Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Hall of Merit > Discussion
Hall of Merit
— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best

Tuesday, December 28, 2010

2011 BBTF Hall of Fame Ballot

IMPORTANT: Please read:

This election should follow BBWAA rules, not Hall of Merit rules. However, we hope to see only players that each voter feels belong on their ballots - if you don’t feel he really is a HOFer, then please refrain from posting that player’s name (examples of whom I am referring to are Mookie Wilson, Scott Broscius, Buddy Biancalana - players who were well liked or were underdogs, but have no creditable HOF resume). Leaving 1st-year candidates off your ballot is also frowned upon. IOW, we would like to see an absence of some of the silliness that permeates Hall of Fame voting by the writers.

The election will end next Tuesday on Jan 4 (8 PM EST). Results will be posted at the same time.

Please don’t post any vote tallies on this thread.

Here are some of the rules by the BBWAA that pertain to our electorate:

3. Eligible Candidates — Candidates to be eligible must meet the following requirements:

A. A baseball player must have been active as a player in the Major Leagues at some time during a period beginning twenty (20) years before and ending five (5) years prior to election.
B. Player must have played in each of ten (10) Major League championship seasons, some part of which must have been within the period described in 3 (A).
C. Player shall have ceased to be an active player in the Major Leagues at least five (5) calendar years preceding the election but may be otherwise connected with baseball.
D. In case of the death of an active player or a player who has been retired for less than five (5) full years, a candidate who is otherwise eligible shall be eligible in the next regular election held at least six (6) months after the date of death or after the end of the five (5) year period, whichever occurs first.
E. Any player on Baseball’s ineligible list shall not be an eligible candidate.

4. Method of Election

A. BBWAA Screening Committee — A Screening Committee consisting of baseball writers will be appointed by the BBWAA. This Screening Committee shall consist of six members, with two members to be elected at each Annual Meeting for a three-year term. The duty of the Screening Committee shall be to prepare a ballot listing in alphabetical order eligible candidates who (1) received a vote on a minimum of five percent (5%) of the ballots cast in the preceding election or (2) are eligible for the first time and are nominated by any two of the six members of the BBWAA Screening Committee.
B. Electors may vote for as few as zero (0) and as many as ten (10) eligible candidates deemed worthy of election. Write-in votes are not permitted.+
C. Any candidate receiving votes on seventy-five percent (75%) of the ballots cast shall be elected to membership in the National Baseball Hall of Fame.

5. Voting — Voting shall be based upon the player’s record, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character, and contributions to the team(s) on which the player played.

The eligible candidates are: Roberto Alomar, Carlos Baerga*, Jeff Bagwell*, Harold Baines, Bert Blyleven, Bret Boone*, Kevin Brown*, John Franco*, Juan Gonzalez*, Marquis Grissom*, Lenny Harris*, Bobby Higginson*, Charles Johnson*, Barry Larkin, Al Leiter*, Edgar Martinez, Tino Martinez*, Don Mattingly, Mark McGwire, Fred McGriff, Raul Mondesi*, Jack Morris, Dale Murphy, John Olerud*, Rafael Palmeiro*, Dave Parker**, Tim Raines, Kirk Reuter*, Benito Santiago*, Lee Smith, B.J. Surhoff*, Alan Trammell and Larry Walker*.

* 1st-year candidates

** Last year of eligibility

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: December 28, 2010 at 03:47 PM | 180 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Related News:

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

Page 1 of 2 pages  1 2 > 
   1. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: December 28, 2010 at 04:21 PM (#3718829)
In alphabetical order:

Roberto Alomar
Jeff Bagwell
Bert Blyleven
Kevin Brown
Barry Larkin
Mark McGwire
Tim Raines
Lee Smith
Alan Trammell
Larry Walker

First time I filled up my ballot. Had to leave off Palmeiro this time.
   2. Eddo Posted: December 28, 2010 at 04:34 PM (#3718830)
I don't vote for the HOM, so I'm not sure this is kosher, but here's my vote:

Roberto Alomar
Jeff Bagwell
Bert Blyleven
Barry Larkin
Edgar Martinez
Mark McGwire
Rafael Palmeiro
Tim Raines
Alan Trammell
Larry Walker

Close between Palmeiro, Martinez, and Brown for the last two spots.
   3. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: December 28, 2010 at 04:39 PM (#3718834)
In alphabetical order:

Roberto Alomar,
Jeff Bagwell,
Bert Blyleven,
Kevin Brown,
Barry Larkin,
Edgar Martinez,
Mark McGwire,
Tim Raines,
Alan Trammell
Larry Walker.
   4. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: December 28, 2010 at 04:42 PM (#3718835)
In alphabetical order:

Roberto Alomar
Jeff Bagwell
Bert Blyleven
Kevin Brown
Barry Larkin
Edgar Martinez
Tim Raines
Larry Walker
   5. Mike Emeigh Posted: December 28, 2010 at 04:54 PM (#3718842)
Roberto Alomar
Jeff Bagwell
Barry Larkin
Lee Smith

-- MWE
   6. SoSH U at work Posted: December 28, 2010 at 05:06 PM (#3718849)
Alomar
Blyleven
Larkin
Raines
Trammell
Bagwell
McGwire
Edgar
Walker
McGriff

I'm not really sure on the last two spots. I considered Walker, Brown and Palmeiro, but I have questions about them all, so I threw the Dog a bone. I was also afraid that if I didn't fill my ballot, DanG might rough me up. (-:
   7. HGM Posted: December 28, 2010 at 05:13 PM (#3718854)
Roberto Alomar
Jeff Bagwell
Bert Blyleven
Kevin Brown
Barry Larkin
Edgar Martinez
Mark McGwire
Tim Raines
Alan Trammell
Larry Walker
   8. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: December 28, 2010 at 05:23 PM (#3718859)
Alomar
Bagwell
Blyleven
Brown
Larkin
McGwire
Palmeiro
Raines
Trammell
Walker
   9. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: December 28, 2010 at 05:24 PM (#3718860)
Yuck - had my favorite player growing up drop off my ballot this year (sorry, Dale):

Roberto Alomar
Jeff Bagwell
Bert Blyleven
Kevin Brown
Barry Larkin
Edgar Martinez
Mark McGwire
Tim Raines
Alan Trammell
Larry Walker
   10. user Posted: December 28, 2010 at 05:26 PM (#3718864)
Roberto Alomar,
Jeff Bagwell,
Bert Blyleven,
Kevin Brown,
Barry Larkin,
Edgar Martinez,
Mark McGwire,
Tim Raines,
Alan Trammell
Larry Walker.
   11. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: December 28, 2010 at 05:29 PM (#3718867)
Roberto Alomar
Jeff Bagwell
Bert Blyleven
Kevin Brown
Barry Larkin
Tim Raines
Alan Trammell
Larry Walker
   12. Lassus Posted: December 28, 2010 at 05:29 PM (#3718868)
Alomar
Blyleven
Bagwell
E. Martinez
McGwire
Raines
Trammell
   13. LargeBill Posted: December 28, 2010 at 05:31 PM (#3718870)
Roberto Alomar
Jeff Bagwell*
Bert Blyleven
Kevin Brown*
Barry Larkin
Mark McGwire
Fred McGriff
Rafael Palmiero*
Tim Raines
Alan Trammell

Last few eliminations were difficult. It will be interesting to see how far off out tallies are from the actual results. Some will be far different. Most obvious case is Morris. Also, doubt our crowd will be as sanctimonious regarding PED suspicions.
   14. Coot Veal and Cot Deal's cols=“100” rows=“20” Posted: December 28, 2010 at 05:32 PM (#3718872)
Roberto Alomar
Jeff Bagwell
Bert Blyleven
Barry Larkin
Edgar Martinez
Mark McGwire
Rafael Palmiero
Tim Raines
Alan Trammell
Larry Walker
   15. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: December 28, 2010 at 05:39 PM (#3718875)
Jeff Bagwell
Roberto Alomar
Barry Larkin
Bert Blyleven
Tim Raines
Mark McGwire
Larry Walker

My reasons for voting for these guys and not for other guys can be seen here. (I set that up so anyone can leave comments; feel free to do so.)
   16. Mark Donelson Posted: December 28, 2010 at 05:39 PM (#3718876)
Alomar
Bagwell
Blyleven
K. Brown
Larkin
E. Martinez
McGwire
Raines
Trammell
Walker
   17. icho1977 Posted: December 28, 2010 at 05:49 PM (#3718881)
Alomar
Blyleven
Smith
McGwire
Baines
Morris
Larkin
Raines
McGriff
Rafael Palmeiro.

