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Hall of Merit
— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best

Monday, January 16, 2012

2013 Hall of Merit Ballot Discussion

2013 (November 26, 2012)—elect 3*
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos

705 186.2 1986 Barry Bonds-LF
437 146.4 1984 Roger Clemens-P
428 73.8 1989 Craig Biggio-2B
325 68.7 1993 Mike Piazza-C
322 61.0 1989 Sammy Sosa-RF
252 75.4 1990 Curt Schilling-P
288 51.7 1992 Kenny Lofton-CF
297 41.3 1989 Steve Finley-CF
280 45.0 1983 Julio Franco-SS/2B
210 55.2 1988 David Wells-P
237 41.8 1995 Shawn Green-RF
209 36.7 1992 Reggie Sanders-RF
230 28.9 1994 Ryan Klesko-LF/1B
185 33.7 1994 Jose Valentin-SS
169 33.1 1995 Jeff Cirillo-3B
144 38.6 1992 Roberto Hernandez-RP
193 23.7 1993 Jeff Conine-1B/LF
159 24.4 1992 Royce Clayton-SS
151 23.7 1994 Rondell White-LF/CF
121 32.4 1992 Bob Wickman-RP
118 31.9 1993 Woody Williams-P
125 27.7 1990 Jose Mesa-RP
122 27.4 1995 Mike Lieberthal-C
120 27.4 1996 Jason Schmidt-P*
109 30.8 1997 Kelvim Escobar-P*
111 21.9 1993 Aaron Sele-P
122 12.5 1997 Todd Walker-2B

* Might be an elect-4 election this year.

Thanks to Dan for the list.

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: January 16, 2012 at 05:08 PM | 231 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   201. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: December 09, 2012 at 10:42 PM (#4320543)
I count 13 ballots as of now . . . are we still thinking Wednesday will work?
   202. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: December 09, 2012 at 10:51 PM (#4320551)
fra - I like Bucky Walters, but ahead of Mike Piazza? Could you explain further?
   203. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: December 09, 2012 at 10:51 PM (#4320552)
202 should appear when I submit this, right?

EDIT: Yep
   204. Nate the Neptunian Posted: December 09, 2012 at 11:31 PM (#4320570)
I'm still working on my ballot, but I should be ready for Wednesday.

The only change of significance from the prelim I posted, so far, is I redid the credit for Rizzuto for playing ball in the Navy, and he's going to make my ballot, pushing off Bobby Bonds. Because I based my credit for him last year on the surrounding years and those changed when I changed my uber systems, so I had to recalculate the credit. The new mix of systems was giving him more points in the surrounding years, so he got more points for the Navy years as well.

BTW, looking at last year's results thread, there was a lot of discussion as to whether this should be an elect 3 or elect 4 year. Was that ever completely decided?
   205. fra paolo Posted: December 09, 2012 at 11:47 PM (#4320578)
fra - I like Bucky Walters, but ahead of Mike Piazza? Could you explain further?

Piazza is hurt by my treatment of the 'Sillyball' 1997-2004 period, where I discount the power categories (doubles, triples, homers).

Having looked at this again, I'm now wondering whether Willis needs to be moved ahead of Piazza and Walters. His MVP-quality years weren't as 'Deadball' as I thought.
   206. Carl Goetz Posted: December 11, 2012 at 10:28 AM (#4321662)
I'll wait 24 hours (approximately) for comments/feedback before I post this to the ballot page. See post#180 in this thread for my methodology.

