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Hall of Merit
— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best

Monday, December 19, 2016

2018 Hall of Merit Ballot Discussion

Vladimir Guerrero (267), Sammy Sosa (255), Luis Tiant (189), Jeff Kent (179), Vic Willis (161), Kenny Lofton (151), Bobby Bonds (133), Ben Taylor (130), Buddy Bell (130) and Tommy Bridges (106) will be the top 10 returnees for 2018.

Jorge Posada (95), Bob Johnson (86), Urban Shocker (80), Dick Redding (79), Phil Rizzuto (79), Wally Schang (79) and Sal Bando (68) rounded out the top 20.

2018 - (December 4 - December 18, 2017) - elect 4

Name               HOFm HOFs Yrs WAR  WAR7 JAWS
Chipper Jones       180  70   19 85.0 46.6 65.8
Jim Thome           156  57   22 72.9 41.5 57.2
Scott Rolen          99  40   17 70.0 43.5 56.8
Andruw Jones        109  34   17 62.8 46.4 54.6
Johan Santana        82  35   12 51.4 44.8 48.1
Johnny Damon         90  45   18 56.0 32.8 44.4
Jamie Moyer          56  39   25 50.4 33.2 41.8
Carlos Zambrano      30  23   12 44.6 39.0 41.8
Omar Vizquel        120  42   24 45.3 26.6 36.0
Chris Carpenter      70  26   15 34.5 29.6 32.0
Livan Hernandez      41  16   17 31.1 27.8 29.4
Orlando Hudson       20  18   11 30.9 27.2 29.1
Kevin Millwood       34  20   16 29.4 24.8 27.1
Kerry Wood           24  14   14 27.7 25.0 26.4
Carlos Lee           78  35   14 28.2 23.4 25.8
Ben Sheets           19  11   10 23.4 22.3 22.8
Jack Wilson          12  16   12 23.5 20.9 22.2
Hideki Matsui        36  21   10 21.3 21.2 21.3
Aubrey Huff          30  20   13 20.2 22.5 21.3
Adam Kennedy         12  16   14 21.0 20.4 20.7
Jeff Suppan          11   9   17 17.4 18.3 17.8
Carl Pavano          16   6   14 16.9 18.5 17.7
Francisco Cordero    77   9   14 17.2 14.6 15.9
Miguel Batista       10   3   18 12.7 15.9 14.3
Jason Isringhausen   71   7   16 13.2 12.2 12.7
Brian Fuentes        48   9   12 10.7 11.3 11.0
Brad Lidge           48  10   11  8.2 12.4 10.3
Scott Podsednik      15  15   11  6.9  7.8  7.4
Guillermo Mota       13   7   14  6.3  7.6  7.0
JoeD has the Imperial March Stuck in His Head Posted: December 19, 2016 at 09:12 PM | 222 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   101. Howie Menckel Posted: January 20, 2017 at 08:20 PM (#5387088)
bump
   102. Chris Fluit Posted: January 20, 2017 at 10:05 PM (#5387126)
I'd be interested in hearing some of the electorates' thoughts on Closers/Relief Aces. I see Fingers, Gossage, Wilhelm, and Eckersley got in and I would expect Rivera will get in once eligible. My interest is in guys like Sutter and Lee Smith from the older mold of closers and Billy Wagner and Hoffman in the more modern role. I know WAR doesn't rate these guys highly (at least compared to other positions). Are other voters making adjustments to bump these guys up? Or are you assuming WAR has it roughly right and that closers aren't as valuable as the casual fan assumes? To answer my own question, I do think that the position as used today is overvalued and that relief Aces of the 60s 70s and early 80s were more valuable as their managers used them. That said, I also feel that the modern closer role is part of our game and probably not going away (though Andrew Miller showed in a big way what a relief Ace used in big spots regardless of inning can do for a team). If that's true, Rivera followed by Hoffman and Wagner are the obvious cream of the crop from the last 25 years.

It's the Hall of Merit, so there are many disparate opinions on this. I'm sure that many voters are content to say that WAR gets it right and virtually no closer is deserving. On the other hand, other voters may look at additional stats to see what they have to tell us about the relative value of closers. Some might consider WAR per IP (or WAR per 100 IP), recognizing that relievers' workloads are intentionally restricted compared to starters. Others might look at Leverage Index. I like to check in with WPA. It's not the only stat I consider but it shows that a reliever's impact on an individual season can be as great as that of a starter- though the variance in WPA means that it's very difficult for a career reliever to match a career starter. As you noted, some people are voting for Hoffman and Wagner. You would be well within your rights to vote for Sutter or Smith if you thought they were among the best 15 players not in the HoM. Personally, I think that John Hiller is the best reliever that we haven't elected (as you said, the '70s firemen had a much bigger workload that the modern closer) and that Dan Quisenberry is as every bit as good as Sutter. That's part of the problem with the relievers. There are so many of them and they're bunched so closely together that it's hard to know where to draw the line unless that line is so high that only an elite few can get over it.
   103. Howie Menckel Posted: January 20, 2017 at 10:19 PM (#5387133)

good post, Chris.
and I am not a WAR guy.
   104. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: January 21, 2017 at 12:52 AM (#5387152)
This voter uses a WAR/WPA hybrid that helps RP and cuts down SP innings to make old timers compare with recent pitchers, and despite that and much thought, I am left with these conclusions:
1) Relief pitching is incredibly valuable for a team but relief pitchers are almost never valuable enough for the HOM.
2) The vast majority of RPs are former starters who were demoted to the pen whether at the Big league level, the minors, or in college, and who didn't have the stamina, durability, efficiency, or focus to start...which necessarily makes them less valuable to their organizations.
3) The only two relievers I support for the HOM or Hall are Mariano and Goose.
4) Eckersley was not elected by us as a RP so much as a hybrid; and he would never have been elected as a RP given only his stats in relief. His starting career was not enough to make it alone either, but the larger portion of his value comes from it.
5) Fingers was a huge mistake.
6) Wilhelm is IMO a mistake.
7) Hoffman is merely the best of the rest and not a reasonable candidate because he is far closer to Quiz/Wagner/Hiller than to Goose or Mo. With Tiant, Shocker, Willis, and others still out there, it seems strange to toss a vote at him.
8) Mariano is by far the greatest RP ever without any doubt. He is much much much further ahead of other RPs than W Johnson, Babe Ruth, Mike Schmidt, or Hans Wagner are of other players at their positions. Even still, Rivera would be lucky to be in the top half of HOM pitchers by my reckoning. An analogy would be that Honolulu is by far the biggest US city located on an island.
9) Not falling for the saves and gaudy ERA*+es trap is one way that we differentiate ourselves from the BBWAA as a more informed, thoughtful, and effective electorate.

Anyway, everyone's mileage will differ, but unless all one uses is WPA (which seems insupportable to my mind), one gets all glassy-eyed about saves like the BBWAA does, one chooses to ignore how high the ERA+ requirements are for closers, or one ignores facts such as a pitcher making a long career out of a throwing the same dang pitch all the time and never seeing a hitter twice in one night, there's Very few convincing arguments for any but the very cream of the reliever crop.
   105. GregD Posted: January 21, 2017 at 10:49 AM (#5387194)
An analogy would be that Honolulu is by far the biggest US city located on an island.
Not a good analogy though as San Juan is bigger than Honolulu. As of course are the island parts of New York City
   106. Bleed the Freak Posted: January 21, 2017 at 01:44 PM (#5387298)
5) Fingers was a huge mistake.
6) Wilhelm is IMO a mistake.


Where do you slot these guys...by Fingers being a huge mistake, he rests outside your top 110/115 or more pitchers?
Is Wilhelm top 100? Hoyt is pretty solid, besides FIP WAR, interested in where you place him.
   107. Bleed the Freak Posted: January 21, 2017 at 01:47 PM (#5387300)
PersonallyI think that John Hiller is the best reliever that we haven't elected 


Hiller is impressive in baseball-reference, and solid in baseball gauge, he's completely off the map with FIP WAR, Baseball Prospectus DRA, and Kiko's Win-Loss records...he does well with Joe D's PA, no other pitcher is as polarizing of a case.
   108. Bleed the Freak Posted: January 21, 2017 at 02:48 PM (#5387329)
This prompts a question I had. I haven't gone through and done a careful count, but I'd guess that maybe 25-30% of the players in my pHOM are not in the HOM and vice-versa. I suspect this is more than for most people, but maybe not: everybody has their pet candidates and the quirks of their systems. Bleed identifies a few clear trades I would make here: I'd put Murphy ahead of Gwynn (I realize my Gwynn ranking opens me up to the classic "Any system that thinks Tony Gwynn isn't a Hall-of-Famer must be flawed" argument; let's set that aside for now). I'd put Hershiser and/or Gooden in ahead of Stieb.

In my most recent analysis, Dale Murphy comes out ahead of Andruw Jones, by a small but significant margin, which puts Murphy among the 10-15 candidates fighting for the last 2-3 down-ballot slots and leaves Jones just below that range. Jones would probably be in my pHOM and, if the real Hall of Merit matched my pHOM, so that guys like John, Stephens, Dean, Gooden, Hershiser, ..., and Murphy were already in the HOM, Jones would almost certainly rise up to at least make my ballot (but not pHOM this year as he's 5th among newcomers - very strong debut class).

Am I being "fair" to "all eras"? Specifically, am I being fair to the most recent era in general and Andruw Jones in particular - if I put Dale Murphy on my ballot instead of Jones? Murphy's already had 15-20 chances at HOM election. Indian Bob Johnson's had, what, 50 or 60 such chances (Indian Bob's just below Andruw for me, but close enough that PCL credit - or a tweak to my WWII/pre-integration adjustments - could push Johnson ahead of him)?

Or would it be more fair to say, "You know what, Tony Gwynn took Dale Murphy's spot, and Earl Averill took Indian Bob's spot, and that can't be undone. So let's give that ballot slot to Andruw Jones." Not to the point of saying, "I won't vote for anybody who played before 1980; everybody before then has had enough chances." I'm going to keep voting for Tommy John and probably Vern Stephens and probably even Wally Schang. But for two guys who are reasonably close - where "reasonably close" is, of course, left as a subjective exercise of the reader - is it more "fair" to go w/ the more recent player? I kind of think it is.


I need to put the finishing touches on my PHOM, but I show 29 to 30 players HOM not personal, or just above 10%, 25 to 30% is substantial.

Out: Ezra Sutton, Jake Beckley, Bob Caruthers, Nellie Fox, Richie Ashburn, Edd Roush, Sam Thompson, Eppa Rixey, Bid McPhee, Stan Hack, Dave Stieb, Cool Papa Bell, Dobie Moore, Joe Sewell, Earl Averill, Mordecai Brown, Roger Bresnahan, Ralph Kiner, Pete Browning, Cupid Childs, Willard Brown, Clark Griffith, Will Clark, Bill Freehan, Rollie Fingers, Rick Reuschel, Bill Terry, Joe Medwick.

In: Bobby Veach, Urban Shocker, Art Fletcher, Bert Campaneris, Don Newcombe, Bob Johnson, George Uhle, Thurman Munson, Doc Gooden, Joe Tinker, Harry Hooper, Tommy Bond, Wally Schang, Hilton Smith, Sam Rice, Eddie Cicotte, Luke Easter, Bobby Bonds, Luis Tiant, Tommy Leach, Babe Adams, Johnny Pesky, Phil Rizzuto, Vern Stephens, Orel Hershiser, Dizzy Dean, Dave Bancroft, Jim Kaat, Dale Murphy.

Waiting for your full analysis on Kiki Cuyler, he could be swapped in for Dave Bancroft.

Regarding Gwynn, he needs the RE24 contextual hitting and post-season excellence to remain in my HOF, Baseball Gauge also seems him as borderline in a neutral context, so you aren't off the reservation in my mind with Tony.

Dan R was a Gooden proponent, and Dr. C CHEWS show Hershiser as worthy. Stieb depends on your flavor of choice, he looks great by baseball reference and baseball gauge, but he is quote short by FIP WAR, B-P, and your W-L totals.

When you are splitting hairs, I would consider:
1. Era representation
2. Position representation
3. Timeframe of excellence
Weight these however you like, but Johan Santana is one for me that is in a group but checks boxes 2 and 3 (maybe 1), so he deserves a ballot spot. Doc Gooden hits all 3.

It's against the HOM constitution for strategic voting, so if a player clearly slips through the cracks that you like (John, Stephens, and Schang), then I agree that you want to continue voting for them.
   109. Kiko Sakata Posted: January 21, 2017 at 04:18 PM (#5387370)
I need to put the finishing touches on my PHOM, but I show 29 to 30 players HOM not personal, or just above 10%, 25 to 30% is substantial.


I tried to go through and at least get an approximation for the players for whom I have a pretty solid record in my system and 25-30% was an exaggeration - and a pretty big one. By my count, there are around 150 players whose HOM case is entirely covered by seasons for which I have at least some Retrosheet play-by-play data (I count 148, although there are a few players where it's not clear if they don't pop up in my rankings because of missing data or because my system just doesn't like them). Doing a strict - here's my rankings, take the top 150 - I'd replace 27 players, but that includes Charlie Keller, Enos Slaughter, and Minnie Minoso, all of whom are close enough in my numbers that War and Negro League credit would probably put all three in my pHOM - which gets you to something closer to 15% HOM-not-pHOM and even there, the vast majority of such players are close enough that I could either make a statistical case for them or they could have made it if I went back and did the year-by-year election system that the HOM actually used.

I only count 9 players in the HOM, whose careers were primarily or exclusively 1930, non-NgL who would show up as egregious "mistakes" in my system (I'm not crazy about the word "mistakes"; it's not like y'all inducted Casey Blake or Mario Mendoza).

Dave Stieb is the only starting pitcher I can't really make a case for. This is in part because my pHOM would probably include at least 12-15 more starting pitchers than the HOM.

To segue into another current conversation, I would currently have no relievers in my pHOM (Eckersley and Smoltz are both in it, however, and, as with Dr. C., Eckersley needs his reliever years to make it). Mariano Rivera will make my pHOM and almost certainly be very high on my ballot when he becomes eligible. To some extent, Mariano's the problem for all other relievers. If you give relief pitchers enough of a boost to get Gossage - who's probably the #2 all-time reliever in my system - up to HOM-quality, you end up w/ Mariano as one of the top 10-20 players in major-league history, which I can't buy. Incidentally, my system sees Trevor Hoffman as pretty close to Gossage in value and HOM-worthy if you take the position of "relief pitcher is a position; the top 3-5 of them should be in the HOM".

Position players who are clearly below pHOM level for me, then, are Keith Hernandez, Ken Boyer, Ralph Kiner, Richie Ashburn, Earl Averill, and Tony Gwynn. As I said, if I put together a formal pHOM it might replace another dozen or so HOMers and this doesn't include 19th-C, Deadball Era, or Negro League players, or any borderline players whose case requires at least part of the 1920's. Top 9 guys my system would replace them with (if one populated one's pHOM all at once) would be John, Stephens, Posada (*), Hershiser, Gooden, Dizzy Dean, Jeff Kent (*), Gil Hodges, and Toby Harrah. The asterisked guys are recent enough that they clearly wouldn't replace any of those guys if I populated my pHOM year by year and would most likely still be on the outside waiting their turn to get inducted. The next two guys, then, on my pHOM-not-HOM list to replace Kent and Posada would be Jim Kaat and Dale Murphy. This paragraph is based entirely on my Player won-lost records, so doesn't consider guys like Vic Willis, Wally Schang, Ben Taylor, or Cannonball Dick Redding (who, if they made my pHOM would most likely, in theory, replace current HOMers who also pre-date my system).
   110. Bleed the Freak Posted: January 21, 2017 at 05:27 PM (#5387394)
Position players who are clearly below pHOM level for me, then, are Keith Hernandez, Ken Boyer, Ralph Kiner, Richie Ashburn, Earl Averill, and Tony Gwynn. As I said, if I put together a formal pHOM it might replace another dozen or so HOMers and this doesn't include 19th-C, Deadball Era, or Negro League players, or any borderline players whose case requires at least part of the 1920's. Top 9 guys my system would replace them with (if one populated one's pHOM all at once) would be John, Stephens, Posada (*), Hershiser, Gooden, Dizzy Dean, Jeff Kent (*), Gil Hodges, and Toby Harrah. The asterisked guys are recent enough that they clearly wouldn't replace any of those guys if I populated my pHOM year by year and would most likely still be on the outside waiting their turn to get inducted. The next two guys, then, on my pHOM-not-HOM list to replace Kent and Posada would be Jim Kaat and Dale Murphy. This paragraph is based entirely on my Player won-lost records, so doesn't consider guys like Vic Willis, Wally Schang, Ben Taylor, or Cannonball Dick Redding (who, if they made my pHOM would most likely, in theory, replace current HOMers who also pre-date my system).


My interpretation of your system yields:
Clear Nos - to Hernandez, Kiner (to a lesser extent with some war credit), Ashburn, and Gwynn.
Bubble/Worthy - Ken Boyer with some Korean credit and extrapolating Earl Averill's missing seasons and some PCL credit.

For Boyer and Averill, did you factor in the war, missing years, and or PCL stuff?
   111. Kiko Sakata Posted: January 21, 2017 at 05:30 PM (#5387395)
Bubble/Worthy - Ken Boyer with some Korean credit and extrapolating Earl Averill's missing seasons and some PCL credit.

For Boyer and Averill, did you factor in the war, missing years, and or PCL stuff?


No. I didn't realize Boyer was a candidate for extra credit. I think I knew that Averill was, but didn't do so myself. I will say that my system prefers Indian Bob Johnson, who I believe ALSO would deserve minor-league credit, quite a bit more than Averill. Between that and my system preferring pitchers more than the current composition of the HOM, I'd be surprised if I went back to the elections where Averill was a candidate, if I'd have been inclined to ever have supported him. But, fair enough on the need to include potential extra credit.
   112. Bleed the Freak Posted: January 21, 2017 at 06:13 PM (#5387415)
Agreed, Bob Johnson is a preferred candidate, with Averill at least interesting with PCL credit :)
   113. Michael J. Binkley's anxiety closet Posted: January 22, 2017 at 12:41 AM (#5387536)
This year I'm doing a major overhaul to my system, embracing my inner-peakiness moving from a WAR-based system to a WAA-based one, using a combination of bWAA and gWAA, with the DRA component slightly regressed, and also averaging in FIP WAA for pitchers. I adjust for standard deviation (Thanks again, Eric) and median positional adjustment (yields results similar to DanR's replacement level calculations). To these WAA values I add a peak rate number. Asked on a players best 3 seasons. Finally I add a WPA-based adjustment for post-season performance.

I haven't completely reformatted my PHoM yet, but wrt relievers, the only pure relievers I have in my PHoM right now are Wilhelm and Gossage. Hoyt is slightly ahead of Goose, with both of them most likely in the bottom quartile of my PHoM. Gossage would be right at my projected borderline if not for his postseason bonus. Eckersley and Smoltz are also both in, Eckersley needing both his starting and relief years to get in and Smoltz would be in even if he never relieved. Mariano, primarily because he has the biggest postseason bonus of anyone in my system (literally more than twice that of the 2nd highest - Babe Ruth), he ends up just a little outside of my projected inner-circle line (I'll have approximately 60ish players in my IC), just below Blyleven.

