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Monday, April 09, 2012

Most Meritorious Player: 1971 Ballot

Here are the specific rules for this election:
Candidate Eligibility: Any North American professional baseball player is eligible for the Most Meritorious Player (MMP) award including players in the top Negro Leagues or independent teams. Voters should consider the player’s on-field contribution to Major League Baseball (MLB) team(s) in that season only. If part of the season was spent outside MLB, that value may be considered as well. However, the player’s on-field contribution should be judged in relation to the highest level major league, not relative to a minor league. A season may include playoff or World Series games but does not include spring training or exhibition games. No credit will be given for games not played due to injury, wartime service or contract holdouts.
Ballot Length: For 1971, each voter should rank 12 players.
Voter eligibility: All voters who did not vote in the previous year’s election must post a preliminary ballot in the ballot discussion thread at least 2 days before voting ends. All voters must fill out a complete ballot. Voters must briefly explain their ballot choices. One person, one vote; anyone determined to have voted with multiple accounts will be banned and their votes will be disallowed. The MMP ballot committee has authority to exclude any ballot that does not meet these requirements.
Scoring: Points will be given in descending order with the highest-ranked player receiving 15 points, the second highest 14 points, and so on until the last player on the ballot receives 4 points. The player with the highest point total will be named the MMP for 1971. In case of a tie, the tiebreaker will be number of 1st place votes. If the first tiebreaker does not determine a winner the players will share the title of Most Meritorious Player.

Balloting will close at 4pm EST on 18 April 2012.

Anyone can vote, even if you do not normally participate in Hall of Merit discussions. If have never participated in an MMP election, just post a preliminary ballot in the discussion thread by 16 April 2012.

DL from MN Posted: April 09, 2012 at 10:32 AM | 34 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. DL from MN Posted: April 09, 2012 at 10:45 AM (#4100955)
hot topics
   2. Chris Fluit Posted: April 09, 2012 at 12:24 PM (#4101113)
1971 Ballot

1. Wilbur Wood, Chicago White Sox P: 189 ERA+ in 334 innings
2. Tom Seaver, New York Mets P: 194 ERA+ in 286 innings
3. Hank Aaron, Atlanta Braves RF: 194 OPS+ and 137 runs created
4. Vida Blue, Oakland Athletics P: 184 ERA+ in 312 innings
5. Willie Stargell, Pittsburgh Pirates LF: 185 OPS+ and 131 runs created
6. Joe Torre, St. Louis Cardinals 3B: positional bonus basically canceled out by poor play
7. Mickey Lolich, Detroit Tigers P: 125 ERA+ isn't great but those 376 innings are impressive
8. Fergie Jenkins, Chicago Cubs P: 142 ERA+ in 325 innings and a 102 OPS+ as a pitcher
9. Bobby Murcer, New York Yankees CF: best position player in the AL
10. Dave Roberts, San Diego Padres P: plus he stole the base that sparked the rally
11. Bobby Bonds, San Francisco Giants LF: 144 OPS+ and 115 runs created
12. Roy White, New York Yankees LF: 149 OPS+ and 103 runs created

after the cutoff
13. Rusty Staub
14. Reggie Jackson
15. Graig Nettles
16. Sal Bando
17. Bill Melton
18. Tug McGraw
19. Roberto Clemente
20. Merv Rettenmund
   3. sunnyday2 Posted: April 10, 2012 at 10:29 AM (#4102553)
1971

Ah, 1971, there's a year I will never remember. Oh wait, it was one of the great years for rock 'n' roll. But that's another thread. In baseball, the mainstream was gaga for Vida Blue. And the O's who were generally believed to be the best team in MLB, the WS result to the contrary notwithstanding.

My picks with much hindsight and probably no less (or more) wisdom. (At the time I had no problem with Torre but I preferred Murcer to Blue. Now I would prefer Stargell and Murcer.)

