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Thursday, September 08, 2011

Most Meritorious Player: 1965 Discussion

In the American League, a long era of Yankee dominance was ended when the Minnesota Twins grabbed the pennant. The race retained its rather one-sided flavour in that Minnesota were clearly the team to beat. After 4 July, they were never out of first place. However, their strongest challenger varied throughout the season. Chicago took the role at first, then Baltimore and Cleveland. Baltimore managed to sustain their challenge for longest, but after a brief run for the top by Detroit, it was actually the White Sox who finished closest to the Twins. The National League race saw a three-way fight down the stretch between Cincinnati, Los Angeles and San Francisco. On 1 September, Cincinnati was in a tie for first place with Los Angeles, and San Francisco but a half game out. Cincinnati ran out of steam at this point, the rest of the month saw a two-way dogfight between the California teams. The Dodgers grabbed first on 28 September, and found themselves the National League champions when the season finally stopped.
  The World Series almost matched the excitement of 1964 as it went to seven games, with Walt Alston’s Dodgers coming from a 0-2 deficit to beat Sam Mele’s Twins.

                        Win
                        Shares        WAR     
Willie Mays               43         11.0
Sandy Koufax              33          8.5
Billy Williams            33          7.4
Tony Oliva                33          6.0
Dick Allen                33          5.9
Zoilo Versalles           32          7.6
Ron Santo                 32          7.6
Jimmy Wynn                31          7.6
Hank Aaron                31          7.0
Juan Marichal             30          9.3
Don Buford                30          7.0
Joe Morgan                30          5.5
Willie McCovey            29          5.7
Johnny Callison           28          5.2
Maury Wills               28          4.7
Rocky Colavito            28          3.6
Jim Bunning               27          8.4
Roberto Clemente          27          6.1
Don Drysdale              27          5.4
Pete Rose                 27          5.1
Bob Gibson                26          7.6
Jimmie Hall               26          5.1
Curt Blefary              26          3.8
Frank Robinson            26          4.5
Ron Fairly                26          3.9
Sam McDowell              25          7.5
Chris Short               24          7.0
Norm Cash                 24          5.3
Jim Maloney               23          8.7
Mel Stottlemyre           23          6.5
Harmon Killebrew          22          4.7

 

 

fra paolo Posted: September 08, 2011 at 02:12 AM | 73 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. bjhanke Posted: September 08, 2011 at 10:42 AM (#3919294)
Oh, boy. Either there's a typo in the header, or I'm going to have to find me some other uberstats, or Jim Maloney is going to make my head explode. - Brock
   2. fra paolo Posted: September 08, 2011 at 12:12 PM (#3919309)
No typo if I understand BB-ref WAR correctly. He's got 8 pitching WAR and 0.7 oWAR and dWAR. Add them together, no?
   3. DL from MN Posted: September 08, 2011 at 01:41 PM (#3919350)
It is fascinating that in the era of Koufax that Marichal was just as good.
   4. DL from MN Posted: September 08, 2011 at 04:10 PM (#3919509)
Should we end the election on 10/5 or 10/12? When is the HoM election scheduled?
   5. fra paolo Posted: September 08, 2011 at 04:33 PM (#3919528)
I would suggest ending the election on 28/9, because this thread was posted late (for which I extend my apologies).
   6. DanG Posted: September 08, 2011 at 08:06 PM (#3919715)
Out of the bullpen in 1965.

Rk           Player WAR ERA+  WHIP    WPA    IP  G GS Age  Tm Lg  W L SV  ERA  OPS
1        Stu Miller 3.7  186 0.997  7.302 119.1 67  0  37 BAL AL 14 7 24 1.89 .558
2           Bob Lee 3.7  177 1.043  4.786 131.1 69  0  27 CAL AL  9 7 23 1.92 .565
3       Bobby Bolin 3.6  131 1.110  1.909 163.0 45 13  26 SFG NL 14 6  2 2.76 .631
4       Frank Linzy 3.3  253 1.212  2.054  81.2 57  0  24 SFG NL  9 3 21 1.43 .623
5      Hoyt Wilhelm 2.9  176 0.833  3.295 144.0 66  0  42 CHW AL  7 7 20 1.81 .502
6         Al McBean 2.8  154 1.342  1.101 114.0 62  1  27 PIT NL  6 6 18 2.29 .664
7     Ted Abernathy 2.8  143 1.240  1.427 136.1 84  0  32 CHC NL  4 6 31 2.57 .606
8    Hal Woodeshick 2.5  165 1.293  0.155  92.0 78  0  32 TOT NL  6 6 18 2.25 .634
9    Ron Perranoski 2.4  146 1.194  2.441 104.2 59  0  29 LAD NL  6 6 17 2.24 .582
10   Lindy McDaniel 2.2  143 1.259 
-0.617 128.2 71  0  29 CHC NL  5 6  2 2.59 .662
11      Billy ODell 2.1  161 1.051  1.654 111.1 62  1  32 MLN NL 10 6 18 2.18 .594
12   Claude Raymond 2.0  115 1.069  0.986  96.1 33  7  28 HOU NL  7 4  5 2.90 .667
13   Steve Hamilton 1.8  246 1.080  0.886  58.1 46  1  29 NYY AL  3 1  5 1.39 .565
14        Ron Kline 1.8  132 1.389 
-0.082  99.1 74  0  33 WSA AL  7 6 29 2.63 .726
15     Eddie Fisher 1.8  133 0.974  5.051 165.1 82  0  28 CHW AL 15 7 24 2.40 .561 
   7. DL from MN Posted: September 08, 2011 at 08:06 PM (#3919716)
10/5 sounds reasonable then. Having the HoM election in the middle of Nov means the least amount of overlap.
   8. DL from MN Posted: September 08, 2011 at 08:09 PM (#3919720)
1965 prelim

1) Willie Mays - and it isn't even close
2) Juan Marichal - and there is a big gap here to #3
3) Sandy Koufax - postseason credit $%@^!$@$%$
4) Ron Santo
5) Henry Aaron
6) Jim Bunning
7) Zoilo Versailles - there's the AL!
8) Jim Maloney
9) Jim Wynn
10) Don Buford - I learned a new player's name!

