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— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best

Monday, October 15, 2007

2006 Ballot (Elect Three)

Prominent new candidates: Will Clark, Albert Belle, Orel Hershiser and Dwight Gooden.

Top-ten returnees: Bob Johnson, Alejandro Oms, Reggie Smith, Bucky Walters, Cannonball Dick Redding, Kirby Puckett and Gavvy Cravath.

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 15, 2007 at 03:04 AM | 167 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   101. yest Posted: October 22, 2007 at 03:29 PM (#2588728)
2006 ballot

Clark , To Be Determened, and TBD make my PHOM this year

1. Don Mattingly should have got a ring in 94 (made my personal HoM in 2001)
2. Kirby Puckett was there ever athlete who lost his reputation like he did (made my personal HoM in 2001)
3. Pie Traynor most 3B putouts 7 times (made my personal HoM in 1942)
4. Chuck Klein 4 hr titles 1 triple crown (made my personal HoM in 1951)
5. Tony Oliva most hits 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1983)
6. Mickey Welch please see his thread (made my personal HoM all the way back in 1898)
7. Sam Rice imagine if he would have started earlier (made my personal HoM in 1940)
8. Hack Wilson 4 hr titles RBI season record (made my personal HoM in 1940)
9. Hugh Duffy had 100 runs or RBIs every full year he played (made my personal HoM in 1908)
10. Addie Joss 2nd in era (made my personal HoM in 1918)
11. George Kell very good hitter and fielder at important and under elected position (made my personal HoM in 1963)
12. Bill Madlock 4 batting tittles (made my personal HoM in 1994)
13. Al Oliver 1 batting title (made my personal HoM in 1991)
14. Jim Rice hit 300 7 times (made my personal HoM in 1995)
15. Will Clark (makes my personal HoM this year)
16. Harvey Kuenn led AL shortstops in putouts twice assists once (made my personal HoM in 1972)
17. Heinie Manush 330 batting avg. (made my personal HoM in 1957)
18. Hilton Smith see his thread (made my personal HoM in 1964)
19. Ray Schalk the best catcher ever (made my personal HoM in 1938)
20. George Van Haltren 31st in runs (made my personal HoM in 1925)
21. Jimmy Ryan 30th in runs (made my personal HoM in 1926)
22. Luis Aparicio being a better offensive player then Rabbit puts him here (made my personal HoM in 1979)
23. Jake Daubert 29th in triples (made my personal HoM in 1930)
24. Bobby Veach most doubles twice (made my personal HoM in 1931)
25. Bill Mazeroski 2nd greatest (fielding) 2nd baseman (McPhee‘s 1) ever (made my personal HoM in 1985)
26. Roy Thomas most times on base 6 times (made my personal HoM in 1985)
27. Dave Parker would be higher with out his extra credit (made my personal HoM in 1997)
28. Gavvy Cravath most active HRs 1918, 1919 and 1920 (made my personal HoM in 1928)
29. Lou Brock like the steals more then most (made my personal HoM in 1985)
30. Kiki Cuyler 2299 hits (made my personal HoM in 1967)
31. Lloyd Waner had the most OF putouts 4 times, finished 2nd once and finished 3rd twice (made my personal HoM in 1967)
32. Ginger Beaumont 1902 batting title (made my personal HoM in 1932)
33. John McGraw 3rd in on base percentage (made my personal HoM in 1930)
34. Steve Garvey 200 hits 6 times (made my personal HoM in 1994)
35. Jim Bottomley 2313 hits (made my personal HoM in 1968)
36. Levi Meyerle best rate season ever (made my personal HoM in 1975)
37. Eddie Yost most walks 6 times most times on base 3 times (made my personal HoM in 1987)
38. Rabbit Maranville best shortstop before Ozzie moves down do to reading accounts on how his drinking hurt his team more then the numbers show(made my personal HoM in 1939)
39. George J. Burns most walks 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1932)
40. Orlando Cepada 297 batting avg 379 HRs (made my personal HoM in 1987)
41. Deacon Phillippe best walks/9 IP in the 20th centaury (made my personal HoM in 1988)
42. Babe Adams led in WHIP 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1992)
43. Dave Bancroft led SS in range factor 7 times (made my personal HoM in 2002)
44. Stuffy McInnis led in fielding% 6 times (made my personal HoM in 1987)
45. Jack Morris in short (because unfortunately I don‘t have time to post an extensive search on the subject) looking over retrosheet I found his ERA to be inflated somewhat by a few bad performances that overstate his ERA to win expectation leading many to believe his win record was inflated by his teammates more then I think is true though I found his teamates did prevent him from getting the loss what appears to be more then normal
for example in 1984 he went 19-11 with a 3.60 era though he only had 2 wins where he gave up more then 4 ER
there a basically few games in which rose his ERA to heights above his expected win level give him the loss but each of these games effects his era more then 1 game should.
on 6-2-1984 in 6.0 IP he gave up 5 runs 5 being ER raising his era from 1.88 to 2.20 getting the loss
on 6-12-1984 in 3.0 IP he gave up 6 runs 6 being ER raising his era from 2.11 to 2.51 getting the loss
on 6-29-1984 in 5.2 IP he gave up 5 runs 5 being ER raising his era from 2.39 to 2.63 getting the loss
on 7- 3-1984 in 4.1 IP he gave up 8 runs 8 being ER raising his era from 2.63 to 3.08 getting the loss
on 7- 18-1984 in 4.0 IP he gave up 7 runs 7 being ER raising his era from 2.99 to 3.34 getting the loss
on 8- 7-1984 in 1.1 IP he gave up 9 runs 8 being ER raising his era from 3.08 to 3.34 getting the loss
on 8-16-1984 in 3.2 IP he gave up 7 runs 7 being ER raising his era from 3.57 to 3.84with a no decision (give him the loss here but don’t take away the wins he did get from him)
(made my personal HoM in 2000)
46. Buddy Myer 1935 batting title (made my personal HoM in 1996)
47. Cecil Cooper most rbi twice (made my personal HoM in 1997)
48. George H. Burns most hits twice gets PCL credit (made my personal HoM in 1998)
49. Burleigh Grimes 20 wins 5 times (made my personal HoM in 2002)
50. Ron Guidry most wins from 1977-1986 (made my personal HoM in 2004)
51. Brett Butler never would have thought he would make it when I started this project (made my personal HoM in 2005)
52. Lefty Gomez most strikeouts in the 30’s (made my personal HoM in 2005)

explanation for players not on my ballot
Bob Johnson with out WWII adjustments is borderline with them he’s quite a bit lower
Andre Dawson too low a BA/OBP for my tastes and not enough power to make up for it as is he’s not so far off from my ballot and may make my pHoM in the future
Alejandro Oms is currently my highest ranked NeL not on my extended ballot
Dick Redding barring new evidence not one will make my ballot (the HoF vote has absolutely no bearing on my vote )
Bucky Walters would have been in my pHoM with out WWII adjustments as he is he’s still close to it
Tony Perez needs more of a peak to meet with his career
Reggie Smith a border line member of the Hall of Very Good
   102. yest Posted: October 22, 2007 at 03:34 PM (#2588745)
   103. mulder & scully Posted: October 22, 2007 at 03:52 PM (#2588766)
Hey everybody. wont be able to put in a ballot. wildfires in san diego. not in danger currently. in 2003, this area had to evacuate but the fires didn't reach us. my family and i will be packing and preparing today. i might be able to vote tonight, tomorrow, or ...?

Again, not in any danger, just making all the preparations so the important things are saved just in case.

Talk to everybody soon.

Kelly in San Diego
   104. sunnyday2 Posted: October 22, 2007 at 04:36 PM (#2588841)
Just for the record, among the top 10, kelly voted for Walters, Duffy, Cravath and Oms last year. His absence could be a deal-breaker.
   105. OCF Posted: October 22, 2007 at 04:48 PM (#2588856)
To my surprise, yest actually had Will Clark on his ballot. That keeps his consensus score only a hair behind karlmagus's, not totally off the deep end.

Clark , To Be Determened, and TBD make my PHOM this year

You might want to take another look at that rather long HOM/not PHOM list - especially the ones who were elected with strong support.
   106. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 22, 2007 at 05:12 PM (#2588886)
Hope you stay out of danger, Kelly.
   107. Esteban Rivera Posted: October 22, 2007 at 05:16 PM (#2588891)
2006 Ballot:

1. Bill Monroe - Seems to be one of the best second basemen of his time.

2. Hugh Duffy - His credentials are that he was for a time one of the best players and he produced during the 90's. Was an outstanding defensive outfielder.

3. Will Clark – Not a wow candidate (although he did have some wow seasons), but stands out enough from the backlog to get a ballot spot.

4. Bob Johnson – Have been overlooking Indian Bob. PCL credit counterbalances any war discounts.

5. Mickey Welch - The 300 game winner. The discussion of the past couple of years has made me realize that Welch should be a HOMer. Is not that far behind Keefe.

6. Vic Willis –Blame the cohort analysis for making me take another look at Vic.

7. Bob Elliott – The post someone made about holding his outfield time against him was true in my case. Not as much an outfielder as I had previously thought.

8. Tony Perez - See him similar to Beckley in terms of value. His prime/career value is pretty good. Third base years help.

9. Kirby Puckett - Basically a peak/prime vote. Does not have any filler years at beginning or end of career and his defense /offense combination for his position and era give him the edge over the other candidates.

10. Burleigh Grimes - Has enough big seasons and career bulk to edge him over other similar candidates.

11. Pie Traynor - I'll agree that he is not as great as the praises make him out to be but he still has a worthy resume.

12. Gavvy Cravath – One of the enigmas in terms of career interpretation. His career in the majors combined with my interpretation of the other information places him here.

13. Fred Dunlap – Chris Cobb’s study a few elections ago on the merits of Browning actually convinced me that I had Dunlap too low. Even with the discounted UA season he put quite a package together.

14. Tony Lazzeri – Agree with others that he has been somewhat overlooked by the electorate. Given credit for time in the PCL.

15. Dick Lundy – The revised numbers boost him onto my final ballot spot.

Not on ballot but made Top 10:

Bucky Walters – Actually not a bad candidate but the breaks don’t go his way (war years, sterling defenses) and are enough to keep him off my ballot for now.

Dick Redding – Too much uncertainty surrounding him to put him on my ballot.

Alejandro Oms – Not that far from my ballot. Edged out by Lundy.

Reggie Smith – The in-season durability issues are a factor for me.
   108. sunnyday2 Posted: October 22, 2007 at 05:20 PM (#2588900)
Wow, can't wait for the answer to that burning question: Who DO you select for your PHoM after Ginger Beaumont, Babe Adams and Stuffy McInnis?
   109. DavidFoss Posted: October 22, 2007 at 05:40 PM (#2588944)
2006 Ballot

1. Gavvy Cravath -- Top-notch corner OF-er of the 1910s. With MLE credit, he is at least on par with guys like Kiner.
2. John McGraw -- Great high-OBP 3B of the 1890s.
3. Larry Doyle -- MVP deadball second baseman. Position player cornerstone of the 1911-13 Giants pennant dynasty. Hit like an OF-er.
4. Dick Redding -- Great fireballer of the 1910s. His weak 1920s NeL numbers should not take away from his fine early play. I don't know

why his support hasn't held up.
5. Norm Cash -- I have him higher than I had Keith Hernandez. My favorite uninducted bat from the expansion era
6. Will Clark -- The mini-pitcher era of 1988-1992 features so many underrated hitting stars. Will's got the rate stats, but I'm

conservatively ranking him behind Cash due to career length and in-season durability issues.
7. Bob Elliott -- Excellent 3B of the 40s and early 1950s.
8. Mickey Welch -- Sure he was overrated, but we've been inducting guys like him from other eras.
9. Frank Chance -- Great hitter for great Cubs teams. Best non-Wagner hitter in the NL for several years.
10. Frank Howard -- This guy could really mash. 142 OPS+
11. Ernie Lombardi -- Catchers who hit this good are hard to find.
12. Al Rosen -- Hit like an inner circle guy for five seasons, but he came up late and then hurt his back.
13. Reggie Smith -- I had been underrating him. We've inducted the other CF's and CF/RF's that hit this well.
14. Kirby Puckett -- Just off ballot two years in a row. Finally makes it. Lots of value at key defensive position in short-ish career
15. Graig Nettles -- Long career, great fielder and some solid peak seasons.
16-20. BJohnson, Leach, Bando, Cepeda, TJohn
21-25. Belle, Cey, Tiant, Saberhagen, TPerez,
26-30. Singleton, Brock, Staub, Walters, DMurphy,
31-35. Kaat, Parker
   110. Jim Sp Posted: October 22, 2007 at 05:49 PM (#2588962)
Jim Sp in San Diego too, might not be able to get a ballot in.
   111. rico vanian Posted: October 22, 2007 at 05:53 PM (#2588968)
1) Kirby Puckett- If players like Charlie Keller get in on short (but excellent) careers; than Puckett is a shoo-in. Great peak and clutch player who shouldn’t be penalized by a freak injury. He missed the years that would have pumped up his career totals, but his legacy was made in the years he played.

2) Chuck Klein – 4 hr titles including a triple crown. His age similarity scores from age 25-34 mirror Ruth, DiMaggio and Ted Williams. Even in a bandbox ballpark, that’s not too shabby.