1. Willie Stargell 188 OPS+
2. Bobby Murcer 185 OPS+
3. Joe Torre 169 OPS+ but now thought to have been a butcher in the field
4. Vida Blue 184 ERA+
5. Wilbur Wood 188 ERA+
6. Tom Seaver 194 ERA+
7. Henry Aaron 190 OPS+ in 139 games

8. Fergie Jenkins 142 ERA+
9. Sal Bando 137 OPS+
10. Bobby Bonds 146 OPS+
11. Reggie Jackson 145 OPS+

12. Roy White 154 OPS+

Big big dropoff after #7 and again after #11. Lolich, Staub, Morgan, Reggie #2, Roy White, Dick Allen considered for #12 but all are flawed.
   4. DL from MN Posted: April 10, 2012 at 06:16 PM (#4103227)
1971 MMP Ballot

1) Tom Seaver - Rate stats are sparkling this year. The overall value was close between 1 and 2 so the rate stats broke the tie
2) Wilbur Wood - innings totals this year were incredible, terrible hitter
3) Ferguson Jenkins - great year for pitchers. Less bulk than Wood, lower rates than Seaver
4) Bobby Murcer - top position player
5) Vida Blue - Great pitching season
6) Dave Roberts - Didn't know there was a Dave Roberts the pitcher until now
7) Willie Stargell - .344 playoff OBP slides him ahead of White
8) Roy White - Pretty good peak for Roy White
9) Henry Aaron
10) Graig Nettles - All the defensive stats show a remarkable season with the glove
11) Bobby Bonds
12) Mickey Lolich - another pitcher from a season of great pitching performances

13-15) Merv Rettenmund, Reggie Jackson, Joe Morgan
16-20) Joe Torre, Leo Cardenas, Don Buford, Bill Melton
   5. Rob_Wood Posted: April 10, 2012 at 10:02 PM (#4103584)
My 1971 MMP Ballot:

1. Tom Seaver - Led NL in ERA, ERA+, SO, PitWAR, and PitWPA
2. Vida Blue - Led AL in ERA, ShO, and PitWPA
3. Wilbur Wood - Led AL in ERA+, PitWAR, and TotWAR (334 IP)
4. Willie Stargell - Led NL with 7.3 WPA/LI (185 OPS+)
5. Joe Torre - Led NL in OffWAR and WPA
6. Bobby Murcer - Led AL in OBA, OPS+, WPA, and WPA/LI
7. Fergie Jenkins - Led NL in IP, W, GS, CG, PitWAR, and TotWAR
8. Hank Aaron - Led NL in SLG and OPS+
9. Roy White - the best of Roy White (nothing eye-catching)
10. Mickey Lolich - Led AL with 376 IP, 25 W, 45 GS (!), and 29 CG
11. Roberto Clemente - Very good season and post-season (but only 132 games)
12. Bobby Bonds - Solid season with very good WPA figures

13-16. Sal Bando, Reggie Jackson, Merv Rettenmund, Willie Mays
17-20. Rusty Staub, Graig Nettles, Don Buford, Dick Allen
   6. SoCalDemon Posted: April 10, 2012 at 10:50 PM (#4103604)


1. Tom Seaver 9.6 WAR, 286 innings at 194 ERA+, 4.7 SO/BB, 45 OPS+
2. Fergie Jenkins 10.6 bWAR, 325 innings at 142 ERA+, but 7.1 SO/BB and great hitting year (102 OPS+), seemed to be a little unlucky, but Seaver still beats him in FIP 1.93-2.38
3. Vida Blue 8.3 WAR, 312 innings at 185 ERA+, 3.4 SO/BB, -15 OPS+
4. Wilber Wood 10.0 WAR, 334 innings at 189 ERA+, 3.4 SO/BB, but terrible hitting (-41 OPS+), and over 124 PA, that is enough to drag him down (I thought he would be #1 for me before taking a look)
5. Joe Torre 3B 6.8 WAR*, .363/.421/.555 in 707 PA, 171 OPS+; *I do not buy his -25 fielding; surrounding years are -6 or -7, so charged him with -10; with adjustment giving him about 8.4 WAR
6. Bobby Murcer CF 7.2 WAR*, .331/.427/.543 in 624 PA, 181 OPS+;*did not buy -13 fldg, cut it in half
7. Willie Stargell LF 8.1 WAR, .295/.398/.628 in 606 PA, 185 OPS+
8. Mickey Lolich 8.5 WAR, 376(!)innings at 125 ERA+, 3.4 SO/BB, 11 OPS+
9. Dave Roberts 8.5 WAR, 270 innings at 157 ERA+, only 2.2 SO/BB, 36 OPS+
10. Roy White LF 7.4 WAR, .292/.388/.469 in 634 PA, 149 OPS+ (feels high to me)
11. Hank Aaron 1B/RF 6.6 WAR, .327/.410/.669 (launching pad, but eegads!) in 573 PA, 194 OPS+
12. Roberto Clemente RF 7.1 WAR*, .341/.370/.502, 143 OPS+; knocked him down from 20 to 12; at this point in his career, his surrounding years suggest he was only an excellent +10 fielder


