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Hall of Merit
— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best

Tuesday, December 01, 2009

2011 Ballot Discussion

2011 (November 8, 2010)—elect 3
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos

395 137.4 1987 Rafael Palmeiro-1B
388 135.4 1991 Jeff Bagwell-1B
301 115.2 1990 John Olerud-1B
311 106.6 1990 Larry Walker-RF
241 106.0 1989 Kevin Brown-P
230 78.3 1987 BJ Surhoff-LF/C
250 67.1 1990 Marquis Grissom-CF
216 73.9 1991 Tino Martinez-1B
208 74.2 1993 Bret Boone-2B
182 79.9 1984 John Franco-RP
183 57.9 1994 Raul Mondesi-RF
150 67.7 1988 Al Leiter-P
160 56.0 1990 Carlos Baerga-2B
153 46.5 1991 Jose Offerman-SS/2B
105 52.5 1991 Wilson Alvarez-P
101 46.4 1996 Ugueth Urbina-RP
100 44.9 1990 Hideo Nomo-P
114 37.5 1986 Terry Mulholland-P*

Players Passing Away 10/11/09 to 10/11/10

HoMers

Age Elected

83 1972 Robin Roberts-P 5/6/10

Candidates

Age Eligible

96 1956 Tommy Henrich-RF 12/1/09

92——- Ernie Harwell-Broadcaster 5/4/10

90——- Ralph Houk-C/Manager 7/21/10

86 1966 Bobby Thomson-CF/LF 8/16/10

84 1959 Dottie Kamenshek-1B 5/17/10

84 1969 Cal McLish-P 8/26/10

80——- George Steinbrenner-Owner 7/13/10

78——- Maury Allen-Sportswriter 10/3/10

77 1972 Billy Hoeft-P 3/16/10

77 1973 Bob Shaw-P 9/22/10

72 1982 Mike Cuellar-P 4/2/10

69 1982 Willie Davis-CF 3/9/10

65 1990 Jim Bibby-P 2/16/10

Upcoming Candidate

37 2011 Jose Lima-SP 5/23/10

Thanks, Dan!

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: December 01, 2009 at 08:48 PM | 335 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   201. DL from MN Posted: August 27, 2010 at 02:52 PM (#3627294)
BTW - thanks for digging up his thread. I have no idea why I have so much trouble digging this stuff up using the search. I read through and dropped Day back into the Gooden, Burleigh Grimes and Dizzy Trout territory.

I don't think it is fair to call Leon Day a Hall of Fame mistake but he's going to have a hard time getting a vote from me unless his value at other positions makes up for his short career. This may be another case of a player who was more valuable in his given context than he would be in an MLE context. Day was able to make his NgL team competitive with one fewer roster spot needed because he could play a position when not pitching. That was extremely valuable to the Newark Eagles but would be less valuable to the New York Giants who had a bigger roster and generally had better options available at 2B and CF.
   202. Alex King Posted: August 27, 2010 at 07:30 PM (#3627857)
While we're discussing Negro Leagues pitchers, what about Chet Brewer?

The HOF pdfs have stats for William Bell, Chet Brewer, Ray Brown, Bill Byrd, Andy Cooper, John Donaldson, Jose Mendez, and Dick Redding (the latter 3 aren't fairly represented, since they peaked in the 1910s and the HOF stats only cover the post-1920's period).

Of all those players, Brewer is first in ERA by a wide margin, with a 2.89 ERA (actually Donaldson has a 2.97 ERA, but that's in 109 IP). HOMer Ray Brown and William Bell are tied for second, with a 3.20 ERA.

Brewer is 4th in IP with 1365, behind Andy Cooper (1593), Bell (1514) and Bill Byrd (1369). And the HOF numbers are missing large portions of Brewer's age 26-29 seasons, and all of his age 31-33 seasons. The HOF numbers also show Brewer as being quite good after the war (ages 39-42!), so he probably deserves some credit for 1942-1945.

These statistics seems to point to a pretty good pitcher. I ran some rough MLEs, based on an 0.85 conversion rate, which gave a career total for Brewer of ~60 WAR. Can someone else confirm these results? There are no existing MLEs in Brewer's thread; I'd like to see what Chris Cobb, Dr. Chaleeko, or Brent can do with Brewer's HOF numbers.

If Brewer is indeed as good as I've estimated, he would make my ballot, albeit near the bottom.
   203. DL from MN Posted: August 27, 2010 at 09:16 PM (#3628053)
If you use RA (4.04) instead of ERA (2.89) he drops back to the pack.
   204. Alex King Posted: August 27, 2010 at 09:40 PM (#3628101)
Pitcher RA IP
Bell 3.86 1514.3
Brewer 4.04 1364.7
Brown 4.16 1284.3
Byrd 4.43 1369
Cooper 4.38 1592.7
Donaldson 4.13 109
Mendez 4.50 337.7
Redding 4.71 628.3

Brewer still compares pretty favorably to the rest of the pitchers, but not nearly as much as before. This increases the likelihood that my WAR estimate is wrong; I'll try to get some WAR estimates for the other pitchers for comparison. Brewer still has a strong, interesting case, though.

Of course, using straight ERA neglects era and park effects, which also play a significant role.
   205. Howie Menckel Posted: August 28, 2010 at 09:00 PM (#3628768)
A frivolity detour before we focus more completely on 2011 ballots....

Most HOMers in one year, by position
Must have pitched 1 IP per G or 35 G, or MLE equivalent, and mainly P to be listed there, OR
Must have played half a team's games and mainly this position to be listed:

PITCHER
1980-81 (13) - GPerry Niekro Jenkins Palmer Seaver Sutton Carlton Fingers Blyleven Ryan Gossage Eckersley Stieb

CATCHER
1939 (6) - Mackey, Hartnett, Dickey, Gibson, Trouppe C-3O, Campanella

FIRST BASE
1934-35 (6) - JWilson, Terry, Gehrig, Suttles, Foxx, Charleston, Greenberg, Leonard
1936 (6) - JWilson, Terry, Gehrig, Suttles, Foxx, Charleston, Leonard, Mize

SECOND BASE
1892 (5) - Richardson 2B-OF, McPhee, Grant, Childs, Ward
1924 (5) - E Collins, Hornsby, Frisch, Lloyd, Dihigo 2B-UT (challengeable)
1926 (5) - E Collins, Hornsby, Frisch, Lloyd, Gehringer
1978 (5) - Morgan, Grich, Randolph, Whitaker, Molitor 2B(SS)
1979-80 (5) - Morgan, Grich, Randolph, Whitaker, Molitor
1983 (5) - Morgan, Grich, Randolph, Whitaker, Sandberg
1984 (5) - Morgan, Grich 2B(1B-3B), Randolph, Whitaker, Sandberg

THIRD BASE
1975 (7) - BRobinson, Rose 3B(OF), Torre 3B(1B), Nettles, DaEvans, Schmidt, Brett
1982 (7) - Bench, Nettles, DaEvans 3B-1B, Schmidt, Brett, Molitor, Sandberg

SHORTSTOP
1940-41 (6) - Wells, Cronin, Appling, Vaughan, Boudreau, Reese

OUTFIELD
1926 (15) - Cobb, Speaker, Wheat, Carey, Torriente, Roush, Heilmann, Ruth, Charleston, Oms, Goslin, Stearnes, Simmons, CPBell, PWaner
   206. Chris Fluit Posted: August 30, 2010 at 03:29 PM (#3629815)
Quick correction, Howie: First Base is 8 players, not 6.
   207. DL from MN Posted: September 17, 2010 at 05:40 PM (#3642815)
7 weeks until the election
   208. DL from MN Posted: September 27, 2010 at 07:03 PM (#3649649)
6 weeks until the election
   209. DL from MN Posted: September 30, 2010 at 04:56 PM (#3652038)
I'll try to spark some discussion here by posting my top 100 eligible players. I think we've underrepresented pitchers which is a big factor in my list.

1) Jeff Bagwell
2) Kevin Brown
3) Larry Walker
4) Tommy Bridges
5) Rick Reuschel
6) David Cone
7) Bus Clarkson
8) Urban Shocker
9) Phil Rizzuto
10) Gavy Cravath
11) Rafael Palmeiro - yes he's low, there is no steroid discount just lack of wins above positional average
12) Luis Tiant
13) Bob Johnson (13-18 are basically tied, still sorting out the end of the ballot
14) Ben Taylor
15) Bert Campaneris - shorstops went up when I got WAPA numbers
16) Bucky Walters
17) Dave Bancroft
18) Hilton Smith
19) Lave Cross
20) Norm Cash

21-25) Johnny Pesky, Dick Redding, Don Newcombe, Dave Concepcion, Babe Adams
26-30) Tommy Leach, Dizzy Dean, Jack Fournier, Wally Schang, Wilbur Cooper
31-35) Tommy John, Dizzy Trout, Kevin Appier, Leroy Matlock, Tony Mullane
36-40) Jim McCormick, Leon Day, Dwight Gooden, Dolf Luque, Vern Stephens
41-45) Fred Dunlap, Burleigh Grimes, Jim Fregosi, Robin Ventura, Luke Easter
46-50) Dom DiMaggio, Ron Cey, Jose Cruz, Kiki Cuyler, Bobby Bonds

51-55) Mike Tiernan, Ron Guidry, Chuck Klein, Frank Viola, Pie Traynor (Traynor's reputation doesn't match his fielding wins, if I give 5 more fielding wins he ends up ahead of Robin Ventura)
56-60) Virgil Trucks, Jack Quinn, Thurman Munson, Jack Clark, Darrell Porter
61-65) Chuck Finley, Hugh Duffy, Nap Rucker, Buddy Bell, Lon Warneke
66-70) Rabbit Maranville, Bob Elliott, Del Pratt, Vic Willis, Gene Tenace
71-75) Tony Lazzeri, Orel Hershiser, Steve Rogers, John Olerud, Frank Tanana

76-80) Cecil Travis, Dick Bartell, Brett Butler, Wilbur Wood, Roy White
81-85) Matt Williams, Frank Chance, Tony Fernandez, Carlos Moran, Jimmy Key
86-90) Ernie Lombardi, Jay Bell, Tony Perez, Cesar Cedeno, Mickey Welch
91-95) George Van Haltren, Rusty Staub, Dale Murphy, Chet Lemon, Roy Thomas
96-100) Paul O'Neill, Bill Monroe, Fred McGriff, Jim Kaat, Dennis Martinez

If 8-13 are "tied" in talent then so are 85-116. That's the Bell Curve.
   210. Alex King Posted: September 30, 2010 at 11:20 PM (#3652343)
OK, here is my top 50. I'm using Baseball-Reference's (Sean Smith's) WAR, adjusted for short seasons and WW2, and with a slightly different adjustment for the 1880s American Association than Smith uses. For Negro Leagues players, I estimated their WAR based on the available MLEs. To calculate a rating, I considered each player's top WAR, career WAR, top 3 seasons, top 5 seasons, top 5 consecutive seaons, seasons above 2 WAR and seasons above 5 WAR. Then I converted each category into a z-score based on my consideration set's average and standard deviation, then weighted and added the z-scores together.

1. Jeff Bagwell, 1B
2. Larry Walker, RF
3. Buddy Bell, 3B
4. Kevin Brown, SP
5. Rick Reuschel, SP
6. Ed Williamson, 3B
7. Sal Bando, 3B
8. Rafael Palmeiro, 1B
9. Dick Redding, SP
10. Hilton Smith, SP
11. David Cone, SP
12. Hugh Duffy, CF
13. John Olerud, 1B
14. Eddie Cicotte, SP
15. Luis Tiant, SP

16. Frank Chance, 1B
17. Gavy Cravath, RF
18. George Scales, 2B
19. Silver King, SP
20. Frank Tanana, SP
21. Kevin Appier, SP
22. Tommy Bond, SP
23. Cesar Cedeno, CF
24. Orel Hershiser, SP
25. Dwight Gooden, SP
26. Mike Griffin, CF
27. Vic Willis, SP
28. Fred Dunlap, 2B
29. Willie Davis, CF
30. Bobby Bonds, RF
31. Charlie Buffinton, SP
32. Mike Tiernan, RF
33. Wilbur Wood, SP
34. Urban Shocker, SP
35. Chuck Finley, SP
36. Davy Force, SS
37. Phil Rizzuto, SS
38. Bus Clarkson, SS
39. Bob Johnson, LF
40. Bobby Estalella, LF
41. Ben Taylor, 1B
42. George Burns, LF
43. Robin Ventura, 3B
44. Leroy Matlock, SP
45. Bill Monroe, 2B
46. Harry Hooper, RF
47. Norm Cash, 1B
48. Carlos Moran, 3B
49. Dave Bancroft, SS
50. Luke Easter, 1B

In addition, I'm currently in the process of creating MLEs for Chet Brewer; it looks like Brewer will end up in the 15-20 range.
   211. DL from MN Posted: October 01, 2010 at 02:18 PM (#3652625)
Alex - be careful making sure you're "fair to all positions". I don't feel the HoM has underrepresented 3B but (only) according to BBREF WAR we have. I think the answer to the SS/3B riddle is probably somewhere between Dan R and Sean so I'm fine with having both rankings represented. You seem to agree with me that we're short on pitchers.

The biggest issue is using pure BBREF WAR will underrate catchers. For example a pure WAR ranking will have Jack Clark ahead of Bill Dickey. There are no catchers in your top 50, I have 2 in my top 50 and 6 in my top 100. The top unelected catcher according to BBREF WAR is Gene Tenace but he had significant time playing 1B. The next few catchers are Lave Cross, Wally Schang and Thurman Munson - all right around HOM Bill Freehan in career BBREF WAR. Are they in your consideration set?

There are some odd placings (Olerud in the top 15?) but I have some too. As you slide off ballot everyone kind of blends together and there are really only small differences between players. For example, players 35-56 on my ballot are separated by 3 points, the same as the separation between 4 and 5 on my ballot.
   212. DL from MN Posted: October 01, 2010 at 04:24 PM (#3652750)
Have I mentioned enough times how much I love Baseball Reference?

Tommy Bridges top 10 pitching WAR rankings:
1932 AL 3.9 (7th)
1933 AL 4.3 (6th)
1934 AL 5.7 (4th)
1936 AL 6.3 (3rd)
1937 AL 3.7 (9th)
1939 AL 4.8 (5th)
1940 AL 4.8 (7th)
1941 AL 3.4 (10th)
1942 AL 3.3 (8th)
1943 AL 4.4 (4th)

That's 10 top 10 AL finishes.
   213. Chris Fluit Posted: October 01, 2010 at 04:53 PM (#3652776)
DL, you have Lave Cross as a catcher? He has 1724 games at 3B compared to only 324 behind the plate.
   214. DL from MN Posted: October 01, 2010 at 05:11 PM (#3652791)
I have him as a combined C/3B. It was pretty common for players to slide around the diamond then. He's actually getting very little catcher bonus in my spreadsheet.
   215. Alex King Posted: October 02, 2010 at 01:33 AM (#3653113)
I am actually using a C bonus. For each year that a catcher is considered a team's primary catcher, he receives a bonus proportional to 162/(most games played by any catcher in the league). However, that bonus only applies to innings caught. For innings played at other positions, either no bonus or a season-length adjustment is made (practically this second condition has a very small effect on catcher ratings, as primary catchers play most of their innings at catcher).
As a result, I have 3 catchers in my top 100 (Munson 66, Tenace 79, Schang 96). Additional catchers in my consideration set (which has 151 players) include Ernie Lombardi (147), Darrell Porter (131), Lave Cross (109; I consider him a 3B), and Jack Clements (106). Here's my top 100 broken down by primary position:

C 3
1B 9
2B 6
3B 7
SS 9
LF 6
CF 13
RF 8
SP 38
RP 1

So there's a clear lack of catchers in my top 100. This may stem partially from position adjustments for C from 1920-1950; normally, bbref WAR uses +10 as the C position adjustment, but for this period, it uses +5, because of the lack of stolen bases during this era. I'm not entirely sure that it's correct to debit catchers so severely; as a result I may try to refigure WAR with higher position adjustments for this era.

As for 3B/SS, at this point, I'm more inclined to use defensive position adjustments (BBREF WAR) as opposed to offensive position adjustments (as in Dan R's WAR). I intend to compare the two systems' approaches to position adjustments across eras, looking for discrepancies. It is entirely possible that for certain periods, defensive position adjustments don't work as well due to increased selection bias, as the skills required to play certain positions change in relation to each other.
   216. Chris Fluit Posted: October 02, 2010 at 04:18 PM (#3653368)
I have him as a combined C/3B.


Okay. Like Alex King, I have him the other way around.

It was pretty common for players to slide around the diamond then.


I'm aware of that. Duke Farrell and Deacon McGuire are a couple of contemporaneous examples. Plenty of time at C, 3B and OF.

Thinking about it that way, Joe Torre should have played in the 1890s. He'd have fit right in.
   217. Paul Wendt Posted: October 02, 2010 at 08:21 PM (#3653454)
In this respect the Catcher Question concerns the difference in workloads between regular catchers and regulars at seven other positions, during the same time period. Today as one hundred years ago it's true that catchers work fewer games than other regulars; today the difference shows up more at the career than at the season level.

In another respect the Catcher Question is the converse of a Pitcher Question. At least to 1910s, the structure of the major league game made catchers less valuable and pitchers more valuable than they are today, especially at the season level. Established workloads ensured that ratings denominated in games now recognize very few catchers and very many pitchers among the most valuable players in the game. (The 1870s schedules were short enough that many teams used one catcher as long as he remained healthy. Catchers played fewer games than their teammates, or played less well, partly because of injuries from play behind the plate without a mitt.)

How do measures of value denominated in games help ascertain merit for this project, across fielding positions or across distances where there are systematic differences in the number of games commonly played in a season or a career?

Three early pitchers do rank high on Alex King's list (#210): Silver King 19, Tommy Bond 22, Charlie Buffinton 31.

