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Tuesday, September 30, 2014

Most Meritorious Player: 1959 Discussion

Dodgers beat the White Sox in the World Series 4 games to 2. Vote for 10. Election will end November 5th 2014.

Player			SH WS		BBR WAR
Banks, Ernie		33.2		10.2
Mathews, Eddie		36.1		8.1
Aaron, Henry		37.4		8.6
Mantle, Mickey		29.4		6.6
Mays, Willie		32.0		7.8
Boyer, Ken		23.9		7.5
Kaline, Al		26.8		6.0
Fox, Nellie		30.3		6.0
Minoso, Minnie		28.9		5.5
Runnels, Pete		23.5		5.3
Yost, Ed		26.3		5.4
Francona, Tito		27.1		4.8
Colavito, Rocky		28.1		5.3
Berra, Yogi		23.3		3.9
Robinson, Frank		25.2		5.8
Pinson, Vada		26.8		6.5
Landis, Jim		25.8		5.7
Jensen, Jackie		21.3		4.5
Neal, Charlie		24.6		4.5
Kuenn, Harvey		25.1		4.2
Hoak, Don		21.8		3.4
Crandall, Del		20.9		4.3
Lollar, Sherm		21.6		3.4
Bailey, Ed		16.0		3.8
Cunningham, Joe		19.9		3.6
Moon, Wally		25.9		5.5
Woodling, Gene		19.5		3.1
Temple, Johnny		21.9		2.9
Held, Woodie		21.9		3.5
Adcock, Joe		17.2		3.8
Malzone, Frank		18.8		2.5
Aparicio, Luis		19.2		3.3
Logan, Johnny		18.7		4.1
Cepeda, Orlando		23.3		3.8
McCovey, Willie		11.7		3.1
Power, Vic		19.3		2.7
Lemon, Jim		19.7		3.2
Killebrew, Harmon	23.2		4.2

Pitcher 		SH WS		BBR WAR
Pascual, Camilo		22.9		8.5
Wilhelm, Hoyt		23.4		6.8
Law, Vern		23.9		6.7
Spahn, Warren		22.2		6.3
Newcombe, Don		20.4		6.7
Jackson, Larry		21.2		6.8
Drysdale, Don		20.5		6.2
Shaw, Bob		23.2		4.6
Jones, Sam		22.0		5.1
Antonelli, John		20.6		4.8
Daley, Bud		17.1		5.0
Conley, Gene		15.9		5.1
Mossi, Don		18.0		4.2
O'Dell, Billy		15.7		3.7
Craig, Roger		16.6		4.3
Wynn, Early		22.2		3.9
Haddix, Harvey		17.1		3.7
Bunning, Jim		16.8		4.0
Walker, Jerry		15.7		3.9
Owens, Jim		16.4		4.2

Henry, Bill		15.2		4.4
Duren, Ryne		10.0		3.7
Face, Roy		14.5		3.2
Staley, Jerry		15.3		2.6

 

DL from MN Posted: September 30, 2014 at 11:17 AM | 26 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. DL from MN Posted: September 30, 2014 at 03:09 PM (#4801746)
We're actually running the 1959 election before 2014.

October 1959
November 2014 plus Hall of Merit election
December 1960
January 1901

--------

Regarding 1959, McCovey needs an MLE
   2. toratoratora Posted: September 30, 2014 at 04:28 PM (#4801794)
1959 Prelim.
The usual blend of WAR systems. 10 points for first, 9 for second, 8 for third and so on.
No adjustments whatsoever. Comments will be with final ballot.

1 Ernie Banks
2 Eddie Mathews
3 Hank Aaron
4 Camilo Pascual
5 Willie Mays
6 Mickey Mantle
7 Warren Spahn
8 Larry Jackson
9 Nellie Fox
10 Eddie Yost

The best of the rest:

11 Don Newcombe
12 Vern Law
13 Ken Boyer
14 Minnie Minoso
15 Hoyt Wilhelm

   3. EricC Posted: September 30, 2014 at 05:12 PM (#4801824)
1959 prelim. Each position is represented- put Wilhelm in the bullpen, and there would even be
a relief pitcher on the list.

1. Ernie Banks
2. Hank Aaron- extremely close to Banks
3. Eddie Mathews
4. Minnie Minoso
5. Nellie Fox- couldn't strike him out
6. Hoyt Wilhelm
7. Willie Mays
8. Yogi Berra
9. Camilo Pascual
10. Frank Robinson

11-15: Vern Law, Rocky Colavito, Wally Moon, Mickey Mantle, Tito Francona
(Francona makes the top 15 despite only 443 plate appearances).