13. Willie Mays
14. Sal Bando
15. Bobby Bonds
16. Merv Rettenmund
17-24: Rusty Staub, Reggie Jackson, Dick Allen, Don Wilson, Sonny Siebert, Brooks Robinson, Bert Blyleven, Graig Nettles (I do not buy his defensive ratings, give him a +15)
   7. eric Posted: April 11, 2012 at 01:17 AM (#4103656)
First ballot. Be kind.

1. Wilbur Wood. 334IP at 189 ERA+ is just nuts.
2. Vida Blue. I am comfortable with #1; #2 and #3 could be switched but I like it this way a little more.
3. Tom Seaver. Not sure I need to explain how great these guys were.

4. Willie Stargell. Best hitter by far; I'm too young to have watched these guys defensively and defensive metrics are iffy at best, so I have to go with what I'm more sure of
5. Joe Torre. I also don't believe his hugely negative defensive WAR and give him credit for perhaps an unfortunate distribution of hits. With his hitting it's hard to buy he was nursing an injury of any kind...
6. Mickey Lolich. 376IP. A very good but relatively pedestrian ERA+ slots him comfortably below the other pitchers who were no slouches in IP themselves. Placing him here below the hitters is going by my gut, I have to admit.
7. Fergie Jenkins. A hell of a year but a clear step below the top three guys. This season makes me squint at WAR a little and doubt it a touch. Very close to Lolich.
8. Bobby Murcer. An amazing offensive year for a CF (for anyone) but I do believe his defensive WAR a little more than I do Torre's. Sure the year before and after were slightly positive, but the rest of his career he's comfortably, and firmly, negative.
9. Roberto Clemente. Still an offensive and defensive force at 36.
10. Hank Aaron. Career highs in HR and SLG at 37??? Ok, that's played out. Amazing offensive year, but 139G and limited defensive value hurt him.
11. Bobby Bonds. We're getting to the part where I'm splitting hairs. Edges out Reggie due to a few extra games, a few extra SB, in what are remarkably similar seasons.
12. Reggie Jackson. My memories of him are as an old fat guy who could hit HR and threaten queens with a gun; it was a surprise to see his consistent largely positive defensive ratings as a youth.

Others: Dave Roberts--ignoring his W/L record completely, his peripherals aren't that great, and while it was still an excellent season it's hard to give a guy that much credit for greatness when he was just a benefactor of a lucky hit distribution.
Roy White, Graig Nettles, Mays, Bando, et al, these guys are all close and probably could be interchanged with #11 and #12. Again, it's hair splitting, and I went with the guys who seemed to do the most in the areas I was more sure of. Nettles' season particularly relies a lot on a very high (even for him) dWAR, which, while I don't doubt he was excellent, I do have to discount in favor of guys who clearly produced in more reliably measured ways.
   8. DL from MN Posted: April 11, 2012 at 02:03 PM (#4104127)
Good first time ballots. Enough explanation to know where you're coming from.
   9. bjhanke Posted: April 14, 2012 at 05:28 PM (#4106672)
DL - Just checking in, because you worry about numbers. I will have a ballot in on time. I had to write another baseball article, and its deadline was earlier. - Brock
   10. lieiam Posted: April 14, 2012 at 09:16 PM (#4106767)
My ballot: As usual, I use a combo of 7 different uber-stat systems. What can i say, I love messing about with numbers.
There is no league adjustment, no postseason bonus, and a 10% catcher bonus.

