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Hall of Merit
— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best

Thursday, December 28, 2017

2018 Hall of Merit Election Results: Chipper, Thome, Rolen and Vlad Elected!

The Hall of Merit welcomes four new members. Chipper Jones was the unanimous #1 this year, receiving all 30 first place votes. Jim Thome (653) edged Scott Rolen (617) for second place. Rolen had more second place votes (13-12), but Thome had 14 third place votes to Rolen’s 9. Both were named on all 30 ballots. All three were selected in their first year of eligibility.

Vladimir Guerreo is the final electee, with 290 points in his second year of eligibility. He was named on 21 ballots. Guerrero beat out Luis Tiant (240), Sammy Sosa (238), Kenny Lofton (236), Andruw Jones (220), Jeff Kent (207), Ben Taylor (197) and Johan Santana (186) for the final spot. Jones and Santana were the only other first time candidates to receive votes this year.

Others named on at least six ballots (point totals/votes listed) included Buddy Bell (139/11), Bobby Bonds (124/10), Jorge Posada (105/7), Vic Willis (102/11), Sal Bando (95/8), Bob Johnson (89/10), Urban Shocker (87/8), Wally Schang (86/8), Dick Redding (86/6), Tommy Bridges (84/8), Tommy John (82/6), Phil Rizzuto (73/6), and Thurman Munson (62/6).

RK   LY  Player             PTS  Bal   1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9 10 11 12 13 14 15
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1  n/e  Chipper Jones      720   30  30                                          
 2  n/e  Jim Thome          653   30     12 14  1  3                              
 3  n/e  Scott Rolen        617   30     13  9  1  2  3        1     1            
 4    4  Vladimir Guerrero  290   21      1     2  4  1  2  1  4  3     1  1  1   
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 5    6  Luis Tiant         240   20               4  2  2  3  1  1     2  4     1
 6    5  Sammy Sosa         238   19            2     2  2  4  1  4     1  1  1  1
 7    9  Kenny Lofton       236   18         1  2  3  1  1  1  1  1  2  2  1  1  1
 8  n/e  Andruw Jones       220   16      1     3  1  1  3     1     2  1     2  1
 9    7  Jeff Kent          207   15      1  1  2  1  1  1  2           2  3  1   
10   11  Ben Taylor         197   16            2  1  1  4  1        1     3  3   
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
11  n/e  Johan Santana      186   15      1           3  1  1  4     3        1  1
12   12  Buddy Bell         139   11            2  1  1     1     2     1  1  2   
13   10  Bobby Bonds        124   10      1     1           1  2  1  2           2
14   14  Jorge Posada       105    7            2  1  1        1  1     1         
15    8  Vic Willis         102   11                           1  3  1  2  2  1  1
16   20  Sal Bando           95    8                  2  2     1     1  1        1
17   15  Bob Johnson         89   10                        1     1  2  2  1  1  2
18   16  Urban Shocker       87    8            1           1  1  1     1  1  1  1
19   19  Wally Schang        86    8            1     1              2  1  1  1  1
20   17T Dick Redding        86    6            1  1  2     1                    1
21   13  Tommy Bridges       84    8            1     1        1     1     1     3
22   21  Tommy John          82    6         2                 1  1        1  1   
23   17T Phil Rizzuto        73    6            1        2        1           1  1
24   28  Thurman Munson      62    6                  1        1  1  1     1     1
25   37T Hilton Smith        59    5            1        1        1           1  1
26   24  Gavy Cravath        57    5                     1  2           1  1      
27   27  Bert Campaneris     55    5                  1  1        1        1  1   
28   25  Bucky Walters       54    5               1              2     1     1   
29   22  Hugh Duffy          54    4            1        1  1                    1
30   48  Joe Tinker          49    5                        1        1  2  1      
31   33  Tommy Leach         48    4                  1     1  1           1      
32   23  Don Newcombe        46    4               1                 3            
33T  55T Babe Adams          44    3            1           1        1            
33T  26  Jim McCormick       44    3            1        1              1         
35   29  Bus Clarkson        41    3               1  1              1            
36   43T Art Fletcher        40    4                     2                       2
37   31T Mickey Welch        38    4                        1        1     1  1   
38   45T Orel Hershiser      36    3                     1  1           1         
39   30  Frank Chance        34    4                              1  1        1  1
40   68T Kevin Appier        31    3                        1           2         
41   37T Vern Stephens       31    2            1                    1            
42   40  Luke Easter         29    2         1                                1   
43   --  Ray Dandridge       28    2               1           1                  
44T  34  Fred McGriff        24    2                  1                 1         
44T  39  Bobby Veach         24    2               1                       1      
46   47  Dizzy Dean          22    2                              2               
47T  45T Lou Brock           22    1         1                                    
47T  49  Addie Joss          22    1         1                                    
49   50T Trevor Hoffman      20    2                           1           1      
50   42  Bob Elliott         19    2                           1              1   
51T  54  Brian Giles         16    2                                 1           1
51T  36  Dale Murphy         16    2                                    1     1   
53T  31T Ed Cicotte          16    1               1                              
53T  57  Dolf Luque          16    1               1                              
53T  55T Jack Quinn          16    1               1                              
56T  --  Andy Cooper         15    1                  1                           
56T  --  Mickey Lolich       15    1                  1                           
58T  59T Ernie Lombardi      14    1                     1                        
58T  59T Lee Smith           14    1                     1                        
60   43T John Olerud         13    2                                          1  1
61T  52  Nomar Carciaparra   13    1                        1                     
61T  59T Dwight Gooden       13    1                        1                     
61T  53  Billy Wagner        13    1                        1                     
64T  35  Tommy Bond          12    1                           1                  
64T  --  Kiki Cuyler         12    1                           1                  
64T  65T Luis Gonzalez       12    1                           1                  
64T  41  Tony Mullane        12    1                           1                  
68T n/e  Jamie Moyer         11    1                              1               
68T  50T Kirby Puckett       11    1                              1               
70   68T Ron Cey             10    1                                 1            
71T  71T Frank Tanana         9    1                                    1         
71T  --  Robin Ventura        9    1                                    1         
73   --  Willie Davis         8    1                                       1      
74T  71T Carlos Delgado       7    1                                          1   
74T  --  Gil Hodges           7    1                                          1   
74T  --  Hack Wilson          7    1                                          1   
77T  75T Luis Aparicio        6    1                                             1
77T  65T Dave Concepcion      6    1                                             1
77T  75T Johnny Evers         6    1                                             1
77T  73T Lefty Gomez          6    1                                             1
Dropped Out: Dave Bancroft (64), Charlie Buffinton (58), George J. Burns(75T), Norm Cash(73T),
Fred Dunlap(75T), Toby Harrah(68T), Jim Kaat(65T), Pie Traynor(75T), George Uhle(75T),
Frank Viola(63), Ed Williamson(59T).
Ballots Cast: 30
JoeD has the Imperial March Stuck in His Head Posted: December 28, 2017 at 11:14 AM | 32 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. JoeD has the Imperial March Stuck in His Head Posted: December 28, 2017 at 11:28 AM (#5598050)
Thanks to everyone for voting and to rwargo, rawagman and OCF for tallying the votes!

