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Hall of Merit
— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best

Sunday, October 21, 2007

2006 Results: The Hall of Merit Welcomes Clark, Oms and Nettles with Open Arms!

In his first year of eligibility, top slugging first baseman Will Clark easily became the top nod this election for HoM immortality. He gained a more than respectable 76% of all possible points.

In his 66th year on the ballot, Negro and Cuban League legend Alejandro Oms finally made it with 25% of all possible points.

Not that far behind Oms was fielding wizard Graig Nettles with an astounding leap forward (also with 25% of all possible points). In his 13th election, he bested Reggie Smith and Bucky Walters by only a handful of votes.

Rounding out the top-ten were: Cannonball Dick Redding, Bob Johnson, Bret Saberhagen (big move up!), John McGraw (a bigger move up!) and Tony Perez.

RK   LY  Player                   PTS  Bal   1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9 10 11 12 13 14 15
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1  n/e  Will Clark               979   51  20  5  3  5  4  3  4  1  1  2        1  1  1
 2    5  Alejandro Oms            328   25      3  2     2  2  3  1  2        3  2  1  4
 3   16  Graig Nettles            325   25      2  2  2  1     4  4        2  1  2  2  3
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 4    6  Reggie Smith             321   23   1  2  3  1  1  2     2  1  1  2  1  2  4   
 5    7  Bucky Walters            317   22   1     4  2  4  1     1  1     2  3     2  1
 6    8  Cannonball Dick Redding  303   17   5  4     1     1     1  1  1  1        1  1
 7    4  Bob Johnson              297   20      1  3  2  2  2  3  1  1  1  1  1  1  1   
 8   14  Bret Saberhagen          293   21   1  2     4  3        3  1  2     1     1  3
 9   22  John McGraw              273   16   1  3  4     1  2        1  1  1        1  1
10   11  Tony Perez               269   18   1  2  3     2        2     2  3  1     2   
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
11    9  Kirby Puckett            267   19   1  3     2  2  1  1     2     1  2  1  1  2
12   10  Gavvy Cravath            262   20   2  1        1  2  2     2  3  3  1  1  1  1
13   17  Phil Rizzuto             261   20      1  2  2  1  3     1  1  2  2        2  3
14   13  Tommy Leach              259   17   1  1  1  3  2  1  2  2  1     1  1     1   
15   12  Hugh Duffy               244   15   1  2  2  1  1  2  1     2  2           1   
16   15  Luis Tiant               221   18   2        1  1  1  1  2     2     1  5  2   
17   19  George Van Haltren       219   13   1  3  1     2  2  1        1     1  1      
18   20  Bus Clarkson             211   14   2     1  1  3  1  1  1        1  1  1  1   
19   18  Ken Singleton            209   17      1  2  1     1  1     1  1  3  1  1  2  2
20   23  Tommy Bridges            177   11      3  1  3           1        1           2
21   26  Dave Concepción          171   13      1  1           3  2     2  1  2  1      
22   24  Mickey Welch             170   11      2  1  1  1  2     1     1        1  1   
23   25  Burleigh Grimes          163   12   1        1  3     1  1     1  1  2  1      
24   21  Dizzy Dean               161   10   1  2  1        1     2     1     1  1      
25  n/e  Albert Belle             158   14            2     2     1  1  2  2     1  1  2
26   28  Vic Willis               155   10   2        1  1  2     1  2              1   
27   29  Dale Murphy              154   13         1  1        1  3     2  1     2  2   
28   31  Elston Howard            153   14         1     2           1     4  3     2  1
29   34  Tommy John               143    9      2  1     1  1  1  1           1  1      
30   95T Dick Lundy               141   11   2                 1     2  3        2     1
31   33  Rusty Staub              136   10         1     1     2  2  2  1     1         
32   36  Bob Elliott              129   11               1     3     4        1  1     1
33   46T Rick Reuschel            129    8   1  1  1     1        1  1     1  1         
34   35  Bobby Bonds              126   10   1        1  1        2     1  1     2     1
35   27  Larry Doyle              124    9         2  2           1        1     2  1   
36   42  Don Newcombe             122   12            1  1  1        1  1     1  2  2  2
37   32  Lou Brock                117    9   1     1              1  1  2     1  1  1   
38   38  Ben Taylor               108    9         1        2  1  1           1  1     2
39   37  Norm Cash                107    9            1  1     1  1  2        1     2   
40   39  Pie Traynor              101   10         1        1              2  1     5   
41   30  Orlando Cepeda            98    8         1        2        1     1     3      
42   41  Wally Schang              97    6   1     1     1        1     2               
43   43  Lee Smith                 91    5      2  1     1                          1   
44   40  Carl Mays                 90    7      1     1        1     1        2        1
45   44  Dave Bancroft             79    7            1  1           1  1  1        1  1
46   48  Bill Monroe               78    5   1        2        1                       1
47   50  Ed Williamson             74    5      1     1        1  1                 1   
48   49  Bert Campaneris           69    5                  3  1           1            
49   46T Chuck Klein               61    4      1     1                 1  1            
50   45  Vern Stephens             58    4            1     1  1     1                  
51   55  Johnny Pesky              57    6                           1  2     1  1     1
52   52  Frank Tanana              57    3   1        1  1                              
53   51  Sal Bando                 55    4                     3  1                     
54   60  Ernie Lombardi            54    4         1           1           1     1      
55T  58  Leroy Matlock             53    4                  1  2           1            
55T  54  Don Mattingly             53    4   1                 1              1        1
57   53  Urban Shocker             52    5                        1  2        1        1
58   61  Wilbur Cooper             52    4         1        1                 1        1
59   57  Thurman Munson            48    4               1           2           1      
60   56  Addie Joss                48    3   1                    1     1               
61   59  Jack Quinn                47    4      1                             2        1
62   64  Lance Parrish             46    4                  1        1  1        1      
63   65T Al Rosen                  42    4                           1  1  1  1         
64   62  George J. Burns           41    4                        1        2     1      
65T  67  Tony Mullane              39    3                  1     1     1               
65T  72  Bruce Sutter              39    3            1           1           1         
67   74T Jimmy Ryan                38    3            1     1                          1
68   74T Ed Cicotte                36    2      1                 1                     
69   82  Sam Rice                  35    4                     1              1        2
70T  71  Fred Dunlap               34    4                                 2     1     1
70T  79  Jim Rice                  34    4                           1        1     1  1
72   65T Frank Chance              33    3                     1     1              1   
73   68T Buddy Bell                32    2            1     1                           
74   68T Rabbit Maranville         31    3                           1  1        1      
75T  70  Lefty Gomez               30    3                  1                    1  1   
75T n/e  Dwight Gooden             30    3                           1     1     1      
77   73  Frank Howard              27    3                              1     1     1   
78   78  Jim Kaat                  26    2                     1     1                  
79   76  Bobby Veach               25    3                                 1  1        1
80   63  Tony Oliva                25    2               1                    1         
81T  81  Luke Easter               22    1         1                                    
81T  86  Bill Mazeroski            22    1         1                                    
83   83  Dave Parker               21    2                              1  1            
84   77  Ron Cey                   20    3                                       1     2
85   92T Hack Wilson               19    2                        1                    1
86   90T Tony Lazzeri              18    2                              1           1   
87   85  Luis Aparicio             17    1            1                                 
88   84  Brian Downing             16    1               1                              
89  n/e  Jim McCormick             15    2                                    1        1
90T  80  Jack Clark                15    1                  1                           
90T  90T Virgil Trucks             15    1                  1                           
92   87T Sam Leever                14    1                     1                        
93T  87T Tommy Bond                12    1                           1                  
93T  87T Carlos Morán              12    1                           1                  
93T  92T Dizzy Trout               12    1                           1                  
96T  92T Fielder Jones             11    1                              1               
96T  95T Jack Morris               11    1                              1               
98T  99T Elmer Smith               10    1                                 1            
98T  99T George Kell               10    1                                 1            
100T n/e  Orel Hershiser             9    1                                    1         
100T 103  Bill Madlock               9    1                                    1         
102T  99T Jim Fregosi                8    1                                       1      
102T 103  Charlie Hough              8    1                                       1      
102T 107  Al Oliver                  8    1                                       1      
102T  97T Mickey Vernon              8    1                                       1      
106  97T Brett Butler               7    1                                          1   
107T 107  Dutch Leonard              6    1                                             1
107T 103  Gene Tenace                6    1                                             1
Dropped Out: Dolf Luque(99T), Dennis Martinez(107), Jim Whitney(103).
Ballots Cast: 54