11-15) Dick Allen, Joe Morgan, Tony Oliva, Billy Williams, Sam McDowell
16-20) Bob Gibson, Pete Rose, Maury Wills, Roberto Clemente, Jim Fregosi
   9. Chris Fluit Posted: September 08, 2011 at 08:17 PM (#3919728)
1965 Prelim

1. Willie Mays, CF
2. Sandy Koufax, P
3. Juan Marichal, P - I know that WAR has them in the opposite order but I like Koufax's 40 extra innings
4. Zoilo Versailes, SS - I originally had McDowell ranked here but then I realized that I was over-valuing AL pitchers compared to position players
5. Ron Santo, 3B
6. Sam McDowell, P
7. Hank Aaron, RF
8. Billy Wililams, RF
9. Don Buford, 2B - a weird year in the AL when Zoilo and Buford are the top two position players
10. Mel Stottlemyre, P

11. Don Drysdale, P - big innings and a big bat (+8 batting runs and a 140 OPS+) almost get Donald onto the ballot
12. Dick Allen, 3B
13. Joe Torre, C - if Torre hadn't played a third of his games at 1B, he would have finished ahead of Allen
14. Tony Oliva, RF
15. Carl Yastrzemski, LF

other notables:
16. Jim Maloney, P
17. Jim Bunning, P - I know that WAR likes the two Jims but Maloney's low innings really hurt him and ERA+ takes some of the air out of Bunning
   10. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: September 08, 2011 at 10:09 PM (#3919821)
Preliminary:

1 Willie Mays

gap

2 Juan Marichal
lesser gap
3 Sandy Koufax
4 Zoilo Versalles
5 Don Buford
6 Sam McDowell
7 Jim Maloney
8 Jim Bunning
9 Hank Aaron
10 Billy Williams
11 Ron Santo
12 Jim Wynn
13 Chris Short
14 Joe Morgan
15 Mel Stottlemyre
16 Tony Oliva
17 Norm Cash
18 Roberto Clemente
19 Bob Gibson
20 Pete Rose


Let's discuss... Chris Short- good SP for 5-7 years, nothing worth writing home about outside that time span, no CY votes but picked up MVP votes in two years, best years by WAR, 7.6, 6.6, 6.3, 5.1 (jack Morris: 5.1, 4.9, 4.8, 4.7).

Don Buford- my earliest recollection was a little blurb in Baseball Digest- Believe it or not, Don Buford has never scored 100 runs
   11. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 09, 2011 at 05:04 PM (#3920294)
Prelim (no post-season credit, but does include an AL downgrade):

1) Willie Mays


2) Sandy Koufax
3) Billy Williams
4) Tony Oliva
5) Juan Marichal
6) Dick Allen
7) Ron Santo
8) Zoilo Versalles
9) Jimmy Wynn
10) Jim Bunning
   12. DanG Posted: September 09, 2011 at 05:23 PM (#3920317)
Leaders in WARP from BPro

1965           WARP1  WARP3
Juan Marichal   11.1   10.3
Willie Mays     10.5   10.4
Sandy Koufax     9.6    8.7
Jim Bunning      9.2    8.5
Jim Maloney      9.2    8.5
Jim Wynn         8.2    8.1
Hank Aaron       8.1    7.9
Maury Wills      7.8    7.8
Ron Santo        7.8    7.6
Bob Gibson       8.0    7.2
Chris Short      7.8    7.0
Mel Stottlemyre  8.3    6.4
Sam McDowell     8.2    6.5
Zoilo Versalles  7.9    6.6
Stu Miller       7.3    6.4
Dick Allen       6.4    6.2
Don Buford       6.9    5.6
Jim Fregosi      6.9    5.5
Vern Law         6.5    5.9
Don Drysdale     6.4    5.6
Billy Williams   6.1    5.9
Roberto Clemente 6.0    5.8
Leo Cardenas     5.9    5.8
Johnny Edwards   5.4    6.0
Johnny Callison  5.8    5.6
Tony Oliva       6.3    4.9 
   13. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 09, 2011 at 05:39 PM (#3920334)
Amended Prelim (no post-season credit, but does include an AL downgrade):

1) Willie Mays


2) Sandy Koufax
3) Billy Williams
4) Tony Oliva
5) Juan Marichal
6) Dick Allen
7) Ron Santo
8) Zoilo Versalles
9) Hank Aaron
10) Stu Miller
   14. lieiam Posted: September 10, 2011 at 02:58 AM (#3920842)
I've just started out making my spreadsheet for 1965 (how's THAT for an exciting Friday night?) and I just have to say that the NL had some real nice pitching years! I'm impressed... and while Mays seems to be a clear #1, I'm not sure yet about which pitcher is the best, though it appears to be Marichal or Koufax.
   15. lieiam Posted: September 12, 2011 at 03:56 AM (#3922310)
And now I've got a quick and dirty estimate of my top 20:

1-willie mays
2-sandy koufax
3-juan marichal
4-jim bunning
5-sam mcdowell
6-ron santo
7-jimmy wynn
8-hank aaron
9-bob gibson
10-billy williams
11-jim maloney
12-dick allen
13-chris short
14-don drysdale
15-tony oliva
16-zoilo versalles
17-don buford
18-mel stottlemyre
19-joe morgan
20-willie mccovey

I still need to "do stuff" to my list, but here's a good starting point...
   16. sunnyday2 Posted: September 12, 2011 at 05:45 PM (#3922733)
Prelim

1. I'm tempted to pick somebody else just for the sake of a debate but it can't be done.

2. Oliva--just for the sake of a debate.
3. Koufax
4. Versalles--called a "fluke" but that does not mean undeserving. A hell of a year. With all due respect, #16? Totally ridiculous unless you think the AL was a minor league that year.
5. B. Williams
6. Aaron
7. Wills
8. Deron Johnson
9. Colavito
10 tie. Santo and/or Marichal

12. Buford
13 tie. Drysdale and/or Pete Rose
15 tie. Eddie Fisher, Frank Robinson or Willie McCovey
   17. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 12, 2011 at 07:41 PM (#3922871)
4. Versalles--called a "fluke" but that does not mean undeserving. A hell of a year. With all due respect, #16? Totally ridiculous unless you think the AL was a minor league that year.


