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Wednesday, January 21, 2015

Most Meritorious Player: 1902 Discussion

The upstart American League is quickly becoming as good as the senior circuit. Here is a good site to reference.

No World Series yet but the Pittsburgh Pirates and Philadelphia Athletics win their respective leagues.

Player			SH WS		BBR WAR
Honus Wagner		34.6		7.3
Ed Delahanty		29.8		6.7
Bill Bradley		25.6		6.7
Napoleon Lajoie		21.1		5.1
Tommy Leach		26.3		5.9
Ginger Beaumont		31.0		5.1
Charlie Hickman		23.4		4.9
Lave Cross		26.9		4.4
George Davis		25.6		5.7
Sam Crawford		22.5		4.9
Fred Clarke		27.7		5.0
Fred Tenney		23.7		5.1
Bobby Wallace		22.2		5.1
Jimmy Collins		19.8		4.4
Jimmy Williams		17.7		2.4
Socks Seybold		23.7		4.3
Jesse Burkett		24.2		3.7		
Heinie Peitz		14.6		3.2
Claude Ritchey		16.9		3.8
Jimmy Slagle		22.2		4.4
Fielder Jones		25.5		3.6
Willie Keeler		24.6		4.1
Jimmy Ryan		18.6		3.4
Sammy Strang		25.0		4.0
Buck Freeman		22.0		3.9
Jimmy Scheckard		23.3		3.8
Dan McGann		13.9		3.3
Bill Dahlen		21.9		4.2
Johnny Kling		17.1		3.6
Roy Thomas		25.2		3.2
Jimmy Barrett		21.2		3.1
Ossie Schreckengoest	15.5		2.0
Harry Bemis		11.3		2.4

Pitcher
Rube Waddell		31.5		10.3
Cy Young		38.0		10.1
Jack Taylor		31.2		10.2
Joe McGinnity		24.3		8.5
Noodles Hahn		27.7		9.0
Bill Dinneen		28.4		5.9
Doc White		24.8		7.0
Bill Bernhard		19.7		5.6
Eddie Plank		24.3		6.4
Win Mercer		19.3		5.7
Jack Powell		28.8		6.0
Vic Willis		31.2		8.1
Ed Siever		16.1		5.0
Red Donahue		29.9		4.7
Togie Pittinger		27.6		6.5
Jack Chesbro		25.4		5.3

 

DL from MN Posted: January 21, 2015 at 01:20 PM | 36 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. DL from MN Posted: January 21, 2015 at 01:23 PM (#4885333)
This looks like a fight at the top until you realize that Rube Waddell has 167.7 innings in California that are not counted in these totals. 11-8 with a 2.42 ERA.
   2. DL from MN Posted: January 21, 2015 at 01:44 PM (#4885356)
Rube Foster's rookie year with the Chicago Union Giants. Scant (but poor) data for Home Run Johnson in 1902. No stats for Pete Hill, Frank Grant, Charlie Grant or Bill Monroe. The 1902 seamhead stats consist of one three game series between the top two Chicago teams. Rube Foster pitched better than Home Run Johnson hit but it was 15 K versus 7 BB in 18 IP.

http://www.seamheads.com/NegroLgs/year.php?yearID=1902

Just going by typical aging curves Bill Monroe and Charlie Grant had to be top players. This will keep Monroe off my ballot:

"In 1902, while a member of the Cuban X Giants, [Monroe] had broken his ankle in a late July game at Chester, Pennsylvania and missed the remainder of that season."
   3. DL from MN Posted: January 21, 2015 at 01:51 PM (#4885365)
1902 Prelim

1) Rube Waddell
2) Honus Wagner
3) Cy Young
4) Ed Delahanty
5) Jack Taylor - caught cheating by pitching in front of the mound
6) Bill Bradley
7) Napoleon Lajoie
8) Tommy Leach
9) Ginger Beaumont
10) Charlie Hickman

