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Tuesday, January 04, 2011

2011 BBTF HOF Results: Bagwell, Larkin, Alomar, Raines, Blyleven, Trammell and McGwire!

In his first year of eligibility, Astros first baseman Jeff Bagwell easily won election in our mock election with an almost unanimous 99% of the vote.

Keystone-sack great Roberto Alomar and legendary Cincinnati shortstop Barry Larkin once again had stellar vote percentages as they did in their first year on the ballot last year. Larkin had 99% and Alomar got 98%..

Fourth-year BBTF pick Tim Raines earned yet another impressive percentage - 98% (he had 99% in 2008, 100% in 2009 and 97% in 2010).

His sixth time on a BBTF ballot, curveball specialist Bert Blyleven had another fine outcome with 97% of ballots posted (he had 96% in 2005, 2006 and 2008, 87% in 2007 and 97% in 2009 and 2010).

Tiger shortstop Alan Trammell also did well again with his 93% (he had 79% in 2005, 81% in 2006, 84% in 2007, 83% in 2008, 94% in 2009 and 90% in 2010).

Last but not least, powerful slugger Mark McGwire comfortably made it past 75% again this year with 84% (he had 69% in 2007, 76% in 2008, 84% in 2009 and 82% in 2010).

Rounding out the top-ten were:  Larry Walker (close in his first year of eligibility), Edgar Martinez and Kevin Brown (another first-year candidate).

New candidates: Carlos Baerga, Bret Boone, Juan Gonzalez, Marquis Grissom, Lenny Harris, Bobby Higginson, Charles Johnson, Tino Martinez, Raul Mondesi, Kirk Reuter, Benito Santiago and B.J. Surhoff received no votes.

126 ballots were posted (the record is 151 in 2010).

How will the BBWAA compare?

As for our HoM subgroup, Bagwell, Larkin, Raines and Trammell were all unanimous picks, Blyleven and Alomar earned 97%, McGwire received 94% and newbies Walker and Brown made it over 75% (84% and 81% respectively). HoMer Martinez missed again with 61% (he had 73% in 2010). 

Thanks to everyone who submitted a ballot or joined in the discussion! Thanks also to OCF for help with the tally!

RK   LY  Player           PTS  Bal   1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9 10 11 12 13 14 15
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1T  n/e  Jeff Bagwell     125  125               
1T    2T Barry Larkin     125  125                     
 3    1  Roberto Alomar   124  124                 
 4    2T Tim Raines       123  123            
 5    4  Bert Blyleven    122  122                          
 6    5  Alan Trammell    117  117          
 7    6  Mark McGwire     106  106              
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 8  n/e  Larry Walker      85   85                
 9    7  Edgar Martinez    78   78               
10  n/e  Kevin Brown       64   64                      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
11  n/e  Rafael Palmeiro   45   45                        
12    9  Fred McGriff      18   18                       
13   10  Dale Murphy       13   13                     
14   11  Lee Smith         11   11                       
15   12  Dave Parker        5    5                             
16   13T Jack Morris        4    4                                  
17T  17  Harold Baines      1    1                               
17T n/e  John Franco        1    1                                           
17T n/e  Al Leiter          1    1                                          
17T n/e  John Olerud        1    1                                       
Ballots Cast: 126
RK   LY  Player           PTS  Bal   1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9 10 11 12 13 14 15
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1T  n/e  Jeff Bagwell      31   31                        
1T    1T Barry Larkin      31   31                                
1T    1T Tim Raines        31   31                        
1T    1T Alan Trammell     31   31                    
5T    4T Roberto Alomar    30   30                   
5T    4T Bert Blyleven     30   30                                
 7    4T Mark McGwire      29   29                                    
 8  n/e  Larry Walker      26   26                                    
 9  n/e  Kevin Brown       25   25                 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
10    7  Edgar Martinez    19   19                        
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
11  n/e  Rafael Palmeiro   13   13                                 
12   12  Lee Smith          3    3                           
13T   9  Dale Murphy        1    1                                             
13T  11  Dave Parker        1    1                                          
Ballots Cast: 31

 

