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Tuesday, October 04, 2011

Most Meritorious Player: 1966 Discussion

1966 was the first season of major-league baseball in a Deep South city as the Braves moved from Milwaukeeto Atlanta.
  In the American League, once again the race ended rather early, with Baltimore taking the top spot in June. Although Detroit, the eventual third-place finisher, got as close as a game-and-a-half towards the end of June, the fell further and further behind as the season progressed. At the end they finished ten games out, and were passed on the day before the season ended by Minnesota. The Twins finished a game ahead of the Tigers and nine behind the Orioles.
  By contrast, the National League delivered yet another in a sequence of absorbing pennant races. On 31 August, Pittsburgh and San Francisco were tied for first. Los Angeles was three games back. Ten days later, a game-and-a-half separated the three teams as Los Angeles mounted a playoff run that carried them into first place on the next day, 11 September. At the end of the season, the Pirates were three games back, and the Giants had snuck into second place a game-and-a-half back.
  Baltimore trounced the Los Angeles Dodgers in four straight. The Dodgers only scored two runs for the whole series.

                Win
                Shares     WAR
Frank Robinson     40       8.3
Willie Mays       37       8.7
Sandy Koufax       36     9.9
Dick Allen         35     7.8
Willie McCovey     33     6.2
Harmon Killebrew   33     6.0
Juan Marichal     32     9.6
Al Kaline         30       5.8
Jim Bunning       30     8.6
Joe Torre         29     6.4
Roberto Clemente 29     7.3
Ron Santo         29     8.3
Tommie Agee     29     6.4
Felipe Alou       28     6.3
Tony Oliva       28     6.6
Jim Ray Hart     28     6.4
Norm Cash       27     3.7
Hank Aaron       27     7.1
Dick McAuliffe   27     6.0
Jim Fregosi     26     5.2
Pete Rose       26     4.0
Boog Powell     26     4.1
Bob Gibson     25     6.7
Jim Lefebvre     25     4.7
Earl Wilson     23     6.8
Tom Tresh       21     5.1
Rico Carty       21     4.7
Gaylord Perry   21     5.6
Jim Maloney     20     6.9
Mike Cuellar     20     6.0

fra paolo Posted: October 04, 2011 at 03:01 AM | 82 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. DL from MN Posted: October 04, 2011 at 02:32 PM (#3950561)
Hot topics
   2. Misirlou's been working for the drug squad Posted: October 04, 2011 at 02:39 PM (#3950565)
The Dodgers only scored two runs for the whole series.


Most people know this, but it bears repeating, they scored their last run of the series in the second inning of game 1.
   3. DL from MN Posted: October 04, 2011 at 02:55 PM (#3950580)
Looking over the numbers this is another year where Koufax and Marichal are just about even but Koufax gets all the accolades. Koufax does outpitch Marichal in 1966 but he gives back 1.5 wins with the bat compared to Marichal which is pretty much the entire advantage.
   4. DL from MN Posted: October 04, 2011 at 03:22 PM (#3950599)
Maybe someone can fill in some details for me

Why did Dick McAuliffe miss 40 games? Why was Earl Wilson traded? What was Torre like behind the plate at this point in his career?
   5. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 04, 2011 at 07:11 PM (#3950877)
Prelim (subject to change - no credit for postseason play and a 2% penalty for AL players for this season)

1) Frank Robinson
2) Sandy Koufax
3) Willie Mays
4) Dick Allen
5) Juan Marichal
6) Willie McCovey
7) Harmon Killebrew
8) Jim Bunning
9) Al Kaline
10) Joe Torre
   6. vortex of dissipation Posted: October 04, 2011 at 07:40 PM (#3950906)
Why did Dick McAuliffe miss 40 games?


Ray Oyler got hot at the start of the season, and was being platooned with McAuliffe for a while (no, really). After the All-Star Game, which McAuliffe started, he came down with an illness that weakened him severely, and he didn't play after the July 12 ASG until August 3.

McAuliffe enters hospital

EDIT: Another article from the time gives the illness as food poisoning, but three weeks seems a long time to miss because of food poisoning.

Food poisoning fells two Tigers
   7. DanG Posted: October 04, 2011 at 08:13 PM (#3950959)
View from the 'pen in '66

Rk           Player WAR ERA+    WPA  WHIP    IP  G GS Age  Tm Lg GF  W L SV  ERA  OPS
1        Phil Regan 4.1  203  3.247 0.934 116.2 65  0  29 LAD NL 48 14 1 21 1.62 .522
2      Billy McCool 3.7  159  2.825 1.111 105.1 57  0  21 CIN NL 45  8 8 18 2.48 .580
3         Jack Aker 3.5  171  2.935 0.965 113.0 66  0  25 KCA AL 57  8 4 32 1.99 .544
4    Fergie Jenkins 3.3  111 
-0.671 1.096 184.1 61 12  23 TOT NL 22  6 8  5 3.32 .664
5      Clay Carroll 3.2  156 
-0.189 1.081 144.1 73  3  25 ATL NL 28  8 7 11 2.37 .597
6       Joe Hoerner 2.7  236  1.171 1.026  76.0 57  0  29 STL NL 39  5 1 13 1.54 .583
7        Stu Miller 2.6  150  4.859 0.946  92.0 51  0  38 BAL AL 33  9 4 18 2.25 .530
8     Don Nottebart 2.2  128 
-0.691 1.257 111.1 59  1  30 CIN NL 28  5 4 11 3.07 .656
9       Billy ODell 1.9  138 
-1.169 1.411 112.2 61  2  33 TOT NL 26  5 5 10 2.64 .696
10   Al Worthington 1.6  147  0.381 1.018  91.1 65  0  37 MIN AL 46  6 3 16 2.46 .545
11   Pete Mikkelsen 1.6  117 
-0.044 1.246 126.0 71  0  26 PIT NL 33  9 8 14 3.07 .640
12   Hal Woodeshick 1.6  189  1.050 1.137  70.1 59  0  33 STL NL 23  2 1  4 1.92 .583
13     Hoyt Wilhelm 1.5  192  0.446 0.824  81.1 46  0  43 CHW AL 30  5 2  6 1.66 .489 
   8. DanG Posted: October 04, 2011 at 08:31 PM (#3950985)
What was Torre like behind the plate at this point in his career?
From what I'm seeing he was pretty decent. Coming off a gold glove year in 1965, he did a lot of catching in 1966, the 2nd busiest of his career. Played a lot of 1B (badly) to keep his bat in the lineup.

FWIW, BB-Ref dWAR has him as a below average fielding catcher at this point in his career.
   9. vortex of dissipation Posted: October 04, 2011 at 08:38 PM (#3950996)
Why was Earl Wilson traded?


http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/card-corner-1971-topps-earl-wilson/

Although he pitched consistently for Boston, the Red Sox traded him in the middle of the 1966 season. The trade came just a couple of months after an incident in which Wilson and two white pitchers, Dennis Bennett and Dave Morehead, walked into a bar in Winter Haven, Fla., during spring training. One of the bar’s employees told the Red Sox’ pitchers flatly, “We don’t serve niggers here.”

Wilson informed Red Sox management of the incident, but was told to forget about it not mention it to reporters. As a proud African American, Wilson could not comply with that request. He told a member of the Boston media what had happened. Shortly thereafter, in a move that many considered a retaliatory act, the Sox sent Wilson and little-used backup outfielder Joe Christopher to the Tigers for outfielder-first baseman Don Demeter and righthander Julio Navarro. Demeter would play decently for the Red Sox before retiring at the end of the 1967 season, but Wilson would thrive in Detroit, winning 13 of 19 decisions with a 2.59 ERA.
   10. DL from MN Posted: October 04, 2011 at 09:19 PM (#3951082)
Wow - you're right about McAuliffe. His manager decided to platoon his 800 OPS All-Star SS for parts of April and May. I can't really give him extra credit for the sickness but I can for managerial incompetence.

You also have to wonder how the hostile work environment affected Wilson's performance in Boston.

I ask about reputation for Torre because catcher defensive stats are notoriously poor.

Thanks, everyone
   11. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 04, 2011 at 11:05 PM (#3951224)
Updated prelim

1) Frank Robinson
2) Sandy Koufax
3) Willie Mays
4) Dick Allen
5) Juan Marichal
6) Willie McCovey
7) Jim Regan
8) Harmon Killebrew
9) Jim Bunning
10) Al Kaline

Thanks to Dan for the relief pitcher rundown!
   12. Mike Emeigh Posted: October 04, 2011 at 11:44 PM (#3951267)
McAuliffe always had a reputation as a good-hit, no-field shortstop - he would be moved to second in 1967 to make room for Oyler, which isn't the kind of move you'd be eager to make if McAuliffe were even passable with the glove. Oyler had hit 19 home runs at Syracuse in 1964 (yes, really) and there was some thought he'd maybe be a 10-15 HR guy in the majors (he hit 5 in 217 PA as a rookie).

