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Hall of Merit
— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best

Monday, November 26, 2007

2008 Ballot (Elect Three)

Prominent new candidates: Tim Raines, Chuck Finley, Chuck Knoblauch, David Justice and Brady Anderson.

Top-ten returnees: Bret Saberhagen, Reggie Smith, Cannonball Dick Redding, Bucky Walters, Tommy Leach, Bob Johnson and Kirby Puckett.

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: November 26, 2007 at 02:26 PM | 143 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   101. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: December 03, 2007 at 08:10 PM (#2632511)
From the category of This Probably Means Something, But I Don't Know What: I realized after submitting my ballot, that of the 15 guys who are PHoM-not-HoM, only 1 of them (Rizzuto) is actually in the Hall of Fame, while of the 13 guys (right now) who are HoM-not-PHoM, 9 of them are in the HoF.

Also, bump.
   102. mulder & scully Posted: December 03, 2007 at 08:17 PM (#2632528)
2008 Ballot: Tim Raines is an easy PHOM. John McGraw gets one of my last four spots (2 in 2006 and 2 in 2008). Other candidates include Lundy, Pesky, Saberhagen, or one of the past Homer, NotPHOMers.

Numbers 4-20 were incredibly difficult to place.

Here are the factors I consider: A mix of Win Shares and DanR’s WARP. Shortstops do very well in Dan’s system, but I also consider ranking within each position separately.
1. 7 year prime
2. 3 years consecutive peak
3. rank within era and position
4. career
5. per season of 648 PA - benefits players like Chance, hurts those who played in high offense eras like the 1890s
I give bonus for being an all-star by win shares or STATS or DanR WARP
I include time missed for WWI and II in most cases.
I include time in high minors if a player is blocked because of when he played - independent minors.
I include time for some suspensions: Charley Jones - yes, Joe Jackson - no
I believe in MLEs for skin color.

1. Tim Raines (PHOM 2008) – Having grown up in San Diego during the 1980s, it is emotionally tough to recognize him as the equal of Gwynn, but he was, just accumulated the value differently. I remember starting to read Bill James’ Abstract in 1984 so I always thought Raines was a great player during the mid-80s, but the decline/injuries/changes in the game made me forget how good he really was.

2. Tommy Leach (PHOM 1966) - Great defense at third and CF - gold glove level at both. A key player in one of the best defensive teams ever. Top 15 if whole career is at 3rd and top 25 in CF if whole career was there. Split the difference and he is about even with Hack and Sutton (w/o NA credit).
Top 10 in league in 1902, 1904, 1907, 1908, 1909, 1913, 1914. Rank in league/majors: 4th/5th, 14th in 1903 but 9 are outfielders, 6th t/16th t, 3rd t/7th t, 4th/9th, 7th/11th, 4th t/12th t, 4th/9th.
Best in league at 3rd: 1902, 1903, 1904. Best in majors: 1902.
Top 3 in league in outfield: 1907, 1913, 1914. 4th by one WS in 1909.
WARP really supports how impressive his defense was.

3. Bucky Walters (PHOM 1958) - Great peak. This ranking includes deductions for 1943-45. Best peak available (tied with Dean) among eligible white pitchers. Best NL pitcher in 1939, 1940, and 1944. 2nd in NL by a hair in 1941. Best in Majors in 1939, top 4 in other 3 years.

4. Mickey Welch (PHOM 1901) - I think we missed on him. Of the great pre-60' pitchers, he had some of the worst run and defensive support - compare to Clarkson or Radbourn or Keefe (when he wasn't with NY). Chris J.'s run support index shows that his wins are real. Also, beat opposing HoMers like a drum.

5. Hugh Duffy (PHOM 1919) - Great defender. Great prime and peak. All-star 5 times. twice best in league. Moved to LF because McCarthy couldn't hit anymore and you needed two CF in Boston's park - see SABR's new stadium book. Not at the level of several HOM 90s outfielders but comfortably above the CF standards.
A key member of the best team of the 1890s. Please see the Keltner List for him. Ranks in a group of 5 center fielders between 13th and 17th all-time. Doby, Hill, and Brown are in the HoM, Browning is not. Top 10 in 1890, 1891, 1892, 1893, 1894, and 1897. 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 1st, 1st, and 8th. 11th in 1895.

6. Vic Willis (PHOM 1942) - Best pitcher in NL two times, second best in NL two times. Almost even with McGinnity. 4 times one of the top 2 pitchers in the National League. Best in NL in 1899 and 1901, 2nd in 1902 and 1906. Top 10 most every other year.

7. Gavy Cravath (PHOM 1979) - All players, All times. All-Star 5 times by STATS and Win Shares. Top ten position player in NL in 1913 - 1917. 1st, 3rd, 1st, 6th, 7th. A top 10 player in either league from 1909-1911 while with Minneapolis. Great peak and prime - 7 times an all-star including 1910 and 1911. Unique career that was a result of his time/place.

8. John McGraw (PHOM 2008) – Would be second on the ballot using DanR’s numbers only and be close, but off ballot using WS. Both find he had a great peak.

9. Don Newcombe (PHOM 1994) - Credit for minor league years and Korea. Yes, the ERA+ were not that high, but the innings pitched were great. I give MiL credit for 1947, 1948, and 4 starts worth in 1949.
Top 5 starter in league in 1949, 1950, 1951, (Korea 1952, 1953), 1955, 1956, 1959
Rank in league/majors: 4th/9th t (1st t/5th t with MiL credit), 4th/8th, 5th/9th, 2nd/2nd, 1st/2nd, 5th/9th. Also, Korean War Credit for 1952 and 1953 at 22 WS and 23 WS gives 2 more top 4 years. For a total of 6 plus two fifths.

10. Bus Clarkson (PHOM 2000) - ranking is based on the revised MLEs. He could hit. He could field well enough. Career hampered by the integration-era destruction of the NeLs and quotas. Dropped him a bit, because of concerns about the translated late peak.
   103. mulder & scully Posted: December 03, 2007 at 08:20 PM (#2632534)
I think numbers 1 through 10 were eaten. I cleared my cookies are refreshed, but it doesn't show up. Sorry for the double post.

2008 Ballot: Tim Raines is an easy PHOM. John McGraw gets one of my last four spots (2 in 2006 and 2 in 2008). Other candidates include Lundy, Pesky, Saberhagen, or one of the past Homer, NotPHOMers.

Here are the factors I consider: A mix of Win Shares and DanR’s WARP. Shortstops do very well in Dan’s system, but I also consider ranking within each position separately.
1. 7 year prime
2. 3 years consecutive peak
3. rank within era and position
4. career
5. per season of 648 PA - benefits players like Chance, hurts those who played in high offense eras like the 1890s
I give bonus for being an all-star by win shares or STATS or DanR WARP
I include time missed for WWI and II in most cases.
I include time in high minors if a player is blocked because of when he played - independent minors.
I include time for some suspensions: Charley Jones - yes, Joe Jackson - no
I believe in MLEs for skin color.

1. Tim Raines (PHOM 2008) – Having grown up in San Diego during the 1980s, it is emotionally tough to recognize him as the equal of Gwynn, but he was, just accumulated the value differently. I remember starting to read Bill James’ Abstract in 1984 so I always thought Raines was a great player during the mid-80s, but the decline/injuries/changes in the game made me forget how good he really was.

2. Tommy Leach (PHOM 1966) - Great defense at third and CF - gold glove level at both. A key player in one of the best defensive teams ever. Top 15 if whole career is at 3rd and top 25 in CF if whole career was there. Split the difference and he is about even with Hack and Sutton (w/o NA credit).
Top 10 in league in 1902, 1904, 1907, 1908, 1909, 1913, 1914. Rank in league/majors: 4th/5th, 14th in 1903 but 9 are outfielders, 6th t/16th t, 3rd t/7th t, 4th/9th, 7th/11th, 4th t/12th t, 4th/9th.
Best in league at 3rd: 1902, 1903, 1904. Best in majors: 1902.
Top 3 in league in outfield: 1907, 1913, 1914. 4th by one WS in 1909.
WARP really supports how impressive his defense was.

3. Bucky Walters (PHOM 1958) - Great peak. This ranking includes deductions for 1943-45. Best peak available (tied with Dean) among eligible white pitchers. Best NL pitcher in 1939, 1940, and 1944. 2nd in NL by a hair in 1941. Best in Majors in 1939, top 4 in other 3 years.

4. Mickey Welch (PHOM 1901) - I think we missed on him. Of the great pre-60' pitchers, he had some of the worst run and defensive support - compare to Clarkson or Radbourn or Keefe (when he wasn't with NY). Chris J.'s run support index shows that his wins are real. Also, beat opposing HoMers like a drum.

5. Hugh Duffy (PHOM 1919) - Great defender. Great prime and peak. All-star 5 times. twice best in league. Moved to LF because McCarthy couldn't hit anymore and you needed two CF in Boston's park - see SABR's new stadium book. Not at the level of several HOM 90s outfielders but comfortably above the CF standards.
A key member of the best team of the 1890s. Please see the Keltner List for him. Ranks in a group of 5 center fielders between 13th and 17th all-time. Doby, Hill, and Brown are in the HoM, Browning is not. Top 10 in 1890, 1891, 1892, 1893, 1894, and 1897. 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 1st, 1st, and 8th. 11th in 1895.

6. Vic Willis (PHOM 1942) - Best pitcher in NL two times, second best in NL two times. Almost even with McGinnity. 4 times one of the top 2 pitchers in the National League. Best in NL in 1899 and 1901, 2nd in 1902 and 1906. Top 10 most every other year.

7. Gavy Cravath (PHOM 1979) - All players, All times. All-Star 5 times by STATS and Win Shares. Top ten position player in NL in 1913 - 1917. 1st, 3rd, 1st, 6th, 7th. A top 10 player in either league from 1909-1911 while with Minneapolis. Great peak and prime - 7 times an all-star including 1910 and 1911. Unique career that was a result of his time/place.

