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Hall of Merit
— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best

Sunday, March 09, 2008

Ballot Thread: Hall of Merit Players Not in the Hall of Fame: Group 4 (NA, NeL and Banned Players)

The candidates In alphabetical order:

Ross Barnes (1898)
John Beckwith (1957)
Joe Jackson (1927)
Grant Johnson (1925)
Dick Lundy (2008)
Cal McVey (1912)
Dobie Moore (1991)
Alejandro Oms (2006)
Dickey Pearce (1931)
Lip Pike (1940)
Pete Rose (1993)
Quincy Trouppe (1995)

The election ends on March 24 at 8 PM.

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 09, 2008 at 10:31 PM | 47 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 09, 2008 at 11:12 PM (#2709386)
1) Pete Rose (n/e): Can't deny that the crud has the most value (and that's value, not counting stats) among the candidates here. I don't have to like it, though.

2) Home Run Johnson-SS/2B (n/e): Frank Baker-like power, great batting eye (plus patience), fine defense and lengthy career pushes him up here. Great, great player. Batted cleanup behind Pop Lloyd in 1913.

3) Ross Barnes-2B/SS (n/e): Dominating.

4) Cal McVey-C/1B/RF/3B (n/e): Never had a bad season during his career.

5) John Beckwith-3B/SS/C (n/e): Marvelous infielder from the twenties. Appears to have been more "hot corner" guy than shortstop, but that doesn't really hurt him since third base was still mighty tough as a position. Whatever his defense lacked was surely made up (and then some) by a powerful bat. Probably would have been the best major league third baseman for 1923 and 1929, as well as the best major league shortstop for 1925, if he had been allowed to play.

6) Dickey Pearce-SS/C (n/e): All-around player at the position, extremely long career and arguably the best player of his time (my pick for greatest player of the 1860s). Caught many games as a catcher (even was an All-Star at the position one year). He played for over twenty years in the best leagues or on the best teams of the 1850s and '60s. Even though his NA and NL was meager (he was 35 in '71), he still had the most value after 35 until Dahlen and Davis in the 20th century, FWIW.              

7) Joe Jackson-RF/LF (n/a): Le Pew! He was unquestionably great at his peak, but to be an inner circle HoMer for me, I need more career. It was his own avarice that ended his career abruptly, not mine. As in the Twenties, I will not be swayed by any arguments in his defense. Best major league rightfielder for 1911, 1912 and 1913. Best major league leftfielder for 1916 and 1920. Best AL leftfielder for 1917.

8) Lip Pike (n/e): Considered the fastest man of his time. Best centerfielder for 1874, 1875 and 1876. Best rightfielder for 1871. Star second and third baseman for half of the 1860s.

9) Alejandro Oms-CF (n/e): Long career and fine prime.

10) Dick Lundy-SS (n/e): Not a dominating shortstop during his time, but he had a lot of great competition. Good enough peak and long career.

11) Dobie Moore-SS (n/e): Terrific peak; wished he had a little more career. I give him credit for his pre-NeL seasons. Probably would have been the best shortstop in the majors in 1919, 1921, 1922, and 1924.

12) Quincey Trouppe-C (n/e): The only candidate that I never voted for, but he was always close to making it.
   2. karlmagnus Posted: March 10, 2008 at 12:47 AM (#2709435)
Have taken my original positionings and then modified them substantially as I’ve benchmarked these guys against each other, moving some up and down several places. Also added the 1898 guys – I first voted in 1900. Once you get beyond Jackson and McVey and Barnes I don’t find this list particularly impressive – nowhere near as good as #3.


1. Joe Jackson (1927- 2nd) About 15% better than Elmer Flick

2. Cal McVey (1912-2nd) 1,986 hits in 9 normalized seasons of 1871-79, normalized season by season, at the end of which he was 28 1/2. Peak of 7 successive “adjusted” 200-hit seasons in 1871-77. Giving any reasonable credit for post-29 puts him in HOM territory, even though he slowed a little from his peak in 1878-79 (to level of 170-hit “adjusted” seasons.) TB+BB/PA .453, TB+BB/Outs .700, less than Meyerle, but played more. Considerably higher peak than Sutton, even if shorter career. Don’t entirely believe sabermetric “funny numbers” but to the extent I understand them, they point to McVey.

3. Ross Barnes (1898-N/A) 2014 “adjusted” to 130-game season hits, enough for a decent career, at an OPS+ of 166. I think McVey has more outside career, but the overall rankling between these two is close, though Shoeless Joe is clearly better than either. Of course the question of adjusting downwards for the proportion of fair/foul bunts also arises.

4. Dickey Pearce (1931-6th) Somewhat unimpressive in NA, but pattern recognition suggests that’s the tail end of a top quality career. Long and pretty good career in period before the leagues – best bit of it however was before 1865, when data is very sketchy indeed and competition was local to NY area. Probably the third best 1860s player, behind George Wright and Joe Start.

5. Pete Rose (1993-12th) Hugely, but hugely overrated, another massive error by WS. 4256 hits at 118. 149CS to 198SB subtracts another 50 from that. TB+BB/PA .462 TB+BB/Outs.710, mostly in a hitters era. Sheer stupidity in all its forms deserves to get marked down. I was hoping to have him 16, but the opinion of others (see, I do listen!) has convinced me to raise him here. That’s as far as it goes, though.

6. Quincy Trouppe (1995-13th) Not quite as good as Lombardi or Schang, but was on ballot in quiet years. OPS+118, about 1900 adjusted hits. Much better than Mackey.

7. Alejandro Oms (2006-15th) New MLE OPS+ of 125 moves him down a bit. Shorter career than Beckley, and not quite as valuable, but he was a darn good player nonetheless. Had fallen too far; put him just above Staub.

8. John Beckwith (1957-15th) A bit more confident, now I’ve seen we’re not automatically enshrining Lundy/Foster/Johnson. Also, Chris Cobb’s equivalents are looking more solid to me. Definitely better than Suttles, but had a short career.