Ken Boyer had the type of high-WAR season that does poorly in my
Win-Shares-heavy system. Seems to be one or two of them every year.
   4. MrC Posted: September 30, 2014 at 10:22 PM (#4802288)
Your quite wrong Eric, Fox did strike out: 13 times in 717 PA. ;-)
   5. MrC Posted: September 30, 2014 at 10:31 PM (#4802299)
1959 All Stars

NL

C. Ed Bailey
1B Joe Adcock
2B Charlie Neal
3B Eddie Mathews
SS Ernie Banks
OF Hank Aaron
OF Willie Mays
OF Vada Pinson
SP: Don Drysdale, Larry Jackson, Vern Law, Warren Spahn
RP Bill Henry

AL

C Yogi Berra
1B Vic Power
2B Pete Runnels
3B Harmon Killebrew
SS Woodie Held
OF Jackie Jensen
OF Mickey Mantle
OF Tito Francona
SP Camilo Pascual, Hoyt Wilhelm, Bob Shaw, Early Wynn
SR Gerry Staley
   6. MrC Posted: September 30, 2014 at 10:35 PM (#4802306)
Hadn't included batting stats for Newcombe; with them he moves into the top 4 of the NL pitchers
   7. DL from MN Posted: October 01, 2014 at 04:32 PM (#4803446)
1959 prelim

1) Ernie Banks - not really close either
2) Eddie Mathews
3) Henry Aaron - bridesmaid again
4) Camilo Pascual - another year as the top P. My respect keeps growing
5) Hoyt Wilhelm
6) Mickey Mantle
7) Willie Mays
8) Ken Boyer
9) Vern Law
10) Al Kaline

11-15) Nellie Fox, Don Newcombe, Warren Spahn, Larry Jackson, Minnie Minoso
16-20) Ed Yost, Bob Shaw, Tito Francona, Rocky Colavito, Yogi Berra
21-23) Frank Robinson, Don Drysdale, Vada Pinson

Fox is far enough behind Kaline that 6 games of postseason is probably not going to be enough.
   8. DL from MN Posted: October 01, 2014 at 04:33 PM (#4803450)
McCovey hit .372/.459/.759 in 405 minor league plate appearances before he tore it up as a callup. He hit .319/.387/.507 in a full AAA season in 1958 too so pretty much everyone had to know he was ready. By WARP2/year he's between Aaron and Mantle. He went back to AAA in 1960 for some reason also. I don't think people understood the difference in parks between Seals Stadium and Candlestick.
   9. Chris Fluit Posted: October 01, 2014 at 04:41 PM (#4803463)
1959 Prelim

1. Ernie Banks, SS, Chicago Cubs: 4th in OPS+ and RC while adding an outstanding +23 at the second toughest defensive position
2. Hank Aaron, RF, Milwaukee Braves: 1st in OPS+ and RC but only -4 in fielding runs
3. Eddie Mathews, 3B, Milwaukee Braves: 2nd in OPS+ and RC but only -2 in fielding runs
4. Willie Mays, CF, San Francisco Giants: a down year for the Say Hey Kid, only 3rd in OPS+ and RC and only +4 fielding runs- everybody should have a down year like that
5. Hoyt Wilhelm, P, Baltimore Orioles: the best player in the AL with a 173 ERA+ and 226 innings
6. Mickey Mantle, CF, New York Yankees: 1st in the AL in OPS+ and RC
7. Frank Robinson, RF, Cincinnati Reds: 5th in the NL in OPS+ and RC but doesn't have Mantle's defensive contributions
8. Al Kaline, RF, Detroit Tigers: tied for 1st in OPS+, tied for 2nd in RC, adds +7 runs in right field
9. Ken Boyer, 3B, St. Louis Cardinals
10. Eddie Yost, 3B, Detroit Tigers- a good year for 3B men as Boyer and Yost close out the top ten

