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Hall of Merit
— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best

Monday, December 19, 2016

2018 Hall of Merit Ballot Discussion

Vladimir Guerrero (267), Sammy Sosa (255), Luis Tiant (189), Jeff Kent (179), Vic Willis (161), Kenny Lofton (151), Bobby Bonds (133), Ben Taylor (130), Buddy Bell (130) and Tommy Bridges (106) will be the top 10 returnees for 2018.

Jorge Posada (95), Bob Johnson (86), Urban Shocker (80), Dick Redding (79), Phil Rizzuto (79), Wally Schang (79) and Sal Bando (68) rounded out the top 20.

2018 - (December 4 - December 18, 2017) - elect 4

Name               HOFm HOFs Yrs WAR  WAR7 JAWS
Chipper Jones       180  70   19 85.0 46.6 65.8
Jim Thome           156  57   22 72.9 41.5 57.2
Scott Rolen          99  40   17 70.0 43.5 56.8
Andruw Jones        109  34   17 62.8 46.4 54.6
Johan Santana        82  35   12 51.4 44.8 48.1
Johnny Damon         90  45   18 56.0 32.8 44.4
Jamie Moyer          56  39   25 50.4 33.2 41.8
Carlos Zambrano      30  23   12 44.6 39.0 41.8
Omar Vizquel        120  42   24 45.3 26.6 36.0
Chris Carpenter      70  26   15 34.5 29.6 32.0
Livan Hernandez      41  16   17 31.1 27.8 29.4
Orlando Hudson       20  18   11 30.9 27.2 29.1
Kevin Millwood       34  20   16 29.4 24.8 27.1
Kerry Wood           24  14   14 27.7 25.0 26.4
Carlos Lee           78  35   14 28.2 23.4 25.8
Ben Sheets           19  11   10 23.4 22.3 22.8
Jack Wilson          12  16   12 23.5 20.9 22.2
Hideki Matsui        36  21   10 21.3 21.2 21.3
Aubrey Huff          30  20   13 20.2 22.5 21.3
Adam Kennedy         12  16   14 21.0 20.4 20.7
Jeff Suppan          11   9   17 17.4 18.3 17.8
Carl Pavano          16   6   14 16.9 18.5 17.7
Francisco Cordero    77   9   14 17.2 14.6 15.9
Miguel Batista       10   3   18 12.7 15.9 14.3
Jason Isringhausen   71   7   16 13.2 12.2 12.7
Brian Fuentes        48   9   12 10.7 11.3 11.0
Brad Lidge           48  10   11  8.2 12.4 10.3
Scott Podsednik      15  15   11  6.9  7.8  7.4
Guillermo Mota       13   7   14  6.3  7.6  7.0
JoeD has the Imperial March Stuck in His Head Posted: December 19, 2016 at 09:12 PM | 153 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   101. Howie Menckel Posted: January 20, 2017 at 08:20 PM (#5387088)
bump
   102. Chris Fluit Posted: January 20, 2017 at 10:05 PM (#5387126)
I'd be interested in hearing some of the electorates' thoughts on Closers/Relief Aces. I see Fingers, Gossage, Wilhelm, and Eckersley got in and I would expect Rivera will get in once eligible. My interest is in guys like Sutter and Lee Smith from the older mold of closers and Billy Wagner and Hoffman in the more modern role. I know WAR doesn't rate these guys highly (at least compared to other positions). Are other voters making adjustments to bump these guys up? Or are you assuming WAR has it roughly right and that closers aren't as valuable as the casual fan assumes? To answer my own question, I do think that the position as used today is overvalued and that relief Aces of the 60s 70s and early 80s were more valuable as their managers used them. That said, I also feel that the modern closer role is part of our game and probably not going away (though Andrew Miller showed in a big way what a relief Ace used in big spots regardless of inning can do for a team). If that's true, Rivera followed by Hoffman and Wagner are the obvious cream of the crop from the last 25 years.

It's the Hall of Merit, so there are many disparate opinions on this. I'm sure that many voters are content to say that WAR gets it right and virtually no closer is deserving. On the other hand, other voters may look at additional stats to see what they have to tell us about the relative value of closers. Some might consider WAR per IP (or WAR per 100 IP), recognizing that relievers' workloads are intentionally restricted compared to starters. Others might look at Leverage Index. I like to check in with WPA. It's not the only stat I consider but it shows that a reliever's impact on an individual season can be as great as that of a starter- though the variance in WPA means that it's very difficult for a career reliever to match a career starter. As you noted, some people are voting for Hoffman and Wagner. You would be well within your rights to vote for Sutter or Smith if you thought they were among the best 15 players not in the HoM. Personally, I think that John Hiller is the best reliever that we haven't elected (as you said, the '70s firemen had a much bigger workload that the modern closer) and that Dan Quisenberry is as every bit as good as Sutter. That's part of the problem with the relievers. There are so many of them and they're bunched so closely together that it's hard to know where to draw the line unless that line is so high that only an elite few can get over it.
   103. Howie Menckel Posted: January 20, 2017 at 10:19 PM (#5387133)

good post, Chris.
and I am not a WAR guy.
   104. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: January 21, 2017 at 12:52 AM (#5387152)
This voter uses a WAR/WPA hybrid that helps RP and cuts down SP innings to make old timers compare with recent pitchers, and despite that and much thought, I am left with these conclusions:
1) Relief pitching is incredibly valuable for a team but relief pitchers are almost never valuable enough for the HOM.
2) The vast majority of RPs are former starters who were demoted to the pen whether at the Big league level, the minors, or in college, and who didn't have the stamina, durability, efficiency, or focus to start...which necessarily makes them less valuable to their organizations.
3) The only two relievers I support for the HOM or Hall are Mariano and Goose.
4) Eckersley was not elected by us as a RP so much as a hybrid; and he would never have been elected as a RP given only his stats in relief. His starting career was not enough to make it alone either, but the larger portion of his value comes from it.
5) Fingers was a huge mistake.
6) Wilhelm is IMO a mistake.
7) Hoffman is merely the best of the rest and not a reasonable candidate because he is far closer to Quiz/Wagner/Hiller than to Goose or Mo. With Tiant, Shocker, Willis, and others still out there, it seems strange to toss a vote at him.
8) Mariano is by far the greatest RP ever without any doubt. He is much much much further ahead of other RPs than W Johnson, Babe Ruth, Mike Schmidt, or Hans Wagner are of other players at their positions. Even still, Rivera would be lucky to be in the top half of HOM pitchers by my reckoning. An analogy would be that Honolulu is by far the biggest US city located on an island.
9) Not falling for the saves and gaudy ERA*+es trap is one way that we differentiate ourselves from the BBWAA as a more informed, thoughtful, and effective electorate.

Anyway, everyone's mileage will differ, but unless all one uses is WPA (which seems insupportable to my mind), one gets all glassy-eyed about saves like the BBWAA does, one chooses to ignore how high the ERA+ requirements are for closers, or one ignores facts such as a pitcher making a long career out of a throwing the same dang pitch all the time and never seeing a hitter twice in one night, there's Very few convincing arguments for any but the very cream of the reliever crop.
   105. GregD Posted: January 21, 2017 at 10:49 AM (#5387194)
An analogy would be that Honolulu is by far the biggest US city located on an island.
Not a good analogy though as San Juan is bigger than Honolulu. As of course are the island parts of New York City
   106. Bleed the Freak Posted: January 21, 2017 at 01:44 PM (#5387298)
5) Fingers was a huge mistake.
6) Wilhelm is IMO a mistake.


