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Tuesday, March 04, 2014

Most Meritorious Player: 1952 Discussion

NY Yankees beat the Brooklyn Dodgers in another NY World Series. Vote for 10.

Player			SH WS		BBR WAR
Jackie Robinson		33.9		8.5
Stan Musial		36.8		8.0
Larry Doby		33.6		7.0
Yogi Berra		28.8		5.5
Hank Sauer		28.2		5.7
Mickey Mantle		32.6		6.4
Solly Hemus		26.6		6.7
Al Rosen		31.8		6.0
Gil Hodges		25.7		5.5
Red Schoendienst	24.9		5.3
Bobby Avila		24.4		4.7
Alvin Dark		27.7		5.8
Gene Woodling		21.0		4.0
Minnie Minoso		21.0		4.1
Eddie Robinson		25.0		4.0		
Eddie Joost		26.7		4.0
Phil Rizzuto		21.1		5.3
Enos Slaughter		22.7		4.8
Sid Gordon		25.0		4.9
Ferris Fain		27.9		4.8
Hank Bauer		21.6		4.2
Pee Wee Reese		23.3		5.0
Duke Snider		24.7		4.6
Ralph Kiner		18.9		4.5
Joe Collins		18.3		3.5
Vic Wertz		16.9		3.5
Ted Kluzewski		22.4		4.0
Luke Easter		19.9		3.5
Roy Campanella		21.6		3.6

Pitcher 		SH WS		BBR WAR
Bobby Shantz		30.9		9.6
Robin Roberts		31.6		8.5
Warren Spahn		20.6		7.1
Billy Pierce		22.4		7.2
Ken Raffensberger	22.8		5.7
Bob Porterfield		18.8		5.3
Bob Lemon		24.2		5.7
Mike Garcia		23.4		5.2
Allie Reynolds		23.6		4.7
Warren Hacker		19.0		5.5
Murry Dickson		16.6		5.3
Joe Dobson		17.6		4.3
Bob Rush		22.4		5.7
Early Wynn		19.9		4.3
Karl Drews		18.1		4.3
Spec Shea		13.4		3.6
Curt Simmons		16.2		4.2
Carl Erskine		17.2		4.0
Sal Maglie		17.9		3.7

Joe Black		19.5		4.2
Hoyt Wilhelm		17.3		2.7
Al Brazle		14.8		2.0
Satchel Paige		13.5		3.2	
DL from MN Posted: March 04, 2014 at 12:34 PM | 46 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. DL from MN Posted: March 04, 2014 at 12:44 PM (#4666082)
1952 prelim

1) Jackie Robinson
2) Bobby Shantz - tight at the top
3) Stan Musial
4) Robin Roberts
5) Larry Doby
6) Yogi Berra
7) Hank Sauer
8) Mickey Mantle
9) Warren Spahn
10) Billy Pierce - 80% HOM in the top 10

11-15) Solly Hemus, Ken Raffensberger, Al Rosen, Gil Hodges, Red Schoendienst
   2. Chris Fluit Posted: March 04, 2014 at 07:12 PM (#4666448)
1952 Prelim- NL only

1. Jackie Robinson, 2B, Brooklyn Dodgers- I've held out for Musial the last two seasons but Jackie finally takes first place on my ballot
2. Stan Musial, CF, St. Louis Cardinals- leads the NL in OPS+ and RC
3. Robin Roberts, P, Philadelphia Phillies- 330 innings pitched laps the field; 141 ERA+ isn't too shabby either
4. Bob Rush, P, Chicago Cubs- big gap between Roberts and Rush
5. Solly Hemus, SS, St. Louis Cardinals- I love surprises like this; a shortstop with +7 fielding runs who is also in the top ten for OPS+
6. Hank Sauer, LF, Chicago Cubs- one of the few sluggers with a positive defensive contribution
7. Warren Spahn, P, Boston Braves- 290 innings but only a 122 ERA+
8. Al Dark, SS, New York Giants
9. Gil Hodges, 1B, Brooklyn Dodgers
10. Kurt Raffensberger, P, Cincinnati Reds
   3. Chris Fluit Posted: March 04, 2014 at 07:40 PM (#4666467)
1952 Prelim- AL only

1. Al Rosen, 3B, Cleveland Indians- 160 OPS+ from the hot corner
2. Bobby Shantz, P, Philadelphia Athletics- 159 ERA+ in 279 innings
3. Larry Doby, CF, Cleveland Indians- league leading 163 OPS+ with +5 fielding
4. Mickey Mantle, CF, New York Yankees- the Mick's ballot debut
5. Bob Lemon, P, Cleveland Indians- league leading 309 innings with a 134 ERA+
6. Yogi Berra, C, New York Yankees
7. Mike Garcia, P, St. Louis Browns
8. Allie Reynolds, P, New York Yankees
9. Billy Pierce, P, Chicago White Sox
10. Bobby Avila, 2B, Cleveland Indians

