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Hall of Merit
— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best

Monday, December 10, 2018

2019 Hall of Merit Ballot

Welcome to the 2019 Hall of Merit Ballot thread. Balloting is open from now (December 10) through December 19January 7 9, 2019 at 8 p.m. EST.

I’ve posted this the last several of years, but as a reminder:

“This has been an issue in the past, so I’ll repeat it now for clarification . . . the posting of the ballot to the discussion thread for new voters is not just a formality. With the posting of the ballot you are expected to post a summary of what you take into account - basically, how did you come up with this list? This does not mean that you need to have invented the Holy Grail of uber-stats. You don’t need a numerical rating down to the hundredth decimal point.

You do need to treat all eras of baseball history fairly. You do need to stick to what happened on the field (or your best estimate of what would have happened if wars and strikes and such hadn’t gotten in the way). You may be challenged and ask to defend your position, if someone notices internal inconsistencies, flaws in your logic, etc.. This is all a part of the learning process.

It isn’t an easy thing to submit a ballot, but that’s by design. Not because we don’t want to grow our numbers (though we’ve done just fine there, started with 29 voters in 1898, and passed 50 eventually), not because we want to shut out other voices. It’s because we want informed voters making informed decisions on the entire electorate, not just the players they remember.”

So if you are up for this, we’d love to have you! Even if you aren’t up to voting, we’d still appreciate your thoughts in the discussion. Some of our greatest contributors haven’t or have only rarely voted.

Chris Fluit posted this at some point, also relevant and well said.

First of all, yes, we welcome new voters. If you have never voted in a HoM election before, you are invited to participate in this year’s vote. You’re asked to post a preliminary ballot in this thread and then defend your ballot. That last part sounds rough, but it doesn’t have to be. We don’t expect (or even desire) unanimity. But we do want your ballot to be internally consistent. We also figure that most members om this site will have at least a passing familiarity with sabrmetrics but that’s not written into any by-laws.

Second, new, newer and even some long-time voters may be wondering about the one-year boycott by-law. Basically, the founders of the Hall of Merit didn’t want a Hall of Fame style character clause that would leave some candidates in unofficial and perpetual purgatory. The Hall of Merit is about on-the-field contributions, period. However, the HoM recognizes that voters may sometimes have difficulty voting for players whose conduct was detrimental to the game in some way. The HoM therefore allows for a one-year boycott for first-year candidates.

To date, voters have exercised the one-year boycott for six candidates: Cap Anson, for his role in developing the color line in professional baseball; Shoeless Joe Jackson, for his role in the Black Sox scandal; Pete Rose, for betting on baseball; Mark McGwire, for his confessed use of performance enhancing drugs; and Rafael Palmeiro and Manny Ramirez for failing a test for performance enhancing drugs. In some cases, the boycotts meant that the player was inducted with a lower percentage than would have otherwise occurred. In other cases, the boycotts delayed the candidate’s induction by one year. It should be acknowledged that voters with a strong stance against steroids dropped out of this project after McGwire and Palmeiro were inducted over their objections. That’s why additional PED users and suspected users, like Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens, were not boycotted.

However, it was their decision to leave and not one forced upon them by other voters. You are welcome to participate in this project even with strong reservations about PED users as long as you abide by our by-laws.

To get specific: Yes, you may boycott someone for failing PED tests in his first year on the ballot if you so choose. And, yes, you may even boycott a player for being a suspected PED user (although many observers would draw a line between those two categories), in his first year. However, you must indicate on your ballot that you are doing so. In addition, if such a candidate fails to be elected this year, you may not boycott him in his second year of eligibility. You may not boycott any other holdover candidates. It’s a first-year boycott only.

********

Voters should name 15 players, in order. Thanks!

Don’t forget to comment on each of last year’s top ten returnees. As a reminder those guys are:

Luis Tiant (240), Sammy Sosa (238), Kenny Lofton (236), Andruw Jones (220), Jeff Kent (207), Ben Taylor (197), Johan Santana (186), Buddy Bell (139), Bobby Bonds (124), Jorge Posada (105)

Vic Willis, Sal Bando, Bob Johnson, Urban Shocker, Wally Schang, Dick Redding, Tommy Bridges, Tommy John, and Phil Rizzuto were right there with the back end of this group also - some of them have even come close to getting elected before. There isn’t all that much separation here, every vote counts!

Newcomers on the 2019 ballot.

Player Name	bWAR 	WS	WAR7	JAWS	HOFm	HOFs
Roy Halladay	64.7	225.5	50.6	57.6	127	45
Todd Helton	61.2	316.5	46.4	53.8	175	59
Andy Pettitte	60.8	228.7	34.1	47.5	128	44
Mariano Rivera	57.1	272.5	28.9	43	214	30
Lance Berkman	51.7	310.7	38.9	45.3	98	44
Roy Oswalt	50.2	175.3	40.1	45.1	59	34
Miguel Tejada	46.9	278.6	36.5	41.7	149	44
Placido Polanco	41.3	215.4	32.2	36.8	42	26
Freddy Garcia	35.7	136.4	28.3	32	38	23
Derek Lowe	34.5	175.6	28.4	31.4	51	19
Kevin Youkilis	32.7	144.3	31.2	31.9	29	23
Vernon Wells	28.7	186.6	26.2	27.4	52	19
Ted Lilly	27	114.3	24.8	25.9	12	16
Travis Hafner	24.8	142.5	24.6	24.7	31	19
Jason Bay	24.3	162.5	24.5	24.4	47	21
Michael Young	24.2	231.2	21.1	22.7	112	36
Darren Oliver	22.6	119.3	17	19.8	20	9
Jon Garland	22.4	117.5	19.5	21	17	9
Ramon Hernandez	21.6	156.7	18.7	20.2	43	26
Ryan Dempster	19.3	133.7	23.8	21.5	26	12
Juan Pierre	16.9	178.2	16.4	16.7	63	23
Octavio Dotel	15.4	95.5	14	14.7	25	13
Jake Westbrook	13.3	78.4	14.6	13.9	14	3
Jose Contreras	13.2	67.8	13.3	13.3	17	7
JoeD has the Imperial March Stuck in His Head Posted: December 10, 2018 at 07:57 PM | 50 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. JoeD has the Imperial March Stuck in His Head Posted: December 10, 2018 at 08:10 PM (#5796380)
If we think finishing by 12/19 is too soon, I would be fine with stretching this out as far as January 7, which would still have us in 2 weeks before the Hall of Fame voting is done. Maybe having time over the holidays would help some voters, while it's a busy time for others. Some just wait until the last day no matter when we set it. Like me usually :-)

Of course any date would need approval of the ballot counters as well, as they do the heavy lifting here.

I'll post this comment to the discussion thread. Let's try to keep the discussion there and keep this thread clean for ballots. Thanks!
   2. bachslunch Posted: December 11, 2018 at 07:56 AM (#5796475)
Second time posting a ballot.

Disclosures: am going with Seamheads for Negro Leaguers, with some influence of the 2019 ballot discussion thread. Otherwise, strong preference for BBRef WAR with some influence of OPS+ and ERA+ for the rest. Am valuing hitting prowess at C, SS, 2B, CF a bit extra. Being best available candidate at your position helps also. Still trying to sort out peak vs. longevity, but often favoring the latter. Fine with giving Negro League credit, not presently giving credit or debit for war, injury, illness, postseason play, or minor league service. Not systematically adjusting for season length, but am giving minimal non-systematic extra emphasis for pre-1961 players. Am currently treating 19th century pitchers pretty much equally as post-1900, but for now tending to discount AA, NA, and UA stats as possibly suspect. Not taken with giving relievers a lot of emphasis. Will dock 1st year candidates who bet on games, threw games, impeded players of color, were caught using PEDs post-2005 (Manny, ARod), and likely used pre-2005 if it looks like they'll get an immediate free pass by BBWAA HoF voters (IRod, Ortiz, Pettitte).

As noted, I am exercising my one-year boycott of Pettitte. He would rank between Rivera and Bridges otherwise.

1. Jim McCormick. Best WAR for starters not in by a mile; even removing all his UA-earned WAR leaves him a point up on Tiant. Short career, but played in NL except for one UA season.
2. Luis Tiant. Best WAR for non-19th century starters.
3. Roy Halladay. Not ranking him quite as high as McCormick and Tiant, but extremely qualified.
4. Buddy Bell. Best WAR at 3B. Currently inclined to trust the metric for him.
5. Andruw Jones. Best CF WAR. Close between him and Bell for me.
6. Jeff Kent. Best WAR at a middle infield position and hit well, can't in good conscience rank him below Helton, Sosa, or Johnson.
7. Todd Helton. Excellent WAR and easily the best qualified 1B.
8. Dick Redding. Best NGL pitcher per Seamheads.
9. Ben Taylor. Best NGL position player per Seamheads.
10. Bob Johnson. Best WAR among available LFs.
11. Wally Schang. Among best C WAR, also hit well.
12. Vic Willis. Good WAR.
13. Sammy Sosa. Better WAR than I remembered. Happy to give him some benefit of the doubt given his treatment by the BBWAA.
14. Vern Stephens. I value hitting at a premium position highly, so I'm ranking him here.
15. Kenny Lofton. Not as much hitting as I'd like, but lots of WAR at a premium position.

16-40. Tommy John, Sal Bando, Mickey Welch, Urban Shocker, Ernie Lombardi, Thurman Munson, Mariano Rivera, Tommy Bridges, Joe Tinker, Jim Fregosi, Bobby Bonds, John Olerud, Luis Aparicio, Bert Campaneris, Johan Santana, Gavvy Cravath, Bob Elliott, Tony Lazzeri, Jorge Posada, Jose Cruz, Fred McGriff, Jack Quinn, Harry Hooper, Lance Berkman, Willie Davis.

Various comments. Have moved Redding and Taylor up a few slots based on the 2019 ballot discussion thread, may revisit placement on future ballots. Phil Rizzuto doesn't do much for me (low OPS+, low WAR, short career). Am still struggling with where to place Santana and Cravath, but for now have them 30th and 31st. Bonds (26th) and Posada (34th) are in my top 40, but off ballot. I do not value relief pitching very highly; Mariano Rivera does have a terrific ERA+ but his WAR number places him 22nd on my ballot. Lance Berkman is also off ballot for me (39th), just making it into my top 40. Roy Oswalt and Miguel Tejada are outside my top 40, the former significantly so.

Ranking by position:

1B. Helton, Taylor, Olerud, McGriff
2B. Kent, Lazzeri, Evers, Phillips
SS. Stephens, Tinker, Fregosi, Aparicio, Campaneris, Tejada
3B. Bell, Bando, Elliott, Cey, Ventura
LF. B. Johnson, J. Cruz, Berkman, J. Gonzalez
CF. A. Jones, Lofton, W. Davis, Lemon
RF. Sosa, Bonds, Cravath, Hooper, Rice
C. Schang, Lombardi, Munson, Posada, Tenace
P. McCormick, Tiant, Halliday, Redding, Willis, John, M. Welch, Shocker, Rivera, [Pettitte], Bridges, Santana, Quinn, Cicotte.
   3. DL from MN Posted: December 11, 2018 at 10:43 AM (#5796566)
2019 Ballot

My list is loaded with pitchers. This is because I target ~30% pitchers in my pHoM and the current HoM makeup is at least 6 pitchers short of that.

1) Dick Redding - New MLEs move him up from 32nd place to 1st and I'm only splitting the difference between the old and new MLE. PHoM 2008
2) Mariano Rivera - Tremendous postseason value moves him above Halladay - PHoM 2019
3) Roy Halladay - PHoM 2019
4) Tommy Bridges - PHoM 1958
5) Luis Tiant - PHoM 1991
6) Phil Rizzuto - top position player available, gets WWII credit, PHoM 1967
7) Johan Santana - PHoM 2018
8) Gavy Cravath - best available OF, 154 game seasons, low run scoring environment (low STDEV), several seasons minor league credit, PHoM 1927
9) Roy Oswalt - PHoM in 2019. 3rd member of my PHoM this year. Good work in the postseason
10) Urban Shocker - WWI credit, good hitter for a pitcher, PHoM 1968
11) Tommy John - PHoM 1995
12) Bucky Walters - PHoM 1972
13) Bob Johnson - PCL credit, PHoM 1986
14) Bert Campaneris - PHoM 1991
15) Wally Schang - best C available, PHoM 1987

16) Ben Taylor - PHoM 1973
17) Brian Giles
18) Dave Bancroft - PHoM 1976
19) Norm Cash - PHoM 1997
20) Kevin Appier - PHoM 2009
21) Don Newcombe - PHoM 2004
22) Jorge Posada
23) Johnny Pesky - PHoM 2004
24) Andy Pettitte
25) Jeff Kent
26) Bus Clarkson - Mexican League, Minor League and Negro League credit, PHoM 1967

27-30) Wilbur Cooper, Gene Tenace, Sammy Sosa, Babe Adams
31-35) Burleigh Grimes, Dave Concepcion, Tommy Leach PHoM, Dizzy Trout, Dwight Gooden
36) Kenny Lofton
53) Hilton Smith - PHoM 1987, new numbers do not help his case. Falls as far as Redding rises.
61) Bobby Bonds
67) Buddy Bell
71) Todd Helton
77) Lance Berkman
86) Andruw Jones
106) Miguel Tejada
159) Harold Baines - yes, there are over 150 better people to choose than Harold Baines
168) Lee Smith
192) Trevor Hoffman - but they're even worse at evaluating pitchers
   4. progrockfan Posted: December 11, 2018 at 10:56 AM (#5796572)
159) Harold Baines - yes, there are over 150 better people to choose than Harold Baines
168) Lee Smith
192) Trevor Hoffman - but they're even worse at evaluating pitchers
L O L

The best humour is the truest humour.
   5. Carl Goetz Posted: December 11, 2018 at 01:50 PM (#5796689)
"1. Jim McCormick. Best WAR for starters not in by a mile; even removing all his UA-earned WAR leaves him a point up on Tiant. Short career, but played in NL except for one UA season.
2. Luis Tiant. Best WAR for non-19th century starters."

I'd note that even including McCormick's UA numbers, McCormick averaged 3.56 WAR /200IPs (BBRef WAR) while Tiant averaged 3.79/200. McCormick's teams were much more reliant on his fielders to prevent runs than Tiant's; that's just how pitching was back then. Tiant's K/9 rate was almost twice McCormick's. It is was it is, but it doesn't change the fact that Tiant was more responsible for the Outs he got than McCormick was for his. I'd argue a lot of McCormick's WAR total is reliant on the obscene number of innings that McCormick (and many others at the time) pitched. It was easier to throw a lot of innings when the mound was 10.5 feet closer and you could throw a pitch that looked fast to the batter with much less effort.
I also look at WAA and WAG on Baseball Gauge as peak measurements (as well as incorporating FIP as 25% of pitching WAR) and Tiant actually comes out a couple of Wins ahead of McCormick in WAA and beats him about 16-4 in WAG. And this is again without adjusting for McCormick's UA time which is over half his WAG. By this system, McCormick was only about 1.35 Wins above an average pitcher per 200 innings while Tiant was around 1.8. So its somewhat clear to me that Tiant stood out more from his average contemporaries and from solidly above average contemporaries than McCormick did from his. Jacob deGrom's 10 WAR this year looks comparable to some of McCormick's best seasons on its surface. But once you factor in that McCormick threw well over twice the innings to get there, its not even close. deGrom's season in 2018 was epic while much of McCormick's record was well within the norms of above average to very good pitchers of his day.
Also, his teams did not perform well until he spent 2 years near the end of his career with an absolutely loaded Chicago team. Prior to that, His teams averaged 26 Games out in the standings.....in relatively short seasons by today's standards. If he stood out so much as a pitcher, and pitchers were so valuable then, why were his teams so terrible? Even on Chicago, John Clarkson was clearly superior; and a guy named Jocko Flynn had a better ERA in 1886 as well.
Just my 2 cents, but I don't even have McCormick (or any other unelected pre-1893 pitchers) as close to my ballot.
   6. karlmagnus Posted: December 12, 2018 at 02:41 PM (#5797145)
Strong new class again, especially among pitchers. Helton and Berkman both on the ballot, around the middle, Tejada not too far off. By my metric of pitcher points, Rivera is #1, and Halladay slots above Cicotte at #3, while Pettite and Oswalt are off ballot, but in Pettite’s case only just off.

1. Mariano Rivera. The best closer of all time, except possibly Hoyt Wilhelm, although by my metric of pitcher points he has 147.5, beating Hoyt’s 126.2. 1283 IP at an ERA+ of 205 (Pitcher points = IP x (ERA+-90)). The PP metric puts him below Maddux, R Johnson and Pedro, but not all that far below, and above Carlton, Glavine and Mussina.

2. Addie Joss. I’m now even more convinced I missed him earlier, and that adjusting innings down for dead ball pitchers is illegitimate. 2327 IP at an ERA+ of 142. 160-97 by age 30. If you assume the rest of his career would have been 1800 IP, 120-90 with an ERA+ of 110 (somewhat conservative, assuming you boost his last sick season, though pitchers didn’t last as long as they did later) then 50% credit would put him at 3227IP, 220-142, with ERA+ of 130. 25% credit puts him at 2777 IP, 190-120, with ERA+ of 136. Substantially better than Koufax. OPS+20. Electorate needs to take him more seriously. 121PP.

3. Roy Halladay. 2749IP @131 gives him 112.7 PP, putting him below Joss and above Cicotte.

4. Eddie Cicotte. Only 208-149 and an ERA+ of 123, but 3223 IP, more than Waddell and should get about 25% of the bonus for the 300-win career he should have had (he was, after all, a knuckleballer, who tend to peak late.) Much better than the 20s glut – only loses to Welch on longevity – Newhouser a close comp, but Cicotte had a longer career. Successfully cursed Red Sox AND White Sox for over 8 decades! 106PP

5. Jeff Kent 2461 hits @123, but he was a 2B. Hence just ahead of Ernie Lombardi. TB+BB/PA .529 TB+BB/Outs .784.

6. Ernie Lombardi. Up a bit more; we’re forgetting him. Berra closely comparable. 2137 hits, normalized to a 130 game season, and an OPS+ of 125 makes him a little better than Schang, but some of it was during the war years and he fielded badly. TB+BB/PA .492, TB+BB/Outs .719., the ratio between the two very low because of strikeouts, I assume. Plus a great nickname!

7. Nomar Garciaparra Only 1747 hits, but at 124OPS+ and he was a shortstop mostly. TB+BB/PA .541, TB+BB/Outs .814. Statistically just ahead of Stephens and will hopefully slip into the HOM in a quiet year.

8. Lance Berkman. Short career, but very high quality. 1905 hits@144. TB+BB/PA .600, TB+BB/Outs .969. When you account for Houston vs Colorado, you can see he was considerably better than Helton, but not for as long. When you adjust for the different positions (25 OPS points) comparable to Garciaparra, Stephens and Posada; exceptional hitter for a short career.

9. Jorge Posada 1774 hits, normalized to a 130-game season, with OPS+ of 121. TB+BB/PA .535 TB+BB/Outs .817. Short career, even after normalization, so he’s just below Nomar and ahead of Stephens (Catcher and SS both worth about 25 points of OPS+ in my system.)

10. Vern Stephens. Short career – only 1859 hits, but comparing him to Reese he was much better, and not far short of Doerr. TB+BB/PA .508, TB+BB/Outs .756. OPS+ 119 Best season 1944, however.

11. Fred McGriff 2497 hits @134. TB+BB/PA .566 TB+BB/Outs .873 Slightly better than I had expected, and fully ballot-worthy, halfway up as we’ve cleared out the stronger backloggers.

12. Todd Helton 2519 hits@133. TB+BB/PA .575 TB+BB/Outs .978, which is better than McGriff, but Colorado and the sillyball era inflate him. Looks very comparable to McGriff to me; above the borderline for HOM but not by very much.

13. Wally Schang. When you normalize his career to 130 game seasons for the first 18 years, as I do for catchers, he gets to 1941 hits, more than Groh at an OPS+ of 117, very similar. Furthermore, TB+BB/PA=.455, TB+BB/Outs=.728, also significantly better than Groh, over very close to the same period. And he was a catcher, more difficult than 3B.

14. Mickey Welch. UER were 43.37% of total runs allowed for Mickey, compared to about 40% with all his HOM contemporaries except Galvin (who started earlier, anyway.) Hence his ERA+, his weakness anyway, overstates his value; in spite of 307-210 he was primarily an innings-eater. 4802IP. Will now be on and off ballot. 115PP, which elevates him a bit

15. Tommy Bridges “Top-10” rule caused me to look at him again. 194-138, 2826IP, but at a very high 126 OPS+. 102PP, above John, Leever and Mays, so slots in here.
   7. karlmagnus Posted: December 12, 2018 at 02:41 PM (#5797147)
OFF BALLOT

16. Tommy John 288-231, 4710IP@111. Infinitesimally below Sutton, better than Kaat. 99PP

17 Johan Santana 139-78. Only 2025IP but at 136 ERA+ Very short career but top quality 93PP slots him here

18. Andy Pettite 3316IP@117. 89.5 pitcher points. Will slip into the HOM in a weak year if others haven’t already elected him.


