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Monday, November 28, 2005

Marvin Williams

Eligible in 1967.

Born/Died: 12 Feb 1920 - 23 Dec. 2000

Career: 1943-1950

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: November 28, 2005 at 03:12 AM | 27 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: November 28, 2005 at 03:42 AM (#1749045)
Too short of a career without a great peak or prime, he did have the honor of obtaining a tryout with the BoSox in 1945.
   2. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: December 01, 2005 at 12:01 AM (#1753974)
MARVIN WILLIAMS MLES

YEAR LG AGE PO  AVG  OBP  SLG    G   PA   AB    H   TB  BB ops+ sfws
--------------------------------------------------------------------
1943 NL 20  No MLE Credit
1944 NL 21  2B .313 .384 .409  134  523  469  147  192  54 123  20.4
1945 NL 22  2B .318 .373 .507  145  552  508  162  257  45 143  27.6
1946 NL 23  2B .305 .370 .462  139  535  485  148  224  50 135  23.2
1947 NL 24  2B .298 .364 .469  131  519  470  140  220  49 120  22.3
1948 NL 25  2B .282 .354 .466  137  531  478  135  223  53 120  21.6
1949 NL 26  2B .291 .366 .427  111  473  424  123  181  50 112  17.7
1950 NL 27  2B .223 .291 .292  110  421  385   86  112  36  54   6.5
1951 NL 28  2B .275 .350 .451  147  572  513  141  231  59 114  21.9
1952 NL 29  2B .320 .401 .546  125  497  438  140  239  59 161  28.2
1953 NL 30  2B .302 .370 .448  116  451  407  123  182  44 112  18.7
1954 NL 31  2B .306 .385 .451  109  431  382  117  172  49 121  18.6
1955 NL 32  2B .272 .357 .423  156  618  545  148  230  73 108  22.0
1956 NL 33  2B .272 .331 .432  144  548  504  137  218  44 104  19.0
1957 NL 34  2B .231 .298 .309  134  513  469  108  145  44  64   9.1
1958 NL 35  2B .260 .332 .382  146  565  511  133  195  55  89  16.3
1959 NL 36  2B .266 .363 .472  122  492  427  114  202  65 121  20.1
1960 NL 37  2B .245 .310 .386  101  385  352   86  136  34  90  10.3
1961    38  No MLE Credit            
====================================================================
TOTAL          .282 .354 .433 2205 8627 7765 2188 3360 862 111 323.4

Williams has two whole-cloth years due to the war. I usue the usual surrounding-seasons-average method to come up with them.
   3. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: December 01, 2005 at 12:03 AM (#1753979)
Williams is quite a bit like Bus Clarkson. Not quite the hitter, but he's got a similarly nice looking career. I'd compare him to someone like Lou Whitaker: pretty good at everything.
   4. sunnyday2 Posted: December 01, 2005 at 12:06 AM (#1753984)
Who the devil is Marvin Williams? Did he actually play baseball or just in the MLEs? Can somebody post a real record for him? Thanks.
   5. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: December 01, 2005 at 12:21 AM (#1754004)
Marvin Williams baseball records. You ever heard that Johnny Cash song "I've been everywhere?" He been nowhere compared to Marv Williams!

NEGRO LEAGUES               
YEAR LG  TM  AGE PO TMG   G  AB  H TB 2B 3B HR SB BB  K  AVG  SLG
1943 NNL PHI 20  2B 38             
1944 NNL PHI 21  2B 40  154  52 78  8  3  4  2          .338 .507
1945 NNL PHI 22  2B 40   15  56 22 41  1  3  4  1       .393 .732
1949 NAL PHI 26  OF             
1950 NAL CLE 27  2B 42   22  84 21 27  4  1  0  1       .250 .321
                 
