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Friday, January 31, 2014

Most Meritorious Player: 1951 Discussion

NY Yankees beat the NY Giants in six games in the World Series. Vote for 10.

Player			SH WS		BBR WAR
Jackie Robinson		38.5		9.7	
Stan Musial		38.6		9.1
Roy Campanella		32.9		6.7
Ralph Kiner		35.0		8.1
Ted Williams		33.7		7.2
Monte Irvin		29.1		6.9
Richie Ashburn		28.1		6.5
Ed Joost		24.8		6.0
Eddie Stanky		24.6		5.4
Larry Doby		29.2		6.4
Yogi Berra		30.3		4.7
Alvin Dark		27.4		6.1
Gil Hodges		26.1		5.7
Bobby Avila		24.1		4.7
Nellie Fox		22.1		4.9
Wes Westrum		19.9		3.6
Minnie Minoso		24.8		5.5
Walker Cooper		17.0		3.6
Vic Wertz		22.1		4.4
Bobby Thomson		25.8		5.3
Sam Jethroe		22.9		4.7
Duke Snider		22.0		3.7
Phil Rizzuto		22.9		3.6
Pee Wee Reese		22.4		5.0
Willie Jones		22.0		4.1
Eddie Yost		27.2		4.1
Ferris Fain		19.1		4.6
Sid Gordon		22.3		4.8
Johnny Pesky		20.6		4.3
Gil McDougald		23.3		4.6
Al Rosen		24.9		3.6


Pitcher 		SH WS		BBR WAR
Robin Roberts		27.0		8.6
Warren Spahn		24.0		8.0
Ned Garver		21.0		6.8
Sal Maglie		27.7		6.0
Early Wynn		23.4		5.7
Larry Jansen		24.5		4.7
Mel Parnell		20.9		5.2
Saul Rogovin		17.9		5.2
Ed Lopat		18.9		3.8
Preacher Roe		21.7		4.3
Billy Pierce		18.5		4.7
Mike Garcia		22.3		4.2
Ken Raffensberger	19.4		4.4
Bubba Church		16.8		4.3
Allie Reynolds		18.4		4.0
Ewell Blackwell		18.2		4.5
Murry Dickson		17.5		4.1
Don Newcombe		19.6		4.2

Ellis Kinder		18.6		4.8
Al Brazle		13.5		2.1
Ted Wilks		11.3		2.6

 

DL from MN Posted: January 31, 2014 at 04:45 PM | 44 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. DL from MN Posted: January 31, 2014 at 04:59 PM (#4649567)
By position

C - Roy Campanella
1B - Stan Musial (sorry Gil)
2B - Jackie Robinson
SS - Alvin Dark
3B - Minnie Minoso (!!)
LF - Ted Williams
CF - Richie Ashburn
RF - Monte Irvin

SP - Robin Roberts, Warren Spahn, Ned Garver, Sal Maglie
RP - Ellis Kinder

Best pure RF was probably Wertz and best LF was Stan but I wanted Ted instead of Hodges.
   2. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: January 31, 2014 at 06:20 PM (#4649611)
Broadcaster -- Russ Hodges

Willie Mays -- 3.9 WAR with the Giants, and .477/.524/.799 with 119 TB in 164 PA with Minneapolis (134 TB if you count BB and HBP).

Eddie Lopat 18 IP, 0.50 ERA in World Series, 2-0 with 2 CG.

Hiroshi Oshita hit .383/.465/.704 for the Tokyu Flyers, and Shigeru Sugishita was 28-13, 2.36 in 290 IP for the Nagoya Dragons
   3. Mr. C Posted: January 31, 2014 at 07:17 PM (#4649634)
All Star teams

NL

C Roy Campanella
1B Gil Hodges
2B Jackie Robinson
3B Willie Jones
SS Alvin Dark
COf Stan Musial
CF Ritchie Ashburn
COF Ralph Kiner
SP Robin Roberts, Warren Spahn, Sal Maglie, Larry Jansen
RP Ted Wilks

Comment: The position that all of Musial, Kiner and Irvin played most often was left field, followed by first base. Since I anticipate that all three of them will be on the ballot, I would probably use one of them at 1B and the other two at the corner outfield positions.