8. John McGraw (PHOM 2008) – Would be second on the ballot using DanR’s numbers only and be close, but off ballot using WS. Both find he had a great peak.

9. Don Newcombe (PHOM 1994) - Credit for minor league years and Korea. Yes, the ERA+ were not that high, but the innings pitched were great. I give MiL credit for 1947, 1948, and 4 starts worth in 1949.
Top 5 starter in league in 1949, 1950, 1951, (Korea 1952, 1953), 1955, 1956, 1959
Rank in league/majors: 4th/9th t (1st t/5th t with MiL credit), 4th/8th, 5th/9th, 2nd/2nd, 1st/2nd, 5th/9th. Also, Korean War Credit for 1952 and 1953 at 22 WS and 23 WS gives 2 more top 4 years. For a total of 6 plus two fifths.

10. Bus Clarkson (PHOM 2000) - ranking is based on the revised MLEs. He could hit. He could field well enough. Career hampered by the integration-era destruction of the NeLs and quotas. Dropped him a bit, because of concerns about the translated late peak.
   104. mulder & scully Posted: December 03, 2007 at 08:21 PM (#2632537)
Frelling Frak
   105. mulder & scully Posted: December 03, 2007 at 08:32 PM (#2632561)
11. George Burns (PHOM 1938) - Did everything well. Took a huge number of walks. Hit for good power. Never missed a game. Scored a lot of runs. Top 10 in NL in 1913, 1914, 1915, 1916, 1917, 1918, 1919, 1920. Rank in league/majors: 8th/20, 1st/4th, 7th/13th, 9th/17th, 3rd/5th, 3rd/8th, 2nd/4th, 7th/17th. 1921-23 in NL only: 14th, 18th, 15th.
Top 3 in NL outfield in 1913-15, 1917-19. Top 3 in majors in 1914, 17, 19.

12. Wilbur Cooper (PHOM 1985) - An all-star 8 times. He and Bunning are very similar, but Bunning is slightly better in several ways.
Top 5 in league/majors: 1917, 1918, 1919, 1920, 1921, 1922, 1923, 1924. 4th/NR, 4th/NR, 5th/NR, 3rd/5th, 2nd/6th, 1st/3rd, 5th/NR, 2nd/5th. Plus a 6th in 1916.

13. Jack Fournier (PHOM 1997): Noticed that I forgotten about him when he is given appropriate credit for 1917, 1918, and 1919. Remember he did have a 142 OPS+ for his career.
Top 10 in league in 1915, 1918 (minor league credit) 1921, 1923, 1924, 1925. Rank in league/majors: 5th t/7th t, (9th/17th), 5th t/14th t, 5th t/10th t, 3rd/4th, 3rd/6th.
Best first baseman in league: 1915, 1921, 1923, 1924, 1925. Best in majors: 1915, 1923, 1924, 1925.
I believe the MLEs for Fournier are too low because they give him OPS+ of 117, 137, and 122 at ages 27, 28, 29. Those would be his 8th/10th/and 11th highest OPS+ for his career. He may not have set career highs but I think they would have been more line with his career.
Boosted onto the ballot by after finishing the DanR adjustments for 1917-1919.

14. Dick Lundy – The revised MLEs get him on the ballot. Bobby Wallace never made my PHOM using Win Shares. Using the compromise numbers would bring BW close to PHOM. I haven’t inducted my final 4 to the PHOM yet (2 in 06, 2 this year)

15. Johnny Pesky – Finished doing some WWII credits with DanR’s WARP. I checked Rizzuto, but Pesky had a higher peak and bigger prime. With Win Shares, he was a top 40 player, but with conservative credit in Dan's WARP, he really jumps.

16. Frank Chance (PHOM 1985) - Best peak and prime by a first baseman between Connor/ Brouthers and Gehrig. Top 10 in league: 1903, 1904, 1905, 1906, 1907. Rank in league/majors: 3rd/3rd t, 2nd/5th t, 8th t/15th t, 3rd/4th, 6th t/15th t. Best first baseman in league and majors in 1903-1907, league 1908.

17. Burleigh Grimes (PHOM 1961) – I like him better than Faber, Rixey, and Ruffing. Top 5 in league/majors: 1918, 1920, 1921, 1924, 1928, 1929. 2nd/5th t, 2nd/3rd t, 1st/4th t, 3rd t/NR, 2nd t/2nd t, 2nd t/NR.

18. Bret Saberhagen – I didn’t think he had done enough to be elected, but the comparisons to Dave Stieb have made me reconsider. A conservative early placement. Could move up to the ballot next year.

19. Elston Howard (PHOM 1994): I kept overlooking him. I am giving more of a benefit of the doubt about his opporunity issues: Korea, race. Catcher bonus.
Top 10 in league in 1961, 1963, 1964
Rank in league/majors: 6th t/11th t, 3rd t/12th t, 3rd/8th.
Best catcher in league in 1961, 1963, 1964. In majors in 1961, 1963, 1964.

20. Dale Murphy (PHOM 2002): Member of the Wile E. Coyote School of Career Paths (Jimmy Ryan a charter member). CF is a tough position. There are the obvious: Cobb, Speaker, Charleston, Mantle, DiMaggio, Griffey, Snider, Stearnes, Torriente, and Hamilton (in some order) then what? In a knot of players at the edge of CFers. Definitely ahead of Carey and Ashburn though.
All-Star in NL: 1980, 1982, 1983, 1984, 1987. All-Star in majors: 1982, 1983, 1984, 1987
Top 15 in NL/majors: 1980, 1982, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1986, 1987
Rank: 4th/10th, 2nd/3rd, 2nd t/5th t, 2nd t/4th t, 5th/8th t, 15th t/NR, 6th t/9th t.
   106. mulder & scully Posted: December 03, 2007 at 08:33 PM (#2632564)
21. Phil Rizzuto. Big move up.

22. Reggie Smith: DanR move-up. The lack of playing time hurts him. Career totals and rate are very good, but don’t push him over the hump.

23. Larry Doyle (PHOM 1987): Great hitter at second. Defense left something to be desired. McGraw usually knew what he was doing. Maybe he did here too? Top 10 in league in 1909, 1910, 1911, 1912, 1913, 1915. Rank in league/majors: 4th t/8th t, 7th/11th, 4th/9th, 3rd/9th, 9th/22nd, 2nd/5th.
Best second baseman in league: 1909 (t), 1910, 1911, 1912, 1915, 1916 (t), 1917. Second best in majors to Collins in 1909, 1911, 1912, 1915. Third best in majors behind Collins and Lajoie in 1910.

24. Frank Howard (PHOM 2001): Career was mismanaged by the Dodgers, but at that point they had more talent than they knew what to do with.
Top 12/15 in league in 1962, 1965, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971. Rank in league/majors: 12th t/18th t, 8th t/22nd t, 6th t/14th t, 2nd/2nd, 4th t/8th t, 6th t/10th t, 15th t/33rd t.
Top 3 outfielder in league: 1968, 1969, 1970. Top 3 in majors: 1968, 1970.

25. Luke Easter: The ultimate what-if player.

26. Herman Long (PHOM 1997): Another key player on the 1890s Bostonians. Fantastic fielder. Need to review his defensive numbers. Top 10 in league in 1891, 1892, 1893 . Rank in league/majors: 2nd/3rd t, 6th, 3rd
Best shortstop in league/majors: 1891, 1893. Best in league: 1889.

27. Dick Redding (PHOM 1975): Not enough shoulder seasons to go with the big 4 years. I pulled the trigger too soon on him. Probably would make the PHOM in the last 5 years.

28. Bert Campaneris : DanR revision.

29. Al Rosen: What if...
Top 10 in league: 1950, 1951, 1952, 1953, 1954
Rank in league/majors: 4th t/7th t, 5th t/14th t, 3rd/5th, 1st/1st, 7th/14th.
Best third baseman in AL in 1950, 1952, 1953, 1954. Best in majors in 1950, 1952, 1953.

30. Ken Singleton: Slugging outfielder for Weaver’s Orioles. Career reputation is hindered by playing in a pitcher’s park in an average/slightly lower than average era for hitting.
Top 15 in league in: 1973, 1975, 1976, 1977, 1978, 1979, 1980,
Rank in league/majors: 9th t/13th t, 1st t/2nd t, 12th t/24th t, 2nd/2nd, 4th t/8th t, 3rd/5th, 7th t/12th t
Top 3 outfielder in league in 1975, 1977, 1978, 1979. In majors in 1975, 1977, 1979.
Could move up.

Others:

Bob Johnson: The 11th or so best hitter (not player, hitter) in the AL in the 1930s. With the NeLer and NLers and pitchers included, he is not a top 30 player for a decade that already has the most HoMers. Everybody hit in the AL in the 1930s. Look how many top 100 OBP/SLG careers are centered in that decade from the AL.

Tony Perez: A couple of very good years as a third baseman then many average first baseman years (ie. performing as an average first baseman). Not in my top 50.
   107. Juan V Posted: December 03, 2007 at 08:33 PM (#2632567)
2008 Ballot. Sigh....

My old computer going kaput forced me to do some changes on my system. On offense, I now borrow heavily from Dan R's work, with some good old OPS+ thrown into it. For pitchers, I now use BPro's DERA and NRA, in a way similar to what I used for ERA+. I like these changes since they make my rankings closer to my personal definition of merit, weaves me mostly off the more flawed traditional uberstats, and would make my life easier for the MMP project. For both systems, I use a JAWS-like formula to combine peak and career.

I did lose my PHOM, however. I will rebuild it based on these new systems after this vote.

