the Redding thread, my support of Redding was also influenced by arguments put forward by former voter Gadfly on old ballot discussion threads. (1976)

Near misses:

16–20. Saberhagen (2005), Pesky (2005), Monroe (2004), Cravath (1976), Pérez (1994)
21–25. Long (2006), Grimes (1940), Leach (1932), Mattingly, Nettles
26-30. Lundy, Castillo, Van Haltren (1997), Parker, Hershiser

Other consensus top 10:

Bob Johnson – WWII years need to be discounted. There are several better outfield candidates available.

Reggie Smith - # 34. In-season durability issues keep him off my ballot.

Gavy Cravath - # 19.

Other new arrivals:

Orel Hershiser is # 30. Dwight Gooden doesn’t make my top 100.
   34. Rob_Wood Posted: October 17, 2007 at 02:23 AM (#2580581)
2006 ballot from this career voter (low replacement level):

1. George Van Haltren - deserving star of the underrepresented 1890s
2. Graig Nettles - super fielder; I am surprised by his lack of support
3. Bob Johnson - solid hitter, solid career (w/1 year minor lg credit)
4. Bobby Bonds - good combo of peak and career
5. Tony Perez - good career though he was barely an adequate 3B defensively
6. Will Clark - great peak, would be even higher if he had played longer
7. Bob Elliott - good 3B mired with woeful Pirates and Braves
8. Tommy Bridges - luv the strikeouts & win pct, with minor league and wwii credit
9. Rusty Staub - good peak + good career (similar to Perez)
10. Reggie Smith - boost from center field play and japan
11. Chuck Klein - very good peak and career (even after adjusting for park)
12. Bus Clarkson - everybody should give him another good look
13. Rabbit Maranville - better career than most realize (with credit for 1918)
14. Pie Traynor - was so overrated he is now underrated
15. Hack Wilson - great peak, short career
------
16-20 Jack Clark, Luis Aparicio, Tommy Leach, Bret Saberhagen, Dave Parker

Not voting for Dick Redding (around 50th), Kirby Puckett (around 100th),
Alejandro Oms (around 35th), Bucky Walters (around 75th), and Gavvy Cravath (around 50th).
   35. Rick A. Posted: October 17, 2007 at 03:51 AM (#2580782)
Going away this weekend, so I'm getting my ballot in early.

I tend to lean towards peak/prime, although a pure career candidate can sneak through at an important defensive position. I'm an anti-timeline, pennant-is-a-pennant voter. I give credit for wars, holdouts, strikes, blacklisting and players being in the minors when they're clearly MLB caliber, as well as NEL credit. I'm solidly in the WS camp, although I'll also look at OPS+, ERA+, IP, PA and ranking among contemporaries at their position. I do think that WS does miss on occasion, and I give a subjective bump to candidates who I think WS is off on.

PHOM
Will Clark
Tommy Bond
Al Rosen

2006 Ballot
1. Vic Willis – Very good pitcher. I like him better than Waddell. Elected PHOM in 1945.
2. Dick Redding –Elected PHOM in 1968
3. Hugh Duffy – Better than Van Haltren and Ryan, Elected PHOM in 1970
4. Burleigh Grimes – Higher peak than Rixey. Elected PHOM in 1961
5. Bucky Walters Very high peak. Elected PHOM in 1972
6. Alejandro Oms – Jumps up some on this ballot. Elected PHOM in 1978.
7. Will Clark - I think he’s slightly overrated by WS, but still good enough to get on my ballot.
8. Ed Williamson – I’ll take him over Boyer. Elected PHOM in 1958
9. Ken Singleton – Jumps onto ballot after I adjust for the DH. Elected PHOM in 1997.
10. Dizzy Dean – Short career, but high peak. Koufax lite. Elected PHOM in 1973.
11. Elston Howard – Underrated. Elected PHOM in 1985
12. Bruce Sutter – Very close to Fingers. I like his peak. Elected PHOM in 1994
13. Thurman Munson – Elected PHOM in 1997.
14. Don Newcombe – First time on ballot. Gets credit for Korea. Elected PHOM in 1997
15. Gavvy Cravath – Damn good hitter. Elected PHOM in 1988.

Required Disclosures
Bob Johnson Like more peak from my corner outfielders
Reggie Smith Moves up quite a bit this week, but still misses my ballot.
Kirby Puckett Not as good as Dale Murphy.

New Candidates
Albert Belle Not far from the ballot, but I like Kiner and Keller better.
Orel Hershiser Not as good as Saberhagen.
Dwight Gooden Unbelievable beginning to his career. Too bad he couldn't keep it up.

Off the ballot
16-20 Leach,Easter,Bond,Rosen,WCooper
21-25 Mays,(Faber),(Ashburn),(BRobinson),Rizzuto
26-30 Monroe,(Medwick),Murphy,Belle,(DSutton)
31-35 FJones,Nettles,Parrish,Scales,(Gordon)
36-40 Puckett,Mattingly,Elliott,Johnson,Perez
41-45 (Terry),Traynor,LSmith,Matlock,(Randolph)
46-50 Pesky,(Fox),(Boyer),(Pierce),John
51-55 Shocker,Clarkson,(Doerr),HSmith,Saberhagen
56-60 FHoward,Bando,Bell,Quisenberry,MWilliams
61-65 RSmith,Doyle,Cey,HWilson,Van Haltren
66-70 Ryan,Schang,McGraw,Bancroft,(Sewell)
71-75 AWilson,Cepeda,Stephens,DiMaggio,Poles
76-80 Winters,Kaat,Mullane,ACooper,Berger
81-85 Burns,Lynn,Taylor,Parker,Tiernan
86-90 JClark,(Thompson),JRice,(Dawson),Pinson
91-95 Cedeno,Chance,Brock,Staub,Cash
96-100 Fournier,Bonds,Lundy,McCormick,(Beckley)
   36. rawagman Posted: October 17, 2007 at 04:02 AM (#2580793)
Wasn't there a ballot sumitted on the discussion thread?
   37. sunnyday2 Posted: October 17, 2007 at 04:27 AM (#2580805)
I like Brent's ballot, he's right that it's make or break in those peak/all-star caliber seasons. And wow! Tommy Bond makes a PHoM! That probably makes two. Way to go, Rick A.
   38. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 17, 2007 at 12:16 PM (#2580884)
This Adam Schafer's ballot:

Hello guys, please consider this my ballot. I would be much obliged if someone would copy and paste it into the 2006 ballot thread when voting begins. I will be off to the police academy for a couple of weeks of training and will not be on the computer. Thanks in advance. I'll be back in time for the next vote.

Clark debuts down in the 60's with Tony Perez and Lou Brock. I have Hershiser almost tied with Saberhagen and Cicotte in the 90's. I have Bob Johnson in the 40's, Puckett in the 30's, and Reggie Smith in the 80's. Bus Clarkson is the only NeL player that will recieve any votes from me (without any new data).


1. Gavy Cravath - there's no arguement that he took advantage of his park. i say great for him. no one else on his team was able to do it to the extent that he did. You give the man proper credit, and he should be appealing to the peak and career oriented voters.


2. Lee Smith - I am sure this won't be popular. Someone has to be a fan of the reliever. Might as well be me. I voted for Fingers, Gossage, Wilhelm, and continue to vote for Sutter and Jack Quinn. As far as I'm concerned, he is the Eddie Murray of relievers. Never really stood out, or pops into your mind as a stud, but quite consistent, and for quite a long time. I would have no problem with either the HOM or HOF opening their doors to more relievers.

3. Orlando Cepeda - very consistent for a long time.

4. Bucky Walters - not as much career value as I typcially like, but enough peak to offset for the lack of career.

5. Don Newcombe - if you give him any NeL and Korean War credit, he has quite a case.

6. Bus Clarkson - I am willing to speculate that he was better than Stephens.

7. Vern Stephens - a power hitting, perrennial MVP shortstop is someone I can vote for.

8. Bruce Sutter - basically the same arguement as I have for Walters.

9. Elston Howard - I admit, I missed the boat with him a long time ago. Given proper credit, and my love of catchers, he should've been on my ballot long ago.

10. Chuck Klein - see Cravath

11. Bobby Veach - Tons of credit for pitching in 1918...ok, just kidding. Good career value though. Similar to Cepeda in the sense that he never stood out, but was consistent for a long time.

12. Jack Quinn - giving him credit for PCL play, being a fan of relievers, and a ton of career value makes him a viable candidate for my ballot. if he had been in the majors before the age of 25, I believe he would've got 300 wins and that milestone would've made a huge difference to some voters.

13. Ernie Lombardi - I understand why some people don't like him, I really do. I never imagined that his support would be so small though.

14. Lefty Gomez - he played for great teams...so did Red Ruffing...i'm not penalizing him for that.

15. Johnny Pesky - obviously only makes my ballot with war credit
   39. OCF Posted: October 17, 2007 at 11:19 PM (#2581839)
2006 Ballot.

1. Will Clark (new) Belongs in the lower half of the HoM, but there are no eligible candidates for the upper half on this ballot. "Hidden in plain sight" as an offensive player whose high but brief peak coincided with a sharp but brief downturn in league offense.
2. George Van Haltren (5, 5, 4, 3, 3) He did accomplish quite a bit in his career. Has now been on my ballot for nearly 100 years. Sam Thompson has what could have been his spot in the HoM.
3. Larry Doyle (3, 4, 3, 2, 2) I swapped Larry and George this week. It's still a heck of a bat - he's not a "joke" candidate to me.
4. Tommy Bridges (6, 6, 5, 4, 4) RA+ PythPat 190-124. Walters had a higher peak, but Bridges was a terrific pitcher.
5. Bucky Walters (7, 7, 6, 5, 5) Offense-adjusted RA+ PythPat 197-148. More peak than Bridges, but the one thing RA+ doesn't account for directly is defensive support and he seems to have had plenty of that - so I knocked him down a couple of notches.
6. Orlando Cepeda (8, 8, 7, 6, 6) The Baby Bull. Cha-Cha. There are plenty of places to find fault: indifference to defense, selfishness about his role with the Giants, injury history, early decline. But the early decline sticks out because the start was so good. And his NL was a strong league.
7. Norm Cash (9, 9, 8, 7, 7) One year does not make a peak (or a prime). But oh, what a year. Actually, he's on my ballot as a career candidate, although missing games in each year whittles away at his career value.
8. Sal Bando (12, 10, 9, 8, 8) A hair ahead of Bob Elliott.
9. Bob Elliott (13, 11, 10, 9, 9) Roughly the value of Al Oliver or Brian Downing as a hitter, plus 1300+ games of pretty good 3B.
10. Lou Brock (11, 12, 11, 10, 10) Low-peak, career-value candidate, severely underrated by OPS+, but of little defensive value.
11. Tony Perez (14, 13, 12, 11, 11) A little less a hitter (mostly that's a about prime-shoulder seasons) than Staub, did play a fair amount of 3B.
12. Rusty Staub (15, 14, 13, 13, 12) Reggie Smith plus some hang-around time.
13. Luis Tiant (17, 16, 15, 14, 13) RA+ equivalent 224-164. A 60's pitcher who re-invented himself as a 70's pitcher. A major participant in the 1968 "year of the pitcher" festivities. But it's the 70's career that has more value.
14. Reggie Smith (17, 16, 15, 14, 14) A very, very good player who always seemed to wind up on winning teams.
15. Bret Saberhagen (----, 17) How to place an 80's-90's pitcher who excels in value per inning but in relatively few innings versus 60's-70's pitchers (Tiant and John) who have innings-eating bulk but less value per inning. It was easier to to rack up that value per inning (but in fewer innings) in the 90's, during the tail end of Saberhagen's career; it was easier to rack up bulk innings in the 70's, with Tiant and John. Both took what the times gave them. It's close enough that I decided to split the difference this week.
16. Ken Singleton (18, 17, 16, 16, 15) A much better candidate than contemporary opinion would have made him. Earl Weaver's kind of hitter. But we can't let our enthusiasm for another unrecognized ballplayer overcome the fact that he's just another "bat," another corner outfielder of limited defensive value. Compared to Reggie Smith, he's got the better peak but less career - and I am more of a career voter.
17. Tommy John (19, 18, 17, 17, 16) RA+ Pythpat record of 281-244 with no big years. Compare to Tiant: the difference of 57-80 is pretty much a wash, and Tiant had some big years.
18. Darrell Porter (20, 19, 18, 18, 18) Better than Munson. Nearly as good a hitter, in context, as Lombardi.
19. Jack Clark (21, 20, 19, 19, 19) A hitter to be afraid of.
20. Graig Nettles (22, 21, 20, 20, 20) Interesting candidate, but not enough of a hitter for me to put him with Bando and Elliott.
21. Ron Cey (23, 22, 21, 21, 21) The best of that Dodger infield, although Lopes was also awfully good. Doesn't match Elliot and Bando as a hitter, so I'll slot him in behind them.
22. Frank Howard (24, 23, 22, 22, 22) A great hitter; a born DH.
23. Gene Tenace (25, 24, 23, 23, 23) Only half a catcher, but a better hitter than our other half-catchers (Schang)
24. Dick Redding (26, 25, 24, 24, 24) Career at the top seems short, although he hung around forever afterwards.
25. Luis Aparicio (27, 26, 25, 25, 25) More games at SS than anyone else, 500 SB with a good percentage.
26. Bobby Bonds (28, 27, 26, 26, 26)
27. Hugh Duffy (29, 28, 27, 27, 27) OK, but I'd rather have Van Haltren.
28. Kirby Puckett (30, 29, 28, 28, 28) Racking my brain for good reasons to put him ahead of Lynn, Butler or Cedeno - I suppose he has a consistency and in-season durability advantage.
29. Frank Chance (--, 29, 29, 29) An offensive force, when he played.
30. Alejandro Oms (-----) Better him than Johnson.

Bob Johnson: probably ranks about 35th to 45th. I'm more inclined to go for 1960's-1970's corner outfielders. See post #13 on the Lou Brock thread for more.

Albert Belle: a new "bat"; a case to compare to Puckett (injury-truncated career, no decline phase) except that the writers didn't like him. I don't see him as Kiner because I don't see him as having as high a peak.

Orel Hershiser: almost as good as Saberhagen, but in this environment, "almost" can be quite a few places.

Dwight Gooden: If we were to select roughly the same number of pitchers on the basis of a single best year, how different would our list look? Happy Jack Chesbro, maybe? Smokey Joe Wood? Dean Chance? Vida Blue? Johnson, Young, Alexander, Grove - we still get those guys. And Koufax, Gibson, Perry, Carlton - but who would we lose and who would we pick up?

John Wetteland: I once did an all-star team for the 1990's, and I named Wetteland as my closer. (I also had Belle in the outfield.)

Lance Johnson: Triples, triples, triples. Letting him get away from the Cardinals was one of the signs that Whitey Herzog wasn't running the show any more.

Luis Polonia: Belongs to the Brock type of player, troubled personal life division (see Lonnie Smith, Ron LeFlore, et al.)
   40. Rick A. Posted: October 18, 2007 at 01:02 AM (#2581889)
And wow! Tommy Bond makes a PHoM!

Actually, I've kind of been keeping an eye on him since you first put him on your ballot, decades ago. He just slowly started moving up as the backlog players entered my PHOM.
   41. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: October 18, 2007 at 02:16 AM (#2581937)
Someday my ballot which reach Magnusian and Yestesque depths of unconsensus.... I can dream.

1. Will Clark: Clark is the rare combination of outstanding 1B batting peak with very good glove work as well. That his peak occurred in the mini-deadball era obscures how good it was, and his going out with a bang but before he was necessarily done simply pushes down his career stats. Growing up a NY sports fan, I thought Mattingly and Hernandez were the best of the best, but Clark was as good or better.

2. Alejandro Oms: I know I’m going against the grain here. I think Oms probably did everything Winfield did over a long career, plus he played a good centerfield for much of it. Oms, in fact, has lots in common with Winfield, including the fact that neither seems to have had a superior peak, that both had a long, wonderful prime, and that both racked up tons of career value. Winfield is a safer, easier choice between them because his career is entirely documented and simple to interpret, but the NgL players have always required some guesswork, and my guess is that they are similar players with the slight advantage of position going to Oms.

3. Wilbur Cooper: Dominant NL portsider of the late 1910s-early 1920s. This guy was in the (retroactive) Cy Young chase every single year for a good long while in the late teens and early 1920s, battling Old Pete, Hippo, and Dolf for several years. I like pitchers who show dominance for a good stretch, and he’s one.

4. Ken Singleton: He’s the best player in the AL of the very late 1970s, and a good long while best RF in the AL. And while he might not have much defensive value, he’s doing a great job of walking and hitting with power, lots of SEC. Plenty of All-Star and MVP type seasons.

5. Tommy Leach: Pick your poison. As a CF, he’s not got enough peak to get on the ballot. But as a 3B, he’s a fabulous career candidate with enough at the top end to be among the top dozen 3Bs. Splitting it down the middle, he’s a 3B/CF hybrid with outstanding seasons at both positions, a nice, long career, and enough peak/prime to emerge as a downballot candidate.

6. Lance Parrish: Let me take a minute here to explain, since I think everyone’s going to jump my ship for this. As explained in his thread, Parrish’s two big knocks are his lack of walks and his fielding. But neither ubersystem sees Parrish as having problematic fielding—to the contrary, they LIKE his glove. We have evidence of his defensive goodness which has been largely ignored in the discussions so far: Parrish hung on for a good while as a regular and semi-regular despite a decline in his hitting—he could not have done so had his defense been as weak as has been said. Which leaves the walks. Well, catchers who play D and hit 300+ homers are still pretty rare, even in today’s HR-happy times. I won’t tell you the lack of walks is illusory, but I will say that Parrish built a lot of value despite the lack of walks, and that value is what I’m looking at. Parrish’s case begins and ends with positional dominance and career length. He was the best catcher of the AL for several years. Even after, he remained a productive regular for several seasons and a good backup even after that. He’s almost as high in my rankings at catcher as Whitaker is in my rankings of 2Bs. Not quite but almost. He’s right below Freehand and Torre. However, he’s more impressive than the guys below him at catcher, where Whitaker’s got plenty of guys breathing down his neck. I think both are HOMers, but their relative rankings are not cast in stone, and I’ll continue to monitor how I feel about it.