19. Sam Leever. Pity he wasn’t able to start at the normal time; 2 more years would have made him a NB. Only 2660 innings at an ERA+ of 123, but was blocked till 27 by the one-league 1890s and having a steady job as a schoolteacher. Believe he needs to be looked at seriously by others, and included in pitcher analysis. Mild plus for high level of moral probity. Only 88PP, which drops him a bit

20. Carl Mays Had slipped down too far. 3021 innings at 119, 207-126 and 83 OPS+ Others should look at him more closely. 88PP

21. Luis Tiant 229-172. 3486 IP at 114. ERA+ a little low, but W/L good. He’s not top tier, but just a little better than Pierce. Big psychic plus for Red Sox affiliation. Looking at Reuschel, a little overplaced so have slipped him down. 84PP

22. Elmer Smith. Deduct 10% from Elmer's Western League 1890 and 1891 batting and slugging percentages we get 301/461 and 284/431 respectively. Comparing against the PL of 1890 gives an OPS+ of about 130, against the NL of 1891 gives an OPS+ of about 139. That gives him 14 years of full-time play; adjust those to 130 game seasons (which I did for 19th century players) gives him about 2140 hits at an OPS+ of 128-129 plus a pitching record of about 1400IP at an ERA+ of 113 and a W/L of about 96-72. Elmer baby, you're on my ballot, albeit towards the bottom of it. Only 97 years late.

23. Sammy Sosa 2408 hits @128OPS+. Not as good a hitter as Piazza, and without the catcher bonus. Doesn't have Elmer Smith's pitching, but a longer career than Frank Howard (though not as good) so goes here, though this may be a few places too high. TB+BB/PA .569, TB+BB/Outs .830.

24. Carlos Delgado 2038 hits@138 OPS+ TB+BB/PA.587 TB+BB/Outs.925. With a longer career he's Sheffield or McGriff.

25. Frank Howard Very slightly better than Kiner – significantly longer career. Underrated by history, but down a little when I look at Belle. OPS+ 142 for 1774 hits. TB+BB/PA .546, TB+BB/Outs .805 in a pitchers’ park and era.

26. Hugh Duffy. We don’t have enough Beaneaters! However he’s not quite as good as Elmer Smith.

27. Rusty Staub. 2716 hits at OPS+124. TB+BB/PA .484, TB+BB/Outs .724. Not quite as good as Beckley, for not quite as long.

28. George van Haltren. Had slipped too far at #44; we need more 90s stars, but he was significantly below Elmer Smith, either as hitter or pitcher.

29. Fred Lynn. Underrated, considerably better than Rice or Hernandez. 1960 hits at 130, but bonus for playing CF. TB+BB/PA .531, TB+BB/Outs .791. Lovely player to watch, and absolutely top-drawer at his best.

30. Miguel Tejada. 2408 hits@108. Almost all career SS, so that pushes him up, plus it was quite a long career. Off the ballot but not too far off, might make it in a down year.

31. Bernie Williams 2336 hits @125. Needs either a bit more quality or a bit more length. Just a smidgen less than Fred Lynn, who was also a CF (and who I’d MUCH rather see in!) TB+BB/PA .533 TB+BB/Outs .815, in a harder hitting era than Lynn.

32. Albert Belle 1726 hits @143. Short career, not quite Frank Howard but Frank was a little high. TB+BB/PA .597 TB+BB/Outs .896

33. Vic Willis Had slipped too far, but not better than those above him.

34. Gavvy Cravath 1134 hits@150. Add 50% to career and deduct 5 points for more years in early career makes him 1699 hits @145, still a very short career, but comparable to Hack. TB+BB/PA .527, TB+BB/Outs .835.

35. Hack Wilson. TB+BB/PA = .588, TB+BB/Outs = .954, OPS+ 144. (he does appear to have known about BB, unlike some others.) Very short career, but quality too good to ignore.

36. Chuck Klein. Shortish career but very good one. Similar player to Beckwith, beats Hack on career length, but Hack was better. TB+BB/PA .575, TB+BB/Outs .909, but only 2076 hits. OPS+137.

37. Indian Bob Johnson. Very similar career to Klein but infinitesimally less good. TB+BB/PA .569, TB+BB/Outs .890., only 2051 hits. OPS+138

38. Brian Downing. 2099 hits at 122 plus he caught about 1/3 of his games. TB+BB/PA.487 TB+BB/Outs.741

39. Julio Franco. Better hitter than I had remembered and long career, mostly SS/2B. 2586 hits @111 OPS+ TB+BB/PA .466, TB+BB/Outs .686. Just a smidgen better than Perez, I think.

40. Tony Perez. Close to Staub but below him. 2732 hits at 122. TB+BB/PA .502, TB+BB/Outs .731.
41. Bill Madlock.
42. Toby Harrah
43. Roy Oswalt 2245IP @127, 83PP slots him here, not that far below Pettitte; distinctions are fine this far down the ballot.
44. Ben Taylor. Not all that far below Beckley and better than Van Haltren.
45. Jim Kaat 77PP
46. Orlando Cepeda
47. Norm Cash
48. Jim Rice
49. (N/A-12-12-14-N/A) Tony Lazzeri
50. Cesar Cedeno
51. Sam Rice
52. John Olerud With 2239 hits@128 playing 1B he’s somewhere about here.
53. Lou Brock
54. Mickey Vernon
55. Thurmon Munson
56. Sal Maglie.
57. Burleigh Grimes.
58. Heinie Manush
59. Mike Tiernan
60. Bob Elliott
61. Levi Meyerle.
62. Chuck Finley Obscure and slightly mediocre 200-173, but 3197 IP @115. Just below Reuschel and Tiant. Down a bit – I think 120ERA+ has got easier since ’90. 80PP
63. Jack Clark. As good as Reggie Smith but not for as long. 1826 hits@137OPS+, TB+BB .529, TB+BB/Outs .845
64. Harry Wright.
65. Harold Baines 2866 hits @120. TB+BB/PA .511 TB+BB/Outs .757. Lower than Staub and Perez.
66. Dennis Martinez 3999IP@106, 245-193. A lesser Kaat.
67. Jimmy Key
68. Dave Parker.
69. Jimmy Ryan
70. Gene Tenace
71. Kiki Cuyler
72. Deacon McGuire
73. Jerry Koosman.
74. Boog Powell
75. Ken Singleton.
76. Bucky Walters 198-160, 3104IP at 115 certainly doesn’t make the ballot, but should be on the consideration set, so here he is. Less than Tiant or Reuschel. 78PP
77. Sal Bando. 1790 hits at 119 Very short career, so even with 3B bonus he doesn't make it.
78. Jim Fregosi.
79. Jack Quinn
80. Juan Gonzalez
81. Tony Mullane
82. Ron Cey
83. Jose Canseco.
84. Pie Traynor
85. Jim McCormick
86. Dick Redding. My punt is 3200 innings at 114 ERA+ for a record of 207-159, i.e. same quality as Chris but a little shorter. About here looks right – a little below Grimes (longer career) and Maglie (better quality.)
87. Joe Judge
88. Andruw Jones 1933 hits at 111, not enough quality even though he was a CF (and I don’t buy the “best ever” metrics.) TB+BB/PA.528 TB+BB/Outs .764, low ratings in juiced years.
89. Spotswood Poles.
90. Buddy Bell. Nowhere near a good enough hitter
91. Larry Doyle
92. Kirby Puckett
93. Tony Fernandez. Turn him into an outfielder and he’s Kirby, so here he is. 2276 hits @101, TB+BB/PA .438 TB+BB/Outs .634
94. Ellis Burks 2107 hits @126; TB+BB/PA .548 TB+BB/Outs .820. Just within consideration set, rather than just outside it. Not that it matters.
95. Curt Simmons
96. Waite Hoyt.
97. Harry Hooper.
98. Vada Pinson
99. Gil Hodges
100. Jules Thomas.
101. Rico Carty.
102. Wilbur Cooper
103. Bruce Petway.
104. Jack Clements
105. Frank Tanana
106. Don Mattingley.
107. Orel Hershiser 204-150, 3130 IP@112. Not quite enough 69PP
108. Bill Monroe
109. Herb Pennock
110. Chief Bender
111. Ed Konetchy
112. Al Oliver
113. Darryl Strawberry.
114. Jesse Tannehill
115. Bobby Veach
116. Chet Lemon.
117. Lave Cross
118. Tommy Leach. Inferior to Childs, even if he’d played 3B his whole career, which he didn’t. Overall, Cross was better, too (2645@100 translates to 2645@ almost 120 with position bonus.) 2143 hits @109, which translates to at most 119 when you add say 50% of a 1900 3B bonus of 20. Not close.
119. Tom York
OFF: Phil Rizzuto. Not close—hugely overrated. OPS+ of 93, and not a particularly long career, even with war credit.

Lee Smith 71-92 +478 saves. 1289IP @132. Only 54PP so drops off consideration set.

Lofton just off the bottom of consideration set (even with a modest CF bonus, not quite there.)

Bobby Bonds very short career, at a level that keeps him just off my consideration set, though he could be ranked as high as #80 or so, but nowhere near top 15.

   8. Bleed the Freak Posted: December 14, 2018 at 12:13 PM (#5797826)
I'll take the 8th post, sharing with Cal Ripken Jr., Andre Dawson, Albert Belle, and other luminaries.

Have been a lurker since the early days and a voter since the elections went annual. My system incorporates for hitters: Kiko's Win-Loss Records, DRA/Baseball Gauge WAR, Baseball-Reference WAR, Dan R WAR, War Credit, MLE credit (mostly for pre-integration players), Negro League/integration credit, CSAA/catcher values from BP where available, RE24/clutch contextual value, and rrOPS+ park info. For pitchers, I use the same systems, as well as FG FIP WAR, and a dose of WPA.

1. Roy Halladay
2. Mariano Rivera
3. Dick Redding
4. Luis Tiant
5. Johan Santana
6. Urban Shocker
7. Bert Campaneris
8. Ben Taylor
9. Bobby Veach
10. Andruw Jones
11. Art Fletcher
12. Wally Schang
13. Andy Pettitte
14. Don Newcombe
15. Dwight Gooden

Subset of others under consideration, in or close to personal hall of fame: Babe Adams, Kevin Appier, Dave Bancroft, Lance Berkman, Tommy Bond, Bobby Bonds, Charlie Buffinton, Cesar Cedeno, Eddie Cicotte, Bus Clarkson, Davey Concepcion, Kiki Cuyler, Dizzy Dean, Brian Giles, Burleigh Grimes, Ron Guidry, Toby Harrah, Todd Helton, Orlando Hernandez, Orel Hershiser, Harry Hooper, Tommy John, Bob Johnson, Jim Kaat, Jeff Kent, Tommy Leach, Kenny Lofton, Dolf Luque, Hurley McNair, Thurman Munson, Dale Murphy, Roy Oswalt, Johnny Pesky, Sam Rice, Phil Rizzuto, Sammy Sosa, Vern Stephens, Joe Tinker, George Uhle, Roy Welmaker, Ed Williamson, Vic Willis.
   9. DL from MN Posted: December 14, 2018 at 02:07 PM (#5797886)
Bleed the Freak - need comments on Buddy Bell and Jorge Posada to be legal
   10. Chris Fluit Posted: December 14, 2018 at 02:53 PM (#5797904)
2019 Ballot

1. Mariano Rivera, RP (new) 205 ERA+ (best all-time) in 1283 IP. 5th in WPA between Spahn and Seaver. 22nd in Adjusted Pitching Runs between Palmer and Ford. And that doesn’t even include his 0.70 ERA in 141 postseason innings, another 2 seasons worth of dominance for a topflight relief pitcher.

2. Roy Halladay, P (new) 131 ERA+ in 2749 IP. Led his league in IP four times, CG seven times, shutouts four times, and ERA+ and WHIP once each.

3. “Cannonball” Dick Redding, P (6): I’m glad to see more of the electorate coming around on Redding, one of the more dominant pitchers of the late ‘teens. Most career WAR and Win Shares Above Bench of Negro League players not in the Hall of Fame. #1 pitcher in 1914/15 (Cuban League), ‘17 and ’19. #1 player in 1917 (25.9 Win Shares). Top three in ‘12/’13, 1915, and ‘15/’16. Top ten in ’12, ’16 and ’21. Great peak, sufficient prime.

4. Ben Taylor, 1B: (4): Imagine a player with Carlos Delgado’s bat and Mark Grace’s glove. That’s what Taylor’s estimates look like (138 OPS+ in 9091 compared to 138 in 8647 for Delgado and 76.5 fielding runs compared to 77 for Grace). Taylor, like Redding, is long overdue induction.

5. Todd Helton, 1B (new): 133 OPS+ in 9453 plate attempts. Produced 1091 runs, 1076 RBI, a .332/.432/.585 slash line and a 144 OPS+ in a 10-year prime from 1998 to 2007. And, oh yeah, good for +72 fielding runs.

6. Sammy Sosa, RF (7): 128 OPS+ in 9896 plate attempts. Five seasons of 150 or better. +86 fielding runs thanks to a great glove when he was a young.

7. Jeff Kent, 2B (8): 123 OPS+ in 9537 plate attempts, with 1 season over 160, 3 over 140 and 5 over 130. Minus 42 fielding runs keep him from being an Inner Circle guy.

8. Sal Bando, 3B (9): The best third baseman available. 119 OPS+ at the plate and +36 fielding runs at the hot corner.

9. Vic Willis, P (10): Best pitcher in the National League in 1899 (1st in ERA+, pitching wins and WAR for pitchers). Second-best in ‘01, ’02, and ’06. Packed a huge career (3996 innings) into only 13 seasons.

10. Don Newcombe, P (11): Minor league credit during integration, military credit during the Korean War and 9.0 WAR at the plate on top of an already very good pitching career.

11. Kenny Lofton, CF (12): 107 OPS+ in 9235 plate attempts. +112 fielding runs.

12. Tommy Bridges, P (13): Top ten in ERA+ 10 times in 12 seasons. Top ten in innings pitched 5 straight seasons from 1933 to 1937.

13. Bob Johnson, LF (14): 13 seasons with OPS+ over 125, top ten 10 times in 12 seasons. Top ten in Runs Created 9 times.

14. Luis Aparicio, SS (15): +123 base-running (including reaching base w/o a hit) and +149 fielding. Does everything that doesn’t show up in OPS and WAR notices- his 49.9 beats Bert (45.3) and crushes Concepcion (33.6).

15. Andruw Jones (16): new to the ballot after just missing out last year. +235 fielding runs supports the argument for Jones as one of the best defensive centerfielders of all-time. 111 OPS+ is pretty good for a defense-first centerfielder. Would rank higher except he was essentially done as a regular player at the age of 30 (ignoring a bounceback season at 33 with the White Sox).

The next five:

16. Andy Pettitte, P (new): 117 ERA+ in 3316 IP. Another 276 innings in the postseason of the same quality (3.81 ERA to 3.85 in the regular season). Just a bit behind Bridges in overall value. Should sneak onto the ballot within the next couple of years.

17. Fred McGriff, 1B: 134 OPS+ in 10,174. Top five in OPS+ and Runs Created six times each category. -34 fielding runs drops him below Sosa.

18. Luis Tiant, P: Erratic career resulted in very good final numbers, 114 ERA+ in nearly 3500 innings (3486).

19. Hugh Duffy, CF (18): 49.6 career WAR is best among pre-expansion center fielders not in the HoM.

20. Dave Bancroft, SS: Best prime among eligible shortstops, ten year stretch from ’17 to ’26 saw 108 OPS+/5500 plate attempts and +81 fielding.

Necessary Disclosures:
Buddy Bell: I might be swayed someday but for now I prefer Bando's sustained prime and even Traynor relative to his era
Bobby Bonds is in my top 25. I'd be fine with his election.
Jorge Posada: I'm not convinced he's better than catchers from earlier eras. He's behind Howard, Lombardi, Schang and Munson for me.
Johan Santana: great peak but not enough outside of that for me as a prime/career voter
   11. Rob_Wood Posted: December 15, 2018 at 01:02 AM (#5798056)
My 2019 HOM ballot. Mainly use BB-Ref WAA and WAR; I also consider a myriad of other eval schemes and have moved more towards the "peak" side of the peak vs career debate (per CPASR).

1. Roy Halladay. Very deserving due to his great peak seasons.
2. Dick Redding. Very deserving Negro League star pitcher; thanks to all those who have devoted time and energy towards researching largely forgotten Negro League stars.
3. Luis Tiant. High on this ballot due to eval of his pennants-added (CPASR).
4. Mariano Rivera. Remarkable string of excellence in regular season and post-season performance.
5. Tommy Bridges. I have long voted for and advocated for Bridges.

6. Johan Santana. Difficult to slot, I think here is about right. Very peaky candidate. Koufax-lite.
7. Todd Helton. Too much to ignore. Very good peak candidate.
8. Kenny Lofton. Even if some air is taken out of his defensive value from BB-Ref, he is still deserving of a mid-ballot slot.
9. Jeff Kent. Good slugging second baseman.
10. Sammy Sosa. Very similar value profile to Vlad Guerrero (elected last year). Not broad enough shoulders to merit a higher slot.

11. Ben Taylor. Negro League first baseman. Good hitter and excellent fielder (when that was especially valuable).
12. Urban Shocker. Very good pitcher during the 1920s including the 1927 Yankees (tragically died the following season). Deserves "credit" for missing about half of 1918 season due to being drafted mid-season in WWI.
13. Buddy Bell. Long time gold glove 3B with a decent bat.
14. Phil Rizzuto. I encourage everyone to give Rizzuto another look, especially to reconsider the proper amount of wartime "credit" Rizzuto deserves.
15. Sal Bando. Tremendously over-looked leader of Oakland A's dynasty of the early 1970s.

Other top 10 returnees not mentioned above:

Bobby Bonds -- around 20th
Andruw Jones -- around 25th
Jorge Posada -- around 100th.
   12. Jaack Posted: December 15, 2018 at 11:48 AM (#5798091)
This is my second year as a voter. Philosophically I would describe myself as a voter targeting extended quality primes, but both careerly and peakish players end up doing well on my ballot – I have Tommy John in my top 5 but I also have Al Rosen in my top 50. I also, notably prioritize FIP-WAR for pitchers, which can give me some idiosyncratic results. I also tend to make a lot of adjustments overtime, so players can move around quite a bit over the course of the year – I feel making constant adjustments helps me get a better feel for which players I like the best – the guys who do well no matter how I tinker with aspects of my system I’m less confident in.

Here is my ballot, with last years’ ballot placement in parentheses:

1. Roy Halladay (New)
Halladay ranks as a top 30 starting pitcher all time for me, so it’s no surprise he tops my ballot.

2. Mariano Rivera (New)
I gave Rivera consideration for the top slot – a generous interpretation of his career puts him neck and neck with Halladay, but at the end of the day, it’s hard for me to say he was a more worthy pitcher. Still the best relief pitcher by a large margin.

3. Lance Berkman (New)
Sustained prime with the bat makes up for his shorter career and then some. His bat is similar to Willie Stargell, and while Stargell has 2 seasons on Berkman, Berkman more than makes up for it with his competent glovework.

4. Tommy John (3)
Top backlogger again from me. While the peak is low, he had a decently long prime, which when supported by the nearly endless amount of additional decent seasons. A very strong candidate by many different measures.

5. Babe Adams (8)
Every time I give Babe Adams a longer look, I come away more convinced. Compared to his contemporaries in white baseball, he obviously wasn’t Walter Johnson or Pete Alexander, and Ed Walsh was a fair bit better as well. But after that? I think he’s clearly as good as, if not better than qualified, contemporary Hall of Meriters Stan Coveleski and Mordecai Brown.

6. Kenny Lofton (4)
An all-around effective player that never got his due. Not a slam dunk case, but ahead of a good number of already inducted center fielders.

7. Jeff Kent (7)
He’s my most qualified second baseman by a significant margin. Perhaps the strongest offensive second basemen since Joe Morgan and the glovework wasn't that bad until the end of his career - in his prime in San Francisco he was perfectly adequate at second.

8. Mickey Lolich (6)
Does poorly by bbref-WAR (which I don't use at all for pitchers) but decently strong by other metrics. HA discernible peak, a large volume of quality pitching, and a stellar postseason record combine to make him a very good candidate.

9. Dick Redding (95)
The new MLEs from Dr. Chaleeko make it pretty clear I had missed the boat here last year. Even with a pretty conservative take on his career, it puts Redding here. I could make a case that he should be in an elect me spot, but I’ll stick with my conservative estimate, which still places him well above the line.

10. Bob Johnson (15)
Indian Bob has slowly moved up my rankings from right on the borderline to the middle of the ballot. Part of the jump this year is because I phased out my debiting of the WWII seasons due to both practical reasons (Johnson was the only player notably affected – everyone else was either well over the line or far from it) and philosophical ones (while the league was weaker in the war years, it was still the highest level baseball league around).

11. Kiki Cuyler (9)
I think if Carlos Beltran had played in the live-ball era, he’s look something like Kiki Cuyler (although likely a bit better).

12. Bert Campaneris (10)
I think that the 70s A’s had exactly one HoMer on the left side of the infield between Campaneris and Sal Bando. But while Campaneris was probably the best shortstop in the league for a good portion of his career, I’m not sure you could say the same about Bando and his contemporary third basemen.

13. Ben Taylor (11)
Long career/low peak first basemen aren’t typically my type, but Taylor seems to be the best first basemen of his era, and I also typically like good fielders at first base, which Taylor seems to have been.

14. Roy Oswalt (New)
Of the shorter career-type pitchers that have been hitting the ballot as of late, Oswalt looks the best to me on the strength of his sustained prime. Comparable to Bret Saberhagen.

15. Robin Ventura (12)
Similar profile to Scott Rolen, although obviously not quite as good. Stands out among the third base glut for being clearly the best at the position in his era.

--------
16. Todd Helton (New)
I think he’s worthy, but I have some qualms with his defensive metrics, which seem a bit too strong for a player at his position in his era. An excellent hitter and fielder, even accounting for 2000s Coors Field sillyball.

