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Hall of Merit
— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best

Monday, November 05, 2007

2007 Ballot (Elect Three)

Prominent new candidates: Cal Ripken, Tony Gwynn, Mark McGwire, Tony Fernandez, Harold Baines, Paul O’Neill, Jose Canseco, Bobby Bonilla, Wally Joyner, Ken Caminiti, David Cone, Devon White and Eric Davis.

Top-ten returnees: Reggie Smith, Bucky Walters, Cannonball Dick Redding, Bob Johnson, Bret Saberhagen, John McGraw and Tony Perez.

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: November 05, 2007 at 05:03 PM | 186 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   101. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: November 12, 2007 at 07:29 AM (#2611975)
A very strong ballot class this year. Best #15 player ever? Not that the top of the list is shabby either. I wonder if some of these guys decided to call it quits after 9/11. Wouldn’t blame them.

I haven’t done any boycotts in the past, and I’m not changing at this point. Ripken, Gwynn & McGwire are 1,2,3. Fernandez and Cone are down around 60. Baines isn’t in my top 100 – his rates are just too weak to be a credible candidate.

1. Cal Ripken, Jr. (new) A bit overrated, but still had a tremendous peak and, um, pretty durable. Makes my PHoM this year.

2. Tony Gwynn (new) I’m enough of a career voter to prefer him to McGwire, although it’s close. Makes my PHoM this year.

3. Mark McGwire (new) In all honesty, I’d like to dock him something because I’m pretty certain his numbers are steroid-inflated, but that does not seem to be an option here. (He’d still make it in this year, though.) He had some amazing years, but he’s definitely third. Makes my PHoM this year.

4. Bus Clarkson (1) Parallels Elliot’s career, but with war credit he comes out ahead, and he presumably had more defensive value. The latest MLE’s didn’t boost him that much, but it was enough to move him to the upper reaches of my ballot. (Quick comparison to Sandberg – WS 344 to 346 in 800 fewer PA, OPS+ 123 to 114, 3B/SS to 2B. Even deflating the MLEs a bit, that looks pretty close to me.) Made my PHoM in 1997.

5. Dick Redding (2) Seems to have a pretty good peak, and also has somewhat of a career argument. I still tend to think he’s close enough to Mendez that they both should be in or out. Made my PHoM in 1973.

6. Reggie Smith (3) For now, I think he’s the best of the 70’s OF glut. Win Shares really likes him. Not sure how I feel about those clutch numbers. WARP doesn’t have that great an opinion of his fielding, all things considered. After listening to Dan’s arguments, I have to agree he should be ahead of Johnson. Made my PHoM in 1995.

7. Bill Monroe (4) NOT surprised to see I was his Best Friend. The new Cuban translations boost him a slight bit, as we have more evidence for his quality. A good player at an important defensive position, with a great reputation for his fielding. People like to promote the 1890s as underrepresented, but that doesn't mean the 00s and 10s are overrepresented. Made my PHoM in 1939.

8. Bob Johnson (6) I'm impressed by his consistency, he was an above-average player every year for 13 seasons, plus he got started very late in the bigs, so I will give him at least 1 year of minor league credit. It appears the era considerations have been a little overblown, but as I said, Dan has convinced me that Smith is a little better. Made my PHoM in 1992.

9. George Van Haltren (7) A very good player for a long time, even if he was never truly great. I don't reject all peak arguments, but I'll take his consistency over Duffy's big years. Made my PHoM in 1972.

10. Tommy Leach (8) Dropped from the top of my ballot because I had to admit that Robinson was a better 3B candidate, and I wasn’t all that crazy about his argument either. And now I’m wondering if I had Brooksie too high…but he also looks very similar to Lundy’s new numbers, and I think he’s just ahead of him. Excellent fielder at important positions, OK hitter. One of the most complete players on the ballot. Made my PHoM in 1940.

11. Gavvy Cravath (9) With the basic 07, 09-11 additions, this is where I have him. A better peak than Johnson, but less consistent. WARP isn't as fond of him as WS, but he compares well to Kiner & Keller. Made my PHoM in 1987.

12. Dick Lundy (10) It’s a shame that the new numbers came up at the last minute, so I do hope that I won’t regret this in a couple of “years”. But assuming the data is accurate, I can’t see a reason to put Rizzuto ahead of him, so he has to go at least here. Made my PHoM last year.

13. Phil Rizzuto (11) He does come out as comparable to Sewell in total value, but it’s very defense-heavy, and even if it’s unfair, I’m less certain about that. Might deserve Minor League credit for 1940 (I’m not counting it at the moment.) Made my PHoM in 1997.

14. Norm Cash (12) A lot of good years, but I really think he's the Beckley of the 60s, with a shorter career (although that's not really much of a criticism), and the fluke year. He really does look pretty similar to Hernandez, and for some reason has 6 Win Shares Gold Gloves to Keith's 1. Made my PHoM in 2003.

15. Luis Tiant (14) I found it really hard to separate him from Saberhagen, so I think they both should be in. He had some outstanding years, and contributed long enough to build up a decent career value. There were a lot of great pitchers in his era, but that happens sometimes. Made my PHoM in 2005.

16. Elston Howard (14) If you give him fair credit for being stuck in the Negro Leagues and behind Yogi, he looks like the best catcher candidate on the ballot to me. But I wonder if his early 60s-peak just would have happened 5 years earlier under other circumstances. I admit there’s a fair amount of “What-if-ing” here, but it’s the best guess I can make. Made my PHoM in 2004.
17. Bret Saberhagen (15) Not quite as good as Stieb, very comparable to Dean as a peak candidate but just a little better. WARP loves him, he has about 1 point less than Morris (in 1300 fewer innings) and Grimes (1600). Made my PHoM last year
18. Bobby Bonds (17) A very strong prime candidate, but neither his peak nor career totals really stand out.
(18A Max Carey)
19. Ben Taylor (18) Another solid candidate who might have been overlooked.
(19A Rube Foster, 19B Andre Dawson)
20. Ron Cey (19) Better than I expected, extremely consistent. Clearly looks ahead of Bando and Nettles to me - better hitter than Nettles, better fielder than Bando, better peak than both of them. He wasn't any worse than Evans, but didn't last as long. Major worry is overcrowding of 3B in this era.
21. Dizzy Dean (20) Is his peak case really that much weaker than Keller and Kiner? I'm wondering. And with Stieb being a peak/prime guy, is he that much better than Dizzy?
22. Tony Perez (21) He does have a good peak, but his late-70s years aren't much above average. And for a mostly 1B guy, even his peak OPS+s aren’t impressive.
(22A Sam Thompson, 22B Charley Jones)
23. Tommy Bridges (22) I've been underrating him.
24. Bob Elliott (23) He’s pretty similar to Cey, and when you discount for wartime play, he’s behind. Not that much better a hitter, and he can’t be considered a better fielder.
25. Vern Stephens (24) Close to Rizzuto, but with the wartime discount and the sudden dropoff after 1950, not quite there.
26. Orlando Cepeda (25) A little ways behind the other 1Bmen. They all have a stronger argument for one angle or another. He did get his career off to a great start, though.
(26A Nellie Fox, 26B Richie Ashburn,)
27. Don Newcombe (26 Basically the only pitcher candidate left from the 50s, and he has an interesting argument – see the discussion in the Belle thread about alcoholism.
(27A Ralph Kiner, 27B Roger Bresnahan, 27C Graig Nettles)
28. Rusty Staub (27) A career candidate with some peak value, but also picked up WS by just hanging around. Could rank higher. Definitely behind Perez.
29. Kirby Puckett (29) Yes, some very good years, but his peak doesn't match Murphy's. I can't have him too far ahead of Dale.
(29A Hughie Jennings, 29B George Sisler, 29C Rollie Fingers)
30. Dale Murphy (30) Excellent peak, but the total package isn’t as good as Puckett’s with the extreme dropoff.

31. Tony Lazzeri
32. Jack Clark
33. Dave Bancroft
34. Bucky Walters (34) Would be higher, but when you consider a wartime discount, his 115 ERA+ really isn’t impressive.
35. Ken Singleton
(35A. Pete Browning)
36. Sal Bando
37. Albert Belle
38. Burleigh Grimes
39. Lou Brock
40. Marvin Williams

45. John McGraw (45) Just not enough meat on the bones for me. Yes, he was great when he played, but he just didn’t play enough IMO.
   102. Brent Posted: November 12, 2007 at 02:14 PM (#2612042)
Does any semi-educated fan *not* see Ripken and Gehrig as #2 and #1 all-time at their positions based on actual career value?

"Semi-educated" is the appropriate adjective, since any fully educated fan ought to acknowledge that John H. Lloyd also has a reasonable claim as #2 at SS.
   103. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: November 12, 2007 at 02:51 PM (#2612061)
"Semi-educated" is the appropriate adjective, since any fully educated fan ought to acknowledge that John H. Lloyd also has a reasonable claim as #2 at SS.


Anson has a case at first, too.
   104. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: November 12, 2007 at 02:59 PM (#2612068)
I should have clarified that I was limiting the comparison to pitchers' mound-era MLB.
   105. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: November 12, 2007 at 03:02 PM (#2612070)
30 ballots tallied so far (which is very feeble, BTW).

I'm still missing ballots from andrew siegel, Jim Sp, SWW, Mark Shirk, Tom D, Mike Webber, DavidFoss, DanG, mulder and scully, Brent, the Commish, Thane of Bagarath, Chris Cobb, Andrew M, Ken Fischer, Esteban Rivera, Patrick W, Tiboreau, Max Parkinson, KJOK, Juan V, Dan Rosenheck, Trevor P, Kenn and fra paolo.

If jimd doesn't submit a ballot by the deadline, I will submit his ballot from the discussion thread.

All ballots need to be in no later than 8 PM EDT.

I'm not emailing anyone, since this election is a done deal.
   106. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: November 12, 2007 at 03:04 PM (#2612073)
I should have clarified that I was limiting the comparison to pitchers' mound-era MLB.


I figured you were, Dan, since almost everybody does anyway. :-)
   107. Esteban Rivera Posted: November 12, 2007 at 03:22 PM (#2612084)
2007 Ballot:

1. Cal Ripken – Fantastic player in his 20’s, dropped of in his 30’s (though still as good as most other shortstops).

2. Tony Gwynn – Man could he hit.

3. Mark McGwire – No penalty or boycott. Third because of his peak.

4. Bill Monroe - Seems to be one of the best second basemen of his time.

5. Hugh Duffy - His credentials are that he was for a time one of the best players and he produced during the 90's. Was an outstanding defensive outfielder.

6. Bob Johnson – Have been overlooking Indian Bob. PCL credit counterbalances any war discounts.

7. Mickey Welch - The 300 game winner. The discussion of the past couple of years has made me realize that Welch should be a HOMer. Is not that far behind Keefe.

8. Vic Willis –Blame the cohort analysis for making me take another look at Vic.

9. Bob Elliott – The post someone made about holding his outfield time against him was true in my case. Not as much an outfielder as I had previously thought.

10. Tony Perez - See him similar to Beckley in terms of value. His prime/career value is pretty good. Third base years help.

11. Kirby Puckett - Basically a peak/prime vote. Does not have any filler years at beginning or end of career and his defense /offense combination for his position and era give him the edge over the other candidates.

12. Burleigh Grimes - Has enough big seasons and career bulk to edge him over other similar candidates.

13. Pie Traynor - I'll agree that he is not as great as the praises make him out to be but he still has a worthy resume.

14. Gavvy Cravath – One of the enigmas in terms of career interpretation. His career in the majors combined with my interpretation of the other information places him here.

15. Fred Dunlap – Chris Cobb’s study a few elections ago on the merits of Browning actually convinced me that I had Dunlap too low. He makes his way to the final spot on my ballot. Even with the discounted UA season he put quite a package together.

Not on ballot but made Top 10:

Bucky Walters – Actually not a bad candidate but the breaks don’t go his way (war years, sterling defenses) and are enough to keep him off my ballot for now.

Dick Redding – Too much uncertainty surrounding him to put him on my ballot.

Reggie Smith – The in-season durability issues are a factor for me.

John McGraw – Same as Smith, durability issues.

Bret Saberhagen – Not enough innings pitched.
   108. Andrew M Posted: November 12, 2007 at 03:39 PM (#2612091)
2007 Ballot

1. Cal Ripken
2. Tony Gwynn
3. Mark McGwire
To me, the only question here was whether McGwire ought to be #2. In the end, I didn’t think his 162 OPS+ was enough to make up Gwynn’s 3000 extra ABs. (And Gwynn could hit a little, too.)

4. Bob Johnson. It’s hard not to think he would already be in the HoM had he gotten an earlier start on his career. Career OPS+ 138, 10 times in AL top 10. EQA .308 compares favorably to other OF candidates. Also had a good glove.

5. Tommy Bridges. Despite finishing in the AL top 10 in innings five times, he was not much of a workhorse. When he did pitch, though, he was very good. He finished his career with just fewer than 3,000 IP and his top ERA+ season is 147. He’s also probably missing 360 or so innings from 1944 and 45, and he had six seasons in which his ERA+ was between 140 and 147 (and ten seasons in which he was in the top 10 in the AL.)

6. Larry Doyle. There doesn’t seem to be much middle ground with Doyle. He looks to me like the best offensive player on the best offensive team in the league 1911-1913, he had a career OPS+ of 126 and OWP of .666, and was consistently in the NL top 10 in HRs, slugging pct., and a variety of other offensive statistics. He also won an MVP award and was the best 2B in the NL by Win Shares for 7 seasons and 2nd best for a couple of others. And his fielding didn’t seem to bother his manager or contemporary observers as much as it bothers us. By all accounts Doyle played extremely hard and captained the team for several years.

7. Dave Bancroft. Great glove, above average hitter, walked a lot. Had some durability issues, but ended up with over 110 WARP(1) and had a couple of 10+ WARP seasons.

8. Luis Tiant. An odd career. Had the misfortune to have his best season the same year as McLain won 31 games. I’d argue Tiant was the better pitcher that year--though it’s close. Was then injured for a few years before coming back and having several excellent seasons for the Red Sox in the mid 70s.

9. Tommie Leach. Played two important defensive positions well and generated a decent amount of offensive value while doing it. Long career for his era.

10. Reggie Smith. I see him and B. Johnson as being similarly qualified. BP’s WARP likes Johnson more than Smith, but it’s close.

11. Phil Rizzuto. Great glove, probably not as good a hitter as Bancroft. Missing essentially 4 seasons at age 25-28 because of WW2.

12. Dale Murphy. Posted 4 30+ WS seasons (and 5 10+ WARP) seasons between 1980-1987 while rarely missing a game. No idea what happened after that.

13. Bucky Walters. You can’t be much better than he was in 1939. Also the best pitcher in the NL in 1940, perhaps 1941, 1944. Could also hit and field.

14. Bob Elliott. Best 3B in the NL from 1943-50. Consistently ranked in the top 10 in the NL in WS and OPS+ over that period. Above average glove

15. George J. Burns. Another guy who rarely missed a game. He also got on base a lot, could field and run, had 3 MVP caliber seasons (1914, 1917, 1919) and averaged close to 27 Win Shares a season for a decade. It isn’t a stretch to think of him as having been best OF in the NL from 1913-1920.

Next 15
Tony Perez
Bret Saberhagen
Vern Stephens
Addie Joss
Ken Singleton
Tommy John
Dick Redding
Norm Cash
Vic Willis
Dave Concepcion
Urban Shocker
Jimmy Ryan
Andre Dawson
Geo. Van Haltren
Johnny Evers

Required disclosures:
Perez, Saberhagen. Literally numbers 16 and 17 on my ballot. I’ve voted for both in the past.
John McGraw. Great player, but I’ve never thought he played enough to make the ballot.
Dick Redding. I like him, but I have never been sure that he was better than the guys I have above him.
   109. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: November 12, 2007 at 03:45 PM (#2612100)
I'll definitely take Passeau over Walters in the '40 NL--those Reds were among the handful of greatest defensive teams in history.
   110. andrew siegel Posted: November 12, 2007 at 04:25 PM (#2612140)
I vote subjectively taking all info into account. I weigh 7-year prime and career (measured over a true replacement baseline) approximately equally, but have a soft spot for players with sufficient quantity and quality who spread it out over more seasons due to playing time concerns. I began the project as a WS voter (with subjective modifications) but have become more eclectic as we have gone on. I am currently a big fan of Dan R.'s numbers though I reject the salary estimator and think Dan gives lots of credit to players in the 1970s that better should have gone to the managers and GMs. For pitchers, I basically use the WARP/JOe D. numbers, though I am skeptical of their love for modern hurlers.

(1) Ripken (new)--Lots of so-so seasons, but the total value and the peak years put him in the top 50 All-Time. Trails only Wagner, Lloyd, Vaughn, and A-Rod at SS.

(2) McGwire (new)--I could see it either way between him and Gwynn. Gwynn is in the All-Time top 10 in RF and McGwire is only about 12th at 1B, but the 1B list seems more impressive overall. At his peak (which was short) he hit like Gehrig or Foxx.

