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Wednesday, September 30, 2015

Most Meritorious Player: 1910 Discussion

The Athletics defeated the Cubs in the World Series. Cobb stays out of the lineup to try to win the batting title. Cy Young wins game 500.

Player			SH WS		BBR WAR
Napoleon Lajoie		46.2		9.8
Ty Cobb			45.6		10.5
Eddie Collins		39.1		10.5
Tris Speaker		34.0		7.7
Honus Wagner		29.7		5.2
Sherry Magee		35.7		6.7
Solly Hofman		30.9		5.3
Ed Konetchy		25.0		5.1
Frank Baker		24.6		5.2
Donie Bush		24.3		5.6
John Knight		24.0		4.4
Danny Murphy		24.5		4.5
Mike Mowrey		22.2		3.4
Fred Snodgrass		23.3		4.5
Dode Paskert		24.6		4.3	
Rube Oldring		24.9		4.5
Johnny Bates		24.2		4.0
Al Bridwell		20.8		3.9
Clyde Milan		23.0		4.5
Bobby Byrne		26.5		4.1
Mickey Doolan		21.4		3.8
Joe Tinker		21.3		4.0
Jimmy Sheckard		23.2		3.2
Frank Schulte		26.0		3.0
Ted Easterly		14.9		2.8
Larry McLean		16.0		3.3
George McBride		16.8		4.9
Jack Barry		18.7		4.5
Jake Stahl		19.6		3.8
Bert Daniels		17.1		2.8
Duffy Lewis		19.1		3.5
Heine Wagner		18.1		3.8
Roger Bresnahan		12.2		2.9
Bobby Wallace		20.2		4.3
George Gibson		17.6		2.6

Pete Hill
John Henry Lloyd
Grant Johnson
Charles Earle

Pitcher			SH WS		BBR WAR
Ed Walsh		35.1		11.5
Walter Johnson		32.8		11.4
Russ Ford		32.1		11.5
Jack Coombs		35.0		10.1
Christy Mathewson	29.9		8.1
Nap Rucker		23.3		7.1
Earl Moore		20.9		5.9
King Cole		25.3		5.7
George Suggs		18.9		4.9
Buster Brown		17.5		3.9
Chief Bender		24.7		6.4
Cy Barger		18.3		5.2
Doc Scanlan		15.7		4.9
Harry Gaspar		17.9		4.0
Louis Drucke		16.0		4.6
Mordecai Brown		29.8		4.7
George McQuillan	13.7		4.3

Jose Mendez
Walter Ball
Frank Wickware
Rube Foster
Joe Williams
DL from MN Posted: September 30, 2015 at 04:50 PM | 23 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. DL from MN Posted: September 30, 2015 at 04:53 PM (#5050619)
Pete Hill is the top hitter in the Negro Leagues but Lloyd might be the best SS in baseball in a good year for shortstops.
   2. toratoratora Posted: October 02, 2015 at 11:32 AM (#5052159)
According to Baseball Reference, Lajoie only has 9.8 war for 2010
   3. toratoratora Posted: October 02, 2015 at 12:09 PM (#5052211)
Err, that should say 1910. It would be a helluva trick for Nap to be have a near 10 WAR season at 135 years old and dead to boot
   4. DL from MN Posted: October 02, 2015 at 01:03 PM (#5052285)
Correct. I copied the gWAR line mistakenly.
   5. DL from MN Posted: October 02, 2015 at 01:09 PM (#5052293)
Shoeless Joe Jackson hit .354 in New Orleans before moving up to Cleveland and hitting .387.
   6. Chris Fluit Posted: October 07, 2015 at 10:54 AM (#5056202)
1910 Prelim- NL Only

1. Sherry Magee, LF/CF, Philadelphia Phillies: NL leading 174 OPS+ and 114 Runs Created
2. Christy Mathewson, P, New York Giants: 2nd in ERA+ (157) and 1st in IP (318)
3. Honus Wagner, SS, Pittsburgh Pirates: it's an off year for Wagner but it's good enough for third in the NL
4. Mordecai Brown, P, Chicago Cubs: 3rd in ERA+ (155) with almost 300 IP (295, to be precise)
5. Solly Hofman, CF/1B, Chicago Cubs: tied for 2nd in OPS+ (154)
6. King Cole, P, Chicago Cubs: the big rookie led the NL in ERA+ with 160
7. Larry Doyle, 2B, New York Giants: his big bat (128 OPS+) more than makes up for his lead glove (-7 fielding)
8. Ed Konetchy, 1B, St. Louis Cardinals: 4th in OPS+ with 144
9. Fred Snodgrass, CF, New York Giants: tied for 2nd in OPS+ with 154 but only played 123 games
10. Bobby Byrne, 3B, Pittsburgh Pirates: sneaks into the top ten with 122 OPS+ and 92 RC
   7. bjhanke Posted: October 08, 2015 at 04:53 AM (#5057714)
Solly Hofman is well worth looking up this year. Solly was VERY odd. When healthy and playing all year, he was probably the best CF in the NL (not Cobb or Speaker, but close). Then there are years where he just contributes almost nothing. This year, obviously, is one of the good ones.