17. Trevor Hoffman (20)
Being fair to modern pitchers is tough. The way I see it is that there are three options to deal with the decline in innings from starting pitchers in the past 20 years. I see three options: We can induct not adjust the standards and fewer pitchers from the modern era, we can induct weaker pitchers than in other eras, or we can induct a few relievers. The last one seems the least messy philosophically, so Hoffman gets my support as the best available reliever.

18. Bobby Bonds (18)
He fits the profile of an outfielder who does well in my system. Pretty similar to Cuyler in a number of ways, although the short prime is a bit of an issue.

19. Andy Pettitte (New)
Pettitte’s been a difficult candidate for me to get a grip on. He has a bit of a Tommy John/Jim Kaat type career with a low peak but a lot of quality seasons. His postseason resume is enormous, but at the same time a bit underwhelming – his postseason stats are basically just his regular season stats, not like Lolich or Adams above, who both dominated the postseason. He’s someone with the potential to jump up a few spots in the future.

20. Jim Kaat (17)
Since I like Tommy John, it’s only natural I’d like Jim Kaat, except not as much.

21. Dwight Gooden (19)
As someone who focuses on fWAR over RA based WAR for pitchers, Gooden is an interesting case study. His 1985 season doesn’t look quite as impressive with FIP, but FIP likes ‘84, ‘88, and ‘90 significantly better. The effect is that Gooden looks less like a one hit wonder and more like a sustained ace for nearly a decade. That lands him right around here.

22. Billy Wagner (24)
Wagner had a better ERA than Hoffman, but most metrics I use have them neck-and-neck, before taking into account Wagner’s historically bad postseason resume.

23. Dolph Camilli (21)
Another guy with a shorter career. One of the best hitters in baseball for about seven years, but little outside of that. Similar case to Charlie Keller – Keller was better, but there’s more certainty with Camilli.

24. Joe Tinker (22)
His glove was one of the best ever, and the bat wasn’t terrible for deadball. However, it wasn’t great and his career was a bit short, so it keeps him on the borderline.

25. Hugh Duffy (25)
Hugh Duffy is the grand champion of the borderline.

26. Jim Sundberg (>100)
Sundberg is one of my biggest jumpers, partially because I discovered an input error which caused me to ignore his best offensive season, but also because I re-evaluated my catcher defense credit. This has pushed Sundberg right up to the borderline. I’m a bit surprised he did so well, but I can see the case - he's a top 5 defensive catcher all time and the bat wasn't a total lost cause.

27. Willie Davis (13)
Davis made my ballot last year, but retrospectively I was probably too aggressive with his placement. I’ve also spent some time reworking my center field rankings which brought him down a bit as well. As is, he’s not that different from Kenny Lofton, although clearly a step down.

28. Thurman Munson (41)
My catcher defense reshuffling benefited him, although at the end of the day I’m not so sure that his peak is high enough for his career length.

29. Luis Tiant (30)
Tiant feels extremely borderline to me – but considering the amount of support he has, I’d be open to being convinced further if someone want to make his case a little more.

30. Hack Wilson (14)
Wilson, like Davis, is a victim of my center field reshuffling. Hell of a peak, but questions remain about the short career and the mediocre to awful defensive metrics.

31. Paul Derringer (23)
FIP loves him, but I think that’s at least partially an illusion – it seems like he likely had issues with hard hit balls beyond a typical ace, which is something FIP would ignore. That being said, I think he is very strongly underrated by rWAR.

32. Andruw Jones (34)
I’m a little more comfortable with his defensive metrics than last year, but still not confident enough to put him on my ballot.

33. Jerry Koosman (28)
Underrated pitcher and a decently strong candidate. Probably a bit short, but I have an open mind.

34. Johan Santana (32)
Not a favorite of FIP, which doesn’t see his peak as being extraordinarily dominant, but just typical top-of-the-line-ace type stuff, which I'm not sure is enough with his shorter career. I’m interested to see what the electorate thinks of Cliff Lee, who I have as being dead even with Santana.

35. Johnny Evers (>100)
The discussion earlier this year regarding Evers compelled my to make some adjustments. I don’t think he’s HoM worthy, but he’s closer than and non-Kent second baseman.

36. Ron Guidry (36)
37. Tony Lazzeri (40)
38. John Olerud (26)
39. Larry Jackson (37)
40. Orel Hershiser (42)
41. Frank Chance (70)
42. Vic Willis (51)
43. Norm Cash (38)
44. Vern Stephens (>100)
45. Al Rosen (>100)
46. Burleigh Grimes (53)
47. Frank Tanana (29)
48. Sammy Sosa (35)
I’ve soured on him a bit. His case is virtually entirely based on home runs, which isn’t a great thing when he got most of them in the most dinger friendly era in baseball history.

49. Steve Rogers (83)
50. Wally Schang (96)

54. Buddy Bell (31)
Dropped a bit when I reworked my third basemen some. He was a great fielder and a great player overall, but if he is a HoMer, it’s right on the borderline. Furthermore, He has quite a few clearly better close contemporaries at third base. If we induct more third basemen to reach the same representation as the other positions, I’d prefer to induct someone like Robin Ventura or Bob Elliott, who was the best at the position for a good while, rather than Buddy Bell, who was fourth or fifth best.

120. Miguel Tejada (NEW)
I’m somewhat surprised he’s as high as he is, but it’s still not good enough for me to take him seriously as a candidate.

123. Jorge Posada (69)
The side effect of my defensive adjustments for catchers has been that Posada takes a big fall, not that I was near voting for him before. Defense and baserunning concerns keep him a good distance from being worthy in my system. Seems like the Ernie Lombardi of his day.

Just to note – while I am more than likely underrating him at least a small amount, Harold Baines more than likely does not make my top 500 at the current time.

   13. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: December 15, 2018 at 03:09 PM (#5798124)
Doc C’s 2019 ballot. BTW: I am also experiencing the situation where I am unable to view any pages on BTF due to the adidas-ad phenomenon. If the management is listening, please fix this issue in the name of all that is holy. ;)

Since I’m using a phone to do this ballot, it may be a little briefer than usual. Please note that the rankingsim quoting do include active and not-yet-eligible players.

1) DICK REDDING (137 CHEWS+): MLEs strongly suggest we missed the boat the first time around on him. We now have better data that supports ranking in my top 25 pitchers. Based on my own assessment, Redding’s got significantly more data availability than the average Negro Leagues pitcher I’ve run up MLEs for.

2) ROY HALLADAY (124 CHEWS+): Ranks in my top 40 just above Vance and K Brown who seem like good comps out of the gate.

3) MARIANO RIVERA (120 CHEWS+): G.R.O.A.T. He represents the most extreme and plausible reliever candidacy we are likely ever to consider.

4) TODD HELTON (115 CHEWS+): 16th highest ranked 1B with a fine glove to with his highly productive bat.

5) BUDDY BELL (116 CHEWS+): The Brooks Robinson of his day, with a little better bat to boot. He ranks 17th at 3B, and he falls right in the belly of the HOM between Nettles and Darrell Evans.

6) LUIS TIANT (111 CHEWS+): Oddly overlooked by us so far, but we have sacrificed some lower-tier HOMers like Tiant by over-electing in the 19th Century by as many as 7 players and by about the same amount between the wars. Ranks in my top 60, which equates to being in my top 20 at a hitting position.

7) THURMAN MUNSON (107 CHEWS+): My 20th ranked catcher. We need more backstops in my opinion, and More neon, despite his medium-length career was a very good one and one of the secret weapons of the 1970s Yankees.

8) WALLY SCHANG (103 CHEWS+): Outstanding AL catcher of the pre-Cochrane/Dickey era. He ranks 21st among my catching pool.

9) JOHAN SANTANA (109 CHEWS+): Lots of pitchers that I think we’ve missed out on. He’s something of a fave of mine, and he is the Sandy Koufax of his time. He’d rank about 20th were he a hitter.

10) HARRY HOOPER (103 CHEWS+): Hooper is my 23rd ranked RF, but he’s getting a boost from me to account for the arm and GIDP value the lack of complete PBP is hiding from us.

11) BOBBY VEACH (112 CHEWS+): Outstanding LFer and very good hitter. He’s something like Shecks-Lite, but no pale imitator. Like Sheckard, he could really go get the ball in a time when LF was like a second CF.

12) ARTIE FLETCHER (119 CHEWS+): The Ozzie Smith of his era without the speed. Just an outstanding defender.

13) TONY PHILLIPS (102 CHEWS+): Right bear the borederline, but a little bit of hidden value in my opinion due to multipositional abilities, wherein he allows the team more opps to gain the platoon advantage and/or a defensive advantage. A very rare type of player with a peculiar career path and fun to watch...when he wasn’t coked up.

14) ANDRUW JONES (116 CHEWS+): The preeminent post-Mays centerfielder with 40-homer power and enough walks to be a good hitter. Sorely under looked by the BBWAA, presumably because he got old and chunky too soon.

15) KENNY LOFTON: (109 CHEWS+): My 23rd ranked CF and an excellent all-around player who even had occasional power. I wish he’d gotten to 3,000 hits, but he doesn’t need them anyway.

NEW GUYS
Believe it or not, one more good year would have probaby nosed MIGUEL TEJAJDA over the line, which is also true if ROY OAWALT. LANCE BERKMAN need two more. ANDY PETTITTE is over my personal in/out line, but he is in a long queue behind Dick Redding.

REQUIRED DISCLOSURES
JEFF KENT falls just below my personal in-out, and he’s behind several other 2Bs for me.
SAMMY SOSA and BOBBY BONDS are over my RF line too but just barely and rate behind Hooper.
JORGE POSADA is well below my line due to poor handling of pitchers. See Max Marchi’s research for the grisly details. He’s also behind the likes of Tenace and a Sundberg and Pena.
BEN TAYLOR: I could pull the trigger on him at some point. We have an awful lot of 1Bs, and faced with the additional tiebreaker of half his career being in a heavily populated era, I decided to look elsewhere. But I am far from done with him.

   14. Howie Menckel Posted: December 15, 2018 at 10:30 PM (#5798161)
sneaking in before the monsters who post the adidas ad shut the site down again

2019 ballot - our (and my) 122nd since we began this version of the journey in 2003 (real time) with an "1898" ballot. Honored to be "The First Voter."

props to any other remaining "voting Ripkens" as well (I think there are a couple left).

I had 2018 electees Chipper-Thome-Rolen-Vlad at 1-3-2-4 on my ballot.

The annual fine print:

Overall, I think there is a bit too much slavish devotion in some quarters re WAR, WAA and an ever-increasing number of acronyms, which are intriguing tools but which still may not yet be sufficiently mature (though they continue to improve).

So my fondness (but not blind allegiance by any means, especially where durability is an issue) for ERA+ and OPS+ helps, I think, as a reality check even as fielding issues are quite significant for pitchers/team defenses - and especially for hitters, of course.

I tend to be mostly prime-oriented with hitters, and prime and career with pitchers. But a huge peak sometimes catches my eye, and a remarkably long, effective hitting career also works for me. I voted for Joe Jackson on his first try, and Pete Rose, and Mark McGwire - and that pattern will continue re any new steroid/PED accusees.

1. JEFF KENT - Quiet start in his first six seasons - OPS+s between 101 and 111 each time, so he reaches age 30 with nary an All-Star Game selection. And then - 142-125-162 (MVP)-131-147-119-123-133-119-123 - with pretty good durability to boot in a "who saw that coming" decade of INF mashing. His defense didn't help his team win games - directly. But his offensive output crushed most of the opposition thru the prime, allowing his team either to have a turbocharged offense or to be able to carry a great glove elsewhere and still have a competitive offense. That gets overlooked.

2. ROY HALLADAY - Eight monster seasons is enough to earn this slot in a down year for candidates. Eight times in top 4 in IP; he wasn't babied to improve his surface ERA+.

Halladay - 185* 167 163 159 157 152 145 143 121 115 090*
Pettitte's - 177 156 135* 132* 129 112 112 111 111 111 110 106 104 100 097

Berkman OPS+s - 164 163 161 160 160 158 143 140 138 130 130* 112*
McGriff's OPS+s - 165 165 157 157 153 147 144 144 142 125 120 119 111 110 106
Helton's OPS+s - 165 165 163 160 148 144 133 127 122 119 118 117* 089* 087*

3. LANCE BERKMAN - Fascinating battle with Crime Dog and Helton, and the winner gets the third slot.

4. ANDRUW JONES - Is 20th all-time in defensive WAR, with four "titles." Throw in 434 HR, and how is he not higher? He's a big star when he reaches 100 OPS+ - which he only did seven times. Plus only two more every-day seasons at all. 7599 PA is not a lot. Career WAR has him tied with Ken Boyer, which amazingly feels right. Needs to maintain his status defensively, as his career is further microscoped, to stay this high.

5. DICK REDDING - I have voted for him at least 50 times, but not so much recently. I am satisfied that the new data improves his case to this extent. Peers certainly respected his level of quality.

6. MARIANO RIVERA - A tale of two Marianos: Regular Season Mariano gave his manager less agita re baserunners, but most closer save percentages are quite high, so his dominance was stuck in law of diminishing returns. But Postseason Mariano was actually used properly: multiple IP, enter with runners on base, enter in tie games. That meant that his 0.70 ERA, 0.759 Ratio, 8-1 record, 42 SV in 141 IP performance somehow was even better than those stats look - and directly contributed toward 5 WS titles.

7. FRED MCGRIFF – Liked him by a nose five years ago over Palmeiro, who has a weaker peak but a longer prime. McGriff 134 OPS+ in 10174 PA to Palmeiro’s 132 in 12046 PA to Sheffield's 140 in 10947 PA - and now Vlad's 140 in 9055. I really like the 157-166-153-147-166-143-157 peak from 1998-94, all in 600+ PA or equivalent. Underrated.

8. BOB JOHNSON - I like this sort of consistency over a long span, though I'd hardly say he's a 'must-elect,' ever. Sort of the Joe Gordon of OFs in career shape, or a slightly longer and flatter version of Ralph Kiner. Or McGriff without the tail, offensively. I am concerned by 1944 being his highest OPS+; seems like he took advantage of the weak competition. But has more than a decade's worth of excellent hitting, for a prime that I like better than, say, most holdovers have.

9. BOB ELLIOTT - Good to see him at least occasionally mentioned in discussions starting about 10 'years' back, at least. Six seasons of at least 134 OPS+, ALL of them as a 3B (Ventura never had any that high, Bell had only one higher). Wish he'd played all 3B and not much OF, but c'est le vie - Sewell seemed to get treated as a full SS by some back in the day. Beats out HOMer Boyer and compares remarkably well with HOMer Santo as a hitter. Better than HOMer Hack as well, and better than HOMer DaEvans (see those guys' threads for details).

10. BEN TAYLOR - Long career, excellent fielder, consistent player. I'm not 100 pct sold on the hitting MLEs, but very good reputation and the reevaluation has made me comfortable enough to place him here.

11. KENNY LOFTON - Back on ballot last 2 years upon reconsideration.145 OPS in star-crossed 1994 made him an incredibly great player, and anytime he put up 120+ it also would be pretty true. But he never did - outside of a 121. He's a very good player in all 10 of these 100 to 119 OPS+ seasons due to defense, and it's difficult to say how many pts he can give up there and still be a better player than a slugger.

12. JOHAN SANTANA - THIS is why you have to reevaluate every top 10 returnee! Geesh, 182 166 162 155 148* 131 130 129 - and two 1sts and 2 2nds in IP to boot. Shoots up the ballot with one or two more great ones, but settles for here on my second look.

13. TODD HELTON - Couldn't quite hold up in the battle v Berkman and McGriff, but I like the 3 Gold Gloves - even if merely at 1B.

14. JORGE POSADA - I know about the defense.I also know about OPS+s of 153-144-139-131-125 and career 121. Either the Yankees would have won 115 games a year (at least) if Posada and Jeter could field, or we may be overrating the cost of Posada's defensive shortcomings. This guy had eight straight seasons of 540+ PA, which is amazing. Like Kent, in some respects.

ERA+, full seasons
Pettitte - 177 156 135* 132* 129 112 112 111 111 111 (111) 110 106 104 100 097
ViWillis - 165 154 153 131 128 115 111 109 104 098 096 096 089
Walters - 170 154 146 146 141 131* 127 127 123 109* 107 103 094 092 090
Bridges - 146 144 141 140 139 139 137 133 119 118 115 111* 091

15. BUCKY WALTERS - Only the 4th pitcher on my ballot - more may join once the offensive backlog lessens. Seemed to get Palmer-like defensive support, without enough super-stats to make that irrelevant. Proved his mettle outside of 'war years.' Bob Lemon-esque, though I wasn't a big fan there.

................

AMONG THE TOP 10 RETURNEES, BUT I DIDN'T VOTE FOR THEM

LUIS TIANT - Looks like he has the peak at first glance, but notice that the IP just aren't quite there. Plenty good when he did pitch, but with that lack of innings you have to be even more dominant. Best season IP finishes are just 6-7-8. Maybe he winds up as the era's last P electee - but probably not. Still, he remains close for me, so he'll sneak onto my ballot eventually, I suspect.

SAMMY SOSA - Here the big prime is 5 yrs, and it's more obvious because there wasn't a ton before or after. This is his case: Very durable with OPS+s then of 160-151-161-203-160. Bounced this year by new offensive blood, but remains in the mix.

BUDDY BELL - One of a number of 3B guys from this era, and I prefer Sal Bando (heck, I once preferred Ron Cey). Solid all-around player and 1980-84 peak is a very strong offense-defense case. I just don't see enough beyond that, but I appreciate why he gets some love.

BOBBY BONDS - 8090 PA, and best OPS+ is 151. A 130 to 143 six other times, which is nice but the strong is just not long enough for an OF. Compare to Posada.

...........

OTHERS OF INTEREST

ANDY PETTITTE - I didn't realize that he will have to be in my annual consideration, but turns out he earned it. Likely gets a low-ballot slot one year.

TOMMY BRIDGES - Bounced back on ballot last year due to reconsideration, just missed this year. Eight ERA+s in the 1930s and 1940s, which is solid even though there's no blockbuster season. Only top 7 in IP three times, which is low for that, well, era.

TREVOR HOFFMAN - He dropped off my ballot last year - under 1100 IP, and table constantly set for 1-inning success. A weird player no matter what your system, as are almost all of the modern closers. Consistency is a real plus, but what was he doing? Mainly allowing the Padres to avoid the part-season hiccups that rivals had when a closer spit the bit - costing those teams a couple of extra games sometimes. Rivera has the insane postseason stats; no such luck here.

BILLY WAGNER - Claim to fame is utter dominance - but of what? Instead of saving the vast majority of attempts with fewer Ks and the greater likelihood of a runner, he blew you away. But guess what, if you're down 1-2-3 runs against a well-rested good pitcher, you're usually dead either way. So longevity and consistency of Hoffman easily trumps Wagner's fewer key opportunities. Open to reconsideration on him in future years. Also had those postseason hiccups.

DAVE CONCEPCION - Peak is as good or better than Nellie Fox's; not quite as consistent, but a slick fielder and a very useful offensive weapon many times. Not fully buying the "other teams were stupid enough to play ciphers at the position, so give Davey bonus points" argument; that helped the Reds win pennants, but Concepcion can't get full credit for that stupidity. But he needs the modest credit in that regard to outlast Rizzuto on my list, as he does.

PHIL RIZZUTO - Have him in my top 25 still. I'll grant a lot of war credit and stipulate to the great, great fielding. But even 3 war credit years gets him only to 13 main years, and the fielding made him above-average overall but not excellent in most seasons. Yet at closer look, similar case to Concepcion when you cancel out the irrelevant parts.

DON NEWCOMBE – A passionate, detailed Newcombe backer might also get me there someday. I think he had the skills, but he didn’t quite actually produce quite enough. Prove me wrong next year. I almost buckled this year.

BERNIE WILLIAMS - Didn't quite like him enough over this or even last top 15, but a serious low-ballot candidate and might tab him in the future. Feel like he had corner-OF D and CF-star stats, but overrated as a fielder. Lofton seems to -block him.

KEN SINGLETON - Bob Johnson-like, but not quite as good for quite as long. Equally underappreciated in his time.

DALE MURPHY - His modest fan club will be saddened that he fell off my ballot in recent years. A different peak-primieness than polar opposite personality Albert Belle - and a different fade as well.

OMAR VIZQUEL - Ah, Omar the Outmaker (7th-most all-time). Had a 50 OPS+ in his first and last seasons, remarkably. An 82 for his career. His defense was stellar enough to maybe the worst hitter in the Hall of the Very Good. Someone has to be, I suppose.
   15. Bleed the Freak Posted: December 16, 2018 at 05:38 PM (#5798268)
To DL in post 9, apologies for delay, Adidas add still a b-tch.

Buddy Bell is getting WAR that should be allotted to shortstops from that era, Kiko has convincing data to avoid Buddy.

Jorge Posada is a belief in max marchi and others assessment that his defense torpedoes his case.
   16. Kiko Sakata Posted: December 16, 2018 at 09:34 PM (#5798294)
I might as well move this to the Ballot Thread before I forget to (and FYI, that was an ordeal - the stupid Adidas thing hit about 4 times, then I had the problem of not being able to log in another 3 or 4 times; Ugh!). See comment #312 of the Discussion Thread for an expanded version of this. Let me know if I need to move any of that discussion over here to make this ballot official.

Here's my ballot.

