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Wednesday, January 23, 2008

Ballot thread: Group 1, Still Under BBWAA Jurisdiction

This is the ballot thread for the Group 1 players, those still under BBWAA jurisdiction.

Alphaetically (year of induction to HoM in parenthesis):

Bert Blyleven (1998)
Will Clark (2006)
Andre Dawson (2005)
Dwight Evans (1997)
Keith Hernandez (1996)
Mark McGwire (2007)
Tim Raines (2008)
Willie Randolph (2001)
Bret Saberhagen (2008)
Dave Stieb (2002)
Alan Trammell (2002)
Lou Whitaker (2001)

Vote will be straight rank order ballot, with no bonus points, so 12-11-10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1.

Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: January 23, 2008 at 02:20 PM | 106 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: January 23, 2008 at 02:23 PM (#2674545)
Hot topics.
   2. DL from MN Posted: January 23, 2008 at 03:26 PM (#2674589)
BBWAA jurisdiction ballot

1) Bert Blyleven - pitcher of the same caliber as Niekro and Perry which is really good.
2) Tim Raines - As good as Tony Gwynn, best leadoff hitter in NL history?
3) Alan Trammell - A median HoM SS.
4) Lou Whitaker - A median HoM 2B.
5) Dwight Evans - Strong defense, well rounded player
6) Mark McGwire - Below average defender and baserunner, often injured, massive power accounts for all of his value
7) Bret Saberhagen - I like the peak he has better than Stieb.
8) Will Clark - Better hitter than Hernandez, not quite the glove
9) Keith Hernandez - Best fielding modern 1B, great OBP
10) Dave Stieb - Solid pitcher from the 1980s, why do people like Jack Morris better?
11) Willie Randolph - Worst 2B in my PHoM, defines the in-out line.
12) Andre Dawson - OBP is too low, how could he possibly rate ahead of Raines?
   3. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: January 23, 2008 at 04:19 PM (#2674623)
Group 1 Ranking

Clear electees
1. Alan Trammell, $250M--I imagine everyone is sick of hearing my schtick about 70s and 80s shortstops.
2. Blyleven, $242M--Best unelected pitcher. Not opening up the WPA can of worms for him unless someone can make that data available for every pitcher.
3. Rock, $230M--http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/06/sports/baseball/06score.html.
4. McGwire, $188M--No boycott, best hitter on ballot.
5. Whitaker, $183M--no peak, played during a strong period for 2B, but just a tremendous career.
6. DwEvans, $175M--Monster strike year provides peak counterpart to unquestionable career value. Great fielder, plus baserunner.

Borderliners
7. Hernandez, $156M + yet-unquantified fielding boost--DRA says Hernandez really was a +200 fielder, which bumps him up in my evaluation.
8. Clark, $162M--More productive in the Steroid Era than I remembered, and the peak speaks for itself.
9. Saberhagen, $161M--I was leaving out his rookie relief year. Pitching peak exhibit A.
10. Dawson, $156M--Great player from 1980 to 1983; solid one for a zillion others.
11. Stieb, $151M--and if I used WPA, he'd probably be nowhere near my HoM.
12. Randolph, $151M--Latter half of his career was deep for 2B; only one real peak year.
   4. ronw Posted: January 23, 2008 at 07:53 PM (#2674791)
Group 1 ranking

1. Tim Raines. 5 MVP, 10 AS, 22.7 BWS/700PA, 2008 – 1. It is neck-and-neck between him and Blyleven.

2. Bert Blyleven. 2 CY, 16 AS, 20.4 PWS/300IP, 1998 – 2 (behind Gary Carter). Now I’m a bit surprised he finished behind Carter on my ballot and in the election as a whole.

3. Mark McGwire. 5 MVP, 11 AS, 29.5 BWS/700PA, 2007 – 3 (behind Cal Ripken, Tony Gwynn) Slots perfectly as #3. No steroid dock.

4. Alan Trammell. 3 MVP, 9 AS, 16.8 BWS/300IP, 2002 – 4. As I said in 2002, I’m shocked Whitaker was a better hitter. Trammell’s fielding and position make up for the hitting deficit.

5. Keith Hernandez. 5 MVP, 10 AS, 22.7 BWS/700PA, 1996 – 3 (behind Dick Redding, Pete Browning). Fielding gets him above the Thrill.

6. Will Clark. 3 MVP, 10 AS, 25.6 BWS/700PA, 2006 – 2 (behind Dick Redding). Better hitter than Keith Hernandez, could rank above him if I did this another week.

7. Lou Whitaker. 1 MVP, 13 AS, 18.7 BWS/300IP, 2001 – 8. He went in so quickly, I didn’t have much time to analyze him. I think I had him ranked too low initially.

8. Dave Stieb. 4 CY, 8 AS, 21.9 PWS/300IP, 1998 – 15, 1999 – 7, 2000 – 5, 2001 – 4, 2002 – 5. At first I was not too enamored of Stieb, but he ended up pretty high. I’ve changed my thinking on him relative to Whitaker.

9. Willie Randolph. 1 MVP, 10 AS, 15.8 BWS/700PA, 1998 – 14, 2000 – 14, 2001 – 15. At least he made a few ballots, although I may like Saberhagen more.

10. Dwight Evans. 3 MVP, 8 AS, 19.5 BWS/700PA, never on ballot. I was never that fond of Dewey’s candidacy, and even now there are a few contemporary outfielders outside the HOM I would rank above him (Singleton, R. Smith, Bonds).

11. Bret Saberhagen. 4 CY, 6 AS, 22.7 PWS/300IP, never on ballot. I like the peak, but didn’t like it enough for a ballot slot.

12. Andre Dawson. 2 MVP, 9 AS, 18.1 BWS/700PA, never on ballot. Definitely lowest on this list, according to my thinking.
   5. sunnyday2 Posted: January 23, 2008 at 08:49 PM (#2674831)
These 5 are obvious BBWAA type selections, IMO

1. Mark McGwire--massive peak, Bill James once had him the #3 1B all-time, and even if that's a bit high....
2. Tim Raines--James had him the #8 LF and I could see him higher than that
3. Bert Blyleven--I won't even bother to say that the average fan and writer under-estimates him
4. Will Clark--I won't even bother to say, well, never mind
5. Alan Trammell--ditto, but of course that pretty much covers all of these guys, else they'd be in the Coop by now

(big gap)

Then 5 who are more VC type selections

6. Keith Hernandez--did everything well, the curse of death

(little gap)

7. Andre Dawson--I have this nagging feeling I'm over-rating him...or not
8. Dave Stieb
9. Lou Whitaker
10. Bret Saberhagen

(little gap)

Then a couple guys who are more HoVG types, not that they're not better than about 15-20 guys who are already there

11. Dwight Evans

(gap)

12. Willie Randolph
   6. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: January 23, 2008 at 09:14 PM (#2674848)
Why so down on Dewey, sunnyday? As a WS peak voter (adjusting for season length) he's got 39-31-29...isn't that strong?

Remember as well that WS compresses corner outfield defense into an extremely narrow range--according to WS the best corner OF's are like +6 runs and the worst -6 or something...when in fact the spread is about 2.5 times as large...that really hurts good fielders like Evans (or, say, Clemente), and helps bad ones (like Frank Howard or Greg Luzinski).
   7. Jim Sp Posted: January 23, 2008 at 11:20 PM (#2674951)
1. Blyleven--well, I suppose you guys know that he's overwhelmingly qualified.
2. Trammell--and you know I feel the same as Dan about shortstops.
3. Raines--the forgotten great leadoff man. devastating offensive force at his peak, plus the baserunning.
4. McGwire--yes, those homeruns still count.
5. Whitaker--great career at 2B, rather obviously above the line for second basemen that we've established.
6. Evans--great defense, baserunning, nice strike year. Really, Dan and I are different people.
7. Saberhagen--outstanding peak for a pitcher. 1985-1994 are enough for me with 1337 K/352BB= 3.8K/W for 1917 IP. Top BP W3: 11.7, 10.2, 10.2, 8.7. Even 1999 is remarkable, 81K and only 11BB in 119 IP. There’s no doubt he was great, 2562 IP is enough bulk for me.
8. Clark--Peak is there, but the career is lacking.
9. Hernandez--With a sizeable boost for the incredible D.
10. Dawson--Peak is there but short.
11. Randolph--Fine player, but this is a tough crowd. The poor man's Whitaker.
12. Stieb--Good pitcher, but I think we got a little overexcited about him. Some of those teams behind him sure did stink though.
   8. DL from MN Posted: January 23, 2008 at 11:33 PM (#2674959)
5 ballots, 4 different #1 placements. I don't think we'll exceed that though.
   9. OCF Posted: January 24, 2008 at 12:17 AM (#2674980)
1. Blyleven. Career totals at the Perry/Niekro/Carlton level, accomplished a few years later when such bulk was harder to come by.
2. Raines. Another year at his 83-87 level and I'd put him first. Should have won at least one MVP, probably 1986.
3. Trammell. Great players can collect at SS. Should have won the 1987 MVP.
4. McGwire. Why was his BA as high as it was in 1998? Because a HR is a hit, too. Should have won the 1998 MVP.
5. Clark. Not as much career as we'd like - could still play when he hung them up. Monster peak. Should have been 1989 MVP, and 1988 deserves a look, too.
6. Whitaker. A better offensive player than Trammell, but without an obvious MVP year, and a little of that was as a platoon player. Ranks behind Trammell because 2B does not equal SS.
7. Hernandez. OBP-first offensive value, and a defensive force at 1B. Did win half an MVP, probably deserved all of it.
8. Stieb. Choosing him over Saberhagen as a slight preference for the consecutive peak over the alternating pattern, and a little more bulk in his peak years.
9. Saberhagen. Although the alternating pattern did include some terrific seasons.
10. Randolph. Hard to get a solid grip on exactly how to value an extreme OBP over SLG shaped offensive player.
11. Evans. A nice all-around player, but on re-examining his case, I'm not that sure why we took him over, say, Reggie Smith or Bobby Bonds. Not that high an offensive peak.
12. Dawson. The one I never voted for - I couldn't get past the OBP.
   10. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: January 24, 2008 at 12:38 AM (#2674990)
OCF--No way on the 1979 NL MVP. Schmidt and Winfield both run circles around Keef as far as I'm concerned. The difference between Evans and Smith (who in all likelihood will go into the HoM in 2009) is defense; the difference between Evans and Bonds is career. Both are significant.
   11. sunnyday2 Posted: January 24, 2008 at 12:55 AM (#2674995)
What O said. Dewey's peak pales next to Will the Thrill's or Albert Belle's, not to mention McGwire's. I suppose it's unfair but he was also overshadowed for a number of years by Lynn and Rice. Eventually, yes, he emerged as the best of the three, but never really had the peak that they did. I mean, 1981, but regress that and.... I guess, bottom line, the HoM is bit top-heavy with hitters and so Stieb and Sabes benefit and Dewey doesn't from that perception.
   12. OCF Posted: January 24, 2008 at 01:10 AM (#2675002)
I'll admit that for 1979 I was just thinking about Stargell and Parker, and I wasn't really looking around the rest of the league.