9. Grant Johnson (1925-15th) Another Negro League 2B, apparently somewhat better than Monroe. Not convinced by comparisons with Pop Lloyd until we get to Pop Lloyd. Will move up or down as further Negro league stars appear or more evidence is received. Certainly don't think he's "Top 5" or ahead of Grant. Moved him back on the ballot in a tie-breaker -- McGuire's not going anywhere in '25.

10. Lip Pike (1940-23rd) Like Start, give some credit for missing 1860s. However, normalize 1871-78 season by season and he gets 1,592 hits after 26 - not quite an obvious HOM-er. 4 “normalized 200-hit” seasons, but only just, whereas Meyerle’s 1871 peak normalizes to 320 (obviously a random fluctuation, but in the right direction!)TB+BB/PA .478, TB+BB/Outs .713.

11. Dick Lundy (2008-51st) Never really saw the Merit in him.

12. Dobie Moore (1991-off) hugely overrated; off my consideration set.
   3. sunnyday2 Posted: March 10, 2008 at 01:47 AM (#2709461)
karl just never liked the idea of a guy who didn't have the guts to cover a freakin' base.
   4. Rusty Priske Posted: March 10, 2008 at 01:10 PM (#2709637)
1. Pete Rose - Easily the best player on this list.

2. John Beckwith - Would/could/should have been a star.

3. Ross Barnes - Outstanding

4. Grant Johnson - Another great player.

5. Quincy Trouppe - Very strong catcher.

6. Cal McVey - Good career.

7. Joe Jackson - I'm a career guy so he can't go that high. His career was cut short but by something I will give no credit for.

8. Dick Lundy - Career

9. Dobie Moore - Underrated.

10. Dickey Pearce - Overrated. Still deserving.

11. Lip Pike - Borderline but in.

12. Alejandro Oms - Not deserving
   5. sunnyday2 Posted: March 10, 2008 at 02:14 PM (#2709682)
First, how do these guys rank among their peers? And I'm still a peak/prime oriented voter.

19C--I'm pretty happy with Barnes, Pearce, McVey, Pike

NgL--I'm pretty happy with Johnson, Moore, Lundy, Beckwith, Trouppe and Oms

20C--Rose beats Jackson more easily than I thought; even as a peak/prime voter I can't get this too close

The integration of the 3 groups is harder but in the end I didn't change anything from my prelim.

1. Pete Rose--I tried hard to avoid this but couldn't; doesn't have the peak that some do, but he's so far ahead on career it's just silly
2. Grant Johnson--the only guy I could possibly think of as a threat to Petey
(gap)
3. Dobie Moore--awesome peak
4. Ross Barnes--awesome peak, comparable to Bob Gibson (get it?)
5. Joe Jackson--good peak, not quite awesome
(gap)
6. Dickey Pearce--career
7. Cal McVey--prime
8. Dicky Lundy--career
9. John Beckwith--prime
10. Lip Pike--prime, Beckwith and Pike make a nice pairing I think, the arguments against being pretty darn similar (an uppity Jew and an uppity black man). I understand that many will prefer Beckwith to Lundy but I still say if I'm building a team I put Lundy out there first, not because anybody is uppity but because one has a Hoover for a glove and will play for 20 years. Even as a peak/prime voter I gotta respect that.
(gap)
11. Quincy Trouppe--career with position bonus or else he's #12, not PHoM though neither Trouppe nor Oms was that far from my ballot at one time or another
12. Alejandro Oms--career, not PHoM
   6. ronw Posted: March 10, 2008 at 05:03 PM (#2709828)
Group 4 ranking – MVP/AS are my own calculations, but for Negro Leaguers I use some combination of Holway/James MVP and AS selections.

1993 - Pete Rose - #1 1993; #2 1992. 7 MVP, 14 AS. 20.4 bWS/700PA. Long career, high enough peak, easily the top of this ballot.

1927 - Joe Jackson - #3 1927; #4 1926. 7 MVP, 8 AS. 32.3 bWS/700PA. I’m putting the ban aside, and just focusing on his career. It was abbreviated, but fantastic.

1957 - John Beckwith - #1 1942; #2 1940, 1949, 1956-57; #3 1941, 1945, 1948, 1951; #4 1946-47, 1950, 1954, 1955; #5 1943-1944, 1952-53. Debuted at #2 for me, and did not leave the top 5 until he was elected. I accepted papabell’s arguments that Beckwith was one of the most feared hitters of the 1920s. 2 MVP, 7 AS.

1925 - Grant Johnson - #1 1925; #2 1921; #3 1922, 1924; #4 1923. I’m still flabbergasted that he did not make the Hall of Fame.

1991 - Dobie Moore - #3 1984, 1985, 1987; #4 1967-68, 1975-76, 1986, 1988, 1991; #5 1966, 1970-71, 1973, 1977, 1979, 1983; #6 1965, 1969, 1972, 1974, 1978, 1981, 1990; #7 1958, 1960-61, 1980, 1982, 1989; #8 1964; #9 1956-57, 1959, 1963; #10 1945, 1962; #12 1943-44, 1946, 1954-55. 1 MVP, 6 AS. I liked Dobie, but he is definitely all peak.

1898 - Ross Barnes – Before my voting time. 5 MVP, 7 AS. The peak is too high to ignore, and he played within the rules of the game.

1914 - Cal McVey - #1 1914; #2 1913; #4 1912; #5 1911. 2 MVP, 9 AS. If only he didn’t come to my home state.

1931 - Dickey Pearce - #1 1927, 1929-31; #2 1926, 1928; #3 1925; #15 1913. I slowly came around on Dickey Pearce. He belongs in the HOM, but just barely.

1940 - Lip Pike - #9 1918-19; #10 1914-16; #11 1913, 1917. 3 MVP, 6 AS. High enough peak, but I am not sure about just how many quality pre-NA years he had.

2008 - Dick Lundy - #11 1945; #13 1944, 1946; #14 1947, 1949; #15 1948, 1950. 2 MVP, 7 AS. I’ve always liked Lundy, but due to a low OBP, may not have quite been the SS I was looking for.

1995 - Quincy Trouppe – never voted for him. 0 MVP, 3 AS. I suppose I did not trust the additional numbers we had.

