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Monday, May 14, 2012

Most Meritorious Player: 1972 Ballot

Here are the specific rules for this election:
Candidate Eligibility: Any North American professional baseball player is eligible for the Most Meritorious Player (MMP) award including players in the top Negro Leagues or independent teams. Voters should consider the player’s on-field contribution to Major League Baseball (MLB) team(s) in that season only. If part of the season was spent outside MLB, that value may be considered as well. However, the player’s on-field contribution should be judged in relation to the highest level major league, not relative to a minor league. A season may include playoff or World Series games but does not include spring training or exhibition games. No credit will be given for games not played due to injury, wartime service or contract holdouts.
Ballot Length: For 1972, each voter should rank 12 players.
Voter eligibility: All voters who did not vote in the previous year’s election must post a preliminary ballot in the ballot discussion thread at least 2 days before voting ends. All voters must fill out a complete ballot. Voters must briefly explain their ballot choices. One person, one vote; anyone determined to have voted with multiple accounts will be banned and their votes will be disallowed. The MMP ballot committee has authority to exclude any ballot that does not meet these requirements.
Scoring: Points will be given in descending order with the highest-ranked player receiving 15 points, the second highest 14 points, and so on until the last player on the ballot receives 4 points. The player with the highest point total will be named the Most Meritorious Player. In case of a tie, the tiebreaker will be number of 1st place votes. If the first tiebreaker does not determine a winner the players will share the title of Most Meritorious Player.

Balloting will close at 4pm EST on 23 May 2012.

Anyone can vote, even if you do not normally participate in Hall of Merit discussions. If have never participated in an MMP election, just post a preliminary ballot in the discussion thread by 21 May 2012.

DL from MN Posted: May 14, 2012 at 09:54 AM | 32 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. DL from MN Posted: May 14, 2012 at 09:59 AM (#4130949)
hot topics
   2. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: May 14, 2012 at 10:44 AM (#4130978)
My ballot's unchanged from the discussion thread, so I'll just copy-and-paste:

1. Steve Carlton
2. Johnny Bench -- Substantial bonus for playing essentially every day at C.
3. Joe Morgan -- led league in OBP
4. Gaylord Perry -- AL's best pitcher; astoundingly, not far off Carlton's pace
5. Dick Allen
6. Wilbur Wood -- expected to put Gibson in this spot, but the IP advantage is too huge
7. Bob Gibson -- last great season
8. Carlton Fisk -- Catcher bonus; played almost as much as Cedeno.
9. Bobby Murcer -- ahead of Cedeno on defense & PT
10. Cesar Cedeno -- Missed some time; won a GG while compiling 0 dWAR -- I'm willing to stipulate that he probably had defensive value not found in the numbers
11. Mickey Lolich
12. Pete Rose! -- played every day; good defender in this period.
   3. DL from MN Posted: May 14, 2012 at 11:02 AM (#4130993)
1) Steve Carlton -
2) Joe Morgan - best position player in baseball
3) Johnny Bench - C bonus, edge in postseason still not enough to move ahead of Joe Morgan
4) Gaylord Perry - most seasons this is enough for the best pitching performance in baseball
5) Dick Allen - decent glove this season
6) Carlton Fisk - C bonus
7) Billy Williams - very good defense
8) Bobby Murcer
9) Cesar Cedeno - could have placed higher if he hadn't led the league in caught-stealing
10) Chris Speier - random SS on my ballot, seems like the 60s and 70s were great for flash-in-the-pan shortstops
11) Bob Gibson
12) Catfish Hunter - would have been Wilbur Wood but 31.1 postseason innings moved Hunter on-ballot

13-15) Wilbur Wood, Mickey Lolich, Bobby Grich
   4. Rob_Wood Posted: May 14, 2012 at 05:44 PM (#4131313)
My 1972 MMP ballot:

1. Steve Carlton - one of the best seasons in the modern era
2. Joe Morgan - a smidge ahead of Bench due to Morgan's better WPA stats
3. Johnny Bench - great season for a great defensive catcher
4. Dick Allen - led league in most offensive stats in his first AL season
5. Gaylord Perry - 343 IP with a 1.92 ERA is pretty darned good
6. Cesar Cedeno - great offensive season in Astrodome
7. Wilbur Wood - 377 IP and 49 games started (most GS since Jack Chesbro in 1904)
8. Bobby Murcer - his best season
9. Carlton Fisk - great rookie season
10. Chris Speier - good hitting stats in an era of woeful shortstops
11. Billy Williams - led NL in SLG, OPS+, BAvg, and WPA
12. Mickey Lolich - 327 IP with 2.50 ERA
   5. Mr. C Posted: May 14, 2012 at 09:18 PM (#4131474)
1972 Final Ballot

Use WAR framework with a reduced replacement level (about 60% of normal)

1. Steve Carlton 11.35 WARR (wins above reduced replacement)
2. Gaylord Perry 9.35 WARR
3. Wilbur Wood 9.25 WARR
4. Johnny Bench 7.45 WARR
5. Dick Allen 7.40 WARR
6. Bob Gibson 7.1 WARR
7. Joe Morgan 7.05 WARR
8. Cesar Cedeno 7.00 WARR
9. Carlton Fisk 6.80 WARR
10. Bobby Murcer 6.25 WARR
11. Mickey Lolich 6.00 WARR
12. Chris Speier 5.75 WARR

The rest of the top 20
Luis Tiant
Billy Williams
Catfish Hunter
John Matlack
Ferguson Jenkins
Roy White
Don Sutton
Bobby Grich
   6. sunnyday2 Posted: May 15, 2012 at 08:17 AM (#4131661)
1972 Ballot

1. Dick Allen--199 OPS+. Only McCovey and F. Robby were better the previous decade. Add another decade and you add only Mantle and T. Williams. Brett in '80 and Bonds in '92 would be the next 2.

2. Steve Carlton--182 ERA+, 9th best of the previous decade. Must have pitched to the score.

3. Johnny Bench--171 OPS+, tied with Murcer for 2nd best, and a catcher

4. Joe Morgan
5. Bobby Murcer
6. Cesar Cedeno--I had forgotten how good he was. 163 OPS+
7. Billy Williams--166 OPS+
8. Gaylord Perry--decided on no discount for CHEATING! 168 ERA+
9. Willie Stargell--166 OPS+
10. Joe Rudi

11. Carl Fisk--159 OPS+
12. Jim Wynn
13. Pete Rose
14. Wilbur Wood
15. Luis Tiant--169 ERA+
   7. SoCalDemon Posted: May 16, 2012 at 02:14 AM (#4132563)
1 Steve Carlton (P) 346 innings at 182 ERA+
2 Johnny Bench (C) 166OPS+
3 Joe Morgan (2B) 149OPS+
4 Dick Allen (1B) 199OPS+!
5 Gaylord Perry (P) 342 innings at 170 ERA+
6 Carlton Fisk (C) 162OPS+, less durable than Bench
7 Cesar Cedeno (CF) 162OPS+
8 Wilbur Wood (P) 377 innings of 126ERA+
9 Bob Gibson (P) 278 innings at 139 ERA+
10 Chris Speier (SS) 115 OPS+
11 Bobby Murcer (CF) 169OPS+
12 Bobby Grich (SS/2B/1B) 127OPS+

Details in discussion thread. Only change was moving Speier above Murcer; his value over a typical early 70s SS is huge.
   8. Chris Fluit Posted: May 16, 2012 at 03:35 PM (#4133097)
1972 Ballot

1. Steve Carlton, P, Philadelphia Phillies: 182 ERA+ in 346 innings!
2. Johnny Bench, C, Cincinnati Reds: 166 OPS+ and 110 runs created while fielding +13 as a catcher
3. Gaylord Perry, P, Cleveland Indians: Best AL pitcher, 170 ERA+ in 342 innings
4. Dick Allen, 1B, Chicago White Sox: Best AL position player, 199 OPS+ and 131 runs created
5. Joe Morgan, 2B, Cincinnati Reds: 149 OPS+ and 117 runs created, takes tie-breaker over Fisk based on league strength
6. Carlton Fisk, C, Boston Red Sox: 162 OPS+ and 90 runs created
7. Billy Williams, LF, Chicago Cubs: 171 OPS+ and 137 runs created
8. Wilbur Wood, P, Chicago White Sox: 376 innings- yikes!- at 126 ERA+
9. Bobby Murcer, CF, New York Yankees: 169 OPS+ and 114 runs created
10. Cesar Cedeno, CF, Houston Astros: 162 OPS+ and 115 runs created
11. Don Sutton, P, Los Angeles Dodgeers: 162 ERA+ in 272 innings
12. Jim Palmer, P, Baltimore Orioles: 150 ERA+ in 274 innings, edges Hunter and Lolich for the last ballot spot because he wasn't quite as atrocious a hitter as the other two