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: January 04, 2011 at 10:30 PM | 44 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: January 05, 2011 at 03:12 AM (#3723627)
hot topic
   2. Juan V Posted: January 05, 2011 at 03:17 AM (#3723629)
Kevin Bagwell?
   3. dlf Posted: January 05, 2011 at 03:17 AM (#3723630)
Who is that player with the most votes? Subliminal attempt to get more folks to vote for Brown?
   4. Kiko Sakata Posted: January 05, 2011 at 03:20 AM (#3723633)
What was the average number of names per ballot?
   5. Best Regards, President of Comfort, Esq. Posted: January 05, 2011 at 03:21 AM (#3723634)
Someone had voted for Fred McGwire.
   6. DL from MN Posted: January 05, 2011 at 03:28 AM (#3723638)
Jack Morris failed to reach 5% and didn't get a single HoM voter to bite.

Someone was looking for a position player analogy for Morris. Jack Morris = Gil Hodges
   7. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: January 05, 2011 at 03:32 AM (#3723641)
I am calculator fail

Consider this an opportunity to point and laugh at me,

FPH
   8. OCF Posted: January 05, 2011 at 03:34 AM (#3723645)
9.28 votes per ballot (higher within the HoM voters group).

To answer the question, "and who didn't vote for ___ "

Bagwell: icho1977

Larkin: Lassus

Alomar: fra paolo, bobm

Raines: Mike Emeigh, Athletic Supporter, dlf

Blyleven: fra paolo, Mike Emeigh, Adam B, dlf

Trammell: Fancy Pants Handle, Mike Emeigh, Ned Colletti makes me..., icho 977, Bob Dernier Cri, Athletic Supporter, Rolling Ricky, Chuck Norris Jim Rice, Adam B

Mike Emeigh was the smallest-Hall voter, with 4 names on his. Chuck Norris Jim Rice had 5.

# of voters with 4: 1
# of voters with 5: 1
# of voters with 6: 4
# of voters with 7: 12
# of voters with 8: 9
# of voters with 9: 10
# of voters with 10: 89

How many would have voted for more than 10 if they could have? Not systematically tallied, but I'll estimate the number as at least 40.
   9. Lassus Posted: January 05, 2011 at 03:40 AM (#3723651)
In case anyone is wondering, I was the one person who didn't vote for Larkin, and my reason is pretty terrible, but knowing he was going to be BTF-elected anyhow made me feel better about it.

Due to college, I had a very effective baseball blackout from 1989 until a few years after, about 1996 or so, as I got back into it. In all honesty, I really don't even remember much about the strike at all - I don't remember the strike, period. Because of this blackout, I also have almost zero memory of Larkin playing. I mean, really, he absolutely is a complete non-figure to me. I remember Trammell better than Larkin, certainly. I remember Joel Youngblood better than Larkin.

Anyhow, it's not particularly defensible, but because of his near-unanimous support here and this non-real, non-HOM election, I felt ok with leaving him off my own particular ballot.
   10. OCF Posted: January 05, 2011 at 03:43 AM (#3723654)
I tend to count the "HoM group" a little differently than John, including long-ago voters (like Dag Nabbit); in my version, Brown falls just short within the smaller group at 25 out of 34, or 74%, but Walker makes it with 27 out of 34, or 79%. Still no Morris votes.
   11. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: January 05, 2011 at 03:46 AM (#3723655)
Still no Morris votes.


Must be because of the roids...
   12. CrosbyBird Posted: January 05, 2011 at 03:51 AM (#3723660)
I'm excited for the ridiculous backlog coming. There will be some great discussions when people have 15-20 "easy" candidates and need to select the top 10.
   13. AJMcCringleberry Posted: January 05, 2011 at 03:56 AM (#3723663)
I would've voted for 15 if I could've. If this actually counted for anything I probably would've been strategic in my voting.
   14. flournoy Posted: January 05, 2011 at 04:00 AM (#3723667)
Raines: Mike Emeigh, Athletic Supporter, dlf


Maybe a recount is in order. I also did not vote for Raines.



That wasn't because I didn't want to, only because I didn't have room. Raines was my last cut. I wanted to vote for Raines, Martinez, and Palmeiro, but couldn't.
   15. OCF Posted: January 05, 2011 at 04:02 AM (#3723669)
HoMer Martinez missed again with 61% (he had 73% in 2010).

