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Thursday, May 24, 2012

Most Meritorious Player: 1973 Discussion

The introduction of the DH is the big story for 1973. The Orioles, Athletics, Reds and Mets made the playoffs with the A’s repeating in the World Series over the Mets.

Voting will end on June 20th 2012.

Player 			SH Win	BB-ref
        		Shares	WAR
Joe Morgan		39.6	9.1
Darrell Evans		31.6	8.9
Bobby Grich		27.9	8.0
Willie Stargell		36.0	7.0
Thurman Munson		26.9	6.9
Cesar Cedeno		29.7	7.2
Pete Rose		33.0	8.2
Bobby Bonds		31.6	7.7
Joe Ferguson		26.8	4.8
Ken Singleton		27.0	5.5
Willie Crawford		23.8	5.1
Reggie Jackson		31.2	7.4
Reggie Smith		23.2	4.8
Bert Campaneris		18.6	4.3
Rod Carew		28.5	6.7
Sal Bando		30.6	6.1
Frank Robinson		25.6	4.4
Ted Simmons		28.1	5.3
Johnny Bench		26.8	4.5
Bob Watson		27.0	4.5
Amos Otis		29.3	3.7
Henry Aaron		20.3	4.5
Bobby Murcer		25.0	4.7
Tony Perez		31.3	5.1
John Mayberry		31.1	4.9
Bill North		23.8	6.7
George Scott		23.8	6.3


Pitchers
Tom Seaver		28.6	10.7
Bert Blyleven		28.7	9.4
Nolan Ryan		28.0	7.4
Gaylord Perry		24.6	7.4
John Hiller		30.8	7.9
Bill Lee		24.4	5.8
Jim Palmer		27.2	5.9
Steve Rogers		15.5	4.9
Steve Renko		21.2	5.3
Wayne Twitchell		20.8	5.8
Bill Singer		23.4	5.6
Wilbur Wood		23.3	7.2
Don Sutton		22.2	5.1
Mike Marshall		21.9	3.2
Stan Bahnsen		17.6	5.9
Rick Reuschel		19.8	5.2
DL from MN Posted: May 24, 2012 at 12:40 PM | 66 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. DL from MN Posted: May 24, 2012 at 12:50 PM (#4139341)
First item on the agenda - Steve Rogers pretty much demands an MLE for the first half of the season where he threw 100 very good innings in the minors.

   2. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: May 24, 2012 at 12:59 PM (#4139343)
Anyone want to give me insight as to the discrepancy b/w WAR and Win Shares for Seaver & Blyleven? WS has Morgan as clearly the most valuable player in the league; WAR has both pitchers ahead of him, Seaver by a fair margin.
   3. DL from MN Posted: May 24, 2012 at 01:05 PM (#4139348)
It's not just that, Win Shares has John Hiller ahead of Seaver and Blyleven.
   4. Srul Itza Posted: May 24, 2012 at 02:22 PM (#4139420)
Wednesday, October 10, 1973: 5th Game of the NLCS, I am walking past my dormitory (Bexley) when a friend calls down to invite me to watch the game. This is my first semester at MIT, and not coincidentally, this is the first I even know that the Mets are in the NLCS.

The game is then interrupted for a small news flash: Spiro Agnew has just resigned.

Ah, good times.


   5. Kiko Sakata Posted: May 24, 2012 at 02:39 PM (#4139438)
Anyone want to give me insight as to the discrepancy b/w WAR and Win Shares for Seaver & Blyleven?


I think it's that Win Shares ties to total team wins and WAR doesn't. This is sort of the signature season for Blyleven's reputation of pitching "just well enough to lose". The Twins were 5 games under Pythag that season. They had a team OPS+ of 104 (4th in Runs/gm); Blyleven was 2nd in ERA, 4th in IP, and all of that only translated to a W-L record of 20-17.

