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Tuesday, June 05, 2018

Most Meritorious Player: 1944 Discussion

All of the leagues are hollowed out of prime career players.

The Cardinals and Browns met in the Streetcar Series sharing the same home park. The Cardinals won in 6.
The Homestead Grays beat the Birmingham Black Barons 4 games to 1 in the Negro World Series.

Vote for 10.

Player			SH WS		BBR WAR
Stan Musial		36.6		8.8
Snuffy Stirnweiss	36.2		8.5
Lou Boudreau		31.0		8.0
Bobby Doerr		27.1		5.9
Bob Johnson		30.7		6.3
Vern Stephens		34.0		5.2
Stan Spence		32.8		6.0
Jim Russell		30.8		4.8
Bill Nicholson		31.4		6.0
Dixie Walker		33.9		5.7
Johnny Hopp		27.5		5.5
Augie Galan		32.3		6.0
Nick Etten		25.8		5.4
Johnny Lindell		25.9		5.4
Ken Keltner		23.6		5.7
Bob Elliott		27.5		3.9
Mel Ott			25.4		5.3
Frank McCormick		27.0		6.1
Ron Northey		22.3		4.4
Dick Wakefield		22.4		3.9
Roy Cullenbine		23.0		4.0
Ray Mueller		24.1		3.8
Phil Weintraub		20.5		4.3
Buster Adams		21.8		5.0
Whitey Kurowski		20.7		3.7
Marty Marion		18.9		4.7
Tommy Holmes		25.7		4.6
Phil Cavaretta		25.2		3.6
Ray Sanders		21.0		3.6
Dick Siebert		19.4		3.4
Johnny Barrett		25.9		3.8
Eric Tipton		20.0		3.4
Joe Medwick		19.9		4.0

Josh Gibson		17.5		2.5	
Artie Wilson		6.5		1.6
Bonnie Serrell		15.2		1.5
Buck Leonard		18.1		3.1
Sam Jethroe		6.9		1.0
Bill Hoskins		8.7		1.5
Dave Hoskins		13.0		1.9
Ed Steele		4.8		1.5
Roy Campanella		10.2		1.6
Sam Bankhead		11.3		1.2
Cool Papa Bell		13.7		1.7

Pitcher			SH WS		BBR WAR
Dizzy Trout		39.7		11.1
Hal Newhouser		33.3		8.6
Bucky Walters		32.7		6.1
Jim Tobin		22.6		6.3
Rip Sewell		22.7		6.3
Tex Hughson		19.8		5.6
Jack Kramer		21.7		5.4
Mort Cooper		25.1		5.5
Claude Passeau		16.8		5.1
Nels Potter		20.5		5.5
Johnny Niggeling	15.6		4.7
Fritz Ostermueller	18.8		5.7
Ken Raffensberger	18.6		4.4
Bill Voiselle		21.0		4.2
Nate Andrews		18.6		4.6
Bob Muncrief		16.6		4.4
Ed Huesser		20.4		3.9
Ted Wilks		19.8		4.3
Red Munger		16.1		3.7
Hank Borowy		19.7		3.8
Max Lanier		18.4		3.3
Harry Breechen		16.1		3.0

Satchel Paige		4.8		4.4
John Huber		1.5		0.6		
Donald Troy		2.6		1.7
Ray Brown		14.7		4.1
Bill Ricks		10.3		3.1
DL from MN Posted: June 05, 2018 at 06:07 PM | 15 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. DL from MN Posted: June 05, 2018 at 06:33 PM (#5686509)
1944 Prelim

1) Dizzy Trout - hit well for a pitcher too
2) Snuffy Stirnweiss - great glove season
3) Stan Musial
4) Lou Boudreau
5) Satchel Paige - Absolutely dominant in the NGL. Check out his K/BB and RA rate stats.
6) Hal Newhouser
7) Bobby Doerr
8) Bob Johnson - yay!
9) Vern Stephens
10) Stan Spence

11-15) Artie Wilson, Roy Campanella, Jim Russell, Bonnie Serrell, Bill Nicholson - I like the younger NGL position players here
16-21) Dixie Walker, Johnny Hopp, Bucky Walters, Augie Galan, Ray Brown, Nick Etten

Josh Gibson hit well but not as well as 1943 and not much better than Campanella. Several players produced as much offense. His defense was certainly fading at this point and Campy was just 22. Gibson, Leonard and Jethroe are in the next group of players with Mel Ott and Ken Keltner.