Although this year's voters aren't exactly the same as last year's, there's a pretty good overlap. I don't think anyone explicitly changed their mind against Martinez. That is, I think that the entire decline in Martinez's vote percentage with us is accounted for by him getting crowded off the bottom of the 10-man ballot.
   16. DL from MN Posted: January 05, 2011 at 04:04 AM (#3723672)
I concur with the comments on the backlog. It is somewhat likely McGwire falls off my ballot in 2013.
   17. OCF Posted: January 05, 2011 at 04:07 AM (#3723676)
Raines: Mike Emeigh, Athletic Supporter, flournoy.

dlf did vote for Raines.

No need for a recount, I just made that mistake in the post above.
   18. Monty Posted: January 05, 2011 at 04:16 AM (#3723683)
Did my votes get tabulated? When I was accidentally banned, my posts all vanished.
   19. OCF Posted: January 05, 2011 at 04:21 AM (#3723687)
Yes, Monty's votes got counted. (The top 9, plus Palmeiro but not Brown.) So that's why the post numbers changed.
   20. Lassus Posted: January 05, 2011 at 04:30 AM (#3723695)
Monty - I dropped you an email via your profile here, let me know if you don't get it.
   21. Monty Posted: January 05, 2011 at 04:35 AM (#3723697)
Email received!
   22. John DiFool2 Posted: January 05, 2011 at 04:39 AM (#3723702)
Imagine the exploding heads if 7 guys got voted in at once by the BBWAA. This is either evidence that most everybody here thinks along similar lines (avoiding that dreaded "G****T****" moniker, understand) and/or that BBWAA voters are a pretty damned disparate lot.
   23. rr Posted: January 05, 2011 at 04:57 AM (#3723710)
I was the one person who didn't vote for Larkin,


My name is Inigo Montoya.

I think you know the rest.
   24. Best Dressed Chicken in Town Posted: January 05, 2011 at 06:57 AM (#3723753)
9.28 votes per ballot

Mike Emeigh was the smallest-Hall voter, with 4 names on his.


That's....insane. OK, a lot of people think a lot of guys haven't been inducted. But on average, everyone fills their ballots? Crazy. Had I voted, I probably would have only put the top 3 on my ballot. Hard to believe I'd be the only person to do that.
   25. Best Dressed Chicken in Town Posted: January 05, 2011 at 07:01 AM (#3723757)
most everybody here thinks along similar lines

They do, but of course they did in past seasons too. The question is who would have been inducted among players left on the "BTF ballot" this year. Bagwell. The other 6 would have already been inducted. Who else might have gotten votes if not displaced by the 17 names each voter put in his ballot? I guess Walker, Martinez, and Brown all might have had a chance (I don't know if Martinez "made it" last year).
   26. CrosbyBird Posted: January 05, 2011 at 07:48 AM (#3723765)
That's....insane. OK, a lot of people think a lot of guys haven't been inducted. But on average, everyone fills their ballots? Crazy. Had I voted, I probably would have only put the top 3 on my ballot. Hard to believe I'd be the only person to do that.

Why? Do you think there are only three legitimate HOF candidates on that list? Or just that inducting more than 3 players in a single year is a problem?

2012 will probably be the last year where I won't have to rank the players I think are deserving, because of the backlog. I'm not comfortable leaving slots open on the ballot when there are still deserving candidates.

Seven inductees in one year looks ridiculous, but it would have probably been two or three if the non-Bagwell guys had already been in the HOF like they should be. (They have been inducted in every single year they've been on the BBTF ballot.)
   27. OCF Posted: January 05, 2011 at 08:34 AM (#3723774)
(I don't know if Martinez "made it" last year).