Fingers is close, but clearly out. He'd be behind Wagner if not for his postseason numbers (and Wagner obviously gets no postseason credit). Hoffman and Lee Smith are a little behind Wagner, but none of them are anywhere close to induction.
   114. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: January 22, 2017 at 09:14 AM (#5387569)
Yes, I've got Fingers well outside my top 100-115. My figures aren't in front of me, but Wilhelm is probably between 100-130. Also, I use FIP WAR. For all the reasons other have stated, I find it unhelpful for the sort of enterprise we are engaged in. If I wanted to know whether signing Ricky Nolasco was a good idea then I would consult it.

Greg, thanks for the correction on my hastily drawn analogy about the island cities. Let me rephrase. If Hoffman in this scenario is Honolulu then Rivera and Gossage represent Manhattan and San Juan in whichever order is apt.

And so I very closely concur with Kiko's position about Rivera and Gossage. Again Rivera dwarfs all other RPs, Gossage is the only other that gets over the line, and everyone else also ran. IMO, electing Hoffman, Wagner, Smith, Sutter, Hiller, Quiz, or eventually Pap (unless he goes on a Rivera tear), Nathan, or K-Rod or any of them would be a massive error. I don't generally make the following kind of general, argumentative statement about anyone's balloting and I don't mean it pejoratively, but I believe that tossing votes at the level of pitcher we are talking about is robbing a more deserving candidate in one's rankings of a vote. But that is only my position, and I am not only sharing it in hopes of avoiding the same mistakes the HoF makes.

Because relief pitching is incredibly valuable but relief pitchers are not.
   115. Carl Goetz Posted: January 22, 2017 at 06:31 PM (#5387904)
Thanks for all the responses (and more are still welcome). I tend to like the way WAR incorporates leverage in valuing relievers as compared to the WS reliance on Saves to calculate Save Equivalent Innings (I'm assuming the Win Shares book is still an accurate summary of the methodology; if not true, please educate me). I feel James method is a bit arbitrary even if the results correspond better with my gut feelings about reliever value. My current feeling is that WS overvalues relievers and WAR undervalues them. If the 2 measurements were on the same scale, I'd be inclined to average them for relievers. As it is, I'm inclined to use WPA in conjunction with WAR for relievers (as Chris Fluit suggested). I don't think I'd straight average the 2; maybe use WAR as base level in give bonus points for the high WPA guys (or deduct for the bad WPA guys). I'll keep thinking about relievers and start my catchup work on some of the other positions.
   116. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: January 22, 2017 at 09:34 PM (#5388044)
It's great to use WAR and WPA together. But just remember that WAR already has an adjustment for leverage. So to some degree, if you're using them together, you're multiply the weight of those innings by more than the leverage would suggest alone. As a practical matter, I strip out the leverage adjustment in WAR before I combine it with WPA. That way I'm getting WAR to account for performance vs league and WPA (which does not, IIRC, makes no accounting for anything but the game state) to deal with the leverage.
   117. DL from MN Posted: January 23, 2017 at 11:39 AM (#5388350)
Wilhelm is probably between 100-130. Also, I use FIP WAR.


You know FIP doesn't work for knuckleballers worth a damn, right?
   118. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: January 23, 2017 at 02:22 PM (#5388572)
Should have said "don't use" FIP WAR. Not a fan.
   119. DL from MN Posted: January 23, 2017 at 03:44 PM (#5388677)
Hoyt Wilhelm is around 50 bWAR and 27 bWAA which is plenty to get him into my PHoM. He got a late start to his career due to WWII service (missed 3 years) which means he has a (weak) argument for some minor league credit. He likely would have provided value to a big league team in the bullpen in 1950 and 1951.
   120. TomH Posted: January 23, 2017 at 10:57 PM (#5388841)
Adjusted Pitching Runs leaders, live ball thru 1990:

Lefty Grove
Tom Seaver
Carl Hubbell
Warren Spahn
Bob Gibson
Jim Palmer
Whitey Ford
Bert Blyleven
Bob Feller
Hal Newhouser
Gaylord Perry
Ted Lyons / Hoyt Wilhelm

Yes, relievers are different. Adjust the mean, but add some leverage. How can Wilhelm not be one of the best 50 pitchers in MLB history. Sure, Mariano was better.
   121. Carl Goetz Posted: January 24, 2017 at 09:25 AM (#5388913)
Initial hitters list. Some caveats:
A: Only hitters (I hope to have time to go through the pitching backlog sometime in the next couple weeks, but both weekends are crock full of plans so who knows. I assume 3-5 pitchers will make make final ballot so don't assume top 15 are on my final ballot.
B: Haven't looked at guys like Ben Taylor and Bus Clarkson yet.
C: Planning a summer project where I pick my own all-league teams as well as MVP and Cy Young for all historical leagues. A guy winning more slots on these teams could flip some of the closer picks here.

I use Baseball Gauge custom with Baseruns for offensive WAR and DRA as defensive WAR up through 2002 and DRS from 2003 on. (Note, I'll be using the average of runs based and FIP based WAR for pitchers when I do them). I look at productive career (career minus negative WAR seasons at start and finish of career), prime (best 8 consecutive years), and peak (best 3 years not necessarily consecutive).

1) Buddy Bell: Best Prime 8 and peak of infielders and only Thome put up more career value.
2) Tommy Leach: Best Prime, Peak and career of Outfielders (categorized him there even though he did play 3B). These first 2 are definitely ones I'm interested in feedback on since I'm higher on them than 2017 voters were.
3) Scott Rolen: Wasn't expecting to like him better than Chipper, but slight advantage in Prime/Peak and slight disadvantage in career. Prime/peak wins that tie for me.
4) Chipper: See Rolen.
5) Jim Thome: Slots in very similarly to Rolen and Chipper in my mind.
6) Andruw Jones: Using raw WAR right now though I did penalize him down from #3 for the questions around defensive numbers. I will pay attention to this debate though. I see him as a no-brainer if the WAR numbers are correct but still probably borderline if they are reduced somewhat. He did win 10 gold gloves plus is probably the greatest CF I saw play (I didn't pay close enough attention to Devon White as a kid, so I can't make that judgement) so I can't see a ridiculous penalty, but I am open to being convinced.
7) Thurman Munson: Best catcher available and I am convinced we need 1-2 more.
8) Roy White: Right up there with the top outfielders in prime peak and career. Was surprised to have this high. Am open to criticism.
9 & 10) Dave Bancroft and Bert Campaneris: Best 2 SS on my board. Very similar peak and career, but Bancroft has a slightly better prime 8, but that may be a function of career shape. Bancroft is 9 for now, but I can be convinced on Campy.
11) Frank Chance: Best backlog 1B. Better peak and prime than Thome (and a lot of other guys) but his career value is too far below to put him that high.
12) Bobby Bonds: Averaged over 5.5 WAR in his 8 year prime and put up competitive peak and career value as well.
13-15) Johnny Evers, Ron Cey, and Jeff Kent: 2 2B and a 3B all very similar in each of peak, prime and career. I lean towards all being on the in side of the line, but when adding pitchers, all look to be on the outside of my 2018 ballot. Feedback definitely welcome here.
16) Wally Schang: I have Tenace ahead of him in raw WAR, but I feel Gino has a durability advantage in playing alot of 1B. If Tenace had played all catcher and put up the same WAR, he'd be right with Munson. As it is, I think Munson and Schang are the 2 backloggers most deserving of our attention.

Definitely looking for feedback. That's why I'm posting at this stage. Some of the guys just outside this list (in no particular order): Lazzeri, Rizzuto, Pesky, Bando, Sam Rice, Jose Cruz, Duffy, Sosa, Bob Johnson, Tenace, Posada.
   122. DL from MN Posted: January 24, 2017 at 09:59 AM (#5388932)
Carl Goetz - Your top 4 players are 3rd basemen and I think you have them in the wrong order. I would definitely order them Chipper Jones, Scott Rolen, Tommy Leach and Buddy Bell. I can't fathom how any measurement system would have Buddy Bell (3654 total bases, 836 walks) with more career value than Chipper Jones (4755 total bases, 1512 walks). Did you miss some seasons?
   123. Carl Goetz Posted: January 24, 2017 at 10:28 AM (#5388948)
DL don't think I missed any seasons, but I'll doublecheck the spreadsheet when I get home. That said, there's no question Chipper has more offensive value than Bell, but Bell comes out way ahead defensively (so does Rolen for that matter) by DRA. I list Leach more in OF (1079 vs 955 games at 3B), but your central point is taken. I think its somewhat of a coincidence that I'm coming back this year. If I came back last year, it would have been the Leach and Bell in 2 of the top 3 slots and I'm guessing Pudge in the top slot (though I haven't examined Pudge closely since he's already in). That wouldn't look quite as 3B heavy. I'm just coming back with a high opinion on 2 backlog 3B in a year when 2 obvious Hall of Merit 3B are joining the ballot. These 4 (if we count Leach at 3B) plus the currently not-yet-eligible Adrian Beltre constitute 5 3B who I think have done enough to merit inclusion in the HoM but are not already in. Ron Cey is the only other 3B I would currently consider on the "in" side of the line (and I'm by no means certain on him). Also, 3B is the lightest position as far as HoM representation is concerned. Assuming the Thome, Sosa, and Vlad all get elected in the next few years, we could elect 4 3B and still have 3B behind SS, CF, LF, and RF as well as tied with 1B and 1 ahead of 2B. That doesn't seem like an unreasonable balance to me.
   124. Carl Goetz Posted: January 24, 2017 at 10:38 AM (#5388953)
Actually, my scenario would have 3B tied with 2B as well as 1B and that's if Kent doesn't get in during the near future. Also, while I am defending my rankings here, I certainly can be convinced otherwise. Defensively, I love DRS from Baseball Info Solutions and am absolutely using it for all years starting 2003 (as well as buying every Fielding Bible they'll sell me). Prior to that, I'm a big fan of the methodology used by DRA and feel from my personal look into the topic that its the best we have from older seasons with less info available. That said, if someone has a strong opinion favoring TZ (or something else) over DRA, I'd definitely be interested in hearing the pros/cons.
   125. Bleed the Freak Posted: January 24, 2017 at 11:19 AM (#5388967)
122. DL from MN Posted: January 24, 2017 at 09:59 AM (#5388932)
Carl Goetz - Your top 4 players are 3rd basemen and I think you have them in the wrong order. I would definitely order them Chipper Jones, Scott Rolen, Tommy Leach and Buddy Bell. I can't fathom how any measurement system would have Buddy Bell (3654 total bases, 836 walks) with more career value than Chipper Jones (4755 total bases, 1512 walks). Did you miss some seasons?


Chipper's defense is woeful by DRA, my interpretation of Baseball Gauge slots them:
Tommy Leach 101, Buddy Bell 124, Scott Rolen 130, Chipper Jones 165.

Carl, I will try to weigh in with intelligent thoughts later today/this week.
Dr. Chaleeko uses DRA as part of his rankings and has a handful of adjustments to improve the data:
Fenway Park LF, Outfielder Throwing Arm Value (Roy White is hurt A LOT in this area), Polo Grounds 1B, etc.
   126. Carl Goetz Posted: January 24, 2017 at 12:11 PM (#5389013)
Thanks Bleed the Freak. Definitely interested in hearing what adjustments others are making as well as the reasoning behind them.
   127. Carl Goetz Posted: January 24, 2017 at 01:53 PM (#5389115)
Wow, just went through Tom Thress' (Kiko Sakata?) website on player won-loss records. Very interesting. Not sure I understand eWins and eLosses methodology, but definitely interested in using pWins-pLosses as a substitute for WPA. To my knowledge, WPA awards all events to 100% batter on offense and 100% pitcher on defense. I like that pWins-pLosses attempt to distribute to the baserunners and fielders as well. Would pWORL be the appropriate stat to compare with WPA?
   128. Kiko Sakata Posted: January 24, 2017 at 05:22 PM (#5389326)
Wow, just went through Tom Thress' (Kiko Sakata?) website on player won-loss records. Very interesting.


Thanks. And yes, I'm Tom Thress. WPA is centered on average, so technically, I believe it would be comparable to pWOPA (pWins over positional average). pWORL is relative to replacement level.
   129. Chris Fluit Posted: January 29, 2017 at 01:34 PM (#5391945)
Quick Question: Johnny Damon is nowhere close to getting elected- but if he was going to be enshrined, what cap would he wear?
   130. Kiko Sakata Posted: January 29, 2017 at 08:28 PM (#5392102)
Quick Question: Johnny Damon is nowhere close to getting elected- but if he was going to be enshrined, what cap would he wear?


He looks by my system to have been most valuable for the Yankees, although he's probably somewhere in the 130-150 range among eligible players on this year's ballot for me.
   131. Bleed the Freak Posted: February 01, 2017 at 10:35 AM (#5393908)
Carl, regarding post 121, I have estimated rankings for the guys you have on ballot, plus I added some honorable mentions that are in my personal hall of fame from the off ballot crowd you mentioned. The rating system weights by peak/prime/career are about equivalent to what Kiko had in his key stat from 2016, numbers will need adjusted if you are a high peak or high career voter.

Systems shown are Baseball Gauge, Baseball Reference, and Tom Thress. I also utilize Dan Rosenheck when data is available, his analysis has helped convinced me on a yes to Bert Campaneris and a no to Sal Bando, for example.

I would also suggest incorporating RE24/contextual hitting value into your rankings if you get a chance. Chipper, Munson, Campaneris, and Bonds were outstanding in this regard. Rolen, Cey, White, Kent, and Sosa were good. Others were neutral.

I also check Baseball Gauge WPA added metric for post-season value as a tiebreaker or a minor positive for those who excelled. Munson was quite good here. When Andy Pettitte hits the ballot, you have a guy with a year + worth of post-season league average pitching...for a non-clear cut candidate, that value has to hold at some level.

Please note, in the off-ballot crowd, Sam Rice is a particularly unique guy, long-career without peak seasons, but adjusting the metrics for his arm value makes him an impressive prime guy, along with WWI and or MLE credit, his career started late...what are the electorates thoughts on Sam, any MLE credit (looks like he may have just got started much later than typical)?

And Carl, if you are a Rice supporter, Harry Hooper is a more impressive version of this type of candidate, at least to me and the good doc.

Players: Buddy Bell, Tommy Leach, Scott Rolen, Chipper Jones, Jim Thome, Andruw Jones, Thurman Munson, Roy White, Dave Bancroft, Bert Campaneris, Frank Chance, Bobby Bonds, Johnny Evers, Ron Cey, Jeff Kent, Wally Schang, Phil Rizzuto/Johnny Pesky (WWII credit cases), Sam Rice, Sammy Sosa, Bob Johnson

FL BG BR TT
BB 124 111 408
TL 101 300
SR 130 104 154
CJ 165 65 50
JT 135 125 73
AJ 75 110 147
TM 89 126 250
RW 79 197 353
DB 158 214
BC 171 238 177
FC 191 249
BB 108 154 232
JE 243 292
RC 164 204 227
JK 196 209 127
WS 176 260
PR 170 190 247
JP 197 232 147
SR 104 237
SS 160 131 185
BJ 129 157 160
   132. Howie Menckel Posted: February 01, 2017 at 12:08 PM (#5394025)
Sam Rice's tragic turn

Rice got married in 1908 at age 18. In April 2012, Rice was at a baseball tryout:

"While Rice was away in Galesburg, his wife and children moved in with his parents on the family farm in Donovan. On Sunday, April 21, as Rice took to the mound in Galesburg, his family took to the road to visit friends in his wife's hometown of Iroquois. Shortly after the family returned from their outing that evening, a violent tornado ripped through Donovan. The high winds destroyed the Rice farmhouse and killed Rice's wife, both of his children, his mother, and his youngest two sisters.

"According to a report published in the Kentland Democrat a few days later, "... the house, with contents, and everything else on the premises ... was seized, torn, and whirled into fragments and strewn entirely across the farm. ... [family members'] ... bodies were found ... 150 [to] 400 yards south of where the house was ... all nearly entirely naked, the clothing having been whipped into shreds and torn away by the wind." His father survived the storm, but was seriously injured. "When neighbors came upon the scene, they found Mr. Rice running distractedly about among his dead dear ones in the ravine, and carrying in his arms one of the children that yet showed evidence of life, but died a few moments later."

Rice's father was dead, too, before the month was over.

"Rice reportedly spent the rest of 1912 wandering across the Midwest, taking on a series of labor-intensive jobs. [20] His wandering ceased on January 24, 1913, however, when he enlisted in the Navy. [21] He was assigned to the USS New Hampshire, a battleship in the Atlantic fleet that was docked in Norfolk, Virginia, as a "coal passer", a rank equivalent to Fireman 3rd class."

then it gets complicated.....
   133. Bleed the Freak Posted: February 01, 2017 at 12:40 PM (#5394053)
Thanks for sharing Howie, it had been awhile since I had read the bio.
   134. Howie Menckel Posted: February 01, 2017 at 01:44 PM (#5394088)
for those too numbed by the excerpt, still worth a read. a lot of really good stuff happened for Rice in the aftermath, well beyond baseball.

one interesting aspect is that reporters - with one brief exception - never wrote about the tragedy during his career, upon his HOF election, nor even in the wake of his death....
   135. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: February 01, 2017 at 08:31 PM (#5394349)
I have become a Sam Rice fan in the past month or so. I did a little research now that his baserunning value ages 39-43 is available. When you look at things like SBATT v league, SB% v league, and extra bases taken on someone else's hits v league, his performance at this advanced age is very impressive. I compared it to other late-career players who performed similarly. He maps onto guys like Ichiro, Barry, Jeter, Molitor, and others whose overall average career rBaser in Rice's PA is about 55-65 runs, and BBREF gives him 13 career.

Now run the same kind of comparisons with lefty hitters only, and you can guesstimate his rDP, which comes out around 25 or more runs, but which BBREF currently has no estimate for.

And when I ran my Hooper arm estimates, I also looked at Rice. In some ways Rice'a arm could be seen as better, though I rated it about 70% of Hooper due to Hoop's amazing reputation. I figured it's probably another 25 runs for Rice above his DRA rating (which counts as about 15-18 for me since I use DRA at ⅔ strength).

So what I'm saying is that Rice potentially has like 80-90 runs that BBREF isn't able to account for. He is the Ichiro of his time, building value with low-power offensive performance, strong baserunning, DP avoidance, and excellent defense, especiallly the arm. That took him from a close also-ran to about 14-17 in my RF ranks. If you simply halve my estimates, I still have him over the line. So far he's the only guy who benefits to this degree from unaccounted runs. I can't run this kind of analysis on Hooper yet because we don't have much detail on his baserunning.

