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Monday, March 23, 2015

Most Meritorious Player: 1903 Ballot

For 1903, each voter should rank the top 10 players from all leagues combined.

Balloting is scheduled to close at 4pm EDT on 1 April 2015.

Anyone can vote, even if you do not normally participate in Hall of Merit discussions. If have never participated in an MMP election, just post a preliminary ballot in the discussion thread by 31 March 2015.

For detailed rules see one of our previous ballots.

DL from MN Posted: March 23, 2015 at 09:47 AM | 16 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. DL from MN Posted: March 23, 2015 at 10:35 AM (#4916045)
1903 Ballot

1) Honus Wagner - finally a full-time SS
2) Napoleon Lajoie - best bat in the American League
3) Jimmy Sheckard - strong fielder
4) Joe McGinnity - best pitcher, 434 innings pitched
5) Bill Bradley - not too far behind his teammate Lajoie
6) Christy Mathewson - Top two pitchers and yet the Giants fell short
7) Jimmy Collins - another strong fielder
8) Patsy Dougherty - good World Series
9) Rube Foster - an estimate but I am betting the 24 year old Foster is better than the 36 year old Cy Young
10) Sam Crawford - still a bit ahead of Young even after the World Series is figured in

11-15) Cy Young, Jimmy Barrett, Frank Chance, Bill Dahlen, Freddy Parent
16-21) Bill Donovan, Vic Willis, Roger Bresnahan, Billy Lush, Elmer Flick, Rube Waddell
   2. Chris Fluit Posted: March 23, 2015 at 07:12 PM (#4916469)
1903 Ballot

1. Joe McGinnity, P, New York Giants: beats out Wagner by a whisker; an astronomical 434 innings and an era+ that's good enough for 4th (139)
2. Honus Wagner, SS, Pittsburgh Pirates: finally playing the majority of his games at SS; 160 OPS+ to go along with NL leading 108 Runs Created
3. Nap Lajoie, 2B, Cleveland Naps: head and shoulders ahead of the rest of the AL; there's a reason the team was renamed after him; 1st in OPS+ (169) and 2nd in Runs Created (94) with outstanding defense (+17)
4. Christy Mathewson, P, New York Giants: only the second-best pitcher on his own team; 149 ERA+ and 366 innings
5. Cy Young, P, Boston Americans: 145 ERA+ in 341 innings
6. Bill Bradley, 3B, Cleveland Naps: a forgotten great; 153 OPS+, 92 RC and +11 fielding
7. Rube Foster, P, Cuban X Giants: 228 ERA+ in recorded games; twice the WAR of any other Negro League player
8. Sam Leever, P, Pittsburgh Pirates: NL-leading 159 ERA+ and respectable 284 innings cracks the top ten
9. Jimmy Sheckard, LF, Brooklyn Superbas: the best defender (+10 fielding runs) among the top outfielders
10. Eddie Plank, P, Philadelphia Athletics: top ten ERA+ (128) to go with 336 IP

11. Mike Donlin, LF/RF
12. Earl Moore, P
13. Fred Clarke, LF
14. Sam Crawford, RF/LF
15. Roger Bresnahan, CF
16. Noodles Hahn, P
17. Freddy Parent, SS
18. George Mullin, P
19. Bill Dinneen, P
20. Doc White, P
   3. bjhanke Posted: March 25, 2015 at 07:35 AM (#4917476)
Ah! BTF having gotten past backup, I am able to comment. Back in the discussion thread, I've posted the whole essay I've been trying to write. It takes three comments, #20-22, because it is 4600 words long, and comments have a size limit. You should ignore comment #16; comment #20 is the final draft of #16.

There were a couple of responses to #16, which I appreciate. In response to, I think, OCF, I think that widening of pitcher loads starts with the 1886 St. Louis Browns of the American Association. That's the only reason I wrote so much about them; they are where it seems to begin. And Charles Comiskey is certainly a good choice for someone who might try an innovation. The innovation is ABOUT Bob Caruthers, I think; but it was probably Comiskey's idea. Within the 20th century, I think things break open with the 1902 Pirates. They are succeeded promptly by the Cubs; however, the only reason the Pirates didn't continue with their plan was that, in the last year of the AL/NL feud, the Yankees tried to buy a pennant by signing Jack Chesbro and Jesse Tannehill away from the Pirates before the 1903 season (it is VERY clear that these were not sales where the Pirates got something in return. They were just offered more money by the Yankees). This is why the Pirates won "only" 91 games in 1903, instead of 103, and it is the reason that, suddenly, Deacon Phillippe and Sam Leever start pitching so many more innings (which is an example of my thesis. I do not think that Deacon and Sam were better pitchers in 1903 than 1902, but they have more WAR and WS because they have to take over some Chesbro/Tannehill innings).