7. Leroy Matlock: He’s back. Many years ago now I saw Matlock as the best available pitcher. My consensus scores plummeted…. But in reviewing NgL players, I looked back on his thread, and I don’t really understand why I lost my nerve on him. The MLEs look HOMable, even if you see that 1937 season as a little less than 43 WS. I think we’ve whiffed on him, and that someday when we’ve got more better information, he’ll be one of the “lost” guys that no one talked about who ends up as a HOMer.

8. Bucky Walters: You know the story---I like pitcher peaks, and he's got one, even when dampened for the war.

9. Hugh Duffy: Lots of All-Star and MVP type seasons, a good run as his league's best position player, plenty of adjusted career value. He'd be a perfectly fine selection, but he’s certainly a borderliner.

10. Gavy Cravath: Nearly as good as Winfield, but that doesn’t necessarily translate into a high ballot placement when the backlog is so jammed.

11. Bus Clarkson: In revising my WS routine for MLEs, it improved his standing, and this placement reflects that. It’s not an exact placement, I’m still working through kinks in the system, but it’s enough to get him on the lower end of my ballot.

12. Graig Nettles: He’s a newbie on my ballot. The extensive discussion this week comparing him with several important 3Bs convinces me to include him on my ballot. In addition, I’m convinced to bump Bando off the ballot, though not far off.

13. Larry Doyle: Dominant 2B of the NL of the 1910s, good peak/prime, and an argument for having been the best player in the NL for a brief time. Few on this ballot can make such a claim to league-wide dominance. This week’s discussions of his candidacy have pushed him down the ballot.

14. Pie Traynor: He’s extremely close to Nettles/Bando in value but doin’ it differently.

15. Elston Howard: He’s a smidge ahead of Raj for me, and since Tralee is among our newest members….


NOTABLE NEWBIES
-Orel Hershiser: Should be a just-miss HOMer by my system, but I’m not so sure. Several really excellent seasons, granted, but the shoulder years aren’t as impressive to me. Contemporary guys with an ERA+ under 115 just don’t ring true, and in many ways, he’s just a little better than Saberhagen or Gooden who don’t make my ballot.

-Dwight Gooden: So much for poise, because poise only counts on the field, not off, and off-the-field helped ruin Gooden’s career. Agreed with numerous posters who pointed out that Davey’s overuse of Gooden probably did the majority of the career ruining, though that was then, and this now. Today Gooden would throw many fewer pitches and have a longer career with a lower overall peak due to fewer innings. Unless he played for Dustyball, in which case, his elbow would have spontaneously combusted. Good luck Cincy fans.

-Albert Belle: He’s just off the bottom of HOMable LFs for me. Nice peak/prime guy with similar career length/shape as Kirby. Too bad his first name wasn’t Sebastian.


NOTABLE OLDIES

-Dick Redding: I’m not a believer. Those 1920s numbers aren’t pretty. I’d encourage everyone to look back at them again. It’s not pretty at all, and he needs all of them to make it. I’d rather induct Cannonball Adderley.

-Bob Johnson: I dunno, I’m not really taken with him, but WS may underrate him due to his awful teammates. If I used WARP I might be since he’s a prime candidate more than a peak or career guys. On the other hand, he’s got a case for MiL credit. He’s not helped by war discounts, though.

-Kirby Puckett: Just not enough peak or career for my tastes. Wonderful CF, hit a bunch, but life happened to him, just as it’s happened to countless others…like Sam Rice, Addie Joss, or Sam Lever.

-Reggie Smith: I’m not really convinced that Smith’s inability to stay in the lineup is being taken seriously enough. Or maybe I’m taking it too seriously? He’s in my top 50, around Kiki and Dewey in RF, around Berger, Murphy, F. Jones, and Hack W., in CF. None of those guys have made my ballot at any time that I recollect, so I’m at least internally consistent on this one. Maybe someday when I incorporate Dan’s WARP that’ll change, who knows.
   42. sunnyday2 Posted: October 18, 2007 at 01:13 PM (#2582126)
2006

Again, I’m mostly a peak/prime Win Shares voter though I look at a lot of information—especially my own annual MVP ballot and all-star selections, OPS+ and ERA+, HoFS, HoFM, ink, etc.—in trying to correctly interpret the numbers. Lately I’ve been looked at WS above the position median. It’s a slow process to roll that through all the candidates, though I’ve got most of them now. I could discover other players who do well on this in the future, however.

2006 PHoM—Will Clark, Albert Belle, Bucky Walters

* PHoM/not HoM so far 21st century elections—Puckett, Mattingly, Munson, Dean, Pesky, Rosen, Duffy, Walters(?), Belle(?)

HoM/not PHoM 21st century elections—Trammell, Whitaker, Randolph, Stieb, Bresnahan. Trammell does quite well in my new WS above median analysis, however. I guess most of you would say, no surprise there.

1. Dizzy Dean (2-2-3, PHoM 2002)—for a peak voter, the one big oversight of the HoM project to date; 6.5 more WS per year than the median #1 starting pitcher (that is, the “ace” for each team) in the NL over a 6 year period; I haven’t yet found a pitcher with a better peak than that in the HoM or PHoM backlogs; even with a short prime (6 years), the 39 WS above median is the 3rd best I’ve found

2. Ed Williamson (3-12-6, PHoM 1924)—more peak and more glove than any other available IF

3. Elston Howard (5-5-5, PHoM 1994)
4. Don Newcombe (6-7-9, PHoM 1997)—these 2 guys missed more opportunities than anybody; Newcombe coulda been Robin Roberts, for Howard the comp is Mickey Cochrane; Newk was 3 WS per year better than the median “ace” for 7 prime seasons, vs. Saberhagen, for one, also at +3 and Stieb at +2.5; Howard was +10 vs. the median catcher

5. Will Clark (new, PHoM 2006)
6. Albert Belle (new, PHoM 2006)—coupla mashers, but drop from #1 and #2 on prelim due to the fact that they are more like other hitter candidates vs. the position median than I would have expected. Still, WS peaks are beyond question, Clark at 44-37-34 and Belle at 37-34-34-31 (with 1994 and 1995 adjusted appropriately). Clark’s total moves to 341 with adjustments. We’re short of gloves and arms but these guys are just better, and there’s not another “pure” bat on my ballot anywhere (the CF all have enough defensive value that I don't consider them as just "bats")

7. Larry Doyle (9-8-13, PHoM 1975)—at his best, a deserving NL MVP on a pennant-winning team; about 9 WS per year better than the median NL 2B

8. Tommy Bond (8-11-12, PHoM 1929)—he’s baaaack; pretty much the all-time WS peak monster even after I give his defenses half his credit

9. Johnny Pesky (11-15-24, PHoM 2004)—28 WS (in his rookie season) and then 34 WS in the years before and after spending 3 years fighting WWII; adjusted WS peak (adjusted to 162 games), then, is 36-30-30, compared to Rizzuto’s 37-27-26 and Trammel’s 35-29-26; rate is 23.8 to Rizzuto and Trammel’s 22.5; +7 WS per year versus position median

10. Al Rosen (12-18-38, PHoM 2005)—the #1 WS peak of anybody in my 30 hitters, and +12 WS versus position median; of course, the shortest career of the lot; but, also fills a position imbalance

11. Bucky Walters (45-38-36, PHoM 2006)—the big mover in my pitcher re-eval, 6 WS per year better than the median “ace” over 7 years and this is AFTER discounting his WWII years

12. Kirby Puckett (15-3-4, PHoM 2001)—+8.5 WS per year versus median CF

(12a. Alan Trammell [15a-24a-11a]—moves up with a +10, though that is versus some of the lowest position medians ever at any position, <10 in 1980, ’82, ’84 and ‘90 when the median AL SS included Bobby Meachem and Jeff Huson (who?)

13. Hugh Duffy (13-34-26, PHoM 2005)—I understand WS over-rates him, that’s why he’s here and not higher up

14. Phil Rizzuto (4-9-14, PHoM 1995)—key to Yankees success would seem to be “gloves;” only +5 versus position median but versus one of the better cohorts ever at any position, median AL SS in various years included Boudreau, Appling, Stephens, Rizzuto, Lipon, Carrasquel, Joost, Ray Boone and Pete Runnels; imagine Lou Boudreau or Luke Appling as your median, and compare them to Trammel's medians

15. Dale Murphy (23-16-16)—no Albert Belle but 33-32-32-31-29-28 is a damn nice peak, and +8.5 WS versus median CF

Drops Out

26. Addie Joss (14-21-20, PHoM 1967)--only about a median "ace," in fact, + exactly 0 WS per year versus the median; it's not the short career that hurts (for a peak voter), it's the playing time within seasons; karl put Joss on his ballot after I starting touting him maybe 50 years ago, or more; I now see that, like John McGraw and Reggie Smith, not to mention Frank Chance, what you see is not quite what you get

Close—i.e. right around in/out line, as I think we will elect about 4-5 more backloggers before we’re done

(15a. Wes Ferrell [30a-29a-27a])
16. Gavvy Cravath (17-17-21, PHoM 1995)
17. Tommy Leach (16-28-44, PHoM 1998)
18. Dick Redding (18-24-18, PHoM 1971)
19. Vern Stephens (19-22-19)
(19a. Jimmy Sheckard [19a-50c-HM])
20. Ken Singleton (22-33-37)

HoVG

(20a. Jim Bunning [46a-41a-41a])
21. Vic Willis (24-31-33)
22. Tony Perez (39-30-28)
23. Dan Quisenberry (26-19-15)
24. Reggie Smith (32-37-43, PHoM 1988)
25. Dick Lundy (20-35-35)
26. Addie Joss (14-21-20, PHoM 1967)
(26a. Early Wynn [NR-NR-NR])
27. Bret Saberhagen (NR-new)
28. Dave Concepcion (NR-NR-NR)
29. Dave Parker (21-27-27)
(29a. Dave Stieb [NR-NR-NR])
(29b. Roger Bresnahan [30b-20-31])
30. Burleigh Grimes (50-49-49)

31. Hack Wilson (25-36-29)
32. Frank Howard (30-47-36, PHoM 1987)
(32a. Joe Sewell [32a-50b-HM])

33. Bill Monroe (31-32-34)
34. Sal Bando (34-29-30)
(34a. Ken Boyer [32b-30a-21a-])
35. Pie Traynor (33-47-32)
36. Bruce Sutter (44-39-41)
37. John McGraw (35-40-50)
(37a. Lou Whitaker [36a-38a-31a])
38. Chuck Klein (36-22-23)
(38a. Quincy Trouppe [36b-42a-42a])
39. Wally Berger (37-50-HM)
(39a. Billy Pierce [NR-NR-NR])
40. Don Mattingly (29-6-7, PHoM 2001)
(40a. Dewey Evans [40a-50a-HM])

41. Dave Bancroft (4a-NR-NR)
42. Jim Rice (38-25-23)
43. Orlando Cepeda (43-41-39, PHoM 1987)
44. Fred Dunlap (42-45-45)
45. Alejandro Oms (40-42-40)
46. Bob Johnson (46-46-46)
47. Hilton Smith (47-43-42)
48. Luke Easter (HM-HM-HM)
49. Luis Tiant (49-48-48)
50. Bobby Avila (HM-HM-NR)
   43. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: October 18, 2007 at 02:08 PM (#2582197)
In the race to the bottom of consensus scores, I think, Sunny, you might be outrunning me!
   44. sunnyday2 Posted: October 18, 2007 at 02:56 PM (#2582253)
Actually I seem to be headed in the right (wrong) direction, with Walters replacing Joss. And I've never been anywhere near the very bottom, just fairly safely below the median. You of course have Oms (you're not against the grain at all on that), Walters and Cravath from among the last year's top 10, I only have Walters and Puck. And you have Clark #1, which is where he will end up even though he won't necessarily have a whole lot of elect-me votes, and I downgraded him from #1 on my prelim to #5 now. So yeah, it looks like I'll be below you.

I see we agree on Doyle and Duffy and Ellie Howard, and I have Cravath and Leach close to my ballot. If you was to replace Cooper with Diz or Newk, Clarkson with Pesky or Rizzuto, and Nettles or Traynor with Ed Williamson, you'd have a nice ballot there. ;-)

Seriously on those pitchers, WS vs. the median "ace" (the 4th/5th best #1 starter each year on average)

Dean +6.5 for 6 years +39
Walters +6 for 7 years +42 including WWII discounts
Newk +3 for 7 years +21 before any Korea or integration adjustments
Saberhagen +3 for 6 years +18
Grimes +3 for 9 prime years (ERA eligible ? 100 OPS+) +27
Cooper +3 for 11 years +33, not as much value *above the median* as Diz
Willis +2 for 9 years +18
Tiant +0.5 for 10 years +5
Joss and J. Morris 0
Bridges and Gomez -1
Cicotte -1.5

So Coop is not a bad choice (better, surprisingly than Willis, but Dean was better, the way I see it. Biggest surprise Billy Pierce was a below-median "ace." Newk was a ton better peak, prime, career, anyway you want to slice it. He was just prevented from expressing it fully due to Korea and residual racism (quotas, etc.).
   45. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 18, 2007 at 08:50 PM (#2582825)
So far, Marc's consensus score is much lower than Eric's, FWIW.
   46. SWW Posted: October 19, 2007 at 05:06 AM (#2584009)
Who knows when we’ll see another year with so much backlog potential. Maybe about the same time we see another team win 21 out of their last 22 games. Sweet mercy, Colorado.

<u>2006 Ballot</u>
1) Burleigh Arland Grimes – “Ol’ Stubblebeard”
Not just a Favorite Teddy Bear, but a Cherished Heirloom, and my white whale. A successful pitcher with both a dead ball and a live one. Frequently one of the best pitchers in the league, and often the best pitcher on his team. Many comparisons to Early Wynn, whom we did elect, and most similar to Red Faber, whom we also elected. Obviously, if I were keeping a PHOM, he’d have been in it decades ago. I always intended to sit down and right a massive brief on his behalf. I never did that, so boo to me.. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
2) Kirby Puckett
I know he’s considered overrated, but Istill find him worthier of induction than most eligible candidates. Writers tend to overstate his career, overusing words like “stocky” and “fireplug”. But the man put up the numbers, with 6 Top 10 AL Win Shares seasons, and probably could have accumulated more (although I haven’t factored that in here). Also, if you’re like me and you ever ordered a McDonald’s Puck Pack, you’re still trying to burn that fat off. Sheesh. 86th on Sporting News Top 100. 95th on SABR Top 100. 98th on Bill James Top 100.
3) Dale Bryan Murphy
A pleasant surprise. Similar in some ways to Hugh Duffy, in the peak-heavy nature of his career. A lot more of a prime, though, with 6 appearances in the NL Top 10 in Win Shares. New York Times Top 100.
4) William Nuchsler Clark Jr – “The Thrill”
I don’t necessarily think he’s such a dominating candidate for the Hall, but against this competition he certainly is. Impressive numbers, and (probably libelous, unsubstantiated assumption follows) a possible insight into what a cleaner Rafael Palmeiro might have looked like. (/slander) Might deserve to go higher; I’m debuting him a little lower than I might owing to the Shiny New Toy factor. Also, an awful lot of first basemen near the top of my ballot.
5) Atanasio Perez Rigal – “Tony”
Clark has the edge over Tony, so I’m knocking him down. I’m a career guy, and his career numbers are typical of a guy I would stump for, but it feels awfully flat. For the moment, I’m going to take stats over gut feelings, since that’s the point of this project. But I’m not entirely comfortable with this placement, which tells me I’m missing something, so it could change. 74th on Ken Shouler Top 100.
6) Orlando Manuel Cepeda Pennes – “Baby Bull”
Cepeda and Perez, together again. The biggest factor right now in my evaluation of Cepeda is the arrival on the ballot of Don Mattingly. They’re closer in merit than I realized, which is dragging them toward each other.
7) Carl William Mays
I have long considered Mays to be underrated, with better seasons and more milestones than more beloved candidates, like Luis Tiant and Billy Pierce. A much more definitive impact on his team and era than someone like, oh, Dave Stieb. I renew my suspicion that the ghost of Ray Chapman has shrouded his achievements.
8) Louis Clark Brock
Reaffirming my status as a career voter. He does well in Black and Gray Ink (owing, no doubt, to his prowess on the basepaths), and his prime WS and Top 10 WS seasons are notable. He’s hanging in there. 42nd on Ken Shouler Top 100. 58th on Sporting News Top 100. 73rd on SABR Top 100. 77th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. New York Times Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
9) Daniel Joseph “Rusty” Staub – “Le Grand Orange”
I‘m moving him up, because his career numbers actually stand out more than I realized. 358 WS is nothing to sneeze at, but his 5-year prime of 145 WS is also a standout. Imagine if he’d spent his career with one great team. 96th on SABR Top 100. 97th on Ken Shouler Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
10) Richard Redding – “Cannonball Dick”
Definitely the best remaining Negro League pitcher. That in and of itself may not merit his election. Hanging in there thanks to my support for Mays, who has a strikingly similar arc.
11) David Gene Parker – “Cobra”
If I’ve learned anything through my association with this project, it’s that while I’m a career voter, the importance of having a strong prime has grown a great deal in my estimation. It’s that thinking that keeps Parker on my ballot, and while I’m always reviewing the matter, I’m feeling alright about this placement. There’d be no doubt, if only he’d laid off the Colombian marching powder.
12) Donald Arthur Mattingly – “Donnie Baseball”
A huge shock. Considering the toll taken by injuries, he has really impressive seasonal numbers, including ink. Compares quite favorably with Perez and Cepeda, which makes me think that I either have them too high or Mattingly too low. We’re certainly not hurting for first basemen, he does far better than I anticipated. Damn Yankees.
13) Graig Nettles – “Puff”
I remember him as a very consistent third baseman; no Schmidt or Brett, but significantly better than, say, Carney Lansford. I’m a little surprised he placed this high, but the numbers point to a strong career. Similar to Darrell Evans, who I thought went in kind of fast.
14) Alejandro Oms – “El Caballero”
Well, whaddaya know? Comparing him to my support way back when for guys like Richie Ashburn and Willard Brown, he ranks at least this high. I have him in a cluster with some other peakish guys, like Duffy and Klein. Like so many of the top Negro Leaguers, I feel like there’s still a lot to learn; sure would be nice if the Cooperstown people would help out with that.
15) Edgar Charles Rice – “Sam”
The most careerist vote on my ballot, I reckon. An impressive career considering his late start. Not much in the way of peak, but considering how few Win Shares the Senators had to divvy up, he did pretty well.