(3) Gwynn (new)--Like Waner or Kaline. An easy electee, but a run-of-the-mill HoMer.

(4) Bridges (2nd)--Like Cash, Schang, Ted Lyons, Roush, etc., he's underrated by our tendency to focus on seasonal numbers (so why so much love for Whitaker?). Put up lots of quality and sufficient quantity. I have him with 8 truly excellent seasons--no pitcher outside the HoM has more. Every time I stumble upon a new metric, he leads a dozen or so HOM pitchers. Your mileage may vary on how to treat different kinds of pitchers, but I don't see how anyone can have him outside the top 30 or 35.

(5) Reggie Smith (4th)--Very similar on all dimensions to Cash and Wynn; similar offensively to Roush and Johnson. A bit more consistent than Wynn. More career value than Dale Murphy in a similar opportunity context. Similar career value to Dawson in a smaller opportunity context. Add that all up and he is an underrated gem.

(6) Leach (5th)--If you subtract Brooks Robinson's final useless seasons and project Leach's years out to 162 games, Robinson and Leach have almost identical EQA's and defensive rates in a very similar number of games. The only difference is that half of Leach's games were in CF rather than 3B. Hard to imagine that keeping him out of the HoM. A lot like Darrell Evans, only with contemporary reports that match his stellar defensive numbers.

(7) Ben Taylor (6th)--I missed the boat on him. I had him comped to Konetchy and, therefore, outside the top 50. But (1) I had Konetchy too low and (2) his offense was one rung better than Ed's. As a result, he is close to Hernandez and pretty much a dead ringer for Cash.

(8) Cravath (10th)--I give full minor league credit and see him as the best hitter not in HoM. The knock is that the other candidates for that title (folks like Tiernan, Fournier, and Frank Howard) are much further down ballot. Still, moves up this week after I applied the "one-spot-left-who-can't-be-left-out-rule" to the mid-ballot guys.

(9) Urban Shocker (9th)--Joe makes his case well. He didn't pitch a ton of innings or a ton of years but--when you combine durability and quality and adjust for defense--he was one of the best handful of pitchers in the game for a decade. A lot like Tommy Bridges or Dave Stieb or Billy Pierce.

(10) Norm Cash (7th)--Dropped yet another a few spots on further qualms about league quality, but still deserves induction. Put up lots of quality and quantity; quality hidden by WS b/c/ he split his games among more seasons.

(11) Bob Johnson (7th)--A real problem: meets our HoM standards for his era and postion but there is a good argument we set those standards a bit low. Doesn't jump out at you, but no major knocks on his resume--one of the highest OWP of any long-career OF still on the board, over 300 WS with proper minor leaue credit even playing for bad teams, great consistency, excellent fielder for his position.

(12) Dick Lundy (13th)--Even if you take 5% off the new MLEs, he is a deadringer for contemporary Dave Bancroft (who sat in this spot on the ballot last week), only with a substantially longer career. Might rise further in the coming years.

(13) Elston Howard (12th)--After much mack-and-forth, I've decided to switch to a purely subjective methodology with him and project what someone of his skills would have done in the majors if born white. I think it is very likely that he would have been a starting catcher in the bigs for some of the years he waited behind Berra if he were fairly evaluated by all the major league teams. Players as good as Howard rarely sit for that long. Seems much less speculative to give him such credit than Clarkson, e.g.

(14) Dale Murphy (11th)--His case rests on six seasons. We have elected a bunch of guys who reached a similar plateau for seven years (e.g., Wynn) and rejected a number who were there for only four or five (e.g., Parker). Six seasons is a very close call.

(15) John McGraw (14th)--I've always liked Frank Chance better (and still do as a hitter) but hadn't been giving enough credit to McGraw's baserunning or defensive value.

Elliot is next, followed by Schang, Chance, Nettles, Bancroft, Saberhagen, and Lee Smith in some order.

David Cone is in the top 50 but nowhere close to the ballot.

Bucky Walters is in the 50's; he has a great peak but a lot of that is his defense. When you adjust for defense, I prefer Dizzy Dean and Dizzy Trout.

Dick Redding's numbers don't match his reputation. He's somewhere around 80th.

Saberhagen is probably 17th. I like him a lot, just wish there was a little more or that the good seasons were a little more predictable.

Tony Perez is in the late 20's. If you trust his defensive numbers at 3B, he wouldn't be a disasterous pick.
   111. DanG Posted: November 12, 2007 at 04:51 PM (#2612162)
My “system”? Emphasizes prime and career; give me steady production over a fluke year or two or three. Seeing no need to reinvent the wheel, I look at win shares and WARP and rely on the interpretations of these by other analysts. IMO, our group overvalues peak; I like guys who play. There’s also a tendency here to cut and run from well-seasoned candidates. Finally, unlike Bill James and most voters I don’t give any “consecutive-seasons” bonus; value is value.

My ballot, Teddy Bears and all. My #1, #8 and #15 were elected. Ripken, Gwynn, McGwire and Cone come on for 2007. In 2008, it’s Raines and two older candidates. Then, in 2009, it’s The Ricky plus two more backloggers. Alomar and Larkin lead a strong class in 2010, along with McGriff, Edgar M and Robin (The Body) Ventura.

1) Cal Ripken – Top 60 all-time.

2) Tony Gwynn – Top 90 all-time.

3) Mark McGwire – Top 100 all-time.

4) George Van Haltren – We’ve now elected 19(!) players who were behind him in 1972. Huh? Were we so wrong about him for 50+ elections? No, we’re wrong now. Now in his 99th year eligible. Pennants Added study shows him well. He excelled in the contraction years 1892-1900; he had high SB totals (usually 35-40 in his prime years), which I believe was more important pre-1920; he was a mainly a centerfielder (~71.7% of his non-pitching games vs. ~47.6% for Ryan and 61.5% for Wynn), Ryan (and Duffy) actually played more corner outfield. Had 381 adjusted WS for career, with 11 years of 25+ and a 3-yr peak of 89 from 1896-98. Had 111.3 WARP1 for career, with 10 years of 7.0+ and a 3-yr peak of 27.9 from 1896-98.

Players with <u>most stolen bases 1891-1900: </u>
1—660 B. Hamilton
2—443 G. Van Haltren
3—416 H. Duffy

One non-HoMer here, Players with <u>3400 times on base 1871-1909</u>:
1—4433 C. Anson
2—3954 J. Burkett
3—3729 J. Beckley
4—3661 B. Dahlen
5—3605 G. Davis
6—3579 W. Keeler
7—3507 R. Connor
8—3438 G. Van Haltren
9—3434 B. Hamilton
10—3431 E. Delahanty

5) Tony Perez – Even-steven with Staub in win shares, but drubs Rusty in WARP3; in 12-year weighted prime Perez beats him 8.41 to 7.43. Career lovers delight with enough peak to make him great. <u>Firstbasmen with most Total Bases over a 15-year period, 1949-98</u>:

1977-91 4181 E. Murray
1967-81 3915 T.Perez
1959-73 3810 H. Killebrew
1972-86 3800 S. Garvey
1958-72 3684 O. Cepeda
1966-80 3430 L. May
1973-87 3400 C. Cooper
1963-77 3379 D. Allen
1973-87 3375 B. Buckner
1963-77 3360 W. McCovey

6) Tommy Leach – Enjoyed his highest finish in sixty years in 2002; he finished ahead of ten HoMers in 1942. I think it’s what Bill James once said, that all-around players get overlooked, while specialists get overrated; voters like that one area of dominance. Modern comp to, but just a bit behind, Craig Biggio, he could beat you in many ways. Longevity, defense and speed, more important in that era, rate him above Groh. Versatility is a plus; it should not be assumed that any typical thirdbaseman of the era could have successfully handled CF. Had a better peak than Bobby Wallace, but his career was a couple years shorter and he had just a little less defensive value. Among OFers with 750 games 1905-14, he is 2nd in PO/G (behind Speaker) and 2nd in FA (behind Clarke). Players with <u>1300 or more RBI plus Runs Scored, 1902-11:</u>
1—1883 H. Wagner
2—1726 S. Crawford
3—1429 T. Leach
4—1408 N. Lajoie
5—1392 H. Davis
6—1343 F. Clarke
<u>Leaders in Total Bases, 1901-10</u>:
1—2606 H. Wagner
2—2527 S. Crawford
3—2410 N. Lajoie
4—2128 H. Davis
5—2052 C. Seymour
6—1973 T. Leach
7—1933 F. Clarke
8—1911 J. Sheckard
9—1823 G. Beaumont
10—1783 B. Wallace

Not bad for a “glove”.

7) Burleigh Grimes – Comparable to E. Wynn. Has the heft I like in a career. Pitchers with <u>3800+ IP, 1916-75</u>. The top ten are all HoMers, nearly:

1—5244 W. Spahn
2—4689 R. Roberts
3—4564 E. Wynn
4—4344 R. Ruffing

5—4180 B. Grimes
6—4161 T. Lyons
7—3941 L. Grove
8—3897 E. Rixey
9—3884 B. Gibson
10—3827 B. Feller


8) Jimmy Ryan – Browning had one skill; Ryan could do it all. As a SNT he finished ahead of nine HoMers; the order in the teens was Duffy-Ryan-GVH. Usually trailing those guys were Caruthers-Pearce-Pike-Jennings-Griffith-Beckley-Childs-Browning-Jones. <u>Most extra-base hits, ten-year period 1876-1903</u>:
632 1893-02 E. Delahanty
550 1887-96 S. Thompson
549 1886-95 R. Connor
542 1883-92 D. Brouthers
525 1883-92 H. Stovey
487 1890-99 J. Beckley
481 1893-02 J. Kelley
458 1888-97 J. Ryan
453 1888-97 M. Tiernan
<u>Most outfielder Assists, 1876-1918</u>
1—375 J. Ryan
2—348 G. VanHaltren
3—348 Tom Brown
4—307 J. Sheckard
5—289 O. Shaffer
6—285 K. Kelly
7—283 S. Thompson

9) Rusty Staub – He’s the Grimes of position players. Ranks #36 all-time in Times On Base; #59 in Total Bases, just ahead of some guy named Jake. Edges Brock in win shares, blows him away in WARP3. Players with <u>OBP of .380+, 1967-76, 3500+ PA</u>:
1—.407 J. Morgan
2—.399 C. Yastrzemski
3—.397 W. McCovey
4—.394 P. Rose
5—.392 K. Singleton
6—.389 F. Robinson
7—.386 R. Carew
8—.386 R. Staub
9—.385 H. Killebrew
10—.381 D. Allen

10) Rabbit Maranville – Every career voter should have him on their radar. WARP1 is 133.2, even better than Beckley’s 117.8 (high of 8.3). That includes three years better than 10.0. Plus he’s due nearly a year of war credit, which adds another 8.0 WARP1. Career WARP3 is 103.0, just in HoMer country. Career win shares, with war credit and adjusted to 162 games, is 339, including 124 in his top five seasons.

11) Wally Schang – There’s not a dime’s worth of difference between him and Bresnahan, so he’s still on the radar. Players with <u>OBP of .390+, 1915-29, 5600+ PA</u>:
1—.475 B. Ruth
2—.439 T. Cobb
3—.436 R. Hornsby
4—.435 T. Speaker
5—.427 E. Collins
6—.412 H. Heilmann
7—.399 J. Sewell
8—.398 W. Schang
9—.393 K. Williams

12) Tommy John – Second time on ballot. At this late point in the project, players near the end of the ballot (9+) are outside the HoMer circle. Uber career length: in 1965 he was a top-3 starter for a contender; in 1988 he still was. In between, he steadily piled up value, 112.6 WARP3, 295 AWS.

13) Gavy Cravath –Yeah, he has problems, but they all do. Had a long career, was a regular player into his late 30’s. And he had a high peak. What more do you need? Circumstances beyond his control kept him out of MLB for many years.

14) Elston Howard – Third time on ballot. I’ve always been a friend of catchers. Had a long career, was a regular player into his late 30’s. And he had a high peak. What more do you need? Circumstances beyond his control kept him out of a regular MLB job for many years.

15) Dale Murphy – Second time on ballot. Multi-talented, durable player with a great peak and enough career value.

Top tenners off ballot:

R. Smith doesn’t have enough peak to make up for his career numbers.

Bucky Walters – Was on 1997 ballot. Think I might’ve had him a tad overrated, but he’s close.

Redding is a good candidate if you put total faith in the translations showing a stratospheric peak.

Bob Johnson falls off. I conclude that he would not have played regularly in 1943-45 without the war. This cancels out any minor league credit in my system.

Saberhagen falls in the peak-pitcher line somewhere back of Dean. Only five years with 30 games started.

McGraw played great, but too briefly.

Cone - nice prime. Being cautious with a newbie.
   112. Juan V Posted: November 12, 2007 at 04:56 PM (#2612170)
Guys, I'm afraid I'm gonna have to skip this one. My desktop computer where all my HOM stuff is stored caught a virus and is getting fixed. I hoped to get it back in time to vote, but that's not gonna happen...
   113. Kenn Posted: November 12, 2007 at 04:57 PM (#2612171)
I mostly look at career value over a fairly high replacement level, generous with credit for missed time and fielding. Think OPS+ & ERA+ times playing time, but with a ton of adjustments, and I have started keeping more peak-oriented and component part tallies alongside, which I use to bump players up and down on the final ballot. I went back in time and worked my PHOM out until about the 70s, which helps me decide which borderliners I really like best.

1. Cal Ripken
2. Tony Gwynn – The easy ones.

3. Mark McGwire – I’m not willing to single out individual players from McGwire’s era on the steroid question, so no boycott from me.

4. Reggie Smith - Looks extremely strong to me. A bit surprising, as poor in-season durability was not what I'd like, but it was still a fairly long career, with good defensive value as well.

5. Tommie Bridges - Love the solid run of years from 1932-1942. Throw in a little war credit and comes out as my favorite backlog pitcher.

6. Wally Schang - I see Schang as even more deserving this week, in comparison to other players from his time. Solid bat and glove over a long career.

7. Phil Rizzuto - I give him three years of war credit, at his average level two years before and after. With an excellent fielding rating, he keeps looking better.

8. David Cone – A big surprise to me. Much more consistent than I had recalled.

9. Bus Clarkson - I greatly appreciate the work done here on MLEs, though I find I have to discount them a bit or I get a stack of NLs at the top of the ballot. I'm convinced enough by the argument that Clarkson's era is underrepresented to discount him less than the rest (and even less this week than last) which places him here.

10. Dick Lundy – Like him a bit more than Monroe at this point, though I hope to revisit the NeL candidates this week. This ballot position results the recent MLEs alongside a very good fielding rating.

11. Bill Monroe - My favorite of the negro league candidates, based on the most recent MLE's posted here, though discounted as explained under Clarkson.

12. Ed Cicotte - I dropped pitchers from his era a bit (Joss no longer on ballot), but pitcher hitting has taken on a bigger factor than before, and he was good at it.

13. Don Newcombe - Even with credit for disruptions to his career (2 MiL, 2 War), the career is not especially long, only 13 years, but the years we have are all very strong except his first back from war. I think it is reasonable to see the entire stretch of that quality, which is the longest such streak among my borderline pitchers.

14. Dave Bancroft - Slick-fielding SS with a good bat over a fairly long career, with both those skills being especially valuable for the first half of that time.

15. Dave Concepcion - I'd never thought much of his HOF arguements before this project, but I do see long-time fielding as quite valuable, and his bat isn't as bad as I had thought.


16. Kirby Puckett – Looking around fielding stats in his time, I’ll buy into the view that Kirby was overrated, but not to the extent that some see. He drops a bit, and is almost indistinguishable from Murphy and Bonds
17. Dale Murphy – Almost identical value in my system to Puckett; if Puckett still belongs on my ballot, Murphy goes right there with him.
18. Bucky Walters – Steadily crept up onto ballot, just to be pushed off again. I find his peripherals really ugly, but the results are solid, and he helps himself a good deal with his bat.
19. Wilbur Cooper – Someone I’d overlooked earlier. Very consistent for a good stretch of time, Bridges or Newcombe light.
20. Bob Johnson – Solid, but never quite stands out for me.
21. Jimmy Ryan – The forgotten CF
22. Virgil Trucks
23. Craig Nettles
24. Bobby Bonds
25. Bret Saberhagen – Lower IP drop him relative to Cone, though still right at my PHOM borderline.
26. Gavvy Cravath – Like him, probably the last of my PHOM outfielders.
27. Elston Howard
28. Spotswood Poles
29. Ron Cey
30. Jim McCormick

Others:
Dick Redding and Luis Tiant: Both in the upper 30’s. Redding’s drop-off after his first few years hurts a lot, while I prefer Reuschel just slightly to Tiant, and pitchers from other eras more.
Tony Perez: Doesn’t grade out well with me at all. Outside the top 50. If he’d spent more time at 3B, maybe, but nothing special in my view at 1B even for so long.
John McGraw: Just didn't play enough to do well in my system, even if he was amazing when he did.
   114. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: November 12, 2007 at 05:01 PM (#2612175)
Juan V, you could just repost your '06 ballot with the three newbies at the top (or wherever you'd place them)...why not do that?