AL

C Yogi Berra
1B Ferris Fain
2B Bobby Avila
3B Minnie Minoso (Minoso played 6 different positions. Although he played outfield the most, I will use my perogative to put him at 3B :-))
SS Eddie Joost
RF Vic Wertz
CF Larry Doby
LF Ted Williams
SP Ned Garver, Early Wynn, Mel Parnell, Saul Rogovin
RP Ellis Kinder

   4. Mr. C Posted: February 01, 2014 at 02:32 PM (#4649854)
1951 Preliminary ballot

Batters: start with RAA (using XR runs), adjust for park, position and defense (average of TZ, and DRA) Convert adjusted RAA to wins. Add 60% of normal Runs above replacement to get WARR (wins above reduced replacement)

Pitchers: start with RAA, adjust for quality of opposition, park, and team defense (average of TZ, DRA) Convert adjusted RAA to wins. Add 60% of normal runs above replacement to get WARR (wins above reduced replacement)

1. Stan Musial 9.39 WARR
2. Jackie Robinson 9.17 WARR
3. Ralph Kiner 7.84 WARR Sixth year in a row leading the league in HR, OBA of .452, loses about 1.5 wins to Musial because of defense
4. Robin Roberts 7.14 WARR
5. Ritchie Ashburn 7.05 WARR
6. Warren Spahn 7.03 WARR
7. Ted Williams 6.50 WARR
8. Monte Irvin 6.44 WARR
9. Roy Campanella 5.67 WARR
10. Ned Garver 5.64 WARR

Rest of the top 20
Eddie Joost
Larry Doby
Eddie Stanky
Gil Hodges
Alvin Dark
Minnie Minoso
Sal Maglie
Ferris Fain
Ellis Kinder
Early Wynn

I will be checking for MLEs for Willie Mays.

Bobby Thomson's "shot heard around he world" was not enough for him to crack the top 20.

Mickey Mantle's debut in the AL was not as noteworthy as Mays'in the NL, but before the decade is out, I feel he will compare favourably to Mays.
   5. bjhanke Posted: February 01, 2014 at 04:31 PM (#4649891)
Huh This year, the ordinals from Win Shares and BB-Ref WAR have a decent amount of correlation. This should be MUCH easier to do than 1950. - Brock Hanke
   6. DL from MN Posted: February 03, 2014 at 02:41 PM (#4650923)
1951 Prelim

1) Jackie Robinson
2) Stan Musial
3) Roy Campanella
4) Ralph Kiner
5) Robin Roberts
6) Warren Spahn
7) Ted Williams
8) Richie Ashburn
9) Ned Garver
10) Monte Irvin

11-15) Ed Joost, Eddie Stanky, Larry Doby, Yogi Berra, Sal Maglie
16-17) Alvin Dark, Early Wynn

Looks like a two person race this year.
   7. Chris Fluit Posted: February 03, 2014 at 05:33 PM (#4651025)
1951 Prelim Ballot

1. Stan Musial, LF/1B, St. Louis Cardinals: 183 OPS+ and MLB leading 157 runs created, +3 fielding runs plus a handful of games in CF
2. Ralph Kiner, LF, Pittsburgh Pirates: 185 OPS+ and 150 runs created, -6 fielding runs
3. Roy Campanella, C, Brooklyn Dodgers: 159 OPS+ and 115 runs created while playing behind the plate
4. Jackie Robinson, 2B, Brooklyn Dodgers: +16 fielding runs from the keystone not enough to close the gap on 30 points of OPS+ (185 for Musial, 154 for Robinson)
5. Ted Williams, LF, Boston Red Sox: AL leading 164 OPS+ and 137 runs created
6. Robin Roberts, P, Philadelphia Phillies: 127 ERA+ in league leading 315 innings
7. Sal Maglie, P, New York Giants: league leading 134 ERA+ in 298 innings
8. Eddie Joost, SS, Philadelphia Athletics: 134 OPS+ and 102 runs created- 2nd best in the AL
9. Warren Spahn, P, Boston Braves: 124 ERA+ in 310 innings
10. Yogi Berra, C, New York Yankees: 130 OPS+ and +4 fielding with the tools of ignorance

11. Larry Doby, CF, Cleveland Indians
12. Monte Irvin, LF, New York Giants
13. Larry Jansen, P, New York Giants
14. Bobby Thomson, 3B/CF, New York Giants
15. Minnie Minoso, 3B/LF, Cleveland/Chicago
16. Early Wynn, P, Cleveland Indians- top pitcher in the AL
17. Al Dark, SS, New York Giants
18. Preacher Roe, P, Brooklyn Dodgers
19. Don Newcombe, P, Brooklyn Dodgers
20. Richie Ashburn, CF, Philadelphia Phillies
   8. toratoratora Posted: February 03, 2014 at 05:35 PM (#4651027)
1951 Prelim.
Subject to adjustment.
The usual blend of WAR systems,weighted for placement.
No adjustments.No bonuses. No postseason credit.
There's very little variation between what are often fairly divergent systems this season.For instance,Jack Robinson earned 96.67% of all possible points. Next closest is Musial with 83.33%. After that things plummet.
Comments will come with final ballot

1-Robinson
2-Musial
3-Kiner
4-Twilliams
5-Campy
6-Irvin
7-Roberts
8-Spahn
9-Asburn
10-Doby