I'm trying out a new version of consensus score just for an election like this. (Limited number of candidates, must vote for everyone.) It's a -100 to + 100 scale. If everyone just rolled dice or flipped coins to make a ballot, we'd get an average score of zero. With six votes cast, it's averaging +80. That will probably fade downwards a little as we collect the full range of opinion, but there may be quite a bit of agreement.
   13. Rafael Bellylard: Built like a Panda. Posted: January 24, 2008 at 01:28 AM (#2675005)
1. Raines: Ahead of McGwire and Blyleven by quite a bit. I know sabrmetrics killed the stolen base, but sometimes it does count for a lot. This is one of those times.
2. McGwire: Neck and neck with Blyleven. I said I liked peak over career. Easily the best pure hitter of the group, with the highest peak.
3. Blyleven: Ok, I was wrong, Blyleven is a HoFer. His career reminds me of one season when I bowled. I averaged 210 with a high game of 258 and a low game of 165. Nothing too good, nothing too bad, but the end product is impressive.
4. Trammell: With positional credit, he edges ahead of Dawson.
5. Dawson: Dawson gets credit for power/speed that overshadows his poor OBP.
6. Stieb: A better pitcher than I'd have given him credit for.
7. Saberhagen: Just edges out the next two. Will continue to review my system as regarding ranking pitchers and hitters together.
8. Whitaker: I was surprised to see Sweet Lou and Dewey in a virtual tie.
9. D. Evans: I'd have thought he'd rank higher, but the difference between Raines and Blyleven is about the same as the difference between Blyleven and Dewey.
10. W. Clark: One of my favorite players of all times. I was distressed to see him rank this low until I really took a hard look at how lacking his career numbers are compared to the others.
11. Randolph: Had he not been a 2B, he'd not be in the same area code as the others. Frankly, I think these last two got in solely on a quota basis.
12. Hernandez: He's Will Clark +(career value-peak value)
   14. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: January 24, 2008 at 01:29 AM (#2675006)
You'd have to regress the crap out of 1981 to make it look like anything but a no-doubt MVP season, absolutely comparable to the best of Don't Call Him Joey or the Thrill (once you account fully for defense and baserunning, which WS obviously does not). But certainly that's his only year anywhere near that stratosphere.
   15. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: January 24, 2008 at 01:37 AM (#2675011)
pocket8pin--huh? Blyleven should have been in the AL MVP discussion in 1973, although I'd have taken Carew over him and maybe Grich too.
   16. Howie Menckel Posted: January 24, 2008 at 03:04 AM (#2675053)
Group 1 ballot

1. BERT BLYLEVEN - Middle of the pack among HOM SP electees, so it's silly that he's not in the HOF. Cherry-pickers delight: only won 19+ twice/but won 14+ a dozen times/but lost 14+ 8 times/in top 10 in IP 11 times/but only top 3 in IP twice/never won a Cy Young/but top 4 in voting 3 times, etc. Placed in top 4 in Ks 13 times as well. Ultimately, I see a Bunning-esque 7-year prime, which is a very good start as I voted for Bunning. What makes Blyleven an easy HOMer is that he has 7 MORE seasons of 116 to 129 ERA+. Not quite as insanely durable as some imagine, but he smokes the entire Bunning/Rixey/Wynn/Pierce/Drysdale crowd for sure.

2. MARK MCGWIRE - I didn't vote for him in the "HOF" thread because I want to wait one more year to let some steroid dust settle. But setting that aside...Cleared 170 OPS+ a remarkable 7 times, with a monster 216 and a 200 as well. 4-time OPS+ league champ. Dreadful on the basepaths and sometimes even in the field, but the peak/prime is too huge to dismiss.

3. TIM RAINES - Moves up a spot from my prelim due to reconsideration of the incredible and practically unprecedented value of his baserunning. But it still doesn't allow Raines to match McGwire's peak/prime, I don't think, and neither has that extended greatness that defines the inner inner circle. Love the 1983-87, and the SB pct as well. But after 1987, he only totaled 600 PA 3 times (4 if you count 1994, but who's to say he'd have stayed healthy anyway?). He's a mostly forgettable part-timer after age 35. His last top 10 in OBP (his bread and butter) came in 1989. And yet he should be allowed to coast into the HOF in 2009, because his peak is worthy.

4. ALAN TRAMMELL - I had him a hair ahead of Ozzie when we inducted both. Six OPS+s of 130 or better, and a 7th at 120 - for an SS who can field, too. What more do voters want? Also a 114 and a 113, and he's an asset in his 5 seasons of 89 to 99 OPS+ as well. Durability is a fair knock, yes, and keeps him from being mentioned with some of the higher-tier HOM SSs.

5. WILL CLARK - Just the right profile, in terms of prime, fielding, consistency, just enough durability, etc. Peaked by age 27, but kept battling back when he slipped even slightly and had only one lousy year. Decline phase? Hit .319 with a 144 OPS+ in his final season. I have him well below Trammell, and I'm not emphatic about him, but he's wildly underrated for sure.

6. LOU WHITAKER - This is about the borderline of "hey, he HAS to go in" for me. Quality hitter at a nice spot to offer it for a long time, but the "D" gave out a little too soon and he Norm Cash-ed out down the stretch in terms of platooning. Still, he was nearly Doyle/Lazzeri as a hitter and a very good fielder for half his career.

7. DAVE STIEB - I've been quite supportive of him, but then as a high-consensus voter I was just about out of "favorite teddy bears" to vote for, too. Who knew that Ryan was not better than Stieb either by peak or by prime - so that he needed 'career' to win the day? I have Stieb's best 6-7 years right at the Bunning-Pierce level, which is HOM-endorsed both by me and by the electorate.

8. KEITH HERNANDEZ - Very close vs Stieb. I had him 5th the year he was elected. Very similar hitter to Beckley - slightly higher peak, a bit less career, and I'm a bit career-oriented. I dont' try to 'pin a number' on a defensive bonus for Hernandez, but there is one for sure. I've never seen another 1B manage the play nearly as well; he was begging for them to hit it to him with runners on base, because he knew exactly what to do.

9. BRET SABERHAGEN - I had him 5th as well, and behind David Cone. 1985, 1987, 1989, 1991, 1994 - this is a truly great pitcher in those years. So even though he brings little else to the table - well, the 1998-99 300 total IP or so were good, too - it's enough for HOM status. Well, maybe.

10. DWIGHT EVANS - I have him as a tossup offensively with Bob Johnson. Almost identical for best 10 years; Evans has the lead with some D thrown in. But Johnson has that very useful 11-13 seasons (127-25-25 OPS+) while Evans finally starts petering out. Splitting hairs there. Underrated, but not quite a HOMer I don't think.

11. WILLIE RANDOLPH - 10th for me the year he got in. I like Willie a little more than Nellie Fox. Remarkably had NINE seasons with an OPS+ between 100 to 107, which combined with slick 2B fielding is quite a valuable player. Also cleared 120 OPS+ three times, which is outstanding with this fielding/position. Nice player.

12. ANDRE DAWSON - Along with Hernandez, my favorite player on the ballot personally. Loved sitting in the RF bleachers in Wrigley, joining in the collective "We are not worthy" bow. But he didn't even make my ballot the year he got in. The bottom line is that he simply made too many outs to be elected (per PA of course). And my system basically throws his last 1100 PA out the window (and counting stats), for which he should be grateful.
   17. Chris Cobb Posted: January 24, 2008 at 03:24 AM (#2675073)
HoM-not-HoF BBWAA Jurisdiction Ballot

I’ve been tinkering with my system to try to handle the ranking of pitchers vs. hitters better, and I think I have made an improvement. By setting replacement level at 80 ERA+/DERA+, which is I think more or less what Dan R and Joe have been using in their pitching work, I get WAR derived from my home-grown pitcher win shares that seem to scale pretty closely to Dan R’s position player totals. I have worked up these totals for Blyleven, Saberhagen, and Stieb and adjusted my rankings accordingly. I’ve ranked directly by the numbers, no fudging. It's nice to be able to test out changes to the system with small groups of players.

1) Bert Blyleven -- 368. The revised system treats Bert about the same (he was at 370 before), which shows he had strong value above average as well as good career value above replacement. If I went exclusively by the high-replacement level numbers given by my new pitcher system and Dan R’s WAR, my top 3 would match his.
2) Tim Raines -- 342. One of the great leadoff hitters of all time.
3) Alan Trammell -- 330.5. Dan R's WAR loves Trammell. If I relied only on his system, Trammell would be handily in the top spot. However, I do not entirely accept contextual value above replacement as defining merit: in my view, even with a broadly based replacement baseline, there are still variations caused not by real talent demands on defense but by widely held errors of judgment about ability. The 1970-1990 shortstop trough I treat as one of those errors. Still, the writers should get their act together and notice how good Trammell was!
4) Mark McGwire – 303. No steroid deduction. Not a well-rounded player, but being the best pure power hitter of your generation and having good plate discipline will make up for a lot of basepath-clogging.
5) Lou Whitaker – 301.5. Rises with the inclusion of Dan R's WAR in his assessment, though not as much as Trammell.
6) Dwight Evans -- 290. Like a lot of players on this ballot, he was rich in the skills that the non-sabermetrically minded haven’t yet noticed.
7) Will Clark – 274. What a peak, and (as Dan R noted) better after his peak was over than is generally perceived.
8) Willie Randolph -- 264. Bringing him back up to where my system puts him.
9) Bret Saberhagen – 260. When replacement level is raised, his peak stands out more clearly as truly exceptional (he was at 229 before). Noses past Hernandez into the #9 spot.
10) Keith Hernandez – 259. See comment on Dwight Evans. I look forward to the day when a really solid assessment of his fielding value will be well established.
11) Dave Stieb – 252. Borderline candidate, but he was outstanding in his prime, both durable and effective when it was hard to be either one (228 in old system).
12) Andre Dawson – 249. Borderline candidate. Neither his peak nor his career is quite good enough on its own, but together they are just enough.
   18. karlmagnus Posted: January 24, 2008 at 03:33 AM (#2675075)
Here's my ballot, with comments from the year they were elected to the HOM

1. Bert Blyleven 1998 2nd Had a case for #1, but Beckley got him by a nose on longevity – 4970IP@118 and 287-250 is great stuff, but not the longest pitching career or the most wins of his era, which Jake is as hitter (OK 2 hits short of Keeler.)

2. Mark McGwire 2007 4th TB+BB/PA .646, TB+BB/Outs 1.033, spectacular. 1626 hits @162. In terms of hits, will be one of the shortest careers we’ve enshrined. In terms of BIP, probably the fewest – everything’s a walk or a HR. No other candidate has this pattern; presumably we’ll see it more in the future. Yes, in, but only just.

3. Tim Raines 2008 5th Grossly overrated by WS but perhaps a little underrated by memory. 2605 hits@123, plus about 4 for CF would put him below the borderline, probably around Staub. However SB exceeds 3xCS by 370, which adds about another 7% and makes his adjusted OPS+134, which is above the borderline. Nevertheless, so are Joss, Cicotte, Lombardi and Stephens.

4. Lou Whitaker 2001 6th 2369 hits at 117, TB+BB/PA.486 TB+BB/Outs.735 Correct him for being a 2B and he’s clearly a little better than Schang on career length but not quite Stephens, though one could go either way on that. Definitely short of Lombardi, though.

5. Alan Trammell. 2002 9th 2365 hits@110, which equates to about 130 for an OF. TB+BB/PA .457, TB+BB/Outs .672.

6. Bret Saberhagen. 2008 11th Short career, not enough wins, but what a quality! 167-117, 2563IP@126ERA+ 126 ERA+ is equal 52nd all-time; Bret’s up there. And I ALWAYS thought of him as HOF/HOM quality, especially when with the Red Sox.

7. Will Clark 2006 14th A little better than Reggie Smith 2176 hits@138OPS+ TB+BB/PA.543 TB+BB/Outs.855

8. Dwight Evans 1997 16th Surprised me by being just a little better than Rice, because of his fielding. 2446 hits@127 less than Rice but TB+BB/PA .531 TB+BB/Outs .807 definitely a touch better, plus a fielding bonus. Would have been just on rather than just off ballot in later years.

9. Andre Dawson. 2005 20th Longer career than Lynn but not as good. 2774 hits @119. TB+BB/PA .499 TB+BB/Outs .705

10. Dave Stieb 2002 23rd 176-137 very unimpressive but 122 ERA+ for 2895 innings more so. Moved up a little on 2002 ballot as I don’t think he’s far below Gossage.

