Bagwell
Larkin
Martinez
McGwire
Palmiero
Raines
Trammell
Walker

[Duplicate comment deleted]

Bagwell
Larkin
Martinez
McGriff
McGwire
Murphy
Palmeiro
Raines
Trammell
Walker

Bagwell
Larkin
Martinez
McGwire
Palmeiro
Raines
Trammell
Walker

Gimme:

Bagwell
Larkin
E. Martinez
McGwire
Palmeiro
Raines
L. Smith
Trammell

I am a pretty small-Hall guy, but there are so many deserving candidates (especially since I've decided that PEDs are irrelevant) that my ballot is nearly full. I see what y'all mean about the glut of great players reaching the ballot nowadays.

Bagwell
Larkin
Martinez
McGwire
Palmeiro
Raines
Trammell
Walker
Williams

Bagwell
Larkin
Martinez
McGriff
McGwire
Murphy
Raines
Trammell
Walker

Jeff Bagwell
Barry Larkin
Edgar Martinez
Mark McGwire
Rafael Palmeiro
Tim Raines
Alan Trammell
Larry Walker
Bernie Williams

Bernie is 91st all-time in OWAR, behind only 5 HoF CFers (plus Junior and Wynn, and in a virtual tie with Edmonds); I simply remain doubtful that the Yankees could win pennant after pennant with a slug manning the huge CF in Yankee Stadium.

65. Ron J Posted: January 03, 2012 at 02:29 AM (#4027425)

Jeff Bagwell
Barry Larkin
Edgar Martinez
Mark McGwire
Fred McGriff
Dale Murphy
Tim Raines
Alan Trammell
Larry Walker

Heavy on peak/prime, Ron. Does that expain your vote for McGriff but not for Palmeiro?

Jeff Bagwell
Tim Raines
Barry Larkin
Mark McGwire
Rafael Palmeiro
Alan Trammell
Edgar Martinez
Larry Walker

For the HOF 75% system, I max out my ballot unless there aren't 10 candidates even close to worthy. All 10 of these candidates are within my top 50 HOM-eligibles. (McGriff is also pretty close, but no room.)

Jeff Bagwell
Barry Larkin
Edgar Martinez
Mark McGwire
Dale Murphy
Rafael Palmeiro
Tim Raines
Alan Trammell
Larry Walker
Bernie Williams

Bagwell
Larkin
Martinez
McGwire
Raines
Trammell
Walker

I feel bad about Bernie. I love that guy, but my awareness of stats and defense happened RIGHT when he fell off the cliff. Oh well.

As I've noted many times, I don't care about pros using steroids.

Bagwell - I don't think the general public realizes just how good he was. Easy choice.
Larkin - Derek Jeter, except with less durability and much more value in the field and on the bases.
McGwire - Look at his bbref page - he averaged 50 HR per 162 games. I know it was a stupid era for HR, but from '87-'00 Bonds was the only one within 100 HRs of McGwire (and he had 73 fewer HR in 1400 more PA).
Murphy - From '80-'85, he was top 2 in the league in offensive WAR 4 times. That's a nice peak.
Raines - See Bagwell.
Trammell - It's too bad guys like Larkin and Trammell are seen as less than Jeter, who's not as good but happens to play on the most covered team in the league (and, while he's played there, the best team in the league).
Walker - Yea, he played on a whiffle-ball field, but (1) that wasn't his fault, (2) he was able to take full advantage of where he played, and (3)he was also an excellent defender and baserunner.

I don't think people penalize DHs enough. To me, if you can't even play 1B, you need to be stupid good as a hitter which Martinez isn't. He's a little better hitter than Jason Giambi (147 OPS+ in 8672 PA vs. 142 OPS+ in 8509 PA), but as bad as Giambi was with the glove he was still the DH for only 2100 PA vs. 6200 PA for Martinez. When I look at that, I can't justify Martinez for HOF.

Jeff Bagwell
Barry Larkin
Edgar Martinez
Mark McGwire
Fred McGriff
Jack Morris
Tim Raines
Alan Trammell

Jeff Bagwell
Barry Larkin
Edgar Martinez
Mark McGwire
Rafael Palmeiro
Tim Raines
Alan Trammell
Larry Walker

TDF - somebody has to DH. The two dozen games Martinez played first, he was pretty unremarkable either way. If he had been forcing the Mariners to field an otherwise inferior lineup, I might buy that argument, but I don't see any reason to believe that's the case.

Heavy on peak/prime, Ron. Does that expain your vote for McGriff but not for Palmeiro?