Unless I'm reading his post incorrectly, he hasn't figured out his ballot selections yet.
   18. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: September 12, 2011 at 08:22 PM (#3922904)
4. Versalles--called a "fluke" but that does not mean undeserving. A hell of a year. With all due respect, #16? Totally ridiculous unless you think the AL was a minor league that year.


with all due respect, I had Zoilo at 4 (above) but he bothers me

1: Base running runs per WAR, +7, next best year +2, years 1964/66= -2
2: Fielding runs +17, next best year +11, years 1964/66= -3

You drop Zoilo's 1965 fielding runs to his 1964 through 1966 average and his WAR score loses a full win, make a small league difficulty adjustment and it's not hard seeing him between 12-18 rather than top 5.
   19. lieiam Posted: September 12, 2011 at 11:02 PM (#3923009)
Yes (in response to post 17) you are correct... I haven't figured out my ballot yet.
His placement at #16 (in response to post 16) is just what a stupidly quick look at the various numbers put him.
I haven't done more than that so I can't say for sure he'll move up... but if he doesn't I'll try and remember to give an explanation as to why not. [mind you, that list was completely without a league adjustment].
Anyway, things will certainly be changing on my list!
   20. DL from MN Posted: September 13, 2011 at 01:43 PM (#3923266)
The consensus from everything that I've heard following the Twins was that Zoilo really did put it all together in 1965. It isn't a statistical calculating fluke, it is an example of a player briefly playing at his highest level in all aspects of the game.
   21. sunnyday2 Posted: September 14, 2011 at 04:20 PM (#3924731)
You drop Zoilo's 1965 fielding runs to his 1964 through 1966 average and his WAR score loses a full win,


If you're going to substitute this number for that one and that one for this one, then why use WAR at all?
   22. Chris Fluit Posted: September 14, 2011 at 06:18 PM (#3924907)
It happens. Sometimes a player has that single great season where everything goes right. The fact that they weren't able to duplicate it in another season shouldn't be held against them. That doesn't mean we should vote Zoilo first for this year (the Say Hey Kid was clearly better). But it also doesn't mean we have to look for excuses to not vote for him in our top ten or top five.

And, on a related topic, it also doesn't mean we have to look for some nefarious explanation. Guys had freaky single seasons long before the introduction of steroids.
   23. Fred Lynn Nolan Ryan Sweeney Agonistes Posted: September 14, 2011 at 06:26 PM (#3924925)
Versalles is listed at 5'10" and 146 pounds. Can that be right?
Also, I can totally see his MVP there - SS playing at a GG level (he tops the league in TZ runs that year, too), leads the league in total bases, has a very good September and his team wins the pennant.
   24. lieiam Posted: September 14, 2011 at 09:25 PM (#3925254)
With all this discussion about Versalles I thought it was time to start getting my ballot close to what its final form will be (as opposed to my "quick and dirty" version in post 15 that had him 16th) and also to see where he ranks in each of the 7 uber stats that I use. Anyway, with my "still not quite there but much closer" ballot Versalles comes in 10th.

Which leads me to the next step of where he actually finishes in each of the systems I use... and here it is from best to worst:
fangraphs WAR= 4th (in a 2 way tie) [and this is without any pitchers]
dan r WARP1= 5th [again, no pitchers ranked, at least yet]
baseball reference WAR= 6th (in a 4 way tie) [this system and the ones below all include pitchers]
win shares= 7th (in a 2 way tie)
baseball prospectus WARP1= 11th
WSAB= 16th
baseball gauge WAR= 17th (2 way tie)

Oh, and the win shares and WSAB I'm using both come from the baseball gauge... in the win shares list at the top of this thread Versalles is 6th (in a 2 way tie).
   25. DL from MN Posted: September 14, 2011 at 10:21 PM (#3925286)
I'm not sure how you can penalize Marichal for not pitching as many innings as Koufax. He started 37 games and completed 24 of them with a league leading 10 shutouts. Koufax started 41 and completed 27 with 8 shutouts. The reason Marichal pitched fewer innings is mostly because he was suspended. Of course then Koufax went and pitched 24 more innings in the World Series.

To summarize - I can see ballots where Marichal and Koufax are close and Koufax is slightly ahead. I don't understand Sunnyday with Marichal 10th and Koufax 3rd.
   26. DL from MN Posted: September 14, 2011 at 10:39 PM (#3925297)
PS - How is it that Marichal v. Roseboro hasn't been discussed at all?
   27. DanG Posted: September 14, 2011 at 11:42 PM (#3925339)
The Sporting News all-star teams voted on after the season

-AL-
1b - Fred Whitfield
2b - Bobby Richardson
ss - Zoilo Versalles
3b - Brooks Robinson
of - Carl Yastrzemski
of - Jimmie Hall
of - Tony Oliva
c - Earl Battey
p - Jim Grant
p - Mel Stottlemyre

-NL-
1b - Willie McCovey
2b - Pete Rose
ss - Maury Wills
3b - Deron Johnson
of - Willie Stargell
of - Willie Mays
of - Hank Aaron
c - Joe Torre
p - Sandy Koufax
p - Juan Marichal
   28. Rob_Wood Posted: September 15, 2011 at 12:00 AM (#3925349)
My prelim 1965 ballot:

1. Willie Mays -- my all-time favorite player; led NL in SLG (by 85 pts), OBA, HR (52), WPA/LI
gap
2. Sandy Koufax -- post-season credit separates him; led NL in IP, ERA, W, SO (382), and CG
gap
3. Billy Williams -- led NL in WPA (meaning that his stats led to actual wins)
4. Jimmy Wynn
5. Ron Santo
6. Juan Marichal -- missed nine games (two starts) after being suspended for Roseboro incident
7. Zoilo Versalles -- deserved AL MVP (this low partly due to weaker league)
8. Hank Aaron
9. Willie McCovey
10. Tony Oliva

11. Sam McDowell -- led AL in ERA, ERA+, and SO (325)
12. Dick Allen
13. Don Buford
14. Pete Rose
15. Jim Bunning
16. Rocky Colavito
17. Johnny Callison
18. Joe Morgan
19. Carl Yastrzemski -- missed around 30 games
20. Roberto Clemente

21. Mel Stottlemyre
22. Frank Robinson
23. Jim Maloney
24. Norm Cash
25. Chris Short
26. Jimmie Hall
27. Brooks Robinson
28. Maury Wills
29. Harmon Killebrew -- missed around 50 games
30. Bob Gibson
   29. Mike Emeigh Posted: September 15, 2011 at 12:58 AM (#3925372)
After the Marichal/Roseboro incident, Marichal was suspended for nine games, plus he was barred from attending the Dodgers/Giants series in LA in early September. The Giants were 3-6 (with a tie) while Marichal was out, lost the game in which he returned, and then reeled off a 14-game winning streak (including both games of the LA series) which moved them from two games behind to four games ahead with two weeks left in the season. When that streak ended, however, the Dodgers were themselves in the middle of a 13-game winning streak which catapulted them back into the lead.

Marichal didn't pitch particularly well down the stretch after his return; he was 3-4 with a no-decision and a 3.67 ERA in his last eight starts. But the Giants had the pennant in their hands with two weeks to go, and it was essentially a team collapse at the same time the Dodgers were getting hot that did them in. I doubt that the affair cost the Giants much, looking at where Marichal likely would have been spotted; he'd have probably missed the Dodgers in LA anyway.

-- MWE
   30. Rob_Wood Posted: September 15, 2011 at 02:47 AM (#3925469)
In contrast to Marichal's end-of-season slowdown, Koufax pitched great at the end of the season. In his last 5 starts (from mid-September on), Koufax went 4-0 with 3 shutouts and 4 complete games, with games of 12, 13, and 13 strikeouts in his final three starts to set the modern ML single season strikeout record at 382.

Koufax then went on to star in the World Series against the Twins. I imagine that everybody remembers (or has heard about) his famous decision to sit out Game One due to it falling on Yom Kippur. After Drysdale lost Game 1, Koufax lost Game 2 though he pitched well (one earned run and nine strikeouts). Koufax came back to shutout the Twins (striking out 10) in Game 5 giving the Dodgers a 3-2 lead in the Series. After Osteen lost Game 6, Alston decided to start Koufax on two days' rest rather than Drysdale on three days' rest for Game 7. Koufax shutout the Twins in Game 7 (again striking out 10) relying almost exclusively on his fast ball.

I am a big Juan Marichal fan, the 1960's Giants being my favorite team. But I am definitely comfortable saying that Koufax was the "more meritorious" pitcher in 1965, especially if one gives credit for post-season play (which I do).
   31. Rob_Wood Posted: September 15, 2011 at 05:01 AM (#3925526)
Re: DanG's Sporting News All-Star teams, does anybody know who votes for these? Is it players, managers, sportswriters??

I was initially shocked to see Deron Johnson as the NL 3B All-Star over Ron Santo (and Dick Allen), but then I remembered that Deron led the league with 130 RBI. He finished 4th in MVP balloting, behind Mays (yes), Koufax (yes), and Wills (wtf).
   32. DanG Posted: September 15, 2011 at 06:11 AM (#3925540)
--A balloting of BBWAA writers determines the postseason TSN all-stars.
--1965 was Wills' other big SB year with 94, his 6th and final SB crown.
--Fred Whitfield was my wtf moment on that list.
   33. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 15, 2011 at 11:45 AM (#3925573)
--Fred Whitfield was my wtf moment on that list.


His BA was much higher than Cash's or Killebrew's. 'Nuff said.
   34. sunnyday2 Posted: September 15, 2011 at 01:39 PM (#3925629)
I don't understand Sunnyday with Marichal 10th and Koufax 3rd.


Well, this is a prelim.... But also thx to Rob and Mike for a darn good rationale (or rationalization, as you prefer).

Also, one of my inputs on my prelim ballot is the actual MVP vote. Yeah, I know. But, anyway, Koufax was #2 and Marichal was nowhere. And as it happens, Koufax is #3 (tied) on WS and Marichal is, er, #10. The real question is how anyone can take seriously Marichal's lead over Koufax on WAR.
   35. DL from MN Posted: September 15, 2011 at 03:51 PM (#3925802)
I can see how someone would place Koufax ahead of Marichal - I stated that. I can't see anyone using Marichal's IP total against him as if he was less durable.
   36. lieiam Posted: September 15, 2011 at 03:57 PM (#3925814)
Re: Koufax and Marichal-
To me, they are clearly 2nd and 3rd (I have Koufax 2nd but it's close).
Koufax is ahead in win shares, WSAB, and bgWAR.
Marichal is ahead in brWAR, and bpWARP1.
Koufax is actually 1st overall in bgWAR and Marichal is 1st overall in bpWARP1.

