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Monday, January 16, 2012

Most Meritorious Player: 1968 Ballot

Here are the specific rules for this election:
Candidate Eligibility: Any North American professional baseball player is eligible for the Most Meritorious Player (MMP) award including players in the top Negro Leagues or independent teams. Voters should consider the player’s on-field contribution to Major League Baseball (MLB) team(s) in that season only. If part of the season was spent outside MLB, that value may be considered as well. However, the player’s on-field contribution should be judged in relation to the highest level major league, not relative to a minor league. A season may include playoff or World Series games but does not include spring training or exhibition games. No credit will be given for games not played due to injury, wartime service or contract holdouts.
Ballot Length: For 1968, each voter should rank 10 players.
Voter eligibility: All voters who did not vote in the previous year’s election must post a preliminary ballot in the ballot discussion thread at least 2 days before voting ends. All voters must fill out a complete ballot. Voters must briefly explain their ballot choices. One person, one vote; anyone determined to have voted with multiple accounts will be banned and their votes will be disallowed. The MMP ballot committee has authority to exclude any ballot that does not meet these requirements.
Scoring: Points will be given in descending order with the highest-ranked player receiving 15 points, the second highest 14 points, and so on until the last player on the ballot receives 6 points. The player with the highest point total will be named the MMP for 1968. In case of a tie, the tiebreaker will be number of 1st place votes. If the first tiebreaker does not determine a winner the players will share the title of Most Meritorious Player.

Balloting will close at 4pm EST on 25 January 2012.

Anyone can vote, even if you haven’t said a word yet in any of the MMP threads. If you missed the last election, just post a preliminary ballot in the discussion thread by 23 January 2012..

fra paolo Posted: January 16, 2012 at 09:40 PM | 20 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. DL from MN Posted: January 17, 2012 at 02:41 PM (#4038701)
hot topics
   2. DL from MN Posted: January 17, 2012 at 02:51 PM (#4038714)
1) Bob Gibson - Pitching seasons don't get much better than this
2) Carl Yastrzemski - Huge offensive advantage on everyone
3) Bill Freehan - catcher bonus helps boost him just above the others, no postseason credit
4) Bert Campaneris - Dan R data loves him this year. Good fielding and baserunning plus a dreadful SS cohort
5) Henry Aaron
6) Pete Rose
7) Denny McLain - lower than I expected, was helped by his defenses, hard for pitchers to stand out when so many are doing so well, very small postseason credit despite pitching 3 games
8) Willie Mays
9) Willie McCovey
10) Luis Tiant

11-15) Jim Wynn, Don Buford, Roberto Clemente, Dick McAuliffe, Ron Santo
16-20) Dave McNally, Willie Horton, Reggie Jackson, Frank Howard, Brooks Robinson
   3. Chris Fluit Posted: January 17, 2012 at 04:10 PM (#4038820)
1968 Ballot

1. Bob Gibson, P, St. Louis Cardinals- 258 ERA+ in 304 innings. That has to be a type-o, right?

2. Carl Yastrzemski, LF, Boston Red Sox- 170 OPS+, 121 runs created, +25 fielding runs.

3. Denny McLain, P, Detroit Tigers- I always thought McLain was overrated because of his 31-win campaign. It sounded fluky to me. But, McLain had a great year. The 154 ERA+ is nice. The 336 innings are even nicer.

4. Luis Tiant, P, Cleveland Indians

5. Bill Freehan, C, Detroit Tigers- From previous elections, I don't think I use as big a catcher bonus as others but it's still enough to make Freehan the second highest position player this year.

6. Sam McDowell, P, Cleveland Indians

7. Willie McCovey, 1B, San Francisco Giants

8. Dave McNally, P, Baltimore Orioles

9. Hank Aaron, RF, Atlanta Braves

10. Fergie Jenkins, P, Chicago Cubs- it's the year of the pitcher, all right. Jenkins is the 6th pitcher to make my top ten.