<u>Other Top 10 Finishers</u>
Robert Lee Johnson – “Indian Bob”
Comes out similar to Heinie Manush, who I think is underrated, but still not quite ballot-worthy. So Bob falls short.
Carl Reginald Smith – “Reggie”
Seriously? Dave Parker is on 2 ballots, while Reggie Smith is on almost two dozen? That’s fascinating. I don’t get it, but it’s fascinating. Better than I gave him credit for, but still not exceptional. Extremely similar score to Fred Lynn. That’s not a make-or-break in and of itself, but it does give one pause.
William Henry Walters – “Bucky”
I’ve got a lot of pitchers ahead of him. In particular, I have him around Tiant and John, who are good, but not quite there. I like him better than I liked Stieb, so there’s that.
Clifford Carlton Cravath – “Gavy”
I actually have Reggie Smith well ahead of him, so I guess he’s not really close to my ballot at all.
   47. Ken Fischer Posted: October 19, 2007 at 11:56 AM (#2584087)
2006 Ballot

Early ballot for me. I’m off to Macedonia to do a week long workshop.

1-Dick Redding
He is ranked by many as one of the top pitchers of the pre-Negro League days.

2-George Van Haltren 344 WS
His numbers deserve the high ranking. I know…I’m a Van diehard…GVH and Stephens. I just can’t drop them down. They belong.

3-Mickey Welch 354 WS
300+ wins are great in any era.

4-Carl Mays 256 WS
256 win shares in an offense dominated era is impressive.

5-Craig Nettles 321 WS
Great plays on the big stage. His low career batting average keeps him out of the other hall. He probably stayed around 3 years too long.

6-Vern Stephens 265 WS
His comps are Doerr & Lazzeri but I believe he was better. A forerunner of the modern power hitting shortstop.

7-Will Clark 331 WS
Win Shares helps show Clark’s worth. I didn’t realize he was that good until he came onto the ballot. Perhaps he was overshadowed by playing in smaller markets.

8-Wally Schang 245 WS
He played for several flag winners. Schang had great plate discipline. At the age of 39 he led the AL in HBP.

9-Bob Johnson 287 WS
A raw deal…Indian Bob will forever be hurt by playing for mostly bad teams and the overlapping eras he played in (Live Ball & War Years).

10-Tony Mullane 399 WS
Gray Ink 198. Late in his career won 25 games after the mound was moved. Too bad he was at the end.

11-Tony Perez 349 WS
A career pick for the volume of his work.

12-Alejandro Oms
Oms is one of the top players ever to come out of Cuba. He played from the early 20s to well into the 40s at a high level. He was perhaps overshadowed by some of the other Negro league/Cuban greats of the time.

13-Luis Tiant 256 WS
Luis is a Cuban product of a later era. Comps include HOMers Bunning & Drysdale.

14-Lou Brock 348 WS
Great post season stats. SB given more value in his time.

15-Jim McCormick 334 WS
More Win Shares than Clark! Accomplished a lot in a short period of time. Maybe a poor man’s Bob Caruthers.

I rank Rice and Parker ahead of Puckett. I’m mainly a career voter and his short career doesn’t do as well in my evaluation. Walters is even farther down on my list for similar reasons. Reggie Smith isn’t in my top 50. I’m not sure about him and will give him a better look next time. Also, Cravath has never made it into my top 50. I may not give him enough credit because of the Dead Ball Era.
   48. rawagman Posted: October 19, 2007 at 11:56 AM (#2584088)
3) Dale Bryan Murphy
A pleasant surprise. Similar in some ways to Hugh Duffy,

If that's the case, why is Murphy 3rd and Duffy not on the ballot at all? Where do you rank Duffy and why so much different to Murphy? Don't get me wrong, I am one of Murphy's better friends as wel - but I definitely think Duffy was better.
   49. sunnyday2 Posted: October 19, 2007 at 12:49 PM (#2584117)
Interesting. I haev them 12-13-15.
   50. Howie Menckel Posted: October 19, 2007 at 01:24 PM (#2584159)
2006 ballot - our (and my) 109th

I had last year's electees Boggs-Browning-Dawson at 1-2-xxx on my ballot.

The annual fine print: Overall, I think there is too much emphasis on WARP3 and WS, which are intriguing tools but which are not yet sufficiently mature.
So my preference for ERA+ and OPS+ helps, I think, as a reality check. Increasingly, I've had to adjust for PAs/IP per season, not really an issue in earlier years when nearly all star players played almost every day or pitched a ton of innings.
I tend to be mostly prime-oriented with hitters, prime and career with pitchers. But a huge peak sometimes catches my eye, and a remarkably long hitting career also works for me.

I do not have 3 guys I am eager to elect.

1. WILL CLARK - As noted in the Albert Belle thread, I concede him as better than the pack, but not by a lot. Fielding, consistency, just enough durability, etc. For voters like me, we've run our of "pets" we might have liked better. A worthy HOmer but the vote tally may confuse outsiders.
2. CANNONBALL DICK REDDING - A longtime favorite who climbed his way back onto my ballot in recent years and now finally has climbed back to "elect-me." I liked him as an all-around candidate, but the HOF research suggests he's more of a peak guy. Those types don't always fare well with me, but I see no better player on the board.
3. BOB JOHNSON - I really like this sort of consistency over an endless span, though I'd hardly say he's a 'must-elect.' Sort of the Joe Gordon of OFs in career shape, or a slightly longer and flatter version of Kiner. I am concerned by 1944 being his highest OPS+; seems like he took advantage of the weak competition, so I discount that a bit. But has more than a decade's worth of excellent hitting, for a prime that I like better than Van Haltren's or almost any other holdover's.

4. ALBERT BELLE - Eerily Kiner-esque and Keller-esque, and I like if not love these mashers. Wouldacoudashoulda been such an easy pick if not for the sudden career crash. It is true that in subsequent years even more of these types have proliferated.
5. BOB ELLIOTT - Good to see him mentioned in a discussion thread 6-7 years back, at least. Six seasons of at least 134 OPS+, ALL of them as a 3B. Wish he'd played all 3B and not much OF, but c'est le vie - Sewell seemed to get treated as a full SS by some. Beats out HOMer Boyer (see Boyer thread for details) and compares remarkably well with HOMer Santo as a hitter (see Santo thread for more details). Better than HOMer Hack as well, and better than HOMer DaEvans (see DaEvans thread).
6. REGGIE SMITH - Pretty much completes a 7-year renaissance from off-ballot to top modern full-time OF. Not convinced he's a HOMer, either, but solid in so many respects. Weird patterns of high-skill vs high-PA, but he's just damn good every year, basically. Played a lot of CF, and quietly was one of the better OFs of his era. Closer to Puckett defensively than I had thought, and finally he wins this battle.
7. BEN TAYLOR - Had meant to reconsider him for years; finally did so 4 yrs ago. Long career, excellent fielder, consistent player. I'm not 100 pct sold on the hitting MLEs, but very good reputation and for sure a quality player. Moves up slightly.
8. GRAIG NETTLES - 6th time on my ballot, keeps moving up. Very good fielder with nine seasons of 100 to 115 OPS+ as a regular, and outstanding from 1976-78.
9. VIC WILLIS - Won a Howie SP bakeoff with Grimes and Walters, with slightly more career than Walters and better peak than Grimes. It's close, but I'll stick with Willis for yet another year.
10. DAVE CONCEPCION - 5th time on my ballot. Peak is as good or better than Fox's; not quite as consistent, but a slick fielder and a very useful offensive weapon many times. Not fully buying the "other teams were stupid enough to play ciphers at the position" argument; that helped the Reds win pennants, but Concepcion can't get full credit for that stupidity. Similar case to Bancroft, whose prime I preferred in other years to Concepcion's length. It's close.
11. KIRBY PUCKETT - Good prime for a CF, but not amazing. I had said if I wasn't sold on him being an excellent defensive CF in his first 6-8 years, he'd drop a bit. And now I believe his defensive prime didn't last that long, so he did drop a few spots. I'll pass on the intangibles, but he holds his own against BobBonds offensively, for instance, and has just enough at the finish line to pass DaMurphy on long prime.
12. BUCKY WALTERS - Bounces from off-ballot back up to 12th; has seen my ballot before. Seemed to get Jim Palmer-like defensive support, without enough super-stats to make that irrelevant. Proved his mettle outside of 'war years.' Lemon-esque, though I wasn't a big fan there.
13. DALE MURPHY - I've seen the light, at least in terms of a vote. A different peak-primieness than Belle, and a different fade. I will re-review both for 2007.
14. FRANK HOWARD - Usually someone pops back on my ballot each year, 2 years ago it was Hondo again. I had forgotten how spectacular his peak was, and his career tally - 142 OPS+ in nearly 8000 PA. Yes, he suffers due to defense - he could make a case for ranking No. 1 if he could field! Best-3 seasons - 177-70-70 in 1968-70, with almost 2100 PA total - make these other guys look like banjo hitters.
15. KEN SINGLETON - Bob Johnson-like, but not quite as good for quite as long. Equally underappreciated in his time.

AMONG THE TOP 10 RETURNEES, BUT I'M NOT VOTING FOR THEM (YET)
ALEJANDRO OMS - Not the type of white player I loved, either - not convinced OF defense is a ticket-puncher, nor of the longevity proposed in his thread. Deserving of our consideration and vault from obscurity, for sure.
GAVVY CRAVATH - Have voted for him before; do give him some minor league credit, absolutely. A reasonable pick; I just think that not only did he get a huge boost from the Baker Bowl, others could have done the same. Anyone else who has THIS much more MLB production in his 30s than his 20s? Yes, but not many.
TONY PEREZ - Faked it for 5 years at 3B, mostly a 1B and a lotta stat-padding on the downside. Doesn't have the peak I want in guys like this, nor the sufficient OPS+ toward the end.
HUGH DUFFY - Perhaps Win Shares' most embarrassing error. The Roger Maris of the turn of the century - wait, Roger had TWO great seasons and was a good fielder, too.
TOMMY LEACH - Interesting case, but ultimately overrated by Win Shares as well. But I like him better than Duffy or Perez.

JUST MISSED
ORLANDO CEPEDA - Suddenly popped up on my ballot 8 years ago with the reevaluation, just misses this time. Had been losing out to Perez with positional consideration, but closer look shows a sterling top-4 and top-10 offensive line. DH opportunity added nothing to his case.
DAVE BANCROFT - Not sure if I ever voted for him before 5 or 6 years ago. But look at the prime: fantastic fielder at SS, with OPS+s of 120-19-19-09-09-09-04. Won a fresh 3-way evaluation vs Fox and Concepcion at one point. Similar to Randolph, but an SS, so maybe Bancroft gets the nod next time.
BURLEIGH GRIMES - Compare to Ruffing, Rixey, Wynn and other such HOM pitchers - ok, Sutton, too. I dismissed him as short of Rixey and Ruffing, and he was. But he's just one 130 ERA+ year short of climbing onto this ballot. Better peak than Tommy John, and a lot more durable relative to his era.
LUIS TIANT - Looks like he has the peak at first glance, but notice that the IP just aren't quite there. Plenty good when he did pitch, but with that lack of innings you have to be even more dominant. Maybe he winds up as the era's last P electee, but probably not.
RON CEY - In the past I have had him over Nettles and Bell and nearly on the ballot, but that's because I may like his fielding better than most. Closest of the trio to Bando in hitting. Talk me into voting for him.
LEE SMITH - Very tough one. 10 seasons I really like a lot, only 1 or 2 I love. Sutter has more to love, less to like. A lot of RPs do. Off my ballot, but very much in consideration.
   51. Juan V Posted: October 19, 2007 at 06:53 PM (#2584506)
2006 Ballot

Review of my methodology: I use two systems, in one I use OPS+, with adjustments for stolen bases and shape of OPS, compared to a positional baseline, which varies over time to catch spectrum shifts and stuff. For pitchers, this is RA+, with adjustments for high IP seasons and relief pitching. In the other, I simply use the uberstats, mostly BPro's WARP but I'm integrating Win Shares and some components of Dan's WARP into the analysis. For both systems, I use a JAWS-like formula to weigh peak and career.

2005 PHoMers were Boggs, Sabes and Boyer. This year's class consists of Albert Belle, Reggie Smith (whose candidacy I took the time to review) and Darrell Evans. As usual, year of PHoMation is presented in parentheses.

1-LUIS TIANT (1988): The 114 ERA+ over a little less than 3500 innings is unimpressive, specially considering his contemporaries, but he really shined with unearned runs (roughly 8.5% of total runs allowed, compared to about 11.5% for his era).

2-GAVVY CRAVATH (1926): Clearly better than the borderline, Clarke and Flick seem to be good value comparables (maybe Winfield as well). With MLE credit, his peak is on the Kiner/Keller class, with the career that those two lack. So what if he took special advantage of his home park? He did it better than most, and his teams got value out of that.

3-BUS CLARKSON (1965): New MLEs incorporated. Glad to see the debate on him re-sparked, as we may be missing a gem here. In any case, he has well over 300 MLEed Win Shares, and an OPS+ around 120 from a SS/3B. The better part of his career, including his SS peak, took place before the Negro League scene got outta whack (although he was still well traveled). He was one of the reasons I decided to establish my new offense system, and under it he truly shines. I am discounting his 1940 a bit.

4-VIC WILLIS (1918): Almost 4000 innings at a 118 ERA+ put him pretty close to the average Hall of Fame starter (probably the average Hall of Meriter is a bit better). Seeing how this is squeezed into relatively few seasons, the result is a HOMable peak. Unearned runs are about average for his era, so they don't change his standing too much.

5-BRET SABERHAGEN (2005): have agonized on whether a starter can make a HOM case on barely over 2500 IP, but Sabes has a lot of positives. His low career totals are a function of injuries, not low use (for his era, at least), and his seasonal highs in IP and ERA+ seem to converge, giving him an excellent peak. Having 8% unearned runs doesn't hurt, either.

6-ALBERT BELLE (2006): Belle=Kiner? Sounds reasonable, and I liked Kiner back then. I think Belle was a wee little bit better.

7-ALEJANDRO OMS (1942): While the hitting value isn't as much as I once thought, there's too many Win Shares here to ignore. They give him a long career, with a considerable peak as well.

8-DAVID CONCEPCIÓN (1995): Averagish-bat, All-Time defense, and a really low baseline to compare him against. Clearly, my favorite among all the middle infielders with a similar profile. I believe there is a "real" reason why shortstops of his time were so bad with the bat, giving him real value.

9-TONY LAZZERI (1945): My old teddy bear (although, given my relatively short time voting, does it qualify him as "old"?). Where's the support for a 120 OPS+ second baseman? Was the defense really that bad (and why it doesn't show up on the uberstats, which put him clearly north of Larry Doyle territory)? Is my estimation of the baseline for 1930s second basemen that far off?

10-FRED DUNLAP (1930): Another "unearthed" candidate. Even with an UA discount, that 1884 season was monstrous.

11-BEN TAYLOR (1985): With Will Clark around, I hope he will get a little more attention, if even by comparison. Seems to have had similar value as a hitter, but with 1B being what it was in his era, he ranks higher.

12-REGGIE SMITH (2006): Huge bump for him, is there still room in this rapidly-growing bandwagon? At first, he seemd to Win Shares-y for my liking, but Dan's argument on his behalf has been more convincing. Seems like Bob Johnson with more defensive value.

13-TONY PEREZ (1995): Most of his best offensive years were as a 3B, thus raising his peak to the level where it can be "carried" by his career.

14-JACK QUINN (1996): The Beckley of pitchers, with some Julio Franco sprinkled in. He showed up in the oldest player leaderboards in 1919, and played for 14 years after that. Peak is meh, but there's too much career value for me to ignore.

15-DALE MURPHY (2001): His '82-'87 peak (with 1980 thrown in as a complement) gets my attention. It is a high peak, and just long enough to get a strong showing on my system, which is important since he barely has anything else.
   52. rawagman Posted: October 19, 2007 at 06:59 PM (#2584515)
Juan- what about Will Clark? Other top ten holdovers?
   53. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: October 19, 2007 at 07:05 PM (#2584523)
The problem with Lazzeri is career length, no? He has less than 11 full seasons' worth of play, and his peak, while high, is no Hughie Jennings.
   54. Juan V Posted: October 19, 2007 at 07:10 PM (#2584528)
16-BOB JOHNSON (1996): He is, after all, in my PHOM. Still, I believe he doesn't have the prime/career to make up for the superior peaks Cravath and Jones have.
17-Lefty Gomez (1996)
18-Eddie Cicotte (1997)
19-Wally Schang (1997)
20-Dagoberto Campaneris (2003)
21-Toby Harrah (2004)
22-Virgil Trucks
23-Wally Berger
24-WILL CLARK: A surprise for me. He dropped out of ballot-range once I curbed BPro's enthusiasm for good defensive first basemen. He's good, and I won't complain if he makes it in, but I think there are too many contemporary first basemen above him (we'll get one of those next "year"). Will this give me my lowest consensus score (compared to mean/median) since I joined?
25-Mike Tiernan
26-Rick Reuschel
27-George Scales
28-John McGraw
29-Jimmy Ryan
30-Tony Mullane
31-Mickey Welch
32-Bobby Avila
33-Bob Elliott
34-Buzz Arlett
35-Vern Stephens
36-Marvin Williams
37-Urban Shocker
38-Frank Tanana
39-Cesar Cedeño
40-Ken Singleton
41-Jim McCormick
42-Lee Smith
43-Dave Bancroft
44-Lance Parrish
45-Ron Cey
46-Carlos Moran
47-Mel Harder
48-Brett Butler
49-Tommy Bridges
50-Waite Hoyt
51-Bobby Bonds
52-Darrell Porter
53-Dick Lundy
54-Ron Guidry
55-Rusty Staub

Puckett and Walters are pretty close to each other, in the low 70s. Puckett doesn't come close to Murphy on peak (his 1988 is the only season that looks like Dale's best ones, and after that one, '86 and '92, he losses a lot of ground), and doesn't have near enough prime/career to make up for it. As for Walters, there are too many negatives (a lot of unearned runs, having very good defenses behind him, the war) to make him a serious candidate IMO.

Cannonball Dick, well... obviously there's still stuff missing, but given what we have, he would be roughly in the same area as the two above.
   55. sunnyday2 Posted: October 19, 2007 at 07:35 PM (#2584560)
>The 114 ERA+ over a little less than 3500 innings is unimpressive, specially considering his contemporaries, but he really shined with unearned runs (roughly 8.5% of total runs allowed, compared to about 11.5% for his era).