There is some discussion of the issue with reference to WAR ratings of early pitchers, by Alex King and me at "Chone's WARP and the Hall of Merit" #106-110.
   218. DL from MN Posted: October 04, 2010 at 02:13 PM (#3654443)
> position adjustments for C from 1920-1950

That is a great nuance to understand. Let's look at Wally Schang (zeroed out negative years)

Year DANRWAR BBREFWAR
1913 2.6 2.9
1914 3.8 3.9
1915 1.6 2.7
1916 2.4 2.9
1917 2.7 2.5
1918 1.4 2.0
1919 4.3 4.3
1920 3.7 3.4
1921 3.1 4.5
1922 2.6 2.9
1923 0.3 0.9
1924 1.8 2.0
1925 0.0 0.0
1926 2.4 2.5
1927 1.8 2.3
1928 2.7 3.0
1929 1.8 1.9

I don't think the difference here is in position adjustments. I think the difference is in playing time adjustments for catchers. Usually to be "fair to all positions" we have boosted catchers numbers to account for their lack of games played. Catchers and WAR calculators aren't going to play well together because a WAR calculator won't grasp the fatigue/difficulty of the position.
   219. DL from MN Posted: October 04, 2010 at 03:07 PM (#3654511)
Jim Palmer v. Kevin Brown (Dan R numbers)

Pitching wins above average: Brown 33.3, Palmer 28.3
WARP2: Brown 68, Palmer 63.7
Best4 consecutive: Brown 8.2, 6.2, 8.4, 5.4 (1996-99); Palmer 7.6, 5.9, 6.5, 6.3 (1975-78)
Seasons >= 4.0 WARP2: Brown 7, Palmer 10 (Brown has 2 seasons of 3.9)

Palmer has more all-star seasons but Kevin Brown has the best seasons

Best 12
KBrown 8.4, 8.2, 7.0, 6.2, 6.2, 5.4, 4.7, 3.9, 3.9, 3.1, 3.1, 2.1
Palmer 7.6, 6.5, 6.3, 5.9, 5.9, 5.7, 5.5, 4.6, 4.1, 4.1, 1.8, 1.6

Other numbers
Pitcher IP ERA+ BBREF WAR
Palmer 3948 126 63.5
KBrown 3256 127 64.8

Playoff WPA Brown 0.2, Palmer 1.2 (here's Palmer's big advantage)

Crunch the numbers pretty much every which way and I can't help but conclude that Kevin Brown was superior to Jim Palmer except in his post-season record. Jim Palmer is according to our consensus somewhere between the 25th and 35th best pitcher ever and 7th in the 1959-present category.
   220. OCF Posted: October 04, 2010 at 11:29 PM (#3655003)
Using my usual cruder methods (mostly RA+ equivalent record, with some adjustments), I don't really see Brown > Palmer or even Brown = Palmer, for one main reason: Palmer pitched many more innings. Now, that is primarily because Brown was a 1990's pitcher, and all 1990's pitchers threw fewer innings per season than did the previous ones. In compensation, some 1990's pitchers were more effective per inning pitched; in particular, RA+ and ERA+ decentralized, with extremely high RA+ and ERA+ becoming significantly more common. Put another way: Pedro Martinez was a truly remarkable pitcher, but it's hard to imagine him - or anyone - having ERA+ quite like that at any time before 1990.

So to argue that Brown = Palmer, you'll need to argue that Brown was quite substantially more valuable per inning than Palmer. Now there are some factors that at least lean that way: Palmer had possibly the best career-long defensive support that any superstar SP ever had. Brown's defensive support probably wasn't all that unusual, and as a fairly high-K pitcher, Brown was less dependent on his defense than Palmer had been. (Although as a GB pitcher, Brown certainly needed some defense.)

Here are the RA+ equivalent records I have. Brown's are unadjusted; Palmer's have been adjusted by an estimate of defensive support I got from someone here a long time ago. They're both sorted from best year to worst

Brown . | Palmer  |
|  
20-  |  2412 |
|  
20-  |  2211 |
|  
18-  |  2213 |
|  
18-  |  2113 |
|  
16-  |  2012 |
|  
1810 |  2114 |
|  
12-  |  2013 |
|  
1412 |  1912 |
|  
1614 |  14-  |
|  
12-  |  1610 |
|   
8-  |  1211 |
|  
1010 |  10-  |
|   
8-  |  1312 |
|  
1013 |   911 |
|   
910 |   7-  |
|   
1-  |   3-  |
|   
3-  |   4-  |
|   
1-  |   4-  |
|   
2-  |   0-  |
216-146 260-179 


Sorted that way, the careers are of similar shape - the same length, both with a bunch of nothing-much years at the end of the list. The equivalent winning percentage is about the same. That matches the ERA+ (essentially the same for the two of them) but not the RA+; Palmer's RA+ is a little better (all that defensive support), Brown's RA+ a little worse (since he was a ground ball pitcher, and hence a little more prone to UER). I've countered that with the defensive adjustment. But in the end I have pretty similar rate stats for the two of them. And that leaves you with Palmer's IP advantage, which is substantial.

I'll add this: even though I don't support the idea of Brown > Palmer, I do intend to have Brown in a "frontlog" position on my ballot, which is to say ahead of everyone left over from my 2010 ballot. I haven't yet decided exactly how to position him in comparison to the other frontloggers, but I do think Brown belongs in the HoM.
   221. DL from MN Posted: October 05, 2010 at 01:43 PM (#3655168)
OCF - one factor that gets lost in this is the value of a replacement pitcher. As you say pitchers in Brown's era pitched fewer innings which lowers the cumulative value of a replacement pitcher. Kevin Brown pitched in the era of 11 and 12 man pitching staffs. Palmer pitched for the 1974 Orioles who only used 11 pitchers all season and had essentially a 9 man pitching staff. The baseline of comparison is different. Palmer gets compared to 4th starters who pitched 40 games, Brown gets compared to 5th starters who pitched 25 games. Is replacement level the same if it requires using 3 roster slots for that replacement?

I guess I'm trying to say that I don't need to argue that Brown was more effective per inning if I can successfully argue that his innings were substantially more valuable. I think this shows up in the PWAA column. Both players are close in the BBREF career WAR but Brown has a lot more distance between his performance and that of an average pitcher.
   222. OCF Posted: October 05, 2010 at 03:29 PM (#3655252)
I'm not sure I like where this argument is going, since it makes all pitchers more valuable. If this argument turns Kevin Brown into something greater than Jim Palmer, does it make a 2300 IP, 120 ERA+ pitcher (e.g., Mark Buehrle) into a HoMer? Exactly how many HoM pitchers were there between 1990 and 2010, anyway ? Brown himself isn't the key to the argument, since I'm convinced he's a HoMer - but how far down does the in-out line go?
   223. DL from MN Posted: October 05, 2010 at 05:31 PM (#3655370)
> but how far down does the in-out line go?

Andy Pettitte. That's a glib answer but it might be correct. Trevor Hoffman is another glib answer.

The increase in the number of roster spots devoted to pitchers indicates that yes, general managers do believe pitchers are more valuable. The generally higher salaries ($/win) paid to pitchers also fits that hypothesis. GMs commonly pay $12M for 60-70IP.

I think the trend in increasing value of a pitching inning goes back to the deadball era. We have seen the 3 man rotation + 2 swingmen and a bullpen pitcher turn into the 5 man rotation and 7 man platoon bullpen.
   224. Paul Wendt Posted: October 07, 2010 at 12:02 AM (#3656741)
I don't follow the argument.

Where is it grounded? The allocation of resources, salary money and roster slots, is approximately an informed competitive equilibrium today, and that was true also in 1980. Pitchers get a larger share of the resources today than they did in 1980. (Compared with a generation before that, David Ortiz and other designated hitters have also taken a share at the expense of leftfielders, shortstops, etc.)

What are the facts? How much has the pitcher share of salary money increased since 1980? (What share is paid to the DHs?)

Where is it going? What is the relation between the pitcher shares of money and jobs and the pitcher share of aggregate Merit?


The group ranked Palmer and Jenkins about equal and ahead of Marichal, Koufax, Ryan, and Wilhelm. Does Brown > Palmer make a general point, suggesting Brown > Jenkins & co.?
   225. Paul Wendt Posted: October 07, 2010 at 01:19 AM (#3656864)
duplicate
   226. DL from MN Posted: October 07, 2010 at 02:59 PM (#3657344)
You don't follow probably because I don't have a whole lot of supporting data. I haven't tested the hypothesis.

I have Brown right behind Jenkins in my rankings about even with Palmer and Ryan and way ahead of Marichal. The next grouping of pitchers I have is Whitey Ford, Ed Walsh, Stan Coveleski, Hal Newhouser and they just happen to be right around the HoM median value pitchers. I can't make sense of a ranking system that places Brown below those players. He's without question better than Stieb and Saberhagen who are 25th to 30th percentile. He easily beats Koufax on career but I haven't compared their peaks.

I have no doubt that Kevin Brown is the 2nd best player eligible for this ballot. I like Larry Walker a lot but he's a 25th percentile HoM RF. Kevin Brown is at or above the HoM median for pitchers. Bagwell is about 60th percentile at 1B. As far as my ballot goes you can use Buck Leonard, Jim Palmer and Enos Slaughter as surrogates for the first 3 players. I have Tommy Bridges as close to Marichal and Saberhagen.
   227. Bleed the Freak Posted: October 07, 2010 at 06:03 PM (#3657513)
My prelim ballot - hopefully with comments to follow, along with a notables section in my next post.

To determine my rankings, I place stock heavily in: Dan R's WAR (Bert Campaneris), Joe D's PA (Rick Reuschel), Sean S's WAR (Kevin Brown), Chris C's MLE's (Gavvy Cravath), and expert opinion on the Negro League players (Bill Monroe).
I am a BIG proponent of war credit (Phil Rizzuto), while I also recognize that integration truncated the careers of others (Don Newcombe) who would have succeeded in today's environment.

1 Jeff Bagwell
2 Kevin Brown
3 Larry Walker
4 Rafael Palmeiro
5 Phil Rizzuto
6 David Cone
7 Rick Reuschel
8 Bert Campaneris
9 Johnny Pesky
10 Don Newcombe
11 Gavvy Cravath
12 Urban Shocker
13 Bill Monroe
14 Vic Willis
15 Orel Hershiser

I also agree with DL that the HOM is a bit underrepresented at the SP position, as I have seven on my ballot.

Regarding catchers, I have Thurman Munson within the Top 25-30 and Gene Tenace Top 40.

I hope that some lively discussion begins on the threads at BBTF before the 2011 election, as we all become more knowledge from the electorate.
   228. DL from MN Posted: October 12, 2010 at 03:28 PM (#3662075)
4 weeks until the election
   229. DL from MN Posted: October 12, 2010 at 09:24 PM (#3662434)
Reminder to all prospective new voters for 2011 - please post a sample ballot in this thread before November 8th.
   230. Esteban Rivera Posted: October 14, 2010 at 07:58 PM (#3663974)
As the election nears, I thought I would share some work I have been doing in player and era evaluation for my ballot. I think it may help possible newcomers to have a summary of the eras we have already gone over in one place and also to get some discussion going among the electorate. There are many player evaluation tools out there that can be used, ranging from quantitative to qualitative, objective to subjective, heavy in numbers to light on numbers, etc. I have used many in the past and continue to search for any additional information that can help my evaluations. For this particular comparison, I am going to use Sean Smith’s WAR. The reason is because it is the most accessible due to being on Baseball Reference, and, more importantly, is in the play index (which means quick comparison tables).

Of course, this does not mean that this tool is the end all or be all of discussion. I am only using it because it is accessible and it is one of the newer systems that we have not hashed out too much before. Like any tool, it has its peculiarities which should be known and understood by any user. I cannot stress enough to any possible newcomer that any metric that is out there is only a tool, not the answer, and that each voter’s informed judgment and evaluation should look to include as much information and context as possible.

I will start with what I call in my notes the Professional Era, which would be 1869 to 1883. The cutoff is made at this year because in 1884 the National League allows overhand pitching. The numbers in the following charts will be from 1871 to 1883. Previous era include the Amateur Era (1857-1868) and the Knickerbocker Era (1845-1856). Some players from the Professional era were also around during the Amateur Era.

First, here is some context for the Professional Era: Must adjust for differing schedule lengths and account for league strength differences if notable. Pre-NA era credit and other league credits may apply. Pitching is underhand. Pitching distance changes: 1871-1880 (40 feet), 1881-1886 (50 feet). Reserve clause starting in 1880 impacted certain players. Player and team movement are key patterns to observe. Expected schedules were: 1871- 5 games each vs. competitors; 1872- originally 5 changed midseason to 9 games each vs. competitors due to dropouts; 1873 - 9 games each vs. competitors; 1876 - 10 games each vs. competitors; 1879 – 84 games; 1882 – AA 80 games; 1883 – NL 98 games, AA 98 games.

For the WAR numbers, please remember that there is no available pitching WAR for 1871 to 1875 when looking at the pitcher numbers. Also, please remember that any fielding and baserunning numbers in the metric are based on educated estimates. They are not to be taken as exact gospel, only as the metric’s opinion based on the numbers and its framework. Two components of WAR are not available due to lack of data for this time, ROE and DPs (someone correct me if this is wrong). Due to the defensive norms of the era (lack of gloves, bad terrains, etc.), in my opinion, the ROE is an important aspect of the play during this time, so please keep this also in mind.

For the charts that follow, the cutoff used is 30% of career games at the position, due to the high player movement between positions in this era. For this era only, all outfielders will be in one chart. Future eras will have a total outfielders chart and separate charts for each of the three positions. Any specific player notes will be included following the chart.
   231. Esteban Rivera Posted: October 14, 2010 at 08:07 PM (#3663982)
Professional Era: Catcher 30% Career Games

Rk Player WAR/pos WAR/ 162 G WAR/ 502 PA From To Age G PA Pos
1 Deacon White 28 5.6 3.8 1871 1883 23-35 815 3740 2593/47861
2 Cal McVey 23 7.0 4.5 1871 1879 21-29 530 2543 32/5918674
3 John Clapp 19.1 5.3 3.6 1872 1883 20-31 588 2635 *2/798364
4 Charlie Bennett 13.5 6.2 4.6 1878 1883 23-28 352 1473 *2/8459763
5 Buck Ewing 9.2 6.2 4.4 1880 1883 20-23 242 1059 *2/56489731
6 Silver Flint 8.9 3.0 2.3 1875 1883 19-27 479 1917 *2/97835
7 Jack Rowe 8.2 4.2 3.1 1879 1883 22-26 313 1322 *2/67958
8 Pop Snyder 8 2.2 1.7 1873 1883 18-28 583 2365 *2/98634
9 Doug Allison 6.4 3.3 2.2 1871 1883 24-36 318 1431 *2/983641
10 Emil Gross 6.3 4.5 3.4 1879 1883 21-25 225 937 *2/879
11 Dick Higham 6.1 2.7 1.7 1871 1880 19-28 372 1803 *92/48356
12 Jack O'Brien 5.5 5.7 4.1 1882 1883 22-23 156 669 *2/85963
13 Lew Brown 4.8 2.7 1.9 1876 1883 18-25 293 1238 *2/3981
14 Fergy Malone 4.3 3.2 2.0 1871 1876 26-31 219 1080 *2/3986
15 Doc Kennedy 3.5 3.5 2.8 1879 1883 25-29 160 630 *2/8375

Three candidates stand out from the pack: Deacon White, Cal McVey, and John Clapp. Charlie Bennett and Buck Ewing are off to a good start. Silver Flint and Pop Snyder are defensive wizards but don’t have the offensive pop. Jack Rowe was principally a catcher during the underhand pitching era. Allison, Malone, White and McVey may deserve Pre-Na credit. Bennett may deserve credit for 1877 (Milwaukee of LA) and/or 1879 (Worcester of NA). McVey may deserve credit for post-79 play (California, etc.). Clapp may deserve credit for 1882 (LA of NY) and/or 1884 (St. Paul of NWL). Rowe may also deserve credit for 1877 (Milwaukee of LA) and in 1878 (where was he?). Ewing spent part of 1880 with Rochester of NA. Snyder may deserve credit for 1880 (Washington of NA). Flint may deserve credit for 1877 (Indianapolis of LA). Allison may deserve credit for part of 1879 (Rochester of 1879). Was he victim of reserve clause?