I can't speak for someone else obviously, but maybe the failed steroid test had something to do with it? For people who think juicing is relevant to the discussion, I could understand making the distinction between someone like McGwire who was using during MLB's blind eye period compared with Palmeiro, who failed a test even after the league finally cracked down and instituted clear rules against it. Personally, I don't think roids should be a disqualifier period, but if I did, I would give everyone who used prior to 2004 a free pass. If MLB itself didn't care, then I don't understand why we should either (IMHO).


The ballot that got me curious was the one that had Juan Gonzalez but not Palmeiro or McGriff. I'd be interested in hearing an argument explaining how Juan Gone was better than either of them. Two MVP's maybe?

Jeff Bagwell
Barry Larkin
Mark McGwire
Tim Raines
Alan Trammell
Larry Walker
Bernie williams

Jeff Bagwell
Barry Larkin
Tim Raines
Alan Trammell
Larry Walker
Edgar Martinez
Mark McGwire
Dale Murphy
Rafael Palmeiro
Fred McGriff


Sorry Bernie...

The ballot that got me curious was the one that had Juan Gonzalez but not Palmeiro or McGriff. I'd be interested in hearing an argument explaining how Juan Gone was better than either of them. Two MVP's maybe?

Gonzalez was one of the players I went back for a serious look at. But he clearly falls short, and so I don't have an answer as to why he'd be deserving while Palmeiro or McGriff wouldn't be.

I feel that the HoF doesn't honor enough players, and that I'd rather err on the side of honoring someone than not honoring someone, so I always fill my ballot out to 10. And 5 years ago I was having to reach down to Dave Parker or Jim Rice to fill it out, so my standards have gone up.

Jeff Bagwell
Barry Larkin
Mark McGwire
Tim Raines
Alan Trammell
Larry Walker
Edgar Martinez
Rafael Palmeiro
Fred McGriff
Bernie Williams

If I could vote for the guys who should be eligible but were knocked off by the 5% rule, drop the last 2 guys for Kevin Brown and Lou Whitaker. And probably drop Palmeiro for Will Clark, although I'm not certain about that.

Bagwell
Larkin
Martinez
McGwire
Murphy
Palmeiro
Raines
Trammell
Walker
Williams

I'm back and forth on Williams, Martinez, Palmeiro, and Murphy. I decided I like the arguments for each over the arguments against. But I could probably be convinced to change my mind on all of them.

If I could vote for the guys who should be eligible but were knocked off by the 5% rule, drop the last 2 guys for Kevin Brown and Lou Whitaker. And probably drop Palmeiro for Will Clark, although I'm not certain about that.

The more I look at Clark and Dale Murphy, the better they look to me.

I had no idea until this second that Clark had dropped off the ballot. Or I'd forgotten.

My god.

Bagwell
Larkin
McGwire
Murphy (first time supporting, gave him another look)
Raines
Trammell
Walker

Bagwell, Larkin, Raines, Trammell, sigh...McGwire and Raffy.
I want PED's outta baseball, and I'd like to see Mark and the Mustachioed Finger have to wait awhile before they get, but I have come over to the side of those who'd like to see them enshrined.

Zap double post.

Jeff Bagwell
Barry Larkin
Mark McGwire
Rafael Palmeiro
Tim Raines
Tim Salmon
Alan Trammell
Bernie Williams

I give Palmeiro credit for being FEARED year after year. Also Bernie Williams because his postseason record is basically a whole extra season of excellence, as Rany Jazayerli says.

Bagwell
Larkin
Martinez
McGwire
Raines
Trammell
Walker

McGriff is close, but ultimately doesn't quite make it. Palmeiro is interesting: in terms of milestones, he's the most obvious candidate on the list, but I think I'd prefer to have any of the seven I've named in terms of contribution to their team. Even so, he'd be on my list but for the 'integrity' criterion - McGwire doesn't look great on this either, but McGwire didn't perjure himself or use steroids after their prohibition by MLB.

somebody has to DH.

Someone has to be the middle reliever, too.

I'm not saying "No DH"; I'm saying that if a non-pitcher has only one thing going for him, he needs to be all-time great to get my vote. Martinez's OPS+ isn't spectacular, and he added absolutely nothing in any other part of the game. If he hit like McGwire I could see it (McGwire still adds more value because he could defend).

Think of it this way - Tom Glavine is considered a no doubt HOFer. But if a reliever came up with his rate stats, would you automatically vote for him? That's how I view Edgar Martinez because he only DHed 3/4 of the time.

Jeff Bagwell
Barry Larkin
Mark McGwire
Tim Raines
Rafael Palmeiro
Alan Trammell
Larry Walker

write Ins
David Cone
Kevin Brown
Dave Stieb

I've always said that I will vote for 10 no matter what, because the standard for modern players has become impossibly high, or rather higher than it has been for previous generations. In other words, if Highpockets Kelly, then....

