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Thursday, January 03, 2019

Most Meritorious Player: 1912 Discussion

Tris Speaker and the Boston Red Sox defeated the New York Giants in the World Series. Pete Hill and the Chicago American Giants were the top black barnstorming team.

Vote for 10.

Player			SH WS		BBR WAR
Tris Speaker		51.7		10.1
Joe Jackson		37.1		9.5
Frank Baker		38.8		9.3
Ty Cobb			38.7		9.2
Eddie Collins		36.9		8.8
Honus Wagner		35.9		8.0
Heinie Zimmerman	34.6		7.1
Larry Gardner		28.6		5.8
Johnny Evers		27.3		6.0
Chief Meyers		22.0		4.6
Bill Sweeney		23.3		5.3
Napoleon Lajoie		21.8		5.3
Stuffy McInnis		24.3		5.7
Clyde Milan		32.3		5.4
Amos Strunk		18.3		4.1
Buck Herzog		20.9		2.9
Donie Bush		18.5		5.0
Larry Doyle		28.8		5.0
Dode Paskert		24.1		3.7
Morrie Rath		25.2		4.0
Max Carey		23.5		3.0
Eddie Foster		25.0		5.4
Sam Crawford		23.2		4.7
Ed Konetchy		22.4		3.8
Chief Wilson		23.9		4.0
Del Pratt		19.3		3.6
Jimmy Sheckard		21.2		2.6
Joe Tinker		19.7		3.3
Bob Bescher		24.4		3.7
Duffy Lewis		21.4		2.5
Jack Barry		16.4		4.1

Pete Hill		12.4		2.4
Hurley McNair		7.0		1.5
Bruce Petway		3.3		0.9
Louis Santop		1.4		0.4
Jesse Barber		12.0		2.3
John Henry Lloyd	4.8		1.2
Grant Johnson		2.6		0.8
Wesley Pryor		8.6		1.5
Ben Taylor		2.4		0.2
Bingo DeMoss		1.0		0.4

Pitcher			SH WS		BBR WAR
Walter Johnson		47.8		14.8
Ed Walsh		39.1		12.2
Joe Wood		43.3		11.5
Nap Rucker		22.9		8.3
Christy Mathewson	30.3		8.0
Pete Alexander		24.1		6.4
Slim Sallee		20.7		5.4
George Suggs		22.8		5.1
Rube Marquard		25.2		5.9
Ray Collins		18.6		5.9
Claude Hendrix		27.8		6.1
Jack Warhop		17.0		7.0
Vean Gregg		23.0		7.1
Art Fromme		21.8		4.4
Larry Cheney		24.9		4.9
Jeff Tesreau		22.0		4.7
Jean Dubuc		19.0		4.8
Eddie Plank		23.5		5.1
Eppa Rixey		13.9		4.4
Russ Ford		16.1		5.5
Bob Groom		25.5		4.0
Buck O'Brien		23.8		4.9
Howie Camnitz		21.8		4.6
Rube Benton		20.2		2.9
Hugh Bedient		20.0		4.3
Fred Blanding		18.5		4.8
Hank Robinson 		16.6		4.4

Joe Williams		10.9		2.4
Dick Redding		6.4		1.5
Frank Wickware		5.0		1.5
Rube Foster		6.6		1.2
Bill Lindsay		7.5		2.2
DL from MN Posted: January 03, 2019 at 01:12 PM | 17 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. DL from MN Posted: January 03, 2019 at 01:56 PM (#5802086)
There wasn't really a Negro League in 1912 and all of the WAR calculations are going to favor the players who had the most documented games.

That said it appears that Pete Hill had his best season and was the best hitter in black baseball. Smokey Joe Williams was the best black pitcher and shut out a team of New York Giants and Highlanders in a postseason exhibition.