11. Keith Hernandez 1996 61st 2182 hits @129 just not very impressive – would need 135 to be on the ballot. OVERRATED! TB+BB/PA .501

12. Willie Randolph 2001 75th. Somewhat better than contemporary Nettles, adjusting for positional difference, but well off the ballot. 2210 hits at 104 TB+BB/PA.429 TB+BB/Outs.646
   19. Rick A. Posted: January 24, 2008 at 04:30 AM (#2675100)
Nice to be posting again at the HOM.

1. Bert Blyleven - Ranks higher among pitchers than Raines does among hitters.
2. Tim Raines - Clear HOM. The writers think Rice was better than him?
3. Mark McGwire - Super peak.
4. Alan Trammell - OK just what are the writers looking at?
5. Lou Whitaker - Close to Trammell.
6. Dave Stieb - Better than Saberhagen in my estimation.
7. Dwight Evans - Career length gets him ahead of Clark.
8. Will Clark - Just beats Hernandez.
9. Keith Hernandez - Great defense, very good hitter.
----- PHOM in/out line ------------------
10. Bret Saberhagen - Very good pitcher. Not too far from PHOM.
11. Willie Randolph - One of my favorite players. Sorry Willie, just not enough.
12. Andre Dawson - Long career, but just too similar to other OFers not in my PHOM.
   20. Howie Menckel Posted: January 24, 2008 at 05:26 AM (#2675127)
"I'm trying out a new version of consensus score just for an election like this. (Limited number of candidates, must vote for everyone.) It's a -100 to + 100 scale."

I was JUST thinking that, for reasons I can't explain, these types of votes might really identify who our kindred spirits are.

Is there a logical basis to support that?
   21. OCF Posted: January 24, 2008 at 05:49 AM (#2675137)
Howie, in this particular case, I think there's going to be just too much agreement to tell much of anything. Most of the voters are going to be packed together into a fairly small space.
   22. Howie Menckel Posted: January 24, 2008 at 05:51 AM (#2675140)
Might there be a "tell-tale candidate?"

Dawson might be one. And maybe Stieb/Saberhagen, or Evans? A small sense from McGwire voting?
   23. Chris Cobb Posted: January 24, 2008 at 05:55 AM (#2675145)
Hm. If these votes reveal kindred spirits, it may be that they do so merely by removing many of the issues on which we tend to differ. That is, they'll reveal some common ground that might have been hidden when we were ranking a hundred players rather than 12, but the things in common are so small a part of our total set of inclinations that two voters who agree about how to rank these twelve players aren't even close to kindred spirits.

Just a thought: I haven't (and probably don't have the knowledge) to think through the full meaning of these consensus scores. But I'm curious about them.

By a summation of the differences in ranking of each player, I find that I differ 14 places from Dan R, 20 places from Howie, and 21 places from Karlmagnus. I agree with Karl on the placements of Blyleven and Clark, with Howie on the placements of Blyleven, Saberhagen, and Dawson, and with Dan R on the placements of McGwire, Whitaker, Evans, Saberhagen, and Stieb.

Dan and I disagree most on Randolph. Howie and I differ most on Stieb and Evans. Karl and I differ most on Randolph.
   24. AJMcCringleberry Posted: January 24, 2008 at 05:58 AM (#2675146)
1. Tim Raines - Best player from '83 to '89?
2. Bert Blyleven - Could've been #1. Top 15 pitcher. Interchangable with Carlton, Niekro, and Perry.
3. Will Clark - Should've won MVP in '89. Second best in '88.
4. Alan Trammell - Could've won MVP in '87.
5. Mark McGwire - Should've won MVP in '98. Great peak. Pretty short career. Another very good season or two and he moves up to at least #3.
6. Lou Whitaker - Great defender, good hitter.
7. Andre Dawson - Nice run from '80-'83, especially as a good defensive CFer.
8. Dwight Evans - About equal to Dawson, I'd rather have the center fielder.
9. Keith Hernandez - Greatest fielding first baseman. Dyes hair.
10. Dave Stieb - He's the best pitcher of the '80's, for whatever that's worth.
11. Bret Saberhagen - Excellent peak. Never walked anyone.
12. Willie Randolph - Good defender, good hitter. Top 20-25 2B. Only one of these 12 not in my PHOM.
   25. Rob_Wood Posted: January 24, 2008 at 06:29 AM (#2675160)
Final ranking largely based upon a career value perspective:

1. Bert Blyleven
2. Mark McGwire
3. Tim Raines
4. Lou Whitaker
5. Alan Trammell
6. Dwight Evans
7. Will Clark
8. Bret Saberhagen
9. Willie Randolph
10. Andre Dawson
11. Keith Hernandez
12. Dave Stieb
   26. OCF Posted: January 24, 2008 at 06:38 AM (#2675167)
Well, the score I'm working out shows agreement with the average of everyone. I we were to stop it right now after 13 votes, the 9 highest scores would all lie between 79 and 82. That's part of what I meant by a small space.
   27. OCF Posted: January 24, 2008 at 07:34 AM (#2675196)
It's also easier in this format to fairly measure our disagreement about candidate by just taking the standard deviation of that candidate's votes. Through 13 ballots, we disagree the most about Dawson, followed by Stieb and Evans. We disagee the least about Blyleven by a tiny margin below Raines.
   28. TomH Posted: January 24, 2008 at 02:03 PM (#2675257)
1-Raines – 2nd best leadoff man in NL; not obvious he is #1 here, but he’s as good as any
2-McGwire – 12th best OPS+ ever; more than merely a home run hitter
3-Blyleven – 5000 IP of good pitching; dinged some for his unclutch wins
4-Trammell – good hitter for a 3Bman or CFer, and he played a fine SS.
5-Whitaker – better hitter than his DP buddy
6-Evans - .646 OWP, 10000 PA, and a gold-glove fielder
7-Clark – better hitter than Dwight
8-Randolph – lesser hitter than Lou
9-Hernandez – amazing glove, shoulda avoided the drugs
10-Saberhagen – great peak years
11-Stieb – a few unclutch wins drop him below Bret
12-Dawson – a fine player, but low OBP puts him at the bottom here; still could deserve to be a borderline HoFer in my book
   29. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: January 24, 2008 at 04:31 PM (#2675348)
The first seven I fully support:

1) Tim Raines-LF/CF/DH (n/e): Not an inner-circle player, but could have been if he had sustained his prime a little longer. But he doesn't need to apologize for his career - it was still exceptional. Best ML left fielder for 1986 and 1987 (I like Guerrero in '85, but that's arguable and Raines did have a monster season). Close to being the best NL left fielder in the NL in 1983. Close to being the best ML center fielder in 1984.

2) Bert Blyleven-P (n/e): Not one of the inner-circle HoM pitchers, but a great pitcher, nevertheless. Better than quite a few hurlers from his own generation already in the HOF. Very close to being the best AL pitcher in 1973.

3) Mark McGwire-1B (n/e): Best power hitter of his generation...well, until Bonds decided to do whatever you think he did. Best ML first baseman for 1998. Best AL first baseman for 1987, 1988, 1996.

4) Alan Trammell-SS (n/e): Well, he'll be turning double plays with his HoM partner Sweet Lou in no time. Nice combination of hitting, defense and career length make him a fine choice for induction. Best ML shortstop for 1987 and 1990. Best AL shortstop for 1988.

5) Lou Whitaker-2B (n/e): Best AL second baseman of the Eighties. I knew Whitaker would do well in my system, but not to the point that I would have him above Winfield. It enforces my view that the failure to even keep him on the HOF ballot for a second year was ludicrous. Best AL second baseman for 1982, 1984, 1985 and 1988. Best ML second baseman for 1983 and close in 1988.

6) Will Clark-1B (n/e): The Thrill was legitimately great as his peak, but his career doesn't stand out among his contemporaries at first base to be an inner-circle HoMer. Still, he did enough to warrant induction. Best ML first baseman for 1988, 1989 and 1991. Best NL first baseman for 1992

7) Keith Hernandez-1B (n/e): Surprised me that he made my ballot, but I'm comfortable with it since he was an unbelievable defensive player and a skilled batter. Best ML first baseman for 1979, 1980 and 1984. Best NL first baseman for 1977, 1981, 1985 and 1986.

I believe the next 5 are on the outside looking in, but they are by no means bad candidates:

8) Willie Randolph-2B (n/e): Borderline guy. Very underrated player.

9) Dave Stieb-P (n/e)

and

10) Bret Saberhagen-P (n/e): Both of them are peak candidates and terrific representatives of that class. With that said, Stieb's career credentials have been overrated by a paucity of durable pitchers starting their careers during the late Seventies, while Saberhagen clearly is behind Clemens, Maddux and Glavine in that regard (no, he shouldn't be totally compared to all three of those pitchers as well as others not named, but he definitely shouldn't be excluded from comparisons with them as if they never were his contemporaries either).

11) Andre Dawson-CF/RF (n/e): If he had played the vast majority of games in center, he would have been on my regular election ballot. As it is, he was close, but no cigar.

12) Dwight Evans-RF (n/e): Best Boston outfielder of his generation, I'll take him over Rice any day of the week.
   30. Sean Gilman Posted: January 24, 2008 at 10:40 PM (#2675650)
I like all these players, most of them quite a bit, so it's quite tough to split hairs between them. But split we must.

BBWAA Jurisdiction:

1. Bert Blyleven -- A clear #1 for me. By WARP1 he’s got the most valuable career by a huge margin, as well as having the highest peak, though that is more dependent on how you define “peak”. It’s a different story with Win Shares, but since that stats almost entirely useless for modern pitchers, I’m not too worried about it.

2. Tim Raines -- Wins Shares’s clear favorite, he’s got a decent career value edge on Clark in WARP1 as well.

3. Will Clark -- WS loves him, giving him the best 3 and 5 year (consecutive) peaks of anyone on the ballot. WARP likes him as well, but not that much. Hernandez has a slight edge in best 5 WARP1, but I suspect WARP’s overrating his 1B defense a bit.

4. Dave Stieb -- Again, Win Shares can’t deal with pitching, but both systems see Stieb and Saberhagen as pretty uch identical. Stieb goes a couple spots higher thanks to the consecutive peak measurement.

5. Keith Hernandez -- Stieb also has a consecutive peak edge on Hernandez. That and my distrust of WARPs measurement of his fielding drops him between the two pitchers.

6. Bret Saberhagen -- When he was good, he was really really good. The fact that you couldn’t know which Saberhagen year you were going to get has to hurt him a bit, hence the consecutive peak issue.

7. Alan Trammell -- WARP1 has him better (slightly) for both peak and career than McGwire. Win Shares says the exact opposite. I trust WARP more.

8. Mark McGwire -- Win Shares loves his peak, trailing only Clark and Raines. WARP has it superior to only Randolph and Whitaker (and maybe Evans).

9. Lou Whitaker -- Tremendously valuable career (second to Blyleven by WARP1, second to Raines by WS), but his peak can’t match the other guys on this ballot, who all had pretty good careers themselves.

10. Andre Dawson -- I like Dawson a lot, yet he comes in all the way down here. Great balance of peak and career, but in this group he doesn’t really stand out.

11. Dwight Evans -- Quite similar to Evans, though his peak wasn’t quite as good.

12. Willie Randolph -- The only one of these guys not in my PHOM. He’s got pretty good career value in both WARP and WS, but WARP hates his peak (especially relative to everyone else here). He’s Lou Whitaker with 30 less career Win Shares and a slightly worse peak.
   31. Sean Gilman Posted: January 24, 2008 at 10:42 PM (#2675651)
Sigh. In addition to being similar to Evans, Dwight Evans is similar to Andre Dawson.
   32. Al Peterson Posted: January 25, 2008 at 02:56 PM (#2675913)
HOM not HOF – Group 1

Methodology in brief: The system used for my ranking entails a little bit of everything including WS, WARP, OPS+/ERA+, positional adjustments, edits for minor league, war, NeL credit, even some contemporary opinion. Oh, and Dan R’s salary estimator made me re-examine folks as well. So once that info is assembled I try and make other changes to metrics when deemed fit, weighting the various measures. My hope by including all this material is to get the most complete picture, a worthy player from all angles. The results of this work tend to favor prime/peak players over career types but that is not 100% tried and true.