SABR's bio of Oyler, written by Richard Newhouse, is excellent.

-- MWE
   13. vortex of dissipation Posted: October 05, 2011 at 01:13 AM (#3951490)
I was a Seattle Pilots fan - I remember the fan club well. It's just that it's impossible for me to give credence to any possible projection of him as a passable hitter. Ah, hindsight...
   14. DanG Posted: October 05, 2011 at 04:05 AM (#3952001)
The Sporting News all-star teams voted on after the season

-AL-
1b - Boog Powell
2b - Bobby Richardson
ss - Luis Aparicio
3b - Brooks Robinson
of - Frank Robinson
of - Al Kaline
of - Tony Oliva
c - Paul Casanova
p - Jim Kaat
p - Earl Wilson

-NL-
1b - Felipe Alou
2b - Pete Rose
ss - Gene Alley
3b - Ron Santo
of - Willie Stargell
of - Willie Mays
of - Roberto Clemente
c - Joe Torre
p - Sandy Koufax
p - Juan Marichal
   15. OCF Posted: October 05, 2011 at 04:05 AM (#3952002)
RA+ Pythpat for some pitchers:

AL:
Wilson: 17-12, great hitter. (I mean, he had a .500 Slg. Overall, maybe the best-hitting pitcher since Wes Ferrell.)
Peters: 15-8, very good hitter
Hargan: 14-8, fairly weak hitter
McDowell: 13-9
Siebert: 15-12, fairly weak hitter
Aker: 9-3. With inherited runner adjustment, 14-6.

NL:
Koufax: 26-10, terrible hitter
Marichal: 24-10, very good hitter
Bunning: 24-11, neutral hitter
Maloney: 17-8, good hitter
Gibson: 20-11, good hitter
Cuellar: 15-10, bad hitter
Perry: 17-11, fairly weak hitter
Veale: 18-12, bad hitter
Regan: 10-3. With inherited runner adjustment, 11-6
McCool: 8-3. With inherited runner adjustment, 11-5
Hoerner: 7-2. With inherited runner adjustment, 9-4.

I worked up Hoerner just because he was a Cardinal. He never did pitch as many innings as the bigger relief stars of the time.

The inherited runner adjustment does Regan no good - he wasn't all that good with inherited runners. Now one of us should probably check his game logs to see just how he got that official W-L record, and how many wins he, in fact, vultured.

Once again, the NL is the home of the super-workhorse pitcher, and we have a number of virtual 20-game winners, which is not easy. No one is even close to that in the AL, and I may even start to take Aker seriously as a candidate for best pitcher.

This is as central a year as there is to the legend of Sandy Koufax - and yet, with once we put the park adjustments in, he's not that that far ahead of Marichal. And the difference in hitting is so stark: Koufax -37 OPS+, -7 batting runs, Marichal 59 OPS+, +7 batting runs. I'm seeing a case here for putting Marichal ahead of Koufax.

Question for John:

7) Jim Regan

Who's that? The Dodger relief pitcher was Phil Regan - and I don't like him as a top 10 candidate.
   16. OCF Posted: October 05, 2011 at 04:18 AM (#3952011)
TSN all-stars, AL, 2B: Bobby Richardson

Our usual annual game of figuring out who was better at AL 2B. Richardson batted .251/.280/.330 for an OPS+ of 79. He's shown as still slightly above average defensively, but only slightly. His WAR is +0.5.

And then Richardson retired abruptly. He played full time in 1966 at the age of 30. (OK, it was "only" 149 games and he was used to more - but that's full-time.) But that's it - no 1967 in his record at all. And he wasn't pushed out by a hotshot rookie - in 1967, the Yankees shifted Horace Clarke from SS to 2B an installed a 31-year old journeyman named Ruben Amaro at SS. So why did Richardson leave?

Paul Casanova at C caused me to go look up Freehan, but it wasn't a particularly good year for Freehan.
   17. Howie Menckel Posted: October 05, 2011 at 04:39 AM (#3952024)
I believe Richardson went into the ministry in South Carolina.
   18. The District Attorney Posted: October 05, 2011 at 04:42 AM (#3952025)
Probably trying to pray away Repoz's curses upon him.
   19. OCF Posted: October 05, 2011 at 05:15 AM (#3952033)
I just checked Earl Wilson's career batting in the bb-ref neutralizer, in comparison to Wes Ferrell:

Wilson: 824 PA, .201/.271/.378, 36 HR
Ferrell: 1221 PA, .257/.325/.412, 36 HR

So, at least in comparison to Ferrell, Wilson had a much lower BA, and less overall value because of the BA. But his ISO and his HR rate were higher, at least in the neutralized version.

In 1966, Wilson was only used 4 times as a PH, all by Detroit. The Red Sox used him a few times as a PR, but not as a PH.

Detroit had many options as PH. As mentioned above, they had for potentially-regular OF all hitting well - Kaline, Northrup, Horton, and Stanley - and they also had Gates Brown on the bench as a classic LHB pinch-hit specialist. That leaves fewer occasions for the RHB all-or-nothing HR hitter that Wilson was, but they found a few spots anyway. That Boston used him a a PR but not as a PH seems like some unfortunate stereotyping, and Boston wasn't deep in bats on the bench. In 1965 in Boston, Wilson appeared 10 times as a PR and once as a PH. By the way, he's listed as something like 6-3, 215 - a big man.

----

By the way, when we get to 1967, I'm just going to have to weigh in quite a bit. My pitching workups are sure to include both Dick Hughes and Nelson Briles, who filled the hole left by Gibson's broken leg.
   20. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 05, 2011 at 12:50 PM (#3952102)
7) Jim Regan

Who's that? The Dodger relief pitcher was Phil Regan - and I don't like him as a top 10 candidate.


Heh. Obviously, I meant Phil (I have known about "The Vulture" for at least 30 years now, FWIW).
   21. Mike Emeigh Posted: October 05, 2011 at 04:34 PM (#3952345)
7) Jim Regan


Maybe this was a combination of Phil Regan and Jim Hegan :)

-- MWE
   22. Mike Emeigh Posted: October 05, 2011 at 04:40 PM (#3952351)
I believe Richardson went into the ministry in South Carolina.


Not exactly.

SABR bio of Bobby Richardson.

-- MWE
   23. Dag Nabbit is part of the zombie horde Posted: October 05, 2011 at 05:20 PM (#3952404)
Events of 1966: the early months (month and day listed before the event):

1 2 Greg Swindell born
1 5 James M. Johnston & James Lemon purchase remaining 40% fo WAS to get complete control
1 11 Wally Pipp dies
1 20 3-team trade: CWS get T.Agee & Tommy John, Cle gets Rocky Colavirto. KCA get Jim Landis & Fred Talbot
1 20 Nick Altrock dies
1 26 beginning of the demolition of Griffith Park
1 31 HOU signs amateur free agent Bob Watson
2 8 Ray Kremer, pitcher, dies
3 1 Del Webb sells his remaining 10% share in the NYY to CBS for $1.4 million. CBS now owns 90%. Dan Topping has the other 10%
3 1 STC signs Willie Montanez as amateur free agent
3 2 Ron Gant born
3 5 PepperMartin dies
3 6 Jimmy Austin dies
3 6 Wally Schang dies
3 9 Benito Santiago born
3 9 Brian Bosworth born
3 12 Steve Finley born
3 14 Kevin Brown born
3 19 John "Pop" Lloyd dies at age 79
3 28 MIL sells Frank Lary to NYM
3 28 NYM purchase Frank Lary from MIL
3 30 CLE purchases Stan Williams from NYY
   24. Dag Nabbit is part of the zombie horde Posted: October 05, 2011 at 05:21 PM (#3952407)
Events of 1966: April (month and day listed before the event):


4 4 BAL trades Mike McCormick to WAS
4 5 WAS acquires Roy Sievers as free agent
4 9 1st MLB game indoors - exhibition between Yanks & Astros - Mantle homers
4 12 1st game Red Schoendienst manages
4 12 1st regular season game in the Astrodome 1st regular season HR in Astrodome - Dick Allen
4 12 Astros retire Jim Umbricht's number
4 12 Herman Franks's first game as manager
4 12 MLB debut: Ron Swoboda
4 12 MLB debut: Steve Carlton. Issues walk in 11th inning of game ends as 10-10 tie STL vs CHC
4 12 MLB debut; Cesar Tovar
4 12 MLB debut; Glenn Beckert
4 13 MLB debut: Davey Johnson
4 17 MLB debut: Jim Palmer
4 18 100th game Walter Alston and Gene Mauch managed against each other
4 18 MLB debut; Darold Knowles
4 18 MLB debut; Ray Oyler
4 18 MLB debut; Tug McGraw
4 19 MLB debut: Nelson Briles
4 19 Original Astrodom ceiling painted. Causes grass to die
4 20 Warren Spahn's 2500th strikeout
4 23 MLB debut; Jim Lonborg
4 24 HOU trade Don Larsen to BAL
4 25 Willie Mays hits his 18th HR off Warren Spahn. His most off any pitcher
4 27 NYM complain about HOU's Astrodome A/C: allege it blwos cold air toward home when visitors up, and reverse for HOU
4 28 Met announcer Lindsey Nelson broadcasts game in gondola hung from apex of Astrodome. Or April 29. Probably 4/28
4 28 Walk-off balk: Ernie Broglio: CIN 3, CHC 2 (14)
   25. Dag Nabbit is part of the zombie horde Posted: October 05, 2011 at 05:22 PM (#3952410)
Events of 1966: May(month and day listed before the event):