11. Toothpick Sam Jones, P, San Francisco Giants: the best starting pitcher in the NL for the second straight season with a 134 ERA+ and 270 innings
12. Camile Pascual, P, Washington Senators: 149 ERA+ in 238 innings
13. Tito Francona, CF, Cleveland Indians: great numbers in a partial season
14. Warren Spahn, P, Milwaukee Braves
15. Johnny Antonelli, P, San Francisco Giants
16. Vada Pinson, CF, Cincinnati Reds
17. Vern Law, P, Pittsburgh Pirates
18. Nellie Fox, 2B, Chicago White Sox
19. Pete Runnels, 2B/1B, Boston Red Sox
20. Yogi Berra, C, New York Yankees
   10. DL from MN Posted: October 01, 2014 at 04:44 PM (#4803470)
I have Pascual's season as one of the top 10 for pitchers from 50-59
   11. Chris Fluit Posted: October 01, 2014 at 05:06 PM (#4803508)
I look at ERA rather than FIP, and Pascual isn't quite as dominant as that. I also have Jones ahead of Pascual partly due to league strength.
   12. DL from MN Posted: October 03, 2014 at 10:13 AM (#4805309)
Looks like Mantle is basically the best position player in the AL from 55-62.
   13. DL from MN Posted: October 03, 2014 at 10:15 AM (#4805311)
Pascual and Wilhelm hit pretty well for pitchers. Law didn't. Newcombe hit pretty well period.
   14. BTL: Primate 4th Class Trainee for Life! Posted: October 03, 2014 at 10:45 AM (#4805356)
Newcombe's 1.9 WAR hitting alone in 1959,5th on team, despite limited plate appearances - (FRob, Pinson, Bailey, Temple ahead) plus 4.8 WAR pitching, second highest on team was 1.6 --which I guess is why team had a losing record.
   15. bjhanke Posted: October 03, 2014 at 11:42 AM (#4805401)
DL - Thanks for being a guy with whom I can disagree in one thread, and he will still listen to me, or anyone else trying to be reasonable. Second, could you set up the 1959 Discussion thread ahead of time. If I can get both 2014 and 1959 done before Halloween, I'll have enough time to get my Hall of Merit work done. The Hall of Merit research involves a LOT of time, and a singular focus. I can't really do the HoM AND a MMP the same month because I'll short-sheet 1960 because I can't drop my focus on the MMP ballot. Thanks! - Brock Hanke
   16. MrC Posted: October 03, 2014 at 11:43 AM (#4805402)
1959 Preliminary


Batters: start with RAA (using value added runs), adjust for park, position and defense (using DRA) Convert adjusted RAA to wins. Add 60% of normal Runs above replacement to get WARR (wins above reduced replacement)

Pitchers: Calculate RAA using a pitchers FIP and calculate RAA using a pitcher's value added runs.

Calculate RAA, using a blend of RA9 and FIP from above, adjust for quality of opposition and park. Convert adjusted RAA to wins. Add 60% of normal runs above replacement to get WARR (wins above reduced replacement). Add Hitter WAR for overall WARR.

1. Ernie Banks 9.59 WARR
2. Eddie Mathews 8.01 WARR position adjustment and better fielding numbers give Mathews a slight edge over Aaron
3. Hank Aaron 7.80 WARR
4. Willie Mays 6.80 WARR
5. Camilo Pascual 6.25 WARR one of the best pitching performances of the past few years
6. Mickey Mantle 6.23 WARR
7. Ken Boyer 6.01 WARR
8. Jackie Jensen 5.99 WARR
9. Don Drysdale 5.85 WARR Excellent hitting numbers, in addition to solid pitching put Drysdale at the top of NL hurlers
10. Tito Francona 5.60 WARR

Rest of the top 20

Rocky Colavito
Don Newcombe Superior hitting gives Newcombe a better rating than several others with better pitching stats
Harmon Killebrew
Joe Adcock
Frank Robinson
Al Kaline
Larry Jackson
Minnie Minoso
Yogi Berra
Vada Pinson

Willie McCovey earned 3.6 WARR in 219 PA (52 games). With his great minor league numbers, I expect he will move into the top 20 on my final ballot; and might possibly knock on the door of the top 10.

Note: On pitching stats alone, Wilhelm would be a top 20 player, but his very poor batting stats (.053/.111/.053 slash line) lowered his rating.
   17. DL from MN Posted: October 03, 2014 at 02:19 PM (#4805639)
could you set up the 1959 Discussion thread ahead of time


Do you mean 1960? This is the 1959 discussion thread.
   18. DL from MN Posted: October 03, 2014 at 02:31 PM (#4805656)
Thanks for mentioning Wilhelm's batting line. My spreadsheet has him at 0 BWAA and Pascual at -0.1. Newcombe is +0.5 and Vern Law at -1.3. Something isn't right.
   19. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: October 03, 2014 at 04:24 PM (#4805929)
Regarding 1959, McCovey needs an MLE