The best of the rest
11-Sal"The Barber" Maglie
12-Dark
13-Joost
14-Thompson
15-Berra
   9. DL from MN Posted: February 05, 2014 at 02:22 PM (#4652152)
Robinson v Musial in Dan R's WARP

Player BWAA2 BRWAA2 FWAA2 Rep2 WARP2 WAPA2 WARP2/Yr
Robinson 5.3 0.3 2.1 -2.1 9.8 8 10.2
StMusial 8.1 0 0.9 -1 9.9 7.6 9.6


Musial is the better hitter and Robinson the better baserunner and fielder. Robinson gains a win versus replacement and half a win versus positional average. Robinson is better on rate and Musial gets credit for 36 more plate appearances despite playing 2 fewer games. For me the rate and positional production is the tiebreaker.
   10. God Posted: February 05, 2014 at 07:06 PM (#4652354)
Musial is the better hitter and Robinson the better baserunner and fielder. Robinson gains a win versus replacement and half a win versus positional average. Robinson is better on rate and Musial gets credit for 36 more plate appearances despite playing 2 fewer games.


How in the world did that even happen? St. Louis certainly wasn't turning over its batting order more often than Brooklyn -- the Dodgers had 127 more base runners on the season. Robinson wasn't coming out for defense, and he didn't pad his games played total with pinch hitting or pinch running appearances. Both Musial and Robinson bated in the middle of the order, so it wasn't a batting order thing. Nor did the Cardinals play an extraordinary amount of extra-inning games.

No, it turns out the reason for Musial inexplicably having more plate appearances is that Robinson was regularly rested during the late innings of blowout games while Musial was not. Given this, I'm not certain whether Musial's "playing time advantage" is any kind of advantage at all. The garbage time plate appearances Robinson missed obviously had zero impact on his team winning or losing -- that's exactly why he missed them. In fact, I think it's pretty safe to say that Robinson actually had a few more meaningful plate appearances in 1951 than Musial did. At the very least, Jackie shouldn't be penalized for missing those meaningless PAs.
   11. DL from MN Posted: February 06, 2014 at 02:13 PM (#4652730)
Not sure that's fair. The time off may be what allowed Robinson to perform so well defensively.
   12. DL from MN Posted: February 06, 2014 at 05:44 PM (#4652881)
So far Ted Williams is looking like a unanimous AL MMP.
   13. Chris Fluit Posted: February 06, 2014 at 06:57 PM (#4652925)
It wasn't exactly a strong year for the AL.
   14. Davo's Favorite Tacos Are Moose Tacos Posted: February 06, 2014 at 07:25 PM (#4652944)
By pennant-adjust WPA, Bobby Thomson takes first and Ralph Branca takes last, and I'm not sure about the rest.
   15. bjhanke Posted: February 07, 2014 at 07:33 PM (#4653486)
A quick question for DL (or whoever else can answer it) and a comment about 1951:

I tried to go to "seamheads.com", but my computer, which won't go to BB-Ref at all (I need a new computer) says it can't establish a "secure connection" and won't go there. Is there any other way to get to seamheads? What I was looking for was Buck Ewing's debut. There's a group of guys over in the Ralph Kiner thread trying to figure out who all led their league in homers in their first year. I think Buck Ewing may have done that, in 1880, with ten, which was the single season record for MLB at the time (bearing in mind that it's 1880).

About 1951 - This is the year where the fact that the NL is much more willing to integrate than the AL really starts to show. From 1951 through 1962, no team won the NL pennant without a black Hall of Famer in their starting lineup. The Dodgers, with several, the Giants with Mays and/or Irvin, the Braves with Aaron and the Reds with Frank Robinson. It's almost a one-to-one correlation; the Cubs never won despite having Ernie Banks at SS. The team that breaks the string is, oddly enough, the Dodgers of 1963. Maury Wills never got into the Hall, although EVERYONE at the time just assumed that he would. If Maury had made the Hall, the string would have continued on to the Miracle Mets of 1969. Neither Cleon Jones nor Tommie Agee is in the Hall, nor does either deserve to be there. Wills is borderline.