The website where my CP Bell article appeared will have a complete write up either this week or next. If no one objects, I will post the link. Again, I don't want to do so and have it be inappropriate. (To which end, I wrote this post off the top of my head, so when the article appears, trust it over this post if there's any discrepancies.)
   136. OCF Posted: February 01, 2017 at 09:00 PM (#5394365)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/April_20–22,_1912_tornado_outbreak

That tornado is clearly indicated and estimated as being of F4 strength; indeed, when I read the description above, I was thinking that it had to have been that high on the Fujita scale to do that.
   137. Bleed the Freak Posted: February 01, 2017 at 09:26 PM (#5394374)
135. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: February 01, 2017 at 08:31 PM (#5394349)
I have become a Sam Rice fan in the past month or so. I did a little research now that his baserunning value ages 39-43 is available. When you look at things like SBATT v league, SB% v league, and extra bases taken on someone else's hits v league, his performance at this advanced age is very impressive. I compared it to other late-career players who performed similarly. He maps onto guys like Ichiro, Barry, Jeter, Molitor, and others whose overall average career rBaser in Rice's PA is about 55-65 runs, and BBREF gives him 13 career.

Now run the same kind of comparisons with lefty hitters only, and you can guesstimate his rDP, which comes out around 25 or more runs, but which BBREF currently has no estimate for.

And when I ran my Hooper arm estimates, I also looked at Rice. In some ways Rice'a arm could be seen as better, though I rated it about 70% of Hooper due to Hoop's amazing reputation. I figured it's probably another 25 runs for Rice above his DRA rating (which counts as about 15-18 for me since I use DRA at ⅔ strength).

So what I'm saying is that Rice potentially has like 80-90 runs that BBREF isn't able to account for. He is the Ichiro of his time, building value with low-power offensive performance, strong baserunning, DP avoidance, and excellent defense, especiallly the arm. That took him from a close also-ran to about 14-17 in my RF ranks. If you simply halve my estimates, I still have him over the line. So far he's the only guy who benefits to this degree from unaccounted runs. I can't run this kind of analysis on Hooper yet because we don't have much detail on his baserunning.

The website where my CP Bell article appeared will have a complete write up either this week or next. If no one objects, I will post the link. Again, I don't want to do so and have it be inappropriate. (To which end, I wrote this post off the top of my head, so when the article appears, trust it over this post if there's any discrepancies.)


Great stuff doc, please share here and in the Sam Rice thread, looking forward to your article!
   138. Carl Goetz Posted: February 14, 2017 at 12:09 PM (#5401261)
Reply to Bleed the Freak Post #131
Sorry for the delay, I've been focusing my baseball efforts on an NFBC slow draft and reading the BP Annual and I haven't logged in here in a couple weeks. Been looking at RE/24 and just want to make sure I understand how to read it. Does this have similar issues to WPA where you are punishing players who don't come up in "big" spots?
   139. Carl Goetz Posted: February 14, 2017 at 12:28 PM (#5401286)
So, if reading this correctly for Chipper Jones and Buddy Bell (career numbers) on Fangraphs.

Buddy Bell wRAA 127.3 RE24 128.44
Chipper Jones WRAA 598.0 RE24 707.41

Both metrics are based on Runs above average with wRAA being context neutral and RE24 being context dependent.

If my above statements are correct, the conclusions I would draw from the above are:
1) Buddy Bell was roughly as "clutch" as the average player over the course of his career as his context neutral Runs above average were basically the same as those driven by context.
2) Chipper Jones added an estimate of 109 runs over the course of his career based on the timing of his batting events.

Is this a reasonable way to read the data?
   140. Bleed the Freak Posted: February 15, 2017 at 08:29 AM (#5402000)
Carl, I believe your logic is correct.
   141. Carl Goetz Posted: February 15, 2017 at 10:51 AM (#5402084)
Would it also be correct to say that the only baserunning credit in RE24 would be SB/CS? I assume batter gets credit for 1B-3B on a single type baserunning events, but not certain. I'm also assuming that Pitcher takes all the credit for defensive events, but also not certain.
   142. Jaack Posted: February 15, 2017 at 11:15 AM (#5402113)
You are correct on all accounts there.

It's also worth noting that fangraphs only has RE24 data going back to 1974.

In general, I find RE24 to be great for hitters, pretty good for relievers and not notably different from RA based systems for starting pitchers.
   143. Carl Goetz Posted: February 23, 2017 at 10:40 AM (#5407272)
I will confess that I am not a huge fan of rewarding so called clutch performance. I believe a lot of that is just random statistical variation. That said, if there appears to be a statistically significant effect over a player's career, I can't ignore the possibility that its a skill. Obviously, Buddy Bell show no significant 'clutch effect' over his career. Question: Is Chipper's 109 runs over a 19-year career (approx 5.75 per year) significant? I lean towards yes since using RE24 amounts to an 18% increase over Chipper's WRAA.

I also need to give Chipper extra credit for his 93 postseason games at .409 OBP and .456 SLG, but I still need to decide on the "how".
   144. Bleed the Freak Posted: February 25, 2017 at 05:39 PM (#5408780)
Carl, you mentioned that you would give Willie Davis another look, as a Baseball Gauge/DRA fan. I wanted to share how the top guys come out in my interpretation of the DRA rankings. Keep in mind that I manually adjust players to incorporate arm value for outfielders, using R-OF from Baseball Reference in the post 1950 period, then estimates based upon outfielder assists in the earlier eras. Values are for a context neutral setting. I adjusted for season length and a bit for strength of league (though this is pretty small, 1950s NL gets a bump, expansion weakened years get a demerit).

Position Players: Bobby Veach 61, Art Fletcher 68, Joe Tinker 69, Andruw Jones 75, Roy White 79, Thurman Munson 89, Harry Hooper 100, Tommy Leach 101, Sam Rice 104 (war credit, could also deserve MLE credit?), Bobby Bonds 108, Buddy Bell 124, Bob Johnson 129 (year of MLE credit), Lance Parrish 133, Gil Hodges 139, Willie Davis (small Japan credit) 141, George Burns (SF) 144, Tony Perez 156, Dave Bancroft 158, Sammy Sosa 160, Ron Cey 164, George Foster 166, Phil Rizzuto 168 (war credit/malaria bump), Kiki Cuyler (dash of MLE credit) 169, Bert Campaneris 171, Jose Cruz 172, Ken Williams (MLE credit) 175, Albert Belle 176, Wally Schang 177, Kenny Lofton 178.

Pitchers: Urban Shocker 42 (war credit), Luis Tiant (smidge MLE credit) 43, Eddie Cicotte 49, Johan Santana 53, Don Newcombe (integration and war credit) 54, Kevin Appier 58, George Uhle 61, Dizzy Dean (small MLE credit) 64, Tommy Bond 65? - adjusting for 19th century pitchers is anyone's best guess, Vic Willis 71, Frank Viola 72, Wilbur Wood 77, Charlie Buffinton 78, Tommy Bridges 79, Dolf Luque (MLE credit) 80, Jim Kaat 81.
   145. Carl Goetz Posted: February 26, 2017 at 12:53 PM (#5408950)
Bleed the Freak, I have a couple follow up questions.
1) What is R-OF and where do I find it? Is it the same as Rfield for OFs?
2) I'm assuming the numbers you list are overall ranking among pitchers or position players by your system, but not certain.
   146. Bleed the Freak Posted: February 26, 2017 at 07:27 PM (#5409106)
Hello Carl, regarding #1, Doc mentions this in his comment for Willie Davis, R-of is a value from baseball-reference for outfield arm rating. For #2, yes my overall rating by Baseball Gauge WAR with personal peak/prime/career evaluation.
   147. Kiko Sakata Posted: March 18, 2017 at 06:34 PM (#5419357)
I have couple of questions about Seamheads' Negro League data if anybody here might know the answers.

1. In their database, they show "Similarity Scores" for Negro Leaguers that gives a set of comps from the white (and/or integrated) major leagues. For example, Ben Taylor's "most similar" is George Sisler.

Do these sims adjust for league quality? That is, Taylor and Sisler are roughly contemporaries (Taylor was born 5 years earlier, according to Seamheads). Is this saying that, if the Detroit Tigers had signed Ben Taylor to play 1B, we would have expected Taylor and Sisler to put up similar numbers over their careers? Or, is this saying that Taylor put up similar numbers, in his league (which was surely of lower quality than the white AL, right?), to what Sisler put up in his (stronger) league? If the latter, what's the right adjustment factor to convert Taylor's numbers into AL-equivalencies?

2. What's the correct way to evaluate career lengths when comparing Negro Leaguers to "white" major leaguers?

For example, Seamheads shows Dick Redding pitching 19 seasons, but only throwing 2,165 innings. His #2 sim is Bob Gibson, who pitched 17 seasons, but threw 3,884 innings. Is it more correct to say that Redding's career was similar in length to Gibson (19 yrs vs. 17 yrs) or significantly shorter than Gibson's (Gibson threw 80% more innings)?

Thanks!
   148. KJOK Posted: March 19, 2017 at 02:28 AM (#5419473)

Do these sims adjust for league quality


No - that is a possible future enhancement
Or, is this saying that Taylor put up similar numbers, in his league (which was surely of lower quality than the white AL, right?), to what Sisler put up in his (stronger) league?

Correct, that is what it tells currently.

If the latter, what's the right adjustment factor to convert Taylor's numbers into AL-equivalencies?

It varies by season - hopefully that will be answered in the future enhancement.

2. What's the correct way to evaluate career lengths when comparing Negro Leaguers to "white" major leaguers?

For example, Seamheads shows Dick Redding pitching 19 seasons, but only throwing 2,165 innings. His #2 sim is Bob Gibson, who pitched 17 seasons, but threw 3,884 innings. Is it more correct to say that Redding's career was similar in length to Gibson (19 yrs vs. 17 yrs) or significantly shorter than Gibson's (Gibson threw 80% more innings)?


The comps are all based on converting career numbers into seasonal comparisons, precisely because data for complete Negro League seasons tends to be much more scarce than for MLB seasons.
   149. Kiko Sakata Posted: March 19, 2017 at 01:57 PM (#5419551)
Thank you very much, KJOK!
   150. Bleed the Freak Posted: March 26, 2017 at 12:32 PM (#5423793)
87. Kiko Sakata Posted: January 12, 2017 at 10:14 PM (#5382753)

Okay, I've finished refining the weights I'm using to rank my players (for now), so I'm going to throw up four posts that will probably be kind of long.

I'll open w/ my weights. To review, I use my own statistic, Player won-lost records.

I calculate Player won-lost records two ways. pWins tie to team wins and are context-dependent. eWins are tied to expected context. This will be my third year voting in a HOM election. For my first two ballots, I weighted pWins and eWins equally. This year (for now), I've decided to go (1/3) pWins, (2/3) eWins. I think there's information to be had in looking at things in context when evaluating the past, but I found myself looking at a lot of rankings and thinking "I think that guy might be overrated by pWins because he had the benefit of playing on good teams".


Kiko, have you decided to stay with a 1/3 pWin, 2/3 eWin weighting?
I'm planning to rehaul my spreadsheet of your data to reflect this approach.
   151. Kiko Sakata Posted: March 26, 2017 at 02:50 PM (#5423827)
Kiko, have you decided to stay with a 1/3 pWin, 2/3 eWin weighting?
I'm planning to rehaul my spreadsheet of your data to reflect this approach.


Yes.

I think the pWins are really interesting - in large part, they're the most interesting part of the system. But in working through preliminary ballots, I tended to find myself with a lot of comments along the line of "He looks better in pWins, which could be overrating him for having good teammates". I also found myself assuming that was an issue for some guys that my system was "finding" - e.g., Gil Hodges, who played for very good teams, of course, and does look better in pWins than eWins, but only a bit so, so that even more heavily weighting eWins, he still pops up as a guy who looks worthy of consideration in my system (Dizzy Dean also comes to mind in this vein).

Another issue is players who pre-date my system. For the most part, historical data (including WAR and its ilk) are more comparable to eWins than pWins. So, more heavily weighting eWins hopefully lets me make somewhat cleaner comparisons to other sources. And along these same lines, it's also a bit of a nod to consensus, since, for the most part, sabermetric orthodoxy says we should look at context-neutral numbers.

But others can feel free to take a different approach. One can build one's own weighted system for my data here using whatever weights one would like. [note: I'm not sure if the article explaining weighting choices is 100% up-to-date. In particular, I can't remember if I added a discussion of what I call Wins over Star (or WO*). I set replacement level one standard deviation below positional average; star level is set one standard deviation above average. I think I've discussed the idea in this thread (page 1): for something like a Hall of Merit, people may want to look at a higher standard of comparison than even average to give more credit to guys who were really good and great versus guys who were merely above average for a really long time (e.g., Sandy Koufax vs. Tommy John).]

Bleed, I also saw your comment in the Sam Rice thread. I'll try to answer it this weekend or early in the week and will probably do so here, since it's more general than specifically about Rice.
   152. Bleed the Freak Posted: March 26, 2017 at 05:20 PM (#5423908)
Another issue is players who pre-date my system. For the most part, historical data (including WAR and its ilk) are more comparable to eWins than pWins. So, more heavily weighting eWins hopefully lets me make somewhat cleaner comparisons to other sources. And along these same lines, it's also a bit of a nod to consensus, since, for the most part, sabermetric orthodoxy says we should look at context-neutral numbers.


Thanks for the fast response, I will update to a 1/3 and 2/3 split also when time allows. I personally like your weighting prior to the Wins Over Star, but this does great if we are underrating peak type candidates (I support Johan Santana and Dizzy Dean now with my slightly peakier/prime emphasis).

Should we use context-neutral values? I appreciate your team wins, context makes a difference in winning games.
Do we use your team pWins as the starting point?

Do we also incorporate metrics like RE24 instead of context neutral runs (data complete 1974 to present)?, or the clutch stat at Baseball-Reference or Fangraphs.
Frontlogger Sammy Sosa is at 381 RE24 contextual runs and 345 wRAA neutral runs at Fangraphs, 385 RE24 and 372 RAA.
However, Sosa scores an appalling -17.0 clutch score, with negative scores in each year of his prime.
Is one more useful than the other, should a blended approach be taken?

Also, I have found the following thread very intriguing:
Players don't play in neutral parks, should an adjustment be made for this?
rrOPS+ - neutralizing hitting performance for home and road player values

This significantly damages Jorge Posada's case, showing a neutral 121 OPS+ to 108. If we want to take just a half adjustment, then ~114.5 OPS+ is the new figure
An Excel file in the link requires being a member, but I can share with those interested in the WAR adjusted figures.

10 Biggest winners in total WAR gained in the HOM and top 10 other eligible HOM candidates:
CRipken 14.7, JDiMaggio 8.5, BTerry 8.1, CGehringer 7.2, GSisler 6.9, MPiazza 6.5, GGoslin 6.4, EMathews 6.2, MRamirez 6.1.

JKuhel 12.0, AJones 6.2, RColavito 2.5, RStaub 2.5, KGibson 2.1, GHodges 2.1, JGonzalez 1.9, BoBonds 1.9, TLazzeri 1.8.

Guys losing at least 5 WAR, HOM and non-HOM:
WBoggs -16.0, TSpeaker -11.9, RSanto -11.8, HGreenberg -9.6, RSandberg -9.3, CYaz -8.5, EBanks -8.2, EAverill -7.8, JFoxx -7.7
LWalker -7.7, FThomas -7.5, KGriffey -7.0, GNettles -7.0, FRobinson -6.9, BaBonds -6.3, MMantle -5.7, RKiner -5.6,

JPosada -12.5, CKlein -10.0, KPuckett -9.9, GCravath -6.9, FLynn -6.2, MTettleton -6.0,
CJones -5.6, KWilliams -5.4, DStrawberry -5.4, BJohnson -5.3, DMurphy -5.2, JRice -5.0.

Other notables: Todd Helton -5.4, Joe Medwick -4.9, Bobby Abreu -3.8, Tony Gwynn -3.3, Sam Rice -2.1, Sammy Sosa -2.0.
   153. Bleed the Freak Posted: March 26, 2017 at 05:37 PM (#5423915)
Reposting from the Sam Rice thread, and is Lonny Frey now the best player without a discussion thread?

43. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: March 24, 2017 at 07:48 PM (#5423365)

Hi, everyone,

There are two more articles pertaining to "missing" 1930-1940s value that we posted over at our site. I thought you might find them helpful because they explain how I was looking at Sam Rice and also point to a few other important names and what value they might be missing. I hope this is helpful, though I do want to be really clear that these are not meant to be definitive. If you enjoy, thanks for reading. If you don't...thanks for reading. ;)

Method. https://homemlb.wordpress.com/2017/03/20/guesstimating-secondary-value-for-the-1930s-and-1940s/
Other players. https://homemlb.wordpress.com/2017/03/22/giving-1930s-and-1940s-players-back-their-missing-value-mojo/


44. Bleed the Freak Posted: March 26, 2017 at 01:58 PM (#5423812)

Thanks for sharing Doc, I was already a fan of Sam Rice, but this continues to push his case.

Significant findings for guys I have ranked in the bottom 1/3 of HOM or top 1/3 outside HOM, with OLD versus NEW CHEWS, and OLD versus NEW ranks:

NOTE: Baseball Gauge and Baseball Reference are reflected in Doc CHEWS rankings, so I have many references to Kiko's Win-Loss records as another important take to consider for each guy:

Catchers
46/40/16/24 - Ernie Lombardi - I had mentally noted his likely deficiencies in this area, this confirms my subjective judgments. FWIW, I ran a study of runs scored versus offensive value and plate appearances, Ernie faired about as poorly as anyone.

First Base
53/56/16/14 - Bill Terry - Kiko, where do you stand on Terry - my reading of your system shows him well short? Michael Humphrey's noted that Terry is credited with too many defensive runs from the Polo Grounds.
43/46/27/25 - Dolph Camilli - #17 on Kiko's prelim ballot, post 88 in the 2018 discussion thread. this excludes MLE credit, how much is he worthy of? Jaack has a prelim at ~#19.
43/43/28/28 - Gil Hodges - #11 on Kiko's prelim, are we slighting the 1950s guys due to lower standard deviations/tough leagues?

Second Base
49/48/17/18 - Billy Herman - I had him comfortably worthy, but he's slipping a bit here. Deserves a bit of WWII credit.
47/47/19/19 - Bobby Doerr - glad he's now a Miller and Eric electee, Kiko's system backs this with a thumbs up.
43/40/24/27 - Tony Lazzeri - a guy I see support for on occasion depending on level of MLE credit, this keeps him below my threshold.

The big find!?
38/42/27/26 - Lonny Frey - whoa, add 2 seasons from the war following an impressive 5 year prime from 1939-1943, solid in 1946 at age 35 and nothing after.
Frey doesn't look to have any serious injuries suffered in WWII like Phil Rizzuto and malaria.
The 1940s are not overrepresented, Frey is pretty interesting.
Kiko, where does Lonny make out with you, like Bill Terry, the data isn't complete, but enough to share your thoughts.