1. Bert Blyleven (1st in 1998). That’s a lot of quality pitching going on. Holds up in comparison to the 1970s set of HOM pitchers.

2. Tim Raines (1st in 2008). Not Rickey Henderson, didn’t need to be. His skills played well in the 1980s due to speed being a bigger part of the game.

3. Mark McGwire (3rd in 2007). You’re working pretty hard to place him 3rd in this set but his value doesn’t quite match up. Still easy HOM.

4. Will Clark (2nd in 2006). I’m a little leery of this position since his cohort of 1Bmen is pretty strong for the next 20 years. But his performance shouts that he belongs, so in you go.

5. Lou Whitaker (1st in 2001). Someone else posted a fine description of Sweet Lou. He started off as more of a defender, through the years became a solid hitter while his defense declined but not to terrible levels. Quality pick, glad to have him.

6. Alan Trammell (1st in 2002). A little more peakish than Lou, slightly more likely to be out with injuries. Held his own with the glove.

7. Keith Hernandez (6th in 1996). Whiz with the glove, making plays other 1Bmen didn’t attempt. As a hitter line drives, able to face both righties and lefties. Not huge spikes in production but solid output throughout.

8. Dave Stieb (24th in 2002). Seems to be the top of the borderline 70s-80s pitchers, just a question of where you want to have pitchers fall amongst the position players. Probably underrated his peakish run of the early 80s.

9. Willie Randolph (15th in 2001). Nice long career for a 2nd basemen, someone who did many things well without ever doing that one thing at an other-worldly level. In season durability balance with career longevity. Not as good as Whitaker.

10. Dwight Evans (10th in 1997). His value is spread fairly evenly across the years – he was an excellent fielder with an OK bat, then an excellent bat with an OK glove. Flattens out any peak but allowed him to play forever with value throughout. 1981 was quite a year for him and who knows what an entire season would have brought. Since that year is out of line with the rest it takes a slight regression.

11. Bret Saberhagen (15th in 2008). He wasn’t as good as the pitchers in his cohert, including Stieb, who came along just a few years earlier and/or later but still is a very good player. Was a Tiant fan more I guess.

12. Andre Dawson (46th in 2005). Wasn’t a fan. His peak is far too similar to the HOM outsiders like Reggie Smith and Bobby Bonds.

Players valued into my ranking system are scored and with this grouping came out with the following values (1 means you’re the highest ranked, descending from there.)
1. Blyleven 1.00
2. Raines 0.98
3. McGwire 0.97
4. Clark 0.89
5. Whitaker 0.88
6. Trammell 0.87
7. Hernandez 0.86
8. Stieb 0.85
9. Randolph 0.84
10. Evans 0.80
11. Saberhagen 0.77
12. Dawson 0.75 
   33. Rusty Priske Posted: January 25, 2008 at 04:24 PM (#2675964)
Is the requirement to explain your ballot no longer beign enforced?

I'm not trying to pick on Rob Wood here, I am just saying that if I can vote without comments, I will do so. If I need to post comments, I'm not going to vote.
   34. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: January 25, 2008 at 04:39 PM (#2675977)
Why are you so anti-comments? Is it that painful?
   35. Rusty Priske Posted: January 25, 2008 at 05:09 PM (#2675999)
While I don't like the rule, that isn't the point. I am only asking because I have nothing to say and would have to do a bunch more work that I don't have the time for at this point.

I'm not arguing the rule... just asking if it is still being enforced. If it is, I will quietly step aside.
   36. ronw Posted: January 25, 2008 at 05:19 PM (#2676011)
Rusty:

Just post and tell us to refer to your past ballots.
   37. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: January 25, 2008 at 06:25 PM (#2676076)
I would say that if you're a long-time voter, and your old ballots cover everyone in the election (meaning if you were voting when these guys were on the HoM ballot), minimal comments are ok. But I would like to see a little something, even if it's just what was going through your head as you wrote the names down - is that reasonable?
   38. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: January 25, 2008 at 06:42 PM (#2676087)
Why are you so anti-comments? Is it that painful?


It can be if a voter disagrees strongly with your comments. :-)
   39. Rusty Priske Posted: January 25, 2008 at 07:01 PM (#2676101)
That's reasonable. I will do that shortly. Thanks guys.
   40. Rusty Priske Posted: January 25, 2008 at 07:22 PM (#2676119)
Okay, here is my ballot. There are some changes from my prelim version.

1. Tim Raines

Should have been an easy, first ballot Hall of Famer.

2. Bert Blyleven

Closer to #3 than #1, but still an obvious choice.

3. Mark McGwire

If I'm not going to punish for steroids, I'm DEFINTELY not going to punish for SUSPICION of steroids.

4. Lou Whitaker
5. Andre Dawson
6. Alan Trammell

I flip-flop on whether I like Lou ar Tram better. Either way, they both deserve a spot.

Those are the 'sure things', in my view.

7-10 are guys that I iducted into my PHoM, but I can see the arguments against as well.

7. Dwight Evans
8. Will Clark
9. Keith Hernandez
10. Willie Randolph

Then the last two are guys I don't think deserve enshrinement.

11. Bret Saberhagen

I had him higher in my prelim. I don't know why. It was a momentary lapse.

12. Dave Stieb

I was a big fan when I was younger. I was a big fan of Joe Carter too, but that doesn't mean he should be in the Hall.

(Doing a ballot without George van Haltren on it just seems wrong.)
   41. Mark Donelson Posted: January 26, 2008 at 12:25 AM (#2676313)
This is all pretty consistent with where I had/have these guys on or off my ballots. I did nudge Trammell up a bit, though, under the “I always underrate SS, particularly from the ‘70s and ‘80s” theory. (You might also call it the Dan R Adjustment.)

1. Tim Raines His peak and prime push him just past the somewhat more career-oriented Blyleven for me. Really a no-brainer, as we all keep saying.

2. Bert Blyleven Another easy pick for the top echelon of this grouping. Among his contemporaries (in my peaky system), not quite as good as Niekro, but better than Ryan--which means comfortably in the middle ranks of HOM pitchers.

3. Alan Trammell I originally had him after McGwire, Clark, and Saberhagen, but I’ve become convinced that my basic system underrates SS in general and those from this period in particular. So he ends up here.

4. Mark McGwire Great peak. Duh. My toughest call ended up being whether or not to put him ahead of Clark. I’m still not entirely sure.

5. Will Clark If I went by his Win Shares totals alone, he’d be first on this list, but all the other numbers argue against that. After boulder-size grains of salt, he ends up very close to McGwire.

6. Bret Saberhagen Just a great pitching peak, and enough of it to do really well in my peak-friendly system.

7. Keith Hernandez A lot of this placement relies on his fielding numbers, but they seem pretty reliable to me. He's the first candidate on this list I view as “borderline”--but he’s definitely on the right side of it.

8. Dave Stieb I thought at the time he was the best pitcher of the ‘80s, all in all. Certainly, as a Yankees fan, I “feared” him more than Jack Morris, for whatever that’s worth. His numbers, and the era in which he compiled them, push him just over my pHOM line.

---[my pHOM line at present]

9. Lou Whitaker The peaklessness makes it hard for me to view him as terribly close to Trammell. Still, he’s not unlikely to make my pHOM eventually, and on reflection I think he should come just ahead of Evans.

10. Dwight Evans Not quite the peak I usually look for in corner guys, unless you don’t regress 1981 at all (and even then, it’s just the one superlative year). He’s not far from my pHOM either, though.

11. Andre Dawson I don’t see a lot separating him from guys like Parker and Murphy, or Bonds and Smith (depending on which way you’re oriented). He’s a lot farther from my pHOM line than Evans is, though still within my top 50 in the backlog.

12. Willie Randolph So sad that my favorite player on this list ends up being the only one without even a chance of ever making my pHOM. But his fielding prowess just can’t overcome the lack of offense in my system. So I’m a fan, but I’m not a fan.
   42. jimd Posted: January 26, 2008 at 01:04 AM (#2676329)
I've revised my pitcher bonus relative to my HOM voting. It drops Stieb and Saberhagen each a notch.

Should be no question:
1) B. BLYLEVEN -- (#2 in 1998). Too much good pitching to ignore. Prime 1971-77, 1984-89. Best player in 1973 by WARP. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1973, 1984; WARP adds 1976, 1981, 1985; WS adds 1989. Other star seasons include 1971, 1972, 1974, 1975, 1977, 1986, 1987.

Solidly in:
2) T. RAINES -- (#1 in 2008). Not top 3rd of HOM though. Prime 1981-94. Best player candidate in 1985 and 1987 by WS. 1st-team MLB All-Star (LF) in 1985; WS adds 1986 and 1987. Other star seasons include 1981, 1982, 1983, 1984, 1989, 1992. Honorable mention in 1988, 1990, 1991, 1993, 1994.
3) K. HERNANDEZ -- (#1 in 1996). Prime 1977-87. Best player candidate 1979 by WARP. 1st-team MLB All-Star (1B) in 1979 and 1980, WS adds 1984. Other star seasons include 1977, 1981, 1982, 1983, 1985, 1986, 1987.
4) L. WHITAKER -- (#1 in 2001). Prime 1979-93. 1st-team MLB All-Star (2B) in 1983; WARP adds 1982. Other star seasons include 1981, 1984, 1985, 1986, 1987, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1992, 1993. Honorable Mention in 1979 and 1988.
5) A. TRAMMELL -- (#6 in 2002). Overrated but still an easy HOMer. Expected him to be #1 on 2002 ballot but he just doesn't score that high. Good peak but relatively short prime. Prime 1980-90. Best player by WS in 1987, candidate by WARP. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SS) in 1987, WS adds 1990. Other star seasons include 1980, 1981, 1983, 1984, 1986, and 1988. Honorable mention in 1982.
6) D. STIEB -- (#3 in 1998, #5 in 1999, #2 in 2000, #3 in 2001, #1 in 2002). Best pitcher of the early 1980's. Prime 1980-85. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1982, 1983, 1984, 1985; WARP adds 1981. Other star seasons include 1980, 1988, and 1989.

Marginal:
7) W. CLARK -- (#3 in 2006). High peak candidate, with a career too. ;-) Prime 1987-94. Best player in 1989, candidate in 1988. 1st-team MLB All-Star (1B) in 1988, 1989, 1991. Other star seasons include 1987, 1990, 1992, 1994. Honorable mention in 1995, 1998, 2000.
8) B. SABERHAGEN -- (#3 in 2005, #2 in 2006, #4 in 2007, #3 in 2008). High peak candidate, with a career too. Prime 1985-94. Best player candidate in 1989 by WARP. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1985, 1987, 1989; WS adds 1994. Other star seasons include 1988. Honorable mention in 1991.
9) M. MCGWIRE -- (#5 in 2007). Definitely HOM-worthy; playing time issues prevent full leveraging of his batting rates into All-Star appearances. 1st team appearances is also low but that position is stacked during this era. Prime 1987-2000. Best player candidate in 1998 by WS. 1st-team MLB All-Star (1B) in 1998. Other star seasons include 1987, 1988, 1989, 1990, 1992, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1999. HM in 1991 and 2000.

