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Monday, May 19, 2014

Most Meritorious Player: 1954 Ballot

For 1954, each voter should rank their top 10 players from both leagues combined.

Balloting is scheduled to close at 4pm EST on 4 June 2014.

Anyone can vote, even if you do not normally participate in Hall of Merit discussions. If have never participated in an MMP election, just post a preliminary ballot in the discussion thread by 3 June 2014.

For detailed rules see one of our previous ballots.

DL from MN Posted: May 19, 2014 at 03:20 PM | 28 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. DL from MN Posted: May 19, 2014 at 03:42 PM (#4709690)
1954 Ballot

1) Willie Mays - best season of the 1950s so far
2) Johnny Antonelli - postseason credit bumps him to the top
3) Eddie Mathews - within the margin of error for #2
4) Bobby Avila - incredible season considering his injury
5) Minnie Minoso
6) Ted Williams - missed a month and was still this high on the list
7) Yogi Berra - C bonus
8) Robin Roberts - another outstanding season
9) Stan Musial - same here
10) Mickey Mantle

11-16) Duke Snider, Ted Kluszewski, Gil Hodges, Larry Doby, Richie Ashburn, Steve Gromek - lots of good CF but not much AL pitching

   2. bjhanke Posted: May 19, 2014 at 05:31 PM (#4709753)
Ah. I'm pretty much recovered. I should be able to get the new computer this week. I should be able to do a a ballot after all. I WILL be sure to post a prelim, since I missed last year. - Brock
   3. Chris Fluit Posted: May 19, 2014 at 05:40 PM (#4709757)
1954 Ballot

1. Willie Mays, CF, New York Giants- 1st in OPS+, 2nd in RC, an eye-popping +21 in centerfield
2. Duke Snider, CF, Brooklyn Dodgers- Duke's best offensive year though WAR prefers his overall game in '53; 3rd in OPS+ and 1st in RC
3. Ted Williams, LF, Boston Red Sox- an amazing 201 OPS+, easily first in the AL despite playing in only 117 games
4. Ted Klusewski, 1B, Cincinnati Reds- 167 OPS+ and 149 RC
5. Eddie Mathews, 3B, Milwaukee Braves- a nice follow-up to his breakthrough season, 2nd in OPS+ but only 138 games
6. Stan Musial, RF, St. Louis Cardinals- fourth in the NL in both OPS+ and RC
7. Johnny Antonelli, P, New York Giants- a MLB leading 178 ERA+ nudges him ahead of Roberts
8. Robin Roberts, P, Philadelphia Phillies- a MLB leading 336 innings pitched isn't quite enough to catch Antonelli
9. Minnie Minoso, LF, Chicago White Sox- 3rd in AL OPS+, 2nd in RC with another +16 fielding runs between left, right, center and third
10. Yogi Berra, C, New York Yankees- a top ten OPS+ and RC from a full-time catcher

11. Mickey Mantle, CF, New York Yankees
12. Gil Hodges, 1B, Brooklyn Dodgers
13. Bobby Avila, 2B, Cleveland Indians- the best player on the pennant winning team
14. Curt Simmons, P, Philadelphia Phillies
15. Early Wynn, P, Cleveland Indians- edges out Garcia as top pitcher in the junior circuit
16. Pee Wee Reese, SS, Brooklyn Dodgers
17. Mike Garcia, P, Cleveland Indians
18. Virgil Trucks, P, Chicago White Sox
19. Bob Lemon, P, Cleveland Indians
20. Steve Gromek, P, Detroit Tigers- not a lot to separate the better AL pitchers
   4. Moeball Posted: May 19, 2014 at 05:49 PM (#4709759)
This was my final prelim and I'm sticking with it for the final ballot. Gromek is my AL top pitcher. Ted Williams missed too many games to overtake Mays, Mathews and Snider, in my opinion, but I do feel comfortable in saying that for the first time since 1949 he was pretty clearly the top hitter in baseball.