1)Barry Bonds: A lot better than any other position player on the ballot.
2)Roger Clemens: Ditto for pitchers.
3)Mike Piazza: Ditto for catchers.
4)Craig Biggio: Of 2B/3B/SS, he is 20 WSAB ahead on anyone in 8 year prime; better than anyone except Al Rosen in 3&5 year peak, and way ahead of anyone in career value. Easy choice for me, but he picked the wrong year to retire for a first ballot election.
5)Cannonball Dick Redding: Chris Cobb’s MLEs have him as best pitcher after Clemens. I see him as the last Negro League electee to the HOM.
6)Hugh Duffy: See Albert Belle.
7)Albert Belle: As a Prime/Peak voter, I see Duffy and Belle as similar players. Duffy with a slightly better 8 year prime (about 1.5 WSAB per yr) and Belle with the better peak. Each had 3 MVP caliber seasons. Duffy managed 7 All-CG selections compared to Albert’s 5. Ultimately that and Duffy higher career value broke the tie for me.
8)Carl Mays: Better 8 year prime than Dean and Grimes and more All-CG seasons (8). I lump the 3 together somewhat because each had 3 MVP caliber seasons and similar peak value.
9)Ken Singleton: I have Singleton and Gavvy Cravath very close in most every measure, though Cravath has slightly more career value. I gave Singleton the edge because I trust his numbers more plus they were compiled in higher quality leagues.
10)Gavvy Cravath: See Ken Singleton. Note: I gave Cravath credit for 1907,09,10,&11; based on the posted MLEs.
11)Dizzy Dean: Better prime than Burleigh Grimes. Ol’ Diz wasn’t great long, but was consistently great year-to-year during that period which I think gives him a slight leg up.
12)Al Rosen: Based entirely on 7 seasons, which has got to be a record low for a post deadball player who didn’t lose time to WWII. Those 7 seasons were better than any other 2B/3B/SS 8 year prime and featured better 3&5 year peaks as well. For 7 years, 105 WSAB is pretty respectable career value as well.
13)Burleigh Grimes: 3 MVP caliber seasons and a Diz-like peak.
14)Johnny Pesky: Similar Prime/Peak to Williamson/Bando, with more All-CG selections. He ultimately gets the nod as he played a lot of his career at SS as a more valuable position than 3B.
15)Vic Willis: I’ve gone back and forth quite a bit on this spot, but I’m going to give Vic Willis the nod here. I feel his WSAB (adjusted to 162 game season) over-state his case. Technically, those numbers are better than Mays/Dean/Grimes, but his era had crazy IP numbers which I feel overstate his value from a historical perspective. I can’t ignore his 8 All-CG selections though (especially since I spent a lot of time making them). Ultimately, he was near the top of his league in pitching more than some of the other guys who were close to this ballot.
Next 10 (in no particular order): Cicotte, Joss, Schilling, Chance, McGriff, Williamson, Bando, Frank Howard, Sosa, & (Evers,Rizzuto,Tiernan, or Bernie Williams; they are all right together at the 10th spot on this list).

Top Ten Explanations:
Sal Bando: With Ned Williamson as my next 2 3B on the ballot. Williamson edges Bando slightly on prime and peak and has more All-CG selections (6 to 3). Neither has much more career value than Rosen even though both had longer careers.

Phil Rizzuto: Similar peak to Pesky and the same number of MVP caliber and All-CG selections (1 and 7), but Pesky’s 8-year prime is significantly better (101 to 83 WSAB). The only real advantage he has over Pesky is in career value but it’s not a big advantage (and I’m not a career voter). I could see moving Scooter up my list a bit, but I can’t see moving him ahead of Pesky.

Luis Tiant: 75 WSAB 8-year prime is less than 10/year. Big knock in my system. Peak is good, but not better than a lot of guys in my system. 2 MVP seasons are the only thing that have me second-guessing myself, but while he might move up, he’s probably not making my top 25. I do understand the career value argument, but I am a peak/prime voter.

   207. rawagman Posted: December 11, 2012 at 10:59 AM (#4321689)
Carl - does all CG stand for All Carl Goetz?
Why Grimes/Willis/Dean over Schilling? Your downballot (and just off-ballot) arms are all old-timey, and other than Dean - deadball. Might there be an adjustment that needs to be made?
   208. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: December 11, 2012 at 01:48 PM (#4321835)
In case it isn't clear, this should be an elect 4.