   9. Kiko Sakata Posted: May 17, 2012 at 10:45 PM (#4134545)
I use my own Player won-lost records. The numbers shown here are tied to team records: pWins - pLosses, pWOPA (pWins over positional average), pWORL (pWins over replacement level). These records include the postseason. I also calculate context-neutral records: eWins and eLosses.

1. Steve Carlton: 25.5 - 15.3, 6.1, 8.1 - just a great, great season!
2. Joe Morgan: 26.5 - 17.2, 5.1, 7.6 - his first year as JOE MORGAN!
3. Johnny Bench: 22.8 - 14.2, 4.3, 6.4 - I talk about Morgan v. Bench in the discussion thread (comment #18). I won't say you're wrong if you think Bench should be ahead of Morgan, but I disagree.
4. Gaylord Perry: 25.1 - 18.9, 4.1, 6.3 - a great season, but that's one "great" short of Carlton.
5. Cesar Cedeno: 23.8 - 15.9, 3.3, 5.5 - Cedeno ranks higher in context-neutral stats (4th in eWOPA, 3rd in eWORL); exceptionally well-rounded performance. I have him top 5 in batting, top 3 in baserunning, and top 3 in fielding (in CF) in the majors in 1972.
6. Dick Allen: 23.4 - 12.2, 4.2, 6.2
7. Catfish Hunter: 21.6 - 15.4, 4.0, 5.8 - postseason helps quite a bit
8. Bob Gibson: 20.3 - 14.2, 3.9, 5.6 - Gibson's last great season
9. Bobby Murcer: 23.2 - 16.9, 2.5, 4.8
10. Billy Williams: 23.4 - 17.2, 2.2, 4.5
11. Chris Speier: 19.8 - 17.7, 1.8, 3.9 - slight bonus for being the best SS in MLB, although he's top 10 in eWOPA and eWORL even without that bonus.
12. Carlton Fisk: 14.6 - 10.5, 2.2, 3.6 - he ranks higher in context-neutral stats (6th in eWOPA, 11th in eWORL), that and a bit of a catcher bonus get him into the last slot on my ballot.
   10. DL from MN Posted: May 18, 2012 at 03:44 PM (#4135185)
Cesar Cedeno as top 3 in baserunning seems strange considering he led the league in CS and only stole at a 72% rate.
   11. Kiko Sakata Posted: May 19, 2012 at 03:31 PM (#4135817)
Cesar Cedeno as top 3 in baserunning seems strange considering he led the league in CS and only stole at a 72% rate.


I calculate the break-even SB rate for the 1972 NL at 63.5% and lower than that in the Astrodome.
   12. lieiam Posted: May 19, 2012 at 04:09 PM (#4135843)
I finally got my ballot finished.
It's my usual 7 system combined mess.
10% catcher bonus and no postseason credit.