Lonny Frey SABR bio

Private Frey spent two years stationed at Fort Riley, Kansas, where he batted .450 as his Fort Riley Centaurs took the Western Victory League championship. However, when he returned to Cincinnati at the age of thirty-four in 1946, something was missing. “I just didn’t have it anymore. Two years in the service and you lose it. … I was just too old, I guess,” he said


Third Base:
42/43/19/20 - Bob Elliott - holds his interesting but not quite enough status.
41/45/23/19 - Stan Hack - Kiko, Hack looks impressive from what I can tell from your W-L, is this too much credit for the war years?

Shortstop:
48/52/21/19 - Joe Sewell - information too sparse for Kiko W-L records? I had moved him out of my PHOM, but looks like that may have been a mistake? I have a number of 1920s guys (Dave Bancroft, Burleigh Grimes, others) that are really close to the line.
42/42/27/27 - Vern Stephens - #4 on Kiko's prelim ballot.
37/38/38/37 - Phil Rizzuto - this excludes WWII credit, and Doc, where do Rizzuto and Johnny Pesky fall for you after WWII/malaria/MLE credit?

Left Field:
50/49/20/20 - Bob Johnson - at this level or better from what I can read in Kiko's system + some PCL credit gets him a spot in my PHOM.
47/45/23/25 - Joe Medwick - was at the bubble, this docking and WWII reduction moves him further out.
46/45/25/26 - Ralph Kiner - a bit of Korea credit, but shows poorly in Kiko's, a tad short for me, although the 1950s are sparsely populated.
46/46/26/23 - Minnie Minoso - I give significant Negro/integration and have him safely clearing the bar.

Center Field:
43/45/26/23 - Wally Berger - well short in Kiko's, deserving of MLE credit + CHEWS makes him intriguing.
43/44/29/26 - Larry Doby - Negro/integration credit moves him safely in.
40/41/36/33 - Earl Averill - he's short due to no PCL credit yet and DRAs assessment of poor fielding, slightly below average in B-R and W-L puts him as a bubble or worthy guy after PCL value; the literature of the time was a fan of Averill's defense if that holds a bit of value.

Right Field:
44/46/27/27 - Bill Nicholson - intriguing CHEWS, does awful in Win-Loss records; 2 of 3 best seasons during WWII.
43/44/30/28 - Kiki Cuyler - VERY interested in the final figures, a case for MLE credit and insubordination of manager, looks good from the available W-L data.
41/42/35/32 - Chuck Klein - remains close but shy.
40/41/37/34 - Tommy Holmes - HOF level with Baseball Gauge, WAY short in Win-Loss records - your thoughts Kiko? Deserves some if not a significant amount of MLE value.
   154. Kiko Sakata Posted: March 28, 2017 at 10:25 PM (#5425066)
Skimming through the players in Bleed's #153, with the caveat that I'm missing games for virtually all of these players and entire seasons for some of them. A few thoughts.

C - Ernie Lombardi: if I extrapolate missing games and neutralize context, I calculate his most similar players as Bill Freehan, Roy Campanella, and Darrell Porter, which is more impressive than it sounds, because (a) Lombardi's similar, but clearly worse, I think, than all three, and (b) Freehan wouldn't be in my pHOM (Campanella would; Porter's kind of on my borderline).

1B - Bill Terry: I'm missing three full seasons of Terry's career. If I extrapolate missing games and look only from age 31 (1930 for Terry) on, his most similar player is Jeff Bagwell, which, again, may not be as impressive as it sounds, because the majority of Jeff Bagwell's HOM case came in his 20's. Number 2 on his list of sims is Ellis Burks, which is much less impressive, of course (but Burks and Bagwell actually had very similar value in their 30's; Burks was a late bloomer). I don't have a good feel for whether I would have voted for Terry or not (he's already in the HOM, right?).

As Bleed notes, Gil Hodges is on my preliminary ballot and Dolph Camilli is just off it. I suspect Camilli will always stay just off my ballot, although, if I went back and populated a pHOM year by year, I wouldn't be surprised to see him having made it in at some point.

2B - What do I make of Lonny Frey? Hard to say. Very good peak/prime for the Reds from 1939 - 43. That seems a bit too short to really call it a "prime" and probably not good enough to really be a HOM-level "peak". He appears to be 187th on my 2018 HOM ballot before adding in guys who pre-date my system. So, probably outside my top 200? Extrapolating missing games and adjusting up to 162-game seasons, his most similars look to mostly fall short. Don't be confused by his #2 sim - Frankie Frisch; that's excluding six full seasons of Frisch's career. Which, conveniently enough, probably sums up Lonny Frey's HOM case: he's probably about a half-decade of prime-level performance short of my pHOM.

3B - I'm missing too many games of Stan Hack's career to be 100% certain, but I think he's a legit HOMer. Extrapolating missing games through age 32 (1942, so eliminate Hack's war years), his top 3 sims are HOMers (Reggie Smith, Gary Carter, Wade Boggs).

As for Bob Elliott, he's at #69 on my 2018 prelim ballot between Jack Clark and Jimmy Key. Good player, probably would have made the bottom of some of my ballots his first decade of eligibility, wouldn't be entirely out of place in the bottom tier of the HOM.

SS - Joe Sewell - yeah, I actually have surprisingly good coverage of him for the seasons I have, but I only have three seasons in the 1920s for the AL. So, I'd be loathe to try to say anything about him just yet.

As you say, I love Vern Stephens, am decidedly meh about Phil Rizzuto.

LF - I'm reasonably sure Bob Johnson would be in my pHOM if I went back and populated it by year. Medwick is currently below my borderline, but I'm missing enough data that I wouldn't want to speak too strongly on that. Ralph Kiner falls well short. Minoso is at least borderline on pure MLB numbers; bonus credit would push him over for me, too.

CF - Wally Berger falls into the Joe Medwick camp: I'm missing a little too much data on him to have a really strong feel, but probably short. My system is very fond of Larry Doby even before getting into extra credit. Averill strikes me a guy who's a clear tier below HOM, but I'm missing data and haven't given him any MLE bonuses.

RF - Nicholson's nothing special. Cuyler could be interesting. He has a case, but I'm missing some seasons and I suspect he's borderline depending on what you do with his 1927 season (similar rates as surrounding seasons, but benched for half the season). Chuck Klein looks way better in eWins than pWins (he'd be an example of the flip side of what I was talking about earlier - he played on terrible teams, so his great hitting didn't lead to team wins far more often than not). Even in eWins, though, he seems to land at a tier just below HOM.

Finally, Tommy Holmes: my thoughts. Looking at my Player W-L records as well as his raw stats on Retrosheet, I suspect his early seasons were a product of the weakened NL due to WWII. Especially his power - it looks like a majority of his extra-base hits (of all 3 kinds) came during WWII. He also only played CF during the war and, post-war, he just didn't have enough power to be a particularly valuable corner outfielder.

From what I can tell, he doesn't pop up among the top 500 HOM candidates for me (which does surprise me a bit). That would require a hellacious amount of MLE credit to even make him interesting, much less ballot-worthy.
   155. Bleed the Freak Posted: April 01, 2017 at 06:44 PM (#5427229)
New article from doc's site:
https://homemlb.wordpress.com/2017/03/27/hidden-superstars-of-the-1910s-and-1920s/

Can you share further on your revised stance with Dave Bancroft, Art Fletcher, Heinie Groh, Wally Schang, and Bobby Veach.

Great news for Harry Hooper fans!
   156. Bleed the Freak Posted: April 01, 2017 at 07:53 PM (#5427267)
1B - Bill Terry: I'm missing three full seasons of Terry's career. If I extrapolate missing games and look only from age 31 (1930 for Terry) on, his most similar player is Jeff Bagwell, which, again, may not be as impressive as it sounds, because the majority of Jeff Bagwell's HOM case came in his 20's. Number 2 on his list of sims is Ellis Burks, which is much less impressive, of course (but Burks and Bagwell actually had very similar value in their 30's; Burks was a late bloomer). I don't have a good feel for whether I would have voted for Terry or not (he's already in the HOM, right?).


First off, thanks for the excellent recap from post 154.

Second, Terry is in the Hall of Merit, but he is a maligned selection, yet doc's research and what I posted in 152 suggest he might be shorted by 7-10 WAR...moving him off the bubble and ahead of the 1930s borderline glut guys unelected (Kiki Cuyler, Bob Johnson, and Dizzy Dean) in my ranks.

To all, Stan Hack moves back to bubble/in with doc's new info, Kiko's W-L shows him as worthy, but DRA defense is way down on him...unfortunately, Humphrey's didn't have any discussion on Hack in his book.

Looking forward to when more seasons are available for Joe Sewell, he was short of hall status but clears the bar with doc's new info. For me, Sewell moves ahead of the unelected (Dave Bancroft and Burleigh Grimes), is close with George Uhle, but is behind Urban Shocker and Sam Rice.

And I agree, Cuyler is under ballot consideration, but needs more data to feel that strongly about.
   157. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: April 02, 2017 at 12:53 PM (#5427457)
Before the estimations in the articles notes above, I had Terry in the bottom third or bottom quadrant of HoME 1Bs.

He and Sisler were near twins overall (not in career path), and they both sat just below Greenberg and also near Allen. I also have Eddie Murray who n that vicinity. The very bottom of 1B for me is like this:
McGwire (roughly my 20th 1B, counting Banks as a SS and Rose as a RF and Musial as a 1B.)
-----in/out-----
Beckley/W Clark/Olerud in a clump a hair's breadth below Mac.

Then a gap to Killebrew, then a clump with guy's like Chance, Camilli, Perez, etc.

Anyway, Terry would move up for to definitely being among the bottom third instead of definitely in the bottom quadrant, and maybe a little higher yet than that.
   158. Bleed the Freak Posted: April 04, 2017 at 05:10 PM (#5429002)
Kiko, can you repost the UltimateSplit article, maybe in your Hall of Merit slice:

http://baseball.tomthress.com/HallofMerit/

http://baseball.tomthress.com/Articles/UltimateSplit.php

Thanks!
   159. Kiko Sakata Posted: April 04, 2017 at 05:37 PM (#5429018)
I think you mean my "UltimateStat" article, which is still on the website (if you remember its name): http://baseball.tomthress.com/Articles/UltimateStat.php (otherwise, I'm not sure what article you're referring to; I have an archive of all of my old articles, and that's the only one with "Ultimate" in the name)
   160. Bleed the Freak Posted: April 04, 2017 at 06:10 PM (#5429029)
I think you mean my "UltimateStat" article, which is still on the website (if you remember its name): http://baseball.tomthress.com/Articles/UltimateStat.php (otherwise, I'm not sure what article you're referring to; I have an archive of all of my old articles, and that's the only one with "Ultimate" in the name)


The UltimateSplit is a link in the last paragraph from the eWORL vs WAR article about Adam Dunn and Mickey Rivers.
http://baseball.tomthress.com/Articles/UltimateSplit.php
Maybe the link just needs updated to UltimateStat?
   161. Kiko Sakata Posted: April 04, 2017 at 09:18 PM (#5429086)
Maybe the link just needs updated to UltimateStat?


Yes, it's directing to UltimateStat (the link in #159) - I just fixed it. These two articles reference each other: UltimateStat is kind of theoretical, looking at the team level, and then eWORL_v_WAR compares some players.
   162. Bleed the Freak Posted: April 05, 2017 at 08:08 PM (#5429749)
Thanks kiko.

I wanted to post to the negro leagues page, but commenting is closed.

Jim Albright started a great thread over at the fever:

http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?130322-HOF-cases-of-Negro-Leaguers-using-MLEs-of-ERA-and-OPS-from-Seamheads
   163. Kiko Sakata Posted: April 08, 2017 at 04:38 PM (#5431582)
Jim Albright started a great thread over at the fever:

http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?130322-HOF-cases-of-Negro-Leaguers-using-MLEs-of-ERA-and-OPS-from-Seamheads


Thanks for mentioning this, Bleed. That's a great, great thread! Everybody should read that.

Reading through Jim's evaluations of players, the ones who caught my eye who I don't think are in the Hall of Merit yet:

Hilton Smith - Albright finds him HOF-worthy and he seems to be the best remaining HOM candidate among Negro League pitchers?
Leon Day - Albright likes him quite a bit. His bat is a big selling point in his case.
Cannonball Dick Redding - he's the top HOM vote-getter in recent years among NgL pitchers, but Albright seems to prefer Smith and Day. He comps Redding to the Jack Morris level of very good for a decently long time, but not elite pitcher.
Ben Taylor - Taylor looks very good here
Grant Johnson - is he in the HOM? Given Albright's description of him, I'm a little surprised if not.
Rev Cannady - I had never heard of Rev Cannady
Tubby Scales - nor had I heard of Tubby Scales
Bus Clarkson - is he in the HOM?
Sol White - apparently there's a lot of missing data, but Albright calls his case "tantalizing"
Harley McNair - another one in the "I've never heard of that guy" bin
Ted Strong
Heavy Johnson - another one I've never heard of, Albright really likes him
Chino Smith - apparently he played a lot in a fairly weak Cuban league

Are any of those guys already in the HOM and/or does anybody have anything more to add on the cases of any of these guys? It seems very likely that there remain Negro Leaguers who the HOM electorate missed on for lack of data many years ago. And I think we (that's a bit of a "royal we" talking about myself) need to be careful not to take as our starting point the view that the Negro Leagues were sufficiently long enough ago that these players have all had their chances and were found lacking for legitimate reasons in the way that, say, an Indian Bob Johnson or a Tommy Bridges had their previous chances.
   164. Bleed the Freak Posted: April 08, 2017 at 07:24 PM (#5431623)
Thanks for mentioning this, Bleed. That's a great, great thread! Everybody should read that.

Reading through Jim's evaluations of players, the ones who caught my eye who I don't think are in the Hall of Merit yet:

Hilton Smith - Albright finds him HOF-worthy and he seems to be the best remaining HOM candidate among Negro League pitchers?
Leon Day - Albright likes him quite a bit. His bat is a big selling point in his case.
Cannonball Dick Redding - he's the top HOM vote-getter in recent years among NgL pitchers, but Albright seems to prefer Smith and Day. He comps Redding to the Jack Morris level of very good for a decently long time, but not elite pitcher.
Ben Taylor - Taylor looks very good here
Grant Johnson - is he in the HOM? Given Albright's description of him, I'm a little surprised if not.
Rev Cannady - I had never heard of Rev Cannady
Tubby Scales - nor had I heard of Tubby Scales
Bus Clarkson - is he in the HOM?
Sol White - apparently there's a lot of missing data, but Albright calls his case "tantalizing"
Harley McNair - another one in the "I've never heard of that guy" bin
Ted Strong
Heavy Johnson - another one I've never heard of, Albright really likes him
Chino Smith - apparently he played a lot in a fairly weak Cuban league

Are any of those guys already in the HOM and/or does anybody have anything more to add on the cases of any of these guys? It seems very likely that there remain Negro Leaguers who the HOM electorate missed on for lack of data many years ago. And I think we (that's a bit of a "royal we" talking about myself) need to be careful not to take as our starting point the view that the Negro Leagues were sufficiently long enough ago that these players have all had their chances and were found lacking for legitimate reasons in the way that, say, an Indian Bob Johnson or a Tommy Bridges had their previous chances.


Glad you found this helpful.

I've been on the Hilton Smith bandwagon, Alex King did MLEs a number of years ago that came to the conclusion that Hilton belongs.

Grant Johnson is given the moniker of "Home Run" and has been elected by the HOM, Bus Clarkson continues to draw votes in HOM elections.

The other name of note is Carlos Moran, he doesn't make Jim's list because of the large gap in Cuban vs Negro League results, what's the league quality gap between the two?

Hilton Smith, Leon Day, Ben Taylor, Grant Johnson, Bus Clarkson, and Heavy Johnson make Jim's single ballot hall of fame, similar in size to the HOM.
   165. Bleed the Freak Posted: April 08, 2017 at 07:46 PM (#5431635)
Inspired by a comment that Sammy Sosa was the worst "clutch" player of the PBP era (~1950 to present), I did an analysis from the advanced stats section of Baseball-Reference of the differences between Brun (Context Neutral) and RE24 (Context Dependent) run values, converted to wins (Bwin and REW), along with the "Clutch" figure. I took an average of the two metrics for all players with > 60 RE24 playing 1950s to present and anyone that made my selected sample of the top ~1000 or so players (using mix of Baseball-Reference and Baseball Gauge WAR).

