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Friday, January 03, 2014

Most Meritorious Player: 1950 Discussion

Back to the 50’s in 2014. Yankees sweep the Phillies in the World Series. Vote for 10.

Player			SH WS		BBR WAR
Phil Rizzuto		35.4		6.7
Eddie Stanky		29.9		8.1
Jackie Robinson		29.9		7.5
Stan Musial		31.4		7.3
Yogi Berra		32.2		5.6
Andy Pafko		27.0		6.6
Al Rosen		29.1		5.8
Earl Torgeson		31.6		5.9
Larry Doby		30.2		6.6
Andy Seminick		22.4		4.3
Hank Thompson		22.9		5.1
Sid Gordon		28.2		6.3
Hoot Evers		25.5		4.6
Duke Snider		29.7		5.9
Ralph Kiner		22.5		5.6
Joe DiMaggio		29.2		5.3
Del Ennis		26.1		5.0
Dom DiMaggio		24.2		3.8
Ted Williams		19.6		3.9
Roy Campanella		20.8		4.1
Monte Irvin		15.3		3.6
Vic Wertz		26.2		4.3
Alvin Dark		19.3		5.0
Pee Wee Reese		20.7		4.0
George Kell		26.5		4.9
Bob Elliott		26.0		4.6
Jerry Priddy		24.4		4.4



Pitcher 		SH WS		BBR WAR
Ned Garver		24.2		8.2
Robin Roberts		25.9		6.8
Ewell Blackwell		24.8		6.9
Warren Spahn		20.3		5.6
Preacher Roe		21.6		4.8
Art Houtteman		25.8		5.7
Mel Parnell		21.5		5.6
Larry Jansen		24.7		5.3
Murry Dickson		14.9		5.3
Bob Lemon		24.5		4.8
Max Lanier		16.0		4.5
Early Wynn		20.2		4.4
Don Newcombe		21.0		4.4
Whitey Ford		11.1		2.6
Sal Maglie		21.2		4.6
Vern Bickford		19.4		4.5
Bob Feller		19.4		4.0
Ed Lopat		19.5		4.2
Howie Pollet		18.8		4.1

Jim Konstanty		22.4		4.4


 

DL from MN Posted: January 03, 2014 at 05:17 PM | 81 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. shoewizard Posted: January 03, 2014 at 08:43 PM (#4629574)
Ned Garver had 881 career walks and 881 career K's.

In 1950 he had 105 walks vs. 85 K's, but lead the league in ERA+ with 146 and of course WAR with 8.2

The game has changed a little bit.
   2. Chris Fluit Posted: January 03, 2014 at 09:05 PM (#4629588)
I'm pretty well versed in baseball history but Hoot Evers and Vern Bickford are new even to me.
   3. toratoratora Posted: January 03, 2014 at 10:14 PM (#4629654)
In doing my prelim, Art Houtteman had me stumped.
And I'm a guy whose dad grew up 3 blocks from OYS-I was reared on stories of 50's players yet had never heard of the man
   4. DL from MN Posted: January 04, 2014 at 12:33 AM (#4629701)
Any integration casualties? Bus Clarkson hit .302/.384/.468/.852 in Milwaukee playing 59 games at 3B. Willard Brown was in the Mexican Leagues. Luke Easter played a full season in the majors. Artie Wilson hit .311/.367/.387/.753 playing SS for Oakland (did they really play 196 games?!).
   5. DL from MN Posted: January 04, 2014 at 12:47 AM (#4629709)
More info - Willie Mays played for Trenton as a 19 year old. Minnie Minoso hit .339/.405/.539/.945 for San Diego of the PCL - that deserves an MLE. Joe Black was with the Baltimore Elite Giants. Satchel Paige was out of baseball. Quincy Trouppe was in the Mexican Leagues. Buck Leonard was 43.

BTW - I'm leaning toward giving Whitey Ford minor league credit but it won't be enough to get him on-ballot.
   6. DL from MN Posted: January 04, 2014 at 12:53 AM (#4629711)
Monte Irvin played 18 games in the minors in 1950 and destroyed the competition.
   7. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: January 04, 2014 at 01:48 AM (#4629732)
According to his discussion page, Silvio Garcia seems to have done pretty well in 1950. Toni Stone apparently played for the New Orleans Creoles that year. I've no idea what her stats were, but it seemed noteworthy enough to mention.
   8. rudygamble Posted: January 04, 2014 at 03:37 AM (#4629751)
Eddie Stanky's .300/.460/.412 line is one of the most unique lines I've ever seen. The next lowest post-war SLG for someone with a .450+ OBP is Ferris Fain in 1951 at .471. There are only 5 post-war seasons other than Stanky that even meet a .450+ OBP and <.500 SLG and Boggs has 3 of those 5 (with the lowest SLG at .478).
   9. EricC Posted: January 04, 2014 at 12:59 PM (#4629877)
1950 prelim. Postseason hasn't been looked at yet. It's interesting to me that all of the top catchers fielded exclusively as catchers, compared to the 1980s catcher MMP candidates, who usually played some games at other positions.

1. Yogi Berra (C). 135 OPS+ while leading the majors in games caught. First of a string of 7 great seasons.
2. Phil Rizzuto (SS).
3. Robin Roberts (P).
4. Ned Garver (P). AL ERA+ title and could hit a little. Voting this high for a 13-18 pitcher would have gotten me locked away in 1950, but, still, his W/L % was better than the Brown's overall W/L %.
5. Stan (the Man) Musial (1B).
6. Ewell Blackwell (P).
7. Jackie Robinson (2B).
8. Eddie Stanky (2B).
9. Sid Gordon (LF).
10. Larry Jansen (P).

11. Earl Torgeson (1B); 12. Art Houtteman (P); 13. Larry Doby (CF); 14. Andy Seminick (C); 15. Vic Wertz (RF).
   10. toratoratora Posted: January 04, 2014 at 01:39 PM (#4629920)
Eddie Stanky's .300/.460/.412 line is one of the most unique lines I've ever seen. The next lowest post-war SLG for someone with a .450+ OBP is Ferris Fain in 1951 at .471. There are only 5 post-war seasons other than Stanky that even meet a .450+ OBP and <.500 SLG and Boggs has 3 of those 5 (with the lowest SLG at .478).

At age 23, Eddie Yost almost joined that club,posting a.295/.440/.405 in 1950.

1950 was a strange year for BB. The top ten are Stanky, Yost, Fain, Kiner, Torgeson,Pesky,Joost,Rosen,Doby and Groth.Lots of non power hitters on that list.
   11. Mr. C Posted: January 04, 2014 at 03:48 PM (#4630043)
1950 All Star Teams

NL

C Andy Seminick
1B Earl Torgeson
2B Eddie Stanky
3B Hank Thompson
Ss Pee Wee Reese
RF Del Ennis
CF Duke Snider
LF Sid Gordon
Starters: Robin Roberts, Ewell Blackwell, Warren Spahn, Max Lanier
Reliever: Jim Konstanty IMHO, however, was not deserving of the MVP award. (judging from the stats)

AL
C Yogi Berra
1b Luke Easter
2B Jerry Priddy
3B Al Rosen
SS Phil Rizzuto
RF Vic Wertz
CF Larry Doby
LF Ted Williams
Starters: Early Wynn, Art Houtteman, Bob Lemon, Ned Garver (both Wynn and Lemon made this list because they could not only pitch well, but were very good hitters)
RP: Tom Ferrick

As a 3 year old, I don't remember much of the 1950 season :-). But as a 10 year old(when I do have some recollection of MLB), many of these same players still were stars. However, I do have to admit that I don't even have name recognition of Jerry Priddy and Tom Ferrick.