My apologies if the table looks off (it looked fine in the text box). I have only included player notes for the top ten and other notables, which will be the pattern for all other positions (although OF and P will have slightly more).
   232. Esteban Rivera Posted: October 14, 2010 at 08:10 PM (#3663988)
Professional Era: First Base 30% Career Games

Rk Player WAR/pos WAR/162 G WAR/502 PA From To Age G PA Pos
1 Cap Anson 39.8 7.7 5.2 1871 1883 19-31 833 3834 *352/794681
2 Joe Start 25.3 4.9 3.2 1871 1883 28-40 845 3951 *3/987
3 Cal McVey 23 7.0 4.5 1871 1879 21-29 530 2543 32/5918674
4 John Morrill 14.8 3.9 2.9 1876 1883 21-28 618 2591 *35/4298167
5 Dan Brouthers 13.7 7.7 5.4 1879 1883 21-25 289 1283 *3/7195
6 Roger Connor 13.3 6.2 4.4 1880 1883 22-25 347 1531 *3/587
7 Harry Stovey 9.9 4.8 3.2 1880 1883 23-26 336 1550 *3/7891
8 Wes Fisler 7.6 4.5 2.8 1871 1876 26-31 273 1350 34/986
9 Ed Swartwood 5.9 5.6 3.8 1881 1883 22-24 171 787 /3892
10 Everett Mills 4.8 2.3 1.6 1871 1876 26-31 337 1538 *3/8
11 Bill Phillips 4.6 1.7 1.3 1879 1883 22-26 426 1801 *3/289
12 Charlie Comiskey 3.6 3.4 2.4 1882 1883 22-23 174 745 *3/17
13 Denny Mack 3.6 1.6 1.1 1871 1883 20-32 373 1598 36/48791
14 Ed Cogswell 3.3 4.9 3.2 1879 1882 25-28 109 521 *3
15 Tim Murnane 3.3 1.7 1.2 1872 1878 21-27 307 1359 *3/8497

Three candidates stand out from the pack: Cap Anson, Joe Start, and Cal McVey. Dan Brouthers and Roger Connor are off to a good start. Harry Stovey is doing very well also. Start, McVey, Anson, Fisler and Mills may deserve Pre-Na credit. McVey may deserve credit for post-79 play (California, etc.). Brouthers may deserve credit for part of 1880 (Roch/Bal of NA) and/or part of 1881 (Atlantics/NewYorks of ECA). Connor may deserve credit for 1878 and/or 1879 (New Bedford of IA and Holyoke of NA). Stovey may deserve credit for 1877 (Philadelphia of LA) and/or 1878-79 (New Bedford of IA/NA). Fisler may deserve credit for 1877 (Philadelphia of LA). Mills amy deserve credit for 1877 (Milwaukee of LA) and 1878 (Hartford of IA).
   233. Esteban Rivera Posted: October 14, 2010 at 08:14 PM (#3663993)
Professional Era: Second Base 30% Career Games

Rk Player WAR/pos WAR/162 G WAR/502 PA From To Age G PA Pos
1 Ross Barnes 33.1 10.7 6.6 1871 1881 21-31 499 2507 *46/571
2 Jack Burdock 16.7 3.2 2.3 1872 1883 20-31 836 3667 *4/56278
3 Bob Ferguson 15.8 3.1 2.2 1871 1883 26-38 814 3554 54/612
4 Jack Farrell 13.7 5.4 3.7 1879 1883 21-25 409 1835 *4/8
5 Fred Dunlap 13.7 6.5 4.4 1880 1883 21-24 342 1554 *4/95
6 Mike McGeary 12.7 3.8 2.5 1871 1882 20-31 547 2507 465/298
7 Hardy Richardson 11.2 4.3 3.0 1879 1883 24-28 420 1851 45/826
8 Wes Fisler 7.6 4.5 2.8 1871 1876 26-31 273 1350 34/986
9 Joe Battin 7.3 3.2 2.3 1871 1883 18-30 373 1577 *54/89612
10 Bill Craver 6.4 3.1 2.0 1871 1877 27-33 339 1594 *4/628359
11 Joe Gerhardt 6 1.9 1.4 1873 1883 18-28 506 2139 *4/53678
12 Jimmy Wood 4.8 7.6 4.7 1871 1873 27-29 102 513 *4
13 John Hatfield 4.4 3.5 2.1 1871 1876 23-28 206 1034 /7451369
14 Joe Quest 3.5 1.4 1.1 1871 1883 18-30 406 1643 *4/65
15 Candy Nelson 3.3 1.5 1.0 1872 1883 23-34 361 1617 *64/589732
16 Bid McPhee 2.9 2.7 2.1 1882 1883 22-23 174 707 *4
17 Al Reach 1.4 2.7 1.7 1871 1875 31-35 83 402 /9483

Only one candidate stands out from the pack: Ross Barnes. Fred Dunlap and Hardy Richardson are off to good starts. Barnes, Ferguson, Fisler, Craver, Wood, Hatfield and Reach may deserve Pre-Na credit. Reach is already in his thirties when league play began and played in 1877 for Philadelphia of LA. Barnes may deserve credit for 1878 (London of IA). Where was he in 1880? Ferguson may deserve partial 1879 credit (Springfield of NA). Farrell may deserve credit for 1877 and/or 1878 (Syracuse of LA and IA). Dunlap may deserve credit for 1877, 1878 and/or 1879 (Auburn, Hornellsville and Auburn of IA/NA). McGeary may deserve credit for 1878 (Springfield of IA). Richardson may deserve credit for 1877 (Binghamton of LA) and/or 1878 (Utica of IA). Binghamton was well regarded independent team in 1876, may result credit. Fisler may deserve credit for 1877 (Philadelphia of LA). Battin may deserve post 1877 credit (played in IA/NA, ECA and LA). Gerhardt may deserve credit for 1880 (Washington of NA) and/or 1882 (where was he? Blacklisted?).
   234. Esteban Rivera Posted: October 14, 2010 at 08:16 PM (#3663998)
Professional Era: Third Base 30% Career Games

Rk Player WAR/pos WAR/162 G WAR/502 PA From To Age G PA Pos
1 Ezra Sutton 20.1 4.0 2.8 1871 1883 21-33 822 3577 *56/349128
2 Ned Williamson 19.3 6.5 4.6 1878 1883 20-25 481 2086 *5/24316
3 Bob Ferguson 15.8 3.1 2.2 1871 1883 26-38 814 3554 54/612
4 Levi Meyerle 11.4 6.1 4.0 1871 1877 21-27 304 1442 *5/4963178
5 Hardy Richardson 11.2 4.3 3.0 1879 1883 24-28 420 1851 45/826
6 Joe Battin 7.3 3.2 2.3 1871 1883 18-30 373 1577 *54/89612
7 Harry Schafer 6 2.6 1.8 1871 1878 24-31 367 1667 *5/97628
8 Jerry Denny 5.4 3.3 2.6 1881 1883 22-24 267 1060 *5
9 Hick Carpenter 4.2 1.7 1.2 1879 1883 23-27 400 1730 *5/3946
10 Warren White 2.3 2.3 1.6 1871 1875 27-31 164 707 *5/6842
11 George Bradley 2.2 0.7 0.5 1875 1883 22-30 495 2013 *15/386794
12 Arlie Latham 2.2 3.0 2.2 1880 1883 20-23 120 504 /*5692
13 Jack Gleason 1.6 1.5 1.0 1877 1883 22-28 172 780 *5/79864
14 Ed Pinkham 1.5 10.1 6.7 1871 1871 24-24 24 113 /*591
15 Fred Waterman 1.5 4.0 2.4 1871 1875 26-30 61 314 /*56289

Two candidates separate themselves from the pack: Ezra Sutton and Ned Williamson. Ferguson and Meyerle may be close to them with credits. Sutton, Ferguson, Meyerle, and Schafer may deserve pre-NA credit. Williamson may deserve credit for 1877 (Pittsburgh of IA), also played in California in 1880. Ferguson may deserve partial 1879 credit (Springfield of NA). Meyerle may deserve credit for part of 1877 (Philadelphia of LA), 1878 (Springfield of IA), 1879 (Washington of NA), and/or 1880 (Rochester of NA). Richardson may deserve credit for 1877 (Binghamton of LA) and/or 1878 (Utica of IA). Binghamton was well regarded independent team in 1876, may result in credit. Battin may deserve post 1877 credit (played in IA/NA, ECA and LA). Schafer may deserve credit for 1877 (Rochester of IA). Denny played in California from 1878 to 1880. Carpenter may deserve credit for 1877 (Syracuse of LA) and 1878(Syracuse of IA).
   235. Esteban Rivera Posted: October 14, 2010 at 08:17 PM (#3664002)
Professional Era: Shortstop 30% Career Games

Rk Player WAR/pos WAR/162 G WAR/502 PA From To Age G PA Pos
1 George Wright 28.5 7.8 4.9 1871 1882 24-35 591 2941 *6/4135
2 Davy Force 18.2 3.8 2.6 1871 1883 21-33 784 3451 *654/19
3 John Peters 12.1 3.2 2.2 1874 1883 24-33 614 2715 *6/419
4 Jack Glasscock 11.3 4.3 3.2 1879 1883 21-25 422 1746 *6/45
5 Tom Burns 10.3 4.8 3.5 1880 1883 23-26 350 1489 *6/45217
6 Chick Fulmer 10 2.9 2.1 1871 1883 20-32 551 2362 *6/45132
7 Tom Carey 8.4 2.5 1.7 1871 1879 25-33 536 2410 *64/593
8 Dickey Pearce 8.3 4.6 3.1 1871 1877 35-41 291 1361 *6/417539
9 Arthur Irwin 6.3 3.2 2.4 1880 1883 22-25 317 1341 *6/542
10 Sadie Houck 4.8 2.5 1.8 1879 1883 23-27 317 1333 *6/978
11 Bill Gleason 4.7 4.3 3.0 1882 1883 23-24 177 793 *6
12 Mike Moynahan 4.1 4.3 3.0 1880 1883 24-27 156 679 *6/75
13 Denny Mack 3.6 1.6 1.1 1871 1883 20-32 373 1598 36/48791
14 John Radcliff 3.4 3.5 2.1 1871 1875 23-27 157 825 *6/59438
15 Candy Nelson 3.3 1.5 1.0 1872 1883 23-34 361 1617 *64/589732

One candidate stands out: George Wright. Davy Force is a clear second. Wright, Force, Peters, Fulmer, Carey, Pearce, Mack and Radcliffe may deserve pre-NA credit. Wright may deserve credit for 1880 (refused reserve clause pay cut and was not allowed to play for anyone else, except mysterious 1 game appearance). Force may deserve credit for 1878 (Buffalo of IA). Glasscock may deserve credit for 1877 (in LA) and/or 1878 (Pittsburgh of IA). Burns may deserve credit for 1877 (Auburn of LA), 1878 (Hornellsville of IA) and/or 1879 (Albany of NA). Fulmer may deserve credit for 1877 (IA and LA), 1878 (Buffalo of IA), 1880 (Albany of NA), and/or 1881 (Philadelphia of ECA). Carey went to California in 1879 and 1880. Pearce was already in mid 30’s when league play started. Where was Houck in 1882? Irwin may deserve credit for 1879 (Worcester of NA).
   236. Esteban Rivera Posted: October 14, 2010 at 08:20 PM (#3664004)
Professional Era: OF 30% Career Games

Rk Player WAR/pos WAR/162 G WAR/502 PA From To Age G PA Pos
1 Paul Hines 27.2 5.5 3.7 1872 1883 17-28 794 3669 *83/4756921
2 Jim O'Rourke 27 5.2 3.4 1872 1883 21-32 844 3940 83759/261
3 Tom York 20.2 3.8 2.7 1871 1883 20-32 858 3760 *7/89
4 George Gore 17.5 7.3 5.0 1879 1883 22-26 389 1768 *8/395
5 King Kelly 15 5.0 3.5 1878 1883 20-25 485 2153 *92/564813
6 Charley Jones 14.4 5.4 3.7 1875 1883 25-33 434 1940 *78/39
7 Lip Pike 13.7 5.2 3.4 1871 1881 26-36 424 2026 *8/946573
8 Abner Dalrymple 12.5 4.4 2.9 1878 1883 20-25 464 2161 *7/98
9 Orator Shafer 11.4 3.2 2.3 1874 1883 22-31 573 2469 *9/7853
10 George Hall 11.3 5.0 3.3 1871 1877 22-28 365 1708 *78/93
11 Harry Stovey 9.9 4.8 3.2 1880 1883 23-26 336 1550 *3/7891
12 Pete Browning 8.1 8.6 5.9 1882 1883 21-22 153 695 /4675893
13 Andy Leonard 7.6 2.5 1.6 1871 1880 25-34 501 2423 *7/46539
14 Dave Eggler 7.5 2.4 1.6 1871 1883 22-34 507 2320 *8/7495
15 Joe Hornung 7.3 2.8 2.0 1879 1883 22-26 429 1844 *7/348195
16 George Wood 6.2 2.9 2.0 1880 1883 21-24 344 1548 *7/8513
17 Monte Ward 6.2 2.2 1.6 1878 1883 18-23 462 1991 *19/85674
18 Dick Higham 6.1 2.7 1.7 1871 1880 19-28 372 1803 *92/48356
19 John O'Rourke 6.1 4.3 3.1 1879 1883 29-33 230 992 *8/793
20 Ed Swartwood 5.9 5.6 3.8 1881 1883 22-24 171 787 /3892
21 Sadie Houck 4.8 2.5 1.8 1879 1883 23-27 317 1333 *6/978
22 Pete Gillespie 4.8 2.3 1.7 1880 1883 28-31 338 1447 *7/8
23 John Hatfield 4.4 3.5 2.1 1871 1876 23-28 206 1034 /7451369
24 Buttercup Dickerson 4.2 2.0 1.4 1878 1883 19-24 336 1478 *78/964
25 John McMullin 4.2 2.8 1.9 1871 1875 22-26 244 1121 7/96

Paul Hines and Jim O’Rourke lead outfield candidates, majority position for both is CF. Tom York leads LF, although Charley Jones challenges with credit. King Kelly leads RF. Jim O’Rourke, York, Pike, Hall, Leonard, Higham, Hatfield, McMullin may deserve pre-NA credit. Jim O’Rourke played until 61 years old in the minors (does not result in credit but a fun fact I thought should be noted). Gore may deserve credit for 1878 (New Bedford of IA). Kelly may deserve credit for 1877 (Columbus of IA). Jones may deserve credit pre-1875, 1880 (suspended final month), 1881 and/or 1882 (blacklisted). Pike may deserve credit for 1879 (in NA), 1880 (in NA), and/or 1881 (Brooklyn of ECA). Dalrymple may deserve credit for 1877 (Milwaukee of NA) and also played in Western Association post age 30. Where was Shafer in 1876? ). Stovey may deserve credit for 1877 (Philadelphia of LA) and/or 1878-79 (New Bedford of IA/NA). Browning played with Louisville team pre 1882 since he was 16 years old, some credit due? Leonard may deserve credit for 1879 (Alb/Roch of NA). Eggler may deserve partial credit for 1877 (Philadelphia of LA) and/or 1878 (Buffalo of IA). Where was he from 1880 to 1882? Hornung may deserve credit for 1877 (Lon of IA) and/or 1878 (Lon/Buf of IA). Wood may deserve credit for 1878 (Lynn/Wor of IA) and/or 1879 (Man/Wor of NA). Ward may deserve credit for 1877 (in LA), partial credit for 1878 (Binghamton of IA), along with pitching credit (see pitcher chart). Higham may deserve credit for 1877 (Binghamton of LA) and/or 1879 (Alb/Roc of NA). John O’Rourke may deserve credit for 1877 (Manchester of IA), 1878 (Manchester of IA), and/or 1881 (Philadelphia of ECA). Also, where was he before 1877 and from 1882 onward (save 1883 AA)?
   237. Esteban Rivera Posted: October 14, 2010 at 08:22 PM (#3664005)
Professional Era: Pitchers (Does not include NA pitching or overall batting in WAR score)

Rk Player WAR WAR/162 G WAR/162 IP From To Age G IP
1 Tommy Bond 40.9 17.0 2.0 1874 1882 18-26 389 3396.2
2 Jim McCormick 37.1 18.8 2.2 1878 1883 21-26 320 2784.2
3 Pud Galvin 28.3 14.5 1.7 1875 1883 18-26 316 2689.1
4 Will White 27.4 14.1 1.6 1877 1883 22-28 314 2767.1
5 Monte Ward 25.3 14.4 1.7 1878 1883 18-23 284 2409
6 Tim Keefe 24.8 23.9 2.7 1880 1883 23-26 168 1503
7 Old Hoss Radbourn 23.4 22.2 2.7 1881 1883 26-28 171 1423.2
8 Jim Devlin 22.2 22.9 2.6 1875 1877 26-28 157 1405
9 Larry Corcoran 21.8 17.4 2.0 1880 1883 20-23 203 1762.1
10 Jim Whitney 19.9 18.2 2.2 1881 1883 23-25 177 1486.1
11 Sam Weaver 14.1 17.0 2.0 1875 1883 19-27 134 1160.2
12 Fred Goldsmith 13.9 13.7 1.6 1879 1883 27-31 164 1391.2
13 Tony Mullane 12.8 18.4 2.1 1881 1883 22-24 113 965
14 George Bradley 12.6 6.7 0.8 1875 1883 22-30 306 2598
15 Stump Wiedman 12.1 15.3 1.9 1880 1883 19-22 128 1042
16 Al Spalding 10.4 4.9 0.6 1871 1877 20-26 347 2886.1
17 Jumbo McGinnis 10.1 18.2 2.1 1882 1883 28-29 90 771
18 Mickey Welch 8.2 6.9 0.8 1880 1883 20-23 192 1649
19 Harry McCormick 7.6 12.0 1.4 1879 1883 23-27 103 884
20 Lee Richmond 6.9 5.9 0.7 1879 1883 22-26 188 1565
21 Hugh Daily 6.4 14.0 1.6 1882 1883 34-35 74 634.1
22 Denny Driscoll 5.3 12.3 1.5 1880 1883 24-27 70 579
23 Charlie Buffinton 4.3 14.5 1.9 1882 1883 21-22 48 375
24 Bobby Mathews 3.8 1.4 0.2 1871 1883 19-31 450 3847.1
25 Terry Larkin 3.1 2.9 0.3 1876 1880 99-99 176 1567.1

Tommy Bond and Jim McCormick stand out, although it is key to remember that NA seasons are not included in this data (we will see other measures to examine these years). J McCormick may deserve credit for 1877 (Columbus of IA and Indianapolis of LA). Galvin may deserve credit for 1876 (possibly with independent team, Pittsburgh?), 1877 (Pittsburgh of IA), and/or 1878 (Buffalo of IA). Ward may deserve credit for 1877 (in LA) and/or partial credit for 1878 (Binghamton of IA). Keefe may deserve credit for 1879 (Utica/New Bedford of NA) and/or 1880 (Albany of NA). Radbourn may deserve credit for 1879 (Dubuque of NWL). Devlin was not a pitcher until 1875, played in California in 1880. Corcoran may deserve credit for 1877 (in LA), 1878 (Springfield of IA), and/or 1879 (Springfield/Holyoak of NA). Whitney may deserve credit for 1878 (Binghamton of IA), 1879 (in California and NWL) and/or 1880 (where was he?). Weaver may deserve credit for 1877 (Phi/Mil of LA), 1879 (Worcester of NA), 1880 (where was he?) and/or 1881 (Philadelphia of ECA). Goldsmith may deserve credit for 1877 (London of IA), 1878 (London of IA), and/or part of 1879 (Springfield of NA). Bradley may deserve credit for part of 1877 (London of IA), 1878 (London of IA) and/or part of 1879 (Roch/Alb of NA). Wiedman may deserve credit for part of 1880 (Rochester of NA) and/or 1881 (Washington of ECA). Where was McGinnis pre-1882? Welch may deserve credit for 1878 (Pittsburgh of IA) and/or 1879 (Holyoak of NA). H McCormick may deserve credit for 1877 (Syracuse of LA), 1878 (Syracuse of IA) and/or 1880 (Albany of 1880). Richmond may deserve credit for 1879 (Worcester of NA).
   238. Esteban Rivera Posted: October 14, 2010 at 08:24 PM (#3664006)
Professional Era: Pitching Runs