I calculate Player won-lost records both ways. Tying player records to team records, I have Seaver beating Blyleven in wins over replacement level (pWORL) 5.6 - 4.3. Neutralizing context, I have Blyleven just beating Seaver, 5.0 - 4.9 (in eWORL - regular season only).
   6. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: May 24, 2012 at 05:33 PM (#4139574)
Thanks, Kiko.
   7. SoCalDemon Posted: May 24, 2012 at 06:30 PM (#4139611)
My (very) preliminary ballot:
Rank 67/33 WAR Name bWAR AB/IP OPS/ERA+ Stats Fldg WAR/(650or200)
1a 9.60 Tom Seaver (P) 10.7 290 175 ERA+ 3.92 SO/BB 28 OPS+ 7.38
1b 8.89 Joe Morgan (2B) 9.1 698 154 OPS+ .290/.406/.493 11 8.47
Hard to pick between Seaver and Morgan
2a 8.57 Darrell Evans (3B+) 8.9 733 156 OPS+ .281/.403/.556 18 7.89
2b 8.21 Bert Blyleven (P) 9.4 325 156 ERA+ 3.85 SO/BB __ 5.78
Equally hard to pick between Blyleven and Evans. Blyleven is only the smallest notch below Seaver
5 9.45 John Hiller (RP) 7.9 125.3 283 ERA+ 3.18 SO/BB __ 12.61
What the hell to do with Hiller? Originally, my system said he had the best season; after tweaking to make innings count more, was still second, which doesn't pass the smell test at the moment. But I really could see an argument for him being anywhere from first (if you really believed he packed 8 real wins into 125 innings) to off-ballot (so many pitchers had so much bulk this year). SO, tentatively, I have him 5th, but what a strange year; I don't see why Win SHares and WAR like him, but they certainly agree.
6 7.83 Pete Rose (LF) 8.2 752 152 OPS+ .338/.401/.437 20 7.09
(gap)
7 7.51 Cesar Cedeno (CF) 7.2 576 152 OPS+ .320/.376/.537 9 8.13
8 7.45 Thurman Munson (C)* 6.9 (6.5) 576 142 OPS+ .301/.362/.487 9 (5) 7.34 10% bonus
(gap)
9 7.16 Willie Stargell (LF) 7 609 186 OPS+ .299/.392/.646 3 7.47
10 7.08 Reggie Jackson (RF)* 7.4 (7.0) 629 161 OPS+ .293/.383/.531 10 (6) 7.23
11 7.01 Bobby Bonds (RF)* 7.7 (7.3) 738 143 OPS+ .283/.370/.530 14 (10) 6.43
(gap)
12 6.68 Rod Carew (2B) 6.7 657 142 OPS+ .350/.411/.471 -1 6.63
13 6.46 Nolan Ryan (P) 7.4 326 123 ERA+ 2.36 SO/BB __ 4.54
14 6.38 Gaylord Perry (P) 7.4 344 117 ERA+ 2.07 SO/BB __ 4.3
15 6.35 Bobby Grich (2B)* 8.0 (6.5) 700 116 OPS+ .251/.373/.387 29 (14) 6.04
16 6.28 Sal Bando (3B)* 6.1 (6.4) 690 150 OPS+ .287/.375/.498 -7 (-4) 6.03
17 6.23 George Scott (1B) 6.3 673 144 OPS+ .306/.370/.488 14 6.08
18 6.18 Wayne Twitchell (P) 6.4 223 152 ERA+ 1.71 SO/BB -39 OPS+ 5.74
19 6.15 Wilber Wood (P) 7.2 359 116 ERA+ 2.19 SO/BB __ 4.01
(gap) I could see any of the guys from 12-19 getting the final spot
20 5.47 Joe Ferguson (C+) 4.8 585 136 OPS+ .263/.369/.470 -2 5.33 10 % bonus
21 5.42 Bill North (CF) 6.7 (5.4) 642 110 OPS+ .285/.376/.348 25 (12) 5.47
22 5.39 Ken Singleton (RF) 5.5 692 148 OPS+ .302/.425/.479 3 5.17
23 5.33 Stan Bahnsen (P) 5.9 282 113 ERA+ 1.03 SO/BB __ 4.18
24 5.3 Reggie Smith (CF) 4.8 495 150 OPS+ .303/.398/.515 4 6.3
25 5.27 Jim Palmer (P) 5.9 296 155 ERA+ 1.40 SO/BB __ 3.99
26 5.23 Bill Lee (P) 5.8 285 146 ERA+ 1.58 SO/BB __ 4.07
27 5.18 Ted Simmons (C)* 5.3 (4.8) 690 124 OPS+ .310/.370/.438 7 (2) 4.52 10% bonus
28 4.95 Johnny Bench (C) 4.5 651 119 OPS+ .253/.345/.429 8 4.49 10% bonus
29 4.79 Willie Crawford (RF)* 5.1 (4.5) 543 140 OPS+ .295/.396/.453 12 (6) 5.39

Same system as last year, except went to a 67/33 split of bWAR and bWAR/(650AB or 200 innings)
All of the * players were adjusted because their defensive ratings was out of whack with surrounding years.
   8. DL from MN Posted: May 25, 2012 at 12:20 PM (#4140021)
Prelim ballot - haven't considered postseason yet

1) Joe Morgan
2) Tom Seaver
3) Darrell Evans
4) Bert Blyleven
5) Bobby Grich
6) Rod Carew
7) Willie Stargell
8) Joe Ferguson (someone NOT in the HoM!)
9) Nolan Ryan
10) Thurman Munson
11) Gaylord Perry
12) Cesar Cedeno
13-15) Bill Lee, Jim Palmer, Pete Rose
16-20) Bobby Bonds, Ken Singleton, Steve Rogers, Willie Crawford, Henry Aaron

I need to run Steve Rogers through an MLE calculator but I don't have a 1973 version so I haven't given him credit for his minor league work. Here are stats:

Team IP ERA K BB
Montreal 134.0 1.54 64 49
Peninsula 29.0 1.86 22 8
Quebec 77.0 2.69 ?? 33

Today I learned that there was once a team called the Peninsula Whips. Going to be hard to do an MLE without his AA strikeout numbers.
   9. sunnyday2 Posted: May 25, 2012 at 12:48 PM (#4140047)
1. Willie Stargell 189 OPS+
2. Reggie Jackson 165 OPS+
3. Joe Morgan 157 OPS+
4. Pete Rose 139 OPS+
5. Tom Seaver 174 ERA+
6. Bobby Bonds 141 OPS+
7. Sal Bando 153 OPS+
8. Tony Perez 162 OPS+
9. Darrell Evans 153 OPS+
10. John Hiller 156 ERA+

11. Jim Palmer 156 ERA+
12. Cesar Cedeno 151 OPS+

13. Bert Blyleven 157 ERA+
14. Rod Carew 143 OPS+
15. George Scott 144 OPS+
   10. DL from MN Posted: May 25, 2012 at 12:52 PM (#4140049)
1973 NLCS

Hitter G  AB  R  H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO  BA  OBP  SLG  OPS
Seaver 2  6  1  2  2  0  0  1  1  1  .333  .429  .667  1.095

Bench 5  19  1  5  2  0  1  1  2  3  .263  .333  .526  .860
Morgan 5  20  1  2  1  0  0  1  2  2  .100  .182  .150  .332  
Rose 5  21  3  8  1  0  2  2  2  2  .381  .435  .714  1.149  
Perez 5  22  1  2  0  0  1  2  0  4  .091  .091  .227  .318

Pitcher G  GS  ERA  W  L  SV  CG  IP  H  ER  BB  SO  WHIP
Seaver 2  2  1.62  1  1  0  1  16.2  13  3  5  17  1.080  