This issue also is the main thing that dropped the Cardinals from being one of the elite teams in the league, along with the Dodgers, as they had been in the 1940s. The Cards in the early 1950s were owned by Fred Saigh, who was a combination of a lawyer and a gambling venture capitalist. He bought the Cards from Sam Breadon during one of his flush periods, but by the 1950s, he was looking at both bankruptcy and income tax evasion. With a front office heavily salted with Branch Rickey recruits - Branch, in the 1930s, recruited heavily from the South - there was no drive to integrate. They simply tried to keep riding Stan Musial to the pennant, which cost them, in terms of winning, the second half of Musial's career. To give you an idea of how much trouble Saigh was in, Bill Veeck bought the Browns with the goal in mind of running the Cardinals out of STL. He says that in Veeck as in Wreck. Veeck realized that STL was no longer big enough to support two teams, but was wildly overqualified to support one. He figured that Saigh would sell to one of the various out of town interests that were trying to get into MLB. When Saigh did sell, though, it was to Gussie Busch, owner of Anheuser-Busch. Veeck, realizing that he could not compete with Busch's deep, deep pockets, sold to interests in Baltimore. Gussie, to his credit, immediately set about fixing the integration problem. He started with Tom Alston and Brooks Lawrence in 1954. Alston failed, and Lawrence had a weak sophomore season, and ended up getting traded to the Reds. The plan finally took when Gussie hired Bing Devine to be the GM in 1957. Bing's first trade was to acquire Curt Flood, followed by Bill white, matching the Harlem Globetrotters money offer to Bob Gibson, and eventually, Lou Brock. Then the Cards were back into the race. Actually, they might have gotten back to the top earlier, if Solly Hemus (manager from 1959-61) had not been a racist. - Brock Hanke
   16. God Posted: February 07, 2014 at 07:38 PM (#4653491)
but my computer, which won't go to BB-Ref at all (I need a new computer)


BB-Ref also needs to stop using ads that bring people's machines to a standstill. I have problems going there and I have a reasonably new and powerful laptop. The site used to be noted for its clean pages and quick load times, and now it's on the opposite end of the spectrum. I realize there are a lot more site features now too, which I'm sure is part of it, but in my case at least it seems to be the extremely long ad load times that sometimes render the site almost unusable.
   17. DL from MN Posted: February 07, 2014 at 07:44 PM (#4653495)
I just go here

seamheads.com/baseballgauge/index.php
   18. God Posted: February 07, 2014 at 07:48 PM (#4653498)
Brock, it's ironic that the 1963 Dodgers are the team to break the string, considering that they had what was possibly the biggest African-American presence of any team in MLB history to that point. Five of the eight regulars were black; they just happened to be five HOVG types instead of Hall of Famers -- Wills, Jim Gilliam, Willie Davis, Tommy Davis, Johnny Roseboro.
   19. bjhanke Posted: February 08, 2014 at 11:45 PM (#4653763)
God - You are absolutely right; in fact, I would never have noticed the string except for the irony of it being broken by the Dodgers.

Also, I saw a comment you made in another thread about being hesitant to take the plunge and start voting here. I'm not sure why you think it's hard. Basically, you just look at the players from the year, and use whatever methods you are comfortable with, including subjective opinions, to rank them, and put up your ballot. As long as you're willing to tell everyone else what it is you're doing, no one's going to really complain, although you may get questions about some player or other. I've read enough of your comments to know that you're certainly up to the task. So, jump in! I, at least, will give you no grief at all, and am offering support. I strongly suspect that DL and the rest of us will do the same.

DL - I tried seamheads.com. And baseballgauge.com, just in case. My browser will not go there. At all. It just says it "cannot establish a secure connection to the server", just like it says for BB-Ref. I need a new browser. That means I need a new OS, because I have the latest browser that my current OS will take. That means I need to find out if 1) Apple has a later version of OS/X that is backwards compatible with the one I have, or 2) There is some software that isn't as expensive as the computer that will do the work of Microsoft Office. I really need a word processor as robust as Office's Word (I've been told to look at OpenOffice). I also need something like Adobe's graphics packages, because I'm still trying to sell or publish comic books. This will take some time to research. What I do not want to do is spend hours upon hours transferring Word files from one version to the next, using RTF and CDs. That was a pain when I upgraded from OS/9. And I spent a decade writing systems documentation at work on Windows machines, while writing at home on Mac machines, so I know better than to try to transfer across platforms. Thanks very much for trying seriously to help, but I know when I'm stuck. I have research to do and money to spend. Sigh. - Brock
   20. DL from MN Posted: February 09, 2014 at 10:48 AM (#4653819)
You could spend $250 on a Chromebook for surfing and word processing purposes while keeping the Mac for the rest.
   21. Mr. C Posted: February 09, 2014 at 04:49 PM (#4653938)
I was unable to find any MLEs for Willie Mays' 1951 minor league season so I have produced some of my own using Bill James' method described in 1985 Abstract. The MLEs that I calculated were:

PA 143
AB 135
H 55
2B 13
3B 2
HR 8
BB 7
K 11
BA .407
OBA .434
SLG .711

Those of you with more experience in calculating MLEs: Do those numbers seem reasonable? If not where do they seem off?