5 1 Hi Myers, Brk CF, dies
5 1 Tommy Davis breaks his ankle sliding into 2B for LA.
5 3 CLE selects Joe Rudi off waviers from A's as first-year waiver pick
5 4 6th/final time Ken Boyer gets on base via catcher's interfreence. Six? That's a lot. Only Pete Rose has more that I've seen so far
5 5 Bunning-Spahn duel (PHI-NYM). Both go distance, allow 4 hits & 1 BB each. But Bunning HRs off Spahn. PHI 1, NYM 0
5 5 last reported pickoff of Jim Bunning's career
5 6 Willie Stargell hits 2 HR in game for 2nd time in span of 3 games
5 8 after tehn-record 438 chances w/out error, Jerry Adair, BAL 2B, makes error
5 8 Elmira Pioneers 2, Springfield Giants 1 (27). A new record in organized baseball. Attendance: 386. Scorelss for 25, both 1 in 26
5 9 CLE-BOX tie for 9 double plays in one game; 2nd game of doubleheader
5 9 last game: Roy Sievers (same DH as Yogi Berra)
5 9 last game: Yogi Berra (same DH as Roy Sievers)
5 10 1st of Yaz' 25 multi-HR games
5 11 WAS returns Dallas Green t PHI following preiouv purhase
5 12 HOU signs free agent Nellie Fox
5 12 Phillies lose to Reds: Mauch locks out reporters, breaks window, jams his fit into dressing rooom locker
5 13 100 wins: Milt Pappas: 100-65
5 13 25-year-old Dick Wantz, CAL reliever, dies following surgery for brain cancer. Only 1 MLB appearance
5 13 Jose Rijo born
5 13 MLB debut: Catfish Hunter
5 13 MLB debut: Horace Clarke
5 14 Yaz goes 5-for-5 (one of only 2 times he does that): hits cycle w/ 2 HR. 2 R, 5 RBI, 1 BB. Det 12, BOX 8. Hi for TB & XBH
5 15 Dick Ellsworth 1-hitter could've gone better: 8-th inning pinch hit HR gives opposiing LA a 3-1 win over the Cubs
5 15 WAS release Roy Sievers
5 16 Jim Palmer's first win. Still a teen. Also gets his 1st HR: off Jim Bouton
5 16 Joe Morgan hits the first of 13 leadoff HRs (off Juan Marichal)
5 17 1,000 wins as manager: Walter Alston: 1,000-754
5 17 NYM release Yogi Berra
5 18 Robin Roberts's 300th career CG
5 20 Todd Stottlemyre born
5 22 Nellie Fox fields a position other than 2B for the first time: comes in 7th inning to play 3rd for Houston & stays there until end of game
5 23 CHC 3, LAD 2 (16). LA scored 2 in the 1st, that's it. Winning run on bases-loaded walk to George Altman
5 23 Earl Webb, 67 2B in a year, dies
5 23 Ron Swoboda, NYM, puts his foot through batting helmet and cant' dislodged it
5 25 Don Drysdale's only CG 1-hitter (never a no-H). Curt Flood w/ leadoff 1B in 1st. Aside from that & E6, perfect. 0 BB, 6 K
5 25 Nat'l Brewery Co buys 64,000 shares of stock in BLAL for Joe Ighlehart
5 26 Juan Marichal's worst start: 3.2 IP, 11 H, 9 R/ER, 0 BB, 5 K. Game Score 8
5 28 A's sign Don Mossi as free agent
5 28 LAD sign free agent Jim Gilliam
5 29 Dick Allen this 529-foot HR over the left CF roof at Connie Mack Stadium in 1st inning vs. Larry Jackson (CHC)
5 30 Cubs sell Lew Burdette to Phillies
5 30 PHI purchase Lew Burdette from the Cubs
5 31 Walk-off SH: Joe Azcue: CLE 4, CWS 3
5 31 Win puts Reds franchise record at .500, been over it ever since: 6,129-6,129
   26. Dag Nabbit is part of the zombie horde Posted: October 05, 2011 at 05:25 PM (#3952415)
This is taking up a lot of space, so I'll only do the rest of the year if there's a popular request for it. Don't want to gum up everyone's thread just on my own whim.
   27. DL from MN Posted: October 05, 2011 at 05:30 PM (#3952425)
If you could boil it down to 10% (include actual events, not statistical anomalies and no birth/deaths/transactions) I'd be fine with it.
   28. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 05, 2011 at 05:49 PM (#3952451)
Maybe this was a combination of Phil Regan and Jim Hegan :)

-- MWE


That's exactly what happened, Mike.

I had been checking out his stats in my Diamond Mind league earlier in the day, thus creating the composite Jim Regan. :-D
   29. Dag Nabbit is part of the zombie horde Posted: October 05, 2011 at 06:08 PM (#3952469)
If you could boil it down to 10% (include actual events, not statistical anomalies and no birth/deaths/transactions) I'd be fine with it.

How's this:

Events of 1966: June:

6 1 Bob Veale, PIT, sets franchise record w/ 16 Ks in a game. Ties his own record, set 9/30/64. Still is PIT record, as of 6/1/11
6 6 for 3rd time in his career, Don Drysdale throws CG SHO & hits a HR in the same game
6 8 First amateur draft.
6 8 Walk-off balk: Hal Woodeshick: PIT 7, HOU 6 (11)
6 11 Pitchers duel: Spahn-Drysdale. LA 2, NYM 1: the difference is Drysdale's 8th inning solo shot off Spahn
6 11 Walkoff inside the park HR by Johnny Callison off Jm Owens
6 12 last game: Dick Donovan
6 14 Bill Mazeroski HBP for the 1st time since September 1962. Steve Carlton the pitcher. 1,362 PA w/out a HBP
6 14 Jim Maloney's no-hitter broken up in the 11th. Mets win 1-0 over Reds. 18 K, 1 BB
6 15 Denny McLain fans 14 in relief, the record until Randy Johnson in 2001. Ks 1st 7 .6.2 IP, 6 H, 2 R/ER, 2 BB, 15 K. Det 6, Box 5
6 16 Woodie Held 7th inning 1B ruins would-be Luis Tiant no-hitter.
6 20 DET rally from 8-run deficit to 12-8 win over KCA
6 22 Ray Barker's major league record-tying 2nd consecutive pinch-hit HR
6 24 Last time Juan Marichal ever walks the 1st batter of a game He'll start 294 more games, but never do it again
6 24 Willie Stargell hits 3 HR in one game for PIT. Hit two homers on 6/22, too.
6 27 CGH SHO by Bob Gibson and hits HR. STL 8, CHC 0.
   30. DL from MN Posted: October 05, 2011 at 06:39 PM (#3952511)
I would have snipped these out too

6 8 Walk-off balk: Hal Woodeshick: PIT 7, HOU 6 (11)
6 12 last game: Dick Donovan
6 14 Bill Mazeroski HBP for the 1st time since September 1962. Steve Carlton the pitcher. 1,362 PA w/out a HBP
6 20 DET rally from 8-run deficit to 12-8 win over KCA
6 22 Ray Barker's major league record-tying 2nd consecutive pinch-hit HR

Cut anything that seems irrelevant to the 1966 MMP discussion. Those other items have some relevance and can inform the discussion.
   31. DL from MN Posted: October 05, 2011 at 08:13 PM (#3952615)
1966 prelim

1) Frank Robinson
2) Sandy Koufax
3) Juan Marichal - the top 3 are very close. Marichal ranks higher than either before I add in postseason numbers
4) Ron Santo
5) Joe Torre - gets a catcher bonus
6) Jim Bunning
7) Dick Allen
8) Dick McAuliffe - gets the tiebreaker due to unfortunate platooning. This year's random SS in the top 10 in the tradition of Zoilo Versalles, Denis Menke, Dick Groat and Maury Wills.
9) Willie Mays - shocking!
10) Roberto Clemente