3) Lou Brock - The H.O.M. doesn’t appear to value stolen bases (Aparicio, for example) as highly as I do. 3000 hits is a major qualifier for me as well.
4) Luis Aparicio – nine Gold Glove awards, led the American League in stolen bases nine seasons and was named to the All Star squad 10 times. When he retired in 1973, he held the career record for shortstops for games played, double plays and assists. I saw alot of love for Ozzie, how about some for Looie?
5) Burleigh Grimes – 5 20 wins seasons, 270 total wins, very strong on the black and gray ink tables.
6) Pie Trayner – .320 career average, hit .300 or better 10 times
7)Ernie Lombardi – 2 ba titles, 8 all star games, .300 career average as a catcher.
8) Dale Murphy – A heckuva peek, gets points off for a lousy batting average.
9) Thurman Munson – A good peak, obviously not a long career, although by the time of his death, he was already pretty much finished. If Freehan is in, than Thrum deserves consideration.
10) Phil Rizzuto – SS on the team with the greatest era ever. 3 prime years lost to WW2 would have put him over 2000 hits and ended the debate.
11) Albert Belle – For 10 years, he was absolutely terrific. Uber-Peak. The fact that he was a class A jerk should not detract from his on the field greatness.
12) Jim Rice – Hit for power and average. Career flamed out, but I don’t see why Keller got more votes than him.
13) Will Clark – I was certain that Mattingly deserved to be rated higher until I drilled down on the stats.
14) Gavvy Cravath- The leading power hitter of the immediate pre-Ruth era.
15) Sam Rice – Talk about late bloomers…Virtually no stats before he was 29 and still finished just shy of 3000 hits.
16) Hugh Duffy – That .440 year is just plain sick.
17) Mickey Welch – 300 wins in a short career, but never the top pitcher in his era.
18) Dave Parker – Drugs are bad, mmkay?
19) George Foster- I think he is getting shortchanged. A terrific hitter for about 7 years.
20) Don Mattingly –
21) Addie Joss- Awesome peak
22) Gil Hodges – Great fielder, very good hitter for arguably the NL team of the 50's.
23) Joe Carter – Better than the Baylor/Smith/Johnson trifecta, but still not top 15 material.
24) Steve Garvey – Underrated due to fidelity / “feet of clay” overtones
25) Catfish Hunter- Peak and clutch
26) Tony Perez- I could have hit 20 homers and driven in 90 rbi’s a year with Rose, Morgan, Bench, etc surrounding me.
27) Tony Oliva- With good knees, he would’ve been a sure thing HOF’er
28) Jack Morris- Big game pitcher. Nuff said.
29) Tommy John &
30) Jim Kaat - Longevity certainly, Greatness no.
31) Dave Concepcion – I have him below Aparicio and Rizzuto on the SS list.
32) Bruce Sutter – Great peak, but not enough years
33) Ron Guidry – A late start and the Billy Martin/Art Fowler run em till they’re done school of arm management didn’t help. One of my all time favorites.
34) Vida Blue – What might have been…
35) Bill Madlock – Just hit, baby.
36) Don Baylor &
37) Reggie Smith The Hall of very good beckons
38) Bob Johnson (see Baylor & Smith)
39) Bucky Walters- Nice peak, but not enough.
40) Dick Redding - Another player with anecdotal, but not statistical evidence.
41) Graig Nettles – I grew up a Yankee fan and I remember the big hitting, but not until the Dodger/Yankee World Series was his fielding ever really lauded.
42) Lee Smith – Career aggregator. Scary looking mofo too.
   112. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 22, 2007 at 05:53 PM (#2588969)
Good luck to you, Jim.
   113. rico vanian Posted: October 22, 2007 at 05:55 PM (#2588973)
tried to post this once, but it didn't show up. my apologies if it shows up twice

1) Kirby Puckett- If players like Charlie Keller get in on short (but excellent) careers; than Puckett is a shoo-in. Great peak and clutch player who shouldn’t be penalized by a freak injury. He missed the years that would have pumped up his career totals, but his legacy was made in the years he played.

2) Chuck Klein – 4 hr titles including a triple crown. His age similarity scores from age 25-34 mirror Ruth, DiMaggio and Ted Williams. Even in a bandbox ballpark, that’s not too shabby.

3) Lou Brock - The H.O.M. doesn’t appear to value stolen bases (Aparicio, for example) as highly as I do. 3000 hits is a major qualifier for me as well.
4) Luis Aparicio – nine Gold Glove awards, led the American League in stolen bases nine seasons and was named to the All Star squad 10 times. When he retired in 1973, he held the career record for shortstops for games played, double plays and assists. I saw alot of love for Ozzie, how about some for Looie?
5) Burleigh Grimes – 5 20 wins seasons, 270 total wins, very strong on the black and gray ink tables.
6) Pie Trayner – .320 career average, hit .300 or better 10 times
7)Ernie Lombardi – 2 ba titles, 8 all star games, .300 career average as a catcher.

8) Dale Murphy – A heckuva peek, gets points off for a lousy batting average.
9) Thurman Munson – A good peak, obviously not a long career, although by the time of his death, he was already pretty much finished. If Freehan is in, than Thrum deserves consideration.
10) Phil Rizzuto – SS on the team with the greatest era ever. 3 prime years lost to WW2 would have put him over 2000 hits and ended the debate.
11) Albert Belle – For 10 years, he was absolutely terrific. Uber-Peak. The fact that he was a class A jerk should not detract from his on the field greatness.
12) Jim Rice – Hit for power and average. Career flamed out, but I don’t see why Keller got more votes than him.
13) Will Clark – I was certain that Mattingly deserved to be rated higher until I drilled down on the stats.

14) Gavvy Cravath- The leading power hitter of the immediate pre-Ruth era.
15) Sam Rice – Talk about late bloomers…Virtually no stats before he was 29 and still finished just shy of 3000 hits.

16) Hugh Duffy – That .440 year is just plain sick.
17) Mickey Welch – 300 wins in a short career, but never the top pitcher in his era.
18) Dave Parker – Drugs are bad, mmkay?
19) George Foster- I think he is getting shortchanged. A terrific hitter for about 7 years.
20) Don Mattingly –
21) Addie Joss- Awesome peak
22) Gil Hodges – Great fielder, very good hitter for arguably the NL team of the 50's.
23) Joe Carter – Better than the Baylor/Smith/Johnson trifecta, but still not top 15 material.
24) Steve Garvey – Underrated due to fidelity / “feet of clay” overtones
25) Catfish Hunter- Peak and clutch
26) Tony Perez- I could have hit 20 homers and driven in 90 rbi’s a year with Rose, Morgan, Bench, etc surrounding me.
27) Tony Oliva- With good knees, he would’ve been a sure thing HOF’er
28) Jack Morris- Big game pitcher. Nuff said.
29) Tommy John &
30) Jim Kaat - Longevity certainly, Greatness no.
31) Dave Concepcion – I have him below Aparicio and Rizzuto on the SS list.
32) Bruce Sutter – Great peak, but not enough years
33) Ron Guidry – A late start and the Billy Martin/Art Fowler run em till they’re done school of arm management didn’t help. One of my all time favorites.
34) Vida Blue – What might have been…
35) Bill Madlock – Just hit, baby.
36) Don Baylor &
37) Reggie Smith The Hall of very good beckons
38) Bob Johnson (see Baylor & Smith)
39) Bucky Walters- Nice peak, but not enough.
40) Dick Redding - Another player with anecdotal, but not statistical evidence.
41) Graig Nettles – I grew up a Yankee fan and I remember the big hitting, but not until the Dodger/Yankee World Series was his fielding ever really lauded.
42) Lee Smith – Career aggregator. Scary looking mofo too.
   114. sunnyday2 Posted: October 22, 2007 at 06:12 PM (#2589015)
Please feel free to go ahead and count ballots #111 and #113. No problem.
   115. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: October 22, 2007 at 06:53 PM (#2589101)
Given the circumstances way beyond their control, I would think we'd be willing to accept ballots without comments from kelly and Jim if need be. (IOW, "Take last year's, put Clark on top and Belle after Cravath" or something like that.) Of course, if they don't wish to do that, I completely understand. And I hate to open the can of worms, but I'd certainly be willing to give them an extension, although I'm not going to argue about it. [Insert profanity-laced comment about continued lack of existence of ballot committee here.]

And before you ask, mine will be up no later than 6:30.
   116. rawagman Posted: October 22, 2007 at 07:05 PM (#2589127)
I support giving time extensions to mulder & scully and Jim Sp. After all, one way that we are infinitely superior to the BBWAA is that we are less rigid.
   117. Chris Fluit Posted: October 22, 2007 at 07:19 PM (#2589171)
I'd also support waiving the explanation requirement or granting a time extension. They've certainly given us plenty of notice, and they have a valid excuse.
   118. Chris Cobb Posted: October 22, 2007 at 07:21 PM (#2589183)
2006 Ballot

I have reshuffled the players on my ballot somewhat in light of this week’s discussions. The problem with being this deep into the backlog is that when I want to move someone down, it means moving someone else up! I am pretty committed to the 15 players on my ballot as the set of players I am ready to support at present, but I’ve decided on a different order that favors modern players somewhat more heavily than it did.

Using career, total value above average, and peak rate in the three systems, I rank players against their immediate contemporaries (grouped by the decade in which they had the most value) and then integrate the decades into a combined list. Adding WAR into my system has enabled me to set a consistent historical scale. The in-out line at present for position players is about 240; for pitchers it is about 225. It will probably drop towards 235/220 as we move forward. Establishing this consistent scale and noting the different in/out line for pitchers and position players has led to considerable juggling in this year’s rankings.

(#) = Last year’s ranking
% = percentage above below approximate in-out line value for the player’s decade (old system)
Total = result of new system
Est. Total = result of old system scaled to fit new system

1. Will Clark (n/e). Total = 274.21. Clark is not a player I would have expected to land in the #1 spot on my ballot, but the entering class is weak, and the backlog is picked over, and Clark is better than I had thought. Win shares overrates his peak, but it underrates his performance during the 1990s. Dan R’s WAR shows that he was still an above average player, although he had trouble staying in the lineup. And during his peak, he was an outstanding defensive first baseman. So here he is, and I expect to see him elected easily. It’s one indication of the great clarification that the HoM has brought to player rankings that someone like Clark, who has been overlooked by the BWAA and who looks kind of borderline, is going to be elected easily. Our project has narrowed the gray area tremendously.
2. Tommy John (4). Total = 251.42. He doesn’t have a great peak, but his 12-14 year prime is about as good as any eligible pitcher’s, and he adds another 4-6 good years on top of that, which is quite extraordinary. He is the Jake Beckley of pitchers, and he ranks about where Beckley ranked before his election.
3. Graig Nettles (7). Total = 254.18. Great defender, decent hitter for a long time. Arguments that place him as the top third-base candidate available are convincing.
4. Buddy Bell (6). Total = 255.29. Better than I realized. Both WARP and WS love his defense, and he’s on the good side of the in-out line by both metrics in my system. Very similar to Nettles. I’m convinced that baserunning and gidp, which are not adequately accounted for in WS and WARP (WS does get the gdip) put Nettles ahead of Bell, even though my numbers have them reversed.
5. Luis Tiant (9). Total = 240.33. My system likes his effectiveness, even though he was not especially durable for his time. His durability in the early 1970s may have been affected by his pitching in an extreme hitter’s park.
6. Alejandro Oms (3) Est. Total = 260.37. Oms has a long, strong prime without a great peak, like most of the top candidates in my backlog pool. I think my period adjustments are leading him to be a little overrated, so I’ve dropped him a bit from where his numbers put him until I have time to do a full review of the period-adjustment problem, which is caused by WARP1’s frar.
7. Dave Concepcion (16). Total = 238.22. Increasingly convinced that he belongs. He’s brought down in my rankings by win shares, and I’m ranking him now more where WARP1 and WAR put him.
8. Reggie Smith (10) Total = 243.15. Never had dominating seasons because his batting and fielding peaks are separate and he was out of the lineup a lot, but he never had a bad year, either.
9. Dave Bancroft (8). Total = 253.25. Dropping him a bit because of problems with my period-adjustment system. The best combination of bat and glove among eligible shortstops, but in an easier era. If he could have stayed in the lineup more, we’d have elected him long ago, as he was a slightly better ballplayer than Sewell with a longer career. But having few seasons of 145+ games hurts him.
10. Rabbit Maranville (5) Total = 256.67. An all-time great defensive shortstop who hit enough in his prime to play at a consistent, all-star level. Current leader among eligible players in career WARP1 even without war credit for 1918 (which he also merits), he is the only long-career shortstop between Wagner and Appling. Using WAR moderates how well he does in my system, but applying my system to WAR still shows him as quite worthy.
11. Leroy Matlock. (68) Est. Total = 237.9. I’m not ranking quite as highly as his numbers indicate I should (I’m putting pitchers 5-10 above their listed totals, generally, to equalize them with position players) because players for whom I have numbers in only one system (in this case, MLE win shares) seem to place a little high. I am with Eric Chalek in my support for Matlock, however.
12. Bret Saberhagen. (n/e). Total = 229.43. The best starting pitcher during the second half of the 1980s not named Clemens. A hair better overall, I think, than Stieb, whom we have already elected. Saberhagen’s case is weakened by his fragility, which kept his career innings low and kept him from putting any of his best seasons back to back. On the plus side, however, he has several truly great years, and he was almost always a highly effective pitcher by rate. BP has him at a 3.57 DERA in 2451 adjusted innings. Koufax is at 3.49 in 2239. Ed Walsh is at 3.58 in 2989. Lefty Gomez, by contrast, is at 3.98 in 2533. Ron Guidry is at 3.83 in 2274. Gomez and Guidry are not serious candidates, but Saberhagen should be. Stieb was elected with a 3.89 DERA in 2754 adj. innings, though he, like Koufax has a strong consecutive peak. Concerns about lots of near contemparies being better are not unjustified, but I’ve done enough preliminary analysis to be comfortable making the case that Saberhagen at least belongs in the high backlog.
13. Bus Clarkson (12). Total = 239.97. Lots of discussion of his new MLEs has ended with his value looking about like it did before the revision, in my view. His career profile reminds me a lot of Darrell Evans, with a little more defense a little less offensive peak (though with regression it’s hard to judge peak). Both he and Evans were very good hitters all through their 30s because they really developed their “old player skills” of plate discipline and power in ways that offset their decline in other areas. It’s also the case, of course, that he’s similar to Perez, another power hitter who shifted from 3B to 1B in the course of his career. Perez shifted over at 30, though, while Evans made the shift at around 35, and Clarkson would have shifted over at 35-37. His fielding, then, gives him a significant edge over Perez.
14. Bob Johnson (12). Total = 242.16. As good as Medwick, better than Averill among his contemporaries. With Dan R’s WAR included in my system, it becomes clearer that Johnson belongs in the HoM.
15. Bobby Bonds (13) Total = 241.03. Similar to Jimmy Wynn, but not as strong a peak.
   119. Chris Cobb Posted: October 22, 2007 at 07:22 PM (#2589185)
2006 Off-Ballot. My pHoM in/out line is right around here at the moment. (I still don’t have a firmly worked out pHoM, but I’m getting closer.)

