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Sunday, May 29, 2005

Billy Herman

Billy Herman

Eligible in 1953.

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: May 29, 2005 at 12:24 AM | 13 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: May 29, 2005 at 12:54 AM (#1368858)
I think there is enough peak and career there for him to be a HoMer, IMO.
   2. sunnyday2 Posted: May 29, 2005 at 03:10 AM (#1369043)
I am not at all clear where Herman will end up on my ballot or whether he's a HoMer. But he will end up on my ballot, soon if not in 1953. I say that because I know that he is now the best available 2B, and he will rank ahead of Larry Doyle who has been on (and off) my ballot for 20-25 years. So if Doyle is generally a #11-12-13-15-17 over the years, Herman will at least be #10, maybe higher. I also think he will rank ahead of Doerr and Gordon when their time comes.
   3. Michael Bass Posted: May 29, 2005 at 03:20 AM (#1369063)
Man, as I go through these threads, I can't help but think that a whole lotta guys from this 1953 class are going to be in the HOM in the long run. It may take a while, but a *lot* of these guys are going to have a lot of supporters.
   4. Michael Bass Posted: May 29, 2005 at 03:38 AM (#1369089)
The last of the major 1953 white candidates I've looked at, he's right in the mix with Jennings and Ferrell for the first post-Dickey/Greenberg slots (I have yet to rank the top Negro League newbies). Like John said, lots of peak and career.
   5. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: May 29, 2005 at 01:20 PM (#1369551)
It may take a while, but a *lot* of these guys are going to have a lot of supporters.

I agree, Michael. It's one of the strongest classes to date.
   6. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: May 29, 2005 at 01:40 PM (#1369560)
Is there that much difference between Herman and Hack?
   7. karlmagnus Posted: May 29, 2005 at 02:09 PM (#1369592)
Herman and Hack appear quite close, Herman a little better, but low in consideration set, and well off the bottom of my ballot. 112 OPS+ pretty undistinguished even for a 2B.
   8. Michael Bass Posted: May 29, 2005 at 04:25 PM (#1369755)
Is there that much difference between Herman and Hack?

Well the starting point as always is hitting, and Hack does have the edge there:

Hack 119 OPS+/.296 EQA
Herman 112 OPS+/.283 EQA

But every single other thing about their games edges to Herman.

Defensive Position:

Herman was 2B, Hack was 3B. By this point, 2B had passed 3B on the defensive scale.

Defensive Skill:

Hack: B- Win Shares, -15 FRAA
Herman: B+ Win Shares, 65 FRAA

Career length:

I would rate Herman as having between 10-12 productive major league seasons. Hack between 8-11.

In more raw terms, Herman had about 100 more PAs than Hack, and that's before the war credit we're about to get to.

War Credit:

Herman deserves a smidge (though not very much, as he was washed up after one season when he came back) of war credit. Hack, meanwhile, didn't go, and needs a negative adjustment.

Peak:

Herman's 35-37 combined the best hitting of his career with high quality defense. Hack was never able to combine the two, as his best hitting years came later in his career when his defense had headed south. Also, if you use WARP, his best year came in 1945, a year which sticks out like crazy and is a major advertisement for hitting WARP3's 1944 and 1945.

It all adds up to about a 10/20-ish slot difference on my ballot; that's not as much as you might think, once you get to about 6 or 7, everyone's very close to each other. Just in this case, it means Herman will be between 3 and 5, while Hack will be in the 20ish range.
   9. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: May 29, 2005 at 04:39 PM (#1369779)
I have decided to give Herman about 45 WS for 144 and 1945. He had 27 WS in 1943 (I actually discount this to 24) and 20 in 1946. I think that a four year stint of 27,23,22,20 is reasonable and maybe a little conservative. These adjustment gives him 340 career WS (+45 for 44-45 and -3 for 1943). It helps his prime but, believe it or not hurts his peak a bit since I like to measure peak as WS above a certain point and the 1943 deduction hurts him a bit.

Still, I agree with Michael that Herman was better than Hack. More career, more good years, a bit better prime. I have Hack's peak as slightly better and he was the better offensive player, meaning that some of Herman's advantage is derived from defensive stats that can be fishy at times. They are both going to be near each other on my ballot AND they will be near Cupid Childs, who was #8 in 1952. Right now I am thinking it will go Herman, Hack, Childs, but that could change.

I will put what I am doing to Stan Hack on his thread.
   10. DavidFoss Posted: May 29, 2005 at 05:47 PM (#1369933)
Herman was 2B, Hack was 3B. By this point, 2B had passed 3B on the defensive scale.

Still pretty close, no? Their careers were right in the transition era.
   11. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: May 29, 2005 at 06:07 PM (#1369984)
Still pretty close, no? Their careers were right in the transition era.

Right. Third base was evolving into the Mathews/Schmidt model, but wasn't quite there yet.
   12. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: May 29, 2005 at 07:25 PM (#1370199)
According to Bill james the switch happened right around 1920, when double plays became more common. Maybe 3B had yet to become an offensive position like it was in the latter half of the 20th century but defensively it was no longer as important as 2B during Herman and Hack's time.
   13. OCF Posted: May 30, 2005 at 02:38 AM (#1371097)
As an offensive player, I have Herman nowhere near Hack. I actually have him as essentially indistinguishable on offense with Tony Lazzeri, and if you're going to go there, then why not Johnny Evers?

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