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Wednesday, July 01, 2015

Most Meritorious Player: 1907 Discussion

Most Meritorious Player: 1907 Discussion

The Cubs beat Detroit in the World Series.

Player			SH WS		BBR WAR
Honus Wagner		44.8		9.0
Sherry Magee		38.1		6.9
Ty Cobb			40.1		6.8
Napoleon Lajoie		29.4		7.6
Elmer Flick		33.7		5.6
George Stone		27.5		5.5
Tommy Leach		30.5		5.4
Fred Clarke		29.1		5.2
Art Devlin		23.6		4.6
Sam Crawford		35.5		5.9
Topsy Hartsel		27.4		4.3
Ginger Beaumont		26.8		4.5
Roger Bresnahan		17.8		3.7
Dave Brain		21.7		4.9
Frank Chance		22.0		4.7
Johnny Kling		18.4		3.5
Tim Jordan		22.0		3.6
Bobby Wallace		19.6		5.3
Fred Tenney		21.4		4.1
Mike Mitchell		19.5		3.4
Fielder Jones		26.3		4.1
Kid Elberfeld		21.7		3.1
Cy Seymour		21.6		3.7
Ed Hahn			26.6		3.2
Socks Seybold		19.5		3.1
Jimmy Sheckard		23.8		2.2
Davy Jones		22.5		3.5
Johnny Evers		20.9		5.3
Harry Steinfeldt	21.1		4.6
George Davis		17.2		4.6
Harry Davis		19.8		3.9

Pete Hill

Pitcher			SH WS		BBR WAR
Ed Walsh		34.2		7.6
Ed Killian		29.3		8.1
Ed Karger		21.2		6.9
Ed Siever		19.3		5.6
Eddie Plank		27.5		6.6
Christy Mathewson	26.7		7.7
Cy Young		26.1		7.9
Orval Overall		30.9		6.0
Bob Ewing		23.1		6.2
Addie Joss		31.8		5.6
Mordecai Brown		28.4		5.1
Chief Bender		20.9		5.6
Carl Lundgren		25.5		4.7
Bill Donovan		23.3		5.6
Doc White		23.4		4.6

Danny McClellan

DL from MN Posted: July 01, 2015 at 02:15 PM | 16 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. DL from MN Posted: July 01, 2015 at 02:21 PM (#4990027)
Roger Bresnahan debuts shin guards. Cy Young briefly manages after his manager commits suicide. First year for the Boston "Red Sox". George McQuillan makes an impressive debut. The first game of the World Series is declared a tie due to darkness but the Cubs win the next 4 games.
   2. bjhanke Posted: July 02, 2015 at 06:27 PM (#4991372)
Just a note about the Chicago Cubs of this time, who had Tinker, Evers and Chance. If you look at the individual years, in Win Shares or some other book that does this, what you'll find is that the three infielders are almost never the best three position players on the team, or particularly close. There's always an outfielder or two, and maybe the third baseman in there. What sets the trio apart is that they are the only ones who are reasonably consistently good through the time period. The outfielders who keep popping up are Wildfire Schulte, basically a LF, Jimmy Sheckard, basically weird, and Solly Hofman, who was a hot glove CF who ranks high in the years where he did some hitting. None of those three are particularly consistent, but when they have their hot years, they are generally better than at least two of the Big Three. Between them, and having Johnny Kling at catcher (the best catcher of the era, considering that Roger Bresnahan was not consistently a catcher or a starter), you can see how these teams won all those games despite the Big Three not being as Big as they were thought to be at the time. - Brock Hanke
   3. DL from MN Posted: July 07, 2015 at 01:08 PM (#4994010)
1907 Prelim

1) Honus Wagner - my guess is this is unanimous. Best hitter, played SS well. 3 win gap on the next player.
2) Sherry Magee - good fielder
3) Ty Cobb - my guess is this isn't his first and last appearance
4) Napoleon Lajoie - outstanding fielding numbers, Brock mentioned that might be fishy
5) Elmer Flick
6) Danny McClellan - good pitching numbers again in 1907, good hitter, not much outside of his 1905-1907 peak
7) Ed Karger - best MLB pitcher
8) George Stone
9) Ed Walsh - 422 IP
10) Tommy Leach - top CF this season