1- Steve Calrton 9757
2- Gaylor Perry 8937
3- Johnny Bench 8889
4- Joe Morgan 8426
5- Dick Allen 7951
6- Wilbur Wood 7089
7- Cesar Cedeno 6868
8- Carlton Fisk 6818
9- Bobby Murcer 6597
10-Billy Williams 6485
11-Bob Gibson 6424
12-Pete Rose 5905
13-Mickey Lolich 5863
14-Chris Speier 5490
15-Jimmy Wynn 5323
16-Joe Rudi 5240
17-Catfish Hunter 5188
18-Jim Palmer 5081
19-Don Sutton 5051
20-Roy White 4968
21-John Mayberry 4848
22-Nolan Ryan 4818
23-Bobby Grich 4793
24-Mike Epstein 4775
   13. DL from MN Posted: May 21, 2012 at 10:59 AM (#4136757)
New voters please post a prelim by today
   14. bjhanke Posted: May 21, 2012 at 10:52 PM (#4137453)
Kiko (#11) - I would be VERY interested in how you calculate varying stolen base break-even points by year and ballpark. I've wanted to do this for years, as soon as I figured out that a stolen base is worth more in low-scoring environments, like the dead ball era and the late 1960s, than it is in higher-scoring times, so the break-even point had to be lower. At that time, the only way I knew of anyone calculating the break-even point was to use Markov chains to estimate runs. I know that, in order to adjust for time period and ballpark, you have to adjust through to what those runs are worth in terms of wins, but I never could figure out how, without the Markov chains getting way out of hand. So, how do you do it? - Brock Hanke
   15. bjhanke Posted: May 22, 2012 at 12:14 AM (#4137495)
Here's Brock Hanke's final ballot. I've listed the players in order without comments, and then added the comments, as per my usual. One oddity that I noticed is that the WAR numbers listed in the discussion thread are not exactly the same as the ones on the BB-Ref web site. They're not different in any serious quantity, but they're not the same. Don't know why.

1. Steve Carlton
2. Dick Allen
3. Joe Morgan
4. Gaylord Perry
5. Johnny Bench
6. Cesar Cedeno
7. Bobby Murcer
8. Wilbur Wood
9. Carlton Fisk
10. Bob Gibson
11. Billy Wllliams
12. Jim Wynn

1. Steve Carlton
Probably the biggest sign that the Cardinal organization, in the early 1970s, was in a state of chaos. I think you may all have read my description of the "Richard Nixon trades" that include this one. If anyone hasn't, and wants to know what I mean by that, I'm willing to post the story up again, but I don't want to bore the audience here with a repetition.

2. Dick Allen
Allen strides atop the first basemen like the Colossus of Rhodes. This is not normal. Usually, there are at least a couple or three first basemen who can really hit, so no one can rise too far above the rest. But not this year. This year, it's Dick Allen alone.

3. Joe Morgan
When I said that Dick Allen strode atop the first basemen, I didn't mean like Joe Morgan dominated second base or anything. Second is a little easier to dominate than first, because first base has those guys who can really hit but aren't much with the glove. Still, Joe looks like some bad organization just could not see that they had a major league star down there in AAA ball, and just left him there all season. Everyone else looks like a minor leaguer, compared to Joe.

4. Gaylord Perry
Not as many IP as Wilbur Wood, but a much lower ERA. And Wilbur was pitching in cavernous Old Comiskey.

5. Johnny Bench
Would rank higher if Carlton Fisk and Ted Simmons didn't keep him from completely dominating the catchers.

6. Cesar Cedeno
As I've said, I don't remember the early 1970s all that well, but I do remember thinking that Cesar, when he was young, was on his way to a Hall of Fame career.

7. Bobby Murcer
1972 was a good year for center fielders. I have three on my ballot, which indicates that none of them really dominated the position, but they were all just really, really good.

8. Wilbur Wood
The Knuckleball Year. As I said in the Perry comment above, Wood looks dominant until you look at Carlton and Perry. Neither could match Wilbur's IP, but both had lower ERAs and Wilbur pitched in what may have been the worst hitters' park in the AL.

9. Carlton Fisk
As usual with Fisk, there's nothing spectacular to say. He was just ballot-level great.

10. Bob Gibson
Uh, Gibby. Don't do it. This is info from the future. I know your arm is finally about to go after this fine season, long before your desire to win does, and I know you're contemplating trying to stage a comeback as a knuckleball pitcher. Don't do it. It's not going to work. Oh, dear.