Thank you


   22. DL from MN Posted: February 09, 2014 at 07:45 PM (#4653973)
I think for Mays it is more reasonable to extrapolate his NL performance out another 140 PA than it is to use the MLE from his time in Minneapolis.
   23. bjhanke Posted: February 10, 2014 at 02:55 AM (#4654069)
Mr. C - Any MLE that produces a .407 batting average for anyone in 1951 has to be off. The 7 walks are VERY low, about half the major league average for 143 PA and well below Mays' actual MLB numbers. Actually I'm very surprized that Bill's 1985 method got that far off. It held up very well for 20 years, in general.

DL - Thanks for the research help. I'll take a look at Chromebooks. - Brock
   24. Kiko Sakata Posted: February 10, 2014 at 08:22 PM (#4654537)
My preliminary 1951 ballot. I calculate my own Player won-lost records using Retrosheet play-by-play data. The 1951 season is the first one for which Retrosheet has "complete" play-by-play data (every play is accounted for, but there's a lot missing, including, for example exactly how outs were made on a number of plays). Anyway, I calculate it two ways: pWins tie to team wins, eWins are context-neutral. I compare to both positional average and replacement level. I weigh postseason games the same as regular season; I give catchers (20%) and relief pitchers (50%) a bit of a boost. Mix it all up, and this is what the numbers say. I then adjust that judgmentally, based in part on what other systems/voters are saying.

Numbers here are pWins-pLosses, pWOPA, pWORL

1. Jackie Robinson, 24.8 - 15.1, 5.0, 7.1 - fairly easy #1, best 2B in MLB, best fielding 2B in MLB
2. Roy Campanella, 16.3 - 11.7, 2.5, 3.9 - catcher bonus pushes him up to #2
3. Warren Spahn, 22.3 - 16.1, 3.7, 5.7 - best pitcher in MLB
4. Stan Musial, 23.3 - 16.2, 2.8, 4.9 - best corner OF/1B in MLB
5. Alvin Dark, 23.2 - 18.0, 3.1, 5.2 - best SS in MLB
6. Robin Roberts, 21.6 - 17.1, 2.8, 4.8 - best P in MLB as measured by (context-neutral) eWins
7. Ed Lopat, 18.4 - 13.9, 2.9, 4.5 - outstanding postseason gets him top spot in AL
8. Monte Irvin, 24.4 - 16.9, 2.9, 5.1 - best season of his MLB career; damn shame we didn't get a chance to see what he could have done in his 20s
9. Ted Williams, 24.4 - 19.3, 1.5, 3.8 - best AL position player
10. Larry Doby, 19.0 - 15.1, 1.6, 3.4 - best CF in MLB

Honorable mention (in no particular order): Mike Garcia, Pee Wee Reese, Sal Maglie, Ralph Kiner, Eddie Joost, Gil McDougald, Yogi Berra. If you wanted to weight individual games more heavily depending on their importance, you could make an argument for getting Bobby Thomson onto the end of the ballot that I probably wouldn't object to.
   25. DanG Posted: February 10, 2014 at 09:20 PM (#4654552)
Relief pitchers in 1951:

Rk            Player WAR ERASV    WPA  WHIP GF GS    IP Age  Tm Lg  G  W  L  ERA   BA OPS+
1       Ellis Kinder 5.1  175 14  3.984 1.213 41  2 127.0  36 BOS AL 63 11  2 2.55 .230   70
2         Luis Aloma 3.2  223  3  3.255 1.096 11  1  69.1  28 CHW AL 25  6  0 1.82 .215   61
3      Dutch Leonard 2.7  156  3  0.570 1.188 28  1  81.2  42 CHC NL 41 10  6 2.64 .234   60
4          Ted Wilks 2.7  146 13  1.108 1.162 40  1 100.2  35 TOT NL 65  3  5 2.86 .238   46
5          Al Brazle 2.5  128  7  0.742 1.289 28  8 154.1  37 STL NL 56  6  5 3.09 .246   54
6    Harry Perkowski 2.2  145  1  0.255 1.392  8  7 102.0  28 CIN NL 35  3  6 2.82 .251   68
7        Frank Smith 1.9  128 11  0.618 1.145 35  0  76.0  23 CIN NL 50  5  5 3.20 .230   54
8        Monk Dubiel 1.8  180  1 
-0.553 1.244 12  0  54.2  33 CHC NL 22  2  2 2.30 .232   58
9    Sandy Consuegra 1.7  103  3  0.172 1.390 16 12 146.0  30 WSH AL 40  7  8 4.01 .252   86
10       Lou Brissie 1.6  108  9  2.630 1.424 26  6 125.2  27 TOT AL 56  4  5 3.58 .239   89
11    George Spencer 1.2  105  6 
-0.065 1.371 20  4 132.0  24 NYG NL 57 10  4 3.75 .254  101
12    Walt Masterson 1.2  134  2  0.381 1.433 10  1  59.1  31 BOS AL 30  3  0 3.34 .238   74
13     Bud Podbielan 1.2  112  0  0.405 1.293  9  5  79.2  27 BRO NL 27  2  2 3.50 .234   93
14     Monty Kennedy 1.1  175  0 
-1.787 1.456 12  5  68.0  29 NYG NL 29  1  2 2.25 .267   79
15       Andy Hansen 0.9  153  0  0.206 1.051  8  0  39.0  26 PHI NL 24  3  1 2.54 .227   59
16     Jim Konstanty 0.9   95  9 
-0.421 1.366 45  1 115.2  34 PHI NL 58  4 11 4.05 .281   83 
   26. DL from MN Posted: February 12, 2014 at 12:44 PM (#4655553)
Kinder ends up in 10th among my pitchers.
   27. DL from MN Posted: February 12, 2014 at 12:54 PM (#4655561)
World Series stats
Player G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SB CS E 
Berra 6 23 4 6 1 0 0 0 2 1 .261 .320 .304 .624 0 0 1  
Rizzuto 6 25 5 8 0 0 1 3 2 3 .320 .393 .440 .833 0 1 1 
McDougald 6 23 2 6 1 0 1 7 2 2 .261 .320 .435 .755 0 1 1 
Lopat 2 8 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 2 .125 .125 .125 .250 0 0 0 
Reynolds 2 6 0 2 0 0 0 1 0 1 .333 .333 .333 .667 0 0 0 