11-17) Lave Cross, Joe McGinnity, George Davis, Sam Crawford, Fred Clarke, Noodles Hahn, Fred Tenney
   4. DL from MN Posted: January 21, 2015 at 02:34 PM (#4885399)
Lajoie was prohibited from playing in Pennyslvania due to an NL lawsuit which explains the games missed. He had the best rate production by WAR in the league and was just behind Delahanty with offensive rate production.
   5. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: January 21, 2015 at 06:03 PM (#4885599)
Prelim:

1) Rube Waddell
2) Honus Wagner
3) Cy Young
4) Noodles Hahn
5) Jack Taylor
6) Ginger Beaumont
7) Fred Clarke
8) Ed Delahanty
9) Nap Lajoie
10) Tommy Leach
   6. bjhanke Posted: January 22, 2015 at 10:28 PM (#4886364)
If you give Waddell the minor league bonus, he belongs at the top. Essentially, for anyone who doesn't recognize the name, Rube Waddell was Steve Dalkowski. Dalkowski was the guy who Earl Weaver managed for one year in AA ball. He gave the team IQ tests. Dalkowski had a score of 60. Weaver told him to stop trying to throw a curve ball and just chuck it at the 100+ MPH he could get. Dalkowski quit getting hit. However, when the O's promoted Weaver a league, they did not promote Steve. The next manager told Steve to go back to curve balls, and he threw his arm out. Waddell was like that, except that Connie Mack had enough sense to just have him stick with the heater. Neither man had the brains to really throw more than one pitch, but, possibly because they weren't disturbed by excess thoughts, they threw harder than anyone. It's actually Waddell, rather than Walter Johnson, who is the strikeout king of the early 20th century. He was nothing like Walter's quality overall, but he struck out more men than anyone at that time, probably because he just plain threw harder. - Brock Hanke
   7. DL from MN Posted: January 23, 2015 at 02:36 PM (#4886712)
Regarding Negro Leaguers - If we don't put the HoM players who were excluded from baseball (Rube Foster, Pete Hill) on an MMP ballot some time this decade we messed up. I went through all the HoM players who have been covered by the MMP project and every one of them has appeared on an MMP ballot at some time. This is the list of HoM players who have appeared on the least ballots (assuming we have covered their career).

Darrell Evans 2
Early Wynn 2
Goose Gossage 2
Joe Torre 2
Nellie Fox 2
Reggie Smith 2
Rick Reuschel 2
Whitey Ford 2
Hoyt Wilhelm 1
Rollie Fingers 1
Willie Randolph 1

Conversely, 5 ballot appearances typically means you're a HoM player. The only players with 5+ who aren't elected are Dale Murphy (6) and Dave Concepcion (5).
   8. Michael J. Binkley's anxiety closet Posted: January 23, 2015 at 10:33 PM (#4886920)
Since I am incorporating my MMP voting into my regular HoM voting, I've started to jump ahead (and behind) in developing preliminary MMP ballots, subject to change based upon discussion, etc. I actually started back in 1871 and so far I am up to the early 1920's. But as to DL's point, as of now, for the prominent NeL players of the 19 aughts, I actually plan on having Rube Foster atop my 1903 ballot, as well as a 7th place in 1904 and a 10th in 1906. Grant Johnson I have 7th in 1905 and 8th in 1908. And Pete Hill gets two 10th place votes, in 1905 and 1910. All of these are based on the MLEs posted in the Yahoo! Group and/or the player discussion pages.

On to the 1902 preliminary ballot:

1. Rube Waddell (66.08) - if not for Waddell's minor league credit, Denton True would've eked out the top spot
2. Cy Young (50.78)
3. Honus Wagner (46.04) - NL MMP
4. Ed Delahanty (43.73)
5. Jack Taylor (40.54) - NL MMPitcher
6. Bill Bradley (38.66)
7. Noodles Hahn (37.86)
8. Nap Lajoie (36.17)
9. Vic Willis (35.16)
10. Joe McGinnity (34.79)

   9. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: January 24, 2015 at 10:12 AM (#4887067)
Regarding Negro Leaguers - If we don't put the HoM players who were excluded from baseball (Rube Foster, Pete Hill) on an MMP ballot some time this decade we messed up.