The next five:
11. Tom Seaver, P, New York Mets
12. Frank Howard, LF, Texas Rangers
13. Jerry Koosman, P, New York Mets
14. Pete Rose, RF, Cincinnati Reds
15. Willie Mays, CF, San Francisco Giants
   4. lieiam Posted: January 20, 2012 at 12:43 AM (#4040908)
Here's my top 20, weighing in 7 different uber-stats. I give a 10% catcher bonus and no postseason bonus:
1 bob gibson 9665
2 carl yastrzemski8850
3 bill freehan 7934
4 denny mclain 7442
5 hank aaron 7129
6 willie mccovey 7091
7 luis tiant 6905
8 willie mays 6782
9 frank howard 6741
10 jimmy wynn 6575


11 bert campaneris 6436
12 pete rose 6371
13 ferguson jenkins6085
14 roberto clemente6058
15 felipe alou 5963
16 dave mcnally 5908
17 tom haller 5821
18 tom seaver 5764
19 dick allen 5748
20 willie horton 5635
   5. OCF Posted: January 20, 2012 at 02:57 AM (#4040946)
1. Bob Gibson

- gap -

2. Carl Yastrzemski
3. Denny McLain
4. Luis Tiant
5. Bill Freehan
6. Willie McCovey
7. Willie Mays
8. Frank Howard
9. Jimmy Wynn
10. Tom Seaver

Also considered: Dick McAuliffe, Pete Rose, Hank Aaron, Billy Williams, Bert Campaneris, Wilbur Wood, Fergie Jenkins, Jerry Koosman
   6. Rob_Wood Posted: January 20, 2012 at 11:04 PM (#4041722)
My 1968 MMP ballot:

1. Bob Gibson
2. Carl Yastrzemski
3. Willie McCovey
4. Denny McLain
5. Luis Tiant
6. Tom Seaver
7. Willie Mays
8. Jimmy Wynn
9. Jerry Koosman
10. Frank Howard

11. Bill Freehan
12. Hank Aaron
13. Ferguson Jenkins
14. Roberto Clemente
15. Willie Horton
16. Juan Marichal
17. Ken Harrelson
18. Bert Campaneris
19. Dick Allen
20. Billy Williams

21. Jim Northrup
22. Brooks Robinson
23. Gaylord Perry
24. Pete Rose
25. Felipe Alou
26. Dick McAuliffe
27. Stan Bahnsen
28. Reggie Jackson
29. Don Buford
30. Don Drysdale

My voting reflects my belief that in an extreme low-scoring environment, home runs and slugging are magnified in importance. Empty batting averages (and to some extent OBA) are less valuable in such an environment. Also NL is still the better league.
   7. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: January 23, 2012 at 03:13 PM (#4043403)
Official ballot (No post-season bonus and a 6% demerit for AL players):

1) Bob Gibson - Pitchers from this season have been overrated for years based on ERA and innings pitched, but Bob's was epic under any conditions. IMO, the best ML player that year.
2) Carl Yastrzemski - I have Yaz as being very close to being #1 himself, but he'll have to live with only being the best AL player of '68.
3) Frank Howard - Another guy who had a season good enough to be considered the best in the majors, but a detailed examination of his numbers place him at #3 instead. BTW, I miss him as a Mets coach.
4) Willie McCovey - A notch below the fellows above, but still a stellar season. Best ML first baseman.
5) Pete Rose - Best ML right fielder of 1968.
6) Bill Freehan - Best ML catcher of '68.
7) Denny McLain - Quality pitching from this man, but his durability is really what separates him from the crowd.
8) Jim Wynn - Best ML center fielder.
9) Willie Mays - Slowing up a little, but how many players his age can still be considered a MMP candidate?
10) Luis Tiant - I believe it's the first time I have had three pitchers on my MMP ballot. Again, the pitching that year has been grossly overrated by some since I was still in my crib, but there was indeed some quality hurling going on that year.
   8. bjhanke Posted: January 24, 2012 at 08:28 AM (#4043950)
Here's Brock Hanke's official ballot. I don't have much in the way of notes this time, so I didn't make a separate list just for tabulating.