   4. Chris Fluit Posted: March 04, 2014 at 08:57 PM (#4666504)
1952 Prelim- Full

1. Jackie Robinson, 2B, Brooklyn Dodgers
2. Stan Musial, CF, St. Louis Cardinals
3. Robin Roberts, P, Philadelphia Phillies
4. Al Rosen, 3B, Cleveland Indians
5. Bobby Shantz, P, Philadelphia Athletics
6. Larry Doby, CF, Cleveland Indians
7. Mickey Mantle, CF, New York Yankees
8. Bob Lemon, P, Cleveland Indians
9. Yogi Berra, C, New York Yankees
10. Mike Garcia, P, St. Louis Browns

11. Allie Reynolds, P, New York Yankees
12. Bob Rush, P, Chicago Cubs
13. Solly Hemus, SS, St. Louis Cardinals
14. Hank Sauer, LF, Chicago Cubs
15. Warren Spahn, P, Boston Braves
   5. Tubbs & Minnie Miñoso don't fear Sid Monge Posted: March 04, 2014 at 11:24 PM (#4666553)
This was Allie Reynolds' best season. I've always thought his career WAR seemed low for someone who seemed to have HOVG if not fringe HOF level career but WAR suggests he was neither.
   6. DL from MN Posted: March 05, 2014 at 12:16 PM (#4666698)
Kurt Raffensberger


I think it's Ken
   7. DL from MN Posted: March 05, 2014 at 12:35 PM (#4666709)
Dan R's league adjustments for 1952 are really close (0.943 and 0.942).

Let's quick compare Larry Doby, Mickey Mantle and Al Rosen so we aren't dealing with league or pitcher/position player issues.

Player SFrac BWAA1 BRWAA1 FWAA1 Rep1 WARP1
Doby 0.93 6 0.2 0.1 -1.4 7.7
Mantle 0.95 6.2 0.3 -0.4 -1.5 7.5
Rosen 0.99 5.6 0 -0.8 -1.1 5.9


Mantle has the best bat and baserunning but gets docked on fielding. Al Rosen shows up as a below average fielder and I'm not sure that agrees with his reputation. BBREF gives him a -3 RFIELD. Replacement level for CF is lower than 3B in 1952 by almost half a win. This is an area where BBREF WAR is going to like 3B better due to it's methodology.

"1952" and "Mickey Mantle" are strongly tied to "Topps" in my mind.
   8. Chris Fluit Posted: March 05, 2014 at 06:35 PM (#4666940)
This was Allie Reynolds' best season. I've always thought his career WAR seemed low for someone who seemed to have HOVG if not fringe HOF level career but WAR suggests he was neither.


1952 was clearly Reynolds' best season. He led the American League in ERA (2.05), shutouts (6), strikeouts (160) and ERA+ (161). That was also his career best mark in each of those categories except shutouts (he had 7 in 1951). Reynolds also came within 3 IP of his career high (244.1 in '52, 247.1 in '45). In addition, Reynolds had good underlying statistics, allowing fewer than 100 walks for the first time since 1944 and his 10 home runs allowed was his lowest mark since 1946. His walks per 9 IP and his strikeouts per walks were also career bests (3.6 and 1.65).

It's the kind of year that usually garners Cy Young attention (though the award hadn't been introduced yet). Indeed, Reynolds finished second in the MVP race to fellow pitcher (and future teammate) Bobby Shantz. Shantz also won The Sporting News' AL Pitcher of the Year Award (the closest precursor to the Cy Young).

Shantz's victory over Reynolds probably had more to do with his league-leading 24 wins than any underlying numbers but modern statistics show that the voters got this one right. Shantz led the AL in WHIP (1.048), walks per 9 (2.0) and strikeouts to walks (2.41). His ERA+ was a close second to Reynolds at 159 and he pitched 35.1 more innings (279.2). WAR sides with Shantz as well, 9.1 to 4.8.

I think that WAR overstates the difference between the two pitchers for 1952 which is why I have Shantz at 5th and Reynolds 11th. At the same time, I can see why WAR rates Reynolds comparatively low. Reynolds was pitching in front of a historically great defense. His all-glove infield saved him a ton of runs. Billy Martin was worth +15 runs at 2B, Phil Rizzuto +19 at SS and Gil McDougald +13 at mostly 3B. Every Yankee starter was a decent defensive player- Berra was +2, Collins +1, Bauer +4 and Woodling +3. Only their second year center fielder failed to rate a positive in fielding runs and he still broke even at zero.

Then there are the walks allowed. Reynolds had one of his best years in that regard but he still gave up 97 walks in 244 innings for a rate of 3.6 per 9. He gave up another 7 free passes via hit batters. Reynolds gave up the 6th most walks in the AL and tied for 3rd in hit batters.

Reynolds had a great year in 1952, but not quite as great as it seems if one only looks at his ERA and strikeouts.



Reynolds' name gets bandied about as a Hall of Fame candidate on a regular basis (he was on the most recent "Golden Age" ballot, for example). However, his support mostly comes from the "count the rings" crowd and has likely resulted in a lot of people thinking Reynolds was better than he really was.