I'm quite interested to see what Dan R's updated pitcher ratings would show.
Speaking of which... Dan R, even if you don't get the info from Alex King could you do your updated
pitcher ratings without it? I've got 6 pitchers in my top 14 and it could certainly make a difference!
   37. Rob_Wood Posted: September 15, 2011 at 04:20 PM (#3925856)
Well, as long as we are discussing this, let me ask the following. One reason I have Koufax comfortably ahead of Marichal is the disparity in strikeouts. Do all/some/none of the WAR varietals take into account the pitcher's strikeouts? Maybe that has something to do with the different rankings between Koufax and Marichal.
   38. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 15, 2011 at 06:48 PM (#3926045)
FWIW, I have Koufax above Marichal, but not by much (regular-season stats only).
   39. DL from MN Posted: September 15, 2011 at 06:49 PM (#3926047)
Fangraphs WAR would look at FIP stats but they don't calculate it for 1965. It would be interesting to know how much of the difference is offensive context, defensive support, etc.
   40. lieiam Posted: September 15, 2011 at 09:51 PM (#3926242)
Since Koufax is first overall in baseball gauge WAR I thought I would look up how they get that for pitchers (in response to Rob Wood's question in post 37) to see if strikeouts play a role. And yes indeed they use Defense Independent Pitching Stats.

Here's the quote:

"Pitching WAR
Just as Offensive WAR is based on Base Runs, Pitching WAR is based on Defensive Independent Pitching Stats (DIPS). More specifically, DIPS version 2.0 is used.

Once defensive independent runs are figured, Pitching WAR can be calculated using the same method as in the Offensive WAR section."

Which would certainly help explain why Koufax is so high as to top Mays. I'm less sure what is different about baseball prospectus WARP1 to have Marichal higher than Mays.
   41. sunnyday2 Posted: September 15, 2011 at 10:42 PM (#3926276)
Looking at the raw stats, it is difficult to understand how Marichal could lead Koufax in any version of WARP or anything pretending to be an uber-stat. WHIP is .854 to .915, both terrific of course, but not hardly equal. Almost 5 CG worth of extra Ks. Well, I suppose the answer is park adjustments? Is that correct?
   42. OCF Posted: September 16, 2011 at 03:52 AM (#3926669)
sunnyday: I do see how. It's the park adjustment. Using 3-year park factors, Dodger Stadium is 92 and Candlestick 102. In what I'm going to present below, I've got Koufax and Marichal approximately tied. Only here's an oddity: Koufax actually outbatted Marichal that year! OK, it's just a 100 AB fluke, but Koufax wasn't terrible - he even drew 10 walks. It's also the year in which Drysdale and Gibson had 19 RBI each.

Here's what I get by RA+ equivalent record:

AL:

McDowell: 20-10 (bad hitter)
Stottlemyre: 19-13 (neutral hitter)
Miller: 10-3 (with inherited runner adjustment, 14-4)
Wilhelm: 11-5 (with inherited runner adjustment, 13-6)
Lee: 10-4 (with inherited runner adjustment, 13-8)

NL:

Marichal: 24-9 (neutral hitter)
Koufax: 25-12 (OK hitter)
Maloney: 20-9 (good to very good hitter)
Bunning: 21-12 (OK hitter)
Gibson: 21-12 (very good hitter)
Drysdale: 19-15 (great hitter)
Bolin: 12-6 (with inherited runner adjustment, 15-7)
Linzy: 7-2 (with inherited runner adjustment, 11-4)
Abernathy: 9-6 (with inherited runner adjustment, 13-8)
McBean: 9-4 (with inherited runner adjustment, 11-8)

Linzy and McBean were good hitters; that matters somewhat less for relievers.

We're near a high point for quantity of usage for ace starters - look at all the virtual 20 game winners. And we have high levels of usage for top relievers (fireman model?) as well. So pitchers contribute massive individual value and become legitimate MVP contenders.
   43. DanG Posted: September 16, 2011 at 04:40 PM (#3926965)
It's the park adjustment.
Isn't it also their defensive support? Didn't Koufax have better D behind him then Marichal? (Edit: relevant for non-DIPS systems.)
   44. OCF Posted: September 16, 2011 at 06:02 PM (#3927069)
DIPS theory question: Is there any chance that Marichal might be the kind of pitcher that is a little better than his DIPS numbers? That would require a greater than average ability to induce weak contact. I have no idea at the moment whether that would apply to him - but consider the kind of pitcher he was. He threw a large assortment of pitches from multiple arm angles. He hid what he was doing behind a cartoonishly high leg kick. (He chopped the kick short when he came sidearm.) The whole package seems like it might have been particularly likely to mess with batters' timing, and hence likely to catch them in a less-than-optimal swing.

I don't know anything for sure about this - I'm just speculating.
   45. DL from MN Posted: September 16, 2011 at 06:27 PM (#3927101)
WAR analysis

Bad fielders for the 1965 Giants: Jim Davenport, Willie McCovey, Jim Ray Hart
Great fielders 1965 Giants: Mays
Overall Rfield -4

Bad fielders 1965 Dodgers: none
Great fielders 1965 Dodgers: Willie Davis, Maury Wills, Jim Lefebvre
Overall Rfield +60

I do think a system needs to be careful with a defensive adjustment to apply it only to balls in play. Obviously Koufax didn't need his defense to do as much as most pitchers.
   46. OCF Posted: September 17, 2011 at 05:16 PM (#3928087)
Bump to get this back on the sidebar listing of topics.

Maybe we should set up a new thread just for this, but I would like to have one place where we could ask KJOK to give an overview of what he's doing, and to talk about those numbers he's linking to.
   47. Steve Treder Posted: September 17, 2011 at 05:28 PM (#3928091)
Versalles is listed at 5'10" and 146 pounds. Can that be right?

One suspects that's what he weighed as a rookie or even as a minor league prospect, and the guidebooks never updated it. But he was always a skinny little guy; my guess is he never weighed in at more than 160 or 165. That he was able to generate the kind of power he did for several years was truly amazing.