11-15) Fred Clarke, Art Devlin, Christy Mathewson, Sam Crawford, Cy Young
16-21) Pete Hill, Topsy Hartsel, Ginger Beaumont, Eddie Plank, Roger Bresnahan, Ed Killian
   4. DL from MN Posted: July 07, 2015 at 01:18 PM (#4994022)
Bruce Petway had the best 56 plate appearances of his career in 1907 but the performance is not supported by surrounding seasons or the American Series of 1906-7 and 1907-8. Grant Johnson and Bill Monroe played well for Brooklyn but Johnson's year was a dropoff from his 1905 and 1906. 1907 is also his last full year at SS before starting to transition to 2B. Harry Buckner pitched quite a few innings but his ERA+ is mediocre.
   5. DL from MN Posted: July 07, 2015 at 01:36 PM (#4994050)
1907 World Series
Player Name  G  AB  R  H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO  BA  OBP  SLG  OPS  SB E
Mordecai Brown  1  3  0  0  0  0  0  0  1  0  .000  .250  .000  .250  0  0
Frank Chance  4  13  3  2  1  0  0  0  4  2  .154  .389  .231  .620  3  0
Johnny Kling  5  19  2  4  0  0  0  1  1  4  .211  .250  .211  .461  0  1
Orval Overall  2  5  0  1  0  0  0  2  0  1  .200  .200  .200  .400  0  0
Jimmy Sheckard  5  21  0  5  2  0  0  2  0  4  .238  .273  .333  .606  1  0

Ty Cobb  5  20  1  4  0  1  0  0  0  3  .200  .238  .300  .538  0  0
Sam Crawford  5  21  1  5  1  0  0  3  0  3  .238  .238  .286  .524  0  0
Ed Killian  1  2  1  1  0  0  0  0  0  0  .500  .500  .500  1.000  0  0

Pitcher Name  G  GS  ERA  W  L  SV  CG  IP  H  R  ER  BB  SO  WHIP  
Mordecai Brown  1  1  0.00  1  0  0  1  9.0  7  0  0  1  4  0.889
Orval Overall  2  2  1.00  1  0  0  1  18.0  14  4  2  4  11  1.000 

Ed Killian  1  0  2.25  0  0  0  0  4.0  3  1  1  1  1  1.000  


Not much hitting in this series - both teams well below a 700 OPS. 25 total runs scored in 5 games.
   6. DL from MN Posted: July 07, 2015 at 01:37 PM (#4994052)
The Cubs had 7 pitchers start at least 10 games in 1907 and nobody started more than 30
   7. Mike Emeigh Posted: July 09, 2015 at 12:09 AM (#4995571)
Frank Chance was one of the more notorious starter leveragers of his time, as Chris Jaffe points out in his book. In 1907, for example, nine of Brown's 27 starts were against the Giants and 4 were against the Pirates; Overall started 2 games against each of those two teams. Jack Taylor, at the end of his career, had six of his 13 starts against the Giants and Pirates. Carl Lundgren had 25 starts in the regular season - 7 against Pittsburgh - and didn't throw an inning in the postseason.

Oh yeah, and "Jack the Giant Killer" Pfiester? He started exactly one time against the Giants in 1907. 12 of his 22 starts were against Brooklyn and Boston.

-- MWE

EDIT: Brown didn't pitch in the World Series until Game 5. Overall started Games 1 and 4, Pfiester Game 2, Reulbach Game 3 (he relieved in Game 1, a 3-3 tie).
   8. Mike Emeigh Posted: July 09, 2015 at 12:21 AM (#4995576)
I should also add that the real value of the Tinker/Evers/Chance trio was on defense. The Cubs of this era didn't really have great pitchers, except for Brown - but they kept runners off the bases and took a good percentage of the few that were on base off the bases via the double play (they didn't turn many but had a great rate).