Thanks to OCF and Ron for helping me with the tally!

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 21, 2007 at 07:47 PM | 73 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 23, 2007 at 02:06 AM (#2589778)
Congrats to Will, Alejandro and Graig!

Good thing that Dan didn't accidentally type Jim Nettles instead of his brother Graig in his analysis or he might be in the HoM today instead. ;-)

HOF-not-HOM through 2006

Meaning
all of the members of the HOF-not-HOM as of 2006not 2007.

1   Aparicio
Luis
2   Bancroft
Dave
3   Bender
Chief
4   Bottomley
Jim
5   Brock
Lou
6   Cepeda
Orlando
7   Chance
Frank
8   Chesbro
Jack
9   Combs
Earle
10 Cooper
Andy
11 Cuyler
Kiki
12 Dandridge
Ray
13 Day
Leon
14 Dean
Dizzy
15 Duffy
Hugh
16 Evers
Johnny
17 Ferrell
Rick
18 Gomez
Lefty
19 Grimes
Burleigh
20 Hafey
Chick
21 Haines
Jesse
22 Hooper
Harry
23 Hoyt
Waite
24 Hunter
Catfish
25 Jackson
Travis
26 Johnson
Judy
27 Joss
Addie
28 Kell
George
29 Kelly
George
30 Klein
Chuck
31 Lazzeri
Tony
32 Lindstrom
Freddie
33 Lombardi
Ernie
34 Manush
Heinie
35 Maranville
Rabbit
36 Marquard
Rube
37 Mazeroski
Bill
38 McCarthy
Tommy
39 McGraw
John 
40 Pennock
Herb
41 Perez
Tony
42 Puckett
Kirby  
43 Rice
Sam
44 Rizzuto
Phil
45 Schalk
Ray
46 Schoendienst
Red
47 Smith
Hilton
48 Sutter
Bruce
49 Taylor
Ben
50 Tinker
Joe
51 Traynor
Pie
52 Waner
Lloyd
53 Welch
Mickey
54 Willis
Vic
55 Wilson
Hack
56 Youngs
Ross

HOM
-not-HOF

Meaning
all of the members of the HOM-not-HOF as of 2006not 2007.

1   Allen
Dick 
2   Barnes
Ross
3   Beckwith
John
4   Bennett
Charlie
5   Blyleven
Bert
6   Boyer
Ken
7   Browning
Pete
8   Caruthers
Bob
9   Childs
Cupid
10 Clark
Will
11  Dahlen
Bill
12  Dawson
Andre
13  Evans
Darrell
14  Evans
Dwight
15  Ferrell
Wes
16  Freehan
Bill
17  Glasscock
Jack
18  Gordon
Joe
19  Gore
George
20  Gossage
Rich
21  Grich
Bobby
22  Groh
Heinie
23  Hack
Stan
24  Hernandez
Keith
25  Hines
Paul
26  Jackson
Joe*
27  JohnsonHome Run
28  Jones
Charley   
29  Keller
Charlie
30  Magee
Sherry
31  McVey
Cal
32  Minoso
Minnie
33  Moore
Dobie
34  Nettles
Graig
35  Oms
Alejandro
36  Pearce
Dickey
37  Pierce
Billy
38  Pike
Lip
39  Randolph
Willie
40  Richardson
Hardy
41  Rose
Pete*
42  SantoRon
43  Sheckard
Jimmy
44  Simmons
Ted
45  Start
Joe
46  Stieb
Dave
47  Stovey
Harry
48  Sutton
Ezra
49  Torre
Joe
50  Trammell
Alan
51  Trouppe
Quincy
52  Whitaker
Lou
53  White
Deacon
54  Wynn
Jimmy