Rk Player PtchR PRUNS/162 G PRUNS/162 IP From To Age G IP
1 Al Spalding 233.04 108.8 13.1 1871 1877 20-26 347 2886.1
2 Tommy Bond 151.57 63.1 7.2 1874 1882 18-26 389 3396.2
3 Will White 144.4 74.5 8.5 1877 1883 22-28 314 2767.1
4 Jim McCormick 138.98 70.4 8.1 1878 1883 21-26 320 2784.2
5 Old Hoss Radbourn 119.51 113.2 13.6 1881 1883 26-28 171 1423.2
6 Jim Devlin 115.13 118.8 13.3 1875 1877 26-28 157 1405
7 Larry Corcoran 112.74 90.0 10.4 1880 1883 20-23 203 1762.1
8 Monte Ward 109.59 62.5 7.4 1878 1883 18-23 284 2409
9 Candy Cummings 104.94 70.2 7.9 1872 1877 23-28 242 2149.2
10 Tim Keefe 102.72 99.1 11.1 1880 1883 23-26 168 1503
11 Dick McBride 98.17 67.1 7.6 1871 1876 24-29 237 2082
12 George Zettlein 90.21 58.5 6.7 1871 1876 26-31 250 2176.2
13 Tony Mullane 76.71 110.0 12.9 1881 1883 22-24 113 965
14 Jim Whitney 65.75 60.2 7.2 1881 1883 23-25 177 1486.1
15 Pud Galvin 64.4 33.0 3.9 1875 1883 18-26 316 2689.1
16 Fred Goldsmith 56.66 56.0 6.6 1879 1883 27-31 164 1391.2
17 Jumbo McGinnis 50.93 91.7 10.7 1882 1883 28-29 90 771
18 Bobby Mathews 48.45 17.4 2.0 1871 1883 19-31 450 3847.1
19 Hugh Daily 26.63 58.3 6.8 1882 1883 34-35 74 634.1
20 George Bradley 24.21 12.8 1.5 1875 1883 22-30 306 2598
21 Cherokee Fisher 14.15 13.9 1.7 1871 1878 26-33 165 1326
22 Ren Deagle 12.84 115.6 14.1 1883 1883 25-25 18 148
23 Sam Weaver 12.7 15.4 1.8 1875 1883 19-27 134 1160.2
24 Stump Wiedman 11.45 14.5 1.8 1880 1883 19-22 128 1042
25 Dupee Shaw 11.23 70.0 8.0 1883 1883 24-24 26 227

Al Spalding leads on this measure. Tommy Bond, Will White and Jim McCormick form a second grouping. Spalding, Cummings, McBride, Zettlein, Mathews and Fisher may deserve pre-Na credit. Asa Brainard also falls into this list (pre-NA credit). Cummings may deserve credit for 1871 (remained amateur because professional NA did not allow wrist snap until 1872), part of 1877 (Lynn of IA), and/or 1878 (New Haven and Hartford of IA). Mathews may deserve credit for part of 1877 (Columbus of IA), 1878 (Worcester of IA), and/or 1880 (in California).
   239. Esteban Rivera Posted: October 14, 2010 at 08:25 PM (#3664008)
Professional Era: Pitching Wins

Rk Player PitchW PWINS/162 G PWINS/162 IP From To Age G IP
1 Al Spalding 18.39 8.6 1.0 1871 1877 20-26 347 2886.1
2 Tommy Bond 14.1 5.9 0.7 1874 1882 18-26 389 3396.2
3 Will White 13.66 7.0 0.8 1877 1883 22-28 314 2767.1
4 Jim McCormick 13.14 6.7 0.8 1878 1883 21-26 320 2784.2
5 Old Hoss Radbourn 11.01 10.4 1.3 1881 1883 26-28 171 1423.2
6 Larry Corcoran 10.69 8.5 1.0 1880 1883 20-23 203 1762.1
7 Jim Devlin 10.6 10.9 1.2 1875 1877 26-28 157 1405
8 Monte Ward 10.47 6.0 0.7 1878 1883 18-23 284 2409
9 Tim Keefe 9.76 9.4 1.1 1880 1883 23-26 168 1503
10 Candy Cummings 8.2 5.5 0.6 1872 1877 23-28 242 2149.2
11 Dick McBride 7.4 5.1 0.6 1871 1876 24-29 237 2082
12 Tony Mullane 7.19 10.3 1.2 1881 1883 22-24 113 965
13 George Zettlein 6.38 4.1 0.5 1871 1876 26-31 250 2176.2
14 Jim Whitney 5.98 5.5 0.7 1881 1883 23-25 177 1486.1
15 Pud Galvin 5.85 3.0 0.4 1875 1883 18-26 316 2689.1
16 Fred Goldsmith 5.39 5.3 0.6 1879 1883 27-31 164 1391.2
17 Jumbo McGinnis 4.7 8.5 1.0 1882 1883 28-29 90 771
18 Bobby Mathews 3.55 1.3 0.1 1871 1883 19-31 450 3847.1
19 George Bradley 2.5 1.3 0.2 1875 1883 22-30 306 2598
20 Hugh Daily 2.39 5.2 0.6 1882 1883 34-35 74 634.1
21 Sam Weaver 1.41 1.7 0.2 1875 1883 19-27 134 1160.2
22 Ren Deagle 1.17 10.5 1.3 1883 1883 25-25 18 148
23 Stump Wiedman 1.17 1.5 0.2 1880 1883 19-22 128 1042
24 Dupee Shaw 1 6.2 0.7 1883 1883 24-24 26 227
25 Cherokee Fisher 0.98 1.0 0.1 1871 1878 26-33 165 1326

Al Spalding leads on this measure. Tommy Bond, Will White and Jim McCormick form a second grouping.
   240. Esteban Rivera Posted: October 14, 2010 at 08:29 PM (#3664012)
Professional Era: Pitcher Batting WAR (includes NA years)

Rk Player WAR/pos From To Age G PA Pos
1 Al Spalding 10 1871 1878 20-27 411 1988 *1/3847956
2 Jim Whitney 6.4 1881 1883 23-25 232 1010 *1/983
3 Monte Ward 6.2 1878 1883 18-23 462 1991 *19/85674
4 George Bradley 2.2 1875 1883 22-30 495 2013 *15/386794
5 Terry Larkin 1.8 1876 1880 20-24 183 739 *1/758649
6 Jim Devlin 1.6 1873 1877 24-28 266 1202 *1/39568
7 Dick McBride 1.3 1871 1876 24-29 240 1209 *1/9
8 Lee Richmond 1.3 1879 1883 22-26 243 1032 *1/978
9 Old Hoss Radbourn 1.3 1880 1883 25-28 250 1034 *1/967843
10 Tim Keefe 1.1 1880 1883 23-26 181 696 *1/854
11 Rynie Wolters 0.9 1871 1873 29-31 49 225 /*195
12 The Only Nolan 0.6 1878 1883 20-25 86 353 /*1875
13 Tony Mullane 0.6 1881 1883 22-24 165 655 *1/83794
14 Tommy Bond 0.3 1874 1882 18-26 444 1808 *1/93485
15 Mickey Welch 0.3 1880 1883 20-23 228 891 *1/897
16 Jersey Bakley 0.1 1883 1883 19-19 8 32 /*18
17 Fred Goldsmith 0.1 1875 1883 23-31 192 777 *1/87394
18 John Valentine 0.1 1883 1883 27-27 16 62 /*1789
19 John Clarkson 0.1 1882 1882 20-20 3 11 /*13
20 Jim Tyng 0.1 1879 1879 23-23 3 14 /*1
21 Foghorn Bradley 0.1 1876 1876 20-20 22 84 /*19
22 Cy Bentley 0.1 1872 1872 21-21 23 115 /*19
23 John Coleman 0 1883 1883 20-20 90 369 /*1784
24 Pete Fries 0 1883 1883 25-25 3 11 /*1
25 Charlie Hodnett 0 1883 1883 22-22 4 13 /*18

That does it for the Professional Era. In a day or two I will post the next one: Rowdyball Era from 1884 to 1900. Hopefully this sparks some discussion.
   241. Esteban Rivera Posted: October 14, 2010 at 08:59 PM (#3664037)
I'll add one more table to complete the Professional Era.

Professional Era: Position Players Top 25

Rk Player WAR/pos WAR/162 G WAR/502 PA From To Age G PA Pos
1 Cap Anson 39.8 7.7 5.2 1871 1883 19-31 833 3834 *352/794681
2 Ross Barnes 33.1 10.7 6.6 1871 1881 21-31 499 2507 *46/571
3 George Wright 28.5 7.8 4.9 1871 1882 24-35 591 2941 *6/4135
4 Deacon White 28 5.6 3.8 1871 1883 23-35 815 3740 2593/47861
5 Paul Hines 27.2 5.5 3.7 1872 1883 17-28 794 3669 *83/4756921
6 Jim O'Rourke 27 5.2 3.4 1872 1883 21-32 844 3940 83759/261
7 Joe Start 25.3 4.9 3.2 1871 1883 28-40 845 3951 *3/987
8 Cal McVey 23 7.0 4.5 1871 1879 21-29 530 2543 32/5918674
9 Tom York 20.2 3.8 2.7 1871 1883 20-32 858 3760 *7/89
10 Ezra Sutton 20.1 4.0 2.8 1871 1883 21-33 822 3577 *56/349128
11 Ned Williamson 19.3 6.5 4.6 1878 1883 20-25 481 2086 *5/24316
12 John Clapp 19.1 5.3 3.6 1872 1883 20-31 588 2635 *2/798364
13 Davy Force 18.2 3.8 2.6 1871 1883 21-33 784 3451 *654/19
14 George Gore 17.5 7.3 5.0 1879 1883 22-26 389 1768 *8/395
15 Jack Burdock 16.7 3.2 2.3 1872 1883 20-31 836 3667 *4/56278
16 Bob Ferguson 15.8 3.1 2.2 1871 1883 26-38 814 3554 54/612
17 King Kelly 15 5.0 3.5 1878 1883 20-25 485 2153 *92/564813
18 John Morrill 14.8 3.9 2.9 1876 1883 21-28 618 2591 *35/4298167
19 Charley Jones 14.4 5.4 3.7 1875 1883 25-33 434 1940 *78/39
20 Jack Farrell 13.7 5.4 3.7 1879 1883 21-25 409 1835 *4/8
21 Lip Pike 13.7 5.2 3.4 1871 1881 26-36 424 2026 *8/946573
22 Dan Brouthers 13.7 7.7 5.4 1879 1883 21-25 289 1283 *3/7195
23 Fred Dunlap 13.7 6.5 4.4 1880 1883 21-24 342 1554 *4/95
24 Charlie Bennett 13.5 6.2 4.6 1878 1883 23-28 352 1473 *2/8459763
25 Roger Connor 13.3 6.2 4.4 1880 1883 22-25 347 1531 *3/587
   242. Bleed the Freak Posted: October 14, 2010 at 10:39 PM (#3664100)
Hello all,

As more data has become pertinent since the last election, I decided to reconstruct my personal hall of merit (PHOM).

However, since many players are close to the margins, I thought I would have the electorate and knowledgeable BBTF scholars weigh in on my dilemma, as this would also shed light on members of the current backlog.

For 2009, I have two spots open for election.

I currently have the following 20 guys as just above the line:

3B Buddy Bell
SP Tommy Bond
3B Ken Boyer
CF Max Carey
RF Gavvy Cravath
SP Red Faber
2B Frank Grant
SP Orel Hershiser
LF Ralph Kiner
C Biz Mackey
SP Jim McCormick
SP Joe McGinnity
C Cal McVey
2B Bill Monroe
SP Billy Pierce
CF Lip Pike
1B George Sisler
SP Dave Stieb
1B Ben Taylor
SP Vic Willis

The next 20 guys are who I am strongly considering for the final two spots:
SS Dave Bancroft
1B Jake Beckley
SP Tommy Bridges
2B Cupid Childs
3B Bus Clarkson
SS David Concepcion
RF Kiki Cuyler
SP Doc Gooden
SP Tommy John
LF Bob Johnson
LF Charley Jones
3B Tommy Leach
LF Joe Medwick
CF Cool Papa Bell
2B Willie Randolph
SP Dick Redding
SP Hilton Smith
SP Luis Tiant
C Joe Torre
3B Ned Williamson

If anyone has some thoughts on whether I should remove any of the 20 just above the line, or who are the best x amount of players on the list, I would greatly appreciate your assistance.
   243. Bleed the Freak Posted: October 14, 2010 at 11:05 PM (#3664117)
After incorporating Sean Smith's WAR into my rankings, Dave Concepcion took a huge hit in my rankings, as WAR sees his value as very low. After re-reading the Chone's WARP and the Hall of Merit thread, I am inclined to realize that the replacement level that WAR is using for 70s shortstops is much too low and is severely underrating Dave Concepcion's true pennant added value.

I will be adding him back to the ballot at ~#11 and to my PHOM, dropping Vic Willis or Orel Hershiser off ballot.

Still at least one spot open though for PHOM.

Ed Williamson comes out smelling like roses in WAR analysis.
Is this someone everyone but Sunnyday/Mark Donelson has overlooked, or are the metrics too unreliable to capture an excellent evaulation on pre-1893 ballplayers.

Thanks guys!

The best discussions on historical players happens right here at the Hall of Merit.
   244. Alex King Posted: October 15, 2010 at 12:39 AM (#3664153)
Esteban mentioned in #234 that Levi Meyerle "may deserve" pre-Na and/or post-MLB credit. Meyerle has a huge peak, but not much career value (using only his MLB+NA stats); are other voters giving him pre-NA or post-MLB credit? His BB-ref page notes that he hit .301 in 1879 in the NA, and I wasn't able to find any information about his pre-1871 career, beside one comment by karlmagnus stating that Meyerle's pre-NA career was unimpressive. Substantial credit (evidence that he performed at a high level on either end of his MLB career) could put Meyerle close to my ballot. Decent credit (2.5 WAR for both 1869 and 1870, and 3 WAR for 1878-1880) puts Meyerle at #30 in my rankings.
   245. DL from MN Posted: October 15, 2010 at 04:00 PM (#3664437)
"After re-reading the Chone's WARP and the Hall of Merit thread, I am inclined to realize that the replacement level that WAR is using for 70s shortstops is much too low"

If you adjust the shortstops up in the 1970s you have to adjust the 3B down to compensate. That means Buddy Bell takes a hit.
   246. bjhanke Posted: October 15, 2010 at 05:49 PM (#3664496)
A couple fo quick notes before I start making a serious list next week:

1. RE: Pie Traynor. You probably have to make an adjustment to accurately evaluate his defensive play. The same is true over at first base with people like George Sisler. At the time, if a corner infielder was Death to Bunts, the opponents would just stop bunting in his direction, thereby artificially lowering his assists totals. This only applies to the very best defenders, of course. Bill James, in the latest Historical Abstract, has a discussion of this effect involving stolen base attempts and Johnny Bench.

2. This is more a warning than a note. Paul Wendt noticed last year that I had all the 1800s pitchers ranked highly within the HoM group. He said that this implies that I think there are more such pitchers who are due to come in. This is true, and I've spent some time in analysis. My current group of 1800s pitchers who are likely to make my ballot are Will White (even after AA discount), Guy Hecker (Guy Hitter), Tony Mullane, and Bobby Mathews (Pud Galvin lite). I'm still trying to figure out Dave Fouts and Silver King, because of the AA years. I have White about 2/3 of the way down the HoM pitchers, similar to where Reggie Smith places among center fielders. This will probably result in my ranking him #1 on this year's ballot, but all the others will be lower. Bagwell is my #2 right now.

3. When dealing with really old catchers (1880s and earlier), the most important thing to look up is which position the player began at. If he started as a catcher and then switched to third base, that's really just the result of a) all the time he's missing due to injuries, b) he's a good enough hitter that the team wants his bat in the lineup every day, and c) he still has that cannon catcher's arm that dictates the move to specifically third base. This is the career of Buck Ewing and Deacon White. Charlie Bennett and Deacon McGuire did not convert nearly as soon because they did not hit nearly as well, so there was no real pressure to move them to somewhere they could play every day. The upshot of this is that, if you find a guy who started at catcher and then moved elsewhere, he's probably a better player than the guy who played 15 years behind the plate.

- Brock Hanke
   247. DL from MN Posted: October 15, 2010 at 06:38 PM (#3664537)
Lave Cross is another example
   248. Esteban Rivera Posted: October 15, 2010 at 09:01 PM (#3664633)
Jack Rowe may also be an example, though he was moved to shortstop. A counterpoint would be Cal McVey, who switched to first.

1. RE: Pie Traynor. You probably have to make an adjustment to accurately evaluate his defensive play. The same is true over at first base with people like George Sisler. At the time, if a corner infielder was Death to Bunts, the opponents would just stop bunting in his direction, thereby artificially lowering his assists totals. This only applies to the very best defenders, of course. Bill James, in the latest Historical Abstract, has a discussion of this effect involving stolen base attempts and Johnny Bench.