1. Bob Gibson (WS bonus, which I think he may need to beat out Yaz)
2. Carl Yaztrzemski
3. Bill Freehan (Last year, I said I remembered being blown away by seeing Freehan's defense. Given the state of baseball TV at the time, I may have seen more of Freehan in the '68 WS than I did in all the rest of his career. I lived in STL, where AL games were rare to see. Domination of position bonus, but I don't think he needs it)
4. Willie McCovey (About here, the various uberstats start to diverge. Stretch here is about the last with a top end consensus)
5. Frank Howard (HUGE difference in uberstat rankings)
6. Denny McLain
7. Willie Mays
8. Bert Campaneris (Domination of position bonus)
9. Luis Tiant
10. Lou Brock (WS bonus beats out The Toy Cannon's better glove)
   9. Rick A. Posted: January 24, 2012 at 09:40 PM (#4045029)
1968 MMP Ballot

I use a combination of WSAB, bWAR, OPS+, ERA+, IP, PA, LI for relievers and a small catcher's bonus. I do not give a postseason credit.
1. Bob Gibson
2. Carl Yastrzemski
3. Denny McLain
4. Luis Tiant
5. Willie McCovey
6. Bill Freehan
7. Frank Howard
8. Juan Marichal
9. Jim Wynn
10. Pete Rose

11. Hank Aaron
12. Tom Seaver
13. Fergie Jenkins
14. Bert Campaneris
15. Brooks Robinson
   10. DL from MN Posted: January 25, 2012 at 11:09 AM (#4045374)
8 ballots is not enough. If we don't have 12 ballots by the close today I'll extend until Friday. If we have 12 ballots we'll wrap it up.

Voted previously, have not voted yet
sunnyday
Johnny Fora
Al Peterson
Alex King
Nate the Neptunian
Esteban Rivera
Dan R
ronw
Yardape
howie menckel
frapaulo
   11. Al Peterson Posted: January 25, 2012 at 04:18 PM (#4045626)
1968 MMP Final ballot. The components to ranking include WAR, WARP, WS, OPS+/ERA+, even a sprinkle of WPA. Catcher bonus in effect along with review of post-season accomplishments. This year I'm going to place a score next to each player which is the ranking mechanism for my ballot. Bob Gibson laps the field - Yaz is a nice alsoran.

1. Bob Gibson - 6.92
2. Carl Yastrzemski - 5.56
3. Denny McLain - 5.07
4. Luis Tiant - 5.03
5. Bill Freehan - 4.69
6. Willie McCovey - 4.63
7. Henry Aaron - 4.57
8. Willie Mays - 4.45
9. Frank Howard - 4.35
10. Tom Seaver - 4.11

11. Fergie Jenkins - 4.05
12. Dave McNally - 4.04
13. Jimmy Wynn - 4.03
14. Bert Campaneris - 3.84
15. Dick Allen - 3.82



   12. fra paolo Posted: January 25, 2012 at 04:57 PM (#4045655)
I had to run an unexpected errand, so I can only vote if there's an extension.
   13. DL from MN Posted: January 25, 2012 at 05:00 PM (#4045659)
We're extending to Friday, same time.
   14. sunnyday2 Posted: January 25, 2012 at 05:31 PM (#4045683)
1968

The top 6 are pretty obvious--not what order they should be in, just that they're the top 6.

1. Bob Gibson
2. Carl Yastrzemski
3. Denny McLain
4. Bill Freehan
5. Frank Howard
6. Willie McCovey

After that it gets tough.

7. Luis Tiant
8. Pete Rose
9. Billy Williams
10. Willie Mays--probably the last hurrah or the last say hey, whichever you prefer

Close but no cigar--Brock, B. Robinson, Harrelson
   15. Howie Menckel Posted: January 25, 2012 at 10:57 PM (#4045884)