Well, no, sorry. But the low end of Hall of Famers who are not obvious mistakes, that should be the threshhold for modern players, too. So:

Jeff Bagwell
Alan Trammell
Mark McGwire
Tim Raines
Barry Larkin

Dale Murphy
Don Mattingly
Rafael Palmeiro
Jack Morris

Well, on 2nd hand, I cannot make up my mind between Edgar and Walker so I'll leave them both off.

People, write in votes are cute and all, but the list of eligible candidates to choose from are clearly posted and the rules at the beginning specifically say write ins are not permitted.

Man, we're as bad as the real BBWAA when it comes to making up our own rules! :)

I find it interesting that there are ballots with Palmeiro on and not McGwire. I don't quite get why, but that's the fun of this.

My thoughts on those votes: McGwire's candidacy is based on power, and PEDS = power. Even his high walk totals can be ascribed partly to the power -- If he had less power, he still would have drawn walks with his patience and batting eye, but probably less of them, because he would have seen more strikes.

Palmeiro on the other hand is the classic compiler, and he compiled the magic number of hits and home runs. He did not have the Popeye arms or otherwise seem freakish, so even though he tested positive, he does not seem as offensive to the Steroid Warriors.

Me, I voted for both of them.

111. Mark Donelson Posted: January 03, 2012 at 01:20 PM (#4027758)

Bernie Williams

You didn't expect me to allow my unfettered shock at this one to remain unstated, did you?

Barry Larkin
Jeff Bagwell
Tim Raines
Edgar Martinez
Alan Trammell
Mark McGwire
Rafael Palmeiro
Dale Murphy

If he was eligible, I would vote for Lou Whitaker. It's a travesty that he was off the ballot so quickly. However, I wouldn't be that surprised that if in 30 years, he gets in via an old timers committee saying how one of the greatest teams ever doesn't have a member. Of course, Morris and Trammel would both get in first.

old timers committee saying how one of the greatest teams ever doesn't have a member

Sparky Anderson and Jack Morris are both likely to be in first.

You didn't expect me to allow my unfettered shock at this one to remain unstated, did you?

See my reasoning--because the system makes it so hard for people to be elected/stay on the ballot, I max it out. I like Bernie better than McGriff, basically, overall, is what it comes down to. Wouldn't and don't vote for either in HOM voting.

Sparky Anderson and Jack Morris are both likely to be in first.

I think your prediction about Sparky will hold up.

My thoughts on those votes: McGwire's candidacy is based on power, and PEDS = power. Even his high walk totals can be ascribed partly to the power -- If he had less power, he still would have drawn walks with his patience and batting eye, but probably less of them, because he would have seen more strikes.

Palmeiro on the other hand is the classic compiler, and he compiled the magic number of hits and home runs. He did not have the Popeye arms or otherwise seem freakish, so even though he tested positive, he does not seem as offensive to the Steroid Warriors.

I think you're overthinking it. I'd take McGwire too (and I voted for both of them), but I can understand how someone could prefer Palmeiro if they value career over peak and counting stats over percentages. Raffy blows Mac away in pretty much every counting stat other than homers, and he's in the top 20 all time in several big offensive categories.

And calling Palmeiro a "classic compiler" is too harsh. Harold Baines and Andre Dawson were compilers, putting up big career numbers with two decades worth of 20-25 homer, 90 rbi performances. Raffy averaged over 40 homers and close to 120 rbi's for a 9 year span (1995-2003). Sillyball era or not, that's pretty impressive.

I think you're overthinking it. I'd take McGwire too (and I voted for both of them), but I can understand how someone could prefer Palmeiro if they value career over peak and counting stats over percentages. Raffy blows Mac away in pretty much every counting stat other than homers, and he's in the top 20 all time in several big offensive categories.

If forced to choose between these players based only on statistic merit, I'd choose McGwire but it would be a painful decision. Palmeiro's peak is a tad underrated, and he's got remarkably good career value.

One reason for Palmeiro's support to be up from last year is the reason I voted for him this year. I was maxed out last year with no room for Palmeiro, but three names came off of that ballot, two in one direction and one in the other: Alomar, Blyleven, and Brown. That gave me three new slots, and I used two of them on McGriff and Palmeiro. I suspect I'm not alone in adding Palmeiro for that reason. (But this doesn't explain anything about McGwire's votes.)