   12. DL from MN Posted: January 04, 2014 at 03:55 PM (#4630048)
1950 World Series credit

Player G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SB CS E
Berra  4 15 2 3 0 0 1 2 2 1 .200 .294 .400 .694 0 0 0
DiMaggio 4 13 2 4 1 0 1 2 3 1 .308 .471 .615 1.086 0 0 0 
Rizzuto 4 14 1 2 0 0 0 0 3 0 .143 .294 .143 .437 1 0 0 

Ennis  4 14 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 .143 .200 .214 .414 0 0 0 


Konstanty and Lopat each got a hit too.
   13. DL from MN Posted: January 04, 2014 at 03:57 PM (#4630050)
Pitcher  G GS ERA W L SV CG IP H ER BB SO WHIP
WhFord 1 1 0.00 1 0 0 0 8.2 7 0 1 7 0.923 
ELopat 1 1 2.25 0 0 0 0 8.0 9 2 0 5 1.125 
Reynolds 2 1 0.87 1 0 1 1 10.1 7 1 4 7 1.065

Roberts 2 1 1.64 0 1 0 1 11.0 11 2 3 5 1.273 
Konstanty 3 1 2.40 0 1 0 0 15.0 9 4 4 3 0.867
   14. Chris Fluit Posted: January 04, 2014 at 04:01 PM (#4630055)
Mr. C, I'm surprised that you don't have room for Musial on your all NL team.
   15. Misirlou's been working for the drug squad Posted: January 04, 2014 at 04:11 PM (#4630059)
Mr. C, I'm surprised that you don't have room for Musial on your all NL team.


He should obviously be on the team somewhere, but in 1950, he played all over the place: 69 games at 1st, 57 in left, 13 in center, 11 in right. It's probable that those other guys all had more value at their particular position than Stan.
   16. Mr. C Posted: January 04, 2014 at 06:50 PM (#4630157)
Considering Musial's raw stats for 1950, I was also surprised that he did not rate better. Looking more closely, I found two things which made my score less than his Bref WAR.

1. His value added runs were about 10 runs less than his batter runs as calculated at Bref.

2. DRA did not like Musial as an outfielder at all. After averaging TZ and DRA, Musial's defense score dropped from -2 to -12.5.

These two issues made a difference in his WAR by more than 2 wins.

There is always a question as to the accuracy of the defensive numbers (at least this far back in time), but if we are to consider them at all, I think DRA and TZ give as good an estimate as anything else.

   17. bjhanke Posted: January 04, 2014 at 08:23 PM (#4630219)
Oh, boy. This one is going to be a minefield. I was 2 years old in 1950. I remember almost all of the guys on the header list, but my memories are all from after 1954, except for the perennial All-Stars. Jerry Priddy came up through the Yankee farm system as Phil Rizzuto's second base partner. If you look at their minor league numbers, it looks like Priddy was better than Phil. Something went wrong after he got to the majors, and I don't know what that was, but it cost Jerry his chance at stardom. But even I don't remember than name Tom Ferrick.

For tora (#10), what you are looking at here is the last gasp of having walks just take over the game, which is what happened after WWII. All kinds of guys took 100+ walks, including Ferris Fain, a 1B who had no power to offer, and Eddie "The Walking Man" (yes, that was his actual nickname during his career) Yost. Yost actually had some power, but he played many years in Washington, where the question was whether Griffith ballpark in Washington was a harder power park than Old Comiskey in Chicago, or the reverse. They were both miserable parks to try to hit homers in.

When Stan Musial came up, he had CF defensive skills, but Terry Moore had the CF position under lock and key. As an outfielder, Stan was very very good, still playing some CF in 1950s. What the systems who rank him low on glove are seeing is that he was NOT a real good 1B, and should probably never have been put there. But the Cardinal managers in the 1950s were, um, a bit weak, and they kept thinking that Stan was too old to play anywhere but 1B. - Brock Hanke
   18. DanG Posted: January 05, 2014 at 09:57 PM (#4631023)
Few teams employed a regular closer. Only four pitchers had 25+ GF (Konstanty, Ferrick, Harris, Page); those same four were the only ones with 10+ saves. A lot of pitchers were doing double duty - there were 18 pitchers with both 10 GF and 10 GS.

Rk          Player WAR ERASV    WPA  WHIP GF GS    IP Age  Tm Lg  G  W L  ERA   BA OPS+
1    Jim Konstanty 4.7  151 22  5.179 1.039 62  0 152.0  33 PHI NL 74 16 7 2.66 .202   52
2        Al Brazle 2.4  104  6  2.200 1.628 20 12 164.2  36 STL NL 46 11 9 4.10 .295   91
3     Howie Judson 1.8  114  0 
-0.557 1.500 18  3 112.0  24 CHW AL 46  2 3 3.94 .253   55
4      Frank Smith 1.8  110  3 
-0.078 1.235 19  4  90.2  22 CIN NL 38  2 7 3.87 .217   50
5      Tom Ferrick 1.2  119 11  0.458 1.264 32  0  80.2  35 TOT AL 46  9 7 3.79 .244   48
6       Luis Aloma 1.1  119  4 
-0.516 1.483 21  0  87.2  27 CHW AL 42  7 2 3.80 .233   73
7        Hal White 1.0  103  1 
-0.740 1.450 18  8 111.0  31 DET AL 42  9 6 4.54 .239   67
8        Al Benton 1.0  121  4 
-0.335 1.381 13  0  63.0  39 CLE AL 36  4 2 3.57 .244   90
9    Dutch Leonard 0.7  111  6  0.626 1.311 21  1  74.0  41 CHC NL 35  5 1 3.77 .248   89
10   Mickey Harris 0.7   94 15  1.861 1.418 43  0  98.0  33 WSH AL 53  5 9 4.78 .246   92 
   19. Morty Causa Posted: January 05, 2014 at 10:50 PM (#4631051)
Ted Williams didn't do too bad for someone who suffered a serious injury mid-season, underwent major surgical repair, and came back unable to perform at his usual level. Although offensively he was still pretty damn good. I wonder if management ever thought about how they were taking a big chance at deep-sixing his career brining him back to finish the season like that?
   20. DL from MN Posted: January 06, 2014 at 11:45 AM (#4631258)
1950 prelim

1) Ned Garver
2) Phil Rizzuto
3) Eddie Stanky
4) Jackie Robinson
5) Stan Musial
6) Yogi Berra
7) Andy Pafko
8) Al Rosen
9) Earl Torgeson
10) Robin Roberts

11-15) Ewell Blackwell, Larry Doby, Andy Seminick, Hank Thompson, Warren Spahn
16-20) Sid Gordon, Preacher Roe, Art Houtteman, Hoot Evers, Duke Snider

At the moment I'm believing the defensive adjustments for Garver. Can anyone explain why I shouldn't?
   21. Davo Dozier Posted: January 06, 2014 at 12:16 PM (#4631292)
#2--
I'm pretty well versed in baseball history but Hoot Evers and Vern Bickford are new even to me.
Much like Harry Steinfeldt and the 1906 Cubs, Vern Bickford's contributions to the pennant-winning 1948 Boston Braves were lost to baseball history due to nothing more than his having a last name that didn't rhyme with anything else.
   22. DL from MN Posted: January 06, 2014 at 12:32 PM (#4631307)
The 1950 St. Louis Browns have two guys with a positive dWAR - Sherm Lollar +1 (a good defensive catcher) and Dick Kokos who put up a +4. Between Upton, DeMars, Friend, Lenhardt and Stirnweiss the infielders put up a -63 rField.

