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Monday, April 23, 2012

Most Meritorious Player: 1972 Discussion

The 1972 strike gave each team an uneven schedule; remember that when considering your ballots. Major League Baseball arrives in Dallas, TX and leaves Washington DC. Carlton Fisk and John Matlack make impressive debuts. Josh Gibson and Buck Leonard are elected to the Hall of Fame along with Sandy Koufax, Yogi Berra and Early Wynn. The Tigers, Athletics, Reds and Pirates made the playoffs with the A’s beating the Reds in a World Series I remember from Roger Angell’s vivid description in Five Seasons.

Voting will end on May 23rd 2012.

Player 			SH Win	BB-ref
        		Shares	WAR
Johnny Bench		39.5	9.1
Joe Morgan		37.9	10.0
Dick Allen		41.0	9.3
Billy Williams		32.2	6.0
Carlton Fisk		32.1	7.1
Bobby Murcer		35.3	7.1
Cesar Cedeno		33.4	8.2
Chris Speier		24.2	6.1
Bobby Grich		22.4	5.8
John Mayberry		27.2	5.1
Jim Wynn		28.4	6.1
Pete Rose		31.2	6.3
Joe Rudi		29.1	5.9
Bert Campaneris		20.9	4.0
Mike Epstein		26.9	5.6
Rich Hebner		22.5	5.4
Reggie Jackson		26.4	5.5
Rod Carew		22.1	4.4
Dusty Baker		22.9	4.4
Bobby Tolan		21.7	5.0
Roy White		25.5	4.4
Willie Davis		25.9	5.1
Graig Nettles		20.2	4.1
Willie Stargell		25.7	4.1
Carlos May		29.1	5.1
Reggie Smith		25.9	4.3
Roberto Clemente	15.9	4.4
Darrell Evans		20.0	3.5
Ron Santo		21.6	5.1
Bobby Bonds		22.7	5.1
Nate Colbert		27.5	5.2
Thurman Munson		20.2	2.5
Ted Simmons		24.0	4.2
Sal Bando		22.7	4.9
Tony Perez 		24.3	5.3
George Scott		20.6	4.5
Ken Berry		22.2	3.1

Pitchers
Steve Carlton		39.3	12.4
Gaylord Perry		38.6	10.4
Bob Gibson		27.2	8.1
Wilbur Wood		28.9	8.9
Catfish Hunter		23.2	5.5
Mickey Lolich		26.3	6.3
Phil Niekro		21.8	6.0
John Matlack		21.7	6.4
Don Sutton		23.8	5.8
Jim Palmer		23.9	5.6
Nolan Ryan		24.3	6.2
Tom Seaver		21.2	6.0
Claude Osteen		21.1	6.5
Ferguson Jenkins	21.4	6.2
Burt Hooton		16.6	5.3
Rick Wise		19.8	5.4
Roger Nelson		16.7	4.4
Luis Tiant		18.6	5.2
Bert Blyleven		19.3	4.3
Mike Marshall		21.2	4.2
Tug McGraw		21.0	3.8
DL from MN Posted: April 23, 2012 at 12:46 PM | 46 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. DL from MN Posted: April 23, 2012 at 01:01 PM (#4113691)
Hot topics
   2. sunnyday2 Posted: April 23, 2012 at 01:20 PM (#4113707)
Prelim

1. Saturate Before Using--Jackson Browne
2. Fleetwood Mac’s Greatest Hits (import). "Peter Green's Fleetwood Mac."
3. Living In the Past--Jethro Tull. A greatest hits package. I don't ordinarily rate hits packages this high but both of these contained a lot of tunes that had not been released previously in the U.S.
4. Rising --Mark-Almond. Mark-Almond was also the best concert of the year.
5. Eat A Peach--Allman Brothers Band
6. Thick As A Brick--Jethro Tull
7. Paul Simon
8. Give It Up--Bonnie Raitt
9. Of Rivers and Religion--John Fahey
10. Sunset Ride--Zephyr

11. The Captain and Me--Doobie Brothers
12. A Tribute to Woody Guthrie--various artists, including Dylan doing "I Ain't Got No Home"
13. Fragile--Yes
14. Harvest--Neil Young
15. John Prine
16. Ace--Bob Weir. "Mexicali Blues"!
17. Hobo’s Lullaby--Arlo Guthrie. "City of New Orleans"!
18. The Inner Mounting Flame--Mahavishnu Orchestra
19. Just Another Band from L.A.--Frank Zappa and the Mothers of Invention
20. Kongos--John Kongos

A definite shift from rock 'n roll to folk this year. As a matter of fact, the air audibly came out of the rock 'n roll balloon, kinda like my Minnesota Twins a year earlier.

   3. sunnyday2 Posted: April 23, 2012 at 01:24 PM (#4113712)
Oh wait, here's my prelim.

