Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Hall of Merit > Discussion
Hall of Merit
— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best

Monday, December 31, 2007

2008 BBTF Hall of Fame Ballot

IMPORTANT: Please read:

This election should follow BBWAA rules, not Hall of Merit rules. However, we hope to see only players that each voter feels belong on their ballots - if you don’t feel he really is a HOFer, then please refrain from posting that player’s name (examples of whom I am referring to are Mookie Wilson, Scott Broscius, Buddy Biancalana - players who were well liked or were underdogs, but have no creditable HOF resume). Leaving 1st-year candidates off your ballot is also frowned upon. IOW, we would like to see an absence of some of the silliness that permeates Hall of Fame voting by the writers.

The election will end next Sunday (8 PM EST). Results will be posted at the same time.

Here are some of the rules by the BBWAA that pertain to our electorate:

3. Eligible Candidates — Candidates to be eligible must meet the following requirements:

A. A baseball player must have been active as a player in the Major Leagues at some time during a period beginning twenty (20) years before and ending five (5) years prior to election.
B. Player must have played in each of ten (10) Major League championship seasons, some part of which must have been within the period described in 3 (A).
C. Player shall have ceased to be an active player in the Major Leagues at least five (5) calendar years preceding the election but may be otherwise connected with baseball.
D. In case of the death of an active player or a player who has been retired for less than five (5) full years, a candidate who is otherwise eligible shall be eligible in the next regular election held at least six (6) months after the date of death or after the end of the five (5) year period, whichever occurs first.
E. Any player on Baseball’s ineligible list shall not be an eligible candidate.

4. Method of Election

A. BBWAA Screening Committee — A Screening Committee consisting of baseball writers will be appointed by the BBWAA. This Screening Committee shall consist of six members, with two members to be elected at each Annual Meeting for a three-year term. The duty of the Screening Committee shall be to prepare a ballot listing in alphabetical order eligible candidates who (1) received a vote on a minimum of five percent (5%) of the ballots cast in the preceding election or (2) are eligible for the first time and are nominated by any two of the six members of the BBWAA Screening Committee.
B. Electors may vote for as few as zero (0) and as many as ten (10) eligible candidates deemed worthy of election. Write-in votes are not permitted.+
C. Any candidate receiving votes on seventy-five percent (75%) of the ballots cast shall be elected to membership in the National Baseball Hall of Fame.

5. Voting — Voting shall be based upon the player’s record, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character, and contributions to the team(s) on which the player played.

Brady Anderson*, Harold Baines, Rod Beck*, Bert Blyleven, Dave Concepcion**, Andre Dawson, Shawon Dunston*, Chuck Finley*, Travis Fryman*, Rich Gossage, Tommy John, David Justice*, Chuck Knoblauch*, Don Mattingly, Mark McGwire, Jack Morris, Dale Murphy, Rob Nen*, Dave Parker, Tim Raines*, Jim Rice, Jose Rijo.*, Lee Smith, Todd Stottlemyre* and Alan Trammell.

+ Write-ins are allowed, but wont be included with the official tally.

* 1st-year candidates.

** Last year of eligibility.

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: December 31, 2007 at 12:20 AM | 201 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Related News:

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

Page 2 of 2 pages  < 1 2
   101. kwarren Posted: January 01, 2008 at 06:13 AM (#2657801)
John versus Blyleven

Blyleven - total Win Shares 338.6 - top 3 seasons - 28.8, 23.2, 22.5

John - 289.5 - 23.4, 18.8, 17.4

How is this even remotely close???
   102. kwarren Posted: January 01, 2008 at 06:19 AM (#2657805)
Someone who is a math guy might be able to better answer whether 66 games over .500 in 408 decisions is better than 37 games over through 537 dedcisions. I can't do that; it makes my head hurt.

Since pitchers don't "win" or "lose" games any more than catchers, shortstops, and centre fielders do the exercise wouldn't much anyway.
   103. Tony Ling Posted: January 01, 2008 at 06:40 AM (#2657810)
I wanna play!

Tony Ling, Tony Ling Sun-Times:

1. Bert Blyleven
2. Rich Gossage
3. Tommy John
4. Mark McGwire
5. Dale Murphy
6. Tim Raines
7. Alan Trammell

As you can see, I'm a "big Hall" kind of guy.
   104. HGM Posted: January 01, 2008 at 09:16 AM (#2657828)
This has now become a skill? It's about as repeatable from year to year as hitting HR(s) off the fair pole.

To be fair, they're talking specifically about one year, and while hitting with RISP isn't a repeatable skill, doing very well during one specific year certainly warrants a bump in the rankings when only ranking players of that year.
   105. booond Posted: January 01, 2008 at 09:27 AM (#2657830)
Blyleven
Raines
Gossage
Trammell
Sweet Lou Whitaker
   106. a bebop a rebop Posted: January 01, 2008 at 09:35 AM (#2657831)
Blyleven
Dawson
Gossage
McGwire
Murphy
Raines
Trammell
   107. kwarren Posted: January 01, 2008 at 09:53 AM (#2657832)
To be fair, they're talking specifically about one year, and while hitting with RISP isn't a repeatable skill, doing very well during one specific year certainly warrants a bump in the rankings when only ranking players of that year.


I'm not so sure we should be giving all that much credit to accomplishments that are clearly luck based, although Cy Young awards and MVP's are won that way all the time, so it is something we have to live with. But that doesn't mean we should but into it.


For example:

Blue Jay Pitcher - 18-6, 220 IP, 210 H, 40 BB, 190 K, 17 HR, 3.45 ERA

Yankee Pitcher - 21-9, 220 IP, 195 H, 70 BB, 140 K, 22 HR, 3.50 ERA

Yankee pitcher will win a landslide.


KC Royal (2b) - 290/390/480, 21 HR, 75 RBI, 60 K, FRAA +25, 34 Win Shares

Red Sock (lf) - 300/330/570, 40 HR, 120 RBI, 120 K, FRAA -18, 28 Win Shares

The poor Royal stiff won't get a sniff when it comes to MVP voting, even though he was clearly the better player, even over coming the significant luck advantage the Red Sock had in terms of BABIP and batting with RISP.