Here is the link you want. No, Martinez didn't quite make it last year, although he was very close. As CrosbyBird said, it wouldn't be such a large number of electees if the HoF itself would go ahead and take some of them off the ballot (in the correct direction). We "elected" six last year and they all returned - and we had a new election with four highly plausible new candidates in Bagwell, Walker, Brown, and Palmeiro. So what did we do? We retained the six already "elected" and added just one more (Bagwell) to make it seven. There is clear evidence that all of Martinez, Walker, Brown, and Palmeiro had their votes partly suppressed by the 10-man ballot limit.
   28. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: January 05, 2011 at 01:02 PM (#3723791)
   29. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: January 05, 2011 at 01:11 PM (#3723793)
Mark McGwire 84%

Jack Morris 0%


If anyone wants to know what the difference is between the Hall of Fame and the Hall of Merit, there's your answer right there.
   30. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: January 05, 2011 at 01:11 PM (#3723794)
Seven inductees in one year looks ridiculous, but it would have probably been two or three if the non-Bagwell guys had already been in the HOF like they should be. (They have been inducted in every single year they've been on the BBTF ballot.)


At some point, either the BBWAA or the Vets Committee will rectify this. You can bet on it.
   31. Jose Canusee Posted: January 05, 2011 at 03:48 PM (#3723920)
You can bet on it.

Pete says thanks for the tip.
   32. Best Dressed Chicken in Town Posted: January 05, 2011 at 03:58 PM (#3723931)
Why? Do you think there are only three legitimate HOF candidates on that list? Or just that inducting more than 3 players in a single year is a problem?

No, there are obviously more than three legit candidates. Not every candidate is ultimately deserving of a vote, however. I was just very surprised that of ~130 voters, almost every single one voted for 10 guys. Most voters here seem to base their standards on "What are the HOF's historical standards?" than any personal opinion.
   33. JJ1986 Posted: January 05, 2011 at 04:02 PM (#3723938)
If anyone wants to know what the difference is between the Hall of Fame and the Hall of Merit, there's your answer right there.


This is a HOF mock vote. And McGwire was 10000x more famous than Morris was.
   34. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: January 05, 2011 at 04:07 PM (#3723944)
If anyone wants to know what the difference is between the Hall of Fame and the Hall of Merit, there's your answer right there.

This is a HOF mock vote. And McGwire was 10000x more famous than Morris was.


Hmmm, then I guess the real HoF should have picked up that remaindered Lupica book, which they can still get for $0.01 on Amazon.
   35. CrosbyBird Posted: January 05, 2011 at 04:11 PM (#3723949)
Not every candidate is ultimately deserving of a vote, however.

Which of the seven candidates that were inducted do you think don't deserve votes.

Most voters here seem to base their standards on "What are the HOF's historical standards?" than any personal opinion.

I don't agree. Most voters here seem to base their standards primarily on the statistical records, and most don't apply much of a steroid penalty. There's all your difference.

I don't think there's a single player on my 10-man ballot that isn't clearly above the historical statistical standards of the HOF, if you don't ignore the mistakes. Even if you ignore all of the mistake candidates, I still don't think any of my selections would be the worst HOFer.

The weakest player I selected is either Kevin Brown or Tim Raines. I don't see either of them as remotely soft candidates.
   36. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: January 05, 2011 at 04:16 PM (#3723954)
Andy - are you saying that Morris has a legitimate Hall of Fame case? Doesn't he much more closely resemble various non-HoFers than the few guys (Catfish, mostly) that have been inducted and aren't obviously superior?

The Hall of Fame and Hall of Merit have dealt with cheating and amphetamines and roids differently, but that doesn't seem to me to have anything to do with Morris. Sometimes the writers and the VC make mistakes. Morris would be one of those. He shouldn't be taken as somehow representative of the Hall of Fame. (especially since he hasn't been inducted and more likely than not won't be until he gets to the veterans committee.)

EDIT: I think the Hall of Merit has made mistakes, too. They are way too credulous about fielding statistics, and I think Darrell Evans is an obvious mistake - a guy no one thought was a good 3b, who got moved off 3B by a club that didn't even have a good internal option to replace him, but he's rated as if he were a gold glover at third up till the end.
   37. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: January 05, 2011 at 04:28 PM (#3723972)
There is clear evidence that all of Martinez, Walker, Brown, and Palmeiro had their votes partly suppressed by the 10-man ballot limit.

I would have voted for Palmeiro (and maybe a couple of others outside of the top 11) without the limit.
   38. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: January 05, 2011 at 04:33 PM (#3723979)
I was just very surprised that of ~130 voters, almost every single one voted for 10 guys.