I agree with this. I'll talk about this more in-depth when I get around to the Live Ball Era tables, but it surprises me how the thirdbasemen of this era just drop compared to the previous eras in terms of WAR's evaluation (or most metrics for that matter). It almost seems as if we are not calibrating the third base's positional adjustments on the spectrum accurately for this time period.
   249. Paul Wendt Posted: October 15, 2010 at 09:28 PM (#3664641)
Take another look at Bennett's batting record. He was 34 years old when dispersed to Boston for 1889 after 8 seasons at OPS+ 142 with Detroit. His career index "only" 118 reflects how long he held a major league job and the longer seasons late in his career. --and how many games he missed in 1887/88.
   250. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: October 15, 2010 at 10:34 PM (#3664669)
the replacement level that WAR is using for 70s shortstops is much too low


Don't you mean much too high? The higher the replacement level at a position, the less value a player at that position hitting at the league average and fielding at the positional average is credited with...
   251. Esteban Rivera Posted: October 16, 2010 at 02:48 AM (#3665236)
I've posted the tables but here is my final analysis of the period from 1871-1883:

Catcher – The HOM has already elected Deacon White and Cal McVey (Ewing and Bennett too but this includes work from later years). White has a portion of his career post-1883 but appears to be a worthy HOMer already. McVey has some pre-1871 credit and post-1879 credit. Of the remaining catchers in this period, only John Clapp seems to have an argument to be considered. I do find Jack Rowe interesting, since he was a catcher throughout this period along with his later work at SS. In any evaluation of him it should be remembered he actually had about 5 seasons as a catcher at the beginning, which are the shorter schedule seasons of his career.

First Basemen – The HOM has already elected Cap Anson, Joe Start and Cal McVey (also Brouthers, Connor and Stovey but this includes later work). What is amazing is that both Anson and Start appear to be qualified candidates with large portions of their careers not included in this era (Start pre-1871 and Anson post-1883). I do not see any other candidates for this position from this period (I do not think Wes Fisler and Everett Mills become candidates if pre-1871 credit is included).

Second Basemen – The HOM has already elected Ross Barnes (Richardson and McPhee too but this includes later work). Jack Burdock does not add much to his case post-1883 and is likely out from consideration. Bob Ferguson will be discussed with the third basemen. Everyone else needs to do more in the next era to be a candidate (of these Fred Dunlap seems to be the best bet). Jimmy Wood and Al Reach are intriguing possibilities if the 1860’s are considered but that requires more scrutiny.

Third Basemen – The HOM has already elected Ezra Sutton (Richardson also but this includes later work and he is really a 2B). Ned Williamson seems to be close but would benefit from a more complete career perspective (I’ll do this after posting the 1884-1900 tables). Bob Ferguson is an interesting candidate, he could be considered depending on pre-1871 credit (partial 1879 credit would not be enough). The only other possibility is Levi Meyerle. He does not seem to merit any pre-1871 credit but, in my estimation, deserves some credit for 1877-1880. How much exactly would determine if he is a viable candidate or not. Everyone else needs to perform in the next period.

Shortstop – The HOM has already elected George Wright and Dickey Pearce (Glasscock too but this includes later work). Wright qualifies based on this period alone before including pre-1871 credit. Pearce is in due to evaluations of pre-1871 work. The next best candidate is Davy Force, who may have an argument when including 1878 credit and if he deserves any pre-1871 credit.

Outfield – The HOM has already elected Paul Hines, Jim O’Rourke, Charley Jones and Lip Pike (Kelly, Stovey and Browning are also elected but this includes later work). Hines and O’Rourke qualify based on their work in this era already. Jones deserves semi-pro credit before arriving in the NA and the blacklist years credit. Pike is qualified with his pre-1871 work before considering whether to also add credit for 1879-1881. Tom York is the only other candidate with an argument, everyone else needs to do more. John O’Rourke is one player that is frustrating to analyze.

Pitchers (underhand) – The HOM has elected Al Spalding, who towers over other candidates of this period (Galvin, Ward, Keefe and Radbourn are all elected but this includes later work). Still, there is a small group of candidates with an argument: Tommy Bond, Will White and Jim McCormick (Galvin would be included if credit for missing years was included and he was not already elected). The only other pitcher that could be argued for is Larry Corcoran if you are a peak voter. Candy Cummings, Dick McBride, and maybe George Zettlein and Asa Brainard could be candidates when their pre-1871 careers are evaluated, along with any other credit years for Cummings.

If anyone has anything to add please feel free to do so. I'll post the 1884-1900 tables tomorrow.
   252. Juan V Posted: October 16, 2010 at 04:46 AM (#3665543)
We should be getting the band back together soon, no? When does voting start?

I should be able to take a look at my potential ballot after Wednesday, if anyone cares.
   253. DanG Posted: October 16, 2010 at 05:49 AM (#3665567)
When does voting start?
If we follow last year's timetable, it will be Sunday, November 7th.
   254. bjhanke Posted: October 17, 2010 at 11:04 AM (#3666597)
Paul Wendt, comment #249, mentions Charlie Bennett as an example of a catcher who could really hit but who was not moved to third base. I'm a big Bennett fan and, in fact, use his batting as the absolute cutoff point for this effect. Charlie was a tremendous defensive catcher (the best in the league once Buck Ewing got moved, and maybe even before), which is one factor. But the other is that he wasn't a REALLY REALLY good hitter, just a really good one. I found no examples of catchers who moved who did not hit better than Charlie, and no examples of people who hit less who were moved (remembering that I may not have found everyone, and that my methods of evaluation may not be the same as yours, or as the Detroit team's, which would be heavily weighted towards batting average). He's the dividing line. I could certainly see moving him, but Detroit didn't do that, and they could defend that decision. - Brock
   255. bjhanke Posted: October 17, 2010 at 11:22 AM (#3666599)
Esteban mentioned Jim Mc Cormick, and has him higher than some of the guys I intend to tout, bearing in mind that he's using 1883 as a cutoff point. I admit to agonizing over Jim. He didn't hit, and his best partial season was in the Union Association, but there's still a lot there. Right now, he's the best pitcher from the 1800s whom I have below the line. I doubt that anyone here thinks that I have too FEW 1800s pitchers on my list. - Brock
   256. Esteban Rivera Posted: October 17, 2010 at 04:38 PM (#3666690)
As promised I will post the 1884-1900 tables. In my notes I refer to this era as Rowdyball. The lists will once again use a cutoff of 30% career games at the position. Since I am using the Baseball Reference Play Index to generate the tables, the positions listed for each player are in order of most games played (this should help identify multi-position players). Also, an asterisk before the listed positions indicates that more than half of the player's career games are at the first listed position, which will help if one wants to analyze the list without the position part-timers.

A few notes on the Rowdyball Era (1884-1900): Must adjust for differing schedule lengths and account for league strength differences if notable (by league strength I do not refer to ‘timelining’, but comparisons vs. other leagues that year, ex. 1884 UA). Other league credits may apply, but incidence is less than previous era (minors are starting to be defined). Pitching distance changes: 1881-1886 (50 feet), 1887-1892 (50 feet with 55.5 push-off point), 1893-onward (60.5 feet from push-off point). Team movement still occurs until the one league era. Pitching is overhand except for a couple of AA years. Expected schedules were: 1884 – NL, AA & UA are 112 games; 1886 – NL 126 games, AA 140 games, 1888 – NL 140 games; 1890 – PL 140 games; 1892 –NL 154 games (NL is only league from this year up to 1900); 1893 – 130 games; 1898 – 154 games; 1900 – 140 games.

One final note, by this time there are some Negro League candidates starting to appear. These players are not included in the tables but should definitely be considered in any analysis. Following is a not exhaustive list of notable candidates: Clarence Williams (C/OF), Jack Frye (1b/C), Richard Johnson (C/OF), Moses Walker (C/OF), Bud Fowler (2b/P), Frank Grant (2b/3b), Sol White (2b/3b), George Williams (IF), Abe Harrison (SS/OF), Ben Holmes (3b), Arthur Thomas (3b/C), Ben Boyd (OF), George Stovey (P/OF), Robert Higgins (P), William Whyte (LF/P), Shep Trusty (P), William Selden (P/OF).

I will start posting the tables for 1884-1900.
   257. Esteban Rivera Posted: October 17, 2010 at 04:39 PM (#3666691)
Rowdyball Era: Catcher 30% Career Games

Rk Player WAR/pos WAR/162 G WAR/502 PA From To Age G PA Pos
1 Buck Ewing 42.6 6.4 4.5 1884 1897 24-37 1073 4713 239/548617
2 King Kelly 33.5 5.6 3.9 1884 1893 26-35 970 4302 29/4653187
3 Jack Clements 31.9 4.5 3.4 1884 1900 19-35 1160 4721 *2/937865
4 Charlie Bennett 24.5 5.6 4.3 1884 1893 29-38 710 2837 *2/759634
5 Chief Zimmer 23.4 3.3 2.6 1884 1900 23-39 1132 4515 *2/39586
6 Deacon McGuire 21.9 2.7 2.1 1884 1900 20-36 1317 5302 *2/3958671
7 Fred Carroll 20.9 4.5 3.2 1884 1891 19-26 754 3290 *279/8365
8 Duke Farrell 20.4 2.5 1.9 1888 1900 21-33 1319 5375 *25/37986
9 Jocko Milligan 18.8 3.9 2.9 1884 1893 22-31 772 3210 *23/895
10 Doggie Miller 16.7 2.1 1.5 1884 1896 19-31 1318 5695 257/96843
11 Heinie Peitz 10.9 2.4 2.0 1892 1900 21-29 721 2762 *2/536917
12 Mike Grady 10.3 3.1 2.6 1894 1900 24-30 530 1994 *23/596784
13 Ed McFarland 10.3 3.5 2.8 1893 1900 18-25 471 1857 *2/837594
14 Wilbert Robinson 9.7 1.3 1.0 1886 1900 23-37 1212 4824 *2/389
15 Jack O'Connor 9.2 1.3 1.0 1887 1900 21-34 1183 4842 *2938/7645

The standouts are Buck Ewing, King Kelly and Jack Clements. There is a second group of about five to six players, although Charlie Bennett separates from it when pre-1884 is included. Zimmer may deserve credit for 1884 (in OSL), 1885 (where was he?), 1886 (did he play elsewhere besides AA), and/or 1887 (part of season with Rochester of IA). McGuire may deserve credit for part of 1885 (Indianapolis of WL) and/or 1889 (Toronto of IL). Carroll played in California pre -1884 and post 1891, also went to Western League post-1891. Farrell played in NEL (Lawrence/Salem) in 1887. Milligan played in Interstate Association in 1883. Miller played in Interstate Association in 1883 and Western League and elsewhere post-1896. Peitz played in American Association from 1907-1910. Grady played in American Association from 1902-1903. McFarland played in Western League from 1894-1895. Robinson played in NEL for Haverhill in 1885. Jack oÇonnor played in Western League in 1886.
   258. Esteban Rivera Posted: October 17, 2010 at 04:42 PM (#3666692)
Rowdyball Era: First Base 30% Career Games

Rk Player WAR/pos WAR/162 G WAR/502 PA From To Age G PA Pos
1 Roger Connor 73.9 7.3 5.1 1884 1897 26-39 1651 7316 *3/4859
2 Dan Brouthers 70.1 8.2 5.5 1884 1896 26-38 1382 6388 *3/5
3 Cap Anson 59.7 5.7 4.0 1884 1897 32-45 1691 7497 *3/2461
4 Jake Beckley 49.2 5.0 3.5 1888 1900 20-32 1605 7139 *3/8749
5 Dave Orr 27.1 5.7 4.1 1884 1890 24-30 777 3358 *3/981
6 Tommy Tucker 26.2 2.5 1.8 1887 1899 23-35 1688 7273 *3/8917
7 Henry Larkin 23.8 3.3 2.3 1884 1893 24-33 1184 5303 *378/495
8 John Reilly 22.4 3.7 2.7 1884 1891 25-32 971 4214 *3/8796
9 Jack Doyle 22.1 3.1 2.3 1889 1900 19-30 1151 4854 *32/946587
10 Nap Lajoie 19.8 6.5 4.5 1896 1900 21-25 492 2204 *43/9857
11 Dave Foutz 18.1 2.6 1.9 1884 1896 27-39 1136 4859 *319/786
12 Fred Tenney 17.9 4.3 2.9 1894 1900 22-28 675 3071 *3/2978
13 Perry Werden 16.8 3.9 2.7 1884 1897 22-35 695 3079 *3/1789
14 Dan McGann 14.1 5.1 3.7 1896 1900 24-28 448 1906 *3/4
15 Bill Everitt 12.7 3.1 2.1 1895 1900 26-31 665 2987 53/7849
16 Jake Virtue 10.9 3.7 2.7 1890 1894 25-29 474 2056 *3/896541
17 Candy LaChance 10.9 2.6 1.9 1893 1899 23-29 684 2912 *3/62798
18 Sid Farrar 10.4 2.0 1.5 1884 1890 24-30 844 3459 *3
19 John Morrill 10.3 2.6 1.9 1884 1890 29-35 647 2683 *3/46157
20 Patsy Tebeau 9.9 1.4 1.0 1887 1900 22-35 1167 5021 *35/4617

Roger Connor and Dan Brouthers are the top first basemen. Cap Anson and Jake Beckley are also stand outs. Beckley played in Western League/Western Association from 1886-1888. Orr supposedly played for pro teams in Newark, Hartford, and the Brooklyn Alaskas pre-1884 (these cities were represented in the IA/NA but cannot find record of Orr during this time, likely period is 1881-1883). Tucker played in MSA (for Holyoke) in 1884, NEL/EL in 1885, and EL in 1886. Larkin played for Reading of Interstate Association in 1883 and in PSL from 1893 onward. John Reilly played for New York of the LA in 1882 and was ‘off the grid’ for 1881. Foutz played in the NEL from 1883-1884, was he playing somewhere else pre-1883? Tenney played for NEL in 1892,1895 and 1910, and played for Eastern League in 1896. Werden played everywhere around major league stints (check Baseball Reference minors data for list).
   259. Esteban Rivera Posted: October 17, 2010 at 04:43 PM (#3666693)
Rowdyball Era: Second Base 30% Career Games

Rk Player WAR/pos WAR/162 G WAR/502 PA From To Age G PA Pos
1 Bid McPhee 55 4.5 3.2 1884 1899 24-39 1964 8722 *4/985
2 Cupid Childs 46.7 5.4 3.6 1888 1900 20-32 1394 6492 *4/6
3 Monte Ward 33.3 4.0 2.7 1884 1894 24-34 1365 6123 *64/81
4 Hardy Richardson 29.4 5.2 3.5 1884 1892 29-37 911 4178 47/865391
5 Fred Pfeffer 26.8 2.9 2.1 1884 1897 24-37 1490 6418 *4/63189
6 Tom Daly 26.6 3.7 2.7 1884 1900 18-34 1175 4861 *425/39867
7 Bobby Lowe 25.5 3.2 2.3 1890 1900 24-34 1282 5681 *47/86591
8 Fred Dunlap 21 5.5 3.9 1884 1891 25-32 623 2710 *4/189
9 Nap Lajoie 19.8 6.5 4.5 1896 1900 21-25 492 2204 *43/9857
10 Sam Wise 17.7 2.9 2.0 1884 1893 26-35 1000 4414 46/3597
11 Hub Collins 17 4.1 2.7 1886 1892 22-28 680 3130 *47/8635
12 Danny Richardson 16.8 2.4 1.8 1884 1894 21-31 1131 4755 *46/89571
13 Lou Bierbauer 14.4 1.7 1.2 1886 1898 20-32 1385 6034 *4/5216
14 Heinie Reitz 13.9 3.1 2.2 1893 1899 26-32 724 3102 *4/56
15 Gene DeMontreville 13.7 3.5 2.5 1894 1900 21-27 642 2738 *64/583
16 Jack Crooks 13.3 2.7 1.9 1889 1898 23-32 795 3471 *45/67982
17 Pop Smith 11.9 2.2 1.6 1884 1891 27-34 885 3676 *46/5972
18 Yank Robinson 11.4 1.9 1.4 1884 1892 24-32 967 4127 *45/6721938

Bid McPhee and Cupid Childs top the second basemen. Monte Ward, Hardy Richardson and Fred Dunlap have previous era stats that need to be included. McPhee played for Davenport of NWL in 1879 and whereabouts for 1880 and 1881 are unknown. Childs played for Syracuse of IA/IL from 1888-1889. Pfeffer may have played pre-1882 and missed most of 1895 due to suspension. Daly played in CSL/EL in 1885 and EL in 1886. Lowe played for Eau Claire (NWL) in 1887and Milwaukee of WA from 1888-1889. Wise may have played pre-1883. Bierbauer played in the WL in 1899, AL in 1900 and EL from 1901-1902.
   260. Esteban Rivera Posted: October 17, 2010 at 04:44 PM (#3666694)
Rowdyball Era: Third Base 30% Career Games

Rk Player WAR/pos WAR/162 G WAR/502 PA From To Age G PA Pos
1 George Davis 53.1 6.2 4.4 1890 1900 19-29 1382 6122 658/93471
2 John McGraw 43.9 7.5 5.0 1891 1900 18-27 947 4376 *56/49783
3 Billy Nash 36.4 3.8 2.7 1884 1898 19-33 1550 6727 *5/467198
4 Denny Lyons 35.9 5.2 3.6 1885 1897 19-31 1123 5029 *5/3
5 Bill Joyce 33.8 6.0 4.1 1890 1898 24-32 906 4163 *53/47
6 Arlie Latham 32.9 3.5 2.4 1884 1899 24-39 1505 7018 *5/423769
7 Lave Cross 27 3.1 2.2 1887 1900 21-34 1431 6137 *52/964873
8 Jimmy Collins 25.4 5.3 3.8 1895 1900 25-30 770 3353 *5/9864
9 George Pinkney 23 3.2 2.2 1884 1893 25-34 1163 5189 *5/461
10 Billy Shindle 18.9 2.2 1.5 1886 1898 25-37 1424 6351 *56/7
11 Ned Williamson 18.2 4.1 3.0 1884 1890 26-32 720 2996 *65/21
12 Honus Wagner 18 5.9 4.3 1897 1900 23-26 496 2108 95/38471
13 Ezra Sutton 17.5 6.4 4.5 1884 1888 34-38 441 1960 *5/647983
14 Deacon White 15.1 3.3 2.3 1884 1890 36-42 745 3233 *5/37261
15 Jerry Denny 15 2.5 1.8 1884 1894 25-35 970 4080 *5/63498721
16 Bobby Wallace 14.2 3.6 2.6 1894 1900 20-26 640 2710 *56/194873
17 Tom Burns 14.1 2.5 1.9 1884 1892 27-35 901 3709 *56/7984
18 Bill Everitt 12.7 3.1 2.1 1895 1900 26-31 665 2987 53/7849