Then to top it off the HOF voters use the results of these ballots to then decide who to elect to the Hall of Fame. And great players lose MVP votes simply because their teams didn't make the playoffs.
   108. Wilver Posted: January 01, 2008 at 02:23 PM (#2657848)
Blyleven
Raines
Gossage
Lee Smith
McGwire
   109. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: January 01, 2008 at 02:27 PM (#2657850)
To be fair, they're talking specifically about one year, and while hitting with RISP isn't a repeatable skill, doing very well during one specific year certainly warrants a bump in the rankings when only ranking players of that year.


Exactly.
   110. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: January 01, 2008 at 03:02 PM (#2657856)
I'm not so sure we should be giving all that much credit to accomplishments that are clearly luck based,


You do know that Win Shares for the late Eighties and beyond gives credit for RISP, right?
   111. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: January 01, 2008 at 03:04 PM (#2657858)
For example:
Blue Jay Pitcher - 18-6, 220 IP, 210 H, 40 BB, 190 K, 17 HR, 3.45 ERA
Yankee Pitcher - 21-9, 220 IP, 195 H, 70 BB, 140 K, 22 HR, 3.50 ERA
Yankee pitcher will win a landslide.


The premise of the invisible "New York boost" at awards time has long since been beaten to death and dumped into an unmarked grave. Yankees pitchers have won 3 of the last 45 Cy Young Awards.

Blue Jay Pitcher - 22-7, 266 IP, 253 H, 32 BB, 204 K, 26 HR, 3.25 ERA
White Sox Pitcher - 21-9, 226 IP, 196 H, 56 BB, 207 K, 17 HR, 2.90 ERA
Red Sox Pitcher - 14-4, 187 IP, 147 H, 47 BB, 206 K, 7 HR, 2.22 ERA
Blue Jay pitcher won in a landslide.
   112. Howie Menckel Posted: January 01, 2008 at 04:22 PM (#2657874)
Right, I'd love to see a study that actually showed the biases that people claim out of thin air, or out of one cherry-picked example.

And Happy New Year!
   113. radioman Posted: January 01, 2008 at 05:46 PM (#2657893)
Raines
Gossage
   114. andrew siegel Posted: January 01, 2008 at 05:55 PM (#2657896)
The ones I always knew I would vote for (in rough order): Raines, McGwire. Blyleven, Trammell, Gossage.

The ones that I never voted for before but now add to my ballot because they are over the in/out line for my PHOM after going through the whole process (in rough order): Murphy, Dawson, Smith. [Isn't that the point of the whole project?]

Concepcion is within a few spots of the PHOM and might make my HOF ballot next year. None of the others are close.
   115. Daryn Posted: January 01, 2008 at 06:11 PM (#2657902)
McGwire
Raines
Blyleven
Dawson
John
Parker
Rice
Gossage

Trammell, I guess
   116. Dan Turkenkopf Posted: January 01, 2008 at 06:30 PM (#2657907)
In alphabetical order:

Blyleven
Dawson
Gossage
McGwire
Raines
Trammell
   117. Marc Sully's not booin'. He's Youkin'. Posted: January 01, 2008 at 06:33 PM (#2657909)
Tim Raines
Bert Blyleven
Alan Trammell
Goose Gossage
   118. sunnyday2 Posted: January 01, 2008 at 07:07 PM (#2657926)
while hitting with RISP isn't a repeatable skill,


So what if it's not a skill? We're supposed to elect guys on the basis of their skills? How about their value? How about what they do with that skill? Is hitting well with RISP no different than not hitting well with RISP?
   119. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: January 01, 2008 at 07:34 PM (#2657945)
Should we credit batters for bloop singles? What real skill is involved there?
   120. LargeBill Posted: January 01, 2008 at 07:55 PM (#2657956)
Blyleven
Gossage
Smith
Trammell
Raines

While many of us like to make fun of comments made by members of the BBWAA regarding their choices, it is equally amusing to read some of the comments defending choices made here.
   121. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: January 01, 2008 at 08:06 PM (#2657959)
While many of us like to make fun of comments made by members of the BBWAA regarding their choices, it is equally amusing to read some of the comments defending choices made here.


Since I voted for almost all of the same guys as you, am I excluded from that comment? :-)
   122. Juan V Posted: January 01, 2008 at 08:19 PM (#2657964)
Happy New Year folks!

I'm voting for the guys I support for the HOM, although the in/out borderline is still blurry to me. Ranking the players (I'll come up with comments later, if I can come up with something meaningful):

Raines
Trammell
Gossage
McGwire
Blyleven
Concepcion
Murphy

Dawson is next in line, but there is a significant gap between him and the ballot.
   123. kwarren Posted: January 01, 2008 at 08:29 PM (#2657968)

You do know that Win Shares for the late Eighties and beyond gives credit for RISP, right?


You're right. All hits that result in a runner scoring from second or third count as two hits. And if happens with two outs, then it counts as three hits. That's part of the Win Shares methodology.
   124. Esoteric Posted: January 01, 2008 at 08:29 PM (#2657969)
YEA:

1. Bert Blyleven
2. Tim Raines
3. Goose Gossage
4. Alan Trammell

NAY, UNTIL THE END OF TIME:

1. Mark McGwire
   125. Esoteric Posted: January 01, 2008 at 08:32 PM (#2657970)
YEA:

1. Bert Blyleven
2. Rich Gossage
3. Tim Raines
4. Alan Trammell

NAY, NEVER, NOT IN A THOUSAND YEARS:

1. Mark McGwire
   126. Esoteric Posted: January 01, 2008 at 08:33 PM (#2657971)
Crap, my first double post ever. Very sorry. It seeemed like the first one didn't show up.
   127. kwarren Posted: January 01, 2008 at 08:41 PM (#2657975)
Should we credit batters for bloop singles? What real skill is involved there?