*  not eligible for the HOF 


After the NeL influx into the HOF in 2006, there are now more HOF-not-HoM for the first time.
   2. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: October 23, 2007 at 02:07 AM (#2589779)
Wow, didn't see that one coming. I guess maybe I should have, but I didn't.
   3. Mike Webber Posted: October 23, 2007 at 02:11 AM (#2589784)
Wow, guess I better read that Nettles thread - though I'm afraid it must have some hypnotizing effects embedded into it.
   4. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: October 23, 2007 at 02:11 AM (#2589786)
Well, that's outstanding. Nettles from #16 to in obviously makes my day, plus Smith on the brink, McGraw in the top 10, and my new boy Saberhagen making the top returnees...I wish there were more elections, dammit.
   5. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: October 23, 2007 at 02:12 AM (#2589788)
Now that is what i call an election! A fierce rally by Nettles in the last 24 hours!
   6. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: October 23, 2007 at 02:18 AM (#2589791)
Is Nettles' leap from #16 to election the biggest jump ever?

As much as I am positively thrilled to see John McGraw's name in the top 10, he'll only be #5 on my 2007 ballot.
   7. jimd Posted: October 23, 2007 at 02:21 AM (#2589794)
Graig Nettles, huh? That's a surprise.

He and Oms are the inverse of the Pete Browning situation. Not one voter thought that either of these two electees was the best backlog candidate available. Neither had any strong supporters, taking Willie Randolph one last step further (he at least had one such vote).

Browning was William Jennings Bryan, polarizing.
These guys are Franklin Pierce, dark horses both.
   8. Juan V Posted: October 23, 2007 at 02:22 AM (#2589798)
Assuming this year's big three newbies and Raines make it in, the race for the last two spots before yearly voting will be a thriller.
   9. rawagman Posted: October 23, 2007 at 02:24 AM (#2589801)
I'm very sad to see that Hugh Duffy looks like a true lost cause.
   10. OCF Posted: October 23, 2007 at 02:27 AM (#2589802)
Average consensus score -18.0; third lowest in history after 1997 (-20.4) and 1996 (-19.0). Those were totally backlog elections; this election had one "front-logger" although he was far from unanimous. (There will be three frontloggers in 2007; it will look different.) Highest possible consensus score: -3. Not a lot of consensus to agree with.

Sean Gilman: -11
Trevor P: -11
Howie Menckel: -12
Rusty Priske: -12
TomH: -12
ronw: -12
mulder & scully: -13
Mark Shirk: -13
Al Peterson: -13
Thane Bagarth: -13
andrew siegel: -13
...
rawagaman: -16 (median)
OCF: -17 (median)
...
John Murphy: -18
...
Dan R: -21
Joe Dimino: -21
Daryn: -22
Chris Fluit: -23
EricC: -24
sunnyday2: -24
Juan V: -25
Don F: -26
rico vanian: -29
karlmagnus: -32
Adam Schafer: -32
yest: -33
   11. rawagman Posted: October 23, 2007 at 02:33 AM (#2589812)
Holding down the median, does that make me the eclectic's Mr. Consensus for 2006?
   12. Bleed the Freak Posted: October 23, 2007 at 02:33 AM (#2589813)
David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: October 22, 2007 at 10:18 PM (#2589791)

Is Nettles' leap from #16 to election the biggest jump ever?

That is correct. The second largest was Joe Jackson (ala boycott), moving from 10th to 1st (1926-1927).

Dobie Moore had the next largest (7th to 3rd, 90-91) along with Andre Dawson (7th to 3rd, 04-05).

Any chance the greatest dual meritious fellow is elected in 2008?
   13. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: October 23, 2007 at 02:33 AM (#2589814)
Well SunnyD, you win this round of racing to the Consensus bottom---sorry that's the other EricC you're tied with. However, next year should be interesting in that I'll have just one member of the returning top tenners on my ballot with Oms and Nettles both going away.
   14. Juan V Posted: October 23, 2007 at 02:34 AM (#2589815)
I knew it! I finally made it to the bottom consensus group! I have to thank Will Clark and all of his supporters, and Nettles didn't hurt either :-)
   15. Chris Fluit Posted: October 23, 2007 at 02:34 AM (#2589816)
Several wows! Wow, that anybody could jump to election from outside of the top ten is just amazing. Wow, that was quite an outfielder backlash with Johnson, Cravath, Puckett, Duffy, Leach and Singleton all losing ground- and that's just in the top 20. I kind of saw the anti-Johnson backlash building so I'm not surprised that somebody jumped over him but I figured the somebody to be a pitcher in the top ten like Walters or Redding not an infielder from that far back.
   16. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: October 23, 2007 at 02:37 AM (#2589820)
Rizzuto made a nice little jump, four slots.

Howard jumped 8. Reuschel and Lundy made big jumps. So did Sam Rice.
   17. sunnyday2 Posted: October 23, 2007 at 02:39 AM (#2589825)
I'd be pretty sure there's never been a 16 to 3 rally. My casual tabulation had Reggie at 2, Oms 3 and Nettles at 4, which was surprising enough. But I don't assume my tabulation is correct.

I doubt if we've ever had a player gain 65 places either.

Good news: We dodged Bob Johnson.

Bad news: We elected Oms.

Neutral news: At least Nettles fills a position need, but seriously Ed Williamson was twice the ballplayer.