2006 - Alejandro Oms – never voted for him. 0 MVP, 3 AS. Seems too much like contemporaries Sam Rice or Harry Hooper to me. Solid career, but nothing fancy.
   7. Sean Gilman Posted: March 11, 2008 at 08:25 PM (#2710690)
Group 4: NA, NL, Banned

1. Pete Rose -- I really don’t like him.

2. Grant Johnson -- Seems much more likable.

3. Ross Barnes -- Here starts a run of great peaks. Barnes’s was the highest, and he’s got the most career value as well.

4. Dobie Moore -- Moore, Barnes and Pike have a lot in common: great peaks in unconventional leagues over a fairly short span of time, depending on how much you value their pre-unconventional league play.

5. Lip Pike -- Faster than a horse.

6. John Beckwith -- Never been a huge fan, but the translations give him a solid career with an underrated peak, the second best of any of these NLers (not counting Johnson).

7.Cal McVey -- Less career, less peak than Pike. Much better peak than anybody beloew him on this ballot, though.

8. Dickey Pearce -- We can’t really know how good he was at his best, but had a tremendously long career with a solid peak as measured by his league play.

9. Dick Lundy -- Seems extremely comparable to Pearce: long career shortstop with a questionable peak.

10. Joe Jackson -- Overrated by romanticism.

11. Alejandro Oms -- Very solid all-around player, doesn’t stand out anywhere for me.

12. Quincy Trouppe -- Least great of a strong group. Are Trouppe and Oms the most anonymous players in the HOM?
   8. Dizzypaco Posted: March 11, 2008 at 08:50 PM (#2710723)
I'm sure that there have been long, long discussion about this, but I just don't get the Joe Jackson comments. I understand those that say his career wasn't long enough. But I don't understand those that claim his peak wasn't that great. He played in majors for nine full seasons, during which time he was one of the top five hitters in the league all nine times. That's unbelievable. How many players in baseball history have finished in the top five in OPS+ their first nine full years in the league? And this was a league in which Cobb had another of these slots every year.
   9. Sean Gilman Posted: March 11, 2008 at 09:07 PM (#2710742)
Frank Thomas was first or second in his league in OPS+ in each of his first seven full seasons in the majors.
   10. Howie Menckel Posted: March 12, 2008 at 12:43 AM (#2710834)
I completely agree with dizzypaco.

Jackson was not only top 5 every year - nearly every single player who ever finished ahead of him is a HOMer as well, in many or most cases first-ballot HOMers.
   11. Howie Menckel Posted: March 12, 2008 at 12:46 AM (#2710836)
Group 4 ballot
I like this group even less than most other voters will, except for Jackson. I like him more than most, not as effusive on Rose, and the bottom parts of the ballot are guys I barely if ever voted for.


1. SHOELESS JOE JACKSON - Played during a messy time when nasty men were both playing, and owning, teams. There were numerous proven and unproven scandals in the previous 20 years, and Comiskey's cheapness only added fuel to the fire. Jackson gets no sentiment from me for having his career cut short; if you can't do the time, don't do the crime. But he wasn't the central figure in the scandal, either. And even without any sentiment, his OPS+ set of 193-192-192-172-166-160-155-146-143 will have him battling the other "ballot winners" for my overall No. 1 slot.
2. PETE ROSE - All-time leader in OS (Out Shares). Best OPS+ was 158. Will benefit from misleading Win Share tally, unfortunately. But his ridiculous durability, longevity, and chameleonic position changes furiously will him to this slot. Truly was a force of nature, if you missed his prime. Overrated by history, but the intensity was palpable. Do people under 30 even know that he sprinted to 1st base after each walk?
3. ROSS BARNES - Adj OPS+ ranks from 1871-76 of 3-1-1-9-4-1. And 1st or 2nd in PA four of those seasons. Even with a modest dip given the primordial nature of his era, that's a nice peak.
4. CAL MCVEY - (1st on my 1914 ballot) Top 5 in BA six times in seven years - three of those times as a catcher. Switched away from C in 1878-79 when he moved to Cincy, which had some guy named Deacon White behind the plate. Not a short career by 1870s standards, and deserves at least a nod for both pre- and post-NA/NL play.
5. GRANT JOHNSON - Evidence even more fragmentary than the early white players; but the reputation, the play vs white players, the stats we do have, the longevity - it all keeps adding up in a good direction. Maybe someday we'll be able to define his career a bit better.
6. DICKEY PEARCE - Comparison to Joe Start is that you add the late-career high-end material to the spectacular reputation, and it logically follows that he fairly likely was the dominant player he was said to be. 2nd-oldest player in his league from 1872-77, yet still was asked to patrol SS. St. Louis Times, 1868: "Pearce has been noted as a superior shortstop for ten years and to-day has no equal in the base ball field. He bats with great judgment and safety.."
7. JOHN BECKWITH - (5th for me in 1957, when he was elected.) Truly a great hitter, but concerns about fielding ability, career length, and itinerant work history - even by Negro League standards - does cast some doubt. Fascinating character for us to add to the HOM, I'll admit.
8. QUINCY TROUPPE - Took me a long time to conclude that he wasn't just a durable, long-career catcher. A better hitter than I'd thought previously - he didn't always get to play against many HOMers, but stacked up nicely when he did.
9. LIP PIKE - It bugs me a little that he didn't play much alongside 'the big boys' at a time when they seemed to seek each other out, but the hitting numbers are dazzling at times - 4 times in the top 3 in OPS+. Weird career.
10. DOBIE MOORE - Not sure why he curried more favor with peaksters than, say, Dizzy Dean. Not on my ballot when he was elected in 1991. I don't have a problem with giving players credit for the best available play they can get, but that Army ball.... it's not really working for me.
11. ALEJANDRO OMS - Can't get it out of my head that this is another Max Carey - and Max was only 15th on the ballot when he got elected. I'm not a OF-defense granter, either, so he gets less help on that from me than others will give. Comfortable putting him in the Hall of Very Good; not sure he's a HOMer.
12. DICK LUNDY - Appears to have been greatly helped by the elections of Trouppe and Oms. Not sure if voters were looking for another Negro Leaguer to vote for, or what. I'm not buying the offense arguments; I'll grant him the defense. Better than, say, Dave Bancroft? I don't think that he was.
   12. TomH Posted: March 12, 2008 at 07:34 PM (#2711391)
1 Pete Rose
2 Ross Barnes - even if I'm not a peak voter, AND dock him a bit for the bunt thing.
3 Cal McVey, neck and neck with
4 G Johnson
5 Joe Jackson
6 Dickey Pearce
7 John Beckwith
8 Lip Pike
9 Dick Lundy
10 Quincy Trouppe
--PhOM line--, but Oms ain't bad either, and if I were a peak man Dobie would be higher.
11 Alex Oms
12 Dobie Moore
   13. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: March 13, 2008 at 01:03 AM (#2711607)
Yeah, I don't get the Jackson-bashing either. His 1911-13 were NUTS good. The 192 OPS+'s, with excellent durability to boot, speak for themselves, and his defense was good enough to play a little center. (The uberstats are quite fond of it for the first two years). *After* giving him a very stiff standard deviation adjustment, I have those three seasons at 10.2, 9.8, and 9.2 WARP2, for a three-year consecutive total of 29.2. MLB position players who accumulated at least 29 WARP2 over three straight years from 1893-2005:

Barry Bonds
Honus Wagner
Ted Williams
Babe Ruth
Mickey Mantle
Ty Cobb
Rogers Hornsby
Alex Rodríguez
Tris Speaker
Arky Vaughan
Joe Morgan
Hughie Jennings
Joe Jackson
Mike Schmidt

Sure, from 1914 onwards, he wasn't quite the same guy, although still comparable to the prime of many lower-to-mid-tier HoM outifielders (his 1916 and 1920 were good enough to win an MVP in a weak year, and his 1917 and 1919 were very strong All-Star campaigns). But what he did those first three years in the league (plus his brief 1910 callup) was downright historic.
   14. Paul Wendt Posted: March 13, 2008 at 01:52 AM (#2711625)
Howie Menckel - several good comments although I'll never be *that* high on Joe Jackson.

4. CAL MCVEY - (1st on my 1914 ballot) Top 5 in BA six times in seven years - three of those times as a catcher. Switched away from C in 1878-79 when he moved to Cincy, which had some guy named Deacon White behind the plate. Not a short career by 1870s standards, and deserves at least a nod for both pre- and post-NA/NL play.

We don't have any systematic data on transactions before the inter-club variety where David Ball provided a great start, the 19th century pillar of the Transactions Database. So we know nothing --nothing compiled-- from the 1870s when clubs didn't even recognize among themselves any continuing rights in players.

Cincinnati hired McVey from Chicago to manage and the Whites from Boston to compose the main battery. I understand that manager-captains were commonly signed early and commonly played a role in putting the team together, but I don't know whether McVey played that role here.
(One year later they brought Ross Barnes back to the League. Certainly McVey was involved in assembling that 1879 team.)

White had moved from behind the bat to 1B/OF (not 3B) in 1877, his last season under Harry Wright. Could it be that Harry knew something? White enjoyed a career year at bat. Take a look: does it seem White and O'Rourke must have carried that team during its own innings. (Now look at 1878.)
Brother Will White pitched three games for Boston in 1877, July debut. In my imagination, Cincinnati hires the White brothers as a tandem and part of the sales pitch is that Deacon returns to his old spot, at least when Will pitches, and the ace pitcher's role is Will's to lose. I have no idea whether White enjoyed the 1877 combination of easier fielding position and greater batting success, so no idea whether it's appropriate to say he "gets the opportunity to go back to catching". But I have some idea that to "battery mate" his brother full time was an opportunity in the usual sense.


9. LIP PIKE - It bugs me a little that he didn't play much alongside 'the big boys' at a time when they seemed to seek each other out, but the hitting numbers are dazzling at times - 4 times in the top 3 in OPS+. Weird career.

Could it be anti-semitism? Was there much of that, or any in cities that had not yet seen any significant immigration. Probably it depends on the 150-year old teachings on historical and social questions by various Christian churches and I don't know much about that. I know the R.C. church had not yet equated abortion with taking human life, which is just enough to know that all inference from our 20th century needs some grounding in research.

Maybe he was (perceived to be) a wild baserunner, perhaps overly proud of his great speed. Or something like that.
   15. Paul Wendt Posted: March 13, 2008 at 02:03 AM (#2711629)
9. Grant Johnson (1925-15th) Another Negro League 2B, apparently somewhat better than Monroe. Not convinced by comparisons with Pop Lloyd until we get to Pop Lloyd.

That may be an old comment, unexamined this week. But in case anyone doesn't know . . .

Karl,
Grant Johnson played mainly shortstop for more than 15 pro seasons, moved to second when teamed with Lloyd. How close to exclusively shortstop, I don't know. We need to log games for several blackball teams in order to describe careers with greater confidence. (Jim Riley's encyclopedic entries with fielding positions listed in descending order and typographically encoded may be grounded in research at the level of finding a box score for each team-season and recording the lineup; or reading many game stories for some seasons and composing a representative lineup from memory; not much more, I'm sure.)
   16. Paul Wendt Posted: March 13, 2008 at 02:03 AM (#2711630)
Er, this is the ballot thread. So sorry.
Sigh.
   17. OCF Posted: March 13, 2008 at 07:09 AM (#2711729)
From Dan R's #13:

...and his 1917 and 1919 were very strong All-Star campaigns)

There was no MVP vote or anything like it in 1919. Had there been an MVP vote, I think Jackson would have won it. He wouldn't have deserved it, but I think he would have won it. That's how strong the "winning team" bias in such votes was, and to some extent, still is. Batting average was king. Cobb did lead the league in BA by about 30 points, but the Tigers finished 8 games back, and Cobb missed some games. (And the year was nothing special by Ty Cobb standards, which can often work against a player.) Veach and Sisler had BA very slightly above Jackson, but Veach was on Cobb's team and Sisler's Browns were below .500.

Of course Ruth's offensive accomplishments for 1919 were astounding and incomprehensible - and they would not have been comprehended. Maybe the fact that he led the league in both R and RBI could have drawn attention his way, but I don't think the sportwriters of he time could have put together how valuable he really was. Furthermore, as the incumbent MVP (having, in fiction, won the 1918 award), Ruth would have faced the general reluctance to let people repeat. (I am positing a world in with repeat MVP's are legal.)