16. Tommy Leach (18). Total = 237.65. Fine player for a long time. Andrew Siegel’s brief analysis of his case is excellent, and Dan R’s war2 shows that his play in relatively high SD leagues was still very valuable, as does Joe Dimino’s PA analysis using Dan’s numbers. He slips a little bit with WAR added into the system, though. Looking at the numbers across decades, I’ve decided that I have to drop him off my ballot into my high backlog. I still think he’s a solid candidate, though, and I hope he will eventually win election. I like him a lot better than many players we are on the verge of electing.
17. Jimmy Ryan (20). Est. Total = 244.8. The best of the remaining 1890s outfielders. Career shape is a lot like Andre Dawson’s, actually. I’ve moved him up this year, and the numbers would have him on my ballot, but I don’t fully trust them yet. My review of the nineteenth century has started with pre-1893 pitchers. 1890s outfielders will be next.
18. Gavvy Cravath (21). Total = 237.57. Not as well-rounded as Oms, Smith, Dawson, or Bonds. But still a tremendous hitter whose value has been overlooked. Discussion of his case over the years has made me fairly certain that he does not have a hidden peak in his AA years as gadfly argued some time ago, but was a pretty similar player then to what he was in Philadelphia.
19. Norm Cash (22). Total = 237.23 A dark-horse candidate, but the best remaining position player from the 1960s.
20. Bret Butler (19). Total = 236.16. I discovered a small accounting error in my spreadsheets for Butler, so that drops him to a more intuitively suitable ranking, and I no longer have to go against my own numbers in keeping him off my ballot. Still, he’s very close to HoM quality.
21. Jim McCormick (17). Est. Total = 225.50. I had written him off, but a careful review of the numbers demands his placement in the high backlog. I now see him as belonging in the group of 1880s pitchers with Galvin, Keefe, and Clarkson. He was the #1 pitcher in baseball from 1879-82. After that, he was sometimes an elite pitcher and never a bad one. He slips just a little bit this year as I continue to fine-tune my analysis of 1880s pitchers. He could rise onto my ballot, along with Grimes just below, if I find that I am underrating pitchers a little bit.
22. Burleigh Grimes (23). Total = 224.18. Had a strong 14 year prime, in which he was a huge workhorse, but his value before and after his prime was minimal. He drops this year mostly because I have finished revamping my system for the twentieth century, so his relative position is clearer (and lower) than it was. Just below the current in/out line in my system, but he wouldn’t be a bad choice.
23. Ron Cey (24). Total = 235.52. System revamp moves him up a little. A smidge better than Ken Boyer, but his ballot-timing was worse.
24. Johnny Pesky (25). Total = 234.87. WAR highlights the strength of his peak. The best unelected major-leaguer of the 1940s.
25. Phil Rizzuto (26). Total = 233.58. Like several other shortstops, he leaps up in my rankings when WAR is included.
26. Lee Smith (28). Total = 222.7. I have Smith as the #4 relief pitcher among eligibles through 2003, trailing only HoMers Wilhelm, Gossage, and Fingers. Eckersley ranks ahead of him as a hybrid, and we can begin by this time to speculate about Rivera and Hoffman, who, if they sustain their current excellence, will pass Smith and merit induction. John Franco might pass Smith also, but I haven’t run numbers on him.
27. George Van Haltren (29). Est. Total = 231.32. A step behind Jimmy Ryan. A strong leadoff hitter. His defense in centerfield looks to have been a bit weak.
28. Tony Mullane (27). Est. total = 220.94. The second-best remaining 1880s candidate. A huge star in the AA, he was an effective two-way player, also. This placement does not include hold-out credit. He’s back in the rankings not because of Dan R’s work, but because reviewing Pete Browning’s case led me to look at the 1880s again, and I realized I had lost track of Mullane and a few other players from that decade. His rise hasn’t been as spectacular as McCormick’s, however.
29. Davy Force (30). Est. Total = 231.09. Great NA peak, and a long period of defensive excellence when that meant a great deal. Back on my radar from the 19th century review.
30. Ken Singleton (31). Total = 230.61. Remains ahead of Staub and Perez among 1970s bats. His fine performance in my study of high-peak hitters didn’t hurt him in my estimation.
31. Frank Tanana (32). Total = 226.42. Nice but not world-beating peak, and most of his career was truly undistinguished. I think my system overrates him a little, so I have him a bit below where his numbers indicate he should be.
32. Herman Long (33). % = 1.0192. His case is of the same sort as Maranville’s, but he was not as brilliant a fielder and had a shorter career, so when Maranville drops to where Long was, Long drops to the all-time in-out line or thereabouts. Dan R’s numbers on Long are not encouraging, so he slips a bit his year. May move considerably up or down when I review the 1890s more thoroughly.
33. Dick Redding (34). % = 1.00. Needs new MLEs, which I will do, someday. None of the additional, reliable data provided by Gary A. shows Redding to be pitching at a level that looks worthy of the HoM. None of the years reputed to be his best are part of this additional documentation, but the more data that shows him looking like a pitcher who was a bit above average in the NeL and, therefore, about average in the ML, the more his case is weakened, in my view. I’m not dropping him out of the picture altogether, but I’m putting him, for the moment at the bottom of the borderline-in group of players. It seems probable to me now that, unless the trend in evidence turns, he will drop further. It’s very hard for me right now, for instance, to accept that he was probably better than Urban Shocker and Don Newcombe.
34. Rusty Staub (35). Total = 229.38. Adding WAR brings Staub to a spot in my rankings that seems more intuitively correct, countering the inflation of his value by the low replacement levels of WS and WARP. His profile is a lot like Jimmy Ryan’s, but I think Ryan’s is more meritorious because it was harder to put up a long career in the 1890s than in the 1970s.
35. Bruce Sutter (36). Total = 219.63. A lit bit behind Lee Smith.
36. Ron Guidry (37). Total = 218.85. Great peak. I don’t know why the peak pitching voters aren’t giving him any support. I’d take him, on peak, over either Bucky Walters or Lefty Gomez. I’m inclined to move him up, but more study is needed.
37. Bill Monroe (38). % = .9922
38. Carlos Moran (39). This is a very preliminary placement, pending the completion of my study of him and a further look at Bill Monroe, whose case has also been reopened by new statistical analysis. Moran is in the neighborhood of Tommy Leach, Monroe, and Johnny Evers. I have Leach somewhat ahead (and on ballot) due to better career value, so Moran’s initial placement is halfway between Monroe and Evers. I hope to have him more definitely placed before we catch up to the present
39. Jim Kaat (40). Total = 220.85. Addition of WAR to the 1960s position players around him affects Kaat’s relative standing almost not at all.
40. Wilbur Wood (41). Total = 220.6. Should have been ranked years ago, but I had overlooked him in my lists. Highly effective as a reliever and as a starter, just not quite for long enough. A bit surprised no peak voters are supporting him.
41. Rick Reuschel (42). Total = 220.18. I still don’t see what Joe sees, but when I integrate his Pennants Added into my system, Reuschel will surely rise. The only question is how far.
42. Toby Harrah (43). Total = 228.38. WAR foregrounds the value of Harrah’s hitting at shortstop during the 1970s, when few shortstops could hit at all.
43. Bucky Walters (44). Total = 217.92. Recalibration brings him into my rankings, but he’s still about 15 pitchers down in my rankings. Nice peak, but really, he was no better than average outside those four great years. Jim McCormick has a nice peak, too, and he was better outside that peak. So too was Ron Guidry. There are a number of better pitching choices out there.
44. Kiki Cuyler (45). Total = 227.59. I should have had him in my rankings long ago; the system revision prompts me to make the move.
45. Dom Dimaggio (46). Total = 227.5 Has dropped a bit relative to the 1940s infielders. Still a fine player.
   120. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: October 22, 2007 at 07:22 PM (#2589188)
On a (sort of) lighter note, I was checking some people's records in the baseball-reference Bullpen, and apparently someone denoted everyone who's been inducted into the Indiana Baseball Hall of Fame. But one of the guys I was checking was Ben Taylor, who has actually NOT been inducted there, although he certainly should have been. I'll have to write up an e-mail tomorrow.
   121. Chris Cobb Posted: October 22, 2007 at 07:23 PM (#2589189)
46. Mark Langston. Total = 216.78. A consistently strong pitcher, durable and effective. Won more than his stats would indicate he should have, given his run support, defensive, support, and pitching quality. Luck or savvy? Or good relief support?
47. Chet Lemon (47). Total = 226.67. If we are going to take seriously the rise in the importance of centerfield defense after 1970, candidates like Lemon ought to benefit.
48. Orel Hershiser (n/e). Total = 216.5. A couple of great years and then a long stretch as a somewhat above-average pitcher lands him here. Does better by win-based analysis than component-stat analysis, as does Langston above. Langston edges Hershiser because, even though he lacks the great years, he was considerably above average for much longer than Hershiser was.
49. Tony Perez (48). Total 226.35. The WAR perspective drops Perez considerably. His peak isn’t special, and his later career has very little value.
50. Don Newcombe (49). % = .9886. He has probably slipped too far down. When I apply Dan R’s numbers to the 1950s, that will lead to a more accurate ranking for Newcombe. My view of him as a bit below the in-out line includes MiL credit and war credit.
51. Urban Shocker (50). Total = 215.43. Need to work out WW1 credit for him, though I don’t see that it will get him over the all-time in/out line.
52. Vern Stephens (51). Total = 225.14
53. Dick Bartell (52). Total = 223.54
54. Albert Belle (n/e). Total = 222.74. Three monster years are not quite enough to bring him into the Hall of Merit. If he had been that great for five years running, he would have made it, despite his career being cut short by injury.
55. 55. Jose Cruz (54). Total = 222.37.
56. Gene Tenace (55). Total = 221.37. WAR shows him in a good light, making him the #1 catcher in my rankings at present.
57. Kirby Puckett (56). Total = 221.37.
58. Joe Tinker (57). Total = 221.18. Slips with WAR evaluation, which raises replacement level for the shortstops of the aughts. But he doesn’t slip as much as Johnny Evers, who has dropped out of the rankings list.
59. Bert Campaneris (58). Total = 220.9.
60. Tommy Bond (59). Est. Total = 210.24. He was the top pitcher of the late 1870s, but that was almost by default. Jim Devlin was a lot better but had the gambling issues, and the 6-team NL was missing a lot of the best players. If we were electing 300 players through 2007, instead of 231, he could be elected, but we’re not.
61. Dale Murphy (60). Total = 220.31. WAR brings out how little value Murphy added outside his peak. He was a great player for five years out of six, but the rest of his career wasn’t worth much.
62. Bob Elliott (61). Total = 219.49.
63. Fred Lynn (62). Total = 219.38. Like Butler and Lemon, WAR raises him in my view.
64. Lave Cross (63). % = .9709
65. George Burns (64). Total = 217.75
66. Hugh Duffy (65) % = .9686
67. Ben Taylor (66) % = .9667
68. Fred Dunlap (67) Est. Total = 217.2 Sole position player from the 1880s in my top 70.
69. Charlie Hough (68). Total = 207.2. Reweighting of pitchers brings him into my rankings.
70. Jim Whitney (n/r). Total = 207.07. My review of 19th-century players brings him in to the rankings. FWIW, I like him better than Caruthers, though I haven’t reviewed my analysis of Caruthers yet. Their careers were the inverses of one another. Whitney consistently pitched for bad teams with often terrible defenses, while Caruthers consistently pitched for excellent teams with often brilliant defenses. All of Whitney’s talent only served to keep him from having a terrible record, where Caruthers similar talent served to give him one of the best winning percentages of all time.
71. George Foster (69). Total = 216.65. A better peak than Dave Parker.
72. Buzz Arlett (70). % = .9602
73. Jack Clark (71). Total = 214.98
74. Mickey Welch (72). Est Total = 204.35. 300 wins brings him back onto the radar. I’m not convinced we yet have a good measurement of pitching value for the 1880s. McCormick, Mullane, and Welch all might be worthy, but then again, they might not. Welch needs a win-based assessment to get into the discussion, because his component stats don’t look like much. But the wins aren’t just a product of run support or fielding support. Maybe someday we’ll truly understand the 1880s game . . .
75. Tony Lazzeri (73). Total = 213.33.
76. Jim Rice (74). Total = 213.05
77. Cy Seymour (75). Total = 212.11

Returning top 10 not on my ballot:

Three of the returning top 10 are on my ballot: Oms, Johnson, and Smith. I agree with the electorate that these are the most deserving outfielders. However, for the rest of my ballot I support glove-men over the hitters that fill up most of the top 10, and I support different pitchers. In general, I think the electorate is undervaluing long-career, high-defense infielders who lack the gaudy win share seasonal totals that win the admiration of peak voters. But win shares seriously undervalues these players because (1) its batting replacement level is WAY too low, so players get too much “showing up credit,” which is easier for outfielders to accrue than infielders and (2) its range of fielding values is too compressed, so that excellent fielding is undervalued. This infielder group is most disadvantaged by this mistake, so my ballot is filling up with players of this type, as I wait for a seismic shift in the electorate. More detailed comments on the returning top 10 left off my ballot follow.

Bucky Walters. See #43 above.

Dick Redding. See #33 above.

Kirby Puckett. See #57 above. Has some decent arguments in his favor.

Gavvy Cravath. See #18 above. I support his election, but he doesn’t quite make my ballot.

Tony Perez. See #49 above.

Hugh Duffy. He looks a lot like Cy Seymour to me, and Cy Seymour isn’t drawing so much HoM support. Ranks 66th at present.

Tommy Leach. See #16 above. Recent reevaluations have dropped him just off my ballot after many years of supporting his candidacy. I still favor his election, but he just misses my ballot at present.

The #11, #12, and #13 returning candidates (Saberhagen, Tiant, Nettles) are all on my ballot.

Other New Eligibles Meriting Comment:

Dwight Gooden. As good as anybody, ever, for two seasons. Then a very ordinary career.
   122. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 22, 2007 at 07:40 PM (#2589239)
Given the circumstances way beyond their control, I would think we'd be willing to accept ballots without comments from kelly and Jim if need be. (IOW, "Take last year's, put Clark on top and Belle after Cravath" or something like that.)

That would be fine by me, Devin. But I can't give out any extensions any more. If we had a ballot committee or something in our Constitution to cover this, that would be different, of course.
   123. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: October 22, 2007 at 08:02 PM (#2589283)
I understand, John. I just felt it should be said.
   124. Willie Mays Hayes Posted: October 22, 2007 at 08:02 PM (#2589284)
Extensions are one thing, John - but what of a commentless ballot?

Realize the point of not having a ballot committee to make these calls - and understandably there is apprehension.

