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Thursday, January 02, 2014

BBTF Referendum on Hall of Fame candidates

Hall of Fame style ballot referendum only including players from this era who did not receive 75% support in a previous BBTF election. The only alteration from Hall of Fame rules is the voter can vote for any number between zero and all players if they choose. Please list alphabetically for easier ballot counting.

Eligible players: Kevin Appier, Harold Baines, Albert Belle, Kevin Brown, Jose Canseco, Will Clark, David Cone, Tony Fernandez, Chuck Finley, Steve Finley, Julio Franco, Andres Galarraga, Mark Grace, Dwight Gooden, Juan Gonzalez, Orel Hershiser, Jeff Kent, Jimmy Key, Al Leiter, Kenny Lofton, Dennis Martinez, Edgar Martinez, Don Mattingly, Fred McGriff, Jack Morris, Mike Mussina, Paul O’Neill, John Olerud, Rafael Palmeiro, Lance Parrish, Tony Phillips, Brad Radke, Tim Salmon, Bret Saberhagen, Lee Smith, Sammy Sosa, Dave Stieb, Fernando Valenzuela, Robin Ventura, Frank Viola, Larry Walker, David Wells, Lou Whitaker, Bernie Williams, Matt Williams

Voting will close 4PM EST on 10 January 2014

DL from MN Posted: January 02, 2014 at 12:01 PM | 142 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   101. Jittery McFrog Posted: January 04, 2014 at 04:03 PM (#4630056)
I'm not big on Bernie or Lofton but I think the gap between them is smaller than the gap in the voting, especially when you consider postseason.

I don't really see that as a problem. They're both borderline candidates and (I think) Lofton is better. It's not the size of the gap between them, it's whether your in/out line happens to lie there.
   102. Jarrod HypnerotomachiaPoliphili(Teddy F. Ballgame) Posted: January 04, 2014 at 04:15 PM (#4630060)
Kevin Brown
David Cone
Jeff Kent
Kenny Lofton
Edgar Martinez
Mike Mussina
Rafael Palmeiro
Sammy Sosa
Dave Stieb
Larry Walker
Lou Whitaker
   103. The District Attorney Posted: January 04, 2014 at 04:26 PM (#4630069)
Let me say a little more about the Bernie/Edgar allusion I made earlier. According to B-R:

Bernie gets +24 career runs for position adjustment, and -139 fielding runs.
Edgar gets +17 fielding runs, and -128 runs for position adjustment.

So, the two factors just about even out. Bernie Williams is being treated as having essentially the same defensive value as Edgar Martinez.¹

I could accept that someone like Adam Dunn or Dave Kingman -- i.e., someone who made an utter fool of himself to the world attempting to play positions that any ambulatory person should be able to fake -- hurt his team on defense as much as someone who didn't field at all. I really can't accept that a guy who won four Gold Gloves at a very important defensive position did the same.

(And again, about half of Bernie's negative fielding runs come from the final four years of his career, which no one is arguing move him towards the HOF to begin with.)

This could also be an issue with Derek Jeter, BTW. If you go by B-R defensive stats, he's fine: -234 fielding runs, but still at 76.1 WAR. However, Michael Humphries and Tom Tango seem to think he should be evaluated at -350 to -400 fielding runs. That'd make Jeter look a lot closer to Toby Harrah and Luis Aparicio than he would to Luke Appling and Arky Vaughan. Again, one would have to ask, is it possible to have so little defensive value at a key defensive position that you would have helped the team more on defense if you were a DH? To be bad enough at this key position to outweigh a HOF-quality bat?

¹ Yup, it is true that Edgar was not a career DH. If you want the numbers for David Ortiz, it's -14 fielding/-170 positional. Frank Thomas played defense enough to be dangerous. He's -65 fielding/-181 positional.
   104. theorioleway Posted: January 04, 2014 at 04:57 PM (#4630088)
BR has Williams at 49.5 WAR. If you take out his last 4 years because they don't mean anything, he's still at 49.5 WAR, with -65 fielding runs. Even if you think -65 fielding runs is still too low, it's more than defensible to determine that Lofton was better. Even if you take off the last 4 years of Lofton's career, he still has more than 10 career WAR over Williams. Also, Rafael Palmeiro got a Gold Glove for DHing, so I don't know if you want to put a lot of stock in Williams getting four.
   105. The District Attorney Posted: January 04, 2014 at 05:04 PM (#4630091)
Oh, sorry, two separate threads here... I'm arguing Bernie on his own merits, not necessarily Bernie vs. Lofton. I do want to look a little bit into why Rosenheck has Lofton lower than Bernie and almost everyone else, but right now I'm skeptical of that, and am of the opinion that both guys belong.