Of course, the fictional 1919 MVP election of Jackson would have led to the equally fictional 1920 sportswriter vote to strip him of that MVP title and retroactively award it to Ruth - or maybe Collins.
   18. karlmagnus Posted: March 14, 2008 at 01:05 AM (#2712382)
Paul (15), it was an old comment, from my '25 ballot, before we'd examined the NgL candidates. However I stand by the placement of Johnson, partly because we know so little it's tough to prove it wrong. I had Grant ahead of him that year.
   19. Rick A. Posted: March 14, 2008 at 02:55 AM (#2712477)
Group 4 ballot
1. Pete Rose Ranks first on this ballot. Wish he didn't
2. Joe Jackson Not Cobb(who is?) but great player.
3. Ross Barnes Best peak on ballot. Shortish career.
4. Grant Johnson Very close between Barnes and Johnson.
5. Cal McVey 1 step below Barnes.
6. Dickey Pearce Long career. I give full credit for pre NA work.
7. Dobie Moore Great hitter/fielder. Not Hughie Jennings, but pretty darn close.
8. Lip Pike Cal McVey lite.
9. John Beckwith Would have been a thirdbaseman in majors.
10. Quincy Trouppe Very nice totals for catcher.
11. Alejandro Oms Long career.
-------- PHOM line -------------------
12Dick lundy Just missed my PHOM. If we'd continued for 1 more year, he'd have made it.
   20. Chris Cobb Posted: March 14, 2008 at 04:38 PM (#2712774)
HoF “Ineligibles” Ballot

Because most of the players here aren’t covered by Dan R’s WAR, I have relied mostly upon my older numbers, and I have ranked players in terms of their percentage about the in-out line for their decade. I use the percentage rather than a raw number because the line drops substantially over time when one uses WARP1, because of the way it handles fielding replacement level. The numbers for Rose and Jackson include Dan R’s WAR. The NeL players’ numbers are based on my or Dr. Chaleeko’s win-share projections. The NA players’ numbers are based on WARP1 and win-share estimates derived from WARP.

1. Pete Rose. % = 159.4. Nice peak, and just too much career for anyone else here to catch. I liked the description of him as “a force of nature” in an earlier ballot!
2. Grant Johnson. % = 141.3. It's possible he was better than Rose, but we'd need to see his peak to be certain.
3. Ross Barnes. % = 135.7. Placement depends partly on how much pre-1971 credit he gets. This is with two seasons. With three, he has an argument to pass Johnson, and I can see why a peak voter would have him #1. He was a barracuda in a bathtub, but he was still the best.
4. Joe Jackson. % = 115.4. Awesome decade of play, but nothing else, and not nearly as dominant as Barnes.
5. Dickey Pearce. Hard to place, but he was the first ballplayer of sustained excellence.
6. Lip Pike. % = 105.2. Second best hitter of his era after Barnes. Four years of pre-1871 credit puts him ahead of the more versatile McVey among his contemporaries. Deserving HoMer, but lower-tier, as are all the rest here.
7. John Beckwith. % = 105.1. Great hitter, and played third base.
8. Dick Lundy. % = 104.5. Hitting reevaluation based on more complete BB data from the HoF study (when are they going to publish??) moved him over the in-out line.
9. Quincy Trouppe. % = 104.2. Strong hitter, versatile defender.
10. Alejandro Oms. % = 104.1. Fine prime; lost early years could have put him higher.
11. Cal McVey. % = 100. Deacon-White lite. Pretty similar offensively to White offensively, average defensively at high value positions where White was excellent. If White had played only as long as Pike and McVey, he’d be somewhere around 4-6 on this ballot. McVey may be a little bit underrated here, since his value sets the in-out line for the 1870s, but because there are only 8 for that decade, there is more space between players: he might be a few percentage points above an “all-time” in-out line. But we can’t measure the early players with enough precision to know for sure. I’m confident that he is a HoMer, and I’m pretty confident that he is the lowest-ranking HoMer of his day. I’m not confident that he is better or worse than Lundy, Trouppe, or Oms.
12. Dobie Moore. % = 92.9. Only player on this ballot below my in-out line. He could have been a worthy HoMer, but he wasn't great enough for long enough with his career cut short as it was. His election was a mistake fueled by an overrating of his peak that I never could understand. It wasn’t comparable to that of Barnes or of Hughie Jennings, the two “pure peak” candidates whose election I support. I give Moore credit for his military play.
   21. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 14, 2008 at 06:04 PM (#2712882)
5. Dickey Pearce. Hard to place, but he was the first ballplayer of sustained excellence.


If you don't mind, Chris, I would like to add that to his plaque. Not the "hard to place" part, however. :-D
   22. DL from MN Posted: March 14, 2008 at 06:36 PM (#2712904)
Been out with the flu for over a week so I'm going to rely heavily on the consensus for sorting the pre 1880 players.

1) Pete Rose - Everyone agrees he was an all-time great and an all-time jerk.
2) John Beckwith - I like 3B and he could hit and play some SS also
3) Grant Johnson - Career a little shorter than I'd like to crack the top 3
4) Ross Barnes - I really don't know much about him but he seems a cut above
5) Quincy Trouppe - Strong hitter for a catcher, I like him better than Torre
6) Dickey Pearce - I know even less about him. There may be some timelining here but I'd say Trouppe has more certainty than Pearce which is saying something about how little information I have on Pearce.
7) Dick Lundy - Strong glove, decent bat
8) Dobie Moore - Performed at the Ernie Banks level for a short period of time
9) Lip Pike - Great player for his era but not a household name
10) Cal McVey - Short career and I'm a career voter
11) Alejandro Oms - Not PHoM, his offense doesn't measure up to Bob Johnson levels
12) Joe Jackson - No credit for the year of the Black Sox scandal or subsequent years. He didn't add any pennants during that season and he should have been tossed out quickly afterwards. If I give him credit for those years he jumps up the list to around #6.
   23. Chris Cobb Posted: March 15, 2008 at 12:54 AM (#2713113)
3) Grant Johnson - Career a little shorter than I'd like to crack the top 3

I'm a bit confused by this comment, since Johnson appears to have cracked your top 3, and he had a nineteen-year career (1895-1913) at the top level of play available to him.
   24. Paul Wendt Posted: March 15, 2008 at 05:34 AM (#2713185)
> 8) Dobie Moore - Performed at the Ernie Banks level for a short period of time

Was it shorter than Banks?