It's the first time I have ever had anywhere near a full ballot. The BBWAA backlog changed that this year.
   39. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: January 05, 2011 at 04:37 PM (#3723984)
There is clear evidence that all of Martinez, Walker, Brown, and Palmeiro had their votes partly suppressed by the 10-man ballot limit.

I would have voted for Palmeiro (and maybe a couple of others outside of the top 11) without the limit.


I would have had Palmeiro on my balot if I could (Walker and Brown were already there, while I'm not convinced Martinez deserves the nod).
   40. JJ1986 Posted: January 05, 2011 at 04:39 PM (#3723987)
Hmmm, then I guess the real HoF should have picked up that remaindered Lupica book, which they can still get for $0.01 on Amazon.


There's little point in reading about it; to understand McGwire you just had to be there.
   41. ahall21 Posted: January 26, 2011 at 02:24 AM (#3736379)
It's unthinkable that Alan Trammel is not in the Hall, and Mac and Palmeiro deserve to be there, but sadly, will probably never make it.
   42. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: February 05, 2011 at 12:48 PM (#3743899)
#36 regarding Darrell Evans is WAY over the top.

He got moved off 3B for a team without an option? Are you talking about Jerry Royster in 1976? Because Royster hit .333 in AAA the year before, and at the time was considered quite the prospect I assume. He went on to play some SS and a fair amount of 2B in the majors, so to say Evans wasn't perceived as being as good of a defensive 3B as Royster is not a knock.

Evans was traded, and what did the Giants do? Of course, they put him right back at 3B displacing Bill Madlock. Where he stayed until he was 36 years old.

Heck at the age of 35, in a pennant race that went down to the last day of the season - Frank Robinson played him at SS for 8 starts and 13 games. That's hardly a guy who no one thought could play 3B.

Was he Brooks Robinson? No. But he was overall at least an average 3B, with a couple of above average seasons thrown in.

Oh yeah, and he also hit 414 home runs, back when unless you were Dave Kingman, 400 home runs was automatic Hall of Fame induction, even if you weren't playing a somewhat key defensive position to boot. He also had a .361 career OBP, so it wasn't like all he did was hit HR.

Sure the Hall of Merit has made a couple of mistakes - no one will ever agree with every selection. Darrell Evans isn't remotely close to being one of those mistakes.
   43. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: February 05, 2011 at 02:27 PM (#3743920)
Jack Morris failed to reach 5% and didn't get a single HoM voter to bite.

Someone was looking for a position player analogy for Morris. Jack Morris = Gil Hodges


Phil Rizzuto?
   44. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: February 05, 2011 at 03:34 PM (#3743947)
Andy - are you saying that Morris has a legitimate Hall of Fame case?

If you mean, "Would you vote for him?", then the answer is no, and for pretty much the same reasons that mirror the views on Morris expressed here on a routine basis. I'd put him in my HoVG, but not in either the HoM or the HoF.

But if you mean, "do I think that Morris is the type of player whom many casual fans and some writers would see as a legitimate HoF candidate, based on various subjective factors along with some cherrypicked numbers and highlights?", then the answer is yes.

---------------------

Hmmm, then I guess the real HoF should have picked up that remaindered Lupica book, which they can still get for $0.01 on Amazon.

There's little point in reading about it; to understand McGwire you just had to be there.


Unless by that you mean that I had to be there in person, I can assure you that I was, though I began to leave the boat when he came out with that "I'm in awe of myself" line.

And AFAIC McGwire remains the poster child for one essential distinction** between the HoF and the HoM, and vive la difference.

**with the other key distinction going in the opposite direction, centering on players like Dizzy Dean, who IMO is a solid HoF pick but a dubious choice for the HoM

---------------------

Sure the Hall of Merit has made a couple of mistakes - no one will ever agree with every selection. Darrell Evans isn't remotely close to being one of those mistakes.

Not only do I agree with that assessment of Evans, but he's the perfect example of the value of the HoM, and even more, the discussions that surround it. Before I started reading about him here, I never would have thought of him as a HoFer in a million years.

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