Oh, and in answer to:
I'm not sure why the list includes Edgar and Mussina but not Trammell and Schilling?
It's because Trammell and Schilling were previously "elected" in the yearly sitewide poll based on the real ballot.
   106. theorioleway Posted: January 04, 2014 at 05:20 PM (#4630101)
Other fielding metrics (such as DRA) aren't as high on Lofton, so that might be what is downgrading him there. That being said, Dan R ranked Lofton 10th and Williams 18th on the latest HOM ballot, so I'm not sure how much stock you want to put into it anyway.
   107. Booey Posted: January 04, 2014 at 06:44 PM (#4630150)
-Kevin Brown (I guess - I never liked him and he didn't quite feel like a HOFer, but Smoltz and Schilling did and they're all pretty similar)
-Jeff Kent
-Edgar Martinez
-Fred McGriff
-Mike Mussina
-Rafael Palmeiro
-Sammy Sosa
-Larry Walker
-Lou Whitaker

Wow, I always considered myself fairly "big hall" and many of you put me to shame! ;-)
   108. DL from MN Posted: January 04, 2014 at 08:35 PM (#4630228)
Trammell and Schilling were previously "elected"


Correct, so was McGwire
   109. Booey Posted: January 05, 2014 at 12:03 AM (#4630312)
Just curious to see where I rank between the large hall and small hall voters - how many HOFers do you all think is a reasonable amount for a modern decade? I'd say around 20 (18-22 range, I guess). I have 21 players from the 90's and 20 (so far) from the 2000-2009 decade in my personal HOF. That seems to be about on par with historical averages, minus some bad VC picks from the early years (especially the 20's and 30's which are way over-represented).
   110. The District Attorney Posted: January 05, 2014 at 01:02 AM (#4630340)
I added WAA (Wins Above Average) to the earlier player comparison GIF.
   111. Bleed the Freak Posted: January 05, 2014 at 03:29 AM (#4630377)
Kevin Appier
Kevin Brown
Will Clark
David Cone
Dwight Gooden
Orel Hershiser
Kenny Lofton
Edgar Martinez
Mike Mussina
Rafael Palmeiro
Bret Saberhagen
Sammy Sosa
Dave Stieb
Larry Walker
Lou Whitaker
Bernie Williams
   112. lieiam Posted: January 05, 2014 at 12:46 PM (#4630465)
Here's my attempt...
My "system" can't really handle career so well, so my list includes judgement calls:


Rafael Palmeiro
Mike Mussina
Lou Whitaker
Edgar Martinez
Larry Walker
Kevin Brown
Will Clark
Sammy Sosa
Jeff Kent
David Cone
Bret Saberhagen
Dave Stieb

There are a number of others I'm seriously pondering but not willing to say yes to at this point.

Also, for you especially Big Hall voters, I wanted to give a shout out to Brett Butler as he's not listed at the top of the thread (and not sure if he's been mentioned anywhere in here. Mark Langston as well.
   113. The District Attorney Posted: January 05, 2014 at 03:30 PM (#4630597)
Agreed that both Butler and Langston are credible candidates. Butler is another center fielder who ends up being viewed as a huge defensive liability (-84 fielding runs, +18 positional adjustment). Butler, in fact, has the same oWAR as Lofton (57.2). Langston is probably the worse version of borderliner Chuck Finley, but you could argue it. Langston does have a couple more WAR7.

I added both Butler and Langston, as well as Luis Gonzalez (who has more WAR than either) and a few others to the player comparison JPG. (Including some relievers, which made me look a little more kindly on Lee Smith. I still wouldn't vote for him, but he's at least clearly above the Tom Henke/John Franco level, which I wasn't necessarily expecting.)
   114. Ron J2 Posted: January 06, 2014 at 11:17 AM (#4631237)
I figure we've got plenty of tools for looking at careers, but some of these guys are pretty much peak guys.

I've just started to play around with rebuilding Dale Stephenson's peak lists. Strictly for offensive players right now.