Where do you slot these guys...by Fingers being a huge mistake, he rests outside your top 110/115 or more pitchers?
Is Wilhelm top 100? Hoyt is pretty solid, besides FIP WAR, interested in where you place him.
   107. Bleed the Freak Posted: January 21, 2017 at 01:47 PM (#5387300)
PersonallyI think that John Hiller is the best reliever that we haven't elected 


Hiller is impressive in baseball-reference, and solid in baseball gauge, he's completely off the map with FIP WAR, Baseball Prospectus DRA, and Kiko's Win-Loss records...he does well with Joe D's PA, no other pitcher is as polarizing of a case.
   108. Bleed the Freak Posted: January 21, 2017 at 02:48 PM (#5387329)
This prompts a question I had. I haven't gone through and done a careful count, but I'd guess that maybe 25-30% of the players in my pHOM are not in the HOM and vice-versa. I suspect this is more than for most people, but maybe not: everybody has their pet candidates and the quirks of their systems. Bleed identifies a few clear trades I would make here: I'd put Murphy ahead of Gwynn (I realize my Gwynn ranking opens me up to the classic "Any system that thinks Tony Gwynn isn't a Hall-of-Famer must be flawed" argument; let's set that aside for now). I'd put Hershiser and/or Gooden in ahead of Stieb.

In my most recent analysis, Dale Murphy comes out ahead of Andruw Jones, by a small but significant margin, which puts Murphy among the 10-15 candidates fighting for the last 2-3 down-ballot slots and leaves Jones just below that range. Jones would probably be in my pHOM and, if the real Hall of Merit matched my pHOM, so that guys like John, Stephens, Dean, Gooden, Hershiser, ..., and Murphy were already in the HOM, Jones would almost certainly rise up to at least make my ballot (but not pHOM this year as he's 5th among newcomers - very strong debut class).

Am I being "fair" to "all eras"? Specifically, am I being fair to the most recent era in general and Andruw Jones in particular - if I put Dale Murphy on my ballot instead of Jones? Murphy's already had 15-20 chances at HOM election. Indian Bob Johnson's had, what, 50 or 60 such chances (Indian Bob's just below Andruw for me, but close enough that PCL credit - or a tweak to my WWII/pre-integration adjustments - could push Johnson ahead of him)?

Or would it be more fair to say, "You know what, Tony Gwynn took Dale Murphy's spot, and Earl Averill took Indian Bob's spot, and that can't be undone. So let's give that ballot slot to Andruw Jones." Not to the point of saying, "I won't vote for anybody who played before 1980; everybody before then has had enough chances." I'm going to keep voting for Tommy John and probably Vern Stephens and probably even Wally Schang. But for two guys who are reasonably close - where "reasonably close" is, of course, left as a subjective exercise of the reader - is it more "fair" to go w/ the more recent player? I kind of think it is.


I need to put the finishing touches on my PHOM, but I show 29 to 30 players HOM not personal, or just above 10%, 25 to 30% is substantial.

Out: Ezra Sutton, Jake Beckley, Bob Caruthers, Nellie Fox, Richie Ashburn, Edd Roush, Sam Thompson, Eppa Rixey, Bid McPhee, Stan Hack, Dave Stieb, Cool Papa Bell, Dobie Moore, Joe Sewell, Earl Averill, Mordecai Brown, Roger Bresnahan, Ralph Kiner, Pete Browning, Cupid Childs, Willard Brown, Clark Griffith, Will Clark, Bill Freehan, Rollie Fingers, Rick Reuschel, Bill Terry, Joe Medwick.

In: Bobby Veach, Urban Shocker, Art Fletcher, Bert Campaneris, Don Newcombe, Bob Johnson, George Uhle, Thurman Munson, Doc Gooden, Joe Tinker, Harry Hooper, Tommy Bond, Wally Schang, Hilton Smith, Sam Rice, Eddie Cicotte, Luke Easter, Bobby Bonds, Luis Tiant, Tommy Leach, Babe Adams, Johnny Pesky, Phil Rizzuto, Vern Stephens, Orel Hershiser, Dizzy Dean, Dave Bancroft, Jim Kaat, Dale Murphy.

Waiting for your full analysis on Kiki Cuyler, he could be swapped in for Dave Bancroft.

Regarding Gwynn, he needs the RE24 contextual hitting and post-season excellence to remain in my HOF, Baseball Gauge also seems him as borderline in a neutral context, so you aren't off the reservation in my mind with Tony.

Dan R was a Gooden proponent, and Dr. C CHEWS show Hershiser as worthy. Stieb depends on your flavor of choice, he looks great by baseball reference and baseball gauge, but he is quote short by FIP WAR, B-P, and your W-L totals.

When you are splitting hairs, I would consider:
1. Era representation
2. Position representation
3. Timeframe of excellence
Weight these however you like, but Johan Santana is one for me that is in a group but checks boxes 2 and 3 (maybe 1), so he deserves a ballot spot. Doc Gooden hits all 3.

It's against the HOM constitution for strategic voting, so if a player clearly slips through the cracks that you like (John, Stephens, and Schang), then I agree that you want to continue voting for them.
   109. Kiko Sakata Posted: January 21, 2017 at 04:18 PM (#5387370)
I need to put the finishing touches on my PHOM, but I show 29 to 30 players HOM not personal, or just above 10%, 25 to 30% is substantial.


I tried to go through and at least get an approximation for the players for whom I have a pretty solid record in my system and 25-30% was an exaggeration - and a pretty big one. By my count, there are around 150 players whose HOM case is entirely covered by seasons for which I have at least some Retrosheet play-by-play data (I count 148, although there are a few players where it's not clear if they don't pop up in my rankings because of missing data or because my system just doesn't like them). Doing a strict - here's my rankings, take the top 150 - I'd replace 27 players, but that includes Charlie Keller, Enos Slaughter, and Minnie Minoso, all of whom are close enough in my numbers that War and Negro League credit would probably put all three in my pHOM - which gets you to something closer to 15% HOM-not-pHOM and even there, the vast majority of such players are close enough that I could either make a statistical case for them or they could have made it if I went back and did the year-by-year election system that the HOM actually used.

I only count 9 players in the HOM, whose careers were primarily or exclusively 1930, non-NgL who would show up as egregious "mistakes" in my system (I'm not crazy about the word "mistakes"; it's not like y'all inducted Casey Blake or Mario Mendoza).

Dave Stieb is the only starting pitcher I can't really make a case for. This is in part because my pHOM would probably include at least 12-15 more starting pitchers than the HOM.

To segue into another current conversation, I would currently have no relievers in my pHOM (Eckersley and Smoltz are both in it, however, and, as with Dr. C., Eckersley needs his reliever years to make it). Mariano Rivera will make my pHOM and almost certainly be very high on my ballot when he becomes eligible. To some extent, Mariano's the problem for all other relievers. If you give relief pitchers enough of a boost to get Gossage - who's probably the #2 all-time reliever in my system - up to HOM-quality, you end up w/ Mariano as one of the top 10-20 players in major-league history, which I can't buy. Incidentally, my system sees Trevor Hoffman as pretty close to Gossage in value and HOM-worthy if you take the position of "relief pitcher is a position; the top 3-5 of them should be in the HOM".