I'll update the important links page next.
   2. Rob_Wood Posted: December 28, 2017 at 01:08 PM (#5598099)
Also extending thanks to all who voted (including first time voters), the talliers, Joe, John, and DL for being HOM admins.

I would add in the intro that Chipper, Thome, and Rolen were elected to the Hall of Merit on their first ballot. Vladimir Guerrero was elected on his second HOM ballot. Maybe mention that Andruw Jones and Johan Santana were the only other first-timers who received significant support from the voters.

   3. DL from MN Posted: December 28, 2017 at 02:33 PM (#5598145)
Congratulations to all.

I like how this sets up Tiant for next December. He appeared just off-ballot on several posts also. I think we have consensus that Tiant is the best pitcher available. There is no slippery slope by electing Tiant. He's the best available from his era and is in several voters' PHoM already.

I also think we're short on pitchers. I hope to see more than one pitcher elected next year. I'll run the data later but our representation of pitching is too low to consider it "fair to all positions". It's going to be Tiant or an outfielder for that last slot. We have plenty of outfielders already.
   4. bachslunch Posted: December 28, 2017 at 02:56 PM (#5598172)
Question: is it three inductees next year? I have the best available options next time as Mariano Rivera, Roy Halladay, Todd Helton, Andy Pettitte, and Lance Berkman. Have done a preliminary look at my ballot for next year already, and chances are excellent only Halladay and Helton will be on it. Currently I’ve got Halladay at 3 or 4 and Helton around 7.