Every batter gets bloop singles. If one gets more than his share it will lead to his BABIP being inordinately high, compared to his three-year average, and we can correctly deal with it as a measure of luck.
   128. Mike Emeigh Posted: January 01, 2008 at 08:46 PM (#2657976)
Every batter gets bloop singles. If one gets more than his share it will lead to his BABIP being inordinately high, compared to his three-year average, and we can correctly deal with it as a measure of luck.


But it may not BE a matter of "luck"; bloop hits may very well be a measure of the batter's skill in making contact with pitches that other hitters would miss or pop up to the infield.

-- MWE
   129. HGM Posted: January 01, 2008 at 08:47 PM (#2657978)
Let's take BABIP for a second. It's got some repeatability, but, as we see with Jorge Posada and Magglio Ordonez, is prone to one-year fluctuations. Does that make those players less valuable, when ranking players in 2007? I would hope not. Now, I certainly wouldn't add much weight to hitting with RISP, but for any given year, I do believe that it should slightly affect the rankings.
   130. a bebop a rebop Posted: January 01, 2008 at 09:04 PM (#2657982)
Crap, my first double post ever. Very sorry.


In light of your McGwire vote, I'd say it was RDF.
   131. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: January 01, 2008 at 09:27 PM (#2657995)
You're right. All hits that result in a runner scoring from second or third count as two hits. And if happens with two outs, then it counts as three hits. That's part of the Win Shares methodology.


Actually, that's not the case, but you know that already, I assume.
   132. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: January 01, 2008 at 09:32 PM (#2657996)
But it may not BE a matter of "luck"; bloop hits may very well be a measure of the batter's skill in making contact with pitches that other hitters would miss or pop up to the infield.


You're right, Mike, but I don't think batters actively attempt to hit Texas Leaguers. Not that they shouldn't be credited for them when they do hit them, of course.
   133. Chris Cobb Posted: January 01, 2008 at 11:15 PM (#2658032)
In Rank Order:

1) Tim Raines. Hall of Fame comps: Al Kaline, Frankie Frisch. Raines is an upper-half of the Hall of Fame player, at least. Great peak, excellent career.
2) Bert Blyleven. Hall of Fame comps: Gaylord Perry, Phil Niekro. Blyleven lacks the 300 wins, and maybe with his talent he should have won 300. But it's ridiculous to keep him out of the Hall of Fame for that reason. He may not have been as good as he could have been, but he was still way better than a lot of pitchers in the Hall of Fame.
3) Mark McGwire. Hall of Fame comps: Harmon Killebrew, Harry Heilmann. One of the great power hitters in baseball history. I don't moralize about the steroids. If I did, I'd simply stop caring about professional athletics.
4) Alan Trammell. Hall of Fame comps: Joe Sewell, Lou Boudreau. Better than Sewell, not as good as Boudreau, but they are both solid HoFers, and so is Trammell.
5) Goose Gossage. Hall of Fame comp: Dennis Eckersley. It's still hard to see exactly what the Hall of Fame standard for relief pitchers should be, but Gossage was definitely the best of his generation. A dominating pitcher.
6) Andre Dawson. Hall of Fame comps: Zack Wheat, Edd Roush. Has everything except OBP.
7) Tommy John. Hall of Fame comps: Red Faber, Eppa Rixey. A career candidate, but it was a truly fine career. John was very good for a very long time.
8) Dave Concepcion. Hall of Fame comps: Dave Bancroft, Phil Rizzuto. Borderline but in.
9) Dale Murphy. Hall of Fame comps: Kiki Cuyler, Earl Averill. Borderline but out, but close enough to get a "keep him on the ballot" vote.
10) Lee Smith. Hall of Fame comp: Bruce Sutter. Smith was better than Sutter, who was a mistake. I don't think Smith should be in, but he should stay on the ballot so that voters don't forget about him when the next relief pitcher comes along.
   134. Adam Schafer Posted: January 01, 2008 at 11:58 PM (#2658041)
in no particular order
Blyleven
Raines
Gossage
Trammell
Smith
McGwire
   135. Patrick W Posted: January 02, 2008 at 12:07 AM (#2658042)
I prefer to max out the ballot, trying to offset those who would submit a ballot with 0 or 1 names. The dangers of electing ten in a given year are practically nil, and it keeps with my preference for a large Hall. All ten have made my Hall through 2008.

1. Bert Blyleven – Exhibit B on the reason for the HOM project. Exhibit A is on the Vet’s ballot every other year. Ranked #5 amongst all retirees since 1994.

--- Top 25% of HOMers ---

2. Alan Trammell – Do you think Detroit’s success last year will help the HOF support of recent Tigers? Or not, seeing as he was the previous manager? #14
3. Tim Raines – Reading the articles about Raines from the HOF writers these past weeks justifies my belief that the HOF no longer matters, now that the HOM is complete. #16
4. Mark McGwire – Injuries prevent him from being any higher, but he’s the 3rd automatic pick from the newly eligible. I respect him more for his performance at that sham of a Congressional hearing, not less. #23

--- Top 50% of HOMers ---

5. Andre Dawson – Possibly my favorite chapter of Paths to Glory was on the late 70s / early 80s Expos. Interesting team before my time. No WS appearances in a small market, so stories have not been told about them.
6. Rich Gossage – If Sutter can make it, Gossage is an easy call.
7. Tommy John – A quarter century of average manages to build an impressive resume.
8. Lee Smith – Less than the Goose, but I can’t see putting Gossage on the ballot & leaving Smith off.
9. Chuck Finley – Better career than anyone – including me – would believe without seeing the data.
10. Jack Morris – Morris is P-Hall (while Concepcion is not), which determines the final spot. Mattingly and Murphy are also among the top 200 ever, but not P-Hall worthy for timeline reasons.