Position players who are clearly below pHOM level for me, then, are Keith Hernandez, Ken Boyer, Ralph Kiner, Richie Ashburn, Earl Averill, and Tony Gwynn. As I said, if I put together a formal pHOM it might replace another dozen or so HOMers and this doesn't include 19th-C, Deadball Era, or Negro League players, or any borderline players whose case requires at least part of the 1920's. Top 9 guys my system would replace them with (if one populated one's pHOM all at once) would be John, Stephens, Posada (*), Hershiser, Gooden, Dizzy Dean, Jeff Kent (*), Gil Hodges, and Toby Harrah. The asterisked guys are recent enough that they clearly wouldn't replace any of those guys if I populated my pHOM year by year and would most likely still be on the outside waiting their turn to get inducted. The next two guys, then, on my pHOM-not-HOM list to replace Kent and Posada would be Jim Kaat and Dale Murphy. This paragraph is based entirely on my Player won-lost records, so doesn't consider guys like Vic Willis, Wally Schang, Ben Taylor, or Cannonball Dick Redding (who, if they made my pHOM would most likely, in theory, replace current HOMers who also pre-date my system).
   110. Bleed the Freak Posted: January 21, 2017 at 05:27 PM (#5387394)
Position players who are clearly below pHOM level for me, then, are Keith Hernandez, Ken Boyer, Ralph Kiner, Richie Ashburn, Earl Averill, and Tony Gwynn. As I said, if I put together a formal pHOM it might replace another dozen or so HOMers and this doesn't include 19th-C, Deadball Era, or Negro League players, or any borderline players whose case requires at least part of the 1920's. Top 9 guys my system would replace them with (if one populated one's pHOM all at once) would be John, Stephens, Posada (*), Hershiser, Gooden, Dizzy Dean, Jeff Kent (*), Gil Hodges, and Toby Harrah. The asterisked guys are recent enough that they clearly wouldn't replace any of those guys if I populated my pHOM year by year and would most likely still be on the outside waiting their turn to get inducted. The next two guys, then, on my pHOM-not-HOM list to replace Kent and Posada would be Jim Kaat and Dale Murphy. This paragraph is based entirely on my Player won-lost records, so doesn't consider guys like Vic Willis, Wally Schang, Ben Taylor, or Cannonball Dick Redding (who, if they made my pHOM would most likely, in theory, replace current HOMers who also pre-date my system).


My interpretation of your system yields:
Clear Nos - to Hernandez, Kiner (to a lesser extent with some war credit), Ashburn, and Gwynn.
Bubble/Worthy - Ken Boyer with some Korean credit and extrapolating Earl Averill's missing seasons and some PCL credit.

For Boyer and Averill, did you factor in the war, missing years, and or PCL stuff?
   111. Kiko Sakata Posted: January 21, 2017 at 05:30 PM (#5387395)
Bubble/Worthy - Ken Boyer with some Korean credit and extrapolating Earl Averill's missing seasons and some PCL credit.

For Boyer and Averill, did you factor in the war, missing years, and or PCL stuff?


No. I didn't realize Boyer was a candidate for extra credit. I think I knew that Averill was, but didn't do so myself. I will say that my system prefers Indian Bob Johnson, who I believe ALSO would deserve minor-league credit, quite a bit more than Averill. Between that and my system preferring pitchers more than the current composition of the HOM, I'd be surprised if I went back to the elections where Averill was a candidate, if I'd have been inclined to ever have supported him. But, fair enough on the need to include potential extra credit.
   112. Bleed the Freak Posted: January 21, 2017 at 06:13 PM (#5387415)
Agreed, Bob Johnson is a preferred candidate, with Averill at least interesting with PCL credit :)
   113. Michael J. Binkley's anxiety closet Posted: January 22, 2017 at 12:41 AM (#5387536)
This year I'm doing a major overhaul to my system, embracing my inner-peakiness moving from a WAR-based system to a WAA-based one, using a combination of bWAA and gWAA, with the DRA component slightly regressed, and also averaging in FIP WAA for pitchers. I adjust for standard deviation (Thanks again, Eric) and median positional adjustment (yields results similar to DanR's replacement level calculations). To these WAA values I add a peak rate number. Asked on a players best 3 seasons. Finally I add a WPA-based adjustment for post-season performance.

I haven't completely reformatted my PHoM yet, but wrt relievers, the only pure relievers I have in my PHoM right now are Wilhelm and Gossage. Hoyt is slightly ahead of Goose, with both of them most likely in the bottom quartile of my PHoM. Gossage would be right at my projected borderline if not for his postseason bonus. Eckersley and Smoltz are also both in, Eckersley needing both his starting and relief years to get in and Smoltz would be in even if he never relieved. Mariano, primarily because he has the biggest postseason bonus of anyone in my system (literally more than twice that of the 2nd highest - Babe Ruth), he ends up just a little outside of my projected inner-circle line (I'll have approximately 60ish players in my IC), just below Blyleven.

Fingers is close, but clearly out. He'd be behind Wagner if not for his postseason numbers (and Wagner obviously gets no postseason credit). Hoffman and Lee Smith are a little behind Wagner, but none of them are anywhere close to induction.
   114. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: January 22, 2017 at 09:14 AM (#5387569)
Yes, I've got Fingers well outside my top 100-115. My figures aren't in front of me, but Wilhelm is probably between 100-130. Also, I use FIP WAR. For all the reasons other have stated, I find it unhelpful for the sort of enterprise we are engaged in. If I wanted to know whether signing Ricky Nolasco was a good idea then I would consult it.

Greg, thanks for the correction on my hastily drawn analogy about the island cities. Let me rephrase. If Hoffman in this scenario is Honolulu then Rivera and Gossage represent Manhattan and San Juan in whichever order is apt.

And so I very closely concur with Kiko's position about Rivera and Gossage. Again Rivera dwarfs all other RPs, Gossage is the only other that gets over the line, and everyone else also ran. IMO, electing Hoffman, Wagner, Smith, Sutter, Hiller, Quiz, or eventually Pap (unless he goes on a Rivera tear), Nathan, or K-Rod or any of them would be a massive error. I don't generally make the following kind of general, argumentative statement about anyone's balloting and I don't mean it pejoratively, but I believe that tossing votes at the level of pitcher we are talking about is robbing a more deserving candidate in one's rankings of a vote. But that is only my position, and I am not only sharing it in hopes of avoiding the same mistakes the HoF makes.

Because relief pitching is incredibly valuable but relief pitchers are not.
   115. Carl Goetz Posted: January 22, 2017 at 06:31 PM (#5387904)
Thanks for all the responses (and more are still welcome). I tend to like the way WAR incorporates leverage in valuing relievers as compared to the WS reliance on Saves to calculate Save Equivalent Innings (I'm assuming the Win Shares book is still an accurate summary of the methodology; if not true, please educate me). I feel James method is a bit arbitrary even if the results correspond better with my gut feelings about reliever value. My current feeling is that WS overvalues relievers and WAR undervalues them. If the 2 measurements were on the same scale, I'd be inclined to average them for relievers. As it is, I'm inclined to use WPA in conjunction with WAR for relievers (as Chris Fluit suggested). I don't think I'd straight average the 2; maybe use WAR as base level in give bonus points for the high WPA guys (or deduct for the bad WPA guys). I'll keep thinking about relievers and start my catchup work on some of the other positions.
   116. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: January 22, 2017 at 09:34 PM (#5388044)
It's great to use WAR and WPA together. But just remember that WAR already has an adjustment for leverage. So to some degree, if you're using them together, you're multiply the weight of those innings by more than the leverage would suggest alone. As a practical matter, I strip out the leverage adjustment in WAR before I combine it with WPA. That way I'm getting WAR to account for performance vs league and WPA (which does not, IIRC, makes no accounting for anything but the game state) to deal with the leverage.
   117. DL from MN Posted: January 23, 2017 at 11:39 AM (#5388350)
Wilhelm is probably between 100-130. Also, I use FIP WAR.