I never was able to finish the deep calcs from last year, but we are definitely a little behind based on teams and real Hall of Fame at the beginning of the project. I did get that far. And in the initial schedule this was an elect 4 year. I will change the initial post to account for that. Any objections?
   209. Carl Goetz Posted: December 11, 2012 at 02:15 PM (#4321893)
Yes, I didn't know what else to call it, but I picked 25-man All-CG teams based on WSAB for almost all leagues. For some lesser caliber leagues I took only the cream of the crop. For example, Fred Dunlap is the only member of the 1884 UA All-CG team.

Schilling is hurt because I don't score him with any MVP caliber seasons and only 5 All-CG teams. All the players you mentioned stood out more among their own competition. That said, I do seem to have a bias towards early 20th century pitchers. I'll need to explore that next year and see if there is a flaw in my system.
   210. DL from MN Posted: December 11, 2012 at 03:01 PM (#4321965)
I'm fine with an elect 4. How do they shake out after this year?
   211. DL from MN Posted: December 11, 2012 at 03:02 PM (#4321968)
The size of an "all-star" pitching staff should go up over time to mirror the increased actual pitching staffs.
   212. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: December 11, 2012 at 04:12 PM (#4322096)
I'm fine with an elect 4. How do they shake out after this year?


It was 3, 3, 3, 4 IIRC
   213. Yardape Posted: December 11, 2012 at 06:07 PM (#4322280)
I can't understand Rizzuto behind Belanger. There can't be enough difference with the glove to make up the difference with the bat.


Well, my fascination with Belanger's defense may be leading me to overrate him. But I also boost his offense a little because of his era. Combined with his defense, that nudges him onto my ballot. That may be the wrong way to do things, and I will continue to think about it. Also, I'm being very conservative with war credit for Rizzuto as I think about that issue as well.

Yardape, yes, please do consider Ben Taylor! Also, why Grimes but not John or Kaat (pitchers who threw a lot of innings but don't have great ERA-)?


Ben Taylor probably has the best chance to make a big jump on my ballot next year; I think he might well be the best first baseman of the 1910s and that would carry a lot of weight with me. I just couldn't get to a degree of confidence this year. As for Grimes, I simply have him as being among the best in baseball more often than Kaat or John.
   214. Carl Goetz Posted: December 11, 2012 at 08:27 PM (#4322424)
"The size of an "all-star" pitching staff should go up over time to mirror the increased actual pitching staffs."

That's probably where my issue is. I just have to figure out the number of pitchers for each year and then adjust my teams. Not enough time before tomorrow for that for this year. But I doubt the 4 selections this year would be much affected by the results.
   215. Chris Cobb Posted: December 12, 2012 at 02:12 AM (#4322673)
A few days back, Bleed the Freak asked about how my PHOM differs from the HOM. I don't have a PHoM fully mapped out, and in a number of cases I am quite willing to conclude that the electorate's collective judgment is more reliable than my own, so I'm not very committed to tracking a personal hall of merit. Still, if I look at the rankings from which I build my ballot, I can identify the places where my conclusions most likely differ from the results of our elections. So, here's where I differ, divided into two groups: strong differences and weak differences. With strong differences, I think that the electorate has likely made a mistake. With weak differences, I think that the electorate's choice is pretty much as defensible as my own, but that slight preferences for peak vs. career probably tip the scale.

Not PHOM
Strong Difference - Pete Browning, Sam Thompson, Edd Roush, Bill Terry, Nellie Fox, Rollie Fingers (I may have supported Roush and Fingers when they were elected, but not the others)
Weak Difference - Monte Ward, Mordecai Brown, Dobie Moore, Earl Averill, Joe Medwick, Cool Papa Bell, Bob Lemon, Bill Freehan (Some of these I once supported, some I didn't. I tend to run slightly below HoM on catchers--I don't follow the electorate's lead on Freehan because it looks like two near contemporaries--Tenace and Munson--would probably be better choices, even though all fall a bit below my own in-out line)

PHOM
Strong Difference -- Buddy Bell, Gavvy Cravath, Bobby Bonds
Weak Difference -- Kevin Appier, Luis Tiant, Bert Campaneris, Ben Taylor, Chuck Finley, Fred Dunlap, Urban Shocker, Phil Rizzuto, Robin Ventura, Ted Breitenstein, Vic Willis
   216. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: December 12, 2012 at 01:15 PM (#4323029)
Counting me (I'll be submitting later), we have 30 ballots. This is pretty much where we were last year when we extended and ended up with 7 more.