Some Eric C MLEs for the players on the list:

Player Age Lg Pos   PA Rbat Rbaser Rdp Rfield Rpos RAA   WAA  Rrep RAR   WAR
===========================================================================
P Hill  29 NL CF   580   19    0    0     2    -3   18   1.9   18   36   3.7 (MLE best seasons do not align with Seamheads)
Taylor  23 NL  1B  610   29    0       4   - 4   29   2.9   19   48   4.9
McNair  23 NL  RF  590   35    0     1     - 7   30   3.0   18   49   4.9
Lloyd  28 NL SS    610   32    0    0     2     9   43   4.3   19   62   6.3
GJohnson  39 NL 2B    300    7    0    0     4     0   11   1.1   10   20   2.1
Santop  23 NL  C  360    5    0       0    5   11   1.1   11   22   2.2
Petway 26  NL  C  480  -17    0       2     7  - 8  -0.8  16    8   0.8
Pettus  27 NL 1B    600    1    0    0     6   - 4    3   0.3   19   22   2.3
Pierce  22 NL  1B/C  400  - 2   -1       2     1    0   0.0   12   12   1.3
Moran  34 NL  3B  400   17    0      4     3    23   2.4   12   36    3.7
Poles  24 NL  CF  590   25    1    0     3   - 3    26   2.7   20   47   4.8


                PITCHING          |   BATTING   |  TOTAL
Player AGE   IP  RAA   WAA   WAR  |   PA   WAR  |   WAR
=======================================================
Williams   26  300   52   5.7   8.7  |  100   0.4  |   9.1 (Regressed)
Redding   22  260   45   4.9   7.5  |   87   0.1  |   7.6
JMendez   27  260   26   2.8   5.4  |   87   0.2  |    5.5
Junco   22  220   31   3.4   5.6  |   73  -0.3  |   5.3 
Munoz   31  260   14   1.4   4.1  |   87   0.1  |   4.1 
RFoster   32  220  - 6  -0.6   1.7  |   73   0.3  |   2.1

   2. DL from MN Posted: January 03, 2019 at 02:28 PM (#5802097)
1912 Prelim

1) Tris Speaker - surprised me but he's ahead of the Big Train. Best hitter, best fielder not named Honus.
2) Walter Johnson - best pitcher
3) Joe Jackson - almost hit as well as Speaker.
4) Frank Baker
5) Honus Wagner - BBREF WAR underrates SS, outstanding with the glove
6) Ty Cobb - hit as well as Speaker but nowhere near as good in the field
7) Joe Williams - could be underrating him, would like to see his unregressed MLE
8) Ed Walsh
9) Eddie Collins
10) Dick Redding - relying on his MLE, better rate stats than Wood but fewer innings

11-12) Smokey Joe Wood, Nap Rucker
13) Pete Hill - pretty confident he is the 3rd best CF in baseball this season
14-15) Heinie Zimmerman, Larry Gardner
16-21) Christy Mathewson, Chief Meyers, Bill Sweeney, Jesse Barber, Johnny Evers, John Henry Lloyd
   3. DL from MN Posted: January 03, 2019 at 03:27 PM (#5802127)
My comment about the Chicago American Giants mainly relates to the number of games played and their record. The NY Lincoln Giants were pretty darned good with Redding and Williams pitching to Santop with Lloyd, Taylor and Poles on the roster.
   4. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: January 04, 2019 at 06:00 PM (#5802580)
Prelim:

1) Tris Speaker
2) Walter Johnson
3) Smoky Joe Wood
4) Ty Cobb
5) Ed Walsh
6) Home Run Baker
7) Honus Wagner
8) Joe Jackson
9) Eddie Collins
10) Christy Mathewson
   5. MrC. Posted: January 10, 2019 at 03:57 PM (#5804284)
1912 Preliminary ballot

1. Tris Speaker 12.56 WARR
2. Joe Jackson 12.19 WARR
3. Ed Walsh 12.14 WARR
4. Walter Johnson 11.09 WARR
5. Joe Wood 10.40 WARR
6. Ty Cobb 10.06 WARR
7. Eddie Collins 9.07 WARR
8. Honus Wagner 8.58 WARR
9. Frank Baker 8.49 WARR
10. Joe Williams 7.90 WARR

Rest of the to 15
Heinie Zimmerman
Dick Redding
Christy Mathewson
Jeff Tesreau
Larry Gardner