Best wishes to Kelly and Jim regardless.
   125. Al Peterson Posted: October 22, 2007 at 08:23 PM (#2589311)
2006 ballot. Scraping the bottom of the HOM barrel, trying to get those last few backloggers in. Some interesting new candidates were sorted through and here’s my order. Methodology in brief: The system used for my ranking entails a little bit of everything including WS, WARP, OPS+/ERA+, positional adjustments, even some contemporary opinion. Once that is assembled I try and make other changes to metrics when deemed fit. My hope by adding in all this material is to get the most complete picture, a composite worthy player. The results of this work tend to favor prime/peak players over career types but that is not 100% tried and true.

1. Dick Redding (2). Career was long – decent peak along the way. Outstanding fastball in his day according to James/Neyer book. So he didn’t get into the Hall of Fame; maybe the information collected by HOF committee wasn’t pertinent to Redding’s prime years. He deserves some WWI credit, thus patching up a bald spot in his prime years as 1918 and 1919 were affected. The last NeL pitcher I’d deem as worthy of induction.

2. Will Clark (-). I’m a little leery of this position since his cohort of 1Bmen is pretty strong for the next 20 years. But his performance shouts that he belongs, so in you go.

3. Tommy Leach (3). Combination hot corner/centerfielder could field a little, hit a little. Second all-time in inside-the-park home runs to Wahoo Sam Crawford. Someone else stated he was uniquely valuable in his particular era and I agree he meant more in the particular era he performed in. Useless trivia: Still holds World Series record with 4 triples in a single series.

4. Norm Cash (4). Interesting debate with the Perez/Cepeda/Cash comparison. There appears to be fielding value on his end than the others at 1B.

5. Bobby Bonds (5). Even with the constant trades, drinking problem and whatnot his combination of speed/power made him a very valuable player. He wasn’t the next Mays, or as good as his son. Five tools on display.

6. Reggie Smith (6). The other Reggie wasn’t half bad. Played some CF before moving down the defensive spectrum, hitting along the way. Not real durable but lots of value when in the lineup. I don’t currently give him Japanese credit, it’s a tough call.

7. Bob Johnson (8). His peak might not be as high as others but at the same time for 13 years in the majors he has the highest floor of anyone. By floor I mean what can we reasonably expect from him in terms of performance. During those 13 years you knew exactly what you got with Bob Johnson – nothing less, rarely more. I guess my system rewards consistency as well as greatness. WARP numbers like him, WS not so much. Over his career his teams underperformed Pythag W-L by 15 games so he loses some Win Shares there.

I’m afraid he’s between the two voting factions. He doesn’t have the peak but was effective longer that the high peak, short career players. He doesn’t have the career but was at a higher production level than the low peak, long career players. Either way, he stacks up nicely compared to the other LFs hanging around.

Indian Bob got a late start (one deserving of 1-2 years of MiL credit), played on bad teams in ballparks that favored pitchers, and got left out of post-war ML baseball while he was still doing well at age 39. 10 years of top 10 performances in OPS+, 106.6 WARP1 for 13 years with no padding on the front or back end.

I guess they were right. While others shot to stardom, collected an MVP, and faded from sight, along rolled Bob Johnson, punching the time clock with excellence far from the spotlight. Forgotten while playing, lost in history. Somewhere Joe Medwick laughs at the fact he got in while his contemporary remains in limbo.

8. Tony Mullane (7). Old time pitcher who threw plenty well, a good hitter to boot. Had some playing time issues since he missed seasons due to being blacklisted. He’s amongst the best of his era when accounting for the time outside of baseball due to conflicts with different leagues. Goes on the all-Nickname team as well.

9. Alejandro Oms (10). The body of work included Negro and Latin American play. Another career lost in translation since the Cuban time can be tricky to compute. Close to Indian Bob, can take away a little offense since his time was more in centerfield.

10. Mickey Welch (11). Another one of those annoying 300 game winners. Was it due to luck, run support, bad opponents? Still a feat to accomplish, sometimes I need to remind myself that and not totally overlook Smilin’ Mickey. Seemed to pitch well against the other front line starters of his day.

11. Bucky Walters (12). Short time NL prime starter who has the numbers downgraded a little by the defensive support which was above normal standards. Still high quality and heck this is the backlog.

12. Carl Mays (13). One too many inside pitches cost him any chance of people having good memories of his career. Pitched, hit OK, probably benefited from some good defenses as well. Five time 20 game winner.

13. Lance Parrish (14). This is a nod to a position where I think career value can come in handy. Except for the no-brainer catchers how low on an all-time list do we take it? Was a ballot supporter of Bresnahan so I’m partial to catchers.

14. Bus Clarkson (15). Wow, to pick between him and Rizzuto was a tough one. Both were SS, have to take some extraneous factors into account. I guess I tipped a little more toward the one who looked to create more offensively.

15. Phil Rizzuto (18). Looks like I just needed to wait a year to get the Scooter on the ballot after Clarkson. This placing takes into account more credit due to the war years and the fine MiL year before showing up in New York.

16-20: Tiant, Saberhagen, Poles, Lundy, Shocker
21-25: Duffy, Byrd, T John, Ryan, Willis
26-30: Newcombe, Bancroft, McGraw, Easter, Lee Smith
31-35: Perez, Ben Taylor, Luque, Bell, Munson
36-40: J Clark, Nettles, Elliott, Cicotte, Cey
41-45: Brock, Doyle, Tenace, Puckett, Cedeno
46-50: Bridges, Grimes, Schang, Dunlap, Reuschel

Top 10 Returnees: Perez (#31), Puckett (#44), Duffy (#21), Cravath (not top 50). Tony Perez, his career is long enough but some time was spent just piling up average numbers. The questions about his 3rd base defensive value damper any excitement over his candidacy. Puckett, I’m a bit perplexed. Short career, OK bat for centerfielder. Remember by the end he was a rightfielder. The glovework I wasn’t so impressed with even with him stealing HRs over the Hefty Bag in the Metrodome. Duffy’s great 1894 sticks out but the rest of the body doesn’t quite push him high enough. Win Shares definitely like him. Cravath, I’m seeing value but he’s behind Singleton and Howard in the hit/can’t field grouping and they aren’t in my top 50.

New guys:
Albert Belle is down the grouping a bit, in the 50-100 block. I’m not going to get excited about a modern ballplayer who has essentially 10 years played as an outstanding hitter but indifferent fielder. He was very durable those 10 years when not getting suspended. Belle is right next to Frank Howard and its hard to imagine two more different people on the personality side of things. Hershiser is somewhere 50-60, not bad for the workload he was delivered early in his career. Gooden, yep that one year was magic.

Oh, and Dick Lundy has been reprocessed. Moved from approximately 60th to his current spot of 19th.
   126. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 22, 2007 at 08:31 PM (#2589322)
Extensions are one thing, John - but what of a commentless ballot?

I would have no problem finding their comments from previous ballots and then adding them to their new ballots.

Unless they have a ton of new candidates to add on their new ballots, a one-line comment for Clark or whoever would suffice.

I know it sounds petty. Hell, I don't even like the comments rule myself. But I think everyone here understands where I'm coming from.
   127. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: October 22, 2007 at 08:32 PM (#2589323)
Big changes on the Rosenheck ballot this "year." The post-1893 MLB position player evaluation is almost entirely the same, based on my WARP system, whose methodology is elaborated with great detail in the thread devoted to it. The biggest discrepancies this causes with the group involve position scarcity (I think we grossly underrate shortstops) and era preference (I like guys from difficult-to-dominate years like the 1970s and 80s). I have recently been convinced that there is some value to in-season durability above and beyond total playing time, and my voting has adjusted slightly accordingly. I dock pre-integration players of both races for not competing against their counterparts of the other race (Babe Ruth would have had a lower OPS+ if he had played in the same league as Oscar Charleston, but Charleston would have had a lower MLE as well if the major league difficulty level were higher than it actually was due to integration). In spite of that, the new MLE's for Dick Lundy, which I have been asking for for months, show him as the black Bobby Wallace, which is enough to beat McGraw for the #1 spot on my ballot.

I finally have some preliminary numbers for pitchers, based on BP's DERA which I find to be an exceedingly useful and reliable stat, and my regression of the standard deviation of DERA for pitchers. I am still having a terrible time with innings translation. I think Joe Dimino's pitcher numbers are extremely good and should get more traction in the group than they have, but I think they suffer from a few serious flaws, above all the fact that he adjusts for seasonal IP norms but not for career length. This leads pre-1920 pitchers to get absolutely creamed, because their innings get reduced to a liveball workload but they are not given credit for the extra seasons liveball pitchers accumulate. Joe's numbers show John Clarkson with less career value than such leading lights as Dutch Leonard, Bob Shawkey, and Dennis Martinez. As Bill James would say, and I'm a lug nut.

What I find is that there were two decades nearly devoid of Meritorious pitchers: the 1940s and the 1980s. Were these simple star droughts, or were there actual contextual factors making it harder for pitchers to string together big seasons? I don't yet have a conclusive answer to that question, but my gut sense, which I am going on for now, is that the 1940s was a star drought and the 1980s were actually hard for pitchers to dominate. Many of the same factors that gave the 1980s a low standard deviation for hitters also apply to pitchers; that shows up in the RA+ stdevs, might it also show up in their innings totals? I'm not sure, but it seems plausible. The presence of three 1980s pitchers on my ballot--including one that is sure to draw some gasps from the crowd--and the absence of Walters reflects this tentative assumption.

Without further ado:

1. Dick Lundy
Finally, we have the numbers to match the rep. The man who moved Pop Lloyd off shortstop probably wasn't as good as his canonized position in the Negro League pantheon would suggest, but as a sterling-gloved, long-career, above-average hitter, he looks like a dead ringer for Bobby Wallace. That's enough to outdistance the field here.

2. John McGraw
Sometimes it really is just as simple as a .500 OBP. Yes, it's a short career, and yes, he couldn't stay on the field. But he was an inner-circle Hall of Famer when he did play, with a skill set (super-high OBP and defense) that was ideally suited for his environment, in an era when 3B was much more demanding than it later became. WS and WARP probably miss on him more than any other player, due to the inflexibility of their run estimators, their failure to sufficiently adjust for changes in positional difficulty over time, and their absurdly low replacement levels over-rewarding mere "showing up." McGraw was a game-changing player the likes of which baseball has rarely seen since. No backlogger was half the player that McGraw was when he managed to get onto the diamond.

3. Graig Nettles
Big jump up here, mainly because I am now rewarding him for his in-season durability. An all-time great with the glove--his 1971 was plus thirty four runs on defense according to Defensive Regression Analysis--with a low replacement level and a difficult-to-dominate league. He was Brooks Robinson with an extra 6 points of OPS+ in a tougher league.

4. Bret Saberhagen
Put up one MVP-type year (1989) and two more Cy Young-caliber ones (1985 and 87) in an era when that was not easy to do. I don't credit 1994 that much, since it was a strike year with a very high standard deviation, but still, his career DERA is *fifty points lower* than Walters's, despite not benefiting from the war. Another way to look at him is Dizzy Dean, plus a career's worth of above-average filler seasons. I'm sold.

5. Rick Reuschel
Yep, Joe is right about him. Superficially similar to Tiant--both threw 3,500 innings with a 114 ERA+--but Reuschel was hurt by his fielders while Tiant was helped by his, and while Tiant rode the wave of massive pitcher seasons around 1970, Reuschel pitched half of his career when the 300-IP season was a thing of the past. Plus he has that One Big Year (1977) I like to see. I'm starting out cautiously, but he could move higher.

6. Dagoberto Campaneris
The candidate most benefited by the new version of my WARP, as he now gets credit for his absolutely superlative non-SB baserunning for his pre-1972 years. Brock voters should really take a look at him--if you like speed, he seems to me to be clearly the best option. The usual spiel about low SS replacement level and low standard deviations in his era applies.

7. David Concepción
My pet candidate. To rehash: His 1973-82 are virtually identical to the best of Ozzie Smith, Ozzie just bests him on longevity (especially in the field). In an era where a banjo-hitting shortstop was worth his weight in gold, and where a 150 OPS+ was nearly good enough to lead the league, Concepción was a unique commodity and gave the Reds a massive head start over every other team in the league at the game's most critical position. Every player with more WARP2 over 10 straight years is in the Hall of Merit. Remember, you couldn't win a World Series between 1972 and 1976 without a Latin shortstop by the initials of D.C.

8. Phil Rizzuto
With proper war credit--and I've increased it upon finding out that his poor 1946 was due to a malaria infection--he actually comes out #2 or #3 among MLB position players on my ballot in terms of raw MLB value, thanks to his strong prime accompanying the huge MVP year and fistful of rings. But the gap between the actual and regression-projected standard deviation for his peak years makes me much more concerned about the strength of his leagues. An increased sensitivity to quality of competition, along with a desire for more positional balance on my ballot, drops him down a notch.

9. Will Clark
Yes, he deserves to get in. But I'm stunned to see all these #1 votes--he seems to me someone who would have been a perennial backlogger until quite recently.

10. Johnny Pesky
The new Charlie Keller...or, if you prefer, Hughie Jennings. Had absolutely monster years immediately before and after the war, with superlative defense and best-at-position offense, and also played 1941 in the minors at a high major league All-Star level (I don't give him minor league credit for that year, but it does strengthen the case for the quality of his war credit). Then added just enough post-integration to get over the hump.

11. Reggie Smith
Just as his stock rises with the electorate, it sinks with me. I'm starting to dock him for not staying in the lineup, and in particular have reduced the credit I'm giving him for his Japan year. That said, I do like the offense equal to inducted bats like Jimmy Wynn combined with Win Shares-approved defense, half a career in CF, and low-standard deviation era.

12. Don Newcombe
Needs every adjustment in the book--low stdev of RA+ in the 1950s, war credit, minor league credit, league strength credit, and hitting credit. But like Bill James said of Will Clark's 1989, all those little things can add up.