Bucky Walters put on a nice late inning rally too, then fell back over the last few ballots, at least according my casual tabulation.

Just 2 more backloggers to go??? Wow. I'm OK with Reggie, Walters, Redding and Saberhagen; not so OK with McGraw; and definitely not OK with Johnson or Perez. #11through 15 would all be better. And I would think that Lundy is a bona fide contender now, too.

Of course, I'm 7th from the bottom on consensus scores, where I belong. I should probably say, Vote for Bob Johnson!
   18. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 23, 2007 at 02:41 AM (#2589826)
Any chance the greatest dual meritious fellow is elected in 2008?


McGraw? Nah. Dan wont have in the top-three next election. ;-)
   19. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: October 23, 2007 at 02:43 AM (#2589829)
Wow, that was quite an outfielder backlash with Johnson, Cravath, Puckett, Duffy, Leach and Singleton all losing ground- and that's just in the top 20.


That's just because everyone realized Reggie Smith was better. :) (Oh yeah, and Oms got elected).
   20. Jeff K. Posted: October 23, 2007 at 02:53 AM (#2589841)
Hooray! I knew you guys would see the light (electing Clark.) Now, if you had just not overlooked Stanley...
   21. Juan V Posted: October 23, 2007 at 03:05 AM (#2589853)
I'd say, we dodged a bullet with Walters there....
   22. Paul Wendt Posted: October 23, 2007 at 03:05 AM (#2589854)
Wow!
In 2007 everyone must explain why they aren't voting for John McGraw.

Alejandro Oms is the first member of the Hall of Merit who earned no votes, no points at all, when he was first eligible. (Dobie Moore was also shut out but that happened midway in his candidacy at the end of our years of plenty.)
   23. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: October 23, 2007 at 03:09 AM (#2589856)
Wow. Nice job Dan (regarding Nettles). I had him high already, very happy to see your advocating his case do the trick.
   24. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: October 23, 2007 at 03:09 AM (#2589857)
Wow!
In 2007 everyone must explain why they aren't voting for John McGraw.


This is a good thing...

Since the '07 inductees are a given, I think we should really kickstart our discussion for '08: our final two backloggers. We all owe it to ourselves to review *everyone* before their last chance at sabermetric immortality expires.
   25. Mike Webber Posted: October 23, 2007 at 03:10 AM (#2589858)
Was it the most different players receiving a first place vote in a single election?
   26. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: October 23, 2007 at 03:12 AM (#2589859)
I use pennants added, with Dan's WARP, and I don't support McGraw.

I don't agree with the salary calculator - I think it's too peak centric. So it is possible to use Dan's system, and still not love McGraw as a candidate. I think he's on OK candidate, but there are better choices position player wise.

IMO Rizzuto flys to the top of the backlog position player class given reasonable war credit using Dan's system.
   27. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: October 23, 2007 at 03:17 AM (#2589862)
Joe, my salary estimator and your PA are the same thing--they both are methods to reward each marginal win in a season more than the last. The only difference is the slope of the curve. I've since switched to a different estimator which is only half as peaky as the old one, and am also applying it to seasonal totals rather than rates. This was the main factor in propelling the long-career, lowish peak, durable Nettles so high up my ballot.
   28. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 23, 2007 at 03:19 AM (#2589863)
I'd say, we dodged a bullet with Walters there....


...but got shot in the chest with Nettles? ;-)
   29. DL from MN Posted: October 23, 2007 at 04:39 AM (#2589900)
RE: 2008 - elect Raines and 2 pitchers

I think I'll get into detail later why Tiant is better than Saberhagen.
   30. Juan V Posted: October 23, 2007 at 05:01 AM (#2589905)
RE: 2008 - elect Raines and 2 pitchers

I think I'll get into detail later why Tiant is better than Saberhagen.


I like the idea, since pitchers are underrepresented relative to my PHoM. But why choose between Tiant and Sabes when you can have both? :-)
   31. DL from MN Posted: October 23, 2007 at 05:06 AM (#2589907)
Have we ever had a situation before where someone gets elected and they weren't even a _required disclosure_ from the previous year's holdovers? I'm glad Nettles was elected because I supported him but we don't even know for sure how the entire electorate ranks him because they weren't required to justify his ballot placement!
   32. DL from MN Posted: October 23, 2007 at 05:15 AM (#2589909)
I'd like to see Dick Redding supporters (who think his peak is historic) get on their soapbox. The guy gets more top ballot support than anyone else in the election but he's only on 1/3 of the ballots. Just a _few_ more ballots and he's in comfortably. Make a case for him, the reputation is certainly in his favor.
   33. OCF Posted: October 23, 2007 at 05:24 AM (#2589915)
Well, I did disclose Nettles. I had him 20th, and here's the quote: "Interesting candidate, but not enough of a hitter for me to put him with Bando and Elliott." Bando and Elliott were 8 and 9.

----

But why choose between Tiant and Sabes when you can have both?

It's not an easy choice for me, and I have Cone stepping right into the same neigborhood - of Tiant, Saberhagen, and Cone, what is the right order? (OK, so I actually think the answer is "Tommy Bridges.")
   34. OCF Posted: October 23, 2007 at 05:48 AM (#2589918)
About Paul O'Neill:

Another example of a late bloomer. Not quite as dramatic as Jose Cruz, perhaps but his performance in his 30's could just as easily be the declining years of a truly great player than what it actually is: the best years of O'Neill.

Joe Morgan famously dismissed the 1998 Yankees by asking how many of them could have started for the "Big Red Machine" Reds. Of course, if you truly evaluate that ...