1-TIM RAINES: A walk is not as good as a single, but a walk + a stolen base is. Hence, I rank him over Gwynn. Easy #1

2-FRED DUNLAP: A shame that I only made all these changes for our final tri-weekly election, but I might have found my "Beckley" in him.

Of course, the bulk of his case is in that 1884 monstrosity, which would be in the "best individual season ever" discussion if made in a "major" (no translations or discounts necessary) league. Sure, the UA discount takes a lot of air out of that, but even a 50% discount makes it an amazing season.

But even immediately before and after brutalizing the UA he was an excellent player, providing 10 WARP seasons four times (the schedule length adjustment and the timeline roughly cancel each other out in the translation to WARP3). Sure, he declined quickly after that, but that still makes the best peak available.

3-VIC WILLIS: He has the career value of a Cone, a Tiant or a Saberhagen, but crammed into less seasons and more IP per season, which adds up to a better peak. While I do believe in some adjustment for big-IP seasons, I also think that, all else being equal, more is better.

4-BRET SABERHAGEN: A less consistent peak than Willis, so he goes a step below. Still, those odd-numbered years in the 80s were pretty good to start a HOM case with.

5-DAVID CONCEPCION: I believe that something systematic was going on with shortstops in the 70's and 80's, so his offensive numbers gain extra value because of that. And plenty of glove goodness too. Venezuelan pride! ;-)

6-ALBERT BELLE: Pretty nice hitter for a while. Enough bat-driven peak to ignore the lack of career IMO.

7-EDDIE CICOTTE: He put together a pretty strong peak, comparable to a Saberhagen, and was still going strong when he was kicked out. What if? Then again, he asked for it...

8-LUIS TIANT: A bit down from my earlier rankings (mostly because of other pitchers moving up, rather than him moving down), but still pretty good. Excellent at unearned run prevention, compared to his era.

9-PHIL RIZZUTO: A pretty big jump for him. His malaria (which led me to revise his war credit allocation) and the excellent defense confirmed by Dan's WAR boost him up to here.

10-DAVID CONE: Saberhagen, with a lower peak.

11-JOHN MCGRAW: I'll climb on the bandwagon. I usually like players who can stay in the lineup, but his combination of skills is so good that he can get past this limitation.

12-BOB JOHNSON: A bit of a weird candidate, since he doesn't fit the traditional stereotypes of peak and career. He does seem have the best defense among backlog bats (except those who played a glove/hybrid position regularly, like Reggie Smith).

13-TOMMY LEACH: A bit of a surprise coming from my revamped system, but I feel that I've missed on a great player all this time. His case is on his 3B years, specially with his baserunning and defense at the position. Fell off considerably once he moved to the outfield.

14-BRUCE SUTTER: The biggest surprise for me here. But he has a pretty good peak underlined by 1977 (107.3 relief innings of a 1.34 ERA? Awesome)

15-REGGIE SMITH: While he had trouble staying in the lineup, it was not as bad as McGraw's issues. Then again, he wasn't as good while he played as McGraw. Still pretty nice for the HOM. More than just a "win shares-y" candidate.
   108. Juan V Posted: December 03, 2007 at 08:44 PM (#2632588)
Rest of top 50-ish and disclosures

16-Bus Clarkson
17-Dale Murphy
18-Bobby Bonds
19-Buddy Bell
20-Wally Schang
21-Bobby Veach
22-Rick Reuschel
23-Ned Williamson
24-Gavvy Cravath
25-Jim McCormick
26-Ron Cey
27-Urban Shocker
28-Tommy Bond
29-Norm Cash
30-Gene Tenace
31-Chuck Klein
32-Tony Perez
33-Dagoberto Campaneris
34-Dizzy Dean
35-Ernie Lombardi
36-Mickey Welch
37-Cesar Cedeno
38-Ben Taylor
39-Ken Singleton
40-Thurman Munson
41-Pie Traynor
42-Dave Bancroft
43-KIRBY PUCKETT: Nice player while he was active, but I don't see his HOM case. Dale Murphy seems to be an improved version of him.
44-Paul O'Neill
45-Tony Fernandez
46-Jack Quinn
47-Jim Fregosi
48-Tommy Bridges
49-Dick Lundy
50-Lefty Gomez
51-Addie Joss
52-Toby Harrah
53-Virgil Trucks

Cannonball Dick Redding ranks about 75th. There is a lot we don't have on him, and what we have isn't enough to suggest a HOM case by itself.

Bucky Walters would be a big mistake, IMO. He had a couple of nice seasons, but when you add up all the negatives (the war, the high proportion of unearned runs, the defenses behind him), his case ends up deflated quite a bit. About 90th.
   109. SWW Posted: December 03, 2007 at 09:20 PM (#2632656)
Okay, just off the plane from Tucson...think I can just get this in before I go into another meeting...here goes...

So it has come to this. The end of the road. Last stop on the line. The big finish. Stick a fork in it, it’s done. (Well, until the next project comes along, anyway.) So I’ll do my darnedest to go out in style.

<u>2008 Ballot</u>
1) Timothy Raines – “Rock”
The class of this…um, class. Achievements include seven Top 10 WS season. Achievements do not include very impressive Monitor or Standards scores, which is undoubtedly why he’ll probably get the shaft from the BBWAA next month. Always nice to put another Expo cap in the HOM. 81st on Bill James Top 100.
2) Kirby Puckett
I know he’s considered overrated, but I still find him worthier of induction than most eligible candidates. Writers tend to overstate his career, overusing words like “stocky” and “fireplug”. But the man put up the numbers, with 6 Top 10 AL Win Shares seasons, and probably could have accumulated more (although I haven’t factored that in here). Also, if you’re like me and you ever ordered a McDonald’s Puck Pack, you’re still trying to burn that fat off. Sheesh. 86th on Sporting News Top 100. 95th on SABR Top 100. 98th on Bill James Top 100.
3) Burleigh Arland Grimes – “Ol’ Stubblebeard”
Not just a Favorite Teddy Bear, but a Cherished Heirloom, and my white whale. A successful pitcher with both a dead ball and a live one. Frequently one of the best pitchers in the league, and often the best pitcher on his team. Many comparisons to Early Wynn, whom we did elect, and most similar to Red Faber, whom we also elected. Obviously, if I were keeping a PHOM, he’d have been in it decades ago. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
4) Dale Bryan Murphy
6 Top 10 seasons in NL Win Shares. Some similarities to Hugh Duffy, but I like the arc of Murphy’s career better. New York Times Top 100.
5) Atanasio Perez Rigal – “Tony”
Similarities to Mark McGwire help his case. I think I’ve got Tony in the right place. 74th on Ken Shouler Top 100.
6) Carl William Mays
I have long considered Mays to be underrated, with better seasons and more milestones than more beloved candidates, like Luis Tiant and Billy Pierce. Whenever I go back and look at his numbers, I think that we’ve let someone slip through the cracks. I continue to harbor the suspicion that the ghost of Ray Chapman shrouds his achievements.
7) Orlando Manuel Cepeda Pennes – “Baby Bull”
Cepeda and Perez, together again. The biggest factor right now in my evaluation of Cepeda is the arrival on the ballot of Don Mattingly. They’re closer in merit than I realized, which is dragging them toward each other.
8) Louis Clark Brock
Reaffirming my status as a career voter. He does well in Black and Gray Ink (owing, no doubt, to his prowess on the basepaths), and his prime WS and Top 10 WS seasons are notable. He’s hanging in there. 42nd on Ken Shouler Top 100. 58th on Sporting News Top 100. 73rd on SABR Top 100. 77th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. New York Times Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
9) Daniel Joseph “Rusty” Staub – “Le Grand Orange”
His career numbers actually stand out more than I realized. 358 WS is nothing to sneeze at, but his 5-year prime of 145 WS is also a standout. Imagine if he’d spent his career with one great team. 96th on SABR Top 100. 97th on Ken Shouler Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
10) David Gene Parker – “Cobra”
A couple years ago, sunnyday noted my preference for career WS, and suggested that Parker makes more sense for a peak voter. Which I guess would be true, if his career numbers looked like, say, Chuck Klein’s. But he has more career WS than any other right fielder eligible except Staub (who was, of course, not exclusive to right field). His Black Ink trails only Klein and Cravath, his Gray Ink behind Klein, Oliva, Sam Rice, and Rocky Colavito. For a man who destroyed his career with addiction, Parker has remarkable career figures to show for it. I’m not going to be his pied piper, but I think he’s a lot better than his vote total would indicate.
11) Richard Lundy – “Dick”
Big debut. Finally managed to incorporate the new research on Lundy into my figures, and yeah, he belongs here. He’s significantly better than the best of the available shortstops, like Aparicio and Stephens. A proud rediscovery for this project.
12) Richard Redding – “Cannonball Dick”
Definitely the best remaining Negro League pitcher. That in and of itself may not merit his election. Hanging in there thanks to my support for Mays, who has a strikingly similar arc.
13) Donald Arthur Mattingly – “Donnie Baseball”
Considering the toll taken by injuries, he has surprising seasonal numbers, including ink. Compares quite favorably with Perez and Cepeda, but too short a career to hang out up near them. We’re certainly not hurting for first basemen. I will be very amused to see him in a Dodger uniform next year.
14) Edgar Charles Rice – “Sam”
Probably the most careerist vote on my ballot, I reckon. An impressive career considering his late start. The lack of peak always bothers me, and usually keeps him from getting any higher. Timelining might put Bonds of Singleton ahead of him.
15) Hugh Duffy
He just bounces up and down, and he’s back once more. He sort of reminds me of George Sisler, who I supported for a very long time. Similarities to Murphy are mentioned above; Murphy’s distinctly better.