There's also a serious point to be made about the Cubs here. All three of their starting outfielders outrank ANY of the infielders. For a team famous for its infield, this is certainly odd. But it's just like this team was during its historic winning years. Solly Hofman, Wildfire Schulte, Jimmy Sheckard and Jimmy Slagle are not consistent (although the other three are more consistent than Hofman), but there's always one or two who rank with, or even higher than, the best of the infielders for a given year. Hence, all those wins, but not many appearances on the MMP ballots. - Brock
   8. Chris Fluit Posted: October 09, 2015 at 09:31 AM (#5058797)
1910 Prelim- AL Only

1. Napoleon Lajoie, 2B/1B, Cleveland Naps
2. Ty Cobb, CF/RF, Detroit Tigers: Cobb outhit Lajoie (206 to 199 OPS+) and wielded the better glove (+8 fielding runs to -1) so how does Lajoie come out on top? It's partly playing time (Lajoie led the league with 159 games while Cobb had a respectable 140) but mostly position (2B is considered even in 1910, CF is considered -4)
3. Ed Walsh, P, Chicago White Sox
4. Walter Johnson, P, Washington Senators
5. Jack Coombs, P, Philadelphia Athletics: 1-2-3 in ERA+, 2-1-3 in IP
6. Eddie Collins, 2B, Philadelphia Athletics: 152 OPS+ but the +24 fielding runs is really eye-catching
7. Tris Speaker, CF, Boston Red Sox: 170 OPS+ to go along with +8 fielding
8. Russ Ford, P, New York Highlanders: 160 ERA+ but 299 innings trails the leaders by quite a lot
9. George Mullin, P, Detroit Tigers: the only other pitcher to make the top ten in both ERA+ and IP
10. Ray Collins, P, Boston Red Sox: 157 ERA+ in 244 innings
   9. Chris Fluit Posted: October 09, 2015 at 09:55 AM (#5058819)
There's also a serious point to be made about the Cubs here. All three of their starting outfielders outrank ANY of the infielders. For a team famous for its infield, this is certainly odd. But it's just like this team was during its historic winning years. Solly Hofman, Wildfire Schulte, Jimmy Sheckard and Jimmy Slagle are not consistent (although the other three are more consistent than Hofman), but there's always one or two who rank with, or even higher than, the best of the infielders for a given year. Hence, all those wins, but not many appearances on the MMP ballots. - Brock
I wouldn't go that far. I agree that the Cubs' success relied on a lot more than their famous infield. Like the '70s Dodgers or '90s Yankees, they had tremendous depth and great players all over the field. But the infield was still the best.

Player: Career WAR, Cubs WAR
Tinker: 53.2, 45.3
Evers: 47.7, 39.5
Chance: 45.6, 45.5

Sheckard: 49.6, 19.1 (his HoM case is built more on his Brooklyn years)
Schulte: 23.7, 21.9
Hofman: 17.2, 16.4
Slagle: 15.5, 14.3

plus the other contributors:
Steinfeldt: 30.8, 19.4
Kling: 24.9, 22.4 (would have been higher had he not missed 1909 over a contract dispute)

Position players with 3+ WAR (in order) during the Cubs' peak years
1906: Chance, Steinfeldt, Tinker, Kling, Evers, Schulte, Sheckard
1907: Evers, Chance, Steinfeldt, Kling
1908: Tinker, Evers, Kling, Chance
1909: Tinker, Evers, Steinfeldt, Hofman
1910: Hofman, Tinker, Evers, Schulte, Sheckard

So, yeah, outfielders show up on the list three of the five seasons- and all three of them show up in our current season of 1910. But an OF only leads once (Hofman in 1910) while each of the three famous infielders takes a turn for a season or two. Plus, the other two regulars (Steinfeldt and Kling) show up more often than any individual OF. The Cubs' outfielders were certainly above average during their great run but the infielders led the way.

