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Hall of Merit
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Tuesday, January 23, 2018

2019 Hall of Merit Ballot Discussion

2019 - (December 2018) - elect 3

Top 10 Returning Players

Luis Tiant (240), Sammy Sosa (238), Kenny Lofton (236), Andruw Jones (220), Jeff Kent (207), Ben Taylor (197), Johan Santana (186), Buddy Bell (139), Bobby Bonds (124), Jorge Posada (105)

Newly eligible players

Player Name	bWAR WS	WAR7	JAWS	HOFm	HOFs
Roy Halladay	64.7	225.5	50.6	57.6	127	45
Todd Helton	61.2	316.5	46.4	53.8	175	59
Andy Pettitte	60.8	228.7	34.1	47.5	128	44
Mariano Rivera	57.1	272.5	28.9	43	214	30
Lance Berkman	51.7	310.7	38.9	45.3	98	44
Roy Oswalt	50.2	175.3	40.1	45.1	59	34
Miguel Tejada	46.9	278.6	36.5	41.7	149	44
Placido Polanco	41.3	215.4	32.2	36.8	42	26
Freddy Garcia	35.7	136.4	28.3	32	38	23
Derek Lowe	34.5	175.6	28.4	31.4	51	19
Kevin Youkilis	32.7	144.3	31.2	31.9	29	23
Vernon Wells	28.7	186.6	26.2	27.4	52	19
Ted Lilly	27	114.3	24.8	25.9	12	16
Travis Hafner	24.8	142.5	24.6	24.7	31	19
Jason Bay	24.3	162.5	24.5	24.4	47	21
Michael Young	24.2	231.2	21.1	22.7	112	36
Darren Oliver	22.6	119.3	17	19.8	20	9
Jon Garland	22.4	117.5	19.5	21	17	9
Ramon Hernandez	21.6	156.7	18.7	20.2	43	26
Ryan Dempster	19.3	133.7	23.8	21.5	26	12
Juan Pierre	16.9	178.2	16.4	16.7	63	23
Octavio Dotel	15.4	95.5	14	14.7	25	13
Jake Westbrook	13.3	78.4	14.6	13.9	14	3
Jose Contreras	13.2	67.8	13.3	13.3	17	7
DL from MN Posted: January 23, 2018 at 12:35 PM | 103 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Page 2 of 2 pages  < 1 2
   101. DL from MN Posted: February 06, 2018 at 12:43 PM (#5620351)
Is anyone else using a JAWS-like system? If so how do you rate Hilton Smith, Ben Taylor, Dick Redding? My guess is Ben Taylor would be around Eddie Murray or Helton.
   102. Michael J. Binkley's anxiety closet Posted: February 06, 2018 at 02:00 PM (#5620446)
I use a JAWS-like system as one of the inputs for my player calculations. The one difference is that unlike JAWS, I don't divide the value by 2. So in my system, using Dr.Chaleeko's MLE's, I have Taylor at a JAWS value of 114.12 (I do include a slight defensive regression to the mean for the NeL players). For comparison (and these are the value using my WAR calculations, not bWAR):

Palmeiro - 119.96
Murray - 119.86
Sisler - 113.79
Easter - 113.74
Hernandez - 113.46
McCovey - 111.81
McGwire - 111.52
Killebrew - 109.30
Terry - 101.92
Beckley - 101.36
Giambi - 100.75 (will make my PHoM soon after eligible)
Helton - 100.11

I have Hilton Smith at 113.82, just below Coveleski, Bunning, Drysdale and just above Haladay, Sutton, Shocker.

I have not run Redding yet because I'm waiting for Dr. Chaleeko to publish MLEs for him later this year.

And speaking of Dr. Chaleeko, I believe he votes now on a JAWS-like system based upon his own WAR calculation, but he indexes all of his numbers on a 100 scale, like Hall Rating at The Hall of Stats, which gives him a final CHEWS+ number.
   103. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: February 09, 2018 at 05:49 PM (#5622800)
@102
Yes, that's correct. JAWS-like, but also Hall-Rating-like with a dash of my special sauce. One of the big things I'm learning in doing this new round of MLEs is that the Dick Redding fans out there are onto something. Though not a guarantee, it is a strong likelihood that I'm going to include him on my ballot. He appears to me like a superior candidate than Hilton Smith.

One thing, though. Redding couldn't hit the floor if he fell out of bed. Doesn't end up mattering much, but, for a Negro Leagues pitcher, it's fairly unusual. I'll be setting his MLEs out for your review later in the year, probably late Spring/early summer.
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