You know FIP doesn't work for knuckleballers worth a damn, right?
   118. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: January 23, 2017 at 02:22 PM (#5388572)
Should have said "don't use" FIP WAR. Not a fan.
   119. DL from MN Posted: January 23, 2017 at 03:44 PM (#5388677)
Hoyt Wilhelm is around 50 bWAR and 27 bWAA which is plenty to get him into my PHoM. He got a late start to his career due to WWII service (missed 3 years) which means he has a (weak) argument for some minor league credit. He likely would have provided value to a big league team in the bullpen in 1950 and 1951.
   120. TomH Posted: January 23, 2017 at 10:57 PM (#5388841)
Adjusted Pitching Runs leaders, live ball thru 1990:

Lefty Grove
Tom Seaver
Carl Hubbell
Warren Spahn
Bob Gibson
Jim Palmer
Whitey Ford
Bert Blyleven
Bob Feller
Hal Newhouser
Gaylord Perry
Ted Lyons / Hoyt Wilhelm

Yes, relievers are different. Adjust the mean, but add some leverage. How can Wilhelm not be one of the best 50 pitchers in MLB history. Sure, Mariano was better.
   121. Carl Goetz Posted: January 24, 2017 at 09:25 AM (#5388913)
Initial hitters list. Some caveats:
A: Only hitters (I hope to have time to go through the pitching backlog sometime in the next couple weeks, but both weekends are crock full of plans so who knows. I assume 3-5 pitchers will make make final ballot so don't assume top 15 are on my final ballot.
B: Haven't looked at guys like Ben Taylor and Bus Clarkson yet.
C: Planning a summer project where I pick my own all-league teams as well as MVP and Cy Young for all historical leagues. A guy winning more slots on these teams could flip some of the closer picks here.

I use Baseball Gauge custom with Baseruns for offensive WAR and DRA as defensive WAR up through 2002 and DRS from 2003 on. (Note, I'll be using the average of runs based and FIP based WAR for pitchers when I do them). I look at productive career (career minus negative WAR seasons at start and finish of career), prime (best 8 consecutive years), and peak (best 3 years not necessarily consecutive).

1) Buddy Bell: Best Prime 8 and peak of infielders and only Thome put up more career value.
2) Tommy Leach: Best Prime, Peak and career of Outfielders (categorized him there even though he did play 3B). These first 2 are definitely ones I'm interested in feedback on since I'm higher on them than 2017 voters were.
3) Scott Rolen: Wasn't expecting to like him better than Chipper, but slight advantage in Prime/Peak and slight disadvantage in career. Prime/peak wins that tie for me.
4) Chipper: See Rolen.
5) Jim Thome: Slots in very similarly to Rolen and Chipper in my mind.
6) Andruw Jones: Using raw WAR right now though I did penalize him down from #3 for the questions around defensive numbers. I will pay attention to this debate though. I see him as a no-brainer if the WAR numbers are correct but still probably borderline if they are reduced somewhat. He did win 10 gold gloves plus is probably the greatest CF I saw play (I didn't pay close enough attention to Devon White as a kid, so I can't make that judgement) so I can't see a ridiculous penalty, but I am open to being convinced.
7) Thurman Munson: Best catcher available and I am convinced we need 1-2 more.
8) Roy White: Right up there with the top outfielders in prime peak and career. Was surprised to have this high. Am open to criticism.
9 & 10) Dave Bancroft and Bert Campaneris: Best 2 SS on my board. Very similar peak and career, but Bancroft has a slightly better prime 8, but that may be a function of career shape. Bancroft is 9 for now, but I can be convinced on Campy.
11) Frank Chance: Best backlog 1B. Better peak and prime than Thome (and a lot of other guys) but his career value is too far below to put him that high.
12) Bobby Bonds: Averaged over 5.5 WAR in his 8 year prime and put up competitive peak and career value as well.
13-15) Johnny Evers, Ron Cey, and Jeff Kent: 2 2B and a 3B all very similar in each of peak, prime and career. I lean towards all being on the in side of the line, but when adding pitchers, all look to be on the outside of my 2018 ballot. Feedback definitely welcome here.
16) Wally Schang: I have Tenace ahead of him in raw WAR, but I feel Gino has a durability advantage in playing alot of 1B. If Tenace had played all catcher and put up the same WAR, he'd be right with Munson. As it is, I think Munson and Schang are the 2 backloggers most deserving of our attention.

Definitely looking for feedback. That's why I'm posting at this stage. Some of the guys just outside this list (in no particular order): Lazzeri, Rizzuto, Pesky, Bando, Sam Rice, Jose Cruz, Duffy, Sosa, Bob Johnson, Tenace, Posada.
   122. DL from MN Posted: January 24, 2017 at 09:59 AM (#5388932)
Carl Goetz - Your top 4 players are 3rd basemen and I think you have them in the wrong order. I would definitely order them Chipper Jones, Scott Rolen, Tommy Leach and Buddy Bell. I can't fathom how any measurement system would have Buddy Bell (3654 total bases, 836 walks) with more career value than Chipper Jones (4755 total bases, 1512 walks). Did you miss some seasons?
   123. Carl Goetz Posted: January 24, 2017 at 10:28 AM (#5388948)
DL don't think I missed any seasons, but I'll doublecheck the spreadsheet when I get home. That said, there's no question Chipper has more offensive value than Bell, but Bell comes out way ahead defensively (so does Rolen for that matter) by DRA. I list Leach more in OF (1079 vs 955 games at 3B), but your central point is taken. I think its somewhat of a coincidence that I'm coming back this year. If I came back last year, it would have been the Leach and Bell in 2 of the top 3 slots and I'm guessing Pudge in the top slot (though I haven't examined Pudge closely since he's already in). That wouldn't look quite as 3B heavy. I'm just coming back with a high opinion on 2 backlog 3B in a year when 2 obvious Hall of Merit 3B are joining the ballot. These 4 (if we count Leach at 3B) plus the currently not-yet-eligible Adrian Beltre constitute 5 3B who I think have done enough to merit inclusion in the HoM but are not already in. Ron Cey is the only other 3B I would currently consider on the "in" side of the line (and I'm by no means certain on him). Also, 3B is the lightest position as far as HoM representation is concerned. Assuming the Thome, Sosa, and Vlad all get elected in the next few years, we could elect 4 3B and still have 3B behind SS, CF, LF, and RF as well as tied with 1B and 1 ahead of 2B. That doesn't seem like an unreasonable balance to me.
   124. Carl Goetz Posted: January 24, 2017 at 10:38 AM (#5388953)
Actually, my scenario would have 3B tied with 2B as well as 1B and that's if Kent doesn't get in during the near future. Also, while I am defending my rankings here, I certainly can be convinced otherwise. Defensively, I love DRS from Baseball Info Solutions and am absolutely using it for all years starting 2003 (as well as buying every Fielding Bible they'll sell me). Prior to that, I'm a big fan of the methodology used by DRA and feel from my personal look into the topic that its the best we have from older seasons with less info available. That said, if someone has a strong opinion favoring TZ (or something else) over DRA, I'd definitely be interested in hearing the pros/cons.
   125. Bleed the Freak Posted: January 24, 2017 at 11:19 AM (#5388967)
122. DL from MN Posted: January 24, 2017 at 09:59 AM (#5388932)
Carl Goetz - Your top 4 players are 3rd basemen and I think you have them in the wrong order. I would definitely order them Chipper Jones, Scott Rolen, Tommy Leach and Buddy Bell. I can't fathom how any measurement system would have Buddy Bell (3654 total bases, 836 walks) with more career value than Chipper Jones (4755 total bases, 1512 walks). Did you miss some seasons?