Top 25 gainers:
Brun Clu Both
REW tch Avg Player
20.2 9.60 14.9 Pete Rose
15.4 12.9 14.2 Nellie Fox
17.8 7.40 12.6 Billy Williams
23.9 0.90 12.4 Luis Aparicio
15.7 7.80 11.8 Yogi Berra
14.4 7.30 10.8 Dave Parker 
15.3 5.40 10.4 Tim Raines
10.6 9.90 10.3 Tony Gwynn
20.2 0.10 10.2 Joe Morgan
14.0 6.10 10.1 Bert Campaneris
14.8 4.90 9.85 Ozzie Smith
14.9 4.30 9.60 Terry Pendleton
16.8 2.20 9.50 Jimmy Rollins 
14.1 4.40 9.23 Bobby Abreu 
12.1 6.20 9.16 Mark Grace 
11.7 6.40 9.05 Garry Templeton
10.3 7.80 9.05 Bill Buckner 
17.6 0.50 9.04 Vada Pinson 
9.40 8.40 8.90 Dick Groat
11.8 6.00 8.90 Frank McCormick 
10.6 7.00 8.79 Ted Simmons 
12.5 4.70 8.58 Tony Perez
11.8 5.00 8.40 Maury Wills
10.8 6.00 8.40 Dave Concepcion
11.1 5.60 8.35 Willie McCovey

Top 25 fallers (guys losing 4 wins of value:
Brun Clu Both
REW tch Avg Player
(6.5) (12.7) (9.6) Lance Parrish
(9.4) (9.7) (9.5) Chet Lemon 
(4.3) (10.1) (7.2) Jermaine Dye 
(4.7) (9.6) (7.2) Ivan Rodriguez
(4.7) (9.6) (7.2) Paul Konerko 
(2.6) (10.2) (6.4) Richard Hidalgo 
3.20 (15.9) (6.4) Frank Robinson
1.39 (13.4) (6.0) Jim Thome 
5.04 (17.0) (6.0) Sammy Sosa 
(2.4) (9.3) (5.9) Torii Hunter 
(1.7) (10.0) (5.8) Adrian Beltre 
(3.2) (8.3) (5.7) Jim Rice
(4.0) (6.5) (5.3) Bobby Grich 
(4.2) (6.3) (5.3) Robinson Cano 
(7.3) (3.1) (5.2) Rick Dempsey
(1.9) (8.1) (5.0) Mike Napoli 
(0.8) (9.2) (5.0) Joe Adcock 
(0.6) (9.2) (4.9) Frank Thomas
(5.9) (3.7) (4.8) Don Baylor 
(1.8) (7.2) (4.5) Benito Santiago
(1.7) (7.3) (4.5) Manny Ramirez 
(3.5) (4.9) (4.2) Albert Belle 
(2.3) (6.1) (4.2) Andre Thornton 
(5.3) (3.0) (4.2) Edgar Martinez 
(1.1) (7.1) (4.1) Mike Lowell 

Other notable candidates/electees:
Brun Clu Both
REW tch Avg Player
12.2 4.30 8.24 Willie Davis
11.7 4.50 8.11 Rickey Henderson
13.6 2.50 8.07 Johnny Damon
14.9 1.20 8.05 Jim Gilliam
9.31 6.40 7.86 Roberto Clemente
10.0 5.00 7.49 Rod Carew
11.8 2.60 7.19 Darrell Evans
10.4 3.40 6.88 Tommy Henrich
11.1 2.50 6.80 Joe DiMaggio
13.3 0.30 6.79 Carlos Beltran
9.30 4.10 6.70 Jason Kendall 
11.6 1.30 6.46 Augie Galan
13.2 (0.4) 6.39 Barry Larkin
16.5 (3.8) 6.36 Ryne Sandberg
6.88 5.70 6.29 Amos Otis 
14.9 (2.7) 6.09 Craig Biggio
7.97 4.20 6.09 Keith Hernandez 
9.10 3.00 6.05 Jose Cruz 
10.4 1.70 6.04 Kenny Lofton 
9.09 2.50 5.80 Minnie Minoso 
7.24 4.30 5.77 Lou Whitaker 
4.99 6.50 5.75 Eddie Murray
11.7 (0.3) 5.70 Mickey Mantle
7.00 4.20 5.60 Darrell Porter 
12.7 (1.6) 5.55 Willie Mays
5.67 5.20 5.44 Enos Slaughter
7.73 3.10 5.42 Jason Giambi 
12.2 (1.4) 5.39 Chase Utley 
4.46 5.90 5.18 Ichiro Suzuki 
11.5 (1.2) 5.13 Bobby Bonds 
8.47 1.60 5.04 Lance Berkman 
12.3 (2.4) 4.95 Todd Helton 
11.3 (1.4) 4.93 Derek Jeter 
5.62 4.00 4.81 Billy Herman
10.3 (1.0) 4.63 Ken Boyer 
6.29 2.90 4.60 Paul Molitor
4.37 4.80 4.59 Orlando Cepeda
2.87 6.10 4.49 George Brett
3.33 5.60 4.47 Roy White 
6.65 2.20 4.43 Rusty Staub 
7.28 1.40 4.34 Cesar Cedeno 
5.16 3.50 4.33 Will Clark 
8.65 (0.1) 4.28 Roberto Alomar
12.5 (4.0) 4.26 Duke Snider
11.0 (2.5) 4.23 Al Kaline
10.7 (2.4) 4.17 Carl Yastrzemski
2.90 5.40 4.15 Yadier Molina
6.20 2.10 4.15 Tony Fernandez 
4.73 3.50 4.12 Toby Harrah 
4.41 3.60 4.01 Kirby Puckett

Full list can be found: http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?129799-Best-Metrics-for-Measuring-Performance-Value&p=2634573#post2634573
   166. Kiko Sakata Posted: April 08, 2017 at 09:05 PM (#5431670)
Grant Johnson is given the moniker of "Home Run" and has been elected by the HOM


Thanks! It occurred to me that there was a Negro Leaguer w/ the nickname "Home Run" who might have been Home Run Johnson.
   167. Bleed the Freak Posted: April 08, 2017 at 09:52 PM (#5431675)
Regarding the contextual stats, I decided to add the difference in Kiko's P and E wins totals, I took the P (team wins) less E (individual wins) and have the following. Note Baseball Reference includes negative WAR seasons, they are excluded from Kiko's (some minor differences would result).

No correlation between them, Kiko is measuring things that Baseball-Reference isn't capturing in this view.

REW Clu Avg OPA ORL Name
20.2 9.60 14.9 5.00 3.80 Pete Rose
15.4 12.9 14.2 12.0 12.1 Nellie Fox
17.8 7.40 12.6 (5.5) (5.6) Billy Williams
23.9 0.90 12.4 5.40 5.10 Luis Aparicio
15.7 7.80 11.8 14.8 15.8 Yogi Berra
14.4 7.30 10.8 2.50 2.90 Dave Parker
15.3 5.40 10.4 (2.9) (2.9) Tim Raines
10.6 9.90 10.3 (1.8) (1.4) Tony Gwynn
20.2 0.10 10.2 5.70 6.00 Joe Morgan
14.0 6.10 10.1 1.00 1.00 Bert Campaneris
14.8 4.90 9.85 7.30 7.30 Ozzie Smith
14.9 4.30 9.60 6.20 6.70 Terry Pendleton
16.8 2.20 9.50 6.50 6.30 Jimmy Rollins
14.1 4.40 9.23 (0.8) (0.7) Bobby Abreu
12.1 6.20 9.16 (2.4) (2.5) Mark Grace
11.7 6.40 9.05 4.00 4.40 Garry Templeton
17.6 0.50 9.04 (0.7) (0.8) Vada Pinson
9.40 8.40 8.90 6.30 6.30 Dick Groat
11.8 6.00 8.90 5.50 6.50 Frank McCormick
10.6 7.00 8.79 0.70 1.70 Ted Simmons
12.5 4.70 8.58 4.40 5.10 Tony Perez
11.8 5.00 8.40 8.60 8.50 Maury Wills
10.8 6.00 8.40 6.90 6.60 Dave Concepcion
11.1 5.60 8.35 4.00 5.60 Willie McCovey

(6.5) (12.7) (9.6) (0.9) (0.3) Lance Parrish
(9.4) (9.70) (9.5) (2.4) (2.4) Chet Lemon
(4.3) (10.1) (7.2) (3.6) (3.3) Jermaine Dye
(4.7) (9.60) (7.2) (4.3) (4.3) Ivan Rodriguez
(4.7) (9.60) (7.2) (2.2) (1.5) Paul Konerko
3.20 (15.9) (6.4) (1.0) 0.10 Frank Robinson
1.39 (13.4) (6.0) (0.7) - Jim Thome
5.04 (17.0) (6.0) (7.1) (6.7) Sammy Sosa
(2.4) (9.30) (5.9) 1.40 2.50 Torii Hunter
(1.7) (10.0) (5.8) 2.40 3.00 Adrian Beltre
(3.2) (8.30) (5.7) 1.90 2.00 Jim Rice
(4.0) (6.50) (5.3) 0.80 1.00 Bobby Grich
(4.2) (6.30) (5.3) 5.50 5.40 Robinson Cano
(1.9) (8.10) (5.0) 1.20 1.30 Mike Napoli
(0.8) (9.20) (5.0) 0.70 1.60 Joe Adcock
(0.6) (9.20) (4.9) 0.10 0.60 Frank Thomas
(5.9) (3.70) (4.8) 0.20 1.20 Don Baylor
(1.8) (7.20) (4.5) (0.8) (0.3) Benito Santiago
(1.7) (7.30) (4.5) 2.80 3.80 Manny Ramirez
(3.5) (4.90) (4.2) (2.0) (1.6) Albert Belle
(2.3) (6.10) (4.2) (3.4) (2.9) Andre Thornton
(5.3) (3.00) (4.2) (0.5) (0.2) Edgar Martinez
(1.1) (7.10) (4.1) 0.70 1.10 Mike Lowell
   168. Rob_Wood Posted: April 11, 2017 at 12:53 PM (#5433030)
Could someone remind me how to post players and stats so the information is aligned like in a table? An example would be the information Joe provided on all the new eligibles at the top of this thread.

Are there special codes that have to be added?

Thanks much.
   169. DL from MN Posted: April 11, 2017 at 02:48 PM (#5433146)
Using the pre tag will keep things in preformatted fashion.
   170. Rob_Wood Posted: April 11, 2017 at 03:05 PM (#5433158)
Thanks DL. This is a test ... this is only a test ....
Joe Morgan     5.2
Pete Rose      4.3
Johnny Bench   3.0

That seems to work. (Thanks again.)
   171. Bleed the Freak Posted: April 12, 2017 at 08:04 PM (#5434116)
Doc, I'm also waiting in great anticipation for bullet point #3 on your list:
https://homemlb.wordpress.com/2017/04/12/erics-viewing-guide-to-the-2017-season/

Kiko, what was the latest update you did on your Win-Loss records website for new Retrosheet info?
Any particular years or players I should refresh my spreadsheets on for your data?
   172. Kiko Sakata Posted: April 13, 2017 at 10:12 PM (#5434902)
Kiko, what was the latest update you did on your Win-Loss records website for new Retrosheet info?
Any particular years or players I should refresh my spreadsheets on for your data?


The date at the top of this article should identify the last date I updated (unless I forget to update it). My last update was December 12th, which was tied to Retrosheet's Fall, 2016, release, which included 2016 (which doesn't matter for Hall-of-Merit voting yet, of course) and I think 1944. Their next release will probably be in late June and I'll hopefully have a new update by the end of July (I'll post something in this thread when it's complete). That will definitely include deduced games for 1943 and may include games for 1942 (sabermetric legend Dick Cramer recently retired and has started deducing games as one of his main retirement hobbies, so deductions are moving much quicker than they had been previously). I think there's also a chance that we get one or two all-new seasons (1928 and/or 1929 - probably only partial).
   173. Bleed the Freak Posted: April 14, 2017 at 10:15 AM (#5435068)
Thanks Kiko, you did announce these updates, just making sure the electorate didn't miss any new unveilings.

Exciting news for the upcoming seasons!

I have run the spreadsheet numbers to move players to 1/3 p and 2/3 e win values, I will try to have comments soon on the implications and whether there are some guys all of us could be overlooking.
   174. Bleed the Freak Posted: April 14, 2017 at 06:25 PM (#5435607)
Running Kiko's data through my personal rating structure, I get the following results (adding MLE and war credit to each candidate): Note these are unadjusted for position (besides Posada), I will touch on that in the next post.

1. Chipper 4898, 2. Thome 4613, 3. Stephens 4396, 4. Trout 4203, 5. Indian Bob 4071.

Note I took a 25% reduction to 1945, 20% to 1944, 15% to 1943, 5% to 1942.
For players pre-1946, values deduced from games available extrapolated for missing games:
Stephens has ~88% accounted for, Trout 74% (although 2 peak seasons fully accounted for), Indian Bob 81%.

6. Henrich 4026, 7. Cuyler 3986, 8. John 3985, 9. Klein 3962, 10. Posada 3925. Henrich 95%, Cuyler and Klein 64%.

For seasons unavailable by Retrosheet (Cuyler and Klein), estimates taken from actual figures from Baseball Gauge and Baseball Reference and relationship of those seasonal values compared against available seasons.
Posada given ~33% boost for catching.

11. Gooden 3853, 12. Pesky 3817, 13. Hershiser 3810, 14. Newcombe 3805, 15. Harder 3803. Pesky 94%, Harder 87%.

16. Passeau 3798, 17. Sosa 3795, 18. Harrah 3775, 19. Kent 3764, 20. Kaat 3760. Passeau 66%.

21. Hodges 3759, 22. L Jackson 3754, 23. Murphy 3742, 24. Andruw 3706, 25. Dean 3699. Dean 71%.

26. Clift 3694, 27. Santana 3676, 28. Campaneris 3671, 29. Colavito 3669, 30. Camilli 3668. Clift 55%, Camilli 81%.

31. Rolen 3645, 32. El Duque? 3640, 33. Sain 3635, 34. Burdette 3633, 35. Friend 3631.

36. Garcia 3627, 37. Hunter 3626, 38. Vlad 3614, 39. Concepcion 3613, 40. Rice 3587.

41. Bonds 3575, 42. Valenzuela 3560, 43. Schoolboy 3555, 44. Dom 3574, 45. Foster 3540. Rowe 72%, Dom 85%.

46. Perez 3534, 47. Appier 3533, 48. Wells 3504, 49. Tiant 3502, 50. Otis 3499

Top 40 returnees:
Walters 3462, Bando 3455, Lofton 3109, McGriff 3076, Munson 3044, Bridges 3028, Rizzuto 2939, Buddy 2390.


Wanted to get this posted, will share thoughts in the following post:
   175. Bleed the Freak Posted: April 14, 2017 at 11:28 PM (#5435764)
Side note:
Checking out Seamheads Negros database, Dolf Luque is listed with 21 WAR + MLB ~50 = ~70 WAR, with an all-time great 1923, an excellent 1925, and other all-star like campaigns.

To Kiko's review:
With the margins being thin, let's look at the standings in each decade.
Rank for each player in Parenthesis.

30s - Assuming that Ray Brown, Dihigo, Gibson, Paige, Suttles, and Wells are above the unelected:
Indian Bob (24), Klein (25), Harder (26), Dean (27), Camilli (30).

40s - Stephens (13), Trout (16th MLB, but behind Leonard, Trouppe, and Irvin to 19th?), giving the nod to Hilton Smith (20) and Luke Easter (21), we then have Henrich (23), Pesky (24), Passeau (25), Sain (26), Dom (27), Rowe (28).

50s - Newcombe (16), Hodges (17), Burdette (18), Garcia 3627 (19), Simmons 3364 (20), Rosen 3318 (22), Maglie?! (23), Furillo 3200 (24)

60s - Kaat (18), Jackson (19), Colavito (21), Friend (22), Osteen 3466 (25), McAuliffe 3319 (26), Pascual 3295 (27).

70s - John (15), Harrah (20), Campaneris (21), Hunter (24), Concepcion (25), Rice (26), Bonds (27), Foster (28), Perez (29), Tiant (30), Otis (31).

80s - Gooden (17), Hershiser (19), Murphy (20), Valenzuela (24), Strawberry 3481 (25), Canseco 3380 (26), Guidry 3379 (27).

90s - Sosa (21), El Duque?! (23), Appier (24), Wells (25), El Presidente 3377 (26), Belle 3266 (28).

00s - Chipper (6), Thome (10), Kent (20), Andruw (21), Santana (23), Rolen (24), Vlad (26), Giles 3381 (32).


Elected guys:
30s - Averill (28), Medwick (31), Terry (38), Cool Papa?
40s - Hack (22), Willard Brown?, Kiner (29).
50s - Pierce (15), Fox (21), Ashburn (way off).
60s - Koufax (16), Torre (17), Boyer (20), Wilhelm (23), Freehan (24).
70s - Da Evans (22), R Smith (23), Fingers (32), Reuschel (38).
   176. Bleed the Freak Posted: April 14, 2017 at 11:54 PM (#5435768)
00s - Posada (18)

Sorry, last post chopped off:

60s - Brooks (28).
70s - Nettles (44).
80s - Winfield (16), Dawson (18), Raines (21), Eckersley (22), Gossage (23), Stieb (30), Randolph (31), Gwynn (way off).
90s - Cone (20, I Rod?, Palmeiro (27), W Clark (33).
   177. Bleed the Freak Posted: April 15, 2017 at 04:30 PM (#5435946)
Thanks Doc for sharing your HoME Excel file:
https://homemlb.wordpress.com/home-honorees/

CHEWS values from your 2017 ballot: Bell (54.71), Tiant (49.00), Lofton (52.09), Veach (54.40), Willis (48.21), Shocker (47.69), Schang (46.95), Munson (45.81), Leach (52.26), Fletcher (55.49), Sosa (?), Bonds (50.31).

Others elected to Eric’s Hall but off ballot: Kevin Appier (64.00 – is this transposed, supposed to be 46?), Chuck Finley (54 – transposed to 45?), Joe Tinker (52.84), Orel Hershiser (51.00), Roy White (50.49), Bob Johnson (49.60), Willie Davis (49.15), Harry Hooper (49.11), Dave Bancroft (48.85), Jose Cruz (48.41), Sal Bando (46.62), Jeff Kent (46.48), Bucky Walters (43.38).

Per your ballot construction, do you make a subjective bump in CHEWS for catchers and pitchers in your rankings, anything else in particular?

Any chance you can share your full spreadsheet of potential candidates, either at the HOME honorees link or otherwise?
I would like to incorporating your findings as best I can...many thanks!
   178. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: April 15, 2017 at 09:33 PM (#5436053)
Bleed,

Funny you should ask about that because in Monday, I'm cutting over to a new sifting tool I'm oh so innovatively calling CHEWS+. An exhaustive, and hopefully not exhausting, article on this will appear Monday. The upshot is that I'm fusing some big ideas or features from three systems I've read about: JAWS, HOS' Hall Rating, and a tiny piece of an article on HBT about using pyramid calculations or something like. It was not about Madoff and the Wilpons....

You'll get the deets on Monday, but I'll be able to present more in depth info about the attributes of a player's case viz a biz DocWAR. As always 1'sMMV, but it's a framework more than an answer, peak friendlier than my current system, and more intuitive to look at...I think. As for the Fellows you mentioned above, yes those were typos. Thanks for catching them. The next installment of the HOMEstats doc (next Friday) will have CHEWS+ integrated.

I think in general that I've been high guy on Finley. Which I'm glad to be. I control for workload very strongly, which is designed to give guys like Finley and Appier or Johan the chance to stand more on the basis of per inning performance against some of the endurance candidates whose lesser performance is offset by bulk. I mostly take it out of a pitcher's rRep not their RAA, conserving their performance against average as much as possible. For more on the WHY of this, we ran an article mentioned up thread about Sandy vs Santana that sheds light on the why OF this.

I can't actually read your comment while posting because...BTF. But I think you mentioned catchers? I provide catchers with a bonus/adjustment while I'm tinkering with their WAR. The new CHEWS+ may also provide a little more of a boost. In it I compare players to both their primary position (usually where they played the most games) and to all hitters. Then I average the results. I didn't explicitly do so previously, but in so doing I take away some of the blatant dis/advantages of certain positions. Also, again, these things are all shifters. I'm looking at them as an initial blast of info that helps me feel things out and make distinctions. Then I look for ways to balance position and chronology. But that's just me.
   179. Bleed the Freak Posted: April 15, 2017 at 09:45 PM (#5436056)
Thanks Doc, looking forward to the new info next week :)
   180. Rob_Wood Posted: April 26, 2017 at 09:49 PM (#5443303)
I am going to describe a new methodology I have developed to evaluate every baseball player who ever played in the major leagues. In truth, it is a mixture of good ideas developed by myself and others over the years. After the methodology is described, I will post the newly-created "values" for over 1,000 players, including all players in the Hall of Fame, all players in the Hall of Merit, all players who received any votes in the 2017 Hall of Merit election, and key players entering the 2018 Hall of Merit ballot.

The methodology is the happy union of two elements: (1) Pennants added; (2) Replacement level on a sliding scale.

The concept of pennants added is a concept familiar with everyone who is reading this so I will only summarize it here. The performance of each player each season can be encapsulated by his WAR (wins above replacement) and WAA (wins above average) figures. Throughout this I will be using the WAR and WAA figures appearing on the BB-Ref website. Over the course of a player's career, he accumulates career WAR and career WAA. But these are not immediately or easily compared across players. Different players will have different {WAR, WAA} profiles, will have played different number of seasons, will have different "peaks", etc.