11. Billy Williams
WAR has a giant cluster of guys between 5.8 and 6.5 WAR. Win Shares says go with Billy Williams.

12. Jim Wynn
I can make very good arguments for Pete Rose and Mickey Lolich in this spot. I just decided I'd rather have the center fielder.
   16. lieiam Posted: May 22, 2012 at 12:48 AM (#4137512)
Maybe the thread was started before baseball reference updated their WAR methods.
That would be my guess.
   17. Kiko Sakata Posted: May 22, 2012 at 12:52 AM (#4137514)
Brock (#14) - it's basically Win Probability. Use win probability to calculate an average win value for stolen bases, do the same for caught stealings. Then it's algebra to figure out the weights that would make them equal. I describe the basics of my system here and basestealing specifically here. I calculate ballpark-specific win probability matrices, which I describe here. I don't explicitly calculate break-even values by ballpark, although I think I could if I wanted to. But I do calculate them by league/year. I link to the relevant numbers for the 1972 NL in #11 (bottom table) - you can get to a different year from there from the top of the page.
   18. bjhanke Posted: May 22, 2012 at 06:44 AM (#4137550)
Kiko - THANKS! I will check out your links and then spend about a month looking at things. What got this started as a serious priority for me (as I said, I've thought this was true for years), BTW, was the Hall of Merit. Lou Brock keeps coming up right at the end of my ballot. Sometimes I have him in there, sometimes not. But I realize that the normal method of evaluating his SB is wrong. The break-even point is low for Lou, because his played in the 60s and 70s. The same thing applies to some of my favorite dead ball era players. I'm not sure how you go about calculating win probability, but you've given me three links, so I should be able to figure it out.

And Iieiam is probably right. I wasn't aware that BB-Ref updated their WAR methods, although they must have to after a few years, at the longest. For it to happen right at the beginning of a season makes a lot of sense. You can follow the season without worry. - Brock
   19. DL from MN Posted: May 22, 2012 at 01:01 PM (#4137753)
Voted last year, no ballot yet this year:

eric
Yardape
Howie Menckel
fra paulo
John Murphy
   20. OCF Posted: May 22, 2012 at 11:19 PM (#4138327)
I know I'm late but I've decided to slap together a ballot. Some points of view:

Yes, pitching that many innings that well is really worth that much. It was a pitcher's year, and the pitchers will dominate my ballot.

The NL advantage over the AL was still in place.

Most if this is a mishmash of my old methods from HoM debates long past, and the work I did years ago. It is lightly informed by some version or another of WAR. And a lot of it is seat-of-the pants rather than that strictly quantitative.

1. Carlton
2. Perry
3. Allen (Yes, that really was a monster offensive season)
4. Morgan
5. Bench
6. Wood
7. Cedeno
8. Gibson (His hitting puts him ahead of some of the other pitchers)
9. Fisk
10. Hunter
11. Lolich
12. Rose

Also strongly considered: Grich, Jenkins, Murcer, Ryan, Sutton , B. Williams, Wynn
   21. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: May 22, 2012 at 11:43 PM (#4138339)
If anyone hasn't, and wants to know what I mean by that, I'm willing to post the story up again, but I don't want to bore the audience here with a repetition.


Please do.
   22. bjhanke Posted: May 23, 2012 at 03:07 AM (#4138386)
OK, this post is about the "Richard Nixon trades", per the request above. Those of you who have already read this can skip this post.

First off, credibility. I'd heard this story around STL, where I live, for decades, but was not completely sure of it until I got to meet the GM involved, Bing Devine, and he confirmed it.

Here's what happened: In 1971 or early 1972, President Richard Nixon "imposed voluntary", whatever that meant, wage and price controls of 8%. These were not mandatory, and were meant to apply to whole company payrolls, but Gussie Busch, owner of the Cards, was, if anything, to the right of Nixon, and decided it was time to give those overpaid ballplayers a taste of reality as he saw it. Remember, this is only a year after the Curt Flood fiasco. Gussie was not happy with his ballplayers, and the team was not happy with its owner. Anyway, Gussie told GM Devine that the 8% was to apply to EACH individual player contract. His timing could hardly have been worse. Ted Simmons and Steve Carlton had just had breakthrough years in 1971, and Jerry Reuss had just confirmed that he was MLB ready. None of the three were going to accept no 8% raise, nor should they.

According to his own words, Devine got down on his knees and pleaded with Gussie to let him break the rule and sign these three players, who were all going to play out their contract year and threaten free agency if he did not (this was before Messersmith, but after Flood). Gussie said he could keep one, but had to trade the other two. Bing decided to keep Ted Simmons, which, if you didn't know just how good Carlton was going to get, was certainly the right decision. It took a few months to get Ted signed to a realistic contract, and Bill James mentions in the Historical Abstract that Simmons could have been the test case for the reserve clause, instead of Messersmith. But that's not what Ted was trying to do. He was just trying to get a decent contract.