11-15) Harmon Killebrew, Jim Fregosi, Earl Wilson, Jim Maloney, Bob Gibson
16-20) Al Kaline, Jim Lefebvre, Gary Peters, Gene Alley, Henry Aaron
   32. DL from MN Posted: October 06, 2011 at 03:13 PM (#3953394)
The election should run 10/26-11/2 except I'm in California for a wedding on 11/2. We can end 11/1 or bump it to the following week.
   33. OCF Posted: October 06, 2011 at 04:10 PM (#3953454)
Earlier rather than later. People will adjust to the deadline, and we want to clear the decks for the regular Hall of Merit election (last backlog election for many years to come).
   34. lieiam Posted: October 07, 2011 at 04:44 AM (#3954816)
This looks like a fun one... largely because I'm not sure what my system will say.
I've started my spreadsheet and have looked at more than I've entered.
It very well may come down to any league adjustment I make (as Frank Robinson looks impressive from the weaker league).
   35. Chris Fluit Posted: October 07, 2011 at 12:41 PM (#3954918)
6 15 Denny McLain fans 14 in relief, the record until Randy Johnson in 2001. Ks 1st 7 .6.2 IP, 6 H, 2 R/ER, 2 BB, 15 K. Det 6, Box 5


I attended that Randy Johnson game.
   36. DL from MN Posted: October 07, 2011 at 01:54 PM (#3954950)
Dag Nabbit - Sorry if I was being short. I like the concept, just want to make sure it isn't something people gloss over because it's too big.
   37. lieiam Posted: October 08, 2011 at 03:41 PM (#3956924)
I'm seriously getting my spreadsheet together (this morning) and have noticed that I am unable to follow the link to Dan R's WARP stuff. Is anyone else able to get there? If anyone CAN get there please let me know and I will try again. If not... can someone fix this?

Also, Dan G: Any chance you could post the Baseball Prospectus WARP 1 leaders (like you have been)?

For now I'll go ahead and list my prelim ballot with the 5 systems I've got numbers for... in a little while.
   38. lieiam Posted: October 08, 2011 at 03:55 PM (#3956936)
And here is my prelim ballot. This is (again) only 5 of the 7 systems (so far) and I have not made any league strength adjustment nor have I given my usual 10% catcher bonus (yet). [Oh, the numbers listed have been set to the same scale as if I had all 7 systems factored in].

9545 frank robinson
9417 sandy koufax
8975 willie mays
8844 juan marichal
8350 dick allen
7827 ron santo
7810 jim bunning
7340 willie mccovey
7220 roberto clemente
7103 joe torre
7022 harmon killebrew
6717 hank aaron
6698 al kaline
6637 tommie agee
6631 bob gibson
6483 felipe alou
6248 tony oliva
6193 dick mcauliffe
6180 jim ray hart
6169 earl wilson
   39. DanG Posted: October 08, 2011 at 04:53 PM (#3956959)
Dan G: Any chance you could post the Baseball Prospectus WARP 1 leaders (like you have been)?
I actually started getting that together last night. Probably post something in the next day or two.
   40. DanG Posted: October 09, 2011 at 03:56 AM (#3957329)
Leaders in WARP from BPro

1966           WARP1  WARP3
Sandy Koufax    11.4   10.8
Juan Marichal   10.3    9.7
Ron Santo        9.9   10.0
Jim Bunning      9.9    9.4
Frank Robinson   9.6    8.3
Willie Mays      8.7    8.9
Joe Torre        8.0    8.2
Earl Wilson      8.4    6.9
Bob Gibson       7.8    7.4
Dick Allen       7.4    7.3
Felipe Alou      7.1    7.1
Roberto Clemente 7.1    7.0
Jim Maloney      7.1    6.7
Phil Regan       6.7    6.4
Willie McCovey   6.4    6.4
Hank Aaron       6.4    6.4
Dick McAuliffe   6.7    5.8
Gary Peters      6.8    5.6
Jim Kaat         7.1    5.2
Jim Lefebvre     6.1    6.2
Tom Tresh        6.4    5.3
Mike Cuellar     6.0    5.6
Al Jackson       5.9    5.6
Bill Mazeroski   5.6    5.9
Gaylord Perry    5.9    5.5
Rico Carty       5.7    5.7
Harmon Killebrew 6.0    4.7
Jim Fregosi      5.9    4.8
Jack Aker        5.7    5.0 
   41. bjhanke Posted: October 09, 2011 at 03:54 PM (#3957560)
It arrears this year that the WAR systems are overrating pitchers, or that Win Shares is underestimating them. Right now, I trust Win Shares more on this subject. If anyone knows what argument worked on the the WAR systems, I would be really, really happy to know, so that I can balance my systems more correctly. - Brock Hanke
   42. lieiam Posted: October 09, 2011 at 05:14 PM (#3957606)
@DanG:
Thanks a lot for getting the leaders posted in BPro WARP 1&3!
Now I can add a system to my spreadsheet... And I guess I'll try following the link to Dan R's stuff again.
If I DO get to it I will post an updated that it is now accessible.

@bjhanke:
I don't think the different values generated for pitchers relative to (other) position players is specific to 1966. I think (for whatever reason(s)) the various WAR and WARP systems rate pitchers (or at least top flight pitchers) higher than Win Shares (& WSAB). Not that this comment helps you as to the WHY... I just wanted to make it clear that (I believe) it is not specific to "this year".
   43. lieiam Posted: October 09, 2011 at 05:40 PM (#3957616)
And now (incorporating bp WARP 1 into my system for 1966) I have a new leader.... as Sandy Koufax passes Frank Robinson (at least for the moment).

Oh, and I was intrigued/amused to see compare 1965 and 1966 in baseballgaugeWAR and baseballprospectusWARP1. In 1965 bgWAR had Koufax with the highest number while bpWARP1 had Marichal with the highes number. In 1966 they've flipped.
   44. DL from MN Posted: October 10, 2011 at 03:37 PM (#3958260)
We'll run the election 10/25-11/1 (Tues-Tues) this time.
   45. DL from MN Posted: October 11, 2011 at 02:18 PM (#3959294)
The big question this year seems to be league strength. Both leagues should be far enough removed from expansion that it isn't a factor any longer. Does anyone care to share their league strength estimates?
   46. lieiam Posted: October 12, 2011 at 01:53 PM (#3960251)
I don't have a league strength estimate but am curious to see what other people are doing about it.
But what I'm posting about now is my continuing inability to access Dan R's WARP spreadsheet. Again, can someone else please try to access it and let me know if it's just some problem I'm having or if the link is not working.
[How I get there: go to hall of merit; go to the important threads; to to read more; scroll down (it's about the 5th one down once they're single spaced) and click on Dan Rosencheck's WARP data (or whatever it's called) and try and follow the link to get to the spreadsheet. I keep getting a message that the page can not be displayed].
Thanks to anyone who tries!
   47. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 12, 2011 at 02:11 PM (#3960271)
The big question this year seems to be league strength. Both leagues should be far enough removed from expansion that it isn't a factor any longer. Does anyone care to share their league strength estimates?


I still have the NL roughly 2% stronger than the AL, FWIW.
   48. Mefisto Posted: October 12, 2011 at 02:19 PM (#3960283)
I've never made any formal estimate of relative league strength, but I have looked at the pattern and progress of integration. By that assessment, I'd say the AL didn't catch up until 1973 or so.
   49. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 12, 2011 at 04:54 PM (#3960476)
I've never made any formal estimate of relative league strength, but I have looked at the pattern and progress of integration. By that assessment, I'd say the AL didn't catch up until 1973 or so.


That sounds about right, Mefisto.
   50. sunnyday2 Posted: October 12, 2011 at 05:49 PM (#3960547)
Prelim

Prelim is based entirely on a numerical system. I will make "value" judgments, if you'll pardon the expression, in translating this into a final ballot. That's not to say it will change. This seems more intuitively correct that some of my previous prelims with this system. But we'll see.

1. F. Robby--league strength aside, an easy choice. 41 WS, 8.3 WARP, 244 R + RBI.

2. Mays--still going strong though only #3 in NL MVP. 37 WS, 8.7 WARP.

3. Koufax--still going strong, who knew this would be the end? 35 WS, 9.9 WARP.

4. Clemente--NL MVP but only 29 WS and 7.3 WARP. One of the early missteps of the BBWAA ("early" in my consciousness that the BBWAA might be a bunch of buffoons). Still, out of your top 10 is too low.

5. Allen--35 WS, 7.8 WARP.

6. B. Robby--still going strong? DO your metric. 8.3 WARP, only 24 WS.

7. Marichal--33 WS, 9.6 WARP.

8. Killebrew--33 WS, only 6.0 WARP.

9. Aaron--still going strong? DO your metric. 7.1 WARP, only 27 WS.

10. Powell--8.3 WARP, only 26 WS. F. Robby, B. Robby and Powell #1, #2 and #3 in AL MVP voting.

11. Oliva--28 WS, 6.6 WARP in 3rd year.

12. Bunning--30 WS, 8.6 WARP, the 2 big metrics seem to agree for once, but Bunning was nowhere in MVP race.

13. McCovey--34 WS, 6.9 WARP, nowhere in MVP voting.

14. Agee--28 WS, 6.4 WARP, only #8 in MVP voting.

15. F. Alou--28 WS, 6.3 WARP, #6 in MVP voting.

16. Kaline, 17. Santo, 18. Regan, 19. Cuellar, 20. Kaat
21. Cash, 22. Torre, 23. Stargell, 24. Wilson, 25. Hart

WWS likes Santo and Torre, WARP likes Santo, both were MIA in MVP voting. Cubbies' team performance let Santo down, Imean, how valuable can you be? Earl Wilson was a diamond in the rough. Gibson, Bill White, Billy Williams close but no cigar.
   51. OCF Posted: October 13, 2011 at 02:03 AM (#3961484)
Koufax--still going strong, who knew this would be the end?