Happy New Year everybody.
   136. Sean Gilman Posted: January 02, 2008 at 01:02 AM (#2658049)
Bert Blyleven
Dave Concepcion
Andre Dawson
Rich Gossage
Mark McGwire
Dale Murphy
Tim Raines
Alan Trammell
   137. PreservedFish Posted: January 02, 2008 at 01:57 AM (#2658053)
Raines
Blyleven
   138. Kiko Sakata Posted: January 02, 2008 at 01:58 AM (#2658054)
My ballot is actually going to be identical to Sean Gilman's. I think I've explained pretty much all of these in various threads here over the past few weeks. I'll go ahead and try to rank them and add a sentence or two of explanation.

1. Tim Raines Comparable player to Wade Boggs and Tony Gwynn. I'd rank the three of them Boggs-Raines-Gwynn, but there's not really much space between them.
2. Mark McGwire I think that steroids were widespread enough and accepted enough in the 1990s that it's most appropriate to take McGwire's numbers at face value.
3. Alan Trammell
4. Bert Blyleven I think Blyleven is somewhat over-rated by the sabermetric community but is nevertheless easily deserving of the Hall of Fame. Trammell, on the other hand, is every bit as good as the sabermetric community / BBTF think he is.
5. Goose Gossage I'm ambivalent about whether relief pitchers can truly accumulate enough value to warrant induction into my personal Hall of Fame/Merit. The real Hall of Fame has decided that they do, and Gossage is superior, in my opinion, to Sutter, Fingers, and Eckersley, making him an easy choice for the real Hall of Fame.
6. Andre Dawson I was persuaded by the discussion of him at and subsequent election into the Hall of Merit. An excellent defensive centerfielder at his peak with one of the best throwing arms of the last 30+ years.
7. Dale Murphy He has a strong argument for being the best player in the National League in the 1980s (Scmidt and Raines being his chief competition as I see it), which is an important criterion, in my opinion, for the Hall of Fame.
8. Dave Concepcion I am persuaded by Dan Rosenheck's work that Concepcion belongs.

In the discussion thread, I had Jack Morris on my ballot at #9. I would still rank him #9 of these candidates, and I still believe that he has a borderline case for the Hall of Fame - a far better case than many here believe. I decided, upon reflection and having argued for him in a thread here spurred by a Heyman column I believe, that the argument that he was the best pitcher of the 1980s was not strictly true - Dave Stieb was better - and also made too much of a generational distinction between Morris and Bert Blyleven, who are only 4 years apart in age. So, while I think he wouldn't be a <u>bad</u> selection to the Hall of Fame, ultimately I decided to draw my in/out line just above him this year. Other guys close to the in/out line but just on the wrong side of it, in my opinion, are Dave Parker, Tommy John, and Lee Smith (not necessarily in that order).
   139. lincarnate Posted: January 02, 2008 at 02:11 AM (#2658061)
My ballot:
1. Blyleven
2. Gossage
3. John
4. McGwire
5. Raines
6. Smith
7. Trammell
   140. DanG Posted: January 02, 2008 at 05:09 AM (#2658107)
This being the BBWAA ballot, I think that write-ins should be limited to players who retired in the time frame currently under consideration in this election. Players who last played in MLB from 1988-2002 are eligible this year. This period contains ten players elected to the Hall of Merit who are not on the 2008 BBWAA ballot due to the 5% Rule:

Bret Saberhagen
Will Clark
Keith Hernandez
Dave Stieb
Lou Whitaker
Dwight Evans
Willie Randolph
Graig Nettles
Darrell Evans
Ted Simmons

There has not been a BBWAA ballot in the past 60 years that did not have at least ten players who meet the established standards of the Cooperstown Hall of Fame. Here are those that I think are most deserving:

Bert Blyleven
Dave Concepcion
Andre Dawson
Goose Gossage
Tommy John
Mark McGwire
Dale Murphy
Dave Parker
Tim Raines
Alan Trammell
   141. Soul Man Posted: January 02, 2008 at 05:35 AM (#2658115)
1) Tim Raines: At his peak he was one of the best players in the game, and after that he was above average for a long time.

2) Bert Blyleven: A workhorse who struck out a ton of batters and had good control for most of his career.

3) Mark McGwire: I really don't want to vote for him because to me, he's a one-trick pony, but a 162 OPS+ is hard to ignore.

4) Goose Gossage: The premier reliever of his era, although the long tail to his career kind of undermines his legacy.

5) Andre Dawson: Great defense, great arm, great baserunning, great power, decent batting average, crappy OBP. Clearly better than Murphy, Rice, Parker, and Kirby for that matter. His detractors say he's borderline at best, but if the worst thing you can say is that he didn't take a lot of pitches, I say put him in.

6) Alan Trammell: I'm not totally sold on him, because for most of his career he was overshadowed by Ripken, Ozzie, and then Larkin (not to mention Yount), plus he was rather inconsistent and not terribly durable. But...for a SS he was a great hitter, plus he was above average defensively. Also, it's hard to make the "he was only the 4th best at his position" argument when the three guys above him are all easy HOFers.

If I were voting for 10 candidates, I'd probably add Lee Smith (who I want to vote for but can't quite pull the trigger), Don Mattingly, Dale Murphy, and either Jim Rice or Chuck Finley. Smith and Mattingly are close; Murphy, Rice, and Finley aren't.
   142. emu Posted: January 02, 2008 at 06:26 AM (#2658128)
1. Tim Raines
2. Bert Blyleven
3. Goose Gossage
   143. baudib Posted: January 02, 2008 at 06:57 AM (#2658133)
Dan brings up an important point: Should we be considering those players who are eligible under the guidelines posted above, but not included among the player list since they fell off the HOF ballot?

Several of those players would receive considerable support (Clark, Hernandez, Evans, Simmons, etc.).
   144. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: January 02, 2008 at 07:25 AM (#2658136)
If a player is not listed at the top of this thread, he can be a write-in. Since the BBWAA doesn't have any other rules in regard to this and it's a moot point anyway since they don't count, you can place Dickey Pearce on your ballot for all I care. :-)
   145. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: January 02, 2008 at 07:29 AM (#2658138)
Dan brings up an important point: Should we be considering those players who are eligible under the guidelines posted above, but not included among the player list since they fell off the HOF ballot?