I’ll be exercising my one year boycott on Pettitte, but even if I weren’t, he’d be off ballot around 19 or so. I can’t see Rivera any higher than 21 and Berkman 31 at absolute best.

Maybe other voters will go hard for Rivera and/or Pettitte? Regardless, I’m unsure how no-brainer this crop of newcomers will be.
   5. JoeD has the Imperial March Stuck in His Head Posted: December 28, 2017 at 03:36 PM (#5598213)
We elected Goose without too much trouble. I expect Rivera to do quite well.
   6. JoeD has the Imperial March Stuck in His Head Posted: December 28, 2017 at 03:37 PM (#5598214)
Will do Rob on those suggestions good point.
   7. Howie Menckel Posted: December 28, 2017 at 06:53 PM (#5598293)
All-time 'Votes Points' thru 2018 - those still eligible in 2019 election are in CAPS

[ronw or RickA likely will fix the occasional mistakes - and there surely are some - and thanks for that as always]

for newer voters next year, the top leftovers might be another small group to at least kick the tires on (like Van Haltren, JRyan, Grimes, LDoyle, BMonroe, NWilliamson, TPerez, Traynor, CMays, OCepeda, SRice, Singleton)

quiet year as Willis passes Williamson for 47th place as the lead item

TOP 50, ALL-TIME, unofficial (pts this year)
DUFFY...... 28053.5 (54)
VAN HALTREN 26923.5 (x)
Beckley.... 25856
Browning... 24502.5
MWELCH..... 18921 (38)
REDDING.... 18841 (86) epic battle between these two to be the top unchosen P
Childs..... 18484
Griffith... 17924
Waddell.... 17596
Jennings... 16976

LEACH...... 16142 (48)
ChaJones....15875
Bresnahan.. 14965
Sisler..... 13892
Pike....... 13399
Sewell..... 12769
CRAVATH.....12752 (57)
RYAN....... 12678.5 (x)
Mendez..... 12555
Thompson... 12349

WALTERS.....12194 (54)
Roush...... 12005
Bennett.... 11503
Moore...... 10904
Rixey...... 10789
Caruthers.. 10704
BJOHNSON....10007 (89)
Beckwith.... 9896
GRIMES.......9876 (x)
DOYLE....... 9816 (x)

HStovey......9576
Mackey.......8930
AOms.........8385
Start........8378.5
McGinnity....8232
McGraw.......8145
DPearce......8073
McVey........7985.5
FGrant.......7969.5
BMONROE......7947 (x)

Kiner........7746
Suttles......7690
NFox.........7587
Trouppe......7494
WFerrell.....7259
SCHANG.......7169 (86)
WILLIS.......7125 (102)
WILLIAMSON...7035 (x)
CPBell.......6968
Galvin.......6585

Others in active top 50 (X if no votes this year):

DDean 6061, BTaylor 5516, Rizzuto 5506, Bridges 5491, Elliott 5364, Joss 5065, Tiant 4851, TPerez 4385X, FChance 4098, Traynor 3848X, NCash 3810X, CMays 3803x, BoBonds 3648, McCormick 3539, OCepeda 3465X, Cicotte 3420, SRice 3301X, LBrock 3284, EHoward 2947X, BClarkson 2877, VStephens 2740, Singleton 2723X, Tiernan 2709X, FJones 2636X, Puckett 2613, Klein 2601X, Veach 2472, Mullane 2449, Staub 2396X, GJBurns 2388X, Lombardi 2320, Dunlap 2304X, Concepcion 2189, Bancroft 2151X, Newcombe 2149
   8. Michael J. Binkley's anxiety closet Posted: December 28, 2017 at 10:42 PM (#5598357)
Yeah, I don't expect Mariano will have an issue. Although the electorate has changed some since the HoM "caught up" and elections became yearly, both Wilhelm and Gossage were first-ballot inductees. With my post-season bonus, I'll probably have Mo at #1 next year (without it he'd be near the back of the ballot).
   9. Jaack Posted: December 29, 2017 at 12:33 AM (#5598396)
Congrats to the inductees and a big thank you to all y'all for allowing me to participate.

Interesting to see Willis and Bridges both take sizeable hits. After Tiant there seems to be no consensus on the pitchers backlog.