1)Willie Mays
2)Eddie Mathews
3)Duke Snider
4)Ted Williams
5)Minnie Minoso
6)John Antonelli
7)Robin Roberts
8)Yogi Berra
9)Stan Musial
10)Ted Kluszewski
   5. MrC Posted: May 20, 2014 at 10:09 AM (#4710055)
1954 Ballot

Batters: start with RAA (using XR runs), adjust for park, position and defense (average of TZ, and DRA) Convert adjusted RAA to wins. Add 60% of normal Runs above replacement to get WARR (wins above reduced replacement)

Pitchers: start with RAA, adjust for quality of opposition, park, and team defense (average of TZ, DRA) Convert adjusted RAA to wins. Add 60% of normal runs above replacement to get WARR (wins above reduced replacement)

1. Willie Mays 10.27 WARR An amaysing year; both on offense and defense
2. Eddie Mathews 7.67 WARR
3. Ted Williams 7.59 WARR
4. Robin Roberts 7.22 WARR
5. Ted Kluszewski 7.16 WARR
6. Duke Snider 7.13 WARR
7. Minnie Minoso 7.03 WARR
8. Gil Hodges 6.76 WARR
9. Bobby Avila 6.58 WARR
10. Richie Ashburn 6.56 WARR

Rest of top 20
Stan Musial
Mickey Mantle
Johnny Antonelli
Yogi Berra
Larry Doby
Steve Gromek
Bob Rush
Pee Wee Reese
Warren Spahn
Al Rosen
   6. EricC Posted: May 20, 2014 at 03:03 PM (#4710266)
1954 MMP ballot.

1. Willie Mays.
2. Johnny Antonelli. World Series performance pushes him over Roberts.
3. Robin Roberts.
4. Yogi Berra.
5. Ted Kluszewski.
6. Eddie Mathews.
7. Stan Musial.
8. Minnie Minoso.
9. Duke Snider.
10. Bobby Avila.

11. Ted Williams. 12. Gil Hodges. 13. Mickey Mantle. 14. Early Wynn over 15. Mike Garcia
as top AL pitcher.
   7. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: May 20, 2014 at 04:09 PM (#4710303)
Official 1954 MMP Ballot (no postseason credit and includes league adjustmentds):

1) Willie Mays - Best ML player.
2) Eddie Mathews - Best NL player.
3) Duke Snider - Best ML center fielder.
4) Mickey Mantle - Best AL center fielder.
5) Larry Doby
6) Ted Williams - Best ML left fielder.
7) Ted Kluszewski - Best ML first baseman.
8) Yogi Berra - Best ML catcher.
9) Robin Roberts - Best ML pitcher.
10) Bobby Avila - Best ML second baseman.

Best AL pitcher - Steve Gromek.
   8. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: May 20, 2014 at 06:48 PM (#4710374)
adjustmentds


adjustments
   9. lieiam Posted: May 24, 2014 at 06:32 PM (#4712906)
1954 Final Ballot.
(same as my prelim)

1 Mays, Willie 10000
2 Snider, Duke 8289
3 Mathews, Eddie 7922
4 Roberts, Robin 7747
5 Minoso, Minnie 7681
6 Mantle, Mickey 7676
7 Berra, Yogi 7500
8 Williams, Ted 7391
9 Kluszewski, Ted 7367
10 Avila, Bobby 7331

11 Musial, Stan 7067
12 Antonelli, Johnny 6942
13 Hodges, Gil 6579
14 Doby, Larry 6272
15 Ashburn, Richie 5993
16 Garcia, Mike 5902
17 Wynn, Early 5880
18 Lemon, Bob 5462
19 Gromek, Steve 5375
20 Rosen, Al 5307
   10. DL from MN Posted: May 27, 2014 at 10:07 AM (#4713825)
John Murphy - you picked up on "adjustments" but said Duke Snider was the best MLB CF.
   11. DL from MN Posted: May 30, 2014 at 04:28 PM (#4716229)
Reminder - ballot is scheduled to close next Wednesday.
   12. bjhanke Posted: June 01, 2014 at 04:53 PM (#4716946)
This is Brock Hanke's MMP ballot for 1954. There was a lot of Win share / WAR consensus this year, which was a surprise. But the real surprise is how few candidates are black players from the NL. On DL's header, the only NL black guys are Willie Mays and Hank Thompson. The AL has three: Larry Doby, Minnie Minoso, and Al Smith. The Dodgers don't have even one black guy on the header.