   2. DL from MN Posted: June 06, 2018 at 04:38 PM (#5687207)
Paige numbers in 1944
W L   W% G GS GF CG SHO SV IP R ER    H BB K ERA ERA+
6 3 .667 14 14 5  53 0 87.2 13 7    53 18 85 0.72 461 


The unearned runs take the air out a little but Satchel was clearly the best pitcher in the Negro Leagues in 1944.
IP/start = 6.25
K/9 = 8.7
BB/9 = 1.8
RA = 1.33
   3. DL from MN Posted: June 06, 2018 at 04:44 PM (#5687215)
Paige MLE

PITCHING | BATTING | TOTAL
YEAR AGE IP RAA WAA WAR | PA WAR | WAR
=========================================================
1944 37 240 35 4.2 6.5 | 80 0.0 | 6.5
   4. Chris Fluit Posted: June 08, 2018 at 06:35 PM (#5688586)
test
   5. DL from MN Posted: June 12, 2018 at 12:05 PM (#5690377)
Dan R league standard deviation adjustments are 0.953 for the AL and 0.95 for the NL. Not a significant difference between leagues but both leagues had fairly high standard deviations in run scoring.

Interesting that Dan R has Stirnweiss as a 2 FWAA2 fielder but also has Musial at 1.8 FWAA2.
   6. DL from MN Posted: June 12, 2018 at 12:14 PM (#5690391)
I have this pitching season by Dizzy Trout as the best of the 1940s so far and it isn't really close. If measuring based on impact on a pennant I wouldn't adjust however it probably should be adjusted for degree of difficulty when judging across eras.

Best pitching seasons in the history of the MMP project by my point score

1985 Gooden 21.5
1995 Maddux 21.4
1972 Carlton 21.2
1994 Maddux 20.6
1997 Clemens 19.9
1968 Gibson 19.5
2000 P Martinez 19.5
2009 Greinke 19.1
1902 Waddell 19.1
1944 TROUT 19.0
1963 Koufax 18.7
1972 Seaver 18.3
2004 Santana 18.2
1971 Seaver 18.0
1999 P Martinez 18.0
1971 Wood 17.9
2015 Greinke 17.9
1901 Young 17.8
1978 Guidry 17.7
1972 Perry 17.7
1995 Johnson 17.7
1980 Carlton 17.5
1953 Roberts 17.5
   7. Neal Traven Posted: June 12, 2018 at 12:50 PM (#5690433)
1971 Carlton? You're off by a year.
   8. DL from MN Posted: June 13, 2018 at 12:57 PM (#5691266)
Comparing Satchel Paige to Dizzy Trout

IP/start = 8.5
K/9 = 3.7
BB/9 = 2.1
RA = 2.66

Trout wasn't dominating by strikeout like Paige, he was just pitching every available inning. Who makes their ace pitch in relief between complete game wins? Trout pitched 9 games in relief and there were 5 outings longer than an inning!

"During the season Dizzy pitched 28 times with two or less days of rest"

https://www.detroitathletic.com/blog/2012/10/05/revisiting-dizzy-trouts-remarkable-1944-season/

Here are the same numbers for Newhouser for comparison

IP/start = 8.6
K/9 = 5.4 (league leading)
BB/9 = 2.9
RA = 2.71
   9. DL from MN Posted: June 13, 2018 at 01:32 PM (#5691301)
More from Trout's amusing SABR bio

https://sabr.org/bioproj/person/633b991e

Trout and Newhouser blossomed into a pair of aces in 1944. Riding their arms and the bat of Dick Wakefield after he was discharged from the Navy in midseason, the Tigers climbed from seventh place in July to a fight for the pennant that went down to the last day. Manager Steve O’Neill started Trout and Newhouser in 17 of 28 September games.


Newhouser’s 29 victories and Trout’s 27 were the most by two teammates since the deadball era. Trout led the league in ERA, shutouts, complete games, and innings pitched, with Newhouser second in all categories. Newhouser led in wins and strikeouts, with Trout second in both. Trout’s 33 complete games and 352 1/3 innings were the most by any pitcher in 21 years. For good measure, he led AL pitchers in hits, home runs, RBI, assists, and double plays.



The two aces were classified 4-F, medically unfit for military service. Newhouser had a heart murmur. Trout was disqualified for poor eyesight and hearing. Both men worked in war plants in the offseasons and Trout was an enthusiastic public speaker on behalf of war bonds, the USO, and the Red Cross. Urging civilians to buy as many bonds as they could afford, he told the story of an Indiana farmer who sold a cow for $50. The cow produced only one pint of milk a day, so the disappointed buyer demanded his money back. The seller protested, “She’s giving all she’s got.”18

Trout had given all he had in 1944. The next spring it appeared the brutal workload had caught up with him. He sat down in May for two weeks.
   10. MrC. Posted: June 19, 2018 at 12:16 PM (#5695232)
1944 Prelim

1. Dizzy Trout 11.56 WARR
2. Stan Musial 9.72 WARR
3. Snuffy Stirnweiss 9.69 WARR
4. Hal Newhouser 8.66 WARR
5. Lou Boudreau 6.14 WARR
6. Frank McCormick 6.08 WARR
7. Johnny Lindell 5.86 WARR
8. Rip Sewell 5.82 WARR
9. Buster Adams 5.74 WARR
10. Satchell Paige 5.58 WARR