1. Dick Allen
2. Steve Carlton
3. Johnny Bench
4. Joe Morgan
5. Bobby Murcer
6. Cesar Cedeno
7. Billy Williams
8. Gaylord Perry unless I discount him for CHEATING!
9. Willie Stargell
10. Joe Rudi

11. Carl Fisk
12. Jim Wynn
13. Pete Rose
14. Wilbur Wood
15. Luis Tiant

HM. Bobby Tolan, Tony Oliva, Bob Gibson, Carlos May, Lee May, Claude Osteen
   4. DL from MN Posted: April 23, 2012 at 01:57 PM (#4113740)
1972 prelim

1) Steve Carlton - wow
2) Joe Morgan
3) Johnny Bench - C bonus
4) Gaylord Perry
5) Dick Allen - decent glove this season
6) Carlton Fisk - C bonus
7) Billy Williams
8) Bobby Murcer
9) Cesar Cedeno
10) Chris Speier
11) Bob Gibson
12) Wilbur Wood
13-14) Bobby Grich, John Mayberry,
15-21) Mickey Lolich, Pete Rose, Joe Rudi, Bert Campaneris, Mike Epstein, Rich Hebner, Reggie Jackson
22) Rod Carew

I will have to use playoff credit to sort out 15-21. Lolich was pretty good in the postseason which may get him on the ballot.
   5. DL from MN Posted: April 23, 2012 at 02:54 PM (#4113785)
In regards to #1 - here are some that you missed: Exile on Main St, Pink Moon, Music of My Mind, Talking Book, Number 1 Record, Ziggy Stardust, Roxy Music, School's Out, On the Corner, Transformer, The Harder They Come Sdtk, Ege Bamyasi and Neu!. There's also my dad's favorite Rocky Mountain High - John Denver and my mom's favorite Hot August Night - Neil Diamond.

I'd like to table this conversation until after the ballot thread shows up.
   6. Misirlou's been working for the drug squad Posted: April 23, 2012 at 03:07 PM (#4113795)
#1 Deep Purple Machine Head and/or, the greatest live album ever, Made in Japan
   7. The Mighty Quintana Posted: April 23, 2012 at 03:25 PM (#4113819)
Elton John - Honky Chateau
Randy Newman - Sail Away
Little Feat - Sailin' Shoes

Maybe the peak year for Rock n' Roll - where the complexities of the songs and themes rose to meet the instrumental virtuosity.
   8. DL from MN Posted: April 23, 2012 at 03:36 PM (#4113831)
Lifted wholesale from Wikipedia:

In Carlton's first season with Philadelphia, he led the league in wins (27), complete games (30), strikeouts (310), and ERA (1.97), despite playing for a team whose final record was 59–97. His 1972 performance earned him the Hickok Belt as the top professional athlete of the year. His having won 46% of his team's victories is a record in modern major league history. Carlton attributed his success to his grueling training regime, which included Eastern martial arts techniques, the most famous of which was twisting his fist to the bottom of a 5 gallon bucket of rice.

Some highlights of Carlton's 1972 season included starting the season with 5 wins and 1 loss, then losing 5 games in a row, during which the Phillies scored only 10 runs. [7] At this point he began a 15-game winning streak. After it ended at a 20–6 record, he finished the final third of the year with 7 more wins and 4 losses, ending with 27 wins and 10 losses. Since he completed 30 of 41 starts, the 1972 Phillies rarely needed the bullpen when Steve Carlton pitched.

During the 18 games of the winning streak (3 were no-decisions), Carlton pitched 155 innings, allowed 103 hits and 28 runs (only 17 in the 15 winning games), issued 39 walks, and had 140 strikeouts. From July 19, 1972 to August 13, 1972 he pitched six complete games, won six games, allowed only 1 earned run, and threw four shutouts. Over this period he pitched 56 innings, allowing only one unearned run. [8] Steve had three pitches, a rising fastball, a legendary slider, and a long looping curve ball. Baseball commentators during 1972 regularly remarked that Steve's slider was basically unhittable. He was also a good hitter for a pitcher. At times he pinch-hit for the Phillies during 1972
   9. DL from MN Posted: April 23, 2012 at 03:37 PM (#4113836)
Anyone have this article referenced on wiki?