My reasons for voting for these guys
http://baseballhalloffamestatistics.blogspot.com/
   18. Jarrod HypnerotomachiaPoliphili(Teddy F. Ballgame) Posted: December 28, 2010 at 05:53 PM (#3718884)
Alomar
Bagwell
Blyleven
Brown
Larkin
Edgar Martinez
McGwire
Palmeiro
Raines
Trammell
   19. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: December 28, 2010 at 05:56 PM (#3718888)
This ballot is crammed enough that the 10-man limit is a bit of a strain... and it's nothing compared to what we'll see in 2013.

Alomar
Bagwell
Blyleven
Brown
Larkin
E. Martinez
McGwire
Raines
Trammell
Walker
   20. Howie Menckel Posted: December 28, 2010 at 06:14 PM (#3718898)
Roberto Alomar
Jeff Bagwell*
Bert Blyleven
Kevin Brown*
Barry Larkin
Mark McGwire
Rafael Palmiero*
Tim Raines
Alan Trammell
Larry Walker*

willing to vote for Edgar and McGriff, but no room at the inn
   21. Dag Nabbit is part of the zombie horde Posted: December 28, 2010 at 06:25 PM (#3718903)
Roberto Alomar
Jeff Bagwell
Bert Blyleven
Barry Larkin
Edgar Martinez
Mark McGwire
Dale Murphy
Rafael Palmiero
Tim Raines
Alan Trammell
   22. trtaylor6886 Posted: December 28, 2010 at 06:44 PM (#3718918)
Alomar
Bagwell
Blyleven
Larkin
E. Martinez
McGriff
McGwire
Raines
Trammell
Walker
   23. DCW3 Posted: December 28, 2010 at 06:48 PM (#3718921)
Roberto Alomar
Jeff Bagwell
Bert Blyleven
Kevin Brown
Barry Larkin
Edgar Martinez
Mark McGwire
Tim Raines
Alan Trammell
Larry Walker
   24. Srul Itza Posted: December 28, 2010 at 06:53 PM (#3718924)
1. Roberto Alomar
2. Jeff Bagwell
3. Bert Blyleven
4. Barry Larkin
5. Edgar Martinez
6. Mark McGwire
7. Rafael Palmiero
8. Tim Raines
9. Alan Trammell
10. Larry Walker.
   25. The District Attorney Posted: December 28, 2010 at 06:55 PM (#3718929)
Roberto Alomar
Jeff Bagwell
Bert Blyleven
Kevin Brown
Barry Larkin
Mark McGwire
Tim Raines
Lee Smith
Alan Trammell
Larry Walker
   26. Delorians Posted: December 28, 2010 at 07:15 PM (#3718946)
Alomar
Bagwell
Blyleven
Larkin
McGwire
McGriff*
Murphy*
Raines
Smith*
Trammell

It was a close decision to leave off Martinez, Palmeiro, and Walker for the three starred. I would've voted for 13 if allowed.
   27. Brian Posted: December 28, 2010 at 07:15 PM (#3718947)
Roberto Alomar
Jeff Bagwell
Bert Blyleven
Barry Larkin
Edgar Martinez
Mark McGwire
Tim Raines
Alan Trammell
Larry Walker

Just not there on Brown.
   28. JoeC Posted: December 28, 2010 at 07:20 PM (#3718952)
Roberto Alomar
Jeff Bagwell
Bert Blyleven
Kevin Brown
Barry Larkin
Edgar Martinez
Mark McGwire
Tim Raines
Alan Trammell
Larry Walker
   29. Alex King Posted: December 28, 2010 at 07:48 PM (#3718971)
Roberto Alomar
Jeff Bagwell
Bert Blyleven
Kevin Brown
Barry Larkin
Edgar Martinez
Mark McGwire
Tim Raines
Alan Trammell
Larry Walker
   30. Juilin Sandar to Conkling Speedwell (Arjun) Posted: December 28, 2010 at 07:52 PM (#3718973)
Roberto Alomar
Jeff Bagwell
Bert Blyleven
Kevin Brown
Barry Larkin
Mark McGwire
Tim Raines
Alan Trammell
Larry Walker
   31. AROM Posted: December 28, 2010 at 07:54 PM (#3718974)
Roberto Alomar
Jeff Bagwell
Bert Blyleven
Kevin Brown
Barry Larkin
Edgar Martinez
Mark McGwire
Tim Raines
Alan Trammell
Larry Walker
   32. cardsfanboy Posted: December 28, 2010 at 08:13 PM (#3718990)
Alomar
Bagwell
Bleyleven
Larkin
Martinez
McGwire
Palmeiro
Raines
Trammell
Walker

Tough to choose between Brown and Edgar, Edgar wins because of character.
   33. Kiko Sakata Posted: December 28, 2010 at 08:16 PM (#3718993)
In the approximate order I'd place them:

Barry Larkin
Jeff Bagwell
Bert Blyleven
Roberto Alomar
Alan Trammell
Tim Raines
Mark McGwire
Larry Walker
Kevin Brown
Edgar Martinez

You could plausibly draw a line after #6 (based mainly on steroids), #7, #11 (Rafael Palmeiro), or #13 (add Dale Murphy, Fred McGriff in that order). And with no ballot limit, I'd listen to arguments on #14 (Dave Parker).