No. We're following Cooperstown's rules so we can see how our collective wisdom matches up with the BBWAA. Therefore, Clark, Hernandez, Whitaker, etc. can only be write-ins. Unfortunately, of course, since I support the above three players..
   146. Longshort1 Posted: January 02, 2008 at 08:33 AM (#2658150)
Blyleven
Gossage
McGwire
Raines
   147. Rusty Priske Posted: January 02, 2008 at 03:11 PM (#2658191)
My ballot:

Bert Blyleven
Andre Dawson
Mark McGwire
Dale Murphy
Dave Parker
Tim Raines
Alan Trammell
   148. DanG Posted: January 02, 2008 at 03:48 PM (#2658215)
Since the BBWAA doesn't have any other rules in regard to this and it's a moot point anyway since they don't count, you can place Dickey Pearce on your ballot for all I care.

Actually, the BBWAA rule is in Rule 3.(A) above. Thus, Pearce could not be made eligible for this election. Players like Clark, Hernandez, Whitaker, etc. are eligible for reinstatement to the ballot if the BBWAA ever chose to do that again.
   149. DL from MN Posted: January 02, 2008 at 03:59 PM (#2658223)
My Ballot

Bert Blyleven
Chuck Finley
Rich Gossage
Tommy John
Mark McGwire
Tim Raines
Lee Smith
Alan Trammell

Thanks Patrick W for pointing out Finley. I have him ranked as more deserving than any of the OF glut (Murphy, Parker, Rice, etc). I would caution voters that using raw WS totals overrates outfielders over infielders over pitchers in the modern era due to replacement value issues.
   150. kwarren Posted: January 02, 2008 at 04:57 PM (#2658270)
I would caution voters that using raw WS totals overrates outfielders over infielders over pitchers in the modern era due to replacement value issues.

Pitchers are worth much less to their teams on an individual basis in the modern era, because they play considerably less than in previous eras.

I agree that outfielders rates outfielders slightly higher than infielders, but I assmumed that was because they tended to be, on average, much better hitters. And even though infielders (2b, SS, 3b) tend to contribute more than corner outfielders defensively it does not compensate for the better hitting that outfielders usually provide.

This trend has been changing recently with the advent of power hitting infielders. Consider the top 18 players in 07 using Win Shares.

6 OF, 4 1B, 3 3B, 2 SS, 1 2B, 1 DH

The top pitcher was Sabathia in 27th place.

The top relief pitcher is J. J. Putz in 91st place.

DL, could you place explain the replacement issues that you believe over-rates outfielders and under-rates pitchers.
   151. DL from MN Posted: January 02, 2008 at 05:28 PM (#2658292)
> The top pitcher [for 2007] was Sabathia in 27th place.

Look at that list - 11 bats, 6 gloves (no C) and no pitchers; this demonstrates what I was saying. I don't think I want to see a HoF that is all OF and no pitchers post 1975. The $$ paid out for pitchers is higher per win share than the $$ paid out for outfielders. The market is in significant disagreement with Win Shares. It seems questionable to me that people would use a strict system for HoF voting (most Win Shares) that wouldn't put a pitcher on it's 25 man roster for the best players of the most recent season.

There's a (long) discussion thread on WARP, win shares and replacement value on the HoM site. There's no need to repeat it all here.
   152. DavidFoss Posted: January 02, 2008 at 05:40 PM (#2658303)
I agree that outfielders rates outfielders slightly higher than infielders, but I assmumed that was because they tended to be, on average, much better hitters. And even though infielders (2b, SS, 3b) tend to contribute more than corner outfielders defensively it does not compensate for the better hitting that outfielders usually provide.

Sabermetricians are a bit spoiled by the extreme accuracy of offensive run estimators (RC, EQR, etc), but when the complete picture is compiled there is still much disagreement about how to balance offense vs defense and one position vs another. Win Shares paints one picture, WARP another, VORP another, etc etc etc. Relative to the other uber-formulas, Win Shares does indeed overrate OF-1B types because it underrates defense and positional-adjustment.

Plus, even if pitchers are not as valuable as they used to be because they play less, not everyone is happy with the idea of inducting fewer pitchers because of that. Same thing with Catchers who also tend to play less. Some want the HOF roster to look like the roster of a team. As many P's (by percentage) in 1950 as there are in 1990. As many LF/RF/1B's as SS/2B/C, etc. These things may not line up due to random talent gluts and shortages, but its something people think about.
   153. McCoy Posted: January 02, 2008 at 06:29 PM (#2658353)
Bert Blyleven
Mark McGwire
Tim Raines
   154. TDF, situational idiot Posted: January 02, 2008 at 08:06 PM (#2658453)
Blyleven: As noted by others - not inner-circle, but clearly good enough.
Conception: Not quite Ozzie Smith, but that's OK. Besides, like the '50s Yankees, every member of the BRM deserves enshrinement!
Gossage: I'm not comfortable rating relievers, but one of the 5 best (on everyone's list) has to belong.
McGwire: You know my stance - the list of those who didn't take PEDs is much shorter than the one of those who did. The playing field was thus even in my mind.
Raines: Any writer who votes for Rice but not Raines should have his head examined - 1000 more PA, only 5 pts. of OPS+ difference. Oh, and 750 more SB.
Trammell: Should be an easy choice, but ARod/Jeter/Nomar are making people forget how great Trammell/Larkin were.

I sure wish I could vote for Rijo - #1 comp through age 30: Bob Gibson. Then, 95 IP the rest of his career.
   155. Best Dressed Chicken in Town Posted: January 02, 2008 at 08:46 PM (#2658508)
I'm not so sure we should be giving all that much credit to accomplishments that are clearly luck based

You are an idiot.
   156. Jasper109 Posted: January 02, 2008 at 09:44 PM (#2658588)
Raines
Blyleven
Trammell
Gossage
McGwire

Write-In

Belle
Whittaker

I really like the order that GWAA comes up with for some recent nominees.