I agree, Dan, but we need some type of NeL conversions for the seasons in question. We just can't make it up as we go along.
   10. God Posted: January 26, 2015 at 08:18 AM (#4887875)
If John McGraw's opinion means anything, wasn't this the year he tried to sign Charlie Grant and pass him off as a Native American?
   11. DL from MN Posted: January 26, 2015 at 09:41 AM (#4887910)
In the absence of data I think you have to assume the player had a typical performance. If that player's typical season is top 10 worthy I think they should get a vote.
   12. MrC. Posted: February 01, 2015 at 10:10 AM (#4891058)
I am back (don't all groan at once:-)), but the only way I was able to log in was to register again. I would like to thank Dan for posting my 1901 ballot last week.

The original "free agent" period of the modern period of MLB continued to heat up in 1902 as many more players from the NL jumped to the new AL. The one team that escaped this trend to a large extent was the Pittsburgh Pirates(and as a result also won the 1902 NL championship).

1902 All Star Teams

NL
C Johnny King
1B Fred Tenney
2B Heinie Pietz
3B Tommy Leach
SS Bill Dahlen
OF Honus Wagner
OF Sam Crawford
OF Ginger Beaumont
SP Noodles Hahn
SP Vic Willis
SP Jack Taylor
SP Deacon Phillipe

AL
C Harry Bemis
1B Charlie Hickman
2B Nap Lajoie
3B Bill Bradley
SS Bobby Wallace
OF Jesse Burkett
OF Ed Delahanty
OF Socks Seybold
SP Cy Young
SP Rube Waddell
SP Eddie Plank
SP Jack Powell
   13. MrC. Posted: February 01, 2015 at 02:39 PM (#4891129)
1902 Preliminary Ballot

Batters: Start with RAA (using custom linear weights), adjust for park, position and defense (using DRA) Convert adjusted RAA to wins. Add 60% of normal Runs above replacement to get WARR (wins above reduced replacement). If applicable, any pitching WARR that a position player may have.

Pitchers: Calculate RAA using a pitchers FIP and calculate RAA using a pitcher's RA9.

Calculate RAA, using a blend of RA9 and FIP from above, adjust for quality of opposition and park. Convert adjusted RAA to wins. Add 60% of normal runs above replacement to get WARR (wins above reduced replacement). Add Hitter WARR for overall WARR. As well, a few pitchers have fielding numbers as position players which I take into account.

1. Cy Young 8.01 WARR
2. Rube Waddell 7.48 WARR must consider minor league adjustment for final ballot
3. Honus Wagner 6.80 WARR
4. Ed Delahanty 6.42 WARR
5. Noodles Hahn 6.23 WARR
6. Tommy Leach 6.07 WARR
7. Bill Bradley 6.02 WARR
8. Vic Willis 5.20 WARR
9. Jack Taylor 5.20 WARR
10. Sam Crawford 4.99 WARR

Rest of the top 20
Ginger Beaumont
Jimmy Slagle
Nap Lajoie
Charlie Hickman
Bobby Wallace
Eddie Plank
Fred Clarke
Fred Tenney
Jack Powell
Jesse Burkett
   14. Chris Fluit Posted: February 02, 2015 at 04:43 PM (#4892172)
Lajoie was prohibited from playing in Pennyslvania due to an NL lawsuit which explains the games missed. He had the best rate production by WAR in the league and was just behind Delahanty with offensive rate production.


That prohibition prevented Lajoie from playing in 10 road games (by my count).

   15. Chris Fluit Posted: February 02, 2015 at 04:57 PM (#4892189)
The 2.42 ERA actually drags down his quality a bit (he had a 2.02 in the AL) but those 167 innings more than balance it out.
   16. DL from MN Posted: February 02, 2015 at 05:03 PM (#4892192)
The 2.42 ERA actually drags down his quality a bit


Assuming run scoring environment is the same, sure.
   17. Chris Fluit Posted: February 02, 2015 at 05:13 PM (#4892200)
1902 Prelim- AL Only