Best 5 years OWAR, DWAR, rank by OWAR:

Harold Baines    14.0 -3.0 800
Albert Belle     31.3 
-5.4 64
Jose Canseco     23.9 
-4.5 223
Will Clark       26.0 
-3.5 156
Tony Fernandez   18.4  9.2 456
Steve Finley     20.1  5.0 360
Julio Franco     24.3  0.6 203
Andres Galarraga 21.9 
-5.4 285
Mark Grace       17.2 
-1.0 528
Juan Gonzalez    24.6 
-5.5 194
Jeff Kent        25.7  2.6 162
Kenny Lofton     24.1  9.4 213
Edgar Martinez   31.2 
-3.7 65
Don Mattingly    26.7 
-2.6 137
Fred McGriff     24.7 
-2.7 191
Paul O’Neill     19.9 
-0.6 368
John Olerud      26.0 
-0.6 155
Rafael Palmeiro  24.9 
-1.1 185
Lance Parrish    17.2  7.7 530
Tony Phillips    20.7  3.4 332
Tim Salmon       24.1 
-3.5 217
Sammy Sosa       30.7 
-1.3 69 
Robin Ventura    18.4 10.5 455
Larry Walker     29.4  1.3 86
Lou Whitaker     24.7  5.5 190
Bernie Williams  29.1 
-1.0 91
Matt Williams    19.9  5.0 369 


Fittingly, Sammy Sosa finishes just behind Mark McGwire for 5 year peak OWAR.
   115. DL from MN Posted: January 06, 2014 at 12:16 PM (#4631293)
The voting has slowed down so I'm pulling the end date in to Friday 1/10.
   116. DL from MN Posted: January 06, 2014 at 12:38 PM (#4631316)
I'm keeping a tally but would appreciate if our volunteers e-mail me after close.
   117. Davo Dozier Posted: January 06, 2014 at 08:26 PM (#4631850)
Christ, Butler has some lousy SB/CS percentages. Even in that era, I assume 68% was way below break-even, right?
   118. CrosbyBird Posted: January 07, 2014 at 01:03 AM (#4632020)
Kevin Brown
Jeff Kent
Kenny Lofton
Mike Mussina
Rafael Palmeiro
Sammy Sosa
Larry Walker
Lou Whitaker

Kent and Lofton are the only two players I really had trouble with. I think it was primarily the Ichiro discussion that turned me around on Lofton. I don't see how you can make a good statistical case for Ichiro without building a pretty strong case for Lofton.
   119. Mickey Henry Mays Posted: January 07, 2014 at 08:31 AM (#4632072)
Brown
Cone
Kent
Lofton---- a lot like Raines in the sense that after being a full time player had a lot of partial seasons with value.
Edgar
Mussina
Palmeiro
Saberhagen---- I go back and forth with him Cone and Steib. All were really good for a decent amount of time but relatively short careers.
Stieb--- How the hell did he only go 14-13 in '85 considering he led the league in ERA on a 99 win team?
Walker
Whitaker
Bernie--- Yankee bias? I just can't believe he was THAT bad in the field. Him and Jeter were the two best everyday players on the greatest modern dynasty so only 1 HOFer? Unless Jeter manages to field his way out of it too.
   120. Gonfalon B. Posted: January 07, 2014 at 08:59 AM (#4632078)
Stieb--- How the hell did he only go 14-13 in '85 considering he led the league in ERA on a 99 win team?

Getting five losses in a 2-1 game, a 2-0 game, a 3-2 game, a 2-1 game and a 2-1 game probably didn't help.

Stieb pitched in fifteen one-run games that year, and went 1-6.
   121. Mickey Henry Mays Posted: January 07, 2014 at 09:07 AM (#4632081)
Getting five losses in a 2-1 game, a 2-0 game, a 3-2 game, a 2-1 game and a 2-1 game probably didn't help.

Stieb pitched in fifteen one-run games that year, and went 1-6.


Kind of the anti-Morris...and I swore to myself no more Jack Morris bashing.
   122. ThisElevatorIsDrivingMeUpTheWall Posted: January 07, 2014 at 09:24 AM (#4632085)
I think the bar has been set too high for starting pitchers, but there are still several of these guys who I can't add. Appier is a lot closer than I thought. I can't put Gooden in for what should have been, or Wells for what he shouldn't have consumed.

Kevin Brown
David Cone
Kenny Lofton
Edgar Martinez
Fred McGriff
Mike Mussina
Bret Saberhagen
Lee Smith
Dave Stieb
Larry Walker
Lou Whitaker
Bernie Williams
   123. Moeball Posted: January 07, 2014 at 10:22 AM (#4632109)
My list:

Appier
Belle
Brown
Clark
Kent
Lofton
E. Martinez
Mussina
Olerud
Palmeiro
Saberhagen
Sosa
Stieb
Ventura
Walker
Whitaker
   124. CrosbyBird Posted: January 07, 2014 at 10:23 AM (#4632110)
I think the bar has been set too high for starting pitchers

What percentage of HOF players should be pitchers? If you think it's close to 50%, that makes a lot of sense.
   125. Jolly Old St. Nick Still Gags in October Posted: January 07, 2014 at 10:38 AM (#4632116)
Kevin Brown (holding my nose)
Kenny Lofton
Edgar Martinez
Mike Mussina
Sammy Sosa
Larry Walker (I've been converted)
Lou Whitaker


   126. ThickieDon Posted: January 07, 2014 at 10:55 AM (#4632126)
Kevin Appier
Kevin Brown
Will Clark
David Cone
Chuck Finley
Dwight Gooden
Jeff Kent
Kenny Lofton
Edgar Martinez
Fred McGriff
Mike Mussina
John Olerud
Rafael Palmeiro
Bret Saberhagen
Sammy Sosa
Robin Ventura
Larry Walker
Lou Whitaker

Brown, Lofton, Martinez, Mussina, Walker, and Whitaker are the "inner circle", small-Hall guys.