<u>Other Top 10 Finishers</u>
Bret William Saberhagen
I think the reason Sabes reminds me of Dave Stieb is that they’re both pitchers I really liked a lot while they were active, and they’re the kinds of guys I would like to rate higher, and the electorate loves them, but when I run the numbers, I just can’t make it happen. They’re not impressive career-wise, but they’re not even that peakish, either. Even as a career voter, I have Dizzy Dean over Saberhagen.
Carl Reginald Smith – “Reggie”
As mentioned above, I have Parker ahead. I guess that’s that. Also behind Ken Singleton and Bobby Bonds, who I underrated.
William Henry Walters – “Bucky”
I’d think that fans of Walters would really admire Carl Mays’ career. And that’s just one more thing I’d be wrong about. I’ve got him above Saberhagen, too.
Thomas William Leach – “The Wee”
I have voted for him before, as he is the best remaining third baseman of his day, and he has the Win Shares that I enjoy. But he’s not that far above fellow hot corner denizens like Elliott, Bando, and Traynor. Each has their positives, but none of them is so strong that I feel compelled to place them on the ballot. Not this time, anyway.
Robert Lee Johnson – “Indian Bob”
Very good. Comes out similar to Heinie Manush, who I think is underrated, but still not quite ballot-worthy. Bob falls a little short.

And with that, I thank you all for letting me participate in this project. It’s been fun.
   110. Max Parkinson Posted: December 03, 2007 at 09:36 PM (#2632679)
2008 ballot

First, I want to thank Joe and John very much for all of their work on this project over the past 5(!?!) years. Also to the rest of the group, particularly those that I’ve had the opportunity to meet thanks to this endeavour, thank you. I’ve learned a bunch and had a blast.

I tend towards the peak/prime end of this group, with about half of the value players can earn in my system afforded to their best 7-9 or less years. My basic valuations are based on how well a player performs relative to his competition, although I also make allowances for offensive position - I like to have leadoff hitters, and power hitters, and basestealers, and glove guys. One significant way in which I may deviate from the consensus here is that I prefer guys who excel in one (but certainly more is good) facet of the game, where people here like to root for the all-rounders, possibly because they've been influenced by James, and believe that those guys are not sufficiently represented in the Coop.

Being the best Hitter, or Power Hitter, or a superlative glove man means something to me that being pretty good at everything doesn't. Hence I don't see Jimmy Wynn as very worthy, but apparently enough of you all do. Also, I’m less impressed with offensive players whose main talent was walking than the group as a whole (yest obviously aside) – players like Darrell Evans and Ken Singleton are much lower for me than the consensus.

I am pretty confident in my rankings of hitters against other hitters, and pitchers against other pitchers, and then try my best to fit them together...

Oh, and I don't give war credit - to this point, it's kept only Pee Wee Reese and Joe Gordon out of my Hall of Merit relative to the group's inductees.

1. Tim Raines

A truly great all-around outfielder, and a game changer on the basepaths. I see him as 7th-best LF to date, firmly between Al Simmons and Joe Jackson.

2. Dick Redding

A strong early peak and longish career helps to overcome the lackluster middle parts of his career.

3. Dizzy Dean

I agree with Marc – for voters who really value peaks, Dean is this projects biggest oversight.

4. John McGraw

If we were factoring in managerial success, he would have been in this hall as early as the ‘Coop. Alas, it’s looking tough for him here on playing alone. Not for me, though.

5. Dick Lundy

I am very glad that the MLE’s for Lundy match his reputation. The black Bobby Wallace is a great concept. He would have been the dominant glove man in the MLs, were he allowed to play.

6. Gavvy Cravath

Another adjustment. Was the best RF in the game for a good 6 year stretch, with MVP-calibre seasons thrown in. I have resisted adding too much credit for MiL performance, but I couldn’t keep him from the ballot any longer.

7. Bucky Walters

A very good peak, and good hitter to boot. He’s the edge right now for elected pitchers. I disagree with those who say that his candidacy is a figment of the war and defense – at least the war. He was the best pitcher in the NL from ’39 to ’41, at which time no baseballers had been drafted, and that is his case for me. Multiple MVPs, particularly those who win two games in the World Series during that stretch, should be in.

8. (N)Ed Williamson

Between McGraw and Williamson, we could shore up the 3B drought pretty quick.

9. Ben Taylor

A long career, great glove 1B who played between the ABC boys and Gehrig/Foxx. If we need to fill a positional gap, here’s your man.

10. Albert Belle

A terror with the bat. 103 Extra Base Hits in 143 games. Wow.

11. George Burns

Maybe I’m crazy, but if he had put up the exact same numbers, and been an average CF as opposed to a terrific LF (that is, no change to his talent or performance, just what was written on the lineup card), I think he’d be in already.

12. Bobby Veach

Someone here (DanG?) used to post lists of top OPS+ by time period. Of the 1900-1920 group, the only unelected members of the top 20 are Cravath (no. 1), and Veach

13. Don Newcombe

While I don’t give war credit for Korea, I believe that he would have contributed earlier than he did if not for the colour line. Alas, if he could have just got two more outs in his most famous outing, none of us would have ever said the name Bobby Thomson.

14. Jim Rice

Another great, great hitter. I fear that this is a case of stathead overreaction to the love of traditional (HR, RBI) measures. Ken Singleton does much better here than Rice, but I’d be shocked to find a GM at the time who would have traded them straight up.

15. Urban Shocker

Not gonna make my personal hall, but a pretty good career.


Others of Note:

Johnson – In the ‘30s along with Klein and Hack Wilson.

Puckett – I was surprised to find how low my system ranked him. The bonus that he gets for dragging two teams to World Series titles still only gets him into the ‘40s.

Ken Singleton – see Jim Rice comment. Another player who the statheads love due to the walks, but is very overrated just looking at RC or OPS.

Tommy Leach – He’s not in my Top 75. I guess that me and WS voters will have to agree to disagree on this one.

Saberhagen – He wouldn’t be the worst choice for a pitcher, but really? We’re about to elect a starting pitcher that cracked 250 IP three times. I mean if the people making loud noises about Walters….

Reggie Smith – Below Leach. I don’t see this one either.

Bob Johnson – That’s a good long prime. Unfortunately you can’t really pick a year where he was the best in his league at his position, let alone adding the NL and the NeLs… It’s just not a high enough peak for this guy.
   111. Esteban Rivera Posted: December 03, 2007 at 11:27 PM (#2632867)
2008 Ballot:

Thanks guys, this has been wonderful.

1. Tim Raines – His peak is impressive and, against this group of candidates, he stands out.

2. Bill Monroe - Seems to be one of the best second basemen of his time.

3. Hugh Duffy - His credentials are that he was for a time one of the best players and he produced during the 90's. Was an outstanding defensive outfielder.

4. Bob Johnson – Have been overlooking Indian Bob. PCL credit counterbalances any war discounts.

5. Mickey Welch - The 300 game winner. The discussion of the past couple of years has made me realize that Welch should be a HOMer. Is not that far behind Keefe.

6. Vic Willis – Blame the cohort analysis for making me take another look at Vic.

7. Bob Elliott – The post someone made about holding his outfield time against him was true in my case. Not as much an outfielder as I had previously thought.

8. Kirby Puckett - Basically a peak/prime vote. Does not have any filler years at beginning or end of career and his defense /offense combination for his position and era give him the edge over the other candidates.

9. Burleigh Grimes - Has enough big seasons and career bulk to edge him over other similar candidates.

10. Pie Traynor - I'll agree that he is not as great as the praises make him out to be but he still has a worthy resume.

11. Gavvy Cravath – One of the enigmas in terms of career interpretation. His career in the majors combined with my interpretation of the other information places him here.

12. Fred Dunlap – Chris Cobb’s study a few elections ago on the merits of Browning actually convinced me that I had Dunlap too low. Even with the discounted UA season he put quite a package together.

13. Tony Lazzeri – Agree with others that he has been somewhat overlooked by the electorate. Given credit for time in the PCL.

14. Dick Lundy – The revised numbers boost him onto my ballot.

15. Ed Williamson - Bubbled back up to the surface. Great thirdbase peak candidate on both offense and defense.

Not on ballot but made Top 10:

Bucky Walters – Actually not a bad candidate but the breaks don’t go his way (war years, sterling defenses) and are enough to keep him off my ballot for now.

Dick Redding – Too much uncertainty surrounding him to put him on my ballot.

Reggie Smith – The in-season durability issues are a factor for me.

Tommy Leach – In my top 25 but not close for a ballot spot.

Bret Saberhagen – Not enough innings pitched.

FIN
   112. Tiboreau Posted: December 03, 2007 at 11:50 PM (#2632894)
This has been a fun project. I've learned a lot about baseball history, and have enjoyed reading, and once in a blue moon participating in, engaging & thought-provoking discussions & debates. Thanks to those who spent so much time providing information, such as the MLEs; they were very helpful in formulating my ballots. And Much Thanks John Murphy for keeping the project going; sorry about all the late ballots. . . .