13. Dwight Gooden
Yes, I'm serious. This is basically a test of my faith in my salary estimator--is each marginal in-season win worth more than the last? I thought about it long and hard and believe that it is. Now, adjusted for era norms, I think Gooden's 1985 has a serious case as the greatest pitching season of all time. His ERA+ of 228 stands out like a sore thumb on the decade's leaderboards, where something in the 140s was good enough to finish first in many seasons. He led the league in innings. And he was a damn good hitter to boot. Basically, I think that if you have three seasons like that and nothing else, you're a HoM'er. Furthermore, I give him subjective credit for his rookie year as one of the greatest DIPS seasons ever; he did more by himself to prevent runs than almost any other pitcher in history that year, and just got victimized by the BABIP gods. His next four seasons were hardly sublime like the first two, but they had real value in the low-stdev 1980's--he was seventh in the league in ERA+ in 1986 and 1987. That, 1.5 more decent seasons in 1993 and 1998, and plenty of filler is enough for him to make my PHoM.

14. Dave Bancroft
I used to have him in the SS glut, but he took a hit with incorporation of CS data in my new WARP (15 SB/27 CS in 1915--ouch!) and an upward revision of his replacement level, which drops him to 14th.

15. Fred Dunlap
Just guessing on 1880s guys; Nice OPS+ for a slick-fielding 2B.

Top 10 returnees and newbies:

Kirby Puckett
As I posted in his thread, the guy was about the 5th best CF of his own era. Nothing special in CF; simply accumulated high putout totals due to a low-K, flyball-oriented pitching staff. Would be the worst player in the HoM, bar none, making Nellie Fox look downright Meritorious. Did nothing better than, say, César Cedeño.

Bob Johnson
His wartime demerits exceed his minor league credit, and he played in very easy to dominate leagues. Wouldn't be a terrible selection, but not an elite player of his era (since so many of them were in the Negro Leagues, his MLB stats look deceivingly shiny).

Alejandro Oms
I tepidly support him, but he was so overshadowed by his contemporaries like Torriente. If he were really that great, wouldn't we have heard about him?

Dick Redding
The guy seems like a total question mark to me. Voting for him is just a shot in the dark.

Bucky Walters
An illusion produced by his fielders and the war.

Gavvy Cravath
His MLB + MLE record is deserving, if barely. But the teens NL was very weak. I don't ding him for taking advantage of his park, but I do ask myself what his OPS+ would have been if he had been in the same league as Cobb, Collins, and Speaker, or if he had had to hit against the Big Train and his teammate Pete Alexander--not to mention black players.

Albert Belle
A little less than Kiner, and I wouldn't have voted for Kiner.

Orel Hershiser
Yes, a 1980's pitcher who misses. May have more career value than Dr. K, but can't hold a candle to Gooden's '85 (not that anyone else can).

Fallen angels

Wally Schang
Now that I've actually calculated the appropriate catcher bonus, I was giving him too much credit. The best backlog C candidates are Tenace and Munson.

Burleigh Grimes and Adolfo Luque
Their career innings totals are less impressive given the longevity of many 1920's pitchers.

Luis Tiant
Strength of cohort.
   128. Willie Mays Hayes Posted: October 22, 2007 at 08:33 PM (#2589325)
I would have no problem finding their comments from previous ballots and then adding them to their new ballots.

Unless they have a ton of new candidates to add on their new ballots, a one-line comment for Clark or whoever would suffice.

I know it sounds petty. Hell, I don't even like the comments rule myself. But I think everyone here understands where I'm coming from.

Agreed 100%
   129. Jim Sp Posted: October 22, 2007 at 08:35 PM (#2589330)
1) Saberhagen1985-1994 are enough for me with 1337 K/352BB= 3.8K/W for 1917 IP. Top BP W3: 11.7, 10.2, 10.2, 8.7. Even 1999 is remarkable, 81K and only 11BB in 119 IP. There’s no doubt he was great, 2562 IP is enough bulk for me.
2) Tommy JohnA good pitcher every year from 1965 to 1980 except the year out, with 1979 a very good peak year (8.4 BP W3). I figure by 1980 he was getting to into candidate territory, then went on to win 74 more games. 4710 IP is a lot, at ERA+ of 111.
3) John McGraw--Ultra-dominant player when healthy. Set the quality of league anywhere you want, and McGraw is starting and a star when healthy.
4) Rizzuto--The man lost his age 25, 26, and 27 seasons to the war, right after a very good season in 1942, and 1946 wasn’t a good one for him as well. One of the best fielding shortstops of all time. A 93 career OPS+ is strong for a grade A shortstop, not weak. Great peak season in 1950 (11.4 warp3). PHoM 1977.
5) Reggie Smith--I’m convinced now. Compare to Wynn. Add some Japan credit too.
6) Campaneris--great non-SB baserunning.
7) Concepcion--Grade A+ shortstop and could hit some too. Weak hitting at the beginning and end, but above average during prime 1973-1982. Warp3 prime: 10.7, 10.2, 10.2, 9.7, 8.8, 8.7, 8.3, 8.0. Note that Win Shares is conservative in assigning fielding credit to the great fielders. PHoM 1994.
8) Nettles--Great fielder with quite a bit of pop in his bat. Best Warp3: 10.7, 10.2, 8.9, 8.4, 8.2. PHoM 1995.
9) GoodenFor a period of time, a serious candidate for the greatest pitcher ever. From August 11, 1984, to May 6, 1986: 37-5, 1.40 ERA, 412 Ks and 90 walks in 404.6 innings. 201-142 translated BP career record. 1984-1991 actual record was 132-53, K/W ratio 3:1 while striking out 8/9IP. 62-59 thereafter, like Saberhagen there is no doubt that he was a great pitcher, 2800 IP is enough bulk for me.
10) Will ClarkNeeds a little more career to go to the top of the ballot.
11) Reuschel--Joe D is on to something here, the bad defense behind him is not his fault.
12) Quinn--Joe D makes the case for him also, it’s not an accident that he was able to pitch in the majors to age 49. 114 ERA+ for almost 4000 IP, plus PCL credit, plus leverage credit…
13) NewcombeKorean War and integration issues, decided to give him the benefit of the doubt.
14) Elston HowardIntegration, stuck behind Yogi, was obviously a great player when given a chance.
15) BancroftConvinced now that the BP warp discount is excessive.

Bob Johnson</b>--#16. WinShares says C fielder, warp thinks he’s considerably better than that. Very high assist totals from LF. Played CF for a terrible 1938 A’s team, also a little bit of 2B and 3B. On the whole I think the record indicates that he was actually a good defensive player. I also suspect that his WinShares suffer from playing on some horrible teams. May have struggled trying to get a break, tough to grab playing time on the great A’s teams earlier in his career. Never did anything but mash despite late ML start at age 27. 1934-1942 is a HoM worth prime in my view. PHoM in 1970.
Walters—walked more than he struck out, I’m not convinced that the hitting and fielding provide enough runs to outweigh that to get him in the HoM.
Redding #20.
Puckett—Not close. Would need to channel the 1988 or 1992 Puckett for about 3 more years to make it. If I give him the benefit of the doubt I have to put Ross Youngs in too.
Cravath— #21. Great peak, great high minor league play. PHoM in 1928.
   130. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 22, 2007 at 08:42 PM (#2589339)
One down, one more to go. :-)
   131. Jim Sp Posted: October 22, 2007 at 08:58 PM (#2589375)
I was able to get my ballot in as the fire is going away from my house, apparently Kelly may not be so lucky.

I'd recommend not announcing the results tonight if we don't hear from Kelly.

Then we can see if anyone objects to taking his ballot late. I would highly encourage everyone to not object. If it's unanimous then everyone's happy. If Kelly loses his house, or is spending a couple of days evacuated, I'm sure no one would want to cause Kelly any more aggravation.
   132. . . . . . . Posted: October 22, 2007 at 09:01 PM (#2589377)

Then we can see if anyone objects to taking his ballot late. I would highly encourage everyone to not object. If it's unanimous then everyone's happy. If Kelly loses his house, or is spending a couple of days evacuated, I'm sure no one would want to cause Kelly any more aggravation.

I, for one, vociferously object. The deadline is a rule, not a standard.
   133. DavidFoss Posted: October 22, 2007 at 09:04 PM (#2589386)
Where neighborhood do you live in, Jim? I'm in SW Clairemont which is pretty far from harms way, but the whole town has shut down. My work closed and many of my coworkers have evacuated their homes.

By coincidence, I have a flight to MN tomorrow morning, so I get to escape the smoky air for a week.
   134. . . . . . . Posted: October 22, 2007 at 09:05 PM (#2589390)
To clarify my previous post:

There have been elections where I could not vote due to illness, including one recent election where I was unable to vote due to acute bacterial prostatitis (which is as fun as it sounds). If we had a standard which allowed "legitimate emergencies" to exempt people from the deadline, we'd constantly need to assess the merits of each excuse.

I agree that it sucks that he can't vote due to Act of God, but, dems the breaks.
   135. mulder & scully Posted: October 22, 2007 at 09:07 PM (#2589396)
2006 Ballot: Will Clark is an easy PHOM. My #1, #4 and off ballot were elected.

Here are the factors I consider:
1. 7 year prime
2. 3 years consecutive peak
3. rank within era and position
4. career
5. per season of 648 PA - benefits players like Chance, hurts those who played in high offense eras like the 1890s
I give bonus for being an all-star by win shares or STATS
I include time missed for WWI and II in most cases.
I include time in high minors if a player is blocked because of when he played - independent minors.
I include time for some suspensions: Charley Jones - yes, Joe Jackson - no
I believe in MLEs for skin color.

1. Will Clark (PHOM 2006) - Great player

2. Mickey Welch (PHOM 1901) - I think we missed on him. Of the great pre-60' pitchers, he had some of the worst run and defensive support - compare to Clarkson or Radbourn or Keefe (when he wasn't with NY). Chris J.'s run support index shows that his wins are real. Also, beat opposing HoMers like a drum.

3. Bucky Walters (PHOM 1958) - Great peak. This ranking includes deductions for 1943-45. Best peak available (tied with Dean) among eligible white pitchers. Best NL pitcher in 1939, 1940, and 1944. 2nd in NL by a hair in 1941. Best in Majors in 1939, top 4 in other 3 years.

4. Tommy Leach (PHOM 1966) - Great defense at third and CF - gold glove level at both. A key player in one of the best defensive teams ever. Top 15 if whole career is at 3rd and top 25 in CF if whole career was there. Split the difference and he is about even with Hack and Sutton (w/o NA credit).
Top 10 in league in 1902, 1904, 1907, 1908, 1909, 1913, 1914. Rank in league/majors: 4th/5th, 14th in 1903 but 9 are outfielders, 6th t/16th t, 3rd t/7th t, 4th/9th, 7th/11th, 4th t/12th t, 4th/9th.
Best in league at 3rd: 1902, 1903, 1904. Best in majors: 1902.
Top 3 in league in outfield: 1907, 1913, 1914. 4th by one WS in 1909.

5. Bus Clarkson (PHOM 2000) - ranking is based on the revised MLEs. He could hit. He could field well enough. Career hampered by the integration-era destruction of the NeLs and quotas.

6. Hugh Duffy (PHOM 1919) - Great defender. Great prime and peak. All-star 5 times. twice best in league. Moved to LF because McCarthy couldn't hit anymore and you needed two CF in Boston's park - see SABR's new stadium book. Not at the level of several HOM 90s outfielders but comfortably above the CF standards.
A key member of the best team of the 1890s. Please see the Keltner List for him. Ranks in a group of 5 center fielders between 13th and 17th all-time. Doby, Hill, and Brown are in the HoM, Browning is not. Top 10 in 1890, 1891, 1892, 1893, 1894, and 1897. 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 1st, 1st, and 8th. 11th in 1895.

7. Graig Nettles (PHOM 1996): A great defensive 3rd basemen. Lacks the great years that so many 3rd basemen have in the 60s and 70s: Santo, Bando, Schmidt, Brett, Perez before he moved to 1st. Listed higher than my system says because I believe there is something my system is not catching about him.
Top 15 in league in 1971, 1972 (16th), 1974, 1975 (19th but 1 away from 15th), 1976, 1977, 1978.
Rank in league/majors: 6th t/15th t, 16th t/38th t, 13th t/31st t, 4th/9th, 11th t/20th t, 8th/16th.
Best 3b in league: 2nd in 1971 by 2, 2nd t in 1972 by 2, 1974 3rd by 3, 1975 2nd by 4, 2nd by 5 in 1976, 2nd by 4 in 1977, 2nd by 1 in 1978

8. Vic Willis (PHOM 1942) - Best pitcher in NL two times, second best in NL two times. Almost even with McGinnity. 4 times one of the top 2 pitchers in the National League. Best in NL in 1899 and 1901, 2nd in 1902 and 1906. Top 10 most every other year.

9. Gavy Cravath (PHOM 1979) - All players, All times. All-Star 5 times by STATS and Win Shares. Top ten position player in NL in 1913 - 1917. 1st, 3rd, 1st, 6th, 7th. A top 10 player in either league from 1909-1911 while with Minneapolis. Great peak and prime - 7 times an all-star including 1910 and 1911. Unique career that was a result of his time/place.

10. Don Newcombe (PHOM 1994) - Credit for minor league years and Korea. Yes, the ERA+ were not that high, but the innings pitched were great. I give MiL credit for 1947, 1948, and 4 starts worth in 1949.
Top 5 starter in league in 1949, 1950, 1951, (Korea 1952, 1953), 1955, 1956, 1959
Rank in league/majors: 4th/9th t (1st t/5th t with MiL credit), 4th/8th, 5th/9th, 2nd/2nd, 1st/2nd, 5th/9th. Also, Korean War Credit for 1952 and 1953 at 22 WS and 23 WS gives 2 more top 4 years. For a total of 6 plus two fifths.
   136. mulder & scully Posted: October 22, 2007 at 09:08 PM (#2589398)
11. George Burns (PHOM 1938) - Did everything well. Took a huge number of walks. Hit for good power. Never missed a game. Scored a lot of runs. Top 10 in NL in 1913, 1914, 1915, 1916, 1917, 1918, 1919, 1920. Rank in league/majors: 8th/20, 1st/4th, 7th/13th, 9th/17th, 3rd/5th, 3rd/8th, 2nd/4th, 7th/17th. 1921-23 in NL only: 14th, 18th, 15th.
Top 3 in NL outfield in 1913-15, 1917-19. Top 3 in majors in 1914, 17, 19.

12. Wilbur Cooper (PHOM 1985) - An all-star 8 times. He and Bunning are very similar, but Bunning is slightly better in several ways.
Top 5 in league/majors: 1917, 1918, 1919, 1920, 1921, 1922, 1923, 1924. 4th/NR, 4th/NR, 5th/NR, 3rd/5th, 2nd/6th, 1st/3rd, 5th/NR, 2nd/5th. Plus a 6th in 1916.