'Think of it this way - Tom Glavine is considered a no doubt HOFer. But if a reliever came up with his rate stats, would you automatically vote for him? That's how I view Edgar Martinez because he only DHed 3/4 of the time.'
Except for one things, the middle reliever is pitching alot less innings than Glavine. Edgar Martinez, meanwhile, wass in the lineup everyday for 3-5 PAs helping his offense score runs. If you look at Win Shares or WAR, he's already penalized for not fielding (by not getting any points for fielding). If you are comparing him to Dick Stuart (If there was a Hall of Fame for great baseball nicknames, Dr. Strangeglove would be inner circle), you might give Stuart some credit since he'd be a DH in the modern game. Though I wouldn't extend that out beyond zeroing Stuart's negative WAR/WS in the field. Its a perfectly logically assumption on your part that Edgar would have hurt the Mariners in the field if he had had to play the field. There's one key word in that sentence though, that renders it meaningless to this discussion; 'if'. Edgar didn't actually hurt the Mariners in the field, but did help them greatly with his bat. And 147 OPS+ is 'stupid good' for a career. Its tied for 40th all time.

See my reasoning--because the system makes it so hard for people to be elected/stay on the ballot, I max it out. I like Bernie better than McGriff, basically, overall, is what it comes down to. Wouldn't and don't vote for either in HOM voting.

Also, you luurrrrrve him. :-)

McGwire still adds more value because he could defend

This argument only works if you ignore the fact that baseball is a team game. In Martinez's limited playing time, he was about as good a defensive first baseman as McGwire was. If McGwire was on a team with John Olerud, McGwire would've DHed, and that would've been best for the team. (Or McGwire would've used his star power to not DH, and I'd dock him for that.) If Martinez was unable to field, and thus forced the Mariners to field a team that was worse than one where he could field, your argument would hold. But as far as I can tell the Mariners never fielded a suboptimal team to allow Martinez to DH, so it doesn't hold.

'McGwire's candidacy is based on power, and PEDS = power' and 'Palmeiro on the other hand is the classic compiler'

Except, the evidence points more towards PEDs being used to recover from injuries quicker, not power. At least the guys getting caught don't look like 'juicers'. The 2 power guys who've been caught recently; Manny sounds more like speed than steroid bulk and Ryan Braun with his 'personal health issue' aren't exactly the stereotype of the hulking roid boy you think of. Most of the guys who've been suspended were pitchers or speed guys. The question about a compiler like Palmeiro, is: did the PEDs allow him to stay on the field more to compile those numbers?

Jeff Bagwell
Barry Larkin
Edgar Martinez
Mark McGwire
Fred McGriff
Dale Murphy
Rafael Palmeiro
Tim Raines
Alan Trammell
Larry Walker

Bagwell
Larkin
Martinez
McGwire
Palmeiro
Raines
Trammell
Murphy
Walker

Also, you luurrrrrve him. :-)

Well, sure. :)

But I lurved Mattingly even more (being more of a starry-eyed kid when he played), and he's not on my ballot.

This argument only works if you ignore the fact that baseball is a team game. In Martinez's limited playing time, he was about as good a defensive first baseman as McGwire was. If McGwire was on a team with John Olerud, McGwire would've DHed, and that would've been best for the team. (Or McGwire would've used his star power to not DH, and I'd dock him for that.) If Martinez was unable to field, and thus forced the Mariners to field a team that was worse than one where he could field, your argument would hold. But as far as I can tell the Mariners never fielded a suboptimal team to allow Martinez to DH, so it doesn't hold.

I would go even further.

Martinez DID field a position. He fielded the DH position, which an AL team is OBLIGATED to fill unless they want to have the pitcher hit. It just happens that the DH position is the easiest one, and is one where it's impossible to field better or worse than anyone else. That means it's very easy to fill, such that replacement level for it needs to be set higher than other positions.

It still is a position, though. And the value accumulated there is every bit as useful as value accumulated anywhere else.

Jeff Bagwell
Barry Larkin
Edgar Martinez
Mark McGwire
Rafael Palmeiro
Tim Raines
Alan Trammell
Larry Walker

Jeff Bagwell
Barry Larkin
Edgar Martinez
Mark McGwire
Fred McGriff
Rafael Palmeiro
Tim Raines
Alan Trammell
Larry Walker
Bernie Williams

I initially didn't have Walker (missed too many games plus Coors), McGriff (wasn't THAT good), McGwire (all he did was hit homers) or Edgar (yeah he was a great hitter, but he was a DH and I'm not giving him mL credit so he needs to be exceptional) on my list. Did some research and changed my vote to yes on all counts. Bernie was an easy one for me because I don't think postseason performance (especially small sample) should HURT a guys candidacy, but I do believe it should help and he has an extra season of probably 5+ WAR performance there. That coupled with the fact that I can't ding the guy as badly for his defense as the systems do made him a no-doubter for me.