Is it just me or is this a total non-sequiter?
   56. jimd Posted: October 19, 2007 at 07:41 PM (#2584568)
Ballot for 2006

Read previous ballots if you want more depth on my reasons for all but the latest eligibles.

I am a peak/prime/career voter. Prime tends to dominate the ballot as Career has had an easier time of it in HOM elections, and short Peaks don't get too far in my system. Important parts of my peak and prime assessment are both the quantity and quality of a player's "All-Star" selections. These are the seasons where the player is able to make a positive contribution to a typical "playoff contender" (top 25% of participating teams). I use both WARP and Win Shares, though I emphasize the former because of its demonstrated overall yearly positional balance throughout baseball history.

I am reexamining my ballot carefully annually as we go deep into the backlog.

1) B. WALTERS -- Best of the backlog. Prime 1939-44. Best player in 1939; candidate in 1940 by WS. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1939, 1941, 1944; WS adds 1940. Other star seasons include 1936 and 1942.

2) B. SABERHAGEN -- Made my PHOM last year. High peak candidate, with a career too. Prime 1985-94. Best player candidate in 1989 by WARP. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1985, 1987, 1989; WS adds 1994. Other star seasons include 1988. Honorable mention in 1991.

3) W. CLARK -- Makes my PHOM this year. High peak candidate, with a career too. ;-) Prime 1987-94. Best player in 1989, candidate in 1988. 1st-team MLB All-Star (1B) in 1988, 1989, 1991. Other star seasons include 1987, 1990, 1992, 1994. Honorable mention in 1995, 1998, 2000.

4) K. PUCKETT -- Made my PHOM in 2003. Prime 1985-1995. Best player candidate in 1988 and 1992 by WARP. 1st-team MLB All-Star (CF) in 1986 and 1988 by WS; 1992 by WARP. Other star seasons include 1987, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1994. HM in 1985, 1993, and 1995.

5) F. TANANA -- Made my PHOM in 2004. More good seasons than Gossage. Poster-child for pitcher abuse. Still has the peak and also has the career. Prime 1974-77. Best player candidate in 1976 and 1977 by WARP. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1976; WARP adds 1975, 1977. Other star seasons include 1974, 1984. Honorable mention in 1987.

6) K. SINGLETON -- Better peak than Bonds; not quite as much prime as Wynn. Prime 1973-81. Best player candidate 1977, WS adds 1979. 1st-team MLB All-Star (RF) in 1975 and 1977. Other star seasons include 1973, 1978, 1979, 1980, 1981; also 1976 in LF.

7) L. TIANT -- Nice blend of peak, prime, and career. Win Shares does not like him. Tended to alternate good years (even) and off years (odd). Prime 1966-1978. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1968, 1974; WS adds 1976. Other star seasons include 1972 and 1973. Honorable Mention in 1966 and 1978.

8) D. CONCEPCION -- His best 7 seasons are very close to Ozzie's best 7, though Ozzie is clearly superior in peak, shoulder seasons, and career value. Prime 1974-82. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SS) in 1974; WARP adds 1976 and 1979; WS adds 1978 and 1981. Other star seasons include 1982. HM in 1975 and 1977.

9) J. KAAT -- Belongs. 14 HOM "bats" were born 1893-1903 (Sisler, Heilmann, Ruth, Torriente, Charleston, Terry, Goslin, Suttles, Stearnes, Averill, Simmons, Waner, Bell, Gehrig); don't tell me that 10 pitchers born 1938-48 are too many.Prime 1961-1975. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1962; WS adds 1966. Other star seasons include 1974 and 1975. HM in 1961, 1964, 1967, 1971.

10) F. JONES -- Still an all-star player when he walked away. I still think he rates ahead of Ashburn, but it's close. Prime 1900-08. 1st-team MLB All-Star (CF) in 1908; WARP adds 1902 and 1907. Other star seasons include 1900, 1901, 1903, 1904, 1905, 1906.

11) F. DUNLAP -- Great two-way player; bypassed for some reason. Amibidextrous, too. Reportedly could catch and throw equally well with either hand. Useful in this era before modern fielding gloves forced a player to choose one hand for each. Prime 1880-86. Best Player candidate 1880-81 (WARP). 1st-team MLB All-Star (2B) in 1880, 1881; WARP adds 1882, 1883, and 1885. 1884 in the UA is hard to evaluate but may also be #1. Other star seasons include 1886.

12) D. DEAN -- High peak candidate. Prime 1932-36. Candidate for best player in MLB baseball, 1934. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) 1934, 1935, 1936; WARP adds 1932. Other star seasons include 1933.

13) B. BONDS -- Very nice prime; marginal on career. Those who go to extreme either way will miss him. Prime 1969-77. Best player candidate 1970 by WS. 1st-team MLB All-Star (RF) in 1970; WARP adds 1971 and 1973. Other star seasons include 1969, 1972, 1974, 1975, 1977, 1978. HM in 1979.

14) P. TRAYNOR -- Back after another reevaluation. Prime 1923-33. 1st-team MLB All-Star (3B) in 1923, 1925, 1927, 1931; WS adds 1929, 1932, 1933. Other star seasons include 1926. HM in 1928 and 1930.

15) R. CEY -- Important component of the late 70's Dodgers. Prime 1973-1981. 1st-team MLB All-Star (3B) in 1978 by WARP. Other star seasons include 1974, 1975, 1976, 1979, 1980, and 1981. HM in 1973 and 1977.

16) B. MAZEROSKI -- Prime 1957-66. 1st-team MLB All-Star (2B) 1960 and 1964; WARP adds 1958. Other star seasons include 1962, 1963, 1966. HM in 1957, 1961, 1965.

17) D. BANCROFT -- Boost due to DanR's replacement level work. Prime 1916-22. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SS) 1920 and 1921; WS adds 1922. Other star seasons include 1916, 1917, 1918, 1925, 1926.

18) T. PEREZ -- Better 3B than expected. Important component of the Reds prior to the arrival of Joe Morgan. Prime 1967-1975. Best player candidate 1970 by Win Shares. 1st-team MLB All-Star (3B) in 1970; WS adds 1973 at 1B. Other star seasons include 1967, 1968, 1969, 1971 (3B), and 1972 at 1B. HM in 1974, 1975, 1977 (1B).

19) F. VIOLA -- Better than I thought. Tiant-lite, more peak, less career. Prime 1984-93. Best player candidate by WARP in 1988. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) 1987 and 1988; WS adds 1984. Other star seasons include 1989, 1990, and 1992.

20) D. REDDING -- Long career candidate. Fell off due to influx of new candidates.

Just missing the cut are:
21-23) Don Mattingly, Jim McCormick, Norm Cash,
24-26) Rabbit Maranville, Ron Guidry, Lance Parrish,
27-29) Jim Whitney, Mark Langston, Dizzy Trout,
30-32) Thurman Munson, Elston Howard, George Foster,
33-35) Albert Belle, Vic Willis, Bobby Veach,
36-38) Brett Butler, Bob Johnson, Urban Shocker,
39-41) Herman Long, George Burns, Dale Murphy,
42-44) Graig Nettles, Ned Williamson, Bob Elliott,
45-47) Denny Lyons, Hugh Duffy, Vida Blue,
48-50) George VanHaltren, Alejandro Oms, Joe Tinker,

No further need for my Browning comment.

Oms does not score that well in my All-star based system. He has a nice-prime pre-1930 injury, but so do a number of other OF candidates, and the 1920's context must also be taken into account.
   57. fra paolo Posted: October 19, 2007 at 10:07 PM (#2584679)
I'm in a rush, as we are about to take a short break in Spain. My ballot is also in transition as I begin to incorporate more extensively the results of my fielding system, which estimates a Zone Rating at the level of positions, as opposed to individual players, and is shaking up my rankings.

Having started life as an extreme peak voter, I have moved towards being a prime voter, and look carefully at who has already been elected to set the borderline. I also believe strongly in a ballot having a degree of positional balance.

1) Will Clark A great hitter in his prime, his 1989 is equal first as the highest-value season currently have for those contending for a place on my ballot. He is perhaps not as good a fielder as he seems to get credit for, though, with only one exceptional year in 1989. Best season: 1989

2 Dave Concepcion Definitely a HoMer, his 1974 season ties Clark's 1989 as the most valuable season on my chart. Unlike Clark, he adds value with his glove, and in 1974 and 1975 was one of the best defenders all time. Best season: 1974

3 Bill Mazeroski Now that I've integrated my fielding studies more thoroughly, I conclude that the HoM electorate has really missed the bus with him. In 1958 he has the second highest value with the glove of ALL 2bs in the period between 1950 and 1971, and then followed this with an exceptional run of consistency between 1962 and 1969, excepting one dud season in 1967. Best season: 1963

4 Kirby Puckett Every one of Puckett's 12 seasons was +5 WARP3. I mark him down a little for falling short of my modern benchmark of 2000 games.

5 Bret Saberhagen He has a very high peak, but there are some durability questions that keep him out of one of my "elect-me" slots.

6 Bob Johnson I like him for his 12 +5 WARP3 seasons. As with Puckett, he gets marked down slightly for too short a career in the big leagues.

7 Alejandro Oms My leading right-field candidate at the moment, I interpret his equivalent stats to suggest that he was a better hitter than Reggie Smith or Ken Singleton.

8 Luis Tiant I was surprised by finding him better than electee Dennis Eckersley. Tiant had an excellent prime, with top grade seasons in 1968 and 1974, which Eckersley lacks.

9 Thurman Munson Depending on where you bookend Freehan's prime, Munson is better or almost as good. His career value is almost equal. Why isn't he attacting more support?

10 Tony Perez He drops down quite a way owing to the positional balance effect, as he doesn't have the career Clark does. Interestingly, I don't find him the defensive liability that his reputation would suggest. He has average range, but not such good hands as one might like. Perez had two of the kind of pennant-winning seasons I value highly in 1969 and 1970, although they carry the taint of expansion effects. Best season: 1969

11 Phil Rizzuto War credit carries him past Aparicio and onto my ballot. He's a good defender for the two years at the start of his career, and again in 1950, but he's not exceptional the way Concepcion was. Best seasons: 1942 and 1950 (tied)

12 Orel Hershiser Between 1986 and 1988 he was undeniably an ace, but he doesn't look as peaky as Saberhagen, and at the moment I give Tiant the edge in career value.

13 Ron Cey Somehow I managed to overlook him prior to this ballot. Cey's 1975 season is a stellar performance, and he delivered excellent value for a 3b in his career.

14 Brett Butler I like the shape of his career better than Dawson's, even if it is shorter. He has a little longer prime than Singleton so gets a slightly higher placing.

15 Ken Singleton He dominated his league for a short time, and in his 1975 and 1977 seasons delivered the kind of boost that can take his team into contention. (A shame for all those formulae that neither actually did add a pennant.) He won a head-to-head against Reggie Smith, who doesn't peak quite as well.

Top tens not on ballot.
Cannonball Dick Redding has too short a peak for me, and not enough of what I'd call a prime.
Reggie Smith doesn't match Singleton on height of prime.
I used to vote for Bucky Walters, but I don't think he has quite enough career value for me nowadays.
I haven't looked closely at Gavvy Cravath for quite a few years, but at the moment he can't push past Oms and Singleton to get a place on my ballot.

New Guys
Albert Belle would be on my ballot if I was still a strict peak voter, but this year I'm going to leave him off because his overall career value doesn't measure well against those I have voted for.
   58. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: October 19, 2007 at 10:21 PM (#2584686)
fra paolo, why Cey over Nettles?
   59. sunnyday2 Posted: October 19, 2007 at 10:49 PM (#2584701)
REVISED 2006 BALLOT

There is no precedent for not balloting (or electing) a SS with 16 years as a regular, > 9000 PA, and 347 WS. Thanks to Doc for the new MLEs. The rest of my (off) ballot (#16-50) including all of the required disclosures are in my initial ballot up above in this thread (see #42, though if you want to count them both, please feel free ;-) Sorry for the re-work, guys. But this is important.

Bucky Walters loses PHoM status. Sorry, Bucky. Maybe '08.

1. Dizzy Dean (2-2-3, PHoM 2002)—for a peak voter, the one big oversight of the HoM project to date; 6.5 more WS per year than the median #1 starting pitcher (that is, the “ace” for each team) in the NL over a 6 year period; I haven’t yet found a pitcher with a better peak than that in the HoM or PHoM backlogs; even with a short prime (6 years), the 39 WS above median is the 3rd best I’ve found

2. Ed Williamson (3-12-6, PHoM 1924)—more peak and more glove than any other available IF

3. Elston Howard (5-5-5, PHoM 1994)
4. Don Newcombe (6-7-9, PHoM 1997)—these 2 guys missed more opportunities than anybody; Newcombe coulda been Robin Roberts, for Howard the comp is Mickey Cochrane; Newk was 3 WS per year better than the median “ace” for 7 prime seasons, vs. Saberhagen, for one, also at +3 and Stieb at +2.5; Howard was +10 vs. the median catcher

5. Will Clark (new, PHoM 2006)
6. Albert Belle (new, PHoM 2006)—coupla mashers, but drop from #1 and #2 on prelim due to the fact that they are more like other hitter candidates vs. the position median than I would have expected. Still, WS peaks are beyond question, Clark at 44-37-34 and Belle at 37-34-34-31 (with 1994 and 1995 adjusted appropriately). Clark’s total moves to 341 with adjustments. We’re short of gloves and arms but these guys are just better, and there’s not another “pure” bat on my ballot anywhere

7. Dick Lundy (20-35-35, PHoM 2006)—like I said up above, there is no precedent for not balloting (or electing) a SS with 16 years as a regular, 9300 PA and 347 WS (adjusted to 162 games). Note that his new OBA, based on the HoF and Cuban League data, is .347 versus Ozzie at .337 (Trammell is at .352). His new OPS+ is 104 versus Ozzie at 87. With 33 percent of his value on defense and 110 defensive WS, I’m guessing that makes him about an A- glove, same as Pee Wee Reese (OPS+ 98) and Joe Sewell (109). Trammell is a B glove with a 110 and 325 WS (after adjusting 1981). That is basically the company that he is in and that makes him better than Rizzuto and Pesky, who are both on my ballot.

8. Larry Doyle (9-8-13, PHoM 1975)—at his best, a deserving NL MVP on a pennant-winning team; about 9 WS per year better than the median NL 2B

9. Tommy Bond (8-11-12, PHoM 1929)—he’s baaaack; pretty much the all-time WS peak monster even after I give his defenses half his credit

10. Johnny Pesky (11-15-24, PHoM 2004)—28 WS (in his rookie season) and 34 WS in the years before and after spending 3 years fighting WWII; adjusted WS peak (adjusted to 162 games), then, is 36-30-30, compared to Rizzuto’s 37-27-26 and Trammell’s 35-29-26; rate is 23.8 to Rizzuto and Trammel’s 22.5; +7 WS per year versus position median

11. Al Rosen (12-18-38, PHoM 2005)—the #1 WS peak of anybody in my 30 hitters, and +12 WS versus position median; of course, the shortest career of the lot; but, also fills a position imbalance

12. Bucky Walters (45-38-36)—the big mover in my pitcher re-eval, 6 WS per year better than the median “ace” over 7 years and this is AFTER discounting his WWII years

13. Kirby Puckett (15-3-4, PHoM 2001)—+8.5 WS per year versus median CF

(13a. Alan Trammell [15a-24a-11a]—moves up with a +10, though that is versus some of the lowest position medians ever at any position, <10 in 1980, ’82, ’84 and ’90

14. Hugh Duffy (13-34-26, PHoM 2005)—I understand WS over-rates him, that’s why he’s here and not higher up

15. Phil Rizzuto (4-9-14, PHoM 1995)—key to Yankees success would seem to be “gloves;” only +5 versus position median but versus one of the better cohorts ever

16. Dale Murphy (23-16-16)—no Albert Belle but 33-32-32-31-29-28 is a damn nice peak, and +8.5 WS versus median CF
   60. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: October 20, 2007 at 12:10 AM (#2584751)
Important

For voters who are interested in glove candidates, especially voters with David Concepcion, Phil Rizzuto, or Dave Bancroft on their ballots, please check the "shortstops" and "Dick Lundy" threads.

Eric Chalek produced new MLE's for Lundy using the HoF stats, and Dan R. ran those numbers through his WARP system. The indications are that Lundy compares favorably to Concepcion and Rizzuto.

Given that there are only 2 elections left, it is imperative that Lundy be given fair consideration in this election. I encourage everyone to check out the new information, and if they find it persuasive, to resubmit their ballots. My hope is that Lundy makes it into the high-backlog during this election, forcing the electorate to give him full consideration for the 2007 election.
   61. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: October 20, 2007 at 12:15 AM (#2584755)
Couldn't agree more. I've been asking for revised seasonal MLE's for Lundy for months now, but they never appeared until there were only two elections left. A shame. Anyways, as far as I can see they show him to be the spitting image of Bobby Wallace. If you would vote for Bobby Wallace today, you should vote for Lundy. He was always considered by NgL historians to be one of the greats--finally, we have the numbers to show it. I would strongly encourage voters who have already submitted their ballots this "year" to take a look at the data and consider resubmitting a new one, as sunnyday did, if you find the data as overwhelmingly persuasive as those of us who are discussing Lundy on the Shortstops thread have done.
   62. Juan V Posted: October 20, 2007 at 12:39 AM (#2584764)
Good stuff. I don't have my HOMie stuff handy right now, so I'll take a closer look tomorrow morning, and update my ballot if necessary (and eyeballing those numbers, it might be).
   63. karlmagnus Posted: October 20, 2007 at 12:58 AM (#2584774)
Even with EricC's new projectiomns, Lundy doesn't make it. 104 OPS+ for a shortstop is about 129 for an outfielder, and that with 2400 hits wouldn't sniff the ballot. In any case, Eric's projections are usually 5-10% high and too long, compared with say Chris Cobb's, on which we elected most of the NgLs.
   64. sunnyday2 Posted: October 20, 2007 at 04:50 AM (#2584901)
But karl, you've got Vern Stephens #4 with 1800 hits. And Oms with his 125 is on your ballot. Fred Lynn with 1900 at 130 at #19. Your critique of Lundy is entirely inconsistent with what you actually do.
   65. DanG Posted: October 20, 2007 at 05:01 AM (#2584906)
My “system”? Emphasizes prime and career; give me steady production over a fluke year or two or three. Seeing no need to reinvent the wheel, I look at win shares and WARP and rely on the interpretations of these by other analysts. IMO, our group overvalues peak; I like guys who play. There’s also a tendency here to cut and run from well-seasoned candidates. Finally, unlike Bill James and most voters I don’t give any “consecutive-seasons” bonus; value is value.