13. Alejandro Ohms (PHOM 1964) –Ohms is always at the edge of my ballot. Great consistent prime. One or two big years away from being an every-year ballot member. Stays on ballot after many years off.

14. Frank Chance (PHOM 1985) - Best peak and prime by a first baseman between Connor/ Brouthers and Gehrig. Top 10 in league: 1903, 1904, 1905, 1906, 1907. Rank in league/majors: 3rd/3rd t, 2nd/5th t, 8th t/15th t, 3rd/4th, 6th t/15th t. Best first baseman in league and majors in 1903-1907, league 1908.

15. John McGraw - drinking the cool-aid

16. Burleigh Grimes (PHOM 1961) – I like him better than Faber, Rixey, and Ruffing. Top 5 in league/majors: 1918, 1920, 1921, 1924, 1928, 1929. 2nd/5th t, 2nd/3rd t, 1st/4th t, 3rd t/NR, 2nd t/2nd t, 2nd t/NR.

17. Bret Saberhagen – I didn’t think he had done enough to be elected, but the comparisons to Dave Stieb have made me reconsider. A conservative early placement. Could move up to the ballot next year.

18. Elston Howard (PHOM 1994): I kept overlooking him. I am giving more of a benefit of the doubt about his opporunity issues: Korea, race. Catcher bonus.
Top 10 in league in 1961, 1963, 1964
Rank in league/majors: 6th t/11th t, 3rd t/12th t, 3rd/8th.
Best catcher in league in 1961, 1963, 1964. In majors in 1961, 1963, 1964.

19. Dale Murphy (PHOM 2002): Member of the Wile E. Coyote School of Career Paths (Jimmy Ryan a charter member). CF is a tough position. There are the obvious: Cobb, Speaker, Charleston, Mantle, DiMaggio, Griffey, Snider, Stearnes, Torriente, and Hamilton (in some order) then what? In a knot of players at the edge of CFers. Definitely ahead of Carey and Ashburn though.
All-Star in NL: 1980, 1982, 1983, 1984, 1987. All-Star in majors: 1982, 1983, 1984, 1987
Top 15 in NL/majors: 1980, 1982, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1986, 1987
Rank: 4th/10th, 2nd/3rd, 2nd t/5th t, 2nd t/4th t, 5th/8th t, 15th t/NR, 6th t/9th t.

20. Jack Fournier (PHOM 1997): Noticed that I forgotten about him when he is given appropriate credit for 1917, 1918, and 1919. Remember he did have a 142 OPS+ for his career.
Top 10 in league in 1915, 1918 (minor league credit) 1921, 1923, 1924, 1925. Rank in league/majors: 5th t/7th t, (9th/17th), 5th t/14th t, 5th t/10th t, 3rd/4th, 3rd/6th.
Best first baseman in league: 1915, 1921, 1923, 1924, 1925. Best in majors: 1915, 1923, 1924, 1925.
I believe the MLEs for Fournier are too low because they give him OPS+ of 117, 137, and 122 at ages 27, 28, 29. Those would be his 8th/10th/and 11th highest OPS+ for his career. He may not have set career highs but I think they would have been more line with his career
   137. mulder & scully Posted: October 22, 2007 at 09:09 PM (#2589399)
21. Larry Doyle (PHOM 1987): Great hitter at second. Defense left something to be desired. McGraw usually knew what he was doing. Maybe he did here too? Top 10 in league in 1909, 1910, 1911, 1912, 1913, 1915. Rank in league/majors: 4th t/8th t, 7th/11th, 4th/9th, 3rd/9th, 9th/22nd, 2nd/5th.
Best second baseman in league: 1909 (t), 1910, 1911, 1912, 1915, 1916 (t), 1917. Second best in majors to Collins in 1909, 1911, 1912, 1915. Third best in majors behind Collins and Lajoie in 1910.

22. Frank Howard (PHOM 2001): Career was mismanaged by the Dodgers, but at that point they had more talent than they knew what to do with.
Top 12/15 in league in 1962, 1965, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971. Rank in league/majors: 12th t/18th t, 8th t/22nd t, 6th t/14th t, 2nd/2nd, 4th t/8th t, 6th t/10th t, 15th t/33rd t.
Top 3 outfielder in league: 1968, 1969, 1970. Top 3 in majors: 1968, 1970.
23. Luke Easter: The ultimate what-if player.

24. Herman Long (PHOM 1997): Another key player on the 1890s Bostonians. Fantastic fielder. Need to review his defensive numbers. Top 10 in league in 1891, 1892, 1893 . Rank in league/majors: 2nd/3rd t, 6th, 3rd
Best shortstop in league/majors: 1891, 1893. Best in league: 1889.

25. Dick Redding (PHOM 1975): Not enough shoulder seasons to go with the big 4 years. I pulled the trigger too soon on him. Probably would make the PHOM in the last 5 years.

26. Al Rosen: What if...
Top 10 in league: 1950, 1951, 1952, 1953, 1954
Rank in league/majors: 4th t/7th t, 5th t/14th t, 3rd/5th, 1st/1st, 7th/14th.
Best third baseman in AL in 1950, 1952, 1953, 1954. Best in majors in 1950, 1952, 1953.

27. Ken Singleton: Slugging outfielder for Weaver’s Orioles. Career reputation is hindered by playing in a pitcher’s park in an average/slightly lower than average era for hitting.
Top 15 in league in: 1973, 1975, 1976, 1977, 1978, 1979, 1980,
Rank in league/majors: 9th t/13th t, 1st t/2nd t, 12th t/24th t, 2nd/2nd, 4th t/8th t, 3rd/5th, 7th t/12th t
Top 3 outfielder in league in 1975, 1977, 1978, 1979. In majors in 1975, 1977, 1979.
Could move up.

28. Kirby Puckett: Top 18 in league: 1986, 1987, 1988, 1989, 1990, 1992, 1994, 1995
Rank in league/majors: 7th t/13th t, 4th t/9th t, 2nd/3rd, 7th t/16th t, 14th tied with 6 others/30th t, 3rd/10th t, 5th t/12th t, 16th t/37th t.
Top 3 OF in league in 1987, 1988, 1992. In majors in 1988. Peak and prime are close, but not quite high enough to pull the trigger. I am not totally opposed like I am to Dawson.


Bob Johnson: The 11th or so best hitter (not player, hitter) in the AL in the 1930s. With the NeLer and NLers and pitchers included, he is not a top 30 player for a decade that already has the most HoMers. Everybody hit in the AL in the 1930s. Look how many top 100 OBP/SLG careers are centered in that decade from the AL.

Tony Perez: A couple of very good years as a third baseman then many average first baseman years (ie. performing as an average first baseman). Not in my top 50.

Reggie smith: Nice rate, not enough in season durability
   138. mulder & scully Posted: October 22, 2007 at 09:11 PM (#2589400)
i'm in tierrasanta. the lastest mandatory evacuation order is for north of Miramar Air Station, between I-15 and the 67. Tierrasanta is the next community SOUTH of Miramar. we have key stuff packed and are now getting other stuff.
   139. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: October 22, 2007 at 09:13 PM (#2589403)
Oh, thank you VERY much. Now my top-ranked 3B, SS, 2B and P are all Negro Leaguers, plus Elston Howard is my highest catcher. I’m not surprised that I’m a little more biased towards fielding-centric positions, but it seems that there aren’t any IF/C candidates from the 60s on that appeal to me. Not sure why that might be. Maybe I’m not deflating the MLEs as much as I should.

Still, I guess that supporting the historically overlooked isn’t a bad way to err, if erring it truly is. (That can't be gramatically correct.) Clark, Lundy and Saberhagen make my PHoM this year.

1. Bus Clarkson (2) Parallels Elliot’s career, but with war credit he comes out ahead, and he presumably had more defensive value. The latest MLE’s didn’t boost him that much, but it was enough to move him to the upper reaches of my ballot. (Quick comparison to Sandberg – WS 344 to 346 in 800 fewer PA, OPS+ 123 to 114, 3B/SS to 2B. Even deflating the MLEs a bit, that looks pretty close to me.) Made my PHoM in 1997.

2. Dick Redding (3) Seems to have a pretty good peak, and also has somewhat of a career argument. I still tend to think he’s close enough to Mendez that they both should be in or out. Made my PHoM in 1973.

3. Reggie Smith (6) For now, I think he’s the best of the 70’s OF glut. Win Shares really likes him. Not sure how I feel about those clutch numbers. WARP doesn’t have that great an opinion of his fielding, all things considered. After listening to Dan’s arguments, I have to agree he should be ahead of Johnson. Made my PHoM in 1995.

4. Bill Monroe (5) NOT surprised to see I was his Best Friend. The new Cuban translations boost him a slight bit, as we have more evidence for his quality. A good player at an important defensive position, with a great reputation for his fielding. People like to promote the 1890s as underrepresented, but that doesn't mean the 00s and 10s are overrepresented. Made my PHoM in 1939.

5. Will Clark (new) His totals look very similar to Norm Cash’s, but Cash has the expansion-inflated peak year propping him up. A very strong peak, and was able to contribute almost every season for 15 years. Makes my PHoM this year.

6. Bob Johnson (4) I'm impressed by his consistency, he was an above-average player every year for 13 seasons, plus he got started very late in the bigs, so I will give him at least 1 year of minor league credit. It appears the era considerations have been a little overblown, but as I said, Dan has convinced me that Smith is a little better. Made my PHoM in 1992.

7. George Van Haltren (7) A very good player for a long time, even if he was never truly great. I don't reject all peak arguments, but I'll take his consistency over Duffy's big years. Made my PHoM in 1972.

8. Tommy Leach (9) Dropped from the top of my ballot because I had to admit that Robinson was a better 3B candidate, and I wasn’t all that crazy about his argument either. And now I’m wondering if I had Brooksie too high…but he also looks very similar to Lundy’s new numbers, and I think he’s just ahead of him. Excellent fielder at important positions, OK hitter. One of the most complete players on the ballot. Made my PHoM in 1940.

9. Gavvy Cravath (8) With the basic 07, 09-11 additions, this is where I have him. A better peak than Johnson, but less consistent. WARP isn't as fond of him as WS, but he compares well to Kiner & Keller. Made my PHoM in 1987.

10. Dick Lundy (43) It’s a shame that the new numbers came up at the last minute, so I do hope that I won’t regret this in a couple of “years”. But assuming the data is accurate, I can’t see a reason to put Rizzuto ahead of him, so he has to go at least here. Makes my PHoM this year.

11. Phil Rizzuto (10) He does come out as comparable to Sewell in total value, but it’s very defense-heavy, and even if it’s unfair, I’m less certain about that. Might deserve Minor League credit for 1940 (I’m not counting it at the moment.) Made my PHoM in 1997.

12. Norm Cash (12) A lot of good years, but I really think he's the Beckley of the 60s, with a shorter career (although that's not really much of a criticism), and the fluke year. He really does look pretty similar to Hernandez, and for some reason has 6 Win Shares Gold Gloves to Keith's 1. Made my PHoM in 2003.

13. Luis Tiant (14) I found it really hard to separate him from Saberhagen, so I think they both should be in. He had some outstanding years, and contributed long enough to build up a decent career value. There were a lot of great pitchers in his era, but that happens sometimes. Made my PHoM last year.

14. Elston Howard (12) If you give him fair credit for being stuck in the Negro Leagues and behind Yogi, he looks like the best catcher candidate on the ballot to me. But I wonder if his early 60s-peak just would have happened 5 years earlier under other circumstances. I admit there’s a fair amount of “What-if-ing” here, but it’s the best guess I can make. Made my PHoM in 2004.

15. Alejandro Oms (13) He's been very close for me for quite some time, and the arguments in his favor last year helped give him the extra push over the line. I agree with the similarities to Johnson, which is a good argument for me. Made my PHoM last year.

16. Bret Saberhagen (15) Not quite as good as Stieb, very comparable to Dean as a peak candidate but just a little better. WARP loves him, he has about 1 point less than Morris (in 1300 fewer innigs) and Grimes (1600). Makes my PHoM this year (first time a PHoMer isn’t on my ballot)

(BTW, this would normally be the point at which I’d moan and complain about his getting bounced off the HoF ballot last year. But I went back and looked at our vote, and not only did I not have him on my ballot, I didn’t even mention him as someone worthy of analysis. I will now hang my head in shame.)

17. Bobby Bonds (16) A very strong prime candidate, but neither his peak nor career totals really stand out.
(17A Max Carey)
18. Ben Taylor (17) Another solid candidate who might have been overlooked.
(18A Rube Foster, 18B Andre Dawson)
19. Ron Cey (19) Better than I expected, extremely consistent. Clearly looks ahead of Bando and Nettles to me - better hitter than Nettles, better fielder than Bando, better peak than both of them. He wasn't any worse than Evans, but didn't last as long. Major worry is overcrowding of 3B in this era.
20. Dizzy Dean (20) Is his peak case really that much weaker than Keller and Kiner? I'm wondering. And with Stieb being a peak/prime guy, is he that much better than Dizzy?
21. Tony Perez (21) He does have a good peak, but his late-70s years aren't much above average. And for a mostly 1B guy, even his peak OPS+s aren’t impressive.
(21A Sam Thompson, 21B Charley Jones)
22. Tommy Bridges (30) I've been underrating him.
23. Bob Elliott (23) He’s pretty similar to Cey, and when you discount for wartime play, he’s behind. Not that much better a hitter, and he can’t be considered a better fielder.
24. Vern Stephens (22) Close to Rizzuto, but with the wartime discount and the sudden dropoff after 1950, not quite there.
25. Orlando Cepeda (24) A little ways behind the other 1Bmen. They all have a stronger argument for one angle or another. He did get his career off to a great start, though.
(25A Nellie Fox, 25B Richie Ashburn,)
26. Don Newcombe (25) Basically the only pitcher candidate left from the 50s, and he has an interesting argument – see the discussion in the Belle thread about alcoholism.
(26A Ralph Kiner, 26B Roger Bresnahan)
27. Rusty Staub (26) A career candidate with some peak value, but also picked up WS by just hanging around. Could rank higher. Definitely behind Perez.
28. Graig Nettles (42) I understand the argument from Dan’s system that he’s very similar to Robinson, and I did have him too low, but when I compare him to the 3B in the consideration set, to me he still comes up short.
29. Kirby Puckett (27) Yes, some very good years, but his peak doesn't match Murphy's. I can't have him too far ahead of Dale.
(29A Hughie Jennings, 29B George Sisler, 29C Rollie Fingers)
30. Dale Murphy(35) Excellent peak, but the total package isn’t as good as Puckett’s with the extreme dropoff.