--
By the way, in case you haven't checked, I have recently posted some pre-1871 data in the player threads for Group 3 and Group 4 players. If you have been here reading everything for a few years, what's new is more complete and systematic "rank on team" context for the limited batting/running statistics. Of course that is enriched with some non-statistical material. If you are new you will pick up a few things about the high-level game at dawn of the professional era.
   25. Rob_Wood Posted: March 15, 2008 at 08:18 PM (#2713374)
Group 4 ballot:

1. Pete Rose - career value far exceeds these other guys
2. Joe Jackson - great peak, crammed enuf in 10 years to merit 2nd slot
3. Ross Barnes - outstanding player
4. Grant Johnson - long career, good power
5. John Beckwith - very good hitter, questionable defense, shortish career
6. Cal McVey - early catching star, hard to place
7. Dobie Moore - high peak, shortish career
8. Dick Lundy - recent re-evaluation bumped him up a few slots
9. Dickey Pearce - long career, good shortstop, not enuf hitting
10. Lip Pike - all around good player, could be higher
11. Alejandro Oms - good center fielder, long career, okay offense
12. Quincy Trouppe - not impressed, only guy I never voted for
   26. OCF Posted: March 16, 2008 at 01:37 AM (#2713512)
I've been an "anti-antiquarian" voter, one who has often been more willing to move on to new players than dig up previously unsupported old players. As such, this ballot isn't exactly my cup of tea. The following ballot is not all that carefully reasoned.

1. Rose: I didn't boycott him. #2 on my 1992 ballot behind Seaver and ahead of Grich; #4 on my 1993 ballot behind Carlton, Neikro, and Reggie.

2. Jackson: I boycotted him in 1926, #1 on my 1927 ballot. I kept trying to make "overrated, not really that good" arguments about him but they wouldn't stick.

3. Johnson: I started him low at 11 in 1921 but as the evidence accumulated, I jumped him over several others. Was #1 on my 1925 ballot, ahead of Magee, Sheckard, Wallace. The one the recent blackball HOF committee whiffed on.

4. Barnes: Elected before my time.

5. Beckwith: Ranked between 2 and 7 on by ballot from 1940 to 1957; was #2, ahead of Hack Ruffing, Medwick, Boudreau when elected.

6. Trouppe: I was always much more sold on him than on Oms, Moore, or Lundy. Spent a long time in the 5-8 range on my ballot, #3 in his election year.</b>

7. McVey: Ranked 9-14 on my ballots every year until elected; 10 when elected. At that time, I had him behind Duffy, Van Haltren, and Ryan.

8. Oms: I listed him as #30 in the year of his election; never before that.

9. Pearce: was #24 on my off-ballot in the year of his election, and that was the highest I ever had him. I also have never been that big a supporter of dawn-of-the-game players.

10. Moore: He was in the 25-30 range on my off-ballot from 1958 to 1988, fell off after that. I've never been that much of a peakster.

11. Pike: I never voted for him.

12. Lundy: Was never on my ballot. I'm not sure I fully buy our revision on him.
   27. jimd Posted: March 16, 2008 at 08:42 PM (#2713788)
I had a longer ballot partially done, but life has intervened, so the writeup is done in a hurry:

1) Pete Rose -- (4th in 1993) He ranks amongst the top players on the other ballots, final order TBD.

big gap

2) Ross Barnes -- (3rd in 1898) Arguably the best player in the NA. That counts for a lot.

3) Cal McVey -- (11th in 1914) I think more of him now than I did then; his flexibility was impressive.

The next group is largely interchangeable in order.

4) Grant Johnson (8th in 1925) -- Like Pearce, a long career in an era whose competitive factor is difficult to judge.
5) John Beckwith (6th/8th in 1956) -- These three are the significant NeL omissions from the HOF.
6) Dickey Pearce (3rd in 1931) --
7) Joe Jackson (15Tie in 1927) -- My older system was somewhat harsh on him. His prime is good.
8) Dick Lundy (8th in 2008) -- Not quite as sold on him as I am on Johnson and Beckwith; but his latest MLE's say that he has a good chance of belonging to this group.

Near the bottom of my PHOM:
9) Dobie Moore (14th in 1991)
10) Lip Pike (not on ballot in 1940)

Not in my PHOM:
11) Quincey Trouppe (not on ballot in 1995)
12) Alejandro Oms (not on ballot in 2006)
   28. Esteban Rivera Posted: March 16, 2008 at 10:01 PM (#2713836)
Kind of disappointed with the low turnouts for these last two groups. Oh well, here goes my stab at the ordering:

1) Pete Rose - Reluctantly but does have the career and quality for the top spot.

2) Grant Johnson - Offense, defense, career length. At short. Ahead of everyone else.

3) Ross Barnes - One of the first bonafide superstars of the organized professional leagues. Pre-NA credit included. No penalty for playing within the rules of the game.

4) Joe Jackson - Reluctantly, his peak is enough for the fourth spot.

5) Cal McVey - Pre-Na credit and post-NL credit included. Offensive star at the important defensive positions of his time.

6) Dobie Moore - Army credit included. Terrific shortstop. If he had just not gotten horny.

7) John Beckwith - Hitting is there. Defensive and attitude issues keep him below Moore.

8) Dick Lundy - Defense and career length coupled with not damaging offense.

9) Lip Pike - Gets dinged for having a shorter career than the other players from his era in this group.

10) Dickey Pearce - Never was too sure about Dickey. Can't deny the defense and career length but his hitting has always been a huge question mark for me. Then again, players were more reknowned in his day for defense. Still, the highest I can feel justified placing him.