Schulte will lead the Cubs in WAR in 1911 and new 3B Zimmerman in 1912 but by then the Cubs were drifting down the standings. I'd agree that the rest of the Cubs are unfairly overlooked but I can't agree that they should rank ahead of the famous infield trio.
   10. DL from MN Posted: October 09, 2015 at 10:50 AM (#5058878)
Kling might be the most underrated factor.
   11. DL from MN Posted: October 09, 2015 at 02:07 PM (#5059165)
Best 30 seasons of 1901-1910 according to my calculator (no stdev or scoring adjustments)

Wagner 1908 25.4
Cobb 1909 21.5
Wagner 1907 20.9
Lajoie 1910 20.8
Cobb 1910 20.6


Collins 1909 20.2
Wagner 1906 20.1
Lajoie 1901 20.1
Wagner 1905 20.0
Lajoie 1904 20.0

Waddell 1902 19.6
Wagner 1909 19.4
Lajoie 1906 19.3
Collins 1910 18.9
Stone 1906 18.2

Cy Young 1901 17.8
JH Lloyd 1909 17.6 (est)
Devlin 1906 16.9
Wagner 1902 16.6
Walsh 1910 16.4

Wagner 1903 16.3
Lajoie 1903 16.0
Wagner 1901 16.0
Wagner 1904 15.8
Mathewson 1905 15.6

Seymour 1905 15.5
Mathewson 1909 15.2
Turner 1906 15.2
Cy Young 1902 15.0
Mathewson 1908 15.0
   12. DL from MN Posted: October 09, 2015 at 02:49 PM (#5059206)
1910 prelim

1) Napoleon Lajoie
2) Ty Cobb
3) Eddie Collins - postseason bonus doesn't move him any higher but he had a great postseason
4) Ed Walsh
5) John Henry Lloyd
6) Tris Speaker
7) Walter Johnson
8) Russ Ford
9) Honus Wagner - still makes the ballot at age 36
10) Pete Hill

11-15) Sherry Magee, Jack Coombs, Christy Mathewson, Solly Hoffman, Ed Konetchy
16-20) Frank Baker, Donie Bush, Nap Rucker, John Knight, Danny Murphy
   13. Chris Fluit Posted: October 09, 2015 at 06:17 PM (#5059504)
I just noticed that seamheads is down so I won't be able to compile a combined ballot quite yet.
   14. Chris Fluit Posted: October 09, 2015 at 10:25 PM (#5059899)
1910 Prelim- Combined

It's a very AL heavy ballot as the young stars of the junior circuit begin to shine- though one of the old guard still comes out on top.

1. Napoleon Lajoie, 2B/1B, Cleveland Naps
2. Ty Cobb, CF/RF, Detroit Tigers: Cobb outhit Lajoie (206 to 199 OPS+) and wielded the better glove (+8 fielding runs to -1) so how does Lajoie come out on top? It's partly playing time (Lajoie led the AL with 159 games while Cobb had a respectable 140) but mostly position as 2B is more valuable than CF
3. Ed Walsh, P, Chicago White Sox
4. Walter Johnson, P, Washington Senators
5. Jack Coombs, P, Philadelphia Athletics: 1-2-3 in MLB ERA+, 2-1-3 in MLB IP
6. Pete Hill, CF, Chicago Leland Giants: a 327 OPS+ is absolutely nuts
7. Eddie Collins, 2B, Philadelphia Athletics: 152 OPS+ but the +24 fielding runs is really eye-catching
8. Tris Speaker, CF, Boston Red Sox: 170 OPS+ to go along with +8 fielding
9. Sherry Magee, LF/CF, Philadelphia Phillies: NL leading 174 OPS+ and 114 Runs Created
10. Christy Mathewson, P, New York Giants: 2nd in ERA+ (157) and 1st in IP (318)

11. Russ Ford, P, New York Highlanders: 160 ERA+ but 299 innings trails the leaders by quite a lot
12. Honus Wagner, SS, Pittsburgh Pirates: it's an off year for Wagner but it's good enough for third in the NL
13. Frank Wickware, P, Chicago Leland Giants: the best pitcher in the Negro Leagues
14. John Henry Lloyd, SS, Chicago Leland Giants
15. Mordecai Brown, P, Chicago Cubs: 3rd in ERA+ (155) with almost 300 IP (295, to be precise)
16. Solly Hofman, CF/1B, Chicago Cubs: tied for 2nd in OPS+ (154)
17. George Mullin, P, Detroit Tigers
18. King Cole, P, Chicago Cubs
19. Ray Collins, P, Boston Red Sox
20. Larry Doyle, 2B, New York Giants
   15. EricC Posted: October 11, 2015 at 11:18 AM (#5061698)
1910 prelim. Very AL-heavy.