My ballot, Teddy Bears and all. My #1 and #3 were elected. In 2006, Will Clark is the top name while Belle goes through the wringer. Ripken, Gwynn, McGwire and Cone come on for 2007. In 2008, it’s Raines and two older candidates. Then, in 2009, it’s The Ricky plus two more backloggers.

1) Will Clark – Edges past the backloggers.

2) George Van Haltren – We’ve now elected 18 players who were behind him in 1972. Huh? Were we so wrong about him for 50+ elections? No, we’re wrong now. Now in his 98th year eligible. Pennants Added study shows him well. He excelled in the contraction years 1892-1900; he had high SB totals (usually 35-40 in his prime years), which I believe was more important pre-1920; he was a mainly a centerfielder (~71.7% of his non-pitching games vs. ~47.6% for Ryan and 61.5% for Wynn), Ryan (and Duffy) actually played more corner outfield. Had 381 adjusted WS for career, with 11 years of 25+ and a 3-yr peak of 89 from 1896-98. Had 111.3 WARP1 for career, with 10 years of 7.0+ and a 3-yr peak of 27.9 from 1896-98.

Players with <u>most stolen bases 1891-1900: </u>
1—660 B. Hamilton
2—443 G. Van Haltren
3—416 H. Duffy

One non-HoMer here, Players with <u>3400 times on base 1871-1909</u>:
1—4433 C. Anson
2—3954 J. Burkett
3—3729 J. Beckley
4—3661 B. Dahlen
5—3605 G. Davis
6—3579 W. Keeler
7—3507 R. Connor
8—3438 G. Van Haltren
9—3434 B. Hamilton
10—3431 E. Delahanty

3) Tony Perez – Even-steven with Staub in win shares, but drubs Rusty in WARP3; in 12-year weighted prime Perez beats him 8.41 to 7.43. Career lovers delight with enough peak to make him great. <u>Firstbasmen with most Total Bases over a 15-year period, 1949-98</u>:

1977-91 4181 E. Murray
1967-81 3915 T.Perez
1959-73 3810 H. Killebrew
1972-86 3800 S. Garvey
1958-72 3684 O. Cepeda
1966-80 3430 L. May
1973-87 3400 C. Cooper
1963-77 3379 D. Allen
1973-87 3375 B. Buckner
1963-77 3360 W. McCovey

4) Tommy Leach – Enjoyed his highest finish in sixty years in 2002; he finished ahead of nine HoMers in 1942. I think it’s what Bill James once said, that all-around players get overlooked, while specialists get overrated; voters like that one area of dominance. Modern comp to, but just a bit behind, Craig Biggio, he could beat you in many ways. Longevity, defense and speed, more important in that era, rate him above Groh. Versatility is a plus; it should not be assumed that any typical thirdbaseman of the era could have successfully handled CF. Had a better peak than Bobby Wallace, but his career was a couple years shorter and he had just a little less defensive value. Among OFers with 750 games 1905-14, he is 2nd in PO/G (behind Speaker) and 2nd in FA (behind Clarke). Players with <u>1300 or more RBI plus Runs Scored, 1902-11:</u>
1—1883 H. Wagner
2—1726 S. Crawford
3—1429 T. Leach
4—1408 N. Lajoie
5—1392 H. Davis
6—1343 F. Clarke
<u>Leaders in Total Bases, 1901-10</u>:
1—2606 H. Wagner
2—2527 S. Crawford
3—2410 N. Lajoie
4—2128 H. Davis
5—2052 C. Seymour
6—1973 T. Leach
7—1933 F. Clarke
8—1911 J. Sheckard
9—1823 G. Beaumont
10—1783 B. Wallace

Not bad for a “glove”.

5) Burleigh Grimes – Comparable to E. Wynn. Has the heft I like in a career. Pitchers with <u>3800+ IP, 1916-75</u>. The top ten are all HoMers, nearly:

1—5244 W. Spahn
2—4689 R. Roberts
3—4564 E. Wynn
4—4344 R. Ruffing

5—4180 B. Grimes
6—4161 T. Lyons
7—3941 L. Grove
8—3897 E. Rixey
9—3884 B. Gibson
10—3827 B. Feller


6) Jimmy Ryan – Browning had one skill; Ryan could do it all. As a SNT he finished ahead of eight HoMers; the order in the teens was Duffy-Ryan-GVH. Usually trailing those guys were Caruthers-Pearce-Pike-Jennings-Griffith-Beckley-Childs-Browning-Jones. <u>Most extra-base hits, ten-year period 1876-1903</u>:
632 1893-02 E. Delahanty
550 1887-96 S. Thompson
549 1886-95 R. Connor
542 1883-92 D. Brouthers
525 1883-92 H. Stovey
487 1890-99 J. Beckley
481 1893-02 J. Kelley
458 1888-97 J. Ryan
453 1888-97 M. Tiernan
<u>Most outfielder Assists, 1876-1918</u>
1—375 J. Ryan
2—348 G. VanHaltren
3—348 Tom Brown
4—307 J. Sheckard
5—289 O. Shaffer
6—285 K. Kelly
7—283 S. Thompson

7) Rusty Staub – He’s the Grimes of position players. Ranks #36 all-time in Times On Base; #59 in Total Bases, just ahead of some guy named Jake. Edges Brock in win shares, blows him away in WARP3. Players with <u>OBP of .380+, 1967-76, 3500+ PA</u>:
1—.407 J. Morgan
2—.399 C. Yastrzemski
3—.397 W. McCovey
4—.394 P. Rose
5—.392 K. Singleton
6—.389 F. Robinson
7—.386 R. Carew
8—.386 R. Staub
9—.385 H. Killebrew
10—.381 D. Allen

8) Graig Nettles – Another looonggg career 1970’s star; Darrell Evans lite. James slots him behind Boyer, ahead of Traynor, which seems about right. For the 1970’s he was #6 in HR and #10 in RBI, not bad for a “glove”. I think he still holds the AL record for HR at 3B; 2nd all-time in games at 3B.

9) Rabbit Maranville – Every career voter should have him on their radar. WARP1 is 133.5, even better than Beckley’s 116.8 (high of 8.1). That includes four years better than 10.0. Plus he’s due nearly a year of war credit, which adds another 8.0 WARP1. Career WARP3 is 101.1, just in HoMer country. Career win shares, with war credit and adjusted to 162 games, is 339, including 124 in his top five seasons.

10) Wally Schang – There’s not a dime’s worth of difference between him and Bresnahan, so he’s still on the radar. Players with <u>OBP of .390+, 1915-29, 5600+ PA</u>:
1—.475 B. Ruth
2—.439 T. Cobb
3—.436 R. Hornsby
4—.435 T. Speaker
5—.427 E. Collins
6—.412 H. Heilmann
7—.399 J. Sewell
8—.398 W. Schang
9—.393 K. Williams

11) Gavy Cravath –Yeah, he has problems, but they all do. Had a long career, was a regular player into his late 30’s. And he had a high peak. What more do you need? Circumstances beyond his control kept him out of MLB for many years.

12) Elston Howard – Second time on ballot. I’ve always been a friend of catchers. Had a long career, was a regular player into his late 30’s. And he had a high peak. What more do you need? Circumstances beyond his control kept him out of a regular MLB job for many years.

13) Tommy John – First time on ballot. At this late point in the project, players near the end of the ballot (9+) are outside the HoMer circle. Uber career length: in 1965 he was a top-3 starter for a contender; in 1988 he still was. In between, he steadily piled up value, 108 WARP3, 295 AWS.

14) Dale Murphy – First time on ballot. Multi-talented, durable player with a great peak and enough career value.

15) Alejandro Oms –MLEs show OPS+ of 125 in +9000 PA. Win shares 340. Those are obvious HoMer numbers for a CF. Only my “hatred” of Negro leaguers has made him wait this long. Seriously, even my hyper-skeptical eye has to cave at some point.

Top tenners off ballot:

Bob Johnson falls off. I conclude that he would not have played regularly in 1943-45 without the war. This cancels out any minor league credit in my system.

Kirby Puckett lurks just off-ballot. Nice prime.

Redding is a good candidate if you put total faith in the translations showing a stratospheric peak.

Bucky Walters – Was on 1997 ballot. Think I might’ve had him a tad overrated, but he’s close.

Belle’s raw stats often get him overrated. Being cautious with a newbie.
   66. favre Posted: October 20, 2007 at 08:20 AM (#2584960)
As long as we're resubmitting ballots based on Dr. C's MLE revisions, may I suggest voters take another look at Bus Clarkson? Just saying.
   67. Juan V Posted: October 20, 2007 at 04:23 PM (#2584987)
New ballot, with the Lundy stuff. All other comments remain from my older ballot:

1-Luis Tiant
2-Gavy Cravath
3-Bus Clarkson
4-Vic Willis
5-Bret Saberhagen
6-Albert Belle
7-Alejandro Oms
8-David Concepción
9-DICK LUNDY: The newer MLEs make him look like a longer, flatter Concepción, so it's no surprise to see them together.
10-Tony Lazzeri
11-Fred Dunlap
12-Ben Taylor
13-Reggie Smith
14-Tony Perez
15-Jack Quinn
   68. karlmagnus Posted: October 20, 2007 at 06:41 PM (#2585084)
sunnyday2, Stephens's equivalent corner OF OPS+ is 119+25 == 144, much further outside the norm than 129. Lynn was a CF, so his 130 is equivalent to 130+5 =135 for a corner OF (though I grant you, he may be a touch high). Even if Lundy's numbers were solid, he wouldn't make my ballot, but as it is, the normal non-Cobb overestimate of NgL players suggests that Lundy's "true" equivalent OPS+ is in the 94-99 range.

I didn't have Ozzie Smith on or near my ballot, and I am proud of it. My method is consistent, whatever else it is.
   69. sunnyday2 Posted: October 20, 2007 at 07:27 PM (#2585115)
You didn't mention Oms and his 125 but I guess that's the equiv. of a 130 for a corner?

Meanwhile Stephens is 119 + 25. Is Lundy 104 + 25 = 129, or a whole point less than Oms? Granting Oms is only #13 on your ballot. If Lundy were somewhere other than below #88 it might make sense.

>I didn't have Ozzie Smith on or near my ballot, and I am proud of it.

Was he below #88?
   70. karlmagnus Posted: October 20, 2007 at 07:39 PM (#2585124)
Oms had a very long career. If you buy Lundy's 2400 hits at 104=129, Oms is 2700 at 133. Big difference. I have Oms at 125 or a little over, somewhere a little below Rusty Staub, which I think is about right -- on that scale Lundy is 2400/98 or thereabouts, which doesn't cut it. Ozzie was OPS+ of 87 or 90 adjusting for the SB, below #100.
   71. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: October 20, 2007 at 07:54 PM (#2585131)
karlmagnus, you are aware that you have to catch the baseball as well to win in this sport......right?
   72. karlmagnus Posted: October 20, 2007 at 08:03 PM (#2585135)
Yes, you get up to 25 points extra for catching it, depending on where you're standing. Perfectly simple system!
   73. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: October 20, 2007 at 08:28 PM (#2585152)
But what if you stand smack in the middle of the diamond and never catch it?
   74. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: October 20, 2007 at 08:44 PM (#2585169)
Once again, no support for Todd Frohwirth. I can't say I'm surprised.
   75. karlmagnus Posted: October 20, 2007 at 09:09 PM (#2585196)
Dan R, as Wakefield demosntrated in Game 4, if you never catch it you lose ballgames and your ERA+ goes to hell.
   76. Cblau Posted: October 21, 2007 at 02:28 AM (#2585889)
Questions for SWW:
1. How few Win Shares did the "Senators" (they were actually known as the Nationals then) have when Rice was on them?

2. Why do you find it surprising that Reggie Smith is on more ballots than Dave Parker? Smith had a career OPS+ of 137 compared to Parker's 121 and had more defensive value since he was a center fielder 6 seasons. What basis do you have for ranking Parker higher, or for that matter, anyone in any order, since one can't tell from your ballot why you have anyone in a given spot.
   77. sunnyday2 Posted: October 21, 2007 at 04:01 AM (#2586073)
Reggie2 is in my PHoM and Parker is not. But Reggie did have playing time issues--peak WS 29 versus Parker's 37. So for a peak voter, Parker ahead of Reggie2 is not so inscrutable. Of course it's true that SWW has Brock and Staub and Grimes and Tony Perez and Sam Rice on his ballot, so....
   78. Paul Wendt Posted: October 21, 2007 at 01:26 PM (#2586161)
Tiboreau #13
2. cf Alejandro Oms (2)—The Cuban Enos Slaughter: only one season over 30 WS, but 8 over 25; <u>considering the effects of regression, had a nice peak</u> as well as a real good career, including three statistically undocumented seasons in the Cuban Sugar Leagues before his recorded explosion in performance at age 26.

[emphasis mine] That is a scattered seasons rather than consecutive seasons "peak". Tiboreau probably knows that but just in case anyone is misled: The use of regression damps both good seasons and bad ones, converting consecutive seasons something like
from 30 10 12 24 by straight pro-rating to 162 games
_to_ 25 15 16 22 by pro-rating with regression.

Those numbers exemplify regression to 20, constant throughout the four seasons.
Chris Cobb, do you use a moving window such as the player's five-year average, T-2 to T+2 ?
With details depending on how much his regression point changes during the progress of a Negro League star's career, the use of regression tends to hide a "peak" like Dazzy Vance's, not one like Sandy Koufax's.


20. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: October 15, 2007 at 06:18 PM (#2577541)
DL from MN, you can't be serious. If you have three seasons of Doc Gooden 1985, you're Sandy Koufax.

That is one issue regarding Redding. Maybe not DL from MN but some supporters of Redding, not kidding, do see his pre-war seasons as a Sandy Koufax peak.


fra paolo #54
3 Bill Mazeroski Now that I've integrated my fielding studies more thoroughly, I conclude that the HoM electorate has really missed the bus with him. In 1958 he has the second highest value with the glove of ALL 2bs in the period between 1950 and 1971, and then followed this with an exceptional run of consistency between 1962 and 1969, excepting one dud season in 1967. Best season: 1963

Does "fra paolo" mean Brother Paul as in the monastery?

Nettles was a good batter for his fielding position, relative to Mazeroski. Nettles played longer. Did Mazeroski maintain his fielding peak longer?
(Anyway this vote may reflect a radically large gap between 2B and 3B on the defensive spectrum, a la the "Middle Infield" position.)


63. karlmagnus Posted: October 19, 2007 at 08:58 PM (#2584774)
Even with EricC's new projectiomns, Lundy doesn't make it. 104 OPS+ for a shortstop is about 129 for an outfielder, and that with 2400 hits wouldn't sniff the ballot. In any case, Eric's projections are usually 5-10% high and too long, compared with say Chris Cobb's, on which we elected most of the NgLs.

FWIW that is my impression.
   79. Chris Cobb Posted: October 21, 2007 at 03:22 PM (#2586211)
Chris Cobb, do you use a moving window such as the player's five-year average, T-2 to T+2 ?

Yes. This is exactly what I use(d, since I haven't calculated any MLEs in a long time and won't again for a while), except of course at the beginnings and ends of careers. Fortunately NeL players usually put up NeL stats a year or two before and after they were playing at major-league quality, so frequently I was able to use seasons for regression analysis that would not appear in the final MLEs.

I used five years because it was the interval that was typically needed to gather a sample size large enough to be meaningful. In a few cases, with NeL players of the early 1920s, three-year intervals might have been sufficient, and in quite a few cases during the 1930s, even five years leaves on with a very small sample size.
   80. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: October 21, 2007 at 04:55 PM (#2586266)
63. karlmagnus Posted: October 19, 2007 at 08:58 PM (#2584774)
Even with EricC's new projectiomns, Lundy doesn't make it. 104 OPS+ for a shortstop is about 129 for an outfielder, and that with 2400 hits wouldn't sniff the ballot. In any case, Eric's projections are usually 5-10% high and too long, compared with say Chris Cobb's, on which we elected most of the NgLs.


I will say this in my own defense. I think the WS are possibly puffy. But I think the MLE stat lines are not as much. I know I said otherwise recently, but I realized I had it backwards.

I claimed previously that because in some cases I had to estiamte RC/G for a league based on fewer, not complete, components there might be puffing as a result. In reality, this isn't true.

I take the est RC/G and compare to a 4.50 R/G league. But
a) I make adjustments along the way which specifically account for the difference between using RC/G and R/G as the conversion rate (because I sometimes must use both depending on the available data)
b) If the est. lg RC/G is a little higher than the actual R/G, that means the player is drawn further toward 4.50 than he should be.

To give an example. Let's say we have a player who created 10 R/G. Further say that the estimated RC/G for his league is 5.00. That means that 4.50 / 5.00 * 10.00 = 9.00 RC/G in the neutral environment. Now let's say that we found out later that the player's league was actually 4.95 R/G. Now 4.50 / 4.95 * 10 = 9.09 RC/G: 1% higher than before.

Flipping it around player is 10.00 again, but league is 4.00...
4.50 / 4.00 * 10 = 11.25 RC/G

But if we later find out the league was a 3.95 R/G league, then:
4.50 / 3.95 * 10 = 11.39 RC/G, or 1% higher.

Since having fewer components nearly always leads to a little puff in the lgRC versus actual RS, I think the MLE conversion ends up coming in slightly conservative in this regard.

Of course if you don'thave park factors that leads to some variability too, but that variability works in both directions, often within the same career.

So WS, possibly 5% puffy. Stat lines, I don't think so.
   81. Willie Mays Hayes Posted: October 21, 2007 at 06:18 PM (#2586324)
I'm a peak guy. I'll give proper respect for a career, but not for tack-on seasons. OPS+, ERA+ and WARP3 are my stats of choice.