Drawing a line after exactly 10, on the other hand, feels very forced to me. The difference between Palmeiro and Edgar (and Walker and Brown) is paper-thin; I'm using Palmeiro's failed steroid test as something of a tiebreaker here (I'd probaby take Raffy over Edgar on pure value).
   34. Bourbon Samurai in Asia Posted: December 28, 2010 at 08:18 PM (#3718995)
Roberto Alomar
Jeff Bagwell
Bert Blyleven
Barry Larkin
Fred McGriff
Mark McGwire
Jack Morris (just so there's one)
Tim Raines
Allan Trammell
   35. Bleed the Freak Posted: December 28, 2010 at 08:28 PM (#3719001)
54 Bagwell, Jeff - potentially overlooked all-time great player, who was subjected to an extreme pitchers park in his prime, and was very good/excellent in the baserunning and fielding departments for a first baseman. 3 MVP type seasons tied for the most of any eligible player (Bill Bradley 1902-04 and Johnny Pesky). 1994 a truly historic campaign, along with excellent 96 MVP level season, 97, and 99 (arguably the best NL player) seasons. Most all-star type seasons (11- 92-02) and 14 filler seasons (tied with Bob Johnson and Rafael Palmeiro for most eligible). Not accused of any PED’s to my knowledge although was quite ripped in the biceps. He sported my favorite batting stance of all-time and had a legendary goatee in his later career. 152 Runs scored most since Lou Gehrig’s 167 in 1936.
58 Trammell, Alan - similar to, but exceeds Ozzie Smith in career value. A dead ringer for Robin Yount's career value. Hall of Fame's worst injustice to date.
64 Blyleven, Bert - for more on this case, check out Rich Lederer's Baseball Analysts site - Bert Blyleven series. Top quartile value.
70 Larkin, Barry - A truly great shortstop overshadowed by Cal Ripken Jr and playing in the small market of Cincinnati. Outstanding seasons in 1988, 1990-92, and 1996, all star quality in 94, 95, 98, 99. Nice filler seasons in 89 and 93. Underrated as well, due to fine defensive and baserunning play.
90 Raines, Tim - excellent peak from 1983-1987, with solid career shoulder seasons. Stronger case than Tony Gwynn for enshrinement.
117 Brown, Kevin - 4 Cy Young type seasons tied (Tommy Bond, Jim McCormick, and Vic Willis) for the most of any player on the ballot (1996-98, and 00). He pulls away from the pack with prime seasons in 92, 95, 99, and 03. Has a few filler seasons too. Hopefully others will overlook his late career meltdowns with the Yankees. Once was the first baseball player to sign a $100 million dollar contract, doing so while on the Dodgers for 7 years and $105 million, thanks to GM Kevin Malone. He has also been linked to HGH use in the Mitchell Report.
119 McGwire, Mark - peak in late 90s puts him over the top - little value outside of HR's. I wonder how much the Andro/etc. helped?
131 Whitaker, Lou - a joke that he fell below the 5% threshhold, as he has similar value to Sandberg. I realize he is not a peak voters cup of tea, but the man had an amazing prime and career.
http://www.fangraphs.com/community/index.php/a-guaranteed-hof-snub/
132 Walker, Larry - 10 all-star type seasons, including 4 near MVP level years (1992, 94, 97, and 01), along with 91, 93, 98, 99, and 02. Like Bagwell, not a tremendous power hitter, although 1997 was sublime – has excellent marks in baserunning and defensive value. During the 1997 season, Tony Gwynn and Walker were chasing after a 400 AVG and where interviewed by ESPN. Gwynn mentioned that he studied hours of tape to help hone his craft, while Walker took more of a “grip it and rip it” approach. While playing right field for the Expos, caught the second out of an inning and threw the ball to a spectator. I wish I could have witnessed the 1994 Expos in September/October – what a travesty.
147 Reuschel, Rick - dropped below 5% threshhold - 15th year of eligibility. A reason to love sabermetrics. Not recognized as great during his playing career, but worthy of inclusion after improved analysis.