Koufax knew.
   52. Rob_Wood Posted: October 13, 2011 at 09:52 PM (#3962506)
My prelim 1966 MMP ballot (my league adjustment is larger than most voters):

1. Frank Robinson - dominated his new league, led Orioles to World Series and starred in WS sweep
2. Sandy Koufax - led NL with 323 IP, 1.73 ERA (190 ERA+), 27 wins, 41 starts, 27 CG, 5 shutouts, and 317 SO
3. Willie Mays - another great season, led NL with 7.1 WPA (situational hitting)
4. Dick Allen - great hitter, missed 20 games/poor defense or he would have been higher
5. Ron Santo - led NL with 412 OBA, good home and road stats
6. Juan Marichal - just a notch below Koufax in virtually everything (Marichal was a better hitter)
7. Roberto Clemente - won his only MVP as he hit 29 HR and 119 RBI (did some voters leave off Koufax??)
8. Hank Aaron - led NL with 44 HR and 127 RBI as Braves move to Atlanta
9. Harmon Killebrew - led AL with 6.6 WPA which gives him the nod over Oliva
10. Tony Oliva - very good defensive stats

11. Willie McCovey
12. Felipe Alou
13. Joe Torre
14. Al Kaline
15. Tommie Agee
16. Jim Ray Hart
17. Jim Bunning
18. Jim Fregosi
19. Dick McAuliffe
20. Jim Lefebvre

21. Willie Stargell
22. Boog Powell
23. Carl Yastrzemski
24. Rico Carty
25. Norm Cash
26. Brooks Robinson
27. Pete Rose
28. Bob Gibson
29. Tom Tresh
30. Earl Wilson
   53. lieiam Posted: October 17, 2011 at 10:59 PM (#3966679)
Due to the lack of overwhelming response to my question in post 46 (read: no response at all) asking others if they can access Dan R's WARP data I thought I'd try again.... but this time with an ACCURATE description of how I've accessed them in the past.

So (anyone) please let me know if you can get access to the spreadsheets or not. I'd like to (as I have for 1961-1965) incorporate Dan's WARP1 into my rating system for 1966 (and onwards).

Here is the path I take:
1- click on "hall of merit"
2- click on "read more" to the "Welcome to the Baseball Hall Of Merit" posting.
3- click on "important links"
4- click on "read more"
5- click on "Dan Rosencheck's WARP data" [it's the 5th one down once they go to single spacing after the dozen or so double spaced).
6- click on "WARP methodology and results"
7- at this point I used to get some options. Now I get "the webpage cannot be found".

So... that's my story.
   54. Bleed the Freak Posted: October 18, 2011 at 02:42 AM (#3966858)
Lieiam 53 / Sign up for the Hall of Merit Yahoo group page - Dan's Hitter WARP by season can be accessed.
   55. Bleed the Freak Posted: October 18, 2011 at 12:07 PM (#3967014)
Rosenheck unadjusted Top 40 hitters from 1966 - someone with intuitive knowledge of formatting may be able to help with this data.


YEAR Team Lg Player Age Pos SFrac BWAA1 BRWAA1 FWAA1 Rep1 WARP1 WARP1/Yr LgAdj BWAA2 BRWAA2 FWAA2 Rep2 WARP2 WARP2/Yr PennAdd Salary

1966 BAL-A AL robinfr02 30 79 1.03 8.8 0 -0.2 -0.8 9.4 9.2 0.999 8.8 0 -0.2 -0.8 9.4 9.2 0.143 $22,216,498
1966 CHI-N NL santoro01 26 5 1 6.1 -0.1 1.5 -1.4 9 9 0.95 5.8 -0.1 1.4 -1.4 8.5 8.6 0.127 $18,959,553
1966 DET-A AL mcauldi01 26 6 0.76 3.9 -0.1 0.5 -2.6 6.8 9 0.999 3.9 -0.1 0.5 -2.6 6.8 9 0.097 $15,853,435
1966 PHI-N NL allendi01 24 5 0.89 6.9 0.1 -0.5 -1.3 7.7 8.6 0.95 6.5 0.1 -0.5 -1.2 7.3 8.2 0.105 $15,730,226
1966 SF_-N NL mayswi01 35 8 0.93 4.6 0.2 1.5 -1.1 7.5 8 0.95 4.4 0.2 1.4 -1.1 7.1 7.6 0.101 $14,288,264
1966 PIT-N NL clemero01 31 79 1.02 4.9 0.1 1.5 -0.8 7.3 7.1 0.95 4.6 0.1 1.4 -0.8 6.9 6.8 0.098 $12,755,208
1966 DET-A AL kalinal01 31 8 0.86 5.5 0 -0.3 -1 6.1 7.1 0.999 5.5 0 -0.3 -1 6.1 7.1 0.085 $11,763,997
1966 ATL-N NL torrejo01 25 2 0.91 4.9 -0.2 0 -1.9 6.5 7.2 0.95 4.7 -0.2 0 -1.8 6.2 6.8 0.086 $11,504,780
1966 CAL-A AL fregoji01 24 6 1.03 1.7 0.2 1 -3.6 6.5 6.2 0.999 1.7 0.2 1 -3.6 6.4 6.2 0.09 $11,150,779
1966 MIN-A AL killeha01 30 5 1.02 5.7 -0.2 -0.6 -1.4 6.3 6.1 0.999 5.7 -0.2 -0.6 -1.4 6.3 6.1 0.087 $10,660,917
1966 PIT-N NL stargwi01 26 79 0.81 5.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.6 5.7 7 0.95 5 -0.1 -0.1 -0.6 5.4 6.7 0.073 $9,827,364
1966 LA_-N NL lefebji01 24 4 0.89 3 0 0.5 -2.3 5.9 6.6 0.95 2.9 0 0.5 -2.1 5.6 6.2 0.076 $9,607,835
1966 PIT-N NL alleyge01 25 6 0.91 1.4 0 1.1 -3.3 5.8 6.4 0.95 1.3 0 1.1 -3.2 5.5 6.1 0.076 $9,394,789
1966 NY_-A AL treshto01 28 79 0.96 3 0 1.8 -0.7 5.5 5.7 0.999 3 0 1.8 -0.7 5.5 5.7 0.075 $8,918,660
1966 ATL-N NL aaronha01 32 79 1.02 4.5 0.4 0.2 -0.8 5.9 5.8 0.95 4.3 0.4 0.2 -0.7 5.6 5.5 0.077 $8,884,838
1966 BAL-A AL aparilu01 32 6 1.05 0.2 0.3 1.4 -3.6 5.4 5.2 0.999 0.2 0.3 1.4 -3.6 5.4 5.2 0.074 $8,138,845
1966 CHI-A AL ageeto01 23 8 1.03 2.7 0.3 1.1 -1.2 5.4 5.2 0.999 2.7 0.3 1.1 -1.2 5.4 5.2 0.072 $8,063,699
1966 SF_-N NL mccovwi01 28 3 0.87 5.5 0 -0.5 -0.2 5.2 6 0.95 5.2 0 -0.4 -0.2 4.9 5.7 0.066 $7,939,380
1966 MIN-A AL olivato01 25 79 1.02 3.5 0.1 0.9 -0.7 5.3 5.2 0.999 3.5 0.1 0.9 -0.7 5.3 5.2 0.071 $7,886,335
1966 BAL-A AL powelbo01 24 3 0.85 5.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 4.7 5.5 0.999 5.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 4.7 5.5 0.062 $7,416,529
1966 NY_-A AL mantlmi01 34 8 0.59 4.1 0 -0.7 -0.7 4 6.8 0.999 4.1 0 -0.7 -0.7 4 6.8 0.052 $7,370,243
1966 ATL-N NL aloufe01 31 3 1.05 4.6 -0.1 0.6 -0.3 5.4 5.1 0.95 4.4 -0.1 0.6 -0.2 5.1 4.9 0.068 $7,295,412
1966 PIT-N NL mazerbi01 29 4 0.98 -0.1 0.1 2.7 -2.5 5.1 5.3 0.95 -0.1 0.1 2.6 -2.3 4.9 5 0.065 $7,161,578
1966 HOU-N NL jacksso01 21 6 0.96 1.2 0.6 -0.3 -3.5 5.1 5.3 0.95 1.1 0.6 -0.3 -3.3 4.8 5 0.064 $7,090,114
1966 BAL-A AL robinbr01 29 5 1.03 2.5 -0.1 1 -1.4 4.8 4.7 0.999 2.5 -0.1 1 -1.4 4.8 4.7 0.064 $6,738,648
1966 CIN-N NL rosepe01 25 4 1.03 2.2 -0.2 0.3 -2.6 4.9 4.8 0.95 2.1 -0.2 0.3 -2.5 4.7 4.5 0.062 $6,343,011
1966 HOU-N NL morgajo02 22 4 0.77 3.8 0 -1.4 -1.9 4.3 5.6 0.95 3.6 0 -1.3 -1.8 4.1 5.3 0.053 $6,239,030
1966 DET-A AL cashno01 31 3 1.02 4.1 0 0.3 -0.2 4.6 4.5 0.999 4.1 0 0.3 -0.2 4.6 4.5 0.06 $6,178,917
1966 WAS-A AL valenfr01 31 79 0.86 3 0.1 0.4 -0.6 4.2 4.8 0.999 3 0.1 0.4 -0.6 4.2 4.8 0.054 $5,947,240
1966 CIN-N NL cardele01 27 6 0.92 -0.5 0.1 1.4 -3.4 4.4 4.8 0.95 -0.5 0.1 1.3 -3.2 4.2 4.6 0.055 $5,766,457
1966 BOS-A AL foyjo01 23 5 0.98 2.1 -0.2 1 -1.3 4.3 4.4 0.999 2.1 -0.2 1 -1.3 4.3 4.3 0.056 $5,681,398
1966 ATL-N NL cartyri01 26 79 0.87 3.8 -0.2 0 -0.7 4.3 4.9 0.95 3.6 -0.1 0 -0.6 4.1 4.7 0.053 $5,667,818
1966 BAL-A AL blefacu01 22 79 0.76 3.6 -0.2 -0.2 -0.6 3.7 5 0.999 3.6 -0.2 -0.2 -0.6 3.7 5 0.048 $5,441,866
1966 PHI-N NL whitebi03 32 3 0.97 3 0.1 0.8 -0.2 4.3 4.4 0.95 2.9 0.1 0.8 -0.2 4 4.2 0.052 $5,195,108
1966 KC_-A AL campabe01 24 6 0.91 0.2 0.9 -0.6 -3.2 3.7 4.1 0.999 0.2 0.9 -0.6 -3.2 3.7 4.1 0.047 $4,675,388
1966 STL-N NL shannmi01 26 79 0.74 1.5 0.1 1.3 -0.6 3.5 4.8 0.95 1.5 0.1 1.3 -0.5 3.3 4.5 0.042 $4,560,277
1966 LA_-N NL rosebjo01 33 2 0.74 1.5 -0.1 0.6 -1.5 3.5 4.8 0.95 1.4 0 0.6 -1.4 3.3 4.5 0.042 $4,539,787
1966 SF_-N NL hartji01 24 5 0.94 2.5 -0.1 0.2 -1.3 3.9 4.1 0.95 2.3 -0.1 0.2 -1.3 3.7 3.9 0.047 $4,538,931
1966 CHI-N NL willibi01 28 79 1.08 3.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.8 4.1 3.8 0.95 3 0.1 -0.1 -0.8 3.9 3.6 0.05 $4,475,761
1966 BOS-A AL yastrca01 26 79 1.03 2.2 -0.2 1 -0.8 3.8 3.7 0.999 2.2 -0.2 1 -0.8 3.8 3.7 0.048 $4,456,059