Dark 6 24 5 10 3 0 1 4 2 3 .417 .462 .667 1.128 0 0 0  
Irvin 6 24 3 11 0 1 0 2 2 1 .458 .500 .542 1.042 2 1 1 
Mays 6 22 1 4 0 0 0 1 2 2 .182 .250 .182 .432 0 0 0 
Stanky 6 22 3 3 0 0 0 1 3 2 .136 .269 .136 .406 0 1 1  
Thomson 6 21 1 5 1 0 0 2 5 0 .238 .385 .286 .670 0 0 2 
Westrum 6 17 1 4 1 0 0 0 5 3 .235 .409 .294 .703 0 0 1  

Jansen and Maglie were 0-fers. Yankees hit .246/.336/.377/.713 for the series and the Giants were .237/.327/.314/.642

Pitcher G GS ERA W L SV CG IP H ER BB SO WHIP  
Lopat 2 2 0.50 2 0 0 2 18.0 10 1 3 4 0.722 
Reynolds 2 2 4.20 1 1 0 1 15.0 16 7 11 8 1.800  

Maglie 1 1 7.20 0 1 0 0 5.0 8 4 2 3 2.000 
Jansen 3 2 6.30 0 2 0 0 10.0 8 7 4 6 1.200  
   28. DL from MN Posted: February 12, 2014 at 01:00 PM (#4655568)
Pretty much everyone affected by the World Series was off my ballot and stays there. Irvin will move up 2 slots. Berra makes it to #11.
   29. Moeball Posted: February 16, 2014 at 10:40 AM (#4657595)
Ok, here's my take on 1951 - I think for the most part it is easier to call than 1950 was:

1. Have to go with Jackie Robinson again. This is the third year in a row I would have him as #1. Hitting, running, fielding at a key defensive position, he was at the zenith of his game at this point. It must have been amazing to watch.

2. Roy Campanella. I think it is just too damned hard to find a catcher that can hit like this and I've seen nothing in the numbers to think his defensive reputation was overrated, either. This was a brutal time to be a catcher - there were only two catchers in baseball to even reach 500 PA this season and they were the two league MVPs in Campy and Yogi. Clearly I think the usual measurement systems such as WAR and WS underrate catchers.

3. Gotta be Stan Musial. Another tremendous year for The Man. I don't remember why the heck the Cardinals were jerking him around so much in those days, having him play four different positions. He played almost as much at first base as in left field and I don't see anything in the defensive numbers indicating he should have been moved down the defensive spectrum that much. In fact, the only reason I have him ahead of Kiner this year is because Stan's defense was better; they are almost identical offensively.

4. Ralph Kiner. His last great season with the bat. If Branch Rickey thought the biggest problem with the Pirates was Ralph Kiner, it only shows that Rickey was starting to lose his touch.

5. Ted Williams. Bounced back from injury-plagued 1950 season, but it's clear something wasn't quite right. These numbers are way down from Ted's usual previously established levels. Still the best player in the A.L. at this time, however. You can also see the shift in the balance of power here - the N.L. was clearly better than the A.L. by 1951, although the Yankees again won the Series.

6. Robin Roberts. He was Powerful, Effective and Durable (led all MLB in innings). I guess he was the P.E.D. of his day. Phillies dropped off from '50 to '51 but Robin actually upped his game. He was just starting one of the great pitching peak runs in history.