As noted above, .372/.459/.759 in the PCL, aha, the PCL I thought, but league was only .256/.322/.383 that year (Though Phoenix was evidently quite the hitter's park)

he lapped the field, next best OPS was .934 (.306/.390/.543) by 28 year old Bobby Prescott
next was .922, (.319/.362/.559) by Frank Howard
   20. MrC Posted: October 04, 2014 at 12:01 AM (#4806413)
Using Bill James' method for MLEs in the 1985 Baseball Abstract, I came up with a translated line for McCovey of .324/.396/.613.
   21. bjhanke Posted: October 04, 2014 at 02:56 AM (#4806673)
DL - No, I typoed horribly. What I would like is to have the 1959 BALLOT set up early. Once I get started on the HoM, I really can't focus on anything else about baseball. If the 59 ballot is up early, I can post mine up and then get into HoM mode. Sorry about the typo. - Brock
   22. neilsen Posted: October 06, 2014 at 11:58 AM (#4808530)
1959 - the Dodgers steal the pennant away from the Braves and the Giants and win the World Series. Plus its the year of "Moon Shots"
And a couple of well known quotes came about in 1959.
" This is the damnest city I ever saw in my life,they cheer Krushchev and boo Willie Mays".
When he(Mays) smashed a dramatic triple far over the center fielder's head in an All-Star Game in 1959, the San Francisco Chronicle reporter Bob Stevens wrote, ''The only man who could have caught it, hit it.''

1959 preliminary ballot.

1. Ernie Banks - one of the best years ever for a SS. I dont see anybody very close.
2. Hank Aaron - Another big year with the bat and decent enough in the field.
3. Willie Mays - Started and ended the year with injuries. His fielding and amaysing baserunning put him above #4.
4. Eddie Mathews - 2nd and OPS+ but poor fielding puts him here for now.
5. Don Drysdale - NL best pitcher especially considering his home park. Could hit some as well.
6. Camilo Pascual. - Al best pitcher .
7. Ken Boyer
8. Vada Pinson
9. Mickey Mantle
10. Sam Jones

11. Al Kaline
12. Don Newcombe
13. Hoyt Wilhelm
14. Minnie Minoso
15. Frank Robinson - played 1st base most of the year.
   23. Michael J. Binkley's anxiety closet Posted: October 06, 2014 at 02:14 PM (#4808737)
1959 Preliminary Ballot:

I use a combination of WAR systems to get an average WAR for each player. I use that number to get a Dan R-style salary estimation. I divide that salary by $1 million and add 3 times the average WAR to that dividend. I use a 20% bonus for catchers and do not credit postseason except as a tiebreaker.

1. Ernie Banks (56.74)
2. Hank Aaron (48.53)
3. Eddie Mathews (45.88)
4. Camilo Pascual (45.81) – AL MMP/MMPitcher
5. Willie Mays (40.83)- tied for my lowest placement of him (1956 also) any year from 1954-1966, inclusive. Wow!
6. Mickey Mantle (34.73)
7. Larry Jackson (34.42) – top NL pitcher
8. Hoyt Wilhelm (33.70) - what if he had stayed a starter after this year?
9. Don Newcombe (33.42)
10. Al Kaline (31.81)

11-15. Boyer, Spahn, Law, Drysdale, F. Robinson.
   24. DL from MN Posted: October 10, 2014 at 11:15 AM (#4812386)
bjhanke - I'll put the 59 ballot thread up next week
   25. DL from MN Posted: October 10, 2014 at 11:24 AM (#4812398)
1959 World Series

The only guy this impacts for me is whether Fox gets the last ballot slot

Player Name G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SB CS E
Nellie Fox 6 24 4 9 3 0 0 0 4 1 .375 .464 .500 .964 0 1 0
Jim Landis 6 24 6 7 0 0 0 1 1 7 .292 .346 .292 .638 1 0 1

Gil Hodges 6 23 2 9 0 1 1 2 1 2 .391 .417 .609 1.025 0 0 0
Wally Moon 6 23 3 6 0 0 1 2 2 2 .261 .320 .391 .711 1 0 0
Charlie Neal 6 27 4 10 2 0 2 6 0 1 .370 .370 .667 1.037 1 0 1

Pitcher Name G GS ERA W L SV CG IP H R ER BB SO WHIP
Roger Craig 2 2 8.68 0 1 0 0 9.1 15 9 9 5 8 2.143
Don Drysdale 1 1 1.29 1 0 0 0 7.0 11 1 1 4 5 2.143

Bob Shaw 2 2 2.57 1 1 0 0 14.0 17 4 4 2 2 1.357
Early Wynn 3 3 5.54 1 1 0 0 13.0 19 9 8 4 10 1.769
   26. neilsen Posted: October 13, 2014 at 09:28 PM (#4816133)
There was quite a pennant race in the National League in 1959. It came down to the last week and the Dodgers,Braves and Giants all had a shot to win.

I have Aaron,Mathews and Mays tightly bunched together so I started looking at how well each player did in the stretch. For September this is how they look by OPS.

Aaron - .859
Mathews - 1.073/11 HR
Mays - 1.254/10 HR

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