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Hall of Merit
— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best

Sunday, June 22, 2008

Election Results: Top Keystone Sackers…Collins, Hornsby, Morgan, Lajoie, Gehringer and Robinson!

With 98% of all possible points, Eddie Collins claimed the #1 spot among all Hall of Merit second basemen.

Nearby with a terrific 95% himself, Rogers Hornsby is viewed as second best at the position by our electorate.

Impressive with 90%, Joe Morgan owns third place among the group.

At 87%, Nap Lajoie’s fourth-place finish was a strong one indeed.

Charlie Gehringer won 5th place with 78%, while Jackie Robinson was the final player over 75% with his 77%.

As for the numbers below, since my usual ballot counter only works for no more than 20 candidates, I couldn’t use that one and had to replace it with my old one. Hence, the mess that you see before you.

EDIT: Fixed, no mess (JD - 6/24/2008)

RK  Player               1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 TOTAL
 1. Eddie Collins       17  6  2                                                        515
 2. Rogers Hornsby       6 14  5                                                        501
 3. Joe Morgan           2  5  8 10                                                     474
 4. Nap Lajoie                10 14        1                                            457
 5. Charlie Gehringer               12  9  3  1                                         407
 6. Jackie Robinson               1 11  8  3  1  1                                      405
 7. Bobby Grich                         5  3  6  5  4  2                                344
 8. Rod Carew                           1  7  4  4  3  4  2                             329
 9. Ryne Sandberg                       1  2  4  7  2  6  3                             313
10. Frankie Frisch                   1  1  2  5  4  5  3  1  1  1    1                  311
11. Ross Barnes                      1     4  3  2  6  3  1  3  1        1              299
12. Bid McPhee                                      3  1  3  4  3  2  4  3       2      194
13. Billy Herman                                       2  5  2  2  6  3  5              191 
14. Lou Whitaker                              1  1  1  3  2     2  4  4  1  2  3  1     184
15. Hardy Richardson                             1     1  3  4  4  2  1  1  2  5     1  171
16. Joe Gordon                                      1     1  4  5  2  2  3  5  1  1     164
17. Bobby Doerr                                           1  3  3  4  3  2  5     4     145
18. Frank Grant                                           1  2  2  3  5  3  4  4  1     140
19. Cupid Childs                                          2  1  2     2  3  3  8  2  2  114
20. Willie Randolph                                          1           2  3  2  8  9   62
21. Nellie Fox                                                     2     2     2  6 13   55
Ballots Cast: 25

Thanks to OCF and Ron for their tallying help!

 

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: June 22, 2008 at 10:20 PM | 26 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: June 23, 2008 at 02:04 AM (#2829385)
hot topics
   2. Blackadder Posted: June 23, 2008 at 02:19 AM (#2829410)
Is it constitutional to consider postseason performance? I don't remember anyone mentioning it in the discussion thread, but if it is constitutional that would provide further support to Collins' placement.
   3. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: June 23, 2008 at 02:26 AM (#2829416)
It's constitutional, Blackadder.
   4. Howie Menckel Posted: June 23, 2008 at 02:06 PM (#2829709)
Let's see if this helps anyone:

Player... Points (total votes for 1st-2nd-3rd-4th out of 25)
1. Eddie Collins............ 515 (17-6-2-0)
2. Rogers Hornsby....... .501 (6-14-5-0)
3. Joe Morgan...............474 (2-5-8-10)
4. Nap Lajoie................457 (0-0-10-14)

5. Charlie Gehringer.......407 (---)
6. Jackie Robinson........405 (0-0-0-1)

7. Bobby Grich..............344
8. Rod Carew................329
9. Ryne Sandberg.........313
10.Frankie Frisch..........311
11.Ross Barnes............299

12. Bid McPhee............194
13. Billy Herman...........191
14. Lou Whitaker..........184
15. Hardy Richardson....171
16. Joe Gordon.............164
17. Bobby Doerr............145
18. Frank Grant............140
19. Cupid Childs...........114

20. Willie Randolph........62
21. Nellie Fox...............55
   5. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: June 23, 2008 at 02:49 PM (#2829760)
Thanks, Howie.

I'm going to have the same problem with the shortstops, but only worse.
   6. OCF Posted: June 23, 2008 at 03:50 PM (#2829828)
I finally got around to adding in the last two ballots, and I can confirm the totals as given by John and re-presented by Howie. The average consensus score (on my -100 to 100 scale used for these) was 89, indicative of very high agreement. 23 of the 23 ballots had consensus scores between 87 and 92. The two exceptions were the last two cast: Joe D. at 83 and EricC at 77. Eric's ballot in particular seemed to be in a contrarian mode - or perhaps more to the point, an anti-Cooperstown mode. (Grich not just ahead of Sandberg and Carew but even ahead of Gehringer; Whitaker ahead of Sandberg; Fox, Doerr, and Gordon ahead of Frisch.)