MEXICO                 
YEAR LG  TM  AGE PO      TMG   G  AB   H  TB 2B 3B HR SB BB  K  AVG  SLG
1945 MXL MEX 22  2B       90  51 221  80 140 18  6 10  7 18 14 .362 .634
1948 MXL MEX 25  2B 1B    88  78 302  99 176 13 11 14  8 41 26 .328 .583
1949 MXL JAL 26  2B       84   3  12   7  11  1  0  1  0  2  0 .583 .917
1951 MXL MEX 28  INF OF   84  80 296  95 159 18  5 12  8 49 33 .322 .537
1953 MXL MEX 30  2B       71  40 153  57  81 12  3  2 11 28  9 .374 .529
1959 MXL 2tm 36  1B OF   144 109 378 117 222 14  2 29  6 74 52 .310 .587
                 
VENEZUELA                
YEAR LG TM      AGE PO      TMG   G  AB   H  TB 2B 3B HR SB BB  K  AVG  SLG
1947 VZ PASTORA 24  2B             
                 
PCL                 
YEAR LG  TM  AGE PO      TMG  G  AB  H TB 2B 3B HR SB BB  K  AVG  SLG
1950 PCL SAC 27  2B      200 38 120 30 54  4  1  6  3 11 19 .250 .450
1955 PCL SEA 32  1B 2B   172 35 117 27 52  6  2  5  1 21 10 .231 .444
                 
NORTHWEST LEAGUE              
YEAR LG  TM  AGE PO TMG   G  AB  H   TB 2B 3B HR SB BB  K  AVG  SLG
1954 NWL VAN 31  2B 168 119 456 164 274 32  9 20 15       .357 .601
                                  
ARIZONA-TEXAS LEAGUE              
YEAR LG   TM  AGE PO    TMG   G  AB   H  TB 2B 3B HR SB BB  K  AVG  SLG
1952 AZTX CHU 29  2B 3B 144 117 397 159 339 27  9 45 10       .401 .854
                 
GULF COAST LEAGUE              
YEAR LG  TM  AGE PO TMG  G  AB   H  TB 2B 3B HR SB BB  K  AVG  SLG
1953 GCL LAR 30  OF     23  86  24  46  7  3  3 0        .279 .535
                 
SALLY LEAGUE               
YEAR LG  TM  AGE PO TMG  G  AB   H  TB 2B 3B HR SB BB  K  AVG  SLG
1955 SAL CLB 32  3B     97 351 115 195 18  7 16  1       .328 .556
                 
TEXAS LEAGUE               
YEAR LG  TM  AGE PO                  TMG  G  AB   H  TB 2B 3B HR SB BB  K  AVG   SLG
1956 TEX TUL 33  2b52 1b52 3b37 of11 154 144 534 172 300 36  7 26 1 68 59 .322  .562
1957 TEX TUL 34  3b58 of38 2b24 1b17 154 134 466 118 171 23  3  8 2 61 52 .253  .367
1958 TEX TUL 35  1b144               152 144 524 154 250 33  3 19 2 68 63 .294  .477
1959 TEX VIC 36  PH                        5   5   2   5  0  0  1 0       .400 1.000
1960 TEX 2tm 37  1B 3B OF            144  94 297  83 151 13  2 17 0       .280  .508
1961 TEX 2tm 38  3B 1B               116 354  98 148  16  2 10  2         .277 .418
                 
PRWL                 
YEAR LG   TM  AGE PO TMG  G  AB   H TB 2B 3B HR SB BB  K  AVG   SLG
1944 PRWL PON 21  2B  39 26  90  34 45        1          .378 
1949 PRWL PON 26  2B  80 52 183  44 60  8  1  2          .240 .328
                 
CWL                 
YEAR LG  TM  AGE PO TMG  G  AB   H TB 2B 3B HR SB BB  K  AVG   SLG
1947 CWL LEO 24  2B  91 12  42  12 13  1  0  0  2       .286  .310
                 
MXWL                 
YEAR LG  TM  AGE PO TMG  G  AB  H  TB 2B 3B HR SB BB  K  AVG  SLG
1957 MXW VER 34  2B  84 66 232 77 132 14                .332 .569
                 
VZWL                 
YEAR LG  TM AGE PO TMG  G  AB  H  TB 2B 3B HR SB BB  K  AVG  SLG
1946 VZW ?  23  SS                   13      
   6. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: December 05, 2005 at 02:36 PM (#1761409)
You ever heard that Johnny Cash song "I've been everywhere?"