11) Quincy Trouppe
12) Alejandro Oms - Not crazy about either Trouppe or Oms. Trouppe's ahead based on position.
   29. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: March 16, 2008 at 11:58 PM (#2713880)
Hmm. I thought I had a pretty good handle on these rankings, then I went to look at my old ratings, and they didn't quite match up with the way I was thinking. Was I right then, or not?

1. Pete Rose. An easy #1, with an astouding amount of career value.
2. Ross Barnes. I'm surprising myself here, and I don't know that I'm right. If I don't think he was just the beneficiary of a "trick" play, he had a strong enough peak that he deserves to rank this high. And I guess I don't think it was just the fair-foul bunt.
3. Cal McVey. An excellent hitter, and had a lot of defensive value playing catcher. A longer career than Barnes, but when they were both playing, I think Barnes was clearly better.
4. Grant Johnson. He was actually behing Pike and Pearce back in the '20s, and what do I know now that I didn't know then? Not sure, but it just felt wrong having ALL the NA guys ahead of ALL the Negro Leaguers. We'll never know this stuff for certain, and this is my best guess.
5. Dickey Pearce. Very well might have been the best player in baseball for a 10-year period. Even if leagues weren't organized yet, that's quite an accomplishment.
6. Lip Pike. Among the best players in baseball over the 1871-77 period, plus some value before that. This is where my old ratings place him, and I don't see a reason to change.
7. John Beckwith. Hell of a hitter, played important positions at least respectably. He wasn't the greatest guy to have around, but his teams still did pretty good.
8. Joe Jackson. I didn't see a reason to change this ranking from the 20s. An outstanding peak, but he couldn't maintain it. Also might not have been the best guy to have around.
9. Quincy Trouppe. He WAS a good guy to have around the clubhouse, and a 22-year career of mostly catching, with decent hitting, is a pretty solid record of accomplishment.
10. Dobie Moore. The obvious comparison is Hughie Jennings, and I think Moore was better. Jennings may have had a higher peak, but couldn't maintain it. Moore was a more consistent player, until accidental circumstances intervened. If I had to pick one for my team, it would be Moore. (Then again, Hughie isn't in my PHoM, which helps explain why Dobie wound up at #10.)
11. Dick Lundy. Worthy of induction, assuming we didn't completely screw up the MLEs. Excellent fielder and a very useful hitter.
12. Alejandro Oms. In my PHoM, but quite close to the borderline. Doesn't have any big flaws, but doesn't have any one strong argument.

Don't think I'm winning the consensus on that one.
   30. TomH Posted: March 17, 2008 at 01:05 AM (#2713899)
1 Pete Rose - scored 2000+ runs; nuf said
2 Ross Barnes - even if I'm not a peak voter, AND dock him a bit for the bunt thing, he was still the best player for a wihle
3 Cal McVey, neck and neck with
4 G Johnson - both fine bats at tough positions
5 Joe Jackson - great stick, short career, no credit for 1919
6 Dickey Pearce - best player in a small hazy fishbowl
7 John Beckwith - great hitter, dinged for dissension
8 Lip Pike - speed sure helped in his time
9 Dick Lundy - based on his rep
10 Quincy Trouppe - based on his rep with bonus for better stats
--PhOM line--, but Oms ain't bad either, and if I were a peak man Dobie would be higher.
11 Alex Oms - HOVG
12 Dobie Moore - very short prime of greatness
   31. Howie Menckel Posted: March 17, 2008 at 01:16 AM (#2713905)
"no credit for 1919"

Jackson finishes 3rd in the AL in adj OPS+ behind Ruth and Cobb, with a top 10 in PA as well.
His team wins the pennant by only 3.5 games.

He hits .375 in the World Series (12 for 32) with 6 RBI. (yes, some curious baserunning/fielding, etc, tis said)

From a moral standpoint, do what you want with this guy.

But if we're trying to figure out the greatest baseball players, I don't get it.

That's a spectacular year.

Jackson has one of the better primes we've ever seen (top 5 adj OPS+ for 9 years, virtually all of those trailed are inner-circle HOMers), and I raise the question if voters (in general) angry with the Black Sox scandal are placing him best on his merits.
   32. Howie Menckel Posted: March 17, 2008 at 01:17 AM (#2713907)
"Virtually all of those "HE" trailed.."

"based on his merits"

why does BTF allow editing but not here?
   33. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 17, 2008 at 12:56 PM (#2714019)
why does BTF allow editing but not here?


I guess we don't rate, Howie.
   34. DL from MN Posted: March 17, 2008 at 05:38 PM (#2714192)
Chris - I agree, the Grant Johnson comment makes no sense.

Paul - I appreciate the effort but I haven't been able to grok the info you've been posting. Perhaps it is the presentation.
   35. Paul Wendt Posted: March 18, 2008 at 04:16 AM (#2714499)
DL,
Do you mean specifically the yearly rank on team in Outs and Runs (Hits and TBoH in 1869-70)?
   36. DL from MN Posted: March 18, 2008 at 01:49 PM (#2714620)
It all looks like 'data' to me but not 'information'. There must be some context I don't have that you do.
   37. Howie Menckel Posted: March 21, 2008 at 02:06 AM (#2716832)
ok, but when is this ballot deadline?
   38. Paul Wendt Posted: March 21, 2008 at 01:10 PM (#2716933)
2008-03-22 20:00:00 EDT
what is that, GMT -400?
   39. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: March 22, 2008 at 08:12 PM (#2717664)
My ineligibles ballot . . .

1. Pete Rose (1993) - Pretty easy choice, I know some say he's overrated, but he was a superstar at his best and lasted forever.

2. Grant Johnson (1925) - Could do it all. Not sure how he was passed over in the recent Negro Leagues election.

3. Joe Jackson (1927) - A little overrated by history due to his short career. But he was a great player.

4. Cal McVey (1912) - I love catcher that can hit.

5. Dickey Pearce (1931) - One of the superstars of the 1860s.

6. Dick Lundy (2008) - I think he's pretty similar to Pearce actually.

7. Quincy Trouppe (1995) - Long career catchers that can hit are pretty valuable.

8. Ross Barnes (1898) - The fair/foul hit was legal in his day, he'dve been crazy not to take advantage of it.

9. John Beckwith (1957) - I think this group overrated him a bit, but he still a worthy HoMer.

10. Alejandro Oms (2006) - I was never much of a supporter of his. He was a very good player, but I think he's borderline.