7. Warren Spahn. Still a better strikeout pitcher than Roberts at this point - hadn't gone into "crafty lefthander" mode yet. Set his personal high for innings in 1951. He was all about power and strength at this point in his career.

8. Monte Irvin - had tremendous numbers overall with career-high 147 OPS+ (well, at least it was his career high in MLB - no idea what his best numbers would have been over a full season in the Negro Leagues)- was even better down the stretch as Giants were overtaking Dodgers. Probably the biggest reason the Giants won the pennant! The Giants won the Pennant!

9. Richie Ashburn - excellent year with bat, on the bases and with the glove. Doby has better numbers but Richie played 20 more games and I give him the edge over Larry because of that, but it's very close.

10.Larry Doby. Had he stayed in the lineup longer this season I could see him jumping over both Ashburn and Irvin.

Just missed - Yogi, Ferris Fain, Eddie Joost.

With that being said, the other thing that made 1951 so special was that pretty much everything I've read from the time indicated everyone was really excited about the arrival of Mays and Mantle on the scene. Great expectations, indeed! That they both would go on to live up to the hype was amazing and made the fifties a great time to be a baseball fan.
   30. Mike Emeigh Posted: February 21, 2014 at 10:07 AM (#4660180)
Kinder ends up in 10th among my pitchers.


In 1951, Kinder had by far the highest leverage among relievers with 20 or more appearances, averaging 2.05 in 59 appearances. Two years later, he'd be back near the top of the list, with an average leverage of 2.13 in 69 appearances. (Allie Reynolds was higher, but in only 20 relief outings.) When Lou Boudreau took over the Red Sox in 1952, he tried to move Kinder back into the rotation. Kinder actually pitched pretty well in that role, but hurt his back in mid-May (reportedly while breaking up a fight between Jimmy Piersall and Billy Martin) and missed two months of the season. Boudreau put him back in the pen in 1953 and he'd stay there for the rest of his career.

Kinder's one of the forgotten men in the evolution of the bullpen. At the beginning of the 1950s, relief aces were still pretty rare, but the success of Joe Page in 1949 and of Jim Konstanty in 1950 got some people thinking. Boston's success with Kinder, coupled with the use of Al Brazle in St. Louis and Reynolds and later Johnny Sain by the Yankees, really started the ball rolling. By 1960 virtually everyone had a relief ace.

-- MWE
   31. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: February 21, 2014 at 10:26 AM (#4660195)
I think for Mays it is more reasonable to extrapolate his NL performance out another 140 PA than it is to use the MLE from his time in Minneapolis.
Why? What he did in Minneapolis is what he actually did.
Mr. C - Any MLE that produces a .407 batting average for anyone in 1951 has to be off. The 7 walks are VERY low, about half the major league average for 143 PA and well below Mays' actual MLB numbers. Actually I'm very surprized that Bill's 1985 method got that far off. It held up very well for 20 years, in general.
Why? He hit .477 in Minneapolis. Why wouldn't that translate to something like .407 in the majors? It's not that surprising that a player would get an unusually high BA and unusually low walk total in 143 PA. SSS and all that. We're not trying to project how he should have hit in the majors given his true talent, just how he would have hit in a SSS.
   32. DL from MN Posted: February 21, 2014 at 02:11 PM (#4660389)
Park effects are probably the reason for the screwy MLE. I'll take the larger sample size in the majors.

"Nicollet is best remembered for its short right-field fence, only 279 feet, 10 inches from home plate"

You can see a picture here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nicollet_Park

In 1951 Hoyt Wilhelm put up a 3.94 ERA for the Millers in his age 28 season (210 IP). He came up to the Giants in 1952 and pitched a 2.43 ERA. Nicollet was a bandbox.

Edit: another data point is Hank Thompson - 1200 OPS in Mpls, 730 OPS with the Giants.
   33. DL from MN Posted: February 21, 2014 at 02:53 PM (#4660429)
Bus Clarkson .343/.440/.466 for Milwaukee
Artie Wilson .255/.288/.284 for Oakland, awful in the majors but .390/.500/.559 for Minneapolis
Joe Black - 170 IP split between St. Paul and Montreal 2.25 ERA in 60IP St. Paul and 3.85 in 110IP Montreal
Quincy Trouppe - played age 38 season for Jalisco
Leon Day - 1.58 ERA in 40IP in Toronto
   34. cardscardscards Posted: February 23, 2014 at 02:21 AM (#4660933)
Based off my own WAR formula which uses park-adjusted RE24 for both position players and pitchers.