I'm willing to give some of Garver's credit to Lollar but that was a bad infield.
   23. DL from MN Posted: January 06, 2014 at 12:35 PM (#4631312)
Garver's batting line: .286/.343/.363 .706 OPS for a 78 OPS+
   24. DL from MN Posted: January 06, 2014 at 03:17 PM (#4631477)
Grabbed Minoso's MLE from his thread:


YEAR LG AGE POS AVG  OBP  SLG   G   PA   AB   H   TB  BB
--------------------------------------------------------
1950 NL 25  OF .307 .385 .439 136  581  515 158  226  66
========================================================
              
Here's the OPS+ and WS

YEAR LG AGE POS AVG  OBP  SLG ops+ sfws
---------------------------------------
1950 NL 25  OF .307 .385 .439 116  22.2
========================================



That's a good year but Vic Wertz was better.
   25. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: January 06, 2014 at 03:51 PM (#4631511)
DRA did not like Musial as an outfielder at all. After averaging TZ and DRA, Musial's defense score dropped from -2 to -12.5.

I don't really understand DRA. Can someone point me to where it is explained? What is the reason to consider it equally valid as TZ?
   26. Mr. C Posted: January 06, 2014 at 07:50 PM (#4631823)
DRA is a method of evaluating defense developed by Michael Humphreys. It was first explained in a 3 part series on Hardball Times in 2005 and then more fully explained in his book called Wizardry. Baseball Guage's player cards show DRA as the defensive component. It attempts to evaluate all fielders throughout baseball history. As to whether it is equally valid as TZ, that is a difficult question. But from what I have read of the two systems I have respect for both authors and systems.

One area in which I agree with DRA over other systems is the treatment of infield errors. In DRA, an error is considered a play not made and effects the fielding numbers as such. It is not double counted (a further penalty is not given because it was an error).

Of course in 1950, there is much less information available to evaluate defensive prowess or lack thereof so neither system is as valid as defensive systems such as UZR and DRS which have batted ball information available.

IMHO, b oth TZ and DRA have weaknesses because of the lack of adequate data. Because of this I have been averaging the two systems. For 1950, I have been looking at averaging in Clay Davenport's FRAA and Pete Palmer's Defensive metric as well to try to balance out the inaccuracies in the various systems.
   27. BobD Posted: January 06, 2014 at 09:30 PM (#4631883)
Yes - Musial superb fielder but with weak, yet accurate arm à la Barry Bonds.
   28. Mr. C Posted: January 07, 2014 at 10:44 AM (#4632120)
1950 Preliminary Ballot

Batters: start with RA (using value added runs), adjust for park, position and defense (average of TZ, DRA, FRAA and Palmer's defensive runs above average) Convert adjusted RAA to wins. Add 60% of normal Runs above replacement to get WARR (wins above reduced replacement)

Pitchers: start with RA (using value added runs) adjust for quality of opposition, park, and team defense (average of TZ, DRA, FRAA) Convert adjusted RAA to wins. Add 60% of normal runs above replacement to get WARR (wins above reduced replacement)

1. Al Rosen 6.68 WARR
2. Eddie Stanky 6.22 WARR
3. Robin Roberts 6.12 WARR
4. Jackie Robinson 5.71 WARR
5. Larry Doby 5.64 WARR
6. Warren Spahn 5.46 WARR
7. Duke Snider 5.45 WARR
8. Andy Pafko 5.41 WARR
9. Ewell Blackwell 5.32 WARR
10. Phil Rizutto 5.26 WARR

Rest of the top 20
Jerry Priddy
Yogi Berra
Max Lanier
Preacher Roe
Earl Torgeson
Andy Semenick
Hank Thompson
Early Wynn
Dom Dimaggio
Larry Janzen

Comment on Ned Garver: Garver's value added runs above average were much lower than RAA on Bref. It appears, that many of the runs that he did give up were in important situations.

   29. Moeball Posted: January 07, 2014 at 10:56 AM (#4632128)
Jerry Priddy came up through the Yankee farm system as Phil Rizzuto's second base partner. If you look at their minor league numbers, it looks like Priddy was better than Phil. Something went wrong after he got to the majors, and I don't know what that was, but it cost Jerry his chance at stardom.


Brock - I believe Bill James has a chapter on Priddy in his HOF book. It details the strange career and, indeed, strange life of Jerry Priddy. He's a real "What if?" guy. Too bad. Part of the problem was that when Priddy came up, the Yankees already had Joe Gordon at second so Priddy was pretty much screwed from the start.

Ted Williams didn't do too bad for someone who suffered a serious injury mid-season, underwent major surgical repair, and came back unable to perform at his usual level. Although offensively he was still pretty damn good. I wonder if management ever thought about how they were taking a big chance at deep-sixing his career brining him back to finish the season like that?


The really weird thing was how Williams hurt his elbow in the first place. The story is that he injured it during the AS game, making a great leaping catch against the wall to rob Ralph Kiner, but whacking the elbow pretty hard when crashing into the wall. Given Ted's usual lackadaisical attitude towards fielding (or so it was reported by the Knights of the Keyboard during his career :)), this was kind of a strange thing to happen.
   30. DL from MN Posted: January 07, 2014 at 12:34 PM (#4632202)
Forgot to add Andy Seminick to the World Series data but he hit .182/.250/.182 so it doesn't matter a whole lot.
   31. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: January 07, 2014 at 01:46 PM (#4632298)
AL
C Yogi Berra
1b Luke Easter
2B Jerry Priddy
3B Al Rosen
SS Phil Rizzuto
RF Vic Wertz
CF Larry Doby
LF Ted Williams
Starters: Early Wynn, Art Houtteman, Bob Lemon, Ned Garver (both Wynn and Lemon made this list because they could not only pitch well, but were very good hitters)
RP: Tom Ferrick

I put Minnie Minoso on my AL All-Star Team since he was in the Indians' system. That's real minor league credit.

   32. Morty Causa Posted: January 07, 2014 at 02:14 PM (#4632342)
The really weird thing was how Williams hurt his elbow in the first place. The story is that he injured it during the AS game, making a great leaping catch against the wall to rob Ralph Kiner, but whacking the elbow pretty hard when crashing into the wall. Given Ted's usual lackadaisical attitude towards fielding (or so it was reported by the Knights of the Keyboard during his career :)), this was kind of a strange thing to happen.

Like with, oh, say, Reggie Jackson. Williams was extrapolated to be this terrible, non-serious fielder, from idiosyncratic episodes.
   33. bjhanke Posted: January 07, 2014 at 02:38 PM (#4632377)
Bob #) - Hoot Evers has a weird career. He first season, he was trying to settle into the Major leagues. Then came 4(!) years of WWII. Warren Spahn and Johnny
Sain, were the same: Came up as rookies who because instant starters, and then ran into the early parts of the draft, which wanted all the 18-19 boys first Spahn, whose strength was fastballs and sliders, had an enormous career after the war; Sain and Warren came back the same year. Sain threw curve balls in quantity in a time where no one had really thought about what to do (convert the man to throwing sliders), and blew up his arm pretty quickly. Spahn treated the war as an excuse to fill out his body, with the result that he may fit into the category of starting pitcher with weak young player workload.