Mark McGwire 44.01
Bert Blyleven 41.64
Tim Raines 35.54
Alan Trammell 33.97
Albert Belle 33.91
Tommy John 28.04
Jim Rice 25.76
Bret Saberhagen 25.21
Dale Murphy 24.98
Andre Dawson 24.80
Bobby Bonilla 24.53
Harold Baines 24.50
Jose Canseco 24.29
Orel Hershiser 24.03
Eric Davis 22.87
Rich Gossage 22.62
Dave Concepcion 21.63
Dave Parker 20.94
Don Mattingly 19.87
Jack Morris 17.14
   157. UCCF Posted: January 02, 2008 at 09:49 PM (#2658590)
Bert Blyleven
Andre Dawson
Rich Gossage
Tommy John
Jack Morris
Tim Raines
Jim Rice
Lee Smith
Alan Trammell
   158. flournoy Posted: January 02, 2008 at 09:55 PM (#2658595)
Bert Blyleven
Mark McGwire
Dale Murphy
Tim Raines
Alan Trammell
   159. rico vanian Posted: January 02, 2008 at 10:40 PM (#2658634)
Happy New Year!

Bert Blyleven
Andre Dawson
Rich Gossage
Mark McGwire
Jack Morris
Dale Murphy
Dave Parker
Tim Raines
Jim Rice
   160. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: January 02, 2008 at 11:29 PM (#2658652)
As I've said in the past, I think the HoF is a bit too restrictive these days, so I try to vote for 10 players in order to encourage them inducting anybody. In rough order:

Bert Blyleven
Tim Raines
Goose Gossage
Mark McGwire
Alan Trammell
Andre Dawson
Dale Murphy
Dave Concepcion
Lee Smith
Dave Parker

I would have the top 5 as all clearly qualified, Dawson & Murphy very close to the borderline, and Concepcion, Smith & Parker as viable candidates at the very least.
   161. Lenny Posted: January 03, 2008 at 12:11 AM (#2658670)
1. McGwire
2. Gossage
3. Blyleven
4. Raines
5. John
   162. Philip Posted: January 03, 2008 at 12:16 PM (#2658883)
1. Raines
2. Blyleven
3. McGwire
4. Gossage
5. Dawson
6. Trammell
7. John
   163. aardvark Posted: January 03, 2008 at 06:51 PM (#2659166)
Bert Blyleven-Number 5 on the all time K list. The only players in the top 17 on that list that are not in the Hall are active players. 'nuf said.

Tim Raines-Number 5 on the all time SB list and has the best SB% of all players since the stat has been tracked. His career OBP is a very healhy .385.

Mark McGwire-One of my favorite players as a child. Every player with more than 500 home runs that is eligible is in the hall. McGwire is number 8 on the all time HR list, number 9 on the slugging list and sports a career obp of .394. And here is what really makes the case for me, he is number 1 in AB/HR at 10.60. One home run ever 10 ab. He hit home runs more often than anyone...Ever...more often than Ruth, Bonds, everyone.
   164. WillYoung Posted: January 03, 2008 at 07:03 PM (#2659188)
Bert Blyleven
Tim Raines
Goose Gossage
Alan Trammell
Mark McGwire
   165. aardvark Posted: January 03, 2008 at 07:57 PM (#2659268)
As an additional note, I should say that I was (and were I a BBWAA voter I would be) very conservative in my voting. Because it is the Hall of Fame, I want to be sure that I am totally certain of my feelings about a candidate. If there is an uncertainty I have to say no.

Guys like Jim Ed and Goose are guys that I'd like to vote for but I just couldn't justify. I have good reasons why I'm voting for Blyleven, Raines, and McGwire and can comfortably defend them if pressed.

Rice is sort of like McGwire (short career, mostly one dimensional), but not as good. As for Gossage, I think it is very hard to evaluate relievers and I am too young to remember his real heyday. That said, I'm just not sure what about his career warrants a HoF vote. Convince me.
   166. Spicol Posted: January 03, 2008 at 08:43 PM (#2659367)
Rich Gossage
Mark McGwire
Tim Raines
Alan Trammell
   167. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: January 03, 2008 at 10:35 PM (#2659620)
Thus, Pearce could not be made eligible for this election.


I know, Dan. I just wanted to bring one of my favorite players into the conversation. :-)
   168. DCA Posted: January 03, 2008 at 10:56 PM (#2659648)
Blyleven
Concepcion -- I've come around, and just in time
Dawson
Gossage
McGwire
Murphy
Parker
Raines
Rice
Trammell
   169. Famous Original Joe C Posted: January 03, 2008 at 11:03 PM (#2659657)
Blyleven
Raines
McGwire
Trammell
Gossage
   170. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: January 04, 2008 at 12:40 AM (#2659741)
15 more voters from last year at this point.
   171. EvilBoWeevil Posted: January 04, 2008 at 04:08 AM (#2659836)
1. Tim Raines
2. Mark McGwire
3. Bert Blyleven
4. Tommy John
5. Alan Trammell
   172. Al Peterson Posted: January 04, 2008 at 03:38 PM (#2660049)
Long live the Expos! Couple of them make it...

1. Raines
2. Blyleven
3. McGwire
4. Gossage
5. Trammell
6. T. John
7. L. Smith
8. Dawson
   173. John M. Perkins Posted: January 04, 2008 at 04:45 PM (#2660101)
1) Blyleven
2) Raines
3) McGwire
4) Trammell
5) Gossage
   174. Mike Webber Posted: January 04, 2008 at 06:25 PM (#2660200)
I guess I'm a big Hall guy.

1 Blyleven, Bert
2 Concepcion, Dave
3 Dawson, Andre
4 Gossage, Rick
5 John, Tommy
6 Mattingly, Don
7 McGwire, Mark
8 Parker, Dave
9 Raines, Tim
10 Trammel, Alan

As they say at NCAA selection time, Concepcion, Parker and Mattingly were my last ones in, and the bubble burst on Morris.
   175. BTL: Lesser Primate, 4th Class Trainee Posted: January 04, 2008 at 06:39 PM (#2660213)
Alphabetical order:

Blyleven
Gossage
Murphy
Raines
Trammell
   176. Paul Wendt Posted: January 04, 2008 at 07:44 PM (#2660277)
As they say at NCAA selection time, Concepcion, Parker and Mattingly were my last ones in, and the bubble burst on Morris.