One of the strangest careers in history, for sure, and by all accounts Versalles was a strange guy: painfully shy and introverted, never comfortable in the US, especially not in the media spotlight that captured him in 1965. The common explanation for his devastating collapse in performance following 1965 was that he just withered, mentally and emotionally, from the pressure of trying to sustain that level of play while under intense scrutiny.
   48. Steve Treder Posted: September 17, 2011 at 05:32 PM (#3928092)
DIPS theory question: Is there any chance that Marichal might be the kind of pitcher that is a little better than his DIPS numbers? That would require a greater than average ability to induce weak contact. I have no idea at the moment whether that would apply to him - but consider the kind of pitcher he was. He threw a large assortment of pitches from multiple arm angles. He hid what he was doing behind a cartoonishly high leg kick. (He chopped the kick short when he came sidearm.) The whole package seems like it might have been particularly likely to mess with batters' timing, and hence likely to catch them in a less-than-optimal swing.

I don't know anything for sure about this - I'm just speculating.


That is interesting. If there's something to it, then it might also be true of other pitchers who employed particularly elaborately distracting windups/deliveries, and offerred up the kitchen sink in pitch repertoire: guys such as Luis Tiant, Stu Miller, and Murry Dickson.
   49. lieiam Posted: September 18, 2011 at 06:16 PM (#3928824)
I'm finally going to bite (re: Tony Oliva being listed 2nd on Sunnyday2's prelim ballot on post 16)... Why so high?
I have him sitting in 15th place right now. Looks like he's 3rd amongst right fielders (behind Aaron and Williams) on my ballot.
I see that Win Shares (& Win Shares Above Bench) like his season a lot, while the various WAR & WARP systems aren't as fond of him. So... what are you seeing in Oliva's season that I'm not?
   50. DL from MN Posted: September 19, 2011 at 03:14 PM (#3929453)
I think there is a "Negro Leaguers" thread we could dredge up. Thanks for bumping this thread.
   51. sunnyday2 Posted: September 21, 2011 at 03:28 AM (#3931636)
Who knows how to get the 1964 results and 1964 ballot back on Hot Topics? I wonder if we're really done with them.

As to Oliva:

1) I'm not much of a WAR/WARP guy. There are so many different versions with such vastly different results, I can only conclude that a) they can't all be right, b) maybe 1 of them is right but I don't know which one, and c) it's possible they're all wrong. So, yes, I look at BBRef WARP and then promptly forget what I saw.

2) In the absence of a credible WAR/WARP resource, I tend to fall back on WS on which, as you all know, Oliva is tied for 2nd.

3) The fly in the ointment for Oliva is that I know for an absolute fact that Versalles was better and more valuable and more meritorious and more of anything and everything you want to talk about. Neither WS nor BBR WARP wins any awards for being oblivious to this fact but more to the current point, Versalles has to be ahead whether they are 2 and 3, or 15 and 16. (I saw the 1965 Twins play probably 30-40-50 times.)

4) Ah, the cat's out of the bag. All the old-timers around here know I am a Twins fan. Well, the '65 Twins were very much for real, as games 1 and 2 and 6 of the World Series demonstrated. There was serious talent on that team. Along with Versalles and Oliva, I noticed that Jimmie Hall made the SN all-star team. Hall was a helluva talent until he got hit in the face, and it has always bugged me that he had 7 AB and Joe Nossek 20 in the World Series. Grant and Kaat were a big-time 1-2 punch on the mound. And so on. Versalles and Oliva were merely the 2 best among a very solid roster. The objective of a baseball season is to win a pennant and they did that in 1965 with performances that were the equal of anybody in the AL. For that they are certainly top 10 and maybe top 5 talents. #2? Can't say for sure. Will let you know on my final ballot.
   52. DL from MN Posted: September 21, 2011 at 03:00 PM (#3931863)
sunnyday - you didn't even mention Killebrew, Battey or Allison.
   53. DL from MN Posted: September 21, 2011 at 03:03 PM (#3931866)
Any minor league / rookie phenoms this year?
   54. lieiam Posted: September 21, 2011 at 04:48 PM (#3931956)
@sunnyday2: Thanks for the Tony Oliva explanation.

Granted there are a variety of WARs and WARPs and each is a bit different... but none of the 5 I'm using were as fond of Oliva as Win Shares and WSA; I don't think any of them have him in the top ten (which isn't to say that makes them right). Anyway, your Oliva explanation (re: Win Shares) pretty much explains Maury Wills and Rocky Colavito being on your prelim... I'm confused by Deron Johnson (sorry, but now I'm looking more closely) because he isn't rated particularly well by Win Shares (or any of the WAR(P)s). [Looks like I currently have him 5th among third baseman, behind Santo, Allen, Robinson, and Mathews. He's close to Robinson and Mathews and closely followed by Jim Ray Hart, but I've got him quite a bit below Santo and Allen].

Anyway, thanks and my sympathies for the Twins 2011 season!
   55. Al Peterson Posted: September 21, 2011 at 07:47 PM (#3932132)
1965 Prelim ballot. I’m having a hard time placing AL players high in the rankings. The league had some of its star hitters who balloted in earlier MMP years play less than full seasons (Mantle, Yaz, Kaline, Killebrew).

1. Willie Mays
2. Sandy Koufax
3. Juan Marichal
4. Billy Williams
5. Jimmy Wynn
6. Sam McDowell – for going 17-11 this was quite a season. 1st in ERA+, 2nd in IP, most strikeouts by a total of 99.
7. Ron Santo
8. Hank Aaron
9. Jim Bunning
10. Zoilo Versalles
11. Jim Maloney
12. Dick Allen
13. Chris Short
14. Joe Morgan
15. Don Buford
16. Willie McCovey
17. Johnny Callison
18. Tony Oliva
19. Pete Rose
20. Norm Cash
   56. sunnyday2 Posted: September 22, 2011 at 03:46 PM (#3933107)
Well, I mentioned Versalles and Oliva because you have to. I mentioned Hall because he made the SN all-star team and because he is not well-remembered today. For his career he's just a 100 WS guy but went 21-19-26, then got hit in the face by a pitch in 1966 and was never the same.