31. Tony Lazzeri
32. Jack Clark
33. Dave Bancroft
34. Bucky Walters (29) Would be higher, but when you consider a wartime discount, his 115 ERA+ really isn’t impressive.
35. Ken Singleton (28)
(35A. Pete Browning)
36. Sal Bando
37. Albert Belle (new) I don’t think he’s quite as good as Kiner, and I haven’t voted for Kiner anyway. I’m just not a fan of the short peak career with nothing else around it – although I did vote for Keller so maybe I’m being inconsistent.
38. Burleigh Grimes
39. Lou Brock
40. Marvin Williams
   140. Jim Sp Posted: October 22, 2007 at 09:16 PM (#2589410)
I'm in Tierrasanta, working from home since I work in Carmel Valley and the office is closed. Everything here is fine, we're south of the Witch fire and north of the Harris fire.

4 years ago some houses down the street burned down in the Cedar fire, but our house was ok.
   141. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: October 22, 2007 at 09:19 PM (#2589423)
we have key stuff packed and are now getting other stuff.

Don't forget to pack your HOM files/flash drive/laptop!!!!

Kidding, of course, Kelly. Good luck and stay safe.
   142. Jim Sp Posted: October 22, 2007 at 09:20 PM (#2589426)
mulder & scully thanks for the tip, we hadn't heard that Scripps Ranch was evacuating, we'll start to pack.

Let's get together after this, sounds like you David and i are all within a few minutes of each other.
   143. OCF Posted: October 22, 2007 at 10:04 PM (#2589522)
I live in Long Beach, and it was only windy for a few hours on Sunday late morning. It was very dusty and hazy, but I never even smelled smoke until after sundown on Sunday - I think that was either the Irvine fire or the fires up in the San Bernardino Mountains. I just looked at the NWS page, at a visible satellite picture: by far the biggest and most visible smoke plume was coming from the middle of San Diego County, from maybe somewhere around Escondido.

In that picture you can also see the fire along the US/Mexico border, the fire in Irvine, and a thin plume coming out of the San Bernardino Mts. (I'm worried about the Arrowbear Music Camp - that is going to burn down one of these days, but it's escaped so far.) It's harder to see what might be going on with the Canyon Country or Piru fires.

The MSM is paying waayyy too much attention to Malibu.
   144. DavidFoss Posted: October 22, 2007 at 10:21 PM (#2589559)
How many people left to vote?
   145. KJOK Posted: October 22, 2007 at 10:39 PM (#2589601)
Added “Rosenheck Method” to using OWP w/playing time, Player Overall Wins Score, and defense (Win Shares/BP/Fielding Runs) for position players, applied to .500 baselines. Using Runs Saved Above Average, Player Overall WInsScore and Support Neutral Fibonacci Wins for Pitchers. For Position Players AND Pitchers, heavily weight comparison vs. contemporaries, and lightly look at WARP1 and Win Shares.

1. JOHN McGRAW, 3B. 20 POW, 207 Win Shares, 78 WARP1, 459 RCAP & .727 OWP in 4,909 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Was CAREER ALL-TIME OBP% leader until Ruth qualifies in 1923, EVEN adjusting for League, and is STILL #3 behind Williams and Ruth. AND he played 3B, where offensive output was generally very low. Plus led his team to 3 consecutive championships. Oh, AND at least 2nd best 3B between 1875-1900!

2. REGGIE SMITH, CF/RF. 32 POW, 325 Win Shares, 99 WARP1, 281 RCAP & .653 OWP in 8,050 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Hit like a 1st baseman, yet could play multiple defensive positions well.

3. BOB JOHNSON, LF. 36 POW, 287 Win Shares, 102 WARP1, 319 RCAP & .651 OWP in 8,047 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Many many very very good seasons.

4. DAVE BANCROFT, SS. 36 POW, 269 Win Shares, 111 WARP1, 157 RCAP & .498 OWP in 8,244 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT. Similar to Bobby Wallace and Ozzie Smith – better hitter than Ozzie, and almost as great fielding - so surprised he’s not getting more votes.

5. WILL CLARK, 1B. 25 POW, 331 Win Shares, 100 WARP1, 294 RCAP & .674 OWP in 8,283 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Right in the Hernandez, Terry, Sisler range at least.

6. TONY MULLANE, P.30 POW, 399 Win Shares, 89 WARP1, 241 RSAA, 240 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 118 ERA+ in 4,531(!) innings. He could hit a little too. Had a very good career AND some really good individual seasons. AA discount keeps him from being a TOP 3 ballot player.

7. CRAIG NETTLES, 3B. 22 POW, 321 Win Shares, 100 WARP1, 96 RCAP & .535 OWP in 10,226 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Glove, Longevity, and Position push him up ballot.

8. BUS CLARKSON, SS/3B. Estimated 123 OPS+ over 8,478 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Hitting far exceeds guys like Marcelle, Dandridge, etc. Tore up the Texas League when he was older and the league was high quality.

9. DICK REDDING, P. 183 MLE Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 114 MLE ERA+ in 3,556 innings. Was the 2nd best Negro League Pitcher in his era, behind only Williams.

10. PHIL RIZZUTO, SS 19 POW, 231 Win Shares, 74 WARP1, 67 RCAP & .494 OWP in 6,710 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT. Defense, War Credit, and Postion moved him up.

11. BERT CAMPANERIS, SS 14 POW, 280 Win Shares, 90 WARP1, 149 RCAP & .470 OWP in 9,625 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Convinced better than Concepcion & Fregosi.

12. DAVE CONCEPCION, SS 18 POW, 269 Win Shares, 100 WARP1, 126 RCAP & .425 OWP in 9,640 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT. Right up with Ozzie defensively.

13. JIM FREGOSI, SS. 26 POW, 261 Win Shares, 76 WARP1, 203 RCAP & .565 OWP in 7,402 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Just needs a little more something – defense, or career length, etc. – but still historically underrated, and perhaps just as good as Dobie Moore and Concepcion.

14. NORM CASH, 1B. 31 POW, 315 Win Shares, 102 WARP1, 295 RCAP & .671 OWP in 7,910 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Obviously underrated player who just needs more in-season PT to make a high ballot slot.

15.BRET SABERHAGEN, P.28 POW, 193 Win Shares, 88 WARP1, 241 RSAA, 167 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 126 ERA+ in 2,563 innings. Three really good years, but too many injury or sub-par years beyond that to go much higher on the ballot.



ALBERT BELLE, LF. 30 POW, 243 Win Shares, 69 WARP1, 310 RCAP & .659 OWP in 6,673 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Career probably ‘takes advantage’ of my ‘system’ better than any player ever. Tough competition for contemporary corner OF spots moves him just off ballot.

OREL HERSHISER, P.19 POW, 210 Win Shares, 84 WARP1, 124 RSAA, 150 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 112 ERA+ in 3,130 innings. Poor man’s Saberhagen – just not enough quality seasons.

DWIGHT GOODEN, P.18 POW, 187 Win Shares, 78 WARP1, 105 RSAA, 128 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 111 ERA+ in 2,801 innings. Poor man’s Hershiser – started off with 2 great years, but not much afterwards.


ALEJANDRO OMS, CF/RF. Estimated 126 OPS+ over 5,152 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Comp is possibly Eric Davis. That won’t cut it in this crowd.

BUCKY WALTERS, P.25 POW, 89 WARP1, 161 RSAA, 166 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 115 ERA+ in 3,104 innings. Hitting helps him, but doesn’t quite stack up to other pitchers

KIRBY PUCKETT, CF. 24 POW, 281 Win Shares, 81 WARP1, 209 RCAP & .602 OWP in 12,358 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Needs a little more value to be any higher.

GAVVY CRAVATH, RF. 18 POW, 202 Win Shares, 59 WARP1, 238 RCAP & .709 OWP in 4,644 PA’s. Def: FAIR. McGraw provided better offense in more MLB PA’s at a tougher position.

TONY PEREZ, 1B/3B. 10 POW, 349 Win Shares, 113 WARP1, 146 RCAP & .582 OWP in 10,861 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. I don’t see the love – had a few years at 3B that were not quite Rosen-esque, then became Beckley-lite. Perhaps most over-rated player ever.

HUGH DUFFY, CF/LF. 5 POW, 95 WARP1, 154 RCAP & .623 OWP in 7,838 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Just not in the elite OF class offensively, and fielding runs doesn’t even like his defense (-31).

TOMMY LEACH, CF/3B. .552 OWP, 121 RCAP, 9,051 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT – 3B, VERY GOOD – CF. Just slightly below Collins defensively, and he played longer. Basically did everything well, but doesn’t have the one outstanding area to get noticed.

LUIS TIANT, P.22 POW, 256 Win Shares, 102 WARP1, 172 RSAA, 185 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 114 ERA+ in 3,486 innings. Tough competition from contemporaries, and mid-career lull, keeps him off ballot.
   146. jimd Posted: October 22, 2007 at 10:55 PM (#2589632)
How many people left to vote?

I count 52 ballots so far; none from Tom D, DonF, or Joe Dimino yet.
   147. DL from MN Posted: October 22, 2007 at 11:00 PM (#2589637)
"I have a flight to MN tomorrow morning"

And I'm in (Northern) California all week...
   148. Arrieta, Gentile Arrieta Posted: October 22, 2007 at 11:21 PM (#2589660)
I’m sick and tired of one-dimensional sluggers like you-know-who. That type move down some, glovemen with enough bat and batsmen with enough glove move up some. Work in progress type ballot.

2006 ballot:

1. Bobby Bonds, rf: 5-tool outfielder. Had the speed and skill to play center, at least early on, but the Giants had some other guy there already. (eligible 1987, PHOM 1996)

2. Carl Mays, sp: Good peak candidate, pretty good hitter. (eligible 1935, PHOM 1986)

3. Lee Smith, rp: Standout reliever for many years. His best seasons are spread out in his career. (He was pretty spread out himself.) Career vote.

4. Bruce Sutter, rp: Terrific ERA+ and incredible WS rate. Established the mold for the modern closer, but wasn’t confined to the 1-inning regimen. Career’s a bit short. (eligible 1994, PHOM 1997)

5. Kirby Puckett, cf: Only 12 seasons, but really nice ones. (eligible 2001, PHOM 2002)

6. Phil Rizzuto, ss: Big jump. I’d like a little more peak, but with credit for the missing years, he’s got the career value. Great defense, infield anchor for a bunch of pennant winners. (eligible 1962)

7. Will Clark, 1b: Better than Cepeda in practically every measure, including defense.

8. Burleigh Grimes, sp: 270 wins, .560 W%, Retro-Cy, 5 STATS AS, 9 all-star quality seasons. Too many bad seasons have ruined his chances. (eligible 1940, PHOM 1942)

9. Lance Parrish, c: I’m a little surprised he comes out so well, but here he is. 9-time first- or second-team all-star, 324 HR, A-rated defender.

10. Dick Lundy, ss: I’m so glad this has happened. He was on my ballot, fairly low, for several years, but then got squeezed off and I sort of forgot about him. Whether he gets elected or not, at least attention is being paid.

11. Orlando Cepeda, 1b: Has the peak/prime edge over Perez and Cash, MVP (whether deserved or not). (eligible 1980, PHOM 1996)

12. Lou Brock, lf: Great player in a narrow sense. OPS+ underrates him. Post-season play elevates him. (eligible 1985, PHOM !997)

13. Lefty Gomez, sp: Low innings total, but a terrific peak, more career than Dean, good black & gray ink, HOFS, HOFM, W-L, ERA. Pitched for a lot of good teams. He had something to do with that. (eligible 1948)

14. Pie Traynor, 3b: 11 quality seasons, 6-time STATS all-star, but he might have been a standout over a weak field. A ballot on-again, off-again. (eligible 1941, PHOM 1987)

15. Bucky Walters, sp: STATS handed him 3 Retro-Cys. I see 7 all-star quality seasons. I’m warming up to him, but his overall W/L & ERA+ aren’t outstanding in context of career length.

Required comments:
Bob Johnson, lf: The career isn’t overly long, the peak isn’t outstanding, but he was one of the top outfielders in his league almost every year. He’s fallen back, there’s nothing exciting there. (eligible 1951)
Alejandro Oms, cf: The translated numbers look pretty good, but it’s not like we’re hurting for outfielders of either race from that era. I wonder if he’s really a better candidate than, say, Monroe, Lundy (we seem to have warmed up to glovemen a bit lately) or Taylor.
Dick Redding, sp: Long career flame-thrower, top 5(?) 10(?) Negro League pitcher. PHOM 1966 but I’ve cooled off since.
Reggie Smith: The only drawback is lack of durability. Excellent in every other respect. He is just off this year, maybe next year.
Gavy Cravath: Needs a busload of faith and extra credit to get by. I don’t have that. Three teams bailed on him after his rookie year. I suspect there were reasons.

Albert Belle: see the intro. WS rate is good, total not so much.
Orel & Doc: too far down in too many categories.
   149. OCF Posted: October 22, 2007 at 11:31 PM (#2589675)
The same satellite image now shows the fires around the LA/Ventura county line (Piru, etc.) more clearly, the plume from the San Bernadino Mts has grown, and there's something new in far north San Diego County, inland from Oceanside (Pala?). But the center of SD County still looks the worst.
   150. JoeD has the Imperial March Stuck in His Head Posted: October 22, 2007 at 11:35 PM (#2589681)
My ballot:

Since some people asked us to include what we consider . . . I try to look at it all. I'm a career voter mostly - not because I have any bias towards it, but just because the numbers (and every study I've ever seen) tell me that peaks are overrated and 5+5 is only about 10-15% less valuable than 10+0.

I give full war credit, and I think it's a major mistake not to when comparing players across eras. My biggest regret on this project is that we didn't require all voters to give war credit like we did with Negro League credit. I see no difference, both were a circumstance of the player's birthday that was beyond his control. I also follow similar philosophy on strikes. I think it's a cop out to say we don't know so it's a zero. If a guy was a 25 WS a year player before and after the war, a zero is a much bigger mistake than giving him three 25s. As far as injury you just credit a guy based on his playing time before and after the war. There's no reason to assume he would have been any more (or less) injury prone during those years.