The '75-'76 Reds throw standard position-by-position comparisons for a big loop, for two reasons. One is that for a great team, they didn't have great pitching. They had a great offense that carried nothing-special pitching. The '98 Yankees were very good on both offense and defense. The other issue is that the Reds had a starting lineup cast in concrete - no divided positions, no people in and out of the lineup. That's unusual, even for great teams. But just look at the position-by-position lineup anyway:

C: Johnny Bench vs. Jorge Posada
1b: Tony Perez vs. Tino Martinez
2b: Joe Morgan vs. Chuck Knoblauch
3b: Pete Rose vs. Scott Brosius
SS: Dave Concepcion vs. Derek Jeter
LF: George Foster vs. Chad Curtis/Tim Raines/Daryl Strawberry/Shane Spencer/Homer Bush
CF: Cesar Geronimo vs. Bernie Williams
RF: Ken Griffey vs. Paul O'Neill
DH and bench: Dan Driessen vs. same people as the LF list

Now, some of those are wipeouts (Morgan over anyone in the world, Williams over Geronimo) and some are possibly interesting arguments (Tony and Tino; Rose and Brosius; Foster and the fractured LF/DH gang.) But I am convinced that O'Neill would kick Griffey's butt.
   35. OCF Posted: October 23, 2007 at 05:49 AM (#2589919)
Ah, that should have gone on the O'Neill, et al. thread. Sorry. Too bad we can't edit.
   36. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: October 23, 2007 at 11:42 AM (#2589953)
Congratulations on electing Oms. I believe he's worthy and am happy he's getting the recognition.
   37. Chris Fluit Posted: October 23, 2007 at 12:30 PM (#2589972)
25. Mike Webber Posted: October 22, 2007 at 11:10 PM (#2589858)
Was it the most different players receiving a first place vote in a single election?


No. I've got the count for this election at 26. The record was at least 28, and we may have even had a 29. We came close, but no new record.

31. DL from MN Posted: October 23, 2007 at 01:06 AM (#2589907)
Have we ever had a situation before where someone gets elected and they weren't even a _required disclosure_ from the previous year's holdovers? I'm glad Nettles was elected because I supported him but we don't even know for sure how the entire electorate ranks him because they weren't required to justify his ballot placement!


No. As established above, the previous record for jump into election was Shoeless Joe from 10th to 1st. The non-boycott record was 7th to 3rd. So Nettles is the first to become elected without being a necessary disclosure.

As for how the rest of the electorate ranked him: I had him just off-ballot at 16th. For his position, I had Traynor slightly ahead. But Nettles was in line to make my ballot for 2008.
   38. jimd Posted: October 23, 2007 at 06:17 PM (#2590396)
this election had one "front-logger"

Clark is a "back-logger" (at least by my definition). The electorate voted 34-20 that he was a "back-logger", placing their own favorite deep backlogger ahead of him. He's pretty high in the backlog, and would probably get elected to the top 2/3rds of the HOM, but not the top half. Others with similar electoral support would include Billy Williams and Juan Marichal.
   39. sunnyday2 Posted: October 23, 2007 at 06:28 PM (#2590420)
That's one way to look at it. Another way is that 28 voters had him in an elect-me slot and 26 didn't. Not a true backlogger. I think the real category would be "not inner circle."
   40. jimd Posted: October 23, 2007 at 09:25 PM (#2590740)
That's one way to look at it.

Everybody's entitled to create their own definitions.

I spent some time on this one, and came up with one that works to my satisfaction in all of our elections so far, including talent gluts such as 1934. Semi-formally, a "front-logger" is someone who is voted #1 by the majority of the voters, or would have been voted #1 except for the presence of other "front-loggers".

Clark did not get a majority of the #1's, just 37%. The rest of the electorate ranked him behind their favorite back-logger. Therefore the majority saw Clark as another back-logger. QED ;-) Of course, he towers over the rest of the backlog, none of which got more than 9% of the #1's, but the consensus was still "backlog".

OTOH, Torriente averaged 69% of the vote as a "front-logger" across 4 elections from 1934-37 (an example of how the def'n works in more complex situations).

There have been 111 "front-loggers" and 117 "back-loggers" so far, splitting the HOM nearly in half.
   41. sunnyday2 Posted: October 23, 2007 at 10:36 PM (#2590830)
>he towers over the rest of the backlog,

You said it.
   42. OCF Posted: October 24, 2007 at 01:07 AM (#2590932)
I ran my once-a-decade or so individual voter cross-correlation chart for the 2006 vote.

On a 0 to 100 scale for agreement, the average pair of voters averaged 28. Even the most agreeable of voters (Sean Gilman, Trevor P, Howie Menkel, Rusty Priske, TomH) only averaged 35% agreement with all other voters; at the other end of the scale were karlmagnus and Adam Schafer at 13 and yest at 12.

We did have one extreme outlier "twin voter" case: Dan R and 'zop had a 92 agreement between them. The second highest pair was a mere 75: Dan R and Jim Sp.

There were four cases of zero agreement between pairs of voters: Adam Schafer - ronw; Adam Schafer - Got Melky; Adam Schafer - fra paolo, and yest - Juan V. Of neccessity, these cases involved voters who did not have Will Clark on their ballots.

In my own case, I had a 30 average agreement with the rest of the electorate. I was closest to Andrew M (56) and furthest from yest (4).
   43. Rick A. Posted: October 24, 2007 at 01:16 AM (#2590942)
John,

I have Elston Howard with 153 points and Frank Howard with 27

DavidFoss' 10th place vote should go to Frank Howard.
   44. Rick A. Posted: October 24, 2007 at 01:21 AM (#2590950)
Wow, that anybody could jump to election from outside of the top ten is just amazing.