Killebrew was hurt for 1/3 of the 1965 season though his 25-75-.269/.501 SA woulda been a decent year in 162 games for a lot of guys. He was back for the World Series and went 6-for-21 (.286) with a HR and 2 RBI, and poked a solid single through the left side of the IF off of Koufax with (I think) 1 out in the bottom of the 9th in game 7 to give the Twins one last hope.

Versalles went 8-for-28 (.286) in the WS with 1 HR and 4 RBI, btw. He was solid.

In addition to Killebrew, I didn't mention Battey and Allison (and a bunch of other people). Battey was the best C in the AL at 6-60-.297, though he was 30 by now and in decline. In '63 he went 26-84-.285 though he was slow as in Ernie Lombardi slow. Allison was also in decline by '65 also at age 30. In '63 he led the league in runs scored with 98. In '64 he moved to 1B and was hitting about .340 after the all-star break but ended up at .287. In '65 he took up where he had left off the second half of '64, hitting just .233. He hit .220 off the bench in '66, then .258 in one last hurrah as a regular in '67 (then .247 in '68 and .228 in '69).

The other really forgotten guy off of this team was Rich Rollins,and in his case with reason.He was also into decline at age 27: 5 HR 32 RBI and .249 in 149 games! Slugged .333. In '64 he had gone 12-68-.270 with 87 runs scored and 16-61-.307 in '63. Mincher started at 1B and Killebrew at 3B in the WS and Rollins just PH 3 times, going 0-for-2. Similarly, as mentioned above, Joe Nossek started 5 WS games and got 20 AB, Hall started just 2 with 7 AB. The 2 had not platooned per se during the year as Hall got 522 AB and Nossek 170 (hitting .219). Obviously Koufax and Osteen had something to do with the Twins personnel decisions in CF, but OTOH they went with the lefty at 1B instead of the rightly (Rollins) at 3B. Defensively it would obviously have been advantageous to put Killebrew at 1B and Rollins at 3B.

And then there's Al Worthington, another forgotten man, but an effective "fireman" who went 10-7, 2.25 in 56 G and 76 IP. He threw 4 ShO IP in 2 WS games, and Johnny Klippstein (9-3, 2.25 during the regular season) went 2 2/3 in 2 appearances in the WS, also allowed 0 runs. The Twins had some outstanding bullpens in the '60s led by Ray Moore in '61 and '62, (Won't You Come Home) Bill Dailey in '63 (6-3, 1.98, 21 SV), then Worthington in '64 through '68, and Perranoski in '69. Worthington was much better than you think based on the fact that you've never heard of him. He had 51K in 46 IP at the age of 40 as late as 1969.

DL, have I forgotton anyone? ;-) And lielam, sympathies accepted. It happens. What kinda hurts is this Minnesota tradition of truly awesome players breaking down young--Oliva, Puckett, now Morneau. There is scant optimism that Morneau can really make it all the way back, even if the symptoms go away, now that he's been virtually inactive for well over a year. Or worse, that the symptoms continue and he's basically done already.
   57. DanG Posted: September 22, 2011 at 08:11 PM (#3933330)
The Twins had a great run from 1962-70 but hoisted only one pennant. Rather similar to the Giants during that time, I think: always having a lot of talent but never quite able to configure it into a championship team.

As for Morneau, it's hard to see him ever again being the player he was in the first half of 2010. But is it really far-fetched to see him returning to be a 4 WAR, 130 OPS+ guy again?
   58. DL from MN Posted: September 22, 2011 at 09:23 PM (#3933391)
It isn't the rate stats I'm worried about with Morneau, it's the playing time.
   59. sunnyday2 Posted: September 23, 2011 at 01:48 AM (#3933709)
I would advise worrying about Morneau's rates until it is proven that there's no long-term effect, whether from the concussions themselves or from the lost time. Who has ever really come back from 1.5 years lost time? I mean, I realize it hasn't been 100 percent lost, but still, you get the idea.
   60. DL from MN Posted: September 26, 2011 at 03:23 PM (#3937308)
We should start balloting this week.
   61. Mike Emeigh Posted: September 26, 2011 at 03:38 PM (#3937322)
Worthington was much better than you think based on the fact that you've never heard of him.


He's one of 2 NL pitchers to have thrown shutouts in his first two career starts, the other being Karl Spooner. Of course, he also had a complete game later that same year in which he walked 11.

Worthington had kind of a weird career. He was a decent starter early for the Giants, but got a rep as a guy who couldn't win and got moved to the pen, where he had a couple of good years in middle-to-low leverage roles. The Giants dumped him for Jim Marshall in 1960, and he went from Boston to the White Sox to the minors before Cincy resurrected his career as a Rule 5 pick in 1963. The Twins bought him early in 1964 and he was their closer for the next five years. He looks like a guy who took advantage of the changes in the strike zone; he walked a lot of guys early in his career but his walk rate really dropped when he came back.

-- MWE
   62. Mike Emeigh Posted: September 26, 2011 at 03:40 PM (#3937326)
The Twins had a great run from 1962-70 but hoisted only one pennant. Rather similar to the Giants during that time, I think: always having a lot of talent but never quite able to configure it into a championship team.


Chris Jaffe makes a pretty good argument that Sam Mele was one of the worst managers ever.

-- MWE
   63. DL from MN Posted: September 26, 2011 at 04:47 PM (#3937408)
> The Twins had a great run from 1962-70 but hoisted only one pennant. Rather similar to the Giants during that time

I would say similar to Milwaukee. The Braves probably had more talent and less to show for it.
   64. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 26, 2011 at 05:48 PM (#3937493)
We should start balloting this week.