1. lf Tim Raines (nc)
2. 1b Luke Easter (4)—We know that he had a long career (records of play with top Negro League teams in late ‘30s, early ‘40s and continued to play in the minors until the early ‘60s). We know he had the potential for big play (1948 and, when healthy, ’52, ’56 and ’58). What we don’t know is how well he would have played in the first half of his career, during his twenties. Yet, as we dig deeper into the backlog I find myself more willing to elect a player with a good career who showed the potential for greatness than one with a long career of merely above average play or one with short period of definite greatness during an abbreviated career.
3. ss Dick Lundy (ob)—Over the past two weeks I’ve been reconsidering how I’ve viewed Negro League candidates; in the past I’ve mostly relied on Chris Cobb’s & Dr. Chaleeko’s MLEs, giving too little consideration to a player’s reputation. Particularly as a peak voter, I now think that this was a mistake: the small amount of season-by-season data isn’t enough to rely so heavily on MLEs. Lundy’s new MLEs point toward a rich man’s Dave Bancroft or a poor man’s Bobby Wallace: long career with a shallow, plateau-like peak. Considering Lundy’s reputation, the drawbacks to MLEs, and that Bancroft’s (his most direct comparable) poor peak was largely due to lack of durability, I think Lundy was a better player at his best than we’ve thought and worthy of induction into a large Hall.
4. sp Bret Saberhagen (5)—I did not realize how good Saberhagen was when at his best during the ‘80s. I would have him a bit lower, but I feel pitchers deserve more slack when it comes to inconsistency than position players.
5. 3b John McGraw (6)—Two great seasons surrounded by several more excellent yet injury-riddled years while playing a physically demanding (and underrepresented) position in a physically demanding era.
6. sp Dizzy Dean (7)—For five years he was among the greatest pitchers of all-time. Sadly, his career essentially comprises of those five years. The greatest peak among eligible pitching candidates.
7. sp Leroy Matlock (8)—Had a great peak, including 26 straight wins from ’34 to ’36. In fact, according to the MLEs Matlock’s peak (and career) was better than Dean’s; however, the difficulties of estimating season-by-season value of Negro League pitchers leads me to place Matlock below Dizzy.
8. cf Dale Murphy (9)—An excellent peak\prime during a time when it appeared so much harder to accomplish.
9. sp Urban Shocker (10)—Jumped back on my radar screen due to Joe Dimino’s pitcher numbers. Like the rest, short career but packed in quality seasons for the majority of that time. IMO, he’s similar to Dave Stieb, just a little less career value.
10. 3b Al Rosen (11)—Flip's candidacy is similar to Dean's: five excellent seasons without much else, his career cut short by Keltner at the front end and back injuries at opposite end.
11. rf Bobby Bonds (12)—Yes, another nice peak, shorter career candidate on my ballot; his peak value a little lower, his career value a little higher than the others. I view him similarly to Jimmy Wynn.
12. ss Johnny Pesky (14)—While I don’t want to give peak credit for war years, I don’t want to eliminate a candidate due to missed time either. Pesky’s WWII service, sandwiched by to 30+ WS seasons, deserves more credit than I gave it in the past, filling out his career value, strengthening his prime.
13. c Elston Howard (13)—His peak is slightly better than Bresnahan's, career slightly shorter. Looking over his case again after some discussion during the last election, I feel I was giving him too much pre-MLB credit; it was a few years before his translated MLEs looked good enough to establish notice and I'm not going to give much in terms of blocking credit.
14. rf Ken Singleton (15)—Singleton is one of the players who does it a bit better in one system than another. Going solely by Win Shares I'd have him ahead of Bonds, but by WARP he'd be a below him. I think this is mostly due to WARP's more aggressive stance on the importance of defense, so Bonds takes the upper hand.
15. 3b Ron Cey (ob)—The best ballplayer from those great Dodgers infields. He had a nice peak, although it was nothing earth-shattering, had a nice career, although it wasn’t Ryan-like; however, the combination of the two plus the position is enough to make my ballot.

Required Disclosures:
3b\cf Tommy Leach—If we had decided to do a 20-man ballot Tommy Leach would be on mine; he just doesn’t quite have enough peak to make my top 15.
sp Luis Tiant—Along with Reuschel, El Tiante makes my top 25. His candidacy his hurt by the number of competitors in his era.
sp Bucky Walters—It is a nice peak, but his overall value is a bit inflated due to the decreased competition during the war, and the excellent defense behind him during his peak.
rf Gavy Cravath—“He played ball, and lived his life, with a minimum amount of effort and nervous energy.” Cravath gets extra credit for his minor league performance, especially as the star of the Minneapolis Millers. Cactus Gavy was on my ballot for many “years,” but he was fallen off as I’ve tried to better incorporate defense and WARP into my ratings.
1b\3b Tony Perez—A great career candidate, but his peak wasn’t that good, particularly as a 1b, and a lot of his later years were simply filler.
sp Dick Redding—While he had a nice peak, in context it loses its impressiveness, and Cannonball Dick played at that level in too few years spread among too many poor seasons in a long career to be on my ballot.
rf/cf Reggie Smith—A good player for a long time; unfortunately, I don’t feel that he was good enough per season to make up for his lack of durability.
lf Bob Johnson—He did have a nice prime and he does deserve some credit for his play in the PCL, but Indian Bob just doesn't have a high enough peak for my taste, and isn't able to make up for that with a long enough career.
cf Kirby Puckett—A 1980/90s version of Indian Bob Johnson.
   113. sunnyday2 Posted: December 04, 2007 at 12:05 AM (#2632903)
Bucky Walters 1943-45 48-33, 2.87 (126) iin 299.1 IP
Hal Newhouser 1943-45 62-35, 2.36 (157) in 821.1 IP

Advantage Newhouser

Walters outside of the war years 150-127, (123 in prime years only) in 2405.1 IP
Newhouser outside of war years 145-115, (129) in 2171.2 IP

Just about the same pitcher

So overall, maybe that's advantage Newhouser. OTOH if you're a peak voter, just imagine if you will voting for Walters w/o war years. I can imagine that. Now, imagine voting for Newhouser w/o the war years. I cannot imagine that.

Walters won 20 games 3 X, led league in IP 3X, CG 3X, ShO 1X, ERA 2X, K 1X--all of those occurrences except one (12 of 13 events) 20 win season outside of the war years
Newhouser won 20 games 4X, led league in IP 1X, CG 2X, ShO 1X, K 2X, ERA 2X--all of those occurrences during the war (9 of 12 events) except 2 20 game win seasons, 1X led league in CG and ERA

Two eerily similar pitchers except that Prince Hal's case rests very largely on what he did during the war. Bucky's doesn't.
   114. sunnyday2 Posted: December 04, 2007 at 12:09 AM (#2632906)
That should be 699.1 IP during the war for Walters.
   115. mulder & scully Posted: December 04, 2007 at 12:59 AM (#2632944)
BALLOT CHANGE BALLOT CHANGE BALLOT CHANGE BALLOT CHANGE BALLOT CHANGE BALLOT CHANGE
BALLOT CHANGE BALLOT CHANGE BALLOT CHANGE BALLOT CHANGE BALLOT CHANGE BALLOT CHANGE

I have been doing a lot of thinking about this ballot (slow day at work). I looked at the stats of Saberhagen and Walters on baseballreference and looked at the arguments of Chris and DanR. Also, I recognized the similarities to Stieb who I had on the ballot at the bottom. I decided to move Saberhagen onto the ballot into Dick Lundy's spot. Lundy drops out upon reconsidering that I thought Bobby Wallace was a bad choice back when he was elected and I wasn't using WS then. Switch Lundy and Saberhagen please. While Saberhagen is 11 spaces away, there is very little difference between them. I am very sorry for the late decision.

REVISED BALLOT
1. Raines
2. Leach
3. Walters
4. Welch
5. Duffy
6. Willis
7. Cravath
8. McGraw
9. Newcombe
10. Clarkson
11. Burns
12. Cooper
13. Fournier
14. Saberhagen
15. Pesky

PS: I don't have a ballot counter.
   116. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: December 04, 2007 at 01:14 AM (#2632962)
My final ballot:

Since some people asked us to include what we consider . . . I try to look at it all. I'm a career voter mostly - not because I have any bias towards it, but just because the numbers (and every study I've ever seen) tell me that peaks are overrated and 5+5 is only about 10-15% less valuable than 10+0.

I give full war credit, and I think it's a major mistake not to when comparing players across eras. My biggest regret on this project is that we didn't require all voters to give war credit like we did with Negro League credit. I see no difference, both were a circumstance of the player's birthday that was beyond his control.

I also follow similar philosophy on strikes. I think it's a cop out to say we don't know so it's a zero. If a guy was a 25 WS a year player before and after the war, a zero is a much bigger mistake than giving him three 25s. As far as injury you just credit a guy based on his playing time before and after the war. There's no reason to assume he would have been any more (or less) injury prone during those years.

I'll give minor league credit for players trapped - once they've had a 'here I am, let me play!' season.

Of late I've been much more hands on in rating the pitchers than the position players. I'm very confident in my pitcher rankings. My position player rankings are based largely on DanR's numbers.

I would like to add a huge thank you to all the contributors, lurkers and people who have helped out over the last 6+ real life years (and 111 elections). This project has gone beyond my wildest dreams in terms of what we've added to the overall knowledge base. I'm really floored by the whole thing.

And I'd especially like to thank John Murphy - without his work, this project would not be what it is.


1. Tim Raines LF (--) - Easy choice. One of the top 10 leftfielders in major league history. A major test for the BBWAA, as he was a superstar in the mid-80s, but lasted a very long time. I hope they remember Expo Tim Raines and not White Sox Tim Raines. Not that he wasn't good in the 1990s, but those years don't scream Hall of Fame like his record in the 1980s does.

2. Dick Lundy SS (4) - I'm now convinced he belongs. I think of him as similar to a guy like Pee Wee Reese or Boudreau with a longer career, in terms of value.

3. Rick Reuschel SP (5) - This ranking surprises me a great deal. It's one thing to 'discover' an Ezra Sutton (I mean as a group, not that I discovered him first or anything) who played 130 years ago. But Rick Reuschel was there, right before my very eyes. He pitched in the World Series for my favorite team when I was turning 9 years old. And I never had a clue he was this good.

My Pennants Added system, which accounts for fielding support, parks, bullpen support, etc.; shows him right behind Dazzy Vance, Ed Walsh and Amos Rusie, and ahead of Jim Bunning, Sandy Koufax and Juan Marichal.

He isn't peakless either. His top 4 years are similar to that of Ron Guidry or Mike Scott - both considered 'peak' candidates. His 1977 was every bit as valuable as Bunning's 1966. Bunning definitely has him beat in years 2-5, but Reuschel makes it up with more quality in the back end. I get them essentially equal, Reuschel was a little better inning for inning, Bunning had a higher peak, but in the end they even out.