I assume (hope?) we will get several more ballots today. So I think we should not extend the election. Are there a significant number of you out there who would submit a ballot with an extra week that won't today? Speak up soon if so . . .
   217. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: December 12, 2012 at 01:39 PM (#4323059)
Just sent a final email to the group, as well as a post on Twitter and Facebook reminding everyone to vote.
   218. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: December 12, 2012 at 03:27 PM (#4323185)
Did we ever set up a discussion for Julio Franco? Any thoughts on credit for 1998-2001 for him?
   219. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: December 12, 2012 at 04:37 PM (#4323276)
I am not getting the lack of love for Schilling . . . how could anyone have him behind Brown or Cone, for example?

EDIT: Looking closer, I take it back. There is plenty of love on the ballots for Schilling, I must have just noticed a disproportionate share of the negative comments in my skimming of the comments.
   220. Ardo Posted: December 18, 2012 at 02:56 AM (#4327465)
Joe, I can't recall if we created a Julio Franco page! His 1992 injury hurt his career trajectory. He maintained his offense, but he wasn't playing middle infield anymore. His post-1991 stat line of 3900 PA at 1B/DH with a 109 OPS+ is only marginally above replacement level.

I thought of Darrell Evans (3B to 1B/DH) but Evans had OPS+ approx. 120 in both "halves" to Franco's OPS+ approx. 110. And Evans's good 3B is at least as valuable as Franco's poor SS/2B. That's our in/out line in a nutshell.

Also, Franco's context-neutral offensive profile is a dead ringer for Buddy Bell, who was a far better defensive player than Franco.
   221. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: December 18, 2012 at 04:22 PM (#4327916)
Thanks Ardo, good summary.
   222. Bleed the Freak Posted: December 31, 2012 at 09:32 PM (#4335670)
215. Chris Cobb Posted: December 12, 2012 at 02:12 AM (#4322673)

A few days back, Bleed the Freak asked about how my PHOM differs from the HOM. I don't have a PHoM fully mapped out, and in a number of cases I am quite willing to conclude that the electorate's collective judgment is more reliable than my own, so I'm not very committed to tracking a personal hall of merit. Still, if I look at the rankings from which I build my ballot, I can identify the places where my conclusions most likely differ from the results of our elections. So, here's where I differ, divided into two groups: strong differences and weak differences. With strong differences, I think that the electorate has likely made a mistake. With weak differences, I think that the electorate's choice is pretty much as defensible as my own, but that slight preferences for peak vs. career probably tip the scale.

Not PHOM
Strong Difference - Pete Browning, Sam Thompson, Edd Roush, Bill Terry, Nellie Fox, Rollie Fingers (I may have supported Roush and Fingers when they were elected, but not the others)
Weak Difference - Monte Ward, Mordecai Brown, Dobie Moore, Earl Averill, Joe Medwick, Cool Papa Bell, Bob Lemon, Bill Freehan (Some of these I once supported, some I didn't. I tend to run slightly below HoM on catchers--I don't follow the electorate's lead on Freehan because it looks like two near contemporaries--Tenace and Munson--would probably be better choices, even though all fall a bit below my own in-out line)

PHOM
Strong Difference -- Buddy Bell, Gavvy Cravath, Bobby Bonds
Weak Difference -- Kevin Appier, Luis Tiant, Bert Campaneris, Ben Taylor, Chuck Finley, Fred Dunlap, Urban Shocker, Phil Rizzuto, Robin Ventura, Ted Breitenstein, Vic Willis


Your response is much appreciated...I have waited to reply, as I was reworking my hurler portion of the PHOM.