Jeff Bagwell
Barry Larkin
Mark McGwire
Edgar Martinez
Dale Murphy
Rafael Palmiero
Tim Raines
Alan Trammell

Does anyone know why the writers are limited to 10 players? If there are clearly more than 10 deserving players (and next year there certainly will be) why shouldn't it be acceptable to vote for all of them?

Jeff Bagwell, Barry Larkin, Edgar Martinez, Mark McGwire, Rafael Palmeiro, Tim Raines, Alan Trammell

Jeff Bagwell
Barry Larkin
Edgar Martinez
Tim Raines
Alan Trammell

Jeff Bagwell
Barry Larkin
Edgar Martinez
Mark McGwire
Rafael Palmeiro
Tim Raines
Alan Trammell
Larry Walker

Does anyone know why the writers are limited to 10 players?

It's another vestige of the back-of-the-envelope formulation of the rules for election. The first election was intended to elect ten players. Ten votes, ten players elected, right? Of course, the math doesn't work that way.

I surmise that it's been retained through the decades (along with other limiting factors) to enable the voters to expend as little mental activity as possible in considering their HOF ballot.

Given the trickle of players being elected by the BBWAA in recent years (30 players in the past 20 elections), the 10-player limit now is counter-productive and will become even more so in coming years.

An article yesterday by Jim Caple talks about the rule.

Big Hall ballot... I truly believe in filling to 10 on every ballot and could never see myself feeling bad about picking a 9th and 10th spot. I work backwards, lopping off eligibles to get to 10.

In order of certainty they're deserving:

Barry Larkin
jeff Bagwell
Tim Raines
Mark McGwire
Alan Trammell
Edgar Martinez
Rafael Palmeiro
Larry Walker
Fred McGriff
Dale Murhpy

I wish I could find room for Bernie Williams, but Murhpy's better peak wins out. Salmon is inner circle HoVG and I sorta feel like the lack of even a single AS appearance makes him weirdly appealing as underappreciated. I'm not as opposed to Smith or Morris as most here, but they're a good 3-4 spots short of fitting on my ballot. Mattingly and Gonzalez are the very fringes of serious consideration. The others were easy cuts.

In order of certainty they're deserving:

Edgar Martinez
Rafael Palmeiro
Larry Walker

Funny, I see Walker as a much better candidate than Martinez or Palmeiro. Walker was a legitimately great defender and even though his numbers were boosted by Coors they were incredible numbers.

Comps for Larry Walker - Enos Slaughter, Roberto Clemente, Al Simmons. I think he's a notch above Dwight Evans.

Jeff Bagwell
Barry Larkin
Edgar Martinez
Tim Raines
Alan Trammell
Larry Walker

Jeff Bagwell
Barry Larkin
Edgar Martinez
Mark McGwire
Fred McGriff
Dale Murphy
Rafael Palmeiro
Tim Raines
Lee Smith
Alan Trammell

Funny, I see Walker as a much better candidate than Martinez or Palmeiro. Walker was a legitimately great defender and even though his numbers were boosted by Coors they were incredible numbers.

I voted for all three of them, but I actually see Palmeiro as by far the most qualified of the three. Durability is one of the most underrated and important skills there is, IMHO. And Raffy went 17 straight years spanning parts of 3 decades without ever missing more than 9 games in a season (1988-2004).

Palmeiro probably would've hit 50 homers a year if he'd played his peak in Coors.

Funny, I see Walker as a much better candidate than Martinez or Palmeiro. Walker was a legitimately great defender and even though his numbers were boosted by Coors they were incredible numbers.

I thought about that... The line between Trammell and these three was basically the "I'm sure" vs. "Not certain, but in per my ballot" line. Immediately following these three - my inner "peak vs. career" argument just went schizo and had to be committed... I think that I'm evolving into more of a peak voter, but I used to consider myself a career guy. In trying to reconcile that - I basically just left it at "I know these 3 guys are 6 through 8, but I'm tired of trying to decide how much I've evolved." That's the beauty of HoF vs. HoM -- and why I'm not a HoM voter. If I were, I wouldn't have given up so quickly and really tried to do a better job ordering them. I'm still not sure I don't prefer this order -- but absent a consistent personal system to apply to them, I figured they'd just fit in after my automatics, but before my fringe.