Robinson was ahead of Gehringer until Joe's vote, which had Gehringer 5th and Robinson 9th.
   7. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: June 24, 2008 at 07:44 PM (#2831071)
What's up with the screen being so wide . . .
   8. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: June 24, 2008 at 08:11 PM (#2831109)
Wow, John and I must have edited at exactly the same time a few minutes ago, lol. I saved it, then his update appeared. I think mine is neater, so I re-edited it.
   9. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: June 24, 2008 at 08:42 PM (#2831152)
I'm really surprised at how poorly Whitaker did.
   10. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: June 24, 2008 at 08:43 PM (#2831154)
I think I was his best friend - and Jackie's worst enemy, which is strange since I've always been a big fan, forgetting the reasons everyone else loves him. He died two days before I was born!
   11. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: June 24, 2008 at 11:00 PM (#2831232)
Wow, John and I must have edited at exactly the same time a few minutes ago, lol. I saved it, then his update appeared. I think mine is neater, so I re-edited it.


Yeah, that was me. :-)
   12. Chris Cobb Posted: June 24, 2008 at 11:11 PM (#2831242)
As with first base, the division of the HoM second basemen into tiers is very clear. We may disagree on order within the tiers, but on the tiers themselves there is very high consensus, such that the space between tiers is larger than the space within them.

Tier 1 -- 48 points top to bottom: Collins, Hornsby, Morgan, Lajoie

[50 point gap]

Tier 2 -- 2 points top to bottom: Gehringer, Robinson

[60 point gap]

Tier 3 -- 45 points top to bottom: Grich, Carew, Sandberg, Frisch, Barnes

[105 point gap!]

Tier 4 -- 54 points top to bottom: McPhee, Herman, Whitaker, Richardson, Gordon, Doerr, Grant

[26 point gap]

Tier 5 -- Childs

[52 pont gap}

Tier 6 -- 7 points top to bottom: Randolph, Fox
   13. OCF Posted: June 24, 2008 at 11:30 PM (#2831261)
I'm really surprised at how poorly Whitaker did.

How is that surprising? On the one hand, we've got someone who didn't even get a second look from the Hall of Fame, and we're saying he's 14th out of 21 elected candidates, ahead of Gordon and Doerr, way ahead of Fox, way ahead of Mazeroski and Lazzeri and Evers. On the other hand, how could we have ranked him higher. Chris's post has the key: can you argue that he should have been Tier 3? That is so closely comparable to Grich, Carew, Sandberg, and Frisch that a significant fraction of the electorate should have had him ahead of most of that group? (OK, I admit that comparing him to that group is not ridiculous.)
   14. OCF Posted: June 24, 2008 at 11:30 PM (#2831262)
I'm really surprised at how poorly Whitaker did.

How is that surprising? On the one hand, we've got someone who didn't even get a second look from the Hall of Fame, and we're saying he's 14th out of 21 elected candidates, ahead of Gordon and Doerr, way ahead of Fox, way ahead of Mazeroski and Lazzeri and Evers. On the other hand, how could we have ranked him higher. Chris's post has the key: can you argue that he should have been Tier 3? That is so closely comparable to Grich, Carew, Sandberg, and Frisch that a significant fraction of the electorate should have had him ahead of most of that group? (OK, I admit that comparing him to that group is not ridiculous.)
   15. Howie Menckel Posted: June 25, 2008 at 01:15 AM (#2831520)
Whitaker had some platoon issues, and not such a great fielder the 2nd half of his career, iirc.

I believe Trammell was a great fielder for far longer, yes?
   16. Chris Cobb Posted: June 25, 2008 at 02:39 AM (#2831718)
Chris's post has the key: can you argue that he should have been Tier 3?

My own system sees Grich, Carew, Frisch, and Barnes as Tier 3, with Sandberg and Whitaker at the head of Tier 4, just ahead of McPhee.

I was a moderate friend of Whitaker, placing him 12th.

I think the electorate was a little overenthusiastic about Sandberg and a little underenthusiastic about Whitaker, which is to say the voting is tilted a bit more toward peak than toward career. By the standards of our current electorate, Joe is definitely a career voter, so he brings Whitaker in a bit above the majority of the electorate.
   17. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: June 25, 2008 at 03:06 AM (#2831792)
Whitaker has one of the flattest career shapes we've considered. He would not be close to making an all-peak HoM.
   18. sunnyday2 Posted: June 25, 2008 at 03:17 AM (#2831829)
Thus of course I had him at #20.

I think the real oddity of the results is Sandberg behind Carew. I mean, through #11, tiers 1-2-3. After that it's just a monumental mess. Not to say it's wrong (or right), but I mean howinthehell do you compare McPhee and Richardson and Grant to Herman or Whitaker. Dartboard. I mean, I disagree with a bunch of the results below #11, but it's hard to get in a lather about it because we was all just guessin.'