Kenn, I don't know who Craig Nettles is, but Graig Nettles got elected last year.

Nice ballot. :)
   115. DavidFoss Posted: November 12, 2007 at 05:21 PM (#2612191)
I haven't been keeping track, but I'm guessing this years inductees are not in doubt as the backlog jockeys in preparation for next year.

2007 Ballot

1. Cal Ripken -- Top peak SS seasons, long career. Easy pick.
2. Tony Gwynn -- So overrated he's now underrated. 132 OPS+ over 10k PA's. High SB% his entire career (more selective as he got slower, of course). Legitimately outstanding peak seasons in 1987,1994, 1997. Another easy pick.
3. Mark McGwire -- Monster peak seasons. Considerable career-length issues, but still another easy pick. Better than Greenberg who flew in with ease.
4. Gavvy Cravath -- Top-notch corner OF-er of the 1910s. With MLE credit, he is at least on par with guys like Kiner.
5. John McGraw -- Great high-OBP 3B of the 1890s.
6. Larry Doyle -- MVP deadball second baseman. Position player cornerstone of the 1911-13 Giants pennant dynasty. Hit like an OF-er.
7. Dick Redding -- Great fireballer of the 1910s. His weak 1920s NeL numbers should not take away from his fine early play. I don't know why his support hasn't held up.
8. Norm Cash -- I have him higher than I had Keith Hernandez. My favorite uninducted bat from the expansion era
9. Bob Elliott -- Excellent 3B of the 40s and early 1950s.
10. Mickey Welch -- Sure he was overrated, but we've been inducting guys like him from other eras.
11. Frank Chance -- Great hitter for great Cubs teams. Best non-Wagner hitter in the NL for several years.
12. Frank Howard -- This guy could really mash. 142 OPS+
13. Ernie Lombardi -- Catchers who hit this good are hard to find.
14. Al Rosen -- Hit like an inner circle guy for five seasons, but he came up late and then hurt his back.
15. Reggie Smith -- We've inducted the other CF's and CF/RF's that hit this well.
16-20. Puckett, BJohnson, Leach, Bando, Cepeda,
21-25. TJohn, Belle, Cey, Tiant, Saberhagen,
26-30. TPerez, Singleton, Brock, Staub, Walters,
31-35. DMurphy, Kaat, Parker
   116. OCF Posted: November 12, 2007 at 05:48 PM (#2612224)
Re Kenn's ballot: the ballot counters don't care who he listed 23rd. He doesn't have to fix it.
   117. Mike Webber Posted: November 12, 2007 at 05:49 PM (#2612227)
Mostly Win Shares, career over peak over prime.

1) Cal Ripken
2) Tony Gwynn
3) Mark McGwire
4) TOMMY LEACH – 328 Win Shares, only one MVP type season, 8 seasons 20+ Win Shares. Good peak, excellent defensive player at third and in centerfield.
5) PHIL RIZZUTO – 231 Win Shares, one MVP type seasons, 7 seasons 20+ Win Shares. With a conservative 60 or so win shares during the war, I move him ahead of Sewell. Same arguments as Nellie Fox, only with a 3-year hole in his career at ages 25 to 27, plus a bad return to MLB in 1946.
6) George Van Haltren Huge Career, plus short schedule. Even clipping his pitching credit.
7) KIRBY PUCKETT281 Win Shares, two MVP type seasons, 10 seasons 20+ Win Shares. In the murky centerfield ranking area with Duffy, Van Haltren, Carey, Pinson and well, I’l throw Amos Otis in here too as a Royals fan.
8) SAL BANDO - 283 Win Shares, two MVP type seasons, 9 seasons 20+ Win Shares. I believe he was better than Ken Boyer, but his home parks helped disguise it. The big seasons are what puts him ahead of Boyer.
9) TONY PEREZ 349 Win Shares, three MVP type seasons, 8 seasons 20+ Win Shares. Hits all my targets for a ballot candidate, long career, big seasons, a top 25 player at his position.
10) NORM CASH 315 Win Shares, only one MVP type season, 8 seasons 20+ Win Shares.
11) BRET SABERHAGEN 193 Win Shares, Royal bias on full display. Actually I think he just has the best argument for any pitcher right now.
12) ELSTON HOWARD 203 Win Shares, 1 MVP type season, 4 20 + Win Share seasons, basically he has Thurman Munson’s career despite only having 23 win shares before age 29.
13) KEN SINGLETON 302 win shares, 3 MVP type seasons, 7 20+ win share seasons. Big Seasons sneak him onto the bottom of my ballot.
14) LOU BROCK – 348 Win Shares, three MVP type seasons, 11 straight seasons 20+ Win Shares. As a career voter I’ll put him here. Batting leadoff he had great opportunity to rack up counting stats.
15) LUIS TIANT 256 Win Shares – poor timing of his big years.


Disclosures:

Bucky Walters – may be penalizing his WW2 pitching too much, or others are over penalizing Newhouser.

Reggie Smith – I don’t think his Japan numbers are worth any credit. MLB pinch-hitter when he went over.

Bob Johnson – in the glut of very good outfielders, Cravath, Reggie Smith, Roy White, Murcer, and Dawson.

Cannonball Dick Redding – obviously very good, but very hard to quantify.

John McGraw – have never cared for short career high peak guys.
   118. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: November 12, 2007 at 05:51 PM (#2612228)
2007 ballot

Post-1893 MLB position player evaluation is the same as in the past, based on my WARP system, whose methodology is elaborated with great detail in the thread devoted to it. The biggest discrepancies this causes with the group involve position scarcity (I think we grossly underrate shortstops) and era preference (I like guys from difficult-to-dominate years like the 1970s and 80s). I have recently been convinced that there is some value to in-season durability above and beyond total playing time, and my voting has adjusted slightly accordingly. I dock pre-integration players of both races for not competing against their counterparts of the other race (Babe Ruth would have had a lower OPS+ if he had played in the same league as Oscar Charleston, but Charleston would have had a lower MLE as well if he were being translated to an integrated major league, which would have been tougher than the real one). In spite of that, the new MLE's for Dick Lundy, which I have been asking for for months, show him as the black Bobby Wallace, which is enough to beat McGraw for the #1 backlogger spot on my ballot.

I finally have some preliminary numbers for pitchers, based on BP's DERA which I find to be an exceedingly useful and reliable stat, and my regression of the standard deviation of DERA for pitchers. (I'm hoping to have DRA-based fielding adjustments ready for next year's ballot). I am still having a terrible time with innings translation. I think Joe Dimino's pitcher numbers are extremely good and should get more traction in the group than they have, but I think they suffer from a few serious flaws, above all the fact that he adjusts for seasonal IP norms but not for career length. This leads pre-1920 pitchers to get absolutely creamed, because their innings get reduced to a liveball workload but they are not given credit for the extra seasons liveball pitchers accumulate. Joe's numbers show John Clarkson with less career value than such leading lights as Dutch Leonard, Bob Shawkey, and Dennis Martinez. As Bill James would say, and I'm a lug nut.

What I find is that there were two decades nearly devoid of Meritorious pitchers: the 1940s and the 1980s. Were these simple star droughts, or were there actual contextual factors making it harder for pitchers to string together big seasons? I don't yet have a conclusive answer to that question, but my gut sense, which I am going on for now, is that the 1940s was a star drought and the 1980s were actually hard for pitchers to dominate. Many of the same factors that gave the 1980s a low standard deviation for hitters also apply to pitchers; that shows up in the RA+ stdevs, might it also show up in their innings totals? I'm not sure, but it seems plausible. The presence of three 1980s pitchers on my ballot--including one that is sure to draw some gasps from the crowd--and the absence of Walters reflects this tentative assumption.

Without further ado:

1. Cal Ripken, Jr.
Among the top 20 MLB position players of the pitchers' mound era--although I'm surprised that everyone seems to be able to recognize Ripken as an inner-circle great, given that the group gives backlog shortstops such short shrift. The gap between Ripken and Campaneris/Concepción/Rizzuto is the same size as the gap between Frank Robinson and Willie Stargell. If Ripken roughly equals Robinson, and Stargell was elected easily, then those shortstops should be too. Standards are not being consistently applied.

2. Tony Gwynn
Fred Clarke seems like the comp to me. Above the HoM median.

3. Mark McGwire
Man could mash. Similar in value to Flick. #7 at his position since 1893 (Gehrig, Foxx, Mize, Greenberg, Bagwell, Thomas).

4. Dick Lundy
Finally, we have the numbers to match the rep. The Man Who Moved Pop Lloyd Off Shortstop probably wasn't as good as his canonized position in the Negro League pantheon would suggest, but as a sterling-gloved, long-career, above-average hitter, he looks like a dead ringer for Bobby Wallace. That's enough to outdistance the field here.

5. John McGraw
Sometimes it really is just as simple as a .500 OBP. Yes, it's a short career, and yes, he couldn't stay on the field. But he was an inner-circle Hall of Famer when he did play, with a skill set (super-high OBP and defense) that was ideally suited for his environment, in an era when 3B was much more demanding than it later became. WS and WARP probably miss on him more than any other player, due to the inflexibility of their run estimators, their failure to sufficiently adjust for changes in positional difficulty over time, and their absurdly low replacement levels over-rewarding mere "showing up." McGraw was a game-changing player the likes of which baseball has rarely seen since. No backlogger was half the player that McGraw was when he managed to get onto the diamond. See my WARP thread for a step-by-step explanation of why I have his 1899 as possibly the greatest 3B season ever (Schmidt was better in '81 but that was a strike year; I haven't calculated A-Rod's '07 yet).

6. Bret Saberhagen
Put up one MVP-type year (1989) and two more Cy Young-caliber ones (1985 and 87) in an era when that was not easy to do. I don't credit 1994 that much, since it was a strike year with a very high standard deviation, but still, his career DERA is *fifty points lower* than Walters's, despite not benefiting from the war. Another way to look at him is Dizzy Dean, plus a career's worth of above-average filler seasons. I'm sold.

7. Rick Reuschel
Yep, Joe is right about him. Superficially similar to Tiant--both threw 3,500 innings with a 114 ERA+--but Reuschel was hurt by his fielders while Tiant was helped by his, and while Tiant rode the wave of massive pitcher seasons around 1970, Reuschel pitched half of his career when the 300-IP season was a thing of the past. Plus he has that One Big Year (1977) I like to see. I'm starting out cautiously, but he could move higher.

8. Dagoberto Campaneris
The candidate most benefited by the new version of my WARP, as he now gets credit for his absolutely superlative non-SB baserunning for his pre-1972 years. Brock voters should really take a look at him--if you like speed, he seems to me to be clearly the best option. The usual spiel about low SS replacement level and low standard deviations in his era applies.

9. David Concepción
My pet candidate. To rehash: His 1973-82 are virtually identical to the best of Ozzie Smith, Ozzie just bests him on longevity (especially in the field). In an era where a banjo-hitting shortstop was worth his weight in gold, and where a 150 OPS+ was nearly good enough to lead the league, Concepción was a unique commodity and gave the Reds a massive head start over every other team in the league at the game's most critical position. Every player with more WARP2 over 10 straight years is in the Hall of Merit. Remember, you couldn't win a World Series between 1972 and 1976 without a Latin shortstop by the initials of D.C.

10. Reggie Smith
The more I think about how integration changed the game, the more I penalize pre-'47 ballplayers, which gets him ahead of the segregated backlog shortstops. I don't have him quite as high as I used to, since I'm starting to dock him for not staying in the lineup, and in particular have reduced the credit I'm giving him for his Japan year. But I do like the offense equal to inducted bats like Jimmy Wynn combined with Win Shares-approved defense, half a career in CF, and low-standard deviation era.

11. Phil Rizzuto
With proper war credit--and I've increased it upon finding out that his poor 1946 was due to a malaria infection--he actually comes out #2 or #3 among MLB position players on my ballot in terms of raw MLB value, thanks to his strong prime accompanying the huge MVP year and fistful of rings. But the gap between the actual and regression-projected standard deviation for his peak years makes me much more concerned about the strength of his leagues. An increased sensitivity to quality of competition, along with a desire for more positional balance on my ballot, drops him down a notch.

12. Johnny Pesky
The new Charlie Keller...or, if you prefer, Hughie Jennings. Had absolutely monster years immediately before and after the war, with superlative defense and best-at-position offense, and also played 1941 in the minors at a high major league All-Star level (I don't give him minor league credit for that year, but it does strengthen the case for the quality of his war credit). Then added just enough post-integration to get over the hump.

13. Don Newcombe
Needs every adjustment in the book--low stdev of RA+ in the 1950s, war credit, minor league credit, league strength credit, and hitting credit. But like Bill James said of Will Clark's 1989, all those little things can add up.

14. Dwight Gooden
Yes, I'm serious. This is basically a test of my faith in my salary estimator--is each marginal in-season win worth more than the last? I thought about it long and hard and believe that it is. Now, adjusted for era norms, I think Gooden's 1985 has a serious case as the greatest pitching season of all time. His ERA+ of 228 stands out like a sore thumb on the decade's leaderboards, where something in the 140s was good enough to finish first in many seasons. He led the league in innings. And he was a damn good hitter to boot. Basically, I think that if you have three seasons like that and nothing else, you're a HoM'er. Furthermore, I give him subjective credit for his rookie year as one of the greatest DIPS seasons ever; he did more by himself to prevent runs than almost any other pitcher in history that year, and just got victimized by the BABIP gods. His next four seasons were hardly sublime like the first two, but they had real value in the low-stdev 1980's--he was seventh in the league in ERA+ in 1986 and 1987. That, 1.5 more decent seasons in 1993 and 1998, and plenty of filler is enough for him to make my PHoM.

15. Dave Bancroft
I used to have him in the SS glut, but he took a hit with incorporation of CS data in my new WARP (15 SB/27 CS in 1915--ouch!) and an upward revision of his replacement level, which drops him to 14th.

Top 10 returnees and newbies:

Bob Johnson
His wartime demerits exceed his minor league credit, and he played in very easy to dominate leagues. Wouldn't be a terrible selection, but not an elite player of his era (since so many of them were in the Negro Leagues, his MLB stats look deceivingly shiny).

Dick Redding
The guy seems like a total question mark to me. Voting for him is just a shot in the dark.

Bucky Walters
An illusion produced by his fielders and the war.

Atanasio Pérez
A travesty. The quintessential hanger-on, he was little better than a league average first baseman from 1974 onwards, and his first two years were replacement level as well. He was only a meaningfully above-average ballplayer from '67 to '73, and only an All Star-caliber player in five of those years. Weak peak, short prime, career a mirage of hanging-on time.
   119. Jim Sp Posted: November 12, 2007 at 06:44 PM (#2612307)
1) Ripken--Not a fan of the streak, but still gotta put him #1.
2) McGwire--Easily qualified, personally I’m not interested in a boycott.
3) Gwynn--Again, easily qualified.
4) Saberhagen1985-1994 are enough for me with 1337 K/352BB= 3.8K/W for 1917 IP. Top BP W3: 11.7, 10.2, 10.2, 8.7. Even 1999 is remarkable, 81K and only 11BB in 119 IP. There’s no doubt he was great, 2562 IP is enough bulk for me.
5) Tommy JohnA good pitcher every year from 1965 to 1980 except the year out, with 1979 a very good peak year (8.4 BP W3). I figure by 1980 he was getting to into candidate territory, then went on to win 74 more games. 4710 IP is a lot, at ERA+ of 111.
6) John McGraw--Ultra-dominant player when healthy. Set the quality of league anywhere you want, and McGraw is starting and a star when healthy.
7) Rizzuto--The man lost his age 25, 26, and 27 seasons to the war, right after a very good season in 1942, and 1946 wasn’t a good one for him as well. One of the best fielding shortstops of all time. A 93 career OPS+ is strong for a grade A shortstop, not weak. Great peak season in 1950 (11.4 warp3). PHoM 1977.
8) Cone--1988-1998 he was 163- 87. Best year might have been 1991 when he went 14-14 but 241K to 73BB in 232 IP, with only 13 HR allowed.
9) Reggie Smith--I’m convinced now. Compare to Wynn. Add some Japan credit too.
10) Campaneris--great non-SB baserunning.
11) Concepcion--Grade A+ shortstop and could hit some too. Weak hitting at the beginning and end, but above average during prime 1973-1982. Warp3 prime: 10.7, 10.2, 10.2, 9.7, 8.8, 8.7, 8.3, 8.0. Note that Win Shares is conservative in assigning fielding credit to the great fielders. PHoM 1994.
12) GoodenFor a period of time, a serious candidate for the greatest pitcher ever. From August 11, 1984, to May 6, 1986: 37-5, 1.40 ERA, 412 Ks and 90 walks in 404.6 innings. 201-142 translated BP career record. 1984-1991 actual record was 132-53, K/W ratio 3:1 while striking out 8/9IP. 62-59 thereafter, like Saberhagen there is no doubt that he was a great pitcher, 2800 IP is enough bulk for me.
13) Reuschel--Joe D is on to something here, the bad defense behind him is not his fault.
14) Quinn--Joe D makes the case for him also, it’s not an accident that he was able to pitch in the majors to age 49. 114 ERA+ for almost 4000 IP, plus PCL credit, plus leverage credit…
15) NewcombeKorean War and integration issues, decided to give him the benefit of the doubt.