To be honest, putting McGriff just outside this bunch was almost as hard - but I think Palmeiro was just a more complete offensive player, Walker a more complete player period. This actually led me to think I got E-Mart right - because I think he's a better offensive player than any of them, by a decent clip. Ultimately - since I'm not entirely sold on defensive evaluation - I tend to favor offensive output as something I can clearly use.

I think Booey in #161 also makes a good point - and one I didn't consider but should have - there's a lot of value in that many seasons of playing so many games.

If I had read that first - and hadn't given up - I think I might have considered flipping Raffy and E-Mart.

Jeff Bagwell
Barry Larkin
Edgar Martinez
Mark McGwire
Tim Raines
Alan Trammell

Bagwell
Larkin
McGwire
Palmeiro
Trammell
Raines

On the Cusp: Edgar (I ding him big-time for being a DH), Bernie (a favorite, but not quite), Lee Smith (you could do worse), Larry Walker (he might make it on for me someday)

Jeff Bagwell
Barry Larkin
Edgar Martinez
Tim Raines
Alan Trammell
Larry Walker

Wouldn't have heartburn if Smith or Palmeiro were in

Wouldn't have heartburn if Smith or Palmeiro were in

But you would have heartburn if McGwire was voted in?

Jeff Bagwell
Barry Larkin
Mark McGwire
Dale Murphy
Tim Raines
Alan Trammell

Bagwell
Trammell
Larkin
Raines
McGwire
McGriff
Palmeiro
Martinez
Walker

Although tempted to consider PEDs in a sort of tie-breaker way (slightly downgrade those suspected, slightly upgrade those not suspected, bit more of a downgrade for admitted/caught users), in the end I don't think that is defensible and the better practice is to consider these guys as peers within their era without regard to PEDs. YMMV. Here's my vote:

Jeff Bagwell
Barry Larkin
Edgar Martinez
Mark McGwire
Rafael Palmeiro
Tim Raines
Alan Trammell
Larry Walker

Close but not this year: Don Mattingly (great but only shortly sustained peak that wasn't quite high enough to overcome its short length), Dale Murphy (same, but perhaps a little closer to HoF for me), Fred McGriff (probably the closest to making my "ballot" of any I didn't include, and I reserve the right to change my mind in future years), Lee Smith (if enshrined, he'd only be about the 4th or 5th best closer, a role I don't give a lot of stock to, and would soon be surpassed by several upcoming closer candidates; "8th best" or worse in a specialty role doesn't cut it), Bernie Williams (defense hurts him, but he's a far better candidate than he's being given credit for by "real" HoF voters or even seemingly the saber community), and Juan Gonzalez (no, but a fine career).

Barry Larkin
Jeff Bagwell
Tim Raines
Alan Trammell
Mark McGwire
Rafael Palmiero

since the rules say to vote for those you feel right belong on the ballot, that I had to hold off on Walker and Edgar(exactly the same player when all is said and done) and McGriff who keeps jumping to the other side of the line everytime I think I have him pegged.

69. EricC Posted: January 03, 2012 at 05:47 AM (#4027445)
2012 BBTF Hall of Fame Ballot. Strange not to have Blyleven on this time around.

Discussion:

Walker. I believe that the NL was the weaker league during his career, and therefore
that his sabermetric stats can't be taken at full face value. Pending a more
accurate estimate for league correction factors, he falls just off the ballot.

I thought the thought process was that the Al got better than the NL around 2001 or so and remained that way until around 2007.

B Larkin
J Bagwell
T Raines
A Trammell
M McGwire
R Palmeiro
L Walker
B Williams
E Martinez
D Murphy

And if I had 11 spots, I'd add McGriff.

People, write in votes are cute and all, but the list of eligible candidates to choose from are clearly posted and the rules at the beginning specifically say write ins are not permitted.

As a voter who put write-ins on my ballot, I would like to revise my ballot, if that's OK.

Restricting consideration to eligible candidates, and carefully determining the in/out line, I find two additional eligible candidates who I think are worthy HoFers: McGriff and Walker.

Ballot counters: PLEASE DELETE MY ORIGINAL BALLOT (#69) AND REPLACE WITH THIS:


Jeff Bagwell
Barry Larkin
Edgar Martinez
Fred McGriff
Mark McGwire
Rafael Palmeiro
Tim Raines
Alan Trammell
Larry Walker
Bernie Williams

I thought the thought process was that the Al got better than the NL around 2001 or so and remained that way until around 2007.

Interleague results alone would support this, although I am not sure that they give the full story. While I still tentatively think that the AL was also stronger
around 1998-2001 (based on an inter-season comparison study), I wouldn't bet the house on it.