1. Ty Cobb. A close call, but my system has his
quality trumping Lajoie's playing time advantage.
2. Nap Lajoie
3. Ed Walsh
4. Walter Johnson
5. Jack Coombs
6. Eddie Collins
7. Pete Hill. Seamheads data very useful. Top offensive player
on the top NeL team with good winter ball shoulder seasons.
Wondering if he deserves to be higher.
8. Russ Ford. Seems overrated by WAR.
9. Sherry Magee
10. Christy Mathewson
   16. DL from MN Posted: October 13, 2015 at 03:34 PM (#5064220)
The question I have to answer when ranking Pete Hill in 1910 is how good he was as a hitter. I currently have him estimated at 5.6 Batting Wins Above Average. Here are the 1910 leaders

Player BWAA1 OPS+
Lajoie 9.3 199
Cobb 8.7 206
Magee 7.1 174
Speaker 6.2 170
Hill ??? 327 (NGL 102 PA)
Collins 5.0 152
Hoffman 4.6 154
Snodgrass 4.5 154
Konetchy 4.4 144

I guess my question is what to translate a 327 OPS+ into and how much to regress it. His shoulder seasons in Cuba and surrounding NGL seasons are also strong, rating > 200 OPS+. If I assume 75% conversion rate and regressing the other 400 PAs to 200 OPS+ then my guess at his OPS+ would be at least 170. I am assuming he's a better fielder than Magee too. I think I could comfortably put him offensively at the same level as Magee and Speaker this season but not as high as Cobb and Lajoie seeing as they were producing 200 OPS+ seasons in the American League.

JH Lloyd had a 195 OPS+ and I'm basically translating his offense at the 150 OPS+ level (or make Snodgrass a SS) which ranks him higher than Wagner who put up a 133 OPS+.
   17. Yardape Posted: October 13, 2015 at 05:51 PM (#5064460)
Kling might be the most underrated factor.


I agree. I've never gotten around to fleshing it out as well as I'd like, but I think Kling has a decent case to make our current HoM ballots. I probably won't get this done in time for this year's election either, unfortunately.
   18. DL from MN Posted: October 16, 2015 at 01:46 PM (#5068619)
1910 World Series Stats

Player Name  G  AB  R  H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO  BA  OBP  SLG  OPS  SB  E
Home Run Baker  5  22  6  9  3  1  0  4  2  1  .409  .458  .636  1.095  0  2
Chief Bender  2  6  1  2  0  0  0  1  1  1  .333  .429  .333  .762  0  0
Eddie Collins  5  21  5  9  4  0  0  3  2  0  .429  .478  .619  1.097  4  0
Jack Coombs  3  13  0  5  1  0  0  3  0  3  .385  .385  .462  .846  0  2 
Danny Murphy  5  20  6  8  3  0  1  9  1  0  .400  .429  .700  1.129  1  0

Solly Hofman  5  15  2  4  0  0  0  2  4  3  .267  .421  .267  .688  0  0
Frank Schulte  5  17  3  7  3  0  0  2  2  3  .412  .474  .588  1.062  0  0
Jimmy Sheckard  5  14  5  5  2  0  0  1  7  2  .357  .571  .500  1.071  1  1
Joe Tinker  5  18  2  6  2  0  0  0  2  2  .333  .400  .444  .844  1  1

Pitcher Name  G  GS  ERA  W  L  SV  CG  IP  H  R  ER  BB  SO  WHIP
Chief Bender  2  2  1.93  1  1  0  2  18.2  13  5  4  4  14  0.911  
Jack Coombs  3  3  3.33  3  0  0  3  27.0  24  10  10  14  17  1.407

Mordecai Brown  3  2  5.50  1  2  0  1  18.0  23  16  11  7  14  1.667
King Cole  1  1  3.38  0  0  0  0  8.0  10  3  3  3  5  1.625  


Everyone hit for the Athletics, even the pitchers. Coombs was adequate but lots of walks.
   19. DL from MN Posted: October 22, 2015 at 10:41 AM (#5075369)
The "All-Chicago" team versus the "All-Philadelphia" and "All New York" teams are pretty interesting in 1910 because all the NGL talent was concentrated in Chicago.