Here's my top 24:


1 seaver, tom 9062
2 jenkins, ferguson 8993
3 wood, wilbur 8967
4 blue, vida 7887
5 stargell, willie 7771
6 murcer, bobby 7461
7 torre, joe 7372
8 lolich, mickey 7038
9 white, roy 6947
10 aaron, hank 6827
11 roberts, dave 6721
12 jackson, reggie 6632
13 bonds, bobby 6579
14 nettles, graig 6294
15 mays, willie 6080
16 rettenmund, merv 5978
17 staub, rusty 5790
18 siebert, sonny 5704
19 morgan, joe 5699
20 allen, dick 5637
21 clemente, roberto 5630
22 otis, amos 5533
23 wilson, don 5533
24 buford, don 5512

The top 3 are SO close they're practically interchangeable in this method.
And #18 on my list, Sonny Siebert I don't recognize his name AT ALL.
[And I just took a look at baseball-reference. He had a nice career! I'm surprised I
don't remember the name. Over 2000IP, 140 wins, a 111+ ERA. (Granted, I wrote this after
closing the page so I may be remembering some of that wrong, but it's close)].
And, yes, my top 4 are all pitchers.
   11. Mr. C Posted: April 15, 2012 at 11:09 AM (#4106928)
Ballot for 1971

Method: Hitters: calculate RAA using customized linear weights: adjust for park, position, fielding ability (an average of TZ and DRA) and a reduced replacement value to give RARR. Convert to WARR.

Pitchers: Use RA to calculate RAA: adjust for park, team fielding ability to give an adjusted RAA, convert to a pythagenpat winning %. Calculate WARR for pitching. Add WARR as a hitter.

1. Tom Seaver 9.75 WARR Best unadjusted w% of .763. Adjustments dropped it only to .753. One GRRReat year.
2. Wilbur Wood 9.05 WARR Unadjusted w% of .670. Defense support was below average, bringing w% up to .692. Amazing number of innings clinched runner up spot.
3. Ferguson Jenkins 8.75 WARR had the 6th best unadjusted w% at .592, but did so in a hitter's park in front of a poor defense . Top hitting pitcher in this group.
4. Vida Blue 7.95 WARR had best unadjusted w% in the AL at .735, but did so in a pitcher's park in front of an above average defense. Adjusted w% dropped to .692.
5. Graig Nettles 7.55 WARR Obviously finished this high because of fielding numbers. I certainly listened to the discussion about fielding and debated making adjustments to Nettles' fielding value, but decided against it. I think it balances out the rankings of those of you who do not weight fielding as much in your rankings.
6. Dave Roberts 6.75 WARR
7. Mickey Lolich 6.45 WARR An unbelievable number of innings pitched a very solid level. (adjusted w% of .606)
8. Willie Stargell 6.30 WARR
9. Roy White 6.20 WARR
10. Bill Melton 5.75 WARR
11. Hank Aaron 5.70 WARR
12. Bert Blyleven 5.55 WARR

The rest of the top 20
13. Don Wilson
14. Bobby Bonds
15. Willie Mays Say Hey's last hurrah
16. Roberto Clemente
17. Joe Morgan
18. Merv Rettenmund
19. Don Buford
20. Brooks Robinson
   12. Mr. C Posted: April 15, 2012 at 11:26 AM (#4106936)
I have been working too much :-) Just noticed a mistake I made on Bobby Murcer's park factor which brings his rank up just below Don Wilson. It doesn't really change my ballot but it does make my top 20 more accurate. Sorry for the confusion.
   13. bjhanke Posted: April 16, 2012 at 05:52 AM (#4107468)
This is Brock Hanke's 1971 ballot.