Pennants added is a way to put everybody on an equal footing. In each season, a player's achievements are converted to an estimate of how often his achievements would be sufficient to lead his team to the pennant. I believe the methodology I follow is the standard developed over the years in the sabermetric community. The player's achievements {WAR, WAA} are added to different teams by replacing a replacement player on the team and a season is simulated and we keep track of the differential fraction of times the player-enhanced team wins the pennant.

What I have done is randomly drawn the run-scoring and run-prevention abilities of 8 teams in a league. The teams actual runs scored and runs allowed totals are derived by "normalizing" them so that the total runs scored in the league equals the total runs allowed in the league. Then a player (say the 1923 Babe Ruth) is added to each team in the league, one at a time, and 1,000 different 161-game seasons are played out (each team played each opponent 23 games each season). Of course, I keep track of how many more pennants the team with Babe Ruth wins versus the team without him. I did this for 10,000 different league-team profiles. And I did this for every value of WAR for the "added" player in question from 0 to 15.

Here are the results of the tens of millions of simulations (PA stands for Pennants Added):
WAR  PA
 0 .0000
 1 .0142
 2 .0296
 3 .0465
 4 .0630
 5 .0809
 6 .1002
 7 .1197
 8 .1398
 9 .1615
10 .1829
11 .2055
12 .2292
13 .2530
14 .2758
15 .3011

A few observations are in order. First, note that the relationship between Pennants Added and WAR is non-linear. Doubling WAR more than doubles Pennants Added, especially as the WAR gets larger. Second, I replicated the simulations with different number of games in the season and have found that the relationship is scalable. For example, the Pennants Added by a 2-WAR player in a 81 game season is virtually identical to the Pennants Added by a 4-WAR player in a 162 game season.

To capture the non-linearity, I posited that there was a "kink" in the relationship and that the difference in a league-average performance and a league-replacement level performance was 2.5 wins. I find that the following equation is the best fit for the Pennants Added relationship under those assumptions:

PA = (.0144)*F*[WAR-(WAA-1)] + (.0144)*ONEWAA*[F*(WAA-1)]^1.1310

where F = 162/L is the scale factor and reflects the length of the season (L), and ONEWAA is an indicator function whether or not WAA exceeds 1. It actually is a much easier formula than it looks. Essentially it mirrors the numbers shown in the WAR-PA relationship enumerated above.

Using the {WAR, WAA, L} seasonal data for any player, I can calculate his seasonal Pennant Added figure for that season. In case anyone is interested, 1923 Babe Ruth was worth around 0.30 pennants added.

In my next post, I will describe the second of the twin-pillars of my new approach.
   181. Rob_Wood Posted: April 26, 2017 at 11:04 PM (#5443322)
Here is the second in my series of posts in which I will describe the second pillar of my new player evaluation methodology.

The first post above described how a player's Pennant Added contribution can be calculated for each season of his career. Based upon that, it is tempting to simply add up the seasonal Pennant Added figures to derive the player's Career Pennant Added figure. I would like to argue that this simple sum is not so obvious and it tends to over-value players with long careers.

Think back to what the seasonal Pennant Added figure represents. It represents the "pennant value" difference between the player and a replacement level player for that season. Simply adding those figures from season to season is tantamount to assuming that the replacement-level player stays with the player over the course of his career. But I don't think this is correct.

When Bill James and others brought the concept of replacement-level into the sabermetric literature, there was a great deal of discussion of the concept. The part of that discussion that is germane to this post is how the replacement-level is affected by the passage of time. By its very nature, time restricts our choices in our lives. If we have more time, we will typically have more options to consider and better outcomes will result. The same holds true in baseball. Baseball managers and general managers can shift more things around and engender better outcomes given the time to do so.

As an extreme example, if today's starting shortstop comes down ill right before gametime, the manager has few options. He likely will start the backup shortstop or possibly shift other fielders around to cover for the missing player. If the team's starting shortstop tells his manager that he has to miss next Sunday's game due to a family obligation (this is undoubtedly hypothetical, but bear with me), the team has more time to make other arrangements. Maybe they would bring up a Triple-A shortstop for one game.

Extending the example even further, suppose the starting shortstop breaks his leg skiing over the winter and will be out for the whole of the following season. Now the team's GM may well try to trade for another shortstop or make other arrangements with his minor league stable. In the extreme, suppose the starting shortstop dies or quits baseball in the prime of his career. Then, over the next several years, the team's GM may well make drafting a shortstop a high priority and/or be willing to give up more in a trade (or free agency) to acquire a new shortstop. The point is that quality of the "replacement" shortstop will rise over time, as shown by these scenarios. In the limit, the quality of the replacement level will approach a league average player.

I have done some research that indicates that teams typically field (on average) a league-average player at each position over a 20-year horizon. Of course, some teams have trouble finding a good player at a certain position (like the NY Mets and third base), but generally speaking 20 years is sufficient for the "replacement level" to reach the quality of the league average.

An example can sometimes paint the picture better than lots of words. Consider the Chicago Cubs of the mid-1960s. They had a young shortstop named Don Kessinger. In truth Kessinger wasn't all that great of a player, but he was the best the Cubs had. Kessinger was the starting shortstop for the Cubs for nearly a decade. Suppose I told you that Kessinger was a below average player each year but above replacement-level each season (this is a stylized example). Suppose for simplicity that Kessinger's seasonal WAR-WAA figures would lead you to believe that he contributed 0.01 Pennants Added each season.

Should the Cubs be happy? How much did Kessinger really contribute to the Cubs' chances of winning the pennant over his 10-year stretch as their starting shortstop. Multiplying 10*0.01 = 0.10. Is this an accurate representation of what Kessinger brought to the Cubs? I say that Kessinger's actual contribution to the Cubs winning a pennant over these 10-years is significantly less than 0.10.

Here is where the "time-based" replacement-level concept comes in. I argue that this over-values Kessinger's contributions since he locked down the shortstop position for 10 years. Over a typical 10-year stretch, the Cubs would have expected better performance than that over any 10-year period.

Having Kessinger (or anybody for that matter) hold down the same position for ten years essentially locks out other options the Cubs might have been willing to try in Kessinger's absence. It is a type of "opportunity cost" argument. Playing Kessinger for 10 years deprived the Cubs of other opportunities they could have pursued over that time period.

I have posited a "sliding replacement level" over time. In one year, it is the typical replacement-level used in WAR calculations. However, as it takes 20 years to reach the league average, every year it ratchets up 5% (1/20) of the gap between the league-average and league-replacement-level quality levels. As an example, if Kessinger were a 20-year starter, in his 20th season his "sliding replacement level" would actually be that season's league average, not that season's league-replacement level. In essence, a team rightly expects more from a veteran due to the opportunity cost nature of his veteran status.

Over the years I have noticed that several GMs have expressed this view. After Albert Pujols signed a long-term deal with the Angels, I remember hearing the Cardinals GM say that one reason they didn't match the Angels' contract offer was that the Cardinals had several players in the minor leagues that they hoped and expected would now be able to contribute at the major league level (a spot opened up for them). Theo Epstein has said similar things when he was GM of the Red Sox. Signing players to long-term contracts have "hidden" costs that are difficult to see. One of the hidden costs is that the player typically blocks the development of others in the organization.

Anyway, I believe that this is an important aspect of player evaluation that has largely been ignored. In my newly-created player evaluation methodology, I have utilized this "sliding replacement level" framework. Rather than simply sum the player's seasonal Pennant Added figures, I now adjust his unadulterated career Pennants Added figure to deduct the opportunity cost of playing that many years in terms of blocking an organization from identifying/developing/acquiring other alternatives. In case anyone is worried, the sliding replacement level is capped at the league average even for seasons beyond the player's 20th major league season.

What I have attempted to ascertain is whether the player in question "blocked" the development of others in the organization in the season in question. Clearly if the player was a starter for every game in the season, he was a blocker that season. Clearly if he was only a late-inning defensive replacement in 25 games during the season, he was not a blocker that season. I used judgment for all cases in between. Generally speaking, if a position player was a starter for significantly more than half of the team's games, he was considered a blocker for that season. For pitchers, it depends upon what the team is expecting out of its pitchers. Essentially, a regular starting pitcher is considered a blocker, but not a spot starter or fifth starter. Relief pitchers are especially challenging -- I attempted to use an innings perspective so that it might take two years of Mariano Rivera's typical usage to equal one year of "blocking" for our purposes. This is since WAR and WAA utilize an innings perspective.

The following posts will present my new "Career Pennants Added based upon Sliding Replacement Levels" figures.
   182. Rob_Wood Posted: April 27, 2017 at 12:38 AM (#5443344)
Here I will present the greatest players of all-time per my newly created "Career Pennants Added based upon Sliding Replacement Levels" (CPASR) as described in the two previous posts above.

I want to first emphasize what these figures represent and what they do not. They are based exclusively upon WAR and WAA figures themselves. So all the strengths and weaknesses of WAR and WAA will be reflected in my figures as well. As pitchers' WAR is dependent upon their innings pitched and pitchers' workloads varied greatly over time, CPASR for 19th century pitchers may appear to be unduly large. Somewhat related, relief pitchers will be included even though their WAR figures are notoriously small -- accordingly the CPASR figures for career relief pitchers may appear unduly small.

Factors not considered in WAR and WAA and therefore not considered in CPASR include: (i) post season performance; (ii) minor league credit; (iii) missing years due to military service or other reasons; (iv) strength of competition (e.g., 19th century, during WWII, maybe AL during the 1950s, lesser major leagues such as FL, UA, AA, NA, early AL, etc.); (v) catcher bonus; (vi) unequal opportunities; etc.

Recently retired players who are not yet eligible for the HOF/HOM are denoted by **. Players eligible for the HOF/HOM for the first time in 2018 are denoted by ***. The stats of active players (denoted by *) are complete through the 2016 season. Active players figures may be confusing or misleading, especially if the player is in the prime of his career, and are included solely for comparison and completeness.

Also, as both the HOF and HOM were populated chronologically over time, at times "lesser" players were elected due to coming on the ballot "early" or in a "down" year. So we shouldn't really expect that the HOF and HOM would be populated exclusively from the top ranks of my CPASR. In the table below, a M denotes a member of the Hall of Merit and an F denotes a member of the Hall of Fame. Final point, I have calculated CPASR for over 1,000 players but this is not necessarily saying that these are the top 1,000 players of all-time (there may be some players who should be in the lower echelons who are not listed).

   183. Rob_Wood Posted: April 27, 2017 at 01:07 AM (#5443354)
Here are the top 100 according to Career Pennants Added based upon Sliding Replacement Levels (CPASR).

  1. Babe Ruth          3.263  M  F
  2. Cy Young           3.011  M  F
  3. Al Spalding        2.910  M 
  4. Walter Johnson     2.872  M  F
  5. Tommy Bond         2.785
  6. Barry Bonds        2.653  M 
  7. Willie Mays        2.536  M  F
  8. Ty Cobb            2.433  M  F
  9. Rogers Hornsby     2.315  M  F
 10. Jim McCormick      2.283  
 11. Kid Nichols        2.240  M  F
 12. Tim Keefe          2.188  M  F
 13. Honus Wagner       2.188  M  F
 14. Tris Speaker       2.162  M  F
 15. Ted Williams       2.136  M  F
 16. Hank Aaron         2.135  M  F
 17. Cap Anson          2.106  M  F
 18. Roger Clemens      2.065  M 
 19. Pete Alexander     1.980  M  F
 20. Stan Musial        1.976  M  F
 21. Hoss Radbourn      1.971  M  F
 22. Lou Gehrig         1.956  M  F
 23. Eddie Collins      1.950  M  F
 24. Pud Galvin         1.821  M  F
 25. John Clarkson      1.788  M  F
 26. Christy Mathewson  1.769  M  F
 27. Roger Connor       1.760  M  F
 28. Alex Rodriguez**   1.759  
 29. Nap Lajoie         1.751  M  F
 30. Mike Schmidt       1.741  M  F
 31. Dan Brouthers      1.737  M  F
 32. Lefty Grove        1.710  M  F
 33. Mel Ott            1.698  M  F
 34. Jim A Devlin       1.689  
 35. Candy Cummings     1.658  
 36. Tom Seaver         1.650  M  F
 37. Mickey Mantle      1.618  M  F
 38. Jimmie Foxx        1.591  M  F
 39. Rickey Henderson   1.571  M  F
 40. Albert Pujols*     1.570  
 41. Randy Johnson      1.553  M  F
 42. Frank Robinson     1.549  M  F
 43. Greg Maddux        1.540  M  F
 44. Jim Whitney        1.533  
 45. Tony Mullane       1.500  
 46. Eddie Mathews      1.497  M  F
 47. John Ward          1.474  M  F
 48. Dick McBride       1.466  
 49. George Zettlein    1.460  
 50. Joe Morgan         1.456  M  F
 51. Mickey Welch       1.447     F
 52. Warren Spahn       1.443  M  F
 53. Eddie Plank        1.415  M  F
 54. Amos Rusie         1.391  M  F
 55. Bob Gibson         1.388  M  F
 56. Roberto Clemente   1.374  M  F
 57. Ross Barnes        1.373  M 
 58. Bob Caruthers      1.363  M 
 59. George Davis       1.355  M  F
 60. Wade Boggs         1.346  M  F
 61. Pedro Martinez     1.333  M  F
 62. Cal Ripken         1.326  M  F
 63. Bert Blyleven      1.325  M  F
 64. Joe DiMaggio       1.306  M  F
 65. Jack Glasscock     1.300  M 
 66. Phil Niekro        1.299  M  F
 67. Jeff Bagwell       1.290  M  F
 68. Deacon White       1.267  M  F
 69. Adrian Beltre*     1.249  
 70. Steve Carlton      1.249  M  F
 71. Ed Delahanty       1.238  M  F
 72. Al Kaline          1.235  M  F
 73. Charlie Gehringer  1.225  M  F
 74. Robin Roberts      1.223  M  F
 75. George Brett       1.210  M  F
 76. Arky Vaughan       1.209  M  F
 77. Mike Mussina       1.208  M 
 78. Gaylord Perry      1.193  M  F
 79. Carl Yastrzemski   1.185  M  F
 80. Chipper Jones***   1.171  
 81. Ken Griffey Jr.    1.167  M  F
 82. Fergie Jenkins     1.145  M  F
 83. Johnny Mize        1.144  M  F
 84. Billy Hamilton     1.142  M  F
 85. Ed Walsh           1.140  M  F
 86. Bill Dahlen        1.138  M 
 87. Curt Schilling     1.129  M 
 88. Rod Carew          1.125  M  F
 89. Johnny Bench       1.114  M  F
 90. Harry Heilmann     1.103  M  F
 91. Jim O'Rourke       1.102  M  F
 92. Joe Jackson        1.097  M 
 93. Paul Hines         1.096  M 
 94. Clark Griffith     1.086  M 
 95. Larry Walker       1.081  M 
 96. Will White         1.079  
 97. Luke Appling       1.073  M  F
 98. Sam Crawford       1.071  M  F
 99. Frank Thomas       1.069  M  F
100. Bobby Grich        1.064  M 
   184. Rob_Wood Posted: April 27, 2017 at 01:28 AM (#5443360)
Here are 101-200.

101. Tom Glavine        1.060  M  F
102. Wes Ferrell        1.054  M 
103. Silver King        1.051  
104. Jackie Robinson    1.047  M  F
105. Lou Boudreau       1.042  M  F
106. George Wright      1.041  M 
107. Carl Hubbell       1.041  M  F
108. Vic Willis         1.037     F
109. Guy Hecker         1.033  
110. Bobby Wallace      1.032  M  F
111. Paul Waner         1.031  M  F
112. Ron Santo          1.027  M  F
113. Frank Baker        1.026  M  F
114. Hal Newhouser      1.025  M  F
115. Stan Coveleski     1.024  M  F
116. Rube Waddell       1.023  M  F
117. Ozzie Smith        1.020  M  F
118. Lou Whitaker       1.019  M 
119. Joe Start          1.017  M 
120. Joe McGinnity      1.013  M  F
121. Roy Halladay**     1.010  
122. Brooks Robinson    1.009  M  F
123. Frankie Frisch     1.007  M  F
124. Jesse Burkett      1.006  M  F
125. Duke Snider        1.004  M  F
126. Joe Cronin         1.004  M  F
127. Scott Rolen***     1.003  
128. Al Simmons         1.003  M  F
129. Miguel Cabrera*    1.002  
130. Edgar Martinez     1.000  M 
131. Kevin Brown        0.997  M 
132. Barry Larkin       0.994  M  F
133. Ted Breitenstein   0.994  
134. Kenny Lofton       0.994  
135. Don Drysdale       0.994  M  F
136. Robin Yount        0.991  M  F
137. Rick Reuschel      0.989  M 
138. Jack Stivetts      0.989  
139. Bob Feller         0.989  M  F
140. Chase Utley*       0.982  
141. Gary Carter        0.980  M  F
142. Dazzy Vance        0.980  M  F
143. Jim Palmer         0.974  M  F
144. Fred Clarke        0.973  M  F
145. David Cone         0.971  M 
146. King Kelly         0.969  M  F
147. John Smoltz        0.967  M  F
148. Ted Lyons          0.964  M  F
149. Fred Dunlap        0.964  
150. Hank Greenberg     0.964  M  F
151. Alan Trammell      0.963  M 
152. Buck Ewing         0.960  M  F
153. Pee Wee Reese      0.959  M  F
154. Urban Shocker      0.957  
155. Jim Thome***       0.956  
156. Ryne Sandberg      0.955  M  F
157. Goose Goslin       0.953  M  F
158. Ernie Banks        0.953  M  F
159. Ed Morris          0.947  
160. Robinson Cano*     0.946  
161. Joe Gordon         0.940  M  F
162. Paul Molitor       0.938  M  F
163. Harry Stovey       0.935  M 
164. Carlos Beltran*    0.932  
165. Juan Marichal      0.928  M  F
166. Tony Gwynn         0.927  M  F
167. Rafael Palmeiro    0.921  M 
168. Richie Ashburn     0.920  M  F
169. Cal McVey          0.918  M 
170. Clayton Kershaw*   0.918  
171. Ken Boyer          0.918  M 
172. Reggie Jackson     0.915  M  F
173. Manny Ramirez      0.914  M 
174. Ed Williamson      0.914  
175. Buddy Bell         0.913  
176. Mark McGwire       0.911  M 
177. Roberto Alomar     0.910  M  F
178. Eddie Cicotte      0.909  
179. Tim Raines         0.907  M  F
180. Pete Browning      0.905  M 
181. Luis Tiant         0.904  
182. Charlie Bennett    0.900  M 
183. Mike Piazza        0.899  M  F
184. Derek Jeter**      0.897  
185. Red Ruffing        0.896  M  F
186. Elmer Flick        0.894  M  F
187. George Gore        0.892  M 
188. Sal Bando          0.890  
189. Reggie Smith       0.886  M 
190. Andruw Jones***    0.885  
191. Mordecai Brown     0.885  M  F
192. Nolan Ryan         0.877  M  F
193. Jake Beckley       0.877  M  F
194. Pete Rose          0.874  M 
195. Graig Nettles      0.872  M 
196. Mike Trout*        0.871  
197. Keith Hernandez    0.871  M 
198. Dave Stieb         0.870  M 
199. Red Faber          0.869  M  F
200. Dick Allen         0.864  M 