Above the personal hall of merit in/out line, but not Top 10:
154 Evans, Dwight - dropped below 5% threshhold - 15th year of eligibility. Sad that Rice is enshrined (HR/RBI/AVG), while Evans was quickly passed over (OBP/Baserunning/Defense), and Rice's GDP were overlooked:
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2010/11/22/1827213/double-plays-erased-16-5-of-jim-rices-offensive-value
165 Saberhagen, Bret - dropped below 5% threshhold - Hall of Fame is looking over hurlers of recent vintage.
175 Alomar, Roberto - Sublime seasons in 91-93, 96, 99, and 01. All star type seasons almost every year from 88-01. Fell off a cliff in 02 at 34. Any chance he was older than he claimed? He had quite an impressive campaign as a 20 year old. Will be interesting to see what cap he wears into the HOM? Dan R shows him as most valuable for the Cleveland Indians, but the Toronto Blue Jays would be a fine choice as well.
184 Cone, David - 3 Cy Young Type Seasons (Outstanding in 1994, and a bit lower in 93 and 97). 5 additional all-star type seasons (90, 91, 95, 98, 99) and a few filler campaigns. Rates behind only the low-peak Jack Quinn in Joe Dimino’s Pennants Added statistic for returning hurlers to the ballot. Outstanding post-season performer on Five! World championship squads. Cone, like Walker, is infamous for a terrible blunder. While pitching in his younger days with the Mets, he argued with an umpire about a call near first base, while at the same time, an opposing player came around to score a run. He tied the NL record for single game strikeouts with 19 on October 6, 1991.
185 Palmeiro, Rafael - 9 all-star quality years (with an excellent 1993, and easily deserving 91, 95, 98, and 01, along with 92, 94, 96, and 02). 14 filler seasons tied for most on the ballot. Cubs ownership decided to give up on this OF/1B in favor of Mark Grace (solid Hall of Very Good, but no HOM). His ranking his based solely on the merit he was able to provide to his clubs during his playing career, with no deductions for potential performance enhancing drug use. He put up some fine seasons early in his career before the later career bulking up period. Will he be remembered more for his PED usage denial in front of congress or for the 500 HR and 3000 Hit counting stats?
202 Clark, Will - fell below 5% threshhold. Peak in late 80s early 90s before steroid boom hidden by Candlestick park.
205 Martinez, Edgar - with MiL credit for 88 would could move ahead of W Clark, but Calgary was a hitter's paradise (Ala Albuquerque - As a young boy, I could never figure why Billy Ashley wouldn't become a star...a hitter's paradise), and I am not sold on Edgar getting extra credit. Outstanding in 1992, with all-star quality seasons almost every year (91, 92, 96-98, 00-01). It was fun to watch him hit!
236 Stieb, Dave - fell below 5% threshhold. He's the hurler of the 80s the Hall of Fame should elect. Better peak and career than Jack Morris.
239 Hershiser, Orel - fell below 5% thresshold. Tough one to peg, enough peak in 80s, and career in 90s to place just above the line for me.
   36. Bleed the Freak Posted: December 28, 2010 at 08:29 PM (#3719002)
Above the personal hall of merit in/out line, but not eligible for induction:
60 Dahlen, Bill - the granddaddy of oversights for the pre 1980s. Excellent all-around 1890s/1900s shortstop.
73 Johnson, Grant - Hall of Fame whiffed on this one, although the limited documentation could bring his value down a few rungs - Clear Hall of Meriter though. Star of the early Negro Leagues.
80 Grich, Bobby - sabermetric dream - low BA, high OBP, fine SLG, excellent defender/base runner. I bought his 1971 Topps rookie card (beautifully chipped black borders) for peanuts because the guy had no clue who he was. I think the BBWAA has nearly the same view. Hat tip to Bill James for endorsing his career years ago.
85 Jackson, Joe - I wonder how high he could have ended up if not blacklisted. Should be remember for Cleveland Indian greatness more so than Chicago White Sox. Ineligible for HOF.
105 White, Deacon - standout of 1870s - may be overlooked due to National Association dominance. Played nearly all positions - excellent peak.
106 Rose, Pete - hit king was one hell of a ballplayer - fine peak, amazing career value.
110 Santo, Ron - RIP Ron. Arguably best player in baseball in last half of 60s. Excellent ballplayer, even better to meet in person. He spoke like a die-hard fan in the broadcasting booth.
111 Glasscock, Jack - 1870/80s star a notch above Lou Boudreau/below Pee Wee Reese.
112 Hines, Paul - all-around star CF of 1870s. Roughly equal to Duke Snider.
125 Barnes, Ross - mega star of 1870s - NA and early NL. Oversight due to pre-NL value.
126 Allen, Dick - too bad he had to star in the 60s, attitude more fitting for 90s star. Amazing slugger peak and butcher in the field.
134 Simmons, Ted - 70s/80s catcher a notch below Buck Ewing, superior to Charlie Bennett. Sadly overlooked - plenty of value in BBs and not historically awful defense as once thought in long career.
157 Keller, Charlie - easy pick if given war-credit. Hulking slugger of 40s.
162 Bennett, Charlie - catching star of the 19th century (1880s)- solidly between Ted Simmons and Bill Freehan.
166 Lundy, Dick - great find by Hall of Merit electorate - enough defensive/offensive value as Negro Leagues shortstop to qualify.
167 Sutton, Ezra - tough one to accurately place, as 1860s/70s value could put him a few notches above or just below Molitor/B Robinson.
171 Gore, George - short, but sufficient peak in 1880s to place between Billy Williams and Willie Stargell.
172 Pearce, Dickey - should be recognized by Hall of Fame as a pioneer at minimum. Case is largely speculative, but adequate player in his 40s (1870s) shows him as a potential Ozzie Smith lite career.
173 Groh, Heinie - star of 10s with similar value to Paul Molitor and Brooks Robinson.
176 Ferrell, Wes - arguably non-Ruth best hitting pitcher of 20th century - short career, fine peak in hitters era (30s).
178 Minoso, Minnie - just a bit better than Willie Stargell. Negro League play easily puts him over the top, along with ML.
181 Start, Joe - could move up or down a few spots - depending on the value of 1860s peak. Extraordinarily long career. Understandable why HOF has ignored his case.
183 Magee, Sherry - standout of weak 10s NL. Similar to Pop Stargell in value.
191 Wynn, Jimmy - toy cannon compares favorably to Andre Dawson, and roughly to Willie Stargell.
193 Pesky, Johnny - At least two MVP quality seasons (1942 and 46). Regarding the War Credit, he played at an all-star level in 41 and 47, along with those 42 and 46 MVP campaigns. I am inclined to award him at least 1 MVP type season and two all-star level performances during the war – which would give him 3 MVP quality years and 8 all-star type seasons (51). Adds filler seasons in 48 and 50. His peak is second only to Jeff Bagwell on the ballot. I t would be great to elect this 91 year old legend before he passes. Fenway Park’s right field foul pole is named after him. Pesky was involved in a famous 1946 World Series play, where Enos Slaughter scored from first base on a single. Johnny Pesky’s relay throw from the outfield was short, helping the Cardinals take the Series over the Red Sox.
194 Shocker, Urban - Cy Young level performances in 1921 and 22, with consideration for 18 after WWI war credit. All-star level performance for a 9 year span (18-26), with a filler season in 27. His PA numbers are fairly impressive when you consider the balance between peak and prime value. One of a handful of pitches who were successful against the early 1920s Yankees juggernaut. He contracted pneumonia and died from a weakened heart in 28, a year he began with the New York Yankees. Shocker was a spitballer who once fired 54 consecutive scoreless innings.
197 Sheckard, Jimmy - similar to Willie Stargell in value, although much different shape - Defense and baserunning excellent, with Pops was a slugger.
198 Caruthers, Bob - best hitting pitcher of 19th century (1880s) - a Karlmagnus favorite - and for good reason.
199 Campaneris, Bert - a great discovery by Dan Rosenheck. Highly skilled in defensive and baserunning areas. MVP type season in 1968 and arguably best AL player in 70. He tacks on an additional six years of all-star level seasons (including quite worthy 72-74 years with 66, 76, and 77 as well), and five filler campaigns. Tremendous hidden value in comparison with awful shortstops of the late 60s and 70s (Think Jackie and Enzo Hernandez or Rick Auerbach). He was the first player to appear at all 9 positions in one game for the Kansas City Athletics in 1965. Only weighed 160 pounds and stood 5’10”. Impressive 649 career SB.
200 Newcombe, Don - Cy Young quality campaigns in 1949 and 59. Pitched at an all-star level each season from 50-57, excluding the war shortened 54. Deserving of at-least two additional all-star war credit campaigns in 52 and 53 due to service in Korea. Deserving of MLE credit in 46-48 with one all-star year and a filler campaign, giving him 10 all-star type seasons (tied with Rick Reuschel). Outstanding hitter for a hurler aids his placement into my PHOM. Newcombe would help fill a gap of negro league hurlers and a decade that is light on electees.
201 Beckwith, John - Dick Allen lite from Negro Leagues.
204 Smith, Reggie - sabermetric studies show OBP/defense make him worthy of inclusion.
207 Oms, Alejandro - worthy is you include Cuban league credit in 30s. Similar to Andre Dawson in overall context.
208 Freehan, Bill - 60s backstop slots just ahead of Roger Bresnahan - defense and offensive value are good.
211 Hack, Stan - 30s/40s stud took advantage of war-time deployments. Value a dead ringer of Graig Nettles
213 Williamson, Ed - Not necessarily well regarded by Win Shares and I am unaware of any estimations by Dan Rosenheck’s WARP, Sean Smith’s WAR is floored with Ned Williamson’s contributions. He is seen as a fabulous defensive shortstop/third baseman by the metric, which was corroborated on the Chone WAR credit thread by Paul Wendt’s excellent research skills. Ned was no slouch with the stick either, although he took unique advantage of a quirk in 1884, when ground rule doubles at the Chicago White Stockings homefield were ruled homeruns, allowing him to set a record with 27 clouts, which stood until Babe Ruth’s 29 in 1919. Williamson’s extrapolated WAR an MVP type season in 1882, along with seven additional all-star season, with 1879, 84, and 85 falling a notch below MVP quality.
218 Richardson, Hardy - 1880s stud - below Roberto Alomar, but could be similar to largely undocumented career of Frank Grant.
219 McVey, Cal - similar to Bresnahan and Quincy Trouppe in overall value.
221 Hernandez, Keith - just above George Sisler in overall value. Fine hitter, excellent defender in 1980s.
222 Trouppe, Quincy - Hall of Fame has already elected similar valued Biz Mackey, although Trouppe's offense is superior, while Mackey wins the defensive battle.
224 Cravath, Gavvy - A monstrous bat from 1913-17 at the ages of 31-36, with an outstanding MVP type campaign in 1915, and was arguably the top NL position player in 1913. An all-star in 1919 as well, with filler in 1912. The MLE’s provided by Chris Cobb and Dan Rosenheck’s translation shows a player that ranks at this level or higher. This placement is based upon his fielding being poor rather than historically awful. Projecting his career is extremely challenging. Greatest slugger before Babe Ruth, partly due to the friendly confines of Baker Park in Philadelphia.
234 Monroe, Bill - Upon looking at Brent’s MLE’s, Monroe stats seem to fit a HOM profile. Projected 8100 PA’s, OPS+ 133, with positive defensive value. His fielding reputation is shown as being equal to or greater than Jimmy Collins. He appeared to bat in key lineup spots on great teams. Good enough to play 2B/3B in his time defensively and with the stick. As for reputations, resident Negro Leagues expert Gary A mentioned four players worthy of Hall of Fame induction in an interview recently with Scott Simkus. Three of those (John Beckwith, Home Run Johnson, and Dick Lundy) have been elected. The other is Monroe.
237 McCormick, Jim - 1880s hurler standout -tough to gauge pre-1893 era pitching properly, but I'll give a nod to McCormick.
238 Pike, Lip - very challenging 1860/70s player who I'll place above the line.
241 Boyer, Ken - enough to nudge him across the line with Korean war credit.
242 Bell, Buddy - I'll take him over Bando and Leach, but the battle is close.
243 Pierce, Billy - 1950s hurler from era lacking in electees.
244 Tiant, Luis - right on the in/out line - what a windup.

Worthy of consideration and better than the already elected bottom tier Hall of Famers:
Willie Randolph - I would take him instead of Nellie Fox or Red Schoendienst. An overlooked Yankee great.
   37. The Id of SugarBear Blanks Posted: December 28, 2010 at 08:31 PM (#3719003)
Alomar
Bagwell
Blyleven
Larkin
Edgar
McGriff
Morris
Raines
Trammell
Walker

Those would be the only ones I would name even if there wasn't a 10-vote limit. My 11th would be Kevin Brown and if I had a ballot, I'd wait a year and come back to him. McGwire and Palmeiro are PED-adjusted out, the latter without ambiguity or remorse. Parker's late-70s was better than Rice's, his "comeback" was admirable, and he was a better player than Rice, but the Cobra ultimately squandered HOF talent. Raines should have been elected on the first or second ballot, and Trammell on the third or fourth.