As far as next year, I see three newcomers who will be on my ballot and three that are in consideration. Rivera vs Halladay will be tough for the number one slot.
   10. JoeD has the Imperial March Stuck in His Head Posted: December 29, 2017 at 01:33 PM (#5598599)
So we are up to 267 players ... The Hall of Fame has 251 players right now, including Trammell and Morris, but not including Foster, McGraw and Torre (who we inducted as players). Nor the 3-4 the BBWAA is going to elect this year.

But the page at the Hall of Fame site says "Club 319". But when you hit the "Search Hall of Famers" link there are 320. I could see this being 321 (Morris and Trammell) but how it's off by 1 is a mystery to me.

The text of the Club 319 blurb says 30 executives, but there are 35 when you search. I assume that Effa Manley, Alex Pompez, Cum Posey, Sol White, JL Wilkinson are the extra 5.

The text of the Club 319 blurb says 22 managers but there are 23 when you search. I assume Rube Foster is the extra one.

The text of the Club 319 blurb says 35 Negro Leaguers and we can't search for them separately, so I think that means 29 as players (35-5-1 = 29).

The text of the Club 319 blurb says 222 players, but adding all of the search by position together, I find 252. Except the 222 + 29 = 251. WTF?

Do I really have to count these guys one by one?

222 (MLB players) + 29 (NeL players) + 5 (NeL execs) + 1 (NeL manager) + 22 (MLB managers) + 30 (MLB execs) + 10 (umpires) = 319. Found it, the one extra is something called Test HOFER page 2018.

More to follow ...
   11. Rob_Wood Posted: December 29, 2017 at 01:46 PM (#5598603)
I always thought Test HOFER was waaaaaaayyyyy over-rated!
   12. Jaack Posted: December 29, 2017 at 02:19 PM (#5598613)
Heh, I was looking for Test HOFER on the Hall's site, and found this page.

Scrolling down to the future eligibles for 2019 and you do see everyone you'd expect - Halladay, Rivera, etc. Even the lesser players in the list are mostly understandible - Michael Young isn't a Hall of Famer by any reasonable standard but he was perceived as a star for a while. But who decided that Darren Oliver was important enough to write a blurb on, instead of say, Placido Polanco or Derek Lowe? The rest of the page seems pretty standard, the 10-12 most recognizible eligibles per year. But Darren Oliver?
   13. JoeD has the Imperial March Stuck in His Head Posted: December 29, 2017 at 03:15 PM (#5598633)
As you can see in the table below, we were dead even with the Hall of Fame, through 2003, in terms of MLB players elected. MLB caught up to us in terms of Negro Leaguers in 2006, which was great.

But they've now fallen behind by 11 major leaguers over the last 15 years. Which is the main reason the ballot is so damned crowded these days.

The gap mainly comes from 2006-13, they fell 11 behind us in those years alone. Since then the BBWAA has made up the one player they lost in 2004 (assuming they elect four this year - Jones, Thome, Vlad are locks; Edgar and/or Hoffman should join them). So maybe this issue will pass over the next decade, as the new Veteran's Committee is at least electing modern players again.

Year HoFM HoFN  HoMM HoMN
2002  189  16   188  28
2003  191  16   191  28
2004  193  16   194  28  
2005  195  16   196  29
2006  196  29   199  29
2007  198  29   201  30
2008  199  29   204  30
2009  202  29   207  30
2010  203  29   210  30
2011  205  29   213  30
2012  207  29   216  30
2013  208  29   220  30 +Torre
2014  211  29   223  30
2015  215  29   226  30
2016  217  29   230  30
2017  220  29   233  30
2018  226* 29   237  30
*assumes 4 BBWAA electees in 2018
+Torre - HoF elected Torre, as a manager in 2013. We have him as a player.
   14. JoeD has the Imperial March Stuck in His Head Posted: December 29, 2017 at 03:55 PM (#5598648)
Interesting to see Willis and Bridges both take sizeable hits. After Tiant there seems to be no consensus on the pitchers backlog.


If I'd voted for Bridges like I had in the past, he would have moved up to 16 or 17. So I wouldn't read too much into the drops that far down. A couple of voters can have a big impact.

My issue is with how the support evaporated for Rizzuto. It took awhile to make the case, and I wonder if the new voters missed out on that.

The main issue is 3 years of peak/prime war credit. Plus the fact that he had malaria when he came back hosed up his 1946. At a minimum, his 1946 should not be involved in figuring out what his war credit should be. But IMO, he should get credit for an improved 1946 as well.