"Steve Carlton's Long Winning Streak in '72 Still Amazing" by Ted Silary from Baseball Digest Nov 1992
   10. Mark Armour Posted: April 23, 2012 at 04:34 PM (#4113891)
All of Baseball Digest is on-line:
http://books.google.com/books/about/Baseball_Digest.html?id=8LcDAAAAMBAJ
   11. SoCalDemon Posted: April 23, 2012 at 10:27 PM (#4114297)
So last year was my first ballot, and there was no catcher that made a big impact on the MMP ballot. However, this year, Bench (and Fisk) is (are) obviously high up there, and I was wondering what people's thoughts were about a catcher bonus (how much, if at all?). My initial impulse is that WAR and other systems are overly harsh (catching is just damn difficult in ways that may be hard to pick up on), and to give a pretty sizable bonus to catchers. While I don't strictly use WAR, using bWAR as a rough cut was useful for me last year; taking a stab at it, I might want to credit Bench up to 20%, which would put him right behid Calton for me. But I really don't have a good grasp on this; input, or pointing me towards a prior thread on the subject, would be greatly appreciated. Also, would anyone be able to post DanR's numbers for SS this year? I am guessing they help out Morgan a lot.
   12. Kiko Sakata Posted: April 23, 2012 at 10:58 PM (#4114349)
I have created Player won-lost records from Retrosheet play-by-play data. I have two sets of wins, pWins tie to team wins, and eWins are context-neutral. For my rankings, I look at wins over positional average (WOPA) as well as over replacement level (WORL). Top 25 for pWins (pWOPA, pWORL) are here; top 25 for eWins (eWOPA, eWORL) are here. These numbers all include postseason games.

1. Steve Carlton - leads in all 4 measures (pWOPA, pWORL, eWOPA, eWORL), one of the greatest seasons of the last 60 years. Since 1972, only Dwight Gooden's 1985 and a couple of Barry Bonds seasons have arguments for being better than Carlton's 1972.

2. Joe Morgan - he's 2nd in all 4 of my measures. This is the first season where Joe Morgan became JOE MORGAN.

There are then 5 other guys who are top 10 in all 4 measures. Not necessarily in order, they are:

Johnny Bench - his postseason pushes him up to a pretty solid #3. To answer #11, I think some catcher bonus might make some sense, although in this case, I can't see giving Bench enough to put him ahead of Morgan.
Gaylord Perry - top 5 in all 4 measures I'm looking at. Definitely the best pitcher in the AL, probably the best player (in the AL).
Catfish Hunter - postseason helps him, but my system really likes him even based only on his regular-season.
Cesar Cedeno - #3 in eWORL, #4 in eWOPA; he falls a bit when player wins are tied to team wins
Bob Gibson - his last great season

That's 7 guys. The 5 players who will probably round out my ballot, again, not necessarily in order, are:

Dick Allen - #4 in pWOPA, #5 in pWORL; I could see slotting him ahead of several guys I've already named (perhaps as high as #5 right below Perry).
Bobby Murcer - as I noted in putting him on my 1971 ballot, my system really likes his defense in 1972 (and 1970)
Carlton Fisk - he actually ranks slightly ahead of Johnny Bench in context-neutral wins over average (eWOPA)
Chris Speier - best SS in MLB this season
Billy Williams - best corner outfielder in MLB

Honorable mention guys, although I can't see putting any of them on my ballot:

Jim Palmer - tying player wins to team wins, my system really likes Jim Palmer - he did a great job for a lot of his career of doing what he needed to do to win games
Claude Osteen - best hitting pitcher in 1972 helps, but not quite enough
Don Sutton - very, very good; just misses my ballot

The positions that aren't represented in the guys I just named are 3B - the best in my system is Richie Hebner, who was very good, but not top 12 in MLB good, RF - best was Jimmy Wynn, who was a bit better than Hebner, but not enough to really get close to a ballot, and RP (if you view that as its own position) - best was probably Terry Forster.
   13. SoCalDemon Posted: April 24, 2012 at 12:17 AM (#4114486)
Kiko, thanks! With a catcher and (smaller) SS bonus, I have Bench and Morgan essentially tied, so for you, what pushes Morgan ahead (I think I understand your system, so is it just catcher bonus)?
   14. eric Posted: April 24, 2012 at 01:47 AM (#4114505)
At times he pinch-hit for the Phillies during 1972


I can't find that on BB-ref. (I understand you aren't making the claim, just repeating the wikipedia article).
   15. Misirlou's been working for the drug squad Posted: April 24, 2012 at 06:18 AM (#4114523)
At times he pinch-hit for the Phillies during 1972



I can't find that on BB-ref. (I understand you aren't making the claim, just repeating the wikipedia article).


No, he didn't. He did once in 1979 and once in 1984, but that's it for his Phillie career.
   16. Dag Nabbit is part of the zombie horde Posted: April 24, 2012 at 09:41 AM (#4114567)
In regards to #1 - here are some that you missed: Exile on Main St, Pink Moon, Music of My Mind, Talking Book, Number 1 Record, Ziggy Stardust, Roxy Music, School's Out, On the Corner, Transformer, The Harder They Come Sdtk, Ege Bamyasi and Neu!. There's also my dad's favorite Rocky Mountain High - John Denver and my mom's favorite Hot August Night - Neil Diamond.

As long as we're getting into pop culture, it was also the year of The Godfather.