Evers showed no ill effects from the war and just continued doing what he could, which was hit the hell out of the ball. I you give him FOUR seasons in WWII, he actually looks like an All-Star and was still young, so his defense as pretty good those years. However, he declined rapidly as a glove, while the bat did hold up. He might have been a Hall of Merit case had he had four more seasons than did actually play. - Brock Hanke
   34. DL from MN Posted: January 08, 2014 at 02:14 PM (#4633413)
BBREF WAR has Rizzuto as +11 RField while DanR has +22 in the version I have. He's +21 at Fangraphs too. That's an extra win for Rizzuto due to fielding and another due to lower replacement value at SS for DanR. DanR has Rizzuto a full win better than Stanky and a half win above positional average higher than anyone else (5.9 WAPA versus a runner-up of 5.4 WAPA for Stanky and Robinson). That's AFTER the standard deviation adjustment takes some air out of AL numbers. Stdev adjustments in 1950 are .908 for the AL and .956 for the NL.

If Rizzuto and DiMaggio had swapped postseason stats he'd have my top spot. Ned Garver's hitting pulls him just ahead but Rizzuto is clearly my top position player.

Berra is an interesting dark horse for the top spot since he could get a lot of credit for game calling the Yankee pitching staff but it's not quite enough.
   35. fra paolo Posted: January 08, 2014 at 03:03 PM (#4633521)
My gasts have been truly flabbered by the stolen base numbers. It is perfectly understandable why stealing bases became unfashionable when you look at how unsuccessful the tactic seemed to be.

The NL manages an unhappy 61 per cent success rate, but the AL was stealing at an absolutely disastrous 51 per cent clip.

Looking at it on a positional basis, AL 2Bs, 3Bs, LFs and RFs totals show them being caught more often than they were successful. Only LFs in the NL attained this dubious distinction.

Despite this, and despite being out HRed and doubled by the NL, the AL has a higher wOBA, .293 versus .290
   36. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: January 09, 2014 at 12:57 AM (#4634275)
BBREF WAR has Rizzuto as +11 RField while DanR has +22 in the version I have. He's +21 at Fangraphs too.

I see +11 at Fangraphs also, unless you're including the Positional Adjustment
   37. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: January 09, 2014 at 01:30 AM (#4634291)
I'd like to make sure that I'm reading Dan R's file correctly. I'm using the one in Yahoo! Groups. These are some of the differences I see in dWAR between Dan's file (DRA) and BB-Ref (TZ):

Stan Musial -- -0.9 (TZ), +0.2 (DRA)
Eddie Stanky -- +2.1 (TZ, +0.6 (DRA)
Jackie Robinson -- +1.6 (TZ), +1.1 (DRA)
Yogi Berra -- +0.6 (TZ), +0.4 (DRA)
Phil Rizzuto -- +2.1 (TZ), +2.2 (DRA)
Andy Pafko -- +0.4 (TZ), +0.6 (DRA)
Larry Doby -- +0.3 (TZ), -0.2 (DRA)

Is this right? Where can I find an explanation of how DRA works?
   38. Mr. C Posted: January 09, 2014 at 09:22 AM (#4634353)
Refer to post 26 above. If you google "DRA Michael Humphreys" the articles on Hardball times should come up. I am not familiar with Dan R's file, but the numbers you are showing from his file for DRA above don't look like the same DRA numbers I am using from Baseball Gauge.
   39. Moeball Posted: January 09, 2014 at 10:18 AM (#4634391)
OK - here's my top 10 list:

1)Jackie Robinson - proved that 1949 MVP season was no fluke; was again brilliant for dem Bums
2)Scooter Rizzuto - just a fantastic all-around season for best SS in majors
3)Yogi Berra - breakout season; emerged from DiMaggio's shadow this season
4)Stinky Stanky - a rotten person but this was one heckuva season
5)Stan Musial - ho-hum, even when he's not at the top of his game he's still one of top 5 players in game
6)Al Rosen - spectacular rookie season foretold of even better things to come
7)Ned Garver - went totally unnoticed at the time but this was a great season in obscurity
8)Jim Konstanty - wouldn't normally have a reliever this high but this was a very exceptional season
9)Ewell Blackwell - sensational season for "The Whip" - held righties to .182/.276/.269
10)Larry Doby - this was the year he really came into his own with Cleveland

Well, that's it - a lot of tough choices and on another day I might come up with a different list but I'll go with this for now. A lot of misleading things in stats for 1950 due to weird hi-OBA context and extreme park factors; Vern Stephens and Walt Dropo tied for AL RBI lead with 144 (a shortstop had 144 RBI?) yet couldn't crack the top 10 because Boston was off the charts for offensive context that year. BoSox hit .302 as a team, last team in history to bat over .300 in a season...
   40. fra paolo Posted: January 09, 2014 at 11:23 AM (#4634461)
Phil Rizzuto -- +2.1 (TZ), +2.2 (DRA)

DRA and DanR's numbers are two different things. According to Humphreys' DRA spreadsheets, Rizzuto is +8 for 1950.

Humphreys' DRA is explained in great detail in his book 'Wizardry', which is not easy reading, but well worth the effort. Personally, I think it is probably a bit more accurate than TotalZone, because it will likely handle the extremes of good and bad fielding a bit better.
   41. Morty Causa Posted: January 09, 2014 at 11:30 AM (#4634466)
BoSox hit .302 as a team, last team in history to bat over .300 in a season...

Despite Ted only hitting .317.
   42. fra paolo Posted: January 09, 2014 at 11:32 AM (#4634471)
Since I've got the spreadsheet open, here's a list of the top 16 MLB shortstops in terms of playing time, ranked from best to worst in DRA runs:

Hamner +22
Carrasquel +15
Lipon +13
Smalley Jr +9
Rizzuto +8
Boone +3
Marion +2
Dark +2
Dente -1
Reese -1
Kerr -2
Stephens -3
Stallcup -6
O'Connell -13
Upton -14
Joost -16
   43. DL from MN Posted: January 09, 2014 at 01:04 PM (#4634598)
Moeball - do you want me to just automatically post that to the ballot thread? You keep missing the ballot thread and I haven't counted your last two ballots.
   44. DL from MN Posted: January 09, 2014 at 01:14 PM (#4634610)
I see +11 at Fangraphs also, unless you're including the Positional Adjustment


I probably included the positional adjustment.