Batter WAR - Batting Wins, Fielding Wins, Position Wins, Replacement Wins
Pitcher WAR - Expected RA/9, Expected Winning Percentage

1. Jackie Robinson 9.3 - 4.9, 1.6, 0.6, 2.2
2. Ted Williams 8.6 - 7.7, 0.0, -0.7, 1.5
3. Sal Maglie 7.9 - 3.43, 60.2
4. Preacher Roe 7.3 - 3.27, 62.1
5. Warren Spahn 7.1 - 3.69, 57.2
6. Larry Jansen 7.0 - 3.51, 59.2
7. Robin Roberts 6.9 - 3.78, 56.2
8. Monte Irvin 6.9 - 5.7, 0.3, -0.7, 1.6
8. Roy Campanella 6.8 - 4.1, 0.2, 0.5, 2.0
10. Pee Wee Reese 6.7 - 3.1, 0.5, 0.9, 2.2
   35. lieiam Posted: February 23, 2014 at 02:03 PM (#4661084)
@cardscardscards:
Where's Musial?
   36. cardscardscards Posted: February 23, 2014 at 04:20 PM (#4661127)
@lieiam
15th best hitter in the ML. One of worst years RE24 wise combined with defense and position kept him low.

Musial 4.8 - 3.4, -0.1, -0.7, 2.2
   37. Mr. C Posted: February 23, 2014 at 05:53 PM (#4661148)
Those of you who follow these discussions know, the same thing happened to me in the 1950 election. During the early 50s there are many games for which there is no play by play data, and RE24 or value added runs (at least the version at baseball reference)is based only on those games for which there is data. So for those teams for which there a significant number of games missing, I discovered that my evaluations of players on those teams may be effected by this fact.

Using Musial's 1951 year as an example:

He played 152 games, 40 of which there was no play by play data.

His triple slash line for the 112 games upon which his RE24 score was based was .350/.445/.579. However, the triple slash line for the 41 games that there was no play by play data was .367/.469/.709. There is no guarantee that his RE24 value would go up because of these 41 games, but there is a good chance that it would, considering that he hit for more power in these games.

   38. cardscardscards Posted: February 23, 2014 at 06:24 PM (#4661158)
Yeah I knew something was off...
Back to the drawing board
   39. cardscardscards Posted: February 23, 2014 at 08:40 PM (#4661203)
Ok now based off of wRAA, wSB, and TZ for position players and RA9 for pitchers
Player - WAR

1. Jackie Robinson - 9.4
2. Warren Spahn - 9.3
3. Robin Roberts - 9.2
4. Ralph Kiner - 8.8
5. Sal Maglie - 8.5
6. Stan Musial - 8.3
7. Ted Williams - 8.2
8. Larry Jansen - 8.1
9. Preacher Roe - 7.8
10. Early Wynn - 7.6
   40. DL from MN Posted: February 24, 2014 at 09:10 AM (#4661362)
Kiko Sakata - what is the issue with Kiner? Just defense?
   41. Kiko Sakata Posted: February 25, 2014 at 09:38 PM (#4662554)
Yeah, defense. He'd have been more valuable in 1951 as a DH - except, of course, for the fact that the DH position didn't exist. Even with his terrible defense, he's not too far off my ballot - he would have almost certainly made a 12-man ballot if that's what we were using.
   42. Tubbs & Minnie Miñoso don't fear Sid Monge Posted: March 02, 2014 at 12:01 PM (#4664842)
No postseason bonus but in some cases a small bonus for playing for a Pennant winner/contender:

1. J.Robinson--really close race between Jackie, Campy, & Stan the Man
2. Campanella--some catcher bonus
3. Musial--a close call for top 3 then a gap to #4, as good as we know Stan was, he's probably underrated
4. T.Williams--the NL really appears to have had the better individual players at this time
5. Irvin
6. Maglie--the NL pitchers were all relatively close
7. R.Roberts
8. Spahn
9. Kiner
10.Thomson--hitting one of the most famous HRs ever sneaks him in

Also mentioning
Wynn--best AL pitcher
Preacher Roe--very tough sounding name and 22-3 record always caught my eye
Eddie Joost--one of the great baseball names, would fit in with the Moneyball A's back when Beane loved OBP
Berra--Yanks were a great ensemble cast
Minoso--hope to see this guy make HOF while he's still with us!
Garver--what a year with the bat, probably #2 pitcher in AL
Reynolds--Rob Neyer called him something like a horrible HOF candidate, I disagree--I think WAR underrates him. Hopefully this will lead to some discussion on his low career WAR
   43. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 04, 2014 at 08:13 AM (#4665906)
Don't worry, Dan. I haven't forgotten about the election. I'll post something before the deadline.
   44. DL from MN Posted: March 05, 2014 at 07:29 PM (#4666989)
Nat King Cole or Les Paul and Mary Ford?

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