And Aguirre: The Wrath of God, Cabaret, Deliverence, Play It Again Sam, Ulzana's Raid, Frenzy, Sleuth, Slaughterhouse Five (movie, not book), and 1776.
   17. DanG Posted: April 24, 2012 at 11:13 AM (#4114638)
and RP (if you view that as its own position) - best was probably Terry Forster.
The WAR view from the bullpen in 1972:

Rk            Player WAR ERASV    WPA  WHIP GF GS    IP Age  Tm Lg  W L  ERA OPS+
1      Mike Marshall 4.2  198 18  3.263 1.112 56  0 116.0  29 MON NL 14 8 1.78   60
2         Tug McGraw 3.9  198 27  6.519 1.047 47  0 106.0  27 NYM NL  8 6 1.70   61
3         Jim Brewer 3.3  267 17  2.424 0.843 41  0  78.1  34 LAD NL  8 7 1.26   43
4        Sparky Lyle 3.1  154 35  4.387 1.050 56  0 107.2  27 NYY AL  9 5 1.92   71
5      Terry Forster 2.5  141 29  2.045 1.190 45  0 100.0  20 CHW AL  6 5 2.25   68
6        Dave Giusti 2.3  175 22  2.163 1.058 44  0  74.2  32 PIT NL  7 4 1.93   62
7     Darold Knowles 2.0  210 11  1.409 1.310 29  0  65.2  30 OAK AL  5 1 1.37   84
8    Ramon Hernandez 2.0  202 14  3.269 1.029 31  0  70.0  31 PIT NL  5 0 1.67   53
9       Clay Carroll 1.6  144 37  4.759 1.260 54  0  96.0  31 CIN NL  6 4 2.25   99
10     Paul Lindblad 1.5  116  9  0.037 1.244 33  0  99.2  30 TEX AL  5 8 2.62  107
11         Cy Acosta 1.4  206  5  1.220 1.212 17  0  34.2  25 CHW AL  3 0 1.56   78
12     Ted Abernathy 1.4  179  5 
-0.193 1.080 25  0  58.1  39 KCR AL  3 4 1.70   72
13     George Culver 1.4  110  2  0.032 1.192 16  0  97.1  28 HOU NL  6 2 3.05   81 
   18. Kiko Sakata Posted: April 24, 2012 at 11:17 AM (#4114642)
With a catcher and (smaller) SS bonus, I have Bench and Morgan essentially tied, so for you, what pushes Morgan ahead (I think I understand your system, so is it just catcher bonus)?


The big difference is positional average. I actually have catchers having a higher positional average in 1972 (.495) than second basemen (.490) (note: those are winning percentages). Here's my positional averages by season, which are just calculated empirically (i.e., the overall winning percentage for players compiled while they were catchers in 1972 was .495) as explained here.

Per BB-Ref, in 1972, catchers batted .242/.311/.353 while second basemen hit .248/.310/.322. Catchers in 1972 included Bench (OPS+ of 166), Fisk (162), Bill Freehan (122), and Ted Simmons (127). It was just a very good time for good-hitting catchers (and a "good" time for weak-hitting middle infielders).

In terms of Morgan v. Bench, I have Morgan being better on offense (his OPS+ is lower but is more OBP-heavy, so I have him as both a better batter and baserunner), and Bench a better fielder. Bench has a better winning percentage than Morgan (.616 to .606 for pWins, including postseason), but Morgan is being compared to a lower positional average and Morgan also has about 6 more player decisions (40 - 34): Morgan had more PAs 680 - 653, and 2B make a lot more fielding plays than catchers. Given Bench's advantage in winning percentage, I could see giving enough of a bonus to push Bench past Morgan, although I'm personally not inclined to do so.
   19. Kiko Sakata Posted: April 24, 2012 at 11:28 AM (#4114651)
The WAR view from the bullpen in 1972:

...
5 Terry Forster 2.5 141 29 2.045 1.190 45 0 100.0 20 CHW AL 6 5 2.25 68


One thing that pushes Forster to the top of my list of relief pitchers is his hitting. Terry Forster was a crazy-good hitter. In 1972, he only had 22 plate appearances, but he hit .526/.550/.526 and he even stole a base! Not enough to make my ballot, but his hitting is definitely worth taking into account.
   20. DL from MN Posted: April 24, 2012 at 01:11 PM (#4114739)
More Morgan v. Bench - Bench had the better postseason. Morgan had a great NLDS and not a good WS. Bench did well in both playoff series. That's what it takes to separate them for me.
   21. SoCalDemon Posted: April 24, 2012 at 05:32 PM (#4115093)
This is probably going to look like a mess, but:
Rank Final Name (pos) PA/Inn bWAR bWAR/650_200 Stats OPS/ERA+ Fldg Runs Adjustment
1 10.41 Steve Carlton (P) 346 12.4 7.17 3.56 (+41) 182
2 9.99 Johnny Bench (C) 653 9.1 9.06 .270/.379/.541 166 13 10%
3 9.83 Joe Morgan (2B) 680 10 9.56 .292/.417/.435 149 7
4 9.54 Dick Allen (1B) 609 9.3 9.93 .308/.420/.603 199 -1
(big gap)
5 8.76 Gaylord Perry (P) 342 10.4 6.08 2.85 (+17) 170
6 8.6 Carlton Fisk (C) 514 7.1 8.98 .293/.370/.538 162 1 10%
7 8.33 Cesar Cedeno (CF) 625 8.2 8.53 .320/.385/.537 162 2
(big gap)
8 7.31 Wilbur Wood (P) 377 8.9 4.72 2.61 (-7) 126
9 7.24 Bob Gibson (P) 278 8.1 5.83 2.36 (+68) 139
10 7.08 Bobby Murcer (CF) 654 7.1 7.06 .292/.361/.537 169 2
11 7.07 Chris Speier (SS) 658 6.1 6.03 .269/.361/.400 115 9 +1
12 6.81 Bobby Grich (SS/2B/1B) 528 5.8 7.14 .278/.358/.415 127 10 +0.5
13 6.79 Jim Wynn (RF) 652 6.1 6.08 .273/.389/.470 146 -7 (0) +0.7
(gap)
14 6.5 Billy Williams (LF) 650 6 6 .333/.398/.606 171 -10 (-5) +0.5
15 6.18 Reggie Jackson (CF/LF) 573 5.5 6.24 .265/.350/473 149 0 (+5) +0.4
16 6.14 Joe Rudi (LF) 653 5.9 5.87 .305/.345/.486 151 +3 (+8) +.25
17 6.05 Mike Epstein (1B) 537 5.6 6.78 .270/.376/.490 163 1
18 6.03 Pete Rose (LF) 731 6.3 5.6 .307/.382/.407 134 12
19 5.99 Claude Osteen (P) 252 6.5 5.16 1.45 (+102) 127
20 5.96 John Matlack (P) 244 6.4 5.25 2.38 (+9) 145
21 5.65 Bill Freehan (C) 430 4.3 6.5 .262/.354/.401 122 1 10%
22 5.56 Tony Perez (1B) 576 5.3 5.98 .283/.349/.497 145 5
23 5.5 Nolan Ryan (P) 284 6.2 4.37 2.10 (+10) 128
24 5.47 Ferguson Jenkins (P) 289 6.2 4.29 2.97 (+25) 119
25 5.46 Tom Seaver (P) 262 6 4.58 3.23 (+41) 115
26 5.41 Carlos May (LF) 615 5.1 5.39 .308/.405/.438 148 -10 (-8)
27 5.36 Mike Marshall (RP) 116 4.2 7.24 2.02 198
28 5.34 Phil Niekro (P) 282 6 4.26 3.09 (+24) 124
29 5.21 Tug McGraw (RP) 106 3.9 7.36 2.3 198
30 5.21 Don Sutton (P) 273 5.8 4.25 3.29 (-9) 162
   22. SoCalDemon Posted: April 24, 2012 at 05:45 PM (#4115106)
I base my rankings primarily on bWAR. I use a weighted average of 62% bWAR and 38% bWAR per 650AB/200 Innings (to get better at "dominance", which dings guys like Lolich last year or Wilber Wood this year, and helps catchers and relief pitchers; why 62/38; no reason, just looks right intuitively; last year used 50/50 to try to drop the pitchers from the top [didnt work; they had workload and dominance], but this year that dropped Carlton to 3rd, and Gaylord Perry to 9th, and put Fisk at 4th, which just didnt look right).

I then make adjustments:
10% for catchers; even though the per 650AB adjustment helps them, I still think it is not enough, and it seems that getting 653AB out of Bench is really, really valuable; again, no real reason for 10% specifically, I just think bWar undervalues catchers, even with the positional adjustment [I think a 7 win/500AB catcher like Fisk is in the same league as a ~9 win player at any other position]

+1 win for shortstops (70s only), based on DanR's work - having a 115 OPS+ in 1972 from SS was really damned good. (half win adjustment for Grich, who SS half the year)

Adjusting fielding numbers that are totally out of whack with the previous 1 and subsequent 1 years (more than +/- 5 from both years), under the assumption that fielding has a lot of noise, but that three years of data is valuable. In general, however, I do think the bWar fielding numbers pass the smell test. Upwardly adjusted Wynn, Williams, Jackson, Rudi, and May.

Do not look at postseason (seems unfair to Ernie Banks and company). Do not have a league strength adjustment; I thought that the AL had mostly closed the gap; is this true; if not would want to include it.
   23. SoCalDemon Posted: April 24, 2012 at 05:51 PM (#4115110)
Also, I do not take these numbers as gospel (last year had Jenkins ahead of Seaver, but the more I dug, the more I liked Seaver, and ended up putting him ahead), but so far these numbers seem to match up with my intuition. However, within the tiers, I could see a bit of movement if there is a good argument for it.
   24. SoCalDemon Posted: April 24, 2012 at 05:52 PM (#4115111)
Dan G, thanks for having the reliever numbers again; I would have missed Marshall and McGraw, which would have been a shame, because they were lights out that year.