Morris we've been through the proverbial eleventy billion times, and the group continues to underestimate his complete games and wins and high quality "playing ability," an explicit HOF voting criteria. The data recently posted extending his postseason to "pennant race" games has been unfairly maligned as cherry-picking when there was essentially no data mining involved. When he's ultimately elected, this year or next, and Blyleven's rightfully elected this year, a lot of the "it's one or the other, either Blyleven or Morris" sentiment will fade and Morris's many achievements will begin to receive their just due, even here.
   38. rawagman Posted: December 28, 2010 at 08:49 PM (#3719017)
I'm currently on vacation, so my spreadsheets are not available to me. In its stead, I will be voting based on my memory of their stats as well as the ubiquitous gut feel. I know a Hall of Famer when I see his baseball-reference.com page.
The following is in no particular, but some vaguely placed, order:

1) Roberto Alomar
2) Jeff Bagwell
3) Bert Blyleven
4) Barry Larkin
5) Edgar Martinez
6) Rafael Palmeiro
7) Tim Raines
8) Alan Trammell
9) Larry Walker
10) Kevin Brown

As Jim Caple wrote last week, there are more good candidates than spots on the ballot. If we did not have limits to how many we could vote for, I woiuld also mark the names of Fred McGriff, Mark McGwire and Dale Murphy on my ballot. I would also not frown upon a ballot that included the names of Lee Smith and/or Don Mattingly. Any other names are more than a little silly in this company.
   39. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: December 28, 2010 at 08:50 PM (#3719018)
Roberto Alomar
Jeff Bagwell
Bert Blyleven
Barry Larkin
Tim Raines
Alan Trammell
Larry Walker

For other voters who do account for PED use, note that the Mitchell Report had good evidence on Brown (via wiki):
The Mitchell Report named Brown as one of a group of Los Angeles Dodgers implicated in steroid use. The report documents allegations by Kirk Radomski that he sold Brown human growth hormone and Deca-Durabolin over a period of two or three years beginning in either 2000 or 2001. Radomski claims he was introduced to Brown by Paul Lo Duca. Radomski's claims were supported by an Express Mail receipt dated June 7, 2004, addressed to Brown. The report also contains notes from a meeting of Dodgers executives in 2003 during which they question the medication Brown takes and include a note stating "Steroids speculated by GM". Brown declined to meet with the Mitchell investigators.[5]


I'm just not there yet on Edgar. He looks like he needs minor league credit to get in over the top, from an era that saw a lot of great hitters, and I'm very loath to give minor league credit in the contemporary era.
   40. John DiFool2 Posted: December 28, 2010 at 08:52 PM (#3719020)
Bleed, note that several of your votes were for people who weren't eligible (unfairly eliminated or not).

Roberto Alomar
Jeff Bagwell
Bert Blyleven
Barry Larkin
Edgar Martinez
Mark McGwire
Tim Raines
Alan Trammell
Larry Walker
Kevin Brown
   41. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: December 28, 2010 at 08:53 PM (#3719022)
I'm shocked at the weakness of support for Kevin Brown, given that he sailed into the HoM. Is it the steroids? That he was, perhaps, the world's biggest #######? Statistically, he's a no-brainer, and he had his best seasons on winning teams (SD, FLA) and some of his best games in pressure games (famously, the matchup against Randy Johnson in the NLDS), so something intangible must be influencing votes.
   42. Rob_Wood Posted: December 28, 2010 at 08:58 PM (#3719026)
Robert Alomar
Jeff Bagwell
Bert Blyleven
Kevin Brown
Barry Larkin
Mark McGwire
Rafael Palmeiro
Tim Raines
Alan Trammell
Larry Walker
   43. OCF Posted: December 28, 2010 at 08:59 PM (#3719030)
I voted for 8 last year and none got elected. Something's got to give this year.

Alomar
Bagwell
Blyleven
Brown
Larkin
Martinez
McGwire
Raines
Trammell
Walker

I did vote for McGriff last year and I would vote for both Palmeiro and Olerud.

I am confused by what Bleed the Freak is doing. He has two ineligibles above his line in Whitaker and Reuschel. If we say he's voting for those above his line, then he's voting for 8 (and notably not including Alomar). Is that the correct interpretation or not?

I note that through 42 ballots, we're at 9.43 candidates per voter - and that's counting Bleed the Freak with 8.
   44. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: December 28, 2010 at 09:01 PM (#3719033)
I am confused by what Bleed the Freak is doing. He has two ineligibles above his line in Whitaker and Reuschel. If we say he's voting for those above his line, then he's voting for 8 (and notably not including Alomar). Is that the correct interpretation or not?


I'm assuming Reuschel and Whitaker as write-ins.
   45. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: December 28, 2010 at 09:07 PM (#3719037)
icho, don't you feel silly now for inluding JM? All you had to do was wait for SBB ;)

BTW, what happens to ballots with write ins? Does that invalidate the whole ballot?
   46. shock Posted: December 28, 2010 at 09:08 PM (#3719039)
Tough... I decided to vote for 10 and simply ranked them in rough order. I am very peak-y in my voting; I don't think I'd vote for Raffy even in a less crowded ballot. Only 4 times above 5 WAR? Meh...

Alas, my 10:

Jeff Bagwell
Bert Blyleven
Alan Trammell
Edgar Martinez
Barry Larkin
Mark McGwire
Roberto Alomar
Tim Raines
Kevin Brown
Dale Murphy

Gave a long look at Johnny O, too. But alas no room and I had to choose between him or Murph.
   47. OCF Posted: December 28, 2010 at 09:09 PM (#3719041)
I think the answer is that write ins are not tallied, but the ballot remains valid if a reasonable interpretation is still possible.
   48. mex4173 Posted: December 28, 2010 at 09:13 PM (#3719044)
Alomar
Bagwell
Blyleven
Brown
Larkin
E. Martinez
Mcgwire
Raines
Trammell
Walker
   49. JoeC Posted: December 28, 2010 at 09:23 PM (#3719051)
I'm shocked at the weakness of support for Kevin Brown, given that he sailed into the HoM. Is it the steroids? That he was, perhaps, the world's biggest #######? Statistically, he's a no-brainer, and he had his best seasons on winning teams (SD, FLA) and some of his best games in pressure games (famously, the matchup against Randy Johnson in the NLDS), so something intangible must be influencing votes.


I've started to see a skepticism of pitchers' records from the current era, given how much of a glut of HOF-quality pitchers there seems to have been in the last couple of decades compared to during the 80's. I don't know that we need any more explanation than random variation, but it looks like the standard deviation of pitching performance has gone up.

Seasons with >150 ERA+ and qualified for ERA title:
1975-79: 14
1980-84: 11
1985-89: 18
1990-94: 26
1995-99: 28
2000-04: 27
2005-09: 24

(Some of that's the addition of teams, obviously, but not all of it.)

In that sort of analysis, it becomes more significant that Brown is probably only the 8th or 9th best pitcher who debuted between Clemens and Pedro (inclusive). A lot of people like to see a HOF-quality player stand out relative to his peers. I voted for Brown - I think it's mostly random variation - but I get the argument against him.
   50. Howie Menckel Posted: December 28, 2010 at 09:26 PM (#3719053)
11 HOMers on the ballot, only 10 slots. something has to give
   51. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: December 28, 2010 at 09:30 PM (#3719057)
I think the answer is that write ins are not tallied, but the ballot remains valid if a reasonable interpretation is still possible.