Hank Snow is very depressed that you didn't mention him, too. :-)
   7. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: December 05, 2005 at 02:43 PM (#1761411)
Sorry, Hank!

Williams probably merits a close look from the electorate. He could very well be a better candidate than anyone might have thought. Seems to have good career value plus decent peak value while playing a key defensive position.
   8. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: December 05, 2005 at 03:04 PM (#1761422)
"Marv's Been Everywhere"

I was totin' my bat along the long dusty Northern League road
When along came a team bus painted in green and gold
If your goin' to Grand Forks, Mack with me you can ride
And so I climbed into a seat and then I settled down inside
He asked me if I'd seen a road with so much dust and sand
And I said, "Listen! I've traveled every road in this here land!"

I've hit everywhere, man
I've hit everywhere, man
In Mexican stadia bare, man
Homered in the mountain air, man
Hitting - I've had my share, man
I've played everywhere

Played in:
Hilldale
Homestead
Fargo
Nagshead
Nuevo York
New Laredo
Pastora
Columbia
Topeka
Victoria
Jalisco
Idaho
Ponce
San Jose
Veracruz
Santa Cruz
Walla Walla
Chihuahua
Venezuela
I even faced Valenzuela

I've hit everywhere, man
I've hit everywhere, man
In Mexican stadia bare, man
Homered in the mountain air, man
Hitting - I've had my share, man
I've played everywhere....
   9. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: December 05, 2005 at 03:06 PM (#1761424)
Great job, Eric!

Just to toot my own horn, I've done the whole song at karaoke a few times...and without screwing up the words or running out of breath! :-)
   10. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: July 10, 2006 at 06:15 PM (#2094299)
I partially wanted to bump the thread (worth it for the song alone), and also to make a few points:

1)John, I didn't see this on the list of Negro League players (found it in the Archives).

2)What 2 years did he miss due to war?

3)Was the Texas-Arizona League one of those ridiculously high-scoring ones in the thin mountain air? Those numbers might need to be deflated a bit.

4)Was he ever in an MLB farm system? Even Clarkson got a "tryout".

But, in any case, he does have a similar argument to Clarkson, and somehow I'd missed him.
   11. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: July 10, 2006 at 06:42 PM (#2094329)
1)John, I didn't see this on the list of Negro League players (found it in the Archives).

I'll look into that later, Marvin.
   12. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: July 10, 2006 at 07:17 PM (#2094359)
I'll look into that later, Marvin.

Fine, I'll be waiting with this horrible pain in the diodes on my left side.
   13. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: July 10, 2006 at 08:20 PM (#2094401)
2)What 2 years did he miss due to war?
Oddly, 1946-1947 appear to be the two years. I don't have Riley or anyone handy to double check, but those are the years that there is simply no data for in my e-files. I don't have his story memorized, but I suspect he must have been in the service, because otherwise I think I would have queried everyone to see if he'd been injured, in prison, or something else that would have caused him to fall off the map.

3)Was the Texas-Arizona League one of those ridiculously high-scoring ones in the thin mountain air? Those numbers might need to be deflated a bit.
I don't know. And I don't have any sense of the league's cumulative totals either. As is the case in all instances where I don't know the origiating league's totals, I've used the NL's totals for comparison purposes (you gotta use something). Obviously, this would bump him up a lot if his league were particularly offense-happy. My discount factor for the AZ-TX league is particularly steep because I couldn't find much on it, and what I found gave me the impression that the league wasn't a high-quality one, .80/.64 for avg/slg. Most of the discount factors fall into the .85-.9 range.