EDIT: And Kiko, thanks for that explanation! Makes sense to me (I have Bench ahead still, but they are so close, that really any slight change with assumptions will flip them); and wow, did the 70s have lousy infielders!
   25. bjhanke Posted: April 26, 2012 at 05:01 AM (#4116619)
Huh. What do you know. My alleged memory of this time actually kicked something out, although the memory is from two years later. This is the beginning of the Mike Marshall "I'm a kinesthesiologist" period. Most of you will remember this, but for those who don't, Dodger reliever Mike Marshall actually has a college degree in kinesthesiology, which I have probably spelled wrong, but which means "the science of body movement." Marshall got it into his head that his knowledge would allow him to work with his body in a way that would allow him to pitch unheard of numbers of innings and games for a reliever. 1972 here is really the beginning of the Dodgers' enabling this. The high point is 1974, when Marshall pitched in 106 games. His arm then promptly fell off, putting an end to the experiment, although I would imagine that people still use knowledge from this field of study. For the next few years, he should be taken seriously as a MMP candidate. - Brock
   26. TomH Posted: April 26, 2012 at 08:33 AM (#4116650)
re: Morgan/Bench, and tablesetters vs cleanup men in general.

Morgan had 680 PA to Bench's 653 (adv = 27 PA). This is primarily a function of batting order.

Studies and tradition have said it is optimal to place your best hitters at spots 1 thru 4; those spots are roughly equal in importance. Leadoff hitters will get 1/3 more PA (about 6% more) per game than #4 batters. =54 PA over 162 games. But overall, their valou eis the same. This is because the #4 batters PAs are about 6% more valuable PER PA than the leadoff man's (since, you know, they have more guys on base when they hit, which is why Bench had 50+ more RBI).

I suspect Bench's WAR or WS or whatever ought to be increased relative to Morgan's so that their EFFECTIVE offensive time (PA) is roughly equal.
   27. Howie Menckel Posted: April 26, 2012 at 09:14 AM (#4116670)

"The high point is 1974, when Marshall pitched in 106 games."

It's not the games, which for some reason everyone talks about.
It's the innings.
208.3 innings, all in relief. In one season.

Plenty of relievers these days pitch in more than half as many games.
But half as many innings?
   28. DL from MN Posted: April 26, 2012 at 11:30 AM (#4116776)
Postseason performances: ALCS

Player G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
Campaneris 2 7 3 3 0 0 0 0 1 0 .429 .556 .429 .984
Epstein 5 16 1 3 0 0 1 1 4 5 .188 .381 .375 .756
Reggie 5 18 1 5 1 0 0 2 1 6 .278 .316 .333 .649
Bando 5 20 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 3 .200 .200 .200 .400
Rudi 5 20 1 5 1 0 0 2 1 4 .250 .273 .300 .573

Freehan 3 12 2 3 1 0 1 3 0 1 .250 .250 .583 .833

Pitcher G GS ERA W L SV CG IP H ER BB SO WHIP
Hunter 2 2 1.17 0 0 0 0 15.1 10 2 5 9 0.978

Lolich 2 2 1.42 0 1 0 0 19.0 14 3 5 10 1.000
   29. DL from MN Posted: April 26, 2012 at 12:24 PM (#4116827)
NLCS

Player G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
Rose 5 20 1 9 4 0 0 2 1 2 .450 .476 .650 1.126
Bench 5 18 3 6 1 1 1 2 1 3 .333 .350 .667 1.017
Morgan 5 19 5 5 0 0 2 3 1 2 .263 .300 .579 .879
Tolan 5 21 3 5 1 1 0 4 0 4 .238 .238 .381 .619
Perez 5 20 0 4 1 0 0 2 0 7 .200 .200 .250 .450

Clemente 5 17 1 4 1 0 1 2 3 5 .235 .350 .471 .821
Hebner 5 16 2 3 1 0 0 1 1 3 .188 .278 .250 .528
Stargell 5 16 1 1 1 0 0 1 2 5 .063 .167 .125 .292
   30. DL from MN Posted: April 26, 2012 at 01:57 PM (#4116893)
World Series

Player G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
Rudi 7 25 1 6 0 0 1 1 2 5 .240 .321 .360 .681
Bando 7 26 2 7 1 0 0 1 2 5 .269 .321 .308 .629
Campaneris 7 28 1 5 0 0 0 0 1 4 .179 .207 .179 .385
Epstein 6 16 1 0 0 0 0 0 5 3 .000 .238 .000 .238