All-Chicago
C - Johnny Kling (Cubs)
1B - Frank Chance (Cubs)
2B - Johnny Evers (Cubs)
SS - John Henry Lloyd (Leland Giants)
3B - Joe Tinker (Cubs better than any actual 3B)
LF - Pete Hill (Leland Giants)
CF - Solly Hoffman (Cubs)
RF - Frank Schulte (Cubs)

SP - Ed Walsh (White Sox)
SP - Mordecai Brown (Cubs)
SP - King Cole (Cubs)
SP - Frank Wickware (Leland Giants)
SP - Rube Foster (Leland Giants)
SP - Joe Williams (Giants)

I think the Leland Giants beat the White Sox if Walsh isn't pitching.

All-Philadelphia
C - Jack Lapp (Athletics)
1B - Bill Pierce (Giants)
2B - Eddie Collins (Athletics)
SS - Mike Doolan (Phillies)
3B - Frank Baker (Athletics)
LF - Sherry Magee (Phillies)
CF - Rube Oldring (Athletics)
RF - Danny Murphy (Athletics)

SP - Jack Coombs (Athletics)
SP - Earl Moore (Phillies)
SP - Chief Bender (Athletics)
SP - George McQuillan (Phillies)
SP - Cy Morgan (Athletics)
SP - Lee Wade (Giants)

I hate having to leave off a guy named Bristol Robotham Lord

All-New York

C - Chief Myers (Giants)
1B - Fred Merkle (Giants)
2B - Larry Doyle (Giants)
SS - Johnny Knight (Highlanders)
3B - Art Devlin (Giants)
LF - Charles Earle (Royal Giants)
CF - Fred Snodgrass (Giants)
RF - Zack Wheat (Superbas)

SP - Russ Ford (Highlanders)
SP - Christy Mathewson (Giants)
SP - Nap Rucker (Superbas)
SP - Doc Scanlan (Superbas)
SP - Cy Barger (Superbas)
SP - Louis Drucke (Giants)
   20. toratoratora Posted: October 30, 2015 at 09:41 AM (#5083029)
Tora's 1910 prelim ballot. The usual blend of WAR systems.
No adjustments of any kind.

1-Ty Cobb
2-Eddie Collins
3-Ed Walsh
4-Napoleon Lajoie
5-Walter Johnson
6-Russ Ford
7-Sherry Magee
8-Tris Speaker
9-Jack Coombs
10-Christy Mathewson

11-Nap Rucker
11-Solly Hofman
11-Honus Wagner

(I have a three way tie for 11th and no one scored any more points so for now there's only 13 on my ballot. I suspect NL players will round me out once I look into them.)
   21. caiman Posted: November 01, 2015 at 01:47 AM (#5085074)
Here's my top 10 as per RPA run value:

1. Ty Cobb 57.98 runs
2. Sherry Magee 55.37 runs
3. Nap Lajoie 54.93 runs
4. Tris Speaker 41.43 runs
5. Ed Walsh 40.69 runs
6. Russ Ford 38.40 runs
7. Walter Johnson 37.28 runs
8. Fred Snodgrass 36.66 runs
9. Eddie Collins 31.04 runs
10. Ed Konetchy 30.51 runs
   22. DL from MN Posted: November 02, 2015 at 09:53 AM (#5086573)
caiman - do you want me to post in the ballot thread?
   23. Yardape Posted: November 03, 2015 at 06:05 PM (#5087919)
Whew, I finally got one done and I don't think I missed anyone important. My ballot ends up very pitcher-friendly, so much so that I make some small adjustments - still a lot of pitchers on the list though.

1. Ty Cobb - Best player in baseball
2. Eddie Collins - I have him close to Lajoie, and the small World Series bump pushes him past.
3. Nap Lajoie - Then a big gap before any other hitters
4. Walter Johnson - Best ML pitcher
5. Ed Walsh - Not that far behind Big Train
6. Pete Hill - It's hard to know exactly what to do with the numbers he put up against very ragged competition, but they were great numbers, he has a track record and his Cuban play is also good.
7. Jose Mendez - I actually feel a little better about his numbers, as they came in the Cuban League and the American Series, which was probably a higher-quality league than the teams Hill produced against in his summer season. Mendez also pitched well in the American Series. The very short season means he gets regressed, of course, otherwise he could have ended up on top of the ballot, or at least on top of the pitchers.
8. Christy Mathewson
9. Jack Coombs
10. Russ Ford - Three more pitchers to round out the bottom of the ballot. All were very good. It seems possible to me that I am overrating pitchers in this time - on the other hand, I don't see any other hitters that are just screaming out to be on the ballot, so maybe it was just a big year for pitchers. Maybe Magee? But I think I'll stick with the pitchers.

I should be back tomorrow to post in the ballot thread.

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