Reynolds does have 6 World Series rings. The Yankees were a perfect 6-0 in the World Series during Reynolds' tenure ('47 and '49 to '53). And Reynolds was a big part of that. He went 7-2 with a 2.79 ERA in 15 games (9 as a starter, 6 in relief). His postseason ERA is half a run better than his regular season ERA (3.30) and his postseason WHIP is significantly better as well (1.20 to 1.38). It may be a small sample, but it's a small sample on the biggest stage.

However, outside of the postseason, Reynolds' resume is fairly light. He simply doesn't have the numbers. I remember one of his advocates arguing that Reynolds sacrificed personal stats for the good of the team and that he would have won 200 games if Stengel didn't use him as a swingman from '51 to '54 (he had 88 starts and 64 games in relief during that span). But when did 200 wins become a ticket to Cooperstown?

Reynolds has a career ERA+ of 109 in 2492 innings. That's a low rate and a low bulk. Hall of Fame pitchers with a similar ERA+ had significantly more innings (Red Ruffing, 109 ERA+ in 4344 innings; Burleigh Grimes, 108 ERA+ in 4180 innings). Even the unworthy Jesse Haines (109 ERA+) had 3208 innings. Hall of Fame pitchers with similar innings totals had significantly better rate stats (Lefty Gomez 2503 innings with a 125 ERA+; Addie Joss and Sandy Koufax with 2327 and 2324 innings earned ERA+ rates of 142 and 131 respectively). And Monte Ward (2469 innings with a 119 ERA+) had a few years at shortstop on top of his pitching. Excepting Koufax, Reynolds isn't even being compared to the inner circle Hall of Famers here. Ruffing and Ward are the only other pitchers in the Hall of Merit from this paragraph.

Reynolds doesn't have much of a peak case either. He has only one season with an ERA+ over 125- his 161 he had in 1952. That's not exactly a historic mark- it's tied for 263rd on the single season chart. His next best year was a 126 in 1951, followed by a 115 in 1950 and a 110 in 1947. That's one Cy Young caliber season ('52) and one All-Star caliber season ('51). To put it another way, that's only two seasons in the top ten of WAR for pitchers in his league ('51 and '52). That doesn't exactly scream Hall of Famer.

WAR may indeed underrate Reynolds. But Reynolds is so far from the Hall of Fame standard that it doesn't matter. Even if you double Reynolds' career WAR (26.0 to 52.0), he's hanging out in the neighborhood of non-Hall of Famers Tommy Bridges (52.5), Larry Jackson (52.5) and Wilbur Wood (52.2). I don't always trust WAR but it's not off by that wide a margin. As it is, Reynolds isn't even Hall of Very Good.


(I do realize that you didn't argue that Reynolds should be in the Hall of Fame. I simply used your comments as an good opportunity to expound.)
   9. toratoratora Posted: March 05, 2014 at 07:28 PM (#4666963)
Prelim-The usual blend of WAR systems. No weighting. No adjustments.
Player and percentage listed, comments will come on final ballot

1-Robinson: 88.33%
2-Musial: 85.00%
3-Doby: 70.00%
4-Roberts: 61.67%
5-Mantle: 60.00%
6-Shantz: 51.67%
7-Rosen: 33.33%
8-Hemus: 21.67%
9-Sauer: 16.67%
10-Berra: 15.00%

The best of the rest:
Pierce, Spahn, Lemon, Fain, Snider

   10. Tubbs & Minnie Miñoso don't fear Sid Monge Posted: March 05, 2014 at 08:08 PM (#4666977)
(I do realize that you didn't argue that Reynolds should be in the Hall of Fame. I simply used your comments as an good opportunity to expound.)

Thanks for the comments and analysis, Chris. Whether it was pitching for Yankees Dynasty or the shiny W/L pct, my admiration for Reynolds' career is a holdover from my pre-saber days but WAR (while I believe underrates him) sees him pretty far away from HOF-worthy on regular season stats. Lefty Gomez seems like a pretty good comparison and like you said the difference in ERA+ is significant. I wouldn't be up in arms had Reynolds got elected by one of the Vet Committee incarnations--he came one vote shy when Joe Gordon got elected--but I would say the biggest Cooperstown snub from this era is Minnie Minoso.
   11. Tubbs & Minnie Miñoso don't fear Sid Monge Posted: March 05, 2014 at 09:51 PM (#4667024)
No postseason bonus but in some cases a small bonus for playing for a Pennant winner/contender:
1. Shantz
2. Roberts
3. J.Robinson
4. Musial
5. Doby
6. Berra
7. Rosen
8. Reynolds
9. Lemon
10.Mantle

Some comments-Garcia was probably my #11. Good years by Luke Easter and Hank Sauer. Easter may have had a HOF career if not for integration. Sauer would've had a HOF caliber career if his 20s had been half as good as his 30s.
   12. Mike Emeigh Posted: March 05, 2014 at 10:19 PM (#4667033)
Casey Stengel started leveraging Reynolds in 1951. In 1950 Reynolds had a pretty even distribution of starts against the other seven teams. By 1951 12 of his 26 starts came against the Indians and Browns, and in 1952 it was 13 of 29. Meanwhile in those two seasons Reynolds started a total of three times against the White Sox, and five times against the A's.