Perez 7 23 3 10 2 0 0 2 4 4 .435 .500 .522 1.022
Bench 7 23 4 6 1 0 1 1 5 5 .261 .393 .435 .828
Rose 7 28 3 6 0 0 1 2 4 4 .214 .313 .321 .634
Tolan 7 26 2 7 1 0 0 6 1 4 .269 .296 .308 .604
Morgan 7 24 4 3 2 0 0 1 6 3 .125 .300 .208 .508

Pitcher G GS ERA W L SV CG IP H ER BB SO WHIP
Hunter 3 2 2.81 2 0 0 0 16.0 12 5 6 11 1.125

   31. Rob_Wood Posted: April 28, 2012 at 12:50 AM (#4118281)
Prelim ballot

1. Steve Carlton - one of the best seasons in the modern era
2. Joe Morgan - a smidge ahead of Bench due to Morgan's better WPA stats
3. Johnny Bench - great season for a great defensive catcher
4. Dick Allen - led league in most offensive stats in his first AL season
5. Gaylord Perry - 343 IP with a 1.92 ERA is pretty darned good
6. Cesar Cedeno - great offensive season in Astrodome
7. Wilbur Wood - 377 IP and 49 games started (most GS since Jack Chesbro in 1904)
8. Bobby Murcer - his best season
9. Carlton Fisk - great rookie season
10. Chris Speier - good hitting stats in an era of woeful shortstops

11. Billy Williams - led NL in SLG, OPS+, BAvg, and WPA
12. Mickey Lolich - 327 IP with 2.50 ERA
13. Jimmy Wynn - another great season largely masked by Astrodome
14. Bob Gibson - last of his great seasons
15. Joe Rudi - memorable WS catch was memorable
16. Pete Rose - strike cost him 200 hits
17. Bobby Grich - an all around very good season
18. Don Sutton - led NL with 9 shutouts
19. Jim Hunter - Oakland was 28-9 in his starts
20. John Mayberry - first season with the Royals

21-25. Willie Stargell, Richie Hebner, Carlos May, Jon Matlack, Reggie Jackson

26-30. Willie Davis, Nolan Ryan, Mike Epstein, Nate Colbert, Tom Seaver
   32. Jay Z Posted: April 28, 2012 at 02:04 AM (#4118304)
HM. Bobby Tolan, Tony Oliva, Bob Gibson, Carlos May, Lee May, Claude Osteen


Oliva? He played in 10 games?!?
   33. Mr. C Posted: April 29, 2012 at 10:21 AM (#4118923)
I was quite surprised to find when I finished analyzing both leagues that the top four players were pitchers;
1. Steve Carlton was head and shoulders above anyone else.
2 and 3. Gaylord Perry and Wilbur Wood. Perry's raw stats were certainly superior to Wood's, but Perry played in front of an above average defense, while the White Sox were probably the poorest defense in the league, leaving both pitchers almost equal (Wood's adj W% was .668 and Perry's was .671). The question then becomes whether Wood's quantity is enough to put him ahead of Perry.
4. Bob Gibson A very solid season. Good hitting puts him ahead of the best position players.
The rest of the list is very consistent with the other lists
5. Johnny Bench
6. Joe Morgan
7. Dick Allen
8. Ceasar Cedeno
10 Catfish Hunter
11. Carlton Fisk
12. Pete Rose

13 to 16 Chris Speier, Mickey Lolich, Luis Tiant, Don Sutton
17, 18 Billy Williams, Roy White
19, 20 Rick Wise, Ferguson Jenkins
   34. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: April 29, 2012 at 11:49 AM (#4118961)
No postseason bonus, blend of WS and WAR, with a catcher bonus.

1. Steve Carlton
2. Johnny Bench -- Substantial bonus for playing essentially every day at C.
3. Joe Morgan -- led league in OBP
4. Gaylord Perry -- AL's best pitcher; astoundingly, not far off Carlton's pace
5. Dick Allen
6. Wilbur Wood -- expected to put Gibson in this spot, but the IP advantage is too huge
7. Bob Gibson -- last great season
8. Carlton Fisk -- Catcher bonus; played almost as much as Cedeno.
9. Bobby Murcer -- ahead of Cedeno on defense & PT
10. Cesar Cedeno -- Missed some time; won a GG while compiling 0 dWAR -- I'm willing to stipulate that he probably had defensive value not found in the numbers
11. Mickey Lolich
12. Pete Rose! -- played every day; good defender in this period.

Also considered: Wynn, Speier, Rudi, Hunter.
   35. OCF Posted: April 30, 2012 at 02:38 AM (#4119555)
Offense continued its slide. National League team R/G sagged to 3.86, while American League team R/G plummeted all the way to 3.48, which was 1968 levels. A very weird year, and that 3.48 is probably a large part of why the AL adopted the DL rule. The IP loads of the top pitchers remained at levels not routinely seen since before 1920.

Some RA+ equivalent records, with inherited runner adjustments for relief pitchers. Basically "hit like a pitcher" in a fairly unremarkable way unless otherwise noted.