But my whole premise is that all of this is driven by the curve that represents how many innings a good, sturdy starter could handle before his performance started to suffer. My contention is that this number, which I call IPMax, drops very quickly in the 19th century; the curve segment representing the drop is close to vertical. By 1910 or so, the curve has become basically horizontal. The decade 1901-1909 represents the "elbow" in the curve, what I call "turning the corner." When this happens in curves of this sort, people get more disoriented than in other times, because things change so rapidly. So, in this decade, as in any other, we have managers who are well behind the curve, and others (Fred Clarke, Frank Selee and Frank Chance) that are well ahead of the curve, and others in the middle, but the difference between those three groups is more at this time than it is at any other time. Does that make sense? It's a summary of a 4600 word essay. Sigh. - Brock Hanke
   4. bjhanke Posted: March 27, 2015 at 03:06 AM (#4918652)
Here’s Brock Hanke’s final ballot, he having gotten his 4600-word essay out of his system (see the 1903 Discussion Thread). As you know, I start these things by ordering the players by Win Shares and then by WAR, then adding those two ordinals together. The lower the sum, the higher the ranking. This ballot deviates from that start more than, I think, any I’ve ever submitted. As my giant essay displays, I think that baseball is in the middle of a huge, defining set of changes at this time, where several development / sophistication curves are “turning the corner.” This makes for a hard envioronment for systems to deal with, so I deviated when I thought it was appropriate.

The most off-consensus placements I have are probably: 1) not having Nap Lajoie on the ballot at all, 2) having both Deacon Phillippe and Sam Leever on it, and 3) having Phillippe higher than Leever. 4) My placement of Rube Foster may seem high to some, but let’s face it, any placement of Foster is no more than an educated guess. I gave Foster extra credit for everything from managing to setting up a league to handling the money end of the league. As for league quality, well, about 3 years from now, if the urban legends are correct, John McGraw will try to get Frank Grant passed as a “Latin” player. If Frank Grant was that good, then Foster, certainly the best player in negro baseball, must have been pretty terrific. Lajoie is, I think, an issue of the role of second basemen. I buy entirely into Bill James’ essay on Lajoie’s defense in the New Historical, and he played in the lesser league. By the numbers, he would have been tied for 4th with Honus. I think that’s just the systems having problems with the time period. I have never dropped a player this far from the initial numbers, so I could be very wrong. Lajoie is in his prime at this time.

As you probably have all read me mention at some time or other, I am convinced that Deacon Phillippe was the actual ace of the Pittsburgh staff, and so faced stronger competition than Leever. I also tend to give the Deacon a little extra credit for the World Series, where he beat Cy Young twice, and then Fred Clarke, worried that all his other arms were dead, including Leever’s, just tried to ride Deacon’s arm to the championshp by pitching him every day, instead of keeping him on an “odd-numbered games against Young” rotation, and hoping that his truly outstanding offense would win a slugging match against Bill Dinneen sooner or later (likely), or that the Deacon would actually beat Cy Young 5 times in a row (unlikely, but unnecesssary if the Pirates beat Dinneen even once, and remember, Deacon has already beaten Cy twice in a row).

Enough of this. I’ve already written 4600 words about this season. Here’s the ballot:

1. Joe McGinnity
2. Christy Mathewson
3. Cy Young
4. Honus Wagner
5. Rube Foster
6. Jimmy Sheckard (surprise!)
7. Rube Waddell
8. Deacon Phillippe
9. Sam Leever
10. Bill Bradley (over Lajoie basically because defense was more important at 3B than at 2B at this time)
   5. DL from MN Posted: March 27, 2015 at 09:45 AM (#4918711)
I was hoping to wrap this up next Wednesday but just 3 ballots so far
   6. MrC. Posted: March 28, 2015 at 11:20 PM (#4919473)
I'm working on my ballot; hoping to complete before the end of the weekend.
   7. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 30, 2015 at 03:36 PM (#4920182)
Official 1903 MMP Ballot (no postseason bonuses or league adjustments):

1) Rube Foster: Best "ML" pitcher/player, though not that far off from Young.
2) Cy Young: Best AL pitcher.
3) Christy Mathewson: Best NL pitcher.
4) Joe McGinnity: Basically a tie with his teammate.
5) Honus Wagner: Best ML shortstop.
6) Sam Leever: The remaining players are fairly close in value, IMO.
7) Nap Lajoie: Best ML second baseman.
8) Eddie Plank
9) Bill Dinneen
10) Jimmy Sheckard: Best ML left fielder.
   8. DL from MN Posted: March 31, 2015 at 09:47 AM (#4920560)
I'm going to extend a week. I'm not sure if people realize tomorrow is the first Wednesday of the month.
   9. Michael J. Binkley's anxiety closet Posted: April 01, 2015 at 04:41 PM (#4921679)
1903 MMP ballot:

I use a combination of WAR systems to get an average WAR for each player. I use that number to get a Dan R-style peak-rate salary estimation. I divide that salary by $1 million and add 3 times the average WAR to that dividend. I use a 20% bonus for catchers and do not credit postseason except as a tiebreaker.