Davis lost 1903 as a result of the peace agreement between AL and NL. Nash played for Richmond of EL in 1884 and 1885. Lyons played most of 1886 in SA. Joyce played form 1887-1889 in various leagues (WL, TL, IL) and may deserve credit for 1893 (where was he?). Latham played in 1879 (Springfield of NA), 1881 (Philadelphia of ECA) and 1882 (Philadelphia of LA). Cross played in PSA in 1886. Collins played for Buffalo of EL from 1893-1894, Minneapolis of AA in 1909, and Providence of EL from 1910-1911. Pinkney played with Peoria of NWL from 1883-1884. Shindle played in EL in 1885 and post major leagues. Wagner played in Atlantic League from 1896-1897.
   261. Esteban Rivera Posted: October 17, 2010 at 04:45 PM (#3666696)
Rowdyball Era: Shortstop 30% Career Games

Rk Player WAR/pos WAR/162 G WAR/502 PA From To Age G PA Pos
1 George Davis 53.1 6.2 4.4 1890 1900 19-29 1382 6122 658/93471
2 Jack Glasscock 47.4 5.8 4.1 1884 1895 26-37 1315 5806 *6/4139
3 Bill Dahlen 47.2 6.2 4.2 1891 1900 21-30 1241 5600 *65/7849
4 Hughie Jennings 44.5 6.5 4.5 1891 1900 22-31 1112 4951 *63/459
5 Herman Long 43.1 4.6 3.0 1889 1900 23-34 1525 7116 *6/47385
6 Ed McKean 40 3.9 2.6 1887 1899 23-35 1655 7626 *6/743895
7 Monte Ward 33.3 4.0 2.7 1884 1894 24-34 1365 6123 *64/81
8 Germany Smith 24.5 2.3 1.8 1884 1898 21-35 1712 7008 *6/451792
9 Tommy Corcoran 19.5 2.2 1.6 1890 1900 21-31 1438 6270 *6/4
10 Frank Fennelly 19.1 3.9 2.8 1884 1890 24-30 786 3451 *6/4587
11 Ned Williamson 18.2 4.1 3.0 1884 1890 26-32 720 2996 *65/21
12 Jack Rowe 18 4.0 2.7 1884 1890 27-33 731 3304 *6/2879
13 Sam Wise 17.7 2.9 2.0 1884 1893 26-35 1000 4414 46/3597
14 Bobby Wallace 14.2 3.6 2.6 1894 1900 20-26 640 2710 *56/194873
15 Gene DeMontreville 13.7 3.5 2.5 1894 1900 21-27 642 2738 *64/583
16 Bob Allen 12.6 3.4 2.5 1890 1900 22-32 607 2532 *6/84
17 Pop Smith 11.9 2.2 1.6 1884 1891 27-34 885 3676 *46/5972

Davis lost 1903 as a result of the peace agreement between AL and NL. Jennings was in EL from 1903-1907. Long was in the WA/WL in 1887 and 1888. McKean played in SL, IL and EL in 1885 and 1886. G Smith was with Minneapolis of WL/AL in 1899 and 1900. Corcoran was in the Atlantic Association in 1889. Fennelly was with Philadelphia of LA in 1882 and in the Interstate Association in 1883. Rowe (besides previously mentioned possible credits) left majors after the players league season for the WA and EL from 1891-1893 (last two seasons with Buffalo).
   262. Esteban Rivera Posted: October 17, 2010 at 04:46 PM (#3666699)
Rowdyball Era: OF 30% Career Games

Rk Player WAR/pos WAR/162 G WAR/502 PA From To Age G PA Pos
1 Billy Hamilton 67 7.3 4.7 1888 1900 22-34 1492 7183 *879
2 Ed Delahanty 59.8 6.3 4.2 1888 1900 20-32 1533 7069 *7384/695
3 Hugh Duffy 48.1 4.8 3.3 1888 1900 21-33 1624 7426 879/64532
4 Sam Thompson 46.7 5.4 3.6 1885 1898 25-38 1402 6493 *9/783
5 Jesse Burkett 46.2 5.5 3.6 1890 1900 21-31 1360 6422 *79/184
6 Mike Tiernan 45.9 5.0 3.4 1887 1899 20-32 1478 6732 *978/1
7 Mike Griffin 45.2 4.8 3.3 1887 1898 22-33 1513 6848 *8/6947
8 Joe Kelley 43.8 6.4 4.4 1891 1900 19-28 1113 5032 *78/3569
9 George Van Haltren 41.6 3.9 2.6 1887 1900 21-34 1745 7983 *879/16453
10 Jimmy Ryan 41.1 3.7 2.5 1885 1900 22-37 1780 8110 897/6145
11 Willie Keeler 40.5 6.8 4.5 1892 1900 20-28 962 4547 *9/57486
12 Harry Stovey 36.9 5.2 3.5 1884 1893 27-36 1150 5282 7398/1
13 King Kelly 33.5 5.6 3.9 1884 1893 26-35 970 4302 29/4653187
14 Mike Smith 32 4.3 3.0 1886 1900 18-32 1217 5352 *719/8
15 Tip O'Neill 31.1 4.9 3.4 1884 1892 26-34 1029 4633 *7/183
16 Hardy Richardson 29.4 5.2 3.5 1884 1892 29-37 911 4178 47/865391
17 Oyster Burns 29 4.0 2.8 1884 1895 19-30 1188 5160 *967/51483
18 George Gore 28.4 5.0 3.3 1884 1892 27-35 921 4336 *8/79
19 Pete Browning 28.3 4.5 3.1 1884 1894 23-33 1030 4620 87/59341
20 Jim O'Rourke 26.9 3.8 2.6 1884 1893 33-42 1154 5108 *7829/3514
21 Kip Selbach 25.6 4.6 3.2 1894 1900 22-28 892 3998 *7/8964
22 Bill Lange 25.1 5.0 3.5 1893 1899 22-28 813 3620 *8/4376529
23 Henry Larkin 23.8 3.3 2.3 1884 1893 24-33 1184 5303 *378/495
24 Dummy Hoy 23.3 2.4 1.6 1888 1899 26-37 1593 7408 *8/794
25 Fred Clarke 23.1 4.3 2.9 1894 1900 21-27 873 3936 *7/689

Hamilton played in EL in 1887 and the NEL for part of 1888, went back to NEL after 1901. Duffy played in the EL and NEL from 1886-1887 and played in the WL from 1902-1903. Thompson played in NWL in 1884 and WL for part of 1885 (was apparently a late starter playing baseball); supposedly played on semi-pro teams after 1898 due to Philadelphia not releasing him from reserve clause. Burkett played in CL in 1889, Atlantic Association in 1890 and WA fir part of 1891; after majors played in NEL. Tiernan played in EL in 1885 and 1886. Griffin played in NYSL in 1885 and IL in 1886; left baseball as fallout of contract squabble due to syndication ownership of Brooklyn and Baltimore. Kelley played in WL for part of 1892 and was in the EL in 1907, 1909-1910. Van Haltren played in California in 1885 and intermittently (at least in available records) up to 1896; also played in PCL from 1904-1909 (pitching WAR credit is almost a wash). Ryan played in CSL and MSA in 1884, EL and SNEL in 1885 and the WL in 1901 and 1904. Keeler played in EL for parts of 1892 and 1893. Smith played in the Western Association from 1890-1891 and was in the AA from 1902-1904 (also ahs some pitching WAR). O’Neill played for New York of LA in 1882 and may deserve credit pre-1882. Burns was in EL for parts of 1884 and 1885 and all of 1886. Browning was in PSL for part of 1894 and in WL for 1896. Lange was out west from 1891-1892. Hoy was in the NWL from 1886-1887, AL in 1900, and PCL in 1903.
   263. Esteban Rivera Posted: October 17, 2010 at 04:47 PM (#3666700)
Rowdyball Era: LF 30% Career Games

Rk Player WAR/pos WAR/162 G WAR/502 PA From To Age G PA Pos
1 Ed Delahanty 59.8 6.3 4.2 1888 1900 20-32 1533 7069 *7384/695
2 Hugh Duffy 48.1 4.8 3.3 1888 1900 21-33 1624 7426 879/64532
3 Jesse Burkett 46.2 5.5 3.6 1890 1900 21-31 1360 6422 *79/184
4 Joe Kelley 43.8 6.4 4.4 1891 1900 19-28 1113 5032 *78/3569
5 Harry Stovey 36.9 5.2 3.5 1884 1893 27-36 1150 5282 7398/1
6 Mike Smith 32 4.3 3.0 1886 1900 18-32 1217 5352 *719/8
7 Tip O'Neill 31.1 4.9 3.4 1884 1892 26-34 1029 4633 *7/183
8 Hardy Richardson 29.4 5.2 3.5 1884 1892 29-37 911 4178 47/865391
9 Pete Browning 28.3 4.5 3.1 1884 1894 23-33 1030 4620 87/59341
10 Jim O'Rourke 26.9 3.8 2.6 1884 1893 33-42 1154 5108 *7829/3514
11 Kip Selbach 25.6 4.6 3.2 1894 1900 22-28 892 3998 *7/8964
12 Fred Clarke 23.1 4.3 2.9 1894 1900 21-27 873 3936 *7/869
13 Tommy McCarthy 19 2.4 1.7 1884 1896 20-32 1273 5739 *97/45861
14 Hub Collins 17 4.1 2.7 1886 1892 22-28 680 3130 *47/8635
15 Darby O'Brien 14.6 3.3 2.3 1887 1892 23-28 709 3128 *7/839615
16 Walt Wilmot 13.8 2.3 1.6 1888 1898 24-34 962 4382 *78/9
17 George Wood 11.3 2.0 1.3 1884 1892 25-33 936 4273 *7/956148
18 Charley Jones 11.1 3.9 2.7 1884 1888 34-38 460 2069 *78/913

McCarthy played in NEL, EL and NWL for parts of 1885-1887. O’Brien played in the NWL and WL from 1884-1886. Wilmot played in the NWL from 1886-1887, played in the WL/AL/WA from 1896-1901 and the AA from 1902-1903.
   264. Esteban Rivera Posted: October 17, 2010 at 04:48 PM (#3666701)
Rowdyball Era: CF 30% Career Games

Rk Player WAR/pos WAR/162 G WAR/502 PA From To Age G PA Pos
1 Billy Hamilton 67 7.3 4.7 1888 1900 22-34 1492 7183 *879
2 Hugh Duffy 48.1 4.8 3.3 1888 1900 21-33 1624 7426 879/64532
3 Mike Griffin 45.2 4.8 3.3 1887 1898 22-33 1513 6848 *8/6947
4 George Van Haltren 41.6 3.9 2.6 1887 1900 21-34 1745 7983 *879/16453
5 Jimmy Ryan 41.1 3.7 2.5 1885 1900 22-37 1780 8110 897/6145
6 George Gore 28.4 5.0 3.3 1884 1892 27-35 921 4336 *8/79
7 Pete Browning 28.3 4.5 3.1 1884 1894 23-33 1030 4620 87/59341
8 Bill Lange 25.1 5.0 3.5 1893 1899 22-28 813 3620 *8/4376529
9 Dummy Hoy 23.3 2.4 1.6 1888 1899 26-37 1593 7408 *8/794
10 Curt Welch 21.1 3.1 2.1 1884 1893 22-31 1107 4939 *8/473621
11 Jake Stenzel 20.7 4.4 3.0 1890 1899 23-32 768 3425 *8/927643
12 Bug Holliday 17.7 3.1 2.2 1889 1898 22-31 930 4051 *87/93641
13 Steve Brodie 16.5 2.1 1.5 1890 1899 21-30 1245 5536 *89/475
14 Jim Fogarty 15.4 3.3 2.4 1884 1890 20-26 751 3264 98/5461
15 Paul Hines 14.6 2.7 1.9 1884 1891 29-36 864 3801 *83/56471
16 Fielder Jones 12.8 3.3 2.3 1896 1900 24-28 623 2807 *98/76
17 Tom Brown 12.4 1.2 0.8 1884 1898 23-37 1646 7579 *89/71
18 Jim McTamany 11.8 2.4 1.6 1885 1891 21-27 813 3682 *8/97
19 Ned Hanlon 11.1 1.9 1.4 1884 1892 26-34 936 4125 *8/7649
20 Roy Thomas 9.9 5.5 3.6 1899 1900 25-26 290 1377 *8/31

Welch played in NWL in 1883 and EL in 1894-1895. Stenzel played in various leagues from 1887-1892, including out west. Holliday played in the WL, NWL and WA from 1886-1888. Brodie played in AL in 1900 and EL post-1902. Fogarty was in California in1883. F Jones was out west in 1893, EL in 1894-1895, and Atlantic League in 1896. Brown played out in California 1878-1882 and the EL in 1899. McTamanay played in the EL in 1884-1885 and 1892. Hanlon played for NEL in 1877, Rochester of IA in 1878 and Albany of NA in 1879.
   265. Esteban Rivera Posted: October 17, 2010 at 04:49 PM (#3666702)
Rowdyball Era: RF 30% Career Games

Rk Player WAR/pos WAR/162 G WAR/502 PA From To Age G PA Pos
1 Sam Thompson 46.7 5.4 3.6 1885 1898 25-38 1402 6493 *9/783
2 Mike Tiernan 45.9 5.0 3.4 1887 1899 20-32 1478 6732 *978/1
3 Jimmy Ryan 41.1 3.7 2.5 1885 1900 22-37 1780 8110 897/6145
4 Willie Keeler 40.5 6.8 4.5 1892 1900 20-28 962 4547 *9/57486
5 King Kelly 33.5 5.6 3.9 1884 1893 26-35 970 4302 29/4653187
6 Oyster Burns 29 4.0 2.8 1884 1895 19-30 1188 5160 *967/51483
7 Tommy McCarthy 19 2.4 1.7 1884 1896 20-32 1273 5739 *97/45861
8 Bob Caruthers 18.8 4.3 3.2 1884 1893 20-29 705 2906 19/7834
9 Honus Wagner 18 5.9 4.3 1897 1900 23-26 496 2108 95/38471
10 Elmer Flick 16.9 6.9 4.9 1898 1900 22-24 399 1734 *9
11 Chick Stahl 15.9 4.9 3.5 1897 1900 24-27 523 2302 *9/781
12 Jim Fogarty 15.4 3.3 2.4 1884 1890 20-26 751 3264 98/5461
13 Fielder Jones 12.8 3.3 2.3 1896 1900 24-28 623 2807 *98/76
14 Paul Radford 10 1.3 0.9 1884 1894 22-32 1289 5555 *968/5471
15 Patsy Donovan 10 1.2 0.8 1890 1900 25-35 1330 6090 *97/8
16 Chicken Wolf 9.3 1.5 1.0 1884 1892 22-30 1020 4509 *9/63527481
17 Tom McCreery 8.4 2.5 1.9 1895 1900 20-25 536 2260 *98/764135
18 Dusty Miller 8.2 2.0 1.4 1889 1899 20-30 656 2840 *9/876
19 Ed Swartwood 8.1 2.4 1.7 1884 1892 25-33 553 2457 *9/7832165
20 Jimmy Sheckard 7.2 3.3 2.5 1897 1900 18-21 350 1461 79/6835

Caruthers was in NWL in 1883-1884, and in the WL/WA from 1894-1896/1898 (along with pitching credit). Stahl was in EL in 1896. Donovan was in the NEL from 1886-1887 and the IA/IL from 1888-1889. Wolf was in EL in 1892-1893, may deserve pre-1882 credit with Louisville.
   266. Esteban Rivera Posted: October 17, 2010 at 04:51 PM (#3666706)
Rowdyball Era: Pitchers (does not include batting)

Rk Player WAR WAR/162 G WAR/162 IP From To Age G IP
1 Kid Nichols 91.3 28.5 3.5 1890 1900 20-30 519 4228
2 Cy Young 85 27.3 3.4 1890 1900 23-33 505 4043.2
3 John Clarkson 83.2 25.5 3.0 1884 1894 22-32 528 4512.1
4 Amos Rusie 61.9 21.8 2.7 1889 1898 18-27 460 3756.2
5 Tim Keefe 57.7 21.6 2.6 1884 1893 27-36 432 3546.2
6 Silver King 53.8 22.0 2.7 1886 1897 18-29 397 3180.2
7 Bob Caruthers 52.6 25.1 3.0 1884 1892 20-28 340 2828.2
8 Tony Mullane 52.3 19.2 2.4 1884 1894 25-35 442 3566.1
9 Charlie Buffinton 51.8 22.9 2.8 1884 1892 23-31 366 3029
10 Mickey Welch 48.3 21.0 2.5 1884 1892 24-32 373 3153
11 Old Hoss Radbourn 48.2 21.9 2.5 1884 1891 29-36 356 3103.2
12 Gus Weyhing 47 14.2 1.8 1887 1900 20-33 537 4316.2
13 Ed Morris 43.9 22.9 2.7 1884 1890 21-27 311 2678
14 Jack Stivetts 42.5 17.7 2.4 1889 1899 21-31 388 2887.2
15 Pud Galvin 42.2 17.6 2.1 1884 1892 27-35 389 3314
16 Ted Breitenstein 41 17.6 2.2 1891 1900 22-31 377 2958.1
17 Sadie McMahon 40.5 20.4 2.5 1889 1897 21-29 321 2634
18 Clark Griffith 39.3 21.3 2.6 1891 1900 21-30 299 2415
19 Frank Dwyer 37.9 16.8 2.2 1888 1899 20-31 366 2819
20 Bill Hutchinson 36.9 15.9 1.9 1884 1897 24-37 376 3079.1
21 Nig Cuppy 35.4 19.8 2.6 1892 1900 22-30 289 2189.2
22 Ice Box Chamberlin 33 16.7 2.1 1886 1896 18-28 321 2521.2
23 Adonis Terry 31.8 11.7 1.5 1884 1897 19-32 440 3514.1
24 Dave Foutz 30 19.4 2.4 1884 1894 27-37 251 1997.1
25 Pink Hawley 29.7 13.1 1.7 1892 1900 19-27 367 2830.1