Chipper's defense is woeful by DRA, my interpretation of Baseball Gauge slots them:
Tommy Leach 101, Buddy Bell 124, Scott Rolen 130, Chipper Jones 165.

Carl, I will try to weigh in with intelligent thoughts later today/this week.
Dr. Chaleeko uses DRA as part of his rankings and has a handful of adjustments to improve the data:
Fenway Park LF, Outfielder Throwing Arm Value (Roy White is hurt A LOT in this area), Polo Grounds 1B, etc.
   126. Carl Goetz Posted: January 24, 2017 at 12:11 PM (#5389013)
Thanks Bleed the Freak. Definitely interested in hearing what adjustments others are making as well as the reasoning behind them.
   127. Carl Goetz Posted: January 24, 2017 at 01:53 PM (#5389115)
Wow, just went through Tom Thress' (Kiko Sakata?) website on player won-loss records. Very interesting. Not sure I understand eWins and eLosses methodology, but definitely interested in using pWins-pLosses as a substitute for WPA. To my knowledge, WPA awards all events to 100% batter on offense and 100% pitcher on defense. I like that pWins-pLosses attempt to distribute to the baserunners and fielders as well. Would pWORL be the appropriate stat to compare with WPA?
   128. Kiko Sakata Posted: January 24, 2017 at 05:22 PM (#5389326)
Wow, just went through Tom Thress' (Kiko Sakata?) website on player won-loss records. Very interesting.


Thanks. And yes, I'm Tom Thress. WPA is centered on average, so technically, I believe it would be comparable to pWOPA (pWins over positional average). pWORL is relative to replacement level.
   129. Chris Fluit Posted: January 29, 2017 at 01:34 PM (#5391945)
Quick Question: Johnny Damon is nowhere close to getting elected- but if he was going to be enshrined, what cap would he wear?
   130. Kiko Sakata Posted: January 29, 2017 at 08:28 PM (#5392102)
Quick Question: Johnny Damon is nowhere close to getting elected- but if he was going to be enshrined, what cap would he wear?


He looks by my system to have been most valuable for the Yankees, although he's probably somewhere in the 130-150 range among eligible players on this year's ballot for me.
   131. Bleed the Freak Posted: February 01, 2017 at 10:35 AM (#5393908)
Carl, regarding post 121, I have estimated rankings for the guys you have on ballot, plus I added some honorable mentions that are in my personal hall of fame from the off ballot crowd you mentioned. The rating system weights by peak/prime/career are about equivalent to what Kiko had in his key stat from 2016, numbers will need adjusted if you are a high peak or high career voter.

Systems shown are Baseball Gauge, Baseball Reference, and Tom Thress. I also utilize Dan Rosenheck when data is available, his analysis has helped convinced me on a yes to Bert Campaneris and a no to Sal Bando, for example.

I would also suggest incorporating RE24/contextual hitting value into your rankings if you get a chance. Chipper, Munson, Campaneris, and Bonds were outstanding in this regard. Rolen, Cey, White, Kent, and Sosa were good. Others were neutral.

I also check Baseball Gauge WPA added metric for post-season value as a tiebreaker or a minor positive for those who excelled. Munson was quite good here. When Andy Pettitte hits the ballot, you have a guy with a year + worth of post-season league average pitching...for a non-clear cut candidate, that value has to hold at some level.

Please note, in the off-ballot crowd, Sam Rice is a particularly unique guy, long-career without peak seasons, but adjusting the metrics for his arm value makes him an impressive prime guy, along with WWI and or MLE credit, his career started late...what are the electorates thoughts on Sam, any MLE credit (looks like he may have just got started much later than typical)?

And Carl, if you are a Rice supporter, Harry Hooper is a more impressive version of this type of candidate, at least to me and the good doc.

Players: Buddy Bell, Tommy Leach, Scott Rolen, Chipper Jones, Jim Thome, Andruw Jones, Thurman Munson, Roy White, Dave Bancroft, Bert Campaneris, Frank Chance, Bobby Bonds, Johnny Evers, Ron Cey, Jeff Kent, Wally Schang, Phil Rizzuto/Johnny Pesky (WWII credit cases), Sam Rice, Sammy Sosa, Bob Johnson

FL BG BR TT
BB 124 111 408
TL 101 300
SR 130 104 154
CJ 165 65 50
JT 135 125 73
AJ 75 110 147
TM 89 126 250
RW 79 197 353
DB 158 214
BC 171 238 177
FC 191 249
BB 108 154 232
JE 243 292
RC 164 204 227
JK 196 209 127
WS 176 260
PR 170 190 247
JP 197 232 147
SR 104 237
SS 160 131 185
BJ 129 157 160
   132. Howie Menckel Posted: February 01, 2017 at 12:08 PM (#5394025)
Sam Rice's tragic turn

Rice got married in 1908 at age 18. In April 2012, Rice was at a baseball tryout:

"While Rice was away in Galesburg, his wife and children moved in with his parents on the family farm in Donovan. On Sunday, April 21, as Rice took to the mound in Galesburg, his family took to the road to visit friends in his wife's hometown of Iroquois. Shortly after the family returned from their outing that evening, a violent tornado ripped through Donovan. The high winds destroyed the Rice farmhouse and killed Rice's wife, both of his children, his mother, and his youngest two sisters.

"According to a report published in the Kentland Democrat a few days later, "... the house, with contents, and everything else on the premises ... was seized, torn, and whirled into fragments and strewn entirely across the farm. ... [family members'] ... bodies were found ... 150 [to] 400 yards south of where the house was ... all nearly entirely naked, the clothing having been whipped into shreds and torn away by the wind." His father survived the storm, but was seriously injured. "When neighbors came upon the scene, they found Mr. Rice running distractedly about among his dead dear ones in the ravine, and carrying in his arms one of the children that yet showed evidence of life, but died a few moments later."

Rice's father was dead, too, before the month was over.

"Rice reportedly spent the rest of 1912 wandering across the Midwest, taking on a series of labor-intensive jobs. [20] His wandering ceased on January 24, 1913, however, when he enlisted in the Navy. [21] He was assigned to the USS New Hampshire, a battleship in the Atlantic fleet that was docked in Norfolk, Virginia, as a "coal passer", a rank equivalent to Fireman 3rd class."

then it gets complicated.....
   133. Bleed the Freak Posted: February 01, 2017 at 12:40 PM (#5394053)
Thanks for sharing Howie, it had been awhile since I had read the bio.
   134. Howie Menckel Posted: February 01, 2017 at 01:44 PM (#5394088)
for those too numbed by the excerpt, still worth a read. a lot of really good stuff happened for Rice in the aftermath, well beyond baseball.

one interesting aspect is that reporters - with one brief exception - never wrote about the tragedy during his career, upon his HOF election, nor even in the wake of his death....
   135. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: February 01, 2017 at 08:31 PM (#5394349)
I have become a Sam Rice fan in the past month or so. I did a little research now that his baserunning value ages 39-43 is available. When you look at things like SBATT v league, SB% v league, and extra bases taken on someone else's hits v league, his performance at this advanced age is very impressive. I compared it to other late-career players who performed similarly. He maps onto guys like Ichiro, Barry, Jeter, Molitor, and others whose overall average career rBaser in Rice's PA is about 55-65 runs, and BBREF gives him 13 career.

Now run the same kind of comparisons with lefty hitters only, and you can guesstimate his rDP, which comes out around 25 or more runs, but which BBREF currently has no estimate for.