1. Rube Waddell, P, Philadelphia Athletics: minor league credit puts him over the top; without it, he'd be in 3rd just ahead of Lajoie
2. Cy Young, P, Boston Americans: this guy was pretty good; they should name an award after him
3. Ed Delahanty, LF, Washington Senators: led the junior circuit in OPS+ and Runs Created with 187 and 125
4. Nap Lajoie, 2B, Cleveland Bronchos: he's in 4th place, with or without credit for lost playing time due to a court decision; 176 OPS+ with +4 fielding at 2B
5. Bill Dinneen, P, Boston Americans: 121 ERA+ isn't much but those 371 innings are pretty impressive
6. Bill Bradley, 3B, Cleveland Bronchos: one of the great defenders of all time (+9 fielding for this season) having one of his best seasons with the bat (150 OPS+)
7. Ed Siever, P, Detroit Tigers: 195 ERA+ to lead the league, though 188 innings is really low for the era
8. Red Donahue, P, St. Louis Browns: top ten in ERA+ (127) and IP (316)
9. Charlie Hickman, 1B, Boston/Cleveland: 3rd in OPS+ and 2nd in RC; though a weak glove (-2 fielding) holds him back
10. Bill Bernhard, P, Cleveland Bronchos
11. George Davis, SS, Chicago White Sox: an outstanding year with the bat (123 OPS+) and the glove (+12 fielding)
12. Win Mercer, P, Detroit Tigers
   18. MrC. Posted: February 02, 2015 at 07:54 PM (#4892263)
I don't usually like to ask this, but where does Honus Wagner sit in your system? Everyone else seems to have him in the top 2 or 3.
   19. MrC. Posted: February 02, 2015 at 09:55 PM (#4892345)
Sorry Chris. I now only see that that was for the AL only. My apologies
   20. Chris Fluit Posted: February 02, 2015 at 10:04 PM (#4892349)
No problem. You spotted the note before I was able to respond. I'll work up the NL sometime later and merge the two before final ballots are due. It's one way I have of spreading the work out and making it a little bit easier.
   21. Chris Fluit Posted: February 03, 2015 at 05:46 PM (#4892867)
1902 Prelim- NL Only

1. Jack Taylor, P, Chicago Cubs: 206 ERA+ in 333 innings
2. Honus Wagner, SS/RF/1B/LF, Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st in NL with 162 OPS+ but time spent away from short reduces his positional value
3. Noodles Hahn, P, Cincinnati Reds: 169 ERA+ is 2nd best in NL
4. Vic Willis, P, Boston Braves: otherworldly 410 IP to go with a respectable 128 ERA+
5. Sam Crawford, RF, Cincinnati Reds: 1st in Runs Created with 99; 3rd in OPS+ with 153
6. Ginger Beaumont, CF, Pittsburgh Pirates: 4th in OPS+ with 151; adds value with +2 fielding in CF
7. Togie Pittinger, P, Boston Braves: the obscure oldtimer had 389 innings to go with a 112 ERA+
8. Fred Clarke, LF, Pittsburgh Pirates
9. Joe McGinnity, P, Baltimore/New York: includes both his NL and AL numbers
10. Tommy Leach, 3B, Pittsburgh Pirates
11. Heinie Peitz, C, Cincinnati Reds: catcher bonus vaults him over a number of outfielders
12. Jake Beckley, 1B, Cincinnati Reds: how did the Reds finish at only .500 with all of these players having great years?
   22. Chris Fluit Posted: February 03, 2015 at 05:54 PM (#4892874)
1902 Prelim

1. Jack Taylor, P, Chicago Cubs: 206 ERA+ in 333 innings in the (still) tougher league
2. Rube Waddell, P, Philadelphia Athletics: includes minor league credit
3. Cy Young, P, Boston Americans: 164 ERA+ in 384 innings
4. Ed Delahanty, LF, Washington Senators: led the junior circuit in OPS+ and Runs Created with 187 and 125
5. Honus Wagner, SS/RF/1B/LF, Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st in NL with 162 OPS+ but time spent away from short reduces his positional value
6. Nap Lajoie, 2B, Cleveland Bronchos: 176 OPS+ with +4 fielding at 2B
7. Noodles Hahn, P, Cincinnati Reds: 169 ERA+ is 2nd best in NL
8. Vic Willis, P, Boston Braves: otherworldly 410 IP to go with a respectable 128 ERA+
9. Bill Dinneen, P, Boston Americans: 121 ERA+ isn't much but those 371 innings are pretty impressive
10. Bill Bradley, 3B, Cleveland Bronchos: one of the great defenders of all time (+9 fielding for this season) having one of his best seasons with the bat (150 OPS+)