Not in my PHOM:
10) W. RANDOLPH -- (#15 in 1999, #13 in 2000, #14 in 2001). No peak. Long low prime with a good career. Prime 1976-80, 1984-89. 1st team MLB All-Star (2b) by WS in 1980. Other star seasons include 1976, 1978, 1979, 1985, 1987, 1989. HM in 1977, 1982, 1986.
11) D. EVANS -- (#13 in 1997). Marginal OF'er with a long career, a late prime beginning at age 29. The beaning in 1977 appears to have hurt his development. Prime 81-89. 1st-team MLB All-Star (RF) in 1981; WS adds 1982. Other star seasons include 1984, 1985, 1986, 1987, 1988, 1989.
12) A. DAWSON -- (off ballot in 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005). There's just not enough there. Prime 78-83. 1st-team MLB All-Star (CF) in 1981. Other star seasons include 1979, 1980, 1982, 1983 in CF; also 1987 and 1990 in RF. Honorable mention in 1978 and 1988.
   43. Brent Posted: January 26, 2008 at 03:21 PM (#2676538)
I think I’ve mentioned that I use a system in which I assign points to each season of a player’s career and sum them to get an overall career rating. The point scale is designed to be peak/prime oriented—it gives little credit for average performance and emphasizes all-star type seasons. Babe Ruth receives 706 points; the 25th percentile of the HoM is 240 points; the cut-off for my PHoM is about 135 points. After each player’s name I’ll list his point total.

1. Bert Blyleven (220) – Over 14 seasons (1971-78, 81, 84-87, 89) he averaged 16-13, 2.2 wins above team, 264 IP, 200 SO, 69 BB, 130 DERA+. Other than Blyleven, there are 17 HoM starting pitchers whose careers began after WWII. Of them, I have only six ranked ahead of Rik Aalbert: Seaver, Gibson, Carlton, Perry, Niekro, and Roberts. The other 11, who arguably rank below him, are Bunning, Drysdale, Ford, Jenkins, Koufax, Marichal, Palmer, Ryan, Saberhagen, Stieb, and Sutton.

2. Tim Raines (197) – Trying the same exercise, excluding Raines, there are 19 post-WWII HoM outfielders. Of them, I have seven ranked ahead of Raines: Mays, Aaron, Mantle, Robinson, Jackson, Yastrzemski, and Snider. The other 12 are Ashburn, Clemente, Dawson, Evans, Gwynn, Kaline, Kiner, Minoso, Stargell, B Williams, Winfield, and Wynn.

3. Mark McGwire (188) – Over 11 seasons (1987-90, 92, 95-00) he averaged 140 games (adjusting to 162-gm schedule) with an OPS+ of 172. People forget that during the first half of his career he was regarded as a good fielder and won a Gold Glove award

4. Will Clark (178) – Over 10 seasons (1987-92, 94-95, 98, 2000) he averaged 149 games (162-adj) with an OPS+ of 145; one Gold Glove award at 1B.

5. Lou Whitaker (152) – I was surprised to see him slightly ahead of Trammell, but it’s a case of a long prime trumping a superior peak—Whitaker had 13 seasons with OPS>105 and PA>450, whereas Trammell had 9 seasons with OPS>90 and PA>450.

6. Keith Hernandez (150) – Over 10 seasons (1977, 79-87) he averaged 156 games (162-adj) with an OPS+ of 135; 11 Gold Glove awards at 1B.

7. Alan Trammell (148) – I see him as about the 75th percentile of HoM shortstops—clearly deserving of enshrinement, but not in the same class as Blyleven and Raines.

8. Dave Stieb (146) – Over 9 seasons (1980-85, 88-90) he averaged 15-10, 2.6 wins above team, 239 IP, 126 DERA+.

9. Bret Saberhagen (138) – Made my PHoM but never made my ballot.

10. Dwight Evans (137) – Barely above my in-out line.

- - - - - - - - PHoM line - - - - - - -
11. Willie Randolph (133) – Right now, he’s third in line to eventually make my PHoM.

12. Andre Dawson (118) – HoVG.
   44. dan b Posted: January 26, 2008 at 04:56 PM (#2676551)
Peak voter, prefer WS. Duffy yes, Beckley no.

1. Raines. NHBA #81 of all players. What were the writers thinking?
2. Blyleven. Easily the best pitcher on the list. James has him as the 39th best pitcher.
3. McGwire – One of the problems with the HOF is all of the Max Mercy’s of the BWAA who are there to protect this game by making or breaking the likes of Mark McGwire.
4. Clark - Best 3 and 5 year peaks in this group. A travesty that he was one and done with the BWAA. Looking at the three 1B on this list, the gap from Big Mac to Clark is smaller than the gap from Clark to Hernandez. Deserves a plaque in Cooperstown.
5. Trammell – NHBA SS #9 – belongs in Cooperstown
6. Whitaker – NHBA 2B #13 – The last of the group that I have as clearly above my in/out line.


7. Hernandez – Clark blows him away on peak. On the line – I could go either way.

The next 2 are in PHoM and HoM because the target size of the HoM was inflated by HOF mistakes. There absence from the HOF does not bother me.

8. Stieb – over Rube Marquard
9. Saberhagen – over Jesse Haines

The last 3 are not in PHoM and I would prefer they not have a plaque in Cooperstown:

10. Evans – has the spot we should have given to Ken Singleton (who also would be below my in/out line for Cooperstown), but a better pick than Ross Youngs.
11. Dawson – I prefer Dale Murphy or Dave Parker (see Singleton), but better than Sam Rice.
12. Randolph – has Phil Rizzuto’s spot, and I don’t think he is any better than Johnny Evers (who is also not PHoM).
   45. Jolly Old St. Nick Still Gags in October Posted: January 26, 2008 at 06:13 PM (#2676566)
In order:

I. IN

Tim Raines (2008) 12 points
Mark McGwire (2007) 11 points
Bert Blyleven (1998) 10 points
Alan Trammell (2002) 9 points
Lou Whitaker (2001) 8 points

II. CLOSE, BUT OUT

Dwight Evans (1997) 7 points
Andre Dawson (2005) 6 points

III. HALL OF VERY GOOD

Keith Hernandez (1996) 5 points
Will Clark (2006) 4 points
Willie Randolph (2001) 3 points
Dave Stieb (2002) 2 points
Bret Saberhagen (2008) 1 point
   46. OCF Posted: January 26, 2008 at 08:07 PM (#2676600)
Hi, Andy. Since you don't have a Hall of Merit voting record for us to look back on, could you provide us with some insight into your methods and some justification for ranking the candidates in that order as opposed to some other order? (Not that there's anything unusual about that order.)
   47. EricC Posted: January 26, 2008 at 10:41 PM (#2676663)
Going with minimalist approach this time.

Rank, player, numerical rating, all-time positional rank among MLers, most similar player(s) in value:

1. Mark McGwire +5.34 1B (8) Mize.
2. Tim Raines +5.34 LF (5) Murray, Crawford, R. Jackson.
3. Bert Blyleven +5.34 P (15) Carlton, Glavine, Ph. Niekro, G. Perry, P. Alexander, Seaver.
4. Lou Whitaker +5.33 2B (10) Appling, Carew.
5. Alan Trammell +5.31 SS (7) Appling, Larkin.
6. Will Clark +5.26 1B (19) Heilman.
7. Willie Randolph +5.25 2B (15) Frisch, N. Fox.
8. Dwight Evans +5.24 RF (19) Staub.
9. Andre Dawson +5.20 CF (17) Wheat, Vernon, Perez, McGriff, W. Davis.
10. Keith Hernandez +5.19 1B (27) Medwick, F. Howard, Bo. Bonds, Hodges.
11. Dave Stieb +5.18 P (56) Appier, Saberhagen.
12. Bret Saberhagen +5.16 P (66) Key, L. Jackson.
   48. Jolly Old St. Nick Still Gags in October Posted: January 26, 2008 at 11:20 PM (#2676675)
Hi, Andy. Since you don't have a Hall of Merit voting record for us to look back on, could you provide us with some insight into your methods and some justification for ranking the candidates in that order as opposed to some other order? (Not that there's anything unusual about that order.)

Sure, although it's probably not quite as rigorous as it should be.

I. IN

Tim Raines (2008)
12 points Great all-around offensive threat, probably only second to Henderson as the all-time best leadoff man.

Mark McGwire (2007) 11 points Without the steroids to worry about here, he's the quintessential slugger whose OPS+ alone makes him a no-brainer. I'd rank him below Raines because in spite of his huge batting numbers, he's strictly one dimensional, and I tend to favor multi-dimensional players. As in peak Dimaggio vs peak Williams, etc.

Bert Blyleven (1998) 10 points Long career, lots of innings, great numbers, and even though I'm not in love with some of his intangibles, and I'm still not 100% convinced that his W-L record doesn't weigh against him at least a little bit, I can't see that alone putting him any lower.

Alan Trammell (2002) 9 points
Lou Whitaker (2001) 8 points
I'm extremely biased towards good hitting, good fielding middle infielders with long careers. I could have flipped a coin on these two, and could easily have reversed their order. But they're both my idea of lower end but solid Hall of Merit candidates.

Dwight Evans (1997) 7 points I should probably have bumped him into the "IN" category. Should've looked more carefully at those numbers. Also should've factored in a huge positional advantage for that Fenway sun field with the tricky angles. Yeah, I'm making an adjustment here and putting him above the cutoff line.

II. CLOSE, BUT OUT

Andre Dawson (2005) 6 points. I see him as an NL version of Rice, though a better fielder, with a longer career, but not as good a hitter. Like Rice, he's below my cutoff point but his inclusion wouldn't offend me.

III. HALL OF VERY GOOD

In brief:

Keith Hernandez (1996) 5 points Good overall batting numbers and a great glove, but not enough power for a first baseman, and only had ten seasons with more than 130 games. But would've made it in an earlier era, and even now he wouldn't be the world's worst choice.

Will Clark (2006) 4 points Great talent and rate states, but IMO way too fragile to be a serious candidate.

Willie Randolph (2001) 3 points A poor man's Lou Whitaker, but with the emphasis on the "poor." Good glove and lots of intangibles, but not enough of a bat.

Dave Stieb (2002) 2 points Blyleven minus about 2100 innings. Not enough quantity.

Bret Saberhagen (2008) 1 point If they ever had a HoM for the DL, he'd be a first ballot choice. One of the great "might have beens," and I still love what he did to Whitey's Whiners in 1985. That almost got him above Stieb on my list.
   49. OCF Posted: January 27, 2008 at 04:56 AM (#2676826)
EricC: there are some of your "comparables" that I'm not really buying. I see Alexander and Seaver as being out of Blyleven's league. (And yet you had Blyleven 3rd when more voters have him 1st or 2nd.) On the other side, Jackson (200-162 RA+ equivalent) doesn't seem to be a good comp for Saberhagen (174-111 equivalent). Key (171-117 with less peak) I can see.

It's also clear you're doing some kind of value comparison (and jumbling 1B togther with LF-RF) rather than really getting down to being the same kind of player. This creates some odd mental images, such as Raines/Murray and Hernandez/Howard.

It's Saturday evening, and I count 24 votes. 22 come from long-time HoM voters, and two (pocket8pin and Andy) are new for this election. That's about half of a typical HoM turnout.

End it tomorrow or extend another week? I'm not going to express an opinion on that. Either way, it's entirely Joe's call to make.
   50. Daryn Posted: January 27, 2008 at 05:36 AM (#2676846)
These are in the same order that I had them on the original ballots, where such comparisons can be made.