   11. DL from MN Posted: May 25, 2012 at 01:15 PM (#4140069)
1973 ALCS

Hitter G  AB  R  H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO  BA  OBP  SLG  OPS
Bando 5  18  2  3  0  0  2  3  3  6  .167  .318  .500  .818
Campy 5  21  3  7  1  0  2  3  2  2  .333  .391  .667  1.058
Reggie 5  21  0  3  0  0  0  0  0  6  .143  .143  .143  .286

Grich 5  20  1  2  0  0  1  1  2  5  .100  .182  .250  .432  

Pitcher G  GS  ERA  W  L  SV  CG  IP  H  ER  BB  SO  WHIP  
Hunter 2  2  1.65  2  0  0  1  16.1  12  3  5  6  1.041

Palmer 3  2  1.84  1  0  0  1  14.2  11  3  8  15  1.295


   12. DL from MN Posted: May 25, 2012 at 01:18 PM (#4140074)
1973 WS
Hitter G  AB  R  H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO  BA  OBP  SLG  OPS
Bando 7  26  5  6  1  1  0  1  4  7  .231  .333  .346  .679
Campy 7  31  6  9  0  1  1  3  1  7  .290  .353  .452  .805
Reggie 7  29  3  9  3  1  1  6  2  7  .310  .355  .586  .941

Seaver 2  5  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  2  .000  .000  .000  .000

Pitcher G  GS  ERA  W  L  SV  CG  IP  H  ER  BB  SO  WHIP
Seaver 2  2  2.40  0  1  0  0  15.0  13  4  3  18  1.067  

Hunter 2  2  2.03  1  0  0  0  13.1  11  3  4  6  1.125
   13. SoCalDemon Posted: May 25, 2012 at 06:22 PM (#4140316)
Sunnyday, I have John Hiller for 1973 as having 125 innings of 283 ERA+; am i off there?

DL, out of curiosity, what puts Ferguson above Munson for you?
   14. Kiko Sakata Posted: May 25, 2012 at 07:33 PM (#4140373)
I have John Hiller for 1973 as having 125 innings of 283 ERA+; am i off there?


That's what BB-Ref shows.

This has nothing to do with 1973, but in 1974, John Hiller went 17-14 in 59 games, all in relief. He had 31 win-loss decisions in 59 relief appearances. That's insane!

Tying it back to 1973, Hiller has an exceptionally high ratio of games finished to total games (60 of 65 in '73, 52 of 59 in '74, 34 of 36 in '75) and what strikes me as a very high number of decisions (W-L-Sv) relative to games finished (53 in 60 in '73, 45 in 52 in '74). That's just a way of using a relief pitcher that seems completely foreign to what is done these days.

And, consequently, I'm not entirely sure how to evaluate that. Hiller will definitely make my ballot and could be as high as #3, but I'm just not entirely comfortable where to put him.

Mike Marshall is the other guy whose usage is so unusual as to give me trouble. In 1973, he pitched 179 innings in relief (it only gets worse in 1974, of course). The problem with that is that I'm not sure it makes sense to think of A replacement pitcher pitching 179 relief innings - guys capable of pitching 179 relief innings at any level of quality in a 162-game season aren't freely available; there was just the one guy. Does it matter, then, that in order to "replace" Marshall, you'd have to replace him with 3 separate replacement-level pitchers? I feel like I might have undersold Wilbur Wood's ridiculous IP totals in 1971-72 for the same reason.
   15. DanG Posted: May 26, 2012 at 12:13 AM (#4140606)
Team IP ERA K BB
Montreal 134.0 1.54 64 49
Peninsula 29.0 1.86 22 8
Quebec 77.0 2.69 ?? 33

Today I learned that there was once a team called the Peninsula Whips. Going to be hard to do an MLE without his AA strikeout numbers.
The Baseball Register shows Rogers with 64 strikeouts for Quebec City in 1973.
   16. DL from MN Posted: May 26, 2012 at 10:29 AM (#4140660)
Will look into Ferguson v. Munson next week when I have my spreadsheet handy.

Anyone want to help me through a 1973 specific MLE for Rogers? I usually translate through the free ones but I don't think they're necessarily appropriate for a specific year.
   17. DanG Posted: May 26, 2012 at 01:25 PM (#4140739)
The WAR view from the bullpen in 1973:

Rk            Player WAR ERASV   WPA  WHIP GF GS    IP Age  Tm Lg  G  W  L  ERA OPS+
1        John Hiller 7.9  283 38 8.410 1.021 60  0 125.1  30 DET AL 65 10  5 1.44   48
2      Terry Forster 4.4  124 16 1.187 1.459 29 12 172.2  21 CHW AL 51  6 11 3.23   86
3          Cy Acosta 4.0  181 18 4.265 1.082 42  0  97.0  26 CHW AL 48 10  6 2.23   60
4     Lindy McDaniel 3.0  129 10 2.844 1.229 32  3 160.1  37 NYY AL 47 12  6 2.86   88
5      Randy Moffitt 2.9  160 14 0.670 1.166 34  0 100.1  24 SFG NL 60  4  4 2.42   75
6      Mike Marshall 2.9  142 31 2.138 1.330 73  0 179.0  30 MON NL 92 14 11 2.66   88
7         Fred Beene 2.8  219  1 1.430 1.033 11  4  91.0  30 NYY AL 19  6  0 1.68   63
8          Doug Bird 2.7  136 20 1.346 1.085 41  0 102.1  23 KCR AL 54  4  4 2.99   68
9         Ray Corbin 2.6  130 14 1.452 1.240 28  7 148.1  24 MIN AL 51  8  5 3.03   72
10       Dave Giusti 2.5  149 20 2.994 1.277 60  0  98.2  33 PIT NL 67  9  2 2.37   90
11        Bob Locker 2.5  155 18 2.012 1.298 43  0 106.1  35 CHC NL 63 10  6 2.54   81
12      Bob Reynolds 2.5  191  9 1.211 1.072 28  1 111.0  26 BAL AL 42  7  5 1.95   59
13      Pedro Borbon 2.4  159 14 2.406 1.421 36  0 121.0  26 CIN NL 80 11  4 2.16  115
14     Grant Jackson 2.0  196  9 2.027 0.971 33  0  80.1  30 BAL AL 45  8  0 1.90   52
15   Ramon Hernandez 1.9  147 11 1.704 1.071 33  0  89.2  32 PIT NL 59  4  5 2.41   68 
   18. OCF Posted: May 27, 2012 at 02:48 PM (#4141239)
A look at some of the pitchers, using RA+ equivalent records:

From 1972 to 1973, the AL experienced one of the largest one-year jumps in offense, all the way from 3.48 R/G in 1972 to 4.30 R/G in 1973. The adoption of the DH rule accounts for some of the change, but cannot by itself account for all of that change. You could compare back to 1971, in which the AL scored 3.89 R/G and realize that AL 1972 is a very strange fluke year.