In the immortal words of one Arthur Fonzarelli, exactamundo, OCF. :-)
   52. BDC Posted: December 28, 2010 at 09:42 PM (#3719062)
Please give me:

Alomar
Bagwell
Blyleven
Larkin
McGwire
Raines

That's actually a lot for me; I see no reason to fill ten places and in these annual ballots I've probably never voted for more than four. But as others have noted, there are a lot of really strong candidates this year.
   53. JMPH Posted: December 28, 2010 at 09:43 PM (#3719063)
Roberto Alomar
Jeff Bagwell
Bert Blyleven
Barry Larkin
Edgar Martinez
Mark McGwire
Fred McGriff
Rafael Palmeiro
Tim Raines
Alan Trammell
   54. Jolly Old St. Nick Still Gags in October Posted: December 28, 2010 at 09:58 PM (#3719075)
Roberto Alomar
Jeff Bagwell
Bert Blyleven
Barry Larkin
Tim Raines
Alan Trammell

Very close but not quite: Larry Walker. I'll probably vote for him next year.
   55. Tristram Posted: December 28, 2010 at 09:59 PM (#3719076)
Roberto Alomar
Jeff Bagwell
Bert Blyleven
Kevin Brown
Barry Larkin
Mark McGwire
Rafael Palmeiro
Tim Raines
Alan Trammell

I'd like another pitcher to round out my ballot, but Reuschel and Stieb are ineligible; Franco, Morris and Lee Smith aren't the choices I want, and the directions for this ballot don't allow me to list personal favorite Kirk Rueter.
   56. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: December 28, 2010 at 10:07 PM (#3719079)
I voted on Poz' website, here are my choices:

Roberto Alomar
Jeff Bagwell
Bert Blyleven
Kevin Brown
Barry Larkin
Tim Raines
Alan Trammell
   57. Mike Emeigh Posted: December 28, 2010 at 10:08 PM (#3719082)
I don't know that we need any more explanation than random variation, but it looks like the standard deviation of pitching performance has gone up.


It has, and it's not random; it's not just because there are more teams, but also because those teams are using more pitchers.

-- MWE
   58. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: December 28, 2010 at 10:11 PM (#3719085)
MWE:

Lee Smith? Lee Smith???

If you could be so kind as to explain the rationale I would be most grateful.
   59. Bleed the Freak Posted: December 28, 2010 at 10:12 PM (#3719086)
OCF/44:

John Murphy is correct in post 45 that Whitaker and Reuschel are considered write-in votes, eligible under the current BBWAA voting rules.

If write-ins are not counted for the election, please replace Whitaker and Reuschel with Alomar and Palmeiro.

Thanks and I apologize for any confusion or issues this may have caused.
   60. AROM Posted: December 28, 2010 at 10:15 PM (#3719087)
If a write in movement for Lou Whitaker were organized, and he got 5% of the votes this way, would that put him back on the ballot for the following year?
   61. Paul The Paranoid Android Posted: December 28, 2010 at 10:18 PM (#3719091)
Roberto Alomar
Jeff Bagwell*
Bert Blyleven
Kevin Brown*
Barry Larkin
Edgar Martinez
Mark McGwire
Tim Raines
Alan Trammell
Larry Walker*

Murphy just misses, based on glut
   62. Yoenis Cespedes, Baseball Savant Posted: December 28, 2010 at 10:22 PM (#3719094)
Roberto Alomar
Jeff Bagwell
Bert Blyleven
Kevin Brown
Barry Larkin
Edgar Martinez
Mark McGwire
Tim Raines
Alan Trammell
Larry Walker
   63. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: December 28, 2010 at 10:22 PM (#3719095)
Very close but not quite: Larry Walker. I'll probably vote for him next year.


I never get this sentiment, unless you are voting for the max. You either think he is a deserving HoFer, or you don't. His resume isn't going to change in the next year.
   64. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: December 28, 2010 at 10:27 PM (#3719099)
If write-ins are not counted for the election, please replace Whitaker and Reuschel with Alomar and Palmeiro.


Got it, BTF. Thanks!
   65. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: December 28, 2010 at 10:27 PM (#3719100)
By alpha with a little commentary for spice.

Method Man Notes
-WAR is my favorite tool.
-I look at peak (best 5 non-con years), prime (best 10 non-con), and career (total)
-I don't care about steroids.
-I don't care very much at all about post-season performance (tie-break only for the final spot on the ballot if needed).

1. Roberto Alomar
Key comps are Frisch, Larkin, and Trammell. E-Z pickins.

2. Jeff Bagwell
(Don't) Pass. But seriously, he's around the 10th best among history's 1Bs at this time.

3. Kevin Brown
Schilling, Brown, and Smoltz of 1990-2005 are the equivalents of Ford, Marichal, and Drysdale. Want to keep playing? Add Pedro and Gibson to the head of those lists. The Hall has a long history of picking pitchers like Brown. Hubbell, Vance, Drysdale, Marichal, Ford, Lemon, Newhouser, perhaps Bunning. They are all in the same family of pitchers that Brown is in: very effective per inning, medium length careers, win totals well below 300, workhorses who couldn't last long enough to rack up 4000+ innings. I think that he's roughly speaking the Marichal of his time and an easy choice for my Hall.

4. Bert Blyleven
For all the reasons we all know.

5. Barry Larkin
The brittleness makes me uneasy, but the value matters more. Comps out as a dead ringer for Trammell, Appling, or Reese (sans War credit for the latter).

6. Edgar Martinez
In my mind, he is what Harry Heilmann would have been like in the 1990s.

7. Mark McGwire
The Harm Killebrew of the 1990s. It takes all kinds. His peak/prime/career are very similar to Terry, Hernandez, Murray, and, of course, Killebrew. Less peak than some, more career than others and vise versa. Point is, he's in fine HOF company at 1B. Having him and Olerud on the same ballot makes it one of the slowest ballots in history...despite Raines!

8. Tim Raines
We all know he's an "in." I see him as essentially comparable to Goslin, Medwick, Magee, Minoso in terms of value. A step above Stargell, Williams, Cuyler, and Wheat among LFs. A step behind Kelley and Simmons. If he'd stayed at 2B, he'd be the Joe Morgan of the 1980s and 1990s. In fact, this little factoid shows why: Raines is one of 8 retired players of the retrosheet era who have an OBP 10% above the league, a SLG at or above the league, and a SB% 10% above the league. The others are Morgan, Rickey, Molitor, Dykstra, Alomar, Mantle, Bonds. [Larkin misses by 1% of OBP.] Raines could do it all.

9. Rafael Palmeiro
Eddie Murray 2 works for me as a comp. 500 and/or 3000 means something when there's value like Palmeiro's to back it up. It doesn't mean too much when you're Lou Brock.

10. Alan Trammell
See Alomar and Larkin.


=====

11. Would vote for if I had 11 slots...and will vote for next year: Larry Walker. The brittleness is just a little to iffy for me to justify giving a RF the 10th slot. He's about as valuable as Keeler or Gwynn, and that's strong evidence for me. But averaging 122 games a year and rarely or never playing 150 gives me enough pause not to vote for him this year. Larkin was more brittle but had more seasons with higher game totals in the meat of his his career.

Two more things I'd like to comment on

John Olerud
Olerud is, by my reckoning, right on the line at 1B. The problem for him is this: Bagwell, Hernandez, McGwire, Palmeiro, plus Thomas. These guys will take some time to sort out (esp. Hernandez since he didn't reach 5%). And once they are taken care of, we'll be on to Thome, Giambi, and Helton. Then later come Pujols and Cabrera (and maybe Fielder). There are so many guys already as good or better in the 1B queue than Olerud that I can't justify voting for him. He'll be about as bad a mistake in 10 years as McGriff. This is the injustice of being a bubble boy I guess.

Speaking of McGriff...the BBWAA already goofed when it inducted Tony Perez, why induct someone just like him?