11. Sam Crawford, RF, Cincinnati Reds
12. Ed Siever, P, Detroit Tigers
13. Ginger Beaumont, CF, Pittsburgh Pirates
14. Red Donahue, P, St. Louis Browns
15. Togie Pittinger, P, Boston Braves
   23. bjhanke Posted: February 04, 2015 at 02:36 AM (#4893033)
DL (and everyone else) - I've been thinking about the Rube Waddell minor league credit (MLE). I agree with the idea in Waddell's case, and am going to adjust him to the top of the ballot this year. However, when I start thinking about the issue in general, I start to itch. So, I'm going to ask for a couple of limitations, or at least commentary on the idea of limitations. First, to avoid trying to figure out what MLE to give someone like Gavy Cravath the one year when he only had a cup of coffee in the majors themselves, I want to ask for a policy that goes "you don't give MLE credit unless the pitcher at hand pitched at least 2/3 of the season in the actual major leagues." The reason for this is that, if a man does pitch that much in the majors, you have a pretty good idea what his MLE would look like. That's the case for Waddell. You just add the minor league IP to his major league totals, and figure that he was about the same quality, so you don't have to try to figure out MLEs for 1902, which is all but impossible, due to the low number of stats that were actually kept at the time. The second limitation goes the other way - the 2/3 in the majors limit does NOT apply to negro ballplayers, for the obvious reason. Can I at least ask for comment on this, with the goal of coming up with a serious policy about this before we run into a real cup of coffee case? I do NOT want to have to try to figure out MLEs for the early 1900s for west coast leagues, or the Eastern League, the Sally League, or whatever the best minor leagues were. It's just impossible. I want to see enough major league work to have a convincing idea of how good this guy was in this year, without having to try to figure out anything except IP from his minor league record. Does this work for everyone else? Anyone else? - Brock Hanke
   24. DL from MN Posted: February 04, 2015 at 08:41 AM (#4893056)
There is no requirement to give any credit for minor league play, but it is allowed. We haven't seen anyone with an argument for a ballot slot based solely on minor league play but I suppose Lefty Grove or someone like that might change my mind.

Do the best job you can in the time you have.
   25. DL from MN Posted: February 05, 2015 at 12:20 PM (#4893779)
Pete Hill wasn't playing regularly yet in 1902. Rube Foster was in his rookie year. Grant Johnson was in the prime of his career. Assuming an average year for Johnson (generally better than contemporary Bobby Wallace) would put him ahead of Hickman on my ballot.
   26. DL from MN Posted: February 09, 2015 at 01:25 PM (#4895661)
1902 season tidbits

"In April, Boston's Big Bill Dinneen hit John McGraw five times with pitches. Each time, [Umpire] Sheridan refused to award him first base on the grounds that McGraw had gotten hit intentionally."

"July 1 - Rube Waddell of the Philadelphia Athletics faces the minimum 27 batters in pitching a two-hit shutout against the Baltimore Orioles. Waddell strikes out the side three times in the game, once on nine pitches."

"McGraw enlisted two National League owners to secretly buy up a controlling interest in the Orioles' stock and then release virtually the entire lineup -- including Joe Kelley, Roger Bresnahan, and Joe McGinnity -- to the New York Giants and the Cincinnati Reds."