4)Was he ever in an MLB farm system? Even Clarkson got a "tryout".
As noted earlier in the thread, Marv got a tryout with the BoSox alongside Jackie and Jethroe. As far as I know his highest classification was the PCL, but he played there in two non-consecutive years for two different teams (see above). It appears that he was never invited into any organization.
   14. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: July 10, 2006 at 08:50 PM (#2094422)
I think Steve Treder did a couple of pieces on those minor leagues at THT some time back. I'll try and find it tonight.
   15. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: July 12, 2006 at 08:33 PM (#2097046)
UPDATE

Applying the NgL averages from the new HOF numbers, Williams gets a neglible boost:

old MLEs: .282/.354/.433/111/323.4

new MLEs: .282/.355/.435/112/326.1
   16. rawagman Posted: July 13, 2006 at 08:49 AM (#2097368)
But how was his defense?
   17. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: July 13, 2006 at 01:14 PM (#2097429)
For he and Clarkson I assumed average defense, which seems about right given their reputations.
   18. sunnyday2 Posted: September 03, 2006 at 04:02 AM (#2166174)
bump

Do people think the projected 326 WS is not credible? Or that a 326 WS 2B is not ballot-worthy?
   19. Juan V Posted: September 03, 2006 at 04:58 AM (#2166203)
I took a look, and I am well impressed. He looks ballot-worthy, at least to me. Unless you really, really don´t like the projection, take another look at him.
   20. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: September 03, 2006 at 02:11 PM (#2166287)
As the projector, I can tell you that there's soft spots in the projection where I don't have league totals or park factors or anything. But on the other hand, that wasn't a problem for other candidates. This is why I've frequently cautioned that we be careful to not take these as the Bible. In other words CYA for me.

That said, Marvin hit like the dickens everywhere he went, so I'm not inclined to think there's too too much volatility here. The man could hit. Like Clarkson his peak's a little soft for me, and so both he and Buster end up just outside my spheres of electability and ballotworthiness.

The big thing for me, however, is Sunny's question. Are people seeing this projection as realistic or not. Feedback is appreciated.
   21. sunnyday2 Posted: September 03, 2006 at 02:59 PM (#2166305)
The big caveat to the Williams, Scales and Clarkson (oh, and Artie Wilson) debates being, of course, that Luke Easter is the elephant in the room of the "lost generation."
   22. sunnyday2 Posted: September 03, 2006 at 03:07 PM (#2166308)
And PPS. to the Williams and Scales discussions, it does appear that Williams was clearly better, and both were career 2Bs. Wilson was a SS and Clarkson a SS-3B type so the other comps are more subtle. I'm inclined right now to rank them:

1. Williams, 2B 323 WS, 111 OPS+ with peaks of 28 WS and 161 OPS+
2. Clarkson, SS-3B 315 WS, 120 OPS+ with peaks of 32 and 159
3. Wilson, SS 262 WS, 95 OPS+ with peaks of 29 and 126
4. Scales, 2B, OPS+ 109 with peak of 144, no WS available (10 seasons above 100 OPS+ versus Williams 13 years)

They might all be very close, though they will probably string out over a good 40-50 places on my top 100 and Scales (and even Wilson) might miss altogether. But as we get into the "backlog years," I wanted to consider these guys whom I never really looked at very closely. Sure, they're not HR Johnson or John Beckwith or Frank Grant, but their competition is not exactly Arky Vaughan or HR Baker or Charlie Gehringer either.

Luke Easter, OTOH, looks like Cepeda or Cash, and for the short periods we know for sure about not unlike Mize and Greenberg.
   23. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: September 04, 2006 at 07:37 PM (#2167284)
Here's the Treder article I was talking about before. It isn't about the Arizona-Texas league, although it's mentioned parenthetically as one of the high-scoring leagues in that neck of the woods.
   24. DL from MN Posted: September 05, 2006 at 04:04 PM (#2168125)
Are Marvin Williams best 8 seasons ahead of Fregosi? Fregosi has a pretty good top 8 seasons. Unfortunately he doesn't have much outside of that. Perhaps Marvin Williams has that added extra bulk Fregosi lacks.
   25. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: September 05, 2006 at 06:48 PM (#2168287)
Quick digression here since Marvin's getting a lot of attention.