Nichols was in the WL/WA from 1887-1889 and in the WL from 1902-1903. Clarkson played for Saginaw of NWL in 1883 and part of 1884. Rusie has a few labor disputes (sat out 1896, 1899 and 1900). King played part of 1886 in WL. Buffinton played in California in 1878-1879 and resurfaces with Philadelphia of LA in 1882. Weyhing played in the WA for part of 1901 and the AA in 1902. Morris played in California from 1879-1883, also played with Philadelphia of LA in 1882. Stivetts played in CPL from 1887-1888. Breitenstein played in the SA from 1902 onward. Griffith played in the WA from 1888-1890, the MSL in 1892 and in California in 1892-1893. Hutchinson played in the NWL in 1883 and 1887, in the WA in 1888 and in the WL in 1896-1897 and 1899. Where was he from 1885-1886?
   267. Esteban Rivera Posted: October 17, 2010 at 04:52 PM (#3666707)
Rowdyball Era: Pitcher (30% career games)Batting WAR

Rk Player WAR/pos From To Age G PA Pos
1 Bob Caruthers 18.8 1884 1893 20-29 705 2906 19/7834
2 Jack Stivetts 10.5 1889 1899 21-31 601 2148 *1/9783654
3 Charlie Ferguson 6.9 1884 1887 21-24 257 1078 *1/48975
4 Guy Hecker 5.8 1884 1890 28-34 546 2363 13/798
5 Ad Gumbert 5 1888 1896 19-27 296 1049 *1/7893
6 Adonis Terry 4.5 1884 1897 19-32 667 2555 *1/798635
7 Frank Killen 4.1 1891 1900 20-29 335 1148 *1/79
8 Tony Mullane 3.9 1884 1894 25-35 619 2316 *1/5789364
9 Scott Stratton 3.9 1888 1895 18-25 391 1518 *1/9738
10 Win Mercer 3.8 1894 1900 20-26 480 1691 *1/5698743
11 Tom Parrott 3.2 1893 1896 25-28 281 1062 1/8397546
12 Al Maul 3.1 1884 1900 18-34 407 1570 1/79386
13 Jouett Meekin 3 1891 1900 24-33 339 1172 *1/9873
14 Al Orth 2.9 1895 1900 22-27 189 619 *1/879
15 Ben Sanders 2.8 1888 1892 23-27 247 1001 *1/97385
16 Jim Whitney 2.7 1884 1890 26-32 318 1296 *1/83975
17 Brickyard Kennedy 2.5 1892 1900 24-32 371 1227 *1/9
18 Billy Taylor 2.5 1884 1887 29-32 90 372 /*139872
19 Nixey Callahan 2.1 1894 1900 20-26 225 867 *1/4687953
20 Jesse Tannehill 2.1 1894 1900 19-25 203 651 *1/879
21 Clark Griffith 2 1891 1900 21-30 321 1166 *1/986735
22 Pat Luby 1.9 1890 1895 21-26 132 477 *1/9837
23 Charlie Buffinton 1.9 1884 1892 23-31 485 1910 *1/3897
24 Matt Kilroy 1.8 1886 1898 20-32 330 1189 *1/97865
25 Phenomenal Smith 1.8 1884 1891 19-26 148 530 *1/7
   268. Esteban Rivera Posted: October 17, 2010 at 04:56 PM (#3666710)
Rowdyball Era: Top 25 Position Players

Rk Player WAR/pos WAR/162 G WAR/502 PA From To Age G PA Pos
1 Roger Connor 73.9 7.3 5.1 1884 1897 26-39 1651 7316 *3/4859
2 Dan Brouthers 70.1 8.2 5.5 1884 1896 26-38 1382 6388 *3/5
3 Billy Hamilton 67 7.3 4.7 1888 1900 22-34 1492 7183 *879
4 Ed Delahanty 59.8 6.3 4.2 1888 1900 20-32 1533 7069 *7384/695
5 Cap Anson 59.7 5.7 4.0 1884 1897 32-45 1691 7497 *3/2461
6 Bid McPhee 55 4.5 3.2 1884 1899 24-39 1964 8722 *4/985
7 George Davis 53.1 6.2 4.4 1890 1900 19-29 1382 6122 658/93471
8 Jake Beckley 49.2 5.0 3.5 1888 1900 20-32 1605 7139 *3/8749
9 Hugh Duffy 48.1 4.8 3.3 1888 1900 21-33 1624 7426 879/64532
10 Jack Glasscock 47.4 5.8 4.1 1884 1895 26-37 1315 5806 *6/4139
11 Bill Dahlen 47.2 6.2 4.2 1891 1900 21-30 1241 5600 *65/7849
12 Sam Thompson 46.7 5.4 3.6 1885 1898 25-38 1402 6493 *9/783
13 Cupid Childs 46.7 5.4 3.6 1888 1900 20-32 1394 6492 *4/6
14 Jesse Burkett 46.2 5.5 3.6 1890 1900 21-31 1360 6422 *79/184
15 Mike Tiernan 45.9 5.0 3.4 1887 1899 20-32 1478 6732 *978/1
16 Mike Griffin 45.2 4.8 3.3 1887 1898 22-33 1513 6848 *8/6947
17 Hughie Jennings 44.5 6.5 4.5 1891 1900 22-31 1112 4951 *63/459
18 John McGraw 43.9 7.5 5.0 1891 1900 18-27 947 4376 *56/49783
19 Joe Kelley 43.8 6.4 4.4 1891 1900 19-28 1113 5032 *78/3569
20 Herman Long 43.1 4.6 3.0 1889 1900 23-34 1525 7116 *6/47385
21 Buck Ewing 42.6 6.4 4.5 1884 1897 24-37 1073 4713 239/548617
22 George Van Haltren 41.6 3.9 2.6 1887 1900 21-34 1745 7983 *879/16453
23 Jimmy Ryan 41.1 3.7 2.5 1885 1900 22-37 1780 8110 897/6145
24 Willie Keeler 40.5 6.8 4.5 1892 1900 20-28 962 4547 *9/57486
25 Ed McKean 40 3.9 2.6 1887 1899 23-35 1655 7626 *6/743895

This does it for the Rowdyball Era (1884-1900) tables. I'll provide a summary analysis later for each position. Afterwards, I will post the complete Nineteenth Century tables (1871-1900).
   269. Paul Wendt Posted: October 17, 2010 at 08:08 PM (#3666791)
>>1893 – 130 games
1893 to 1897, 132 games scheduled: twelve with each of 11 colleagues.

>>Foutz played in the NEL from 1883-1884, was he playing somewhere else pre-1883?
That is NWL, Bay City, Michigan.
Dave Foutz joined the gold rush. He did find gold in Colorado but did find that he was a dominating baseball player there, on amateur teams of miners (iirc from SABR biography). He returned East in 1883 almost 27 years old. He performed very well and earned a big major league contract mid-1884.

>>Hutchinson played in the NWL in 1883 and 1887, in the WA in 1888 and in the WL in 1896-1897 and 1899. Where was he from 1885-1886?
I don't know where Bill Hutchinson was (I guess Chicago region) or what he was doing. He was a college man, Yale 1878-1881. IIRC reading, he planned or expected a different career but it didn't work out as he P or E. I don't know whether he turned decisively to baseball before 1887. He made the major leagues just before age 30 and dominated from the 50' to 55'6 pitchers box at ages 30.4 to 32.10 yr.mo.

Hugh Duffy played part-time for teams that he managed in the 19-aughts. The SABR database via baseball-reference lists Milwaukee AL 1901 (semi-regular CF in majors), Milwaukee WL 1902-1903 (in losing competition with Milwaukee AA), and Providence EL 1907-1908. He was still a good pinch-hitter for Providence then at ages 40.5 to 41.11 yr.mo.
   270. Paul Wendt Posted: October 17, 2010 at 08:29 PM (#3666795)
The numbers of games played did not change as much as the numbers scheduled.

sched play
140 138.0 ; AA 1886-91 (only 135 in 1890)
140 135.5 ; NL 1888-91
154 153.5 ; NL 1892
132 132.5 ; NL 1893-97
154 153.5 ; NL 1898-99

Ignoring the odd half-game, the average numbers of games played were about 136, 153, and 132 under the 140, 154, and 132 games schedules of 1886(AA) to 1899. From 1898 to 1917 broadly, the games played increased slightly relative to the games scheduled.

140 139.6 ; all 1900-03
154 154.8 ; all 1904-09
154 155.4 ; all 1910-17

Years later, for reference,
154 154.7 ; all 1950-59
   271. Esteban Rivera Posted: October 17, 2010 at 09:01 PM (#3666805)
Thanks Paul for providing a more exact view of the schedules and for all of the additional insight and clarification you continue to provide.

As promised, here is my final analysis of the period from 1884-1900.

Catcher – The HOM has already elected Buck Ewing, King Kelly and Charlie Bennett. Of the others, Jack Clements is the only one that separates himself from the rest. There is a second group comprised of Chief Zimmer, Deacon McGuire, Fred Carroll, Duke Farrell, Jocko Milligan and Doggie Miller. My initial review has Zimmer and McGuire as borderline candidates, with Carroll having a peak argument. Farrell, Milligan and Miller do not have enough for consideration (Farrell may add more in the next few years but at this moment is not there). Clarence Williams and Jack Frye are interesting possibilities also.

First Basemen – The HOM has already elected Dan Brouthers, Roger Connor, Cap Anson and Jake Beckley. Of the remaining candidates, only Dave Orr presents an argument, albeit a peak one.

Second Basemen – The HOM has already elected Bid McPhee, Cupid Childs, Monte Ward (more SS in this era), Hardy Richardson (more OF in this era) and Frank Grant (Lajoie too but this includes later work). There is a group comprised of Fred Pfeffer, Tom Daly, Bobby Lowe and Fred Dunlap. None of them present enough to be viable at first glance. However, there is the question of Pfeffer receiving credit, Daly being a catcher for the first years of his career, if Lowe can add anything more, and Dunlap has his pre-1884 career to be included (I’ll give my final analysis when the full 19th century is viewed). Still, even handling these issues, it’s likely that only Dunlap presents a viable case. We have also discussed in the past Bud Fowler and Sol White, and I would add George Williams as a possibility.

Third Basemen – The HOM has already elected George Davis (also a 3B and CF during this period) and John McGraw (also Wagner, Sutton, White and Wallace but this is including other work). Ned Williamson will be discussed in the final 19th century table (it should be noted he was more SS than 3B in this era). Billy Nash, Denny Lyons, Bill Joyce and Arlie Latham are all clustered in the second tier.

Shortstop – The HOM has already elected George Davis (also 3B and CF during this period), Jack Glasscock, Bill Dahlen, Hughie Jennings and Monte Ward (also 2B during this period). The two notable candidates remaining are Herman Long and Ed McKean. Germany Smith, who has a wonderful defensive reputation, is the best of the also-rans.

Outfield – The HOM has already elected Billy Hamilton (CF), Ed Delahanty (LF), Sam Thompson (RF), Jesse Burkett (LF), Joe Kelley (LF and includes some alter work), Willie Keeler (RF, and includes alter work), Harry Stovey (also 1B and includes earlier work) and King Kelly (RF/C and includes earlier work). Also elected were Gore, Browning, O’Rourke and Clarke but this includes other work. Of the remaining candidates, Hugh Duffy is third overall among outfielders, playing all three positions mostly CF/LF. Also notable are Mike Tiernan (RF), Mike Griffin (CF), George Van Haltren (CF) and Jimmy Ryan (CF/RF). Two other players may be candidates when including other credit: Elmer Smith (LF, listed as Mike, he has pitching credit) and Tip O’Neill (LF, he has pre-1884 credit).

I would like to include the top five for each OF position if a 50% game cutoff at the position is used:

Left Field – 1) Ed Delahanty, 2) Jesse Burkett, 3) Joe Kelley, 4) Elmer Smith, 5) Tip O’Neill

Center Field – 1) Billy Hamilton, 2) Mike Griffin, 3) George Van Haltren, 4) George Gore, 5) Bill Lange (a shame he decided to leave)

Right Field – 1) Sam Thompson, 2) Mike Tiernan, 3) Willie Keeler, 4) Oyster Burns, 5) Tommy McCarthy (19 WAR)

Pitchers – The HOM has elected Kid Nichols, Cy Young (includes later work but already qualified), John Clarkson, Amos Rusie, Tim Keefe (includes some earlier work), Bob Caruthers (includes batting), Old Hoss Radbourn (includes earlier work), Pud Galvin (includes earlier work) and Clark Griffith (includes later work). Candidates remaining include Silver King, Tony Mullane (also has pre-1884 work), Charlie Buffinton (also has pre-1884 work), Mickey Welch (also has pre-1884 work) and Jack Stivetts (if batting is included). Gus Weyhing and Ed Morris (even with some pre-1884 credit) do not add much more outside of this period and are likely out. We have previously discussed George Stovey, the best NgL pitching candidate of this era.

A final look at all of the 19th century would help clear things up. I will post these tables sometime in the next few days.
   272. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: October 21, 2010 at 05:06 PM (#3671228)
Ok the following list is NOT a proposed Ballot
what I did was to take BBREF/Sean Smiths' WAR figures and recalculate a baseline for each WAR element (batting Runs, Fielding Runs, ROE runs etc) based upon historical "averages" for each position (To determine averages I used only players with 900+ career PAs)- there are no adjustments for league quality, WWII or MLE credit; no pitchers (as I said, it is not a ballot)

The number to the right is a runs above "average" figure:
1    Jeff Bagwell    495
2    Larry Walker    328.7
3    Mike Griffin    313.4
4    Hugh Duffy    312.9
5    Gene Tenace    312.7
6    Mike Tiernan    296.8
7    Denny Lyons    257.4
8    Bob Johnson    256.3
9    Frank Chance    250.7
10    Sal Bando    250.3
11    Johnny Evers    245
12    Jack Clark    243.2
13    Larry Doyle    240.6
14    Tip O
'Neill    239.8
15    Wally Schang    239.2
16    Vern Stephens    235.1
17    Ed McKean    233.8
18    Bob Elliott    225
19    Thurman Munson    224.7
20    Norm Cash    223.1
21    Tony Lazzeri    222.5
22    Ernie Lombardi    219.2
23    Herman Long    219
24    Kiki Cuyler    218.4
25    Rafael Palmeiro    218.1
26    Earle Combs    215.3
27    Buddy Bell    213.2
28    John Olerud    211.8
29    Hack Wilson    210
30    Bobby Bonds    209.9 

obviously still needs some tweaking... Tenace for instance should have 269 rather than 313, I have to do invidualized position averages for some players more than others...


But who the eff is Mike Griffin?
   273. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: October 21, 2010 at 05:50 PM (#3671271)
But who the eff is Mike Griffin?


Way back in the 1910s to 1930s ballots he'd pick up a vote or two, every now and then gets a bubbling under mention, has serious league quality issues his first 4 years, + short career.
No decline phase, walked away from the game "early" due to a dispute with team owners- reputedly a defensive whiz...
   274. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: October 28, 2010 at 12:45 PM (#3677914)
Hey guys, just wanted to check in . . . I'll be trying to catch up on the discussion over the next few days . . . please send me an email if there's anything in particular I should check out right away, etc.. Thanks!

Hope everyone has been well and glad to see everything is moving along. I think I need to go through and unlock a bunch of threads that were created by John Murphy as well.
   275. Paul Wendt Posted: October 28, 2010 at 07:45 PM (#3678355)
Mike Griffin scored thirteen votes in 1910 with a support profile similar to Pete Browning and Mike Tiernan, who were also-rans while Duffy, Ryan, and Van Haltren were contenders. Browning rallied while the others faded.

Eventually he won a lawsuit for most of his 1899 salary as player and captain/manager. The Baltimore-Brooklyn merger was consummated by moving Ned Hanlon to the Brooklyn dugout and promoting John McGraw to captain/manager in Baltimore. Griffin declined the pay cut and showed up for work opening day, per legal advice, then returned to his pub in Utica NY.
   276. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: October 28, 2010 at 10:35 PM (#3678499)
Juan V, post 253:

We should be getting the band back together soon, no? When does voting start?


I just sent an email to the Hall of Merit Yahoo email list, so hopefully that helps in terms of getting the band back together.

In terms of when should voting start, I know we had said that we want to have our election before ballots are mailed to the BBWAA - but is that too early? To be finished before Thanksgiving? Will our results be old news by the time writers are thinking about their ballots?

Do we want to time it more mid-cycle? But we also have to account for the mock BBWAA style elections over the holidays too. Just brainstorming . . . should I set up a thread to discuss this?
   277. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: October 28, 2010 at 10:37 PM (#3678502)
Esteban, your lists are great!

Do you know that you can format them with pre tags so that your spaces are recognized and everything will line up? Would make them much easier to read.
   278. Esteban Rivera Posted: October 29, 2010 at 03:50 PM (#3679317)
Thanks Joe. I would love for the tables to line up but I must admit I am out of my element in using pre tags for formatting. If anyone can explain how to do this I could try for the next set (I hope to post them this weekend).
   279. DL from MN Posted: October 29, 2010 at 04:34 PM (#3679362)
I'd like it done before Thanksgiving. I thought we had this decided last year.
   280. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: October 29, 2010 at 06:14 PM (#3679464)
I thought last year we ran into the week or so after Thanksgiving, early December. Is that really an issue?

Esteban it's easy to format using pre tags.