Walters—walked more than he struck out, I’m not convinced that the hitting and fielding provide enough runs to outweigh that to get him in the HoM.
Redding #31.
Bob Johnson</b>--#18. WinShares says C fielder, warp thinks he’s considerably better than that. Very high assist totals from LF. Played CF for a terrible 1938 A’s team, also a little bit of 2B and 3B. On the whole I think the record indicates that he was actually a good defensive player. I also suspect that his WinShares suffer from playing on some horrible teams. May have struggled trying to get a break, tough to grab playing time on the great A’s teams earlier in his career. Never did anything but mash despite late ML start at age 27. 1934-1942 is a HoM worth prime in my view. PHoM in 1970.
Perez--#28
   120. Brent Posted: November 12, 2007 at 07:12 PM (#2612358)
2007 Ballot:

For my penultimate (I love it when I get a chance to use that word:-) ballot, we have one of our strongest entering classes in a while. We have three great stars who leap over the backlog. Two guys who, at age 26, looked like they were locks for Cooperstown fall short. And I'm surprised by the pitcher who does make it onto my ballot.

First, a note on the statistics that I present in my comments. Like some other voters, I have a system that assigns points for each season. The system is peak/prime oriented—1 or 2 points for an “average” season, about 10 to 20 for an all-star season, maybe 25 or 30 for an MVP season. A spot on my ballot requires about 140 points. Since the seasons that are worth 5 or more points are the ones that matter in my system, for my ballot comments I’ve decided to summarize the performance of players during those seasons.

1. Cal Ripken, Jr. – Over 14 seasons (1982-92, 94-96) he averaged 161 games (adjusting to 162-gm schedule), with an OPS+ of 119; 2 Gold Glove awards at SS. (PHoM 2007)

2. Mark McGwire – Over 11 seasons (1987-90, 92, 95-00) he averaged 140 games (162-adj) with an OPS+ of 172. (2007)

3. Tony Gwynn – Over 9 seasons (1984, 86-89, 94-95, 97-98) he averaged 150 games (162-adj) with an OPS+ of 143 and 27 stolen bases with a 75% success rate. Fewer all-star-type seasons than I would have guessed, but they are backed up by many other seasons as an above average player. Won 5 Gold Glove awards, mostly in RF. (2007)

4. Kirby Puckett – Over 10 seasons (1985-92, 94-95) he averaged 156 games (162-adj), with an OPS+ of 128; 8 of those seasons were in center field, where he won 6 Gold Glove awards. (2002)

5. Ken Singleton – Over 8 seasons (1973, 75-81) he averaged 155 games (162-adj) with an OPS+ of 149. (1991)

6. Phil Rizzuto – Over 8 seasons (1941-42, 47, 49-53) he averaged 154 games (162-adj) with an OPS+ of 100 and 15 SB with a 73% success rate; an excellent defensive shortstop; military credit for age 25-27 seasons. (1967)

7. Hugh Duffy – Over 10 seasons (1890-99) he averaged 157 games (162-adj) with an OPS+ of 124; an excellent defensive outfielder; he also hit .489 with 16 RBIs in 11 post-season games. (1931)

8. Sal Bando – Over 10 seasons (1968-76, 78) he averaged 157 games (162-adj) with an OPS+ of 128. (1987)

9. Bobby Bonds – Over 10 seasons (1969-75, 77-79) he averaged 154 games (162-adj) with an OPS+ of 134 and 40 SB with a 74% success rate; 3 Gold Glove awards in right field. (1987)

10. David Cone – Over 10 seasons (1988, 90-95, 97-99) he averaged 15-9, 2.4 wins above team, 218 IP, 130 DERA+, 207 SO, 82 BB. His postseason record is 8-3, 3.80. I never thought of him as an HoF-type pitcher (and I’d be very surprised if he makes the 5% cut-off when he becomes eligible for the BBWAA election in 2009), but his record over 10 seasons is quite comparable to Dean’s 6-season record (which seems like about the right comparison to be making, considering the changes in pitcher usage), and I’ve long supported Dean.

11. Carlos Morán – Please check out the analysis on the Carlos Morán thread. (1998)

12. Elston Howard – Over 5 seasons (1958, 61-64) he averaged 132 games (118 as catcher) (162-adj) with an OPS+ of 132; an excellent defensive catcher; credit for several minor league and military seasons (especially 1954). (1977)

13. Bucky Walters – Over 7 seasons (1936, 39-42, 44-45) he averaged 18-13, 2.0 wins above team, 270 IP, 123 DERA+, 72 OPS+. MVP for 1939. (1958)

14. Dizzy Dean – Over 6 seasons (1932-37) he averaged 22-13, 3.6 wins above team, 288 IP, 129 DERA+, 182 SO, 67 BB. (1958)

15. Albert Belle – Over 6 seasons (1993-96, 98-99) he averaged 159 games (162-adj) with an OPS+ of 162 and 13 SB with a 72% success rate. In view of Kiner’s election, I was surprised at how little support Belle has drawn. (2006)

Near misses:

16–20. Welch (1966), Redding (1976), Cravath (1976), Monroe (2004), Pesky (2005)
21–25. Pérez (1994), Long (2006), Grimes (1940), Saberhagen (2005), Leach (1932)
26-30. Mattingly, Van Haltren (1997), Castillo, Lundy, Parker

Other consensus top 10:

Reggie Smith - # 34. In-season durability issues keep him off my ballot.

Dick Redding - # 17.

Bob Johnson – WWII years need to be discounted. There are several better outfield candidates available.

Bret Saberhagen - # 24. Didn’t fare well in the comparison with Cone.

John McGraw - # 45. See Reggie Smith comment.

Tony Pérez - # 21. A solid prime from 1967-75 isn’t quite enough to make my ballot this time.

Other new arrivals:

Tony Fernandez - # 31. A first look at his 2000 season in Japan suggests that it was comparable to his previous two seasons in Toronto. Not enough of a boost to make my ballot, but could be a candidate for my PHoM.

Jose Canseco – A lesson never to let your star outfielder pitch a few innings. Didn’t make my top 100.
   121. Juan V Posted: November 12, 2007 at 09:16 PM (#2612513)
So, I just remembered that I posted a prelim. Based on that, my ballot from last year and some memory work, I'm able to post a ballot after all. So, here it goes.

1-CAL RIPKEN: Best new candidate since Joe Morgan. Second-best retired MLB shortstop of all-time, although A-Rod might be closing in on him.

2-TONY GWYNN: Overrated IMO, but still a clear HOMer. Pretty close to my PHOM median, according to memory.

3-MARK MCGWIRE: On a virtual tie with Gwynn. Tremendous peak.

4-LUIS TIANT: The 114 ERA+ over a little less than 3500 innings is unimpressive, specially considering his contemporaries, but he really shined with unearned runs (roughly 8.5% of total runs allowed, compared to about 11.5% for his era).

5-GAVVY CRAVATH: Clearly better than the borderline, Clarke and Flick seem to be good value comparables (maybe Winfield as well). With MLE credit, his peak is on the Kiner/Keller class, with the career that those two lack. So what if he took special advantage of his home park? He did it better than most, and his teams got value out of that.

6-BUS CLARKSON: New MLEs incorporated. Glad to see the debate on him re-sparked, as we may be missing a gem here. In any case, he has well over 300 MLEed Win Shares, and an OPS+ around 120 from a SS/3B. The better part of his career, including his SS peak, took place before the Negro League scene got outta whack (although he was still well traveled). He was one of the reasons I decided to establish my new offense system, and under it he truly shines. I am discounting his 1940 a bit.

7-VIC WILLIS: Almost 4000 innings at a 118 ERA+ put him pretty close to the average Hall of Fame starter (probably the average Hall of Meriter is a bit better). Seeing how this is squeezed into relatively few seasons, the result is a HOMable peak. Unearned runs are about average for his era, so they don't change his standing too much.

8-BRET SABERHAGEN: I have agonized on whether a starter can make a HOM case on barely over 2500 IP, but Sabes has a lot of positives. His low career totals are a function of injuries, not low use (for his era, at least), and his seasonal highs in IP and ERA+ seem to converge, giving him an excellent peak. Having 8% unearned runs doesn't hurt, either.

9-DAVID CONE: Saberhagen v2.0. With a little less peak.

10-ALBERT BELLE: Belle=Kiner? Sounds reasonable, and I liked Kiner back then. I think Belle was a wee little bit better.

11-DAVID CONCEPCION: Averagish-bat, All-Time defense, and a really low baseline to compare him against. Clearly, my favorite among all the middle infielders with a similar profile. I believe there is a "real" reason why shortstops of his time were so bad with the bat, giving him real value.

12-DICK LUNDY: The newer MLEs make him look like a longer, flatter Concepción, so it's no surprise to see them together.

13-TONY LAZZERI: My old teddy bear (although, given my relatively short time voting, does it qualify him as "old"?). Where's the support for a 120 OPS+ second baseman? Was the defense really that bad (and why it doesn't show up on the uberstats, which put him clearly north of Larry Doyle territory)? Is my estimation of the baseline for 1930s second basemen that far off?

14-FRED DUNLAP: Another "unearthed" candidate. Even with an UA discount, that 1884 season was monstrous.

15-BEN TAYLOR: With Will Clark elected, I hope he will get a little more attention, if even by comparison. Seems to have had similar value as a hitter, but with 1B being what it was in his era, he ranks higher.

The strong newbie class pushes three PHOMers and top-tenners off my ballot: Reggie Smith, Tony Perez and Bob Johnson. They are 16th, 17th and 20th, respectively. A higher peak for Johnson or Perez, or better durability for Smith, would have made a difference in this ballot.

John McGraw is pretty close to my PHoM. There's no doubt he played at a HOMable level, but he just didn't play enough for my liking.

Bucky Walters has too many negatives in my opinion. The war, the unearned runs, the quality of the defenses behind him....

Tony Fernandez is a distinguished member of the Hall of Very Good. Harold Baines isn't even that.
   122. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: November 12, 2007 at 09:30 PM (#2612541)
Lazzeri was indubitably excellent from '27 to '34, but he has next to nothing outside those years, and the peak/short prime just isn't high enough to compensate for the lack of career, Keller-style.
   123. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: November 12, 2007 at 09:52 PM (#2612580)
Rusty Priske, OCF, Daryn, rico vanian, AJM--please post why you have declined to jump on the bandwagon of Top Ten Returnee John McGraw! :)
   124. Ken Fischer Posted: November 12, 2007 at 10:20 PM (#2612619)
2007 Ballot


1-Cal Ripken 427 WS
No-Brainer…model for the modern power shortstop.

2-Tony Gwynn 398 WS
Another…no brainer…a hitting machine.

3-Mark McGwire 342 WS
I cut him some slack.

4-Dick Redding
He is ranked by many as one of the top pitchers of the pre-Negro League days.

5-George Van Haltren 344 WS
His numbers deserve the high ranking. I know…I’m a Van diehard…GVH and Stephens. I just can’t drop them down. They belong.

6-Mickey Welch 354 WS
300+ wins are great in any era.

7-Carl Mays 256 WS
256 win shares in an offense dominated era is impressive.

8-Vern Stephens 265 WS
His comps are Doerr & Lazzeri but I believe he was better. A forerunner of the modern power hitting shortstop.

9-Wally Schang 245 WS
He played for several flag winners. Schang had great plate discipline. At the age of 39 he led the AL in HBP.

10-Bob Johnson 287 WS
A raw deal…Indian Bob will forever be hurt by playing for mostly bad teams and the overlapping eras he played in (Live Ball & War Years).

11-Tony Mullane 399 WS
Gray Ink 198. Late in his career won 25 games after the mound was moved. Too bad he was at the end.

12-Tony Perez 349 WS
A career pick for the volume of his work.

13-Luis Tiant 256 WS
Luis is a Cuban product of a later era. Comps include HOMers Bunning & Drysdale.

14-Lou Brock 348 WS
Great post season stats. SB given more value in his time.

15-Jim McCormick 334 WS
More Win Shares than Clark! Accomplished a lot in a short period of time. Maybe a poor man’s Bob Caruthers .

I rank Rice and Parker ahead of Puckett. I’m mainly a career voter and his short career doesn’t do as well in my evaluation. Walters is even farther down on my list for similar reasons. Reggie Smith isn’t in my top 50. I’m still not sure about him. Saberhagen and McGraw are way down on my depth chart. Maybe they deserve another look.
   125. Mike Green Posted: November 12, 2007 at 10:27 PM (#2612635)
"I’m a Van diehard"

He hasn't done much since Wavelength at the latest, but his peak was right up there.
   126. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: November 12, 2007 at 10:42 PM (#2612664)
Did anyone boycott Mullane way back when for refusing to pitch to a black catcher?
   127. Patrick W Posted: November 12, 2007 at 10:43 PM (#2612666)
I took a look at the Hall vs. P-Hall after last year’s election for the first time in probably a year and a half. By my totals, I have about 6 more pitchers in my HOM, at the expense of 2 catchers and 4 infielders. After 228 selections, I was fairly impressed with how close the percentages actually were between the two. If you guys could elect Saberhagen and Walters in 2008, that’d really help even up the count; I’ll see if I can’t elect Buddy Bell and Tony Fernandez on my end. Thanks in advance.

1. Cal Ripken Jr. (n/a), Balt. (A) SS / 3B (’81-’01) (2007) – Amongst the top 100 players, ranks 2nd behind Ozzie for most FRAR3 (91 runs back). He’s 150 runs ahead of 3rd place. The Wagner comparison is about the only one you can make, as Cal ranks fairly decisively ahead of Wells, Lloyd and Banks.
2. Tony Gwynn (n/a), S.D. (N), RF (’82-’01) (2007) – Slots nicely right next to Rod Carew. Professional hitter.
3. Frank Tanana (1), Cal. – Detr. (A) SP (’73-’93) (2000) – Sandy Koufax peak (49.7 bonus WARP for Sandy’s peak vs. 46.9 for Frank), plus played for 10 additional years of average / below avg. Here is either the player that breaks my system or a vastly underrated pitcher by the rest of you. Only player in my top 100 who is not HOM (or going to be in ’04).
4. Mark McGwire (n/a), Oak. - St.L. (N), 1B (’86-’01) (2007) – McGwire makes the top 50 percent of HOMers with about as short a career as is possible to have in my system while still achieving that height. I only show Dihigo having fewer AB’s while making the top 50%.
5. Tony Perez (3), Cinc. (N), 1B / 3B (’65-’86) (1994) – Completely different BA/OB/SG breakdown, but the sum of his offensive and defensive value to a team makes him look like a twin of Willie Keeler to me.
6. Luis Tiant (4), Bost. – Clev. (A) SP (’64-’80) (1988) – Right there with Drysdale, Ford and Marichal. Not a slam dunk, but the ballot’s not strong enough to hold him down.
7. Lee Smith (5), Chic. – St.L. (N) RP (’81-’97) (2003) – Goose had enough peak to start Lee as the 3rd best reliever.
8. Tommy John (6), Chic.– N.Y. (A) SP (’63-’89) (1997) – If you can maintain average for a quarter century, that’s just a different definition of greatness.
9. David Cone (n/a), N.Y. (N) – N.Y. (A) SP (’87-’01) –
10. Jim Kaat (7), Minn. (A) SP (’61-’83) (1991) – Kaat would probably be in the Hall today if his ’62-’66-’74-’75 had instead occurred consecutively. His best seasons don’t seem to coincide with Minnesota’s best as a team in the ‘60s either. Value is value in my system, and this is where he deserves to rank.
11. Rusty Staub (8), Hou. – N.Y. (N), RF (’63-’81) (1996) – In my system, I have to take 9400 AB’s of 0.295 EQA over 6400 AB’s at 0.301. Wynn has the bigger peak, but Staub has 5 more seasons to his career.
12. Rick Reuschel (9), Chic. – S.F. (N) SP (’72-’90) (1996) – On the other hand, if Reuschel is going in first ballot, then it probably is a weak ballot. Nearly equals the value of Kaat in 700 fewer innings.
13. Jack Morris (10), Detr. (A) SP (’78-’94) (2001) – I like my system of discounting the pitchers for their “effort” at the bat, but Morris points out how I need to somehow discount the AL pitchers in the DH era. Morris is nearly equal to Reuschel in my system because of Rick’s lack of prowess at the plate. By eyeball, Jack might drop 2-3 spots because of this issue; he’s still ballot-worthy until I resolve the discrepancy.
14. Charlie Hough (13), L.A. (N) – Tex. (A) SP (’70-’94) (2004) – Charlie, Dutch. Dutch, Charlie.
15. Bret Saberhagen (14), K.C. (A) SP (’84-’99) (2005) – Just below Hough, just above Leonard (who drops as a result).