When Evers went from Chicago to Boston in 1914, essentially in a trade for Boston's 2B Bill Sweeney, the Braves went from near the bottom of the pack in DPs to near the top; the Cubs went the other way. Despite Bill James's trumpeting of Stallings's platoons in the outfield, the real difference between the 1913 Braves and the 1914 Braves was on the other side of the ball (when you consider park and league offensive level) - and Stallings himself said as much before the 1914 WS. It's no coincidence that the Chalmers Award voting in 1914 went Evers 1, Maranville 2, James 3.

-- MWE
   9. CheersUnusualPlays Posted: July 10, 2015 at 01:39 PM (#4996678)
re #3: While Tommy Leach is my favourite deadball player (I believe he and Lave Cross were just as good as Jimmy Collins) I would think Sam Crawford was a better center fielder this year than Wee Tommy
   10. Chris Fluit Posted: July 20, 2015 at 08:48 AM (#5002909)
Bruce Petway had the best 56 plate appearances of his career in 1907 but the performance is not supported by surrounding seasons or the American Series of 1906-7 and 1907-8. Grant Johnson and Bill Monroe played well for Brooklyn but Johnson's year was a dropoff from his 1905 and 1906. 1907 is also his last full year at SS before starting to transition to 2B. Harry Buckner pitched quite a few innings but his ERA+ is mediocre.
That's a pretty good summary, DL. Petway's career year looks like a short-season fluke. Buckner leads the Negro Leagues in Win Shares but that's more about bulk (92 innings) than quality (99 ERA+)- though he did add a bit with his bat (145 OPS+ in 76 PA). The other regulars (Hill, Johnson, Monroe) had good years but not outstanding ones.

I would argue that the best player this season is Dan McClellan again. I think that Win Shares Above Bench is a useful tool for measuring Negro League players. It adjusts to the fact that the Negro Leagues had less depth and a lower quality of play (especially at this early juncture) by measuring players against bench instead of replacement level. McClellan leads North American players in WSAB- 3.6 to Buckner's 2.7 and Petway's 2.5. That's a pretty significant margin. McClellan's rate numbers are slightly better than they were in 1906 as well (ERA+ of 213 and OPS+ of 108) though he didn't play as much so I would still rate his '06 season ahead. I'm not sure if it'll be enough to get him onto my ballot but McClellan is worth taking a look at as the top NeL player.
   11. Chris Fluit Posted: July 20, 2015 at 09:23 AM (#5002919)
1907 Prelim- NL Only

1. Honus Wagner, SS, Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st in OPS+ and RC; a huge lead over the rest of the field- the gap between #1 and #2 is as big as the gap from #2 to #9
2. Sherry Magee, LF, Philadelphia Phillies: 2nd in OPS+ and RC, adds +8 fielding on defense
3. Carl Lundgren, P, Chicago Cubs
4. Jack Pfiester, P, Chicago Cubs: WAR gives most of the credit to the Cubs' defense but I can't ignore ERA+ marks of 216 and 213, even when they're paired with relatively low IP totals
5. Ginger Beaumont, CF, Boston Doves: 3rd in OPS+ and RC; below average in centerfield (-4 fielding runs) but it's still a premium defensive position
6. Bob Ewing, P, Cincinnati Reds: the best combination of rate (150 ERA+) and bulk (332 innings)
7. Mordecai Brown, P, Chicago Cubs
8. Tommy Leach, CF/3B, Pittsburgh Pirates: sneaks into the top ten OPS+ with 136, adds +5 fielding at two tough positions
9. Dave Brain, 3B, Boston Doves: 134 OPS+ and +4 fielding at the hot corner
10. Fred Clarke, LF, Pittsburgh Pirates
   12. Chris Fluit Posted: July 21, 2015 at 04:06 PM (#5003771)
1907 Prelim- AL Only