-- MWE
   13. DanG Posted: March 06, 2014 at 02:00 AM (#4667073)
Relief pitchers in 1952:

Rk            Player WAR ERASV    WPA  WHIP GF GS    IP Age  Tm Lg  G  W  L  ERA   BA
1          Joe Black 4.4  171 15  3.992 1.005 41  2 142.1  28 BRO NL 56 15  4 2.15 .201
2      Satchel Paige 3.4  127 10  2.419 1.254 35  6 138.0  45 SLB AL 46 12 10 3.07 .226
3       Hoyt Wilhelm 2.7  152 11  3.787 1.155 32  0 159.1  29 NYG NL 71 15  3 2.43 .220
4       Lew Burdette 2.7  100  7 
-0.168 1.350 22  9 137.0  25 BSN NL 45  6 11 3.61 .265
5       Fritz Dorish 2.6  148 11  4.690 1.187 27  1  91.0  30 CHW AL 39  8  4 2.47 .208
6      Dutch Leonard 2.5  179 11  0.803 1.200 36  0  66.2  43 CHC NL 45  2  2 2.16 .233
7          Al Brazle 2.1  137 16  2.788 1.070 32  6 109.1  38 STL NL 46 12  5 2.72 .197
8        Eddie Yuhas 2.0  136  6  1.421 1.258 31  2  99.1  27 STL NL 54 12  2 2.72 .242
9        Joe Nuxhall 1.9  117  1  0.033 1.354 21  5  92.1  23 CIN NL 37  1  4 3.22 .245
10        Woody Main 1.8   89  2 
-0.691 1.311 19 11 153.1  30 PIT NL 48  2 12 4.46 .253
11   Willie Ramsdell 1.7  160  0  0.625 0.970  8  4  67.0  36 CHC NL 19  2  3 2.42 .173
12         Al Benton 1.7  166  6  0.208 1.434 17  0  37.2  41 BOS AL 24  4  3 2.39 .268
13       Frank Smith 1.6  100  7  2.207 1.226 37  2 122.1  24 CIN NL 53 12 11 3.75 .242
14     Bud Podbielan 1.6  120  1  0.374 1.252  8  7  88.2  28 TOT NL 27  4  5 3.15 .250
15   Sandy Consuegra 1.4  117  5  1.515 1.452 14  2  73.2  31 WSH AL 30  6  0 3.05 .278
16         Ted Wilks 1.4  107  5 
-0.066 1.321 36  0  84.0  36 TOT ML 51  5  5 3.64 .236 
   14. Mike Emeigh Posted: March 06, 2014 at 10:39 AM (#4667129)
Wilhelm's 1952 season is interesting, to say the least.

Wilhelm appeared in 71 games, all in relief, as a 28-YO rookie. At that time, it was the second-highest number of appearances made by a pitcher without starting a game; Konstanty had made 74 in 1950. But unlike Konstanty, who was the very model of an ace reliever in 1950, Wilhelm's usage pattern was all over the place; there's not really any rhyme or reason to it. Durocher had spells where Wilhelm would be his go-to guy; in September Hoyt pitched 11 2/3 innings on four straight days, average leverage of 3.25. Then he'd have spells where Wilhelm barely pitched at all, except in rather low-leverage situations. Wilhelm was the de-facto ace reliever, yet over 1/3 of his appearances were games that were not close when he entered, he finished under half of his appearances, and he had a lot of low-leverage outings sprinkled throughout the season. WAR probably overrates him; Leonard and Brazle were better in context.

Brazle had an amazing, and underrated season. His average leverage in his 40 relief appearances with the Cardinals was 2.78, and 32 of those appearances came with the Cardinals in the lead or tied. Of his six starts, two were bad, but in the other four he threw a shutout, a 1-run game, a 2-run game, and seven shutout innings.

-- MWE
   15. EricC Posted: March 06, 2014 at 12:48 PM (#4667168)
1952 prelim.

1. Bobby Shantz
2. Robin Roberts
3. Yogi Berra
4. Jackie Robinson
5. Stan Musial
6. Larry Doby
7. Bob Lemon
8. Al Rosen
9. Mike Garcia
10. Mickey Mantle

11. Reynolds 12. Pierce 13. Rush 14. Sauer 15. Dark
   16. Moeball Posted: March 07, 2014 at 07:21 PM (#4668113)
1. J. Robinson – for the 4th year in a row I have Jackie as the top player overall. He was the toughest out in baseball (thanks to a career high in walks with 106), made things happen with his legs when he got on base, hit with surprising power for a 2B (career high 19 HRs in ’52), and gobbled up everything hit his way in the field. As good as he was, with as much notoriety that came his way, was Jackie actually underrated? I think maybe so. The man could play some baseball. Damn, I wish I could have been there to see it!