1. Hugh Duffy - Great bat, great glove, OPS+ not nearly as bad as his detractors would have you think.
2. Will Clark - A glaring error by the BBWAA. Great, well rounded hitter, who played very good defense.
3. Ken Singleton - Consistently a top-5 bat. Worth 15 batting wins in his top-3 seasons.
4. Bret Saberhagen - Great peak. Only quibble is not enough IP, but he's right there with his contemporaries. Very similar to Steib.
5. Thurman Munson - I'm sold that he was very similar to Freehan. Thurm is starting to get the support he deserves. Take another look, if you haven't lately.
6. Buddy Bell - He's very close to Darrell Evans in my system, just a bit better than Nettles.
7. Graig Nettles - WARP likes him, and so do I. A poor man's Brooks Robinson.
8. Albert Belle - A great hitter and a terrible person. Some parallels to Dick Allen and Browning, though not quite as good as those two.
9. Alejandro Oms - I was missing a lot on him for a while. Nice player. A MUCH better candidate than Dawson.
10. Rusty Staub - A mix of peak/prime career. I like him better than Beckley, but not near as much as Duffy/Browning.
11. Tommy Leach - Wow did I miss him for a while. Love the WARP, the career, just not the peak, though it was OK.
12. Rick Reuschel - Beginning to come around on Joe's analysis of him. I don't think he was quite as good as Joe makes him out to be, but he's still a worthy candidate, IMO.
13. David Concepcion - I've spent most of this "year" looking back at the shortstops. Concepcion was very close to Ozzie's equal.
14. Phil Rizzuto - Right there with Concepcion with War credit.
15. Don Mattingly - Excellent defense, tremendous peak, injuries will probably cost him a place in both the HOF and HOM.

Dick Lundy is literally 16th, with the new evidence.

REQUIRED DISCLOSURES:
Bob Johnson - Down near 50 - just not enough peak or prime - kind of Beckley-lite in that regard.
Reggie Smith - In the 20's - I prefer Dale Murphy.
Bucky Walters - Used to like Bucky a lot. We elected Steib and I took another look at Bucky. Too many question marks. He's still in the Top-20, though.
Dick Redding - Used to love him, took another look at him a few years back - his numbers in the 20's don't help his case. Still, he's in the 20's, not much lower than Welch and John.
Kirby Puckett: Huh? No where near Dale Murphy. Don't get the love.
Gavvy Cravath - Moved down as a result of shortstop re-eval. Ranks 17th.
   82. AJMcCringleberry Posted: October 21, 2007 at 09:38 PM (#2586560)
PHOM - Clark, Lundy, Belle

1. Will Clark - Top 10 1B. Excellent peak. Could've won a couple of MVPs.

2. Tony Perez - Long career (23rd in games, 34th in total bases, 62nd in runs created) and a nice peak split between third and first.

3. Bucky Walters - Great peak and good career value, 3000+ IP 115 ERA+.

4. Jimmy Ryan - Good hitting center fielder, long career.

5. Rusty Staub - Very long career (11th all time in games, 30th all time in ABs) with a decent peak. 59th in career total bases, 72nd in career XBH, 36th in career times on base.

6. Leroy Matlock - MLE's show a pretty good 3000 innings and a nice peak.

7. Dale Murphy - Great hitting centerfielder. Excellent peak from '82-'87.

8. Bret Saberhagen - Similar to Trout. Good peak. May have been the MVP in '89.

9. Dizzy Trout - Nice peak. '44 was fantastic, he was robbed of MVP by teammate Newhouser.

10. Bob Johnson - Outstanding hitter, never below a 125 OPS+ in his major league career.

11. Gavvy Cravath - Superb hitter, not much of a defender. Gets a couple of minor league seasons added to his major league totals. 4th on the all time home run list when he retired.

12. Kirby Puckett - Good hitting, good fielding centerfielder. Not a long career, but a very good peak.

13. Dick Lundy - New MLEs shoot him up here. Decent hitter and good-great defender.

14. Graig Nettles - Excellent defender, good hitter over a long career. Brooks Robinson-lite.

15. Albert Belle - Damn could he hit. 103 XBH in 144 games, and that wasn't even his best season.

16. Frank Tanana
17. Lee Smith
18. Buddy Bell
19. Ken Singleton
20. Bobby Bonds
21. Hugh Duffy
22. George Van Haltren
23. Ceasar Cedeno
24. Dave Parker
25. Brett Butler
26. Vada Pinson
27. Tommy John
28. Norm Cash
29. Lance Parrish
30. Elston Howard
31. Tommy Leach
32. Orel Hershiser
33. Bus Clarkson
34. Bob Elliott
35. Ron Cey
36. Marvin Williams
37. Dave Concepcion
38. Harry Hooper
39. Luis Tiant
40. Alejandro Oms
41. Buzz Arlett
42. Don Mattingly
43. Orlando Cepeda
44. Gil Hodges
45. Burleigh Grimes
46. Reggie Smith
47. Jack Clark
48. Jose Cruz
49. Willie Davis
50. Fielder Jones
51. Dick Redding
52. Rick Reuschel
53. Pie Traynor
54. Dennis Martinez
55. Jim Kaat
56. Gene Tenace
57. George Foster
58. Wally Berger
59. Fred Lynn
60. Vern Stephens
61. Dick Bartell
62. Ernie Lombardi
63. Toby Harrah
64. Lou Brock
65. Tony Phillips
66. Red Schoendienst
67. George Burns
68. Bert Campaneris
69. Rabbit Maranville
70. Lave Cross
   83. EricC Posted: October 21, 2007 at 10:12 PM (#2586595)
2006 ballot.

1. Wally Schang Correcting for the 154-game schedule and the WWI-shortened seasons, has as much career value as Freehan in as many games, at least by Win Shares. Schang's lesser season-by-season totals is because in-season catcher usage was lower during his time than afterwards. The Bresnahan argument applies to Schang, too. Career leader in WS among major league catchers when he retired. A case where WARP is not as flattering as WS, perhaps accounting for Schang's lack of support.

2. Will Clark It's a coincidence that Clark and Belle become eligible at the same time because their cases have such strong similarities. One negative is that their cases are peak heavy and shoulder light; no other candidates have been elected with similar career shapes, unless their careers were cut short by extenuating circumstances (Jackie Robinson, Hank Greenberg, Joe Jackson...). Furthermore, they have been overwhelmingly rejected by the BBWAA, evidence that such career shapes nowadays are not generally viewed as HoF-worthy (though future VC votes could always change this). Nonetheless, I am satisfied with how I balance peak and career and how I balance eras, so I have no problem putting Clark and Belle as high as I do. Clark had an old-players-skills kind of career- highly valuable until age 30, and then a sharp falloff. The kind of career that Mattingly might have had without the injuries.

3. Tommy John Career pitching candidate in the mold of Faber or E. Wynn. Kaat is also similar. I can see how some voters would not put Tommy John within a mile of their ballots; on the other hand, John's decent showing in the most recent mock BBWAA election shows that some level of support exists.

4. Albert Belle His peak actually came later by age than Clark's, something that I had forgotten because of how quickly his career ended. Best player in MLB in 1998, a great season overshadowed by the Sammy-Mac battle in the weaker, watered-down NL. Arguably the 3rd greatest LF peak ever, well behind Bonds and Williams (not enough LF time to count Ruth in this discussion), but ahead of everybody else. These are the kinds of historic credentials required to vote for a player with so little outside of his peak. I see him as more similar to Keller than to Kline, but then again, I supported Keller but not Kline. Played 1051 of 1066 team games 1993-99.

5. Brian Downing This is a vote that will raise eyebrows, I'm sure. I have double-checked the numbers, and did not find any errors or compelling reasons to change my methodology, although the subjective strangeness of the outcome makes me question most (1) whether the career value portion of DH-era players ratings should be docked because careers tended to be longer (2) whether being among the best DH in a season is worth as many peak points as I'm giving. He ends up so high from a combination of every quirk in my system breaking in his favor:
catcher "bonus" for the catcher years, treatment of DH as a position in itself, population-based timelining, and consideration of league strength/affect of DH in a league.

6. Jack Clark Most similar players: R. Smith, Burkett, Heilmann, Cepeda, Singleton A "tweener" career that was good enough for long enough to land on my ballot.

7. Rusty Staub Looks like career >> peak to me. Will not help my consensus score, as similar players are the very very good types who don't make the HoM (or the HoF, unless they attain magic numbers like 3000 hits). I should call the bats that crowd the middle to bottom of my ballot "quadruple-A HoM candidates". Why did Dw. Evans get elected to the HoM, and not Staub too?

8. Norm Cash Among better 1B most seasons 1960-1971, and occasional all-star level. More consistent than Cepeda, but less playing time per season.

9. Orlando Cepeda Among better 1B most of years during 1959-1967 and occasionally all-star level; career totals padded 1968-1974. Cepeda, Cash, and F. Howard are a set of near-exact contemporary "bat" candidates who played in the 1960s, a tricky era in which to judge the potential bottom-half-of-the-HoM "bats".

10. Lance Parrish Had two or three excellent seasons, but his career was greater than his peak. An offensive plus who caught many games; 5th all-time in HR as a C; played in strong leagues. These credentials help place him on my catcher-heavy ballot.

11. Elston Howard Multiple years of all star play at catcher; 1961-1964 "workload" also noteworthy. A peak that few catchers have attained, but very little outside the peak.

12. Reggie Smith Among better RF most years during the 1970s; respectable career totals; played CF in addition to RF. One stat that I've tabulated for fun is career Win Shares times
career WS per plate appearance. It's not a perfect stat, but does correlate well with HoM selections. In this measure, Reggie Smith is the highest unelected player. That doesn't prove that he's a HoMer, but does suggest searching for reasons for his lack of support (which has turned around recently) (1) he's a 'tweener' between peak and career; (2) he missed a lot of playing time so that while his rate stats were always well above average, they don't show always lead to high season-by-season totals for those who look at things that way (3) he split defense among several positions; some may be rating him as a RF and neglecting his CF play.

13. Mickey Vernon Did have some all-star type seasons at 1B, but basically a "career" candidate all the way. Credit for two years missed to WWII, and belief that pre-expansion 1950s baseball had some of the toughest competiton of all time, based on teams/population. Among top contenders for "Hall of Fame chance hurt by WWII", as listed in Bill James' NBJHBA.

14. Ken Singleton Multiple all star-type seasons 1975-1979; MVP level 1977 season. Very durable in 1972-1983 prime; not much outside this. List of similar players suggests that he will not make it to the HoM easily, if at all.

15. Gene Tenace Consistent, high secondary average, run producing catcher. Would appear to be clearly below the consensus in/out line for catchers, but I rate catchers higher than most.

Puckett ~17th.
Concepcion 20th. A touch below Tony Fernandez (elgible 2007) IMO, and will be interesting to see how they compare in the vote.

I have Bill Byrd a touch above Redding, and Sol White as the unelected NeL candidate that I rate the highest.

Bob Johnson: on the basis of his major league record (WWII seasons must be appropriately discounted), definitely not a HoMer, therefore, supporters must be giving him extra credit. Sam Rice is a more deserving late starter.

Tony Perez, Andre Dawson (elected), and Dave Parker are birds of a feather. All have HoM-worthy career credentials, but get knocked below my ballot by their lack of peak.

Bucky Walters's case has issues of quality vs. career length, and WWII level of competition. Ultimately not enough high-quality seasons for my taste.

Ohms is hurt, in my view, by the exceptionally large number of better qualified CF who were exact contemporaries.

Even after taking into account the Baker Bowl, I could see a high-end extrapolation of Cravath's career as being similar to Sam Thompson's, but Big Sam himself never made my ballot.

Hershiser and Gooden are more pitchers who were among the best of their era, but not quite HoM-worthy in my view.
   84. dan b Posted: October 21, 2007 at 11:52 PM (#2586703)
PHoM 2006 – Clark, Belle, Moore (better late than never)


1. Clark PHoM 2006. Can’t believe he was one and done with the Cooperstown crowd.
2. Dean PHoM 1976. 1975 reevaluation of great pitching peaks put him on my ballot for the first time. NHBA #25 pitcher.
3. Walters PHoM 1968. Nice peak – 3 WS Cy Youngs, 1 runner up.
4. Duffy PHoM 1912. Compared with the median level of already enshrined HoMers using WS, Duffy would be in the top half using 5 consecutive seasons, 10 consecutive seasons, 3 best and 8 best seasons.
5. Rizzuto PHoM 1995. 1993 reevaluation moved him up. Stark says he is overrated, but Stark didn’t give him any war credit. NHBA #16.
6. Cooper, W PHoM 1942. Returns to my ballot in 1995 after 44-year hiatus. His peak was during a thinly recognized period. 1 WS Cy Young, 3 times runner up. Willis may have been better, but his era is more strongly represented.
7. Singleton PHoM 1997. Not many players on ballot with 3-32+ and 6-27+ WS seasons.
8. Burns, G. PHoM 1996. Came close to making PHoM during the 1929-1932 trough. Probably should have, better late than never. His 10-consective year peak is above the HoM median as is his 3-year non-consecutive.
9. Leach PHoM 1926. Teddy bear.
10. Murphy PHoM 2002. 4 consecutive seasons with 30+ WS
11. Cravath PHoM 1967. mle credit where credit is due.
12. Mays, C PHoM 1997. His era could use another pitcher. A quality pitcher we are overlooking. NHBA #38.
13. Newcombe PHoM 1998. Giving more war and mle credit (1993). NHBA #46.
14. Belle PHoM 2006. What a head case.
15. Saberhagen PHoM 2005. Nice peak.
16. PuckettPHoM 2003. NHBA #98 overall.
17. Mattingly PHoM 2004. NHBA #12.
18. Howard, E PHoM 1995. NHBA #15
19. Willis, V PHoM 1941.
20. Bando PHoM 1994. NHBA #11 (Boyer #12)
21. Browning PHoM 1912 – I had him 83 years ahead of his time.
22. Parker PHoM 2005. Do the first base line Dave. NHBA #14.
23. Howard, F A peak voter has to like him better than guys like Dawson and Smith.
24. Berger
25. Rosen If a great 5 consecutive season peak were the only measure we considered, Rosen would have been elected in 1964.
26. Bonds, Bo Barry’s dad was pretty good.
27. Munson NHBA #14
28. Staub Most career value on the ’02 ballot.
29. Veach
30. Wilson, H
31. Lundy With the late breaking data, conservatively placing him here. Will look at him some more. Fared well in the Cool Papa’s survey.
32. Redding Fared well in the Cool Papa’s survey, as did Spots Poles.
33. Evans, Dw I know he is a HoMer, just holding his place for the PHoM.
34. Perez Not enough good seasons to be higher. Jayson Stark says he is overrated.
35. Dawson Elected I know, but re-evaluation drops him on my PHoM rankings.
36. Cepeda
37. Tiant
38. Cash, N
39. Doyle PHoM 1930.
40. Chance, F PHoM 1921.
41. Grimes
42. Ryan, J
43. Van Haltren Do 3 years of slightly below average pitching really merit Van Haltren this much more support than Jimmy Ryan? Walked 16 in stellar pitching performance 6/27/1887.
44. Elliott
45. Traynor
46. Brock not enough peak to be higher
47. Pinson
48. Smith, Reg less peak and less career than Brock
49. Sutter I like him better than Fingers.
50. Arlett
51. Johnson, Bob Don’t see the support.
52. Nettles
53. Hershiser Not sure about this placement. Still looking.
54. Cicotte Better character and a couple more good years made possible by better character would have made him a HoFer if not a HoMer.
55. Oms Just don’t see the evidence to justify having him higher.
56. Gomez More peak than Tiant.
57. Bell
58. Murcer
59. Evers Comparable to Randolph.
60. Randolph A PHoM place holder. Overrated by HoM.
61. Cey
62. Mazeroski
63. McGraw Best 3B of the 90’s
64. Colavito
65. J. Rice
   85. EricC Posted: October 22, 2007 at 12:01 AM (#2586716)
10 Tony Perez He drops down quite a way owing to the positional balance effect, as he doesn't have the career Clark does.

Wow. If I understand what this voter is saying, he votes in a way that violates the Independence of irrelevant alternatives axiom.
   86. Trevor P. Posted: October 22, 2007 at 01:45 AM (#2587291)
I haven't voted in about a decade, so I hope this ballot is acceptable. As before, I'm a career-prime oriented voter who's generally a bit skeptical of Win Shares.


1) Will Clark. Nice walk rates, a good glove, and a medium-length career. It's not spectacular, but good enough for the top spot on this ballot.
2) Graig Nettles. The discussion on his thread convinced me he's not that far off from Brooks Robinson, in particular when one factors in the pair's double play rates and Nettles' disadvantage of playing in a DH league. A career candidate with a few top seasons makes a big impact when you're this deep in the backlog.
3) George Van Haltren. After Nettles, GVH is still probably the best pure career candidate available. 9000+ PA plus 600 IP, accrued in ~130 game seasons. With a 121 OPS+, I'll take those stats over Puckett.
4) Bob Johnson. All these years later, he's still a better hitter than Minnie Minoso. WARP3 shows him to be nearly equivalent to a less peaky Joe Medwick. He should get a year of credit, which balances out any (small) wartime discount.
5) Alejandro Oms. His prime is very similar to Johnson's, though weaker.
6) Phil Rizzuto . An above average hitter, if barely (13 BRAA) who missed his top years in WW2. His defence was stellar. I don't know why I wasn't a fan before my recent hiatus.
7) Burleigh Grimes. A bit like Bret Saberhagen, actually, in that he fluctuated wildly between good and bad seasons. Had five seasons where he was among the best in his league, and during his average seasons he ate up innings.
8) Rick Reuschel. His stats (3500 IP, 114 ERA+) make him look a bit like Billy Pierce without Pierce's 1955. Though Reuschel's 1977 was pretty amazing, too.
9) Bob Elliott. An above averge fielder according to FRAA, Elliott could also hit: he has five seasons among the top 10 in his league in OPS+. His three best years, 1947-49, prove he was no simple wartime fluke.
10) Tony Perez. Atanasio seems more of a prime than a career candidate to me, given that for eight years (1965-66, 1981-86) he was a part-time player and accrued little real value. His intervening career is not that far off from Elliott's, though not entirely at 3B.
11) Dave Bancroft I'd like to have more middle infielders, but at this point in the backlog the hitting candidates are simply stronger. Close to Rizzuto, though a slightly below average hitter.
12) Tommy John. Sort of the Reggie Smith of pitchers; his lack of innings in his best seasons kept him from having the brief peak of a career candidate like Grimes. Still, 4700 IP stands out in almost any era.
13) Luis Tiant. Quite impressed by the unearned runs. At least six all-star seasons.
14) Bucky Walters. He has Bret Saberhagen's career, with a few hangin' around-type years for good measure. One more season like 1939 or 1941 and he could top this ballot.
15) Jimmy Ryan. Hard to take GVH without also having Ryan nearby. Four seasons above 140 OPS+, played a decent CF.