I think Lundy could've done it, if the new MLE's came out earlier.
   45. OCF Posted: October 24, 2007 at 01:24 AM (#2590952)
Doing a few cases of closest and furthest voters. The format is

Voter [closest voter xx] (furthest voter yy)

Sean Gilman [Got Melky 60] (Adam Schafer 3)
Trevor P [Rob Wood 64] (Adam Schafer, yest 4)
Howie Menckel [Thane of Bagarth 60] (Adam Schafer 5)
Rusty Priske [DanG 63] (Adam Schafer 5)
TomH [ronw 60] (Adam Schafer, yest 8)
ronw [TomH 60] (Adam Schafer 0)
mulder & scully [John Murphy 68] (rico vanian 8)
Mark Shirk [Rick A 69] (karlmagnus 10)
Al Peterson [Devin McCullen 66] (rico vanian, Adam Schafer 8)
Thane of Bagarth [AJM 69] (karlmagnus 5)
andrew siegel [Andrew M 63] (yest 4)
Brent [Mike Webber 60] (Adam Schafer 8)
   46. OCF Posted: October 24, 2007 at 01:26 AM (#2590955)
I agree with Rick A's #43. Darn - I thought I'd checked that.
   47. Howie Menckel Posted: October 24, 2007 at 01:28 AM (#2590958)
all-time 'votes points' thru 2006 - those still eligible in 2007 election are in CAPS. electees are not in caps.

he's gone unnoticed for decades, but meet all time SP votes-pts king - Mickey Welch! The Mick places 6th overall... Cravath climbs 2 spots to No. 22... Walters will finally claim a top 25 spot after 2007... Grimes claims a slot in the top 30... Oms finishes 33rd... Williamson could gain a top 50 slot next year after 100+ years of trying.. Nettles leapfrogs 6 players to grab 43rd on the active list, poised to move up - eh, what's that? Oh, never mind... Bancroft takes a top 50 slot, passing sleeping OFs Hooper and Poles.

TOP 10, ALL-TIME
DUFFY...... 26460.5
VAN HALTREN 26353.5
Beckley.... 25856
Browning... 24502.5
Childs..... 18484
WELCH...... 18081
Griffith... 17924
Waddell.... 17596
REDDING.... 17080
Jennings... 16976

CJones..... 15875
Bresnahan.. 14965
TLEACH..... 14681
Sisler..... 13892
Pike....... 13399
Sewell..... 12769
Mendez..... 12555
RYAN....... 12546.5
Thompson... 12349
Roush...... 12005

Bennett.... 11503
CRAVATH.....11047
Moore...... 10904
Rixey...... 10789
Caruthers.. 10704
WALTERS.....10592
Beckwith.... 9896
HStovey......9576
DOYLE....... 9483
GRIMES.......8998

Mackey.......8930
BJOHNSON.....8655
AOms.........8385
Start........8378.5
McGinnity....8232
DPearce......8073
McVey........7985.5
FGrant.......7969.5
Kiner........7746
Suttles......7690
NFox.........7587

Trouppe......7494
BMONROE......7473
MCGRAW.......7407
WFerrell.....7259
CBell........6968
Galvin.......6585
SCHANG.......6565
Keller.......6424
Sheckard.....6377

Others in active top 50
Williamson 6291, Willis 5481, Dean 5219, Elliott 4702, Joss 4581, Bridges 4291, BTaylor 4132, FChance 3611, TPerez 3515, Rizzuto 3487, CMays 3438, Traynor 3389, NCash 3299, Cepeda 3292, McCormick 3148x, SRice 3138, Cicotte 3054, Brock 2739, Tiernan 2692X, Tiant 2657, FJones 2587, ReSmith 2550, EHoward 2421, Klein 2397, Veach 2339, GJBurns 2279, Stephens 2263, Mullane 2187, BoBonds 2167, Singleton 2126, Staub 2050, Lombardi 2040, Dunlap 2015, Bancroft 1849, Poles 1842X

(just missed)
Hooper 1792X, Lundy 1722, BClarkson 1700
   48. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: October 24, 2007 at 01:35 AM (#2590962)
OCF--no surprise there. Although I've managed to take all the credit for the WARP numbers I've compiled (if credit is what they deserve), 'zop had a tremendous amount of input into its development, and has been regularly critiquing my recent work on pitchers. His thinking has had a lot of influence on my ballot, and mine on his, so it's only reasonable that our ballots would be very similar. That said, the two of us have some philosophical differences that never seem to go away: durability vs. longevity (he values the former more than I do), the importance of accounting for segregation (I think it matters tremendously, he doesn't seem to), the size of the appropriate bonus for catchers (I once had to talk him out of considering a vote for Chief Meyers!), and the value of career for pitchers (although the replacement of Dean with Gooden on his ballot this year suggests he is now counting it more than he used to).
   49. OCF Posted: October 24, 2007 at 01:41 AM (#2590967)
Starting from the other end:

yest [rico vanian 44] (Juan V 0)
Adam Schafer [John Murphy 48] (ronw, Got Melky, fra paolo 0)
karlmagnus [Ken Fischer 30] (Rob Wood 3)
rico vanian [SWW 51] (DL from MN 3)
Don F [SWW 45] (Juan V 4)
Juan V [favre 45] (yest 0)
sunnyday2 [Mark Donelson 61] (karlmagnus 3)
EricC [DanG 39] (Chris Fluit 3)
Chris Fluit [Rick A 50] (EricC 3)
Daryn [SWW 55] (Adam Schafer 5)
Joe Dimino [Jim Sp 71] (yest 3)
Dan R ['zop 92] (yest 2)
David Foss [ronw 53] (Don F 10)
Jim Sp [Dan R 75] (yest 2)
Patrick W [Thane of Bagarth 56] (yest 4)
'zop [Dan R 92] (yest 2)
   50. Rick A. Posted: October 24, 2007 at 01:49 AM (#2590972)
Howie,

I've got Joss with 4541
McCormick with 3163(he picked up 15pts. after decades with 0)
EHoward with 2410
Burns with 2281
Stephens with 2264
Clarkson with 1800

Between Hooper and Lundy, I've got Mike Griffin with 1726.5
   51. Howie Menckel Posted: October 24, 2007 at 02:08 AM (#2590991)
thanks to Rick A (the wizard behind the oz), these are FIXED.........
...........................................

all-time 'votes points' thru 2006 - those still eligible in 2007 election are in CAPS. electees are not in caps.

he's gone unnoticed for decades, but meet all time SP votes-pts king - Mickey Welch! The Mick places 6th overall... Cravath climbs 2 spots to No. 22... Walters will finally claim a top 25 spot after 2007... Grimes claims a slot in the top 30... Oms finishes 33rd... Williamson could gain a top 50 slot next year after 100+ years of trying.. Nettles leapfrogs 6 players to grab 43rd on the active list, poised to move up - eh, what's that? Oh, never mind... Bancroft takes a top 50 slot, passing sleeping OFs Hooper and Poles.