OK, this one was weird. The various uberstats have almost no agreement, and this is not a year I remember well at all. So, I started off with what I usually do, just to get a handle on who did what: I copied the list of players from the header of the discussion thread, formatted it into a Word table, and sorted by Win Shares and then by BB-Ref WAR. Then I find the first 25 players on each list, and mark where they are on the other one. So Joe Torre, who is #1 in Win Shares, is #11 on the WAR list, while Ferguson Jenkins is #1 by WAR, but #3 by WS. I then sum the two rankings, to get an idea of what the balance is. Torre sums to 1 + 11 = 12, while Jenkins has 3 + 1 = 4. I then make a list of the players by sum. On that list, Jenkins' 4 makes him number 1, while Torre's 12 comes in fifth, behind Jenkins, Wood, Murcer, and Stargell. The oddity was that the #12 guy, Roy White, was no lower than 16th on either list, nor was anyone whose sum was better than Roy's. What's more, if Roy White were to have been #12 on both lists, his sum would be 24. As it is, his sum IS 24 (16 + 8). This means that, although there are obvious differences, the two lists have pretty much the same guys as the top twelve. Without much memory of this season, and with no agreement among the various uberstats, I just decided to go with that list. I figured that if I started poking around through various position lists and such, I would have a very good chance of making a worse list than the one I had, instead of a better one. So here's my ballot, along with their WS and WAR rankings and the sums:

1. Ferguson Jenkins 3+1=4
2. Wilbur Wood 5+2=7
3. Bobby Murcer 2+9=11
4. Willie Stargell 4+7=11
5. Joe Torre 1+11=12
6. Tom Seaver 10+3=13
7. Vida Blue 11+6=17
8. Hank Aaron 6+12=18
9. Mickey Lolich 15+4=19
10. Reggie Jackson 8+13=21
11. Bobby Bonds 7+16=23
12. Roy White 16+8=24
   14. DL from MN Posted: April 16, 2012 at 09:53 AM (#4107556)
Mr. C - did defense drop Torre out of your top 20?
   15. DL from MN Posted: April 16, 2012 at 09:57 AM (#4107562)
9 ballots and this election is still very much undecided.
   16. Mr. C Posted: April 16, 2012 at 11:11 PM (#4108554)
DL

Yes Torre's fielding numbers kept him out of my top 20. Like for Nettles, I pondered Torre's fielding numbers and how it affected his final rankings. But as I said before I decided that by giving full credit (or in Torre's case full debit) for his fielding I feel I provide a balance to others who don't use fielding as much.
   17. Kiko Sakata Posted: April 16, 2012 at 11:53 PM (#4108574)
My first HOM ballot of any kind. I created my own set of Player won-lost records using play-by-play data from Retrosheet. Leaders for the 1971 major leagues tied to team records are here. These numbers include postseason games. I also calculate context-neutral records, which I also look at. The numbers below are won-lost records (tied to team records - see first link); numbers in parentheses are wins over average and wins over replacement level. I give extra credit for being the best player in the majors at a position. I don't explicitly adjust for league strength, but I tended to use playing in the NL as something of a tiebreaker.

1. Fergie Jenkins, 24.3 - 18.0 (4.3, 6.4)
2. Joe Torre, 26.0 - 16.7 (4.0, 6.4)
3. Tom Seaver, 19.7 - 13.4 (3.9, 5.6) - leads in context-neutral wins over average
4. Vida Blue, 21.9 - 16.2 (3.7, 5.6)
5. Willie Stargell, 23.7 - 15.6 (3.3, 5.4) - leads in context-neutral wins over replacement
6. Jim Palmer, 21.9 - 15.9 (3.9, 5.8)
7. Bobby Murcer, 22.2 - 16.3 (2.3, 4.5) - I'm giving him a boost for (a) being the best CF, and (b) my system doesn't like his defense in 1971, but loves his defense in 1970 and 1972, so I'm treating him as more of an average or even slightly above-average fielder with this ranking.
8. Roberto Clemente, 23.9 - 15.8 (3.3, 5.6) - postseason performance helps him quite a bit
9. Reggie Jackson, 23.4 - 16.3 (2.8, 5.0)
10. Hank Aaron, 20.2 - 13.6 (2.4, 4.3) - Aaron has much better context-neutral stats
11. Davey Johnson, 20.4 - 15.5 (2.7, 4.7) - I'm giving him credit for being the best 2B in the majors
12. Dick Dietz, 16.7 - 12.0 (2.5, 4.1) - I'm giving him credit for being the best C in the majors