1. Rube Foster (59.97) - Based on MLE's
2. Joe McGinnity (52.38) - NL MMP
3. Honus Wagner (49.36) - NL MMPosition Player
4. Christy Mathewson (48.48)
5. Nap Lajoie (46.47) - AL MMP
6. Jimmy Sheckard (45.74)
7. Rube Waddell (38.91) - AL MMPitcher
8. Cy Young (38.15)
9. Frank Chance (36.01)
10. Noodles Hahn (33.42)
   10. EricC Posted: April 01, 2015 at 05:34 PM (#4921736)
1903 MMP ballot

1. Joe McGinnity
2. Christy Mathewson. OK with WAR's assessment of these two pitchers as the top players.
3. Nap Lajoie
4. Honus Wagner
5. Cy Young. Good World Series.
6. Johnny Kling. Not so much a catcher bonus, per se, as dominance at position.
132 games as catcher; 2nd most in MLB was 107, while having top OPS+ among 1st-string
catchers and above-average defense.
7. Andrew Foster. My best estimate of his value.
8. Bill Bradley
9. Sam Leever. Some love for Pittsburgh pitching quality
10. Jimmy Sheckard.
   11. MrC. Posted: April 03, 2015 at 10:03 AM (#4922877)
1903 Final Ballot

Batters: Start with RAA (using custom linear weights), adjust for park, position and defense (using DRA) Convert adjusted RAA to wins. Add 60% of normal Runs above replacement to get WARR (wins above reduced replacement). If applicable, any pitching WARR that a position player may have.

Pitchers: Calculate RAA using a pitchers FIP and calculate RAA using a pitcher's RA9.

Calculate RAA, using a blend of RA9 and FIP from above, adjust for quality of opposition and park. Convert adjusted RAA to wins. Add 60% of normal runs above replacement to get WARR (wins above reduced replacement). Add Hitter WARR for overall WARR. As well, a few pitchers have fielding numbers as position players which I take into account.

1. Christy Mathewson 8.56 WARR
2. Jimmy Sheckard 7.77 WARR Best NL hitter with outstanding defens
3. Cy Young 7.34 WARR Good hitting puts him a step above McGinnity and Waddell
4. Joe McGinnity 7.00 WARR
5. Rube Waddell 6.70 WARR poor hitting drops Waddell below Young and McGinnity
6. Nap Lajoie 6.67 WARR
7. Honus Wagner 6.58 WARR
8. Bill Bradley 6.47 WARR
9. Rube Foster I am taking comments of others to include Foster on my ballot. My best guess as where to place him.
10.Noodles Hahn 5.74 WARR

Rest of the top 20
Frank Chance
Roy Thomas
Billy Lush
Deacon Phillippe
Sam Crawford
Freddie Parent
Bill Dahlen
Patsy Dougherty
Cy Seymour
Jimmy Barrrett
   12. DL from MN Posted: April 03, 2015 at 10:37 AM (#4922896)
Interesting election so far. No ballots yet from:

Moeball
lieam
neilsen
toratoratora

Still time to post a prelim if you haven't voted before or in a while
   13. neilsen Posted: April 04, 2015 at 11:51 AM (#4923446)
1. Rube Foster - In what Holway calls " The First Black Playoff", Foster goes 4-0 and bats .353
2. Honus Wagner - Best ML position player
3. Christy Mathewson
4. Rube Waddell
5. Nap Lajoie
6. Cy Young
7. Jimmy Sheckard
8. Noodles Hahn
9. Joe McGinnity
10. Frank Chance
   14. Michael J. Binkley's anxiety closet Posted: April 06, 2015 at 01:18 PM (#4924523)
Edit for my 1903 ballot (somehow I missed Bill Bradley - net result: he slides in at 7th and everyone else slides down one spot with Noodles Hahn falling off ballot.) Sorry, DL.

1. Rube Foster (59.97) - Based on MLE's
2. Joe McGinnity (52.38) - NL MMP
3. Honus Wagner (49.36) - NL MMPosition Player
4. Christy Mathewson (48.48)
5. Nap Lajoie (46.47) - AL MMP
6. Jimmy Sheckard (45.74)
7. Bill Bradley (40.71)
8. Rube Waddell (38.91) - AL MMPitcher
9. Cy Young (38.15)
10. Frank Chance (36.01)
   15. DL from MN Posted: April 07, 2015 at 02:34 PM (#4925596)
Close election. No ballots from Moeball or lieiam
   16. DL from MN Posted: April 08, 2015 at 05:22 PM (#4926659)
Balloting is closed. Low turnout this year.

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