In the NL, with no such rule changes, scoring increased from 3.89 to 4.15.

One thing the DH rule causes: there's now no need to comment on what kind of hitter any AL pitcher was. (And, since I had to look, Terry Forster had one PA and went 0 for 1.)

Blyeleven: 24-12
Palmer: 23-10 (but this is without attempting to adjust for his defensive support, which was great)
Ryan: 22-14
Perry: 22-16
Wood: 21-18
Hiller: 12-2; with inherited runner adjustment, 19-3
Forster: 12-8; with inherited runner adjustment, 15-9
Acosta: 8-3; with inherited runner adjustment, 11-5

Seaver: 23-9 (decent hitter)
Sutton: 19-10
Twitchell: 17-8 (bad hitter)
Koosman: 18-11 (fairly bad hitter)
Reuschel: 16-11 (fairly bad hitter)
Marshall: 13-7; with inherited runner adjustment, 19-10 (good hitter)
Moffitt: 8-3; with inherited runner adjustment, 10-5 (bad hitter)

OK, I've known for a while that I was overdoing it with the inherited runner adjustment and making it too big. If I take that adjustment at face value, I have Hiller having a better year than either Seaver or Blyleven, and Marshall having as good a year as Sutton, and I don't really believe either of those. But Hiller was fantastically effective against inherited runners, about the best I've seen. It may be that top-5 placements for Hiller aren't silly after all.

The age of the 300+ inning pitcher was still going strong, but it was now mostly an AL phenomenon.

I note that Randy Moffitt is from my adopted home town. (Of course, I didn't move there myself until 1984.) Long Beach Poly HS, CSU Long Beach for college. Oh, and he's considerably less famous in the sporting world than his sister.
   19. lieiam Posted: May 27, 2012 at 03:07 PM (#4141244)
If I had previously known that Billy Jean King and Randy Moffitt were brother and sister that knowledge is completely gone. I read the previous line and was puzzled and had to hop over to Wikipedia to look up Randy Moffitt. I was very surprised!
   20. SoCalDemon Posted: May 28, 2012 at 10:01 PM (#4141896)
DL,
Regarding giving Steve Rogers credit for his minor league work, is there a narrative to support this? It seems like pitching a fantastic half a year in the minors and then getting the call-up happens several times every year (although continuing to pitch at a very high level in the bigs is significantly less common). Is there evidence that he was kept down for an abnormally long time? Or was there discussion in earlier MMP elections that minor league campaigns should count in any case, if they are good enough?
   21. bjhanke Posted: May 29, 2012 at 07:36 AM (#4141992)
No, the narrative doesn't support MLE for '73, which kind of surprised me. What happened was that Steve got assigned to AAA right out of college and wasn't ready, either in 1971 or 72. They dropped him down to AA to start out 73, and it worked immediately. His ERA dropped from about 4 to about 2.60. However, he wasn't winning games, for some reason. After a few games of this, he got back to AAA, and was was obviously MLB ready, with an ERA of about 1.69 in four starts. That got him to the bigs, and he stuck. But asking the Expos to realize that he would be ready at the start of 1973 is asking too much. He hadn't shown enough in his previous two years at AAA. Like I said, a surprise. One would think that, with the MLB numbers he posted in 1973, he should have been better in 1971 and 72. But he just wasn't. - Brock
   22. Mr. C Posted: May 29, 2012 at 09:48 AM (#4142033)
Preliminary Ranking. Use a WAR framework with reduced replacement level (about 60% of normal)

1. Tom Seaver 9.87 WARR By far the best pitcher in the NL. Steve Rogers would certainly fit into that discussion with more innings.
2. Bert Blyleven 9.01 WARR Impressive rate stats over 325 innings. It looks like the DH gave the managers the opportunity to keep the better pitchers in the game longer, but that doesn't explain why they started 40 games. :-)
3 Joe Morgan 7.91 WARR .
4. John Hiller 7.88 WARR An amazing year for a reliever. 1.51 RA (in a league where the RA was 4.30) over 125 innings with a leverage index of 2.3.
5. Darrell Evans 7.08 WARR
6. Pete Rose 6.8 WARR
7. Bobby Bonds 6.62 WARR
8. Nolan Ryan 6.51 WARR
9. Bobby Grich 6.34 WARR The DH raised the overall run scoring in the AL, but it is ironic that the top ranked position player is there because of his fielding
10. Gaylord Perry 6.34
11. Cesar Cedeno 6.21 WARR
12. Reggie Jackson 6.19 WARR

Rest of top 20
Wilbur Wood
Thurman Munson
Willie Stargell
Bill Lee
George Scott
Rod Carew
Joe Coleman
Jim Palmer
   23. DL from MN Posted: May 29, 2012 at 10:08 AM (#4142037)
Why did Rogers only pitch 64 innings in 1972?
   24. DL from MN Posted: May 29, 2012 at 02:11 PM (#4142194)
BTW - from the rules:

"If part of the season was spent outside MLB, that value may be considered as well. However, the player’s on-field contribution should be judged in relation to the highest level major league, not relative to a minor league."
   25. DL from MN Posted: May 29, 2012 at 02:44 PM (#4142219)
Player BWAA2 BRWAA2 FWAA2
Ferguson 3.7 -0.2 0.5
Munson 2.9 0.2 0.5


That's basically it - Dan R thinks Ferguson hit better in 1973. OPS+ is in Munson's favor so I can only assume park/league effects are the root cause. Munson gains back 0.5 WAR in Rep.
   26. bjhanke Posted: May 29, 2012 at 03:21 PM (#4142250)
And, although not a HoM guy himself, Joe Ferguson will be traded for one (Reggie Smith). - Brock
   27. SoCalDemon Posted: May 31, 2012 at 02:30 AM (#4143906)
DL and bjhanke, thanks!
   28. SoCalDemon Posted: May 31, 2012 at 02:45 AM (#4143911)
And Kiko, thanks for the info about Hiller and Marshall; I really don't know what to do with Hiller this year, or Marshall next year (and I just looked up his bWAR, 2.9; I don't believe that for a second, with 208 innings of 141 ERA+ and a leverage index of 1.7; I am more likely to agree with the CY voters).
   29. Kiko Sakata Posted: June 02, 2012 at 06:38 PM (#4146521)
I have my own set of Player won-lost records that I use. I calculate them tied to team wins and without context. Here's my top 25's for 1973, postseason included: pWins (tied to team wins), eWins (context-neutral).

I've moved a bit toward favoring wins over average (what I call WOPA) over wins over replacement level (WORL). I start with the numbers tied to team wins (pWOPA) but look to see where they disagree a lot with the context-neutral numbers. The two players who take the biggest hit from tying player wins to team wins are Bert Blyleven (see comment #5 above; he's #3 in eWOPA, #12 in pWOPA) and Darrell Evans (#4 in eWOPA, #3 in eWORL vs. #25 in pWORL, just below that in pWOPA). They both make my ballot, but lower than they would if I based it purely on context-neutral numbers.

Here's my ballot. The numbers here are pWins - pLosses, pWOPA, pWORL. Comments then follow.

1. Joe Morgan, 27.4 - 17.2, 5.1, 7.3 - best player in MLB no matter how I measure it.
2. Tom Seaver, 21.9 - 16.0, 3.9, 5.7 - strong postseason makes him a fairly clear #2.
3. Nolan Ryan, 23.1 - 15.8, 3.9, 5.7 - there's a bit more clear separation between him and Seaver in eWOPA/eWORL.
4. Reggie Jackson, 25.6 - 17.9, 3.5, 5.7 - best position player in the AL.
5. Bert Blyleven, 19.2 - 14.2, 2.8, 4.3 - better than Ryan in context-neutral; I think team wins really do matter, although not exclusively.
6. Willie Stargell, 25.8 - 17.9, 3.0, 5.2
7. Bobby Bonds, 26.9 - 19.8, 2.8, 5.1
8. Darrell Evans, 20.7 - 15.8, 1.8, 3.6 - he looks much better in context-neutral stats. His context-neutral numbers are based a bit too much on fielding numbers (.534 winning percentage) that are a bit out of line with his career (.503 career fielding winning percentage), which is why I'm not bumping him up any higher than this.
9. John Hiller, 12.6 - 5.2, 3.3, 4.5 - see my comment #14. I've given him a bit of a bonus here, which basically pushes him ahead of Palmer and Sutton.
10. Jim Palmer, 19.3 - 11.9, 3.9, 5.4
11. Don Sutton, 20.0 - 14.7, 3.6, 5.2 - Palmer and Sutton rank 4th and 5th in pWOPA. Both fall somewhat in context-neutral stats. I slide them down here partly because of that and partly because I have starting pitchers ranked 2 - 5 in pWOPA, and I tend to like at least some positional variety in my ballot.
12. Thurman Munson, 16.0 - 13.2, 1.9, 3.3 - best catcher in MLB; the bonus for that is what puts him on the ballot.
   30. DL from MN Posted: June 04, 2012 at 01:29 PM (#4147746)
I think Hiller is going to sneak onto my ballot but won't make it into the top half.
   31. Chris Fluit Posted: June 15, 2012 at 08:22 AM (#4157446)
Any thoughts on relative league strength in 1973?
   32. Chris Fluit Posted: June 15, 2012 at 09:03 AM (#4157473)
1973 Prelim

1. Darrell Evans, Atlanta Braves, 3B: I'll admit that I'm a little surprised too but Evans had a 156 OPS+ and 143 runs created in the better league while playing superior defense at a difficult position. I believe players can have great defensive peaks as much as they can have offensive ones but Evans has such a large lead over Stargell that he takes the top spot even with half of his defensive credit.

2. Willie Stargell, Pittsburgh Pirates, LF:186 OPS+, 136 runs created
3. Joe Morgan, Cincinnati Reds, 2B: 154 OPS+ and 128 runs created with +11 fielding runs
4. Bert Blyleven, Minnesota Twins, P: 158 ERA+ in 325 innings; narrowly beats out Seaver for best pitcher
5. Tom Seaver, New York Mets, P: 175 ERA+ in 290 innings
6. John Hiller, Detroit Tigers, RP: 283 ERA+ in 125 innings; there's a big gap between Blyleven and Seaver at 4 & 5 and Hiller at 6
7. Jim Palmer, Baltimore Orioles, P: 156 ERA+ in 296 innings; I might be Palmer's biggest fan for the second year in a row, probably because I don't ding him for playing in front of a great defense
8. Thurman Munson, New York Yankees, C: 141 OPS+ from behind the dish
9. Wilbur Wood, Chicago White Sox, P: 116 ERA+ in a sick 359 innings pitched
10. Mike Marshall, Montreal Expos, RP: 144 ERA+ in 179 innings (or 142 ERA+ as bb ref has different numbers on the league leader and player page)
11. Rod Carew, Minnesota Twins, 2B: 144 OPS+ and 113 runs created
12. Bobby Bonds, San Francisco Giants, LF: 142 OPS+ and 130 runs created plus positive contributions in the field on the bases