Perry: 27-11
Wood: 25-17, worse hitter than some (yes, it was that many innings)
Hunter: 21-12
Lolich: 22-14
Ryan: 19-12
Tiant: 14-6 (swingman role) (bad hitter)
Lyle: 8-4; 12-6 with inherited runner adjustment

Carlton: 28-10, fairly good hitter
Gibson: 20-11, good hitter (including 5 HR)
Sutton: 20-10, worse hitter than some
Jenkins: 19-13
Matlack: 16-11
Niekro: 18-13
Seaver: 17-12, fairly good hitter
Marshall: 10-3; 14-5 with inherited runner adjustment
McGraw: 8-3; 12-5 with inherited runner adjustment
Brewer: 7-2; 9-4 with inherited runner adjustment (Brewer wasn't all that good with inherited runners)

Yes, Perry also had an amazing year, very nearly up there with Carlton.
   36. DL from MN Posted: May 14, 2012 at 10:45 AM (#4130979)
Feel free to discuss 1972 pop music at this time.
   37. DL from MN Posted: May 14, 2012 at 11:16 AM (#4130998)
Read the Ted Silary article. The only thing that jumped out at me is the GM who traded Rick Wise for Steve Carlton got fired that season.
   38. DL from MN Posted: May 14, 2012 at 04:04 PM (#4131225)
1) Neu!
2) Ziggy Stardust
3) Transformer
3) Exile on Main St
5) Pink Moon
6) On the Corner
7) Ege Bamyasi
8) Harvest
9) Talking Book
10) Music of My Mind
11) Number 1 Record
12) Rocky Mountain High - which I've probably heard more than the rest combined.
   39. Alex meets the threshold for granular review Posted: May 14, 2012 at 05:41 PM (#4131309)
Ege Bamyasi bows to no record, sir.
   40. lieiam Posted: May 14, 2012 at 11:32 PM (#4131604)
I'm still working on my ballot...
Well, more accurately I can say I've finally started working on my ballot.

as for 1972 music, for me it's GOT to be:
The Rise and Fall of Ziggy Stardust and the Spiders From Mars.
No contest.
   41. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: May 15, 2012 at 01:19 AM (#4131614)
I . . . do not like David Bowie.

In no particular order, just yet:

"Pink Moon", Nick Drake
"Harvest", Neil Young
"Exile on Main St", Rolling Stones
"Roxy Music", Roxy Music
"Back Stabbers", O'Jays
"Transformer", Lou Reed

Pop music was still in the grip of the long post-hippie-bullshit fade, struggling to break out, still too in love with its own bloat. "Kick Out the Jams" was four years in the past, "Fun House" had already dropped, but "Raw Power", Johnny Thunders, the Ramones, the New York Dolls, and most of the music that wasn't mind-blowingly awful was still at least a year in the future. The deleterious effects of the Beatles lingered, and nobody had come around to give music a kick in the balls yet.
   42. bjhanke Posted: May 20, 2012 at 04:46 AM (#4136220)
I'm out of the music discussion this year. 1972 was "the year good music died" for me, and I started to wear out my acid rock vinyl with endless replays (I've played three copies of In-a-Gadda-da-Vida to death by needle). Music in 1972 either went folky and soft, or was overproduced (I know that ELP is a genius band, but I can't hear it, so it's just overproduced to me) and, over on AM radio, the horror of disco. Worse, I live in a little hollow and could not get a signal from any local college, so I was completely unaware of the rise of punk, goth and other subgenres that didn't get much mainstream air play. Of all the artists listed so far, the only one I find really listenable in the 1970s is Little Feat, just because they did so much great stuff with rhythms. I do like me that funk, George Clinton and Bootsie Collins. - Brock Hanke
   43. sunnyday2 Posted: May 20, 2012 at 10:00 PM (#4136562)
The deleterious effects of the Beatles


Rank revisionism.
   44. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: May 23, 2012 at 10:43 AM (#4138464)
Going to go with this for now, but I might update it before the election ends:

Prelim (no postseason bonuses)

1) Steve Carlton
2) Gaylord Perry
3) Joe Morgan
4) Johnny Bench
5) Dick Allen
6) Bobby Murcer
7) Bob Gibson
8) Carlton Fisk
9) Cesar Cedeno
10) Billy Williams
11) Pete Rose
12) Wilbur Wood
   45. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: May 23, 2012 at 11:39 AM (#4138512)
Rank revisionism.


It's not revisionism. It's that the Beatles were not that good.
   46. sunnyday2 Posted: May 23, 2012 at 09:18 PM (#4139049)
It's not revisionism. It's that the Beatles were not that good.


It's the very essence of revisionism. "Not that good" is just not a factual observation. It is a minority opinion. For 48 years the consensus is they're the greatest. It doesn't even matter if they were (the greatest) or no. History says they were. Revisionists say no they're not. You can look it up.

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