Thanks to the tip on the Treder article, I've made a better esimation for Williams's 1952 season. I retained the QoP discount of 20% (the article noted it was a Class D league), but I revised the league averages. Treder gives the leaguewide AVG and R/G totals for one of those down-west leagues, and I just used them as a simple guideline...and improvement over having no info on their quality. Figuring those leagus all played at altitude and likely had similar high-octane R/Gs, I reverse engineered runs created from a .300 league AVG and a 6.7 R/G. That gets me to league AVG of .300 (duh) and SLG of .464. The NL was at .262/.396. Applying to Williams's numbers changes the line and total as you'll see below. (In 154 notation)

YEAR  VER LG AGE PO  AVG  OBP  SLG    G   PA   AB    H   TB  BB opssfws
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
1952  OLD NL 29  2B .320 .401 .546  125  497  438  140  239  59 161  28.2
1952  
NEW NL 29  2b .280 .356 .458  125  489  438  123  201  51 124  19.5
==========================================================================
TOTAL OLD           .282 .355 .435 2197 8600 7735 2185 3367 864 112 326.1
TOTAL 
NEW           .280 .352 .430 2197 8592 7735 2167 3329 857 110 317.4 


This does reduce Williams's peak a good bit since 1952 previously looked like a very strong season.

Year by year now, this time expressed in 162 notation.

1943 ?
1944 21.5
1945 30.5
1946 24.9*
1947 23.9*
1948 22.7
1949 18.6
1950 6.8
1951 23.0
1952 20.5
1953 19.7
1954 19.5
1955 23.1
1956 20.0
1957 9.6
1958 17.1
1959 21.1
1960 10.8
1961 ?
==========
TOT 333.2

*There's no little or no info for these seasons, so they are composites of previous and surrounding seasons and what's available.

In addition 1o 1946-1947, there are several years and leagues for which I don't have leaguewide averages for, and for which the MLEs substitute the NL averages for lack of better information. And, there are no park factors. Of course, this is true for many, many seasons in many of our MLEs.
   26. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: April 08, 2007 at 04:46 PM (#2329027)
Marvin Williams Re-evaluated

First off, a big tip of the cap to KJOK for locating MiL data that I thought would be forever inaccessible. For instance, did you know the AZ-TX league (much speculated about above in this thread) was a 7.08 R/G league! Which actually is a nice lead-in to the Marv Williams re-eval.

I've worked Williams through my new MLE process. He comes out a little different, though not nearly as dramatically as Clarkson. Which if you look at their careers makes sense. I think Clarkson was a superior player; he played in superior leagues; he posted superior stats; he was a SS/3B, not a 2B/3B/?. That Williams, upon a more granular scrutiny should emerge as not as electable as Clarkson makes a lot of sense. I don't know if anyone will change their mind about Williams either way, but I do think that we now have so much more data on the context of his leagues that we can say with greater certainty that this MLE is significantly more accurate than the previous MLE. The new MiL data and the new NgL data remove the data-based doubts around Williams and help us reveal more of the player he was.

Anyway, other than using the new method, a lot has changed, and here are the key things to know:
-I now have (thanks to KJ) stats for all of the minor leagues and teams Marv played for. For some I have been able to estimate park factors, others not. The influx of data is vitally important since some of his leagues were very high scoring, and a couple very low scoring. For example:
1952 AZ-TX: 7.08
MxL 1945: 5.83
1954 NWL: 5.48
1955 PCL: 3.92
1957 TxL: 3.98

Keep in mind the NL of this era is usually a 4.25-4.50 league.

These run levels are part of the reason that he goes from .280/.352/.430 to .265/.340/.448. The other reason was discussed at length on the Clarkson thread, but to summarize, it's because I'm translating on runs instead of AVG/SLG and applying a more reasonable SLG discount.

-1946 is undocumented, and I have made it up from whole cloth using the neutralized career average.

-1947 he played for Pastora of the VZSL, and no stats are available. I've therefore used the same method.

-On defense, his record is a bit strange. He's clearly a 2B for his early career, but the second half of his career is a mix of 2B, 3B, and 1B. I just made him a 3B for that half of his career, though in this era when 1B was not populated by sluggers, he may have been able to play 1B in MLB. I suspect he's athletic enough to have played 3B, however. I welcome any ideas in this direction.

-Some small stats included below are estimates based on a few seasons of data, thus the GIDP are pretty low (like 5 a year). This data comes solely from Mexico, where they committed more errors (though I'm not precisely sure how many more), and so it's possible that their DP rates were simply lower than MLB's. Take these with salt, though I wanted to retain them since they provide some balast in the RC calculation.