And when I ran my Hooper arm estimates, I also looked at Rice. In some ways Rice'a arm could be seen as better, though I rated it about 70% of Hooper due to Hoop's amazing reputation. I figured it's probably another 25 runs for Rice above his DRA rating (which counts as about 15-18 for me since I use DRA at ⅔ strength).

So what I'm saying is that Rice potentially has like 80-90 runs that BBREF isn't able to account for. He is the Ichiro of his time, building value with low-power offensive performance, strong baserunning, DP avoidance, and excellent defense, especiallly the arm. That took him from a close also-ran to about 14-17 in my RF ranks. If you simply halve my estimates, I still have him over the line. So far he's the only guy who benefits to this degree from unaccounted runs. I can't run this kind of analysis on Hooper yet because we don't have much detail on his baserunning.

The website where my CP Bell article appeared will have a complete write up either this week or next. If no one objects, I will post the link. Again, I don't want to do so and have it be inappropriate. (To which end, I wrote this post off the top of my head, so when the article appears, trust it over this post if there's any discrepancies.)
   136. OCF Posted: February 01, 2017 at 09:00 PM (#5394365)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/April_20–22,_1912_tornado_outbreak

That tornado is clearly indicated and estimated as being of F4 strength; indeed, when I read the description above, I was thinking that it had to have been that high on the Fujita scale to do that.
   137. Bleed the Freak Posted: February 01, 2017 at 09:26 PM (#5394374)
135. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: February 01, 2017 at 08:31 PM (#5394349)
I have become a Sam Rice fan in the past month or so. I did a little research now that his baserunning value ages 39-43 is available. When you look at things like SBATT v league, SB% v league, and extra bases taken on someone else's hits v league, his performance at this advanced age is very impressive. I compared it to other late-career players who performed similarly. He maps onto guys like Ichiro, Barry, Jeter, Molitor, and others whose overall average career rBaser in Rice's PA is about 55-65 runs, and BBREF gives him 13 career.

Now run the same kind of comparisons with lefty hitters only, and you can guesstimate his rDP, which comes out around 25 or more runs, but which BBREF currently has no estimate for.

And when I ran my Hooper arm estimates, I also looked at Rice. In some ways Rice'a arm could be seen as better, though I rated it about 70% of Hooper due to Hoop's amazing reputation. I figured it's probably another 25 runs for Rice above his DRA rating (which counts as about 15-18 for me since I use DRA at ⅔ strength).

So what I'm saying is that Rice potentially has like 80-90 runs that BBREF isn't able to account for. He is the Ichiro of his time, building value with low-power offensive performance, strong baserunning, DP avoidance, and excellent defense, especiallly the arm. That took him from a close also-ran to about 14-17 in my RF ranks. If you simply halve my estimates, I still have him over the line. So far he's the only guy who benefits to this degree from unaccounted runs. I can't run this kind of analysis on Hooper yet because we don't have much detail on his baserunning.

The website where my CP Bell article appeared will have a complete write up either this week or next. If no one objects, I will post the link. Again, I don't want to do so and have it be inappropriate. (To which end, I wrote this post off the top of my head, so when the article appears, trust it over this post if there's any discrepancies.)


Great stuff doc, please share here and in the Sam Rice thread, looking forward to your article!
   138. Carl Goetz Posted: February 14, 2017 at 12:09 PM (#5401261)
Reply to Bleed the Freak Post #131
Sorry for the delay, I've been focusing my baseball efforts on an NFBC slow draft and reading the BP Annual and I haven't logged in here in a couple weeks. Been looking at RE/24 and just want to make sure I understand how to read it. Does this have similar issues to WPA where you are punishing players who don't come up in "big" spots?
   139. Carl Goetz Posted: February 14, 2017 at 12:28 PM (#5401286)
So, if reading this correctly for Chipper Jones and Buddy Bell (career numbers) on Fangraphs.

Buddy Bell wRAA 127.3 RE24 128.44
Chipper Jones WRAA 598.0 RE24 707.41

Both metrics are based on Runs above average with wRAA being context neutral and RE24 being context dependent.

If my above statements are correct, the conclusions I would draw from the above are:
1) Buddy Bell was roughly as "clutch" as the average player over the course of his career as his context neutral Runs above average were basically the same as those driven by context.
2) Chipper Jones added an estimate of 109 runs over the course of his career based on the timing of his batting events.

Is this a reasonable way to read the data?
   140. Bleed the Freak Posted: February 15, 2017 at 08:29 AM (#5402000)
Carl, I believe your logic is correct.
   141. Carl Goetz Posted: February 15, 2017 at 10:51 AM (#5402084)
Would it also be correct to say that the only baserunning credit in RE24 would be SB/CS? I assume batter gets credit for 1B-3B on a single type baserunning events, but not certain. I'm also assuming that Pitcher takes all the credit for defensive events, but also not certain.
   142. Jaack Posted: February 15, 2017 at 11:15 AM (#5402113)
You are correct on all accounts there.

It's also worth noting that fangraphs only has RE24 data going back to 1974.

In general, I find RE24 to be great for hitters, pretty good for relievers and not notably different from RA based systems for starting pitchers.
   143. Carl Goetz Posted: February 23, 2017 at 10:40 AM (#5407272)
I will confess that I am not a huge fan of rewarding so called clutch performance. I believe a lot of that is just random statistical variation. That said, if there appears to be a statistically significant effect over a player's career, I can't ignore the possibility that its a skill. Obviously, Buddy Bell show no significant 'clutch effect' over his career. Question: Is Chipper's 109 runs over a 19-year career (approx 5.75 per year) significant? I lean towards yes since using RE24 amounts to an 18% increase over Chipper's WRAA.

I also need to give Chipper extra credit for his 93 postseason games at .409 OBP and .456 SLG, but I still need to decide on the "how".
   144. Bleed the Freak Posted: February 25, 2017 at 05:39 PM (#5408780)
Carl, you mentioned that you would give Willie Davis another look, as a Baseball Gauge/DRA fan. I wanted to share how the top guys come out in my interpretation of the DRA rankings. Keep in mind that I manually adjust players to incorporate arm value for outfielders, using R-OF from Baseball Reference in the post 1950 period, then estimates based upon outfielder assists in the earlier eras. Values are for a context neutral setting. I adjusted for season length and a bit for strength of league (though this is pretty small, 1950s NL gets a bump, expansion weakened years get a demerit).

Position Players: Bobby Veach 61, Art Fletcher 68, Joe Tinker 69, Andruw Jones 75, Roy White 79, Thurman Munson 89, Harry Hooper 100, Tommy Leach 101, Sam Rice 104 (war credit, could also deserve MLE credit?), Bobby Bonds 108, Buddy Bell 124, Bob Johnson 129 (year of MLE credit), Lance Parrish 133, Gil Hodges 139, Willie Davis (small Japan credit) 141, George Burns (SF) 144, Tony Perez 156, Dave Bancroft 158, Sammy Sosa 160, Ron Cey 164, George Foster 166, Phil Rizzuto 168 (war credit/malaria bump), Kiki Cuyler (dash of MLE credit) 169, Bert Campaneris 171, Jose Cruz 172, Ken Williams (MLE credit) 175, Albert Belle 176, Wally Schang 177, Kenny Lofton 178.