Interleague results alone would support this, although I am not sure that they give the full story. While I still tentatively think that the AL was also stronger
around 1998-2001 (based on an inter-season comparison study), I wouldn't bet the house on it.

which is why I was wondering why the strength of the leagues would be a demerit for Walker who's career was effectively over when the Al surpassed the NL.

McGwire
Palmiero
Bagwell
Larkin
Trammell
Raines

Jeff Bagwell
Barry Larkin
Edgar Martinez
Mark McGwire
Dale Murphy
Tim Raines
Alan Trammell
Larry Walker

Come on! At least try to be subtle when you post from multiple accounts.

Vote early! Vote often!

Jeff Bagwell
Barry Larkin
Lee Smith

Jeff Bagwell
Barry Larkin
Mark McGwire
Fred McGriff
Rafael Palmeiro
Tim Raines
Alan Trammell
Larry Walker

Jeff Bagwell
Rafael Palmeiro
Mark McGwire
Tim Raines
Alan Trammell
Edgar Martinez
Barry Larkin
Dale Murphy

Larkin
Martinez
Raines
Trammell

I don't believe I've been so busy that I just found this on the day it was due. Fortunately (for you poor souls who read my stuff), I don't have to write comments. Here's the ballot

Bagwell
Larkin
McGwire
Raines
Trammell
Walker

The one comment I should make, because it makes my ballot make more sense, is that I am VERY conservative when it comes to players who are strong in career length, but whose career length is strong on years spent at DH. I just don't vote for, for example, Palmeiro in any of these elections.

- Brock Hanke

More or less in order:

Edgar Martinez
Jeff Bagwell
Barry Larkin
Tim Raines
Mark McGwire
Rafael Palmeiro
Larry Walker
Dale Murphy
Fred McGriff
Alan Trammell

Bernie Williams and Don Mattingly would have been next.

When do our results get tallied and posted here?

The election will end next Sunday on Jan 8 (8 PM EST). Results will be posted at the same time.

The one comment I should make, because it makes my ballot make more sense, is that I am VERY conservative when it comes to players who are strong in career length, but whose career length is strong on years spent at DH. I just don't vote for, for example, Palmeiro in any of these elections.

I know the differences between them in offense and peak, but Palmeiro had 2351 games in the field, which is almost 500 games longer than McGwire's entire career. Including 200 games in the OF, FWIW.

Though I do get the idea that it took Palmeiro 3000 games to accumulate the value that McGwire had in 1850 games. (On the other hand, McGwire's lack of durability hurts him.)

Barry Larkin
Jeff Bagwell
Tim Raines
Edgar Martinez
Mark McGwire
Alan Tramell
Fred McGriff
Larry Walker

Heh. Almost forgot that I hadn't voted yet here. :-)

Bagwell
Larkin
McGwire
Palmeiro
Raines
Trammell
Smith
Walker

Jeff Bagwell
Barry Larkin
Edgar Martinez
Fred McGriff
Mark McGwire
Dale Murphy
Rafael Palmeiro
Alan Trammell
Tim Raines
Larry Walker

The election is now over.

Don't know if I'll be able to get the results posted by tonight, though I promise to get them out before the Cooperstown vote is announced tomorrow (anybody know what time that would be, BTW?)

#190, John, it's 3pm EST. From the HOF website:

The results of the 69th BBWAA Hall of Fame election will be revealed at 3 p.m. ET on Jan. 9. MLB Network will carry the announcement live as Hall of Fame President Jeff Idelson delivers the results. The announcement will also be simulcast on MLB.com and at baseballhall.org.

This whole discussion about the 10-candidate limit, to me, is just not that big a deal, and should not be changed. I didn't go back all the way to the 1930s, but I picked the 25 years between 1975 and 1999 (I didn't keep going, because there are candidates who appeared in ballots from 2000 forward who are not HOFers, but who are still on the ballot, like Jack Morris. This could cause the totals to change in coming years for those elections.), and checked to see how many candidates on the ballot eventually made the HOF. It looks like this:

1975: 14 (13 made it after 1975, and one was elected in 1975)
1976: 12 (10 and 2)
1977: 11 (10 and 1)
1978: 11 (10 and 1)
1979: 11 (10 and 1)
1980: 12 (10 and 2)
1981: 12 (11 and 1)
1982: 14 (12 and 2)
1983: 12 (10 and 2)
1984: 9 (6 and 3)
1985: 9 (7 and 2)
1986: 7 (6 and 1)
1987: 6 (4 and 2)
1988: 5 (4 and 1)
1989: 8 (6 and 2)
1990: 8 (6 and 2)
1991: 8 (5 and 3)
1992: 6 (4 and 2)
1993: 5 (4 and 1)
1994: 7 (6 and 1)
1995: 7 (6 and 1)
1996: 6 (6 and 0)
1997: 6 (5 and 1)
1998: 7 (6 and 1)
1999: 9 (6 and 3)