-Marv Williams was a very durable player. In none of his seasons do I see evidence of his having missed more than one third of a season. I only see him missing a third twice. I'm showing him just under 10K PAs. I gave him 4.1 PAs per game, and that means he's around 2416 games played, 134 a year for 18 years---63rd all time (through 2005), right behind Appling, right ahead of Wheat. I think that's optimistic myself, but it's not wild.

-I have done two pieces of career shaping, filling in 1946-1947 and assigning him 4.1 PA per game. However, I think that I would advocate for shaping his final season differently than you'll see below. In the MLE, he's at .262/.344/.409, 13.4 BWS, 99 OPS+ in 512 PA. However, his real-life line is .277/.365/.418 in AA TxL in 408 PA (playing 116 of 143 games). That translates to .255/.337/.385 in 398 PA in the NL of 1961. My routine then adds 114 PA to that at the average of the previous three years weighted against career. I think it would be best to let the translated line stand by itself (projected into the 1961 NL), rather than augmenting it through my usual playing time procedures. That would result in a final line of

1961: .255/.337/.385 in 397 PA, 9.1 bws 2.6 fws 11.7 ws 91 OPS+.

It wouldn't change the career totals all that much:

9791 PA, 8696 AB, 2300 H, 3888 TB, 1022 BB, 1427 RC, .264/.339/.447, 275.9 bws, 71.6, fws 347.6 ws, 110 OPS+

Just that little tweak would take him from 63rd in games to about 90th, between Hooper and Gary Carter.

-Here's the discount schedule I used:
PCL (Class: Open) and NgL (pre-1947): .90
NgL (1950), TxL (Class AA), MxL (Class: N/A, after 1955 Class AA): .825
NWL (Class A) and SAL (Class A): .75
GCL (Class B): .70
AZTX (Class C): .65

Marvin Williams
Revised MLE
version 1.0

year age  pa outs  ab     h   tb   bb sh sb cs hpb gdp   rc  avg  obp  slg
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
1944 21  628  412  556  150  246   66  5  6  2   1   5   92 .270 .347 .443
1945 22  595  397  539  148  258   53  4  9  3   1   5   92 .275 .337 .478
1946 23  539  368  482  119  203   54  4  5  2   1   4   71 .247 .320 .421
1947 24  556  368  493  131  223   59  4  6  2   1   5   82 .266 .342 .453
1948 25  558  372  499  132  231   57  3  9  3   2   7   83 .265 .338 .462
1949 26  555  366  492  132  224   59  4  6  2   1   5   83 .268 .344 .456
1950 27  414  284  370   91  151   41  3  5  2   1   3   53 .246 .318 .407
1951 28  601  391  528  143  241   69  4  9  3   1   6   92 .271 .353 .457
1952 29  520  359  471  118  234   45  3  7  2   1   3   79 .250 .314 .497
1953 30  487  311  425  122  199   58  4 11  3   1   5   79 .287 .369 .468
1954 31  612  400  546  154  259   62  4 12  4   1   5   98 .282 .353 .474
1955 32  613  393  535  148  258   74  5  3  1   1   5  100 .277 .361 .482
1956 33  581  372  517  150  262   59  5  1  0   1   5   99 .290 .361 .506
1957 34  538  368  476  113  165   58  4  2  1   1   4   59 .238 .318 .346
1958 35  594  399  529  136  221   60  5  2  1   1   5   80 .257 .330 .418
1959 36  600  402  534  138  226   61  5  2  1   1   5   82 .258 .331 .423
1960 37  402  274  357   86  154   42  3  1  0   1   3   54 .241 .319 .432
1961 38  512  337  450  118  184   58  4  3  1   1   4   70 .262 .344 .409
==========================================================================
        