Honorable mention (in no particular order):

Wilbur Wood, 22.4 - 17.6 (3.3, 5.2) - he's #13 on my list. He loses every tiebreaker to Dietz (best C in the NL v. 3rd-best SP in the AL), but still has a very strong case.
Bert Campaneris, 18.9 - 15.8 (2.4, 4.4) - best SS in the majors, but not enough better than several other shortstops or good enough overall to really warrant a top-12 spot.
Don Sutton, 18.1 - 13.3 (3.2, 4.7) - similar to Wood; has a case, but there are plenty of better SPs.
Willie Mays, 18.5 - 12.5 (2.4, 4.1)
Catfish Hunter, 21.1 - 16.4 (3.3, 5.2) - falls quite a bit when context is neutralized.
   18. OCF Posted: April 17, 2012 at 12:55 AM (#4108592)
I'm pretty sure I'd have to have Seaver in the #1 spot. What I'm not so sure of is where I'd have the position players. I may try to slap together some kind of ballot.
   19. DL from MN Posted: April 17, 2012 at 11:59 AM (#4108824)
Kiko Sakata - Can you go into more detail of Jim Palmer > Wilbur Wood?
   20. DL from MN Posted: April 17, 2012 at 12:11 PM (#4108847)
Voted in one of the last 3 elections but not this year

John Murphy
fra paulo
howie menckel
Rick A
Al Peterson
Dan R
   21. Kiko Sakata Posted: April 17, 2012 at 12:57 PM (#4108911)
Kiko Sakata - Can you go into more detail of Jim Palmer > Wilbur Wood?


I'll try. I'm including postseason numbers - just counting them as regular games - which gives Jim Palmer an overall record of 22-9 with 102 runs allowed in 308 IP (2.98 RA). For Wood, he was 22-13, with 95 runs allowed in 334 IP (2.56 RA). For my Player won-lost records, I calculate my own ballpark factors, which are 1-year factors. I show Baltimore as a better hitting park than Chicago that year. BB-Ref agrees that Comiskey was a pitcher's park that year (1-year park factor of 97 v. 104 for a 3-year). So, park adjusting brings Palmer and Wood a bit closer. Controlling for context, I have Wood with a context-neutral record of 20.8 - 17.7 and Palmer at 20.4 - 18.7 (including postseason). When I adjust for context, so player wins tie to team wins, Palmer benefits from the timing of his performance (e.g., Palmer's overall OPS allowed of .613 was .560 in "close & late" situations), which pushes his context-adjusted record up to the 21.9 - 15.9 that I cite in #17, which is a bit better than Wood's 22.4 - 17.6 (Wood isn't hurt by context; Palmer's just helped by it)
   22. Rob_Wood Posted: April 17, 2012 at 04:42 PM (#4109100)
Kiko, just wondering if you try to factor in the team's defense in evaluating pitchers. Baltimore had a very good defense in 1971 (like most years in the Weaver era).
   23. Kiko Sakata Posted: April 17, 2012 at 06:28 PM (#4109153)
Kiko, just wondering if you try to factor in the team's defense in evaluating pitchers. Baltimore had a very good defense in 1971 (like most years in the Weaver era).


Yes, that's attempting to give proper credit to the Orioles' and White Sox' respective defenses. I explain how I try to share defensive credit here. One thing I noticed earlier, Palmer's BABIP against in 1971 was .251; Wilbur Wood's was .252. Palmer out-performed the other pitchers on his teams in BABIP pretty consistently over his career from what I recall (his career BABIP was .251); I'm pretty comfortable giving him some credit for that.
   24. Howie Menckel Posted: April 17, 2012 at 08:22 PM (#4109229)

looking to get a ballot in tonight...
   25. Howie Menckel Posted: April 17, 2012 at 11:11 PM (#4109341)