"July 17 - The Baltimore Orioles, with only five available players, are forced to forfeit a game to the St. Louis Browns and the American League takes over control of the team for the remainder of the season"

"September 10 - Rube Waddell of the Philadelphia Athletics, making only six relief appearance all season, starts twice in a double-header against the Baltimore Orioles and gets the victory in both games."
   27. DL from MN Posted: February 09, 2015 at 01:26 PM (#4895664)
Looks like Waddell was a top hitter in California as well, hitting .283. He had a pretty good bat for a pitcher.
   28. Chris Fluit Posted: February 09, 2015 at 02:08 PM (#4895712)
I'll be away from home for the rest of the month. DL, could you please move my ballot in post #22 to the ballot thread once it's open?
   29. DL from MN Posted: February 09, 2015 at 03:01 PM (#4895770)
Will do, Chris
   30. Chris Fluit Posted: February 09, 2015 at 04:54 PM (#4895878)
Thanks
   31. neilsen Posted: February 19, 2015 at 02:47 PM (#4900214)
1902 Prelim

1) Honus Wagner
2) Rube Waddell
3) Cy Young
4) Ed Delahanty
5) Noodles Hahn
6) Jack Taylor
7) Nap Lajoie
8) Fred Clarke
9) Ginger Beaumont
10) Sam Crawford
   32. toratoratora Posted: February 21, 2015 at 02:50 PM (#4901465)
I thought I'd posted this a while ago...

No adjustments, still have to figure the order of 11-15


1902 prelim:

1-Waddell-Leads in WAA w/o minor league credit
2-Young-384 IP, 164 ERA+
3-Taylor-206 ERA+, but has eight less starts and fifty less innings than Cy
4-Big Ed in his final great year
5-Honus-Finally ensconced at SS
6-Noodles Hahn
7-Bradley
8-Lajoie
9-Willis-410 IP pitched, leads league in K's but Waddell kills him on rate stats
10-McGinnity-volume carries him into the top 10
   33. EricC Posted: February 24, 2015 at 05:44 PM (#4902955)
1902 prelim. With issues of non-major league play, a very tough
ballot to create. Surprised how pitcher-heavy this year was.

1. George Waddell. (bonus for minor league time; #6 on MLB play only)
2. Cy Young.
3. Jack Taylor. I like his ERA+, but stands out less in comprehensive stats.
4. Ed Delahanty
5. Honus Wagner
6. Noodles Hahn. Similarity to tora's prelim is starting to freak me out.
7. Nap Lajoie. Slight credit to make up for games he was prohibited from playing.
8. Andrew Foster. Extremely speculative, as he was very young and data is sketchy.
I have no special information about his season, only what is posted above in this
thread. Call it a hunch.
9. Ginger Beaumont
10. Charlie Hickman
   34. TomH Posted: February 25, 2015 at 08:21 AM (#4903174)
just throwing out something here:

Did Wagner's part-time in OF/1B help his team less than if he played at SS? Do we know why he spent some time there; was it for injuries, or did the other SS (Conroy) sparkle so much on D that it "worked"? Was the manager giving Honus time elsewhere cause the club had a freaking 25 game cushion?? Is there any reason to give Wagenr some bonus for position flexibility, rather than simply cutting his WAR?

The man played a fine shortstop, and also led the league in the minor categories of runs scored and RBI. While missing 13 games. Even missing some time, his bb-ref WAR and WS in combo were significantly above other position players in his league. Oh, and he pitched 5+ innings allowing no earned runs.
   35. Chris Fluit Posted: February 26, 2015 at 02:37 PM (#4904205)
Is there any reason to give Wagenr some bonus for position flexibility, rather than simply cutting his WAR?


It may not be intentional but positional flexibility is already built into WAR. Super-subs like Tony Phillips, Ben Zobrist and Martin Prado already do very well with WAR, more so than you might think by looking at their raw stats. I'm not entirely sure what the reason is- it's possible that the powers that be are adding small samples together for each position played rather than averaging them. In any case, you're double counting if you give a player extra credit for positional flexibility as that credit is already baked into WAR.
   36. TomH Posted: February 26, 2015 at 10:05 PM (#4904440)
Chris, that is fascinating, possibly very helpful, but also a bit bold to state with certainty., I see nothing in the explanations that hints at this:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/war_explained_position.shtml
so I don't know how we could tell if it's true. Maybe I should check out a few Tony Phillips uber-utility years and see what gives.

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