1. Roy Halladay
2. Mariano Rivera
3. Cannonball Dick Redding
4. Tommy John
5. Ben Taylor
6. Wally Schang
7. Tommy Henrich
8. Dwight Gooden
9. Johnny Evers
10. Jorge Posada
11. Andy Pettitte
12. Johan Santana
13. Vern Stephens
14. Jeff Kent
15. Luis Tiant

First 11 out:

16. Don Newcombe
17. Urban Shocker
18. Orel Hershiser
19. Darryl Strawberry
20. Dave Concepcion
21. Bert Campaneris
22. Toby Harrah
23. Dizzy Dean
24. Andruw Jones
25. Gil Hodges
26. Lance Berkman

Other required disclosures:

Sammy Sosa - probably in my top 75 or so. Decent candidate. He looks much better in eWins (which are context-neutral) than pWins (which tie to team wins).

Kenny Lofton - he might sneak into my top 100. Baseball-Reference (and Fangraphs) overweight fielding in their WAR calculations. So, I tend to rate players with large fielding components to their WAR somewhat lower.

Buddy Bell - same story as Kenny Lofton but far more so. Honestly, he's not THAT much better than Harold Baines in my system - Baines was a better hitter, but Bell makes that up by playing third base and playing it very well. I think BB-Ref also has problems with their positional adjustments for 3B and SS in the 1970s (see my #'s 20-22 above).

Bobby Bonds - a step below Lofton (who's a step below Sosa, who's at least a step below Andruw Jones). My system doesn't like his fielding as much as BB-Ref.

Other debuts of note:

Roy Oswalt is probably in my top 30 or so.
Todd Helton ranks somewhere in the 100-125 range for me (between Lofton and Bonds). When you park-adjust his numbers, he just doesn't really distinguish himself from a bunch of other first basemen from this era. John Olerud, for example, shows up just ahead of Helton in my weighting system.
   17. progrockfan Posted: December 17, 2018 at 10:41 AM (#5798356)
Submitted respectfully, my first-ever ballot.

1. Mariano Rivera (all-time records in ERA+, saves, & games finished; live-ball records for ERA & WHIP; AL record for games pitched; by far the greatest postseason pitcher ever; 1999 World Series MVP, 2003 ALCS MVP; the sole reliever who I see as Inner Circle, and Tom Verducci explains why: "Definitively the best at his position by a wider margin than any player at any position in the history of baseball."

2. Dick Redding (if Mariano weren't on the ballot he'd be an easy #1 for me; I see him as having a Mussina-type career in MLB, grinding out All-Star or near-All Star value season after season)

3. Roy Halladay (all-2000s team, tremendous durability in the reliever era, great control; I think the electorate sees him as a bit hotter than I do, but he's still a worthy #3)

4. Ben Taylor (there's lots of first basemen in the Hall, sure, but it's hard to discount that stick, and as a general rule I tend to lean in favor of players who weren't given the chance to show their greatness on the biggest possible stage)

5. Luke Easter (every external indicator seems to point to him being a superstar if he'd been given the chance; 144 OPS+ at age 38 is historically great; like Paige, I see him as deserving of significant pre- AND post-career MLEs; though I acknowledge the uncertainty surrounding him, I see Easter as the HoM's greatest omission)

6. Wally Schang (2nd-highest OBP ever at catcher, good career longevity, and definitely rose to the occasion in the 1918 Series; until Mauer becomes eligible, I see Schang as comfortably the best catcher not in the HoM)

7. Phil Rizzuto (great defense up the middle, an MVP & a solid chunk of WWII credit get him this high)

8. Dolf Luque (Cuba credit pushes him ahead of Tiant for me; otherwise I see their candidacies as quite similar)

9. Luis Tiant (in terms of my ballot positioning, closer to Pettite than Redding or Halladay; two ERA titles, but lacking the consistency of a truly great pitcher; in part, I rank Luque and Tiant this high in response to what some voters perceive as a pitching shortage in the HoM)

10. Todd Helton (.300-.400-.500 is pretty difficult to compile, in or out of Colorado; decent glove man as well; I think he'll be in the HoM sooner or later, and I could perhaps be persuaded that he should rank above Rizzuto and more or less even with Taylor)

11. Bob Johnson (a teriffic combination of steady offense, above-average defense and tremendous longevity; had substantial careers both before and after his MLB playing time, and I strongly suspect that given the right opportunities he would've been a Winfield-type 3000 hit man, with less basepath speed but more walks and possibly a bit more XBH power; he's right on the HoM borderline for me)

12. Bobby Bonds (the more I look, the more I like; seven consecutive 20-20 seasons, great range on defense)

13. Kenny Lofton (a solid career, perhaps not quite at HoM levels; a blazer on the basepaths, but couldn't maintain those very high levels like Raines, who, despite superficial career similarities, stands far ahead of Kenny in my book)

14. Andruw Jones (he'd rank at least 10 slots higher for me if he'd even tried to manage his weight; I have a real problem with players who laze and slob themselves out of baseball; in many ways, Andruw is the anti-Ichiro; only raw defensive magnificence keeps him on my ballot)

15. Thurman Munson (I suspect at least a partial illusion of context on his superficially excellent counting stats; a decent player, but many steps behind Schang in my book)


Next 5 -

16. Andy Pettite (above-average consistency, with year after year of the same basic solid value, is a valuable asset for a pennant contender, and is the best thing Andy's got going for him)

17. Jason Kendall (good career length for a catcher, solid consistent player, but otherwise not teriffically excited about him)

18. Johan Santana (despite a very short career, his 2004-08 peak and the advocacy of other voters squeeze him into my top 20)

19. Jeff Kent (decent stick for a middle infielder, but historically overrated in my view; he's the one guy who I'm not that comfortable having in my top 20, but I don't see anyone I regard as more worthy at the present)

20. George Van Haltren (don't know that I advocate him for the HoM, but I do think he's a player worth remembering)


Required discosures -

Buddy Bell: just doesn't rank with the great third basemen in my view, nothing more complex than that; Kent is top 20 and Bell is not only because contemporary opinion regarded Kent a bit higher

Jorge Posada: I'm frankly suprised he made the top 10 last year; a notch below Kendall in my book, who's a big notch below Munson, who in turn is a big notch below Schang
   18. cookiedabookie Posted: December 18, 2018 at 05:52 PM (#5798862)
So this is my first ballot. Given the discussion thread, and some comments made on my preliminary ballot, I have made some changes (moving Redding up, Lombardi down, etc). I use both rWAR and fWAR, with more of a focus on peak. I also give catchers a boost based on playing time and time behind the plate.

1. Roy Halladay - best pitcher in my rankings. Such a dominant peak, he's a no-doubt HoF and HoM player

2. Andruw Jones - I know people want to discount the defensive values for him, but he past my eye test, and the numbers seem right to me. Plus, he had an elite bat for one of the best defensive center fielders ever.

3. Mariano Rivera - The best reliever of all time, the Babe Ruth of the position. If you don't think relievers belong, he still belongs. If you think only one should be in, he's the one.

4. Kenny Lofton - Like Andruw, I've heard his defensive values are skewed. All I know is he was above average at every part of the game with which you can help a team win.

5. Andy Pettitte - Seen as a compiler, but he comes up as the second-best arm in my rankings due to a combination of longevity and surprising performance on a rate basis.

6. Bobby Bonds - My top-ranked right fielder, and third-best position player. Great all-around player.

7. Dick Redding - I moved him up quite a bit due to conversations in the discussion thread. I may move him up more next year if he doesn't get in. I'm relying heavily on the work of others, and I just want to be a bit conservative.

8. Thurman Munson - He was my second-best catcher originally, but I swapped him and Lombardi based on the points raised about run values in the discussion thread. Still think Lombardi is underrated here, but I'm comfortable with Munson ahead of him.

9. Luis Tiant - Similar to Pettitte, with less consistency.

10. Todd Helton - My top-ranked first baseman, edging out Taylor. I'm much more comfortable with Helton's value than Taylor's at this point.

11. Kevin Appier - Surprisingly strong in my rankings. He actually edged out Tiant, but I'm not sure I'm comfotable with that yet. He could be higher on my list next year. Strong peak.

12. Johan Santana - dominant peak, but he's hurt by the lack of innings. Any of Tiant/Appier/Santana could go in any order for me next year, they are all that close.

13. Sal Bando - It seems to me that the HoM is a bit light in third baseman. I know there's a move to dock points from 1970s third basemen, but I think it may have gone too far. A strong bat with plus defense.

14. Bob Johnson - He's always been a favorite of mine in these types of discussions, and comes out as the best left fielder in my rankings.

15. Buddy Bell - Closing out my top 15 with a second third baseman from the 1970s. Not as good with the bat as Bando, but a better defender.

Required disclosures:

Sammy Sosa - He had an OMG peak, but not a whole lot else. I have him at #18 overall, and my second-best right fielder.

Jeff Kent - Great with the bat, not much else. I do have him as my top second baseman, #21 overall

Ben Taylor - I see a lot of love, I'm not sure we need more first basemen from the early days. But I have him as my second-best first baseman and at #24 overall. I could be swayed to move him up with further study next year

Jorge Posada - A personal favorite as a Yankees fan, but his value outside of hitting really hurts him. He's my fifth-ranked catcher, somewhere around 60th place overall for me
   19. Patrick W Posted: December 19, 2018 at 01:07 PM (#5799102)
Compared to the electorate as a whole, I have to be considered a career voter. However, my vote does include an additional 5-year credit for a weighted average of peak seasons (3-Yr, 5-Yr, etc.). Ranking system is based off Davenport WARP components, with modified adjustments in the conversion from W1 to W3. I also review BB-Ref as a check but don’t use those numbers systematically.

I am up to 1092 players total included in my current ranking assessment, including 592 players under consideration for this ballot (less the 267 HOM members and actives / too-recently retired).

I am seriously considering pulling the trigger on a revisionist Personal Hall of Merit. The updates to the WARP values over time (and my internal adjustments to them) are sufficiently divergent from the initial run to either make the contemporary selections not defendable or to require the next 40 years to correct now-identified oversights. Not a big deal when we were holding 20+ elections a year, a little more concerning in the annual era as my own age continues to climb. I am still in process of updating the dataset for previously elected and significantly down ballot folks, so it’s not ready yet – giving me more time to ponder.

Fear not, my idiosyncratic selections on the current ballot (in comparison to group consensus) appear to be mostly intact.

--- Top 10% of HOM Line ---
1. Mariano Rivera (n/a), N.Y. (A) RP (’95-’13) (2019) – Claims the top spot fairly clearly in the ranking, much as I might rather have the SP on top. I believe Rivera has the lowest translated ERA in the dataset, and not by a little, which allows his RAA figures to exceed Halladay’s in less than half the innings.

--- Top 25% of HOM Line ---
2. Jorge Posada (4), N.Y. (A), C (’97-’11) (2017) – As with all players of this era, Posada gets a boost because of a more-difficult American League environment. This elevates him above the Ted Simmons class. The nicely sustained peak from 2000-2007 also raises his value in my book, into the lower reaches of the Fisk/Cochrane class. Pretty impressive resume despite the relatively low AB total.

3. Jeff Kent (2), S.F. – L.A. (N), 2B (’92-’08) (2016) – Looks to rank comfortably ahead of Sandberg, and close to – but behind – Biggio, Gehringer, and Grich. Really surprised Houston wasn’t the second team listed here, but the DT’s love his 2005 season in Dodgertown.

--. Curt Schilling, Phila. – Ariz. (N), SP (’90-’07) (2019)

4. Roy Halladay (n/a), Tor. (A) – Phila. (N) SP (’98-’13) (2019) – For such a pitching-heavy ballot, Halladay’s placement atop the backlog can’t be much of a surprise. Only player on the ballot with a top 10% all-time peak score, creating separation from the starting pitchers with similar career scores listed below.

--- Top 50% of HOM Line ---

5. Todd Helton (n/a), Col. (N) 1B (’97-’13) – Looks to compare favorably with Keith Hernandez and Bill Terry for good bat, good field first-basemen, and he should join them in the HOM in short order.

6. Frank Tanana (12), Cal. – Detr. (A) SP (’73-’93) (2000) – No longer seen as having a Koufax peak, but it is still one of the top 175 peaks of all time. Plus the ever- present 10 additional years of average / below avg.

7. Sammy Sosa (6), Chic. (N), RF (’90-’07) – McGwire’s up to 170th on my list and Sosa 182nd, so this old comment is no longer as cool as it once was. Both worthy of election, just a fluke of timing that Sammy must wait awhile for election.

--. John McGraw, Balt. (N) 3B / SS (1891-1902)

--. Lip Pike, St.L. – Balt. (NA), CF / RF (’71-’78)

8. Lance Berkman (n/a), Houst. (N) 1B / LF (’99-’13) – A significantly better bat than Helton, but no fielding value, shorter career, and less impressive peak all add up. Helton and Berkman are not that far apart in total value, but the difference seems likely to significant, amounting to a much longer wait time.

9. Chuck Finley (--), Calif. (A) SP (’86-’02) (2008) – The translated statistics show Finley to have a top 25 percent innings pitched workload, combined with an ERA well above the average HOM level. League adjustments appear to have elevated him from past rankings, but he’s been lurking just off ballot for a while now.

10. Fred Dunlap (--), Clev. (N) – St.L. (U/N) 2B (’80-’90) – As you might suspect, a big winner in the system adjustments I’ve made to the WARP components. Anything that moves the needle closer to W1 and away from W3 is obviously going to be a big help to the Union Association. Even without that though, the adjustment from FRAR to FRAA might’ve placed him in the PHOM a long time ago had the system been in place at the time. Great player for a short period.

11. Orel Hershiser (8), L.A. (N) SP (’84-’99) – I swear, these adjustments have overall reduced pitchers in my rankings. A very odd combination, I think, of a peak player (I show Orel as having a top 50% HOM peak score) who would be extremely hurt by a switch to a PRAA system over PRAR.

--. Sandy Koufax, L.A. (N) SP (’56-’66)

12. Luis Tiant (13), Bost. – Clev. (A) SP (’64-’80) (1988) – The league adjustments having been reduced, Tiant looks a lot better in the rankings.

13. Luis Gonzalez (9), Ariz. – Hou. (N), LF (’91-’07) – A career candidate with a tent pole 2001 season that elevates all his peak scores. I don’t recall thinking of the ’91 Astros as a great collection of talent when I saw them in person at Wrigley, but quite a few of ‘em made careers for themselves, no?

14. Brian Giles (--), Pitts. – S.D. (N) RF / LF (’96-’09) – The peak score and fielding regression adjustments slot Giles in ahead of Reggie Smith and Bob Johnson in the pecking order.

15. Bucky Walters (10), Cinc. – Phila. (N) SP (’35-’47) (1961) – Despite my dropping of pitchers in the overall rankings, I still think the HOM has collectively elected too few pitchers. I believe 30% pitching is an appropriate level to honor in the HOM – about 4 pitchers for every 9.5 players – and the HOM is about 6.5 pitchers short of that mark.

--- I have 39 players ranked among the top 267 of all time who are eligible for this election, and an additional 12 previously elected HOM players awaiting induction for the pHOM. ---

Kenny Lofton – Really has no strong argument to speak in his favor, as far as my system can tell. An above average bat, but not elite. A slightly below average glove. His ’93-’94 peak is so short, he’s not really a peak candidate, and his career is not so long to accumulate value that way. Even if I needed to boost CF above the other OF positions, he’s pretty far behind Bernie Williams, Brett Butler, Kirby Puckett, Chet Lemon, and others.

Andruw Jones – I have found it necessary to regress the fielding value for my rankings, lest my Hall be filled with Dykstras and Lemons, but that choice just kills the scoring of a fielding first CF like Jones. There’s just not enough offense or career here for me.

Ben Taylor (1938) – Just a little behind Bo.Bonds in my rankings, ranked in the low 50s on this ballot. I have him essentially tied with Tony Perez and slightly behind Orlando Cepeda among first basemen.

Johan Santana – Koufax-lite, which is both a tremendous compliment and - unfortunately - damning with faint praise on this ballot (note: I would have elected Sandy in the mid-80s if the current ranking iteration was in place then, and I look forward to c. 2024 when I can remedy that discrepancy). I foresee Johan spending a long while in my backlog, but I suspect the modern HOM baseline is higher than this.

Buddy Bell (2009) – Has risen back above my pHOM line, I think due to a reevaluation of the league adjustment for the 70s AL. Bell now ranks right near Bobby Bonds as top-290 players (top 30 on the ballot), but the path back to ballot slots seems remote in the near future.

Bobby Bonds (1987) – An arguable case as one of the best 280 eligible players of all time; as I have it right now he is just barely outside that range, atop the very borderline of in/out in my system. But of course there are HOMers ranked below Bonds from earlier generations, so the in/out line for the current generation is actually higher than just making the top 280. In the P-Hall, and I’m always in favor of seeing those guys elected, but right now he’s in the 30s on my ballot.

Lofton, Jones, Taylor, Santana, Bell, and Bonds were in last year’s top fourteen, but not in my top 15 this year.
---
   20. dan b Posted: December 19, 2018 at 02:16 PM (#5799136)
I was here in 1898 when I was the only voter to pass on Ross Barnes and have missed once. I start with a half peak/half career WS system with tendency to favor peak. I have also been influenced by NHBA rankings. Whereas James looked at 3 best years and 5 consecutive years, I also look at 8 best years and 10 consecutive years. I look for hitters who would be above the median of already enshrined HoMers and pitchers with strong peaks.

PHoM 2019 – Rivera, Halladay, Berkman

1. Rivera, Mariano PHoM 2019. There goes Mariano Rivera, the best there ever was in this game. OK, the best relief pitcher there ever was in this game.
2. Halladay PHoM 2019. By WS, 1st in his league twice, 2nd twice, 3rd twice.
3. Santana PHoM 2018. That’s the kind of peak I am looking for in a pitcher. I was Koufax’s best friend here and see Santana at least Sandy’s equal. By WS each led their league 3 times. Over the 3 years he led his league, Santana had 14% more WS than the league runner up. Koufax had just 9% more.
4. Berkman PHoM 2019 Compares favorably with previously enshrined Edmonds and Guerrero.
5. Posada PHoM 2017. Important player on a great team. Compare with HoM catcher Bill Freehan.
6. Walters PHoM 1968. Nice peak – 3 WS Cy Youngs, 1 runner up. One more big year than Dean.
7. Cravath PHoM 1967. With mle credit Gavvy is above the HoM median using 5 consecutive seasons, 10 consecutive seasons, 3 best and 8 best seasons.
8. Redding Nice work on the new MLE. Not buying that he was better than already elected contemporaries like Dazzy Vance and Stan Coveleski, but better than guys like Eppa Rixey and Red Faber and any of his as yet unelected contemporaries.
9. Duffy PHoM 1912. Compared with the median level of already enshrined HoMers using WS, Duffy would be in the top half using 5 consecutive seasons, 10 consecutive seasons, 3 best and 8 best seasons. If WS overrate him, then so do I.
10. Dean PHoM 1976. 1975 reevaluation of great pitching peaks put him on my ballot for the first time. 2 WS Cy Youngs, 1 runner up. NHBA #25 pitcher - James may have overrated him, but not so much that we should ignore him.
11. Newcombe PHoM 1998.
12. Tiant PHoM 2012. NHBA #52.
13. Sosa It was quite a peak with just enough more to put him ahead of guys like Albert Belle, Al Rosen and Dale Murphy.
14. Murphy PHoM 2002. 4 consecutive seasons with 30+ WS. Above the HoM median for 5 consecutive years.
15. Rizzuto PHoM 1995. 1993 reevaluation moved him up. NHBA #16.



Of the top ten returnees from last year, Tiant, Sosa, Santana and Posada are on my ballot. Bonds (PHoM 2012) and Kent would be on a 20 player ballot. Lofton, Jones, Bell, and Taylor don’t have the peak I am looking for.
   21. Al Peterson Posted: December 19, 2018 at 03:58 PM (#5799188)
Is it baseball season yet? No, but it is HOM election season so a nice substitute.

2019 ballot thread listing. Four new eligible go on the ballot, they are a mix of stars we all know well. Minor slot movements elsewhere.

Methodology in brief: The system used for my ranking entails a little bit of everything including WS, WAR, OPS+/ERA+. Ratings include positional adjustments, additions to one’s playing record for minor league service, war, and NeL credit and for our real oldtimers some contemporary opinion thrown in. The results of this work tend to favor prime/peak players over career types but that is not 100% tried and true. Last year’s placement is in parenthesis.

1. Roy Halladay (-). Doc for 10 year run (2002-2011) averaged 17-8 with 219 IP at a 148 ERA+ clip. For a modern pitcher that is working it pretty good. The Cy Young placings show he had peaks years in the mix as well.

2. Dick Redding (4). Career was long – decent peak along the way. Outstanding fastball in his day according to James/Neyer book. So he didn’t get into the Hall of Fame; maybe the information collected by HOF committee wasn’t pertinent to Redding’s prime years. He deserves some WWI credit, thus patching up a bald spot in his prime years as 1918 and 1919 were affected. The last NeL pitcher I’d deem as worthy of induction.

3. Tommy Leach (6). Combination hot corner/centerfielder could field a little, hit a little. Second all-time in inside-the-park home runs to Wahoo Sam Crawford. Someone else stated he was uniquely valuable in his particular era and I agree he meant more in the particular era he performed in. Useless trivia: Still holds World Series record with 4 triples in a single series.

4. Phil Rizzuto (7). I’ve done my minor league & WWII absence calibration so Scooter scoots to ballot position. Glove first but the offense during prime years was nothing to sneeze at either. Holy Cow!

5. Mariano Rivera (-). There are adjustments made due to reliever role but hard to get around he was sustained excellence for a very long time in a role known for inconsistency. Postseason accomplishments of course bump him up. Gap between him and other relievers – yeah, it’s pretty large.