2. S. Musial – the man! Another tremendous year with the bat although his power numbers were down. Still led league in runs, hits, doubles, BA, SLG, OPS+, TB. Not too shabby for an off-year. Played a decent CF, too.

3. B. Shantz – what an amazing year – pitched brilliantly most of the season before fading in September (had a late stretch where he gave up 29 runs in 30 innings). Was it fatigue? Still ended up with career highs in just about every category. Led league in WHIP; had a WHIP of less than 1 on the road.

4. R. Roberts – another in a string of superb seasons; incredibly effective and durable. Looked at first glance like this was his best season with 28-7 record and 2.59 ERA; note, however, that he received better than usual run support this year; only had 7 decisions impacted by poor run support (less than 3 runs support in a game), whereas in most seasons he would typically have twice that many. Went 1-6 in these poor support games; on the other hand, went 27-1 whenever he had at least 3 runs to work with!

5. L. Doby – led A.L. in runs, HRs, OPS+, SLG – also played excellent CF. His best of several solid years with Cleveland.

Now it gets tougher for me to choose – I think #s 6-10 are all very tightly packed and could go in just about any order depending on my mood of the day, but for now I’m going with:

6. Y. Berra – I think all the rating systems grossly underrate catchers so I’m giving Yogi a bonus here. Reached 30 HRs for first time in his career, started building on reputation as a great “clutch” hitter – hit better with runners on and RISP than he did with bases empty, was really outstanding in C&L situations.

7. A. Reynolds – terrific season, led league in ERA, ERA+, SO and ShO. Yet another Yankee pitcher who seemed to do even better in postseason than regular season, and was tough to hit in the regular season (joining Ford, Gomez, Pennock, etc. in this club) – and, unlike the others, Allie was a righty!

8. S. Hemus – got on base a lot on offense, on defense excellent glove work prevented opposing batters getting on base a lot. That’s the way to do it! Led N.L. in runs and HBP.

9. M. Mantle – the Mick was just getting started here – this was one of his “poorer” seasons – wish my Padres could have players this good even in their off-years. Of course, he was only 20 at the time!

10. R. Schoendienst – this is my “off the wall” pick – I think the numbers still underrate what he contributed defensively so I rate him higher than WAR would.

Just missed – Ferris Fain, Al Rosen, Bob Lemon, Mike Garcia, Hank Sauer, Bob Rush, Ken Raffensberger, Warren Spahn
   17. Chris Fluit Posted: March 08, 2014 at 11:49 AM (#4668229)
As good as he was, with as much notoriety that came his way, was Jackie actually underrated? I think maybe so.


I think so. All of the credit that he rightfully gets for being a pioneer sometimes prevents people from realizing that he was also a really, really great baseball player. How many second basemen are going to win multiple MMPs by the time we're done with this project? 3 to 5?

   18. bjhanke Posted: March 09, 2014 at 07:25 PM (#4668780)
This year and next are going to be tricky for me, so I doubt I'll participate in discussion beyond this. I got started being a baseball fan in this year, 1952. However, I didn't actually go to see games until 1954. Therefore, I have all kinds of memories of the players here, and those memories are within the range of years that include years I actually got to see them, but I was a little kid, and did not get to se them at all until 1954. Trusting my memory is dicey in these years. So, I'm going to produce a numbers-driven ballot, even more than usual, just because I might remember something from 1954-56 that is not true for the same player in 1952-53. Heck, I might remember something from a Cadaco All-Star Baseball disc that needs a lot of context that I didn't have. I was SO glad that 1951 had a strong consensus between Win Shares and WAR. I'm hoping for that to hold up. - Brock Hanke
   19. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 12, 2014 at 07:33 PM (#4670637)
10. Kurt Raffensberger, P, Cincinnati Reds


Chris, did you read comic books as a kid?
   20. Chris Fluit Posted: March 12, 2014 at 07:54 PM (#4670645)
Chris, did you read comic books as a kid?


Yup. Still do.
   21. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 12, 2014 at 08:15 PM (#4670652)
1952 MMP Prelim (no postseason bonuses and there is a AL adjustment):

1) Larry Doby: Best ML player and center fielder.
2) Stan Musial: Best NL player and center fielder.
3) Jackie Robinson: Best ML second baseman.
4) Mickey Mantle: Best sophomore year.
5) Robin Roberts: Best ML pitcher.
6) Bobby Shantz: Best AL pitcher.
7) Al Rosen: Best AL third baseman.
8) Yogi Berra: Best ML catcher.
9) Hank Sauer: Best ML left fielder.
10) Joe Black: Best ML reliever.

This ballot can be used as my official one if I don't post something by the end of the election.
   22. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 12, 2014 at 08:16 PM (#4670653)
Yup. Still do.