I have Reuschel with a 115 DRA+ over 3745 tIP, Bunning was 113 over 3739 tIP. This is where I would have ranked Bunning, who sailed into the Hall of Merit, I have no issue putting Reuschel here.

Even when I take my numbers, but filter them through a Bill James-type NHBA scoring system (that heavily focuses on peak), Reuschel still comes out in a group with guys like Jim Palmer, Noodles Hahn, Eddie Rommel, Tex Hughson, Clark Griffith and Whitey Ford. Hahn, Rommel and Hughson all had very nice peaks.

Using a JAWS scoring system, he comes out in a group with Wes Ferrell, Jack Quinn, Palmer, Stan Coveleski, Red Faber and Urban Shocker.

I am saying that Reuschel was every bit as good as the Jims, Palmer and Bunning. The only difference between Palmer and Reuschel is park and defense. Reuschel's 1977 was better than any season Palmer had. Palmer, like Bunning was better than Reuschel in the 2-5 best seasons, but by less than a win a year, and over the course of their careers, Reuschel was better, 115 DRA+ to Palmer's 113 (in a similar number of innings, Palmer had 3781 tIP. He had the one great year, and was very good from 1973-81 and 1985, 1987-89. That's a record that not a lot of pitchers can match.

4. Jack Quinn SP (6) - I'm giving him credit for 1916-18 where he was pitching (quite well) in the PCL after the Federal League went belly-up. He gets a big leverage bonus for his nearly 800 IP of relief work at a LI of 1.26. Without any PCL credit I still have him between Bridges and Grimes.

5. David Cone SP (6/7) - Dan, I've considered your arguments in terms of standard deviation of era, but I've got Cone far enough ahead, and I think there's enough overlap to their careers that I'm sticking with Cone. I am keeping Reuschel above Cone, though my numbers say otherwise.

6. Phil Rizzuto SS (7) - Lost 3 prime years to WWII. I've quantified that better and he moves up further. Great defense, and a huge year in 1950 also. He looks even better than I realized with Dan's system and I'm moving him up accordingly. His death has nothing to do with this, other than that I looked him over again, and I liked what I saw. RIP Scooter.

7. Tommy John SP (8) - Tons of career value. I would probably be sick to my stomach if Jim Kaat (who did very well in the Veteran's Committee balloting this year) got in and John did not. On the surface (career W-L) they appear similar, but when you adjust for everything, they aren't close. I have John as similar to, but better than Burleigh Grimes - about 800 more translated IP, at a 106 rate instead of a 104 rate. That's more than enough to offset Grimes peak edge. I get John somewhere between Eppa Rixey/Red Faber and Grimes on the continuum. He's over the in/out line for me. I also give no extra credit for his poineering the surgery - someone had to be first.

8. Bert Campaneris SS (9) - Moves up this week with my retooling. .470 OWP, in an era where the average SS was at .372. Long (9625 PA) career as well, and a good fielder (62 FRAA). System says to rank him ahead of Concepcion pretty clearly.

9. Bret Saberhagen SP (10) - Great peak, others with similar years 1-4 are Phil Niekro, Don Drysdale and Joe McGinnity. Saberhagen tracks McGinnity for years 5-7 as well, though he can't keep pace with Niekro and Drysdale after year 4. I'm on record as saying McGinnity was a mistake, but Saberhagen has a lot better filler (128 career DRA+ vs. 115 in a similar number of translated IP), and he's definitely a better choice than McGinnity.

10. Urban Shocker SP (11) - Vaulted in 1981, with 1918 war credit (he was having a great year), and an adjustment for the AL being much better than the NL during his time. He was a great pitcher, peak guys should really look closer at him. He'd be a no brainer without his illness, which should not impact a peak vote.

11. Dave Concepcion SS (12) - Better than I realized, and was really hurt by the 1981 strike, which occurred during his best season (and a season where the Reds had the best record in baseball, but missed the playoffs). Still no Trammell or Ozzie, but a very good player indeed. We could do worse than induct him.

12. Tommy Bridges SP (13) - Unspectacular peak (although he would have won the 1936 AL Cy Young Award if it had been invented), but a lot of career value. War credit helps nudge him above Trout and Leonard. He could obviously still pitch when he left for the war, and was still good when he returned for a short time. I give him 2 years of credit at his 1941-43 level.

13. Tommy Leach 3B/CF (14) - I was a big fan of his awhile back, then he faded. He's back now, in no small part because of Dan R's work.

14. Gavy Cravath RF (15) - Either he was a freak of nature, or there's a lot missing. I vote for the latter. Check out his thread for deeper discussion of the specifics, including a great analysis from Gadfly. He's the kind of guy we were hoping to catch when we started this project.

15. Ben Taylor 1B (--) - Consider me convinced that he was really was a great hitter. I was underrating him. The Hall of Fame's Negro League Committee had access to a lot of data, and they chose to include him, in a group that we generally agreed with. That counts for something with me. I would have much preferred his election to that of Oms.

Mandatory comments:

Reggie Smith - While the seasonal durability is low, there's still a lot of value when he was on the field.

Bucky Walters - Big years, good hitter for a pitcher, career kind of short though. Basically tied with Newcombe.

Dick Redding - he was good, but I think we are overrating him. I can't see how he's better than Grimes.

Bob Johnson - He's in the mix - but slides down when you deflate his numbers from WWII. I've got him just below Smith without any deflation.

Kirby Puckett - Loved to watch him play, but there's just not enough there. DanR's numbers show him similar to Rizzuto - before giving any war credit.

Close to the ballot:

Position Players - Reggie Smith, Dave Bancroft, Buddy Bell, Toby Harrah, Bob Johnson, Brett Butler, Norm Cash, Thurman Munson, John McGraw, Bobby Bonds.

Pitchers - Don Newcombe, Burleigh Grimes, Bucky Walters, Luis Tiant, Virgil Trucks, Orel Hershiser, Dwight Gooden, Dennis Martinez, Lee Smith.

I still cannot believe this is my last ballot for a year, I honestly can't remember life without the Hall of Merit as an active activity.
   117. mulder & scully Posted: December 04, 2007 at 01:46 AM (#2632985)
My biggest regret is that we may have missed on George Scales. I know he played for in a hitters park for awhile, but his walks and power look legitimate. New job and life in general just prevented me from backing him. Second biggest regret is not being able to fully process all of DanR's material.
   118. KJOK Posted: December 04, 2007 at 01:48 AM (#2632987)
Added “Rosenheck Method” to using OWP w/playing time, Player Overall Wins Score, and defense (Win Shares/BP/Fielding Runs) for position players, applied to .500 baselines. Using Runs Saved Above Average, Player Overall WInsScore and Support Neutral Fibonacci Wins for Pitchers. For Position Players AND Pitchers, heavily weight comparison vs. contemporaries, and lightly look at WARP1 and Win Shares.

1. Tim Raines, LF. 39 POW, 390 Win Shares, 108 WARP1, 392 RCAP & .660 OWP in 10,359 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Tremendous offensive player.

2. JOHN McGRAW, 3B. 20 POW, 207 Win Shares, 78 WARP1, 459 RCAP & .727 OWP in 4,909 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Was CAREER ALL-TIME OBP% leader until Ruth qualifies in 1923, EVEN adjusting for League, and is STILL #3 behind Williams and Ruth. AND he played 3B, where offensive output was generally very low. Plus led his team to 3 consecutive championships. Oh, AND at least 2nd best 3B between 1875-1900!

3. REGGIE SMITH, CF/RF. 32 POW, 325 Win Shares, 99 WARP1, 281 RCAP & .653 OWP in 8,050 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Hit like a 1st baseman, yet could play multiple defensive positions well.

4. BOB JOHNSON, LF. 36 POW, 287 Win Shares, 102 WARP1, 319 RCAP & .651 OWP in 8,047 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Many many very very good seasons.

5. DAVE BANCROFT, SS. 36 POW, 269 Win Shares, 111 WARP1, 157 RCAP & .498 OWP in 8,244 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT. Similar to Bobby Wallace and Ozzie Smith – better hitter than Ozzie, and almost as great fielding - so surprised he’s not getting more votes.

6. TONY MULLANE, P.30 POW, 399 Win Shares, 89 WARP1, 241 RSAA, 240 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 118 ERA+ in 4,531(!) innings. He could hit a little too. Had a very good career AND some really good individual seasons. AA discount keeps him from being a TOP 2 ballot player.

7. BUS CLARKSON, SS/3B. Estimated 123 OPS+ over 8,478 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Hitting far exceeds guys like Marcelle, Dandridge, etc. Tore up the Texas League when he was older and the league was high quality.

8. DICK REDDING, P. 183 MLE Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 114 MLE ERA+ in 3,556 innings. Was the 2nd best Negro League Pitcher in his era, behind only Williams.

9. NORM CASH, 1B. 31 POW, 315 Win Shares, 102 WARP1, 295 RCAP & .671 OWP in 7,910 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Obviously underrated player who just needs more in-season PT to make a high ballot slot.

10. FRANK CHANCE, 1B. 23 POW, 237 Win Shares, 72 WARP1, 308 RCAP & .720 OWP in 5,099 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Excellent hitter and good fielder back when 1st base was MUCH more important defensively. Top seasons better than Beckley’s best. Deadball era offensive stars continue to get no respect….

11. GENE TENACE, C/1B. 26 POW, 231 Win Shares, 73 WARP1, 244 RCAP & .670 OWP in 5,525 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Highly underrated. Catchers who could hit are historically rare.

12. PHIL RIZZUTO, SS 19 POW, 231 Win Shares, 74 WARP1, 67 RCAP & .494 OWP in 6,710 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT. Defense, War Credit, and Postion moved him up.

13. BERT CAMPANERIS, SS 14 POW, 280 Win Shares, 90 WARP1, 149 RCAP & .470 OWP in 9,625 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Convinced better than Concepcion & Fregosi.