6. Bobby Bonds (8). Even with the constant trades, drinking problem and whatnot his combination of speed/power made him a very valuable player. He wasn’t the next Mays, or as good as his son, but we’re talking about a RF who could steal bases and field his position. All five tools on display. Dropped a little this time, needs to trail Vlad I feel.

7. Kenny Lofton (10). I’ve come around on Lofton some from earlier ballots. The defense and baserunning do add up over a long career and offset batting numbers that looks more mid-ranged. A well-traveled player who helped teams win.

8. Todd Helton (-).
Tricky with the Coors Field effect and the steroid era timing of his peak. You’ve got a player who was batting title & MVP contender, Gold Glove winner thru age 31. Then eh, just a guy. Still hitting .316 ain’t too shabby.

9. Tony Mullane (9). Old time pitcher who threw plenty well, a good hitter to boot. Had some playing time issues since he missed seasons due to being blacklisted. He’s amongst the best of his era when accounting for the time outside of baseball due to conflicts with different leagues. Goes on the all-Nickname team as well.

10. Andruw Jones (11). Locked down Gold Gloves for a decade. A great what if with him: Age 28 he’s 2nd in MVP, leading NL in HR’s and RBI’s. By age 31 hitting .158 in sunny LA.

11. Sammy Sosa (12). Peak power that was enough to make people start walking him. This increased his value as it upped his OBP skills, doubling the value added. Early in his career he had base stealing and defense as assets.

12. Lance Berkman (-). He’s the type of extended prime player my system tends to favor. Bob Johnson of his era, likely to have the same fate where 30 years from now his name will be unfamiliar to many casual baseball fans.

13. Mickey Welch (14).
300 game winner in the house. Was it due to luck, run support, bad opponents? Still a feat to accomplish, sometimes I need to remind myself that and not totally overlook Smilin’ Mickey. Seemed to pitch well against the other front line starters of his day.

14. Luis Tiant (16). Was less than the Carlton/Seaver/Niekro top SP grouping of his time but got by on his funky delivery to merit a down ballot slot in various year. His 1964 PCL record in Portland: 15-1 with a 2.04 ERA. That deserves a ML callup I guess -- slight extra credit on my end.

15. Bob Johnson (15). Always a bit underrated in Win Shares due to quality of teams he played on. His career has war years that need discount. But also a couple years at the beginning of his career were in the PCL where he was more than major league quality. The tail of his career is nonexistent since the 1946 avalanche of returning War players pushed him back to the minors.
Next up, but off ballot:

16. Buddy Bell (14). Dropped ever so slightly. The gap between top-tier 3Bmen is not large for the position when he played. Body type didn’t really look the part of a great glovemen but few would deny he was outstanding.

17. Jeff Kent. Highest 2nd basemen I’ve got, the glove holds him back just enough to be on the cusp of ballot. Still might be underrating position slightly but I’m not overly upset with a top 20 slot for him.

18. Ben Taylor. Holding steady here, little more analysis happens each year as we get more NeL data. He lingers on ballot fringe.

19. Vic Willis. A lot like Tiant. Has seen my ballot before, could again. Always the era question with pitchers from this timeframe.

20. Andy Pettitte (-). Not far off as I thought he would be. Above average production for awhile does get you somewhere in life.

21. Bus Clarkson
22. Sal Bando
23. Fred McGriff
24. Urban Shocker
25. Frank Chance

Disclosures:

Newcomers
Roy Oswalt: A Halladay type in doing work in condensed number of seasons, not as high a peak. 40ish it appears.

Top 10
Johan Santana: Slot in 50-60 range I guess? Needed 2 more years to push up the ranks.
Jorge Posada: The bat good, the glove not so much. Postseason work was underwhelming in many opportunities. Below Santana, say about 70-80.
   22. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: December 19, 2018 at 05:44 PM (#5799253)
I will get my ballot in tonight, but I may go a little over the 8 PM deadline.
   23. Michael J. Binkley's anxiety closet Posted: December 19, 2018 at 05:48 PM (#5799255)
edit: moved to discussion thread
   24. Mike Webber Posted: December 19, 2018 at 07:58 PM (#5799289)
BBRef WAR heavy ballot, with emphasis on career, where a player ranks among his era peers, with big seasons as a boosting factor.

1) Roy Halladay 64.7 BBref-WAR, 225 Win Shares – Big peak pushes him to the top.
2) Mariano Rivera57.1 BBref-WAR, 272 Win Shares – little bit of a bump for his post season heroics.
3) JEFF KENT – 55.2 BBref-WAR, 339 Win Shares one MVP type seasons, 9 seasons 20+ Win Shares. We share the exact same birth date, so bonus points for that. 20th round draft choice with the misfortune of being in the same organization as Robbie Alomar, who was exactly the same age. Never drew more than 31 walks in a season until he was 29, which limited him to being a solid player rather than an all-star.
4) SAL BANDO – 61.6 BBref-WAR, 283 Win Shares, two MVP type seasons, 9 seasons 20+ Win Shares. I believe he was better than Ken Boyer, but his home parks helped disguise it.
5) Todd Helton61.2 BBref-WAR, 316 Win Shares – Best 1B on the ballot, which is still a pretty strong group.
6) SAMMY SOSA – 58.4 BBref-WAR, 322 Win Shares – three 30+ Win Share seasons, 7 seasons 20+ Win Shares. Value wise very similar to Bobby Bonds.
7) LUIS TIANT – 66.1 BBref-WAR, 256 Win Shares – poor timing of his big years, but big years push him to top of pitchers currently on ballot. One spot behind Smoltz on the career WAR list for pitchers.
8) TOMMY LEACH – 46.8 BBref-WAR, 328 Win Shares, only one MVP type season, 8 seasons 20+ Win Shares. Good peak, excellent defensive player at third and in centerfield.
9) FRANK CHANCE45.6 WAR 237 Win Shares - I’m a career guy, but this is the peakiest of peak guys.
10) Dick Redding Doc Chaleeko MLE work and the additional data from seamheads, I’m comfortable he should be on the good side of the in/out line.
11) JOHAN SANTANA 51.4 BBref-WAR, 171 Win Shares – Cy Young Awards, 2 3rds, 1 5th, 1 7th. 45th in WAR among pitchers in the past 50 years. 32nd in the past 40. 26th in the past 30. He is really hard to rank, ahead of Appier, who is the top modern pitcher off the ballot.
12) ANDRUW JONES 62.8 BBref-WAR, 276 Win Shares – 1 MVP type season, 7 additional 20-win share seasons.
13) KENNY LOFTON 68.2 BBref - 281 Win Shares – The reason I have him lower than others is I believe his Defensive WAR is overstated. Couple that with his lack of MVP type season’s and I have him lower than many others voters. 7 20-win share seasons.
14) PHIL RIZZUTO – 40.6 BBref-WAR, 231 Win Shares, one MVP type seasons, 7 seasons 20+ Win Shares. With a conservative 60 or so win shares or 9 WAR during World War II, I move him to the top of the middle infielder group. Same arguments as Nellie Fox, only with a 3-year hole in his career at ages 25 to 27, plus a bad return to MLB in 1946. (No extra credit for 1946 – just noting it).
15) JOHN OLERUDE– 58 BBref-WAR, 302 Win Shares - 2 MVP type seasons, but only 5 other 20+ win share seasons. Also hurt by the large number of first basemen in his era that were clearly better.

Next group of guys off the ballot grouped by position:
Kevin Appier, Andy Pettitte, Tommy John, Vic Willis, Gene Tenace, Jorge Posada, Wally Schang, Fred McGriff, Norm Cash, Orlando Cepeda, Johnny Evers, Larry Doyle, Buddy Bell, Bob Elliot, Ron Cey, Joe Tinker, Miguel Tejada, Luis Aparicio, Dave Bancroft, Fregosi, Stephens, Bobby Bonds, Ken Williams, Bernie Williams, Bob Johnson, Sam Rice, Luis Gonzalez.

New Players not on ballot:
Andy Pettitte – behind Appier, not far off the ballot.
Lance Berkman – in the group with Bonds, not far off the ballot.
Tejada – further from the ballot than the guys above, but in the group of the best available SS.

Other required notes:

Bonds, Bell just off the ballot.

Ben Taylor is behind the group of Olerude, Delgado, McGriff, Cash and Cepeda.

Posada is behind Schang for me, and unlikely to get into the top 15.
   25. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: December 19, 2018 at 08:07 PM (#5799293)
Well, looks like it's the first time I missed an election. :-(
   26. Howie Menckel Posted: December 20, 2018 at 12:31 AM (#5799365)
your streak is alive, Murph (see Discussion thread)
   27. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: December 20, 2018 at 06:11 AM (#5799379)
Ah! That's great, Howie. I'll post something before the end of this week. Thanks!
   28. ronw Posted: December 20, 2018 at 12:06 PM (#5799522)
I'm just using a sum of bbref WAR and WAA (to go with Dr. Chaleeko's recent fine work). Catchers and relievers get a 25% bonus. 19th century pitchers get a discount while hitters get a premium. I set negative seasonal numbers to zero. One weird thing I do is take the greater of the pure batting or pitching numbers vs. total numbers. (i.e. Dick Stuart would use his batting WAR and WAA, not total.). It gets easier and easier each year to put a consideration set together with the available tools.

The numbers in parentheses are the Total, WAR and WAA for each player.

1. SP: Dick Redding (135.1, 93.0, 42.1) - #24 all time pitcher. Similar value to Robin Roberts, Eddie Plank, Fergie Jenkins. I always thought we missed him, and have voted for him every year since eligibility. Thanks Doc!

2. RP: Mariano Rivera (132.4, 56.3, 43.0) - #1 all time reliever. Similar value to no one. We rarely get to vote in the greatest at something. I don't think there is any argument about Mariano's status as the greatest reliever ever. 18 better than the second-best reliever in my system, Hoyt Wilhelm. Only Rivera, Wilhelm and Gossage would be elected, even with a 75% kicker.

3. SP: Roy Halladay (113.6, 69.3, 44.3) - #33 all time pitcher. Similar value to Smoltz, Kevin Brown, Rick Reuschel. Best pitcher of the 2010s.

4. 1B: Ben Taylor (104.1, 70.0, 34.1) - #18 all time first base. Similar value to Murray, Palmeiro. Based on the Seamheads data and now the HoME data, I really think we missed him. Was only behind Anson, Brouthers, Connor at his retirement, later surpassed by Gehrig, Foxx, Leonard, Mize, Greenberg pre-integration, but not really anyone else. Was possibly better than electee Suttles.

5. CF: Kenny Lofton (107.8, 68.3, 39.5) - #16 all time CF. Similar value to full Larry Doby, Carlos Beltran, Alejandro Oms, Andruw Jones. Lofton was a better hitter than Andruw Jones, even at peak numbers. He is a slightly worse fielder, but he should be elected.

6. CF: Andruw Jones (104.6, 64.4, 40.2) - #18 all time CF. Similar value to Kenny Lofton, Alejandro Oms, Andre Dawson. We have passed on most other glove-first CF but Jones is off the charts defensively, probably the best all-time outfielder. Less of a bat than I thought when numbers are placed into context, but enough of one to elect him.

7. SP: Luis Tiant (104.1, 67.2, 36.9) - #49 all time SP. Similar value to Hal Newhouser, Stan Coveleski, Vic Willis, Don Drysdale.

8. 3B: Buddy Bell (103.2, 67.1, 36.1) - #15 all time 3B. Similar value to Graig Nettles. Another glove-first player. Much of the backlog are players whose WAR/WAA numbers are enhanced by fielding. Bell would be the worst hitter we have elected as a modern 3B, but he wasn't a liability at the bat.

9. SP: Vic Willis (102.5, 67.8, 34.7) - #50 all time SP. Similar value to Ed Walsh, Dazzy Vance, Hal Newhouser, Luis Tiant, Stan Coveleski, Don Drysdale. I've been up and down on Willis. His raw WAR/WAA score is better than contemporary electees Joe McGinnity, Mordecai Brown, Rube Waddell and partial contemporary Griffith.

10. C: Wally Schang (97.3, 48.0, 25.0) - #19 all time C. Similar value to Tenace, Lombardi, Posada, Munson. The remaining catchers are tough. Among them, only Schang was clearly the best catcher of his generation.

11. 1B: Todd Helton (98.9, 61.8, 37.1) - #18 all time 1B. Similar value to Hernandez, Greenberg, and Joey Votto! Would be among the lower 1B elected, but would be a fine selection.

12. RF: Hurley McNair (114.2, 74.5, 39.7) - #13 all time RF. Similar value to Paul Waner, Winfield, Gwynn, Reggie Smith, Dwight Evans. I might need to have him higher, but I need time to study his candidacy. Big revelation from Dr. Chaleeko's numbers. Pencils higher, but I'm starting conservatively.

13. SS: Silvio Garcia (110.3, 71.5, 38.8) - #16 all time SS. Most surprising. I've never voted for him, but the recent changes justify including him.

14. SS: Sam Bankhead (109.2, 72.9, 36.3) - #17 all time SS. Always had the reputation, now some numbers to back it up. I need to take another careful look at McNair, Garcia, Bankhead, plus some others right below them.

15. SP: Johan Santana (85.9, 51.7, 34.2) - #96 all time SP by pure value. Similar value to Whitey Ford, Eddie Cicotte, Dwight Gooden, and Sandy Koufax. Slightly better raw numbers than Sandy Koufax (84.6, 53.5, 31.1). That is lower than all electees but Eppa Rixey, Ray Brown, Billy Pierce, Rube Foster, and Bob Lemon. Of those, I think Rixey, Pierce and Lemon were likely mistakes, I'm not sure yet about Ray Brown and Rube Foster. Still, I would elect Sandy Koufax today. This may require I add back in WAG, which bumped Santana up last year. The problem is I don't have WAG for Chaleeko's numbers.


Required Comments

RF: Bobby Bonds (92.2, 58.3, 33.9) - #26 all time RF. Similar value to Sosa, Abreu, Suzuki, Guerrero. Surprised just how low backlog outfielders were on my list when using bbref, even just taking offense into consideration for some.

RF: Sammy Sosa (96.0, 60.0, 36.0) - #22 all time RF. Similar value to Abreu, Suzuki, Guerrero, Bonds, but tops that pack. Drops when bbref only is used.

2B: Jeff Kent (89.9, 60.1, 29.8) - #22 all time 2B. Similar value to Joe Gordon, Bonnie Serrell, Marvin Williams, Ian Kinsler. Stats are slightly better than Billy Herman and Bobby Doerr, but they each get a bit of war credit. Kent would be fine for the HOM once the backlog goes down.

RF: Harold Baines (54.1, 42.2, 11.9) - #72 all time RF. Similar value to Tommy Henrich, Jason Heyward, Brian Jordan, Paul O'Neill. I know he isn't required, I just wanted to see since I have never considered voting for him.

Overlooked (thanks again, Doc!)

RF: Heavy Johnson (101.1, 64.0, 37.1) - #20 all time RF. Similar value to Joe Jackson, Reggie Smith, Dwight Evans, Bill Wright, Willard Brown. Put these numbers up in a shorter career than McNair, so could be a better choice.

RF: Bill Wright (100.6, 66.9, 33.7) - #21 all time RF. Also similar value to Joe Jackson, Reggie Smith, Dwight Evans, Heavy Johnson. Also close to contemporary Willard Brown.

SP: Andy Cooper (98.0, 64.8, 33.2) - #64 all time SP. Similar value to Red Faber, Clark Griffith, Juan Marichal, Bret Saberhagen. I always thought of him as Eppa Rixey lite, but it seems that Rixey (83.3, 58.7, 24.6) is Andy Cooper lite.

Other newbies

SP: Andy Pettitte (88.8, 60.7, 28.1) - #91 all time SP. Similar value to Mark Buehrle, Orel Hershiser. Backlog needs to clear.

LF: Lance Berkman (87.1, 54.5, 32.6) - #20 all time LF. Similar value to Bob Johnson, Joe Medwick, Ralph Kiner. Actually best available LF other than Bob Johnson, but still not quite enough yet.

SP: Roy Oswalt (84.2, 51.3, 32.9) - #105 all time SP. Similar value to Johan Santana, Sandy Koufax, but without the tremendous peak.

SS: Miguel Tejada (74.1, 50.7, 23.4) - #39 all time SS. Similar value to Nomar Garciaparra, Troy Tulowitzki, Travis Jackson, Vern Stephens but over a much longer career.

   29. ronw Posted: December 20, 2018 at 12:09 PM (#5799527)
Whoops, forgot required comment on Posada

C: Jorge Posada (98.0, 49.4, 24.1) - #21 all time C. Similar value to Tenace, Lombardi, Schang, Munson. I could vote for any of them, Schang is on this ballot because he was the best of his generation. Posada is close to the ballot, even more so than Bonds, Sosa, or Kent for me.
   30. caiman Posted: December 22, 2018 at 03:37 PM (#5800157)
I'm not too fond of HOF representation, because it represents more political, rather than real value.

Here's some thoughts, first on the above names and also on my other suggestions:

The above names, per RPA runs produced above the median:

1. Bob Johnson 345.58 runs
2. Lance Berkman 333.87 runs
3. Bobby Bonds 286.36 runs
4. Todd Helton 253.49 runs
5. Sal Bando 241.36 runs
6. Roy Halladay 230.02 runs
7. Mariano Rivera 227.83 runs
8. Jeff Kent 216.00 runs
9. Sammy Sosa 215.57 runs
10. Wally Schang 178.33 runs
11. Andy Pettitte 172.81 runs

Now for some of my 'ALL NON-INCLUDED HOF GRIPE LIST' - all of whom would make the above list:

1. Barry Bonds 1046.19 runs
2. Manny Ramirez 561.38 runs
3. Roger Clemens 537.30 runs
4. Dick Allen 385.92 runs
5. Norm Cash 384.40 runs
6. Jim Wynn 345.29 runs
7. Boog Powell 342.79 runs
8. Fred McGriff 341.02 runs
9. Charlie Keller 324.61 runs
10. Ken Singleton 323.96 runs
11. Pete Rose 315.42 runs
12. Gene Tenace 303.97 runs
13. Mike Mussina 275.97 runs
14. John Olerud 275.41 runs
15. Jose Cruz 247.58 runs
16. Gavvy Cravath 231.17 runs
17. Bob Elliott 203.16 runs
18. Harry Hooper 200.80 runs

There are more, of course, but the above 18 will do for now, for my 'gripe list'
   31. The Honorable Ardo Posted: December 26, 2018 at 02:35 PM (#5800517)
Finally able to post! 2016-17-18 placement in parentheses.

1. Harold Baines. Just kidding :)

1. Mariano Rivera. (new) Noses ahead of Halladay due to the most postseason credit I've ever given. 13 RA in 141 postseason innings, in front of bad defenses, in a high-scoring era, highly leveraged... you get the drift.

2. Roy Halladay. (new) Well above the bar for shortish-career, high-peak starting pitchers. He compares well to Hal Newhouser and (in his career to date) Justin Verlander. More dominant than Dave Stieb in a similarly shaped career.

3. Wally Schang. (5-4-4) A glaring Hall of Merit omission that we can still correct! Durability? 3rd all-time in games caught at his retirement (and still in the top 40 today). Career on-base percentage of .393, higher than Gary Sheffield and Rod Carew - for a catcher who played half his career in the dead-ball era! Defense? Above the AL average in caught-stealing %, at a time when everyone ran.

4. Dick Redding. (off-off-off, but has made my ballot previously) I've been convinced by the latest research that he was a better pitcher than Hilton Smith, and I continue to support Smith's induction. Redding therefore slots in here.

5. Adolfo Luque. (7-5-5) It's uncertain whether his major league career was held back by racism (as I once believed unequivocally, even to the point of ranking him #1) or he was simply a late bloomer. His record in Cuban play is excellent, though a notch below that of inductee and near-contemporary Jose Mendez.

6. Todd Helton. (new) Little things add up. Helton was a very good on-base offensive threat, defensive first baseman, and base runner. Very comparable to inductees Will Clark and Bill Terry in about two seasons' more playing time.

7. Hilton Smith. (10-7-7) Recent Negro Leagues research has confirmed my high opinion of Smith. Excellent peak value and an exceptional hitter too. I see his white contemporary Bucky Walters as the low end of his range. See post #88 in the 2016 discussion thread for more info.

8. Ben Taylor. (8-9-8) Looks similar to John Olerud on paper: smooth glove, consistent line-drive bat, long career. Not quite as much offensive punch as Helton. 1B was a much more important defensive position in Taylor's time, though, which elevates him here.

9. Jorge Posada. (x-10-9) An offensive profile similar to Gary Carter and Ernie Lombardi among catchers. His defense wasn't as wretched as Lombardi's, and I take pitch framing statistics with a grain of salt, but it's a long way from Carter's.

10. Jeff Kent. (11-11-12) A great hitter for his position, and actually an average defensive 2B with the Mets and Giants. His "sieve" phase didn't begin until his move to Houston (and, of course, his late career is freshest in the electorate's mind).

11. Luis Tiant. (off-off-off, but has made my ballot previously) Moves ahead of Tommy John on my head-to-head career retrospective of the two; they were contemporaries and twice teammates (CLE and NYY). Tiant's peak mattered more to me than John's advantage in bulk.

12. Sammy Sosa. (9-8-10) On hitting alone, he's a dead ringer for Chuck Klein, whom we're in no hurry to induct. Klein was a butcher in the field, so Sosa's candidacy depends on how much positive defensive value he provided as a young player. Some sources say a lot, others not so much.

13. Johnny Evers. (off-15-15) I've been inspired to take up his case by Bill James, who believes Evers was a worthy Hall of Fame choice. Very comparable to Willie Randolph, whom we inducted; take Evers's whole career against Randolph's through his last good season, 1987.