Heh. I thought you were channeling Kurt Schaffenberger there. :-)
   23. DL from MN Posted: March 17, 2014 at 01:30 PM (#4672851)
1952 World Series

Player G  AB  R  H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO  BA  OBP  SLG  OPS  SB  CS  E
Bauer 7  18  2  1  0  0  0  1  4  3  .056  .227  .056  .283  0  1  0  
Berra 7  28  2  6  1  0  2  3  2  4  .214  .267  .464  .731  0  0  1
Collins 6  12  1  0  0  0  0  0  1  3  .000  .077  .000  .077  0  0  0  
Mantle  7  29  5  10  1  1  2  3  3  4  .345  .406  .655  1.061  0  0  0
Rizzuto 7  27  2  4  1  0  0  0  5  2  .148  .281  .185  .466  0  1  1
Woodling 7  23  4  8  1  1  1  1  3  3  .348  .423  .609  1.032  0  0  1

Hodges 7  21  1  0  0  0  0  1  5  6  .000  .192  .000  .192  0  0  1
Reese 7  29  4  10  0  0  1  4  2  2  .345  .387  .448  .835  1  1  2  
Robinson 7  23  4  4  0  0  1  2  7  5  .174  .367  .304  .671  2  0  0
Snider 7  29  5  10  2  0  4  8  1  5  .345  .387  .828  1.215  1  0  0  

Pitcher G  GS  ERA  W  L  SV  CG  IP  H  ER  BB  SO  WHIP
Reynolds 4  2  1.77  2  1  1  1  20.1  12  4  6  18  0.885

Black 3  3  2.53  1  2  0  1  21.1  15  6  8  9  1.078
Erskine 3  2  4.50  1  1  0  1  18.0  12  9  10  10  1.222
Loes 2  1  4.35  0  1  0  0  10.1  11  5  5  5  1.548  

   24. DL from MN Posted: March 17, 2014 at 01:36 PM (#4672859)
Joe Black gets 10th among my pitchers. Reynolds moves up to 8th. Berra and Mantle move up my ballot too.
   25. DL from MN Posted: March 17, 2014 at 05:59 PM (#4673058)
The Negro Leagues were pretty much depleted at this point but Henry Aaron had some good at-bats for the Indianapolis Clowns before heading to Eau Claire. Bus Clarkson hit .318/.448/.541/.989 for Milwaukee in AAA. Willard Brown appears to have sat out a year, possibly due to a Mexican League blacklist.
   26. bjhanke Posted: March 19, 2014 at 07:04 AM (#4673743)
I know I said I would probably not comment, but these two are, I think, safe from my biases.

1. Al Rosen had serious back problems. Although he was generally a good 3B, the idea that he had a bad year or two in there is hardly unreasonable. If there had been a DH rule in Rosen's time, he'd be, essentially, Edgar Martinez. Actually, Rosen may have been a better hitter than even Edgar.

2. If your system tells you that Solly Hemus had a great season on defense in any year, that's your system sending out a flag saying that it needs a tweaking here. All commentary I have seen (I have no memory of having seen Hemus play) suggests that his defense ran the gamut from "lousy" to "absolutely dreadful." He held a job only because he was one of the very best leadoff men in a game that had a LOT of great leadoff men, because of all the walks (although that is drifting down by 1952). - Brock Hanke
   27. DL from MN Posted: March 19, 2014 at 10:45 AM (#4673889)
Dan R has Hemus as 3 runs below average on defense and basically average as a baserunner in 1952. You bring up a good point that a lot of his value is due to playing time and leading off helped him in that regard.
   28. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: March 19, 2014 at 11:26 AM (#4673926)
1. J. Robinson – for the 4th year in a row I have Jackie as the top player overall. He was the toughest out in baseball (thanks to a career high in walks with 106), made things happen with his legs when he got on base, hit with surprising power for a 2B (career high 19 HRs in ’52), and gobbled up everything hit his way in the field. As good as he was, with as much notoriety that came his way, was Jackie actually underrated? I think maybe so. The man could play some baseball. Damn, I wish I could have been there to see it!

If you can ever find a video of game 3 of the 1955 World Series, you'll see why statistics aren't the complete measure of Jackie Robinson's value. He helped to turn that entire World Series around that afternoon with little more than a series of feints and a very loud mouth. I was an 11 year old Yankee fan and Robinson's baserunning antics that day scared the living #### out of me, and that was without even a single stolen base.
   29. DL from MN Posted: March 19, 2014 at 02:10 PM (#4674052)
Going into more detail on #27 - a bat-first SS will usually bat at the top of the order while a glove-first SS will be batting 8th or 9th. That's about 120 extra plate appearances every year.

http://deadcatsbounce.blogspot.com/2010/02/average-mlb-plate-appearances-by.html

Defensive opportunities would be roughly equal assuming the ground ball tendencies of the pitching staff are similar. This gives a bat-first SS about 16% more opportunities to accumulate value just by being in the lineup.
   30. DL from MN Posted: March 19, 2014 at 02:37 PM (#4674079)
Looking at the 1952 Cardinals pitching staff they were 2nd in strikeouts and walks allowed so their FIP ERA is second only to Philly. Their defensive efficiency is not exceptional but they played fewer defensive innings than Brooklyn for example. Schoendienst rates as one of the best fielders in all of baseball (1.7 FWAA) and it is certainly possible that he helps out Hemus.