The tenth spot on the ballot was impossible to sort out between Yogi Berra, Stan Musial and Johnny Antonelli. Yogi would have had the spot based on being a catcher, but the AL was the weaker league. I eventually just threw up my hands and gave the spot to Stan Musial because I love Stan Musial, and he was as good as any other choice.

Ted Kluszewski became a superstar this year, when the Reds pulled in the left field fence in Crosley Field, exploding Klu's homer numbers. Klu had one real oddity in his hitting. He never walked, and he never struck out, and that's compared to pretty much anyone, not just other power hitters. I don't know, offhand, of anyone else who K'd and W'd less than Klu with similar power. I'm sure that a BB-Ref sort will turn up a couple of similar guys, but I can't do one of those yet.

My highest-ranked AL pitcher would have been Mike Garcia, who would have come in about 20th overall. That's the notes; here's the list:

1. Willie Mays
2. Duke Snider
3. Ted Kluszewski
4. Robin Roberts
5. Eddie Mathews
6. Mickey Mantle
7. Minnie Minoso
8. Bobby Avila
9. Ted Williams
10. Stan Musial
   13. bjhanke Posted: June 01, 2014 at 05:00 PM (#4716953)
Chris' ballot (#3) had the following surprising comment about Ted Williams: "an amazing 201 OPS+, easily first in the AL despite playing in only 117 games." OPS+ is a rate stat; games played are irrelevant to it. Williams does not rank as high in either Win Shares or WAR as he does on Chris' ballot. Chris, did you make the mistake of not adjusting Ted's OPS+ stats for playing time because, for one minute or two, you took his OPS+ at face value for a full season? It's hard to believe that you could do that - you NEVER make mistakes that bad - but I thought I should at least ask, just in case. It's not like I never have those things, but Chris almost never does this. - Brock Hanke
   14. DL from MN Posted: June 02, 2014 at 09:56 AM (#4717211)
Voted last year, no ballot yet:

OCF
Michael Binkley
Tubbs
toratoratora
SoCalDemon
   15. Chris Fluit Posted: June 02, 2014 at 12:04 PM (#4717340)
Chris' ballot (#3) had the following surprising comment about Ted Williams: "an amazing 201 OPS+, easily first in the AL despite playing in only 117 games." OPS+ is a rate stat; games played are irrelevant to it. Williams does not rank as high in either Win Shares or WAR as he does on Chris' ballot. Chris, did you make the mistake of not adjusting Ted's OPS+ stats for playing time because, for one minute or two, you took his OPS+ at face value for a full season? It's hard to believe that you could do that - you NEVER make mistakes that bad - but I thought I should at least ask, just in case. It's not like I never have those things, but Chris almost never does this. - Brock Hanke


I appreciate the confidence. I think I make plenty of mistakes but I'm glad to hear you say otherwise.

My formula does include a playing time component and I make sure to incorporate counting as well as rate stats. That being the case, I was a little surprised myself that Williams placed as well as he did. Before I ran the numbers, I expected Minnie Minoso to finish first in the AL. However, Williams had one of those years that is so extraordinary that 117 games of Williams was more valuable than 150 games of anyone else- kind of like George Brett in 1980 or John McGraw in some of his 1890s seasons. Despite playing in only 117 games, Williams still led the AL in the counting stats of walks and runs created. I considered regressing Williams' OPS+ due to playing time but rejected that idea when looking at the rest of his career. Williams was perfectly capable of putting up a 200 OPS+ for a full season so it didn't seem valid to dock him above and beyond the playing time component already included in my formula.

William is also second in WAR among American Leaguers. I may have him rated higher than WAR, but not unreasonably so.
   16. Michael J. Binkley's anxiety closet Posted: June 02, 2014 at 12:50 PM (#4717383)
1954 Final Ballot (same as prelim):

I use a combination of WAR systems to get an average WAR for each player. I use that number to get a Dan R-style salary estimation. I divide that salary by $1 million and add 3 times the average WAR to that dividend. I use a 20% bonus for catchers and do not credit postseason except as a tiebreaker.