1. Raines -- 2nd best leadoff hitter narrowly bests 8th best homerun hitter.
2. McGwire -- I like the 162 0PS+ and the dingers.
3. Blyleven -- wins mean more to me than most -- but it is the very long career that puts him strides ahead of the relatively short-service Stieb and Sabes.
4. Evans -- I was surprised how good he was. I like the batter-fielder combo.
5. Dawson -- my type of career player, except for his terrible OBP. If he walked more, he'd top this list.
6. Clark -- exactly not my type of player. Not exceptional at anything, good at most things.
7. Whitaker -- I am willing to admit that his placement over Trammell seems wrong to me but that is how my system rates him. In my defence, he has a higher OPS+, more Runs Created and more hits and runs and rbi too. I certainly don't see the vast difference that DanR sees.
8. Trammell -- almost as good as Whitaker.
9. Randolph -- well behind the other two middle infielders, well ahead of the bottom two pitchers
10. Hernandez -- Will Clark-lite
11. Stieb -- my all-time favourite player; he was not a HoMer. If peaks were measured in single games however, he'd be close to the top of the list.
12. Saberhagen -- terrible HoM selection. I don't even begin to see his merit. I'm not sure what separates him from Dizzy Dean. I guess if you like non-consecutive short peak pitchers, he's your man. I prefer Hughie Jennings, and if you know me, that's saying something.
   51. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: January 27, 2008 at 06:25 AM (#2676875)
Daryn--Whitaker was obviously a better hitter than Trammell. If they had played the same position, Whitaker would have been a far superior player. But they didn't. It is much, much, much tougher to find a decent hitter to play shortstop than it is to play second base--my research shows that the gap between the two positions in the 1980's was worth over 20 points of OPS+. How are you accounting for positional value in your rankings? Judging by the fact that you have all the right-spectrum players above all the left-spectrum ones on your ballot (except Hernandez, whose value is in his defense), it looks like you're voting nearly on raw hitting alone. That's your prerogative, I suppose, but I sure wouldn't want someone like that GM'ing my team!
   52. Howie Menckel Posted: January 27, 2008 at 07:15 AM (#2676897)
I don't mind extending the vote. It would help tell us:

- who finishes 1 vs 2
- who finishes 5 vs 6
- who finishes 7 vs 8, and maybe 9 vs 10 gets into it
- who vinishes 11 vs 12, for sure

These answers do mean less this 'year,' admittedly.

Once we get our sea legs in this type of voting, I imagine that the schedule will need to have a clear and enforced deadline.
   53. andrew siegel Posted: January 27, 2008 at 09:34 AM (#2676917)
I just typed and lost a long ballot. So here's a short one instead.

(1) Blyleven--Somewhere around the 30th pitcher and 115th player of All-Time.
(2) Raines--Great prime but so-so bulk seasons push him about 40-50 spots lower than I would have guessed. He's about 115 or 120 All-Time.
(3) McGwire--The top 15 or so 1b have similar peak value and sort out primarilly based on career value. His lack of durability and early retirement have him towards the bottom of that group.
(4) Trammell--Not durable enough or a big enough bat to make the top half of the HoM, but still somewhere in the top 150 All-Time.
(5) Will Clark--Great peak and strong enough career to clear the HoM bar without a sweat.
(6) Hernandez--Similar to Clark, more glove, less bat. His status depends on treating stellar 1B defense as having more than trivial value.
(7) Whitaker--Didn't play enough per season or combine his offensive and defensive peak--as a result a quintessential career candidate.
(8) Stieb--Bonus points for dominating his cohort and stringing together his peak seasons.
(9) Evans--Made my PHOM without ever making my ballot. Also failed to combine offensive and defensive peak. Needs DH adjustment to jump Dawson.
(10) Dawson--Very bottom of the HoM in my mind--nice peak, solid career beyond those seasons. About the upper limit of how good a player can be without ever walking.
(11) Saberhagen--Similar to the bottom dozen HoM hurlers, but loses points for inconsistency and for the longevity of others his age. Not quite PHoM yet.
(12) Randolph--Not a bad player, but unlikely ever to make my PHoM. Nice career length, but really no better a player during his meaningul seasons than Johnny Evers, Bobby Avilla, or George Scales.
   54. Esteban Rivera Posted: January 27, 2008 at 09:19 PM (#2677110)
Here goes. The top four and bottom three were the easiest for me to rank. After that, it was like splitting hairs for the middle spots.

1) Bert Blyleven
2) Tim Raines
3) Mark McGwire
4) Alan Trammell
5) Andre Dawson
6) Lou Whitaker
7) Keith Hernandez
8) Will Clark
9) Dwight Evans
10) Willie Randolph
11) Dave Stieb
12) Bret Saberhagen
   55. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: January 27, 2008 at 09:49 PM (#2677117)
End it tomorrow or extend another week? I'm not going to express an opinion on that. Either way, it's entirely Joe's call to make.


How about this: we'll keep it going until next Sunday, unless Joe wants it to end at 8 tonight. If that's the case and he notifies us after that deadline, I'll only count all of the ballots before 8 tonight then.
   56. Rafael Bellylard: Built like a Panda. Posted: January 27, 2008 at 11:37 PM (#2677171)
The thread didn't get posted until Wednesday. Shouldn't we extend until Tuesday?
   57. Sean Gilman Posted: January 28, 2008 at 12:06 AM (#2677179)
There's no reason we can't start the discussion for the next one while leaving balloting for this one open for a couple days. Wednesday was pretty late in the week to be posting a ballot thread.

A number of people posted prelims in the discussion thread, have they all voted? If so, we're unlikely to pick up that many more voters by staying open.

I'm pretty ambivalent.
   58. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: January 28, 2008 at 12:20 AM (#2677189)
1. Tim Raines (1.2320 Sam Crawford, Carl Yastrzemski)
2. Alan Trammell (1.3304, Barry Larkin, Ozzie Smith) - he really was this good, I still would have rather have had Raines, so I'm overruling the system.
3. Bert Blyleven (1.404, Kid Nichols, Gaylord Perry)
4. Lou Whitaker (1.0566 Bobby Wallace, Jesse Burkett)
5. Dwight Evans (1.0175, Al Simmons, Rafael Palmeiro)
6. Mark McGwire (1.0083, Eddie Murray, Darrell Evans)
7. Andre Dawson (.9101, Harmon Killebrew, Will Clark)
8. Bret Saberhagen (1.012, Red Faber, Tommy John)
9. Dave Stieb (.908, Billy Pierce, Don Newcombe)
10. Will Clark (.9067, Andre Dawson, Jim Edmonds (through 2005))
11. Willie Randolph (.8793, Tommy Leach, Reggie Smith)
12. Keith Hernandez (.8596, Jim Thome (through 2005), Dave Bancroft)

I used DanR's system for the position players, but I zero out sub-zero seasons, and convert the raw WARP2 to my version of Pennants Added. I've listed the score, plus the player above and below, to give an idea of where he's at.

I used my own system for the pitchers, and slotted them in where I felt appropriate, considering the systems are not calibrated the same.
   59. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: January 28, 2008 at 12:22 AM (#2677192)
I count 27 ballots. It's Crissy's birthday today, so I don't have a lot of time to go through and see if the others who posted prelims also posted ballots.

What do we think? Leave it open til Super Bowl Sunday or close it up tonight?
   60. Tiboreau Posted: January 28, 2008 at 12:35 AM (#2677199)
1. sp Bert Blyleven (2)—There isn’t a whole lot one can say about Blyleven that hasn’t already been said either in print or online. A nice career with an underrated peak, in a small hall I can understand some considering him a borderline candidate, but not with something the size of baseball’s Hall of Fame. (11th, 61.9%)
2. ss Alan Trammell (3)—Like the majority of players on this ballot, Trammell was an underrated ballplayer; like the player above and the player below him, he had it all: solid prime & career and a very good peak. Sadly, I think talented ballplayers at defensive positions will continue to be underrated until we have a definable, and widely accepted, grasp on the value of defense. (7th, 18.2%)
3. lf Tim Raines (1)—I think that his candidacy isn’t about electing a “leadoff hitter,” but about recognizing the value of the variety of aspects that contribute to winning besides hitting for average and for power. When you add the value of his defense, patience, excellent baserunning & decent power to a solid batting average you see 7 all-star seasons, including at least 2 MVP-caliber years, as well as a long and venerable career. (1st, 24.3%)
4. 1b Mark McGwire (4)—I’ve omitted McGwire from my BTF HoF ballot the past 2 years for a couple of reasons: Win Shares & steroids. In the past, I’ve primarily been a WS voter, and McGwire compares fairly well to Will Clark according to WS. Will the Thrill has always been, to me, a borderline candidate: a very nice peak in the late ‘80s/early ‘90s, but a short career. Of course, McGwire was a better slugger (but worse defensively) and lost a lot of potential value due to injuries. Throw steroids into the mix and he’d just miss my HoF ballot. Adding BP and DanR’s WARP numbers, however, puts both players careers into better perspective. WS underrates McGwire’s peak a bit, and overrates Clark’s; the former player is much closer to the players above him while latter is much closer in value to the players below than they are too each other. (2nd, 23.6%)
5. 1b Will Clark (5)—See comment on Mark McGwire. (NE)
6. sp Bret Saberhagen (7)—Very similar to Stieb: excellent peak early in their career followed by several mediocre seasons with a couple all-star years thrown in. Both gentlemen even tried to make a comeback a few years after originally retiring: Stieb in ’98, Saberhagen in ’01. The only difference between the two is that Stieb packed his peak into 5 consecutive years while Saberhagen alternated between good & bad. (NE)
7. sp Dave Stieb (6)—One of my worries is that HoF voters will underrate modern pitchers, particularly post-‘70s. You even saw it a bit in the HoM voting. Now, both Stieb and Saberhagen are borderline candidates at best, but like Whitaker & Clark they deserved better than falling off the ballot after their 1st year of eligibility. (NE)
8. 2b Lou Whitaker (8)—Like his double play partner, Whitaker had an excellent career with a long, solid prime. As a peak voter, however, Whitaker falls solidly short of his long-time teammate. He is still a very underrated player who should still be eligible for the Hall of Fame. (NE)
9. rf Dwight Evans (11)—Along with Tim Raines, Dewey has the best career value of among the hitting positions eligible for this ballot. Unfortunately, while he had long & consistent prime, Evans only had 1 peak year: the abbreviated ’81 season. (NE)
10. 1b Keith Hernandez (9)—Honestly, Hernandez’s candidacy surprised me; according to WS, Keith had a short career with a nice but unimpressive peak. On the other hand, BP’s WARP absolutely loves him, particularly his peak. The difference, of course, is in his superb defense; however, he’s still a 1b, and defense and a merely solid peak isn’t enough to make up for position and merely decent career value. (NE)
11. 2b Willie Randolph (10)—The poor man’s Lou Whitaker: he had a nice career, but it’s shorter than Whitaker’s; he had a nice prime, but certainly not as good as Whitaker; and Randolph’s peak, or lack thereof, just isn’t good enough to get him beyond the backlog, IMO. (NE)
12. rf/cf Andre Dawson (12)—He received the highest BBWAA support of the players on this ballot; however, he is the only ballplayer among the dozen we’re voting on that I’d venture to call overrated. In addition to a fairly long career, Hawk had a nice peak in the late ‘70s/early ‘80s, but injuries forced him to switch cf to rf where his bat was less valuable. After ’83 Dawson had only 2 seasons over 7 WARP and only 3 others over 5 WARP. (7th, 65.9%)
   61. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: January 28, 2008 at 12:37 AM (#2677202)
What do we think? Leave it open til Super Bowl Sunday or close it up tonight?


Let's make it next Saturday instead, Joe, since I forgot about the Superbowl.
   62. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: January 28, 2008 at 12:38 AM (#2677203)
That works. Next Saturday it is. Why don't you set a time on Saturday that works for you John . . .
   63. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: January 28, 2008 at 12:46 AM (#2677211)
8 PM EDT is fine by me, Joe.
   64. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: January 28, 2008 at 12:50 AM (#2677212)
OK, 8 PM EST (we aren't on daylight savings now, just to be clear), Ground Hog Day, Saturday, February 2 will be the deadline.