Here's the DanR list on the same shortstops

Player FWAA1
Rizzuto 2.2
Kerr 1.0
Stallcup 0.8
Marion 0.7
Carrasquel 0.4
Miller 0.4
Stephens 0.2
O'Connell 0.2
Boudreau 0.1
Hamner 0.1
Boone 0.0
Dente -0.1
Lipon -0.2
Appling -0.2
Reese -0.4
Smalley Sr -0.4
Rojek -0.5
Joost -0.5
Dark -0.7
Upton -0.7
   45. Chris Fluit Posted: January 09, 2014 at 05:16 PM (#4634998)
1950 Prelim- NL Only

1. Stan Musial, 1B/LF, St. Louis Cardinals: 1st in OPS+ with 164, 1st in RC with 144, average defender (-2 fielding runs balanced out by 10 games in center field)
2. Jackie Robinson, 2B, Brooklyn Dodgers: the most complete player in the NL, 139 OPS+ and +10 fielding at the keystone
3. Andy Pafko, CF, Chicago Cubs: 2nd in OPS+ (157) and +4 fielding runs mostly in centerfield
4. Robin Roberts, P, Philadelphia Phillies: 133 ERA+ to go with 304 innings pitched
5. Ralph Kiner, LF, Pittsburgh Pirates: 156 OPS+ and 2nd best RC of 131
6. Duke Snider, CF, Brooklyn Dodgers: 139 OPS+ and 3rd best RC of 130
7. Larry Jansen, P, New York Giants: 136 ERA+ in 275 innings, league leading WHIP of 1.065
8. Ewell Blackwell, P, Cincinnati Reds: 143 ERA+ in 261 innings
9. Roy Campanella, C, Brooklyn Dodgers: 134 OPS+ from behind the plate
10. Eddie Stanky, 2B, Boston Braves: 130 OPS+ and +14 fielding at second base
   46. Chris Fluit Posted: January 09, 2014 at 05:43 PM (#4635043)
1950 Prelim - AL Only

1. Yogi Berra, C, New York Yankees: 135 OPS+ and 120 runs created from a full-time catcher
2. Al Rosen, 3B, Cleveland Indians: 145 OPS+ and +8 fielding runs at the hot corner
3. Larry Doby, CF, Cleveland Indians: league leading 156 OPS+ and +4 fielding runs
4. Phil Rizzuto, SS, New York Yankees: 122 OPS+, top ten 111 runs created, and +11 fielding runs
5. Joe DiMaggio, CF, New York Yankees: 2nd best 151 OPS+ and 121 runs created
6. Ned Garver, P, St. Louis Browns: best pitcher in the AL, league leading 146 ERA+ and 260 innings
7. Luke Easter, 1B, Cleveland Indians: 122 OPS+ and +4 fielding; could have ranked higher with more playing time
8. Vern Stephens, SS, Boston Red Sox: I love shortstops who can hit- 113 OPS+ an 116 runs created
9. George Kell, 3B, Detroit Tigers: 123 OPS+ and 124 runs created at third base
10. Art Houtteman, P, Detroit Tigers: 132 ERA+ in 274 innings
   47. Chris Fluit Posted: January 09, 2014 at 05:47 PM (#4635052)
1950 Prelim- Full

1. Stan Musial, 1B/LF, St. Louis Cardinals
2. Yogi Berra, C, New York Yankees
3. Al Rosen, 3B, Cleveland Indians
4. Larry Doby, CF, Cleveland Indians
5. Jackie Robinson, 2B, Brooklyn Dodgers
6. Andy Pafko, CF, Chicago Cubs
7. Robin Roberts, P, Philadelphia Phillies
8. Phil Rizzuto, SS, New York Yankees
9. Joe DiMaggio, CF, New York Yankees
10. Ralph Kiner, LF, Pittsburgh Pirates

11. Duke Snider, CF, Brooklyn Dodgers
12. Ned Garver, P, St. Louis Browns
13. Larry Jansen, P, New York Giants
14. Ewell Blackwell, P, Cincinnati Reds
15. Roy Campanella, C, Brooklyn Dodgers
16. Eddie Stanky, 2B, Boston Braves
17. Sid Gordon, LF/3B, Boston Braves
18. Luke Easter, 1B, Cleveland Indians
19. Vern Stephens, SS, Boston Red Sox
20. George Kell, 3B, Detroit Tigers
   48. Moeball Posted: January 09, 2014 at 06:30 PM (#4635119)
DL - please just take the above as my ballot. I could re-think this 100 times and get 100 different permutations, so it's better just to stick with what I've got.
   49. toratoratora Posted: January 09, 2014 at 07:36 PM (#4635177)
1950 Prelim.The usual blend of WAR systems. No adjustments yet. No Postseason credit incorporated. Player comments will come on the final ballot.

1-Rizzuto
2-Doby
3-Stanky
4-Berra
5-Musial
6-Roberts
7-Robinson
8-Snider
9-Spahn
10-Raschi

The Best of the Rest

11-Torgeson
12-Garver
13-Blackwell
14-Rosen
15-Houtteman

   50. Sunday silence Posted: January 09, 2014 at 07:39 PM (#4635183)
In doing my prelim, Art Houtteman had me stumped.


My uncle batted against Art Houtteman in the minors and he said Houtteman quick pitched him when he was a rookie. This was probably class B, Hagerstown, I think in '48 or '47.
   51. Davo Dozier Posted: January 09, 2014 at 08:29 PM (#4635229)
Can I make a slight diversion to mention how unbelievably HEALTHY the pennant-winning 1950 Philadelphia Phillies were? I believe it's a record of some sort.

They played 157 games (including 3 ties). Number of games MISSED by position

C: 27 (Andy Seminick)
1B: 3 (Eddie Waitkus)
2B: 12 (Mike Goliat)
3B: 0 (Willie Jones)
SS: 0 (Granny Hamner)
LF: 16 (Dick Sisler)
CF: 6 (Richie Ashburn)
RF: 4 (Del Ennis)

They gave fewer at bats to their non-starters than just about any other team in Major League history, I imagine, and that's a huge part of how they surprised everyone to top the Dodgers and Giants that year. It's an easy game when everyone stays healthy all season long. (Even Andy Seminick's total is obscured by his position; only 4 other catchers had more games played than him.)
   52. DL from MN Posted: January 09, 2014 at 11:41 PM (#4635388)
Wow - 6 prelims and 6 different #1.
   53. Mr. C Posted: January 10, 2014 at 02:17 AM (#4635448)
Back to the drawing board. After my "strange" results for Stan Musial and Ned Garver, I started doing some further investigation (something I should have done earlier :-)) and discovered that in 1950 that there were many games which did not have the play by play data needed to calculate value added runs. So the value added runs above average numbers that I was using only included the games for which play by play data was available. As a result, I must retool my numbers to include all the games; probably going to linear weights of some form.

Since the offensive numbers that I was using for Stan Musial were missing 39 games, I am fairly sure that he will crack the top ten on my revised list.

Goes to show when you go further back in history you have to be careful which stats that you use for decision making.

Good night as I wipe the egg off my face.
   54. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: January 10, 2014 at 01:52 PM (#4635809)
Preliminary using similar method as HOM ballot: B-R WAA is the base number, with adjustments made to average DRA (from Baseball Gauge) and TZ (from B-R). Extra credit for pitchers for outstanding FIP-, and hitters for a huge regular season. Extra credit for postseason heroics, outstanding minor league play and catching. I didn't adjust for league strength here, but maybe I should. I can be convinced either way.