   6. Michael J. Binkley's anxiety closet Posted: January 10, 2019 at 10:03 PM (#5804398)
1912 prelim:

1. Tris Speaker - wouldn't be the in the top spot without PS bonus.
2. Walter Johnson - MMPitcher
3. Ed Walsh
4. Joe Wood
5. Ty Cobb
6. Joe Williams - NgL MMP
7. Joe Jackson
8. Home Run Baker
9. Eddie Collins
10. Honus Wagner - NL MMP (wow - the AL dominated the best players this year)

11-15. Heinie Zimmerman, Dick Redding, Christy Mathewson (NL MMPitcher), Nap Rucker, Pop Lloyd (NgL MMPosition Player)
   7. DL from MN Posted: January 15, 2019 at 01:07 PM (#5805711)
Looking over the seamheads data on Pete Hill

http://www.seamheads.com/NegroLgs/player.php?playerID=hill-01pet

193 OPS+ is above his 165 average and tops the hitters in the league. Not as good as 1909-1911 but still quite good. Then we see a decline to the 140-150 OPS+ range until the weird outlier in 1919.
   8. DL from MN Posted: January 15, 2019 at 02:00 PM (#5805735)
1912 World Series
Player Name G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SB CS E WPA
Larry Gardner 8 28 4 5 2 1 1 5 2 5 .179 .258 .429 .687 0  3 0.40
Tris Speaker 8 30 4 9 1 2 0 2 4 2 .300 .382 .467 .849 1  2 0.67

Larry Doyle 8 33 5 8 0 0 1 2 3 2 .242 .306 .333 .639 2  5 -0.25
Buck Herzog 8 30 6 12 4 1 0 5 1 3 .400 .438 .600 1.038  2  0 0.56
Chief Meyers 8 28 2 10 0 1 0 3 2 3 .357 .419 .429 .848 1  1 0.18

Pitcher Name G GS ERA W L SV CG IP H R ER BB SO WHIP WPA
Smoky Joe Wood 4 3 4.50 3 1 0 2 22.0 27 11 11 3 21 1.364 0.49

Rube Marquard 2 2 0.50 2 0 0 2 18.0 14 3 1 2 9 0.889 0.96
Christy Mathewson 3 3 0.94 0 2 0 3 28.2 23 11 3 5 10 0.977 -0.49
   9. progrockfan Posted: January 16, 2019 at 08:09 AM (#5805911)
May I ask when the upcoming ballot will close? I'm spending a lot of time on something else, and want to budget enough time to research this vote properly.
   10. progrockfan Posted: January 16, 2019 at 03:05 PM (#5806085)
Um... never mind... I made the time. Here's my 1912 prelim.

1. Eddie Collins. This wasn’t an especially taxing assessment for me. #5 in OPS+ from second base; ridiculous plate selectivity with 101 walks at 3.6 walks per strikeout; brilliant on the basepaths with 61 steals at an 83.6% rate; 1st in putouts, 1st in DPs, 2nd in assists, and astounding range that made him 2nd in fielding percentage despite leading in errors for the only time in his career. I am very surprised at his low rankings from other voters, and suggest a re-assessment on their part. My initial evaluation sees him as comfortably above Speaker. But as always, I am amenable to counter-arguments.

2. Tris Speaker. Absolute killer defense in CF and a scorching bat make him a highly plausible #1, but lesser (though still excellent) plate discipline, below break-even steals, and a less vital (and somewhat less demanding) position in this pre-live ball season place him behind Collins by my lights. GIDP data for both would be invaluable but is unfortunately missing. I’ll be monitoring the debate here closely.

3. Smokey Joe Williams. This is, I think, his best season, and it pains me to not be able to place this immortal pitcher #1. My 1912 Most Meritorious Pitcher and Negro Leagues MVP. For those voters who have ranked Johnson but left Williams off-ballot, I’d personally like to know your justification.

4. Walter Johnson. The Train in one of his better seasons – and that’s saying something.

5. Ty Cobb. The best pure hitter in baseball, but nowhere near Speaker’s defensive equal.

6. John Henry Lloyd. The Chicago Leland-Giants’ player-manager, the Negro Leagues’ top hitter, and possibly their top defender as well. I may well be under-ranking him in my prelim, and could see him moving as high as #4.