1. Ed Walsh, P, Chicago White Sox: 1st in ERA+ with 150 while pitching an astronomical 422 IP
2. Ty Cobb, RF, Detroit Tigers: 1st in OPS+ and RC; a CF bonus would have pushed the Georgia Peach ahead of Walsh
3. Sam Crawford, CF, Detroit Tigers: 2nd in OPS+ and RC
4. Napoleon Lajoie, 2B, Cleveland Naps: 6th in OPS+, 7th in RC, great defense at the keystone
5. Addie Joss, P, Cleveland Naps: 136 ERA+ in 338 IP
6. George Stone, LF, St. Louis Browns: 152 OPS+ and 91 RC
7. Elmer Flick, LF, Cleveland Naps: 153 OPS+ and 85 RC
8. Ed Killian, P, Detroit Tigers: 146 ERA+ in 314 IP
9. Cy Young, P, Boston Americans: 129 ERA+ in 343 IP
10. Nig Clarke, C, Cleveland Naps: a top ten OPS+ (124) from the man behind the plate
   13. Chris Fluit Posted: July 21, 2015 at 04:17 PM (#5003776)
1907 Prelim

1. Honus Wagner, SS, Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st in NL OPS+ and RC; a huge lead over the rest of the field- the gap from Wagner to Magee is the same as Magee to Brain
2. Sherry Magee, LF, Philadelphia Phillies: 2nd in NL OPS+ and RC, adds +8 fielding on defense
3. Ed Walsh, P, Chicago White Sox: 1st in AL ERA+ with 150 while pitching an astronomical 422 IP
4. Ty Cobb, RF, Detroit Tigers: 1st in AL OPS+ and RC; a CF bonus would have pushed the Georgia Peach ahead of Walsh
5. Sam Crawford, CF, Detroit Tigers: 2nd in AL OPS+ and RC
6. Carl Lundgren, P, Chicago Cubs
7. Jack Pfiester, P, Chicago Cubs: WAR gives most of the credit to the Cubs' defense but I can't ignore ERA+ marks of 216 and 213, even when they're paired with relatively low IP totals
8. Napoleon Lajoie, 2B, Cleveland Naps: 6th in AL OPS+, 7th in RC, great defense at the keystone
9. Addie Joss, P, Cleveland Naps: 136 ERA+ in 338 IP
10. Ginger Beaumont, CF, Boston Doves: 3rd in NL OPS+ and RC; -4 fielding run at a premium defensive position; narrowly beats out McClellan and Stone for the final ballot spot

11. Dan McClellan, P, Philadelphia Giants: 213 ERA+ and 108 OPS+
12. George Stone, LF, St. Louis Browns: 152 OPS+ and 91 RC
13. Bob Ewing, P, Cincinnati Reds
14. Mordecai Brown, P, Chicago Cubs
15. Elmer Flick, LF, Cleveland Naps: 153 OPS+ and 85 RC
   14. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 03, 2015 at 12:08 PM (#5012013)
Prelim:

1) Honus Wagner
2) Ty Cobb
3) Sherry Magee
4) Ed Walsh
5) Carl Lundgren
6) Sam Crawford
7) Orval Overall
8) Mordecai Brown
9) Elmer Flick
10) Nap Lajoie
   15. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 03, 2015 at 01:47 PM (#5012126)
Take 2:

1) Honus Wagner
2) Ty Cobb
3) Sherry Magee
4) Ed Walsh
5) Carl Lundgren
6) Sam Crawford
7) Orval Overall
8) Mordecai Brown
9) Christy Mathewson
10) Elmer Flick
   16. toratoratora Posted: August 17, 2015 at 04:28 PM (#5020934)
The usual prelim-blend of WAR systems, no adjustments, no Negro league players taken into account yet:

1-Honus Wagner
2-Ty Cobb
3-Sherry Magee
4-Napoleon Lajoie
5-Christy Mathewson
6-Ed Walsh
7-Sam Crawford
8-Cy Young
9-Elmer Flick
10-Ed Killian

11-Rube Waddell
12-Addie Joss
13-Ed Karger
14-Orval Overall
15-Tommy Leach

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