$22,216,498 robinfr02
$18,959,553 santoro01
$15,853,435 mcauldi01
$15,730,226 allendi01
$14,288,264 mayswi01
$12,755,208 clemero01
$11,763,997 kalinal01
$11,504,780 torrejo01
$11,150,779 fregoji01
$10,660,917 killeha01
$9,827,364 stargwi01
$9,607,835 lefebji01
$9,394,789 alleyge01
$8,918,660 treshto01
$8,884,838 aaronha01
$8,138,845 aparilu01
$8,063,699 ageeto01
$7,939,380 mccovwi01
$7,886,335 olivato01
$7,416,529 powelbo01
$7,370,243 mantlmi01
$7,295,412 aloufe01
$7,161,578 mazerbi01
$7,090,114 jacksso01
$6,738,648 robinbr01
$6,343,011 rosepe01
$6,239,030 morgajo02
$6,178,917 cashno01
$5,947,240 valenfr01
$5,766,457 cardele01
$5,681,398 foyjo01
$5,667,818 cartyri01
$5,441,866 blefacu01
$5,195,108 whitebi03
$4,675,388 campabe01
$4,560,277 shannmi01
$4,539,787 rosebjo01
$4,538,931 hartji01
$4,475,761 willibi01
$4,456,059 yastrca01
   56. DL from MN Posted: October 18, 2011 at 02:08 PM (#3967096)
I'll concur with the Yahoo HoM page as the best method.

Here's pitchers (Dan R has said this data is obsolete but I still like it better than any other method)

playerid YEAR TEAM Lg IP/162 DERA PWAA1 BWAA1 StdevAdj IPAdj TransIP PWAA2 BWAA2 Rep WARP2 Salary

koufasa01 1966 LA_-N NL 323.7 2.74 7.8 -2.4 1.18 0.862 279.1 7.9 -2 -4.2 10.1 $39,125,033
maricju01 1966 SF_-N NL 308 2.93 6.5 -0.6 1.18 0.862 265.6 6.6 -0.5 -4 10.1 $38,788,670
bunniji01 1966 PHI-N NL 314.7 3.16 5.5 -1.2 1.18 0.862 271.4 5.6 -1 -4 8.5 $30,318,600
wilsoea01 1966 DET-A AL 265.7 3.61 2.9 0.5 1.123 0.862 229.1 2.8 0.4 -3.6 6.8 $21,684,575
gibsobo01 1966 STL-N NL 280.9 3.45 3.6 -0.9 1.18 0.862 242.2 3.7 -0.7 -3.6 6.6 $20,617,227
malonji01 1966 CIN-N NL 225.2 3.15 4 -0.6 1.18 0.862 194.2 4 -0.5 -2.9 6.5 $20,108,084
peterga01 1966 CHI-A AL 206 3.24 3.4 -0.3 1.123 0.862 177.6 3.3 -0.3 -2.8 5.8 $16,994,752
kaatji01 1966 MIN-A AL 306.6 3.89 2.1 -0.9 1.123 0.862 264.4 2 -0.8 -4.1 5.4 $15,304,484
perryga01 1966 SF_-N NL 256.3 3.57 2.9 -1.1 1.18 0.862 221 2.9 -0.9 -3.2 5.3 $14,861,659
cuellmi01 1966 HOU-N NL 227.8 3.38 3.2 -1.2 1.18 0.862 196.4 3.2 -1 -2.8 5.1 $14,196,845
hargast01 1966 CLE-A AL 193.2 3.24 3.2 -1 1.123 0.862 166.6 3.1 -0.9 -2.4 4.6 $12,370,013
perryji01 1966 MIN-A AL 185.5 3.5 2.3 -0.1 1.123 0.862 159.9 2.2 -0.1 -2.4 4.5 $11,952,256
bolinbo01 1966 SF_-N NL 224.8 3.73 2 -0.6 1.18 0.862 193.8 2 -0.5 -2.9 4.4 $11,543,708
jacksal01 1966 STL-N NL 233.2 3.77 1.9 -0.7 1.18 0.862 201.1 2 -0.6 -2.9 4.3 $11,239,051
mcdowsa01 1966 CLE-A AL 195.5 3.51 2.4 -0.6 1.123 0.862 168.6 2.3 -0.5 -2.5 4.3 $11,108,460
siebeso01 1966 CLE-A AL 242.5 3.76 2.1 -1.4 1.123 0.862 209.1 2 -1.2 -3.2 4 $10,030,867
horlejo01 1966 CHI-A AL 212.3 3.62 2.3 -1.3 1.123 0.862 183.1 2.2 -1.1 -2.6 3.7 $9,037,994
nashji01 1966 KC_-A AL 127.8 2.87 2.8 -0.9 1.123 0.862 110.2 2.8 -0.8 -1.7 3.7 $8,787,425
bellga01 1966 CLE-A AL 255.9 4.05 1.2 -1.1 1.123 0.862 220.7 1.2 -0.9 -3.2 3.5 $8,072,719
johnto01 1966 CHI-A AL 224.4 3.98 1.3 -0.7 1.123 0.862 193.5 1.2 -0.6 -2.8 3.4 $7,949,444
osteecl01 1966 LA_-N NL 240.8 4.18 0.6 -0.4 1.18 0.862 207.7 0.6 -0.3 -3 3.4 $7,764,606
dierkla01 1966 HOU-N NL 187.4 3.75 1.6 -0.8 1.18 0.862 161.6 1.6 -0.7 -2.4 3.3 $7,733,421
suttodo01 1966 LA_-N NL 226.2 4 1.1 -1 1.18 0.862 195.1 1.2 -0.8 -2.9 3.3 $7,557,886
vealebo01 1966 PIT-N NL 268.9 4.07 1.1 -1.5 1.18 0.862 231.9 1.1 -1.3 -3.4 3.3 $7,537,008
grantmu01 1966 MIN-A AL 250.6 4.28 0.4 -0.7 1.123 0.862 216.1 0.4 -0.6 -3.2 3 $6,508,421
peterfr01 1966 NY_-A AL 216.4 4.23 0.5 -0.4 1.123 0.862 186.6 0.5 -0.3 -2.7 2.9 $6,160,176
   57. Chris Fluit Posted: October 18, 2011 at 04:24 PM (#3967293)
1966 Prelim