1. TOM SEAVER – Best ERA+, only 7th in MLB in IP, but decent stick for a pitcher, few unearned runs – no warts. It’s so close.
2. VIDA BLUE – ERA+ a little less, didn’t hit as well, more UER, AL vs NL: all but IP in Seaver’s favor.
3. WILBUR WOOD – The 24 UER weren’t just Wilbur watching grounders get booted – White Sox Cs had 32 PB that year. Still, knock 20 pts off that ERA+ and he’s still a beast.
4. FERGUSON JENKINS – Almost tried to rank him lower, to avoid the “big 4” pitching meme, but the 6 HR, 7 2B, 1 3B in 115 AB for a 102 OPS+ tally is real.
5. BOBBY MURCER – Not buying the defensive metrics to that extreme, especially in sometimes-tricky Yankee Stadium (memo to self: adjust for Yankees in Shea in 1974-75). 2nd-best OPS+ in baseball, and a CF.
6. HANK AARON – Served as a 1B-OF in ’71; much was Cepeda injury, but it was becoming time, too. Best OPS+ among BA title qualifiers in all of baseball; ahead of Murcer in OPS+/G combo if you think he had equal/+ fielding value. I don’t.
7. JOE TORRE – HIM I buy as a butcher out there at 3B that year. But too good a hitter to rank any lower.
8. WILLIE MAYS – Wound up as a CF-1B this season; 158 is nice, don’t recall him awful in CF even at this point, but did miss 26 G so slips a bit.
9. WILLIE STARGELL – 14 OPS+ lead on Torre; gives it back with 20 missed games and no wizard with the leather, either. Pirates settled for him in LF in ’71.
10. MICKEY LOLICH – A 125 ERA+ isn’t exciting, but 376 IP of it is, with 29 CG no less. Teams can win a lot of games this way; Lolich himself won 25.
11. FRANK ROBINSON – Another lion in winter, with the same frustrating number of games missed (29).
12. ROBERTO CLEMENTE – What can I say but ditto?

White, not quite sold on the fielding but he is very close obviously.
Nettles was a great fielder, but not enough to combined with a 114 OPS+.
Dick Allen, want to vote for 151 in 155 G, but he was a 3B-OF-1B-cringe for a reason in ’71.
Dave Roberts was traded to Astros after this huge season, but Padres found another Dave Roberts to play 3B in 1972. #truestory


   26. fra paolo Posted: April 18, 2012 at 01:11 PM (#4109714)
I have been distracted by another baseball project, and failed to leave enough time to work through my fielding and pitching systems (the latter of which needs a heavy-duty makeover, on account of some revised thinking about pitcher/fielder splits). So this ballot makes more use of my old reliables, WPA/LI and Win Shares Above Bench (WSAB).
Run production continued to fall from its 1969 spike, so my system tends to be 'contrarian' in that it puts more weight on good batting contributions. The lower scoring AL earns it more hitters on the ballot. I feel I have one pitcher too few, but putting Wilbur Wood on creates more problems than it solves in terms of a ballot reflecting my system of hitting numbers.