14. DAVE CONCEPCION, SS 18 POW, 269 Win Shares, 100 WARP1, 126 RCAP & .425 OWP in 9,640 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT. Right up with Ozzie defensively.

15. JIM FREGOSI, SS. 26 POW, 261 Win Shares, 76 WARP1, 203 RCAP & .565 OWP in 7,402 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Just needs a little more something – defense, or career length, etc. – but still historically underrated, and perhaps just as good as Dobie Moore and Concepcion.

LEFT OFF THE BALLOT:

NEWBIES OF NOTE:
NONE besides Raines
RETURNEES:

BRET SABERHAGEN, P.28 POW, 193 Win Shares, 88 WARP1, 241 RSAA, 167 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 126 ERA+ in 2,563 innings. Three really good years, but too many injury or sub-par years beyond that.

BUCKY WALTERS, P.25 POW, 89 WARP1, 161 RSAA, 166 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 115 ERA+ in 3,104 innings. Hitting helps him, but doesn’t quite stack up to other pitchers

TOMMY LEACH, CF/3B. .552 OWP, 121 RCAP, 9,051 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT – 3B, VERY GOOD – CF. Just slightly below Collins defensively, and he played longer. Basically did everything well, but doesn’t have the one outstanding area to get noticed.

KIRBY PUCKETT, CF. 24 POW, 281 Win Shares, 81 WARP1, 209 RCAP & .602 OWP in 12,358 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Needs a little more value to be any higher.

GAVVY CRAVATH, RF. 18 POW, 202 Win Shares, 59 WARP1, 238 RCAP & .709 OWP in 4,644 PA’s. Def: FAIR. McGraw provided better offense in more MLB PA’s at a tougher position.

TONY PEREZ, 1B/3B. 10 POW, 349 Win Shares, 113 WARP1, 146 RCAP & .582 OWP in 10,861 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. I don’t see the love – had a few years at 3B that were not quite Rosen-esque, then became Beckley-lite. Perhaps most over-rated player ever.

LUIS TIANT, P.22 POW, 256 Win Shares, 102 WARP1, 172 RSAA, 185 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 114 ERA+ in 3,486 innings. Tough competition from contemporaries, and mid-career lull, keeps him off ballot.

DICK LUNDY, SS. Estimated around 100 OPS+ over 9,160 PA’s with at least VERY GOOD defense.

HUGH DUFFY, CF/LF. 5 POW, 95 WARP1, 154 RCAP & .623 OWP in 7,838 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Just not in the elite OF class offensively, and fielding runs doesn’t even like his defense (-31).

GEORGE VAN HALTREN, CF. 12 POW, 118 WARP1, 167 RCAP & .620 OWP in 8,992 PAs. Def: FAIR. He wasn’t that far above position offensively, and wasn’t that good defensively.
   119. Ken Fischer Posted: December 04, 2007 at 01:49 AM (#2632990)
2008 Ballot
Thanks Joe & John.
Congrats to Dick, Walter, Barney, Bowie and Billy.

1-Dick Redding
He is ranked by many as one of the top pitchers of the pre-Negro League days.

2-Tim Raines 390 WS
Overshadowed by Henderson…but one of the best in the 80s.

3-George Van Haltren 344 WS
His numbers deserve the high ranking.

4-Mickey Welch 354 WS
300+ wins are great in any era.

5-Carl Mays 256 WS
256 win shares in an offense dominated era is impressive.

6-Vern Stephens 265 WS
His comps are Doerr & Lazzeri but I believe he was better. A forerunner of the modern power hitting shortstop.

7-Wally Schang 245 WS
He played for several flag winners. Schang had great plate discipline. At the age of 39 he led the AL in HBP.

8-Bob Johnson 287 WS
A raw deal…Indian Bob will forever be hurt by playing for mostly bad teams and the overlapping eras he played in (Live Ball & War Years).

9-Tony Mullane 399 WS
Gray Ink 198. Late in his career won 25 games after the mound was moved. Too bad he was at the end.

10-Tony Perez 349 WS
A career pick for the volume of his work.

11-Luis Tiant 256 WS
Luis is a Cuban product of a later era. Comps include HOMers Bunning & Drysdale.

12-Lou Brock 348 WS
Great post season stats. SB given more value in his time.

13-Jim McCormick 334 WS
More Win Shares than Clark! Accomplished a lot in a short period of time. Maybe a poor man’s Bob Caruthers.

14-Reggie Smith

15-Bucky Walters 258 WS
Played for Billy Southworth in 1950s.

I rank Rice and Parker ahead of Puckett. I’m mainly a career voter and his short career doesn’t do as well in my evaluation.
I still don’t see Saberhagen as a HOMer. Still trying to figure him out.
   120. The Wilpons Must Go (Tom D) Posted: December 04, 2007 at 01:53 AM (#2632997)
Tom D. Ballot. Handle is a protest...

1. Tim Raines: Essentially blows away Brock, who is 3rd on my ballot. Impressed me as much as anyone when I got to see him play in person.

2. Tony Oliva: Did enough that I don’t need the filler seasons to build my opinion of him. All over the leader boards for eight years.

3. Lou Brock: Perhaps the worst of the 3000 hit club, but still a member.

4. Dizzy Dean: Had a few more top flight years than McLain but not as many as Koufax. 2.60 MVP shares.

5. Orlando Cepeda: Had one foot in the door before he was 26. He won an MVP after that.

6. Carl Mays: 81 games over .500 and a career 119 ERA+. B-R says he is the cousin of Joe Mays.

7. Indian Bob Johnson: Six years of 100 runs scored and seven years of 100 RBI. I’m comfortable.

8. Reggie Smith: Fine ball player for a lot of years.

9. Luis Tiant: Two-time ERA+ leader and four-time twenty game winner

10. Jim Kaat: Near the top of his league for maybe a decade.

11. Vern Stephens: Out of place in his era. The bat speaks for itself.

12. Chuck Klein: Look at the “Most Comparable by Age” on B-R.

13. Kirby Puckett: Needs a bit more career length for me.

14. Ken Singleton: 132 career OPS+.

15. Left Gomez: 125 career ERA+, 87 games over .500, consistent all-star.
   121. ronw Posted: December 04, 2007 at 01:55 AM (#2633001)
No yest for the final ballot?
   122. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: December 04, 2007 at 02:01 AM (#2633010)
The election is now over. Results will be posted at 10 PM EDT.
   123. DanG Posted: December 04, 2007 at 02:35 AM (#2633038)
Results will be posted at 10 PM EDT

Which is 9 PM EST.
   124. sunnyday2 Posted: December 04, 2007 at 03:03 AM (#2633077)
ronw, good catch. I was as bad as anybody, though not worse, about bashing yest's ballots. But I hope that all is well in the yest household. Wish U were here (with a ballot).
   125. sunnyday2 Posted: December 04, 2007 at 03:04 AM (#2633079)
BTW, if Lundy has been elected, and he is at least in the running, he jumped from 30 to 16 to possibly #2 or 3. Almost Nettle-ish.
   126. Patrick W Posted: December 04, 2007 at 03:08 AM (#2633085)
testing


ID Rk Year Voter Count Recent Last
1 1 1898 Howie Menckel 111 5 1
[\code]

This concludes our test
   127. Patrick W Posted: December 04, 2007 at 03:09 AM (#2633088)
   128. Patrick W Posted: December 04, 2007 at 03:10 AM (#2633091)
Well, maybe somebody else can edit this into a readable format...

[b] ID  Rk   Year   Voter   Count Recent Last [/b]
  1   1   1898   Howie Menckel   111   5 1
  2   2   1898   Andrew Siegel   111   5 1
  5   3   1898   Sean Gilman  111   5 1
 11   4   1898   Rick A    111   5 1
 13   5   1898   Rob Wood  111   5 1
 16   6   1898   Tom H  111   5 1
 23   7   1898   John Murphy  111   5 1
 24   8   1898   Al Peterson  111   5 1
 25   9   1898   jimd   111   5 1
 28  10   1898   Esteban Rivera  111   5 1
------------------------------------------------------------------- 
 
19  11   1898   dan b  110   5 1
 26  12   1898   Devin McCullen  110   5 1
 29  13   1898   Dan G  110   5 1
 18  14   1898   Adam Schafer    109   5 1
 35  15   1900   karlmagnus   109   5 1
 12  16   1898   KJOK   108   5 1
 21  17   1898   Joe Dimino   108   5 1
 33  18   1900   Rusty Priske    108   5 1
 41  19   1902   Chris Cobb   107   5 1
  8  20   1898   Marc 
(sunnyday2)   106   5 1
-------------------------------------------------------------------
 
46  21   1904   OCF    105   5 1
 34  22   1900   favre  104   5 1
 49  23   1906   Jim Sp 
(encer)  103   5 1
 32  24   1899   Ken Fischer  102   5 1
 22  25   1898   Jeff M  99   0 0
 53  26   1911   Ron Wargo 
(ronw98   5 1
 54  27   1911   Eric C  98   5 1
 51  28   1909   Patrick W  96   5 1
 57  29   1915   Daryn   94   5 1
 56  30   1913   yest    91   4 0
-------------------------------------------------------------------
 
61  31   1919   Don F   90   5 1
 66  32   1923   David Foss    86   5 1
 75  33   1930   Dr
.Chaleeko (Eric Chalek79   5 1
  3  34   1898   Mark McK 
(Dolf Lucky)  77   0 0
 77  35   1931   Brent   77   5 1
 78  36   1932   Thane of Bagarth 75   3 0
 80  37   1935   SWW  74   5 1
 83  38   1936   Andrew M   73   5 1
 74  39   1928   Kelly in SD 
(mulder scully)   71   4 1
 81  40   1935   jschmeagol 
(Mark Shirk)   71   3 0
-------------------------------------------------------------------
 