That's all I got. Happy new year to my HOMies!
   66. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: December 28, 2010 at 10:39 PM (#3719104)
Good to hear from you again, Eric!
   67. Jolly Old St. Nick Still Gags in October Posted: December 28, 2010 at 11:00 PM (#3719113)
Very close but not quite: Larry Walker. I'll probably vote for him next year.

I never get this sentiment, unless you are voting for the max. You either think he is a deserving HoFer, or you don't. His resume isn't going to change in the next year.


No, but the way I interpret it just might. Right now I'm at about 45% - 49% on Walker, but the percentage has been going up the more I follow these threads.
   68. Fridas Boss Posted: December 28, 2010 at 11:03 PM (#3719116)
Roberto Alomar
Jeff Bagwell
Bert Blyleven
Barry Larkin
Tim Raines
Alan Trammell
   69. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: December 28, 2010 at 11:20 PM (#3719127)
Alan Trammell
Barry Larkin
Bert Blyleven
Dave Parker
Edgar Martinez
Jeff Bagwell
Mark McGwire
Rafael Palmeiro
Roberto Alomar
Tim Raines

I was pretty disturbed by that anecdote about how Blyleven went home in the middle of the season because he was upset about not getting enough complete games. But if Chuck Tanner thinks he should be in the HoF, that addresses my concerns.
   70. crawjo Posted: December 28, 2010 at 11:26 PM (#3719130)
Roberto Alomar
Jeff Bagwell
Bert Blyleven
Kevin Brown
Barry Larkin
Edgar Martinez
Mark McGwire
Rafael Palmeiro
Tim Raines
Alan Trammell
   71. vortex of dissipation Posted: December 28, 2010 at 11:26 PM (#3719131)
Roberto Alomar
Jeff Bagwell
Bert Blyleven
Barry Larkin
Edgar Martinez
Mark McGwire
Rafael Palmeiro
Tim Raines
Alan Trammell
Larry Walker

First time I've ever voted for ten players...
   72. Jittery McFrog Posted: December 28, 2010 at 11:37 PM (#3719139)
Roberto Alomar
Jeff Bagwell
Bert Blyleven
Kevin Brown
Barry Larkin
Mark McGwire
Dale Murphy
Tim Raines
Alan Trammell
Larry Walker

Would get my vote if I had more slots:
Edgar Martinez
   73. Rivers McCown Posted: December 28, 2010 at 11:41 PM (#3719142)
Roberto Alomar
Jeff Bagwell*
Bert Blyleven
Barry Larkin
Mark McGwire
Rafael Palmeiro*
Tim Raines
Alan Trammell
   74. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 29, 2010 at 12:00 AM (#3719154)
The logjam problem's really going to get awful if it's getting to the point where you can leave off legitimate HOFers due to the 10 player limit and Bonds, Clemens, Piazza, and Sosa aren't even eligible yet..

Right now, I could easily vote for 13.
   75. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: December 29, 2010 at 12:42 AM (#3719179)
The logjam problem's really going to get awful if it's getting to the point where you can leave off legitimate HOFers due to the 10 player limit

Agreed. It won't be so bad in 2012, right?
-No obvious "in" player among newbies (Bernie is strongest newbie)
-Alomar and Bly should be off the ballot due to election
-Parker is gone next year (15th year in 2011)

That alleviates some pressure, and perhaps allows Bagwell and/or Morris or Larkin to sneak in.

Then comes the avalanche! Then again, there will be a lot of folks who won't vote for Bonds, Clemens, or Sosa, especially not in their first year of eligiblity. Perhaps that is good news for Schilling, Piazza, and Biggio. Though it feels to me like bad news for sanity.

May we vote in interesting times!!!
   76. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: December 29, 2010 at 12:48 AM (#3719184)
Roberto Alomar
Jeff Bagwell
Bert Blyleven
Barry Larkin
Edgar Martinez
Mark McGwire
Larry Walker
   77. Posada Posse Posted: December 29, 2010 at 01:06 AM (#3719194)
Roberto Alomar
Jeff Bagwell
Bert Blyleven
Kevin Brown
Barry Larkin
Mark McGwire
Rafael Palmeiro
Tim Raines
Alan Trammell
Larry Walker

Tough ballot. Ordinarily I also would have voted for Edgar but ... can't justify voting for a DH in this ballot.
   78. Willie Mays Hayes Posted: December 29, 2010 at 01:33 AM (#3719206)
Roberto Alomar
Jeff Bagwell
Bert Blyleven
Kevin Brown
Barry Larkin
Edgar Martinez
Mark McGwire
Tim Raines
Alan Trammell
Larry Walker
   79. AJMcCringleberry Posted: December 29, 2010 at 05:35 AM (#3719329)
I'd vote for 15 if I could.

Roberto Alomar
Jeff Bagwell
Bert Blyleven
Kevin Brown
Barry Larkin
Mark McGwire
Rafael Palmeiro
Tim Raines
Alan Trammell
Larry Walker
   80. Nolan Giesbrecht Posted: December 29, 2010 at 05:47 AM (#3719332)
Roberto Alomar
Jeff Bagwell
Bert Blyleven
Kevin Brown
Barry Larkin
Mark McGwire
Fred McGriff
Tim Raines
Alan Trammell
Larry Walker

My last spot was between McGriff and Palmeiro. Palmeiro likely has more value, but McGriff was a little more dominant compared to his peers. I don't think I'd be one to not vote for a player who used steroids, but it works for me as a tie breaker.
   81. Repoz Posted: December 29, 2010 at 07:16 AM (#3719357)
1. Roberto Alomar
2. Bert Blyleven
3. Jeff Bagwell
4. Barry Larkin
5. Kevin Brown
6. Mark McGwire
7. Rafael Palmeiro
8. Tim Raines
9. Alan Trammell
10. Fred McGriff
   82. Everybody Loves Tyrus Raymond Posted: December 29, 2010 at 07:20 AM (#3719361)
Roberto Alomar
Barry Larkin
Tim Raines
Mark McGwire
Bert Blyleven
Jeff Bagwell
Rafael Palmeiro
   83. Baldrick Posted: December 29, 2010 at 07:26 AM (#3719363)
Roberto Alomar
Jeff Bagwell
Bert Blyleven
Barry Larkin
Edgar Martinez
Mark McGwire
Fred McGriff
Tim Raines
Alan Trammell
Larry Walker

I'd also include Brown and Palmeiro if I could vote for more. My attitude toward steroids is that they give me some pause on a candidate. I won't use it to exclude them, but I'll certainly move them down the line in favor of other people I think deserve induction. So, the Crime Dog makes it in as my #10.
   84. DL from MN Posted: December 29, 2010 at 03:56 PM (#3719438)
Roberto Alomar
Jeff Bagwell
Bert Blyleven
Kevin Brown
Barry Larkin
Edgar Martinez
Mark McGwire
Tim Raines
Alan Trammell
Larry Walker

Had to leave off Palmeiro - close to Edgar but Edgar beats him in all the intangibles.
   85. Davo Dozier Posted: December 29, 2010 at 04:11 PM (#3719447)
1. Alomar
2. Bagwell
3. Blyleven
4. Brown
5. Larkin
6. Leiter
7. Morris
8. Palmeiro
9. Raines
10. Trammell
   86. Mike Emeigh Posted: December 29, 2010 at 04:45 PM (#3719462)
Lee Smith? Lee Smith???

If you could be so kind as to explain the rationale I would be most grateful.


Easy answer: Smith had a long career as a high-leverage reliever and was excellent in the role for most of it.