And the next group:
13. Bill Lee, Boston Red Sox, P
14. Gaylord Perry, Cleveland Indians, P
15. Nolan Ryan, California Angels, P
16. Reggie Jackson, Oakland A's, RF
17. Pete Rose, Cincinnati Reds, LF
18. Sal Bando, Oakland A's, 3B
19. Tony Perez, Cincinnati Reds, 1B
20. Cesar Cedeno, Houston Astros, CF
   33. lieiam Posted: June 16, 2012 at 01:18 AM (#4158439)
I've got a question:

So, I just started building my spreadsheet for 1973, plugging in numbers from various systems, and it appears to me that The Baseball Gauge WAR and Baseball Reference WAR are ALMOST completely the same now. I remember that they both made changes... but I didn't realize that they are nearly identical now. I've only plugged in numbers (from both) for players at 6.0 or over... and there are 19 players, 18 of which have exactly the same number, and the 19th player (Pete Rose) is different by 0.1.

Okay, I guess that's not a question so much as a prelude to my question:
Are they supposed to be exactly the same now? I presume not (unless Rose is a mistake). I'll take a look around on line and see if I can find a quick summary explaining their similarities now...
   34. lieiam Posted: June 16, 2012 at 01:22 AM (#4158441)
http://seamheads.com/baseballgauge/blog/?p=223

Okay, that didn't take long to find.
So, apparently, the new system that Baseball Gauge changed to for this season has been replaced by the Baseball Reference WAR system on their site. The address above gives a brief explanation... And I guess Rose's difference is a mistake.
   35. DL from MN Posted: June 16, 2012 at 08:25 AM (#4158478)
About league strength in 1973 - I haven't the foggiest, especially after adding the DH to the AL.
   36. lieiam Posted: June 16, 2012 at 10:24 AM (#4158517)
I'm back to building my spreadsheet this morning, and I notice that the format of address I usually use to get to baseball prospectus info doesn't lead anywhere now.
Anyone know? [Dan G? I believe you were my info source before so I'm hoping you already know]. It's possible this is just a random problem and it will start working again but just in case I figured I'd put this out there and hope for help.
   37. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: June 16, 2012 at 01:08 PM (#4158601)
1. Joe Morgan -- I prefer position players to pitchers as a rule, and Morgan's the best of them.
2. Seaver
3. Blyleven
<but one can't ignore seasons this good altogether>
4. Darrel Evans
5. Stargell
6. Grich
7. Hiller -- weird, great season
8. Stargell
9. Thurman Munson -- c-c-c-catcher bonus!
10. Gaylord Perry
11. Nolan Ryan
12. Bobby Bonds
   38. Kiko Sakata Posted: June 16, 2012 at 06:44 PM (#4158836)
Voxter, I think you have Willie Stargell listed twice (5, 8). Just guessing: is one of them supposed to be Reggie Jackson, maybe?
   39. lieiam Posted: June 16, 2012 at 07:31 PM (#4158868)
Here's my prelim ballot.
This is (hopefully) very prelim as I'm still hoping to add Baseball Prospectus WARP1 into my system but the address I use to get what I need from the site (I'm not a subscriber) no longer works. Aside from that, Baseball Gauge WAR is no longer in my system since they've switched to Baseball Reference WAR which I already include (and don't want to count it twice).

Anyway, here's my list:

1 MORGAN, JOE 9654
2 EVANS, DARRELL 8474
3 HILLER, JOHN 8320
4 SEAVER, TOM 8268
5 STARGELL, WILLIE 8157
6 BLYLEVEN, BERT 7871
7 ROSE, PETE 7524
8 BONDS, BOBBY 7275
9 JACKSON, REGGIE 7162
10 GRICH, BOBBY 7123
11 RYAN, NOLAN 7068
12 CEDENO, CESAR 6944
13 MUNSON, THURMAN 6882
14 CAREW, ROD 6684
15 PALMER, JIM 6560
16 PEREZ, TONY 6343
17 BANDO, SAL 6333
18 PERRY,GAYLORD 6258
19 FERGUSON, JOE 6107
20 SIMMONS, TED 6002
21 MAYBERRY, JOHN 5975
22 LEE, BILL 5944
23 SINGLETON, KEN 5934
24 WOOD, WILBUR 5857

Joe Morgan is up pretty big (at least for now).
I think the pitcher's are hurt compared to my previous system because pitchers usually rate better in WAR(P) systems and now (unless I do end up getting access to bpWARP1 I only have 1 WAR(p) number for pitchers to compare with WS and WSAB. Still... John Hiller number 3!?!?!?! Obviously he had a great season but I did NOT expect him to finish so high. Still, that may change.
   40. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: June 17, 2012 at 05:01 PM (#4159326)
Voxter, I think you have Willie Stargell listed twice (5, 8). Just guessing: is one of them supposed to be Reggie Jackson, maybe?


Thanks for catching that. You're right, it's supposed to be Jackson at 8.
   41. sunnyday2 Posted: June 17, 2012 at 07:02 PM (#4159372)
Best LPs of 1973. Granted the golden age of boomer rock was over but this was pretty good year. Dark Side was on the Billboard top 100 for, what?, 15 years? Grand Wazoo part of the a great run by FZ. And Springsteen and Steely Dan both with their 1st records, all big winners.