Pitchers: Urban Shocker 42 (war credit), Luis Tiant (smidge MLE credit) 43, Eddie Cicotte 49, Johan Santana 53, Don Newcombe (integration and war credit) 54, Kevin Appier 58, George Uhle 61, Dizzy Dean (small MLE credit) 64, Tommy Bond 65? - adjusting for 19th century pitchers is anyone's best guess, Vic Willis 71, Frank Viola 72, Wilbur Wood 77, Charlie Buffinton 78, Tommy Bridges 79, Dolf Luque (MLE credit) 80, Jim Kaat 81.
   145. Carl Goetz Posted: February 26, 2017 at 12:53 PM (#5408950)
Bleed the Freak, I have a couple follow up questions.
1) What is R-OF and where do I find it? Is it the same as Rfield for OFs?
2) I'm assuming the numbers you list are overall ranking among pitchers or position players by your system, but not certain.
   146. Bleed the Freak Posted: February 26, 2017 at 07:27 PM (#5409106)
Hello Carl, regarding #1, Doc mentions this in his comment for Willie Davis, R-of is a value from baseball-reference for outfield arm rating. For #2, yes my overall rating by Baseball Gauge WAR with personal peak/prime/career evaluation.
   147. Kiko Sakata Posted: March 18, 2017 at 06:34 PM (#5419357)
I have couple of questions about Seamheads' Negro League data if anybody here might know the answers.

1. In their database, they show "Similarity Scores" for Negro Leaguers that gives a set of comps from the white (and/or integrated) major leagues. For example, Ben Taylor's "most similar" is George Sisler.

Do these sims adjust for league quality? That is, Taylor and Sisler are roughly contemporaries (Taylor was born 5 years earlier, according to Seamheads). Is this saying that, if the Detroit Tigers had signed Ben Taylor to play 1B, we would have expected Taylor and Sisler to put up similar numbers over their careers? Or, is this saying that Taylor put up similar numbers, in his league (which was surely of lower quality than the white AL, right?), to what Sisler put up in his (stronger) league? If the latter, what's the right adjustment factor to convert Taylor's numbers into AL-equivalencies?

2. What's the correct way to evaluate career lengths when comparing Negro Leaguers to "white" major leaguers?

For example, Seamheads shows Dick Redding pitching 19 seasons, but only throwing 2,165 innings. His #2 sim is Bob Gibson, who pitched 17 seasons, but threw 3,884 innings. Is it more correct to say that Redding's career was similar in length to Gibson (19 yrs vs. 17 yrs) or significantly shorter than Gibson's (Gibson threw 80% more innings)?

Thanks!
   148. KJOK Posted: March 19, 2017 at 02:28 AM (#5419473)

Do these sims adjust for league quality


No - that is a possible future enhancement
Or, is this saying that Taylor put up similar numbers, in his league (which was surely of lower quality than the white AL, right?), to what Sisler put up in his (stronger) league?

Correct, that is what it tells currently.

If the latter, what's the right adjustment factor to convert Taylor's numbers into AL-equivalencies?

It varies by season - hopefully that will be answered in the future enhancement.

2. What's the correct way to evaluate career lengths when comparing Negro Leaguers to "white" major leaguers?

For example, Seamheads shows Dick Redding pitching 19 seasons, but only throwing 2,165 innings. His #2 sim is Bob Gibson, who pitched 17 seasons, but threw 3,884 innings. Is it more correct to say that Redding's career was similar in length to Gibson (19 yrs vs. 17 yrs) or significantly shorter than Gibson's (Gibson threw 80% more innings)?


The comps are all based on converting career numbers into seasonal comparisons, precisely because data for complete Negro League seasons tends to be much more scarce than for MLB seasons.
   149. Kiko Sakata Posted: March 19, 2017 at 01:57 PM (#5419551)
Thank you very much, KJOK!
   150. Bleed the Freak Posted: March 26, 2017 at 12:32 PM (#5423793)
87. Kiko Sakata Posted: January 12, 2017 at 10:14 PM (#5382753)

Okay, I've finished refining the weights I'm using to rank my players (for now), so I'm going to throw up four posts that will probably be kind of long.

I'll open w/ my weights. To review, I use my own statistic, Player won-lost records.

I calculate Player won-lost records two ways. pWins tie to team wins and are context-dependent. eWins are tied to expected context. This will be my third year voting in a HOM election. For my first two ballots, I weighted pWins and eWins equally. This year (for now), I've decided to go (1/3) pWins, (2/3) eWins. I think there's information to be had in looking at things in context when evaluating the past, but I found myself looking at a lot of rankings and thinking "I think that guy might be overrated by pWins because he had the benefit of playing on good teams".


Kiko, have you decided to stay with a 1/3 pWin, 2/3 eWin weighting?
I'm planning to rehaul my spreadsheet of your data to reflect this approach.
   151. Kiko Sakata Posted: March 26, 2017 at 02:50 PM (#5423827)
Kiko, have you decided to stay with a 1/3 pWin, 2/3 eWin weighting?
I'm planning to rehaul my spreadsheet of your data to reflect this approach.


Yes.

I think the pWins are really interesting - in large part, they're the most interesting part of the system. But in working through preliminary ballots, I tended to find myself with a lot of comments along the line of "He looks better in pWins, which could be overrating him for having good teammates". I also found myself assuming that was an issue for some guys that my system was "finding" - e.g., Gil Hodges, who played for very good teams, of course, and does look better in pWins than eWins, but only a bit so, so that even more heavily weighting eWins, he still pops up as a guy who looks worthy of consideration in my system (Dizzy Dean also comes to mind in this vein).

Another issue is players who pre-date my system. For the most part, historical data (including WAR and its ilk) are more comparable to eWins than pWins. So, more heavily weighting eWins hopefully lets me make somewhat cleaner comparisons to other sources. And along these same lines, it's also a bit of a nod to consensus, since, for the most part, sabermetric orthodoxy says we should look at context-neutral numbers.

But others can feel free to take a different approach. One can build one's own weighted system for my data here using whatever weights one would like. [note: I'm not sure if the article explaining weighting choices is 100% up-to-date. In particular, I can't remember if I added a discussion of what I call Wins over Star (or WO*). I set replacement level one standard deviation below positional average; star level is set one standard deviation above average. I think I've discussed the idea in this thread (page 1): for something like a Hall of Merit, people may want to look at a higher standard of comparison than even average to give more credit to guys who were really good and great versus guys who were merely above average for a really long time (e.g., Sandy Koufax vs. Tommy John).]

Bleed, I also saw your comment in the Sam Rice thread. I'll try to answer it this weekend or early in the week and will probably do so here, since it's more general than specifically about Rice.
   152. Bleed the Freak Posted: March 26, 2017 at 05:20 PM (#5423908)
Another issue is players who pre-date my system. For the most part, historical data (including WAR and its ilk) are more comparable to eWins than pWins. So, more heavily weighting eWins hopefully lets me make somewhat cleaner comparisons to other sources. And along these same lines, it's also a bit of a nod to consensus, since, for the most part, sabermetric orthodoxy says we should look at context-neutral numbers.


Thanks for the fast response, I will update to a 1/3 and 2/3 split also when time allows. I personally like your weighting prior to the Wins Over Star, but this does great if we are underrating peak type candidates (I support Johan Santana and Dizzy Dean now with my slightly peakier/prime emphasis).

Should we use context-neutral values? I appreciate your team wins, context makes a difference in winning games.
Do we use your team pWins as the starting point?

Do we also incorporate metrics like RE24 instead of context neutral runs (data complete 1974 to present)?, or the clutch stat at Baseball-Reference or Fangraphs.
Frontlogger Sammy Sosa is at 381 RE24 contextual runs and 345 wRAA neutral runs at Fangraphs, 385 RE24 and 372 RAA.
However, Sosa scores an appalling -17.0 clutch score, with negative scores in each year of his prime.
Is one more useful than the other, should a blended approach be taken?