Reggie Smith - The in-season playing time is the primary knock: it puts him around Ken Singleton, about five-seven spots off the ballot. 89.3 career WARP3 isn't that special either for a 1970s outfielder.
Kirby Puckett - Doesn't stand out from his contemporaries. I prefer Dale Murphy, for one. Short career doesn't help.
Dick Redding - Just off the ballot; is a near dead-ringer for Bucky Walters, it seems.
Albert Belle and Gavy Cravath - Both were dominant hitters without enough merit in the other aspects of their game (or career length, though I understand and account for Cravath's situation) to make the ballot.
   87. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: October 22, 2007 at 02:19 AM (#2587577)
2006 ballot

This has to be quick, so here goes...

1. Will Clark - Very underrated player
2. Dick Redding - 2nd best NeL pitcher of the dead ball era
3. Hugh Duffy - Nice peak, gets some credit for his team's overperformance
4. Bucky Walters - Similar to, but slightly worse than, Dave Stieb
5. Elston Howard - Very similar to Quincey Trouppe, could have had a much different career
6. Gavvy Cravath - If he had played in an era that appreciated his skills I think we would have elected him
7. Don Mattingly - Very similar to Sisler and Hernandez
8. Dizzy Dean - Koufax Lite, if you are in to that.
9. Vic Willis - I think we are overlooking him at the moment
10. John McGraw - Moves up this week, I think I was slightly underrating him. Would be higher if he had played more in season.
11. Larry Doyle - Maybe more of a modern 3B than a 2B, but he could hit
12. Urban Shocker - Best St. Louis Browns pitcher of all time? Am I forgetting anyone?
13. George Van Haltren - Very long, high prime
14. Tommy Leach - He has been as high as #8 but dropped from my ballot in the 1940's. He is now back after a reval
15. Phil Rizzuto - I agree that we need more infielders and I think that Rizzuto is the guy that stands out from the rest.

Required Disclosures
Oms - Slipped from ballot this year, probably #16
Johnson - I am a little baffled here, if anything, Dan R.'s stuff has made me less likely to vote for Indian Bob
Puckett - Very similar to Wally Berger for me, about #25
Smith - Not a high enough peak

Newbies
Good and Hershiser - Very good for a short period of time, esp. Doc, but not quite enough to make my ballot.
   88. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: October 22, 2007 at 02:21 AM (#2587586)
Forgot about Belle - he just misses my ballot. I dont' think he was as good as either Kiner or Keller, but I may change my mind in the future, #16 or #17
   89. Patrick W Posted: October 22, 2007 at 03:07 AM (#2587968)
All the excitement in this postseason has been because of games involving Cleveland. If they move on after game 7, look for a competitive Series. If Boston holds on, Sox in 4.

1. Frank Tanana (2), Cal. – Detr. (A) SP (’73-’93) (2000) – Sandy Koufax peak (49.7 bonus WARP for Sandy’s peak vs. 46.9 for Frank), plus played for 10 additional years of average / below avg. Here is either the player that breaks my system or a vastly underrated pitcher by the rest of you. Only player in my top 100 who is not HOM (or going to be in ’04).
2. Will Clark (n/a), S.F. (N) – Tex (A), 1B (’86-’00) (2006) – Just misses the top 50% line of HOMers. Another mistake by the HOF.
3. Tony Perez (3), Cinc. (N), 1B / 3B (’65-’86) (1994) – Completely different BA/OB/SG breakdown, but the sum of his offensive and defensive value to a team makes him look like a twin of Willie Keeler to me.
4. Luis Tiant (4), Bost. – Clev. (A) SP (’64-’80) (1988) – Right there with Drysdale, Ford and Marichal. Not a slam dunk, but the ballot’s not strong enough to hold him down.
5. Lee Smith (5), Chic. – St.L. (N) RP (’81-’97) (2003) – Goose had enough peak to start Lee as the 3rd best reliever.
6. Tommy John (7), Chic.– N.Y. (A) SP (’63-’89) (1997) – If you can maintain average for a quarter century, that’s just a different definition of greatness.
7. Jim Kaat (8), Minn. (A) SP (’61-’83) (1991) – Kaat would probably be in the Hall today if his ’62-’66-’74-’75 had instead occurred consecutively. His best seasons don’t seem to coincide with Minnesota’s best as a team in the ‘60s either. Value is value in my system, and this is where he deserves to rank.
8. Rusty Staub (9), Hou. – N.Y. (N), RF (’63-’81) (1996) – In my system, I have to take 9400 AB’s of 0.295 EQA over 6400 AB’s at 0.301. Wynn has the bigger peak, but Staub has 5 more seasons to his career.
9. Rick Reuschel (10), Chic. – S.F. (N) SP (’72-’90) (1996) – On the other hand, if Reuschel is going in first ballot, then it probably is a weak ballot. Nearly equals the value of Kaat in 700 fewer innings.
10. Jack Morris (11), Detr. (A) SP (’78-’94) (2001) – I like my system of discounting the pitchers for their “effort” at the bat, but Morris points out how I need to somehow discount the AL pitchers in the DH era. Morris is nearly equal to Reuschel in my system because of Rick’s lack of prowess at the plate. By eyeball, Jack might drop 2-3 spots because of this issue; he’s still ballot-worthy until I resolve the discrepancy.
11. Graig Nettles (12), N.Y. (A) 3B (’69-’88) (1997) – How can the Hall not find enough 3B to honor?
12. Alejandro Oms (13), Cuba (--), CF (‘21-‘37) (1965) – The Cuban resume still causes me grief, but enough of you have put him in the top ten that I have to rethink my second-guessing. I won’t slot him immediately to my first-guess slot just yet.
13. Charlie Hough (14), L.A. (N) – Tex. (A) SP (’70-’94) (2004) – Charlie, Dutch. Dutch, Charlie.
14. Bret Saberhagen (15), K.C. (A) SP (’84-’99) (2005) – Just below Hough, just above Leonard (who drops as a result).
15. Dutch Leonard (--), Wash. (A) SP (’34-’53) (1972) – Amazing how valuable he was before and after the war, the lost time to injury in ’42 and the apparent effects of recovery in ’43-’44 keep him from the 15-18 votes that all his equals seem to be getting. Penalize one guy for playing too good during the war, penalize another for not playing good enough...

--. Mark Langston (--), Sea. – Cal. (A), SP (’84-’99) (2006)
--. Mickey Lolich (--), Detr. (A), SP (’63-’76) (2006) – Somebody’s got to be the worst P-Hall member, and I’ve just elected two worthy candidates for the title.

Bob Johnson (1985) – It’s rather sad when I have to explain why players in the P-Hall aren’t on the ballot. Would you elect some of the pitchers above already?
Reggie Smith – My P-Hall picks look good compared to Reggie Smith making the actual HOM.
Bucky Walters (1961) – He’s just as good as Leonard, Trout, Koosman and Lolich.
Dick Redding – The bar for NeL pitchers has been set higher than this, IMO. The jump from Ray Brown to Bill Foster, Mendez and Redding will keep them all out of my Hall.
Kirby Puckett – Equal in value to Magee (HOM), Hooper (P-Hall), and Mattingly. If Puckett had this career in the ‘10s-‘20s, he’d be in the Hall. In the ‘80s, it’s just way too common.
Gavvy Cravath – Not enough ML AB’s.

Two players were in last year’s top ten, AND in my top 15 this year!
   90. Andrew M Posted: October 22, 2007 at 03:52 AM (#2588295)
2006 Ballot
In an ideal world, I’d like to place Will Clark 5th on the ballot and everyone else in a tie for 8th. I can’t remember a ballot where I felt the difference between 1-30 was so slight.

1. Will Clark. I think our group overrates him—is he really that much better than Norm Cash or Orlando Cepeda? Or Jack Clark—who finished 80th on the last ballot? I think he deserves induction, but he’s a weak number 1.

2. Bob Johnson. Probably too high, but it’s hard not to think he would already be in the HoM had he gotten an earlier start. There are a bunch of OFs clustered in the 300 WS/100 WARP range. Johnson, though, seems slightly more meritorious than the rest: Career OPS+ 138, 10 times in AL top 10. EQA .308 compares favorably to other OF candidates. Also had a good glove.

3. Tommy Bridges. Despite finishing in the AL top 10 in innings five times, he was not much of a workhorse. When he did pitch, though, he was very good. He finished his career with just fewer than 3,000 IP and his top ERA+ season is 147. He’s also probably missing 360 or so innings from 1944 and 45, and he had six seasons in which his ERA+ was between 140 and 147 (and ten seasons in which he was in the top 10 in the AL.)

4. Larry Doyle. There doesn’t seem to be much middle ground with Doyle. The arguments against him, as I understand them, are that some statistics show he couldn’t field at all, the NL wasn’t very good, the AL had better 2B play, guys like Al Bridwell were bigger contributors to those great Giants teams, and the replacement level for 1910s 2Bs was very high. On the plus side, he looks to me like the best offensive player on the best offensive team in the league 1911-1913, he had a career OPS+ of 126 and OWP of .666, and was consistently in the NL top 10 in HRs, slugging pct., and a variety of other offensive statistics. He also won an MVP award and was the best 2B in the NL by Win Shares for 7 seasons and 2nd best for a couple of others. And his fielding didn’t seem to bother his manager or contemporary observers as much as it bothers us. By all accounts Doyle played extremely hard and captained the team for several years. I think that adds up to a valuable player.

5. Dave Bancroft. Great glove, above average hitter, walked a lot. Had some durability issues, but ended up with over 110 WARP(1) and had a couple of 10+ WARP seasons, including one (1921) where one could reasonably argue that he was more valuable than any position player in the NL not named Rogers Hornsby.

6. Luis Tiant. An odd career. Had the misfortune to have his best season the same year as McLain won 31 games. I’d argue Tiant was the better pitcher that year--though it’s close when you account for McLain’s 336 innings. Was then injured for a few years before coming back and having several excellent seasons for the Red Sox in the mid 70s.

7. Tommie Leach. Played two important defensive positions well and generated a decent amount of offensive value while doing it. Long career for his era.

8. Reggie Smith. I think this is the first time I’ve voted for him, which now clearly seems like a mistake. I see him and B. Johnson as being similarly qualified. WARP likes Johnson more than Smith, but it’s close.

9. Phil Rizzuto. Great glove, probably not as good a hitter as Bancroft. Missing essentially 4 seasons at age 25-28 because of WW2.

10. Dale Murphy. I’m not sure his peak isn’t higher than anyone else I have listed here. Murphy posted 4 30+ WS seasons (and 5 10+ WARP) seasons between 1980-1987 while rarely missing a game. No idea what happened after that.

11. Bucky Walters. You can’t be much better than he was in 1939. Also the best pitcher in the NL in 1940, perhaps 1941, 1944. Could also hit and field.

12. Bob Elliott. Best 3B in the NL from 1943-50. Consistently ranked in the top 10 in the NL in WS and OPS+ over that period. Above average glove

13. George J. Burns. Another guy who rarely missed a game. He also got on base a lot, could field and run, had 3 MVP caliber seasons (1914, 1917, 1919) and averaged close to 27 Win Shares a season for a decade. It isn’t a stretch to think of him as having been best OF in the NL from 1913-1920, which is impressive in any era and league.

14. Tony Perez. Played about as many games at 3B as Paul Molitor. Hung around long enough to accumulate almost 11,000 PAs, but his rate numbers would look better had he retired at age 35.

15. Urban Shocker. Somewhere in the mix with Bridges, Walters, Stieb, Pierce, et al.

Next 15
Vern Stephens
Addie Joss
Craig Nettles
Ken Singleton
Tommy John
Dick Redding
Alejandro Oms
Norm Cash
Vic Willis
Dave Concepcion
Bret Saberhagen
Jimmy Ryan
Andre Dawson
Geo. Van Haltren
Johnny Evers

Required disclosures:
Dick Redding. I’ve had him on and off the ballot over the years. I think he’s a solid candidate.
Kirby Puckett. Just not enough.
Alejandro Oms. I had him labeled as being somewhat peakless. Perhaps that’s unfair. I wouldn’t oppose his election, but I wouldn’t think not admitting him was a grave injustice.
Gavvy Cravath. Perhaps would have been more valuable in a different era and less valuable in a different park. He has an interesting argument, but so does Jack Fournier. I think I’d vote for Chuck Klein over Cravath, actually.
   91. andrew siegel Posted: October 22, 2007 at 07:12 AM (#2588511)
I vote subjectively taking all info into account. I weigh 7-year prime and career (measured over a true replacement baseline) approximately equally, but have a soft spot for players with sufficient quantity and quality who spread it out over more seasons due to playing time concerns. I began the project as a WS voter (with subjective modifications) but have become more eclectic as we have gone on. I am currently a big fan of Dan R.'s numbers though I reject the salary estimator and think Dan gives lots of credit to players in the 1970s that better should have gone to the managers and GMs. For pitchers, I basically use the WARP/JOe D. numbers, though I am skeptical of their love for modern hurlers.

(1) Will Clark (new)--A weak number 1, but still the class of the group. Over a 9-year period, he had the 4th best OWP in the game and his adjusted career totals are good enough to be a (minor) plus.

(2) Bridges (2nd)--Like Cash, Schang, Ted Lyons, Roush, etc., he's underrated by our tendency to focus on seasonal numbers (so why so much love for Whitaker?). Put up lots of quality and sufficient quantity. I have him with 8 truly excellent seasons--no pitcher outside the HoM has more. Every time I stumble upon a new metric, he leads a dozen or so HOM pitchers. Your mileage may vary on how to treat different kinds of pitchers, but I don't see how anyone can have him outside the top 30 or 35.

(3) Oms (3rd)--The contemporaries thought he was an All-Time great and the numbers (as thin as they are) back them up. Better than Dawson with both the glove and the bat.

(4) Reggie Smith (4th)--Very similar on all dimensions to Cash and Wynn; similar offensively to Roush and Johnson. A bit more consistent than Wynn. More career value than Dale Murphy in a similar opportunity context. Similar career value to Dawson in a smaller opportunity context. Add that all up and he is an underrated gem.

(5) Leach (5th)--If you subtract Brooks Robinson's final useless seasons and project Leach's years out to 162 games, Robinson and Leach have almost identical EQA's and defensive rates in a very similar number of games. The only difference is that half of Leach's games were in CF rather than 3B. Hard to imagine that keeping him out of the HoM. A lot like Darrell Evans, only with contemporary reports that match his stellar defensive numbers.

(6) Ben Taylor (6th)--I missed the boat on him. I had him comped to Konetchy and, therefore, outside the top 50. But (1) I had Konetchy too low and (2) his offense was one rung better than Ed's. As a result, he is close to Hernandez and pretty much a dead ringer for Cash.

(7) Bob Johnson (8th)--Doesn't jump out at you, but no major knocks on his resume--highest OWP of any long-career OF still on the board, over 300 WS with proper minor leaue credit even playing for bad teams, great consistency, excellent fielder for his position. His era and position are already well-represented and he doesn't have a great peak, but in the imperfect world we now find ourselves iin those are small flaws.

(8) Urban Shocker (9th)--Joe makes his case well. He didn't pitch a ton of innings or a ton of years but--when you combine durability and quality and adjust for defense--he was one of the best handful of pitchers in the game for a decade. A lot like Tommy Bridges or Dave Stieb or Billy Pierce.

(9) Norm Cash (7th)--Dropped yet another a few spots on further qualms about league quality, but still deserves induction. Put up lots of quality and quantity; quality hidden by WS b/c/ he split his games among more seasons.

(10) Cravath (11th)--I give full minor league credit and see him as the best hitter not in HoM. The knock is that the other candidates for that title (folks like Tiernan, Browning, Fournier, and Frank Howard) are much further down ballot.

(11) Dale Murphy (12th)--His case rests on six seasons. We have elected a bunch of guys who reached a similar plateau for seven years (e.g., Wynn) and rejected a number who were there for only four or five (e.g., Parker). Six seasons is a very close call.

(12) Elston Howard (nr/24th)--After much mack-and-forth, I've decided to switch to a purely subjective methodology with him and project what someone of his skills would have done in the majors if born white. I think it is very likely that he would have been a starting catcher in the bigs for some of the years he waited behind Berra if he were fairly evaluated by all the major league teams. Players as good as Howard rarely sit for that long.

(13) Dick Lundy (nr/30th)--Even if you take 5% off the new MLEs, he is a deadringer for contemporary Dave Bancroft (who sat in this spot on the ballot last week), only with a substantially longer career. Might rise further in the coming years.

(14) John McGraw (nr/21st)--I've always liked Frank Chance better (and still do as a hitter) but hadn't been giving enough credit to McGraw's baserunning or defensive value.

(15) Elliot (10th)--My tools aren't good enough to distinguish between him and Boyer. Nettles, Bell, Bando, and Cey are also similar, but the glut of 3B in the 1970's suggests that something was different then than when Elliot (and perhaps Boyer) were playing. Drops based upon (1) direct comparison to McGraw who was probably had a more valuable prime even taking playing time concerns into account and (2)new look at the evidence on when 3B hitting began to improve (hint: way earlier than I would have guessed).

Schang, Chance, Cey, Nettles, Bancroft, Saberhagen, and Lee Smith are the next group. I have no idea what order I have those guys.

Kirby is out of the top 60 without strike and DH adjustments; with those he is in the 30's, just behind Wally Berger.

Bucky Walters is in the 50's; he has a great peak but a lot of that is his defense. When you adjust for defense, I prefer Dizzy Dean and Dizzy Trout.

Dick Redding's numbers don't match his reputation. He's somewhere around 80th.

Albert Belle is in the top 35, but his offense isn't as dominant as I expected. Over the 7 years that include his 6 big seasons, Belle only has the 10th best OWP in the majors. When you take into account playing time (a plus for him) and defense (a comparative negative), he's no more than the 15th or 20th best player in the majors over that period. While a run like that is enough to make someone an HoMer with sufficient career length, it's not enough by itself; I'll take Sheffield, Thome, Thomas, or Manny over Belle to name a few.