Reggie Smith – My P-Hall picks look good compared to Reggie Smith making the actual HOM.
Bucky Walters (1961) – He’s just as good as Leonard, Trout, Koosman and Lolich.
Dick Redding – The bar for NeL pitchers has been set higher than this, IMO. The jump from Ray Brown to Bill Foster, Mendez and Redding will keep them all out of my Hall.
Bob Johnson (1985) – It’s rather sad when I have to explain why players in the P-Hall aren’t on the ballot. Would you elect some of the pitchers above already?
John McGraw – Only 9 seasons worth mentioning, only 7 that truly help his cause for the HOM, and his calling card peak is now only barely HOM-worthy. The injuries keep him out of consideration.

Two players were in last year’s top ten, AND in my top 15 this year!
   128. Mark Donelson Posted: November 12, 2007 at 10:47 PM (#2612675)
I’m a Van diehard…GVH and Stephens.

Is Van Stephens related to Craig Nettles? (Or maybe it's just a Boston pronounciation?)
   129. jimd Posted: November 12, 2007 at 10:59 PM (#2612691)
To the ballot-counters: This is the same 1-20 that was posted on the Discussion thread. Discounting his 1997 Win Shares did not affect my rating of Gwynn enough to justify placing Walters ahead of him. Fernandez and Cone were interesting but fell short, landing in the 20's and 40's, respectively. Shuffled 20-50 around a bit, but that's irrelevant.

****

Ballot for 2007

Read previous ballots if you want more depth on my reasons for all but the latest eligibles.

I am a peak/prime/career voter. Prime tends to dominate the ballot as Career has had an easier time of it in HOM elections, and short Peaks don't get too far in my system. Important parts of my peak and prime assessment are both the quantity and quality of a player's "All-Star" selections. These are the seasons where the player is able to make a positive contribution to a typical "playoff contender" (top 25% of participating teams). I use both WARP and Win Shares, though I emphasize the former because of its demonstrated overall yearly positional balance throughout baseball history.

I am reexamining my ballot carefully annually as we go deep into the backlog.

1) C. RIPKEN -- !! Prime 1982-96. Best player in 1983, WARP adds 1984 and 1991, candidate in 1984 and 1991 by WS. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SS) in 1982, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1989, 1991; WARP adds 1988. Other star seasons include 1982, 1987, 1990, 1992, 1994, 1995, 1996.

2) T. GWYNN -- More inconsistent prime than I remembered, moving above and below the WARP All-star line. Could lose the #2 slot. Also his huge 1997 WS season appears to be a park-effect overadjustment. Usually the two systems do not have anywhere near such a large difference of opinion: 39 WS vs 7.4 WARP1. Prime 1984-97. Best player by WS in 1997. 1st-team MLB All-Star (RF) in 1984 and 1989; WS adds 1986 and 1997; WARP adds 1987 and 1989. Other star seasons include 1988, 1991, 1994, 1995. Honorable mention in 1985, 1992, 1993, 1998, 1999.

3) B. WALTERS -- Best of the backlog. Prime 1939-44. Best player in 1939; candidate in 1940 by WS. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1939, 1941, 1944; WS adds 1940. Other star seasons include 1936 and 1942.

4) B. SABERHAGEN -- Made my PHOM in 2005. High peak candidate, with a career too. Prime 1985-94. Best player candidate in 1989 by WARP. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1985, 1987, 1989; WS adds 1994. Other star seasons include 1988. Honorable mention in 1991.

5) M. MCGWIRE -- Definitely HOM-worthy; playing time issues prevent full leveraging of his batting rates into All-Star appearances. 1st team appearances is also low but that position is stacked during this era. Prime 1987-2000. Best player candidate in 1998 by WS. 1st-team MLB All-Star (1B) in 1998. Other star seasons include 1987, 1988, 1989, 1990, 1992, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1999. HM in 1991 and 2000.

6) K. PUCKETT -- Made my PHOM in 2003. Prime 1985-1995. Best player candidate in 1988 and 1992 by WARP. 1st-team MLB All-Star (CF) in 1986 and 1988 by WS; 1992 by WARP. Other star seasons include 1987, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1994. HM in 1985, 1993, and 1995.

7) F. TANANA -- Made my PHOM in 2004. More good seasons than Gossage. Poster-child for pitcher abuse. Still has the peak and also has the career. Prime 1974-77. Best player candidate in 1976 and 1977 by WARP. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1976; WARP adds 1975, 1977. Other star seasons include 1974, 1984. Honorable mention in 1987.

8) K. SINGLETON -- Better peak than Bonds; not quite as much prime as Wynn. Prime 1973-81. Best player candidate 1977, WS adds 1979. 1st-team MLB All-Star (RF) in 1975 and 1977. Other star seasons include 1973, 1978, 1979, 1980, 1981; also 1976 in LF.

9) L. TIANT -- Nice blend of peak, prime, and career. Win Shares does not like him. Tended to alternate good years (even) and off years (odd). Prime 1966-1978. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1968, 1974; WS adds 1976. Other star seasons include 1972 and 1973. Honorable Mention in 1966 and 1978.

10) D. CONCEPCION -- His best 7 seasons are very close to Ozzie's best 7, though Ozzie is clearly superior in peak, shoulder seasons, and career value. Prime 1974-82. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SS) in 1974; WARP adds 1976 and 1979; WS adds 1978 and 1981. Other star seasons include 1982. HM in 1975 and 1977.

11) J. KAAT -- Belongs. 14 HOM "bats" were born 1893-1903 (Sisler, Heilmann, Ruth, Torriente, Charleston, Terry, Goslin, Suttles, Stearnes, Averill, Simmons, Waner, Bell, Gehrig); don't tell me that 10 pitchers born 1938-48 are too many.Prime 1961-1975. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1962; WS adds 1966. Other star seasons include 1974 and 1975. HM in 1961, 1964, 1967, 1971.

12) F. JONES -- Still an all-star player when he walked away. I still think he rates ahead of Ashburn, but it's close. Prime 1900-08. 1st-team MLB All-Star (CF) in 1908; WARP adds 1902 and 1907. Other star seasons include 1900, 1901, 1903, 1904, 1905, 1906.

13) F. DUNLAP -- Great two-way player; bypassed for some reason. Amibidextrous, too. Reportedly could catch and throw equally well with either hand. Useful in this era before modern fielding gloves forced a player to choose one hand for each. Prime 1880-86. Best Player candidate 1880-81 (WARP). 1st-team MLB All-Star (2B) in 1880, 1881; WARP adds 1882, 1883, and 1885. 1884 in the UA is hard to evaluate but may also be #1. Other star seasons include 1886.

14) D. DEAN -- High peak candidate. Prime 1932-36. Candidate for best player in MLB baseball, 1934. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) 1934, 1935, 1936; WARP adds 1932. Other star seasons include 1933.

15) B. BONDS -- Very nice prime; marginal on career. Those who go to extreme either way will miss him. Prime 1969-77. Best player candidate 1970 by WS. 1st-team MLB All-Star (RF) in 1970; WARP adds 1971 and 1973. Other star seasons include 1969, 1972, 1974, 1975, 1977, 1978. HM in 1979.

16) P. TRAYNOR -- Back after another reevaluation. Prime 1923-33. 1st-team MLB All-Star (3B) in 1923, 1925, 1927, 1931; WS adds 1929, 1932, 1933. Other star seasons include 1926. HM in 1928 and 1930.

17) R. CEY -- Important component of the late 70's Dodgers. Prime 1973-1981. 1st-team MLB All-Star (3B) in 1978 by WARP. Other star seasons include 1974, 1975, 1976, 1979, 1980, and 1981. HM in 1973 and 1977.

18) B. MAZEROSKI -- Prime 1957-66. 1st-team MLB All-Star (2B) 1960 and 1964; WARP adds 1958. Other star seasons include 1962, 1963, 1966. HM in 1957, 1961, 1965.

19) D. BANCROFT -- Boost due to DanR's replacement level work. Prime 1916-22. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SS) 1920 and 1921; WS adds 1922. Other star seasons include 1916, 1917, 1918, 1925, 1926.

20) T. PEREZ -- Better 3B than expected. Important component of the Reds prior to the arrival of Joe Morgan. Prime 1967-1975. Best player candidate 1970 by Win Shares. 1st-team MLB All-Star (3B) in 1970; WS adds 1973 at 1B. Other star seasons include 1967, 1968, 1969, 1971 (3B), and 1972 at 1B. HM in 1974, 1975, 1977 (1B).

Just missing the cut are:
21-23) Don Mattingly, Frank Viola, Dick Redding,
24-26) Norm Cash, Tony Fernandez, Rabbit Maranville,
27-29) Jim Whitney, Elston Howard, Jim McCormick,
30-32) Mark Langston, Lance Parrish, Ron Guidry,
33-35) Albert Belle, George Foster, Bobby Veach,
36-38) Dizzy Trout, George Burns, Brett Butler,
39-41) Thurman Munson, Bob Johnson, Tommy Bond,
42-44) Vic Willis, David Cone, Urban Shocker,
45-47) Dale Murphy, Silver King, Herman Long,
48-50) Denny Lyons, Ned Williamson, Hugh Duffy,
   130. jimd Posted: November 12, 2007 at 11:04 PM (#2612696)
BTW, Reggie Smith and John McGraw suffer from similar problems as McGwire does in my system, to wit, playing time issues prevent full leveraging of their batting rates into the All-Star appearances which are important in my system. They need more playing time in some key seasons (particularly Smith, whose long seasons were at lower rates).
   131. sunnyday2 Posted: November 12, 2007 at 11:30 PM (#2612713)
>I’m a Van diehard"

>>He hasn't done much since Wavelength at the latest, but his peak was right up there.

Disagree. Enlightenment is terrific and 2 Nights in San Fran is his quintessential live recording. He is coming to town and I've never seen him live but $211 is just a little too much.
   132. DL from MN Posted: November 13, 2007 at 12:05 AM (#2612753)
$211 for one ticket?! Built to Spill were great and they were only $14.
   133. Juan V Posted: November 13, 2007 at 12:15 AM (#2612755)
Lazzeri was indubitably excellent from '27 to '34, but he has next to nothing outside those years, and the peak/short prime just isn't high enough to compensate for the lack of career, Keller-style.


Well, my system really, really likes those years.
   134. OCF Posted: November 13, 2007 at 12:28 AM (#2612759)
Dan, what is the point of your post #123? As I understand it, the rule about top-10 comments was intended to assure that no voter overlooks a serious candidate. There's no way that anyone has ever overlooked McGraw. His case has been well-understood from the beginning: fabulous rate statistics, and less playing time than any other (position player) serious candidate since the 130-game season became common. Very little has been added to that picture in 80 or 90 elections - he is what we've always known him to be. The electorate does not speak with one mind, especially about the importance attached to career value, and that shows in the polarization over McGraw. You have to assume that anyone with any career leanings at all is unlikely to support McGraw; you have to assume that anyone asked for reasons for not supporting McGraw will cite playing time issues. Backlog attrition brought him to the edge of the top 10 last week, but he was only 16th in the number of ballots he appeared on; this week he'll probably fall out of the top 10 because he's not getting 1-2-3 votes. The point totals in that range are highly compressed. Each new voter added to a tally scrambles it around some more.
   135. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: November 13, 2007 at 12:29 AM (#2612760)
My ballot:

Since some people asked us to include what we consider . . . I try to look at it all. I'm a career voter mostly - not because I have any bias towards it, but just because the numbers (and every study I've ever seen) tell me that peaks are overrated and 5+5 is only about 10-15% less valuable than 10+0.

I give full war credit, and I think it's a major mistake not to when comparing players across eras. My biggest regret on this project is that we didn't require all voters to give war credit like we did with Negro League credit. I see no difference, both were a circumstance of the player's birthday that was beyond his control. I also follow similar philosophy on strikes. I think it's a cop out to say we don't know so it's a zero. If a guy was a 25 WS a year player before and after the war, a zero is a much bigger mistake than giving him three 25s. As far as injury you just credit a guy based on his playing time before and after the war. There's no reason to assume he would have been any more (or less) injury prone during those years.

I'll give minor league credit for players trapped - once they've had a 'here I am, let me play!' season.

Of late I've been much more hands on in rating the pitchers than the position players. I'm very confident in my pitcher rankings. My position player rankings I'm less confident in, but there are only so many hours in the day, and because of that you'll see more position players moving around from week to week than pitchers.

1. Cal Ripken SS (n/e) - There's a fair case for him as the #2 SS of all-time in career value, #3 (behind Wagner and Vaughn) in peak value.

2. Tony Gwynn RF (n/e) - What a hitter. And he could fly when he was young too. Who'dve thought that fat guy stole over 50 bases once. There's quite a peak here too as well.

3. Mark McGwire 1B (n/e) - Very nice peak, and well, the career value shows almost 600 HR. He had a pretty nice run.

4. Dick Lundy SS (--) - I'm now convinced he belongs. I think of him as similar to a guy like Pee Wee Reese or Boudreau with a longer career, in terms of value.

5. Rick Reuschel SP (1) - This ranking surprises me a great deal. It's one thing to 'discover' an Ezra Sutton (I mean as a group, not that I discovered him first or anything) who played 130 years ago. But Rick Reuschel was there, right before my very eyes. He pitched in the World Series for my favorite team when I was turning 9 years old. And I never had a clue he was this good.

My Pennants Added system, which accounts for fielding support, parks, bullpen support, etc.; shows him right behind Dazzy Vance, Ed Walsh and Amos Rusie, and ahead of Jim Bunning, Sandy Koufax and Juan Marichal.

He isn't peakless either. His top 4 years are similar to that of Ron Guidry or Mike Scott - both considered 'peak' candidates. His 1977 was every bit as valuable as Bunning's 1966. Bunning definitely has him beat in years 2-5, but Reuschel makes it up with more quality in the back end. I get them essentially equal, Reuschel was a little better inning for inning, Bunning had a higher peak, but in the end they even out.

I have Reuschel with a 115 DRA+ over 3745 tIP, Bunning was 113 over 3739 tIP. This is where I would have ranked Bunning, who sailed into the Hall of Merit, I have no issue putting Reuschel here.

Even when I take my numbers, but filter them through a Bill James-type NHBA scoring system (that heavily focuses on peak), Reuschel still comes out in a group with guys like Jim Palmer, Noodles Hahn, Eddie Rommel, Tex Hughson, Clark Griffith and Whitey Ford. Hahn, Rommel and Hughson all had very nice peaks.

Using a JAWS scoring system, he comes out in a group with Wes Ferrell, Jack Quinn, Palmer, Stan Coveleski, Red Faber and Urban Shocker.

I am saying that Reuschel was every bit as good as the Jims, Palmer and Bunning. The only difference between Palmer and Reuschel is park and defense. Reuschel's 1977 was better than any season Palmer had. Palmer, like Bunning was better than Reuschel in the 2-5 best seasons, but by less than a win a year, and over the course of their careers, Reuschel was better, 115 DRA+ to Palmer's 113 (in a similar number of innings, Palmer had 3781 tIP. He had the one great year, and was very good from 1973-81 and 1985, 1987-89. That's a record that not a lot of pitchers can match.

6. Jack Quinn SP (2) - I'm giving him credit for 1916-18 where he was pitching (quite well) in the PCL after the Federal League went belly-up. He gets a big leverage bonus for his nearly 800 IP of relief work at a LI of 1.26. Without any PCL credit I still have him between Bridges and Grimes.

7. Phil Rizzuto SS (3) - Lost 3 prime years to WWII. I've quantified that better and he moves up further. Great defense, and a huge year in 1950 also. He looks even better than I realized with Dan's system and I'm moving him up accordingly. His death has nothing to do with this, other than that I looked him over again, and I liked what I saw. RIP Scooter.

8. Tommy John SP (5) - Tons of career value. I would probably be sick to my stomach if Jim Kaat (who did very well in the Veteran's Committee balloting this year) got in and John did not. On the surface (career W-L) they appear similar, but when you adjust for everything, they aren't close. I have John as similar to, but better than Burleigh Grimes - about 800 more translated IP, at a 106 rate instead of a 104 rate. That's more than enough to offset Grimes peak edge. I get John somewhere between Eppa Rixey/Red Faber and Grimes on the continuum. He's over the in/out line for me. I also give no extra credit for his poineering the surgery - someone had to be first.

9. Bert Campaneris SS (6) - Moves up this week with my retooling. .470 OWP, in an era where the average SS was at .372. Long (9625 PA) career as well, and a good fielder (62 FRAA). System says to rank him ahead of Concepcion pretty clearly.

10. Bret Saberhagen SP (8) - Great peak, others with similar years 1-4 are Phil Niekro, Don Drysdale and Joe McGinnity. Saberhagen tracks McGinnity for years 5-7 as well, though he can't keep pace with Niekro and Drysdale after year 4. I'm on record as saying McGinnity was a mistake, but Saberhagen has a lot better filler (128 career DRA+ vs. 115 in a similar number of translated IP), and he's definitely a better choice than McGinnity.