I agree with your non-PHOM strong differences, except for Bill Terry...he looks to be a borderline / positive selection using baseball reference...he is an easy call if you base your judgment upon DRA's defense...I received Michael Humphrey's excellent book for Christmas, and I found an excerpt about the Polo Grounds...many of the Giants 1B rate high defensively, whether they were unusually aided by ballpark or they were just plain talented...either way, I think Terry deserves a borderline mention.

I have 3 Finger Brown and Monte Ward in, although I am lukewarm about 3 Finger and I have a challenging time assessing Ward...interesting that Jimmy Sheckard is the only clear cut PHOM worthy Cub of the 19 aughts standout squads from our lists...and he wasn't elected to the Coop.

Agreed on strong PHOM exclusions of Bell and Cravath...Bell is impressive by nearly all metrics - I think the electorate has whiffed on him, and Cravath is a polarizing case in MLE credit and defensive evaluation...Bobby Bonds toes the PHOM line...If I were to de-emphasize Dan R WAR at all, Bonds would be in.

I am in the camp for Appier, Campaneris, Shocker, Rizzuto, and Willis...Appier is a Top 70 type pitcher through Joe D, Sean Smith, Baseball Reference, Baseball Gauge, and Fangraphs...Campaneris is a Dan R player...Shocker is slightly better or worse than Appier depending upon metric...Rizzuto is borderline / positive selection in the WAR systems, and an easy pick for Dan R...Willis is mediocre in Joe D's PA and borderline/out by Fangraphs WAR but is viewed favorably by Chone, B-ref, and Bgauge.

Tiant is firmly on the bubble...scores poorly by Joe D and Fangraphs, but excellent in Chone/Bref/Bgauge.
Taylor...looking for MLEs from Cobb/Rosenheck/King if possible...appears to be bubble or worthy.

Differences: Finley - borderline/in with Chone/Bref & Joe D, out with B gauge & Fangraphs...Dunlap - borderline BREF, poor DRA metrics push him to consideration set...Ventura - borderline in with Chone/bref, close in Dan R, DRA drops him out of consideration - that doesn't feel right...I always thought Ventura was a fine fielder, I will need to read up on that one...Breitenstein - close/borderline by Chone/Bref, outside consideration in other metrics - tough guy to judge, as mentioned earlier in this thread.
   223. Bleed the Freak Posted: January 01, 2013 at 12:16 AM (#4335731)
PHOM:
Significant case: Phil Rizzuto (WWII), Tommy Leach (DRA), Don Newcombe (Integration), Buddy Bell (All systems), Hilton Smith (Alex King), Bert Campaneris (Dan R), Gavvy Cravath (Chris Cobb/Dan R), Johnny Pesky (WWII), Urban Shocker (WWI), Dave Bancroft (DRA), Kevin Appier (All systems)
Minor case: Doc Gooden (Fangraphs WAR/Dan R), Thurman Munson finished 41st in 2012 (Chone/Bref/Bgauge/DRA), Vic Willis (Chone/Bref), Ned Williamson (Chone/Bref/Defensive Rep), Tommy Bond (All WAR systems - are we missing the boat, or is it simply HIGHLY difficult to evaluate 1870s hurlers - Bond even more so with the excellent teammates, Jim Whitney 7.4% 1906 vote (Fangraphs WAR - overlooked outstanding hitter/pitcher combo? - also preferred in bref to Bob Caruthers), George Uhle no votes historically (Bref/Bgauge/Fangraphs WAR - overlooked hitter/pitcher combo?), Eddie Cicotte (Bgauge), Art Fletcher no votes all-time - Nate Neptunian @ #16 this year! (DRA), Bobby Veach 17.1% 1931 vote (DRA).