Once you do that, his case looks a lot better.

Throw that in with DanR's WAR showing how great his defense was, and he was a very strong candidate.

He was easily our top runner up in 2012, with 336 points (396 got Cone elected). We had 37 voters that year.

Rizzuto   336
Tiant     226
Redding   219
Duffy     215
Cravath   211
Willis    193
Bando     193
Newcombe  189
Bonds     179
Leach     169
Taylor    164
Walters   164


In 2013 we get the massive influx, and even 2nd runner up Sammy Sosa hasn't been elected yet. So it hasn't really mattered. But Rizzuto's support has dissolved since then, inexplicably to me.

In 2013 Willis passed him, 160-155, we also fell to 34 voters. Rizzuto was still #2 amongst the old backlog.

In 2014, Rizzuto's support slipped more, still 34 voters, Tiant (157), Bonds (154), Bell (139) passed him (Rizzuto had 132 points). Willis slipped back behind him to 128. All of this is still kind of reasonable, since the top 8 spots were all recent eligibles.

2015, still 34 voters, 9 of the top 10 recent guys. Now the backlog is:

Bell      188
Tiant     149
Taylor    117
Willis    116
Bonds     109
Bando      96
Rizzuto    90
Redding    68
Cravath    67


We lost a bunch of voters in 2016, now to 26; but Rizzuto stayed 7th amongst the 'old backlog'.

2017, same, 26 voters; Rizzuto now down to 10th. Guys like Bob Johnson, Tommy Bridges and Urban Shocker have passed him now.

This year, all the way to 13th amongst the non-modern backlog.

I think we have to make the case all over again now. Gavy Cravath is in a similar boat. He was 5th back in 2012 amongst the backlog. Now (again, not counting the newly eligible since then) he is 16th.

   15. The Honorable Ardo Posted: December 29, 2017 at 10:13 PM (#5598760)
I'll run the data later but our representation of pitching is too low to consider it "fair to all positions"

I agree, DL, but we're finding it harder to come to a consensus regarding pitchers than position players.

For instance, Dolf Luque and Hilton Smith are my two best pitching candidates, because the color line influenced both careers - massively for Smith and subtly for Luque. I was Luque's only voter, and Smith (though he's on a upward trend) finished 8th among pitchers this year.

Then, after Johan Santana, my next four are Tommy John, Tiant, Lee Smith, and Dick Redding. At least John and Tiant were contemporaries. It's hard to compare Smith, a reliever in the transitional fireman-to-closer era, and Redding, an early black pitcher with a scanty formal record, to those two or to each other.
   16. JoeD has the Imperial March Stuck in His Head Posted: December 29, 2017 at 11:29 PM (#5598773)
I really like John. I’m coming around on Tiant. I could see getting behind Santana as well.

I should look harder at Smith. The Hall of Fame took him, and some here like him. It’s been awhile since I reviewed his MLEs which I assume have been updated.
   17. JoeD has the Imperial March Stuck in His Head Posted: December 30, 2017 at 12:21 AM (#5598785)
I am still not sold on Lofton and Andruw Jones. Chris Dial for one has said that b-ref and f-g WAR overstates the value of Andruw's defense, and I wonder if it's the same for Lofton. I wish I had more details. DanR's WAR thought the same about both.
   18. bachslunch Posted: December 30, 2017 at 07:48 AM (#5598797)
Pitchers Jim McCormick, Luis Tiant, Vic Willis, and Dick Redding all appeared on my ballot. Tommy John, Mickey Welch, Urban Shocker, and Tommy Bridges were in my 16-25 range and at least a couple of them will probably make the low end of my ballot a few years from now.

The issue here is that we have have different standards for decision making. Given how I see things (BBRef WAR paramount with some OPS+ influence, not devaluing 19th century NL pitchers, preference for career value over peak, not giving strong emphasis on relief pitching, not penalizing or crediting for war or injury or illness or postseason play or minor league service), these pitcher choices strike me as logical and correct. I know not everyone agrees with this thinking, but that’s what works for me.

Should we be starting a discussion thread for next year?
   19. Patrick W Posted: December 31, 2017 at 05:40 PM (#5599129)
I've updated my Election History Excel file based on the current election, and this has been posted to the Yahoo Group for information & reference.
   20. bachslunch Posted: January 02, 2018 at 07:38 AM (#5599427)
There seems to be no discussion thread for next year set up yet, so I'm posting my preliminary ballot for next year.