1. The Dark Side of the Moon--Pink Floyd
2. Greetings from Asbury Park, N.J.--Bruce Springsteen
3. The Grand Wazoo--Frank Zappa
4. Can’t Buy A Thrill--Steely Dan
5. Countdown to Ecstasy--Steely Dan
6. There Goes Rhymin’ Simon--Paul Simon
7. After the Ball --John Fahey
8. Goodbye Yellow Brick Road--Elton John
9. Blue Ridge Rangers--John Fogerty
10. Tubular Bells--Mike Oldfield

11. Holland--Beach Boys
12. Mark-Almond 73
13. Song for Juli--Jesse Colin Young
14. O Lucky Man!--Alan Price
15. There Is A Breeze--Micheal Johnson

Best Songs. Some total classics at the top of the list, and I remember when Love Lies Bleeding used to be #1 or #2 (behind Free Bird) in all the polls.

1. Us and Them--Pink Floyd
2. The Grand Wazoo--Frank Zappa
3. American Tune--Paul Simon
4. Hard to Be A Saint in the City--Bruce Springsteen
5. Blessed Relief--Frank Zappa
6. I Wish I Knew How It Would Feel to Be Free--John Fahey
7. Brain Damage--Pink Floyd
8. Funeral for a Friend/Love Lies Bleeding--Elton John
9. For You--Bruce Springsteen
10. Home to You--Mark-Almond

11. Ramblin’ Man--Allman Brothers Band
12. The Angel--Bruce Springsteen
13. Reelin’ in the Years--Steely Dan
14. My Old School--Steely Dan
15. Do It Again--Steely Dan

I get it that no everybody loves boomer music, I'm OK with that. I'm happy to hear about what David Bowie fans were listening to in 1973.
   42. DL from MN Posted: June 17, 2012 at 08:46 PM (#4159425)
Hard to disagree with your #1 since it has had such long lasting appeal. I'll throw out Iggy and the Stooges - Raw Power, Led Zep - Houses of the Holy, Who - Quadrophenia, Lou Reed - Berlin, Tom Waits - Closing Time and Can - Future Days as holding up better than Tubular Bells. David Bowie released Aladdin Sane so I'm guessing Bowie fans were satisfied.
   43. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: June 17, 2012 at 09:08 PM (#4159445)
I don't really care for reggae, but Marley did release Catch a Fire in '73.

Dark Side of the Moon may be my least-favorite album of all time. Bloated nonsense. Most of the best work in '73 was done around the edges of popular music: John Prine's Sweet Revenge, the not-yet-popular Springteen's The Wild, the Innocent & the E-Street Shuffle (containing the best song of the year in "Rosalita"), Iggy & the Stooges' Raw Power, Graham Parsons' very country GP, Black Sabbath breaking through with Black Sabbath Bloody Sabbath.
   44. lieiam Posted: June 18, 2012 at 12:51 AM (#4159711)
Musically, not a whole lot in 1973 that I like.
I'll go with Aladdin Sane by David Bowie to top my list.
   45. sunnyday2 Posted: June 18, 2012 at 08:44 AM (#4159767)
Can't argue with The Wild, the Innocent & the E-Street Shuffle. I have always remembered that as a 1974 release but indeed it came out in September 1973. Rosalita is certainly 1 of Bruce's very best. Waits' Closing Time also shoulda been in my top 10, great record. As to bloated nonsense, us Pink Floyd fans thought that meant Black Sabbath. Different strokes.
   46. DL from MN Posted: June 18, 2012 at 08:47 AM (#4159768)
1973 was a good year for Germany. Lots of good Krautrock and Lou Reed's Berlin. Next year Kraftwerk breaks through with Autobahn. Also a good year for the harder stuff with Who, Led Zeppelin and Black Sabbath.

I wish I knew more about Zappa, I get the feeling I'd enjoy it.
   47. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: June 18, 2012 at 08:50 AM (#4159771)
boy this season was highlighted by a lot of very fine players all but forgotten today. players from the 70's get a raw deal in terms of notoriety. just so odd
   48. fra paolo Posted: June 18, 2012 at 11:37 AM (#4159870)
fra paolo's preliminary ballot.

I have roughed this out without my normal system. Instead I used a mix of Win Shares Above Bench and WPA/aLI. I am off on a research trip tomorrow, and during the day travelling I hope to refine some of this, at least. Not sure how reliable internet availability will be for me before Sunday, which is a way of alerting the electors that I may be delayed in putting up a results thread again. Also, if I don't get to the internet before the balloting closes, either move this to the ballot thread or discount it.

Here's the ballot:

1 Stargell
2 Morgan
3 Reggie!
4 Seaver
5 Blylevyn
6 Mayberry
7 Bonds
8 Palmer
9 Rose
10 Perez
11 Cedeno
12 Ryan

I am disappointed that John Hiller only got as high as 14. Darrell Evans was thirteenth man. These are WPA/aLI effects. I will be giving priority to comparing these two to Ryan and Palmer in the case of Hiller and Perez, Rose and Cedeno in the case of Evans.


   49. DL from MN Posted: June 18, 2012 at 12:04 PM (#4159897)
Along with GP, the outlaw country sound came about in 1973 with Willie Nelson's Shotgun Willie and Honky Tonk Heroes by Waylon Jennings.

Personally, my favorite from this year has to be Raw Power.
   50. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: June 18, 2012 at 01:58 PM (#4160041)
Prelim (no post-season bonuses):

1) Joe Morgan
2) Willie Stargell
3) John Hiller
4) Tom Seaver
5) Darrel Evan
6) Reggie Jackson
7) Bert Blyleven
8) Jim Palmer
9) Sal Bando
10) Cesar Cedeno
11) Pete Rose
12) Nolan Ryan
   51. Ziggy Posted: June 18, 2012 at 01:59 PM (#4160043)
Re: #41

1973 was the year Aladdin Sane was released, featuring the immortal track "Time", among other glam goodies. Ziggy Stardust was, of course, still on our turntables, as well. And we were eagerly awaiting Bowie's musical version of Orwell's 1984 which, fortunately, was never finished. But you can hear a couple of the songs that were supposed to belong to it on next year's Diamond Dogs. And if you looked really hard, there were a few demos for other songs from it floating about on bootlegged mix tapes.