For what it's worth:
2000: 7 (5 and 2, though Morris and Murphy are still on the ballot)
2001: 7 (5 and 2, though Morris, Murphy, and Mattingly are still on the ballot)
2002: 7 (6 and 1), Trammell is still on the ballot, as well as the guys above)
2003: 8 (6 and 2), add Lee Smith, as well
2004: 8 (6 and 2)
2005: 7 (5 and 2)
2006: 5 (4 and 1)
2007: 6 (4 and 2), add McGwire
2008: 4 (3 and 1), add Raines
2009: 4 (2 and 2)

Obviously, some of those later numbers are going to go up a little, but here are a few points worth noting:
1) It has been a long time since we've had 10 players on the ballot that were deemed worthy of HOF induction. Remember, on those figures above, that this counts HOFers who were Veterans selections (for example, Ron Santo's choice last month inflates all the totals above by one in the years 1984 to 1998. Red Schoendienst and Bill Mazeroski, and Pee Wee Reese are the same thing). A fair amount of those numbers above are Veterans picks who survived for 15 years on the ballot without gaining election.
2) I understand that there is a glut of candidates on the way for 2013 and beyond, but do we really think that more than three or four guys are getting in per year, anyway? Morris will be off the ballot, one way or another, in a few years. So will Murphy and Mattingly. Even Smith and Trammell are in their 10th and 11th ballots, respectively. There simply won't be very many current candidates on the ballot in a few years, so the ballot will have relatively few overall candidates, anyway. In 2013, about six new guys will get 5% or more, and a couple of them will probably get in on year one. In 2014, it'll be between five and seven, and almost everybody thinks that Glavine, Maddux, and Thomas will get in on year one with that class. In 2015, it's between four and six, but Randy Johnson and Pedro will prbably get in on year one. In 2016, it's three or four, and Griffey will walk in on year one. If you figure it out, there won't be that many candidates left in 2016.
3) The type of candidate most likely to suffer in any potential glut is the marginal candidate who isn't going in, anyway - like, say, Carlos Delgado or Luis Gonzalez. On the current ballot, Mattingly and Murphy.

My main point is - there usually aren't 10 really good candidates on the ballot in a given year, and it'll likely get some voters to drop their pet candidates, or marginal candidates...

I'm having problems with the ballot counter spreadsheet I normally use to create a tally worthy of posting here at BBTF, so I'm just going to announce the winners here now and worry about posting a finished product at some other time (since it's only a mock election to begin with :-): Bagwell (99%), Larkin (99%), Raines (98%), Trammell (95%) and McGwire (85%).

removed for tardiness

Within the subgroup of HoM voters, there were two more:

Bagwell (100%), Larkin (100%), Raines (97%), McGwire (93%), Trammell (90%), Palmiero (86%), Walker (83%)

Martinez was a very near miss: 72% overall and 69% within the HoM group.

Palmeiro and Walker were at 68% and 66% overall - also near misses.

The overall voting for others: McGriff (34%), Murphy (33%), Williams (20%), Smith (10%), Morris (3%), Gonzalez (1%), Mattingly (1%), Salmon (1%)

For the HoM group, that was McGriff (48%), Murphy (38%), Williams (28%), Smith (14%), Morris (7%), Mattingly (3%)

There were 137 votes overall, with 29 in the HoM group. Overall, we had 7.85 votes per ballot, with 8.55 votes per ballot in the HoM group.

These results have not been cross-checked and verified (John was using my totals), so the likelyhood of counting errors is fairly high.

Crap. How did I miss this? I mean, it's clearly here and seen by lots of people, so it's my fault. But, crap.

Anyway, my voting wouldn't have been much different.

BBTF seems to be an easier sell on these guys - almost all these guys - than the actual writers.

I'm actually a little surprised to see Larry Walker miss election. He was an excellent fielder and baserunner, it's not just Coors inflated numbers. The HoM voters are generally higher but 83-66 is one of the two biggest differences. There aren't any PED issues like there are with Palmeiro.

Here's last year's results

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/hall_of_merit/discussion/2011_bbtf_hof_results_bagwell_larkin_alomar_raines_blyleven_trammell_a

Walker actually did a smidge better last time.

Raines
Smith
Larkin
Trammell
Bagwell
Martinez
Palmerio
Walker
Morris
Murphy

Lou Whittaker also belongs. Hopefully, the revamped veterans' committee will rectify this injustice, as they did for Santo.