1. Willie Mays (62.76)
2. Robin Roberts (48.14) – top ML Pitcher
3. Minnie Minoso (46.80) – AL MMP
4. Eddie Mathews (42.80)
5. Ted Williams (40.37)
6. Duke Snider (40.12)
7. Bobby Avila (38.79)
8. Yogi Berra (37.27)
9. Stan Musial (35.42)
10. Mickey Mantle (35.38)

11-20. Antonelli, Kluszewski, Ashburn, Hodges, Reese, Spahn, Doby, Rosen, Gromek (top AL pitcher), Wynn.

Coincidentally, the names in my #2, 4, 6, 8, and 9 ballot spots are the exact same from my 1953 ballot.
   17. bjhanke Posted: June 02, 2014 at 09:32 PM (#4717781)
Chris - Thanks for the explanation. I realized that the biggest chances were 1) the comment just got worded badly and had nothing to do with your analysis and ballot, and 2) you had worked things through, and just had Ted ranked very high. It turned out to be #2. The idea that you'd actually ranked Ted high because you'd had a brain fry on the relationship between rate and accumulating stats was a LOT lower on the percentage chance list. The analysis was interesting in itself, BTW. Ted's 1954 was one of the first baseball disputes that I was aware of (1954 was when my dad started taking me to games; I was 6), so I was aware of the injury, the lack of laying time, the cutoff point for the batting average title being expressed in AB, which got changed to PA when Williams failed to make the cut, Bobby Avila, all of that. It is hard to believe that anyone could play 117 games and be a serious MVP candidate, but if anyone could, it would be Ted. And you, Chris, just don't make this kind of mistake, where you have a brain fry. I make a lot of them; you don't. It was a real surprise to see something that looked like it might be one. - Brock
   18. Tubbs & Minnie Miñoso don't fear Sid Monge Posted: June 02, 2014 at 11:55 PM (#4717861)
Final ballot, no postseason credit but a small bonus for playing on Pennant contender
1. Mays
2. Snider
3. Kluszewski--I'd love to see more discussion of Kluszewski who, physically, looks like he'd be a Three True Outcomes player but his HR/K ratio is similar to Mattingly's but with more HRs
4. Williams
5. Minoso--long overdue HOFer, hope to see this rectified by Golden Era Committee in December!
6. Mathews
7. Antonelli
8. Doby--waited way too long to get in HOF
9. Avila
10.Berra

Just missing--Roberts & Hodges
Top AL pitcher--Mike Garcia
   19. bjhanke Posted: June 03, 2014 at 01:57 PM (#4718129)
I can't add much to what I said above about Kluszewski, because I have no idea how Klu was able to do what he did. I can note that, when he started out, Crosley Field was very large in LF, and even Klu had trouble getting the ball out of the park. But, when they moved the fence in, although Klu's homer totals went through the roof, he didn't really make any gains in walks. Making the assumption that pitchers were trying to keep the ball away from Klu, I guess you have to conclude that he would swing at pretty much everything. Most guys who do that don't last in the majors, because they strike out all the time. Willie McGee had this problem, and he didn't have any power; I doubt he would have had a MLB career if he had not been able to play CF. But there is a subset - people like Nellie Fox and Matty Alou, who just have bat accuracy, regardless of the strike zone. The odd thing is that almost none of these guys have any power. They are slap hitters who work to improve their bat accuracy. My impression is that Klu was anything but a polished hitter. He swung at everything because he could hit everything. This wasn't anything he learned to do; it was a tool, not a skill. Of course, the inability to take walks cuts deeply into Klu's value, but it is also true that he never struck out. - Brock
   20. DL from MN Posted: June 03, 2014 at 03:42 PM (#4718269)
Brock - sounds like Vlad Guerrero
   21. toratoratora Posted: June 03, 2014 at 05:32 PM (#4718353)
1954 Final