11. Urban Shocker SP (9) - Vaulted in 1981, with 1918 war credit (he was having a great year), and an adjustment for the AL being much better than the NL during his time. He was a great pitcher, peak guys should really look closer at him. He'd be a no brainer without his illness, which should not impact a peak vote.

12. Dave Concepcion SS (10) - Better than I realized, and was really hurt by the 1981 strike, which occurred during his best season (and a season where the Reds had the best record in baseball, but missed the playoffs). Still no Trammell or Ozzie, but a very good player indeed. We could do worse than induct him.

13. Tommy Bridges SP (11) - Unspectacular peak (although he would have won the 1936 AL Cy Young Award if it had been invented), but a lot of career value. War credit helps nudge him above Trout and Leonard. He could obviously still pitch when he left for the war, and was still good when he returned for a short time. I give him 2 years of credit at his 1941-43 level.

14. Tommy Leach 3B/CF (12) - I was a big fan of his awhile back, then he faded. He's back now, in no small part because of Dan R's work.

15. Gavy Cravath RF (13) - Either he was a freak of nature, or there's a lot missing. I vote for the latter. Check out his thread for deeper discussion of the specifics, including a great analysis from Gadfly. He's the kind of guy we were hoping to catch when we started this project.


Mandatory comments:

Reggie Smith - Temporarily off the ballot at #16 due to the newcomers. Crept onto the ballot last week. While the seasonal durability is low, there's still a lot of value when he was on the field.

Bucky Walters - Big years, good hitter for a pitcher, career kind of short though. Basically tied with Newcombe.

Dick Redding - he was good, but I think we are overrating him. I can't see how he's better than Grimes.

Bob Johnson - He's in the mix - but slides down when you deflate his numbers from WWII. I've got him just below Smith without any deflation.

John McGraw - Close to the ballot, but there just isn't enough there for me to get him on. He just didn't play enough. Even after converting him to 162 game seasons, he ends up with just 4333 AB, and 3 seasons w/more than 125 games and 7 total seasons over 100 games. Reggie Smith, by comparison has 7172 PA and 10 seasons over 125 games.

Tony Perez - I'll never be convinced that he was better than Ben Taylor, who I currently have at #17.


Close to the ballot:

Position Players - Reggie Smith, Ben Taylor, Dave Bancroft, Buddy Bell, Toby Harrah, Bob Johnson, Brett Butler, Norm Cash, Thurman Munson, John McGraw, Bobby Bonds.

Pitchers - Don Newcombe, Burleigh Grimes, Bucky Walters, Luis Tiant, Virgil Trucks, Orel Hershiser, Dwight Gooden, Dennis Martinez, Lee Smith.
   136. SWW Posted: November 13, 2007 at 12:55 AM (#2612771)
We’re on the homestretch. And an easy top 3 to wave us home.

<u>2007 Ballot</u>
1) Calvin Edwin Ripken Jr – “Iron Man”
It’s nice to know that, even if he’d skipped a couple here and there, he’d still be utterly worthy of this honor. 30th on Ken Shouler Top 100. 43rd on SABR Top 100. 48th on Bill James Top 100. 50th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 78th on Sporting News Top 100. New York Times Top 100.
2) Anthony Keith Gwynn
Tremendous hitter. Completely failed to recognize him on an elevator once, despite the fact that he had Rawlings glove-style luggage. Because I am a moron. 36th on Ken Shouler Top 100. 39th on SABR Top 100. 39th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 49th on SABR Top 100. 54th on Bill James Top 100.
3) Mark David McGwire – “Big Mac”
Back when he was still with Oakland, I used to discuss when he would break Maris’ record. I said that if he could ever get through a season healthy, he’d do it. Considering how injuries destroyed his 1993 and 1994 seasons, I actually think he seriously undershot his potential. Which is a little frightening. 25th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 31st on Bill James Top 100. 53rd on Ken Shouler Top 100. 61st on SABR Top 100. 91st on Sporting News Top 100.
4) Burleigh Arland Grimes – “Ol’ Stubblebeard”
Not just a Favorite Teddy Bear, but a Cherished Heirloom, and my white whale. A successful pitcher with both a dead ball and a live one. Frequently one of the best pitchers in the league, and often the best pitcher on his team. Many comparisons to Early Wynn, whom we did elect, and most similar to Red Faber, whom we also elected. Obviously, if I were keeping a PHOM, he’d have been in it decades ago. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
5) Kirby Puckett
I know he’s considered overrated, but Istill find him worthier of induction than most eligible candidates. Writers tend to overstate his career, overusing words like “stocky” and “fireplug”. But the man put up the numbers, with 6 Top 10 AL Win Shares seasons, and probably could have accumulated more (although I haven’t factored that in here). Also, if you’re like me and you ever ordered a McDonald’s Puck Pack, you’re still trying to burn that fat off. Sheesh. 86th on Sporting News Top 100. 95th on SABR Top 100. 98th on Bill James Top 100.
6) Dale Bryan Murphy
Rawagman has asked why I rank Murphy higher than Hugh Duffy. A fair question, as Duffy has bounced on and off my ballot. Numbers like career WS, prime WS, and Gray Ink are identical or nearly so. I suspect I dock Duffy for so much of his weight coming in a single season, and perhaps overrate Murphy for his 6 Top 10 seasons in NL Win Shares. I place Duffy somewhere in the 16-20 range, but perhaps they ought to be closer than they are. New York Times Top 100.
7) Atanasio Perez Rigal – “Tony”
McGwire and Perez have surprisingly similar career figures, although obviously McGwire is obviously more peakish. I think I’ve got Tony in the right place. 74th on Ken Shouler Top 100.
8) Orlando Manuel Cepeda Pennes – “Baby Bull”
Cepeda and Perez, together again. The biggest factor right now in my evaluation of Cepeda is the arrival on the ballot of Don Mattingly. They’re closer in merit than I realized, which is dragging them toward each other.
9) Carl William Mays
I have long considered Mays to be underrated, with better seasons and more milestones than more beloved candidates, like Luis Tiant and Billy Pierce. A much more definitive impact on his team and era than someone like, oh, Dave Stieb. I renew my suspicion that the ghost of Ray Chapman has shrouded his achievements.
10) Louis Clark Brock
Reaffirming my status as a career voter. He does well in Black and Gray Ink (owing, no doubt, to his prowess on the basepaths), and his prime WS and Top 10 WS seasons are notable. He’s hanging in there. 42nd on Ken Shouler Top 100. 58th on Sporting News Top 100. 73rd on SABR Top 100. 77th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. New York Times Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
11) Daniel Joseph “Rusty” Staub – “Le Grand Orange”
I‘m moving him up, because his career numbers actually stand out more than I realized. 358 WS is nothing to sneeze at, but his 5-year prime of 145 WS is also a standout. Imagine if he’d spent his career with one great team. 96th on SABR Top 100. 97th on Ken Shouler Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
12) Richard Redding – “Cannonball Dick”
Definitely the best remaining Negro League pitcher. That in and of itself may not merit his election. Hanging in there thanks to my support for Mays, who has a strikingly similar arc.
13) David Gene Parker – “Cobra”
Cblau inquires as to the source of my surprise over the electorate’s preference for Reggie Smith over Parker. I guess it’s because on certain metrics, they come out so similar, if slightly in Parker’s favor. Career WS nearly the same, WARP3 nearly the same, and Parker has a strong edge in Ink scores and counting stats. Does that make Parker automatically better? No, and that’s not what I said. (Smith has a lead in career OPS+ and Batting Wins, for example.) It’s just that I find them to be a lot closer to each other than 2 ballots vs. 2 dozen. Hence my surprise. And that’s why we have an election.
14) Donald Arthur Mattingly – “Donnie Baseball”
A huge shock. Considering the toll taken by injuries, he has really impressive seasonal numbers, including ink. Compares quite favorably with Perez and Cepeda, which makes me think that I either have them too high or Mattingly too low. We’re certainly not hurting for first basemen, he does far better than I anticipated. Damn Yankees.
15) Edgar Charles Rice – “Sam”
Cblau is also curious about my assessment of Rice’s WS vs. his team. The short version is, in 1917, 1919, 1920, 1921, 1922, and 1923, Rice was the top position player on his team (usually second only to Walter Johnson), and racked up 20 or more WS in five of those 6 seasons. Only in 1921 did his team manage to put together a winning record. A more specific example is in 1923, when the Nats went 75-78, and racked up 225 Win Shares. Rice had 24, leading the team. Rice continued to place among the top 3 on his team in the next three seasons, when Washington’s fortunes were considerably improved. So I admit it: I do find some merit in that.

<u>Other Top 10 Finishers</u>
Carl Reginald Smith – “Reggie”
As mentioned above, I have Parker ahead. I guess that’s that.
William Henry Walters – “Bucky”
I’ve got a lot of pitchers ahead of him. In particular, I have him around Tiant and John, who are good, but not quite there. I like him better than I liked Stieb, so there’s that.
Robert Lee Johnson – “Indian Bob”
Comes out similar to Heinie Manush, who I think is underrated, but still not quite ballot-worthy. So Bob falls short.
Bret William Saberhagen
One of my great regrets in this voting process is that my career-heavy considerating may have led me to unfairly slight Dizzy Dean. Even so, I have Dean above Saberhagen. I’m getting shades of Dave Stieb’s election here.
John Joseph McGraw
Nice to see you, John. As a third baseman alone, I have him behind Leach, Elliott, and Traynor. If we ever start considering his managerial career, I’ll rank him high.
   137. AJMcCringleberry Posted: November 13, 2007 at 01:09 AM (#2612775)
AJM--please post why you have declined to jump on the bandwagon of Top Ten Returnee John McGraw!

Not enough career value.
   138. Chris Cobb Posted: November 13, 2007 at 01:11 AM (#2612776)
2007 Ballot

I am in the middle of rethinking my rankings of pitchers, so this ballot has a number of changes on it, but the new rankings for pitchers are far from set. The big three make this an easy year to get part-way through a major revision!

Using career, total value above average, and peak rate in the three systems, I rank players against their immediate contemporaries (grouped by the decade in which they had the most value) and then integrate the decades into a combined list. Adding WAR into my system has enabled me to set a consistent historical scale. The in-out line at present for position players is about 240; for pitchers it is about 225. It will probably drop towards 235/220 as we move forward. Establishing this consistent scale and noting the different in/out line for pitchers and position players has led to considerable juggling in this year’s rankings.

(#) = Last year’s ranking
% = percentage above below approximate in-out line value for the player’s decade (old system)
Total = result of new system
Est. Total = result of old system scaled to fit new system

1. Cal Ripken (n/e). Total = 422.71. #3 player of 1980s, behind Henderson and Schmidt. Has an argument to be #2 shortstop all time, though Arky Vaughan also has a case, and maybe Pop Lloyd. Around #30 all time among players retired by 2001.
2. Tony Gwynn (n/e). Total = 311.27. A shoo-in, but only around the middle of the Hall of Merit. Tremendous pure hitter.
3. Mark McGwire (n/e). Total = 303.00. Without steroids, would he have been able to play enough in his mid-30s to be a HoMer?
4. Rick Reuschel (41). I’m leaning toward the idea that he’s the top pitching candidate available. I’ve been doing a careful review of pitchers, and my system was unfairly penalizing him in comparing him to AL pitchers in the DH era, and the low replacement level in W1 was also running him down. When I correct for those problems with WARP1, Reuschel leaps up from being comparable to Jim Kaat to being at the top of the backlog.
6. Buddy Bell (6). Total = 255.29. Better than I realized. Both WARP and WS love his defense, and he’s on the good side of the in-out line by both metrics in my system. Very similar to the recently and deservedly elected Nettles.
7. Luis Tiant (9). Total = 240.33. My system likes his effectiveness, even though he was not especially durable for his time. His durability in the early 1970s may have been affected by his pitching in an extreme hitter’s park. When I make the adjustments that bring Reuschel up, Tiant still looks good, though not quite as good as Reuschel.
8. Bret Saberhagen. (n/e). Total = 229.43. The best starting pitcher during the second half of the 1980s not named Clemens. A hair better overall, I think, than Stieb, whom we have already elected. Saberhagen’s case is weakened by his fragility, which kept his career innings low and kept him from putting any of his best seasons back to back. On the plus side, however, he has several truly great years, and he was almost always a highly effective pitcher by rate. BP has him at a 3.57 DERA in 2451 adjusted innings. Koufax is at 3.49 in 2239. Ed Walsh is at 3.58 in 2989. Lefty Gomez, by contrast, is at 3.98 in 2533. Ron Guidry is at 3.83 in 2274. Gomez and Guidry are not serious candidates, but Saberhagen should be. Stieb was elected with a 3.89 DERA in 2754 adj. innings, though he, like Koufax has a strong consecutive peak. Concerns about lots of near contemporaries being better are not unjustified, but I’ve done enough preliminary analysis to be comfortable making the case that Saberhagen at least belongs in the high backlog.
9. Dave Concepcion (16). Total = 238.22. Increasingly convinced that he belongs. He’s brought down in my rankings by win shares, and I’m ranking him now more where WARP1 and WAR put him.
10. Reggie Smith (10) Total = 243.15. Never had dominating seasons because his batting and fielding peaks are separate and he was out of the lineup a lot, but he never had a bad year, either. If we are going to elect one more outfielder in addition to Tim Raines, it should be Smith. We’re short on both 1970s stars and 1970s outfielders, even though we are long on outfielders overall.
11. David Cone (n/e). Total = 242.43. I’m going to look closely at Joe D’s take on Cone. My old system has him higher among pitchers than the new one appears to.
12. Tommy John (4). Total = 251.42. He doesn’t have a great peak, but his 12-14 year prime is about as good as any eligible pitcher’s, and he adds another 4-6 good years on top of that, which is quite extraordinary. He is the Jake Beckley of pitchers, and he ranks about where Beckley ranked before his election. John slips a bit in my rankings as a result of my replacement level adjustment, but he’s still a viable career candidate.
13. Dave Bancroft (8). Total = 253.25. Dropping him a bit because of problems with my period-adjustment system. The best combination of bat and glove among eligible shortstops, but in an easier era. If he could have stayed in the lineup more, we’d have elected him long ago, as he was a slightly better ballplayer than Sewell with a longer career. But having few seasons of 145+ games hurts him.
14. Rabbit Maranville (5) Total = 256.67. An all-time great defensive shortstop who hit enough in his prime to play at a consistent, all-star level. Current leader among eligible players in career WARP1 even without war credit for 1918 (which he also merits), he is the only long-career shortstop between Wagner and Appling. Using WAR moderates how well he does in my system, but applying my system to WAR still shows him as quite worthy.
15. Leroy Matlock. (68) Est. Total = 237.9. I’m not ranking quite as highly as his numbers indicate I should (I’m putting pitchers 5-10 above their listed totals, generally, to equalize them with position players) because players for whom I have numbers in only one system (in this case, MLE win shares) seem to place a little high. I am with Eric Chalek in my support for Matlock, however.
   139. Chris Cobb Posted: November 13, 2007 at 01:12 AM (#2612777)
2006 Off-Ballot. My pHoM in/out line is right around here at the moment. (I still don’t have a firmly worked out pHoM, but I’m getting closer.)