I'll give minor league credit for players trapped - once they've had a 'here I am, let me play!' season.

Of late I've been much more hands on in rating the pitchers than the position players. I'm very confident in my pitcher rankings. My position player rankings I'm less confident in, but there are only so many hours in the day, and because of that you'll see more position players moving around from week to week than pitchers.

Retooling this week based on more confidence with Dan R's numbers.

1. Rick Reuschel SP (2) - This ranking surprises me a great deal. It's one thing to 'discover' an Ezra Sutton (I mean as a group, not that I discovered him first or anything) who played 130 years ago. But Rick Reuschel was there, right before my very eyes. He pitched in the World Series for my favorite team when I was turning 9 years old. And I never had a clue he was this good.

My Pennants Added system, which account for fielding support, parks, bullpen support, etc.; shows him as the #32 pitcher eligible, right behind Dazzy Vance, Ed Walsh and Amos Rusie, and ahead of Jim Bunning, Sandy Koufax and Juan Marichal.

He isn't peakless either. His top 4 years are similar to that of Ron Guidry or Mike Scott - both considered 'peak' candidates. His 1977 was every bit as valuable as Bunning's 1966. Bunning definitely has him beat in years 2-5, but Reuschel makes it up with more quality in the back end. I get them essentially equal, Reuschel was a little better inning for inning, Bunning had a higher peak, but in the end they even out.

I have Reuschel with a 115 DRA+ over 3745 tIP, Bunning was 113 over 3739 tIP. This is where I would have ranked Bunning, who sailed into the Hall of Merit, I have no issue putting Reuschel here.

Even when I take my numbers, but filter them through a Bill James-type NHBA scoring system (that heavily focuses on peak), Reuschel still comes out as the #51 starter eligible, in a group with guys like Jim Palmer, Noodles Hahn, Eddie Rommel, Tex Hughson, Clark Griffith and Whitey Ford. Hahn, Rommel and Hughson all had very nice peaks.

Using a JAWS scoring system, he comes out as the #38 starter, in a group with Wes Ferrell, Jack Quinn, Palmer, Stan Coveleski, Red Faber and Urban Shocker.

I am saying that Reuschel was every bit as good as the Jims, Palmer and Bunning. The only difference between Palmer and Reuschel is park and defense. Reuschel's 1977 was better than any season Palmer had. Palmer, like Bunning was better than Reuschel in the 2-5 best seasons, but by less than a win a year, and over the course of their careers, Reuschel was better, 115 DRA+ to Palmer's 113 (in a similar number of innings, Palmer had 3781 tIP. He had the one great year, and was very good from 1973-81 and 1985, 1987-89. That's a record that not a lot of pitchers can match.

2. Jack Quinn SP (3) - I'm giving him credit for 1916-18 where he was pitching (quite well) in the PCL after the Federal League went belly-up. He gets a big leverage bonus for his nearly 800 IP of relief work at a LI of 1.26. Without any PCL credit I still have him between Bridges and Grimes.

3. Phil Rizzuto SS (8) - Lost 3 prime years to WWII. I've quantified that better and he moves up further, IMO he's clearly the best position player on the ballot. Great defense, and a huge year in 1950 also. He looks even better than I realized with Dan's system and I'm moving him up accordingly. His death has nothing to do with this, other than that I looked him over again, and I liked what I saw. RIP Scooter.

4. Graig Nettles 3B (5) - Vacuum cleaner at 3B, one HR title, another runner-up. He was a better hitter than Brooksy, almost his equal with the glove. Almost as long of a career, and while he wasn't as good as Robinson, Brooks had plenty of room to spare. I think he belongs.

5. Tommy John SP (4) - Tons of career value. I would probably be sick to my stomach if Jim Kaat (who did very well in the Veteran's Committee balloting this year) got in and John did not. On the surface (career W-L) they appear similar, but when you adjust for everything, they aren't close. I have John as similar to, but better than Burleigh Grimes - about 800 more translated IP, at a 106 rate instead of a 104 rate. That's more than enough to offset Grimes peak edge. I get John somewhere between Eppa Rixey/Red Faber and Grimes on the continuum. He's over the in/out line for me. I also give no extra credit for his poineering the surgery - someone had to be first.

6. Bert Campaneris SS (14) - Moves up this week with my retooling. .470 OWP, in an era where the average SS was at .372. Long (9625 PA) career as well, and a good fielder (62 FRAA). System says to rank him ahead of Concepcion pretty clearly, but I haven't been able to bring myself to do it just yet.

7. Will Clark 1B (n/e) - I like him better than Hernandez, and he's almost as good as Greenberg if you don't give Hank any war credit. I think I'd take him over Saberhagen.

8. Bret Saberhagen SP (6) - Great peak, others with similar years 1-4 are Phil Niekro, Don Drysdale and Joe McGinnity. Saberhagen tracks McGinnity for years 5-7 as well, though he can't keep pace with Niekro and Drysdale after year 4. I'm on record as saying McGinnity was a mistake, but Saberhagen has a lot better filler (128 career DRA+ vs. 115 in a similar number of translated IP), and he's definitely a better choice than McGinnity.

9. Urban Shocker SP (7) - Vaulted in 1981, with 1918 war credit (he was having a great year), and an adjustment for the AL being much better than the NL during his time. He was a great pitcher, peak guys should really look closer at him. He'd be a no brainer without his illness, which should not impact a peak vote.

10. Dave Concepcion SS (13) - Better than I realized, and was really hurt by the 1981 strike, which occurred during his best season (and a season where the Reds had the best record in baseball, but missed the playoffs). Still no Trammell or Ozzie, but a very good player indeed. We could do worse than induct him.

11. Tommy Bridges SP (9) - Unspectacular peak (although he would have won the 1936 AL Cy Young Award if it had been invented), but a lot of career value. War credit helps nudge him above Trout and Leonard. He could obviously still pitch when he left for the war, and was still good when he returned for a short time. I give him 2 years of credit at his 1941-43 level.

12. Tommy Leach 3B/CF (12) - I was a big fan of his awhile back, then he faded. He's back now, in no small part because of Dan R's work.

13. Gavy Cravath RF (11) - Either he was a freak of nature, or there's a lot missing. I vote for the latter. Check out his thread for deeper discussion of the specifics, including a great analysis from Gadfly. He's the kind of guy we were hoping to catch when we started this project.

14. Reggie Smith CF (--) - Creeps onto the ballot this week. While the seasonal durability is low, there's still a lot of value when he was on the field.

15. Ben Taylor 1B (--) - He's back on the ballot after a few weeks at #16. Consider me convinced that he was really was a great hitter. I was underrating him.

Mandatory comments:

Bob Johnson - He's in the mix - but slides down when you deflate his numbers from WWII. I've got him just below Smith without any deflation.

Alejandro Oms - He's back on my radar, but I see him between Dawson and Indian Bob. Dawson was barely hitting my ballot, so Oms is not on it. I like Ben Taylor better.

Bucky Walters - Big years, good hitter for a pitcher, career kind of short though. Basically tied with Newcombe.

Dick Redding - he was good, but I think we are overrating him. I can't see how he's better than Grimes.

Kirby Puckett - Loved to watch him play, but there's just not enough there. DanR's numbers show him similar to Rizzuto - before giving any war credit.

Close to the ballot:

Position Players - Dave Bancroft, Buddy Bell, Toby Harrah, Bob Johnson, Brett Butler, Norm Cash, Thurman Munson, John McGraw, Bobby Bonds.

Pitchers - Don Newcombe, Burleigh Grimes, Bucky Walters, Luis Tiant, Virgil Trucks, Orel Hershiser, Dwight Gooden, Dennis Martinez, Lee Smith.
   151. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 22, 2007 at 11:36 PM (#2589683)
Thanks to Kelly and Jim for submitting your ballots. We all appreciate it, especially considering what's going on where you live.
   152. JoeD has the Imperial March Stuck in His Head Posted: October 22, 2007 at 11:36 PM (#2589684)
test, I know I posted it!
   153. DavidFoss Posted: October 22, 2007 at 11:37 PM (#2589686)
#150, its there Joe...
   154. DavidFoss Posted: October 22, 2007 at 11:40 PM (#2589689)
The same satellite image now shows the fires around the LA/Ventura county line (Piru, etc.) more clearly, the plume from the San Bernadino Mts has grown, and there's something new in far north San Diego County, inland from Oceanside (Pala?). But the center of SD County still looks the worst.

Far north SD County is probably the Fallbrook area. That town is getting evacuated.

The big one in the Central SD area is the Witch Creek fire. Escondido, Rancho Bernardo, San Marcos, Poway. That's all still considered North County. Bad stuff.

The one down by the border is the Harris fire. That one is creeping towards Chula Vista from what I hear.
   155. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: October 22, 2007 at 11:44 PM (#2589692)

Joe Dimino

6. Bert Campaneris SS...System says to rank him ahead of Concepcion pretty clearly, but I haven't been able to bring myself to do it just yet.

10. Dave Concepcion SS

You haven't?
   156. JoeD has the Imperial March Stuck in His Head Posted: October 22, 2007 at 11:45 PM (#2589694)
Whoops, old comments need to be edited better sometimes!
   157. OCF Posted: October 22, 2007 at 11:50 PM (#2589698)
The only 2005 voter still out there is Tom D. 54 votes cast.
   158. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 23, 2007 at 12:00 AM (#2589705)
The election is now over. Results will be posted at 10 PM EDT.
   159. OCF Posted: October 23, 2007 at 12:07 AM (#2589709)
Looks like the Harris fire is burning on both sides of the border, and could threaten Tijauana. And something new just jumped up near Ensenada.
   160. Max Parkinson Posted: October 23, 2007 at 12:09 AM (#2589712)
Just so everyone is clear how close this one was (I would consider this the closest election yet!)....

Here were the "To-Date" standings before the final 10 voters, and how the standings (3rd place onward) moved following each of those 10 votes. Note, as no names need be disclosed, the numbers represent the player's final rank in the (as yet unofficial) vote.

Prior to the Final 10....



No Change

That's a TON of late movement....Carmona-like. Scratch that...pre-October Carmona-like.

Well, good times.
   161. mulder & scully Posted: October 23, 2007 at 12:38 AM (#2589732)
The Fallbrook fire looks to be the worst for structures. NPR San Diego said 500 to 1000 could go up either by the time our election results are announced or 24 hours. I hate it when newspeople change what they say. Anyway, Jim Sp and I look to be safe right now.
   162. JoeD has the Imperial March Stuck in His Head Posted: October 23, 2007 at 01:07 AM (#2589747)
I hope everything works out ok for you M&G;, K in SD and vinay, who also lives out there.
   163. rawagman Posted: October 23, 2007 at 11:24 AM (#2589950)
To harp on MAx Parkinson's point, through 45 ballots Graig Nettles had yet to make an appearance in the top five. And of course, he only hit the top three with Joe Dimino's game ending ballot.
   164. OCF Posted: October 23, 2007 at 04:43 PM (#2590264)
Looking at the visible satellite image again: the biggest smoke plume from San Diego County looks a lot further north than it did yesterday. Is that the Witch Creek fire burning further to the north or is that the Fallbrook fire expanded southward? In any case, it looks bad. And the Harris fire is still going, and the plume from Lake Arrowhead looks very strong this morning. (The fuel in Lake Arrowhead is forest rather than chapparal - big pine trees, dead and dying from drought and beetle infestation.)
   165. mulder & scully Posted: October 23, 2007 at 10:38 PM (#2590831)
Probably the Witch Fire (Creek has been dropped). It is over 230000 acres at last notice. The Harris fire is well over 100,000 acres. The Fallbrook fire is about 4-5000 acres. A new fire has started that is over 3000 acres near Valley Center (I believe), and there are 2 small (<500 acres on Camp Pendleton - Marines). None of the fires are expected to be fully contained until Nov 1 - 4. But, I think Jim Sp, David, and I are safe, currently.
   166. OCF Posted: October 23, 2007 at 11:10 PM (#2590850)
In the satellite shots, nearly everything still seems to be burning strongly - Witch (but especially way to the north, near the SD/Riverside county line), Harris, Lake Arrowhead, Irvine. And a couple of plumes near Ensenada that I haven't heard anything about. The wind seems to have swung around to straight out of the east rather than NE or NNE.

In this picture: , all of the stuff for several hundred miles offshore of Southern california and northern Baja that looks like low clouds - ALL of it - is smoke.
   167. Gerald Bostock Posted: October 27, 2007 at 09:29 AM (#2595597)
I couldn't reply before to the comments on my 2006 ballot on account of being in Spain.

fra paolo, why Cey over Nettles?

Cey appeared to me to have a higher batting peak. I had planned to study Nettles vs Cey in more detail using my estimations of Zone Rating, but events have overtaken that.

<u>Paul Wendt</u>
Does "fra paolo" mean Brother Paul as in the monastery?

It does indeed, although it is a nickname given to me years ago by my friends because of my love of Gregorian chant and early liturgical music rather than any vow.

Nettles was a good batter for his fielding position, relative to Mazeroski. Nettles played longer. Did Mazeroski maintain his fielding peak longer?

Nettles and Mazeroski were being compared on slightly different bases. I haven't assembled all the data for estimating Zone Rating for every season, but was in the process of doing so for Nettles when he got elected. Nettles' initial problem for me was his low peak as a hitter. The knock against Mazeroski has always been that he was a poor hitter, yet for his era he was average at his position, and historically he was an exceptional fielder. His glove easily carries his weaker bat firmly into the contentious borderline of the HoM, but because it's by glove and not by bat, the electorate's prejudice works against him.

Wow. If I understand what this voter is saying, he votes in a way that violates the Independence of irrelevant alternatives axiom.

I'm not sure that this is true. It depends how you look at it. To borrow the anecdote given to illustrate an example:
After finishing dinner, Sidney Morgenbesser decides to order dessert. The waitress tells him he has two choices: apple pie and blueberry pie. Sidney orders the apple pie. After a few minutes the waitress returns and says that they also have cherry pie at which point Morgenbesser says "In that case I'll have the blueberry pie."

I think it would in my case need to be understood as follows:
Ordering a meal in a restaurant, Sidney Morgenbesser is reading the menu and decides to have vegetable soup followed by grilled salmon with fries and peas. The waitress tells him that the specials of the day include seafood platter as a starter. Morgenbesser now says "In that case I'll have the seafood platter, followed by pork loin, mashed potato and green beans."
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