TOP 10, ALL-TIME
DUFFY...... 26460.5
VAN HALTREN 26353.5
Beckley.... 25856
Browning... 24502.5
Childs..... 18484
WELCH...... 18081
Griffith... 17924
Waddell.... 17596
REDDING.... 17080
Jennings... 16976

CJones..... 15875
Bresnahan.. 14965
TLEACH..... 14681
Sisler..... 13892
Pike....... 13399
Sewell..... 12769
Mendez..... 12555
RYAN....... 12546.5
Thompson... 12349
Roush...... 12005

Bennett.... 11503
CRAVATH.....11047
Moore...... 10904
Rixey...... 10789
Caruthers.. 10704
WALTERS.....10592
Beckwith.... 9896
HStovey......9576
DOYLE....... 9483
GRIMES.......8998

Mackey.......8930
BJOHNSON.....8655
AOms.........8385
Start........8378.5
McGinnity....8232
DPearce......8073
McVey........7985.5
FGrant.......7969.5
Kiner........7746
Suttles......7690
NFox.........7587

Trouppe......7494
BMONROE......7473
MCGRAW.......7407
WFerrell.....7259
CBell........6968
Galvin.......6585
SCHANG.......6565
Keller.......6424
Sheckard.....6377

Others in active top 50
Williamson 6291, Willis 5481, Dean 5219, Elliott 4702, Joss 4541, Bridges 4291, BTaylor 4132, FChance 3611, TPerez 3515, Rizzuto 3487, CMays 3438, Traynor 3389, NCash 3299, Cepeda 3292, McCormick 3163, SRice 3138, Cicotte 3054, Brock 2739, Tiernan 2692X, Tiant 2657, FJones 2587, ReSmith 2550, EHoward 2410, Klein 2397, Veach 2339, GJBurns 2281, Stephens 2264, Mullane 2187, BoBonds 2167, Singleton 2126, Staub 2050, Lombardi 2040, Dunlap 2015, Bancroft 1849, Poles 1842X

(just missed)
BClarkson 1800, Hooper 1792X, Griffin 1726.5X, Lundy 1722
   52. OCF Posted: October 24, 2007 at 02:25 AM (#2591002)
A slice out of the middle:

Chris Cobb [Trevor P 57] (Adam Schafer, yest 4)
DanG [Rusty Priske 63] (yest 4)
Mark Donelson [Tiboreau 61] (yest 4)
fra paolo [jimd 54] (Adam Schafer 0)
KJOK [TomH 59] (yest 3)
rawagman [andrew siegel 56] (Jim Sp 8)
OCF [Andrew M 56] (yest 4)
Esteban Rivera [John Murphy 48] (Adam Schafer 7)
jimd [fra paolo 54] (karlmagnus, Adam Schafer 12)
Rob Wood [Trevor P 64] (karlmagnus 3)
John Murphy [mulder & scully 68] (Jim Sp, Dan R 8)
Rick A [Mark Shirk 69] (DL from MN 5)

Note: yest had Clark 15th. If you voted Clark #1 and had no other candidates in common with yest, that's a 4. If you had only Clark in common with yest and didn't put him #1, then the agreement is 2 or 3. (or maybe 4 if Clark was elect-me).
   53. jimd Posted: October 24, 2007 at 02:31 AM (#2591005)
he towers over the rest of the backlog,

You said it.


But not to the same degree as did Gossage or Whitaker or Ozzie or Eckersley (to name some other recent candidates). Those players did get 50%+ "front-log" ratings, i.e, more than 50% of the voters placed them ahead of their top backlogger. In those elections, when asked the question, "Is this candidate better than my favorite back-logger", the majority said "Yes". With Clark, the majority said "No".
   54. jingoist Posted: October 24, 2007 at 02:48 AM (#2591020)
Greg Nettles one of the all-time best 250 players? NOT!
   55. rawagman Posted: October 24, 2007 at 03:29 AM (#2591030)
Based on all of OCF's lists, I truly the eclectic's Mr. Consensus. Not too much like anybody else, but not overly irreverent. A little bit of everyone can be found in my ballot - but not necessarily in that order.
   56. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 24, 2007 at 12:29 PM (#2591169)
John,

I have Elston Howard with 153 points and Frank Howard with 27

DavidFoss' 10th place vote should go to Frank Howard.


It's OCF's and Ron's fault! :-)

Seriously, I missed it with my quick scan of the totals. Thanks, Rick!
   57. Mark Donelson Posted: October 24, 2007 at 02:27 PM (#2591335)
Greg Nettles one of the all-time best 250 players? NOT!

No, no, it's Craig Nettles. ;)
   58. JPWF13 Posted: October 24, 2007 at 06:48 PM (#2591692)
Nettles one of the all-time best 250 players? NOT!


6 time all star (have there been 250 players who can say that?)
27th in career games
59th in career PAs
87th in career RBIs
74th in career BBs
97th in career TBs
149th in runs created
164th in runs scored

One of the best defensive 3bs of all time- definately top 5,
   59. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: October 24, 2007 at 08:17 PM (#2591859)
Jingoist, give us 249 better . . . go!