And Murphy doesn't get a footnote.

Can it be right to vote for Nine? It isn't popular, I'm sure, but it's clear that I am very reluctant to add another name. Chris Cobb has paved the way with notes that explain a few votes for people who belong out rather than in, but I just . . . can't . . . do . . . it.

Bert Blyleven
Tim Raines
Goose Gossage
Mark McGwire
Alan Trammell
Andre Dawson
Dale Murphy
Dave Concepcion
Lee Smith

= Devin McCullen minus Dave Parker (I cut and paste from #171)
= Chris Cobb minus Tommy John
See also andrew siegel iirc but there must be many ballots that differ by one.
   177. Dizzypaco Posted: January 04, 2008 at 07:52 PM (#2660287)
My order:

1. Raines
2. Trammell
3. Gossage
4. McGwire
5. Blyleven
   178. OCF Posted: January 04, 2008 at 08:04 PM (#2660295)
I've decided to limit my ballot to those who appeared in the top 15 on some HoM ballot I cast. That's not a "small hall" attitude but it's sort of a "no bigger" attitude. In the particular case of Dawson, I never could get past the number of outs he made (i.e., his OBP.)

Blyleven
Gossage
McGwire
Raines
Trammell

And a big thumb of my nose to the BBWAA for:

Grich
Simmons
Evans
Evans
Wynn
Whitaker
Randolph
Stieb
W. Clark
Saberhagen

And these guys are also gone from the ballot:

Cone
Cash
Bando
Staub
R. Smith
F. Howard
- and maybe even Singleton and J. Clark
   179. kwarren Posted: January 04, 2008 at 08:55 PM (#2660369)
Pitchers are not as valuable as they used to be because they play less. Not everyone is happy with the idea of inducting fewer pitchers because of that. Same thing with Catchers who also tend to play less. Some want the HOF roster to look like the roster of a team. As many P's (by percentage) in 1950 as there are in 1990. As many LF/RF/1B's as SS/2B/C, etc. These things may not line up due to random talent gluts and shortages, but its something people think about.

Why should this be a goal? What is in inherent value of having the positional distribution similar to the distribution on a roster? This is part of the logic that leads to the ridiculous notion that back-up pitchers should be represented in the Hall of Fame. All rosters have utility infielders and defensive speicialists. Perhaps we should induct of couple of these guys. You know to make the distribution of players look like a real roster. A back-up pitcher who pitches 70 innings is no more a part of the team than a utility player who gets 200 AB.

If 40% of the top 100 all-time players are outfielders and only 15% are pitchers, what is wrong with that. Why do we feel the need to somehow increase the value of pitchers and reduce the value of outfielders to get the "right" distribution.

I play in several simulation baseball leagues and it's amazing how many people think it is important to take starting pitchers with their first few picks. Then, when they lose to the guys who drafted a bunch of the top position players with their early picks (and picked up pitchers and catchers later) they find all sorts of reasons for their poor results, never realizing that their obsession on pitching is very counter productive. In order to build a winning team you have to realize how teams win games. In today's game a starting pitcher pitches only one of every five games, virtually never finish a game, and is dependent of his teams position players to play good defense and relievers. By the time he comes in to pitch his next 6 or 7 inning stint a position player would have had 25 plate appearances and made another 20 or 25 positions in the field.
   180. DCW3 Posted: January 04, 2008 at 08:59 PM (#2660377)
I really like the order that GWAA comes up with for some recent nominees.

Hey, I didn't think anybody ever paid attention to that! Here's the numbers for all the players on this year's ballot:

McGwire   44.01
Blyleven 41.64
Raines   35.54
Trammell 33.97
John  28.04
Rice  25.76
Murphy   24.98
Dawson   24.80
Baines   24.50
Gossage  22.62
Finley   22.37
Concepcion  21.63
Rijo  21.05
Parker   20.94
Mattingly   19.87
Knoblauch   18.14
Morris   17.14
Justice  16.86
Smith 14.20
Fryman   13.00
Anderson 12.78
Nen   10.84
Beck   8.76
Dunston   6.54
Stottlemyre  6.26 
   181. DCW3 Posted: January 04, 2008 at 09:05 PM (#2660384)
And these guys are also gone from the ballot:

Cone


Not that he's going to get a lot of support, but won't Cone be eligible for the HoF ballot next year?
   182. rawagman Posted: January 04, 2008 at 09:47 PM (#2660446)
kwarren - the hall of fame is not simulation baseball. Neither is real baseball.
   183. kwarren Posted: January 04, 2008 at 10:29 PM (#2660506)
Hey, I didn't think anybody ever paid attention to that! Here's the numbers for all the players on this year's ballot:

Hey, what's GWAA. I'm guessing "Games Won Above Average".

It doesn't seem to think much of Morris or Parker, but rather likes John & Gossage.

Where is it available? What is the premise? Are are relievers and defense handled?
   184. plink Posted: January 04, 2008 at 10:49 PM (#2660527)
Bert Blyleven
Tim Raines
Goose Gossage
Alan Trammell
Lee Smith
Lou Whitaker

I'm going to vote for Whitaker until his 15 years are up.

Jim Rice was my idol growing up, but this is the year I stop making excuses and leave him off my ballot.
   185. Jasper109 Posted: January 04, 2008 at 11:18 PM (#2660552)
Where is it available? What is the premise?