9906 6570 8797 2329 3937 1035 73 98 29  23  84 1446 .265 .340 .448

      bws  fws   ws
---------------------
1944 20.5  5.5  25.9
1945 19.4  5.2  24.6
1946 16.2  4.7  20.9
1947 16.3  4.8  21.1
1948 17.1  4.9  22.0
1949 16.8  4.8  21.6
1950  8.6  3.6  12.3
1951 19.6  5.2  24.8
1952 17.9  4.5  22.4
1953 15.7  4.2  20.0
1954 20.5  5.3  25.8
1955 21.7  3.9  25.6
1956 24.1  3.7  27.9
1957  9.7  3.5  13.2
1958 15.7  3.8  19.5
1959 16.2  3.8  20.0
1960 11.1  2.6  13.7
1961 13.4  3.3  16.7
=====================
    
275.9 71.6 347.6

      pa   ab  obp  slg  lgobp lgslg obp
slgops+
----------------------------------------------------
1944 628  556 .347 .443  .335 .376   104  118  121
1945 595  539 .337 .478  .343 .377    98  127  125
1946 539  482 .320 .421  .338 .368    95  114  109
1947 556  493 .342 .453  .349 .406    98  111  109
1948 558  499 .338 .462  .343 .398    99  116  115
1949 555  492 .344 .456  .344 .405   100  112  112
1950 414  370 .318 .407  .347 .418    92   97   89
1951 601  528 .353 .457  .341 .405   104  113  117
1952 520  471 .314 .497  .334 .389    94  128  122
1953 487  425 .369 .468  .345 .427   107  110  117
1954 612  546 .353 .474  .345 .424   102  112  114
1955 613  535 .361 .482  .337 .421   107  114  122
1956 581  517 .361 .506  .331 .417   109  121  130
1957 538  476 .318 .346  .332 .416    96   83   79
1958 594  529 .330 .418  .338 .421    98   99   97
1959 600  534 .331 .423  .336 .418    99  101  100
1960 402  357 .319 .432  .329 .404    97  107  104
1961 512  450 .344 .409  .337 .421   102   97   99
====================================================
    
9906 8797 .340 .448  .339 .406   100  110  110 


Notes to follow.
   27. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: April 08, 2007 at 04:47 PM (#2329029)
Obviously he looks preternaturally consistent in the MLE, and this is partly due to how I fill in playing time. In reality, however, his actual numbers have wild variation in AVG between the .260s and .380s. This is the illusion of the run environments in his leagues at work. He actually appears somewhat more consistent in a neutrallized 4.50 translation:

YEAR  LG REAL TRANS
----------------------
1944 nnl .338 .311
1945 nnl .393 .344
1945 mxl .362 .276
1948 mxl .328 .268
1949 mxl .583 .500
1950 nal .250 .209
1950 pcl .250 .235
1951 mxl .321 .265
1952 azt .401 .248
1953 mxl .373 .306
1953 gcl .279 .221
1954 nwl .360 .277
1955 pcl .231 .236
1955 sal .328 .284
1956 txl .322 .298
1957 txl .253 .239
1958 txl .294 .260
1959 mxl .400 .404
1959 txl .310 .254
1960 txl .279 .238
1961 txl .277 .255 


Note that the .404 in the trans column was in less than 10 games.

Using the SBE, I looked for similar MIs and 3Bs. Using Williams' MLE averages, and comparing them to the NL non-pitcher league averages he is projected into I got these ratios of player to league

Williams 9906 PA 100 AVG 100 OBP 110 SLG

I queried SBE to see what players in baseball history had posted similar ratios to their leagues in over 500 PA. I culled out the throwing infielders, and created a little sim score that looked only at playing time and the three ratios. I assessed 1 point for every 100 PAs of difference and 3 points for every point of difference in the relative averages. A perfect score would be zero, the maximum is around 100. Here's how the sims came out---the lower the sim score the more comparable:

Graig Nettles 24
Tommy Leach 33
Don Money 44
Doug DeCinces 46
Ken Caminiti 49
Cal Ripken 51
Rico Petrocelli 52
Ken Keltner 54
Bill Bradley 56
Miguel Tejada 57
Juan Samuel 65
Sam Wise 66
Ray Boone 76
Jimmy Williams 80

The problem with this list is that most of these guys have 2000 or more fewer PAs. Only Nettles, Leach, and Ripken have careers of more than 7000 PAs (though Money is at 6998.