Do we have a day and approximate time scheduled?
   65. DL from MN Posted: September 26, 2011 at 07:16 PM (#3937608)
I'd like to end next Wednesday. That means we should start by this Wednesday.
   66. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 26, 2011 at 07:36 PM (#3937637)
Thanks, Dan!
   67. DanG Posted: September 27, 2011 at 02:43 PM (#3938924)
Any minor league / rookie phenoms this year?
I looked it over, nothing much to see this year. Tommy Helms preceded his ROY next year with a .319 BA at AAA and a solid showing in September.

The most interesting thing I found out was a trade I never knew about. Long-time Giant's farmhand Bill Hands finally put it all together and had a really fine year at AAA (17-6, 2.19). After the season they traded him and Randy Hundley to the Cubs for a couple of veteran bench players. I suppose this trade is representative of the Giants' evaluation of young talent in that era.
   68. Mike Emeigh Posted: September 27, 2011 at 04:05 PM (#3939051)
Koufax/Marichal:

I have to think that the main reason there is such a big difference in WAR is the park effect. Dodger, of course was an extreme pitchers' park; Candlestick was playing as a hitters' park in that era.

To take some of the home/road differential out of it, I looked at games that both pitchers started in parks other than their own home park or the other team's home park. Koufax started 18 games in parks other than Dodger or Candlestick, Marichal 16. Their run support patterns in those starts were not substantially different; Marichal got more runs per start, but also was going slightly deeper into those games than Koufax, so Koufax actually got more runs per 27 batting outs. LA's expected winning percentage in Koufax's starts, based on what a typical road team did with those runs, was .493, SF's was .468. The Dodgers actually went 14-4 (Koufax 11-3), while the Giants went 11-5 (all the decisions were Marichal's).

When I look at how they did in starts at home (Koufax 20, Marichal 19), the park difference is stark. Marichal got 4.13 runs per 27 batting outs at home (expected WP .520), Koufax 3.36 (expected WP .446). Marichal was 9-7 at home as a starter, and the team was 12-7; Koufax was 14-3 and the Dodgers were 15-5.

This is a (very) crude method of evaluating how pitchers leveraged their run support, and I know it has to account for the park context. Certainly I accept that Koufax's run support was better than it appears given the park context (likely by quite a bit), and Marichal's was worse. My initial cut at accounting for park, however, still suggests that Koufax did a better job of leveraging run support into wins than did Marichal, more so than the ERA difference between them would suggest. In the context of value, I think that matters.

-- MWE
   69. Rob_Wood Posted: September 28, 2011 at 03:02 AM (#3940539)
Thanks Mike for the information. I totally agree. If one looks at the game logs of both pitchers, I think you'll see that Koufax had a slightly better season than Marichal. And then when you factor in his significant strikeout advantage (one of the best strikeout seasons of the 20th century), Koufax edges out in front even more.
   70. Mike Emeigh Posted: September 28, 2011 at 07:51 PM (#3941404)
In "Raceball", Rob Rusk devotes a lot of space to the Giants/Latino connection - in the early 60s the Giants had all 3 Alou brothers, Cepeda, Marichal, and Jose Pagan, and they had formed a pretty tight bond dating back to their days on the island. The Giants had a lot of other young Latino players in the organization, but by 1968 most of them were gone - and it was as much a matter of Caribbean politics as it was of on-field issues.

Felipe Alou was suspended early in spring training in 1963 for refusing to pay a fine levied by then-commissioner Ford Frick resulting from Alou's decision to play winter ball in the Caribbean against the Cubans (this was right after the Cuban missile crisis). Alou was widely quoted as saying he played because it would have been a "slap in the face" against his countrymen not to play - there was still a lot of political unrest in the Dominican following the overthrow of dictator Rafael Trujillo in 1961. Alou's response was to ask for the Commissioner to add someone to his staff to handle Latin-American issues, and in the November 1963 issue of Sport magazine he wrote an article in which he suggested that the time had come for a Latin-American Bill of Rights for baseball. The Giants traded Alou to the Braves within months after the article came out, and after the Dark incident the pace of change accelerated. Jose Cardenal, an up-and-coming young outfielder, was traded to the Angels after the '64 season, Pagan was traded early in 1965, Matty Alou went after the '65 season, Cepeda in early '66. There were several minor deals involving Latin players in that time frame as well (Gil Garrido to the Braves, Hector Torres to the Angels) By '69 the only key contributing Latin players left were Marichal and Tito Fuentes.

The Hands/Hundley trade was for Don Landrum and Lindy McDaniel. McDaniel had been displaced by Ted Abernathy as the Cubs' bullpen ace, and Landrum had gotten in a full season as a regular in 1965 (albeit a not very good one). The deal was made one day after the Matty Alou trade with the Pirates; the expectation was that Landrum would take over Alou's role and that McDaniel would back Frank Linzy. I don't remember if they already knew by this time that Murakami wasn't coming back (probably) but their two major trades that offseason were both primarily to bolster the second-line pitching - the Alou trade netted Joe Gibbon, who had become a swingman for the Pirates.

-- MWE
   71. lieiam Posted: September 28, 2011 at 10:23 PM (#3941610)
Dan R., can you do your updated pitcher ratings for this year?
My ballot is pretty much all done except for that...
   72. bjhanke Posted: October 04, 2011 at 02:08 AM (#3950185)
Well, here's a really quick and dirty prelim, because I've essentially lost 2 weeks to a brutal cold that is currently ravaging all of St. Louis. I hope nobody here gets this. You do not want it. I don't know how much this will change before the final, because I only have two days left. - Brock Hanke

Willie Mays
Sandy Koufax
Billy Williams
Juan Marichal
Zoilo Versalles
Ron Santo
Tony Oliva
Dick Allen
Jimmy Wynn
Hank Aaron
   73. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 04, 2011 at 07:15 PM (#3950881)
Well, here's a really quick and dirty prelim, because I've essentially lost 2 weeks to a brutal cold that is currently ravaging all of St. Louis. I hope nobody here gets this.


As long as it's not communicable over the Internet, I think I'm safe here in NC. :-)

Seriously, hope you're feeling better, Brock.

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