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/primate_studies/discussion/39139/
http://windshares.blogspot.com/2006/12/gwaa-2006-update.html
   186. OCF Posted: January 05, 2008 at 12:31 AM (#2660613)
DCW3*:

Sorry, I was being careless and not looking things up there. I had Cone on my 2008 Hall of Merit ballot. Now I realize what happened. Cone pitched enough to matter in 2001, wasn't in the major leagues in 2002, and then pitched 18 forgetable innings in 5 games in 2003. The Hall of Merit has a rule about disregarding "token" appearances for the sake of eligibility. Hence the Hall of Merit made him eligible in 2008. It looks like the Hall of Fame won't list him until 2010. So I shouldn't have mentioned him above - but consider it a pre-emptive strike. Of course there's no way to argue that Cone deserves consideration and Saberhagen doesn't, so we're back at the same place anyway. On the other hand, I don't consider the snub of Whitaker to be a valid reason not to vote for Trammell. (I hear you, plink.)

(However, neither Cone nor Saberhagen is anwhere close to being Kevin Brown in on-the-field value. As for all that other stuff: I did vote for McGwire.)
   187. jimd Posted: January 05, 2008 at 01:14 AM (#2660647)
Easy votes -- no explanation needed
Bert Blyleven
Tim Raines
Alan Trammell

Not-so-Easy votes -- lower half of HOF
Mark McGwire -- overrated (don't care about the steroid issue)
Goose Gossage -- closers are difficult to assess

Write-in votes -- hate that 5% rule
Ted Simmons
Lou Whitaker
Dave Stieb
Will Clark
Bret Saberhagen

It's a large hall no matter what my personal preference might be.
   188. CCornell Posted: January 05, 2008 at 02:14 AM (#2660702)
1. Raines
2. Blyleven
3. Gossage
4. Trammell
5. McGwire
6. Dawson
7. Murphy
8. Concepcion
   189. sunnyday2 Posted: January 05, 2008 at 02:22 AM (#2660711)
back-up pitcher who pitches 70 innings is no more a part of the team than a utility player who gets 200 AB.


I'm.......getting......(yawn).......sooooo.........sleeeeeeeeepyyyyyyyyyyyy................................ Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.......................
   190. rickey steals third person Posted: January 05, 2008 at 07:58 AM (#2660837)
Blyleven
Gossage
McGwire
Raines
Trammell
   191. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: January 06, 2008 at 02:13 AM (#2661350)
Guys, if you posted a ballot on the Ballot Discussion thread but not here, it wont be counted. No ifs, ands or buts.
   192. The Wilpons Must Go (Tom D) Posted: January 06, 2008 at 04:17 PM (#2661625)
Bert Blyleven
"Rock" Raines
Rich "Goose" Gossage
Alan Trammell
Lee Smith
Dale Murphy
Dave Concepcion
   193. Dandy Little Glove Man Posted: January 06, 2008 at 09:04 PM (#2661799)
So deserving that arguments against them sound ridiculous:
1. Tim Raines – Leadoff hitter with an annual 390+ OBP when the league average was below 330. One of the best baserunners ever, though he selfishly seemed to care more about efficiency than sheer volume of stolen bases. I guess no player is without flaw.
2. Bert Blyleven – League Tops 10s: ERA+ 12 yrs, IP 11 yrs, K/BB 16 yrs. If only he had been more of a true ace starter like Jack Morris…

Require a closer look, but comfortably in:
3. Alan Trammell – Some in-season durability issues easily overcome by his level of play when healthy. Tough to find many shortstops with 6 seasons of a 130 OPS+. 1987: 155 OPS+, 21/23 SB.
4. Andre Dawson – Mainstream writers tend to view him as the corner outfielder he was in Chicago, and much of the stats community can’t get past the low OBP and undeserved MVP. Both groups would benefit from focusing more on his years in Montreal, where he was an elite CF defender with 4 straight seasons of a 300+ EQA.
5. Rich Gossage – Unsuccessful briefly as a starter but one of the top few closers of all-time. Hard to justify leaving him out considering who’s already been inducted.
6. Mark McGwire – One of the best hitters ever by rate. He’d be higher on the ballot if he had been able to stay healthy for a full season more often.

More valuable than he appears and above the borderline:
7. Dave Concepcion – Great SS defender at a time when SS defense was paramount. Unimpressive as a hitter but much better than most of the other guys who could handle the position defensively.

Good enough to remain on the ballot:
8. Dale Murphy – Had a major ballpark advantage and his performance fell off a cliff. Even so, if all of his gold gloves had been warranted, his peak would be enough to put him in without question. Since most metrics indicate that his defense in CF was below average, he’s on the fence.
9. Lee Smith – Not quite the peak or prime of Gossage, but consistently a very good closer for a very long time.
10. Tommy John – Exceptionally long career as a good starter but lacking a peak by HOF standards. Depends on how you weigh career value against annual performance.
   194. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: January 06, 2008 at 09:18 PM (#2661811)
Guys, if you posted a ballot on the Ballot Discussion thread but not here, it wont be counted. No ifs, ands or buts.

BTW, I hope I didn't come across with an attitude there, which wasn't my intention. I just don't want anyone to lose their vote for failing to place it in the proper thread.
   195. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: January 06, 2008 at 09:41 PM (#2661822)
The election will end at 8 PM EDT and results will be posted right away.
   196. Kyle S Posted: January 07, 2008 at 01:00 AM (#2661897)
Bert Blyleven
Tim Raines
Alan Trammell
   197. caprules Posted: January 07, 2008 at 01:20 AM (#2661906)
Raines
Blyleven
McGwire
Trammell
Gossage
Dawson
   198. Newtype Posted: January 07, 2008 at 01:27 AM (#2661912)
In alphabetical order:

Brady Anderson
Harold Baines
Bert Blyleven
Goose Gossage
Tommy John
Mark McGwire
Dale Murphy
Tim Raines
Lee Smith
Alan Trammell
   199. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: January 07, 2008 at 01:56 AM (#2661927)
In alphabetical order:

Brady Anderson


As Bart Simpson might have said, "none of us really expected that."
   200. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: January 07, 2008 at 02:02 AM (#2661936)
The election is now over. Results will be posted shortly.
Page 2 of 2 pages  < 1 2

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Ray (RDP)
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Syndicate

Page rendered in 1.1336 seconds
68 querie(s) executed