1968 ballot, keeping the “streak” alive – have never missed an HOM or MMP vote

1. BOB GIBSON – I guess what won me over was that stretch from June 6 to July 30, when Bob threw 11 consecutive complete games including eight shutouts (and five in a row). There’s just something about allowing only 3 ER in 99 IP that moves me, even in a great spot for pitchers. The 88-14 K vs BB combo also worked for me, as did the 56 hits allowed. Sure his ERA was a beefy 1.66 at the start of the streak, then after dropping to 0.96 it ballooned as high in late September to 1.16 before finishing at a workmanlike 1.12 (!).
2. CARL YASTRZEMSKI – I’m also fond, I guess, of Triple Crown winners who also lead the league in H, R, OBP, SLG, OPS, OPS+, and TB. And gave you something in the field as well.
3. DENNY MCLAIN – 31 Wins! Yet in some ways the real dazzler here is the MLB-best 336 IP and the 28 CG, all with a strong 154 ERA+. Ultimate bulldogs usually aren’t this dominating.
4. WILLIE MCCOVEY – MLB-best 174 OPS+ that topped even the great Yaz. A plodder on defense, but less so than Frank Howard.
5. BILL FREEHAN – I was skeptical of all that Freehan love, but wow. A 145+ OPS+ from an excellent defensive catcher who caught in 138 of his 155 games? Yes please. A bonus for 24 HBP, led AL.
6. FRANK HOWARD – Speak of the devil (he’s actually an angel in person). Monster slugger in a year when few slugged.
7. JIMMY WYNN – 26 HR, 67 RBI, .269 AVG. A decent player, not great – unless we understand context of year and park. 158 OPS+ and strong defensive numbers tell the true story here.
8. LUIS TIANT – “Only” 258 IP, not even top 10 in MLB. But the 1.60 ERA was nice, and the 186 ERA+, 9 shutouts, and the MLB-best 5.3 hits per 9 IP. So he’s forgiven for the “weak” innings count.
9. WILLIE MAYS – Still handling CF, still banging out a 156 OPS+ (vs career 155 figure). 148 G, too. Not time to say goodbye yet, Willie.
10. WILLIE HORTON – 165 OPS+ was among baseball’s best.

Dick Allen, Hank Aaron and Roberto Clemente really hit, as did Hawk Harrelson. Juan Marichal was a tremendous workhorse.

   16. DL from MN Posted: January 27, 2012 at 10:45 AM (#4047085)
fra paulo's ballot will make it a dozen so there will be no further extensions. Balloting ends at 4 eastern today.
   17. fra paolo Posted: January 27, 2012 at 12:25 PM (#4047245)
Wot I did:

Because it was an extreme year, I calculated some custom linear weights for 1968.

Then I worked out wOBA for both pitchers and players.

Then I adjusted the wOBAs by position, park and league and related them to a 'HoVG standard'.

And here are the results:

1968 MMP Ballot
1) Bob Gibson. He was really good, but it's a lot closer than I thought.
2) Willie McCovey. McCovey was really good too, and misses the top spot because he wasn't quite as much better than the HoVG standard position-players than Gibson was better than that for pitchers.
3) Willie Mays. He put in a great season for a CF.
4) Frank Howard. All those home runs were worth an awful lot in 1968. His position and league hurt him enough to drop him behind Mays.
5) Bill Freehan. After adjusting for position, he is about as much behind Howard as Mays is behind McCovey. A great batting season for a catcher features an incredible 24 HBPs.
6) Jimmy Wynn. Maybe I didn't adjust for park enough, as I thought he'd be higher. From Mays to Wynn is quite close.
7) Carl Yastrzemski. Pretty good, but definitely a step behind the Mays to Wynn group.
8) Dick Allen. In raw batting terms a smidge better than Mays and Wynn, but hurt by the glove.
9) Dave McNally. Yes, I was surprised, and maybe I haven't accounted enough for defence. But he's definitely better than Denny McLain, who gave up 31 HRs in a year when pitchers were in control. And he's got a bit more playing time and better control than Luis Tiant. Another surprise: he hit more batters than the mean man at the top.
10) Ron Santo squeaks past Don Buford to round out the ballot.

Also-rans: Pete Rose just fractionally ahead of Hank Aaron, and both behind Tiant.
   18. DL from MN Posted: January 27, 2012 at 02:18 PM (#4047437)
I'm not understanding Yaz below Freehan. Also how close is Denny McLain?
   19. fra paolo Posted: January 27, 2012 at 03:13 PM (#4047521)
I'm not understanding Yaz below Freehan.

On the raw form, Freehan is behind Yaz. He makes up a lot of ground by being an outstanding catcher, which means positional bonus and dominance of his position, where Yaz's closest rival is Frank Howard, and therefore Yaz is 'more easily replaceable'. Freehan also benefits from being IBB'd less and hitting a couple more homers in thirty fewer PAs.

Also how close is Denny McLain?

Santo
Buford
Tiant
Rose
Aaron
McLain
McAuliffe
Campaneris
Brock

Those are the players I did in detail based on my initial WSAB cut. I almost did Haller, but I didn't. It's possible he'd have got the tenth spot, but I gambled his home runs wouldn't be enough to push him ahead of Santo/Buford.
   20. DL from MN Posted: January 27, 2012 at 05:07 PM (#4047634)
Election is closed

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