14. Johan Santana. (debuted at #11) He has Koufax's peak, but spread out into one more season; in a Pennants Added sense, that's an advantage for Koufax. Koufax has more bulk, even era-adjusted. Santana is too close in my rankings to other short-career, high-peak pitchers (Dizzy Dean, Nap Rucker, Andy Cooper) to justify a higher place.

15. Luke Easter. (off-14-14) Yes, we have a lot of first basemen in the HoM, but I really believe Easter has been overlooked. His three full-time MLB seasons at ages 34-36 look a lot like "Fred McGriff the Devil Ray" (also in his age 34-36 years), despite dealing with chronic foot injuries and the pressures of integration.

16-20: Tommy John (was #13), Buddy Bell, Nomar Garciaparra, Thurman Munson, Kenny Lofton.

21-25: Lee Smith, Andruw Jones, Lance Berkman, Lou Brock, Vic Willis.

Bobby Bonds is in the #26-30 range. He's made my ballot in leaner years.

So, too, is Andy Pettite. I'm not boycotting him, but if Pettite, why not Mark Buehrle? He doesn't stand out enough from a gaggle of pitchers we aren't taking seriously.
   32. kwarren Posted: December 27, 2018 at 02:31 PM (#5800707)
I attempt to balance career peaks, and prolonged excellence equally. Poor seasons at the end or the beginning of a player's career are ignored. Defensive performance is given a lot of weight. Relief pitchers, generally, do not not have the required playing time, skill level, or endurance to make the contribution required for the Hall of Merit. The fact that pitchers typically become relief pitchers because of health concerns, or because somebody decided they could not help their team as a starting pitcher is telling, as is Win Shares & WAR rankings.

1) Harold Baines (who knew) - his WAR7 is the same as Tony Northrup's !!

1A) Roy Halladay - higher WAR than Juan Marichal in 760 fewer IP, his ERA+ is 131 compared to 123

2) Kenny Lofton - his defense and base running contributions are under valued and under appreciated

3) Luis Tiant - pretty much identical career to Don Drysdale

4) Andruw Jones - very similar player to Lofton, better hitter & defender, but not as good a base runner, 26.7 def WAR by age 30

5) Todd Helton - 15th best 1B of all time - of the 14 ahead of him only Palmeiro & Cabrera are not in HOF

6) Buddy Bell - 13th highest WAR all-time among 3B, six gold gloves, 25.2 def WAR by age 33

7) Sammy Sosa - virtually identical WAR7 & JAWS as Ichiro Suzuki

8) Bobby Bonds - WAR7 is identical to Vlad Guerrero's

9) Johan Santana - (better ERA+ than Tom Seaver), great peak, very similar career to Sandy Koufax

10) Andy Pettite - good solid career, not spectacular, low peak

11) Mariano Rivera - best relief pitcher of all time, went from 14th to 11th with post season stats factored in

12) Jeff Kent - his OPS+ is virtually equal to Charlie Gehringer's

13) Lance Berkman - still shows as an active player on Baseball Reference ?

14) Roy Oswalt - short career, but strong peak and very impressive 127 ERA+

15) Miguel Tejada - behind only A-Rod, Ripken, & Banks for career HR's by a shortstop

   33. DL from MN Posted: December 28, 2018 at 10:14 AM (#5800841)
kwarren - need comments on Ben Taylor and Jorge Posada
   34. Chris Fluit Posted: December 28, 2018 at 10:39 AM (#5800844)
kwarren, are you considering all eras of baseball? The oldest players on your ballot are Tiant and Bonds. It seems like there might be somebody from the first century of professional baseball worth voting for, even at this point in the project.
   35. theorioleway Posted: December 29, 2018 at 01:28 PM (#5801048)
1) Cannonball Dick Redding - thanks to Dr. C for discovering how much we had been underselling this pitcher. I love how much I have learned about Negro League players from this project.
2) Mariano Rivera - greatest relief pitcher ever, his postseason performance boosts him ahead of #3, but I understand if the positions are flipped
3) Roy Halladay - easily could have been worthy of a #1 spot on a different ballot
4) Andruw Jones - the defense ranks as elite no matter how it's measured, and he was able to contribute on offense thanks to his power
5) Don Newcombe - once you add up his MLB pitching career, his hitting prowess, war credit, and credit for the delayed start/stress of his career, I believe he really is a hidden gem of baseball history
6) Luis Tiant - moved up relative to last year due to reevaluating remaining pitcher candidates as opposed to remaining position player candidates
7) Sammy Sosa - while probably overrated by most fans/analysts at times, his career provided HOM-level value through the power, defense, and baserunning he showed at various parts of his career
8) Kenny Lofton - unlike Jones, his defense does not rank as elite via all sources (Baseball Gauge)
9) Bobby Bonds - a great all-around player in an era (the 70s) that we could use a few more players for.
10) Thurman Munson - another great player from the 70s who deserves to be in the HOM even though he played at the same time as other great catchers. Also is boosted by great postseason performances.
11) Andy Pettitte - as I believe he played with mostly bad defenders during his career, I therefore have to give him more credit than would have been expected by looking just at his ERA
12) Ben Taylor - Dr. C's MLEs, along with his reputation, make me feel confident that he is HOM-worthy
13) Todd Helton - caution involving Coors, along with a poor showing via Baseball Gauge, drops him to this spot on the ballot
14) Vic Willis - another P from early baseball that I believe has been overlooked, albeit he is not at the same level we currently believe Redding to be
15) Buddy Bell - Dropped his ranking relative to last year due to increased concern regarding 3B of the 60s and 70s might be getting too much positional credit in the WAR framework, but I still think he's a slightly lesser Nettles: Nettles has a career 111 wRC+ in 10,226 PA with excellent defense, while Bell has a career 108 wRC+ in 10,009 PA with superb defense. I think Bell is worthy of the HOM, while Cey and Bando would fall just short.

Kent - top 2B not in the HOM, was in consideration for end of ballot but ultimately a bit short
Santana - probably worthy of the HOM, but the lack of innings leads him just short of my ballot
Posada - doesn't make the ballot due to concerns that his value is overstated due to the limits of measuring his bad catcher defense
   36. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: December 30, 2018 at 06:41 PM (#5801247)
121st consecutive ballot since our inaugural election of 1898 for me.

I use Win Shares as the base for my ranking system, though I am now using a modified version (any negative values are converted into zeroes) of BRAR, FRAR and PRAR for the NA.

I am integrating the conclusions made by DERA with Win Shares for all pitchers.

I do place (to a certain degree) domination at one's position during the player's era. That doesn't mean that domination-by-default will necessarily help you though (Gil Hodges may have been the best first baseman of his era, but he wont make my ballot).

1) Mariano Rivera-RP (n/a): Pretty damn great - may be the greatest reliever of them all.

2) Roy Halliday-P (n/a): If he had been more durable, he could have been an all-time great. As it is, he's a solid HoMer.

3) Jeff Kent-2B (3): Kind of a jerk and not the best fielder in the world, but he could really mash the ball at a key defensive position.

4) Bus Clarkson-SS/3B (6): Looks like the best shortstop of the Forties, which is surprising to me. IMO, Eric would have to be totally off with his projections for Clarkson not to be near the top of everybody's ballot. Shave off 50 WS from his MLE and he still comfortably belongs.

5) Lance Berkman-1B/LF/RF/CF/DH (n/a): Best hitter on my ballot.

6) Andy Pettite-P (n/a): More career than quality, but that's okay.

7) Todd Helton-1B (n/a): Not as good as Berkman, IMO, but good enough.

8) Lee Smith-RP (7): Having his career occur during a major rethinking of his position really distorts his true value, IMO. All things equal, Gossage was better, but not that much better. Never the best for any one season, but consistently among the best for many a year.

9) Billy Wagner-RP (8): Funny, but I thought I would have Hoffman here instead (and higher than Smith). Yet... that dominance more than makes up for the number of career innings.

10) Johan Santana-P (9): Yes, I believe he wasn't as good as Wagner (but it's close). Not as good as the rate stats imply (since it's easier to attain higher numbers in recent years), but his peak can still be compared favorably with almost any other pitcher you can name.

11) Bucky Walters-P (10): The guy had a nice peak, fairly long career, and could hit. Even with a defense adjustment, he stands out. Best ML pitcher of 1939 (extremely close in 1940). Best NL pitcher of 1940 and 1944.

12) Mickey Welch-P (11): Like the hurlers of the 1970s, the generation from the 1880s was rich in talent. On that note, Welch deserves a HoM nod. Best major league pitcher for 1885.

13) Vic Willis-P (12): Willis pitched a ton of innings at an above-average rate for a long enough time for his era. Best major league pitcher for 1899. Best NL pitcher for 1901.

14) Gavvy Cravath-RF (13): I'm giving him MLE credit for 1908-11 (not full credit for '08, since he did play some in the majors that year). Possibly would have been the best ML right fielder for 1910. Best NL right fielder for 1913 and 1914. Best ML right fielder for 1915, 1916, and 1917.

15) Bob Elliott-3B/RF (14): Best third baseman of the Forties. The bridge between the Jimmy Collins-Pie Traynor types and the later ones that didn't have the same defensive responsibilities. He could hit, field, and didn't have a short career when compared to other third basemen throughout history. Best ML third baseman for 1943, 1944, 1947, 1948, and close in 1950. Best NL third baseman for 1949 and 1950.

As for the other newbies, none of them are HoMers, IMO.

Sammy, Lofton, Tiant, Bell, Jones, Bonds, Posada, and Taylor weren't that far away from making my ballot.

   37. kcgard2 Posted: January 01, 2019 at 03:19 PM (#5801565)
2nd year voter, as stated last year, my criteria is a combination of bWAR/fWAR for pitchers, lean more towards fWAR for hitters, giving more weight to peak than longevity, but not super heavy, I think longevity is good too as long as there is *some* meat to speak of. I suppose it's similar to what is teased out by WAA, or Adam Darowski's weighted WAR concept, which I really like, and which he invented specifically for HOF discussions/comparisons, I believe. I am being conservative with the all time ranks for WAA and wWAR below because I don't have the newest data (and because I am calculating wWAR for some of the newer players based on fWAR rather than bWAR and I doubt the scales are exactly the same). I have the historical leaderboard as of 2012, so some current players may have moved the listed players down several spots.

I also believe in slightly stronger position adjustments than WAR makes. I make a small mental adjustment to 1B/corner OF/DH in the negative direction (about -2 for modern players), a small adjustment to 2B/SS in the positive direction (+1 or +2), and grade catchers on a different curve because of the demands of the position. I'm conflicted on CF, and tend to think I should also give them a -1. I'm a strong believer in timelining, but that is not allowed for the HOM. The more I have pondered this, the more I agree that is absolutely the right decision for what the HOM is supposed to be an exercise for.

1. Roy Halladay - One of the best pitchers of his generation, lots of blank ink, run prevention 24% better than league average, FIP 22% better are really, really good marks. I don't think he's inner circle because the bulk just isn't there, but he's the best of this class, IMO. fWAR and bWAR agree on a total of 65, which is a top 50 pitcher all time. 40 WAA is really good (top 50). 175 wWAR puts him ahead of Thome and Rolen form last year's ballot, which honestly surprises if not astounds me. That's no doubt territory. The rest of this year's class is not as impressive.

2. Andruw Jones - last year I had him 4th, this year he jumps to 2nd (I'm surprised he's this high, but again, not a great debuting class). As mentioned previously, I wholeheartedly buy what the defensive metrics are selling, and am fully willing to believe he's the best defensive OF ever. And his offense was good. If he'd been hit by a bus after age 29, rather than just getting out of shape, I think people would consider him an inner circle great. 67 fWAR (#75), 35 WAA (top 100), 173wWAR.

3. Kenny Lofton - followed Jones on last year's ballot, same on this year's. This seems really high, but the numbers I'm looking at support it. 62 fWAR (just outside top 100), 37 WAA (top 100), 142 wWAR.

4. Sal Bando - I don't necessarily agree that a big chunk of value should be going to contemporary SS, or obviously I wouldn't have Bando this high. 56 WAR (top 150), 35 WAA (~100), 132 wWAR is quite good and bumps him to this ranking. More impressive given only 8300 PAs. Followed Lofton on last year's ballot. Because I agree pitchers are somewhat underrepresented, I am trying to bump them up my ballot but I can't get them ahead of these three.

5. Kevin Appier - Repeating myself from last year's ballot for Appier through Tiant (because order is still the same from last year): One of my go-to examples of the most underrated players any of us might remember watching. Run prevention 17% better than avg, FIP 14% better than avg, 2700 IP. 31 WAA and 118 wWAR. 51 fWAR, 55bWAR. Six 5-fWAR seasons beats Willis, Bridges, Tiant, Santana, and Shocker. This is a strong selling point for me, given the support many provide for those pitchers.

6. Tommy John - I think he might actually be underrated because he played so long. His peak wasn't huge with only one seaosn notably better than 5 WAR, but a handful of 5 WAR seasons with a bunch of 3 WAR seasons is still quality. 4700 IP is a ton. 79 fWAR (wow), 62 bWAR and 140 wWAR. The compiler label comes from 22 WAA which admittedly is not impressive.

7. Luis Tiant - I'm just not as impressed as others. Run prevention 13% better than avg is good but far from great, 3500 IP is good, FIP 8% better than avg is merely OK (for HOM discussion purposes). 55 fWAR (#65), 66 bWAR is quite good, 35 WAA, 120 wWAR. The peak isn't much to speak of, IMO. Tiant is very very close to my personal in/out line.

8. Eddie Cicotte - I am moving Cicotte onto my ballot in a nod towards looking for more pitching. As mentioned last year, he was very close to my ballot then in a stronger class. I suppose I will use his missed time due to scandal to bump up to here. 2 of his best 4 season were the last two he pitched. 58 bWAR is solid for a career cut short when still going strong, same for 28 WAA, but the 134 wWAR makes me wonder whether I should even push a spot above Tiant. I will leave here as I generally oppose crediting counterfactuals, my metrics merit this spot without too much credit anyway.

9. Vic Willis - moving above Bob Johnson from last year's order as OF is perhaps overrepresented and pitching under. Similar candidate to Luis Tiant. Run prevention also 13% better than avg, FIP only 6% better, but 4000 IP is a ton to pack into only 13 seasons. 49 fWAR (~100), 67 bWAR. 125 wWAR. 35 WAA. RA WAR obviously likes him FAR better than FIP WAR, but there was less opportunity for FIP differentiation in his time.

10. Lance Berkman - Kinda surprised Berkman shows up on my ballot, because his career was a bit short (7800 PAs) for not having a truly monster peak (it was excellent, though). The more I look at it, he's actually a good comp for Larry Walker, except Berkman did it without the Coors boost. 144 wRC+ is fantastic, nearly .300/.400/.500 for his career. 56 fWAR is a bit light (top 150) but man the peak was really strong. 28 WAA is solid, but the 141 wWAR is what gets him onto my ballot despite small dents for corner OF and desire to not over-represent modern players.

11. Mariano Rivera - best reliever of all time, I think it's probably fair to say that statement is unquestionable, even. I just don't think relievers can provide that much value compared to full time players. The value metrics say he probably doesn't merit this position on the ballot, I can totally understand people having him off ballot. However, the extreme dominance for such a long time and the postseason dominance compel me to place him on my ballot. 56 bWAR from a reliever is astounding (but still only 56 WAR), 33 WAA is quite good, but 101 wWAR is why I don't fault anyone for not listing him. I also understand the people who rate him at the top of the ballot and don't necessarily consider them wrong to do so. Rivera is just a test case for how valuable do you ultimately think that a one-inning reliever can be given such limitation on their playing time.

12. Bob Johnson - 57 WAR (top 150), 32 WAA (top 130ish), 127 wWAR in only 8000 PAs is impressive. Nearly .300/.400/.500 career (though he played in a wonderful offensive environment/era) good for 133 wRC+. Poor defender by the numbers.

14. Todd Helton - The man could hit. .300/.400/.500 career line, but 132 wRC+ isn't spectacular for a 1B. I give him a small ding for being 1B, a small ding for Coors, a small ding for modern player who isn't elite of the elite, WAR doesn't love him 55 fWAR, 61 bWAR are kinda borderline for a guy with a nice full career. 33 WAA is good, 133 wWAR is also good, so he's making my ballot here.

14. Joe Tinker - Loses one spot from last year's ballot. Fantastic defender by the stats, packed 55 fWAR into 7100 PAs despite 93 wRC+. That means 33 WAA (just outside top 100) and 99 wWAR isn't great but to pack into barely 7000 PAs is very good. A small mental boost to all of these for playing SS gets him here.

This last spot is really tough. I like Robin Ventura, and 3B isn't over-represented and I can make his case here, but I think he's just short, and Buddy Bell is also just slightly ahead of him for me. Sammy Sosa is who my metrics point to, but with OF already well represented, I think he also just misses. So it comes down to Jeff Kent vs Johan Santana, both claim a perhaps slightly underrepresented position.

15. Johan Santana - the peak was simply higher than Kent's, and with all the metrics being very close on both of them, Santana achieved it in a shorter career with a greater peak. jeff kent may jump back onto my ballot next year (after placing 14 last year). Quoting from last year: run prevention 26%(!) better than avg, FIP 19% better. 32 WAA and 115 wWAR in that few innings is impressive. 45 fWAR and 51 bWAR quite low because of the innings total.


16. Jeff Kent - just misses out on this year's ballot. Only two great seasons in an admittedly productive career. 56 fWAR (top 150), 32 WAA (top 120ish), 117 wWAR are down-ballot type results.
17. Sammy Sosa - 60 WAR (~120), 124 wRC+ seems underwhelming, though almost 10K PAs is good. 30 WAA. But 138 wWAR thanks to those monster seasons in his peak.
18. Buddy Bell - 62 WAR (~110), but something of a compiler with 108 wRC+ in 10K PAs. Thus only 31 WAA. But 131 wWAR is solid. Arguments that much of his defensive value (which really is prodigious) should go to his SSs. If I adhered to that thought he'd be well farther down.
19. Bobby Bonds - 57 fWAR (~135), very good hitter with 130 wRC+ in 8000 PAs (definitely on the low side). 33 WAA (top 120ish), 130 wWAR. It seems that the offensive players the HOM is picking over are all very tightly bunched in these ranges.
20. Jorge Posada - Same fWAR as Tenace (45: #18 all time among catchers), 123 wRC+ very good for a catcher, 7100 PAs not too few for a catcher, but what makes me choose Posada over Munson, Tenace, and Schang is 100 wWAR. Munson and Tenace in the 80s.
21. Robin Ventura - 57 fWAR (~140), 29 WAA (right on the cusp), but 123 wWAR is what ultimately makes this case. Ventura is a good pick for one of the more underrated players of his generation.

Required mentions:
Ben Taylor - Probably ranks somewhere in the 40s-60s for me. Too many MLB first basement with the same or superior statistical records/profiles accumulated entirely in MLB, even assuming NeL stats for Taylor translate to MLB 100% while doubling or tripling his playing time. Mentioned Jack Fournier as one example of a near perfect contemporary who fits this bill, and I don't think anybody has Jack Fournier on their remotely potential consideration lists.

   38. kcgard2 Posted: January 01, 2019 at 03:20 PM (#5801566)
Others:
Tommy Bridges - shorter career than Tiant or Willis, but better quality. 20% better than average run prevention, 10% better than avg FIP. 2800 IP. 27 WAA and 95 wWAR falls too far short. A clear step behind the pitchers listed above, as well as Shocker and others.
Wally Schang - WAA puts him almost identical to Jorge Posada (22, just outside top 200, but catchers should have a more lenient cutoff), but wWAR absolutely hates him (67). If your best season is 4 WAR, and your typical season is essentially 2 WAR...I suppose I am missing something that others are seeing here. Is it just the best among his contemporaries?
Addie Joss - has the Koufax/Santana profile. Extremely dominant for not very long (8.5 seasons, 2300 IP). Run prevention 30% better than avg (holy wow), FIP also 13% in a time when there was perhaps less room for differentiation on FIP. Not quite enough bulk for me, though, his case is slightly growing on me.
Babe Adams - 3000 IP with 14% better than avg run prevention, 17% better than avg FIP which is quite impressive in that era. 50 WAR in both systems, 27 WAA, 110 wWAR is a bit behind several other pitching candidates. FWIW there's almost no black ink here. These are the types of guys I think just fall below the line, and are the definition of borderline at best, but personal weightings or biases make them pet candidates. I can see the cases, they just don't quite do it for me.
Roy Oswalt - this is someone who may deserve a better look. If only his career wasn't so short, just a little longer than Santana's. Still he packed almost 33 WAA in his 2200+ innings and combined with 120 wWAR are numbers that can conceivably get him down ballot for me on future votes. I also personally liked watching him pitch.
Miguel Tejada - A fun player, but not close to a ballot. 40 fWAR, 16 WAA, and 79 wWAR (not good at all for HOM purposes).
Andy Pettitte - have to admit he is close to a ballot spot for me. 61 bWAR, 30 WAA, 120 wWAR are down ballot numbers. He doesn't have the feel, for whatever that's worth. Only two seasons breaking 4 WAR is why, that speaks to the notable lack of peak, though the two seasons he did have were well above 4. Apparently being a consistent 3 WAR guy with two big seasons gets you farther than I thought. By my reckoning Mark Buehrle is a slightly superior pitcher, with 8 seasons of 4+ WAR, but the end result comes out remarkably similar. Then again, Buehrle retired early while still a perfectly effective pitcher.
   39. Carl Goetz Posted: January 02, 2019 at 10:32 AM (#5801708)
Ok, I haven't had the time I had hoped over Christmas break to put more thought into this so my preliminary ballot from a couple weeks ago stands.
I'm using Baseball Gauge Custom WAR/WAA/WAG with BBRef Offense; 75% BBref Pitching & 25% FIP; 70% DRA/30% DRS/TZ. Score uses WAR and WAA (No negatives) for Career Value Score and WAA and WAG (Both no negatives) for Peak. I give postseason credit to Pitchers and Catchers for all who played due to wear and tear. All other players get credit if they excelled only. I give conservative WWI & WWII credit. I also give a bump for catching based on % playing time in each given year plus I adjust for Marchi pitcher handling. Ties in overall score go to the player with better peak score.