Rest of top 15
Vern Stephens
Thurman Tucker
Stan Spence
Johnny Hopp
Jim Tobin
   11. bjhanke Posted: June 24, 2018 at 06:42 AM (#5698622)
I have a question. I just found this thread today (Saturday the 24th), in the Featured section. If I just go the BTF, I don't see it anywhere else, but if I click on the 1943 Results thread, then this 1944 discussion appears in Hot Topics. The thing is that, until this year, the discussion, ballot and results threads all appeared in Blogpen. Is this switch intentional? I admit that I was getting worried when I couldn't find it in the Blogpen this close to what is likely the ballot date. Anyway, I'm not complaining, really. I just want to know where to go to find thee MMP threads. - Brock
   12. DL from MN Posted: June 25, 2018 at 09:44 AM (#5699025)
I just want to know where to go to find thee MMP threads.


I usually just go straight to

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/hall_of_merit/
   13. DL from MN Posted: June 26, 2018 at 11:58 AM (#5699803)
1944 World Series
Player Name  G  AB  R  H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO  BA  OBP  SLG  OPS  SB  CS  E  
Johnny Hopp 6 27 2 5 0 0 0 0 0 8 .185 .185 .185 .370 0 0 0
Whitey Kurowski 6 23 2 5 1 0 0 1 1 4 .217 .250 .261 .511 0 0 0
Marty Marion 6 22 1 5 3 0 0 2 2 3 .227 .292 .364 .655 0 0 0 
Stan Musial 6 23 2 7 2 0 1 2 2 0 .304 .360 .522 .882 0 0 1
Ray Sanders 6 21 5 6 0 0 1 1 5 8 .286 .423 .429 .852 0 0 0

Vern Stephens 6 22 2 5 1 0 0 0 3 3 .227 .320 .273 .593 0 0 3

Pitcher Name  G  GS  ERA  W  L  SV  CG  IP  H  R  ER  BB  SO  WHIP
Mort Cooper 2 2 1.13 1 1 0 1 16.0 9 2 2 5 16 0.875 
Ted Wilks 2 1 5.68 0 1 1 0 6.1 5 4 4 3 7 1.263

Jack Kramer 2 1 0.00 1 0 0 1 11.0 9 2 0 4 12 1.182 
Bob Muncrief 2 0 1.35 0 1 0 0 6.2 5 1 1 4 4 1.350 
   14. Chris Fluit Posted: June 30, 2018 at 04:41 PM (#5702760)
1944 Prelim Ballot

1. Dizzy Trout, P, Detroit Tigers: MLB-leading 167 ERA+ and league-lapping 352 IP
2. Stan Musial, RF/CF, St. Louis Cardinals: It took a stellar season by Trout to snag the top spot from The Man
3. Satchel Paige, P, Kansas City Monarchs: 461 ERA+ is pretty amazing, even with regression based on playing time and quality of competition
4. Hal Newhouser, P, Detroit Tigers: 159 ERA+ and 312 IP
5. Snuffy Stirnweiss, 2B, New York Yankees: the great war-inflated season with a 139 OPS+ and +15 defense
6. Lou Boudreau, SS, Cleveland Indians: 145 OPS+ and +9 fielding
7. Bobby Doerr, 2B, Boston Red Sox: a good year for AL infielders, 165 OPS+ but only -4 fielding to drop Doerr behind Boudreau
8. Buck Leonard, 1B, Homestead Grays: the best bat in the Negro Leagues with a 192 OPS+
9. Bob Johnson, LF, Boston Red Sox: AL-leading 174 OPS+
10. Bucky Walters, P, Cincinnati Reds: Yup, it's a big drop in the NL from Musial at #2

11. Dixie Walker, RF, Brooklyn Dodgers
12. Bill Nicholson, RF, Chicago Cubs
13. Ray Brown, P, Homestead Grays
14. Bill Voiselle, P, New York Giants: 312 IP
15. Stan Spence, CF, Washington Senators
   15. Michael J. Binkley's anxiety closet Posted: July 02, 2018 at 10:59 PM (#5704337)
I logged into my account from the 1944 ballot page, so of course it won’t let me post there right now. So here is my 1944 MMP ballot. DL or someone else, would you please copy/transfer this to the ballot thread. Thank you in advance.

1. Snuffy Stirnweiss (26.40)- Sorry, Trout won’t be unanimous. Snuffy gets boosted by low 2b median performance and a lower AL hitter standard deviation.
2. Stan Musial (22.48) - NL MMP
3. Dizzy Trout (21.61) - MMPitcher - brought down in my system by lower fWAR and higher AL pitcher standard deviation.
4. Lou Boudreau (20.91)
5. Josh Gibson (18.49) - NgL MMP
6. Hal Newhouser (17.68)
7. Satchel Paige (15.95) - NgL MMPitcher
8. Bobby Doerr (14.49)
9. Bob Johnson (13.08)
10. Mort Cooper (13.28) - NL MMPitcher

11-15. Tex Hughson, Ken Keltner, Bill Nicholson, Stan Spence, Martin Dihigo.

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