7. Shoeless Joe Jackson. A pure hitter with a decent arm. While I discount his career, I do take pre-1919 individual seasons at their face value. Cobb is clearly superior to my mind.

8. Ed Walsh. An innings eater par excellence, with real relief value to boot.

9. Smoky Joe Wood. Slightly above Walsh’s level per inning, but Walsh has the sheer volume to top him.

10. Home Run Baker. To my eyes, clearly the best MLB infielder not named Collins. Factor in the Negro Leagues, though, and Pop Lloyd is a healthy step ahead.
   11. progrockfan Posted: January 16, 2019 at 03:18 PM (#5806090)
Addendum: I may have to find a home for Pete Hill on my ballot. Completely missed DL's link on him (for which, many thanks DL!).
   12. progrockfan Posted: January 16, 2019 at 10:15 PM (#5806202)
(yawn)

I made a mistake on my prelim – and I'm sure it says something about me (and, hopefully, my commitment to getting this stuff right) that the thought of letting my mistake stand uncorrected for as long as half a day literally drove me out of bed at a stupid hour.

Pete Hill was clearly a superior hitter to Pop Lloyd in 1912. He also had a helluva throwing arm, and while I think I’ll still rank Lloyd over Hill based on my understanding of the quality of Lloyd's defense and the importance of his middle infield position, it's equally clear that both need to be on my ballot.

* * *

On Williams vs. Johnson:

Seamheads cites Bill Linsday – not Smokey Joe – as the top NgL pitcher for 1912. I bow to no one in my admiration for Seamheads, but I can't see this conclusion at all. Linsday has 6 points of ERA+ on Williams, but in 20% less innings. Linsday's K/BB ratio is 1.90 vs. Williams's 4.67. I'm sure I've got the right man there.

I'm equally confident that Williams pitched in dozens of unrecorded games, making raw WAR totals useless as a basis for direct comparison vs. Johnson. In recorded games, Johnson has Williams on K/9 (0.82 to 0.74) and WHIP (0.90 to 0.99), while Williams has Johnson on K/BB (4.67 to 3.99). None of these particular margins are colossal – but by direct numerical comparison, on these and other factors, Johnson does hold an edge on Williams.

I suppose what I see is an inner-circle great (Smokey Joe) at the top of his game, and another inner-circle great (Big Train) who gets there the following year. I acknowledge that I’m allotting Williams a Jamesian nudge (if I might be permitted the adverb) in consequence of this perception. It's quite possible, given the Train's level of dominance, that I've got my 3 and 4 slots reversed. I am however confident that Williams and Johnson both belong in my top four, and I hope I can persuade the electorate to move Smokey Joe into the upper ranks of their ballots, where I believe he clearly belongs.

* * *

On the weight of positional scarcity in my top-of-ballot placement of Eddie Collins:

I hold that if every player in 1912 MLB were simultaneously available to draft, the only logical #1 picks would be Eddie Collins or Walter Johnson. If your team missed out on Tris Speaker, you could still glut yourself on Ty Cobb, who's actually a superior hitter, or Shoeless Joe, nearly the hitter with nearly the outfield arm, or Wahoo Sam Crawford, with a nice bat and far superior baserunning prowess; whereas if you missed out on Collins, your next-best second baseman - Nap Lajoie, probably - represents a huge drop-off across the board: offense, defense, baserunning, selectivity, bat control, durability, you name it. Or choose Johnny Evers instead: different name, same result. 1912 Eddie Collins represents a total package far harder to replace - and therefore, to my way of thinking, of greater overall value - than 1912 Tris Speaker.

Besides which, Eddie was pretty damn good on his own merits, and my placement is (I believe) defensible on multiple additional grounds, several of which I cite in my prelim.