"Once we get our sea legs in this type of voting, I imagine that the schedule will need to have a clear and enforced deadline."


Agreed, shouldn't be an issue going forward.
   65. mulder & scully Posted: January 28, 2008 at 02:33 AM (#2677276)
Great on the extension. I am in the middle of getting figures ready for this year's tax return.
   66. Paul Wendt Posted: January 28, 2008 at 03:30 AM (#2677302)
I think it would be a good idea to put the deadline in the preface.
   67. DL from MN Posted: January 28, 2008 at 03:42 PM (#2677529)
I'm not a big fan of Andy's ballot, even with the comments. The designation of half his ballot as "out" makes me a little hesitant unless he can tell what modern players he would put "in" instead. If he supports other modern candidates (Rick Reuschel, Lee Smith, Reggie Smith, Tommy John, Kirby Puckett, etc) over those listed then I can deal with that. My inference is that he's either underestimating the number of slots available or he's not being fair to all eras. That said, all he's required to do is provide the order with justification and he's accomplished that.
   68. sunnyday2 Posted: January 28, 2008 at 07:06 PM (#2677728)
DL,

I don't see how we can ask Andy to comment on players not on this ballot. And I might be wrong but I think several voters designated players on this ballot as "out" of their HoM or HoF or PHoM or whatever. I thught it was a fine ballot.
   69. sunnyday2 Posted: January 28, 2008 at 07:10 PM (#2677730)
PS. I thought it was a fine ballot especially compared to those with no comments. Obviously, now that we are accepting ballots with no comments again, my ballot will be the only one in 110 years of the HoM that was ever (ever) (and did I mention: only) (only ever) to be thrown out for no comments. That's about one such ballot out of, oh, you tell me, 50? 100?

That calls for a comment. How about a big WHATEVER. (Same number of letters as the other word I was thinking of!)
   70. Jolly Old St. Nick Still Gags in October Posted: January 28, 2008 at 07:24 PM (#2677744)
I'm not a big fan of Andy's ballot, even with the comments. The designation of half his ballot as "out" makes me a little hesitant unless he can tell what modern players he would put "in" instead. If he supports other modern candidates (Rick Reuschel, Lee Smith, Reggie Smith, Tommy John, Kirby Puckett, etc) over those listed then I can deal with that. My inference is that he's either underestimating the number of slots available or he's not being fair to all eras. That said, all he's required to do is provide the order with justification and he's accomplished that.

Sorry, I thought I was just following the procedure I saw others here using, in listing the twelve players named in Joe's introduction in order of preference, and later adding comments following OCF's request.

I guess the difference was that I also added those "IN," "CLOSE, BUT OUT," and "HALL OF VERY GOOD" designations, and if that was out of line, I apologize. But those were just to indicate my personal dividing line, and it doesn't affect the counting of the points.
   71. DL from MN Posted: January 28, 2008 at 07:43 PM (#2677766)
I guess I just want to know is if your personal dividing line is based on a Hall the same size as the current Hall of Fame or if your personal hall is a "small hall". We came up with the "IN" determination on these players based on the size of the hall in Cooperstown.
   72. mulder & scully Posted: January 29, 2008 at 09:55 AM (#2678281)
Recap my "system:" Consider prime / peak / per "year" / career in that order. Bonus for "all-star" and "gold gloves" by WS and DanR WARP.

1. Tim Raines (1st WS)(2nd WARP): A terrific player. Genuine MVP level for 5 years with several more all-star level seasons. Great baserunner. Great hitter.
4.5 All-Stars WS / 6 WARP

2. Bert Blyleven: Why can't he get elected so the same articles won't be rehashed every winter? PLEASE! To recap: Very durable. High level for a very long time. Produced in the post-season. Pitched better than the W/L record indicates.

3. Alan Trammell (7th/1st): Skies to first in WARP b/c of the putrescence that was SS for most of his career. Definitely qualified for the HoF. 3rd best SS after Yount and Ripken is nothing to be sorry about. If I thought about the ballot anymore, Trammell might be in 3rd. I did think about the ballot more. He is a top 12-15 shortstop. McGwire and Clark are just a bit lower at first.
2.5 WS and 2 WARP

4. Mark McGwire (3rd/3rd): I haven't made up my mind about steroids yet. A monster hitter when he could play. Could field for awhile.
3.5 WS and 4 WARP

5. Will Clark (2nd/4th tie): Tough choosing between Clark and Trammell here. Clark had the great peak in the late 80s. I don't think MSM realizes how difficult it was to score runs in the late 80s.
3.5 WS and 4 WARP

6. Lou Whitaker (8th/7th): Moves up because Lou is better all-time compared to Hernandez with first basemen. Great hitter for a second baseman.
3 WS and 7 WARP

7. Dwight Evans (4th tie/6th): Did all the little things that very few noticed while he played. Looking at Baseball Analyst today, he is Jim Rice with gold glove defense and 2.5 to 3 more years.
3 WS and 3 WARP

8. Keith Hernandez (4th tie/4th tie): The standards at first base are tougher than at any other position. Would love to know just how valuable his defense was.
6 WS and 6 WARP

9. Bret Saberhagen: Bottom of PHOM. Great for several "odd" years. Just could not stay healthy.

10. Dave Stieb: Bottom of PHOM. Great run from 82-85, plus other all-star years. With a little different luck (no-hitters) imagine how much more famous he'd be.

11. Andre Dawson (6th/8th) (NOT PHOM) Blech. Take a walk.
2.5 WS and 3 WARP

12. Willie Randolph (9th/9th) (NOT PHOM) Nope. Couldn't stay healthy and not a good enough hitter.
2.5 WS and 4 WARP
   73. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: January 29, 2008 at 01:23 PM (#2678295)
mulder & scully: per DRA, Hernandez really was a +200 guy--*before* factoring scooping!
   74. sunnyday2 Posted: January 29, 2008 at 02:06 PM (#2678300)
I don't see how Andy's comments are substantially different than this.

(10) Dawson--Very bottom of the HoM in my mind
(11) Saberhagen--Not quite PHoM yet.
(12) Randolph--Not a bad player, but unlikely ever to make my PHoM.


Or this.

9. Bret Saberhagen: Bottom of PHOM.
10. Dave Stieb: Bottom of PHOM.
11. Andre Dawson (6th/8th) (NOT PHOM)
12. Willie Randolph (9th/9th) (NOT PHOM) Nope.
   75. DL from MN Posted: January 29, 2008 at 05:34 PM (#2678454)
The difference is I know those guys have PHoM. I'm not sure who Andy likes better.
   76. Jolly Old St. Nick Still Gags in October Posted: January 29, 2008 at 05:47 PM (#2678485)
I guess I just want to know is if your personal dividing line is based on a Hall the same size as the current Hall of Fame or if your personal hall is a "small hall". We came up with the "IN" determination on these players based on the size of the hall in Cooperstown.

The truth is that I've never really stopped to think about whether I'm a "small" or "big" Hall guy. But I think you might infer from the fact that I selected five players to be above my cutoff point that I'm not reserving my personal Hall for nothing but Inner Circle players. If I were doing that I would've stuck with Raines and McGwire.

And if that seems evasive, I can add that I'm entirely comfortable with the size of today's Hall. Obviously if I were given dictatorial powers I'd kick the Lindstroms out and let the Raineses and the Trammells in, but I don't think my final roster would wind up much bigger or smaller than what we have in Cooperstown now.
   77. mulder & scully Posted: January 29, 2008 at 06:17 PM (#2678533)
Just to make some more comments...

Dave Stieb was the best starting pitcher in the AL by WS every year from 1982 through 1985. Plus all-star years in 1988 and 1990. Unfortunately, the career was short and there are questions because the disparity between win loss record and surrounding statistics. Also, from a WPA view, there are questions about his in game performance. I don't like WPA, but there are some analysts who like it.

Bret Saberhagen was great in several years, Cy Young quality in 1985, 1987, 1989, 1994 (really needs to be adjusted for the strike - 20 - 6 with a 11 to 1 K/BB). Plus All-Star level in 1991, 1998. That he could not stay healthy keeps him from being higher.

Andre Dawson: Great hitting and fielding peak from 1980 to 1983. Not enough hitting after that. Only 3 more years over 130 OPS+ and none over 137. Especially as a right fielder in the second half of his career, he didn't perform at a HOM level. Similar to Ernie Banks, but CF is easier than SS and the peak was shorter.

Willie Randolph: Definite HOVG. Very good fielder, very good on base. Not enough in-season durability, not enough power. I don't think his peak and prime meet HOM standards at second base.
   78. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: January 29, 2008 at 06:24 PM (#2678548)
Ummm you don't have to be Ernie Banks to make the HoM, mulder & scully. That's setting the bar a bit high.
   79. mulder & scully Posted: January 29, 2008 at 07:44 PM (#2678657)
Don't worry, Banks is not my HoM standard. I was trying to think of career similar to Dawson's: defensive position as a very good hitter, then poorer hitter at an easier defensive position. Banks' career was the first off the top of my head. Started out at a defensive position with very good hitting, then shifting to a less important defensive position and stopped hitting as well as before. Dawson played a less important defensive position to start and his hitting peak wasn't as long. HoM outfielders have higher standards.
   80. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: January 29, 2008 at 08:45 PM (#2678760)
Obviously, now that we are accepting ballots with no comments again, my ballot will be the only one in 110 years of the HoM that was ever (ever) (and did I mention: only) (only ever) to be thrown out for no comments. That's about one such ballot out of, oh, you tell me, 50? 100?


1) Since the responsibility to enforce existing rules was thrust upon me, I had no choice in the matter, Marc. From the time my enforcement of this rule came into effect, nobody submitted a ballot without comments except you.

2) You had ample warning from me, but decided not to do anything about it (despite a few e-mails from me about it). Therefore, I have to think you're enjoying being the matyr here. ;-)
   81. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: January 29, 2008 at 08:50 PM (#2678764)
As for Andy's ballot, it's fine by me. Unless Joe weighs in again, this should be the end of the discussion.

I will say this: any ballot without some type of comments will not be counted by me. Therefore, Esteban needs to cut-and-paste some comments onto this thread. Yes, it's silly since he has been voting since 1898, but if we're all supposed to submit comments, then we have to do so.
   82. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: January 29, 2008 at 08:58 PM (#2678778)
The same goes for Rob Wood, too, BTW.
   83. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: January 30, 2008 at 12:12 AM (#2679215)
John, I believe my post #37 covers Esteban and Rob . . .
   84. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: January 30, 2008 at 12:30 AM (#2679247)
John, I believe my post #37 covers Esteban and Rob . . .


Right, Joe, so you want something a little bit more than what they have, correct?
   85. Rob_Wood Posted: January 30, 2008 at 02:52 AM (#2679383)
Final ranking largely based upon a career value perspective (with comments):

1. Bert Blyleven - woefully underrated; with decent support would easily have 300 wins and HOF
2. Mark McGwire - great hitter, great peak, enuf career to land 2nd here
3. Tim Raines - around Tony Gwynn in career value, close but clearly behind McGwire
4. Lou Whitaker - good defensive & very good offensive 2Bman, long career
5. Alan Trammell - just behind Whitaker, slightly shorter career
6. Dwight Evans - good defensive RFer, better than Rice for what that is worth
7. Will Clark - too short of career to be higher, great for awhile
8. Bret Saberhagen - several really good seasons, but that is about it
9. Willie Randolph - very good 2Bman, especially pivot on the double play
10. Andre Dawson - had a long career, painfully low OBP
11. Keith Hernandez - could be higher than Dawson, but not a great career
12. Dave Stieb - way at the bottom of the list, ERA far overvalues his contributions
   86. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: January 30, 2008 at 04:12 AM (#2679449)
Thanks, Rob. I truly appreciate it.
   87. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: January 30, 2008 at 02:31 PM (#2679682)
Yes, that's correct John, and thanks Rob.
   88. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: January 30, 2008 at 02:34 PM (#2679685)
Actually, I think Esteban is probably fine, based on what I said, right? He voted after my comment, which makes me think he must have read it.