1) Eddie Stanky
2) Jackie Robinson
3) Ned Garver -- maybe he was lucky and unclutch, but there it is
4) Yogi Berra -- catcher bonus
5) Phil Rizzuto
6) Larry Doby
7) Ewell Blackwell -- FIP- credit
8) Sid Gordon
9) Robin Roberts -- postseason credit
10) Stan Musial -- DRA hates his LF defense

11) Allie Reynolds -- massive postseason credit
12) Vic Raschi -- massive postseason credit
13) Joe DiMaggio -- postseason credit
14) Andy Pafko
15) Earl Torgeson
16) Al Rosen
17) Art Houtteman
18) Mel Parnell
19) Hoot Evers
20) Andy Seminick -- catcher bonus
   55. DL from MN Posted: January 10, 2014 at 01:58 PM (#4635813)
It's hard for me to see anyone getting massive postseason credit. They only played 4 games. That's like 3% of the season if you round up.
   56. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: January 10, 2014 at 02:09 PM (#4635821)
Yes but the most important 3%. BTW thanks very much to Mr.C for the info on DRA
   57. Jay Z Posted: January 10, 2014 at 08:24 PM (#4636045)
They gave fewer at bats to their non-starters than just about any other team in Major League history, I imagine, and that's a huge part of how they surprised everyone to top the Dodgers and Giants that year. It's an easy game when everyone stays healthy all season long. (Even Andy Seminick's total is obscured by his position; only 4 other catchers had more games played than him.)


1962 Twins had 524 ABs to bench players in 163 games versus 511 for the Phillies in 157 games. So the Twins bench ABs per game was slightly lower.

1962 Twins lineup
C Earl Battey 148 G, 522 AB
1B Vic Power 144 G, 611 AB
2B Bernie Allen 159 G, 573 AB
SS Zoilo Versalles 160 G, 568 AB
3B Rich Rollins 159 G, 624 AB
LF Harmon Killebrew 155 G, 552 AB
CF Lenny Green 158 G, 619 AB
RF Bob Allison 149 G, 519 AB

1938 Pirates had 410 ABs from their six bench position players in 152 games. Pitcher Red Lucas also pinch hit a bit.
   58. Mr. C Posted: January 11, 2014 at 12:41 AM (#4636113)
I have reworked my system using XR runs instead of value added runs as the basis for runs above average.

My new all star teams for 1950 are as follows.

NL

C Andy Seminick
1B Earl Torgeson
2B Eddie Stanky
3B Hank Thompson
SS Alvin Dark
RF Del Ennis (Musial had a higher rating than Torgeson, Ennis or Gordon so could have been the all star in place of any of them)
CF Andy Pafko
LF Sid Gordon
Starters:Ewell Blackwell, Robin Roberts, Murray Dickson, Warren Spahn
Reliever: Jim Konstanty



AL
C Yogi Berra
1b Luke Easter
2B Jerry Priddy
3B Al Rosen
SS Phil Rizzuto
RF Vic Wertz
CF Larry Doby
LF Hoot Evers
Starters: Ned Garver, Art Houtteman, Mel Parnell, Early Wynn
Reliever: Tom Ferrick
   59. Mr. C Posted: January 11, 2014 at 01:09 AM (#4636125)
1950 Preliminary Ballot: Version 2

Batters: start with RA (using XR runs), adjust for park, position and defense (average of TZ, and DRA) Convert adjusted RAA to wins. Add 60% of normal Runs above replacement to get WARR (wins above reduced replacement)

Pitchers: start with RA adjust for quality of opposition, park, and team defense (average of TZ, DRA) Convert adjusted RAA to wins. Add 60% of normal runs above replacement to get WARR (wins above reduced replacement)

1. Eddie Stanky 7.19 WARR
2. Ned Garver 6.98 WARR (A much more realistic placement than was the case when using the incomplete value added run info)
3. Al Rosen 6.73 WARR
4. Larry Doby 6.22 WARR
5. Jackie Robinson 6.17 WARR
6. Andy Pafko 5.93 WARR
7. Phil Rizutto 5.77 WARR
8. Stan Musial 5.67 WARR
9. Ewell Blackwell 5.64 WARR
10.Sid Gordon 5.41 WARR

Rest of the top 20

Earl Torgeson
Robin Roberts
Hank Thompson
Yogi Berra
Del Ennis
Joe DiMaggio
Mel Parnell
Duke Snider
Art Houtemann
Hoot Evers
   60. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: January 11, 2014 at 02:50 PM (#4636385)
C Andy Seminick
1B Earl Torgeson
2B Eddie Stanky
3B Hank Thompson
SS Alvin Dark
RF Del Ennis (Musial had a higher rating than Torgeson, Ennis or Gordon so could have been the all star in place of any of them)
CF Andy Pafko
LF Sid Gordon
Starters:Ewell Blackwell, Robin Roberts, Murray Dickson, Warren Spahn
Reliever: Jim Konstanty

You can call it cheating but I put Jackie Robinson at 3B
   61. lieiam Posted: January 12, 2014 at 12:17 PM (#4636859)
Here's my prelim ballot.
My usual "uber-stat blender" method.
10% catcher bonus; no postseason.

I have NOT gone outside of MLB in my rankings.
Anyone cracking ballots or near-ballot outside of MLB that i need to look at???

1 Rizzuto, Phil 9247
2 Stanky, Eddie 8654
3 Musial, Stan 8628
4 Berra, Yogi 8626
5 Robinson, Jackie 8612
6 Garver, Ned 8137
7 Doby, Larry 8123
8 Rosen, Al 7975
9 Torgeson, Earl 7791
10 Blackwell, Ewell 7718

11 Gordon, Sid 7506
12 DiMaggio, Joe 7308
13 Roberts, Robin 7281
14 Pafko, Andy 7216
15 Snider, Duke 7012
16 Houtteman, Art 6954
17 Jansen, Larry 6904
18 Parnell, Mel 6630
19 Evers, Hoot 6629
20 Ennis, Del 6512
   62. Mr. C Posted: January 12, 2014 at 06:38 PM (#4637223)
lieiam: I looked up the Chris Cobb's MLEs for Monte Irvin for 1950, applied it be to my framework and depending what I do for defense in the minors, he will be very close to the 10th spot on my ballot.
   63. fra paolo Posted: January 13, 2014 at 10:37 AM (#4637626)
My top 5 AL position players, using my basic system which includes fielding Win Shares Above Bench for defence and runs based on my own wOBA calculation:

Phil Rizzuto 6.8 'WAA'
Al Rosen 6.5
Larry Doby 5.8
Yogi Berra 5.6
Jerry Priddy 5.3

I'll look at fielding numbers for DRA and BPro FRAA later on, which may lead to some adjustments. I reckon the top three have a good chance at making a ballot, if I have time to submit one.

I'd never heard of Priddy before, which is only worth mentioning because he was playing for the Tigers and I received my elementary baseball education while living in Detroit in the 1960s.

   64. DL from MN Posted: January 13, 2014 at 11:03 AM (#4637641)
Konstanty would make my top 20 but not my top 10. Add the 15 IP in the World Series and his season looks pretty impressive. I still think he's a poor choice for MVP.
   65. DL from MN Posted: January 13, 2014 at 11:34 AM (#4637663)
Why was Jackie Robinson out for a week in September?
   66. fra paolo Posted: January 13, 2014 at 12:44 PM (#4637745)
Re: Robinson

NY Times on 10 September says he injured his thumb and may be lost for the season, while diving for Jackie Mayo's ground ball during a game in Philadelphia.

EDIT: I'm going to miss off-campus access to things once I finish this bl---y degree.
   67. Chris Fluit Posted: January 13, 2014 at 01:27 PM (#4637788)
One of the interesting things concerning 1950 is that this is the first full season back for the Mexican League jumpers.