That's my 2¢.
   13. progrockfan Posted: January 16, 2019 at 10:32 PM (#5806208)
And yes, I acknowledge conflating the three outfield slots in my main body paragraph on Eddie Collins, and yes, I know that's an issue for some voters here. God I'm tired. G'night everyone.
   14. Chris Fluit Posted: January 25, 2019 at 09:47 AM (#5808754)
1912 Prelim Ballot

1. Walter Johnson, P, Washington Senators: 243 ERA+ laps the field; 369 IP isn't too shabby either
2. Tris Speaker, CF, Boston Red Sox
3. Ty Cobb, CF, Detroit Tigers: a tight race between the two centerfielders but Speaker gets the edge in playing time and defense
4. Joe Jackson, RF, Cleveland Indians: 2nd to Cobb in OPS+, 2nd to Speaker in RC, +6 defense and 20% time in CF
5. Frank Baker, 3B, Philadelphia Athletics: 174 OPS+ while playing a premium defensive position (3B)
6. Heinie Zimmerman, 3B, Chicago Cubs: best player in the NL
7. Smokey Joe Williams, P, New York Lincoln Giants: 192 ERA+ in 95 IP over 12 documented games
8. Smoky Joe Wood, P, Boston Red Sox 177 ERA+ in 344 IP
9. Christy Mathewson, P, New York Giants: 161 ERA+ in 310 IP
10. Honus Wagner, SS, Pittsburgh Pirates: 3rd in NL OPS+ with 143, adds +20 fielding runs at SS

11. Eddie Walsh, P, Chicago White Sox: 149 ERA+ in astounding 393 IP
12. Pete Hill, CF, Chicago American Giants: 193 OPS+ and above average defense in CF
13. Jesse Barber, SS, Chicago American Giants: 166 OPS+ as a SS but only an average defender with an even 0 fielding
14. Nap Rucker, P, Brooklyn Dodgers: 151 ERA+ in 297 IP
15. Eddie Colins, 2B, Chicago White Sox

16. Jeff Tesreau, P, New York Giants: 173 ERA+ is tops in the NL
17. Bill Lindsay, P, Chicago American Giants: 198 ERA+ in 77 IP but gives back a lot of value by hitting for a 44 OPS+ as a OF
18. Pete Alexander, P, Philadelphia Phillies
19. Chief Meyers, C, New York Giants: 147 OPS+ is 2nd in NL
20. Rube Marquard, P, New York Giants
   15. Chris Fluit Posted: February 04, 2019 at 01:34 PM (#5811928)
I'm having trouble posting to the ballot thread. DL, do you mind moving my prelim over without changes? Thanks!
   16. caiman Posted: February 04, 2019 at 01:41 PM (#5811936)
Was not able to post to the 1912 ballot, so I post here:

Here's the RPA leaders per the number of runs produced above the median:

1. Tris Speaker 53.33 runs
2. Ty Cobb 53.05 runs
3. Shoeless Joe Jackson 52.66 runs
4. Walter Johnson 49.81 runs
5. Smokey Joe Wood 40.39 runs
6. Eddie Collins 39.56 runs
7. Heinie Zimmerman 36.59 runs
8. Home Run Baker 36.56 runs
9. Ed Walsh 33.24 runs
10. Honus Wagner 30.29 runs
11. Christy Mathewson 29.14 runs
12. Jeff Tesreau 25.82 runs
13. Chief Meyers 25.66 runs
14. Sam Crawford 25.60 runs
15. Dode Paskert 22.39 runs
16. Larry Doyle 22.33 runs
17. Larry Cheney 22.23 runs
18. Nap Lajoie 21.54 runs
19. Johnny Evers 21.28 runs
20. Bob Bescher 20.71 runs
   17. DL from MN Posted: February 07, 2019 at 02:19 PM (#5813309)
Best pitching seasons in the history of the MMP project by my point score

1985 Gooden 21.5
1995 Maddux 21.4
1972 Carlton 21.2
1994 Maddux 20.6
1997 Clemens 19.9
1968 Gibson 19.5
2000 P Martinez 19.5
2009 Greinke 19.1
1902 Waddell 19.1
1912 WALTER JOHNSON 19.1
1944 Trout 19.0
1945 Newhouser 18.8
1963 Koufax 18.7
1946 Feller 18.6
1972 Seaver 18.3
2004 Santana 18.2
1971 Seaver 18.0
1999 P Martinez 18.0
1971 Wood 17.9
2015 Greinke 17.9
1901 Young 17.8
1978 Guidry 17.7
1972 Perry 17.7
1995 R Johnson 17.7
1980 Carlton 17.5
1953 Roberts 17.5

This gets more interesting in 1913

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