62  41   1919   Max Parkinson    70   4 1
  6  42   1898   Matt B 
(PhillyBooster66   0 0
 87  43   1941   Mike Webber   63   5 1
 68  44   1925   Michael Bass  62   0 0
 85  45   1939   Tiboreau   53   4 1
 92  46   1958   Mark Donelson    51   5 1
 59  47   1915   Brad G  50   0 0
  9  48   1898   Rob C   47   0 0
  7  49   1898   Philip  46   0 0
 90  50   1946   Trevor P   43   1 0
-------------------------------------------------------------------
 
93  51   1968   DL from MN    41   5 1
 94  52   1968   AJM  41   5 1
  4  53   1898   Carl Goetz 
(Carl G40   0 0
 17  54   1898   Brian H 
(odes)   37   0 0
 96  55   1972   rawagman 
(Ryan)  37   5 1
 20  56   1898   ed 
(TheGoodSamaritan)  36   0 0
 27  57   1898   Michael D  36   0 0
 97  58   1973   Chris Fluit   36   5 1
 98  59   1978   rico vanian   31   5 1
 36  60   1900   James Newburg 
(Flaxseed)  30   0 0
-------------------------------------------------------------------
 
71  61   1926   jhwinfrey  30   0 0
 60  62   1915   Chris J 
(Dag Nabbit of Schmuck29   0 0
 70  63   1925   Dan Rosenheck 
(Dan R)  28   5 1
101  64   1981   Got Melky
?    28   5 1
 10  65   1898   RMc  27   0 0
 91  66   1946   Gadfly  27   0 0
103  67   1982   Juan V  27   5 1
 86  68   1941   Ardo    26   0 0
 65  69   1922   Martin 
(mdb1mdb1)   25   0 0
100  70   1979   Joba Chamberlain 
('zop)   25   5 1
-------------------------------------------------------------------
 31  71   1899   Brad Harris   21   0 0
 40  72   1902   Clint   21   0 0
 48  73   1906   Yardape    20   0 0
 38  74   1902   redsox1912/2004  16   0 0
 73  75   1927   Guapo   16   0 0
102  76   1981   fra paolo  16   3 0
104  77   1988   Tom D   14   3 1
 82  78   1936   Buddha  13   0 0
 15  79   1898   thebigeasy    10   0 0
 43  80   1903   Jason Koral   10   0 0
-------------------------------------------------------------------
 89  81   1945   David C. Jones   10   0 0
 39  82   1902   John C   9   0 0
 58  83   1915   Sean (M)    9   0 0
 14  84   1898   David    8   0 0
 47  85   1904   Craig B  7   0 0
 99  86   1979   Vaux, A.B.D.   7   0 0
107  87   2003   Kenn  6   5 1
 30  88   1899   JP Caillault   5   0 0
 67  89   1924   stephen  5   0 0
 79  90   1933   Eric Enders    5   0 0
-------------------------------------------------------------------
 76  91   1931   BryceB (Tanketra) 4   0 0
 42  92   1902   chocaholic  3   0 0
 50  93   1908   Dr. Feelgood   3   0 0
 55  94   1911   Justin B    3   0 0
 72  95   1926   Seaver1969  3   0 0
 95  96   1969   caspian88   3   0 0
 37  97   1902   Rick G   2   0 0
 45  98   1903   Dean Carrano   2   0 0
 52  99   1909   Shawn Weaver   2   0 0
 63 100   1920   Lennox HC   2   0 0
-------------------------------------------------------------------
 69 101   1925   Zapatero    2   0 0
 88 102   1942   Bleacher    2   0 0
105 103   1990   Craig341    2   1 0
 44 104   1903   Silver King    1   0 0
 64 105   1921   Casey Elston   1   0 0
 84 106   1938   Erskine Thomason UBW 1   0 0
106 107   1990   rdfc  1   0 0 
   129. Patrick W Posted: December 04, 2007 at 03:19 AM (#2633099)
I'm hoping to start a trend, so that at the 15-Yr reunion, we'll identify ourselves by our ID#.
Let me know if I've put any of your various names into more than one row. Thanks,

#51
   130. Howie Menckel Posted: December 04, 2007 at 03:25 AM (#2633106)
#1 is liking this idea.
:)
   131. Howie Menckel Posted: December 04, 2007 at 03:36 AM (#2633123)
fun list

so as we kill time on the results, behold:
10 with all 111
24 with 100+
31 with 90+
32 with 80+
41 with 70+


all 111 votes (10) - Howie Menckel, Andrew Siegel, Sean Gilman, Rick A, Rob Wood, Tom H, John Murphy, Al Peterson, jimd, Esteban Rivera
110 votes (3) - dan b, Devin McCullen, Dan G
109 votes (2) - Adam Schafer, karlmagnus
108 votes (3) - KJOK, Joe Dimino, Rusty Priske
107 votes - Chris Cobb
106 votes - marc/sunnyday2
105 votes - OCF
104 votes - favre
103 votes - Jim Sp(encer)
102 votes - Ken Fischer

99 votes - Jeff M
98 votes - ronw(argo), Eric C
96 votes - Patrick W
94 votes - daryn
91 votes - yest
90 votes - Don F
86 votes - David Foss

70-79 votes - Dr Chaleeko/Eric Chalek 79, Mark McK/dolf lucky 77, Brent 77, Thane of Bagarth 75, SWW 74, Andrew M 73, kellyinSD/mulderandscully 71, jschmeagol/Mark Shirk 71, Max Parkinson 70
   132. Patrick W Posted: December 04, 2007 at 03:37 AM (#2633125)
We also could go by rank.

Lenny: We call each other by number, not by name. Carl is Number
Fourteen, I'm Number Twelve. Burnsie's Number 29.
Homer: [incredulous] _You_ outrank Mr. Burns here?
Lenny: Sure. Watch -- hey, 29, get over here!
[Burns walks over; Lenny pinches his nose]
Burns: [shudders] Thank you, Sir. May I have another?
[Lenny kicks him in the butt; he falls over]
[ominous] Patience, Monty...climb the ladder.


No. 28
   133. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: December 04, 2007 at 04:20 AM (#2633176)
Great list, Patrick!

The funny thing is if I had rediscovered the HoM just a week later in 2003, I would have missed that first election. I came on board after the election had already started (I wasn't involved in any of the discussions on the ballot discussion thread).
   134. jimd Posted: December 04, 2007 at 04:23 AM (#2633179)
Nice work Patrick.

I've been working on and off on a similar project with the voters.
(I got up to the 1960's and got side-tracked, and recently started again.)

I think (but I don't know for sure) that Sean and Sean M were two different voters. They never voted at the same time (though they did vote in adjacent years), but their ballots weren't that similar. Hardly conclusive though either way.

I'm pretty sure that "Erskine Thomason UBW" became Tiboreau the next year, but I'm not sure on that. He's still around so he can confirm or deny if he chooses.
   135. jimd Posted: December 04, 2007 at 04:25 AM (#2633180)
The median voter lasted 37 elections.

Pretty dedicated group.

107 participants total. I would have thought it was more when I started the tally.
   136. jimd Posted: December 04, 2007 at 04:31 AM (#2633187)
The average voter was here even longer, approximately 50 "years"
(by my back of the envelope estimate).
   137. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: December 04, 2007 at 04:50 AM (#2633210)
I'm pretty sure that "Erskine Thomason UBW" became Tiboreau the next year, but I'm not sure on that.


Erskine was actually ?ïß?rêŵ, Jim.

I think (but I don't know for sure) that Sean and Sean M were two different voters. They never voted at the same time (though they did vote in adjacent years), but their ballots weren't that similar. Hardly conclusive though either way.


I'm not sure myself.
   138. Patrick W Posted: December 04, 2007 at 05:13 AM (#2633228)
Fixed Tiboreau / Erskine. 106 voters now.

Average voter submitted 51.05 ballots, Voters who submitted at least once in the last 5 years submitted an average of 78.48 ballots, voters who submitted in 2008 averaged 81.94 ballots.

I'm pretty similar to you jimd. I had the list up through 1957, and had to go on a mad dash this last month to update the totals (for the last 2 years! - geez we've been at this awhile).

I've got the HOM Election History up to date through 1987 - which includes this voter roll. Once that file's complete (later this week?), I'll post it to the yahoo site.
   139. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: December 04, 2007 at 06:39 AM (#2633305)
OK, we can use the ID# for a generic identifer, but we can also just match our number with the last year's election for an interim nickname. So I'm Lou Brock, or Luis Tiant if we went by rank. Tiant's probably better, because I can get balls to go all over the place when I throw them - but I'd be a terrible base stealer.
   140. sunnyday2 Posted: December 04, 2007 at 06:58 AM (#2633339)
Devin, see if I understand.... I'm #8, same as my rank in my high school class BTW...and Cannonball Adderley, er, no, Redding finished #8 in the 2008 voting. So that makes me "Cannonball," is that right? I would be tempted to re-register as "Cannonball."
   141. Tiboreau Posted: December 04, 2007 at 07:04 AM (#2633350)
When Baseball Primer became Baseball Think Factory I originally tried to register as the name I had used prior to the switch: Tiboreau. Something went wrong, however, I don't remember what anymore. So, I started a new account as "The Erskine Thomason of UBW." When I started with this project I wanted my name, Tiboreau, so I asked Jim Furtado about it. It appeared that there was nothing wrong with my original account, though, and have used it ever since. Sorry for the confusion. . . .
   142. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: December 04, 2007 at 08:02 AM (#2633417)
"we want information, information, information."
"who are you?"
"the new number two."
"who is number one?"
"you are number six."
"i am not a number, i am a free man."
"HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA."
   143. sunnyday2 Posted: November 24, 2008 at 09:34 PM (#3015056)
bump
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