I decided to also run the list for all players of 8000 or more PAs. I changed the sim score to reflect the more narrow PA distribution with 100 PAs still assessed at one point, but now the variation from Williams in relative averages now worth 2 points each. Perfect score still 0, the maximum is now about 60:

Steve Finley 14
Don Baylor 15
Gary Carter 17
Graig Nettles 17
Tino Martinez 21
Tommy Leach 25
Tim Wallach 32
Wally Pipp 33
Larry Parrish 35
Johnny Callison 37
Lance Parrish 41
Ken Caminiti 42
Ron Gant 42
Cal Ripken 44
Wildfire Schulte 45
Eric Karros 46
Gus Bell 48
Mike Higgins 52

So Williams is hitting like 3rd-tier corner OFs and 1Bs, like one HOF catcher and another possible HOM catcher (I reserve judgment on Lance) as well as some middle-length career 3Bs, and Cal (who is illusory, his rates dragged down by his latter years). Nettles and Leach stand out as potentially important points of comparison here as well. Given that he has little if any defensive reputation, I think it's probably safe to say that these crude comp lists support the notion that he was a hitter first and fielder second. I've made him average in the MLEs, which is my policy in the absence of any oral history, it could be that he should be lower, maybe a C- fielder.

Finally, I personally had two other questions about Williams.
1)What kept him out of MLB after integration?
It's possible that Marv didn't fit the then-current thinking about what an MLB infielder should be like. Dandridge fit that paradigm better, but he was too old. Williams wasn't Kell or Fox or Schoendienst, nor Al Dark. He certainly wasn't Temple, McMillan, or Aparicio either. Nor again Gilliam. But he also wasn't Vern Stephens or Ernie Banks, though he was more like them than the little guys. He was Tony Lazzeri in a league that was forgetting about Tony Lazzeri---the middle infield had, with notable exceptions, become the province of lighter hitters with very good to excellent gloves.

2B between 1947 and 1961 with around 750 games:
Fox, Schoendienst, Avila, Temple, Bolling, Priddy, Martin, Balsingame, Maz, Pete Suder, Billy Gardner, Jackie, Gilliam.

SS between 1947 and 1961 with around 750 games:
Reese, McMillan, Dark, Logan, Charrasquel, Rizzuto, Banks, Groat, DeMaestri, joost, Aparicio, Smalley, Miranda, Hamner, Grammas, Kuenn.

Just for kicks, 3B between 1947 and 1961 with around 750 games:
Yost, Puddin' Head, Mathews, Kell, Rosen, Hoak, Randy Jackson, Boyer, Carey, Hatton, Elliott, Jablonski, Malzone, Billy Cox, Majeski, Freese.

Even with guys like Mathews, Banks, and Rosen in the rolls, there's a lot of poor-to-merely-below-average hitters, and lots of gloves....

I think the big leagues quite possibly had chosen to emphasize other aspects of a 2B's game (gloves and speed), aspects that weren't Williams's strength. And the power-hitting 3B was still kind of novel, and many teams were giving lots of 3B time to below-average hitters. If they even knew he existed, they may have been hesitant to go against the current 2B paradigm for a guy who was black and who they didn't, therefore, necessarily have great scouting on since he'd played in a lot of placees.

2) What kept him from getting into AAA leagues?
I think that Marvin Williams may have kept himself out of these leagues. Look at Williams' teams. Lots of Texas, Arizon, and Mexico. He was born in Houston, and I think Williams may have been a homebody. He'd played in Philadephia and Cleveland in the Negro Leagues, and he jumped to Mexico after just two or three yeras. Maybe he didn't like the north, the far west, the midwest, and he decided that making a good living in the Texas League was vastly preferable to spending summers chasing the last slot on an MLB roster in Milwaukee, Toronto, or Sacramento. The majors then were very white, still probably very racist, very difficult for blacks to get into, more difficult for them to stay in, and very East Coast- and Great Lakes-oriented. It's not always simple to know what motivates people, but knowing nothing about his personality, I think Williams wanted to play near his home.

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