1 Tom Seaver
2 Vida Blue I have Seaver and Blue very close in value, until one adjusts for the league's different scoring environments. Seaver squeezes past at that point.
3 Bobby Murcer Before adjusting for fielding, Joe Torre is ahead of Murcer. Torre isn't as badly hurt by his glove as I thought, but I still have him as the worst-but-one 3B in the NL for 1971. Murcer is slightly below average as a fielder, so holds more of his hitting value.
4 Joe Torre By the strict numbers, he should fall three places, to #6. However, it is very close, and for a change I am going to go with what WSAB and WPA/LI are telling me.
5 Willie Stargell My system regards left-field as a defensive sinkhole. Fielding ratings here are always poor, relative to other positions. Stargell is by no means the worst left-fielder, but he's still below average. In raw hitting, Torre is way ahead, but the catchers propping up the bottom of the ballot also have an advantage. So what's Stargell doing up here? In this case, I am rewarding the highest WPA/LI score in either league.
6 Ferguson Jenkins Originally I was going to put Wood ahead of Jenkins, but Jenkins has a slight advantage in Win Shares and a bigger one in WSAB. Wood is better in WPA/LI. I'm not really sure about all this, because my pitching system is 'in restauro'.
7 Bill Melton Just below the top twelve hitters in the AL by OPS, are a number of interesting-looking third basemen. Melton is the second-best fielder of them (Graig Nettles is tops with the glove), and his glove actually carries him a lot higher. But I'm just slightly nervous about the number of right-handed batters the White Sox faced and so, believe it or not, I've taken him down quite a few places from where my system says he ought to be.
8 Reggie Jackson Reggie! had a very good season, but he's hurt more than Stargell in the transition from straight Win Shares to WSAB. (Most players are. Stargell keeps a lot more of his value than others.) I did think about putting him ahead of Melton, but my numbers say it's this way.
9 Bill Freehan
10 Dick Dietz Good-hitting catchers always come out well under my system. These two have the third and fourth best batting seasons relative to position of all players. Freehan is markedly ahead of Dietz in WSAB, but Dietz is much better in WPA/LI. So, strictly, it's level-pegging.
   27. fra paolo Posted: April 18, 2012 at 01:27 PM (#4109733)
A mistake in my introduction: NL and AL hitters are in exactly the same number. But as a proportion of my consideration sets, the AL has 'graduated' more hitters to the ballot.
   28. Yardape Posted: April 18, 2012 at 01:31 PM (#4109738)
1. Tom Seaver Others had more innings, but nobody was better than Seaver, and it's not like he had a really low innings total either.
2. Ferguson Jenkins His batting work lifts him above the other pitchers.
3. Vida Blue If he'd had a good postseason, he probably would have passed Jenkins in my rankings.
4. Wilbur Wood
5. Willie Stargell Postseason play makes him the top position player, IMO.
6. Roy White
7. Mickey Lolich Ho-hum, another pitcher effective in huge innings.
8. Bobby Murcer
9. Dave Roberts
10. Sonny Siebert
11. Roberto Clemente His excellent World Series boosts him onto my ballot ahead of the other position-player candidates.
12. Bobby Bonds

The question with Torre is his defence. It looks bad enough to me that he just misses the ballot (and he's very close with Nettles for best 3B this season). Mays and Aaron were also close to the ballot, but missed too many games or lacked the defensive credit they had earlier in their careers. In this pitcher-friendly year, it was hard for a regular good season from a position player to make it.
   29. fra paolo Posted: April 18, 2012 at 01:34 PM (#4109743)
OOps, I have to vote for twelve!

11 Wilbur WoodFrank Robinson
12 Tony Oliva

I have Tony Oliva and Frank Robinson very close on all measures, with Oliva generally slightly ahead. I am not quite convinced Oliva should be Twelfth Man, on account of playing time issues, and if you prodded me hard enough I might put Frank Robinson there instead.

EDIT: Actually, let's amend that.

And now, my ballot is properly heavily laden with AL hitters.

   30. DL from MN Posted: April 18, 2012 at 02:58 PM (#4109825)
Balloting will stay open until 5 eastern.
   31. DL from MN Posted: April 18, 2012 at 05:23 PM (#4109970)
A one-day extension has been requested. Balloting will stay open until 4 eastern tomorrow.
   32. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: April 18, 2012 at 07:10 PM (#4110049)
Ballot (no postseason bonuses; no AL deductions from now on):

1) Joe Torre - Best ML player
2) Bobby Murcer - Best AL player
3) Fergie Jenkins - Best ML pitcher
4) Tom Seaver - Not that far off from Fergie, despite the relative lack of innings.
5) Willie Stargell - Best ML left fielder.
6) Wilbur Wood - Best AL pitcher.
7) Hank Aaron - Best ML first baseman.
8) Vida Blue - He makes it the first time I have had four pitchers on one of my ballots.
9) Bobby Bonds - Best ML right fielder.
10) Reggie Jackson - Best AL right fielder.
11) Rusty Staub - Le Grand Orange!
12) Tug McGraw - Best ML reliever - a record five hurlers for a John Murphy ballot!

Terrific year for pitchers.
   33. DL from MN Posted: April 19, 2012 at 05:00 PM (#4110873)
Balloting is closed
   34. Howie Menckel Posted: April 19, 2012 at 10:14 PM (#4111025)

Steve Carlton and Dick Allen were pretty good in 1972, if a viewer here is overeager...

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