HOM not PHOM:
Just miss: Bill Freehan, Stan Hack, Willard Brown, Ken Boyer (Korea), Eppa Rixey, Harry Stovey, Dobie Moore (Wreckers), Cool Papa Bell, Bob Caruthers, Joe Torre
Under consideration: Joe Medwick, Pete Browning, Ralph Kiner (Korea), Sam Thompson, Jake Beckley
Poor selections: Earl Averill (with MLE credit - what is the proper WAR for his PCL league stats?), Bob Lemon, Edd Roush (With WWI/holdout), Rollie Fingers
Asleep at the wheel: Nellie Fox

I am 1 over on the electees list...who should I boot?
   224. DL from MN Posted: January 01, 2013 at 10:20 AM (#4335803)
I like Freehan, Hack, Rixey and Torre from "Just Miss" group better than anyone in your "Significant Case" group.
   225. Bleed the Freak Posted: January 01, 2013 at 01:33 PM (#4335893)
Freehan and Hack are on the borderline...they were removed due to emphasis of DRA defense.
Torre is close, but has always been shy, as I might give him less of a catcher boost than others - he played a fair deal of 1B and 3B.
Rixey is close, is excellent in Joe D's PA and Fangraphs WAR, but absymal in the other war systems. - does include WWI credit.
   226. Bleed the Freak Posted: January 02, 2013 at 08:09 AM (#4336682)
DL, do you have a PHOM not HOM that you can share?

Thanks
   227. DL from MN Posted: January 02, 2013 at 11:29 AM (#4336788)
My PHoM/HoM is mostly that I am not as excited about CF as the collective vote and believe we're short on pitchers

PHoM (in ranked order)
Curt Schilling, Tommy Bridges, Urban Shocker, Bus Clarkson, Phil Rizzuto, Gavy Cravath, Luis Tiant, Bob Johnson, Ben Taylor, Norm Cash, Dick Redding, Tommy Leach, Jim McCormick, Virgil Trucks (my one mistake)

not PHoM (in reverse order)
Rollie Fingers, Bob Lemon, Pete Browning, Willard Brown, George Sisler, Nellie Fox, Edd Roush, Bill Terry, Ralph Kiner, Andre Dawson, Jim Wynn, Edgar Martinez, Earl Averill, Craig Biggio

Edgar and Earl are on the borderline but will need a few dry spell seasons to make it. They're both ranked around even with Norm Cash and Dick Redding. Biggio will get in soon but I like Schilling more.

Never fully worked them up but put them in for now: Lip Pike, Joe McGinnity

If I ever get finished with ranking all the pre-1890 players I may open up 2 spots if I decide I don't like Pike or McGinnity as much as someone else from that timeframe (Mullane or Ned Williamson). Both were elected before I started voting so I grandfathered them in.

Borderliners:

Bert Campaneris, Tony Mullane, Bucky Walters, Dave Bancroft, Hilton Smith, Johnny Pesky, Wally Schang, Sammy Sosa, Don Newcombe, Dave Concepcion, Babe Adams, Dizzy Dean

All these guys are ranked higher than players in the PHoM/HoM but those players all got their shot at induction ahead of these guys. The exception is Mullane who I forgot was blacklisted. Those are the guys fighting with Averill and Martinez for my next open slot. I really think you have to run your PHoM in real-time. Standards have crept up over the years.
   228. DL from MN Posted: January 02, 2013 at 02:19 PM (#4336996)
You can kind of line them up

Like: Bridges, Shocker
Dislike: Fingers, Lemon

Like: Bob Johnson, Cravath, Taylor, Cash
Dislike: Averill, Kiner, Sisler, Terry

Like: Tiant, Redding, McCormick, Trucks (pitchers)
Dislike: Wynn, Roush, Browning, Dawson (outfielders)

Like: Rizzuto
Dislike: Fox

Sorta like but was first in line: Leach
Sorta like but came later: Martinez

Like: Schilling
Like, but not as much: Biggio

I definitely think the HoM is short on pitchers if we're truly trying to be fair to all positions. Next year's ballot will lead with six pitchers in my top 8 slots.
   229. DL from MN Posted: January 02, 2013 at 02:54 PM (#4337048)
Left one out

Like: Bus Clarkson
Dislike: Willard Brown
   230. DL from MN Posted: January 03, 2013 at 11:34 AM (#4337862)
Where are we getting the Win Shares and W3 lists? I want to put that together for next year's thread.
   231. OCF Posted: January 03, 2013 at 12:41 PM (#4337927)
Look here to see what Dan G has posted.
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