16. Bus Clarkson (12). Total = 239.97. Lots of discussion of his new MLEs has ended with his value looking about like it did before the revision, in my view. His career profile reminds me a lot of Darrell Evans, with a little more defense a little less offensive peak (though with regression it’s hard to judge peak). Both he and Evans were very good hitters all through their 30s because they really developed their “old player skills” of plate discipline and power in ways that offset their decline in other areas. It’s also the case, of course, that he’s similar to Perez, another power hitter who shifted from 3B to 1B in the course of his career. Perez shifted over at 30, though, while Evans made the shift at around 35, and Clarkson would have shifted over at 35-37. His fielding, then, gives him a significant edge over Perez.
17. Jimmy Ryan (20). Est. Total = 244.8. The best of the remaining 1890s outfielders. Career shape is a lot like Andre Dawson’s, actually. I’ve moved him up this year, and the numbers would have him on my ballot, but I don’t fully trust them yet. My review of the nineteenth century has started with pre-1893 pitchers. 1890s outfielders will be next.
18. Bob Johnson (12). Total = 242.16. As good as Medwick, better than Averill among his contemporaries. With Dan R’s WAR included in my system, it becomes clearer that Johnson belongs in the HoM.
19. Bobby Bonds (13) Total = 241.03. Similar to Jimmy Wynn, but not as strong a peak.
20. Tommy Leach (16). Total = 237.65. Fine player for a long time. Andrew Siegel’s brief analysis of his case is excellent, and Dan R’s war2 shows that his play in relatively high SD leagues was still very valuable, as does Joe Dimino’s PA analysis using Dan’s numbers. He slips a little bit with WAR added into the system, though. Looking at the numbers across decades, I’ve decided that I have to drop him off my ballot into my high backlog. I still think he’s a solid candidate, though, and I hope he will eventually win election. I like him a lot better than many players we are on the verge of electing.
21. Gavvy Cravath (21). Total = 237.57. Not as well-rounded as Oms, Smith, Dawson, or Bonds. But still a tremendous hitter whose value has been overlooked. Discussion of his case over the years has made me fairly certain that he does not have a hidden peak in his AA years as gadfly argued some time ago, but was a pretty similar player then to what he was in Philadelphia.
22. Dick Lundy (n/r). Yes, he’s highly comparable to Bancroft. I need to give him a more thorough examinination for 2008.
23. Norm Cash (22). Total = 237.23 A dark-horse candidate, but the best remaining position player from the 1960s.
24. Bret Butler (19). Total = 236.16. I discovered a small accounting error in my spreadsheets for Butler, so that drops him to a more intuitively suitable ranking, and I no longer have to go against my own numbers in keeping him off my ballot. Still, he’s very close to HoM quality.
25. Jim McCormick (17). Est. Total = 225.50. I had written him off, but a careful review of the numbers demands his placement in the high backlog. I now see him as belonging in the group of 1880s pitchers with Galvin, Keefe, and Clarkson. He was the #1 pitcher in baseball from 1879-82. After that, he was sometimes an elite pitcher and never a bad one. He slips just a little bit this year as I continue to fine-tune my analysis of 1880s pitchers. He could rise onto my ballot, along with Grimes just below, if I find that I am underrating pitchers a little bit.
26. Burleigh Grimes (23). Total = 224.18. Had a strong 14 year prime, in which he was a huge workhorse, but his value before and after his prime was minimal. He drops this year mostly because I have finished revamping my system for the twentieth century, so his relative position is clearer (and lower) than it was. Just below the current in/out line in my system, but he wouldn’t be a bad choice.
27. Ron Cey (24). Total = 235.52. System revamp moves him up a little. A smidge better than Ken Boyer, but his ballot-timing was worse.
28. Johnny Pesky (25). Total = 234.87. WAR highlights the strength of his peak. The best unelected major-leaguer of the 1940s.
29. Phil Rizzuto (26). Total = 233.58. Like several other shortstops, he leaps up in my rankings when WAR is included.
30. Lee Smith (28). Total = 222.7. I have Smith as the #4 relief pitcher among eligibles through 2003, trailing only HoMers Wilhelm, Gossage, and Fingers. Eckersley ranks ahead of him as a hybrid, and we can begin by this time to speculate about Rivera and Hoffman, who, if they sustain their current excellence, will pass Smith and merit induction. John Franco might pass Smith also, but I haven’t run numbers on him.
31. George Van Haltren (29). Est. Total = 231.32. A step behind Jimmy Ryan. A strong leadoff hitter. His defense in centerfield looks to have been a bit weak.
32. Tony Mullane (27). Est. total = 220.94. The second-best remaining 1880s candidate. A huge star in the AA, he was an effective two-way player, also. This placement does not include hold-out credit. He’s back in the rankings not because of Dan R’s work, but because reviewing Pete Browning’s case led me to look at the 1880s again, and I realized I had lost track of Mullane and a few other players from that decade. His rise hasn’t been as spectacular as McCormick’s, however.
33. Jim Kaat (40). Total = 220.85. Addition of WAR to the 1960s position players around him affects Kaat’s relative standing almost not at all.
34. Wilbur Wood (41). Total = 220.6. Should have been ranked years ago, but I had overlooked him in my lists. Highly effective as a reliever and as a starter, just not quite for long enough. A bit surprised no peak voters are supporting him.
35. Davy Force (30). Est. Total = 231.09. Great NA peak, and a long period of defensive excellence when that meant a great deal. Back on my radar from the 19th century review.
36. Ken Singleton (31). Total = 230.61. Remains ahead of Staub and Perez among 1970s bats. His fine performance in my study of high-peak hitters didn’t hurt him in my estimation.
37. Don Newcombe (49). % = .9886. He has probably slipped too far down. When I apply Dan R’s numbers to the 1950s, that will lead to a more accurate ranking for Newcombe. My view of him as a bit below the in-out line includes MiL credit and war credit.
38. Frank Tanana (32). Total = 226.42. Nice but not world-beating peak, and most of his career was truly undistinguished. I think my system overrates him a little, so I have him a bit below where his numbers indicate he should be.
39. Herman Long (33). % = 1.0192. His case is of the same sort as Maranville’s, but he was not as brilliant a fielder and had a shorter career, so when Maranville drops to where Long was, Long drops to the all-time in-out line or thereabouts. Dan R’s numbers on Long are not encouraging, so he slips a bit his year. May move considerably up or down when I review the 1890s more thoroughly.
40. Dick Redding (34). % = 1.00. Needs new MLEs, which I will do, someday. None of the additional, reliable data provided by Gary A. shows Redding to be pitching at a level that looks worthy of the HoM. None of the years reputed to be his best are part of this additional documentation, but the more data that shows him looking like a pitcher who was a bit above average in the NeL and, therefore, about average in the ML, the more his case is weakened, in my view. I’m not dropping him out of the picture altogether, but I’m putting him, for the moment at the bottom of the borderline-in group of players. It seems probable to me now that, unless the trend in evidence turns, he will drop further. It’s very hard for me right now, for instance, to accept that he was probably better than Urban Shocker and Don Newcombe.
41. Rusty Staub (35). Total = 229.38. Adding WAR brings Staub to a spot in my rankings that seems more intuitively correct, countering the inflation of his value by the low replacement levels of WS and WARP. His profile is a lot like Jimmy Ryan’s, but I think Ryan’s is more meritorious because it was harder to put up a long career in the 1890s than in the 1970s.
42. Bruce Sutter (36). Total = 219.63. A lit bit behind Lee Smith.
43. Ron Guidry (37). Total = 218.85. Great peak. I don’t know why the peak pitching voters aren’t giving him any support. I’d take him, on peak, over either Bucky Walters or Lefty Gomez. I’m inclined to move him up, but more study is needed.
44. Bill Monroe (38). % = .9922
45. Carlos Moran (39). This is a very preliminary placement, pending the completion of my study of him and a further look at Bill Monroe, whose case has also been reopened by new statistical analysis. Moran is in the neighborhood of Tommy Leach, Monroe, and Johnny Evers. I have Leach somewhat ahead (and on ballot) due to better career value, so Moran’s initial placement is halfway between Monroe and Evers. I hope to have him more definitely placed before we catch up to the present
46. Toby Harrah (43). Total = 228.38. WAR foregrounds the value of Harrah’s hitting at shortstop during the 1970s, when few shortstops could hit at all.
47. Bucky Walters (44). Total = 217.92. Recalibration brings him into my rankings, but he’s still about 15 pitchers down in my rankings. Nice peak, but really, he was no better than average outside those four great years. Jim McCormick has a nice peak, too, and he was better outside that peak. So too was Ron Guidry. There are a number of better pitching choices out there.
48. Kiki Cuyler (45). Total = 227.59. I should have had him in my rankings long ago; the system revision prompts me to make the move.
49. Dom Dimaggio (46). Total = 227.5 Has dropped a bit relative to the 1940s infielders. Still a fine player.
50. Mark Langston. Total = 216.78. A consistently strong pitcher, durable and effective. Won more than his stats would indicate he should have, given his run support, defensive, support, and pitching quality. Luck or savvy? Or good relief support?
   140. Chris Cobb Posted: November 13, 2007 at 01:13 AM (#2612778)
51. Chet Lemon (47). Total = 226.67. If we are going to take seriously the rise in the importance of centerfield defense after 1970, candidates like Lemon ought to benefit.
52. Orel Hershiser (n/e). Total = 216.5. A couple of great years and then a long stretch as a somewhat above-average pitcher lands him here. I am probably underrating him, because this placement doesn’t account for the new pitching system at all, and as an NL pitcher in the post-DH era, he is surely being underrated by the old system relative to his AL contemporaries. Does better by win-based analysis than component-stat analysis, as does Langston above. Langston edges Hershiser because, even though he lacks the great years, he was considerably above average for much longer than Hershiser was. I
53. Tony Perez (48). Total 226.35. The WAR perspective drops Perez considerably. His peak isn’t special, and his later career has very little value.
54. Urban Shocker (50). Total = 215.43. Need to work out WW1 credit for him, though I don’t see that it will get him over the all-time in/out line.
55. Vern Stephens (51). Total = 225.14
56. Dick Bartell (52). Total = 223.54
57. Albert Belle</b>. Total = 222.74. Three monster years are not quite enough to bring him into the Hall of Merit. If he had been that great for five years running, he would have made it, despite his career being cut short by injury.
58. Jose Cruz (54). Total = 222.37.
59. Gene Tenace (55). Total = 221.37. WAR shows him in a good light, making him the #1 catcher in my rankings at present.
60. Kirby Puckett (56). Total = 221.37.
61. Joe Tinker (57). Total = 221.18. Slips with WAR evaluation, which raises replacement level for the shortstops of the aughts. But he doesn’t slip as much as Johnny Evers, who has dropped out of the rankings list.
62. Bert Campaneris (58). Total = 220.9.
63. Tommy Bond (59). Est. Total = 210.24. He was the top pitcher of the late 1870s, but that was almost by default. Jim Devlin was a lot better but had the gambling issues, and the 6-team NL was missing a lot of the best players. If we were electing 300 players through 2007, instead of 231, he could be elected, but we’re not.
64. Dale Murphy (60). Total = 220.31. WAR brings out how little value Murphy added outside his peak. He was a great player for five years out of six, but the rest of his career wasn’t worth much.
65. Bob Elliott (61). Total = 219.49.
66. Fred Lynn (62). Total = 219.38. Like Butler and Lemon, WAR raises him in my view.
67. Lave Cross (63). % = .9709
68. George Burns (64). Total = 217.75
69. Hugh Duffy (65) % = .9686
70. Ben Taylor (66) % = .9667
71. Fred Dunlap (67) Est. Total = 217.2 Sole position player from the 1880s in my top 70.
72. Charlie Hough (68). Total = 207.2. Reweighting of pitchers brings him into my rankings.
73. Jim Whitney (n/r). Total = 207.07. My review of 19th-century players brings him in to the rankings. FWIW, I like him better than Caruthers, though I haven’t reviewed my analysis of Caruthers yet. Their careers were the inverses of one another. Whitney consistently pitched for bad teams with often terrible defenses, while Caruthers consistently pitched for excellent teams with often brilliant defenses. All of Whitney’s talent only served to keep him from having a terrible record, where Caruthers similar talent served to give him one of the best winning percentages of all time.
74. George Foster (69). Total = 216.65. A better peak than Dave Parker.
75. Buzz Arlett (70). % = .9602
76. Jack Clark (71). Total = 214.98
77. Mickey Welch (72). Est Total = 204.35. 300 wins brings him back onto the radar. I’m not convinced we yet have a good measurement of pitching value for the 1880s. McCormick, Mullane, and Welch all might be worthy, but then again, they might not. Welch needs a win-based assessment to get into the discussion, because his component stats don’t look like much. But the wins aren’t just a product of run support or fielding support. Maybe someday we’ll truly understand the 1880s game . . .
78. Tony Lazzeri (73). Total = 213.33.
79. Jim Rice (74). Total = 213.05
80. Cy Seymour (75). Total = 212.11

Returning top 10 not on my ballot:

Bucky Walters. See #47 above.

Dick Redding. See #40 above.

Bob Johnson. See #18 above.

John McGraw. My system has long concluded that McGraw just doesn’t have enough playing time. I need to reexamine him in light of many recent changes to my system, and he will probably break onto the list above: he surely deserves to be in the top 80! But I don’t see him close to the ballot. Next year I will be sure to have a full, updated analysis for him.

Tony Perez. See #53 above.

Kirby Puckett. See #60 above. Has some decent arguments in his favor.

Gavvy Cravath. See #21 above. I support his election, but he doesn’t quite make my ballot.

Phil Rizzuto. See #29 above.

I haven’t finished my analysis of the 2007 newly eligible players who look to be outside my top 80: Fernandez, O’Neill, Canseco, Bonilla, Joyner, Caminiti, White, and Davis. So brief comments on them will have to wait for the 2008 ballot.
   141. Chris Cobb Posted: November 13, 2007 at 01:17 AM (#2612781)
Joe Dimino, did you forget about David Cone?

I expected, from your earlier comments, to see him on your ballot. From the fact that he doesn't appear even in the "close" list, I am guessing you've forgotten about him. Doesn't matter for this year of course, but I have been curious all week where you would rank him!
   142. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: November 13, 2007 at 01:21 AM (#2612782)
OCF--I don't assume anything about what any voter thinks. And, moreover, since it has been so long since McGraw was considered a "serious" candidate (as measured by top 10 returnee status), I think it is entirely possible that some voters may have forgotten about him over the years as their systems or preferences have evolved, and that newer voters may never have given him the consideration he deserves as well, since he was buried in the deep, deep backlog when they joined the project. Regardless, the rule is, top 10 returnees need to be commented on. Why have the rule if we're not going to enforce it for candidates that you don't happen to support?
   143. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: November 13, 2007 at 01:21 AM (#2612783)
Chris, you don't have a #5.
   144. Chris Cobb Posted: November 13, 2007 at 01:25 AM (#2612785)
Sorry! The consequence of trying to re-arrange and post in a hurry. Just move everybody up one:

1. Ripken
2. Gwynn
3. McGwire
4. Reuschel
5. Bell
6. Tiant
7. Saberhagen
8. Concepcion
9. Smith
10. Cone
11. John
12. Bancroft
13. Maranville
14. Matlock
15. Clarkson
   145. Howie Menckel Posted: November 13, 2007 at 01:28 AM (#2612786)
To OCF: I think the idea is that once a player reaches top 10 status, it's more important than ever to be doubly sure that all voters have fully considered him. Before that point, it may matter less, although of course we want all players considered by all voters.

Also Dan R's post had a smiley face with it, likely meaning that he's not obsessing over it.

I find the top 10 requirement so helpful that I list all 10 also-rans, not just the 7 guys who were in the top 10 with the electees. And on occasion I am surprised be a reevaluation - especially with the older guys.

For instance, some 1900s player might have been 30th for me in 1940 or whatever. I figured he's gone for good. But if 20 other also-rans were elected, and we get a better handle on some aspect of the oldtimer's career, he could make it onto my ballot after a decades-long disappearance.
   146. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: November 13, 2007 at 01:39 AM (#2612787)
My original comment was most definitely meant in good humor, but I changed tone after taking umbrage at OCF's implications that a) I should try to read other voters' minds b) our rules should not be enforced and c) there is nothing more to say about McGraw, who has taken a meteoric rise in the electorate's view in recent "years."
   147. sunnyday2 Posted: November 13, 2007 at 01:43 AM (#2612791)
Umbrage is overrated.
   148. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: November 13, 2007 at 01:49 AM (#2612794)
Umbrage is overrated.


Definitely. He was in charge of the IOC way too long.
   149. Howie Menckel Posted: November 13, 2007 at 01:54 AM (#2612797)
That's Avery Umbrage, for those to young to recall.
:)
   150. ronw Posted: November 13, 2007 at 01:54 AM (#2612799)
Apparently, steroids are also overrated among the HOM electorate. Only a few boycotts for Big Mac.
   151. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: November 13, 2007 at 01:55 AM (#2612800)
Heh.
   152. KJOK Posted: November 13, 2007 at 01:55 AM (#2612801)
Running out of time, so may have to post comments for the newbies later tonight:

Added “Rosenheck Method” to using OWP w/playing time, Player Overall Wins Score, and defense (Win Shares/BP/Fielding Runs) for position players, applied to .500 baselines. Using Runs Saved Above Average, Player Overall WInsScore and Support Neutral Fibonacci Wins for Pitchers. For Position Players AND Pitchers, heavily weight comparison vs. contemporaries, and lightly look at WARP1 and Win Shares.

1. CAL RIPKEN, SS.

2. MARK McGWIRE, 1B.

3. TONY GWYN, RF.

4. JOHN McGRAW, 3B. 20 POW, 207 Win Shares, 78 WARP1, 459 RCAP & .727 OWP in 4,909 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Was CAREER ALL-TIME OBP% leader until Ruth qualifies in 1923, EVEN adjusting for League, and is STILL #3 behind Williams and Ruth. AND he played 3B, where offensive output was generally very low. Plus led his team to 3 consecutive championships. Oh, AND at least 2nd best 3B between 1875-1900!

5. REGGIE SMITH, CF/RF. 32 POW, 325 Win Shares, 99 WARP1, 281 RCAP & .653 OWP in 8,050 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Hit like a 1st baseman, yet could play multiple defensive positions well.

6. BOB JOHNSON, LF. 36 POW, 287 Win Shares, 102 WARP1, 319 RCAP & .651 OWP in 8,047 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Many many very very good seasons.

7. DAVE BANCROFT, SS. 36 POW, 269 Win Shares, 111 WARP1, 157 RCAP & .498 OWP in 8,244 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT. Similar to Bobby Wallace and Ozzie Smith – better hitter than Ozzie, and almost as great fielding - so surprised he’s not getting more votes.

8. TONY MULLANE, P.30 POW, 399 Win Shares, 89 WARP1, 241 RSAA, 240 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 118 ERA+ in 4,531(!) innings. He could hit a little too. Had a very good career AND some really good individual seasons. AA discount keeps him from being a TOP 3 ballot player.