In my opinion, Smith gets a raw deal for a number of reasons:

1. The peak of his career occurred at the same time as the rapid evolution of the end-game reliever's role from the Gossage/Fingers era to the Eckersley/Hoffman/Rivera era. If he'd come on the scene 10 years earlier he'd have had a career much like Gossage's (based on how he pitched as a Gossage-like closer in his early seasons); if he'd come on the scene 10 years later he'd have had a career better than Hoffman's, and not all that far behind Rivera (based on a reasonable extrapolation back to his younger years as well as how he pitched late in his career as a Eckersley-like closer). He doesn't quite measure up to either model in most people's minds because his career straddled the boundary between the two eras.

2. Steve Garvey, 1984 and Walt Weiss, 1988. Smith's postseason experiences were not pleasant.

3. The direction that voters seem to be headed is to evaluate relief pitchers based on the perception of how dominant they were. Rivera is going to slide into the HoF easily; if Hoffman makes it, it won't be easily. Smith falls short of other relievers on that scale, in part because of the postseason failures and in part because he wasn't on a prime stage for most of his career so his most memorable moments for most people are of failure.

4. The general lack of acceptance of the relief pitcher's role in the modern game.

It's not a difficult choice if you're trying to be fair to relievers. I'd much rather see Smith in the HoF than Sutter.

-- MWE
   87. AROM Posted: December 29, 2010 at 04:57 PM (#3719470)
If you want to separate relievers from starters and induct the best of them, then Lee Smith is as good a candidate to go in. I look at their value as pitchers. Was Lee Smith more important to his teams than David Cone, Orel Hershiser, Bret Saberhagen? I don't think so. So I'll be pretty tough on relievers, the only one I'd vote for is Mariano.
   88. Martin Hemner Posted: December 29, 2010 at 05:36 PM (#3719490)
6. Leiter

Al or Mark?
   89. DL from MN Posted: December 29, 2010 at 06:02 PM (#3719498)
Among relievers: Gossage, Wilhelm, Rivera and possibly Hoffman. I have Smith and Fingers both about equal and both out.
   90. Riley Esco Posted: December 29, 2010 at 06:11 PM (#3719504)
Roberto Alomar
Jeff Bagwell
Bert Blyleven
Kevin Brown
Barry Larkin
Edgar Martinez
Mark McGwire
Alan Trammell
Tim Raines
Larry Walker

Changes from my 2010 ballot: Dawson voted in, Appier fell below 5%, McGriff bumped off my ballot by three more deserving new candidates (Bagwell, Brown and Walker).

I would have voted for McGriff, Murphy and Palmeiro if I had the room.
   91. Rafael Bellylard: Built like a Panda. Posted: December 29, 2010 at 06:14 PM (#3719507)
Alomar
Bagwell
Blyleven
Larkin
E. Martinez
McGwire
Palmiero
Raines
L. Smith
Trammell
   92. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: December 29, 2010 at 06:21 PM (#3719510)
It's not a difficult choice if you're trying to be fair to relievers. I'd much rather see Smith in the HoF than Sutter.

Thanks for the explanation.

I say "No" to both Smith and Sutter

Gossage, Wilhelm, and Rivera. Anyone after that I get real testy.
   93. SABRJoe Posted: December 29, 2010 at 06:45 PM (#3719520)
Roberto Alomar
Jeff Bagwell
Bert Blyleven
Barry Larkin
Edgar Martinez
Fred McGriff
Tim Raines
Alan Trammell
Larry Walker
   94. Davo Dozier Posted: December 29, 2010 at 07:09 PM (#3719543)
6. Leiter


Starting pitchers pitch fewer innings each year. Consequently, their overall value (WAR) is lower. However, if we want to keep the ratio of HOF pitchers to HOF batters close to its historical standards, there are two ways we can correct for this:

1) Elect more relief pitchers into the Hall of Fame, despite their decreased value (which is what the actual HOF has done); or

2) Elect more starting pitchers into the Hall of Fame, despite their decreased value.

I choose option 2.

Jack Morris and Al Leiter weren't all-time greats, but they were way more valuable than Bruce Sutter and John Franco.

The HOF has been overlooking the value of starting pitchers for too long--they haven't elected one since Nolan Ryan (I believe). I'm all for correcting that oversight.

And it's not like Al Leiter would embarass the HOF. He is a more deserving candidate than Catfish Hunter, or Herb Pennock, or Jesse Haines, or Rube Marquard... Granted, we recognize them as mistakes, but still: They're in the Hall of Fame. He's comparable to the worst HOF starting pitchers whose elections are not generally regarded as a mistake...Lefty Gomez, Dizzy Dean, Bob Lemon, Chief Bender, etc.

That, combined with what I'll loosely call a positional imbalance, makes him (and Morris) perfectly cromulent candidates.
   95. Ron Johnson Posted: December 29, 2010 at 07:13 PM (#3719548)
Roberto Alomar
Jeff Bagwell
Bert Blyleven
Kevin Brown
Barry Larkin
Edgar Martinez
Fred McGwire
Tim Raines
Alan Trammell
Larry Walker

McGriff is a tough guy to leave off. Palmeiro's not quite as tough. I could see Murphy as well.

Sadly I expect Bobby Higginson to be a one and done.
   96. caprules Posted: December 29, 2010 at 07:16 PM (#3719550)
Alomar
Bagwell
Blyleven
Larkin
Edgar
McGwire
McGriff
Raines
Trammell
Walker
   97. Davo Dozier Posted: December 29, 2010 at 07:27 PM (#3719557)
Also, I should add that--like several others--I feel there are about 14 viable candidates on the ballot.
   98. Rants Mulliniks Posted: December 29, 2010 at 07:48 PM (#3719572)
Roberto Alomar
Jeff Bagwell
Bert Blyleven
Barry Larkin
Edgar Martinez
Tim Raines
Alan Trammell
Larry Walker
   99. JoeC Posted: December 29, 2010 at 07:48 PM (#3719573)
Starting pitchers pitch fewer innings each year. Consequently, their overall value (WAR) is lower.


I don't think that's established - there are a few hypotheses that would mitigate the effect of fewer innings per year:

1) Pitchers can last longer now, so that they might have fewer innings in a season, but no fewer in a career.
2) Pitchers can use max effort on every pitch, even more than they did in Morris and Blyleven's time, allowing them to pitch more effectively (higher rate stats even if lower counting stats).
3) There is a familiarity effect, apart from the fatigue effect, that causes pitchers to be less effective the more times they go through the order - avoiding this again allows higher rate stats to counteract lower counting stats. (See Tango/MGL's research, both in The Book and on their blog, for more on this.)
4) The addition of more teams, and also more relievers, has created a wider separation between great pitchers and replacement level pitchers, so that great pitchers, even if no better, are more valuable.

Certainly the giant glut of HOF-quality pitchers coming onto the ballot in the next few years is at least a data point against changing your standards to give extra credit to starters. As I've mentioned before, maybe it's just a random thing, but it shouldn't just be assumed that it's harder to accumulate WAR now.
   100. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: December 29, 2010 at 07:58 PM (#3719585)
2) Pitchers can use max effort on every pitch, even more than they did in Morris and Blyleven's time, allowing them to pitch more effectively (higher rate stats even if lower counting stats).
3) There is a familiarity effect, apart from the fatigue effect, that causes pitchers to be less effective the more times they go through the order - avoiding this again allows higher rate stats to counteract lower counting stats. (See Tango/MGL's research, both in The Book and on their blog, for more on this.)


I actually agree with your overall point, but these two reasons don't support it at all. The, se increase the effectiveness for all pitchers, meaning it is no easier to get more value per inning. In essence, it lowere every pitchers ERA, which in turn moves the replacement level ERA to a lower threshold.

In addition (I have not looked into this) you could argue that the lower ERA's from relievers artificially lower the league ERA further, making it actually harder for starters to accumulate value.
Page 1 of 2 pages  1 2 > 

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
robneyer
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Syndicate

Page rendered in 0.8755 seconds
49 querie(s) executed