But Carew over Sandberg feels pretty wrong-ish to me, and I watched the Twins opener (I mean in 1961) when Pete Ramos 3 hit the Yankees and the Twins won 5-0 on their way to 7th place, and have been watching the Twins for the 47 years since. Carew is over-rated, I'm sorry. In pretty much the same way Ernie Banks is over-rated.
   19. Chris Cobb Posted: June 25, 2008 at 03:39 AM (#2831852)
Carew is over-rated, I'm sorry. In pretty much the same way Ernie Banks is over-rated.

So why are you willing to overrate Banks that way, but not Carew? Or have you dropped Banks from where he was on your prelim (#5)?

I can't debate meaningfully an assessment of Carew that uses "I saw him play" evidence instead of statistics. You saw what you saw.

But the numbers say that Carew was quite a bit more valuable offensively than Banks at his peak (better OPS+ in a DH league, plus excellent baserunning vs. indifferent baserunning) and a lot better than Banks over his career as a whole (131 OPS+ vs. 122 for Banks). Banks as a shortstop was surely more valuable defensively than Carew as a second basemen, but both were indifferent fielders at those positions. So how does Banks' fabulous peak get him to #5 on your shortstop ballot vs. Carew's #11 placement on your 2B ballot?

If your placement of Carew is based on what you saw and not on his numbers, then it's not surprising that you see his ranking as wrong, because the numbers that most of the electorate has to rely on make it out that Carew's peak was awesome, and while he was no world-beater at first base, he was a whole lot better there than Ernie Banks was, which makes a difference to voters who look at a whole career. And Carew was a far better hitter than Sandberg (131 OPS+ vs. 114 for their careers). Sandberg's defense closes the gap, but no way does it put him way ahead of Carew.
   20. Paul Wendt Posted: June 25, 2008 at 09:03 PM (#2832372)
But Carew over Sandberg feels pretty wrong-ish to me, and I watched the Twins opener (I mean in 1961) when Pete Ramos 3 hit the Yankees and the Twins won 5-0 on their way to 7th place, and have been watching the Twins for the 47 years since. Carew is over-rated, I'm sorry. In pretty much the same way Ernie Banks is over-rated.

"Killebrew is under-rated" --Marc sunnyday, sometime next month, anticipated by Paul Wendt

Puckett is up in December in the regular 2009 election.
   21. sunnyday2 Posted: June 25, 2008 at 09:52 PM (#2832395)
I'm still looking at the SS/Banks thing, which I find to be much more tricky than the 2B thing. I mean I sort of/almost agree with Chris' tiers at 2B. Once you get the tiers, the other stuff seems a bit simpler. At SS just getting the tiers is a bit harder. First, because we have more 19C SS than 2B. Second, we have more NeL SS than 2B. And third, we have more high peak/short career SS than 2B. So I'm looking at Banks. Still as a peak voter, it's hard not to prefer Banks' SS peak to Carew's 1B peak.
   22. Howie Menckel Posted: June 25, 2008 at 11:46 PM (#2832516)
Well, Carew was at 2B for the first 3 years of his major peak...
   23. sunnyday2 Posted: June 26, 2008 at 01:58 AM (#2832796)
Not for his MVP year, however. Banks at least was MVP as a SS, and Sandberg as a 2B.
   24. Paul Wendt Posted: July 02, 2009 at 10:23 PM (#3240938)
The sharp demarcation between first eleven and next ten 2Bmen may be the most remarkable result in this series of special elections. 105 points is more than four rungs on the "average ballot".

For anyone who is roughly in agreement, or rashly willing to speak for the collective:

Do Grich, Carew, Sandberg, Frisch, and Barnes --ranks 7 to 11 in here-- roughly match Davis, Dahlen, Yount, Appling, and Wright --ranks 5 to 9 among the shortstops?
Meanwhile, do all the shortstops from Cronin down to Glasscock or Ward, ranks 10 to 18 or 19, lie within the gap here, with Glasscock and Ward roughly matching McPhee and Herman, the leaders of the "next ten" secondbasemen?

Reference: Election Results: shortstops
   25. Howie Menckel Posted: July 03, 2009 at 10:37 PM (#3241634)
At a glance, both of those comments appear quite plausible....
   26. DL from MN Posted: July 06, 2009 at 01:21 PM (#3243125)
I'll just comment on my own rankings. I have

Dahlen/Davis
Appling
Carew/Frisch/Grich
Yount/Wright
Sandberg
Barnes

Dahlen/Davis are clearly ahead of the pack, then Appling. Carew to Wright are pretty close.
   27. DL from MN Posted: July 06, 2009 at 01:28 PM (#3243129)
On the 2nd half I have McPhee around Cronin (both ahead of Yount actually but I'm way below consensus on Yount) with Glasscock and Ward (and Lundy) ahead of the Herman/Doerr/Gordon/etc 2B. I have Joe Sewell in with that group.

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