Hank Sauer takes home the prize for best fielder above position. Defense is quite a bit of his value in 1952.
   31. tfbg9 Posted: March 19, 2014 at 03:25 PM (#4674103)
He helped to turn that entire World Series around that afternoon with little more than a series of feints and a very loud mouth. I was an 11 year old Yankee fan and Robinson's baserunning antics that day scared the living #### out of me, and that was without even a single stolen base.


I've only ever seen the highlights of that Series. Are you referring to Jackie dancing around off 3rd with the bases loaded, which seemes to rattle the Yankee pitcher into BB'ing him home? (JR had stolen home--he looked out, and Yogi sure thought so!--in an earlier game in the '55 Series IIRC, a game which the Dodgers lost) Also, there's a key play, I think, where JR decoys the Yankees LF'er into throwing behind him on a double and then takes third. Dunno if that was Game 3 as well.

   32. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: March 22, 2014 at 11:52 PM (#4675561)
I didn't realize that posting a prelim ballot here was a pre-requisite to voting, but here's my prelim:

The first 6 are all bunched very closely together:

1. Robin Roberts - Tiebreaker with Shantz were his 6-0, 2.67 dominance of the Dodgers, plus 50 more innings
2. Bobby Shantz - Put up what may have been the best AL pitching performance of the decade
3. Jackie Robinson - The total package of batting, fielding and baserunning
4. Stan Musial - Close call with both Robinson above and Mantle below
5. Mickey Mantle - Tiebreaker with Doby was his MVP-level World Series performance
6. Larry Doby - Virtual tie with The Mick
7. Yogi Berra - Best catcher in the game
8. Billy Pierce - Terrible run support was the cause of his mediocre 15-12 record
9. Hank Sauer - One dimensional player with a great first half
10. Al Rosen - Stellar offensive numbers but statistics hide the awfulness of his fielding

-------------------------------------------------

[Robinson] helped to turn that entire World Series around that afternoon with little more than a series of feints and a very loud mouth. I was an 11 year old Yankee fan and Robinson's baserunning antics that day scared the living #### out of me, and that was without even a single stolen base.

I've only ever seen the highlights of that Series. Are you referring to Jackie dancing around off 3rd with the bases loaded, which seemes to rattle the Yankee pitcher into BB'ing him home? (JR had stolen home--he looked out, and Yogi sure thought so!--in an earlier game in the '55 Series IIRC, a game which the Dodgers lost) Also, there's a key play, I think, where JR decoys the Yankees LF'er into throwing behind him on a double and then takes third. Dunno if that was Game 3 as well.


Yeah, that's the play. The Yankees pitcher was Bob Turley, who hadn't yet adopted his no-windup delivery, and his slow and elaborate full windup (sometimes even a double pump) had already cost him at least one "walkoff" steal of home by the Tigers' Earl Torgeson earlier in the year. Robinson's repeated dancing off third---nearly halfway down the line, accompanied by a banshee scream that you could hear at home over the roar of the crowd---thoroughly unnerved Turley and took him completely out of his rhythm. And as you note, that steal of home just two days earlier was bound to be in Turley's living memory as he saw and heard Robby charging towards home.

And yes, that deke of then-rookie LF Elston Howard was also in game three. Robinson could mess with opponents' minds more than any player I've ever seen in my life.
   33. DL from MN Posted: March 24, 2014 at 10:38 AM (#4676080)
Hank Sauer - One dimensional player with a great first half


From the numbers the one dimension was his outstanding glove
   34. Michael J. Binkley's anxiety closet Posted: March 25, 2014 at 01:53 PM (#4676822)
I’ve voted for a few years for the HoM, but this is my first time dipping my toes in the MMP Project.

I use a combination of WAR Valuations (BB-Ref, FG, Chone, Seamheads, BP, Davenport, DanR) to get an average WAR. I take 3 times that number and add it to a DanR-style salary estimation (divided by 1,000,000) to get my final value. I use a 20% catcher bonus.

So here it goes . . .

1. Jackie Robinson, 2b bro (47.06 – Just barely ahead of Shantz.
2. Bobby Shantz, sp pha (46.42) – My top pitcher of 1952.
3. Robin Roberts, sp phi (45.42) – My top NL pitcher of 1952and the last of my clear top 3.
4. Larry Doby, cf cle (38.19) – My top AL position player.
5. Stan Musial. Cf stl (37.10) – Slighty ahead of Doby on raw average WAR, but Doby’s advantage on rate slides him ahead of the Man.
6. Billy Pierce, sp cws (34.63)
7. Yogi Berra, c nyy (34.28) – Jumps ahead of the Mick due to catcher bonus.
8. Mickey Mantle, cf nyy (34.23)
9. Warren Spahn, sp bsn (33.48) – Best player for the Boston Braves last year.
10. Al Rosen, 3b cle (31.37)

11-20. Lemon, Raffensberger, Garcia, Hodges, Sauer, Rush, Hemus, Reynolds, Hacker, Fain.
   35. Chris Fluit Posted: March 25, 2014 at 02:24 PM (#4676836)
Welcome to the MMP side of the Hall of Merit, Michael.
   36. DL from MN Posted: March 25, 2014 at 07:54 PM (#4677008)
Like both the ballots. Do either of you give postseason credit?
   37. SoCalDemon Posted: March 26, 2014 at 02:14 PM (#4677346)
First vote (along with 1953) in a long time for me. For a first cut, made a rough list by adding WAR + 15% of Win Shares (+20% catcher bonus); no real reason, it just looked reasonable to me. Then made adjustments that made sense (often based on not buying into the defensive portion of WAR if it seemed way out of whack with surrounding years).