He's a voter whose ballots cover the elections, and "minimal comments are ok. But I would like to see a little something, even if it's just what was going through your head as you wrote the names down . . ."
   89. Esteban Rivera Posted: January 30, 2008 at 03:18 PM (#2679716)
I'll go ahead and post a bit more of a thought process explanation. First the top four.

For me, the top two candidates were Blyleven and Raines. Both have similar profiles in terms of career. In the end, even though I view Raines as having a higher peak, his lengthy work as a part-timer counterbalances that and gives the top spot to Blyleven. McGwire's peak performance is very high and moves him ahead of Trammell, who is ahead of everyone else.

The middle four were tougher. They each have arguments against. Ultimately, for me, Dawson's peak in CF (and overall career) and Whitaker's performance put them ahead of the two 1B. As I had stated when Whitaker first was eligible, I think he is somewhat overrated for being so bad against lefties that he was benched, making his numbers look better than if he were merely bad and batted against them. I understand that this maximized his value but it is something that I do hold against him in these types of all-time analysis. Between Hernandez and Clark, while Clark had the higher peak, Hernandez is at a good steady level offensively and in a whole other world defensively. Years of watching Mark Grace and Shawon Dunston together gave me a higher appreciation for what a great defensive first baseman can do for his team and, also, his value. Coupled with Clark's missed time, this hair splits in Hernandez's favor.

The bottom four were comprised of those players I never gave a ballot spot to (I think Evans was the closest to make my ballot). Of these players, Evans is the best for me, followed by Randolph. As for the pitcher, I pretty much mentioned my pitcher preferences in the election results thread when Stieb was elected. Of the two. I'll give the edge to Stieb.

I think that sums it up for me.
   90. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: January 30, 2008 at 03:49 PM (#2679745)
Perfect, Esteban! I appreciate you helping us out here.

He's a voter whose ballots cover the elections, and "minimal comments are ok. But I would like to see a little something, even if it's just what was going through your head as you wrote the names down . . ."


Personally, as long as a voter would respond to a reasonable request to explain their ballot if asked to, I don't think it's necessary that we need to explain our ballots every time.

But a rule is a rule, so... :-)
   91. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: January 31, 2008 at 11:49 PM (#2681235)
I agree John. I was just trying to leave it open a bit in case Esteban didn't look back at the thread. I assumed he wouldn't have an issue responding otherwise.
   92. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: February 01, 2008 at 09:36 PM (#2681829)
Understood, Joe.
   93. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: February 01, 2008 at 10:40 PM (#2681886)
Ranking uses Dan R's system, with all its associated caveats. Any changes from the system ranking are explained below.

1. Alan Trammell, $250M--Not Cal
2. Tim Raines $230M-- What a peak. Not Rickey. Bumped over Blyleven for reasons listed below.
3. Blyleven, $242M-- I'm a firm believer in contemporary assessment, and if the contemporaries thought Blyleven wasn't HoF material, but the #'s say he's a no-brainer, I go 70-30 numbers-opinion. that places him below Raines and Trammell IMO.
4. McGwire, $188M--Holding my nose.
5. Whitaker, $183M--should be dinged for his lack of peak in my system but, hard to justify ranking him any lower
6. Hernandez, $156M --Dan's system misses the boat on Mex's defense. The DRA #'s don't even include scoopability. Hernandez played 1B in a way so different than modern players, even good defenders like Pujols, that it blows the mind.
7. DwEvans, $175M--alas, a strike year peak.
8. Clark, $162M--Peaky. Delicious.
9. Dawson, $156M--Yes, he's a strike year peak. But any reasonable projection out of his 1981, combined with his other early 80's seasons, make him a strong candidate. I love that Dawson is a peak guy, when everyone thought he'd be a career candidate.
10. Saberhagen, $161M--Non consecutive peak make 'zop frowny face.
11. Randolph, $151M--Deep 2B era, no peak.
12. Stieb, $151M--his career is a metaphorical no hits in 8 2/3rds innings. The last out counts too.
   94. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: February 01, 2008 at 10:42 PM (#2681889)
####, posted that in the wrong thread.
   95. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: February 01, 2008 at 10:43 PM (#2681891)
####, no i didnt. oh well. I go now.
   96. Willie Mays Hayes Posted: February 01, 2008 at 11:17 PM (#2681920)
1. Bert Blyleven - Criminally underrated - clearly a HOF'er. Everyone here knows about the run and defensive support stuff, so I won't rehash.
2. Alan Trammell - Blows my mind that the BBWAA haven't come around on him. Great hitter vs. the SS of his time, solid glove.
3. Tim Raines - He wasn't Rickey, and maybe that's all that kept his support so low. Still a fine player, and so much more valuable than Rice or Dawson. Got on base and set the tone for the lineup, played a fine outfield.
4. Mark McGwire - Hit, walked, and hit some more. No real defense value, and probably negative baserunning value, but he had too much value at the plate to be ranked any lower.
5. Lou Whitaker - Wish I could justify him 3rd to have him next to Trammell. Another travesty - the man played as good a seocnd base as there was between Grich and Alomar.
6. Dave Steib - Infinitely better than Jack Morris. I try to explain this to Canadian friends and they don't hear it. If he threw a no-hitter or two instead of the one-hitters, he might get more love.
7. Bret Saberhagen - Right there with Steib. Every other year was fantastic - does get dinged for the lack of consecutive peak, but in his good years, was as good as it got.
8. Will Clark - Uber peaky, not much more to say.
9. Willie Randolph - Not far from Whitaker - great defense, got on base - gave you an advantage at second base over most of the league.
10. Dewey Evans - I like Dewey, but this is the only spot I could fit him in. Outfield defense is nice, but not nearly as nice as defense at second or short. A better hitter than Jim Rice.
11. Keith Hernandez - A defensive whiz at first base. Hit enough to provide value there too. If he truly is at 200 DRA, maybe he moves above Clark, but I haven't come quite around to that notion yet.




12. Andre Dawson - I don't support Dawson at all. He made an out nearly 70% of the time he came to the plate. Ozzie Smith might have a case with that on his resume. Dawson does not.
   97. djrelays Posted: February 02, 2008 at 08:22 PM (#2682325)
90. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: January 30, 2008 at 09:49 AM (#2679745)
"Perfect, Esteban! I appreciate you helping us out here.

He's a voter whose ballots cover the elections, and "minimal comments are ok. But I would like to see a little something, even if it's just what was going through your head as you wrote the names down . . ."

Personally, as long as a voter would respond to a reasonable request to explain their ballot if asked to, I don't think it's necessary that we need to explain our ballots every time."

---
I think the goal of this exercise is to present a meaningful list of candidates to the HoF voters, while hoping to have an influence on those voters. I suspect few voters have consulted this site, but anything you can do to bring some of them over here would be terrifically meaningful.

One key is to keep things as simple as possible. That means this thread should have rationales for the selections on this thread, not with multiple references to other threads. Sending people hither and yon only serves to confuse the issues and discourage people.

Voters drawn to this thread for the first time because they'd heard of an alternate set of modern selections will give it a good read, but how far will they go? I'd guess that they'd read this voting thread and possibly the individual player threads. But they might give up well before going through all the yearly discussion or ballot threads where much of the HoM voters' philosphy comes out.

Anyway, all the best. For hot stove season, this makes better reading than discussions of how the signing of Pedro Feliz will help the Phillies overcome the Mets and Santana this season!
   98. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: February 03, 2008 at 12:26 AM (#2682420)
As always, thank you for your input, Dave.
   99. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: February 03, 2008 at 12:28 AM (#2682423)
The election will end tonight at 8 PM. Unless if some stragglers decide to post a ballot in the remaing hour-and-a-half, I will post the results right away. If not, they will be posted at 10.
   100. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: February 03, 2008 at 01:50 AM (#2682477)
Even if you just give me 12 candidates, I'll still put it off until the last minute. Looking back at my ballots, the candidates break down into 4 groups, and I don't see any compelling reason to move any between the groups.

I: Elect-me spots

1. Bert Blyleven (#1 1998) You can argue he had a 15-year prime, which is rare among pitchers. He wasn't the best pitcher of his era, but he's in the top 5, and clearly better than some guys who've been inducted.
2. Tim Raines (#1 2008) Close to Blyleven, but ultimately had more stat-padding years than Bert. His peak is outstanding, but he isn't quite as glaring an omission in my eye. I will say I was more ticked off about his Hall of Fame vote totals this year.
3. Mark McGwire (#3 2007) If I were voting in the HoF, I'd take away something for steroids and put him below the double-play combo. But by HoM standards, he comes out on top. His peak was amazingly good, his prime very strong, and his career value is in the ballpark with Tram and Lou.
4. Alan Trammell (#2 2002) Trammell and Whitaker are very close. To me, Trammell gets the edge, mostly because of his position. I don't totally agree with DanR's methods, but the comparison between these two is telling.
5. Lou Whitaker (#2 2001) His not being on the HoF ballot is a complete joke. A very good player for almost 20 years, doesn't have a great peak, but compiled a lot of value, when he played.

II: Mid-ballot, behind a few PHoMers

6. Will Clark (#5 2006) Truly overlooked, with an outstanding peak, and contributed throughout his career. Ahead of Hernandez because he played in a tougher era for 1B, and had more of his value in his bat.
7. Keith Hernandez (#6 1996) Both Clark and Hernandez were behind 4 PHoMers, of course, they weren't the same guys. By WS, he has more of an advantage over his fellow 1B than Clark, but Clark was competing against a tougher group. I generally accept the value of his fielding, but there's no arguing that fielding is harder to measure, and that we are not as sure of the true value of 1B defense. That hurts Keith in the head-to-head comparison with Clark. I do find the two of them very close to each other.

III: Bottom of the ballot, behind most of my PHoMers

8. Dave Stieb (#14 1998, #15 1999, #12 2000-2002) Ahead of Saberhagen because of more consistency, and therefore a stronger prime. Probably the best AL pitcher of the early 80s (then again, he wasn't competing with Clemens).
9. Dwight Evans (#12 1997) Not as big a fan of him as most voters seemed to be. Compiled a lot of his value as a very good-not-great player. Clearly better than Rice or Lynn, but very close to my in-out line. I know he has the big peak year in 1981, but it was only 1 year.
10. Bret Saberhagen (#15 2005, #16 2006, #17 2007, #14 2008) When he was good, he was great, when he wasn't, he was hurt. WARP likes him a lot. I had him just ahead of Dizzy Dean as a peak pitching candidate.
11. Willie Randolph (#16 1998, #17 1997, #15 2000, #13 2001) Quoting my 2001 ballot - Sunnyday may hit me for this, but when I compared him to Whitaker this year, it actually helped him a bit. Yes, Whitaker is a better candidate, but not by as much as I expected. Randolph was a bit better defender and baserunner, his OPS is more OBP weighted (though still less impressive overall). Whitaker does better by Win Shares and has somewhat more of a peak. WARP1 has them basically equal, and I don't trust WARP3's adjustment that gives a big edge to Whitaker. Whitaker is better, but it's not a blowout in my eyes.

I'm not totally sure we got this right, but if he's not in, he's very close.

IV: Not on ballot or in my PHoM

12. Andre Dawson (#18 2002, #17 2003, #18 2004-2005, #18B 2006, #19B 2007-2008) Not too far off, but between the low OBP and the stat-padding years, I can't quite support him. His peak is impressive as a CF, but it isn't outstanding at this level, and the years around that just aren't good enough.
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