   185. Rob_Wood Posted: April 27, 2017 at 01:46 AM (#5443363)
Here are 201-300.

201. Bill Terry         0.864  M  F
202. Hardy Richardson   0.864  M 
203. George Sisler      0.859  M  F
204. Dwight Evans       0.857  M 
205. Carlton Fisk       0.855  M  F
206. Noodles Hahn       0.855  
207. Todd Helton**      0.854  
208. Willie Randolph    0.854  M 
209. Ivan Rodriguez     0.853  M  F
210. Jim Edmonds        0.852  M 
211. Bob Johnson        0.851  
212. Jimmy Collins      0.850  M  F
213. Sherry Magee       0.847  M 
214. Jim Bunning        0.845  M  F
215. George Uhle        0.842  
216. Wilbur Cooper      0.839  
217. Kevin Appier       0.839  
218. Whitey Ford        0.835  M  F
219. Joe Kelley         0.834  M  F
220. Joe Medwick        0.833  M  F
221. John McGraw        0.831  M 
222. Craig Biggio       0.830  M  F
223. Andre Dawson       0.828  M  F
224. Bobby Bonds        0.827  
225. Yogi Berra         0.826  M  F
226. Nap Rucker         0.825  
227. Al Orth            0.824  
228. Billy Williams     0.824  M  F
229. Dennis Eckersley   0.823  M  F
230. Zack Greinke*      0.822  
231. Babe Adams         0.821  
232. Willie McCovey     0.815  M  F
233. Jesse Tannehill    0.813  
234. Johan Santana***   0.813  
235. Mickey Cochrane    0.813  M  F
236. Charley Jones      0.811  M 
237. Eddie Murray       0.808  M  F
238. Jimmy Wynn         0.807  M 
239. Ezra Sutton        0.805  M 
240. Willie Keeler      0.805  M  F
241. Jack Powell        0.805  
242. Sam Thompson       0.804  M  F
243. Hippo Vaughn       0.804  
244. Joe Tinker         0.802     F
245. Bobby Abreu**      0.801  
246. Bucky Walters      0.798  
247. Zack Wheat         0.796  M  F
248. Billy Herman       0.796  M  F
249. Vladimir Guerrero  0.794  
250. Larry Doby         0.794  M  F
251. Ralph Kiner        0.792  M  F
252. Sammy Sosa         0.790  
253. Harmon Killebrew   0.787  M  F
254. Tim Hudson**       0.785  
255. Bill Dickey        0.785  M  F
256. John Olerud        0.784  
257. Orel Hershiser     0.784  
258. Sandy Koufax       0.784  M  F
259. Ian Kinsler*       0.783  
260. CC Sabathia*       0.782  
261. Dizzy Dean         0.782     F
262. Robin Ventura      0.781  
263. Bob Lemon          0.779  M  F
264. Bret Saberhagen    0.778  M 
265. Chuck Finley       0.778  
266. Mike EE Smith      0.778  
267. Minnie Minoso      0.777  M 
268. Wilbur Wood        0.777  
269. Hughie Jennings    0.776  M  F
270. Andy Pettitte**    0.776  
271. Dustin Pedroia*    0.775  
272. Chet Lemon         0.774  
273. Cupid Childs       0.774  M 
274. Ichiro Suzuki*     0.773  
275. Nig Cuppy          0.773  
276. Sadie McMahon      0.772  
277. Cole Hamels*       0.771  
278. Dizzy Trout        0.770  
279. Bid McPhee         0.768  M  F
280. Art Fletcher       0.768  
281. Joe Sewell         0.768  M  F
282. Willie Davis       0.766  
283. Roy Oswalt**       0.765  
284. Carl Mays          0.764  
285. Will Clark         0.763  M 
286. Eddie Rommel       0.763  
287. Early Wynn         0.763  M  F
288. Felix Hernandez*   0.760  
289. Bobby Doerr        0.758  M  F
290. Mark Buehrle**     0.758  
291. Heinie Groh        0.753  M 
292. Kirby Puckett      0.750     F
293. Frank Dwyer        0.748  
294. Joey Votto*        0.748  
295. Ron Cey            0.747  
296. Joe Torre          0.746  M 
297. Justin Verlander*  0.746  
298. David Wright*      0.745  
299. Doc White          0.742  
300. Tommy Bridges      0.742  
   186. Rob_Wood Posted: April 27, 2017 at 02:03 AM (#5443365)
Here are 301-400.

301. Frank Chance       0.737     F
302. Dwight Gooden      0.735  
303. Billy Pierce       0.735  M 
304. Tony Lazzeri       0.734     F
305. Burleigh Grimes    0.734     F
306. Smoky Joe Wood     0.733  
307. Charlie Keller     0.732  M 
308. Stan Hack          0.732  M 
309. Earl Averill       0.731  M  F
310. Ron Guidry         0.731  
311. Pink Hawley        0.728  
312. Mark Langston      0.722  
313. Addie Joss         0.722     F
314. Lance Berkman**    0.721  
315. Bobby Veach        0.719  
316. Evan Longoria*     0.718  
317. Jimmy Key          0.716  
318. Larry Corcoran     0.715  
319. Dave Winfield      0.715  M  F
320. Mike Tiernan       0.714  
321. Darrell Evans      0.714  M 
322. Gene Tenace        0.713  
323. Mark Teixeira**    0.713  
324. Jeff Kent          0.713  
325. Enos Slaughter     0.712  M  F
326. Joe Mauer*         0.709  
327. Gabby Hartnett     0.708  M  F
328. Brian Giles        0.708  
329. Gary Sheffield     0.707  M 
330. Cesar Cedeno       0.705  
331. Lon Warneke        0.704  
332. Schoolboy Rowe     0.703  
333. Willie Stargell    0.700  M  F
334. Chief Bender       0.699     F
335. Jim Fregosi        0.698  
336. George Mullin      0.696  
337. Jimmy Sheckard     0.694  M 
338. Red Lucas          0.694  
339. Max Carey          0.694  M  F
340. Ryan Braun*        0.692  
341. Norm Cash          0.691  
342. Jack Chesbro       0.691     F
343. Jose Cruz          0.690  
344. Larry Jackson      0.690  
345. Jack Clark         0.690  
346. Bob Elliott        0.689  
347. Hugh Duffy         0.688     F
348. Carlos Zambrano*** 0.688  
349. Jack Quinn         0.686  
350. Bill Donovan       0.685  
351. Frank Viola        0.685  
352. Bob Shawkey        0.683  
353. Mariano Rivera**   0.683  
354. Cliff Lee**        0.682  
355. Thurman Munson     0.681  
356. Harry Hooper       0.681     F
357. Larry Gardner      0.679  
358. Nomar Garciaparra  0.679  
359. Don Sutton         0.677  M  F
360. Dolph Camilli      0.676  
361. Claude Passeau     0.676  
362. Harry Brecheen     0.674  
363. Dave Bancroft      0.673     F
364. Troy Tulowitzki*   0.672  
365. Tony Phillips      0.672  
366. Dolf Luque         0.671  
367. Chuck Knoblauch    0.670  
368. Ken Williams       0.669  
369. Johnny Damon***    0.669  
370. Ned Garver         0.666  
371. Bill Hutchinson    0.666  
372. Steve Rogers       0.665  
373. Eppa Rixey         0.663  M  F
374. Johnny Evers       0.662     F
375. Mike Griffin       0.660  
376. Bernie Williams    0.660  
377. Kenny Rogers       0.660  
378. Bobo Newsom        0.659  
379. Nellie Fox         0.659  M  F
380. Wally Berger       0.658  
381. Sam Leever         0.658  
382. Ben Zobrist*       0.657  
383. Sam Rice           0.656     F
384. Denny Lyons        0.656  
385. Chuck Klein        0.654     F
386. Orlando Cepeda     0.652     F
387. David Wells        0.652  
388. Bert Campaneris    0.652  
389. Vern Stephens      0.649  
390. Vada Pinson        0.649  
391. Larry Doyle        0.649  
392. Lenny Dykstra      0.648  
393. Matt Williams      0.647  
394. Kiki Cuyler        0.647     F
395. Brad Radke         0.646  
396. Fred Lynn          0.646  
397. Bill Dinneen       0.644  
398. David Ortiz**      0.644  
399. Earle Combs        0.643     F
400. Brett Butler       0.642  

   187. Rob_Wood Posted: April 27, 2017 at 02:19 AM (#5443368)
Here are 401-500.

401. Albert Belle        0.641  
402. Mickey Lolich       0.639  
403. Lip Pike            0.638  M 
404. Travis Jackson      0.638     F
405. Jerry Koosman       0.637  
406. Frank Tanana        0.636  
407. Bill Nicholson      0.636  
408. Mel Stottlemyre     0.635  
409. Del Pratt           0.634  
410. Dutch Emil Leonard  0.634  
411. Gil McDougald       0.633  
412. Rocky Colavito      0.633  
413. Fred McGriff        0.632  
414. Fernando Valenzuela 0.631  
415. Toby Harrah         0.631  
416. Roy White           0.631  
417. Jason Giambi**      0.629  
418. Waite Hoyt          0.629     F
419. Cy Seymour          0.629  
420. Hack Wilson         0.628     F
421. Jeff Pfeffer        0.628  
422. Jim Rice            0.628     F
423. Willie Wilson       0.627  
424. Luis Aparicio       0.627     F
425. Ellis Burks         0.627  
426. Hoyt Wilhelm        0.626  M  F
427. Tony Oliva          0.624  
428. Jack Fournier       0.622  
429. Devon White         0.622  
430. Vida Blue           0.622  
431. Roy Thomas          0.621  
432. Dale Murphy         0.621  
433. Curtis Granderson*  0.620  
434. Eddie Stanky        0.620  
435. Buddy Myer          0.619  
436. Ed McKean           0.619  
437. Gil Hodges          0.618  
438. Edd Roush           0.615  M  F
439. Frank Killen        0.615  
440. Murry Dickson       0.615  
441. Ted Simmons         0.613  M 
442. Phil Rizzuto        0.613     F
443. Larry French        0.612  
444. Adrian Gonzalez*    0.612  
445. Mike Cameron        0.611  
446. Sam McDowell        0.611  
447. Fielder Jones       0.610  
448. Bill Bradley        0.609  
449. Adam Wainwright*    0.609  
450. Matt Holliday*      0.609  
451. Jose Rijo           0.609  
452. JD Drew             0.608  
453. Javier Vazquez      0.606  
454. Tony Perez          0.604     F
455. Augie Galan         0.603  
456. Andy Messersmith    0.603  
457. Roger Peckinpaugh   0.600  
458. Ernie Lombardi      0.600     F
459. George Foster       0.599  
460. Tommy Leach         0.599  
461. Max Scherzer*       0.598  
462. Jim Maloney         0.598  
463. Ed Konetchy         0.598  
464. Don Newcombe        0.598  
465. Darryl Strawberry   0.597  
466. Babe Herman         0.596  
467. Jon Lester*         0.596  
468. Tommy John          0.595  
469. Andrew McCutchen*   0.595  
470. Curt Davis          0.595  
471. Don Mattingly       0.594  
472. Ray Caldwell        0.594  
473. Lefty Gomez         0.592     F
474. Jack Taylor         0.592  
475. Bill Freehan        0.591  M 
476. Miguel Tejada**     0.590  
477. John Candelaria     0.590  
478. Heinie Manush       0.587     F
479. Roger Bresnahan     0.587  M  F
480. Jon Matlack         0.586  
481. Doug DeCinces       0.584  
482. Russ Ford           0.584  
483. Jesse Barfield      0.583  
484. Lonny Frey          0.582  
485. Freddy Parent       0.580  
486. Al Dark             0.577  
487. Curt Flood          0.577  
488. Rich Gossage        0.577  M  F
489. Brickyard Kennedy   0.577  
490. Gus Weyhing         0.577  
491. Brian Downing       0.577  
492. Sid Gordon          0.575  
493. Bartolo Colon*      0.574  
494. Art Devlin          0.574  
495. Ben Chapman         0.572  
496. Dixie Walker        0.572  
497. Luis Gonzalez       0.572  
498. David Justice       0.572  
499. Harlond Clift       0.571  
500. Fred Tenney         0.571  

   188. Rob_Wood Posted: April 27, 2017 at 02:36 AM (#5443369)
Here are 501-600.

501. Carlos Delgado      0.570  
502. Mark Grace          0.569  
503. Bill Joyce          0.568  
504. Camilo Pascual      0.566  
505. Howard Ehmke        0.566  
506. Lave Cross          0.565  
507. Jim Kaat            0.565  
508. Tim Salmon          0.565  
509. Herb Pennock        0.563     F
510. Dutch H. Leonard    0.563  
511. George J. Burns     0.563  
512. Joe Judge           0.562  
513. Josh Donaldson*     0.562  
514. John Valentin       0.562  
515. Jimmy Ryan          0.560  
516. Wally Schang        0.560  
517. Jeff Heath          0.560  
518. Tom Candiotti       0.560  
519. Tom York            0.560  
520. Tony Fernandez      0.560  
521. Andy Van Slyke      0.559  
522. Dennis Martinez     0.559  
523. Al Rosen            0.557  
524. Al Leiter           0.556  
525. Virgil Trucks       0.555  
526. Lonnie Smith        0.555  
527. Mark Gubicza        0.553  
528. George Van Haltren  0.552  
529. Torii Hunter**      0.552  
530. Darrell Porter      0.552  
531. Jimmy Rollins*      0.550  
532. Rico Petrocelli     0.550  
533. Tommy Henrich       0.550  
534. Kip Selbach         0.549  
535. Roger Maris         0.549  
536. Felipe Alou         0.549  
537. Mark Belanger       0.549  
538. Jim Sundberg        0.547  
539. Fritz Ostermueller  0.545  
540. Jake Peavy**        0.545  
541. Buster Posey*       0.544  
542. Jose Canseco        0.544  
543. Davey Lopes         0.543  
544. Amos Otis           0.541  
545. Ed Reulbach         0.541  
546. Mel Harder          0.539  
547. Hanley Ramirez*     0.539  
548. Ice Box Chamberlain 0.538  
549. Kirk Gibson         0.538  
550. Troy Glaus          0.537  
551. Bob Welch           0.537  
552. Tommy Holmes        0.536  
553. Don Buford          0.535  
554. Tom Zachary         0.535  
555. Max Bishop          0.534  
556. Ray Lankford        0.534  
557. Howie Pollet        0.534  
558. Catfish Hunter      0.533     F
559. Thornton Lee        0.533  
560. Mort Cooper         0.532  
561. Jim Bagby Sr.       0.531  
562. Milt Pappas         0.531  
563. Deacon Phillippe    0.531  
564. Jouett Meekin       0.528  
565. Jorge Posada        0.527  
566. Van Mungo           0.524  
567. Claude Osteen       0.524  
568. Dwayne Murphy       0.522  
569. Jim Perry           0.522  
570. Harry Davis         0.522  
571. Roy Campanella      0.521  M  F
572. Donie Bush          0.521  
573. Billy Nash          0.521  
574. Danny Murphy        0.520  
575. Bill White          0.520  
576. Jim Gilliam         0.520  
577. Jack Morris         0.519  
578. Benny Kauff         0.519  
579. Gavy Cravath        0.519  
580. Frank McCormick     0.518  
581. Jason Heyward*      0.518  
582. Reggie Sanders      0.518  
583. Paul Blair          0.518  
584. Bullet Joe Bush     0.517  
585. Billy Rhines        0.516  
586. Pedro Guerrero      0.516  
587. Rafael Furcal**     0.516  
588. Brandon Webb        0.516  
589. Moises Alou         0.515  
590. Harry Howell        0.515  
591. Jered Weaver*       0.515  
592. Jack Clements       0.515  
593. Andy Pafko          0.514  
594. Ken Singleton       0.514  
595. Chris Sale*         0.514  
596. Red Schoendienst    0.513     F
597. Ross Youngs         0.513     F
598. Roy Cullenbine      0.511  
599. Bobby Shantz        0.511  
600. John Tudor          0.511  

   189. Rob_Wood Posted: April 27, 2017 at 02:50 AM (#5443372)
Here are 601-700.

601. Johnny Callison     0.510  
602. Heinie Zimmerman    0.509  
603. Placido Polanco**   0.508  
604. Carney Lansford     0.508  
605. Pat Hentgen         0.507  
606. Carl Crawford**     0.507  
607. Herman Long         0.506  
608. Curt Simmons        0.506  
609. Bob Rush            0.506  
610. Terry Turner        0.505  
611. Hooks Dauss         0.505  
612. Arlie Latham        0.505  
613. Kevin Youkilis**    0.504  
614. Jason Kendall       0.503  
615. Johnny Antonelli    0.503  
616. Jose Reyes*         0.502  
617. Burt Hooton         0.502  
618. Brian Jordan        0.502  
619. Rube Walberg        0.502  
620. Claude Hendrix      0.500  
621. Clyde Milan         0.500  
622. Maury Wills         0.500  
623. Teddy Higuera       0.499  
624. Julio Franco        0.498  
625. Josh Beckett**      0.498  
626. Juan Gonzalez       0.498  
627. Dick Bartell        0.497  
628. Bob Ewing           0.497  
629. Mike Donlin         0.496  
630. Jose Bautista*      0.496  
631. Ken Keltner         0.495  
632. Dan McGann          0.495  
633. Johnny Pesky        0.494  
634. Rudy York           0.494  
635. Dan Haren**         0.493  
636. Robby Thompson      0.492  
637. Charlie Root        0.490  
638. Bruce Hurst         0.490  
639. Jeff Cirillo        0.489  
640. Freddy Garcia**     0.488  
641. Steve Finley        0.487  
642. Kid Elberfeld       0.487  
643. Miller Huggins      0.487  
644. Cy Williams         0.486  
645. Ken McMullen        0.486  
646. Eric Chavez**       0.485  
647. Paul O'Neill        0.485  
648. Jay Bell            0.484  
649. Johnny Logan        0.484  
650. Claude Ritchey      0.483  
651. Lu Blue             0.483  
652. Sad Sam Jones       0.481  
653. Bob Friend          0.481  
654. Bob Allison         0.480  
655. Magglio Ordonez     0.480  
656. Al Oliver           0.480  
657. Bill Madlock        0.480  
658. Ryan Zimmerman*     0.480  
659. Kid Gleason         0.479  
660. Cecil Cooper        0.478  
661. Tony Cuccinello     0.478  
662. Ed Brandt           0.477  
663. Slim Sallee         0.477  
664. Max Lanier          0.476  
665. Elbie Fletcher      0.476  
666. Sal Maglie          0.476  
667. Sid Fernandez       0.476  
668. Rick Rhoden         0.476  
669. David Price*        0.475  
670. Topsy Hartsel       0.474  
671. Frank Lary          0.473  
672. Alex Gordon*        0.473  
673. Eric Davis          0.473  
674. Jake Daubert        0.471  
675. Chick Stahl         0.471  
676. Chris Carpenter***  0.470  
677. Adonis Terry        0.470  
678. Garry Maddox        0.469  
679. Dick McAuliffe      0.469  
680. George Kell         0.469     F
681. Kent Hrbek          0.467  
682. Boog Powell         0.467  
683. Jimmy Williams      0.467  
684. Dusty Baker         0.467  
685. Bump Hadley         0.467  
686. Earl Torgeson       0.467  
687. Ken Caminiti        0.466  
688. Johnny Sain         0.466  
689. Russell Martin*     0.466  
690. Jim Barr            0.465  
691. Harvey Haddix       0.464  
692. Eddie Lopat         0.463  
693. Brady Anderson      0.463  
694. Riggs Stephenson    0.461  
695. Madison Bumgarner*  0.461  
696. Preacher Roe        0.461  
697. Pie Traynor         0.460     F
698. Mel Parnell         0.460  
699. Shane Victorino**   0.460  
700. Matt Cain*          0.459  
   190. Rob_Wood Posted: April 27, 2017 at 03:06 AM (#5443374)
Here are 701-800.