1. Frank Robinson- a new number one
2. Sandy Koufax- the same number two
3. Dick Allen
4. Juan Marichal
5. Ron Santo

6. Joe Torre- not a full catcher bonus (he spent a third of his time at first base) but enough to bump him up to here
7. Jim Bunning- I admit I missed on Bunning last year but not this time
8. Willie Mays
9. Harmon Killebrew- the second best player in the AL, needing a partial third base bonus to claw his way on to the bottom of the ballot
10. Roberto Clemente- Clemente is just a bit better than Aaron in everything this year but it's the difference between the 10th spot and the 16th

11. Bob Gibson
12. Willie McCovey
13. Al Kaline
14. Jim Kaat
15. Dick McAuliffe- bonus for position but not for playing time
   58. Alex King Posted: October 19, 2011 at 07:54 AM (#3967901)
Here is my preliminary top 5, along with my WAR estimates (a modified version of bbref WAR):

1. Mays 9.9
2. Marichal 9.7
3. Robinson 9.4
4. Koufax 9.2
5. Bunning 8.6

As this ranking is very different from the emerging consensus, I’d like to justify it by considering two cases—Mays vs. Robinson, and position players vs. pitchers.
First I want to consider Mays and Robinson—the crux of the issue here is fielding. In BR WAR, Robinson starts with a massive 37-run offensive advantage, but Mays whittles it down through baserunning, position and replacement. Here’s Mays vs. Robinson in chart form, with fielding removed (I’ll deal with it next):

Player Bat Bsr ROE DP Rpos Rep
Mays 38 2 2 0 0 21
Robinson 75 -1 1 -4 -9 18

At this point, Robinson has a 17-run advantage, and I feel that the various adjustments that got us from 37 to 17 are pretty reasonable. However, Mays blows Robinson out of the water in AFR, with a 32-run advantage (the reason they’re not separated by ~1.5 WAR in the final ratings is because of league quality adjustments and postseason play). Given the uncertainties in defensive statistics, I’m a little skeptical about the actual gap. Other defensive statistics show Mays and Robinson closer together: TZ shows a 26-run gap, DanR’s FWAA a 17-run gap, and BaseballGauge’s Fielding WAR a 14-run gap. Of these 4 fielding statistics, AFR is probably the most trustworthy, and FWAA and BaseballGauge FWAR (which are both based on Fielding Win Shares, and should thus be treated as one metric) are the least. Still, we should give these metrics some weight, and they seem to be indicating that the gap between Robinson and Mays isn’t quite as large as AFR would have us believe. If we call it a 25-run gap rather than a 32-run gap, Robinson now edges Mays by 0.4 WAR. Overall, I feel inclined to call it a tie between Robinson and Mays for now, and then look for additional information not captured in the uberstats (WPA for example) to swing my ballot towards Mays or Robinson.

I also have Marichal, Bunning, and Koufax a lot higher than consensus, but my system’s views are quite similar to DanR’s and BaseballGauge’s. The lower ratings I’ve seen in others’ ballots seem to be mainly influenced by Win Shares. And while Brock comes down on the side of Win Shares, I feel that the various WAR systems more accurately represent the contributions of starting pitchers (I think Tom Tango might have done a study indicating that WS does in fact underrate pitchers relative to their salaries). So overall, I feel fairly confident in my higher rankings of Bunning and Marichal.
   59. DL from MN Posted: October 19, 2011 at 02:44 PM (#3968043)
Alex King - I'd appreciate it if you could run a postseason WAR for Robinson and Koufax. I'm giving credit but it isn't as rigorous as your method.
   60. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: October 19, 2011 at 03:26 PM (#3968096)
Preliminary
1 Sandy Koufax
big gap
2 Juan Marichal
gap
3 Jim Bunning
4 Willie Mays
5 Frank Robinson
6 Ron Santo
7 Dick Allen
8 Roberto Clemente
9 Hank Aaron
10 Bob Gibson
11 Mike Cuellar
12 Joe Torre
13 Dick McAuliffe
14 Jim Maloney
15 Willie McCovey
16 Tony Oliva
17 Felipe Alou
18 Jim Ray Hart
19 Harmon Killebrew
20 Jim Fregosi


The problems I see with Frank R., are
negative fielder, negative baserunner, too many DPs and wrong league
but Lordy lordy could he hit and he could still hit at the end- how is F.Robbie NOT like Pete Rose- F.Robbie- as "player-manager" benched himself while within range of both 3000 hits and 600 Hrs- and he was a lot better hitter at that point than Rose was the last 3-4 years of Rose's career (F.Robbie had Boog at 1B and Rico Carty had to DH since his wheels were irreparably damaged- personally I think F.Robbie should have taken some of those Abs wasted on Charlie Spikes, but that would have entailed F.Robbbie hauling himself out to the OF- while managing- that really wasn't going to work even if Robbie could still play decently in the OF- F.Robbie made the right choice for the team- something Pete Rose was incapable of years later.
   61. DL from MN Posted: October 19, 2011 at 04:03 PM (#3968166)
Alternately, could you explain your method for calculating post-season WAR so I can do it myself?
   62. lieiam Posted: October 19, 2011 at 04:50 PM (#3968243)
Thanks to both Bleed the Freak and DL from MN for listing Dan R WARP stuff for me! I still need to add to my spreadsheet but it looks like that should keep Koufax in the #1 spot on my ballot (Robinson was #1 with 5 systems, but once I added in baseball prospectus Koufax passed him).

As for the recommendation that I sign up for the Yahoo Hall of Merit page.... How do I do that?
   63. Alex King Posted: October 19, 2011 at 05:00 PM (#3968260)
DL:
I have Robinson at 0.3 WAR and Koufax at -0.1 WAR. For batters, I calculate wOBA based on the players' stats and I use the league wOBA and multiplier (to determine batting runs) from this link: http://tangotiger.net/bdb/lwts_woba_for_bdb.txt. For Fielding, Replacement and Position, I pro-rate the players' fielding, replacement and position to their postseason PA. Then I add everything up and divide by the runs-per-wins multiplier for that year, determined by 2*(RPG^0.72).

For pitchers, I compare their runs allowed to the MLB average runs allowed (with park and opponent adjustments included). From this I calculate the pitcher's winning percentage, subtract replacement level, and multiply by innings.

If you want, I can send you my postseason spreadsheet.
   64. DL from MN Posted: October 19, 2011 at 05:42 PM (#3968327)
lieiam - go to Yahoo Groups and search for Hall of Merit. Click on the "Join this Group" button.

Alex - you could post your postseason spreadsheet to this group also.
   65. DL from MN Posted: October 19, 2011 at 05:45 PM (#3968336)
Alex - are you using a .500 replacement level for those postseason numbers?

Thanks for posting them. I was overestimating both players.
   66. Alex King Posted: October 19, 2011 at 10:30 PM (#3968554)
No--I'm using .420 for pitchers and -20 runs/600 PA for hitters--which if I'm doing it right works out to something like .370.
   67. Mike Emeigh Posted: October 20, 2011 at 12:03 AM (#3968614)
7. Roberto Clemente - won his only MVP as he hit 29 HR and 119 RBI (did some voters leave off Koufax??)


Yes, one voter left Koufax off (have to wonder who that was - back then the votes weren't as public as they are now). Koufax actually had more first place votes than did Clemente (9 to 8), but no one had Clemente lower than third while Koufax had three votes for fourth and fifth in addition to the one non-vote. Koufax finished 10 points behind Clemente.

The biggest thing here was that Felipe Alou got two first-place votes - but eight voters left him off the ballot.