PS - all in one post please.
   60. fra paolo Posted: October 27, 2007 at 10:18 AM (#2595600)
Coming back for this result, I'm struck by a change in the mood of the electorate, at least so it seems to me. Back when we elected Dick Allen, and about the same time we elected Kiner, I thought that we had a slight bias toward peak candidacies. However, it seems to me that career value carries more weight at the moment. Or am I misreading things? Nettles and Dawson, two fellows whose peaks looked suspect to me, have won election. I wonder if the peakist vote is scattered among several backlog candidacies, while the careerist vote has concentrated behind their own for want of having choices.
   61. sunnyday2 Posted: October 27, 2007 at 12:27 PM (#2595613)
Well, Nettles was DanR's guy. There's nothing else you need to know.
   62. Chris Fluit Posted: October 27, 2007 at 01:15 PM (#2595627)
I think it swings back and forth. If you look at the top ten now, there are quite a few peak candidates there, especially on the pitching end.
   63. Brent Posted: October 27, 2007 at 01:18 PM (#2595631)
I think that both pure peak voters and pure career voters have always represented a minority of the overall electorate--I observe most voters mixing in some candidates of both types. And even though my own tendencies are more toward peak (and I don't use DanR's system), I don't think Nettles is a bad selection--he'll probably go into my PHoM in 2008, filling one of the last backlog slots. I disagreed with Dawson's election, but he did have enough peak to appeal to a cross section of voters. And keep in mind that you only need 46% of the voters to rank you in their top 15 to be elected.
   64. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: October 27, 2007 at 01:31 PM (#2595636)
Nettles and Dawson, two fellows whose peaks looked suspect to me, have won election.

Both players have excellent peaks, approximately equivalent to Kiner or Keller.

I think one of the side effects of Dan R.'s work is that it has forced us to consider defense and baserunning more quantitatively. As it turns out, many of the long career guys at glove positions had terrifically high defense+baserunning peaks as younger players. A player who seemed to be HoVG or to never have had a MVP-caliber season based upon hitting alone, suddenly looks much better.

In the case of Nettles, once you added up his slg-heavy hitting in a low offense era with his amazing defense (the greatest single defensive season at 3B since WWII), you found a player that was 98% of Brooks Robinson. That's a Hall of Merit player, no matter if you're a peak or prime voter.

Regarding Dawson, once you adjusted his ~1980-1983 for great defense, good baserunning, slg-heavy OPS in a low-offense context, and the low standard deviation of performance in the early 80's, Dawson's peak is above the in-out line for a peak voter.
   65. sunnyday2 Posted: October 27, 2007 at 02:18 PM (#2595645)
Not to mention Dawson's best year was '81. Hopefully you adjust that to 162 games. Suddenly he's got a 37.5 WS season which (I'm guessing) is one of the top 15 seasons of the decade. It's only one season, but still, that's a far cry from being a guy whose best season was 29 WS.
   66. AROM Posted: October 27, 2007 at 04:17 PM (#2595732)
I've been working with retrosheet files to come up with defensive ratings for players 1957 up to the zone rating era. Nettles does come out as a great defender, from 1970 to 1983 he was +84 runs by range. By double plays, he was actually not that great, -10 runs. I thought this was a little weird because I now he had the 1971 season with 54 double plays. That year he was +2 double play runs, while Brooks Robinson was +3 despite only 35 DP.

The difference is in opportunity. My parameters for DP opps is this: bbtype = groundball, outs < 2, runner on first, ball fielded by third baseman. When I run this I get a little under the player's actual DP's, probably due to DP's that involve catching a linedrive, or tagging a runner out at third on a strike em out, throw em out.

Anyway, Nettles had 113 opportunities to turn a DP, and Robinson only 67. This is mostly because the Baltimore staff walked about 350 fewer batters than the Indians.
   67. AROM Posted: October 27, 2007 at 04:18 PM (#2595734)
Range-wise, the 1971 season was Nettles' best, at +28 runs.
   68. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: October 27, 2007 at 04:59 PM (#2595762)
sunnyday2 Posted: October 27, 2007 at 08:27 AM (#2595613)

Well, Nettles was DanR's guy. There's nothing else you need to know.


That sounds awfully snide, sunnyday, but I'm not really sure exactly what you mean.

'zop, I supported both Nettles and Dawson, but they definitely didn't have the peak of a Kiner or a Keller. Nettles's best year was 6.6 WARP2 (twice); Dawson had the one huge strike year which has to be regressed and nothing else above 6, while Kiner and Keller have multiple seasons above 7.5. That said, I certainly agree with your general point--that both Dawson and Nettles had numerous years where they played well enough to deserve to start the All-Star game in a typical season. That's *enough* peak to get over in the in/out line given the strength of their primes and careers, but it certainly wouldn't be enough if they didn't have the bulk to go with it.

AROM, 28 runs for Nettles' 1971 is pretty close to what FRAA, Fielding Win Shares, and DRA all find, so you must be doing something right.
   69. fra paolo Posted: October 27, 2007 at 05:18 PM (#2595771)
Range-wise, the 1971 season was Nettles' best, at +28 runs.


AROM, what value do you give Brooks Robinson's 1967 season? At the moment that's my best single season since 1957, but I'm far from complete with my data. I've got Nettles in 1971 at +57.8.
   70. sunnyday2 Posted: October 27, 2007 at 05:37 PM (#2595787)
It means that you supported Nettles and he got elected (from 16th). None of that is a matter of opinion, I don't think.
   71. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: October 27, 2007 at 06:50 PM (#2595834)
Clearly, but what makes him "my guy" more than any other voter who supported him?
   72. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 27, 2007 at 06:55 PM (#2595841)
Clearly, but what makes him "my guy" more than any other voter who supported him?


You have his class ring?

Seriously :-), your analysis has a significant following here. Nothing to be ashamed about there, Dan. It may just mean that you are the most influential voter here now.
   73. DavidFoss Posted: November 12, 2007 at 05:15 PM (#2612185)
bump

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