701. Charlie Leibrandt   0.459  
702. Snuffy Stirnweiss   0.458  
703. Dom DiMaggio        0.456  
704. Brett Gardner*      0.456  
705. Ray Chapman         0.456  
706. Dick Groat          0.455  
707. Frank Howard        0.454  
708. Chick Hafey         0.454     F
709. Hal Trosky          0.454  
710. Kevin Mitchell      0.454  
711. Willie Kamm         0.453  
712. Alex Fernandez      0.453  
713. Lance Parrish       0.452  
714. Freddie Fitzsimmons 0.451  
715. John Denny          0.450  
716. Eddie Joost         0.450  
717. Ted Kluszewski      0.450  
718. Mike Boddicker      0.449  
719. Mike Garcia         0.448  
720. Ed Killian          0.448  
721. Johnny Cueto*       0.447  
722. John Hiller         0.447  
723. George H. Burns     0.446  
724. Vern Law            0.446  
725. Tom Gordon          0.445  
726. Ewell Blackwell     0.445  
727. Travis Fryman       0.444  
728. Rick Wise           0.444  
729. George Grantham     0.444  
730. John Lackey*        0.444  
731. Greg Swindell       0.443  
732. Lance Johnson       0.442  
733. Cecil Travis        0.442  
734. Victor Martinez*    0.441  
735. John Titus          0.440  
736. Dean Chance         0.440  
737. Bill Doran          0.439  
738. Scott Fletcher      0.439  
739. Don Money           0.439  
740. Mickey Rivers       0.438  
741. Smoky Burgess       0.438  
742. Tim Wallach         0.438  
743. Larry Dierker       0.438  
744. Carl Furillo        0.438  
745. Sonny Siebert       0.438  
746. Danny Darwin        0.437  
747. Lefty O'Doul        0.437  
748. Jack McDowell       0.437  
749. Ken Raffensberger   0.437  
750. Gary Gaetti         0.436  
751. George R. Stone     0.436  
752. Lou Brock           0.435     F
753. Phil Cavaretta      0.435  
754. Brian Roberts       0.435  
755. Solly Hemus         0.435  
756. Red JC Smith        0.433  
757. Ron Gant            0.433  
758. Jim Bottomley       0.433     F
759. Ginger Beaumont     0.433  
760. Art Nehf            0.433  
761. Bobby Avila         0.432  
762. Hooks Wiltse        0.432  
763. Dave Parker         0.432  
764. Mark Ellis**        0.430  
765. Marty Marion        0.430  
766. Grady Sizemore      0.429  
767. Rusty Staub         0.429  
768. Josh Hamilton*      0.429  
769. Hal Schumacher      0.429  
770. Bobby Thomson       0.428  
771. Dave Concepcion     0.428  
772. Watty Clark         0.427  
773. Jason Schmidt       0.426  
774. Ellis Kinder        0.426  
775. Rube Marquard       0.425     F
776. Walker Cooper       0.424  
777. Joe Harris          0.424  
778. Big Bill Lee        0.423  
779. Shawn Green         0.423  
780. Dummy Hoy           0.422  
781. Andy Benes          0.422  
782. Yadier Molina*      0.422  
783. Darin Erstad        0.421  
784. Rabbit Maranville   0.421     F
785. Rick Sutcliffe      0.420  
786. Steve Garvey        0.420  
787. Barry Zito**        0.418  
788. Lee Smith           0.417  
789. George Scott        0.417  
790. Ferris Fain         0.417  
791. Johnny Podres       0.417  
792. Harry Steinfeldt    0.417  
793. Doyle Alexander     0.417  
794. Willis Hudlin       0.417  
795. Trevor Hoffman      0.416  
796. Firpo Marberry      0.416  
797. George Mogridge     0.416  
798. Tom Haller          0.416  
799. Earl Whitehill      0.415  
800. Charlie Hollocher   0.415  
   191. Rob_Wood Posted: April 27, 2017 at 03:21 AM (#5443375)
Here are 801-900.

801. Paul Derringer      0.414  
802. Ron Hunt            0.414  
803. Terry Puhl          0.414  
804. Orlando Hudson***   0.414  
805. Bill Sherdel        0.413  
806. Bobby Murcer        0.413  
807. General Crowder     0.412  
808. Billy Wagner        0.412  
809. Mario Soto          0.412  
810. Gene Woodling       0.412  
811. Willie McGee        0.411  
812. Rip Sewell          0.411  
813. Eddie Yost          0.411  
814. Von Hayes           0.410  
815. Raul Modesi Sr.     0.409  
816. Rico Carty          0.409  
817. Kevin McReynolds    0.408  
818. Vean Gregg          0.408  
819. Derrek Lee          0.408  
820. Charlie Hough       0.407  
821. Tex Hughson         0.407  
822. Jamie Moyer***      0.407  
823. Charles Nagy        0.406  
824. Joe Nathan*         0.406  
825. Don Wilson          0.405  
826. Edgardo Alfonzo     0.405  
827. Hunter Pence*       0.405  
828. Woody Williams      0.404  
829. Spud Chandler       0.404  
830. Stuffy McInnis      0.404  
831. Javy Lopez          0.404  
832. Josh Johnson        0.403  
833. Jimmy Piersall      0.403  
834. Dan Quisenberry     0.403  
835. Richie Hebner       0.403  
836. Derek Lowe**        0.402  
837. Bill Mazeroski      0.401     F
838. Jose Valentin       0.401  
839. Ed Bailey           0.399  
840. Joe Nuxhall         0.399  
841. Bill North          0.399  
842. Bill Hands          0.399  
843. Jerry Reuss         0.399  
844. Wally Joyner        0.399  
845. Ray Collins         0.399  
846. Mike Hargrove       0.399  
847. Jackie Jensen       0.397  
848. Glenn Wright        0.397  
849. Marty McManus       0.397  
850. Kerry Wood***       0.396  
851. Tommy Agee          0.396  
852. Sixto Lezcano       0.396  
853. Doug Drabek         0.396  
854. Spud Davis          0.395  
855. Fred Toney          0.395  
856. Ken Griffey Sr.     0.395  
857. Rick Monday         0.395  
858. Hank Thompson       0.394  
859. Kevin Seitzer       0.393  
860. Ramon J. Martinez   0.391  
861. Johnny Allen        0.389  
862. Jim Scott           0.389  
863. Earl Moore          0.388  
864. Chief Meyers        0.387  
865. Freddie Lindstrom   0.387     F
866. Chris Short         0.387  
867. Gary Nolan          0.386  
868. Jarrod Washburn     0.385  
869. Whitey Kurowski     0.385  
870. Tommy Thomas        0.385  
871. Dave Henderson      0.385  
872. Mickey Vernon       0.384  
873. Mark Baldwin        0.383  
874. Pete Runnels        0.383  
875. Wilson Alvarez      0.383  
876. Dennis Leonard      0.383  
877. Orval Overall       0.383  
878. Chris Hoiles        0.383  
879. Joe Adcock          0.382  
880. Manny Sanguillen    0.382  
881. Tim McCarver        0.381  
882. Turk Farrell        0.381  
883. Mo Vaughn           0.381  
884. Greg Vaughn         0.380  
885. Jhonny Peralta*     0.380  
886. Deacon McGuire      0.378  
887. Del Ennis           0.378  
888. Tiny Bonham         0.378  
889. Cesar Tovar         0.377  
890. Kevin Tapani        0.377  
891. Jesse Haines        0.376     F
892. Wally Moses         0.375  
893. Denis Menke         0.375  
894. Bruce Sutter        0.374     F
895. Syl Johnson         0.374  
896. Kevin Gross         0.373  
897. Shane Mack          0.372  
898. Dickey Pearce       0.372  M 
899. Wally Pipp          0.371  
900. John Kruk           0.371  
   192. Rob_Wood Posted: April 27, 2017 at 03:42 AM (#5443376)
Here are 901-1023.

 901. Tim Wakefield        0.371  
 902. Lew Burdette         0.370  
 903. Chili Davis          0.370  
 904. Billy Jurges         0.369  
 905. Pete Reiser          0.369  
 906. Ray Kremer           0.369  
 907. Stu Miller           0.368  
 908. Bobby Bonilla        0.367  
 909. Corey Koskie         0.367  
 910. Davey Johnson        0.366  
 911. James Shields*       0.366  
 912. Omar Vizquel***      0.366  
 913. Ron Fairly           0.366  
 914. Bob Meusel           0.366  
 915. Johnny Vander Meer   0.365  
 916. Justin Morneau       0.364  
 917. Bob Watson           0.364  
 918. George Selkirk       0.364  
 919. Francisco Rodriguez* 0.363  
 920. Kelvim Escobar       0.363  
 921. Sherm Lollar         0.363  
 922. Bill Skowron         0.362  
 923. Phil Garner          0.360  
 924. Juan Guzman          0.360  
 925. Roy Smalley III      0.359  
 926. Ray Durham           0.359  
 927. Bing Miller          0.358  
 928. Jonathan Papelbon*   0.358  
 929. George Hendrick      0.357  
 930. Ted Lilly**          0.357  
 931. Tom Henke            0.357  
 932. Joe Dobson           0.356  
 933. Marquis Grissom      0.356  
 934. Tony Gonzalez        0.356  
 935. Frank White          0.356  
 936. Vic Wertz            0.355  
 937. Clete Boyer          0.354  
 938. Chris Bosio          0.354  
 939. Brandon Phillips*    0.354  
 940. Sam West             0.354  
 941. Ken Holtzman         0.351  
 942. Kent Tekulve         0.351  
 943. Bob Ojeda            0.350  
 944. Ken Forsch           0.348  
 945. Orlando Hernandez    0.348  
 946. Lloyd Moseby         0.348  
 947. Rollie Fingers       0.347  M  F
 948. Terry Steinbach      0.347  
 949. Jimmy Dykes          0.345  
 950. Ben Sheets           0.345  
 951. Bronson Arroyo*      0.345  
 952. Mike Cuellar         0.344  
 953. Bill Russell         0.344  
 954. Don Mossi            0.344  
 955. John Franco          0.343  
 956. Gary Matthews Sr.    0.343  
 957. BJ Surhoff           0.342  
 958. Pedro Astacio        0.338  
 959. Lee Meadows          0.337  
 960. Don McMahon          0.337  
 961. Aramis Ramirez**     0.337  
 962. Elston Howard        0.337  
 963. Terry Pendleton      0.336  
 964. Lindy McDaniel       0.335  
 965. Floyd Bannister      0.334  
 966. Johnny Rigney        0.333  
 967. Mike Moore           0.333  
 968. Joe Horlen           0.330  
 969. Ray Schalk           0.329     F
 970. Andres Galarraga     0.327  
 971. Allie Reynolds       0.327  
 972. Eric Soderholm       0.326  
 973. Scott Erickson       0.324  
 974. Keith Foulke         0.324  
 975. Leo Cardenas         0.324  
 976. Mike Scott           0.324  
 977. Bob Purkey           0.322  
 978. Hal McRae            0.322  
 979. George Kelly         0.320     F
 980. Scott Sanderson      0.320  
 981. Chris Speier         0.319  
 982. Red Donahue          0.318  
 983. Edgar Renteria       0.318  
 984. Livan Hernandez***   0.318  
 985. AJ Burnett**         0.316  
 986. Rick Ferrell         0.315     F
 987. John Romano          0.315  
 988. Tino Martinez        0.314  
 989. Dave Stewart         0.314  
 990. Bob Veale            0.313  
 991. Garry Templeton      0.311  
 992. Denny Galehouse      0.311  
 993. Hiroki Kuroda        0.311  
 994. Joe H. Coleman       0.311  
 995. Kevin Millwood***    0.307  
 996. Dave McNally         0.307  
 997. Mike Flanagan        0.302  
 998. Alfonso Soriano      0.302  
 999. Ron Reed             0.302  
1000. Jon Lieber           0.299  

1001. Tim Belcher          0.299  
1002. Ed Whitson           0.292  
1003. Steve Trachsel       0.291  
1004. Mark Prior           0.287  
1005. Dick Ellsworth       0.284  
1006. Bill Doak            0.281  
1007. Stan Bahnsen         0.281  
1008. Lee May              0.279  
1009. Don Baylor           0.278  
1010. Carlos Lee***        0.270  
1011. Willie Horton        0.270  
1012. Harold Baines        0.269  
1013. Bill Gullickson      0.264  
1014. Joe Niekro           0.262  
1015. Mike Morgan          0.261  
1016. Chris Chambliss      0.255  
1017. Lloyd Waner          0.245     F
1018. Bob Buhl             0.243  
1019. Tommy McCarthy       0.239     F
1020. Mike Torrez          0.229  
1021. Bob Boone            0.228  
1022. Paul Konerko         0.226  
1023. Red Ames             0.225  
   193. Bleed the Freak Posted: April 27, 2017 at 03:27 PM (#5443777)
Cool stuff Rob, and thanks for sharing, appreciate seeing the name "Hoss" Radbourn.

Do you have, or did you plan to also do CPASR for Baseball Gauge WAR as well?

A handful of guys to consider for your analysis:
Charlie Buffinton
Bobby Mathews

George Stone
Brian McCann
Darren Daulton
Del Crandall
Orator Shaffer
Abner Dalrymple
Dave Orr
John Clapp
Mickey Tettleton
Jack Rowe

Doug Jones
Tug McGraw
Jim Bagby
   194. DL from MN Posted: April 27, 2017 at 03:44 PM (#5443793)
How do you adjust this to make it fair to all eras and positions?
   195. Rob_Wood Posted: April 27, 2017 at 06:34 PM (#5443953)
Thanks for the comments.

(1) I currently have no desire to undertake comprehensive CPASR derivations for alternative WAR methodologies. People may know that I have developed my own version of WAR for starting pitchers based upon game-by-game analysis of the runs scored and runs allowed in each game. Though sorely tempted, I decided to utilize the BB-Ref WAR figures for CPASR rather than my own Win Values even for starting pitchers for whom I have the win value figures (post 1944 Retrosheet era). Possibly if there are a few players for whom a significantly different viewpoint results from using a different WAR methodology, I could recalculate their CPASR using the different flavor of WAR. Of course, other analysts could undertake the calculation as well as me.

(2) I did include George R. Stone (751, .436) and Jim Bagby Sr. (561, .531) in the CPASR calculations reported above. If and when I have some time to calculate the CPASR for additional players, I will include the players you listed above.

(3) DL: Before you asked your question, I would have said that the CPASR methodology is fair to all eras and positions. It uses the "a pennant is a pennant" perspective that JoeD and the other founders of the HOM project so wanted members to embrace. If anything, I would argue that WAR (CPASR) bends over backwards to be fair with the result that it might not be fair in the end. A simple example is that the overall quality of play dropped significantly during WWII. So when Snuffy Stirnweiss had great years in the lower-quality 1944-1945 seasons, he attained very high WAR and CPASR. But some would argue that from a larger perspective, his achievement should be discounted to reflect the lesser strength of competition.

Also, the developers of WAR have essentially baked in the viewpoint that WAR is the same across all positions. This has been verified empirically over all positions and throughout baseball history.

The three main aspects to which some analysts have concerns regarding this are 19th century starting pitchers, catchers, and modern relief pitchers. 19th century starting pitchers achieve gaudy WAR (and CPASR) due to them having so much influence on their team's success. The success of the 1884 Providence Grays rested squarely on the broad shoulders of Old Hoss Radbourn (especially after Charlie Sweeney bolted). Of course Radbourn's WAR and CPASR for that season are remarkably, unbelievably high. Some people believe that catchers deserve a "catcher bonus" to reflect the physical demands of the position making it nearly impossible to play as many games as other positions (and therefore lowering the WAR figures that they could attain). I am ambivalent on that issue but lean toward only granting a small catcher bonus. Similarly, some people believe that WAR does not properly reflect the value of modern relief pitchers. Again, I am ambivalent on this issue and lean toward only granting a small bonus for modern relief pitchers.

If you or anyone else thinks that WAR or CPASR is not fair to all eras and positions, I'd love to hear about it and discuss the issues.

   196. Bleed the Freak Posted: April 28, 2017 at 08:20 AM (#5444230)
Thanks for clarifying rob, I did a vlookup on a spreadsheet that didn't have the middle initials for stone and bagby, good to see them do well.

The only true hom case missing is charlie buffinton, he seems to make the glut of intriguing 1880s guys.

Do you have a spreadsheet by season that you can share at the hall of merit group?
   197. DanG Posted: April 28, 2017 at 09:10 AM (#5444240)
Rob, just a minor note. There are hall of famers on the list who are not marked "F". These are guys listed by the HOF as something other than players:

3. Spalding
35. Cummings
94. Griffith
101. Wright
221. McGraw
296. Torre
643. Huggins

Perhaps a lower case "f" would be an appropriate identifier for these.
   198. Rob_Wood Posted: April 28, 2017 at 02:30 PM (#5444446)
I don't know how I missed him, but Charlie Buffinton's CPASR is 1.410 which puts him in the mid-50's on the all-time list. Of course, as mentioned above 19th century pitchers are problematic. In fact, I don't even remember ever voting for Buffinton in any HOM election. (Thanks BtF for pointing out the omission.)

As the historians among us know, pitching did not really become pitching as we know it until some time in the 1890's. I suppose we HOM voters understood that and voted accordingly. In looking at the all-time CPASR list, we see several 19th century pitchers not in the HOM including Tommy Bond (1870s) and Jim McCormick (1880s) -- both in the top 10!

DanG: Thanks for the information. I was referencing a list of Hall of Fame enshrinees voted in as players for comparison. Of course, this is a fine line for early Hall of Famers like Spalding and Cummings (maybe Griffith and Wright too).
   199. DL from MN Posted: April 28, 2017 at 03:52 PM (#5444485)
There is no way you are going to get me to swallow that Tommy Bond (with 5 decent seasons) is more valuable than Barry Bonds because he was able to take the mound and not walk anyone.
   200. Rob_Wood Posted: April 28, 2017 at 04:35 PM (#5444511)
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