Just type the word 'pre' inbetween [] at the beginning of the text you want formatted. At the end do the same thing, just put a '/' before the word 'pre' but inbetween the []. Don't type the quote marks.

Everything will line up exactly how you type it in the box.
   281. DL from MN Posted: October 29, 2010 at 07:24 PM (#3679524)
I believe we extended voting last year. I don't really like verifying new voters over Thanksgiving.

According to the top of this thread the ballot opens 11/8/10.
   282. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: November 03, 2010 at 02:56 AM (#3682854)
That's fine . . . I'm good with starting 11/8, although I can see us extending to 11/29 as has become tradition . . .
   283. sunnyday2 Posted: November 03, 2010 at 04:43 AM (#3682882)
So, what good is the HoM?

1. Well, it has corrected obvious mistakes of the HoF. You know what they are. A-

2. It has taken 19C baseball seriously, and has id the best players of that era on their own terms. B+

3. It has taken the Negro Leagues seriously and has id many of the best players based on data not mythology. A

4. It has given post-expansion players a fair shake, rather than holding them to a higher standard. B+

So, lemme see: A-, B+, A, B+ on tasks where the HoF deserves an F, a D, a C and a D. Not bad.

But, the HoM has unfinished business. Two generations and two generations only of ballplayers faced up to unfair odds of sizable proportions, wherein virtually every player of that generation was held back. They are:

5. WWII generation, where we, the HoM, have earned I guess a C or a D because we really have not advanced the cause of understanding how good some of the players were and how good they would have been and would have been recognized as being but for time lost to the war. These were not random events like injuries and illness and getting stuck in an org that didn't know how to eval talent. These fellows were screwed the day they were born. D.

6. Likewise, the integration generation of black ballplayers, which was held back not by racial segregation but by quotas. And whereas when we're talking about those who were discriminated against by virtue of segregation, everybody knows they didn't get a fair shake. But those from the generation after Jackie Robinson--and I'm talking Newk, Artie Wilson, Bobby Avila, Elston Howard, and many more--we look at their records and we think, well, they had pretty normal careers, right? They got a shot, right? But no, that's the insidious nature of the integration era. It looks like these guys got a fair shake but they did not. D.

Unfinished business, HoM, unfinished business.

And finally, the anomaly of anomalies, another guy who looks like he got a fair shake and did not. Bobby Estalella, whose comps are Gavy Cravath and Ralph Kiner. Unfinished business.
   284. Lassus Posted: November 03, 2010 at 05:07 AM (#3682887)
As an outside observer, I'd say that you are judging the HOM on #5 and #6 too harshly.

Haven't many of you already established a semi-exhaustive war credit system? Beyond that, what are you looking for? Isn't the "what if" a bit too high for further speculation?

As far as #6, the judgment of the negro league players has a base, as they were in a league, and playing. How would you judge unofficial quotas if the players who were qualified weren't actually playing? Winter-league and South American stats? Or am I stupidly missing what you mean, which is more likely.

What are your - even top-of-the-head - ideas for raising #5 and #6 to a B?
   285. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: November 03, 2010 at 01:52 PM (#3682992)
On #5 I agree. I absolutely should have made military service credit mandatory, just like Negro League credit was. It's by far my biggest regret in the project.

Although it's probably only really impacted Rizzuto in terms of who is in or out. Are there any other candidates out the would be in if everyone gave fair military service credit?

On #6, I definitely give Newcombe, Howard and others credit for where their careers most likely would have been without racism. Newcombe just comes up a little short for me, even with that credit.

Same for Gavy Cravath. Estalella is a stretch I think. But it's not like he hasn't been discussed.
   286. sunnyday2 Posted: November 03, 2010 at 03:43 PM (#3683077)
Johnny Pesky for sure. And whereas "many" HoM voters have a war credit system, many and probably more do not. The point is, who is in the HoM because of war time credit? Nobody I can think of.

And as for the guys who were held back by quotas, they were playing in the minor leagues. Here at least there probably are some guys who have been elected to the HoM due to sensitivity to this--well, maybe. Minnie Minoso? Though in his case, there is evidence that his age is not what it seems and so there was never an agreement that he woulda or coulda reasonably made the majors any sooner than he did.

And of course in addition to being held back in Montreal, Newk then spent 2 years mid-career in the military.

And, yes, Estalella was discussed. By me. But there was never a consensus that the 6-8-10 mid-career years he spent in the minors were the result of discrimination. Of course Gavy Cravath isn't in the HoM and so, obviously, there has been substantial deference to the judgments of baseball men back in the day. But where Cravath's ability as a ballplayer was the deciding factor, right or wrong, in Estalella's case it was clearly the color of his skin.
   287. DL from MN Posted: November 03, 2010 at 05:17 PM (#3683168)
Tommy Bridges is another. I've been trying to get him elected since I first started voting. Some voters won't give pitchers war credit at all - look at the rankings for Feller. Urban Shocker is a war credit candidate on my ballot. Pesky is close, Rizzuto will be on my ballot this year.

Hilton Smith, Leon Day, Luke Easter and Bus Clarkson slot into category 6.

> Who is in the HoM because of war time credit?

Possibly Enos Slaughter. Ken Boyer got some consideration due to his service. Gordon and Doerr had an easier time here.
   288. DL from MN Posted: November 03, 2010 at 05:19 PM (#3683171)
closed circuit to Dan R - your data is about to become obsolete in future elections.

These guys would be nice to have WAR data for 2006-09:

Williams, Bernie

Salmon, Tim
Franco, Julio
Finley, Steve

Bonds, Barry
Clemens, Roger
Piazza, Mike
Schilling, Curt
Biggio, Craig
Lofton, Kenny
Wells, David
Green, Shawn

Maddux, Greg
Thomas, Frank
Glavine, Tom
Mussina, Mike
Edmonds, Jim
Kent, Jeff
Rogers, Kenny
Alou, Moises
Gonzalez, Luis
   289. DL from MN Posted: November 03, 2010 at 05:21 PM (#3683172)
Another reminder to all prospective new voters for 2011 - please post a sample ballot in this thread before November 8th.
   290. Esteban Rivera Posted: November 03, 2010 at 09:01 PM (#3683324)
Charlie Keller is likely not in the HOM if not for war credit.

Other candidates that may be worthy with war credit are Dom DiMaggio and Tommy Henrich.
   291. Alex King Posted: November 04, 2010 at 02:40 AM (#3683552)
While I've given war credit and integration-era credit, I don't have any players who got such credit on my ballot (I do have Hilton Smith #10, but he spent the entirety of his career in the Negro Leagues). Rizzuto is the highest-ranked of these players, at 38, followed closely by Clarkson, Estalella, Easter, Newcombe, and Wilson.

My ranking of Rizzuto differs fairly considerably from the consensus ranking. Are voters generally giving Rizzuto MLE credit for 1940? I also saw that Dan R gives Rizzuto extra credit in 1946 for contracting malaria during WW2. Do others give Rizzuto such credit? Right now, I haven't given Rizzuto either form of credit, but I'm willing to be convinced otherwise.
   292. Chris Fluit Posted: November 04, 2010 at 03:41 AM (#3683578)
I don't give Rizzuto minor league credit for 1940. I didn't give Charlie Keller minor league credit for 1938 either. Some voters hold the view that players in the Yankees system were held back unfairly because of the talent at the major league level. However, I find it hard to argue that a player who made his major league debut at 23 instead of 22 was unfairly penalized. If Keller or Rizzuto need that extra year of credit, then there's probably a better candidate for the HoM.

I also don't give Rizzuto extra credit for 1946. It's true that his decreased performance that season was partially due to an illness he contracted during the service. However, other players got ill/were injured while playing in North America and they don't get extra credit. I chalk it up to illness which isn't supposed to be credited and not military service which should be. I would ignore his 1946 season for the basis of establishing his base level for military credit but it doesn't help him much as his '48 wasn't much better.
   293. sunnyday2 Posted: November 04, 2010 at 04:43 AM (#3683592)
True about Keller though he only missed 1.5 yrs to the war vs. up to 4 for others.

I also agree, Rizzuto no x-credit for 1940. You'd have to look at everybody to see if they maybe were held back in order to justify giving it to Rizzuto, in other words, not fair unless systematically evaluated. But I'm more of a peak voter and a pretty big SS glove voter, so Rizzuto makes my ballot and PHoM easily. Ditto Pesky.
   294. DL from MN Posted: November 04, 2010 at 01:53 PM (#3683674)
I don't necessarily give Rizzuto credit for a different 1946 but I throw it out when calculating what level of credit to give him for his missing years. I use his numbers from 1941-42 and 1947 to establish his level of play from 43-45 instead. Rizzuto will make my ballot this year for the first time.
   295. Chris Fluit Posted: November 04, 2010 at 03:17 PM (#3683739)
True about Keller though he only missed 1.5 yrs to the war vs. up to 4 for others.


I do give Keller that 1.5 seasons worth of military credit. I just don't give him another year on top of that of minor league credit.
   296. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: November 04, 2010 at 03:19 PM (#3683742)
Are voters generally giving Rizzuto MLE credit for 1940? I also saw that Dan R gives Rizzuto extra credit in 1946 for contracting malaria during WW2. Do others give Rizzuto such credit? Right now, I haven't given Rizzuto either form of credit, but I'm willing to be convinced otherwise.


I don't give credit for 1940.

I absolutely give him extra credit for 1946 due to the Malaria.

I basically give him credit for 1943-46 at his 1941-42-47 level of play (and similar playing time). I think this is entirely reasonable, considering he missed his prime years. It's probably a little too conservative, to be honest.
   297. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: November 04, 2010 at 03:21 PM (#3683744)
If Keller or Rizzuto need that extra year of credit, then there's probably a better candidate for the HoM.


I don't buy this argument at all. On the fringes, one extra can make a huge difference. In a 15 year career, 1 extra year is 6.7% of a career. On the edges that is definitely enough to separate guys.

Note this is just to the 'if they need another year' argument in general - I'm not saying that Keller or Rizzuto should get minor league credit.
   298. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: November 06, 2010 at 01:50 PM (#3684901)
Wow, time flies. DL from MN, I should be able to compile numbers on all those guys by the end of the voting period.
   299. Alex King Posted: November 08, 2010 at 05:21 AM (#3685683)
Sample ballot.

aWAR refers to Baseball-reference WAR adjusted for season length and WW2, or WAR estimates that I’ve created for Negro Leagues players. To determine my ballot, I look at each player's top aWAR, career aWAR, top 3 seasons, top 5 seasons, top 5 consecutive seaons, seasons above 2 aWAR and seasons above 5 aWAR. Then I converted each category into a z-score based on my consideration set's average and standard deviation, then weighted and added the z-scores together.

1. Jeff Bagwell. A clear first in my rankings, Bagwell is at the top of the ballot in both peak and career aWAR.
2. Larry Walker. Walker combines a solid peak and excellent career (#2 in career aWAR on the ballot) to inch ahead of the next 3 guys. According to Sean Smith, +140 for his career in baserunning, fielding, avoiding the double play, and reaching on error.
3. Buddy Bell. Bell’s career aWAR numbers are very similar to Walker’s, except that Walker has a 5 aWAR career advantage. Bell was an outstanding defensive 3B (+176 runs for his career) at a time when 3B was a historically difficult position, played by the likes of Brooks Robinson, Graig Nettles, Aurelio Rodriguez, and Doug Rader. By aWAR, Bell’s best season came in strike-shortened 1981, when he was worth 6.2 WAR, which extrapolates to 9.8 aWAR over a full season.
4. Kevin Brown. Top pitcher on the ballot; very similar aWAR numbers to Bell. Brown falls just short of Bell mainly because his peak season (8.7 aWAR) is somewhat lower than Bell’s (9.8 aWAR).
5. Rick Reuschel. Reuschel’s aWAR numbers are actually quite similar to Brown’s, though Reuschel contributed a little less in his top 3 and top 5 seasons. Reuschel’s ERA and ERA+ are depressed by horrific defensive support, which Sean Smith estimates at -66 runs for his career.
6. Ned Williamson. A very high peak player with a lot of value concentrated in defense. In addition to Sean Smith’s estimate that he was worth +87 runs in about 5000 PA, Williamson had an outstanding defensive reputation, and led the league in traditional fielding stats many times. Given that Williamson’s defense garnered praise from his contemporaries, I am quite comfortable with bbWAR’s favorable assessment of his defense.
7. Sal Bando. Another 70’s 3B with a lot of value from the position adjustment. Bando wasn’t as good a fielder as Bell, but was a better hitter. Bando also accumulates a lot of value between baserunning (+11 runs), reached on error (+17 runs) and hitting into double plays (+5 runs). Bando also had a fantastic peak, with 8 seasons of 5 or more aWAR. The only player on the ballot to have more seasons above 5 aWAR is Bagwell.
8. Rafael Palmeiro. Lots of career value but very little peak. Despite the third-highest career value of anyone in my consideration set, Palmeiro is only about average in terms of peak; he has the lowest peak value of anyone on my ballot, except for Luis Tiant.
9. Dick Redding. I estimated Redding’s aWAR from the WS MLEs posted in his thread. This translation sees Redding as a peak-heavy player with 58 career aWAR and top seasons of 10.5 (1915), 8.8 (1916), and 6.4 (1911).
10. Hilton Smith. See Hilton Smith thread for details on my estimation of Smith’s aWAR (essentially I imitated Dr. Chaleeko’s methods as closely as I could, using the HOF data). Smith profiles as a peak-heavy pitcher with about 60 career aWAR. Smith also derives a significant amount of his value from his bat. Smith has a very interesting career arc, pitching from age 28 to age 41 and peaking in his early 30s. Smith’s career shape somewhat resembles Dazzy Vance’s.
11. David Cone. The Cone/Brown comparison is apt; Cone compares favorably to Brown, but with less career value and fewer seasons with greater than 5 aWAR or greater than 2 aWAR. Cone also lost a significant chunk of (apparent) value to the strike, as his two top seasons by aWAR came in 1994 and 1995.
12. Hugh Duffy. Duffy, Van Haltren, and Ryan all profile as similar hitters (between +300 and +350 runs above average) but, according to Sean Smith, Duffy was by far the best of the three in fielding and baserunning, picking up over 100 runs on the other two. As a result, Duffy makes my ballot, and the other two do not.
13. John Olerud. It looks like few others share my high opinion of Olerud. Total Zone rates Olerud’s defense quite highly (+97 runs) though he gives half of it back on baserunning, reached on error, and grounded into double plays. Given Olerud’s excellent defensive reputation, I am comfortable with TZ’s assessment of his defense, and by extension, his placement on my ballot.
14. Eddie Cicotte. Most peak-heavy player on my ballot (not the best peak, but the best peak in comparison to his career). Cicotte benefits quite significantly from short-season credit for 1918 and 1919. He ends up with two seasons of greater than 9 aWAR, and is near the top of my ballot in many peak-based measures. I don’t give Cicotte post-1920 credit, nor do I debit him for participation in the Black Sox scandal.
15. Luis Tiant. Comparable to the Cone/Smith/Redding group in terms of career value, but far below them in terms of peak. Tiant also gets a nice boost from having 6 seasons greater than 5 aWAR, and 14 seasons greater than 2 aWAR.

16. Gavvy Cravath. I’ve warmed significantly to his case. I give Cravath partial MLE credit for 1905 and 1906, and full credit for 1907 and 1909-1911. I based the beginning of Cravath’s career on the Red Sox’ outfield situation at the time, assuming that, had Cravath been playing in a farm system rather than the independent minor leagues, he would have debuted when the parent club needed him. I chose the Red Sox because he made his actual debut with them in 1908. This model of Cravath’s debut has him break into the majors at age 24 (100 PA), play fairly regularly at age 25 (400 PA), and play full-time at age 26. This MLE produces career and peak statistics quite similar to Tiant's, though Cravath has significantly fewer seasons of greater than 5 WAR or greater than 2 WAR.
17. Frank Chance
18. George Scales. aWAR estimates from his MLEs show Scales in a pretty favorable light, even though I debit him significantly for poor fielding and baserunning. Scales gets a lot of credit for being a pretty good hitter who was able to play 2B/3B (though not very well) for most of his career.
19. Silver King
20. Frank Tanana
21. Chet Brewer. I’ve created some MLEs for Brewer based on his HOF numbers; they show a career arc quite comparable to Frank Tanana’s. I’ll post more details on his thread; essentially, I tried to imitate Dr. Chaleeko's methods.
22. Kevin Appier
23. Tommy Bond
24. Cesar Cedeno
25. Orel Hershiser

38. Phil Rizzuto. Rizzuto doesn’t miss by a whole lot; the difference between Rizzuto and Tiant (#15) is less than the difference between Tiant and Cone (#11). I give Rizzuto war credit for 1943-1945 based on his 1941-1942 and 1947 play, but I don’t give him extra credit for 1946 or MLE credit for 1940. In the end, Rizzuto profiles as Cravath light: about the same career value, but slightly less peak value than Cravath.
57. Tommy Leach. aWAR is unimpressed by Leach’s peak, and his career value, at 55 aWAR, isn’t enough to get him close to my ballot.
64. Fred McGriff. Another player who isn’t particularly close to the ballot in peak or career aWAR. McGriff could hit, but cost his teams an estimated 77 runs over his career between fielding, baserunning, reaching on error, and grounding into double plays.
93. Bucky Walters. Walters has an outstanding peak, comparable to those of the top candidates on my ballot. But Walters’ career value falls far short of my standards; in fact, if elected, he would have the lowest career aWAR of any starting pitcher by a substantial margin. Since I consider both peak and career value, Walters falls well short of my ballot.
   300. Juan V Posted: November 08, 2010 at 01:41 PM (#3685751)
Prelim:

1.Bagwell
2.Walker
3.Brown
4.Fred Dunlap
5.Reuschel
6.Palmeiro
7.Babe Adams
8.Vic Willis
9.Cone
10.Gooden
11.Concepcion
12.Appier
13.Belle
14.Rizzuto
15.Tiant
Page 3 of 4 pages  < 1 2 3 4 > 

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