The rest are big-Hall picks, guys I feel have to be in based on who's in there already.

* EDIT: I omitted Clark accidentally.
   127. The District Attorney Posted: January 07, 2014 at 01:34 PM (#4632281)
Christ, Butler has some lousy SB/CS percentages. Even in that era, I assume 68% was way below break-even, right?
It's certainly at least a low number in the modern era for a guy who actually stole a lot of bases. Butler swiped 558 bags. 18 players have stolen 500+ in the integration era. Butler's percentage (68.5%) is by far the worst of them; Maury Wills (73.8%) is next. You have to go down to 353 steals to find a worse percentage, that being Rod Carew (65.4%).

(We can perhaps forgive Carew for his 52% success rate on 31 attempts to steal home ;-)
   128. DL from MN Posted: January 07, 2014 at 02:40 PM (#4632379)
It's funny. 52% success on stealing home indicates a tremendous amount of talent. You'd hope those attempts were highly leveraged or in blowout losses.
   129. Ron J2 Posted: January 07, 2014 at 03:47 PM (#4632481)
#128 As Palmer points out in Hidden Game the two out steal of home has a very low break even point. Somewhere around 35% when Carew was active.

Tom Ruane had Carew as +15.3 for his base stealing once the base/out situation was taken into account, as opposed to the -3 you get via linear weights. The 18 run discrepancy is the 3rd largest positive difference. Just behind Paul Molitor and Pete Rose. All 3 of these guys also show up in the top 15 in Tom's non stolen base baserunning too.

   130. pikepredator Posted: January 07, 2014 at 04:05 PM (#4632513)
Kevin Brown
Edgar Martinez
Mike Mussina
Rafael Palmeiro
Sammy Sosa
Larry Walker
Lou Whitaker


   131. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: January 08, 2014 at 03:41 PM (#4633715)
Kevin Brown
Will Clark
Kenny Lofton
Edgar Martinez
Mike Mussina
Rafael Palmeiro
Bret Saberhagen
Sammy Sosa
Dave Stieb
Larry Walker
Lou Whitaker

Basically, everyone who's made my Personal HoM, plus Lofton & Sosa, who are surrounded by PHoMers on my ballot. Cone is pretty much right on the border, Kent and McGriff a little bit below.
   132. DL from MN Posted: January 08, 2014 at 04:04 PM (#4633794)
73 voters so far
   133. DL from MN Posted: January 09, 2014 at 01:16 PM (#4634615)
Closes tomorrow
   134. DL from MN Posted: January 10, 2014 at 11:36 AM (#4635634)
Wrapping this up today. Last chance
   135. DL from MN Posted: January 10, 2014 at 03:22 PM (#4635882)
Less than 2 hours left
   136. Davo Dozier Posted: January 10, 2014 at 03:26 PM (#4635886)
I've been struggling for weeks, but just can't cast that vote for Brett Butler!
   137. Rickey! On a blog from 1998. With the candlestick. Posted: January 10, 2014 at 03:35 PM (#4635894)
Damn. I really don't want to support Brett Butler, but he helps my "need more CFs" process.
   138. Random Transaction Generator Posted: January 10, 2014 at 04:40 PM (#4635929)
Kevin Brown
Jeff Kent
Edgar Martinez
Fred McGriff
Mike Mussina
Rafael Palmeiro
Sammy Sosa
Dave Stieb
Larry Walker
Lou Whitaker
   139. DL from MN Posted: January 10, 2014 at 04:48 PM (#4635936)
Looking for ballot #75
   140. Scott Ross Posted: January 10, 2014 at 05:02 PM (#4635947)
Kevin Brown
Jeff Kent
Kenny Lofton
Edgar Martinez
Mike Mussina
Rafael Palmeiro
Sammy Sosa
Lou Whitaker

Too late?
   141. DL from MN Posted: January 10, 2014 at 05:10 PM (#4635951)
Closed
   142. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: January 12, 2014 at 08:19 PM (#4637331)
I missed this. Cool idea.
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