This is a list of everyone I consider a reasonable HoMer. I'll note where my personal in/out currently sits. Let me know if I forgot about somebody who needs a comment. I'd also happily comment on anyone else who isn't required if you want one on your favorite player.
1 Mariano Rivera - Pretty comfortable with him here. Wonderful postseason record definitely moved him to the front of the line for me.
2 Dick Redding - Great career totals and not a bad peak either.
3 Thurman Munson - Great postseason numbers breaks the tie with Schang.
4 Roy Halladay - Incredible pitcher. Probably would have needed to have 5 extra 2-4 WAR seasons at the end to catch Redding on my list.
5 Wally Schang - I rank him ahead of Santop and Bresnahan who were both his contemporaries. I also have him ahead of Joe Mauer who I consider a pretty easy selection as well.
6 Buddy Bell - I feel pretty well established as a Bell supporter. Great defense, nice bat.
7 Art Fletcher - I'm pretty sold on DRA for defense. That said, I used 50% DRA (instead of my usual 70%) and still got Fletcher here.
8 Joe Tinker - As with Fletcher, I dialed back DRA and again, still here. He's my top pick among Tinker to Evers to Chance. All 3 are on this list, but Tinker is the best.
9 Bobby Veach - Another DRA darling. I know of no reason to scale back Detroit OFs from this era so he gets my standard treatment.
10 Todd Helton - Fantastic player. Solid HoMer in both peak and career scores. Its a shame the writers have no idea how to adjust for Coors.
11 Ben Taylor - Nice career score. I rate him a couple slots higher than overall score suggests because I believe his peak may be a little better than smoother MLEs would suggest.
12 Andruw Jones - Probably the best defensive CF I've seen play.
13 Tommy Leach - Great defensive CF and 3B. Can't say that about anyone else. He comes out strong in both career score and peak score.
14 Kenny Lofton - Career score of 49.3 and peak score of 49.8; perfectly balanced.
15 Santana, Johan - Excellent Peak.
16 Gene Tenace - Great peak as well. Really only 8 seasons of solid HoM contributions, but they were a great 8 years.
17 Sammy Sosa - Top RF on my list.
18 Ned Williamson - I was an Ezra Sutton supporter way back in the day in the Williamson v Sutton debates. My current system says I was wrong and Williamson was the better player.
19 Dave Bancroft
20 Bobby Bonds - Still a solid HoMer, but I feel he has some waiting to do.
21 Andy Pettitte - There's a tight clump of pitchers coming soon. Pettitte added a lot to his case with sheer volume of postseason at around his career norm level.
22 Ray Dandridge
23 Bus Clarkson
24 Frank Chance - Great peak
25 Bob Johnson - Gave some PCL credit at beginning of his career.
26 Chet Lemon - Fell through my cracks up until now. Decent career score and strong peak score. I'd have him in.
27 Orel Hershiser
28 Kevin Appier - Another guy I watched play and never realized how good he was.
29 Bernie Williams
30 Luis Tiant - I expected Tiant to finish higher when all was put together. I expected to put more pitchers in my top 15 because I feel we are short. The problem is the distribution of pitching is less sharp than some other positions. I end up with a lot more guys right at my borderline for pitchers. Even with a pitching shortage, I can't put a guy right at my borderline ahead of guys at other positions who are clear "ins" for me.
31 Babe Adams
This is the start of my gray area. I'd have the top 31 in my personal HoM.
32 Jose Cruz Sr
33 Roy White
34 Tony Phillips
35 Jim Sundberg
36 Brian Giles
37 Harry Hooper
38 Jeff Kent - I'm probably in on Kent but he's very borderline.
39 Jorge Posada - Same as Kent, but there's 4 guys I have ahead of him at his position.
40 Tim Hudson
41 Dwight Gooden
42 Don Newcombe
43 Urban Shocker
This is the end of my gray area. I'm definitely out on the rest, but wouldn't complain if any got elected.
44 Ernie Lombardi
45 Gavvy Cravath
46 Johnny Evers
47 John Olerud
48 Lance Berkman
49&50; Ron Cey & Sal Bando - I have these 2 in a virtual dead heat with the not yet eligible David Wright and the still active Evan Longoria. Pending the rest of Longo's career, I'm currently inclined to leave all 4 out, but all are/were terrific players.
51 Cesar Cedeno
52 Sam Rice
   40. kcgard2 Posted: January 02, 2019 at 11:13 AM (#5801736)
Carl, out of curiosity where is Sammy Sosa for you? Seems hard to believe (for me) that he's below guys like Phillips, Roy White, Hooper, Rice. Actually, how did you get Phillips and White that high?? You don't have comments but I'm definitely missing something on those two.
   41. Chris Fluit Posted: January 02, 2019 at 12:54 PM (#5801780)
39. Carl Goetz Posted: January 02, 2019 at 10:32 AM (#5801708)
17 Sammy Sosa - Top RF on my list.
   42. JoeD has the Imperial March Stuck in His Head Posted: January 05, 2019 at 10:54 PM (#5802720)
Hey guys, looks like 22 ballots so far (I be off by 1 or 2 either way).

I’m going to send an email to the group asking for more, but I’d also like to extend to Wednesday if that’s ok.

I’ve had some things come up, and long-story short, I’m in Florida took a last minute family trip this week and we extended it a day. I won’t be able to get a ballot in by Monday night. I don’t really think it will hurt anything to push two more days. And maybe we get a few others. Thanks!
   43. Willie Mays Hayes Posted: January 08, 2019 at 09:19 PM (#5803570)
Thankful for the extension(s). Without further ado...

I use BBRef WAR as my metric of choice. I lean peak, particularly the five consecutive year variety, though players who exhibit a consistent level of greatness, without too many "hanging on" seasons get their just due in my system as well.

1. Todd Helton - If we called baseball players technically sound, Helton would be the platonic ideal. Sublime five year peak gets him to the top of my system...though not by much over:
2. Roy Halladay - Strange shape to his career probably hurts him a tiny bit in my system, but he's still a comfortable #2. I give Doc a ton of credit for re-inventing himself the way he did.
3. Andruw Jones - I'm a peak guy, and his was beastly, even if you regress the defense. An absolute joy to watch play center field in his prime.
4. Mariano Rivera - Had NYY season tix most of my life. No one was more enjoyable to watch work than Rivera. More men have walked on the moon than scored against Rivera in the postseason - in over 140 innings. That in and of itself isn't HOM worthy, but Mo is.
5. Buddy Bell - Monster peak. I know there are some questions about the replacement level for 3B during his time, but even discounting a bit, he is comfortably here.
6. Kenny Lofton - Not as peaky as Edmonds, but more than enough consistent value throughout the career.
7. Sal Bando - Great peak. Probably hung around too long, but he certainly belongs in. We really need a couple more third basemen.
8. Sammy Sosa - Slow start to his career hurts his case, as did the tail end. There really isn't too much more to Sosa other than the peak.
9. Johan Santana - Proof that you need more than a five year peak to score well in my system, but damn, what a peak it was.
10. Vic Willis - His down year in 1900 hurts him in my system. If 1900 were say a 3.5 WAR year, he'd move up.
11. Bobby Bonds - Has a bonafide case for selection. Not nearly as good as his son, obviously. Great player in the beginning of his career, before the booze and injuries took their toll.
12. Kevin Appier - Tremendous in Kansas City. Seemed to beat the Yankees anytime I saw him pitch in the Bronx growing up. Hurt a bit by the malaise at the tail end.
13. Luis Tiant - Very close to Appier in my system. Were he a bit more consistent year-to-year, he would fare better.
14. John Olerud - Just a consistent hitter who provided excellent defense at first base. Didn't have tremendous home-run power, but something of a Keith Hernandez-lite. Something of a late peak guy, which didn't jive with my memory.
15. Thurman Munson - We also need more catchers. Catchers require an adjustment in my system, and I might even be a bit conservative with it.


Disclosures:
Jeff Kent - Excellent hitter, regardless of position. His peak preceded the defensive decline, which helps his cause.
Ben Taylor - On reputation, right with Olerud. I'm choosing to split the difference, and give Olerud the benefit of the doubt. Taylor could be on my ballot just as well.
Jorge Posada - Catcher adjustment doesn't account for the hit from framing data. In the top 40, but needs some new positive defensive findings to move up.

Other Newbies:
Pettitte, Berkman and Oswalt could find some down ballot support from me in leaner future years, but likely will remain on the periphery.
   44. Michael J. Binkley's anxiety closet Posted: January 08, 2019 at 10:23 PM (#5803581)

“If we could reduce this entire exercise to one absolute exumenical equation considering every possible factor in evaluating each player (e.g. parks, timelines, leagues, position, peak value, teammates, career value etc.) this project would be much less interesting.

That doesn't mean we should ever stop trying to create such statistical mechanisms for our own use.”

After lurking around the HoM since around “1930,” and not voting due to never being perfectly happy with whatever analysis system I was tinkering around with at the time, I discovered the above quote by Brian H. in the archives of the 1910 Ballot Discussion thread. Realizing that I would probably end up changing my system every year, which I pretty much have done (and observing that behavior in a number of well-respected long-time voters), I finally decided to vote starting in 2012.

For this reason, I also encourage any other lurkers who have considered voting but have so far refrained from doing so to give it a shot, even if you have differing opinions. Such opinions are always welcomed, as long as they are well-reasoned.

On to my ideology/methodology:

I am a peak voter at heart. I believe that a HoF/HoM should be a Hall of Greatness, not a strict Hall of Value. But, nearly all of my bases for rankings involve career numbers, although most do have a peak emphasis.
Because I use a WAR number as a basis for all my calculations, I of course call my system PEACE (Player Excellence And Career Evaluation).

I start by averaging bWAR and gWAR for all position players. For pitchers I factor in fWAR equally as well. I also factor in catcher framing runs, using Max Marchi numbers from 1948-87, BP from 1988-2012, regressing both those numbers by 1/3, and from 2013 on, using BB-Ref numbers.

I adjust these resulting WAR for each position player by a rolling nine-year median deviation from overall average, similar to Dan Rosenheck’s adjustment to replacement level in his WARP system. Thus, shortstops almost throughout history get a boost due to the “feast or famine” nature of the position, particularly during the 1970s and 1980s. DH’s also get a boost because never in their existence has the median DH for a year had a WAA at or above 0. However, I do force-adjust so that DH is never “easier” than 1b, 2b within .2 of SS, and corner OF within .4 of CF.

I then adjust these WAR numbers by each league’s historical batting or pitching standard deviations, based upon the work of Dr. Chaleeko. Since WAA is league dependent at most sites (e.g. WAR=WAA for the UA in 1884), I reverse-engineer a league-independent WAA from my final WAR numbers.

I then plug each player’s mWAR (the “m” standing for “my,” “Michael,”, “Mengel” (my real last name), “mean,” “median-adjusted,” or whatever other word starting with “m” you feel like that applies through 4 different peak-weighted metrics:

1) a JAWS-type system, although not divided by 2;
2) WAA*3;
3) a peak-rate (based upon playing time) salary estimator/$1M; and
4) Pennents Added *100, using Rob Wood’s formula, although without the sliding replacement level

I give catchers a 1/3 bonus to these metrics for the time they spent playing catcher.

I then add one peak-only component: (WAR/750 PA or 275 IP)*13.3.

Finally, I give bonus points for the following:

1) Players appearing on my yearly MMP ballots, with the MMP getting 10 pts, decreasing in equal increments for every subsequent player.
2) The best position player and pitcher (hitting not included for this part for pitchers) in each major league, including “Negro League” awards for 1901-1948 are awarded 5 points.
3) Each player that appears on my mWAR All-Star team (starting line-up at all positions, full rotation based upon historical norms, and a relief pitcher for 1946 on) receive 2 points.
4) A post-season bonus of the players total cWPA *30.

The reason I uses so many inputs/analysis methods is basically the” wisdom of crowds” reasoning – while any single input/analysis might be better than the best, the amalgamation of all of them is most likely to be better than any single one chosen at random. Also, it tends to balance things out to make things “fair-to-all-eras.” If I used just the salary estimator, almost all 1880s pitchers would be deemed meritorious. If I didn’t include peak rate, it would be much harder for modern pitchers to get in based upon less usage compared to historical norms.

I take the total number for each player and divide it by 5. A borderline candidate will end up being right about 100, which makes it easy for me to compare PEACE on a scale similar to Hall Rating, or CHEWS+ or MAPES+.
   45. Michael J. Binkley's anxiety closet Posted: January 08, 2019 at 10:28 PM (#5803582)
On to the ballot (the numbers in parentheses are the PEACE+ scores):

1. Dick Redding (128.99) – Mea culpa. In the past, according to previous MLEs, I had compared Redding to a poor man’s Dwight Gooden (who is in my PHoM). But Eric Chalek’s updated MLEs far exceed that projection, and Redding is a clear HoMer. After countless runner-up finishes, hopefully this is the year Cannonball gets his due.

2. Roy Halladay (122.15) – The best pitcher between the primes of the 1990’s inner-circle quartet and the rise of Clayton Kershaw.

3. Art Fletcher (120.70) – DRA absolutely loves his defense. As Dr. Chaleeko describes him, Ozzie Smith without the baserunning. That part’s certainly true, and although it’s debatable who was the better defender, like I said, DRA loves Fletcher’s defense, while TZ prefers Ozzie, Fletcher was a better hitter, posting a 99 OPS+ compared to Ozzie’s 87. I do have Ozzie ranked higher overall due to the horrible level of median shortstop play during the 1970’s and 1980’s.

4. Mariano Rivera (119.95) – Yes, he is the greatest relief pitcher ever. But I am in the camp that considers relief pitching a role, not a separate position (future election aside: DH is a position). He has the greatest post-season bonus in my system of any player in history. Without it he would be off ballot – although just barely, either 16th or 17th.

5. Joe Tinker (118.55) – Dr. Chaleeko is one-half of an excellent HoF blog called the Hall of Miller and Eric. His partner in blogging, Howard Miller, who works full-time as university professor, had an article last week where he discussed something he does with his students every year, the gist of which is, as 19 year-olds, if they believed everything that they believed as four year-olds were still true, they might be idiots (e.g. believing in the Tooth Fairy). The same principle applies to the next 15 years, too, although you may not realize it to the same degree as the change from 4 to 19. Well, 15 years ago, when I was 30, I was fairly well immersed in sabermetric basics and the articles of the time. For example Keith Woolner had shown us that Catcher’s ERA didn’t really exist and the general consensus was that Tinkers, Evers and Chance were only in the HoF due to “Baseball’s Sad Lexicon.” Well, maybe the poem did have a role, but the view was certainly that none of them merited HoF recognition. Now I’m 45, and it seems that pitch-framing skills have been identified in catchers and a general appreciation of defense has gained traction over the past 15 years. And I have Tinker and Chance as both worthy of election, and although I have Johnny Evers on the outside, he’s within my “margin of error” and I have no issue with someone who votes for him. Tinker was an excellent shortstop, and at a 96 OPS+, he wasn’t as much of an offensive liability as some other enshrined/ HoF ballot-receiving SS such as Maranville, Aparicio and unfortunately yes, Vizquel. And who knows, in 15 years the pendulum may have shifted back again.

6. Wally Schang (116.68) – A relative OBP machine for a catcher in the 1910’s, with a 117 OPS+. I have him as 18th best eligible C.

7. Don Newcombe (115.00) – He had everything working against him – integration, war interrupting his prime, playing in one of the lowest standard-deviation eras for pitchers ever. Give him credit for all of those, as well as factoring in being one of the best hitting pitchers ever, he becomes an obvious selection that I hope we can make while he is still with us.

8. Bert Campaneris (114.69) – As I mentioned in the description of my system, I believe for most of baseball history, shortstops have been undervalued because the median SS would have negative WAA values. One of the greatest periods of this was the late 1960’s to the late 1980’s, with the largest median adjustments coming in the late 60’s to early 70’s, which just happened to coincide with Campaneris’s best years (note the fact that there was slightly more adjustment for these years than the late 70’s/early 80’s is part of the reason I support Campaneris, but don’t support Concepcion, the other being that the underlying numbers pre-adjustment were just better for Dagberto.

9. Carlos Moran (113.51) – Yes, he was a lefty third baseman which causes all sorts of logistical issues. Eric Chalek, when he created his latest round of MLE’s usually tweaks them based upon where he figured they would’ve played in MLB. For Moran, he did create 3b MLE’s, but also projected him into CF as well. He also has Josh Gibson transitioning fairly early in his career from catcher to 1B. While I understand why Eric does this, I lean the other way – I give Negro League players credit for the positions that they actually played, in Moran’s case mostly 3b. Eric’s base MLE’s for Moran at 3b show him to be near the borderline. But the MLE’s start in 1902. Since then, the Seamheads NgL dadtabase has added the Cuban League seasons for 1900 and 1901, in which Moran played comparably to how he did in 1902. I only give him credit for the 1901 season, but that easily helps vault him onto my ballot.

10. Kenny Lofton (111.45) – Had a very underrated peak at the beginning of his career, partially obscured by the fact that his best year was 1994. He then went on a stretch of five seasons of around 5 mWAR each, tapering down to just under a 3 mWAR average for the next 6 years.

11. Heavy Johnson (11.32) – I understand Eric’s trepidation for support for Heavy. There are some years missing from the record, including some of his developing years at catcher. But the one main documented year at catcher, 1920, he was the best catcher in baseball according to my system. But most of his prime was spent in RF and almost all of that was documented, except for 1921. Johnson would’ve had to have been a replacement-level or worse in every undocumented year for him to be even close to non-HoM worthy in my system. It’s highly unlikely that this is the case.

12. Dave Bancroft (110.71) – another underrated SS.

13. Sammy Sosa (110.60) – He obviously had the peak I love. But he also was a very good defender in his younger years.

14. Gavvy Cravath (110.55) - As our founder has stated, he’s the type of player this project was designed to find. He had a 151 OPS+ in his time in the majors. Yes, the NL lacked hitting other hitting stars in that era, but it was also a low standard deviation era for hitters. Yes, he took advantage of his stadium, but so did a lot of players (looking at you, Boggs). I’m not going to penalize him because others didn’t do the same. Needs minor league credit to place here, but he’s deserving of it in my view.

15. Thurman Munson (110.45) - Munson gets overshadowed by his more deserving 1970’s catching counterparts (Bench, Fisk), but he’s clearly a deserving HoMer. He was a good hitter and had above average defense (both conventional and framing) and excelled in the postseason.

16. Urban Shocker
17. Charlie Buffinton
18. Buddy Bell - in my PHoM
19. Dizzy Dean
20. Eddie Cicotte
21. George Uhle
22. Frank Chance
23. Andrew Jones - in my PHoM
24. Bill Byrd
25. Fred Dunlap
26. Johan Santana - not yet in my PHoM, but over the line in the frontlog
27. Babe Adams
28. Dwight Gooden
29. Silvio Garcia
30. Luis Tiant - in my PHoM
31. Jeff Kent - in my PHoM
32. Nomar Garciaparra
33. Ben Taylor - in my PHoM
34. Tommy Bond
35. Bob Johnson
-------------------------------------current PHoM line---------------------------------------------------
36. Ernie Lombardi
37. John Olerud
38. Albert Belle
39. Kevin Appier
40. Ned Williamson
41. Bobby Bonds - will probably eventually make PHoM, slightly hurt in my system due to lower mWAR rate stats
42. Lance Berkman
43. Todd Helton
44. Hurley McNair
45. Marv Williams
46. Vic Willis
47. Harry Hooper
48. Johnny Evers
49. Andy Pettitte
50. Luke Easter
51. Jorge Posada - hurt by poor framing numbers
52. Gene Tenace
--------------5% below my PHoM line – anyone above this line I consider within my “margin of error” or okay for eventual HoM induction -----------------
   46. kwarren Posted: January 09, 2019 at 11:26 AM (#5803660)
15. Thurman Munson - We also need more catchers. Catchers require an adjustment in my system, and I might even be a bit conservative with it.
Why do we need more catchers. They typically do not play as much as players at other positions, and therefore have less value. Similar to relief pitchers and starting pitchers but on a far lesser scale. I would also be interested in what is the adjustment you make in your system.
   47. ronw Posted: January 09, 2019 at 01:02 PM (#5803736)
kwarren:

One of the ballot counters here. For us to count your ballot, you need to consider all eras. Did your response on the discussion thread that you considered Wally Schang, Tommy Bridges, Bob Johnson, and Addie Joss mean that you did consider all eras, or just those four players from before 1960? I’m personally interested to see if you considered Dick Redding in light of revised data.

Also, it is a technicality, but please post your comments on Taylor and Posada to this actual ballot thread. It is difficult for counters to realize that you posted required comments over here (in fact I just discovered it, and there are other counters).

Thanks for participating, sorry to be a stickler, but it has worked these past 148 “years” and we counters are traditionalists. We all had trouble when those pitchers shifted to overhand, not to mention that 1893 mound distance change that OCF will still not acknowledge.

Right now, your ballot is not being counted, so please correct by the end of the day.

Thanks.
   48. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: January 09, 2019 at 02:02 PM (#5803770)
Well, for once I’m not getting this done at the exact last minute. I actually finished the rankings last night and I was just editing the ballot today.