Disclosures: am going with Seamheads for Negro Leaguers. Preference for BBRef WAR with some influence of OPS+ and ERA+ for the rest. Am valuing hitting prowess at C, SS, 2B, CF a bit extra. Being best available candidate at your position helps also. Still trying to sort out peak vs. longevity, but often favoring the latter. Fine with giving Negro League credit, not presently giving credit or debit for war, injury, illness, postseason play, or minor league service. Am currently treating 19th century pitchers pretty much equally as post-1900, but for now tending to discount AA, NA, and UA stats as possibly suspect. Not taken with giving relievers a lot of emphasis. Will dock 1st year candidates who bet on games, threw games, impeded players of color, were caught using PEDs post-2005 (Manny, ARod), and likely used pre-2005 if it looks like they'll get an immediate free pass by BBWAA HoF voters (IRod, Ortiz, Pettitte).

As noted, I am exercising my one-year boycott of Pettitte. He would rank between Welch and Shocker otherwise.

1. Jim McCormick. Best WAR for starters not in by a mile. Short career, but played in NL except for one UA season.
2. Luis Tiant. Best WAR for non-19th century starters.
3. Roy Halladay. Not ranking him quite as high as McCormick and Tiant, but extremely qualified.
4. Buddy Bell. Best WAR at 3B until this year. Currently inclined to trust the metric for him.
5. Andruw Jones. Best CF WAR. Close between him and Bell for me.
6. Jeff Kent. Best WAR at a middle infield position and hit well, can't in good conscience rank him below Vlad, Sosa, or Johnson.
7. Todd Helton. Excellent WAR and easily the best qualified 1B.
8. Sammy Sosa. Better WAR than I remembered. Happy to give him some benefit of the doubt given his treatment by the BBWAA.
9. Bob Johnson. Best WAR among available LFs.
10. Wally Schang. Among best C WAR, also hit well.
11. Vic Willis. Good WAR.
12. Ben Taylor. Best NGL position player per Seamheads.
13. Dick Redding. Best NGL pitcher per Seamheads.
14. Vern Stephens. I value hitting at a premium position highly, so I'm ranking him here.
15. Kenny Lofton. Not as much hitting as I'd like, but lots of WAR at a premium position.

16-40. Tommy John, Sal Bando, Mickey Welch, Urban Shocker, Thurman Munson, Mariano Rivera, Tommy Bridges, Joe Tinker, Jim Fregosi, Bobby Bonds, John Olerud, Ernie Lombardi, Luis Aparicio, Bert Campaneris, Johan Santana, Gavvy Cravath, Fred McGriff, Bob Elliott, Jorge Posada, Jose Cruz, Tony Lazzeri, Lance Berkman, Willie Davis, Jack Quinn, Harry Hooper.

Various comments. Phil Rizzuto doesn't do much for me (low OPS+, low WAR, short career) -- and prefer him to Omar Vizquel. Bucky Walters also doesn't sufficiently impress me (good but not top of the line WAR or career ERA+). I do not value relief pitching very highly; Mariano Rivera does have a terrific OPS+ but his WAR number places him 21st on my ballot. Am still struggling with where to place Santana and Cravath, but for now am placing them 30th and 31st.

Ranking by position:

1B. Helton, Taylor, Olerud, McGriff
2B. Kent, Lazzeri, Evers, Phillips
SS. Stephens, Tinker, Fregosi, Aparicio, Campaneris
3B. Bell, Bonds, Elliott, Cey, Ventura
LF. B. Johnson, J. Cruz, Berkman, J. Gonzalez
CF. A. Jones, Lofton, W. Davis, Lemon
RF. Sosa, Bonds, Cravath, Hooper, Rice
C. Schang, Munson, Lombardi, Posada, Tenace
P. McCormick, Tiant, Willis, Redding, John, M. Welch, [Pettitte], Shocker, Rivera, Bridges, Santana, Quinn, Cicotte
   21. DL from MN Posted: January 02, 2018 at 09:58 AM (#5599469)
bachslunch - is your WAR seasonally adjusted for the 154/162 game seasons? One of the maxims at the Hall of Merit is a "pennant is a pennant" and most voters adjust older candidates to make up for the shorter seasons.
   22. bachslunch Posted: January 02, 2018 at 10:25 AM (#5599485)
@21: no, not adjusted. I unfortunately don't know how to do this, and if it's complicated I'm definitely not doing it. Also, how does the adjustment work for pre-154 seasons?
   23. bachslunch Posted: January 02, 2018 at 10:58 AM (#5599507)
@21: will also add that I may or may not adjust in this manner depending on how I feel about it, regardless. No promises.
   24. DL from MN Posted: January 02, 2018 at 10:59 AM (#5599510)
Representation by position