Hershiser (and the other new guys aren't close).
   92. Kenn Posted: October 22, 2007 at 10:56 AM (#2588527)
I mostly look at career value over a fairly high replacement level, generous with credit for missed time and fielding. Think OPS+ & ERA+ times playing time, but with a ton of adjustments, and I have started keeping more peak-oriented and component part tallies alongside, which I use to bump players up and down on the final ballot. I went back in time and worked my PHOM out until about the 70s, which helps me decide which borderliners I really like best.

1. Reggie Smith (2) - Looks extremely strong to me. A bit surprising, as poor in-season durability was not what I'd like, but it was still a fairly long career, with good defensive value as well.

2. Tommie Bridges (3) - Love the solid run of years from 1932-1942. Throw in a little war credit and comes out as my favorite backlog pitcher.

3. Wally Schang (4) - I see Schang as even more deserving this week, in comparison to other players from his time. Solid bat and glove over a long career.

4. Will Clark (N/A) – Easily the best available 1B, IMO, but that isn’t necessarily saying much. Solid all around, though, which is worth a lot in the backlog.

5. Bus Clarkson (5) - I greatly appreciate the work done here on MLEs, though I find I have to discount them a bit or I get a stack of NLs at the top of the ballot. I'm convinced enough by the argument that Clarkson's era is underrepresented to discount him less than the rest (and even less this week than last) which places him here.

6. Phil Rizzuto (6) - I give him three years of war credit, at his average level two years before and after. With an excellent fielding rating, he keeps looking better.

7. Bill Monroe (7) - My favorite of the negro league candidates, based on the most recent MLE's posted here, though discounted as explained under Clarkson.

8. Ed Cicotte (8) - I dropped pitchers from his era a bit (Joss no longer on ballot), but pitcher hitting has taken on a bigger factor than before, and he was good at it.

9. Don Newcombe (12) - Even with credit for disruptions to his career (2 MiL, 2 War), the career is not especially long, only 13 years, but the years we have are all very strong except his first back from war. I think it is reasonable to see the entire stretch of that quality, which is the longest such streak among my borderline pitchers.

10. Dave Bancroft (13) - Slick-fielding SS with a good bat over a fairly long career, with both those skills being especially valuable for the first half of that time.

11. Dave Concepcion (15) - I'd never thought much of his HOF arguements before this project, but I do see long-time fielding as quite valuable, and his bat isn't as bad as I had thought.

12. Kirby Puckett (9) – Looking around fielding stats in his time, I’ll buy into the view that Kirby was overrated, but not to the extent that some see. He drops a bit, and is almost indistinguishable from Murphy and Bonds.

13. Dale Murphy (24) – Almost identical value in my system to Puckett; if Puckett still belongs on my ballot, Murphy goes right there with him.

14. Bucky Walters (16) – Steadily crept up onto ballot. I find his peripherals really ugly, but the results are solid, and he helps himself a good deal with his bat.

15. Wilbur Cooper (17) – Someone I’d overlooked earlier. Very consistent for a good stretch of time, Bridges or Newcombe light.

16. Bob Johnson – Solid, but never quite stands out for me.
17. Jimmy Ryan – The forgotten CF
18. Virgil Trucks
19. Craig Nettles
20. Bobby Bonds
21. Gavvy Cravath – Like him, probably the last of my PHOM outfielders.
22. Elston Howard
23. Spotswood Poles
24. Ron Cey
25. Jim McCormick
26. Tommy Leach
27. Vern Stephens
28. Dick Redding
29. Ernie Lombardi
30. Rick Reuschel

Others:
Alejandro Oms and Albert Belle: Both somewhere in next 10. Belle lacks fielding value I like to see, though he seems farther right now from Puckett and Murphy than he deserves. Oms seems similar to Johnson to me, slightly behind. Perhaps he deserves more fielding credit, but I’m a bit harsh on the remaining NeL from that era. Both will likely move up, but not to ballot.
   93. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 22, 2007 at 11:28 AM (#2588531)
37 ballots tallied so far. Still missing ballots from: Jim Sp, yest, Tom D, Mike Webber, Don F, Al Peterson, DavidFoss, mulder and scully, the Commish, Thane of Bagarath, Chris Cobb, Devin McCullen, Esteban Rivera, Max Parkinson, KJOK, rico varian, Dan Rosenheck and 'zop.
   94. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 22, 2007 at 11:54 AM (#2588533)
Nice to see you back, Trevor!
   95. Max Parkinson Posted: October 22, 2007 at 12:05 PM (#2588536)
2006 ballot

I tend towards the peak/prime end of this group, with about half of the value players can earn in my system afforded to their best 7-9 or less years. My basic valuations are based on how well a player performs relative to his competition, although I also make allowances for offensive position - I like to have leadoff hitters, and power hitters, and basestealers, and glove guys. One significant way in which I may deviate from the consensus here is that I prefer guys who excel in one (but certainly more is good) facet of the game, where people here like to root for the all-rounders, possibly because they've been influenced by James, and believe that those guys are not sufficiently represented in the Coop.

Being the best Hitter, or Power Hitter, or a superlative glove man means something to me that being pretty good at everything doesn't. Hence I don't see Jimmy Wynn as very worthy, but apparently enough of you all do. Also, I’m less impressed with offensive players whose main talent was walking than the group as a whole (yest obviously aside) – players like Darrell Evans and Ken Singleton are much lower for me than the consensus.

I am pretty confident in my rankings of hitters against other hitters, and pitchers against other pitchers, and then try my best to fit them together...

Oh, and I don't give war credit - to this point, it's kept only Pee Wee Reese and Joe Gordon out of my Hall of Merit relative to the group's inductees.

1. Dick Redding

A strong early peak and longish career helps to overcome the lackluster middle parts of his career.

2. Dizzy Dean

I agree with Marc – for voters who really value peaks, Dean is this projects biggest oversight.

3. John McGraw

If we were factoring in managerial success, he would have been in this hall as early as the ‘Coop. Alas, it’s looking tough for him here on playing alone. Not for me, though.

4. Will Clark

The Thrill was really a victim of timing when it came to the HoF. By the time that he came up for election, the combination of new mallparks, a tighter ball and chemicals had rendered his very impressive peak worthless in the voters’ eyes. They really missed it. This man was a monster in his time.

5. Gavvy Cravath

Another adjustment. Was the best RF in the game for a good 6 year stretch, with MVP-calibre seasons thrown in. I have resisted adding too much credit for MiL performance, but I couldn’t keep him from the ballot any longer.

6. Bucky Walters

A very good peak, and good hitter to boot. He’s the edge right now for elected pitchers.

7. (N)Ed Williamson

Between McGraw and Williamson, we could shore up the 3B drought pretty quick.

8. Ben Taylor

A long career, great glove 1B who played between the ABC boys and Gehrig/Foxx. If we need to fill a positional gap, here’s your man.

9. Albert Belle

Another terror with the bat. 103 Extra Base Hits in 143 games. Wow.

10. Dick Lundy

Now that the MLEs run closer to his reputation… I may be underrating him here, as a Bobby Wallace clone, but he’s on the doorstep of my personal Hall, and will probably jump in.

11. George Burns

Maybe I’m crazy, but if he had put up the exact same numbers, and been an average CF as opposed to a terrific LF (that is, no change to his talent or performance, just what was written on the lineup card), I think he’d be in already.

12. Bobby Veach

Someone here (DanG?) used to post lists of top OPS+ by time period. Of the 1900-1920 group, the only unelected members of the top 20 are Cravath (no. 1), Veach and Bresnahan….

13. Luis Tiant

For me, he’s just outside in/out line. I wouldn’t cry if he makes it or he doesn’t.

14. Don Newcombe

While I don’t give war credit for Korea, I believe that he would have contributed earlier than he did if not for the colour line. Alas, if he could have just got two more outs in his most famous outing, none of us would have ever said the name Bobby Thomson.

15. Jim Rice

A monster for several years – lots of votes here for Singleton, and very very few for Rice. Recall that their best years were both ’77-’82 or so. I’d love to hear what GM at the time would have traded Rice for Singleton straight up.


Others of Note:

Johnson – In the ‘30s along with Klein and Hack Wilson.

Puckett – I was surprised to find how low my system ranked him. The bonus that he gets for dragging two teams to World Series titles still only gets him into the ‘40s.

Alejandro Oms – His 125 MLE OPS+, including what may have been good CF defense isn’t enough to get him over top of Puckett, who had a 124 OPS+, very good CF defense, and post-season heroics.

Ken Singleton – see Jim Rice comment. Another player who the statheads love due to the walks, but is very overrated just looking at RC or OPS.
   96. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: October 22, 2007 at 01:39 PM (#2588587)
Rank Player Salary 
1 Dick Lundy 
$178,239,117 When assessing NgL starsreputation and stats
 are both necessary conditions 
for my voteLundy now has both.
2 Rick Reuschel The late-70's through the 80's crushed pitcher value, and when
 you account 
for thisReuschel should be inHT to those who saw it first.
3 Phil Rizzuto $173,175,176 With war credit, and malaria credit for 1946he 
nudges above the rest of the MLB SS backlog
.
4 Graig Nettles $163,563,273 
5 Bret Saberhagen  See Reuschel
.
6 John McGraw $163,585,393 Awesome peak ratecrappy durabilityplayed 
in an era conducive 
for his skills
7 Dagoberto Campaneris 
$167,565,867 Better than Concepcionbut dung slightly 
juuuust in 
case the SS drought wasn't entirely contextual.
8 Will Clark $162,263,422 Very very good, a peak masked by context, but not 
enough bat to be high-ballot at 1B
9 Johnny Pesky $161,323,415 All war credit
10 Luis Tiant  Didn'
throw that many innings in his great yearsbut the innings 
he threw were hellaciously effective
11 Dwight Gooden  1985 might be 
$50milin my salary estimator once I have 
concrete pitching 
#'s to use.
12 David Concepción $159,343,562 Pass.
13 Burleigh Grimes  His best rate year doesn’t line up with his dominant durability 
years
but he pitched TONS of innings at a good-enough rate.
14 Reggie Smith $158,064,406 With one year of Japan credit
15 Don Newcombe $157,393,547 With Korea creditThere's a pitcher drought from 
the 40'
sI suspect we've been too stingy in judging the effect of the war(s) upon pitchers. 

----------------------
OFF BALLOT

Cravath and Johnson are just off, in the 15-20 range. Puckett is grossly overrated by the
electorate. I see no evidence that Oms or Redding are superior to MLB candidates in the
backlog. If Belle didn't play a corner, he'd be Meritorious. Walters' peak came in front of
one of the great defenses in history.
   97. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: October 22, 2007 at 02:09 PM (#2588614)
Nice formatting, 'zop.
   98. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: October 22, 2007 at 02:23 PM (#2588632)
I had it formatted so that the text was only on the line of the voter...one of the mods must have changed it. I figured that since it fit on my 12.1 inch laptop, it would fit for everyone, but apparently someone is using an 8" screen.
   99. Mike Webber Posted: October 22, 2007 at 02:57 PM (#2588685)
Mostly Win Shares, career over peak over prime. Lobster over steak over prime rib.

1) TOMMY LEACH – 328 Win Shares, only one MVP type season, 8 seasons 20+ Win Shares. Good peak, excellent defensive player at third and in centerfield. Never had a guy at the top of my ballot I liked less.
2) PHIL RIZZUTO – 231 Win Shares, one MVP type seasons, 7 seasons 20+ Win Shares. With a conservative 60 or so win shares during the war, I move him ahead of Sewell. Same arguments as Nellie Fox, only with a 3-year hole in his career at ages 25 to 27, plus a bad return to MLB in 1946.
3) ALE OMS Based on the info we have I would consider him just above the in/out line for outfielders.
4) WILL CLARK Conservative 1st year placement.
5) George Van Haltren Huge Career, plus short schedule. Even clipping his pitching credit.
6) KIRBY PUCKETT281 Win Shares, two MVP type seasons, 10 seasons 20+ Win Shares. In the murky centerfield ranking area with Duffy, Van Haltren, Carey, Pinson and well, I’l throw Amos Otis in here too as a Royals fan.
7) SAL BANDO - 283 Win Shares, two MVP type seasons, 9 seasons 20+ Win Shares. I believe he was better than Ken Boyer, but his home parks helped disguise it. The big seasons are what puts him ahead of Boyer.
8) TONY PEREZ 349 Win Shares, three MVP type seasons, 8 seasons 20+ Win Shares. Hits all my targets for a ballot candidate, long career, big seasons, a top 25 player at his position.
9) NORM CASH 315 Win Shares, only one MVP type season, 8 seasons 20+ Win Shares.
10) BRET SABERHAGEN 193 Win Shares, Royal bias on full display. Actually I think he just has the best argument for any pitcher right now.
11) ELSTON HOWARD 203 Win Shares, 1 MVP type season, 4 20 + Win Share seasons, basically he has Thurman Munson’s career despite only having 23 win shares before age 29.
12) KEN SINGLETON 302 win shares, 3 MVP type seasons, 7 20+ win share seasons. Big Seasons sneak him onto the bottom of my ballot.
13) LOU BROCK – 348 Win Shares, three MVP type seasons, 11 straight seasons 20+ Win Shares. As a career voter I’ll put him here. Batting leadoff he had great opportunity to rack up counting stats.
14) LUIS TIANT 256 Win Shares – poor timing of his big years.
15) CARL MAYS 256 Win Shares, 2 MVP type seasons, 8 20 + Win share seasons


Disclosures:

Bucky Walters – may be penalizing his WW2 pitching too much.

Reggie Smith – I don’t think his Japan numbers are worth any credit. MLB pinch-hitter when he went over.

Bob Johnson – in the glut of very good outfielders, Cravath, Reggie Smith, Roy White, Murcer, and Dawson.

Cannonball Dick Redding – obviously very good, but very hard to quantify.
   100. Thane of Bagarth Posted: October 22, 2007 at 03:28 PM (#2588726)
2006 Ballot
My ranking system heavily weights 5 year peaks, but additional career value can add up, too. I rely primarily on the uberstats, with about a 60/40 split between WARP and WS. I’m rather liberal with war and minor league credit. I use a catcher bonus of up to 10% based on the proportion of a player’s career spent behind the plate.

I think all of the WARP #s I’m using were up to date as of the beginning of December. I have already run the numbers for all “serious” eligibles (i.e. >200 career Win Shares) through this election

1) Will Clark
His 5 year Win Shares peak of 168 sets him apart from this year’s crowd—not by a huge margin, but at least enough to be number one. WARP rates him pretty well, too.

2) Tony Perez
Perez is not terribly dissimilar from Staub—they’re almost identical by Win Shares. His peak according to WARP is substantially better than Staub’s (46.6 to 40.5) and he’s got more career value to boot (109.5 to 102.7), so Tony gets the edge.

3) Rusty Staub
By Win Shares he looks like a solid HoMer: 358 career, 145 top-5 consecutive. By WARP he’s a bit more marginal: 40.5 top 5 WARP3 isn’t super, but 102.7 career is respectable.

4) Frank Tanana
His WARP totals are very good (111 WARP3 career, 47 top 5 seasons), but Win Shares has him as run of the mill. I lean a little more towards WARP in my rankings so Tanana is in the top half of the ballot this year.

5) Bucky Walters
A very good pitcher…I’m not convinced that he needs to be docked for the superb Reds defense more than the DTs already do.

6) Ben Taylor
The lack of data from his prime years makes all of this highly speculative, but I’m ranking him as if he was Keith Hernandez with a little less peak and more career (career totals of around 105 WARP3 and 320 Win Shares; with top 5s of 46 and 135, respectively).

7) Bob Johnson
100 WARP3, 287 WS for career plus Minor League credit makes him a legit HoM candidate.

8) Dick Redding
2nd best NeL pitcher of the deaball era, I’m hoping we’ll give him his due eventually.

9) Kirby Puckett
Would be greatly helped if he had 3-4 more years in the rabbit-ball era of the late ‘90s. He’s also hurt a little in that he didn’t get to add 2-3 filler years at the beginning of his career.

10) Bobby Bonds
Similar in career value to Indian Bob (93 WARP3, 302 WS). 149 WS in top five consecutive seasons is impressive, though not unprecedented.

11) Graig Nettles
Although his peak numbers are a little lower than Bonds & Singleton, career totals are a little better…Nettles ends up somewhere in the middle.

12) George Van Haltren
GVH seems to be an obvious HoMer if you just look at Win Shares (344 career, 133 top 5 consecutive—before season length adjustments); however, WARP (especially WARP3) is not nearly as favorable: 86.5 career, 36.4 top 5.

13) Ken Singleton
Similar overall career and peak value to Bonds. Both have 302 WS, just over 90 WARP3; top 5s of about 150 WS, 46(BB)/48(KS) WARP3

14) Dale Murphy
Over half of his career value comes from an impressive 5-year peak. Razor thin margin separates him from Singleton.

15) Albert Belle
Top 5 WARP3 of 59.2 is tops among eligible players this election. His truncated career didn’t let him add too much beyond that, but it’s enough to sneak him onto the back end of my ballot.

The Rest of the Top 50
16) Luis Tiant
17) Bill Monroe
18) Jimmy Ryan
19) Gavy Cravath—A heavy dose of MiL credit gives him the career bulk, which, when added to his peak, makes him a ballot contender.
20) Dizzy Trout
21) Tommy John
22) Buddy Bell
23) Sam Rice
25) Brett Butler
25) Don Mattingly
26) Tommy Leach—He’s been stuck in the 20s on my ballot forever.
27) Bus Clarkson
28) Rabbit Maranville
29) Norm Cash
30) Jim Kaat
31) Dave Parker
32) Reggie Smith—A solid member of the HoVG. I do give him a teensy smidge of Japan credit. I don’t really see anything in his numbers that separates him definitively from the likes of Parker, or Cash.
33) Jack Clark
34) Buzz Arlett
35) Burleigh Grimes
36) Jack Quinn
37) Bob Elliot
38) Jose Cruz
39) Harry Hooper
40) Dave Concepcion
41) Tony Phillips
42) Ron Cey
43) Vada Pinson
44) Phil Rizzuto
45) Alejandro Oms—I’ve always considered Duffy a good comp for Oms, which means they’ll both be stuck in my backlog unless one or the other is elected.
46) Hugh Duffy—His uberstat numbers don’t convince me it’s a mistake to rank him here, though he isn’t terribly far behind some of the OFs at the bottom of my ballot.
47) Rick Reuschel
48) Orlando Cepeda
49) Cesar Cedeno
50) Dick Lundy

93) Orel Hershiser—I like Saberhagen better.

100+) Dwight Gooden
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