1. Bobby Shantz 280IP 9.6 WAR 159 ERA+, led league in wins and WHIP

Gap

2. Jackie Robinson 636PA 8.5 WAR 149 OPS+, led league in OBP, excellent baserunning and solid defense at 2B
3. Robin Roberts 330IP 8.5 WAR 141 ERA+, led league in W, CG, innings
4. Stan Musial 678PA 8.0 WAR 167 OPS+, led league in runs, hits, doubles, avg, slugging %, OPS and OPS+ (between 1949 and 1953, had highest OPS and OPS+ in league in the two years with his lowest OPS/OPS+ in that stretch)

Gap

5. Yogi Berra 603PA 5.5 WAR 137 OPS+, led league in starts at catcher (140) by 20 games
6. Larry Doby 611PA 7.0 WAR 163 OPS+, led league in runs, HR, slg %, and OPS+
7. Billy Pierce 255IP 7.2 WAR 142 ERA+, only 3 UER (really unspectacular 7 win season, if that makes sense)
8. Mickey Mantle 626PA 6.4 WAR 162 OPS+, led league in OPS
9. Solly Hemus 690PA 6.7 WAR 126 OPS+, excellent defense at SS, led league in HBP with 20 (very high amount for era, only season with 20 between 1921 and 1955; also none between 1957 and 1966)
10. Warren Spahn 290IP 7.0 WAR 122 ERA+, led league in SO

11. Al Rosen 649PA 6.0 WAR 160 OPS+, led league in RBI, TB

(I could see switching anybody between 5-11)

12-15: Alvin Dark, Hank Sauer, Gil Hodges, Bob Lemon
16-20: Ken Raffensberger, Bob Rush, Red Schoendienst, Ferris Fain, Mike Garcia
   38. DL from MN Posted: March 28, 2014 at 09:15 PM (#4678467)
I'll extend the balloting if we keep having these site issues.
   39. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: March 28, 2014 at 09:50 PM (#4678475)
Hank Sauer - One dimensional player with a great first half

From the numbers the one dimension was his outstanding glove


I'm assuming that's tongue in cheek, since Sauer's OPS splits that year were .976 1st half/ .803 2nd half, while his defensive WAR for the year was 0.0. And given that he had 11 stolen bases in his entire career, I think it's safe to say that his speed-related fielding skills were minimal.
   40. DL from MN Posted: April 04, 2014 at 02:35 PM (#4679428)
dWAR of zero for a corner outfielder is actually pretty good.
   41. DL from MN Posted: April 04, 2014 at 02:46 PM (#4679438)
Going out on a limb but I think Hank Williams wins 1952 in music.
   42. Morty Causa Posted: April 04, 2014 at 03:21 PM (#4679477)
Yet, no one could put up with him for very long. What player does that remind us of?
   43. Michael J. Binkley's anxiety closet Posted: April 06, 2014 at 11:38 AM (#4680257)
DL in MN -

I do not give post-season credit. Not that I don't think the games count, but I feel that 1) especially at this point, it's an extremely small sample size - at most still less than 5% of the season length; and 2) and more importantly to me, the fact that most players don't get the opportunity to get postseason credit outweighs the value of it for those that do.

I would only use it as a tiebreaker if players came out absolutely tied in my system.
   44. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: April 07, 2014 at 07:39 AM (#4680751)
Going out on a limb but I think Hank Williams wins 1952 in music.


In C&W? Definitely. Ol' Hank went out on top, after battling newcomer Lefty Frizzell the previous year for hillbilly supremacy.

In pop music? Frankie Laine? Kay Starr? Eddie Fisher?
   45. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: April 07, 2014 at 07:44 AM (#4680754)
DL in MN -

I do not give post-season credit. Not that I don't think the games count, but I feel that 1) especially at this point, it's an extremely small sample size - at most still less than 5% of the season length; and 2) and more importantly to me, the fact that most players don't get the opportunity to get postseason credit outweighs the value of it for those that do.

I would only use it as a tiebreaker if players came out absolutely tied in my system.


That's what I do, too.

I'm all for rewarding playing for their postseason efforts, but not as part of a combination with their regular season stats. All the latter does is reward players who lucked out by having better teammates than others.
   46. DL from MN Posted: April 07, 2014 at 09:39 AM (#4680789)
I've seen several approaches for postseason. I just add credit for the games played. Some don't add any credit. I've also seen hybrid approaches which reward a good postseason that raised the player's rate stats by applying the improved rate production over the regular season playing time.

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