C 23 8.6%
1B 26 9.7%
2B 24 9.0%
3B 21 7.9%
SS 23 8.6%
LF 24 9.0%
CF 25 9.4%
RF 26 9.7%
DH 1
P 64 27.7%
Total 267

Outfield total is 28.1%. I could argue as high as 33% pitching would be appropriate. I have targeted 30% in my PHoM.
   25. DL from MN Posted: January 02, 2018 at 11:14 AM (#5599525)
bachslunch - WAR is a counting stat. Not adjusting for season length will mean underrepresentation of players before 1962. The simple way to adjust is to take each season's WAR and multiply by 162/154 or 1.052%. Another way would be to add 5% to the totals of pre-1962 players.

Not everyone does this for pitchers because pitchers generally only have so many innings in their arm per season.

I also like Jim McCormick but I don't believe standard WAR calculations really capture the replacement level of the time before the pitching rubber was set at 60'6". They weren't playing the same game. Then you have goofy things like 1884 where McCormick generates 14.5 WAR across two leagues and his WAA is higher than his WAR for the Union Association. What does that mean when replacement is above average?
   26. DL from MN Posted: January 02, 2018 at 11:17 AM (#5599528)
Sorry, that should read 74 pitchers at 27.7%. 30% would be 80 pitchers.
   27. bachslunch Posted: January 02, 2018 at 12:01 PM (#5599572)
Just did a subtraction of UA WAR from McCormick's number. Even if you give him no credit whatsoever for UA play, he's at 67.7 WAR, a full point higher than Tiant.

As for the rest, I can't say as of yet what I want to do re further adjusting.
   28. dan b Posted: January 04, 2018 at 01:48 PM (#5600847)
Regarding adding Jim McCormick and/or Mickey Welch to the Hall of Merit – from my point of view, it boils down to innings pitched. Having already elected Galvin, Keefe, Radbourn, Clarkson,Ward and Rusie with a total of 15,860 IP, we have already enshrined 20.6% of all innings pitched in the National League during the 1880’s. If we were to add McCormick that would jump to 25%, also add Welch and we would be at 30.6%. Adding just McCormick would mean that should you pick a random game from the 1880’s there would be a 44% chance that at least one of the pitchers in that game was in the HoM. Just looking at the 3 year span of 1880-1882, the inclusion of McCormick would mean the enshrinement of over 1/3 of NL IP. Include Welch and we are over 40%. IMHO, adding another pitcher from this era would move us perilously close to honoring the ordinary.
   29. DL from MN Posted: January 04, 2018 at 02:49 PM (#5600907)
I agree that the era would be overrepresented if we elect McCormick and Welch we would have 74 pitchers inducted and 6 are already from that era. 8/76 would be 10.5% of pitchers inducted from the 1880s. There are 140 years to represent (2010-1870) with 80 slots (30% pitchers) or a little more than one every other year. Any given decade should get 5-6 pitchers, not 8.
   30. DanG Posted: February 06, 2018 at 01:35 PM (#5620404)
Regarding Joe's player count in #10 and #13 above.

The HoM now has 267 players. The official HOF list has 255 players.

However, there are 12 players in the HoM who are not in the HOF's consideration set as players.

These six HoMers are classified as non-players in the HOF:

George Wright
Al Spalding
Clark Griffith
John McGraw
Rube Foster
Joe Torre

These two HoMers are banned from the HOF:

Joe Jackson
Pete Rose

These four HoMers played less than ten years in MLB from 1876+, so the HOF would classify them as Pioneers:

Dickey Pearce
Ross Barnes
Cal McVey
Lip Pike

So after the 2018 elections the HoM and HOF are actually even, with 255 players from the same pool of candidates.
   31. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: February 07, 2018 at 04:21 PM (#5621377)
This might be a stupid question, but why did the HOM elect 4 in 2018 but is slated to only elect 3 in 2019?
   32. DL from MN Posted: February 07, 2018 at 04:48 PM (#5621408)
Elections alternate 4/3/4/3

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