I thought this was going to be a pretty straightforward 3-newcomer year. But Helton turned out to be a little less impressive than I expected, and Berkman significantly more so, and things came out a little different.

Rivera, Halladay and Berkman make my PHoM this year.

My ranking system isn’t that specific. It’s based more on BB-ref’s WAR than anything else, but I still have WS and old WARP totals on my spreadsheet. I use Humphrey’s DAR in some cases, but I can’t say I’ve applied it systematically.

I also try to include both peak and career candidates, but tend to lean more towards the career when push comes to shove. When I talk about WS or WAR rate, that’s per PA.

I don’t do steroid-related boycotts.

1. Mariano Rivera (new) He’s the best there is at what he does – by a LOT. Looking at my voting history, if I had Gossage ahead of Stieb, it feels roughly equivalent to have Rivera ahead of Halladay. Makes my PHoM this year.

2. Roy Halladay (new) Highly qualified by whatever measure you look at. Makes my PHoM this year.

3. Dick Redding (8) Those are some pretty nice MLEs. Definitely justifies moving him ahead of the rest of the backlog. Made my PHoM in 1973.

4. Bobby Bonds (4) While Edmonds is clearly better, especially in the field, I think they are pretty comparable over all. More of a prime candidate than anything else, but his peak and career values aren’t bad either. Even with Smith’s election, I still think 1970’s OF are a bit underrepresented. Made my PHoM in 2008.

5. Ben Taylor (7) A solid candidate who might have been overlooked. 3rd-best 1B in the Negro Leagues, a good hitter with an outstanding defensive rep. I think the most recent MLEs validate this ranking, so I’m basically keeping him steady. I have him as the best overall 1B of his era – Sisler was better at his best, but that just didn’t last long enough. Made my PHoM in 2009.

6. Luis Tiant (6) He had some outstanding years, and contributed long enough to build up a decent career value. There were a lot of great pitchers in his era, but that happens sometimes. Made my PHoM in 2005.

7. Bus Clarkson (5) Dr. C’s recent evaluation tempers his defensive value a tad, but his offense is still impressive. Parallels Elliot’s career, but with war credit he comes out ahead, and he presumably had more defensive value. If the old MLEs are accurate, he’s worthy of a high ballot placement. Made my PHoM in 1997.

8. Phil Rizzuto (10) Accounting for the malaria as an effect of the war helped him move up a couple of spots. With war credit, it’s pretty clear he’d have more career value than Stephens. Peak is a different issue, but he’s not that far behind Stephens, and he did have a few excellent seasons. Might deserve Minor League credit for 1940 (I’m not counting it at the moment.) Made my PHoM in 1997.

9. Lance Berkman (new) Definitely was under the radar for me when he was playing, but with a 144 OPS+, a good defensive rep, and a lot of postseason value, he scores very well. Makes my PHoM this year.

10. Kenny Lofton (11) This is mostly because of his total WAR, but he does generally look better than the other CF candidates. I found it interesting that if you rank their seasonal WAR scores, Lofton beats Edmonds for Years 1-3, then Edmonds is in front for 4-10, and Lofton for the rest. I’d like to get some clarity about his defense.

11. Bob Johnson (12) I'm impressed by his consistency, he was an above-average player every year for 13 seasons, plus he got started very late in the bigs, so I will give him at least 1 year of minor league credit. I think the era considerations have been a little overblown, and I still don’t think Joe Medwick was any better than Bob. Made my PHoM in 1992.

12. Todd Helton (new) I was assuming he’d be a little higher, but while he has a great peak, there’s also some padding on his career. Not dissimilar to Cash, but 5 very strong seasons are worth more than one great (fluke?) year.

13. Andruw Jones (14) Very comparable to Lofton, comes in just a bit behind him because the defensive numbers are vital to his argument, and at least somewhat overinflated.

14. Tommy Leach (13) Doesn’t do great by WAR, although a lot of the other 3B candidates are in the hard-to-differentiate 70s clump. Excellent fielder at important positions, OK hitter. One of the most complete players on the ballot. Made my PHoM in 1940.

(14A Andre Dawson)

15. Tommy Bridges (15) Very hard to differentiate between Bridges and Cone. Like Johnson, extremely consistent, which I feel is a strength. I am giving him war credit, but not minor-league credit.

16. Gavvy Cravath (17) With the basic 07, 09-11 additions, this is where I have him. A better peak than Johnson, but less consistent. WAR isn't quite as fond of him as WS, but he compares well to Kiner & Keller. Made my PHoM in 1987.

(16A David Cone)

17. Norm Cash (16) A lot of good years, but I really think he's the Beckley of the 60s, with a shorter career (although that's not really much of a criticism), and the fluke year. Even if you take 1961 out, he’s still clearly ahead of Cepeda and Perez in WS and WARP rate. He really does look pretty similar to Hernandez, and for some reason has 6 Win Shares Gold Gloves to Keith's 1. Made my PHoM in 2003.

(17A Ralph Kiner, 17B John McGraw)

18. Don Newcombe (20) Basically the only pitcher candidate left from the 50s, and he has an interesting argument – see the discussion in the Belle thread about alcoholism. And he gets less attention from the HoF people than Gil Hodges or Allie Reynolds. Read about the Yankees and Dodgers in the 50s, and tell me who people thought was a better pitcher.

But I have to admit that even with all the extra credit, there isn’t quite enough to keep him ahead of Cone and Bridges.

19. John Olerud (18) I understand the comment that McGriff looked more like a Hall of Famer, but Olerud was just perpetually overlooked. He clearly had significantly more defensive value than McGriff, and the offensive difference is not huge (OPS+ 134-128). Putting him ahead of Sosa may be pushing it, but maybe not.

20. Thurman Munson (19) On the one hand, yeah, I probably have been underrating catchers, but when I look at the individual candidates, they still don’t seem ballot-worthy. Didn’t hit quite as well as Bresnahan, but Roger also
accumulated a fair amount of hanging-around value, even by WAR.

21. Bill Monroe (21) Has dropped, partly because of new guys, but also because those 1912-14 numbers don’t look good. A good player at an important defensive position, with a great reputation for his fielding. People like to promote the 1890s as underrepresented, but that doesn't mean the 00s and 10s are overrepresented. (Well, maybe on my ballot, but not in the HoM.) Made my PHoM in 1939.

22. Sammy Sosa (22) The more I look at him, the more “meh” I feel. The most recent version of WAR were kinder to Bonds and Johnson, who were more consistently good. Has a slightly higher peak, but he was also allowed to hang around longer. 609 homers are impressive, but a 128 OPS+ is not.

23. Johan Santana (25) Comparable to Dean but just a bit more of a peak, but I don’t think he’s quite up to Newcombe with applicable credit. I do think it’ll take more time to evaluate how to value 21st century starters, so this could change.

24. Jeff Kent (23) A little lower than I thought he’d be, but he didn’t have that many great years. Seems pretty similar to Lazzeri to me. Kent & Olerud missed out on being a left side with both the Blue Jays & the Mets.

25. Cesar Cedeno (24) Outside of the big total WAR difference, I don’t see a lot differentiating him in value from Lofton & Jones. (Yeah, that’s a pretty big ‘outside of’)

26. Dizzy Dean (27) Does have a really good peak argument by some metrics, but he stands out less by WAR than he did by the other ones.

(26A Sam Thompson)

27. Vern Stephens (26) Close to Rizzuto, but with the wartime discount and the sudden dropoff after 1950, not quite there.

28. Urban Shocker (29) He is a good candidate, but his career is a bit too short, even with the ½ year war credit.

29. Bob Elliott (34) I’m comfortable putting him ahead of the 70s group now. He’s got a case for being the best 3B in baseball in the late 40s, those guys simply don’t.

30. Bernie Williams (32) A really good player when he was at his best, but everything says the defense was so bad in the second half of his career that it keeps him away from the ballot.

31. Hilton Smith (31) For some reason, I’d actually taken him out of my consideration set. Not yet sure what his MLE really means, so this is sort of a placeholder ranking.

(31A Charley Jones, 31B Roger Bresnahan)

32. Bucky Walters (33) Would be higher, but when you consider a wartime discount, his 115 ERA+ really isn’t impressive.

33. Tony Lazzeri (28) He was the best backlog MLB candidate at his position until Kent showed up. Compare him to Larry Doyle, who some people used to vote for. Their career lengths are similar, Doyle was a better hitter, but not much, and Lazzeri was a much better fielder.

(33A George Sisler, 33B Rollie Fingers)

34. Wally Schang (30) Yes, I was absolutely overlooking him. But I still don’t think he’s ahead of Bresnahan, and I don’t have Roger in either. The OPB is truly impressive, but a lot of it was accumulated in the ‘20s, not the ‘10s.

35. Fred McGriff (37) I beat up on him a bit in the Olerud comment, but he still did have a long, consistent career.

(35A Graig Nettles)

36. Kevin Appier (36) Similar to Cone, but definitely behind him.

37. Jack Clark (35) An overlooked quality player.

(37A Hughie Jennings, 37B Pete Browning)

38. Tommy John Gave him a closer look, and I had been underrating him. Had more of a peak than I realized.

(38A Nellie Fox)

39. Jose Cruz (39) Had a wide variety of skills, and had a very tough home park to deal with.

40. Eddie Cicotte (38) It’s close between him and Willis, but that’s not an era lacking in pitchers.

41. Wally Berger
42. Vic Willis (40)
43. Bobby Veach
44. Joe Tinker
45. George Van Haltren Wins the “Wait, why did I have this guy so high?” award. I don’t reject all peak arguments, but I’d take his consistency over Duffy’s big years. Made my PHoM in 1972.

46. Albert Belle
47. Dolf Luque
48. Dave Bancroft
49. Tony Perez
50. Andy Pettitte

51. Orlando Cepeda
52. Sal Bando
53. Pedro Guerrero
54. Carl Mays
55. Gene Tenace

56. Johnny Evers
57. Buddy Bell: Like I’ve said, I definitely have a lower opinion of the gang of 70s third basemen than a good portion of the electorate. There’s already several enshrined, and then you’ve got Bando, Cey and Bell all at the same time. And even within that, I don’t see any particular reason to pick out Bell.
58. Billy Wagner
59. Bert Campaneris
60. Elston Howard: WAR absolutely hates him, giving him almost no value outside of his 4-year peak. Even with credit for military service, the slow pace of integration & being stuck behind Yogi, you can’t get that record into a HoM-worthy career. Other metrics are not so harsh, but I can’t just ignore something so striking.

Made my PHoM in 2004. Have to admit I probably made a mistake here. Looking at my voting history, this probably would have wound up with Ralph Kiner in my PHoM.

Not in Top 60:

Jorge Posada. Would be my next ranked catcher behind Howard. He was an excellent hitter and had a long career, but all of the other indicators (defense, pitch framing & postseason play) point against him.
   49. Esteban Rivera Posted: January 09, 2019 at 03:22 PM (#5803811)
2019 ballot:

It’s been four years since I last submitted a ballot. Went ahead and reviewed my notes from the last elections I participated in and also built a consideration set using the different metrics available and then narrowed that down to a list of ballot finalists. From there, I placed them as best as I could.

1. Roy Halladay – Tops the ballot this year.

2. Tommy Bond – His dominance during his time places him on the ballot.

3. Dick Redding – A nod to the excellent work that Dr. Chaleeko does. For many past elections I’ve said that I still feel uncertain about Redding’s numbers. The translations worked up by Dr. Chaleeko finally give me a bit more confidence to put him on my ballot. Still have a feeling that the information missing will bring down the translation a bit, but still within a ballot worthy zone.

4. Sammy Sosa – Numbers inflated somewhat due to era but still an impressive run.

5. Luis Tiant – In past years I had not voted for him citing that my problem was the lack of innings in an era where most great pitchers had the bulk. But after taking a closer look at him, I see him now as a lower peak version of Marichal. At this stage of the process, I’ve decided that it’s enough to get him on my ballot.

6. Johan Santana – Lack of innings in terms of career, but a dominating peak and among the best of his time.

7. Mariano Rivera – Even with an adjustment he lands comfortably on the ballot.

8. Thurman Munson – Tops my catcher consideration list and with adjustments makes it onto the ballot.

9. Gavvy Cravath – One of the enigmas in terms of career interpretation. His career in the majors combined with my interpretation of the other information places him here.

10. Vic Willis –Blame the cohort analysis for making me take another look at Vic. Helps fill the late 1890’s cohort on the pitching side.

11. Ben Taylor- It’s him, Chance and Helton battling for my top first basemen spot. Career value gets him ahead of the other two.

12. Jeff Kent –At the moment is my top ranked second basemen.

13 Don Newcombe – After going over and reworking the different types of credit I give to the players in my consideration set, Newcombe slots here.

14. Phil Rizzuto – Adjustments for war credit get him here.

15. Bob Johnson – PCL credit just gets him over the others in a tight clump for the last ballot spot.

Required comments:

Buddy Bell, Andruw Jones, Kenny Lofton – Bubbling under, not fully sold on the defensive valuation numbers. Applying just 1% regression to the fielding values dropped them from stand outs in the quick and dirty consideration set check I was doing to part of the viable candidate cluster. Need to get a more comfortable handle on this before committing to putting them on the ballot.

Bobby Bonds – Currently in my top 25.

Jorge Posada – In my top five catchers under consideration but currently have Munson and Schang ahead of him in the queue.
   50. JoeD has the Imperial March Stuck in His Head Posted: January 09, 2019 at 07:32 PM (#5803910)
My 2019 ballot is relatively early this year! 28 minutes early, despite running into the dreaded you are not logged in bug. Which cost me 4 minutes. Been working on it all day. I'm going to remove most of my old retread comments. I redid some things. It's a work in progress, next year's will be better. I took bWAR or a translation where it isn't available, including adding war credit, or discounting war seasons. I also adjusted WAR for everyone to 162 game seasons. And then I converted it all to Pennants Added (PA). That's the number you'll see here. I still take DanR's WAR into account, especially for SS/3B, but it's only available through 2005.

1. Dick Redding SP (--) - 1.46 PA. Thank you Doctor Chaleeko for the new MLEs. Even if I think they are optimistic, they put him so far ahead I am comfortable with him here now.

2. Roy Halladay SP (n/e) 1.06 PA. It's a great peak. It's shortish career, and he still had 8 all-star caliber seasons. That's something.

3. Mariano Rivera Closer (n/e) .81 PA. This is higher than the numbers suggest. I am bumping him because of his dominance compared with other relievers (throughout history, not just modern closers) as well as his amazing post-season record. His WPA+/WPA- record is better than Koufax - significantly. 185-129, 183-149. As is his WAR. A true superstar. Santana was 147-118 viewing it that way.

4. Ben Taylor 1B (13) 1.06 PA. Moving him up based on Dr. C's newish translations.

5. Phil Rizzuto SS (4) .98 PA. I think Rizzuto deserves more war credit than nearly anyone, short of the guys like Ted Williams and Joe DiMaggio. He lost his age 25-27 seasons and his age 28 was marred by his recovery from malaria. He was a 4.5, 5.7, 4.1 WAR player at ages 23-24, 29. He was a 6.7 WAR player at age 32 and a 5.3 WAR player at age 34. Fill in the blanks with 5.7, 6.0, 6.3 and 4.4 WAR seasons and he’s where he should be, IMO.

6. Kenny Lofton CF (--) 1.11 PA. I am reluctantly on board now. His offense is pretty much a dead ringer for Brett Butler. Their careers are great parallels in terms of the late start (both late bloomers, active from age 24-39). Lofton’s defense was a lot better, and I guess I’ve come around to trust the numbers. Butler has .79 PA with a very similar offensive career.

7. Thurman Munson C (--) .70 PA. Adjusts to 1.05 with the catcher bonus. bWAR likes him more than I realized. It really is a heckuva career. He was an outstanding player.

8. Wally Schang C .70 PA. 1.01 with the catcher bonus (he doesn’t get that for 1915-16. Easy to forget (or not know) that he played in 32 World Series games. He won World Series with 3 different teams over a 10-year period. He played very well too, hitting .287/.362/.404 in those games. He hit .357, .444 and .318 in the three wins.

9. Vic Willis SP (--) 1.12 PA. Another re-evaluation. bWAR loves him. Especially when you adjust for season length. He was an awful hitter. It cost him .08 PA. That’s the equivalent a 5.25 WAR season.

10. Jack Quinn SP (5) 1.07 PA. He adjusts really well. His missing 1916-18 seasons in the PCL boost him .19 PA (.88 is still very good). He also pitched 800 relief innings in his career with a leverage index of 1.26.

11. Jorge Posada C (6) .64 PA. Adjusts to .96 PA with my catcher career bonus. Comparing Posada with Bill Freehan, Posada played about half a season more, with a career 121 OPS+, including a .374 OBP. He is one of the greatest hitting catchers of all time. Freehan posted a 112 OPS+. Of course Freehan closes the gap with better defense. DanR’s WAR likes Posada a little better than Freehan, but they are very similar. I cannot see any way that one should be in while the other is out.

12. Luis Tiant (18) SP 1.03 PA. Moves up with my re-evaluation. bWAR likes him a lot.

13. Urban Shocker SP .99 PA. Vaulted in 1981, with 1918 war credit (he was having a great year), and an adjustment for the AL being much better than the NL during his time. He was a great pitcher, peak guys should really look closer at him. Gains 0.8 PA from his hitting (which is included above). That’s as much as Willis loses.

14. Tommy John (14) SP .98 PA. I’ve got a lot of pitchers right now. That’s just the way the cookie is crumbling, I would not read too much into it. John gets a little bump for the 1981 strike (he had a very good year). In competition this close, every little bit helps.

15. Sammy Sosa (9) RF 1.02 PA. Had him 9th the last two years. I have him at .96 PA - but then give him extra credit for the shortened seasons of 1994-95 and he bumps to 1.02. That’s enough to break his tie with Helton. That is one amazing peak. And 1998 isn’t even his best year. Check out that 2001.

Briefer comments for the rest.

Dropping off of my ballot:

7. Bert Campaneris - bWAR shows him with .81 PA. That’s good, but DanR had him with .93. Will need to reassess 1970s-80s SS/3B next year.

11. Brian Giles - bWAR gives him .80 PA, DanR .92 PA. splitting the difference drops him out. For now.

12. Gavy Cravath - bWAR with my non-MLB credit gives him .91 PA. He’s close but for now he’s out. DanR put him at .90 PA. This is more others moving up some than him moving down. But DanR has a higher replacement level too I think. His WAR is a little lower across the board.

15. Dave Concepcion. Wheras Campaneris goes from .93 to .81, Concepcion goes from .88 to .64. There is a much bigger drop off for Dave. Need to figure out where that is coming from, but either way he’s off for now.

Mandatories first:

Todd Helton 1B .96 PA. First look at him, and he holds up well. He’s basically dead even with Sosa before giving Sosa some work stoppage credit.

Andruw Jones CF .99 PA. bWAR likes his defense a lot more than DanR does. Ugh, not sure of what to do here. For now he’s off, as I’m splitting the difference.

Jeff Kent 2B .85 PA. Just not quite up to snuff with this competition. DanR’s WAR has him in a similar spot. It’s close but not quite.

Johan Santana SP .81 PA. It’s a Koufax like career. Pitching wise, Koufax wins .88 to .80. Which really tells me Koufax maybe should be missing the cut. But he’s Koufax and he’s kind of like Rivera and has the postseason with the sub 1 ERA and rings and things. His WPA+/- record is much better than Santana's too. So I get it. Santana is basically one season or two below Koufax. But then account for Koufax’s hitting. Which is horrific. It’s Vic Willis bad. And that drops Koufax all the way back to .80 PA based on bWAR. So Santana actually beats Koufax on pennants added. He also beats him on WAR if you ding Koufax for the -4.2 WAR he had as a hitter. Santana was actually an above average hitter for a pitcher of his era. He’s +0.6 WAR with the stick in far fewer opportunities. So if you are a Koufax lover, you should be a Santana lover. Although Koufax's WPA record is Santana with an extra 36-31 if you look at it that way. Santana ceded higher leverage situations to bullpens. Dizzy falls in here too. .77 PA. .73 as a pitcher and .04 as a hitter.

Buddy Bell 3B 1.08 PA. I really need to do some figuring between bWAR and DanR’s WAR for 1970s and 1980s 3B and SS. DanR only has him .85 PA, which is Tommy Leach/Robin Ventura territory. This will be a 2020 thing. For now I’m splitting the difference.

Bobby Bonds RF .89 PA. I see him as comparable to Joe Medwick or Kiki Cuyler, I’ve got Bonds with .82 PA. I wasn’t a big fan of Medwick’s selection. He’s just below my in out line, but it gets crowded just below. Which is why the line is a little above that crowd.

Other new guys:

Andy Pettitte came out *much* better than I thought he would. .90 PA is nothing to sneeze at.

Lance Berkman had a nice career. He pops in at .79 PA

Roy Oswalt, who intuitively I loved, shows up with .78 PA.

Miguel Tejada. Some big years, but .72 PA is not enough here. I feel like he’s the Vern Stephens or Jim Fregosi of his era. Which is an outstanding player. But not a HoMer.

Domo Arigato, Placido Polanco Himitsu wo Shiri tai (Secret, secret, I’ve got a secret) - he was a pretty good player. Don’t tell anyone. .63 PA. Two 6.1 WAR seasons too.

Octavio Dotel - I had him as a minor leaguer in a still running fantasy league. I am getting old. .23 PA, Wagner has .39, Hoffman .42, Rivera .81. Mostly using him to show how good those guys were as Dotel was a very good pitcher for a very long time.

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