Also, I have found the following thread very intriguing:
Players don't play in neutral parks, should an adjustment be made for this?
rrOPS+ - neutralizing hitting performance for home and road player values

This significantly damages Jorge Posada's case, showing a neutral 121 OPS+ to 108. If we want to take just a half adjustment, then ~114.5 OPS+ is the new figure
An Excel file in the link requires being a member, but I can share with those interested in the WAR adjusted figures.

10 Biggest winners in total WAR gained in the HOM and top 10 other eligible HOM candidates:
CRipken 14.7, JDiMaggio 8.5, BTerry 8.1, CGehringer 7.2, GSisler 6.9, MPiazza 6.5, GGoslin 6.4, EMathews 6.2, MRamirez 6.1.

JKuhel 12.0, AJones 6.2, RColavito 2.5, RStaub 2.5, KGibson 2.1, GHodges 2.1, JGonzalez 1.9, BoBonds 1.9, TLazzeri 1.8.

Guys losing at least 5 WAR, HOM and non-HOM:
WBoggs -16.0, TSpeaker -11.9, RSanto -11.8, HGreenberg -9.6, RSandberg -9.3, CYaz -8.5, EBanks -8.2, EAverill -7.8, JFoxx -7.7
LWalker -7.7, FThomas -7.5, KGriffey -7.0, GNettles -7.0, FRobinson -6.9, BaBonds -6.3, MMantle -5.7, RKiner -5.6,

JPosada -12.5, CKlein -10.0, KPuckett -9.9, GCravath -6.9, FLynn -6.2, MTettleton -6.0,
CJones -5.6, KWilliams -5.4, DStrawberry -5.4, BJohnson -5.3, DMurphy -5.2, JRice -5.0.

Other notables: Todd Helton -5.4, Joe Medwick -4.9, Bobby Abreu -3.8, Tony Gwynn -3.3, Sam Rice -2.1, Sammy Sosa -2.0.
   153. Bleed the Freak Posted: March 26, 2017 at 05:37 PM (#5423915)
Reposting from the Sam Rice thread, and is Lonny Frey now the best player without a discussion thread?

43. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: March 24, 2017 at 07:48 PM (#5423365)

Hi, everyone,

There are two more articles pertaining to "missing" 1930-1940s value that we posted over at our site. I thought you might find them helpful because they explain how I was looking at Sam Rice and also point to a few other important names and what value they might be missing. I hope this is helpful, though I do want to be really clear that these are not meant to be definitive. If you enjoy, thanks for reading. If you don't...thanks for reading. ;)

Method. https://homemlb.wordpress.com/2017/03/20/guesstimating-secondary-value-for-the-1930s-and-1940s/
Other players. https://homemlb.wordpress.com/2017/03/22/giving-1930s-and-1940s-players-back-their-missing-value-mojo/


44. Bleed the Freak Posted: March 26, 2017 at 01:58 PM (#5423812)

Thanks for sharing Doc, I was already a fan of Sam Rice, but this continues to push his case.

Significant findings for guys I have ranked in the bottom 1/3 of HOM or top 1/3 outside HOM, with OLD versus NEW CHEWS, and OLD versus NEW ranks:

NOTE: Baseball Gauge and Baseball Reference are reflected in Doc CHEWS rankings, so I have many references to Kiko's Win-Loss records as another important take to consider for each guy:

Catchers
46/40/16/24 - Ernie Lombardi - I had mentally noted his likely deficiencies in this area, this confirms my subjective judgments. FWIW, I ran a study of runs scored versus offensive value and plate appearances, Ernie faired about as poorly as anyone.

First Base
53/56/16/14 - Bill Terry - Kiko, where do you stand on Terry - my reading of your system shows him well short? Michael Humphrey's noted that Terry is credited with too many defensive runs from the Polo Grounds.
43/46/27/25 - Dolph Camilli - #17 on Kiko's prelim ballot, post 88 in the 2018 discussion thread. this excludes MLE credit, how much is he worthy of? Jaack has a prelim at ~#19.
43/43/28/28 - Gil Hodges - #11 on Kiko's prelim, are we slighting the 1950s guys due to lower standard deviations/tough leagues?

Second Base
49/48/17/18 - Billy Herman - I had him comfortably worthy, but he's slipping a bit here. Deserves a bit of WWII credit.
47/47/19/19 - Bobby Doerr - glad he's now a Miller and Eric electee, Kiko's system backs this with a thumbs up.
43/40/24/27 - Tony Lazzeri - a guy I see support for on occasion depending on level of MLE credit, this keeps him below my threshold.

The big find!?
38/42/27/26 - Lonny Frey - whoa, add 2 seasons from the war following an impressive 5 year prime from 1939-1943, solid in 1946 at age 35 and nothing after.
Frey doesn't look to have any serious injuries suffered in WWII like Phil Rizzuto and malaria.
The 1940s are not overrepresented, Frey is pretty interesting.
Kiko, where does Lonny make out with you, like Bill Terry, the data isn't complete, but enough to share your thoughts.

Lonny Frey SABR bio

Private Frey spent two years stationed at Fort Riley, Kansas, where he batted .450 as his Fort Riley Centaurs took the Western Victory League championship. However, when he returned to Cincinnati at the age of thirty-four in 1946, something was missing. “I just didn’t have it anymore. Two years in the service and you lose it. … I was just too old, I guess,” he said


Third Base:
42/43/19/20 - Bob Elliott - holds his interesting but not quite enough status.
41/45/23/19 - Stan Hack - Kiko, Hack looks impressive from what I can tell from your W-L, is this too much credit for the war years?

Shortstop:
48/52/21/19 - Joe Sewell - information too sparse for Kiko W-L records? I had moved him out of my PHOM, but looks like that may have been a mistake? I have a number of 1920s guys (Dave Bancroft, Burleigh Grimes, others) that are really close to the line.
42/42/27/27 - Vern Stephens - #4 on Kiko's prelim ballot.
37/38/38/37 - Phil Rizzuto - this excludes WWII credit, and Doc, where do Rizzuto and Johnny Pesky fall for you after WWII/malaria/MLE credit?

Left Field:
50/49/20/20 - Bob Johnson - at this level or better from what I can read in Kiko's system + some PCL credit gets him a spot in my PHOM.
47/45/23/25 - Joe Medwick - was at the bubble, this docking and WWII reduction moves him further out.
46/45/25/26 - Ralph Kiner - a bit of Korea credit, but shows poorly in Kiko's, a tad short for me, although the 1950s are sparsely populated.
46/46/26/23 - Minnie Minoso - I give significant Negro/integration and have him safely clearing the bar.

Center Field:
43/45/26/23 - Wally Berger - well short in Kiko's, deserving of MLE credit + CHEWS makes him intriguing.
43/44/29/26 - Larry Doby - Negro/integration credit moves him safely in.
40/41/36/33 - Earl Averill - he's short due to no PCL credit yet and DRAs assessment of poor fielding, slightly below average in B-R and W-L puts him as a bubble or worthy guy after PCL value; the literature of the time was a fan of Averill's defense if that holds a bit of value.

Right Field:
44/46/27/27 - Bill Nicholson - intriguing CHEWS, does awful in Win-Loss records; 2 of 3 best seasons during WWII.
43/44/30/28 - Kiki Cuyler - VERY interested in the final figures, a case for MLE credit and insubordination of manager, looks good from the available W-L data.
41/42/35/32 - Chuck Klein - remains close but shy.
40/41/37/34 - Tommy Holmes - HOF level with Baseball Gauge, WAY short in Win-Loss records - your thoughts Kiko? Deserves some if not a significant amount of MLE value.
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