The Mexican League had some success in the late '30s and early '40s wooing African-American players out of the Negro Leagues. This accelerated during World War II and many of the best black players spent several seasons in Mexico- such as Ray Dandridge, Quincy Trouppe and Willie Wells. By the end of the second World War, the Mexican League had become profitable enough that several teams tried to lure white players out of Major League Baseball. The money was too good for some to pass up and about a dozen players signed contracts with Mexican teams. Major League Baseball promptly suspended the players for 5 years.

The players in question managed to play in Mexico for a season or two before the Mexican League agreed to enforce the suspension. Suddenly, the players were left without a place to play. One of the minor players, Danny Gardella, challenged the suspension in court. MLB decided to settle rather than risk the possibility of losing the reserve clause. The players were reinstated in the middle of the 1949 season, having served slightly more than half of their suspensions. Several players returned to their teams that summer. Others finished out the year where they were and returned in 1950.

Here's a sample:

Cuban star Bobby Estalella was one of the biggest names to jump to Mexico. He played for the Senators and Athletics in the mid-'40s before joining San Luis Potosi and then Veracruz in 1946. He spent '47 with San Luis Potosi and then signed with St. Jean in Quebec in 1948. Estalella had one more cup of coffee with the A's in 1949 (8 games) before hanging up his spikes in 1951 at the age of 40.

Danny Gardella was a war-time outfielder for the Giants. He played for Veracruz in '46 but missed the entire '47 season. He signed with Drummondville, and independent team in Quebec, in '48 and was still with the team in '49 when several more blacklisted players arrived. However, even though he won the lawsuit, Gardella only appeared in 1 more major league game, in 1950 with St. Louis.

Max Lanier, formerly of the Cardinals, pitched for Veracruz in 1946 and '47. He missed the '48 season before joining Drummondville in '49. Lanier rejoined the Cardinals as soon as the suspension was lifted and started 15 games for St. Louis in 1949.

Sal Maglie, formerly of the Giants, pitched for Puebla in 1946 and '47. He missed the '48 season but, like Lanier, pitched for Drummondville in 1949. However, Maglie honored his '49 contract and waited to return to the Giants until 1950.

Mickey Owen, former Dodgers catcher, played for Veracruz in 1946. He was out of baseball for the next 2 and 1/2 years. He came back with the Chicago Cubs in 1949 and spent three seasons as their back-up catcher.

Vern Stephens signed with Veracruz in 1946 but avoided suspension by not reporting to Veracruz and returning to the St. Louis Browns instead.

Roy Zimmerman was another war-time substitute for the Giants. He played first base for Nuevo Laredo in '46 but couldn't find a team in '47 or '48. He ended up in Drummondville with everybody else and played in the minors until 1951.

   68. lieiam Posted: January 14, 2014 at 12:59 AM (#4638356)
@Mr. C:
Thanks for the suggestion of Monte Irvin... I'll have to check him out for 1950 consideration.
   69. fra paolo Posted: January 14, 2014 at 12:30 PM (#4638617)
My Top 5 NL Position Players:

Musial 5.7
Kiner 5.6
Pafko 5
Stanky 5
Jackie R 4.9

Rizzuto and Rosen will top my list of position players. Musial vs Doby will require a deeper look.

I also looked at the DRA numbers for the top 5 ALers. Dramatic shifts would occur as DRA just adores Priddy's defence, and also that of Rosen. DRA effects would move both ahead of Rizzuto.

Here's how DRA ranks the top 16 2Bs in terms of playing time:

Priddy +36
Stanky +9
Goliat +9
Jackie R +7
Murtaugh +1
Michaels +1
Ryan +1
Friend -1
Doerr -4
Hitchcock -4
Coleman -6
Terwilliger -6
Fox -7
Gordon -7
Schoendienst -8
Hartsfield -8
   70. AROM Posted: January 14, 2014 at 12:39 PM (#4638626)
DRA is a method of evaluating defense developed by Michael Humphreys. It was first explained in a 3 part series on Hardball Times in 2005 and then more fully explained in his book called Wizardry. Baseball Guage's player cards show DRA as the defensive component. It attempts to evaluate all fielders throughout baseball history. As to whether it is equally valid as TZ, that is a difficult question. But from what I have read of the two systems I have respect for both authors and systems.

One area in which I agree with DRA over other systems is the treatment of infield errors. In DRA, an error is considered a play not made and effects the fielding numbers as such. It is not double counted (a further penalty is not given because it was an error).

Of course in 1950, there is much less information available to evaluate defensive prowess or lack thereof so neither system is as valid as defensive systems such as UZR and DRS which have batted ball information available.

IMHO, b oth TZ and DRA have weaknesses because of the lack of adequate data. Because of this I have been averaging the two systems. For 1950, I have been looking at averaging in Clay Davenport's FRAA and Pete Palmer's Defensive metric as well to try to balance out the inaccuracies in the various systems.


Very good summary. As the creator of TZ, I endorse using DRS as well. Neither stat should be looked at as authoritative, both are good estimates attempting to measure something that is really tough to measure - Defensive performance with incomplete records.
   71. Moeball Posted: January 14, 2014 at 01:47 PM (#4638693)
DRA is a method of evaluating defense developed by Michael Humphreys. It was first explained in a 3 part series on Hardball Times in 2005 and then more fully explained in his book called Wizardry. Baseball Guage's player cards show DRA as the defensive component. It attempts to evaluate all fielders throughout baseball history. As to whether it is equally valid as TZ, that is a difficult question. But from what I have read of the two systems I have respect for both authors and systems.

One area in which I agree with DRA over other systems is the treatment of infield errors. In DRA, an error is considered a play not made and effects the fielding numbers as such. It is not double counted (a further penalty is not given because it was an error).

Of course in 1950, there is much less information available to evaluate defensive prowess or lack thereof so neither system is as valid as defensive systems such as UZR and DRS which have batted ball information available.

IMHO, b oth TZ and DRA have weaknesses because of the lack of adequate data. Because of this I have been averaging the two systems. For 1950, I have been looking at averaging in Clay Davenport's FRAA and Pete Palmer's Defensive metric as well to try to balance out the inaccuracies in the various systems.


One of the things that interested me about Humphreys' approach in Wizardry was this - as I understand it, he looked at recent defensive measurements where PBP data was available and then tried to take basically available stats and regress them to the point where you could more or less approximate the results of the PBP numbers. This way he could apply similar regressions to past periods in history where PBP data isn't available and get some reasonably workable results. It's fascinating stuff to look at and I would recommend it to any serious analytical fan (although some of the formulas make my head hurt).
   72. bjhanke Posted: January 14, 2014 at 10:58 PM (#4639169)
fra paolo (#35) - Stolen Base percentages for the 1930s-1950s are not really in the same game as SB% from other times. The fewer Stolen Base attempts you see, the lower the success rate will be. Why? Because if your team goes for the hit and run, and the batter misses the ball and the catcher throws the runner out, that counts as a stolen base attempt and a caught stealing instead of what it really was, because it's impossible to visually judge the difference. If your team doesn't actually try any REAL stolen base attempts, the SB% numbers are heavily skewed by the H+Rs. From the 30s to the 50s, most, if not a huge majority, of "stolen base attempts" are really the front end of hit-and-runs where the batter swung and missed. You can't compare those SB% to ones from times when people actually tried to steal bases. What I generally do is just ignore SB% when evaluating hitters from those three decades. I will factor in the occasional Luis Aparicio or somebody who clearly WAS trying to steal bases. - Brock Hanke
   73. bjhanke Posted: January 15, 2014 at 02:38 AM (#4639243)
Oh, and I REALLY apologize for the spelling, grammar and syntax in comment #33. I don't drink, or I'd think I wrote it when drunk. I must have been half asleep at the time. If anything I wrote there just doesn't make any sense, please ask me to clarify. Just assume that it was I who made the mistake, not you. - Brock
   74. fra paolo Posted: January 15, 2014 at 12:51 PM (#4639500)
I have been calculating my wRC numbers for position players, which so far has had the following effects on my rankings:

-- I found a mistake in my Musial fomula, and he is now up to 6.1 wins in my basic calculation. wRC, however, doesn't like him nearly so much and DRA sees him as a horrible fielder. He is almost as poor as Kiner, which is a sharp contrast to his BPro FRAA and FWSAB scores.
-- By contrast, wRC really likes Earl Torgeson, making him my top position player in the NL. Some of that is park effects, which seem to have a bigger impact in my wRC calculation than my Offensive Wins one. Torgeson is also a much better fielder than Musial, an opinion shared by all three of the systems I look at.
-- wRC + DRA/FRAA favours the Tigers' keystone combo quite a bit. Lipon and Priddy both rank ahead of Doby, raised up high on account of defensive value. Again, this effect is visible in all three defensive systems I reviewed.

At the moment, going solely by the wRC+DRA/FRAA numbers, Priddy would top the ballot of position players in both leagues.

The top of a wRC+DRA/FRAA ballot would look something like:

Priddy
Rosen
Rizzuto
Torgeson

Willie Jones and Eddie Stanky have a shot at cracking this list, as I haven't done their fielding numbers yet, but they'd need to be as good as Rosen or Priddy to do it.

EDIT: Oh, and another thing — the National League seems to have a more clear-cut distinction between good hitters and good glove men than the American League, which goes a long way towards explaining why the top of my ballot is so dominated by the AL.
   75. fra paolo Posted: January 16, 2014 at 10:54 AM (#4640181)
I integrated my different position player lists and rank the top 10 as follows:

1) Rosen
2) Rizzuto - although I may move him to the top spot because he has postseason value.
3) Priddy
4) Dom Dimaggio - see below
5) Togeson
6) Berra
7) Doby
8) Stanky
9) Ennis - see below
10) Lipon

#11 would be either Noren or Evers.

Dimaggio and Ennis popped up on my lists as I looked a bit deeper into the fielding measures, DRA and BPro's FRAA. As an exercise, here are three more lists of top tens, based on different fielding measures.

....FWSAB......DRA........FRAA
 1) Rizzuto....Priddy.....Priddy
 2) Rosen......Rosen......Rosen
 3) Doby.......DiMaggio...DiMaggio
 4) Musial.....Rizzuto....Rizzuto
 5) Berra......Hamner.....Torgeson
 6) JackieR....Torgeson...Hamner
 7) Stanky.....Noren......Ennis
 8) Kiner......Lipon......Lipon
 9) Priddy.....Ennis......Noren
10) Pafko......Thomson....Berra
DRA and FRAA have a dramatic effect on the rankings. Unlike my 2013 MMP ballot, this represents the full value, as opposed to including a deduction to give some of the credit to the pitcher.

Here are five players on whom DRA and FRAA have significantly different opinions. The number in brackets is the player's FWSAB converted to runs.

Stan Musial - DRA hates his glove, 21-run difference (2.7)
Bobby Thomson - DRA loves his glove, 20-run difference (7)
Hoot Evers - DRA loves his glove, 19.5-run difference (7)
Hank Thompson - DRA loves his glove, 17-run difference (7.7)
Al Rosen - DRA likes his glove, 14.8-run difference (12)
   76. Bunny Vincennes Posted: January 16, 2014 at 12:35 PM (#4640295)
I only stop in on these threads occasionally and today is one of those days. Where does Walt Dropo's ROY (at 27...) season fit into this discussion? He was certainly a media darling at the time. Just out of blind curiosity.
   77. DL from MN Posted: January 21, 2014 at 03:54 PM (#4643498)
Dropo rates as a below average fielder at 1B. Fenway Park had a park factor of 110 which takes some air out of his stats. The team OBP was .380 which explains all the RBI. Good player but I'd take Dom DiMaggio and Ted Williams just from Boston ahead of Walt Dropo. Doerr, Stephens and Pesky were pretty good too.
   78. DL from MN Posted: January 27, 2014 at 03:40 PM (#4646860)
1950 music. I like Charlie Parker with Strings, Les Paul and Woodie Guthrie for albums. Miles Davis: Birth of the Cool is a great one. 1950 was very much singles and standards oriented which is not exactly what interests me. Of course the 12 inch LP was just introduced in 1948 (thanks wiki) and the record album concept really took off with the LP.

Noted irony that this ended up as comment 78
   79. DL from MN Posted: January 28, 2014 at 02:44 PM (#4647454)
Feels right to note Pete Seeger topped the charts in 1950 with "Goodnight Irene"
   80. Kiko Sakata Posted: January 30, 2014 at 02:12 AM (#4648464)
1950 was a trickier ballot for me to put together than most. As always, I calculate my own Player won-lost records based on Retrosheet play-by-play data. The problem is that Retrosheet is missing play-by-play data for about 15% of 1950 which makes my numbers fairly suspect.

So, for this ballot, I averaged my results (which I tried to adjust for missing games) and BB-Ref WAR. There were really two big disagreements between BB-Ref WAR and my system. My system loves Vic Raschi, who my system thinks might have been the best player in the majors in 1950. He did win 21 regular-season games and pitched a 2-hit shutout in Game 1 of the World Series, so it's not completely insane, but his WAR was very mundane - even giving him bonus points for the World Series game. So, he ends up off-ballot. On the other side, my system doesn't think much of Ned Garver, but I'm missing play-by-play data for about one-third of his season and eyeballing the game logs, it looks like he pitched a lot better in the missing games than in the ones I have. So I gave him a bonus to get him onto the bottom of my ballot.

Other than that, I think my choices are pretty reasonable, but I'm open to being persuaded otherwise.

1. Eddie Stanky - this surprised me, but he looks very good in both systems
2. Robin Roberts - strong postseason helps him; I suspect he's going to be very high on a lot more ballots this decade
3. Yogi Berra - catcher bonus gets him up this high
4. Larry Doby - best OF in MLB
5. Ewell Blackwell - looks very good in both systems
6. Phil Rizzuto - not a bad choice for MVP, best SS in MLB
7. Jackie Robinson - just a great, great player
8. Stan Musial - speaking of great, great players
9. Ned Garver - only AL pitcher on my ballot
10. Al Rosen - best 3B in MLB
   81. Mr. C Posted: February 01, 2014 at 03:12 PM (#4649848)

It wss because of Garver's lack of play by play stats, particularly, that drew my attention to the problem of using value added stats for 1950 (and probably for the entire decade).

Kiko's eyeballing is fairly accurate.

He pitched 37 games, for 23 of them there is play by play data.

His stats were split as follows:

Play by play data: 23 games, 146.9 innings, ERA of 3.61 and a RA of 4.78
Without play by play data: 14 games, 109.6 innings, ERA of 3.20 and RA of 3.45

When I used RA instead of RE24, Garver moved from off the ballot to second.

Another player (of those I checked) who lost significant value by using only the play by play data was Stan Musial.

On the other side of the coin, some teams had few if any games missing without play by play data, one team that I remember for which this was true was Cleveland.


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