-- MWE
   68. Alex King Posted: October 20, 2011 at 07:54 AM (#3969100)
OK I've posted the postseason credit spreadsheet to the Hall of Merit group.
   69. Alex King Posted: October 22, 2011 at 07:04 AM (#3971248)
After looking at Mays' and Robinson's win probability stats, I think that Mays will definitely end up ahead of Robinson on my ballot. Mays had a clutch score of 1.7, as opposed to -2.7 for Robinson, so Robinson's 37 run advantage in batting runs falls to just 2.3 wins in WPA/LI (7.6 to 5.3). This gap, though large, is most likely closed by Mays' superior defense at a tougher position and his better baserunning. So overall, though Robinson may appear to be a slam-dunk at first, Mays (at least to me) seems to be the better candidate.
   70. DL from MN Posted: October 24, 2011 at 02:06 PM (#3973121)
We'll start the election when fra paulo can get the thread posted.
   71. Mike Emeigh Posted: October 27, 2011 at 12:59 PM (#3976766)
From the ballot thread, John Murphy:

9) Al Kaline: Best AL center fielder.


I have to wonder how much the decision to keep Kaline in CF hurt the Tigers in 1966. The Tigers were second to the Orioles in runs scored, but next-to-last in runs allowed, and had a worse record at home (where outfield defense mattered quite a bit) than they did on the road. Stanley had a good year as the 4th OF in 1966, and perhaps had the Tigers traded some offense for some defense more often in Tiger Stadium they might have made up a good chunk of the difference between themselves and the Orioles.

-- MWE
   72. Alex King Posted: October 28, 2011 at 12:16 AM (#3977366)
Prelim top 10 ranking (based on my version of WAR only, with no additional modifications):

1. Mays
2. Marichal
3. Bunning
4. Robinson
5. Koufax
6. Santo
7. Clemente
8. Torre
9. Maloney
10. Alou

1-5 are very tightly bunched, so I'm going to need to go back and take a further look at these candidates. I'm only really confident of my placement of Mays relative to Frank Robinson; I'm much less confident of my arrangement of the pitchers, or of my placement of pitchers relative to the position players.

EDIT: Forgot to include Hank Aaron in my consideration set. He may make it onto my ballot somewhere near the bottom.
   73. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 28, 2011 at 12:24 AM (#3977388)
I have to wonder how much the decision to keep Kaline in CF hurt the Tigers in 1966. The Tigers were second to the Orioles in runs scored, but next-to-last in runs allowed, and had a worse record at home (where outfield defense mattered quite a bit) than they did on the road. Stanley had a good year as the 4th OF in 1966, and perhaps had the Tigers traded some offense for some defense more often in Tiger Stadium they might have made up a good chunk of the difference between themselves and the Orioles.

-- MWE


Hard to say, Mike. If Stanley would have been just as productive with the bat in a full season's work as he was in the limited role he had in reality, then the Tigers would have made it to second place. The problem is I'm skeptical he would have hit that well as the regular center fielder. Can't see the Orioles losing the pennant regardless. Interesting question, though.
   74. DL from MN Posted: October 28, 2011 at 01:47 PM (#3979524)

3. Bunning
4. Robinson
5. Koufax


Yeah, I'm having a difficult time figuring out that one. How did Bunning get that far up the list?
   75. Mike Emeigh Posted: October 28, 2011 at 02:53 PM (#3979605)
How did Bunning get that far up the list?


How massive is the adjustment for Dodger Stadium vs. Connie Mack? Think it would have to be pretty massive to move Bunning ahead of Koufax.

Bunning had a 2.08 ERA in 164 1/3 innings on the road, Koufax 1.96 in 151 2/3 innings. Bunning got a little more help from his defense than did Koufax, too.

-- MWE
   76. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: October 28, 2011 at 03:14 PM (#3979636)
Bunning had a 2.08 ERA in 164 1/3 innings on the road, Koufax 1.96 in 151 2/3 innings. Bunning got a little more help from his defense than did Koufax, too.


And Koufax didn't get to pitch in Dodger Stadium on the road...
   77. Alex King Posted: October 29, 2011 at 06:01 AM (#3982013)
Bunning got a little more help from his defense than did Koufax, too.


This is one of the points of contention, actually--TZ has the Dodgers at -12 and the Phillies at -2, while AFR has the Dodgers at 15 and the Phillies at -48. But, digging a little deeper, Bunning's FIP was comparatively higher than his RA than Koufax's was:

Pitcher RA FIP
Bunning 2.61 2.83
Koufax 2.06 2.07

Additionally, Koufax's BABIP was .258, right around his career average of .256, while Bunning had a .259 BABIP, a bit lower than his career mark of .273. So it seems that even if Philly was a far worse fielding team than the Dodgers, Bunning wasn't hurt too badly by his fielders' ineptitude. And park adjustments only make up some of the difference between Koufax and Bunning (PHI 0.99, LAD 0.91, taken from BR"s multiyear park factors):

Pitcher paRA paFIP
Bunning 2.64 2.76
Koufax 2.26 2.27

So what about Koufax's terrible hitting? Koufax was at -0.9 WAR with the bat, with Bunning at-0.1 WAR. 8 runs over Koufax's 323 innings is equivalent to 0.22 points of FIP, so Koufax still leads Bunning in both FIP, 2.49 to 2.76, and IP, 323 to 314. And while Koufax did have a fairly mediocre postseason, I don't think that should put him down below Bunning. So overall, although my initial rankings gave Bunning a slight edge over Koufax, it looks like this lead doesn't hold up upon closer inspection.

Now, what about Marichal? The gap between Marichal's FIP and his RA seems about right given his career-low BABIP of .221. Park adjusting (SF park factor is 1.03), Marichal is at 2.78 in 307 innings. But Marichal was actually a good hitter, with 0.6 batting WAR on the season. This 15-run difference between him and Koufax works out to 0.42 runs over the season, putting Marichal within spitting distance of Koufax. How I'll place them depends on a few things that I haven't yet worked out:

1. Is Koufax's relatively poor postseason enough to push him below Marichal?
2. Is FIP a good enough run estimator? Normally I'm somewhat skeptical of FIP because it approximates a nonlinear process (run scoring) linearly--but when we are comparing pitchers with nearly the same FIP, those differences matter less.
3. Why does Candlestick have a 1.03 park factor?

Right now, though, it looks like I definitely placed Bunning too high before, and he'll end up either 4th or 5th on my final ballot.
   78. bjhanke Posted: October 31, 2011 at 08:48 AM (#3983126)
This is Brock Hanke’s preliminary ballot. As you might imagine, my baseball time, these last three weeks, was unexpectedly spent on the Cardinals. I may get comments and perhaps even changes, done by tomorrow night, but that’s the deadline, since I sleep during the day. So if the deadline comes and I have nothing else, please transfer this to the final ballot.

1. Frank Robinson
2. Sandy Koufax
3. Willie Mays
4. Dick Allen
5. Juan Marichal
6. Jim Bunning
7. Ron Santo
8. Joe Torre
9. Roberto Clemente
10. Tommie Agee
   79. Al Peterson Posted: October 31, 2011 at 03:24 PM (#3983342)
I'm not too far off the norm it appears. Here's a top 15, will get ballot up in the other thread next day or two.

1966 Prelim MMP Ballot

1. Frank Robinson
2. Sandy Koufax
3. Juan Marichal
4. Willie Mays
5. Ron Santo
6. Dick Allen
7. Jim Bunning
8. Roberto Clemente
9. Joe Torre
10. Willie McCovey
11. Harmon Killebrew
12. Bob Gibson
13. Earl Wilson
14. Felipe Alou
15. Hank Aaron
   80. Yardape Posted: November 01, 2011 at 01:48 AM (#3983917)
I'd like to vote this year, since I actually have a ballot ready in time. (I hope). Here's my prelim. I use WAR as a basis; I primarily use Baseball Gauge because I like the layout, but I check B-Ref and Fangraphs too.

1. Juan Marichal
2. Sandy Koufax

These two are really close. Marichal's hitting moves him to the top for me; Koufax could have made it up with a good postseason, but he didn't.

3. Frank Robinson

The AL MVP and the best position player in the majors. He's close to the two pitchers at the top, but even a WS bonus is counterbalanced by the AL being a little weaker than the NL still. All three are close, though, and I can see good arguments for any of them.

4. Jim Bunning

The best of the rest of the pitchers. Very close to the position players below him. This might be too pitcher-heavy at the top of the ballot, but it looks like a good season to me.

5. Willie Mays
Down a little from his best years, but still the best CFer in the world.

6. Dick Allen
7. Ron Santo

Two third basemen who are very close. I flipped them back and forth a couple of times. Allen was better with the bat, Santo with the glove, and of course quantifying fielding is the toughest thing to do. Ultimately I went for the bat of Allen.

8. Joe Torre

The best catcher in the majors.

9. Bob Gibson

10. Roberto Clemente

Topples Hank Aaron as the best corner outfielder in the game, at least for this year.
   81. DL from MN Posted: November 01, 2011 at 02:10 PM (#3984131)
Reminder again - voting closes TODAY. The header on the ballot thread is incorrect.
   82. DL from MN Posted: November 01, 2011 at 02:50 PM (#3984167)
I'm encouraged by the voting so far. We've never had 4 players get 1st place votes before. Next year that will probably not happen.

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