1-Mays
2-Snider
3-Klu
4-Matthews
5-Teddy Ballgame
6-Roberts
7-Minoso
8-Avila
9-Mantle
10-Musial

(Top AL Pitcher-Garcia)
   22. DL from MN Posted: June 04, 2014 at 12:41 PM (#4718786)
Ballot closes today
   23. sunnyday2 Posted: June 04, 2014 at 01:20 PM (#4718817)
1. Willie Mays. Virtually indistinguishable from Snider on offense. Mays 87 XBH, Snider 89. But Mays gets the edge on D.
2. Duke Snider. ML leading 250 R + RBI.
3. Bobby Avila. AL MVP in my book.
4. Yogi Berra. Gets the edge over Mantle, actually had more XBH.
5. Mickey Mantle. Worst of the NY CFers! 231 R + RBI.
6. Stan Musial. 85 XBH. 2nd with 246 R + RBI.
7. Ted Kluszewski. 80 XBH. 3rd with 245 R + RBI.
8. Minnie Minoso. 66 XBH, 10 more than Mantle. 235 R + RBI.
9. Ted Williams. Great rates, didn't play enough.
10. Larry Doby. 220 R + RBI but just 54 XBH.
   24. DL from MN Posted: June 04, 2014 at 01:44 PM (#4718839)
Welcome back sunnyday! Sunnyday is a former participant so I can waive the prelim requirements but I would like to make sure you didn't forget Eddie Mathews.
   25. sunnyday2 Posted: June 04, 2014 at 03:28 PM (#4718975)
It was Doby or Mathews at #10. Each had 33 WS, Mathews had more XBH 65-54 but Doby had more R + RBI 220-199. I know those are not the latest and greatest numbers but they're ones I look at at least.

This was a weird year, you could slice this a lot of different ways, as y'all have done, though I now see that Mathews ranked pretty highly on every other ballot. I assume he does well in WAR.

I am happy to see Bobby Avila made most ballots but on one he didn't even make the top 20.

Ted Williams anywhere from 3 to 11.

Mantle ahead of Berra 3X (?), Berra ahead of Mantle 2X (?). Berra misses a couple ballots altogether?? A FT catcher at 22-125-.307 with more XBH than Mantle or Doby or Rosen not in the top 10?

If there were more years like this I'd probably still be voting. I mean, not so cut and dried. I tried really hard to have Duke Snider #1, too, btw. Couldn't do it. But how about Hodges 42-130-.304 and barely a sniff.

Weird year. Thanks DL. I was indeed a HoMer circa 1897 or whenever the 1st election was. Was that about 12 years ago now? Really???
   26. DL from MN Posted: June 04, 2014 at 04:00 PM (#4719030)
Election is closed
   27. Tubbs & Minnie Miñoso don't fear Sid Monge Posted: June 04, 2014 at 04:24 PM (#4719056)
Brock, thanks for adding more info about Kluszewski
   28. toratoratora Posted: June 04, 2014 at 04:52 PM (#4719094)
Mantle ahead of Berra 3X (?), Berra ahead of Mantle 2X (?). Berra misses a couple ballots altogether?? A FT catcher at 22-125-.307 with more XBH than Mantle or Doby or Rosen not in the top 10?

This year I had more trouble than almost any other with the bottom half of the ballot. I shuffled and reshuffled the order but never felt as if I had it right.For instance, I had Avila ranging anywhere from fifth (The argument: a .341 hitting good fielding 2b with some pop has to be worth more than a poor LF who only plays 117 games, right.) Two players omitted from my ballot, Berra and Antonelli, caused me more difficulty than any other. Antonelli simply because his stats, especially if you count in WS (and leveraging only increases this) are much better than Roberts who I have in the top five, but RR has so many more innings. Berra, Mantle and Musial I vacillated on for a long while.In the end, I couldn't make a judgement on either case, so I went with the order my system kicked them out in originally.
Around here I should mention that had he played more games, Campanella certainly would been involved in this logjam. Heck, he likely would be the main point of contention because he had a heckuva year.
All in all, this was one of those fun years where there are more good candidates than ballot spots.

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