Anyway, every GM in the league knew that Bing had to unload Carlton and Reuss for whatever he could get. His best offers were Rick Wise from the Phillies for Carlton, and a kid named Scipio Spinks (with throw-in Lance Clemons) from the Astros for Reuss. Wise was a solid major league pitcher, but certainly not Steve Carlton. Spinks actually pitched pretty well in 1972, until he broke his leg trying to score a run as a baserunner, ending his major league career as anything. So what Bing got, essentially, was Rick Wise and Lance Clemons for Carlton and Reuss.

Aside from any other effects, this, combined with the Flood thing, caused Cardinal morale to drop like a stone. Worse, the manager was Red Schoendienst. Red is not a bad manager in the right circumstances, but he is very passive, like Chuck Tanner. There was no way he was going to come up with the force of personality to rally these disgruntled troops behind him. This explains a lot of how the Cards could never win anything in the 1970s, and were usually disappointing, given the talent they had. Motivation was low. Management was passive. The strongest personality on the team - Bob Gibson - was about finished early in the decade. The team basically floundered for a lost decade until Whitey Herzog came along and got the roster under control. trading the players he could not motivate.

So, that's the short version of the story. I don't think it needs any more details. - Brock
   23. bjhanke Posted: May 23, 2012 at 03:16 AM (#4138388)
Note: I just double-checked Scipio Spinks, and I am off a year on him. He did pitch well in 1972, but tore up his knee, not his leg, on July 4, 1972, scoring from first on a double by running through Johnny Bench. That'll mess your knee up. Scipio then came back in 1973. He pitched badly for a short time, and his arm stated acting up. I don't know if it was the result of compensating for the knee, but that would be a good speculation. Apparently, teams were still trying to get him to fully recover as late as 1974, but his last major league game was in 1973. - Brock
   24. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: May 23, 2012 at 01:18 PM (#4138666)
1) Steve Carlton: Best player in the majors - nobody is even close, IMO. A towering effort wasted on such a crappy team.
2) Gaylord Perry: Best AL pitcher - in most years, he would have easily been the best pitcher in the majors.
3) Joe Morgan: Best ML second baseman
4) Johnny Bench: Best ML catcher - could be argued that he should be above Little Joe, but not above Steve or Gaylord.
5) Dick Allen: Best ML first baseman.
6) Bobby Murcer: Best ML center fielder.
7) Bob Gibson: Hoot's last great year.
8) Carlton Fisk: Best AL catcher.
9) Cesar Cedeno: Best NL center fielder.
10) Billy Williams: Best ML left fielder.
11) Mike Marshall: Best ML reliever.
12) Pete Rose: I'll be nice and not say anything about him at all. :-)
   25. DL from MN Posted: May 23, 2012 at 04:00 PM (#4138849)
Balloting is closed
   26. Howie Menckel Posted: May 23, 2012 at 09:59 PM (#4139077)

apologies for my 1st miss ever, but life got in the way. will look to contribute in future voting...
   27. DL from MN Posted: May 25, 2012 at 01:29 PM (#4140081)
John Mayberry as the best guy to not get a vote?
   28. lieiam Posted: May 25, 2012 at 11:25 PM (#4140600)
I've got Roy White the highest of anyone who I don't think got a vote.
But he was 20th for me and John Mayberry was 21st. Very close (for me) between the two.
   29. Howie Menckel Posted: May 26, 2012 at 09:42 AM (#4140652)

who won?
   30. DL from MN Posted: May 26, 2012 at 10:10 AM (#4140653)
Steve Carlton received all but one first place vote. Fra paulo usually posts the results but he's been busy enough that he didn't get a chance to vote this year. I haven't heard a confirmation on the final tally yet from him.
   31. fra paolo Posted: May 26, 2012 at 11:12 AM (#4140676)
I will post a results thread at some point today. Sorry for the delay.
   32. fra paolo Posted: May 26, 2012 at 05:51 PM (#4140858)
I am having problems posting the results thread. I have e-mailed Jim Furtado about the matter, for advice. However, that will probably mean no results thread today. If Jim gets back to me today, and I've got time to fiddle with the results' table layout (sometimes a very time-consuming process), I'll post the thread.

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