T-Rextacy was starting it's downward swing. Tanx was released in 1973, and it simply didn't live up to Electric Warrior or The Slider, released in 1971 and 1972, respectively. We bought it anyway.

Mott the Hoople released Mott in 1973. America was, as usual, behind the curve musically, as Mott placed higher on the charts than did All the Young Dudes (and 1974's The Hoople placed even higher). The glam/English pub rock fusion that MtH plays never really caught on on this side of the pond.
   52. Yardape Posted: June 18, 2012 at 02:13 PM (#4160071)
My prelim ballot - for the baseball, not the music.

1. Bert Blyleven Maybe there was something there that kept him from winning as much as he should have, but I don't see it, so he's my MVP.
2. Tom Seaver Very close to Blyleven.
3. Joe Morgan Best position player in the game.
4. Nolan Ryan Another pitcher, ho-hum.
5. Sal Bando A solid offensive season; using Extrapolated Runs, I have him trailing Morgan by 8 runs, including postseason. (Side note: Bando played in all 174 games this year, the most possible). He was a solid defender on a good defensive team. I know most people have Evans as the top third baseman this year, but Bando's defense moves him ahead for me.
6. Bobby Grich
7. Gaylord Perry
8. Darrell Evans
9. Johnny Bench Bench, Simmons, Ferguson and Munson all seem to be pretty close offensively; defense and postseason credit move Bench to the top of this tight pack.
10. Bert Campaneris The other half of the World Champ's left-side infield. Bando vs. Campaneris is emblematic of some of the WAR debates we've had, but this year it seems to me that both were good - big reasons why their team won.
11. Thurman Munson
12. Joe Ferguson

Poor Ted Simmons just misses the ballot. Stargell and Jackson just didn't contribute enough defensively, IMO; I have Bobby Bonds as the top outfielder.
   53. Yardape Posted: June 18, 2012 at 02:17 PM (#4160078)
Oh, also, John Hiller had a great season, but with so many 300+ inning performances, he doesn't make my ballot. Perhaps I'm not giving him enough leverage credit, but right now that's how I see it.
   54. DL from MN Posted: June 18, 2012 at 04:25 PM (#4160276)
I already have more probable voters this year than I did last year so I will probably close the election on Wednesday unless I get a request for an extension.
   55. sunnyday2 Posted: June 18, 2012 at 10:53 PM (#4160703)
Hey DL,

Re. FZ. Personally I enjoy his instrumental music best. The Grand Wazoo and Blessed Relief from '73s The Grand Wazoo are terrific. Wazoo a driving horn riff-based bit of fusion with a great great guitar solo. Blessed Relief a nice soft piece. 2 totally different slices of FZ.

The 3rd instrumental pc highly recommended is Watermelon in Easter Hay from Joe's Garage Vol 2 & 3 in 1979. It's a slow bluesy pc. Dweezil says he will not play it because he regards it as Frank's signature pc. I think I agree with that.

OTOH if you want more compact rock 'n roll songs (with vocals) you could do worse than Overnight Sensation, also 1973. It features some of Frank's gross-out sexcapade lyrics on DinaMoe Hum and Dirty Love, and then there's I'm the Slime, Cozmik Debris, Zomby Woof and Montana. I would recommend Montana on You Tube, the version titled Frank Zappa. Montana from 1974. Insanely clever/stupid lyrics. That's Frank. Cosmik Debris is also very funny, you can find several versions on You Tube.

If those 5 tunes tweak your thingy at all, let me know and I'll pull out the next batch of hot stuff.
   56. DL from MN Posted: June 18, 2012 at 11:18 PM (#4160717)
I actually have Hot Rats and Freak Out! but I never know where to go next. He put out so much stuff, it was very eclectic and not written to be purposefully catchy. I enjoy Zappa when I listen to it but can't ever seem to remember it well enough to want to put it on again. Not really "earworm" music.
   57. DL from MN Posted: June 19, 2012 at 01:24 PM (#4161107)
Yardape - I have Blyleven close to Seaver until I add Seaver's postseason run. Seems like you're including postseason credit.
   58. sunnyday2 Posted: June 19, 2012 at 02:24 PM (#4161173)
DL, well, you've got the 2 sides of FZ covered. If you're in a Hot Rats sort of mood, Grand Wazoo is good. If Freak Out, then Overnight Sensation. Or like I say check out You Tube. My top rock n roll artists of all-time: 5. Pink Floyd, 4. Springsteen, 3. Dylan, 2. Beatles, 1. Zappa.
   59. DL from MN Posted: June 20, 2012 at 01:30 PM (#4162049)
fra paolo - I'll move the ballot if you don't check in today. I'll also give away the #1 slot in the balloting after it ends.
   60. Chris Fluit Posted: June 20, 2012 at 01:55 PM (#4162068)
What about Yardape? Does he need to do it himself, or at least make a specific request to have it done for him?
   61. DL from MN Posted: June 20, 2012 at 02:05 PM (#4162073)
I'll move Yardape's also but assumed he would do it himself.
   62. Yardape Posted: June 20, 2012 at 02:52 PM (#4162107)
I was going to do it myself as well, just waiting to the last minute as usual.
   63. DL from MN Posted: June 20, 2012 at 04:31 PM (#4162185)
I have Ken Singleton and Bill Lee as the best players to not get a vote.
   64. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: June 20, 2012 at 06:50 PM (#4162265)
I have Ken Singleton and Bill Lee as the best players to not get a vote.


I'll go with Ted Simmons and Amos Otis.
   65. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: June 20, 2012 at 07:52 PM (#4162329)
Yeah, but which is the best band not to be mentioned in this thread? I'd go with The Band, maybe.
   66. DL from MN Posted: June 20, 2012 at 11:12 PM (#4162498)
Best band not mentioned in the thread? Stevie Wonder. McCartney and Wings had an album that year too. Marvin Gaye put out "Let's Get it On".

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