11. Dobie Moore (1991) - Short career, great peak, I like the long career guys better.

12. Lip Pike (1940) - Another good player, but I think we overrated him some.
   40. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 22, 2008 at 10:03 PM (#2717710)
I spoke to Joe and we decided to keep the election going until Monday at 8 PM now.

Happy Easter!
   41. Tiboreau Posted: March 22, 2008 at 10:31 PM (#2717729)
1. ss Home Run Johnson (3)—The player I know the least about, playing during an era of Negro Leagues when very few records were kept, and was elected to the HoM before I began participating. Grant Johnson had a long career playing SS into his thirties when he joined Pop Lloyd. Known for his hitting prowess and keen batting eye, Johnson appeared to have it all, both a long career and an excellent peak. Possibly the Hall of Fame biggest miscue was not including Grant Johnson among its other Negro League inductions.
2. ut Pete Rose (1)—A lot of years with little value during his career, but was still a very good, HoF player during his peak/prime.
3. lf Joe Jackson (2)—Like Rose, Jackson doesn't need much explanation. Shoeless Joe is overrated a bit due to his legacy, but was one of the greatest hitters of his era and an easy HoMer.
4. 3b John Beckwith (4)—Personality-wise, Beckwith appears to be the Dick Allen of the Negro Leagues, though this reputation is further shrouded in history and controversy among experts. His MLEs are very good and while his defense wasn't lauded he did spend a majority of his career playing ss/3b.
5. 2b Ross Barnes (6)—Similar to the two players below him, Barnes rises to the top of the threesome through his singular domination of his era.
6. ss Dobie Moore (5)—Edges Cal McVey purely because I need to put one player ahead of the other.
7. c Cal McVey (7)—See Ross Barnes and Dobie Moore comments.
8. cf Alejandro Oms (8)—Has not gotten a fair shake due to his best performances taking place in his native Cuba. A long career with a real good prime and a nice but not earth shattering peak, Similar in value to HoMer/HoFer Enos Slaughter.
9. c Quincy Trouppe (9)—His career is even further obscured than Oms's due to plying his trade in a variety of leagues. As a catcher I've figured his value to be just below Ted Simmons and Bill Freehan.
10. ss Dick Lundy (11)—A compromise between his reputation and his MLEs put Lundy on my ballot in our last election year; however, his lack of an outstanding peak puts him near the bottom of this ballot.
11. cf Lip Pike (10)—It's funny, when I began voting I was firmly anti-timeline, believing a Win Share in 1871 was equal to a Win Share in 1941 or 2001. However, as the project has continued my opinion has increasingly changed, feeling that competition in a particular era is a factor that deserves consideration; I'm much more willing to use WARP3 now than to use WARP1 when comparing across eras. The change in opinions isn't big to heavily affect things except in the semi-pro era, and Pike's and Pearce's candidacies rely on their semi-pro years. I don't regret their election to the HoM more than, say, Pete Browning, for they are pioneers of the game; however, they won't be making my (smaller) PHoM.
12. ss Dickey Pearce (12)—See Lip Pike comment.
   42. EricC Posted: March 23, 2008 at 12:59 PM (#2717918)
I won't be submitting a ballot for this election.
   43. andrew siegel Posted: March 24, 2008 at 05:21 AM (#2718210)
Top 50-60 All-Time

(1) Rose--Forgetting the gambling, underrated. Lots of All-Star seasons; tons of career value.

60-125 All-Time

(2) Jackson--Forgetting the gambling, overrated. Short career (with a real argument for not counting the final two seasons), little defensive value, but boy could he hit.
(3) Grant Johnson--In the top half of the HoM, but I'm not sure where.
(4) Beckwith--Even with his baggage, top 10 3B.
(5) Barnes--Very short career, but easily the best player in baseball. Would rank first if he played at that level for four more years.

125-180 All-Time
(6) McVey--I was one of his biggest backers but still have him as a slightly below median HoMer. A poor man's Deacon White.

175-230 All-Time
(7) Trouppe--Big dropoff after the top six. Very close with Lundy and Oms.
(8) Lundy--For these ranking it matters very much whether he was a 106 OPS+ guy or a 98.
(9) Oms--A nice catch on our behalf--long career, good hit, good field. Not quite Sam Crawford but every bit the equal of guys like Wheat, Kelley, Keeler, etc.
(10) Pike--Made my PHoM during one of the softer ballot periods and I'm happy to keep him there, but there are enough issues with his career to sort him to the bottom of this tough list.

Not PHoM
(11) Moore--I voted him #1 for several years but ultimately dropped him when our later numbers showed him to be not quite as dominant for not quite as long as I originally thought. For peak/prime candidates, those little differences matter a lot.
(12) Pearce--Sorry. I still think he was the best kid on the block where this newfangled games happened to be invented who turned out to be a solid but unspectacular player once the rest of the world cottoned to the game.
   44. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 24, 2008 at 11:46 AM (#2718243)
(12) Pearce--Sorry. I still think he was the best kid on the block where this newfangled games happened to be invented who turned out to be a solid but unspectacular player once the rest of the world cottoned to the game.


...and if there were another shortstop that performed like he did at the same ages during the 19th century in the professional leagues, that viewpoint would have weight with the rest of us.
   45. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 25, 2008 at 12:00 AM (#2718971)
The election is now over. Results will be posted shortly (since no one has posted a ballot in a while, there's no need for the 10 PM time).
   46. Pogue009 Posted: March 25, 2008 at 03:37 AM (#2719075)
Has Rock Raines made any of these lists so far?
   47. Howie Menckel Posted: March 25, 2008 at 12:16 PM (#2719491)
Raines finished 2nd in a near dead heat with Blyleven in the most modern group.
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/hall_of_merit/discussion/election_results_blyleven_and_raines_are_deemed_the_cream_of_this_crop_by_u/

Raines overall has the 5th-highest pct of possible pts among the 57 candidates, and will contend for the title in the upcoming overall "hall of merit, not hall of fame" balloting.....

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