9. BUS CLARKSON, SS/3B. Estimated 123 OPS+ over 8,478 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Hitting far exceeds guys like Marcelle, Dandridge, etc. Tore up the Texas League when he was older and the league was high quality.

10. DICK REDDING, P. 183 MLE Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 114 MLE ERA+ in 3,556 innings. Was the 2nd best Negro League Pitcher in his era, behind only Williams.

11. PHIL RIZZUTO, SS 19 POW, 231 Win Shares, 74 WARP1, 67 RCAP & .494 OWP in 6,710 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT. Defense, War Credit, and Postion moved him up.

12. BERT CAMPANERIS, SS 14 POW, 280 Win Shares, 90 WARP1, 149 RCAP & .470 OWP in 9,625 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Convinced better than Concepcion & Fregosi.

13. DAVE CONCEPCION, SS 18 POW, 269 Win Shares, 100 WARP1, 126 RCAP & .425 OWP in 9,640 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT. Right up with Ozzie defensively.

14. JIM FREGOSI, SS. 26 POW, 261 Win Shares, 76 WARP1, 203 RCAP & .565 OWP in 7,402 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Just needs a little more something – defense, or career length, etc. – but still historically underrated, and perhaps just as good as Dobie Moore and Concepcion.

15. NORM CASH, 1B. 31 POW, 315 Win Shares, 102 WARP1, 295 RCAP & .671 OWP in 7,910 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Obviously underrated player who just needs more in-season PT to make a high ballot slot.


LEFT OFF THE BALLOT:

NEWBIES OF NOTE:

TONY FERNANDEZ, SS.

RETURNEES:

BUCKY WALTERS, P.25 POW, 89 WARP1, 161 RSAA, 166 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 115 ERA+ in 3,104 innings. Hitting helps him, but doesn’t quite stack up to other pitchers

BRET SABERHAGEN, P.28 POW, 193 Win Shares, 88 WARP1, 241 RSAA, 167 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 126 ERA+ in 2,563 innings. Three really good years, but too many injury or sub-par years beyond that.

TONY PEREZ, 1B/3B. 10 POW, 349 Win Shares, 113 WARP1, 146 RCAP & .582 OWP in 10,861 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. I don’t see the love – had a few years at 3B that were not quite Rosen-esque, then became Beckley-lite. Perhaps most over-rated player ever.

KIRBY PUCKETT, CF. 24 POW, 281 Win Shares, 81 WARP1, 209 RCAP & .602 OWP in 12,358 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Needs a little more value to be any higher.

GAVVY CRAVATH, RF. 18 POW, 202 Win Shares, 59 WARP1, 238 RCAP & .709 OWP in 4,644 PA’s. Def: FAIR. McGraw provided better offense in more MLB PA’s at a tougher position.

TOMMY LEACH, CF/3B. .552 OWP, 121 RCAP, 9,051 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT – 3B, VERY GOOD – CF. Just slightly below Collins defensively, and he played longer. Basically did everything well, but doesn’t have the one outstanding area to get noticed.

HUGH DUFFY, CF/LF. 5 POW, 95 WARP1, 154 RCAP & .623 OWP in 7,838 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Just not in the elite OF class offensively, and fielding runs doesn’t even like his defense (-31).

LUIS TIANT, P.22 POW, 256 Win Shares, 102 WARP1, 172 RSAA, 185 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 114 ERA+ in 3,486 innings. Tough competition from contemporaries, and mid-career lull, keeps him off ballot.

GEORGE VAN HALTREN, CF. 12 POW, 118 WARP1, 167 RCAP & .620 OWP in 8,992 PAs. Def: FAIR. He wasn’t that far above position offensively, and wasn’t that good defensively.
   153. Juan V Posted: November 13, 2007 at 01:57 AM (#2612804)
I guess the election has been over for some time, no?
   154. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: November 13, 2007 at 01:58 AM (#2612805)
Apparently, steroids are also overrated among the HOM electorate. Only a few boycotts for Big Mac.


I think things would have been different for him a few years ago when he first testified before Congress. But there have been so many players since then who have been targeted using steroids that Big Mac doesn't appear to be an exception anymore.
   155. Juan V Posted: November 13, 2007 at 02:00 AM (#2612807)
Also, things might be different if we did this again a few weeks from now (ie. when the Mitchell report gets out there).
   156. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: November 13, 2007 at 02:00 AM (#2612808)
The election is now over. Results will be posted at 10 PM EDT.
   157. Max Parkinson Posted: November 13, 2007 at 02:01 AM (#2612811)
2006 ballot

I tend towards the peak/prime end of this group, with about half of the value players can earn in my system afforded to their best 7-9 or less years. My basic valuations are based on how well a player performs relative to his competition, although I also make allowances for offensive position - I like to have leadoff hitters, and power hitters, and basestealers, and glove guys. One significant way in which I may deviate from the consensus here is that I prefer guys who excel in one (but certainly more is good) facet of the game, where people here like to root for the all-rounders, possibly because they've been influenced by James, and believe that those guys are not sufficiently represented in the Coop.

Being the best Hitter, or Power Hitter, or a superlative glove man means something to me that being pretty good at everything doesn't. Hence I don't see Jimmy Wynn as very worthy, but apparently enough of you all do. Also, I’m less impressed with offensive players whose main talent was walking than the group as a whole (yest obviously aside) – players like Darrell Evans and Ken Singleton are much lower for me than the consensus.

I am pretty confident in my rankings of hitters against other hitters, and pitchers against other pitchers, and then try my best to fit them together...

Oh, and I don't give war credit - to this point, it's kept only Pee Wee Reese and Joe Gordon out of my Hall of Merit relative to the group's inductees.

1. Cal Ripken

Uh huh.

2. Tony Gwynn

Him Too.

3. Dick Redding

A strong early peak and longish career helps to overcome the lackluster middle parts of his career.

4. Dizzy Dean

I agree with Marc – for voters who really value peaks, Dean is this projects biggest oversight.

5. John McGraw

If we were factoring in managerial success, he would have been in this hall as early as the ‘Coop. Alas, it’s looking tough for him here on playing alone. Not for me, though.

6. Gavvy Cravath

Another adjustment. Was the best RF in the game for a good 6 year stretch, with MVP-calibre seasons thrown in. I have resisted adding too much credit for MiL performance, but I couldn’t keep him from the ballot any longer.

7. Bucky Walters

A very good peak, and good hitter to boot. He’s the edge right now for elected pitchers.

8. (N)Ed Williamson

Between McGraw and Williamson, we could shore up the 3B drought pretty quick.

9. Ben Taylor

A long career, great glove 1B who played between the ABC boys and Gehrig/Foxx. If we need to fill a positional gap, here’s your man.

10. Albert Belle

Another terror with the bat. 103 Extra Base Hits in 143 games. Wow.

11. Dick Lundy

Now that the MLEs run closer to his reputation… I may be underrating him here, as a Bobby Wallace clone, but he’s on the doorstep of my personal Hall, and will probably jump in.

12. George Burns

Maybe I’m crazy, but if he had put up the exact same numbers, and been an average CF as opposed to a terrific LF (that is, no change to his talent or performance, just what was written on the lineup card), I think he’d be in already.

13. Bobby Veach

Someone here (DanG?) used to post lists of top OPS+ by time period. Of the 1900-1920 group, the only unelected members of the top 20 are Cravath (no. 1), Veach and Bresnahan….

14. Luis Tiant

For me, he’s just outside in/out line. I wouldn’t cry if he makes it or he doesn’t.

15. Don Newcombe

While I don’t give war credit for Korea, I believe that he would have contributed earlier than he did if not for the colour line. Alas, if he could have just got two more outs in his most famous outing, none of us would have ever said the name Bobby Thomson.

Others of Note:

Johnson – In the ‘30s along with Klein and Hack Wilson.

Puckett – I was surprised to find how low my system ranked him. The bonus that he gets for dragging two teams to World Series titles still only gets him into the ‘40s.

Ken Singleton – see Jim Rice comment. Another player who the statheads love due to the walks, but is very overrated just looking at RC or OPS.

Mark McGwire – I am convinced that “outside agencies” were instrumental in creating much of the value that determines votes here.
   158. Juan V Posted: November 13, 2007 at 02:01 AM (#2612812)
Oh, now it's over. Forgot about daylight savings...
   159. Max Parkinson Posted: November 13, 2007 at 02:02 AM (#2612813)
I won't fuss if this isn't counted. Traffic kept me a little later than I meant to be.
   160. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: November 13, 2007 at 02:09 AM (#2612815)
I won't fuss if this isn't counted.


That's good, Max, because I can't. :-)

Fortunately, your ballot wouldn't have changed anything.
   161. OCF Posted: November 13, 2007 at 02:26 AM (#2612835)
A lot of missing voters this year: fra paolo, Mark S., mulder & scully, Thane of Bagarth, Tiboreau, Trevor P. And Max missed the deadline. There was one returning voter: Craig K.
   162. OCF Posted: November 13, 2007 at 02:38 AM (#2612845)
With no mystery about the election results, I'll go ahead and post the consensus analysis here. Also: even though Max P's vote doesn't count, I'll go ahead and include it in the consensus scores.

The highest possible consensus score was 12. The average was 2.9. This is the highest average and first positive average since 1982's 3.1 (Aaron/Robinson/B.Williams.)

Devin McCullen: 8
Howie Menckel: 8
favre: 7
Sean Gilman: 7
Tom H: 6
Mike Webber
Chris Fluit: 6
Al Peterson: 6
ronw: 6
Jim Sp: 6
Andrew M: 6
...
John Murphy: 4
...
rawagman: 4 (median)
...
OCF: 3
...
SWW: 2
sunnyday2: 2
Daryn: 2
Don F: 2
Rob Wood: 1
jimd: 1
rico vanian: 0
EricC: -1
Adam Schafer: -1
Patrick W: -2
karlmagnus: -4
Max Parkinson: -7 (unofficially, of course)
'zop: -8
yest: -15
   163. Howie Menckel Posted: November 13, 2007 at 03:08 AM (#2612866)
guh, always the bridesmaid...

:)
   164. sunnyday2 Posted: November 13, 2007 at 03:14 AM (#2612872)
karl is certainly backsliding.

What is DanR's score?
   165. rawagman Posted: November 13, 2007 at 03:20 AM (#2612879)
I was also the median last year wasn't I? It truly is an honour.
   166. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: November 13, 2007 at 03:21 AM (#2612880)
What is DanR's score?


I think 5, Marc.
   167. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: November 13, 2007 at 03:27 AM (#2612886)
Woo hoo! What do I win?
   168. OCF Posted: November 13, 2007 at 03:33 AM (#2612897)
Yes, Dan is a 5. Actually, 5.4.
   169. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: November 13, 2007 at 05:26 AM (#2613034)
If you don't mind my asking, sunnyday, what inspired you to ask?


I'm surprised 'zop and I are so far apart, since our ballots are usually so similar. I guess his new Dom DiMaggio infatuation didn't help much there.
   170. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: November 13, 2007 at 05:51 AM (#2613061)
I'm surprised 'zop and I are so far apart, since our ballots are usually so similar. I guess his new Dom DiMaggio infatuation didn't help much there.

I boycotted McJuicer.
   171. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: November 13, 2007 at 05:56 AM (#2613067)
Ah, that does it.
   172. sunnyday2 Posted: November 13, 2007 at 06:10 AM (#2613076)
>If you don't mind my asking, sunnyday, what inspired you to ask?

In an earlier discussion, John opined that you were possibly a "most influential" voter.

>I'm surprised 'zop and I are so far apart, since our ballots are usually so similar. I guess his new Dom DiMaggio infatuation didn't help much there.

Yes, quite surprising.

If John or OCF is still "up," what is Chris Cobb's score?

Not that "influential" and high consensus are quite synonymous, though the latter might be one example of the former, or not.
   173. OCF Posted: November 13, 2007 at 06:48 AM (#2613103)
(I'm on Pacific time - it's not that late.)

Chris Cobb had a +4: still a little above average.

The two who boycotted McGwire were yest and 'zop; Max P would have been a third. The motivations of the large crop of non-voters cannot even be guessed at.
   174. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: November 13, 2007 at 07:09 AM (#2613118)
I think John just meant that I spend far too much time posting on these threads. Maybe I'm trying to compensate for my 60-"year" absence and get my total post count up to speed. :)

I imagine many people failed to vote because this was not a contested election.
   175. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: November 13, 2007 at 12:24 PM (#2613175)
I think John just meant that I spend far too much time posting on these threads. Maybe I'm trying to compensate for my 60-"year" absence and get my total post count up to speed. :)


Actually, the reason I posted it was that certain players (Nettles, i.e.) would never have been elected if you hadn't created your system.

I imagine many people failed to vote because this was not a contested election.


Most likely, Dan.
   176. sunnyday2 Posted: November 13, 2007 at 01:48 PM (#2613184)
>Actually, the reason I posted it was that certain players (Nettles, i.e.) would never have been elected if you hadn't created your system.

That was the context. There's never been a rise as meteoric as "Craig's" on this list. I hope Lundy follows, BTW.
   177. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: November 13, 2007 at 03:24 PM (#2613237)
I think that list begins and ends with Nettles. But hopefully we'll add another in '08! I suppose I could take some "credit" for Reggie Smith if he gets in; I've probably been his most vigorous advocate, although he's on the bottom half of my ballot these days. I support Saberhagen but am a mere bandwagon-jumper there.

The guy I'm *really* going to push for in the next three weeks is Lundy. I think he can unite the divided "glove vote" if we can just get him on everyone's radar screen.
   178. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: November 13, 2007 at 03:49 PM (#2613271)
Joe Dimino's pitcher numbers are extremely good and should get more traction in the group than they have, but I think they suffer from a few serious flaws, above all the fact that he adjusts for seasonal IP norms but not for career length. This leads pre-1920 pitchers to get absolutely creamed, because their innings get reduced to a liveball workload but they are not given credit for the extra seasons liveball pitchers accumulate. Joe's numbers show John Clarkson with less career value than such leading lights as Dutch Leonard, Bob Shawkey, and Dennis Martinez.


Thanks Dan.

If you notice in the spreadsheet I sent, I separate out the pre-1893 pitchers - Clarkson is in his own group - I don't compare those guys directly with the others. I realize the system misses there.

But I disagree that I 'cream' pre-1920s pitchers. I've got Johnson far ahead as #1, I've got Mathewson, Young, even Ed Walsh rated very highly.

**********

Chris Cobb - yes, I forgot about Cone. Damnit.

I looked up and saw Fernandez and Baines next on the list, who I evaluated and passed on, and didn't get all the way down to Cone. He most definitely would have been on my ballot. He'll be on the 2008 version.
   179. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: November 13, 2007 at 03:53 PM (#2613275)
I would have had Cone somewhere between 6 and 10. He's clearly better than Saberhagen, IMO. I think the group is definitely missing there.
   180. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: November 13, 2007 at 04:19 PM (#2613303)
Desviaciones estándares....there's just no way you can equate Cone's ERA+ in 1999 with Saberhagen's in 1987. They're completely different beasts.

Johnson, Mathewson, and Young are inner-circle greats, and they would be no matter what system you use. The question is how you treat the borderliners, not the no-brainers. The guys who threw so many innings their arms blew out--Waddell, McGinnity, Brown, Griffith among HoMers--get clobbered. Basically, the worst pre-1920 pitchers that your system sees as deserving are Ed Walsh, Amos Rusie, and Eddie Plank. That is a MUCH higher standard than the one that applies to subsequent eras.

I don't want to sound like I'm bashing you here--I think you do great work and have made numerous invaluable contributions to the group's knowledge. I just have a very sharp disagreement with you on this one particular point (and a few lesser ones :)).
   181. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: November 13, 2007 at 04:20 PM (#2613304)
Wow, my basement-bound consensus score has recently taken a turn for the downright agreeable. Ghastly, I tell you.
   182. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: November 13, 2007 at 04:42 PM (#2613330)
I think that list begins and ends with Nettles.


McGraw is another guy who has popped out of nowhere. Probably Saberhagen, too.
   183. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: November 13, 2007 at 04:56 PM (#2613357)
Yeah, somehow I don't think McGraw actually has a shot to get in, although I'd be elated if he did. I support Saberhagen but I am hardly his best friend or most vocal backer.
   184. Paul Wendt Posted: November 14, 2007 at 12:27 AM (#2613888)
I imagine many people failed to vote because this was not a contested election.

I think I said that in advance of the Hank Aaron - Frank Robinson election, but Hank & Frank tied the maximum turnout.

1934 results - Cobb and Co. (hotly contested)

1982 results Aaron & Robinson (practically uncontested)
   185. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: November 14, 2007 at 01:28 AM (#2613942)
I think I said that in advance of the Hank Aaron - Frank Robinson election, but Hank & Frank tied the maximum turnout.


In Aaron's case, there was the added incentive for voters to have him claim the HoM single-season points record over Cobb.
   186. Paul Wendt Posted: November 14, 2007 at 01:41 AM (#2613949)
heh
:-)
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